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December 30, 2016

Drivers of Inflation Compensation: Evidence from Inflation Swaps in Advanced Economies

Marius Rodriguez and Emre Yoldas

In this note, we provide a comparative analysis of inflation swaps for three advanced economies: the United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom.

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Pen with charts
December 30, 2016

"Low-For-Long" Interest Rates and Portfolio Shifts in Advanced Foreign Economies

John Ammer, Alexandra Tabova, and Caleb Wroblewski

For the past several years, interest rates in many advanced economies have been at historic lows. Although low interest rates have helped support recovery in these economies, persistently low rates have also raised concerns about increased incentives for risk-taking by investors to achieve higher yields.

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Globe with charts
November 23, 2016

Measuring Cross Country Monetary Policy Uncertainty

Lucas Husted, John Rogers, and Bo Sun

In previous work, we constructed a news-based index of U.S. monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) that captures the degree of uncertainty the public perceives about Federal Reserve policy actions and their consequences (Husted, Rogers, and Sun, 2016a). In this note, we extend that work to Canada, the Euro Area, Japan, and United Kindgom.

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Globe with charts
November 10, 2016

Causes of the Global Trade Slowdown

Logan Lewis and Ryan Monarch

This note analyzes the striking slowdown in world trade in recent years. After documenting key features of this slowdown, we assess its causes, including to what extent it reflects recent cyclical weakness in global growth versus underlying long-term structural shifts in the world economy.

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Cargo containers
November 7, 2016

What's Driving the Recent Slump in U.S. Imports?

Mary Amiti, Tyler Bodine-Smith, Colin Hottman, and Logan Lewis

In this post, we explore what has been driving the recent slump in U.S. imports of non-oil goods.

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Board building
October 18, 2016

Emerging Market Capital Flows and U.S. Monetary Policy

John Clark, Nathan Converse, Brahima Coulibaly, and Steve Kamin

The years 2009-2011, immediately following the global financial crisis (GFC), were marked by a surge in capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) coupled with the aggressive loosening of monetary policy in advanced economies. These simultaneous developments led many observers to conclude that the highly accommodative policies of the Federal Reserve and other advanced-economy central banks were what triggered the wave of capital flows toward EMEs.

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A globe in front of a chart
September 28, 2016

The Effects of Demographic Change on GDP Growth in OECD Economies

Jinill Kim

There has been a downward trend in economic growth in a number of advanced economies over the past few decades. This note assesses how much of this growth slowdown can be accounted for by demographic changes.

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Board building
April 11, 2016

Measuring Monetary Policy Uncertainty: The Federal Reserve, January 1985-January 2016

Lucas Husted, John Rogers, and Bo Sun

We construct a news-based index of monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) to capture the degree of uncertainty the public perceives about Federal Reserve policy actions and their consequences.

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Financial paperwork
April 11, 2016

"Low-for-long" interest rates and net interest margins of banks in Advanced Foreign Economies

Stijn Claessens, Nicholas Coleman, and Michael Donnelly

Since the global financial crisis (GFC), interest rates in many advanced economies have been low and in many cases are expected to remain low for some time.

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Oil Pump
April 6, 2016

The relationship between oil prices and inflation compensation

Alejandro Perez-Segura and Robert J Vigfusson

Noting the common decline in oil prices and long-run inflation compensation, many people have claimed that lower oil prices have contributed to the decline in inflation compensation.

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A pen rests on top of a chart
March 31, 2016

Foreign Competition and Domestic Jobs: Evidence from the U.S. Trade Adjustment Assistance

Illenin O. Kondo

Using data on the certified petitions for U.S. Trade Adjustment Assistance, I document that international trade unevenly affects reallocation and employment across U.S. states.

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Charts on a computer screen
February 12, 2016

Predicting Fed Forecasts

Neil R. Ericsson

Monetary policy decisions by the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have attracted considerable attention in recent years, especially with quantitative easing through large-scale asset purchases, the introduction of forward guidance, and December's "lift-off" after seven years of a near-zero federal funds rate.

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Globe with bar chart
February 8, 2016

The Dollar in the U.S. International Transactions (USIT) Model

Joseph Gruber, Andrew McCallum, and Robert Vigfusson

The dollar's 20 percent climb against a broad index of foreign currencies since the middle of 2014 has led to an increased focus on how dollar fluctuations affect the U.S. economy.

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Globe in front of a chart
February 8, 2016

International Spillovers of Monetary Policy

John Ammer, Michiel De Pooter, Christopher Erceg, and Steven Kamin

International monetary policy spillovers have been the subject of much economic debate since at least the early interwar period, and formal modeling of monetary policy in an open economy dates back to the pioneering analyses of Mundell (1963) and Fleming (1962).

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Globe in front of a chart
February 2, 2016

The Rise of Exporting by U.S. Firms

William F. Lincoln and Andrew H. McCallum

Over the last few decades global trade has expanded significantly, both in terms of the volume of trade as well as the number of varieties of goods traded across countries.

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Disclaimer: IFDP Notes are articles in which Board economists offer their own views and present analysis on a range of topics in economics and finance. These articles are shorter and less technically oriented than IFDP Working Papers.

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Last update: December 30, 2016