Flow and Stock Effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchases:Evidence on the Importance of Local Supply

Stefania D'Amico and Thomas B. King

Figure 1. Maturity Distribution of Nominal Treasury LSAP Purchases - Billions of Dollars - Percentage of Sector

	0-2 Years	2-4 Years	4-6 Years	6-8 Years	8-10 Years	10-12 Years	12-14 Years	14-16 Years	16-18 Years	18-20 Years	20-22 Years	26-28 Years	28-30 Years
% of sector	1.37%	9.10%	11.72%	17.51%	3.79%	15.05%	10.05%	5.66%	9.57%	7.83%	4.69%	0.90%	3.93%
$ bil	18.319	73.609	70.163	68.545	12.506	12.8	8.481	2.608	5.58	5.268	2.093	0.582	3.986

Return to Figure 1

Figure 2. Selected Treasury Yields during the Treasury LSAP Program

	30yr	20yr	10yr	7yr	5yr	3yr	2yr	1yr
2009-01-02	2.83	3.22	2.46	2.07	1.72	1.14	0.88	0.4
2009-01-05	3	3.37	2.49	2.07	1.67	1.08	0.78	0.43
2009-01-06	3.04	3.41	2.51	2.07	1.68	1.1	0.80	0.45
2009-01-07	3.05	3.41	2.52	2.02	1.66	1.15	0.82	0.44
2009-01-08	3.04	3.4	2.47	1.95	1.6	1.16	0.83	0.44
2009-01-09	3.04	3.39	2.43	1.88	1.51	1.11	0.75	0.43
2009-01-12	2.99	3.3	2.34	1.81	1.45	1.09	0.74	0.43
2009-01-13	3	3.3	2.33	1.8	1.44	1.07	0.76	0.43
2009-01-14	2.89	3.17	2.24	1.71	1.36	1.03	0.73	0.42
2009-01-15	2.86	3.16	2.23	1.71	1.36	1.01	0.73	0.42
2009-01-16	2.89	3.22	2.36	1.83	1.47	1.05	0.73	0.43
2009-01-20	2.97	3.3	2.4	1.85	1.48	1.06	0.73	0.42
2009-01-21	3.15	3.51	2.56	1.99	1.6	1.12	0.78	0.43
2009-01-22	3.25	3.61	2.62	2.02	1.61	1.11	0.75	0.42
2009-01-23	3.32	3.65	2.65	2.05	1.64	1.16	0.83	0.46
2009-01-26	3.39	3.71	2.7	2.09	1.67	1.21	0.85	0.47
2009-01-27	3.26	3.57	2.59	1.99	1.59	1.15	0.87	0.47
2009-01-28	3.44	3.73	2.71	2.1	1.7	1.22	0.89	0.48
2009-01-29	3.57	3.85	2.87	2.28	1.87	1.34	0.95	0.51
2009-01-30	3.58	3.86	2.87	2.27	1.85	1.32	0.94	0.51
2009-02-02	3.47	3.75	2.76	2.16	1.75	1.27	0.89	0.51
2009-02-03	3.64	3.88	2.89	2.28	1.88	1.37	0.96	0.53
2009-02-04	3.65	3.88	2.95	2.32	1.91	1.42	0.98	0.53
2009-02-05	3.63	3.86	2.95	2.32	1.89	1.4	0.98	0.54
2009-02-06	3.7	3.94	3.05	2.4	1.97	1.44	0.99	0.57
2009-02-09	3.69	3.91	3.07	2.42	1.99	1.5	1.05	0.6
2009-02-10	3.54	3.77	2.9	2.23	1.79	1.31	0.92	0.6
2009-02-11	3.45	3.69	2.78	2.17	1.76	1.32	0.93	0.6
2009-02-12	3.47	3.71	2.75	2.14	1.73	1.28	0.89	0.58
2009-02-13	3.68	3.91	2.89	2.29	1.88	1.37	0.97	0.61
2009-02-17	3.47	3.7	2.64	2.05	1.65	1.22	0.87	0.61
2009-02-18	3.54	3.77	2.74	2.18	1.81	1.33	0.97	0.64
2009-02-19	3.68	3.92	2.85	2.28	1.89	1.38	1.01	0.67
2009-02-20	3.56	3.82	2.78	2.21	1.81	1.3	0.96	0.64
2009-02-23	3.53	3.79	2.78	2.22	1.84	1.34	0.96	0.69
2009-02-24	3.49	3.77	2.8	2.26	1.89	1.37	1.03	0.71
2009-02-25	3.59	3.88	2.95	2.42	2.06	1.49	1.09	0.75
2009-02-26	3.66	3.93	2.98	2.72	2.07	1.5	1.08	0.73
2009-02-27	3.71	3.98	3.02	2.69	1.99	1.4	1.00	0.72
2009-03-02	3.64	3.89	2.91	2.54	1.86	1.28	0.89	0.67
2009-03-03	3.67	3.92	2.93	2.58	1.87	1.31	0.91	0.68
2009-03-04	3.69	3.96	3.01	2.67	1.97	1.4	0.97	0.71
2009-03-05	3.51	3.76	2.83	2.49	1.82	1.3	0.90	0.66
2009-03-06	3.5	3.74	2.83	2.49	1.83	1.34	0.91	0.67
2009-03-09	3.59	3.83	2.89	2.53	1.9	1.38	0.96	0.69
2009-03-10	3.7	3.94	2.99	2.63	1.99	1.46	1.01	0.71
2009-03-11	3.67	3.88	2.95	2.56	1.96	1.45	1.03	0.71
2009-03-12	3.63	3.82	2.89	2.5	1.92	1.42	1.03	0.7
2009-03-13	3.66	3.84	2.89	2.48	1.87	1.36	0.98	0.67
2009-03-16	3.76	3.93	2.97	2.55	1.91	1.39	1.00	0.69
2009-03-17	3.83	3.99	3.02	2.64	2	1.45	1.05	0.69
2009-03-18	3.57	3.65	2.51	2.11	1.54	1.14	0.82	0.6
2009-03-19	3.62	3.64	2.61	2.17	1.64	1.21	0.87	0.6
2009-03-20	3.65	3.67	2.65	2.18	1.66	1.23	0.89	0.6
2009-03-23	3.69	3.7	2.68	2.2	1.69	1.25	0.93	0.6
2009-03-24	3.6	3.64	2.68	2.22	1.7	1.24	0.93	0.62
2009-03-25	3.73	3.76	2.81	2.36	1.84	1.35	0.96	0.6
2009-03-26	3.66	3.69	2.76	2.34	1.8	1.29	0.90	0.57
2009-03-27	3.62	3.66	2.78	2.36	1.79	1.27	0.90	0.58
2009-03-30	3.6	3.64	2.73	2.31	1.72	1.2	0.84	0.58
2009-03-31	3.56	3.61	2.71	2.28	1.67	1.15	0.81	0.57
2009-04-01	3.51	3.54	2.68	2.25	1.65	1.16	0.83	0.58
2009-04-02	3.57	3.63	2.77	2.35	1.74	1.25	0.88	0.59
2009-04-03	3.7	3.77	2.91	2.51	1.87	1.36	0.96	0.6
2009-04-06	3.73	3.82	2.95	2.55	1.9	1.37	0.94	0.6
2009-04-07	3.72	3.79	2.93	2.51	1.87	1.33	0.91	0.6
2009-04-08	3.66	3.74	2.86	2.43	1.83	1.34	0.93	0.59
2009-04-09	3.76	3.85	2.96	2.49	1.9	1.36	0.96	0.6
2009-04-13	3.69	3.78	2.88	2.39	1.81	1.27	0.89	0.57
2009-04-14	3.64	3.73	2.8	2.31	1.71	1.21	0.86	0.54
2009-04-15	3.66	3.75	2.82	2.29	1.71	1.22	0.86	0.54
2009-04-16	3.72	3.81	2.86	2.36	1.79	1.27	0.91	0.54
2009-04-17	3.79	3.91	2.98	2.48	1.91	1.36	0.99	0.57
2009-04-20	3.69	3.8	2.88	2.39	1.82	1.27	0.93	0.54
2009-04-21	3.74	3.86	2.94	2.46	1.87	1.32	0.96	0.53
2009-04-22	3.82	3.93	2.98	2.5	1.92	1.36	1.00	0.52
2009-04-23	3.8	3.9	2.96	2.49	1.89	1.34	0.97	0.49
2009-04-24	3.89	3.99	3.03	2.56	1.96	1.38	0.99	0.5
2009-04-27	3.84	3.92	2.95	2.48	1.87	1.31	0.90	0.49
2009-04-28	3.97	4.03	3.05	2.58	1.97	1.39	0.95	0.52
2009-04-29	4.01	4.07	3.12	2.69	2.01	1.4	0.94	0.5
2009-04-30	4.05	4.1	3.16	2.7	2.02	1.38	0.91	0.49
2009-05-01	4.09	4.14	3.21	2.72	2.03	1.39	0.92	0.49
2009-05-04	4.06	4.11	3.19	2.7	2.03	1.4	0.94	0.52
2009-05-05	4.06	4.11	3.2	2.7	2.05	1.46	0.98	0.53
2009-05-06	4.09	4.12	3.18	2.7	2.06	1.43	0.96	0.51
2009-05-07	4.25	4.26	3.29	2.8	2.15	1.46	1.00	0.54
2009-05-08	4.28	4.25	3.29	2.78	2.15	1.44	1.00	0.55
2009-05-11	4.18	4.15	3.17	2.67	2.04	1.34	0.92	0.53
2009-05-12	4.16	4.13	3.17	2.67	2.02	1.34	0.90	0.54
2009-05-13	4.09	4.06	3.11	2.62	1.98	1.31	0.89	0.52
2009-05-14	4.06	4.04	3.1	2.62	1.98	1.3	0.87	0.5
2009-05-15	4.09	4.07	3.14	2.65	2.01	1.3	0.88	0.5
2009-05-18	4.18	4.16	3.22	2.73	2.09	1.36	0.93	0.5
2009-05-19	4.21	4.19	3.25	2.76	2.12	1.37	0.91	0.48
2009-05-20	4.14	4.11	3.19	2.72	2.05	1.31	0.87	0.44
2009-05-21	4.3	4.27	3.35	2.86	2.16	1.36	0.89	0.45
2009-05-22	4.38	4.36	3.45	2.96	2.23	1.39	0.92	0.49
2009-05-26	4.45	4.42	3.5	3.05	2.3	1.45	0.96	0.5
2009-05-27	4.59	4.58	3.71	3.22	2.43	1.5	0.96	0.49
2009-05-28	4.54	4.52	3.67	3.22	2.46	1.52	0.97	0.48
2009-05-29	4.34	4.34	3.47	3.06	2.34	1.42	0.92	0.47
2009-06-01	4.55	4.56	3.71	3.28	2.55	1.52	0.97	0.48
2009-06-02	4.5	4.51	3.65	3.26	2.52	1.52	0.96	0.46
2009-06-03	4.45	4.44	3.56	3.16	2.43	1.47	0.91	0.45
2009-06-04	4.58	4.58	3.72	3.31	2.56	1.54	0.96	0.47
2009-06-05	4.63	4.64	3.84	3.53	2.85	1.88	1.32	0.62
2009-06-08	4.65	4.66	3.91	3.6	2.95	2	1.42	0.62
2009-06-09	4.64	4.65	3.86	3.51	2.86	1.93	1.33	0.56
2009-06-10	4.76	4.75	3.98	3.59	2.93	2	1.38	0.55
2009-06-11	4.69	4.67	3.88	3.49	2.87	1.97	1.35	0.53
2009-06-12	4.65	4.63	3.81	3.46	2.81	1.91	1.30	0.52
2009-06-15	4.61	4.58	3.76	3.39	2.75	1.84	1.26	0.51
2009-06-16	4.48	4.47	3.67	3.32	2.7	1.79	1.23	0.51
2009-06-17	4.5	4.47	3.68	3.33	2.69	1.76	1.19	0.5
2009-06-18	4.63	4.62	3.86	3.51	2.86	1.88	1.28	0.52
2009-06-19	4.52	4.54	3.79	3.45	2.82	1.84	1.25	0.51
2009-06-22	4.45	4.45	3.72	3.37	2.75	1.77	1.17	0.5
2009-06-23	4.37	4.36	3.65	3.31	2.71	1.74	1.14	0.5
2009-06-24	4.44	4.43	3.72	3.39	2.74	1.79	1.19	0.5
2009-06-25	4.33	4.31	3.55	3.22	2.58	1.66	1.12	0.47
2009-06-26	4.3	4.28	3.52	3.18	2.53	1.63	1.10	0.45
2009-06-29	4.31	4.29	3.51	3.18	2.53	1.63	1.11	0.51
2009-06-30	4.32	4.3	3.53	3.19	2.54	1.64	1.11	0.56
2009-07-01	4.34	4.32	3.55	3.2	2.51	1.57	1.05	0.54
2009-07-02	4.32	4.28	3.51	3.14	2.43	1.52	0.98	0.49
2009-07-06	4.35	4.29	3.52	3.12	2.4	1.48	0.96	0.48
2009-07-07	4.31	4.25	3.47	3.08	2.36	1.52	0.98	0.46
2009-07-08	4.17	4.13	3.33	2.9	2.23	1.42	0.91	0.45
2009-07-09	4.31	4.26	3.44	3.01	2.33	1.46	0.94	0.47
2009-07-10	4.2	4.16	3.32	2.89	2.22	1.4	0.91	0.45
2009-07-13	4.25	4.21	3.38	2.94	2.27	1.41	0.92	0.47
2009-07-14	4.38	4.35	3.5	3.05	2.37	1.48	0.97	0.47
2009-07-15	4.48	4.46	3.63	3.19	2.52	1.6	1.03	0.5
2009-07-16	4.45	4.43	3.59	3.13	2.46	1.54	1.00	0.47
2009-07-17	4.53	4.51	3.67	3.21	2.52	1.58	1.02	0.48
2009-07-20	4.47	4.45	3.61	3.14	2.46	1.54	0.99	0.47
2009-07-21	4.38	4.35	3.5	3.03	2.36	1.47	0.96	0.46
2009-07-22	4.45	4.42	3.58	3.11	2.43	1.5	0.98	0.47
2009-07-23	4.58	4.55	3.72	3.28	2.6	1.62	1.08	0.49
2009-07-24	4.55	4.53	3.7	3.25	2.57	1.59	1.05	0.47
2009-07-27	4.62	4.6	3.75	3.31	2.63	1.63	1.08	0.49
2009-07-28	4.56	4.54	3.72	3.3	2.63	1.66	1.12	0.49
2009-07-29	4.5	4.49	3.69	3.31	2.69	1.72	1.17	0.5
2009-07-30	4.44	4.44	3.67	3.31	2.66	1.73	1.19	0.48
2009-07-31	4.31	4.29	3.52	3.14	2.53	1.62	1.13	0.48
2009-08-03	4.42	4.4	3.66	3.3	2.66	1.72	1.18	0.48
2009-08-04	4.45	4.44	3.7	3.32	2.68	1.75	1.20	0.47
2009-08-05	4.57	4.54	3.8	3.4	2.73	1.78	1.23	0.49
2009-08-06	4.53	4.51	3.79	3.39	2.73	1.77	1.22	0.48
2009-08-07	4.61	4.59	3.89	3.5	2.84	1.87	1.32	0.52
2009-08-10	4.52	4.49	3.8	3.4	2.75	1.79	1.24	0.49
2009-08-11	4.44	4.4	3.71	3.32	2.69	1.78	1.21	0.48
2009-08-12	4.53	4.49	3.72	3.35	2.7	1.76	1.18	0.47
2009-08-13	4.44	4.37	3.59	3.22	2.58	1.66	1.12	0.45
2009-08-14	4.41	4.33	3.55	3.17	2.51	1.61	1.07	0.44
2009-08-17	4.33	4.26	3.48	3.09	2.43	1.54	1.04	0.45
2009-08-18	4.35	4.29	3.51	3.13	2.48	1.57	1.06	0.43
2009-08-19	4.28	4.23	3.45	3.07	2.43	1.52	1.01	0.43
2009-08-20	4.24	4.18	3.42	3.06	2.43	1.53	1.03	0.42
2009-08-21	4.36	4.32	3.56	3.21	2.58	1.65	1.13	0.45
2009-08-24	4.27	4.22	3.48	3.13	2.5	1.57	1.05	0.44
2009-08-25	4.22	4.17	3.45	3.1	2.48	1.56	1.05	0.47
2009-08-26	4.2	4.15	3.44	3.09	2.46	1.57	1.06	0.45
2009-08-27	4.23	4.19	3.47	3.12	2.48	1.58	1.04	0.46
2009-08-28	4.21	4.17	3.46	3.09	2.46	1.55	1.01	0.44
2009-08-31	4.18	4.14	3.4	3.03	2.39	1.49	0.97	0.43
2009-09-01	4.19	4.14	3.38	2.99	2.33	1.44	0.92	0.43
2009-09-02	4.09	4.04	3.29	2.91	2.26	1.39	0.89	0.41
2009-09-03	4.15	4.09	3.33	2.95	2.29	1.42	0.91	0.42
2009-09-04	4.27	4.21	3.45	3.06	2.36	1.46	0.94	0.42
2009-09-08	4.31	4.24	3.47	3.06	2.38	1.49	0.93	0.41
2009-09-09	4.33	4.26	3.48	3.07	2.38	1.48	0.93	0.4
2009-09-10	4.19	4.11	3.36	2.95	2.29	1.42	0.90	0.4
2009-09-11	4.18	4.1	3.34	2.93	2.29	1.42	0.90	0.39
2009-09-14	4.22	4.16	3.42	3.01	2.37	1.46	0.94	0.4
2009-09-15	4.27	4.21	3.47	3.07	2.41	1.49	0.96	0.39
2009-09-16	4.26	4.22	3.48	3.11	2.46	1.55	1.01	0.38
2009-09-17	4.19	4.14	3.42	3.04	2.41	1.51	0.98	0.4
2009-09-18	4.24	4.2	3.49	3.12	2.49	1.57	1.03	0.41
2009-09-21	4.23	4.2	3.49	3.11	2.47	1.56	1.02	0.4
2009-09-22	4.2	4.18	3.46	3.09	2.45	1.54	1.02	0.42
2009-09-23	4.21	4.18	3.44	3.05	2.4	1.49	0.96	0.41
2009-09-24	4.17	4.14	3.4	3.03	2.37	1.45	0.93	0.39
2009-09-25	4.1	4.07	3.34	2.98	2.36	1.49	0.98	0.41
2009-09-28	4.04	4.02	3.31	2.95	2.33	1.47	0.98	0.4
2009-09-29	4.03	4.02	3.31	2.94	2.34	1.48	1.00	0.41
2009-09-30	4.03	4.02	3.31	2.93	2.31	1.45	0.95	0.4
2009-10-01	3.97	3.95	3.21	2.82	2.2	1.36	0.87	0.37
2009-10-02	4.01	3.98	3.24	2.83	2.22	1.38	0.88	0.37
2009-10-05	4.01	3.98	3.24	2.82	2.21	1.38	0.88	0.36
2009-10-06	4.07	4.03	3.27	2.85	2.25	1.43	0.91	0.37
2009-10-07	3.99	3.96	3.21	2.77	2.16	1.35	0.87	0.34
2009-10-08	4.09	4.05	3.27	2.83	2.22	1.4	0.90	0.35
2009-10-09	4.22	4.2	3.4	2.98	2.36	1.5	0.98	0.38
2009-10-13	4.16	4.14	3.34	2.9	2.28	1.42	0.91	0.35
2009-10-14	4.28	4.26	3.45	3.01	2.36	1.47	0.96	0.35
2009-10-15	4.31	4.29	3.49	3.05	2.41	1.5	0.97	0.36
2009-10-16	4.24	4.22	3.43	2.99	2.37	1.49	0.97	0.36
2009-10-19	4.21	4.19	3.41	2.98	2.36	1.5	0.99	0.38
2009-10-20	4.16	4.14	3.35	2.93	2.3	1.44	0.95	0.39
2009-10-21	4.22	4.2	3.42	3.01	2.38	1.51	1.00	0.4
2009-10-22	4.24	4.22	3.44	3.03	2.39	1.5	0.97	0.38
2009-10-23	4.29	4.27	3.51	3.1	2.46	1.57	1.04	0.4
2009-10-26	4.37	4.35	3.59	3.17	2.53	1.61	1.06	0.41
2009-10-27	4.29	4.26	3.49	3.05	2.41	1.51	0.99	0.39
2009-10-28	4.25	4.22	3.44	3.01	2.37	1.47	0.95	0.39
2009-10-29	4.35	4.31	3.53	3.12	2.44	1.52	0.98	0.4
2009-10-30	4.23	4.19	3.41	2.98	2.31	1.43	0.90	0.37
2009-11-02	4.26	4.22	3.45	3	2.33	1.44	0.92	0.38
2009-11-03	4.34	4.29	3.5	3.05	2.36	1.46	0.92	0.38
2009-11-04	4.41	4.36	3.57	3.09	2.39	1.46	0.91	0.36
2009-11-05	4.41	4.36	3.57	3.06	2.35	1.44	0.90	0.36
2009-11-06	4.4	4.35	3.54	3.02	2.3	1.4	0.86	0.34
2009-11-09	4.4	4.34	3.52	3.01	2.31	1.4	0.87	0.34
2009-11-10	4.41	4.36	3.5	3.01	2.31	1.39	0.85	0.33
2009-11-12	4.41	4.33	3.45	2.98	2.28	1.36	0.82	0.32
2009-11-13	4.36	4.29	3.43	2.97	2.28	1.34	0.82	0.32
2009-11-16	4.26	4.18	3.33	2.87	2.19	1.28	0.78	0.31
2009-11-17	4.26	4.17	3.33	2.87	2.19	1.28	0.78	0.32
2009-11-18	4.29	4.21	3.36	2.9	2.21	1.27	0.77	0.29
2009-11-19	4.29	4.2	3.35	2.88	2.18	1.24	0.73	0.27
2009-11-20	4.3	4.2	3.36	2.9	2.2	1.25	0.75	0.27
2009-11-23	4.29	4.2	3.37	2.9	2.2	1.28	0.77	0.29
2009-11-24	4.25	4.16	3.32	2.82	2.15	1.22	0.73	0.28
2009-11-25	4.23	4.12	3.28	2.78	2.11	1.23	0.73	0.26
2009-11-27	4.21	4.07	3.21	2.71	2.03	1.15	0.68	0.26
2009-11-30	4.2	4.07	3.21	2.69	2.01	1.12	0.67	0.27
2009-12-01	4.26	4.14	3.28	2.74	2.03	1.14	0.67	0.26
2009-12-02	4.26	4.14	3.32	2.8	2.09	1.19	0.72	0.28
2009-12-03	4.33	4.23	3.39	2.87	2.14	1.23	0.74	0.3
2009-12-04	4.4	4.31	3.48	2.97	2.24	1.34	0.84	0.36
2009-12-07	4.4	4.29	3.44	2.92	2.19	1.26	0.78	0.32
2009-12-08	4.39	4.28	3.4	2.86	2.12	1.21	0.73	0.29
2009-12-09	4.41	4.31	3.45	2.89	2.15	1.23	0.76	0.31
2009-12-10	4.5	4.37	3.49	2.95	2.19	1.26	0.78	0.32
2009-12-11	4.49	4.39	3.55	3.02	2.26	1.3	0.83	0.35
2009-12-14	4.48	4.39	3.56	3.04	2.3	1.35	0.87	0.37
2009-12-15	4.52	4.42	3.6	3.08	2.35	1.38	0.88	0.41
2009-12-16	4.52	4.42	3.61	3.09	2.35	1.36	0.85	0.38
2009-12-17	4.42	4.31	3.5	2.97	2.24	1.27	0.77	0.35
2009-12-18	4.46	4.36	3.55	3.04	2.3	1.32	0.82	0.36
2009-12-21	4.56	4.47	3.69	3.18	2.43	1.42	0.89	0.4
2009-12-22	4.6	4.52	3.76	3.24	2.49	1.48	0.95	0.41
2009-12-23	4.61	4.54	3.77	3.26	2.51	1.51	0.96	0.41
2009-12-24	4.68	4.6	3.82	3.32	2.57	1.56	1.00	0.43
2009-12-28	4.69	4.61	3.85	3.34	2.62	1.63	1.09	0.47
2009-12-29	4.64	4.57	3.82	3.33	2.62	1.64	1.09	0.47
2009-12-30	4.61	4.54	3.8	3.34	2.61	1.65	1.08	0.45
2009-12-31	4.63	4.58	3.85	3.39	2.69	1.7	1.14	0.47

Return to Figure 2

Figure 3. Stock Effect of the Treasury LSAP Program on Yields to Maturity

Remaining maturity	Actual yield	Estimated counterfactual yield	Estimated counterfactual lower confidence interval	Estimated counterfactual upper confidence interval
0.8	-0.027	0.710200194875849	0.345061685866764	1.07589425266655
0.9	-0.015	0.591975255903709	0.257195343116387	0.927315665355967
0.9	0.103	0.656503006876888	0.369541853504093	0.943944400349476
0.9	0.147	0.727813818298502	0.439344237343069	1.01676860481715
0.9	0.143	0.763721265135619	0.473259147097558	1.05467526899924
1.0	0.141	0.700213249413272	0.392731108621887	1.00831501381476
1.0	0.159	0.697863841701	0.421690934873195	0.974608472601698
1.0	0.146	0.74273566719062	0.403004159975217	1.08342873337937
1.1	0.182	0.862941871178625	0.528073883381297	1.19883686808306
1.1	0.188	0.681980763151015	0.399606478543657	0.965151933021438
1.2	0.201	0.687942337891927	0.422253117797991	0.954365866065811
1.2	0.198	0.937857864710174	0.537223762994918	1.34016169068224
1.2	0.210	0.654053796327543	0.407912948164808	0.900850026443798
1.2	0.223	0.674817924915999	0.429245861410714	0.921066935420088
1.3	0.244	0.652770943158097	0.4237169570551	0.882435735659271
1.3	0.253	0.687528456576514	0.450368368338004	0.925366222065341
1.4	0.285	0.674176882020221	0.452212982694024	0.896755148338402
1.4	0.326	0.737083294897994	0.510894262688976	0.963930770096514
1.4	0.326	0.749538740294833	0.521780777559617	0.977963531959129
1.5	0.337	0.706022886421092	0.496089562636468	0.916542371980927
1.5	0.349	0.724450931909639	0.51818887708448	0.931295778667304
1.5	0.368	0.88356948393667	0.591914487133167	1.17642726903219
1.6	0.380	0.731013377985107	0.539935828511745	0.922621103329102
1.6	0.409	0.871356186011718	0.60650075457603	1.13726212892452
1.7	0.412	0.73465335907364	0.556500620267484	0.913292863156821
1.7	0.431	0.855304971344103	0.609717420917485	1.10184580823209
1.7	0.452	0.777821799109376	0.60623903347641	0.949880016388769
1.8	0.466	0.849933536505751	0.622086211770516	1.07864473560146
1.8	0.446	0.727658946743565	0.572827108368656	0.882897614294981
1.9	0.487	0.859953355809838	0.644812514682167	1.07590274803722
1.9	0.509	0.774801114454183	0.62896663203911	0.921013449260539
2.0	0.523	0.870071271197378	0.667977356927224	1.07291245164628
2.0	0.513	0.793676573115037	0.64608893254558	0.941660384995602
2.0	0.532	0.788140611709283	0.649449098466781	0.927197613548086
2.1	0.592	0.846970920764847	0.710612074558973	0.9836981794889
2.2	0.611	0.853607139939676	0.720402124522829	0.987177987529652
2.3	0.678	0.912055129871194	0.78213603911497	1.04233557616185
2.4	0.721	0.96017844441002	0.830922758898185	1.08980544437093
2.4	0.713	0.94573269132893	0.815639193238356	1.07620914643947
2.5	0.782	1.03328733017844	0.89999882406261	1.16698522630684
2.5	0.844	1.12864819033676	0.988209472524532	1.26955748058208
2.6	0.871	1.10770260232729	0.980668680259205	1.23513455307971
2.7	0.927	1.23663096193543	1.05801329628244	1.41605451907376
2.7	0.921	1.16043723199239	1.03135599003483	1.28994282586714
2.7	0.979	1.27858597691666	1.10435247539001	1.45361239559092
2.8	0.990	1.23011084801935	1.10087201859192	1.35978819971582
2.8	1.038	1.32676496829472	1.15793852370115	1.49635918757532
2.9	1.036	1.24854531175026	1.12718972639965	1.3702991730689
2.9	1.080	1.38064108797099	1.19743676129975	1.56477674610209
2.9	1.058	1.29631215460951	1.16365605633977	1.42945111727776
3.0	1.068	1.31415106400264	1.18046058188236	1.44833951078376
3.0	1.110	1.41709199859991	1.19905203866429	1.63649162427626
3.0	1.134	1.38704189226668	1.24324951503577	1.53142725239372
3.1	1.157	1.41933555195231	1.27384685059137	1.56544844162351
3.2	1.172	1.49261972974636	1.33156157668368	1.6544629284419
3.3	1.219	1.56904436532131	1.39871070053843	1.74027880307273
3.4	1.244	1.56593327568012	1.40378714896697	1.7289172208107
3.4	1.259	1.5114351397756	1.36739428881634	1.65614587698589
3.5	1.286	1.56738066982488	1.41642719896541	1.71907966419898
3.5	1.327	1.59740659748528	1.44848871483839	1.74706743781765
3.6	1.374	1.6457888985235	1.49598676259209	1.79636193328535
3.7	1.379	1.64793883644977	1.49871002057906	1.79794113334576
3.7	1.416	1.6714775822604	1.52781421690839	1.81586762112835
3.8	1.464	1.7097126944727	1.56907427120528	1.85106244170838
3.9	1.525	1.76417768076165	1.6244583653091	1.90461683178632
3.9	1.574	1.86071947806344	1.70761003618483	2.01469901136439
4.0	1.578	1.86868257630931	1.71173031859398	2.02656380244052
4.0	1.611	1.89065912982957	1.73745471577177	2.04476857087232
4.1	1.647	1.91026426083529	1.76127882537955	2.06012087178634
4.2	1.678	2.0262903695204	1.85355395608052	2.20020739047663
4.2	1.696	1.99951939532885	1.83545140734921	2.1646636115766
4.3	1.735	2.00275724091696	1.84844951798912	2.15803616865218
4.4	1.761	2.08338377873697	1.91552170087923	2.25241791246973
4.4	1.782	2.07829429759609	1.91532360535482	2.24237527738345
4.5	1.823	2.08532147770559	1.93019015254025	2.24147392852732
4.5	1.847	2.23616755523192	2.01147572790795	2.46304710366963
4.6	1.899	2.27212099033327	2.05424388029627	2.4920969740373
4.7	1.868	2.15851371916152	1.99733777479202	2.32083706495483
4.7	1.922	2.28799781114377	2.07495062482069	2.50309663106562
4.8	1.971	2.33867055627235	2.12501701842111	2.55443052677637
4.9	2.012	2.35653113050047	2.14363842692904	2.57154891369664
4.9	1.991	2.27120280544122	2.11442000229491	2.42913009446133
5.0	2.042	2.35721305027115	2.12515300418614	2.59184250584076
5.2	2.088	2.33556517806391	2.1921695917143	2.47996155907014
5.4	2.187	2.44605734856162	2.30495926961499	2.5881731975959
5.7	2.299	2.53751663778179	2.39927281801784	2.67678173673986
5.9	2.384	2.72522978923641	2.52219987933231	2.93056834721482
5.9	2.378	2.70828922126647	2.536270800979	2.88189040518176
6.2	2.485	2.80140028667744	2.59088429613823	3.01450047676037
6.4	2.571	2.92655912909125	2.71050321356244	3.14544208004069
6.4	2.538	2.82731772837245	2.66143193842869	2.99479672031904
6.7	2.634	2.89656607848679	2.74017954233075	3.05448245147201
6.7	2.613	2.9385864916679	2.75930563857477	3.11980598415884
6.9	2.723	3.02785762480844	2.86017617326357	3.1973621081399
6.9	2.696	3.01978737529648	2.84040115797944	3.20118969546209
7.0	2.794	3.09519475290331	2.90380092402978	3.28902048668612
7.2	2.796	3.22496080708984	3.02461235970593	3.42799240767138
7.2	2.841	3.17015903652691	3.00286762940389	3.33928667351814
7.4	2.865	3.28750316351032	3.09219184600308	3.48545428501178
7.7	2.947	3.22013997565624	3.07986528454431	3.36181947669158
7.7	2.969	3.32732645641777	3.15677896906672	3.49990320999482
7.9	3.001	3.28379006733051	3.14776544254888	3.42117620570225
8.2	3.067	3.34459590874092	3.21573926949913	3.47471213316007
8.2	3.069	3.33178754032322	3.20686151282711	3.45785409800992
8.4	3.119	3.34540295539217	3.23713868103445	3.45457875360571
8.4	3.123	3.32268831732034	3.22111665020265	3.42503319920012
8.7	3.184	3.40606413429706	3.27721220129166	3.5362527910809
8.9	3.230	3.44609371914482	3.32067203785228	3.57282731929656
9.2	3.266	3.45818190192933	3.34704473939069	3.57037121927128
9.2	3.168	3.35089711680997	3.25760255629781	3.44489561310906
9.4	3.313	3.48483432888742	3.38532039058208	3.58521156679138
9.7	3.345	3.50795525222726	3.41360784472556	3.60310039049072
9.7	3.304	3.48157817080213	3.39519421624188	3.56859529163066
9.9	3.373	3.51146594801064	3.42976630258417	3.59378597361921
9.9	3.339	3.53027176253366	3.44136729636999	3.61986316375164
10.4	3.410	3.66293704477277	3.55180156139969	3.77520389002696
10.9	3.495	3.67907358863009	3.59402712036146	3.76480711809601
11.2	3.537	3.70534685664437	3.62422912995439	3.78710066485037
11.4	3.582	3.89861798924768	3.75748782723826	4.04171955315192
11.9	3.652	3.8587288877429	3.74869938625746	3.97001177137447
12.2	3.690	4.02087949562038	3.86756952947725	4.17666904948008
12.4	3.716	3.95467234451016	3.83750184389217	4.07331306640581
12.7	3.745	4.18851084442188	3.99047809709352	4.3908515952037
13.4	3.843	4.02109089988633	3.9318821925945	4.11121851788885
13.7	3.861	4.08489085041819	3.97997015188661	4.19109916276121
13.9	3.909	4.30162377378143	4.1264866041262	4.4804501630435
14.4	3.969	4.26668648151288	4.13397354687703	4.40160141693772
15.7	4.023	4.14554122687042	4.08612889353583	4.20541646138547
15.9	4.047	4.16459222158379	4.10754447608477	4.22207158856469
16.4	4.058	4.14016132277862	4.09136833979979	4.18928170211686
16.9	4.105	4.22322240366503	4.16162255499082	4.28536529735085
17.4	4.109	4.315289679359	4.22173685984228	4.41011558350404
17.7	4.125	4.409797728153	4.28272446339804	4.53926633981225
17.9	4.135	4.39277004634794	4.27766099113181	4.50986121481503
18.4	4.149	4.381018262781	4.27676036874391	4.48694510379246
18.7	4.159	4.44810383586292	4.31933052084762	4.57947067490774
19.4	4.186	4.32345073644552	4.25770152356853	4.38990144399743
19.7	4.191	4.26987570207635	4.22513155528247	4.31494905066598
19.9	4.201	4.31105804875751	4.25923226487473	4.36333038333635
20.4	4.186	4.31177597166753	4.25509344074727	4.36899534490868
21.2	4.187	4.29933427141582	4.24930881860885	4.34978920136408
21.9	4.213	4.45164745623202	4.34468337332806	4.560680932355
26.9	4.215	4.2212323657386	4.20881792185101	4.23367996533642
27.9	4.220	4.22741857052824	4.21597825113049	4.23888766388946
28.2	4.215	4.23067285599664	4.22142489221736	4.23993962488827
28.9	4.227	4.24157480151514	4.22975828756282	4.2534231667321
29.2	4.223	4.23835494517636	4.22707008837485	4.24966894477696
29.9	4.233	4.23784909044217	4.20578471740263	4.27016205622213

Return to Figure 3

Figure 4. Stock Effect of the Treasury LSAP Program on Zero-Coupon Yields

maturity	Actual yield	Estimated counterfactual yield	Estimated counterfactual upper confidence interval	Estimated counterfactual lower confidence interval
0.5	0.00186749010016344	0.00673005007568392	0.0038427817882163	0.00961287046188452
1.0	0.00375437569602654	0.00739858908599197	0.00554415077267089	0.00923755937526524
1.5	0.00618464289318423	0.00943983770642179	0.00788695511794151	0.0109829494885331
2.0	0.00885212799093613	0.0120362335128202	0.0105012933185326	0.0135622341328539
2.5	0.0115743667001278	0.0147776323055056	0.0131778880355147	0.0163645525198717
3.0	0.0142455819586503	0.0174670850975391	0.0158019298797703	0.0191147053494101
3.5	0.016807166860703	0.0200173686082337	0.0183136326775774	0.0217007087630893
4.0	0.019229221334227	0.0223963455433761	0.0206848304122431	0.0240873755802853
4.5	0.0214990572533533	0.0245984579332225	0.0229051794014729	0.0262736934652718
5.0	0.0236140847499648	0.0266301089277623	0.0249740906300904	0.0282722973583679
5.5	0.0255774440543144	0.0285023565923604	0.0268960647597444	0.0300999471075153
6.0	0.0273953509039449	0.0302274077946217	0.02867803589822	0.0317733875715881
6.5	0.0290755060461381	0.0318170508954565	0.0303278922746936	0.0333077697473781
7.0	0.0306261612934918	0.0332820507413966	0.031853679579876	0.0347162376489539
7.5	0.0320555873298656	0.0346320007832724	0.0332631949517293	0.0360100054341011
8.0	0.0333717846700797	0.0358753761741765	0.0345638002962532	0.0371986081989266
8.5	0.0345823396091411	0.0370196618279451	0.0357623553784519	0.0382901858400849
9.0	0.0356943648320163	0.038071496382402	0.0368652135342636	0.0392917435340424
9.5	0.0367144879468239	0.0390368067170749	0.0378782477597844	0.0402093710765683
10.0	0.0376488658411744	0.0399209240807666	0.0388068894294247	0.0410484199615443
10.5	0.0385032117853871	0.0407286804419911	0.039656170232801	0.0418136433258944
11.0	0.0392828277253352	0.0414644868174412	0.0404307626405163	0.0425093054732446
11.5	0.0399926375479907	0.0421323963541672	0.0411350168215251	0.0431392673569341
12.0	0.0406372190964399	0.0427361550049889	0.04177299333285	0.0437070534211663
12.5	0.0412208338784763	0.0432792423193018	0.0423484916112246	0.0442159041185922
13.0	0.0417474540777442	0.0437649044451659	0.0428650746219895	0.0446688174563868
13.5	0.0422207868394327	0.0441961810228512	0.0433260901399518	0.0450685821313444
14.0	0.0426442959871517	0.0445759272898187	0.0437346891503774	0.0454178041945647
14.5	0.0430212214092033	0.0449068324227394	0.0440938418218375	0.0457189287125678
15.0	0.043354596376496	0.045191434909259	0.0444063514466057	0.0459742575344523
15.5	0.0436472630478985	0.0454321355613505	0.0446748666844091	0.0461859640070913
16.0	0.0439018863977266	0.0456312086430918	0.0449018923891213	0.0463561052802514
16.5	0.0441209667732579	0.0457908114794256	0.0450897992485378	0.0464866326937439
17.0	0.0443068512625703	0.0459129928313249	0.0452408324254735	0.0465794006262679
17.5	0.0444617440270701	0.0459997002607961	0.0453571193537226	0.0466361741008066
18.0	0.0445877157299009	0.0460527866616731	0.0454406768140877	0.0466586353771427
18.5	0.0446867121713401	0.0460740160956436	0.0454934173927527	0.0466483897130282
19.0	0.0447605622251897	0.0460650690447515	0.0455171554058076	0.0466069704379097
19.5	0.0448109851558057	0.0460275471697194	0.045513612358896	0.0465358434540471
20.0	0.0448395973834163	0.0459629776463456	0.0454844219990364	0.0464364112572674
20.5	0.0448479187554173	0.0458728171387996	0.0454311350060874	0.0463100165519193
21.0	0.0448373783730624	0.0457584554580422	0.045355223363596	0.0461579455206801
21.5	0.0448093200161098	0.0456212189451691	0.045258084442527	0.0459814307988457
22.0	0.0447650072022801	0.0454623736127459	0.0451410448262946	0.0457816541939523
22.5	0.0447056279136295	0.0452831280717882	0.0450053639013825	0.0455597491845465
23.0	0.0446322990179667	0.0450846362676686	0.0448522372344509	0.0453168032262505
23.5	0.0445460704101021	0.0448680000446717	0.0446827997540322	0.0450538598886783
24.0	0.0444479288948987	0.0446342715560133	0.044498128752609	0.0447719208430233
24.5	0.0443388018317011	0.0443844555337491	0.0442992467229363	0.0444719477170779
25.0	0.044219560557681	0.044119511431021	0.0440871240408581	0.0441548638319326
25.5	0.0440910236058809	0.0438403554474528	0.0438626815055076	0.043821555832527
26.0	0.043953959732233	0.0435478624471336	0.043626792746625	0.0434728752225006
26.5	0.0438090907645115	0.0432428677774787	0.0433802865077435	0.043109639812357
27.0	0.043657094285037	0.0429261689962898	0.0431239488131509	0.0427326350887555
27.5	0.0434986061579417	0.0425985275135121	0.0428585250258038	0.0423426155117307
28.0	0.043334222910921	0.0422606701534873	0.0425847218027399	0.0419403057457932
28.5	0.0431645039806049	0.0419132906429021	0.0423032089539823	0.0415264018301403
29.0	0.0429899738299858	0.0415570510291166	0.0420146212104443	0.0411015722925933
29.5	0.0428111239457058	0.0411925830331114	0.0417195599059153	0.0406664592113526
30.0	0.0426284147224431	0.0408204893409058	0.0414185945778301	0.0402216792282161

Return to Figure 4

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