FRB: Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data

Figure 1: Lead-Lag Correlations for Output and Interest Rates

x axis Quarterly Lags	Black line Nominal Rate	Green line Real Rate
-8	0.2931	0.2499
-7	0.4014	0.2014
-6	0.4907	0.1493
-5	0.5659	0.1094
-4	0.6287	0.0844
-3	0.6673	0.0595
-2	0.6565	0.0101
-1	0.5701	-0.0794
0	0.3996	-0.2016
1	0.1651	-0.3253
2	-0.0896	-0.4119
3	-0.3154	-0.4364
4	-0.4795	-0.3997
5	-0.5752	-0.324
6	-0.616	-0.2367
7	-0.62	-0.1542
8	-0.597	-0.0781

Return to Figure 1

Figure 2: Cyclical Behavior of Output and Interest Rates

Date	Top Panel Blue Line (r )	Top Panel Black Dashed (y)	Bottom Panel Red Line (i)	Bottom Panel Black Dashed (y)
1963-01-01	-0.2445	-1.1086	-0.1412	-1.1086
1963-04-01	-0.2447	-1.1439	-0.059	-1.1439
1963-07-01	-0.1241	-0.8103	0.0124	-0.8103
1963-10-01	0.023	-0.3999	0.0184	-0.3999
1964-01-01	0.1386	-0.2069	-0.0356	-0.2069
1964-04-01	0.244	-0.3608	-0.0854	-0.3608
1964-07-01	0.4083	-0.736	-0.0778	-0.736
1964-10-01	0.6102	-1.0123	-0.0342	-1.0123
1965-01-01	0.6834	-0.8936	-0.0293	-0.8936
1965-04-01	0.4723	-0.3118	-0.0896	-0.3118
1965-07-01	0.0044	0.5856	-0.1425	0.5856
1965-10-01	-0.4792	1.5215	-0.0509	1.5215
1966-01-01	-0.675	2.1956	0.2304	2.1956
1966-04-01	-0.4499	2.3736	0.5433	2.3736
1966-07-01	0.0315	2.032	0.609	2.032
1966-10-01	0.4248	1.3476	0.2662	1.3476
1967-01-01	0.422	0.6477	-0.3803	0.6477
1967-04-01	-0.0029	0.1887	-1.0141	0.1887
1967-07-01	-0.6157	0.0811	-1.3227	0.0811
1967-10-01	-1.062	0.3055	-1.2002	0.3055
1968-01-01	-1.1548	0.77	-0.7842	0.77
1968-04-01	-0.9256	1.2511	-0.3194	1.2511
1968-07-01	-0.5722	1.6337	0.0233	1.6337
1968-10-01	-0.252	1.8827	0.3222	1.8827
1969-01-01	0.1169	1.9725	0.824	1.9725
1969-04-01	0.6487	1.8132	1.6242	1.8132
1969-07-01	1.2927	1.3426	2.4636	1.3426
1969-10-01	1.8645	0.599	2.8881	0.599
1970-01-01	2.0801	-0.3007	2.5592	-0.3007
1970-04-01	1.7835	-1.1539	1.5157	-1.1539
1970-07-01	1.0895	-1.6985	0.1619	-1.6985
1970-10-01	0.3002	-1.8206	-0.9973	-1.8206
1971-01-01	-0.2572	-1.6643	-1.5998	-1.6643
1971-04-01	-0.45	-1.4877	-1.7036	-1.4877
1971-07-01	-0.4235	-1.4541	-1.7231	-1.4541
1971-10-01	-0.4487	-1.4356	-1.957	-1.4356
1972-01-01	-0.6492	-1.1389	-2.3093	-1.1389
1972-04-01	-0.8751	-0.3675	-2.4549	-0.3675
1972-07-01	-0.8968	0.7908	-2.1603	0.7908
1972-10-01	-0.6973	2.0069	-1.3958	2.0069
1973-01-01	-0.417	2.9193	-0.2823	2.9193
1973-04-01	-0.2072	3.3039	0.9595	3.3039
1973-07-01	-0.1314	3.1681	2.1146	3.1681
1973-10-01	-0.0478	2.6253	3.0449	2.6253
1974-01-01	0.16	1.7837	3.6327	1.7837
1974-04-01	0.4979	0.6068	3.7248	0.6068
1974-07-01	0.7217	-0.8633	3.1454	-0.8633
1974-10-01	0.5584	-2.3248	1.9126	-2.3248
1975-01-01	0.0651	-3.2882	0.3905	-3.2882
1975-04-01	-0.4024	-3.4598	-0.8845	-3.4598
1975-07-01	-0.4969	-2.9774	-1.5792	-2.9774
1975-10-01	-0.1299	-2.1869	-1.7206	-2.1869
1976-01-01	0.4547	-1.4913	-1.6107	-1.4913
1976-04-01	0.7558	-1.1171	-1.5759	-1.1171
1976-07-01	0.4556	-1.0134	-1.7423	-1.0134
1976-10-01	-0.3247	-0.9621	-2.0412	-0.9621
1977-01-01	-1.1044	-0.8164	-2.2629	-0.8164
1977-04-01	-1.4353	-0.5143	-2.1953	-0.5143
1977-07-01	-1.2078	-0.0523	-1.7939	-0.0523
1977-10-01	-0.6209	0.5015	-1.2725	0.5015
1978-01-01	-0.2195	1.0488	-0.9557	1.0488
1978-04-01	-0.3368	1.5757	-0.8918	1.5757
1978-07-01	-0.7829	2.0977	-0.9314	2.0977
1978-10-01	-1.271	2.5351	-0.7726	2.5351
1979-01-01	-1.6189	2.8061	-0.1794	2.8061
1979-04-01	-1.7665	2.7549	0.6462	2.7549
1979-07-01	-1.8973	2.2488	1.2571	2.2488
1979-10-01	-2.1222	1.3572	1.3824	1.3572
1980-01-01	-2.3331	0.3465	1.1176	0.3465
1980-04-01	-2.1751	-0.4238	0.8821	-0.4238
1980-07-01	-1.4824	-0.6751	1.1069	-0.6751
1980-10-01	-0.2931	-0.3612	1.9198	-0.3612
1981-01-01	1.1494	0.2633	3.0359	0.2633
1981-04-01	2.4933	0.6954	3.8966	0.6954
1981-07-01	3.3794	0.4059	3.9934	0.4059
1981-10-01	3.6197	-0.7039	3.2036	-0.7039
1982-01-01	3.3439	-2.2633	1.851	-2.2633
1982-04-01	2.7685	-3.6774	0.4155	-3.6774
1982-07-01	2.0513	-4.4696	-0.7493	-4.4696
1982-10-01	1.2923	-4.4985	-1.551	-4.4985
1983-01-01	0.5606	-3.8764	-2.0359	-3.8764
1983-04-01	-0.0702	-2.8379	-2.1457	-2.8379
1983-07-01	-0.4636	-1.5945	-1.6976	-1.5945
1983-10-01	-0.3921	-0.3902	-0.7037	-0.3902
1984-01-01	0.0382	0.5218	0.3427	0.5218
1984-04-01	0.4744	1.0007	0.9443	1.0007
1984-07-01	0.6649	1.1284	0.908	1.1284
1984-10-01	0.5509	1.0669	0.4269	1.0669
1985-01-01	0.2152	0.9987	-0.0465	0.9987
1985-04-01	-0.0878	1.0441	-0.2544	1.0441
1985-07-01	-0.1394	1.1225	-0.2614	1.1225
1985-10-01	0.0332	1.0981	-0.2462	1.0981
1986-01-01	0.2377	0.8687	-0.3984	0.8687
1986-04-01	0.2658	0.437	-0.7812	0.437
1986-07-01	-0.0464	-0.0851	-1.2312	-0.0851
1986-10-01	-0.5983	-0.5119	-1.4879	-0.5119
1987-01-01	-1.102	-0.6916	-1.4135	-0.6916
1987-04-01	-1.348	-0.6069	-1.118	-0.6069
1987-07-01	-1.3556	-0.358	-0.8598	-0.358
1987-10-01	-1.2693	-0.0507	-0.7806	-0.0507
1988-01-01	-1.1646	0.2693	-0.7158	0.2693
1988-04-01	-0.9299	0.5756	-0.4002	0.5756
1988-07-01	-0.4172	0.8484	0.2439	0.8484
1988-10-01	0.3493	1.0879	1.028	1.0879
1989-01-01	1.1932	1.3177	1.6391	1.3177
1989-04-01	1.7822	1.5372	1.8635	1.5372
1989-07-01	1.8238	1.707	1.7301	1.707
1989-10-01	1.308	1.7353	1.4584	1.7353
1990-01-01	0.5006	1.5357	1.2552	1.5357
1990-04-01	-0.1884	1.0763	1.1817	1.0763
1990-07-01	-0.4455	0.377	1.1364	0.377
1990-10-01	-0.2498	-0.4542	0.9704	-0.4542
1991-01-01	0.204	-1.2546	0.6202	-1.2546
1991-04-01	0.5837	-1.8103	0.1406	-1.8103
1991-07-01	0.6708	-1.9779	-0.3637	-1.9779
1991-10-01	0.3267	-1.7388	-0.8018	-1.7388
1992-01-01	-0.3036	-1.2495	-1.1319	-1.2495
1992-04-01	-0.9371	-0.7378	-1.3654	-0.7378
1992-07-01	-1.312	-0.4046	-1.5143	-0.4046
1992-10-01	-1.3293	-0.344	-1.5724	-0.344
1993-01-01	-1.1074	-0.4799	-1.5578	-0.4799
1993-04-01	-0.8667	-0.6412	-1.5063	-0.6412
1993-07-01	-0.8064	-0.6667	-1.4436	-0.6667
1993-10-01	-0.9188	-0.4591	-1.336	-0.4591
1994-01-01	-1.0089	-0.0519	-1.0919	-0.0519
1994-04-01	-0.8661	0.3732	-0.635	0.3732
1994-07-01	-0.3832	0.5549	-0.0156	0.5549
1994-10-01	0.3164	0.3752	0.5966	0.3752
1995-01-01	0.9527	-0.0598	1.0178	-0.0598
1995-04-01	1.2542	-0.5278	1.1413	-0.5278
1995-07-01	1.0936	-0.8267	0.9754	-0.8267
1995-10-01	0.5488	-0.8921	0.6503	-0.8921
1996-01-01	-0.0586	-0.7951	0.3395	-0.7951
1996-04-01	-0.4383	-0.6277	0.1429	-0.6277
1996-07-01	-0.4687	-0.4721	0.065	-0.4721
1996-10-01	-0.2591	-0.3778	0.051	-0.3778
1997-01-01	0.049	-0.3386	0.0583	-0.3386
1997-04-01	0.3042	-0.2907	0.0722	-0.2907
1997-07-01	0.4411	-0.2377	0.0893	-0.2377
1997-10-01	0.4774	-0.1614	0.1081	-0.1614
1998-01-01	0.4828	-0.0537	0.1075	-0.0537
1998-04-01	0.5227	0.1157	0.0584	0.1157
1998-07-01	0.5286	0.3619	-0.0552	0.3619
1998-10-01	0.393	0.6744	-0.2094	0.6744
1999-01-01	0.0758	0.9964	-0.3281	0.9964
1999-04-01	-0.3036	1.2622	-0.3186	1.2622
1999-07-01	-0.5587	1.4328	-0.0996	1.4328
1999-10-01	-0.589	1.5369	0.3619	1.5369
2000-01-01	-0.3309	1.6198	1.0109	1.6198
2000-04-01	0.1325	1.6616	1.6725	1.6616
2000-07-01	0.624	1.5372	2.094	1.5372
2000-10-01	1.026	1.1481	2.071	1.1481
2001-01-01	1.2309	0.5704	1.5546	0.5704
2001-04-01	1.2231	0.0058	0.6965	0.0058
2001-07-01	1.018	-0.3478	-0.2171	-0.3478
2001-10-01	0.6636	-0.4494	-0.9127	-0.4494
2002-01-01	0.2486	-0.4493	-1.2431	-0.4493
2002-04-01	-0.1758	-0.5392	-1.2552	-0.5392
2002-07-01	-0.5375	-0.7963	-1.1279	-0.7963
2002-10-01	-0.7908	-1.1385	-1.046	-1.1385
2003-01-01	-0.9105	-1.3798	-1.0931	-1.3798
2003-04-01	-0.943	-1.3248	-1.2393	-1.3248
2003-07-01	-0.9986	-0.9606	-1.4009	-0.9606

Return to Figure 2

Figure 3A: Output and Real Rates: Conditional Comovements Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Periods	Green Total	Red MP	Blue N-Tech	Black I-Tech	Blue-label News	Black-label Rest
-8	0.4124	0.0748	-0.1025	0.0195	0.2002	0.2204
-7	0.3324	0.0679	-0.0819	0.0125	0.1848	0.149
-6	0.2465	0.0567	-0.0521	0.0087	0.1645	0.0687
-5	0.1805	0.0442	-0.003	0.0101	0.1516	-0.0224
-4	0.1394	0.0319	0.073	0.0132	0.1482	-0.1268
-3	0.0982	0.0177	0.1703	0.0109	0.1404	-0.2411
-2	0.0167	-0.0025	0.2673	-0.0025	0.1069	-0.3524
-1	-0.131	-0.0314	0.3336	-0.0266	0.034	-0.4407
0	-0.3326	-0.0663	0.3452	-0.0531	-0.072	-0.4865
1	-0.5368	-0.0993	0.2972	-0.0704	-0.1847	-0.4797
2	-0.6798	-0.1207	0.2068	-0.0703	-0.272	-0.4236
3	-0.7203	-0.1244	0.1025	-0.0529	-0.3135	-0.3321
4	-0.6597	-0.1107	0.0094	-0.0262	-0.3094	-0.2228
5	-0.5348	-0.0862	-0.0611	-0.0011	-0.2765	-0.1099
6	-0.3906	-0.0589	-0.1116	0.0154	-0.2338	-0.0018
7	-0.2546	-0.0339	-0.1498	0.0227	-0.1909	0.0973
8	-0.129	-0.012	-0.1801	0.0249	-0.146	0.1844

Return to Figure 3a

Figure 3B: Output and Real Rates: Conditional Comovements

Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance, Periods	MP Light Band, 95%-ub	MP Light Band, 95%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	MP Mean, Solid line	MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	N-Tech Mean, Solid line	N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	I-Tech Mean, Solid line	I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	News Light Band, 95%-ub	News Light Band, 95%-lb	News Dark Band, 68%-lb	News Dark Band, 68%-ub	News Mean, Solid line	News VAR estimate, Dashed line	Total Light Band, 95%-ub	Total Light Band, 95%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-ub	Total Mean, Solid line	Total VAR estimate, Dashed line
-8	0.7297	-0.2063	0.162	0.588	0.3776	0.5708	0.7696	-0.7028	-0.4855	0.4074	-0.05	-0.2851	0.7467	-0.5432	-0.1366	0.5346	0.2111	0.2421	0.7988	-0.4152	-0.0136	0.6177	0.3171	0.5578	0.5663	-0.1386	0.0447	0.4155	0.2328	0.2499
-7	0.7019	-0.3017	0.1067	0.5513	0.3283	0.5179	0.7269	-0.744	-0.52	0.3835	-0.0716	-0.2278	0.7132	-0.607	-0.2136	0.4819	0.1455	0.1549	0.764	-0.4895	-0.0595	0.5774	0.2768	0.515	0.5412	-0.2011	-0.006	0.3693	0.1834	0.2014
-6	0.6748	-0.3807	0.0219	0.5025	0.2609	0.4321	0.7033	-0.7779	-0.538	0.3777	-0.076	-0.145	0.6704	-0.6797	-0.2975	0.4327	0.0822	0.1086	0.7224	-0.5899	-0.0936	0.5356	0.2328	0.4583	0.4952	-0.2412	-0.0584	0.3156	0.1305	0.1493
-5	0.6498	-0.4592	-0.0592	0.4533	0.2016	0.337	0.7064	-0.7911	-0.5105	0.3932	-0.0418	-0.0083	0.64	-0.7183	-0.3427	0.4207	0.0525	0.1253	0.6827	-0.6186	-0.0987	0.5223	0.2157	0.4225	0.4492	-0.2755	-0.0958	0.2774	0.0919	0.1094
-4	0.6453	-0.4782	-0.1084	0.423	0.1593	0.2432	0.7586	-0.7592	-0.4588	0.4838	0.0405	0.203	0.6757	-0.7272	-0.3653	0.4524	0.0619	0.1634	0.7152	-0.6246	-0.1164	0.5479	0.2331	0.4129	0.4259	-0.3087	-0.1268	0.268	0.0715	0.0844
-3	0.6529	-0.5059	-0.1854	0.4032	0.1129	0.1351	0.8187	-0.7379	-0.3587	0.6055	0.156	0.4737	0.7791	-0.7313	-0.4054	0.5372	0.0797	0.1353	0.788	-0.6639	-0.1758	0.6252	0.256	0.3913	0.4212	-0.3328	-0.1497	0.2497	0.0537	0.0595
-2	0.6793	-0.5801	-0.3013	0.3499	0.0216	-0.0193	0.9002	-0.7284	-0.288	0.7384	0.266	0.7436	0.867	-0.7679	-0.4859	0.6074	0.0564	-0.0315	0.8845	-0.7422	-0.2691	0.7049	0.2332	0.2979	0.4049	-0.3852	-0.198	0.2183	0.012	0.0101
-1	0.6587	-0.6986	-0.4782	0.1927	-0.1425	-0.2392	0.9425	-0.7555	-0.29	0.8306	0.3255	0.9281	0.902	-0.8407	-0.6021	0.5785	-0.0408	-0.3302	0.9196	-0.8269	-0.4237	0.6724	0.1254	0.0946	0.3382	-0.4637	-0.2861	0.1387	-0.0715	-0.0794
0	0.5169	-0.8226	-0.6738	-0.0671	-0.3649	-0.5054	0.9451	-0.8102	-0.3273	0.8421	0.3077	0.9603	0.8366	-0.897	-0.72	0.4157	-0.199	-0.6593	0.8363	-0.8942	-0.6059	0.5037	-0.0643	-0.2006	0.2075	-0.5578	-0.3902	0.007	-0.1898	-0.2016
1	0.3605	-0.9264	-0.8393	-0.3345	-0.5853	-0.7572	0.9109	-0.8453	-0.4249	0.7588	0.2185	0.8269	0.7143	-0.9382	-0.8303	0.2051	-0.3618	-0.8741	0.6938	-0.9462	-0.7706	0.2365	-0.286	-0.5147	0.0729	-0.636	-0.4968	-0.1251	-0.3113	-0.3253
2	0.1512	-0.9748	-0.9259	-0.5311	-0.7271	-0.9208	0.8392	-0.8539	-0.5249	0.6187	0.0926	0.5753	0.6537	-0.9553	-0.8709	0.0297	-0.462	-0.8725	0.563	-0.9636	-0.8636	-0.0199	-0.47	-0.758	-0.0196	-0.6989	-0.5636	-0.2251	-0.3957	-0.4119
3	0.1611	-0.9631	-0.9171	-0.5885	-0.741	-0.9484	0.7748	-0.8486	-0.5823	0.4869	-0.0271	0.285	0.6185	-0.9401	-0.8518	-0.0005	-0.4624	-0.6562	0.4522	-0.9504	-0.886	-0.1794	-0.5656	-0.8735	-0.0465	-0.7077	-0.5814	-0.2497	-0.417	-0.4364
4	0.2493	-0.9258	-0.8524	-0.4369	-0.6318	-0.8443	0.7083	-0.8315	-0.6069	0.3814	-0.1125	0.0262	0.6481	-0.9087	-0.7874	0.1166	-0.3759	-0.3257	0.4787	-0.9195	-0.8562	-0.2372	-0.5654	-0.8622	-0.0221	-0.6833	-0.5525	-0.2056	-0.3763	-0.3997
5	0.4093	-0.8716	-0.735	-0.163	-0.4513	-0.6574	0.6752	-0.8201	-0.6072	0.3136	-0.1596	-0.17	0.7385	-0.8607	-0.6909	0.2583	-0.2514	-0.0137	0.4546	-0.886	-0.7872	-0.1844	-0.5	-0.7704	0.054	-0.609	-0.4797	-0.1194	-0.2971	-0.324
6	0.5254	-0.8092	-0.5888	0.071	-0.2635	-0.449	0.6323	-0.7897	-0.5995	0.2733	-0.1816	-0.3103	0.7495	-0.787	-0.5849	0.3604	-0.1392	0.1913	0.5003	-0.8364	-0.7145	-0.0703	-0.4109	-0.6513	0.1411	-0.5416	-0.3915	-0.0273	-0.2078	-0.2367
7	0.5803	-0.748	-0.4445	0.2204	-0.1079	-0.2586	0.6035	-0.7608	-0.5837	0.2434	-0.1929	-0.4166	0.723	-0.7151	-0.4956	0.4047	-0.0607	0.2817	0.5471	-0.783	-0.6404	0.0337	-0.3229	-0.5318	0.212	-0.4707	-0.311	0.0589	-0.1252	-0.1542
8	0.6085	-0.6567	-0.3004	0.3247	0.0131	-0.0918	0.6008	-0.7413	-0.5688	0.2304	-0.198	-0.5011	0.7049	-0.6654	-0.4272	0.4199	-0.0051	0.3085	0.5815	-0.7367	-0.5716	0.153	-0.2362	-0.4068	0.2783	-0.3889	-0.2297	0.1311	-0.0503	-0.0781

Return to Figure 3b

Figure 4: Impulse Responses

Periods	(y) MP Light Band, 95%-ub	(y) MP Light Band, 95%-lb	(y) MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	(y) MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	(y) MP Mean, Solid line	(y) MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	(y) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(y) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(y) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(y) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(y) N-Tech Mean, Solid line	(y) N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(y) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(y) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(y) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(y) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(y) I-Tech Mean, Solid line	(y) I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(y) News Light Band, 95%-ub	(y) News Light Band, 95%-lb	(y) News Dark Band, 68%-lb	(y) News Dark Band, 68%-ub	(y) News Mean, Solid line	(y) News VAR estimate, Dashed line	(i) MP Light Band, 95%-ub	(i) MP Light Band, 95%-lb	(i) MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	(i) MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	(i) MP Mean, Solid line	(i) MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	(i) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(i) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(i) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(i) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(i) N-Tech Mean, Solid line	(i) N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(i) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(i) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(i) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(i) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(i) I-Tech Mean, Solid line	(i) I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(i) News Light Band, 95%-ub	(i) News Light Band, 95%-lb	(i) News Dark Band, 68%-lb	(i) News Dark Band, 68%-ub	(i) News Mean, Solid line	(i) News VAR estimate, Dashed line	(r ) MP Light Band, 95%-ub	(r ) MP Light Band, 95%-lb	(r ) MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	(r ) MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	(r ) MP Mean, Solid line	(r ) MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	(r ) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(r ) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(r ) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(r ) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(r ) N-Tech Mean, Solid line	(r ) N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(r ) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(r ) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(r ) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(r ) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(r ) I-Tech Mean, Solid line	(r ) I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(r ) News Light Band, 95%-ub	(r ) News Light Band, 95%-lb	(r ) News Dark Band, 68%-lb	(r ) News Dark Band, 68%-ub	(r ) News Mean, Solid line	(r ) News VAR estimate, Dashed line	(pi) MP Light Band, 95%-ub	(pi) MP Light Band, 95%-lb	(pi) MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	(pi) MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	(pi) MP Mean, Solid line	(pi) MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	(pi) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(pi) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(pi) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(pi) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(pi) N-Tech Mean, Solid line	(pi) N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(pi) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(pi) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(pi) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(pi) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(pi) I-Tech Mean, Solid line	(pi) I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(pi) News Light Band, 95%-ub	(pi) News Light Band, 95%-lb	(pi) News Dark Band, 68%-lb	(pi) News Dark Band, 68%-ub	(pi) News Mean, Solid line	(pi) News VAR estimate, Dashed line	(h) MP Light Band, 95%-ub	(h) MP Light Band, 95%-lb	(h) MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	(h) MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	(h) MP Mean, Solid line	(h) MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	(h) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(h) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(h) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(h) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(h) N-Tech Mean, Solid line	(h) N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(h) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(h) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(h) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(h) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(h) I-Tech Mean, Solid line	(h) I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(h) News Light Band, 95%-ub	(h) News Light Band, 95%-lb	(h) News Dark Band, 68%-lb	(h) News Dark Band, 68%-ub	(h) News Mean, Solid line	(h) News VAR estimate, Dashed line
0	2.94E-11	-1.77E-11	-1.23E-12	6.97E-12	2.21E-12	2.61E-12	0.46443	-0.034433	0.11327	0.36705	0.23778	0.36872	0.33598	-0.18301	-0.049094	0.21612	0.085715	0.15362	0.078259	-0.37992	-0.3155	-0.079409	-0.20027	-0.27773	0.45812	0.014003	0.11137	0.39604	0.26208	0.37771	0.24233	-0.237	-0.13051	0.1201	-0.0056016	0.14874	0.26062	-0.22995	-0.10759	0.1492	0.020217	0.016057	0.32532	-0.46071	-0.34146	0.047887	-0.16322	-0.27754	0.26096	-0.071429	0.02967	0.19986	0.11813	0.23262	0.30315	-0.16439	-0.036206	0.19915	0.081317	0.18721	0.11832	-0.37387	-0.28628	-0.036672	-0.161	-0.28035	0.30483	-0.26027	-0.10621	0.18482	0.038938	0.2451	6.76E-14	-1.42E-13	-2.36E-14	4.20E-15	-9.79E-15	-1.45E-14	0.17528	-0.87199	-0.6782	-0.17403	-0.42983	-0.60611	0.80516	-0.31101	0.047586	0.61643	0.33501	0.76935	0.5825	-0.5496	-0.26401	0.31099	0.022212	-0.21365	2.94E-11	-1.77E-11	-1.23E-12	6.97E-12	2.21E-12	2.61E-12	0.26599	-0.12596	-0.027777	0.18862	0.080837	0.25172	0.31013	-0.10437	0.018863	0.23466	0.12629	0.18452	0.078259	-0.37992	-0.3155	-0.079409	-0.20027	-0.27773
1	0.067108	-0.10709	-0.063868	0.026028	-0.019951	-0.047207	0.55163	-0.015177	0.13686	0.42881	0.28576	0.45853	0.40888	-0.19034	-0.036464	0.26816	0.11471	0.15581	0.13821	-0.48567	-0.3825	-0.077094	-0.23334	-0.39387	0.4537	-0.051371	0.090105	0.38486	0.24503	0.31845	0.42425	-0.25645	-0.077042	0.27267	0.095482	0.34032	0.4754	-0.22476	-0.048506	0.31897	0.13583	0.13921	0.35946	-0.65024	-0.53538	-0.047703	-0.31267	-0.54305	0.4051	-0.084733	0.05859	0.3362	0.20573	0.2305	0.38631	-0.18036	-0.021117	0.26763	0.1238	0.3751	0.35822	-0.25557	-0.10727	0.22698	0.059306	0.044695	0.18228	-0.43962	-0.33805	-0.040514	-0.1924	-0.22992	0.35044	-0.12167	0.017399	0.25882	0.13916	0.1451	0.24272	-0.41589	-0.24977	0.076327	-0.082928	-0.038477	0.49614	-0.16016	0.0095445	0.35532	0.18328	0.29641	0.44543	-0.62595	-0.46709	0.089251	-0.21987	-0.52264	0.07019	-0.066569	-0.032243	0.034862	0.00026386	-0.0088837	0.4107	-0.15356	0.00054811	0.29528	0.14813	0.38947	0.46426	-0.15032	0.012711	0.32626	0.16856	0.21881	0.096619	-0.56097	-0.46549	-0.12908	-0.30326	-0.44507
2	0.048987	-0.26623	-0.19953	-0.031181	-0.11643	-0.19481	0.6713	0.008254	0.19397	0.52431	0.35838	0.53182	0.51834	-0.17219	0.013996	0.36446	0.18863	0.26582	0.18842	-0.47208	-0.3428	-0.00023105	-0.17031	-0.29056	0.23396	-0.056157	0.013517	0.16536	0.090406	0.15229	0.38275	-0.27528	-0.098376	0.22655	0.06105	0.25561	0.50252	-0.16253	0.0072515	0.34065	0.17742	0.19078	0.27934	-0.65357	-0.53268	-0.089356	-0.32679	-0.61039	0.3579	-0.063608	0.053915	0.27804	0.17029	0.22168	0.52915	-0.13114	0.051252	0.38732	0.21942	0.52494	0.37046	-0.42358	-0.26158	0.14992	-0.054804	-0.20163	0.19073	-0.53204	-0.41789	-0.065679	-0.2461	-0.26221	0.20073	-0.12468	-0.049764	0.11779	0.034541	0.087949	0.1953	-0.26622	-0.14917	0.082638	-0.033061	-0.034773	0.31904	-0.16698	-0.044935	0.19387	0.073798	0.09452	0.28744	-0.40932	-0.30067	0.064357	-0.12975	-0.31313	0.070864	-0.17264	-0.11787	0.005689	-0.055995	-0.090712	0.54602	-0.11797	0.070163	0.40542	0.23852	0.50156	0.58731	-0.1399	0.064261	0.42843	0.2481	0.31516	0.11274	-0.63133	-0.4973	-0.11528	-0.31106	-0.45651
3	0.04996	-0.32111	-0.24703	-0.041222	-0.14638	-0.23042	0.65577	0.013612	0.18782	0.50237	0.34573	0.48038	0.44578	-0.22406	-0.060938	0.2675	0.10563	0.16103	0.22288	-0.38695	-0.25177	0.061737	-0.095269	-0.18239	0.17992	-0.085777	-0.022964	0.11489	0.045478	0.084892	0.33991	-0.30786	-0.13075	0.17242	0.022213	0.19382	0.48213	-0.14621	0.016487	0.33303	0.17579	0.20914	0.2641	-0.63546	-0.49385	-0.069627	-0.29624	-0.60655	0.21383	-0.090355	-0.0051007	0.15133	0.072958	0.095088	0.42217	-0.1304	0.012491	0.29456	0.15349	0.39636	0.41162	-0.25453	-0.084408	0.25712	0.08609	0.033669	0.12789	-0.42537	-0.31335	-0.051634	-0.18567	-0.2233	0.11175	-0.23935	-0.16552	0.011671	-0.07809	-0.069388	0.17955	-0.46554	-0.31416	0.00022198	-0.15724	-0.26932	0.53816	-0.12582	0.059245	0.39613	0.22869	0.39241	0.29141	-0.42519	-0.2667	0.09248	-0.09061	-0.34817	0.075575	-0.26742	-0.19273	-0.023625	-0.10883	-0.15704	0.59322	-0.076179	0.11346	0.44555	0.27984	0.51734	0.54777	-0.16917	0.01364	0.37919	0.19752	0.2503	0.1224	-0.60851	-0.45757	-0.082201	-0.27439	-0.4046
4	0.062804	-0.33468	-0.24844	-0.039158	-0.14484	-0.23196	0.68779	0.040942	0.22288	0.53688	0.38143	0.51296	0.39654	-0.28601	-0.11421	0.22315	0.052632	0.071727	0.3013	-0.39204	-0.21471	0.14163	-0.038734	-0.073408	0.18964	-0.084837	-0.012865	0.12323	0.054784	0.099246	0.34538	-0.22346	-0.075983	0.2029	0.062326	0.23169	0.43221	-0.15827	-0.013161	0.28002	0.13328	0.16203	0.23978	-0.55952	-0.42096	-0.046831	-0.24521	-0.52023	0.23383	-0.077189	0.0094888	0.16909	0.088858	0.11257	0.39494	-0.13209	0.0018757	0.27033	0.13304	0.3593	0.37755	-0.21912	-0.074215	0.23808	0.080888	0.060991	0.17974	-0.42848	-0.31235	-0.03653	-0.18006	-0.26868	0.11602	-0.1703	-0.1003	0.049019	-0.025949	-0.010197	0.12224	-0.37766	-0.25461	-0.010272	-0.13218	-0.20254	0.37888	-0.20838	-0.061846	0.23283	0.085939	0.17548	0.24601	-0.40876	-0.27352	0.048028	-0.11871	-0.38325	0.079812	-0.31522	-0.23261	-0.031676	-0.13197	-0.18886	0.60082	-0.04106	0.13648	0.44932	0.29241	0.51476	0.49869	-0.20015	-0.019557	0.32884	0.1547	0.17772	0.20647	-0.54439	-0.39123	-0.0046229	-0.20258	-0.29917
5	0.085368	-0.34233	-0.25299	-0.031689	-0.14239	-0.22523	0.70936	0.05891	0.22753	0.54664	0.38917	0.50509	0.35348	-0.34311	-0.15983	0.18687	0.0089188	-0.00040058	0.36444	-0.39277	-0.18113	0.22031	0.019102	0.034074	0.14219	-0.12525	-0.05756	0.083441	0.012811	0.047497	0.32482	-0.19127	-0.052348	0.20501	0.076569	0.20771	0.38571	-0.14224	-0.022358	0.25072	0.11239	0.13884	0.18543	-0.48964	-0.36928	-0.032072	-0.2048	-0.46859	0.24354	-0.064344	0.019911	0.1807	0.10222	0.13588	0.4471	-0.086558	0.047577	0.31208	0.17659	0.42171	0.34677	-0.2771	-0.13597	0.1885	0.028511	-0.037507	0.19158	-0.42519	-0.3106	-0.016357	-0.17063	-0.25796	0.11343	-0.19285	-0.11043	0.042714	-0.035209	-0.013324	0.1356	-0.287	-0.17942	0.038235	-0.07094	-0.12761	0.29514	-0.19613	-0.064656	0.17582	0.053231	0.10104	0.15485	-0.29063	-0.18748	0.042026	-0.072794	-0.25154	0.094706	-0.35088	-0.25577	-0.023981	-0.143	-0.20258	0.60091	-0.02283	0.14208	0.45048	0.29613	0.49723	0.45966	-0.22389	-0.058063	0.29196	0.11631	0.12037	0.30272	-0.52309	-0.33754	0.096658	-0.12537	-0.16968
6	0.079969	-0.35184	-0.24649	-0.031408	-0.13822	-0.22615	0.70105	0.062142	0.21656	0.54761	0.38418	0.48175	0.33628	-0.37436	-0.1829	0.15882	-0.012645	-0.041294	0.40594	-0.38585	-0.15544	0.25656	0.053961	0.093788	0.11135	-0.16244	-0.095002	0.046867	-0.024085	-0.010397	0.2929	-0.20751	-0.084277	0.16883	0.044043	0.13669	0.3625	-0.14399	-0.027437	0.23297	0.10203	0.12317	0.15072	-0.43958	-0.31818	-0.015855	-0.16957	-0.44752	0.19371	-0.058749	0.0037002	0.13163	0.066416	0.099199	0.40795	-0.086282	0.028806	0.27258	0.14976	0.36299	0.35172	-0.22996	-0.095498	0.1968	0.052294	-0.006557	0.172	-0.35586	-0.24956	-0.0026277	-0.12944	-0.22215	0.095359	-0.25702	-0.17799	0.0017028	-0.090173	-0.088385	0.15023	-0.34724	-0.23086	0.02999	-0.10196	-0.214	0.37069	-0.22271	-0.06256	0.23205	0.083383	0.17635	0.19594	-0.25456	-0.14937	0.073096	-0.039735	-0.21063	0.10669	-0.36005	-0.26046	-0.018049	-0.14093	-0.20323	0.59053	-0.034423	0.13265	0.43898	0.28342	0.45572	0.42547	-0.25424	-0.086998	0.25712	0.085187	0.070379	0.34906	-0.50404	-0.29129	0.16333	-0.068078	-0.079764
7	0.081236	-0.31908	-0.21872	-0.019571	-0.11837	-0.20583	0.6931	0.056802	0.21841	0.54494	0.37972	0.47456	0.30515	-0.39188	-0.20608	0.1325	-0.036037	-0.093426	0.43824	-0.37886	-0.12808	0.28084	0.081568	0.14747	0.10534	-0.17569	-0.099238	0.038313	-0.031432	-0.03475	0.26936	-0.2089	-0.093046	0.15214	0.028829	0.10367	0.33457	-0.15042	-0.036704	0.21389	0.088321	0.10235	0.13161	-0.39079	-0.26438	0.0038013	-0.1324	-0.3986	0.17121	-0.070753	-0.006728	0.11146	0.052488	0.074852	0.35966	-0.1102	-0.0092853	0.22269	0.10852	0.29609	0.32629	-0.19815	-0.068116	0.19214	0.064577	0.019362	0.16808	-0.3468	-0.24381	0.0059866	-0.12293	-0.25218	0.078528	-0.25437	-0.16823	-0.0105	-0.090313	-0.1096	0.17868	-0.36963	-0.24186	0.029984	-0.10596	-0.22629	0.35699	-0.26433	-0.11042	0.2135	0.049961	0.12973	0.19022	-0.26164	-0.15931	0.064967	-0.044194	-0.22537	0.10537	-0.34861	-0.24173	-0.011384	-0.12751	-0.19289	0.58193	-0.046992	0.12526	0.43256	0.27514	0.42806	0.39763	-0.26988	-0.10571	0.22637	0.062737	0.023791	0.39074	-0.48169	-0.25986	0.21573	-0.023264	-0.0070352
8	0.080511	-0.30416	-0.19919	-0.0085615	-0.10492	-0.19239	0.69559	0.052716	0.2199	0.54962	0.38409	0.47345	0.29504	-0.40833	-0.21913	0.1188	-0.047714	-0.12099	0.46189	-0.36536	-0.11403	0.30957	0.10618	0.20529	0.099656	-0.19244	-0.11051	0.030021	-0.039904	-0.052823	0.26603	-0.21416	-0.095801	0.1425	0.023703	0.07383	0.31975	-0.15757	-0.04121	0.20261	0.078752	0.094471	0.14509	-0.33381	-0.21469	0.027544	-0.094906	-0.33662	0.18071	-0.063826	0.0041004	0.12148	0.062755	0.084563	0.36963	-0.11573	-0.012012	0.22351	0.10625	0.29564	0.31502	-0.21289	-0.078285	0.18092	0.052208	-0.0096275	0.18438	-0.34758	-0.24665	0.013556	-0.12271	-0.26471	0.076485	-0.25692	-0.16133	-0.0012979	-0.083585	-0.1096	0.17354	-0.33413	-0.21185	0.05041	-0.080382	-0.19242	0.30869	-0.26693	-0.12623	0.17467	0.024056	0.082991	0.22505	-0.23498	-0.12654	0.10156	-0.011381	-0.14642	0.10472	-0.33201	-0.22196	-0.0061318	-0.11408	-0.18301	0.57534	-0.050556	0.1138	0.41626	0.2632	0.3958	0.37383	-0.28176	-0.11162	0.20976	0.051287	-0.0023032	0.42706	-0.44817	-0.22765	0.25863	0.020721	0.066734
9	0.081938	-0.28451	-0.17844	-0.00067735	-0.090579	-0.17693	0.68496	0.055666	0.2143	0.53688	0.37821	0.45819	0.29087	-0.41394	-0.22521	0.11012	-0.05703	-0.14108	0.47368	-0.34829	-0.08651	0.32332	0.1248	0.24516	0.089604	-0.212	-0.12687	0.019736	-0.053199	-0.075523	0.25875	-0.22995	-0.10756	0.1389	0.013183	0.032227	0.30947	-0.17788	-0.051371	0.19645	0.069677	0.087758	0.16189	-0.30047	-0.18111	0.050661	-0.065566	-0.29191	0.16111	-0.067592	-0.0058845	0.10427	0.048578	0.066291	0.36266	-0.099781	-0.0029518	0.21948	0.10782	0.28369	0.31121	-0.19405	-0.062621	0.18486	0.062525	0.0053561	0.17096	-0.33004	-0.22879	0.011591	-0.11113	-0.25213	0.078084	-0.2788	-0.19156	-0.012487	-0.10271	-0.13739	0.19967	-0.36724	-0.22728	0.059108	-0.083763	-0.22181	0.33092	-0.28466	-0.13275	0.1867	0.027222	0.1041	0.28128	-0.25418	-0.10806	0.15375	0.026466	-0.071908	0.10466	-0.30734	-0.20265	0.0018119	-0.099461	-0.171	0.54841	-0.060157	0.096489	0.39409	0.24533	0.35501	0.36174	-0.28741	-0.11235	0.20308	0.044733	-0.016403	0.4509	-0.41577	-0.19059	0.28669	0.058946	0.12853
10	0.086733	-0.25131	-0.15286	0.011957	-0.070922	-0.15492	0.67742	0.059901	0.22111	0.53638	0.37798	0.45509	0.28056	-0.42507	-0.2321	0.10105	-0.065526	-0.16367	0.48578	-0.34231	-0.071218	0.32252	0.13459	0.27359	0.07703	-0.21945	-0.12951	0.015738	-0.05671	-0.087446	0.2492	-0.23655	-0.12007	0.12412	-0.00052854	-0.0054713	0.29493	-0.19671	-0.067548	0.18535	0.056044	0.072013	0.19084	-0.2632	-0.1456	0.075803	-0.034556	-0.24291	0.13595	-0.073788	-0.019002	0.079343	0.030194	0.039412	0.32393	-0.10106	-0.012333	0.19781	0.091134	0.24438	0.3022	-0.16044	-0.042019	0.18387	0.071635	0.026996	0.1561	-0.30774	-0.21398	0.014994	-0.10224	-0.25943	0.072296	-0.27891	-0.18616	-0.015776	-0.10057	-0.14181	0.1991	-0.39799	-0.25052	0.053994	-0.096511	-0.25146	0.34119	-0.32471	-0.16317	0.17871	0.0079671	0.082401	0.30655	-0.25898	-0.093435	0.17606	0.044138	-0.039779	0.10891	-0.27601	-0.17099	0.015525	-0.078605	-0.14977	0.52201	-0.071864	0.077556	0.3714	0.22749	0.31874	0.34467	-0.2871	-0.11547	0.19112	0.037555	-0.032573	0.46325	-0.38338	-0.15224	0.30425	0.08967	0.18026
11	0.095827	-0.22016	-0.12603	0.024633	-0.049834	-0.12873	0.68396	0.061046	0.22617	0.5315	0.37661	0.45466	0.2814	-0.42151	-0.23804	0.098745	-0.070586	-0.18144	0.48809	-0.30889	-0.051074	0.32274	0.14156	0.29766	0.07837	-0.21978	-0.1268	0.016219	-0.055108	-0.090818	0.23182	-0.25038	-0.13384	0.10796	-0.013633	-0.040726	0.28702	-0.20096	-0.080852	0.17077	0.044453	0.061325	0.22073	-0.23093	-0.11117	0.10664	-0.0010002	-0.18172	0.12268	-0.073513	-0.023035	0.073505	0.024917	0.026484	0.31198	-0.1047	-0.016407	0.19023	0.084788	0.22897	0.29363	-0.15734	-0.039924	0.17546	0.068543	0.024568	0.14998	-0.29379	-0.20262	0.016948	-0.093521	-0.25763	0.076903	-0.25678	-0.16777	-0.0042705	-0.085441	-0.12686	0.18895	-0.39381	-0.24141	0.055834	-0.093042	-0.24985	0.30934	-0.32968	-0.18108	0.15116	-0.014718	0.045017	0.32588	-0.25124	-0.073227	0.20306	0.066117	0.016511	0.10989	-0.24147	-0.14055	0.028334	-0.055107	-0.12295	0.51446	-0.080035	0.066542	0.35386	0.21011	0.28557	0.33741	-0.28542	-0.11761	0.18319	0.033571	-0.043832	0.48019	-0.3344	-0.11015	0.31413	0.11447	0.22516
12	0.10965	-0.19576	-0.10116	0.036834	-0.031245	-0.1044	0.6828	0.071541	0.22711	0.52749	0.37498	0.45388	0.28492	-0.42432	-0.2394	0.10116	-0.070356	-0.1909	0.47689	-0.28866	-0.038562	0.30826	0.14015	0.30622	0.07917	-0.21275	-0.12258	0.018802	-0.052105	-0.089021	0.21248	-0.26451	-0.14997	0.091369	-0.030023	-0.080492	0.27526	-0.21269	-0.093357	0.16171	0.033571	0.052626	0.25317	-0.21354	-0.085491	0.13489	0.027069	-0.12695	0.11099	-0.078519	-0.027613	0.064512	0.017816	0.014383	0.30467	-0.10051	-0.015507	0.18059	0.081721	0.21477	0.28516	-0.14911	-0.034315	0.16929	0.067616	0.02915	0.13685	-0.26698	-0.17625	0.021075	-0.076413	-0.23343	0.076023	-0.24866	-0.1605	-0.00011791	-0.078748	-0.1173	0.17822	-0.40649	-0.24737	0.047537	-0.10075	-0.26969	0.3027	-0.3367	-0.18744	0.14588	-0.022904	0.036758	0.35221	-0.24704	-0.053017	0.23441	0.091099	0.075909	0.11759	-0.21455	-0.10943	0.045921	-0.031009	-0.09353	0.48715	-0.088779	0.049641	0.33538	0.19028	0.25138	0.34157	-0.28087	-0.11457	0.18102	0.034019	-0.048771	0.47582	-0.3025	-0.071883	0.31225	0.13052	0.255
13	0.13066	-0.16857	-0.079162	0.057822	-0.012353	-0.078742	0.67899	0.075038	0.22441	0.52304	0.37329	0.45733	0.28489	-0.4339	-0.24139	0.10299	-0.069591	-0.20101	0.4639	-0.2577	-0.027855	0.29247	0.13137	0.29951	0.078964	-0.20097	-0.11348	0.023517	-0.045499	-0.080971	0.1891	-0.27925	-0.16778	0.072733	-0.046287	-0.11696	0.26863	-0.23001	-0.10494	0.1472	0.021702	0.039796	0.27552	-0.19925	-0.063112	0.15663	0.047852	-0.081832	0.095585	-0.083092	-0.035018	0.052827	0.0078065	-0.0004364	0.27747	-0.10429	-0.018237	0.16546	0.072155	0.18848	0.27356	-0.13447	-0.027205	0.16492	0.068528	0.039692	0.13226	-0.24331	-0.15344	0.027195	-0.06145	-0.21447	0.079067	-0.22697	-0.14493	0.0067011	-0.068523	-0.1034	0.15945	-0.42285	-0.25875	0.036829	-0.11385	-0.29527	0.30131	-0.34626	-0.19778	0.13342	-0.032843	0.023475	0.36019	-0.23859	-0.040205	0.24642	0.10172	0.10648	0.1342	-0.17696	-0.076796	0.065847	-0.0064473	-0.061749	0.46984	-0.1023	0.027701	0.31497	0.17112	0.22167	0.33099	-0.2713	-0.11108	0.18257	0.036689	-0.051972	0.45891	-0.26508	-0.035499	0.30567	0.13683	0.2683
14	0.148	-0.14714	-0.060868	0.074875	0.0044958	-0.054722	0.68471	0.075701	0.2253	0.5234	0.37519	0.46722	0.31223	-0.43552	-0.24578	0.11329	-0.066055	-0.20747	0.4422	-0.23775	-0.028802	0.27005	0.11772	0.28384	0.082908	-0.18544	-0.10188	0.029282	-0.036148	-0.068371	0.17037	-0.29095	-0.18088	0.057554	-0.061996	-0.14984	0.25986	-0.24022	-0.11347	0.1357	0.011986	0.028786	0.29209	-0.17934	-0.043231	0.17298	0.064924	-0.04104	0.087687	-0.085568	-0.037668	0.04719	0.0039329	-0.0075562	0.25665	-0.10449	-0.023439	0.15411	0.063068	0.16705	0.25915	-0.13162	-0.026774	0.15622	0.063745	0.038665	0.13115	-0.21895	-0.13438	0.035674	-0.049098	-0.19771	0.085696	-0.20123	-0.12061	0.016935	-0.051703	-0.080535	0.1444	-0.42899	-0.25995	0.019935	-0.12065	-0.30544	0.28105	-0.35592	-0.20801	0.11677	-0.045794	0.00010395	0.36238	-0.22498	-0.027303	0.24626	0.10754	0.13264	0.15926	-0.14429	-0.054492	0.089132	0.016752	-0.030051	0.4606	-0.12137	0.0067026	0.29281	0.15366	0.19733	0.34583	-0.26012	-0.10631	0.18834	0.042192	-0.051481	0.44713	-0.21944	-0.018056	0.29396	0.13561	0.26856
15	0.16683	-0.12984	-0.049598	0.086335	0.018018	-0.034559	0.69227	0.069642	0.22679	0.52739	0.37768	0.47919	0.33927	-0.44596	-0.24299	0.12487	-0.06014	-0.20915	0.40753	-0.23321	-0.037782	0.24446	0.10079	0.25881	0.084798	-0.1717	-0.089058	0.034529	-0.026668	-0.054373	0.14915	-0.30902	-0.19297	0.036443	-0.077458	-0.1815	0.25818	-0.2489	-0.11874	0.13008	0.0054183	0.02217	0.29383	-0.15786	-0.026551	0.18492	0.0768	-0.0082453	0.084662	-0.088154	-0.037794	0.043001	0.001981	-0.011007	0.23785	-0.10444	-0.025277	0.1429	0.056066	0.14942	0.24831	-0.13053	-0.026479	0.15015	0.059502	0.038191	0.12909	-0.19646	-0.1118	0.043154	-0.034559	-0.17231	0.088884	-0.18048	-0.10536	0.024918	-0.038714	-0.060815	0.13568	-0.42229	-0.26404	0.0072286	-0.12716	-0.31689	0.26787	-0.35688	-0.20651	0.10383	-0.050615	-0.0098794	0.35682	-0.21218	-0.019012	0.24406	0.11206	0.15667	0.18388	-0.11505	-0.03771	0.1091	0.03683	-0.001343	0.45187	-0.14298	-0.011162	0.28458	0.13805	0.17703	0.35406	-0.26239	-0.10164	0.19656	0.050682	-0.045735	0.42946	-0.18081	-0.013594	0.27024	0.12761	0.25572
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24	0.19504	-0.1252	-0.052297	0.08584	0.015902	-0.030987	0.88195	0.14143	0.3	0.64515	0.47077	0.69086	0.48794	-0.50743	-0.24188	0.22482	-0.0057753	-0.1831	0.26953	-0.34401	-0.16759	0.092341	-0.041003	-0.049798	0.10134	-0.086028	-0.02895	0.050694	0.011015	0.019334	0.057523	-0.32947	-0.22894	-0.041727	-0.13447	-0.29943	0.23574	-0.23177	-0.11559	0.11463	-0.0032354	0.014006	0.22397	-0.15309	-0.063908	0.1139	0.025575	-0.021074	0.07895	-0.061063	-0.019955	0.04122	0.0098882	0.014769	0.13264	-0.15316	-0.086521	0.046045	-0.020838	-0.010459	0.18881	-0.11207	-0.035876	0.10409	0.035685	0.055097	0.16472	-0.10377	-0.038608	0.085409	0.022432	-0.028395	0.09072	-0.082235	-0.032652	0.04361	0.0049291	0.010646	0.066466	-0.34981	-0.22949	-0.019109	-0.12246	-0.30083	0.23191	-0.28439	-0.15849	0.08714	-0.038669	-0.03928	0.19021	-0.15112	-0.064203	0.091322	0.011138	0.028042	0.25061	-0.1093	-0.01994	0.14769	0.061346	0.046852	0.488	-0.235	-0.074113	0.27996	0.10556	0.17741	0.49853	-0.21524	-0.036967	0.31801	0.14101	0.078226	0.35767	-0.36074	-0.18642	0.14158	-0.019356	-0.065706
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34	0.12958	-0.13284	-0.051968	0.04912	-0.0018704	-0.06709	0.98261	0.22089	0.35874	0.70893	0.53133	0.81895	0.5134	-0.60461	-0.28482	0.23408	-0.019053	-0.19535	0.22178	-0.27657	-0.10193	0.09899	-0.002342	-0.020502	0.049637	-0.12452	-0.067328	0.0092497	-0.027699	-0.045269	0.09011	-0.32739	-0.20543	-0.0036233	-0.10307	-0.26935	0.23856	-0.26701	-0.15845	0.089786	-0.034476	-0.023871	0.15921	-0.13058	-0.057688	0.074302	0.0087695	-0.052037	0.054621	-0.065085	-0.026665	0.024319	-0.0012026	0.015965	0.090955	-0.17278	-0.095819	0.019272	-0.037793	-0.058447	0.17026	-0.10352	-0.034174	0.093652	0.02884	0.080852	0.11631	-0.10786	-0.052211	0.049499	-0.0019693	-0.037379	0.044137	-0.11731	-0.060791	0.006189	-0.026898	-0.05943	0.10947	-0.3153	-0.17156	0.031896	-0.069014	-0.21333	0.2072	-0.30002	-0.17695	0.056143	-0.058775	-0.096311	0.13739	-0.11781	-0.058206	0.066879	0.0058612	-0.023618	0.17285	-0.097197	-0.037405	0.074094	0.018143	-0.01228	0.40203	-0.15935	-0.046886	0.22536	0.090687	0.18403	0.44174	-0.18609	-0.021888	0.27734	0.12862	0.14625	0.24404	-0.21582	-0.088569	0.11838	0.01594	-0.020213
35	0.13233	-0.12629	-0.047214	0.051489	0.0011884	-0.061593	0.99116	0.21528	0.35842	0.71052	0.53248	0.82315	0.52231	-0.61961	-0.28784	0.23651	-0.019472	-0.19542	0.22466	-0.27568	-0.096759	0.099444	0.00056833	-0.01156	0.049892	-0.12158	-0.067833	0.0097779	-0.028491	-0.048669	0.093888	-0.32856	-0.20527	-0.0023144	-0.10176	-0.26875	0.23939	-0.27268	-0.16479	0.085038	-0.039559	-0.031874	0.16395	-0.12352	-0.052615	0.077491	0.012711	-0.042432	0.051721	-0.067633	-0.028252	0.022003	-0.0034683	0.012957	0.090495	-0.17103	-0.095234	0.020899	-0.037553	-0.059414	0.17253	-0.10402	-0.037392	0.091094	0.027183	0.081125	0.11048	-0.11064	-0.051363	0.048366	-0.0023727	-0.036995	0.043066	-0.11701	-0.059584	0.0063889	-0.026142	-0.061234	0.11094	-0.31275	-0.16937	0.032413	-0.067327	-0.2109	0.20355	-0.305	-0.18182	0.05242	-0.062588	-0.10472	0.14223	-0.11386	-0.052837	0.071728	0.010607	-0.014658	0.17119	-0.094742	-0.032857	0.074567	0.019736	-0.0074777	0.39487	-0.16621	-0.052057	0.21745	0.084973	0.17765	0.4388	-0.18582	-0.021568	0.27768	0.12628	0.15081	0.24665	-0.19602	-0.078617	0.11909	0.020534	-0.0028142
36	0.13512	-0.12264	-0.042546	0.053755	0.0044472	-0.055225	1.0038	0.21437	0.35821	0.71922	0.5334	0.82695	0.52523	-0.62721	-0.28955	0.2413	-0.019257	-0.19467	0.22727	-0.26579	-0.09297	0.10071	0.0022231	-0.0044432	0.050012	-0.12506	-0.066619	0.0094822	-0.028509	-0.050819	0.097115	-0.3324	-0.20317	-0.00090489	-0.10087	-0.26873	0.2373	-0.28125	-0.16889	0.080966	-0.044459	-0.040114	0.17104	-0.12262	-0.049137	0.080569	0.016542	-0.032185	0.049676	-0.069362	-0.030142	0.01916	-0.0055664	0.0099354	0.086833	-0.17096	-0.093992	0.021009	-0.037369	-0.060307	0.16932	-0.10632	-0.039148	0.08983	0.025321	0.080862	0.11287	-0.11078	-0.050441	0.046473	-0.0022152	-0.035654	0.042009	-0.11431	-0.056839	0.0080232	-0.024647	-0.061626	0.10936	-0.31764	-0.16828	0.033083	-0.066141	-0.20934	0.19926	-0.31067	-0.1863	0.048099	-0.066114	-0.113	0.15006	-0.1128	-0.048256	0.075413	0.014894	-0.0054369	0.16898	-0.0906	-0.02958	0.07477	0.021856	-0.0012327	0.39073	-0.17041	-0.056162	0.21409	0.079112	0.17111	0.44658	-0.18583	-0.025109	0.2755	0.12456	0.15581	0.24592	-0.18557	-0.072313	0.11836	0.023703	0.013025
37	0.13925	-0.11474	-0.038984	0.055131	0.0076945	-0.048341	1.0173	0.21571	0.35839	0.72091	0.53424	0.83063	0.53809	-0.64226	-0.29066	0.24855	-0.018422	-0.19304	0.22461	-0.25341	-0.091457	0.099312	0.0026451	0.00053652	0.051582	-0.12525	-0.065279	0.0096464	-0.027854	-0.051787	0.097514	-0.33921	-0.20305	0.00075481	-0.1003	-0.26916	0.23747	-0.28992	-0.17288	0.075632	-0.049063	-0.048429	0.17539	-0.11735	-0.045592	0.084986	0.020013	-0.021851	0.04705	-0.070257	-0.032457	0.017435	-0.0074296	0.0070381	0.082635	-0.17075	-0.093637	0.020597	-0.037285	-0.061206	0.16634	-0.11096	-0.040792	0.087707	0.02329	0.080086	0.11333	-0.11077	-0.048317	0.045693	-0.0015728	-0.033388	0.041965	-0.10861	-0.054852	0.0092353	-0.022561	-0.060755	0.10963	-0.31846	-0.1665	0.032819	-0.065299	-0.20843	0.19532	-0.31721	-0.19017	0.04436	-0.069238	-0.12098	0.1584	-0.10894	-0.04205	0.080279	0.018498	0.0034682	0.1692	-0.088106	-0.02597	0.076563	0.024245	0.0060533	0.38836	-0.17573	-0.059808	0.21261	0.073313	0.16475	0.44458	-0.18324	-0.029078	0.27578	0.12348	0.16135	0.2375	-0.18086	-0.068699	0.11956	0.025357	0.026701
38	0.14127	-0.11025	-0.03638	0.057715	0.010741	-0.041284	1.0238	0.21899	0.35867	0.72258	0.53515	0.83442	0.54701	-0.65553	-0.28973	0.25427	-0.017016	-0.19053	0.22149	-0.25756	-0.089566	0.096784	0.001922	0.0032269	0.0506	-0.12399	-0.062728	0.0099362	-0.026647	-0.051693	0.091694	-0.34223	-0.20495	0.0016321	-0.099943	-0.26986	0.23179	-0.30144	-0.17777	0.071684	-0.053287	-0.05668	0.17938	-0.11345	-0.041645	0.087014	0.022929	-0.011935	0.045272	-0.072244	-0.034579	0.015521	-0.0090114	0.004371	0.081808	-0.16856	-0.094186	0.020369	-0.037334	-0.062184	0.16264	-0.11533	-0.043259	0.085577	0.021139	0.078853	0.11347	-0.10869	-0.047606	0.047205	-0.00053749	-0.030293	0.045113	-0.10666	-0.051715	0.010627	-0.020047	-0.058825	0.10613	-0.32074	-0.16623	0.032913	-0.064675	-0.20795	0.19716	-0.31968	-0.19183	0.042712	-0.071883	-0.12852	0.16391	-0.10385	-0.038196	0.081838	0.021255	0.011537	0.16805	-0.084974	-0.022644	0.078425	0.02666	0.013965	0.38649	-0.18518	-0.068833	0.20691	0.06776	0.15885	0.44802	-0.18777	-0.030948	0.27711	0.12307	0.16748	0.23758	-0.17045	-0.067038	0.11697	0.025505	0.037801
39	0.14128	-0.1051	-0.034768	0.060455	0.013434	-0.034364	1.0265	0.21758	0.35516	0.72571	0.53623	0.83851	0.55825	-0.65766	-0.2906	0.26378	-0.015113	-0.18718	0.21566	-0.25732	-0.090507	0.092657	0.0002084	0.0036308	0.04883	-0.12277	-0.060558	0.010286	-0.025025	-0.050698	0.089623	-0.34495	-0.20601	0.0010239	-0.099689	-0.27069	0.22936	-0.30443	-0.18075	0.067302	-0.057072	-0.064752	0.1856	-0.11354	-0.04051	0.090071	0.025154	-0.0028685	0.044553	-0.074747	-0.036009	0.013528	-0.010283	0.0020189	0.083678	-0.17251	-0.095476	0.019386	-0.03753	-0.063281	0.1597	-0.11663	-0.04607	0.08248	0.018915	0.077214	0.11343	-0.10848	-0.044607	0.047883	0.00077683	-0.026516	0.046885	-0.10013	-0.047435	0.011875	-0.017276	-0.056064	0.10344	-0.31878	-0.16478	0.032496	-0.064131	-0.20768	0.19169	-0.32372	-0.1928	0.040895	-0.074015	-0.13553	0.16669	-0.10409	-0.03481	0.082584	0.023066	0.018357	0.16823	-0.08416	-0.020288	0.079729	0.028883	0.022098	0.38377	-0.19099	-0.074488	0.2021	0.06261	0.15368	0.44703	-0.19036	-0.031539	0.27586	0.12327	0.17422	0.2288	-0.16547	-0.067441	0.11614	0.024249	0.04611
40	0.14313	-0.097554	-0.031604	0.061928	0.015654	-0.027852	1.0276	0.2195	0.35583	0.72507	0.53756	0.84303	0.57339	-0.66694	-0.2944	0.26807	-0.012809	-0.18306	0.20974	-0.25939	-0.091762	0.088171	-0.002302	0.0018854	0.047545	-0.11952	-0.057156	0.011562	-0.023127	-0.048995	0.088656	-0.35139	-0.20616	0.0014171	-0.099421	-0.27147	0.22954	-0.30966	-0.18366	0.063862	-0.060388	-0.07255	0.18482	-0.11428	-0.038631	0.089493	0.026611	0.0050077	0.043164	-0.075811	-0.036745	0.012116	-0.011233	4.09E-05	0.086036	-0.17561	-0.095788	0.018333	-0.037863	-0.064505	0.16003	-0.11799	-0.048317	0.079526	0.016663	0.075223	0.1123	-0.10588	-0.042316	0.047756	0.0022595	-0.022227	0.048968	-0.093329	-0.043924	0.013424	-0.014411	-0.052717	0.10552	-0.31728	-0.16455	0.030467	-0.063543	-0.20741	0.18867	-0.32928	-0.19455	0.035544	-0.075621	-0.14197	0.16597	-0.10253	-0.033951	0.082041	0.023916	0.023647	0.16624	-0.081154	-0.01845	0.080573	0.030733	0.030078	0.37906	-0.19629	-0.07943	0.19852	0.057983	0.14942	0.45192	-0.1907	-0.032647	0.27811	0.12401	0.18153	0.22304	-0.16554	-0.067127	0.11068	0.021764	0.051593

Return to Figure 4

Figure 5A: Output and Real Rates: Conditional Comovements (Great Moderation) Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Periods	Green Total	Red MP	Blue N-Tech	Black I-Tech	Blue-label News	Black-label Rest
-8	-0.0614	-0.0065	-0.0403	-0.0354	0.0279	-0.0071
-7	0.065	-0.0053	0.0276	-0.04	0.0728	0.0099
-6	0.2044	-0.0033	0.0964	-0.0427	0.1187	0.0353
-5	0.349	-0.0002	0.1593	-0.042	0.1625	0.0694
-4	0.481	0.0038	0.2095	-0.0361	0.1983	0.1056
-3	0.575	0.0077	0.2418	-0.0245	0.2193	0.1307
-2	0.6074	0.0106	0.2529	-0.0086	0.22	0.1325
-1	0.5682	0.0117	0.2426	0.0082	0.1995	0.1062
0	0.467	0.0113	0.2133	0.0222	0.1611	0.0592
1	0.3292	0.0101	0.1699	0.031	0.1114	0.0068
2	0.1839	0.0089	0.1183	0.0345	0.0572	-0.035
3	0.0521	0.0081	0.0641	0.0345	0.0034	-0.058
4	-0.0588	0.0073	0.0117	0.0329	-0.047	-0.0637
5	-0.1513	0.0058	-0.0359	0.0307	-0.0918	-0.0602
6	-0.2296	0.0034	-0.0768	0.0277	-0.1288	-0.0552
7	-0.2937	0.0003	-0.1098	0.0233	-0.1554	-0.052
8	-0.339	-0.0029	-0.1341	0.0173	-0.1701	-0.0493

Return to Figure 5a

Figure 5B: Output and Real Rates: Conditional Comovements (Great Moderation) Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance

Periods	MP Light Band, 95%-ub	MP Light Band, 95%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	MP Mean, Solid line	MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	N-Tech Mean, Solid line	N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	I-Tech Mean, Solid line	I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	News Light Band, 95%-ub	News Light Band, 95%-lb	News Dark Band, 68%-lb	News Dark Band, 68%-ub	News Mean, Solid line	News VAR estimate, Dashed line	Total Light Band, 95%-ub	Total Light Band, 95%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-ub	Total Mean, Solid line	Total VAR estimate, Dashed line
-8	0.6316	-0.64031	-0.38526	0.35652	-0.0043513	-0.41668	0.60682	-0.73954	-0.52208	0.19836	-0.17016	-0.14867	0.60506	-0.79526	-0.57574	0.29542	-0.15164	-0.66313	0.63051	-0.68115	-0.4179	0.2707	-0.076899	0.12298	0.34058	-0.50639	-0.33781	0.091656	-0.12363	-0.069885
-7	0.6907	-0.6281	-0.3242	0.43609	0.075098	-0.34184	0.72964	-0.66963	-0.3694	0.38768	0.0022954	0.1016	0.71467	-0.76118	-0.51289	0.40476	-0.046882	-0.74951	0.7133	-0.61849	-0.28352	0.43851	0.077612	0.32157	0.47463	-0.39562	-0.21523	0.24116	0.013314	0.073908
-6	0.75431	-0.63243	-0.23628	0.54761	0.17181	-0.2149	0.82766	-0.57487	-0.18764	0.5641	0.19131	0.3554	0.80663	-0.72812	-0.42682	0.52776	0.076545	-0.80019	0.81558	-0.51077	-0.09831	0.60716	0.26137	0.52425	0.58344	-0.26541	-0.061935	0.40366	0.17066	0.23246
-5	0.83374	-0.60948	-0.11309	0.66601	0.29411	-0.014557	0.89396	-0.45014	0.042937	0.72652	0.38532	0.58709	0.87953	-0.67914	-0.29302	0.67141	0.21467	-0.78689	0.90084	-0.31847	0.1424	0.75681	0.45452	0.71733	0.70682	-0.12213	0.11763	0.55934	0.33998	0.39691
-4	0.90215	-0.52334	0.035984	0.77067	0.42571	0.24239	0.93349	-0.25006	0.28634	0.83427	0.56334	0.77223	0.92317	-0.61964	-0.12156	0.78239	0.35369	-0.6771	0.95068	-0.22111	0.37734	0.87014	0.61915	0.87555	0.81484	0.05483	0.29285	0.7008	0.49986	0.54707
-3	0.94629	-0.4423	0.15717	0.85332	0.52484	0.49819	0.95874	-0.10434	0.49893	0.90208	0.69583	0.89117	0.95259	-0.55276	0.037398	0.85903	0.46988	-0.45921	0.98046	-0.17402	0.47583	0.9349	0.71348	0.96818	0.87859	0.2012	0.43993	0.79223	0.61864	0.65399
-2	0.96408	-0.43695	0.14946	0.88485	0.5453	0.68284	0.97678	-0.08375	0.58578	0.93546	0.75419	0.93226	0.97115	-0.49927	0.12097	0.89745	0.53725	-0.16115	0.99002	-0.31053	0.4429	0.95798	0.71225	0.97166	0.90954	0.24682	0.49926	0.82489	0.6663	0.69088
-1	0.9564	-0.5413	-0.0085756	0.86091	0.46649	0.75534	0.96968	-0.18263	0.53607	0.92972	0.72427	0.89418	0.97536	-0.52172	0.10622	0.90723	0.53941	0.15406	0.98516	-0.50137	0.25834	0.94029	0.61997	0.88081	0.89546	0.18836	0.45987	0.80203	0.62926	0.6463
0	0.92596	-0.68102	-0.2247	0.79558	0.31051	0.72724	0.94298	-0.31399	0.36601	0.8721	0.61505	0.78626	0.95917	-0.58952	0.006166	0.88228	0.47804	0.41602	0.96074	-0.67011	0.0042168	0.86719	0.46801	0.7113	0.83959	0.040407	0.31807	0.72202	0.51839	0.53122
1	0.89268	-0.82951	-0.4458	0.68049	0.13208	0.65008	0.88796	-0.43871	0.14207	0.75978	0.45565	0.62626	0.93429	-0.69372	-0.15539	0.82163	0.37223	0.58058	0.90476	-0.74677	-0.21776	0.74029	0.29752	0.49193	0.75007	-0.13009	0.14182	0.59879	0.36437	0.37443
2	0.85287	-0.87369	-0.60089	0.53448	-0.012637	0.57644	0.8016	-0.5153	-0.050413	0.60531	0.28186	0.43595	0.89135	-0.73072	-0.26894	0.72639	0.24869	0.64663	0.82554	-0.77046	-0.35211	0.60107	0.13965	0.25249	0.65568	-0.30051	-0.039631	0.44979	0.20296	0.20916
3	0.81235	-0.84534	-0.6189	0.43663	-0.096773	0.52411	0.68682	-0.55546	-0.2017	0.43258	0.12084	0.23613	0.82484	-0.74616	-0.36746	0.60297	0.1294	0.64601	0.76132	-0.72866	-0.42756	0.43548	0.0056694	0.01497	0.53562	-0.41656	-0.18526	0.29922	0.059517	0.05923
4	0.77716	-0.82074	-0.59779	0.35561	-0.13189	0.46972	0.55991	-0.56482	-0.30888	0.2711	-0.016632	0.043109	0.75372	-0.77073	-0.44637	0.47837	0.024286	0.61593	0.67682	-0.73961	-0.49448	0.28096	-0.10864	-0.20739	0.41359	-0.50275	-0.29816	0.17134	-0.057793	-0.066929
5	0.76396	-0.80434	-0.5858	0.32476	-0.15126	0.37415	0.44778	-0.60933	-0.38743	0.1182	-0.13267	-0.13219	0.69242	-0.76093	-0.50943	0.37103	-0.067293	0.57511	0.59755	-0.7838	-0.56951	0.13714	-0.21046	-0.40528	0.30961	-0.55546	-0.38214	0.070679	-0.15356	-0.17213
6	0.75213	-0.82376	-0.59968	0.26637	-0.18202	0.2176	0.33442	-0.64273	-0.44932	-0.012203	-0.23229	-0.28297	0.64146	-0.79477	-0.55805	0.26733	-0.14915	0.51952	0.53044	-0.83091	-0.6509	0.026613	-0.29988	-0.5686	0.21137	-0.59879	-0.45263	-0.016757	-0.23463	-0.26119
7	0.69156	-0.85495	-0.63197	0.2242	-0.22731	0.016647	0.22773	-0.69957	-0.51697	-0.11512	-0.3154	-0.40471	0.59667	-0.80803	-0.6062	0.18163	-0.22138	0.43673	0.45928	-0.86282	-0.69956	-0.035041	-0.36918	-0.6864	0.13511	-0.65899	-0.50753	-0.09674	-0.30206	-0.33403
8	0.63441	-0.86656	-0.67902	0.17499	-0.26964	-0.18755	0.12789	-0.73712	-0.56173	-0.19625	-0.37619	-0.49413	0.53754	-0.83078	-0.64573	0.10746	-0.27892	0.32402	0.4032	-0.88239	-0.73561	-0.077378	-0.40967	-0.75093	0.077819	-0.70658	-0.5511	-0.14831	-0.35064	-0.38559

Return to Figure 5b

Figure 6A: Output and Real Rates: Conditional Comovements (Great Inflation) Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Periods	Green Total	Red MP	Blue N-Tech	Black I-Tech	Blue-label News	Pink Label Nom Trend	Black-label Rest
-8	0.1272	0.1361	0.0676	-0.0255	-0.0146	0.0226	0.3133
-7	0.1167	0.1245	0.0597	-0.0268	-0.0141	0.0196	0.2795
-6	0.1018	0.1067	0.0479	-0.0277	-0.0102	0.0149	0.2333
-5	0.0832	0.087	0.031	-0.0279	-0.0024	0.0104	0.1813
-4	0.0557	0.0626	0.0075	-0.0257	0.008	0.0073	0.1154
-3	0.0125	0.0237	-0.0225	-0.0186	0.0183	0.0049	0.0183
-2	-0.0489	-0.0376	-0.0555	-0.0039	0.0258	0.0005	-0.1196
-1	-0.1206	-0.1185	-0.085	0.0196	0.0291	-0.0082	-0.2837
0	-0.1856	-0.2012	-0.104	0.0499	0.0284	-0.0214	-0.4339
1	-0.2252	-0.2598	-0.108	0.0816	0.0252	-0.036	-0.5223
2	-0.2284	-0.2736	-0.0975	0.1069	0.0211	-0.0471	-0.5186
3	-0.1973	-0.2385	-0.0766	0.1189	0.0168	-0.0507	-0.4274
4	-0.1446	-0.1682	-0.0509	0.1137	0.012	-0.0455	-0.2836
5	-0.0863	-0.0856	-0.0248	0.0923	0.0063	-0.034	-0.132
6	-0.0328	-0.0099	-0.0004	0.0593	-0.0003	-0.0198	-0.0039
7	0.0127	0.0506	0.0219	0.021	-0.0071	-0.0062	0.0928
8	0.0521	0.0972	0.0414	-0.0165	-0.0134	0.0056	0.1665

Return to Figure 6a

Figure 6B: Output and Real Rates: Conditional Comovements (Great Inflation) Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance

Periods	MP Light Band, 95%-ub	MP Light Band, 95%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	MP Mean, Solid line	MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	N-Tech Mean, Solid line	N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	I-Tech Mean, Solid line	I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	News Light Band, 95%-ub	News Light Band, 95%-lb	News Dark Band, 68%-lb	News Dark Band, 68%-ub	News Mean, Solid line	News VAR estimate, Dashed line	Nom Trend Light Band, 95%-ub	Nom Trend Light Band, 95%-lb	Nom Trend Dark Band, 68%-lb	Nom Trend Dark Band, 68%-ub	Nom Trend Mean, Solid line	Nom Trend VAR estimate, Dashed line	Total Light Band, 95%-ub	Total Light Band, 95%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-ub	Total Mean, Solid line	Total VAR estimate, Dashed line
-8	0.747	-0.24721	0.056256	0.52793	0.29248	0.34119	0.80917	-0.63125	-0.37256	0.47231	0.051736	-0.30125	0.83851	-0.46439	-0.17083	0.53771	0.17077	-0.15234	0.8626	-0.1936	0.11664	0.68373	0.37866	0.60791	0.78536	-0.092152	0.16926	0.59861	0.38129	0.46588	0.68462	-0.13781	0.074828	0.51422	0.29406	0.31422
-7	0.73794	-0.27351	0.039472	0.50123	0.26871	0.29552	0.80852	-0.66597	-0.392	0.48507	0.048904	-0.29157	0.84881	-0.48542	-0.19515	0.52383	0.15789	-0.15973	0.83714	-0.27152	0.037338	0.65106	0.33318	0.53716	0.76867	-0.16302	0.12046	0.57429	0.34806	0.42615	0.65855	-0.16631	0.040875	0.49031	0.27219	0.2803
-6	0.69314	-0.31823	-0.013188	0.46358	0.2277	0.22467	0.79203	-0.66633	-0.40379	0.50112	0.048544	-0.21057	0.81339	-0.51688	-0.22209	0.50469	0.13468	-0.16545	0.81094	-0.36608	-0.045511	0.58645	0.27139	0.43082	0.73973	-0.24753	0.047609	0.52493	0.29472	0.36517	0.62481	-0.22171	0.013724	0.45493	0.2378	0.23398
-5	0.63699	-0.38367	-0.042999	0.41977	0.18758	0.15704	0.78985	-0.64729	-0.40737	0.52535	0.056011	-0.049227	0.75265	-0.56462	-0.23602	0.46988	0.10882	-0.16635	0.78838	-0.50944	-0.098351	0.53617	0.21844	0.27897	0.70884	-0.35584	-0.019846	0.49071	0.23937	0.29789	0.5861	-0.2793	-0.030328	0.41613	0.19764	0.18183
-4	0.6274	-0.45666	-0.10646	0.4117	0.15429	0.11062	0.82708	-0.63424	-0.40686	0.57192	0.067672	0.16518	0.72804	-0.57896	-0.27065	0.44595	0.079487	-0.15341	0.75819	-0.61114	-0.17077	0.48827	0.16971	0.067564	0.67867	-0.43745	-0.10368	0.45826	0.17711	0.21417	0.54413	-0.34449	-0.093386	0.37464	0.14271	0.11574
-3	0.65231	-0.53727	-0.21047	0.41247	0.11317	0.073647	0.87858	-0.6456	-0.41624	0.61288	0.073343	0.37779	0.73595	-0.61532	-0.31478	0.42156	0.039406	-0.11124	0.72479	-0.69964	-0.29384	0.46273	0.09006	-0.20238	0.68437	-0.5438	-0.23683	0.38861	0.078495	0.081286	0.48913	-0.44334	-0.19698	0.30559	0.053737	0.018335
-2	0.69001	-0.65272	-0.32981	0.37903	0.038348	0.0078149	0.88034	-0.68938	-0.42757	0.59125	0.064551	0.53255	0.74991	-0.69764	-0.37678	0.38708	-0.015426	-0.023484	0.71444	-0.80835	-0.4787	0.36426	-0.056499	-0.49949	0.61791	-0.68071	-0.41478	0.23913	-0.086576	-0.12875	0.37984	-0.55079	-0.33551	0.18025	-0.08039	-0.11994
-1	0.62526	-0.76881	-0.46522	0.28516	-0.085079	-0.12379	0.88623	-0.74267	-0.45605	0.57002	0.042359	0.59942	0.74217	-0.76631	-0.492	0.38497	-0.076506	0.11688	0.63795	-0.8947	-0.67686	0.17262	-0.2682	-0.76501	0.4642	-0.80551	-0.61686	-0.0084594	-0.31553	-0.40572	0.22921	-0.67578	-0.4868	-0.0033857	-0.24489	-0.28447
0	0.58862	-0.84239	-0.60315	0.13014	-0.24272	-0.32315	0.86692	-0.79562	-0.49871	0.56744	0.018307	0.58471	0.78208	-0.84317	-0.59835	0.36859	-0.12306	0.298	0.51388	-0.95712	-0.84433	-0.12575	-0.49033	-0.93548	0.22772	-0.91476	-0.79699	-0.31325	-0.55748	-0.68876	0.070964	-0.76437	-0.60939	-0.17815	-0.39754	-0.43512
1	0.54154	-0.91531	-0.7363	-0.013758	-0.39199	-0.54421	0.86907	-0.84592	-0.53491	0.58276	0.0071294	0.51923	0.80388	-0.89356	-0.66527	0.38953	-0.13361	0.48691	0.37125	-0.97673	-0.91999	-0.34085	-0.63976	-0.97199	-0.020338	-0.96578	-0.91685	-0.55629	-0.7316	-0.88922	-0.026639	-0.80694	-0.68116	-0.2894	-0.48761	-0.52375
2	0.52981	-0.94657	-0.83361	-0.098904	-0.484	-0.71255	0.86543	-0.84331	-0.54115	0.57736	0.016404	0.43463	0.79554	-0.89781	-0.65288	0.43699	-0.10112	0.63803	0.2703	-0.96388	-0.90693	-0.38164	-0.65445	-0.87706	-0.0532	-0.97246	-0.93106	-0.61087	-0.77041	-0.93648	-0.029546	-0.80628	-0.67456	-0.28122	-0.48369	-0.52009
3	0.53648	-0.93717	-0.84574	-0.084088	-0.49141	-0.76603	0.85038	-0.7977	-0.52728	0.59127	0.040877	0.34531	0.79393	-0.87188	-0.60084	0.49152	-0.040204	0.7094	0.39291	-0.9411	-0.82866	-0.24034	-0.53225	-0.68879	0.086532	-0.93648	-0.86064	-0.46325	-0.65866	-0.81632	0.075997	-0.75135	-0.59707	-0.17128	-0.39137	-0.42856
4	0.56769	-0.90864	-0.77841	-0.0068944	-0.42245	-0.68839	0.83214	-0.74005	-0.4871	0.59507	0.065724	0.24716	0.82374	-0.82148	-0.54206	0.5358	0.020123	0.67871	0.57198	-0.8904	-0.71313	0.065301	-0.33059	-0.45769	0.3525	-0.86714	-0.71618	-0.16337	-0.44065	-0.57585	0.21848	-0.66106	-0.4753	-0.0090718	-0.24855	-0.28437
5	0.58704	-0.85388	-0.67777	0.11788	-0.31179	-0.51343	0.82293	-0.6983	-0.45297	0.57749	0.076211	0.13053	0.81841	-0.7933	-0.49607	0.58074	0.05337	0.55082	0.70752	-0.81841	-0.58252	0.31728	-0.12821	-0.223	0.60202	-0.76165	-0.52843	0.15373	-0.19176	-0.29302	0.3622	-0.55909	-0.3334	0.14372	-0.10221	-0.13236
6	0.63226	-0.784	-0.56295	0.20633	-0.19649	-0.29925	0.79797	-0.68992	-0.43418	0.56831	0.06656	-0.0052153	0.79358	-0.75133	-0.46277	0.5616	0.05046	0.35363	0.73118	-0.75152	-0.42978	0.44401	0.02183	-0.003214	0.7225	-0.64718	-0.34087	0.38853	0.024279	-0.033932	0.46067	-0.44951	-0.21294	0.25167	0.016228	-0.0039145
7	0.6572	-0.73452	-0.4637	0.29244	-0.095304	-0.093615	0.78866	-0.67827	-0.43164	0.53795	0.041887	-0.14707	0.74562	-0.73824	-0.46476	0.50294	0.022311	0.12545	0.71983	-0.66359	-0.29774	0.48405	0.11412	0.19694	0.75013	-0.52389	-0.16561	0.53048	0.18249	0.17305	0.51532	-0.35328	-0.12092	0.31832	0.10089	0.093074
8	0.67548	-0.6747	-0.36785	0.36608	-0.0056151	0.084949	0.77291	-0.66828	-0.4501	0.47538	0.012741	-0.27547	0.7177	-0.71652	-0.47246	0.43873	-0.010499	-0.098533	0.73333	-0.59042	-0.19704	0.52144	0.17636	0.37289	0.77346	-0.42479	-0.0098169	0.59339	0.29296	0.33278	0.56259	-0.26253	-0.047586	0.37004	0.16277	0.16701

Return to Figure 6b

Figure A.7: BC-Moments: Filtered VAR versus Data (Large VAR, Full Sample)

Periods	Thick Blue cov(y,t; y,t-k)	Thin Red cov(y,t; y,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(y,t; i,t-k)	Thin Red cor(y,t; i,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(y,t; r,t-k)	Thin Red cor(y,t; r,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(y,t; pi,t-k)	Thin Red cor(y,t; pi,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(y,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cor(y,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(y,t; i,t-k)	Thin Red cov(y,t; i,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(i,t; i,t-k)	Thin Red cov(i,t; i,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(i,t; r,t-k)	Thin Red cor(i,t; r,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(i,t; pi,t-k)	Thin Red cor(i,t; pi,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(i,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cor(i,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(y,t; r,t-k)	Thin Red cov(y,t; r,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(i,t; r,t-k)	Thin Red cov(i,t; r,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(r,t; r,t-k)	Thin Red cov(r,t; r,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(r,t; pi,t-k)	Thin Red cor(r,t; pi,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(r,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cor(r,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(y,t; pi,t-k)	Thin Red cov(y,t; pi,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(i,t; h,pi-k)	Thin Red cov(i,t; h,pi-k)	Thick Blue cov(r,t; h,pi-k)	Thin Red cov(r,t; h,pi-k)	Thick Blue cov(pi,t; h,pi-k)	Thin Red cov(pi,t; h,pi-k)	Thick Blue cor(pi,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cor(pi,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(y,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cov(y,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(i,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cov(i,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(r,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cov(r,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(pi,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cov(pi,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(h,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cov(h,t; h,t-k)
-8	-1.0634	-0.74729	0.69546	0.21555	0.4124	0.12406	0.60494	0.28102	-0.6567	-0.82738	0.29305	0.10577	-0.81978	-0.88886	0.26841	0.12952	-0.96858	-1.0882	-1.72	-1.6311	0.24987	0.083864	0.18359	0.092047	-0.32516	-0.31161	-0.4517	-0.49695	-0.41556	-0.39379	0.25331	0.13381	-0.45785	-0.54475	-0.30702	-0.34273	-0.79686	-0.95265	-1.6168	-1.4626	-0.21843	-0.33032	-0.64583	-0.68461	-0.22437	-0.2277	-0.60328	-0.59574	-1.3631	-1.1687
-7	-0.68663	-0.58878	0.95249	0.41501	0.33238	0.098384	0.92404	0.537	-0.15499	-0.48582	0.40136	0.20364	-0.55761	-0.69183	0.37559	0.23847	-0.76375	-0.91222	-1.653	-1.6676	0.20139	0.066508	0.2569	0.16947	-0.24004	-0.27651	-0.52229	-0.54827	-0.53505	-0.59846	0.38693	0.25571	-0.36103	-0.45666	-0.355	-0.37813	-0.51926	-0.68037	-1.4971	-1.3706	-0.051554	-0.19395	-0.6207	-0.69991	-0.28889	-0.34605	-0.55861	-0.55824	-0.85704	-0.81914
-6	-0.25714	-0.33742	1.1644	0.64807	0.24646	0.099883	1.1936	0.78969	0.39367	-0.022969	0.49067	0.31799	-0.27111	-0.41137	0.45798	0.35693	-0.51779	-0.6469	-1.4909	-1.5472	0.14933	0.067521	0.31326	0.25367	-0.16531	-0.2063	-0.56623	-0.55361	-0.6502	-0.74544	0.49979	0.37603	-0.24476	-0.32384	-0.38487	-0.38181	-0.23966	-0.38858	-1.2764	-1.1744	0.13094	-0.0091698	-0.55984	-0.64938	-0.35106	-0.43104	-0.47627	-0.47836	-0.27709	-0.35544
-5	0.23917	0.031136	1.3431	0.89886	0.18053	0.12033	1.4104	1.0294	0.98699	0.53581	0.56594	0.44105	0.06631	-0.044461	0.55168	0.49442	-0.22605	-0.312	-1.2039	-1.2583	0.10938	0.081344	0.37735	0.35138	-0.068475	-0.080687	-0.58693	-0.52926	-0.74682	-0.81691	0.59059	0.49016	-0.10685	-0.15619	-0.39894	-0.36502	0.072459	-0.059097	-0.93202	-0.86599	0.32829	0.21391	-0.45207	-0.52813	-0.40323	-0.47237	-0.34777	-0.35272	0.38334	0.2186
-4	0.8176	0.51591	1.492	1.1305	0.13937	0.13833	1.571	1.2324	1.6046	1.1358	0.62871	0.55473	0.49327	0.41012	0.68265	0.6529	0.12646	0.073712	-0.75836	-0.80407	0.084445	0.093512	0.46693	0.46401	0.099498	0.12191	-0.58493	-0.49469	-0.78482	-0.79583	0.65781	0.58683	0.059776	0.036901	-0.39758	-0.34118	0.47422	0.35841	-0.45194	-0.44276	0.53373	0.45344	-0.28476	-0.33748	-0.42374	-0.46018	-0.16863	-0.18034	1.1278	0.88692
-3	1.4548	1.0713	1.5836	1.2859	0.098193	0.12467	1.6564	1.3589	2.1848	1.6934	0.66728	0.63097	1.0094	0.92475	0.83258	0.80824	0.53977	0.48919	-0.1547	-0.21561	0.059495	0.084278	0.56948	0.57441	0.35842	0.39682	-0.5532	-0.45692	-0.71867	-0.67223	0.6936	0.64708	0.25515	0.24489	-0.37601	-0.31513	0.9841	0.88179	0.13755	0.073698	0.7267	0.67608	-0.058088	-0.090494	-0.38803	-0.38871	0.051325	0.030018	1.9177	1.5991
-2	2.064	1.6042	1.5579	1.3009	0.016743	0.053731	1.6305	1.3631	2.6254	2.1102	0.65645	0.63832	1.5395	1.4238	0.9344	0.90798	0.97596	0.89903	0.54305	0.43665	0.010145	0.036322	0.63913	0.64529	0.66431	0.69426	-0.47856	-0.40383	-0.53168	-0.45667	0.68275	0.64906	0.46134	0.45006	-0.32528	-0.27851	1.5306	1.4413	0.76125	0.624	0.87325	0.84246	0.20391	0.18327	-0.28706	-0.26406	0.28405	0.25416	2.6506	2.2588
-1	2.5129	1.9955	1.353	1.129	-0.13104	-0.083264	1.455	1.211	2.8177	2.2988	0.57012	0.55396	1.9478	1.796	0.90715	0.89325	1.359	1.2462	1.2136	1.0486	-0.079398	-0.056287	0.62049	0.63482	0.91784	0.92946	-0.34996	-0.31257	-0.25844	-0.18867	0.60926	0.57667	0.64238	0.62385	-0.23787	-0.21557	1.9632	1.8861	1.3144	1.1203	0.93723	0.91777	0.45569	0.44013	-0.13953	-0.1091	0.49046	0.4563	3.1798	2.7396
0	2.679	2.1426	0.94838	0.76725	-0.33265	-0.26994	1.1157	0.90125	2.6969	2.2153	0.39963	0.37647	2.1022	1.9385	0.70905	0.73357	1.6028	1.4635	1.7235	1.5111	-0.20155	-0.18248	0.48499	0.52133	1.0168	1.0213	-0.16884	-0.16816	0.024503	0.07091	0.46718	0.42915	0.75766	0.73266	-0.11476	-0.11597	2.1289	2.0584	1.7043	1.4773	0.89705	0.88441	0.64715	0.63422	0.01323	0.041003	0.63592	0.60174	3.3738	2.9283
1	2.5129	1.9955	0.3917	0.26244	-0.53684	-0.47155	0.64105	0.47031	2.278	1.8659	0.16505	0.12877	1.9478	1.796	0.3707	0.44085	1.6524	1.4938	1.9861	1.7289	-0.32527	-0.31877	0.25356	0.31331	0.91784	0.92946	0.045658	0.014425	0.23743	0.24704	0.26843	0.22395	0.78108	0.74779	0.031034	0.0099486	1.9632	1.8861	1.8879	1.6389	0.75772	0.74493	0.74576	0.72567	0.1282	0.14285	0.70443	0.66752	3.1798	2.7396
2	2.064	1.6042	-0.21262	-0.28337	-0.67983	-0.63523	0.09944	-0.0015064	1.653	1.3521	-0.089592	-0.13904	1.5395	1.4238	-0.016751	0.091419	1.5097	1.3423	1.9969	1.7141	-0.41191	-0.42942	-0.011458	0.06497	0.66431	0.69426	0.26106	0.20981	0.34062	0.32638	0.041639	-0.00071731	0.71365	0.67197	0.17744	0.1447	1.5306	1.4413	1.883	1.6245	0.54984	0.53982	0.74982	0.71944	0.18391	0.18873	0.70261	0.66168	2.6506	2.2588
3	1.4548	1.0713	-0.74841	-0.77144	-0.72032	-0.72828	-0.42482	-0.43203	0.94962	0.78029	-0.31536	-0.37853	1.0094	0.92475	-0.35118	-0.23591	1.2294	1.0589	1.8231	1.5199	-0.43644	-0.49232	-0.24021	-0.16766	0.35842	0.39682	0.44363	0.38226	0.3522	0.32438	-0.17789	-0.20572	0.58113	0.53007	0.30154	0.26363	0.9841	0.88179	1.7455	1.4731	0.31586	0.31152	0.68458	0.63792	0.19016	0.18757	0.65129	0.59999	1.9177	1.5991
4	0.8176	0.51591	-1.1378	-1.1306	-0.65973	-0.73973	-0.86273	-0.76291	0.27729	0.2416	-0.47946	-0.55474	0.49327	0.41012	-0.57212	-0.48536	0.88639	0.7169	1.5572	1.2272	-0.39973	-0.50006	-0.39133	-0.34494	0.099498	0.12191	0.571	0.50559	0.32913	0.28477	-0.36125	-0.36328	0.419	0.35889	0.38811	0.34869	0.47422	0.35841	1.5314	1.2289	0.092233	0.096456	0.58471	0.51508	0.1777	0.16467	0.57142	0.50055	1.1278	0.88692
5	0.23917	0.031136	-1.365	-1.3334	-0.53479	-0.6768	-1.1803	-0.97498	-0.3065	-0.21075	-0.5752	-0.65429	0.06631	-0.044461	-0.6811	-0.64051	0.54004	0.37869	1.2662	0.90587	-0.32403	-0.45752	-0.46587	-0.4552	-0.068475	-0.080687	0.63786	0.5724	0.3263	0.25182	-0.49423	-0.46426	0.25528	0.18957	0.43355	0.39477	0.072459	-0.059097	1.2703	0.92489	-0.10195	-0.084139	0.47546	0.38021	0.17617	0.14561	0.47398	0.37672	0.38334	0.2186
6	-0.25714	-0.33742	-1.4619	-1.3904	-0.3906	-0.55353	-1.3774	-1.0831	-0.79418	-0.56196	-0.61601	-0.68225	-0.27111	-0.41137	-0.72042	-0.71387	0.21619	0.073938	0.97065	0.59293	-0.23666	-0.37419	-0.49276	-0.50733	-0.16531	-0.2063	0.65231	0.5905	0.36297	0.2465	-0.57677	-0.51572	0.10219	0.037014	0.44338	0.40725	-0.23966	-0.38858	0.96438	0.58224	-0.26416	-0.22435	0.36447	0.24886	0.19598	0.14253	0.35984	0.23715	-0.27709	-0.35544
7	-0.68663	-0.58878	-1.4713	-1.3296	-0.25457	-0.38137	-1.471	-1.1163	-1.1993	-0.81931	-0.61999	-0.65238	-0.55761	-0.69183	-0.73163	-0.72286	-0.084894	-0.19522	0.65822	0.29721	-0.15424	-0.2578	-0.50043	-0.51373	-0.24004	-0.27651	0.62665	0.5712	0.4184	0.26136	-0.61597	-0.53156	-0.04013	-0.09773	0.42594	0.39394	-0.51926	-0.68037	0.6097	0.22065	-0.39891	-0.32709	0.24716	0.12475	0.2259	0.15113	0.2275	0.089873	-0.85704	-0.81914
8	-1.0634	-0.74729	-1.4168	-1.178	-0.12895	-0.16865	-1.477	-1.099	-1.5267	-0.99314	-0.59703	-0.57802	-0.81978	-0.88886	-0.72687	-0.67441	-0.36687	-0.4343	0.3168	0.019938	-0.078133	-0.11401	-0.49718	-0.4793	-0.32516	-0.31161	0.56958	0.51885	0.45469	0.27433	-0.61848	-0.52333	-0.17342	-0.21741	0.38714	0.35784	-0.79686	-0.95265	0.21747	-0.13236	-0.50781	-0.3965	0.11896	0.0083682	0.2455	0.15863	0.081144	-0.05391	-1.3631	-1.1687

Return to Figure 7

Figure A.8: BC-Moments: Filtered VAR versus Data (Large VAR, Great Moderation)

Periods	Thick Blue cov(y,t; y,t-k)	Thin Red cov(y,t; y,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(y,t; i,t-k)	Thin Red cor(y,t; i,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(y,t; r,t-k)	Thin Red cor(y,t; r,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(y,t; pi,t-k)	Thin Red cor(y,t; pi,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(y,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cor(y,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(y,t; i,t-k)	Thin Red cov(y,t; i,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(i,t; i,t-k)	Thin Red cov(i,t; i,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(i,t; r,t-k)	Thin Red cor(i,t; r,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(i,t; pi,t-k)	Thin Red cor(i,t; pi,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(i,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cor(i,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(y,t; r,t-k)	Thin Red cov(y,t; r,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(i,t; r,t-k)	Thin Red cov(i,t; r,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(r,t; r,t-k)	Thin Red cov(r,t; r,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(r,t; pi,t-k)	Thin Red cor(r,t; pi,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(r,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cor(r,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(y,t; pi,t-k)	Thin Red cov(y,t; pi,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(i,t; h,pi-k)	Thin Red cov(i,t; h,pi-k)	Thick Blue cov(r,t; h,pi-k)	Thin Red cov(r,t; h,pi-k)	Thick Blue cov(pi,t; h,pi-k)	Thin Red cov(pi,t; h,pi-k)	Thick Blue cor(pi,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cor(pi,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(y,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cov(y,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(i,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cov(i,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(r,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cov(r,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(pi,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cov(pi,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(h,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cov(h,t; h,t-k)
-8	-0.33407	-0.23549	-0.083058	0.015425	-0.061443	0.040106	0.014985	0.0047392	-0.3518	-0.36347	-0.077018	0.015683	-0.57192	-0.4307	-0.37253	-0.26089	-0.15647	-0.20546	-0.8187	-0.77987	-0.069885	0.044464	-0.30672	-0.25813	-0.33725	-0.28371	-0.12527	-0.28092	-0.65479	-0.68342	0.019822	0.0059878	-0.14984	-0.23167	-0.14715	-0.34538	-0.067197	-0.08826	-0.41948	-0.41291	-0.26415	-0.26746	-0.44498	-0.51215	-0.43654	-0.48936	-0.32527	-0.33695	-0.8964	-0.50937
-7	-0.23011	-0.13513	0.068984	0.17253	0.06498	0.17224	0.049244	0.041926	-0.1395	-0.13257	0.063967	0.17543	-0.33317	-0.28426	-0.18928	-0.12975	-0.084893	-0.11242	-0.56961	-0.63878	0.073908	0.19096	-0.15585	-0.12837	-0.21686	-0.17391	-0.068552	-0.18555	-0.49049	-0.61361	0.065142	0.052972	-0.081294	-0.12676	-0.080522	-0.22812	-0.060856	-0.0096578	-0.3751	-0.2919	-0.10474	-0.097549	-0.3096	-0.41949	-0.32701	-0.43937	-0.29085	-0.2382	-0.50346	-0.15435
-6	-0.10401	-0.017952	0.22918	0.33578	0.20438	0.32053	0.080977	0.088115	0.10117	0.12974	0.21251	0.34141	-0.063869	-0.10445	0.016893	0.021085	-0.016965	-0.036653	-0.27213	-0.43877	0.23246	0.35535	0.013909	0.020862	-0.095918	-0.070384	-0.0013152	-0.072418	-0.29258	-0.49324	0.10712	0.11133	-0.016246	-0.04133	-0.0015448	-0.089035	-0.13758	-0.025229	-0.29482	-0.16184	0.075962	0.09547	-0.14791	-0.28815	-0.19506	-0.35318	-0.22861	-0.13207	-0.053959	0.23592
-5	0.046444	0.12374	0.39014	0.49071	0.34897	0.46105	0.11932	0.15645	0.36053	0.40946	0.36177	0.49895	0.23426	0.1058	0.25426	0.20366	0.038159	0.005526	0.063401	-0.18854	0.39691	0.51114	0.20935	0.20151	0.042242	0.044102	0.044858	0.005952	-0.06825	-0.32541	0.15784	0.19767	0.036542	0.0062311	0.052691	0.0073178	-0.23217	-0.1104	-0.16515	-0.032335	0.2707	0.3013	0.03446	-0.12381	-0.045502	-0.23301	-0.12805	-0.026386	0.43709	0.63623
-4	0.22279	0.29501	0.54	0.61882	0.48098	0.56521	0.17224	0.24488	0.62223	0.68475	0.50073	0.6292	0.55883	0.34495	0.52232	0.42151	0.088849	0.029852	0.42452	0.10251	0.54707	0.62662	0.43006	0.41705	0.2249	0.1994	0.052084	0.023181	0.1808	-0.11122	0.22784	0.3094	0.085082	0.033661	0.061178	0.0285	-0.22616	-0.15417	0.015034	0.10514	0.46719	0.50387	0.23074	0.067317	0.12054	-0.079638	0.011657	0.085797	0.94925	1.0314
-3	0.41555	0.48802	0.66034	0.70222	0.57499	0.61046	0.23679	0.33319	0.85985	0.92652	0.61232	0.714	0.89266	0.6013	0.7957	0.65311	0.15681	0.075583	0.79129	0.41943	0.65399	0.67679	0.65515	0.6462	0.45991	0.40923	0.036427	0.0043114	0.45246	0.14551	0.31323	0.42097	0.15016	0.085227	0.042788	0.0053007	-0.040278	-0.04521	0.2236	0.26178	0.64561	0.68177	0.43009	0.27545	0.30166	0.10419	0.17338	0.21362	1.4467	1.4081
-2	0.59804	0.67647	0.72901	0.72754	0.60742	0.58758	0.29535	0.39061	1.0392	1.1045	0.676	0.73975	1.1955	0.84363	1.0232	0.85021	0.25903	0.17646	1.132	0.73671	0.69088	0.65142	0.84244	0.84122	0.7129	0.64596	0.042009	0.011396	0.73362	0.43021	0.39071	0.49352	0.24805	0.19897	0.049344	0.014011	0.2867	0.22917	0.4178	0.42364	0.78028	0.81271	0.61526	0.4838	0.4891	0.30805	0.32396	0.3457	1.8744	1.7415
-1	0.73146	0.8196	0.72803	0.68845	0.56823	0.503	0.32216	0.39338	1.1276	1.1949	0.67509	0.7	1.4112	1.0252	1.147	0.95638	0.38849	0.32946	1.4051	1.0188	0.6463	0.55765	0.94438	0.94626	0.91337	0.84298	0.10908	0.099017	0.99328	0.71357	0.42617	0.49702	0.37202	0.3715	0.12813	0.12174	0.60184	0.54433	0.55159	0.5483	0.84661	0.87927	0.7637	0.66906	0.66222	0.51094	0.4277	0.44743	2.1675	1.9895
0	0.78067	0.87773	0.65239	0.58903	0.46705	0.37623	0.29702	0.33806	1.1059	1.1893	0.60495	0.59892	1.4898	1.102	1.1319	0.93623	0.50924	0.48872	1.5693	1.2288	0.53122	0.41711	0.93199	0.92632	0.99015	0.92694	0.23874	0.26759	1.1871	0.9548	0.39291	0.42713	0.48765	0.55108	0.28043	0.32899	0.73199	0.7137	0.59784	0.59166	0.83034	0.87511	0.85295	0.80697	0.79146	0.68368	0.46356	0.48282	2.2722	2.1041
1	0.73146	0.8196	0.51407	0.43838	0.3292	0.22121	0.21753	0.25077	0.97732	1.0821	0.47669	0.44573	1.4112	1.0252	0.98492	0.78447	0.57233	0.553	1.5971	1.2943	0.37443	0.24525	0.81094	0.77617	0.91337	0.84298	0.38268	0.44284	1.2732	1.0757	0.28776	0.31684	0.54807	0.62355	0.4495	0.54445	0.60184	0.54433	0.56104	0.52285	0.73381	0.79627	0.86809	0.84997	0.84887	0.77024	0.43503	0.42666	2.1675	1.9895
2	0.59804	0.67647	0.33816	0.27118	0.1839	0.081562	0.10153	0.13718	0.7664	0.91399	0.31357	0.27573	1.1955	0.84363	0.75123	0.56951	0.54325	0.51993	1.4853	1.2638	0.20916	0.090423	0.61854	0.56348	0.7129	0.64596	0.46879	0.51923	1.2305	1.0874	0.13431	0.17333	0.52022	0.58627	0.55065	0.63837	0.2867	0.22917	0.47188	0.44252	0.57544	0.67255	0.80732	0.82992	0.82034	0.77863	0.3659	0.36111	1.8744	1.7415
3	0.41555	0.48802	0.15316	0.10718	0.052075	-0.036003	-0.021702	0.033603	0.50945	0.7071	0.14202	0.10898	0.89266	0.6013	0.48994	0.3427	0.4224	0.417	1.2554	1.1587	0.05923	-0.039915	0.4034	0.33907	0.45991	0.40923	0.4461	0.46997	1.0681	1.0142	-0.028709	0.042456	0.40449	0.4702	0.52399	0.57782	-0.040278	-0.04521	0.36792	0.38751	0.38251	0.52031	0.68234	0.76091	0.71209	0.72621	0.28528	0.31622	1.4467	1.4081
4	0.22279	0.29501	-0.018927	-0.043639	-0.058844	-0.13948	-0.12552	-0.039111	0.24165	0.47701	-0.017551	-0.044371	0.55883	0.34495	0.24536	0.13608	0.24482	0.29637	0.94485	0.99883	-0.066929	-0.15464	0.20202	0.13464	0.2249	0.1994	0.31692	0.33705	0.82082	0.89099	-0.16604	-0.049416	0.23445	0.33418	0.37226	0.41439	-0.22616	-0.15417	0.27362	0.35476	0.18144	0.35101	0.51355	0.65594	0.54724	0.63799	0.21216	0.2895	0.94925	1.0314
5	0.046444	0.12374	-0.16701	-0.17955	-0.15134	-0.23846	-0.19617	-0.084753	-0.011889	0.23591	-0.15487	-0.18256	0.23426	0.1058	0.032915	-0.043542	0.059963	0.19224	0.59401	0.79297	-0.17213	-0.26437	0.027101	-0.043081	0.042242	0.044102	0.1336	0.19292	0.53266	0.74092	-0.2595	-0.10708	0.057421	0.21676	0.15693	0.23719	-0.23217	-0.1104	0.19259	0.30891	-0.0089269	0.17359	0.32286	0.52075	0.35512	0.53053	0.14934	0.25208	0.43709	0.63623
6	-0.10401	-0.017952	-0.28873	-0.3	-0.22963	-0.33132	-0.234	-0.12277	-0.23757	-0.0004322	-0.26773	-0.30503	-0.063869	-0.10445	-0.154	-0.20233	-0.093872	0.09934	0.2359	0.5436	-0.26119	-0.36732	-0.1268	-0.20018	-0.095918	-0.070384	-0.036299	0.08768	0.24024	0.56674	-0.30955	-0.15511	-0.089893	0.11201	-0.042637	0.1078	-0.13758	-0.025229	0.11482	0.21587	-0.17838	-0.00031803	0.12822	0.35699	0.16016	0.40581	0.08903	0.17615	-0.053959	0.23592
7	-0.23011	-0.13513	-0.38461	-0.39861	-0.29368	-0.40149	-0.24706	-0.16877	-0.42883	-0.20971	-0.35664	-0.4053	-0.33317	-0.28426	-0.3254	-0.34166	-0.20352	-0.0082402	-0.10681	0.25999	-0.33403	-0.44511	-0.26792	-0.33804	-0.21686	-0.17391	-0.14972	0.022666	-0.035005	0.36054	-0.32683	-0.21323	-0.1949	-0.0092915	-0.17586	0.027867	-0.060856	-0.0096578	0.03094	0.072607	-0.32198	-0.15431	-0.058054	0.17074	-0.023338	0.25816	0.02399	0.05925	-0.50346	-0.15435
8	-0.33407	-0.23549	-0.4537	-0.46198	-0.33901	-0.4255	-0.24319	-0.22328	-0.5808	-0.36816	-0.4207	-0.46973	-0.57192	-0.4307	-0.48001	-0.45172	-0.27684	-0.14236	-0.41877	-0.032731	-0.38559	-0.47173	-0.39522	-0.44694	-0.33725	-0.28371	-0.20512	-0.034082	-0.28372	0.12327	-0.3217	-0.28211	-0.2651	-0.16053	-0.24093	-0.041903	-0.067197	-0.08826	-0.058062	-0.086728	-0.43608	-0.27091	-0.22761	-0.021495	-0.18915	0.088269	-0.045021	-0.070773	-0.8964	-0.50937

Return to Figure 8

Figure A.9: BC-Moments: Filtered VAR versus Data (Large VAR, Great Inflation)

Periods	Thick Blue cov(y,t; y,t-k)	Thin Red cov(y,t; y,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(y,t; i,t-k)	Thin Red cor(y,t; i,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(y,t; r,t-k)	Thin Red cor(y,t; r,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(y,t; pi,t-k)	Thin Red cor(y,t; pi,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(y,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cor(y,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(y,t; i,t-k)	Thin Red cov(y,t; i,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(i,t; i,t-k)	Thin Red cov(i,t; i,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(i,t; r,t-k)	Thin Red cor(i,t; r,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(i,t; pi,t-k)	Thin Red cor(i,t; pi,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(i,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cor(i,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(y,t; r,t-k)	Thin Red cov(y,t; r,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(i,t; r,t-k)	Thin Red cov(i,t; r,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(r,t; r,t-k)	Thin Red cov(r,t; r,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(r,t; pi,t-k)	Thin Red cor(r,t; pi,t-k)	Thick Blue cor(r,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cor(r,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(y,t; pi,t-k)	Thin Red cov(y,t; pi,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(i,t; h,pi-k)	Thin Red cov(i,t; h,pi-k)	Thick Blue cov(r,t; h,pi-k)	Thin Red cov(r,t; h,pi-k)	Thick Blue cov(pi,t; h,pi-k)	Thin Red cov(pi,t; h,pi-k)	Thick Blue cor(pi,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cor(pi,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(y,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cov(y,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(i,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cov(i,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(r,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cov(r,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(pi,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cov(pi,t; h,t-k)	Thick Blue cov(h,t; h,t-k)	Thin Red cov(h,t; h,t-k)
-8	-2.5207	-1.4636	0.53092	-0.45244	0.31333	0.046077	0.84155	-0.035572	-1.5648	-1.6264	0.15758	-0.17345	-1.2478	-1.7311	0.20482	0.03393	-1.246	-1.852	-2.6593	-1.9274	0.31422	0.072879	0.28031	0.057921	-0.059053	-0.013174	-0.12967	-0.22679	0.030876	0.011512	0.23118	-0.012807	-0.46713	-0.71965	-0.16425	-0.36359	-1.5406	-1.7955	-2.9658	-1.8739	-0.31803	-0.52234	-0.73762	-0.6681	0.028936	0.016464	-0.76137	-0.61003	-2.8876	-1.9607
-7	-1.8679	-1.3227	1.13	0.04989	0.27951	0.044758	1.4889	0.57497	-0.61343	-1.1963	0.33538	0.019126	-0.93558	-1.5778	0.24391	0.053071	-0.86558	-1.545	-2.6031	-2.2725	0.2803	0.070793	0.33381	0.090597	-0.048739	-0.027095	-0.19352	-0.20042	-0.071943	-0.061655	0.40902	0.20701	-0.32451	-0.60037	-0.24513	-0.32132	-1.1458	-1.5916	-2.991	-2.2494	-0.12467	-0.3842	-0.72203	-0.7877	-0.067421	-0.088176	-0.76785	-0.73228	-2.104	-1.8666
-6	-1.016	-0.95939	1.7001	0.65022	0.23333	0.065237	2.0764	1.1795	0.47311	-0.48632	0.50461	0.24927	-0.55469	-1.2143	0.25337	0.067722	-0.38628	-1.0163	-2.3424	-2.3271	0.23398	0.10318	0.34677	0.11561	-0.049008	-0.042075	-0.24615	-0.16696	-0.19728	-0.13511	0.57039	0.42464	-0.14482	-0.39491	-0.31179	-0.26767	-0.64305	-1.1639	-2.752	-2.3635	0.096157	-0.15619	-0.64972	-0.80663	-0.18488	-0.19323	-0.70647	-0.76942	-1.0948	-1.4604
-5	0.015546	-0.3775	2.205	1.2598	0.18132	0.09675	2.546	1.7004	1.6362	0.41294	0.65447	0.48296	-0.09148	-0.65108	0.25056	0.090123	0.17703	-0.31938	-1.8535	-2.0483	0.18183	0.15303	0.34291	0.15385	-0.048071	-0.049308	-0.28427	-0.14264	-0.34056	-0.19938	0.6994	0.61221	0.06637	-0.1241	-0.36007	-0.22868	-0.035431	-0.53053	-2.2211	-2.1673	0.33255	0.13262	-0.5141	-0.71	-0.31916	-0.28514	-0.5702	-0.70553	0.10933	-0.73871
-4	1.1899	0.38098	2.5892	1.7626	0.11541	0.11879	2.8363	2.0511	2.7865	1.3614	0.76851	0.67572	0.47804	0.075404	0.25307	0.12924	0.80024	0.4627	-1.1207	-1.4437	0.11574	0.18788	0.34634	0.22063	-0.025049	-0.036142	-0.3053	-0.13363	-0.47573	-0.2424	0.77913	0.73845	0.30001	0.1798	-0.38672	-0.21423	0.67352	0.26026	-1.4078	-1.6538	0.56634	0.43722	-0.31085	-0.50044	-0.44583	-0.34667	-0.36142	-0.53836	1.4575	0.23992
-3	2.415	1.2256	2.7721	2.0413	0.018283	0.10804	2.8865	2.1557	3.7882	2.1959	0.8228	0.78257	1.1369	0.88435	0.25992	0.17621	1.4325	1.2275	-0.17381	-0.58128	0.018335	0.17089	0.35572	0.30081	0.032475	0.0043026	-0.30454	-0.13371	-0.56144	-0.24941	0.79294	0.7761	0.53704	0.47697	-0.38576	-0.21437	1.4416	1.1196	-0.37894	-0.87267	0.76993	0.70525	-0.048211	-0.20149	-0.52616	-0.35669	-0.09728	-0.28408	2.8416	1.3448
-2	3.5253	2.0168	2.6684	2.0084	-0.1196	0.049817	2.6504	1.9714	4.4724	2.7596	0.792	0.76995	1.7908	1.6443	0.24715	0.20312	1.9886	1.8658	0.88496	0.40814	-0.11994	0.078794	0.33825	0.34674	0.11387	0.063803	-0.27444	-0.12784	-0.56154	-0.20939	0.72807	0.70975	0.74553	0.725	-0.34762	-0.20495	2.1634	1.9163	0.73906	0.065839	0.90898	0.88627	0.24547	0.14147	-0.52625	-0.29946	0.18973	0.021433	4.0801	2.3824
-1	4.3123	2.5921	2.2297	1.639	-0.28367	-0.050483	2.1148	1.5055	4.6854	2.939	0.66179	0.62834	2.284	2.1981	0.18414	0.17996	2.364	2.2775	1.8905	1.3488	-0.28447	-0.079848	0.25202	0.30721	0.18687	0.11869	-0.20816	-0.099922	-0.46674	-0.12534	0.58095	0.54204	0.88626	0.88497	-0.26367	-0.1602	2.6887	2.4985	1.7854	1.0103	0.95227	0.94389	0.52439	0.46754	-0.43741	-0.17926	0.45834	0.3289	4.9503	3.1385
0	4.598	2.8154	1.4834	0.98858	-0.4339	-0.16456	1.3173	0.82053	4.3521	2.6998	0.44028	0.37898	2.4687	2.4169	0.059666	0.097921	2.4699	2.392	2.6656	2.0644	-0.43512	-0.26028	0.081659	0.16716	0.21626	0.14198	-0.106	-0.043316	-0.30214	-0.020274	0.36188	0.29542	0.92598	0.92947	-0.13426	-0.069445	2.882	2.7402	2.609	1.8071	0.88452	0.86709	0.73937	0.71558	-0.28315	-0.028994	0.66979	0.58827	5.265	3.4436
1	4.3123	2.5921	0.54024	0.14462	-0.52227	-0.2413	0.34955	-0.030437	3.5154	2.0452	0.16035	0.055441	2.284	2.1981	-0.10279	-0.0071727	2.2716	2.1079	3.0861	2.3636	-0.52375	-0.38166	-0.14067	-0.012244	0.18687	0.11869	0.020123	0.046375	-0.11451	0.080968	0.096024	-0.010958	0.85163	0.81907	0.025489	0.074348	2.6887	2.4985	3.1108	2.2615	0.71448	0.65684	0.85601	0.81929	-0.10731	0.1158	0.7986	0.73621	4.9503	3.1385
2	3.5253	2.0168	-0.43846	-0.69898	-0.51862	-0.2622	-0.65836	-0.87106	2.3276	1.1816	-0.13014	-0.26796	1.7908	1.6443	-0.25386	-0.10808	1.8057	1.5302	3.1232	2.2665	-0.52009	-0.41472	-0.34743	-0.18451	0.11387	0.063803	0.148	0.1267	0.051984	0.12945	-0.18085	-0.31361	0.67696	0.59459	0.18747	0.20312	2.1634	1.9163	3.2629	2.3938	0.47307	0.37949	0.8663	0.78565	0.048717	0.18514	0.83764	0.77925	4.0801	2.3824
3	2.415	1.2256	-1.2979	-1.4002	-0.42736	-0.2289	-1.5685	-1.568	0.99456	0.28425	-0.38522	-0.53676	1.1369	0.88435	-0.34624	-0.17512	1.1667	0.77073	2.8378	1.8262	-0.42856	-0.36205	-0.47386	-0.29894	0.032475	0.0043026	0.25295	0.17538	0.17535	0.12374	-0.43087	-0.56454	0.4374	0.29949	0.3204	0.28118	1.4416	1.1196	3.0995	2.1904	0.20214	0.091289	0.78713	0.63302	0.16433	0.17696	0.7957	0.71305	2.8416	1.3448
4	1.1899	0.38098	-1.9378	-1.8651	-0.28357	-0.164	-2.269	-2.0197	-0.29389	-0.4994	-0.57515	-0.71501	0.47804	0.075404	-0.36155	-0.2009	0.47013	-0.022962	2.3361	1.167	-0.28437	-0.25939	-0.49481	-0.34295	-0.025049	-0.036142	0.31759	0.18774	0.25848	0.087832	-0.6233	-0.72716	0.17625	-0.0089225	0.40228	0.30099	0.67352	0.26026	2.689	1.7023	-0.05973	-0.16039	0.64798	0.4045	0.24223	0.12561	0.69032	0.55417	1.4575	0.23992
5	0.015546	-0.3775	-2.3274	-2.059	-0.13199	-0.094177	-2.6965	-2.1796	-1.4102	-1.082	-0.6908	-0.78934	-0.09148	-0.65108	-0.31706	-0.1988	-0.18657	-0.71626	1.7178	0.43601	-0.13236	-0.14896	-0.43393	-0.33936	-0.048071	-0.049308	0.33777	0.17553	0.31612	0.052581	-0.74073	-0.78471	-0.069946	-0.27832	0.42784	0.28142	-0.035431	-0.53053	2.1058	1.0308	-0.2866	-0.34751	0.47649	0.15113	0.29626	0.075198	0.54059	0.33558	0.10933	-0.73871
6	-1.016	-0.95939	-2.4853	-1.9927	-0.0039035	-0.035346	-2.8395	-2.0583	-2.2937	-1.4363	-0.73765	-0.76392	-0.55469	-1.2143	-0.24895	-0.18818	-0.74439	-1.2232	1.049	-0.24146	-0.0039145	-0.055906	-0.34072	-0.32124	-0.049008	-0.042075	0.32111	0.15456	0.35814	0.037213	-0.78003	-0.74103	-0.27907	-0.47532	0.40674	0.24779	-0.64305	-1.1639	1.4157	0.29935	-0.46618	-0.46128	0.29097	-0.083698	0.33563	0.05322	0.36342	0.097449	-1.0948	-1.4604
7	-1.8679	-1.3227	-2.4452	-1.7027	0.092812	0.011355	-2.726	-1.7073	-2.9247	-1.5708	-0.72574	-0.65273	-0.93558	-1.5778	-0.18638	-0.17881	-1.1795	-1.5135	0.36795	-0.78331	0.093074	0.01796	-0.25508	-0.30524	-0.048739	-0.027095	0.28007	0.13241	0.38186	0.043596	-0.74883	-0.61468	-0.44221	-0.58811	0.35476	0.21228	-1.1458	-1.5916	0.67686	-0.38029	-0.59443	-0.5045	0.10206	-0.27152	0.35786	0.062348	0.17376	-0.1238	-2.104	-1.8666
8	-2.5207	-1.4636	-2.2341	-1.2392	0.16654	0.052493	-2.4036	-1.1987	-3.2952	-1.5075	-0.6631	-0.47506	-1.2478	-1.7311	-0.1362	-0.16609	-1.4862	-1.5957	-0.2916	-1.1502	0.16701	0.083028	-0.18641	-0.28354	-0.059053	-0.013174	0.22478	0.10628	0.3774	0.061885	-0.66029	-0.43157	-0.55719	-0.62006	0.28472	0.17039	-1.5406	-1.7955	-0.05417	-0.93118	-0.66973	-0.48415	-0.080883	-0.3987	0.35368	0.088505	-0.013906	-0.30313	-2.8876	-1.9607

Return to Figure 9

Figure A.10: Impulse Responses (Large VAR, Great Moderation)

Periods	(y) MP Light Band, 95%-ub	(y) MP Light Band, 95%-lb	(y) MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	(y) MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	(y) MP Mean, Solid line	(y) MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	(y) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(y) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(y) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(y) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(y) N-Tech Mean, Solid line	(y) N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(y) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(y) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(y) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(y) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(y) I-Tech Mean, Solid line	(y) I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(y) News Light Band, 95%-ub	(y) News Light Band, 95%-lb	(y) News Dark Band, 68%-lb	(y) News Dark Band, 68%-ub	(y) News Mean, Solid line	(y) News VAR estimate, Dashed line	(i) MP Light Band, 95%-ub	(i) MP Light Band, 95%-lb	(i) MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	(i) MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	(i) MP Mean, Solid line	(i) MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	(i) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(i) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(i) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(i) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(i) N-Tech Mean, Solid line	(i) N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(i) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(i) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(i) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(i) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(i) I-Tech Mean, Solid line	(i) I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(i) News Light Band, 95%-ub	(i) News Light Band, 95%-lb	(i) News Dark Band, 68%-lb	(i) News Dark Band, 68%-ub	(i) News Mean, Solid line	(i) News VAR estimate, Dashed line	(r ) MP Light Band, 95%-ub	(r ) MP Light Band, 95%-lb	(r ) MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	(r ) MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	(r ) MP Mean, Solid line	(r ) MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	(r ) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(r ) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(r ) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(r ) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(r ) N-Tech Mean, Solid line	(r ) N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(r ) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(r ) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(r ) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(r ) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(r ) I-Tech Mean, Solid line	(r ) I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(r ) News Light Band, 95%-ub	(r ) News Light Band, 95%-lb	(r ) News Dark Band, 68%-lb	(r ) News Dark Band, 68%-ub	(r ) News Mean, Solid line	(r ) News VAR estimate, Dashed line	(pi) MP Light Band, 95%-ub	(pi) MP Light Band, 95%-lb	(pi) MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	(pi) MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	(pi) MP Mean, Solid line	(pi) MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	(pi) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(pi) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(pi) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(pi) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(pi) N-Tech Mean, Solid line	(pi) N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(pi) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(pi) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(pi) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(pi) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(pi) I-Tech Mean, Solid line	(pi) I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(pi) News Light Band, 95%-ub	(pi) News Light Band, 95%-lb	(pi) News Dark Band, 68%-lb	(pi) News Dark Band, 68%-ub	(pi) News Mean, Solid line	(pi) News VAR estimate, Dashed line	(h) MP Light Band, 95%-ub	(h) MP Light Band, 95%-lb	(h) MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	(h) MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	(h) MP Mean, Solid line	(h) MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	(h) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(h) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(h) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(h) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(h) N-Tech Mean, Solid line	(h) N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(h) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(h) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(h) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(h) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(h) I-Tech Mean, Solid line	(h) I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(h) News Light Band, 95%-ub	(h) News Light Band, 95%-lb	(h) News Dark Band, 68%-lb	(h) News Dark Band, 68%-ub	(h) News Mean, Solid line	(h) News VAR estimate, Dashed line
0	8.16E-11	-5.87E-11	-8.15E-12	1.49E-11	3.18E-12	-1.91E-12	0.35474	0.036662	0.14856	0.29833	0.22302	0.32629	0.24643	-0.10685	-0.021587	0.16697	0.075591	0.13758	0.10804	-0.23875	-0.18119	0.0024896	-0.093381	-0.15879	0.22237	0.0054713	0.03723	0.17478	0.1069	0.09408	0.16058	-0.099686	-0.025602	0.10061	0.038922	0.032392	0.20983	-0.054617	0.014698	0.14963	0.081939	0.12996	0.13716	-0.15583	-0.091779	0.051198	-0.020929	-0.096443	0.089674	-0.063618	-0.032817	0.07726	0.032075	0.10043	0.16152	-0.14903	-0.076033	0.083391	0.0039153	0.058208	0.16245	-0.18592	-0.1098	0.086551	-0.011079	0.088734	0.18451	-0.22051	-0.12413	0.10111	-0.0070641	0.14521	2.42E-13	-3.37E-13	-6.15E-14	3.41E-14	-1.29E-14	7.91E-15	0.12449	-0.80083	-0.60325	-0.13505	-0.36998	-0.66385	0.59624	-0.43617	-0.17972	0.35345	0.084008	-0.05185	0.74663	-0.55645	-0.23602	0.45736	0.11163	-0.10852	8.16E-11	-5.87E-11	-8.16E-12	1.49E-11	3.19E-12	-1.91E-12	0.18052	-0.14626	-0.053337	0.1065	0.026693	0.066548	0.26689	-0.049143	0.044895	0.20592	0.12633	0.20618	0.10804	-0.23875	-0.18119	0.0024896	-0.093381	-0.15879
1	0.067835	-0.082346	-0.042797	0.031382	-0.0058796	-0.036428	0.42213	0.065043	0.17806	0.3465	0.26219	0.41497	0.27863	-0.16827	-0.057471	0.17328	0.05934	0.13337	0.10392	-0.27576	-0.17817	0.0086011	-0.08286	-0.1	0.2463	-0.053996	0.01331	0.18884	0.10466	0.039756	0.2828	-0.13374	-0.012627	0.19932	0.093509	0.10142	0.31068	-0.15148	-0.031131	0.2148	0.094742	0.10854	0.22258	-0.28605	-0.19865	0.069019	-0.072025	-0.26634	0.25081	-0.028332	0.036319	0.19714	0.11653	0.10224	0.19627	-0.19951	-0.093441	0.095495	0.0013432	-0.0092833	0.32799	-0.038903	0.065075	0.24614	0.15563	0.25676	0.1799	-0.20922	-0.11947	0.074427	-0.023949	-0.066791	0.28819	-0.16518	-0.041818	0.18307	0.070546	-0.0063506	0.32553	-0.27154	-0.11285	0.17931	0.03438	-0.025816	0.41105	-0.23247	-0.05183	0.26101	0.10083	0.041228	0.32127	-0.34701	-0.20654	0.14848	-0.034484	-0.24165	0.086575	-0.040024	-0.0095935	0.054028	0.022012	0.017397	0.2865	-0.11744	-0.0030021	0.1943	0.094724	0.17875	0.33613	-0.092017	0.027953	0.24999	0.14038	0.24377	0.13497	-0.33564	-0.25668	-0.0083627	-0.14132	-0.2374
2	0.063438	-0.096027	-0.053059	0.021911	-0.0157	-0.020833	0.4903	0.055381	0.19787	0.3966	0.29744	0.47395	0.34741	-0.18043	-0.046488	0.22768	0.088859	0.16837	0.11047	-0.30873	-0.19752	0.013465	-0.092507	-0.12065	0.23209	-0.067544	-0.0020019	0.1664	0.0854	0.018158	0.33474	-0.1616	-0.01718	0.23771	0.11045	0.13335	0.34746	-0.20292	-0.067802	0.2376	0.0867	0.072164	0.25066	-0.35928	-0.26199	0.06724	-0.10646	-0.36873	0.23969	-0.10109	-0.022587	0.1768	0.083468	0.017722	0.32257	-0.13727	-0.00010651	0.22011	0.11171	0.13395	0.32391	-0.14887	-0.029241	0.21556	0.095126	0.15369	0.25952	-0.32359	-0.23334	0.10184	-0.080695	-0.23135	0.14812	-0.17671	-0.10526	0.058976	-0.020857	-0.062486	0.33975	-0.15361	-0.030397	0.21051	0.091064	0.11071	0.17799	-0.28433	-0.17732	0.054214	-0.059373	-0.14822	0.19992	-0.31583	-0.19602	0.059356	-0.068305	-0.19955	0.10395	-0.078647	-0.033429	0.06016	0.013615	0.036786	0.39091	-0.11335	0.039458	0.27837	0.15585	0.29311	0.42177	-0.15534	0.010098	0.30096	0.15219	0.26247	0.11187	-0.41855	-0.31957	-0.042053	-0.18425	-0.28953
3	0.089509	-0.1133	-0.063246	0.033889	-0.015265	-0.0072459	0.53434	0.057693	0.20136	0.42924	0.31642	0.51482	0.39693	-0.21312	-0.056883	0.25683	0.099505	0.19703	0.10862	-0.35308	-0.21683	0.011203	-0.10345	-0.12621	0.20316	-0.048527	0.0049993	0.13804	0.072431	0.04035	0.34876	-0.16416	-0.01294	0.24646	0.11578	0.15148	0.35184	-0.22575	-0.078903	0.23837	0.079296	0.058189	0.25551	-0.38936	-0.29256	0.048476	-0.13127	-0.41712	0.19656	-0.085867	-0.013941	0.13384	0.061866	0.011593	0.29567	-0.12461	-0.0019984	0.1991	0.098731	0.14171	0.30248	-0.1524	-0.035892	0.1959	0.081266	0.129	0.18796	-0.31187	-0.21904	0.032145	-0.098349	-0.25786	0.12996	-0.13378	-0.071874	0.064667	-0.0029563	0.00043552	0.18586	-0.19442	-0.097547	0.091783	-0.003192	-0.00060537	0.19413	-0.20792	-0.097797	0.092245	-0.0024072	-0.081521	0.21824	-0.28099	-0.15804	0.084216	-0.037974	-0.13737	0.14598	-0.13285	-0.068675	0.084648	0.00817	0.068642	0.4767	-0.1027	0.058835	0.3428	0.20005	0.38471	0.47019	-0.21892	-0.027914	0.32336	0.14666	0.25638	0.13471	-0.4951	-0.37089	-0.042105	-0.21267	-0.3304
4	0.10803	-0.12368	-0.066311	0.047038	-0.010867	0.0075564	0.59981	0.072391	0.22219	0.47141	0.34734	0.5641	0.43407	-0.23543	-0.061276	0.28601	0.11008	0.22788	0.10813	-0.37848	-0.22844	0.0084706	-0.11054	-0.13175	0.20084	-0.06128	0.0014787	0.13239	0.067553	0.074478	0.37776	-0.14849	0.0069321	0.26184	0.13351	0.18664	0.35475	-0.22727	-0.088396	0.22636	0.069258	0.052204	0.2433	-0.41066	-0.30633	0.024779	-0.14659	-0.42906	0.15497	-0.052631	-0.0034587	0.10081	0.050033	0.053641	0.29378	-0.10934	0.0045058	0.19941	0.10237	0.15842	0.28989	-0.14992	-0.035992	0.18999	0.076796	0.126	0.16724	-0.31232	-0.2284	0.016122	-0.11314	-0.27942	0.13108	-0.10786	-0.044703	0.065741	0.010808	0.028757	0.1776	-0.14926	-0.063264	0.093192	0.013425	0.0097737	0.18108	-0.16774	-0.076981	0.086997	0.0059052	-0.070811	0.17057	-0.22213	-0.13581	0.053975	-0.040944	-0.15927	0.18474	-0.17919	-0.097684	0.10909	0.0061127	0.10334	0.5461	-0.10353	0.07617	0.39161	0.2343	0.45288	0.51472	-0.27788	-0.059083	0.3419	0.1398	0.25371	0.1534	-0.55815	-0.40378	-0.040017	-0.22392	-0.34088
5	0.11982	-0.13397	-0.071347	0.051572	-0.010624	0.016235	0.63284	0.069744	0.22547	0.48145	0.35436	0.58296	0.45857	-0.24298	-0.066471	0.29974	0.11353	0.25087	0.11282	-0.37205	-0.22298	0.019641	-0.10221	-0.11305	0.19526	-0.086186	-0.009923	0.12952	0.060875	0.10185	0.39307	-0.1211	0.028704	0.27509	0.15218	0.22329	0.34437	-0.23816	-0.099135	0.21219	0.052957	0.037417	0.22559	-0.41311	-0.29988	0.012742	-0.14714	-0.41225	0.16234	-0.072034	-0.0078768	0.10843	0.050968	0.090862	0.30781	-0.084151	0.026044	0.21578	0.12249	0.19407	0.2915	-0.14836	-0.040825	0.18506	0.068834	0.12228	0.13417	-0.31651	-0.22934	-0.0063609	-0.11915	-0.26863	0.10325	-0.065153	-0.020401	0.059774	0.019014	0.020837	0.16204	-0.105	-0.0343	0.098563	0.030306	0.028219	0.17014	-0.16384	-0.07853	0.078875	-0.00048908	-0.073798	0.14101	-0.21035	-0.1269	0.046247	-0.041446	-0.14964	0.2114	-0.21746	-0.12017	0.1274	0.0034512	0.13192	0.5804	-0.11331	0.080182	0.41494	0.24914	0.48933	0.5228	-0.31133	-0.080378	0.34395	0.12633	0.24597	0.16882	-0.56577	-0.40291	-0.032261	-0.2172	-0.32415
6	0.12677	-0.14114	-0.071976	0.055841	-0.0090206	0.02539	0.65336	0.072209	0.22091	0.48463	0.35185	0.58289	0.47388	-0.24566	-0.063015	0.30972	0.11968	0.27259	0.12046	-0.36137	-0.20573	0.02873	-0.088187	-0.090241	0.19332	-0.10793	-0.024185	0.12342	0.052047	0.1199	0.4014	-0.11002	0.038741	0.27592	0.15709	0.24073	0.32627	-0.24773	-0.10991	0.18744	0.03504	0.016999	0.1963	-0.4008	-0.28372	0.013791	-0.13379	-0.37516	0.15798	-0.092641	-0.020455	0.10531	0.044139	0.1105	0.32908	-0.057131	0.05068	0.23695	0.14363	0.2321	0.28215	-0.17478	-0.063582	0.17257	0.051018	0.099381	0.13671	-0.31513	-0.22482	-0.0048784	-0.1156	-0.25319	0.085591	-0.058829	-0.020484	0.043518	0.010966	0.010987	0.14864	-0.094409	-0.029534	0.08436	0.026048	0.029219	0.13595	-0.15044	-0.080103	0.058842	-0.011604	-0.084858	0.12226	-0.18215	-0.11128	0.036841	-0.034586	-0.14362	0.22266	-0.23495	-0.13498	0.13605	-6.74E-05	0.15181	0.59688	-0.10745	0.078772	0.41771	0.24622	0.4954	0.51678	-0.32166	-0.098689	0.32579	0.11226	0.23636	0.17363	-0.55227	-0.38183	-0.010713	-0.19618	-0.28614
7	0.12764	-0.14022	-0.071937	0.05792	-0.0080106	0.031495	0.65934	0.070511	0.21264	0.4746	0.34486	0.57285	0.48523	-0.24455	-0.063028	0.31196	0.12256	0.29056	0.13263	-0.34232	-0.18131	0.035	-0.071992	-0.063738	0.18314	-0.11618	-0.035649	0.11741	0.042624	0.12953	0.38729	-0.090823	0.039434	0.25984	0.15037	0.2389	0.30038	-0.24437	-0.11753	0.16058	0.017786	-0.0034152	0.18227	-0.37401	-0.24918	0.021521	-0.11276	-0.32688	0.15305	-0.10184	-0.032153	0.098771	0.03594	0.11819	0.32838	-0.045983	0.050411	0.23086	0.14031	0.23683	0.26047	-0.18424	-0.0742	0.15	0.034371	0.072823	0.12275	-0.30083	-0.21074	0.0064989	-0.098916	-0.22195	0.074108	-0.055842	-0.01933	0.037765	0.0091017	0.0093953	0.11428	-0.099676	-0.040563	0.058516	0.008657	0.0086343	0.11872	-0.13711	-0.070698	0.049798	-0.0097759	-0.082382	0.10876	-0.14644	-0.084061	0.036401	-0.023162	-0.12197	0.22985	-0.24242	-0.14716	0.13665	-0.0046121	0.16321	0.58333	-0.10919	0.065215	0.39641	0.23047	0.47708	0.50479	-0.33018	-0.10794	0.30111	0.096223	0.22466	0.17891	-0.5134	-0.33643	0.0034736	-0.1652	-0.23258
8	0.12762	-0.13234	-0.068554	0.055981	-0.0074254	0.035092	0.654	0.075964	0.20477	0.46617	0.33605	0.557	0.49742	-0.24179	-0.061471	0.31055	0.12442	0.30537	0.14751	-0.32322	-0.15936	0.04733	-0.055454	-0.036326	0.17257	-0.12415	-0.041519	0.1065	0.033538	0.13141	0.36599	-0.077471	0.03328	0.24018	0.13627	0.22267	0.27605	-0.2463	-0.12032	0.13266	0.001644	-0.02094	0.16303	-0.33578	-0.21016	0.027559	-0.087455	-0.27015	0.15018	-0.10444	-0.038445	0.091412	0.028593	0.11995	0.31146	-0.043497	0.041106	0.20924	0.12643	0.22183	0.23575	-0.1732	-0.079789	0.13034	0.020775	0.050654	0.11778	-0.27143	-0.17847	0.016596	-0.078561	-0.18753	0.06845	-0.049261	-0.018159	0.033568	0.0078196	0.011341	0.10157	-0.096713	-0.037016	0.051144	0.0054543	0.0020715	0.10682	-0.12742	-0.064167	0.043857	-0.010947	-0.076238	0.095671	-0.12677	-0.070132	0.033993	-0.017513	-0.10493	0.22863	-0.25074	-0.14834	0.12686	-0.0099352	0.16699	0.55276	-0.10613	0.047957	0.3679	0.2063	0.44057	0.48881	-0.32054	-0.11539	0.27508	0.080158	0.2121	0.19031	-0.45636	-0.28665	0.022891	-0.12868	-0.16823
9	0.12175	-0.13344	-0.065785	0.054741	-0.0075363	0.036161	0.64515	0.085163	0.19718	0.45231	0.32523	0.53707	0.50557	-0.24797	-0.053268	0.30873	0.12562	0.31693	0.15743	-0.2958	-0.141	0.056813	-0.039066	-0.0097486	0.16218	-0.12211	-0.045838	0.093734	0.024646	0.12692	0.33473	-0.073378	0.020662	0.21526	0.11751	0.19648	0.24284	-0.23647	-0.12447	0.1022	-0.012939	-0.034987	0.15163	-0.28351	-0.16436	0.038596	-0.059825	-0.20747	0.1388	-0.10083	-0.039177	0.082843	0.02252	0.11575	0.2835	-0.046328	0.029365	0.18833	0.10862	0.19604	0.21319	-0.1669	-0.084022	0.10602	0.008816	0.033153	0.11587	-0.23566	-0.14398	0.025944	-0.056509	-0.14672	0.059739	-0.042514	-0.017578	0.028183	0.0055922	0.011454	0.094715	-0.092022	-0.033711	0.046351	0.0059972	0.00083781	0.092292	-0.12219	-0.062829	0.034306	-0.013891	-0.071595	0.083437	-0.11311	-0.057922	0.030649	-0.012105	-0.082614	0.22041	-0.24862	-0.14914	0.11297	-0.015707	0.16415	0.51887	-0.10055	0.028055	0.33286	0.17723	0.39228	0.46203	-0.31285	-0.12269	0.24685	0.064123	0.19853	0.21255	-0.40293	-0.23648	0.055778	-0.089816	-0.098912
10	0.11248	-0.12902	-0.062414	0.053177	-0.0076254	0.035307	0.626	0.086419	0.19034	0.43867	0.31447	0.51509	0.50215	-0.23794	-0.046806	0.30403	0.1269	0.32561	0.16832	-0.27486	-0.12243	0.0686	-0.024146	0.01375	0.14553	-0.11929	-0.048616	0.079287	0.016254	0.11771	0.3109	-0.082041	0.0059191	0.18782	0.096147	0.16372	0.20961	-0.22167	-0.12609	0.077854	-0.025397	-0.045845	0.15816	-0.23494	-0.12081	0.054767	-0.031547	-0.14197	0.12527	-0.099961	-0.041431	0.07101	0.016259	0.10757	0.2608	-0.056244	0.013376	0.16199	0.089341	0.16526	0.1882	-0.166	-0.088554	0.083148	-0.002172	0.019125	0.11964	-0.19752	-0.11093	0.038345	-0.033856	-0.10213	0.051838	-0.042875	-0.01971	0.02321	0.002306	0.011176	0.089119	-0.089834	-0.032199	0.044616	0.0053259	0.00043231	0.08149	-0.11416	-0.062913	0.026373	-0.017371	-0.06814	0.081623	-0.099189	-0.04709	0.032818	-0.0059126	-0.060755	0.2055	-0.25273	-0.14423	0.098007	-0.021331	0.15565	0.48797	-0.11415	0.0055932	0.29423	0.1456	0.33662	0.43704	-0.29866	-0.12377	0.22134	0.04916	0.18385	0.24829	-0.36587	-0.19952	0.089734	-0.051135	-0.02952
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12	0.10284	-0.12095	-0.05716	0.043882	-0.00729	0.028923	0.6064	0.077567	0.17655	0.41394	0.29517	0.47115	0.50444	-0.22082	-0.03709	0.30349	0.1294	0.33508	0.19838	-0.23762	-0.090884	0.087027	-0.0011779	0.04617	0.108	-0.11317	-0.048488	0.052705	0.002331	0.090175	0.24205	-0.12072	-0.027978	0.13927	0.052798	0.09075	0.16778	-0.22415	-0.13364	0.044776	-0.043657	-0.060339	0.20601	-0.17184	-0.05967	0.097988	0.019749	-0.017371	0.095768	-0.097023	-0.039606	0.048741	0.0050184	0.084569	0.19773	-0.085834	-0.016398	0.11898	0.050801	0.098208	0.15263	-0.15815	-0.090667	0.055084	-0.018905	-0.0023505	0.15673	-0.142	-0.056181	0.073664	0.0084968	-0.012114	0.039655	-0.043401	-0.020784	0.016409	-0.0019133	0.0083216	0.076893	-0.082173	-0.032681	0.037049	0.0019983	-0.0040707	0.068852	-0.1084	-0.061238	0.01644	-0.020662	-0.061608	0.083269	-0.078515	-0.028532	0.039779	0.0053216	-0.021484	0.16699	-0.25039	-0.13186	0.072617	-0.029867	0.12572	0.38933	-0.16196	-0.051649	0.21576	0.081285	0.21624	0.40486	-0.29585	-0.12987	0.18205	0.024202	0.15097	0.33145	-0.30067	-0.13145	0.16522	0.017397	0.091512
13	0.09994	-0.11722	-0.053724	0.042303	-0.0065183	0.024321	0.58733	0.071058	0.17117	0.40258	0.287	0.45071	0.50058	-0.21546	-0.029972	0.30236	0.13109	0.33653	0.20218	-0.2231	-0.081934	0.093734	0.0065618	0.054012	0.094312	-0.1049	-0.047892	0.042958	-0.0026152	0.073652	0.21947	-0.1402	-0.049434	0.11519	0.032711	0.054516	0.15446	-0.22458	-0.13801	0.037277	-0.049233	-0.064991	0.23422	-0.15013	-0.039636	0.12492	0.040423	0.035522	0.082983	-0.09044	-0.038995	0.040363	0.00077322	0.071224	0.17809	-0.10001	-0.031727	0.10055	0.033804	0.066099	0.14362	-0.16476	-0.094718	0.044373	-0.024779	-0.011012	0.17861	-0.12046	-0.039456	0.093231	0.025645	0.026869	0.035371	-0.042708	-0.020842	0.013643	-0.0031306	0.0056065	0.073198	-0.082203	-0.033395	0.033377	-0.00021517	-0.0074587	0.064565	-0.10653	-0.060068	0.014466	-0.021236	-0.057989	0.084879	-0.072924	-0.021447	0.043775	0.0098128	-0.0052566	0.15032	-0.24121	-0.12263	0.059658	-0.031985	0.10637	0.35886	-0.19577	-0.077462	0.18113	0.050714	0.15605	0.37376	-0.2935	-0.13142	0.16533	0.015037	0.13308	0.3631	-0.2759	-0.10319	0.19965	0.044614	0.13681
14	0.095821	-0.11383	-0.050723	0.040542	-0.0052322	0.019411	0.58051	0.064283	0.16728	0.39532	0.28008	0.43193	0.51062	-0.20545	-0.022972	0.3002	0.13316	0.33622	0.2083	-0.21387	-0.073841	0.09938	0.011768	0.056257	0.083865	-0.10228	-0.048658	0.034353	-0.0059787	0.056304	0.20509	-0.15859	-0.064868	0.093484	0.014389	0.020036	0.1493	-0.22645	-0.14039	0.034144	-0.052335	-0.068329	0.26173	-0.14227	-0.028721	0.14663	0.056876	0.079232	0.072218	-0.082508	-0.03851	0.033518	-0.0023156	0.057214	0.16089	-0.11642	-0.044445	0.083577	0.018401	0.036004	0.1354	-0.16888	-0.099041	0.039779	-0.028953	-0.0187	0.19798	-0.11313	-0.027216	0.11147	0.039463	0.059093	0.032927	-0.041589	-0.02071	0.012079	-0.0039084	0.0024281	0.071161	-0.082427	-0.035614	0.030338	-0.0028764	-0.011583	0.059375	-0.10651	-0.058327	0.013289	-0.021186	-0.053979	0.095036	-0.070845	-0.018068	0.048681	0.013695	0.0086531	0.13821	-0.22559	-0.11383	0.051223	-0.032442	0.085545	0.31193	-0.22664	-0.10321	0.1517	0.022314	0.098119	0.34614	-0.29947	-0.13699	0.15431	0.0082907	0.11451	0.39928	-0.25345	-0.081785	0.22255	0.066125	0.16942
15	0.095609	-0.11008	-0.046972	0.04029	-0.0035352	0.01458	0.57633	0.059439	0.16538	0.38898	0.27439	0.41516	0.50224	-0.19301	-0.020186	0.30184	0.13545	0.3344	0.20373	-0.2019	-0.066777	0.098732	0.014606	0.053283	0.074694	-0.099744	-0.048715	0.031501	-0.0077735	0.038836	0.19161	-0.17767	-0.077891	0.075836	-0.001728	-0.011828	0.14517	-0.23164	-0.14168	0.032724	-0.053101	-0.070565	0.27921	-0.13233	-0.02007	0.16447	0.068725	0.11253	0.063457	-0.080329	-0.038322	0.02955	-0.0040874	0.042993	0.14858	-0.13268	-0.057256	0.067745	0.0046749	0.0082091	0.13213	-0.1714	-0.09928	0.03586	-0.031222	-0.025492	0.21159	-0.10067	-0.019203	0.12518	0.049779	0.083485	0.030385	-0.040941	-0.019982	0.01101	-0.0041746	-0.00091097	0.07133	-0.083304	-0.037767	0.027014	-0.0053724	-0.015968	0.057804	-0.10722	-0.056883	0.01335	-0.020202	-0.049629	0.10067	-0.063933	-0.015828	0.052012	0.016608	0.020139	0.1263	-0.21499	-0.10746	0.045308	-0.03129	0.064284	0.27605	-0.25823	-0.12713	0.12054	-0.0031825	0.043819	0.32684	-0.29669	-0.13634	0.14848	0.0037934	0.095417	0.406	-0.23525	-0.072464	0.23802	0.081605	0.1886
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19	0.10018	-0.090682	-0.035144	0.045575	0.0049358	0.00092327	0.51724	0.055984	0.16051	0.37305	0.26402	0.36976	0.50911	-0.15584	0.0016041	0.30116	0.14422	0.3156	0.18124	-0.16611	-0.060347	0.081407	0.0084849	0.003053	0.085459	-0.10208	-0.047257	0.041184	-0.0029126	-0.019894	0.12119	-0.20786	-0.11343	0.031445	-0.038109	-0.099911	0.14149	-0.23064	-0.12395	0.037719	-0.038882	-0.072343	0.29574	-0.1188	-0.012082	0.16648	0.071758	0.13963	0.071473	-0.081565	-0.036978	0.033677	-0.00099226	-0.0064261	0.095742	-0.16341	-0.091364	0.029097	-0.029186	-0.072324	0.12906	-0.17911	-0.091464	0.036879	-0.026213	-0.045157	0.22286	-0.080226	-0.010306	0.13033	0.056309	0.10042	0.028544	-0.039442	-0.017725	0.012037	-0.0026881	-0.011867	0.055911	-0.077365	-0.039625	0.018067	-0.010274	-0.027275	0.059225	-0.09142	-0.043411	0.017567	-0.012353	-0.031446	0.097436	-0.053288	-0.011067	0.052017	0.017483	0.040226	0.13572	-0.17163	-0.085742	0.051993	-0.015433	-0.0083385	0.18389	-0.33226	-0.19322	0.050454	-0.067699	-0.11862	0.30589	-0.27831	-0.13363	0.13488	0.0017769	0.015763	0.41998	-0.19697	-0.050089	0.2339	0.087623	0.14039
20	0.10226	-0.086619	-0.034077	0.046954	0.0068563	-0.00056034	0.51453	0.061421	0.16206	0.37091	0.26413	0.36339	0.50664	-0.15436	0.006208	0.3008	0.14568	0.30876	0.17646	-0.16257	-0.061687	0.076534	4.47E-03	-0.014912	0.091304	-0.099804	-0.044898	0.045318	2.76E-05	-0.029512	0.11461	-0.21352	-0.11454	0.03207	-0.03969	-0.11006	0.14443	-0.21965	-0.11599	0.042984	-0.032972	-0.071947	0.28488	-0.10728	-0.016504	0.15407	0.063562	0.12367	0.074347	-0.080013	-0.034913	0.037425	0.0012382	-0.014997	0.089217	-0.16867	-0.091519	0.024599	-0.031844	-0.08324	0.12641	-0.17089	-0.087229	0.041321	-0.022899	-0.048804	0.21948	-0.077325	-0.013629	0.119	0.050793	0.08736	0.030094	-0.038057	-0.017146	0.01237	-0.0019564	-0.013468	0.054928	-0.078445	-0.038605	0.017444	-0.0099222	-0.027588	0.062008	-0.086523	-0.040035	0.018729	-0.0099106	-0.027186	0.094557	-0.052391	-0.012887	0.048817	0.015429	0.039218	0.13982	-0.16775	-0.081431	0.057404	-0.010181	-0.020643	0.17868	-0.34728	-0.19679	0.04781	-0.074032	-0.14333	0.30374	-0.28249	-0.13583	0.13389	0.0032328	-0.0047184	0.41156	-0.18867	-0.052979	0.21967	0.078324	0.10386
21	0.10449	-0.082313	-0.031293	0.048186	0.0085137	-0.0012973	0.51258	0.063951	0.16391	0.37135	0.26505	0.35857	0.49993	-0.16472	0.0083415	0.29669	0.14668	0.30134	0.17058	-0.16219	-0.063305	0.069073	0.00023056	-0.033329	0.096875	-0.097777	-0.042345	0.048337	0.0031459	-0.03663	0.11479	-0.21088	-0.11131	0.030909	-0.038587	-0.11532	0.15554	-0.21044	-0.10702	0.049159	-0.026894	-0.071539	0.25833	-0.10659	-0.022637	0.13851	0.053112	0.10126	0.077923	-0.079807	-0.032749	0.041035	0.0036237	-0.02163	0.087152	-0.1684	-0.092033	0.023733	-0.032336	-0.09028	0.12849	-0.16545	-0.084792	0.043935	-0.019349	-0.052204	0.21005	-0.083322	-0.017286	0.11006	0.043402	0.069389	0.029593	-0.036482	-0.015928	0.013196	-0.00117	-0.014516	0.053487	-0.075668	-0.036634	0.017146	-0.0089974	-0.026822	0.064399	-0.080772	-0.036178	0.020671	-0.0074331	-0.023143	0.087392	-0.05146	-0.014454	0.044208	0.012771	0.036306	0.14884	-0.15827	-0.076177	0.061968	-0.0050021	-0.03012	0.17578	-0.35041	-0.20133	0.045276	-0.076903	-0.16176	0.30834	-0.2912	-0.13009	0.13482	0.0046961	-0.025304	0.39482	-0.18827	-0.061448	0.19603	0.066484	0.061369
22	0.10471	-0.077526	-0.028619	0.047871	0.00986	-0.001381	0.51296	0.067544	0.16765	0.37222	0.2666	0.35504	0.50489	-0.16438	0.0086113	0.29592	0.14721	0.29346	0.16696	-0.1684	-0.06981	0.062445	-0.0039071	-0.051426	0.10076	-0.095495	-0.039909	0.050438	0.0062276	-0.041235	0.11701	-0.20513	-0.10575	0.032103	-0.035173	-0.11598	0.15679	-0.20454	-0.099884	0.05383	-0.020972	-0.071228	0.2373	-0.10263	-0.02974	0.12104	0.041185	0.074082	0.080824	-0.077325	-0.030827	0.042746	0.0059853	-0.026303	0.085848	-0.16957	-0.09132	0.025452	-0.03093	-0.09363	0.13351	-0.1614	-0.080852	0.04741	-0.015817	-0.055453	0.19227	-0.081971	-0.02298	0.096165	0.034731	0.047748	0.031026	-0.034438	-0.015191	0.013689	-0.00037736	-0.015	0.050374	-0.076196	-0.033756	0.017725	-0.0075665	-0.025043	0.063619	-0.074424	-0.033175	0.022053	-0.0050368	-0.019335	0.08083	-0.052072	-0.016677	0.03883	0.0096942	0.031872	0.14605	-0.1528	-0.069457	0.06712	-0.00013376	-0.0368	0.18313	-0.35603	-0.20681	0.042143	-0.076781	-0.17437	0.31404	-0.28793	-0.12715	0.13919	0.0058622	-0.045896	0.38778	-0.20648	-0.070938	0.18136	0.053081	0.015085
23	0.10408	-0.074624	-0.025869	0.048094	0.010864	-0.00093186	0.5121	0.071459	0.16956	0.37073	0.26858	0.35249	0.50162	-0.16475	0.0082179	0.29572	0.14725	0.28527	0.15844	-0.17158	-0.074689	0.056619	-0.0076543	-0.06852	0.10283	-0.092834	-0.035577	0.051726	0.0090874	-0.043427	0.11774	-0.20465	-0.097425	0.035699	-0.029897	-0.11248	0.16083	-0.19716	-0.092491	0.057067	-0.015485	-0.071077	0.22493	-0.12035	-0.038456	0.10199	0.028546	0.043847	0.082176	-0.075747	-0.027523	0.043819	0.0081833	-0.029082	0.090951	-0.16738	-0.086271	0.028647	-0.027951	-0.093615	0.14234	-0.15627	-0.077619	0.049411	-0.012503	-0.058611	0.18202	-0.097723	-0.030295	0.086789	0.025372	0.02373	0.031508	-0.033394	-0.013591	0.01386	0.00038593	-0.014933	0.053006	-0.072938	-0.030922	0.018708	-0.0057217	-0.022349	0.067205	-0.069606	-0.030147	0.02463	-0.0027745	-0.015775	0.074878	-0.054348	-0.018353	0.033203	0.0063772	0.026334	0.15005	-0.146	-0.063202	0.071091	0.0042303	-0.040838	0.18725	-0.35692	-0.20231	0.044928	-0.074209	-0.18176	0.31855	-0.29575	-0.12895	0.14164	0.0064832	-0.066368	0.36901	-0.22221	-0.081966	0.16785	0.039056	-0.032834
24	0.10235	-0.071013	-0.023991	0.047821	0.011518	-8.71E-05	0.51197	0.07187	0.17168	0.37065	0.2708	0.35064	0.50242	-0.16286	0.0041006	0.2932	0.14684	0.27688	0.15602	-0.17306	-0.07698	0.051934	-0.010783	-0.084042	0.10243	-0.089773	-0.030386	0.053666	0.011578	-0.043398	0.12557	-0.19714	-0.089319	0.040815	-0.023253	-0.10542	0.17247	-0.18998	-0.086659	0.063434	-0.010659	-0.071115	0.20345	-0.14275	-0.049858	0.085554	0.015918	0.012249	0.081566	-0.073419	-0.023979	0.045166	0.010097	-0.030108	0.095786	-0.16333	-0.080977	0.031153	-0.023758	-0.090671	0.14813	-0.15374	-0.074613	0.052887	-0.0095847	-0.061705	0.17286	-0.10893	-0.039549	0.074213	0.015881	-0.0013792	0.032222	-0.031206	-0.011888	0.014347	0.0010792	-0.014345	0.056607	-0.069173	-0.027416	0.020851	-0.0035871	-0.018866	0.066632	-0.065368	-0.027907	0.025836	-0.00073834	-0.012466	0.066927	-0.057125	-0.020212	0.027883	0.0030091	0.020116	0.15006	-0.13743	-0.056396	0.074826	0.0079426	-0.042491	0.19108	-0.36479	-0.19585	0.050394	-0.069779	-0.1847	0.32385	-0.30854	-0.13284	0.14542	0.0063818	-0.086574	0.34821	-0.24915	-0.096882	0.15285	0.025273	-0.080339
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34	0.078374	-0.065911	-0.021848	0.033393	0.0056151	0.0033371	0.53667	0.1049	0.19005	0.37112	0.28059	0.32593	0.53954	-0.19237	-0.017379	0.27492	0.13301	0.20576	0.15656	-0.13875	-0.053552	0.054376	0.0007203	-0.11383	0.082449	-0.049824	-0.015217	0.034325	0.0091485	0.0076489	0.15995	-0.089327	-0.020651	0.083394	0.028674	0.011428	0.15844	-0.15682	-0.067491	0.053109	-0.0078714	-0.07229	0.11056	-0.20076	-0.087745	0.028656	-0.025186	-0.13228	0.068151	-0.042304	-0.012139	0.028205	0.0081092	0.0023604	0.12419	-0.09146	-0.029005	0.061002	0.014531	-0.013828	0.12477	-0.1494	-0.065245	0.044003	-0.01079	-0.082454	0.10185	-0.16006	-0.069446	0.028825	-0.017454	-0.12121	0.026936	-0.022509	-0.0081088	0.011362	0.0015608	0.0039191	0.067107	-0.03129	-0.0056295	0.032623	0.012425	0.023263	0.065125	-0.050905	-0.017843	0.027705	0.0044537	0.0088421	0.032898	-0.068757	-0.030626	0.0091313	-0.009302	-0.013162	0.12967	-0.099639	-0.038088	0.051597	0.0071685	-0.011303	0.20188	-0.31157	-0.12797	0.069608	-0.027768	-0.14039	0.26607	-0.37522	-0.15771	0.089786	-0.03077	-0.23799	0.26187	-0.27521	-0.11387	0.086442	-0.008605	-0.27003
35	0.076212	-0.065517	-0.022192	0.03202	0.0047671	0.001767	0.5405	0.10655	0.1898	0.36816	0.27977	0.32136	0.53724	-0.18809	-0.016478	0.27356	0.13232	0.2015	0.15811	-0.13085	-0.047438	0.054748	0.0039611	-0.10734	0.078701	-0.050744	-0.01638	0.031078	0.0072612	0.011085	0.16269	-0.087762	-0.021635	0.081396	0.027998	0.016379	0.15127	-0.1535	-0.067212	0.04767	-0.010121	-0.071113	0.10372	-0.1837	-0.078852	0.030899	-0.020464	-0.1221	0.062955	-0.041023	-0.012795	0.026641	0.0066267	0.0047106	0.12381	-0.08787	-0.027503	0.059401	0.014302	-0.010224	0.12067	-0.14481	-0.065149	0.038503	-0.012598	-0.08251	0.098812	-0.14514	-0.061215	0.02949	-0.01399	-0.11385	0.026533	-0.022695	-0.0084377	0.010458	0.0011289	0.0052885	0.067406	-0.030382	-0.0055702	0.032406	0.012401	0.025256	0.063937	-0.050325	-0.017336	0.02642	0.0039432	0.010163	0.035491	-0.066642	-0.028846	0.0098432	-0.0081472	-0.011068	0.12145	-0.09662	-0.039709	0.048995	0.0050759	-0.010572	0.19957	-0.30219	-0.12759	0.067949	-0.0287	-0.14037	0.25767	-0.36691	-0.15629	0.079976	-0.035051	-0.24516	0.25463	-0.25452	-0.10267	0.088158	-0.0024794	-0.25589
36	0.07632	-0.063482	-0.022681	0.030867	0.0040292	-0.0001242	0.54249	0.10573	0.18899	0.36522	0.27884	0.31666	0.54536	-0.19535	-0.014299	0.27222	0.13195	0.19789	0.1578	-0.12093	-0.042399	0.058073	0.0069624	-0.1004	0.073213	-0.052104	-0.017231	0.028387	0.0054232	0.013493	0.16269	-0.084672	-0.022673	0.078775	0.026359	0.019282	0.14295	-0.15314	-0.06734	0.043149	-0.012246	-0.069532	0.10399	-0.17432	-0.068634	0.033192	-0.015163	-0.10891	0.059366	-0.040243	-0.013503	0.024738	0.0051762	0.0063241	0.1237	-0.08687	-0.027675	0.057706	0.013359	-0.0080478	0.11457	-0.14309	-0.06441	0.033201	-0.014294	-0.082079	0.09163	-0.13165	-0.054217	0.031819	-0.010043	-0.10402	0.025377	-0.023574	-0.0087288	0.0097868	0.00069485	0.0063743	0.065509	-0.029298	-0.005917	0.032001	0.012091	0.026603	0.063071	-0.05016	-0.017479	0.025665	0.0034055	0.011396	0.033571	-0.062821	-0.025617	0.010591	-0.0068004	-0.0082474	0.11128	-0.09583	-0.039045	0.045216	0.0030741	-0.010911	0.19214	-0.29456	-0.12773	0.061131	-0.030406	-0.14179	0.24835	-0.3544	-0.15371	0.068175	-0.03877	-0.25062	0.24734	-0.23141	-0.088682	0.091559	0.004011	-0.23814
37	0.076212	-0.06263	-0.02249	0.029493	0.003421	-0.0022712	0.54122	0.10938	0.1882	0.36354	0.27787	0.31196	0.55112	-0.20257	-0.013589	0.27329	0.13191	0.19493	0.15684	-0.11435	-0.037846	0.058777	0.0095985	-0.093328	0.067872	-0.054244	-0.018825	0.026268	0.0037138	0.014864	0.15932	-0.082737	-0.024707	0.074354	0.023949	0.020265	0.14051	-0.1468	-0.067223	0.0376	-0.014127	-0.067547	0.10289	-0.16128	-0.059313	0.036322	-0.0096341	-0.093507	0.056051	-0.040791	-0.014848	0.022183	0.0038186	0.0071882	0.12143	-0.084243	-0.028193	0.053705	0.011838	-0.0072183	0.11146	-0.14036	-0.063647	0.029207	-0.015785	-0.081166	0.091689	-0.11998	-0.046328	0.034644	-0.0058859	-0.092331	0.024893	-0.02452	-0.0091067	0.0092775	0.00028179	0.0071686	0.066087	-0.028219	-0.0060857	0.030537	0.011538	0.02733	0.059641	-0.049966	-0.018069	0.024637	0.0028783	0.012547	0.03579	-0.060184	-0.022752	0.011985	-0.0053492	-0.0048851	0.10635	-0.098524	-0.040598	0.042295	0.0012555	-0.012276	0.18887	-0.29542	-0.12961	0.057888	-0.032665	-0.14443	0.23327	-0.35798	-0.15338	0.062561	-0.041818	-0.25439	0.23814	-0.21516	-0.07745	0.095004	0.010449	-0.21779
38	0.074798	-0.062663	-0.022958	0.028042	0.0029534	-0.0045998	0.53669	0.11398	0.18735	0.36272	0.27694	0.30741	0.55915	-0.19718	-0.010316	0.27633	0.13221	0.1926	0.15241	-0.11006	-0.033585	0.06124	0.011772	-0.086414	0.064759	-0.053902	-0.020443	0.023429	0.0021982	0.015242	0.15102	-0.082327	-0.025901	0.069479	0.020977	0.019532	0.13691	-0.14584	-0.06874	0.032077	-0.015665	-0.065172	0.10595	-0.1439	-0.05027	0.039626	-0.0042054	-0.076727	0.052778	-0.040812	-0.016399	0.020771	0.0026047	0.0073281	0.11275	-0.084938	-0.029857	0.050327	0.0098905	-0.007595	0.10735	-0.13544	-0.062601	0.025095	-0.016998	-0.079785	0.095933	-0.11109	-0.040053	0.03629	-0.0017743	-0.07941	0.02453	-0.024542	-0.0095064	0.008721	-9.04E-05	0.0076763	0.066981	-0.028558	-0.0064706	0.02941	0.010791	0.027484	0.059596	-0.050416	-0.018091	0.024025	0.0023925	0.013619	0.038493	-0.057194	-0.020597	0.013315	-0.0038763	-0.0011765	0.10214	-0.097321	-0.0413	0.038944	-0.00030678	-0.014569	0.1794	-0.2937	-0.13118	0.052476	-0.035241	-0.14802	0.22351	-0.34835	-0.15211	0.056843	-0.044114	-0.25651	0.25154	-0.20383	-0.067077	0.09779	0.016461	-0.19586
39	0.074652	-0.06422	-0.022913	0.027301	0.0026296	-0.0070311	0.53045	0.11116	0.18778	0.36333	0.27614	0.30315	0.56431	-0.20109	-0.007777	0.27828	0.13282	0.19089	0.15179	-0.10396	-0.030929	0.0628	0.013413	-0.079906	0.058277	-0.055362	-0.020688	0.021589	0.00092567	0.014709	0.14734	-0.082983	-0.027234	0.063611	0.017655	0.017344	0.13265	-0.14298	-0.069465	0.02898	-0.016791	-0.062438	0.12318	-0.13315	-0.041653	0.044824	0.00083727	-0.059373	0.049739	-0.040688	-0.016801	0.019265	0.001573	0.0068024	0.10881	-0.086047	-0.029905	0.046999	0.0076756	-0.0089902	0.10634	-0.131	-0.062552	0.021741	-0.017879	-0.077963	0.0994	-0.10238	-0.032666	0.03891	0.0020668	-0.06588	0.023179	-0.024223	-0.0098055	0.0080565	-0.00040586	0.0079137	0.064757	-0.027718	-0.007182	0.028558	0.0098991	0.027127	0.060434	-0.049006	-0.018183	0.022766	0.0019732	0.014613	0.039316	-0.052778	-0.018912	0.014094	-0.0024569	0.0026827	0.099283	-0.10077	-0.041255	0.037051	-0.0015609	-0.01765	0.16975	-0.28967	-0.13128	0.046232	-0.037899	-0.15223	0.21388	-0.34341	-0.15118	0.05205	-0.045616	-0.25705	0.25634	-0.19328	-0.055869	0.10188	0.02173	-0.17333
40	0.074865	-0.063292	-0.022606	0.026715	0.0024448	-0.0094849	0.52671	0.11289	0.1868	0.36281	0.27553	0.29931	0.57571	-0.1971	-0.0096889	0.27798	0.13373	0.18978	0.14919	-0.103	-0.028759	0.064086	0.014484	-0.073995	0.054255	-0.056117	-0.021806	0.019397	-7.19E-05	0.013385	0.13634	-0.081991	-0.027651	0.057265	0.014192	0.014008	0.12607	-0.14041	-0.068083	0.026126	-0.01746	-0.059383	0.13119	-0.12609	-0.034223	0.050719	0.0052581	-0.042201	0.046349	-0.040667	-0.017122	0.017501	0.0007493	5.70E-03	0.103	-0.084513	-0.031254	0.042024	0.005348	-0.011184	0.098373	-0.12797	-0.061193	0.020546	-0.018395	-0.075736	0.10507	-0.093785	-0.028441	0.041204	0.00545	-0.052325	0.022049	-0.024719	-0.0095114	0.0075651	-0.00065355	0.0079069	0.063603	-0.028276	-0.0070087	0.026762	0.0089151	0.026335	0.059998	-0.047171	-0.018561	0.022113	0.0016378	0.015525	0.043489	-0.047484	-0.017287	0.014943	-0.0011554	0.0065063	0.09743	-0.10157	-0.041019	0.036004	-0.002477	-0.02135	0.15626	-0.27998	-0.13439	0.042316	-0.040415	-0.15669	0.20843	-0.33369	-0.14576	0.047234	-0.046311	-0.25609	0.24577	-0.17531	-0.047518	0.1083	0.026007	-0.15107

Return to Figure 10

Figure A.11: Impulse Responses (Large VAR, Great Inflation)

Periods	(y) MP Light Band, 95%-ub	(y) MP Light Band, 95%-lb	(y) MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	(y) MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	(y) MP Mean, Solid line	(y) MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	(y) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(y) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(y) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(y) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(y) N-Tech Mean, Solid line	(y) N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(y) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(y) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(y) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(y) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(y) I-Tech Mean, Solid line	(y) I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(y) News Light Band, 95%-ub	(y) News Light Band, 95%-lb	(y) News Dark Band, 68%-lb	(y) News Dark Band, 68%-ub	(y) News Mean, Solid line	(y) News VAR estimate, Dashed line	(y) Nom. Trend Light Band, 95%-ub	(y) Nom. Trend Light Band, 95%-lb	(y) Nom. Trend Dark Band, 68%-lb	(y) Nom. Trend Dark Band, 68%-ub	(y) Nom. Trend Mean, Solid line	(y) Nom. Trend VAR estimate, Dashed line	(i) MP Light Band, 95%-ub	(i) MP Light Band, 95%-lb	(i) MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	(i) MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	(i) MP Mean, Solid line	(i) MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	(i) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(i) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(i) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(i) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(i) N-Tech Mean, Solid line	(i) N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(i) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(i) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(i) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(i) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(i) I-Tech Mean, Solid line	(i) I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(i) News Light Band, 95%-ub	(i) News Light Band, 95%-lb	(i) News Dark Band, 68%-lb	(i) News Dark Band, 68%-ub	(i) News Mean, Solid line	(i) News VAR estimate, Dashed line	(i) Nom. Trend Light Band, 95%-ub	(i) Nom. Trend Light Band, 95%-lb	(i) Nom. Trend Dark Band, 68%-lb	(i) Nom. Trend Dark Band, 68%-ub	(i) Nom. Trend Mean, Solid line	(i) Nom. Trend VAR estimate, Dashed line	(r ) MP Light Band, 95%-ub	(r ) MP Light Band, 95%-lb	(r ) MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	(r ) MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	(r ) MP Mean, Solid line	(r ) MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	(r ) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(r ) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(r ) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(r ) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(r ) N-Tech Mean, Solid line	(r ) N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(r ) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(r ) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(r ) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(r ) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(r ) I-Tech Mean, Solid line	(r ) I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(r ) News Light Band, 95%-ub	(r ) News Light Band, 95%-lb	(r ) News Dark Band, 68%-lb	(r ) News Dark Band, 68%-ub	(r ) News Mean, Solid line	(r ) News VAR estimate, Dashed line	(r ) Nom. Trend Light Band, 95%-ub	(r ) Nom. Trend Light Band, 95%-lb	(r ) Nom. Trend Dark Band, 68%-lb	(r ) Nom. Trend Dark Band, 68%-ub	(r ) Nom. Trend Mean, Solid line	(r ) Nom. Trend VAR estimate, Dashed line	(pi) MP Light Band, 95%-ub	(pi) MP Light Band, 95%-lb	(pi) MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	(pi) MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	(pi) MP Mean, Solid line	(pi) MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	(pi) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(pi) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(pi) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(pi) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(pi) N-Tech Mean, Solid line	(pi) N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(pi) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(pi) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(pi) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(pi) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(pi) I-Tech Mean, Solid line	(pi) I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(pi) News Light Band, 95%-ub	(pi) News Light Band, 95%-lb	(pi) News Dark Band, 68%-lb	(pi) News Dark Band, 68%-ub	(pi) News Mean, Solid line	(pi) News VAR estimate, Dashed line	(pi) Nom. Trend Light Band, 95%-ub	(pi) Nom. Trend Light Band, 95%-lb	(pi) Nom. Trend Dark Band, 68%-lb	(pi) Nom. Trend Dark Band, 68%-ub	(pi) Nom. Trend Mean, Solid line	(pi) Nom. Trend VAR estimate, Dashed line	(h) MP Light Band, 95%-ub	(h) MP Light Band, 95%-lb	(h) MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	(h) MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	(h) MP Mean, Solid line	(h) MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	(h) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(h) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(h) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(h) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(h) N-Tech Mean, Solid line	(h) N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(h) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(h) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(h) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(h) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(h) I-Tech Mean, Solid line	(h) I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(h) News Light Band, 95%-ub	(h) News Light Band, 95%-lb	(h) News Dark Band, 68%-lb	(h) News Dark Band, 68%-ub	(h) News Mean, Solid line	(h) News VAR estimate, Dashed line	(h) Nom. Trend Light Band, 95%-ub	(h) Nom. Trend Light Band, 95%-lb	(h) Nom. Trend Dark Band, 68%-lb	(h) Nom. Trend Dark Band, 68%-ub	(h) Nom. Trend Mean, Solid line	(h) Nom. Trend VAR estimate, Dashed line
0	6.87E-12	-9.00E-12	-1.76E-12	8.50E-13	-3.25E-13	-4.34E-14	0.4727	-0.14426	0.017283	0.3457	0.18091	0.090653	0.36753	-0.26815	-0.10127	0.22217	0.060528	0.13116	0.12907	-0.45136	-0.35726	-0.0047273	-0.18385	-0.41523	0.44559	-0.10562	0.038446	0.31814	0.17655	0.32238	0.3732	0.0067504	0.053567	0.2967	0.17579	0.29728	0.13872	-0.29182	-0.19342	0.034635	-0.079981	-0.13819	0.25871	-0.22028	-0.093698	0.14916	0.026889	-0.054461	0.29109	-0.37948	-0.2676	0.073323	-0.10107	-0.16633	0.27854	-0.11052	-0.0082283	0.19097	0.091134	0.14695	0.20377	-0.083241	-0.0054906	0.14442	0.067715	0.13608	0.36166	-0.13564	-0.0001411	0.24388	0.12377	0.032898	0.39424	-0.20457	-0.014681	0.29715	0.1456	0.35498	0.29881	-0.23024	-0.12363	0.19109	0.035435	0.069589	-0.034411	-0.41744	-0.33678	-0.1547	-0.24545	-0.32736	6.62E-14	-5.36E-14	-4.66E-15	5.30E-15	4.98E-15	9.01E-15	0.22797	-0.71809	-0.5028	-0.018166	-0.26516	0.019871	0.28587	-0.78968	-0.61798	-0.079041	-0.35587	-0.71819	0.65857	-0.68794	-0.44964	0.44461	-0.016413	0.011845	0.60355	-0.17818	0.031393	0.41652	0.22062	0.2749	6.88E-12	-9.01E-12	-1.75E-12	8.24E-13	-3.26E-13	-4.48E-14	0.21398	-0.26835	-0.15303	0.093247	-0.028318	-0.0069498	0.28491	-0.1901	-0.065705	0.17309	0.055615	0.15776	0.12907	-0.45136	-0.35726	-0.0047273	-0.18385	-0.41523	0.29446	-0.14221	-0.033484	0.19312	0.080798	0.13379
1	0.11932	-0.16314	-0.089596	0.043401	-0.021824	-0.060315	0.5517	-0.12838	0.051685	0.40121	0.22985	0.2053	0.4355	-0.35443	-0.14953	0.2508	0.048195	0.21806	0.29481	-0.50583	-0.34827	0.13441	-0.11438	-0.30099	0.60265	0.01911	0.17782	0.46281	0.31984	0.50144	0.35156	-0.053917	0.018929	0.24234	0.13228	0.2149	0.20324	-0.46057	-0.31931	0.022103	-0.14845	-0.26916	0.41771	-0.30299	-0.11825	0.26505	0.072292	-0.088461	0.26099	-0.47745	-0.34017	0.030344	-0.14858	-0.22202	0.51695	0.011437	0.16222	0.41298	0.28674	0.42284	0.1829	-0.062078	-0.001738	0.12128	0.060063	0.14274	0.18441	-0.13483	-0.053778	0.10012	0.022405	-0.056083	0.24932	-0.074533	0.0097893	0.16735	0.089103	0.12906	0.17919	-0.15306	-0.084192	0.094949	0.0035167	0.059236	0.065206	-0.19498	-0.12879	0.0010944	-0.065455	-0.080087	0.34812	-0.12208	-0.011326	0.22475	0.10635	0.16121	0.18531	-0.5749	-0.39765	-0.010916	-0.19967	-0.17109	0.39952	-0.57665	-0.37739	0.12555	-0.12758	-0.40944	0.25473	-0.51257	-0.32681	0.041974	-0.14301	-0.23592	0.63583	0.043472	0.19769	0.4805	0.34122	0.47431	0.12073	-0.1367	-0.071414	0.050109	-0.010815	-0.037035	0.28163	-0.39557	-0.24488	0.10641	-0.06578	-0.034914	0.39027	-0.26684	-0.10501	0.2215	0.059811	0.14481	0.17261	-0.59472	-0.44701	0.0011238	-0.22895	-0.49499	0.54098	-0.044266	0.1209	0.41283	0.2689	0.38866
2	0.12485	-0.27288	-0.17451	0.033372	-0.07233	-0.10944	0.69387	-0.13488	0.092534	0.49724	0.29369	0.24937	0.51738	-0.4139	-0.16421	0.31712	0.081637	0.29311	0.36366	-0.5089	-0.33877	0.18089	-0.083638	-0.23445	0.68551	0.037484	0.20494	0.53638	0.37215	0.57366	0.22044	-0.13129	-0.055021	0.1146	0.030344	0.028065	0.23597	-0.50549	-0.33616	0.041004	-0.14943	-0.24894	0.46865	-0.37709	-0.14703	0.27453	0.060844	-0.112	0.31414	-0.52951	-0.37684	0.12664	-0.13972	-0.22111	0.65296	0.11459	0.26015	0.52999	0.39329	0.56401	0.13845	-0.089954	-0.036744	0.080214	0.021694	0.042515	0.20994	-0.08094	-0.004138	0.13818	0.065653	0.015968	0.25314	-0.12646	-0.015769	0.17421	0.081508	0.19611	0.12591	-0.14131	-0.074159	0.059187	-0.0084751	0.0201	0.073504	-0.16619	-0.10438	0.010339	-0.046907	-0.047078	0.28902	-0.13305	-0.031901	0.18266	0.076462	0.072158	0.22523	-0.54344	-0.35622	0.02688	-0.17028	-0.21308	0.43214	-0.47443	-0.25095	0.21439	-0.021877	-0.21752	0.20956	-0.46689	-0.3363	0.020206	-0.15298	-0.28126	0.63354	0.05454	0.21047	0.49889	0.35241	0.50292	0.13004	-0.2498	-0.15231	0.03335	-0.059456	-0.10289	0.38743	-0.45581	-0.25738	0.18613	-0.03425	-0.070814	0.53663	-0.28093	-0.079184	0.33649	0.12694	0.1997	0.29902	-0.66981	-0.4975	0.072306	-0.21898	-0.47498	0.70134	0.016837	0.20757	0.54725	0.37713	0.54568
3	0.11348	-0.28919	-0.19279	0.014271	-0.088842	-0.14849	0.82509	-0.039038	0.19068	0.59825	0.40041	0.33747	0.63844	-0.45926	-0.16898	0.40348	0.12342	0.46131	0.36382	-0.45133	-0.24831	0.1415	-0.049365	-0.17805	0.6595	-0.030462	0.13574	0.49368	0.31766	0.49851	0.17107	-0.19145	-0.10913	0.074142	-0.020179	-0.093197	0.30272	-0.48786	-0.30953	0.092028	-0.10542	-0.16815	0.47934	-0.37811	-0.16946	0.26069	0.045578	-0.085703	0.30864	-0.5327	-0.38078	0.13781	-0.13834	-0.25735	0.71901	0.15865	0.29593	0.5833	0.43936	0.61835	0.075919	-0.085647	-0.04912	0.033981	-0.0073242	0.0027597	0.19612	-0.051936	0.014158	0.13846	0.075171	0.060978	0.23001	-0.14324	-0.032357	0.15935	0.064354	0.19395	0.092825	-0.10447	-0.052702	0.042301	-0.0044664	0.014865	0.05658	-0.13964	-0.088226	0.013217	-0.037499	-0.039822	0.19775	-0.14905	-0.07081	0.099606	0.014876	-0.01445	0.24447	-0.63729	-0.42655	0.010084	-0.21032	-0.26491	0.50537	-0.56172	-0.30279	0.25131	-0.023358	-0.30811	0.35768	-0.56995	-0.39795	0.17225	-0.12872	-0.24121	0.73981	0.14431	0.28684	0.59916	0.44081	0.61109	0.11178	-0.32392	-0.21394	0.0052121	-0.10238	-0.20082	0.49907	-0.41914	-0.20752	0.2738	0.031728	-0.040622	0.60977	-0.29552	-0.046658	0.41671	0.18461	0.31849	0.35229	-0.67648	-0.46027	0.1132	-0.1734	-0.41146	0.73687	-0.001661	0.19873	0.56087	0.38162	0.5511
4	0.11945	-0.29422	-0.18901	0.020806	-0.085312	-0.12803	0.90314	0.050348	0.26758	0.67091	0.47149	0.39732	0.72669	-0.5269	-0.17937	0.47838	0.15625	0.58434	0.40503	-0.38747	-0.18178	0.18073	-0.0021668	-0.089474	0.603	-0.11366	0.057913	0.41173	0.23796	0.3802	0.18157	-0.19675	-0.11121	0.07602	-0.020928	-0.11881	0.34752	-0.42674	-0.25198	0.15094	-0.04702	-0.10508	0.47815	-0.32877	-0.13347	0.2745	0.070291	0.0087166	0.19536	-0.47197	-0.3149	0.041405	-0.13909	-0.29487	0.73472	0.17314	0.29506	0.58564	0.44069	0.61732	0.059696	-0.080103	-0.045622	0.023092	-0.01152	-0.011332	0.18653	-0.037364	0.019179	0.1298	0.074562	0.088169	0.1944	-0.14272	-0.051955	0.12485	0.037074	0.15664	0.090431	-0.10623	-0.057013	0.045884	-0.0062977	0.0026346	0.070769	-0.11604	-0.064948	0.023613	-0.020175	-0.01762	0.1905	-0.17605	-0.099377	0.077909	-0.012364	-0.095957	0.27972	-0.61539	-0.39589	0.044155	-0.17626	-0.22912	0.50157	-0.53743	-0.28008	0.24838	-0.022654	-0.27965	0.29036	-0.54397	-0.36343	0.11894	-0.13363	-0.27222	0.8048	0.17183	0.31975	0.6337	0.47773	0.65817	0.11256	-0.35212	-0.23206	-0.0013873	-0.11799	-0.24663	0.55783	-0.35701	-0.13892	0.3335	0.098046	0.020468	0.66159	-0.31588	-0.039018	0.46446	0.21637	0.42778	0.33771	-0.61383	-0.37544	0.1165	-0.12937	-0.34815	0.70189	-0.066423	0.1485	0.51601	0.32927	0.47409
5	0.12926	-0.30177	-0.18086	0.02837	-0.079021	-0.098178	0.9436	0.099423	0.31774	0.71721	0.51353	0.4436	0.77363	-0.54292	-0.20546	0.50848	0.15839	0.64394	0.45242	-0.36496	-0.13228	0.24554	0.047713	0.01176	0.52568	-0.18711	-0.010242	0.32849	0.15957	0.26383	0.15942	-0.1745	-0.09853	0.06324	-0.020862	-0.11171	0.37253	-0.39299	-0.21572	0.16794	-0.017722	-0.085747	0.49834	-0.28422	-0.088235	0.29825	0.10274	0.080727	0.13878	-0.41876	-0.26455	0.017622	-0.12192	-0.28265	0.73135	0.16788	0.28874	0.57476	0.4329	0.60214	0.064088	-0.062303	-0.02941	0.027225	-0.00083284	0.0034829	0.18953	-0.024312	0.024756	0.13392	0.078894	0.087957	0.21144	-0.13382	-0.041568	0.13815	0.046693	0.17344	0.063072	-0.094688	-0.053382	0.017581	-0.017433	-0.018463	0.066063	-0.10186	-0.052662	0.027267	-0.012691	-0.0047607	0.1815	-0.16986	-0.09512	0.07898	-0.010722	-0.10748	0.30645	-0.54098	-0.32526	0.097441	-0.11468	-0.19325	0.48693	-0.44752	-0.19666	0.26414	0.030124	-0.14792	0.14553	-0.44347	-0.28577	0.020006	-0.13168	-0.29751	0.78277	0.17791	0.30506	0.62061	0.46238	0.63494	0.12531	-0.35452	-0.22886	0.0050283	-0.11294	-0.23913	0.62618	-0.30286	-0.072559	0.38591	0.15468	0.078402	0.68544	-0.34187	-0.039315	0.49884	0.23644	0.52146	0.36722	-0.51494	-0.29701	0.13336	-0.086546	-0.27692	0.63476	-0.12659	0.076661	0.4486	0.25676	0.36643
6	0.1392	-0.3047	-0.1739	0.034918	-0.070442	-0.061072	0.98268	0.14214	0.34624	0.75067	0.54561	0.48445	0.82353	-0.58885	-0.23861	0.51734	0.15131	0.68517	0.49925	-0.32185	-0.10408	0.30367	0.08839	0.10937	0.42333	-0.25346	-0.083037	0.2431	0.080396	0.14508	0.12512	-0.17945	-0.1056	0.036129	-0.034818	-0.11567	0.36941	-0.37467	-0.19606	0.17028	-0.010285	-0.080468	0.49691	-0.25885	-0.067699	0.30796	0.11501	0.10687	0.14614	-0.36791	-0.21689	0.033509	-0.090133	-0.23276	0.72409	0.1626	0.2873	0.56226	0.42252	0.57877	0.059066	-0.051638	-0.022797	0.026057	0.0021713	0.0086761	0.18575	-0.026247	0.020614	0.13032	0.076109	0.077327	0.22156	-0.12382	-0.028524	0.14916	0.058179	0.18622	0.055054	-0.094911	-0.055315	0.012283	-0.021693	-0.027964	0.066709	-0.094121	-0.045521	0.029398	-0.0075538	0.0048158	0.15124	-0.17958	-0.099717	0.057133	-0.022171	-0.11519	0.29901	-0.49878	-0.29242	0.11272	-0.090509	-0.1737	0.48247	-0.39977	-0.16584	0.27394	0.049383	-0.092717	0.1417	-0.39004	-0.2354	0.026026	-0.10189	-0.26418	0.7688	0.16762	0.29384	0.60238	0.44593	0.6069	0.13512	-0.35987	-0.22668	0.011528	-0.10777	-0.20978	0.65088	-0.24964	-0.037609	0.41793	0.1887	0.12088	0.72864	-0.38334	-0.045578	0.51757	0.24175	0.57879	0.4358	-0.47361	-0.24562	0.18701	-0.034702	-0.17864	0.55378	-0.1903	-0.0015602	0.36783	0.17872	0.24816
7	0.14347	-0.28905	-0.1621	0.038537	-0.06013	-0.022861	1.0005	0.17222	0.35777	0.77473	0.56799	0.52324	0.86776	-0.63961	-0.2625	0.5258	0.13329	0.70599	0.53339	-0.3032	-0.091516	0.33972	0.12139	0.19636	0.33997	-0.3211	-0.15697	0.15934	0.0030519	0.030041	0.1022	-0.19833	-0.11717	0.020777	-0.048296	-0.12405	0.36093	-0.34073	-0.174	0.17377	0.00049636	-0.065546	0.47814	-0.24234	-0.056787	0.29277	0.11575	0.12544	0.1735	-0.32332	-0.17327	0.056846	-0.058116	-0.17811	0.68122	0.15128	0.26625	0.53355	0.39777	0.53407	0.048334	-0.046254	-0.022419	0.018697	-0.0019524	0.003998	0.1777	-0.025286	0.015096	0.12052	0.06809	0.066017	0.21844	-0.11513	-0.022298	0.14388	0.059338	0.18034	0.048062	-0.099135	-0.057972	0.01264	-0.022112	-0.029173	0.07083	-0.074271	-0.031933	0.037183	0.0029626	0.018763	0.12143	-0.19301	-0.11274	0.033299	-0.03714	-0.12435	0.29439	-0.47105	-0.26957	0.1103	-0.080496	-0.1578	0.46451	-0.37003	-0.14436	0.2599	0.053156	-0.079353	0.16635	-0.33486	-0.18317	0.054109	-0.0647	-0.2048	0.74831	0.16554	0.28417	0.58204	0.4299	0.57395	0.13631	-0.36871	-0.22525	0.011879	-0.10627	-0.18021	0.63629	-0.23568	-0.010032	0.42986	0.20359	0.15636	0.7342	-0.40444	-0.06482	0.51271	0.22612	0.59222	0.48995	-0.42495	-0.1904	0.2489	0.019755	-0.066855	0.47652	-0.26056	-0.078844	0.27882	0.099926	0.12722
8	0.15064	-0.27717	-0.14217	0.05176	-0.045514	0.018361	1.0431	0.17164	0.3725	0.78767	0.57889	0.5553	0.88028	-0.67715	-0.29211	0.51576	0.10915	0.70542	0.54701	-0.27806	-0.069262	0.36607	0.14435	0.26767	0.26972	-0.3788	-0.21595	0.085631	-0.063559	-0.069371	0.092485	-0.20193	-0.12143	0.015278	-0.052411	-0.12232	0.3441	-0.30642	-0.14187	0.17598	0.016246	-0.042307	0.45149	-0.21072	-0.05813	0.27619	0.11334	0.14673	0.21555	-0.27874	-0.13165	0.079189	-0.029769	-0.1272	0.64093	0.13044	0.23051	0.49013	0.35814	0.47016	0.040017	-0.046652	-0.024641	0.013904	-0.0054338	-0.0043587	0.17662	-0.024938	0.01484	0.11923	0.066126	0.062308	0.21859	-0.11555	-0.018354	0.1419	0.059172	0.17971	0.046004	-0.10141	-0.059161	0.01177	-0.023113	-0.033514	0.076541	-0.064127	-0.022809	0.043222	0.010659	0.028725	0.10647	-0.20212	-0.1193	0.022026	-0.046674	-0.12805	0.27547	-0.42657	-0.23614	0.11622	-0.06216	-0.13156	0.43383	-0.34345	-0.13155	0.24307	0.053353	-0.054896	0.20009	-0.29411	-0.14092	0.079226	-0.033152	-0.14894	0.69332	0.15058	0.2534	0.53614	0.39328	0.51531	0.14773	-0.36134	-0.21444	0.018685	-0.099558	-0.1473	0.66666	-0.21166	0.0031633	0.42933	0.21053	0.19087	0.74767	-0.41215	-0.092912	0.49326	0.1992	0.5829	0.54028	-0.3797	-0.15026	0.29806	0.064149	0.034919	0.39313	-0.32143	-0.15152	0.19276	0.019934	0.0057704
9	0.15848	-0.25632	-0.1233	0.066128	-0.027846	0.060357	1.0671	0.18257	0.37084	0.79381	0.58064	0.57836	0.87215	-0.6969	-0.31582	0.49527	0.083492	0.69229	0.55521	-0.24336	-0.047458	0.3686	0.1555	0.31844	0.19959	-0.44057	-0.26754	0.029392	-0.116	-0.14703	0.086138	-0.19759	-0.11667	0.012184	-0.050317	-0.10894	0.33608	-0.27678	-0.11675	0.17282	0.026451	-0.020931	0.43101	-0.20008	-0.055889	0.26227	0.10656	0.15687	0.25129	-0.25353	-0.11181	0.10862	-0.0032947	-0.075295	0.58971	0.096664	0.19459	0.43863	0.31487	0.40142	0.037123	-0.047806	-0.025374	0.011322	-0.006831	-0.009659	0.17462	-0.022169	0.017303	0.12103	0.068414	0.06275	0.22573	-0.11374	-0.01752	0.14955	0.061959	0.18768	0.045863	-0.098739	-0.05624	0.0062343	-0.024074	-0.038663	0.078884	-0.06025	-0.018822	0.044826	0.013107	0.032366	0.09071	-0.19659	-0.11591	0.01727	-0.047087	-0.11796	0.27543	-0.38588	-0.20182	0.11686	-0.044844	-0.10462	0.41363	-0.30387	-0.12011	0.2268	0.051434	-0.032977	0.25363	-0.25158	-0.10414	0.10711	-0.0046505	-0.093686	0.64724	0.12219	0.21195	0.48575	0.34606	0.44144	0.14533	-0.33814	-0.19786	0.027095	-0.084611	-0.10595	0.67771	-0.20611	-0.00053575	0.42253	0.21072	0.21999	0.76028	-0.4319	-0.1128	0.46202	0.16913	0.56187	0.56724	-0.34811	-0.12402	0.32993	0.095203	0.11746	0.31258	-0.38845	-0.21778	0.10265	-0.055751	-0.10804
10	0.17015	-0.22374	-0.10096	0.079973	-0.0092746	0.099888	1.0642	0.18441	0.36505	0.78199	0.57568	0.59137	0.86035	-0.69496	-0.34154	0.47528	0.060118	0.67273	0.55248	-0.21054	-0.032313	0.35157	0.15498	0.3476	0.14864	-0.49188	-0.29227	-0.010396	-0.15178	-0.19989	0.080886	-0.19274	-0.10863	0.013588	-0.046131	-0.089982	0.32372	-0.25565	-0.10398	0.16336	0.028562	-0.0048994	0.41193	-0.19668	-0.056412	0.24564	0.094392	0.15162	0.26592	-0.21913	-0.087738	0.13607	0.02051	-0.023417	0.53994	0.068801	0.16186	0.39271	0.2748	0.33664	0.033542	-0.048795	-0.026112	0.0087174	-0.0081218	-0.012952	0.17725	-0.020457	0.018064	0.12289	0.069286	0.063624	0.23203	-0.11979	-0.015428	0.15307	0.063624	0.19377	0.043083	-0.095323	-0.05209	0.0054759	-0.022541	-0.039695	0.077713	-0.062211	-0.01678	0.045311	0.01369	0.033616	0.085005	-0.19762	-0.10989	0.018976	-0.043523	-0.099283	0.27762	-0.35082	-0.18233	0.10802	-0.037014	-0.083681	0.38329	-0.30035	-0.11882	0.20218	0.041608	-0.03081	0.28079	-0.23144	-0.08237	0.13859	0.021911	-0.036632	0.58459	0.094379	0.1788	0.42949	0.30093	0.36905	0.14982	-0.31237	-0.17326	0.040514	-0.065212	-0.059626	0.6654	-0.20661	-0.0068532	0.40577	0.20094	0.23773	0.73837	-0.44106	-0.14629	0.42332	0.13758	0.52662	0.5704	-0.30138	-0.10496	0.34122	0.11438	0.18108	0.23809	-0.44663	-0.27577	0.026878	-0.11792	-0.20227
11	0.18697	-0.19889	-0.083288	0.09321	0.0082692	0.13332	1.0563	0.18076	0.36336	0.76783	0.56601	0.59524	0.81702	-0.6956	-0.34505	0.45041	0.039637	0.64964	0.5177	-0.17006	-0.021774	0.32638	0.14467	0.35595	0.10607	-0.50348	-0.3129	-0.027564	-0.16993	-0.22638	0.081174	-0.18683	-0.099561	0.017897	-0.040372	-0.069252	0.29811	-0.22982	-0.09852	0.15152	0.025927	0.0068515	0.39025	-0.20031	-0.06296	0.22237	0.078946	0.13654	0.28593	-0.19029	-0.068527	0.15681	0.039024	0.022763	0.48804	0.040284	0.13464	0.35299	0.239	0.27803	0.029859	-0.051261	-0.026206	0.0067088	-0.0096844	-0.015616	0.17917	-0.019189	0.017696	0.12212	0.068541	0.064561	0.23494	-0.11699	-0.014887	0.15372	0.06358	0.19686	0.04304	-0.089933	-0.047649	0.0077455	-0.019362	-0.036966	0.077605	-0.060909	-0.016242	0.044222	0.013858	0.033293	0.084141	-0.1878	-0.10094	0.021475	-0.037865	-0.07703	0.24879	-0.32928	-0.17058	0.097451	-0.035436	-0.068523	0.36037	-0.29178	-0.12683	0.17677	0.029125	-0.042152	0.30243	-0.19933	-0.06416	0.16261	0.043576	0.016278	0.53121	0.058	0.14788	0.37764	0.26047	0.30302	0.14894	-0.28423	-0.14519	0.051439	-0.045064	-0.015184	0.63867	-0.21529	-0.015615	0.38326	0.18272	0.24342	0.68566	-0.44341	-0.16667	0.38169	0.10561	0.47869	0.54767	-0.26012	-0.074918	0.34012	0.12216	0.22482	0.17105	-0.48844	-0.31905	-0.017258	-0.16185	-0.27006
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21	0.18308	-0.090912	-0.030796	0.078291	0.0227	0.080573	0.99395	0.22673	0.3657	0.72119	0.54601	0.53897	0.96402	-0.68756	-0.25028	0.47539	0.092386	0.77692	0.17153	-0.32136	-0.14868	0.061616	-0.037648	-0.0094003	0.33323	-0.14208	-0.016661	0.18312	0.077125	0.18554	0.10176	-0.045821	-0.013504	0.046556	0.01434	0.022242	0.17643	-0.30313	-0.16447	0.04859	-0.057486	-0.054308	0.29328	-0.29713	-0.11893	0.11883	0.00033171	-0.075174	0.12629	-0.18806	-0.080274	0.03408	-0.01912	-0.0043133	0.42138	0.077098	0.16412	0.31598	0.23855	0.26606	0.019331	-0.031834	-0.013922	0.0053726	-0.004064	-0.002466	0.14944	-0.017544	0.0059877	0.086591	0.046554	0.075165	0.20603	-0.095222	-0.019319	0.11238	0.037405	0.18358	0.050657	-0.029923	-0.013541	0.019834	0.0029055	0.0084191	0.026167	-0.064014	-0.034857	0.0028196	-0.015041	-0.021886	0.11447	-0.045541	-0.010344	0.053935	0.019843	0.03338	0.13601	-0.37887	-0.21874	0.020415	-0.098846	-0.11984	0.31229	-0.43547	-0.19211	0.10339	-0.040849	-0.25693	0.14882	-0.19681	-0.078707	0.045337	-0.012957	0.011739	0.42422	0.058265	0.15414	0.31751	0.23525	0.25653	0.16803	-0.083129	-0.033674	0.06787	0.015925	0.022874	0.26438	-0.18774	-0.061894	0.13382	0.036404	0.07967	0.34565	-0.22357	-0.071813	0.17147	0.043698	0.22734	0.15707	-0.35753	-0.17639	0.035084	-0.061631	-0.078552	0.25289	-0.19535	-0.056115	0.12951	0.032756	0.050513
22	0.1636	-0.099659	-0.035001	0.066411	0.014614	0.063303	1.0107	0.23666	0.37452	0.73564	0.55794	0.54911	0.99514	-0.69577	-0.24462	0.50174	0.10599	0.82257	0.15801	-0.30475	-0.13876	0.056424	-0.034309	-0.019728	0.34557	-0.11441	-0.0064783	0.19296	0.086293	0.20365	0.095782	-0.04721	-0.015483	0.04252	0.012049	0.013757	0.18969	-0.31142	-0.16902	0.049938	-0.059439	-0.063154	0.3099	-0.29946	-0.12091	0.12759	0.0046487	-0.077061	0.11042	-0.20096	-0.091836	0.026643	-0.02705	-0.025768	0.43797	0.10458	0.17911	0.33304	0.25536	0.29416	0.017886	-0.029543	-0.012423	0.0059271	-0.0029816	-0.00089738	0.14454	-0.016154	0.0043268	0.081812	0.043632	0.073864	0.20117	-0.091397	-0.018545	0.10632	0.035251	0.1793	0.046695	-0.02792	-0.013067	0.016922	0.0018868	0.0080435	0.023098	-0.062386	-0.033088	0.0026525	-0.014618	-0.02213	0.11162	-0.043017	-0.011818	0.0503	0.017602	0.024708	0.14614	-0.38944	-0.22494	0.023722	-0.10001	-0.12947	0.31516	-0.44738	-0.19152	0.11524	-0.035513	-0.25876	0.12931	-0.21532	-0.089534	0.034576	-0.022565	-0.012732	0.44527	0.083678	0.1737	0.33594	0.25382	0.28794	0.14663	-0.089912	-0.038044	0.055431	0.0081539	0.0029177	0.26745	-0.1825	-0.059345	0.13968	0.039318	0.073813	0.34922	-0.21183	-0.060428	0.18051	0.054366	0.24443	0.13554	-0.36347	-0.1765	0.027046	-0.065083	-0.10353	0.29761	-0.1553	-0.030222	0.15041	0.053724	0.088034
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24	0.12541	-0.10804	-0.044332	0.046408	0.0012793	0.039156	1.0512	0.26151	0.38875	0.77283	0.58263	0.5783	1.0745	-0.73028	-0.23881	0.54095	0.12636	0.9109	0.15665	-0.26281	-0.097252	0.061117	-0.017445	-0.013279	0.34242	-0.092838	-0.007269	0.18517	0.0838	0.20496	0.086737	-0.059139	-0.021712	0.033348	0.0051295	-0.0052328	0.21205	-0.32615	-0.17987	0.059843	-0.058826	-0.074697	0.33345	-0.299	-0.11224	0.14665	0.014685	-0.070946	0.08463	-0.2208	-0.096549	0.016985	-0.034641	-0.057184	0.46676	0.14133	0.20101	0.35907	0.28102	0.33871	0.018776	-0.023437	-0.0096359	0.0063926	-0.001482	0.0007088	0.13318	-0.014504	0.0024384	0.073969	0.038612	0.070543	0.19281	-0.083933	-0.015807	0.098239	0.032319	0.17184	0.035942	-0.030072	-0.013522	0.011285	-0.00097498	0.0046022	0.021533	-0.056305	-0.028334	0.0042209	-0.011827	-0.018913	0.10357	-0.055707	-0.018046	0.039573	0.010293	0.0041566	0.17416	-0.41501	-0.23277	0.029853	-0.097532	-0.14228	0.33647	-0.44449	-0.18103	0.13727	-0.023076	-0.25068	0.094935	-0.22603	-0.10324	0.021825	-0.032997	-0.050375	0.48118	0.12869	0.20061	0.36518	0.28343	0.33989	0.11516	-0.10995	-0.049829	0.03395	-0.0070764	-0.030498	0.28272	-0.17201	-0.037879	0.1446	0.049873	0.074255	0.37025	-0.19372	-0.039353	0.19824	0.071912	0.28474	0.11882	-0.32742	-0.15352	0.024725	-0.05733	-0.1229	0.32444	-0.090997	-0.014183	0.16682	0.072802	0.1262
25	0.10913	-0.10954	-0.045729	0.037665	-0.0032392	0.033032	1.109	0.27036	0.39614	0.79064	0.59408	0.59572	1.1146	-0.76556	-0.24772	0.561	0.13268	0.9507	0.17175	-0.22947	-0.080813	0.069743	-0.0061699	0.00055255	0.32747	-0.094766	-0.012514	0.17323	0.074221	0.19103	0.082325	-0.066431	-0.024563	0.027173	0.0012584	-0.014169	0.22029	-0.3335	-0.17868	0.063946	-0.056956	-0.077328	0.34786	-0.30048	-0.11008	0.15236	0.01937	-0.064857	0.073946	-0.2152	-0.092888	0.015154	-0.034423	-0.065848	0.47724	0.15423	0.20728	0.3694	0.28873	0.35295	0.018687	-0.021511	-0.0087556	0.006521	-0.0010983	0.00076882	0.12978	-0.015118	0.001628	0.071032	0.036578	0.068745	0.19008	-0.080668	-0.013804	0.095646	0.031485	0.1689	0.029411	-0.030878	-0.014217	0.0088699	-0.0025135	0.0020299	0.022308	-0.052049	-0.02607	0.0051515	-0.0098048	-0.016002	0.09309	-0.061182	-0.020913	0.033339	0.0060319	-0.0059416	0.18978	-0.41243	-0.23196	0.034711	-0.094574	-0.14524	0.34692	-0.43731	-0.17558	0.14339	-0.017102	-0.24278	0.085203	-0.23135	-0.097976	0.01933	-0.033769	-0.061786	0.49793	0.14337	0.20799	0.37872	0.29299	0.35762	0.097104	-0.12026	-0.055304	0.024578	-0.01336	-0.04209	0.28519	-0.16019	-0.027145	0.14619	0.055906	0.07932	0.38622	-0.17034	-0.032041	0.2061	0.077591	0.30414	0.12489	-0.30721	-0.13616	0.029044	-0.047949	-0.11855	0.32102	-0.090564	-0.013292	0.16459	0.071618	0.12732
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33	0.098615	-0.088532	-0.023497	0.041433	0.0065676	0.073896	1.2149	0.30448	0.41637	0.85231	0.63249	0.70988	1.3057	-0.826	-0.27882	0.61142	0.12761	1.122	0.25319	-0.083356	-0.015265	0.10586	0.039679	0.12921	0.14288	-0.22894	-0.08949	0.036769	-0.023533	0.01613	0.03551	-0.081335	-0.031405	0.0083764	-0.010089	-0.027486	0.21385	-0.31251	-0.1641	0.067371	-0.045493	-0.061675	0.35671	-0.30459	-0.10952	0.14785	0.020765	-0.045912	0.13318	-0.099474	-0.026861	0.039002	0.0051565	-0.015539	0.44335	0.12045	0.18482	0.33633	0.2591	0.30665	0.011496	-0.01942	-0.0089867	0.0024231	-0.0030432	-0.0060885	0.116	-0.0099623	0.0012664	0.058249	0.029514	0.060359	0.17797	-0.065478	-0.0050169	0.081834	0.030361	0.162	0.017142	-0.035126	-0.015392	0.0034978	-0.0055344	-0.011547	0.032614	-0.028629	-0.0090289	0.012082	0.0013351	0.0031598	0.036773	-0.080048	-0.029284	0.0098998	-0.0084457	-0.025714	0.18825	-0.37503	-0.20172	0.048015	-0.073019	-0.12433	0.34478	-0.42708	-0.15676	0.14203	-0.0071378	-0.20385	0.14542	-0.1112	-0.025472	0.042426	0.0071538	-0.014173	0.45495	0.11817	0.18726	0.34503	0.26456	0.31661	0.06012	-0.1131	-0.042913	0.015607	-0.012177	-0.017237	0.2877	-0.074865	-0.0037643	0.13903	0.064223	0.13176	0.37096	-0.19436	-0.041793	0.17109	0.053264	0.32462	0.24827	-0.11673	-0.029373	0.081158	0.023097	0.027408	0.14115	-0.22619	-0.092964	0.024107	-0.028961	-0.0439
34	0.10725	-0.078616	-0.018862	0.043678	0.009601	0.079902	1.2253	0.30514	0.41254	0.85486	0.63247	0.71653	1.3048	-0.83782	-0.28361	0.60985	0.12662	1.1329	0.23787	-0.082741	-0.016177	0.097679	0.035947	0.13042	0.1367	-0.2317	-0.088912	0.030388	-0.025143	0.010247	0.038311	-0.080017	-0.028705	0.008567	-0.0086459	-0.023304	0.20803	-0.31833	-0.16314	0.066039	-0.046659	-0.060466	0.35771	-0.30817	-0.11355	0.14464	0.017587	-0.051764	0.13182	-0.091576	-0.023667	0.039664	0.0078555	-0.006673	0.43338	0.11155	0.1806	0.32696	0.25308	0.29514	0.010345	-0.019344	-0.0091878	0.0020735	-0.0032852	-0.0066052	0.11426	-0.0089855	0.0015171	0.05743	0.029095	0.060237	0.17809	-0.06524	-0.0045981	0.080413	0.029985	0.16183	0.017828	-0.032992	-0.014502	0.0036844	-0.0047498	-0.011069	0.031108	-0.028883	-0.0091854	0.011519	0.0011392	0.0029913	0.039239	-0.079303	-0.026603	0.010384	-0.0071098	-0.021397	0.19094	-0.37293	-0.19942	0.047007	-0.073172	-0.12203	0.3397	-0.43483	-0.16041	0.13825	-0.0097054	-0.20791	0.14938	-0.093609	-0.020641	0.043874	0.010457	-0.003992	0.4475	0.11273	0.18309	0.33381	0.25748	0.30349	0.061555	-0.10425	-0.036362	0.018552	-0.0083754	-0.0086937	0.27147	-0.075411	-0.0062832	0.13106	0.05995	0.13196	0.35723	-0.19941	-0.04464	0.15906	0.047415	0.31281	0.24102	-0.102	-0.026921	0.077441	0.0227	0.03606	0.11277	-0.24242	-0.10079	0.017214	-0.035072	-0.057433
35	0.11234	-0.071316	-0.014983	0.045268	0.012141	0.084316	1.2321	0.30655	0.41109	0.8565	0.63231	0.72182	1.3251	-0.85233	-0.28407	0.61482	0.12657	1.144	0.23344	-0.092002	-0.018296	0.088536	0.030964	0.12774	0.1351	-0.21415	-0.086155	0.030765	-0.023916	0.0094343	0.041743	-0.070673	-0.025537	0.0093073	-0.0069324	-0.018906	0.2086	-0.32244	-0.16465	0.064573	-0.048321	-0.060164	0.35642	-0.31959	-0.1156	0.14128	0.014362	-0.058945	0.13883	-0.078107	-0.02053	0.040929	0.0092701	0.00039595	0.42414	0.11021	0.17855	0.31935	0.24832	0.2855	0.0096184	-0.020553	-0.009232	0.0018611	-0.0034307	-0.0068937	0.11302	-0.0080986	0.0014796	0.056428	0.028637	0.060218	0.17753	-0.065342	-0.0046018	0.080294	0.029468	0.16149	0.01853	-0.030068	-0.013111	0.0042268	-0.0038922	-0.010217	0.029444	-0.028861	-0.0098095	0.010553	0.00067001	0.0022977	0.042855	-0.0734	-0.024325	0.011384	-0.0054343	-0.016698	0.18352	-0.3736	-0.19869	0.046908	-0.073925	-0.1207	0.33377	-0.44331	-0.1612	0.1352	-0.0124	-0.21359	0.14774	-0.081191	-0.017951	0.046299	0.012375	0.0043962	0.43543	0.10075	0.17916	0.32591	0.25166	0.29215	0.067033	-0.088988	-0.029714	0.020146	-0.0047611	-0.0012285	0.26065	-0.076185	-0.008843	0.12461	0.055292	0.13041	0.34402	-0.19493	-0.044384	0.14388	0.042311	0.30032	0.23386	-0.093557	-0.025953	0.073388	0.020251	0.0402	0.09618	-0.24351	-0.10111	0.01361	-0.037915	-0.065475
36	0.11245	-0.061629	-0.01265	0.047012	0.014049	0.086979	1.2366	0.30981	0.4117	0.85859	0.63227	0.72614	1.3458	-0.86875	-0.27807	0.61574	0.12753	1.1562	0.22245	-0.10663	-0.020485	0.078985	0.025269	0.12184	0.13326	-0.21002	-0.080524	0.035482	-0.02035	0.013037	0.04043	-0.063509	-0.021804	0.010312	-0.005108	-0.014641	0.20927	-0.32404	-0.16641	0.062195	-0.050343	-0.060781	0.3587	-0.32888	-0.11604	0.13747	0.011292	-0.067028	0.14036	-0.066655	-0.018771	0.039542	0.009466	0.0053907	0.41775	0.10674	0.17689	0.31673	0.24504	0.2782	0.0095721	-0.019803	-0.0093692	0.0016236	-0.003474	-0.0069602	0.11469	-0.007364	0.0015447	0.055516	0.028118	0.06025	0.17688	-0.064425	-0.0045089	0.078398	0.028824	0.16094	0.02061	-0.02756	-0.011968	0.004794	-0.003034	-0.0090994	0.027802	-0.028781	-0.0099475	0.0095021	7.92E-06	0.0012029	0.042347	-0.066547	-0.020281	0.012289	-0.0035891	-0.012013	0.17651	-0.3732	-0.20124	0.045319	-0.075143	-0.12038	0.33866	-0.45451	-0.16222	0.12723	-0.015001	-0.22044	0.14742	-0.068576	-0.016502	0.044042	0.012955	0.010613	0.42384	0.10132	0.17642	0.32049	0.2474	0.2832	0.071115	-0.075582	-0.022977	0.021833	-0.0015715	0.0047525	0.2483	-0.080025	-0.010669	0.11895	0.050556	0.12739	0.32731	-0.19069	-0.044995	0.13581	0.038159	0.28798	0.20916	-0.096885	-0.028126	0.064175	0.016222	0.040127	0.085626	-0.23639	-0.096063	0.013358	-0.037712	-0.068154
37	0.11769	-0.056012	-0.010366	0.04615	0.015254	0.087884	1.2412	0.30678	0.41313	0.85653	0.63256	0.72987	1.3674	-0.85855	-0.27819	0.61849	0.12945	1.1698	0.19618	-0.12367	-0.02589	0.070893	0.019384	0.11354	0.13424	-0.20371	-0.072414	0.040097	-0.015058	0.020158	0.041308	-0.057947	-0.018469	0.011122	-0.0033204	-0.0108	0.20533	-0.32769	-0.16639	0.059507	-0.052582	-0.062256	0.36051	-0.3371	-0.11955	0.13505	0.0085383	-0.075573	0.1321	-0.064641	-0.018572	0.036623	0.008595	0.008225	0.41354	0.10786	0.17587	0.31196	0.24329	0.27349	0.0093692	-0.019759	-0.0092816	0.0014974	-0.0034179	-0.0068265	0.11217	-0.005859	0.0012926	0.054379	0.027528	0.060289	0.17728	-0.064265	-0.0048806	0.076183	0.028076	0.16015	0.022909	-0.026218	-0.010173	0.005308	-0.0022356	-0.0078325	0.026275	-0.028018	-0.010405	0.0083171	-0.00076392	-0.00015552	0.04331	-0.061102	-0.016862	0.013145	-0.0017399	-0.0076811	0.17616	-0.37576	-0.20293	0.043954	-0.076672	-0.12103	0.33446	-0.46146	-0.16698	0.12404	-0.017331	-0.22797	0.14451	-0.064083	-0.016064	0.042408	0.012328	0.01449	0.41943	0.099361	0.17449	0.31639	0.2448	0.277	0.075545	-0.06582	-0.019509	0.02261	0.0010203	0.0090068	0.23146	-0.085495	-0.011445	0.11173	0.046015	0.12327	0.31913	-0.18793	-0.043424	0.12724	0.035065	0.27653	0.20877	-0.11469	-0.030821	0.054993	0.011145	0.036411	0.084092	-0.23061	-0.091171	0.01302	-0.034888	-0.065979
38	0.1187	-0.05181	-0.0095175	0.04578	0.015748	0.087156	1.259	0.30736	0.41165	0.86121	0.63332	0.73338	1.3904	-0.86473	-0.27881	0.62429	0.13221	1.1852	0.18067	-0.13491	-0.028792	0.062313	0.013781	0.10373	0.14311	-0.18171	-0.06351	0.043512	-0.0087043	0.02976	0.045708	-0.051225	-0.015232	0.011455	-0.001694	-0.007604	0.19875	-0.33605	-0.1685	0.057916	-0.054901	-0.064473	0.3464	-0.34907	-0.12024	0.13398	0.0062114	-0.084161	0.12079	-0.063779	-0.019597	0.034469	0.0068758	0.0089846	0.40779	0.1089	0.17591	0.31033	0.24302	0.27137	0.0091139	-0.019552	-0.0088242	0.0015282	-0.0032749	-0.0065266	0.11045	-0.0058631	0.0012038	0.052463	0.026865	0.060292	0.17675	-0.062618	-0.0048917	0.074462	0.027251	0.15912	0.023554	-0.022684	-0.00917	0.0057734	-0.0015455	-0.0065271	0.023639	-0.028454	-0.010913	0.0071064	-0.001566	-0.001639	0.047869	-0.053416	-0.013414	0.01413	-2.76E-05	-0.0039736	0.17296	-0.37482	-0.20461	0.043105	-0.078363	-0.12254	0.32817	-0.46433	-0.17007	0.12425	-0.01926	-0.23573	0.13884	-0.062369	-0.015506	0.039751	0.010695	0.016058	0.41267	0.10361	0.1758	0.31349	0.24387	0.27364	0.078046	-0.057996	-0.017109	0.023564	0.0029087	0.011453	0.21976	-0.094054	-0.01227	0.10467	0.041891	0.11842	0.31175	-0.17699	-0.040771	0.12108	0.033037	0.26653	0.20041	-0.12502	-0.032493	0.044733	0.0055643	0.029819	0.086755	-0.22589	-0.081637	0.016761	-0.030015	-0.059753
39	0.11824	-0.047592	-0.0088627	0.044887	0.01558	0.085025	1.2495	0.30271	0.41103	0.86474	0.63463	0.73702	1.4034	-0.87014	-0.27578	0.62408	0.13564	1.2023	0.16784	-0.14822	-0.032977	0.056193	0.0088466	0.093285	0.15593	-0.16453	-0.051943	0.048248	-0.0019414	0.040758	0.046566	-0.047708	-0.012787	0.0127	-0.00032346	-0.0051971	0.18818	-0.34061	-0.17141	0.056939	-0.057178	-0.067275	0.34219	-0.35994	-0.1237	0.13231	0.0043728	-0.092424	0.11533	-0.070208	-0.020479	0.030306	0.0045662	0.0078979	0.40501	0.11672	0.17821	0.3091	0.24405	0.27167	0.0086914	-0.018436	-0.0085046	0.0015884	-0.0030615	-0.0061022	0.10893	-0.0059568	0.00096436	0.051082	0.026134	0.060228	0.17399	-0.061595	-0.0047621	0.07154	0.026383	0.15785	0.022967	-0.020358	-0.0083645	0.0058729	-0.00099936	-0.005282	0.021342	-0.028479	-0.011249	0.0059078	-0.0023276	-0.0031181	0.051243	-0.045655	-0.010442	0.014519	0.0014398	-0.0010774	0.1755	-0.37534	-0.20589	0.042125	-0.080078	-0.12476	0.32796	-0.47289	-0.17389	0.12462	-0.020708	-0.24328	0.12682	-0.067436	-0.017282	0.035778	0.0083228	0.015512	0.40924	0.11061	0.17576	0.313	0.24446	0.27301	0.079936	-0.050785	-0.015565	0.023999	0.0040557	0.012154	0.20712	-0.093182	-0.011346	0.098482	0.038342	0.11324	0.30092	-0.17182	-0.039193	0.11769	0.031999	0.25836	0.17242	-0.14761	-0.036096	0.035032	-5.17E-06	0.021229	0.097468	-0.21354	-0.074281	0.018382	-0.023748	-0.050473
40	0.11819	-0.046876	-0.0091779	0.043192	0.014841	0.081795	1.2577	0.30257	0.41143	0.86871	0.63651	0.74106	1.4218	-0.8752	-0.27138	0.62798	0.13955	1.2213	0.15644	-0.15173	-0.036111	0.048547	0.0048645	0.083021	0.16438	-0.14814	-0.040483	0.054225	0.0046362	0.05211	0.047866	-0.045345	-0.010769	0.013059	0.00072801	-0.0036455	0.18602	-0.3421	-0.17486	0.056816	-0.059308	-0.07048	0.32975	-0.3714	-0.12791	0.13261	0.0030363	-0.10006	0.11058	-0.077292	-0.02264	0.02452	0.001933	0.0053002	0.40875	0.1192	0.18096	0.31069	0.24614	0.27405	0.0084941	-0.017386	-0.0079037	0.0016504	-0.0027961	-0.0055987	0.10656	-0.0062724	0.00085672	0.050201	0.025348	0.060074	0.17176	-0.060805	-0.0048873	0.069335	0.025502	0.15638	0.023521	-0.01876	-0.0076389	0.0058896	-0.00061506	-0.0041788	0.019199	-0.027859	-0.011997	0.0048756	-0.0029908	-0.0044809	0.052835	-0.042751	-0.008999	0.015256	0.0025839	0.00090515	0.17323	-0.37768	-0.20758	0.039911	-0.081697	-0.1275	0.33594	-0.49253	-0.17341	0.1234	-0.021648	-0.25027	0.12184	-0.077187	-0.018928	0.030905	0.0055027	0.01318	0.40952	0.11784	0.17997	0.31395	0.24631	0.27479	0.083058	-0.047729	-0.014316	0.024145	0.0044839	0.011295	0.2047	-0.090089	-0.011853	0.092175	0.035464	0.1081	0.29921	-0.15963	-0.036513	0.11489	0.031809	0.25221	0.1435	-0.15743	-0.039102	0.027952	-0.0051177	0.011551	0.10947	-0.19331	-0.062242	0.025127	-0.016757	-0.03923

Return to Figure 11

Figure A.12A: Output and Nominal Rates (Large VAR, Full Sample) Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Periods	Green Total	Red MP	Blue N-Tech	Black I-Tech	Blue-label News	Black-label Rest
-8	0.6955	0.0965	-0.1095	0.0074	0.2181	0.483
-7	0.9525	0.118	-0.0789	0.0193	0.317	0.5771
-6	1.1644	0.132	-0.043	0.0314	0.4006	0.6435
-5	1.3431	0.1399	0.0025	0.0471	0.4791	0.6744
-4	1.492	0.1421	0.0625	0.0681	0.5599	0.6594
-3	1.5836	0.1351	0.1363	0.0912	0.6326	0.5882
-2	1.5579	0.1129	0.2129	0.1082	0.666	0.458
-1	1.353	0.0709	0.2727	0.1096	0.622	0.2778
0	0.9484	0.0117	0.2971	0.0903	0.48	0.0693
1	0.3917	-0.0539	0.2776	0.0533	0.2536	-0.1389
2	-0.2126	-0.1105	0.2207	0.0086	-0.011	-0.3205
3	-0.7484	-0.1459	0.1443	-0.0317	-0.2564	-0.4587
4	-1.1378	-0.1568	0.0679	-0.0594	-0.4409	-0.5487
5	-1.365	-0.1488	0.0035	-0.0729	-0.5526	-0.5941
6	-1.4619	-0.1319	-0.0472	-0.0762	-0.6051	-0.6016
7	-1.4713	-0.1134	-0.0881	-0.0744	-0.619	-0.5764
8	-1.4168	-0.095	-0.1231	-0.0706	-0.6063	-0.5218

Return to Figure 12a

Figure A.12B: Output and Nominal Rates (Large VAR, Full Sample) Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance

Periods	MP Light Band, 95%-ub	MP Light Band, 95%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	MP Mean, Solid line	MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	N-Tech Mean, Solid line	N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	I-Tech Mean, Solid line	I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	News Light Band, 95%-ub	News Light Band, 95%-lb	News Dark Band, 68%-lb	News Dark Band, 68%-ub	News Mean, Solid line	News VAR estimate, Dashed line	Total Light Band, 95%-ub	Total Light Band, 95%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-ub	Total Mean, Solid line	Total VAR estimate, Dashed line
-8	0.69439	-0.19584	0.12374	0.53374	0.32441	0.48101	0.80093	-0.63548	-0.35141	0.57464	0.092854	-0.35756	0.77971	-0.4646	-0.12433	0.54115	0.20907	0.059661	0.70866	-0.30223	-0.026137	0.48309	0.23519	0.26839	0.56906	-0.095475	0.092201	0.42557	0.25999	0.29305
-7	0.77184	-0.18485	0.21274	0.62747	0.41572	0.58795	0.86006	-0.66328	-0.30099	0.67034	0.18529	-0.25765	0.84077	-0.47476	-0.079431	0.64009	0.28895	0.1564	0.79919	-0.26517	0.076005	0.61248	0.34799	0.39015	0.66698	-0.00078873	0.19491	0.5354	0.36694	0.40136
-6	0.82504	-0.18546	0.2708	0.69426	0.47915	0.6577	0.90844	-0.68306	-0.25805	0.76193	0.26965	-0.14043	0.87463	-0.49993	-0.033016	0.70364	0.34779	0.25433	0.86528	-0.25615	0.18422	0.70554	0.44363	0.49297	0.73466	0.098201	0.28443	0.62077	0.45565	0.49067
-5	0.86596	-0.19254	0.32554	0.74629	0.52816	0.6973	0.9431	-0.71332	-0.17327	0.83552	0.35055	0.0080507	0.88897	-0.49175	0.038173	0.75227	0.40607	0.38145	0.90342	-0.16555	0.30447	0.77445	0.53588	0.5896	0.78317	0.18093	0.37136	0.68515	0.53246	0.56594
-4	0.88813	-0.11993	0.38432	0.77013	0.57207	0.70816	0.96059	-0.68272	-0.058349	0.85896	0.43141	0.20412	0.8977	-0.41824	0.15001	0.79184	0.4822	0.55152	0.91995	0.01525	0.46351	0.81983	0.63264	0.68905	0.81838	0.2855	0.46186	0.7328	0.59991	0.62871
-3	0.89254	0.00101	0.43029	0.7757	0.59736	0.67342	0.95819	-0.56304	0.083748	0.86362	0.50468	0.44513	0.91353	-0.30389	0.3222	0.81933	0.56936	0.73859	0.92948	0.24924	0.60835	0.84805	0.71829	0.77852	0.82901	0.38084	0.53581	0.75446	0.64572	0.66728
-2	0.87105	0.018315	0.40209	0.74567	0.56647	0.56236	0.94995	-0.48705	0.19851	0.86522	0.54857	0.69489	0.93069	-0.21387	0.40192	0.84949	0.6281	0.876	0.93524	0.33708	0.63584	0.87713	0.7521	0.81959	0.80981	0.40924	0.53957	0.74248	0.64231	0.65645
-1	0.85499	-0.10451	0.2466	0.65381	0.44024	0.35309	0.9493	-0.49097	0.1626	0.8745	0.53535	0.89043	0.95312	-0.2692	0.33596	0.87188	0.60482	0.88725	0.96431	0.16039	0.50343	0.88351	0.6883	0.76549	0.74818	0.31667	0.4511	0.66811	0.5606	0.57012
0	0.77849	-0.3583	-0.039022	0.46619	0.2102	0.058065	0.94348	-0.54724	-0.0022953	0.84947	0.4477	0.97009	0.94235	-0.41948	0.12262	0.79946	0.46625	0.7312	0.91205	-0.11357	0.26329	0.76103	0.50637	0.59065	0.61752	0.12604	0.26493	0.50934	0.39031	0.39963
1	0.63609	-0.63042	-0.36664	0.19934	-0.083889	-0.26845	0.88554	-0.63371	-0.20718	0.74025	0.29223	0.90623	0.82166	-0.57693	-0.13904	0.58726	0.22588	0.4317	0.73543	-0.3865	-0.03294	0.50718	0.23032	0.31203	0.40559	-0.12128	0.021775	0.2819	0.15248	0.16505
2	0.42687	-0.8489	-0.6442	-0.098247	-0.36717	-0.55052	0.75177	-0.71782	-0.37563	0.54593	0.099987	0.72049	0.60814	-0.75059	-0.41647	0.29277	-0.057507	0.069898	0.47026	-0.65056	-0.34964	0.19525	-0.078016	-0.013522	0.15519	-0.37237	-0.24126	0.022824	-0.10582	-0.089592
3	0.2078	-0.9098	-0.7977	-0.34457	-0.56725	-0.7272	0.60385	-0.76068	-0.51226	0.33266	-0.087417	0.47122	0.40396	-0.83356	-0.63221	-0.00084734	-0.3097	-0.25654	0.20973	-0.80886	-0.60319	-0.091634	-0.34856	-0.31555	-0.074736	-0.57158	-0.45959	-0.20627	-0.33224	-0.31536
4	0.11146	-0.89333	-0.82504	-0.50366	-0.65097	-0.78141	0.48066	-0.78729	-0.60952	0.13584	-0.23716	0.22175	0.2422	-0.88654	-0.73928	-0.22166	-0.47906	-0.48072	0.021405	-0.87774	-0.75074	-0.32376	-0.53584	-0.54255	-0.25208	-0.69976	-0.60846	-0.3803	-0.49215	-0.47946
5	0.12013	-0.89027	-0.80845	-0.48715	-0.63552	-0.74169	0.36915	-0.82118	-0.66415	0.0094746	-0.33747	0.011264	0.18496	-0.90536	-0.79471	-0.33238	-0.55708	-0.59033	-0.096626	-0.89917	-0.81213	-0.4692	-0.63396	-0.68007	-0.34461	-0.76447	-0.68249	-0.47811	-0.57935	-0.5752
6	0.26268	-0.88965	-0.78527	-0.3619	-0.56816	-0.65713	0.3239	-0.84998	-0.69879	-0.078671	-0.39578	-0.15405	0.19188	-0.90247	-0.80571	-0.34433	-0.57021	-0.6167	-0.14438	-0.90117	-0.82546	-0.51287	-0.66642	-0.7446	-0.36016	-0.78891	-0.71679	-0.50408	-0.60926	-0.61601
7	0.33805	-0.88646	-0.75688	-0.22285	-0.49143	-0.56497	0.31434	-0.86096	-0.71005	-0.12447	-0.42623	-0.28774	0.18514	-0.89485	-0.79575	-0.30082	-0.55258	-0.60215	-0.098336	-0.90268	-0.82702	-0.50315	-0.66145	-0.76176	-0.32527	-0.80201	-0.72216	-0.47684	-0.60196	-0.61999
8	0.29881	-0.86485	-0.71356	-0.13143	-0.41969	-0.47343	0.30016	-0.85202	-0.71224	-0.14134	-0.43699	-0.40174	0.19455	-0.88277	-0.76596	-0.26397	-0.52178	-0.57152	-0.082631	-0.89313	-0.81376	-0.46667	-0.63242	-0.74619	-0.27303	-0.79494	-0.7019	-0.43116	-0.56833	-0.59703

Return to Figure 12b

Figure A.13A: Output and Nominal Rates (Large VAR, Great Moderation) Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Periods	Green Total	Red MP	Blue N-Tech	Black I-Tech	Blue-label News	Black-label Rest
-8	-0.0831	-0.0081	-0.0592	-0.021	0.0114	-0.0062
-7	0.069	-0.0062	0.0126	-0.0263	0.0733	0.0156
-6	0.2292	-0.0037	0.0859	-0.0305	0.1363	0.0411
-5	0.3901	-0.0002	0.1545	-0.0327	0.1973	0.0713
-4	0.54	0.004	0.2126	-0.0319	0.2509	0.1043
-3	0.6603	0.0084	0.2552	-0.0271	0.29	0.1338
-2	0.729	0.0121	0.2778	-0.0185	0.3075	0.1501
-1	0.728	0.0144	0.2779	-0.0077	0.2987	0.1447
0	0.6524	0.0152	0.2554	0.0029	0.2636	0.1153
1	0.5141	0.0146	0.2136	0.0113	0.2066	0.0679
2	0.3382	0.0133	0.1585	0.0165	0.1351	0.0146
3	0.1532	0.0115	0.0975	0.0192	0.0571	-0.0321
4	-0.0189	0.0093	0.0368	0.0202	-0.0207	-0.0646
5	-0.167	0.0065	-0.019	0.0206	-0.093	-0.0821
6	-0.2887	0.0031	-0.0678	0.0205	-0.1559	-0.0887
7	-0.3846	-0.0007	-0.1085	0.0195	-0.2055	-0.0893
8	-0.4537	-0.0045	-0.1403	0.0171	-0.2392	-0.0868

Return to Figure 13a

Figure A.13B: Output and Nominal Rates (Large VAR, Great Moderation) Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance

Periods	MP Light Band, 95%-ub	MP Light Band, 95%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	MP Mean, Solid line	MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	N-Tech Mean, Solid line	N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	I-Tech Mean, Solid line	I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	News Light Band, 95%-ub	News Light Band, 95%-lb	News Dark Band, 68%-lb	News Dark Band, 68%-ub	News Mean, Solid line	News VAR estimate, Dashed line	Total Light Band, 95%-ub	Total Light Band, 95%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-ub	Total Mean, Solid line	Total VAR estimate, Dashed line
-8	0.65601	-0.69105	-0.41423	0.38761	-0.010082	-0.43969	0.69677	-0.80482	-0.59711	0.21891	-0.19939	-0.19342	0.72535	-0.8119	-0.60315	0.37886	-0.1272	-0.56915	0.68386	-0.74265	-0.46546	0.29468	-0.093063	0.036333	0.37128	-0.55239	-0.36625	0.12212	-0.12867	-0.077018
-7	0.70233	-0.67902	-0.34542	0.47768	0.079905	-0.33874	0.78464	-0.74059	-0.46607	0.40462	-0.041917	0.041335	0.78	-0.80879	-0.52927	0.48206	-0.023876	-0.71223	0.76689	-0.66067	-0.3371	0.45262	0.056749	0.23307	0.50665	-0.4618	-0.24522	0.2585	0.0051164	0.063967
-6	0.75931	-0.68039	-0.25828	0.57508	0.17581	-0.19964	0.85716	-0.67974	-0.30804	0.57739	0.12465	0.28092	0.83316	-0.77343	-0.44108	0.58867	0.09109	-0.82448	0.82937	-0.58114	-0.16288	0.60705	0.22563	0.43352	0.61249	-0.34588	-0.098381	0.40731	0.15124	0.21251
-5	0.82947	-0.63761	-0.15556	0.67109	0.28368	-0.011697	0.89991	-0.5762	-0.11988	0.69304	0.29168	0.50513	0.88346	-0.74372	-0.32394	0.68984	0.21439	-0.88506	0.89341	-0.45486	0.051585	0.73902	0.40247	0.62737	0.7151	-0.21524	0.062303	0.54964	0.30337	0.36177
-4	0.89893	-0.60851	-0.023978	0.76897	0.39795	0.21755	0.92293	-0.5093	0.11366	0.78229	0.45063	0.69516	0.93079	-0.69451	-0.17033	0.77694	0.3386	-0.86233	0.94105	-0.29652	0.26552	0.84969	0.56502	0.79783	0.80758	-0.041596	0.2192	0.67681	0.44997	0.50073
-3	0.94619	-0.52715	0.10395	0.85081	0.49484	0.45608	0.94088	-0.32221	0.33424	0.85313	0.58801	0.8342	0.94901	-0.63233	-0.036275	0.85414	0.44889	-0.73223	0.97138	-0.23669	0.42435	0.92132	0.68326	0.92225	0.87006	0.096251	0.36781	0.7688	0.57202	0.61232
-2	0.96866	-0.51248	0.14049	0.89312	0.53996	0.65799	0.95342	-0.33222	0.49035	0.90034	0.68365	0.90825	0.96841	-0.61359	0.09214	0.8994	0.52443	-0.5001	0.98869	-0.2683	0.49357	0.95764	0.72963	0.97784	0.91045	0.18936	0.47071	0.82298	0.64599	0.676
-1	0.97147	-0.57619	0.027626	0.89628	0.50753	0.78539	0.97364	-0.38996	0.51595	0.92841	0.71611	0.90855	0.97532	-0.62491	0.10321	0.91345	0.54562	-0.2083	0.9918	-0.45883	0.37631	0.96242	0.69113	0.94996	0.91588	0.17751	0.48191	0.83175	0.65234	0.67509
0	0.9569	-0.68148	-0.14385	0.85755	0.39813	0.82642	0.9666	-0.44115	0.44529	0.91488	0.67303	0.83502	0.96972	-0.66917	0.0094303	0.90151	0.50356	0.079012	0.98156	-0.60341	0.19126	0.91985	0.57596	0.83826	0.88506	0.082663	0.39848	0.78522	0.58515	0.60495
1	0.93064	-0.80295	-0.34999	0.76402	0.24171	0.79663	0.9187	-0.48609	0.30759	0.83923	0.55961	0.69834	0.94691	-0.7053	-0.12791	0.84713	0.40558	0.30558	0.93738	-0.73835	-0.063732	0.82198	0.41035	0.65702	0.81674	-0.083239	0.23689	0.68356	0.45655	0.47669
2	0.89054	-0.87288	-0.52897	0.63562	0.082458	0.72346	0.83414	-0.5552	0.10027	0.69767	0.39868	0.51831	0.91098	-0.74766	-0.27269	0.75544	0.27295	0.44782	0.8676	-0.81491	-0.27225	0.67804	0.22722	0.42975	0.724	-0.25047	0.041101	0.53883	0.29263	0.31357
3	0.82768	-0.87977	-0.62885	0.50673	-0.044482	0.62617	0.7157	-0.59133	-0.093666	0.51867	0.22146	0.31862	0.85536	-0.7851	-0.40337	0.61969	0.13163	0.5182	0.78965	-0.81062	-0.41821	0.50312	0.053543	0.18165	0.60253	-0.39928	-0.13647	0.37412	0.12288	0.14202
4	0.79659	-0.85699	-0.65102	0.39748	-0.12869	0.5064	0.60727	-0.60186	-0.24686	0.33651	0.054723	0.12035	0.77927	-0.79968	-0.50619	0.48473	0.001878	0.54714	0.70458	-0.79564	-0.52226	0.32393	-0.096609	-0.065741	0.48071	-0.51296	-0.29103	0.22521	-0.030523	-0.017551
5	0.76793	-0.84186	-0.64401	0.32699	-0.18278	0.35519	0.47905	-0.65932	-0.36351	0.17539	-0.087517	-0.062244	0.6875	-0.82122	-0.57184	0.35095	-0.10707	0.55818	0.64876	-0.82637	-0.58733	0.14838	-0.22058	-0.29589	0.36938	-0.5981	-0.41193	0.088578	-0.15762	-0.15487
6	0.75871	-0.8637	-0.6598	0.26202	-0.22665	0.16889	0.36556	-0.67158	-0.45074	0.045383	-0.20347	-0.22177	0.64982	-0.84121	-0.62248	0.25763	-0.19519	0.55492	0.57257	-0.85662	-0.67958	0.0061225	-0.32035	-0.49561	0.25054	-0.65604	-0.49318	-0.022604	-0.25808	-0.26773
7	0.70829	-0.88971	-0.68816	0.2099	-0.27072	-0.039858	0.25753	-0.72132	-0.52171	-0.073487	-0.29646	-0.3548	0.61017	-0.8573	-0.66494	0.15462	-0.26533	0.52643	0.50408	-0.88667	-0.72432	-0.077963	-0.39628	-0.65355	0.16295	-0.70968	-0.55491	-0.11608	-0.33461	-0.35664
8	0.66555	-0.90086	-0.72424	0.15891	-0.31005	-0.2447	0.22212	-0.76036	-0.57566	-0.15882	-0.36771	-0.45865	0.55853	-0.87023	-0.69172	0.08156	-0.31791	0.46355	0.47985	-0.90882	-0.7625	-0.11619	-0.44551	-0.76071	0.093671	-0.74529	-0.6016	-0.18148	-0.3878	-0.4207

Return to Figure 13b

Figure A.14A: Output and Nominal Rates (Large VAR, Great Inflation) Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Periods	Green Total	Red MP	Blue N-Tech	Black I-Tech	Blue-label News	Pink Label Nom Trend	Black-label Rest
-8	0.5309	0.0485	0.0945	0.0408	0.0981	0.0585	0.1905
-7	1.13	0.0706	0.1176	0.1147	0.2164	0.2688	0.3418
-6	1.7001	0.0889	0.1367	0.1845	0.3272	0.4775	0.4853
-5	2.205	0.1041	0.1493	0.2421	0.4203	0.6764	0.6128
-4	2.5892	0.1161	0.1505	0.2789	0.485	0.8532	0.7056
-3	2.7721	0.1214	0.1355	0.2878	0.5105	0.9827	0.7342
-2	2.6684	0.1135	0.1025	0.2654	0.4884	1.028	0.6706
-1	2.2297	0.087	0.0554	0.2138	0.4147	0.9535	0.5054
0	1.4834	0.0419	0.0027	0.1404	0.294	0.7452	0.2593
1	0.5402	-0.0142	-0.0459	0.0566	0.1398	0.4242	-0.0203
2	-0.4385	-0.0684	-0.0835	-0.0257	-0.0271	0.0447	-0.2784
3	-1.2979	-0.109	-0.1084	-0.0966	-0.1842	-0.3258	-0.4737
4	-1.9378	-0.1301	-0.1226	-0.1504	-0.3134	-0.6303	-0.591
5	-2.3274	-0.1329	-0.1292	-0.185	-0.4041	-0.8383	-0.638
6	-2.4853	-0.1232	-0.1297	-0.201	-0.4534	-0.9463	-0.6316
7	-2.4452	-0.1069	-0.1236	-0.2006	-0.4636	-0.9657	-0.5849
8	-2.2341	-0.0864	-0.1096	-0.186	-0.4386	-0.9103	-0.5031

Return to Figure 14a

Figure A.14B: Output and Nominal Rates (Large VAR, Great Inflation) Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance

Periods	MP Light Band, 95%-ub	MP Light Band, 95%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	MP Mean, Solid line	MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	N-Tech Mean, Solid line	N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	I-Tech Mean, Solid line	I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	News Light Band, 95%-ub	News Light Band, 95%-lb	News Dark Band, 68%-lb	News Dark Band, 68%-ub	News Mean, Solid line	News VAR estimate, Dashed line	Nom Trend Light Band, 95%-ub	Nom Trend Light Band, 95%-lb	Nom Trend Dark Band, 68%-lb	Nom Trend Dark Band, 68%-ub	Nom Trend Mean, Solid line	Nom Trend VAR estimate, Dashed line	Total Light Band, 95%-ub	Total Light Band, 95%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-ub	Total Mean, Solid line	Total VAR estimate, Dashed line
-8	0.61197	-0.33304	-0.061293	0.4197	0.17672	0.27183	0.7109	-0.59687	-0.24499	0.50101	0.14631	0.50088	0.66284	-0.50092	-0.21404	0.40162	0.1039	0.13701	0.56919	-0.3938	-0.14562	0.33607	0.095527	0.17847	0.50178	-0.33965	-0.14833	0.27034	0.063311	0.050072	0.51105	-0.3261	-0.12475	0.29816	0.094632	0.15758
-7	0.72171	-0.24363	0.055306	0.55116	0.30664	0.39605	0.8036	-0.54934	-0.075989	0.63989	0.30476	0.6233	0.7697	-0.39464	-0.029147	0.57294	0.27676	0.38562	0.69717	-0.30185	-0.028711	0.49257	0.23602	0.39343	0.64772	-0.20482	0.0079168	0.44966	0.22976	0.23005	0.6699	-0.1786	0.050115	0.47943	0.26715	0.33538
-6	0.80886	-0.17693	0.16711	0.67095	0.42168	0.4982	0.87726	-0.45986	0.13576	0.75832	0.46236	0.72473	0.86633	-0.25066	0.15491	0.72429	0.44703	0.62012	0.80117	-0.24817	0.064567	0.65143	0.36884	0.59507	0.774	-0.089132	0.15934	0.61468	0.39246	0.40864	0.78277	-0.00099439	0.22814	0.6402	0.43782	0.50461
-5	0.8787	-0.11427	0.26088	0.76264	0.52233	0.58353	0.92728	-0.35862	0.36614	0.84418	0.60237	0.79156	0.93586	-0.1035	0.35742	0.83889	0.60345	0.81353	0.89523	-0.22427	0.22155	0.78169	0.50874	0.76438	0.87837	0.049201	0.32939	0.7581	0.54666	0.57885	0.87478	0.1823	0.41837	0.7715	0.59701	0.65447
-4	0.91835	-0.071648	0.38294	0.82603	0.60497	0.65101	0.95964	-0.27157	0.5308	0.89601	0.69925	0.7981	0.96884	0.076385	0.54657	0.91519	0.72663	0.93721	0.94821	-0.02282	0.43374	0.87783	0.65505	0.88189	0.93701	0.20345	0.51104	0.86444	0.68476	0.73008	0.92154	0.3924	0.59734	0.85824	0.72716	0.76851
-3	0.93156	-0.06976	0.47277	0.84988	0.65133	0.6806	0.97366	-0.072492	0.56802	0.91795	0.72437	0.7182	0.97928	0.17531	0.65314	0.93929	0.78865	0.96718	0.9674	0.27397	0.63431	0.91836	0.77267	0.92843	0.9617	0.35711	0.67117	0.91129	0.78686	0.84092	0.93085	0.5516	0.70687	0.88892	0.80014	0.8228
-2	0.91588	-0.095034	0.47367	0.82142	0.63025	0.63632	0.96666	-0.13126	0.44577	0.88912	0.65776	0.5432	0.97618	0.16823	0.61192	0.92257	0.76189	0.89196	0.96785	0.46096	0.68526	0.91898	0.80085	0.88815	0.95213	0.46746	0.7454	0.91422	0.82007	0.87969	0.91044	0.58061	0.70435	0.86359	0.78455	0.792
-1	0.86766	-0.17229	0.33535	0.71643	0.51446	0.48747	0.91508	-0.29259	0.22817	0.76865	0.49939	0.29347	0.93729	-0.044289	0.45083	0.83487	0.63336	0.71835	0.92845	0.30408	0.54502	0.83823	0.68887	0.7542	0.92948	0.43052	0.65022	0.86331	0.75101	0.81595	0.83244	0.42859	0.55898	0.7595	0.66111	0.66179
0	0.74393	-0.33148	0.080385	0.53782	0.30224	0.23461	0.79498	-0.47034	-0.014624	0.56745	0.273	0.01424	0.83575	-0.26807	0.18571	0.6611	0.41578	0.47177	0.78952	-0.049447	0.24771	0.62149	0.43463	0.53456	0.84446	0.20469	0.42598	0.70906	0.5659	0.63764	0.65674	0.16877	0.31692	0.55438	0.43707	0.44028
1	0.62068	-0.60818	-0.22958	0.2769	0.027719	-0.079365	0.62564	-0.60982	-0.26706	0.29151	0.019184	-0.24315	0.68482	-0.49979	-0.12168	0.40289	0.14686	0.19012	0.52285	-0.47049	-0.11491	0.30993	0.096253	0.25417	0.65493	-0.12095	0.12622	0.44805	0.28478	0.36301	0.41586	-0.13627	0.015873	0.27918	0.14926	0.16035
2	0.43282	-0.77919	-0.52109	0.00035407	-0.24979	-0.38358	0.39735	-0.69431	-0.47272	0.023921	-0.21891	-0.44272	0.48523	-0.68824	-0.3932	0.139	-0.12404	-0.086326	0.21356	-0.75221	-0.45502	-0.021842	-0.23437	-0.049277	0.37821	-0.46294	-0.21514	0.13015	-0.040882	0.038221	0.13301	-0.41918	-0.28333	-0.019267	-0.1478	-0.13014
3	0.29825	-0.86038	-0.7157	-0.26667	-0.47204	-0.6113	0.21681	-0.77041	-0.62624	-0.19831	-0.40932	-0.57467	0.29015	-0.78522	-0.58983	-0.1129	-0.3543	-0.32476	-0.056082	-0.80426	-0.6634	-0.31081	-0.47903	-0.33505	0.07302	-0.733	-0.51964	-0.18069	-0.34745	-0.27882	-0.13041	-0.64193	-0.52827	-0.28471	-0.4024	-0.38522
4	0.13713	-0.88	-0.78803	-0.45503	-0.60677	-0.72915	0.090585	-0.84848	-0.73964	-0.33745	-0.53757	-0.65001	0.14379	-0.84799	-0.72556	-0.31346	-0.52078	-0.50542	-0.16769	-0.86052	-0.75538	-0.4785	-0.60888	-0.56995	-0.19897	-0.87244	-0.73651	-0.44148	-0.58382	-0.53936	-0.34172	-0.76764	-0.68985	-0.47891	-0.58283	-0.57515
5	0.091251	-0.91037	-0.84295	-0.47665	-0.65536	-0.7448	0.04036	-0.90186	-0.81501	-0.39461	-0.60398	-0.68501	0.055252	-0.89941	-0.81512	-0.43153	-0.6205	-0.62159	0.007283	-0.90076	-0.83001	-0.4655	-0.64551	-0.73485	-0.40524	-0.91281	-0.84819	-0.61577	-0.72693	-0.71739	-0.41585	-0.84869	-0.78237	-0.57919	-0.68203	-0.6908
6	0.14181	-0.94206	-0.86953	-0.3891	-0.64057	-0.69085	0.018547	-0.93437	-0.84427	-0.38749	-0.61586	-0.68769	0.068532	-0.944	-0.86867	-0.46137	-0.66149	-0.6756	0.17385	-0.93381	-0.8663	-0.3783	-0.63106	-0.82456	-0.46489	-0.94251	-0.88896	-0.68039	-0.78064	-0.80977	-0.37209	-0.90145	-0.8283	-0.59041	-0.70976	-0.73765
7	0.15957	-0.9451	-0.86184	-0.26736	-0.58566	-0.59915	0.060172	-0.93904	-0.82913	-0.32688	-0.58094	-0.65513	0.10048	-0.95287	-0.87526	-0.42564	-0.65218	-0.67409	0.1879	-0.93504	-0.85547	-0.3092	-0.59356	-0.84297	-0.32737	-0.94595	-0.896	-0.64142	-0.76228	-0.82636	-0.27239	-0.90431	-0.83008	-0.52943	-0.67998	-0.72574
8	0.2018	-0.9195	-0.80233	-0.17025	-0.50104	-0.48453	0.096843	-0.898	-0.75575	-0.25489	-0.50553	-0.58115	0.12909	-0.93212	-0.83556	-0.35462	-0.59693	-0.6251	0.092638	-0.90941	-0.80136	-0.24117	-0.53308	-0.7976	-0.11291	-0.92975	-0.85906	-0.52644	-0.68851	-0.77896	-0.16917	-0.88038	-0.7844	-0.42971	-0.60291	-0.6631

Return to Figure 14b

Figure A.15: Impulse Responses (Full Sample w/Nominal Trend)

Periods	(y) MP Light Band, 95%-ub	(y) MP Light Band, 95%-lb	(y) MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	(y) MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	(y) MP Mean, Solid line	(y) MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	(y) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(y) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(y) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(y) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(y) N-Tech Mean, Solid line	(y) N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(y) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(y) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(y) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(y) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(y) I-Tech Mean, Solid line	(y) I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(y) News Light Band, 95%-ub	(y) News Light Band, 95%-lb	(y) News Dark Band, 68%-lb	(y) News Dark Band, 68%-ub	(y) News Mean, Solid line	(y) News VAR estimate, Dashed line	(y) Nom. Trend Light Band, 95%-ub	(y) Nom. Trend Light Band, 95%-lb	(y) Nom. Trend Dark Band, 68%-lb	(y) Nom. Trend Dark Band, 68%-ub	(y) Nom. Trend Mean, Solid line	(y) Nom. Trend VAR estimate, Dashed line	(i) MP Light Band, 95%-ub	(i) MP Light Band, 95%-lb	(i) MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	(i) MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	(i) MP Mean, Solid line	(i) MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	(i) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(i) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(i) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(i) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(i) N-Tech Mean, Solid line	(i) N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(i) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(i) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(i) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(i) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(i) I-Tech Mean, Solid line	(i) I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(i) News Light Band, 95%-ub	(i) News Light Band, 95%-lb	(i) News Dark Band, 68%-lb	(i) News Dark Band, 68%-ub	(i) News Mean, Solid line	(i) News VAR estimate, Dashed line	(i) Nom. Trend Light Band, 95%-ub	(i) Nom. Trend Light Band, 95%-lb	(i) Nom. Trend Dark Band, 68%-lb	(i) Nom. Trend Dark Band, 68%-ub	(i) Nom. Trend Mean, Solid line	(i) Nom. Trend VAR estimate, Dashed line	(r ) MP Light Band, 95%-ub	(r ) MP Light Band, 95%-lb	(r ) MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	(r ) MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	(r ) MP Mean, Solid line	(r ) MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	(r ) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(r ) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(r ) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(r ) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(r ) N-Tech Mean, Solid line	(r ) N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(r ) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(r ) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(r ) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(r ) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(r ) I-Tech Mean, Solid line	(r ) I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(r ) News Light Band, 95%-ub	(r ) News Light Band, 95%-lb	(r ) News Dark Band, 68%-lb	(r ) News Dark Band, 68%-ub	(r ) News Mean, Solid line	(r ) News VAR estimate, Dashed line	(r ) Nom. Trend Light Band, 95%-ub	(r ) Nom. Trend Light Band, 95%-lb	(r ) Nom. Trend Dark Band, 68%-lb	(r ) Nom. Trend Dark Band, 68%-ub	(r ) Nom. Trend Mean, Solid line	(r ) Nom. Trend VAR estimate, Dashed line	(pi) MP Light Band, 95%-ub	(pi) MP Light Band, 95%-lb	(pi) MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	(pi) MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	(pi) MP Mean, Solid line	(pi) MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	(pi) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(pi) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(pi) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(pi) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(pi) N-Tech Mean, Solid line	(pi) N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(pi) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(pi) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(pi) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(pi) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(pi) I-Tech Mean, Solid line	(pi) I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(pi) News Light Band, 95%-ub	(pi) News Light Band, 95%-lb	(pi) News Dark Band, 68%-lb	(pi) News Dark Band, 68%-ub	(pi) News Mean, Solid line	(pi) News VAR estimate, Dashed line	(pi) Nom. Trend Light Band, 95%-ub	(pi) Nom. Trend Light Band, 95%-lb	(pi) Nom. Trend Dark Band, 68%-lb	(pi) Nom. Trend Dark Band, 68%-ub	(pi) Nom. Trend Mean, Solid line	(pi) Nom. Trend VAR estimate, Dashed line	(h) MP Light Band, 95%-ub	(h) MP Light Band, 95%-lb	(h) MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	(h) MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	(h) MP Mean, Solid line	(h) MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	(h) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(h) N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(h) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(h) N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(h) N-Tech Mean, Solid line	(h) N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(h) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	(h) I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	(h) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	(h) I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	(h) I-Tech Mean, Solid line	(h) I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	(h) News Light Band, 95%-ub	(h) News Light Band, 95%-lb	(h) News Dark Band, 68%-lb	(h) News Dark Band, 68%-ub	(h) News Mean, Solid line	(h) News VAR estimate, Dashed line	(h) Nom. Trend Light Band, 95%-ub	(h) Nom. Trend Light Band, 95%-lb	(h) Nom. Trend Dark Band, 68%-lb	(h) Nom. Trend Dark Band, 68%-ub	(h) Nom. Trend Mean, Solid line	(h) Nom. Trend VAR estimate, Dashed line
0	0.19817	-0.2472	-0.14321	0.093666	-0.023234	-0.053207	0.42037	-0.11927	0.019757	0.30384	0.16474	0.16287	0.34388	-0.13948	-0.009371	0.23589	0.11516	0.21189	0.3211	-0.15964	-0.033943	0.20754	0.083918	0.13973	0.056626	-0.35014	-0.27095	-0.047692	-0.15827	-0.22339	0.36871	-0.046086	0.059278	0.26691	0.16472	0.11217	0.16957	-0.23242	-0.12795	0.074588	-0.028394	0.018609	0.29029	-0.11956	-0.019467	0.18583	0.080634	0.078597	0.37032	-0.038958	0.06853	0.27136	0.16974	0.20261	0.38695	-0.4702	-0.37707	0.20947	-0.13388	-0.458	0.53185	0.15701	0.254	0.45433	0.3551	0.2941	0.44931	-0.14987	0.039159	0.33396	0.18347	0.37408	0.17422	-0.45249	-0.34692	-0.018599	-0.18521	-0.33133	0.14324	-0.36913	-0.2504	0.0019436	-0.12151	-0.2148	0.29942	-0.27577	-0.13473	0.16227	0.011903	-0.024248	-0.25784	-0.97253	-0.82106	-0.43905	-0.63003	-0.50097	0.072808	-0.92356	-0.74735	-0.25438	-0.50179	-0.79271	0.84318	-0.24962	0.088174	0.65754	0.36917	0.71071	0.64356	-0.29437	-0.017487	0.44461	0.21482	0.25123	0.5282	-0.41869	-0.18763	0.28746	0.053136	0.039492	0.15412	-0.16904	-0.088691	0.077102	-0.0066893	-0.077875	0.24094	-0.18565	-0.063168	0.14966	0.042217	0.13723	0.32506	-0.049831	0.070372	0.2545	0.16296	0.25703	0.27579	-0.047191	0.044979	0.2074	0.12524	0.20571	0.056626	-0.35014	-0.27095	-0.047692	-0.15827	-0.22339
1	0.24675	-0.26356	-0.14078	0.12378	-0.0099575	-0.059916	0.50172	-0.15056	0.04331	0.37169	0.20988	0.23344	0.44258	-0.12576	0.01977	0.31845	0.17004	0.26566	0.42756	-0.11919	0.027951	0.29554	0.15973	0.28065	0.13844	-0.4352	-0.31694	-0.02116	-0.16311	-0.25186	0.42005	-0.095494	0.041959	0.30086	0.17032	0.12124	0.35274	-0.28146	-0.10948	0.20435	0.047389	0.12612	0.48693	-0.061267	0.074101	0.36474	0.21896	0.27478	0.46636	-0.080042	0.064968	0.33166	0.19951	0.28565	0.42735	-0.62793	-0.51305	0.13716	-0.2487	-0.64109	0.49202	0.077596	0.19719	0.40019	0.29894	0.24772	0.43485	-0.12813	0.03061	0.31529	0.17413	0.39549	0.38416	-0.24621	-0.093326	0.25279	0.079698	0.075879	0.21405	-0.29138	-0.15725	0.095002	-0.0332	-0.044216	0.29799	-0.46643	-0.36723	0.065576	-0.17478	-0.42186	0.19018	-0.43678	-0.28279	0.035773	-0.12737	-0.18194	0.17311	-0.55973	-0.38954	-0.03304	-0.21188	-0.35547	0.60599	-0.10344	0.085743	0.44502	0.26607	0.40993	0.58878	-0.038021	0.14078	0.44995	0.29276	0.41741	0.4166	-0.57234	-0.4181	0.15466	-0.15675	-0.43375	0.24461	-0.20141	-0.098685	0.1291	0.015934	-0.066918	0.37045	-0.2467	-0.060437	0.24627	0.088739	0.21277	0.4847	-0.058409	0.093489	0.37036	0.2338	0.35209	0.41661	-0.061688	0.075679	0.31154	0.19296	0.32364	0.089273	-0.51994	-0.4088	-0.072951	-0.2377	-0.33837
2	0.26158	-0.3557	-0.20258	0.11366	-0.045195	-0.030455	0.63143	-0.13589	0.089162	0.46969	0.2825	0.32339	0.56975	-0.11929	0.061467	0.41202	0.23598	0.3764	0.42374	-0.21949	-0.049021	0.27099	0.10885	0.23278	0.27269	-0.49034	-0.3342	0.11371	-0.11227	-0.061249	0.25925	-0.2236	-0.097648	0.13362	0.017531	-0.0032208	0.3271	-0.33517	-0.15975	0.17307	0.0084088	0.033856	0.52469	-0.032234	0.11566	0.39556	0.25656	0.3362	0.47009	-0.056156	0.10734	0.35635	0.22866	0.34927	0.27076	-0.56832	-0.43779	0.0024883	-0.23683	-0.51381	0.66565	0.19761	0.30835	0.54802	0.43032	0.28815	0.63042	-0.10984	0.11059	0.47981	0.2956	0.5975	0.40269	-0.46556	-0.27743	0.18332	-0.04794	-0.18617	0.33132	-0.32875	-0.155	0.16884	0.0079622	0.037825	0.3338	-0.58277	-0.45454	0.048404	-0.2207	-0.49599	0.13913	-0.31182	-0.20803	0.023298	-0.089906	-0.12648	0.17172	-0.41069	-0.27422	0.0062861	-0.13191	-0.26937	0.42881	-0.16314	-0.0057837	0.28577	0.14125	0.1989	0.47142	-0.013304	0.13078	0.35437	0.24184	0.32987	0.27045	-0.37494	-0.23647	0.099623	-0.074215	-0.21923	0.25175	-0.27498	-0.1452	0.12375	-0.012163	-0.039942	0.51416	-0.25837	-0.028473	0.3572	0.1618	0.29896	0.62647	-0.044029	0.15134	0.49399	0.32176	0.47875	0.47082	-0.1227	0.044416	0.33064	0.18513	0.341	0.13319	-0.59653	-0.43723	-0.047361	-0.23828	-0.26782
3	0.25042	-0.35544	-0.20342	0.10115	-0.05081	-0.037959	0.63392	-0.12424	0.092247	0.4753	0.28331	0.30769	0.51749	-0.20066	-0.016571	0.34028	0.16016	0.26206	0.44936	-0.20269	-0.025839	0.29927	0.13291	0.25748	0.33471	-0.44959	-0.29907	0.17946	-0.050665	0.051702	0.2026	-0.2883	-0.16236	0.073542	-0.042174	-0.046458	0.29752	-0.38906	-0.21349	0.12489	-0.043787	-0.051777	0.53756	-0.043925	0.11765	0.40548	0.26239	0.35326	0.52791	0.0068762	0.15944	0.40629	0.27878	0.41424	0.22791	-0.52916	-0.39429	-0.01175	-0.20585	-0.44333	0.40485	-0.015203	0.09303	0.30645	0.19999	0.19533	0.49561	-0.13368	0.031146	0.34088	0.18706	0.42635	0.42732	-0.2801	-0.10222	0.27102	0.085076	0.037838	0.24816	-0.26896	-0.13785	0.1194	-0.0083187	0.016881	0.20863	-0.42167	-0.30183	0.01928	-0.15025	-0.31005	-0.12196	-0.64569	-0.50124	-0.24267	-0.371	-0.29137	0.18728	-0.67734	-0.4915	-0.078695	-0.28837	-0.56364	0.7096	-0.1634	0.067038	0.53556	0.30765	0.52237	0.55919	-0.12804	0.067475	0.38765	0.22984	0.31144	0.32554	-0.36118	-0.1922	0.1445	-0.018792	-0.017821	0.26206	-0.30508	-0.1702	0.1248	-0.024862	-0.028447	0.56762	-0.23551	0.0040862	0.40157	0.2038	0.31609	0.63097	-0.10283	0.097545	0.47178	0.28423	0.4277	0.50468	-0.1296	0.054095	0.35433	0.19992	0.36795	0.19796	-0.61396	-0.42047	0.024048	-0.20211	-0.15555
4	0.3041	-0.31768	-0.16347	0.14106	-0.0098757	0.017816	0.67748	-0.071208	0.14897	0.52005	0.33301	0.37568	0.49354	-0.24567	-0.061096	0.30673	0.12436	0.2031	0.43866	-0.21656	-0.050669	0.28106	0.11402	0.23903	0.38651	-0.45007	-0.27551	0.22734	-0.0064076	0.13548	0.20683	-0.25463	-0.13662	0.089272	-0.022911	-0.039213	0.28611	-0.34056	-0.16942	0.13152	-0.019723	-0.020634	0.48513	-0.073287	0.082893	0.3629	0.22498	0.29872	0.51199	0.03901	0.16521	0.39888	0.28123	0.41038	0.22583	-0.47257	-0.34329	0.0095997	-0.16959	-0.39798	0.32015	-0.071558	0.02502	0.22016	0.12401	0.093229	0.40535	-0.15169	-0.0020909	0.2765	0.13482	0.33353	0.38468	-0.25434	-0.083599	0.23101	0.07733	0.044028	0.24339	-0.21227	-0.09073	0.13206	0.021408	0.049161	0.24614	-0.43312	-0.31418	0.034363	-0.15435	-0.35598	0.061064	-0.48142	-0.34718	-0.077326	-0.21121	-0.24179	0.19786	-0.58782	-0.4102	-0.052852	-0.2312	-0.47812	0.59076	-0.26377	-0.044425	0.39407	0.17997	0.31542	0.59064	-0.024307	0.15306	0.43626	0.29476	0.39736	0.2568	-0.37383	-0.19264	0.091524	-0.056815	-0.13329	0.28563	-0.29459	-0.15497	0.13738	-0.0094445	0.014721	0.60008	-0.19831	0.035827	0.42275	0.23079	0.34442	0.61357	-0.14106	0.071914	0.4466	0.25946	0.38708	0.49838	-0.131	0.042785	0.34012	0.19156	0.36515	0.3106	-0.57536	-0.39124	0.12002	-0.13753	-0.03016
5	0.32615	-0.28023	-0.13408	0.16799	0.017972	0.040014	0.71151	-0.029488	0.1925	0.55483	0.36978	0.4363	0.45333	-0.28439	-0.10437	0.27208	0.083501	0.13632	0.41758	-0.26067	-0.077022	0.25867	0.085926	0.20632	0.42207	-0.45399	-0.24598	0.27359	0.03399	0.20719	0.17648	-0.27989	-0.1688	0.054694	-0.055798	-0.050765	0.31193	-0.32177	-0.16085	0.14392	-0.0045557	-0.033746	0.48002	-0.096219	0.066405	0.36083	0.21513	0.29394	0.49258	0.032887	0.1542	0.38118	0.26763	0.39817	0.18408	-0.42873	-0.2881	0.01711	-0.1339	-0.30363	0.37661	-0.014709	0.082289	0.27641	0.18001	0.13018	0.43707	-0.10611	0.029592	0.31088	0.17255	0.38473	0.33727	-0.32037	-0.15406	0.1711	0.0099304	-0.077019	0.2582	-0.20849	-0.075589	0.14537	0.032627	0.069924	0.27825	-0.43239	-0.31662	0.065227	-0.14152	-0.37312	0.11157	-0.37524	-0.23916	-0.0021351	-0.12104	-0.13244	0.21538	-0.47668	-0.32046	0.010256	-0.15119	-0.35417	0.51723	-0.242	-0.034138	0.33811	0.15314	0.25469	0.54285	-0.016142	0.14448	0.38895	0.26477	0.36122	0.24614	-0.29885	-0.14785	0.10909	-0.019639	-0.042005	0.30988	-0.26412	-0.12784	0.16152	0.01412	0.050687	0.63472	-0.15656	0.074832	0.44872	0.26075	0.38724	0.5966	-0.17237	0.034877	0.42406	0.22754	0.33791	0.47068	-0.16471	0.0061533	0.31052	0.1587	0.32436	0.38699	-0.55267	-0.37507	0.19193	-0.083868	0.071303
6	0.34214	-0.26834	-0.1086	0.19137	0.037332	0.068589	0.74425	-0.011764	0.21304	0.58242	0.39421	0.46759	0.43434	-0.30882	-0.12936	0.25618	0.060048	0.094812	0.41074	-0.27745	-0.10411	0.237	0.061135	0.17906	0.44845	-0.45326	-0.22151	0.29536	0.05408	0.24673	0.14212	-0.32088	-0.20609	0.022339	-0.089513	-0.066231	0.32115	-0.34589	-0.18318	0.14263	-0.018776	-0.082807	0.50455	-0.12527	0.049888	0.37079	0.21374	0.2987	0.5084	0.017635	0.15423	0.39106	0.2733	0.41552	0.19018	-0.39219	-0.24289	0.044852	-0.09957	-0.21667	0.28173	-0.078156	0.0099365	0.18601	0.097094	0.091902	0.38479	-0.10083	0.019544	0.25579	0.138	0.32085	0.32082	-0.25801	-0.099697	0.17968	0.041778	-0.021684	0.21621	-0.18293	-0.078442	0.11255	0.015659	0.055817	0.21605	-0.35224	-0.22197	0.060096	-0.089113	-0.26352	0.02647	-0.47452	-0.3399	-0.091682	-0.21399	-0.18095	0.23403	-0.54804	-0.36422	0.015673	-0.17495	-0.41848	0.60704	-0.24357	-0.0095758	0.42144	0.20964	0.37096	0.54003	-0.071537	0.10644	0.37832	0.23994	0.32825	0.30929	-0.3361	-0.16718	0.16414	0.0040614	0.069497	0.3337	-0.24456	-0.10594	0.18002	0.037537	0.090043	0.64754	-0.11816	0.094434	0.46747	0.28026	0.40917	0.58473	-0.20254	0.0060904	0.39614	0.19866	0.28711	0.44884	-0.17584	-0.017767	0.2881	0.13344	0.29427	0.432	-0.54804	-0.34558	0.23071	-0.045823	0.1392
7	0.36673	-0.2291	-0.074411	0.20635	0.064295	0.097768	0.75408	0.012644	0.23751	0.58752	0.40728	0.50364	0.41411	-0.33609	-0.15191	0.22794	0.03729	0.046676	0.39207	-0.28345	-0.11108	0.21255	0.045922	0.16017	0.44966	-0.42965	-0.18159	0.29748	0.072587	0.26419	0.1439	-0.30728	-0.19469	0.028674	-0.07996	-0.04931	0.31822	-0.34874	-0.18603	0.14026	-0.01914	-0.089758	0.50211	-0.13783	0.040994	0.3619	0.20372	0.28214	0.50225	0.016978	0.1509	0.38397	0.26656	0.40852	0.20353	-0.36287	-0.21271	0.06669	-0.073977	-0.16168	0.22556	-0.10863	-0.026292	0.13972	0.055885	0.059488	0.33188	-0.11118	-0.003666	0.21799	0.10583	0.24979	0.28463	-0.20887	-0.070192	0.1711	0.049451	-0.0023598	0.18617	-0.15946	-0.066858	0.1007	0.017446	0.063255	0.20107	-0.32466	-0.20839	0.034404	-0.087956	-0.25346	0.078681	-0.44149	-0.30002	-0.036501	-0.16756	-0.15813	0.2646	-0.54274	-0.35526	0.04186	-0.1556	-0.40366	0.62497	-0.29356	-0.052007	0.39963	0.17609	0.32038	0.566	-0.050072	0.12019	0.4062	0.26161	0.35971	0.28784	-0.35358	-0.18448	0.14511	-0.011212	0.046851	0.34416	-0.21929	-0.079032	0.19674	0.059045	0.129	0.65912	-0.10201	0.11192	0.47469	0.29267	0.43079	0.5644	-0.21397	-0.01193	0.37558	0.18026	0.24856	0.41841	-0.19194	-0.037729	0.26073	0.10918	0.26541	0.45093	-0.52812	-0.31502	0.25394	-0.013867	0.18816
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36	0.31283	-0.069366	-0.0046578	0.16132	0.076929	0.16459	1.0037	0.18753	0.35143	0.73635	0.5395	0.81784	0.56185	-0.59601	-0.31214	0.23559	-0.031029	-0.19357	0.27424	-0.23292	-0.094453	0.088011	-0.0034709	0.10515	0.20591	-0.21952	-0.078258	0.085442	0.0021916	0.004726	0.097518	-0.17531	-0.0861	0.034875	-0.025455	-0.066085	0.22762	-0.4207	-0.24436	0.070396	-0.085102	-0.26153	0.41866	-0.26842	-0.10968	0.22634	0.056358	0.086423	0.43867	0.085527	0.16781	0.32563	0.24375	0.2953	0.17421	-0.14223	-0.047952	0.087906	0.019966	0.057366	0.032727	-0.13732	-0.076787	-0.0013782	-0.038445	-0.050182	0.066165	-0.19206	-0.11105	0.0022479	-0.052091	-0.10863	0.18691	-0.10272	-0.034794	0.097872	0.03157	0.077997	0.087348	-0.095611	-0.041028	0.032677	-0.0039953	-0.025689	0.1084	-0.087227	-0.033386	0.045664	0.005658	0.0044659	0.14919	-0.11035	-0.042126	0.070652	0.012365	-0.019932	0.24973	-0.37603	-0.19735	0.11207	-0.036278	-0.15893	0.38268	-0.28897	-0.12582	0.18076	0.029111	0.01704	0.43307	0.09987	0.17748	0.32623	0.249	0.32237	0.17567	-0.14455	-0.047961	0.077357	0.014108	0.053305	0.18223	-0.15834	-0.063542	0.087107	0.010438	0.08759	0.3671	-0.18624	-0.0565	0.21901	0.080759	0.17171	0.39326	-0.23075	-0.060852	0.23207	0.0842	0.058837	0.12933	-0.22763	-0.12397	0.03284	-0.043967	-0.056424	0.22717	-0.14992	-0.062201	0.10241	0.021979	0.020182
37	0.31271	-0.069724	-0.0055473	0.15889	0.07465	0.16363	1.01	0.18921	0.35319	0.73865	0.54016	0.82204	0.57004	-0.60251	-0.31267	0.23773	-0.029959	-0.19469	0.27429	-0.23105	-0.094538	0.086385	-0.0040187	0.10205	0.2035	-0.22342	-0.077358	0.08412	-0.00021656	-0.0013664	0.10077	-0.16758	-0.081293	0.036072	-0.021411	-0.062355	0.22529	-0.41331	-0.24174	0.071921	-0.082172	-0.25468	0.41545	-0.26925	-0.11426	0.22008	0.052032	0.077457	0.4403	0.087437	0.16777	0.3253	0.24363	0.29451	0.17605	-0.14078	-0.046328	0.085466	0.020026	0.058642	0.034419	-0.13245	-0.074134	-0.00026227	-0.0364	-0.049928	0.065681	-0.19222	-0.10978	0.0036005	-0.05143	-0.10705	0.1852	-0.10419	-0.03641	0.095998	0.03009	0.077356	0.087527	-0.094026	-0.0405	0.032729	-0.0036045	-0.025385	0.10337	-0.084039	-0.032524	0.046227	0.0063094	0.007458	0.15219	-0.10624	-0.039297	0.070994	0.014671	-0.015903	0.25247	-0.37317	-0.19369	0.11551	-0.033559	-0.1529	0.38241	-0.29345	-0.12756	0.1784	0.0258	0.0084265	0.42904	0.097196	0.17855	0.32534	0.24819	0.32099	0.1748	-0.1412	-0.04642	0.075458	0.014075	0.0529	0.17687	-0.16132	-0.067126	0.083441	0.0083784	0.080323	0.36334	-0.1839	-0.062067	0.21693	0.075569	0.16855	0.39524	-0.22839	-0.064044	0.23325	0.083986	0.060181	0.12936	-0.22981	-0.12739	0.030176	-0.045424	-0.065358	0.22706	-0.15759	-0.062838	0.10033	0.019224	0.015188
38	0.30591	-0.071119	-0.0070294	0.15553	0.071975	0.16212	1.0146	0.18803	0.3512	0.738	0.54074	0.82543	0.59181	-0.60735	-0.31372	0.24126	-0.028245	-0.1948	0.27343	-0.22607	-0.093872	0.085413	-0.004018	0.099886	0.20023	-0.21531	-0.081078	0.078662	-0.0029592	-0.0081212	0.10053	-0.16117	-0.07641	0.038765	-0.017777	-0.059019	0.22726	-0.40815	-0.23762	0.073963	-0.079543	-0.24836	0.413	-0.2749	-0.115	0.21503	0.048055	0.068511	0.43756	0.093516	0.16941	0.32538	0.24372	0.29393	0.17708	-0.13747	-0.045747	0.082586	0.019513	0.058505	0.035557	-0.1314	-0.071621	0.00052293	-0.034288	-0.049565	0.064395	-0.18962	-0.11003	0.0046117	-0.050835	-0.10531	0.17981	-0.10526	-0.036764	0.092459	0.028482	0.076299	0.088584	-0.092671	-0.040125	0.033235	-0.0033265	-0.025276	0.10264	-0.084365	-0.031691	0.045402	0.0069294	0.010132	0.15363	-0.10234	-0.036051	0.071543	0.01651	-0.012427	0.25253	-0.3729	-0.18866	0.11502	-0.031207	-0.14764	0.37658	-0.29606	-0.132	0.17629	0.022923	0.00010101	0.42757	0.10127	0.17823	0.32409	0.24766	0.31989	0.17008	-0.13388	-0.04313	0.072628	0.013422	0.051184	0.17436	-0.16397	-0.069446	0.079104	0.0058554	0.072376	0.36287	-0.19241	-0.071224	0.21248	0.07045	0.16491	0.39605	-0.23319	-0.064278	0.23352	0.084569	0.062534	0.12488	-0.23263	-0.12912	0.031347	-0.046066	-0.07292	0.2259	-0.16383	-0.066366	0.097386	0.015788	0.0088853
39	0.30345	-0.069724	-0.0079035	0.15387	0.06901	0.16023	1.0196	0.18792	0.34786	0.73795	0.54135	0.8282	0.60628	-0.60721	-0.3125	0.24666	-0.025979	-0.19389	0.27642	-0.22546	-0.094028	0.084821	-0.0035422	0.098636	0.20062	-0.21532	-0.084226	0.07491	-0.0058219	-0.015103	0.1026	-0.15821	-0.072695	0.041707	-0.014577	-0.056062	0.22825	-0.40879	-0.23317	0.076392	-0.077114	-0.24256	0.40717	-0.28281	-0.11817	0.20796	0.044486	0.059762	0.43861	0.096123	0.17162	0.32438	0.24406	0.29374	0.17619	-0.13125	-0.044977	0.080381	0.01848	0.057118	0.038818	-0.12813	-0.069015	0.002458	-0.032159	-0.049142	0.066263	-0.18931	-0.10881	0.0043643	-0.050308	-0.10349	0.17746	-0.10448	-0.037967	0.090239	0.026801	0.074885	0.087316	-0.088437	-0.038543	0.032794	-0.003117	-0.025289	0.1028	-0.084535	-0.030866	0.044784	0.0074588	0.012391	0.15609	-0.097233	-0.034363	0.072035	0.017884	-0.0094542	0.2568	-0.36418	-0.18383	0.11448	-0.029101	-0.14305	0.37286	-0.29933	-0.13296	0.17263	0.020532	-0.0077885	0.42425	0.10407	0.17912	0.32313	0.24746	0.31921	0.16331	-0.132	-0.043265	0.070137	0.012238	0.048372	0.17229	-0.1633	-0.071858	0.074621	0.0029618	0.063935	0.36023	-0.19843	-0.076261	0.2107	0.065577	0.16098	0.39848	-0.22996	-0.063098	0.23377	0.085889	0.065977	0.1245	-0.23287	-0.12827	0.030964	-0.045958	-0.079063	0.22195	-0.16775	-0.06955	0.094911	0.011915	0.0017816
40	0.30222	-0.072065	-0.011302	0.14889	0.065872	0.1581	1.0324	0.1895	0.34846	0.74188	0.54213	0.83055	0.61129	-0.60767	-0.31301	0.2516	-0.023268	-0.19199	0.27289	-0.22117	-0.092819	0.083247	-0.0026975	0.098216	0.19901	-0.21577	-0.085628	0.068432	-0.0086114	-0.021912	0.10519	-0.15286	-0.068606	0.042966	-0.011798	-0.053443	0.23212	-0.40762	-0.23298	0.077544	-0.074789	-0.23724	0.40231	-0.28825	-0.12011	0.20259	0.041347	0.051357	0.43538	0.095253	0.17288	0.32407	0.2447	0.29403	0.17221	-0.12751	-0.04571	0.077224	0.017013	0.054702	0.0398	-0.12524	-0.067209	0.0041396	-0.030067	-0.048702	0.064518	-0.19133	-0.10826	0.0040107	-0.049848	-0.10165	0.17479	-0.10484	-0.038094	0.088861	0.025095	0.07319	0.086857	-0.086666	-0.038247	0.032444	-0.0029331	-0.025353	0.10141	-0.083196	-0.029271	0.044084	0.0078492	0.014181	0.15581	-0.094406	-0.031779	0.070162	0.018825	-0.0069193	0.26241	-0.36106	-0.18179	0.11551	-0.027145	-0.13907	0.36987	-0.30234	-0.13506	0.16818	0.018629	-0.015123	0.42052	0.10488	0.17999	0.32279	0.24758	0.31902	0.15737	-0.12901	-0.043645	0.067059	0.010638	0.044726	0.16903	-0.16626	-0.074469	0.071397	-0.00018722	0.055195	0.35753	-0.2009	-0.081457	0.20797	0.06109	0.15694	0.40451	-0.23019	-0.059699	0.23355	0.087847	0.070519	0.11973	-0.23331	-0.12679	0.031749	-0.045198	-0.083818	0.21737	-0.16845	-0.071999	0.091002	0.0078518	-0.0056227

Return to Figure 15

Figure A.16A: Output and Real Rates (Full Sample w/Nominal Trend) Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Periods	Green Total	Red MP	Blue N-Tech	Black I-Tech	Blue-label News	Pink Label Nom Trend	Black-label Rest
-8	0.3767	0.004	-0.1604	0.0382	0.0436	0.1748	0.2766
-7	0.3033	-0.0006	-0.1723	0.0227	0.0483	0.1843	0.2209
-6	0.2134	-0.005	-0.1772	0.0099	0.0528	0.1858	0.147
-5	0.134	-0.0103	-0.168	0.0052	0.0581	0.1886	0.0605
-4	0.0752	-0.0184	-0.1367	0.007	0.0619	0.1949	-0.0336
-3	0.0198	-0.0297	-0.0799	0.0066	0.0592	0.1939	-0.1304
-2	-0.0653	-0.0424	-0.0039	-0.0052	0.045	0.1651	-0.2239
-1	-0.2014	-0.0523	0.076	-0.0312	0.019	0.0926	-0.3054
0	-0.3755	-0.0546	0.1423	-0.0637	-0.0137	-0.0216	-0.3642
1	-0.5398	-0.0463	0.1835	-0.0887	-0.0441	-0.1537	-0.3905
2	-0.6363	-0.0282	0.1985	-0.0942	-0.0643	-0.2686	-0.3794
3	-0.6305	-0.0047	0.1951	-0.0782	-0.0714	-0.3379	-0.3333
4	-0.5298	0.0185	0.1827	-0.0489	-0.0682	-0.3527	-0.2613
5	-0.3748	0.037	0.1663	-0.0191	-0.06	-0.3242	-0.1748
6	-0.2123	0.0485	0.1454	0.0021	-0.0512	-0.2729	-0.0842
7	-0.0695	0.0534	0.1167	0.0135	-0.0427	-0.2142	0.0038
8	0.0519	0.0531	0.0792	0.0202	-0.0332	-0.1531	0.0857

Return to Figure 16a

Figure A.16B: Output and Real Rates (Full Sample w/Nominal Trend) Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance

Periods	MP Light Band, 95%-ub	MP Light Band, 95%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	MP Mean, Solid line	MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	N-Tech Mean, Solid line	N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	I-Tech Mean, Solid line	I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	News Light Band, 95%-ub	News Light Band, 95%-lb	News Dark Band, 68%-lb	News Dark Band, 68%-ub	News Mean, Solid line	News VAR estimate, Dashed line	Nom Trend Light Band, 95%-ub	Nom Trend Light Band, 95%-lb	Nom Trend Dark Band, 68%-lb	Nom Trend Dark Band, 68%-ub	Nom Trend Mean, Solid line	Nom Trend VAR estimate, Dashed line	Total Light Band, 95%-ub	Total Light Band, 95%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-ub	Total Mean, Solid line	Total VAR estimate, Dashed line
-8	0.57502	-0.51797	-0.24041	0.41369	0.10485	0.051687	0.76958	-0.72589	-0.53251	0.29992	-0.14442	-0.60383	0.76612	-0.54543	-0.19289	0.54592	0.18964	0.35871	0.79691	-0.57926	-0.1791	0.58698	0.22138	0.47655	0.8225	-0.39083	0.037117	0.61856	0.3301	0.44772	0.5184	-0.18461	0.0012772	0.36866	0.18366	0.20244
-7	0.54836	-0.57084	-0.31291	0.37275	0.045435	-0.0073304	0.75734	-0.75632	-0.58348	0.26235	-0.19038	-0.64885	0.71766	-0.61416	-0.26438	0.49636	0.12944	0.21338	0.7709	-0.64612	-0.24714	0.56749	0.18596	0.52789	0.80891	-0.45581	0.00734	0.59352	0.30982	0.47207	0.49274	-0.23732	-0.041988	0.3325	0.14248	0.163
-6	0.5226	-0.63012	-0.38564	0.32013	-0.022179	-0.064633	0.6965	-0.7743	-0.62322	0.20105	-0.23259	-0.66696	0.67535	-0.70312	-0.3244	0.44517	0.067008	0.093486	0.7662	-0.69933	-0.30373	0.54323	0.14761	0.57679	0.79066	-0.52286	-0.014318	0.5648	0.27915	0.47585	0.45086	-0.29749	-0.10126	0.28591	0.092596	0.11467
-5	0.49412	-0.67368	-0.4372	0.25927	-0.082143	-0.13465	0.66461	-0.78956	-0.63757	0.20402	-0.24595	-0.63252	0.66885	-0.74962	-0.38939	0.4235	0.034948	0.049305	0.77871	-0.72504	-0.33626	0.54192	0.12375	0.63491	0.76898	-0.58053	-0.025606	0.55725	0.26355	0.48292	0.41719	-0.35157	-0.14442	0.24378	0.050922	0.072007
-4	0.46781	-0.67996	-0.44957	0.19826	-0.12743	-0.23932	0.65992	-0.78349	-0.60991	0.24098	-0.20795	-0.51466	0.71001	-0.73129	-0.39672	0.4618	0.042031	0.065553	0.80363	-0.71476	-0.35335	0.55539	0.11337	0.67721	0.77166	-0.63118	-0.064235	0.58678	0.26677	0.49924	0.39516	-0.36347	-0.16895	0.22434	0.024194	0.040404
-3	0.47605	-0.67613	-0.47821	0.16535	-0.16566	-0.38672	0.73101	-0.77476	-0.56509	0.35327	-0.11615	-0.30076	0.79343	-0.73561	-0.44015	0.55983	0.061292	0.062432	0.84977	-0.75102	-0.40994	0.59236	0.093616	0.64719	0.82448	-0.67481	-0.15315	0.65001	0.26062	0.49653	0.36895	-0.38575	-0.1976	0.21266	0.0024295	0.010618
-2	0.62019	-0.75599	-0.56848	0.19832	-0.21196	-0.55277	0.8064	-0.786	-0.5167	0.51998	0.0052741	-0.014628	0.88034	-0.79639	-0.5242	0.65336	0.045801	-0.048693	0.89087	-0.80937	-0.51818	0.62483	0.03456	0.49249	0.90099	-0.75368	-0.30401	0.69452	0.20022	0.4228	0.3565	-0.41642	-0.23842	0.17286	-0.034542	-0.035065
-1	0.76454	-0.84918	-0.71313	0.28016	-0.273	-0.68195	0.88692	-0.81504	-0.49482	0.71288	0.11676	0.28629	0.91161	-0.8755	-0.65286	0.66103	-0.036766	-0.2929	0.88918	-0.87346	-0.66721	0.55499	-0.076899	0.20742	0.91652	-0.82492	-0.49903	0.622	0.056727	0.23704	0.30028	-0.4633	-0.30484	0.10255	-0.10083	-0.1082
0	0.84326	-0.9325	-0.82487	0.33702	-0.33502	-0.71102	0.92973	-0.83696	-0.50006	0.79247	0.18566	0.53584	0.87992	-0.9286	-0.77483	0.54235	-0.1761	-0.59862	0.85554	-0.9356	-0.78594	0.44287	-0.22169	-0.14999	0.82576	-0.90293	-0.69297	0.41227	-0.15585	-0.055355	0.20553	-0.54213	-0.38269	0.012791	-0.19039	-0.20178
1	0.79692	-0.95602	-0.87139	0.32275	-0.36696	-0.60258	0.91908	-0.85664	-0.47023	0.77426	0.20409	0.69067	0.77471	-0.95281	-0.85221	0.32629	-0.32014	-0.83339	0.76754	-0.95549	-0.85335	0.25304	-0.35454	-0.48221	0.69655	-0.9606	-0.83873	0.13789	-0.38087	-0.39358	0.10394	-0.60792	-0.46116	-0.084399	-0.27643	-0.29004
2	0.74465	-0.92864	-0.83612	0.32957	-0.33866	-0.3675	0.88486	-0.85326	-0.44948	0.70761	0.18966	0.74735	0.66797	-0.94743	-0.85867	0.1355	-0.40587	-0.88584	0.66144	-0.94339	-0.85842	0.11035	-0.42851	-0.70314	0.5266	-0.96706	-0.901	-0.13326	-0.54822	-0.68792	0.041128	-0.64094	-0.5042	-0.14181	-0.32583	-0.3419
3	0.74012	-0.89562	-0.7409	0.35132	-0.24175	-0.061449	0.84388	-0.81408	-0.4127	0.65085	0.16964	0.73451	0.60253	-0.91368	-0.79674	0.064796	-0.3983	-0.73536	0.58879	-0.92408	-0.81381	0.063495	-0.42134	-0.78112	0.44591	-0.9577	-0.90262	-0.28354	-0.6126	-0.8653	0.054146	-0.62993	-0.4959	-0.13276	-0.31873	-0.3388
4	0.77067	-0.84959	-0.59501	0.44739	-0.097806	0.24162	0.82701	-0.75913	-0.37117	0.61811	0.16103	0.68771	0.65851	-0.86176	-0.70827	0.12429	-0.30974	-0.45996	0.5869	-0.88733	-0.74591	0.11605	-0.3456	-0.74551	0.40239	-0.92626	-0.85099	-0.29089	-0.57478	-0.90313	0.11128	-0.58332	-0.44287	-0.070046	-0.25947	-0.28469
5	0.8214	-0.76515	-0.43632	0.54636	0.052742	0.48173	0.81316	-0.70911	-0.34442	0.59762	0.16148	0.62623	0.73136	-0.80899	-0.60668	0.26863	-0.18672	-0.17971	0.6536	-0.83413	-0.64912	0.22127	-0.23674	-0.65588	0.43037	-0.87095	-0.7622	-0.16518	-0.47269	-0.83037	0.2033	-0.5176	-0.35506	0.016909	-0.17167	-0.2014
6	0.81653	-0.67563	-0.26598	0.60943	0.17295	0.63182	0.80383	-0.66717	-0.31512	0.5867	0.15601	0.54743	0.75756	-0.75574	-0.51659	0.38139	-0.076713	0.019557	0.67881	-0.77658	-0.54525	0.30232	-0.12951	-0.55935	0.49096	-0.79756	-0.66463	-0.0096292	-0.35195	-0.69886	0.27542	-0.44086	-0.26629	0.10383	-0.082209	-0.11405
7	0.79456	-0.61439	-0.15416	0.62633	0.24717	0.69555	0.77385	-0.65209	-0.33526	0.56605	0.13227	0.43932	0.75036	-0.70506	-0.43181	0.45827	-0.00029405	0.12712	0.70083	-0.72566	-0.47137	0.40487	-0.040044	-0.46717	0.56514	-0.7345	-0.5685	0.10955	-0.23867	-0.54867	0.33369	-0.36446	-0.18637	0.17384	-0.006464	-0.037352
8	0.77414	-0.55529	-0.10478	0.63034	0.28284	0.69121	0.74872	-0.65449	-0.37172	0.53424	0.091055	0.29815	0.75756	-0.66716	-0.39736	0.50734	0.0524	0.18974	0.72263	-0.67842	-0.39161	0.47337	0.035028	-0.36313	0.60535	-0.68683	-0.49294	0.23954	-0.13305	-0.39199	0.37997	-0.2981	-0.11763	0.22768	0.055376	0.027876

Return to Figure 16b

Figure A.17A: Output and Nominal Rates (Full Sample w/Nominal Trend) Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Periods	Green Total	Red MP	Blue N-Tech	Black I-Tech	Blue-label News	Pink Label Nom Trend	Black-label Rest
-8	0.559	0.0072	-0.0206	0.0229	-0.0015	0.1413	0.4097
-7	0.8375	0.0107	-0.0232	0.0504	0.0334	0.2105	0.5557
-6	1.0699	0.0145	-0.0266	0.0745	0.0683	0.2677	0.6715
-5	1.2642	0.0176	-0.0299	0.1018	0.1041	0.3204	0.7503
-4	1.4229	0.0186	-0.0307	0.1375	0.1409	0.3751	0.7815
-3	1.5199	0.0158	-0.0265	0.1791	0.1756	0.425	0.751
-2	1.4991	0.0088	-0.0164	0.2138	0.2006	0.4446	0.6477
-1	1.3024	-0.0012	-0.0022	0.224	0.2063	0.402	0.4735
0	0.9115	-0.0113	0.0125	0.1972	0.1856	0.2793	0.2482
1	0.374	-0.0187	0.0242	0.135	0.1386	0.0895	0.0054
2	-0.2079	-0.0214	0.0312	0.0527	0.0736	-0.125	-0.219
3	-0.7211	-0.0195	0.0342	-0.028	0.0034	-0.3115	-0.3997
4	-1.0903	-0.0147	0.0352	-0.0903	-0.0597	-0.4325	-0.5282
5	-1.2999	-0.009	0.0354	-0.129	-0.1088	-0.4802	-0.6083
6	-1.3804	-0.0039	0.035	-0.149	-0.1425	-0.4724	-0.6475
7	-1.3726	0.0002	0.0328	-0.1589	-0.1631	-0.4341	-0.6495
8	-1.2988	0.0035	0.0281	-0.1635	-0.1725	-0.3812	-0.6132

Return to Figure 17a

Figure A.17B: Output and Nominal Rates (Full Sample w/Nominal Trend) Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance

Periods	MP Light Band, 95%-ub	MP Light Band, 95%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	MP Mean, Solid line	MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	N-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	N-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	N-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	N-Tech Mean, Solid line	N-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	I-Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	I-Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	I-Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	I-Tech Mean, Solid line	I-Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	News Light Band, 95%-ub	News Light Band, 95%-lb	News Dark Band, 68%-lb	News Dark Band, 68%-ub	News Mean, Solid line	News VAR estimate, Dashed line	Nom Trend Light Band, 95%-ub	Nom Trend Light Band, 95%-lb	Nom Trend Dark Band, 68%-lb	Nom Trend Dark Band, 68%-ub	Nom Trend Mean, Solid line	Nom Trend VAR estimate, Dashed line	Total Light Band, 95%-ub	Total Light Band, 95%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-ub	Total Mean, Solid line	Total VAR estimate, Dashed line
-8	0.72657	-0.49278	-0.09714	0.55444	0.23546	0.20901	0.79309	-0.6754	-0.35245	0.58232	0.12517	-0.36573	0.70206	-0.43167	-0.16281	0.45704	0.14587	0.091632	0.64687	-0.42447	-0.1378	0.43224	0.14163	-0.0065803	0.64586	-0.27568	-0.02704	0.45108	0.21455	0.23606	0.50777	-0.12058	0.036813	0.36541	0.20292	0.24158
-7	0.8026	-0.4961	-0.053825	0.63286	0.30999	0.31206	0.84939	-0.66862	-0.28371	0.68421	0.22274	-0.41215	0.79534	-0.39948	-0.085555	0.57813	0.24668	0.20143	0.7337	-0.38354	-0.045039	0.54943	0.25445	0.14586	0.74393	-0.21231	0.083628	0.58463	0.3376	0.35176	0.61903	-0.003182	0.15478	0.48671	0.32459	0.36192
-6	0.85187	-0.53304	-0.059127	0.70796	0.3567	0.42003	0.89277	-0.70339	-0.25504	0.75405	0.29732	-0.473	0.85814	-0.40896	-0.037381	0.67083	0.32505	0.29785	0.82272	-0.37392	0.063764	0.65159	0.35461	0.29868	0.83639	-0.17336	0.19598	0.68832	0.44163	0.44737	0.70303	0.079607	0.27031	0.58847	0.42696	0.46236
-5	0.89205	-0.58347	-0.080565	0.76873	0.38642	0.51113	0.92956	-0.72176	-0.24612	0.81444	0.35334	-0.53144	0.89725	-0.42734	0.037145	0.73983	0.39756	0.40658	0.88908	-0.34897	0.15521	0.73499	0.4474	0.45493	0.89323	-0.095902	0.32162	0.76847	0.53861	0.5353	0.76623	0.1752	0.36212	0.66542	0.51442	0.54631
-4	0.91754	-0.61446	-0.055974	0.80007	0.40887	0.54001	0.95275	-0.72735	-0.17696	0.85628	0.40036	-0.54545	0.92321	-0.3995	0.15567	0.79239	0.48276	0.5492	0.93149	-0.29508	0.2654	0.80662	0.53656	0.61571	0.93129	0.069939	0.46539	0.82444	0.63431	0.62682	0.80706	0.28711	0.45832	0.72056	0.5892	0.61487
-3	0.91674	-0.55396	0.0094425	0.79476	0.41758	0.46	0.96208	-0.66506	-0.070766	0.86351	0.43998	-0.47057	0.92994	-0.27594	0.31048	0.82928	0.57795	0.71546	0.94765	-0.277	0.38093	0.86009	0.61211	0.76745	0.94521	0.26598	0.58963	0.84932	0.71039	0.71007	0.8287	0.36069	0.5308	0.74799	0.63977	0.65679
-2	0.8909	-0.50657	0.013723	0.74029	0.38799	0.25628	0.9535	-0.59368	-0.006001	0.85353	0.4581	-0.29159	0.93306	-0.15954	0.43422	0.86625	0.6487	0.85422	0.95173	-0.29507	0.39321	0.88626	0.64705	0.877	0.94184	0.29187	0.58921	0.87443	0.72424	0.7429	0.81712	0.38375	0.5373	0.74053	0.63963	0.64781
-1	0.87069	-0.54247	-0.08868	0.67455	0.29345	-0.033606	0.94445	-0.53888	-0.024721	0.84495	0.43056	-0.039362	0.9618	-0.23604	0.38438	0.89584	0.64288	0.89482	0.96215	-0.4078	0.27484	0.899	0.60833	0.90183	0.96056	0.099265	0.41816	0.86445	0.63161	0.6717	0.76082	0.28769	0.44828	0.67202	0.56054	0.5628
0	0.89884	-0.70535	-0.28485	0.57045	0.12892	-0.32896	0.93672	-0.6049	-0.13896	0.79664	0.33985	0.22197	0.96099	-0.38043	0.19945	0.85205	0.52299	0.78804	0.95665	-0.52264	0.10808	0.82797	0.47695	0.81129	0.90188	-0.18998	0.14305	0.71406	0.41843	0.46669	0.63423	0.11258	0.26735	0.5187	0.39264	0.39387
1	0.85154	-0.81454	-0.51978	0.42857	-0.076391	-0.54232	0.88687	-0.70813	-0.30053	0.68845	0.191	0.42958	0.87214	-0.54046	-0.064843	0.65989	0.29467	0.53935	0.87117	-0.64231	-0.13612	0.64464	0.26364	0.60592	0.69946	-0.49353	-0.17619	0.43307	0.11872	0.14948	0.42667	-0.13954	0.022411	0.29594	0.15716	0.16161
2	0.72959	-0.87986	-0.69689	0.23982	-0.26904	-0.6208	0.77843	-0.78	-0.46967	0.52303	0.013953	0.55428	0.69645	-0.69457	-0.35136	0.37479	0.010195	0.21059	0.69291	-0.73948	-0.39208	0.38342	0.0086699	0.32158	0.43883	-0.73801	-0.48236	0.10901	-0.19637	-0.20889	0.185	-0.37615	-0.23363	0.041393	-0.098631	-0.089823
3	0.6421	-0.88707	-0.7653	0.092941	-0.39899	-0.56686	0.66482	-0.83371	-0.61143	0.34582	-0.15022	0.60819	0.47854	-0.81134	-0.59939	0.07615	-0.25676	-0.11186	0.49291	-0.83048	-0.60865	0.11343	-0.23519	0.014876	0.1844	-0.862	-0.70862	-0.18414	-0.45279	-0.52046	-0.047432	-0.56872	-0.45347	-0.19146	-0.32217	-0.3116
4	0.54307	-0.88427	-0.77906	0.025574	-0.44579	-0.42749	0.56229	-0.86834	-0.69962	0.18577	-0.27012	0.62479	0.28229	-0.88782	-0.74063	-0.14881	-0.44842	-0.36083	0.34653	-0.90257	-0.75307	-0.10781	-0.4256	-0.26112	-0.037729	-0.89711	-0.81682	-0.39411	-0.60836	-0.72262	-0.21815	-0.68853	-0.59419	-0.35769	-0.47864	-0.47113
5	0.54719	-0.87548	-0.77551	0.012486	-0.42515	-0.26222	0.5167	-0.88576	-0.74017	0.097114	-0.33722	0.62909	0.17523	-0.9057	-0.80266	-0.29816	-0.54721	-0.5153	0.29321	-0.92321	-0.82379	-0.26742	-0.54519	-0.47557	-0.11302	-0.90231	-0.83005	-0.50149	-0.66563	-0.80246	-0.31931	-0.75327	-0.66926	-0.45593	-0.56167	-0.56174
6	0.57733	-0.87038	-0.74449	0.088094	-0.37253	-0.11294	0.48608	-0.88971	-0.73849	0.062166	-0.36331	0.62102	0.19708	-0.91369	-0.80762	-0.34243	-0.5729	-0.5955	0.23211	-0.92938	-0.84729	-0.3672	-0.59998	-0.62307	-0.10405	-0.89316	-0.81937	-0.50094	-0.6569	-0.78938	-0.32849	-0.77292	-0.69577	-0.47219	-0.58652	-0.59654
7	0.56572	-0.84857	-0.69864	0.11508	-0.31733	0.0068641	0.48737	-0.86533	-0.71694	0.031037	-0.36618	0.58245	0.22817	-0.89814	-0.79487	-0.32778	-0.55855	-0.63501	0.25224	-0.9276	-0.84472	-0.36581	-0.60597	-0.71276	-0.070094	-0.87406	-0.79071	-0.44466	-0.61548	-0.72541	-0.29605	-0.77861	-0.6968	-0.45212	-0.57307	-0.59314
8	0.54458	-0.81665	-0.63995	0.11974	-0.267	0.10235	0.47346	-0.821	-0.69023	0.028956	-0.35544	0.49822	0.23379	-0.87242	-0.77389	-0.2823	-0.52536	-0.65316	0.27408	-0.91368	-0.82335	-0.31002	-0.57541	-0.75383	0.011489	-0.86169	-0.74945	-0.36851	-0.55528	-0.63699	-0.22901	-0.76548	-0.66762	-0.39912	-0.5322	-0.56125

Return to Figure 17b

Figure A.18A: Output and Real Rate decomposed with Small VAR (Full Sample) Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Periods	Green Total	Red MP	Blue Tech	Black-label Rest
-8	1.7	0.9219	-0.8635	1.6416
-7	1.0343	0.5357	-0.9947	1.4933
-6	0.358	0.1665	-1.055	1.2464
-5	-0.2742	-0.1857	-1.0081	0.9196
-4	-0.8382	-0.5445	-0.8261	0.5324
-3	-1.3294	-0.9241	-0.5028	0.0975
-2	-1.7474	-1.3028	-0.0666	-0.3779
-1	-2.0859	-1.6214	0.4139	-0.8784
0	-2.3291	-1.8084	0.8421	-1.3628
1	-2.4548	-1.8159	1.1227	-1.7615
2	-2.4388	-1.6429	1.2004	-1.9963
3	-2.2606	-1.3321	1.0859	-2.0145
4	-1.9095	-0.947	0.8524	-1.8149
5	-1.3929	-0.5447	0.6003	-1.4485
6	-0.7439	-0.1599	0.409	-0.993
7	-0.0235	0.1936	0.3018	-0.5188
8	0.6869	0.5115	0.2448	-0.0694

Return to Figure 18a

Figure A.18B: Output and Real Rate decomposed with Small VAR (Full Sample) Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance

Periods	MP Light Band, 95%-ub	MP Light Band, 95%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	MP Mean, Solid line	MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	Tech Mean, Solid line	Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	Rest Light Band, 95%-ub	Rest Light Band, 95%-lb	Rest Dark Band, 68%-lb	Rest Dark Band, 68%-ub	Rest Mean, Solid line	Rest VAR estimate, Dashed line	Total Light Band, 95%-ub	Total Light Band, 95%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-ub	Total Mean, Solid line	Total VAR estimate, Dashed line
-8	0.80714	-0.2995	0.1881	0.67513	0.43252	0.47714	0.62592	-0.68313	-0.47528	0.24325	-0.12165	-0.59404	0.79298	-0.43831	0.037812	0.6371	0.34136	0.68859	0.57595	-0.17702	0.029767	0.41927	0.22697	0.25471
-7	0.74558	-0.42676	0.046103	0.60394	0.32362	0.27726	0.52127	-0.74409	-0.56383	0.14802	-0.21647	-0.68428	0.75862	-0.5719	-0.089849	0.55245	0.23562	0.62637	0.50226	-0.25969	-0.063656	0.33118	0.1326	0.15497
-6	0.68841	-0.52607	-0.12783	0.51131	0.2074	0.086196	0.4365	-0.77696	-0.6164	0.07151	-0.27978	-0.72576	0.71263	-0.66517	-0.22638	0.45968	0.11993	0.52284	0.41302	-0.34062	-0.16274	0.23412	0.038673	0.05364
-5	0.64284	-0.58716	-0.27312	0.42118	0.090118	-0.096124	0.41825	-0.7838	-0.61748	0.054873	-0.29721	-0.69348	0.65246	-0.72554	-0.35768	0.34704	-0.0046394	0.38574	0.32537	-0.43033	-0.24851	0.14745	-0.047323	-0.04108
-4	0.63621	-0.67088	-0.40983	0.3403	-0.027298	-0.28182	0.43344	-0.77807	-0.60421	0.085059	-0.26319	-0.56829	0.56183	-0.76014	-0.49563	0.22236	-0.14171	0.22332	0.2557	-0.49735	-0.32309	0.069964	-0.12278	-0.12559
-3	0.64168	-0.76895	-0.55456	0.25683	-0.14646	-0.47828	0.50718	-0.79408	-0.58952	0.21218	-0.18221	-0.34588	0.50744	-0.81896	-0.62195	0.046179	-0.29139	0.040914	0.18656	-0.54799	-0.3885	0.007973	-0.18797	-0.19917
-2	0.6432	-0.86463	-0.68873	0.16973	-0.26809	-0.67428	0.63229	-0.82787	-0.58276	0.38664	-0.069559	-0.045831	0.50327	-0.88178	-0.75587	-0.11911	-0.44219	-0.15852	0.1621	-0.60089	-0.4454	-0.04749	-0.24352	-0.2618
-1	0.60101	-0.92918	-0.80654	0.071522	-0.38907	-0.83914	0.77955	-0.87061	-0.56755	0.56024	0.049858	0.28477	0.58724	-0.93664	-0.86286	-0.28077	-0.56961	-0.36846	0.12567	-0.64316	-0.48086	-0.09112	-0.28876	-0.31252
0	0.44572	-0.95798	-0.86928	-0.084681	-0.50063	-0.93591	0.87843	-0.89253	-0.49952	0.67885	0.14673	0.57929	0.6276	-0.96904	-0.92194	-0.35335	-0.64395	-0.57166	0.10314	-0.67838	-0.51226	-0.12326	-0.32133	-0.34896
1	0.21263	-0.95975	-0.87981	-0.25693	-0.58887	-0.93983	0.8894	-0.85161	-0.41619	0.71043	0.19694	0.77231	0.60628	-0.9729	-0.92093	-0.33922	-0.64377	-0.7389	0.087445	-0.68811	-0.52745	-0.14562	-0.33782	-0.3678
2	-0.038765	-0.94787	-0.86701	-0.40136	-0.63787	-0.85026	0.85002	-0.7422	-0.36834	0.67671	0.19197	0.82579	0.57278	-0.94882	-0.86967	-0.21425	-0.56676	-0.83739	0.090506	-0.67909	-0.52309	-0.1393	-0.33453	-0.3654
3	-0.06375	-0.93769	-0.85184	-0.41311	-0.63465	-0.68939	0.80987	-0.69354	-0.3359	0.58544	0.14395	0.74706	0.54094	-0.90254	-0.77613	-0.031378	-0.43106	-0.845	0.10463	-0.64684	-0.49913	-0.10731	-0.30839	-0.33869
4	0.073242	-0.92651	-0.83055	-0.29987	-0.57419	-0.49013	0.77421	-0.67519	-0.35657	0.51609	0.081059	0.5864	0.64289	-0.8326	-0.64992	0.14988	-0.26627	-0.76127	0.152	-0.60407	-0.45043	-0.051357	-0.25772	-0.28609
5	0.24871	-0.9028	-0.77129	-0.10999	-0.46167	-0.28193	0.76004	-0.69297	-0.41748	0.47365	0.034	0.41299	0.68683	-0.76309	-0.49591	0.30204	-0.10028	-0.60761	0.23804	-0.54199	-0.37964	0.019024	-0.18355	-0.2087
6	0.39922	-0.84214	-0.65841	0.071793	-0.31107	-0.08277	0.75966	-0.67364	-0.44235	0.47097	0.020835	0.2814	0.7362	-0.65534	-0.33862	0.43657	0.049783	-0.41654	0.3164	-0.46169	-0.28332	0.10901	-0.090744	-0.11146
7	0.51497	-0.72874	-0.49288	0.24462	-0.14078	0.10017	0.77478	-0.6449	-0.4249	0.50614	0.038784	0.20761	0.74352	-0.54116	-0.17829	0.53445	0.1779	-0.21763	0.41327	-0.38055	-0.18272	0.20961	0.011455	-0.0035183
8	0.61978	-0.58786	-0.32317	0.39873	0.031197	0.26472	0.78528	-0.59896	-0.38575	0.52873	0.067899	0.16841	0.77223	-0.42035	-0.045514	0.59556	0.28299	-0.029114	0.49038	-0.27861	-0.082366	0.30668	0.11069	0.10292

Return to Figure 18b

Figure A.19A: Output and Real Rate decomposed with Small VAR (Great Moderation) Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Periods	Green Total	Red MP	Blue Tech	Black-label Rest
-8	-0.5014	0.0854	-0.6327	0.0458
-7	-0.2406	0.0682	-0.3684	0.0596
-6	0.097	0.0417	-0.0313	0.0866
-5	0.4779	0.0033	0.3547	0.1199
-4	0.8377	-0.0461	0.7448	0.139
-3	1.0997	-0.0999	1.0785	0.121
-2	1.2071	-0.1468	1.2957	0.0582
-1	1.1483	-0.1749	1.3567	-0.0335
0	0.9604	-0.1773	1.2581	-0.1204
1	0.7074	-0.1553	1.0325	-0.1698
2	0.4489	-0.1171	0.735	-0.169
3	0.2183	-0.0734	0.4216	-0.13
4	0.021	-0.0323	0.1325	-0.0792
5	-0.1505	0.0028	-0.1137	-0.0396
6	-0.3002	0.0319	-0.3139	-0.0183
7	-0.422	0.0563	-0.4703	-0.008
8	-0.5056	0.0757	-0.584	0.0027

Return to Figure 19a

Figure A.19B: Output and Real Rate decomposed with Small VAR (Great Moderation) Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance

Periods	MP Light Band, 95%-ub	MP Light Band, 95%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	MP Mean, Solid line	MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	Tech Mean, Solid line	Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	Rest Light Band, 95%-ub	Rest Light Band, 95%-lb	Rest Dark Band, 68%-lb	Rest Dark Band, 68%-ub	Rest Mean, Solid line	Rest VAR estimate, Dashed line	Total Light Band, 95%-ub	Total Light Band, 95%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-ub	Total Mean, Solid line	Total VAR estimate, Dashed line
-8	0.63143	-0.55839	-0.39266	0.53124	0.13616	0.47102	0.61853	-0.71048	-0.5831	-0.14683	-0.34499	-0.44979	0.44739	-0.33073	-0.10962	0.32193	0.10341	0.22822	0.065597	-0.42518	-0.31725	-0.074067	-0.19254	-0.20299
-7	0.63007	-0.51304	-0.296	0.52236	0.14981	0.37607	0.71055	-0.61528	-0.44735	0.11385	-0.16998	-0.26191	0.4561	-0.28363	-0.028683	0.34133	0.15159	0.29691	0.18726	-0.3328	-0.21673	0.042013	-0.087209	-0.097396
-6	0.61835	-0.47802	-0.19327	0.48775	0.15633	0.22983	0.7982	-0.47084	-0.25546	0.37581	0.043609	-0.022257	0.53242	-0.29839	0.065129	0.42951	0.24776	0.43126	0.32431	-0.22472	-0.091731	0.18605	0.048203	0.039258
-5	0.60519	-0.523	-0.19331	0.44954	0.1423	0.018313	0.87356	-0.2711	-0.0022271	0.58445	0.27457	0.25215	0.71223	-0.4605	0.053202	0.61603	0.3626	0.5972	0.48344	-0.12654	0.047956	0.35115	0.19985	0.19348
-4	0.70693	-0.64744	-0.34944	0.52576	0.095178	-0.25394	0.92615	-0.15975	0.27012	0.74184	0.49243	0.52949	0.88869	-0.69661	-0.12087	0.827	0.42344	0.69206	0.61706	-0.027527	0.17937	0.50308	0.34146	0.33913
-3	0.8814	-0.8097	-0.581	0.7107	0.013656	-0.55077	0.96235	-0.21822	0.49316	0.87403	0.66389	0.76677	0.97546	-0.85758	-0.40376	0.93301	0.35839	0.6028	0.71423	0.066973	0.27699	0.60481	0.44243	0.44519
-2	0.97618	-0.93279	-0.80413	0.888	-0.087015	-0.80936	0.97657	-0.50613	0.68096	0.94801	0.76191	0.92114	0.95463	-0.92463	-0.67519	0.84236	0.15163	0.2898	0.75917	0.080908	0.30726	0.65272	0.48086	0.48867
-1	0.9971	-0.99062	-0.94205	0.95359	-0.1797	-0.96426	0.98309	-0.6779	0.73211	0.96435	0.77383	0.96455	0.82811	-0.94444	-0.81663	0.54128	-0.13283	-0.1669	0.76151	0.056404	0.26117	0.63346	0.45347	0.46489
0	0.99387	-0.99434	-0.97242	0.91935	-0.23818	-0.97755	0.97503	-0.74384	0.61124	0.93386	0.70465	0.89441	0.64616	-0.95951	-0.86956	0.17132	-0.38138	-0.5994	0.70027	-0.027425	0.18076	0.56578	0.37621	0.38882
1	0.9808	-0.96869	-0.93405	0.79236	-0.25007	-0.85618	0.92083	-0.70294	0.42325	0.8293	0.5741	0.73402	0.58072	-0.95858	-0.88285	-0.07783	-0.49697	-0.84574	0.6098	-0.10814	0.084804	0.46091	0.27516	0.28637
2	0.95017	-0.95173	-0.84075	0.61215	-0.22145	-0.64555	0.79789	-0.63056	0.21774	0.65593	0.4092	0.52252	0.56192	-0.88893	-0.79381	-0.081787	-0.45525	-0.84165	0.49631	-0.18436	-0.0022882	0.3496	0.17364	0.18173
3	0.88333	-0.93939	-0.68443	0.4233	-0.17081	-0.40441	0.60828	-0.53247	0.039231	0.45363	0.23581	0.29976	0.61569	-0.75798	-0.63078	0.059077	-0.3116	-0.64731	0.38071	-0.22894	-0.070875	0.23975	0.083805	0.088384
4	0.80114	-0.87315	-0.50867	0.31171	-0.11711	-0.17787	0.42636	-0.46935	-0.10883	0.25736	0.072883	0.094199	0.5795	-0.6047	-0.4551	0.22178	-0.15698	-0.3944	0.26533	-0.27211	-0.13046	0.14501	0.0067071	0.0085203
5	0.68614	-0.74867	-0.40974	0.28432	-0.070534	0.015209	0.27474	-0.41957	-0.2277	0.091807	-0.069012	-0.080856	0.5129	-0.48688	-0.35805	0.28754	-0.057636	-0.19699	0.18663	-0.31637	-0.18196	0.057184	-0.061187	-0.060939
6	0.57794	-0.64545	-0.42176	0.32942	-0.031217	0.17607	0.14764	-0.44527	-0.32541	-0.046188	-0.1858	-0.22315	0.45117	-0.45168	-0.32325	0.2897	-0.022172	-0.091136	0.12907	-0.35042	-0.23553	-0.0051277	-0.1212	-0.12155
7	0.51886	-0.58662	-0.46201	0.37421	0.0050841	0.31048	0.086927	-0.49769	-0.40819	-0.15454	-0.27677	-0.33434	0.42292	-0.46919	-0.32582	0.29108	-0.014577	-0.039856	0.079353	-0.38968	-0.28247	-0.052814	-0.17032	-0.17083
8	0.51767	-0.58726	-0.4898	0.41865	0.040227	0.41732	0.13288	-0.54274	-0.46953	-0.23006	-0.34228	-0.41518	0.43541	-0.48004	-0.31154	0.31003	0.0048732	0.013231	0.04918	-0.41905	-0.31938	-0.085803	-0.20405	-0.2047

Return to Figure 19b

Figure A.20A: Output and Real Rate decomposed with Small VAR (Great Inflation) Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Periods	Green Total	Red MP	Blue Tech	Black-label Rest
-8	0.0569	0.1799	-0.2075	0.0846
-7	-0.0247	0.1484	-0.2372	0.0641
-6	-0.1451	0.0873	-0.263	0.0306
-5	-0.2937	-0.0011	-0.2753	-0.0173
-4	-0.4386	-0.106	-0.257	-0.0756
-3	-0.5363	-0.2106	-0.1918	-0.1338
-2	-0.55	-0.2963	-0.0754	-0.1784
-1	-0.467	-0.3465	0.0775	-0.198
0	-0.3041	-0.3508	0.2351	-0.1884
1	-0.1001	-0.3071	0.3607	-0.1538
2	0.1005	-0.223	0.4274	-0.1039
3	0.2628	-0.1152	0.4276	-0.0496
4	0.3684	-0.0048	0.3726	0.0006
5	0.4148	0.0884	0.2842	0.0423
6	0.4096	0.1523	0.1835	0.0738
7	0.3653	0.1852	0.0853	0.0948
8	0.2963	0.1935	-0.0028	0.1056

Return to Figure 20a

Figure A.20B: Output and Real Rate decomposed with Small VAR (Great Inflation) Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance

Periods	MP Light Band, 95%-ub	MP Light Band, 95%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-lb	MP Dark Band, 68%-ub	MP Mean, Solid line	MP VAR estimate, Dashed line	Tech Light Band, 95%-ub	Tech Light Band, 95%-lb	Tech Dark Band, 68%-lb	Tech Dark Band, 68%-ub	Tech Mean, Solid line	Tech VAR estimate, Dashed line	Rest Light Band, 95%-ub	Rest Light Band, 95%-lb	Rest Dark Band, 68%-lb	Rest Dark Band, 68%-ub	Rest Mean, Solid line	Rest VAR estimate, Dashed line	Total Light Band, 95%-ub	Total Light Band, 95%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-lb	Total Dark Band, 68%-ub	Total Mean, Solid line	Total VAR estimate, Dashed line
-8	0.68229	-0.32936	0.10556	0.5444	0.32943	0.48483	0.63756	-0.65646	-0.4963	0.10471	-0.21262	-0.41748	0.5951	-0.33693	0.070111	0.47158	0.27897	0.42237	0.37899	-0.3428	-0.13676	0.22253	0.043763	0.051092
-7	0.68589	-0.39278	-0.020706	0.50597	0.25942	0.40004	0.62051	-0.70885	-0.57373	0.0019395	-0.29243	-0.47707	0.57035	-0.38428	-0.025966	0.41747	0.20895	0.32004	0.33312	-0.39941	-0.21651	0.16299	-0.025423	-0.022163
-6	0.62223	-0.52739	-0.20283	0.41049	0.12285	0.23535	0.50972	-0.76262	-0.63994	-0.13786	-0.39033	-0.52912	0.50441	-0.45506	-0.16936	0.319	0.081379	0.15296	0.25643	-0.49749	-0.32214	0.057217	-0.12945	-0.13032
-5	0.50523	-0.70657	-0.40189	0.25479	-0.071916	-0.0029191	0.3018	-0.80992	-0.69497	-0.30999	-0.48713	-0.55379	0.37759	-0.66026	-0.37553	0.15029	-0.11085	-0.086479	0.13195	-0.59194	-0.44188	-0.078739	-0.25916	-0.26378
-4	0.39983	-0.8801	-0.6269	0.045541	-0.2947	-0.28575	0.12361	-0.85819	-0.72713	-0.37216	-0.54273	-0.51693	0.22085	-0.85594	-0.63929	-0.079052	-0.34468	-0.37767	0.021034	-0.68718	-0.55998	-0.21202	-0.38585	-0.39393
-3	0.2983	-0.95962	-0.82537	-0.20016	-0.50331	-0.56783	0.077048	-0.89502	-0.73598	-0.28377	-0.51311	-0.38581	0.17999	-0.96766	-0.85118	-0.31104	-0.56701	-0.66848	-0.04133	-0.75812	-0.63833	-0.29889	-0.47	-0.48167
-2	0.25394	-0.96793	-0.90381	-0.42467	-0.65665	-0.79866	0.29041	-0.89566	-0.71414	-0.054564	-0.3755	-0.15158	0.34644	-0.98409	-0.94261	-0.54507	-0.71418	-0.89098	-0.025626	-0.77505	-0.66256	-0.28534	-0.47838	-0.49401
-1	0.35783	-0.96994	-0.9305	-0.5614	-0.72459	-0.93407	0.59838	-0.90304	-0.57614	0.25772	-0.14579	0.15594	0.57223	-0.98697	-0.96186	-0.59525	-0.74065	-0.98888	0.080403	-0.73445	-0.60732	-0.19241	-0.39978	-0.41943
0	0.51876	-0.98265	-0.94485	-0.45044	-0.69259	-0.94564	0.8312	-0.86178	-0.35497	0.56345	0.12427	0.473	0.79065	-0.98891	-0.95723	-0.3303	-0.64016	-0.94113	0.21907	-0.63415	-0.47233	-0.02342	-0.25046	-0.27313
1	0.65337	-0.97731	-0.91064	-0.22273	-0.56335	-0.82776	0.93568	-0.7714	-0.072418	0.77533	0.36904	0.72567	0.87847	-0.95628	-0.84947	-0.040652	-0.44679	-0.76816	0.38431	-0.47475	-0.29352	0.15832	-0.066607	-0.089936
2	0.74359	-0.92295	-0.75752	0.033833	-0.35777	-0.6012	0.92931	-0.56888	0.20613	0.85407	0.53688	0.85978	0.88463	-0.83234	-0.63575	0.20331	-0.21677	-0.51889	0.51568	-0.30863	-0.10716	0.32262	0.11081	0.090252
3	0.81187	-0.76824	-0.50066	0.25846	-0.11377	-0.31049	0.93587	-0.38189	0.36374	0.85079	0.60765	0.86012	0.88908	-0.67978	-0.37197	0.37717	-0.0031209	-0.24794	0.60327	-0.13936	0.058888	0.44022	0.25012	0.23599
4	0.88866	-0.56838	-0.22099	0.44551	0.1208	-0.012988	0.932	-0.16498	0.36711	0.83848	0.59184	0.74957	0.85992	-0.53109	-0.13248	0.46473	0.16222	0.002937	0.64243	-0.024129	0.17237	0.50629	0.33575	0.33087
5	0.87196	-0.33049	0.02992	0.5661	0.30183	0.23821	0.89956	-0.091975	0.24859	0.78731	0.51607	0.57162	0.81647	-0.48003	0.04303	0.51308	0.27136	0.2111	0.64267	0.044313	0.21693	0.51899	0.367	0.37255
6	0.80098	-0.14153	0.19463	0.61373	0.40417	0.41059	0.84776	-0.15331	0.12632	0.7027	0.40702	0.36911	0.72476	-0.48237	0.14184	0.54477	0.33169	0.36842	0.62098	0.023421	0.2028	0.50227	0.35269	0.36786
7	0.74759	-0.11751	0.26052	0.60866	0.42948	0.49933	0.76692	-0.24034	-0.0033034	0.57581	0.28341	0.17152	0.68333	-0.45348	0.1942	0.55719	0.35464	0.47345	0.59002	-0.036867	0.14816	0.46302	0.30581	0.3281
8	0.70373	-0.2333	0.23432	0.58453	0.4011	0.52158	0.69244	-0.33436	-0.13305	0.44303	0.1574	-0.0055994	0.67319	-0.46136	0.18661	0.56128	0.34944	0.52727	0.55185	-0.098547	0.075378	0.40203	0.24025	0.2661

Return to Figure 20b

Structural Shocks and the Comovements Between Output and Interest Rates

Figure 1: Lead-Lag Correlations for Output and Interest Rates

Figure 2: Cyclical Behavior of Output and Interest Rates

Figure 3A: Output and Real Rates: Conditional Comovements Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Figure 3B: Output and Real Rates: Conditional Comovements

Figure 4: Impulse Responses

Figure 5A: Output and Real Rates: Conditional Comovements (Great Moderation) Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Figure 5B: Output and Real Rates: Conditional Comovements (Great Moderation) Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance

Figure 6A: Output and Real Rates: Conditional Comovements (Great Inflation) Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Figure 6B: Output and Real Rates: Conditional Comovements (Great Inflation) Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance

Figure A.7: BC-Moments: Filtered VAR versus Data (Large VAR, Full Sample)

Figure A.8: BC-Moments: Filtered VAR versus Data (Large VAR, Great Moderation)

Figure A.9: BC-Moments: Filtered VAR versus Data (Large VAR, Great Inflation)

Figure A.10: Impulse Responses (Large VAR, Great Moderation)

Figure A.11: Impulse Responses (Large VAR, Great Inflation)

Figure A.12A: Output and Nominal Rates (Large VAR, Full Sample) Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Figure A.12B: Output and Nominal Rates (Large VAR, Full Sample) Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance

Figure A.13A: Output and Nominal Rates (Large VAR, Great Moderation) Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Figure A.13B: Output and Nominal Rates (Large VAR, Great Moderation) Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance

Figure A.14A: Output and Nominal Rates (Large VAR, Great Inflation) Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Figure A.14B: Output and Nominal Rates (Large VAR, Great Inflation) Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance

Figure A.15: Impulse Responses (Full Sample w/Nominal Trend)

Figure A.16A: Output and Real Rates (Full Sample w/Nominal Trend) Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Figure A.16B: Output and Real Rates (Full Sample w/Nominal Trend) Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance

Figure A.17A: Output and Nominal Rates (Full Sample w/Nominal Trend) Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Figure A.17B: Output and Nominal Rates (Full Sample w/Nominal Trend) Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance

Figure A.18A: Output and Real Rate decomposed with Small VAR (Full Sample) Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Figure A.18B: Output and Real Rate decomposed with Small VAR (Full Sample) Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance

Figure A.19A: Output and Real Rate decomposed with Small VAR (Great Moderation) Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Figure A.19B: Output and Real Rate decomposed with Small VAR (Great Moderation) Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance

Figure A.20A: Output and Real Rate decomposed with Small VAR (Great Inflation) Top Panel--Covariance Decomposition

Figure A.20B: Output and Real Rate decomposed with Small VAR (Great Inflation) Bottom Panel--Conditional Covariance