Accessible Material
September 2012 Tealbook A Tables and Charts†
Domestic Economic Developments and Outlook
[Box:] Revisions to the Staff Projection since the Previous SEP
Staff Economic Projections Compared with the June Tealbook
Variable | 2012 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | Longer run | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
H1 | H2 | ||||||
Real GDP1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.5 |
June Tealbook | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.5 | |
Unemployment rate2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 5.2 |
June Tealbook | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 5.2 | |
PCE inflation1 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
June Tealbook | 1.5 | .8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | |
Core PCE inflation1 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | n.a. |
June Tealbook | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | n.a. | |
Federal funds rate2 | .15 | .13 | .13 | .13 | .65 | 2.06 | 4.25 |
June Tealbook | .15 | .13 | .13 | .13 | .50 | 4.25 | |
Memo: | |||||||
Federal funds rate, end of period | .13 | .13 | .13 | .13 | .75 | 2.25 | 4.25 |
June Tealbook | .13 | .13 | .13 | .13 | .50 | 4.25 |
1. Percent change from final quarter of preceding period to final quarter of period indicated. Return to table
2. Percent, final quarter of period indicated. Return to table
n.a. Not available. Return to table
Key Background Factors underlying the Baseline Staff Projection
Figure: Federal Funds Rate
Line chart, by percent, 2007 to 2014. Data are quarterly average. There are three series, Current Tealbook, Previous Tealbook, and Market, expected rate. Current Tealbook begins in 2007 at about 5.15 and generally decreases to about 0.15 by 2009. It remains relatively constant here until mid-2014 when it increases to about 0.6. Previous Tealbook generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook until mid-2014 when it begins increasing at a slower rate. It ends in 2014 at about 0.25. Market, expected rate generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook until about mid-2014 when it begins increasing at a slower rate. It ends in 2014 at about 0.25.
Figure: Long-Term Interest Rates
Line chart, by percent, 2007 to 2014. Data are quarterly average. There are six series, Current BBB corporate yield, Previous BBB corporate yield, Current Conforming mortgage rate, Previous Conforming mortgage rate, Current 10-year Treasury yield, and Previous 10-year Treasury yield. Current BBB corporate yield begins in 2007 at about 6.1 and generally increases to about 9.4 by 2009. It generally decreases to about 4.2 by 2012 and then increases to about 5.25 by 2014. Previous BBB corporate yield generally follows the same path as Current BBB corporate yield. Current Conforming mortgage rate begins in 2007 at about 5.1 and generally decreases to about 3.7 by 2012. It then generally increases to about 5.1 by 2014. Previous Conforming mortgage rate generally follows the same path as Current Conforming mortgage rate. Current 10-year Treasury yield begins in 2007 at about 4.9 and generally decreases to about 1.5 by 2012. It then generally increases to about 3.8 by 2014. Previous 10-year Treasury yield generally follows the same path as Current 10-year Treasury yield.
Figure: Equity Prices
Line chart, by ratio scale where 2007:Q1 = 100, 2007 to 2014. Data are quarter-end. There are two series, Current Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index and Previous Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index. Current Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index begins in 2007 at about 100 and generally decreases to about 55 by 2009. It then generally increases to about 122 by 2014. Previous Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index generally follows the same path as Current Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index until 2012 when it begins increasing at a slower rate. It ends in 2014 at about 120.
Figure: House Prices
Line chart, by ratio scale where 2007:Q1 = 100, 2007 to 2014. Data are quarterly. There are two series, Current CoreLogic index and Previous CoreLogic index. Current CoreLogic index begins in 2007 at about 100 and generally decreases to about 68 by 2011. It then generally increases to about 76 by 2014. Previous CoreLogic Index generally follows the same path as Current CoreLogic index until 2012 when it begins increasing at a slower rate. It ends in 2014 at about 75.
Figure: Crude Oil Prices
Line chart, by dollars per barrel, 2007 to 2014. Data are quarterly average. There are four series, Current Imported oil, Previous Imported oil, Current West Texas Intermediate, and Previous West Texas Intermediate. Current Imported oil begins in 2007 at about 59 and generally increases to about 118 by 2008. It decreases to about 42 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 116 by 2012. It then generally decreases to about 95 by 2014. Previous Imported oil generally follows the same path as Current Imported oil until 2012 when it begins decreasing at a faster rate. It ends in 2014 at about 83. Current West Texas Intermediate begins in 2007 at about 59 and increases to about 123 by 2008. It decreases to about 42 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 103 by 2012. It then generally decreases to about 90 by 2014. Previous West Texas Intermediate generally follows the same path as Current West Texas Intermediate until 2012 when it begins decreasing at a faster rate. It ends in 2014 at about 81.
Figure: Broad Real Dollar
Line chart, by ratio scale where 2007:Q1 = 100, 2007 to 2014. Data are quarterly average. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in 2007 at about 100 and generally decreases to about 88 by 2008. It increases to about 101 by 2009 and then generally decreases to about 85 by 2014. Previous Tealbook generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook.
Note: Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2012:Q3.
[Box:] Effects of the European Situation on the U.S. Outlook
Figure: Euro-Area GDP
Line chart, by ratio where 2011:Q2 = 100, 2011 to 2013. There are two series, Current data/forecast and June 2011 Tealbook. Current data/forecast begins in 2011 at about 100 and generally decreases to about 99 by 2013. June 2011 Tealbook begins in 2011 at about 100 and generally increases to about 105 by 2013.
Note: Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2012:Q3.
Source: Haver Analytics, staff calculation, and staff projection.
Figure: Broad Nominal Exchange Rate
Line chart, by ratio where 2011:Q2 = 100, 2011 to 2013. There are two series, Current data/forecast and June 2011 Tealbook. Current data/forecast begins in 2011 at about 100 and generally increases to about 106 by 2012. It then generally increases to about 104.5 by 2013. June 2011 Tealbook begins in 2011 at about 100 and generally decreases to about 96 by 2013.
Note: Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2012:Q3.
Source: Staff calculation and staff projection.
Aggregate Effects of European Crisis on U.S. Economic Activity
(percentage point changes)
2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
---|---|---|---|
1. Real GDP (Q4/Q4) | -.2 | -.8 | -.7 |
Contributions to Q4/Q4 change in real GDP:a | |||
2. Exchange rate | -.1 | -.5 | -.5 |
3. Euro‐area GDP | -.1 | -.1 | -.1 |
4. Rest‐of‐world GDP spillovers | -.1 | -.1 | -.1 |
5. Domestic asset prices | .0 | -.1 | .0 |
6. Unemployment rate (Q4 level) | .1 | .4 | .8 |
7. PCE inflation (Q4/Q4) | -.1 | -.1 | -.1 |
a. Contributions include estimated general equilibrium effects. Contributions may not add to the total because of rounding. Return to table
Summary of the Near-Term Outlook
(Percent change at annual rate except as noted)
Measure | 2012:Q2 | 2012:Q3 | 2012:Q4 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Previous Tealbook |
Current Tealbook |
Previous Tealbook |
Current Tealbook |
Previous Tealbook |
Current Tealbook |
|
Real GDP | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Private domestic final purchases | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
Personal consumption expenditures | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
Residential investment | 8.9 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 3.3 | 5.5 |
Business fixed investment | 5.1 | 3.1 | .6 | -1.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
Government purchases | -3.0 | -.7 | -1.4 | -1.7 | -1.4 | -1.1 |
Contributions to change in real GDP | ||||||
Inventory investment1 | .0 | -.2 | .3 | -.1 | .3 | .2 |
Net exports1 | .0 | .3 | -.4 | .0 | -.4 | -.2 |
Unemployment Rate2 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 |
PCE Chain Price Index | .8 | .7 | .8 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
Ex. food and energy | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
1. Percentage points. Return to table
2. Percent. Return to table
Recent Nonfinancial Developments (1)
Figure: Real GDP and GDI
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2003 to 2012. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Gross domestic product and Gross domestic income. Gross domestic product begins in 2003 at about 1.8 and generally increases to about 4 by 2004. It generally decreases to about -4.3 by 2009 and then increases to about 2.1 by 2012:Q2. Gross domestic income begins in 2003 at about 1.6 and generally increases to about 4 by 2006. It generally decreases to about -5 by 2009 and then increases to about 4 by 2010. It then decreases to about 2 by 2012.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Change in Private Payroll Employment
Line chart, by thousands of employees, 2003 to 2012. There are two series, Current Tealbook and 3-month moving average. Current Tealbook begins in 2003 at about 10 and generally increases to about 380 by 2006. It generally decreases to about -875 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 195 by 2012. 3-month moving average begins in 2003 at about -5 and generally increases to about 300 by 2006. It generally decreases to about -775 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 100 by 2012.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure: Unemployment Rate
Line chart, by percent, 2003 to 2012. The series begins in 2003 at about 5.95 and generally decreases to about 4.5 by 2006. It generally increases to about 10 by 2009 and then generally decreases to about 8.1 by July 2012.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure: Manufacturing IP excluding Motor Vehicles and Parts
Line chart, by 3-month percent change, annual rate, 2003 to 2012. There is a horizontal line at zero. The series begins in 2003 at about 0.1 and generally decreases to about -25 by 2009. It generally increases to about 14 by 2010 and then generally decreases to about 0.1 by 2012.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, G.17 Statistical Release, "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization."
[Box:] The Labor Force Participation Rate
Figure: Labor Force Participation Rate Forecast and Trend
Line chart, by percent, 2007 to 2014. There are two series, Actual and staff forecast and Staff trend. Actual and staff forecast begins in 2007 at about 65.99 and generally decreases to about 63.7 by 2012 where it remains relatively constant until 2014. Staff trend begins in 2007 at about 65.55 and generally decreases to about 63.8 by 2014.
Note: Adjusted for revisions to population controls. Green shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2012:Q3.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and staff assumptions.
Figure: Labor Force Participation Rate by Age Category
Line chart, by percent, 2007 to 2012. There are three series, Ages 16-24, Ages 25-54, and Ages 55+. Ages 16-24 begins in 2007 at about 59.9 and generally decrease to about 53 by 2010 where it remains relatively constant until 2012. Ages 25-54 begins in 2007 at about 82 and generally decreases to about 81.6 by 2012. Ages 55+ begins in 2007 at about 38 and generally increases to about 41 by 2012.
Note: Adjusted for revision to population controls.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure: Unemployment Rate and Potential Worker Rate
Line chart, by percent, 2007 to 2012. There are three series, Potential worker rate, U-5, and Unemployment rate. Potential worker rate begins in 2007 at about 7.2 and generally increases to about 13.2 by 2009. It then generally decreases to about 11.9 by 2012. U-5 begins in 2007 at about 5.7 and generally increases to about 11 by 2009. It then generally decreases to about 9.8 by 2012. Unemployment rate begins in 2007 at about 4.4 and generally increases to about 9.8 by 2009. It then generally decreases to about 8.1 by 2012.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Recent Nonfinancial Developments (2)
Figure: Production of Light Motor Vehicles
Line chart, by millions of units, annual rate, 2003 to 2012. The series begins in 2004 at about 12.7 and generally decreases to about 3.75 by 2009. It then generally increases to about 10.8 by July 2012.
Source: Ward's Auto Infobank.
Figure: Sales of Light Motor Vehicles
Line chart, by millions of units, annual rate, 2003 to 2012. The series begins in 2003 at about 16.2 and generally decreases to about 9 by 2009. It then generally increases to about 14.8 by August 2012.
Source: Ward's Auto Infobank.
Figure: Real PCE Goods excluding Motor Vehicles
Line chart, by billions of chained (2005) dollars, 2003 to 2012. The series begins in 2003 at about 2400 and generally increases to about 2950 by 2007. It generally decreases to about 1800 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 3100 by July 2012.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Single-Family Housing Starts
Line chart, by thousands of units, annual rate, 2003 to 2012. There are two series, Starts and Adjusted permits. Starts begins in 2003 at about 1520 and generally increases to about 1800 by 2005. It generally decreases to about 400 by 2009 and then increases to about 550 by July 2012. Adjusted permits generally follows the same path as Starts.
Note: Adjusted permits equal permits plus starts outside of permit-issuing areas.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Figure: Single-Family Home Sales
Line chart, by thousands of units, annual rate, 2003 to 2012. There are two series, New and Existing. New begins in 2003 at about 1050 and generally increases to about 1350 by 2005. It then generally decreases to about 380 by July 2012. Existing begins in 2003 at about 5400 and generally increases to about 6400 by 2005. It generally decreases to about 3000 by 2010 and then generally increases to about 3750 by July 2012.
Source: For existing, National Association of Realtors; for new, U.S. Census Bureau.
Figure: Nondefense Capital Goods excluding Aircraft
Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2003 to 2012. There are two series, Orders and Shipments. Orders begins in 2003 at about 49.5 and generally increases to about 70 by 2008. It generally decreases to about 45 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 61 by July 2012. Shipments begins in 2003 at about 49.5 and generally increases to about 66 by 2008. It generally decreases to about 52 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 65 by July 2012.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Recent Nonfinancial Developments (3)
Figure: Nonresidential Construction Put in Place
Line chart, by billions of chained (2005) dollars, 2003 to 2012. The series begins in 2003 at about 225 and generally increases to about 410 by 2008. It generally decreases to about 225 by 2011 and then generally increases to about 299 by July 2012.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Figure: Inventory Ratios excluding Motor Vehicles
Line chart, by months, 2003 to 2012. There are two series, Staff flow-of-goods system and Census book-value system. Staff flow-of-goods system begins in 2003 at about 1.6 and generally decreases to about 1.5 by 2008. It generally increases to about 1.63 by 2009 and then generally decreases to about 1.5 by July 2012. Census book-value data begins in 2003 at about 1.3 and generally decreases to about 1.2 by 2008. It generally increases to about 1.4 by 2009 and then generally decreases to about 1.23 by June 2012.
Note: Flow-of-goods system covers total industry excluding motor vehicles and parts, and inventories are relative to consumption. Census data cover manufacturing and trade excluding motor vehicles and parts, and inventories are relative to sales.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; staff calculation.
Figure: Defense Spending
Line chart, by billions of chained (2005) dollars, 2003 to 2012. There are two series, Unified (monthly) and NIPA (quarterly). Unified (monthly) begins in 2003 at about 451 and generally increases to about 685 by 2012. It then generally decreases to about 590 by July 2012. NIPA (quarterly) begins in 2003 at about 450 and generally increases to about 650 by 2010. It then generally decreases to about 590 by 2012:Q2.
Note: The unified series is seasonally adjusted and deflated by BEA prices. The NIPA series excludes the consumption of fixed capital.
Source: Monthly Treasury Statement; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Exports and Non-Oil Imports
Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2003 to 2012. There are two series, Non-oil imports and Exports. Non-oil imports begins in 2003 at about 110 and generally increases to about 180 by 2008. It generally decreases to about 130 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 198 by June 2012. Exports begins in 2003 at about 81 and generally increases to about 165 by 2008. It decreases to about 125 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 185 by June 2012.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Census Bureau.
Figure: Total PCE Prices
Line chart, by percent, 2003 to 2012. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, 12-month change and 3-month change. 12-month change begins in 2003 at about 2 and generally increases to about 4 by 2008. It generally decreases to about -1 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 1.8 by July 2012. 3-month change begins in 2003 at about 2 and generally increases to about 8 by 2005. It generally decreases to about -9 by 2008 and then increases to about 4 by 2011. It then generally decreases to about -0.1 by July 2012.
Note: 3-month changes are at an annual rate.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy
Line chart, by percent, 2003 to 2012. There are two series, 12-month change and 3-month change. 12-month change begins in 2003 at about 1.8 and generally increases to about 3.5 by 2006. It generally decreases to about 1.1 by 2011 and then generally increases to about 1.75 by July 2012. 3-month change begins in 2003 at about 0.9 and generally increases to about 3.3 by 2007. It generally decreases to about 0.3 by 2010 and then generally increases to about 1.4 by July 2012.
Note: 3-month changes are at an annual rate.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Projections of Real GDP and Related Components
(Percent change at annual rate from final quarter of preceding period except as noted)
Measure | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
H1 | H2 | ||||
Real GDP | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 3.2 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 3.2 |
Final sales | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 3.1 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3.0 |
Personal consumption expenditures | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 3.4 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 3.3 |
Residential investment | 3.9 | 14.3 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 12.4 |
Previous Tealbook | 3.5 | 14.3 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 11.2 |
Nonresidential structures | 6.9 | 6.5 | -2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Previous Tealbook | 4.4 | 1.2 | -.6 | .8 | 1.6 |
Equipment and software | 11.4 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 5.1 | 7.2 |
Previous Tealbook | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 6.7 |
Federal purchases | -4.2 | -2.2 | -2.8 | -4.2 | -4.3 |
Previous Tealbook | -3.2 | -5.2 | -2.5 | -4.1 | -4.2 |
State and local purchases | -2.7 | -1.6 | -.5 | .3 | .9 |
Previous Tealbook | -2.5 | -2.3 | -.6 | .4 | 1.3 |
Exports | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.7 |
Previous Tealbook | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 5.6 |
Imports | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 4.8 |
Previous Tealbook | 3.6 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 4.7 |
Contributions to change in real GDP (percentage points) |
|||||
Inventory change | .3 | -.3 | .0 | .3 | .1 |
Previous Tealbook | .1 | .1 | .3 | .3 | .2 |
Net exports | .0 | .2 | -.1 | -.1 | .0 |
Previous Tealbook | .0 | .1 | -.4 | -.2 | -.1 |
Figure: Real GDP
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 1984 to 2014. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in 1984 at about 8.3 and generally decreases to about -0.75 by 1991. It generally increases to about 6 by 2000 and then generally decreases to about -4.3 by 2009. It then generally increases to about 3.4 by 2014. Previous Tealbook generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook.
Note: The gray shaded bars indicate a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009. Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2012:Q2.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Components of Final Demand
Figure: Personal Consumption Expenditures
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2007 to 2014. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in 2007 at about 2.9 and generally decreases to about -3.1 by 2009. It generally increases to about 3 by 2010 and then decreases to about 2 by 2011. It then generally increases to about 3.3 by 2014. Previous Tealbook generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook.
Figure: Residential Investment
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2007 to 2014. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in 2007 at about -19 and generally decreases to about -28 by 2009. It generally increase to about 5 by 2010 and then decreases to about -7.5 by 2011. It then generally increases to about 12.5 by 2014. Previous Tealbook generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook and ends in 2014 at about 12.
Figure: Equipment and Software
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2007 to 2014. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in 2007 at about 3 and generally decreases to about -20 by 2009. It generally increases to about 10 by 2011 and then decreases to about 2 by 2013. It then generally increases to about 7.5 by 2014. Previous Tealbook begins in 2007 at about 3 and generally decreases to about -20 by 2009. It generally increases to about 17 by 2010 and then generally decreases to about 7 by 2014.
Figure: Nonresidential Structures
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2007 to 2014. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in 2007 at about 11 and generally decreases to about -30 by 2009. It generally increases to about 20 by 2011 and then generally decreases to about 2 by 2014. Previous Tealbook begins in 2007 at about 11 and generally decreases to about -30 by 2009. It generally increases to about 10 by 2012 and then generally decreases to about 1 by 2014.
Figure: Government Consumption & Investment
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2007 to 2014. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in 2007 at about 0.4 and generally increases to about 4.2 by 2009. It generally decreases to about -4 by 2011 and then generally increases to about -1 by 2014. Previous Tealbook begins in 2007 at about 0.4 and generally increases to about 2.5 by 2008. It generally decreases to about -3 by 2012 and then generally increases to about -1 by 2014.
Figure: Exports and Imports
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2007 to 2014. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are four series, Current Exports, Previous Exports, Current Imports, and Previous Imports. Current Exports begins in 2007 at about 7.5 and generally decrease to about -14 by 2009. It generally increases to about 12.5 by 2010 and then generally decreases to about 5.1 by 2014. Previous Exports generally follows the same path as Current Exports. Current Imports begins in 2007 at about 4 and generally decreases to about -18 by 2009. It generally increases to about 17 by 2010 and then generally decreases to about 5 by 2014. Previous Imports generally follows the same path as Current Imports.
Note: Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2012:Q2.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Aspects of the Medium-Term Projection
Figure: Personal Saving Rate
Line chart, by percent, 1995 to 2015. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in 1995 at about 6 and generally decreases to about 1.25 by 2005. It generally increases to about 6 by 2008 and then decreases to about 3.9 by 2014. Previous Tealbook generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook until 2009 when it begins decreasing at a slower rate. It ends in 2014 at about 4.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Wealth-to-Income Ratio
Line chart, by ratio, 1995 to 2015. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in 1995 at about 4.82 and generally increases to about 6.15 by 1999. It generally decreases to about 5.1 by 2003 and then generally increases to about 6.5 by 2006. It decreases to about 4.8 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 5 by 2014. Previous Tealbook generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook.
Note: Household net worth as a ratio to disposable income.
Source: For net worth, Federal Reserve Board, flow of funds data; for income, Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Single-Family Housing Starts
Line chart, by millions of units, 1995 to 2015. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in 1995 at about 1 and generally increases to about 1.75 by 2006. It generally decreases to about 0.35 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 0.75 by 2014. Previous Tealbook generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Figure: Equipment and Software Spending
Line chart, by share of nominal GDP, 1995 to 2015. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in 1995 at about 8.1 and generally increases to about 9.6 by 2000. It generally decreases to about 6.4 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 7.6 by 2014. Previous Tealbook generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook until 2009 when it begins increasing at a faster rate. It ends in 2014 at about 8.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Federal Surplus/Deficit
Line chart, by share of nominal GDP, 1995 to 2015. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in 1995 at about -2.6 and generally increases to about 2.3 by 2000. It generally decreases to about -10.6 by 2009 and then generally increases to about -3.9 by 2014. Previous Tealbook generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook.
Source: Monthly Treasury Statement.
Figure: Current Account Surplus/Deficit
Line chart, by share of nominal GDP, 1995 to 2015. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in 1995 at about -1.9 and generally decreases to about -6.5 by 2005. It generally increases to about -2.5 by 2009 and then generally decreases to about -3.3 by 2014. Previous Tealbook generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook until 2012 when it begins decreasing at a faster rate. It ends in 2014 at about -3.9.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Note: The gray shaded bars indicate a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009. Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2012:Q2.
Decomposition of Potential GDP
(Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted)
Measure | 1974-1995 | 1996-2000 | 2001-2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Potential real GDP | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
Previous Tealbook | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
Selected contributions1 | |||||||
Structural labor productivity | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Capital deepening | .7 | 1.5 | .7 | .4 | .5 | .6 | .7 |
Previous Tealbook | .7 | 1.5 | .7 | .5 | .5 | .6 | .7 |
Multifactor productivity | .5 | .8 | 1.2 | .9 | .8 | .9 | .9 |
Previous Tealbook | .5 | .8 | 1.2 | .8 | .8 | .9 | .9 |
Structural hours | 1.5 | 1.0 | .6 | .5 | .6 | .6 | .6 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.5 | 1.0 | .6 | .5 | .6 | .6 | .6 |
Labor force participation | .4 | .0 | -.3 | -.4 | -.3 | -.3 | -.3 |
Previous Tealbook | .4 | .0 | -.3 | -.4 | -.3 | -.3 | -.3 |
Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. For multiyear periods, the percent change is the annual average from Q4 of the year preceding the first year shown to Q4 of the last year shown.
1. Percentage points. Return to table
Figure: Structural and Actual Labor Productivity
Line chart, by chained (2005) dollars per hour, 2001 to 2014. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Structural. Current Tealbook begins in 2001 at about 43.6 and generally increases to about 52 by 2008. It then increases to about 58 by 2014. Structural begins in 2001 at 44 and steadily increases to 58 by 2014.
Note: Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2012:Q2.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis; and staff assumptions.
Figure: Structural and Actual Labor Force Participation Rate
Line chart, by percent, 2001 to 2014. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Structural. Current Tealbook begins in 2001 at about 67.2 and generally decreases to about 66 by 2007. It then decreases to about 63.8 by 2014. Structural begins in 2001 at about 66.75 and generally decreases to about 64.9 by 2014.
Note: Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2012:Q3.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis; and staff assumptions.
The Outlook for the Labor Market and Resource Utilization
(Percent change from final quarter of preceding period)
Measure | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
H1 | H2 | ||||
Output per hour, nonfarm business | .6 | .8 | .9 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
Previous Tealbook | .4 | -.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
Nonfarm private employment1 | 175 | 159 | 145 | 153 | 218 |
Previous Tealbook | 175 | 159 | 110 | 122 | 200 |
Labor force participation rate2 | 64.0 | 63.7 | 63.7 | 63.7 | 63.7 |
Previous Tealbook | 64.0 | 63.7 | 63.8 | 63.7 | 63.7 |
Civilian unemployment rate2 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 7.6 |
Previous Tealbook | 8.7 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 7.8 |
Memo: | |||||
GDP gap3 | -4.4 | -4.4 | -4.6 | -4.1 | -3.1 |
Previous Tealbook | -4.5 | -4.7 | -4.8 | -4.6 | -3.6 |
1. Thousands, average monthly changes. Return to table
2. Percent, average for the final quarter in the period. Return to table
3. Percent difference between actual and potential GDP in the final quarter of the period indicated. A negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Return to table
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, BLS; staff assumptions.
Figure: Nonfarm Private Employment
Line chart, average monthly changes, by thousands, 1995 to 2015. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in 1995 at about 210 and generally decreases to about -300 by 2001. It generally increases to about 300 by 2005 and then generally decreases to about -800 by 2009. It then generally increases to about 275 by 2014. Previous Tealbook generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, BLS.
Figure: Unemployment Rate
Line chart, by percent, 1995 to 2015. There are four series, Current Tealbook, Previous Tealbook, Natural Rate, and Natural rate with EEB adjustment. Current Tealbook begins in 1995 at about 5.5 and generally decreases to about 4 by 2000. It generally increases to about 10 by 2009 and then decreases to about 7.6 by 2014. Previous Tealbook generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook until 2012 when it begins decreasing at a slower rate. It ends in 2014 at about 7.8. Natural rate begins in 1995 at about 5 where it remains relatively constant until 2008. It increases to about 6 by 2010 where it remains relatively constant until 2014. Natural rate with EEB adjustment begins in 1995 at about 5 where it remains relatively constant until 2008. It increases to about 6.5 by 2010 and then decreases to about 6 by 2014.
Note: The EEB adjustment is the staff estimate of the effect of extended and emergency unemployment compensation programs on the natural rate of unemployment.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, BLS; staff assumptions.
Figure: GDP Gap
Line chart, by percent, 1995 to 2015. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in 1995 at about -2 and generally increases to about 3 by 1999. It generally decreases to about -6 by 2009 and then generally increases to about -3 by 2014. Previous Tealbook generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook and ends in 2014 at about -3.7.
Note: The GDP gap is the percent difference between actual and potential GDP; a negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2012:Q2.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, BEA; staff assumptions.
Figure: Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate
Line chart, by percent, 1995 to 2015. There is a horizontal line at 79 representing the average rate from 1972 to 2011. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in 1995 at about 84.7 and generally decreases to about 71.5 by 2001. It generally increases to about 79 by 2005 and then generally decreases to about 65 by 2009. It then generally increases to about 80 by 2014. Previous Tealbook generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook and ends in 2014 at about 79.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, G.17 Statistical Release, "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization."
Note: The gray shaded bars indicate a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009. Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2012:Q3 except as noted.
Inflation Projections
(Percent change at annual rate from final quarter of preceding period)
Measure | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
H1 | H2 | ||||
PCE chain-weighted price index | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Previous Tealbook | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Food and beverages | 5.1 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 2.6 | .9 |
Previous Tealbook | 5.2 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 2.4 | .9 |
Energy | 11.9 | -3.3 | 6.3 | -3.4 | -2.2 |
Previous Tealbook | 12.8 | -3.4 | -6.7 | -1.2 | -1.7 |
Excluding food and energy | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Prices of core goods imports1 | 4.3 | .5 | -1.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
Previous Tealbook | 4.3 | 1.1 | -.5 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
1. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Return to table
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Total PCE Prices
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 1995 to 2015. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in 1995 at about 2.45 and generally increases to about 4.5 by 2008. It decreases to about -1 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 2.9 by 2011. It then generally decreases to about 1.3 by 2014. Previous Tealbook generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook.
Note: Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2012:Q2.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 1995 to 2015. There are four series, Current Tealbook, Previous Tealbook, Current Market-based and Previous Market-based. Current Tealbook begins in 1995 at about 2.4 and generally decreases to about 1.3 by 1998. It generally increases to about 2.5 by 2007 and then generally decreases to about 1.1 by 2010. It then generally increases to about 1.6 by 2014. Previous Tealbook generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook. Current Market-based begins in 1995 at about 2.2 and generally decreases to about 1 by 1998. It generally increases to about 2.5 by 2008 and then decreases to about 0.75 by 2010. It the generally increases to about 1.5 by 2014. Previous Market-based generally follows the same path as Current Market-based.
Note: Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2012:Q2.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Compensation per Hour
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 1995 to 20115. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are four series, Current Tealbook, Previous Tealbook, Current Employment cost index, and Previous Employment cost index. Current Tealbook begins in 1995 at about 1.3 and generally increases to about 8.75 by 2000. It generally decreases to about 0 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 3 by 2014. Previous Tealbook generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook. Current Employment cost index begins in 1995 at about 2.8 and generally increases to about 4.5 by 2000. It generally decreases to about 1.3 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 2.9 by 2014. Previous Employment cost index generally follows the same path as Current Employment cost index.
Note: Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2012:Q2.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure: Long-Term Inflation Expectations
Line chart, by percent, 1995 to 2015. There are two series, Thomson Reuters/Michigan next 5 to 10 years and SPF, next 10 years. Thomson Reuters/Michigan next 5 to 10 years begins in 1995 at about 3.2 and generally decreases to about 1.5 by 2002. It generally increases to about 3.4 by 2009 and then generally decreases to about 3 by August 2012. SPF, next 10 years begins in 2006 at about 2 and generally increases to about 2.2 by 2008. It generally decreases to about 2 by 2010 and then generally increases to about 2.2 by 2012.
Note: The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) projection is for the PCE price index.
Source: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Note: The gray shaded bars indicate a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.
The Long-Term Outlook
(Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted)
Measure | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.5 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
Civilian unemployment rate1 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 5.7 |
Previous Tealbook | 8.3 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 5.9 |
PCE prices, total | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
Core PCE prices | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
Federal funds rate1 | .1 | .1 | .6 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 3.5 |
Previous Tealbook | .1 | .1 | .4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 3.3 |
10-year Treasury yield1 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.7 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 |
1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period. Return to table
Figure: Real GDP
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2004 to 2020. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are four series, Current Real GDP, Previous Real GDP, Current Potential GDP, and Previous Potential GDP. Current Real GDP begins in 2004 at about 4 and generally decreases to about -4.5 by 2009. It generally increases to about 3.8 by 2015 and then generally decreases to about 2.3 by 2020. Previous Real GDP generally follows the same path as Current Real GDP. Current Potential GDP begins in 2004 at about 2.5 and generally decreases to about 1 by 2009. It then increases to about 2.25 by 2020. Previous Potential GDP generally follows the same path as Current Potential GDP.
Figure: Unemployment Rate
Line chart, by percent, 2004 to 2020. There are four series, Current Tealbook, Previous Tealbook, Natural rate, and Natural rate with EEB adjustment. Current Tealbook begins in 2004 at about 5.8 and generally decreases to about 4.4 by 2007. It increases to about 10 by 2009 and then generally decreases to about 5.15 by 2020. Previous Tealbook generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook. Natural rate begins in 2004 at 5 where it remains constant until 2008. It increases to 6 by 2009 where it remains constant until 2014. It decreases to about 5.15 by 2017 where it remains constant until 2020. Natural rate with EEB adjustment begins in 2004 at 5 where it remains constant until 2008. It increase to about 6.35 by 2009 and then decreases to 6 by 2013. It remains constant at 6 until 2014 and decreases to about 5.15. It remains constant at 5.15 until 2020.
Figure: PCE Prices
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2004 to 2020. There are four series, Current Total PCE prices, Previous Total PCE prices, Current PCE prices excluding food and energy, and Previous PCE prices excluding food and energy. Current Total PCE prices begins in 2004 at about 2 and generally increases to about 4.25 by 2007. It decreases to about -0.9 by 2009 and then general increases to about 2.8 by 2011. It then generally decreases to about 2 by 2020. Previous Total PCE prices generally follows the same path as Current Total PCE prices. Current PCE prices excluding food and energy begins in 2004 at about 2.9 and generally decreases to about 1.15 by 2010. It then generally increases to about 2 by 2020. Previous PCE prices excluding food and energy generally follows the same path as Current PCE prices excluding food and energy.
Figure: Interest Rates
Line chart, by percent, 2004 to 2020. There are six series, Current BBB corporate yield, Previous BBB corporate yield, Current 10-year Treasury, Previous 10-year Treasury, Current Federal funds rate, and Previous Federal funds rate. Current BBB corporate yield begins in 2004 at about 5.5 and generally increases to about 9.5 by 2008. It generally decreases to about 4.2 by 2012 and then generally increases to about 6.1 by 2020. Previous BBB corporate yield generally follows the same path as Current BBB corporate yield. Current 10-year Treasury begins in 2004 at about 4 and generally decreases to about 2 by 2012. It then generally increases to about 5.8 by 2020. Previous 10-year Treasury generally follows the same path as Current 10-year Treasury. Current Federal funds rate begins in 2004 at about 1 and increases to about 5.15 by 2006. It decreases to about 0.1 by 2008 where it remains constant until 2014. It then generally increases to about 4.15 by 2020. Previous Federal funds rate generally follows the same path as Current Federal funds rate.
Note: In each panel, shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2012:Q3; dashed lines are the previous Tealbook.
Evolution of the Staff Forecast
Figure: Change in Real GDP
Line chart, by percent, Q4 over Q4, January 2010 to December 2012. The x-axis represents Tealbook publication date. There are four series, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. 2011 begins on January 20, 2010 at about 4.75 and generally decreases to about 1.4 by September 14, 2011. It then generally increases to about 1.9 by September 5, 2012. 2012 begins on September 15, 2010 at about 4.5 and generally decreases to about 2 by January 18, 2012. It increases to about 2.3 by April 18, 2012 and then decreases to about 1.5 by September 5, 2012. 2013 begins on September 14, 2011 at about 3.3 and generally decreases to about 2.2 by January 18, 2012. It increases to about 2.8 by April 18, 2012 and then generally decreases to about 2.15 by September 5, 2012. 2014 begins on April 18, 2012 at about 3.25 and generally decreases to about 3.15 by September 5, 2012.
Figure: Unemployment Rate
Line chart, by percent, fourth quarter, January 2010 to December 2012. The x-axis represents Tealbook publication date. There are four series, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. 2011 begins on January 20, 2010 at about 8.2 and generally increases to about 9 by September 15, 2010. It generally decreases to about 8.5 by March 9, 2011 and then increases to about 9.2 by August 3, 2011. It then generally decreases to about 8.75 by September 5, 2012. 2012 begins on September 15, 2010 at about 8 and generally decreases to about 7.5 by March 9, 2011. It generally increases to about 8.7 by September 14, 2011 and then generally decreases to about 8.3 by September 5, 2012. 2013 begins on September 14, 2011 at about 8.4 and generally decreases to about 7.8 by April 18, 2012. It then generally increases to about 8 by September 5, 2012. 2014 begins on April 18, 2012 at about 7.4 and generally increases to about 7.75 by July 25, 2012. It then decreases to about 7.5 by September 5, 2012.
Figure: Change in PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy
Line chart, by percent, Q4 over Q4, January 2010 to December 2012. The x-axis represents Tealbook publication date. There are four series, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. 2011 begins on January 20, 2010 at about 1.1 and generally increases to about 1.9 by September 14, 2011. It then generally decreases to about 1.65 by September 5, 2012. 2012 begins on September 15, 2010 at about 0.8 and generally increases to about 1.5 by April 20, 2011. It then increases to about 1.65 by September 5, 2012. 2013 begins on September 14, 2011 at about 1.25 and generally increases to about 1.7 by April 18, 2012. It then decreases to about 1.6 by September 5, 2012. 2014 begins on April 18, 2012 at about 1.7 and generally decreases to about 1.6 by September 5, 2012.
International Economic Developments and Outlook
Recent Foreign Indicators
Figure: Nominal Exports
Line chart, by ratio scale where January 2008 = 100, 2008 to 2012. There is a horizontal line at 100. There are three series, Foreign, AFE, and EME. Foreign begins in 2008 at about 100 and generally decreases to about 70 by 2009. It then generally increases to about 113 by 2012. AFE begins in 2008 at about 100 and generally decreases to about 69 by 2009. It generally increases to about 109 by 2011 and then decreases to about 101 by 2012. EME begins in 2008 at about 100 and generally decreases to about 71 by 2009. It then generally increases to about 125 by 2012.
Note: EME excludes Venezuela.
Figure: Industrial Production
Line chart, by ratio scale where January 2008 = 100, 2008 to 2012. There is a horizontal line at 100. There are three series, Foreign, AFE, and EME. Foreign begins in 2008 at about 100 and generally decreases to about 86.5 by 2009. It then generally increases to about 102.5 by 2012. AFE begins in 2008 at about 100 and generally decreases to about 85 by 2009. It then generally increases to about 94 by 2012. EME begins in 2008 at about 100 and generally decreases to about 87.5 by 2009. It then generally increases to about 114 by 2012.
Note: AFE excludes Australia and Switzerland. EME excludes Colombia, Hong Kong, Philippines, and Venezuela.
Figure: Retail Sales
Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 2008 to 2012. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are three series, Foreign, AFE, and EME. Foreign begins in 2008 at about 5 and generally decreases to about -2 by 2009. It generally increases to about 7.5 by 2010 and then generally decreases to about 2.5 by 2012. AFE begins in 2008 at about 4.5 and generally decreases to about -4 by 2009. It generally increases to about 5 by 2010 and then generally decreases to about 0.25 by 2012. EME begins in 2008 at about 7.5 and generally decreases to about 2.5 by 2009. It generally increases to about 16 by 2010 and then generally decreases to about 6.5 by 2012.
Note: AFE excludes Australia and Switzerland. EME includes Brazil, China, Indonesia, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan.
Figure: Employment
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2008 to 2012. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are three series, Foreign, AFE, and EME. Foreign begins in 2008 at about 2 and generally decreases to about -1.15 by 2009. It generally increases to about 1.75 by 2010 and then decreases to about 0.9 by 2012. AFE begins in 2008 at about 2.9 and generally decreases to about -1.9 by 2009. It generally increases to about 1 by 2011 and then decreases to about 0.15 by 2012. EME begins in 2008 at about 3 and generally decreases to about 0.5 by 2009. It then generally increases to about 2.5 by 2012.
Note: EME excludes Argentina and Mexico.
Figure: Consumer Prices: Advanced Foreign Economies
Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 2008 to 2012. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Headline and Core. Headline begins in early 2008 at about 2.1 and generally increases to about 3.6 by mid-2008. It generally decreases to about -0.9 by 2009 and then increases to about 2.6 by 2011. It then decreases to about 1.5 by 2012. Core begins in 2008 at about 1.05 and generally decreases to about 0.8 by 2010. It then generally increases to about 1.15 by 2012.
Note: Excludes Australia, Sweden, and Switzerland. Core excludes all food and energy; staff calculation.
Source: Haver Analytics and CEIC.
Figure: Consumer Prices: Emerging Market Economies
Line chart, by 12-month percent change, 2008 to 2012. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are three series, Headline, Excluding food--East Asia, and Excluding food--Latin America. Headline begins in 2008 at about 5.6 and generally decreases to about 0.8 by 2009. It generally increases to about 5 by 2011 and then decreases to about 3 by 2012. Excluding food--East Asia begins in 2008 at about 3 and generally decreases to about -2 by 2009. It generally increases to about 2.6 by 2011 and then decreases to about 1.9 by 2012. Excluding food--Latin America begins in 2008 at about 3.8 and generally increases to about 5.75 by 2009. It generally decreases to about 3.3 by 2012.
The Foreign Outlook
(Percent change, annual rate)
2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | H2 | |||
Real GDP | |||||||||
Total foreign | 2.8 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.3 |
Previous Tealbook | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.2 |
Advanced foreign economies | 1.3 | 1.6 | .7 | .7 | .6 | .8 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.3 | 1.5 | .7 | .8 | .5 | .7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
Emerging market economies | 4.5 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.8 |
Previous Tealbook | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
Consumer Prices | |||||||||
Total foreign | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
Previous Tealbook | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
Advanced foreign economies | 2.2 | 2.2 | .6 | .7 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
Previous Tealbook | 2.2 | 2.2 | .6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
Emerging market economies | 4.3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.2 |
Previous Tealbook | 4.3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
Note: Annualized percent change from final quarter of preceding period to final quarter of period indicated.
Figure: Real GDP
Line chart, by percent change, annual rate, 2009 to 2014. There is a horizontal line zero. There are two series, Current Tealbook and Previous Tealbook. Current Tealbook begins in early 2009 at about -9 and generally increases to about 6 by late 2009. It generally decreases to about 2 by 2011 and then generally increases to about 4 by 2014. Previous Tealbook generally follows the same path as Current Tealbook.
There is a second line chart, by percent change, annual rate, 2009 to 2014. There are four series, Current Emerging market economies, Previous Emerging market economies, Current Advanced foreign economies, and Previous Advance foreign economies. Current Emerging market economies begins in early 2009 at about -9 and generally increases to about 10 by late 2009. It generally decreases to about 3 by 2011 and then increases to about 5 by 2012. Previous Emerging market economies generally follows the same path as Current Emerging market economies. Current Advanced foreign economies begins in 2009 at about -9 and generally increases to about 4 by 2010. It generally decreases to about 0 by 2011 and the generally increases to about 2.5 by 2012. Previous Advanced foreign economies generally follows the same path as Current Advanced foreign economies.
Figure: Consumer Prices
Line chart, by percent change, annual rate, 2009 to 2014. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Current Total foreign and Previous Total foreign. Current Total foreign begins in 2009 at about -1 and generally increases to about 5 by 2010. It then generally decreases to about 2.25 by 2014. Previous Total foreign generally follows the same path as Current Total foreign.
There is a second line chart, by percent change, annual rate, 2009 to 2014. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are four series, Current Emerging market economies, Previous Emerging market economies, Current Advanced foreign economies, and Previous Advanced foreign economies. Current Emerging market economies begins in 2009 at about -0.5 and generally increases to about 6.15 by 2010. It generally decreases to about 2.8 by 2012 and then increases to about 3.2 by 2014. Previous Emerging market economies generally follows the same path as Current Emerging market economies. Current Advanced foreign economies begins in 2009 at about -1.8 and generally increases to about 3 by 2010. It generally decreases to about 0.5 by 2012 and then generally increases to about 1.3 by 2014. Previous Advanced foreign economies generally follows the same path as Current Advanced foreign economies.
Note: Blue shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2012:Q3.
[Box:] Recent Developments in the Euro Area
Figure: Italian Sovereign Bond Yields
Line chart, June to September. There are 2 vertical lines marking July 26 and August 2. There are two series, 10-year and 2-year. 10-year begins in June at about 5.75 and generally increases to about 6.5 by July. It then generally decreases to about 5.7 by September. 2-year begins in June at about 4.25 and generally increases to about 5 by July. It then generally decreases to about 2.4 by September.
Source: Bloomberg.
Figure: Spanish Sovereign Bond Yields
Line chart, June to September. There are 2 vertical lines marking July 26 and August 2. There are two series, 10-year and 2-year. 10-year begins in June at about 6.5 and generally increases to about 7.6 by July. It then generally decreases to about 6.6 by September. 2-year begins in June at about 5 and generally increases to about 6.4 by July. It then generally decreases to about 3 by September.
Source: Bloomberg.
Evolution of Staff's International Forecast
Figure: Total Foreign GDP
Line chart, by percent change Q4 over Q4, January 2010 to December 2012. The x-axis represents Tealbook publication date. There are four series, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. 2011 begins on January 20, 2010 at about 4 and generally decreases to about 3.2 by September 15, 2010. It generally increases to about 3.5 by June 15, 2011 and then generally decreases to about 2.9 by September 5, 2012. 2012 begins on September 15, 2010 at about 3.5 and generally decreases to about 2.6 by December 7, 2011. It generally increases to about 3 by March 7, 2012 and then generally decreases to about 2.5 by September 5, 2012. 2013 begins on September 5, 2011 at about 3.4 and generally decreases to about 3.1 by April 18, 2012. It then decreases to about 2.9 by September 5, 2012. 2014 begins on April 18, 2012 at about 3.6 and generally decreases to about 3.1 by June 13, 2012. It then increases to about 3.25 by September 5, 2012.
Figure: Total Foreign CPI
Line chart, by percent change, Q4 over Q4, January 2010 to December 2012. The x-axis represents Tealbook publication date. There are four series, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. 2011 begins on January 20, 2010 at about 2 and generally increases to about 3 by April 20, 2011. It generally increases to about 3.5 by October 26, 2011 and then decreases to about 3.4 by September 5, 2012. 2012 begins on September 15, 2010 at about 2.2 where it remains relatively constant until January 18, 2012. It generally increases to about 2.65 by March 7, 2012 and then decreases to about 2.25 by September 5, 2012. 2013 begins on September 14, 2011 at about 2.3 and generally decreases to about 2.25 by September 5, 2012. 2014 begins on April 18, 2011 at about 2.35 and generally increases to about 2.5 by September 5, 2012.
Figure: U.S. Current Account Balance
Line chart, by percent of GDP, January 2010 to December 2012. The x-axis represents Tealbook publication date. There are four series, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. 2011 begins on January 20, 2010 at about -3.1 and generally increases to about -2.75 by June 15, 2011. It then generally decreases to about -3 by September 5, 2012. 2012 begins on September 15, 2010 at about -3 and generally increases to about -2 by June 15, 2011. It then generally decreases to about -3 by September 5, 2012. 2013 begins on September 14, 2011 at about -2.25 and generally decreases to about -3.75 by July 25, 2012. It then generally increases to about -3.25 by September 5, 2012. 2014 begins on April 18, 2012 at about -3.2 and generally decreases to about -3.9 by July 25, 2012. It then increases to about -3.3 by September 5, 2012.
Financial Developments
Policy Expectations and Treasury Yields
Figure: Selected Interest Rates
Line chart, by percent, July to September. There are vertical lines representing the August FOMC, July employment report, July retail sales, August FOMC minutes, and Jackson Hole Speech. There are two series, 10-year Treasury yield and 2-year Treasury yield. 10-year Treasury yield begins on July 31 at about 1.48 and generally increase to about 1.86 by August 17. It then generally decreases to about 1.55 by September 4. 2-year Treasury yield begins on July 31 at about 0.25 and generally increases to about 0.3 by August 17. It then generally decreases to about 0.225 by September 4.
Note: 5-minute intervals. 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. No adjustments for term premiums.
Source: Bloomberg.
Figure: Implied Federal Funds Rate
Line chart, by percent, 2013 to 2016. There are four series, Mean: September 4, 2012, Mean: July 31, 2012, Mode: August 31, 2012, and Mode: July 31, 2012. Mean: September 4, 2012 begins in 2013 at about 0.13 and generally increases to about 0.63 by 2016. Mean: July 31, 2012 begins in 013 at about 0.14 and generally increases to about 0.62 by 2016. Mode: August 31, 2012 begins in 2013 at about 0.1 and generally decreases to about 0.075 by 2014. It then increases to about .12 by 2016. Mode: July 31, 2012 begins in 2013 at about .1 and generally decreases to about 0.075 by 2014. It then increases to about 0.15 by 2016.
Note: Mean is estimated using overnight index swap quotes. Mode is estimated from the distribution of federal funds rate implied by interest rate caps. Both include a term premium of zero basis points per month.
Source: Bloomberg and CME Group.
Figure: Distribution of Modal Timing of First Rate Increase from the Desk's Dealer Survey
Bar chart, by percent, 2013 to 2016. There are two series, Recent: 21 respondents and August FOMC: 21 respondents. Recent: 21 respondents begins in 2014:Q2 at about 5 and increases to 10 by 2014:Q4. It decreases to 5 in 2014:Q4 and remains there in 2015:Q1. It increases to 20 in 2015:Q2 and then increases to about 34 by 2015:Q3. It decreases to 15 in 2015:Q4 and then decreases to 5 in 2016:Q1 where it remains until 2016:Q2. August FOMC: 21 respondents begins in 2013:Q1 at 0 and remains there for 2013:Q2. It increases to 5 for 2013:Q3 and 2013:Q4 and then decreases to 0 for 2014:Q1. It increases to 10 for 2014:Q2 and 2014:Q3 and then increases to 20 for 2014:Q4. It decreases to 5 for 2015:Q1 and 2015:Q2 and then increases to 25 by 2015:Q3. It decreases to 10 for 2015:Q4 and 2016:Q1 and then decreases to 0 for 2016:Q2, 2016:Q3, and 2016:Q4.
Source: Desk's Dealer Survey from September 3, 2012.
Figure: Treasury Yield Curve
Line chart, by percent, 1 to 20. The x-axis represents years ahead. There are two series, Most recent: September 4, 2012 and Last FOMC: July 31, 2012. Most recent: September 4, 2012 begins in 1 at about 0.25 and generally increases to about 2.5 by 20. Last FOMC: July 31, 2012 begins in 1 at about 0.25 and generally increases to about 2.4 by 20.
Note: Smoothed yield curve estimated from off-the-run Treasury coupon securities. Yields shown are those on notional par Treasury securities with semiannual coupons.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Figure: Inflation Compensation
Line chart, by percent, 2010 to 2012. Data are daily. There is a vertical line marking the August FOMC. There are two series, 5 to 10 years ahead and Next 5 years. 5 to 10 years ahead begins in 2010 at about 3.2 and generally decreases to about 2.25 by 2011. It then generally increases to about 2.4 by September 4 2012. Next 5 years begins in early 2010 at about 2 and generally decreases to about 1.25 by late 2011. It generally increases to about 2.3 by 2011 and then generally decreases to about 2 by 2012.
Note: Estimates based on smoothed nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yield curves. Next 5 years is adjusted for the indexation-lag (carry) effect.
Source: Barclays PLC and staff estimates.
Foreign Developments
Figure: Euro-Area 2-Year Government Bond Spreads
Line chart, by percentage points, 2011 to 2012. Data are daily. There is a vertical line marking the August FOMC. There are two series, Spain and Italy. Spain begins in 2011:Q1 at about 2.25 and generally decreases to about 1.2 by 2011:Q2. It generally increases to about 5.9 by 2011:Q4 and then decreases to about 2 by 2012:Q1. It generally increases to about 6.8 by 2012:Q2 and then decreases to about 3.2 by September 4, 2012. Italy begins in 2011:Q1 at about 2 and generally decreases to about 0.75 by 2011:Q2. It generally increases to about 7 by 2011:Q4 and then generally decreases to about 1.5 by 2012:Q1. It generally increases to about 5.2 by 2012:Q2 and then decreases to about 2.5 by September 4, 2012.
Note: Spread over German bunds.
Source: Bloomberg.
Figure: Euro-Area 10-Year Government Bond Spreads
Line chart, by percentage points. Data are daily. There is a vertical line marking the August FOMC. There are four series, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and Italy. Portugal begins in 2011:Q1 at about 4 and generally increases to about 10.8 by 2011:Q3. It generally increases to about 15.8 by 2012:Q1 and then generally decreases to about 7.8 by September 4, 2012. Spain begins in 2011:Q1 at about 2.2 and generally increases to about 4.1 by 2011:Q1. It then generally increases to about 5.2 by September 4, 2012. Ireland begins in 2011:Q1 at about 6 and generally increases to about 11.4 by 2011:Q3. It then generally increase to about 4.5 by September 4, 2012. Italy begins in 2011:Q1 at about 2 and generally increases to about 5.75 by 2011:Q2. It then generally decrease to about 4.4 by September 4, 2012.
Note: Spread over German bunds.
Source: Bloomberg.
Figure: Stock Price Indexes
Line chart, by ratio scale where January 3, 2011 = 100, 2011 to 2012. There is a vertical line marking the August FOMC. There are four series, DJ Euro, Topix, MSCI Emerging Markets, and DJ Euro Banks. DJ Euro begins in 2011:Q1 at about 100 and generally decreases to about 72 by 2011:Q3. It then generally increases to about 88 by September 4, 2012. Topix begins in 2011:Q1 at about 100 and generally decreases to about 80 by 2011:Q4. It generally increases to about 98 by 2012:Q2 and then generally decreases to about 80 by September 4, 2012. MSCI Emerging Markets begins in 2011:Q1 at about 100 and generally decreases to about 72 by 2011:Q3. It generally increases to about 90 by 2012:Q1 and then generally decreases to about 80 by September 4, 2012. DJ Euro Banks begins in 2011:Q1 at about 100 and generally decreases to about 54 by 2011:Q3. It generally increases to about 70 by 2012:Q1 and then generally decreases to about 60 by September 4, 2012.
Source: Bloomberg.
Figure: Dollar Exchange Rates
Line chart, by ratio scale where January 3, 2011 = 100, 2011 to 2012. Data are daily. There is a vertical line marking the August FOMC. There are three series, Broad, Euro, and Yen. Broad begins in 2011:Q1 at about 100 and generally decreases to about 95 by 2011:Q3. It then generally increases to about 102 by September 4, 2012. Euro begins in 2011:Q1 at about 100 and generally increases to about 111 by 2011:Q2. It then generally decreases to about 94.5 by September 4, 2012. Yen begins in 2011:Q1 at about 100 and generally increases to about 104.5 by 2011:Q2. It generally decreases to about 93 by 2011:Q4 and then generally increases to about 102.5 by 2012:Q1. It then generally decreases to about 96.5 by September 4, 2012.
Source: Federal Reserve Board; Bloomberg.
Figure: 10-Year Nominal Benchmark Yields
Line chart, by percent, 2011 to 2012. Data are daily. There is a vertical line making the August FOMC. There are four series, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, and Canada. Germany begins in 2011:Q1 at about 2.99 and generally increases to about 3.4 by 2011:Q2. It then generally decreases to about 1.4 by September 4, 2012. United Kingdom begins in 2011:Q1 at about 3.4 and generally increases to about 3.9 by 2011:Q2. It then generally decreases to about 1.6 by September 4, 2012. Japan begins in 2011:Q1 at about 1.1 and generally decreases to about 0.9 by September 4, 2012. Canada begins in 2011:Q1 at about 3.1 and generally decreases to about 1.8 by September 4, 2012.
Source: Bloomberg.
Figure: Foreign Net Purchases of U.S. Treasury Securities
Bar chart, by billions of dollars, annual rate, 2010 to 2012. There are two series, Official and Private. Approximate values are: 2010: Official 425 and Private 300; 2011:H1: Official 310 and Private 75; 2011:H2: Official 20 and Private 400; 2012:Q1: Official 310 and Private 135; 2012:Q2: Official 305 and Private 200; 2012:July: Official 275 and Private 197.
Source: Treasury International Capital data adjusted for staff estimates. July data are embargoed until September 18, 2012.
Financial Institutions and Short-Term Dollar Funding Markets
Figure: Stock Prices
Line chart, by ratio scale where July 31, 2012 = 100, 2010 to 2012. There are two series, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Bank Index. S&P 500 begins in January 2010 at about 83 and generally increases to about 97 by May 2011. It generally decreases to about 80 by September 2011 and then generally increases to about 100 by September 4, 2012. Dow Jones Bank Index begins in January 2010 at about 110 and generally increases to about 135 by May 2010. It generally decrease to about 75 by September 2011 and then increases to about 118 by May 2012. It then generally decreases to about 103 by September 4, 2012.
Source: Bloomberg.
Figure: CDS Spreads of Large Bank Holding Companies
Line chart, by basis points, 2010 to 2012. Data are daily. There is a vertical line marking the August FOMC. There are six series, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley. Citigroup begins in January 2010 at about 150 and generally decreases to about 125 by March 2011. It generally increases to about 375 by September 2011 and then decreases to about 210 by September 4, 2012. JPMorgan Chase begins in January 2010 at about 50 and generally increases to about 180 by September 2011. It then generally decreases to about 110 by September 4, 2012. Wells Fargo begins in January 2011 at about 90 and generally increases to about 180 by September 2011. It then generally decrease to about 90 by September 4, 2012. Goldman Sachs begins in January 2010 at about 90 and generally increases to about 400 by September 2011. It then generally decreases to about 235 by September 4, 2012. Bank of America begins in January 2010 at about 100 and generally increases to about 490 by November 2011. It then generally decreases to about 200 by September 4, 2012. Morgan Stanley begins in January 2010 at about 100 and generally increases to about 600 by September 2011. It then generally decreases to about 300 by September 4, 2012.
Source: Markit.
Figure: Selected Spreads
Line chart, by basis points, 2010 to 2012. There is a vertical line marking the August FOMC. Data are daily. There are two series, 3-month LIBOR over OIS and USD 3x6 FRA-OIS. 3-month LIBOR over OIS begins in January 2010 at about 10 and generally increases to about 33 by June 2010. It generally decreases to about 10 by September 2010 and then generally increases to about 50 by January 2012. It then generally decreases to about 30 by September 4, 2012. USD 3x6 FRA-OIS begins in January 2010 at about 11 and generally increases to about 69 by May 2010. It generally decreases to about 18 by May 2011 and then generally increases to about 67 by November 2011. It then generally decreases to about 24 by September 4, 2012.
Note: USD 3x6 FRA-OIS spread is calculated from a LIBOR forward rate agreement (FRA) 3 to 6 months in the future and the implied forward overnight index swap (OIS) rate for the same period.
Source: Bloomberg.
Figure: Average Maturity for Unsecured Financial Commercial Paper Outstanding in the U.S. Market
Line chart, by days, 2010 to 2012. Data are weekly. There is a vertical line marking the August FOMC. There are two series, U.S. Parent and European parent. U.S. parent begins in January 2010 at about 41.5 and generally decreases to about 36 by May 2010. It generally increases to about 52 by October 2011 and then generally increases to about 62.5 by May 2012. It then generally decrease to about 57.5 by August 29, 2012. European Parent begins in January 2010 at about 42 and generally increases to about 57 by October 2010. It generally decreases to about 32 by January 2012 and then generally increases to about 52 by August 29, 2012.
Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation.
Figure: Treasury GCF Repo Rate
Line chart, by basis points, 2011 to 2012. Data are 5-day moving average. There is a vertical line marking the August FOMC. There are two series, Treasury repo rate and Fed funds rate. Treasury repo rate begins in March 2011 at about 16 and generally decreases to about 1 by July 2011. It generally increases to about 27 by June 2012 and then decreases to about 21 by September 4, 2012. Federal funds rate begins in February 2011 at about 17.5 and generally decreases to about 6 by August 2011. It generally increases to about 17 by July 2012 and then decreases to about 14 by September 4, 2012.
Note: Weighted average of interest rates paid on general collateral finance (GCF) repurchase agreements (repos) based on Treasury securities.
Source: Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation.
Figure: Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Overnight Spreads
Line chart, by basis points, 2011 to 2012. Data are 5-day moving average. There is a vertical line marking the August FOMC. There are two series, U.S. sponsor and European sponsor. U.S. sponsor begins in January 2011 at about 5 and generally increases to about 24 by January 2012. It then generally decrease to about 6 by September 4, 2012. European sponsor begins in January 2011 at about 5 and generally increases to about 65 by January 2012. It then generally decreases t about 10 by September 4, 2012.
Note: Spreads computed over the AA nonfinancial unsecured rate.
Source: Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation.
Other Domestic Asset Market Developments
Figure: S&P 500 Stock Price Index
Line chart, by log scale where July 31, 2012 = 100, 2010 to 2012. Data are daily. There is a vertical line representing the August FOMC. The series begins in January 2010 at about 82 and generally increases to about 96 by January 2011. It generally decreases to about 80 by September 2011 and then generally increases to about 102 by September 4, 2012.
Source: Bloomberg.
Figure: Equity Risk Premium
Line chart, by percent, 1992 to 2012. Data are monthly. There is a vertical line representing the August FOMC. There are two series, Expected 10-year real equity return and Expected real yield on 10-year Treasury. Expected 10-year real equity return begins in 1992 at about 7.9 and generally decreases to about 2.1 by 2000. It generally increases to about 12 by 2008 and then generally decreases to about 8.5 by September 4, 2012. Expected real yield on 10-year Treasury begins in 1992 at about 4.2 and generally decreases to about 1.7 by 2003. It then generally decreases to about -0.5 by 2012.
Note: Expected real yield on 10-year Treasury is off-the-run 10-year Treasury yield less Philadelphia Fed 10-year expected inflation. There is a plus sign at the end of each series that denotes the latest observation using daily interest rates and stock prices and latest earnings data.
Source: Thomson Financial.
Figure: Implied Volatility on S&P 500 (VIX)
Line chart, by percent, log scale, 2007 to 2012. Data are daily. There is a vertical line marking the August FOMC. The series begins in 2007 at about 7 and generally increases to about 80 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about 18 by September 4, 2012.
Note: Option-implied one-month-ahead volatility on the S&P 500 index.
Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.
Figure: Revision to S&P 500 Earnings per Share
Line chart, by percent, 1997 to 2012. Data are monthly. There is a horizontal line at zero. The series begins in 1997 at about 0 and generally decreases to about -6 by 2001. It generally increases to about 2 by 2004 and then generally decreases to about -14 by 2009. It generally increases to about 3 by 2010 and then generally decrease to about -1 by Mid-August 2012.
Note: Weighted average of the percent change in the consensus forecasts of current-year and following-year earnings per share. EPS revision is -17.22 percent in February 2009.
Source: Thomson Financial.
Figure: Corporate Bond Spreads
Line chart, by basis points, 2007 to 2012. Data are daily. There is a vertical line marking the August FOMC. There are two series, 10-year high-yield and 10-year BBB. 10-year high-yield begins in 2007 at about 260 and generally increases to about 1625 by 2009. It then generally decreases to about 500 by September 4, 2012. 10-year BBB scale begins in 2007 at about 125 and generally increases to about 650 by 2009. It then generally decreases to about 275 by September 4, 2012.
Note: Measured relative to a smoother nominal off-the-run Treasury yield curve.
Source: Merrill Lynch and staff estimates.
Figure: Spread on 30-Day A2/P2 Commercial Paper
Line chart, by basis points, 2009 to 2012. Data are 5-day moving average. There is a vertical line marking the August FOMC. The series begins in April 2009 at about 90 and generally decreases to about 17.5 by March 2010. It then generally increases to about 30 by September 4, 2012.
Note: The A2/P2 spread is the A2/P2 nonfinancial rate minus the AA nonfinancial rate. There is a plus sign at the end of the series that denotes the latest available single-day observation.
Source: Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation.
Business Finance
Figure: Financial Ratios for Nonfinancial Corporations
Line chart, by ratio, 1992 to 2012. There are two series, Debt over total assets and Liquid assets over total assets. Debt over total assets begins in 1992 at about 0.33 and generally decreases to about 0.245 by 2004. It generally increases to about 0.29 by 2008 and then generally decreases to about 0.265 by 2012:Q2 preliminary. Liquid assets over total assets begins in 1992 at about 0.053 and generally increases to about 0.0105 by 2004. It generally decreases to about 0.089 by 2008 and then increases to about 0.0107 by 2012:Q2 preliminary.
Note: Data are annual through 1999 and quarterly thereafter.
Source: Compustat.
Figure: Bond Ratings Changes of Nonfinancial Firms
Bar chart, by percent of outstandings, 1991 to 2012. There is a horizontal line at zero. Data are by annual rate. There are two series, Upgrades and Downgrades. Upgrades begins in 1991 at about 10 and generally increases to about 20 by 1995. It generally decreases to about 2.5 by 2002 and then generally increases to about 10 by 2007. It generally increases to about 15 by 2012:Q1 and then decreases to about 5 by July-August 2012. Downgrades begins in 1992 at about -33 and generally decreases to about -43 by 1993. It generally increases to about -7 by 1997 and then generally decreases to about -38 by 2002. It generally increases to about -7 by July-August 2012.
Source: Calculated using data from Moody's Investors Service.
Figure: Selected Components of Net Debt Financing, Nonfinancial Firms
Bar chart, by billions of dollars, 2008 to 2012. Data are monthly rate. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are three series, Bonds, C&I loans, and Commercial paper. There is also a series represented by a line chart, called Total. Approximate values are: 2008: Bonds 17, C&I loans 25, Commercial paper 26, Total 24; 2009: Bonds 30 C&I loans -25, Commercial paper -30, Total 0; 2010: Bonds 31, C&I loans -5, Commercial paper 33, Total 29; 2011:H1: Bonds 31, C&I loans 42, Commercial Paper 45, Total 45; 2011:H2: Bonds 28, C&I loans 40, Commercial paper 42, Total 42; 2012:Q1: Bonds 40, C&I loans 45, Commercial paper 0, Total 45; 2012:Q2: Bonds 35, C&I loans 47, Commercial paper 50, Total 50; July 2012: Bonds 47, C&I loans 48, Commercial paper -2, Total 47; August 2012 estimate: Bonds 45; C&I loans 60, Commercial paper -1, Total 59.
Note: C&I loans and Commercial paper are on a period-end basis, seasonally adjusted.
Source: Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation; Thomson Financial; Federal Reserve Board.
Figure: U.S. CLO Issuance
Bar chart, by billions of dollars, 2000 to 2012. Data are annual rate. There are two series, Issuance and Pipeline. Approximate values are: 2000: Issuance 0, Pipeline 0; 2001: Issuance 4, Pipeline 0; 2002: Issuance 6, Pipeline 0; 2003: Issuance 13, Pipeline 0; 2004: Issuance 30, Pipeline 0; 2005: Issuance 58, Pipeline 0; 2006: Issuance 87, Pipeline 0; 2007: Issuance 90, Pipeline 0; 2008: Issuance 20, Pipeline 0; 2009: Issuance 1, Pipeline 0; 2010: Issuance 5, Pipeline 0; 2011: Issuance 12, Pipeline 0; 2012:H1: Issuance 35, Pipeline 40.
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC LoanConnector.
Figure: Selected Components of Net Equity Issuance, Nonfinancial Firms
Bar chart, by billions of dollars, 2008 to 2012. Data are monthly rate. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are four series, Public issuance, Private issuance, Repurchases, and Cash mergers. There is a fifth series, Total, represented by line chart. Approximate values are: 2008: Public issuance 25, Private issuance 24, Repurchases -30, Cash mergers -48, Total -21; 2009: Public issuance 20, Private issuance 15, Repurchases -15, Cash mergers -24, Total -1; 2010: Public Issuance 15, Private issuance 10, Repurchases -25, Cash mergers -30, Total -24; 2011:H1: Public Issuance 17, Private issuance 10, Repurchases -27, Cash mergers -43, Total -27; 2011:H2: Public Issuance 16, Private issuance 10, Repurchases -32, Cash mergers -52, Total -45, 2012:Q1: Public issuance 18, Private issuance 10, Repurchases -27, Cash mergers -42, Total -25; 2012:Q2 preliminary: Public issuance 18, Private issuance 10, Repurchases -27, Cash mergers -51, Total -46.
Source: Thomson Financial, Investment Benchmark Report; Money Tree Report by PricewaterhouseCoopers, National Venture Capital Association, and Venture Economics.
Figure: CMBS Issuance
Bar chart, by billions of dollars, 2008 to 2012. Data are annual rate. There is a horizontal line at zero. Approximate values are: 2008: 12, 2009: 1, 2010: 10, 2011:H1: 32, 2011:H2: 29, 2012:Q1: 17, 2012:Q2: 43, July 2012: 40, August 2012: 43.
Source: Commercial Mortgage Alert.
Household Finance
Figure: Mortgage Rate and MBS Yield
Line chart, by percent, 2007 to 2012. There is a vertical line marking the August FOMC. There are two series, 30-year conforming fixed mortgage rate and MBS yield. 30-year conforming fixed mortgage rate begins in 2007 at about 6.4 and generally increases to about 6.55 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about 3.49 by September 4, 2012. MBS yield begins in 2007 at about 5.6 and generally increases to about 6.1 by 2008. It then generally decreases to about 2.4 by September 4, 2012.
Note: For mortgage-backed securities (MBS) yield, the data are daily and consist of the Fannie Mae 30-year current-coupon rate; for mortgage rate, the data are weekly before 2010 and daily thereafter.
Source: For MBS yield, Barclays; for mortgage rate, Freddie Mac (before 2010) and Loansifter (from 2010).
Figure: Refinance Loan Originations
Line chart, by billions of dollars, 2002 to 2012. Data are monthly. The series begins in 2002 at about 105 and generally increases to about 350 by 2003. It generally decreases to about 30 by 2008 and then generally increases to about 140 by August 2012.
Note: Seasonally adjusted by FRB staff.
Source: Staff estimates.
Figure: Prices of Existing Homes
Line chart, by index peak normalized to 100, 2005 to 2012. Data are monthly. The series begins in 2005 at about 86 and generally increases to about 100 by 2006. It generally decreases to about 71 by 2009 and then decreases to about 67 by 2011. It then generally increases to about 70 by July 2012.
Source: CoreLogic.
Figure: Delinquencies on Prime Mortgages, Transition Rate
Line chart, by percent of loans, 2003 to 2012. There are two series, 3-month moving average and Monthly rate. 3-month moving average begins in 2003 at about 1.08 and generally decreases to about 0.82 by 2005. It generally increases to about 1.44 by 2008 and then generally decreases to about 0.97 by June 2012. Monthly rate begins in 2003 at about 1.06 and generally decreases to about 0.8 by 2006. It generally increases to about 1.74 by 2008 and then generally decreases to about 1 by June 2012.
Note: Percent of previously current mortgages that transition to being at least 30 days delinquent each month.
Source: LPS Applied Analytics.
Figure: Consumer Credit
Line chart, by percent change, annual rate, 2004 to 2012. Data are 3-month moving average. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Nonrevolving and Revolving. Nonrevolving begins in 2004 at about 5.75 and generally decreases to about -3.8 by 2008. It generally increases to about 12 by 2011 and then generally decreases to about 8 by June 2012. Revolving begins in 2004 at about 2.8 and generally increases to about 6 by 2007. It generally decreases to about -14 by 2010 and then generally increases to about -1 by June 2012.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Figure: Gross Consumer ABS Issuance
Bar chart, by billions of dollars, 2007 to 2012. Data are monthly rate. There are three series, Student loan, Credit card, and Auto. Approximate values are: 2007: Student loan 19, Credit card 14.5, Auto 6.3; 2008: Student loan 10.5, Credit card 8, Auto 3; 2009: Student loan 10.5, Credit card 9, Auto 4; 2010: Student loan 6.5, Credit card 5, Auto 4; 2011: Student loan 7, Credit card, 6, Auto 4.5; 2012:Q1: Student loan 9.5, Credit card 8, Auto 7; 2012:Q2: Student loan 13, Credit card 10, Auto 7; 2012:J: Student loan 13.7, Credit card 11, Auto 8; 2012:A: Student loan 10.6, Credit card 10, Auto 4.
Source: Inside MBS & ABS; Merrill Lynch; Bloomberg; Federal Reserve Board.
Commercial Banking and Money
Figure: Changes in Bank Credit
Line chart, by percent, 2005 to 2012. Data are 3-month change, annual rate. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Total bank credit and C&I loans. Total bank credit begins in 2005 at about 10 and generally decreases to about -12 by 2009. It then generally increases to about 4 by August 2012. C&I loans begins in 2005 at about 12.5 and generally increases to about 27 by 2007. It generally decreases to about -28 by 2009 and then generally increases to about 15 by August 2012.
Note: The data have been adjusted to remove the estimated effects of certain changes to accounting standards and nonbank structure activity of $5 billion or more.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Figure: Return on Assets and Return on Equity
Line chart, by percent, 1997 to 2012. Data are quarterly, s.a.a.r. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, ROA and ROE. ROA begins in 1997 at about 1.15 where it remains relatively constant until 2007. It generally decreases to about -1.75 by 2008 and then generally increases to about 0.7 by 2012:Q2. ROE begins in 1997 at about 15 where it remains relatively constant until 2007. It generally decreases to about -22.5 by 2008 and then generally increases to about 10 by 2012:Q2.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, FR-Y9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Bank Holding Companies.
Figure: Provisions and Charge-Offs
Bar chart, by billions of dollars, 2005 to 2012. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are two series, Provisions for loan and lease losses and Net charge-offs. There are 2 other series, ALLL and Provisions - charge-offs, that are represented by line chart. Provisions for loan and lease losses begins in 2005 at about 15 where it remains relatively constant until mid-2007. It generally increases to about 80 by 2008 and then generally decreases to about 20 by 2010. It then decreases to about 15 by 2012. Net charge-offs begins in 2005 at about -10 where it remains relatively constant until late 2007. It decreases to about -60 by 2009 and then increases to about -20 by 2012. ALL begins in 2005 at about 75 and generally increases to about 275 by 2010. It then generally decreases to about 175 by 2012. Provisions - charge-offs begins in 2005 at about 0 where it remains relatively constant until 2007. It generally increases to about 40 by 2008 and then decreases to about -20 by 2010. It then increases to about -10 by 2012.
Note: ALLL allowance for loan and lease losses.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Bank Holding Companies.
Figure: Regulatory Capital Ratios, All BHCs
Line chart, by percent, 1998 to 2012. Data are quarterly, s.a. There are three series, Total (Tier 1 + Tier 2), Tier 1 ratio, and Leverage ratio. Total (Tier 1 + Tier 2) begins in 1998 at about 12.4 and generally decreases to about 11.6 by 2008. It then generally increases to about 15.8 by 2012. Tier 1 ratio begins in 1997 at about 9 and generally increases to about 9.6 by 2004. It generally decreases to about 8 by 2008 and then generally increases to about 13 by 2012. Leverage ratio begins in 1998 at about 7.2 and generally decreases to about 5.8 by 2008. It then generally increases to about 8 by 2012.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Bank Holding Companies.
Growth of M2 and Its Components
Percent, s.a.a.r.
M2 | Liquid deposits |
Small time deposits |
Retail MMFs |
Curr. | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | 9.7 | 15.4 | -18.5 | -2.1 | 8.8 |
2012:H1 | 6.9 | 10.4 | -16.5 | -7.2 | 9.4 |
2012:Q2 | 4.9 | 7.8 | -19.3 | -4.7 | 8.0 |
June 2012 | 5.7 | 8.3 | -16.9 | -.9 | 6.8 |
July 2012 | 9.2 | 13.3 | -19.4 | -4.5 | 7.1 |
Aug. 2012 (e) | 3.0 | 5.0 | -18.8 | -5.6 | 8.2 |
Note: Retail MMFs are retail money market funds.
e Estimate. Return to table
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Figure: Level of Liquid Deposits
Line chart, by trillions of dollars, 2008 to 2012. Data are weekly. There is a vertical line marking the August FOMC. The series begins in 2008 at about 4.5 and generally increases to about 7.7 by August 20, 2012.
Note: Seasonally adjusted.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Note: The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.
[Box:] Bank Funding Consultations
Figure: Noninterest-Bearing Transaction Deposits in Excess of $250,000
Bar chart, by billions of dollars, 2010 to 2012. Approximate values are: 2010:Q4: 1000, 2011:Q1: 1025, 2011:Q2: 1125, 2011:Q3: 1350, 2011:Q4: 1500, 2012:Q1: 1475, 2012:Q2: 1500.
Source: Commercial bank Call Reports.
[Box:] Balance Sheet Developments over the Intermeeting Period
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
Billions of dollars
Change since last FOMC |
Current (08/31/12) |
|
---|---|---|
Total assets | -32 | 2,816 |
Selected assets: | ||
Liquidity programs for financial firms | -7 | 24 |
Primary, secondary, and seasonal credit | +0 | +0 |
Foreign central bank liquidity swaps | -8 | 23 |
Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) | -1 | 2 |
Net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLCs | -6 | 4 |
Maiden Lane | -0 | 2 |
Maiden Lane II | -0 | +0 |
Maiden Lane III | -6 | 2 |
Securities held outright* | -16 | 2,573 |
U.S. Treasury securities | -2 | 1,642 |
Agency debt securities | -4 | 87 |
Agency mortgage-backed securities | -10 | 844 |
Total liabilities | -32 | 2,761 |
Selected liabilities: | ||
Federal Reserve notes in circulation | 14 | 1,086 |
Reverse repurchase agreements | 3 | 94 |
Foreign official and international accounts | 3 | 94 |
Others | 0 | 0 |
Reserve balances of depository institutions** | 17 | 1,515 |
Term deposits held by depository institutions | -3 | 0 |
U.S. Treasury, General Account | -60 | 30 |
U.S. Treasury, Supplementary Financing Account | 0 | 0 |
Other deposits | -0 | 19 |
Total capital | -0 | 55 |
Note: +0 (-0) denotes positive (negative) value rounded to zero. Return to table
* Par value. Return to table
** Includes overdrafts. Return to table
Risks and Uncertainty
Alternative Scenarios
(Percent change, annual rate, from end of preceding period except as noted)
Measure and scenario | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016-17 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
H1 | H2 | |||||
Real GDP | ||||||
Extended Tealbook baseline | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 |
Fiscal cliff | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.8 |
European crisis with severe spillovers | 1.8 | -1.2 | -3.1 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 4.0 |
Faster European recovery | 1.8 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 2.7 |
Faster domestic recovery | 1.8 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
Higher oil prices | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
Damaged labor market | 1.8 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
Protracted headwinds | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
Unemployment rate1 | ||||||
Extended Tealbook baseline | 8.2 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 5.7 |
Fiscal cliff | 8.2 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 5.8 |
European crisis with severe spillovers | 8.2 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 7.7 |
Faster European recovery | 8.2 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 5.2 |
Faster domestic recovery | 8.2 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.6 |
Higher oil prices | 8.2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 5.9 |
Damaged labor market | 8.2 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
Protracted headwinds | 8.2 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 7.4 |
Total PCE prices | ||||||
Extended Tealbook baseline | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
Fiscal cliff | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
European crisis with severe spillovers | 1.6 | .3 | -.8 | .7 | 1.7 | 2.1 |
Faster European recovery | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
Faster domestic recovery | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
Higher oil prices | 1.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
Damaged labor market | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
Protracted headwinds | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.2 | .8 | .7 | .8 |
Core PCE prices | ||||||
Extended Tealbook baseline | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
Fiscal cliff | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
European crisis with severe spillovers | 2.0 | .9 | .3 | .9 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
Faster European recovery | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
Faster domestic recovery | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
Higher oil prices | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
Damaged labor market | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
Protracted headwinds | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | .9 | .9 |
Federal funds rate1 | ||||||
Extended Tealbook baseline | .2 | .1 | .1 | .6 | 2.1 | 3.5 |
Fiscal cliff | .2 | .1 | .1 | .1 | .7 | 3.3 |
European crisis with severe spillovers | .2 | .1 | .1 | .1 | .1 | 1.6 |
Faster European recovery | .2 | .1 | .1 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 4.3 |
Faster domestic recovery | .2 | .2 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 |
Higher oil prices | .2 | .1 | .1 | .4 | 1.5 | 3.1 |
Damaged labor market | .2 | .1 | .6 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 4.5 |
Protracted headwinds | .2 | .1 | .1 | .1 | .1 | .1 |
1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period. Return to table
Forecast Confidence Intervals and Alternative Scenarios
Confidence Intervals Based on FRB/US Stochastic Simulations
Figure: Real GDP
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2008 to 2017. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are ten series, Extended Tealbook baseline, Fiscal cliff, European crisis with severe spillovers, Faster European recovery, Faster domestic recovery, Higher oil prices, Damaged labor market, Protracted headwinds, 70 percent interval and 90 percent interval. Extended Tealbook baseline begins in 2008 at about 2 and decreases to about -4.6 by 2009. It increases to about 2.9 by 2010 and then generally increases to about 3.5 by 2015. It then generally decreases to about 3 by 2017. Fiscal cliff begins in 2012 at about 2.25 and generally decreases to about 1 by 2013. It increases to about 4.15 by 2015 and then decreases to about 3.6 by 2017. European crisis with severe spillovers begins in 2012 at about 2.25 and decreases to about -3.5 by 2013. It generally increases to about 4.1 by 2017. Faster European recovery begins in 2012 at about 2.25 and generally increases to about 4 by 2014. It then generally decreases to about 2.6 by 2017. Faster domestic recovery begins in 2012 at about 2.25 and generally increases to about 4.6 by 2013. It then generally decreases to about 2.25 by 2017. Higher oil prices begins in 2012 At about 2.25 and generally decreases to about 1.25 by 2013. It then generally increases to about 3.25 by 2017. Damaged labor market begins in 2012 at about 2.25 and generally increases to about 2.8 by 2015. It then generally decreases to about 2 by 2017. Protracted headwinds begins in 2012 at about 2.2.5 and generally increases to about 2.9 by 2017. The other two series, 90 percent interval and 70 percent interval closely track each other with 90 percent interval being about 1.1 percent both greater and less than 70 percent interval. 70 percent interval begins in 2012 at about 0.8 and 2.5 and generally increases to about 1.4 and 5.3 by 2015. It ends in 2017 at about 1 and 5.
Figure: Unemployment Rate
Line chart, by percent, 2008 to 2017. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are ten series, Extended Tealbook baseline, Fiscal cliff, European crisis with severe spillovers, Faster European recovery, Faster domestic recovery, Higher oil prices, Damaged labor market, Protracted headwinds, 70 percent interval and 90 percent interval. Extended Tealbook baseline begins in 2008 at about 5 and generally increases to about 10 by 2009. It then generally decreases to about 7.75 by 2017. Fiscal cliff begins in 2012 at about 8.25 and generally increases to about 8.6 by 2014. It then generally decreases to about 5.75 by 2017. European crisis with severe spillovers begins in 2012 at about 8.25 and generally increases to about 11 by 2014. It then generally decreases to about 7.75 by 2017. Faster European recovery begins in 2012 at about 8.25 and generally decreases to about 5.25 by 2017. Faster domestic recovery begins in 2012 at about 8.25 and generally decreases to about 5.6 by 2017. Higher oil prices begins in 2012 at about 8.25 and generally decreases to about 6 by 2017. Damaged labor market begins in 2012 at about 8.25 and generally decreases to about 7.4 by 2017. Protracted headwinds begins in 2012 at about 8.25 and generally decreases to about 7.45 by 2017. The other two series, 90 percent interval and 70 percent interval closely track each other with 90 percent interval being about 0.6 both greater and less than 70 percent interval. 70 percent interval begins in 2012 at about 8 and 8.15 and increases to about 6.5 and 8.6 by 2014. It ends in 2017 at about 4.7 and 6.8.
Figure: PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy
Line chart, by 4-quarter percent change, 2008 to 2012. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are ten series, Extended Tealbook baseline, Fiscal cliff, European crisis with severe spillovers, Faster European recovery, Faster domestic recovery, Higher oil prices, Damaged labor market, Protracted headwinds, 70 percent interval and 90 percent interval. Extended Tealbook baseline begins in 2008 at about 2.3 and generally decreases to about 1.15 by 2010. It increases to about 2 by 2012 and then decreases to about 1.6 by 2013. It ends in 2017 at about 1.8. Fiscal cliff begins in 2012 at about 1.7 and generally decreases to about 1.5 by 2017. European crisis with severe spillovers begins in 2012 at about 1.7 and decreases to about 0.4 by 2013. It then generally increases to about 2.05 by 2017. Faster European recovery begins in 2012 at about 1.7 and generally increases to about 2.2 by 2014. It then generally decreases to about 20.5 by 2017. Faster domestic recovery begins in 2012 at about 1.7 and generally increases to about 2.25 by 2017. Higher oil prices begins in 2012 at about 1.7 and generally increases to about 1.9 by 20187. Damaged labor market begins in 2012 at about 1.7 and generally increases to about 2.5 by 2017. Protracted headwinds begins in 2012 at about 1.7 and generally decreases to about 0.7 by 2017. The other two series, 90 percent interval and 70 percent interval closely track each other with 90 percent interval being about 0.6 percent greater and less than the 70 percent interval. 70 percent interval begins in 2012 at about 1.5 and 2 and generally increases to about 0.75 and 2.5 by 2014. It ends in 2017 at about 1 and 2.8.
Figure: Federal Funds Rate
Line chart, by percent, 2008 to 2012. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are ten series, Extended Tealbook baseline, Fiscal cliff, European crisis with severe spillovers, Faster European recovery, Faster domestic recovery, Higher oil prices, Damaged labor market, Protracted headwinds, 70 percent interval and 90 percent interval. Extended Tealbook baseline begins in 2008 at about 3.1 and generally decreases to about 0.1 by 2009. It remains relatively constant here 2014. It then increases to about 3.5 by 2017. Fiscal cliff begins in 2012 at about 0.1 where it remains relatively constant until 2015. It then increases to about 3.1 by 2017. European crisis with severe spillovers begins in 2012 at about 0.1 where it remains relatively constant until 2016. It then increases to about 1.5 by 2017. Faster European recovery begins in 2012 at about 0.1 where it remains relatively constant until 2014. It then increases to about 4.2 by 2017. Faster domestic recovery begins in 2012 at about 0.1 where it remains until 2013. It then increases to about 4 by 2017. Higher oil prices begins in 2012 at about 0.1 where it remains relatively constant until 2014. It then increases to about 3 by 2017. Damaged labor market begins in 2012 at about 0.1 where it remains relatively constant until 2013. It then increases to about 4.5 by 2017. Protracted headwinds begins in 2012 at about 0.1 where it remains relatively constant until 2017. The other two series, 90 percent interval and 70 percent interval closely track each other with 90 percent interval being about 1.25 percent greater and less than the 70 percent interval. 70 percent interval begins in 2012 at about 0.1 and 0.5 and then increases to about 0.5 and 3 by 2015. It ends in 2017 at about 1.75 and 5.5.
Selected Tealbook Projections and 70 Percent Confidence Intervals Derived from Historical Tealbook Forecast Errors and FRB/US Simulations
Measure | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP (percent change, Q4 to Q4) | ||||||
Projection | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
Confidence interval | ||||||
Tealbook forecast errors | .8-2.5 | .6-4.3 | 1.2-5.3 | … | … | … |
FRB/US stochastic simulations | 1.0-2.4 | 1.0-4.1 | 1.2-4.7 | 1.5-5.4 | 1.2-5.2 | 1.0-5.0 |
Civilian unemployment rate (percent, Q4) | ||||||
Projection | 8.3 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 5.7 |
Confidence interval | ||||||
Tealbook forecast errors | 7.9-8.6 | 7.2-8.8 | 6.3-9.0 | … | … | … |
FRB/US stochastic simulations | 8.1-8.5 | 7.3-8.7 | 6.6-8.7 | 5.8-8.0 | 5.2-7.3 | 4.7-6.8 |
PCE prices, total (percent change, Q4 to Q4) | ||||||
Projection | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
Confidence interval | ||||||
Tealbook forecast errors | 1.2-2.2 | .3-2.5 | .1-2.6 | … | … | … |
FRB/US stochastic simulations | 1.2-2.2 | .4-2.4 | .2-2.5 | .3-2.7 | .5-2.9 | .7-3.1 |
PCE prices excluding food and energy (percent change, Q4 to Q4) | ||||||
Projection | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
Confidence interval | ||||||
Tealbook forecast errors | 1.4-2.0 | .9-2.3 | .6-2.7 | … | … | … |
FRB/US stochastic simulations | 1.4-2.0 | .9-2.3 | .7-2.5 | .8-2.6 | .9-2.7 | 1.0-2.8 |
Federal funds rate (percent, Q4) | ||||||
Projection | .1 | .1 | .6 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 3.5 |
Confidence interval | ||||||
FRB/US stochastic simulations | .1-.4 | .1-1.6 | .1-2.9 | .4-4.0 | 1.1-4.9 | 1.8-5.6 |
Note: Shocks underlying FRB/US stochastic simulations are randomly drawn from the 1969-2009 set of model equation residuals.
Intervals derived from Tealbook forecast errors are based on projections made from 1979-2009, except for PCE prices excluding food and energy, where the sample is 1981-2009.
… Not applicable. The Tealbook forecast horizon has typically extended about 2 years. Return to table
Alternative Projections
(Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted)
Measure and projection | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Previous Tealbook | Current Tealbook | Previous Tealbook | Current Tealbook | Previous Tealbook | Current Tealbook | |
Real GDP | ||||||
Staff | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
FRB/US | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 2.9 |
EDO | 2.3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
Blue Chip | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | … | … |
Unemployment rate1 | ||||||
Staff | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 7.6 |
FRB/US | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 8.5 |
EDO | 8.0 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 7.4 |
Blue Chip | 8.1 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 7.7 | … | … |
Total PCE prices | ||||||
Staff | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
FRB/US | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
EDO | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Blue Chip2 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | … | … |
Core PCE prices | ||||||
Staff | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
FRB/US | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
EDO | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Blue Chip | … | … | … | … | … | … |
Federal funds rate1 | ||||||
Staff | .1 | .1 | .1 | .1 | .4 | .6 |
FRB/US | .0 | .2 | .1 | .2 | 1.3 | .9 |
EDO | .6 | .4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
Blue Chip3 | .1 | .1 | .3 | .2 | … | … |
Note: Blue Chip forecast completed on August 10, 2012.
1. Percent, average for Q4. Return to table
2. Consumer price index. Return to table
3. Treasury bill rate. Return to table
… Not applicable. The Blue Chip forecast typically extends about 2 years. Return to table
Tealbook Forecast Compared with Blue Chip
(Blue Chip survey released August 10, 2012)
Figure: Real GDP
Line chart, by percent change, annual rate, 2008 to 2013. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are three series, Staff forecast, Blue chip consensus, and Blue Chip top 10 and bottom 10 averages. Staff forecast begins in 2008 at about -1.9 and generally decreases to about -9 by late 2008. It generally increases to about 4 by 2009 and then decrease to about 0 by 2011. It generally increases to about 5 by late 2011 and then decreases to about 2.9 by 2013. Blue Chip consensus generally follows the same path as Staff forecast. Blue chip top 10 and bottom 10 averages begins in 2012 at about 1 and 2.4 and generally increases to about 0.5 and 3 by early 2013. It ends in late 2013 at about 2 and 4.
Figure: Real PCE
Line chart, by percent change, annual rate, 2008 to 2013. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are three series, Staff forecast, Blue chip consensus, and Blue Chip top 10 and bottom 10 averages. Staff forecast begins in 2008 at about -1 and decreases to about -5 by late 2008. It generally increases to about 4 by 2010 and then decreases to about 3 by 2013. Blue Chip consensus generally follows the same path as Staff forecast. Blue Chip top 10 and bottom 10 averages begins in 2012 at about 1 and 2.8 and increases to about -0.1 and 2.9 by early 2013. It ends in late 2013 at about 1.9 and 3.5.
Figure: Unemployment Rate
Line chart, by percent, 2008 to 2013. There are three series, Staff forecast, Blue chip consensus, and Blue Chip top 10 and bottom 10 averages. Staff forecast begins in 2008 at about 5 and generally increases to about 10 by 2009. It then generally decreases to about 8 by 2013. Blue Chip consensus generally follows the same path as Staff forecast until 2012 when it begins decreasing at a faster rate. It ends in 2013 at about 7.7. Blue chip top 10 and bottom 10 averages begins in 2012 at about 7.9 and 8 and generally increases to about 7.6 and 8.1 by early 2013. It ends in late 2013 at about 7.25 and 8.05.
Figure: Consumer Price Index
Line chart, by percent change, annual rate, 2008 to 2013. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are three series, Staff forecast, Blue chip consensus, and Blue Chip top 10 and bottom 10 averages. Staff forecast begins in 2008 at about 4.1 and generally decreases to about -9.5 by late 2008. It generally increases to about 4.8 by 2011 and then generally decreases to about 1.8 by 2013. Blue Chip consensus generally follows the same path as Staff forecast until 2012 when it begins increasing. It increases to about 2.1 by 2013. Blue Chip top 10 and bottom 10 averages begins in 2012 at about .8 and 2.5 and generally increases to about 1 and 3 by early 2013. It ends in late 2013 at about 1.5 and 3.
Figure: Treasury Bill Rate
Line chart, by percent, 2008 to 2013. There is a horizontal line at zero. There are three series, Staff forecast, Blue chip consensus, and Blue Chip top 10 and bottom 10 averages. Staff forecast begins in 2008 at about 2 and generally decrease to about 0.1 by 2009 where it remains relatively constant until 2013. Blue Chip consensus generally follows the same path as Staff Forecast. Blue Chip top 10 and bottom 10 averages begins in 2012 at about 0.1 and 0.15 and increases to about 0 and 0.2 by early 2013. It ends in late 2013 at about 0.05 and 0.5
Figure: 10-Year Treasury Yield
Line chart, by percent, 2008 to 2013. There are three series, Staff forecast, Blue chip consensus, and Blue Chip top 10 and bottom 10 averages. Staff forecast begins in 2008 at about 3.6 and generally decreases to about 2.7 by 2009. It increases to about 3.6 by 2010 and then decreases to about 1.6 by 2012. It then increases to about 2.9 by 2013. Blue Chip consensus generally follows the same path as Staff forecast until 2012 when it begins increasing at a slower rate. It end in 2013 at about 2.5. Blue Chip top 10 and bottom 10 averages begins in 2012 at about 1.5 and 1.8 and increases to about 1.6 and 2.2 by early 2013. It ends in late 2013 at about 1.8 and 3.35.
Note: The yield is for on-the-run Treasury securities. Over the forecast period, the staff's projected yield is assumed to be 15 basis points below the off-the-run yield.
Assessment of Key Macroeconomic Risks (1)
Probability of Inflation Events
(4 quarters ahead--2013:Q3)
Probability that the 4-quarter change in total PCE prices will be … | Staff | FRB/US | EDO | BVAR |
---|---|---|---|---|
Greater than 3 percent | ||||
Current Tealbook | .07 | .06 | .11 | .14 |
Previous Tealbook | .05 | .03 | .10 | .04 |
Less than 1 percent | ||||
Current Tealbook | .27 | .31 | .32 | .10 |
Previous Tealbook | .33 | .49 | .31 | .23 |
Probability of Unemployment Events
(4 quarters ahead--2013:Q3)
Probability that the unemployment rate will … | Staff | FRB/US | EDO | BVAR |
---|---|---|---|---|
Increase by 1 percentage point | ||||
Current Tealbook | .02 | .16 | .16 | .02 |
Previous Tealbook | .04 | .17 | .17 | .02 |
Decrease by 1 percentage point | ||||
Current Tealbook | .06 | .00 | .32 | .14 |
Previous Tealbook | .02 | .00 | .32 | .19 |
Probability of Near-Term Recession
Probability that real GDP declines in each of 2012:Q4 and 2013:Q1 | Staff | FRB/US | EDO | BVAR | Factor Model |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current Tealbook | .03 | .07 | .05 | .03 | .20 |
Previous Tealbook | .07 | .10 | .05 | .07 | .21 |
Note: "Staff" represents Tealbook forecast errors applied to the Tealbook baseline; baselines for FRB/US, BVAR, EDO, and the factor model are generated by those models themselves, up to the current-quarter estimate. The current quarter is taken as data from the staff estimate for the second Tealbook in each quarter, otherwise the preceding quarter is taken as the latest historical observation.
Assessment of Key Macroeconomic Risks (2)
Figure: Probability that Total PCE Inflation is above 3 Percent (4 quarters ahead)
Line chart, by probability, 1998 to 2012. There are two series, FRB/US and BVAR. FRB/US begins in 1998 at about 0 and generally fluctuates between 0 and .25 until about 2006. It increases to about .85 by 2008 and then decreases to about 0.08 by 2012. BVAR begins in 1998 at about 0 and increases to about 0.33 by 2001. It decrease to about 0.01 by 2002 and then increases to about .75 by 2008. It decreases to about .19 by 2010 and then increases to about .39 by 2011. It ends in 2012 at about 0.15.
Figure: Probability that Total PCE Inflation Is Below 1 Percent (4 quarters ahead)
Line chart, by probability, 1998 to 2012. There are two series, FRB/US and BVAR. FRB/US begins in 1998 at about 0 and generally increases to about 0.85 by 2004. It decreases to about 0.22 by 2006 and then increases to about 1 by 2009. It ends in 2012 at about 0.3. BVAR begins in 1998 at about 0.2 and generally increases to about 1 by 2002. It decreases to about 0.08 by 2006 and then increases to about 1 by 2009. It ends in 2012 at about 0.1.
Figure: Probability that the Unemployment Rate Increases 1 ppt (4 quarters ahead)
Line chart, by probability, 1998 to 2012. There are two series, FRB/US and BVAR. FRB/US begins in 1998 at about 0 and generally increases to about 0.7 by 2001. It generally decreases to about 0 by 2002 where it remains relatively constant until 2007. It increases to about 0.81 by 2009 and then decreases to about .15 by 2010. It ends in 2012 at about 0.18. BVAR begins in 1998 at about 0 and generally increases to about 0.6 by 2001. It decreases to about 0 by 2002 where it remains relatively constant until 2007. It increases to about 1 by 2008 and then decreases to about 0.02 by 2012.
Figure: Probability that the Unemployment Rate Decreases 1 ppt (4 quarters ahead)
Line chart, by probability, 1998 to 2012. There are two series, FRB/US and BVAR. FRB/US begins in 1998 at about 0 and generally increases to about 0.84 by 2003. It decreases to about 0 by 2006 and then increases to about 0.81 by 2010. It ends in 2012 at about 0. BVAR begins in 1998 at about 0.13 and decreases to about 0 by 2001. It increases to about .21 by 2004 and then decreases to about 0 by 2007. It increases to about 0.59 by 2011 and then decreases to about .175 by 2012.
Figure: Probability that Real GDP Declines in each of the Next Two Quarters
Line chart, by probability, 1998 to 2012. There are two series, FRB/US and BVAR. FRB/US begins in 1998 at about 0 where it remains relatively constant until about 2007. It increases to about 0.79 by 2009 and then decreases to about 0.09 by 2012. BVAR begins in 1998 at about 0 where it remains relatively constant until it increases to about 0.41 by 2001. It decreases to about 0 by 2002 where it remains relatively constant until 2007. It increases to about 0.99 by 2009 and then decreases to about 0.025 by 2012.
Note: See notes on facing page. Recession and inflation probabilities for FRB/US and the BVAR are real-time estimates. See Robert J. Tetlow and Brian Ironside (2007), "Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: The Fed, 1996-2003," Journal of Money and Banking, vol. 39 (October). pp. 1533-61.
Greensheets
Changes in GDP, Prices, and Unemployment
(Percent, annual rate except as noted)
Interval | Nominal GDP | Real GDP | PCE price index | Core PCE price index | Unemployment rate1 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07/25/12 | 09/05/12 | 07/25/12 | 09/05/12 | 07/25/12 | 09/05/12 | 07/25/12 | 09/05/12 | 07/25/12 | 09/05/12 | ||
Quarterly | |||||||||||
2011: | Q1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | .4 | .1 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
Q2 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 9.1 | 9.1 | |
Q3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 9.1 | 9.1 | |
Q4 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 8.7 | 8.7 | |
2012: | Q1 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 8.2 | 8.2 |
Q2 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | .8 | .7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 8.2 | 8.2 | |
Q3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | .8 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | |
Q4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 8.3 | 8.3 | |
2013: | Q1 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 8.2 | 8.2 |
Q2 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 8.2 | 8.2 | |
Q3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 8.1 | 8.1 | |
Q4 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 8.1 | 8.0 | |
Two-quarter2 | |||||||||||
2011: | Q2 | 3.5 | 3.7 | .8 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | -.5 | -.5 |
Q4 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | -.4 | -.4 | |
2012: | Q2 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.0 | -.5 | -.5 |
Q4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | .1 | .1 | |
2013: | Q2 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | -.1 | -.1 |
Q4 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | -.1 | -.2 | |
Four-quarter3 | |||||||||||
2010:Q4 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | -.3 | -.3 | |
2011:Q4 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | -.9 | -.9 | |
2012:Q4 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | -.4 | -.4 | |
2013:Q4 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | -.2 | -.3 | |
2014:Q4 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | -.3 | -.4 | |
Annual | |||||||||||
2010 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 9.6 | 9.6 | |
2011 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 8.9 | 8.9 | |
2012 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 8.2 | 8.2 | |
2013 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 8.2 | 8.1 | |
2014 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 8.0 | 7.8 |
1. Level, except for two-quarter and four-quarter intervals. Return to table
2. Percent change from two quarters earlier; for unemployment rate, change is in percentage points. Return to table
3. Percent change from four quarters earlier; for unemployment rate, change is in percentage points. Return to table
Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items
(Percent, annual rate except as noted)
Item | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2011 1 | 2012 1 | 2013 1 | 2014 1 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |||||
Real GDP | 2.5 | 1.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.2 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 3.2 |
Final sales | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | .8 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 3.1 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 1.8 | .9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 3.0 |
Priv. dom. final purch. | 2.5 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 4.0 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.8 |
Personal cons. expend. | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.4 |
Previous Tealbook | .7 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3.3 |
Durables | -2.3 | 5.4 | 13.9 | 11.5 | .0 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 8.1 |
Nondurables | -.3 | -.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | .5 | .9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.7 |
Services | 1.9 | 1.8 | .3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.9 |
Residential investment | 4.1 | 1.4 | 12.1 | 20.5 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 3.9 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 12.4 |
Previous Tealbook | 4.2 | 1.3 | 11.6 | 20.0 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 11.6 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 3.5 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 11.2 |
Business fixed invest. | 14.5 | 19.0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 3.1 | -1.0 | 1.5 | .6 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 10.2 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 5.7 |
Previous Tealbook | 10.3 | 15.7 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 5.1 | .6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 5.3 |
Equipment & software | 7.8 | 18.3 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 4.1 | .7 | 2.0 | .2 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 7.2 |
Previous Tealbook | 6.2 | 16.2 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 6.7 |
Nonres. structures | 35.2 | 20.7 | 11.5 | 12.9 | .5 | -5.0 | .5 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Previous Tealbook | 22.6 | 14.4 | -.9 | 1.9 | .5 | -1.8 | .7 | 1.0 | .8 | .8 | .7 | 4.4 | .3 | .8 | 1.6 |
Net exports2 | -400 | -398 | -418 | -416 | -405 | -405 | -411 | -412 | -414 | -414 | -423 | -408 | -409 | -416 | -430 |
Previous Tealbook2 | -416 | -403 | -411 | -407 | -405 | -417 | -429 | -434 | -442 | -444 | -453 | -414 | -414 | -443 | -462 |
Exports | 4.1 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 5.7 |
Imports | .1 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 4.8 |
Gov't. cons. & invest. | -.8 | -2.9 | -2.2 | -3.0 | -.7 | -1.7 | -1.1 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -3.3 | -1.6 | -1.5 | -1.1 |
Previous Tealbook | -.9 | -.1 | -4.2 | -4.0 | -3.0 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -1.6 | -2.8 | -2.4 | -1.4 | -.8 |
Federal | 2.8 | -4.3 | -4.4 | -4.2 | -.1 | -3.2 | -2.5 | -3.9 | -4.3 | -4.1 | -4.4 | -4.2 | -2.5 | -4.2 | -4.3 |
Defense | 8.3 | 2.6 | -10.6 | -7.1 | -.1 | -3.5 | -2.4 | -4.6 | -5.1 | -4.8 | -5.1 | -4.0 | -3.3 | -4.9 | -5.0 |
Nondefense | -7.5 | -17.4 | 10.2 | 1.8 | -.3 | -2.4 | -2.7 | -2.7 | -2.7 | -2.8 | -2.8 | -4.6 | -.9 | -2.7 | -2.9 |
State & local | -3.2 | -2.0 | -.7 | -2.2 | -1.0 | -.7 | -.2 | .1 | .3 | .3 | .4 | -2.7 | -1.0 | .3 | .9 |
Change in bus. inventories2 | 28 | -4 | 71 | 57 | 53 | 47 | 54 | 94 | 90 | 87 | 97 | 31 | 53 | 92 | 107 |
Previous Tealbook2 | 39 | -2 | 52 | 54 | 59 | 69 | 79 | 84 | 93 | 100 | 120 | 35 | 65 | 99 | 140 |
Nonfarm2 | 36 | -1 | 74 | 62 | 55 | 68 | 76 | 91 | 87 | 84 | 94 | 36 | 65 | 89 | 106 |
Farm2 | -6 | -3 | -2 | -3 | -2 | -21 | -21 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | -12 | 3 | 1 |
1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated. Return to table
2. Billions of chained (2005) dollars. Return to table
Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items
(Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise noted)
Item | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | -3.3 | -.1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.2 |
Previous Tealbook | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | -3.3 | -.5 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 3.2 |
Final sales | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | -2.6 | -.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 3.1 |
Previous Tealbook | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | -2.6 | -.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 3.0 |
Priv. dom. final purch. | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | -4.5 | -2.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 4.0 |
Previous Tealbook | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | -4.5 | -2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.8 |
Personal cons. expend. | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.7 | -2.5 | -.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.4 |
Previous Tealbook | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.7 | -2.5 | -.2 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3.3 |
Durables | 2.8 | 7.0 | 4.6 | -13.0 | 3.0 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 8.1 |
Nondurables | 3.1 | 2.9 | .8 | -3.1 | .4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.7 |
Services | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.4 | -.5 | -1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.9 |
Residential investment | 5.3 | -15.7 | -20.7 | -24.4 | -13.3 | -5.7 | 3.9 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 12.4 |
Previous Tealbook | 5.3 | -15.7 | -20.7 | -24.4 | -12.9 | -6.3 | 3.5 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 11.2 |
Business fixed invest. | 4.5 | 7.8 | 7.9 | -9.4 | -15.7 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 5.7 |
Previous Tealbook | 4.5 | 7.8 | 7.9 | -9.4 | -14.4 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 5.3 |
Equipment & software | 6.2 | 6.0 | 3.9 | -13.6 | -7.8 | 11.9 | 11.4 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 7.2 |
Previous Tealbook | 6.2 | 6.0 | 3.9 | -13.6 | -5.8 | 16.6 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 6.7 |
Nonres. structures | -.1 | 13.0 | 17.3 | -1.2 | -29.4 | -1.8 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Previous Tealbook | -.1 | 13.0 | 17.3 | -1.2 | -29.3 | -1.8 | 4.4 | .3 | .8 | 1.6 |
Net exports1 | -723 | -729 | -649 | -495 | -355 | -420 | -408 | -409 | -416 | -430 |
Previous Tealbook1 | -723 | -729 | -649 | -495 | -359 | -422 | -414 | -414 | -443 | -462 |
Exports | 6.7 | 10.2 | 10.1 | -2.5 | .3 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 5.7 |
Imports | 5.2 | 4.1 | .8 | -5.9 | -6.1 | 10.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 4.8 |
Gov't. cons. & invest. | .7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 4.0 | -1.3 | -3.3 | -1.6 | -1.5 | -1.1 |
Previous Tealbook | .7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | .1 | -2.8 | -2.4 | -1.4 | -.8 |
Federal | 1.2 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | -4.2 | -2.5 | -4.2 | -4.3 |
Defense | .4 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.0 | -4.0 | -3.3 | -4.9 | -5.0 |
Nondefense | 2.6 | -2.3 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 5.2 | -4.6 | -.9 | -2.7 | -2.9 |
State & local | .4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -.9 | 3.3 | -3.6 | -2.7 | -1.0 | .3 | .9 |
Change in bus. inventories1 | 50 | 59 | 28 | -36 | -139 | 51 | 31 | 53 | 92 | 107 |
Previous Tealbook1 | 50 | 59 | 28 | -36 | -145 | 59 | 35 | 65 | 99 | 140 |
Nonfarm1 | 50 | 63 | 29 | -38 | -138 | 58 | 36 | 65 | 89 | 106 |
Farm1 | 0 | -4 | -1 | 1 | -1 | -6 | -4 | -12 | 3 | 1 |
1. Billions of chained (2005) dollars. Return to table
Contributions to Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product
(Percentage points, annual rate except as noted)
Item | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2011 1 | 2012 1 | 2013 1 | 2014 1 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |||||
Real GDP | 2.5 | 1.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.2 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 3.2 |
Final sales | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | .8 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 3.1 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.8 | .9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3.0 |
Priv. dom. final purch. | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 3.3 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3.2 |
Personal cons. expend. | .7 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.6 | .8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.4 |
Previous Tealbook | .5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | .8 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.3 |
Durables | -.2 | .4 | 1.0 | .9 | .0 | .6 | .5 | .2 | .7 | .7 | .7 | .4 | .5 | .5 | .6 |
Nondurables | -.1 | -.1 | .3 | .3 | .1 | .1 | .3 | .2 | .3 | .3 | .3 | .2 | .2 | .3 | .4 |
Services | .9 | .9 | .2 | .6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | .8 | .5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | .7 | .9 | .9 | 1.4 |
Residential investment | .1 | .0 | .3 | .4 | .2 | .2 | .1 | .2 | .3 | .3 | .3 | .1 | .2 | .3 | .3 |
Previous Tealbook | .1 | .0 | .3 | .4 | .2 | .3 | .1 | .2 | .3 | .3 | .3 | .1 | .2 | .2 | .3 |
Business fixed invest. | 1.3 | 1.7 | .9 | .7 | .3 | -.1 | .2 | .1 | .5 | .6 | .6 | 1.0 | .3 | .4 | .6 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.0 | 1.5 | .5 | .3 | .5 | .1 | .3 | .2 | .4 | .5 | .5 | .8 | .3 | .4 | .6 |
Equipment & software | .5 | 1.2 | .6 | .4 | .3 | .0 | .1 | .0 | .4 | .5 | .5 | .8 | .2 | .4 | .5 |
Previous Tealbook | .4 | 1.1 | .6 | .3 | .5 | .1 | .3 | .2 | .3 | .4 | .4 | .7 | .3 | .4 | .5 |
Nonres. structures | .8 | .5 | .3 | .4 | .0 | -.1 | .0 | .0 | .1 | .1 | .1 | .2 | .1 | .1 | .1 |
Previous Tealbook | .5 | .4 | .0 | .1 | .0 | -.1 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .1 | .0 | .0 | .0 |
Net exports | .5 | .0 | -.6 | .1 | .3 | .0 | -.2 | .0 | -.1 | .0 | -.3 | .0 | .0 | -.1 | .0 |
Previous Tealbook | .2 | .4 | -.3 | .1 | .0 | -.4 | -.4 | -.2 | -.2 | -.1 | -.3 | .0 | -.2 | -.2 | -.1 |
Exports | .6 | .8 | .2 | .6 | .8 | .5 | .5 | .6 | .6 | .6 | .6 | .6 | .6 | .6 | .8 |
Imports | .0 | -.8 | -.9 | -.5 | -.5 | -.5 | -.7 | -.6 | -.7 | -.6 | -.9 | -.6 | -.6 | -.7 | -.8 |
Gov't. cons. & invest. | -.2 | -.6 | -.4 | -.6 | -.1 | -.3 | -.2 | -.3 | -.3 | -.3 | -.3 | -.7 | -.3 | -.3 | -.2 |
Previous Tealbook | -.2 | .0 | -.8 | -.8 | -.6 | -.3 | -.3 | -.2 | -.2 | -.3 | -.3 | -.6 | -.5 | -.3 | -.2 |
Federal | .2 | -.4 | -.4 | -.3 | .0 | -.2 | -.2 | -.3 | -.3 | -.3 | -.3 | -.4 | -.2 | -.3 | -.3 |
Defense | .5 | .2 | -.6 | -.4 | .0 | -.2 | -.1 | -.2 | -.3 | -.2 | -.2 | -.2 | -.2 | -.2 | -.2 |
Nondefense | -.2 | -.5 | .3 | .1 | .0 | -.1 | -.1 | -.1 | -.1 | -.1 | -.1 | -.1 | .0 | -.1 | -.1 |
State & local | -.4 | -.2 | -.1 | -.3 | -.1 | -.1 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .1 | -.3 | -.1 | .0 | .1 |
Change in bus. inventories | .0 | -1.1 | 2.5 | -.4 | -.2 | -.1 | .2 | 1.2 | -.1 | -.1 | .3 | .3 | -.1 | .3 | .1 |
Previous Tealbook | -.3 | -1.4 | 1.8 | .1 | .0 | .3 | .3 | .2 | .3 | .2 | .6 | .1 | .2 | .3 | .2 |
Nonfarm | .0 | -1.2 | 2.5 | -.4 | -.2 | .4 | .2 | .5 | -.1 | -.1 | .3 | .1 | .0 | .1 | .1 |
Farm | .0 | .1 | .1 | .0 | .0 | -.5 | .0 | .7 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .1 | -.1 | .2 | .0 |
1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated. Return to table
Changes in Prices and Costs
(Percent, annual rate except as noted)
Item | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2011 1 | 2012 1 | 2013 1 | 2014 1 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |||||
GDP chain-wt. price index | 2.6 | 3.0 | .4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Previous Tealbook | 2.5 | 2.6 | .9 | 2.0 | .8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
PCE chain-wt. price index | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 2.5 | .7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Previous Tealbook | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | .8 | .8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Energy | 20.5 | 4.7 | -5.0 | 8.1 | -13.5 | 10.3 | 2.5 | -6.5 | -2.4 | -2.5 | -2.2 | 11.9 | 1.4 | -3.4 | -2.2 |
Previous Tealbook | 15.0 | 3.3 | -3.2 | 7.9 | -13.6 | -12.1 | -.9 | -.7 | -1.1 | -1.6 | -1.3 | 12.8 | -5.1 | -1.2 | -1.7 |
Food | 6.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | .7 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.5 | .8 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 2.6 | .9 |
Previous Tealbook | 6.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | .7 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | .9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 2.4 | .9 |
Ex. food & energy | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Previous Tealbook | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Ex. food & energy, market based | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Previous Tealbook | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
CPI | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 2.5 | .8 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Previous Tealbook | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 2.5 | .8 | .7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
Ex. food & energy | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
Previous Tealbook | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
ECI, hourly compensation2 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
Previous Tealbook2 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
Nonfarm business sector | |||||||||||||||
Output per hour | 1.2 | .6 | 2.8 | -.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | .8 | .9 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | .6 | .8 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
Previous Tealbook | -.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | -.8 | -.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | .9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | .4 | .4 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
Compensation per hour | -.2 | .0 | -.7 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
Previous Tealbook | -.5 | 5.7 | -.4 | .5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
Unit labor costs | -1.3 | -.6 | -3.3 | 6.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | .8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Previous Tealbook | -.1 | 3.9 | -1.5 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.7 | .9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
Core goods imports chain-wt. price index3 | 7.2 | 2.3 | -.6 | -.2 | 1.2 | -2.6 | .4 | .9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 4.3 | -.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
Previous Tealbook3 | 7.2 | 2.4 | -.4 | .4 | 1.7 | -1.1 | .1 | .8 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4.3 | .3 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated. Return to table
2. Private-industry workers. Return to table
3. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Return to table
Changes in Prices and Costs
(Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise noted)
Item | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP chain-wt. price index | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.1 | .5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Previous Tealbook | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.1 | .7 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
PCE chain-wt. price index | 3.2 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Previous Tealbook | 3.2 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Energy | 21.5 | -3.7 | 19.3 | -8.8 | 2.7 | 6.5 | 11.9 | 1.4 | -3.4 | -2.2 |
Previous Tealbook | 21.5 | -3.7 | 19.3 | -8.8 | 2.6 | 6.2 | 12.8 | -5.1 | -1.2 | -1.7 |
Food | 1.5 | 1.7 | 4.7 | 7.0 | -1.7 | 1.3 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 2.6 | .9 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.5 | 1.7 | 4.7 | 7.0 | -1.7 | 1.3 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 2.4 | .9 |
Ex. food & energy | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Previous Tealbook | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Ex. food & energy, market based | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | .7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Previous Tealbook | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | .7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
CPI | 3.7 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Previous Tealbook | 3.7 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
Ex. food & energy | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | .6 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
Previous Tealbook | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | .6 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
ECI, hourly compensation1 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
Previous Tealbook1 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
Nonfarm business sector | ||||||||||
Output per hour | 1.6 | .8 | 2.5 | -1.1 | 5.6 | 1.8 | .6 | .8 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.6 | .8 | 2.5 | -1.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | .4 | .4 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
Compensation per hour | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
Previous Tealbook | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
Unit labor costs | 1.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 3.7 | -3.9 | -.2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Previous Tealbook | 1.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 3.7 | -3.3 | -.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
Core goods imports chain-wt. price index2 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.7 | -1.7 | 2.7 | 4.3 | -.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
Previous Tealbook2 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.7 | -1.7 | 2.6 | 4.3 | .3 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
1. Private-industry workers. Return to table
2. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Return to table
Other Macroeconomic Indicators
Item | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2011 1 | 2012 1 | 2013 1 | 2014 1 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |||||
Employment and production | |||||||||||||||
Nonfarm payroll employment2 | .6 | .3 | .5 | .7 | .3 | .3 | .4 | .4 | .4 | .5 | .5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.6 |
Unemployment rate3 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 7.6 |
Previous Tealbook3 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 7.8 |
NAIRU3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
Previous Tealbook3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
GDP gap4 | -4.9 | -5.0 | -4.4 | -4.4 | -4.4 | -4.5 | -4.6 | -4.6 | -4.5 | -4.3 | -4.1 | -4.4 | -4.6 | -4.1 | -3.1 |
Previous Tealbook4 | -4.8 | -4.8 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.7 | -4.8 | -4.8 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -4.8 | -4.6 | -4.5 | -4.8 | -4.6 | -3.6 |
Industrial production5 | 1.2 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
Previous Tealbook5 | 1.2 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.1 |
Manufacturing industr. prod.5 | .2 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 9.7 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 3.9 |
Previous Tealbook5 | .2 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 9.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 3.4 |
Capacity utilization rate - mfg.3 | 74.4 | 75.2 | 76.1 | 77.6 | 77.5 | 77.6 | 77.8 | 78.0 | 78.2 | 78.4 | 78.7 | 76.1 | 77.8 | 78.7 | 79.9 |
Previous Tealbook3 | 74.4 | 75.2 | 76.1 | 77.6 | 77.6 | 77.5 | 77.7 | 77.7 | 77.8 | 77.9 | 78.2 | 76.1 | 77.7 | 78.2 | 79.0 |
Housing starts6 | .6 | .6 | .7 | .7 | .7 | .8 | .8 | .9 | .9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | .6 | .8 | .9 | 1.1 |
Light motor vehicle sales6 | 12.2 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 14.2 | 14.1 | 14.3 | 14.4 | 14.6 | 14.9 | 15.1 | 15.3 | 12.7 | 14.2 | 15.0 | 15.8 |
Income and saving | |||||||||||||||
Nominal GDP5 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.7 |
Real disposable pers. income5 | -1.5 | -1.3 | -.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 2.8 | -1.3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | .3 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 3.5 |
Previous Tealbook5 | -.5 | .7 | .2 | .7 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.5 | -1.9 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.2 | .4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 |
Personal saving rate3 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.8 |
Previous Tealbook3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 4.1 |
Corporate profits7 | 19.3 | 6.7 | 29.6 | -10.4 | 2.2 | .3 | -3.9 | -6.0 | -1.9 | -2.4 | -1.1 | 9.2 | -3.1 | -2.9 | .5 |
Profit share of GNP3 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 11.7 | 11.0 | 10.6 |
Net federal saving8 | -1,308 | -1,232 | -1,183 | -1,059 | -1,095 | -1,035 | -1,057 | -801 | -781 | -765 | -753 | -1,237 | -1,061 | -775 | -715 |
Net state & local saving8 | -75 | -118 | -117 | -128 | -113 | -110 | -108 | -103 | -84 | -78 | -70 | -102 | -115 | -84 | -46 |
Gross national saving rate3 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 13.2 |
Net national saving rate3 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -.3 | -.3 | .0 | .2 | -.2 | .1 | .1 | .2 | .3 | -.3 | -.2 | .3 | .8 |
1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise indicated. Return to table
2. Change, millions. Return to table
3. Percent; annual values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table
4. Percent difference between actual and potential GDP; a negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Annual values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table
5. Percent change, annual rate. Return to table
6. Level, millions; annual values are annual averages. Return to table
7. Percent change, annual rate, with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Return to table
8. Billions of dollars; annual values are annual averages. Return to table
Other Macroeconomic Indicators
(Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise noted)
Item | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Employment and production | ||||||||||
Nonfarm payroll employment1 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | -2.8 | -5.6 | .8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.6 |
Unemployment rate2 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 7.6 |
Previous Tealbook2 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 7.8 |
NAIRU2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
Previous Tealbook2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
GDP gap3 | .6 | .8 | .8 | -4.5 | -5.7 | -4.7 | -4.4 | -4.6 | -4.1 | -3.1 |
Previous Tealbook3 | .6 | .8 | .9 | -4.5 | -6.1 | -4.4 | -4.5 | -4.8 | -4.6 | -3.6 |
Industrial production4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | -9.0 | -5.7 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
Previous Tealbook4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | -9.0 | -5.7 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.1 |
Manufacturing industr. prod.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | -11.8 | -6.5 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 3.9 |
Previous Tealbook4 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | -11.8 | -6.5 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 3.4 |
Capacity utilization rate - mfg.2 | 78.4 | 78.2 | 78.2 | 69.7 | 67.0 | 73.1 | 76.1 | 77.8 | 78.7 | 79.9 |
Previous Tealbook2 | 78.4 | 78.2 | 78.2 | 69.7 | 67.0 | 73.1 | 76.1 | 77.7 | 78.2 | 79.0 |
Housing starts5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | .9 | .6 | .6 | .6 | .8 | .9 | 1.1 |
Light motor vehicle sales5 | 16.9 | 16.5 | 16.1 | 13.1 | 10.4 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 14.2 | 15.0 | 15.8 |
Income and saving | ||||||||||
Nominal GDP4 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 4.9 | -1.2 | .4 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.7 |
Real disposable pers. income4 | .6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | -3.0 | 3.5 | .3 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 3.5 |
Previous Tealbook4 | .6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | -2.4 | 3.5 | .4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 |
Personal saving rate2 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.8 |
Previous Tealbook2 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 4.1 |
Corporate profits6 | 19.6 | 3.7 | -8.1 | -33.5 | 57.0 | 17.3 | 9.2 | -3.1 | -2.9 | .5 |
Profit share of GNP2 | 11.8 | 11.6 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 11.7 | 11.0 | 10.6 |
Net federal saving7 | -283 | -204 | -245 | -613 | -1229 | -1308 | -1237 | -1061 | -775 | -715 |
Net state & local saving7 | 26 | 51 | 12 | -72 | -113 | -90 | -102 | -115 | -84 | -46 |
Gross national saving rate2 | 15.6 | 16.5 | 13.9 | 12.6 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 13.2 |
Net national saving rate2 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | -.6 | -2.3 | -.6 | -.3 | -.2 | .3 | .8 |
1. Change, millions. Return to table
2. Percent; values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table
3. Percent difference between actual and potential GDP; a negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table
4. Percent change. Return to table
5. Level, millions; values are annual averages. Return to table
6. Percent change, with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Return to table
7. Billions of dollars; values are annual averages. Return to table
Staff Projections of Federal Sector Accounts and Related Items
(Billions of dollars except as noted)
Item | Fiscal year | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011a | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | Q1a | Q2a | Q3a | Q4a | Q1a | Q2a | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |
Unified budget | Not seasonally adjusted | |||||||||||||||
Receipts1 | 2302 | 2440 | 2680 | 2927 | 488 | 714 | 568 | 555 | 509 | 760 | 616 | 578 | 568 | 833 | 701 | 669 |
Outlays1 | 3599 | 3547 | 3517 | 3564 | 949 | 855 | 895 | 877 | 966 | 885 | 818 | 909 | 896 | 867 | 845 | 901 |
Surplus/deficit1 | -1297 | -1106 | -837 | -638 | -460 | -141 | -326 | -322 | -457 | -125 | -202 | -331 | -328 | -34 | -144 | -232 |
Previous Tealbook | -1297 | -1132 | -831 | -683 | -460 | -141 | -326 | -322 | -457 | -125 | -227 | -318 | -332 | -34 | -146 | -236 |
On-budget | -1364 | -1154 | -835 | -640 | -451 | -202 | -311 | -346 | -458 | -187 | -163 | -336 | -308 | -80 | -110 | -253 |
Off-budget | 67 | 48 | -2 | 2 | -10 | 61 | -15 | 24 | 1 | 62 | -39 | 6 | -20 | 46 | -34 | 21 |
Means of financing | ||||||||||||||||
Borrowing | 1110 | 1210 | 879 | 718 | 260 | 93 | 389 | 326 | 398 | 198 | 287 | 298 | 313 | 104 | 164 | 252 |
Cash decrease | 252 | -7 | -5 | 0 | 225 | -19 | 79 | -28 | 42 | -48 | 26 | 20 | 25 | -50 | 0 | 0 |
Other2 | -65 | -96 | -37 | -80 | -24 | 67 | -142 | 23 | 17 | -25 | -111 | 12 | -10 | -20 | -20 | -20 |
Cash operating balance, end of period | 58 | 65 | 70 | 70 | 118 | 137 | 58 | 86 | 43 | 91 | 65 | 45 | 20 | 70 | 70 | 70 |
NIPA federal sector | Seasonally adjusted annual rates | |||||||||||||||
Receipts | 2501 | 2644 | 2930 | 3147 | 2510 | 2523 | 2511 | 2534 | 2665 | 2681 | 2695 | 2730 | 2963 | 2996 | 3031 | 3067 |
Expenditures | 3767 | 3736 | 3781 | 3872 | 3737 | 3831 | 3743 | 3717 | 3724 | 3775 | 3730 | 3787 | 3764 | 3776 | 3796 | 3820 |
Consumption expenditures | 1064 | 1053 | 1040 | 1014 | 1054 | 1071 | 1069 | 1052 | 1056 | 1055 | 1049 | 1046 | 1044 | 1037 | 1031 | 1024 |
Defense | 713 | 701 | 689 | 668 | 697 | 717 | 731 | 704 | 703 | 701 | 696 | 694 | 693 | 687 | 682 | 676 |
Nondefense | 352 | 352 | 351 | 346 | 357 | 354 | 338 | 348 | 352 | 354 | 353 | 352 | 352 | 350 | 349 | 348 |
Other spending | 2702 | 2683 | 2741 | 2858 | 2683 | 2760 | 2674 | 2665 | 2668 | 2720 | 2681 | 2741 | 2719 | 2739 | 2765 | 2796 |
Current account surplus | -1265 | -1093 | -851 | -725 | -1227 | -1308 | -1232 | -1183 | -1059 | -1094 | -1035 | -1057 | -801 | -781 | -765 | -753 |
Gross investment | 163 | 155 | 150 | 141 | 161 | 163 | 159 | 159 | 152 | 156 | 154 | 153 | 151 | 148 | 146 | 144 |
Gross saving less gross investment3 | -1293 | -1107 | -855 | -716 | -1254 | -1335 | -1252 | -1203 | -1071 | -1109 | -1047 | -1067 | -807 | -783 | -765 | -749 |
Fiscal indicators4 | ||||||||||||||||
High-employment (HEB) surplus/deficit | -1018 | -863 | -587 | -491 | -974 | -1062 | -981 | -947 | -830 | -870 | -805 | -814 | -531 | -508 | -494 | -486 |
Change in HEB, percent of potential GDP | -.4 | -1.2 | -1.8 | -.7 | -.6 | .5 | -.6 | -.2 | -.8 | .2 | -.5 | .0 | -1.7 | -.2 | -.1 | -.1 |
Fiscal impetus (FI), percent of GDP | -0.5 | -0.6 | -1.2 | -0.5 | -0.8 | 0.3 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -2.0 | -1.1 | -0.9 | -0.8 |
Previous Tealbook | -0.4 | -0.8 | -1.2 | -0.5 | -0.7 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -1.1 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.1 | -0.9 | -0.8 |
1. Budget receipts, outlays, and surplus/deficit include corresponding social security (OASDI) categories. The OASDI surplus and the Postal Service surplus are excluded from the on-budget surplus and shown separately as off-budget, as classified under current law. Return to table
2. Other means of financing are checks issued less checks paid, accrued items, and changes in other financial assets and liabilities. Return to table
3. Gross saving is the current account surplus plus consumption of fixed capital of the general government as well as government enterprises. Return to table
4. HEB is gross saving less gross investment (NIPA) of the federal government in current dollars, with cyclically sensitive receipts and outlays adjusted to the staff's measure of potential output and the natural rate of unemployment. The sign on Change in HEB, as a percent of nominal potential GDP, is reversed. FI is the weighted difference of discretionary changes in federal spending and taxes in chained (2005) dollars, scaled by real GDP. The FI estimates are calendar year contributions to Q4/Q4 real GDP growth. Also, for FI and the change in HEB, positive values indicate aggregate demand stimulus. Quarterly figures for change in HEB and FI are not at annual rates. Return to table
a Actual. Return to table
Change in Debt of the Domestic Nonfinancial Sectors
(Percent)
Period1 | Total | Households | Business | State and local governments | Federal government | Memo: Nominal GDP | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | Home mortgages | Consumer credit | |||||||
Year | |||||||||
2007 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 13.6 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | |
2008 | 5.9 | -.1 | -.5 | .8 | 6.1 | .7 | 24.2 | -1.2 | |
2009 | 3.1 | -1.7 | -1.4 | -4.5 | -2.3 | 3.9 | 22.7 | .4 | |
2010 | 4.1 | -2.2 | -2.9 | -1.3 | .8 | 2.2 | 20.2 | 4.3 | |
2011 | 3.6 | -1.5 | -2.3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | -1.9 | 11.4 | 4.0 | |
2012 | 4.8 | .3 | -1.3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | -.1 | 11.3 | 3.7 | |
2013 | 4.1 | 1.9 | .6 | 6.6 | 4.3 | .6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | |
2014 | 3.9 | 2.4 | .9 | 7.4 | 4.5 | .9 | 5.8 | 4.7 | |
Quarter | |||||||||
2010: | 1 | 3.7 | -2.8 | -4.4 | -3.1 | .1 | 2.4 | 20.6 | 3.9 |
2 | 3.7 | -2.2 | -2.6 | -3.5 | -2.0 | -.5 | 22.5 | 4.1 | |
3 | 4.0 | -2.2 | -3.0 | -.6 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 16.0 | 4.6 | |
4 | 4.6 | -1.5 | -1.7 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 16.4 | 4.5 | |
2011: | 1 | 2.4 | -1.6 | -2.2 | 3.5 | 4.1 | -3.3 | 7.9 | 2.2 |
2 | 2.4 | -3.0 | -3.1 | 3.3 | 5.0 | -3.5 | 8.6 | 5.2 | |
3 | 4.5 | -1.1 | -2.3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | .0 | 14.1 | 4.3 | |
4 | 4.8 | -.2 | -1.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | -1.0 | 13.1 | 4.2 | |
2012: | 1 | 4.8 | -.4 | -2.9 | 5.9 | 5.3 | -1.8 | 12.4 | 4.2 |
2 | 5.1 | .0 | -1.4 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 11.6 | 3.3 | |
3 | 4.2 | .4 | -.8 | 4.5 | 5.0 | -.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | |
4 | 4.9 | 1.3 | .0 | 5.6 | 4.6 | .3 | 10.7 | 3.1 | |
2013: | 1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | .6 | 5.3 | 4.3 | .6 | 8.2 | 3.4 |
2 | 4.1 | 1.9 | .6 | 6.5 | 4.2 | .6 | 7.3 | 3.8 | |
3 | 3.2 | 2.0 | .6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | .6 | 4.0 | 4.1 | |
4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | .6 | 7.1 | 4.2 | .6 | 8.4 | 4.3 |
Note: Quarterly data are at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
1. Data after 2012:Q1 are staff projections. Changes are measured from end of the preceding period to end of period indicated except for annual nominal GDP growth, which is calculated from Q4 to Q4. Return to table
Flow of Funds Projections: Highlights
(Billions of dollars at seasonally adjusted annual rates except as noted)
Category | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |||||
Domestic nonfinancial sectors | ||||||||||||||
Net funds raised | ||||||||||||||
Total | 854.7 | 1456.8 | 1293.1 | 1280.0 | 1068.7 | 1391.5 | 1479.7 | 1498.1 | 1259.4 | 1589.8 | 1380.6 | 1319.9 | 951.0 | 1521.0 |
Net equity issuance | -472.7 | -387.2 | -340.0 | -360.0 | -617.5 | -438.2 | -344.9 | -463.9 | -380.0 | -360.0 | -340.0 | -340.0 | -340.0 | -340.0 |
Net debt issuance | 1327.3 | 1844.0 | 1633.1 | 1640.0 | 1686.3 | 1829.7 | 1824.6 | 1962.0 | 1639.4 | 1949.8 | 1720.6 | 1659.9 | 1291.0 | 1861.0 |
Borrowing indicators | ||||||||||||||
Debt (percent of GDP)1 | 248.9 | 249.4 | 251.3 | 250.2 | 247.5 | 247.8 | 248.2 | 249.3 | 249.5 | 250.4 | 251.2 | 251.5 | 251.2 | 251.0 |
Borrowing (percent of GDP) | 8.8 | 11.8 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 11.1 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 12.6 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 10.7 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 11.3 |
Households | ||||||||||||||
Net borrowing2 | -191.0 | 42.8 | 250.6 | 311.7 | -136.4 | -26.6 | -51.7 | 5.0 | 54.5 | 163.4 | 216.4 | 249.0 | 263.7 | 273.4 |
Home mortgages | -232.6 | -124.9 | 58.3 | 83.2 | -230.0 | -168.0 | -285.3 | -136.5 | -77.7 | 0.0 | 58.2 | 58.3 | 58.3 | 58.4 |
Consumer credit | 96.6 | 134.8 | 174.0 | 207.3 | 56.5 | 164.8 | 149.0 | 126.6 | 116.6 | 147.0 | 141.0 | 172.8 | 186.7 | 195.5 |
Debt/DPI (percent)3 | 112.8 | 108.4 | 106.1 | 103.3 | 111.9 | 111.5 | 109.8 | 108.7 | 107.7 | 106.8 | 107.2 | 106.5 | 105.7 | 105.0 |
Business | ||||||||||||||
Financing gap4 | -171.2 | -79.7 | 157.8 | 286.6 | -209.4 | -140.0 | -72.5 | -93.6 | -107.1 | -45.5 | 108.1 | 136.7 | 171.9 | 214.6 |
Net equity issuance | -472.7 | -387.2 | -340.0 | -360.0 | -617.5 | -438.2 | -344.9 | -463.9 | -380.0 | -360.0 | -340.0 | -340.0 | -340.0 | -340.0 |
Credit market borrowing | 509.0 | 621.3 | 531.7 | 577.5 | 439.0 | 564.3 | 629.9 | 677.7 | 610.8 | 566.7 | 534.3 | 521.1 | 527.2 | 544.1 |
State and local governments | ||||||||||||||
Net borrowing | -58.6 | -3.7 | 17.8 | 25.8 | 1.0 | -29.1 | -53.5 | 31.0 | -2.2 | 9.8 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 17.8 |
Current surplus5 | 182.9 | 138.3 | 163.8 | 209.9 | 168.8 | 174.4 | 160.1 | 126.8 | 131.0 | 135.1 | 141.7 | 162.8 | 170.3 | 180.3 |
Federal government | ||||||||||||||
Net borrowing | 1067.9 | 1182.1 | 833.0 | 724.9 | 1382.6 | 1321.2 | 1300.0 | 1248.4 | 976.3 | 1209.9 | 952.1 | 871.9 | 482.2 | 1025.7 |
Net borrowing (n.s.a.) | 1067.9 | 1182.1 | 833.0 | 724.9 | 389.1 | 326.0 | 398.3 | 198.2 | 287.5 | 298.2 | 312.9 | 104.1 | 164.0 | 252.1 |
Unified deficit (n.s.a.) | 1249.6 | 1115.4 | 738.3 | 644.9 | 326.3 | 321.7 | 457.3 | 125.3 | 202.1 | 330.8 | 328.1 | 34.2 | 144.0 | 232.1 |
Depository institutions | ||||||||||||||
Funds supplied | 195.0 | 390.8 | 499.9 | 613.9 | 499.1 | 575.1 | 286.2 | 351.6 | 463.5 | 462.0 | 481.1 | 478.7 | 501.6 | 538.3 |
Note: Data after 2012:Q1 are staff projections.
1. Average debt levels in the period (computed as the average of period-end debt positions) divided by nominal GDP. Return to table
2. Includes change in liabilities not shown in home mortgages and consumer credit. Return to table
3. Average debt levels in the period (computed as the average of period-end debt positions) divided by disposable personal income. Return to table
4. For corporations, excess of capital expenditures over U.S. internal funds. Return to table
5. NIPA state and local government saving plus consumption of fixed capital and net capital transfers. Return to table
n.s.a. Not seasonally adjusted. Return to table
Foreign Real GDP and Consumer Prices: Selected Countries
(Quarterly percent changes at an annual rate)
Measure and country | 2011 | Projected | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012 | 2013 | |||||||||||
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |
Real GDP1 | ||||||||||||
Total foreign | 3.5 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.1 |
Previous Tealbook | 3.6 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
Advanced foreign economies | 1.7 | -.2 | 3.2 | .4 | 1.6 | .7 | .7 | .6 | .8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
Canada | 3.6 | -1.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
Japan | -7.7 | -1.9 | 7.4 | .3 | 5.5 | 1.4 | -.5 | .5 | .9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
United Kingdom | 1.9 | -.4 | 2.4 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -1.8 | 2.5 | .1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
Euro area | 2.9 | .7 | .4 | -1.3 | .1 | -.7 | -1.1 | -1.2 | -.7 | -.2 | .2 | .6 |
Germany | 5.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | -.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | -.2 | -.4 | -.1 | .4 | .7 | 1.3 |
Emerging market economies | 5.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
Asia | 7.6 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.7 |
Korea | 5.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
China | 9.1 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
Latin America | 3.3 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
Mexico | 2.1 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
Brazil | 3.3 | 2.3 | -.6 | .5 | .5 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
Consumer prices2 | ||||||||||||
Total foreign | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Previous Tealbook | 4.2 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
Advanced foreign economies | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | .6 | .7 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Canada | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | .1 | -.5 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
Japan | .0 | -.7 | .1 | -.7 | 2.3 | -.9 | -1.0 | .6 | .1 | -.1 | -.1 | -.1 |
United Kingdom | 6.8 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
Euro Area | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Germany | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
Emerging market economies | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
Asia | 5.5 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
Korea | 5.5 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
China | 5.1 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
Latin America | 3.7 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.3 |
Mexico | 3.2 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
Brazil | 7.8 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
1. Foreign GDP aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. exports. Return to table
2. Foreign CPI aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. non-oil imports. Return to table
Foreign Real GDP and Consumer Prices: Selected Countries
(Percent change, Q4 to Q4)
Measure and country | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | Projected | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |||||||
Real GDP1 | |||||||||
Total foreign | 4.2 | 4.3 | -.9 | .9 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
Previous Tealbook | 4.2 | 4.3 | -.9 | .9 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
Advanced foreign economies | 2.6 | 2.6 | -1.9 | -1.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | .9 | 1.2 | 1.9 |
Canada | 1.9 | 2.5 | -.7 | -1.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
Japan | 2.1 | 1.7 | -4.8 | -.6 | 3.4 | -.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | .7 |
United Kingdom | 2.0 | 3.8 | -4.6 | -.9 | 1.5 | .6 | -.1 | 1.6 | 2.3 |
Euro area | 3.8 | 2.3 | -2.2 | -2.3 | 2.2 | .7 | -.7 | .0 | 1.2 |
Germany | 4.9 | 2.4 | -1.9 | -2.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | .6 | .6 | 1.8 |
Emerging market economies | 6.3 | 6.7 | .4 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 |
Asia | 7.8 | 8.8 | .8 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.8 |
Korea | 4.6 | 5.8 | -3.2 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 4.2 |
China | 12.8 | 13.7 | 7.7 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 8.1 |
Latin America | 4.8 | 4.4 | -.2 | -.7 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.7 |
Mexico | 4.1 | 3.5 | -1.1 | -2.1 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.6 |
Brazil | 4.9 | 6.6 | .9 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 4.0 |
Consumer prices2 | |||||||||
Total foreign | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
Previous Tealbook | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
Advanced foreign economies | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | .2 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
Canada | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | .8 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Japan | .3 | .5 | 1.1 | -2.0 | -.3 | -.3 | .2 | -.1 | 1.7 |
United Kingdom | 2.7 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
Euro Area | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | .4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Germany | 1.3 | 3.1 | 1.7 | .3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
Emerging market economies | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
Asia | 2.4 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.1 |
Korea | 2.1 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
China | 2.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | .6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
Latin America | 4.1 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
Mexico | 4.1 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
Brazil | 3.1 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 5.6 |
1. Foreign GDP aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. exports. Return to table
2. Foreign CPI aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. non-oil imports. Return to table
U.S. Current Account
Quarterly Data
2011 | Projected | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012 | 2013 | |||||||||||
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |
Billions of dollars, s.a.a.r. | ||||||||||||
U.S. current account balance | -480.0 | -476.5 | -432.6 | -474.6 | -549.3 | -493.3 | -455.5 | -491.7 | -514.4 | -496.7 | -509.4 | -547.0 |
Previous Tealbook | -480.0 | -476.5 | -432.6 | -474.6 | -549.3 | -523.4 | -505.9 | -527.2 | -557.4 | -554.9 | -575.5 | -613.8 |
Current account as percent of GDP | -3.2 | -3.2 | -2.9 | -3.1 | -3.5 | -3.2 | -2.9 | -3.1 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.1 | -3.3 |
Previous Tealbook | -3.2 | -3.2 | -2.9 | -3.1 | -3.6 | -3.4 | -3.2 | -3.3 | -3.5 | -3.4 | -3.5 | -3.7 |
Net goods & services | -548.9 | -566.2 | -539.3 | -585.1 | -604.0 | -566.3 | -528.0 | -563.9 | -582.3 | -558.3 | -558.1 | -582.9 |
Investment income, net | 217.9 | 232.8 | 241.9 | 247.4 | 197.8 | 220.0 | 214.6 | 216.5 | 210.6 | 200.5 | 190.8 | 180.1 |
Direct, net | 314.9 | 318.2 | 323.4 | 330.2 | 283.9 | 294.3 | 276.4 | 270.5 | 267.2 | 260.7 | 259.9 | 260.9 |
Portfolio, net | -97.1 | -85.4 | -81.4 | -82.8 | -86.0 | -74.3 | -61.8 | -53.9 | -56.6 | -60.2 | -69.0 | -80.7 |
Other income and transfers, net | -148.9 | -143.1 | -135.3 | -136.9 | -143.1 | -147.1 | -142.2 | -144.3 | -142.8 | -138.9 | -142.2 | -144.3 |
Annual Data
2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | Projected | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |||||||
Billions of dollars | |||||||||
U.S. current account balance | -800.6 | -710.3 | -677.1 | -381.9 | -442.0 | -465.9 | -497.4 | -516.9 | -572.1 |
Previous Tealbook | -800.6 | -710.3 | -677.1 | -381.9 | -442.0 | -465.9 | -526.4 | -575.4 | -646.6 |
Current account as percent of GDP | -6.0 | -5.1 | -4.7 | -2.7 | -3.0 | -3.1 | -3.2 | -3.2 | -3.4 |
Previous Tealbook | -6.0 | -5.1 | -4.7 | -2.7 | -3.0 | -3.1 | -3.4 | -3.6 | -3.8 |
Net goods & services | -753.3 | -696.7 | -698.3 | -379.2 | -494.7 | -559.9 | -565.5 | -570.4 | -586.6 |
Investment income, net | 54.7 | 111.1 | 157.8 | 127.6 | 191.0 | 235.0 | 212.2 | 195.5 | 156.5 |
Direct, net | 174.0 | 244.6 | 284.3 | 253.0 | 297.9 | 321.7 | 281.2 | 262.1 | 268.9 |
Portfolio, net | -119.4 | -133.5 | -126.5 | -125.4 | -106.9 | -86.7 | -69.0 | -66.6 | -112.5 |
Other income and transfers, net | -102.0 | -124.7 | -136.6 | -130.3 | -138.2 | -141.1 | -144.2 | -142.0 | -142.0 |
† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text
Last update: January 5, 2018