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December 2011 Tealbook A Tables and Charts


International Economic Developments and Outlook

Recent Foreign Indicators

Figure: Nominal Exports

Line chart, by index where January 2007 = 100, 2007 to 2011. There is a horizontal line at 100. There are three series, Foreign, AFE, and EME. Foreign begins in early 2007 at about 100 and generally increases to about 133 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to about 85 by early 2009 and then generally increases to about 140 by late 2011. AFE begins in early 2007 at about 100 and generally increases to about 130 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to about 81 by early 2009 and then generally increases to about 127 by late 2011. EME begins in early 2007 at about 100 and generally increases to about 134 by mid-2008. By early 2009 it has generally decreased to about 88 and by early 2011 it has generally increased to about 160. It then generally decreases to about 153 by late 2011.

Note: EME excludes Venezuela.

Figure: Industrial Production

Line chart, by index where January 2007 = 100, 2007 to 2011. There is a horizontal line at 100. There are three series, Foreign, AFE and EME. Foreign begins in early 2007 at about 100 and generally increases to about 103.5 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to about 90 by early 2009 and then generally increases to about 107 by late 2011. AFE begins in early 2007 at about 100 and generally increases to about 101 by mid-2007. It then generally decreases to about 84 by early 2009 and then generally increases to about 95.5 by late 2011. EME begins in early 2007 at about 100 and generally increases to about 109 by early 2008. It then generally decreases to about 95 by early 2009 and then generally increases to about 122 by late 2011.

Note: AFE excludes Australia and Switzerland. EME excludes Colombia, Hong Kong, Philippines, and Venezuela.

Figure: Retail Sales

Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 2007 to 2011. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are three series, Foreign, AFE and EME. Foreign begins in early 2007 at about 4.5. From early 2007 to early 2008 it fluctuates between about 4 and 5.3. It then generally decreases to about -2.3 by early 2009 and then generally increases to about 6.2 by early 2010. By late 2011 it has generally decreased to about 2.5. AFE begins in early 2007 at about 3.5. From early 2007 to early 2008 it fluctuates between about 2.5 and 4.5. It then generally decreases to about -4.3 by early 2009 and then generally increases to about 5.1 by early 2010. By early 2011 it has generally decreased to about -1.5 and by mid-2011 it has generally increased to about 1. It then generally decreases to about 0 by late 2011. EME begins in early 2007 at about 6 and generally increases to about 10.5 within a month or so. It then generally decreases to about 3.3 by late 2008. By early 2010 it has generally increased to about 11 and by early 2011 it has generally decreased to about 4.0. It then generally increase to about 7.5 by mid-2011 and then generally decreases to about 5.1 by late 2011.

Note: AFE excludes Australia and Switzerland. EME includes Brazil, China, Israel, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan.

Figure: Employment

Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2007 to 2011. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are three series, Foreign, AFE and EME. Foreign begins in early 2007 at about 2.1 and decreases to about 2.02 by mid-2007. It then increases to about 2.3 by late 2007 and then generally decreases to about -1.25 by mid-2009. By mid-2011 it has generally increased to about 1.6. AFE begins in early 2007 at about 1.95 and generally decreases to about 1.8 by mid-2007. It generally increases to about 1.95 by late 2007. It then generally decreases to about -1.8 by mid-2009 and then generally increases to about 1.0 by mid-2011. EME begins in early 2007 at about 2.9 and generally increases to about 3.3 by late 2007. It then generally decreases to about 0.4 by mid-2009 and then generally increases to about 2.98 by mid-2011.

Note: EME excludes Argentina and Mexico.

Figure: Consumer Prices: Advanced Foreign Economies

Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 2007 to 2011. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Headline and Core. Headline begins in early 2007 at about 1.3 and generally increases to about 3.5 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to about -0.95 by mid-2009. By late 2011 it has generally increased to about 2.5. Core begins in early 2007 at about 1.28 and generally increases to about 1.4 by mid-2007. It then generally decreases to about 0.95 by early 2008 and then generally increases to about 1.3 by late 2008. By mid-2010 it has generally decreased to about 0.6 and by late 2011 it has generally increased to about 1.25.

Note: Excludes Australia, Sweden, and Switzerland. Core is a staff calculation that excludes all food and energy.

Source: Haver Analytics and CEIC.

Figure: Consumer Prices: Emerging Market Economies

Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 2007 to 2011. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are three series, Headline, Excluding food -- East Asia*, and Excluding food -- Latin America. Headline begins in early 2007 at about 2.9. It then generally increases to about 6.8 by mid-2008 and then generally decreases to about 0.6 by mid-2009. By late 2011 it has generally increased to about 4.7. Excluding food -- East Asia begins in early 2007 at about 1.3. It then generally increases to about 4.1 by mid-2008 and then generally decreases to about -2.1 by mid-2009. By late 2011 it has generally increased to about 2.2. Excluding food -- Latin America begins in early 2007 at about 3.6 and then generally decreases to about 3.2 within a few months. It then generally increases to about 5.8 by late 2008 and then generally decreases to about 3.4 by late 2009. By early 2010 it has generally increased to about 4.6 and by late 2011 it has generally decreased to about 3.3.


The Foreign Outlook

(Percent change, annual rate)
2010 2011 2012 2013
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Real GDP
Total foreign 4.3 3.9 2.4 3.6 2.3 2.5 3.0
Previous Tealbook 4.3 4.0 2.3 3.6 2.8 3.0 3.4
Advanced foreign economies 2.7 2.2 .1 2.7 1.0 .8 1.6
Previous Tealbook 2.7 2.2 .1 2.3 1.5 1.6 2.1
Emerging market economies 6.1 5.7 5.0 4.7 3.7 4.4 4.6
Previous Tealbook 6.1 6.0 4.7 4.9 4.2 4.5 4.8
Consumer Prices
Total foreign 3.2 4.3 3.2 3.1 3.5 2.3 2.3
Previous Tealbook 3.2 4.3 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.4
Advanced foreign economies 1.7 3.2 2.1 1.1 2.9 1.2 1.1
Previous Tealbook 1.7 3.2 2.1 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.5
Emerging market economies 4.3 5.1 4.1 4.6 3.9 3.2 3.2
Previous Tealbook 4.4 5.1 4.0 4.7 3.6 3.2 3.2

Note: Annualized percent change from final quarter of preceding period to final quarter of period indicated.

Figure: Real GDP [Total Foreign]

Line chart, by percent change, 2008 to 2013. Data are annual rate. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in early 2008 at about 3 and generally decreases to about -9.8 by early 2009. It then generally increases to about 5.5 by late 2009 and then generally decreases to about 2 by late 2011. By the end of 2013 it has generally increased to about 3.5. Previous Tealbook follows the Current Tealbook series almost exactly except that it decreases to about 3 by late 2011 and then increases to about 3.7 by the end of 2013.

Figure: Real GDP [Emerging Market Economies and Advanced Foreign Economies]

Line chart, by percent change, 2008 to 2013. Data are annual rate. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are four series, Advanced Foreign Economies Current Tealbook, Advanced Foreign Economies Previous Tealbook, Emerging Market Economies Current Tealbook and Emerging Market Economies Previous Tealbook. Advanced Foreign Economies Current Tealbook begins in early 2008 at about 1 and generally decreases to about -9.7 by early 2009. It then generally increases to about 4.5 by early 2010 and then generally decreases to about 0 by early 2011. By mid-2011 it has generally increased to about 3 and by 2012 it has generally decreased to about 0.5. It then generally increases to about 1.7 by the end of 2013. Advanced Foreign Economies Previous Tealbook follows the Advanced Foreign Economies Current Tealbook series almost exactly until mid-2011 when it generally increases to about 2. It then generally decreases to about 2.5 by 2012 and then generally increases to about 2 by the end of 2013. Emerging Market Economies Current Tealbook begins in early 2008 at about 5.2 and generally decreases to about -9.7 by early 2009. By mid-2009 it has generally increased to about 10 and by late 2011 it has generally decreased to about 3.5. It then generally increases to about 4.8 by the end of 2013. Emerging Market Economies Previous Tealbook follows the Emerging Market Economies Current Tealbook series almost exactly until early 2011. By late 2011 it has generally decreased to about 4.5 and by the end of 2013 it has generally increased to about 4.9.

Figure: Consumer Prices [Total Foreign]

Line chart, by percent change, 2008 to 2013. Data are annual rate. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in early 2008 at about 5. It then generally decreases to about -1 by late 2008 and then generally increases to about 3.3 by early 2010. By mid-2010 it has generally decreased to about 1.8 and by late 2010 it has generally increased to about 5.2. It then generally decreases to about 2.2 by the end of 2013. Previous Tealbook follows Current Tealbook almost exactly until mid-2011. By the end of 2013 it has generally decreased to about 2.5.

Figure: Consumer Prices [Emerging Market Economies and Advanced Foreign Economies]

Line chart, by percent change, 2008 to 2013. Data are annual rate. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are four series, Advanced Foreign Economies Current Tealbook, Advanced Foreign Economies Previous Tealbook, Emerging Market Economies Current Tealbook and Emerging Market Economies Previous Tealbook. Advanced Foreign Economies Current Tealbook begins in early 2008 at about 2.7 and generally increases to about 3.95 by mid-2008. It then generally decreases to about -2.2 by late 2008. It then generally increases to about 2 by early 2010 and then generally decreases to about 0.4 by mid-2010. By late 2010 it has generally increased to about 3.1 and by mid-2011 it has generally decreased to about 0.7. It then generally increases to about 3.0 by late 2011 and generally decreases to about 1.2 by the end of 2013. Advanced Foreign Economies Previous Tealbook follows the Advanced Foreign Economies Current Tealbook series almost exactly until mid-2011. By late 2011 it increases to about 1.6 and by mid-2012 it has generally decreased to about 1.0. It then generally increases to about 1.7 by the end of 2013. Emerging Market Economies Current Tealbook begins in early 2008 at about 7.1. It then generally decreases to about -0.7 by early 2009 and then generally increases to about 4.5 by early 2010. By mid-2010 it has generally decreased to about 2.7 and by late 2010 it has generally increased to about 6.7. It then generally decreases to about 3.2 by the end of 2013. Emerging Market Economies Previous Tealbook follows Emerging Market Economies Current Tealbook almost exactly.

Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2011:Q3.


Evolution of Staff's International Forecast

Figure: Total Foreign GDP

Line chart, by percent change, Q4 over Q4, January 22, 2009 to December 7, 2011. The x-axis is Tealbook publication dates. There are four series, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013. 2010 begins on January 22, 2009 at about 2.9 and generally decreases to about 2.2 by March 12, 2009. It then generally increases to about 4.3 by December 7, 2011. 2011 begins on September 16, 2009 at about 4.05 and remains relatively stable here until January 20, 2010. It then generally decreases to about 3.1 by December 8, 2010 and then generally increases to about 3.6 by June 15, 2011. By December 7, 2011 it has decreased to about 3.05. 2012 begins on September 15, 2010 at about 3.5. From September 15, 2010 to June 15, 2011 it fluctuates between about 3.5 and 3.7. It then decreases to about 2.5 by December 7, 2011. 2013 begins on September 14, 2011 at about 3.4 and decreases to about 3.0 by December 7, 2011.

Figure: Total Foreign CPI

Line chart, by percent change, Q4 over Q4, January 22, 2009 to December 7, 2011. The x-axis is Tealbook publication dates. There are four series, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013. 2010 begins on January 22, 2009 at about 2.0 and generally decreases to about 1.5 by March 12, 2009. It then generally increases to about 2.55 by April 21, 2010 and then generally decreases to about 2.15 by August 4, 2010. By December 7, 2011 it has generally increased to about 3.15. 2011 begins on September 16, 2009 at about 1.75 and generally increases to about 3.17 by April 20, 2011. It then decreases to about 3.0 by June 15, 2011 and then increases to about 3.5 by December 7, 2011. 2012 begins on September 15, 2010 at about 2.3 and generally increases to about 2.4 by August 3, 2011. It then decreases to about 2.35 by December 7, 2011. 2013 begins on September 14, 2011 at about 2.4 and increases to about 2.45 by October 26, 2011. It then decreases to about 2.25 by December 7, 2011.

Figure: U.S. Current Account Balance

Line chart, by percent of GDP, January 22, 2009 to December 7, 2011. The x-axis is Tealbook publication dates. There are four series, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013. 2010 begins on January 22, 2009 at about -3.5 and generally decreases to about -4.2 by March 12, 2009. It then generally increases to about -3 by October 29, 2009. From October 29, 2009 to September 15, 2010 it fluctuates between about -3.25 and -3. It then decreases to about -3.4 by October 27, 2010 and then generally increases to about -3 by April 20, 2011. It remains relatively stable here until December 7, 2011. 2011 begins on September 16, 2009 at about -3.05 and generally increases to about -2.95 by October 29, 2009. It then generally decreases to about -3.25 by June 16, 2010 and then generally increases to about -2.9 by August 4, 2010. By December 8, 2010 it has decreased to about -3.4 and by June 15, 2011 it has increased to about -2.5. It then decreases to about -2.8 by August 3, 2011 and then increases to about -2.65 by December 7, 2011. 2012 begins on September 15, 2010 at about -2.9 and decreases to about -3.1 by December 8, 2010. It then increases to about -2.0 by June 15, 2011 and then decreases to about -2.8 by December 7, 2011. 2013 begins on September 14, 2011 at about -2.2 and decreases to about -2.98 by December 7, 2011.


† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals.  Return to text

Last update: February 3, 2017