Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test 2014: Supervisory Stress Test Methodology and Results - Accessible Version

Figure 1. Historical and stressed tier 1 common ratio

Quarter Percent
Actual, Q1 2009 5.5
Actual, Q1 2010 8.5
Actual, Q1 2011 10.0
Actual, Q1 2012 10.9
Actual, Q1 2013 10.9
Actual, Q3 2013 11.4
Stressed, Q4 2015 7.8

Note: Aggregate capital ratios for 29 of the participating BHCs.

Source: FR Y-9C and supervisory estimates under the severely adverse scenario. The aggregate tier 1 common ratio does not include Santander Holdings USA, which did not file the FR Y-9C until 2012. Santander's exclusion decreased the aggregate ratio about 1 to 2 basis points.

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Figure 2. Real GDP growth rate, Q1 2009-Q4 2016

Quarter Real GDP growth Severely adverse scenario Adverse scenario
Q1 2009 -5.4 ND ND
Q2 2009 -0.4 ND ND
Q3 2009 1.3 ND ND
Q4 2009 3.9 ND ND
Q1 2010 1.6 ND ND
Q2 2010 3.9 ND ND
Q3 2010 2.8 ND ND
Q4 2010 2.8 ND ND
Q1 2011 -1.3 ND ND
Q2 2011 3.2 ND ND
Q3 2011 1.4 ND ND
Q4 2011 4.9 ND ND
Q1 2012 3.7 ND ND
Q2 2012 1.2 ND ND
Q3 2012 2.8 ND ND
Q4 2012 0.1 ND ND
Q1 2013 1.1 ND ND
Q2 2013 2.5 ND ND
Q3 2013 2.0 2.0 2.0
Q4 2013 ND -3.9 -1.0
Q1 2014 ND -6.1 -2.1
Q2 2014 ND -3.2 -0.6
Q3 2014 ND -4.0 -1.0
Q4 2014 ND -1.5 0.3
Q1 2015 ND 1.2 1.7
Q2 2015 ND 1.1 1.7
Q3 2015 ND 3.0 2.6
Q4 2015 ND 3.0 2.6
Q1 2016 ND 3.9 3.0
Q2 2016 ND 3.9 3.0
Q3 2016 ND 3.9 3.0
Q4 2016 ND 3.9 3.0

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve assumptions in the supervisory scenarios.

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Figure 3. Unemployment rate, Q1 2009-Q4 2016

Quarter Unemployment rate Severely adverse scenario Adverse scenario
Q1 2009 8.3 ND ND
Q2 2009 9.3 ND ND
Q3 2009 9.6 ND ND
Q4 2009 9.9 ND ND
Q1 2010 9.8 ND ND
Q2 2010 9.6 ND ND
Q3 2010 9.5 ND ND
Q4 2010 9.5 ND ND
Q1 2011 9.0 ND ND
Q2 2011 9.0 ND ND
Q3 2011 9.0 ND ND
Q4 2011 8.7 ND ND
Q1 2012 8.3 ND ND
Q2 2012 8.2 ND ND
Q3 2012 8.0 ND ND
Q4 2012 7.8 ND ND
Q1 2013 7.7 ND ND
Q2 2013 7.6 ND ND
Q3 2013 7.3 7.3 7.3
Q4 2013 ND 8.1 7.7
Q1 2014 ND 9.2 8.3
Q2 2014 ND 9.9 8.6
Q3 2014 ND 10.7 9.0
Q4 2014 ND 11.1 9.2
Q1 2015 ND 11.2 9.2
Q2 2015 ND 11.3 9.3
Q3 2015 ND 11.2 9.2
Q4 2015 ND 11.1 9.2
Q1 2016 ND 10.9 9.1
Q2 2016 ND 10.8 9.0
Q3 2016 ND 10.6 8.9
Q4 2016 ND 10.4 8.8

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve assumptions in the supervisory scenarios.

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Figure 4. Dow Jones Stock Market Index, end of quarter, Q1 2009-Q4 2016

Quarter Dow Jones Stock Market Index Severely adverse scenario Adverse scenario
Q1 2009 8044.2 ND ND
Q2 2009 9342.8 ND ND
Q3 2009 10812.8 ND ND
Q4 2009 11385.1 ND ND
Q1 2010 12032.5 ND ND
Q2 2010 10645.8 ND ND
Q3 2010 11814.0 ND ND
Q4 2010 13131.5 ND ND
Q1 2011 13908.5 ND ND
Q2 2011 13843.5 ND ND
Q3 2011 11676.5 ND ND
Q4 2011 13019.3 ND ND
Q1 2012 14627.5 ND ND
Q2 2012 14100.2 ND ND
Q3 2012 14894.7 ND ND
Q4 2012 14834.9 ND ND
Q1 2013 16396.2 ND ND
Q2 2013 16771.3 ND ND
Q3 2013 17718.3 17718.3 17718.3
Q4 2013 ND 13016.5 15605.5
Q1 2014 ND 11402.6 14216.2
Q2 2014 ND 9769.1 12815.7
Q3 2014 ND 8943.3 11402.7
Q4 2014 ND 9616.9 12099.4
Q1 2015 ND 10314.4 12786.4
Q2 2015 ND 11061.2 13475.9
Q3 2015 ND 11987.2 14249.3
Q4 2015 ND 12775.4 14916.7
Q1 2016 ND 13434.8 15490.6
Q2 2016 ND 13927.1 15952.9
Q3 2016 ND 14769.2 16601.7
Q4 2016 ND 15436.8 17139.0

Source: Dow Jones and Federal Reserve assumptions in the supervisory scenarios.

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Figure 5. National House Price Index, Q1 2009-Q4 2016

Quarter National House Price Index Severely adverse scenario Adverse scenario
Q1 2009 144.3 ND ND
Q2 2009 142.3 ND ND
Q3 2009 143.8 ND ND
Q4 2009 144.6 ND ND
Q1 2010 145.3 ND ND
Q2 2010 145.3 ND ND
Q3 2010 142.3 ND ND
Q4 2010 140.2 ND ND
Q1 2011 138.9 ND ND
Q2 2011 137.5 ND ND
Q3 2011 137.2 ND ND
Q4 2011 136.3 ND ND
Q1 2012 138.5 ND ND
Q2 2012 141.4 ND ND
Q3 2012 143.9 ND ND
Q4 2012 146.8 ND ND
Q1 2013 152.6 ND ND
Q2 2013 157.8 ND ND
Q3 2013 158.8 158.8 158.8
Q4 2013 ND 156.4 157.6
Q1 2014 ND 151.3 155.0
Q2 2014 ND 145.4 152.0
Q3 2014 ND 139.1 148.7
Q4 2014 ND 133.2 145.5
Q1 2015 ND 127.7 142.5
Q2 2015 ND 123.0 139.9
Q3 2015 ND 120.3 138.4
Q4 2015 ND 118.5 137.3
Q1 2016 ND 118.0 137.1
Q2 2016 ND 118.5 137.3
Q3 2016 ND 119.5 137.9
Q4 2016 ND 120.8 138.7

Source: CoreLogic (seasonally adjusted by Federal Reserve) and Federal Reserve assumptions in the supervisory scenarios.

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Figure 6. Real GDP growth in four country/country block areas in the severely adverse scenario, Q1 2009-16

Quarter Euro Area Japan U.K. Developing Asia
Q1 2009 -10.9 -15.0 -9.5 3.4
Q2 2009 -1.1 6.7 -1.7 15.9
Q3 2009 1.6 0.4 0.0 12.8
Q4 2009 1.8 7.5 1.7 8.4
Q1 2010 1.6 5.9 2.1 9.2
Q2 2010 3.6 3.7 4.1 9.3
Q3 2010 1.7 6.0 1.6 8.7
Q4 2010 2.1 -1.3 -0.8 8.3
Q1 2011 3.1 -7.6 1.9 9.4
Q2 2011 0.3 -3.4 0.4 6.8
Q3 2011 0.3 10.7 2.4 7.2
Q4 2011 -0.8 1.4 -0.4 5.9
Q1 2012 -0.4 5.0 0.0 5.8
Q2 2012 -1.2 -1.2 -1.8 6.5
Q3 2012 -0.5 -3.5 2.5 6.6
Q4 2012 -2.0 1.1 -1.2 6.8
Q1 2013 -0.9 4.1 1.5 5.5
Q2 2013 1.1 3.8 2.7 6.3
Q3 2013 0.6 2.6 3.2 6.5
Severely adverse scenario
Q4 2013 -8.3 -8.0 -3.2 -2.8
Q1 2014 -7.0 -10.8 -3.6 1.6
Q2 2014 -4.5 -9.1 -2.6 4.9
Q3 2014 -2.5 -7.1 -1.6 6.4
Q4 2014 -0.9 -5.1 -0.6 6.8
Q1 2015 0.4 -3.2 0.4 7.0
Q2 2015 1.3 -1.6 1.1 7.0
Q3 2015 1.9 -0.4 1.7 7.0
Q4 2015 2.2 0.5 2.2 7.0
Q1 2016 2.3 1.2 2.5 7.1
Q2 2016 2.3 1.7 2.7 7.2
Q3 2016 2.2 2.0 2.8 7.3
Q4 2016 2.2 2.2 2.9 7.4

Note: 3Q 2013 data based on Federal Reserve calculations using available data as of October 25, 2013.

Source: Federal Reserve calculations based on official sector sources and Federal Reserve assumptions in the severely adverse scenario.

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Figure 7. Real GDP growth in four country/country block areas in the adverse scenario, Q1 2009-16

Quarter Euro Area Japan U.K. Developing Asia
Q1 2009 -10.9 -15.0 -9.5 3.4
Q2 2009 -1.1 6.7 -1.7 15.9
Q3 2009 1.6 0.4 0.0 12.8
Q4 2009 1.8 7.5 1.7 8.4
Q1 2010 1.6 5.9 2.1 9.2
Q2 2010 3.6 3.7 4.1 9.3
Q3 2010 1.7 6.0 1.6 8.7
Q4 2010 2.1 -1.3 -0.8 8.3
Q1 2011 3.1 -7.6 1.9 9.4
Q2 2011 0.3 -3.4 0.4 6.8
Q3 2011 0.3 10.7 2.4 7.2
Q4 2011 -0.8 1.4 -0.4 5.9
Q1 2012 -0.4 5.0 0.0 5.8
Q2 2012 -1.2 -1.2 -1.8 6.5
Q3 2012 -0.5 -3.5 2.5 6.6
Q4 2012 -2.0 1.1 -1.2 6.8
Q1 2013 -0.9 4.1 1.5 5.5
Q2 2013 1.1 3.8 2.7 6.3
Q3 2013 0.6 2.6 3.2 6.5
Adverse scenario
Q4 2013 -4.2 -3.3 -0.8 1.4
Q1 2014 -3.4 -5.0 -1.0 3.8
Q2 2014 -2.0 -4.3 -0.5 5.6
Q3 2014 -0.8 -3.3 0.1 6.4
Q4 2014 0.1 -2.2 0.6 6.7
Q1 2015 0.9 -1.2 1.1 6.8
Q2 2015 1.4 -0.3 1.5 6.8
Q3 2015 1.8 0.4 1.9 6.8
Q4 2015 1.9 0.9 2.1 6.8
Q1 2016 2.0 1.3 2.3 6.9
Q2 2016 2.0 1.5 2.4 6.9
Q3 2016 1.9 1.7 2.5 7.0
Q4 2016 1.9 1.8 2.5 7.1

Note: 3Q 2013 data based on Federal Reserve calculations using available data as of October 25, 2013.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve assumptions in the adverse scenario.

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Figure 8. Projecting net income and regulatory capital

A flowchart with five steps, leading from one to the next.

  • Net interest income plus noninterest income, minus noninterest expense, equals pre-provision net revenue (PPNR). (Note: PPNR includes income from mortgage servicing rights and losses from operational-risk events, mortgage put-back losses, and OREO costs.)
  • PPNR plus other revenue, minus provisions, minus AFS/HTM securities losses, minus HFS/FVO loan losses, minus trading and counterparty losses, equals pre-tax net income. (Note: Change in the allowance for loan and lease losses, plus net charge-offs, equals provisions.)
  • Pre-tax net income minus taxes, plus extraordinary items net of taxes, equals after-tax net income.
  • After-tax net income minus net distributions to common and preferred shareholders and other net reductions to shareholder's equity from DFAST assumptions, equals change in equity capital.
  • Change in equity capital minus deductions from regulatory capital, plus other additions to regulatory capital (including accumulated other comprehensive income, when applicable), equals change in regulatory capital.

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Box 1. Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income in Regulatory Capital: Figure A. Aggregate OCI over the planning horizon in the severely adverse and adverse scenarios

Billions of dollars
Severely adverse Adverse
Aggregate OCI -24 -103

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Box 2. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet and RWA Projections: Figure A. Total assets and loans, by scenario

Total Assets - Severely Adverse Total Assets - Adverse Total loans - Severely Adverse Total loans - Adverse
Q3 2013 13.50 13.50 5.42 5.42
Q4 2013 13.65 13.65 5.44 5.44
Q1 2014 13.74 13.78 5.49 5.49
Q2 2014 13.76 13.88 5.49 5.50
Q3 2014 13.80 13.98 5.49 5.52
Q4 2014 13.83 14.10 5.51 5.55
Q1 2015 13.87 14.20 5.49 5.55
Q2 2015 13.94 14.32 5.48 5.56
Q3 2015 14.00 14.44 5.47 5.57
Q4 2015 14.09 14.58 5.47 5.58

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Figure 9. Minimum tier 1 common ratio in the severely adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 6.29
American Express 12.11
Bank of America 5.92
Bank of NY-Mellon 13.05
BB&T 8.36
BBVA Compass 8.53
BMO 7.61
Capital One 7.76
Citigroup 7.16
Comerica 8.59
Discover 13.23
Fifth Third 8.43
Goldman Sachs 6.93
HSBC 6.60
Huntington 7.37
JPMorgan Chase 6.29
KeyCorp 9.16
M&T 6.16
Morgan Stanley 6.08
Northern Trust 11.68
PNC 8.99
RBS Citizens 10.66
Regions 8.90
Santander 7.27
State Street 13.28
SunTrust 8.78
U.S. Bancorp 8.16
UnionBanCal 8.15
Wells Fargo 8.23
Zions 3.57

Median = 8.2%

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Figure 10. Change from Q3 2013 to minimum tier 1 common ratio in the severely adverse scenario

Percent
Bank Holding Company Change from Q3 2013 to minimum Minimum ratio
Ally 1.6 6.3
American Express 0.7 12.1
Bank of America 5.2 5.9
Bank of NY-Mellon 1.1 13.1
BB&T 1.0 8.4
BBVA Compass 3.1 8.5
BMO 3.2 7.6
Capital One 5.0 7.8
Citigroup 5.5 7.2
Comerica 2.1 8.6
Discover 1.5 13.2
Fifth Third 1.5 8.4
Goldman Sachs 7.2 6.9
HSBC 8.1 6.6
Huntington 3.5 7.4
JPMorgan Chase 4.2 6.3
KeyCorp 2.0 9.2
M&T 2.9 6.2
Morgan Stanley 6.5 6.1
Northern Trust 1.4 11.7
PNC 1.3 9.0
RBS Citizens 3.3 10.7
Regions 2.1 8.9
Santander 6.4 7.3
State Street 2.2 13.3
SunTrust 1.2 8.8
U.S. Bancorp 1.1 8.2
UnionBanCal 3.0 8.1
Wells Fargo 2.4 8.2
Zions 6.9 3.6

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Figure 11. Projected losses in the severely adverse scenario

Billions of dollars
First-lien mortgages, domestic 63
Trading and counterparty losses 98
Credit cards 93
Commercial and industrial loans 62
Securities losses (AFS/HTM) 7
Junior liens and HELOCs, domestic 43
Commercial real estate, domestic 49
Other consumer loans 33
Other loans 23
Other losses 29

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Figure 12. Total loan loss rates in the severely adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 5.00
American Express 10.67
Bank of America 5.78
Bank of NY-Mellon 1.64
BB&T 4.46
BBVA Compass 5.22
BMO 6.08
Capital One 11.83
Citigroup 8.41
Comerica 4.65
Discover 15.17
Fifth Third 5.49
Goldman Sachs 3.10
HSBC 10.78
Huntington 4.87
JPMorgan Chase 7.34
KeyCorp 5.13
M&T 5.31
Morgan Stanley 3.01
Northern Trust 8.21
PNC 5.24
RBS Citizens 5.77
Regions 6.87
Santander 8.66
State Street 3.07
SunTrust 4.58
U.S. Bancorp 6.97
UnionBanCal 4.98
Wells Fargo 6.83
Zions 6.61

Median = 5.6%

Estimates are for nine quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.

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Figure 13. PPNR rates in the severely adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 2.31
American Express 13.62
Bank of America 1.44
Bank of NY-Mellon 2.18
BB&T 3.76
BBVA Compass 1.60
BMO 1.30
Capital One 7.09
Citigroup 1.67
Comerica 1.70
Discover 15.47
Fifth Third 3.68
Goldman Sachs 0.53
HSBC -0.33
Huntington 2.55
JPMorgan Chase 1.94
KeyCorp 2.74
M&T 3.91
Morgan Stanley 0.04
Northern Trust 2.72
PNC 3.41
RBS Citizens 2.65
Regions 3.62
Santander 5.41
State Street 2.17
SunTrust 3.28
U.S. Bancorp 5.56
UnionBanCal 0.70
Wells Fargo 3.33
Zions 0.37

Median = 2.6%

Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average assets.

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Figure 14. Pre-tax net income rates in the severely adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally -1.77
American Express 3.91
Bank of America -2.25
Bank of NY-Mellon 1.56
BB&T 0.75
BBVA Compass -2.47
BMO -1.83
Capital One -2.00
Citigroup -2.35
Comerica -1.75
Discover 0.73
Fifth Third 0.10
Goldman Sachs -2.47
HSBC -3.37
Huntington -1.72
JPMorgan Chase -1.49
KeyCorp -1.04
M&T -0.93
Morgan Stanley -2.03
Northern Trust -0.37
PNC -0.35
RBS Citizens -2.14
Regions -1.15
Santander -2.37
State Street 0.94
SunTrust -0.69
U.S. Bancorp 0.82
UnionBanCal -3.45
Wells Fargo -1.34
Zions -5.11

Median = -1.6%

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Figure 15. Minimum tier 1 common ratio in the adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 7.63
American Express 12.53
Bank of America 8.69
Bank of NY-Mellon 13.57
BB&T 9.10
BBVA Compass 11.08
BMO 9.88
Capital One 11.67
Citigroup 9.75
Comerica 10.26
Discover 13.91
Fifth Third 9.24
Goldman Sachs 9.62
HSBC 11.08
Huntington 9.52
JPMorgan Chase 8.72
KeyCorp 10.46
M&T 8.73
Morgan Stanley 8.86
Northern Trust 12.64
PNC 10.22
RBS Citizens 13.04
Regions 10.72
Santander 8.45
State Street 13.91
SunTrust 9.74
U.S. Bancorp 9.09
UnionBanCal 11.36
Wells Fargo 9.98
Zions 7.28

Median = 9.9%

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Figure 16. Change from Q3 2013 to minimum tier 1 common ratio in the adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Change from Q3 2013 to minimum Minimum ratio
Ally 0.3 7.6
American Express 0.3 12.5
Bank of America 2.4 8.7
Bank of NY-Mellon 0.6 13.6
BB&T 0.3 9.1
BBVA Compass 0.5 11.1
BMO 1.0 9.9
Capital One 1.1 11.7
Citigroup 2.9 9.7
Comerica 0.5 10.3
Discover 0.8 13.9
Fifth Third 0.6 9.2
Goldman Sachs 4.5 9.6
HSBC 3.7 11.1
Huntington 1.3 9.5
JPMorgan Chase 1.8 8.7
KeyCorp 0.7 10.5
M&T 0.3 8.7
Morgan Stanley 3.8 8.9
Northern Trust 0.5 12.6
PNC 0.1 10.2
RBS Citizens 0.9 13.0
Regions 0.3 10.7
Santander 5.2 8.5
State Street 1.6 13.9
SunTrust 0.2 9.7
U.S. Bancorp 0.2 9.1
UnionBanCal* -0.3 11.4
Wells Fargo 0.6 10.0
Zions 3.2 7.3

* Hash pattern indicates that the minimum tier 1 common ratio over the planning horizon is larger than the Q3 2013 tier 1 common ratio.  Return to table

Note: Estimates are for the nine quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.

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Figure 17. Projected losses in the adverse scenario

Billions of dollars
First-lien mortgages, domestic 39
Trading and counterparty losses 57
Credit cards 77
Commercial and industrial loans 43
Securities losses (AFS/HTM) 7
Junior liens and HELOCs, domestic 32
Commercial real estate, domestic 32
Other consumer loans 27
Other loans 16
Other losses 25

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Figure 18. Total loan loss rates in the adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 3.75
American Express 8.21
Bank of America 4.18
Bank of NY-Mellon 1.13
BB&T 3.14
BBVA Compass 3.59
BMO 4.41
Capital One 9.27
Citigroup 6.52
Comerica 2.99
Discover 12.83
Fifth Third 4.02
Goldman Sachs 2.13
HSBC 8.22
Huntington 3.59
JPMorgan Chase 5.05
KeyCorp 3.72
M&T 3.88
Morgan Stanley 2.12
Northern Trust 5.67
PNC 3.56
RBS Citizens 4.34
Regions 4.91
Santander 6.55
State Street 2.08
SunTrust 3.26
U.S. Bancorp 5.02
UnionBanCal 2.94
Wells Fargo 4.47
Zions 4.34

Median = 4.1%

Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.

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Figure 19. PPNR rates in the adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 3.36
American Express 14.45
Bank of America 2.53
Bank of NY-Mellon 2.91
BB&T 5.09
BBVA Compass 2.74
BMO 2.05
Capital One 8.34
Citigroup 2.32
Comerica 2.82
Discover 16.36
Fifth Third 4.90
Goldman Sachs 0.50
HSBC 0.92
Huntington 3.76
JPMorgan Chase 2.65
KeyCorp 4.03
M&T 5.16
Morgan Stanley 0.18
Northern Trust 3.32
PNC 4.74
RBS Citizens 3.98
Regions 4.95
Santander 6.41
State Street 3.33
SunTrust 4.77
U.S. Bancorp 7.05
UnionBanCal 2.05
Wells Fargo 4.62
Zions 1.29

Median = 3.6%

Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average assets.

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Figure 20. Pre-tax net income rates in the adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 0.48
American Express 7.09
Bank of America 0.24
Bank of NY-Mellon 2.57
BB&T 3.19
BBVA Compass 0.31
BMO 0.03
Capital One 1.47
Citigroup -0.49
Comerica 0.98
Discover 4.07
Fifth Third 2.69
Goldman Sachs -1.63
HSBC -1.00
Huntington 0.62
JPMorgan Chase 0.61
KeyCorp 1.50
M&T 1.89
Morgan Stanley -1.23
Northern Trust 1.29
PNC 2.54
RBS Citizens 0.65
Regions 1.95
Santander 0.77
State Street 2.59
SunTrust 2.36
U.S. Bancorp 3.97
UnionBanCal -0.28
Wells Fargo 1.91
Zions -1.95

Median = 1.1%

Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average assets.

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Figure D.1. First-lien mortgages, domestic loss rates in the severely adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 6.01
American Express 0.00
Bank of America 4.91
Bank of NY-Mellon 2.32
BB&T 2.39
BBVA Compass 2.20
BMO 6.73
Capital One 3.87
Citigroup 7.25
Comerica 4.34
Discover 0.00
Fifth Third 5.21
Goldman Sachs 7.46
HSBC 16.69
Huntington 3.99
JPMorgan Chase 6.60
KeyCorp 4.05
M&T 3.86
Morgan Stanley 0.97
Northern Trust 4.71
PNC 2.32
RBS Citizens 3.35
Regions 6.40
Santander 4.35
State Street 0.00
SunTrust 4.79
U.S. Bancorp 2.46
UnionBanCal 3.22
Wells Fargo 6.74
Zions 0.84

Median = 4.0%

Estimates are for nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.

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Figure D.2. Junior liens and HELOCs, domestic loss rates in the severely adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 9.91
American Express 0.00
Bank of America 10.28
Bank of NY-Mellon 11.71
BB&T 4.78
BBVA Compass 9.09
BMO 7.25
Capital One 10.00
Citigroup 13.47
Comerica 5.80
Discover 14.88
Fifth Third 7.40
Goldman Sachs 10.87
HSBC 18.33
Huntington 6.04
JPMorgan Chase 11.69
KeyCorp 5.25
M&T 7.08
Morgan Stanley 11.07
Northern Trust 17.48
PNC 4.87
RBS Citizens 9.88
Regions 7.99
Santander 4.81
State Street 0.00
SunTrust 7.71
U.S. Bancorp 6.30
UnionBanCal 3.24
Wells Fargo 9.78
Zions 5.03

Median = 7.9%

Estimates are for nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.

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Figure D.3. Commercial and industrial loss rates in the severely adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 4.13
American Express 11.39
Bank of America 3.76
Bank of NY-Mellon 5.12
BB&T 4.36
BBVA Compass 4.18
BMO 5.15
Capital One 7.61
Citigroup 4.94
Comerica 2.96
Discover 13.23
Fifth Third 4.86
Goldman Sachs 9.47
HSBC 2.81
Huntington 4.79
JPMorgan Chase 7.01
KeyCorp 3.82
M&T 3.95
Morgan Stanley 8.91
Northern Trust 8.05
PNC 5.73
RBS Citizens 3.87
Regions 4.86
Santander 3.94
State Street 6.87
SunTrust 4.69
U.S. Bancorp 8.22
UnionBanCal 3.88
Wells Fargo 6.04
Zions 6.67

Median = 4.9%

Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances. Losses are calculated based on the exposure at default, which includes both outstanding balances and any additional drawdown of the credit line that occurs prior to default, while loss rates are calculated as a percent of outstanding balances.

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Figure D.4. Commercial real estate, domestic loss rates in the severely adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 4.83
American Express 0.00
Bank of America 8.94
Bank of NY-Mellon 8.58
BB&T 6.24
BBVA Compass 10.27
BMO 9.73
Capital One 6.39
Citigroup 10.53
Comerica 7.55
Discover 35.37
Fifth Third 9.42
Goldman Sachs 10.03
HSBC 12.61
Huntington 6.93
JPMorgan Chase 6.75
KeyCorp 8.78
M&T 6.87
Morgan Stanley 9.40
Northern Trust 11.30
PNC 10.14
RBS Citizens 8.43
Regions 11.15
Santander 9.51
State Street 26.19
SunTrust 5.58
U.S. Bancorp 11.23
UnionBanCal 10.13
Wells Fargo 7.89
Zions 8.35

Median = 9.2%

Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.

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Figure D.5. Credit card loss rates in the severely adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 0.00
American Express 10.62
Bank of America 13.41
Bank of NY-Mellon 0.00
BB&T 15.23
BBVA Compass 18.94
BMO 15.22
Capital One 20.50
Citigroup 17.01
Comerica 0.00
Discover 16.41
Fifth Third 18.94
Goldman Sachs 0.00
HSBC 16.45
Huntington 8.15
JPMorgan Chase 12.74
KeyCorp 16.83
M&T 16.46
Morgan Stanley 0.00
Northern Trust 0.00
PNC 14.35
RBS Citizens 15.97
Regions 16.94
Santander 16.37
State Street 0.00
SunTrust 13.63
U.S. Bancorp 16.19
UnionBanCal 0.00
Wells Fargo 16.43
Zions 16.24

Median = 15.2%

Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.

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Figure D.6. Other consumer loss rates in the severely adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 5.20
American Express 0.00
Bank of America 3.47
Bank of NY-Mellon 0.48
BB&T 6.30
BBVA Compass 4.87
BMO 2.67
Capital One 9.67
Citigroup 14.00
Comerica 8.38
Discover 10.16
Fifth Third 2.59
Goldman Sachs 3.33
HSBC 10.83
Huntington 3.30
JPMorgan Chase 4.42
KeyCorp 8.85
M&T 6.18
Morgan Stanley 0.56
Northern Trust 17.91
PNC 3.60
RBS Citizens 3.15
Regions 6.22
Santander 13.28
State Street 0.00
SunTrust 2.74
U.S. Bancorp 4.17
UnionBanCal 13.19
Wells Fargo 5.68
Zions 10.68

Median = 5.0%

Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.

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Figure D.7. Other loans loss rates in the severely adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 3.89
American Express 4.50
Bank of America 1.58
Bank of NY-Mellon 0.99
BB&T 2.00
BBVA Compass 2.14
BMO 5.07
Capital One 3.46
Citigroup 2.59
Comerica 7.12
Discover 4.50
Fifth Third 3.10
Goldman Sachs 1.83
HSBC 2.16
Huntington 2.38
JPMorgan Chase 3.61
KeyCorp 2.24
M&T 2.40
Morgan Stanley 1.98
Northern Trust 7.81
PNC 1.70
RBS Citizens 2.44
Regions 2.59
Santander 4.32
State Street 2.69
SunTrust 1.45
U.S. Bancorp 4.33
UnionBanCal 3.86
Wells Fargo 2.93
Zions 4.81

Median = 2.6%

Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.

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Figure D.8. First-lien mortgages, domestic loss rates in the adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 4.14
American Express 0.00
Bank of America 3.43
Bank of NY-Mellon 0.96
BB&T 1.56
BBVA Compass 1.37
BMO 4.46
Capital One 1.41
Citigroup 5.02
Comerica 2.47
Discover 0.00
Fifth Third 4.26
Goldman Sachs 2.47
HSBC 13.15
Huntington 2.68
JPMorgan Chase 3.42
KeyCorp 3.45
M&T 3.01
Morgan Stanley 0.46
Northern Trust 3.00
PNC 1.54
RBS Citizens 2.40
Regions 4.54
Santander 3.14
State Street 0.00
SunTrust 3.19
U.S. Bancorp 1.69
UnionBanCal 1.43
Wells Fargo 3.25
Zions 0.26

Median = 2.6%

Estimates are for nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.

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Figure D.9. Junior liens and HELOCs, domestic loss rates in the adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 6.95
American Express 0.00
Bank of America 7.34
Bank of NY-Mellon 8.96
BB&T 3.59
BBVA Compass 7.47
BMO 6.38
Capital One 8.25
Citigroup 9.81
Comerica 4.42
Discover 9.24
Fifth Third 6.22
Goldman Sachs 8.49
HSBC 15.54
Huntington 5.24
JPMorgan Chase 8.21
KeyCorp 4.14
M&T 5.85
Morgan Stanley 8.31
Northern Trust 13.80
PNC 3.32
RBS Citizens 8.08
Regions 6.41
Santander 3.59
State Street 0.00
SunTrust 6.52
U.S. Bancorp 4.67
UnionBanCal 1.70
Wells Fargo 6.96
Zions 3.47

Median = 6.5%

Estimates are for nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.

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Figure D.10. Commercial and industrial loss rates in the adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 2.78
American Express 8.31
Bank of America 2.44
Bank of NY-Mellon 4.41
BB&T 3.10
BBVA Compass 2.81
BMO 3.53
Capital One 5.40
Citigroup 3.57
Comerica 1.90
Discover 10.17
Fifth Third 3.18
Goldman Sachs 6.07
HSBC 1.80
Huntington 3.47
JPMorgan Chase 4.76
KeyCorp 2.44
M&T 2.92
Morgan Stanley 6.36
Northern Trust 5.46
PNC 3.77
RBS Citizens 2.63
Regions 3.29
Santander 2.70
State Street 4.21
SunTrust 3.04
U.S. Bancorp 5.79
UnionBanCal 2.51
Wells Fargo 4.32
Zions 4.52

Median = 3.5%

Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances. Losses are calculated based on the exposure at default, which includes both outstanding balances and any additional drawdown of the credit line that occurs prior to default, while loss rates are calculated as a percent of outstanding balances.

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Figure D.11. Commercial real estate, domestic loss rates in the adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 3.04
American Express 0.00
Bank of America 5.63
Bank of NY-Mellon 5.53
BB&T 4.21
BBVA Compass 6.75
BMO 6.79
Capital One 4.28
Citigroup 6.53
Comerica 4.83
Discover 34.76
Fifth Third 6.35
Goldman Sachs 6.34
HSBC 7.96
Huntington 4.78
JPMorgan Chase 4.15
KeyCorp 5.88
M&T 4.65
Morgan Stanley 6.06
Northern Trust 7.49
PNC 6.58
RBS Citizens 5.60
Regions 7.60
Santander 6.31
State Street 16.08
SunTrust 3.64
U.S. Bancorp 7.32
UnionBanCal 6.49
Wells Fargo 5.16
Zions 5.36

Median = 6.0%

Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.

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Figure D.12. Credit card loss rates in the adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 0.00
American Express 8.41
Bank of America 10.95
Bank of NY-Mellon 0.00
BB&T 12.35
BBVA Compass 14.95
BMO 12.16
Capital One 17.13
Citigroup 14.00
Comerica 0.00
Discover 13.76
Fifth Third 14.97
Goldman Sachs 0.00
HSBC 13.49
Huntington 8.08
JPMorgan Chase 10.32
KeyCorp 13.79
M&T 13.46
Morgan Stanley 0.00
Northern Trust 0.00
PNC 11.63
RBS Citizens 13.43
Regions 13.54
Santander 13.43
State Street 0.00
SunTrust 10.67
U.S. Bancorp 13.28
UnionBanCal 0.00
Wells Fargo 13.49
Zions 13.30

Median = 12.3%

Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.

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Figure D.13. Other consumer loss rates in the adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 4.18
American Express 0.00
Bank of America 2.85
Bank of NY-Mellon 0.61
BB&T 4.89
BBVA Compass 4.04
BMO 2.20
Capital One 7.92
Citigroup 12.31
Comerica 7.23
Discover 9.08
Fifth Third 2.05
Goldman Sachs 2.89
HSBC 9.45
Huntington 2.64
JPMorgan Chase 3.74
KeyCorp 7.55
M&T 4.73
Morgan Stanley 0.56
Northern Trust 15.95
PNC 2.99
RBS Citizens 2.62
Regions 5.07
Santander 10.87
State Street 0.00
SunTrust 2.21
U.S. Bancorp 3.31
UnionBanCal 11.25
Wells Fargo 4.72
Zions 9.12

Median = 4.1%

Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.

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Figure D.14. Other loans loss rates in the adverse scenario

Bank Holding Company Percent
Ally 2.35
American Express 2.88
Bank of America 1.11
Bank of NY-Mellon 0.74
BB&T 1.29
BBVA Compass 1.54
BMO 3.65
Capital One 2.09
Citigroup 1.73
Comerica 4.29
Discover 2.65
Fifth Third 2.27
Goldman Sachs 1.33
HSBC 1.35
Huntington 1.51
JPMorgan Chase 2.30
KeyCorp 1.47
M&T 1.62
Morgan Stanley 1.43
Northern Trust 5.29
PNC 1.09
RBS Citizens 1.53
Regions 1.80
Santander 2.87
State Street 1.86
SunTrust 0.94
U.S. Bancorp 3.22
UnionBanCal 2.38
Wells Fargo 1.95
Zions 3.20

Median = 1.8%

Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.

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Last update: April 22, 2014