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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 2010-27 ♣

Output Gaps

Michael T. Kiley

Figure 2: Beveridge-Nelson Gap

Date percent deviation Beveridge-Nelson trend four-quarter percent change Beveridge-Nelson trend one-quarter percent change at an annual rate
85:01 0.62 3.73 3.73
85:02 0.54 3.71 3.69
85:03 0.52 4.57 6.28
85:04 0.61 4.1 2.7
86:01 0.51 4.22 4.22
86:02 0.12 4.09 3.16
86:03 0.1 3.49 3.88
86:04 0.22 3.19 1.49
87:01 0.68 2.22 0.34
87:02 0.97 2.2 3.09
87:03 1.08 1.98 3
87:04 1.29 3.1 5.96
88:01 1.3 3.52 2.03
88:02 1.87 3.45 2.8
88:03 2.05 3.04 1.37
88:04 2.47 2.45 3.61
89:01 2.85 2.49 2.2
89:02 2.88 2.52 2.9
89:03 2.7 3.14 3.85
89:04 2.54 2.62 1.55
90:01 2.4 3.25 4.69
90:02 1.76 3.56 4.16
90:03 1.19 3.16 2.25
90:04 0.59 2.5 -1.09
91:01 -0.43 1.86 2.13
91:02 -1.32 2.38 6.22
91:03 -1.83 2.75 3.72
91:04 -2.43 4.02 4
92:01 -3.13 5.27 7.13
92:02 -3.39 5.03 5.28
92:03 -3.53 5.27 4.69
92:04 -3.36 5.15 3.5
93:01 -2.93 3.11 -1.02
93:02 -2.33 1.84 0.18
93:03 -2.17 1.03 1.47
93:04 -1.9 1.2 4.17
94:01 -1.71 2.23 3.09
94:02 -0.85 2.68 1.98
94:03 -0.25 2.36 0.19
94:04 -0.01 2.17 3.43
95:01 0.23 1.41 0.05
95:02 0.14 1.22 1.22
95:03 0.25 1.9 2.91
95:04 0.04 1.95 3.62
96:01 -0.38 3.03 4.39
96:02 -0.31 4.38 6.59
96:03 0.01 4.2 2.2
96:04 0.51 3.88 2.33
97:01 0.88 3.18 1.58
97:02 1.05 2.83 5.22
97:03 1.2 3.38 4.38
97:04 1.39 3.37 2.3
98:01 1.57 3.73 3.03
98:02 1.71 3.19 3.03
98:03 1.72 3.39 5.2
98:04 2.18 4.07 5
99:01 2.26 4.12 3.26
99:02 2.56 3.84 1.91
99:03 2.83 3.53 3.96
99:04 3.02 3.87 6.38
0:01 3.14 3.2 0.57
0:02 3.12 4.68 7.8
0:03 3.14 3.75 0.26
0:04 2.96 2.92 3.05
1:01 2.69 2.72 -0.21
1:02 1.87 2.24 5.88
1:03 0.94 2.83 2.61
1:04 -0.07 3.43 5.45
2:01 -0.99 5.26 7.1
2:02 -1.18 4.52 2.9
2:03 -1.58 4.76 3.57
2:04 -2.01 3.84 1.8
3:01 -2.57 3.04 3.87
3:02 -2.96 3.5 4.75
3:03 -3.13 4.44 7.32
3:04 -2.95 4.7 2.86
4:01 -2.7 4.18 1.79
4:02 -2.7 3.71 2.87
4:03 -2.49 2.4 2.07
4:04 -2.05 2.11 1.71
5:01 -1.82 2.42 3.03
5:02 -1.66 1.97 1.08
5:03 -1.62 2.17 2.86
5:04 -1.25 1.89 0.59
6:01 -0.67 1.86 2.91
6:02 -0.46 1.73 0.56
6:03 -0.23 0.82 -0.79
6:04 -0.04 1.21 2.16
7:01 0.01 0.73 0.99
7:02 0.11 1.28 2.75
7:03 -0.03 2.5 4.12
7:04 -0.12 2.57 2.43
8:01 -0.4 2.42 0.4
8:02 -0.74 2.44 2.83
8:03 -1.53 1.52 0.43
8:04 -3.2 1.21 1.18
9:01 -4.77 1.02 -0.38
9:02 -6.2 1.55 4.98
Return to Figure 2

Figure 3: Production-Function Gap

Date Production function gap Beveridge-Nelson gap percent deviation Production function trend one-quarter percent change Beveridge-Nelson trend one-quarter percent change at an annual rate Production function trend four-quarter percent change Beveridge-Nelson trend four-quarter percent change at an annual rate
85:01 -1.08 0.62 3.94 3.73 3.94 3.73
85:02 -1.08 0.54 3.37 3.69 3.66 3.71
85:03 -0.9 0.52 5.45 6.28 4.26 4.57
85:04 -0.86 0.61 2.87 2.7 3.91 4.1
86:01 -0.97 0.51 4.27 4.22 3.99 4.22
86:02 -1.42 0.12 3.41 3.16 4 4.09
86:03 -1.36 0.1 3.6 3.88 3.54 3.49
86:04 -1.25 0.22 1.47 1.49 3.19 3.19
87:01 -0.85 0.68 0.63 0.34 2.28 2.22
87:02 -0.46 0.97 2.67 3.09 2.09 2.2
87:03 -0.23 1.08 2.54 3 1.83 1.98
87:04 0.43 1.29 4.12 5.96 2.49 3.1
88:01 0.38 1.3 2.27 2.03 2.9 3.52
88:02 1.01 1.87 2.58 2.8 2.88 3.45
88:03 1.07 2.05 1.84 1.37 2.7 3.04
88:04 1.59 2.47 3.24 3.61 2.48 2.45
89:01 2.01 2.85 2.04 2.2 2.42 2.49
89:02 1.99 2.88 3.06 2.9 2.55 2.52
89:03 1.87 2.7 3.66 3.85 3 3.14
89:04 1.56 2.54 2.08 1.55 2.71 2.62
90:01 1.56 2.4 4.15 4.69 3.24 3.25
90:02 1 1.76 3.85 4.16 3.44 3.56
90:03 0.3 1.19 2.79 2.25 3.22 3.16
90:04 -0.82 0.59 0.95 -1.09 2.94 2.5
91:01 -2.01 -0.43 2.84 2.13 2.61 1.86
91:02 -2.64 -1.32 5.18 6.22 2.94 2.38
91:03 -3.01 -1.83 3.18 3.72 3.04 2.75
91:04 -3.45 -2.43 3.34 4 3.63 4.02
92:01 -3.86 -3.13 6 7.13 4.42 5.27
92:02 -3.83 -3.39 4.12 5.28 4.16 5.03
92:03 -3.84 -3.53 4.12 4.69 4.39 5.27
92:04 -3.57 -3.36 3.1 3.5 4.33 5.15
93:01 -3.37 -2.93 -0.06 -1.02 2.82 3.11
93:02 -2.96 -2.33 0.93 0.18 2.02 1.84
93:03 -2.94 -2.17 2.02 1.47 1.5 1.03
93:04 -2.53 -1.9 3.61 4.17 1.62 1.2
94:01 -2.26 -1.71 2.78 3.09 2.33 2.23
94:02 -1.39 -0.85 1.97 1.98 2.59 2.68
94:03 -1.04 -0.25 1.17 0.19 2.38 2.36
94:04 -0.61 -0.01 2.68 3.43 2.15 2.17
95:01 -0.55 0.23 0.75 0.05 1.64 1.41
95:02 -0.72 0.14 1.53 1.22 1.53 1.22
95:03 -0.52 0.25 2.54 2.91 1.87 1.9
95:04 -0.56 0.04 2.96 3.62 1.94 1.95
96:01 -0.81 -0.38 3.73 4.39 2.69 3.03
96:02 -0.31 -0.31 4.83 6.59 3.52 4.38
96:03 0.08 0.01 1.91 2.2 3.36 4.2
96:04 0.61 0.51 2.23 2.33 3.18 3.88
97:01 1.03 0.88 1.39 1.58 2.59 3.18
97:02 1.44 1.05 4.25 5.22 2.45 2.83
97:03 1.74 1.2 3.77 4.38 2.91 3.38
97:04 1.89 1.39 2.48 2.3 2.97 3.37
98:01 2.14 1.57 2.74 3.03 3.31 3.73
98:02 2.24 1.71 3.21 3.03 3.05 3.19
98:03 2.4 1.72 4.59 5.2 3.26 3.39
98:04 3.02 2.18 4.37 5 3.73 4.07
99:01 3.07 2.26 3.36 3.26 3.89 4.12
99:02 3.18 2.56 2.67 1.91 3.75 3.84
99:03 3.47 2.83 3.91 3.96 3.58 3.53
99:04 3.84 3.02 5.63 6.38 3.89 3.87
0:01 3.68 3.14 1.67 0.57 3.47 3.2
0:02 3.96 3.12 6.64 7.8 4.46 4.68
0:03 3.62 3.14 1.66 0.26 3.9 3.75
0:04 3.34 2.96 3.49 3.05 3.36 2.92
1:01 2.67 2.69 1.35 -0.21 3.28 2.72
1:02 2.01 1.87 5.26 5.88 2.94 2.24
1:03 1.02 0.94 2.86 2.61 3.24 2.83
1:04 0.16 -0.07 4.85 5.45 3.58 3.43
2:01 -0.32 -0.99 5.37 7.1 4.59 5.26
2:02 -0.41 -1.18 2.46 2.9 3.89 4.52
2:03 -0.6 -1.58 2.76 3.57 3.86 4.76
2:04 -0.91 -2.01 1.31 1.8 2.98 3.84
3:01 -1.23 -2.57 2.91 3.87 2.36 3.04
3:02 -1.36 -2.96 3.68 4.75 2.67 3.5
3:03 -1.04 -3.13 5.39 7.32 3.32 4.44
3:04 -0.76 -2.95 2.46 2.86 3.61 4.7
4:01 -0.57 -2.7 2.03 1.79 3.39 4.18
4:02 -0.45 -2.7 2.36 2.87 3.06 3.71
4:03 -0.18 -2.49 1.82 2.07 2.17 2.4
4:04 0.27 -2.05 1.67 1.71 1.97 2.11
5:01 0.61 -1.82 2.61 3.03 2.12 2.42
5:02 0.72 -1.66 1.27 1.08 1.84 1.97
5:03 0.92 -1.62 2.22 2.86 1.94 2.17
5:04 1.29 -1.25 0.59 0.59 1.67 1.89
6:01 2.02 -0.67 2.28 2.91 1.59 1.86
6:02 2.17 -0.46 0.86 0.56 1.49 1.73
6:03 2.22 -0.23 -0.11 -0.79 0.9 0.82
6:04 2.4 -0.04 2.22 2.16 1.31 1.21
7:01 2.32 0.01 1.48 0.99 1.11 0.73
7:02 2.4 0.11 2.87 2.75 1.61 1.28
7:03 2.26 -0.03 4.07 4.12 2.66 2.5
7:04 1.98 -0.12 3.23 2.43 2.91 2.57
8:01 1.33 -0.4 1.86 0.4 3.01 2.42
8:02 0.82 -0.74 3.5 2.83 3.17 2.44
8:03 -0.3 -1.53 1.78 0.43 2.59 1.52
8:04 -2.33 -3.2 2.56 1.18 2.43 1.21
9:01 -4.54 -4.77 2.2 -0.38 2.51 1.02
9:02 -5.99 -6.2 5.06 4.98 2.9 1.55
Return to Figure 3

Figure 4: Natural-Rate Gap

Date Natural rate gap Beveridge-Nelson gap percent deviation Natural rate gap change from four quarters earlier Beveridge-Nelson trend change from four quarters earlier
85:01 -0.68 0.62 ND ND
85:02 -1 0.54 ND ND
85:03 -1.22 0.52 ND ND
85:04 -1.3 0.61 -1.3 -0.01
86:01 -1.99 0.51 -1.31 -0.12
86:02 -3.13 0.12 -2.13 -0.43
86:03 -3.84 0.1 -2.62 -0.42
86:04 -3.88 0.22 -2.57 -0.39
87:01 -3.35 0.68 -1.37 0.18
87:02 -3.11 0.97 0.02 0.85
87:03 -3.01 1.08 0.83 0.98
87:04 -2.11 1.29 1.76 1.07
88:01 -2.28 1.3 1.07 0.61
88:02 -1.7 1.87 1.41 0.91
88:03 -1.41 2.05 1.6 0.96
88:04 -0.82 2.47 1.3 1.18
89:01 -0.06 2.85 2.22 1.56
89:02 0.03 2.88 1.74 1
89:03 0.16 2.7 1.57 0.66
89:04 0.27 2.54 1.09 0.07
90:01 0.42 2.4 0.48 -0.45
90:02 0.56 1.76 0.53 -1.12
90:03 0.5 1.19 0.34 -1.51
90:04 -0.51 0.59 -0.78 -1.95
91:01 -1.24 -0.43 -1.66 -2.83
91:02 -1.79 -1.32 -2.36 -3.07
91:03 -2.33 -1.83 -2.83 -3.02
91:04 -2.83 -2.43 -2.32 -3.02
92:01 -3.6 -3.13 -2.36 -2.69
92:02 -3.63 -3.39 -1.83 -2.07
92:03 -3.79 -3.53 -1.46 -1.71
92:04 -3.76 -3.36 -0.92 -0.93
93:01 -3.8 -2.93 -0.2 0.2
93:02 -3.72 -2.33 -0.09 1.06
93:03 -3.97 -2.17 -0.17 1.36
93:04 -3.74 -1.9 0.02 1.46
94:01 -3.46 -1.71 0.34 1.22
94:02 -2.86 -0.85 0.86 1.49
94:03 -2.82 -0.25 1.15 1.92
94:04 -2.13 -0.01 1.61 1.9
95:01 -2.03 0.23 1.43 1.94
95:02 -2.15 0.14 0.71 0.98
95:03 -2.27 0.25 0.55 0.5
95:04 -2.27 0.04 -0.14 0.04
96:01 -2.48 -0.38 -0.45 -0.6
96:02 -2.07 -0.31 0.09 -0.45
96:03 -1.64 0.01 0.63 -0.24
96:04 -1.3 0.51 0.97 0.47
97:01 -0.68 0.88 1.8 1.25
97:02 -0.18 1.05 1.89 1.36
97:03 0.38 1.2 2.02 1.19
97:04 0.59 1.39 1.89 0.88
98:01 1.04 1.57 1.72 0.69
98:02 0.96 1.71 1.14 0.66
98:03 1.16 1.72 0.78 0.52
98:04 1.74 2.18 1.15 0.8
99:01 2.13 2.26 1.09 0.69
99:02 2.31 2.56 1.35 0.85
99:03 2.85 2.83 1.69 1.12
99:04 3.53 3.02 1.79 0.84
0:01 3.7 3.14 1.57 0.88
0:02 4.71 3.12 2.4 0.56
0:03 4.73 3.14 1.89 0.31
0:04 4.61 2.96 1.08 -0.05
1:01 3.58 2.69 -0.12 -0.45
1:02 2.95 1.87 -1.76 -1.25
1:03 1.97 0.94 -2.76 -2.19
1:04 0.96 -0.07 -3.65 -3.03
2:01 0.67 -0.99 -2.92 -3.67
2:02 0.38 -1.18 -2.57 -3.05
2:03 -0.01 -1.58 -1.98 -2.52
2:04 -0.48 -2.01 -1.44 -1.94
3:01 -1 -2.57 -1.66 -1.58
3:02 -1.41 -2.96 -1.79 -1.78
3:03 -1.33 -3.13 -1.32 -1.55
3:04 -1.29 -2.95 -0.82 -0.94
4:01 -1.32 -2.7 -0.32 -0.13
4:02 -1.33 -2.7 0.08 0.26
4:03 -1.28 -2.49 0.04 0.64
4:04 -0.9 -2.05 0.4 0.9
5:01 -0.85 -1.82 0.46 0.88
5:02 -1.29 -1.66 0.04 1.04
5:03 -1.26 -1.62 0.02 0.87
5:04 -0.72 -1.25 0.18 0.8
6:01 0.01 -0.67 0.86 1.14
6:02 0.52 -0.46 1.81 1.21
6:03 1.11 -0.23 2.38 1.39
6:04 1.71 -0.04 2.43 1.21
7:01 2.35 0.01 2.34 0.68
7:02 3.09 0.11 2.57 0.57
7:03 3.76 -0.03 2.65 0.2
7:04 4.25 -0.12 2.54 -0.07
8:01 4.44 -0.4 2.08 -0.41
8:02 4.5 -0.74 1.42 -0.86
8:03 4.08 -1.53 0.32 -1.49
8:04 2.87 -3.2 -1.38 -3.09
9:01 0.89 -4.77 -3.55 -4.37
9:02 -0.29 -6.2 -4.8 -5.46
Return to Figure 4

Figure 5: Natural-Rate of Interest and Beveridge-Nelson Gap

Date Beveridge-Nelson gap percent deviation Natural rate of interest
85:01 0.62 1.65
85:02 0.54 1.35
85:03 0.52 1.65
85:04 0.61 1.5
86:01 0.51 1.38
86:02 0.12 1.03
86:03 0.1 1.11
86:04 0.22 1.26
87:01 0.68 1.46
87:02 0.97 1.71
87:03 1.08 1.62
87:04 1.29 1.8
88:01 1.3 1.71
88:02 1.87 2.1
88:03 2.05 2.22
88:04 2.47 2.58
89:01 2.85 2.66
89:02 2.88 2.37
89:03 2.7 2.41
89:04 2.54 2.27
90:01 2.4 2.2
90:02 1.76 1.95
90:03 1.19 1.65
90:04 0.59 0.74
91:01 -0.43 0.48
91:02 -1.32 0.65
91:03 -1.83 0.42
91:04 -2.43 -0.02
92:01 -3.13 0.13
92:02 -3.39 0
92:03 -3.53 -0.1
92:04 -3.36 0.07
93:01 -2.93 -0.12
93:02 -2.33 0.15
93:03 -2.17 0.19
93:04 -1.9 0.34
94:01 -1.71 0.44
94:02 -0.85 0.8
94:03 -0.25 0.78
94:04 -0.01 1.13
95:01 0.23 0.91
95:02 0.14 1.01
95:03 0.25 1.13
95:04 0.04 1.07
96:01 -0.38 0.96
96:02 -0.31 1.24
96:03 0.01 1.14
96:04 0.51 1.23
97:01 0.88 1.42
97:02 1.05 1.3
97:03 1.2 1.62
97:04 1.39 1.47
98:01 1.57 1.6
98:02 1.71 1.69
98:03 1.72 1.75
98:04 2.18 1.88
99:01 2.26 1.7
99:02 2.56 1.84
99:03 2.83 2.05
99:04 3.02 2.31
0:01 3.14 2.23
0:02 3.12 2.55
0:03 3.14 2.25
0:04 2.96 2.22
1:01 2.69 1.61
1:02 1.87 1.37
1:03 0.94 0.92
1:04 -0.07 0.75
2:01 -0.99 0.62
2:02 -1.18 0.65
2:03 -1.58 0.52
2:04 -2.01 0.37
3:01 -2.57 0.24
3:02 -2.96 0.29
3:03 -3.13 0.58
3:04 -2.95 0.43
4:01 -2.7 0.59
4:02 -2.7 0.49
4:03 -2.49 0.64
4:04 -2.05 1.03
5:01 -1.82 1
5:02 -1.66 1.02
5:03 -1.62 1.23
5:04 -1.25 1.47
6:01 -0.67 1.85
6:02 -0.46 1.71
6:03 -0.23 1.81
6:04 -0.04 2.03
7:01 0.01 2.09
7:02 0.11 1.95
7:03 -0.03 1.82
7:04 -0.12 1.51
8:01 -0.4 0.98
8:02 -0.74 0.75
8:03 -1.53 0.05
8:04 -3.2 -0.91
9:01 -4.77 -1.32
9:02 -6.2 -1.29
Return to Figure 5

Figure 6: CBO Gap

Date CBO gap Beveridge-Nelson gap percent deviation CBO trend one-quarter percent change Beveridge-Nelson trend one-quarter percent change at an annual rate
85:01 ND 0.62 ND 3.73
85:02 ND 0.54 ND 3.69
85:03 ND 0.52 ND 6.28
85:04 -0.3 0.61 ND 2.7
86:01 -0.16 0.51 3.35 4.22
86:02 -0.57 0.12 3.28 3.16
86:03 -0.41 0.1 3.24 3.88
86:04 -0.71 0.22 3.19 1.49
87:01 -0.93 0.68 3.16 0.34
87:02 -0.65 0.97 3.14 3.09
87:03 -0.55 1.08 3.12 3
87:04 0.38 1.29 3.11 5.96
88:01 0.13 1.3 3.1 2.03
88:02 0.65 1.87 3.09 2.8
88:03 0.4 2.05 3.08 1.37
88:04 0.97 2.47 3.08 3.61
89:01 1.15 2.85 3.08 2.2
89:02 1.13 2.88 3.09 2.9
89:03 1.16 2.7 3.07 3.85
89:04 0.63 2.54 3.06 1.55
90:01 0.92 2.4 3.03 4.69
90:02 0.58 1.76 2.98 4.16
90:03 -0.14 1.19 2.93 2.25
90:04 -1.72 0.59 2.86 -1.09
91:01 -2.89 -0.43 2.77 2.13
91:02 -2.88 -1.32 2.69 6.22
91:03 -3.11 -1.83 2.63 3.72
91:04 -3.36 -2.43 2.59 4
92:01 -2.9 -3.13 2.57 7.13
92:02 -2.48 -3.39 2.56 5.28
92:03 -2.09 -3.53 2.58 4.69
92:04 -1.69 -3.36 2.6 3.5
93:01 -2.16 -2.93 2.65 -1.02
93:02 -2.18 -2.33 2.7 0.18
93:03 -2.33 -2.17 2.74 1.47
93:04 -1.71 -1.9 2.78 4.17
94:01 -1.43 -1.71 2.81 3.09
94:02 -0.77 -0.85 2.84 1.98
94:03 -0.84 -0.25 2.87 0.19
94:04 -0.45 -0.01 2.9 3.43
95:01 -0.93 0.23 2.93 0.05
95:02 -1.44 0.14 2.97 1.22
95:03 -1.35 0.25 2.99 2.91
95:04 -1.4 0.04 3.02 3.62
96:01 -1.47 -0.38 3.06 4.39
96:02 -0.51 -0.31 3.08 6.59
96:03 -0.41 0.01 3.11 2.2
96:04 -0.1 0.51 3.15 2.33
97:01 -0.11 0.88 3.18 1.58
97:02 0.56 1.05 3.23 5.22
97:03 1 1.2 3.27 4.38
97:04 0.95 1.39 3.33 2.3
98:01 1.06 1.57 3.38 3.03
98:02 1.11 1.71 3.43 3.03
98:03 1.57 1.72 3.46 5.2
98:04 2.43 2.18 3.49 5
99:01 2.46 2.26 3.5 3.26
99:02 2.38 2.56 3.49 1.91
99:03 2.77 2.83 3.52 3.96
99:04 3.68 3.02 3.56 6.38
0:01 3.05 3.14 3.61 0.57
0:02 4.08 3.12 3.7 7.8
0:03 3.24 3.14 3.74 0.26
0:04 2.91 2.96 3.77 3.05
1:01 1.65 2.69 3.79 -0.21
1:02 1.39 1.87 3.73 5.88
1:03 0.21 0.94 3.67 2.61
1:04 -0.32 -0.07 3.59 5.45
2:01 -0.31 -0.99 3.46 7.1
2:02 -0.62 -1.18 3.38 2.9
2:03 -0.93 -1.58 3.29 3.57
2:04 -1.69 -2.01 3.18 1.8
3:01 -2.05 -2.57 3.1 3.87
3:02 -1.99 -2.96 2.97 4.75
3:03 -1.03 -3.13 2.85 7.32
3:04 -0.81 -2.95 2.74 2.86
4:01 -0.75 -2.7 2.62 1.79
4:02 -0.67 -2.7 2.54 2.87
4:03 -0.55 -2.49 2.47 2.07
4:04 -0.29 -2.05 2.43 1.71
5:01 0.11 -1.82 2.42 3.03
5:02 -0.06 -1.66 2.41 1.08
5:03 0.1 -1.62 2.42 2.86
5:04 0.01 -1.25 2.44 0.59
6:01 0.71 -0.67 2.46 2.91
6:02 0.45 -0.46 2.5 0.56
6:03 -0.15 -0.23 2.53 -0.79
6:04 -0.05 -0.04 2.55 2.16
7:01 -0.39 0.01 2.58 0.99
7:02 -0.23 0.11 2.57 2.75
7:03 0.02 -0.03 2.57 4.12
7:04 -0.09 -0.12 2.55 2.43
8:01 -0.89 -0.4 2.52 0.4
8:02 -1.15 -0.74 2.5 2.83
8:03 -2.43 -1.53 2.44 0.43
8:04 -4.38 -3.2 2.34 1.18
9:01 -6.6 -4.77 2.23 -0.38
9:02 -7.29 -6.2 2.06 4.98
Return to Figure 6

Figure 7: FRB/US Gap

Date FRB/US gap Beveridge-Nelson gap percent deviation FRB/US trend one-quarter percent change Beveridge-Nelson trend one-quarter percent change at an annual rate
85:01 0.25 0.62 3.04 3.73
85:02 0.31 0.54 3.18 3.69
85:03 0.59 0.52 5.24 6.28
85:04 0.45 0.61 3.63 2.7
86:01 0.11 0.51 5.32 4.22
86:02 -0.73 0.12 5.09 3.16
86:03 -0.73 0.1 3.92 3.88
86:04 -0.78 0.22 2.14 1.49
87:01 -0.41 0.68 0.74 0.34
87:02 -0.18 0.97 3.36 3.09
87:03 -0.03 1.08 2.9 3
87:04 0.97 1.29 2.83 5.96
88:01 0.43 1.3 4.33 2.03
88:02 1.61 1.87 0.37 2.8
88:03 1.15 2.05 4 1.37
88:04 1.97 2.47 2.05 3.61
89:01 2.06 2.85 3.43 2.2
89:02 1.94 2.88 3.49 2.9
89:03 1.83 2.7 3.68 3.85
89:04 1.24 2.54 3.27 1.55
90:01 1.32 2.4 3.92 4.69
90:02 0.63 1.76 4.43 4.16
90:03 -0.35 1.19 4.03 2.25
90:04 -1.64 0.59 1.63 -1.09
91:01 -2.92 -0.43 3.24 2.13
91:02 -3.06 -1.32 3.29 6.22
91:03 -3.12 -1.83 1.95 3.72
91:04 -3.38 -2.43 2.63 4
92:01 -3.58 -3.13 5.33 7.13
92:02 -3.34 -3.39 3.32 5.28
92:03 -3.39 -3.53 4.39 4.69
92:04 -2.92 -3.36 2.33 3.5
93:01 -3.01 -2.93 1.11 -1.02
93:02 -2.59 -2.33 0.87 0.18
93:03 -2.61 -2.17 2.21 1.47
93:04 -1.94 -1.9 2.58 4.17
94:01 -1.8 -1.71 3.37 3.09
94:02 -0.43 -0.85 -0.04 1.98
94:03 -0.14 -0.25 1.43 0.19
94:04 0.17 -0.01 3.22 3.43
95:01 0.09 0.23 1.31 0.05
95:02 -0.34 0.14 2.61 1.22
95:03 0.41 0.25 0.33 2.91
95:04 0.26 0.04 3.46 3.62
96:01 -0.05 -0.38 4.04 4.39
96:02 0.86 -0.31 3.27 6.59
96:03 1.02 0.01 2.87 2.2
96:04 1.59 0.51 2.09 2.33
97:01 1.86 0.88 2.01 1.58
97:02 2.24 1.05 4.47 5.22
97:03 2.44 1.2 4.24 4.38
97:04 2.36 1.39 3.45 2.3
98:01 2.42 1.57 3.6 3.03
98:02 2.43 1.71 3.59 3.03
98:03 2.48 1.72 5.18 5.2
98:04 3.61 2.18 2.38 5
99:01 3.07 2.26 5.84 3.26
99:02 3.17 2.56 2.79 1.91
99:03 3.56 2.83 3.54 3.96
99:04 3.99 3.02 5.54 6.38
0:01 3.35 3.14 3.66 0.57
0:02 3.78 3.12 6.21 7.8
0:03 3.09 3.14 3.11 0.26
0:04 2.47 2.96 4.96 3.05
1:01 1.62 2.69 2.11 -0.21
1:02 1.13 1.87 4.68 5.88
1:03 -0.04 0.94 3.65 2.61
1:04 -0.85 -0.07 4.75 5.45
2:01 -1.09 -0.99 4.5 7.1
2:02 -1.14 -1.18 2.34 2.9
2:03 -1.51 -1.58 3.54 3.57
2:04 -1.72 -2.01 0.94 1.8
3:01 -2.24 -2.57 3.76 3.87
3:02 -2.3 -2.96 3.46 4.75
3:03 -1.36 -3.13 2.93 7.32
3:04 -1.1 -2.95 2.59 2.86
4:01 -1.04 -2.7 2.59 1.79
4:02 -1.05 -2.7 2.92 2.87
4:03 -0.78 -2.49 1.86 2.07
4:04 -0.42 -2.05 2.05 1.71
5:01 -0.17 -1.82 2.99 3.03
5:02 -0.16 -1.66 1.67 1.08
5:03 -0.07 -1.62 2.7 2.86
5:04 0.24 -1.25 0.84 0.59
6:01 1.21 -0.67 1.35 2.91
6:02 0.81 -0.46 3.09 0.56
6:03 0.67 -0.23 0.66 -0.79
6:04 1.04 -0.04 1.43 2.16
7:01 0.75 0.01 2.42 0.99
7:02 1.13 0.11 1.64 2.75
7:03 1.26 -0.03 3.07 4.12
7:04 1.13 -0.12 2.65 2.43
8:01 0.24 -0.4 2.88 0.4
8:02 -0.11 -0.74 2.86 2.83
8:03 -1.48 -1.53 2.79 0.43
8:04 -3.68 -3.2 3.35 1.18
9:01 -5.98 -4.77 2.61 -0.38
9:02 -7.04 -6.2 3.53 4.98
Return to Figure 7
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Last update: March 29, 2013