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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for FEDS 2013-23

Made Poorer by Choice: Worker Outcomes in Social Security v. Private Retirement Accounts

Javed I. Ahmed, Brad M. Barber, and Terrance Odean

Figure 1: Cohort mortality

Year Age N Living % Living
2000 21 3615 100%
2001 22 3612 100%
2002 23 3611 100%
2003 24 3606 100%
2004 25 3603 100%
2005 26 3598 100%
2006 27 3595 99%
2007 28 3592 99%
2008 29 3588 99%
2009 30 3586 99%
2010 31 3583 99%
2011 32 3575 99%
2012 33 3568 99%
2013 34 3562 99%
2014 35 3555 98%
2015 36 3551 98%
2016 37 3548 98%
2017 38 3539 98%
2018 39 3533 98%
2019 40 3526 98%
2020 41 3522 97%
2021 42 3517 97%
2022 43 3510 97%
2023 44 3496 97%
2024 45 3489 97%
2025 46 3485 96%
2026 47 3481 96%
2027 48 3472 96%
2028 49 3456 96%
2029 50 3444 95%
2030 51 3436 95%
2031 52 3421 95%
2032 53 3408 94%
2033 54 3396 94%
2034 55 3380 93%
2035 56 3365 93%
2036 57 3343 92%
2037 58 3329 92%
2038 59 3309 92%
2039 60 3282 91%
2040 61 3255 90%
2041 62 3229 89%
2042 63 3190 88%
2043 64 3143 87%
2044 65 3102 86%
2045 66 3060 85%
2046 67 3017 83%
2047 68 2969 82%
2048 69 2919 81%
2049 70 2866 79%
2050 71 2811 78%
2051 72 2753 76%
2052 73 2691 74%
2053 74 2634 73%
2054 75 2565 71%
2055 76 2495 69%
2056 77 2421 67%
2057 78 2339 65%
2058 79 2252 62%
2059 80 2165 60%
2060 81 2076 57%
2061 82 1979 55%
2062 83 1879 52%
2063 84 1764 49%
2064 85 1640 45%
2065 86 1521 42%
2066 87 1392 39%
2067 88 1258 35%
2068 89 1131 31%
2069 90 1003 28%
2070 91 881 24%
2071 92 764 21%
2072 93 655 18%
2073 94 559 15%
2074 95 464 13%
2075 96 372 10%
2076 97 301 8%
2077 98 244 7%
2078 99 190 5%
2079 100 156 4%

Figure 3: Stock Allocation in Retirement Accounts

Percentile Equity Share
0 0.00%
1 0.00%
2 0.00%
3 0.00%
4 0.00%
5 0.00%
6 0.00%
7 0.00%
8 0.00%
9 0.00%
10 0.00%
11 0.00%
12 0.00%
13 0.79%
14 3.68%
15 5.10%
16 8.67%
17 10.00%
18 11.09%
19 14.08%
20 15.03%
21 17.39%
22 18.71%
23 20.00%
24 20.00%
25 21.46%
26 23.00%
27 24.18%
28 25.00%
29 25.00%
30 26.00%
31 27.03%
32 28.63%
33 30.00%
34 30.00%
35 30.87%
36 32.14%
37 33.02%
38 34.29%
39 35.00%
40 36.00%
41 37.50%
42 38.33%
43 39.62%
44 40.00%
45 41.00%
46 42.00%
47 43.00%
48 44.24%
49 45.50%
50 46.36%
51 48.00%
52 49.00%
53 50.00%
54 50.00%
55 50.00%
56 50.00%
57 50.00%
58 50.00%
59 50.00%
60 51.00%
61 53.33%
62 55.05%
63 57.14%
64 58.59%
65 60.00%
66 60.00%
67 60.00%
68 60.04%
69 61.88%
70 65.00%
71 65.79%
72 68.00%
73 70.00%
74 70.59%
75 73.56%
76 75.00%
77 75.89%
78 78.92%
79 80.00%
80 80.85%
81 83.33%
82 86.67%
83 90.00%
84 92.02%
85 97.39%
86 100.00%
87 100.00%
88 100.00%
89 100.00%
90 100.00%
91 100.00%
92 100.00%
93 100.00%
94 100.00%
95 100.00%
96 100.00%
97 100.00%
98 100.00%
99 100.00%
100 100.00%

Figure 4: Distribution of Variable Annuity Payout by Age

  Mean Q1 Median Q3
66 6.178 5.621 6.13 6.677
67 6.368 5.525 6.27 7.085
68 6.545 5.494 6.389 7.412
69 6.743 5.482 6.529 7.768
70 6.953 5.484 6.683 8.091
71 7.143 5.521 6.803 8.382
72 7.347 5.533 6.941 8.705
73 7.594 5.57 7.1 9.06
74 7.825 5.619 7.242 9.428
75 8.076 5.651 7.412 9.747
76 8.32 5.681 7.59 10.142
77 8.592 5.75 7.786 10.54
78 8.852 5.794 7.938 10.899
79 9.107 5.842 8.125 11.295
80 9.392 5.86 8.214 11.686
81 9.668 5.883 8.467 12.023
82 9.964 5.969 8.686 12.452
83 10.27 6.056 8.872 12.789
84 10.577 6.114 9.07 13.187
85 10.879 6.198 9.273 13.551
86 11.235 6.329 9.491 13.978
87 11.562 6.39 9.67 14.387
88 11.928 6.503 9.921 14.884
89 12.27 6.583 10.153 15.289
90 12.658 6.639 10.319 15.913
91 13.058 6.705 10.572 16.399
92 13.433 6.773 10.769 16.83
93 13.846 6.921 11.01 17.314
94 14.265 7.064 11.262 17.621
95 14.693 7.099 11.44 18.253
96 15.146 7.245 11.706 18.895
97 15.568 7.315 11.965 19.301
98 16.013 7.366 12.3 19.861
99 16.458 7.45 12.438 20.521
100 16.943 7.527 12.663 21.125
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