The Federal Reserve Board eagle logo links to home page
Skip to: [Printable Version (PDF)] [Bibliography] [Footnotes]
Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 001101 ♣

From Many Series, One Cycle: Improved Estimates of the Business Cycle from a Multivariate Unobserved Components Model

Charles A. Fleischman and John M. Roberts

Figure 1: Model Estimate of Cycle

Quarter Cycle Lower 90 percent range Upper 90 percent range
1967Q1 3.08939188631376 2.12178092987235 4.05700284275516
1967Q2 2.92215935421121 1.95634551132015 3.88797319710228
1967Q3 2.79513415141454 1.83094570978547 3.7593225930436
1967Q4 2.69318346504378 1.73046562820463 3.65590130188292
1968Q1 3.02138894401189 2.06000201471017 3.98277587331361
1968Q2 3.3594459643821 2.39926374898421 4.31962817978
1968Q3 3.53865749028537 2.57956589659355 4.49774908397718
1968Q4 3.76181319606856 2.80370899955647 4.71991739258065
1969Q1 3.91968495483219 2.96247471091297 4.87689519875141
1969Q2 3.80967383754314 2.85327292011411 4.76607475497218
1969Q3 3.64515399136842 2.6894857404055 4.60082224233134
1969Q4 3.07855225745865 2.12354722078147 4.03355729413583
1970Q1 2.092601713593 1.13819697004887 3.04700645713713
1970Q2 1.0707158804779 0.116854433681879 2.02457732727392
1970Q3 0.424453444807735 -0.528916321775325 1.37782321139079
1970Q4 -0.683224717025889 -1.63614953144978 0.269700097397997
1971Q1 -0.461434934488626 -1.41395708072665 0.491087211749396
1971Q2 -0.490505121010577 -1.44266284194851 0.461652599927357
1971Q3 -0.569797039262049 -1.52162490298665 0.382030824462552
1971Q4 -0.386345512491548 -1.33787474586531 0.565183720882219
1972Q1 0.0251998110989241 -0.926058981823754 0.976458604021602
1972Q2 0.114881349697535 -0.836132433572066 1.06589513296714
1972Q3 0.39439923866191 -0.556392460624056 1.34519093794788
1972Q4 1.09617563685035 0.14558536874033 2.04676590496037
1973Q1 1.99756496992203 1.04715754057049 2.94797239927356
1973Q2 2.0163499848949 1.06610866791162 2.96659130187819
1973Q3 2.26475745370942 1.31466721097576 3.21484769644307
1973Q4 1.73345841239498 0.783505731568235 2.68341109322172
1974Q1 1.46360902789923 0.513781773959532 2.41343628183892
1974Q2 1.02261686326934 0.0729041430012128 1.97232958353746
1974Q3 -0.243269903591034 -1.19287786519652 0.706338058014448
1974Q4 -2.50800362056792 -3.45751559292283 -1.55849164821302
1975Q1 -4.99807712049133 -5.94750096989388 -4.04865327108878
1975Q2 -5.28407061728403 -6.23341340007235 -4.33472783449571
1975Q3 -4.50055345760907 -5.44982150472687 -3.55128541049127
1975Q4 -3.86822567341577 -4.81742466707838 -2.91902667975317
1976Q1 -3.04486226632552 -3.99399730942781 -2.09572722322323
1976Q2 -3.09142343145853 -4.04049911032171 -2.14234775259536
1976Q3 -3.24677792100646 -4.19579836201984 -2.29775747999308
1976Q4 -3.15286949864578 -4.10183841932093 -2.20390057797064
1977Q1 -2.60215944255133 -3.55108019747014 -1.65323868763252
1977Q2 -1.85804439733498 -2.80692001943876 -0.909168775231198
1977Q3 -1.31780912341569 -2.26664236105046 -0.368975885780931
1977Q4 -1.14973665617012 -2.09853000627266 -0.200943306067581
1978Q1 -0.729285927828698 -1.67804166560961 0.21946980995221
1978Q2 0.2431352337119 -0.70558497174084 1.19185543916464
1978Q3 0.178033529046083 -0.770653052493279 1.12672011058545
1978Q4 0.541208971421427 -0.407445744088497 1.48986368693135
1979Q1 0.496772160457985 -0.451852315089838 1.44539663600581
1979Q2 0.427678483297885 -0.52091726315546 1.37627422975123
1979Q3 0.250216058205367 -0.698352369557644 1.19878448596838
1979Q4 -0.131404394905965 -1.0799468269731 0.81713803716117
1980Q1 -1.13976841207498 -2.08828609558365 -0.191250728566316
1980Q2 -2.83204674538278 -3.78054086183029 -1.88355262893527
1980Q3 -2.91310946262376 -3.86158113689956 -1.96463778834796
1980Q4 -2.16183821222638 -3.11028852059696 -1.2133879038558
1981Q1 -2.3340722594653 -3.28250223663688 -1.38564228229373
1981Q2 -2.76482829007491 -3.71323893544763 -1.8164176447022
1981Q3 -3.23163118807255 -4.18002347128926 -2.28323890485584
1981Q4 -4.51752113004047 -5.46589599592451 -3.56914626415644
1982Q1 -5.66715755584914 -6.61551592881574 -4.71879918288254
1982Q2 -6.31364411158611 -7.26198689960557 -5.36530132356665
1982Q3 -7.37756948731899 -8.3258975855018 -6.42924138913618
1982Q4 -8.07120568121914 -9.01951997508752 -7.12289138735076
1983Q1 -7.31427687668468 -8.26257824518935 -6.36597550818001
1983Q2 -6.0790051831461 -7.02729450148204 -5.13071586481015
1983Q3 -4.88754761257971 -5.8358257548507 -3.93926947030871
1983Q4 -3.73114528157985 -4.67941312335755 -2.78287743980215
1984Q1 -2.87380741289041 -3.82206583371078 -1.92554899207004
1984Q2 -2.44595970520168 -3.39420959103884 -1.49770981936453
1984Q3 -2.3743995215254 -3.32264176728107 -1.42615727576972
1984Q4 -2.16650318260678 -3.11473869465154 -1.21826767056202
1985Q1 -2.11922574573464 -3.06745544453628 -1.17099604693301
1985Q2 -2.12245692006367 -3.07068174293684 -1.17423209719049
1985Q3 -2.11148435617709 -3.05970526018879 -1.16326345216538
1985Q4 -2.00768132946367 -2.95589929452838 -1.05946336439896
1986Q1 -2.01990904074513 -2.9681250729444 -1.07169300854586
1986Q2 -2.11076879400474 -3.05898392916734 -1.16255365884215
1986Q3 -1.93246175599915 -2.88067706357821 -0.984246448420101
1986Q4 -1.63850890052343 -2.58672548780988 -0.690292313236989
1987Q1 -1.2889671248223 -2.23718614153555 -0.340748108109062
1987Q2 -0.803796104795974 -1.7520187480954 0.144426538503456
1987Q3 -0.540140343265383 -1.48836786322974 0.408087176698974
1987Q4 -0.194235430838201 -1.14246913646309 0.753998274786686
1988Q1 -0.0166915205902744 -0.964932786358527 0.931549745177978
1988Q2 0.482752206180276 -0.465498066903716 1.43100247926427
1988Q3 0.556208710060108 -0.392052098100152 1.50446951822037
1988Q4 1.01581306708666 0.0675401068361217 1.9640860273372
1989Q1 0.892618887651729 -0.0556679404650074 1.84090571576847
1989Q2 0.732230549691729 -0.21607197126453 1.68053307064799
1989Q3 0.676645489465699 -0.271674669954993 1.62496564888639
1989Q4 0.534800934309159 -0.413538942425631 1.48314081104395
1990Q1 0.479599392831998 -0.468762427093317 1.42796121275731
1990Q2 0.133817469113273 -0.814568682057053 1.0822036202836
1990Q3 -0.610581082998397 -1.55899413227846 0.337831966281662
1990Q4 -1.54622817600752 -2.49467088732979 -0.597785464685247
1991Q1 -2.37956776280082 -3.3280431172064 -1.43109240839524
1991Q2 -2.66414257895476 -3.61265379659055 -1.71563136131897
1991Q3 -2.96404741248021 -3.91259797674183 -2.01549684821859
1991Q4 -3.3830207063161 -4.33161439034375 -2.43442702228844
1992Q1 -3.56128846821748 -4.50992936397138 -2.61264757246358
1992Q2 -3.79325948598248 -4.74195203614567 -2.84456693581929
1992Q3 -3.81156766817021 -4.76031670114965 -2.86281863519077
1992Q4 -3.22620274134778 -4.17501350966963 -2.27739197302594
1993Q1 -2.9948700856761 -3.94374830809824 -2.04599186325397
1993Q2 -2.69546705004927 -3.64441895774409 -1.74651514235445
1993Q3 -2.42319851314425 -3.37223090033634 -1.47416612595216
1993Q4 -2.15340363997165 -3.10252391945006 -1.20428336049323
1994Q1 -1.83723002689229 -2.78644629085505 -0.888013762929533
1994Q2 -1.28559867618209 -2.23491976291099 -0.336277589453183
1994Q3 -0.914442961553666 -1.86387852846208 0.0349926053547454
1994Q4 -0.41018342163216 -1.35974402527592 0.539377182011596
1995Q1 -0.341411347638437 -1.29110853133181 0.608285836054939
1995Q2 -0.575545454879756 -1.52539184461392 0.374300934854408
1995Q3 -0.269750291356711 -1.21975970077795 0.680259118064533
1995Q4 -0.275907816271104 -1.22609536154089 0.674279728998678
1996Q1 -0.293703108750409 -1.24408533417794 0.656679116677125
1996Q2 0.00891090359650804 -0.941684111816288 0.959505919009304
1996Q3 0.298741363974395 -0.65208626692276 1.24956899487155
1996Q4 0.503704332066452 -0.44737761955135 1.45478628368425
1997Q1 0.667456483915091 -0.283903552595268 1.61881652042545
1997Q2 0.902660870305495 -0.0490032698527757 1.85432501046377
1997Q3 1.1368129222883 0.184816191626694 2.0888096529499
1997Q4 1.39532779952706 0.442967290493765 2.34768830856036
1998Q1 1.60261680461329 0.649858374375608 2.55537523485098
1998Q2 1.73833441677157 0.78514069078015 2.691528142763
1998Q3 1.74504909840557 0.791379168952148 2.69871902785899
1998Q4 2.05414759843721 1.09995669650173 3.00833850037268
1999Q1 2.23973935231927 1.28497849054872 3.19450021408981
1999Q2 2.27742203872006 1.32203762323948 3.23280645420065
1999Q3 2.44584582736446 1.48977923597536 3.40191241875357
1999Q4 2.67206790984108 1.71525503401394 3.62888078566822
2000Q1 2.73776951611397 1.78014026403118 3.69539876819675
2000Q2 2.6891553420566 1.73063309981165 3.64767758430155
2000Q3 2.76343069030847 1.8039317382182 3.72292964239873
2000Q4 2.46927456643583 1.50870744727649 3.42984168559517
2001Q1 2.10467408338574 1.14293891922346 3.06640924754803
2001Q2 1.47742264544061 0.514410399595659 2.44043489128557
2001Q3 0.396140564521699 -0.568267754914862 1.36054888395826
2001Q4 -0.623459359712724 -1.5893935584959 0.34247483907045
2002Q1 -0.588934737485061 -1.55653635973938 0.378666884769256
2002Q2 -0.573059773145466 -1.5424830956318 0.396363549340871
2002Q3 -0.651181897276578 -1.6225949972756 0.320231202722448
2002Q4 -0.803463663704592 -1.77704956439611 0.170122236986922
2003Q1 -1.19183721282956 -2.16779511001586 -0.215879315643259
2003Q2 -1.3628156631637 -2.34136223711396 -0.384269089213451
2003Q3 -0.904601714390257 -1.88597253046703 0.0767691016865123
2003Q4 -0.576443079629047 -1.56089408119305 0.408007921934958
2004Q1 -0.500375413180695 -1.48818451005294 0.487433683691553
2004Q2 -0.209752050224534 -1.20122080571409 0.78171670526502
2004Q3 0.0267365325873374 -0.968718886592024 1.0221919517667
2004Q4 0.127556715887253 -0.872239705643194 1.1273531374177
2005Q1 0.416722686365302 -0.587798407017897 1.4212437797485
2005Q2 0.600225879726461 -0.40943498994464 1.60988674939756
2005Q3 0.786822168550405 -0.228427228660138 1.80207156576095
2005Q4 1.09942381510139 0.078101172087115 2.12074645811566
2006Q1 1.5867224581885 0.558803455346573 2.61464146103042
2006Q2 1.54808702132345 0.513007611314546 2.58316643133236
2006Q3 1.70696918252034 0.664121737436672 2.74981662760401
2006Q4 2.00328792022096 0.952018471979515 3.05455736846241
2007Q1 1.73060033117611 0.670205693074322 2.79099496927789
2007Q2 1.77547437501497 0.705199130662622 2.84574961936733
2007Q3 1.46633990430353 0.38537323720124 2.54730657140582
2007Q4 1.17790556313502 0.0853778767272393 2.2704332495428
2008Q1 0.771811537714907 -0.333209223091764 1.87683229852158
2008Q2 -0.00768195122360626 -1.12619441025377 1.11083050780656
2008Q3 -1.18088175372828 -2.31395587570986 -0.0478076317466949
2008Q4 -3.35619964930414 -4.50498269163264 -2.20741660697563
2009Q1 -5.31442104238074 -6.48014480906999 -4.14869727569149
2009Q2 -6.57278166994053 -7.75677027704415 -5.38879306283692
2009Q3 -7.0777732926919 -8.2814606924986 -5.8740858928852
2009Q4 -6.77935072476156 -8.00430744819849 -5.55439400132463
2010Q1 -6.24210069152555 -7.48995212803694 -4.99424925501416
2010Q2 -6.05806997798658 -7.33061796871295 -4.78552198726021
2010Q3 -5.87219786443991 -7.17277627485618 -4.57161945402364
2010Q4 -5.42408594537864 -6.753828525146 -4.09434336561127
2011Q1 -4.64051381754847 -6.00319138373252 -3.27783625136442
Return to Figure 1

Figure 2: The Cycle and the Gaps

Quarter Model-based cycle GDI minus potential GDP minus potential
1999Q1 2.23973935231927 2.74834287638589 1.70457693452909
1999Q2 2.27742203872006 2.45936329952724 1.52629717924447
1999Q3 2.44584582736446 2.37469542025735 1.80402295360147
1999Q4 2.67206790984108 2.80577888466871 2.30979176230449
2000Q1 2.73776951611397 3.73926438323758 1.49010675080797
2000Q2 2.6891553420566 3.18593550257572 2.3158791021134
2000Q3 2.76343069030847 3.42192284648013 1.90080750466404
2000Q4 2.46927456643583 2.60149003221397 1.86812821741864
2001Q1 2.10467408338574 2.94371995061192 0.883232172880525
2001Q2 1.47742264544061 1.97865360142782 0.925671010863766
2001Q3 0.396140564521699 0.829049781165281 -0.0362397425438985
2001Q4 -0.623459359712724 -0.524222443095255 -0.555549093412537
2002Q1 -0.588934737485061 0.17608741682227 -0.234581667065868
2002Q2 -0.573059773145466 -0.192377546092303 -0.619134425006337
2002Q3 -0.651181897276578 -0.670753083216596 -0.477647196214548
2002Q4 -0.803463663704592 -0.709212119276799 -0.898505906902415
2003Q1 -1.19183721282956 -1.14014729764938 -1.21478259568403
2003Q2 -1.3628156631637 -0.900930019309385 -1.13750780579994
2003Q3 -0.904601714390257 -0.46164682074334 0.0801958305337394
2003Q4 -0.576443079629047 -0.230470855991143 0.120473502027608
2004Q1 -0.500375413180695 -0.193767381222642 0.00200788536312757
2004Q2 -0.209752050224534 0.368636625515705 0.2372405263161
2004Q3 0.0267365325873374 0.632141634863729 0.190080466109748
2004Q4 0.127556715887253 0.511994210687362 0.152890472102058
2005Q1 0.416722686365302 0.921212182461431 0.544828015619942
2005Q2 0.600225879726461 1.05746921954642 0.383278806029466
2005Q3 0.786822168550405 1.27399642817136 0.642997764730239
2005Q4 1.09942381510139 1.88034572174865 0.580792959213682
2006Q1 1.5867224581885 2.67064718520271 1.05583362861319
2006Q2 1.54808702132345 2.45648782556441 0.907658704469668
2006Q3 1.70696918252034 2.61807497094878 0.60184011557692
2006Q4 2.00328792022096 2.99518050120844 1.00347741354562
2007Q1 1.73060033117611 1.97171086721244 0.768316817003893
2007Q2 1.77547437501497 1.64456997331718 1.20063097408649
2007Q3 1.46633990430353 0.868622880713701 1.47625666950239
2007Q4 1.17790556313502 0.510241909275805 1.18083742602767
2008Q1 0.771811537714907 0.49100086191811 0.0802094837167715
2008Q2 -0.00768195122360626 -0.619217346720689 -0.416702643928375
2008Q3 -1.18088175372828 -1.64036185759414 -1.70002356472344
2008Q4 -3.35619964930414 -4.34875596183713 -4.14609376281646
2009Q1 -5.31442104238074 -6.27581762421414 -5.97261750655275
2009Q2 -6.57278166994053 -7.3162384173005 -6.66198755625248
2009Q3 -7.0777732926919 -7.74447976260967 -6.99410456246335
2009Q4 -6.77935072476156 -7.05506260766276 -6.53335221866053
2010Q1 -6.24210069152555 -6.02442566802802 -6.07504011372441
2010Q2 -6.05806997798658 -5.82557926979166 -5.87077979515334
2010Q3 -5.87219786443991 -5.56317099659964 -5.6140660486933
2010Q4 -5.42408594537864 -5.27311253821267 -5.10723790349766
2011Q1 -4.64051381754847 -4.66208676297958 -4.88014889982492
Return to Figure 2

Figure 3a: I(2) Trend Components

Quarter Trend Labor Productivity
1967Q1 2.61084130904266
1967Q2 2.57188482035127
1967Q3 2.5299217260059
1967Q4 2.4873324413114
1968Q1 2.44757257302967
1968Q2 2.37765994527045
1968Q3 2.29720745466412
1968Q4 2.21919366165411
1969Q1 2.16665896016008
1969Q2 2.12198214407794
1969Q3 2.1085119067969
1969Q4 2.10858843835685
1970Q1 2.12857287956517
1970Q2 2.16972023928786
1970Q3 2.1881356499812
1970Q4 2.18802107447075
1971Q1 2.21080970224341
1971Q2 2.20384334978019
1971Q3 2.19932712835228
1971Q4 2.1814054029383
1972Q1 2.18319110622778
1972Q2 2.19066293543725
1972Q3 2.16112498590822
1972Q4 2.10747003239281
1973Q1 2.01550933613007
1973Q2 1.9140881406218
1973Q3 1.81187909731246
1973Q4 1.75681482920351
1974Q1 1.67720780044938
1974Q2 1.65046929390449
1974Q3 1.65543061639035
1974Q4 1.68587348667627
1975Q1 1.70457934927402
1975Q2 1.67658497142073
1975Q3 1.63703965840653
1975Q4 1.60078923710591
1976Q1 1.58538251213977
1976Q2 1.55324053526695
1976Q3 1.49512189806858
1976Q4 1.4295979597418
1977Q1 1.37734003168999
1977Q2 1.34265796085277
1977Q3 1.29600672175516
1977Q4 1.2213920333975
1978Q1 1.16243561879321
1978Q2 1.12225148294555
1978Q3 1.06376513672859
1978Q4 0.996769064390182
1979Q1 0.946817491235029
1979Q2 0.909602939890951
1979Q3 0.914053172896146
1979Q4 0.942118839383274
1980Q1 0.969094529428534
1980Q2 0.992283467096908
1980Q3 1.03688038512126
1980Q4 1.09848303683234
1981Q1 1.14586928090231
1981Q2 1.15336222463215
1981Q3 1.17661605853157
1981Q4 1.16152620865909
1982Q1 1.18250874845745
1982Q2 1.22256619686689
1982Q3 1.28323433605823
1982Q4 1.35665862699881
1983Q1 1.42988490985159
1983Q2 1.51148031519112
1983Q3 1.58578883280415
1983Q4 1.66573218344927
1984Q1 1.73327402914031
1984Q2 1.77225351473401
1984Q3 1.78628880063463
1984Q4 1.77995364719124
1985Q1 1.77369527071883
1985Q2 1.77698199600637
1985Q3 1.78871622607761
1985Q4 1.77574087528045
1986Q1 1.76699973212638
1986Q2 1.72759471108427
1986Q3 1.68386926207089
1986Q4 1.64930766662894
1987Q1 1.64002850847481
1987Q2 1.65751199042359
1987Q3 1.66526376390069
1987Q4 1.65652362784521
1988Q1 1.63280302050083
1988Q2 1.59438422269669
1988Q3 1.57430995744647
1988Q4 1.55116359038244
1989Q1 1.53602695310685
1989Q2 1.53561386299054
1989Q3 1.56036238235017
1989Q4 1.59131727009999
1990Q1 1.63438367956897
1990Q2 1.66440705432223
1990Q3 1.66893817286892
1990Q4 1.66444166845363
1991Q1 1.68234013531211
1991Q2 1.70144097218354
1991Q3 1.71326264043469
1991Q4 1.72777669060172
1992Q1 1.73530917701512
1992Q2 1.69455531460173
1992Q3 1.64405253833371
1992Q4 1.59663737867081
1993Q1 1.56250977525589
1993Q2 1.56760448103046
1993Q3 1.59354020645931
1993Q4 1.63773619032558
1994Q1 1.66575593826798
1994Q2 1.683872693779
1994Q3 1.72392315850219
1994Q4 1.7838368378015
1995Q1 1.83986465886364
1995Q2 1.91205147621507
1995Q3 1.98694925221311
1995Q4 2.07780021882378
1996Q1 2.16132338044825
1996Q2 2.22696508932007
1996Q3 2.2759829219331
1996Q4 2.33803481506771
1997Q1 2.41768233379042
1997Q2 2.51728789573226
1997Q3 2.60903346475938
1997Q4 2.68200293252576
1998Q1 2.75268789450041
1998Q2 2.82046522259495
1998Q3 2.87724927096065
1998Q4 2.91059038196921
1999Q1 2.95759940861817
1999Q2 2.99200686237093
1999Q3 3.04099470777184
1999Q4 3.09547801881945
2000Q1 3.11851009040016
2000Q2 3.12516942349831
2000Q3 3.10914535913037
2000Q4 3.09843667905457
2001Q1 3.08782479067139
2001Q2 3.08159849661751
2001Q3 3.05862282939317
2001Q4 3.03033607479542
2002Q1 2.99261756546168
2002Q2 2.93347889061806
2002Q3 2.88054817533783
2002Q4 2.83878020868874
2003Q1 2.81386662543846
2003Q2 2.77618938179587
2003Q3 2.71476060705532
2003Q4 2.64725956318366
2004Q1 2.57310198726675
2004Q2 2.494784035717
2004Q3 2.41569743106777
2004Q4 2.33832747808771
2005Q1 2.26790676841826
2005Q2 2.19109415522312
2005Q3 2.1251110460054
2005Q4 2.05731275577146
2006Q1 1.99384724275091
2006Q2 1.93055957129701
2006Q3 1.87115036965348
2006Q4 1.83475306676328
2007Q1 1.81168051010974
2007Q2 1.81057288602399
2007Q3 1.82607023308924
2007Q4 1.84176289259862
2008Q1 1.8514442328212
2008Q2 1.86146832899813
2008Q3 1.87182411487277
2008Q4 1.8938022772248
2009Q1 1.93385981400029
2009Q2 1.98349007014464
2009Q3 2.01229063475722
2009Q4 2.01902998642695
2010Q1 2.01157924461827
2010Q2 1.97867768551434
2010Q3 1.941353187589
2010Q4 1.90519175775202
2011Q1 1.88369136183154
Return to Figure 3a

Figure 3b: I(2) Trend Components

Quarter Trend labor force participation
1967Q1 0.411561936553676
1967Q2 0.417918881589145
1967Q3 0.406193241625178
1967Q4 0.384632485711276
1968Q1 0.39345884525753
1968Q2 0.406226706699911
1968Q3 0.443615149703953
1968Q4 0.488669921496603
1969Q1 0.51886986794963
1969Q2 0.521566907760876
1969Q3 0.498388941300433
1969Q4 0.476398909803131
1970Q1 0.437084125821611
1970Q2 0.407115930246208
1970Q3 0.375454321643148
1970Q4 0.360870286642452
1971Q1 0.359345931590516
1971Q2 0.382938269328608
1971Q3 0.422970135488362
1971Q4 0.453070420634949
1972Q1 0.46844503578402
1972Q2 0.486240156630651
1972Q3 0.518363168758142
1972Q4 0.555478680377554
1973Q1 0.583407537521182
1973Q2 0.598977039597716
1973Q3 0.623621378837198
1973Q4 0.621484998022617
1974Q1 0.614554628648809
1974Q2 0.610050584335739
1974Q3 0.608554505861841
1974Q4 0.614314780488275
1975Q1 0.643035892629332
1975Q2 0.659146245777019
1975Q3 0.669360383941344
1975Q4 0.693162805365063
1976Q1 0.730750178622564
1976Q2 0.778229612363439
1976Q3 0.827610132101182
1976Q4 0.869404486505002
1977Q1 0.894985560263384
1977Q2 0.890424785482083
1977Q3 0.886268742679025
1977Q4 0.875676302434539
1978Q1 0.863404574408002
1978Q2 0.814791458418994
1978Q3 0.764314820716384
1978Q4 0.702171149282669
1979Q1 0.628860936730009
1979Q2 0.579979532863308
1979Q3 0.535034478397037
1979Q4 0.504039552167252
1980Q1 0.466988342694922
1980Q2 0.450296740069815
1980Q3 0.442181850199097
1980Q4 0.423043740397971
1981Q1 0.404593976127642
1981Q2 0.396026841848372
1981Q3 0.407402272455529
1981Q4 0.422683342469815
1982Q1 0.43572644279335
1982Q2 0.413857933542739
1982Q3 0.38187623170663
1982Q4 0.361785167185465
1983Q1 0.361677409415544
1983Q2 0.361784880502586
1983Q3 0.360084464028582
1983Q4 0.372867071647666
1984Q1 0.405117521549244
1984Q2 0.432603411477668
1984Q3 0.461092075598812
1984Q4 0.489452947747569
1985Q1 0.500217689484837
1985Q2 0.509218943227855
1985Q3 0.516206525152099
1985Q4 0.511977673753918
1986Q1 0.515906299104556
1986Q2 0.506809361934416
1986Q3 0.479881618085495
1986Q4 0.453771810042124
1987Q1 0.435772481291971
1987Q2 0.426223284092747
1987Q3 0.424353829638483
1987Q4 0.422512994105498
1988Q1 0.425156726423806
1988Q2 0.418110938182925
1988Q3 0.40568575674447
1988Q4 0.37790459832999
1989Q1 0.323907027632939
1989Q2 0.26251225022581
1989Q3 0.20221877783861
1989Q4 0.133616426883494
1990Q1 0.0657613896906192
1990Q2 0.0237591270282001
1990Q3 0.00150347177197271
1990Q4 -0.00879206313407987
1991Q1 -0.0086738313200528
1991Q2 -0.00649273520754089
1991Q3 0.00362655666951894
1991Q4 0.0100525551942107
1992Q1 0.0143525206536687
1992Q2 -0.0145347906141479
1992Q3 -0.054707531656734
1992Q4 -0.0736340809945196
1993Q1 -0.084328258600621
1993Q2 -0.100012448565692
1993Q3 -0.101778623396823
1993Q4 -0.0975962279300577
1994Q1 -0.0833010701845165
1994Q2 -0.0646370281590347
1994Q3 -0.0569112279531622
1994Q4 -0.0370667796560452
1995Q1 -0.0200757082920244
1995Q2 0.00769284193184032
1995Q3 0.0431014031732538
1995Q4 0.0965554887916689
1996Q1 0.141102386263535
1996Q2 0.167405263511991
1996Q3 0.178225306541617
1996Q4 0.162171665857841
1997Q1 0.133677986469836
1997Q2 0.104829300681447
1997Q3 0.0820494494221306
1997Q4 0.0656829746371577
1998Q1 0.0500977381072637
1998Q2 0.0360909395540677
1998Q3 0.0167706911322119
1998Q4 -0.00713906968729149
1999Q1 -0.0240752904980545
1999Q2 -0.0450967901557025
1999Q3 -0.0709783503862356
1999Q4 -0.102147732997758
2000Q1 -0.156636355042252
2000Q2 -0.202323475112888
2000Q3 -0.226504620266708
2000Q4 -0.239882139599033
2001Q1 -0.278452797036065
2001Q2 -0.289166515795883
2001Q3 -0.292639345571161
2001Q4 -0.310157746830172
2002Q1 -0.322834810053335
2002Q2 -0.339504346771019
2002Q3 -0.344498825597797
2002Q4 -0.346062400104178
2003Q1 -0.34323531544663
2003Q2 -0.338031219810406
2003Q3 -0.320063396126578
2003Q4 -0.28591450128181
2004Q1 -0.241972524262618
2004Q2 -0.204136732292513
2004Q3 -0.168230925063005
2004Q4 -0.13719724691667
2005Q1 -0.110883197234621
2005Q2 -0.0979317517797846
2005Q3 -0.0894033434095207
2005Q4 -0.0836523002234644
2006Q1 -0.0976876975359325
2006Q2 -0.115869142873486
2006Q3 -0.135528313345753
2006Q4 -0.163072530419896
2007Q1 -0.191810130184046
2007Q2 -0.207518001300313
2007Q3 -0.216416464891832
2007Q4 -0.241118179192282
2008Q1 -0.289013276147638
2008Q2 -0.354380160559541
2008Q3 -0.427379471173614
2008Q4 -0.49013821233954
2009Q1 -0.559523340957349
2009Q2 -0.643786063499602
2009Q3 -0.715951044957254
2009Q4 -0.76149681113867
2010Q1 -0.780904390680296
2010Q2 -0.807229392580029
2010Q3 -0.817958742982813
2010Q4 -0.826917393924771
2011Q1 -0.826917393924771
Return to Figure 3b

Figure 3c: I(2) Trend Components

Quarter Output Sector Ratio Employment Sector Ratio
1967Q1 -0.234823497701882 0.161607525890553
1967Q2 -0.239028396648964 0.153113979083777
1967Q3 -0.243727759992149 0.153824980847743
1967Q4 -0.248664677860766 0.160219766459455
1968Q1 -0.253413992572949 0.167504188927831
1968Q2 -0.25852628768142 0.176132352870943
1968Q3 -0.263842132066464 0.184126364962315
1968Q4 -0.26935983921842 0.190932697361559
1969Q1 -0.274925910761366 0.191044256749892
1969Q2 -0.280821810637403 0.184729885057048
1969Q3 -0.286697471166174 0.168764281260454
1969Q4 -0.292612739476819 0.149805967038239
1970Q1 -0.298353239279484 0.137860852787086
1970Q2 -0.303013676364962 0.124747209561962
1970Q3 -0.307018563334768 0.116105449261508
1970Q4 -0.3103177110555 0.102980425155807
1971Q1 -0.313459956473812 0.0946491011357792
1971Q2 -0.316053659074435 0.0812325690427483
1971Q3 -0.318242166694319 0.0698897340792601
1971Q4 -0.320381229882264 0.069074756154721
1972Q1 -0.321982454926353 0.0712078418840272
1972Q2 -0.322261346276145 0.0710797903628532
1972Q3 -0.322624025032738 0.0740977485126625
1972Q4 -0.32257650034894 0.0825349087612034
1973Q1 -0.322582838780276 0.0878367279997804
1973Q2 -0.320925549987729 0.0879192961722805
1973Q3 -0.319829466730436 0.0888681974063899
1973Q4 -0.31740001627857 0.0991172725405831
1974Q1 -0.317874658938661 0.106719545259883
1974Q2 -0.317008889905853 0.117772823646499
1974Q3 -0.316554316257159 0.12289537050359
1974Q4 -0.315267466248718 0.125616910198699
1975Q1 -0.313330133424169 0.126908667110533
1975Q2 -0.312519373949856 0.13738303923732
1975Q3 -0.311713875212851 0.148286669427959
1975Q4 -0.310584412823932 0.156548527345681
1976Q1 -0.30896753142505 0.163656028263244
1976Q2 -0.306469774120552 0.177850518898622
1976Q3 -0.303802562509943 0.201460106080757
1976Q4 -0.300960008764514 0.230507308266524
1977Q1 -0.298295567491076 0.257779677882094
1977Q2 -0.295159135622417 0.281441583050648
1977Q3 -0.291700651109018 0.298761828109333
1977Q4 -0.288541159454483 0.318541115351105
1978Q1 -0.286103566036976 0.342352223700584
1978Q2 -0.283514958427005 0.365593768649894
1978Q3 -0.280395646876967 0.376127963047762
1978Q4 -0.278141154931305 0.384653481730426
1979Q1 -0.275395432636714 0.388316554080901
1979Q2 -0.273539077285557 0.382415059582795
1979Q3 -0.27177961960243 0.371910135177758
1979Q4 -0.270218064120895 0.35961687514591
1980Q1 -0.268821256218505 0.35146233358484
1980Q2 -0.267328512207182 0.335636735628453
1980Q3 -0.266056384179314 0.320859906914049
1980Q4 -0.263902873344123 0.306586711487855
1981Q1 -0.261247604402776 0.286079734602047
1981Q2 -0.259714678357094 0.269085890978739
1981Q3 -0.258522697806078 0.252874895409759
1981Q4 -0.258422640079177 0.22964136104393
1982Q1 -0.257660959796593 0.203471977220741
1982Q2 -0.256678987729526 0.17827748195753
1982Q3 -0.254751866873531 0.146328105592333
1982Q4 -0.252095889712161 0.116356288221222
1983Q1 -0.249484294881997 0.0931987100584218
1983Q2 -0.24618230188572 0.0732363177754298
1983Q3 -0.241667385870208 0.0573646113059084
1983Q4 -0.236471503400596 0.051314058510275
1984Q1 -0.232136474255232 0.0467052900913514
1984Q2 -0.229038752340336 0.0460331575647762
1984Q3 -0.226246600703197 0.0482389142790961
1984Q4 -0.224088259395067 0.0491084996284157
1985Q1 -0.222185363046411 0.0487882045908909
1985Q2 -0.220342018983801 0.0425810925854769
1985Q3 -0.218525634402588 0.03303956819263
1985Q4 -0.217427447618631 0.0228884208564545
1986Q1 -0.216083156101301 0.0135471957674082
1986Q2 -0.214812780212418 0.0132617922568695
1986Q3 -0.213476395995599 0.0153700197289701
1986Q4 -0.212746538324647 0.0145496130997756
1987Q1 -0.212143286019354 0.0150909819707232
1987Q2 -0.211628603825197 0.0199681239649011
1987Q3 -0.211238044820328 0.0305721219061684
1987Q4 -0.21165752093917 0.0435905076516821
1988Q1 -0.212399870890099 0.0548667680535551
1988Q2 -0.213772475890514 0.0645446096130489
1988Q3 -0.214413741615493 0.0663383296484083
1988Q4 -0.215179999010911 0.0704647514810203
1989Q1 -0.21575771558052 0.0757218898313977
1989Q2 -0.217661240522632 0.07769940719175
1989Q3 -0.219993100723564 0.0822395417443745
1989Q4 -0.222680299065929 0.0905686962236767
1990Q1 -0.22563383887516 0.0944875137433959
1990Q2 -0.229187515200574 0.0922817330301553
1990Q3 -0.232972417490004 0.0895405300092033
1990Q4 -0.237006487880978 0.0852840031533398
1991Q1 -0.240932955783382 0.0789498134369324
1991Q2 -0.244836560993945 0.0734655038128219
1991Q3 -0.248450543096884 0.070972652544264
1991Q4 -0.251763495031926 0.0736057947396104
1992Q1 -0.25495461730866 0.081632374643471
1992Q2 -0.258272625764997 0.103574342938728
1992Q3 -0.261553782911331 0.12613736703855
1992Q4 -0.265006677139609 0.149409029292555
1993Q1 -0.268237695622441 0.174746804102566
1993Q2 -0.271678609868714 0.19655980807062
1993Q3 -0.274897687209255 0.215115460472649
1993Q4 -0.277632283812079 0.23761871155473
1994Q1 -0.280396574976042 0.256900451567916
1994Q2 -0.283858836612519 0.271162219971759
1994Q3 -0.28738309659228 0.279716983902551
1994Q4 -0.291136278463636 0.280377926738278
1995Q1 -0.294609855174828 0.288407812180993
1995Q2 -0.297648711012695 0.288778094622474
1995Q3 -0.300412491768566 0.282543182254859
1995Q4 -0.302331585135053 0.271023585085798
1996Q1 -0.304120360319954 0.260802946892217
1996Q2 -0.306052604922265 0.244863502486056
1996Q3 -0.308241307574153 0.227686452588147
1996Q4 -0.31003312828354 0.212622540223806
1997Q1 -0.311350912977768 0.191676626901785
1997Q2 -0.312551294660203 0.167396957579851
1997Q3 -0.313844117476128 0.145082538342185
1997Q4 -0.315171705744621 0.125817926461035
1998Q1 -0.316323693087031 0.107317602205689
1998Q2 -0.317250283079132 0.0890115665783054
1998Q3 -0.317822269686656 0.0681289515667042
1998Q4 -0.318235533081865 0.0453720469807608
1999Q1 -0.318155860725365 0.0246274070270536
1999Q2 -0.318100010442495 0.00951759714762758
1999Q3 -0.318091078692597 -0.0100498660278088
1999Q4 -0.317933678172696 -0.0326389966785882
2000Q1 -0.317987789533389 -0.0544363027315609
2000Q2 -0.317915145685855 -0.081839486539663
2000Q3 -0.318167438672055 -0.110103693402822
2000Q4 -0.318367862715051 -0.137552677830681
2001Q1 -0.318871514696688 -0.160777095791485
2001Q2 -0.318585918100915 -0.193280941094909
2001Q3 -0.31832092650319 -0.219281282594189
2001Q4 -0.31785913084145 -0.241526036972443
2002Q1 -0.317208704215352 -0.261494359930096
2002Q2 -0.315783421451021 -0.269698867351392
2002Q3 -0.314967694835368 -0.273705292143196
2002Q4 -0.314172614396013 -0.270593920304381
2003Q1 -0.312791202047603 -0.270165267561836
2003Q2 -0.311564135091624 -0.270137727628486
2003Q3 -0.309889807251296 -0.269213200052726
2003Q4 -0.307286850373401 -0.271058093085782
2004Q1 -0.305277106796167 -0.270567834435794
2004Q2 -0.303723355735666 -0.266733202446534
2004Q3 -0.301916883050164 -0.268118210587144
2004Q4 -0.300438395463917 -0.272836459361999
2005Q1 -0.299345879598565 -0.281533930596576
2005Q2 -0.298430539527652 -0.290715834243284
2005Q3 -0.297690235436142 -0.29732712223539
2005Q4 -0.297071118565159 -0.300436988239628
2006Q1 -0.296327994756442 -0.303316488577406
2006Q2 -0.295315588351361 -0.311341016705567
2006Q3 -0.294822433306749 -0.317187814414124
2006Q4 -0.294332940497778 -0.319099213436908
2007Q1 -0.293616082087178 -0.318945055452129
2007Q2 -0.293585271686277 -0.32131749758162
2007Q3 -0.293532941202458 -0.328178804469959
2007Q4 -0.293842941872012 -0.333785056943724
2008Q1 -0.294776175221435 -0.339574280602365
2008Q2 -0.296141894027502 -0.342874852298167
2008Q3 -0.29792340637718 -0.347008194160125
2008Q4 -0.29949754802305 -0.350762137856604
2009Q1 -0.301704679127183 -0.347197371284436
2009Q2 -0.303366498921151 -0.346334620909713
2009Q3 -0.304584800666916 -0.350521139103635
2009Q4 -0.305855468266354 -0.360118397649583
2010Q1 -0.306420824936862 -0.37080309757057
2010Q2 -0.306877674269701 -0.372471256252912
2010Q3 -0.307193568385987 -0.374145113301842
2010Q4 -0.307221603819865 -0.372681098704617
2011Q1 -0.307012261507393 -0.374885121342329
Return to Figure 3c

Figure 3d: I(2) Trend Components

Quarter Trend workweek
1967Q1 -0.464534605308128
1967Q2 -0.467528573130671
1967Q3 -0.468799503649991
1967Q4 -0.469925453548997
1968Q1 -0.471041480814255
1968Q2 -0.47149208507499
1968Q3 -0.472350549404992
1968Q4 -0.473306081898656
1969Q1 -0.472920160412288
1969Q2 -0.472490447686647
1969Q3 -0.471932468095741
1969Q4 -0.471305679346439
1970Q1 -0.470219324484392
1970Q2 -0.468662571362254
1970Q3 -0.466234792326146
1970Q4 -0.463250952377125
1971Q1 -0.460704091135563
1971Q2 -0.458765811241613
1971Q3 -0.456678232229569
1971Q4 -0.454911726937244
1972Q1 -0.454309688564512
1972Q2 -0.454101585375944
1972Q3 -0.454331362165468
1972Q4 -0.454386905606489
1973Q1 -0.45380231540968
1973Q2 -0.452330613281084
1973Q3 -0.451102779604339
1973Q4 -0.449854543848092
1974Q1 -0.448770150780875
1974Q2 -0.445830793916581
1974Q3 -0.442443724919498
1974Q4 -0.439420987617508
1975Q1 -0.436775058182166
1975Q2 -0.434390351842865
1975Q3 -0.431888318603035
1975Q4 -0.429115776797571
1976Q1 -0.427335303588933
1976Q2 -0.426341440876373
1976Q3 -0.423888878887216
1976Q4 -0.421252111999905
1977Q1 -0.417996538746124
1977Q2 -0.413909114905974
1977Q3 -0.409783474739829
1977Q4 -0.405023834681035
1978Q1 -0.399517938244843
1978Q2 -0.391984352434709
1978Q3 -0.386506908685292
1978Q4 -0.381176212198381
1979Q1 -0.375467885477075
1979Q2 -0.368535235482929
1979Q3 -0.36040274335356
1979Q4 -0.353248951782097
1980Q1 -0.346693559703677
1980Q2 -0.339758030274186
1980Q3 -0.332060004371463
1980Q4 -0.323982784689574
1981Q1 -0.316215901923721
1981Q2 -0.309206931578046
1981Q3 -0.301420261756984
1981Q4 -0.293757028046225
1982Q1 -0.287234066705021
1982Q2 -0.280110384253945
1982Q3 -0.27540060735172
1982Q4 -0.272077520995229
1983Q1 -0.269702929891347
1983Q2 -0.267689083474202
1983Q3 -0.265411462924379
1983Q4 -0.264178218696493
1984Q1 -0.262808548308746
1984Q2 -0.262202689495044
1984Q3 -0.262175872526543
1984Q4 -0.261555081889063
1985Q1 -0.260714353487442
1985Q2 -0.260192518741507
1985Q3 -0.260043768034988
1985Q4 -0.259653760225213
1986Q1 -0.258413341970942
1986Q2 -0.256548451604922
1986Q3 -0.253028836820455
1986Q4 -0.248519345263271
1987Q1 -0.244254078546678
1987Q2 -0.241170439890351
1987Q3 -0.237774145677821
1987Q4 -0.234253712408863
1988Q1 -0.230992427061619
1988Q2 -0.226201483994846
1988Q3 -0.221549212234684
1988Q4 -0.216819871287908
1989Q1 -0.213226328094507
1989Q2 -0.210651808978484
1989Q3 -0.208972837827679
1989Q4 -0.208036504136344
1990Q1 -0.206032786266976
1990Q2 -0.20296974462924
1990Q3 -0.198586491578455
1990Q4 -0.193673612299471
1991Q1 -0.18915866453663
1991Q2 -0.184519091137235
1991Q3 -0.179816843908988
1991Q4 -0.175715649895157
1992Q1 -0.172212863956136
1992Q2 -0.169693780586288
1992Q3 -0.168266574204357
1992Q4 -0.167052842369707
1993Q1 -0.166130244510553
1993Q2 -0.165285427738297
1993Q3 -0.165610628295319
1993Q4 -0.16589928093172
1994Q1 -0.166353078158941
1994Q2 -0.166119909929551
1994Q3 -0.167401894375042
1994Q4 -0.168743921411057
1995Q1 -0.170071264275868
1995Q2 -0.170686875444658
1995Q3 -0.170823330397516
1995Q4 -0.171823458018315
1996Q1 -0.172125697603134
1996Q2 -0.170140463786487
1996Q3 -0.168401532655931
1996Q4 -0.167005019822882
1997Q1 -0.166643560555054
1997Q2 -0.167460844366202
1997Q3 -0.168528737553354
1997Q4 -0.169882354555039
1998Q1 -0.170781222732303
1998Q2 -0.171555732349798
1998Q3 -0.171621396267582
1998Q4 -0.171492686748082
1999Q1 -0.173618482690711
1999Q2 -0.175819908481913
1999Q3 -0.17821261676285
1999Q4 -0.180866528184209
2000Q1 -0.183186335935689
2000Q2 -0.184519672511563
2000Q3 -0.185100132608347
2000Q4 -0.184884516789323
2001Q1 -0.183771382986673
2001Q2 -0.181325974925354
2001Q3 -0.178321367701827
2001Q4 -0.175070057502646
2002Q1 -0.172122644392995
2002Q2 -0.16967832034408
2002Q3 -0.168056233103677
2002Q4 -0.166225751605768
2003Q1 -0.164271006053359
2003Q2 -0.161531157640112
2003Q3 -0.158936079877813
2003Q4 -0.155649266268297
2004Q1 -0.152539118342972
2004Q2 -0.150076961381612
2004Q3 -0.14613582126231
2004Q4 -0.141987983777387
2005Q1 -0.138021136600045
2005Q2 -0.133535113507484
2005Q3 -0.12940011771822
2005Q4 -0.12496704285567
2006Q1 -0.120932565259399
2006Q2 -0.11704233478303
2006Q3 -0.11317707917073
2006Q4 -0.110052710859075
2007Q1 -0.106672278921885
2007Q2 -0.102841824320974
2007Q3 -0.0992274891343693
2007Q4 -0.0954948751600783
2008Q1 -0.0914264022436432
2008Q2 -0.0876390828882081
2008Q3 -0.0846860624461872
2008Q4 -0.0819981101475834
2009Q1 -0.0792832975042797
2009Q2 -0.0762384037039047
2009Q3 -0.0726518349093583
2009Q4 -0.0684852777212216
2010Q1 -0.0652863031805136
2010Q2 -0.0630438156541583
2010Q3 -0.0628103634268933
2010Q4 -0.0640809562613364
2011Q1 -0.0652659167332963
Return to Figure 3d

Figure 4: The NAIRU and the Unemployment Rate

Quarter Unemployment Rate NAIRU NAIRU with EEB Effect
1967Q1 3.94692655163898 5.64039678212497 5.64039678212497
1967Q2 3.94366654032306 5.57128471612816 5.57128471612816
1967Q3 3.92127795370947 5.50193869334635 5.50193869334635
1967Q4 4.05179247142266 5.5045980358565 5.5045980358565
1968Q1 3.86456822420446 5.45099096246342 5.45099096246342
1968Q2 3.67450060245935 5.44079479001441 5.44079479001441
1968Q3 3.6471701897683 5.50994538913402 5.50994538913402
1968Q4 3.52899530187126 5.52610654390661 5.52610654390661
1969Q1 3.51370316908852 5.58911173583301 5.58911173583301
1969Q2 3.56089710325078 5.61691311936311 5.61691311936311
1969Q3 3.72613155555783 5.65280219434821 5.65280219434821
1969Q4 3.71712126186861 5.57551264510426 5.57551264510426
1970Q1 4.29174104137562 5.6245860636735 5.6245860636735
1970Q2 4.87552354650559 5.69079592957693 5.69079592957693
1970Q3 5.29507701271406 5.68773085031904 5.68773085031904
1970Q4 5.92470995164179 5.78343502994733 5.78343502994733
1971Q1 6.03469295841734 5.7296737498844 5.75157187863651
1971Q2 6.02701095473099 5.68775636189651 5.77399540636688
1971Q3 6.10109246085108 5.74219942647062 5.8269906413517
1971Q4 6.07130152557587 5.7610004657517 5.84409079023434
1972Q1 5.92080759768266 5.77167246176928 5.82985814828366
1972Q2 5.8108836856288 5.79109686884958 5.85073266938767
1972Q3 5.73602878741115 5.85107550077781 5.89983848736514
1972Q4 5.45648824043509 5.87156105987993 5.9141882149905
1973Q1 5.10286378889547 5.94118435262924 5.95408615522771
1973Q2 5.04182463569122 6.0336573461519 6.04625883801869
1973Q3 4.9448993185009 6.0766610982626 6.08908813848663
1973Q4 4.92057008132899 5.97459474434796 5.98717583005575
1974Q1 5.2348315893101 6.02156696975707 6.06027030950286
1974Q2 5.31046408430386 5.91741674282694 5.95785175011194
1974Q3 5.73080146854991 5.85348647823256 5.8946937975165
1974Q4 6.69980503670873 5.85363484037179 5.90536267848747
1975Q1 8.3546353465176 6.04957378537649 6.24635764189588
1975Q2 8.96326510671201 6.03049248239397 6.28446706903285
1975Q3 8.60247094156053 5.88327786214555 6.15933508587074
1975Q4 8.39429047991981 5.93354674602279 6.14632102335062
1976Q1 7.85930639106197 5.86428919593465 6.08743328682639
1976Q2 7.6627075972653 5.85523994414876 6.06484467307591
1976Q3 7.83472127266232 5.92470871671348 6.17388655475076
1976Q4 7.86720363650224 5.96902695951849 6.18042955904485
1977Q1 7.62708797542419 5.96136448347285 6.14710093591599
1977Q2 7.23968657763694 5.94485429722906 6.08912645786558
1977Q3 6.99955315809132 5.99818053137867 6.14055913809803
1977Q4 6.74822220634382 5.9758504026369 6.10600306554518
1978Q1 6.45234069355455 5.9514947846099 6.04021931113578
1978Q2 6.12545703120822 5.99573743148621 6.05407588554915
1978Q3 6.14728340750334 6.16374870574128 6.19535257025104
1978Q4 6.00986132005826 6.21028341856655 6.22048761610982
1979Q1 6.00362319630938 6.20533009993036 6.21521340085986
1979Q2 5.8398817242844 6.103495645977 6.11792482200292
1979Q3 5.99392620908714 6.12136587329078 6.13071769546392
1979Q4 6.06539106079507 6.09906861998569 6.11272735132723
1980Q1 6.42230365220845 6.06307044427711 6.08082780349795
1980Q2 7.44988512383994 6.22854703109233 6.27182783671746
1980Q3 7.80917994413602 6.2343897450153 6.3233133276142
1980Q4 7.53023661376181 6.14573951682092 6.26154955580266
1981Q1 7.56090892775966 6.20266219490991 6.30744065693635
1981Q2 7.53602476293482 6.12338816749157 6.19018510251169
1981Q3 7.55717025677961 6.02491290050883 6.05173128116102
1981Q4 8.38151640017749 6.21310550439332 6.22433842792761
1982Q1 8.98498346915276 6.2682250639182 6.30869793671286
1982Q2 9.56795860428207 6.30841455759995 6.42434438759617
1982Q3 10.0859363762547 6.38117856344604 6.49206119639459
1982Q4 10.8194731548814 6.50620026304827 6.74537405944695
1983Q1 10.5429649799592 6.39350762098694 6.68305508536733
1983Q2 10.2513062562234 6.44380563044022 6.81655546928369
1983Q3 9.5142516174472 6.48188617282673 6.66600953082659
1983Q4 8.70139350788276 6.34584252701327 6.49280517086875
1984Q1 8.03658185661462 6.24772916860196 6.35396737946528
1984Q2 7.64771382245578 6.22049758999171 6.2922912026236
1984Q3 7.62373417440863 6.2658598350525 6.32454694270216
1984Q4 7.45814699195116 6.24631071399777 6.30126016935091
1985Q1 7.45768084515928 6.26297121176828 6.3207683970015
1985Q2 7.46920365242625 6.28670105983087 6.32069680485224
1985Q3 7.39393258370015 6.25318997345317 6.25364977285983
1985Q4 7.24099516451965 6.16424368533323 6.16424368533323
1986Q1 7.18686554930066 6.16087968959436 6.16366141851662
1986Q2 7.35315613534184 6.21554162449387 6.21828145574477
1986Q3 7.16606257203227 6.11244979826691 6.11785860529061
1986Q4 7.0124594349137 6.06584765513548 6.07118402323865
1987Q1 6.80033287219114 6.01819981024585 6.02345945114273
1987Q2 6.46304332561427 5.94169325894823 5.94428216077975
1987Q3 6.19891201611528 5.88001302249619 5.88001302249619
1987Q4 6.05593387167246 5.87503295006451 5.87503295006451
1988Q1 5.91678658580038 5.87261934134689 5.87261934134689
1988Q2 5.67878692864622 5.84119237975707 5.84119237975707
1988Q3 5.68605011372176 5.93569020300876 5.93569020300876
1988Q4 5.54611462564153 5.9681765592704 5.9681765592704
1989Q1 5.41351181738184 5.90060147660371 5.90060147660371
1989Q2 5.44446574205905 5.8762556957837 5.8762556957837
1989Q3 5.47912068601982 5.87538649842911 5.87538649842911
1989Q4 5.57721181767775 5.85407844577459 5.85407844577459
1990Q1 5.43181675738827 5.71192699702446 5.71192699702446
1990Q2 5.46870771561115 5.64359229117455 5.64359229117455
1990Q3 5.81823577293837 5.64793978593423 5.64793978593423
1990Q4 6.2436470519215 5.62707568152708 5.62707568152708
1991Q1 6.70311705624598 5.61708832132476 5.61708832132476
1991Q2 6.95185128862595 5.57782455277598 5.59404402539162
1991Q3 6.98155613668006 5.49106230398601 5.49509234253904
1991Q4 7.22414376751785 5.4526146798068 5.51372710792895
1992Q1 7.50573482217285 5.45779482200346 5.72251692321816
1992Q2 7.72051950787524 5.48349756240795 5.76392527954214
1992Q3 7.75206694887801 5.49008488929377 5.73496928832216
1992Q4 7.53200020577327 5.46589425699744 5.71529031418564
1993Q1 7.27591812027648 5.41100281094882 5.65465754380906
1993Q2 7.1950082837447 5.42821076855867 5.65540149142413
1993Q3 6.92617066537583 5.38650784646098 5.61359700018599
1993Q4 6.74602751697349 5.37800087261879 5.56176417885307
1994Q1 6.58079662040234 5.41157980200302 5.50930860830007
1994Q2 6.19109507009246 5.3767488692566 5.40673999845225
1994Q3 6.02708840370132 5.38411986684182 5.38607126434918
1994Q4 5.64586923524309 5.35963031364052 5.36134987701076
1995Q1 5.50470832925891 5.33170679144859 5.33340471964873
1995Q2 5.70086315184709 5.41668874827614 5.41668874827614
1995Q3 5.6845963881557 5.45004382986903 5.45004382986903
1995Q4 5.59837909254713 5.45374642799247 5.45374642799247
1996Q1 5.5717986395967 5.41937078644266 5.41937078644266
1996Q2 5.49661937609651 5.42726242138456 5.42726242138456
1996Q3 5.2863027406339 5.43361927847092 5.43361927847092
1996Q4 5.33708457337968 5.51688993201845 5.51688993201845
1997Q1 5.24161285257625 5.51575795933538 5.51575795933538
1997Q2 4.99371944480178 5.4438428390451 5.4438428390451
1997Q3 4.87526998394171 5.43325322450185 5.43325322450185
1997Q4 4.70485882163842 5.40941174519447 5.40941174519447
1998Q1 4.62869572084221 5.42047267316067 5.42047267316067
1998Q2 4.40447019697851 5.35414530153321 5.35414530153321
1998Q3 4.51894065702816 5.42231250986834 5.42231250986834
1998Q4 4.4197494355596 5.44498224455122 5.44498224455122
1999Q1 4.27430555040402 5.46039091386772 5.46039091386772
1999Q2 4.2381467158895 5.45821703880289 5.45821703880289
1999Q3 4.23320809170395 5.48684553510124 5.48684553510124
1999Q4 4.06732430778273 5.47830405522008 5.47830405522008
2000Q1 4.04979902003245 5.47396927861683 5.47396927861683
2000Q2 3.94802850603652 5.42809906222915 5.42809906222915
2000Q3 4.02900933227238 5.4548642684433 5.4548642684433
2000Q4 3.91657915471216 5.38095901289262 5.38095901289262
2001Q1 4.22686452670014 5.37998559706142 5.37998559706142
2001Q2 4.40679365119708 5.34919716925286 5.34919716925286
2001Q3 4.81437715913594 5.31261841339071 5.31261841339071
2001Q4 5.53153942677604 5.3813749989908 5.38252465754416
2002Q1 5.69855542053327 5.38839302452675 5.40399701655114
2002Q2 5.8377531983446 5.33193718055395 5.52092025223391
2002Q3 5.72217573588129 5.28307228399219 5.44418519723541
2002Q4 5.8407811250003 5.29214964060041 5.41813128475908
2003Q1 5.86867068260829 5.24813293135336 5.35932348349639
2003Q2 6.14787715244509 5.33134651061853 5.45882259809474
2003Q3 6.10183221874496 5.3601416635799 5.48804106835447
2003Q4 5.81267421992198 5.32339651962284 5.44785207574211
2004Q1 5.67695204340199 5.35644798697459 5.413283900515
2004Q2 5.58341986759844 5.38745539129611 5.39196330532379
2004Q3 5.42702353477204 5.38939069088801 5.39205325669514
2004Q4 5.38084578901639 5.40485513207843 5.40703183468842
2005Q1 5.27557909353413 5.41079916775674 5.41185192900696
2005Q2 5.09705376406911 5.37893737229267 5.37993647523951
2005Q3 4.95468422924219 5.37315185283371 5.37413768812687
2005Q4 4.9422792801469 5.44767000820061 5.44864231151623
2006Q1 4.70697280739927 5.43759065872925 5.43854840502018
2006Q2 4.64062057159069 5.46357263200552 5.46451642087388
2006Q3 4.62777514302984 5.49616001327633 5.49709208728469
2006Q4 4.43665226970966 5.47081090812571 5.47172941680428
2007Q1 4.49381070228252 5.46795141947396 5.4688577532133
2007Q2 4.47241992069919 5.43494729753927 5.43584229990713
2007Q3 4.64713245187081 5.48353908567217 5.48442256628318
2007Q4 4.79738431447514 5.48276943399925 5.48364353109891
2008Q1 4.94379915416704 5.46898358473691 5.46984838157846
2008Q2 5.30871092779299 5.47995939839067 5.48081710051244
2008Q3 6.03311055731496 5.51261089247651 5.63785814271491
2008Q4 6.90954846130831 5.53083673971623 5.67333316618744
2009Q1 8.22596309844731 5.63854504768835 5.89312370052093
2009Q2 9.29032947217386 5.74650178059629 6.09707638640858
2009Q3 9.69443346529232 5.67394604925179 6.1860963682828
2009Q4 10.0115393095044 5.76308177060129 6.35545726770682
2010Q1 9.69859702120237 5.70134117057293 6.42612069226703
2010Q2 9.65773155312074 5.80664357834596 6.43983555838211
2010Q3 9.58722945329042 5.8945379319703 6.5260582975958
2010Q4 9.62959597029724 6.01828490945526 6.59734298846178
2011Q1 8.93314602099 5.8693295547819 6.40074762428895
Return to Figure 4

Figure 5: Cycle Estimate from 4-Variable Model

Quarter Baseline model Four-variable model
1967Q1 3.08939188631376 3.8451689506312
1967Q2 2.92215935421121 3.74964862286741
1967Q3 2.79513415141454 3.75475222022695
1967Q4 2.69318346504378 3.67523638384353
1968Q1 3.02138894401189 4.13520048269434
1968Q2 3.3594459643821 4.53555398517863
1968Q3 3.53865749028537 4.6049063342241
1968Q4 3.76181319606856 4.62020302120923
1969Q1 3.91968495483219 4.67360210400128
1969Q2 3.80967383754314 4.51035702495717
1969Q3 3.64515399136842 4.30802654831732
1969Q4 3.07855225745865 3.83651091623657
1970Q1 2.092601713593 2.63547912151219
1970Q2 1.0707158804779 1.59906572928642
1970Q3 0.424453444807735 0.899541940682517
1970Q4 -0.683224717025889 -0.298654228482902
1971Q1 -0.461434934488626 -0.0668948380767216
1971Q2 -0.490505121010577 -0.112931093150976
1971Q3 -0.569797039262049 -0.25389045996211
1971Q4 -0.386345512491548 -0.195741343788673
1972Q1 0.0251998110989241 0.141005421834277
1972Q2 0.114881349697535 0.427217524089383
1972Q3 0.39439923866191 0.666518313399802
1972Q4 1.09617563685035 1.42081796653714
1973Q1 1.99756496992203 2.11835092940637
1973Q2 2.0163499848949 2.14841506557847
1973Q3 2.26475745370942 2.02218192397339
1973Q4 1.73345841239498 2.06125415529425
1974Q1 1.46360902789923 1.33855898672992
1974Q2 1.02261686326934 0.894259633156859
1974Q3 -0.243269903591034 -0.353853964551239
1974Q4 -2.50800362056792 -2.68084730127325
1975Q1 -4.99807712049133 -5.34067956022953
1975Q2 -5.28407061728403 -5.76963890988143
1975Q3 -4.50055345760907 -4.77507615179475
1975Q4 -3.86822567341577 -4.18609522404822
1976Q1 -3.04486226632552 -3.27251245620503
1976Q2 -3.09142343145853 -3.23627676371272
1976Q3 -3.24677792100646 -3.58671620412773
1976Q4 -3.15286949864578 -3.61073439857213
1977Q1 -2.60215944255133 -3.10534135132399
1977Q2 -1.85804439733498 -2.19299670273022
1977Q3 -1.31780912341569 -1.58018494077761
1977Q4 -1.14973665617012 -1.33083034957925
1978Q1 -0.729285927828698 -0.989053400448905
1978Q2 0.2431352337119 -0.0282222174526774
1978Q3 0.178033529046083 -0.0869305302302846
1978Q4 0.541208971421427 0.0951739530009685
1979Q1 0.496772160457985 0.162636982598154
1979Q2 0.427678483297885 0.0728231170159528
1979Q3 0.250216058205367 -0.18638557173311
1979Q4 -0.131404394905965 -0.496940479173739
1980Q1 -1.13976841207498 -1.47127379098002
1980Q2 -2.83204674538278 -3.46073013240447
1980Q3 -2.91310946262376 -3.81822717044721
1980Q4 -2.16183821222638 -2.94306918132348
1981Q1 -2.3340722594653 -2.80565581849674
1981Q2 -2.76482829007491 -3.14090751181478
1981Q3 -3.23163118807255 -3.32348368482232
1981Q4 -4.51752113004047 -5.03820249969684
1982Q1 -5.66715755584914 -6.41956158229396
1982Q2 -6.31364411158611 -7.29236982093851
1982Q3 -7.37756948731899 -8.39485361738284
1982Q4 -8.07120568121914 -9.36445578525006
1983Q1 -7.31427687668468 -8.67661859843301
1983Q2 -6.0790051831461 -7.60910220744803
1983Q3 -4.88754761257971 -6.19219043627081
1983Q4 -3.73114528157985 -4.69174576399577
1984Q1 -2.87380741289041 -3.52570740678087
1984Q2 -2.44595970520168 -2.9489160212
1984Q3 -2.3743995215254 -2.90336230129059
1984Q4 -2.16650318260678 -2.73115388799211
1985Q1 -2.11922574573464 -2.71770269888701
1985Q2 -2.12245692006367 -2.73277820950874
1985Q3 -2.11148435617709 -2.45545958223013
1985Q4 -2.00768132946367 -2.31053772984297
1986Q1 -2.01990904074513 -2.26349253456626
1986Q2 -2.11076879400474 -2.49825409823115
1986Q3 -1.93246175599915 -2.19411608007339
1986Q4 -1.63850890052343 -1.89688497307208
1987Q1 -1.2889671248223 -1.52706433419895
1987Q2 -0.803796104795974 -0.899938719012003
1987Q3 -0.540140343265383 -0.466886203558273
1987Q4 -0.194235430838201 -0.117361381128496
1988Q1 -0.0166915205902744 0.113467045323999
1988Q2 0.482752206180276 0.462896015521093
1988Q3 0.556208710060108 0.479220207147335
1988Q4 1.01581306708666 0.817331230681468
1989Q1 0.892618887651729 0.941249052025235
1989Q2 0.732230549691729 0.729049666640613
1989Q3 0.676645489465699 0.631538354168163
1989Q4 0.534800934309159 0.482468477274078
1990Q1 0.479599392831998 0.70073627878479
1990Q2 0.133817469113273 0.496187169903406
1990Q3 -0.610581082998397 -0.313387713540145
1990Q4 -1.54622817600752 -1.34443718278739
1991Q1 -2.37956776280082 -2.14234924235712
1991Q2 -2.66414257895476 -2.43840463126389
1991Q3 -2.96404741248021 -2.66255333093801
1991Q4 -3.3830207063161 -3.21264907824025
1992Q1 -3.56128846821748 -3.53582043034213
1992Q2 -3.79325948598248 -3.77581881633533
1992Q3 -3.81156766817021 -3.73862555956776
1992Q4 -3.22620274134778 -3.28313239764685
1993Q1 -2.9948700856761 -3.07544095918759
1993Q2 -2.69546705004927 -2.84014282793061
1993Q3 -2.42319851314425 -2.58704742055453
1993Q4 -2.15340363997165 -2.14680422531949
1994Q1 -1.83723002689229 -1.77288576390689
1994Q2 -1.28559867618209 -1.1488667282991
1994Q3 -0.914442961553666 -0.787832229801284
1994Q4 -0.41018342163216 -0.259686537000771
1995Q1 -0.341411347638437 -0.26970299319135
1995Q2 -0.575545454879756 -0.620580721691141
1995Q3 -0.269750291356711 -0.522309940739649
1995Q4 -0.275907816271104 -0.451880557882777
1996Q1 -0.293703108750409 -0.388827919575701
1996Q2 0.00891090359650804 -0.0739977116300978
1996Q3 0.298741363974395 0.119054782512286
1996Q4 0.503704332066452 0.139032656184401
1997Q1 0.667456483915091 0.328511280183995
1997Q2 0.902660870305495 0.759661486024935
1997Q3 1.1368129222883 1.07710959324285
1997Q4 1.39532779952706 1.31056804995028
1998Q1 1.60261680461329 1.47977061673527
1998Q2 1.73833441677157 1.73202839318547
1998Q3 1.74504909840557 1.72981336721956
1998Q4 2.05414759843721 1.94141334708061
1999Q1 2.23973935231927 2.19770402316086
1999Q2 2.27742203872006 2.18810550549743
1999Q3 2.44584582736446 2.25246672881352
1999Q4 2.67206790984108 2.64174684898548
2000Q1 2.73776951611397 2.80675470772784
2000Q2 2.6891553420566 2.94244330115968
2000Q3 2.76343069030847 2.80895479939946
2000Q4 2.46927456643583 2.67855832288362
2001Q1 2.10467408338574 2.26167134589372
2001Q2 1.47742264544061 1.70647569631912
2001Q3 0.396140564521699 0.69695010294179
2001Q4 -0.623459359712724 -0.404318376281478
2002Q1 -0.588934737485061 -0.463990829833217
2002Q2 -0.573059773145466 -0.505652011689274
2002Q3 -0.651181897276578 -0.518368995170236
2002Q4 -0.803463663704592 -0.773269719773864
2003Q1 -1.19183721282956 -1.0148375570845
2003Q2 -1.3628156631637 -1.22809371792258
2003Q3 -0.904601714390257 -0.924325890948012
2003Q4 -0.576443079629047 -0.418956771635108
2004Q1 -0.500375413180695 -0.183821120920832
2004Q2 -0.209752050224534 0.0159099907153713
2004Q3 0.0267365325873374 0.268343913796343
2004Q4 0.127556715887253 0.39213065085055
2005Q1 0.416722686365302 0.689303272328187
2005Q2 0.600225879726461 0.948904811769273
2005Q3 0.786822168550405 1.13763298418791
2005Q4 1.09942381510139 1.30324684474449
2006Q1 1.5867224581885 1.79777076602306
2006Q2 1.54808702132345 1.83870368324591
2006Q3 1.70696918252034 1.85545279824694
2006Q4 2.00328792022096 2.12264184564882
2007Q1 1.73060033117611 1.88964556768193
2007Q2 1.77547437501497 1.83343636197855
2007Q3 1.46633990430353 1.50699618286883
2007Q4 1.17790556313502 1.27092402084885
2008Q1 0.771811537714907 0.936789506150464
2008Q2 -0.00768195122360626 0.177558925014287
2008Q3 -1.18088175372828 -1.26425015280281
2008Q4 -3.35619964930414 -3.48991233228646
2009Q1 -5.31442104238074 -5.88070959738945
2009Q2 -6.57278166994053 -7.3899050724923
2009Q3 -7.0777732926919 -7.85737239298946
2009Q4 -6.77935072476156 -7.86509318733278
2010Q1 -6.24210069152555 -7.24478382083018
2010Q2 -6.05806997798658 -7.08498950901504
2010Q3 -5.87219786443991 -6.99075407543391
2010Q4 -5.42408594537864 -6.74311999630714
2011Q1 -4.64051381754847 -5.74229411955381
Return to Figure 5

Figure 6a: Comparison of Three- and Four-Variable Models

Quarter Four-variable model Three-variable model
2000Q1 2.80675470772784 2.42961161066874
2000Q2 2.94244330115968 2.72123901995434
2000Q3 2.80895479939946 2.54071135011603
2000Q4 2.67855832288362 2.49193500075719
2001Q1 2.26167134589372 1.89863801812252
2001Q2 1.70647569631912 1.42173351161617
2001Q3 0.69695010294179 0.4903762667893
2001Q4 -0.404318376281478 -0.483056244169988
2002Q1 -0.463990829833217 -0.593568160238901
2002Q2 -0.505652011689274 -0.610906907502505
2002Q3 -0.518368995170236 -0.526282150799811
2002Q4 -0.773269719773864 -0.849587255505453
2003Q1 -1.0148375570845 -1.08883044867431
2003Q2 -1.22809371792258 -1.29299515807733
2003Q3 -0.924325890948012 -0.883059273860392
2003Q4 -0.418956771635108 -0.385631988629787
2004Q1 -0.183821120920832 -0.170423638719186
2004Q2 0.0159099907153713 -0.0243458049061618
2004Q3 0.268343913796343 0.189375157570351
2004Q4 0.39213065085055 0.350642753197124
2005Q1 0.689303272328187 0.635885436150259
2005Q2 0.948904811769273 0.86933015007673
2005Q3 1.13763298418791 1.0763814876506
2005Q4 1.30324684474449 1.17242109420877
2006Q1 1.79777076602306 1.60362202334381
2006Q2 1.83870368324591 1.69455562513936
2006Q3 1.85545279824694 1.64625285522347
2006Q4 2.12264184564882 1.8788798819843
2007Q1 1.88964556768193 1.7568581309602
2007Q2 1.83343636197855 1.76400393619491
2007Q3 1.50699618286883 1.59371690830905
2007Q4 1.27092402084885 1.34722417095688
2008Q1 0.936789506150464 0.88149605794605
2008Q2 0.177558925014287 0.207664334548044
2008Q3 -1.26425015280281 -1.27513814522614
2008Q4 -3.48991233228646 -3.42166254916908
2009Q1 -5.88070959738945 -5.722272632444
2009Q2 -7.3899050724923 -7.12819111714356
2009Q3 -7.85737239298946 -7.46532220493059
2009Q4 -7.86509318733278 -7.45505865519775
2010Q1 -7.24478382083018 -6.90670135244161
2010Q2 -7.08498950901504 -6.75360490600521
2010Q3 -6.99075407543391 -6.62305063160372
2010Q4 -6.74311999630714 -6.35554562832292
2011Q1 -5.74229411955381 -5.38402165738302
Return to Figure 6a

Figure 6b: Comparison of Three- and Four-Variable Models

Quarter Four-variable model Three-variable model
2000Q1 4.07948571269014 3.73751816084996
2000Q2 4.23646928657342 4.31912028035413
2000Q3 3.94486948836447 3.62971051910449
2000Q4 3.06907422723316 2.92815841854986
2001Q1 2.80802105332464 2.77738361888703
2001Q2 2.51227265084265 2.39469823266722
2001Q3 2.48899815238838 2.72809304992427
2001Q4 2.99819438304485 3.36547464031776
2002Q1 3.16897846718064 3.93736811657971
2002Q2 3.1513942370791 3.49891578594327
2002Q3 2.78050076493423 3.18297747885231
2002Q4 2.46021256625829 2.35998533345651
2003Q1 2.03890284724355 2.07930309058884
2003Q2 2.46926091366595 2.51857870006597
2003Q3 3.00319778194262 3.20067924719615
2003Q4 2.99684597017369 3.28696282556621
2004Q1 2.93541210390333 3.07384974994716
2004Q2 2.55244989804851 2.55272828518957
2004Q3 2.43598916650592 1.96911033538458
2004Q4 2.52899925370934 2.1287366155027
2005Q1 2.67949131318403 2.35812864776824
2005Q2 2.4632148873776 2.1597817701014
2005Q3 2.37623590566989 2.16441593597222
2005Q4 2.47952704048203 1.98433359998546
2006Q1 2.64556554200328 2.03210669404268
2006Q2 2.60465942886424 2.07748029245465
2006Q3 2.36683521648911 1.66425601922435
2006Q4 2.02878748386206 1.59692194017748
2007Q1 1.16647297479699 1.19977301444055
2007Q2 1.21469282876933 1.68501865320388
2007Q3 1.26622205773151 2.42044368484108
2007Q4 1.45179639270043 2.65805989910598
2008Q1 2.01632165801857 2.50337630736817
2008Q2 2.24176877058198 2.53819032132299
2008Q3 2.46317140742667 2.19754909759808
2008Q4 1.80679717912324 1.53844491809969
2009Q1 1.80869938632372 1.92929364605709
2009Q2 2.11321224508697 2.18244080528166
2009Q3 2.26489169517549 2.46744479708173
2009Q4 3.29673392054315 3.35577674793569
2010Q1 3.40842231985914 3.28338485996562
2010Q2 3.150386529505 2.88327966584279
2010Q3 2.89394065039278 2.5612931195833
2010Q4 2.17594824391233 1.92876729231614
2011Q1 1.10255924053502 0.82181278109158
Return to Figure 6b

Figure 7: Cycle Estimate from No-Phillips Curve Model

Quarter Cycle: Baseline Model Cycle: No-Phillips Curve Model Upper 90 percentile No-Phillips Curve Model Lower 90 percentile No-Phillips Curve Model
1967Q1 3.08939188631376 2.00682590104125 3.48489839972476 0.528753402357746
1967Q2 2.92215935421121 1.8098622735175 3.29562054741851 0.324103999616485
1967Q3 2.79513415141454 1.66063033730802 3.15391232087369 0.167348353742355
1967Q4 2.69318346504378 1.54966243971273 3.05030398739489 0.0490208920305792
1968Q1 3.02138894401189 1.88314151068133 3.39097725171247 0.37530576965019
1968Q2 3.3594459643821 2.24347804209385 3.7583421069499 0.728613977237796
1968Q3 3.53865749028537 2.45059665124007 3.97232328593059 0.928870016549543
1968Q4 3.76181319606856 2.69389266639888 4.22231674971451 1.16546858308326
1969Q1 3.91968495483219 2.88192496453892 4.41688244212325 1.34696748695459
1969Q2 3.80967383754314 2.78945829271449 4.33078654037895 1.24813004505003
1969Q3 3.64515399136842 2.64710084821254 4.19463897540458 1.09956272102049
1969Q4 3.07855225745865 2.09111598416697 3.64470508703614 0.537526881297804
1970Q1 2.092601713593 1.13036588069239 2.68984925282648 -0.429117491441701
1970Q2 1.0707158804779 0.150553389555182 1.71577669721532 -1.41466991810495
1970Q3 0.424453444807735 -0.45664669199682 1.11416473558603 -2.02745811957967
1970Q4 -0.683224717025889 -1.51852984691942 0.0577205235777336 -3.09478021741658
1971Q1 -0.461434934488626 -1.26870304818016 0.312839826225336 -2.85024592258566
1971Q2 -0.490505121010577 -1.23978319269729 0.346908566226842 -2.82647495162142
1971Q3 -0.569797039262049 -1.24499530597843 0.346704604189424 -2.83669521614628
1971Q4 -0.386345512491548 -1.0284217234326 0.56814854440205 -2.62499199126725
1972Q1 0.0251998110989241 -0.592999026246986 1.00830678784856 -2.19430484034253
1972Q2 0.114881349697535 -0.464522989716463 1.14138657425243 -2.07043255368535
1972Q3 0.39439923866191 -0.145466528018019 1.46491802890301 -1.75585108493905
1972Q4 1.09617563685035 0.571978086054746 2.18671193553757 -1.04275576342807
1973Q1 1.99756496992203 1.50646229143301 3.12542280014943 -0.112498217283416
1973Q2 2.0163499848949 1.55235507186507 3.17542267826384 -0.0707125345337098
1973Q3 2.26475745370942 1.81972894120191 3.44678715501909 0.192670727384736
1973Q4 1.73345841239498 1.2690883508563 2.90002374794871 -0.361847046236113
1974Q1 1.46360902789923 1.02173967820213 2.6564418911672 -0.612962534762942
1974Q2 1.02261686326934 0.5847323217368 2.22309402672789 -1.05362938325429
1974Q3 -0.243269903591034 -0.663287902000424 0.978628998105966 -2.30520480210681
1974Q4 -2.50800362056792 -2.86597131512419 -1.22060050959743 -4.51134212065094
1975Q1 -4.99807712049133 -5.2733569167316 -3.6246305107755 -6.92208332268769
1975Q2 -5.28407061728403 -5.52473819354869 -3.87275153246834 -7.17672485462903
1975Q3 -4.50055345760907 -4.73247111754106 -3.07731661421109 -6.38762562087103
1975Q4 -3.86822567341577 -4.06748076780149 -2.40924793190838 -5.7257136036946
1976Q1 -3.04486226632552 -3.20696751463411 -1.54574298366677 -4.86819204560145
1976Q2 -3.09142343145853 -3.19892998939896 -1.53479756116336 -4.86306241763456
1976Q3 -3.24677792100646 -3.30419468689821 -1.63723535334165 -4.97115402045477
1976Q4 -3.15286949864578 -3.17943969922249 -1.5097316813651 -4.84914771707988
1977Q1 -2.60215944255133 -2.60361995730965 -0.931238741090772 -4.27600117352853
1977Q2 -1.85804439733498 -1.83941706041058 -0.164435433266986 -3.51439868755418
1977Q3 -1.31780912341569 -1.27796952684674 0.39954238515034 -2.95548143884382
1977Q4 -1.14973665617012 -1.11833794004284 0.561636754569524 -2.7983126346552
1978Q1 -0.729285927828698 -0.696958229935322 0.985414331114747 -2.37933079098539
1978Q2 0.2431352337119 0.290947967936113 1.97565602743974 -1.39376009156751
1978Q3 0.178033529046083 0.26258805821533 1.94957175855788 -1.42439564212722
1978Q4 0.541208971421427 0.631856685598105 2.32105864188191 -1.0573452706857
1979Q1 0.496772160457985 0.577903056153855 2.26926831883891 -1.1134622065312
1979Q2 0.427678483297885 0.500614082803188 2.19409010075325 -1.19286193514688
1979Q3 0.250216058205367 0.335630450710457 2.0311670347503 -1.35990613332938
1979Q4 -0.131404394905965 -0.0447905926595565 1.65275869442269 -1.74233987974181
1980Q1 -1.13976841207498 -1.04542198197641 0.65409443609599 -2.7449384000488
1980Q2 -2.83204674538278 -2.6787428053308 -0.97730257167272 -4.38018303898888
1980Q3 -2.91310946262376 -2.7431364000915 -1.03981344308808 -4.44645935709492
1980Q4 -2.16183821222638 -1.99066019040675 -0.285493411681737 -3.69582696913176
1981Q1 -2.3340722594653 -2.14905167242685 -0.442077814532104 -3.8560255303216
1981Q2 -2.76482829007491 -2.6021742226694 -0.893427899564819 -4.31092054577399
1981Q3 -3.23163118807255 -3.0732244021564 -1.36273812856905 -4.78371067574376
1981Q4 -4.51752113004047 -4.29877219879746 -2.58657641840694 -6.01096797918797
1982Q1 -5.66715755584914 -5.40880717235066 -3.69493028475392 -7.12268405994739
1982Q2 -6.31364411158611 -6.03409468987255 -4.31856307628355 -7.74962630346154
1982Q3 -7.37756948731899 -7.06305796155386 -5.34589600919834 -8.78021991390939
1982Q4 -8.07120568121914 -7.72051579289886 -6.00174591806677 -9.43928566773094
1983Q1 -7.31427687668468 -6.95125496313991 -5.23089763286264 -8.67161229341717
1983Q2 -6.0790051831461 -5.68561190078282 -3.96368565310316 -7.40753814846247
1983Q3 -4.88754761257971 -4.4992809990528 -2.77580246185999 -6.22275953624562
1983Q4 -3.73114528157985 -3.38736296122613 -1.66234686962916 -5.11237905282311
1984Q1 -2.87380741289041 -2.55398121990347 -0.827440432118684 -4.28052200768825
1984Q2 -2.44595970520168 -2.13285489036764 -0.404800402098251 -3.86090937863703
1984Q3 -2.3743995215254 -2.05902618459607 -0.329467141882458 -3.78858522730968
1984Q4 -2.16650318260678 -1.84879378885197 -0.117737499373713 -3.57985007833023
1985Q1 -2.11922574573464 -1.80377015483576 -0.0712220976466011 -3.53631821202492
1985Q2 -2.12245692006367 -1.79734006537343 -0.0633038990522112 -3.53137623169465
1985Q3 -2.11148435617709 -1.79650484495694 -0.0609824141580111 -3.53202727575588
1985Q4 -2.00768132946367 -1.69955881286704 0.0374498467457556 -3.43656747247983
1986Q1 -2.01990904074513 -1.69392416550686 0.0445724929444578 -3.43242082395817
1986Q2 -2.11076879400474 -1.78273048965517 -0.0427422583076509 -3.52271872100269
1986Q3 -1.93246175599915 -1.63330166062895 0.108183521711758 -3.37478684296965
1986Q4 -1.63850890052343 -1.34948196928753 0.393507347864776 -3.09247128643983
1987Q1 -1.2889671248223 -1.01047668120558 0.734025763671539 -2.7549791260827
1987Q2 -0.803796104795974 -0.543015336247289 1.20301104344176 -2.28904171593634
1987Q3 -0.540140343265383 -0.286172177877229 1.46139076468464 -2.03373512043909
1987Q4 -0.194235430838201 0.0601595402430751 1.8092735032489 -1.68895442276275
1988Q1 -0.0166915205902744 0.232134191687437 1.98281547250755 -1.51854708913268
1988Q2 0.482752206180276 0.732467519669618 2.48473426753131 -1.01979922819207
1988Q3 0.556208710060108 0.837223022917496 2.59109525274929 -0.916649206914303
1988Q4 1.01581306708666 1.30362420166856 3.05912380974828 -0.451875406411156
1989Q1 0.892618887651729 1.15894662800503 2.91609740943143 -0.598204153421374
1989Q2 0.732230549691729 1.00007858743436 2.75890625544126 -0.758749080572528
1989Q3 0.676645489465699 0.948758849265258 2.70929105639909 -0.811773357868578
1989Q4 0.534800934309159 0.786946301481788 2.5492126626648 -0.97532005970122
1990Q1 0.479599392831998 0.702762926419169 2.46679504392083 -1.06126919108249
1990Q2 0.133817469113273 0.360326211577565 2.12615770191855 -1.40550527876342
1990Q3 -0.610581082998397 -0.36400912672471 1.40365739608997 -2.13167564953939
1990Q4 -1.54622817600752 -1.27419385384609 0.49534543503751 -3.04373314272969
1991Q1 -2.37956776280082 -2.07771534703861 -0.306263451668924 -3.84916724240829
1991Q2 -2.66414257895476 -2.33462790958111 -0.561221425581564 -4.10803439358066
1991Q3 -2.96404741248021 -2.62195370044566 -0.846548466966138 -4.39735893392518
1991Q4 -3.3830207063161 -3.00681515538733 -1.22936479378304 -4.78426551699162
1992Q1 -3.56128846821748 -3.13916182516902 -1.3596176977683 -4.91870595256974
1992Q2 -3.79325948598248 -3.33936015660368 -1.55767132329545 -5.12104898991191
1992Q3 -3.81156766817021 -3.32593489312807 -1.54204806572931 -5.10982172052683
1992Q4 -3.22620274134778 -2.71807803223025 -0.931937526592756 -4.50421853786775
1993Q1 -2.9948700856761 -2.4672271518762 -0.678774837689511 -4.25567946606289
1993Q2 -2.69546705004927 -2.13363810989292 -0.342813358137869 -3.92446286164798
1993Q3 -2.42319851314425 -1.82383970133368 -0.0305793293386818 -3.61710007332867
1993Q4 -2.15340363997165 -1.5224304653831 0.273331320566801 -3.318192251333
1994Q1 -1.83723002689229 -1.16922457053218 0.629107094022368 -2.96755623508672
1994Q2 -1.28559867618209 -0.597591059737806 1.20338168145262 -2.39856380092823
1994Q3 -0.914442961553666 -0.193058121961752 1.61062969233835 -1.99674593626185
1994Q4 -0.41018342163216 0.342201551381048 2.1486813014431 -1.464278198681
1995Q1 -0.341411347638437 0.430014507744008 2.23936599287414 -1.37933697738612
1995Q2 -0.575545454879756 0.244689804617231 2.05699583405745 -1.56761622482299
1995Q3 -0.269750291356711 0.59756740902094 2.41291387810878 -1.2177790600669
1995Q4 -0.275907816271104 0.626038164617255 2.44451413389727 -1.19243780466276
1996Q1 -0.293703108750409 0.636317973226545 2.45801575059127 -1.18537980413818
1996Q2 0.00891090359650804 0.985428535131768 2.81044376107418 -0.839586690810646
1996Q3 0.298741363974395 1.32799718797957 3.15642892404245 -0.500434548083316
1996Q4 0.503704332066452 1.57880454598435 3.41075536649696 -0.253146274528267
1997Q1 0.667456483915091 1.77332419366409 3.60890028085959 -0.0622518935314047
1997Q2 0.902660870305495 2.03405277620791 3.87336401882184 0.194741533593975
1997Q3 1.1368129222883 2.30364797529125 4.14680807074376 0.460487879838736
1997Q4 1.39532779952706 2.58534763568417 4.43247419595532 0.738221075413009
1998Q1 1.60261680461329 2.81381891150106 4.66503357281445 0.962604250187668
1998Q2 1.73833441677157 2.97158939994236 4.82701793637637 1.11616086350834
1998Q3 1.74504909840557 3.01954313319898 4.87931557435265 1.1597706920453
1998Q4 2.05414759843721 3.36758620385204 5.23183695669826 1.50333545100582
1999Q1 2.23973935231927 3.58114856588219 5.45001654094904 1.71228059081534
1999Q2 2.27742203872006 3.62582224071897 5.49945098274539 1.75219349869255
1999Q3 2.44584582736446 3.81380719200011 5.69234501522295 1.93526936877727
1999Q4 2.67206790984108 4.04919027420006 5.93279040243645 2.16559014596367
2000Q1 2.73776951611397 4.11388306783558 6.00270377953469 2.22506235613648
2000Q2 2.6891553420566 4.06112683641746 5.95533161486656 2.16692205796837
2000Q3 2.76343069030847 4.14159676039371 6.04135444927446 2.24183907151295
2000Q4 2.46927456643583 3.83019273456118 5.73567769906628 1.92470777005609
2001Q1 2.10467408338574 3.44835090044317 5.35974319417542 1.53695860671091
2001Q2 1.47742264544061 2.81875089085892 4.73623642875375 0.901265352964085
2001Q3 0.396140564521699 1.73489629754531 3.65866703507367 -0.18887443998306
2001Q4 -0.623459359712724 0.739510421466974 2.66976454039735 -1.1907436974634
2002Q1 -0.588934737485061 0.796267885828605 2.73320998684978 -1.14067421519257
2002Q2 -0.573059773145466 0.803200074536445 2.74704137707012 -1.14064122799723
2002Q3 -0.651181897276578 0.716936852764314 2.66789540232623 -1.2340216967976
2002Q4 -0.803463663704592 0.559863958503138 2.51816484200731 -1.39843692500103
2003Q1 -1.19183721282956 0.17472574672501 2.14060131616638 -1.79114982271636
2003Q2 -1.3628156631637 0.0146894889718658 1.98837959396785 -1.95900061602412
2003Q3 -0.904601714390257 0.461997396768789 2.44374962649386 -1.51975483295629
2003Q4 -0.576443079629047 0.772617267095073 2.76268720220285 -1.21745266801271
2004Q1 -0.500375413180695 0.831079500532427 2.82973097572876 -1.16757197466391
2004Q2 -0.209752050224534 1.10329998273765 3.1108053607457 -0.904205395270394
2004Q3 0.0267365325873374 1.32036337140369 3.33700382915234 -0.696277086344968
2004Q4 0.127556715887253 1.40043222718334 3.42649805515275 -0.625633600786067
2005Q1 0.416722686365302 1.67661228165759 3.71240319743797 -0.359178634122787
2005Q2 0.600225879726461 1.84521916130557 3.89104463857622 -0.200606315965088
2005Q3 0.786822168550405 2.0236067250516 4.07978633938712 -0.0325728892839141
2005Q4 1.09942381510139 2.32906295303996 4.39592674623604 0.262199159843879
2006Q1 1.5867224581885 2.79938233450604 4.87727119956043 0.721493469451657
2006Q2 1.54808702132345 2.75689785817159 4.84616394778491 0.667631768558268
2006Q3 1.70696918252034 2.91517903629767 5.01618619900242 0.814171873592914
2006Q4 2.00328792022096 3.18938905551466 5.3025133057036 1.07626480532572
2007Q1 1.73060033117611 2.87865717588168 5.00428720779731 0.753027143966049
2007Q2 1.77547437501497 2.8892616693225 5.02779943149629 0.750723907148708
2007Q3 1.46633990430353 2.55344310687405 4.70530446425052 0.401581749497575
2007Q4 1.17790556313502 2.22483326668676 4.39044879717099 0.0592177362025317
2008Q1 0.771811537714907 1.77885541276147 3.95867141519202 -0.400960589669082
2008Q2 -0.00768195122360626 0.947366999792712 3.14184681682942 -1.247112817244
2008Q3 -1.18088175372828 -0.275889401341459 1.93373645169138 -2.4855152543743
2008Q4 -3.35619964930414 -2.49035521174629 -0.265079379692121 -4.71563104380045
2009Q1 -5.31442104238074 -4.47518020232484 -2.2337250630141 -6.71663534163558
2009Q2 -6.57278166994053 -5.75392866269395 -3.49573634057797 -8.01212098480993
2009Q3 -7.0777732926919 -6.29080286156648 -4.01527212040565 -8.56633360272731
2009Q4 -6.77935072476156 -5.99027098571023 -3.69673045644035 -8.28381151498012
2010Q1 -6.24210069152555 -5.4611501218718 -3.1489834213039 -7.7733168224397
2010Q2 -6.05806997798658 -5.27670107837344 -2.94527849722133 -7.60812365952556
2010Q3 -5.87219786443991 -5.07748359370774 -2.72435250684383 -7.43061468057164
2010Q4 -5.42408594537864 -4.63233734232229 -2.25748771266944 -7.00718697197514
2011Q1 -4.64051381754847 -3.89847338410444 -1.51271099478065 -6.28423577342823
Return to Figure 7

Figure 8: More-Variable NAIRU Estimate

Quarter Unemployment Rate NAIRU with EEB effect (baseline model) NAIRU with EEB effect (more variable NAIRU)
1967Q1 3.94692655163898 5.64039678212497 5.60867633236299
1967Q2 3.94366654032306 5.57128471612816 5.42777352593006
1967Q3 3.92127795370947 5.50193869334635 5.26932915556142
1967Q4 4.05179247142266 5.5045980358565 5.28098433501103
1968Q1 3.86456822420446 5.45099096246342 5.1466035712208
1968Q2 3.67450060245935 5.44079479001441 5.10862188146044
1968Q3 3.6471701897683 5.50994538913402 5.24274702026389
1968Q4 3.52899530187126 5.52610654390661 5.28198761098792
1969Q1 3.51370316908852 5.58911173583301 5.39301955756205
1969Q2 3.56089710325078 5.61691311936311 5.46128447469688
1969Q3 3.72613155555783 5.65280219434821 5.54137201670454
1969Q4 3.71712126186861 5.57551264510426 5.32818887666234
1970Q1 4.29174104137562 5.6245860636735 5.47355238523898
1970Q2 4.87552354650559 5.69079592957693 5.58316331135028
1970Q3 5.29507701271406 5.68773085031904 5.59190698244482
1970Q4 5.92470995164179 5.78343502994733 5.78301803671665
1971Q1 6.03469295841734 5.75157187863651 5.70315073498358
1971Q2 6.02701095473099 5.77399540636688 5.6456397432173
1971Q3 6.10109246085108 5.8269906413517 5.74700580697997
1971Q4 6.07130152557587 5.84409079023434 5.78716594571551
1972Q1 5.92080759768266 5.82985814828366 5.77949104727864
1972Q2 5.8108836856288 5.85073266938767 5.81392781022224
1972Q3 5.73602878741115 5.89983848736514 5.92677864660474
1972Q4 5.45648824043509 5.9141882149905 5.95912297621486
1973Q1 5.10286378889547 5.95408615522771 6.04525654648485
1973Q2 5.04182463569122 6.04625883801869 6.25255947962785
1973Q3 4.9448993185009 6.08908813848663 6.32380540482587
1973Q4 4.92057008132899 5.98717583005575 6.18202811490464
1974Q1 5.2348315893101 6.06027030950286 6.29111917797471
1974Q2 5.31046408430386 5.95785175011194 6.05078970000896
1974Q3 5.73080146854991 5.8946937975165 5.89824264472717
1974Q4 6.69980503670873 5.90536267848747 5.95669827328681
1975Q1 8.3546353465176 6.24635764189588 6.57476012176084
1975Q2 8.96326510671201 6.28446706903285 6.60735698882491
1975Q3 8.60247094156053 6.15933508587074 6.22900983126956
1975Q4 8.39429047991981 6.14632102335062 6.25268502977822
1976Q1 7.85930639106197 6.08743328682639 6.06742028121611
1976Q2 7.6627075972653 6.06484467307591 6.04155764401206
1976Q3 7.83472127266232 6.17388655475076 6.25743854005496
1976Q4 7.86720363650224 6.18042955904485 6.32795917986902
1977Q1 7.62708797542419 6.14710093591599 6.26245775282035
1977Q2 7.23968657763694 6.08912645786558 6.16777071592159
1977Q3 6.99955315809132 6.14055913809803 6.25008845420802
1977Q4 6.74822220634382 6.10600306554518 6.19662913714567
1978Q1 6.45234069355455 6.04021931113578 6.10571023724015
1978Q2 6.12545703120822 6.05407588554915 6.14681828696284
1978Q3 6.14728340750334 6.19535257025104 6.4479771389133
1978Q4 6.00986132005826 6.22048761610982 6.53211990437405
1979Q1 6.00362319630938 6.21521340085986 6.54356539810435
1979Q2 5.8398817242844 6.11792482200292 6.3354982253751
1979Q3 5.99392620908714 6.13071769546392 6.37045478800092
1979Q4 6.06539106079507 6.11272735132723 6.27436505594321
1980Q1 6.42230365220845 6.08082780349795 6.24773185855048
1980Q2 7.44988512383994 6.27182783671746 6.67663869102986
1980Q3 7.80917994413602 6.3233133276142 6.7169098132836
1980Q4 7.53023661376181 6.26154955580266 6.49659229322039
1981Q1 7.56090892775966 6.30744065693635 6.57190388704374
1981Q2 7.53602476293482 6.19018510251169 6.40094391394
1981Q3 7.55717025677961 6.05173128116102 6.17622049032916
1981Q4 8.38151640017749 6.22433842792761 6.56907654869885
1982Q1 8.98498346915276 6.30869793671286 6.70744251081133
1982Q2 9.56795860428207 6.42434438759617 6.880751186076
1982Q3 10.0859363762547 6.49206119639459 7.01117902656624
1982Q4 10.8194731548814 6.74537405944695 7.43597988367047
1983Q1 10.5429649799592 6.68305508536733 7.23106821693229
1983Q2 10.2513062562234 6.81655546928369 7.37751555835949
1983Q3 9.5142516174472 6.66600953082659 7.21744497806257
1983Q4 8.70139350788276 6.49280517086875 6.93073023240375
1984Q1 8.03658185661462 6.35396737946528 6.70245521769259
1984Q2 7.64771382245578 6.2922912026236 6.61735352935642
1984Q3 7.62373417440863 6.32454694270216 6.74178284153957
1984Q4 7.45814699195116 6.30126016935091 6.695216433985
1985Q1 7.45768084515928 6.3207683970015 6.74724878810935
1985Q2 7.46920365242625 6.32069680485224 6.77547962350019
1985Q3 7.39393258370015 6.25364977285983 6.68105198890039
1985Q4 7.24099516451965 6.16424368533323 6.51770910556132
1986Q1 7.18686554930066 6.16366141851662 6.48378572363285
1986Q2 7.35315613534184 6.21828145574477 6.62491516380025
1986Q3 7.16606257203227 6.11785860529061 6.44269284426794
1986Q4 7.0124594349137 6.07118402323865 6.34920204476306
1987Q1 6.80033287219114 6.02345945114273 6.24769774337518
1987Q2 6.46304332561427 5.94428216077975 6.07489011758714
1987Q3 6.19891201611528 5.88001302249619 5.95989401572363
1987Q4 6.05593387167246 5.87503295006451 5.96988156115271
1988Q1 5.91678658580038 5.87261934134689 5.96660429101428
1988Q2 5.67878692864622 5.84119237975707 5.92469110946192
1988Q3 5.68605011372176 5.93569020300876 6.10628390410862
1988Q4 5.54611462564153 5.9681765592704 6.1679922235031
1989Q1 5.41351181738184 5.90060147660371 6.07486411417189
1989Q2 5.44446574205905 5.8762556957837 6.06490133696783
1989Q3 5.47912068601982 5.87538649842911 6.04938813895938
1989Q4 5.57721181767775 5.85407844577459 6.03631633894547
1990Q1 5.43181675738827 5.71192699702446 5.76130229255115
1990Q2 5.46870771561115 5.64359229117455 5.60877272933644
1990Q3 5.81823577293837 5.64793978593423 5.64354067680553
1990Q4 6.2436470519215 5.62707568152708 5.64086272556153
1991Q1 6.70311705624598 5.61708832132476 5.65046057128037
1991Q2 6.95185128862595 5.59404402539162 5.57887744180398
1991Q3 6.98155613668006 5.49509234253904 5.37001772861388
1991Q4 7.22414376751785 5.51372710792895 5.39074003794562
1992Q1 7.50573482217285 5.72251692321816 5.56991037389907
1992Q2 7.72051950787524 5.76392527954214 5.69137388149406
1992Q3 7.75206694887801 5.73496928832216 5.70248707493657
1992Q4 7.53200020577327 5.71529031418564 5.6262302622701
1993Q1 7.27591812027648 5.65465754380906 5.51597318615649
1993Q2 7.1950082837447 5.65540149142413 5.57014630518374
1993Q3 6.92617066537583 5.61359700018599 5.45073254419406
1993Q4 6.74602751697349 5.56176417885307 5.40656926992255
1994Q1 6.58079662040234 5.50930860830007 5.40825227786429
1994Q2 6.19109507009246 5.40673999845225 5.25464653806458
1994Q3 6.02708840370132 5.38607126434918 5.29224992566526
1994Q4 5.64586923524309 5.36134987701076 5.16560252938585
1995Q1 5.50470832925891 5.33340471964873 5.13214258040051
1995Q2 5.70086315184709 5.41668874827614 5.33338270627047
1995Q3 5.6845963881557 5.45004382986903 5.38978509593047
1995Q4 5.59837909254713 5.45374642799247 5.3496744572744
1996Q1 5.5717986395967 5.41937078644266 5.32098291402564
1996Q2 5.49661937609651 5.42726242138456 5.33235381636976
1996Q3 5.2863027406339 5.43361927847092 5.29556081516066
1996Q4 5.33708457337968 5.51688993201845 5.48581916729965
1997Q1 5.24161285257625 5.51575795933538 5.48846861995337
1997Q2 4.99371944480178 5.4438428390451 5.33193280588319
1997Q3 4.87526998394171 5.43325322450185 5.30545028393611
1997Q4 4.70485882163842 5.40941174519447 5.2515243985398
1998Q1 4.62869572084221 5.42047267316067 5.26925761482438
1998Q2 4.40447019697851 5.35414530153321 5.1226424977269
1998Q3 4.51894065702816 5.42231250986834 5.28927493332912
1998Q4 4.4197494355596 5.44498224455122 5.32791232220183
1999Q1 4.27430555040402 5.46039091386772 5.32762295928544
1999Q2 4.2381467158895 5.45821703880289 5.36172058795025
1999Q3 4.23320809170395 5.48684553510124 5.43255506703625
1999Q4 4.06732430778273 5.47830405522008 5.38069764675734
2000Q1 4.04979902003245 5.47396927861683 5.40527382200114
2000Q2 3.94802850603652 5.42809906222915 5.31163445394683
2000Q3 4.02900933227238 5.4548642684433 5.38025792635232
2000Q4 3.91657915471216 5.38095901289262 5.18843422698323
2001Q1 4.22686452670014 5.37998559706142 5.25726693242254
2001Q2 4.40679365119708 5.34919716925286 5.14093476107386
2001Q3 4.81437715913594 5.31261841339071 5.09377241590544
2001Q4 5.53153942677604 5.38252465754416 5.3162635559645
2002Q1 5.69855542053327 5.40399701655114 5.29013580422281
2002Q2 5.8377531983446 5.52092025223391 5.3532440256025
2002Q3 5.72217573588129 5.44418519723541 5.20418550743925
2002Q4 5.8407811250003 5.41813128475908 5.21832060527105
2003Q1 5.86867068260829 5.35932348349639 5.12215737794943
2003Q2 6.14787715244509 5.45882259809474 5.31950767462945
2003Q3 6.10183221874496 5.48804106835447 5.37043402615007
2003Q4 5.81267421992198 5.44785207574211 5.27138046548017
2004Q1 5.67695204340199 5.413283900515 5.27899354984144
2004Q2 5.58341986759844 5.39196330532379 5.31668468193571
2004Q3 5.42702353477204 5.39205325669514 5.30151339487018
2004Q4 5.38084578901639 5.40703183468842 5.34832339507507
2005Q1 5.27557909353413 5.41185192900696 5.3589045652239
2005Q2 5.09705376406911 5.37993647523951 5.2884482127314
2005Q3 4.95468422924219 5.37413768812687 5.27209039461821
2005Q4 4.9422792801469 5.44864231151623 5.41933773421376
2006Q1 4.70697280739927 5.43854840502018 5.39570452636426
2006Q2 4.64062057159069 5.46451642087388 5.45651719167158
2006Q3 4.62777514302984 5.49709208728469 5.54261594128698
2006Q4 4.43665226970966 5.47172941680428 5.4625958275906
2007Q1 4.49381070228252 5.4688577532133 5.4822809217915
2007Q2 4.47241992069919 5.43584229990713 5.42732728978051
2007Q3 4.64713245187081 5.48442256628318 5.51061711633284
2007Q4 4.79738431447514 5.48364353109891 5.5334093585261
2008Q1 4.94379915416704 5.46984838157846 5.49775047774727
2008Q2 5.30871092779299 5.48081710051244 5.53713996616892
2008Q3 6.03311055731496 5.63785814271491 5.75006450313036
2008Q4 6.90954846130831 5.67333316618744 5.82355468496485
2009Q1 8.22596309844731 5.89312370052093 6.23280954707247
2009Q2 9.29032947217386 6.09707638640858 6.56164027718112
2009Q3 9.69443346529232 6.1860963682828 6.55686429548543
2009Q4 10.0115393095044 6.35545726770682 6.82068738706929
2010Q1 9.69859702120237 6.42612069226703 6.74618564151209
2010Q2 9.65773155312074 6.43983555838211 6.94001263923775
2010Q3 9.58722945329042 6.5260582975958 7.1209421543357
2010Q4 9.62959597029724 6.59734298846178 7.3745844336624
2011Q1 8.93314602099 6.40074762428895 6.96621085684382
Return to Figure 8
♣ This version is optimized for use by screen readers. Descriptions for all mathematical expressions are provided in LaTex format. A printable pdf version is available. Return to Text
Home | Working Papers | Accessibility | Contact us
Last update: April 4, 2012