Accessible Material
December 2011 Tealbook A Tables and Charts†
Domestic Economic Developments and Outlook
Key Background Factors underlying the Baseline Staff Projection
Figure: Federal Funds Rate
Line chart, by percent, 2007 to 2013. Data are quarterly average. There are four series, Current Tealbook, Previous Tealbook, Market expected rate, and Market modal rate. Current Tealbook begins in 2007:Q1 at about 5.25 and generally decreases to about 0.13 by 2009:Q4. From 2009:Q4 to 2012:Q3 it fluctuates between about 0.07 and 0.18. By 2012:Q3 it is at about 0.13 and it remains constant here until 2013:Q4. Previous Tealbook follows Current Tealbook almost exactly until 2012:Q1 when it moves to 0.13. It remains constant at 0.13 until 2013:Q4. Market expected rate begins in 2011:Q4 at about 0.13 and generally decreases to about 0.05 by 2012:Q3. It then generally increases to about 0.3 by 2013:Q4. Market modal rate begins in 2011:Q4 at about 0.13 and decreases to about 0 by 2012:Q4. It then generally increases to about 0.12 by 2013:Q4.
Figure: Long-Term Interest Rates
Line chart, by percent, 2007 to 2013. Data are quarterly average. There are six series, "Current Tealbook: BBB corporate yield", "Current Tealbook: Conforming mortgage rate", "Current Tealbook: 10-year Treasury yield", "Previous Tealbook: BBB corporate yield", "Previous Tealbook: Conforming mortgage rate", and "Previous Tealbook: 10-year Treasury yield". Current Tealbook: BBB corporate yield begins in 2007 at about 6.1 and generally increases to about 9.4 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to about 4.9 by mid-2011 and then generally increases to about 5.6 by late 2013. Current Tealbook: Conforming mortgage rate begins in 2007 at about 6.2 and fluctuates but generally decreases to about 4.0 by late 2011. It then increases to about 5.2 by late 2013. Current Tealbook: 10-year Treasury yield begins in 2007 at about 4.8 and fluctuates but generally decreases to about 3.2 by early 2009. It then generally increases to about 3.9 by early 2010 and then generally decreases to about 2.9 by mid-2010. By early 2011 it has generally increased to about 3.6 and by late 2011 it has generally decreased to about 2.1. It then generally increases to about 3.7 by late 2013. Previous Tealbook: BBB corporate yield begins in 2007 at about 6.1 and generally increases to about 9.4 by late 2008. It then generally decreases to about 4.9 by mid-2011 and then generally increases to about 5.8 by late 2013. Previous Tealbook: Conforming mortgage rate begins in 2007 at about 6.2 and fluctuates but generally decreases to about 4.0 by late 2011. It then increases to about 5.4 by late 2013. Previous Tealbook: 10-year Treasury yield begins in 2007 at about 4.8 and fluctuates but generally decreases to about 3.2 by early 2009. It then generally increases to about 3.9 by early 2010 and then generally decreases to about 2.9 by mid-2010. By early 2011 it has generally increased to about 3.6 and by late 2011 it has generally decreased to about 2.15. It then generally increases to about 3.85 by late 2013.
Figure: Equity Prices
Line chart, by ratio scale where 2007:Q1 = 100, 2007 to 2013. Data are quarter-end. There are two series, Current Tealbook: Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index and Previous Tealbook: Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index. Current Tealbook: Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index begins in early 2007 at about 100 and generally increases to about 107 by mid-2007. It then generally decreases to about 56 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 85 by early 2010. By mid-2010 it has generally decreased to about 74 and by early 2011 it has generally increased to about 98. It then generally decreases to about 81 by mid-2011 and then increases to about 109 by late 2013. Previous Tealbook: Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index begins in early 2007 at about 100 and generally increases to about 107 by mid-2007. It then generally decreases to about 56 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 85 by early 2010. By mid-2010 it has generally decreased to about 74 and by early 2011 it has generally increased to about 98. It then generally decreases to about 81 by mid-2011 and then increases to about 110 by late 2013.
Figure: House Prices
Line chart, by ratio scale, 2007:Q1 = 100, 2007 to 2013. Data are quarterly. There are two series, Current Tealbook: CoreLogic index and Previous Tealbook: CoreLogic index. Current Tealbook: CoreLogic index begins in 2007 at about 100 and generally decreases to about 72.5 by early 2009. It then generally increases to about 74.8 by early 2010 and then generally decreases to about 68.3 by late 2013. Previous Tealbook: CoreLogic index begins in 2007 at about 100 and generally decreases to about 72.5 by early 2009. It then generally increases to about 74.5 by mid-2010 and then generally decreases to about 69 by late 2013.
Figure: Crude Oil Prices
Line chart, by dollars per barrel, 2007 to 2013. Data are quarterly average. There are four series, Current Tealbook: West Texas Intermediate, Current Tealbook: Imported Oil, Previous Tealbook: West Texas Intermediate and Previous Tealbook: Imported Oil. Current Tealbook: West Texas Intermediate begins in early 2007 at about 58 and generally increases to about 125 by 2008. By 2009 it has generally decreased to about 42 and by early 2011 it has generally increased to about 103. It then generally decreases to about 88 by late 2011 and then increases to about 101 by early 2012. It then decreases to about 93 by late 2013. Current Tealbook: Imported Oil begins in early 2007 at about 55 and increases to about 117 by mid-2008. It then decreases to about 41 by early 2009 and then generally increases to about 109 by mid-2011. By late 2013 it has generally decreased to about 96. Previous Tealbook: West Texas Intermediate begins in early 2007 at about 58 and generally increases to about 125 by 2008. By 2009 it has generally decreased to about 42 and by early 2011 it has generally increased to about 103. It then generally decreases to about 89 by late 2011 and then generally increases to about 96 by late 2013. Previous Tealbook: Imported Oil begins in early 2007 at about 55 and increases to about 117 by mid-2008. It then decreases to about 41 by early 2009 and then generally increases to about 109 by mid-2011. By late 2013 it has generally decreased to about 101.
Figure: Broad Real Dollar
Line chart, by index where 2007:Q1 = 100, 2007 to 2013. Data are quarterly average. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in 2007 at about 100 and generally decreases to about 89 by 2008. It then generally increases to about 101 by early 2009 and then generally decreases to about 92 by late 2009. By 2010 it has generally increased to about 94 and by mid-2011 it has generally decreased to about 85.2. It then generally increases to about 89 by late 2011 and then decreases to about 85 by late 2013. Previous Tealbook begins in 2007 at about 100 and generally decreases to about 89 by 2008. It then generally increases to about 101 by early 2009 and then generally decreases to about 92 by late 2009. By 2010 it has generally increased to about 94 and by mid-2011 it has generally decreased to about 85.2. It then generally increases to about 88 by late 2011 and then decreases to about 83 by late 2013.
Note: Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2011:Q4.
Summary of the Near-Term Outlook
Measure | 2011:Q3 | 2011:Q4 | 2012:Q1 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Previous Tealbook |
Current Tealbook |
Previous Tealbook |
Current Tealbook |
Previous Tealbook |
Current Tealbook |
|
Real GDP | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
Private domestic final purchases | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
Personal consumption expenditures | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.3 |
Residential investment | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
Business Fixed Investment | 12.8 | 15.8 | 1.3 | 3.7 | .3 | -1.2 |
Government Purchases | -1.2 | -.2 | 1.4 | -1.9 | -.8 | 1.1 |
Contributions to change in real GDP | ||||||
Inventory investment1 | -.3 | -1.5 | .4 | 1.2 | .6 | .1 |
Net exports1 | .4 | .5 | .2 | .2 | .4 | .1 |
Unemployment Rate2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 8.8 |
PCE Chain Price Index | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | .7 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Ex. food and energy | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
1. Percentage points. Return to table
2. Percent. Return to table
Recent Nonfinancial Developments (1)
Figure: Real GDP and GDI
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2003 to 2011. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Gross domestic product and Gross domestic income. Gross domestic product begins in 2003 at about 1.6 and increases to about 4.1 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about 1 by early 2007 and then increases to about 2.4 by mid-2007. By 2009 it has generally decreased to about -5.3 and by 2010 it has generally increased to about 3.5. It then decreases to about 1.5 by 2011:Q3. Gross domestic income begins in 2003 at about 1.1 and increases to about 3.8 by early 2004. From early 2004 to early 2006 it fluctuates between about 3.2 and 4.2. It then decreases to about -0.5 by late 2007 and then increases to about 0.7 by early 2008. By 2009 it has decreased to about -5.5 and by 2010 it has increased to about 4.3. It then decreases to about 1 by 2011:Q3.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Change in Private Payroll Employment
Line chart, by thousands of employees, 2003 to 2011. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Change in Private Payroll Employment and 3-month moving average. Change in Private Payroll Employment begins in early 2003 at about 40 and generally decreases to about -210 by mid-2003. It then generally increases to about 320 by early 2004. From early 2004 to early 2006 it fluctuates between about -10 and 350. It then generally decreases to about -20 by early 2006 and then generally increases to about 220 by 2007. By early 2009 it has generally decreased to about -880 and by November 2011 it has generally increased to about 130. 3-month moving average begins in early 2003 at about -40 and generally decreases to about -130 by mid-2003. By early 2006 it has generally increased to about 300 and by early 2009 it has generally decreased to about -800. It then generally increases to about 170 by November 2011.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure: Unemployment Rate
Line chart, by percent, 2003 to 2011. The series begins in early 2003 at about 5.9 and generally increases to about 6.3 by mid-2003. It then generally decreases to about 4.3 by 2007 and then generally increases to about 10.1 by 2009. By November 2011 it has generally decreased to about 8.6.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure: Manufacturing IP excluding Motor Vehicles and Parts
Line chart, by 3-month percent change, annual rate, 2003 to 2011. There is a horizontal line at zero. The series begins in early 2003 at about 0 and then generally increases to about 5 within a month or two. It then generally decreases to about -2 by mid-2003. By early 2005 it has generally increased to about 9 and by mid-2005 it has generally decreased to about -5. It then generally increases to about 12.5 by late 2005 and then generally decreases to about -0.5 by late 2006. By early 2007 it has generally increased to about 7.5 and by early 2009 it has generally decreased to about -25. It then generally increases to about 11 by early 2010 and then generally decreases to about 3.0 by October 2011.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, G.17 Statistical Release, "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization."
Recent Nonfinancial Developments (2)
Figure: Production of Light Motor Vehicles
Line chart, by millions of units, annual rate, 2003 to 2011. The series begins in 2003 at about 12.8. It then fluctuates, but generally decreases to about 3.5 by early 2009 and then fluctuates, but generally increases to about 9 by October 2011.
Source: Ward's Auto Infobank.
Figure: Sales of Light Motor Vehicles
Line chart, by millions of units, annual rate, 2003 to 2011. The series begins in early 2003 at about 16.2. From early 2003 to early 2005 it fluctuates between about 15.2 and 18.1. It then generally increases to about 20.5 by mid-2005 and then decreases to about 14.5 by late 2005. By early 2006 it has generally increased to about 18 and by early 2009 it has generally decreased to about 9.0. It then generally increases to about 14 by mid-2009 and within a month or so decreases to about 8.95. By November 2011 it has generally increased to about 13.5.
Source: Ward's Auto Infobank.
Figure: Real PCE Goods excluding Motor Vehicles
Line chart, by billions of chained (2005) dollars, 2003 to 2011. The series begins in 2003 at about 2400 and generally increases to about 2950 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about 2775 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 3060 by October 2011.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Single-Family Housing Starts
Line chart, thousands of units, annual rate, 2003 to 2011. There are two series, Starts and Adjusted permits. Starts begins in 2003 at about 1530 and generally decreases to about 1280 within a month or so. It then fluctuates, but generally increases to about 1810 by 2006 and then generally decreases to about 350 by early 2009. By early 2010 it has generally increased to about 580 and by October 2011 it has generally decreased to about 430. Adjusted permits begins in 2003 at about 1450 and generally increases to about 1840 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 350 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 575 by early 2010. By October 2011 it has generally decreased to about 430.
Note: Adjusted permits equal permits plus starts outside of permit-issuing areas.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Figure: Single-Family Home Sales
Line chart, by thousands of units, annual rate, 2003 to 2011. There are two series, New and Existing. New begins in 2003 at about 1000 and fluctuates, but generally increases to about 1400 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 300 by October 2011. Existing begins in 2003 at about 5350 and fluctuates, but generally increases to about 6350 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 4000 by late 2008 and then generally increases to about 5650 by late 2009. By mid-2010 it has generally decreased to about 3400 and by early 2011 it has generally increased to about 4750. It then generally decreases to about 4400 by October 2011.
Source: For existing, National Association of Realtors; for new, U.S. Census Bureau.
Figure: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft
Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2003 to 2011. There are two series, Orders and Shipments. Orders begins in 2003 at about 49. It then fluctuates, but generally increases to about 68.5 by early 2008 and then generally decreases to about 47 by 2009. By October 2011 it has generally increased to about 68. Shipments begins in 2003 at about 49.3 It then generally increases to about 66 by 2008 and then generally decreases to about 51.7 by 2009. By October 2011 it has generally increased to about 66.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Recent Nonfinancial Developments (3)
Figure: Nonresidential Construction Put in Place
Line chart, by billions of chained (2005) dollars, 2003 to 2011. The series begins in 2003 at about 226. It then generally increases to about 410 by late 2007. From late 2007 to late 2008 it fluctuates between about 400 and 415. It then generally decreases to about 245 by early 2011 and then generally increases to about 280 by October 2011.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Figure: Inventory Ratios excluding Motor Vehicles
Line chart, by months, 2003 to 2011. There are two series, Staff flow-of-goods system and Census book-value data. Staff flow-of-goods system begins in 2003 at about 1.6 and generally decreases to about 1.48 by late 2007. It then generally increases to about 1.63 by early 2009 and then generally decreases to about 1.5 by October 2011. Census book-value data begins in 2003 at about 1.3 and generally decreases to about 1.18 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 1.26 by 2006 and then generally decreases to about 1.18 by 2008. By early 2009 it has generally increased to about 1.41 and by September 2011 it has generally decreased to about 1.22.
Note: Flow-of-goods system covers total industry ex. motor vehicles and parts, and inventories are relative to consumption. Census data cover manufacturing and trade ex. motor vehicles and parts, and inventories are relative to sales.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; staff calculation.
Figure: Defense Spending
Line chart, by billions of chained (2005) dollars, 2003 to 2011. There are two series, "Unified" in which the data are monthly and "NIPA" in which the data are quarterly. Unified begins in 2003 at about 450 and generally increases to about 555 by 2004. From 2004 to early 2007 it fluctuates between about 465 and 575. It then generally increases to about 690 by late 2010 and then generally decreases to about 575 by October 2011. NIPA begins in 2003 at about 450 and generally increases to about 525 by 2004. From 2004 to early 2007 it fluctuates between about 505 and 535. It then generally increases to about 650 by mid-2010 and then generally decreases to about 610 by early 2011. It then generally increases to about 635 by 2011:Q3.
Note: The unified series is seasonally adjusted and deflated by BEA prices. The NIPA series excludes the consumption of fixed capital.
Source: Monthly Treasury Statement; U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Exports and Non-Oil Imports
Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2003 to 2011. There are two series, Non-oil imports and Exports. Non-oil imports begins in early 2003 at about 112. It then generally increases to about 180 by 2008 and then generally decreases to about 132 by 2009. By September 2011 it has generally increased to about 187. Exports begins in early 2003 at about 81. It then generally increases to about 165 by 2008 and then generally decreases to about 122 by 2009. By September 2011 it has generally increased to about 180.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Census Bureau.
Figure: Total PCE Prices
Line chart, by percent, 2003 to 2011. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, 12-month change and 3-month change. 12-month change begins in 2003 at about 2.3 and generally decreases to about 1.8 by mid-2003. It then generally increases to about 4 by 2005 and then generally decreases to about 1.5 by 2006. By 2008 it has generally increased to about 4.5 and by 2009 it has generally decreased to about -1. It then generally increases to about 2.5 by early 2010 and then generally decreases to about 1.0 by late 2010. By October 2011 it has generally increased to about 2.7. 3-month change begins in early 2003 at about 2. It then generally increases to about 4 by early 2002 and then generally decreases to about -1 by mid-2003. By late 2003 it has generally increased to about 4. From late 2003 to mid-2005 it fluctuates between about 1.0 and 4.0. It then generally increases to about 8.5 by mid-2005 and then generally decreases to about -1 by late 2005. By mid-2008 it has generally increased to about 6.5 and by late 2008 it has generally decreased to about -9.0. It then generally increases to about 4.0 by 2009 and then generally decreases to about -1.2 by 2010. By early 2011 it has generally increased to about 4.7 and by October 2011 it has generally decreased to about 1.7.
Note: 3-month changes are at an annual rate.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy
Line chart, by percent, 2003 to 2011. There are two series, 12-month change and 3-month change. 12-month change begins in early 2003 at about 1.7 and generally decreases to about 1.3 by 2003. By mid-2008 it has generally increased to about 2.5 and by 2009 it has generally decreased to about 1.3. It then generally increases to about 1.8 by early 2010 and then generally decreases to about 0.9 by late 2010. By October 2011 it generally increases to about 1.65. 3-month change begins in early 2003 at about 0.9. It then generally increases to about 3.45 by 2005. From 2005 to early 2008 it fluctuates between about 1 and 3.45. It then generally decreases to about 0.3 by late 2008 and then generally increases to about 2.6 by 2009. By late 2010 it has generally decreased to about 0.5 and by mid-2011 it has increased to about 2.5. It then decreases to about 1 by October 2011.
Note: 3-month changes are at an annual rate.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Projections of Real GDP and Related Components
Measure | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
H1 | H2 | ||||
Real GDP | 3.1 | .8 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
Previous Tealbook | 3.1 | .8 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.2 |
Final sales | 2.4 | .8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
Previous Tealbook | 2.4 | .8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
Personal consumption expenditures | 3.0 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
Previous Tealbook | 3.0 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
Residential investment | -6.3 | .8 | 2.4 | 5.8 | 7.9 |
Previous Tealbook | -6.3 | .8 | 2.2 | 6.2 | 9.2 |
Nonresidential structures | -1.8 | 2.5 | 10.2 | -1.1 | .9 |
Previous Tealbook | -1.8 | 2.5 | 4.0 | -3.4 | .3 |
Equipment and software | 16.6 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 6.4 |
Previous Tealbook | 16.6 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 6.7 |
Federal purchases | 2.9 | -3.9 | -.8 | .4 | -3.9 |
Previous Tealbook | 2.9 | -3.9 | 1.1 | -.7 | -4.1 |
State and local purchases | -1.7 | -3.1 | -1.2 | -.4 | .8 |
Previous Tealbook | -1.7 | -3.1 | -.7 | -.4 | .8 |
Exports | 8.8 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 5.5 |
Previous Tealbook | 8.8 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.7 |
Imports | 10.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 4.2 |
Previous Tealbook | 10.7 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.9 |
Contributions to change in real GDP (percentage points) |
|||||
Inventory change | .7 | .0 | -.2 | .3 | .3 |
Previous Tealbook | .7 | .0 | .1 | .2 | .4 |
Net exports | -.6 | -.1 | .3 | .0 | .0 |
Previous Tealbook | -.6 | -.1 | .3 | .3 | .1 |
Figure: Real GDP
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 1982 to 2013. There are two series, Current and Previous Tealbook. Current begins in early 1982 at about -2.3. By 1984 it has generally increased to about 8.5 and by 1991 it has generally decreased to about -1.2. It then generally increases to about 4.2 by late 1992. From late 1992 to early 2000 it fluctuates between about 2 and 5.7. It then generally decreases to about 0.2 by 2001 and then generally increases to about 4.1 by 2004. By 2009 it has generally decreased to about -5.4 and by 2010 it generally increases to about 3.8. It then generally decreases to about 1.5 by 2011 and then generally increases to about 2.3 by late 2013. Previous Tealbook follows the Current series almost exactly until 2011 when it begins decreasing at a slower rate. By late 2011 it has generally decreased to about 1.8 and by late 2013 it has generally increased to about 3.2.
Note: The gray shaded bars indicate a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009. Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2011:Q3.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Components of Final Demand
Figure: Personal Consumption Expenditures
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2007 to 2013. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current and Previous Tealbook. Current begins in 2007:Q1 at about 2.75 and generally decreases to about -3.1 by 2009:Q2. It then generally increases to about 3.0 by 2010:Q4 and then generally decreases to about 1.8 by 2011:Q4. By 2013:Q4 it has generally increased to about 2.25. Previous Tealbook follows the Current series almost exactly until 2011 when it begins decreasing at a different rate. By 2012:Q1 it has generally decreased to about 1.7 and by 2013:Q4 it has increased to about 3.1.
Figure: Residential Investment
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2007 to 2013. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current and Previous Tealbook. Current begins in 2007:Q1 at about -18.5 and generally decreases to about -28 by 2009:Q2. It then generally increases to about 5 by 2010:Q2 and then generally decreases to about -8.5 by 2010:Q3. By 2011:Q1 it has generally increased to about -2.5 and by 2011:Q2 it has generally decreased to about -7.5. It then generally increases to about 8 by 2013:Q4. Previous Tealbook follows the Current Tealbook series almost exactly until 2012:Q3 when it begins increasing at a different rate. By 2013:Q4 it has increased to about 9.8.
Figure: Equipment and Software
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2007 to 2013. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current and Previous Tealbook. Current begins in 2007:Q1 at about 3 and generally increases to about 4.5 by 2007:Q4. It then generally decreases to about -21 by 2009:Q1. By 2010:Q3 it has generally increased to about 17.5 and by 2012:Q3 it has generally decreased to about 2. It then generally increases to about 6 by 2013:Q4. Previous Tealbook begins in 2007:Q1 at about 3 and generally increases to about 4.5 by 2007:Q4. It then generally decreases to about -21 by 2009:Q1. By 2010:Q3 it has generally increased to about 17.5 and by 2012:Q3 it has generally decreased to about 5.0. It then generally increases to about 5.65 by 2013:Q4.
Figure: Nonresidential Structures
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2007 to 2013. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current and Previous Tealbook. Current begins in 2007:Q1 at about 11 and generally increases to about 17.5 by 2007:Q4. By 2009:Q4 it has generally decreased to about -29.8 and by 2012:Q1 it has generally increased to about 9.5. It then generally decreases to about -1 by 2012:Q4 and then generally increases to about 1 by 2013:Q4. Previous Tealbook begins in 2007:Q1 at about 11 and generally increases to about 17.5 by 2007:Q4. By 2009:Q4 it has generally decreased to about -29.8 and by 2011:Q3 it has generally increased to about 7. It then generally decreases to about 4 by 2011:Q4 and then generally increases to about 6 by 2012:Q1. By 2012:Q3 it has generally decreased to about -4 and by 2013:Q4 it has increased to about 0.
Figure: Government Consumption & Investment
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2007 to 2013. There are two series, Current and Previous Tealbook. Current begins in 2007:Q1 at about 0.4 and generally increases to about 2.9 by 2008:Q1. By 2011:Q3 it has generally decreased to about -2.5. It then generally increases to about -0.01 by 2012:Q4 and then generally decreases to about -1.1 by 2013:Q4. Previous Tealbook begins in 2007:Q1 at about 0.4 and generally increases to about 2.9 by 2008:Q1. By 2011:Q3 it has generally decreased to about -2.7. It then generally increases to about -0.01 by 2012:Q3 and generally decreases to about -1.1 by 2013:Q4.
Figure: Exports and Imports
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2007 to 2013. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are four series, Exports Current Tealbook, Imports Current Tealbook, Exports Previous Tealbook and Imports Previous Tealbook. Exports Current Tealbook begins in 2007:Q1 at about 8 and generally increases to about 11.5 by 2008:Q2. It then generally decreases to about -14.8 by 2009:Q2 and then generally increases to about 14 by 2010:Q2. By 2013:Q4 it has generally decreased to about 5.2. Exports Previous begins in 2007:Q1 at about 8 and generally increases to about 11.5 by 2008:Q2. It then generally decreases to about -14.8 by 2009:Q2 and then generally increases to about 14 by 2010:Q2. By 2013:Q4 it has generally decreased to about 5.65. Imports Current Tealbook begins in 2007:Q1 at about 4 and generally decreases to about -19 by 2009:Q2. It then generally increases to about 17 by 2010:Q2 and then generally decreases to about 1.5 by 2011:Q3. By 2013:Q4 it has generally increased to about 4.5. Imports Previous Tealbook begins in 2007:Q1 at about 4 and generally decreases to about -19 by 2009:Q2. It then generally increases to about 17 by 2010:Q2 and then generally decreases to about 2 by 2011:Q3. By 2013:Q4 it has generally increased to about 5.
Note: Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2011:Q3.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Aspects of the Medium-Term Projection
Figure: Personal Saving Rate
Line chart, by percent, 1995 to 2013. There are two series, Current and Previous Tealbook. Current begins in 1995 at about 6.05. By 1997 it has generally decreased to about 4.4 and by 1998 it has generally increased to about 5.95. It then generally decreases to about 1.5 by late 2001 and then generally increases to about 4.1 by early 2002. By 2005 it has generally decreased to about 1.2 and by 2009 it has generally increased to about 6.3. It then generally decreases to about 4.3 by 2013. Previous Tealbook follows the Current Tealbook series almost exactly until 2010 when it begins decreasing at a slower rate. It generally decreases to about 5.1 by 2013.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Wealth-to-Income Ratio
Line chart, by ratio, 1995 to 2013. There are two series, Current and Previous Tealbook. Current begins in 1995 at about 4.88. It then generally increases to about 6.15 by 2000 and then generally decreases to about 4.97 by 2002. By 2005 it has generally increased to about 6.45 and by 2009 it has generally decreased to about 4.63. It then generally increases to about 5.25 by early 2011 and then generally decreases to about 4.9 by late 2011. By late 2013 it has generally increased to about 5.81. Previous Tealbook begins in 1995 at about 4.88. It then generally increases to about 6.15 by 2000 and then generally decreases to about 4.97 by 2002. By 2005 it has generally increased to about 6.4 and by 2009 it has generally decreased to about 4.57. It then generally increases to about 5.18 by early 2011 and then generally decreases to about 4.8 by late 2011. It then generally increases to about 4.97 by late 2013.
Note: Household net worth as a ratio to disposable personal income.
Source: For net worth, Federal Reserve Board, flow of funds data; for income, Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Single-Family Housing Starts
Line chart, by millions of units, 1995 to 2013. There are two series, Current and Previous Tealbook. Current begins in 1995 at about 1.05. It then generally increases to about 1.75 by 2006 and then generally decreases to about 0.33 by 2009. By early 2010 it has generally increased to about 0.52 and by 2011 it has generally decreased to about 0.40. It then generally increases to about 0.55 by late 2013. Previous Tealbook follows the Current Tealbook series almost exactly.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Figure: Equipment and Software Spending
Line chart, by share of nominal GDP, 1995 to 2013. There are two series, Current and Previous Tealbook. Current begins in 1995 at about 8.15. It then generally increases to about 9.6 by 2000 and then generally decreases to about 7.5 by 2004. By 2006 it has generally increased to about 8.03 and by 2009 it has generally decreased to about 6.45. It then generally increases to about 7.6 by the end of 2013. Previous Tealbook follows the Current Tealbook series almost exactly except that it ends in late 2013 at about 7.65.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Federal Surplus/Deficit
Line chart, by share of nominal GDP, 1995 to 2013. Data is 4-quarter moving average. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current and Previous Tealbook. Current begins in 1995 at about -2.7. It then generally increases to about 2.5 by 2000 and then generally decreases to about -3.8 by 2004. By 2007 it has generally increased to about -1.2 and by 2009 it has generally decreased to about -10.7. It has generally increased to about -5.4 by the end of 2013. Previous Tealbook follows the Current Tealbook series almost exactly except that it ends in late 2013 at about -5.1.
Source: Monthly Treasury Statement.
Figure: Current Account Surplus/Deficit
Line chart, by share of nominal GDP, 1995 to 2013. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current and Previous Tealbook. Current begins in early 1995 at about -1.75 and generally increases to about -1.1 by late 1995. It then generally decreases to about -6.7 by 2005 and then generally increases to about -2.35 by 2009. By 2010 it has generally decreased to about -3.3 and by 2012 it has generally increased to about -2.6. It then generally decreases to about -2.98 by the end of 2013. Previous Tealbook follows the Current Tealbook series almost exactly until 2011 when it begins increasing at a different rate. By the end of 2013 it has increased to about -2.45.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Note: The gray shaded bars indicate a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009. Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2011:Q3.
Decomposition of Potential GDP
Measure | 1974-1995 | 1996-2000 | 2001-2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Potential Real GDP | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
Previous Tealbook | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
Selected contributions1 | |||||||
Structural labor productivity | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
Capital deepening | .7 | 1.5 | .8 | .4 | .5 | .5 | .7 |
Previous Tealbook | .7 | 1.5 | .8 | .4 | .6 | .6 | .8 |
Multifactor productivity | .5 | .9 | 1.4 | .9 | .8 | .9 | .9 |
Previous Tealbook | .5 | .9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Structural hours | 1.5 | 1.0 | .6 | .5 | .6 | .7 | .6 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.5 | 1.0 | .6 | .5 | .6 | .7 | .6 |
Labor force participation | .4 | .0 | -.3 | -.4 | -.3 | -.2 | -.3 |
Previous Tealbook | .4 | .0 | -.3 | -.4 | -.3 | -.2 | -.3 |
Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. For multiyear periods, the percent change is the annual average from Q4 of the year preceding the first year shown to Q4 of the last year shown.
1. Percentage points. Return to table
Figure: Potential and Actual Real GDP
Line chart, by billions of chained (2005) dollars, 2001 to 2013. There are two series, Potential GDP and Actual Real GDP. Potential GDP begins in 2001 at about 11200 and increases to about 14800 by the end of 2013. Actual Real GDP begins in 2001 at about 11300 and generally increases to about 13500 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about 12650 by 2009. By the end of 2013 it has generally increased to about 14050.
Note: Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2011:Q3.
Figure: Structural and Actual Labor Productivity (Nonfarm Business Sector)
Line chart, by chained (2005) dollars per hour, 2001 to 2013. There are two series, Structural labor productivity and Actual labor productivity. Structural labor productivity begins in 2001 at about 43.9 and generally increases to about 57.5 by the end of 2013. Actual labor productivity begins in 2001 at about 43.5 and generally increases to about 52 by 2007. It then generally decreases to about 51.3 by 2008 and then generally increases to about 57.5 by the end of 2013.
Note: Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2011:Q3.
Figure: Structural and Actual Labor Force Participation Rate
Line chart, by percent, 2001 to 2013. There are two series, Structural Labor Force Participation Rate and Actual Labor Force Participation Rate. Structural Labor Force Participation Rate begins in 2001 at about 66.75 and generally decreases to about 64.45 by the end of 2013. Actual Labor Force Participation Rate begins in 2001 at about 67.1 and generally decreases to about 65.8 by 2005. It then generally increases to about 66.3 by 2007 and then generally decreases to about 64 by the end of 2013.
Note: Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2011:Q4.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis; and staff assumptions.
The Outlook for the Labor Market and Resource Utilization
Measure | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
H1 | H2 | ||||
Output per hour, nonfarm business | 2.5 | -.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Previous Tealbook | 2.5 | -.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
Nonfarm private employment1 | 98 | 165 | 145 | 168 | 173 |
Previous Tealbook | 98 | 165 | 119 | 174 | 220 |
Labor force participation rate2 | 64.5 | 64.1 | 64.1 | 64.1 | 64.0 |
Previous Tealbook | 64.5 | 64.1 | 64.1 | 64.0 | 64.1 |
Civilian unemployment rate2 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 8.2 |
Previous Tealbook | 9.6 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 8.1 |
Memo: | |||||
GDP gap3 | -5.4 | -5.8 | -5.5 | -5.2 | -4.8 |
Previous Tealbook | -5.6 | -6.2 | -6.0 | -5.6 | -4.7 |
1. Thousands, average monthly changes. Return to table
2. Percent, average for the final quarter in the period. Return to table
3. Percent difference between actual and potential GDP in the final quarter of the period indicated. A negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Return to table
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; staff assumptions.
Figure: Nonfarm Private Employment (Average Monthly Changes)
Line chart, by thousands, 1995 to 2013. There is a shaded bar from 2011:Q4 to 2013:Q4 that represents the forecast period. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current and Previous Tealbook. Current begins in 1995 at about 220. From 1995 to 1999 it fluctuates between about 100 and 320. It then generally decreases to about -350 by 2001 and then generally increases to about 320 by 2006. By 2009 it has generally decreased to about -820 and by the end of 2013 it has generally increased to about 195. Previous Tealbook follows the Current Tealbook series almost exactly until 2011. By the end of 2013 it has generally increased to about 220.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure: Unemployment Rate
Line chart, by percent, 1995 to 2013. There is a shaded bar from 2011:Q4 to 2013:Q4 that represents the forecast period. There are four series, Current Tealbook, Previous Tealbook, NAIRU, and NAIRU with EEB adjustment. Current Tealbook begins in early 1995 at about 5.5 and generally increases to about 5.75 by mid-1995. It then generally decreases to about 3.95 by 2000 and then generally increases to about 6.2 by 2003. By 2007 it has generally decreased to about 4.5 and by 2009 it has generally increased to about 10. It then generally decreases to about 8.1 by the end of 2013. Previous Tealbook follows Current Tealbook exactly except that it ends in late 2013 at about 8.05. NAIRU begins in 1995 at about 5.0 and remains constant at 5.0 until 2008. It then generally increases to about 6 by 2009 and remains constant here until the end of 2013. NAIRU with EEB adjustment begins in 1995 at about 5.01 and remains relatively constant at 5 until 2001. It then increases to about 5.1 by 2002. It then generally decreases to about 5 by 2004 and remains constant here until 2008. By 2010 it has increased to about 6.85 and by the end of 2013 it has generally decreased to about 6.0.
Note: The EEB adjustment is the staff estimate of the effect of extended and emergency unemployment compensation programs on the NAIRU.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; staff assumptions.
Figure: GDP Gap
Line chart, by percent, 1995 to 2013. There is a shaded bar from 2011:Q3 to 2013:Q4 that represents the forecast period. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current and Previous Tealbook. Current begins in 1995 at about -1.4. It then generally increases to about 3.5 by 2000 and then generally decreases to about -2.7 by 2003. By 2006 it has generally increased to about 0.7 and by 2009 it has generally decreased to about -7.8. It then generally increases to about -4.7 by the end of 2013. Previous Tealbook follows Current Tealbook exactly until 2010. By the end of 2013 it has generally increased to about -4.6.
Note: The GDP gap is the percent difference between actual and potential GDP; a negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; staff assumptions.
Figure: Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate
Line chart, by percent, 1995 to 2013. There is a shaded bar from 2011:Q4 to 2013:Q4 that represents the forecast period. There is a horizontal line at about 79 which represents the average rate from 1972 to 2010. There are two series, Current and Previous Tealbook. Current begins in 1995 at about 84.3 and generally decreases to about 82 by 1996. It then generally increases to about 84 by 1997 and then generally decreases to about 71.5 by 2001. By 2007 it has generally increased to about 79.7 and by 2009 it has generally decreased to about 64.5. It then generally increases to about 77.3 by the end of 2013. Previous Tealbook follows the Current Tealbook series almost exactly until 2010 when it begins increasing at a faster rate. By the end of 2013 it has generally increased to about 78.5.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, G.17 Statistical Release, "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization."
Note: The gray shaded bars indicate a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.
[Box:] Small and New Business Employment and Financing
Figure: Private Employment by Firm Size
Line chart, by millions, 2005 to 2011. There are two series, Large and Small. Large begins in 2005 at about 55.5 and increases to about 58.5 by 2008. It then decreases to about 54.1 by 2010 and then increases to about 55.5 by 2011. Small begins in 2005 at about 20.4 and increases to about 20.85 by 2007. It then decreases to about 19.4 by 2010 and then increases to about 19.45 by 2011.
Note: Small is firms with 1-19 employees; large is 250 and above. Data are for March each year. The shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: December 2007-June 2009.
Source: Staff calculations using BLS data.
Figure: Amount Outstanding on Loans to Businesses by Original Loan Size
Line chart, by billions of dollars, ratio scale, 2005 to 2011. There are two series, Larger (Over $1m) and Small ($1m or less). Larger begins in 2005 at about 1000 and increases to about 1500 by 2009. It then decreases to about 1390 by 2010 and then increases to about 1500 by 2011:Q3. Small begins in 2005 at about 560 and increases to about 675 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about 560 by 2011:Q3.
Note: In March 2010 data reporting frequency changed from annual to quarterly. Sum of C&I and CRE loans to businesses by domestic banks. The shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: December 2007-June 2009.
Source: Staff calculations of the Call Reports.
Figure: Small Business Credit Conditions
Line chart, by percent, 2005 to 2011. Data are 3-month moving averages. There are two series, Respondents with borrowing needs and Credit more difficult to obtain than 3 months ago, net. Respondents with borrowing needs begins in 2005:Q1 at about 41.5 and increases to about 44.5 by 2005:Q2. It then decreases to about 39 by 2005:Q3 and generally increases to about 43 by 2006:Q3. By 2011:Q3 it has fluctuated, but decreased to about 34.98 and by November 2011 it has generally increased to about 37. Credit more difficult to obtain than 3 months ago, net, begins in 2005:Q1 at about 3.9 and generally increases to about 15 by 2009:Q2. It then generally decreases to about 8.7 by 2011:Q2 and then generally increases to about 11.6 by early 2011:Q4. It then decreases to about 10.2 by November 2011.
Note: Respondents with borrowing needs is not seasonally adjusted. Credit more difficult to obtain than 3 months ago, net, is for borrowers who sought credit in the past three months, and is seasonally adjusted. The shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: December 2007-June 2009.
Source: National Federation of Independent Business.
Figure: Net Job Creation Rate by Firm Age
Line chart, by percent, 2004 to 2009. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Young (0-2 years old) and Older (3+ years old). Young begins in 2004 at about 37.5 and increases to about 41 by 2006. By 2007 it has decreased to about 31 where it remains until 2008. It then decreases to about 24 by 2009. Older begins in 2004 at about -0.3 and remains relatively stable here until 2005. It then increases to about 0.4 by 2006 and then decreases to about -0.8 by 2007. It remains constant here until 2008 and then decreases to about -7 by 2009.
Note: Job creation less job destruction as a percent of the average of current and previous year's employment. Data are for March each year. The shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: December 2007-June 2009.
Source: Staff calculations using Census Bureau data.
How Much Slack Is There in the Labor Market?
Figure: Job Market Perceptions
Line chart, 1999 to 2011. There are two series, Perceptions which is measured by index and Unemployment gap which is measured by percentage points. There is a horizontal line that crosses Perceptions y-axis scale at about 106 and Unemployment gaps y-axis scale at zero. Perceptions begins in 1999 at about 135 and generally increases to about 150 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about 75 by 2003 and then generally increases to about 112 by 2007. By 2009 it has generally decreased to about 54 and by November 2011 it has generally increased to about 63. Unemployment gap begins in 1999 at about 0.8 and generally increases to about 1.1 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about -1 by 2003 and then generally increases to about 0.5 by 2006. By 2009 it has generally decreased to about -3.3 and by 2011:Q4 it has generally increased to about -2.2.
Note: Job market perceptions are the proportion of households believing jobs are plentiful minus the proportion believing jobs are hard to get plus 100. The unemployment gap is the staff effective NAIRU minus the unemployment rate.
Source: Conference Board.
Figure: Jobs Hard to Fill
Line chart, 1999 to 2011. There are two series, Jobs hard to fill, which is measured by percent, and Unemployment gap, which is measured in percentage points. There is a horizontal line that crosses the Jobs hard to fill y-axis at about 24 and Unemployment gaps y-axis at 0. Jobs hard to fill begins in early 1999 at about 29 and generally decreases to about 26 by mid-1999. It then generally increases to about 36 by 2000 and then generally decreases to about 15 by 2003. By 2006 it has generally increased to about 31 and by 2009 it has generally decreased to about 7.5. It then generally increases to about 17.5 by November 2011. Unemployment gap begins in 1999 at about 0.8 and generally increases to about 1.1 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about -1 by 2003 and then generally increases to about 0.5 by 2006. By 2009 it has generally decreased to about -3.3 and by 2011:Q4 it has generally increased to about -2.2.
Note: Jobs hard to fill is the percent of small businesses surveyed with at least one "hard to fill" job opening. The unemployment gap is the staff effective NAIRU minus the unemployment rate.
Source: NFIB.
Figure: Persons Working Part-Time for Economic Reasons
Line chart, by percent of household employment, 1999 to 2011. The series begins in 1999 at about 2.5 and generally decreases to about 2.1 by 2000. It then generally increases to about 3.5 by 2003 and then generally decreases to about 2.7 by 2006. By 2009 it has generally increased to about 6.6. From 2009 to 2011 it fluctuates between about 5.9 and 6.9. By November 2011 it is at about 5.95.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Inflation Projections
Measure | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
H1 | H2 | ||||
PCE chain-weighted price index | 1.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Food and beverages | 1.3 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.3 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Energy | 6.2 | 27.2 | -2.6 | -.3 | -1.6 |
Previous Tealbook | 6.2 | 27.2 | -1.3 | -.4 | 1.2 |
Excluding food and energy | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Prices of core goods imports1 | 2.6 | 7.7 | .8 | .4 | 1.4 |
Previous Tealbook | 2.6 | 7.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
1. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Return to table
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Total PCE Prices
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 1995 to 2013. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current and Previous Tealbook. Current begins in early 1995 at about 2.4. It then generally decreases to about 2.0 by late 1995 and then generally increases to about 2.4 by 1996. It then generally decreases to about 0.95 by 1998 and then generally increases to about 2.7 by 2000. By 2002 it has generally decreased to about 0.7 and by 2005 it has generally increased to about 3.2. It then generally decreases to about 1.7 by 2006 and then generally increases to about 4.4 by 2008. By 2009 it has generally decreased to about -0.9 and by early 2010 it has generally increased to about 2.5. It then generally decreases to about 1.1 by late 2010 and then increases to about 2.9 by 2011. By the end of 2013 it has generally decreased to about 1.2. Previous Tealbook follows the Current series almost exactly except it ends in late 2013 at about 1.3.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 1995 to 2013. There are four series, Current Tealbook, Previous Tealbook, Current Tealbook: Market based and Previous Tealbook: Market based. Current Tealbook begins in early 1995 at about 2.4. It then generally decreases to about 1.3 by 1998 and then generally increases to about 2.6 by 2007. By late 2010 it has generally decreased to about 0.95 and by early 2012 it has generally increased to about 1.8. It then generally decreases to about 1.35 by late 2013. Previous Tealbook follows Current Tealbook almost exactly until 2011. By early 2012 it has generally increased to about 1.9 and by late 2013 it has generally decreased to about 1.35. Current Tealbook: Market based begins in early 1995 at about 2.15. It then generally decreases to about 0.95 by 1998 and then generally increases to about 1.9 by 2001. By 2003 it has generally decreased to about 1.2 and by 2008 it has generally increased to about 2.45. It then generally decreases to about 0.7 by late 2010 and then generally increases to about 1.8 by early 2012. It then generally decreases to about 1.2 by the end of 2013. Previous Tealbook: Market based follows Current Tealbook: Market based almost exactly until 2011. By early 2012 it has generally increased to about 1.95 and by the end of 2013 it has generally decreased to about 1.2.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Compensation per Hour
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 1995 to 2013. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are four series, Current Productivity and Costs, Previous Tealbook Productivity and Costs, Current Employment cost index, and Previous Tealbook Employment cost index. Current Productivity and Costs begins in early 1995 at about 1.2 and generally increases to about 3.7 by 1996. It then generally decreases to about 2.5 by 1997 and then generally increases to about 7 by 1998. By 1999 it has generally decreased to about 3 and by 2000 it has generally increased to about 8.7. It then generally decreases to about 2.5 by 2002 and then generally increases to about 5.7 by 2003. By 2009 it has generally decreased to about 0 and by 2010 it has generally increased to about 3. It then generally decreases to about 2.1 by the end of 2013. Previous Tealbook Productivity and Costs follows Current Productivity and Costs almost exactly until the end of 2010. By late 2010 it has generally decreased to about 1.6 and by late 2011 it has generally increased to about 2.7. It then generally decreases to about 2.2 by the end of 2013. Current Employment cost index begins in 1995 at about 2.8. It then generally increases to about 4.7 by 2000 and then generally decreases to about 1.2 by 2009. By the end of 2013 it has generally increased to about 2.3. Previous Tealbook Employment cost index follows the Current Employment cost index almost exactly.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure: Long-Term Inflation Expectations
Line chart, by percent, 1995 to 2011. There are two series, Thomson Reuters/Michigan next 5 to 10 yrs. and SPF next 10 yrs. Thomson Reuters/Michigan begins in early 1995 at about 3.1. It then generally decreases to about 2.7 by 1998. From 1998 to early 2005 it fluctuates between about 2.2 and 3.25. From early 2005 to late 2010 it fluctuates between about 2.4 and 3.4. By November 2011 it is at about 2.7. SPF begins in early 2007 at about 2.0 and generally increases to about 2.25 by 2009. It then generally decreases to about 2.0 by 2010 and then generally increases to about 2.1 by 2011:Q4.
Note: The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) projection is for the PCE price index.
Source: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Note: The gray shaded bars indicate a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009. Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2011:Q3.
The Long-Term Outlook
Item | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 3.7 |
Civilian unemployment rate1 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 6.4 |
PCE prices, total | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
Core PCE prices | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
Federal funds rate1 | .1 | .1 | .1 | .4 | 1.7 | 2.7 |
10-year Treasury yield1 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 |
1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period. Return to table
Figure: Real GDP
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2002 to 2016. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Real GDP and Potential GDP. Real GDP begins in 2002 at about 1.6 and generally increases to about 4.1 by 2004. It then generally decreases to about -5.1 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 3.5 by 2010. By 2011 it has generally decreased to about 1.5 and by 2015 it has generally increased to about 4.1. It then generally decreases to about 3.6 the end of 2016. Potential GDP begins in 2002 at about 3.4 and generally decreases to about 2.1 by late 2004. It then generally increases to about 2.4 by 2007 and then generally decreases to about 1.0 by 2009. By the end of 2016 it has generally increased to about 2.6.
Figure: Unemployment Rate
Line chart, by percent, 2002 to 2016. There are three series, Unemployment rate, NAIRU with EEB adjustment and NAIRU. Unemployment rate begins in 2002 at about 5.7 and generally increases to about 6.1 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about 4.3 by late 2006 and then generally increases to about 10 by 2009. By the end of 2016 it has generally decreased to about 6.3. NAIRU with EEB adjustment begins in early 2002 at about 5 and generally increases to about 5.2 by mid-2002. It then generally decreases to about 5 by 2004 and remains constant here until 2008. It then generally increases to about 6.75 by 2010 and then generally decreases to about 5.4 by the end of 2016. NAIRU begins in 2002 at about 5 and remains constant here until 2008. It then generally increases to about 6 by 2009 and remains constant here until late 2014. By the end of 2016 it has decreased to about 5.4.
Figure: PCE Prices
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2002 to 2016. There are two series, PCE prices excluding food and energy and Total PCE prices. PCE prices excluding food and energy begins in early 2002 at about 1.5 and generally increases to about 2 by mid-2002. It then generally decreases to about 1.4 by 2003 and then generally increases to about 2.5 by 2008. By 2009 it has generally decreased to about 1.3 and by early 2010 it has generally increased to about 1.8. It then generally decreases to about 0.95 by late 2010 and generally increases to about 1.8 by 2012. By 2014 it has generally decreased to about 1.3 and by the end of 2016 it has generally increased to about 1.6. Total PCE prices begins in 2002 at about 0.8 and generally increases to about 3.25 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 1.9 by 2006 and then generally increases to about 4.25 by 2008. By 2009 it has generally decreased to about -0.7 and by early 2010 it has generally increased to about 2.35. It then generally decreases to about 1.3 by late 2010 and then generally increases to about 2.9 by 2011. By 2012 it has decreased to about 1.1 and by end of 2016 it has generally increased to about 1.6.
Figure: Interest Rates
Line chart, by percent, 2002 to 2016. There are three series, Federal funds rate, 10-year Treasury and BBB corporate. Federal funds rate begins in 2002 at about 1.75 and generally decreases to about 1 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 5.25 by 2006 and then generally decreases to about 0.13 by 2009. It remains relatively stable here until early 2014. It then generally increases to about 2.75 by the end of 2016. 10-year Treasury begins in 2002 at about 5.4 and generally decreases to about 3.75 by 2003. It then generally increases to about 5.1 by 2006 and then generally decreases to about 2.1 by late 2011. By the end of 2016 it has generally increased to about 4.2. BBB corporate begins in 2002 at about 7.6 and generally decreases to about 5.4 by 2004. It then generally increases to about 9.3 by 2008 and then generally decreases to about 4.8 by 2011. By the end of 2016 it has generally increased to about 5.9.
Note: In each panel, blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2011:Q4.
Evolution of the Staff Forecast
Figure: Change in Real GDP
Line chart, by percent, January 20, 2010 to December 7, 2011. Data are Q4 over Q4 and are plotted on the Tealbook publication dates. There are three series 2011, 2012, and 2013. 2011 begins on January 20, 2010 at about 4.75. It then generally decreases to about 3.25 by September 15, 2010 and then generally increases to about 3.8 by January 19, 2011. By September 14, 2011 it has decreased to about 1.4 and by December 7, 2011 it has increased to about 1.75. 2012 begins on September 15, 2010 at about 4.3 and increases to about 4.75 by October 27, 2010. It then decreases to about 4.3 by December 8, 2010 and remains constant here until March 9, 2011. By December 7, 2011 it has decreased to about 2.25. 2013 begins on September 14, 2011 at about 3.3 and decreases to about 2.6 by December 7, 2011.
Figure: Unemployment Rate
Line chart, by percent, January 20, 2010 to December 7, 2011. Data are from the fourth quarter and are plotted on the Tealbook publication dates. There are three series, 2011, 2012 and 2013. 2011 begins on January 20, 2010 at about 8.15 and generally increases to about 9.1 by September 15, 2010. It then generally decreases to about 8.55 by March 9, 2011 and then increases to about 9.2 by August 3, 2011. By December 7, 2011 it has generally decreased to about 8.8. 2012 begins on September 15, 2010 at about 8.0 and decreases to about 7.9 by October 27, 2010. It then increases to about 8.0 by December 8, 2010 and then decreases to about 7.5 by March 9, 2011. By December 7, 2011 it has generally increased to about 8.65. 2013 begins on September 14, 2011 at about 8.1 and generally increases to about 8.25 by December 7, 2011.
Figure: Change in PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy
Line chart, by percent, January 20, 2010 to December 7, 2011. Data are Q4 over Q4 and are plotted on the Tealbook publication dates. There are three series, 2011, 2012 and 2013. 2011 begins on January 20, 2010 at about 1.1. It then generally decreases to about 0.8 by June 16, 2010 and then generally increases to about 1.0 by October 27, 2010. By December 8, 2010 it has decreased to about 0.9 and by September 14, 2011 it has increased to about 1.9. It then decreases to about 1.65 by December 7, 2011. 2012 begins on September 15, 2010 at about 0.9 and increases to about 1.0 by October 27, 2010. By December 8, 2010 it has decreased to about 0.9 and by June 15, 2011 it has increased to about 1.5. It remains constant here until December 7, 2011. 2013 begins on September 14, 2011 at about 1.3 and generally increases to about 1.4 by December 7, 2011.
Note: Because the core PCE price index was redefined as part of the comprehensive revisions to the NIPA, projections prior to the August 2009 Tealbook are not strictly comparable with more recent projections.
† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text