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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 201369

Learning from the Test: Raising Selective College Enrollment by Providing Information

Sarena F. Goodman

Figure 1: Average ACT Participation Rates

Year Early-Adopters (CO [2002]/IL [2002]) Later-Adopters (KY [2010]/MI [2008]/TN [2010]) 20 Non-mandate ACT States
1994 65 64.3333333333333 65.25
1996 63.5 67.6666666666667 63.6
1998 66 70.6666666666667 67.4
2000 68 73.3333333333333 69.75
2002 99 73 68.2
2004 99.5 76.6666666666667 70.95
2006 100 78.6666666666667 70.65
2008 99 86.6666666666667 71.2
2010 100 100 74.35

Figure 2: ACT Score Distribution

ACT Score Panel 1 1994-2000 Average Panel 1 2004 Panel 1 ACT Score Panel 2 1994-2000 Average Panel 2 2004 Panel 2 ACT Score Panel 3 1994-2000 Average Panel 3 2004 Panel 3 ACT Score Panel 4 1994-2000 Average Panel 4 2004 Panel 4
0 #N/A! #N/A! 0 #N/A! #N/A! 0 #N/A! #N/A! 0 #N/A! #N/A!
1 #N/A! #N/A! 1 #N/A! #N/A! 1 #N/A! #N/A! 1 #N/A! #N/A!
2 #N/A! #N/A! 2 #N/A! #N/A! 2 #N/A! #N/A! 2 #N/A! #N/A!
3 #N/A! #N/A! 3 #N/A! #N/A! 3 #N/A! #N/A! 3 #N/A! #N/A!
4 #N/A! #N/A! 4 #N/A! #N/A! 4 #N/A! #N/A! 4 2.136378 #N/A!
5 #N/A! 2 5 #N/A! 2 5 #N/A! #N/A! 5 #N/A! #N/A!
6 #N/A! 4 6 2.222154 4 6 #N/A! #N/A! 6 2.136378 #N/A!
7 #N/A! 2 7 3.333231 8 7 #N/A! 2 7 #N/A! #N/A!
8 #N/A! 10 8 2.777693 6 8 4.234153 4 8 2.136378 2
9 7.543257 32 9 11.11077 74 9 4.234153 4 9 7.477323 20
10 11.94349 136 10 46.1097 348 10 28.05127 34 10 28.30701 56
11 60.34606 636 11 294.991 1834 11 146.6076 136 11 209.365 266
12 229.4407 1638 12 1017.747 4788 12 548.3228 558 12 811.2896 856
13 475.2252 2336 13 2052.159 7168 13 1357.046 1212 13 1944.638 1988
14 790.1562 2732 14 3006.575 8414 14 2198.055 2060 14 3464.671 3266
15 1162.919 3290 15 3903.769 9234 15 3217.427 2926 15 4857.055 4706
16 1542.596 3584 16 4513.751 9754 16 4191.282 4066 16 6327.418 6468
17 1856.898 3482 17 5130.954 10022 17 5122.796 4658 17 7906.201 8156
18 2163.029 3774 18 5825.377 9888 18 5728.809 5352 18 9279.358 9308
19 2330.866 3664 19 6057.037 9224 19 6013.027 5778 19 9781.941 9842
20 2430.186 3554 20 6179.255 8714 20 5998.207 5774 20 10249.81 10296
21 2417.614 3276 21 6149.256 8122 21 5940.517 5800 21 10226.31 10018
22 2285.607 3046 22 5765.379 7872 22 5623.485 5556 22 9403.802 9496
23 2105.197 2788 23 5247.061 6646 23 4939.669 5296 23 8876.651 8980
24 1958.104 2640 24 4857.073 6490 24 4651.747 4678 24 7757.189 8280
25 1755.065 2118 25 4537.639 5482 25 4198.163 4050 25 6883.944 7080
26 1498.594 2210 26 3868.215 4860 26 3392.615 3536 26 5711.073 6060
27 1228.922 1634 27 3307.676 4144 27 2846.41 2734 27 4903.522 4852
28 986.9095 1458 28 2910.466 3368 28 2393.355 2188 28 3815.571 3930
29 719.1239 1016 29 2206.599 2726 29 1837.093 1676 29 2732.428 2920
30 567.6301 816 30 1820.5 2154 30 1363.397 1364 30 2761.269 2594
31 386.5919 550 31 1357.181 1542 31 996.6138 832 31 1835.683 1664
32 266.5284 380 32 979.4144 1158 32 651.0011 650 32 1170.201 1114
33 133.2642 256 33 559.9828 748 33 378.4274 352 33 645.7203 778
34 58.46024 166 34 273.325 404 34 154.5466 212 34 291.0815 424
35 16.97233 60 35 103.8857 230 35 46.04642 100 35 90.79607 230
36 2.514419 10 36 11.85149 40 36 9.526845 16 36 18.69331 34

Figure 3a: Overall College Attendance in the United States by State of Residence

Year Freshmen enrollees from early-adopting states (CO/IL) Freshmen enrollees from other ACT states
1994 149854 638021
1996 145685 659947
1998 152572 678357
2000 171766 807538
2002 182862 867817
2004 175816 842634
2006 173235 831663
2008 179603 871062
2010 188546 940293

Figure 3b: Selective College Attendance in the United States by State of Residence

Year Freshmen enrollees from early-adopting states (CO/IL) Freshmen enrollees from other ACT states
1994 60624 286549
1996 62388 300340
1998 67890 321197
2000 69364 334619
2002 75507 338921
2004 78315 343374
2006 81917 343939
2008 85949 356357
2010 87804 363654

Figure 4: Implied Test taking Thresholds for Various Estimates of the Return to College Quality

Return to attending a selective college $ (log scale) Implied test-taking threshold Estimated E(P*LE)
0 100 16
0.001 15000 16
0.002 7500 16
0.003 5000 16
0.004 3750 16
0.005 3000 16
0.006 2500 16
0.007 2142.85714285714 16
0.008 1875 16
0.009 1666.66666666667 16
0.01 1500 16
0.02 750 16
0.03 500 16
0.04 375 16
0.05 300 16
0.06 250 16
0.07 214.285714285714 16
0.08 187.5 16
0.09 166.666666666667 16
0.1 150 16
0.2 75 16
0.3 50 16
0.4 37.5 16
0.5 30 16
0.6 25 16
0.7 21.4285714285714 16
0.8 18.75 16
0.9 16.6666666666667 16
1 15 16
2 7.5 16
3 5 16
4 3.75 16
5 3 16
6 2.5 16
7 2.14285714285714 16
8 1.875 16
9 1.66666666666667 16
10 1.5 16
11 1.36363636363636 16
12 1.25 16
13 1.15384615384615 16
14 1.07142857142857 16
15 1 16
16 0.9375 16
17 0.882352941176471 16
18 0.833333333333333 16
19 0.789473684210526 16
20 0.75 16
21 0.714285714285714 16
22 0.681818181818182 16
23 0.652173913043478 16
24 0.625 16
25 0.6 16
26 0.576923076923077 16
27 0.555555555555556 16
28 0.535714285714286 16
29 0.517241379310345 16
30 0.5 16
31 0.483870967741935 16
32 0.46875 16
33 0.454545454545455 16
34 0.441176470588235 16
35 0.428571428571429 16
36 0.416666666666667 16
37 0.405405405405405 16
38 0.394736842105263 16
39 0.384615384615385 16
40 0.375 16
41 0.365853658536585 16
42 0.357142857142857 16
43 0.348837209302326 16
44 0.340909090909091 16
45 0.333333333333333 16
46 0.326086956521739 16
47 0.319148936170213 16
48 0.3125 16
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50 0.3 16
51 0.294117647058824 16
52 0.288461538461538 16
53 0.283018867924528 16
54 0.277777777777778 16
55 0.272727272727273 16
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57 0.263157894736842 16
58 0.258620689655172 16
59 0.254237288135593 16
60 0.25 16
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62 0.241935483870968 16
63 0.238095238095238 16
64 0.234375 16
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67 0.223880597014925 16
68 0.220588235294118 16
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70 0.214285714285714 16
71 0.211267605633803 16
72 0.208333333333333 16
73 0.205479452054795 16
74 0.202702702702703 16
75 0.2 16
76 0.197368421052632 16
77 0.194805194805195 16
78 0.192307692307692 16
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80 0.1875 16
81 0.185185185185185 16
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84 0.178571428571429 16
85 0.176470588235294 16
86 0.174418604651163 16
87 0.172413793103448 16
88 0.170454545454545 16
89 0.168539325842697 16
90 0.166666666666667 16
91 0.164835164835165 16
92 0.16304347826087 16
93 0.161290322580645 16
94 0.159574468085106 16
95 0.157894736842105 16
96 0.15625 16
97 0.154639175257732 16
98 0.153061224489796 16
99 0.151515151515152 16
100 0.15 16
101 0.148514851485149 16
102 0.147058823529412 16
103 0.145631067961165 16
104 0.144230769230769 16
105 0.142857142857143 16
106 0.141509433962264 16
107 0.14018691588785 16
108 0.138888888888889 16
109 0.137614678899083 16
110 0.136363636363636 16
111 0.135135135135135 16
112 0.133928571428571 16
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115 0.130434782608696 16
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117 0.128205128205128 16
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123 0.121951219512195 16
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128 0.1171875 16
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195 0.0769230769230769 16
196 0.076530612244898 16
197 0.0761421319796954 16
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200 0.075 16
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203 0.0738916256157636 16
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214 0.0700934579439252 16
215 0.0697674418604651 16
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217 0.0691244239631336 16
218 0.0688073394495413 16
219 0.0684931506849315 16
220 0.0681818181818182 16
221 0.0678733031674208 16
222 0.0675675675675676 16
223 0.0672645739910314 16
224 0.0669642857142857 16
225 0.0666666666666667 16
226 0.0663716814159292 16
227 0.066079295154185 16
228 0.0657894736842105 16
229 0.0655021834061135 16
230 0.0652173913043478 16
231 0.0649350649350649 16
232 0.0646551724137931 16
233 0.0643776824034335 16
234 0.0641025641025641 16
235 0.0638297872340425 16
236 0.0635593220338983 16
237 0.0632911392405063 16
238 0.0630252100840336 16
239 0.0627615062761506 16
240 0.0625 16
241 0.0622406639004149 16
242 0.0619834710743802 16
243 0.0617283950617284 16
244 0.0614754098360656 16
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284 0.0528169014084507 16
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304 0.0493421052631579 16
305 0.0491803278688525 16
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320 0.046875 16
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325 0.0461538461538462 16
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506 0.0296442687747036 16
507 0.029585798816568 16
508 0.0295275590551181 16
509 0.0294695481335953 16
510 0.0294117647058824 16
511 0.0293542074363992 16
512 0.029296875 16
513 0.0292397660818713 16
514 0.0291828793774319 16
515 0.029126213592233 16
516 0.0290697674418605 16
517 0.0290135396518375 16
518 0.028957528957529 16
519 0.0289017341040462 16
520 0.0288461538461538 16
521 0.0287907869481766 16
522 0.028735632183908 16
523 0.0286806883365201 16
524 0.0286259541984733 16
525 0.0285714285714286 16
526 0.0285171102661597 16
527 0.0284629981024668 16
528 0.0284090909090909 16
529 0.0283553875236295 16
530 0.0283018867924528 16
531 0.0282485875706215 16
532 0.0281954887218045 16
533 0.0281425891181989 16
534 0.0280898876404494 16
535 0.0280373831775701 16
536 0.0279850746268657 16
537 0.0279329608938547 16
538 0.0278810408921933 16
539 0.0278293135435993 16
540 0.0277777777777778 16
541 0.0277264325323475 16
542 0.0276752767527675 16
543 0.0276243093922652 16
544 0.0275735294117647 16
545 0.0275229357798165 16
546 0.0274725274725275 16
547 0.0274223034734918 16
548 0.0273722627737226 16
549 0.0273224043715847 16
550 0.0272727272727273 16
551 0.0272232304900181 16
552 0.0271739130434783 16
553 0.027124773960217 16
554 0.0270758122743682 16
555 0.027027027027027 16
556 0.026978417266187 16
557 0.0269299820466786 16
558 0.0268817204301075 16
559 0.0268336314847943 16
560 0.0267857142857143 16
561 0.0267379679144385 16
562 0.0266903914590747 16
563 0.0266429840142096 16
564 0.0265957446808511 16
565 0.0265486725663717 16
566 0.0265017667844523 16
567 0.0264550264550265 16
568 0.0264084507042254 16
569 0.0263620386643234 16
570 0.0263157894736842 16
571 0.0262697022767075 16
572 0.0262237762237762 16
573 0.0261780104712042 16

Appendix Figure 1: Average ACT Participation Rates

Year Early-Adopters (CO [2002]/IL [2002]) Published Participation Rates Early-Adopters (CO [2002]/IL [2002]) Participation Rates Constructed from Matched ACT-CCD Data ACT States (excl. Early-Adopters) Published Participation Rates ACT States (excl. Early-Adopters) Participation Rates Constructed from Matched ACT-CCD Data Neighboring ACT States Published Participation Rates Neighboring ACT States Participation Rates Constructed from Matched ACT-CCD Data
1994 65 60.6399 65.1304347826087 61.68269 66.4444444444444 62.91358
1996 63.5 59.8 64.1304347826087 60.39481 64.7777777777778 61.01782
1998 66 56.28275 67.8260869565217 57.10189 67.4444444444444 57.4594
2000 68 63.22649 70.2173913043478 61.26093 70.2222222222222 61.46684
2002 99 #N/A! 68.8260869565217 #N/A! 68.3333333333333 #N/A!
2004 99.5 101.6655 71.695652173913 60.25371 70 59.86119

Appendix Figure 2: 2000 Enrollment Distribution by Selectivity

Selectivity Category Percent of first-time freshmen enrollees in U.S. institutions in 2000
most competitive 2.5
highly competitive 5.1
very competitive 11.2
competitive 17.3
less competitive 7.5
noncompetitive 56.4

Appendix Figure 3: Simulated Pass Rates for Compliers

c Simulated share of CO compliers that pass Simulated share of IL compliers that pass Estimated share of CO compliers that attend competitive colleges Estimated share of IL compliers that attend competitive colleges
0 0 0 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.01 0.152393 0.144269 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.02 0.314938 0.299377 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.03 0.487654 0.46016 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.04 0.660123 0.625341 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.05 0.8386 0.793474 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.06 1.0201 0.969596 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.07 1.201148 1.149131 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.08 1.392537 1.328817 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.09 1.583686 1.513899 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.1 1.775875 1.702314 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.11 1.973432 1.892605 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.12 2.175995 2.081204 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.13 2.378351 2.275643 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.14 2.588823 2.47344 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.15 2.799352 2.675502 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.16 3.010975 2.876224 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.17 3.228016 3.087151 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.18 3.446682 3.291638 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.19 3.6651 3.499047 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.2 3.886467 3.711948 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.21 4.11167 3.927562 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.22 4.338505 4.148794 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.23 4.566176 4.360844 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.24 4.799897 4.584319 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.25 5.033468 4.80616 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.26 5.27618 5.03266 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.27 5.521971 5.259306 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.28 5.771326 5.495131 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.29 6.016621 5.734559 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.3 6.263628 5.969392 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.31 6.513842 6.209754 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.32 6.759152 6.457819 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.33 7.013281 6.705825 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.34 7.275305 6.956468 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.35 7.536036 7.212378 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.36 7.800481 7.459691 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.37 8.076341 7.721605 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.38 8.347939 7.980665 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.39 8.630997 8.247474 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.4 8.905358 8.508346 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.41 9.182373 8.772688 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.42 9.474086 9.044348 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.43 9.757803 9.318311 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.44 10.049146 9.598077 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.45 10.34561 9.885353 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.46 10.628214 10.16246 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.47 10.930824 10.459077 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.48 11.237576 10.746668 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.49 11.531697 11.042872 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.5 11.846943 11.353655 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.51 12.173418 11.654209 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.52 12.49739 11.96357 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.53 12.820068 12.283092 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.54 13.144671 12.606711 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.55 13.47924 12.930467 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.56 13.821011 13.251285 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.57 14.155817 13.580437 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.58 14.518982 13.914348 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.59 14.882379 14.252983 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.6 15.24536 14.594824 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.61 15.621747 14.937336 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.62 15.990638 15.291458 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.63 16.360626 15.655556 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.64 16.748042 16.029567 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.65 17.142112 16.410601 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.66 17.526176 16.783042 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.67 17.933679 17.175051 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.68 18.325403 17.565684 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.69 18.744555 17.972222 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.7 19.166215 18.384314 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.71 19.590335 18.807029 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.72 20.046007 19.226225 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.73 20.505214 19.668493 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.74 20.974333 20.113314 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.75 21.451645 20.565185 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.76 21.930048 21.040965 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.77 22.436297 21.513 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.78 22.937552 22.000099 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.79 23.456998 22.503414 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.8 24.000745 23.026483 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.81 24.572919 23.577334 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.82 25.16439 24.132814 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.83 25.754305 24.695767 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.84 26.383402 25.288856 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.85 27.040685 25.889972 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.86 27.721716 26.517699 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.87 28.427326 27.208322 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.88 29.174056 27.918062 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.89 29.953912 28.6681 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.9 30.765396 29.463487 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.91 31.622124 30.305039 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.92 32.556107 31.203681 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.93 33.581235 32.188117 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.94 34.701075 33.244903 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.95 35.915749 34.415576 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.96 37.324263 35.786208 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.97 38.984443 37.403131 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.98 41.088818 39.438629 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
0.99 44.116507 42.336334 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556
1 61.514663 59.39736 8.72592582483021 9.44190575932556

Appendix Figure 4: Effect of Mandates on Subcategories of Selective Enrollment, Allowing Phase In

Category (share of freshmen enrollment in category in the treatment states in 2000) Effect on log first-time freshmen enrollment in category controlling for log overall enrollment ACT mandate in place less than 4 years lowerbound of 95% confidence interval Effect on log first-time freshmen enrollment in category controlling for log overall enrollment ACT mandate in place less than 4 years main estimate Effect on log first-time freshmen enrollment in category controlling for log overall enrollment ACT mandate in place less than 4 years upperbound of 95% confidence interval Effect on log first-time freshmen enrollment in category controlling for log overall enrollment ACT mandate in place greater than or equal to 4 years lowerbound of 95% confidence interval Effect on log first-time freshmen enrollment in category controlling for log overall enrollment ACT mandate in place greater than or equal to 4 years main estimate Effect on log first-time freshmen enrollment in category controlling for log overall enrollment ACT mandate in place greater than or equal to 4 years upperbound of 95% confidence interval
Public In-State (23%) 0.012 0.065 0.118 -0.0025 0.104 0.2105
Private In-State (7%) 0.117 0.187 0.257 0.0845 0.436 0.7875
Public Out-of-State (5%) 0.018 0.099 0.18 0.219 0.357 0.495
Private Out-of-State (6%) 0.0415 0.152 0.2625 0.097 0.268 0.439
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