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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 2011-37 ♣

The unreliability of credit-to-GDP ratio gaps in real-time: Implications for countercyclical capital buffers

Rochelle M. Edge and Ralf R. Meisenzahl

Fig. 1a: Credit-to-GDP Ratios: Final 10q4 vintage

  10q4
1954-01-01 51.01
1954-04-01 51.98
1954-07-01 52.59
1954-10-01 52.71
1955-01-01 52.77
1955-04-01 53.88
1955-07-01 54.81
1955-10-01 55.96
1956-01-01 57.46
1956-04-01 58.38
1956-07-01 59.18
1956-10-01 59.37
1957-01-01 59.8
1957-04-01 61.04
1957-07-01 61.35
1957-10-01 62.98
1958-01-01 64.99
1958-04-01 65.14
1958-07-01 64.51
1958-10-01 64.44
1959-01-01 64.69
1959-04-01 65.06
1959-07-01 66.82
1959-10-01 68.04
1960-01-01 67.89
1960-04-01 69.64
1960-07-01 70.58
1960-10-01 72.66
1961-01-01 73.34
1961-04-01 73.1
1961-07-01 73.11
1961-10-01 73.13
1962-01-01 72.99
1962-04-01 73.83
1962-07-01 74.74
1962-10-01 76.11
1963-01-01 76.79
1963-04-01 77.42
1963-07-01 77.75
1963-10-01 78.6
1964-01-01 78.68
1964-04-01 79.36
1964-07-01 79.97
1964-10-01 81.35
1965-01-01 81.32
1965-04-01 81.7
1965-07-01 81.87
1965-10-01 81.27
1966-01-01 81.16
1966-04-01 82.17
1966-07-01 82.49
1966-10-01 82.32
1967-01-01 82.9
1967-04-01 83.81
1967-07-01 84.08
1967-10-01 84.45
1968-01-01 83.65
1968-04-01 83.18
1968-07-01 83.85
1968-10-01 84.51
1969-01-01 84.43
1969-04-01 85.2
1969-07-01 85.61
1969-10-01 86.69
1970-01-01 87.4
1970-04-01 87.54
1970-07-01 87.82
1970-10-01 89.06
1971-01-01 87.54
1971-04-01 87.85
1971-07-01 88.55
1971-10-01 89.58
1972-01-01 89.31
1972-04-01 89.06
1972-07-01 89.82
1972-10-01 90.01
1973-01-01 90.41
1973-04-01 90.86
1973-07-01 92.69
1973-10-01 92.25
1974-01-01 94.14
1974-04-01 94.48
1974-07-01 95.26
1974-10-01 94.71
1975-01-01 95.17
1975-04-01 94.18
1975-07-01 92.51
1975-10-01 91.41
1976-01-01 90.6
1976-04-01 90.85
1976-07-01 91.36
1976-10-01 91.47
1977-01-01 92.07
1977-04-01 91.83
1977-07-01 92.09
1977-10-01 93.27
1978-01-01 95.13
1978-04-01 93.13
1978-07-01 93.79
1978-10-01 93.84
1979-01-01 95.55
1979-04-01 96.4
1979-07-01 96.96
1979-10-01 97.63
1980-01-01 98.1
1980-04-01 99.32
1980-07-01 99.24
1980-10-01 97.41
1981-01-01 95.21
1981-04-01 97.08
1981-07-01 96.67
1981-10-01 98.17
1982-01-01 100.95
1982-04-01 101.2
1982-07-01 102.05
1982-10-01 102.19
1983-01-01 101.95
1983-04-01 101.18
1983-07-01 100.92
1983-10-01 101.01
1984-01-01 101.35
1984-04-01 102.36
1984-07-01 103.67
1984-10-01 105.79
1985-01-01 107.24
1985-04-01 108.77
1985-07-01 109.76
1985-10-01 112
1986-01-01 113.16
1986-04-01 114.92
1986-07-01 116.55
1986-10-01 118.69
1987-01-01 119.05
1987-04-01 119.88
1987-07-01 120.66
1987-10-01 120.42
1988-01-01 121.73
1988-04-01 121.95
1988-07-01 122.83
1988-10-01 123
1989-01-01 122.69
1989-04-01 123.07
1989-07-01 123.2
1989-10-01 124.5
1990-01-01 123.73
1990-04-01 123.48
1990-07-01 123.86
1990-10-01 125.06
1991-01-01 124.85
1991-04-01 124.06
1991-07-01 122.62
1991-10-01 121.64
1992-01-01 120.55
1992-04-01 118.96
1992-07-01 118.01
1992-10-01 117.08
1993-01-01 116.46
1993-04-01 116.12
1993-07-01 116.21
1993-10-01 115.19
1994-01-01 114.91
1994-04-01 114.36
1994-07-01 114.64
1994-10-01 114.71
1995-01-01 115.89
1995-04-01 117.37
1995-07-01 117.85
1995-10-01 118.11
1996-01-01 118.96
1996-04-01 118.57
1996-07-01 119.03
1996-10-01 118.62
1997-01-01 118.91
1997-04-01 119.03
1997-07-01 119.53
1997-10-01 120.57
1998-01-01 122.05
1998-04-01 123.81
1998-07-01 124.3
1998-10-01 124.58
1999-01-01 126.31
1999-04-01 127.44
1999-07-01 128.52
1999-10-01 128.24
2000-01-01 130
2000-04-01 130.09
2000-07-01 131.68
2000-10-01 132.91
2001-01-01 135.06
2001-04-01 136.16
2001-07-01 138.6
2001-10-01 139.91
2002-01-01 140.83
2002-04-01 141.67
2002-07-01 142.43
2002-10-01 144.24
2003-01-01 145.3
2003-04-01 146.82
2003-07-01 146.14
2003-10-01 146.25
2004-01-01 146.9
2004-04-01 147.75
2004-07-01 148.5
2004-10-01 149.89
2005-01-01 150.32
2005-04-01 152.46
2005-07-01 153.35
2005-10-01 155.24
2006-01-01 156.46
2006-04-01 158.76
2006-07-01 160.68
2006-10-01 162.56
2007-01-01 164.02
2007-04-01 165.46
2007-07-01 167.58
2007-10-01 169.42
2008-01-01 171.42
2008-04-01 171.01
2008-07-01 171.69
2008-10-01 174.92
2009-01-01 176.44
2009-04-01 175.71
2009-07-01 173.31
2009-10-01 170.12
2010-01-01 167.7
2010-04-01 165.59
2010-07-01 163.68
2010-10-01 162.82
Return to Figure 1a

Fig. 1b: Credit-to-GDP Ratios: Selected vintages

  95q2 98q4 02q2 05q4 09q2 10q4
1954-01-01 52.14 50.52 50.83 50.93 51.01 51.01
1954-04-01 53.05 51.53 51.79 51.89 51.98 51.98
1954-07-01 53.85 52.24 52.41 52.51 52.59 52.59
1954-10-01 53.97 52.53 52.53 52.62 52.71 52.71
1955-01-01 54.02 52.38 52.6 52.68 52.77 52.77
1955-04-01 55.13 53.64 53.71 53.78 53.88 53.88
1955-07-01 56.08 54.52 54.65 54.7 54.81 54.81
1955-10-01 57.27 55.81 55.81 55.87 55.96 55.96
1956-01-01 58.76 56.99 57.3 57.37 57.46 57.46
1956-04-01 59.72 58.1 58.2 58.27 58.38 58.38
1956-07-01 60.6 58.89 59.02 59.08 59.18 59.18
1956-10-01 60.8 59.22 59.2 59.28 59.37 59.37
1957-01-01 61.24 59.42 59.64 59.7 59.8 59.8
1957-04-01 62.55 60.87 60.88 60.94 61.04 61.04
1957-07-01 62.87 61.13 61.2 61.26 61.35 61.35
1957-10-01 64.59 62.88 62.82 62.9 62.98 62.98
1958-01-01 66.57 64.61 64.78 64.88 64.99 64.99
1958-04-01 66.72 64.93 64.92 65.05 65.14 65.14
1958-07-01 66.11 64.3 64.34 64.45 64.51 64.51
1958-10-01 66.03 64.33 64.25 64.37 64.44 64.44
1959-01-01 66.08 64.27 64.51 64.62 64.69 64.69
1959-04-01 66.47 64.8 64.88 64.99 65.06 65.06
1959-07-01 68.39 66.59 66.61 66.72 66.82 66.82
1959-10-01 69.62 67.87 67.82 67.95 68.04 68.04
1960-01-01 69.35 67.51 67.66 67.79 67.89 67.89
1960-04-01 71.23 69.48 69.42 69.55 69.64 69.64
1960-07-01 72.22 70.39 70.36 70.49 70.58 70.58
1960-10-01 74.34 72.53 72.44 72.58 72.66 72.66
1961-01-01 74.92 72.99 73.1 73.24 73.34 73.34
1961-04-01 74.72 72.95 72.87 72.99 73.1 73.1
1961-07-01 74.69 72.89 72.89 73.01 73.11 73.11
1961-10-01 74.69 73 72.9 73.02 73.13 73.13
1962-01-01 74.59 72.78 72.77 72.87 72.99 72.99
1962-04-01 75.42 73.72 73.62 73.71 73.83 73.83
1962-07-01 76.34 74.54 74.48 74.61 74.74 74.74
1962-10-01 77.79 76.02 75.83 75.98 76.11 76.11
1963-01-01 78.41 76.5 76.52 76.65 76.79 76.79
1963-04-01 79.09 77.28 77.16 77.27 77.42 77.42
1963-07-01 79.39 77.55 77.47 77.6 77.75 77.75
1963-10-01 80.3 78.52 78.34 78.44 78.6 78.6
1964-01-01 80.25 78.38 78.42 78.53 78.68 78.68
1964-04-01 81.03 79.25 79.13 79.23 79.36 79.36
1964-07-01 81.76 79.91 79.74 79.83 79.97 79.97
1964-10-01 83.09 81.26 81.12 81.21 81.35 81.35
1965-01-01 82.95 81.01 81.07 81.17 81.32 81.32
1965-04-01 83.39 81.52 81.45 81.56 81.7 81.7
1965-07-01 83.62 81.7 81.62 81.74 81.87 81.87
1965-10-01 82.93 81.12 81.01 81.15 81.27 81.27
1966-01-01 82.8 80.89 80.85 81.02 81.16 81.16
1966-04-01 83.85 82 81.87 82.04 82.17 82.17
1966-07-01 84.2 82.27 82.2 82.35 82.49 82.49
1966-10-01 84.05 82.19 82.03 82.2 82.32 82.32
1967-01-01 84.76 82.67 82.63 82.79 82.9 82.9
1967-04-01 85.53 83.57 83.55 83.69 83.81 83.81
1967-07-01 85.6 83.74 83.8 83.97 84.08 84.08
1967-10-01 86.03 84.15 84.41 84.59 84.45 84.45
1968-01-01 85.41 83.36 83.41 83.57 83.65 83.65
1968-04-01 84.91 82.98 82.96 83.1 83.18 83.18
1968-07-01 85.48 83.66 83.64 83.78 83.85 83.85
1968-10-01 86.44 84.39 84.3 84.44 84.51 84.51
1969-01-01 86.35 84.29 84.28 84.37 84.43 84.43
1969-04-01 87.25 85.26 85.08 85.13 85.2 85.2
1969-07-01 87.75 85.76 85.5 85.56 85.61 85.61
1969-10-01 88.84 86.96 86.59 86.64 86.69 86.69
1970-01-01 89.77 87.65 87.31 87.38 87.4 87.4
1970-04-01 90.03 87.86 87.45 87.53 87.54 87.54
1970-07-01 90.11 88.01 87.72 87.8 87.82 87.82
1970-10-01 91.27 89.19 88.95 89.04 89.06 89.06
1971-01-01 89.83 87.61 87.41 87.52 87.54 87.54
1971-04-01 90.27 87.96 87.74 87.82 87.85 87.85
1971-07-01 90.96 88.69 88.45 88.53 88.55 88.55
1971-10-01 91.85 89.73 89.47 89.55 89.58 89.58
1972-01-01 91.54 89.32 89.16 89.27 89.31 89.31
1972-04-01 91.48 89.19 88.96 89.04 89.06 89.06
1972-07-01 92.08 89.92 89.66 89.79 89.82 89.82
1972-10-01 92.09 90.05 89.85 90.01 90.04 90.01
1973-01-01 92.55 90.25 90.25 90.42 90.45 90.41
1973-04-01 93.36 91.03 90.72 90.86 90.89 90.86
1973-07-01 94.87 92.66 92.52 92.68 92.72 92.69
1973-10-01 94.24 92.28 92.08 92.24 92.28 92.25
1974-01-01 96.45 94.09 93.97 94.13 94.17 94.14
1974-04-01 97.11 94.65 94.37 94.48 94.51 94.48
1974-07-01 97.77 95.43 95.25 95.25 95.29 95.26
1974-10-01 97.69 95.12 94.83 94.69 94.73 94.71
1975-01-01 98.65 95.71 95.4 95.15 95.19 95.17
1975-04-01 97.41 94.67 94.38 94.16 94.2 94.18
1975-07-01 95.33 92.9 92.74 92.5 92.54 92.51
1975-10-01 94.2 91.84 91.67 91.4 91.44 91.41
1976-01-01 93.42 90.81 90.76 90.59 90.62 90.6
1976-04-01 93.9 91.23 90.98 90.83 90.87 90.85
1976-07-01 94.45 91.84 91.47 91.35 91.38 91.36
1976-10-01 94.27 91.75 91.51 91.45 91.49 91.47
1977-01-01 94.92 92.28 92.15 92.05 92.09 92.07
1977-04-01 94.36 91.86 91.86 91.81 91.85 91.83
1977-07-01 94.52 92.25 92.09 92.08 92.11 92.09
1977-10-01 96.29 93.61 93.27 93.25 93.29 93.27
1978-01-01 97.92 95.19 95.22 95.11 95.15 95.13
1978-04-01 95.77 93.17 93.16 93.11 93.15 93.13
1978-07-01 96.35 93.87 93.73 93.77 93.81 93.79
1978-10-01 96.47 94.14 93.84 93.82 93.86 93.84
1979-01-01 98.16 95.51 95.39 95.53 95.57 95.55
1979-04-01 99.3 96.54 96.38 96.37 96.42 96.4
1979-07-01 99.92 97.25 96.96 96.94 96.97 96.96
1979-10-01 100.57 98.04 97.55 97.61 97.65 97.63
1980-01-01 100.81 98.15 97.9 98.07 98.11 98.1
1980-04-01 102.49 99.65 99.08 99.28 99.33 99.32
1980-07-01 102.17 99.34 99.03 99.21 99.26 99.24
1980-10-01 100.28 97.62 97.39 97.37 97.42 97.41
1981-01-01 98.29 95.58 95.27 95.18 95.22 95.21
1981-04-01 99.85 97.56 97.11 97.04 97.09 97.08
1981-07-01 99.39 97.01 96.57 96.63 96.69 96.67
1981-10-01 100.82 98.55 98.01 98.13 98.18 98.17
1982-01-01 103.08 100.86 100.39 100.53 100.58 100.95
1982-04-01 103.3 101.21 100.67 100.79 100.84 101.2
1982-07-01 104.6 102.26 101.65 101.64 101.69 102.05
1982-10-01 104.88 102.34 101.83 101.78 101.84 102.19
1983-01-01 104.93 102.33 101.77 101.55 101.6 101.95
1983-04-01 103.71 101.34 100.73 100.8 100.85 101.18
1983-07-01 104 101.37 100.82 100.54 100.6 100.92
1983-10-01 104.12 101.44 100.78 100.63 100.7 101.01
1984-01-01 104.43 101.64 100.98 100.98 101.04 101.35
1984-04-01 105.65 102.9 102.07 102 102.06 102.36
1984-07-01 107.01 104.34 103.5 103.32 103.38 103.67
1984-10-01 109.28 106.56 105.59 105.44 105.5 105.79
1985-01-01 111.02 107.91 107.18 106.89 106.95 107.24
1985-04-01 112.61 109.59 108.65 108.41 108.49 108.77
1985-07-01 113.67 110.46 109.6 109.38 109.48 109.76
1985-10-01 116.06 112.78 111.88 111.75 111.73 112
1986-01-01 117.08 113.68 113.23 112.94 112.89 113.16
1986-04-01 119.85 115.77 115 114.71 114.66 114.92
1986-07-01 121.71 117.65 116.6 116.33 116.29 116.55
1986-10-01 124.26 119.64 118.74 118.46 118.43 118.69
1987-01-01 125.02 120.06 118.88 118.83 118.8 119.05
1987-04-01 125.71 120.77 119.51 119.66 119.63 119.88
1987-07-01 126.47 121.56 120.37 120.44 120.42 120.66
1987-10-01 126.04 121.38 120.05 120.14 120.11 120.42
1988-01-01 127.25 122.75 121.32 121.44 121.43 121.73
1988-04-01 127.26 123.15 121.58 121.67 121.66 121.95
1988-07-01 128.08 123.73 122.42 122.54 122.54 122.83
1988-10-01 128.23 123.85 122.68 122.75 122.72 123
1989-01-01 128.07 123.74 122.09 122.35 122.41 122.69
1989-04-01 128.79 123.92 122.75 122.9 122.8 123.07
1989-07-01 129.93 124.11 123.17 123.05 122.93 123.2
1989-10-01 130.66 125.26 124.23 124.27 124.23 124.5
1990-01-01 129.81 124.68 123.35 123.39 123.47 123.73
1990-04-01 129.67 124.31 123.31 123.3 123.22 123.48
1990-07-01 130.17 125.16 123.83 123.68 123.6 123.86
1990-10-01 130.87 126.22 124.93 124.83 124.8 125.06
1991-01-01 130.97 125.91 124.61 124.52 124.6 124.85
1991-04-01 130.27 125.42 124.02 123.85 123.81 124.06
1991-07-01 129.13 124.25 122.91 122.43 122.37 122.62
1991-10-01 128.76 123.31 121.8 121.43 121.4 121.64
1992-01-01 127.64 121.87 120.61 120.29 120.31 120.55
1992-04-01 126.57 120.71 119.27 118.9 118.72 118.96
1992-07-01 126.01 120.09 118.77 118.01 117.77 118.01
1992-10-01 124.47 119 117.51 117.11 116.85 117.08
1993-01-01 123.75 118.33 116.88 116.35 116.23 116.46
1993-04-01 123.63 118.21 116.64 116.18 115.89 116.12
1993-07-01 124.01 118.27 116.86 116.33 115.99 116.21
1993-10-01 123.15 117.25 115.66 115.34 114.97 115.19
1994-01-01 123.03 117.28 115.57 114.92 114.69 114.91
1994-04-01 122.6 116.85 115.02 114.49 114.15 114.36
1994-07-01 122.7 117.29 115.39 114.85 114.43 114.64
1994-10-01 122.78 117.37 115.15 114.8 114.5 114.71
1995-01-01 123.62 118.28 115.96 115.88 115.69 115.89
1995-04-01 125.02 119.91 117.56 117.48 117.17 117.37
1995-07-01 ND 120.36 118.18 118.01 117.65 117.85
1995-10-01 ND 120.93 118.53 118.32 117.92 118.11
1996-01-01 ND 121.25 118.99 118.84 118.76 118.96
1996-04-01 ND 121.16 118.79 118.57 118.38 118.57
1996-07-01 ND 121.99 119.6 119.09 118.84 119.03
1996-10-01 ND 121.77 119.27 118.54 118.43 118.62
1997-01-01 ND 121.47 119.1 118.83 118.73 118.91
1997-04-01 ND 121.74 118.93 118.83 118.85 119.03
1997-07-01 ND 122.35 119.68 119.15 119.35 119.53
1997-10-01 ND 123.31 120.83 120.18 120.4 120.57
1998-01-01 ND 123.91 121.6 121.41 121.88 122.05
1998-04-01 ND 125.8 123.65 123.55 123.64 123.81
1998-07-01 ND 127.05 124.67 124.22 124.13 124.3
1998-10-01 ND 127.88 125.32 124.95 124.42 124.58
1999-01-01 ND ND 127.11 126.74 126.15 126.31
1999-04-01 ND ND 128.62 127.77 127.28 127.44
1999-07-01 ND ND 129.85 128.97 128.37 128.52
1999-10-01 ND ND 129.74 128.66 128.09 128.24
2000-01-01 ND ND 130.79 130.18 129.76 130
2000-04-01 ND ND 131.98 130.9 129.95 130.09
2000-07-01 ND ND 133.75 132.69 131.46 131.68
2000-10-01 ND ND 135.38 134.15 132.78 132.91
2001-01-01 ND ND 136.57 135.65 134.87 135.06
2001-04-01 ND ND 139.1 137 136.02 136.16
2001-07-01 ND ND 140.94 139.18 138.43 138.6
2001-10-01 ND ND 142.67 140.31 139.8 139.91
2002-01-01 ND ND 142.48 141.1 140.69 140.83
2002-04-01 ND ND 143.79 141.82 141.54 141.67
2002-07-01 ND ND ND 142.37 142.19 142.43
2002-10-01 ND ND ND 144.14 144.09 144.24
2003-01-01 ND ND ND 145.13 145.01 145.3
2003-04-01 ND ND ND 146.55 146.56 146.82
2003-07-01 ND ND ND 145.92 145.85 146.14
2003-10-01 ND ND ND 145.97 146 146.25
2004-01-01 ND ND ND 146.16 146.72 146.9
2004-04-01 ND ND ND 146.31 147.51 147.75
2004-07-01 ND ND ND 147.64 148.31 148.5
2004-10-01 ND ND ND 148.84 149.76 149.89
2005-01-01 ND ND ND 149.44 149.99 150.32
2005-04-01 ND ND ND 151.08 152.08 152.46
2005-07-01 ND ND ND 152.21 153.15 153.35
2005-10-01 ND ND ND 154.04 155.15 155.24
2006-01-01 ND ND ND ND 156.16 156.46
2006-04-01 ND ND ND ND 158.42 158.76
2006-07-01 ND ND ND ND 160.44 160.68
2006-10-01 ND ND ND ND 162.39 162.56
2007-01-01 ND ND ND ND 163.69 164.02
2007-04-01 ND ND ND ND 165.32 165.46
2007-07-01 ND ND ND ND 167.11 167.58
2007-10-01 ND ND ND ND 168.92 169.42
2008-01-01 ND ND ND ND 170.64 171.42
2008-04-01 ND ND ND ND 170.45 171.01
2008-07-01 ND ND ND ND 170.73 171.69
2008-10-01 ND ND ND ND 173.04 174.92
2009-01-01 ND ND ND ND 174.8 176.44
2009-04-01 ND ND ND ND 174.36 175.71
2009-07-01 ND ND ND ND ND 173.31
2009-10-01 ND ND ND ND ND 170.12
2010-01-01 ND ND ND ND ND 167.7
2010-04-01 ND ND ND ND ND 165.59
2010-07-01 ND ND ND ND ND 163.68
2010-10-01 ND ND ND ND ND 162.82
Return to Figure 1b

Fig. 2a: Credit-to-GDP Ratio Gaps: True real-time gaps

  Linear Quadratic Cubic Cubic Spline HP:1600 HP:25000 HP:125000 HP:400000 BK:30 BK:60 BK:90
1995:02 -6.55 -5.5 -8.81 5.16 2.49 -3.18 -6.1 -6.53 0.1 -3.47 -5.27
1995:03 -3.59 -5.24 -5.25 5.76 2.75 -1.62 -4.21 -4.61 1.04 -1.76 -3.51
1995:04 -2.53 -4.06 -3.89 7.01 3.45 -0.31 -2.94 -3.43 1.09 -1.31 -3.24
1996:01 -2.08 -3.55 -3.26 7.45 3.34 0.26 -2.36 -2.91 1.27 -0.61 -2.66
1996:02 -2.42 -3.75 -3.27 7.16 2.75 0.17 -2.48 -3.12 1.21 -0.15 -2.32
1996:03 -1.91 -3.17 -2.6 7.57 2.77 0.76 -1.84 -2.53 0.86 -0.08 -2.34
1996:04 -2.27 -3.46 -2.75 7.22 2.07 0.53 -2.05 -2.8 0.77 0.35 -2
1997:01 -4.3 -2.3 -5.03 6.56 1.17 0.01 -2.55 -3.32 0.56 0.59 -1.81
1997:02 -6.38 -3.6 -5.61 6.4 0.74 -0.58 -3.48 -4.58 -0.2 -0.06 -2.7
1997:03 -6.27 -3.36 -5.15 6.76 0.79 -0.19 -3.08 -4.28 -0.46 0.01 -2.72
1997:04 -5.57 -2.08 -3.24 8.23 1.72 1.45 -1.48 -2.91 -0.39 0.43 -2.46
1998:01 -5.88 -2.09 -2.88 8.52 1.71 1.73 -1.26 -2.84 -0.25 0.82 -2.15
1998:02 -3.69 0 -0.91 9.8 2.86 3.49 0.77 -0.74 -0.22 1.07 -1.83
1998:03 -2.58 1.13 0.2 10.28 3.17 4.38 1.88 0.41 0.19 1.75 -1.06
1998:04 -2.73 1.04 0.15 9.77 2.61 4.15 1.81 0.34 0.5 2.34 -0.37
1999:01 -2.49 1.42 0.65 9.82 2.62 4.47 2.25 0.75 0.5 2.44 -0.21
1999:02 1.37 4.7 3.23 10.74 3.36 6.52 5.06 3.94 0.62 3.07 0.8
1999:03 1.71 3.06 5.2 9.77 2.97 6.22 4.78 3.46 0.84 3.36 1.14
1999:04 0.96 2.39 4.55 8.58 1.88 5.38 4.11 2.8 1.13 3.9 1.82
2000:01 -0.05 3.97 2.62 8.28 1.11 5.06 4.2 3.13 0.91 3.91 2.13
2000:02 0.02 4.15 2.83 7.99 1.04 5.06 4.35 3.31 0.4 3.31 1.68
2000:03 0.67 4.71 3.26 7.67 1.02 5.22 4.79 3.85 0.16 3.08 1.68
2000:04 2.07 5.99 4.34 8.1 1.57 6 5.89 5.08 0.14 2.99 1.85
2001:01 1.68 5.63 3.97 7.26 1.1 5.44 5.48 4.72 0.58 3.36 2.45
2001:02 4.39 7.92 5.72 7.61 1.7 6.71 7.33 6.88 0.63 3.48 2.98
2001:03 6.27 9.51 6.93 7.98 2.2 7.54 8.59 8.37 0.68 3.46 3.31
2001:04 7.51 10.53 7.64 7.8 2.36 7.92 9.33 9.31 0.93 3.67 3.86
2002:01 6.13 9.05 6 5.5 0.6 6.06 7.68 7.77 1.59 4.5 5.05
2002:02 8.55 10.97 7.3 5.64 0.77 6.84 9.07 9.51 1.14 4.18 5.15
2002:03 8.38 10.57 6.63 4.28 -0.05 5.91 8.41 9.02 0.86 3.87 5.17
2002:04 9.5 11.38 7.08 3.89 0.19 6.09 8.88 9.71 0.42 3.24 4.86
2003:01 10.37 11.94 7.27 3.53 0.15 6 9.1 10.14 0.41 3.11 5.06
2003:02 11.33 12.6 7.61 3.23 0.45 6.12 9.46 10.69 0.39 2.86 5.1
2003:03 9.37 10.42 5.14 0.38 -1.45 3.6 7.03 8.39 0.94 3.35 5.93
2003:04 8.92 9.73 4.21 -0.75 -2.07 2.55 6.1 7.6 0.35 2.54 5.39
2004:01 8.31 9.2 3.71 -1.5 -2.21 1.94 5.5 7.03 -0.45 1.42 4.44
2004:02 7.31 8.05 2.48 -2.84 -2.64 0.77 4.26 5.84 -0.71 0.75 3.95
2004:03 7.49 8.04 2.3 -3.02 -2.32 0.58 4.08 5.75 -0.94 0.11 3.46
2004:04 8.81 9.16 3.21 -2.44 -1.22 1.41 4.99 6.77 -0.59 0.06 3.56
2005:01 9.02 9.15 3.01 -2.99 -1.16 1.16 4.78 6.67 -0.2 0.24 3.88
2005:02 9.61 9.42 3.02 -3.03 -0.82 1.16 4.82 6.83 -0.34 -0.19 3.56
2005:03 9.88 9.73 3.32 -2.91 -0.32 1.42 5.05 7.08 -0.12 -0.25 3.55
2005:04 11.36 10.92 4.25 -2.34 0.65 2.3 5.99 8.16 -0.05 -0.47 3.38
2006:01 11.86 11.08 4.11 -2.61 0.58 2.12 5.89 8.19 0.42 -0.09 3.82
2006:02 13.44 11.76 3.94 -3.7 0 1.68 5.84 8.54 0.54 0.17 4.32
2006:03 14.29 12.3 4.21 -3.7 0.38 1.95 6.13 8.94 0.46 -0.11 4
2006:04 15.01 12.74 4.45 -3.4 0.84 2.24 6.38 9.28 0.42 -0.34 3.69
2007:01 15.6 13.02 4.44 -3.58 0.86 2.24 6.41 9.41 0.78 0.04 4.01
2007:02 17.2 14.01 5.04 -3.58 1.06 2.65 6.98 10.21 1.29 0.66 4.63
2007:03 18.3 14.77 5.33 -3.42 1.15 2.92 7.36 10.74 1.19 0.61 4.52
2007:04 19.53 15.55 5.83 -2.93 1.63 3.51 7.93 11.4 0.78 0.18 3.88
2008:01 19.92 15.53 5.49 -3.53 1.15 3.14 7.61 11.22 1.18 0.85 4.48
2008:02 21.41 15.8 4.71 -5.04 -0.38 2.1 7 11.04 1.66 2.09 5.86
2008:03 19.25 13.3 2.02 -7.58 -2.49 -0.42 4.35 8.43 1.14 1.88 5.53
2008:04 20.96 14.65 3.16 -6.35 -0.89 0.88 5.53 9.66 -0.41 -0.16 3.18
2009:01 21.56 14.82 3.01 -6.46 -0.92 0.8 5.43 9.66 -0.31 0.08 3.27
2009:02 20.97 15.02 3.51 -6.53 -1.23 0.84 5.58 9.78 0.65 1.44 4.62
2009:03 17.78 11.59 0.06 -9.83 -3.89 -2.41 2.12 6.3 0.74 1.93 5.01
2009:04 13.55 7.13 -4.41 -13.6 -6.88 -6.42 -2.26 1.83 -0.03 1.31 4.19
2010:01 10.39 3.82 -7.62 -15.99 -8.32 -9.05 -5.37 -1.43 -1.96 -0.91 1.66
2010:02 9.28 2.33 -9.31 -17.32 -8.95 -10.41 -6.96 -3.03 -3.1 -2.16 0.2
2010:03 6.68 -0.32 -11.74 -18.68 -9.32 -12.11 -9.27 -5.57 -3.5 -2.95 -0.92
2010:04 5.16 -1.84 -12.97 -18.74 -8.47 -12.55 -10.35 -6.93 -3.86 -4.18 -2.65
Return to Figure 2a

Fig. 2b: Credit-to-GDP Ratio Gaps: True final gaps

  Linear Quadratic Cubic Cubic Spline HP:1600 HP:25000 HP:125000 HP:400000 BK:30 BK:60 BK:90
1980:01 -3.92 -0.45 -1.86 -1.61 1.8 -0.11 -1.43 -1.59 2.39 2.89 -0.63
1980:02 -3.16 0.33 -0.94 -0.79 2.67 0.67 -0.6 -0.74 2.15 2.43 -0.99
1980:03 -3.68 -0.18 -1.3 -1.26 2.25 0.15 -1.05 -1.17 1.18 1.19 -2.09
1980:04 -5.97 -2.46 -3.43 -3.49 0.04 -2.15 -3.28 -3.38 -0.19 -0.47 -3.6
1981:01 -8.62 -5.1 -5.93 -6.09 -2.55 -4.83 -5.88 -5.95 -1.38 -1.97 -4.92
1981:02 -7.2 -3.67 -4.35 -4.61 -1.09 -3.44 -4.4 -4.45 -1.86 -2.8 -5.53
1981:03 -8.06 -4.52 -5.05 -5.42 -1.95 -4.35 -5.21 -5.23 -1.44 -2.75 -5.23
1981:04 -7.01 -3.47 -3.85 -4.32 -0.92 -3.37 -4.12 -4.11 -0.32 -2.03 -4.23
1982:01 -4.69 -1.14 -1.37 -1.95 1.35 -1.12 -1.75 -1.71 0.98 -1.12 -3.02
1982:02 -4.89 -1.34 -1.42 -2.1 1.06 -1.41 -1.92 -1.84 1.95 -0.55 -2.11
1982:03 -4.49 -0.95 -0.87 -1.66 1.33 -1.11 -1.48 -1.38 2.23 -0.62 -1.84
1982:04 -4.81 -1.26 -1.03 -1.92 0.87 -1.53 -1.76 -1.62 1.81 -1.39 -2.24
1983:01 -5.5 -1.96 -1.58 -2.57 -0.03 -2.34 -2.43 -2.25 0.86 -2.63 -3.09
1983:02 -6.72 -3.18 -2.65 -3.73 -1.49 -3.69 -3.61 -3.4 -0.29 -4.02 -4.09
1983:03 -7.43 -3.9 -3.22 -4.4 -2.49 -4.53 -4.3 -4.05 -1.36 -5.25 -4.92
1983:04 -7.79 -4.27 -3.45 -4.72 -3.19 -5.04 -4.64 -4.35 -2.11 -6.1 -5.36
1984:01 -7.91 -4.4 -3.42 -4.79 -3.69 -5.3 -4.73 -4.4 -2.41 -6.41 -5.27
1984:02 -7.35 -3.85 -2.73 -4.18 -3.57 -4.89 -4.14 -3.78 -2.24 -6.19 -4.64
1984:03 -6.49 -3 -1.73 -3.27 -3.2 -4.18 -3.26 -2.86 -1.75 -5.54 -3.6
1984:04 -4.83 -1.36 0.06 -1.57 -2.07 -2.67 -1.57 -1.15 -1.12 -4.7 -2.35
1985:01 -3.83 -0.37 1.18 -0.52 -1.63 -1.83 -0.55 -0.09 -0.59 -3.85 -1.13
1985:02 -2.75 0.69 2.39 0.6 -1.14 -0.89 0.56 1.04 -0.23 -3.12 -0.01
1985:03 -2.21 1.21 3.05 1.19 -1.21 -0.5 1.12 1.63 0 -2.45 1.04
1985:04 -0.42 2.97 4.96 3.02 -0.02 1.16 2.94 3.48 0.25 -1.71 2.14
1986:01 0.28 3.66 5.78 3.78 0.08 1.75 3.68 4.23 0.63 -0.79 3.41
1986:02 1.6 4.95 7.21 5.14 0.81 2.95 5.03 5.6 1.14 0.28 4.82
1986:03 2.77 6.09 8.49 6.37 1.43 4.04 6.25 6.83 1.61 1.33 6.19
1986:04 4.46 7.75 10.28 8.1 2.59 5.65 7.98 8.56 1.84 2.15 7.31
1987:01 4.36 7.63 10.29 8.06 2.03 5.5 7.94 8.52 1.71 2.59 8.04
1987:02 4.74 7.98 10.77 8.49 2 5.84 8.38 8.95 1.25 2.69 8.41
1987:03 5.07 8.27 11.19 8.88 1.98 6.16 8.77 9.33 0.66 2.63 8.58
1987:04 4.38 7.54 10.59 8.23 1 5.47 8.14 8.69 0.15 2.6 8.75
1988:01 5.24 8.37 11.54 9.15 1.66 6.37 9.07 9.6 -0.19 2.68 9.02
1988:02 5 8.1 11.38 8.97 1.29 6.19 8.92 9.42 -0.4 2.83 9.32
1988:03 5.44 8.49 11.89 9.46 1.67 6.71 9.43 9.9 -0.57 2.94 9.55
1988:04 5.15 8.16 11.68 9.24 1.42 6.53 9.24 9.66 -0.77 2.93 9.63
1989:01 4.39 7.36 10.99 8.54 0.77 5.91 8.57 8.95 -0.99 2.83 9.58
1989:02 4.32 7.24 10.98 8.53 0.9 6 8.6 8.92 -1.16 2.68 9.46
1989:03 3.99 6.87 10.71 8.27 0.85 5.86 8.38 8.64 -1.23 2.58 9.32
1989:04 4.84 7.68 11.62 9.19 2.06 6.93 9.34 9.54 -1.14 2.57 9.21
1990:01 3.62 6.4 10.44 8.04 1.28 5.94 8.23 8.37 -0.87 2.68 9.16
1990:02 2.91 5.65 9.78 7.4 1.09 5.49 7.65 7.7 -0.43 2.91 9.17
1990:03 2.84 5.52 9.75 7.4 1.61 5.7 7.69 7.67 0.13 3.19 9.19
1990:04 3.59 6.21 10.53 8.23 3.02 6.74 8.56 8.46 0.68 3.4 9.08
1991:01 2.93 5.5 9.9 7.64 3.08 6.4 8.03 7.84 1.07 3.39 8.71
1991:02 1.69 4.2 8.68 6.48 2.61 5.48 6.91 6.63 1.16 3.03 7.95
1991:03 -0.21 2.24 6.8 4.67 1.54 3.93 5.14 4.76 0.87 2.24 6.73
1991:04 -1.64 0.76 5.38 3.33 0.98 2.85 3.84 3.37 0.26 1.11 5.13
1992:01 -3.19 -0.85 3.84 1.87 0.31 1.66 2.42 1.84 -0.48 -0.17 3.34
1992:02 -5.23 -2.96 1.8 -0.08 -0.83 -0.02 0.5 -0.18 -1.12 -1.36 1.63
1992:03 -6.63 -4.43 0.39 -1.4 -1.34 -1.06 -0.79 -1.57 -1.46 -2.25 0.19
1992:04 -8.01 -5.87 -1.01 -2.69 -1.84 -2.08 -2.06 -2.94 -1.45 -2.77 -0.9
1993:01 -9.08 -7.02 -2.1 -3.67 -2.06 -2.8 -3.03 -4 -1.18 -2.99 -1.71
1993:02 -9.88 -7.88 -2.92 -4.37 -2.03 -3.25 -3.72 -4.8 -0.85 -3.11 -2.42
1993:03 -10.24 -8.31 -3.32 -4.64 -1.6 -3.28 -3.98 -5.16 -0.64 -3.3 -3.21
1993:04 -11.71 -9.86 -4.83 -6.03 -2.35 -4.43 -5.38 -6.65 -0.65 -3.63 -4.14
1994:01 -12.44 -10.67 -5.61 -6.68 -2.41 -4.86 -6.03 -7.4 -0.76 -3.99 -5.11
1994:02 -13.44 -11.74 -6.66 -7.6 -2.8 -5.57 -6.97 -8.42 -0.78 -4.18 -5.89
1994:03 -13.61 -11.99 -6.9 -7.69 -2.43 -5.48 -7.09 -8.63 -0.49 -3.96 -6.25
1994:04 -14 -12.46 -7.35 -8.01 -2.34 -5.62 -7.43 -9.06 0.17 -3.29 -6.15
1995:01 -13.27 -11.81 -6.7 -7.21 -1.2 -4.68 -6.67 -8.38 1.08 -2.3 -5.69
1995:02 -12.24 -10.87 -5.75 -6.12 0.17 -3.46 -5.63 -7.4 1.95 -1.25 -5.16
1995:03 -12.22 -10.93 -5.82 -6.03 0.48 -3.27 -5.6 -7.44 2.56 -0.4 -4.78
1995:04 -12.4 -11.2 -6.11 -6.17 0.5 -3.32 -5.8 -7.7 2.78 0.11 -4.69
1996:01 -12.01 -10.9 -5.82 -5.74 1.05 -2.83 -5.44 -7.39 2.6 0.29 -4.9
1996:02 -12.85 -11.83 -6.77 -6.54 0.3 -3.59 -6.32 -8.32 2.11 0.19 -5.34
1996:03 -12.84 -11.91 -6.89 -6.5 0.34 -3.54 -6.37 -8.41 1.39 -0.09 -5.91
1996:04 -13.71 -12.87 -7.89 -7.35 -0.55 -4.39 -7.31 -9.39 0.54 -0.46 -6.54
1997:01 -13.87 -13.13 -8.19 -7.5 -0.8 -4.57 -7.55 -9.67 -0.29 -0.8 -7.09
1997:02 -14.2 -13.55 -8.66 -7.83 -1.27 -4.96 -7.99 -10.12 -0.93 -0.95 -7.41
1997:03 -14.15 -13.6 -8.77 -7.79 -1.43 -5 -8.06 -10.21 -1.25 -0.78 -7.35
1997:04 -13.57 -13.12 -8.35 -7.23 -1.1 -4.53 -7.62 -9.77 -1.22 -0.29 -6.93
1998:01 -12.53 -12.19 -7.49 -6.23 -0.38 -3.65 -6.74 -8.89 -0.99 0.36 -6.29
1998:02 -11.23 -10.98 -6.37 -4.97 0.57 -2.52 -5.6 -7.75 -0.8 0.95 -5.69
1998:03 -11.19 -11.05 -6.53 -4.99 0.19 -2.71 -5.76 -7.89 -0.77 1.29 -5.26
1998:04 -11.36 -11.33 -6.9 -5.23 -0.43 -3.13 -6.13 -8.24 -0.93 1.39 -5.03
1999:01 -10.09 -10.17 -5.84 -4.04 0.35 -2.13 -5.08 -7.16 -1.11 1.38 -4.86
1999:02 -9.41 -9.6 -5.38 -3.46 0.5 -1.76 -4.64 -6.68 -1.21 1.38 -4.64
1999:03 -8.78 -9.08 -4.97 -2.95 0.57 -1.46 -4.26 -6.25 -1.23 1.38 -4.38
1999:04 -9.52 -9.92 -5.95 -3.81 -0.75 -2.56 -5.26 -7.2 -1.31 1.24 -4.22
2000:01 -8.21 -8.73 -4.88 -2.64 -0.06 -1.64 -4.23 -6.12 -1.54 0.87 -4.24
2000:02 -8.57 -9.21 -5.51 -3.18 -1.08 -2.42 -4.9 -6.72 -1.78 0.41 -4.32
2000:03 -7.43 -8.19 -4.64 -2.21 -0.61 -1.71 -4.07 -5.82 -1.73 0.18 -4.14
2000:04 -6.65 -7.53 -4.13 -1.63 -0.51 -1.39 -3.61 -5.29 -1.15 0.42 -3.46
2001:01 -4.96 -5.96 -2.73 -0.15 0.48 -0.18 -2.26 -3.85 -0.07 1.08 -2.32
2001:02 -4.31 -5.43 -2.38 0.26 0.42 -0.03 -1.96 -3.47 1.12 1.8 -1.08
2001:03 -2.33 -3.57 -0.7 1.99 1.69 1.44 -0.34 -1.76 1.96 2.16 -0.19
2001:04 -1.46 -2.83 -0.15 2.59 1.83 1.77 0.15 -1.17 2.3 2 0.2
2002:01 -1 -2.5 -0.02 2.76 1.58 1.69 0.23 -0.99 2.3 1.52 0.27
2002:02 -0.61 -2.24 0.03 2.83 1.25 1.52 0.22 -0.89 2.33 1.1 0.41
2002:03 -0.3 -2.06 -0.01 2.8 0.85 1.25 0.12 -0.88 2.61 0.97 0.83
2002:04 1.05 -0.84 0.98 3.79 1.49 2.02 1.05 0.17 3 1 1.41
2003:01 1.66 -0.36 1.22 4.02 1.39 2.04 1.24 0.47 3.11 0.82 1.77
2003:02 2.73 0.57 1.9 4.69 1.75 2.5 1.87 1.23 2.66 0.14 1.64
2003:03 1.6 -0.7 0.37 3.13 -0.09 0.76 0.3 -0.22 1.68 -0.98 1.04
2003:04 1.26 -1.18 -0.38 2.33 -1.15 -0.2 -0.5 -0.89 0.51 -2.23 0.31
2004:01 1.46 -1.12 -0.6 2.05 -1.67 -0.62 -0.75 -1.02 -0.49 -3.21 -0.18
2004:02 1.85 -0.87 -0.63 1.94 -2.02 -0.85 -0.82 -0.95 -1.17 -3.77 -0.27
2004:03 2.15 -0.71 -0.77 1.71 -2.47 -1.18 -0.99 -0.99 -1.61 -4.01 -0.08
2004:04 3.09 0.07 -0.29 2.09 -2.3 -0.88 -0.53 -0.4 -2.03 -4.13 0.2
2005:01 3.07 -0.09 -0.78 1.48 -3.1 -1.53 -1.03 -0.76 -2.48 -4.2 0.48
2005:02 4.75 1.44 0.43 2.55 -2.21 -0.49 0.16 0.58 -2.85 -4.11 0.87
2005:03 5.19 1.73 0.38 2.35 -2.56 -0.68 0.12 0.67 -3 -3.74 1.51
2005:04 6.62 3.01 1.31 3.11 -1.93 0.12 1.06 1.75 -2.89 -3.07 2.41
2006:01 7.4 3.63 1.57 3.19 -1.94 0.26 1.33 2.17 -2.64 -2.22 3.42
2006:02 9.24 5.32 2.88 4.3 -0.88 1.48 2.68 3.66 -2.37 -1.35 4.42
2006:03 10.71 6.64 3.82 5.01 -0.15 2.33 3.65 4.78 -2.08 -0.46 5.38
2006:04 12.13 7.9 4.68 5.64 0.55 3.14 4.57 5.84 -1.64 0.55 6.42
2007:01 13.15 8.75 5.13 5.83 0.9 3.54 5.09 6.49 -0.98 1.75 7.59
2007:02 14.13 9.57 5.54 5.96 1.27 3.93 5.57 7.12 -0.18 3.01 8.8
2007:03 15.8 11.07 6.61 6.73 2.38 5 6.73 8.42 0.54 4.12 9.8
2007:04 17.19 12.3 7.4 7.2 3.3 5.81 7.62 9.45 1.05 4.93 10.46
2008:01 18.73 13.68 8.32 7.78 4.45 6.78 8.66 10.63 1.5 5.56 10.91
2008:02 17.88 12.65 6.83 5.94 3.29 5.37 7.31 9.41 2.21 6.35 11.49
2008:03 18.11 12.71 6.41 5.14 3.3 5.04 7.04 9.28 3.38 7.5 12.38
2008:04 20.88 15.32 8.53 6.85 5.95 7.28 9.32 11.69 4.8 8.77 13.36
2009:01 21.95 16.21 8.92 6.82 6.98 7.81 9.89 12.39 5.8 9.52 13.8
2009:02 20.77 14.85 7.06 4.5 5.84 6.11 8.21 10.85 5.69 9.04 12.99
2009:03 17.91 11.82 3.5 0.47 3.11 2.73 4.86 7.63 4.19 7.08 10.66
2009:04 14.27 8 -0.86 -4.38 -0.36 -1.42 0.73 3.63 1.69 4.04 7.25
2010:01 11.4 4.95 -4.46 -8.51 -3.01 -4.8 -2.64 0.4 -0.93 0.81 3.61
2010:02 8.83 2.2 -7.77 -12.37 -5.34 -7.88 -5.7 -2.54 -2.86 -1.78 0.61
2010:03 6.47 -0.35 -10.89 -16.06 -7.44 -10.74 -8.55 -5.26 -3.77 -3.38 -1.41
2010:04 5.16 -1.84 -12.97 -18.74 -8.47 -12.55 -10.35 -6.93 -3.86 -4.18 -2.65
Return to Figure 2b

Fig. 2c: Credit-to-GDP Ratio Gaps: Quasi Real-time gaps

  Linear Quadratic Cubic Cubic Spline HP:1600 HP:25000 HP:125000 HP:400000 BK:30 BK:60 BK:90
1980:01 -3.34 3.5 2.16 1.91 1.61 1.75 0.54 -1.08 1.02 0.46 0.01
1980:02 -2.45 4.32 2.75 2.12 2.01 2.46 1.4 -0.17 0.75 0.34 -0.04
1980:03 -2.83 3.89 2.12 1.28 1.25 1.94 1 -0.53 0.63 0.46 0.13
1980:04 -4.89 1.86 0.04 -0.78 -0.79 -0.12 -1.02 -2.54 0.3 0.39 0.06
1981:01 -7.24 -0.34 -2.07 -2.6 -2.7 -2.29 -3.22 -4.77 -0.52 -0.27 -0.62
1981:02 -5.56 1.4 -0.36 -0.78 -0.9 -0.56 -1.47 -3.03 -1.35 -1.16 -1.47
1981:03 -6.15 0.9 -0.85 -1.15 -1.27 -1.06 -1.97 -3.53 -1.28 -0.99 -1.3
1981:04 -4.87 2.2 0.38 0.03 -0.02 0.2 -0.65 -2.2 -1.13 -0.87 -1.15
1982:01 -2.41 4.59 2.55 1.92 2.01 2.48 1.76 0.28 -0.42 -0.14 -0.33
1982:02 -2.47 4.45 2.22 1.34 1.57 2.23 1.65 0.22 0.45 0.84 0.7
1982:03 -1.95 4.88 2.43 1.27 1.65 2.54 2.09 0.74 0.65 1.11 1.03
1982:04 -2.13 4.61 1.98 0.68 1.12 2.16 1.84 0.55 0.45 0.97 0.95
1983:01 -2.67 4.01 1.23 -0.16 0.36 1.47 1.25 0.02 0 0.56 0.59
1983:02 -3.7 2.97 0.11 -1.22 -0.67 0.38 0.21 -0.98 -0.51 0.06 0.11
1983:03 -4.21 2.47 -0.44 -1.6 -1.07 -0.15 -0.28 -1.45 -0.92 -0.4 -0.32
1983:04 -4.37 2.33 -0.62 -1.63 -1.1 -0.31 -0.42 -1.56 -1.03 -0.59 -0.48
1984:01 -4.27 2.43 -0.56 -1.44 -0.89 -0.23 -0.31 -1.43 -0.91 -0.56 -0.42
1984:02 -3.53 3.16 0.08 -0.72 -0.16 0.45 0.41 -0.66 -0.65 -0.4 -0.22
1984:03 -2.52 4.11 0.91 0.05 0.66 1.32 1.37 0.35 -0.22 -0.06 0.18
1984:04 -0.77 5.73 2.31 1.26 1.94 2.8 2.98 2.06 0.37 0.48 0.79
1985:01 0.29 6.62 2.95 1.65 2.39 3.52 3.86 3.04 1.06 1.19 1.57
1985:02 1.39 7.52 3.56 1.94 2.77 4.22 4.75 4.05 1.56 1.71 2.18
1985:03 1.93 7.85 3.58 1.65 2.57 4.33 5.05 4.48 1.8 2.03 2.59
1985:04 3.67 9.31 4.67 2.37 3.36 5.52 6.48 6.06 1.76 2.05 2.73
1986:01 4.31 9.65 4.64 1.97 3.04 5.58 6.78 6.53 1.96 2.39 3.19
1986:02 5.51 10.52 5.11 2.02 3.21 6.15 7.6 7.53 1.99 2.57 3.5
1986:03 6.55 11.2 5.36 1.92 3.16 6.5 8.22 8.34 2.06 2.82 3.9
1986:04 8.04 12.29 5.99 2.1 3.46 7.22 9.24 9.57 2.08 3.01 4.25
1987:01 7.77 11.63 4.92 0.71 2.2 6.24 8.51 9.04 2.27 3.5 4.88
1987:02 7.96 11.45 4.35 -0.03 1.52 5.74 8.25 8.97 1.83 3.27 4.79
1987:03 8.09 11.21 3.75 -0.76 0.9 5.22 7.95 8.84 1.23 2.85 4.5
1987:04 7.23 10.02 2.26 -2.22 -0.43 3.81 6.69 7.74 0.74 2.55 4.31
1988:01 7.9 10.34 2.3 -2.1 -0.24 3.92 6.95 8.16 0.11 1.97 3.85
1988:02 7.49 9.61 1.31 -2.94 -0.96 3.01 6.15 7.5 -0.03 1.9 3.89
1988:03 7.74 9.54 1.01 -3.07 -0.98 2.78 6.01 7.5 -0.24 1.69 3.78
1988:04 7.27 8.78 0.06 -3.72 -1.55 1.91 5.2 6.81 -0.39 1.51 3.68
1989:01 6.37 7.62 -1.23 -4.61 -2.35 0.7 4 5.7 -0.72 1.1 3.33
1989:02 6.15 7.17 -1.79 -4.72 -2.39 0.23 3.51 5.29 -1.23 0.4 2.68
1989:03 5.69 6.49 -2.53 -4.97 -2.57 -0.42 2.81 4.65 -1.46 -0.05 2.27
1989:04 6.4 6.96 -2.15 -4.15 -1.71 0.06 3.24 5.16 -1.48 -0.35 1.99
1990:01 5.06 5.44 -3.68 -5.09 -2.64 -1.37 1.72 3.67 -1.06 -0.14 2.19
1990:02 4.26 4.49 -4.59 -5.4 -2.92 -2.18 0.77 2.75 -1.13 -0.53 1.76
1990:03 4.1 4.19 -4.85 -5.02 -2.57 -2.32 0.48 2.46 -1.42 -1.19 1.06
1990:04 4.74 4.67 -4.34 -3.93 -1.58 -1.7 0.97 2.97 -1.44 -1.59 0.61
1991:01 4 3.79 -5.16 -4.21 -1.87 -2.4 0.12 2.12 -0.97 -1.4 0.72
1991:02 2.71 2.42 -6.41 -4.75 -2.53 -3.52 -1.21 0.75 -0.66 -1.4 0.62
1991:03 0.81 0.5 -8.12 -5.59 -3.53 -5.09 -3.05 -1.16 -0.74 -1.82 0.07
1991:04 -0.58 -0.86 -9.22 -5.9 -3.86 -6.04 -4.31 -2.51 -1.22 -2.71 -0.97
1992:01 -2.05 -2.27 -10.31 -6.01 -4.15 -6.97 -5.58 -3.91 -1.6 -3.45 -1.9
1992:02 -3.97 -4.05 -11.71 -6.31 -4.68 -8.19 -7.2 -5.69 -1.64 -3.81 -2.46
1992:03 -5.21 -5.13 -12.36 -6.07 -4.48 -8.67 -8.09 -6.76 -1.74 -4.31 -3.19
1992:04 -6.4 -6.11 -12.9 -5.54 -4.21 -9.02 -8.88 -7.73 -1.6 -4.55 -3.68
1993:01 -7.26 -6.75 -13.07 -4.63 -3.65 -9.01 -9.3 -8.36 -1.43 -4.74 -4.14
1993:02 -7.82 -7.08 -12.94 -3.74 -2.9 -8.69 -9.4 -8.67 -1.3 -4.94 -4.61
1993:03 -7.95 -6.97 -12.38 -2.33 -1.89 -7.97 -9.06 -8.54 -1.14 -5.06 -5.03
1993:04 -9.16 -7.92 -12.86 -1.9 -1.93 -8.27 -9.77 -9.46 -0.64 -4.6 -4.85
1994:01 -9.61 -8.1 -12.57 -1.07 -1.32 -7.83 -9.7 -9.61 -0.53 -4.62 -5.17
1994:02 -10.32 -8.52 -12.52 -0.28 -1.02 -7.62 -9.86 -9.99 -0.36 -4.44 -5.3
1994:03 -10.2 -8.12 -11.69 1.2 -0.1 -6.66 -9.22 -9.56 -0.35 -4.46 -5.63
1994:04 -10.29 -7.94 -11.09 2.09 0.47 -5.95 -8.79 -9.33 -0.14 -4.14 -5.6
1995:01 -9.29 -6.7 -9.49 4.02 1.81 -4.28 -7.34 -8.05 -0.06 -3.96 -5.69
1995:02 -8.02 -5.24 -7.75 5.95 3.07 -2.5 -5.7 -6.54 0.3 -3.37 -5.35
1995:03 -7.76 -4.8 -7.05 6.51 3.22 -1.78 -5.08 -6.05 1.01 -2.2 -4.37
1995:04 -7.71 -4.58 -6.59 6.98 3.09 -1.33 -4.7 -5.79 1.32 -1.41 -3.76
1996:01 -7.1 -3.81 -5.62 7.87 3.38 -0.39 -3.8 -4.98 1.13 -1.18 -3.69
1996:02 -7.7 -4.25 -5.84 7.41 2.55 -0.65 -4.09 -5.37 1.12 -0.61 -3.23
1996:03 -7.46 -3.86 -5.26 7.84 2.51 -0.13 -3.56 -4.93 0.68 -0.61 -3.35
1996:04 -8.08 -4.31 -5.5 7.47 1.72 -0.44 -3.88 -5.34 0.53 -0.24 -3.07
1997:01 -8 -4.06 -5.07 7.61 1.62 -0.08 -3.5 -5.04 0.2 -0.16 -3.08
1997:02 -8.08 -3.98 -4.81 7.66 1.37 0.08 -3.3 -4.92 0 0.06 -2.92
1997:03 -7.79 -3.54 -4.21 7.99 1.43 0.57 -2.76 -4.43 -0.2 0.21 -2.82
1997:04 -6.98 -2.61 -3.16 8.62 1.89 1.48 -1.75 -3.46 -0.4 0.31 -2.73
1998:01 -5.76 -1.29 -1.78 9.52 2.56 2.69 -0.39 -2.11 -0.37 0.62 -2.4
1998:02 -4.29 0.22 -0.27 10.42 3.27 3.99 1.13 -0.58 -0.1 1.19 -1.78
1998:03 -4.1 0.45 -0.05 10.03 2.74 4 1.35 -0.33 0.53 2.24 -0.63
1998:04 -4.11 0.48 -0.03 9.46 2.09 3.8 1.36 -0.29 0.66 2.71 -0.05
1999:01 -2.71 1.88 1.31 10.08 2.68 4.88 2.7 1.12 0.2 2.34 -0.29
1999:02 -1.92 2.64 1.99 10.08 2.61 5.29 3.39 1.88 0.23 2.59 0.12
1999:03 -1.2 3.32 2.56 9.89 2.47 5.59 3.98 2.56 0.41 2.97 0.68
1999:04 -1.82 2.67 1.83 8.44 1.2 4.6 3.25 1.9 0.76 3.59 1.51
2000:01 -0.43 4 3.02 8.98 1.8 5.51 4.46 3.21 0.35 3.13 1.24
2000:02 -0.72 3.66 2.57 7.83 0.9 4.79 4.01 2.86 0.53 3.45 1.8
2000:03 0.48 4.78 3.54 7.99 1.36 5.47 4.98 3.95 0.24 3.09 1.67
2000:04 1.3 5.5 4.08 7.91 1.41 5.73 5.54 4.63 0.27 3.08 1.93
2001:01 3 7.05 5.4 8.38 2.15 6.73 6.88 6.13 0.4 3.09 2.22
2001:02 3.64 7.53 5.65 7.72 1.86 6.66 7.14 6.55 0.93 3.63 3.1
2001:03 5.57 9.26 7.08 8.41 2.65 7.75 8.6 8.2 0.96 3.48 3.26
2001:04 6.36 9.84 7.34 7.76 2.33 7.67 8.89 8.69 1.34 3.88 4.02
2002:01 6.75 10 7.2 6.69 1.7 7.2 8.77 8.76 1.54 4.17 4.68
2002:02 7.06 10.07 6.97 5.86 1.1 6.67 8.56 8.74 1.34 3.96 4.81
2002:03 7.28 10.06 6.67 4.79 0.53 6.09 8.27 8.63 1.1 3.69 4.87
2002:04 8.51 11.04 7.33 4.6 0.9 6.46 8.95 9.51 0.69 3.08 4.56
2003:01 9 11.26 7.23 3.99 0.58 6.09 8.86 9.62 0.81 3.15 4.96
2003:02 9.92 11.91 7.54 3.56 0.68 6.13 9.18 10.14 0.79 3 5.12
2003:03 8.67 10.41 5.77 1.15 -1.02 4.17 7.41 8.54 1.08 3.42 5.89
2003:04 8.22 9.72 4.84 -0.01 -1.72 3.09 6.48 7.75 0.49 2.67 5.42
2004:01 8.3 9.58 4.47 -0.8 -1.81 2.6 6.11 7.51 -0.3 1.57 4.54
2004:02 8.58 9.63 4.29 -1.43 -1.68 2.32 5.93 7.46 -0.61 0.97 4.17
2004:03 8.76 9.58 4.01 -1.83 -1.62 1.97 5.65 7.31 -0.56 0.73 4.13
2004:04 9.55 10.13 4.33 -1.85 -1.03 2.21 5.97 7.76 -0.48 0.47 4.03
2005:01 9.4 9.74 3.72 -2.8 -1.29 1.56 5.36 7.27 -0.14 0.62 4.34
2005:02 10.91 10.99 4.72 -1.94 -0.12 2.49 6.36 8.4 -0.41 -0.06 3.76
2005:03 11.18 10.99 4.47 -2.48 -0.16 2.2 6.13 8.28 -0.13 0.07 3.99
2005:04 12.42 11.93 5.14 -2.19 0.59 2.81 6.81 9.1 -0.05 -0.1 3.88
2006:01 12.98 12.2 5.13 -2.32 0.66 2.75 6.81 9.23 0.3 0.12 4.15
2006:02 14.59 13.47 6.09 -1.71 1.55 3.63 7.78 10.35 0.43 0.01 4.05
2006:03 15.8 14.32 6.61 -1.61 1.93 4.07 8.32 11.05 0.73 0.21 4.26
2006:04 16.93 15.08 7.03 -1.41 2.15 4.4 8.75 11.64 1.03 0.52 4.56
2007:01 17.65 15.41 7.01 -1.78 1.96 4.3 8.75 11.8 1.22 0.8 4.83
2007:02 18.31 15.69 6.93 -2.23 1.73 4.15 8.7 11.9 1.26 0.95 4.94
2007:03 19.64 16.59 7.47 -1.89 2.06 4.6 9.25 12.62 1.04 0.69 4.6
2007:04 20.67 17.19 7.68 -2 2.05 4.74 9.49 13.03 1.14 0.9 4.73
2008:01 21.83 17.9 8 -2.07 2.13 4.97 9.83 13.53 1.21 1.08 4.84
2008:02 20.62 16.27 6.03 -4.09 0.22 3 7.89 11.72 1.76 2.2 5.97
2008:03 20.48 15.74 5.18 -5.03 -0.44 2.19 7.07 11.02 1.14 1.72 5.37
2008:04 22.86 17.66 6.74 -3.71 1.07 3.73 8.66 12.74 -0.05 0.14 3.55
2009:01 23.51 17.85 6.57 -3.94 0.89 3.55 8.52 12.74 0.33 0.76 4.06
2009:02 21.94 15.87 4.29 -6.21 -1.07 1.37 6.29 10.59 1.03 1.99 5.25
2009:03 18.75 12.35 0.59 -9.68 -3.95 -2.09 2.65 6.96 0.96 2.33 5.51
2009:04 14.85 8.2 -3.6 -13.24 -6.79 -5.86 -1.47 2.77 -0.03 1.49 4.45
2010:01 11.77 4.95 -6.8 -15.67 -8.3 -8.52 -4.57 -0.46 -1.83 -0.53 2.14
2010:02 9.04 2.11 -9.49 -17.46 -9.07 -10.57 -7.15 -3.23 -3.09 -2.15 0.21
2010:03 6.56 -0.42 -11.81 -18.7 -9.33 -12.15 -9.33 -5.65 -3.53 -3.01 -1
2010:04 5.16 -1.84 -12.97 -18.74 -8.47 -12.55 -10.35 -6.93 -3.86 -4.18 -2.65
Return to Figure 2c

Fig. 2d: Credit-to-GDP Ratio Gaps: HP:400000 gaps and 90th percentiles

  Quasi real-time gap Quasi real-time 90th percentile Final gap Final 90th percentile
80:01:00 -1.08 2.81 -1.59 8
80:02:00 -0.17 2.8 -0.74 8
80:03:00 -0.53 2.78 -1.17 8
80:04:00 -2.54 2.78 -3.38 8
81:01:00 -4.77 2.83 -5.95 8
81:02:00 -3.03 2.87 -4.45 8
81:03:00 -3.53 2.89 -5.23 8
81:04:00 -2.2 2.87 -4.11 8
82:01:00 0.28 2.87 -1.71 8
82:02:00 0.22 2.86 -1.84 8
82:03:00 0.74 2.85 -1.38 8
82:04:00 0.55 2.85 -1.62 8
83:01:00 0.02 2.84 -2.25 8
83:02:00 -0.98 2.83 -3.4 8
83:03:00 -1.45 2.81 -4.05 8
83:04:00 -1.56 2.8 -4.35 8
84:01:00 -1.43 2.79 -4.4 8
84:02:00 -0.66 2.79 -3.78 8
84:03:00 0.35 2.79 -2.86 8
84:04:00 2.06 2.79 -1.15 8
85:01:00 3.04 2.85 -0.09 8
85:02:00 4.05 2.86 1.04 8
85:03:00 4.48 2.92 1.63 8
85:04:00 6.06 2.93 3.48 8
86:01:00 6.53 2.97 4.23 8
86:02:00 7.53 2.99 5.6 8
86:03:00 8.34 3.01 6.83 8
86:04:00 9.57 3.09 8.56 8
87:01:00 9.04 3.23 8.52 8
87:02:00 8.97 3.27 8.95 8
87:03:00 8.84 3.28 9.33 8
87:04:00 7.74 3.36 8.69 8
88:01:00 8.16 3.38 9.6 8
88:02:00 7.5 3.44 9.42 8
88:03:00 7.5 3.51 9.9 8
88:04:00 6.81 3.52 9.66 8
89:01:00 5.7 3.68 8.95 8
89:02:00 5.29 3.93 8.92 8
89:03:00 4.65 3.98 8.64 8
89:04:00 5.16 4.03 9.54 8
90:01:00 3.67 4.04 8.37 8
90:02:00 2.75 4.02 7.7 8
90:03:00 2.46 3.95 7.67 8
90:04:00 2.97 3.85 8.46 8
91:01:00 2.12 3.83 7.84 8
91:02:00 0.75 3.81 6.63 8
91:03:00 -1.16 3.78 4.76 8
91:04:00 -2.51 3.77 3.37 8
92:01:00 -3.91 3.9 1.84 8
92:02:00 -5.69 3.93 -0.18 8
92:03:00 -6.76 3.98 -1.57 8
92:04:00 -7.73 4.08 -2.94 8
93:01:00 -8.36 4.26 -4 8
93:02:00 -8.67 4.34 -4.8 8
93:03:00 -8.54 4.53 -5.16 8
93:04:00 -9.46 4.87 -6.65 8
94:01:00 -9.61 5.2 -7.4 8
94:02:00 -9.99 5.53 -8.42 8
94:03:00 -9.56 5.83 -8.63 8
94:04:00 -9.33 6.12 -9.06 8
95:01:00 -8.05 6.36 -8.38 8
95:02:00 -6.54 6.55 -7.4 8
95:03:00 -6.05 6.71 -7.44 8
95:04:00 -5.79 6.86 -7.7 8
96:01:00 -4.98 6.97 -7.39 8
96:02:00 -5.37 7.1 -8.32 8
96:03:00 -4.93 7.2 -8.41 8
96:04:00 -5.34 7.24 -9.39 8
97:01:00 -5.04 7.27 -9.67 8
97:02:00 -4.92 7.3 -10.12 8
97:03:00 -4.43 7.3 -10.21 8
97:04:00 -3.46 7.29 -9.77 8
98:01:00 -2.11 7.26 -8.89 8
98:02:00 -0.58 7.22 -7.75 8
98:03:00 -0.33 7.18 -7.89 8
98:04:00 -0.29 7.13 -8.24 8
99:01:00 1.12 7.06 -7.16 8
99:02:00 1.88 6.91 -6.68 8
99:03:00 2.56 6.76 -6.25 8
99:04:00 1.9 6.62 -7.2 8
0:01 3.21 6.48 -6.12 8
0:02 2.86 6.35 -6.72 8
0:03 3.95 6.22 -5.82 8
0:04 4.63 6.1 -5.29 8
1:01 6.13 6.26 -3.85 8
1:02 6.55 6.57 -3.47 8
1:03 8.2 6.65 -1.76 8
1:04 8.69 7.27 -1.17 8
2:01 8.76 7.29 -0.99 8
2:02 8.74 7.3 -0.89 8
2:03 8.63 7.27 -0.88 8
2:04 9.51 7.27 0.17 8
3:01 9.62 7.23 0.47 8
3:02 10.14 7.2 1.23 8
3:03 8.54 7.26 -0.22 8
3:04 7.75 7.46 -0.89 8
4:01 7.51 7.33 -1.02 8
4:02 7.46 7.19 -0.95 8
4:03 7.31 7.06 -0.99 8
4:04 7.76 6.82 -0.4 8
5:01 7.27 6.91 -0.76 8
5:02 8.4 6.84 0.58 8
5:03 8.28 6.53 0.67 8
5:04 9.1 6.55 1.75 8
6:01 9.23 7.01 2.17 8
6:02 10.35 6.77 3.66 8
6:03 11.05 7.29 4.78 8
6:04 11.64 7.27 5.84 8
7:01 11.8 7.24 6.49 8
7:02 11.9 7.39 7.12 8
7:03 12.62 7.43 8.42 8
7:04 13.03 7.56 9.45 8
8:01 13.53 7.58 10.63 8
8:02 11.72 7.72 9.41 8
8:03 11.02 7.78 9.28 8
8:04 12.74 7.81 11.69 8
9:01 12.74 7.83 12.39 8
9:02 10.59 8.19 10.85 8
9:03 6.96 7.9 7.63 8
9:04 2.77 7.86 3.63 8
10:01 -0.46 7.86 0.4 8
10:02 -3.23 7.91 -2.54 8
10:03 -5.65 7.98 -5.26 8
10:04 -6.93 8 -6.93 8
Return to Figure 2d

Fig. 3a: Credit-to-GDP Ratio Gap Revisions: True real-time to true final deterministic methods

  Linear Quadratic Cubic Cubic Spline
1995:02 -5.69 -5.37 3.06 -11.27
1995:03 -8.62 -5.69 -0.57 -11.8
1995:04 -9.87 -7.14 -2.22 -13.18
1996:01 -9.94 -7.35 -2.56 -13.19
1996:02 -10.43 -8.07 -3.5 -13.7
1996:03 -10.93 -8.74 -4.29 -14.07
1996:04 -11.44 -9.41 -5.13 -14.57
1997:01 -9.57 -10.83 -3.15 -14.06
1997:02 -7.82 -9.95 -3.05 -14.23
1997:03 -7.88 -10.25 -3.63 -14.55
1997:04 -8 -11.03 -5.11 -15.46
1998:01 -6.65 -10.1 -4.61 -14.75
1998:02 -7.54 -10.99 -5.46 -14.77
1998:03 -8.62 -12.18 -6.72 -15.28
1998:04 -8.64 -12.37 -7.05 -15
1999:01 -7.6 -11.58 -6.48 -13.87
1999:02 -10.78 -14.3 -8.61 -14.2
1999:03 -10.49 -12.14 -10.17 -12.72
1999:04 -10.47 -12.31 -10.5 -12.39
2000:01 -8.15 -12.7 -7.5 -10.92
2000:02 -8.59 -13.36 -8.34 -11.17
2000:03 -8.1 -12.9 -7.89 -9.88
2000:04 -8.72 -13.52 -8.47 -9.72
2001:01 -6.64 -11.59 -6.7 -7.41
2001:02 -8.7 -13.36 -8.1 -7.35
2001:03 -8.59 -13.08 -7.63 -5.98
2001:04 -8.97 -13.36 -7.8 -5.21
2002:01 -7.13 -11.54 -6.02 -2.75
2002:02 -9.16 -13.2 -7.27 -2.81
2002:03 -8.68 -12.63 -6.65 -1.48
2002:04 -8.44 -12.22 -6.1 -0.09
2003:01 -8.71 -12.3 -6.06 0.49
2003:02 -8.6 -12.03 -5.71 1.46
2003:03 -7.77 -11.12 -4.77 2.75
2003:04 -7.66 -10.91 -4.59 3.07
2004:01 -6.85 -10.32 -4.31 3.55
2004:02 -5.45 -8.92 -3.11 4.78
2004:03 -5.34 -8.75 -3.08 4.73
2004:04 -5.73 -9.08 -3.51 4.53
2005:01 -5.95 -9.24 -3.79 4.47
2005:02 -4.86 -7.98 -2.6 5.58
2005:03 -4.69 -7.99 -2.94 5.26
2005:04 -4.73 -7.9 -2.94 5.46
2006:01 -4.46 -7.45 -2.55 5.79
2006:02 -4.2 -6.44 -1.06 8
2006:03 -3.58 -5.66 -0.39 8.71
2006:04 -2.88 -4.84 0.23 9.04
2007:01 -2.45 -4.27 0.69 9.41
2007:02 -3.07 -4.44 0.49 9.54
2007:03 -2.5 -3.69 1.28 10.15
2007:04 -2.34 -3.25 1.56 10.13
2008:01 -1.19 -1.85 2.83 11.32
2008:02 -3.53 -3.15 2.12 10.98
2008:03 -1.14 -0.59 4.39 12.71
2008:04 -0.07 0.66 5.37 13.2
2009:01 0.39 1.39 5.91 13.27
2009:02 -0.2 -0.16 3.55 11.03
2009:03 0.14 0.23 3.44 10.3
2009:04 0.73 0.88 3.55 9.21
2010:01 1.01 1.13 3.16 7.48
2010:02 -0.45 -0.13 1.53 4.95
2010:03 -0.21 -0.02 0.85 2.62
2010:04 0 0 0 0
Return to Figure 3a

Fig. 3b: Credit-to-GDP Ratio Gap Revisions: Quasi real-tim to true final deterministic methods

  Linear Quadratic Cubic Cubic Spline
1980:01 -0.58 -3.95 -4.02 -3.53
1980:02 -0.71 -3.99 -3.68 -2.91
1980:03 -0.85 -4.06 -3.42 -2.53
1980:04 -1.08 -4.32 -3.47 -2.71
1981:01 -1.39 -4.76 -3.85 -3.49
1981:02 -1.64 -5.07 -3.99 -3.84
1981:03 -1.91 -5.42 -4.2 -4.27
1981:04 -2.14 -5.67 -4.23 -4.36
1982:01 -2.28 -5.73 -3.92 -3.87
1982:02 -2.42 -5.8 -3.64 -3.44
1982:03 -2.55 -5.83 -3.3 -2.93
1982:04 -2.68 -5.87 -3.01 -2.6
1983:01 -2.83 -5.97 -2.81 -2.41
1983:02 -3.01 -6.15 -2.76 -2.51
1983:03 -3.22 -6.37 -2.78 -2.8
1983:04 -3.43 -6.6 -2.83 -3.09
1984:01 -3.64 -6.83 -2.87 -3.35
1984:02 -3.82 -7 -2.81 -3.46
1984:03 -3.97 -7.11 -2.64 -3.33
1984:04 -4.06 -7.09 -2.26 -2.83
1985:01 -4.12 -7 -1.77 -2.17
1985:02 -4.14 -6.83 -1.17 -1.33
1985:03 -4.15 -6.64 -0.53 -0.47
1985:04 -4.1 -6.33 0.28 0.65
1986:01 -4.03 -5.99 1.14 1.81
1986:02 -3.92 -5.58 2.09 3.12
1986:03 -3.77 -5.1 3.13 4.45
1986:04 -3.58 -4.54 4.29 6.01
1987:01 -3.4 -4 5.37 7.35
1987:02 -3.21 -3.47 6.42 8.52
1987:03 -3.02 -2.94 7.45 9.64
1987:04 -2.85 -2.47 8.32 10.45
1988:01 -2.66 -1.97 9.24 11.25
1988:02 -2.49 -1.51 10.07 11.91
1988:03 -2.3 -1.05 10.89 12.54
1988:04 -2.13 -0.62 11.62 12.96
1989:01 -1.98 -0.26 12.22 13.15
1989:02 -1.84 0.08 12.77 13.25
1989:03 -1.71 0.38 13.24 13.24
1989:04 -1.56 0.72 13.77 13.34
1990:01 -1.44 0.96 14.12 13.12
1990:02 -1.35 1.16 14.38 12.81
1990:03 -1.26 1.33 14.6 12.42
1990:04 -1.16 1.55 14.87 12.15
1991:01 -1.07 1.71 15.06 11.85
1991:02 -1.02 1.79 15.09 11.23
1991:03 -1.02 1.75 14.92 10.25
1991:04 -1.06 1.62 14.61 9.23
1992:01 -1.13 1.41 14.15 7.88
1992:02 -1.26 1.09 13.5 6.23
1992:03 -1.42 0.7 12.75 4.67
1992:04 -1.61 0.24 11.89 2.85
1993:01 -1.82 -0.26 10.97 0.96
1993:02 -2.05 -0.8 10.01 -0.63
1993:03 -2.29 -1.34 9.07 -2.31
1993:04 -2.55 -1.94 8.03 -4.13
1994:01 -2.83 -2.56 6.96 -5.61
1994:02 -3.12 -3.22 5.86 -7.31
1994:03 -3.42 -3.87 4.79 -8.9
1994:04 -3.71 -4.52 3.73 -10.1
1995:01 -3.98 -5.11 2.79 -11.23
1995:02 -4.22 -5.63 1.99 -12.06
1995:03 -4.46 -6.13 1.23 -12.55
1995:04 -4.69 -6.62 0.48 -13.15
1996:01 -4.92 -7.08 -0.2 -13.61
1996:02 -5.15 -7.58 -0.93 -13.95
1996:03 -5.38 -8.06 -1.63 -14.34
1996:04 -5.63 -8.56 -2.38 -14.82
1997:01 -5.87 -9.07 -3.12 -15.12
1997:02 -6.12 -9.57 -3.86 -15.49
1997:03 -6.36 -10.06 -4.56 -15.78
1997:04 -6.58 -10.51 -5.19 -15.85
1998:01 -6.78 -10.89 -5.71 -15.74
1998:02 -6.94 -11.2 -6.1 -15.39
1998:03 -7.1 -11.5 -6.48 -15.03
1998:04 -7.26 -11.81 -6.87 -14.69
1999:01 -7.38 -12.04 -7.15 -14.12
1999:02 -7.49 -12.24 -7.37 -13.54
1999:03 -7.59 -12.4 -7.53 -12.83
1999:04 -7.69 -12.6 -7.77 -12.25
2000:01 -7.77 -12.73 -7.91 -11.63
2000:02 -7.86 -12.88 -8.08 -11.01
2000:03 -7.91 -12.97 -8.17 -10.21
2000:04 -7.95 -13.03 -8.21 -9.54
2001:01 -7.96 -13.01 -8.13 -8.53
2001:02 -7.95 -12.96 -8.02 -7.46
2001:03 -7.89 -12.83 -7.78 -6.42
2001:04 -7.83 -12.67 -7.5 -5.18
2002:01 -7.75 -12.49 -7.22 -3.93
2002:02 -7.66 -12.31 -6.94 -3.03
2002:03 -7.58 -12.12 -6.68 -1.99
2002:04 -7.46 -11.88 -6.35 -0.81
2003:01 -7.34 -11.63 -6.02 0.03
2003:02 -7.19 -11.33 -5.64 1.12
2003:03 -7.07 -11.11 -5.4 1.97
2003:04 -6.96 -10.91 -5.22 2.34
2004:01 -6.85 -10.71 -5.06 2.85
2004:02 -6.73 -10.5 -4.92 3.37
2004:03 -6.61 -10.29 -4.79 3.54
2004:04 -6.47 -10.06 -4.62 3.94
2005:01 -6.33 -9.83 -4.5 4.29
2005:02 -6.16 -9.55 -4.29 4.49
2005:03 -5.99 -9.26 -4.09 4.83
2005:04 -5.79 -8.92 -3.83 5.31
2006:01 -5.59 -8.56 -3.56 5.51
2006:02 -5.35 -8.15 -3.21 6.01
2006:03 -5.08 -7.68 -2.8 6.62
2006:04 -4.8 -7.18 -2.34 7.05
2007:01 -4.49 -6.66 -1.87 7.61
2007:02 -4.18 -6.11 -1.39 8.19
2007:03 -3.84 -5.52 -0.86 8.62
2007:04 -3.48 -4.89 -0.29 9.2
2008:01 -3.1 -4.23 0.32 9.86
2008:02 -2.74 -3.62 0.8 10.02
2008:03 -2.38 -3.03 1.23 10.17
2008:04 -1.97 -2.34 1.79 10.56
2009:01 -1.56 -1.64 2.36 10.76
2009:02 -1.17 -1.02 2.76 10.71
2009:03 -0.84 -0.52 2.91 10.15
2009:04 -0.57 -0.2 2.74 8.86
2010:01 -0.37 0 2.34 7.16
2010:02 -0.21 0.09 1.72 5.09
2010:03 -0.09 0.07 0.91 2.64
2010:04 0 0 0 0
Return to Figure 3b

Fig. 3c: Credit-to-GDP Ratio Gap Revisions: True real-time to true final HP-filter

  HP:1600 HP:25000 HP:125000 HP:400000
1995:02 -2.32 -0.28 0.47 -0.87
1995:03 -2.28 -1.65 -1.39 -2.83
1995:04 -2.95 -3.01 -2.86 -4.27
1996:01 -2.3 -3.08 -3.08 -4.49
1996:02 -2.44 -3.76 -3.84 -5.21
1996:03 -2.43 -4.3 -4.53 -5.89
1996:04 -2.62 -4.92 -5.25 -6.59
1997:01 -1.97 -4.58 -5.01 -6.35
1997:02 -2.02 -4.37 -4.51 -5.54
1997:03 -2.22 -4.81 -4.98 -5.93
1997:04 -2.82 -5.98 -6.13 -6.86
1998:01 -2.09 -5.37 -5.48 -6.05
1998:02 -2.29 -6.01 -6.37 -7.01
1998:03 -2.98 -7.08 -7.63 -8.29
1998:04 -3.04 -7.28 -7.94 -8.58
1999:01 -2.27 -6.6 -7.32 -7.91
1999:02 -2.86 -8.28 -9.7 -10.62
1999:03 -2.4 -7.68 -9.04 -9.71
1999:04 -2.64 -7.93 -9.36 -10
2000:01 -1.17 -6.7 -8.43 -9.25
2000:02 -2.12 -7.48 -9.25 -10.03
2000:03 -1.63 -6.93 -8.85 -9.67
2000:04 -2.08 -7.39 -9.5 -10.37
2001:01 -0.62 -5.62 -7.73 -8.57
2001:02 -1.28 -6.74 -9.29 -10.35
2001:03 -0.51 -6.1 -8.93 -10.13
2001:04 -0.53 -6.15 -9.18 -10.47
2002:01 0.98 -4.37 -7.45 -8.76
2002:02 0.48 -5.33 -8.85 -10.4
2002:03 0.9 -4.66 -8.29 -9.9
2002:04 1.3 -4.07 -7.83 -9.54
2003:01 1.24 -3.96 -7.86 -9.67
2003:02 1.31 -3.61 -7.59 -9.47
2003:03 1.36 -2.84 -6.73 -8.62
2003:04 0.92 -2.75 -6.59 -8.5
2004:01 0.54 -2.56 -6.26 -8.05
2004:02 0.63 -1.62 -5.08 -6.79
2004:03 -0.14 -1.76 -5.08 -6.74
2004:04 -1.08 -2.29 -5.52 -7.16
2005:01 -1.93 -2.69 -5.81 -7.43
2005:02 -1.39 -1.64 -4.66 -6.26
2005:03 -2.24 -2.09 -4.93 -6.41
2005:04 -2.58 -2.18 -4.94 -6.4
2006:01 -2.52 -1.86 -4.55 -6.01
2006:02 -0.88 -0.2 -3.16 -4.88
2006:03 -0.54 0.38 -2.47 -4.17
2006:04 -0.28 0.9 -1.81 -3.44
2007:01 0.04 1.3 -1.32 -2.92
2007:02 0.21 1.28 -1.41 -3.1
2007:03 1.24 2.08 -0.63 -2.33
2007:04 1.67 2.3 -0.31 -1.95
2008:01 3.31 3.64 1.05 -0.59
2008:02 3.68 3.26 0.31 -1.63
2008:03 5.8 5.46 2.69 0.84
2008:04 6.84 6.4 3.79 2.03
2009:01 7.9 7.01 4.45 2.73
2009:02 7.07 5.26 2.63 1.07
2009:03 7 5.15 2.75 1.33
2009:04 6.52 5 2.99 1.8
2010:01 5.3 4.25 2.74 1.83
2010:02 3.62 2.53 1.26 0.49
2010:03 1.89 1.37 0.71 0.31
2010:04 0 0 0 0
Return to Figure 3c

Fig. 3d: Credit-to-GDP Ratio Gap Revisions: Quasi real-time to true final HP-filter

  HP:1600 HP:25000 HP:125000 HP:400000
1980:01 0.19 -1.86 -1.97 -0.51
1980:02 0.67 -1.8 -2 -0.56
1980:03 0.99 -1.79 -2.05 -0.64
1980:04 0.83 -2.03 -2.27 -0.84
1981:01 0.15 -2.54 -2.66 -1.18
1981:02 -0.19 -2.88 -2.93 -1.42
1981:03 -0.67 -3.29 -3.25 -1.7
1981:04 -0.9 -3.57 -3.47 -1.91
1982:01 -0.66 -3.6 -3.51 -1.99
1982:02 -0.5 -3.64 -3.56 -2.06
1982:03 -0.32 -3.65 -3.57 -2.11
1982:04 -0.26 -3.69 -3.6 -2.17
1983:01 -0.39 -3.81 -3.67 -2.26
1983:02 -0.82 -4.06 -3.82 -2.41
1983:03 -1.41 -4.38 -4.01 -2.59
1983:04 -2.09 -4.73 -4.22 -2.79
1984:01 -2.8 -5.07 -4.41 -2.97
1984:02 -3.41 -5.34 -4.56 -3.12
1984:03 -3.86 -5.5 -4.62 -3.21
1984:04 -4.01 -5.48 -4.56 -3.2
1985:01 -4.02 -5.35 -4.42 -3.14
1985:02 -3.9 -5.11 -4.19 -3.01
1985:03 -3.77 -4.82 -3.93 -2.85
1985:04 -3.38 -4.36 -3.53 -2.59
1986:01 -2.96 -3.84 -3.1 -2.29
1986:02 -2.4 -3.2 -2.57 -1.93
1986:03 -1.74 -2.46 -1.97 -1.51
1986:04 -0.87 -1.58 -1.26 -1.01
1987:01 -0.17 -0.74 -0.57 -0.51
1987:02 0.47 0.1 0.12 -0.01
1987:03 1.07 0.93 0.82 0.49
1987:04 1.43 1.66 1.45 0.95
1988:01 1.89 2.45 2.13 1.45
1988:02 2.25 3.18 2.77 1.92
1988:03 2.65 3.93 3.42 2.4
1988:04 2.97 4.62 4.03 2.85
1989:01 3.12 5.21 4.57 3.25
1989:02 3.28 5.77 5.09 3.63
1989:03 3.42 6.28 5.57 3.99
1989:04 3.77 6.87 6.1 4.38
1990:01 3.93 7.31 6.52 4.69
1990:02 4.01 7.67 6.87 4.96
1990:03 4.18 8.02 7.21 5.21
1990:04 4.59 8.44 7.59 5.49
1991:01 4.95 8.79 7.91 5.72
1991:02 5.14 9.01 8.12 5.88
1991:03 5.07 9.02 8.19 5.92
1991:04 4.84 8.9 8.15 5.88
1992:01 4.46 8.63 8 5.75
1992:02 3.84 8.17 7.7 5.51
1992:03 3.14 7.61 7.3 5.19
1992:04 2.37 6.94 6.82 4.8
1993:01 1.6 6.2 6.27 4.35
1993:02 0.88 5.44 5.68 3.87
1993:03 0.28 4.69 5.08 3.38
1993:04 -0.42 3.84 4.39 2.81
1994:01 -1.09 2.97 3.67 2.21
1994:02 -1.77 2.05 2.89 1.57
1994:03 -2.32 1.18 2.13 0.92
1994:04 -2.8 0.32 1.36 0.27
1995:01 -3 -0.4 0.67 -0.33
1995:02 -2.9 -0.96 0.07 -0.86
1995:03 -2.74 -1.49 -0.52 -1.39
1995:04 -2.58 -2 -1.1 -1.91
1996:01 -2.33 -2.43 -1.64 -2.41
1996:02 -2.25 -2.93 -2.23 -2.95
1996:03 -2.17 -3.41 -2.8 -3.48
1996:04 -2.27 -3.95 -3.43 -4.05
1997:01 -2.42 -4.49 -4.05 -4.63
1997:02 -2.64 -5.04 -4.69 -5.21
1997:03 -2.86 -5.57 -5.31 -5.78
1997:04 -2.98 -6.01 -5.87 -6.31
1998:01 -2.94 -6.34 -6.35 -6.78
1998:02 -2.7 -6.52 -6.73 -7.17
1998:03 -2.54 -6.71 -7.1 -7.56
1998:04 -2.52 -6.92 -7.49 -7.95
1999:01 -2.33 -7.01 -7.78 -8.27
1999:02 -2.11 -7.05 -8.03 -8.56
1999:03 -1.9 -7.05 -8.24 -8.81
1999:04 -1.96 -7.16 -8.51 -9.11
2000:01 -1.87 -7.15 -8.69 -9.33
2000:02 -1.97 -7.21 -8.9 -9.58
2000:03 -1.96 -7.19 -9.05 -9.77
2000:04 -1.92 -7.12 -9.14 -9.92
2001:01 -1.67 -6.91 -9.14 -9.98
2001:02 -1.44 -6.69 -9.1 -10.02
2001:03 -0.96 -6.31 -8.94 -9.95
2001:04 -0.5 -5.9 -8.74 -9.86
2002:01 -0.12 -5.51 -8.54 -9.75
2002:02 0.15 -5.16 -8.34 -9.63
2002:03 0.32 -4.84 -8.15 -9.51
2002:04 0.59 -4.44 -7.89 -9.34
2003:01 0.81 -4.05 -7.62 -9.15
2003:02 1.07 -3.63 -7.31 -8.91
2003:03 0.93 -3.41 -7.11 -8.76
2003:04 0.57 -3.29 -6.98 -8.64
2004:01 0.13 -3.22 -6.86 -8.53
2004:02 -0.33 -3.17 -6.75 -8.42
2004:03 -0.85 -3.15 -6.64 -8.3
2004:04 -1.27 -3.09 -6.5 -8.15
2005:01 -1.8 -3.09 -6.4 -8.02
2005:02 -2.09 -2.98 -6.2 -7.82
2005:03 -2.4 -2.88 -6.01 -7.61
2005:04 -2.52 -2.69 -5.75 -7.35
2006:01 -2.6 -2.49 -5.47 -7.06
2006:02 -2.43 -2.16 -5.1 -6.69
2006:03 -2.09 -1.74 -4.67 -6.27
2006:04 -1.6 -1.26 -4.18 -5.8
2007:01 -1.06 -0.75 -3.66 -5.31
2007:02 -0.47 -0.22 -3.13 -4.79
2007:03 0.33 0.4 -2.52 -4.2
2007:04 1.25 1.07 -1.87 -3.58
2008:01 2.33 1.82 -1.16 -2.9
2008:02 3.07 2.37 -0.58 -2.31
2008:03 3.75 2.85 -0.03 -1.74
2008:04 4.88 3.55 0.66 -1.05
2009:01 6.09 4.26 1.36 -0.34
2009:02 6.91 4.73 1.92 0.26
2009:03 7.05 4.82 2.21 0.68
2009:04 6.43 4.44 2.19 0.86
2010:01 5.28 3.72 1.93 0.86
2010:02 3.74 2.69 1.45 0.7
2010:03 1.89 1.41 0.78 0.39
2010:04 0 0 0 0
Return to Figure 3d

Fig. 3e: Credit-to-GDP Ratio Gap Revisions: True real-time to true final frequency methods

  BK:30 BK:60 BK:90
1995:02 1.85 2.22 0.12
1995:03 1.52 1.36 -1.27
1995:04 1.68 1.42 -1.45
1996:01 1.33 0.9 -2.24
1996:02 0.9 0.34 -3.02
1996:03 0.53 -0.01 -3.57
1996:04 -0.22 -0.8 -4.54
1997:01 -0.84 -1.39 -5.28
1997:02 -0.74 -0.89 -4.7
1997:03 -0.79 -0.79 -4.63
1997:04 -0.83 -0.72 -4.47
1998:01 -0.74 -0.46 -4.14
1998:02 -0.58 -0.12 -3.86
1998:03 -0.96 -0.46 -4.2
1998:04 -1.43 -0.96 -4.66
1999:01 -1.61 -1.07 -4.66
1999:02 -1.83 -1.69 -5.43
1999:03 -2.07 -1.98 -5.52
1999:04 -2.45 -2.66 -6.04
2000:01 -2.46 -3.04 -6.37
2000:02 -2.18 -2.89 -6
2000:03 -1.9 -2.9 -5.82
2000:04 -1.28 -2.57 -5.31
2001:01 -0.65 -2.28 -4.77
2001:02 0.49 -1.69 -4.06
2001:03 1.28 -1.31 -3.5
2001:04 1.36 -1.67 -3.66
2002:01 0.72 -2.99 -4.78
2002:02 1.19 -3.08 -4.75
2002:03 1.76 -2.9 -4.34
2002:04 2.58 -2.24 -3.45
2003:01 2.7 -2.29 -3.28
2003:02 2.27 -2.71 -3.47
2003:03 0.75 -4.33 -4.89
2003:04 0.16 -4.77 -5.08
2004:01 -0.05 -4.63 -4.62
2004:02 -0.46 -4.52 -4.22
2004:03 -0.67 -4.12 -3.54
2004:04 -1.44 -4.19 -3.36
2005:01 -2.28 -4.43 -3.4
2005:02 -2.52 -3.92 -2.68
2005:03 -2.88 -3.49 -2.04
2005:04 -2.84 -2.6 -0.97
2006:01 -3.06 -2.13 -0.4
2006:02 -2.91 -1.52 0.1
2006:03 -2.53 -0.35 1.38
2006:04 -2.06 0.89 2.72
2007:01 -1.76 1.71 3.58
2007:02 -1.47 2.36 4.17
2007:03 -0.65 3.51 5.28
2007:04 0.27 4.74 6.57
2008:01 0.31 4.71 6.43
2008:02 0.54 4.26 5.62
2008:03 2.25 5.62 6.85
2008:04 5.21 8.93 10.18
2009:01 6.11 9.44 10.53
2009:02 5.05 7.6 8.36
2009:03 3.45 5.15 5.65
2009:04 1.73 2.73 3.05
2010:01 1.03 1.72 1.96
2010:02 0.24 0.38 0.41
2010:03 -0.27 -0.43 -0.49
2010:04 0 0 0
Return to Figure 3e

Fig. 3f: Credit-to-GDP Ratio Gap Revisions: Quasi real-time to true final frequency methods

  BK:30 BK:60 BK:90
1980:01 1.37 2.43 -0.64
1980:02 1.4 2.09 -0.95
1980:03 0.55 0.73 -2.22
1980:04 -0.49 -0.85 -3.66
1981:01 -0.86 -1.7 -4.29
1981:02 -0.51 -1.64 -4.06
1981:03 -0.16 -1.76 -3.93
1981:04 0.81 -1.16 -3.08
1982:01 1.4 -0.98 -2.69
1982:02 1.5 -1.38 -2.81
1982:03 1.58 -1.73 -2.87
1982:04 1.36 -2.36 -3.19
1983:01 0.86 -3.19 -3.68
1983:02 0.22 -4.08 -4.2
1983:03 -0.44 -4.86 -4.61
1983:04 -1.07 -5.51 -4.89
1984:01 -1.49 -5.85 -4.85
1984:02 -1.6 -5.79 -4.42
1984:03 -1.53 -5.49 -3.78
1984:04 -1.49 -5.18 -3.15
1985:01 -1.66 -5.04 -2.7
1985:02 -1.79 -4.83 -2.19
1985:03 -1.8 -4.48 -1.55
1985:04 -1.51 -3.75 -0.59
1986:01 -1.32 -3.18 0.22
1986:02 -0.84 -2.29 1.32
1986:03 -0.45 -1.5 2.29
1986:04 -0.23 -0.87 3.07
1987:01 -0.56 -0.91 3.16
1987:02 -0.57 -0.57 3.62
1987:03 -0.56 -0.22 4.08
1987:04 -0.59 0.05 4.44
1988:01 -0.3 0.71 5.17
1988:02 -0.36 0.93 5.43
1988:03 -0.34 1.26 5.77
1988:04 -0.39 1.43 5.95
1989:01 -0.27 1.73 6.26
1989:02 0.07 2.29 6.78
1989:03 0.23 2.62 7.05
1989:04 0.33 2.92 7.21
1990:01 0.18 2.82 6.97
1990:02 0.7 3.43 7.41
1990:03 1.55 4.38 8.13
1990:04 2.13 4.99 8.48
1991:01 2.04 4.8 7.99
1991:02 1.82 4.43 7.33
1991:03 1.61 4.07 6.66
1991:04 1.49 3.81 6.09
1992:01 1.12 3.28 5.24
1992:02 0.53 2.45 4.09
1992:03 0.28 2.07 3.38
1992:04 0.14 1.78 2.78
1993:01 0.25 1.75 2.43
1993:02 0.45 1.83 2.2
1993:03 0.5 1.76 1.82
1993:04 -0.01 0.97 0.7
1994:01 -0.23 0.62 0.06
1994:02 -0.43 0.27 -0.59
1994:03 -0.14 0.5 -0.62
1994:04 0.31 0.85 -0.55
1995:01 1.13 1.66 0
1995:02 1.65 2.12 0.19
1995:03 1.55 1.8 -0.41
1995:04 1.46 1.53 -0.93
1996:01 1.47 1.47 -1.22
1996:02 0.98 0.81 -2.1
1996:03 0.71 0.53 -2.56
1996:04 0.02 -0.22 -3.47
1997:01 -0.48 -0.64 -4.01
1997:02 -0.94 -1.01 -4.48
1997:03 -1.04 -0.99 -4.54
1997:04 -0.82 -0.6 -4.2
1998:01 -0.62 -0.25 -3.89
1998:02 -0.7 -0.24 -3.91
1998:03 -1.3 -0.95 -4.64
1998:04 -1.59 -1.32 -4.99
1999:01 -1.31 -0.97 -4.57
1999:02 -1.44 -1.21 -4.76
1999:03 -1.64 -1.59 -5.06
1999:04 -2.08 -2.35 -5.73
2000:01 -1.9 -2.26 -5.48
2000:02 -2.31 -3.03 -6.12
2000:03 -1.97 -2.91 -5.82
2000:04 -1.42 -2.67 -5.39
2001:01 -0.47 -2.01 -4.53
2001:02 0.18 -1.83 -4.18
2001:03 1 -1.32 -3.45
2001:04 0.96 -1.88 -3.82
2002:01 0.76 -2.65 -4.4
2002:02 0.99 -2.86 -4.4
2002:03 1.51 -2.72 -4.04
2002:04 2.31 -2.08 -3.15
2003:01 2.3 -2.33 -3.19
2003:02 1.87 -2.86 -3.49
2003:03 0.6 -4.41 -4.85
2003:04 0.02 -4.9 -5.11
2004:01 -0.2 -4.78 -4.72
2004:02 -0.56 -4.74 -4.44
2004:03 -1.05 -4.74 -4.21
2004:04 -1.55 -4.6 -3.83
2005:01 -2.34 -4.82 -3.86
2005:02 -2.44 -4.06 -2.88
2005:03 -2.87 -3.81 -2.48
2005:04 -2.84 -2.96 -1.47
2006:01 -2.94 -2.34 -0.73
2006:02 -2.8 -1.36 0.37
2006:03 -2.8 -0.67 1.13
2006:04 -2.67 0.03 1.86
2007:01 -2.2 0.95 2.76
2007:02 -1.44 2.07 3.85
2007:03 -0.5 3.43 5.19
2007:04 -0.09 4.03 5.72
2008:01 0.29 4.48 6.07
2008:02 0.45 4.15 5.51
2008:03 2.24 5.78 7.01
2008:04 4.85 8.63 9.82
2009:01 5.48 8.76 9.73
2009:02 4.66 7.06 7.73
2009:03 3.23 4.75 5.16
2009:04 1.72 2.56 2.79
2010:01 0.89 1.35 1.47
2010:02 0.23 0.37 0.41
2010:03 -0.24 -0.37 -0.41
2010:04 0 0 0
Return to Figure 3f

Fig. 4a: Quarters in which the Credit-to-GDP Ratio Gap is in the 90th Percentile: Quasi real-time

  Linear Quadratic Cubic Cubic spline HP: 1600 HP: 25000 HP: 125000 HP: 400000 BK: 6 to 30 BK: 6 to 60 BK: 6 to 90
1980:01 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
1980:02 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
1980:03 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1980:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1981:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1981:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1981:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1981:04 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1982:01 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
1982:02 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1982:03 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
1982:04 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1983:01 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1983:02 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1983:03 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1983:04 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1984:01 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1984:02 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1984:03 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1984:04 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
1985:01 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1
1985:02 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1985:03 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1985:04 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1986:01 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1986:02 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1986:03 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1986:04 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1987:01 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1987:02 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
1987:03 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1
1987:04 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1
1988:01 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1
1988:02 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1
1988:03 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1
1988:04 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1
1989:01 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
1989:02 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
1989:03 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
1989:04 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
1990:01 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1990:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1990:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1990:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1992:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1992:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1992:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1992:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1993:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1993:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1993:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1993:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1994:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1994:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1994:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1994:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1995:01 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1995:02 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1995:03 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1995:04 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1996:01 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1996:02 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1996:03 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1996:04 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1997:01 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1997:02 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1997:03 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1997:04 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1998:01 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1998:02 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1998:03 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1998:04 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1999:01 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
1999:02 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
1999:03 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
1999:04 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
2000:01 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
2000:02 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
2000:03 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
2000:04 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
2001:01 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
2001:02 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0
2001:03 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0
2001:04 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0
2002:01 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0
2002:02 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0
2002:03 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0
2002:04 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0
2003:01 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0
2003:02 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0
2003:03 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
2003:04 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
2004:01 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
2004:02 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
2004:03 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
2004:04 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
2005:01 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
2005:02 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
2005:03 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
2005:04 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
2006:01 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
2006:02 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
2006:03 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
2006:04 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
2007:01 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
2007:02 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0
2007:03 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
2007:04 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
2008:01 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
2008:02 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0
2008:03 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
2008:04 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
2009:01 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
2009:02 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
2009:03 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2009:04 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010:01 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010:02 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010:03 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Return to Figure 4a

Fig. 4b: Quarters in which the Credit-to-GDP Ratio Gap is in the 90th Percentile: Final

  Linear Quadratic Cubic Cubic spline HP: 1600 HP: 25000 HP: 125000 HP: 400000 BK: 6 to 30 BK: 6 to 60 BK: 6 to 90
1980:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1980:02 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
1980:03 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
1980:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1981:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1981:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1981:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1981:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1982:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1982:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1982:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1982:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1983:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1983:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1983:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1983:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1984:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1984:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1984:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1984:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1985:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1985:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1985:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1985:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1986:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1986:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1986:03 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1986:04 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
1987:01 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
1987:02 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
1987:03 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0
1987:04 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1
1988:01 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1
1988:02 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1
1988:03 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1
1988:04 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1
1989:01 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1
1989:02 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1
1989:03 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1
1989:04 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1
1990:01 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1
1990:02 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1
1990:03 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1
1990:04 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1
1991:01 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0
1991:02 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0
1991:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1992:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1992:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1992:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1992:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1993:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1993:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1993:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1993:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1994:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1994:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1994:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1994:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1995:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1995:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1995:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1995:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1996:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
1996:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1996:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1996:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1997:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1997:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1997:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1997:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1998:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1998:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1998:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1998:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1999:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1999:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1999:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1999:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2000:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2000:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2000:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2000:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2001:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2001:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2001:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2001:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
2002:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
2002:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
2002:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
2002:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
2003:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
2003:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
2003:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2003:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2004:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2004:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2004:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2004:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2005:01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2005:02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2005:03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2005:04 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2006:01 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2006:02 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2006:03 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2006:04 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2007:01 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2007:02 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
2007:03 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1
2007:04 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1
2008:01 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1
2008:02 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1
2008:03 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1
2008:04 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2009:01 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2009:02 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2009:03 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1
2009:04 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
2010:01 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010:02 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010:03 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Return to Figure 4b

Fig. 5a: Distribution of Unweighted and Weighted Capital Ratios: 2001Q4

upper left panel, frequency  ratio
  0
4.60E-04 0.00333333
1.20E-04 0.01666667
1.20E-04 0.03
1.20E-04 0.03666667
2.30E-04 0.04333333
1.20E-04 0.05
1.20E-04 0.05666667
8.10E-04 0.06333333
6.90E-04 0.07666667
0.0028 0.08333334
0.006 0.09
0.0143 0.09666666
0.0697 0.10333333
0.084 0.11
0.0792 0.11666667
0.0756 0.12333333
0.0684 0.13
0.0575 0.13666667
0.0479 0.14333333
0.0482 0.15000001
0.0394 0.15666667
0.0369 0.16333333
0.0337 0.17
0.0267 0.17666666
0.0239 0.18333334
0.0273 0.19
0.0177 0.19666667
0.0204 0.20333333
0.02 0.20999999
0.0159 0.21666667
0.0131 0.22333333
0.0117 0.23
0.0109 0.23666666
0.0098 0.24333334
0.0079 0.25
0.0087 0.25666666
0.0073 0.26333332
0.0062 0.27000001
0.0078 0.27666667
0.0063 0.28333333
0.0053 0.28999999
0.0036 0.29666665
0.0045 0.30333334
0.0041 0.31
0.0031 0.31666666
0.0029 0.32333332
0.0026 0.33000001
0.0033 0.33666667
0.0032 0.34333333
0.0029 0.34999999
0.0023 0.35666665
0.0015 0.36333334
0.0013 0.37
0.0014 0.37666667
0.0012 0.38333333
0.0013 0.38999999
0.0474 0.39666668
Return to Figure 5a

Fig. 5b: Distribution of Unweighted and Weighted Capital Ratios: 2001Q4

upper right panel, frequency  ratio
  0
4.40E-05 0.00253165
2.50E-04 0.01772152
1.50E-05 0.0278481
4.40E-04 0.03291139
1.10E-04 0.04303797
3.60E-05 0.04810126
2.90E-06 0.05822785
3.20E-04 0.06329114
1.50E-05 0.06835443
3.00E-04 0.07848101
3.70E-04 0.08354431
0.0039 0.08860759
0.005 0.09367089
0.0122 0.09873418
0.0817 0.10379747
0.1102 0.10886076
0.1364 0.11392405
0.1844 0.11898734
0.1829 0.12405063
0.0416 0.12911393
0.0593 0.13417721
0.0146 0.1392405
0.0113 0.1443038
0.0256 0.14936709
0.0202 0.15443037
0.0088 0.15949367
0.0109 0.16455697
0.0054 0.16962026
0.0056 0.17468354
0.0039 0.17974684
0.0072 0.18481013
0.0036 0.18987341
0.0049 0.19493671
0.0022 0.2
0.0077 0.2050633
0.0029 0.21012658
0.0036 0.21518987
0.0012 0.22025317
0.0037 0.22531645
0.0014 0.23037975
0.0014 0.23544304
0.0013 0.24050634
0.0024 0.24556962
0.0024 0.25063291
7.90E-04 0.25569621
0.0011 0.2607595
0.0014 0.2658228
5.60E-04 0.27088606
0.0023 0.27594936
6.20E-04 0.28101265
6.70E-04 0.28607595
4.80E-04 0.29113925
0.0044 0.29620254
4.80E-04 0.30126584
0.001 0.3063291
0.002 0.3113924
2.50E-04 0.31645569
0.0021 0.32151899
2.00E-04 0.32658228
3.00E-04 0.33164558
2.90E-04 0.33670887
3.80E-04 0.34177214
5.20E-04 0.34683543
1.10E-04 0.35189873
2.30E-04 0.35696203
1.50E-04 0.36202532
9.70E-05 0.36708862
2.40E-04 0.37215191
1.00E-04 0.37721518
1.20E-04 0.38227847
7.60E-05 0.38734177
3.80E-04 0.39240506
0.007 0.39746836
Return to Figure 5b

Fig. 5c: Distribution of Unweighted and Weighted Capital Ratios: 2003Q2

lower left panel, frequency  ratio
  0.0174
1.20E-04 0.01982152
1.20E-04 0.03435063
1.20E-04 0.03919367
1.20E-04 0.04403671
2.40E-04 0.04887975
1.20E-04 0.0682519
2.40E-04 0.07793798
0.0013 0.08278101
0.0015 0.08762405
0.0024 0.09246709
0.0068 0.09731013
0.0445 0.10215317
0.0565 0.1069962
0.054 0.11183924
0.0548 0.11668228
0.058 0.12152532
0.0545 0.12636836
0.0495 0.13121139
0.0444 0.13605443
0.0414 0.14089747
0.0358 0.14574051
0.0366 0.15058355
0.034 0.15542658
0.0247 0.16026962
0.0276 0.16511266
0.0257 0.1699557
0.0213 0.17479873
0.0212 0.17964177
0.0228 0.18448481
0.0177 0.18932785
0.0175 0.19417089
0.0152 0.19901392
0.0133 0.20385696
0.0105 0.2087
0.0126 0.21354304
0.0121 0.21838607
0.0102 0.22322911
0.0093 0.22807215
0.0081 0.23291519
0.0065 0.23775823
0.008 0.24260126
0.0059 0.2474443
0.0068 0.25228733
0.0055 0.25713038
0.0063 0.26197341
0.0054 0.26681647
0.0042 0.27165949
0.0039 0.27650252
0.0038 0.28134558
0.0025 0.2861886
0.0044 0.29103166
0.0034 0.29587469
0.0036 0.30071771
0.0018 0.30556077
0.0031 0.31040379
0.004 0.31524685
0.0023 0.32008988
0.0026 0.3249329
0.0029 0.32977596
0.002 0.33461899
0.0023 0.33946201
0.0019 0.34430507
0.0015 0.34914809
0.0012 0.35399115
0.0018 0.35883418
0.0011 0.3636772
0.0017 0.36852026
0.0013 0.37336329
0.0018 0.37820634
0.0012 0.38304937
9.50E-04 0.3878924
0.0013 0.39273545
0.0465 0.39757848
Return to Figure 5c

Fig. 5d: Distribution of Unweighted and Weighted Capital Ratios: 2003Q2

lower right panel, frequency  ratio
  0.0174
4.80E-06 0.01982152
5.70E-04 0.03435063
4.80E-06 0.03919367
1.30E-05 0.04403671
6.80E-06 0.04887975
7.20E-06 0.0682519
3.80E-05 0.07793798
3.00E-04 0.08278101
2.20E-04 0.08762405
5.40E-04 0.09246709
0.0014 0.09731013
0.0834 0.10215317
0.1578 0.1069962
0.0778 0.11183924
0.138 0.11668228
0.1783 0.12152532
0.0712 0.12636836
0.0278 0.13121139
0.0717 0.13605443
0.0157 0.14089747
0.0144 0.14574051
0.0198 0.15058355
0.0086 0.15542658
0.0055 0.16026962
0.0074 0.16511266
0.0085 0.1699557
0.0067 0.17479873
0.0153 0.17964177
0.0081 0.18448481
0.0105 0.18932785
0.0092 0.19417089
0.0027 0.19901392
0.0057 0.20385696
0.0016 0.2087
0.0021 0.21354304
0.0023 0.21838607
0.0013 0.22322911
0.0017 0.22807215
0.0026 0.23291519
8.40E-04 0.23775823
0.0072 0.24260126
0.0031 0.2474443
0.0017 0.25228733
0.001 0.25713038
0.0018 0.26197341
5.70E-04 0.26681647
0.0013 0.27165949
0.0011 0.27650252
4.60E-04 0.28134558
3.70E-04 0.2861886
0.0019 0.29103166
4.90E-04 0.29587469
3.10E-04 0.30071771
1.80E-04 0.30556077
3.90E-04 0.31040379
3.40E-04 0.31524685
1.70E-04 0.32008988
0.0012 0.3249329
6.10E-04 0.32977596
3.30E-04 0.33461899
3.50E-04 0.33946201
5.80E-04 0.34430507
2.70E-04 0.34914809
0.0043 0.35399115
1.90E-04 0.35883418
1.60E-04 0.3636772
1.40E-04 0.36852026
1.70E-04 0.37336329
1.30E-04 0.37820634
1.70E-04 0.38304937
4.90E-05 0.3878924
2.20E-04 0.39273545
0.0091 0.39757848
Return to Figure 5d

Fig. 6a: Depository Institutions' Loan Volumes: Annualized first difference of DI Loan Volumes

  Actual Alternative
1988:01 19.35  
1988:02 16.93  
1988:03 19.14  
1988:04 14.21  
1989:01 15.71  
1989:02 15.45  
1989:03 8.30  
1989:04 7.45  
1990:01 9.69  
1990:02 3.03  
1990:03 0.87  
1990:04 -2.85  
1991:01 -8.62  
1991:02 -9.26  
1991:03 -14.92  
1991:04 -10.38  
1992:01 -6.01  
1992:02 -8.86  
1992:03 -2.73  
1992:04 -2.36  
1993:01 -3.88  
1993:02 3.78  
1993:03 2.30  
1993:04 5.53  
1994:01 8.07  
1994:02 14.35  
1994:03 17.30  
1994:04 22.05  
1995:01 25.47  
1995:02 17.35  
1995:03 13.14  
1995:04 8.73  
1996:01 11.81  
1996:02 16.41  
1996:03 19.12  
1996:04 9.12  
1997:01 14.05  
1997:02 19.13  
1997:03 17.72  
1997:04 14.97  
1998:01 15.09  
1998:02 13.50  
1998:03 16.83  
1998:04 26.33  
1999:01 18.45  
1999:02 6.64  
1999:03 28.23  
1999:04 28.82  
2000:01 41.26  
2000:02 39.20  
2000:03 19.12  
2000:04 18.38  
2001:01 19.66  
2001:02 10.84  
2001:03 1.41  
2001:04 1.77  
2002:01 4.74 -30.53
2002:02 8.88 -26.40
2002:03 35.31 0.03
2002:04 22.33 -12.94
2003:01 20.48  
2003:02 22.81  
2003:03 19.98  
2003:04 9.28  
2004:01 39.02  
2004:02 39.46  
2004:03 39.72  
2004:04 49.31  
2005:01 45.16  
2005:02 52.21  
2005:03 46.99  
2005:04 38.71  
2006:01 49.94  
2006:02 52.05  
2006:03 30.81  
2006:04 38.63  
2007:01 32.73  
2007:02 51.86  
2007:03 73.45  
2007:04 60.47  
2008:01 43.69  
2008:02 16.41  
2008:03 15.58  
2008:04 -3.88  
2009:01 -33.18  
2009:02 -48.81  
2009:03 -68.01  
2009:04 -44.52  
2010:01 -41.65  
2010:02 -27.37  
2010:03 -19.34  
2010:04 -3.07  
Return to Figure 6a

Fig. 6b: Depository Institutions' Loan Volumes: DI loan volumes

  1991:Q1 (actual) 2001:Q4 (actual) 2001:Q4 (alternative) 2009:Q2 (actual)
-8 103.72 93.23 93.23 97.59
-7 104.55 95.53 95.53 100.41
-6 104.84 97.93 97.93 102.9
-5 105.03 98.73 98.73 104.41
-4 104.89 99.55 99.55 104.25
-3 104.04 100.29 100.29 103.78
-2 103.19 100.39 100.39 103.92
-1 102.04 100.18 100.18 102.21
0 100 100 100 100
1 98.27 99.99 97.49 96.85
2 95.88 100.17 95.19 94.97
3 94.19 102.21 94.78 92.91
4 93.06 103.17 93.32 91.26
5 91.53 103.85 94.07 89.97
6 90.82 105.12 95.37 89.76
7 90.05 105.9 96.2  
8 89.11 105.99 96.34  
9 89.02 107.72 98.15  
10 88.85 109.46 99.98  
11 88.94 111.33 101.91  
12 89.31 113.76 104.42  
Return to Figure 6b
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Last update: September 7, 2011