FRB: Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data

Table 1. Description of PCE Price Inflation Measures and Their Average Inflation Rates

Index type, Price Index, Brief Description	Average inflation: Jan 1980 to Sep 2009	Average inflation: Mar 1991 to Sep 2008	Average inflation: Jan 2000 to Sep 2009
PCE, Chained Fisher price index constructed and published by BEA	3	2.1	2.2
Exclusion indexes, PCE excluding food and energy, Overall PCE price index excluding food and energy items	3.1	2	1.9
Exclusion indexes, Market-based PCE excluding food and energy, Overall PCE price index excluding food and energy items and items for which prices are not directly observed. Data not available over full sample.	---	1.9	1.8
Exclusion indexes, PCE excluding energy, Measure preferred by Clark (2001) for the CPI	3	2	2
Exclusion indexes, PCE excluding gasoline, Overall PCE price index excluding gasoline	3.1	2.1	2
Exclusion indexes, Only services, The services portion of the overall PCE price index	3.9	2.9	2.9
Exclusion indexes, Only sticky prices, Includes on the "sticky" prices components based on Bryan and Meyer (2010)	3.4	2.4	2.3
Trim-based Measures, Weighted Median PCE, Each month the inflation rate is the median of the cross-sectional distribution of price changes.	3.2	2.4	2.4
Trim-based Measures, Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE, Constructed by Dallas Fed. See Dolmas (2005). Trims top 26% and bottom 19% of the cross-sectional distribution of price changes each month. Degree of trimming determined ex-post to best match benchmarks for the 1977-2004 period.	3.1	2.3	2.3
Trim-based Measures, Average Trimmed Mean PCE, New measure: takes the arithmetic average of all possible symmetric trimmed mean indexes.	3.3	2.5	2.5
Trim-based Measures, Trim of most volatile PCE components (TMVC), Each month trims the 25% of items with the most volatile monthly inflation rates over the previous 24 months. Proposed by Pedersen (2009) for CPI.	3.4	2.5	2.5
Surveys, Michigan median near-term inflation expectations, Median expected inflation over the next twelve months from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey.	3.4	2.9	2.9
Surveys, Michigan mean near-term inflation expectations, Mean expected inflation over the next twelve months from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey.	4.2	3.6	3.5
Surveys, Michigan long-term inflation expectations, Median expected inflation over the next five to ten years from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey. Data not available over full sample.	-	3	2.9
Re-weighting current item inflation using non-01 weights, Variance-weighted PCE fixed 5 yr window, More volatile items receive less weight in the index. Each item receives a weight equal to its nominal share divided by one plus the variance of the monthly inflation of the item over the previous five years.	3.2	2.3	2.3
Re-weighting current item inflation using non-01 weights, Variance-weighted discounted, Item receive weight based on the inverse of the variance of the relative price level where older observations are discounted at a 1% rate monthly.	3.7	2.7	2.7
Re-weighting current item inflation using non-01 weights, CONDI, Items receive a weight based on the cost of nominal distortions to aggregate consumer welfare (Eusepi Hobjin and Tambalotti 2011)	3.8	2.6	2.6
Re-weighting current item inflation using non-01 weights, Regression-weighted fixed weights, Weights based on regression of overall inflation in the next 12-months on 12-month inflation of 17-component breakdown of PCE.	3.4	2.5	3
Re-weighting current item inflation using non-01 weights, Regression-weighted discounted, Same as previous except component inflation multiplied by expenditure weight in regression and older observations are downweighted.	2.9	2.3	2.6
Smoothing Over Time, Exponentially Smoothed PCE, Cogley's proposed smoothing of overall inflation using a discount rate such that inflation rates 16-months prior get a weight about 1/2 that of the current month.	3.5	2.3	2.2
Smoothing Over Time, Unobserved Components-Stochastic Volatility (UC-SV), A backward-looking weighted average of past overall PCE inflation using the time-varying geometrically-weighted form of Stock and Watson (2007 2008)	3.2	2.2	2.3
Smoothing Over Time, ARIMA(102), Projection from an arima(102) model using 15-year rolling window	3	2.1	2.1
Smoothing Over Time, ARIMA(201), Projection from an arima(201) model using 15-year rolling window	3	2	2
Smoothing Over Time, Component Smoothed PCE, Each item receives its usual weight in the consumption basket but the inflation rate for each item is smoothed average of the item's past inflation rates. The degree of smoothing differs across items. A variant of the technique proposed by Gillitzer and Simon (2006).	3.4	2.2	2.2

Return to Table 1

Figure 1a. Tracking centered 36-month moving average of overall PCE inflation: January 1980 to September 2009

Sampling interval	Overall PCE	Excluding food & energy	Dallas Fed trimmed mean	Michigan median 12-month expectations
1	2.23	1.34	0.81	0.71
2	1.81	0.99	0.66	0.68
3	1.52	0.82	0.61	0.66
4	1.32	0.75	0.59	0.65
5	1.17	0.7	0.58	0.64
6	1.06	0.68	0.58	0.64
7	0.97	0.68	0.58	0.63
8	0.9	0.68	0.59	0.64
9	0.84	0.68	0.6	0.64
10	0.8	0.69	0.61	0.65
11	0.78	0.71	0.62	0.66
12	0.76	0.72	0.63	0.67
13	0.75	0.74	0.64	0.67
14	0.73	0.76	0.65	0.68
15	0.71	0.77	0.66	0.69
16	0.7	0.79	0.67	0.7
17	0.7	0.81	0.68	0.71
18	0.71	0.83	0.69	0.71
19	0.72	0.85	0.7	0.72
20	0.74	0.87	0.71	0.73
21	0.76	0.89	0.72	0.74
22	0.78	0.91	0.73	0.75
23	0.8	0.93	0.73	0.75
24	0.82	0.95	0.74	0.76

Return to Figure 1

Figure 1b. Tracking centered 36-month moving average of overall PCE inflation: March 1991 to September 2009

Sampling interval	Overall PCE	Excluding food & energy	Dallas Fed trimmed mean	Michigan median 12-month expectations	Michigan median 5 to 10 year expectations	Market-based ex. food & energy
1	2.32	1.19	0.6	0.75	0.47	1.04
2	1.9	0.79	0.51	0.74	0.46	0.76
3	1.6	0.61	0.47	0.73	0.46	0.64
4	1.4	0.53	0.45	0.72	0.46	0.59
5	1.25	0.49	0.44	0.71	0.46	0.55
6	1.13	0.46	0.43	0.71	0.46	0.53
7	1.03	0.45	0.42	0.7	0.46	0.52
8	0.94	0.44	0.41	0.7	0.46	0.51
9	0.86	0.42	0.41	0.7	0.46	0.51
10	0.79	0.42	0.41	0.7	0.46	0.51
11	0.74	0.42	0.41	0.7	0.47	0.51
12	0.7	0.41	0.42	0.7		0.52
13	0.65	0.42	0.42	0.71		0.53
14	0.6	0.42	0.42	0.71		0.54
15	0.56	0.42	0.43	0.71		0.55
16	0.52	0.43	0.43	0.71		0.55
17	0.5	0.43	0.43	0.71		0.56
18	0.48	0.44	0.44	0.71		0.57
19	0.47	0.45	0.44	0.71		0.58
20	0.47	0.45	0.45	0.71		0.59
21	0.47	0.46	0.45	0.72		0.6
22	0.47	0.47	0.45	0.72		0.61
23	0.47	0.47	0.46	0.72		0.62
24	0.47	0.48	0.46	0.72		0.62

Return to Figure 1

Figure 2a. Tracking Baxter-King band-pass filter of overall PCE inflation: January 1980 to September 2009

Sampling interval	Overall PCE	Excluding food & energy	Dallas Fed trimmed mean	Michigan median 12-month expectations
1	2.14	1.34	0.84	0.73
2	1.73	1	0.71	0.71
3	1.45	0.86	0.68	0.71
4	1.25	0.8	0.66	0.71
5	1.11	0.77	0.65	0.7
6	0.99	0.75	0.65	0.71
7	0.9	0.75	0.66	0.71
8	0.83	0.75	0.67	0.71
9	0.77	0.76	0.68	0.72
10	0.72	0.77	0.69	0.73
11	0.69	0.78	0.71	0.74
12	0.67	0.79	0.72	0.75
13	0.66	0.81	0.73	0.77
14	0.67	0.84	0.75	0.78
15	0.68	0.86	0.77	0.8
16	0.69	0.89	0.79	0.81
17	0.71	0.91	0.8	0.82
18	0.73	0.93	0.82	0.83
19	0.75	0.95	0.84	0.84
20	0.77	0.97	0.85	0.85
21	0.79	0.99	0.86	0.86
22	0.82	1.01	0.88	0.87
23	0.84	1.03	0.89	0.88
24	0.87	1.05	0.9	0.88

Return to Figure 2

Figure 2b. Tracking Baxter-King band-pass filter of overall PCE inflation: March 1991 to September 2009

Sampling interval	Overall PCE	Excluding food & energy	Dallas Fed trimmed mean	Michigan median 12-month expectations	Michigan median 5 to 10 year expectations	Market-based ex. food & energy
1	2.27	1.21	0.65	0.81	0.59	1.07
2	1.86	0.84	0.58	0.81	0.58	0.82
3	1.57	0.68	0.55	0.8	0.58	0.72
4	1.36	0.61	0.53	0.8	0.58	0.68
5	1.21	0.58	0.52	0.79	0.58	0.65
6	1.08	0.55	0.51	0.79	0.58	0.63
7	0.97	0.53	0.51	0.79	0.58	0.63
8	0.88	0.52	0.5	0.79	0.58	0.62
9	0.79	0.5	0.5	0.79	0.58	0.62
10	0.72	0.5	0.51	0.79	0.58	0.62
11	0.66	0.5	0.51	0.79	0.58	0.63
12	0.62	0.5	0.51	0.8		0.63
13	0.59	0.5	0.52	0.81		0.64
14	0.57	0.51	0.52	0.81		0.65
15	0.54	0.51	0.53	0.82		0.66
16	0.53	0.52	0.53	0.82		0.66
17	0.53	0.53	0.54	0.82		0.67
18	0.53	0.53	0.54	0.82		0.68
19	0.53	0.54	0.55	0.82		0.68
20	0.54	0.55	0.56	0.82		0.69
21	0.54	0.56	0.56	0.82		0.7
22	0.54	0.57	0.57	0.82		0.71
23	0.55	0.58	0.57	0.82		0.72
24	0.55	0.59	0.58	0.82		0.73

Return to Figure 2

Figure 3a. Predicting inflation in the next twelve months: January 1980 to September 2009

Sampling interval	Overall PCE	Excluding food & energy	Dallas Fed trimmed mean	Michigan median 12-month expectations
1	2.4	1.66	1.23	1.21
2	2.07	1.4	1.16	1.21
3	1.86	1.3	1.15	1.21
4	1.72	1.27	1.15	1.21
5	1.62	1.26	1.15	1.21
6	1.54	1.26	1.16	1.21
7	1.49	1.26	1.17	1.21
8	1.45	1.27	1.18	1.21
9	1.41	1.28	1.19	1.21
10	1.39	1.29	1.2	1.21
11	1.38	1.3	1.21	1.22
12	1.39	1.32	1.22	1.23
13	1.39	1.33	1.23	1.23
14	1.38	1.35	1.24	1.23
15	1.38	1.36	1.25	1.23
16	1.38	1.38	1.26	1.23
17	1.38	1.39	1.27	1.23
18	1.39	1.4	1.28	1.23
19	1.4	1.42	1.29	1.24
20	1.41	1.43	1.3	1.24
21	1.43	1.45	1.3	1.25
22	1.44	1.46	1.3	1.25
23	1.46	1.48	1.31	1.25
24	1.47	1.49	1.3	1.25

Return to Figure 3

Figure 3b. Predicting inflation in the next twelve months: March 1991 to September 2009

Sampling interval	Overall PCE	Excluding food & energy	Dallas Fed trimmed mean	Michigan median 12-month expectations	Michigan median 5 to 10 year expectations	Market-based ex. food & energy
1	2.51	1.46	1.04	1.25	0.93	1.38
2	2.18	1.17	1	1.24	0.92	1.18
3	1.95	1.05	0.98	1.23	0.92	1.11
4	1.78	1.01	0.97	1.21	0.92	1.07
5	1.67	1	0.96	1.2	0.92	1.06
6	1.57	0.98	0.94	1.19	0.91	1.04
7	1.49	0.98	0.93	1.17	0.91	1.03
8	1.43	0.97	0.93	1.16	0.91	1.03
9	1.37	0.96	0.92	1.15	0.91	1.02
10	1.32	0.95	0.92	1.14	0.91	1.02
11	1.29	0.95	0.92	1.13	0.91	1.03
12	1.27	0.95	0.92	1.13		1.03
13	1.24	0.95	0.92	1.12		1.03
14	1.2	0.95	0.92	1.12		1.03
15	1.17	0.94	0.91	1.12		1.02
16	1.14	0.94	0.91	1.11		1.02
17	1.13	0.94	0.91	1.11		1.02
18	1.12	0.94	0.92	1.11		1.03
19	1.11	0.95	0.92	1.11		1.03
20	1.1	0.95	0.93	1.11		1.04
21	1.09	0.96	0.93	1.11		1.05
22	1.08	0.96	0.94	1.1		1.05
23	1.07	0.96	0.94	1.1		1.06
24	1.06	0.97	0.94	1.1		1.06

Return to Figure 3

Figure 4a. Predicting inflation 12-to-24 months ahead: January 1980 to September 2009

Sampling interval	Overall PCE	Excluding food & energy	Dallas Fed trimmed mean	Michigan median 12-month expectations
1	2.66	1.99	1.54	1.43
2	2.32	1.78	1.47	1.42
3	2.11	1.7	1.46	1.42
4	1.98	1.67	1.46	1.42
5	1.91	1.66	1.46	1.42
6	1.87	1.66	1.47	1.42
7	1.84	1.66	1.47	1.43
8	1.83	1.67	1.48	1.43
9	1.83	1.68	1.48	1.44
10	1.83	1.7	1.49	1.44
11	1.84	1.72	1.48	1.44
12	1.85	1.73	1.48	1.44
13	1.84	1.74	1.47	1.44
14	1.84	1.75	1.46	1.44
15	1.84	1.76	1.44	1.44
16	1.85	1.77	1.43	1.45
17	1.86	1.78	1.42	1.45
18	1.86	1.79	1.41	1.45
19	1.87	1.8	1.4	1.45
20	1.88	1.8	1.38	1.45
21	1.88	1.81	1.37	1.45
22	1.89	1.82	1.36	1.46
23	1.9	1.83	1.35	1.46
24	1.91	1.84	1.33	1.46

Return to Figure 4

Figure 4b. Predicting inflation 12-to-24 months ahead: March 1991 to September 2009

Sampling interval	Overall PCE	Excluding food & energy	Dallas Fed trimmed mean	Michigan median 12-month expectations	Michigan median 5 to 10 year expectations	Market-based ex. food & energy
1	2.55	1.51	1.09	1.16	0.94	1.41
2	2.14	1.2	1.02	1.15	0.94	1.19
3	1.85	1.08	1	1.15	0.94	1.12
4	1.68	1.04	0.98	1.15	0.95	1.09
5	1.58	1.03	0.98	1.15	0.95	1.07
6	1.51	1.02	0.99	1.16	0.95	1.07
7	1.46	1.03	0.99	1.16	0.95	1.07
8	1.41	1.03	1	1.16	0.96	1.08
9	1.38	1.04	1	1.16	0.96	1.09
10	1.35	1.04	1.01	1.15	0.96	1.1
11	1.32	1.04	1	1.15	0.96	1.11
12	1.29	1.04	1	1.14		1.12
13	1.24	1.04	1	1.14		1.12
14	1.2	1.04	1	1.14		1.13
15	1.18	1.05	1	1.14		1.14
16	1.17	1.05	1	1.14		1.15
17	1.16	1.05	1	1.13		1.16
18	1.15	1.05	1	1.13		1.16
19	1.14	1.05	1	1.13		1.17
20	1.13	1.05	1	1.13		1.17
21	1.13	1.05	0.99	1.13		1.17
22	1.12	1.05	0.99	1.13		1.18
23	1.12	1.05	0.99	1.12		1.18
24	1.11	1.05	0.99	1.12		1.19

Return to Figure 4

Figure 5a. Predicting inflation in next 12 months using Phillips curve: January 1985 to September 2009

Sampling interval	Overall PCE	Excluding food & energy	Dallas Fed trimmed mean	Michigan median 12-month expectations
1	1.19	1.2	1.12	1
2	1.17	1.15	1.03	0.97
3	1.12	1.08	0.96	0.96
4	1.05	1	0.91	0.93
5	0.99	0.94	0.87	0.9
6	0.93	0.89	0.85	0.88
7	0.88	0.86	0.83	0.86
8	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.85
9	0.79	0.81	0.79	0.84
10	0.75	0.79	0.76	0.83
11	0.72	0.75	0.73	0.81
12	0.69	0.71	0.69	0.78
13	0.67	0.67	0.65	0.75
14	0.65	0.65	0.62	0.74
15	0.62	0.63	0.6	0.73
16	0.6	0.62	0.59	0.73
17	0.59	0.62	0.58	0.72
18	0.59	0.61	0.58	0.72
19	0.59	0.59	0.58	0.72
20	0.58	0.58	0.58	0.72
21	0.58	0.56	0.58	0.73
22	0.58	0.54	0.57	0.73
23	0.58	0.53	0.56	0.72
24	0.57	0.52	0.55	0.72

Return to Figure 5

Figure 5b. Predicting inflation in next 12 months using Phillips curve: March 1991 to September 2009

Sampling interval	Overall PCE	Excluding food & energy	Dallas Fed trimmed mean	Michigan median 12-month expectations
1	0.98	0.96	0.9	0.91
2	0.97	0.91	0.83	0.89
3	0.94	0.85	0.78	0.89
4	0.92	0.81	0.76	0.87
5	0.9	0.77	0.73	0.85
6	0.85	0.74	0.7	0.83
7	0.81	0.72	0.68	0.81
8	0.77	0.7	0.66	0.79
9	0.73	0.68	0.64	0.78
10	0.69	0.67	0.62	0.77
11	0.65	0.65	0.61	0.76
12	0.64	0.62	0.6	0.75
13	0.64	0.6	0.58	0.74
14	0.63	0.58	0.55	0.74
15	0.6	0.57	0.54	0.73
16	0.57	0.55	0.53	0.73
17	0.56	0.55	0.53	0.72
18	0.56	0.54	0.53	0.72
19	0.56	0.53	0.54	0.72
20	0.55	0.52	0.54	0.73
21	0.54	0.52	0.54	0.73
22	0.54	0.51	0.53	0.73
23	0.54	0.5	0.53	0.73
24	0.55	0.5	0.52	0.73

Return to Figure 5

Figure 6. Average performance of exclusion methods

Sampling interval	Overall PCE	Excluding food & energy	Excluding energy	Excluding gasoline	Only services	Only sticky prices
1	2.12	1.34	1.3	1.35	1.57	1.32
2	1.84	1.07	1.04	1.1	1.24	1.06
3	1.64	0.95	0.92	0.98	1.11	0.94
4	1.49	0.88	0.86	0.9	1.03	0.88
5	1.38	0.86	0.83	0.87	0.98	0.86
6	1.28	0.83	0.81	0.84	0.94	0.83
7	1.2	0.82	0.8	0.83	0.92	0.83
8	1.14	0.81	0.79	0.81	0.9	0.82
9	1.08	0.8	0.79	0.8	0.88	0.81
10	1.03	0.8	0.78	0.79	0.87	0.81
11	0.99	0.8	0.78	0.79	0.85	0.81
12	0.96	0.79	0.78	0.78	0.84	0.8
13	0.93	0.79	0.78	0.78	0.82	0.8
14	0.9	0.8	0.78	0.78	0.81	0.8
15	0.87	0.8	0.78	0.77	0.79	0.8
16	0.84	0.8	0.79	0.77	0.78	0.8
17	0.83	0.81	0.79	0.78	0.78	0.81
18	0.83	0.81	0.8	0.79	0.79	0.81
19	0.83	0.82	0.8	0.79	0.79	0.81
20	0.82	0.82	0.81	0.8	0.79	0.81
21	0.83	0.83	0.81	0.8	0.79	0.81
22	0.83	0.83	0.82	0.81	0.79	0.81
23	0.83	0.83	0.82	0.81	0.8	0.81
24	0.83	0.84	0.82	0.82	0.81	0.81

Return to Figure 6

Figure 7. Average performance of trim methods and inflation expectations

Sampling interval	Dallas Fed trimmed mean	Weighted median	Average trimmed mean	TMVC	Michigan mean 12-month ahead	Michigan median 12-month ahead
1	0.93	1.10	0.97	1.00	1.06	0.97
2	0.85	0.93	0.89	0.90	1.03	0.95
3	0.82	0.87	0.85	0.85	1.02	0.95
4	0.80	0.84	0.83	0.83	1.01	0.94
5	0.79	0.82	0.81	0.82	1.00	0.93
6	0.78	0.80	0.80	0.81	0.99	0.92
7	0.78	0.79	0.79	0.81	0.98	0.92
8	0.77	0.79	0.79	0.80	0.98	0.91
9	0.77	0.79	0.79	0.80	0.98	0.91
10	0.77	0.79	0.78	0.80	0.98	0.91
11	0.77	0.79	0.78	0.80	0.98	0.91
12	0.77	0.79	0.79	0.80	0.98	0.91
13	0.77	0.79	0.78	0.80	0.98	0.91
14	0.77	0.79	0.78	0.80	0.99	0.91
15	0.77	0.79	0.78	0.79	0.99	0.92
16	0.77	0.79	0.78	0.79	0.99	0.92
17	0.77	0.79	0.78	0.80	1.00	0.92
18	0.78	0.79	0.79	0.80	1.00	0.92
19	0.78	0.80	0.80	0.81	1.00	0.92
20	0.79	0.81	0.80	0.82	1.00	0.92
21	0.79	0.80	0.81	0.82	1.01	0.92
22	0.79	0.80	0.81	0.83	1.01	0.92
23	0.79	0.80	0.82	0.83	1.02	0.92
24	0.79	0.80	0.82	0.83	1.02	0.92

Return to Figure 7

Figure 8. Average performance of variance and regression-weighted methods

Sampling interval	Variance of price change fixed 60-month window	Variance of inflation change 1% monthly discount	CONDI	Regression 17-items inflation rates fixed weights	Regression 17-items contributions 5% monthly discount
1	1	1.08	1.36	1.28	1.24
2	0.89	0.98	1.09	1.27	1.23
3	0.84	0.93	0.97	1.27	1.22
4	0.81	0.89	0.91	1.27	1.22
5	0.8	0.87	0.87	1.26	1.21
6	0.78	0.85	0.84	1.26	1.2
7	0.78	0.84	0.84	1.26	1.18
8	0.77	0.83	0.83	1.26	1.16
9	0.77	0.83	0.83	1.26	1.15
10	0.77	0.82	0.83	1.25	1.13
11	0.77	0.82	0.83	1.24	1.12
12	0.77	0.82	0.82	1.24	1.1
13	0.77	0.82	0.82	1.23	1.09
14	0.77	0.82	0.82	1.22	1.08
15	0.77	0.81	0.82	1.21	1.07
16	0.78	0.8	0.83	1.2	1.06
17	0.78	0.81	0.83	1.2	1.05
18	0.79	0.82	0.84	1.19	1.04
19	0.8	0.82	0.84	1.19	1.04
20	0.81	0.83	0.84	1.18	1.03
21	0.82	0.83	0.84	1.17	1.02
22	0.82	0.83	0.85	1.16	1.01
23	0.83	0.84	0.85	1.15	1.01
24	0.83	0.84	0.86	1.14	1

Return to Figure 8

Figure 9. Average performance of smoothing methods

Sampling interval	Exponentially smoothed	Component smoothed	UC-SV	ARIMA(102)	ARIMA(201)
1	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.83	1.14
2	0.87	0.84	0.83	0.82	1.03
3	0.88	0.84	0.82	0.81	0.97
4	0.89	0.84	0.81	0.79	0.92
5	0.90	0.84	0.80	0.78	0.88
6	0.91	0.85	0.80	0.77	0.85
7	0.91	0.85	0.81	0.77	0.82
8	0.92	0.86	0.81	0.77	0.80
9	0.93	0.86	0.81	0.77	0.78
10	0.94	0.87	0.82	0.78	0.76
11	0.95	0.87	0.83	0.78	0.75
12	0.95	0.88	0.83	0.79	0.75
13	0.96	0.88	0.84	0.79	0.75
14	0.97	0.88	0.84	0.80	0.75
15	0.97	0.89	0.85	0.81	0.75
16	0.98	0.89	0.86	0.81	0.75
17	0.98	0.90	0.86	0.82	0.76
18	0.99	0.90	0.87	0.83	0.76
19	1.00	0.91	0.88	0.83	0.77
20	1.00	0.91	0.89	0.84	0.78
21	1.01	0.92	0.89	0.85	0.79
22	1.01	0.92	0.90	0.86	0.79
23	1.02	0.92	0.91	0.86	0.80
24	1.02	0.93	0.91	0.87	0.81

Return to Figure 9

Figure 10. Average performance of selected core inflation measures

Sampling interval	Overall PCE	Excluding food & energy	Dallas Fed trimmed mean	Variance of price change fixed 60-month window	ARIMA(102)	Average of Overall PCE XFE Dallas Fed trimmed mean
1	2.12	1.34	0.93	1	0.83	1.11
2	1.84	1.07	0.85	0.89	0.82	0.98
3	1.64	0.95	0.82	0.84	0.81	0.91
4	1.49	0.88	0.8	0.81	0.79	0.86
5	1.38	0.86	0.79	0.8	0.78	0.83
6	1.28	0.83	0.78	0.78	0.77	0.8
7	1.2	0.82	0.78	0.78	0.77	0.78
8	1.14	0.81	0.77	0.77	0.77	0.77
9	1.08	0.8	0.77	0.77	0.77	0.76
10	1.03	0.8	0.77	0.77	0.78	0.75
11	0.99	0.8	0.77	0.77	0.78	0.75
12	0.96	0.79	0.77	0.77	0.79	0.75
13	0.93	0.79	0.77	0.77	0.79	0.75
14	0.9	0.8	0.77	0.77	0.8	0.74
15	0.87	0.8	0.77	0.77	0.81	0.74
16	0.84	0.8	0.77	0.78	0.81	0.74
17	0.83	0.81	0.77	0.78	0.82	0.74
18	0.83	0.81	0.78	0.79	0.83	0.75
19	0.83	0.82	0.78	0.8	0.83	0.75
20	0.82	0.82	0.79	0.81	0.84	0.76
21	0.83	0.83	0.79	0.82	0.85	0.77
22	0.83	0.83	0.79	0.82	0.86	0.77
23	0.83	0.83	0.79	0.83	0.86	0.77
24	0.83	0.84	0.79	0.83	0.87	0.77

Return to Figure 10

Figure 11. Average performance of selected core inflation measures at 3-month sampling interval: Geometric average error over 5 benchmarks using rolling 10-year windows

Ending date of 10-year rolling window	Overall PCE	Excluding food and energy	Average trimmed mean	ARIMA(102)	Variance of price change fixed 60-month window	Average of overall PCE XFE and average trimmed mean
Apr-80	2.05	2.01
May-80	2.06	2.02	1.68			1.72
Jun-80	2.06	2.02	1.68			1.72
Jul-80	2.07	2.03	1.69			1.73
Aug-80	2.07	2.03	1.69			1.73
Sep-80	2.08	2.04	1.7			1.74
Oct-80	2.09	2.06	1.71			1.75
Nov-80	2.1	2.07	1.72			1.76
Dec-80	2.1	2.08	1.72			1.76
Jan-81	2.11	2.08	1.73			1.77
Feb-81	2.13	2.09	1.75			1.79
Mar-81	2.16	2.1	1.77			1.81
Apr-81	2.17	2.11	1.78			1.82
May-81	2.18	2.12	1.79			1.83
Jun-81	2.18	2.12	1.79			1.83
Jul-81	2.18	2.12	1.79			1.83
Aug-81	2.18	2.13	1.79			1.83
Sep-81	2.18	2.13	1.8			1.84
Oct-81	2.18	2.14	1.81			1.85
Nov-81	2.18	2.14	1.82			1.85
Dec-81	2.18	2.14	1.82			1.84
Jan-82	2.17	2.14	1.81			1.84
Feb-82	2.17	2.14	1.81			1.84
Mar-82	2.16	2.14	1.81			1.84
Apr-82	2.17	2.13	1.81			1.83
May-82	2.16	2.12	1.8			1.82
Jun-82	2.15	2.12	1.79			1.81
Jul-82	2.15	2.12	1.79			1.81
Aug-82	2.14	2.11	1.78			1.81
Sep-82	2.12	2.1	1.77			1.8
Oct-82	2.12	2.09	1.76			1.79
Nov-82	2.1	2.07	1.75			1.77
Dec-82	2.08	2.05	1.73			1.76
Jan-83	2.06	2.03	1.72			1.73
Feb-83	2.05	2	1.7			1.71
Mar-83	2.04	1.97	1.68			1.69
Apr-83	2.04	1.94	1.66			1.68
May-83	2.04	1.94	1.66			1.67
Jun-83	2.03	1.93	1.65			1.67
Jul-83	2.03	1.93	1.65			1.67
Aug-83	2.03	1.94	1.62			1.64
Sep-83	2.03	1.94	1.6			1.63
Oct-83	2.03	1.93	1.57			1.61
Nov-83	2.03	1.91	1.55			1.59
Dec-83	2.03	1.9	1.53			1.58
Jan-84	2.03	1.88	1.52			1.56
Feb-84	2.02	1.87	1.51			1.56
Mar-84	2	1.87	1.51			1.56
Apr-84	1.95	1.87	1.51			1.56
May-84	1.91	1.87	1.5			1.55
Jun-84	1.88	1.85	1.48			1.52
Jul-84	1.87	1.82	1.46			1.5
Aug-84	1.85	1.78	1.44			1.48
Sep-84	1.83	1.74	1.42			1.46
Oct-84	1.79	1.71	1.39			1.42
Nov-84	1.75	1.67	1.36			1.39
Dec-84	1.73	1.65	1.34			1.37
Jan-85	1.71	1.64	1.33			1.36
Feb-85	1.7	1.65	1.33			1.35
Mar-85	1.7	1.65	1.33			1.36
Apr-85	1.69	1.64	1.33		1.32	1.35
May-85	1.67	1.63	1.32		1.31	1.34
Jun-85	1.65	1.62	1.31		1.3	1.33
Jul-85	1.64	1.62	1.3		1.29	1.32
Aug-85	1.64	1.62	1.3		1.28	1.32
Sep-85	1.63	1.62	1.31		1.29	1.32
Oct-85	1.63	1.63	1.31		1.29	1.33
Nov-85	1.64	1.63	1.32		1.3	1.33
Dec-85	1.64	1.63	1.32		1.3	1.34
Jan-86	1.64	1.63	1.33		1.3	1.34
Feb-86	1.64	1.63	1.33		1.29	1.34
Mar-86	1.65	1.64	1.33		1.3	1.34
Apr-86	1.67	1.64	1.33		1.3	1.34
May-86	1.67	1.64	1.32		1.29	1.33
Jun-86	1.66	1.64	1.32		1.29	1.33
Jul-86	1.65	1.64	1.32		1.29	1.33
Aug-86	1.66	1.64	1.32		1.29	1.33
Sep-86	1.66	1.64	1.32		1.29	1.33
Oct-86	1.66	1.64	1.33		1.29	1.33
Nov-86	1.66	1.64	1.32		1.28	1.33
Dec-86	1.66	1.64	1.32		1.29	1.33
Jan-87	1.66	1.64	1.32		1.29	1.33
Feb-87	1.67	1.64	1.33		1.29	1.33
Mar-87	1.66	1.64	1.32		1.28	1.33
Apr-87	1.66	1.64	1.32		1.27	1.32
May-87	1.66	1.64	1.31		1.27	1.32
Jun-87	1.66	1.64	1.31		1.27	1.32
Jul-87	1.66	1.64	1.31		1.27	1.32
Aug-87	1.66	1.64	1.31		1.27	1.32
Sep-87	1.66	1.64	1.31		1.27	1.32
Oct-87	1.65	1.64	1.31		1.27	1.32
Nov-87	1.65	1.63	1.31		1.27	1.31
Dec-87	1.65	1.63	1.31		1.27	1.31
Jan-88	1.65	1.63	1.31		1.27	1.31
Feb-88	1.65	1.63	1.3		1.27	1.31
Mar-88	1.65	1.63	1.3		1.26	1.31
Apr-88	1.64	1.62	1.3		1.25	1.3
May-88	1.64	1.62	1.29		1.25	1.3
Jun-88	1.64	1.62	1.29		1.25	1.3
Jul-88	1.64	1.62	1.29		1.25	1.3
Aug-88	1.64	1.62	1.29		1.25	1.3
Sep-88	1.64	1.62	1.29		1.24	1.3
Oct-88	1.64	1.62	1.29		1.24	1.3
Nov-88	1.64	1.62	1.3		1.24	1.3
Dec-88	1.64	1.63	1.3		1.24	1.31
Jan-89	1.64	1.62	1.3		1.24	1.3
Feb-89	1.63	1.6	1.3		1.23	1.3
Mar-89	1.62	1.57	1.3		1.23	1.29
Apr-89	1.62	1.54	1.29		1.22	1.29
May-89	1.62	1.54	1.29		1.22	1.28
Jun-89	1.61	1.54	1.29		1.22	1.28
Jul-89	1.6	1.55	1.29		1.23	1.29
Aug-89	1.61	1.56	1.3		1.24	1.3
Sep-89	1.63	1.56	1.3		1.24	1.3
Oct-89	1.64	1.56	1.3		1.25	1.31
Nov-89	1.65	1.56	1.3		1.25	1.31
Dec-89	1.65	1.56	1.3		1.25	1.31
Jan-90	1.65	1.56	1.3		1.25	1.31
Feb-90	1.65	1.56	1.3		1.24	1.31
Mar-90	1.64	1.56	1.29		1.23	1.3
Apr-90	1.6	1.54	1.27		1.2	1.27
May-90	1.58	1.54	1.26		1.19	1.26
Jun-90	1.57	1.53	1.25		1.18	1.26
Jul-90	1.56	1.52	1.25		1.18	1.25
Aug-90	1.56	1.52	1.24		1.17	1.25
Sep-90	1.56	1.51	1.24		1.17	1.24
Oct-90	1.58	1.5	1.23		1.16	1.23
Nov-90	1.56	1.47	1.21		1.14	1.21
Dec-90	1.54	1.45	1.19		1.13	1.19
Jan-91	1.53	1.43	1.17		1.12	1.18
Feb-91	1.52	1.41	1.15		1.11	1.15
Mar-91	1.48	1.39	1.11		1.07	1.12
Apr-91	1.45	1.37	1.08		1.03	1.08
May-91	1.43	1.36	1.05		1.01	1.06
Jun-91	1.43	1.34	1.04		0.99	1.05
Jul-91	1.42	1.33	1.03		0.98	1.04
Aug-91	1.42	1.32	1.02		0.97	1.03
Sep-91	1.41	1.31	1.01		0.95	1.02
Oct-91	1.41	1.29	0.98		0.91	0.99
Nov-91	1.4	1.27	0.95		0.88	0.97
Dec-91	1.4	1.25	0.93		0.86	0.95
Jan-92	1.39	1.24	0.92		0.85	0.94
Feb-92	1.39	1.23	0.91		0.85	0.94
Mar-92	1.39	1.23	0.91		0.84	0.93
Apr-92	1.39	1.23	0.9		0.84	0.93
May-92	1.38	1.22	0.9		0.84	0.93
Jun-92	1.37	1.22	0.9		0.84	0.93
Jul-92	1.37	1.21	0.89		0.84	0.92
Aug-92	1.34	1.19	0.86		0.81	0.89
Sep-92	1.33	1.17	0.84		0.8	0.87
Oct-92	1.33	1.15	0.83		0.8	0.86
Nov-92	1.33	1.14	0.83		0.8	0.86
Dec-92	1.33	1.13	0.83		0.79	0.85
Jan-93	1.33	1.12	0.83		0.79	0.85
Feb-93	1.33	1.11	0.83		0.79	0.85
Mar-93	1.33	1.1	0.83		0.79	0.85
Apr-93	1.33	1.09	0.83		0.79	0.85
May-93	1.33	1.09	0.83		0.79	0.85
Jun-93	1.33	1.08	0.83		0.79	0.85
Jul-93	1.33	1.08	0.83		0.79	0.85
Aug-93	1.33	1.08	0.83		0.79	0.86
Sep-93	1.32	1.05	0.83		0.8	0.85
Oct-93	1.32	1.02	0.83		0.79	0.85
Nov-93	1.32	1.01	0.83		0.79	0.85
Dec-93	1.31	1.01	0.83		0.79	0.85
Jan-94	1.29	1	0.82		0.79	0.84
Feb-94	1.29	1	0.82		0.79	0.84
Mar-94	1.28	0.99	0.82		0.78	0.84
Apr-94	1.27	0.98	0.8		0.78	0.82
May-94	1.26	0.95	0.79		0.78	0.81
Jun-94	1.26	0.95	0.79		0.78	0.81
Jul-94	1.26	0.95	0.79		0.78	0.81
Aug-94	1.27	0.95	0.79		0.78	0.81
Sep-94	1.27	0.94	0.78		0.78	0.8
Oct-94	1.27	0.94	0.77		0.77	0.8
Nov-94	1.27	0.94	0.77		0.77	0.8
Dec-94	1.26	0.94	0.77		0.77	0.79
Jan-95	1.26	0.94	0.76		0.77	0.79
Feb-95	1.26	0.93	0.76		0.77	0.79
Mar-95	1.25	0.91	0.75	0.82	0.75	0.78
Apr-95	1.24	0.88	0.73	0.81	0.73	0.75
May-95	1.23	0.87	0.71	0.8	0.72	0.74
Jun-95	1.22	0.87	0.7	0.79	0.71	0.73
Jul-95	1.22	0.87	0.69	0.78	0.71	0.73
Aug-95	1.21	0.86	0.68	0.78	0.7	0.72
Sep-95	1.2	0.85	0.67	0.77	0.69	0.71
Oct-95	1.2	0.85	0.67	0.77	0.69	0.71
Nov-95	1.2	0.84	0.66	0.76	0.68	0.7
Dec-95	1.19	0.84	0.64	0.76	0.66	0.69
Jan-96	1.18	0.84	0.63	0.75	0.65	0.68
Feb-96	1.18	0.83	0.61	0.75	0.64	0.66
Mar-96	1.18	0.82	0.6	0.74	0.64	0.66
Apr-96	1.17	0.81	0.6	0.74	0.63	0.65
May-96	1.1	0.81	0.6	0.72	0.62	0.65
Jun-96	1.05	0.81	0.6	0.69	0.62	0.64
Jul-96	1.04	0.8	0.6	0.67	0.62	0.64
Aug-96	1.04	0.8	0.6	0.66	0.61	0.64
Sep-96	1.04	0.8	0.6	0.65	0.61	0.64
Oct-96	1.04	0.8	0.6	0.64	0.62	0.64
Nov-96	1.04	0.8	0.61	0.63	0.62	0.65
Dec-96	1.04	0.8	0.61	0.63	0.63	0.65
Jan-97	1.04	0.8	0.61	0.62	0.62	0.65
Feb-97	1.04	0.8	0.61	0.62	0.62	0.65
Mar-97	1.03	0.8	0.61	0.62	0.62	0.65
Apr-97	1.02	0.8	0.61	0.62	0.62	0.64
May-97	1.02	0.8	0.6	0.62	0.62	0.64
Jun-97	1.02	0.8	0.6	0.62	0.61	0.64
Jul-97	1.03	0.8	0.6	0.62	0.61	0.64
Aug-97	1.03	0.8	0.6	0.62	0.61	0.64
Sep-97	1.03	0.8	0.6	0.62	0.61	0.64
Oct-97	1.03	0.8	0.6	0.62	0.61	0.64
Nov-97	1.03	0.8	0.6	0.62	0.61	0.64
Dec-97	1.03	0.8	0.6	0.62	0.61	0.64
Jan-98	1.03	0.8	0.6	0.62	0.61	0.64
Feb-98	1.03	0.8	0.6	0.61	0.6	0.63
Mar-98	1.04	0.8	0.6	0.61	0.6	0.63
Apr-98	1.04	0.8	0.6	0.61	0.6	0.63
May-98	1.04	0.8	0.6	0.61	0.6	0.64
Jun-98	1.05	0.81	0.61	0.61	0.6	0.64
Jul-98	1.05	0.81	0.61	0.61	0.61	0.64
Aug-98	1.05	0.81	0.61	0.61	0.61	0.64
Sep-98	1.05	0.81	0.61	0.61	0.61	0.64
Oct-98	1.04	0.81	0.6	0.61	0.6	0.64
Nov-98	1.04	0.8	0.6	0.61	0.6	0.63
Dec-98	1.04	0.8	0.59	0.61	0.6	0.63
Jan-99	1.03	0.79	0.59	0.61	0.59	0.62
Feb-99	1.03	0.79	0.59	0.61	0.6	0.62
Mar-99	1.03	0.8	0.59	0.62	0.6	0.63
Apr-99	1.03	0.8	0.6	0.63	0.61	0.63
May-99	1.03	0.8	0.6	0.63	0.6	0.63
Jun-99	1.03	0.79	0.6	0.63	0.6	0.63
Jul-99	1.03	0.79	0.59	0.64	0.6	0.63
Aug-99	1.02	0.78	0.59	0.64	0.6	0.62
Sep-99	1	0.75	0.58	0.64	0.58	0.61
Oct-99	0.97	0.73	0.57	0.63	0.57	0.59
Nov-99	0.95	0.72	0.56	0.62	0.55	0.58
Dec-99	0.94	0.72	0.56	0.61	0.55	0.57
Jan-00	0.94	0.71	0.56	0.6	0.55	0.57
Feb-00	0.94	0.71	0.56	0.6	0.55	0.57
Mar-00	0.95	0.71	0.56	0.6	0.55	0.58
Apr-00	0.93	0.7	0.56	0.6	0.55	0.57
May-00	0.93	0.7	0.56	0.6	0.54	0.57
Jun-00	0.93	0.7	0.56	0.6	0.54	0.57
Jul-00	0.93	0.71	0.56	0.6	0.54	0.57
Aug-00	0.93	0.71	0.56	0.6	0.54	0.57
Sep-00	0.92	0.71	0.56	0.59	0.54	0.57
Oct-00	0.9	0.71	0.56	0.59	0.54	0.57
Nov-00	0.85	0.71	0.56	0.57	0.54	0.56
Dec-00	0.83	0.71	0.56	0.55	0.54	0.56
1-Jan	0.84	0.7	0.57	0.54	0.55	0.57
1-Feb	0.85	0.7	0.58	0.54	0.56	0.58
1-Mar	0.85	0.7	0.58	0.54	0.57	0.58
1-Apr	0.84	0.7	0.58	0.54	0.56	0.58
1-May	0.82	0.7	0.57	0.54	0.56	0.57
1-Jun	0.82	0.7	0.58	0.54	0.56	0.57
1-Jul	0.82	0.69	0.58	0.54	0.57	0.57
1-Aug	0.82	0.69	0.58	0.54	0.57	0.57
1-Sep	0.88	0.75	0.58	0.54	0.56	0.57
1-Oct	0.89	0.75	0.57	0.54	0.56	0.58
1-Nov	0.91	0.74	0.57	0.54	0.56	0.58
1-Dec	0.91	0.77	0.57	0.54	0.56	0.57
2-Jan	0.93	0.77	0.57	0.54	0.57	0.58
2-Feb	0.93	0.77	0.57	0.55	0.57	0.57
2-Mar	0.93	0.76	0.57	0.55	0.57	0.57
2-Apr	0.94	0.76	0.57	0.55	0.57	0.58
2-May	0.95	0.76	0.57	0.55	0.56	0.58
2-Jun	0.95	0.76	0.57	0.54	0.56	0.58
2-Jul	0.95	0.76	0.57	0.54	0.56	0.58
2-Aug	0.95	0.76	0.57	0.54	0.56	0.58
2-Sep	0.95	0.76	0.57	0.54	0.56	0.58
2-Oct	0.95	0.76	0.57	0.54	0.56	0.58
2-Nov	0.95	0.76	0.57	0.54	0.57	0.58
2-Dec	0.95	0.76	0.57	0.54	0.57	0.58
3-Jan	0.95	0.77	0.58	0.53	0.57	0.59
3-Feb	0.95	0.78	0.58	0.53	0.58	0.59
3-Mar	0.95	0.78	0.58	0.53	0.58	0.59
3-Apr	0.95	0.78	0.58	0.53	0.58	0.59
3-May	0.97	0.78	0.59	0.53	0.58	0.6
3-Jun	1.01	0.78	0.61	0.53	0.59	0.62
3-Jul	1.01	0.78	0.61	0.54	0.6	0.62
3-Aug	1.01	0.78	0.61	0.54	0.6	0.62
3-Sep	1.01	0.78	0.61	0.54	0.6	0.62
3-Oct	1	0.78	0.61	0.54	0.6	0.62
3-Nov	1	0.78	0.61	0.55	0.6	0.62
3-Dec	1.01	0.78	0.62	0.55	0.6	0.62
4-Jan	1	0.78	0.62	0.55	0.61	0.63
4-Feb	1	0.78	0.62	0.55	0.6	0.62
4-Mar	1	0.77	0.62	0.55	0.6	0.62
4-Apr	1	0.77	0.62	0.55	0.6	0.62
4-May	0.99	0.77	0.62	0.55	0.6	0.62
4-Jun	0.99	0.77	0.62	0.55	0.6	0.62
4-Jul	0.99	0.77	0.62	0.55	0.6	0.62
4-Aug	0.99	0.77	0.62	0.55	0.6	0.62
4-Sep	0.99	0.77	0.63	0.55	0.62	0.63
4-Oct	0.99	0.78	0.64	0.56	0.63	0.64
4-Nov	0.99	0.78	0.64	0.56	0.64	0.64
4-Dec	0.99	0.78	0.65	0.56	0.64	0.64
5-Jan	0.99	0.78	0.65	0.56	0.64	0.65
5-Feb	0.99	0.78	0.65	0.56	0.64	0.65
5-Mar	0.99	0.78	0.65	0.56	0.64	0.65
5-Apr	0.99	0.78	0.65	0.56	0.64	0.65
5-May	0.99	0.78	0.66	0.56	0.64	0.65
5-Jun	1	0.79	0.66	0.56	0.65	0.66
5-Jul	1	0.79	0.67	0.56	0.66	0.66
5-Aug	1	0.8	0.67	0.56	0.66	0.66
5-Sep	1.08	0.8	0.67	0.57	0.66	0.67
5-Oct	1.13	0.8	0.67	0.57	0.66	0.67
5-Nov	1.13	0.8	0.67	0.57	0.67	0.67
5-Dec	1.15	0.8	0.68	0.57	0.67	0.68
6-Jan	1.16	0.8	0.68	0.57	0.67	0.68
6-Feb	1.16	0.8	0.68	0.57	0.67	0.69
6-Mar	1.16	0.79	0.68	0.58	0.67	0.69
6-Apr	1.15	0.79	0.68	0.58	0.67	0.68
6-May	1.15	0.79	0.68	0.57	0.66	0.68
6-Jun	1.15	0.79	0.68	0.58	0.66	0.68
6-Jul	1.14	0.79	0.68	0.58	0.66	0.68
6-Aug	1.14	0.79	0.68	0.58	0.66	0.68
6-Sep	1.15	0.79	0.68	0.58	0.67	0.68
6-Oct	1.16	0.79	0.67	0.58	0.67	0.68
6-Nov	1.19	0.79	0.68	0.59	0.67	0.69
6-Dec	1.2	0.79	0.68	0.59	0.67	0.69
7-Jan	1.2	0.8	0.68	0.6	0.68	0.69
7-Feb	1.21	0.8	0.69	0.61	0.68	0.7
7-Mar	1.22	0.81	0.7	0.62	0.69	0.71
7-Apr	1.23	0.81	0.7	0.62	0.7	0.71
7-May	1.24	0.82	0.71	0.63	0.71	0.72
7-Jun	1.25	0.83	0.73	0.65	0.73	0.73
7-Jul	1.25	0.84	0.74	0.67	0.74	0.75
7-Aug	1.26	0.85	0.76	0.68	0.75	0.76
7-Sep	1.27	0.86	0.77	0.69	0.77	0.77
7-Oct	1.28	0.87	0.77	0.7	0.77	0.78
7-Nov	1.29	0.87	0.78	0.7	0.78	0.79
7-Dec	1.31	0.88	0.79	0.7	0.79	0.8
8-Jan	1.33	0.88	0.8	0.71	0.79	0.81
8-Feb	1.33	0.89	0.8	0.72	0.8	0.81
8-Mar	1.33	0.89	0.8	0.73	0.8	0.82
8-Apr	1.33	0.89	0.81	0.73	0.81	0.83
8-May	1.34	0.9	0.82	0.75	0.82	0.84
8-Jun	1.37	0.91	0.82	0.76	0.83	0.85
8-Jul	1.41	0.91	0.84	0.78	0.84	0.87
8-Aug	1.42	0.91	0.84	0.79	0.85	0.87
8-Sep	1.42	0.91	0.85	0.81	0.85	0.88
8-Oct	1.44	0.91	0.85	0.81	0.85	0.88
8-Nov	1.54	0.91	0.85	0.82	0.85	0.89
8-Dec	1.7	0.91	0.85	0.82	0.86	0.9
9-Jan	1.78	0.91	0.85	0.82	0.86	0.91
9-Feb	1.78	0.91	0.85	0.82	0.86	0.91
9-Mar	1.78	0.91	0.85	0.82	0.85	0.91
9-Apr	1.77	0.91	0.85	0.81	0.85	0.91
9-May	1.78	0.91	0.85	0.82	0.85	0.91
9-Jun	1.78	0.91	0.85	0.82	0.85	0.91
9-Jul	1.79	0.91	0.85	0.82	0.85	0.91
9-Aug	1.79	0.91	0.85	0.82	0.85	0.91
9-Sep	1.79	0.91	0.86	0.83	0.86	0.92

Return to Figure 11

Figure 12. Average performance of selected core inflation measures at 6-month sampling interval: Geometric average error over 5 benchmarks using rolling 10-year windows

Ending date of rolling 10-year window	Overall PCE	Excluding food and energy	Average trimmed mean	ARIMA(102)	Variance of price change fixed 60-month window	Average of overall PCE XFE and average trimmed mean
Jul-80	1.88	1.95
Aug-80	1.88	1.96	1.67			1.69
Sep-80	1.89	1.96	1.68			1.7
Oct-80	1.89	1.98	1.69			1.71
Nov-80	1.9	1.99	1.69			1.71
Dec-80	1.91	2	1.7			1.72
Jan-81	1.92	2.01	1.71			1.73
Feb-81	1.95	2.03	1.73			1.75
Mar-81	1.97	2.04	1.75			1.77
Apr-81	1.98	2.05	1.76			1.79
May-81	1.99	2.06	1.78			1.8
Jun-81	2	2.07	1.79			1.81
Jul-81	2	2.07	1.8			1.81
Aug-81	2	2.08	1.8			1.82
Sep-81	2	2.08	1.81			1.82
Oct-81	2	2.09	1.81			1.83
Nov-81	2	2.1	1.82			1.83
Dec-81	2	2.1	1.83			1.84
Jan-82	2	2.11	1.83			1.84
Feb-82	1.99	2.11	1.83			1.84
Mar-82	1.99	2.11	1.83			1.84
Apr-82	1.99	2.1	1.83			1.83
May-82	1.98	2.1	1.82			1.83
Jun-82	1.97	2.1	1.82			1.83
Jul-82	1.96	2.09	1.81			1.82
Aug-82	1.95	2.09	1.8			1.81
Sep-82	1.93	2.08	1.79			1.8
Oct-82	1.92	2.07	1.78			1.79
Nov-82	1.91	2.06	1.77			1.78
Dec-82	1.89	2.04	1.76			1.76
Jan-83	1.87	2.03	1.74			1.75
Feb-83	1.85	2	1.72			1.72
Mar-83	1.84	1.97	1.7			1.7
Apr-83	1.83	1.94	1.68			1.68
May-83	1.83	1.92	1.66			1.66
Jun-83	1.82	1.9	1.65			1.65
Jul-83	1.82	1.88	1.64			1.64
Aug-83	1.82	1.87	1.62			1.62
Sep-83	1.82	1.86	1.61			1.61
Oct-83	1.82	1.85	1.59			1.6
Nov-83	1.81	1.83	1.56			1.58
Dec-83	1.8	1.81	1.53			1.55
Jan-84	1.8	1.8	1.51			1.54
Feb-84	1.8	1.78	1.5			1.53
Mar-84	1.79	1.76	1.49			1.52
Apr-84	1.76	1.76	1.49			1.51
May-84	1.73	1.75	1.48			1.51
Jun-84	1.69	1.75	1.48			1.5
Jul-84	1.64	1.74	1.46			1.48
Aug-84	1.61	1.72	1.45			1.47
Sep-84	1.58	1.69	1.43			1.44
Oct-84	1.54	1.65	1.4			1.41
Nov-84	1.51	1.61	1.37			1.37
Dec-84	1.48	1.57	1.34			1.34
Jan-85	1.45	1.55	1.32			1.32
Feb-85	1.42	1.53	1.31			1.3
Mar-85	1.4	1.52	1.3			1.29
Apr-85	1.4	1.51	1.3			1.29
May-85	1.39	1.51	1.3			1.29
Jun-85	1.38	1.51	1.3			1.29
Jul-85	1.37	1.51	1.3		1.28	1.29
Aug-85	1.37	1.51	1.3		1.28	1.29
Sep-85	1.37	1.51	1.3		1.28	1.29
Oct-85	1.37	1.51	1.31		1.29	1.3
Nov-85	1.37	1.52	1.32		1.29	1.3
Dec-85	1.37	1.52	1.32		1.29	1.3
Jan-86	1.37	1.52	1.32		1.3	1.3
Feb-86	1.37	1.52	1.33		1.29	1.31
Mar-86	1.37	1.53	1.33		1.29	1.31
Apr-86	1.38	1.53	1.33		1.29	1.31
May-86	1.38	1.53	1.33		1.29	1.31
Jun-86	1.37	1.54	1.33		1.29	1.31
Jul-86	1.37	1.53	1.33		1.29	1.3
Aug-86	1.37	1.53	1.33		1.29	1.3
Sep-86	1.37	1.54	1.33		1.29	1.3
Oct-86	1.37	1.54	1.33		1.29	1.3
Nov-86	1.37	1.54	1.33		1.29	1.3
Dec-86	1.37	1.54	1.33		1.29	1.3
Jan-87	1.37	1.54	1.33		1.29	1.3
Feb-87	1.37	1.54	1.33		1.29	1.3
Mar-87	1.37	1.53	1.33		1.28	1.3
Apr-87	1.37	1.53	1.32		1.28	1.3
May-87	1.37	1.53	1.32		1.28	1.3
Jun-87	1.36	1.53	1.32		1.28	1.3
Jul-87	1.36	1.53	1.32		1.28	1.3
Aug-87	1.36	1.53	1.32		1.28	1.29
Sep-87	1.36	1.53	1.32		1.28	1.3
Oct-87	1.36	1.53	1.32		1.28	1.29
Nov-87	1.36	1.53	1.32		1.28	1.29
Dec-87	1.36	1.53	1.32		1.28	1.29
Jan-88	1.35	1.53	1.31		1.28	1.29
Feb-88	1.35	1.53	1.31		1.27	1.28
Mar-88	1.35	1.52	1.31		1.27	1.28
Apr-88	1.35	1.52	1.3		1.26	1.28
May-88	1.35	1.52	1.3		1.26	1.27
Jun-88	1.35	1.52	1.3		1.26	1.27
Jul-88	1.35	1.51	1.3		1.25	1.27
Aug-88	1.35	1.51	1.3		1.25	1.27
Sep-88	1.35	1.51	1.3		1.25	1.27
Oct-88	1.35	1.51	1.3		1.24	1.27
Nov-88	1.35	1.51	1.3		1.24	1.27
Dec-88	1.34	1.51	1.3		1.24	1.27
Jan-89	1.34	1.51	1.3		1.24	1.27
Feb-89	1.33	1.5	1.3		1.23	1.27
Mar-89	1.32	1.48	1.3		1.23	1.26
Apr-89	1.31	1.46	1.29		1.22	1.26
May-89	1.31	1.45	1.29		1.22	1.25
Jun-89	1.31	1.44	1.29		1.22	1.25
Jul-89	1.31	1.44	1.29		1.22	1.25
Aug-89	1.31	1.45	1.29		1.22	1.26
Sep-89	1.31	1.46	1.29		1.23	1.26
Oct-89	1.32	1.47	1.29		1.23	1.27
Nov-89	1.33	1.47	1.3		1.24	1.27
Dec-89	1.34	1.48	1.3		1.24	1.27
Jan-90	1.34	1.48	1.3		1.24	1.27
Feb-90	1.34	1.47	1.3		1.24	1.27
Mar-90	1.33	1.47	1.29		1.23	1.26
Apr-90	1.31	1.46	1.28		1.22	1.25
May-90	1.29	1.45	1.27		1.2	1.24
Jun-90	1.28	1.45	1.26		1.19	1.23
Jul-90	1.26	1.44	1.25		1.18	1.22
Aug-90	1.25	1.43	1.24		1.17	1.21
Sep-90	1.25	1.42	1.23		1.16	1.2
Oct-90	1.25	1.41	1.22		1.15	1.2
Nov-90	1.25	1.39	1.21		1.14	1.18
Dec-90	1.23	1.38	1.2		1.13	1.17
Jan-91	1.22	1.36	1.18		1.12	1.15
Feb-91	1.19	1.33	1.16		1.1	1.12
Mar-91	1.16	1.29	1.12		1.07	1.09
Apr-91	1.12	1.27	1.09		1.04	1.05
May-91	1.1	1.24	1.05		1	1.02
Jun-91	1.08	1.22	1.02		0.97	0.99
Jul-91	1.07	1.2	1		0.95	0.97
Aug-91	1.06	1.19	0.98		0.93	0.95
Sep-91	1.06	1.17	0.96		0.91	0.94
Oct-91	1.06	1.15	0.94		0.88	0.92
Nov-91	1.05	1.13	0.92		0.85	0.9
Dec-91	1.05	1.11	0.9		0.82	0.88
Jan-92	1.04	1.09	0.87		0.79	0.86
Feb-92	1.04	1.07	0.85		0.77	0.84
Mar-92	1.03	1.05	0.84		0.76	0.83
Apr-92	1.03	1.04	0.83		0.75	0.82
May-92	1.03	1.04	0.83		0.75	0.82
Jun-92	1.03	1.03	0.82		0.75	0.82
Jul-92	1.03	1.02	0.82		0.75	0.81
Aug-92	1.03	1.01	0.81		0.74	0.8
Sep-92	1.03	0.99	0.8		0.73	0.79
Oct-92	1.03	0.98	0.79		0.73	0.78
Nov-92	1.01	0.95	0.77		0.71	0.76
Dec-92	1.01	0.93	0.76		0.7	0.75
Jan-93	1.01	0.91	0.75		0.7	0.74
Feb-93	1.01	0.89	0.75		0.7	0.74
Mar-93	1.01	0.88	0.75		0.7	0.74
Apr-93	1.01	0.87	0.75		0.7	0.74
May-93	1	0.87	0.75		0.7	0.74
Jun-93	1	0.87	0.75		0.7	0.74
Jul-93	1	0.87	0.75		0.7	0.74
Aug-93	1	0.87	0.75		0.7	0.74
Sep-93	1	0.86	0.75		0.69	0.74
Oct-93	1	0.85	0.75		0.69	0.74
Nov-93	1	0.85	0.75		0.69	0.74
Dec-93	1	0.84	0.74		0.69	0.73
Jan-94	0.99	0.84	0.74		0.69	0.73
Feb-94	0.99	0.84	0.74		0.69	0.73
Mar-94	0.99	0.84	0.74		0.68	0.73
Apr-94	0.99	0.84	0.74		0.68	0.73
May-94	0.99	0.83	0.73		0.68	0.72
Jun-94	0.99	0.83	0.72		0.68	0.72
Jul-94	0.99	0.82	0.72		0.68	0.71
Aug-94	0.99	0.81	0.71		0.68	0.71
Sep-94	0.99	0.81	0.71		0.68	0.71
Oct-94	0.99	0.81	0.7		0.67	0.7
Nov-94	0.99	0.81	0.7		0.67	0.7
Dec-94	0.98	0.81	0.7		0.67	0.7
Jan-95	0.98	0.81	0.69		0.67	0.7
Feb-95	0.98	0.8	0.69		0.67	0.69
Mar-95	0.98	0.8	0.68		0.66	0.69
Apr-95	0.97	0.79	0.67		0.65	0.67
May-95	0.97	0.78	0.66		0.64	0.66
Jun-95	0.96	0.76	0.64	0.74	0.63	0.65
Jul-95	0.95	0.75	0.62	0.73	0.61	0.63
Aug-95	0.95	0.74	0.61	0.73	0.6	0.62
Sep-95	0.94	0.73	0.6	0.72	0.59	0.61
Oct-95	0.93	0.73	0.59	0.71	0.59	0.61
Nov-95	0.93	0.72	0.58	0.71	0.58	0.6
Dec-95	0.92	0.72	0.57	0.7	0.57	0.59
Jan-96	0.92	0.71	0.55	0.69	0.56	0.58
Feb-96	0.91	0.7	0.54	0.69	0.55	0.57
Mar-96	0.91	0.7	0.53	0.69	0.55	0.56
Apr-96	0.91	0.7	0.53	0.69	0.55	0.56
May-96	0.9	0.69	0.53	0.68	0.55	0.56
Jun-96	0.88	0.69	0.53	0.67	0.54	0.56
Jul-96	0.86	0.69	0.53	0.66	0.54	0.56
Aug-96	0.83	0.68	0.53	0.64	0.54	0.55
Sep-96	0.81	0.68	0.53	0.62	0.54	0.55
Oct-96	0.8	0.68	0.53	0.61	0.54	0.55
Nov-96	0.8	0.68	0.53	0.6	0.54	0.56
Dec-96	0.8	0.68	0.54	0.59	0.54	0.56
Jan-97	0.8	0.68	0.54	0.58	0.54	0.56
Feb-97	0.8	0.68	0.54	0.58	0.55	0.56
Mar-97	0.8	0.68	0.54	0.58	0.55	0.56
Apr-97	0.8	0.67	0.54	0.58	0.55	0.56
May-97	0.8	0.67	0.54	0.58	0.55	0.56
Jun-97	0.8	0.67	0.54	0.58	0.54	0.56
Jul-97	0.8	0.67	0.54	0.58	0.54	0.56
Aug-97	0.8	0.67	0.54	0.58	0.54	0.56
Sep-97	0.8	0.67	0.54	0.58	0.54	0.56
Oct-97	0.8	0.67	0.54	0.58	0.54	0.56
Nov-97	0.8	0.67	0.54	0.58	0.54	0.56
Dec-97	0.8	0.67	0.54	0.58	0.54	0.56
Jan-98	0.8	0.67	0.54	0.57	0.53	0.56
Feb-98	0.8	0.67	0.54	0.57	0.53	0.56
Mar-98	0.8	0.68	0.54	0.57	0.53	0.56
Apr-98	0.81	0.68	0.54	0.57	0.53	0.56
May-98	0.81	0.68	0.54	0.56	0.53	0.56
Jun-98	0.81	0.68	0.54	0.56	0.53	0.56
Jul-98	0.82	0.68	0.54	0.56	0.53	0.56
Aug-98	0.82	0.68	0.54	0.56	0.53	0.56
Sep-98	0.82	0.68	0.54	0.56	0.53	0.56
Oct-98	0.82	0.68	0.54	0.56	0.53	0.56
Nov-98	0.82	0.68	0.54	0.56	0.52	0.55
Dec-98	0.81	0.67	0.53	0.56	0.52	0.55
Jan-99	0.81	0.67	0.53	0.56	0.52	0.55
Feb-99	0.82	0.67	0.53	0.57	0.52	0.55
Mar-99	0.82	0.67	0.53	0.57	0.53	0.55
Apr-99	0.82	0.67	0.53	0.58	0.53	0.55
May-99	0.82	0.67	0.54	0.58	0.53	0.55
Jun-99	0.82	0.68	0.54	0.59	0.53	0.55
Jul-99	0.82	0.68	0.54	0.59	0.53	0.56
Aug-99	0.82	0.67	0.54	0.6	0.53	0.55
Sep-99	0.82	0.65	0.53	0.6	0.52	0.55
Oct-99	0.81	0.64	0.52	0.6	0.51	0.54
Nov-99	0.79	0.62	0.52	0.6	0.5	0.52
Dec-99	0.76	0.6	0.51	0.59	0.49	0.51
Jan-00	0.75	0.59	0.5	0.59	0.48	0.5
Feb-00	0.75	0.58	0.5	0.58	0.48	0.5
Mar-00	0.75	0.58	0.5	0.58	0.48	0.5
Apr-00	0.75	0.58	0.5	0.58	0.48	0.5
May-00	0.75	0.59	0.51	0.58	0.48	0.5
Jun-00	0.74	0.59	0.51	0.58	0.48	0.5
Jul-00	0.73	0.58	0.51	0.58	0.47	0.5
Aug-00	0.73	0.58	0.51	0.58	0.47	0.5
Sep-00	0.73	0.59	0.51	0.58	0.47	0.5
Oct-00	0.72	0.59	0.51	0.57	0.46	0.5
Nov-00	0.7	0.59	0.5	0.57	0.46	0.49
Dec-00	0.68	0.59	0.51	0.56	0.46	0.49
1-Jan	0.68	0.58	0.51	0.55	0.47	0.5
1-Feb	0.68	0.59	0.52	0.54	0.48	0.51
1-Mar	0.68	0.59	0.52	0.53	0.48	0.51
1-Apr	0.68	0.58	0.52	0.53	0.49	0.51
1-May	0.67	0.58	0.52	0.53	0.49	0.51
1-Jun	0.66	0.58	0.53	0.53	0.5	0.51
1-Jul	0.66	0.58	0.53	0.53	0.5	0.51
1-Aug	0.66	0.58	0.53	0.53	0.5	0.5
1-Sep	0.67	0.6	0.53	0.53	0.49	0.5
1-Oct	0.68	0.6	0.53	0.52	0.49	0.5
1-Nov	0.69	0.6	0.53	0.52	0.49	0.5
1-Dec	0.72	0.6	0.53	0.52	0.5	0.5
2-Jan	0.75	0.6	0.53	0.53	0.5	0.51
2-Feb	0.76	0.6	0.53	0.53	0.5	0.51
2-Mar	0.76	0.61	0.52	0.53	0.5	0.5
2-Apr	0.76	0.6	0.52	0.53	0.5	0.5
2-May	0.76	0.6	0.52	0.53	0.49	0.5
2-Jun	0.76	0.6	0.52	0.53	0.49	0.5
2-Jul	0.76	0.6	0.52	0.53	0.49	0.51
2-Aug	0.76	0.6	0.53	0.53	0.49	0.51
2-Sep	0.76	0.6	0.53	0.52	0.49	0.51
2-Oct	0.76	0.6	0.53	0.52	0.49	0.51
2-Nov	0.76	0.6	0.53	0.52	0.5	0.51
2-Dec	0.76	0.6	0.53	0.52	0.5	0.51
3-Jan	0.76	0.61	0.53	0.52	0.5	0.51
3-Feb	0.76	0.61	0.53	0.52	0.51	0.51
3-Mar	0.76	0.62	0.53	0.52	0.51	0.51
3-Apr	0.76	0.63	0.54	0.52	0.51	0.52
3-May	0.76	0.63	0.54	0.52	0.52	0.52
3-Jun	0.76	0.64	0.55	0.52	0.53	0.53
3-Jul	0.77	0.64	0.56	0.52	0.53	0.54
3-Aug	0.77	0.64	0.56	0.52	0.54	0.55
3-Sep	0.77	0.65	0.57	0.53	0.54	0.55
3-Oct	0.77	0.65	0.58	0.53	0.55	0.56
3-Nov	0.77	0.65	0.58	0.53	0.55	0.56
3-Dec	0.77	0.65	0.58	0.54	0.55	0.56
4-Jan	0.77	0.65	0.58	0.54	0.56	0.56
4-Feb	0.76	0.65	0.58	0.54	0.56	0.56
4-Mar	0.76	0.64	0.59	0.54	0.56	0.56
4-Apr	0.76	0.64	0.59	0.54	0.56	0.56
4-May	0.76	0.64	0.59	0.54	0.56	0.56
4-Jun	0.76	0.64	0.59	0.55	0.56	0.56
4-Jul	0.76	0.64	0.59	0.55	0.56	0.56
4-Aug	0.76	0.64	0.59	0.55	0.56	0.56
4-Sep	0.75	0.64	0.59	0.55	0.57	0.57
4-Oct	0.75	0.65	0.6	0.56	0.58	0.57
4-Nov	0.75	0.65	0.61	0.56	0.58	0.58
4-Dec	0.75	0.66	0.61	0.56	0.59	0.58
5-Jan	0.75	0.66	0.62	0.56	0.6	0.59
5-Feb	0.75	0.66	0.62	0.56	0.6	0.59
5-Mar	0.75	0.66	0.63	0.56	0.6	0.59
5-Apr	0.75	0.66	0.63	0.56	0.6	0.59
5-May	0.75	0.66	0.63	0.56	0.6	0.6
5-Jun	0.75	0.66	0.63	0.56	0.6	0.6
5-Jul	0.75	0.66	0.63	0.56	0.61	0.6
5-Aug	0.76	0.67	0.64	0.57	0.61	0.6
5-Sep	0.77	0.67	0.64	0.57	0.61	0.6
5-Oct	0.79	0.67	0.64	0.57	0.62	0.6
5-Nov	0.8	0.67	0.64	0.57	0.62	0.61
5-Dec	0.8	0.67	0.64	0.57	0.62	0.61
6-Jan	0.8	0.67	0.64	0.57	0.62	0.61
6-Feb	0.8	0.67	0.64	0.57	0.62	0.61
6-Mar	0.81	0.67	0.64	0.57	0.62	0.61
6-Apr	0.82	0.66	0.64	0.57	0.61	0.61
6-May	0.81	0.66	0.64	0.57	0.61	0.61
6-Jun	0.81	0.66	0.64	0.57	0.61	0.61
6-Jul	0.81	0.66	0.64	0.58	0.61	0.61
6-Aug	0.81	0.66	0.64	0.58	0.61	0.61
6-Sep	0.81	0.66	0.64	0.58	0.61	0.61
6-Oct	0.82	0.66	0.64	0.58	0.61	0.61
6-Nov	0.83	0.67	0.64	0.58	0.62	0.61
6-Dec	0.84	0.67	0.64	0.59	0.63	0.62
7-Jan	0.85	0.68	0.65	0.59	0.63	0.62
7-Feb	0.85	0.68	0.65	0.6	0.63	0.62
7-Mar	0.85	0.68	0.65	0.6	0.63	0.62
7-Apr	0.86	0.69	0.65	0.61	0.64	0.63
7-May	0.88	0.7	0.66	0.62	0.65	0.64
7-Jun	0.9	0.71	0.68	0.63	0.66	0.65
7-Jul	0.91	0.72	0.69	0.64	0.68	0.66
7-Aug	0.92	0.73	0.7	0.65	0.69	0.68
7-Sep	0.92	0.74	0.72	0.66	0.7	0.69
7-Oct	0.93	0.75	0.72	0.67	0.71	0.69
7-Nov	0.93	0.75	0.72	0.67	0.71	0.7
7-Dec	0.95	0.76	0.73	0.67	0.72	0.71
8-Jan	0.96	0.76	0.74	0.68	0.73	0.72
8-Feb	0.98	0.77	0.74	0.68	0.73	0.73
8-Mar	1	0.78	0.75	0.69	0.74	0.74
8-Apr	1.01	0.78	0.76	0.7	0.75	0.75
8-May	1.02	0.79	0.77	0.71	0.76	0.76
8-Jun	1.05	0.8	0.78	0.72	0.77	0.77
8-Jul	1.08	0.8	0.79	0.73	0.78	0.78
8-Aug	1.09	0.81	0.8	0.75	0.79	0.8
8-Sep	1.11	0.81	0.8	0.76	0.8	0.8
8-Oct	1.1	0.81	0.8	0.77	0.81	0.8
8-Nov	1.12	0.81	0.8	0.78	0.81	0.8
8-Dec	1.19	0.81	0.8	0.79	0.81	0.81
9-Jan	1.26	0.81	0.8	0.79	0.81	0.81
9-Feb	1.31	0.81	0.81	0.79	0.81	0.82
9-Mar	1.37	0.81	0.81	0.79	0.81	0.82
9-Apr	1.4	0.81	0.8	0.79	0.8	0.82
9-May	1.4	0.81	0.81	0.79	0.8	0.82
9-Jun	1.4	0.81	0.81	0.79	0.8	0.83
9-Jul	1.41	0.81	0.81	0.79	0.8	0.83
9-Aug	1.41	0.81	0.81	0.8	0.81	0.83
9-Sep	1.41	0.81	0.81	0.8	0.81	0.83

Return to Figure 12

Figure 13. Average performance of selected core inflation measures at 12-month sampling interval: Geometric average error over 5 benchmarks using rolling 10-year windows

Ending date of rolling 10-year window	Overall PCE	Excluding food and energy	Average trimmed mean	ARIMA(102)	Variance of price change fixed 60-month window	Average of overall PCE XFE and average trimmed mean
Jan-81	1.88	2.04
Feb-81	1.9	2.06	1.82			1.84
Mar-81	1.92	2.07	1.84			1.85
Apr-81	1.94	2.09	1.86			1.87
May-81	1.96	2.11	1.88			1.89
Jun-81	1.97	2.12	1.89			1.9
Jul-81	1.97	2.14	1.9			1.91
Aug-81	1.98	2.15	1.91			1.93
Sep-81	1.99	2.16	1.93			1.94
Oct-81	1.99	2.17	1.94			1.95
Nov-81	2	2.18	1.95			1.96
Dec-81	2	2.19	1.96			1.97
Jan-82	2	2.19	1.97			1.98
Feb-82	2	2.2	1.98			1.98
Mar-82	2	2.2	1.98			1.98
Apr-82	2	2.21	1.98			1.98
May-82	2	2.21	1.98			1.98
Jun-82	1.99	2.21	1.98			1.98
Jul-82	1.98	2.2	1.98			1.98
Aug-82	1.97	2.2	1.98			1.98
Sep-82	1.96	2.19	1.97			1.97
Oct-82	1.95	2.19	1.96			1.96
Nov-82	1.93	2.18	1.95			1.95
Dec-82	1.92	2.17	1.94			1.93
Jan-83	1.9	2.15	1.92			1.92
Feb-83	1.88	2.13	1.9			1.9
Mar-83	1.86	2.11	1.88			1.87
Apr-83	1.84	2.08	1.86			1.85
May-83	1.82	2.06	1.84			1.83
Jun-83	1.81	2.04	1.82			1.81
Jul-83	1.8	2.02	1.8			1.8
Aug-83	1.79	1.99	1.78			1.77
Sep-83	1.78	1.97	1.76			1.75
Oct-83	1.77	1.95	1.73			1.73
Nov-83	1.76	1.93	1.71			1.71
Dec-83	1.76	1.91	1.69			1.69
Jan-84	1.76	1.89	1.67			1.68
Feb-84	1.75	1.88	1.66			1.66
Mar-84	1.75	1.87	1.65			1.65
Apr-84	1.74	1.86	1.64			1.65
May-84	1.73	1.85	1.63			1.64
Jun-84	1.71	1.85	1.63			1.64
Jul-84	1.7	1.85	1.62			1.63
Aug-84	1.68	1.84	1.62			1.63
Sep-84	1.65	1.83	1.61			1.62
Oct-84	1.62	1.82	1.6			1.61
Nov-84	1.58	1.8	1.58			1.59
Dec-84	1.53	1.78	1.56			1.56
Jan-85	1.49	1.76	1.54			1.54
Feb-85	1.45	1.73	1.52			1.51
Mar-85	1.42	1.71	1.5			1.49
Apr-85	1.39	1.69	1.48			1.47
May-85	1.38	1.66	1.47			1.46
Jun-85	1.36	1.65	1.46			1.45
Jul-85	1.36	1.64	1.46			1.45
Aug-85	1.35	1.64	1.46			1.44
Sep-85	1.35	1.64	1.46			1.44
Oct-85	1.35	1.64	1.47			1.45
Nov-85	1.35	1.65	1.47			1.45
Dec-85	1.35	1.65	1.47			1.45
Jan-86	1.34	1.65	1.48		1.47	1.45
Feb-86	1.34	1.65	1.48		1.46	1.45
Mar-86	1.34	1.65	1.48		1.46	1.45
Apr-86	1.35	1.65	1.48		1.46	1.46
May-86	1.35	1.65	1.48		1.47	1.46
Jun-86	1.36	1.65	1.48		1.47	1.46
Jul-86	1.36	1.65	1.48		1.47	1.46
Aug-86	1.36	1.65	1.48		1.47	1.46
Sep-86	1.36	1.65	1.48		1.47	1.46
Oct-86	1.37	1.66	1.48		1.47	1.46
Nov-86	1.37	1.66	1.48		1.47	1.46
Dec-86	1.38	1.66	1.48		1.47	1.46
Jan-87	1.38	1.66	1.48		1.47	1.46
Feb-87	1.38	1.66	1.49		1.47	1.46
Mar-87	1.38	1.66	1.49		1.47	1.46
Apr-87	1.38	1.66	1.49		1.47	1.46
May-87	1.38	1.66	1.49		1.47	1.46
Jun-87	1.38	1.66	1.49		1.47	1.46
Jul-87	1.38	1.66	1.49		1.47	1.46
Aug-87	1.38	1.66	1.48		1.47	1.46
Sep-87	1.38	1.66	1.48		1.47	1.46
Oct-87	1.38	1.66	1.48		1.47	1.46
Nov-87	1.38	1.66	1.48		1.47	1.46
Dec-87	1.38	1.66	1.48		1.47	1.46
Jan-88	1.38	1.66	1.48		1.47	1.46
Feb-88	1.38	1.65	1.48		1.47	1.45
Mar-88	1.38	1.65	1.47		1.47	1.45
Apr-88	1.37	1.65	1.47		1.46	1.45
May-88	1.37	1.65	1.47		1.46	1.44
Jun-88	1.37	1.64	1.46		1.46	1.44
Jul-88	1.36	1.64	1.46		1.45	1.44
Aug-88	1.36	1.64	1.45		1.45	1.43
Sep-88	1.36	1.63	1.45		1.44	1.43
Oct-88	1.36	1.63	1.45		1.44	1.43
Nov-88	1.35	1.63	1.45		1.44	1.43
Dec-88	1.35	1.63	1.45		1.43	1.42
Jan-89	1.35	1.63	1.45		1.43	1.42
Feb-89	1.34	1.62	1.44		1.42	1.42
Mar-89	1.33	1.61	1.44		1.42	1.42
Apr-89	1.33	1.6	1.44		1.41	1.41
May-89	1.32	1.59	1.43		1.4	1.41
Jun-89	1.32	1.58	1.43		1.4	1.4
Jul-89	1.32	1.58	1.43		1.4	1.4
Aug-89	1.32	1.58	1.43		1.4	1.4
Sep-89	1.32	1.58	1.43		1.4	1.4
Oct-89	1.33	1.58	1.43		1.41	1.41
Nov-89	1.33	1.58	1.44		1.41	1.41
Dec-89	1.33	1.58	1.44		1.41	1.41
Jan-90	1.33	1.58	1.44		1.41	1.41
Feb-90	1.32	1.58	1.43		1.41	1.41
Mar-90	1.31	1.57	1.43		1.4	1.4
Apr-90	1.29	1.57	1.42		1.39	1.39
May-90	1.28	1.56	1.42		1.38	1.39
Jun-90	1.27	1.56	1.41		1.37	1.38
Jul-90	1.25	1.55	1.4		1.36	1.37
Aug-90	1.24	1.54	1.39		1.35	1.36
Sep-90	1.23	1.54	1.38		1.34	1.35
Oct-90	1.22	1.52	1.37		1.33	1.34
Nov-90	1.2	1.51	1.35		1.31	1.32
Dec-90	1.18	1.49	1.34		1.29	1.3
Jan-91	1.15	1.47	1.32		1.27	1.28
Feb-91	1.12	1.44	1.29		1.25	1.26
Mar-91	1.09	1.42	1.27		1.22	1.23
Apr-91	1.05	1.39	1.24		1.2	1.2
May-91	1.01	1.36	1.21		1.17	1.17
Jun-91	0.98	1.33	1.18		1.13	1.13
Jul-91	0.95	1.3	1.15		1.11	1.11
Aug-91	0.93	1.27	1.12		1.08	1.08
Sep-91	0.9	1.24	1.08		1.04	1.04
Oct-91	0.87	1.21	1.05		1.01	1.01
Nov-91	0.85	1.18	1.01		0.97	0.97
Dec-91	0.83	1.15	0.98		0.93	0.94
Jan-92	0.82	1.12	0.94		0.89	0.9
Feb-92	0.8	1.1	0.91		0.86	0.88
Mar-92	0.8	1.08	0.89		0.83	0.86
Apr-92	0.8	1.06	0.87		0.81	0.84
May-92	0.8	1.04	0.85		0.79	0.82
Jun-92	0.8	1.02	0.83		0.77	0.81
Jul-92	0.8	1	0.81		0.75	0.79
Aug-92	0.79	0.98	0.79		0.73	0.77
Sep-92	0.79	0.95	0.77		0.71	0.75
Oct-92	0.79	0.94	0.76		0.7	0.74
Nov-92	0.79	0.91	0.74		0.69	0.72
Dec-92	0.78	0.9	0.73		0.68	0.71
Jan-93	0.78	0.88	0.72		0.67	0.7
Feb-93	0.78	0.85	0.71		0.67	0.69
Mar-93	0.78	0.83	0.7		0.66	0.68
Apr-93	0.78	0.82	0.7		0.66	0.68
May-93	0.78	0.81	0.69		0.65	0.67
Jun-93	0.78	0.8	0.69		0.65	0.67
Jul-93	0.78	0.79	0.69		0.64	0.66
Aug-93	0.78	0.78	0.69		0.64	0.66
Sep-93	0.78	0.77	0.68		0.64	0.66
Oct-93	0.78	0.76	0.68		0.64	0.66
Nov-93	0.78	0.75	0.68		0.64	0.66
Dec-93	0.78	0.75	0.68		0.64	0.65
Jan-94	0.77	0.74	0.68		0.63	0.65
Feb-94	0.77	0.74	0.68		0.63	0.65
Mar-94	0.77	0.74	0.67		0.63	0.65
Apr-94	0.77	0.74	0.67		0.63	0.65
May-94	0.77	0.73	0.67		0.63	0.64
Jun-94	0.77	0.73	0.66		0.63	0.64
Jul-94	0.77	0.72	0.66		0.63	0.64
Aug-94	0.77	0.72	0.66		0.63	0.64
Sep-94	0.77	0.72	0.65		0.62	0.63
Oct-94	0.76	0.72	0.65		0.62	0.63
Nov-94	0.76	0.71	0.64		0.62	0.63
Dec-94	0.76	0.71	0.64		0.62	0.62
Jan-95	0.76	0.71	0.63		0.62	0.62
Feb-95	0.76	0.7	0.63		0.62	0.61
Mar-95	0.76	0.7	0.62		0.61	0.61
Apr-95	0.75	0.69	0.61		0.6	0.6
May-95	0.75	0.68	0.6		0.6	0.59
Jun-95	0.74	0.67	0.58		0.58	0.57
Jul-95	0.73	0.66	0.57		0.57	0.56
Aug-95	0.73	0.65	0.55		0.56	0.55
Sep-95	0.72	0.64	0.54		0.55	0.53
Oct-95	0.71	0.63	0.53		0.54	0.52
Nov-95	0.7	0.62	0.51		0.53	0.51
Dec-95	0.69	0.61	0.5	0.67	0.52	0.49
Jan-96	0.68	0.6	0.48	0.67	0.51	0.48
Feb-96	0.68	0.6	0.47	0.66	0.5	0.47
Mar-96	0.68	0.6	0.46	0.66	0.5	0.46
Apr-96	0.68	0.6	0.46	0.66	0.5	0.46
May-96	0.67	0.59	0.45	0.66	0.5	0.46
Jun-96	0.66	0.59	0.45	0.65	0.5	0.46
Jul-96	0.65	0.59	0.45	0.65	0.5	0.46
Aug-96	0.64	0.59	0.45	0.64	0.5	0.46
Sep-96	0.63	0.58	0.45	0.63	0.5	0.46
Oct-96	0.62	0.58	0.45	0.63	0.5	0.46
Nov-96	0.62	0.58	0.45	0.62	0.5	0.46
Dec-96	0.61	0.58	0.45	0.61	0.5	0.46
Jan-97	0.59	0.58	0.46	0.6	0.5	0.46
Feb-97	0.58	0.57	0.46	0.58	0.5	0.47
Mar-97	0.58	0.57	0.47	0.58	0.5	0.47
Apr-97	0.58	0.57	0.47	0.57	0.5	0.47
May-97	0.57	0.57	0.47	0.56	0.5	0.47
Jun-97	0.57	0.57	0.47	0.56	0.5	0.47
Jul-97	0.57	0.57	0.47	0.55	0.5	0.47
Aug-97	0.57	0.57	0.48	0.55	0.5	0.48
Sep-97	0.57	0.57	0.48	0.55	0.5	0.48
Oct-97	0.57	0.57	0.48	0.55	0.5	0.48
Nov-97	0.57	0.56	0.48	0.55	0.5	0.48
Dec-97	0.57	0.56	0.48	0.55	0.49	0.48
Jan-98	0.57	0.56	0.49	0.55	0.49	0.48
Feb-98	0.57	0.56	0.49	0.55	0.49	0.48
Mar-98	0.57	0.56	0.49	0.54	0.49	0.48
Apr-98	0.57	0.56	0.49	0.54	0.48	0.48
May-98	0.57	0.56	0.49	0.54	0.48	0.48
Jun-98	0.57	0.57	0.48	0.53	0.48	0.48
Jul-98	0.58	0.57	0.48	0.53	0.48	0.48
Aug-98	0.58	0.57	0.48	0.53	0.48	0.48
Sep-98	0.58	0.57	0.48	0.53	0.48	0.48
Oct-98	0.59	0.57	0.48	0.53	0.47	0.47
Nov-98	0.59	0.56	0.47	0.52	0.47	0.46
Dec-98	0.59	0.56	0.46	0.52	0.46	0.46
Jan-99	0.59	0.56	0.46	0.52	0.46	0.46
Feb-99	0.59	0.56	0.46	0.52	0.46	0.46
Mar-99	0.6	0.56	0.46	0.53	0.47	0.46
Apr-99	0.6	0.56	0.46	0.54	0.47	0.46
May-99	0.6	0.57	0.46	0.54	0.47	0.46
Jun-99	0.61	0.57	0.46	0.55	0.47	0.46
Jul-99	0.61	0.57	0.46	0.56	0.47	0.46
Aug-99	0.61	0.57	0.46	0.56	0.47	0.46
Sep-99	0.61	0.57	0.46	0.57	0.47	0.46
Oct-99	0.6	0.56	0.46	0.57	0.47	0.46
Nov-99	0.59	0.55	0.45	0.57	0.46	0.45
Dec-99	0.59	0.54	0.45	0.57	0.46	0.44
Jan-00	0.58	0.53	0.45	0.57	0.45	0.44
Feb-00	0.58	0.52	0.44	0.57	0.45	0.44
Mar-00	0.59	0.52	0.44	0.58	0.45	0.44
Apr-00	0.59	0.52	0.44	0.58	0.45	0.44
May-00	0.59	0.52	0.45	0.58	0.45	0.44
Jun-00	0.59	0.53	0.45	0.58	0.46	0.44
Jul-00	0.59	0.53	0.45	0.58	0.46	0.44
Aug-00	0.59	0.53	0.45	0.58	0.46	0.44
Sep-00	0.59	0.54	0.45	0.58	0.46	0.44
Oct-00	0.59	0.54	0.45	0.58	0.46	0.44
Nov-00	0.58	0.54	0.45	0.58	0.45	0.44
Dec-00	0.56	0.54	0.45	0.57	0.45	0.44
1-Jan	0.56	0.54	0.46	0.57	0.46	0.44
1-Feb	0.56	0.54	0.46	0.57	0.46	0.45
1-Mar	0.55	0.54	0.46	0.56	0.46	0.45
1-Apr	0.55	0.54	0.46	0.56	0.46	0.45
1-May	0.55	0.53	0.47	0.55	0.46	0.45
1-Jun	0.56	0.53	0.47	0.55	0.46	0.45
1-Jul	0.56	0.53	0.47	0.54	0.46	0.45
1-Aug	0.55	0.53	0.47	0.54	0.46	0.46
1-Sep	0.56	0.54	0.48	0.54	0.46	0.45
1-Oct	0.56	0.54	0.48	0.54	0.46	0.46
1-Nov	0.56	0.54	0.48	0.53	0.46	0.46
1-Dec	0.56	0.54	0.48	0.53	0.46	0.46
2-Jan	0.58	0.54	0.48	0.53	0.46	0.46
2-Feb	0.59	0.54	0.48	0.53	0.46	0.46
2-Mar	0.59	0.54	0.48	0.53	0.47	0.46
2-Apr	0.59	0.54	0.48	0.53	0.46	0.46
2-May	0.6	0.53	0.48	0.53	0.46	0.46
2-Jun	0.6	0.53	0.48	0.53	0.46	0.46
2-Jul	0.6	0.53	0.48	0.53	0.46	0.46
2-Aug	0.6	0.53	0.48	0.53	0.46	0.46
2-Sep	0.6	0.53	0.48	0.53	0.46	0.46
2-Oct	0.6	0.53	0.48	0.53	0.46	0.46
2-Nov	0.6	0.54	0.49	0.53	0.46	0.46
2-Dec	0.6	0.54	0.49	0.53	0.47	0.46
3-Jan	0.6	0.54	0.49	0.53	0.47	0.46
3-Feb	0.6	0.54	0.49	0.53	0.47	0.46
3-Mar	0.6	0.54	0.49	0.53	0.47	0.46
3-Apr	0.59	0.54	0.49	0.53	0.48	0.46
3-May	0.6	0.55	0.49	0.53	0.48	0.47
3-Jun	0.6	0.55	0.5	0.54	0.49	0.47
3-Jul	0.6	0.56	0.51	0.54	0.49	0.48
3-Aug	0.6	0.56	0.51	0.54	0.5	0.49
3-Sep	0.6	0.57	0.52	0.55	0.51	0.49
3-Oct	0.6	0.58	0.53	0.55	0.52	0.5
3-Nov	0.61	0.59	0.54	0.55	0.52	0.51
3-Dec	0.61	0.59	0.54	0.56	0.53	0.52
4-Jan	0.61	0.59	0.55	0.56	0.53	0.52
4-Feb	0.61	0.59	0.55	0.56	0.54	0.52
4-Mar	0.61	0.59	0.56	0.57	0.54	0.53
4-Apr	0.61	0.6	0.56	0.57	0.55	0.53
4-May	0.61	0.59	0.57	0.57	0.55	0.54
4-Jun	0.61	0.59	0.57	0.58	0.55	0.54
4-Jul	0.61	0.6	0.57	0.58	0.55	0.54
4-Aug	0.61	0.6	0.57	0.58	0.56	0.54
4-Sep	0.61	0.6	0.58	0.59	0.56	0.55
4-Oct	0.62	0.61	0.59	0.59	0.57	0.55
4-Nov	0.62	0.61	0.59	0.6	0.57	0.56
4-Dec	0.62	0.61	0.59	0.6	0.58	0.56
5-Jan	0.62	0.61	0.6	0.6	0.58	0.56
5-Feb	0.62	0.61	0.6	0.6	0.58	0.56
5-Mar	0.62	0.61	0.6	0.6	0.58	0.56
5-Apr	0.62	0.61	0.6	0.6	0.59	0.57
5-May	0.62	0.61	0.61	0.6	0.59	0.57
5-Jun	0.62	0.62	0.61	0.6	0.59	0.57
5-Jul	0.62	0.62	0.61	0.6	0.59	0.57
5-Aug	0.62	0.62	0.62	0.6	0.6	0.58
5-Sep	0.63	0.62	0.62	0.6	0.6	0.58
5-Oct	0.64	0.62	0.62	0.6	0.6	0.58
5-Nov	0.64	0.62	0.62	0.6	0.6	0.58
5-Dec	0.64	0.62	0.63	0.6	0.6	0.58
6-Jan	0.64	0.63	0.63	0.6	0.61	0.58
6-Feb	0.64	0.63	0.63	0.6	0.61	0.59
6-Mar	0.64	0.63	0.63	0.6	0.61	0.59
6-Apr	0.64	0.62	0.63	0.6	0.61	0.58
6-May	0.64	0.62	0.63	0.6	0.61	0.58
6-Jun	0.64	0.62	0.63	0.6	0.61	0.58
6-Jul	0.64	0.62	0.63	0.6	0.61	0.58
6-Aug	0.64	0.62	0.63	0.6	0.61	0.58
6-Sep	0.65	0.62	0.63	0.6	0.61	0.59
6-Oct	0.65	0.62	0.63	0.6	0.61	0.58
6-Nov	0.66	0.63	0.63	0.61	0.61	0.59
6-Dec	0.67	0.63	0.63	0.61	0.61	0.59
7-Jan	0.67	0.64	0.64	0.62	0.62	0.6
7-Feb	0.68	0.64	0.64	0.62	0.62	0.6
7-Mar	0.68	0.65	0.64	0.62	0.62	0.6
7-Apr	0.69	0.65	0.64	0.63	0.63	0.61
7-May	0.7	0.66	0.65	0.64	0.64	0.61
7-Jun	0.71	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.65	0.63
7-Jul	0.72	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.66	0.64
7-Aug	0.74	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.67	0.65
7-Sep	0.75	0.7	0.69	0.68	0.68	0.66
7-Oct	0.76	0.71	0.7	0.68	0.69	0.67
7-Nov	0.77	0.71	0.7	0.68	0.69	0.67
7-Dec	0.79	0.72	0.71	0.68	0.7	0.68
8-Jan	0.8	0.72	0.71	0.69	0.7	0.68
8-Feb	0.82	0.73	0.71	0.69	0.71	0.69
8-Mar	0.83	0.73	0.72	0.7	0.71	0.69
8-Apr	0.84	0.74	0.72	0.7	0.72	0.7
8-May	0.85	0.75	0.73	0.71	0.73	0.71
8-Jun	0.88	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.74	0.73
8-Jul	0.91	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.75	0.74
8-Aug	0.93	0.77	0.76	0.74	0.76	0.75
8-Sep	0.95	0.78	0.77	0.75	0.77	0.76
8-Oct	0.96	0.78	0.78	0.76	0.78	0.77
8-Nov	0.95	0.78	0.78	0.77	0.78	0.77
8-Dec	0.95	0.78	0.78	0.78	0.79	0.77
9-Jan	0.96	0.78	0.79	0.79	0.79	0.77
9-Feb	0.96	0.78	0.79	0.8	0.79	0.77
9-Mar	0.97	0.78	0.79	0.8	0.79	0.77
9-Apr	0.98	0.78	0.79	0.8	0.79	0.77
9-May	0.99	0.78	0.79	0.8	0.79	0.77
9-Jun	1	0.78	0.79	0.8	0.79	0.77
9-Jul	1.02	0.78	0.79	0.8	0.79	0.77
9-Aug	1.03	0.78	0.79	0.81	0.79	0.78
9-Sep	1.04	0.77	0.79	0.81	0.79	0.78

Return to Figure 13

Figure 14. Average performance of selected core inflation measures at each measure's best sampling interval: Geometric average error over 5 benchmarks using rolling 10-year windows

Ending date of rolling 10-year window	Overall PCE (20-month int.)	Excluding food and energy (13-month int.)	Average trimmed mean (16-month int.)	ARIMA(102) (7-month int.)	Variance of price change fixed 60-month window (10-month int.)	Average of overall PCE XFE and average trimmed mean (16-month int.)
Feb-81		2.07
Mar-81		2.09
Apr-81		2.11
May-81		2.13
Jun-81		2.14	1.97			1.99
Jul-81		2.15	1.98			2
Aug-81		2.16	2			2.01
Sep-81	2.1	2.18	2.01			2.02
Oct-81	2.11	2.19	2.02			2.04
Nov-81	2.12	2.2	2.04			2.05
Dec-81	2.13	2.21	2.05			2.06
Jan-82	2.13	2.21	2.06			2.07
Feb-82	2.14	2.22	2.07			2.08
Mar-82	2.14	2.22	2.08			2.08
Apr-82	2.14	2.23	2.08			2.09
May-82	2.14	2.23	2.09			2.09
Jun-82	2.14	2.23	2.09			2.09
Jul-82	2.14	2.23	2.09			2.09
Aug-82	2.14	2.22	2.09			2.09
Sep-82	2.14	2.22	2.09			2.09
Oct-82	2.13	2.21	2.08			2.08
Nov-82	2.12	2.2	2.08			2.07
Dec-82	2.11	2.19	2.07			2.06
Jan-83	2.1	2.18	2.05			2.05
Feb-83	2.09	2.16	2.03			2.03
Mar-83	2.07	2.13	2.01			2.01
Apr-83	2.05	2.11	1.99			1.99
May-83	2.04	2.09	1.97			1.97
Jun-83	2.02	2.06	1.96			1.95
Jul-83	2.01	2.05	1.94			1.93
Aug-83	2	2.02	1.92			1.91
Sep-83	1.99	2	1.89			1.89
Oct-83	1.98	1.98	1.87			1.87
Nov-83	1.97	1.96	1.85			1.85
Dec-83	1.96	1.94	1.83			1.83
Jan-84	1.95	1.92	1.82			1.82
Feb-84	1.95	1.91	1.8			1.81
Mar-84	1.95	1.89	1.79			1.79
Apr-84	1.94	1.89	1.78			1.79
May-84	1.94	1.88	1.77			1.78
Jun-84	1.94	1.88	1.77			1.78
Jul-84	1.93	1.88	1.76			1.77
Aug-84	1.93	1.87	1.76			1.77
Sep-84	1.92	1.86	1.75			1.77
Oct-84	1.91	1.85	1.75			1.76
Nov-84	1.89	1.84	1.74			1.75
Dec-84	1.87	1.82	1.73			1.73
Jan-85	1.85	1.8	1.71			1.72
Feb-85	1.83	1.78	1.7			1.7
Mar-85	1.81	1.76	1.69			1.69
Apr-85	1.79	1.73	1.67			1.67
May-85	1.77	1.71	1.66			1.65
Jun-85	1.75	1.69	1.64			1.64
Jul-85	1.73	1.68	1.64			1.63
Aug-85	1.71	1.68	1.63			1.62
Sep-85	1.69	1.68	1.62			1.61
Oct-85	1.68	1.68	1.62			1.61
Nov-85	1.66	1.68	1.62		1.39	1.61
Dec-85	1.65	1.68	1.62		1.39	1.6
Jan-86	1.64	1.68	1.61		1.39	1.6
Feb-86	1.63	1.68	1.61		1.39	1.6
Mar-86	1.62	1.68	1.61		1.39	1.59
Apr-86	1.62	1.68	1.61		1.39	1.59
May-86	1.62	1.68	1.61		1.39	1.6
Jun-86	1.62	1.68	1.61		1.39	1.6
Jul-86	1.62	1.68	1.61		1.39	1.6
Aug-86	1.62	1.68	1.61		1.39	1.6
Sep-86	1.62	1.69	1.61		1.39	1.6
Oct-86	1.63	1.69	1.61		1.39	1.6
Nov-86	1.63	1.69	1.61		1.4	1.6
Dec-86	1.63	1.69	1.61		1.4	1.6
Jan-87	1.64	1.69	1.61		1.4	1.6
Feb-87	1.64	1.69	1.61		1.4	1.6
Mar-87	1.64	1.69	1.61		1.4	1.6
Apr-87	1.64	1.69	1.61		1.4	1.6
May-87	1.64	1.69	1.62		1.4	1.6
Jun-87	1.65	1.69	1.62		1.4	1.6
Jul-87	1.65	1.69	1.62		1.4	1.6
Aug-87	1.65	1.69	1.62		1.4	1.6
Sep-87	1.65	1.69	1.61		1.4	1.6
Oct-87	1.65	1.69	1.61		1.4	1.6
Nov-87	1.65	1.69	1.61		1.4	1.6
Dec-87	1.65	1.69	1.61		1.4	1.6
Jan-88	1.65	1.69	1.61		1.4	1.6
Feb-88	1.65	1.69	1.61		1.39	1.6
Mar-88	1.65	1.68	1.61		1.39	1.59
Apr-88	1.65	1.68	1.61		1.39	1.59
May-88	1.65	1.68	1.6		1.38	1.59
Jun-88	1.65	1.67	1.6		1.38	1.59
Jul-88	1.65	1.67	1.6		1.37	1.58
Aug-88	1.65	1.67	1.59		1.37	1.58
Sep-88	1.64	1.67	1.59		1.36	1.58
Oct-88	1.64	1.67	1.59		1.36	1.58
Nov-88	1.64	1.66	1.59		1.36	1.58
Dec-88	1.64	1.66	1.59		1.35	1.57
Jan-89	1.63	1.66	1.59		1.35	1.57
Feb-89	1.63	1.65	1.58		1.35	1.57
Mar-89	1.62	1.64	1.58		1.34	1.56
Apr-89	1.61	1.63	1.57		1.33	1.55
May-89	1.6	1.62	1.57		1.33	1.55
Jun-89	1.6	1.62	1.57		1.33	1.55
Jul-89	1.6	1.61	1.56		1.33	1.54
Aug-89	1.6	1.61	1.56		1.33	1.54
Sep-89	1.6	1.61	1.56		1.33	1.54
Oct-89	1.6	1.61	1.56		1.33	1.54
Nov-89	1.6	1.61	1.56		1.34	1.55
Dec-89	1.6	1.61	1.56		1.34	1.55
Jan-90	1.6	1.61	1.56		1.34	1.55
Feb-90	1.6	1.61	1.56		1.34	1.54
Mar-90	1.59	1.6	1.56		1.33	1.54
Apr-90	1.59	1.6	1.55		1.32	1.53
May-90	1.58	1.59	1.55		1.31	1.53
Jun-90	1.57	1.59	1.54		1.3	1.52
Jul-90	1.57	1.58	1.53		1.29	1.51
Aug-90	1.55	1.57	1.53		1.28	1.51
Sep-90	1.54	1.57	1.52		1.27	1.5
Oct-90	1.52	1.56	1.5		1.25	1.48
Nov-90	1.5	1.54	1.49		1.24	1.47
Dec-90	1.48	1.52	1.47		1.22	1.45
Jan-91	1.45	1.5	1.45		1.2	1.43
Feb-91	1.42	1.48	1.43		1.19	1.41
Mar-91	1.39	1.45	1.4		1.16	1.38
Apr-91	1.35	1.42	1.37		1.13	1.35
May-91	1.3	1.39	1.34		1.1	1.31
Jun-91	1.26	1.36	1.3		1.07	1.27
Jul-91	1.23	1.33	1.28		1.04	1.24
Aug-91	1.2	1.3	1.25		1.01	1.22
Sep-91	1.16	1.27	1.22		0.98	1.19
Oct-91	1.12	1.24	1.18		0.94	1.15
Nov-91	1.09	1.21	1.15		0.9	1.12
Dec-91	1.06	1.18	1.11		0.86	1.08
Jan-92	1.03	1.15	1.07		0.84	1.04
Feb-92	1	1.12	1.03		0.81	1
Mar-92	0.97	1.1	1		0.79	0.97
Apr-92	0.94	1.08	0.96		0.77	0.94
May-92	0.92	1.06	0.94		0.75	0.91
Jun-92	0.9	1.04	0.91		0.73	0.89
Jul-92	0.88	1.02	0.89		0.72	0.87
Aug-92	0.86	0.99	0.86		0.71	0.84
Sep-92	0.84	0.97	0.83		0.7	0.82
Oct-92	0.83	0.95	0.81		0.7	0.8
Nov-92	0.82	0.92	0.79		0.69	0.77
Dec-92	0.81	0.9	0.76		0.68	0.75
Jan-93	0.81	0.89	0.75		0.67	0.73
Feb-93	0.8	0.86	0.73		0.66	0.72
Mar-93	0.8	0.84	0.72		0.66	0.71
Apr-93	0.8	0.83	0.72		0.65	0.7
May-93	0.79	0.82	0.71		0.65	0.7
Jun-93	0.79	0.81	0.71		0.65	0.69
Jul-93	0.79	0.8	0.7		0.65	0.68
Aug-93	0.79	0.78	0.69		0.65	0.68
Sep-93	0.79	0.77	0.69		0.65	0.67
Oct-93	0.79	0.76	0.68		0.64	0.66
Nov-93	0.78	0.75	0.68		0.64	0.66
Dec-93	0.78	0.74	0.67		0.64	0.65
Jan-94	0.78	0.74	0.67		0.64	0.65
Feb-94	0.77	0.74	0.67		0.64	0.65
Mar-94	0.77	0.74	0.67		0.64	0.65
Apr-94	0.77	0.73	0.66		0.64	0.64
May-94	0.77	0.73	0.66		0.64	0.64
Jun-94	0.77	0.73	0.66		0.63	0.64
Jul-94	0.77	0.72	0.66		0.63	0.64
Aug-94	0.77	0.71	0.65		0.63	0.63
Sep-94	0.77	0.71	0.65		0.63	0.63
Oct-94	0.77	0.71	0.65		0.63	0.63
Nov-94	0.77	0.71	0.64		0.63	0.62
Dec-94	0.77	0.71	0.64		0.62	0.62
Jan-95	0.77	0.71	0.63		0.62	0.62
Feb-95	0.76	0.7	0.63		0.62	0.61
Mar-95	0.76	0.69	0.62		0.62	0.61
Apr-95	0.76	0.68	0.61		0.61	0.6
May-95	0.75	0.67	0.59		0.6	0.58
Jun-95	0.75	0.67	0.58		0.59	0.57
Jul-95	0.74	0.66	0.57	0.72	0.58	0.56
Aug-95	0.73	0.65	0.55	0.71	0.57	0.54
Sep-95	0.72	0.64	0.54	0.7	0.56	0.53
Oct-95	0.71	0.63	0.53	0.7	0.55	0.52
Nov-95	0.7	0.62	0.51	0.69	0.54	0.51
Dec-95	0.69	0.61	0.5	0.69	0.52	0.49
Jan-96	0.68	0.6	0.48	0.68	0.51	0.48
Feb-96	0.68	0.59	0.47	0.67	0.51	0.47
Mar-96	0.67	0.59	0.46	0.67	0.51	0.47
Apr-96	0.67	0.59	0.46	0.67	0.51	0.46
May-96	0.67	0.59	0.45	0.67	0.51	0.46
Jun-96	0.66	0.58	0.45	0.66	0.51	0.46
Jul-96	0.66	0.58	0.45	0.65	0.51	0.46
Aug-96	0.65	0.58	0.45	0.64	0.5	0.45
Sep-96	0.65	0.58	0.45	0.63	0.51	0.45
Oct-96	0.64	0.57	0.45	0.61	0.51	0.45
Nov-96	0.63	0.57	0.45	0.59	0.51	0.46
Dec-96	0.62	0.57	0.45	0.58	0.51	0.46
Jan-97	0.61	0.57	0.45	0.57	0.51	0.46
Feb-97	0.61	0.57	0.46	0.57	0.51	0.46
Mar-97	0.6	0.57	0.46	0.57	0.51	0.46
Apr-97	0.6	0.57	0.46	0.57	0.51	0.47
May-97	0.59	0.56	0.47	0.57	0.51	0.47
Jun-97	0.58	0.56	0.47	0.57	0.51	0.47
Jul-97	0.57	0.56	0.47	0.57	0.51	0.47
Aug-97	0.57	0.56	0.47	0.57	0.51	0.47
Sep-97	0.56	0.56	0.48	0.57	0.51	0.47
Oct-97	0.55	0.56	0.48	0.57	0.5	0.47
Nov-97	0.54	0.56	0.48	0.56	0.5	0.47
Dec-97	0.53	0.56	0.48	0.56	0.5	0.48
Jan-98	0.52	0.55	0.48	0.56	0.5	0.48
Feb-98	0.52	0.55	0.49	0.56	0.5	0.48
Mar-98	0.52	0.55	0.49	0.56	0.49	0.47
Apr-98	0.51	0.55	0.49	0.56	0.49	0.47
May-98	0.51	0.55	0.48	0.55	0.49	0.47
Jun-98	0.51	0.56	0.48	0.55	0.49	0.47
Jul-98	0.51	0.56	0.48	0.55	0.49	0.47
Aug-98	0.51	0.56	0.48	0.55	0.49	0.47
Sep-98	0.52	0.56	0.48	0.55	0.49	0.47
Oct-98	0.52	0.56	0.47	0.55	0.48	0.46
Nov-98	0.51	0.55	0.46	0.55	0.48	0.45
Dec-98	0.51	0.54	0.45	0.55	0.48	0.44
Jan-99	0.51	0.54	0.45	0.55	0.47	0.44
Feb-99	0.52	0.54	0.44	0.55	0.48	0.43
Mar-99	0.53	0.55	0.44	0.56	0.48	0.44
Apr-99	0.53	0.55	0.44	0.57	0.48	0.44
May-99	0.53	0.55	0.44	0.57	0.48	0.44
Jun-99	0.54	0.56	0.44	0.58	0.49	0.44
Jul-99	0.55	0.56	0.44	0.58	0.49	0.44
Aug-99	0.55	0.56	0.44	0.59	0.49	0.44
Sep-99	0.55	0.56	0.44	0.59	0.48	0.44
Oct-99	0.55	0.55	0.44	0.59	0.48	0.44
Nov-99	0.55	0.54	0.43	0.59	0.47	0.43
Dec-99	0.54	0.53	0.43	0.59	0.46	0.43
Jan-00	0.54	0.52	0.43	0.58	0.46	0.42
Feb-00	0.54	0.52	0.43	0.58	0.45	0.42
Mar-00	0.54	0.51	0.43	0.58	0.45	0.42
Apr-00	0.54	0.51	0.43	0.58	0.45	0.42
May-00	0.55	0.52	0.43	0.58	0.46	0.42
Jun-00	0.55	0.52	0.43	0.58	0.46	0.43
Jul-00	0.55	0.52	0.43	0.58	0.46	0.43
Aug-00	0.55	0.53	0.43	0.58	0.46	0.43
Sep-00	0.55	0.53	0.43	0.58	0.46	0.43
Oct-00	0.55	0.53	0.43	0.57	0.45	0.43
Nov-00	0.55	0.53	0.43	0.57	0.45	0.43
1-Dec	0.54	0.53	0.44	0.56	0.45	0.43
1-Jan	0.55	0.53	0.44	0.55	0.45	0.43
1-Feb	0.55	0.53	0.44	0.54	0.46	0.43
1-Mar	0.55	0.53	0.44	0.54	0.46	0.43
1-Apr	0.55	0.53	0.44	0.53	0.46	0.43
1-May	0.55	0.53	0.44	0.53	0.46	0.43
1-Jun	0.55	0.53	0.45	0.53	0.46	0.43
1-Jul	0.55	0.53	0.45	0.53	0.47	0.43
1-Aug	0.54	0.52	0.45	0.52	0.47	0.43
1-Sep	0.54	0.53	0.45	0.52	0.47	0.43
1-Oct	0.54	0.53	0.45	0.52	0.47	0.43
1-Nov	0.54	0.53	0.45	0.52	0.47	0.44
1-Dec	0.54	0.53	0.46	0.52	0.47	0.44
2-Jan	0.54	0.53	0.46	0.52	0.47	0.44
2-Feb	0.54	0.53	0.46	0.53	0.47	0.44
2-Mar	0.54	0.53	0.46	0.53	0.47	0.44
2-Apr	0.54	0.53	0.46	0.53	0.47	0.44
2-May	0.54	0.52	0.46	0.53	0.47	0.44
2-Jun	0.54	0.52	0.46	0.53	0.47	0.44
2-Jul	0.54	0.52	0.46	0.53	0.47	0.44
2-Aug	0.54	0.52	0.46	0.53	0.47	0.44
2-Sep	0.54	0.52	0.46	0.52	0.47	0.44
2-Oct	0.54	0.52	0.46	0.52	0.47	0.44
2-Nov	0.55	0.53	0.47	0.52	0.47	0.44
2-Dec	0.55	0.53	0.47	0.52	0.47	0.44
3-Jan	0.55	0.53	0.47	0.52	0.47	0.44
3-Feb	0.55	0.53	0.47	0.52	0.48	0.44
3-Mar	0.55	0.53	0.47	0.52	0.48	0.44
3-Apr	0.55	0.53	0.47	0.52	0.48	0.44
3-May	0.55	0.54	0.47	0.52	0.49	0.45
3-Jun	0.56	0.54	0.48	0.52	0.49	0.45
3-Jul	0.56	0.55	0.48	0.52	0.5	0.46
3-Aug	0.56	0.55	0.49	0.52	0.51	0.46
3-Sep	0.56	0.56	0.5	0.53	0.52	0.47
3-Oct	0.56	0.57	0.5	0.53	0.52	0.48
3-Nov	0.56	0.58	0.51	0.54	0.53	0.48
3-Dec	0.56	0.58	0.52	0.54	0.53	0.49
4-Jan	0.57	0.58	0.52	0.54	0.54	0.5
4-Feb	0.57	0.58	0.53	0.54	0.54	0.5
4-Mar	0.57	0.59	0.53	0.54	0.54	0.51
4-Apr	0.57	0.59	0.54	0.55	0.55	0.51
4-May	0.57	0.59	0.54	0.55	0.55	0.52
4-Jun	0.57	0.59	0.55	0.55	0.55	0.52
4-Jul	0.57	0.59	0.55	0.55	0.55	0.52
4-Aug	0.57	0.59	0.56	0.56	0.56	0.53
4-Sep	0.58	0.6	0.57	0.56	0.56	0.53
4-Oct	0.58	0.6	0.57	0.56	0.57	0.54
4-Nov	0.58	0.6	0.58	0.57	0.57	0.54
4-Dec	0.59	0.6	0.58	0.57	0.58	0.55
5-Jan	0.59	0.61	0.58	0.57	0.58	0.55
5-Feb	0.59	0.61	0.59	0.57	0.58	0.55
5-Mar	0.58	0.61	0.59	0.57	0.59	0.55
5-Apr	0.58	0.61	0.59	0.57	0.59	0.55
5-May	0.58	0.61	0.59	0.57	0.59	0.56
5-Jun	0.58	0.61	0.6	0.57	0.59	0.56
5-Jul	0.58	0.61	0.6	0.57	0.59	0.56
5-Aug	0.58	0.61	0.6	0.57	0.6	0.56
5-Sep	0.59	0.62	0.6	0.57	0.6	0.57
5-Oct	0.59	0.62	0.61	0.57	0.6	0.57
5-Nov	0.59	0.62	0.61	0.58	0.6	0.57
5-Dec	0.6	0.62	0.61	0.58	0.6	0.57
6-Jan	0.6	0.62	0.61	0.58	0.61	0.57
6-Feb	0.6	0.62	0.61	0.58	0.61	0.57
6-Mar	0.6	0.62	0.61	0.58	0.61	0.57
6-Apr	0.6	0.62	0.61	0.58	0.61	0.57
6-May	0.59	0.62	0.61	0.58	0.6	0.57
6-Jun	0.59	0.62	0.61	0.58	0.6	0.57
6-Jul	0.59	0.62	0.61	0.58	0.6	0.57
6-Aug	0.6	0.62	0.61	0.58	0.61	0.57
6-Sep	0.6	0.62	0.61	0.58	0.61	0.57
6-Oct	0.6	0.62	0.61	0.58	0.61	0.57
6-Nov	0.6	0.62	0.61	0.58	0.61	0.58
6-Dec	0.6	0.63	0.62	0.59	0.61	0.58
7-Jan	0.61	0.63	0.62	0.6	0.62	0.59
7-Feb	0.61	0.64	0.63	0.6	0.62	0.59
7-Mar	0.62	0.64	0.63	0.61	0.62	0.59
7-Apr	0.63	0.65	0.63	0.61	0.63	0.6
7-May	0.63	0.66	0.64	0.62	0.63	0.6
7-Jun	0.65	0.67	0.65	0.63	0.65	0.61
7-Jul	0.66	0.68	0.66	0.64	0.66	0.62
7-Aug	0.67	0.69	0.67	0.65	0.67	0.63
7-Sep	0.68	0.7	0.67	0.66	0.68	0.64
7-Oct	0.69	0.71	0.68	0.67	0.69	0.65
7-Nov	0.69	0.71	0.68	0.67	0.69	0.65
7-Dec	0.7	0.72	0.68	0.67	0.7	0.65
8-Jan	0.71	0.72	0.69	0.68	0.7	0.66
8-Feb	0.72	0.73	0.69	0.68	0.7	0.66
8-Mar	0.73	0.73	0.7	0.69	0.71	0.67
8-Apr	0.74	0.74	0.7	0.69	0.72	0.68
8-May	0.75	0.74	0.71	0.7	0.73	0.69
8-Jun	0.78	0.75	0.72	0.72	0.74	0.7
8-Jul	0.81	0.76	0.73	0.73	0.75	0.71
8-Aug	0.83	0.77	0.74	0.74	0.76	0.72
8-Sep	0.84	0.77	0.74	0.75	0.77	0.73
8-Oct	0.85	0.78	0.75	0.77	0.78	0.74
8-Nov	0.85	0.78	0.76	0.78	0.78	0.74
8-Dec	0.84	0.78	0.76	0.79	0.79	0.74
9-Jan	0.84	0.78	0.76	0.79	0.79	0.75
9-Feb	0.84	0.78	0.76	0.79	0.79	0.75
9-Mar	0.83	0.78	0.76	0.79	0.79	0.75
9-Apr	0.83	0.78	0.77	0.79	0.79	0.74
9-May	0.83	0.78	0.77	0.79	0.79	0.75
9-Jun	0.82	0.78	0.77	0.79	0.79	0.75
9-Jul	0.82	0.78	0.77	0.79	0.79	0.75
9-Aug	0.82	0.78	0.77	0.79	0.79	0.75
9-Sep	0.82	0.77	0.77	0.8	0.79	0.75

Return to Figure 14

Appendix Figure A1. Tracking a Christiano-Fitzgerald band-pass filter of overall PCE inflation: January 1980 to September 2009

Sampling interval	Overall PCE	Excluding food & energy	Dallas Fed trimmed mean	Michigan median 12-month expectations
1	2.17	1.4	0.91	0.79
2	1.74	1.06	0.79	0.77
3	1.44	0.92	0.75	0.77
4	1.22	0.86	0.74	0.77
5	1.07	0.83	0.74	0.77
6	0.94	0.81	0.75	0.77
7	0.85	0.81	0.76	0.78
8	0.79	0.82	0.78	0.79
9	0.74	0.84	0.8	0.8
10	0.7	0.85	0.81	0.82
11	0.69	0.87	0.83	0.83
12	0.69	0.89	0.85	0.85
13	0.7	0.91	0.87	0.86
14	0.7	0.94	0.89	0.88
15	0.7	0.96	0.9	0.89
16	0.72	0.98	0.92	0.9
17	0.74	1.01	0.94	0.91
18	0.77	1.03	0.95	0.93
19	0.79	1.05	0.97	0.94
20	0.82	1.08	0.98	0.95
21	0.85	1.1	1	0.96
22	0.88	1.12	1.01	0.97
23	0.91	1.14	1.02	0.98
24	0.94	1.16	1.03	0.99

Return to Figure A1

Appendix Figure A2. Tracking a Hodrick-Prescott filter of overall PCE inflation: January 1980 to September 2009

Sampling interval	Overall PCE	Excluding food & energy	Dallas Fed trimmed mean	Michigan median 12-month expectations
1	2.21	1.33	0.83	0.71
2	1.79	0.98	0.67	0.68
3	1.5	0.81	0.62	0.67
4	1.29	0.73	0.59	0.66
5	1.14	0.69	0.58	0.65
6	1.03	0.66	0.57	0.64
7	0.94	0.65	0.57	0.64
8	0.87	0.65	0.58	0.64
9	0.82	0.66	0.58	0.64
10	0.78	0.67	0.59	0.65
11	0.76	0.68	0.6	0.65
12	0.74	0.7	0.61	0.66
13	0.72	0.71	0.61	0.66
14	0.7	0.73	0.62	0.67
15	0.69	0.75	0.63	0.67
16	0.68	0.77	0.64	0.68
17	0.68	0.78	0.65	0.69
18	0.69	0.8	0.66	0.69
19	0.7	0.82	0.67	0.7
20	0.71	0.84	0.68	0.7
21	0.72	0.86	0.68	0.71
22	0.74	0.88	0.69	0.72
23	0.75	0.9	0.7	0.73
24	0.77	0.92	0.71	0.73

Return to Figure A2

Appendix figure A3. Measures of trend PCE inflation

Date	Baxter-King	Christiano-Fitzgerald	Hodrick-Prescott	36-month moving average	Twelve-month change
Jan-80	9.96	10.07	9.09	9.04	9.95
Feb-80	10.09	10.08	9.07	9.08	10.5
Mar-80	10.2	10.08	9.04	9.09	10.94
Apr-80	9.88	10.05	8.99	8.97	10.43
May-80	9.67	10	8.94	8.96	10.18
Jun-80	9.34	9.93	8.87	8.91	9.98
Jul-80	9.27	9.83	8.79	8.85	10
Aug-80	9.22	9.71	8.7	8.78	10.06
Sep-80	9.16	9.57	8.6	8.6	10.11
Oct-80	8.93	9.4	8.49	8.27	10.09
Nov-80	8.8	9.22	8.37	8.13	10.21
Dec-80	8.58	9.01	8.25	8.09	10.02
Jan-81	8.53	8.78	8.11	8.04	9.94
Feb-81	8.19	8.54	7.97	7.89	9.87
Mar-81	7.74	8.28	7.82	7.69	9.35
Apr-81	7.14	8.01	7.66	7.6	9.26
May-81	7.16	7.73	7.5	7.48	8.93
Jun-81	7.11	7.44	7.34	7.25	8.7
Jul-81	7.14	7.15	7.17	7.07	8.53
Aug-81	6.92	6.86	7.01	6.77	8.32
Sep-81	6.66	6.57	6.84	6.41	8
Oct-81	6.45	6.28	6.68	6.39	7.66
Nov-81	6.24	6	6.51	6.22	7.38
Dec-81	5.89	5.73	6.35	6.14	7.04
Jan-82	5.87	5.48	6.18	6.07	6.66
Feb-82	5.45	5.23	6.03	5.94	5.96
Mar-82	5.04	5.01	5.87	5.75	5.51
Apr-82	4.88	4.8	5.72	5.54	5.13
May-82	4.93	4.61	5.57	5.32	5.27
Jun-82	4.92	4.44	5.43	5.12	5.6
Jul-82	4.97	4.3	5.29	4.94	5.59
Aug-82	4.82	4.17	5.15	4.83	5.28
Sep-82	4.69	4.06	5.02	4.71	4.96
Oct-82	4.56	3.98	4.9	4.69	5.07
Nov-82	4.36	3.91	4.77	4.59	4.84
Dec-82	4.11	3.86	4.66	4.51	4.7
Jan-83	4.24	3.82	4.55	4.43	4.6
Feb-83	4.2	3.8	4.44	4.33	4.48
Mar-83	4.2	3.8	4.34	4.17	4.36
Apr-83	4.33	3.8	4.24	4.1	4.77
May-83	4.33	3.81	4.14	3.97	4.46
Jun-83	4.16	3.83	4.05	3.97	4.12
Jul-83	4.03	3.85	3.97	3.92	4.09
Aug-83	3.87	3.87	3.89	3.95	4.21
Sep-83	3.78	3.89	3.81	3.99	4.28
Oct-83	3.72	3.91	3.74	4.02	3.89
Nov-83	3.52	3.93	3.66	3.9	3.73
Dec-83	3.49	3.93	3.6	3.73	3.62
Jan-84	3.69	3.93	3.53	3.58	3.57
Feb-84	3.71	3.92	3.47	3.58	4.06
Mar-84	3.72	3.9	3.42	3.55	4.25
Apr-84	3.74	3.87	3.36	3.44	4.18
May-84	3.56	3.82	3.31	3.45	4.02
Jun-84	3.54	3.77	3.26	3.51	3.82
Jul-84	3.48	3.71	3.21	3.49	3.62
Aug-84	3.35	3.64	3.17	3.44	3.5
Sep-84	3.2	3.55	3.13	3.33	3.29
Oct-84	3.17	3.46	3.09	3.13	3.35
Nov-84	3.22	3.37	3.06	3.12	3.35
Dec-84	3.34	3.27	3.02	3.15	3.58
Jan-85	3.54	3.17	2.99	2.99	3.58
Feb-85	3.34	3.06	2.97	2.91	3.32
Mar-85	2.95	2.96	2.94	2.92	3.35
Apr-85	2.69	2.86	2.92	2.93	3.13
May-85	2.64	2.77	2.91	2.96	3.21
Jun-85	2.78	2.68	2.89	3.01	3.24
Jul-85	2.73	2.6	2.88	3.08	3.05
Aug-85	2.68	2.53	2.87	2.98	3.03
Sep-85	2.68	2.47	2.87	2.95	3.08
Oct-85	2.72	2.43	2.87	2.93	3.07
Nov-85	2.74	2.4	2.87	2.96	3.26
Dec-85	2.77	2.38	2.88	3.03	3.32
Jan-86	2.95	2.37	2.89	3.01	3.33
Feb-86	2.83	2.38	2.9	3.05	2.94
Mar-86	2.71	2.41	2.92	3.12	2.39
Apr-86	2.7	2.45	2.94	3.14	2.09
May-86	2.82	2.5	2.97	3.15	2.14
Jun-86	2.95	2.56	3.01	3.13	2.38
Jul-86	2.91	2.64	3.04	3.12	2.32
Aug-86	3.05	2.73	3.08	3.05	2.21
Sep-86	3.12	2.82	3.12	3.04	2.39
Oct-86	3.13	2.92	3.17	3.14	2.36
Nov-86	3.13	3.02	3.22	3.17	2.25
Dec-86	3.07	3.13	3.26	3.24	2.12
Jan-87	3.2	3.24	3.31	3.35	2.32
Feb-87	3.03	3.36	3.36	3.35	2.69
Mar-87	3.15	3.47	3.41	3.45	3.12
Apr-87	3.47	3.57	3.46	3.47	3.56
May-87	3.64	3.67	3.51	3.43	3.53
Jun-87	3.76	3.77	3.56	3.43	3.48
Jul-87	3.76	3.86	3.61	3.46	3.67
Aug-87	3.88	3.94	3.66	3.58	3.91
Sep-87	3.99	4.02	3.7	3.76	3.88
Oct-87	3.95	4.08	3.75	4.03	3.98
Nov-87	3.94	4.14	3.79	4.05	3.94
Dec-87	3.99	4.19	3.84	3.97	3.93
Jan-88	4.18	4.23	3.88	4.01	3.72
Feb-88	4	4.26	3.92	3.95	3.51
Mar-88	4.04	4.28	3.96	3.9	3.62
Apr-88	4.26	4.3	4	3.97	3.78
May-88	4.23	4.31	4.03	3.97	3.84
Jun-88	4.26	4.31	4.06	3.99	3.87
Jul-88	4.19	4.31	4.09	4.04	4.08
Aug-88	4.02	4.3	4.12	4.07	3.94
Sep-88	3.96	4.29	4.14	4.13	4.07
Oct-88	3.95	4.28	4.17	4.13	4.07
Nov-88	3.9	4.27	4.18	4.14	4.1
Dec-88	3.97	4.26	4.2	4.17	4.23
Jan-89	4.27	4.25	4.21	4.15	4.34
Feb-89	4.25	4.24	4.22	4.22	4.53
Mar-89	4.37	4.23	4.23	4.31	4.56
Apr-89	4.41	4.22	4.23	4.4	4.73
May-89	4.26	4.22	4.23	4.38	4.79
Jun-89	4.3	4.21	4.23	4.36	4.56
Jul-89	4.22	4.21	4.23	4.36	4.29
Aug-89	4.24	4.21	4.22	4.33	4
Sep-89	4.43	4.22	4.22	4.23	3.75
Oct-89	4.52	4.22	4.2	4.14	3.85
Nov-89	4.41	4.23	4.19	4.19	3.85
Dec-89	4.39	4.23	4.18	4.11	3.82
Jan-90	4.54	4.23	4.16	4.01	4.05
Feb-90	4.27	4.23	4.13	4	4.17
Mar-90	4.12	4.23	4.11	3.96	4.23
Apr-90	4	4.23	4.08	3.93	3.86
May-90	3.9	4.22	4.04	3.94	3.8
Jun-90	3.87	4.2	4.01	3.93	4.06
Jul-90	3.82	4.18	3.96	3.82	4.07
Aug-90	3.93	4.15	3.92	3.8	4.72
Sep-90	4.08	4.12	3.87	3.76	5.1
Oct-90	4.05	4.08	3.82	3.63	5.28
Nov-90	3.89	4.03	3.76	3.56	5.19
Dec-90	3.91	3.97	3.71	3.56	5.02
Jan-91	3.94	3.91	3.65	3.6	4.68
Feb-91	3.64	3.84	3.59	3.64	4.3
Mar-91	3.53	3.76	3.53	3.62	3.92
Apr-91	3.48	3.68	3.47	3.6	3.82
May-91	3.47	3.59	3.41	3.57	3.96
Jun-91	3.37	3.5	3.35	3.52	3.7
Jul-91	3.31	3.4	3.29	3.33	3.66
Aug-91	3.28	3.3	3.23	3.21	3.27
Sep-91	3.07	3.19	3.17	3.12	3.03
Oct-91	2.9	3.09	3.11	3.11	2.66
Nov-91	2.73	2.99	3.05	3.1	2.76
Dec-91	2.74	2.88	3	2.95	2.94
Jan-92	2.75	2.78	2.94	2.92	2.72
Feb-92	2.63	2.69	2.89	2.75	2.93
Mar-92	2.66	2.59	2.83	2.58	3.14
Apr-92	2.74	2.51	2.78	2.49	3.22
May-92	2.75	2.42	2.73	2.5	2.92
Jun-92	2.56	2.35	2.68	2.47	2.92
Jul-92	2.57	2.28	2.63	2.35	3.07
Aug-92	2.5	2.22	2.58	2.4	2.94
Sep-92	2.42	2.16	2.54	2.47	2.73
Oct-92	2.42	2.12	2.5	2.44	2.85
Nov-92	2.38	2.08	2.45	2.34	2.76
Dec-92	2.28	2.05	2.42	2.37	2.6
Jan-93	2.18	2.02	2.38	2.43	2.59
Feb-93	2.17	2	2.35	2.43	2.41
Mar-93	2.17	1.99	2.31	2.35	2.31
Apr-93	2.1	1.99	2.29	2.33	2.28
May-93	2.06	1.99	2.26	2.31	2.42
Jun-93	2.05	1.99	2.24	2.24	2.23
Jul-93	2.17	2	2.21	2.25	2.02
Aug-93	2.13	2.02	2.2	2.21	2.03
Sep-93	2.11	2.03	2.18	2.19	1.97
Oct-93	2.17	2.05	2.16	2.19	1.95
Nov-93	2.08	2.07	2.15	2.19	1.98
Dec-93	2.02	2.08	2.14	2.16	1.88
Jan-94	2.06	2.1	2.13	2.09	1.74
Feb-94	2.1	2.12	2.12	2.12	1.86
Mar-94	2.14	2.14	2.12	2.09	1.95
Apr-94	2.14	2.16	2.11	2.07	1.81
May-94	2.12	2.17	2.11	2.02	1.68
Jun-94	2.07	2.19	2.1	2.04	1.95
Jul-94	2.15	2.2	2.1	2.05	2.19
Aug-94	2.17	2.21	2.1	2.07	2.31
Sep-94	2.1	2.22	2.09	2.11	2.34
Oct-94	2.18	2.22	2.09	2.13	2.2
Nov-94	2.05	2.23	2.08	2.09	2.2
Dec-94	2.04	2.23	2.08	2.09	2.25
Jan-95	2.16	2.24	2.07	2.13	2.41
Feb-95	2.2	2.24	2.06	2.11	2.37
Mar-95	2.22	2.24	2.06	2.18	2.3
Apr-95	2.25	2.24	2.05	2.18	2.46
May-95	2.26	2.24	2.04	2.18	2.47
Jun-95	2.18	2.23	2.03	2.21	2.3
Jul-95	2.17	2.23	2.02	2.25	2.06
Aug-95	2.07	2.22	2.01	2.25	2.02
Sep-95	2.05	2.22	2	2.2	1.97
Oct-95	2.17	2.21	1.99	2.2	2.06
Nov-95	2.13	2.2	1.98	2.14	1.87
Dec-95	2.15	2.19	1.96	2.09	1.99
Jan-96	2.2	2.17	1.95	1.99	2
Feb-96	2.18	2.15	1.93	1.93	1.97
Mar-96	2.18	2.13	1.92	1.97	2.08
Apr-96	2.14	2.11	1.9	1.97	2.11
May-96	1.97	2.08	1.88	1.92	2.12
Jun-96	1.93	2.05	1.86	1.89	2.03
Jul-96	1.96	2.02	1.84	1.83	2.12
Aug-96	1.91	1.98	1.81	1.75	2.02
Sep-96	1.96	1.94	1.79	1.7	2.22
Oct-96	2	1.9	1.77	1.66	2.27
Nov-96	1.88	1.85	1.74	1.67	2.47
Dec-96	1.86	1.79	1.71	1.61	2.4
Jan-97	1.8	1.74	1.69	1.65	2.33
Feb-97	1.68	1.68	1.66	1.62	2.39
Mar-97	1.59	1.62	1.64	1.58	2.22
Apr-97	1.52	1.55	1.61	1.58	2.03
May-97	1.42	1.49	1.59	1.59	1.82
Jun-97	1.35	1.43	1.57	1.56	1.94
Jul-97	1.44	1.37	1.55	1.55	1.78
Aug-97	1.41	1.31	1.53	1.49	1.76
Sep-97	1.37	1.25	1.52	1.42	1.73
Oct-97	1.33	1.2	1.51	1.48	1.58
Nov-97	1.18	1.15	1.5	1.45	1.42
Dec-97	1.14	1.11	1.49	1.45	1.28
Jan-98	1.18	1.08	1.49	1.46	1.17
Feb-98	1.08	1.06	1.49	1.48	0.89
Mar-98	1.02	1.04	1.49	1.5	0.81
Apr-98	1.22	1.04	1.5	1.45	0.86
May-98	1.2	1.04	1.51	1.41	1.05
Jun-98	1.18	1.06	1.52	1.45	0.86
Jul-98	1.31	1.08	1.53	1.5	1.04
Aug-98	1.34	1.12	1.55	1.54	1.09
Sep-98	1.4	1.17	1.57	1.64	0.8
Oct-98	1.42	1.22	1.59	1.57	0.89
Nov-98	1.35	1.29	1.61	1.61	0.88
Dec-98	1.48	1.37	1.64	1.67	1.01
Jan-99	1.64	1.45	1.66	1.72	1.15
Feb-99	1.72	1.54	1.69	1.68	1.19
Mar-99	1.97	1.63	1.71	1.74	1.24
Apr-99	2	1.73	1.74	1.74	1.57
May-99	1.86	1.83	1.76	1.78	1.46
Jun-99	1.93	1.93	1.79	1.82	1.56
Jul-99	2.12	2.02	1.81	1.96	1.58
Aug-99	1.98	2.12	1.83	2.02	1.6
1-Sep	2.14	2.21	1.85	2.01	1.97
1-Oct	2.18	2.29	1.87	2.02	1.87
1-Nov	2.13	2.36	1.88	2.06	1.93
1-Dec	2.22	2.43	1.89	2.14	2.06
1-Jan	2.39	2.48	1.9	2.04	2.18
1-Feb	2.37	2.52	1.91	1.98	2.53
1-Mar	2.4	2.55	1.91	1.89	2.88
1-Apr	2.32	2.56	1.91	1.93	2.29
1-May	2.27	2.56	1.91	1.9	2.31
1-Jun	2.38	2.55	1.91	1.83	2.6
1-Jul	2.32	2.52	1.9	1.79	2.55
1-Aug	2.13	2.48	1.9	1.85	2.36
1-Sep	2	2.43	1.89	1.93	2.46
1-Oct	1.95	2.36	1.88	1.91	2.46
1-Nov	1.85	2.29	1.86	1.92	2.52
1-Dec	1.77	2.2	1.85	1.95	2.4
1-Jan	1.77	2.11	1.84	1.93	2.54
1-Feb	1.62	2.01	1.82	1.94	2.34
1-Mar	1.57	1.91	1.81	1.89	1.92
1-Apr	1.61	1.8	1.8	1.91	2.21
1-May	1.71	1.7	1.79	1.92	2.42
1-Jun	1.71	1.6	1.77	1.86	2.27
1-Jul	1.61	1.5	1.77	1.84	1.99
1-Aug	1.6	1.42	1.76	1.87	2
1-Sep	1.62	1.33	1.76	1.81	1.24
1-Oct	1.67	1.26	1.76	1.78	1.46
1-Nov	1.56	1.2	1.76	1.72	1.25
1-Dec	1.54	1.16	1.77	1.65	1.03
2-Jan	1.64	1.13	1.78	1.67	0.67
2-Feb	1.64	1.11	1.79	1.79	0.69
2-Mar	1.71	1.11	1.81	1.75	0.98
2-Apr	1.67	1.12	1.82	1.7	1.23
2-May	1.44	1.15	1.84	1.69	1.03
2-Jun	1.38	1.2	1.86	1.73	0.98
2-Jul	1.45	1.25	1.88	1.7	1.26
2-Aug	1.63	1.33	1.91	1.74	1.47
2-Sep	1.79	1.41	1.93	1.8	1.97
2-Oct	1.93	1.51	1.96	1.8	1.81
2-Nov	1.8	1.61	1.98	1.83	1.98
2-Dec	1.94	1.72	2.01	1.88	2.16
3-Jan	2.2	1.84	2.04	1.96	2.32
3-Feb	2.3	1.96	2.07	1.99	2.57
3-Mar	2.27	2.08	2.1	2.16	2.52
3-Apr	2.11	2.2	2.14	2.17	1.91
3-May	2.09	2.32	2.17	2.31	1.7
3-Jun	2.28	2.43	2.21	2.36	1.69
3-Jul	2.33	2.54	2.24	2.37	1.75
3-Aug	2.28	2.64	2.28	2.41	1.91
3-Sep	2.27	2.73	2.32	2.42	2.05
3-Oct	2.3	2.8	2.35	2.38	1.84
3-Nov	2.41	2.87	2.39	2.34	1.84
3-Dec	2.42	2.92	2.43	2.32	2
4-Jan	2.48	2.96	2.46	2.39	2.13
4-Feb	2.46	2.99	2.5	2.48	1.96
4-Mar	2.4	3.01	2.53	2.78	1.91
4-Apr	2.43	3.01	2.57	2.78	2.25
4-May	2.54	3	2.6	2.66	2.75
4-Jun	2.62	2.98	2.63	2.62	2.98
4-Jul	2.72	2.96	2.66	2.68	2.85
4-Aug	2.78	2.92	2.69	2.56	2.59
4-Sep	3.14	2.88	2.71	2.52	2.45
4-Oct	3.14	2.83	2.73	2.71	2.87
4-Nov	3.02	2.78	2.76	2.84	3.12
4-Dec	2.89	2.73	2.78	2.87	2.93
5-Jan	3	2.68	2.8	2.88	2.67
5-Feb	2.88	2.64	2.81	2.9	2.71
5-Mar	2.84	2.59	2.83	2.72	2.84
5-Apr	2.93	2.56	2.84	2.65	2.98
5-May	2.88	2.53	2.85	2.66	2.58
5-Jun	2.82	2.5	2.86	2.71	2.3
5-Jul	2.9	2.49	2.86	2.67	2.57
5-Aug	3.01	2.48	2.86	2.71	2.95
5-Sep	3.03	2.49	2.86	2.78	3.84
5-Oct	2.64	2.5	2.86	2.8	3.63
5-Nov	2.41	2.53	2.86	2.77	3.02
5-Dec	2.47	2.56	2.85	2.71	2.93
6-Jan	2.68	2.6	2.84	2.72	3.25
6-Feb	2.7	2.65	2.83	2.71	2.99
6-Mar	2.76	2.71	2.82	2.78	2.82
6-Apr	2.78	2.77	2.81	2.75	2.91
6-May	2.73	2.83	2.8	2.81	3.2
6-Jun	2.81	2.89	2.78	2.89	3.33
6-Jul	2.89	2.96	2.77	2.95	3.22
6-Aug	2.74	3.02	2.75	2.92	3.15
6-Sep	2.57	3.08	2.73	2.93	1.87
6-Oct	2.21	3.13	2.72	2.94	1.45
6-Nov	2.45	3.17	2.7	3.09	1.84
6-Dec	2.77	3.2	2.68	3.27	2.25
7-Jan	2.9	3.22	2.66	3.31	2.11
7-Feb	2.82	3.23	2.63	3.13	2.43
7-Mar	2.97	3.23	2.61	2.81	2.67
7-Apr	3.01	3.21	2.58	2.57	2.5
7-May	3.03	3.18	2.55	2.26	2.54
7-Jun	3.18	3.13	2.52	2.1	2.51
7-Jul	3.34	3.07	2.48	2	2.36
7-Aug	3.14	2.99	2.44	2.09	2.04
7-Sep	3.1	2.9	2.39	2.01	2.64
7-Oct	2.93	2.8	2.35	1.93	3.15
7-Nov	2.55	2.68	2.3	1.89	3.56
7-Dec	2.2	2.55	2.24	2.01	3.48
8-Jan	2.08	2.42	2.19	1.93	3.49
8-Feb	2.05	2.28	2.13	1.9	3.35
8-Mar	1.86	2.13	2.07	2.03	3.31
8-Apr	1.75	1.99	2	2.21	3.4
8-May	1.71	1.84	1.94	2.23	3.52
8-Jun	1.86	1.69	1.88	2.12	3.98
8-Jul	1.8	1.55	1.81	2.11	4.34
8-Aug	1.72	1.42	1.75	2.01	4.19
8-Sep	1.8	1.29	1.7	1.94	3.92
8-Oct	1.62	1.18	1.65	1.87	3.12
8-Nov	1.42	1.08	1.6	1.76	1.37
8-Dec	1.36	0.99	1.57	1.65	0.56
9-Jan	1.48	0.92	1.54	1.67	0.42
9-Feb	1.41	0.86	1.52	1.7	0.49
9-Mar	1.3	0.82	1.51	1.61	0.05
9-Apr	1.21	0.8	1.5	1.59	-0.1
9-May	1.04	0.79	1.5	1.43	-0.39
9-Jun	0.87	0.81	1.51	1.41	-0.47
9-Jul	0.6	0.84	1.51	1.44	-0.92
9-Aug	0.49	0.88	1.53	1.49	-0.53
9-Sep	0.55	0.94	1.54	1.51	-0.48
9-Oct	0.64	1.02	1.56	1.52	0.36
9-Nov	0.89	1.11	1.58	1.44	1.76
9-Dec	1.52	1.2	1.61	1.19	2.32
10-Jan	1.96	1.31	1.64	1.14	2.41
10-Feb	2.03	1.42	1.67	1.25	2.2
10-Mar	2.09	1.54	1.7	1.27	2.45
10-Apr	2.26	1.66	1.74		2.32
10-May	2.24	1.78	1.78		2.14
10-Jun	2.1	1.9	1.83		1.45
10-Jul	2.13	2.01	1.88		1.58
10-Aug	2.19	2.12	1.93		1.44
10-Sep					1.39
10-Oct					1.28
10-Nov					1.17
10-Dec					1.36
11-Jan					1.48
11-Feb					1.79
11-Mar					2.03
11-Apr					2.33
11-May					2.56
11-Jun					2.6
11-Jul					2.75
11-Aug					2.85
11-Sep					2.9

Return to Figure A3

The Usefulness of Core PCE Inflation Measures

Table 1. Description of PCE Price Inflation Measures and Their Average Inflation Rates

Figure 1a. Tracking centered 36-month moving average of overall PCE inflation: January 1980 to September 2009

Figure 1b. Tracking centered 36-month moving average of overall PCE inflation: March 1991 to September 2009

Figure 2a. Tracking Baxter-King band-pass filter of overall PCE inflation: January 1980 to September 2009

Figure 2b. Tracking Baxter-King band-pass filter of overall PCE inflation: March 1991 to September 2009

Figure 3a. Predicting inflation in the next twelve months: January 1980 to September 2009

Figure 3b. Predicting inflation in the next twelve months: March 1991 to September 2009

Figure 4a. Predicting inflation 12-to-24 months ahead: January 1980 to September 2009

Figure 4b. Predicting inflation 12-to-24 months ahead: March 1991 to September 2009

Figure 5a. Predicting inflation in next 12 months using Phillips curve: January 1985 to September 2009

Figure 5b. Predicting inflation in next 12 months using Phillips curve: March 1991 to September 2009

Figure 6. Average performance of exclusion methods

Figure 7. Average performance of trim methods and inflation expectations

Figure 8. Average performance of variance and regression-weighted methods

Figure 9. Average performance of smoothing methods

Figure 10. Average performance of selected core inflation measures

Figure 11. Average performance of selected core inflation measures at 3-month sampling interval: Geometric average error over 5 benchmarks using rolling 10-year windows

Figure 12. Average performance of selected core inflation measures at 6-month sampling interval: Geometric average error over 5 benchmarks using rolling 10-year windows

Figure 13. Average performance of selected core inflation measures at 12-month sampling interval: Geometric average error over 5 benchmarks using rolling 10-year windows

Figure 14. Average performance of selected core inflation measures at each measure's best sampling interval: Geometric average error over 5 benchmarks using rolling 10-year windows

Appendix Figure A1. Tracking a Christiano-Fitzgerald band-pass filter of overall PCE inflation: January 1980 to September 2009

Appendix Figure A2. Tracking a Hodrick-Prescott filter of overall PCE inflation: January 1980 to September 2009

Appendix figure A3. Measures of trend PCE inflation