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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 2014-22

Demand for M2 at the Zero Lower Bound: The Recent U.S. Experience

Ruth Judson, Bernd Schlusche, and Vivian Wong

Figure 1 Data: M2 Velocity and Opportunity Cost

Quarter Velocity Opportunity Cost
4/1/64 1.683655399849 1.24946217
7/1/64 1.67560303126672 1.25437334
10/1/64 1.65529467531723 1.42803976
1/1/65 1.67124235147029 1.5836315
4/1/65 1.67385646809138 1.51727897
7/1/65 1.68177551934179 1.48671722
10/1/65 1.69602559416231 1.74394952
1/1/66 1.71615798536375 2.16058077
4/1/66 1.71661633347512 2.08988698
7/1/66 1.73542673901096 2.54630261
10/1/66 1.74755233046154 2.74445902
1/1/67 1.74274787145192 2.01012024
4/1/67 1.71204586602293 1.06847448
7/1/67 1.69724637681159 1.72186366
10/1/67 1.6939029535865 2.20139428
1/1/68 1.71804211189012 2.51562939
4/1/68 1.73688535739713 2.97385103
7/1/68 1.73301043310526 2.61629974
10/1/68 1.72538949489136 3.02963264
1/1/69 1.74064875261284 3.57996994
4/1/69 1.75309585716762 3.65611041
7/1/69 1.77760119422531 4.50816218
10/1/69 1.77732282118872 4.89002863
1/1/70 1.79252722324066 4.56780502
4/1/70 1.80853473043772 3.87566334
7/1/70 1.79891086380675 3.47704778
10/1/70 1.75664484979483 2.42102398
1/1/71 1.77431957583026 0.84750262
4/1/71 1.74068615185296 1.27877802
7/1/71 1.72090736779879 2.03809432
10/1/71 1.69439029007568 1.17674347
1/1/72 1.70031742386743 0.37910957
4/1/72 1.70761226136058 0.70756496
7/1/72 1.68285757642178 1.14246726
10/1/72 1.67683647349387 1.76297005
1/1/73 1.69776611879206 2.61345334
4/1/73 1.71497096540044 3.33099036
7/1/73 1.71416487711763 4.43208575
10/1/73 1.74213074204947 3.47353487
1/1/74 1.72858982266103 3.55044681
4/1/74 1.75319392069478 4.18111319
7/1/74 1.76761438154154 4.36015535
10/1/74 1.78508240534521 3.53736768
1/1/75 1.76974539229901 2.17304027
4/1/75 1.74608011243238 1.87690623
7/1/75 1.74303691901462 2.78688607
10/1/75 1.75364990565145 2.06098228
1/1/76 1.7560804003922 1.31336042
4/1/76 1.73519140320282 1.49991747
7/1/76 1.72082650646277 1.45678026
10/1/76 1.70275210822207 0.85852483
1/1/77 1.69274827967038 0.86785353
4/1/77 1.70430592322965 1.02546351
7/1/77 1.71626216340526 1.59148946
10/1/77 1.71815776270029 2.18316805
1/1/78 1.71775392751594 2.53029939
4/1/78 1.78390823026416 2.56336236
7/1/78 1.79798081247189 3.03528715
10/1/78 1.82628071810915 3.78439545
1/1/79 1.83570240742088 4.42545229
4/1/79 1.8387670294859 4.33595612
7/1/79 1.84780694267824 4.49531976
10/1/79 1.86184499999577 5.79847529
1/1/80 1.87388465747499 6.74446729
4/1/80 1.84867266764564 3.56834028
7/1/80 1.83296923734636 3.72892803
10/1/80 1.87862417370538 6.63888897
1/1/81 1.93233022089164 6.78288267
4/1/81 1.90274445801329 7.13312932
7/1/81 1.92507004840045 6.76028629
10/1/81 1.88947462308666 4.2143093
1/1/82 1.84218141576667 5.10698472
4/1/82 1.83531210401631 4.81920138
7/1/82 1.82457245041725 2.40040851
10/1/82 1.80606455145779 2.1707876
1/1/83 1.74816994558685 2.59372304
4/1/83 1.75503403470684 2.54494399
7/1/83 1.77999807163863 2.91017177
10/1/83 1.79743177764517 2.5303134
1/1/84 1.81353675493899 2.812623
4/1/84 1.82168375680581 3.14799602
7/1/84 1.83032913395503 3.18444632
10/1/84 1.81707682871356 2.20721143
1/1/85 1.80203340091272 2.14283178
4/1/85 1.79796394839969 1.66779778
7/1/85 1.79831976101813 1.64930963
10/1/85 1.79577218286425 1.64034096
1/1/86 1.79461734085671 1.38564873
4/1/86 1.76338503426167 1.08934307
7/1/86 1.74461114328375 0.89505849
10/1/86 1.72505763262893 0.9372231
1/1/87 1.72257537734133 1.17688131
4/1/87 1.73858683109765 1.25784551
7/1/87 1.75611484065383 1.49952995
10/1/87 1.77961190504521 1.12241887
1/1/88 1.77259625094513 0.97531104
4/1/88 1.77892795737082 1.4791459
7/1/88 1.79371494008869 2.0384896
10/1/88 1.81611815100847 2.48012703
1/1/89 1.84439185807446 2.95525352
4/1/89 1.86527727453287 2.46324961
7/1/89 1.85716914872862 2.10658709
10/1/89 1.83819808421999 2.04047858
1/1/90 1.85224334720121 2.34373423
4/1/90 1.86313649262303 2.31220577
7/1/90 1.86007126257312 2.11050916
10/1/90 1.84449120622062 1.72668082
1/1/91 1.83195211489383 1.19574503
4/1/91 1.83800351031337 1.07993829
7/1/91 1.85343559988688 1.12714671
10/1/91 1.86583169905509 0.7502829
1/1/92 1.87997868829734 0.78471124
4/1/92 1.91164705304813 0.78653912
7/1/92 1.93738300438274 0.5682487
10/1/92 1.95635759074432 0.76500427
1/1/93 1.97694061697604 0.7475172
4/1/93 1.99211416737158 0.87079775
7/1/93 2.00444959500063 0.98459196
10/1/93 2.02973101676816 1.10932164
1/1/94 2.05372955498014 1.31821453
4/1/94 2.08684936225788 1.95641753
7/1/94 2.10923363806957 2.28930758
10/1/94 2.14549758953168 2.86816167
1/1/95 2.16256604026155 3.04755571
4/1/95 2.15958114043187 2.76849456
7/1/95 2.1506308778503 2.55925351
10/1/95 2.15569797866065 2.44744248
1/1/96 2.1550965634007 2.22823029
4/1/96 2.17513841670714 2.36673488
7/1/96 2.18089179749646 2.38390524
10/1/96 2.18967420599271 2.23245532
1/1/97 2.19248055946976 2.34099931
4/1/97 2.20686703253411 2.25154292
7/1/97 2.2079627591131 2.27161186
10/1/97 2.19851785758775 2.27473473
1/1/98 2.18361057208126 2.29965924
4/1/98 2.16919266541623 2.22694686
7/1/98 2.16941889423875 2.07073959
10/1/98 2.15619448019835 1.62752785
1/1/99 2.14739920469771 1.92883021
4/1/99 2.14160162462176 2.01204156
7/1/99 2.1447330866629 2.13114984
10/1/99 2.1629625650577 2.3782594
1/1/00 2.1514914750412 2.74455326
4/1/00 2.16826130653419 2.77449917
7/1/00 2.15969679498907 2.91626262
10/1/00 2.15105150038184 2.87401766
1/1/01 2.10304699221798 1.92511234
4/1/01 2.07711777068002 1.23320156
7/1/01 2.03233789872837 1.13510544
10/1/01 1.99808150895366 0.46165649
1/1/02 1.98858849362782 0.59570544
4/1/02 1.9915271169147 0.62404771
7/1/02 1.9731809732627 0.58887741
10/1/02 1.94440804678199 0.37483452
1/1/03 1.93520263983182 0.52986879
4/1/03 1.92092656200838 0.33870446
7/1/03 1.92483477435729 0.34317146
10/1/03 1.95821114547772 0.3168533
1/1/04 1.97115093367709 0.32421333
4/1/04 1.96098010075597 0.48493501
7/1/04 1.9689080017605 0.81408524
10/1/04 1.97299172411627 1.21054656
1/1/05 2.00094993000401 1.56624015
4/1/05 2.01203255268335 1.71091953
7/1/05 2.0200081576039 2.05111945
10/1/05 2.01851002217094 2.35302672
1/1/06 2.03210299087404 2.74689252
4/1/06 2.03361681751782 2.82304733
7/1/06 2.02194973642487 2.83337696
10/1/06 2.00907817319776 2.71224457
1/1/07 2.00376557199364 2.7666013
4/1/07 1.99723428117895 2.44150926
7/1/07 1.98845415220676 1.94692313
10/1/07 1.97952027812999 1.11521989
1/1/08 1.94098895429592 0.21325074
4/1/08 1.92768701700741 0.39471093
7/1/08 1.90926901211514 0.27818895
10/1/08 1.80951847244682 -0.80563595
1/1/09 1.7343909645674 -0.38708407
4/1/09 1.71116435468665 -0.31674124
7/1/09 1.71183377167407 -0.26580843
10/1/09 1.71996838955961 -0.33113166
1/1/10 1.73439131257161 -0.23207376
4/1/10 1.74216834882795 -0.15933785
7/1/10 1.74502052316683 -0.14567133
10/1/10 1.74087639961511 -0.14025195
1/1/11 1.72168125600045 -0.12216766
4/1/11 1.71592730972042 -0.19349939
7/1/11 1.65604784046049 -0.20559943
10/1/11 1.64811878127868 -0.18445875
1/1/12 1.64542536823534 -0.06794209
4/1/12 1.63661084292666 -0.04577781
7/1/12 1.62027034166723 -0.03753926
10/1/12 1.59014380755934 -0.04687804
1/1/13 1.58067358553143 -0.016245
4/1/13 1.57650899387792 -0.0422413
7/1/13 1.56390155398893 -0.05088451
10/1/13 1.54635111037416 0.01789803

Figure 2 Data: T-Bill Rate the Rate on M2 Components and the Opportunity Cost of M2

Quarter T-bill M2OR M2OC
4/1/64 3.47666667 2.33817829 1.24946217
7/1/64 3.49666667 2.35427674 1.25437334
10/1/64 3.68333333 2.37693063 1.42803976
1/1/65 3.89 2.43900115 1.5836315
4/1/65 3.87333333 2.48777785 1.51727897
7/1/65 3.86666667 2.51130246 1.48671722
10/1/65 4.16666667 2.57096093 1.74394952
1/1/66 4.61 2.62409235 2.16058077
4/1/66 4.58666667 2.67001912 2.08988698
7/1/66 5.04333333 2.70000131 2.54630261
10/1/66 5.21 2.67967479 2.74445902
1/1/67 4.51333333 2.6721082 2.01012024
4/1/67 3.66 2.71196351 1.06847448
7/1/67 4.3 2.73406054 1.72186366
10/1/67 4.75333333 2.7357949 2.20139428
1/1/68 5.05 2.73751594 2.51562939
4/1/68 5.52 2.78200916 2.97385103
7/1/68 5.19666667 2.79345947 2.61629974
10/1/68 5.58666667 2.79804012 3.02963264
1/1/69 6.09333333 2.79227946 3.57996994
4/1/69 6.19666667 2.827774 3.65611041
7/1/69 7.02333333 2.87164554 4.50816218
10/1/69 7.35333333 2.85022557 4.89002863
1/1/70 7.21 3.01679932 4.56780502
4/1/70 6.67666667 3.12754529 3.87566334
7/1/70 6.32666667 3.14720823 3.47704778
10/1/70 5.35333333 3.1572257 2.42102398
1/1/71 3.84 3.12344899 0.84750262
4/1/71 4.25 3.12490987 1.27877802
7/1/71 5.01 3.17280677 2.03809432
10/1/71 4.23 3.2052202 1.17674347
1/1/72 3.43666667 3.1667898 0.37910957
4/1/72 3.77 3.18863273 0.70756496
7/1/72 4.22 3.22925377 1.14246726
10/1/72 4.86333333 3.29126702 1.76297005
1/1/73 5.7 3.3359322 2.61345334
4/1/73 6.60333333 3.59355701 3.33099036
7/1/73 8.32333333 4.37250549 4.43208575
10/1/73 7.5 4.4267136 3.47353487
1/1/74 7.61666667 4.47784759 3.55044681
4/1/74 8.15333333 4.43592623 4.18111319
7/1/74 8.19 4.29896681 4.36015535
10/1/74 7.36 4.20963502 3.53736768
1/1/75 5.75 3.83032191 2.17304027
4/1/75 5.39333333 3.74331102 1.87690623
7/1/75 6.33 3.84096437 2.78688607
10/1/75 5.62666667 3.80952718 2.06098228
1/1/76 4.91666667 3.7975937 1.31336042
4/1/76 5.15666667 3.86734059 1.49991747
7/1/76 5.15 3.90310033 1.45678026
10/1/76 4.67333333 3.99374889 0.85852483
1/1/77 4.63 3.93806738 0.86785353
4/1/77 4.84 4.00405563 1.02546351
7/1/77 5.49666667 4.13963486 1.59148946
10/1/77 6.11 4.20704738 2.18316805
1/1/78 6.39333333 4.16594944 2.53029939
4/1/78 6.47666667 4.22321635 2.56336236
7/1/78 7.31333333 4.66143582 3.03528715
10/1/78 8.57 5.29329557 3.78439545
1/1/79 9.38333333 5.55411655 4.42545229
4/1/79 9.37666667 5.63645742 4.33595612
7/1/79 9.67333333 5.80902938 4.49531976
10/1/79 11.84333333 6.95792469 5.79847529
1/1/80 13.35333333 7.76149608 6.74446729
4/1/80 9.61666667 6.71021129 3.56834028
7/1/80 9.15333333 5.99909008 3.72892803
10/1/80 13.61333333 8.17314333 6.63888897
1/1/81 14.39 8.92482157 6.78288267
4/1/81 14.90666667 9.18569866 7.13312932
7/1/81 15.05333333 9.72538077 6.76028629
10/1/81 11.75 8.44462824 4.2143093
1/1/82 12.81333333 8.76476256 5.10698472
4/1/82 12.42 8.59841299 4.81920138
7/1/82 9.31666667 7.51705577 2.40040851
10/1/82 7.90666667 6.17494413 2.1707876
1/1/83 8.10666667 5.97198309 2.59372304
4/1/83 8.39666667 6.34058079 2.54494399
7/1/83 9.14 6.7985586 2.91017177
10/1/83 8.8 6.80097904 2.5303134
1/1/84 9.17 6.92973355 2.812623
4/1/84 9.79666667 7.29331892 3.14799602
7/1/84 10.32 7.84435449 3.18444632
10/1/84 8.80333333 7.13039185 2.20721143
1/1/85 8.18333333 6.50761156 2.14283178
4/1/85 7.46 6.18928144 1.66779778
7/1/85 7.10666667 5.82123542 1.64930963
10/1/85 7.16666667 5.89560363 1.64034096
1/1/86 6.89666667 5.85666936 1.38564873
4/1/86 6.14 5.33324521 1.08934307
7/1/86 5.52333333 4.86465186 0.89505849
10/1/86 5.35333333 4.64014691 0.9372231
1/1/87 5.53666667 4.59680843 1.17688131
4/1/87 5.65666667 4.64456383 1.25784551
7/1/87 6.04333333 4.81926011 1.49952995
10/1/87 5.86333333 5.0022907 1.12241887
1/1/88 5.72333333 4.99871435 0.97531104
4/1/88 6.21 5.01924785 1.4791459
7/1/88 7.01 5.32703847 2.0384896
10/1/88 7.72666667 5.6684559 2.48012703
1/1/89 8.54 6.08843503 2.95525352
4/1/89 8.41 6.43679375 2.46324961
7/1/89 7.84333333 6.16951181 2.10658709
10/1/89 7.65333333 6.02726334 2.04047858
1/1/90 7.76 5.84097888 2.34373423
4/1/90 7.74666667 5.85782455 2.31220577
7/1/90 7.47666667 5.76393571 2.11050916
10/1/90 6.99 5.61702001 1.72668082
1/1/91 6.02333333 5.10114028 1.19574503
4/1/91 5.56 4.71877592 1.07993829
7/1/91 5.37666667 4.47521169 1.12714671
10/1/91 4.54 3.96081168 0.7502829
1/1/92 3.89333333 3.24147837 0.78471124
4/1/92 3.68 3.01486766 0.78653912
7/1/92 3.08333333 2.60723314 0.5682487
10/1/92 3.07 2.39657055 0.76500427
1/1/93 2.96 2.2989586 0.7475172
4/1/93 2.96666667 2.18267364 0.87079775
7/1/93 3.00333333 2.10716698 0.98459196
10/1/93 3.06 2.04167713 1.10932164
1/1/94 3.24333333 2.02491557 1.31821453
4/1/94 3.98666667 2.16843945 1.95641753
7/1/94 4.47666667 2.35389664 2.28930758
10/1/94 5.28 2.63102089 2.86816167
1/1/95 5.73666667 2.94077602 3.04755571
4/1/95 5.59666667 3.06956347 2.76849456
7/1/95 5.36666667 3.03229801 2.55925351
10/1/95 5.26 3.03001631 2.44744248
1/1/96 4.93 2.89694185 2.22823029
4/1/96 5.02 2.85438372 2.36673488
7/1/96 5.09666667 2.91901508 2.38390524
10/1/96 4.97666667 2.94244656 2.23245532
1/1/97 5.06 2.92279497 2.34099931
4/1/97 5.04666667 2.99805418 2.25154292
7/1/97 5.04666667 2.97797013 2.27161186
10/1/97 5.09 3.02109922 2.27473473
1/1/98 5.05333333 2.95700733 2.29965924
4/1/98 4.97666667 2.94794388 2.22694686
7/1/98 4.82333333 2.94091576 2.07073959
10/1/98 4.25333333 2.77917947 1.62752785
1/1/99 4.40666667 2.64007868 1.92883021
4/1/99 4.45333333 2.60641349 2.01204156
7/1/99 4.65 2.69604643 2.13114984
10/1/99 5.04333333 2.86783944 2.3782594
1/1/00 5.52 3.01136218 2.74455326
4/1/00 5.71333333 3.18877882 2.77449917
7/1/00 6.01666667 3.37334917 2.91626262
10/1/00 6.01666667 3.41574693 2.87401766
1/1/01 4.81666667 3.07980911 1.92511234
4/1/01 3.66 2.54727934 1.23320156
7/1/01 3.17 2.13174645 1.13510544
10/1/01 1.90666667 1.49044169 0.46165649
1/1/02 1.72333333 1.16689171 0.59570544
4/1/02 1.71666667 1.13165526 0.62404771
7/1/02 1.64333333 1.09120273 0.58887741
10/1/02 1.33333333 0.98633029 0.37483452
1/1/03 1.15666667 0.64974893 0.52986879
4/1/03 1.04 0.72134384 0.33870446
7/1/03 0.93 0.60419479 0.34317146
10/1/03 0.91666667 0.61686603 0.3168533
1/1/04 0.91666667 0.60950876 0.32421333
4/1/04 1.07666667 0.61275117 0.48493501
7/1/04 1.48666667 0.70470419 0.81408524
10/1/04 2.00666667 0.84494202 1.21054656
1/1/05 2.53666667 1.03907105 1.56624015
4/1/05 2.86333333 1.23464743 1.71091953
7/1/05 3.36 1.41412652 2.05111945
10/1/05 3.82666667 1.6028578 2.35302672
1/1/06 4.39333333 1.80793967 2.74689252
4/1/06 4.70333333 2.06084602 2.82304733
7/1/06 4.90666667 2.26692852 2.83337696
10/1/06 4.90333333 2.38449222 2.71224457
1/1/07 4.98333333 2.41540277 2.7666013
4/1/07 4.73666667 2.4778599 2.44150926
7/1/07 4.30333333 2.5132898 1.94692313
10/1/07 3.39 2.38220092 1.11521989
1/1/08 2.04333333 1.88196188 0.21325074
4/1/08 1.62666667 1.26849563 0.39471093
7/1/08 1.49333333 1.2477237 0.27818895
10/1/08 0.29666667 1.10725496 -0.80563595
1/1/09 0.21333333 0.60363859 -0.38708407
4/1/09 0.17333333 0.49263652 -0.31674124
7/1/09 0.15666667 0.42478044 -0.26580843
10/1/09 0.05666667 0.38860228 -0.33113166
1/1/10 0.10666667 0.34028721 -0.23207376
4/1/10 0.14666667 0.30815369 -0.15933785
7/1/10 0.15666667 0.30463991 -0.14567133
10/1/10 0.13666667 0.27891267 -0.14025195
1/1/11 0.12666667 0.25067803 -0.12216766
4/1/11 0.04666667 0.24082583 -0.19349939
7/1/11 0.02333333 0.22926043 -0.20559943
10/1/11 0.01333333 0.1979783 -0.18445875
1/1/12 0.06666667 0.135561 -0.06794209
4/1/12 0.08666667 0.1336868 -0.04577781
7/1/12 0.10333333 0.14236265 -0.03753926
10/1/12 0.08666667 0.13478772 -0.04687804
1/1/13 0.08666667 0.10415468 -0.016245
4/1/13 0.05 0.0929489 -0.0422413
7/1/13 0.03739583 0.0883897 -0.05088451
10/1/13 0.11   0.01789803

Figure 3 Data: M2 Velocity and Opportunity Cost(Taylog25) 1960:Q1 to 2006:Q4

quarter logv2 taylog25
1/1/60 0.598430078577075 0.974490359559277
4/1/60 0.589076613660054 0.504633987524299
7/1/60 0.577476489400487 0.00183384172452031
10/1/60 0.55398828583221 -0.0774369169728643
1/1/61 0.545852350118795 -0.056930750997552
4/1/61 0.548358979258882 -0.160458053599455
7/1/61 0.550827079518814 -0.249763779704906
10/1/61 0.55669620064094 -0.156973266998067
1/1/62 0.559204929479758 -0.195086842264998
4/1/62 0.550718635910455 -0.372073609306522
7/1/62 0.546735960123334 -0.246898706985686
10/1/62 0.532752401119482 -0.299158954059279
1/1/63 0.526175373915734 -0.179092295074375
4/1/63 0.519255476176902 -0.192011848374992
7/1/63 0.519666165882925 0.113304279088101
10/1/63 0.515618581965785 0.281830261442463
1/1/64 0.523718063442081 0.307182778344401
4/1/64 0.520957370174511 0.235521309155027
7/1/64 0.516160220178997 0.2393247569095
10/1/64 0.503919795211784 0.366412263909086
1/1/65 0.513523899972299 0.472155339475071
4/1/65 0.515063186238923 0.429154395152774
7/1/65 0.519919590847129 0.409820036405005
10/1/65 0.52833516126849 0.566717767627778
1/1/66 0.540075148639222 0.783409612325275
4/1/66 0.54043025342371 0.74990491634975
7/1/66 0.551290695823645 0.943628788079211
10/1/66 0.55823288645522 1.02068747121278
1/1/67 0.55546516389311 0.705700871342239
4/1/67 0.537699797213735 0.0741322957423773
7/1/67 0.529024133096072 0.556528511346228
10/1/67 0.527094763349322 0.799520299936125
1/1/68 0.541199791836193 0.935878721416749
4/1/68 0.5520545292781 1.10285734374809
7/1/68 0.549883081092351 0.975042769234154
10/1/68 0.545411321306802 1.11799425890171
1/1/69 0.554289949340414 1.28931313477647
4/1/69 0.561389642058242 1.30959658762831
7/1/69 0.575326822032878 1.52090170454807
10/1/69 0.575096814158171 1.59977973768712
1/1/70 0.583631017889032 1.5247345767931
4/1/70 0.592555848032696 1.36978976867722
7/1/70 0.587224928434693 1.26082597258793
10/1/70 0.563358981600488 0.882084166831329
1/1/71 0.573379586652018 -0.31462401658892
4/1/71 0.554250348480268 0.220610342836896
7/1/71 0.542868215390402 0.71616941913856
10/1/71 0.527350884057558 0.169755477317109
1/1/72 0.530806225579969 -1.0637208824992
4/1/72 0.535074545412487 -0.326422098924436
7/1/72 0.520469441430505 0.122185374253818
10/1/72 0.516900993980572 0.581821433087005
1/1/73 0.529287926533139 0.97269037340303
4/1/73 0.539419136667759 1.21757108333483
7/1/73 0.538922828484776 1.50930117659073
10/1/73 0.555104217041137 1.26698595639722
1/1/74 0.547297078127523 1.28627026927438
4/1/74 0.561412939643303 1.45227747898266
7/1/74 0.569645151792721 1.48888032364161
10/1/74 0.57946495082083 1.28314693432915
1/1/75 0.570805822379461 0.785603721190819
4/1/75 0.557348041432675 0.646293325523596
7/1/75 0.555640135256156 1.0430168472849
10/1/75 0.561680738990753 0.737799959813256
1/1/76 0.563065993034591 0.297029244179602
4/1/76 0.551113054007618 0.417110409345876
7/1/76 0.542817142575093 0.399140254533122
10/1/76 0.532224454465459 -0.169555040265632
1/1/77 0.526347462289539 -0.109928391463832
4/1/77 0.533152429608678 0.0351564572083988
7/1/77 0.5401145331285 0.481481996819683
10/1/77 0.541279321277903 0.804033275999306
1/1/78 0.541026395622952 0.950023313840795
4/1/78 0.578809900798438 0.963320787205769
7/1/78 0.586640530106454 1.12961507405356
10/1/78 0.602269241617474 1.35448786655862
1/1/79 0.607438552006582 1.51532912429865
4/1/79 0.609082976654752 1.49433239120201
7/1/79 0.614012416218941 1.53060501149968
10/1/79 0.621566340658245 1.79239664073808
1/1/80 0.628025024452155 1.93885754271451
4/1/80 0.614467024294946 1.21555010053457
7/1/80 0.605935476998878 1.33448242651867
10/1/80 0.630550564243991 1.9212649504662
1/1/81 0.658731579018734 1.95637127571974
4/1/81 0.643292088996936 2.0045283130291
7/1/81 0.654966094404529 1.9601019041877
10/1/81 0.636304184015635 1.4600846529272
1/1/82 0.610950796590302 1.67579107058718
4/1/82 0.607211612667036 1.61815915783996
7/1/82 0.601356523661584 0.865918210837211
10/1/82 0.591143130772444 0.8056609310677
1/1/83 0.558570332552321 0.985625072118027
4/1/83 0.562487923251576 0.96925020356598
7/1/83 0.57661276304478 1.10738699829311
10/1/83 0.586347965608116 0.968715082122584
1/1/84 0.595281264402892 1.07387756785247
4/1/84 0.599768927789908 1.18958848289767
7/1/84 0.604496103834408 1.20516416208126
10/1/84 0.597220747870022 0.826278001188281
1/1/85 0.588915127402494 0.797260439121662
4/1/85 0.586654606298314 0.549362806513879
7/1/85 0.586851125989485 0.541978154535485
10/1/85 0.58542436123593 0.537005543559041
1/1/86 0.584798838710965 0.359960458233064
4/1/86 0.567240696347463 0.119754473819863
7/1/86 0.55653169029542 -0.0741320103293689
10/1/86 0.54525775092241 -0.0361136257999744
1/1/87 0.543827514984821 0.196137225862088
4/1/87 0.55307610295567 0.263016735173638
7/1/87 0.563107117274033 0.424755347365613
10/1/87 0.576396372607992 0.141936206748772
1/1/88 0.572435066218695 0.018982486799438
4/1/88 0.576023095395525 0.418517225971987
7/1/88 0.584290321447602 0.74352038171176
10/1/88 0.596706819516895 0.937099380726628
1/1/89 0.61214437920948 1.11775324357325
4/1/89 0.623416453285155 0.938367310928139
7/1/89 0.619053473700724 0.784532216980728
10/1/89 0.608781430874058 0.752469811673402
1/1/90 0.616394065855394 0.886270293925199
4/1/90 0.622268110466994 0.87398836399133
7/1/90 0.620616034186185 0.782583563353926
10/1/90 0.612199795776102 0.582240078335001
1/1/91 0.605382632017153 0.219531261693141
4/1/91 0.608687014268613 0.113477592453015
7/1/91 0.617042686857333 0.151908844682846
10/1/91 0.62370046687997 -0.278011022126107
1/1/92 0.631264565620361 -0.240272538772594
4/1/92 0.647973446527662 -0.21807308550026
7/1/92 0.661346723836929 -0.546117167244177
10/1/92 0.67108067231207 -0.27992298017427
1/1/93 0.681552362215748 -0.276334106009441
4/1/93 0.68919122005575 -0.132737458701963
7/1/93 0.695363700408447 -0.00360424595093055
10/1/93 0.707895199210516 0.114211437428964
1/1/94 0.719657147561574 0.274060057027008
4/1/94 0.735652288790233 0.677601020846234
7/1/94 0.746329266955235 0.839573307908059
10/1/94 0.763380493419114 1.06500633227839
1/1/95 0.771290816882019 1.12883078453175
4/1/95 0.769917220813769 1.03325406306592
7/1/95 0.765763742263857 0.954710984306465
10/1/95 0.768110136884301 0.909707519667157
1/1/96 0.76783780684829 0.815480272634748
4/1/96 0.77709194262361 0.875555813645098
7/1/96 0.779728172213939 0.883274146935296
10/1/96 0.783754970283393 0.817857681155662
1/1/97 0.785040623978512 0.865104939273314
4/1/97 0.791575081660263 0.825550404754836
7/1/97 0.792070600635609 0.834924137413832
10/1/97 0.787781514302601 0.83627659898851
1/1/98 0.780978422450642 0.847714670296078
4/1/98 0.774350794196966 0.815597575855946
7/1/98 0.774458866644719 0.74031813835945
10/1/98 0.768350633470435 0.485305838429563
1/1/99 0.764255392596025 0.669775947524908
4/1/99 0.761549118881166 0.710336573408623
7/1/99 0.763015183074606 0.769976878732235
10/1/99 0.771481961265541 0.879746723241856
1/1/00 0.766165598454976 1.02372979511009
4/1/00 0.773927573041163 1.03599254781078
7/1/00 0.76996040666267 1.08710019441503
10/1/00 0.765956108048368 1.07068403986032
1/1/01 0.743389509054396 0.666770522506306
4/1/01 0.730983652924026 0.224070982758826
7/1/01 0.709187822941242 0.103655989967929
10/1/01 0.692191270708888 -0.770646206165282
1/1/02 0.687419154384827 -0.521738297877764
4/1/02 0.688901375725893 -0.465545263286057
7/1/02 0.679645577464684 -0.52380067422231
10/1/02 0.664958810196987 -1.01123869502297
1/1/03 0.660215031185279 -0.649717159266546
4/1/03 0.652810638385217 -1.09853768454536
7/1/03 0.654833621762141 -1.06968434670047
10/1/03 0.672033032527059 -1.14632506546712
1/1/04 0.678613821715401 -1.13106533927809
4/1/04 0.673450033060547 -0.755254486887957
7/1/04 0.677476846777496 -0.209302611021654
10/1/04 0.679553335684542 0.190008939396723
1/1/05 0.693621252165498 0.451276681743376
4/1/05 0.699142898696065 0.543366480075566
7/1/05 0.703101447853184 0.725352479622004
10/1/05 0.702361637428157 0.863793241646889
1/1/06 0.709075034017804 1.01959297120437
4/1/06 0.709815154582736 1.04843390872773
7/1/06 0.704061874331213 1.051874955013
10/1/06 0.697672616785025 1.00963623888955

Figure 4 Data: M2 Velocity and Opportunity Cost(Taylog25) 1960:Q1 to 2006:Q4

quarter logv2 taylog25
1/1/60 0.598430078577075 0.974490359559277
4/1/60 0.589076613660054 0.504633987524299
7/1/60 0.577476489400487 0.00183384172452031
10/1/60 0.55398828583221 -0.0774369169728643
1/1/61 0.545852350118795 -0.056930750997552
4/1/61 0.548358979258882 -0.160458053599455
7/1/61 0.550827079518814 -0.249763779704906
10/1/61 0.55669620064094 -0.156973266998067
1/1/62 0.559204929479758 -0.195086842264998
4/1/62 0.550718635910455 -0.372073609306522
7/1/62 0.546735960123334 -0.246898706985686
10/1/62 0.532752401119482 -0.299158954059279
1/1/63 0.526175373915734 -0.179092295074375
4/1/63 0.519255476176902 -0.192011848374992
7/1/63 0.519666165882925 0.113304279088101
10/1/63 0.515618581965785 0.281830261442463
1/1/64 0.523718063442081 0.307182778344401
4/1/64 0.520957370174511 0.235521309155027
7/1/64 0.516160220178997 0.2393247569095
10/1/64 0.503919795211784 0.366412263909086
1/1/65 0.513523899972299 0.472155339475071
4/1/65 0.515063186238923 0.429154395152774
7/1/65 0.519919590847129 0.409820036405005
10/1/65 0.52833516126849 0.566717767627778
1/1/66 0.540075148639222 0.783409612325275
4/1/66 0.54043025342371 0.74990491634975
7/1/66 0.551290695823645 0.943628788079211
10/1/66 0.55823288645522 1.02068747121278
1/1/67 0.55546516389311 0.705700871342239
4/1/67 0.537699797213735 0.0741322957423773
7/1/67 0.529024133096072 0.556528511346228
10/1/67 0.527094763349322 0.799520299936125
1/1/68 0.541199791836193 0.935878721416749
4/1/68 0.5520545292781 1.10285734374809
7/1/68 0.549883081092351 0.975042769234154
10/1/68 0.545411321306802 1.11799425890171
1/1/69 0.554289949340414 1.28931313477647
4/1/69 0.561389642058242 1.30959658762831
7/1/69 0.575326822032878 1.52090170454807
10/1/69 0.575096814158171 1.59977973768712
1/1/70 0.583631017889032 1.5247345767931
4/1/70 0.592555848032696 1.36978976867722
7/1/70 0.587224928434693 1.26082597258793
10/1/70 0.563358981600488 0.882084166831329
1/1/71 0.573379586652018 -0.31462401658892
4/1/71 0.554250348480268 0.220610342836896
7/1/71 0.542868215390402 0.71616941913856
10/1/71 0.527350884057558 0.169755477317109
1/1/72 0.530806225579969 -1.0637208824992
4/1/72 0.535074545412487 -0.326422098924436
7/1/72 0.520469441430505 0.122185374253818
10/1/72 0.516900993980572 0.581821433087005
1/1/73 0.529287926533139 0.97269037340303
4/1/73 0.539419136667759 1.21757108333483
7/1/73 0.538922828484776 1.50930117659073
10/1/73 0.555104217041137 1.26698595639722
1/1/74 0.547297078127523 1.28627026927438
4/1/74 0.561412939643303 1.45227747898266
7/1/74 0.569645151792721 1.48888032364161
10/1/74 0.57946495082083 1.28314693432915
1/1/75 0.570805822379461 0.785603721190819
4/1/75 0.557348041432675 0.646293325523596
7/1/75 0.555640135256156 1.0430168472849
10/1/75 0.561680738990753 0.737799959813256
1/1/76 0.563065993034591 0.297029244179602
4/1/76 0.551113054007618 0.417110409345876
7/1/76 0.542817142575093 0.399140254533122
10/1/76 0.532224454465459 -0.169555040265632
1/1/77 0.526347462289539 -0.109928391463832
4/1/77 0.533152429608678 0.0351564572083988
7/1/77 0.5401145331285 0.481481996819683
10/1/77 0.541279321277903 0.804033275999306
1/1/78 0.541026395622952 0.950023313840795
4/1/78 0.578809900798438 0.963320787205769
7/1/78 0.586640530106454 1.12961507405356
10/1/78 0.602269241617474 1.35448786655862
1/1/79 0.607438552006582 1.51532912429865
4/1/79 0.609082976654752 1.49433239120201
7/1/79 0.614012416218941 1.53060501149968
10/1/79 0.621566340658245 1.79239664073808
1/1/80 0.628025024452155 1.93885754271451
4/1/80 0.614467024294946 1.21555010053457
7/1/80 0.605935476998878 1.33448242651867
10/1/80 0.630550564243991 1.9212649504662
1/1/81 0.658731579018734 1.95637127571974
4/1/81 0.643292088996936 2.0045283130291
7/1/81 0.654966094404529 1.9601019041877
10/1/81 0.636304184015635 1.4600846529272
1/1/82 0.610950796590302 1.67579107058718
4/1/82 0.607211612667036 1.61815915783996
7/1/82 0.601356523661584 0.865918210837211
10/1/82 0.591143130772444 0.8056609310677
1/1/83 0.558570332552321 0.985625072118027
4/1/83 0.562487923251576 0.96925020356598
7/1/83 0.57661276304478 1.10738699829311
10/1/83 0.586347965608116 0.968715082122584
1/1/84 0.595281264402892 1.07387756785247
4/1/84 0.599768927789908 1.18958848289767
7/1/84 0.604496103834408 1.20516416208126
10/1/84 0.597220747870022 0.826278001188281
1/1/85 0.588915127402494 0.797260439121662
4/1/85 0.586654606298314 0.549362806513879
7/1/85 0.586851125989485 0.541978154535485
10/1/85 0.58542436123593 0.537005543559041
1/1/86 0.584798838710965 0.359960458233064
4/1/86 0.567240696347463 0.119754473819863
7/1/86 0.55653169029542 -0.0741320103293689
10/1/86 0.54525775092241 -0.0361136257999744
1/1/87 0.543827514984821 0.196137225862088
4/1/87 0.55307610295567 0.263016735173638
7/1/87 0.563107117274033 0.424755347365613
10/1/87 0.576396372607992 0.141936206748772
1/1/88 0.572435066218695 0.018982486799438
4/1/88 0.576023095395525 0.418517225971987
7/1/88 0.584290321447602 0.74352038171176
10/1/88 0.596706819516895 0.937099380726628
1/1/89 0.61214437920948 1.11775324357325
4/1/89 0.623416453285155 0.938367310928139
7/1/89 0.619053473700724 0.784532216980728
10/1/89 0.608781430874058 0.752469811673402
1/1/90 0.616394065855394 0.886270293925199
4/1/90 0.622268110466994 0.87398836399133
7/1/90 0.620616034186185 0.782583563353926
10/1/90 0.612199795776102 0.582240078335001
1/1/91 0.605382632017153 0.219531261693141
4/1/91 0.608687014268613 0.113477592453015
7/1/91 0.617042686857333 0.151908844682846
10/1/91 0.62370046687997 -0.278011022126107
1/1/92 0.631264565620361 -0.240272538772594
4/1/92 0.647973446527662 -0.21807308550026
7/1/92 0.661346723836929 -0.546117167244177
10/1/92 0.67108067231207 -0.27992298017427
1/1/93 0.681552362215748 -0.276334106009441
4/1/93 0.68919122005575 -0.132737458701963
7/1/93 0.695363700408447 -0.00360424595093055
10/1/93 0.707895199210516 0.114211437428964
1/1/94 0.719657147561574 0.274060057027008
4/1/94 0.735652288790233 0.677601020846234
7/1/94 0.746329266955235 0.839573307908059
10/1/94 0.763380493419114 1.06500633227839
1/1/95 0.771290816882019 1.12883078453175
4/1/95 0.769917220813769 1.03325406306592
7/1/95 0.765763742263857 0.954710984306465
10/1/95 0.768110136884301 0.909707519667157
1/1/96 0.76783780684829 0.815480272634748
4/1/96 0.77709194262361 0.875555813645098
7/1/96 0.779728172213939 0.883274146935296
10/1/96 0.783754970283393 0.817857681155662
1/1/97 0.785040623978512 0.865104939273314
4/1/97 0.791575081660263 0.825550404754836
7/1/97 0.792070600635609 0.834924137413832
10/1/97 0.787781514302601 0.83627659898851
1/1/98 0.780978422450642 0.847714670296078
4/1/98 0.774350794196966 0.815597575855946
7/1/98 0.774458866644719 0.74031813835945
10/1/98 0.768350633470435 0.485305838429563
1/1/99 0.764255392596025 0.669775947524908
4/1/99 0.761549118881166 0.710336573408623
7/1/99 0.763015183074606 0.769976878732235
10/1/99 0.771481961265541 0.879746723241856
1/1/00 0.766165598454976 1.02372979511009
4/1/00 0.773927573041163 1.03599254781078
7/1/00 0.76996040666267 1.08710019441503
10/1/00 0.765956108048368 1.07068403986032
1/1/01 0.743389509054396 0.666770522506306
4/1/01 0.730983652924026 0.224070982758826
7/1/01 0.709187822941242 0.103655989967929
10/1/01 0.692191270708888 -0.770646206165282
1/1/02 0.687419154384827 -0.521738297877764
4/1/02 0.688901375725893 -0.465545263286057
7/1/02 0.679645577464684 -0.52380067422231
10/1/02 0.664958810196987 -1.01123869502297
1/1/03 0.660215031185279 -0.649717159266546
4/1/03 0.652810638385217 -1.09853768454536
7/1/03 0.654833621762141 -1.06968434670047
10/1/03 0.672033032527059 -1.14632506546712
1/1/04 0.678613821715401 -1.13106533927809
4/1/04 0.673450033060547 -0.755254486887957
7/1/04 0.677476846777496 -0.209302611021654
10/1/04 0.679553335684542 0.190008939396723
1/1/05 0.693621252165498 0.451276681743376
4/1/05 0.699142898696065 0.543366480075566
7/1/05 0.703101447853184 0.725352479622004
10/1/05 0.702361637428157 0.863793241646889
1/1/06 0.709075034017804 1.01959297120437
4/1/06 0.709815154582736 1.04843390872773
7/1/06 0.704061874331213 1.051874955013
10/1/06 0.697672616785025 1.00963623888955

Figure 5 Data: M2 Velocity and Opportunity Cost(Taylog25) 1960:Q1 to 2006:Q4

quarter logv2 taylog25
1/1/60 0.598430078577075 0.974490359559277
4/1/60 0.589076613660054 0.504633987524299
7/1/60 0.577476489400487 0.00183384172452031
10/1/60 0.55398828583221 -0.0774369169728643
1/1/61 0.545852350118795 -0.056930750997552
4/1/61 0.548358979258882 -0.160458053599455
7/1/61 0.550827079518814 -0.249763779704906
10/1/61 0.55669620064094 -0.156973266998067
1/1/62 0.559204929479758 -0.195086842264998
4/1/62 0.550718635910455 -0.372073609306522
7/1/62 0.546735960123334 -0.246898706985686
10/1/62 0.532752401119482 -0.299158954059279
1/1/63 0.526175373915734 -0.179092295074375
4/1/63 0.519255476176902 -0.192011848374992
7/1/63 0.519666165882925 0.113304279088101
10/1/63 0.515618581965785 0.281830261442463
1/1/64 0.523718063442081 0.307182778344401
4/1/64 0.520957370174511 0.235521309155027
7/1/64 0.516160220178997 0.2393247569095
10/1/64 0.503919795211784 0.366412263909086
1/1/65 0.513523899972299 0.472155339475071
4/1/65 0.515063186238923 0.429154395152774
7/1/65 0.519919590847129 0.409820036405005
10/1/65 0.52833516126849 0.566717767627778
1/1/66 0.540075148639222 0.783409612325275
4/1/66 0.54043025342371 0.74990491634975
7/1/66 0.551290695823645 0.943628788079211
10/1/66 0.55823288645522 1.02068747121278
1/1/67 0.55546516389311 0.705700871342239
4/1/67 0.537699797213735 0.0741322957423773
7/1/67 0.529024133096072 0.556528511346228
10/1/67 0.527094763349322 0.799520299936125
1/1/68 0.541199791836193 0.935878721416749
4/1/68 0.5520545292781 1.10285734374809
7/1/68 0.549883081092351 0.975042769234154
10/1/68 0.545411321306802 1.11799425890171
1/1/69 0.554289949340414 1.28931313477647
4/1/69 0.561389642058242 1.30959658762831
7/1/69 0.575326822032878 1.52090170454807
10/1/69 0.575096814158171 1.59977973768712
1/1/70 0.583631017889032 1.5247345767931
4/1/70 0.592555848032696 1.36978976867722
7/1/70 0.587224928434693 1.26082597258793
10/1/70 0.563358981600488 0.882084166831329
1/1/71 0.573379586652018 -0.31462401658892
4/1/71 0.554250348480268 0.220610342836896
7/1/71 0.542868215390402 0.71616941913856
10/1/71 0.527350884057558 0.169755477317109
1/1/72 0.530806225579969 -1.0637208824992
4/1/72 0.535074545412487 -0.326422098924436
7/1/72 0.520469441430505 0.122185374253818
10/1/72 0.516900993980572 0.581821433087005
1/1/73 0.529287926533139 0.97269037340303
4/1/73 0.539419136667759 1.21757108333483
7/1/73 0.538922828484776 1.50930117659073
10/1/73 0.555104217041137 1.26698595639722
1/1/74 0.547297078127523 1.28627026927438
4/1/74 0.561412939643303 1.45227747898266
7/1/74 0.569645151792721 1.48888032364161
10/1/74 0.57946495082083 1.28314693432915
1/1/75 0.570805822379461 0.785603721190819
4/1/75 0.557348041432675 0.646293325523596
7/1/75 0.555640135256156 1.0430168472849
10/1/75 0.561680738990753 0.737799959813256
1/1/76 0.563065993034591 0.297029244179602
4/1/76 0.551113054007618 0.417110409345876
7/1/76 0.542817142575093 0.399140254533122
10/1/76 0.532224454465459 -0.169555040265632
1/1/77 0.526347462289539 -0.109928391463832
4/1/77 0.533152429608678 0.0351564572083988
7/1/77 0.5401145331285 0.481481996819683
10/1/77 0.541279321277903 0.804033275999306
1/1/78 0.541026395622952 0.950023313840795
4/1/78 0.578809900798438 0.963320787205769
7/1/78 0.586640530106454 1.12961507405356
10/1/78 0.602269241617474 1.35448786655862
1/1/79 0.607438552006582 1.51532912429865
4/1/79 0.609082976654752 1.49433239120201
7/1/79 0.614012416218941 1.53060501149968
10/1/79 0.621566340658245 1.79239664073808
1/1/80 0.628025024452155 1.93885754271451
4/1/80 0.614467024294946 1.21555010053457
7/1/80 0.605935476998878 1.33448242651867
10/1/80 0.630550564243991 1.9212649504662
1/1/81 0.658731579018734 1.95637127571974
4/1/81 0.643292088996936 2.0045283130291
7/1/81 0.654966094404529 1.9601019041877
10/1/81 0.636304184015635 1.4600846529272
1/1/82 0.610950796590302 1.67579107058718
4/1/82 0.607211612667036 1.61815915783996
7/1/82 0.601356523661584 0.865918210837211
10/1/82 0.591143130772444 0.8056609310677
1/1/83 0.558570332552321 0.985625072118027
4/1/83 0.562487923251576 0.96925020356598
7/1/83 0.57661276304478 1.10738699829311
10/1/83 0.586347965608116 0.968715082122584
1/1/84 0.595281264402892 1.07387756785247
4/1/84 0.599768927789908 1.18958848289767
7/1/84 0.604496103834408 1.20516416208126
10/1/84 0.597220747870022 0.826278001188281
1/1/85 0.588915127402494 0.797260439121662
4/1/85 0.586654606298314 0.549362806513879
7/1/85 0.586851125989485 0.541978154535485
10/1/85 0.58542436123593 0.537005543559041
1/1/86 0.584798838710965 0.359960458233064
4/1/86 0.567240696347463 0.119754473819863
7/1/86 0.55653169029542 -0.0741320103293689
10/1/86 0.54525775092241 -0.0361136257999744
1/1/87 0.543827514984821 0.196137225862088
4/1/87 0.55307610295567 0.263016735173638
7/1/87 0.563107117274033 0.424755347365613
10/1/87 0.576396372607992 0.141936206748772
1/1/88 0.572435066218695 0.018982486799438
4/1/88 0.576023095395525 0.418517225971987
7/1/88 0.584290321447602 0.74352038171176
10/1/88 0.596706819516895 0.937099380726628
1/1/89 0.61214437920948 1.11775324357325
4/1/89 0.623416453285155 0.938367310928139
7/1/89 0.619053473700724 0.784532216980728
10/1/89 0.608781430874058 0.752469811673402
1/1/90 0.616394065855394 0.886270293925199
4/1/90 0.622268110466994 0.87398836399133
7/1/90 0.620616034186185 0.782583563353926
10/1/90 0.612199795776102 0.582240078335001
1/1/91 0.605382632017153 0.219531261693141
4/1/91 0.608687014268613 0.113477592453015
7/1/91 0.617042686857333 0.151908844682846
10/1/91 0.62370046687997 -0.278011022126107
1/1/92 0.631264565620361 -0.240272538772594
4/1/92 0.647973446527662 -0.21807308550026
7/1/92 0.661346723836929 -0.546117167244177
10/1/92 0.67108067231207 -0.27992298017427
1/1/93 0.681552362215748 -0.276334106009441
4/1/93 0.68919122005575 -0.132737458701963
7/1/93 0.695363700408447 -0.00360424595093055
10/1/93 0.707895199210516 0.114211437428964
1/1/94 0.719657147561574 0.274060057027008
4/1/94 0.735652288790233 0.677601020846234
7/1/94 0.746329266955235 0.839573307908059
10/1/94 0.763380493419114 1.06500633227839
1/1/95 0.771290816882019 1.12883078453175
4/1/95 0.769917220813769 1.03325406306592
7/1/95 0.765763742263857 0.954710984306465
10/1/95 0.768110136884301 0.909707519667157
1/1/96 0.76783780684829 0.815480272634748
4/1/96 0.77709194262361 0.875555813645098
7/1/96 0.779728172213939 0.883274146935296
10/1/96 0.783754970283393 0.817857681155662
1/1/97 0.785040623978512 0.865104939273314
4/1/97 0.791575081660263 0.825550404754836
7/1/97 0.792070600635609 0.834924137413832
10/1/97 0.787781514302601 0.83627659898851
1/1/98 0.780978422450642 0.847714670296078
4/1/98 0.774350794196966 0.815597575855946
7/1/98 0.774458866644719 0.74031813835945
10/1/98 0.768350633470435 0.485305838429563
1/1/99 0.764255392596025 0.669775947524908
4/1/99 0.761549118881166 0.710336573408623
7/1/99 0.763015183074606 0.769976878732235
10/1/99 0.771481961265541 0.879746723241856
1/1/00 0.766165598454976 1.02372979511009
4/1/00 0.773927573041163 1.03599254781078
7/1/00 0.76996040666267 1.08710019441503
10/1/00 0.765956108048368 1.07068403986032
1/1/01 0.743389509054396 0.666770522506306
4/1/01 0.730983652924026 0.224070982758826
7/1/01 0.709187822941242 0.103655989967929
10/1/01 0.692191270708888 -0.770646206165282
1/1/02 0.687419154384827 -0.521738297877764
4/1/02 0.688901375725893 -0.465545263286057
7/1/02 0.679645577464684 -0.52380067422231
10/1/02 0.664958810196987 -1.01123869502297
1/1/03 0.660215031185279 -0.649717159266546
4/1/03 0.652810638385217 -1.09853768454536
7/1/03 0.654833621762141 -1.06968434670047
10/1/03 0.672033032527059 -1.14632506546712
1/1/04 0.678613821715401 -1.13106533927809
4/1/04 0.673450033060547 -0.755254486887957
7/1/04 0.677476846777496 -0.209302611021654
10/1/04 0.679553335684542 0.190008939396723
1/1/05 0.693621252165498 0.451276681743376
4/1/05 0.699142898696065 0.543366480075566
7/1/05 0.703101447853184 0.725352479622004
10/1/05 0.702361637428157 0.863793241646889
1/1/06 0.709075034017804 1.01959297120437
4/1/06 0.709815154582736 1.04843390872773
7/1/06 0.704061874331213 1.051874955013
10/1/06 0.697672616785025 1.00963623888955

Figure 6 Data: M2 Velocity and Opportunity Cost(Taylog25) 1960:Q1 to 2006:Q4

quarter logv2 taylog25
1/1/60 0.598430078577075 0.974490359559277
4/1/60 0.589076613660054 0.504633987524299
7/1/60 0.577476489400487 0.00183384172452031
10/1/60 0.55398828583221 -0.0774369169728643
1/1/61 0.545852350118795 -0.056930750997552
4/1/61 0.548358979258882 -0.160458053599455
7/1/61 0.550827079518814 -0.249763779704906
10/1/61 0.55669620064094 -0.156973266998067
1/1/62 0.559204929479758 -0.195086842264998
4/1/62 0.550718635910455 -0.372073609306522
7/1/62 0.546735960123334 -0.246898706985686
10/1/62 0.532752401119482 -0.299158954059279
1/1/63 0.526175373915734 -0.179092295074375
4/1/63 0.519255476176902 -0.192011848374992
7/1/63 0.519666165882925 0.113304279088101
10/1/63 0.515618581965785 0.281830261442463
1/1/64 0.523718063442081 0.307182778344401
4/1/64 0.520957370174511 0.235521309155027
7/1/64 0.516160220178997 0.2393247569095
10/1/64 0.503919795211784 0.366412263909086
1/1/65 0.513523899972299 0.472155339475071
4/1/65 0.515063186238923 0.429154395152774
7/1/65 0.519919590847129 0.409820036405005
10/1/65 0.52833516126849 0.566717767627778
1/1/66 0.540075148639222 0.783409612325275
4/1/66 0.54043025342371 0.74990491634975
7/1/66 0.551290695823645 0.943628788079211
10/1/66 0.55823288645522 1.02068747121278
1/1/67 0.55546516389311 0.705700871342239
4/1/67 0.537699797213735 0.0741322957423773
7/1/67 0.529024133096072 0.556528511346228
10/1/67 0.527094763349322 0.799520299936125
1/1/68 0.541199791836193 0.935878721416749
4/1/68 0.5520545292781 1.10285734374809
7/1/68 0.549883081092351 0.975042769234154
10/1/68 0.545411321306802 1.11799425890171
1/1/69 0.554289949340414 1.28931313477647
4/1/69 0.561389642058242 1.30959658762831
7/1/69 0.575326822032878 1.52090170454807
10/1/69 0.575096814158171 1.59977973768712
1/1/70 0.583631017889032 1.5247345767931
4/1/70 0.592555848032696 1.36978976867722
7/1/70 0.587224928434693 1.26082597258793
10/1/70 0.563358981600488 0.882084166831329
1/1/71 0.573379586652018 -0.31462401658892
4/1/71 0.554250348480268 0.220610342836896
7/1/71 0.542868215390402 0.71616941913856
10/1/71 0.527350884057558 0.169755477317109
1/1/72 0.530806225579969 -1.0637208824992
4/1/72 0.535074545412487 -0.326422098924436
7/1/72 0.520469441430505 0.122185374253818
10/1/72 0.516900993980572 0.581821433087005
1/1/73 0.529287926533139 0.97269037340303
4/1/73 0.539419136667759 1.21757108333483
7/1/73 0.538922828484776 1.50930117659073
10/1/73 0.555104217041137 1.26698595639722
1/1/74 0.547297078127523 1.28627026927438
4/1/74 0.561412939643303 1.45227747898266
7/1/74 0.569645151792721 1.48888032364161
10/1/74 0.57946495082083 1.28314693432915
1/1/75 0.570805822379461 0.785603721190819
4/1/75 0.557348041432675 0.646293325523596
7/1/75 0.555640135256156 1.0430168472849
10/1/75 0.561680738990753 0.737799959813256
1/1/76 0.563065993034591 0.297029244179602
4/1/76 0.551113054007618 0.417110409345876
7/1/76 0.542817142575093 0.399140254533122
10/1/76 0.532224454465459 -0.169555040265632
1/1/77 0.526347462289539 -0.109928391463832
4/1/77 0.533152429608678 0.0351564572083988
7/1/77 0.5401145331285 0.481481996819683
10/1/77 0.541279321277903 0.804033275999306
1/1/78 0.541026395622952 0.950023313840795
4/1/78 0.578809900798438 0.963320787205769
7/1/78 0.586640530106454 1.12961507405356
10/1/78 0.602269241617474 1.35448786655862
1/1/79 0.607438552006582 1.51532912429865
4/1/79 0.609082976654752 1.49433239120201
7/1/79 0.614012416218941 1.53060501149968
10/1/79 0.621566340658245 1.79239664073808
1/1/80 0.628025024452155 1.93885754271451
4/1/80 0.614467024294946 1.21555010053457
7/1/80 0.605935476998878 1.33448242651867
10/1/80 0.630550564243991 1.9212649504662
1/1/81 0.658731579018734 1.95637127571974
4/1/81 0.643292088996936 2.0045283130291
7/1/81 0.654966094404529 1.9601019041877
10/1/81 0.636304184015635 1.4600846529272
1/1/82 0.610950796590302 1.67579107058718
4/1/82 0.607211612667036 1.61815915783996
7/1/82 0.601356523661584 0.865918210837211
10/1/82 0.591143130772444 0.8056609310677
1/1/83 0.558570332552321 0.985625072118027
4/1/83 0.562487923251576 0.96925020356598
7/1/83 0.57661276304478 1.10738699829311
10/1/83 0.586347965608116 0.968715082122584
1/1/84 0.595281264402892 1.07387756785247
4/1/84 0.599768927789908 1.18958848289767
7/1/84 0.604496103834408 1.20516416208126
10/1/84 0.597220747870022 0.826278001188281
1/1/85 0.588915127402494 0.797260439121662
4/1/85 0.586654606298314 0.549362806513879
7/1/85 0.586851125989485 0.541978154535485
10/1/85 0.58542436123593 0.537005543559041
1/1/86 0.584798838710965 0.359960458233064
4/1/86 0.567240696347463 0.119754473819863
7/1/86 0.55653169029542 -0.0741320103293689
10/1/86 0.54525775092241 -0.0361136257999744
1/1/87 0.543827514984821 0.196137225862088
4/1/87 0.55307610295567 0.263016735173638
7/1/87 0.563107117274033 0.424755347365613
10/1/87 0.576396372607992 0.141936206748772
1/1/88 0.572435066218695 0.018982486799438
4/1/88 0.576023095395525 0.418517225971987
7/1/88 0.584290321447602 0.74352038171176
10/1/88 0.596706819516895 0.937099380726628
1/1/89 0.61214437920948 1.11775324357325
4/1/89 0.623416453285155 0.938367310928139
7/1/89 0.619053473700724 0.784532216980728
10/1/89 0.608781430874058 0.752469811673402
1/1/90 0.616394065855394 0.886270293925199
4/1/90 0.622268110466994 0.87398836399133
7/1/90 0.620616034186185 0.782583563353926
10/1/90 0.612199795776102 0.582240078335001
1/1/91 0.605382632017153 0.219531261693141
4/1/91 0.608687014268613 0.113477592453015
7/1/91 0.617042686857333 0.151908844682846
10/1/91 0.62370046687997 -0.278011022126107
1/1/92 0.631264565620361 -0.240272538772594
4/1/92 0.647973446527662 -0.21807308550026
7/1/92 0.661346723836929 -0.546117167244177
10/1/92 0.67108067231207 -0.27992298017427
1/1/93 0.681552362215748 -0.276334106009441
4/1/93 0.68919122005575 -0.132737458701963
7/1/93 0.695363700408447 -0.00360424595093055
10/1/93 0.707895199210516 0.114211437428964
1/1/94 0.719657147561574 0.274060057027008
4/1/94 0.735652288790233 0.677601020846234
7/1/94 0.746329266955235 0.839573307908059
10/1/94 0.763380493419114 1.06500633227839
1/1/95 0.771290816882019 1.12883078453175
4/1/95 0.769917220813769 1.03325406306592
7/1/95 0.765763742263857 0.954710984306465
10/1/95 0.768110136884301 0.909707519667157
1/1/96 0.76783780684829 0.815480272634748
4/1/96 0.77709194262361 0.875555813645098
7/1/96 0.779728172213939 0.883274146935296
10/1/96 0.783754970283393 0.817857681155662
1/1/97 0.785040623978512 0.865104939273314
4/1/97 0.791575081660263 0.825550404754836
7/1/97 0.792070600635609 0.834924137413832
10/1/97 0.787781514302601 0.83627659898851
1/1/98 0.780978422450642 0.847714670296078
4/1/98 0.774350794196966 0.815597575855946
7/1/98 0.774458866644719 0.74031813835945
10/1/98 0.768350633470435 0.485305838429563
1/1/99 0.764255392596025 0.669775947524908
4/1/99 0.761549118881166 0.710336573408623
7/1/99 0.763015183074606 0.769976878732235
10/1/99 0.771481961265541 0.879746723241856
1/1/00 0.766165598454976 1.02372979511009
4/1/00 0.773927573041163 1.03599254781078
7/1/00 0.76996040666267 1.08710019441503
10/1/00 0.765956108048368 1.07068403986032
1/1/01 0.743389509054396 0.666770522506306
4/1/01 0.730983652924026 0.224070982758826
7/1/01 0.709187822941242 0.103655989967929
10/1/01 0.692191270708888 -0.770646206165282
1/1/02 0.687419154384827 -0.521738297877764
4/1/02 0.688901375725893 -0.465545263286057
7/1/02 0.679645577464684 -0.52380067422231
10/1/02 0.664958810196987 -1.01123869502297
1/1/03 0.660215031185279 -0.649717159266546
4/1/03 0.652810638385217 -1.09853768454536
7/1/03 0.654833621762141 -1.06968434670047
10/1/03 0.672033032527059 -1.14632506546712
1/1/04 0.678613821715401 -1.13106533927809
4/1/04 0.673450033060547 -0.755254486887957
7/1/04 0.677476846777496 -0.209302611021654
10/1/04 0.679553335684542 0.190008939396723
1/1/05 0.693621252165498 0.451276681743376
4/1/05 0.699142898696065 0.543366480075566
7/1/05 0.703101447853184 0.725352479622004
10/1/05 0.702361637428157 0.863793241646889
1/1/06 0.709075034017804 1.01959297120437
4/1/06 0.709815154582736 1.04843390872773
7/1/06 0.704061874331213 1.051874955013
10/1/06 0.697672616785025 1.00963623888955

Figure 7 Data: M2 Velocity and Opportunity Cost(Taylog25) 1960:Q1 to 2006:Q4

quarter logv2 taylog25
1/1/60 0.598430078577075 0.974490359559277
4/1/60 0.589076613660054 0.504633987524299
7/1/60 0.577476489400487 0.00183384172452031
10/1/60 0.55398828583221 -0.0774369169728643
1/1/61 0.545852350118795 -0.056930750997552
4/1/61 0.548358979258882 -0.160458053599455
7/1/61 0.550827079518814 -0.249763779704906
10/1/61 0.55669620064094 -0.156973266998067
1/1/62 0.559204929479758 -0.195086842264998
4/1/62 0.550718635910455 -0.372073609306522
7/1/62 0.546735960123334 -0.246898706985686
10/1/62 0.532752401119482 -0.299158954059279
1/1/63 0.526175373915734 -0.179092295074375
4/1/63 0.519255476176902 -0.192011848374992
7/1/63 0.519666165882925 0.113304279088101
10/1/63 0.515618581965785 0.281830261442463
1/1/64 0.523718063442081 0.307182778344401
4/1/64 0.520957370174511 0.235521309155027
7/1/64 0.516160220178997 0.2393247569095
10/1/64 0.503919795211784 0.366412263909086
1/1/65 0.513523899972299 0.472155339475071
4/1/65 0.515063186238923 0.429154395152774
7/1/65 0.519919590847129 0.409820036405005
10/1/65 0.52833516126849 0.566717767627778
1/1/66 0.540075148639222 0.783409612325275
4/1/66 0.54043025342371 0.74990491634975
7/1/66 0.551290695823645 0.943628788079211
10/1/66 0.55823288645522 1.02068747121278
1/1/67 0.55546516389311 0.705700871342239
4/1/67 0.537699797213735 0.0741322957423773
7/1/67 0.529024133096072 0.556528511346228
10/1/67 0.527094763349322 0.799520299936125
1/1/68 0.541199791836193 0.935878721416749
4/1/68 0.5520545292781 1.10285734374809
7/1/68 0.549883081092351 0.975042769234154
10/1/68 0.545411321306802 1.11799425890171
1/1/69 0.554289949340414 1.28931313477647
4/1/69 0.561389642058242 1.30959658762831
7/1/69 0.575326822032878 1.52090170454807
10/1/69 0.575096814158171 1.59977973768712
1/1/70 0.583631017889032 1.5247345767931
4/1/70 0.592555848032696 1.36978976867722
7/1/70 0.587224928434693 1.26082597258793
10/1/70 0.563358981600488 0.882084166831329
1/1/71 0.573379586652018 -0.31462401658892
4/1/71 0.554250348480268 0.220610342836896
7/1/71 0.542868215390402 0.71616941913856
10/1/71 0.527350884057558 0.169755477317109
1/1/72 0.530806225579969 -1.0637208824992
4/1/72 0.535074545412487 -0.326422098924436
7/1/72 0.520469441430505 0.122185374253818
10/1/72 0.516900993980572 0.581821433087005
1/1/73 0.529287926533139 0.97269037340303
4/1/73 0.539419136667759 1.21757108333483
7/1/73 0.538922828484776 1.50930117659073
10/1/73 0.555104217041137 1.26698595639722
1/1/74 0.547297078127523 1.28627026927438
4/1/74 0.561412939643303 1.45227747898266
7/1/74 0.569645151792721 1.48888032364161
10/1/74 0.57946495082083 1.28314693432915
1/1/75 0.570805822379461 0.785603721190819
4/1/75 0.557348041432675 0.646293325523596
7/1/75 0.555640135256156 1.0430168472849
10/1/75 0.561680738990753 0.737799959813256
1/1/76 0.563065993034591 0.297029244179602
4/1/76 0.551113054007618 0.417110409345876
7/1/76 0.542817142575093 0.399140254533122
10/1/76 0.532224454465459 -0.169555040265632
1/1/77 0.526347462289539 -0.109928391463832
4/1/77 0.533152429608678 0.0351564572083988
7/1/77 0.5401145331285 0.481481996819683
10/1/77 0.541279321277903 0.804033275999306
1/1/78 0.541026395622952 0.950023313840795
4/1/78 0.578809900798438 0.963320787205769
7/1/78 0.586640530106454 1.12961507405356
10/1/78 0.602269241617474 1.35448786655862
1/1/79 0.607438552006582 1.51532912429865
4/1/79 0.609082976654752 1.49433239120201
7/1/79 0.614012416218941 1.53060501149968
10/1/79 0.621566340658245 1.79239664073808
1/1/80 0.628025024452155 1.93885754271451
4/1/80 0.614467024294946 1.21555010053457
7/1/80 0.605935476998878 1.33448242651867
10/1/80 0.630550564243991 1.9212649504662
1/1/81 0.658731579018734 1.95637127571974
4/1/81 0.643292088996936 2.0045283130291
7/1/81 0.654966094404529 1.9601019041877
10/1/81 0.636304184015635 1.4600846529272
1/1/82 0.610950796590302 1.67579107058718
4/1/82 0.607211612667036 1.61815915783996
7/1/82 0.601356523661584 0.865918210837211
10/1/82 0.591143130772444 0.8056609310677
1/1/83 0.558570332552321 0.985625072118027
4/1/83 0.562487923251576 0.96925020356598
7/1/83 0.57661276304478 1.10738699829311
10/1/83 0.586347965608116 0.968715082122584
1/1/84 0.595281264402892 1.07387756785247
4/1/84 0.599768927789908 1.18958848289767
7/1/84 0.604496103834408 1.20516416208126
10/1/84 0.597220747870022 0.826278001188281
1/1/85 0.588915127402494 0.797260439121662
4/1/85 0.586654606298314 0.549362806513879
7/1/85 0.586851125989485 0.541978154535485
10/1/85 0.58542436123593 0.537005543559041
1/1/86 0.584798838710965 0.359960458233064
4/1/86 0.567240696347463 0.119754473819863
7/1/86 0.55653169029542 -0.0741320103293689
10/1/86 0.54525775092241 -0.0361136257999744
1/1/87 0.543827514984821 0.196137225862088
4/1/87 0.55307610295567 0.263016735173638
7/1/87 0.563107117274033 0.424755347365613
10/1/87 0.576396372607992 0.141936206748772
1/1/88 0.572435066218695 0.018982486799438
4/1/88 0.576023095395525 0.418517225971987
7/1/88 0.584290321447602 0.74352038171176
10/1/88 0.596706819516895 0.937099380726628
1/1/89 0.61214437920948 1.11775324357325
4/1/89 0.623416453285155 0.938367310928139
7/1/89 0.619053473700724 0.784532216980728
10/1/89 0.608781430874058 0.752469811673402
1/1/90 0.616394065855394 0.886270293925199
4/1/90 0.622268110466994 0.87398836399133
7/1/90 0.620616034186185 0.782583563353926
10/1/90 0.612199795776102 0.582240078335001
1/1/91 0.605382632017153 0.219531261693141
4/1/91 0.608687014268613 0.113477592453015
7/1/91 0.617042686857333 0.151908844682846
10/1/91 0.62370046687997 -0.278011022126107
1/1/92 0.631264565620361 -0.240272538772594
4/1/92 0.647973446527662 -0.21807308550026
7/1/92 0.661346723836929 -0.546117167244177
10/1/92 0.67108067231207 -0.27992298017427
1/1/93 0.681552362215748 -0.276334106009441
4/1/93 0.68919122005575 -0.132737458701963
7/1/93 0.695363700408447 -0.00360424595093055
10/1/93 0.707895199210516 0.114211437428964
1/1/94 0.719657147561574 0.274060057027008
4/1/94 0.735652288790233 0.677601020846234
7/1/94 0.746329266955235 0.839573307908059
10/1/94 0.763380493419114 1.06500633227839
1/1/95 0.771290816882019 1.12883078453175
4/1/95 0.769917220813769 1.03325406306592
7/1/95 0.765763742263857 0.954710984306465
10/1/95 0.768110136884301 0.909707519667157
1/1/96 0.76783780684829 0.815480272634748
4/1/96 0.77709194262361 0.875555813645098
7/1/96 0.779728172213939 0.883274146935296
10/1/96 0.783754970283393 0.817857681155662
1/1/97 0.785040623978512 0.865104939273314
4/1/97 0.791575081660263 0.825550404754836
7/1/97 0.792070600635609 0.834924137413832
10/1/97 0.787781514302601 0.83627659898851
1/1/98 0.780978422450642 0.847714670296078
4/1/98 0.774350794196966 0.815597575855946
7/1/98 0.774458866644719 0.74031813835945
10/1/98 0.768350633470435 0.485305838429563
1/1/99 0.764255392596025 0.669775947524908
4/1/99 0.761549118881166 0.710336573408623
7/1/99 0.763015183074606 0.769976878732235
10/1/99 0.771481961265541 0.879746723241856
1/1/00 0.766165598454976 1.02372979511009
4/1/00 0.773927573041163 1.03599254781078
7/1/00 0.76996040666267 1.08710019441503
10/1/00 0.765956108048368 1.07068403986032
1/1/01 0.743389509054396 0.666770522506306
4/1/01 0.730983652924026 0.224070982758826
7/1/01 0.709187822941242 0.103655989967929
10/1/01 0.692191270708888 -0.770646206165282
1/1/02 0.687419154384827 -0.521738297877764
4/1/02 0.688901375725893 -0.465545263286057
7/1/02 0.679645577464684 -0.52380067422231
10/1/02 0.664958810196987 -1.01123869502297
1/1/03 0.660215031185279 -0.649717159266546
4/1/03 0.652810638385217 -1.09853768454536
7/1/03 0.654833621762141 -1.06968434670047
10/1/03 0.672033032527059 -1.14632506546712
1/1/04 0.678613821715401 -1.13106533927809
4/1/04 0.673450033060547 -0.755254486887957
7/1/04 0.677476846777496 -0.209302611021654
10/1/04 0.679553335684542 0.190008939396723
1/1/05 0.693621252165498 0.451276681743376
4/1/05 0.699142898696065 0.543366480075566
7/1/05 0.703101447853184 0.725352479622004
10/1/05 0.702361637428157 0.863793241646889
1/1/06 0.709075034017804 1.01959297120437
4/1/06 0.709815154582736 1.04843390872773
7/1/06 0.704061874331213 1.051874955013
10/1/06 0.697672616785025 1.00963623888955

Figure 8 Data: M2 Velocity and Opportunity Cost (Taylog50) 1960:Q1 to 2013:Q1

quarter logv2 taylog50
1/1/60 0.598430078577075 0.974490359559277
4/1/60 0.589076613660054 0.504633987524299
7/1/60 0.577476489400487 0.00183384172452031
10/1/60 0.55398828583221 -0.0774369169728643
1/1/61 0.545852350118795 -0.056930750997552
4/1/61 0.548358979258882 -0.160458053599455
7/1/61 0.550827079518814 -0.249763779704906
10/1/61 0.55669620064094 -0.156973266998067
1/1/62 0.559204929479758 -0.195086842264998
4/1/62 0.550718635910455 -0.372073609306522
7/1/62 0.546735960123334 -0.246898706985686
10/1/62 0.532752401119482 -0.299158954059279
1/1/63 0.526175373915734 -0.179092295074375
4/1/63 0.519255476176902 -0.192011848374992
7/1/63 0.519666165882925 0.113304279088101
10/1/63 0.515618581965785 0.281830261442463
1/1/64 0.523718063442081 0.307182778344401
4/1/64 0.520957370174511 0.235521309155027
7/1/64 0.516160220178997 0.2393247569095
10/1/64 0.503919795211784 0.366412263909086
1/1/65 0.513523899972299 0.472155339475071
4/1/65 0.515063186238923 0.429154395152774
7/1/65 0.519919590847129 0.409820036405005
10/1/65 0.52833516126849 0.566717767627778
1/1/66 0.540075148639222 0.783409612325275
4/1/66 0.54043025342371 0.74990491634975
7/1/66 0.551290695823645 0.943628788079211
10/1/66 0.55823288645522 1.02068747121278
1/1/67 0.55546516389311 0.705700871342239
4/1/67 0.537699797213735 0.0741322957423773
7/1/67 0.529024133096072 0.556528511346228
10/1/67 0.527094763349322 0.799520299936125
1/1/68 0.541199791836193 0.935878721416749
4/1/68 0.5520545292781 1.10285734374809
7/1/68 0.549883081092351 0.975042769234154
10/1/68 0.545411321306802 1.11799425890171
1/1/69 0.554289949340414 1.28931313477647
4/1/69 0.561389642058242 1.30959658762831
7/1/69 0.575326822032878 1.52090170454807
10/1/69 0.575096814158171 1.59977973768712
1/1/70 0.583631017889032 1.5247345767931
4/1/70 0.592555848032696 1.36978976867722
7/1/70 0.587224928434693 1.26082597258793
10/1/70 0.563358981600488 0.882084166831329
1/1/71 0.573379586652018 -0.294667697561831
4/1/71 0.554250348480268 0.220610342836896
7/1/71 0.542868215390402 0.71616941913856
10/1/71 0.527350884057558 0.169755477317109
1/1/72 0.530806225579969 -0.919868478332071
4/1/72 0.535074545412487 -0.326422098924436
7/1/72 0.520469441430505 0.122185374253818
10/1/72 0.516900993980572 0.581821433087005
1/1/73 0.529287926533139 0.97269037340303
4/1/73 0.539419136667759 1.21757108333483
7/1/73 0.538922828484776 1.50930117659073
10/1/73 0.555104217041137 1.26698595639722
1/1/74 0.547297078127523 1.28627026927438
4/1/74 0.561412939643303 1.45227747898266
7/1/74 0.569645151792721 1.48888032364161
10/1/74 0.57946495082083 1.28314693432915
1/1/75 0.570805822379461 0.785603721190819
4/1/75 0.557348041432675 0.646293325523596
7/1/75 0.555640135256156 1.0430168472849
10/1/75 0.561680738990753 0.737799959813256
1/1/76 0.563065993034591 0.297029244179602
4/1/76 0.551113054007618 0.417110409345876
7/1/76 0.542817142575093 0.399140254533122
10/1/76 0.532224454465459 -0.169555040265632
1/1/77 0.526347462289539 -0.109928391463832
4/1/77 0.533152429608678 0.0351564572083988
7/1/77 0.5401145331285 0.481481996819683
10/1/77 0.541279321277903 0.804033275999306
1/1/78 0.541026395622952 0.950023313840795
4/1/78 0.578809900798438 0.963320787205769
7/1/78 0.586640530106454 1.12961507405356
10/1/78 0.602269241617474 1.35448786655862
1/1/79 0.607438552006582 1.51532912429865
4/1/79 0.609082976654752 1.49433239120201
7/1/79 0.614012416218941 1.53060501149968
10/1/79 0.621566340658245 1.79239664073808
1/1/80 0.628025024452155 1.93885754271451
4/1/80 0.614467024294946 1.21555010053457
7/1/80 0.605935476998878 1.33448242651867
10/1/80 0.630550564243991 1.9212649504662
1/1/81 0.658731579018734 1.95637127571974
4/1/81 0.643292088996936 2.0045283130291
7/1/81 0.654966094404529 1.9601019041877
10/1/81 0.636304184015635 1.4600846529272
1/1/82 0.610950796590302 1.67579107058718
4/1/82 0.607211612667036 1.61815915783996
7/1/82 0.601356523661584 0.865918210837211
10/1/82 0.591143130772444 0.8056609310677
1/1/83 0.558570332552321 0.985625072118027
4/1/83 0.562487923251576 0.96925020356598
7/1/83 0.57661276304478 1.10738699829311
10/1/83 0.586347965608116 0.968715082122584
1/1/84 0.595281264402892 1.07387756785247
4/1/84 0.599768927789908 1.18958848289767
7/1/84 0.604496103834408 1.20516416208126
10/1/84 0.597220747870022 0.826278001188281
1/1/85 0.588915127402494 0.797260439121662
4/1/85 0.586654606298314 0.549362806513879
7/1/85 0.586851125989485 0.541978154535485
10/1/85 0.58542436123593 0.537005543559041
1/1/86 0.584798838710965 0.359960458233064
4/1/86 0.567240696347463 0.119754473819863
7/1/86 0.55653169029542 -0.0741320103293689
10/1/86 0.54525775092241 -0.0361136257999744
1/1/87 0.543827514984821 0.196137225862088
4/1/87 0.55307610295567 0.263016735173638
7/1/87 0.563107117274033 0.424755347365613
10/1/87 0.576396372607992 0.141936206748772
1/1/88 0.572435066218695 0.018982486799438
4/1/88 0.576023095395525 0.418517225971987
7/1/88 0.584290321447602 0.74352038171176
10/1/88 0.596706819516895 0.937099380726628
1/1/89 0.61214437920948 1.11775324357325
4/1/89 0.623416453285155 0.938367310928139
7/1/89 0.619053473700724 0.784532216980728
10/1/89 0.608781430874058 0.752469811673402
1/1/90 0.616394065855394 0.886270293925199
4/1/90 0.622268110466994 0.87398836399133
7/1/90 0.620616034186185 0.782583563353926
10/1/90 0.612199795776102 0.582240078335001
1/1/91 0.605382632017153 0.219531261693141
4/1/91 0.608687014268613 0.113477592453015
7/1/91 0.617042686857333 0.151908844682846
10/1/91 0.62370046687997 -0.278011022126107
1/1/92 0.631264565620361 -0.240272538772594
4/1/92 0.647973446527662 -0.21807308550026
7/1/92 0.661346723836929 -0.546117167244177
10/1/92 0.67108067231207 -0.27992298017427
1/1/93 0.681552362215748 -0.276334106009441
4/1/93 0.68919122005575 -0.132737458701963
7/1/93 0.695363700408447 -0.00360424595093055
10/1/93 0.707895199210516 0.114211437428964
1/1/94 0.719657147561574 0.274060057027008
4/1/94 0.735652288790233 0.677601020846234
7/1/94 0.746329266955235 0.839573307908059
10/1/94 0.763380493419114 1.06500633227839
1/1/95 0.771290816882019 1.12883078453175
4/1/95 0.769917220813769 1.03325406306592
7/1/95 0.765763742263857 0.954710984306465
10/1/95 0.768110136884301 0.909707519667157
1/1/96 0.76783780684829 0.815480272634748
4/1/96 0.77709194262361 0.875555813645098
7/1/96 0.779728172213939 0.883274146935296
10/1/96 0.783754970283393 0.817857681155662
1/1/97 0.785040623978512 0.865104939273314
4/1/97 0.791575081660263 0.825550404754836
7/1/97 0.792070600635609 0.834924137413832
10/1/97 0.787781514302601 0.83627659898851
1/1/98 0.780978422450642 0.847714670296078
4/1/98 0.774350794196966 0.815597575855946
7/1/98 0.774458866644719 0.74031813835945
10/1/98 0.768350633470435 0.485305838429563
1/1/99 0.764255392596025 0.669775947524908
4/1/99 0.761549118881166 0.710336573408623
7/1/99 0.763015183074606 0.769976878732235
10/1/99 0.771481961265541 0.879746723241856
1/1/00 0.766165598454976 1.02372979511009
4/1/00 0.773927573041163 1.03599254781078
7/1/00 0.76996040666267 1.08710019441503
10/1/00 0.765956108048368 1.07068403986032
1/1/01 0.743389509054396 0.666770522506306
4/1/01 0.730983652924026 0.224070982758826
7/1/01 0.709187822941242 0.103655989967929
10/1/01 0.692191270708888 -0.761336912261814
1/1/02 0.687419154384827 -0.521674742152712
4/1/02 0.688901375725893 -0.465545263286057
7/1/02 0.679645577464684 -0.52380067422231
10/1/02 0.664958810196987 -0.939109877841839
1/1/03 0.660215031185279 -0.641045115375949
4/1/03 0.652810638385217 -1.01299188722661
7/1/03 0.654833621762141 -1.00443363389328
10/1/03 0.672033032527059 -1.05717141389328
1/1/04 0.678613821715401 -1.04237026055995
4/1/04 0.673450033060547 -0.735537779106751
7/1/04 0.677476846777496 -0.209302611021654
10/1/04 0.679553335684542 0.190008939396723
1/1/05 0.693621252165498 0.451276681743376
4/1/05 0.699142898696065 0.543366480075566
7/1/05 0.703101447853184 0.725352479622004
10/1/05 0.702361637428157 0.863793241646889
1/1/06 0.709075034017804 1.01959297120437
4/1/06 0.709815154582736 1.04843390872773
7/1/06 0.704061874331213 1.051874955013
10/1/06 0.697672616785025 1.00963623888955
1/1/07 0.695033826904048 1.02965674769176
4/1/07 0.691761517967187 0.904142420689464
7/1/07 0.687355573024232 0.659561673547538
10/1/07 0.682856373209301 0.0800272860371039
1/1/08 0.663201449682062 -1.26324248993656
4/1/08 0.656326094765437 -0.910869946560461
7/1/08 0.646720924239559 -1.13093949432397
10/1/08 0.593059943271132 -3.30430172055995
1/1/09 0.550660101546765 -2.46814754055995
4/1/09 0.537174763840389 -2.32630631389328
7/1/09 0.537565256358347 -2.22448059389328
10/1/09 0.542308313787927 -2.35518300722661
1/1/10 0.55065821765701 -2.15728430055995
4/1/10 0.555130007498781 -2.01214082722661
7/1/10 0.55676716701341 -1.98440342722661
10/1/10 0.554387559529776 -1.97442490055995
1/1/11 0.543299217085186 -1.93771926722661
4/1/11 0.539956340322195 -2.08016186055995
7/1/11 0.504433732560304 -2.10416209389328
10/1/11 0.499635512059476 -2.06199234722661
1/1/12 0.497997018619341 -1.82901143389328
4/1/12 0.492627848182858 -1.78487169389328
7/1/12 0.482590800499574 -1.76821340055995
10/1/12 0.463823940667672 -1.78694936055995
1/1/13 0.457850853094533 -1.76459006722661

Figure 9 Data: M2 Velocity and Opportunity Cost (Taylog50) 1960:Q1 to 2013:Q1

quarter logv2 taylog50
1/1/60 0.598430078577075 0.974490359559277
4/1/60 0.589076613660054 0.504633987524299
7/1/60 0.577476489400487 0.00183384172452031
10/1/60 0.55398828583221 -0.0774369169728643
1/1/61 0.545852350118795 -0.056930750997552
4/1/61 0.548358979258882 -0.160458053599455
7/1/61 0.550827079518814 -0.249763779704906
10/1/61 0.55669620064094 -0.156973266998067
1/1/62 0.559204929479758 -0.195086842264998
4/1/62 0.550718635910455 -0.372073609306522
7/1/62 0.546735960123334 -0.246898706985686
10/1/62 0.532752401119482 -0.299158954059279
1/1/63 0.526175373915734 -0.179092295074375
4/1/63 0.519255476176902 -0.192011848374992
7/1/63 0.519666165882925 0.113304279088101
10/1/63 0.515618581965785 0.281830261442463
1/1/64 0.523718063442081 0.307182778344401
4/1/64 0.520957370174511 0.235521309155027
7/1/64 0.516160220178997 0.2393247569095
10/1/64 0.503919795211784 0.366412263909086
1/1/65 0.513523899972299 0.472155339475071
4/1/65 0.515063186238923 0.429154395152774
7/1/65 0.519919590847129 0.409820036405005
10/1/65 0.52833516126849 0.566717767627778
1/1/66 0.540075148639222 0.783409612325275
4/1/66 0.54043025342371 0.74990491634975
7/1/66 0.551290695823645 0.943628788079211
10/1/66 0.55823288645522 1.02068747121278
1/1/67 0.55546516389311 0.705700871342239
4/1/67 0.537699797213735 0.0741322957423773
7/1/67 0.529024133096072 0.556528511346228
10/1/67 0.527094763349322 0.799520299936125
1/1/68 0.541199791836193 0.935878721416749
4/1/68 0.5520545292781 1.10285734374809
7/1/68 0.549883081092351 0.975042769234154
10/1/68 0.545411321306802 1.11799425890171
1/1/69 0.554289949340414 1.28931313477647
4/1/69 0.561389642058242 1.30959658762831
7/1/69 0.575326822032878 1.52090170454807
10/1/69 0.575096814158171 1.59977973768712
1/1/70 0.583631017889032 1.5247345767931
4/1/70 0.592555848032696 1.36978976867722
7/1/70 0.587224928434693 1.26082597258793
10/1/70 0.563358981600488 0.882084166831329
1/1/71 0.573379586652018 -0.294667697561831
4/1/71 0.554250348480268 0.220610342836896
7/1/71 0.542868215390402 0.71616941913856
10/1/71 0.527350884057558 0.169755477317109
1/1/72 0.530806225579969 -0.919868478332071
4/1/72 0.535074545412487 -0.326422098924436
7/1/72 0.520469441430505 0.122185374253818
10/1/72 0.516900993980572 0.581821433087005
1/1/73 0.529287926533139 0.97269037340303
4/1/73 0.539419136667759 1.21757108333483
7/1/73 0.538922828484776 1.50930117659073
10/1/73 0.555104217041137 1.26698595639722
1/1/74 0.547297078127523 1.28627026927438
4/1/74 0.561412939643303 1.45227747898266
7/1/74 0.569645151792721 1.48888032364161
10/1/74 0.57946495082083 1.28314693432915
1/1/75 0.570805822379461 0.785603721190819
4/1/75 0.557348041432675 0.646293325523596
7/1/75 0.555640135256156 1.0430168472849
10/1/75 0.561680738990753 0.737799959813256
1/1/76 0.563065993034591 0.297029244179602
4/1/76 0.551113054007618 0.417110409345876
7/1/76 0.542817142575093 0.399140254533122
10/1/76 0.532224454465459 -0.169555040265632
1/1/77 0.526347462289539 -0.109928391463832
4/1/77 0.533152429608678 0.0351564572083988
7/1/77 0.5401145331285 0.481481996819683
10/1/77 0.541279321277903 0.804033275999306
1/1/78 0.541026395622952 0.950023313840795
4/1/78 0.578809900798438 0.963320787205769
7/1/78 0.586640530106454 1.12961507405356
10/1/78 0.602269241617474 1.35448786655862
1/1/79 0.607438552006582 1.51532912429865
4/1/79 0.609082976654752 1.49433239120201
7/1/79 0.614012416218941 1.53060501149968
10/1/79 0.621566340658245 1.79239664073808
1/1/80 0.628025024452155 1.93885754271451
4/1/80 0.614467024294946 1.21555010053457
7/1/80 0.605935476998878 1.33448242651867
10/1/80 0.630550564243991 1.9212649504662
1/1/81 0.658731579018734 1.95637127571974
4/1/81 0.643292088996936 2.0045283130291
7/1/81 0.654966094404529 1.9601019041877
10/1/81 0.636304184015635 1.4600846529272
1/1/82 0.610950796590302 1.67579107058718
4/1/82 0.607211612667036 1.61815915783996
7/1/82 0.601356523661584 0.865918210837211
10/1/82 0.591143130772444 0.8056609310677
1/1/83 0.558570332552321 0.985625072118027
4/1/83 0.562487923251576 0.96925020356598
7/1/83 0.57661276304478 1.10738699829311
10/1/83 0.586347965608116 0.968715082122584
1/1/84 0.595281264402892 1.07387756785247
4/1/84 0.599768927789908 1.18958848289767
7/1/84 0.604496103834408 1.20516416208126
10/1/84 0.597220747870022 0.826278001188281
1/1/85 0.588915127402494 0.797260439121662
4/1/85 0.586654606298314 0.549362806513879
7/1/85 0.586851125989485 0.541978154535485
10/1/85 0.58542436123593 0.537005543559041
1/1/86 0.584798838710965 0.359960458233064
4/1/86 0.567240696347463 0.119754473819863
7/1/86 0.55653169029542 -0.0741320103293689
10/1/86 0.54525775092241 -0.0361136257999744
1/1/87 0.543827514984821 0.196137225862088
4/1/87 0.55307610295567 0.263016735173638
7/1/87 0.563107117274033 0.424755347365613
10/1/87 0.576396372607992 0.141936206748772
1/1/88 0.572435066218695 0.018982486799438
4/1/88 0.576023095395525 0.418517225971987
7/1/88 0.584290321447602 0.74352038171176
10/1/88 0.596706819516895 0.937099380726628
1/1/89 0.61214437920948 1.11775324357325
4/1/89 0.623416453285155 0.938367310928139
7/1/89 0.619053473700724 0.784532216980728
10/1/89 0.608781430874058 0.752469811673402
1/1/90 0.616394065855394 0.886270293925199
4/1/90 0.622268110466994 0.87398836399133
7/1/90 0.620616034186185 0.782583563353926
10/1/90 0.612199795776102 0.582240078335001
1/1/91 0.605382632017153 0.219531261693141
4/1/91 0.608687014268613 0.113477592453015
7/1/91 0.617042686857333 0.151908844682846
10/1/91 0.62370046687997 -0.278011022126107
1/1/92 0.631264565620361 -0.240272538772594
4/1/92 0.647973446527662 -0.21807308550026
7/1/92 0.661346723836929 -0.546117167244177
10/1/92 0.67108067231207 -0.27992298017427
1/1/93 0.681552362215748 -0.276334106009441
4/1/93 0.68919122005575 -0.132737458701963
7/1/93 0.695363700408447 -0.00360424595093055
10/1/93 0.707895199210516 0.114211437428964
1/1/94 0.719657147561574 0.274060057027008
4/1/94 0.735652288790233 0.677601020846234
7/1/94 0.746329266955235 0.839573307908059
10/1/94 0.763380493419114 1.06500633227839
1/1/95 0.771290816882019 1.12883078453175
4/1/95 0.769917220813769 1.03325406306592
7/1/95 0.765763742263857 0.954710984306465
10/1/95 0.768110136884301 0.909707519667157
1/1/96 0.76783780684829 0.815480272634748
4/1/96 0.77709194262361 0.875555813645098
7/1/96 0.779728172213939 0.883274146935296
10/1/96 0.783754970283393 0.817857681155662
1/1/97 0.785040623978512 0.865104939273314
4/1/97 0.791575081660263 0.825550404754836
7/1/97 0.792070600635609 0.834924137413832
10/1/97 0.787781514302601 0.83627659898851
1/1/98 0.780978422450642 0.847714670296078
4/1/98 0.774350794196966 0.815597575855946
7/1/98 0.774458866644719 0.74031813835945
10/1/98 0.768350633470435 0.485305838429563
1/1/99 0.764255392596025 0.669775947524908
4/1/99 0.761549118881166 0.710336573408623
7/1/99 0.763015183074606 0.769976878732235
10/1/99 0.771481961265541 0.879746723241856
1/1/00 0.766165598454976 1.02372979511009
4/1/00 0.773927573041163 1.03599254781078
7/1/00 0.76996040666267 1.08710019441503
10/1/00 0.765956108048368 1.07068403986032
1/1/01 0.743389509054396 0.666770522506306
4/1/01 0.730983652924026 0.224070982758826
7/1/01 0.709187822941242 0.103655989967929
10/1/01 0.692191270708888 -0.761336912261814
1/1/02 0.687419154384827 -0.521674742152712
4/1/02 0.688901375725893 -0.465545263286057
7/1/02 0.679645577464684 -0.52380067422231
10/1/02 0.664958810196987 -0.939109877841839
1/1/03 0.660215031185279 -0.641045115375949
4/1/03 0.652810638385217 -1.01299188722661
7/1/03 0.654833621762141 -1.00443363389328
10/1/03 0.672033032527059 -1.05717141389328
1/1/04 0.678613821715401 -1.04237026055995
4/1/04 0.673450033060547 -0.735537779106751
7/1/04 0.677476846777496 -0.209302611021654
10/1/04 0.679553335684542 0.190008939396723
1/1/05 0.693621252165498 0.451276681743376
4/1/05 0.699142898696065 0.543366480075566
7/1/05 0.703101447853184 0.725352479622004
10/1/05 0.702361637428157 0.863793241646889
1/1/06 0.709075034017804 1.01959297120437
4/1/06 0.709815154582736 1.04843390872773
7/1/06 0.704061874331213 1.051874955013
10/1/06 0.697672616785025 1.00963623888955
1/1/07 0.695033826904048 1.02965674769176
4/1/07 0.691761517967187 0.904142420689464
7/1/07 0.687355573024232 0.659561673547538
10/1/07 0.682856373209301 0.0800272860371039
1/1/08 0.663201449682062 -1.26324248993656
4/1/08 0.656326094765437 -0.910869946560461
7/1/08 0.646720924239559 -1.13093949432397
10/1/08 0.593059943271132 -3.30430172055995
1/1/09 0.550660101546765 -2.46814754055995
4/1/09 0.537174763840389 -2.32630631389328
7/1/09 0.537565256358347 -2.22448059389328
10/1/09 0.542308313787927 -2.35518300722661
1/1/10 0.55065821765701 -2.15728430055995
4/1/10 0.555130007498781 -2.01214082722661
7/1/10 0.55676716701341 -1.98440342722661
10/1/10 0.554387559529776 -1.97442490055995
1/1/11 0.543299217085186 -1.93771926722661
4/1/11 0.539956340322195 -2.08016186055995
7/1/11 0.504433732560304 -2.10416209389328
10/1/11 0.499635512059476 -2.06199234722661
1/1/12 0.497997018619341 -1.82901143389328
4/1/12 0.492627848182858 -1.78487169389328
7/1/12 0.482590800499574 -1.76821340055995
10/1/12 0.463823940667672 -1.78694936055995
1/1/13 0.457850853094533 -1.76459006722661

Figure 10 Data: Static Model Coefficient Estimates Across Time Beginning at 1964:Q1

Quarter Taylog25 Ceofficient Value Constant Coefficient Value
10/1/83 0.043866753578186 0.523554742336273
1/1/84 0.0437109582126141 0.52417254447937
4/1/84 0.0435898900032043 0.524749517440796
7/1/84 0.0433593392372131 0.525545597076416
10/1/84 0.0423946380615234 0.527381062507629
1/1/85 0.0416310578584671 0.528881251811981
4/1/85 0.0404885150492191 0.530807673931122
7/1/85 0.0394022203981876 0.532619476318359
10/1/85 0.0385219156742096 0.534191787242889
1/1/86 0.0375732220709324 0.535859405994415
4/1/86 0.0366150662302971 0.537396669387817
7/1/86 0.0358644686639309 0.538628280162811
10/1/86 0.0356687679886818 0.539119899272919
1/1/87 0.0356624573469162 0.539207339286804
4/1/87 0.0354492776095867 0.539510607719421
7/1/87 0.034953884780407 0.540447890758514
10/1/87 0.0340433232486248 0.542176365852356
1/1/88 0.0332659557461739 0.543652296066284
4/1/88 0.0331877395510674 0.544305741786957
7/1/88 0.0331981182098389 0.544822692871094
10/1/88 0.0335080921649933 0.545265972614288
1/1/89 0.0341745167970657 0.545475482940674
4/1/89 0.0346681252121925 0.545978009700775
7/1/89 0.0350439622998238 0.546518683433533
10/1/89 0.0355964489281178 0.546838998794556
1/1/90 0.0360422097146511 0.547155439853668
4/1/90 0.0361627414822578 0.547648966312408
7/1/90 0.0361719541251659 0.548274874687195
10/1/90 0.035842701792717 0.549294292926788
1/1/91 0.0362242870032787 0.549135684967041
4/1/91 0.0347748585045338 0.551075756549835
7/1/91 0.0332459956407547 0.553514957427979
10/1/91 0.02964798361063 0.557866334915161
1/1/92 0.0268279779702425 0.56116658449173
4/1/92 0.0225339289754629 0.566125273704529
7/1/92 0.0162255130708218 0.573286712169647
10/1/92 0.01196906901896 0.578859686851501
1/1/93 0.00864091981202364 0.583611845970154
4/1/93 0.00631316052749753 0.587452411651611
7/1/93 0.0050694546662271 0.590477585792542
10/1/93 0.00342426565475762 0.593693852424622
1/1/94 0.00248492020182312 0.596583962440491
4/1/94 0.0031628932338208 0.598292946815491
7/1/94 0.00399793405085802 0.598115861415863
10/1/94 0.00450402917340398 0.598061203956604
1/1/95 0.00464116968214512 0.598363816738129
4/1/95 0.00455404724925756 0.599004864692688
7/1/95 0.00508210761472583 0.599273681640625
10/1/95 0.00511252088472247 0.599810898303986
1/1/96 0.00456680683419108 0.600723087787628
4/1/96 0.00402559293434024 0.601825535297394
7/1/96 0.00335199595429003 0.603163957595825
10/1/96 0.00112248456571251 0.605801820755005
1/1/97 -0.00128166261129081 0.608741283416748
4/1/97 -0.00328504387289286 0.611364483833313
7/1/97 -0.00402760785073042 0.612967908382416
10/1/97 -0.00394942471757531 0.613945722579956
1/1/98 -0.0034795452374965 0.614654958248138
4/1/98 -0.00323014473542571 0.614975094795227
7/1/98 -0.0028827867936343 0.615107774734497
10/1/98 -0.00257168151438236 0.615022778511047
1/1/99 -0.00238744402304292 0.614949941635132
4/1/99 -0.00225117430090904 0.614891409873962
7/1/99 -0.00230308924801648 0.614884078502655
10/1/99 -0.00279615772888064 0.615031957626343
1/1/00 -0.00387300760485232 0.615415036678314
4/1/00 -0.00395329762250185 0.615399718284607
7/1/00 -0.00384061387740076 0.615404546260834
10/1/00 -0.00533221382647753 0.615896344184875
1/1/01 -0.00889791082590818 0.616973459720612
4/1/01 -0.0109524689614773 0.617267966270447
7/1/01 -0.0132030742242932 0.617298662662506
10/1/01 -0.0066738766618073 0.613199889659882
1/1/02 -0.0010909583652392 0.610300302505493
4/1/02 0.00395654793828726 0.607990205287933
7/1/02 0.00894303247332573 0.605937600135803
10/1/02 0.0152335437014699 0.603604376316071
1/1/03 0.020800556987524 0.602517366409302
4/1/03 0.0263430923223495 0.601541876792908
7/1/03 0.0307976379990578 0.600987493991852
10/1/03 0.0330381579697132 0.601164698600769
1/1/04 0.0346955619752407 0.601548790931702
4/1/04 0.0368931964039803 0.601841449737549
7/1/04 0.0388281792402267 0.602265477180481
10/1/04 0.0397081337869167 0.602959275245667
1/1/05 0.040271207690239 0.604020416736603
4/1/05 0.040305282920599 0.605107069015503
7/1/05 0.0400558263063431 0.606326520442963
10/1/05 0.0395490825176239 0.607720077037811
1/1/06 0.0385980755090714 0.609118342399597
4/1/06 0.0373253226280212 0.610942423343658
7/1/06 0.0356421731412411 0.613118827342987
10/1/06 0.0338943041861057 0.615887880325317
1/1/07 0.0325478091835976 0.619031012058258
4/1/07 0.0316482223570347 0.621980786323547
7/1/07 0.0315654240548611 0.624685406684875
10/1/07 0.0316732488572598 0.626680076122284
1/1/08 0.0311038419604301 0.629065096378326
4/1/08 0.0321682393550873 0.631463944911957
7/1/08 0.0338028706610203 0.634040951728821
10/1/08 0.0291999168694019 0.638494610786438
1/1/09 0.0319724604487419 0.640620231628418
4/1/09 0.0344246476888657 0.642460882663727
7/1/09 0.0363570712506771 0.644763112068176
10/1/09 0.0376286581158638 0.64809113740921
1/1/10 0.0388152450323105 0.651790738105774
4/1/10 0.0399093776941299 0.655691862106323
7/1/10 0.040867056697607 0.660102307796478
10/1/10 0.0417243763804436 0.665249526500702
1/1/11 0.0425486825406551 0.670600056648254
4/1/11 0.0431754626333714 0.676201403141022
7/1/11 0.0442669875919819 0.682265937328339
10/1/11 0.045207753777504 0.686951220035553
1/1/12 0.0461687967181206 0.691973447799683
4/1/12 0.0471293590962887 0.696235656738281
7/1/12 0.0481294877827168 0.697489559650421
10/1/12 0.0492462404072285 0.69952404499054
1/1/13 0.0503570400178432 0.700190246105194
4/1/13 0.0514236278831959 0.700985670089722
7/1/13 0.0514149144291878 0.702800989151001
10/1/13 0.0514136590063572 0.703190505504608

Note: quarters correspond to the last quarter used in each 10 year rolling window estimate.

Figure 11 Data: M2 Velocity and Opportunity Cost (Taylog50) 1960:Q1 to 2013:Q1

quarter logv2 taylog50
1/1/60 0.598430078577075 0.974490359559277
4/1/60 0.589076613660054 0.504633987524299
7/1/60 0.577476489400487 0.00183384172452031
10/1/60 0.55398828583221 -0.0774369169728643
1/1/61 0.545852350118795 -0.056930750997552
4/1/61 0.548358979258882 -0.160458053599455
7/1/61 0.550827079518814 -0.249763779704906
10/1/61 0.55669620064094 -0.156973266998067
1/1/62 0.559204929479758 -0.195086842264998
4/1/62 0.550718635910455 -0.372073609306522
7/1/62 0.546735960123334 -0.246898706985686
10/1/62 0.532752401119482 -0.299158954059279
1/1/63 0.526175373915734 -0.179092295074375
4/1/63 0.519255476176902 -0.192011848374992
7/1/63 0.519666165882925 0.113304279088101
10/1/63 0.515618581965785 0.281830261442463
1/1/64 0.523718063442081 0.307182778344401
4/1/64 0.520957370174511 0.235521309155027
7/1/64 0.516160220178997 0.2393247569095
10/1/64 0.503919795211784 0.366412263909086
1/1/65 0.513523899972299 0.472155339475071
4/1/65 0.515063186238923 0.429154395152774
7/1/65 0.519919590847129 0.409820036405005
10/1/65 0.52833516126849 0.566717767627778
1/1/66 0.540075148639222 0.783409612325275
4/1/66 0.54043025342371 0.74990491634975
7/1/66 0.551290695823645 0.943628788079211
10/1/66 0.55823288645522 1.02068747121278
1/1/67 0.55546516389311 0.705700871342239
4/1/67 0.537699797213735 0.0741322957423773
7/1/67 0.529024133096072 0.556528511346228
10/1/67 0.527094763349322 0.799520299936125
1/1/68 0.541199791836193 0.935878721416749
4/1/68 0.5520545292781 1.10285734374809
7/1/68 0.549883081092351 0.975042769234154
10/1/68 0.545411321306802 1.11799425890171
1/1/69 0.554289949340414 1.28931313477647
4/1/69 0.561389642058242 1.30959658762831
7/1/69 0.575326822032878 1.52090170454807
10/1/69 0.575096814158171 1.59977973768712
1/1/70 0.583631017889032 1.5247345767931
4/1/70 0.592555848032696 1.36978976867722
7/1/70 0.587224928434693 1.26082597258793
10/1/70 0.563358981600488 0.882084166831329
1/1/71 0.573379586652018 -0.294667697561831
4/1/71 0.554250348480268 0.220610342836896
7/1/71 0.542868215390402 0.71616941913856
10/1/71 0.527350884057558 0.169755477317109
1/1/72 0.530806225579969 -0.919868478332071
4/1/72 0.535074545412487 -0.326422098924436
7/1/72 0.520469441430505 0.122185374253818
10/1/72 0.516900993980572 0.581821433087005
1/1/73 0.529287926533139 0.97269037340303
4/1/73 0.539419136667759 1.21757108333483
7/1/73 0.538922828484776 1.50930117659073
10/1/73 0.555104217041137 1.26698595639722
1/1/74 0.547297078127523 1.28627026927438
4/1/74 0.561412939643303 1.45227747898266
7/1/74 0.569645151792721 1.48888032364161
10/1/74 0.57946495082083 1.28314693432915
1/1/75 0.570805822379461 0.785603721190819
4/1/75 0.557348041432675 0.646293325523596
7/1/75 0.555640135256156 1.0430168472849
10/1/75 0.561680738990753 0.737799959813256
1/1/76 0.563065993034591 0.297029244179602
4/1/76 0.551113054007618 0.417110409345876
7/1/76 0.542817142575093 0.399140254533122
10/1/76 0.532224454465459 -0.169555040265632
1/1/77 0.526347462289539 -0.109928391463832
4/1/77 0.533152429608678 0.0351564572083988
7/1/77 0.5401145331285 0.481481996819683
10/1/77 0.541279321277903 0.804033275999306
1/1/78 0.541026395622952 0.950023313840795
4/1/78 0.578809900798438 0.963320787205769
7/1/78 0.586640530106454 1.12961507405356
10/1/78 0.602269241617474 1.35448786655862
1/1/79 0.607438552006582 1.51532912429865
4/1/79 0.609082976654752 1.49433239120201
7/1/79 0.614012416218941 1.53060501149968
10/1/79 0.621566340658245 1.79239664073808
1/1/80 0.628025024452155 1.93885754271451
4/1/80 0.614467024294946 1.21555010053457
7/1/80 0.605935476998878 1.33448242651867
10/1/80 0.630550564243991 1.9212649504662
1/1/81 0.658731579018734 1.95637127571974
4/1/81 0.643292088996936 2.0045283130291
7/1/81 0.654966094404529 1.9601019041877
10/1/81 0.636304184015635 1.4600846529272
1/1/82 0.610950796590302 1.67579107058718
4/1/82 0.607211612667036 1.61815915783996
7/1/82 0.601356523661584 0.865918210837211
10/1/82 0.591143130772444 0.8056609310677
1/1/83 0.558570332552321 0.985625072118027
4/1/83 0.562487923251576 0.96925020356598
7/1/83 0.57661276304478 1.10738699829311
10/1/83 0.586347965608116 0.968715082122584
1/1/84 0.595281264402892 1.07387756785247
4/1/84 0.599768927789908 1.18958848289767
7/1/84 0.604496103834408 1.20516416208126
10/1/84 0.597220747870022 0.826278001188281
1/1/85 0.588915127402494 0.797260439121662
4/1/85 0.586654606298314 0.549362806513879
7/1/85 0.586851125989485 0.541978154535485
10/1/85 0.58542436123593 0.537005543559041
1/1/86 0.584798838710965 0.359960458233064
4/1/86 0.567240696347463 0.119754473819863
7/1/86 0.55653169029542 -0.0741320103293689
10/1/86 0.54525775092241 -0.0361136257999744
1/1/87 0.543827514984821 0.196137225862088
4/1/87 0.55307610295567 0.263016735173638
7/1/87 0.563107117274033 0.424755347365613
10/1/87 0.576396372607992 0.141936206748772
1/1/88 0.572435066218695 0.018982486799438
4/1/88 0.576023095395525 0.418517225971987
7/1/88 0.584290321447602 0.74352038171176
10/1/88 0.596706819516895 0.937099380726628
1/1/89 0.61214437920948 1.11775324357325
4/1/89 0.623416453285155 0.938367310928139
7/1/89 0.619053473700724 0.784532216980728
10/1/89 0.608781430874058 0.752469811673402
1/1/90 0.616394065855394 0.886270293925199
4/1/90 0.622268110466994 0.87398836399133
7/1/90 0.620616034186185 0.782583563353926
10/1/90 0.612199795776102 0.582240078335001
1/1/91 0.605382632017153 0.219531261693141
4/1/91 0.608687014268613 0.113477592453015
7/1/91 0.617042686857333 0.151908844682846
10/1/91 0.62370046687997 -0.278011022126107
1/1/92 0.631264565620361 -0.240272538772594
4/1/92 0.647973446527662 -0.21807308550026
7/1/92 0.661346723836929 -0.546117167244177
10/1/92 0.67108067231207 -0.27992298017427
1/1/93 0.681552362215748 -0.276334106009441
4/1/93 0.68919122005575 -0.132737458701963
7/1/93 0.695363700408447 -0.00360424595093055
10/1/93 0.707895199210516 0.114211437428964
1/1/94 0.719657147561574 0.274060057027008
4/1/94 0.735652288790233 0.677601020846234
7/1/94 0.746329266955235 0.839573307908059
10/1/94 0.763380493419114 1.06500633227839
1/1/95 0.771290816882019 1.12883078453175
4/1/95 0.769917220813769 1.03325406306592
7/1/95 0.765763742263857 0.954710984306465
10/1/95 0.768110136884301 0.909707519667157
1/1/96 0.76783780684829 0.815480272634748
4/1/96 0.77709194262361 0.875555813645098
7/1/96 0.779728172213939 0.883274146935296
10/1/96 0.783754970283393 0.817857681155662
1/1/97 0.785040623978512 0.865104939273314
4/1/97 0.791575081660263 0.825550404754836
7/1/97 0.792070600635609 0.834924137413832
10/1/97 0.787781514302601 0.83627659898851
1/1/98 0.780978422450642 0.847714670296078
4/1/98 0.774350794196966 0.815597575855946
7/1/98 0.774458866644719 0.74031813835945
10/1/98 0.768350633470435 0.485305838429563
1/1/99 0.764255392596025 0.669775947524908
4/1/99 0.761549118881166 0.710336573408623
7/1/99 0.763015183074606 0.769976878732235
10/1/99 0.771481961265541 0.879746723241856
1/1/00 0.766165598454976 1.02372979511009
4/1/00 0.773927573041163 1.03599254781078
7/1/00 0.76996040666267 1.08710019441503
10/1/00 0.765956108048368 1.07068403986032
1/1/01 0.743389509054396 0.666770522506306
4/1/01 0.730983652924026 0.224070982758826
7/1/01 0.709187822941242 0.103655989967929
10/1/01 0.692191270708888 -0.761336912261814
1/1/02 0.687419154384827 -0.521674742152712
4/1/02 0.688901375725893 -0.465545263286057
7/1/02 0.679645577464684 -0.52380067422231
10/1/02 0.664958810196987 -0.939109877841839
1/1/03 0.660215031185279 -0.641045115375949
4/1/03 0.652810638385217 -1.01299188722661
7/1/03 0.654833621762141 -1.00443363389328
10/1/03 0.672033032527059 -1.05717141389328
1/1/04 0.678613821715401 -1.04237026055995
4/1/04 0.673450033060547 -0.735537779106751
7/1/04 0.677476846777496 -0.209302611021654
10/1/04 0.679553335684542 0.190008939396723
1/1/05 0.693621252165498 0.451276681743376
4/1/05 0.699142898696065 0.543366480075566
7/1/05 0.703101447853184 0.725352479622004
10/1/05 0.702361637428157 0.863793241646889
1/1/06 0.709075034017804 1.01959297120437
4/1/06 0.709815154582736 1.04843390872773
7/1/06 0.704061874331213 1.051874955013
10/1/06 0.697672616785025 1.00963623888955
1/1/07 0.695033826904048 1.02965674769176
4/1/07 0.691761517967187 0.904142420689464
7/1/07 0.687355573024232 0.659561673547538
10/1/07 0.682856373209301 0.0800272860371039
1/1/08 0.663201449682062 -1.26324248993656
4/1/08 0.656326094765437 -0.910869946560461
7/1/08 0.646720924239559 -1.13093949432397
10/1/08 0.593059943271132 -3.30430172055995
1/1/09 0.550660101546765 -2.46814754055995
4/1/09 0.537174763840389 -2.32630631389328
7/1/09 0.537565256358347 -2.22448059389328
10/1/09 0.542308313787927 -2.35518300722661
1/1/10 0.55065821765701 -2.15728430055995
4/1/10 0.555130007498781 -2.01214082722661
7/1/10 0.55676716701341 -1.98440342722661
10/1/10 0.554387559529776 -1.97442490055995
1/1/11 0.543299217085186 -1.93771926722661
4/1/11 0.539956340322195 -2.08016186055995
7/1/11 0.504433732560304 -2.10416209389328
10/1/11 0.499635512059476 -2.06199234722661
1/1/12 0.497997018619341 -1.82901143389328
4/1/12 0.492627848182858 -1.78487169389328
7/1/12 0.482590800499574 -1.76821340055995
10/1/12 0.463823940667672 -1.78694936055995
1/1/13 0.457850853094533 -1.76459006722661

Figure 12 Data: M2 Velocity and Opportunity Cost (Taylog00) 1960:Q1 to 2013:Q1

quarter logv2 taylog00
1/1/60 0.598430078577075 0.974490359559277
4/1/60 0.589076613660054 0.504633987524299
7/1/60 0.577476489400487 0.00183384172452031
10/1/60 0.55398828583221 -0.0774369169728643
1/1/61 0.545852350118795 -0.056930750997552
4/1/61 0.548358979258882 -0.160458053599455
7/1/61 0.550827079518814 -0.249763779704906
10/1/61 0.55669620064094 -0.156973266998067
1/1/62 0.559204929479758 -0.195086842264998
4/1/62 0.550718635910455 -0.372073609306522
7/1/62 0.546735960123334 -0.246898706985686
10/1/62 0.532752401119482 -0.299158954059279
1/1/63 0.526175373915734 -0.179092295074375
4/1/63 0.519255476176902 -0.192011848374992
7/1/63 0.519666165882925 0.113304279088101
10/1/63 0.515618581965785 0.281830261442463
1/1/64 0.523718063442081 0.307182778344401
4/1/64 0.520957370174511 0.235521309155027
7/1/64 0.516160220178997 0.2393247569095
10/1/64 0.503919795211784 0.366412263909086
1/1/65 0.513523899972299 0.472155339475071
4/1/65 0.515063186238923 0.429154395152774
7/1/65 0.519919590847129 0.409820036405005
10/1/65 0.52833516126849 0.566717767627778
1/1/66 0.540075148639222 0.783409612325275
4/1/66 0.54043025342371 0.74990491634975
7/1/66 0.551290695823645 0.943628788079211
10/1/66 0.55823288645522 1.02068747121278
1/1/67 0.55546516389311 0.705700871342239
4/1/67 0.537699797213735 0.0741322957423773
7/1/67 0.529024133096072 0.556528511346228
10/1/67 0.527094763349322 0.799520299936125
1/1/68 0.541199791836193 0.935878721416749
4/1/68 0.5520545292781 1.10285734374809
7/1/68 0.549883081092351 0.975042769234154
10/1/68 0.545411321306802 1.11799425890171
1/1/69 0.554289949340414 1.28931313477647
4/1/69 0.561389642058242 1.30959658762831
7/1/69 0.575326822032878 1.52090170454807
10/1/69 0.575096814158171 1.59977973768712
1/1/70 0.583631017889032 1.5247345767931
4/1/70 0.592555848032696 1.36978976867722
7/1/70 0.587224928434693 1.26082597258793
10/1/70 0.563358981600488 0.882084166831329
1/1/71 0.573379586652018 -0.294667697561831
4/1/71 0.554250348480268 0.220610342836896
7/1/71 0.542868215390402 0.71616941913856
10/1/71 0.527350884057558 0.169755477317109
1/1/72 0.530806225579969 -0.919868478332071
4/1/72 0.535074545412487 -0.326422098924436
7/1/72 0.520469441430505 0.122185374253818
10/1/72 0.516900993980572 0.581821433087005
1/1/73 0.529287926533139 0.97269037340303
4/1/73 0.539419136667759 1.21757108333483
7/1/73 0.538922828484776 1.50930117659073
10/1/73 0.555104217041137 1.26698595639722
1/1/74 0.547297078127523 1.28627026927438
4/1/74 0.561412939643303 1.45227747898266
7/1/74 0.569645151792721 1.48888032364161
10/1/74 0.57946495082083 1.28314693432915
1/1/75 0.570805822379461 0.785603721190819
4/1/75 0.557348041432675 0.646293325523596
7/1/75 0.555640135256156 1.0430168472849
10/1/75 0.561680738990753 0.737799959813256
1/1/76 0.563065993034591 0.297029244179602
4/1/76 0.551113054007618 0.417110409345876
7/1/76 0.542817142575093 0.399140254533122
10/1/76 0.532224454465459 -0.169555040265632
1/1/77 0.526347462289539 -0.109928391463832
4/1/77 0.533152429608678 0.0351564572083988
7/1/77 0.5401145331285 0.481481996819683
10/1/77 0.541279321277903 0.804033275999306
1/1/78 0.541026395622952 0.950023313840795
4/1/78 0.578809900798438 0.963320787205769
7/1/78 0.586640530106454 1.12961507405356
10/1/78 0.602269241617474 1.35448786655862
1/1/79 0.607438552006582 1.51532912429865
4/1/79 0.609082976654752 1.49433239120201
7/1/79 0.614012416218941 1.53060501149968
10/1/79 0.621566340658245 1.79239664073808
1/1/80 0.628025024452155 1.93885754271451
4/1/80 0.614467024294946 1.21555010053457
7/1/80 0.605935476998878 1.33448242651867
10/1/80 0.630550564243991 1.9212649504662
1/1/81 0.658731579018734 1.95637127571974
4/1/81 0.643292088996936 2.0045283130291
7/1/81 0.654966094404529 1.9601019041877
10/1/81 0.636304184015635 1.4600846529272
1/1/82 0.610950796590302 1.67579107058718
4/1/82 0.607211612667036 1.61815915783996
7/1/82 0.601356523661584 0.865918210837211
10/1/82 0.591143130772444 0.8056609310677
1/1/83 0.558570332552321 0.985625072118027
4/1/83 0.562487923251576 0.96925020356598
7/1/83 0.57661276304478 1.10738699829311
10/1/83 0.586347965608116 0.968715082122584
1/1/84 0.595281264402892 1.07387756785247
4/1/84 0.599768927789908 1.18958848289767
7/1/84 0.604496103834408 1.20516416208126
10/1/84 0.597220747870022 0.826278001188281
1/1/85 0.588915127402494 0.797260439121662
4/1/85 0.586654606298314 0.549362806513879
7/1/85 0.586851125989485 0.541978154535485
10/1/85 0.58542436123593 0.537005543559041
1/1/86 0.584798838710965 0.359960458233064
4/1/86 0.567240696347463 0.119754473819863
7/1/86 0.55653169029542 -0.0741320103293689
10/1/86 0.54525775092241 -0.0361136257999744
1/1/87 0.543827514984821 0.196137225862088
4/1/87 0.55307610295567 0.263016735173638
7/1/87 0.563107117274033 0.424755347365613
10/1/87 0.576396372607992 0.141936206748772
1/1/88 0.572435066218695 0.018982486799438
4/1/88 0.576023095395525 0.418517225971987
7/1/88 0.584290321447602 0.74352038171176
10/1/88 0.596706819516895 0.937099380726628
1/1/89 0.61214437920948 1.11775324357325
4/1/89 0.623416453285155 0.938367310928139
7/1/89 0.619053473700724 0.784532216980728
10/1/89 0.608781430874058 0.752469811673402
1/1/90 0.616394065855394 0.886270293925199
4/1/90 0.622268110466994 0.87398836399133
7/1/90 0.620616034186185 0.782583563353926
10/1/90 0.612199795776102 0.582240078335001
1/1/91 0.605382632017153 0.219531261693141
4/1/91 0.608687014268613 0.113477592453015
7/1/91 0.617042686857333 0.151908844682846
10/1/91 0.62370046687997 -0.278011022126107
1/1/92 0.631264565620361 -0.240272538772594
4/1/92 0.647973446527662 -0.21807308550026
7/1/92 0.661346723836929 -0.546117167244177
10/1/92 0.67108067231207 -0.27992298017427
1/1/93 0.681552362215748 -0.276334106009441
4/1/93 0.68919122005575 -0.132737458701963
7/1/93 0.695363700408447 -0.00360424595093055
10/1/93 0.707895199210516 0.114211437428964
1/1/94 0.719657147561574 0.274060057027008
4/1/94 0.735652288790233 0.677601020846234
7/1/94 0.746329266955235 0.839573307908059
10/1/94 0.763380493419114 1.06500633227839
1/1/95 0.771290816882019 1.12883078453175
4/1/95 0.769917220813769 1.03325406306592
7/1/95 0.765763742263857 0.954710984306465
10/1/95 0.768110136884301 0.909707519667157
1/1/96 0.76783780684829 0.815480272634748
4/1/96 0.77709194262361 0.875555813645098
7/1/96 0.779728172213939 0.883274146935296
10/1/96 0.783754970283393 0.817857681155662
1/1/97 0.785040623978512 0.865104939273314
4/1/97 0.791575081660263 0.825550404754836
7/1/97 0.792070600635609 0.834924137413832
10/1/97 0.787781514302601 0.83627659898851
1/1/98 0.780978422450642 0.847714670296078
4/1/98 0.774350794196966 0.815597575855946
7/1/98 0.774458866644719 0.74031813835945
10/1/98 0.768350633470435 0.485305838429563
1/1/99 0.764255392596025 0.669775947524908
4/1/99 0.761549118881166 0.710336573408623
7/1/99 0.763015183074606 0.769976878732235
10/1/99 0.771481961265541 0.879746723241856
1/1/00 0.766165598454976 1.02372979511009
4/1/00 0.773927573041163 1.03599254781078
7/1/00 0.76996040666267 1.08710019441503
10/1/00 0.765956108048368 1.07068403986032
1/1/01 0.743389509054396 0.666770522506306
4/1/01 0.730983652924026 0.224070982758826
7/1/01 0.709187822941242 0.103655989967929
10/1/01 0.692191270708888 -0.761336912261814
1/1/02 0.687419154384827 -0.521674742152712
4/1/02 0.688901375725893 -0.465545263286057
7/1/02 0.679645577464684 -0.52380067422231
10/1/02 0.664958810196987 -0.939109877841839
1/1/03 0.660215031185279 -0.641045115375949
4/1/03 0.652810638385217 -1.01299188722661
7/1/03 0.654833621762141 -1.00443363389328
10/1/03 0.672033032527059 -1.05717141389328
1/1/04 0.678613821715401 -1.04237026055995
4/1/04 0.673450033060547 -0.735537779106751
7/1/04 0.677476846777496 -0.209302611021654
10/1/04 0.679553335684542 0.190008939396723
1/1/05 0.693621252165498 0.451276681743376
4/1/05 0.699142898696065 0.543366480075566
7/1/05 0.703101447853184 0.725352479622004
10/1/05 0.702361637428157 0.863793241646889
1/1/06 0.709075034017804 1.01959297120437
4/1/06 0.709815154582736 1.04843390872773
7/1/06 0.704061874331213 1.051874955013
10/1/06 0.697672616785025 1.00963623888955
1/1/07 0.695033826904048 1.02965674769176
4/1/07 0.691761517967187 0.904142420689464
7/1/07 0.687355573024232 0.659561673547538
10/1/07 0.682856373209301 0.0800272860371039
1/1/08 0.663201449682062 -1.05064291660323
4/1/08 0.656326094765437 -0.910869946560461
7/1/08 0.646720924239559 -1.0595633476573
10/1/08 0.593059943271132 -1.67314718055995
1/1/09 0.550660101546765 -1.67314718055995
4/1/09 0.537174763840389 -1.67314718055995
7/1/09 0.537565256358347 -1.67314718055995
10/1/09 0.542308313787927 -1.67314718055995
1/1/10 0.55065821765701 -1.67314718055995
4/1/10 0.555130007498781 -1.67314718055995
7/1/10 0.55676716701341 -1.67314718055995
10/1/10 0.554387559529776 -1.67314718055995
1/1/11 0.543299217085186 -1.67314718055995
4/1/11 0.539956340322195 -1.67314718055995
7/1/11 0.504433732560304 -1.67314718055995
10/1/11 0.499635512059476 -1.67314718055995
1/1/12 0.497997018619341 -1.67314718055995
4/1/12 0.492627848182858 -1.67314718055995
7/1/12 0.482590800499574 -1.67314718055995
10/1/12 0.463823940667672 -1.67314718055995
1/1/13 0.457850853094533 -1.67314718055995

Figure 13 Data: M2 Velocity and Opportunity Cost (Taylog25) 1960:Q1 to 2013:Q1

quarter logv2 taylog25
1/1/60 0.598430078577075 0.974490359559277
4/1/60 0.589076613660054 0.504633987524299
7/1/60 0.577476489400487 0.00183384172452031
10/1/60 0.55398828583221 -0.0774369169728643
1/1/61 0.545852350118795 -0.056930750997552
4/1/61 0.548358979258882 -0.160458053599455
7/1/61 0.550827079518814 -0.249763779704906
10/1/61 0.55669620064094 -0.156973266998067
1/1/62 0.559204929479758 -0.195086842264998
4/1/62 0.550718635910455 -0.372073609306522
7/1/62 0.546735960123334 -0.246898706985686
10/1/62 0.532752401119482 -0.299158954059279
1/1/63 0.526175373915734 -0.179092295074375
4/1/63 0.519255476176902 -0.192011848374992
7/1/63 0.519666165882925 0.113304279088101
10/1/63 0.515618581965785 0.281830261442463
1/1/64 0.523718063442081 0.307182778344401
4/1/64 0.520957370174511 0.235521309155027
7/1/64 0.516160220178997 0.2393247569095
10/1/64 0.503919795211784 0.366412263909086
1/1/65 0.513523899972299 0.472155339475071
4/1/65 0.515063186238923 0.429154395152774
7/1/65 0.519919590847129 0.409820036405005
10/1/65 0.52833516126849 0.566717767627778
1/1/66 0.540075148639222 0.783409612325275
4/1/66 0.54043025342371 0.74990491634975
7/1/66 0.551290695823645 0.943628788079211
10/1/66 0.55823288645522 1.02068747121278
1/1/67 0.55546516389311 0.705700871342239
4/1/67 0.537699797213735 0.0741322957423773
7/1/67 0.529024133096072 0.556528511346228
10/1/67 0.527094763349322 0.799520299936125
1/1/68 0.541199791836193 0.935878721416749
4/1/68 0.5520545292781 1.10285734374809
7/1/68 0.549883081092351 0.975042769234154
10/1/68 0.545411321306802 1.11799425890171
1/1/69 0.554289949340414 1.28931313477647
4/1/69 0.561389642058242 1.30959658762831
7/1/69 0.575326822032878 1.52090170454807
10/1/69 0.575096814158171 1.59977973768712
1/1/70 0.583631017889032 1.5247345767931
4/1/70 0.592555848032696 1.36978976867722
7/1/70 0.587224928434693 1.26082597258793
10/1/70 0.563358981600488 0.882084166831329
1/1/71 0.573379586652018 -0.31462401658892
4/1/71 0.554250348480268 0.220610342836896
7/1/71 0.542868215390402 0.71616941913856
10/1/71 0.527350884057558 0.169755477317109
1/1/72 0.530806225579969 -1.0637208824992
4/1/72 0.535074545412487 -0.326422098924436
7/1/72 0.520469441430505 0.122185374253818
10/1/72 0.516900993980572 0.581821433087005
1/1/73 0.529287926533139 0.97269037340303
4/1/73 0.539419136667759 1.21757108333483
7/1/73 0.538922828484776 1.50930117659073
10/1/73 0.555104217041137 1.26698595639722
1/1/74 0.547297078127523 1.28627026927438
4/1/74 0.561412939643303 1.45227747898266
7/1/74 0.569645151792721 1.48888032364161
10/1/74 0.57946495082083 1.28314693432915
1/1/75 0.570805822379461 0.785603721190819
4/1/75 0.557348041432675 0.646293325523596
7/1/75 0.555640135256156 1.0430168472849
10/1/75 0.561680738990753 0.737799959813256
1/1/76 0.563065993034591 0.297029244179602
4/1/76 0.551113054007618 0.417110409345876
7/1/76 0.542817142575093 0.399140254533122
10/1/76 0.532224454465459 -0.169555040265632
1/1/77 0.526347462289539 -0.109928391463832
4/1/77 0.533152429608678 0.0351564572083988
7/1/77 0.5401145331285 0.481481996819683
10/1/77 0.541279321277903 0.804033275999306
1/1/78 0.541026395622952 0.950023313840795
4/1/78 0.578809900798438 0.963320787205769
7/1/78 0.586640530106454 1.12961507405356
10/1/78 0.602269241617474 1.35448786655862
1/1/79 0.607438552006582 1.51532912429865
4/1/79 0.609082976654752 1.49433239120201
7/1/79 0.614012416218941 1.53060501149968
10/1/79 0.621566340658245 1.79239664073808
1/1/80 0.628025024452155 1.93885754271451
4/1/80 0.614467024294946 1.21555010053457
7/1/80 0.605935476998878 1.33448242651867
10/1/80 0.630550564243991 1.9212649504662
1/1/81 0.658731579018734 1.95637127571974
4/1/81 0.643292088996936 2.0045283130291
7/1/81 0.654966094404529 1.9601019041877
10/1/81 0.636304184015635 1.4600846529272
1/1/82 0.610950796590302 1.67579107058718
4/1/82 0.607211612667036 1.61815915783996
7/1/82 0.601356523661584 0.865918210837211
10/1/82 0.591143130772444 0.8056609310677
1/1/83 0.558570332552321 0.985625072118027
4/1/83 0.562487923251576 0.96925020356598
7/1/83 0.57661276304478 1.10738699829311
10/1/83 0.586347965608116 0.968715082122584
1/1/84 0.595281264402892 1.07387756785247
4/1/84 0.599768927789908 1.18958848289767
7/1/84 0.604496103834408 1.20516416208126
10/1/84 0.597220747870022 0.826278001188281
1/1/85 0.588915127402494 0.797260439121662
4/1/85 0.586654606298314 0.549362806513879
7/1/85 0.586851125989485 0.541978154535485
10/1/85 0.58542436123593 0.537005543559041
1/1/86 0.584798838710965 0.359960458233064
4/1/86 0.567240696347463 0.119754473819863
7/1/86 0.55653169029542 -0.0741320103293689
10/1/86 0.54525775092241 -0.0361136257999744
1/1/87 0.543827514984821 0.196137225862088
4/1/87 0.55307610295567 0.263016735173638
7/1/87 0.563107117274033 0.424755347365613
10/1/87 0.576396372607992 0.141936206748772
1/1/88 0.572435066218695 0.018982486799438
4/1/88 0.576023095395525 0.418517225971987
7/1/88 0.584290321447602 0.74352038171176
10/1/88 0.596706819516895 0.937099380726628
1/1/89 0.61214437920948 1.11775324357325
4/1/89 0.623416453285155 0.938367310928139
7/1/89 0.619053473700724 0.784532216980728
10/1/89 0.608781430874058 0.752469811673402
1/1/90 0.616394065855394 0.886270293925199
4/1/90 0.622268110466994 0.87398836399133
7/1/90 0.620616034186185 0.782583563353926
10/1/90 0.612199795776102 0.582240078335001
1/1/91 0.605382632017153 0.219531261693141
4/1/91 0.608687014268613 0.113477592453015
7/1/91 0.617042686857333 0.151908844682846
10/1/91 0.62370046687997 -0.278011022126107
1/1/92 0.631264565620361 -0.240272538772594
4/1/92 0.647973446527662 -0.21807308550026
7/1/92 0.661346723836929 -0.546117167244177
10/1/92 0.67108067231207 -0.27992298017427
1/1/93 0.681552362215748 -0.276334106009441
4/1/93 0.68919122005575 -0.132737458701963
7/1/93 0.695363700408447 -0.00360424595093055
10/1/93 0.707895199210516 0.114211437428964
1/1/94 0.719657147561574 0.274060057027008
4/1/94 0.735652288790233 0.677601020846234
7/1/94 0.746329266955235 0.839573307908059
10/1/94 0.763380493419114 1.06500633227839
1/1/95 0.771290816882019 1.12883078453175
4/1/95 0.769917220813769 1.03325406306592
7/1/95 0.765763742263857 0.954710984306465
10/1/95 0.768110136884301 0.909707519667157
1/1/96 0.76783780684829 0.815480272634748
4/1/96 0.77709194262361 0.875555813645098
7/1/96 0.779728172213939 0.883274146935296
10/1/96 0.783754970283393 0.817857681155662
1/1/97 0.785040623978512 0.865104939273314
4/1/97 0.791575081660263 0.825550404754836
7/1/97 0.792070600635609 0.834924137413832
10/1/97 0.787781514302601 0.83627659898851
1/1/98 0.780978422450642 0.847714670296078
4/1/98 0.774350794196966 0.815597575855946
7/1/98 0.774458866644719 0.74031813835945
10/1/98 0.768350633470435 0.485305838429563
1/1/99 0.764255392596025 0.669775947524908
4/1/99 0.761549118881166 0.710336573408623
7/1/99 0.763015183074606 0.769976878732235
10/1/99 0.771481961265541 0.879746723241856
1/1/00 0.766165598454976 1.02372979511009
4/1/00 0.773927573041163 1.03599254781078
7/1/00 0.76996040666267 1.08710019441503
10/1/00 0.765956108048368 1.07068403986032
1/1/01 0.743389509054396 0.666770522506306
4/1/01 0.730983652924026 0.224070982758826
7/1/01 0.709187822941242 0.103655989967929
10/1/01 0.692191270708888 -0.770646206165282
1/1/02 0.687419154384827 -0.521738297877764
4/1/02 0.688901375725893 -0.465545263286057
7/1/02 0.679645577464684 -0.52380067422231
10/1/02 0.664958810196987 -1.01123869502297
1/1/03 0.660215031185279 -0.649717159266546
4/1/03 0.652810638385217 -1.09853768454536
7/1/03 0.654833621762141 -1.06968434670047
10/1/03 0.672033032527059 -1.14632506546712
1/1/04 0.678613821715401 -1.13106533927809
4/1/04 0.673450033060547 -0.755254486887957
7/1/04 0.677476846777496 -0.209302611021654
10/1/04 0.679553335684542 0.190008939396723
1/1/05 0.693621252165498 0.451276681743376
4/1/05 0.699142898696065 0.543366480075566
7/1/05 0.703101447853184 0.725352479622004
10/1/05 0.702361637428157 0.863793241646889
1/1/06 0.709075034017804 1.01959297120437
4/1/06 0.709815154582736 1.04843390872773
7/1/06 0.704061874331213 1.051874955013
10/1/06 0.697672616785025 1.00963623888955
1/1/07 0.695033826904048 1.02965674769176
4/1/07 0.691761517967187 0.904142420689464
7/1/07 0.687355573024232 0.659561673547538
10/1/07 0.682856373209301 0.0800272860371039
1/1/08 0.663201449682062 -1.71540649851001
4/1/08 0.656326094765437 -1.13292284008044
7/1/08 0.646720924239559 -1.43010776552054
10/1/08 0.593059943271132 -5.60860344111989
1/1/09 0.550660101546765 -3.93629508111989
4/1/09 0.537174763840389 -3.65261262778656
7/1/09 0.537565256358347 -3.44896118778656
10/1/09 0.542308313787927 -3.71036601445322
1/1/10 0.55065821765701 -3.31456860111989
4/1/10 0.555130007498781 -3.02428165445322
7/1/10 0.55676716701341 -2.96880685445322
10/1/10 0.554387559529776 -2.94884980111989
1/1/11 0.543299217085186 -2.87543853445322
4/1/11 0.539956340322195 -3.16032372111989
7/1/11 0.504433732560304 -3.20832418778656
10/1/11 0.499635512059476 -3.12398469445322
1/1/12 0.497997018619341 -2.65802286778656
4/1/12 0.492627848182858 -2.56974338778656
7/1/12 0.482590800499574 -2.53642680111989
10/1/12 0.463823940667672 -2.57389872111989
1/1/13 0.457850853094533 -2.52918013445322

Figure 14 Data: M2 Velocity and Opportunity Cost (Taylog25) with M2 Adjusted for Shifts Related to FDIC Policy Change 1960:Q1 to 2013:Q1

Quarter Adjusted logv2 Taylog25
1/1/60 0.598430078577075 0.974490359559277
4/1/60 0.589076613660054 0.504633987524299
7/1/60 0.577476489400487 0.00183384172452031
10/1/60 0.55398828583221 -0.0774369169728643
1/1/61 0.545852350118795 -0.056930750997552
4/1/61 0.548358979258882 -0.160458053599455
7/1/61 0.550827079518814 -0.249763779704906
10/1/61 0.55669620064094 -0.156973266998067
1/1/62 0.559204929479758 -0.195086842264998
4/1/62 0.550718635910455 -0.372073609306522
7/1/62 0.546735960123334 -0.246898706985686
10/1/62 0.532752401119482 -0.299158954059279
1/1/63 0.526175373915734 -0.179092295074375
4/1/63 0.519255476176902 -0.192011848374992
7/1/63 0.519666165882925 0.113304279088101
10/1/63 0.515618581965785 0.281830261442463
1/1/64 0.523718063442081 0.307182778344401
4/1/64 0.520957370174511 0.235521309155027
7/1/64 0.516160220178997 0.2393247569095
10/1/64 0.503919795211784 0.366412263909086
1/1/65 0.513523899972299 0.472155339475071
4/1/65 0.515063186238923 0.429154395152774
7/1/65 0.519919590847129 0.409820036405005
10/1/65 0.52833516126849 0.566717767627778
1/1/66 0.540075148639222 0.783409612325275
4/1/66 0.54043025342371 0.74990491634975
7/1/66 0.551290695823645 0.943628788079211
10/1/66 0.55823288645522 1.02068747121278
1/1/67 0.55546516389311 0.705700871342239
4/1/67 0.537699797213735 0.0741322957423773
7/1/67 0.529024133096072 0.556528511346228
10/1/67 0.527094763349322 0.799520299936125
1/1/68 0.541199791836193 0.935878721416749
4/1/68 0.5520545292781 1.10285734374809
7/1/68 0.549883081092351 0.975042769234154
10/1/68 0.545411321306802 1.11799425890171
1/1/69 0.554289949340414 1.28931313477647
4/1/69 0.561389642058242 1.30959658762831
7/1/69 0.575326822032878 1.52090170454807
10/1/69 0.575096814158171 1.59977973768712
1/1/70 0.583631017889032 1.5247345767931
4/1/70 0.592555848032696 1.36978976867722
7/1/70 0.587224928434693 1.26082597258793
10/1/70 0.563358981600488 0.882084166831329
1/1/71 0.573379586652018 -0.31462401658892
4/1/71 0.554250348480268 0.220610342836896
7/1/71 0.542868215390402 0.71616941913856
10/1/71 0.527350884057558 0.169755477317109
1/1/72 0.530806225579969 -1.0637208824992
4/1/72 0.535074545412487 -0.326422098924436
7/1/72 0.520469441430505 0.122185374253818
10/1/72 0.516900993980572 0.581821433087005
1/1/73 0.529287926533139 0.97269037340303
4/1/73 0.539419136667759 1.21757108333483
7/1/73 0.538922828484776 1.50930117659073
10/1/73 0.555104217041137 1.26698595639722
1/1/74 0.547297078127523 1.28627026927438
4/1/74 0.561412939643303 1.45227747898266
7/1/74 0.569645151792721 1.48888032364161
10/1/74 0.57946495082083 1.28314693432915
1/1/75 0.570805822379461 0.785603721190819
4/1/75 0.557348041432675 0.646293325523596
7/1/75 0.555640135256156 1.0430168472849
10/1/75 0.561680738990753 0.737799959813256
1/1/76 0.563065993034591 0.297029244179602
4/1/76 0.551113054007618 0.417110409345876
7/1/76 0.542817142575093 0.399140254533122
10/1/76 0.532224454465459 -0.169555040265632
1/1/77 0.526347462289539 -0.109928391463832
4/1/77 0.533152429608678 0.0351564572083988
7/1/77 0.5401145331285 0.481481996819683
10/1/77 0.541279321277903 0.804033275999306
1/1/78 0.541026395622952 0.950023313840795
4/1/78 0.578809900798438 0.963320787205769
7/1/78 0.586640530106454 1.12961507405356
10/1/78 0.602269241617474 1.35448786655862
1/1/79 0.607438552006582 1.51532912429865
4/1/79 0.609082976654752 1.49433239120201
7/1/79 0.614012416218941 1.53060501149968
10/1/79 0.621566340658245 1.79239664073808
1/1/80 0.628025024452155 1.93885754271451
4/1/80 0.614467024294946 1.21555010053457
7/1/80 0.605935476998878 1.33448242651867
10/1/80 0.630550564243991 1.9212649504662
1/1/81 0.658731579018734 1.95637127571974
4/1/81 0.643292088996936 2.0045283130291
7/1/81 0.654966094404529 1.9601019041877
10/1/81 0.636304184015635 1.4600846529272
1/1/82 0.610950796590302 1.67579107058718
4/1/82 0.607211612667036 1.61815915783996
7/1/82 0.601356523661584 0.865918210837211
10/1/82 0.591143130772444 0.8056609310677
1/1/83 0.558570332552321 0.985625072118027
4/1/83 0.562487923251576 0.96925020356598
7/1/83 0.57661276304478 1.10738699829311
10/1/83 0.586347965608116 0.968715082122584
1/1/84 0.595281264402892 1.07387756785247
4/1/84 0.599768927789908 1.18958848289767
7/1/84 0.604496103834408 1.20516416208126
10/1/84 0.597220747870022 0.826278001188281
1/1/85 0.588915127402494 0.797260439121662
4/1/85 0.586654606298314 0.549362806513879
7/1/85 0.586851125989485 0.541978154535485
10/1/85 0.58542436123593 0.537005543559041
1/1/86 0.584798838710965 0.359960458233064
4/1/86 0.567240696347463 0.119754473819863
7/1/86 0.55653169029542 -0.0741320103293689
10/1/86 0.54525775092241 -0.0361136257999744
1/1/87 0.543827514984821 0.196137225862088
4/1/87 0.55307610295567 0.263016735173638
7/1/87 0.563107117274033 0.424755347365613
10/1/87 0.576396372607992 0.141936206748772
1/1/88 0.572435066218695 0.018982486799438
4/1/88 0.576023095395525 0.418517225971987
7/1/88 0.584290321447602 0.74352038171176
10/1/88 0.596706819516895 0.937099380726628
1/1/89 0.61214437920948 1.11775324357325
4/1/89 0.623416453285155 0.938367310928139
7/1/89 0.619053473700724 0.784532216980728
10/1/89 0.608781430874058 0.752469811673402
1/1/90 0.616394065855394 0.886270293925199
4/1/90 0.622268110466994 0.87398836399133
7/1/90 0.620616034186185 0.782583563353926
10/1/90 0.612199795776102 0.582240078335001
1/1/91 0.605382632017153 0.219531261693141
4/1/91 0.608687014268613 0.113477592453015
7/1/91 0.617042686857333 0.151908844682846
10/1/91 0.62370046687997 -0.278011022126107
1/1/92 0.631264565620361 -0.240272538772594
4/1/92 0.647973446527662 -0.21807308550026
7/1/92 0.661346723836929 -0.546117167244177
10/1/92 0.67108067231207 -0.27992298017427
1/1/93 0.681552362215748 -0.276334106009441
4/1/93 0.68919122005575 -0.132737458701963
7/1/93 0.695363700408447 -0.00360424595093055
10/1/93 0.707895199210516 0.114211437428964
1/1/94 0.719657147561574 0.274060057027008
4/1/94 0.735652288790233 0.677601020846234
7/1/94 0.746329266955235 0.839573307908059
10/1/94 0.763380493419114 1.06500633227839
1/1/95 0.771290816882019 1.12883078453175
4/1/95 0.769917220813769 1.03325406306592
7/1/95 0.765763742263857 0.954710984306465
10/1/95 0.768110136884301 0.909707519667157
1/1/96 0.76783780684829 0.815480272634748
4/1/96 0.77709194262361 0.875555813645098
7/1/96 0.779728172213939 0.883274146935296
10/1/96 0.783754970283393 0.817857681155662
1/1/97 0.785040623978512 0.865104939273314
4/1/97 0.791575081660263 0.825550404754836
7/1/97 0.792070600635609 0.834924137413832
10/1/97 0.787781514302601 0.83627659898851
1/1/98 0.780978422450642 0.847714670296078
4/1/98 0.774350794196966 0.815597575855946
7/1/98 0.774458866644719 0.74031813835945
10/1/98 0.768350633470435 0.485305838429563
1/1/99 0.764255392596025 0.669775947524908
4/1/99 0.761549118881166 0.710336573408623
7/1/99 0.763015183074606 0.769976878732235
10/1/99 0.771481961265541 0.879746723241856
1/1/00 0.766165598454976 1.02372979511009
4/1/00 0.773927573041163 1.03599254781078
7/1/00 0.76996040666267 1.08710019441503
10/1/00 0.765956108048368 1.07068403986032
1/1/01 0.743389509054396 0.666770522506306
4/1/01 0.730983652924026 0.224070982758826
7/1/01 0.709187822941242 0.103655989967929
10/1/01 0.692191270708888 -0.770646206165282
1/1/02 0.687419154384827 -0.521738297877764
4/1/02 0.688901375725893 -0.465545263286057
7/1/02 0.679645577464684 -0.52380067422231
10/1/02 0.664958810196987 -1.01123869502297
1/1/03 0.660215031185279 -0.649717159266546
4/1/03 0.652810638385217 -1.09853768454536
7/1/03 0.654833621762141 -1.06968434670047
10/1/03 0.672033032527059 -1.14632506546712
1/1/04 0.678613821715401 -1.13106533927809
4/1/04 0.673450033060547 -0.755254486887957
7/1/04 0.677476846777496 -0.209302611021654
10/1/04 0.679553335684542 0.190008939396723
1/1/05 0.693621252165498 0.451276681743376
4/1/05 0.699142898696065 0.543366480075566
7/1/05 0.703101447853184 0.725352479622004
10/1/05 0.702361637428157 0.863793241646889
1/1/06 0.709075034017804 1.01959297120437
4/1/06 0.709815154582736 1.04843390872773
7/1/06 0.704061874331213 1.051874955013
10/1/06 0.697672616785025 1.00963623888955
1/1/07 0.695033826904048 1.02965674769176
4/1/07 0.691761517967187 0.904142420689464
7/1/07 0.687355573024232 0.659561673547538
10/1/07 0.682856373209301 0.0800272860371039
1/1/08 0.663201449682062 -1.71540649851001
4/1/08 0.656326094765437 -1.13292284008044
7/1/08 0.646720924239559 -1.43010776552054
10/1/08 0.593059943271132 -5.60860344111989
1/1/09 0.550660101546765 -3.93629508111989
4/1/09 0.537174763840389 -3.65261262778656
7/1/09 0.537565256358347 -3.44896118778656
10/1/09 0.542308313787927 -3.71036601445322
1/1/10 0.55065821765701 -3.31456860111989
4/1/10 0.555130007498781 -3.02428165445322
7/1/10 0.55676716701341 -2.96880685445322
10/1/10 0.554387559529776 -2.94884980111989
1/1/11 0.543299217085186 -2.87543853445322
4/1/11 0.539956340322195 -3.16032372111989
7/1/11 0.536774003353278 -3.20832418778656
10/1/11 0.531390852668566 -3.12398469445322
1/1/12 0.529252106354446 -2.65802286778656
4/1/12 0.523480748781156 -2.56974338778656
7/1/12 0.512760045599152 -2.53642680111989
10/1/12 0.493306323529646 -2.57389872111989
1/1/13 0.486948228525035 -2.52918013445322

Figure 15 Data: M2 Velocity and Opportunity Cost (Taylog50) with M2 Adjusted for Shifts Related to FDIC Policy Change 1960:Q1 to 2013:Q1

Quarter Adjusted logv2 Taylog50
1/1/60 0.598430078577075 0.974490359559277
4/1/60 0.589076613660054 0.504633987524299
7/1/60 0.577476489400487 0.00183384172452031
10/1/60 0.55398828583221 -0.0774369169728643
1/1/61 0.545852350118795 -0.056930750997552
4/1/61 0.548358979258882 -0.160458053599455
7/1/61 0.550827079518814 -0.249763779704906
10/1/61 0.55669620064094 -0.156973266998067
1/1/62 0.559204929479758 -0.195086842264998
4/1/62 0.550718635910455 -0.372073609306522
7/1/62 0.546735960123334 -0.246898706985686
10/1/62 0.532752401119482 -0.299158954059279
1/1/63 0.526175373915734 -0.179092295074375
4/1/63 0.519255476176902 -0.192011848374992
7/1/63 0.519666165882925 0.113304279088101
10/1/63 0.515618581965785 0.281830261442463
1/1/64 0.523718063442081 0.307182778344401
4/1/64 0.520957370174511 0.235521309155027
7/1/64 0.516160220178997 0.2393247569095
10/1/64 0.503919795211784 0.366412263909086
1/1/65 0.513523899972299 0.472155339475071
4/1/65 0.515063186238923 0.429154395152774
7/1/65 0.519919590847129 0.409820036405005
10/1/65 0.52833516126849 0.566717767627778
1/1/66 0.540075148639222 0.783409612325275
4/1/66 0.54043025342371 0.74990491634975
7/1/66 0.551290695823645 0.943628788079211
10/1/66 0.55823288645522 1.02068747121278
1/1/67 0.55546516389311 0.705700871342239
4/1/67 0.537699797213735 0.0741322957423773
7/1/67 0.529024133096072 0.556528511346228
10/1/67 0.527094763349322 0.799520299936125
1/1/68 0.541199791836193 0.935878721416749
4/1/68 0.5520545292781 1.10285734374809
7/1/68 0.549883081092351 0.975042769234154
10/1/68 0.545411321306802 1.11799425890171
1/1/69 0.554289949340414 1.28931313477647
4/1/69 0.561389642058242 1.30959658762831
7/1/69 0.575326822032878 1.52090170454807
10/1/69 0.575096814158171 1.59977973768712
1/1/70 0.583631017889032 1.5247345767931
4/1/70 0.592555848032696 1.36978976867722
7/1/70 0.587224928434693 1.26082597258793
10/1/70 0.563358981600488 0.882084166831329
1/1/71 0.573379586652018 -0.294667697561831
4/1/71 0.554250348480268 0.220610342836896
7/1/71 0.542868215390402 0.71616941913856
10/1/71 0.527350884057558 0.169755477317109
1/1/72 0.530806225579969 -0.919868478332071
4/1/72 0.535074545412487 -0.326422098924436
7/1/72 0.520469441430505 0.122185374253818
10/1/72 0.516900993980572 0.581821433087005
1/1/73 0.529287926533139 0.97269037340303
4/1/73 0.539419136667759 1.21757108333483
7/1/73 0.538922828484776 1.50930117659073
10/1/73 0.555104217041137 1.26698595639722
1/1/74 0.547297078127523 1.28627026927438
4/1/74 0.561412939643303 1.45227747898266
7/1/74 0.569645151792721 1.48888032364161
10/1/74 0.57946495082083 1.28314693432915
1/1/75 0.570805822379461 0.785603721190819
4/1/75 0.557348041432675 0.646293325523596
7/1/75 0.555640135256156 1.0430168472849
10/1/75 0.561680738990753 0.737799959813256
1/1/76 0.563065993034591 0.297029244179602
4/1/76 0.551113054007618 0.417110409345876
7/1/76 0.542817142575093 0.399140254533122
10/1/76 0.532224454465459 -0.169555040265632
1/1/77 0.526347462289539 -0.109928391463832
4/1/77 0.533152429608678 0.0351564572083988
7/1/77 0.5401145331285 0.481481996819683
10/1/77 0.541279321277903 0.804033275999306
1/1/78 0.541026395622952 0.950023313840795
4/1/78 0.578809900798438 0.963320787205769
7/1/78 0.586640530106454 1.12961507405356
10/1/78 0.602269241617474 1.35448786655862
1/1/79 0.607438552006582 1.51532912429865
4/1/79 0.609082976654752 1.49433239120201
7/1/79 0.614012416218941 1.53060501149968
10/1/79 0.621566340658245 1.79239664073808
1/1/80 0.628025024452155 1.93885754271451
4/1/80 0.614467024294946 1.21555010053457
7/1/80 0.605935476998878 1.33448242651867
10/1/80 0.630550564243991 1.9212649504662
1/1/81 0.658731579018734 1.95637127571974
4/1/81 0.643292088996936 2.0045283130291
7/1/81 0.654966094404529 1.9601019041877
10/1/81 0.636304184015635 1.4600846529272
1/1/82 0.610950796590302 1.67579107058718
4/1/82 0.607211612667036 1.61815915783996
7/1/82 0.601356523661584 0.865918210837211
10/1/82 0.591143130772444 0.8056609310677
1/1/83 0.558570332552321 0.985625072118027
4/1/83 0.562487923251576 0.96925020356598
7/1/83 0.57661276304478 1.10738699829311
10/1/83 0.586347965608116 0.968715082122584
1/1/84 0.595281264402892 1.07387756785247
4/1/84 0.599768927789908 1.18958848289767
7/1/84 0.604496103834408 1.20516416208126
10/1/84 0.597220747870022 0.826278001188281
1/1/85 0.588915127402494 0.797260439121662
4/1/85 0.586654606298314 0.549362806513879
7/1/85 0.586851125989485 0.541978154535485
10/1/85 0.58542436123593 0.537005543559041
1/1/86 0.584798838710965 0.359960458233064
4/1/86 0.567240696347463 0.119754473819863
7/1/86 0.55653169029542 -0.0741320103293689
10/1/86 0.54525775092241 -0.0361136257999744
1/1/87 0.543827514984821 0.196137225862088
4/1/87 0.55307610295567 0.263016735173638
7/1/87 0.563107117274033 0.424755347365613
10/1/87 0.576396372607992 0.141936206748772
1/1/88 0.572435066218695 0.018982486799438
4/1/88 0.576023095395525 0.418517225971987
7/1/88 0.584290321447602 0.74352038171176
10/1/88 0.596706819516895 0.937099380726628
1/1/89 0.61214437920948 1.11775324357325
4/1/89 0.623416453285155 0.938367310928139
7/1/89 0.619053473700724 0.784532216980728
10/1/89 0.608781430874058 0.752469811673402
1/1/90 0.616394065855394 0.886270293925199
4/1/90 0.622268110466994 0.87398836399133
7/1/90 0.620616034186185 0.782583563353926
10/1/90 0.612199795776102 0.582240078335001
1/1/91 0.605382632017153 0.219531261693141
4/1/91 0.608687014268613 0.113477592453015
7/1/91 0.617042686857333 0.151908844682846
10/1/91 0.62370046687997 -0.278011022126107
1/1/92 0.631264565620361 -0.240272538772594
4/1/92 0.647973446527662 -0.21807308550026
7/1/92 0.661346723836929 -0.546117167244177
10/1/92 0.67108067231207 -0.27992298017427
1/1/93 0.681552362215748 -0.276334106009441
4/1/93 0.68919122005575 -0.132737458701963
7/1/93 0.695363700408447 -0.00360424595093055
10/1/93 0.707895199210516 0.114211437428964
1/1/94 0.719657147561574 0.274060057027008
4/1/94 0.735652288790233 0.677601020846234
7/1/94 0.746329266955235 0.839573307908059
10/1/94 0.763380493419114 1.06500633227839
1/1/95 0.771290816882019 1.12883078453175
4/1/95 0.769917220813769 1.03325406306592
7/1/95 0.765763742263857 0.954710984306465
10/1/95 0.768110136884301 0.909707519667157
1/1/96 0.76783780684829 0.815480272634748
4/1/96 0.77709194262361 0.875555813645098
7/1/96 0.779728172213939 0.883274146935296
10/1/96 0.783754970283393 0.817857681155662
1/1/97 0.785040623978512 0.865104939273314
4/1/97 0.791575081660263 0.825550404754836
7/1/97 0.792070600635609 0.834924137413832
10/1/97 0.787781514302601 0.83627659898851
1/1/98 0.780978422450642 0.847714670296078
4/1/98 0.774350794196966 0.815597575855946
7/1/98 0.774458866644719 0.74031813835945
10/1/98 0.768350633470435 0.485305838429563
1/1/99 0.764255392596025 0.669775947524908
4/1/99 0.761549118881166 0.710336573408623
7/1/99 0.763015183074606 0.769976878732235
10/1/99 0.771481961265541 0.879746723241856
1/1/00 0.766165598454976 1.02372979511009
4/1/00 0.773927573041163 1.03599254781078
7/1/00 0.76996040666267 1.08710019441503
10/1/00 0.765956108048368 1.07068403986032
1/1/01 0.743389509054396 0.666770522506306
4/1/01 0.730983652924026 0.224070982758826
7/1/01 0.709187822941242 0.103655989967929
10/1/01 0.692191270708888 -0.761336912261814
1/1/02 0.687419154384827 -0.521674742152712
4/1/02 0.688901375725893 -0.465545263286057
7/1/02 0.679645577464684 -0.52380067422231
10/1/02 0.664958810196987 -0.939109877841839
1/1/03 0.660215031185279 -0.641045115375949
4/1/03 0.652810638385217 -1.01299188722661
7/1/03 0.654833621762141 -1.00443363389328
10/1/03 0.672033032527059 -1.05717141389328
1/1/04 0.678613821715401 -1.04237026055995
4/1/04 0.673450033060547 -0.735537779106751
7/1/04 0.677476846777496 -0.209302611021654
10/1/04 0.679553335684542 0.190008939396723
1/1/05 0.693621252165498 0.451276681743376
4/1/05 0.699142898696065 0.543366480075566
7/1/05 0.703101447853184 0.725352479622004
10/1/05 0.702361637428157 0.863793241646889
1/1/06 0.709075034017804 1.01959297120437
4/1/06 0.709815154582736 1.04843390872773
7/1/06 0.704061874331213 1.051874955013
10/1/06 0.697672616785025 1.00963623888955
1/1/07 0.695033826904048 1.02965674769176
4/1/07 0.691761517967187 0.904142420689464
7/1/07 0.687355573024232 0.659561673547538
10/1/07 0.682856373209301 0.0800272860371039
1/1/08 0.663201449682062 -1.26324248993656
4/1/08 0.656326094765437 -0.910869946560461
7/1/08 0.646720924239559 -1.13093949432397
10/1/08 0.593059943271132 -3.30430172055995
1/1/09 0.550660101546765 -2.46814754055995
4/1/09 0.537174763840389 -2.32630631389328
7/1/09 0.537565256358347 -2.22448059389328
10/1/09 0.542308313787927 -2.35518300722661
1/1/10 0.55065821765701 -2.15728430055995
4/1/10 0.555130007498781 -2.01214082722661
7/1/10 0.55676716701341 -1.98440342722661
10/1/10 0.554387559529776 -1.97442490055995
1/1/11 0.543299217085186 -1.93771926722661
4/1/11 0.539956340322195 -2.08016186055995
7/1/11 0.536774003353278 -2.10416209389328
10/1/11 0.531390852668566 -2.06199234722661
1/1/12 0.529252106354446 -1.82901143389328
4/1/12 0.523480748781156 -1.78487169389328
7/1/12 0.512760045599152 -1.76821340055995
10/1/12 0.493306323529646 -1.78694936055995
1/1/13 0.486948228525035 -1.76459006722661

Figure 16 Data: M2 Velocity and Opportunity Cost (Taylog00) with M2 Adjusted for Shifts Related to FDIC Policy Change 1960:Q1 to 2013:Q1

Quarter Adjusted logv2 Taylog00
1/1/60 0.598430078577075 0.974490359559277
4/1/60 0.589076613660054 0.504633987524299
7/1/60 0.577476489400487 0.00183384172452031
10/1/60 0.55398828583221 -0.0774369169728643
1/1/61 0.545852350118795 -0.056930750997552
4/1/61 0.548358979258882 -0.160458053599455
7/1/61 0.550827079518814 -0.249763779704906
10/1/61 0.55669620064094 -0.156973266998067
1/1/62 0.559204929479758 -0.195086842264998
4/1/62 0.550718635910455 -0.372073609306522
7/1/62 0.546735960123334 -0.246898706985686
10/1/62 0.532752401119482 -0.299158954059279
1/1/63 0.526175373915734 -0.179092295074375
4/1/63 0.519255476176902 -0.192011848374992
7/1/63 0.519666165882925 0.113304279088101
10/1/63 0.515618581965785 0.281830261442463
1/1/64 0.523718063442081 0.307182778344401
4/1/64 0.520957370174511 0.235521309155027
7/1/64 0.516160220178997 0.2393247569095
10/1/64 0.503919795211784 0.366412263909086
1/1/65 0.513523899972299 0.472155339475071
4/1/65 0.515063186238923 0.429154395152774
7/1/65 0.519919590847129 0.409820036405005
10/1/65 0.52833516126849 0.566717767627778
1/1/66 0.540075148639222 0.783409612325275
4/1/66 0.54043025342371 0.74990491634975
7/1/66 0.551290695823645 0.943628788079211
10/1/66 0.55823288645522 1.02068747121278
1/1/67 0.55546516389311 0.705700871342239
4/1/67 0.537699797213735 0.0741322957423773
7/1/67 0.529024133096072 0.556528511346228
10/1/67 0.527094763349322 0.799520299936125
1/1/68 0.541199791836193 0.935878721416749
4/1/68 0.5520545292781 1.10285734374809
7/1/68 0.549883081092351 0.975042769234154
10/1/68 0.545411321306802 1.11799425890171
1/1/69 0.554289949340414 1.28931313477647
4/1/69 0.561389642058242 1.30959658762831
7/1/69 0.575326822032878 1.52090170454807
10/1/69 0.575096814158171 1.59977973768712
1/1/70 0.583631017889032 1.5247345767931
4/1/70 0.592555848032696 1.36978976867722
7/1/70 0.587224928434693 1.26082597258793
10/1/70 0.563358981600488 0.882084166831329
1/1/71 0.573379586652018 -0.294667697561831
4/1/71 0.554250348480268 0.220610342836896
7/1/71 0.542868215390402 0.71616941913856
10/1/71 0.527350884057558 0.169755477317109
1/1/72 0.530806225579969 -0.919868478332071
4/1/72 0.535074545412487 -0.326422098924436
7/1/72 0.520469441430505 0.122185374253818
10/1/72 0.516900993980572 0.581821433087005
1/1/73 0.529287926533139 0.97269037340303
4/1/73 0.539419136667759 1.21757108333483
7/1/73 0.538922828484776 1.50930117659073
10/1/73 0.555104217041137 1.26698595639722
1/1/74 0.547297078127523 1.28627026927438
4/1/74 0.561412939643303 1.45227747898266
7/1/74 0.569645151792721 1.48888032364161
10/1/74 0.57946495082083 1.28314693432915
1/1/75 0.570805822379461 0.785603721190819
4/1/75 0.557348041432675 0.646293325523596
7/1/75 0.555640135256156 1.0430168472849
10/1/75 0.561680738990753 0.737799959813256
1/1/76 0.563065993034591 0.297029244179602
4/1/76 0.551113054007618 0.417110409345876
7/1/76 0.542817142575093 0.399140254533122
10/1/76 0.532224454465459 -0.169555040265632
1/1/77 0.526347462289539 -0.109928391463832
4/1/77 0.533152429608678 0.0351564572083988
7/1/77 0.5401145331285 0.481481996819683
10/1/77 0.541279321277903 0.804033275999306
1/1/78 0.541026395622952 0.950023313840795
4/1/78 0.578809900798438 0.963320787205769
7/1/78 0.586640530106454 1.12961507405356
10/1/78 0.602269241617474 1.35448786655862
1/1/79 0.607438552006582 1.51532912429865
4/1/79 0.609082976654752 1.49433239120201
7/1/79 0.614012416218941 1.53060501149968
10/1/79 0.621566340658245 1.79239664073808
1/1/80 0.628025024452155 1.93885754271451
4/1/80 0.614467024294946 1.21555010053457
7/1/80 0.605935476998878 1.33448242651867
10/1/80 0.630550564243991 1.9212649504662
1/1/81 0.658731579018734 1.95637127571974
4/1/81 0.643292088996936 2.0045283130291
7/1/81 0.654966094404529 1.9601019041877
10/1/81 0.636304184015635 1.4600846529272
1/1/82 0.610950796590302 1.67579107058718
4/1/82 0.607211612667036 1.61815915783996
7/1/82 0.601356523661584 0.865918210837211
10/1/82 0.591143130772444 0.8056609310677
1/1/83 0.558570332552321 0.985625072118027
4/1/83 0.562487923251576 0.96925020356598
7/1/83 0.57661276304478 1.10738699829311
10/1/83 0.586347965608116 0.968715082122584
1/1/84 0.595281264402892 1.07387756785247
4/1/84 0.599768927789908 1.18958848289767
7/1/84 0.604496103834408 1.20516416208126
10/1/84 0.597220747870022 0.826278001188281
1/1/85 0.588915127402494 0.797260439121662
4/1/85 0.586654606298314 0.549362806513879
7/1/85 0.586851125989485 0.541978154535485
10/1/85 0.58542436123593 0.537005543559041
1/1/86 0.584798838710965 0.359960458233064
4/1/86 0.567240696347463 0.119754473819863
7/1/86 0.55653169029542 -0.0741320103293689
10/1/86 0.54525775092241 -0.0361136257999744
1/1/87 0.543827514984821 0.196137225862088
4/1/87 0.55307610295567 0.263016735173638
7/1/87 0.563107117274033 0.424755347365613
10/1/87 0.576396372607992 0.141936206748772
1/1/88 0.572435066218695 0.018982486799438
4/1/88 0.576023095395525 0.418517225971987
7/1/88 0.584290321447602 0.74352038171176
10/1/88 0.596706819516895 0.937099380726628
1/1/89 0.61214437920948 1.11775324357325
4/1/89 0.623416453285155 0.938367310928139
7/1/89 0.619053473700724 0.784532216980728
10/1/89 0.608781430874058 0.752469811673402
1/1/90 0.616394065855394 0.886270293925199
4/1/90 0.622268110466994 0.87398836399133
7/1/90 0.620616034186185 0.782583563353926
10/1/90 0.612199795776102 0.582240078335001
1/1/91 0.605382632017153 0.219531261693141
4/1/91 0.608687014268613 0.113477592453015
7/1/91 0.617042686857333 0.151908844682846
10/1/91 0.62370046687997 -0.278011022126107
1/1/92 0.631264565620361 -0.240272538772594
4/1/92 0.647973446527662 -0.21807308550026
7/1/92 0.661346723836929 -0.546117167244177
10/1/92 0.67108067231207 -0.27992298017427
1/1/93 0.681552362215748 -0.276334106009441
4/1/93 0.68919122005575 -0.132737458701963
7/1/93 0.695363700408447 -0.00360424595093055
10/1/93 0.707895199210516 0.114211437428964
1/1/94 0.719657147561574 0.274060057027008
4/1/94 0.735652288790233 0.677601020846234
7/1/94 0.746329266955235 0.839573307908059
10/1/94 0.763380493419114 1.06500633227839
1/1/95 0.771290816882019 1.12883078453175
4/1/95 0.769917220813769 1.03325406306592
7/1/95 0.765763742263857 0.954710984306465
10/1/95 0.768110136884301 0.909707519667157
1/1/96 0.76783780684829 0.815480272634748
4/1/96 0.77709194262361 0.875555813645098
7/1/96 0.779728172213939 0.883274146935296
10/1/96 0.783754970283393 0.817857681155662
1/1/97 0.785040623978512 0.865104939273314
4/1/97 0.791575081660263 0.825550404754836
7/1/97 0.792070600635609 0.834924137413832
10/1/97 0.787781514302601 0.83627659898851
1/1/98 0.780978422450642 0.847714670296078
4/1/98 0.774350794196966 0.815597575855946
7/1/98 0.774458866644719 0.74031813835945
10/1/98 0.768350633470435 0.485305838429563
1/1/99 0.764255392596025 0.669775947524908
4/1/99 0.761549118881166 0.710336573408623
7/1/99 0.763015183074606 0.769976878732235
10/1/99 0.771481961265541 0.879746723241856
1/1/00 0.766165598454976 1.02372979511009
4/1/00 0.773927573041163 1.03599254781078
7/1/00 0.76996040666267 1.08710019441503
10/1/00 0.765956108048368 1.07068403986032
1/1/01 0.743389509054396 0.666770522506306
4/1/01 0.730983652924026 0.224070982758826
7/1/01 0.709187822941242 0.103655989967929
10/1/01 0.692191270708888 -0.761336912261814
1/1/02 0.687419154384827 -0.521674742152712
4/1/02 0.688901375725893 -0.465545263286057
7/1/02 0.679645577464684 -0.52380067422231
10/1/02 0.664958810196987 -0.939109877841839
1/1/03 0.660215031185279 -0.641045115375949
4/1/03 0.652810638385217 -1.01299188722661
7/1/03 0.654833621762141 -1.00443363389328
10/1/03 0.672033032527059 -1.05717141389328
1/1/04 0.678613821715401 -1.04237026055995
4/1/04 0.673450033060547 -0.735537779106751
7/1/04 0.677476846777496 -0.209302611021654
10/1/04 0.679553335684542 0.190008939396723
1/1/05 0.693621252165498 0.451276681743376
4/1/05 0.699142898696065 0.543366480075566
7/1/05 0.703101447853184 0.725352479622004
10/1/05 0.702361637428157 0.863793241646889
1/1/06 0.709075034017804 1.01959297120437
4/1/06 0.709815154582736 1.04843390872773
7/1/06 0.704061874331213 1.051874955013
10/1/06 0.697672616785025 1.00963623888955
1/1/07 0.695033826904048 1.02965674769176
4/1/07 0.691761517967187 0.904142420689464
7/1/07 0.687355573024232 0.659561673547538
10/1/07 0.682856373209301 0.0800272860371039
1/1/08 0.663201449682062 -1.05064291660323
4/1/08 0.656326094765437 -0.910869946560461
7/1/08 0.646720924239559 -1.0595633476573
10/1/08 0.593059943271132 -1.67314718055995
1/1/09 0.550660101546765 -1.67314718055995
4/1/09 0.537174763840389 -1.67314718055995
7/1/09 0.537565256358347 -1.67314718055995
10/1/09 0.542308313787927 -1.67314718055995
1/1/10 0.55065821765701 -1.67314718055995
4/1/10 0.555130007498781 -1.67314718055995
7/1/10 0.55676716701341 -1.67314718055995
10/1/10 0.554387559529776 -1.67314718055995
1/1/11 0.543299217085186 -1.67314718055995
4/1/11 0.539956340322195 -1.67314718055995
7/1/11 0.536774003353278 -1.67314718055995
10/1/11 0.531390852668566 -1.67314718055995
1/1/12 0.529252106354446 -1.67314718055995
4/1/12 0.523480748781156 -1.67314718055995
7/1/12 0.512760045599152 -1.67314718055995
10/1/12 0.493306323529646 -1.67314718055995
1/1/13 0.486948228525035 -1.67314718055995

Figure 17 Data: Spline Regressions From 1994:Q1 to 2011:Q1 Excluding 2008:Q4 and 2009:Q1

Quarter Ajusted logv2 Taylog25
1/1/94 0.719657147561574 0.274060057027008
4/1/94 0.735652288790233 0.677601020846234
7/1/94 0.746329266955235 0.839573307908059
10/1/94 0.763380493419114 1.06500633227839
1/1/95 0.771290816882019 1.12883078453175
4/1/95 0.769917220813769 1.03325406306592
7/1/95 0.765763742263857 0.954710984306465
10/1/95 0.768110136884301 0.909707519667157
1/1/96 0.76783780684829 0.815480272634748
4/1/96 0.77709194262361 0.875555813645098
7/1/96 0.779728172213939 0.883274146935296
10/1/96 0.783754970283393 0.817857681155662
1/1/97 0.785040623978512 0.865104939273314
4/1/97 0.791575081660263 0.825550404754836
7/1/97 0.792070600635609 0.834924137413832
10/1/97 0.787781514302601 0.83627659898851
1/1/98 0.780978422450642 0.847714670296078
4/1/98 0.774350794196966 0.815597575855946
7/1/98 0.774458866644719 0.74031813835945
10/1/98 0.768350633470435 0.485305838429563
1/1/99 0.764255392596025 0.669775947524908
4/1/99 0.761549118881166 0.710336573408623
7/1/99 0.763015183074606 0.769976878732235
10/1/99 0.771481961265541 0.879746723241856
1/1/00 0.766165598454976 1.02372979511009
4/1/00 0.773927573041163 1.03599254781078
7/1/00 0.76996040666267 1.08710019441503
10/1/00 0.765956108048368 1.07068403986032
1/1/01 0.743389509054396 0.666770522506306
4/1/01 0.730983652924026 0.224070982758826
7/1/01 0.709187822941242 0.103655989967929
10/1/01 0.692191270708888 -0.770646206165282
1/1/02 0.687419154384827 -0.521738297877764
4/1/02 0.688901375725893 -0.465545263286057
7/1/02 0.679645577464684 -0.52380067422231
10/1/02 0.664958810196987 -1.01123869502297
1/1/03 0.660215031185279 -0.649717159266546
4/1/03 0.652810638385217 -1.09853768454536
7/1/03 0.654833621762141 -1.06968434670047
10/1/03 0.672033032527059 -1.14632506546712
1/1/04 0.678613821715401 -1.13106533927809
4/1/04 0.673450033060547 -0.755254486887957
7/1/04 0.677476846777496 -0.209302611021654
10/1/04 0.679553335684542 0.190008939396723
1/1/05 0.693621252165498 0.451276681743376
4/1/05 0.699142898696065 0.543366480075566
7/1/05 0.703101447853184 0.725352479622004
10/1/05 0.702361637428157 0.863793241646889
1/1/06 0.709075034017804 1.01959297120437
4/1/06 0.709815154582736 1.04843390872773
7/1/06 0.704061874331213 1.051874955013
10/1/06 0.697672616785025 1.00963623888955
1/1/07 0.695033826904048 1.02965674769176
4/1/07 0.691761517967187 0.904142420689464
7/1/07 0.687355573024232 0.659561673547538
10/1/07 0.682856373209301 0.0800272860371039
1/1/08 0.663201449682062 -1.71540649851001
4/1/08 0.656326094765437 -1.13292284008044
7/1/08 0.646720924239559 -1.43010776552054
10/1/08 0.593059943271132 -5.60860344111989
1/1/09 0.550660101546765 -3.93629508111989
4/1/09 0.537174763840389 -3.65261262778656
7/1/09 0.537565256358347 -3.44896118778656
10/1/09 0.542308313787927 -3.71036601445322
1/1/10 0.55065821765701 -3.31456860111989
4/1/10 0.555130007498781 -3.02428165445322
7/1/10 0.55676716701341 -2.96880685445322
10/1/10 0.554387559529776 -2.94884980111989
1/1/11 0.543299217085186 -2.87543853445322

Figure 18 Data: Separate Regressions Over Three Sub-periods in 1994:Q1-2013:Q1 Excluding 2008:Q4 and 2009:Q1

Quarter Adjusted logv2 Taylog25
1/1/94 0.719657147561574 0.274060057027008
4/1/94 0.735652288790233 0.677601020846234
7/1/94 0.746329266955235 0.839573307908059
10/1/94 0.763380493419114 1.06500633227839
1/1/95 0.771290816882019 1.12883078453175
4/1/95 0.769917220813769 1.03325406306592
7/1/95 0.765763742263857 0.954710984306465
10/1/95 0.768110136884301 0.909707519667157
1/1/96 0.76783780684829 0.815480272634748
4/1/96 0.77709194262361 0.875555813645098
7/1/96 0.779728172213939 0.883274146935296
10/1/96 0.783754970283393 0.817857681155662
1/1/97 0.785040623978512 0.865104939273314
4/1/97 0.791575081660263 0.825550404754836
7/1/97 0.792070600635609 0.834924137413832
10/1/97 0.787781514302601 0.83627659898851
1/1/98 0.780978422450642 0.847714670296078
4/1/98 0.774350794196966 0.815597575855946
7/1/98 0.774458866644719 0.74031813835945
10/1/98 0.768350633470435 0.485305838429563
1/1/99 0.764255392596025 0.669775947524908
4/1/99 0.761549118881166 0.710336573408623
7/1/99 0.763015183074606 0.769976878732235
10/1/99 0.771481961265541 0.879746723241856
1/1/00 0.766165598454976 1.02372979511009
4/1/00 0.773927573041163 1.03599254781078
7/1/00 0.76996040666267 1.08710019441503
10/1/00 0.765956108048368 1.07068403986032
1/1/01 0.743389509054396 0.666770522506306
4/1/01 0.730983652924026 0.224070982758826
7/1/01 0.709187822941242 0.103655989967929
10/1/01 0.692191270708888 -0.770646206165282
1/1/02 0.687419154384827 -0.521738297877764
4/1/02 0.688901375725893 -0.465545263286057
7/1/02 0.679645577464684 -0.52380067422231
10/1/02 0.664958810196987 -1.01123869502297
1/1/03 0.660215031185279 -0.649717159266546
4/1/03 0.652810638385217 -1.09853768454536
7/1/03 0.654833621762141 -1.06968434670047
10/1/03 0.672033032527059 -1.14632506546712
1/1/04 0.678613821715401 -1.13106533927809
4/1/04 0.673450033060547 -0.755254486887957
7/1/04 0.677476846777496 -0.209302611021654
10/1/04 0.679553335684542 0.190008939396723
1/1/05 0.693621252165498 0.451276681743376
4/1/05 0.699142898696065 0.543366480075566
7/1/05 0.703101447853184 0.725352479622004
10/1/05 0.702361637428157 0.863793241646889
1/1/06 0.709075034017804 1.01959297120437
4/1/06 0.709815154582736 1.04843390872773
7/1/06 0.704061874331213 1.051874955013
10/1/06 0.697672616785025 1.00963623888955
1/1/07 0.695033826904048 1.02965674769176
4/1/07 0.691761517967187 0.904142420689464
7/1/07 0.687355573024232 0.659561673547538
10/1/07 0.682856373209301 0.0800272860371039
1/1/08 0.663201449682062 -1.71540649851001
4/1/08 0.656326094765437 -1.13292284008044
7/1/08 0.646720924239559 -1.43010776552054
10/1/08 0.593059943271132 -5.60860344111989
1/1/09 0.550660101546765 -3.93629508111989
4/1/09 0.537174763840389 -3.65261262778656
7/1/09 0.537565256358347 -3.44896118778656
10/1/09 0.542308313787927 -3.71036601445322
1/1/10 0.55065821765701 -3.31456860111989
4/1/10 0.555130007498781 -3.02428165445322
7/1/10 0.55676716701341 -2.96880685445322
10/1/10 0.554387559529776 -2.94884980111989
1/1/11 0.543299217085186 -2.87543853445322
4/1/11 0.539956340322195 -3.16032372111989
7/1/11 0.536774003353278 -3.20832418778656
10/1/11 0.531390852668566 -3.12398469445322
1/1/12 0.529252106354446 -2.65802286778656
4/1/12 0.523480748781156 -2.56974338778656
7/1/12 0.512760045599152 -2.53642680111989
10/1/12 0.493306323529646 -2.57389872111989
1/1/13 0.486948228525035 -2.52918013445322
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