Accessible Version

Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee
January 26-27, 2010 Presentation Materials

Presentation Materials (PDF)

Pages 213 to 260 of the Transcript

Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Sack

Material for
FOMC Presentation: Financial Market Developments and Desk Operations

Brian Sack
January 26, 2010

Class II FOMC - Restricted FR

Exhibit 1

Top-left panel
(1)

Title: US Equity Prices (S&P 500)
Series: Standard & Poor's 500 Index
Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 22, 2010
Description: After increasing over much of the intermeeting period, US equity prices have decreased recently.

A vertical line marks the FOMC meeting of December 15-16, 2009.

Source: Bloomberg

Top-right panel
(2)

Title: VIX Index
Series: Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index
Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 22, 2010
Description: Option implied volatility has increased markedly in the past week.

Source: Bloomberg

Middle-left panel
(3)

Title: Corporate Debt Spreads
Series: High yield and investment grade corporate debt spreads
Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 21, 2010
Description: Corporate debt spreads continue to narrow.

Source: Bank of America

Middle-right panel
(4)

Title: High Yield Corporate Bond Risk Premium
Series: Quarterly average high yield U.S. corporate bond credit risk premium based on a persistent default rate model
Horizon: March 31, 1997 - December 31, 2009
Description: The bond risk premium continues to retrace the sharp increase that occurred in 2008.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Bottom-left panel
(5)

Title: CMBS Spreads
Series: CMBS spreads for junior, mezzanine and super senior tranches
Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 22, 2010
Description: CMBS spreads narrow over intermeeting period.

Source: JP Morgan Chase

Bottom-right panel
(6)

Title: US Equity Indices for Financial Firms
Series: Large and regional bank indices
Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 22, 2010
Description: Regional bank equity prices continue to increase while large bank equity prices have declined since January 4, 2010.

Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of New York


Exhibit 2

Top-left panel
(7)

Title: Implied Federal Funds Rate
Series: Federal funds rates implied by Eurodollar and federal funds futures contracts
Horizon: 12/15/09, 1/22/10
Description: The market's expectation for the future path of the federal funds rate has shifted down since the last FOMC meeting.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Top-right panel
(8)

Title: Treasury Yields
Series: Yields for the 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Treasury note
Horizon: August 1, 2008 - December 22, 2009
Description: The 2-year Treasury yield fell modestly, while longer-term yields ended the period roughly unchanged.

Source: Bloomberg

Middle-left panel
(9)

Title: Premium for Skew toward Higher Long Rates
Series: 3-month, 10-year payer skew, 100 bps out-of-the-money puts less at-the-money options
Horizon: August 1, 2003 - January 22, 2010
Description: The premium for protection against a sizable increase in longer-term interest rates has been increasing.

Source: JP Morgan Chase

Middle-right panel
(10)

Title: 5-Year 5-Year Forward Breakeven Rates
Series: 5-year, 5-year forward breakeven inflation rates from Barclays and from the Board of Governors
Horizon: January 1, 2002 - January 21, 2010
Description: Breakeven inflation rates have increased since late 2008.

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Barclays Capital

Bottom-left panel
(11) 5-Year 5-Year Forward Breakeven Statistics*

  Current
Level		 Pre-Crisis
Range		 Percent
Rank
Barclays 2.77 1.63-2.88 98.2
Board of Governors 3.06 2.31-3.36 89.2

* Pre-crisis range is January 2002 - July 2007  Return to text

Source: Barclays Capital, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Bottom-right panel
(12)

Title: Gross Treasury Coupon Issuance
Series: Gross issuance of TIPS and 2-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 10-, and 30-year notes and bonds
Horizon: 1992 - projected levels for 2010
Description: The issuance of nominal coupons is increasing dramatically while the issuance of TIPS is growing at a slower pace.

Source: US Treasury, Wrightson ICAP


Exhibit 3

Top-left panel
(13)

Title: Weekly Pace of MBS Purchases
Series: Monthly average of agency MBS purchases and projected path of weekly agency MBS purchases
Horizon: January 2009 - March 2010
Description: Agency MBS purchases continue to taper and are on track to meet the $1.25 trillion target.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Top-right panel
(14)

Title: Weekly Pace of Agency Debt Purchases
Series: Monthly average of agency debt purchases and projected path of weekly agency debt purchases
Horizon: January 2009 - March 2010
Description: Agency debt purchases have fallen behind their intended schedule.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Middle-left panel
(15)

Title: MBS Spreads
Series: Fannie Mae fixed-rate current coupon option-adjusted spreads to Treasury and to swap
Horizon: August 1, 2000 - January 22, 2010
Description: MBS spreads remain tight, despite the slower pace of purchases.

Source: Barclays Capital

Middle-right panel
(16)

Title: Agency Debt Spread
Series: Fannie Mae 5-year benchmark spread to Treasury
Horizon: August 1, 2000 - January 25, 2010
Description: Agency debt spreads remain tight, despite the slower pace of purchases.

Source: JP Morgan Chase

Bottom-left panel
(17)

Title: MBS Fails
Series: Dealer-reported failures to deliver MBS securities.
Horizon: January 1, 2002 - January 13, 2010
Description: The MBS market has been experiencing an unusually large volume of settlement fails in recent months.

Source: FR2004

Bottom-right panel
(18)

Title: Dollar Roll Sales
Series: Sales of dollar rolls by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Horizon: June 1, 2009 - January 11, 2010
Description: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York continues to sell dollar rolls.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York


Exhibit 4

Top-left panel
(19)

Title: Federal Reserve Short-Term Liquidity Facilities
Series: Size of short-term liquidity facilities
Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 21, 2010
Description: The volume of activity in the short-term facilities continues to decline.

TSLF, PDCF, AMLF, CPFF, FX Swaps, PCF, and TAF

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Top-right panel
(20) Liquidity Facility Usage

(Levels in $ Billions) Current Outstanding Peak Outstanding Peak Date
TSLF 0 223 12/4/08
PDCF 0 156 9/29/08
AMLF 0 152 10/1/08
CPFF 3.9 351 1/23/09
FX Swaps 0.2 586 12/4/08
PCF 14.9 114 10/28/08
TAF 38.5 493 3/11/09

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Middle-left panel
(21)

Title: Money Market Rates
Series: Spread between 3-month financial CP and the overnight index swap and the spread between 3-month LIBOR and the overnight index swap
Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 19, 2010
Description: Short-term funding spreads remain quite tight.

Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Middle-right panel
(22)

Title: Balance Sheet Assets by Category
Series: Federal Reserve balance sheet assets categorized by All Other, Lending to Systematically Important Institutions, Short-Term Liquidity Facilities, and Outright Asset Holdings
Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 21, 2010
Description: The dominant component of the balance sheet has become the outright holdings of SOMA assets as the volume of activity in the short-term facilities continues to decline.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Bottom-left panel
(23) Expected Use of Exit Tools Relative to First Target Rate Increase (% of Respondents)

  Before Concurrent After Never
RRP 73 23 4 0
TDF 70 23 5 2
IOER 15 75 10 0
Tsy Sales 6 0 60 34
Agy Sales 6 0 60 34
MBS Sales 4 2 60 34

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Exit Survey

Bottom-right panel
(24)

Title: Expected Timing of Exit Tools
Series: Survey respondents' predictions of timing of expected use of exit tools relative to timing of the first target rate increase.
Horizon: N/A
Description: Primary dealers expect reverse repurchase agreements and the term deposit facility to be used prior to the first target rate increase, interest on excess reserves to be used concurrent to the first target rate increase, and asset sales to follow the first target rate increase.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Exit Survey


Exhibit 5

Top-left panel
(25)

Title: Cumulative Size of Exit Programs
Series: Survey respondents' predictions of the cumulative size of the various exit programs
Horizon: Q2 2010 - Q2 2012
Description: Survey respondents expect reverse repurchase agreements and term deposits to be ramped up to about $250 billion between the second quarter of this year and the second quarter of next year and for asset sales to occur more slowly.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Exit Survey

Top-right panel
(26)

Title: Estimated Maximum Usage Over 6 week Period
Series: Survey respondents' predictions of the amount of liquidity which could be drained if necessary over a 6 week period without causing significant market disruption
Horizon: N/A
Description: Survey respondents expect $200 billion could be drained by reverse repos and another $200 billion could be drained by the term deposit facility over a 6 week period.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Exit Survey

Middle-left panel
(27)

Title: Probability of Reinvestment of Maturing Securities
Series: Survey respondents' predictions of the redemption policy to be taken with SOMA assets.
Horizon: N/A
Description: The majority of respondents expect the Fed either not to reinvest or only partially to reinvest its holdings of agency debt and MBS.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Exit Survey

Middle-right panel
(28)

Title: Expected Level of Reserves at First Tightening
Series: Survey respondents' predictions of the level of reserves at the time of the first target rate hike.
Horizon: N/A
Description: There is a wide range of expectations for the level of reserves at the first tightening, with most expectations concentrated within the $400 billion to $1 trillion range.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Exit Survey

Middle-left panel
(29)

Title: Expected Impact of Reverse Repos and Term Deposit Facility
Series: Survey respondents' predictions of the impact of reverse repos and the term deposit facility.
Horizon: N/A
Description: Survey respondents expect reverse repos and the term deposit facility to improve the FOMC's control of short-term interest rates and to contain inflation expectations.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Exit Survey

Middle-right panel
(30) Spread between Implied IOER and Federal Funds Effective Rate (in BPS)*

IOER Rate Level of Excess Reserves
$1 Trillion $500 Billion $0 - $25 Billion
25 BPS 10 5-7 0
100 BPS 15-29 10-20 0
200 BPS 20-50 10-25 0

* Includes 25th to 75th percentile of responses  Return to text

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Exit Survey



Appendix 2: Materials used by Messrs. Clouse and Hilton

Material for Briefing on Strategies for the Removal of Policy Accommodation

Jim Clouse
Spence Hilton
January 26, 2010

Class I FOMC- Restricted Controlled (FR)

Update on Reserve-Draining Tools

  • Capability to conduct RRP with MBS anticipated in late March.
  • Capability to conduct RRP with expanded counterparties anticipated in late spring.
  • TDF
    • Public comments due February 1
    • Board could issue final rule in March
    • Facility could be fully operational in May
  • Capability to conduct term RRP with foreign accounts may be available in July.
  • Reserve Collateral Accounts (RCAs)
    • Steering group being assembled to develop work plans.

Hypothetical Use of Draining Tools

  Reserve Balances With Alternative Assumptions
About Reserve Draining Tools ($ Billions)		 Assumed Paths for Tools
No Tools RRP RRP
+ TDF		 RRP
+ TDF
+ Foreign RRP		 RRP TDF Foreign
RRP
March 1269 1249 1249 1249 20 0 0
April 1172 1112 1112 1112 60 0 0
May 1252 1132 1057 1057 120 75 0
June 1205 1020 870 870 185 150 0
July 1194 949 724 674 245 225 50
August 1179 874 574 474 305 300 100
September 1163 758 408 308 405 350 100
October 1149 644 294 194 505 350 100
November 1135 630 280 180 505 350 100
December 1122 617 267 167 505 350 100

See "Projections of System Capacity to Absorb Reserve Balances," by Chris Burke, Seth Carpenter, and Jane Ihrig

Funds Rate and Reserve Demand

Top panel

  • What quantity of reserves must be drained to align funds rate and IOER?
  • How will funds rate respond to increase in IOER?

Bottom-left panel
Figure 3. Effective federal funds rate versus excess balances

A chart displays a scatterplot of the level of the effective federal funds rate (basis points) and the level of excess reserves (billions of dollars) over the period from December 4, 2008 to December 16, 2009. The scatterplot shows a noticeable downward slope, suggestive of a downward sloping demand for reserves. The historical relationship in this chart suggests that the level of reserve balances might need to be returned to a level of about $500 billion to push the federal funds rate close to the level of the interest rate on excess reserves.

See "Reserves and the Federal Funds Rate," by Gara Afonso, Chris Burke, Seth Carpenter, Jane Ihrig, Dennis Kuo, James McAndrews, John McGowan, Asani Sarkar, Jeffrey Shrader, David Skeie, and Victor Stebunovs.

Bottom-right panel
Spread of IOER Rate Over Funds Rate with Alternative Assumptions Regarding the Level of IOER and Excess Balances (Basis Points)

IOER (Percent) Level of Excess Reserves ($ Billions)
1000 500 25
0.25 10 6 -1
1.00 30 17 -3
2.00 44 26 -3

See "Exit Strategy Survey: Themes and Messages," by Mike McMorrow, Ellen Correia, and Mike Lementowski

A table reports the results from a question posed on a recent survey of primary dealers conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The question asked dealers how the gap between the interest rate on excess reserves and the federal funds rate would depend on the level of the interest rate on excess reserves and the level of excess reserves. In general, at low levels of reserves on the order of $25 billion, dealers anticipated that the federal funds rate would be very close to the interest rate on excess reserves. At levels of excess reserves around $500 billion, dealers anticipated that federal funds would trade a little below the interest rate on excess reserves. At this level of excess reserves, dealers anticipated that the gap between the interest rate on excess reserves and the federal funds rate could widen about 20 basis points as the interest rate on excess reserves is increased from 25 basis points to 200 basis points. At levels of excess reserves around $1000 billion, dealers expected that the federal funds would generally trade below the interest rate on excess reserves. At this level of excess reserves, dealers anticipated that the gap between the interest rate on excess reserves and the federal funds rate could widen about 35 basis points as the interest rate on excess reserves is increased from 25 basis points to 200 basis points.

Alternative Target Rates

Left panel

  • In some scenarios, linkage of federal funds rate to other short-term rates could be loosened.
    • But apparently not so far.
  • Alternative market rates include…
    • Libor, eurodollar, repo rates
    • Institutional factors could affect choice
    • Response of rates to shocks could differ
  • IOER rate could be used as primary policy instrument
    • Monitor a collection of money market rates (similar to BoE).
    • Still questions about connection between IOER and market rates
    • Governance issues in determination of IOER rate

Right panel
Selected Short-Term Interest Rates, June 1, 2008 to present

A line chart shows that, to date, the federal funds rate has remained close to other short-term market rates. However, if the federal funds rate became less reliable as a guide for policy, the Committee might consider alternative short-term market interest rates such as LIBOR, Eurodollar rates or repo rates for this purpose. Choosing a rate to replace the federal funds rate as a guide for monetary policy would require analysis of a number of issues including institutional factors affecting individual rates and differences in the way that alternative rates respond to changes in the economic outlook and financial conditions. The Committee could also consider using the interest rate on excess reserves as a policy rate. This approach could be subject to pitfalls, however, if the connection between the interest rate on excess reserves and market rates is quite loose.

See "Alternative Interest Rate Operating Targets," by Tobias Adrian, Haley Boesky, David Bowman, Chris Burke, Seth Carpenter, Margaret DeBoer, Michiel DePooter, Spence Hilton, Jane Ihrig, Mike Leahy, James McAndrews, Steve Meyer, Edward Nelson, Michael Palumbo, Roberto Perli, and Matthew Raskin.

Foreign Experience with Interest on Reserves

  • Most policy rate floors are effective
    • But somewhat less so in United Kingdom
    • Foreign experience (like U.S. experience) indicates that effectiveness of floor depends on scope of access to central bank accounts
  • Central banks with "floor systems" have been able to tighten policy by raising IOER or deposit rate even with substantial excess reserves.
    • Norges Bank has tightened policy with high reserves.
  • Caveat
    • Experience in other countries may be an imperfect guide to likely outcomes in the United States.

See "Interest on Excess Reserves as a Monetary Policy Instrument: The Experience of Foreign Central Banks," by David Bowman, Etienne Gagnon, and Mike Leahy.

Long-Run Balance Sheet Management Issues

  • Long-run policy implementation framework
    • Move away from mandatory reserve requirements?
    • Adopt corridor or floor system?
  • Long-run size of the balance sheet
    • Could be used actively to pursue macro objectives
  • Long-run composition of the balance sheet
    • Return to Treasuries only?
    • Shorten average maturity to increase liquidity?

See "Balance Sheet Management Issues in the Longer Term," by Jim Clouse, Spence Hilton, and Steve Meyer.

Asset Sales Strategies

Top panel
Domestic SOMA Assets and Reserves

(billions of dollars)  [Note: In the table data, strong emphasis (bold) indicates red text in the original document.]
SOMA Assets Levels Potential for Cumulative Redemptions, from 2010-Q2
2007-Q2 2010-Q2 2010-Q4 2011-Q4 2012-Q4 2013-Q4 2014-Q4 2015-Q4
Agency MBS 0 1,135 -45 -120 -185 -245 -300 -365
Agency Debt 0 170 -20 -60 -85 -105 -125 -130
Treasury Debt 791 775 -85 -155 -290 -345 -415 -440
Memo: Reserves 17 1,260            

Middle-left panel
Motivations for SOMA Asset Sales and Redemptions

  • Reduce Excess Reserves
  • Unwind Portfolio Balance Effects on Longer Term Rates
  • Rebalance the SOMA Portfolio

Middle-right panel
Risks of Aggressive Asset Sales

  • Uncertainty about Rate Effects of Asset Sales
  • Announcement Effect Could Cause an Immediate, Sharp Rise in Long-Term Interest Rates
  • Possible Impact on Market Liquidity and Function
  • Potential for Sizable Capital Losses

Bottom panel
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Assets under Alternative SOMA Reduction Strategies

(from "Strategies for Asset Sales and Redemptions," Keane, Lucca, Remache, and Sack)
  2010:Q2 2010:Q4 2011:Q4 2012:Q4 2013:Q4 2014:Q4 2015:Q4
Rapid Asset Sales 1 2,346 1,666 1,040 1,096 1,153 1,215 1,266
Redemptions Only 2 2,346 2,256 2,111 1,969 1,877 1,775 1,703
Steady and Gradual Reduction 3 2,346 2,097 1,850 1,581 1,351 1,215 1,266
State-dependent Reduction 4 - - - - - - -

Alternative Sequencing Strategies

Left panel
Alternative Sequencing Strategies

(from "Strategies for Sequencing the Use of Reserve Draining Tools and Changes in Policy Rates," Clouse and Hilton)
Strategy Potential Benefits Risks/Other Issues
Ex-Post
Contingent Reserve Drain
  • Allows a clear test of whether draining tools are necessary, and could avoid their use altogether.
  • Relatively simple communications strategy.
  • Risks some period in which funds rate could be well below the IOER rate.
Early Reserve Drain
  • Reduces risk that funds rate will be volatile or trade below IOER rate when policy is first tightened.
  • Early reduction in reserve balances could help to contain inflation expectations, either by demonstrating the Fed has welldeveloped exit capabilities or operating through a reserve channel.
  • Potential communication challenges in avoiding impression that increases in IOER and FFT rates may be imminent.
  • Necessarily entails use of temporary reserve draining tools, with a need for clear operating objectives in the pretightening interval.
Concurrent Reserve Drain
  • Relatively simple communications strategy.
  • Necessarily entails use of temporary reserve draining tools.
  • May not reduce the risk that the funds rate could trade well below the IOER rate for some period if IOER is not effective and reserve draining tools cannot be ramped up quickly without complications.

Right panel
Criteria for Choosing Among Sequencing Strategies

  • Degree of confidence about using IOER rate by itself to control short-term rates.
  • Possibility of other benefits from draining reserves.
  • Expected time frame for draining significant reserves without complications.
  • Communications challenges with early reserve drain strategy.
  • Costs and risks of draining operations which could prove unnecessary.


Possible Questions for Committee Discussion of Strategies for Removing Policy Accommodation

  1. Over the next year, how should asset sales be used as part of the exit strategy?
    • Relatively rapid sales (say, over $200 billion)
    • Very gradual sales over the next year ($0 to $200 billion)
    • Redemptions only
    • State contingent sales (and/or purchases)
  2. How should redemptions of existing SOMA holdings proceed over the next year?
    • Redeem all agency and MBS and no Treasuries
    • Redeem all agency and MBS and some Treasuries
    • Redeem all agency and MBS and all Treasuries
    • Redeem some agency and MBS and no Treasuries
    • Redeem nothing
  3. How should the use of reverse repos (RRPs) and term deposits (TDs) be sequenced relative to an increase in the IOER rate?
    • Use RRPs and TDs only if necessary after an increase in the IOER rate (ex-post contingent strategy)
    • Use RRPs and TDs before an increase in the IOER rate (ex-ante strategy)
    • Use RRPs and TDs concurrent with increase in IOER rate
  4. In order to ensure that increases in the IOER rate provide a sufficient tightening of money market conditions, what volume of reserves (if any) should be drained in advance of the first IOER increase?
  5. What structure for the Federal Reserve balance sheet would you favor in the long run?
    • All Treasuries, spread across all maturities (as in previous practice)
    • All Treasuries, but concentrated in bills and short-term coupons
    • Treasuries, agencies, and MBS
    • Other: [blank space]
  6. How concerned are you that the characteristics of the federal funds rate as an operating target will deteriorate significantly? Do you see strong advantages in retaining a market interest rate as an operating target? Do you see other interest rates as particularly suitable replacements for the funds rate as an operating target?
  7. Will the Committee need to determine its longer-run operating framework far in advance in order to implement an effective exit strategy from the current period of extraordinary policy accommodation?


Appendix 3: Materials used by Messrs. Sichel, Palumbo, and Sheets

Material for Staff Presentation on the Economic Outlook
January 26, 2010

Class II FOMC - Restricted (FR)

Exhibit 1
Near-term Outlook

Top-left panel
Real GDP

Percent change, annual rate
  GDP Dec GB
2009:Q3 2.24 2.46
2009:Q4 5.29 3.83
2010:Q1 2.76 3.61

Top-right panel
Contributions to Real GDP Growth

(Percentage points, annual rate)
2009
Q4		 2010
Q1
1. Final sales 1.6 2.5
2. Dec. GB 1.5 2.6
3. Inventories 3.7 0.3
4. Dec. GB 2.3 1.0

Middle-left panel
Real Inventory Investment

Billions of chained (2005) dollars
Period Jan. GB Dec. GB
2006:Q1 65.81 65.81
2006:Q2 72.54 72.54
2006:Q3 67.51 67.51
2006:Q4 31.83 31.83
2007:Q1 14.46 14.46
2007:Q2 23.30 23.30
2007:Q3 29.80 29.80
2007:Q4 10.32 10.32
2008:Q1 0.62 0.62
2008:Q2 -37.09 -37.09
2008:Q3 -29.71 -29.71
2008:Q4 -37.38 -37.38
2009:Q1 -113.89 -113.89
2009:Q2 -160.22 -160.22
2009:Q3 -139.17 -136.66
Forecast
2009:Q4 -24.10 -66.50
2010:Q1 -15.62 -33.76
2010:Q2 -1.78 -15.15
2010:Q3 22.36 6.90
2010:Q4 32.02 23.57

Middle-right panel
Inventory Adjustments

  • Slowdown in pace of liquidation sooner than expected.
  • Firms have pulled forward production adjustments.

Bottom-left panel
Real PCE Goods

Billions of chained (2005) dollars
Period Real PCE Goods
January 2006 3149.88
February 2006 3143.08
March 2006 3144.12
April 2006 3158.07
May 2006 3142.07
June 2006 3152.28
July 2006 3180.22
August 2006 3158.76
September 2006 3190.23
October 2006 3210.08
November 2006 3209.05
December 2006 3248.50
January 2007 3254.44
February 2007 3243.70
March 2007 3263.48
April 2007 3248.21
May 2007 3266.66
June 2007 3251.38
July 2007 3265.85
August 2007 3275.27
September 2007 3300.70
October 2007 3304.04
November 2007 3311.46
December 2007 3299.03
January 2008 3272.83
February 2008 3244.67
March 2008 3268.69
April 2008 3263.41
May 2008 3261.39
June 2008 3248.69
July 2008 3201.11
August 2008 3219.96
September 2008 3159.87
October 2008 3126.23
November 2008 3131.30
December 2008 3073.55
January 2009 3128.82
February 2009 3141.29
March 2009 3119.17
April 2009 3094.93
May 2009 3105.96
June 2009 3114.74
July 2009 3130.33
August 2009 3213.40
September 2009 3135.38
October 2009 3160.21
November 2009 3192.56
Staff estimates
December 2009 3198.82
January 2010 3199.95
February 2010 3216.85
March 2010 3231.75
Quarterly averages
Billions of chained (2005) dollars
Period Real PCE Goods
2006:Q1 3145.69
2006:Q2 3150.81
2006:Q3 3176.40
2006:Q4 3222.54
2007:Q1 3253.87
2007:Q2 3255.42
2007:Q3 3280.61
2007:Q4 3304.85
2008:Q1 3262.06
2008:Q2 3257.83
2008:Q3 3193.64
2008:Q4 3110.36
2009:Q1 3129.76
2009:Q2 3105.21
2009:Q3 3159.70
Staff estimates
2009:Q4 3183.86
2010:Q1 3216.18

Bottom-right panel
Orders and Shipments*

Billions of dollars
Period Orders Shipments
January 2006 62.76 60.39
February 2006 63.06 60.93
March 2006 65.65 62.35
April 2006 63.34 62.14
May 2006 64.54 62.75
June 2006 64.86 62.55
July 2006 64.17 62.11
August 2006 64.48 63.25
September 2006 67.41 62.44
October 2006 65.30 61.48
November 2006 65.64 62.46
December 2006 65.51 62.83
January 2007 61.79 59.20
February 2007 61.10 60.43
March 2007 63.53 61.42
April 2007 64.45 61.59
May 2007 63.20 61.94
June 2007 62.54 61.87
July 2007 62.07 60.21
August 2007 63.43 62.53
September 2007 62.91 62.97
October 2007 62.52 62.02
November 2007 62.33 61.94
December 2007 65.89 63.74
January 2008 64.99 62.66
February 2008 64.08 61.70
March 2008 63.84 63.22
April 2008 65.47 63.11
May 2008 65.28 63.58
June 2008 65.33 63.65
July 2008 65.12 63.13
August 2008 64.17 62.42
September 2008 61.64 63.51
October 2008 57.90 60.58
November 2008 58.68 59.75
December 2008 55.34 60.24
January 2009 48.55 54.00
February 2009 49.73 53.82
March 2009 49.77 53.27
April 2009 48.30 52.16
May 2009 50.15 51.91
June 2009 52.21 52.78
July 2009 51.80 53.10
August 2009 51.05 52.17
September 2009 52.87 52.44
October 2009 51.92 52.69
November 2009 53.30 53.27
Staff estimate
December 2009 ND 53.34
January 2010 ND 52.89
February 2010 ND 53.59
March 2010 ND 54.03

* Nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.  Return to text


Exhibit 2
Medium-term Outlook

Top-left panel
Real GDP

Percent change, annual rate
Period Real GDP December GB
2009:H1 -3.63 -3.63
2009:H2 3.75 3.14
2010 3.61 3.63
2011 4.73 4.51

Top-right panel
Factors Contributing to Recovery

  • Accommodative monetary policy.
  • Financial conditions more supportive of growth.
  • Reduced drag from past declines in wealth.
  • Improvement in confidence.

Middle-left panel
Real Final Sales: Looking Back to June 2009

Percent change, annual rate
Period Final Sales June GB
2009:H1 -1.75 -1.61
2009:H2 1.50 -0.62
2010 3.16 2.60

Middle-right panel
Changes in the Outlook since June

  • Positives
    • Financial conditions
    • Fiscal stimulus
    • Foreign growth and dollar
  • Negatives
    • Labor markets

Bottom-left panel
Financials: 2010:Q1 Value versus June Greenbook

1. Stock market +17 percent
2. BBB bond yield -140 basis points
3. House prices +8 percent
4. Mortgage rates -20 basis points

Bottom-right panel
Total Hours*

Index, 2006:Q1 = 100
Period January GB June GB
2006:Q1 100.00 ND
2006:Q2 100.10 ND
2006:Q3 100.56 ND
2006:Q4 101.01 ND
2007:Q1 100.94 ND
2007:Q2 101.16 ND
2007:Q3 100.78 ND
2007:Q4 100.73 ND
2008:Q1 100.31 ND
2008:Q2 99.88 ND
2008:Q3 98.88 ND
2008:Q4 96.75 ND
2009:Q1 94.49 94.54
2009:Q2 92.67 93.13
2009:Q3 91.58 92.91
2009:Q4 91.73 93.03
Forecast
2010:Q1 92.25 93.30
2010:Q2 93.00 93.75
2010:Q3 93.94 94.27
2010:Q4 94.99 94.86

* Nonfarm business sector.  Return to text


Exhibit 3
Household Finance and Consumer Spending

Top-left panel
Personal Saving Rate

Period Percent of disposable income
1999:Q1 4.30
1999:Q2 3.00
1999:Q3 2.40
1999:Q4 2.60
2000:Q1 3.10
2000:Q2 3.10
2000:Q3 3.10
2000:Q4 2.40
2001:Q1 2.80
2001:Q2 2.10
2001:Q3 4.20
2001:Q4 1.60
2002:Q1 4.00
2002:Q2 4.00
2002:Q3 3.10
2002:Q4 3.10
2003:Q1 3.10
2003:Q2 3.50
2003:Q3 3.60
2003:Q4 3.60
2004:Q1 3.20
2004:Q2 3.60
2004:Q3 3.30
2004:Q4 3.60
2005:Q1 1.60
2005:Q2 1.30
2005:Q3 1.20
2005:Q4 1.50
2006:Q1 2.20
2006:Q2 2.50
2006:Q3 2.30
2006:Q4 2.50
2007:Q1 2.00
2007:Q2 1.80
2007:Q3 1.60
2007:Q4 1.50
2008:Q1 1.20
2008:Q2 3.40
2008:Q3 2.20
2008:Q4 3.80
2009:Q1 3.70
2009:Q2 5.40
2009:Q3 4.50
Forecast
2009:Q4 4.27
2010:Q1 4.32
2010:Q2 3.75
2010:Q3 3.85
2010:Q4 3.99
2011:Q1 3.75
2011:Q2 3.77
2011:Q3 3.89
2011:Q4 3.99

Top-right panel
Household Debt

Period Percent change, annual rate
1999:Q1 9.12
1999:Q2 7.94
1999:Q3 8.90
1999:Q4 6.49
2000:Q1 8.22
2000:Q2 9.46
2000:Q3 8.59
2000:Q4 8.90
2001:Q1 9.11
2001:Q2 10.32
2001:Q3 8.96
2001:Q4 8.77
2002:Q1 10.30
2002:Q2 9.89
2002:Q3 9.48
2002:Q4 11.78
2003:Q1 10.82
2003:Q2 13.01
2003:Q3 11.26
2003:Q4 9.91
2004:Q1 10.01
2004:Q2 11.37
2004:Q3 9.31
2004:Q4 11.90
2005:Q1 9.17
2005:Q2 11.12
2005:Q3 11.24
2005:Q4 11.02
2006:Q1 11.35
2006:Q2 11.15
2006:Q3 8.55
2006:Q4 7.59
2007:Q1 6.95
2007:Q2 7.19
2007:Q3 5.87
2007:Q4 5.92
2008:Q1 3.09
2008:Q2 0.11
2008:Q3 -0.54
2008:Q4 -1.90
2009:Q1 -1.22
2009:Q2 -1.63
2009:Q3 -2.66
Forecast
2009:Q4 -2.15
2010:Q1 -0.62
2010:Q2 -0.04
2010:Q3 0.51
2010:Q4 1.01
2011:Q1 1.51
2011:Q2 1.87
2011:Q3 2.21
2011:Q4 2.52

Middle-left panel
Household Debt Service

Period Percent of disposable income
1980:Q1 11.21
1980:Q2 11.19
1980:Q3 10.91
1980:Q4 10.61
1981:Q1 10.65
1981:Q2 10.78
1981:Q3 10.65
1981:Q4 10.70
1982:Q1 10.76
1982:Q2 10.80
1982:Q3 10.70
1982:Q4 10.64
1983:Q1 10.60
1983:Q2 10.61
1983:Q3 10.61
1983:Q4 10.67
1984:Q1 10.70
1984:Q2 10.84
1984:Q3 10.94
1984:Q4 11.07
1985:Q1 11.41
1985:Q2 11.50
1985:Q3 11.86
1985:Q4 11.97
1986:Q1 11.99
1986:Q2 12.08
1986:Q3 12.22
1986:Q4 12.38
1987:Q1 12.22
1987:Q2 12.38
1987:Q3 12.25
1987:Q4 12.08
1988:Q1 12.03
1988:Q2 12.01
1988:Q3 11.98
1988:Q4 11.85
1989:Q1 11.83
1989:Q2 12.02
1989:Q3 12.11
1989:Q4 12.12
1990:Q1 12.05
1990:Q2 12.02
1990:Q3 12.02
1990:Q4 12.03
1991:Q1 11.99
1991:Q2 11.83
1991:Q3 11.73
1991:Q4 11.53
1992:Q1 11.30
1992:Q2 11.14
1992:Q3 10.99
1992:Q4 10.81
1993:Q1 10.99
1993:Q2 10.80
1993:Q3 10.85
1993:Q4 10.73
1994:Q1 10.86
1994:Q2 10.86
1994:Q3 10.96
1994:Q4 11.06
1995:Q1 11.25
1995:Q2 11.47
1995:Q3 11.59
1995:Q4 11.67
1996:Q1 11.69
1996:Q2 11.73
1996:Q3 11.80
1996:Q4 11.87
1997:Q1 11.83
1997:Q2 11.86
1997:Q3 11.89
1997:Q4 11.85
1998:Q1 11.73
1998:Q2 11.76
1998:Q3 11.76
1998:Q4 11.81
1999:Q1 11.88
1999:Q2 12.03
1999:Q3 12.16
1999:Q4 12.13
2000:Q1 12.04
2000:Q2 12.20
2000:Q3 12.36
2000:Q4 12.59
2001:Q1 12.66
2001:Q2 12.86
2001:Q3 12.73
2001:Q4 13.10
2002:Q1 12.95
2002:Q2 13.01
2002:Q3 13.17
2002:Q4 13.24
2003:Q1 13.26
2003:Q2 13.21
2003:Q3 13.14
2003:Q4 13.19
2004:Q1 13.22
2004:Q2 13.19
2004:Q3 13.34
2004:Q4 13.29
2005:Q1 13.65
2005:Q2 13.76
2005:Q3 13.65
2005:Q4 13.75
2006:Q1 13.70
2006:Q2 13.76
2006:Q3 13.84
2006:Q4 13.85
2007:Q1 13.83
2007:Q2 13.86
2007:Q3 13.91
2007:Q4 13.88
2008:Q1 13.91
2008:Q2 13.47
2008:Q3 13.61
2008:Q4 13.57
2009:Q1 13.47
2009:Q2 13.05
2009:Q3 12.85
2009:Q4 12.62
Forecast
2010:Q1 12.39
2010:Q2 12.32
2010:Q3 12.18
2010:Q4 12.07
2011:Q1 12.02
2011:Q2 11.96
2011:Q3 11.90
2011:Q4 11.87

Middle-right panel
Household Net Worth

Period Ratio to disposable income
1988:Q1 4.81
1988:Q2 4.84
1988:Q3 4.81
1988:Q4 4.82
1989:Q1 4.82
1989:Q2 4.89
1989:Q3 4.97
1989:Q4 4.96
1990:Q1 4.86
1990:Q2 4.85
1990:Q3 4.70
1990:Q4 4.76
1991:Q1 4.87
1991:Q2 4.82
1991:Q3 4.83
1991:Q4 4.89
1992:Q1 4.78
1992:Q2 4.73
1992:Q3 4.73
1992:Q4 4.76
1993:Q1 4.87
1993:Q2 4.81
1993:Q3 4.87
1993:Q4 4.86
1994:Q1 4.85
1994:Q2 4.78
1994:Q3 4.79
1994:Q4 4.74
1995:Q1 4.79
1995:Q2 4.89
1995:Q3 4.98
1995:Q4 5.05
1996:Q1 5.08
1996:Q2 5.10
1996:Q3 5.10
1996:Q4 5.11
1997:Q1 5.08
1997:Q2 5.32
1997:Q3 5.44
1997:Q4 5.41
1998:Q1 5.58
1998:Q2 5.60
1998:Q3 5.34
1998:Q4 5.69
1999:Q1 5.74
1999:Q2 5.92
1999:Q3 5.79
1999:Q4 6.16
2000:Q1 6.17
2000:Q2 6.02
2000:Q3 5.97
2000:Q4 5.73
2001:Q1 5.47
2001:Q2 5.64
2001:Q3 5.26
2001:Q4 5.53
2002:Q1 5.44
2002:Q2 5.21
2002:Q3 5.00
2002:Q4 5.11
2003:Q1 5.07
2003:Q2 5.25
2003:Q3 5.28
2003:Q4 5.50
2004:Q1 5.60
2004:Q2 5.62
2004:Q3 5.61
2004:Q4 5.79
2005:Q1 5.96
2005:Q2 6.07
2005:Q3 6.20
2005:Q4 6.28
2006:Q1 6.39
2006:Q2 6.25
2006:Q3 6.25
2006:Q4 6.38
2007:Q1 6.34
2007:Q2 6.38
2007:Q3 6.32
2007:Q4 6.10
2008:Q1 5.80
2008:Q2 5.48
2008:Q3 5.26
2008:Q4 4.77
2009:Q1 4.51
2009:Q2 4.64
2009:Q3 4.88
2009:Q4 4.88
Forecast
2010:Q1 4.89
2010:Q2 4.92
2010:Q3 4.93
2010:Q4 4.93
2011:Q1 4.97
2011:Q2 4.98
2011:Q3 5.00
2011:Q4 5.03

Average from 1960 to 2009 is about 4.94.

Bottom-left panel
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Billions of dollars
Period History and
January GB forecast		 Simulation based on wealth,
income, and interest rates
2006:Q1 8986.63 8986.63
2006:Q2 9035.05 9035.05
2006:Q3 9090.71 9090.71
2006:Q4 9181.62 9181.62
2007:Q1 9265.14 9265.14
2007:Q2 9291.50 9335.56
2007:Q3 9335.58 9400.90
2007:Q4 9363.56 9462.01
2008:Q1 9349.57 9507.43
2008:Q2 9350.97 9537.85
2008:Q3 9267.71 9560.74
2008:Q4 9195.29 9570.30
2009:Q1 9209.21 9566.47
2009:Q2 9189.04 9560.73
2009:Q3 9252.59 9556.91
2009:Q4 9300.82 9555.00
Forecast
2010:Q1 9363.97 9573.15
2010:Q2 9427.66 9592.30
2010:Q3 9495.10 9621.08
2010:Q4 9562.05 9659.56
2011:Q1 9639.25 9709.79
2011:Q2 9725.44 9761.25
2011:Q3 9818.67 9814.94
2011:Q4 9916.09 9877.76

Bottom-right panel
Discussion

  • Consumer spending dropped far below the simulation in 2008 and early 2009.
  • Sharp tightening in credit and heightened anxiety about depth of recession and job loss played important roles in "shortfall."
  • We expect spending to continue to accelerate this year and in 2011.

Exhibit 4
Real Estate Markets and Construction Activity

Top-left panel
Existing Home Prices

Index, 2006:Q1 = 100
Period LP national index
2003:Q1 67.6
2003:Q2 68.9
2003:Q3 70.9
2003:Q4 72.8
2004:Q1 76.1
2004:Q2 79.3
2004:Q3 81.9
2004:Q4 84.9
2005:Q1 89.6
2005:Q2 92.7
2005:Q3 95.7
2005:Q4 98.1
2006:Q1 100.0
2006:Q2 99.6
2006:Q3 99.2
2006:Q4 99.9
2007:Q1 97.6
2007:Q2 95.8
2007:Q3 92.8
2007:Q4 89.8
2008:Q1 85.3
2008:Q2 81.4
2008:Q3 77.3
2008:Q4 72.2
2009:Q1 66.5
2009:Q2 68.7
2009:Q3 70.0
Forecast
2009:Q4 68.8
2010:Q1 67.8
2010:Q2 67.3
2010:Q3 67.1
2010:Q4 67.1
2011:Q1 67.1
2011:Q2 67.2
2011:Q3 67.4
2011:Q4 67.5

[Inset:] Percent change, a.r.
Percent change, a.r.
2009:H1: -9.5
Q3: 7.5
Q4p: -6.7

Top-right panel
Foreclosure Starts and Vacant Homes

Period Foreclosure starts
(Thousands of units)		 Homeowner vacancy rate
(Percent)
2003:Q1 194.79 1.71
2003:Q2 171.13 1.75
2003:Q3 202.69 1.89
2003:Q4 241.61 1.76
2004:Q1 239.46 1.70
2004:Q2 210.39 1.75
2004:Q3 220.65 1.69
2004:Q4 244.28 1.76
2005:Q1 222.98 1.79
2005:Q2 206.94 1.86
2005:Q3 221.61 1.90
2005:Q4 226.71 1.96
2006:Q1 231.91 2.08
2006:Q2 216.56 2.27
2006:Q3 243.36 2.50
2006:Q4 311.10 2.64
2007:Q1 320.72 2.76
2007:Q2 321.66 2.69
2007:Q3 423.59 2.71
2007:Q4 475.64 2.74
2008:Q1 532.82 2.85
2008:Q2 572.54 2.90
2008:Q3 568.26 2.81
2008:Q4 573.97 2.84
2009:Q1 717.06 2.65
2009:Q2 711.30 2.59
2009:Q3 748.99 2.61
Forecast
2009:Q4 770.70 ND
2010:Q1 689.90 ND
2010:Q2 676.50 ND
2010:Q3 668.50 ND
2010:Q4 659.40 ND
2011:Q1 648.80 ND
2011:Q2 635.10 ND
2011:Q3 625.10 ND
2011:Q4 610.80 ND

Middle-left panel
Housing Demand

  • Existing home sales rose noticeably over the second half of last year.
  • Demand lifted by low mortgage rates and low home prices.
  • A growing sense that prices may have bottomed out and a gradual increase in employment should contribute to rising demand.

Middle-right panel
Single-family Construction

Millions of units
Period New home sales Housing starts for sale Liquidation (approximate)
[new home sales minus
housing starts for sale]
2006:Q1 1.12 1.28 ND
2006:Q2 1.09 1.15 ND
2006:Q3 1.01 0.98 ND
2006:Q4 0.98 0.89 ND
2007:Q1 0.85 0.89 ND
2007:Q2 0.84 0.83 0.01
2007:Q3 0.72 0.66 0.06
2007:Q4 0.66 0.54 0.12
2008:Q1 0.56 0.46 0.10
2008:Q2 0.51 0.37 0.14
2008:Q3 0.46 0.30 0.16
2008:Q4 0.39 0.21 0.18
2009:Q1 0.34 0.19 0.15
2009:Q2 0.37 0.24 0.13
2009:Q3 0.41 0.29 0.12
2009:Q4 0.37 0.27 0.10
Forecast
2010:Q1 0.47 0.33 0.14
2010:Q2 0.45 0.35 0.10
2010:Q3 0.46 0.42 0.04
2010:Q4 0.48 0.51 ND
2011:Q1 0.51 0.57 ND
2011:Q2 0.57 0.63 ND
2011:Q3 0.63 0.70 ND
2011:Q4 0.69 0.77 ND

[Inset:] New home inventory
(thousands)
May 2007: 545
Nov. 2009: 235

Bottom-left panel
Commercial Property*

Period Prices
(Index, 2006:Q1 = 100)		 Vacancy rates
(Percent)
2000:Q1 61.93 7.93
2000:Q2 63.55 7.40
2000:Q3 64.66 7.37
2000:Q4 65.41 7.47
2001:Q1 65.26 8.03
2001:Q2 64.83 8.97
2001:Q3 64.37 9.83
2001:Q4 63.45 10.77
2002:Q1 64.29 11.43
2002:Q2 64.39 11.70
2002:Q3 65.01 11.90
2002:Q4 65.65 12.07
2003:Q1 67.08 12.27
2003:Q2 67.72 12.40
2003:Q3 68.31 12.37
2003:Q4 69.27 12.33
2004:Q1 70.36 12.20
2004:Q2 71.50 11.97
2004:Q3 73.00 11.73
2004:Q4 75.15 11.43
2005:Q1 74.84 11.23
2005:Q2 88.72 10.90
2005:Q3 92.27 10.60
2005:Q4 95.26 10.30
2006:Q1 100.00 10.27
2006:Q2 101.57 10.17
2006:Q3 104.22 10.00
2006:Q4 109.85 9.93
2007:Q1 112.43 10.07
2007:Q2 117.35 10.13
2007:Q3 116.18 10.13
2007:Q4 113.22 10.30
2008:Q1 110.31 10.60
2008:Q2 104.24 11.00
2008:Q3 103.01 11.40
2008:Q4 96.24 11.97
2009:Q1 87.98 12.80
2009:Q2 80.10 13.47
2009:Q3 76.79 13.93
Forecast
2009:Q4 74.07 14.23
2010:Q1 72.21 ND
2010:Q2 71.49 ND
2010:Q3 70.96 ND
2010:Q4 70.60 ND
2011:Q1 70.43 ND
2011:Q2 70.50 ND
2011:Q3 70.67 ND
2011:Q4 71.31 ND

* Average of series for office, industrial, and retail properties.  Return to text

Bottom-right panel
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey

  • Respondents expecting performance of commercial mortgages to deteriorate further this year.
  • Banks have continued to tighten CRE lending standards.
  • Banks reported a further weakening in demand for CRE loans.

Exhibit 5
Business Finance and Investment

Top-left panel
National Federation of Independent Business

Percent
Period Credit more difficult than three months ago Planning capital expenditures in next six months
January 2000 3.88 36.67
February 2000 3.84 37.55
March 2000 3.58 36.60
April 2000 3.88 35.40
May 2000 4.37 33.63
June 2000 5.52 32.55
July 2000 5.53 33.73
August 2000 5.50 33.60
September 2000 4.92 35.02
October 2000 4.79 34.18
November 2000 5.66 34.24
December 2000 5.30 32.76
January 2001 5.45 31.68
February 2001 4.76 32.89
March 2001 4.17 32.68
April 2001 3.53 33.07
May 2001 3.06 31.30
June 2001 3.00 31.62
July 2001 3.25 30.77
August 2001 3.21 30.59
September 2001 4.93 29.89
October 2001 4.83 29.42
November 2001 4.01 28.52
December 2001 2.20 28.06
January 2002 2.02 28.08
February 2002 2.65 28.93
March 2002 3.44 30.12
April 2002 4.53 31.14
May 2002 5.14 31.67
June 2002 4.84 31.30
July 2002 4.02 31.06
August 2002 3.56 29.55
September 2002 3.24 29.76
October 2002 3.14 29.99
November 2002 1.98 30.45
December 2002 2.74 29.44
January 2003 2.92 29.16
February 2003 4.61 28.66
March 2003 4.43 27.57
April 2003 3.92 27.23
May 2003 3.19 27.42
June 2003 3.32 29.01
July 2003 3.45 28.67
August 2003 3.56 30.77
September 2003 3.20 29.82
October 2003 3.40 30.09
November 2003 3.96 27.99
December 2003 3.64 30.87
January 2004 3.16 32.36
February 2004 2.58 32.56
March 2004 2.43 31.81
April 2004 2.63 31.75
May 2004 2.58 32.79
June 2004 3.16 31.54
July 2004 3.60 31.80
August 2004 3.91 31.56
September 2004 3.79 32.58
October 2004 3.59 32.91
November 2004 3.22 32.31
December 2004 3.53 33.37
January 2005 3.74 32.88
February 2005 3.94 33.78
March 2005 3.16 33.36
April 2005 3.74 32.57
May 2005 4.28 32.78
June 2005 4.61 32.76
July 2005 4.05 32.63
August 2005 3.92 32.71
September 2005 3.98 31.73
October 2005 4.11 31.43
November 2005 4.49 31.61
December 2005 4.18 31.45
January 2006 4.69 31.99
February 2006 4.64 32.29
March 2006 5.57 31.88
April 2006 5.17 32.08
May 2006 4.93 29.83
June 2006 5.00 29.34
July 2006 5.44 29.50
August 2006 6.30 30.19
September 2006 5.53 30.91
October 2006 5.67 30.67
November 2006 5.08 30.97
December 2006 5.87 28.82
January 2007 5.32 28.04
February 2007 5.37 27.69
March 2007 5.63 30.31
April 2007 5.92 29.86
May 2007 5.90 29.58
June 2007 5.68 28.73
July 2007 5.45 28.80
August 2007 5.68 28.73
September 2007 6.77 28.74
October 2007 7.28 28.53
November 2007 7.38 27.89
December 2007 6.58 27.48
January 2008 6.68 26.45
February 2008 6.40 26.13
March 2008 6.32 24.79
April 2008 7.28 24.99
May 2008 7.86 24.69
June 2008 8.34 25.74
July 2008 8.10 24.73
August 2008 8.72 24.56
September 2008 9.74 22.55
October 2008 9.93 21.73
November 2008 10.33 20.51
December 2008 10.60 18.55
January 2009 11.70 18.26
February 2009 12.76 17.26
March 2009 12.67 17.26
April 2009 13.28 17.04
May 2009 13.85 17.75
June 2009 14.99 18.70
July 2009 15.08 18.98
August 2009 14.40 18.09
September 2009 14.05 18.06
October 2009 13.92 17.61
November 2009 14.32 17.12
December 2009 14.62 16.63

Note: Three-month moving average.

Top-right panel
Corporate Bond Spreads

Percentage points
Period 10-year BBB 10-year high yield
7 January 2000 1.45 4.23
14 January 2000 1.48 4.15
21 January 2000 1.51 4.19
28 January 2000 1.50 4.30
4 February 2000 1.45 4.39
11 February 2000 1.50 4.35
18 February 2000 1.49 4.53
25 February 2000 1.45 4.69
3 March 2000 1.63 4.81
10 March 2000 1.57 4.81
17 March 2000 1.62 5.09
24 March 2000 1.60 5.18
31 March 2000 1.82 5.60
7 April 2000 1.82 5.74
14 April 2000 1.93 5.60
21 April 2000 1.93 5.53
28 April 2000 2.05 5.39
5 May 2000 2.04 5.20
12 May 2000 2.05 5.28
19 May 2000 2.10 5.36
26 May 2000 2.19 5.65
2 June 2000 2.19 5.75
9 June 2000 2.13 5.67
16 June 2000 2.08 5.71
23 June 2000 2.05 5.57
30 June 2000 2.04 5.74
7 July 2000 2.06 5.82
14 July 2000 2.05 5.72
21 July 2000 2.02 5.80
28 July 2000 2.02 5.84
4 August 2000 2.04 6.04
11 August 2000 2.03 5.99
18 August 2000 2.03 6.02
25 August 2000 2.04 6.03
1 September 2000 2.05 5.87
8 September 2000 2.03 5.71
15 September 2000 2.04 5.67
22 September 2000 2.02 5.91
29 September 2000 1.99 6.03
6 October 2000 2.04 6.16
13 October 2000 2.07 6.48
20 October 2000 2.11 6.81
27 October 2000 2.14 6.81
3 November 2000 2.09 6.80
10 November 2000 2.08 6.83
17 November 2000 2.14 7.10
24 November 2000 2.17 7.38
1 December 2000 2.24 7.94
8 December 2000 2.24 7.95
15 December 2000 2.22 7.32
22 December 2000 2.21 7.82
29 December 2000 2.20 7.71
5 January 2001 2.21 7.55
12 January 2001 2.21 6.84
19 January 2001 2.15 6.78
26 January 2001 2.12 6.57
2 February 2001 2.10 6.39
9 February 2001 2.08 6.30
16 February 2001 2.05 6.10
23 February 2001 2.12 6.26
2 March 2001 2.11 6.24
9 March 2001 2.12 6.15
16 March 2001 2.12 6.51
23 March 2001 2.15 6.80
30 March 2001 2.12 6.64
6 April 2001 2.14 7.07
13 April 2001 2.15 6.78
20 April 2001 2.13 6.65
27 April 2001 2.07 6.59
4 May 2001 1.97 6.33
11 May 2001 1.99 6.14
18 May 2001 1.92 6.27
25 May 2001 1.92 6.17
1 June 2001 1.90 6.09
8 June 2001 1.87 6.19
15 June 2001 1.89 6.32
22 June 2001 1.94 6.60
29 June 2001 1.92 6.36
6 July 2001 1.95 6.34
13 July 2001 1.97 6.38
20 July 2001 1.98 6.52
27 July 2001 1.98 6.56
3 August 2001 1.92 6.16
10 August 2001 1.92 6.28
17 August 2001 1.93 6.46
24 August 2001 1.96 6.37
31 August 2001 1.97 6.20
7 September 2001 1.97 6.31
14 September 2001 1.97 8.50
21 September 2001 2.21 7.15
28 September 2001 2.20 7.71
5 October 2001 2.17 7.40
12 October 2001 2.16 6.92
19 October 2001 2.16 6.87
26 October 2001 2.19 6.84
2 November 2001 2.26 6.60
9 November 2001 2.27 6.50
16 November 2001 2.18 5.88
23 November 2001 2.07 5.66
30 November 2001 2.03 5.64
7 December 2001 1.98 5.39
14 December 2001 2.00 5.73
21 December 2001 2.02 5.84
28 December 2001 1.96 5.75
4 January 2002 2.05 5.37
11 January 2002 2.11 5.61
18 January 2002 2.15 5.74
25 January 2002 2.10 5.60
1 February 2002 2.17 5.50
8 February 2002 2.30 5.72
15 February 2002 2.29 5.81
22 February 2002 2.36 5.93
1 March 2002 2.26 5.55
8 March 2002 2.15 4.97
15 March 2002 2.19 4.91
22 March 2002 2.17 4.83
29 March 2002 2.17 4.93
5 April 2002 2.18 5.13
12 April 2002 2.21 5.22
19 April 2002 2.18 5.04
26 April 2002 2.24 5.28
3 May 2002 2.35 4.94
10 May 2002 2.37 5.03
17 May 2002 2.31 5.18
24 May 2002 2.34 5.26
31 May 2002 2.12 5.46
7 June 2002 2.12 5.44
14 June 2002 2.20 5.90
21 June 2002 2.31 6.27
28 June 2002 2.48 6.72
5 July 2002 2.51 6.13
12 July 2002 2.49 6.43
19 July 2002 2.59 6.51
26 July 2002 2.78 7.09
2 August 2002 2.75 7.12
9 August 2002 2.88 7.30
16 August 2002 2.89 7.30
23 August 2002 2.71 7.07
30 August 2002 2.72 6.99
6 September 2002 2.78 7.13
13 September 2002 2.78 8.88
20 September 2002 2.80 7.43
27 September 2002 2.89 7.66
4 October 2002 2.89 7.92
11 October 2002 3.14 8.23
18 October 2002 3.14 7.84
25 October 2002 3.11 7.74
1 November 2002 2.98 7.55
8 November 2002 2.82 7.48
15 November 2002 2.76 7.08
22 November 2002 2.54 6.74
29 November 2002 2.54 6.57
6 December 2002 2.50 7.41
13 December 2002 2.51 6.70
20 December 2002 2.39 6.74
27 December 2002 2.40 6.85
3 January 2003 2.36 6.43
10 January 2003 2.25 5.93
17 January 2003 2.33 6.07
24 January 2003 2.38 6.17
31 January 2003 2.36 6.17
7 February 2003 2.32 6.25
14 February 2003 2.36 6.42
21 February 2003 2.33 6.31
28 February 2003 2.29 6.30
7 March 2003 2.32 6.38
14 March 2003 2.31 6.23
21 March 2003 2.22 5.77
28 March 2003 2.13 5.80
4 April 2003 2.06 5.45
11 April 2003 2.05 5.46
18 April 2003 1.99 5.38
25 April 2003 1.85 5.13
2 May 2003 1.81 4.87
9 May 2003 1.76 5.15
16 May 2003 1.81 5.33
23 May 2003 1.85 5.60
30 May 2003 1.82 5.54
6 June 2003 1.78 5.26
13 June 2003 1.77 5.36
20 June 2003 1.71 5.01
27 June 2003 1.72 4.94
4 July 2003 1.71 4.89
11 July 2003 1.67 4.84
18 July 2003 1.62 4.59
25 July 2003 1.59 4.45
1 August 2003 1.63 4.54
8 August 2003 1.66 4.87
15 August 2003 1.66 4.75
22 August 2003 1.61 4.48
29 August 2003 1.60 4.34
5 September 2003 1.60 4.30
12 September 2003 1.57 4.31
19 September 2003 1.50 4.27
26 September 2003 1.53 4.41
3 October 2003 1.52 4.16
10 October 2003 1.49 4.03
17 October 2003 1.41 3.81
24 October 2003 1.46 4.02
31 October 2003 1.43 3.88
7 November 2003 1.41 3.71
14 November 2003 1.39 3.91
21 November 2003 1.40 3.93
28 November 2003 1.37 3.72
5 December 2003 1.33 3.62
12 December 2003 1.35 3.58
19 December 2003 1.31 3.63
26 December 2003 1.32 3.61
2 January 2004 1.30 3.38
9 January 2004 1.27 3.41
16 January 2004 1.26 3.41
23 January 2004 1.25 3.31
30 January 2004 1.28 3.45
6 February 2004 1.30 3.68
13 February 2004 1.29 3.64
20 February 2004 1.31 3.61
27 February 2004 1.33 3.73
5 March 2004 1.33 3.81
12 March 2004 1.35 3.89
19 March 2004 1.37 3.92
26 March 2004 1.38 3.90
2 April 2004 1.33 3.64
9 April 2004 1.30 3.56
16 April 2004 1.29 3.47
23 April 2004 1.27 3.38
30 April 2004 1.28 3.40
7 May 2004 1.33 3.43
14 May 2004 1.37 3.77
21 May 2004 1.38 3.70
28 May 2004 1.37 3.68
4 June 2004 1.37 3.58
11 June 2004 1.35 3.56
18 June 2004 1.35 3.59
25 June 2004 1.35 3.59
2 July 2004 1.36 3.72
9 July 2004 1.38 3.63
16 July 2004 1.34 3.64
23 July 2004 1.33 3.57
30 July 2004 1.32 3.57
6 August 2004 1.37 3.77
13 August 2004 1.35 3.76
20 August 2004 1.35 3.66
27 August 2004 1.32 3.60
3 September 2004 1.31 3.53
10 September 2004 1.28 3.55
17 September 2004 1.28 3.54
24 September 2004 1.26 3.59
1 October 2004 1.24 3.49
8 October 2004 1.21 3.44
15 October 2004 1.21 3.48
22 October 2004 1.22 3.55
29 October 2004 1.18 3.37
5 November 2004 1.14 3.11
12 November 2004 1.14 3.14
19 November 2004 1.11 3.10
26 November 2004 1.10 3.07
3 December 2004 1.09 3.07
10 December 2004 1.07 3.13
17 December 2004 1.06 3.08
24 December 2004 1.05 3.06
31 December 2004 1.05 3.06
7 January 2005 1.06 3.02
14 January 2005 1.08 3.17
21 January 2005 1.08 3.27
28 January 2005 1.06 3.23
4 February 2005 1.03 3.19
11 February 2005 1.03 3.11
18 February 2005 1.00 2.93
25 February 2005 1.00 2.90
4 March 2005 0.97 2.86
11 March 2005 0.98 2.70
18 March 2005 1.03 2.90
25 March 2005 1.08 3.04
1 April 2005 1.15 3.34
8 April 2005 1.14 3.20
15 April 2005 1.21 3.60
22 April 2005 1.20 3.56
29 April 2005 1.24 3.82
6 May 2005 1.22 3.89
13 May 2005 1.27 4.15
20 May 2005 1.28 4.17
27 May 2005 1.23 3.92
3 June 2005 1.20 3.80
10 June 2005 1.23 3.84
17 June 2005 1.23 3.78
24 June 2005 1.25 3.93
1 July 2005 1.23 3.73
8 July 2005 1.24 3.67
15 July 2005 1.20 3.47
22 July 2005 1.18 3.40
29 July 2005 1.16 3.34
5 August 2005 1.16 3.32
12 August 2005 1.19 3.43
19 August 2005 1.18 3.48
26 August 2005 1.15 3.46
2 September 2005 1.20 3.70
9 September 2005 1.22 3.62
16 September 2005 1.21 3.49
23 September 2005 1.23 3.63
30 September 2005 1.21 3.60
7 October 2005 1.23 3.69
14 October 2005 1.28 3.73
21 October 2005 1.28 3.67
28 October 2005 1.28 3.64
4 November 2005 1.26 3.51
11 November 2005 1.27 3.62
18 November 2005 1.30 3.82
25 November 2005 1.30 3.83
2 December 2005 1.29 3.69
9 December 2005 1.32 3.70
16 December 2005 1.32 3.75
23 December 2005 1.33 3.79
30 December 2005 1.34 3.83
6 January 2006 1.33 3.71
13 January 2006 1.34 3.78
20 January 2006 1.33 3.78
27 January 2006 1.29 3.58
3 February 2006 1.31 3.53
10 February 2006 1.30 3.53
17 February 2006 1.29 3.53
24 February 2006 1.26 3.46
3 March 2006 1.27 3.40
10 March 2006 1.28 3.37
17 March 2006 1.27 3.42
24 March 2006 1.30 3.34
31 March 2006 1.29 3.23
7 April 2006 1.30 3.16
14 April 2006 1.30 3.14
21 April 2006 1.30 3.15
28 April 2006 1.28 3.10
5 May 2006 1.25 3.04
12 May 2006 1.27 2.99
19 May 2006 1.31 3.22
26 May 2006 1.31 3.25
2 June 2006 1.35 3.31
9 June 2006 1.39 3.40
16 June 2006 1.42 3.40
23 June 2006 1.45 3.44
30 June 2006 1.44 3.44
7 July 2006 1.46 3.47
14 July 2006 1.47 3.58
21 July 2006 1.47 3.58
28 July 2006 1.47 3.61
4 August 2006 1.47 3.67
11 August 2006 1.47 3.61
18 August 2006 1.47 3.68
25 August 2006 1.47 3.70
1 September 2006 1.47 3.76
8 September 2006 1.46 3.69
15 September 2006 1.46 3.60
22 September 2006 1.48 3.80
29 September 2006 1.48 3.73
6 October 2006 1.48 3.65
13 October 2006 1.47 3.51
20 October 2006 1.45 3.52
27 October 2006 1.44 3.59
3 November 2006 1.41 3.53
10 November 2006 1.39 3.59
17 November 2006 1.40 3.57
24 November 2006 1.40 3.65
1 December 2006 1.42 3.77
8 December 2006 1.39 3.57
15 December 2006 1.40 3.55
22 December 2006 1.40 3.51
29 December 2006 1.39 3.42
5 January 2007 1.38 3.54
12 January 2007 1.38 3.40
19 January 2007 1.35 3.33
26 January 2007 1.34 3.21
2 February 2007 1.34 3.27
9 February 2007 1.32 3.21
16 February 2007 1.30 3.22
23 February 2007 1.28 3.19
2 March 2007 1.33 3.51
9 March 2007 1.34 3.37
16 March 2007 1.37 3.48
23 March 2007 1.38 3.37
30 March 2007 1.39 3.36
6 April 2007 1.40 3.33
13 April 2007 1.38 3.23
20 April 2007 1.37 3.21
27 April 2007 1.38 3.17
4 May 2007 1.38 3.25
11 May 2007 1.36 3.19
18 May 2007 1.36 3.06
25 May 2007 1.35 2.99
1 June 2007 1.36 2.92
8 June 2007 1.39 2.96
15 June 2007 1.38 2.97
22 June 2007 1.39 3.10
29 June 2007 1.42 3.32
6 July 2007 1.42 3.23
13 July 2007 1.44 3.38
20 July 2007 1.49 3.66
27 July 2007 1.72 4.42
3 August 2007 1.71 4.35
10 August 2007 1.68 4.14
17 August 2007 1.79 4.35
24 August 2007 1.81 4.27
31 August 2007 1.80 4.36
7 September 2007 1.84 4.48
14 September 2007 1.88 4.40
21 September 2007 1.81 4.01
28 September 2007 1.79 4.02
5 October 2007 1.74 3.89
12 October 2007 1.68 3.73
19 October 2007 1.72 4.17
26 October 2007 1.74 4.17
2 November 2007 1.81 4.39
9 November 2007 1.91 4.59
16 November 2007 1.99 4.80
23 November 2007 2.05 5.14
30 November 2007 2.12 5.12
7 December 2007 2.22 4.95
14 December 2007 2.22 4.86
21 December 2007 2.20 4.96
28 December 2007 2.19 5.00
4 January 2008 2.28 5.53
11 January 2008 2.39 5.76
18 January 2008 2.48 6.13
25 January 2008 2.52 6.10
1 February 2008 2.54 5.96
8 February 2008 2.60 6.17
15 February 2008 2.67 6.17
22 February 2008 2.71 6.17
29 February 2008 2.75 6.38
7 March 2008 2.87 6.45
14 March 2008 2.99 6.76
21 March 2008 3.09 6.87
28 March 2008 3.06 6.53
4 April 2008 3.01 6.45
11 April 2008 2.97 6.39
18 April 2008 2.91 5.96
25 April 2008 2.81 5.72
2 May 2008 2.64 5.54
9 May 2008 2.66 5.74
16 May 2008 2.65 5.61
23 May 2008 2.69 5.72
30 May 2008 2.65 5.56
6 June 2008 2.61 5.62
13 June 2008 2.60 5.41
20 June 2008 2.65 5.63
27 June 2008 2.80 6.09
4 July 2008 2.84 6.21
11 July 2008 2.91 6.37
18 July 2008 2.95 6.13
25 July 2008 2.95 6.12
1 August 2008 3.00 6.40
8 August 2008 3.04 6.46
15 August 2008 3.08 6.47
22 August 2008 3.13 6.55
29 August 2008 3.15 6.55
5 September 2008 3.19 6.77
12 September 2008 3.29 6.73
19 September 2008 3.58 7.15
26 September 2008 3.69 7.06
3 October 2008 4.10 8.58
10 October 2008 4.81 10.43
17 October 2008 5.12 10.38
24 October 2008 5.25 11.62
31 October 2008 5.41 11.11
7 November 2008 5.36 11.28
14 November 2008 5.45 12.12
21 November 2008 6.03 13.91
28 November 2008 6.20 14.29
5 December 2008 6.36 14.75
12 December 2008 6.51 16.52
19 December 2008 6.58 14.82
26 December 2008 6.52 13.48
2 January 2009 6.53 13.65
9 January 2009 6.04 11.56
16 January 2009 5.99 11.66
23 January 2009 5.91 12.35
30 January 2009 5.59 10.89
6 February 2009 5.38 10.72
13 February 2009 5.32 10.82
20 February 2009 5.43 10.73
27 February 2009 5.59 12.42
6 March 2009 5.60 12.86
13 March 2009 5.77 11.75
20 March 2009 5.89 13.26
27 March 2009 5.89 12.90
3 April 2009 5.80 11.13
10 April 2009 5.63 10.26
17 April 2009 5.37 10.99
24 April 2009 5.21 10.03
1 May 2009 4.78 8.61
8 May 2009 4.44 9.32
15 May 2009 4.49 10.32
22 May 2009 4.32 9.54
29 May 2009 4.04 9.23
5 June 2009 3.81 8.10
12 June 2009 3.59 7.99
19 June 2009 3.54 7.95
26 June 2009 3.58 8.30
3 July 2009 3.55 8.04
10 July 2009 3.56 8.34
17 July 2009 3.34 7.91
24 July 2009 3.15 7.42
31 July 2009 2.87 7.05
7 August 2009 2.70 6.47
14 August 2009 2.65 6.92
21 August 2009 2.82 7.04
28 August 2009 2.79 6.99
4 September 2009 2.79 6.89
11 September 2009 2.78 6.79
18 September 2009 2.63 6.21
25 September 2009 2.63 6.13
2 October 2009 2.67 6.37
9 October 2009 2.59 6.06
16 October 2009 2.58 5.94
23 October 2009 2.51 5.78
30 October 2009 2.53 5.91
6 November 2009 2.50 5.77
13 November 2009 2.47 5.77
20 November 2009 2.47 5.85
27 November 2009 2.53 6.01
4 December 2009 2.48 5.77
11 December 2009 2.33 5.54
18 December 2009 2.22 5.49
25 December 2009 2.13 5.14
1 January 2010 1.98 4.92
8 January 2010 1.85 4.66
15 January 2010 1.84 4.74
22 January 2010 1.91 4.90
25 January 2010 1.92 4.92

Middle-left panel
Reserve Bank Survey of Capital Spending Plans

  • Almost 40 percent reported plans to increase equipment spending.
  • Just under 20 percent reported plans to decrease spending.
  • Most commonly cited factors by firms planning an increase:
    • Expectation of strong sales growth
    • Need to replace IT equipment

Middle-right panel
Indicator of High-tech Spending

Diffusion index
Period NABE survey of 12-month IT capital spending plans
2003:Q2 65.0
2003:Q3 63.0
2003:Q4 68.5
2004:Q1 75.5
2004:Q2 72.0
2004:Q3 78.5
2004:Q4 75.5
2005:Q1 77.0
2005:Q2 74.5
2005:Q3 79.0
2005:Q4 73.0
2006:Q1 69.0
2006:Q2 79.0
2006:Q3 74.0
2006:Q4 74.0
2007:Q1 70.5
2007:Q2 66.5
2007:Q3 69.5
2007:Q4 62.0
2008:Q1 69.5
2008:Q2 64.5
2008:Q3 64.0
2008:Q4 56.0
2009:Q1 43.0
2009:Q2 52.5
2009:Q3 51.0
2009:Q4 66.5
2010:Q1 62.0

Note: Based on survey question on firms' plans to increase or decrease their spending on high-tech equipment in the next 12 months. [Data values for 2003:Q2 through 2005:Q4 are approximate.]

Bottom-left panel
Equipment and Software Investment

Period Percent change, annual rate
2000:Q1 18.43
2000:Q2 14.98
2000:Q3 0.95
2000:Q4 1.51
2001:Q1 -1.29
2001:Q2 -13.95
2001:Q3 -9.60
2001:Q4 -2.74
2002:Q1 -4.82
2002:Q2 -1.16
2002:Q3 3.30
2002:Q4 -7.82
2003:Q1 -1.04
2003:Q2 10.79
2003:Q3 13.08
2003:Q4 7.76
2004:Q1 -3.40
2004:Q2 13.48
2004:Q3 13.99
2004:Q4 12.23
2005:Q1 2.45
2005:Q2 8.71
2005:Q3 11.16
2005:Q4 2.27
2006:Q1 17.79
2006:Q2 2.11
2006:Q3 2.19
2006:Q4 2.75
2007:Q1 -0.47
2007:Q2 6.51
2007:Q3 2.23
2007:Q4 4.46
2008:Q1 -0.52
2008:Q2 -5.01
2008:Q3 -9.38
2008:Q4 -25.90
2009:Q1 -36.37
2009:Q2 -4.88
2009:Q3 1.53
Forecast
2009:Q4 12.37
2010:Q1 8.35
2010:Q2 13.15
2010:Q3 15.73
2010:Q4 14.36
2011:Q1 15.32
2011:Q2 14.36
2011:Q3 14.28
2011:Q4 13.74

Bottom-right panel
Real Stock of Equipment and Software

Period Average annual percent change
1975-1994 3.6
1995-2000 6.4
2001-2007 3.3
2008-2009 0.4
Forecast
2010-2011 1.2

Exhibit 6
A Closer Look at Current Labor Market Conditions

Top-left panel
Private Payrolls

Average monthly change
(thousands)
2009: Q1 -695
Q2 -425
Q3 -171
Q4 -76
2010: Q1 42
Q2 263

Top-right panel
Nonfarm Business Productivity

Chained (2005) dollars per hour
Period Actual Structural
2006:Q1 50.82 50.40
2006:Q2 50.89 50.67
2006:Q3 50.65 50.94
2006:Q4 50.94 51.21
2007:Q1 51.09 51.49
2007:Q2 51.44 51.76
2007:Q3 52.14 52.04
2007:Q4 52.39 52.32
2008:Q1 52.38 52.62
2008:Q2 52.89 52.92
2008:Q3 52.98 53.22
2008:Q4 53.19 53.52
2009:Q1 53.34 53.86
2009:Q2 54.23 54.20
2009:Q3 55.16 54.54
2009:Q4 56.00 54.89

Middle panel
Initial Unemployment Claims

Period Thousands
7 January 1978352.90
14 January 1978348.88
21 January 1978350.96
28 January 1978350.63
4 February 1978354.31
11 February 1978361.88
18 February 1978381.23
25 February 1978383.17
4 March 1978381.53
11 March 1978377.79
18 March 1978357.06
25 March 1978348.25
1 April 1978342.88
8 April 1978339.66
15 April 1978330.07
22 April 1978326.02
29 April 1978323.72
6 May 1978320.74
13 May 1978324.09
20 May 1978327.53
27 May 1978326.30
3 June 1978320.13
10 June 1978322.56
17 June 1978320.79
24 June 1978323.60
1 July 1978333.27
8 July 1978339.45
15 July 1978346.03
22 July 1978350.87
29 July 1978350.64
5 August 1978352.87
12 August 1978353.24
19 August 1978351.80
26 August 1978348.32
2 September 1978335.25
9 September 1978330.97
16 September 1978325.51
23 September 1978323.08
30 September 1978324.27
7 October 1978325.80
14 October 1978324.63
21 October 1978328.36
28 October 1978327.80
4 November 1978321.23
11 November 1978318.03
18 November 1978319.10
25 November 1978329.92
2 December 1978344.91
9 December 1978354.82
16 December 1978355.93
23 December 1978354.23
30 December 1978349.73
6 January 1979353.61
13 January 1979364.84
20 January 1979361.12
27 January 1979357.21
3 February 1979354.61
10 February 1979346.34
17 February 1979353.89
24 February 1979358.26
3 March 1979359.77
10 March 1979360.90
17 March 1979358.80
24 March 1979357.08
31 March 1979358.61
7 April 1979384.02
14 April 1979408.77
21 April 1979416.19
28 April 1979415.16
5 May 1979387.09
12 May 1979358.55
19 May 1979349.35
26 May 1979347.42
2 June 1979343.27
9 June 1979348.53
16 June 1979349.65
23 June 1979356.91
30 June 1979365.00
7 July 1979365.91
14 July 1979370.21
21 July 1979374.49
28 July 1979379.05
4 August 1979389.87
11 August 1979394.49
18 August 1979392.31
25 August 1979393.11
1 September 1979387.34
8 September 1979385.37
15 September 1979384.82
22 September 1979384.42
29 September 1979384.77
6 October 1979393.04
13 October 1979395.12
20 October 1979399.62
27 October 1979401.75
3 November 1979397.61
10 November 1979402.80
17 November 1979408.83
24 November 1979412.55
1 December 1979417.86
8 December 1979418.21
15 December 1979413.52
22 December 1979427.81
29 December 1979430.84
5 January 1980425.58
12 January 1980424.03
19 January 1980417.94
26 January 1980413.90
2 February 1980416.62
9 February 1980421.47
16 February 1980413.73
23 February 1980417.77
1 March 1980418.96
8 March 1980417.29
15 March 1980421.65
22 March 1980423.34
29 March 1980439.55
5 April 1980451.03
12 April 1980478.92
19 April 1980507.16
26 April 1980529.47
3 May 1980556.32
10 May 1980570.51
17 May 1980594.03
24 May 1980609.70
31 May 1980626.39
7 June 1980628.50
14 June 1980615.77
21 June 1980609.11
28 June 1980606.25
5 July 1980598.72
12 July 1980584.22
19 July 1980576.27
26 July 1980559.16
2 August 1980556.57
9 August 1980556.75
16 August 1980545.80
23 August 1980534.14
30 August 1980517.36
6 September 1980511.55
13 September 1980503.60
20 September 1980491.81
27 September 1980481.95
4 October 1980469.69
11 October 1980458.39
18 October 1980448.28
25 October 1980437.06
1 November 1980426.48
8 November 1980416.42
15 November 1980417.24
22 November 1980412.38
29 November 1980410.64
6 December 1980413.13
13 December 1980409.45
20 December 1980413.01
27 December 1980409.59
3 January 1981408.01
10 January 1981409.79
17 January 1981411.93
24 January 1981411.34
31 January 1981413.75
7 February 1981413.88
14 February 1981414.34
21 February 1981424.83
28 February 1981428.28
7 March 1981425.50
14 March 1981421.93
21 March 1981412.51
28 March 1981407.20
4 April 1981408.99
11 April 1981405.89
18 April 1981403.82
25 April 1981409.60
2 May 1981408.77
9 May 1981415.57
16 May 1981421.00
23 May 1981415.97
30 May 1981416.78
6 June 1981417.89
13 June 1981420.31
20 June 1981425.34
27 June 1981432.36
4 July 1981440.30
11 July 1981441.00
18 July 1981439.67
25 July 1981430.28
1 August 1981434.52
8 August 1981439.79
15 August 1981442.81
22 August 1981449.84
29 August 1981443.55
5 September 1981449.90
12 September 1981452.77
19 September 1981462.67
26 September 1981472.65
3 October 1981476.86
10 October 1981486.06
17 October 1981489.28
24 October 1981487.20
31 October 1981493.34
7 November 1981499.15
14 November 1981506.71
21 November 1981501.93
28 November 1981511.33
5 December 1981522.36
12 December 1981530.64
19 December 1981549.47
26 December 1981550.42
2 January 1982534.83
9 January 1982533.50
16 January 1982521.11
23 January 1982523.30
30 January 1982545.18
6 February 1982548.04
13 February 1982552.56
20 February 1982547.41
27 February 1982533.68
6 March 1982533.66
13 March 1982541.77
20 March 1982545.05
27 March 1982556.54
3 April 1982561.93
10 April 1982573.40
17 April 1982583.47
24 April 1982587.02
1 May 1982586.68
8 May 1982586.27
15 May 1982583.38
22 May 1982582.86
29 May 1982585.77
5 June 1982592.68
12 June 1982599.83
19 June 1982601.23
26 June 1982599.76
3 July 1982596.90
10 July 1982586.23
17 July 1982579.99
24 July 1982568.41
31 July 1982569.70
7 August 1982578.39
14 August 1982596.02
21 August 1982618.99
28 August 1982629.58
4 September 1982640.95
11 September 1982641.85
18 September 1982654.86
25 September 1982660.85
2 October 1982671.66
9 October 1982674.26
16 October 1982668.43
23 October 1982656.39
30 October 1982641.84
6 November 1982626.43
13 November 1982612.16
20 November 1982600.67
27 November 1982594.36
4 December 1982586.20
11 December 1982569.62
18 December 1982554.23
25 December 1982523.68
1 January 1983517.91
8 January 1983512.11
15 January 1983503.06
22 January 1983500.53
29 January 1983492.76
5 February 1983490.63
12 February 1983492.24
19 February 1983494.18
26 February 1983488.73
5 March 1983487.23
12 March 1983484.64
19 March 1983480.51
26 March 1983480.46
2 April 1983479.29
9 April 1983484.40
16 April 1983495.50
23 April 1983497.29
30 April 1983496.98
7 May 1983496.60
14 May 1983483.95
21 May 1983477.07
28 May 1983468.15
4 June 1983459.46
11 June 1983453.88
18 June 1983447.24
25 June 1983444.38
2 July 1983435.07
9 July 1983427.61
16 July 1983418.07
23 July 1983406.17
30 July 1983404.33
6 August 1983405.17
13 August 1983420.44
20 August 1983433.00
27 August 1983435.86
3 September 1983434.65
10 September 1983421.12
17 September 1983411.14
24 September 1983408.49
1 October 1983409.14
8 October 1983410.07
15 October 1983407.29
22 October 1983401.83
29 October 1983399.46
5 November 1983396.53
12 November 1983395.60
19 November 1983393.88
26 November 1983392.56
3 December 1983385.14
10 December 1983379.70
17 December 1983373.47
24 December 1983368.05
31 December 1983369.83
7 January 1984366.66
14 January 1984363.86
21 January 1984353.05
28 January 1984350.89
4 February 1984347.59
11 February 1984344.27
18 February 1984344.56
25 February 1984339.49
3 March 1984340.51
10 March 1984342.54
17 March 1984346.14
24 March 1984346.84
31 March 1984345.47
7 April 1984354.33
14 April 1984356.30
21 April 1984360.70
28 April 1984369.35
5 May 1984365.39
12 May 1984368.19
19 May 1984365.90
26 May 1984360.32
2 June 1984357.74
9 June 1984358.04
16 June 1984359.62
23 June 1984361.65
30 June 1984362.90
7 July 1984361.99
14 July 1984361.79
21 July 1984360.69
28 July 1984360.33
4 August 1984364.35
11 August 1984369.30
18 August 1984380.30
25 August 1984389.40
1 September 1984390.15
8 September 1984395.80
15 September 1984393.62
22 September 1984393.63
29 September 1984397.96
6 October 1984398.26
13 October 1984402.80
20 October 1984413.64
27 October 1984419.31
3 November 1984424.31
10 November 1984419.83
17 November 1984405.92
24 November 1984407.02
1 December 1984401.27
8 December 1984398.88
15 December 1984399.75
22 December 1984387.21
29 December 1984381.74
5 January 1985378.12
12 January 1985378.22
19 January 1985373.24
26 January 1985370.48
2 February 1985374.87
9 February 1985378.59
16 February 1985386.33
23 February 1985391.79
2 March 1985388.69
9 March 1985384.67
16 March 1985383.69
23 March 1985379.61
30 March 1985382.58
6 April 1985387.47
13 April 1985393.74
20 April 1985398.27
27 April 1985398.23
4 May 1985394.56
11 May 1985390.26
18 May 1985390.29
25 May 1985392.83
1 June 1985393.49
8 June 1985395.72
15 June 1985395.44
22 June 1985393.05
29 June 1985392.42
6 July 1985390.37
13 July 1985389.40
20 July 1985385.26
27 July 1985378.06
3 August 1985381.27
10 August 1985385.05
17 August 1985392.32
24 August 1985403.20
31 August 1985403.56
7 September 1985409.55
14 September 1985411.86
21 September 1985410.70
28 September 1985408.24
5 October 1985402.99
12 October 1985401.11
19 October 1985400.92
26 October 1985405.78
2 November 1985404.25
9 November 1985403.37
16 November 1985402.78
23 November 1985393.65
30 November 1985392.29
7 December 1985392.77
14 December 1985388.90
21 December 1985385.82
28 December 1985385.12
4 January 1986375.99
11 January 1986379.76
18 January 1986378.41
25 January 1986366.74
1 February 1986367.13
8 February 1986359.31
15 February 1986357.71
22 February 1986369.33
1 March 1986371.97
8 March 1986372.10
15 March 1986378.13
22 March 1986377.40
29 March 1986382.86
5 April 1986386.55
12 April 1986388.20
19 April 1986387.22
26 April 1986385.90
3 May 1986388.66
10 May 1986390.35
17 May 1986390.40
24 May 1986389.20
31 May 1986384.59
7 June 1986379.50
14 June 1986375.79
21 June 1986371.10
28 June 1986370.55
5 July 1986369.44
12 July 1986367.60
19 July 1986364.14
26 July 1986361.71
2 August 1986373.07
9 August 1986386.88
16 August 1986400.10
23 August 1986408.86
30 August 1986405.13
6 September 1986401.05
13 September 1986397.84
20 September 1986398.35
27 September 1986395.54
4 October 1986393.16
11 October 1986391.54
18 October 1986388.22
25 October 1986383.34
1 November 1986376.57
8 November 1986367.10
15 November 1986362.73
22 November 1986362.42
29 November 1986363.11
6 December 1986366.46
13 December 1986368.25
20 December 1986363.66
27 December 1986358.44
3 January 1987348.55
10 January 1987341.82
17 January 1987339.47
24 January 1987339.59
31 January 1987351.37
7 February 1987356.31
14 February 1987355.52
21 February 1987354.33
28 February 1987348.70
7 March 1987340.86
14 March 1987340.18
21 March 1987338.62
28 March 1987333.32
4 April 1987331.59
11 April 1987332.35
18 April 1987335.73
25 April 1987336.16
2 May 1987336.19
9 May 1987330.43
16 May 1987328.51
23 May 1987332.23
30 May 1987331.13
6 June 1987334.20
13 June 1987327.96
20 June 1987322.03
27 June 1987322.05
4 July 1987321.61
11 July 1987321.94
18 July 1987319.61
25 July 1987319.19
1 August 1987324.77
8 August 1987327.28
15 August 1987329.58
22 August 1987326.65
29 August 1987320.16
5 September 1987317.35
12 September 1987311.73
19 September 1987310.89
26 September 1987309.52
3 October 1987305.79
10 October 1987308.62
17 October 1987306.80
24 October 1987302.98
31 October 1987299.92
7 November 1987297.12
14 November 1987298.62
21 November 1987302.46
28 November 1987306.86
5 December 1987312.43
12 December 1987314.81
19 December 1987316.34
26 December 1987318.63
2 January 1988317.70
9 January 1988319.57
16 January 1988329.07
23 January 1988333.92
30 January 1988340.53
6 February 1988339.01
13 February 1988326.68
20 February 1988324.59
27 February 1988318.91
5 March 1988316.09
12 March 1988314.23
19 March 1988309.38
26 March 1988305.51
2 April 1988306.00
9 April 1988308.27
16 April 1988310.06
23 April 1988312.27
30 April 1988313.24
7 May 1988312.30
14 May 1988312.29
21 May 1988314.03
28 May 1988314.05
4 June 1988314.21
11 June 1988311.79
18 June 1988309.62
25 June 1988308.12
2 July 1988306.96
9 July 1988306.64
16 July 1988307.81
23 July 1988319.47
30 July 1988325.88
6 August 1988329.09
13 August 1988328.31
20 August 1988318.94
27 August 1988314.90
3 September 1988312.38
10 September 1988310.56
17 September 1988307.99
24 September 1988304.41
1 October 1988300.94
8 October 1988297.74
15 October 1988294.43
22 October 1988290.85
29 October 1988291.39
5 November 1988289.62
12 November 1988287.33
19 November 1988289.22
26 November 1988290.35
3 December 1988293.48
10 December 1988293.84
17 December 1988293.57
24 December 1988290.38
31 December 1988291.87
7 January 1989295.36
14 January 1989293.02
21 January 1989292.08
28 January 1989289.92
4 February 1989287.16
11 February 1989296.78
18 February 1989302.56
25 February 1989303.84
4 March 1989313.07
11 March 1989313.87
18 March 1989317.13
25 March 1989321.80
1 April 1989321.31
8 April 1989318.45
15 April 1989315.45
22 April 1989311.71
29 April 1989308.65
6 May 1989310.23
13 May 1989316.49
20 May 1989320.75
27 May 1989324.31
3 June 1989325.64
10 June 1989325.67
17 June 1989329.65
24 June 1989332.79
1 July 1989338.71
8 July 1989341.06
15 July 1989344.01
22 July 1989342.74
29 July 1989339.66
5 August 1989338.79
12 August 1989336.87
19 August 1989335.45
26 August 1989334.36
2 September 1989332.31
9 September 1989331.00
16 September 1989332.82
23 September 1989333.27
30 September 1989337.75
7 October 1989355.67
14 October 1989358.30
21 October 1989361.64
28 October 1989363.43
4 November 1989344.95
11 November 1989342.86
18 November 1989339.95
25 November 1989336.79
2 December 1989339.42
9 December 1989339.87
16 December 1989344.69
23 December 1989354.52
30 December 1989357.92
6 January 1990362.10
13 January 1990365.67
20 January 1990364.04
27 January 1990360.80
3 February 1990364.09
10 February 1990363.42
17 February 1990356.84
24 February 1990358.28
3 March 1990354.01
10 March 1990349.66
17 March 1990349.91
24 March 1990345.04
31 March 1990343.93
7 April 1990348.34
14 April 1990350.19
21 April 1990357.53
28 April 1990361.60
5 May 1990358.49
12 May 1990358.08
19 May 1990356.19
26 May 1990355.41
2 June 1990358.83
9 June 1990359.74
16 June 1990361.38
23 June 1990361.98
30 June 1990360.91
7 July 1990361.83
14 July 1990363.73
21 July 1990365.83
28 July 1990367.02
4 August 1990368.60
11 August 1990372.04
18 August 1990377.78
25 August 1990384.01
1 September 1990389.76
8 September 1990392.15
15 September 1990392.64
22 September 1990391.50
29 September 1990394.65
6 October 1990398.11
13 October 1990404.83
20 October 1990416.41
27 October 1990425.43
3 November 1990431.93
10 November 1990438.35
17 November 1990441.24
24 November 1990446.75
1 December 1990452.08
8 December 1990452.49
15 December 1990452.61
22 December 1990455.57
29 December 1990456.22
5 January 1991447.73
12 January 1991445.26
19 January 1991437.93
26 January 1991439.95
2 February 1991456.83
9 February 1991467.50
16 February 1991474.76
23 February 1991484.10
2 March 1991485.48
9 March 1991490.17
16 March 1991496.08
23 March 1991498.62
30 March 1991501.34
6 April 1991489.64
13 April 1991484.35
20 April 1991476.46
27 April 1991467.09
4 May 1991466.73
11 May 1991459.07
18 May 1991451.61
25 May 1991446.80
1 June 1991442.15
8 June 1991440.90
15 June 1991436.18
22 June 1991431.24
29 June 1991427.72
6 July 1991423.02
13 July 1991420.83
20 July 1991417.25
27 July 1991418.57
3 August 1991422.62
10 August 1991426.74
17 August 1991432.83
24 August 1991433.35
31 August 1991430.15
7 September 1991427.04
14 September 1991423.23
21 September 1991421.62
28 September 1991424.61
5 October 1991424.42
12 October 1991426.25
19 October 1991426.18
26 October 1991422.68
2 November 1991428.41
9 November 1991435.55
16 November 1991440.69
23 November 1991445.73
30 November 1991445.05
7 December 1991450.47
14 December 1991459.34
21 December 1991457.33
28 December 1991456.62
4 January 1992445.85
11 January 1992437.09
18 January 1992439.02
25 January 1992438.90
1 February 1992440.96
8 February 1992442.39
15 February 1992443.01
22 February 1992441.84
29 February 1992442.73
7 March 1992436.60
14 March 1992434.40
21 March 1992435.45
28 March 1992429.49
4 April 1992427.23
11 April 1992421.23
18 April 1992417.18
25 April 1992418.12
2 May 1992422.90
9 May 1992423.81
16 May 1992421.44
23 May 1992418.94
30 May 1992413.97
6 June 1992413.87
13 June 1992415.37
20 June 1992416.80
27 June 1992418.99
4 July 1992416.77
11 July 1992413.79
18 July 1992406.94
25 July 1992442.86
1 August 1992446.83
8 August 1992446.19
15 August 1992448.39
22 August 1992406.87
29 August 1992402.98
5 September 1992405.50
12 September 1992409.16
19 September 1992416.56
26 September 1992416.94
3 October 1992412.50
10 October 1992402.14
17 October 1992391.71
24 October 1992381.11
31 October 1992372.74
7 November 1992372.60
14 November 1992370.52
21 November 1992368.00
28 November 1992362.00
5 December 1992356.11
12 December 1992351.52
19 December 1992345.74
26 December 1992338.71
2 January 1993336.37
9 January 1993335.13
16 January 1993339.72
23 January 1993346.90
30 January 1993346.86
6 February 1993338.25
13 February 1993330.61
20 February 1993333.14
27 February 1993338.43
6 March 1993347.01
13 March 1993353.22
20 March 1993349.89
27 March 1993350.99
3 April 1993353.77
10 April 1993355.46
17 April 1993358.79
24 April 1993354.72
1 May 1993349.21
8 May 1993345.76
15 May 1993344.22
22 May 1993342.25
29 May 1993343.77
5 June 1993344.73
12 June 1993344.21
19 June 1993344.96
26 June 1993342.67
3 July 1993340.41
10 July 1993333.19
17 July 1993330.73
24 July 1993349.57
31 July 1993355.10
7 August 1993363.13
14 August 1993364.22
21 August 1993345.89
28 August 1993341.05
4 September 1993338.03
11 September 1993336.37
18 September 1993337.34
25 September 1993338.92
2 October 1993338.54
9 October 1993344.21
16 October 1993347.49
23 October 1993350.16
30 October 1993354.03
6 November 1993352.56
13 November 1993348.20
20 November 1993343.68
27 November 1993340.87
4 December 1993337.84
11 December 1993336.00
18 December 1993334.90
25 December 1993323.10
1 January 1994323.98
8 January 1994326.37
15 January 1994332.29
22 January 1994347.50
29 January 1994363.67
5 February 1994367.97
12 February 1994367.75
19 February 1994368.17
26 February 1994348.47
5 March 1994345.40
12 March 1994342.10
19 March 1994336.89
26 March 1994335.59
2 April 1994334.11
9 April 1994336.08
16 April 1994341.71
23 April 1994344.16
30 April 1994344.46
7 May 1994349.91
14 May 1994351.41
21 May 1994357.75
28 May 1994358.91
4 June 1994352.49
11 June 1994346.90
18 June 1994341.66
25 June 1994339.95
2 July 1994337.21
9 July 1994338.15
16 July 1994344.02
23 July 1994344.89
30 July 1994344.45
6 August 1994343.62
13 August 1994337.62
20 August 1994334.05
27 August 1994336.20
3 September 1994336.31
10 September 1994335.31
17 September 1994334.12
24 September 1994330.06
1 October 1994327.96
8 October 1994330.37
15 October 1994332.69
22 October 1994333.95
29 October 1994334.14
5 November 1994330.92
12 November 1994329.39
19 November 1994328.41
26 November 1994328.00
3 December 1994326.87
10 December 1994326.98
17 December 1994327.99
24 December 1994324.24
31 December 1994323.07
7 January 1995325.15
14 January 1995329.46
21 January 1995332.07
28 January 1995333.27
4 February 1995329.87
11 February 1995330.07
18 February 1995334.51
25 February 1995337.54
4 March 1995341.16
11 March 1995340.94
18 March 1995341.12
25 March 1995340.10
1 April 1995339.26
8 April 1995339.18
15 April 1995342.20
22 April 1995346.49
29 April 1995353.84
6 May 1995358.20
13 May 1995360.92
20 May 1995367.85
27 May 1995370.16
3 June 1995369.73
10 June 1995369.94
17 June 1995370.37
24 June 1995366.42
1 July 1995364.61
8 July 1995365.87
15 July 1995368.59
22 July 1995376.62
29 July 1995375.71
5 August 1995370.36
12 August 1995361.28
19 August 1995354.12
26 August 1995356.04
2 September 1995357.13
9 September 1995361.72
16 September 1995365.37
23 September 1995363.82
30 September 1995363.69
7 October 1995364.42
14 October 1995362.58
21 October 1995365.76
28 October 1995371.36
4 November 1995372.90
11 November 1995373.19
18 November 1995376.59
25 November 1995377.14
2 December 1995375.34
9 December 1995369.36
16 December 1995367.82
23 December 1995366.55
30 December 1995362.96
6 January 1996366.60
13 January 1996356.56
20 January 1996366.88
27 January 1996373.94
3 February 1996377.18
10 February 1996390.65
17 February 1996382.59
24 February 1996377.19
2 March 1996375.90
9 March 1996369.51
16 March 1996369.83
23 March 1996385.04
30 March 1996391.22
6 April 1996393.03
13 April 1996386.16
20 April 1996371.74
27 April 1996359.22
4 May 1996351.72
11 May 1996350.53
18 May 1996344.61
25 May 1996344.55
1 June 1996345.01
8 June 1996344.69
15 June 1996344.09
22 June 1996343.70
29 June 1996342.83
6 July 1996340.53
13 July 1996341.57
20 July 1996339.15
27 July 1996336.73
3 August 1996332.89
10 August 1996329.04
17 August 1996330.25
24 August 1996332.77
31 August 1996333.36
7 September 1996333.75
14 September 1996334.17
21 September 1996337.77
28 September 1996342.69
5 October 1996343.23
12 October 1996342.29
19 October 1996338.20
26 October 1996339.04
2 November 1996338.70
9 November 1996336.92
16 November 1996338.51
23 November 1996337.35
30 November 1996336.85
7 December 1996343.92
14 December 1996346.58
21 December 1996347.26
28 December 1996353.54
4 January 1997351.52
11 January 1997344.41
18 January 1997343.30
25 January 1997339.24
1 February 1997335.68
8 February 1997333.47
15 February 1997325.35
22 February 1997320.77
1 March 1997317.71
8 March 1997318.29
15 March 1997319.74
22 March 1997317.91
29 March 1997318.86
5 April 1997320.82
12 April 1997323.73
19 April 1997324.12
26 April 1997327.29
3 May 1997331.54
10 May 1997328.40
17 May 1997329.72
24 May 1997324.45
31 May 1997319.27
7 June 1997322.17
14 June 1997325.44
21 June 1997325.30
28 June 1997325.55
5 July 1997329.70
12 July 1997328.08
19 July 1997324.49
26 July 1997320.28
2 August 1997313.75
9 August 1997314.01
16 August 1997324.50
23 August 1997329.80
30 August 1997332.79
6 September 1997328.81
13 September 1997321.60
20 September 1997319.07
27 September 1997315.39
4 October 1997314.94
11 October 1997312.66
18 October 1997312.98
25 October 1997310.27
1 November 1997310.68
8 November 1997311.43
15 November 1997313.23
22 November 1997313.86
29 November 1997315.09
6 December 1997317.21
13 December 1997316.55
20 December 1997316.96
27 December 1997313.09
3 January 1998311.88
10 January 1998313.94
17 January 1998321.46
24 January 1998322.55
31 January 1998323.40
7 February 1998318.57
14 February 1998313.68
21 February 1998318.81
28 February 1998319.12
7 March 1998318.35
14 March 1998317.78
21 March 1998316.16
28 March 1998314.94
4 April 1998315.92
11 April 1998312.18
18 April 1998311.24
25 April 1998311.10
2 May 1998309.12
9 May 1998309.75
16 May 1998309.10
23 May 1998308.60
30 May 1998313.02
6 June 1998312.96
13 June 1998314.58
20 June 1998324.50
27 June 1998337.99
4 July 1998352.07
11 July 1998351.82
18 July 1998343.41
25 July 1998333.07
1 August 1998324.13
8 August 1998323.18
15 August 1998321.30
22 August 1998313.27
29 August 1998309.05
5 September 1998308.09
12 September 1998307.19
19 September 1998307.94
26 September 1998303.97
3 October 1998301.39
10 October 1998304.45
17 October 1998307.67
24 October 1998311.36
31 October 1998312.84
7 November 1998312.72
14 November 1998316.52
21 November 1998315.41
28 November 1998315.86
5 December 1998318.28
12 December 1998311.27
19 December 1998309.47
26 December 1998315.87
2 January 1999317.16
9 January 1999327.00
16 January 1999337.43
23 January 1999331.36
30 January 1999324.90
6 February 1999311.35
13 February 1999304.59
20 February 1999302.25
27 February 1999301.17
6 March 1999303.53
13 March 1999302.70
20 March 1999303.42
27 March 1999302.69
3 April 1999305.10
10 April 1999307.70
17 April 1999310.01
24 April 1999308.22
1 May 1999304.72
8 May 1999302.43
15 May 1999299.11
22 May 1999301.07
29 May 1999302.98
5 June 1999301.42
12 June 1999298.81
19 June 1999297.22
26 June 1999294.23
3 July 1999290.04
10 July 1999289.49
17 July 1999293.77
24 July 1999297.49
31 July 1999300.88
7 August 1999302.51
14 August 1999298.26
21 August 1999293.16
28 August 1999290.55
4 September 1999289.34
11 September 1999286.65
18 September 1999285.51
25 September 1999289.57
2 October 1999294.34
9 October 1999296.70
16 October 1999298.09
23 October 1999291.69
30 October 1999285.84
6 November 1999283.74
13 November 1999282.19
20 November 1999281.21
27 November 1999281.80
4 December 1999282.97
11 December 1999280.88
18 December 1999283.51
25 December 1999278.57
1 January 2000278.34
8 January 2000284.81
15 January 2000285.44
22 January 2000289.54
29 January 2000289.33
5 February 2000292.79
12 February 2000295.48
19 February 2000295.18
26 February 2000293.90
4 March 2000287.32
11 March 2000279.76
18 March 2000276.59
25 March 2000274.58
1 April 2000269.75
8 April 2000269.19
15 April 2000266.29
22 April 2000266.65
29 April 2000272.85
6 May 2000279.08
13 May 2000283.30
20 May 2000284.79
27 May 2000282.06
3 June 2000281.31
10 June 2000283.41
17 June 2000286.97
24 June 2000290.96
1 July 2000288.87
8 July 2000291.09
15 July 2000293.48
22 July 2000294.48
29 July 2000298.71
5 August 2000301.91
12 August 2000304.89
19 August 2000309.24
26 August 2000312.60
2 September 2000311.49
9 September 2000309.94
16 September 2000308.29
23 September 2000302.44
30 September 2000300.19
7 October 2000300.05
14 October 2000297.15
21 October 2000298.93
28 October 2000301.09
4 November 2000306.75
11 November 2000311.38
18 November 2000320.55
25 November 2000334.38
2 December 2000335.98
9 December 2000336.83
16 December 2000342.32
23 December 2000344.11
30 December 2000348.01
6 January 2001351.98
13 January 2001343.09
20 January 2001337.94
27 January 2001340.21
3 February 2001349.78
10 February 2001361.55
17 February 2001365.31
24 February 2001371.18
3 March 2001373.28
10 March 2001380.04
17 March 2001388.72
24 March 2001386.74
31 March 2001387.86
7 April 2001389.25
14 April 2001386.92
21 April 2001392.51
28 April 2001396.85
5 May 2001392.66
12 May 2001394.27
19 May 2001394.82
26 May 2001394.73
2 June 2001401.03
9 June 2001406.21
16 June 2001404.21
23 June 2001398.03
30 June 2001395.01
7 July 2001392.68
14 July 2001395.43
21 July 2001399.78
28 July 2001398.07
4 August 2001397.90
11 August 2001395.09
18 August 2001396.03
25 August 2001397.80
1 September 2001398.23
8 September 2001401.67
15 September 2001399.85
22 September 2001414.38
29 September 2001442.96
6 October 2001460.01
13 October 2001481.95
20 October 2001489.14
27 October 2001480.81
3 November 2001471.69
10 November 2001458.13
17 November 2001445.62
24 November 2001447.66
1 December 2001453.93
8 December 2001445.27
15 December 2001434.69
22 December 2001415.82
29 December 2001404.90
5 January 2002405.87
12 January 2002413.03
19 January 2002410.24
26 January 2002408.57
2 February 2002410.31
9 February 2002405.19
16 February 2002403.28
23 February 2002399.25
2 March 2002396.06
9 March 2002396.47
16 March 2002395.06
23 March 2002399.25
30 March 2002421.04
6 April 2002432.51
13 April 2002445.02
20 April 2002445.27
27 April 2002429.02
4 May 2002420.15
11 May 2002413.05
18 May 2002411.93
25 May 2002409.33
1 June 2002401.37
8 June 2002394.94
15 June 2002391.00
22 June 2002387.19
29 June 2002389.23
6 July 2002390.18
13 July 2002387.31
20 July 2002385.06
27 July 2002386.23
3 August 2002385.29
10 August 2002386.52
17 August 2002391.59
24 August 2002393.51
31 August 2002395.24
7 September 2002401.87
14 September 2002405.08
21 September 2002405.72
28 September 2002409.36
5 October 2002406.45
12 October 2002404.59
19 October 2002407.36
26 October 2002407.38
2 November 2002407.54
9 November 2002406.33
16 November 2002400.71
23 November 2002395.87
30 November 2002389.08
7 December 2002395.36
14 December 2002405.36
21 December 2002406.42
28 December 2002414.38
4 January 2003406.41
11 January 2003393.60
18 January 2003395.57
25 January 2003394.95
1 February 2003399.99
8 February 2003403.01
15 February 2003407.46
22 February 2003411.06
1 March 2003416.70
8 March 2003425.18
15 March 2003427.73
22 March 2003425.11
29 March 2003425.08
5 April 2003423.38
12 April 2003424.31
19 April 2003434.00
26 April 2003436.05
3 May 2003438.74
10 May 2003434.54
17 May 2003428.46
24 May 2003422.10
31 May 2003422.94
7 June 2003425.97
14 June 2003424.99
21 June 2003422.35
28 June 2003421.78
5 July 2003422.75
12 July 2003420.53
19 July 2003419.23
26 July 2003411.42
2 August 2003403.52
9 August 2003401.40
16 August 2003400.09
23 August 2003398.38
30 August 2003399.80
6 September 2003404.20
13 September 2003403.37
20 September 2003400.39
27 September 2003395.43
4 October 2003386.58
11 October 2003382.02
18 October 2003384.05
25 October 2003381.95
1 November 2003376.07
8 November 2003374.91
15 November 2003370.54
22 November 2003364.32
29 November 2003363.03
6 December 2003362.06
13 December 2003360.41
20 December 2003360.49
27 December 2003358.49
3 January 2004355.55
10 January 2004353.32
17 January 2004355.28
24 January 2004356.15
31 January 2004361.18
7 February 2004367.61
14 February 2004366.10
21 February 2004367.72
28 February 2004360.68
6 March 2004351.80
13 March 2004347.45
20 March 2004344.18
27 March 2004342.24
3 April 2004339.97
10 April 2004344.10
17 April 2004348.53
24 April 2004348.41
1 May 2004345.75
8 May 2004339.33
15 May 2004335.68
22 May 2004336.36
29 May 2004339.44
5 June 2004345.89
12 June 2004343.36
19 June 2004346.40
26 June 2004349.30
3 July 2004342.13
10 July 2004343.57
17 July 2004343.64
24 July 2004343.46
31 July 2004347.04
7 August 2004344.65
14 August 2004338.98
21 August 2004337.73
28 August 2004340.43
4 September 2004338.07
11 September 2004337.82
18 September 2004337.52
25 September 2004337.44
2 October 2004339.61
9 October 2004341.46
16 October 2004337.93
23 October 2004334.59
30 October 2004333.82
6 November 2004331.79
13 November 2004334.17
20 November 2004327.98
27 November 2004328.90
4 December 2004332.06
11 December 2004326.98
18 December 2004329.13
25 December 2004325.32
1 January 2005327.98
8 January 2005339.01
15 January 2005342.25
22 January 2005344.23
29 January 2005338.43
5 February 2005325.07
12 February 2005318.34
19 February 2005316.26
26 February 2005312.27
5 March 2005319.25
12 March 2005323.63
19 March 2005326.36
26 March 2005333.57
2 April 2005334.28
9 April 2005333.92
16 April 2005328.53
23 April 2005322.57
30 April 2005321.76
7 May 2005322.85
14 May 2005326.60
21 May 2005327.21
28 May 2005329.02
4 June 2005331.74
11 June 2005334.28
18 June 2005334.61
25 June 2005327.20
2 July 2005324.41
9 July 2005325.08
16 July 2005325.05
23 July 2005326.80
30 July 2005323.90
6 August 2005317.52
13 August 2005316.63
20 August 2005315.96
27 August 2005316.62
3 September 2005320.66
10 September 2005346.57
17 September 2005373.22
24 September 2005383.41
1 October 2005397.54
8 October 2005387.37
15 October 2005368.47
22 October 2005359.77
29 October 2005344.25
5 November 2005329.88
12 November 2005320.02
19 November 2005319.41
26 November 2005315.88
3 December 2005314.45
10 December 2005318.65
17 December 2005315.70
24 December 2005318.14
31 December 2005314.27
7 January 2006312.50
14 January 2006305.93
21 January 2006299.08
28 January 2006293.62
4 February 2006286.17
11 February 2006289.19
18 February 2006288.07
25 February 2006290.85
4 March 2006294.67
11 March 2006297.48
18 March 2006301.98
25 March 2006302.70
1 April 2006300.26
8 April 2006298.55
15 April 2006297.41
22 April 2006300.77
29 April 2006307.65
6 May 2006319.20
13 May 2006328.97
20 May 2006332.04
27 May 2006334.72
3 June 2006325.22
10 June 2006315.63
17 June 2006313.09
24 June 2006308.24
1 July 2006310.47
8 July 2006320.43
15 July 2006321.88
22 July 2006320.67
29 July 2006319.38
5 August 2006314.30
12 August 2006313.51
19 August 2006316.36
26 August 2006317.37
2 September 2006316.81
9 September 2006317.11
16 September 2006318.47
23 September 2006319.34
30 September 2006317.34
7 October 2006317.73
14 October 2006313.07
21 October 2006311.48
28 October 2006316.42
4 November 2006316.89
11 November 2006318.12
18 November 2006320.26
25 November 2006323.85
2 December 2006325.13
9 December 2006324.59
16 December 2006322.65
23 December 2006316.21
30 December 2006319.53
6 January 2007322.82
13 January 2007317.82
20 January 2007322.64
27 January 2007315.60
3 February 2007312.01
10 February 2007321.42
17 February 2007318.05
24 February 2007320.58
3 March 2007323.87
10 March 2007317.64
17 March 2007313.87
24 March 2007309.88
31 March 2007307.00
7 April 2007313.35
14 April 2007318.46
21 April 2007323.61
28 April 2007322.57
5 May 2007314.67
12 May 2007307.89
19 May 2007305.58
26 May 2007307.74
2 June 2007311.79
9 June 2007315.28
16 June 2007318.39
23 June 2007319.60
30 June 2007320.97
7 July 2007321.50
14 July 2007318.75
21 July 2007317.10
28 July 2007313.26
4 August 2007312.65
11 August 2007314.01
18 August 2007317.99
25 August 2007324.60
1 September 2007325.52
8 September 2007326.05
15 September 2007323.32
22 September 2007315.69
29 September 2007315.66
6 October 2007313.96
13 October 2007319.25
20 October 2007327.26
27 October 2007330.06
3 November 2007332.59
10 November 2007330.91
17 November 2007329.21
24 November 2007332.78
1 December 2007335.98
8 December 2007334.99
15 December 2007338.77
22 December 2007339.10
29 December 2007341.52
5 January 2008344.29
12 January 2008336.71
19 January 2008329.83
26 January 2008334.34
2 February 2008336.64
9 February 2008341.82
16 February 2008347.66
23 February 2008343.75
1 March 2008342.91
8 March 2008346.23
15 March 2008352.65
22 March 2008356.53
29 March 2008367.84
5 April 2008370.33
12 April 2008370.92
19 April 2008367.36
26 April 2008364.50
3 May 2008368.01
10 May 2008369.39
17 May 2008374.60
24 May 2008374.60
31 May 2008374.26
7 June 2008377.46
14 June 2008381.43
21 June 2008385.02
28 June 2008393.71
5 July 2008388.64
12 July 2008387.84
19 July 2008392.93
26 July 2008402.17
2 August 2008422.88
9 August 2008436.33
16 August 2008442.74
23 August 2008440.50
30 August 2008440.44
6 September 2008442.15
13 September 2008447.30
20 September 2008460.41
27 September 2008470.39
4 October 2008478.07
11 October 2008480.50
18 October 2008478.85
25 October 2008477.66
1 November 2008480.13
8 November 2008490.17
15 November 2008503.78
22 November 2008512.39
29 November 2008519.72
6 December 2008530.53
13 December 2008535.10
20 December 2008546.26
27 December 2008544.02
3 January 2009527.94
10 January 2009523.68
17 January 2009526.29
24 January 2009546.77
31 January 2009580.89
7 February 2009601.51
14 February 2009615.62
21 February 2009632.16
28 February 2009636.78
7 March 2009646.84
14 March 2009649.93
21 March 2009650.15
28 March 2009658.03
4 April 2009658.70
11 April 2009651.03
18 April 2009647.99
25 April 2009638.20
2 May 2009624.39
9 May 2009631.91
16 May 2009629.78
23 May 2009627.32
30 May 2009632.53
6 June 2009623.08
13 June 2009617.06
20 June 2009618.17
27 June 2009616.12
4 July 2009606.95
11 July 2009584.98
18 July 2009567.27
25 July 2009560.14
1 August 2009556.55
8 August 2009565.73
15 August 2009571.16
22 August 2009567.59
29 August 2009572.99
5 September 2009571.97
12 September 2009564.27
19 September 2009554.05
26 September 2009548.47
3 October 2009540.25
10 October 2009532.88
17 October 2009532.25
24 October 2009526.90
31 October 2009524.42
7 November 2009520.51
14 November 2009512.93
21 November 2009495.59
28 November 2009480.53
5 December 2009473.11
12 December 2009467.93
19 December 2009465.82
26 December 2009460.24
2 January 2010449.90
9 January 2010441.32
16 January 2010448.23

Note: Vertical shading represents NBER recession dates: January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, and March 2001-November 2001. A vertical line indicates the NBER peak in December 2007. Four-week moving average. Range for unchanged employment is approximately 350 to 450 thousand.

Bottom-left panel
Workweek and Temporary Employment

Period Workweek
(Hours*)		 Temp. help employment
(Millions)
January 1990 34.37 1.16
February 1990 34.33 1.16
March 1990 34.37 1.17
April 1990 34.33 1.16
May 1990 34.33 1.16
June 1990 34.33 1.16
July 1990 34.33 1.16
August 1990 34.30 1.16
September 1990 34.23 1.16
October 1990 34.17 1.14
November 1990 34.17 1.14
December 1990 34.17 1.13
January 1991 34.17 1.14
February 1991 34.13 1.13
March 1991 34.07 1.12
April 1991 34.03 1.11
May 1991 34.00 1.11
June 1991 34.03 1.11
July 1991 34.07 1.11
August 1991 34.10 1.12
September 1991 34.10 1.13
October 1991 34.13 1.13
November 1991 34.13 1.13
December 1991 34.13 1.14
January 1992 34.10 1.15
February 1992 34.10 1.16
March 1992 34.10 1.17
April 1992 34.17 1.18
May 1992 34.20 1.20
June 1992 34.20 1.21
July 1992 34.17 1.21
August 1992 34.17 1.22
September 1992 34.23 1.23
October 1992 34.23 1.25
November 1992 34.23 1.26
December 1992 34.20 1.29
January 1993 34.23 1.30
February 1993 34.27 1.30
March 1993 34.23 1.32
April 1993 34.27 1.34
May 1993 34.27 1.36
June 1993 34.33 1.38
July 1993 34.33 1.40
August 1993 34.33 1.41
September 1993 34.37 1.43
October 1993 34.37 1.46
November 1993 34.40 1.47
December 1993 34.40 1.48
January 1994 34.40 1.50
February 1994 34.33 1.53
March 1994 34.37 1.57
April 1994 34.40 1.59
May 1994 34.50 1.60
June 1994 34.50 1.63
July 1994 34.53 1.65
August 1994 34.53 1.66
September 1994 34.50 1.69
October 1994 34.47 1.70
November 1994 34.47 1.72
December 1994 34.50 1.72
January 1995 34.50 1.74
February 1995 34.47 1.74
March 1995 34.43 1.74
April 1995 34.37 1.73
May 1995 34.30 1.72
June 1995 34.27 1.72
July 1995 34.27 1.72
August 1995 34.30 1.74
September 1995 34.30 1.78
October 1995 34.30 1.77
November 1995 34.30 1.77
December 1995 34.27 1.78
January 1996 34.10 1.75
February 1996 34.10 1.79
March 1996 34.13 1.79
April 1996 34.27 1.81
May 1996 34.27 1.83
June 1996 34.30 1.85
July 1996 34.33 1.87
August 1996 34.37 1.88
September 1996 34.37 1.89
October 1996 34.40 1.88
November 1996 34.40 1.91
December 1996 34.40 1.93
January 1997 34.37 1.95
February 1997 34.40 1.97
March 1997 34.43 2.00
April 1997 34.53 2.03
May 1997 34.57 2.05
June 1997 34.53 2.06
July 1997 34.50 2.08
August 1997 34.50 2.07
September 1997 34.57 2.08
October 1997 34.57 2.11
November 1997 34.57 2.14
December 1997 34.57 2.17
January 1998 34.60 2.18
February 1998 34.60 2.19
March 1998 34.57 2.19
April 1998 34.53 2.20
May 1998 34.50 2.22
June 1998 34.47 2.25
July 1998 34.47 2.25
August 1998 34.47 2.27
September 1998 34.47 2.24
October 1998 34.47 2.28
November 1998 34.47 2.31
December 1998 34.50 2.33
January 1999 34.47 2.36
February 1999 34.43 2.39
March 1999 34.37 2.40
April 1999 34.37 2.42
May 1999 34.37 2.44
June 1999 34.40 2.45
July 1999 34.40 2.48
August 1999 34.40 2.48
September 1999 34.40 2.47
October 1999 34.40 2.55
November 1999 34.40 2.57
December 1999 34.40 2.61
January 2000 34.40 2.62
February 2000 34.40 2.62
March 2000 34.37 2.64
April 2000 34.37 2.68
May 2000 34.33 2.65
June 2000 34.33 2.65
July 2000 34.30 2.65
August 2000 34.27 2.64
September 2000 34.23 2.65
October 2000 34.23 2.63
November 2000 34.23 2.64
December 2000 34.17 2.59
January 2001 34.13 2.56
February 2001 34.07 2.53
March 2001 34.10 2.48
April 2001 34.03 2.40
May 2001 34.03 2.38
June 2001 34.00 2.34
July 2001 34.00 2.32
August 2001 33.97 2.30
September 2001 33.90 2.25
October 2001 33.80 2.21
November 2001 33.77 2.16
December 2001 33.80 2.14
January 2002 33.83 2.15
February 2002 33.83 2.16
March 2002 33.83 2.19
April 2002 33.87 2.21
May 2002 33.90 2.22
June 2002 33.90 2.22
July 2002 33.87 2.20
August 2002 33.87 2.23
September 2002 33.87 2.20
October 2002 33.87 2.20
November 2002 33.83 2.18
December 2002 33.80 2.17
January 2003 33.80 2.19
February 2003 33.73 2.18
March 2003 33.73 2.17
April 2003 33.67 2.14
May 2003 33.70 2.18
June 2003 33.63 2.21
July 2003 33.63 2.26
August 2003 33.63 2.25
September 2003 33.63 2.26
October 2003 33.67 2.27
November 2003 33.67 2.28
December 2003 33.67 2.30
January 2004 33.67 2.29
February 2004 33.70 2.30
March 2004 33.73 2.31
April 2004 33.73 2.35
May 2004 33.73 2.38
June 2004 33.70 2.38
July 2004 33.70 2.39
August 2004 33.67 2.41
September 2004 33.70 2.42
October 2004 33.70 2.47
November 2004 33.70 2.46
December 2004 33.73 2.45
January 2005 33.73 2.46
February 2005 33.73 2.48
March 2005 33.70 2.49
April 2005 33.73 2.50
May 2005 33.73 2.50
June 2005 33.73 2.53
July 2005 33.70 2.54
August 2005 33.70 2.56
September 2005 33.73 2.59
October 2005 33.77 2.60
November 2005 33.80 2.63
December 2005 33.80 2.65
January 2006 33.83 2.63
February 2006 33.83 2.64
March 2006 33.83 2.64
April 2006 33.83 2.64
May 2006 33.83 2.65
June 2006 33.87 2.65
July 2006 33.87 2.64
August 2006 33.90 2.65
September 2006 33.87 2.63
October 2006 33.87 2.63
November 2006 33.87 2.63
December 2006 33.93 2.67
January 2007 33.90 2.66
February 2007 33.87 2.65
March 2007 33.83 2.65
April 2007 33.83 2.63
May 2007 33.87 2.61
June 2007 33.87 2.60
July 2007 33.87 2.58
August 2007 33.83 2.56
September 2007 33.80 2.53
October 2007 33.80 2.57
November 2007 33.80 2.57
December 2007 33.80 2.58
January 2008 33.77 2.56
February 2008 33.77 2.52
March 2008 33.77 2.49
April 2008 33.80 2.46
May 2008 33.77 2.43
June 2008 33.70 2.38
July 2008 33.63 2.35
August 2008 33.63 2.30
September 2008 33.63 2.26
October 2008 33.60 2.22
November 2008 33.50 2.13
December 2008 33.40 2.06
January 2009 33.33 1.97
February 2009 33.30 1.89
March 2009 33.23 1.84
April 2009 33.17 1.78
May 2009 33.10 1.78
June 2009 33.07 1.75
July 2009 33.07 1.75
August 2009 33.07 1.75
September 2009 33.10 1.77
October 2009 33.07 1.81
November 2009 33.10 1.87
December 2009 33.13 1.91
January 2010 33.21 ND
February 2010 33.23 ND
March 2010 33.25 ND

Note: Vertical lines [in early 1992, and mid-2003] show troughs in private employment.

* Three-month moving average.  Return to table

Bottom-right panel
Help Wanted

Index, 1980 = 100
Period Index
January 197888.00
February 197889.00
March 197891.00
April 197897.00
May 197896.00
June 197897.00
July 197896.00
August 197898.00
September 197899.00
October 1978103.00
November 1978102.00
December 1978103.00
January 1979102.00
February 1979100.00
March 1979100.00
April 1979104.00
May 1979103.00
June 1979101.00
July 1979101.00
August 1979102.00
September 1979105.00
October 1979106.00
November 1979100.00
December 197999.00
January 198097.00
February 198094.00
March 198093.00
April 198082.00
May 198076.00
June 198077.00
July 198077.00
August 198078.00
September 198081.00
October 198081.00
November 198084.00
December 198081.00
January 198180.00
February 198181.00
March 198181.00
April 198181.00
May 198180.00
June 198180.00
July 198180.00
August 198179.00
September 198175.00
October 198171.00
November 198170.00
December 198167.00
January 198267.00
February 198264.00
March 198262.00
April 198260.00
May 198259.00
June 198256.00
July 198253.00
August 198252.00
September 198249.00
October 198249.00
November 198250.00
December 198251.00
January 198352.00
February 198352.00
March 198354.00
April 198355.00
May 198360.00
June 198360.00
July 198364.00
August 198365.00
September 198367.00
October 198372.00
November 198373.00
December 198376.00
January 198478.00
February 198481.00
March 198481.00
April 198485.00
May 198486.00
June 198487.00
July 198489.00
August 198486.00
September 198488.00
October 198489.00
November 198488.00
December 198491.00
January 198589.00
February 198590.00
March 198592.00
April 198591.00
May 198592.00
June 198592.00
July 198591.00
August 198592.00
September 198593.00
October 198592.00
November 198593.00
December 198590.00
January 198691.00
February 198691.00
March 198691.00
April 198691.00
May 198690.00
June 198692.00
July 198691.00
August 198692.00
September 198693.00
October 198693.00
November 198697.00
December 198692.00
January 198791.00
February 198795.00
March 198799.00
April 198797.00
May 198799.00
June 1987100.00
July 1987100.00
August 1987104.00
September 1987103.00
October 1987104.00
November 1987106.00
December 1987101.00
January 1988102.00
February 1988102.00
March 1988104.00
April 1988102.00
May 1988105.00
June 1988102.00
July 1988104.00
August 1988104.00
September 1988100.00
October 1988104.00
November 1988102.00
December 1988104.00
January 1989104.00
February 1989103.00
March 198999.00
April 1989103.00
May 198998.00
June 198996.00
July 198996.00
August 198995.00
September 198995.00
October 198997.00
November 198994.00
December 198996.00
January 199097.00
February 199092.00
March 199090.00
April 199090.00
May 199086.00
June 199086.00
July 199085.00
August 199082.00
September 199081.00
October 199075.00
November 199071.00
December 199071.00
January 199167.00
February 199164.00
March 199163.00
April 199163.00
May 199161.00
June 199164.00
July 199161.00
August 199160.00
September 199162.00
October 199159.00
November 199160.00
December 199160.00
January 199259.00
February 199261.00
March 199264.00
April 199261.00
May 199263.00
June 199263.00
July 199261.00
August 199263.00
September 199262.00
October 199262.00
November 199266.00
December 199265.00
January 199366.00
February 199367.00
March 199366.00
April 199365.00
May 199368.00
June 199367.00
July 199368.00
August 199371.00
September 199371.00
October 199374.00
November 199374.00
December 199375.00
January 199476.00
February 199479.00
March 199480.00
April 199480.00
May 199483.00
June 199481.00
July 199485.00
August 199482.00
September 199483.00
October 199488.00
November 199487.00
December 199490.00
January 199587.00
February 199587.18
March 199585.36
April 199586.55
May 199580.69
June 199581.88
July 199586.12
August 199585.30
September 199585.50
October 199586.73
November 199583.87
December 199591.25
January 199686.34
February 199684.50
March 199686.78
April 199684.93
May 199682.04
June 199689.56
July 199684.58
August 199684.82
September 199689.26
October 199685.30
November 199691.89
December 199691.11
January 199790.32
February 199793.80
March 199793.03
April 199792.25
May 199787.17
June 199795.02
July 199792.09
August 199793.49
September 199798.18
October 199796.34
November 1997102.18
December 199795.94
January 199899.62
February 1998102.22
March 1998101.50
April 1998101.90
May 1998102.31
June 1998100.46
July 1998100.88
August 1998102.45
September 199898.31
October 199897.59
November 1998102.64
December 1998100.79
January 1999107.07
February 1999108.74
March 1999104.56
April 1999103.89
May 1999105.58
June 1999101.34
July 1999103.06
August 1999103.59
September 1999100.51
October 1999104.70
November 1999104.05
December 1999105.86
January 2000111.40
February 2000113.29
March 2000111.45
April 2000112.11
May 2000105.18
June 2000103.28
July 2000105.20
August 200099.42
September 2000102.66
October 2000102.02
November 200098.75
December 2000103.39
January 2001102.77
February 200196.77
March 200190.69
April 200188.62
May 200182.40
June 200178.86
July 200180.85
August 200174.45
September 200175.03
October 200165.63
November 200164.72
December 200168.15
January 200268.72
February 200269.29
March 200268.40
April 200270.49
May 200266.57
June 200271.74
July 200267.77
August 200263.73
September 200267.46
October 200263.34
November 200263.95
December 200262.95
January 200366.83
February 200367.50
March 200364.85
April 200362.15
May 200361.10
June 200365.17
July 200365.86
August 200364.82
September 200365.53
October 200364.46
November 200368.80
December 200369.58
January 200470.38
February 200474.94
March 200473.93
April 200472.89
May 200475.70
June 200474.66
July 200473.59
August 200474.50
September 200473.40
October 200476.39
November 200475.28
December 200480.50
January 200590.14
February 200589.16
March 200585.95
April 200587.11
May 200586.04
June 200587.88
July 200587.12
August 200587.27
September 200588.73
October 200588.45
November 200592.70
December 200592.40
January 200695.86
February 200698.06
March 200696.12
April 200694.15
May 200691.82
June 200692.54
July 200693.88
August 200692.82
September 200691.67
October 200694.84
November 200691.53
December 2006101.72
January 200799.17
February 200798.51
March 200798.73
April 2007100.94
May 200796.70
June 200795.19
July 200795.74
August 200792.63
September 200797.47
October 200794.04
November 200792.58
December 200793.10
January 200894.03
February 200893.58
March 200890.25
April 200887.70
May 200888.81
June 200887.11
July 200883.59
August 200880.26
September 200875.70
October 200873.32
November 200871.75
December 200865.55
January 200951.08
February 200955.36
March 200952.99
April 200949.56
May 200952.45
June 200951.92
July 200952.46
August 200957.53
September 200953.04
October 200952.18
November 200951.54
December 200958.08

Note: Vertical lines [at the end of 1982, in early 1992, and mid-2003] show troughs in private employment.

Three-month moving average.


Exhibit 7
Inflation

Top-left panel
Unemployment and NAIRU

Percent
Period Unemployment rate NAIRU NAIRU+EEB effects Resource slack (approximate)
[unemployment rate minus
(NAIRU+EEB effects)]
2002:Q1 5.70 5.00 5.01 0.69
2002:Q2 5.84 4.99 5.25 0.59
2002:Q3 5.73 4.98 5.20 0.53
2002:Q4 5.85 4.96 5.13 0.72
2003:Q1 5.87 4.92 5.07 0.80
2003:Q2 6.15 4.90 5.07 1.08
2003:Q3 6.10 4.88 5.06 1.04
2003:Q4 5.82 4.88 5.05 0.77
2004:Q1 5.68 4.88 4.96 0.72
2004:Q2 5.59 4.90 4.90 0.69
2004:Q3 5.43 4.87 4.87 0.56
2004:Q4 5.39 4.88 4.88 0.51
2005:Q1 5.28 4.86 4.86 0.42
2005:Q2 5.11 4.84 4.84 0.27
2005:Q3 4.97 4.86 4.86 0.11
2005:Q4 4.95 4.84 4.84 0.11
2006:Q1 4.72 4.83 4.83 -0.11
2006:Q2 4.65 4.84 4.84 -0.19
2006:Q3 4.64 4.83 4.83 -0.19
2006:Q4 4.46 4.83 4.83 -0.37
2007:Q1 4.51 4.84 4.84 -0.33
2007:Q2 4.49 4.81 4.81 -0.32
2007:Q3 4.66 4.79 4.79 -0.13
2007:Q4 4.83 4.80 4.80 0.03
2008:Q1 4.95 4.79 4.79 0.16
2008:Q2 5.31 4.76 4.76 0.55
2008:Q3 6.03 4.82 5.05 0.98
2008:Q4 6.94 4.89 5.16 1.78
2009:Q1 8.20 5.07 5.54 2.66
2009:Q2 9.27 5.20 5.80 3.47
2009:Q3 9.66 5.22 5.96 3.70
2009:Q4 10.03 5.22 6.06 3.97
Forecast
2010:Q1 10.06 5.22 6.15 3.91
2010:Q2 9.89 5.22 6.15 3.74
2010:Q3 9.71 5.22 6.14 3.57
2010:Q4 9.53 5.22 6.15 3.38
2011:Q1 9.15 5.22 6.15 3.00
2011:Q2 8.88 5.22 6.15 2.73
2011:Q3 8.57 5.22 6.15 2.42
2011:Q4 8.23 5.22 6.15 2.08

Top-right panel
Long-term Inflation Expectations

TIPS, five-to-ten years ahead
Period Percent
9 January 20022.73
16 January 20022.66
23 January 20022.61
30 January 20022.55
6 February 20022.51
13 February 20022.62
20 February 20022.59
27 February 20022.60
6 March 20022.68
13 March 20022.79
20 March 20022.87
27 March 20022.85
3 April 20022.90
10 April 20022.82
17 April 20022.80
24 April 20022.81
1 May 20022.70
8 May 20022.74
15 May 20022.86
22 May 20022.85
29 May 20022.81
5 June 20022.78
12 June 20022.74
19 June 20022.60
26 June 20022.58
3 July 20022.63
10 July 20022.56
17 July 20022.66
24 July 20022.76
31 July 20022.88
7 August 20022.91
14 August 20022.83
21 August 20022.88
28 August 20022.94
4 September 20022.80
11 September 20022.77
18 September 20022.68
25 September 20022.61
2 October 20022.57
9 October 20022.54
16 October 20022.65
23 October 20022.81
30 October 20022.82
6 November 20022.87
13 November 20022.65
20 November 20022.73
27 November 20022.84
4 December 20022.92
11 December 20022.76
18 December 20022.77
25 December 20022.74
1 January 20032.64
8 January 20032.71
15 January 20032.88
22 January 20032.83
29 January 20032.83
5 February 20032.79
12 February 20032.83
19 February 20032.83
26 February 20032.77
5 March 20032.67
12 March 20032.64
19 March 20032.61
26 March 20032.58
2 April 20032.60
9 April 20032.59
16 April 20032.53
23 April 20032.49
30 April 20032.51
7 May 20032.53
14 May 20032.50
21 May 20032.45
28 May 20032.44
4 June 20032.45
11 June 20032.40
18 June 20032.34
25 June 20032.35
2 July 20032.37
9 July 20032.39
16 July 20032.71
23 July 20032.85
30 July 20033.02
6 August 20033.11
13 August 20032.98
20 August 20033.16
27 August 20033.09
3 September 20033.05
10 September 20033.04
17 September 20032.95
24 September 20032.87
1 October 20032.80
8 October 20032.90
15 October 20033.03
22 October 20033.08
29 October 20033.19
5 November 20033.28
12 November 20033.31
19 November 20033.25
26 November 20033.12
3 December 20033.21
10 December 20033.16
17 December 20033.04
24 December 20032.96
31 December 20033.03
7 January 20043.06
14 January 20042.94
21 January 20042.83
28 January 20042.89
4 February 20042.91
11 February 20042.88
18 February 20042.84
25 February 20042.79
3 March 20042.91
10 March 20042.88
17 March 20042.81
24 March 20042.81
31 March 20042.94
7 April 20043.03
14 April 20043.06
21 April 20043.07
28 April 20042.97
5 May 20042.95
12 May 20043.12
19 May 20043.27
26 May 20043.29
2 June 20043.26
9 June 20043.22
16 June 20043.09
23 June 20043.03
30 June 20043.03
7 July 20043.07
14 July 20042.97
21 July 20042.92
28 July 20042.96
4 August 20042.97
11 August 20042.91
18 August 20042.92
25 August 20042.94
1 September 20042.89
8 September 20042.88
15 September 20042.85
22 September 20042.76
29 September 20042.71
6 October 20042.74
13 October 20042.80
20 October 20042.75
27 October 20042.65
3 November 20042.73
10 November 20042.78
17 November 20042.77
24 November 20042.79
1 December 20042.83
8 December 20042.82
15 December 20042.79
22 December 20042.88
29 December 20042.95
5 January 20052.82
12 January 20052.71
19 January 20052.69
26 January 20052.68
2 February 20052.66
9 February 20052.54
16 February 20052.57
23 February 20052.64
2 March 20052.70
9 March 20052.75
16 March 20052.80
23 March 20052.82
30 March 20052.77
6 April 20052.74
13 April 20052.72
20 April 20052.74
27 April 20052.67
4 May 20052.64
11 May 20052.65
18 May 20052.60
25 May 20052.54
1 June 20052.49
8 June 20052.46
15 June 20052.46
22 June 20052.44
29 June 20052.38
6 July 20052.38
13 July 20052.37
20 July 20052.38
27 July 20052.45
3 August 20052.47
10 August 20052.49
17 August 20052.47
24 August 20052.49
31 August 20052.46
7 September 20052.50
14 September 20052.51
21 September 20052.57
28 September 20052.59
5 October 20052.59
12 October 20052.52
19 October 20052.60
26 October 20052.60
2 November 20052.70
9 November 20052.76
16 November 20052.64
23 November 20052.58
30 November 20052.55
7 December 20052.56
14 December 20052.55
21 December 20052.53
28 December 20052.47
4 January 20062.46
11 January 20062.46
18 January 20062.51
25 January 20062.52
1 February 20062.58
8 February 20062.57
15 February 20062.57
22 February 20062.52
1 March 20062.52
8 March 20062.60
15 March 20062.60
22 March 20062.56
29 March 20062.56
5 April 20062.59
12 April 20062.62
19 April 20062.66
26 April 20062.72
3 May 20062.80
10 May 20062.75
17 May 20062.78
24 May 20062.71
31 May 20062.72
7 June 20062.68
14 June 20062.60
21 June 20062.65
28 June 20062.65
5 July 20062.67
12 July 20062.63
19 July 20062.63
26 July 20062.65
2 August 20062.68
9 August 20062.70
16 August 20062.71
23 August 20062.72
30 August 20062.71
6 September 20062.67
13 September 20062.65
20 September 20062.63
27 September 20062.57
4 October 20062.56
11 October 20062.57
18 October 20062.57
25 October 20062.61
1 November 20062.61
8 November 20062.63
15 November 20062.61
22 November 20062.54
29 November 20062.50
6 December 20062.54
13 December 20062.55
20 December 20062.50
27 December 20062.44
3 January 20072.47
10 January 20072.44
17 January 20072.44
24 January 20072.51
31 January 20072.55
7 February 20072.50
14 February 20072.48
21 February 20072.48
28 February 20072.49
7 March 20072.46
14 March 20072.44
21 March 20072.48
28 March 20072.55
4 April 20072.55
11 April 20072.58
18 April 20072.54
25 April 20072.51
2 May 20072.50
9 May 20072.46
16 May 20072.43
23 May 20072.45
30 May 20072.52
6 June 20072.55
13 June 20072.63
20 June 20072.64
27 June 20072.68
4 July 20072.62
11 July 20072.63
18 July 20072.62
25 July 20072.65
1 August 20072.68
8 August 20072.65
15 August 20072.68
22 August 20072.70
29 August 20072.69
5 September 20072.68
12 September 20072.69
19 September 20072.77
26 September 20072.80
3 October 20072.80
10 October 20072.79
17 October 20072.78
24 October 20072.74
31 October 20072.76
7 November 20072.78
14 November 20072.79
21 November 20072.76
28 November 20072.75
5 December 20072.73
12 December 20072.73
19 December 20072.73
26 December 20072.76
2 January 20082.71
9 January 20082.65
16 January 20082.75
23 January 20082.86
30 January 20082.97
6 February 20082.99
13 February 20082.99
20 February 20082.93
27 February 20082.93
5 March 20083.04
12 March 20083.18
19 March 20083.11
26 March 20082.99
2 April 20083.05
9 April 20082.98
16 April 20082.95
23 April 20082.87
30 April 20082.77
7 May 20082.81
14 May 20082.83
21 May 20082.84
28 May 20082.86
4 June 20082.88
11 June 20082.87
18 June 20082.79
25 June 20082.75
2 July 20082.78
9 July 20082.84
16 July 20082.79
23 July 20082.83
30 July 20082.87
6 August 20082.86
13 August 20082.79
20 August 20082.79
27 August 20082.80
3 September 20082.78
10 September 20082.73
17 September 20082.74
24 September 20082.88
1 October 20082.78
8 October 20082.64
15 October 20082.98
22 October 20083.39
29 October 20083.39
5 November 20083.43
12 November 20083.39
19 November 20082.92
26 November 20082.15
3 December 20082.62
10 December 20082.63
17 December 20082.50
24 December 20082.12
31 December 20082.08
7 January 20092.18
14 January 20092.50
21 January 20092.39
28 January 20092.67
4 February 20092.75
11 February 20092.73
18 February 20092.64
25 February 20092.62
4 March 20092.41
11 March 20092.27
18 March 20092.46
25 March 20092.46
1 April 20092.46
8 April 20092.40
15 April 20092.44
22 April 20092.40
29 April 20092.55
6 May 20092.52
13 May 20092.64
20 May 20092.75
27 May 20092.99
3 June 20093.09
10 June 20092.97
17 June 20092.77
24 June 20092.85
1 July 20092.87
8 July 20092.77
15 July 20092.78
22 July 20093.00
29 July 20093.05
5 August 20093.12
12 August 20093.26
19 August 20093.18
26 August 20093.15
2 September 20093.02
9 September 20093.04
16 September 20092.96
23 September 20092.94
30 September 20092.88
7 October 20092.79
14 October 20092.93
21 October 20093.04
28 October 20092.98
4 November 20093.01
11 November 20093.19
18 November 20093.17
25 November 20093.12
2 December 20093.04
9 December 20093.07
16 December 20093.11
23 December 20093.17
30 December 20093.20
6 January 20103.23
13 January 20103.24
20 January 20103.13
25 January 20103.06

Reuters/Michigan, next five-to-ten years
Period Percent
January 20022.7
February 20022.8
March 20022.8
April 20022.8
May 20023.0
June 20022.8
July 20022.8
August 20022.9
September 20022.5
October 20022.8
November 20022.8
December 20022.8
January 20032.7
February 20032.7
March 20032.8
April 20032.7
May 20032.8
June 20032.7
July 20032.7
August 20032.7
September 20032.7
October 20032.8
November 20032.7
December 20032.8
January 20042.8
February 20042.9
March 20042.9
April 20042.7
May 20042.8
June 20042.9
July 20042.8
August 20042.7
September 20042.8
October 20042.8
November 20042.7
December 20042.8
January 20052.7
February 20052.8
March 20052.9
April 20053.0
May 20052.9
June 20052.8
July 20052.9
August 20052.8
September 20053.1
October 20053.2
November 20053.0
December 20053.1
January 20062.9
February 20062.9
March 20062.9
April 20063.1
May 20063.2
June 20062.9
July 20062.9
August 20063.2
September 20063.0
October 20063.1
November 20063.0
December 20063.0
January 20073.0
February 20072.9
March 20072.9
April 20073.1
May 20073.1
June 20072.9
July 20073.1
August 20072.9
September 20072.9
October 20072.8
November 20072.9
December 20073.1
January 20083.0
February 20083.0
March 20082.9
April 20083.2
May 20083.4
June 20083.4
July 20083.2
August 20083.2
September 20083.0
October 20082.9
November 20082.9
December 20082.6
January 20092.9
February 20093.1
March 20092.6
April 20092.8
May 20092.9
June 20093.0
July 20093.0
August 20092.8
September 20092.8
October 20092.9
November 20093.0
December 20092.7
January 2010p2.8

SPF, next ten years
Period Percent
2002:Q1 2.50
2002:Q2 2.50
2002:Q3 2.50
2002:Q4 2.45
2003:Q1 2.50
2003:Q2 2.50
2003:Q3 2.50
2003:Q4 2.50
2004:Q1 2.50
2004:Q2 2.50
2004:Q3 2.50
2004:Q4 2.50
2005:Q1 2.45
2005:Q2 2.50
2005:Q3 2.50
2005:Q4 2.50
2006:Q1 2.50
2006:Q2 2.50
2006:Q3 2.50
2006:Q4 2.50
2007:Q1 2.35
2007:Q2 2.40
2007:Q3 2.40
2007:Q4 2.40
2008:Q1 2.50
2008:Q2 2.50
2008:Q3 2.50
2008:Q4 2.50
2009:Q1 2.40
2009:Q2 2.50
2009:Q3 2.50
2009:Q4 2.26

Middle-left panel
Compensation per Hour and Unit Labor Costs*

Percent change, Q4/Q4
Period Compensation Unit labor costs
2007 3.60 0.70
2008 2.60 1.60
2009 2.48 -2.45
Forecast
2010 2.40 1.60
2011 2.25 1.16

* Nonfarm business sector.  Return to text

Middle-right panel
Core Nonfuel Import Prices

Index, 2005 = 100
Period Current Dec. GB
2007:Q1 103.77 ND
2007:Q2 104.56 ND
2007:Q3 105.49 ND
2007:Q4 106.76 ND
2008:Q1 108.98 ND
2008:Q2 112.02 ND
2008:Q3 113.52 ND
2008:Q4 110.84 ND
2009:Q1 108.13 ND
2009:Q2 107.51 107.51
2009:Q3 107.85 107.84
Forecast
2009:Q4 109.35 109.28
2010:Q1 110.56 110.23
2010:Q2 111.18 110.69
2010:Q3 111.58 111.03
2010:Q4 111.92 111.33
2011:Q1 112.21 111.62
2011:Q2 112.50 111.91
2011:Q3 112.79 112.19
2011:Q4 113.08 112.47

Bottom panel
PCE Price Projections

Percent change, Q4/Q4
Period Core PCE PCE price index
2008 2.04 1.73
2009 1.48 1.32
Forecast
2010 1.16 1.44
2011 1.05 1.13

Exhibit 8
Foreign Growth Outlook

Top-left panel
Real GDP and Consumer Prices*

Percent change, annual rate
2009 2010p 2011p
Q3 Q4e
1. Total Foreign GDP 4.4 2.7 3.6 4.1
June Greenbook 1.5 1.8 3.1 n.a.
   
2. Emerging Market Economies 9.2 3.6 4.9 5.2
3. China 10.8 10.1 8.6 8.8
4. Other Emerging Asia 10.0 1.8 5.0 5.0
5. Mexico 12.2 2.5 3.8 4.6
6. Brazil 5.1 6.0 4.9 4.0
   
7. Advanced Foreign Economies 0.8 2.0 2.6 3.2
8. Japan 1.3 1.8 2.0 1.9
9. Euro Area 1.7 1.0 2.1 2.7
10. United Kingdom -0.6 0.4 2.5 3.1
11. Canada 0.4 3.2 3.2 3.8
   
12. Total Foreign CPI 1.5 3.2 2.2 2.0

* GDP aggregates weighted by U.S. goods exports; CPI by U.S. non-oil goods imports. Updated since January Greenbook.  Return to text

Top-right panel
Commodity Prices

Period Oil import price
(Dollars per barrel)		 Nonfuel index*
January 2008 91.88 100.00
February 2008 93.48 106.48
March 2008 96.57 110.31
April 2008 98.37 109.67
May 2008 104.05 108.20
June 2008 113.23 109.08
July 2008 115.12 109.68
August 2008 110.50 103.15
September 2008 103.15 97.78
October 2008 91.35 82.99
November 2008 67.30 76.26
December 2008 51.89 70.00
January 2009 44.02 70.90
February 2009 44.66 69.10
March 2009 45.23 68.69
April 2009 47.44 72.25
May 2009 50.48 76.21
June 2009 58.07 79.16
July 2009 58.42 79.84
August 2009 61.96 84.63
September 2009 66.51 83.62
October 2009 68.55 84.83
November 2009 75.95 88.16
December 2009 74.32 91.66
Forecast
January 2010 76.89 93.21
February 2010 76.38 92.99
March 2010 76.38 93.20
April 2010 76.38 93.41
May 2010 76.66 93.58
June 2010 77.10 93.66
July 2010 77.52 93.76
August 2010 77.88 93.77
September 2010 78.22 93.72
October 2010 78.56 93.75
November 2010 79.07 93.78
December 2010 79.59 93.89
January 2011 79.94 94.00
February 2011 80.24 94.10
March 2011 80.54 94.21
April 2011 80.84 94.25
May 2011 81.07 94.28
June 2011 81.28 94.33
July 2011 81.48 94.38
August 2011 81.69 94.44
September 2011 81.91 94.49
October 2011 82.13 94.53
November 2011 82.38 94.58
December 2011 82.64 94.64

* Jan 2008 = 100.  Return to table

Middle-left panel
China

Index, June 2007 = 100
Period Exports Industrial production
June 2007 100.00 100.00
July 2007 101.32 101.10
August 2007 100.62 102.42
September 2007 103.06 103.62
October 2007 103.33 104.98
November 2007 109.52 106.85
December 2007 112.75 109.35
January 2008 116.10 108.67
February 2008 114.00 108.93
March 2008 113.04 112.13
April 2008 120.02 113.98
May 2008 122.25 114.49
June 2008 121.42 115.78
July 2008 124.72 115.71
August 2008 125.10 116.00
September 2008 129.09 117.75
October 2008 120.09 113.17
November 2008 110.71 112.89
December 2008 102.48 114.07
January 2009 103.64 119.61
February 2009 77.06 118.97
March 2009 94.25 121.23
April 2009 91.77 122.29
May 2009 90.69 124.12
June 2009 94.25 127.55
July 2009 97.15 128.80
August 2009 95.74 130.75
September 2009 106.84 132.41
October 2009 104.96 132.51
November 2009 109.04 135.05
December 2009 122.05 136.34

Middle-center panel
Emerging Asia ex. China*

Index, June 2007 = 100
Period Exports Industrial production
June 2007 100.00 100.00
July 2007 99.84 105.71
August 2007 100.94 104.04
September 2007 98.77 101.90
October 2007 108.99 104.92
November 2007 109.24 105.22
December 2007 109.44 105.97
January 2008 116.34 108.44
February 2008 114.28 108.27
March 2008 113.87 108.62
April 2008 124.17 106.60
May 2008 124.25 105.42
June 2008 120.66 105.64
July 2008 131.06 105.43
August 2008 120.53 104.31
September 2008 114.89 104.32
October 2008 109.26 100.24
November 2008 89.64 96.06
December 2008 85.81 90.14
January 2009 76.40 89.43
February 2009 85.97 93.73
March 2009 83.31 93.37
April 2009 88.60 99.25
May 2009 84.92 99.95
June 2009 92.30 102.43
July 2009 98.42 106.99
August 2009 94.48 105.82
September 2009 99.28 107.02
October 2009 103.22 105.96
November 2009 103.94 106.55

* Also excludes Hong Kong and Philippines due to data availability.  Return to text

Middle-right panel
Latin America

Index, June 2007 = 100
Period Brazilian IP Mexican IP
June 2007 100.00 100.00
July 2007 99.90 100.26
August 2007 101.61 99.74
September 2007 100.53 100.26
October 2007 104.84 100.00
November 2007 102.74 99.05
December 2007 102.13 100.52
January 2008 103.78 100.95
February 2008 103.67 101.04
March 2008 104.41 100.95
April 2008 104.85 100.17
May 2008 103.58 100.35
June 2008 107.26 100.00
July 2008 107.49 99.14
August 2008 106.00 99.14
September 2008 107.70 97.41
October 2008 104.70 97.50
November 2008 97.49 95.17
December 2008 85.12 93.27
January 2009 87.88 90.77
February 2009 89.98 91.63
March 2009 91.12 90.42
April 2009 92.26 91.63
May 2009 93.66 89.91
June 2009 94.17 89.30
July 2009 96.46 92.49
August 2009 97.66 91.29
September 2009 99.36 91.72
October 2009 101.62 92.58
November 2009 101.37 93.53

Bottom-left panel
Japan

Index, June 2007 = 100
Period Real exports Household spending
June 2007 100.00 100.00
July 2007 100.42 96.48
August 2007 105.99 99.70
September 2007 103.49 99.40
October 2007 104.83 99.50
November 2007 105.49 98.79
December 2007 105.99 101.21
January 2008 109.65 101.61
February 2008 105.82 98.09
March 2008 109.40 96.98
April 2008 104.66 96.78
May 2008 106.82 98.09
June 2008 106.16 96.18
July 2008 107.40 97.39
August 2008 106.82 95.88
September 2008 106.57 96.38
October 2008 104.08 96.28
November 2008 89.35 97.69
December 2008 80.87 96.78
January 2009 66.64 95.98
February 2009 64.31 96.28
March 2009 64.23 96.08
April 2009 69.13 95.18
May 2009 72.71 97.29
June 2009 77.04 96.98
July 2009 78.95 95.68
August 2009 79.95 97.49
September 2009 84.36 97.59
October 2009 87.10 98.29
November 2009 87.69 98.39

Bottom-right panel
Euro Area

Index, June 2007 = 100
Period Retail sales Industrial production
June 2007 100.00 100.00
July 2007 100.22 100.68
August 2007 100.16 100.89
September 2007 100.15 100.43
October 2007 100.01 100.95
November 2007 99.75 101.09
December 2007 99.63 100.67
January 2008 100.40 101.93
February 2008 100.29 101.94
March 2008 99.44 101.91
April 2008 99.20 102.20
May 2008 99.83 100.48
June 2008 99.03 99.76
July 2008 98.83 99.56
August 2008 98.66 99.23
September 2008 99.03 98.89
October 2008 97.80 94.04
November 2008 98.65 92.48
December 2008 97.92 86.95
January 2009 97.67 86.07
February 2009 97.12 82.20
March 2009 97.03 81.98
April 2009 97.20 81.60
May 2009 96.72 82.48
June 2009 96.77 83.29
July 2009 96.77 83.65
August 2009 96.57 84.62
September 2009 96.14 84.85
October 2009 96.41 84.63
November 2009 95.30 85.58

Exhibit 9
Advanced Foreign Economies (AFEs)

Top panel
Projected Private Final Demand Growth

Percent
Period Euro area Japan United Kingdom Canada
2009:H2 -1.04 0.40 0.91 3.68
2010 0.96 1.22 1.64 3.59
2011 2.59 1.62 2.93 3.78

[Data for 2010 and 2011 are approximate.]

Middle-left panel
Gross Debt to GDP

Percent
Period Euro area Japan United Kingdom Canada
2001 73.74 143.68 40.39 82.66
2002 74.06 152.28 40.83 80.55
2003 74.99 157.98 41.16 76.56
2004 75.79 165.54 43.46 72.60
2005 76.82 175.27 46.09 71.61
2006 74.43 172.15 45.85 69.46
2007 70.94 167.10 46.95 64.98
2008 73.20 172.10 52.40 69.70
2009 78.20 189.30 67.70 82.80
Forecast
2010 82.40 195.90 76.40 84.30
2011 85.20 202.10 81.60 84.40

Sources: OECD, staff forecast.

Middle-center panel
10-Yr. Govt. Yield Spreads*

Basis points
Period Spain Portugal Italy Greece Ireland
5 October 2009 62.8 66.8 92.4 130.4 167.2
6 October 2009 62.2 63.8 90.4 131.0 161.4
7 October 2009 62.4 64.6 90.0 131.8 158.0
8 October 2009 61.2 64.5 88.7 130.1 155.7
9 October 2009 59.1 62.3 85.8 126.1 153.9
12 October 2009 59.6 62.8 87.1 127.1 154.1
13 October 2009 63.4 65.7 91.4 131.5 157.0
14 October 2009 61.5 63.1 90.1 130.5 156.0
15 October 2009 60.5 62.4 90.5 132.4 154.0
16 October 2009 58.6 60.3 88.4 136.9 153.4
19 October 2009 56.6 59.4 85.7 135.3 153.6
20 October 2009 56.8 58.8 85.5 134.6 151.3
21 October 2009 53.7 53.2 83.8 131.2 146.3
22 October 2009 52.9 53.2 83.8 131.3 146.9
23 October 2009 52.5 54.5 84.2 134.2 147.2
26 October 2009 51.3 54.1 82.7 133.5 144.9
27 October 2009 53.1 55.2 82.7 136.9 145.6
28 October 2009 52.9 54.2 82.4 136.3 145.9
29 October 2009 54.6 54.6 82.3 138.2 145.3
30 October 2009 55.7 56.2 84.3 142.3 146.8
2 November 2009 54.7 53.1 82.6 139.5 147.1
3 November 2009 55.3 51.7 82.0 139.1 145.5
4 November 2009 53.8 49.8 79.3 138.2 143.9
5 November 2009 53.5 49.0 77.6 137.6 140.9
6 November 2009 53.1 49.9 76.8 138.2 140.3
9 November 2009 53.2 49.6 76.8 137.5 140.1
10 November 2009 53.0 49.5 76.2 138.7 142.8
11 November 2009 46.4 42.1 69.4 132.2 136.7
12 November 2009 46.4 42.0 69.0 132.0 136.2
13 November 2009 49.2 43.6 71.7 140.0 139.9
16 November 2009 52.5 48.1 74.7 153.9 148.3
17 November 2009 50.3 47.6 74.0 147.7 139.8
18 November 2009 52.3 49.0 75.1 156.0 142.9
19 November 2009 55.3 53.0 78.9 169.7 149.2
20 November 2009 57.2 55.3 80.7 172.3 153.2
23 November 2009 56.6 54.0 78.8 166.2 149.8
24 November 2009 56.3 53.6 79.3 173.6 152.0
25 November 2009 55.6 54.5 79.5 179.4 155.3
26 November 2009 59.5 62.0 88.8 201.6 168.5
27 November 2009 60.8 62.3 87.1 194.2 170.6
30 November 2009 58.8 59.5 85.8 183.6 168.5
1 December 2009 58.1 57.5 83.5 172.9 164.4
2 December 2009 58.3 56.9 82.0 168.7 162.8
3 December 2009 57.3 56.0 81.1 171.3 160.9
4 December 2009 54.3 52.8 76.1 176.5 159.8
7 December 2009 55.9 58.0 76.7 195.2 163.5
8 December 2009 60.7 65.5 82.8 221.0 170.5
9 December 2009 69.5 77.4 87.5 246.8 189.7
10 December 2009 68.6 74.4 85.4 227.0 178.5
11 December 2009 62.6 68.8 81.9 208.4 165.9
14 December 2009 61.2 67.4 82.3 228.8 164.2
15 December 2009 61.1 67.8 79.9 249.8 162.4
16 December 2009 59.1 66.6 79.9 231.8 153.7
17 December 2009 64.6 71.7 82.5 253.2 158.7
18 December 2009 70.5 78.6 84.0 265.9 160.5
21 December 2009 73.7 81.5 84.4 276.9 159.1
22 December 2009 65.9 72.8 76.3 248.3 151.8
23 December 2009 63.3 69.5 72.7 242.3 147.7
24 December 2009 62.1 68.6 72.6 241.7 147.7
25 December 2009 62.6 69.4 73.1 242.4 148.2
28 December 2009 60.6 68.8 71.2 238.0 147.4
29 December 2009 58.7 67.5 73.5 236.6 146.2
30 December 2009 58.8 68.8 75.4 238.7 144.7
31 December 2009 59.1 68.2 75.5 238.7 145.2
1 January 2010 59.1 69.0 75.5 238.7 145.1
4 January 2010 57.9 67.3 71.7 233.1 138.0
5 January 2010 59.2 67.6 72.8 227.9 141.8
6 January 2010 62.2 69.1 73.9 227.1 151.2
7 January 2010 61.3 67.3 72.4 227.3 144.8
8 January 2010 57.0 61.2 69.3 220.0 140.2
11 January 2010 61.6 65.8 71.0 217.5 140.6
12 January 2010 63.5 69.4 74.2 234.5 144.2
13 January 2010 65.9 76.4 78.6 257.7 151.5
14 January 2010 69.8 88.6 80.6 277.6 157.4
15 January 2010 70.4 92.9 81.1 273.4 156.7
18 January 2010 72.5 94.3 81.2 268.1 156.9
19 January 2010 73.1 92.3 78.6 264.3 147.4
20 January 2010 79.6 104.4 85.2 293.8 161.3
21 January 2010 80.2 104.4 86.8 288.1 156.7
22 January 2010 81.5 109.2 86.3 304.8 159.5
25 January 2010 74.0 98.0 82.9 297.7 149.7
26 January 2010 82.9 93.5 82.5 301.5 149.5

* Relative to Germany.  Return to text

Middle-right panel
Policy Rates

Percent
Period Euro area Japan United Kingdom Canada
2 January 2007 3.50 ND 5.00 4.25
4 January 2007 3.50 0.25 5.00 4.25
11 January 2007 3.50 0.25 5.25 4.25
21 February 2007 3.50 0.50 5.25 4.25
8 March 2007 3.75 0.50 5.25 4.25
10 May 2007 3.75 0.50 5.50 4.25
6 June 2007 4.00 0.50 5.50 4.25
5 July 2007 4.00 0.50 5.75 4.25
10 July 2007 4.00 0.50 5.75 4.50
4 December 2007 4.00 0.50 5.75 4.25
6 December 2007 4.00 0.50 5.50 4.25
22 January 2008 4.00 0.50 5.50 4.00
7 February 2008 4.00 0.50 5.25 4.00
4 March 2008 4.00 0.50 5.25 3.50
10 April 2008 4.00 0.50 5.00 3.50
22 April 2008 4.00 0.50 5.00 3.00
3 July 2008 4.25 0.50 5.00 3.00
8 October 2008 3.75 0.50 4.50 2.50
21 October 2008 3.75 0.50 4.50 2.25
31 October 2008 3.75 0.30 4.50 2.25
6 November 2008 3.25 0.30 3.00 2.25
4 December 2008 2.50 0.30 2.00 2.25
9 December 2008 2.50 0.30 2.00 1.50
19 December 2008 2.50 0.10 2.00 1.50
8 January 2009 2.50 0.10 1.50 1.50
15 January 2009 2.00 0.10 1.50 1.50
20 January 2009 2.00 0.10 1.50 1.00
5 February 2009 2.00 0.10 1.00 1.00
3 March 2009 2.00 0.10 1.00 0.50
5 March 2009 1.50 0.10 0.50 0.50
2 April 2009 1.25 0.10 0.50 0.50
21 April 2009 1.25 0.10 0.50 0.25
7 May 2009 1.00 0.10 0.50 0.25
Forecast
16 November 2010 1.00 0.10 0.75 0.50
3 January 2011 1.25 0.10 1.25 0.75
1 April 2011 1.50 0.10 1.75 1.00
1 July 2011 1.75 0.10 2.25 1.25
3 October 2011 2.00 0.10 2.75 1.50
30 December 2011 2.00 0.10 2.75 1.50

Bottom-left panel
Employment*

Index, 2007:Q1 = 100
Period United States Euro area Japan United Kingdom Canada
2007:Q1 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
2007:Q2 99.83 100.45 100.31 100.34 100.37
2007:Q3 99.85 100.85 99.99 100.76 100.90
2007:Q4 100.02 101.12 100.24 101.14 101.59
2008:Q1 100.07 101.52 100.09 101.49 102.07
2008:Q2 99.92 101.58 99.90 101.63 102.29
2008:Q3 99.38 101.34 99.39 101.23 102.27
2008:Q4 98.48 100.97 99.48 100.91 102.39
2009:Q1 96.88 100.24 99.32 100.38 100.96
2009:Q2 96.11 99.76 97.86 99.53 100.59
2009:Q3 95.34 99.28 97.63 99.55 100.38
2009:Q4 94.52 ND ND ND 100.60

* Total economy.  Return to text

Bottom-right panel
Output per Employed Person

Index, 2007:Q1 = 100
Period United States Euro area Japan United Kingdom Canada
2007:Q1 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
2007:Q2 99.83 100.45 100.31 100.34 100.37
2007:Q3 99.85 100.85 99.99 100.76 100.90
2007:Q4 100.02 101.12 100.24 101.14 101.59
2008:Q1 100.07 101.52 100.09 101.49 102.07
2008:Q2 99.92 101.58 99.90 101.63 102.29
2008:Q3 99.38 101.34 99.39 101.23 102.27
2008:Q4 98.48 100.97 99.48 100.91 102.39
2009:Q1 96.88 100.24 99.32 100.38 100.96
2009:Q2 96.11 99.76 97.86 99.53 100.59
2009:Q3 95.34 99.28 97.63 99.55 100.38
2009:Q4 94.52 ND ND ND 100.60

Exhibit 10
Emerging Market Economies (EMEs)

Top-left panel
Chinese Domestic Demand

Retail sales volume
Period Percent change*
January 2006 14.36
February 2006 8.92
March 2006 13.31
April 2006 12.88
May 2006 13.07
June 2006 12.44
July 2006 12.93
August 2006 12.79
September 2006 12.55
October 2006 13.10
November 2006 12.41
December 2006 11.94
January 2007 10.75
February 2007 14.68
March 2007 12.52
April 2007 13.06
May 2007 13.18
June 2007 12.39
July 2007 11.49
August 2007 11.31
September 2007 11.54
October 2007 12.14
November 2007 12.08
December 2007 13.84
January 2008 14.14
February 2008 10.19
March 2008 12.71
April 2008 12.88
May 2008 13.12
June 2008 14.85
July 2008 15.45
August 2008 16.78
September 2008 16.99
October 2008 16.66
November 2008 17.63
December 2008 17.36
January 2009 17.68
February 2009 13.41
March 2009 16.45
April 2009 16.98
May 2009 17.45
June 2009 17.74
July 2009 18.11
August 2009 17.73
September 2009 17.28
October 2009 17.75
November 2009 15.81
December 2009 15.91
Fixed-asset investment
Period Percent change*
2006:Q1 26.45
2006:Q2 29.99
2006:Q3 22.36
2006:Q4 20.24
2007:Q1 26.01
2007:Q2 28.73
2007:Q3 26.35
2007:Q4 20.52
2008:Q1 24.65
2008:Q2 27.06
2008:Q3 28.06
2008:Q4 22.61
2009:Q1 28.76
2009:Q2 35.73
2009:Q3 33.22
2009:Q4 24.52

* From year earlier.  Return to table

Top-right panel
Projected Total Domestic Demand Growth

2009:H2
(Percent, annual rate)		 2010
(Percent)
Korea 10.0 5.4
Taiwan 7.0 5.7
Mexico 9.6 6.5
Brazil 7.4 5.8

[Data are approximate.]

Middle-left panel
Flows to Dedicated EME Funds

Billions of USD
Period Bonds Equities
2007:Q1 2.53 ND
2007:Q2 2.00 2.36
2007:Q3 -1.18 14.01
2007:Q4 0.94 10.14
2008:Q1 0.49 -13.41
2008:Q2 0.17 7.49
2008:Q3 -4.25 -14.83
2008:Q4 -11.06 -9.63
2009:Q1 -3.10 -1.56
2009:Q2 0.88 16.59
2009:Q3 3.16 5.81
2009:Q4 7.09 9.07

Middle-center panel
Equity Price/Expected Earnings

Ratio
Period Total emerging Asia China*
January 2006 12.37 13.12
February 2006 11.06 11.83
March 2006 11.07 11.66
April 2006 11.96 12.43
May 2006 11.65 13.54
June 2006 10.32 12.70
July 2006 10.95 13.00
August 2006 11.84 12.33
September 2006 12.02 12.55
October 2006 12.63 12.58
November 2006 13.15 14.76
December 2006 13.40 17.33
January 2007 14.09 22.20
February 2007 12.53 18.86
March 2007 12.30 20.14
April 2007 13.06 22.66
May 2007 13.23 24.07
June 2007 13.55 24.67
July 2007 14.92 23.61
August 2007 13.67 28.76
September 2007 14.49 30.35
October 2007 16.61 33.77
November 2007 15.38 28.40
December 2007 14.93 27.61
January 2008 14.90 30.75
February 2008 11.83 22.00
March 2008 11.12 18.20
April 2008 12.29 17.02
May 2008 13.01 18.29
June 2008 11.94 14.72
July 2008 10.57 14.49
August 2008 11.39 13.12
September 2008 10.03 11.13
October 2008 9.57 11.68
November 2008 8.87 12.22
December 2008 11.09 13.22
January 2009 11.20 12.87
February 2009 9.53 15.00
March 2009 10.05 13.88
April 2009 11.96 16.28
May 2009 12.82 16.84
June 2009 13.33 17.66
July 2009 13.14 19.47
August 2009 13.59 17.81
September 2009 13.96 18.12
October 2009 14.02 17.27
November 2009 13.93 19.01
December 2009 13.61 17.42

* Based on Shanghai A index.  Return to table

Middle-right panel
Property Prices

Index, Jan. 2006 = 100
Period China Hong Kong Korea
January 2006 100.00 100.00 100.00
February 2006 100.70 100.33 100.45
March 2006 101.00 101.98 101.10
April 2006 101.41 102.86 101.99
May 2006 102.12 103.52 103.03
June 2006 102.83 101.65 103.52
July 2006 103.34 101.21 103.75
August 2006 103.76 102.42 104.00
September 2006 104.17 102.75 104.50
October 2006 104.59 102.53 105.91
November 2006 105.11 102.42 109.19
December 2006 105.74 103.30 111.23
January 2007 106.38 104.85 112.20
February 2007 107.02 106.39 112.61
March 2007 107.66 107.82 112.82
April 2007 108.41 108.70 112.96
May 2007 109.50 110.68 113.00
June 2007 110.59 111.89 113.15
July 2007 111.92 113.22 113.45
August 2007 113.49 114.54 113.66
September 2007 115.41 115.97 113.96
October 2007 117.26 119.49 114.25
November 2007 118.20 124.78 114.56
December 2007 118.44 129.85 114.72
January 2008 118.79 135.68 115.04
February 2008 119.03 138.22 115.39
March 2008 119.39 139.21 116.27
April 2008 119.62 137.33 117.29
May 2008 119.74 139.21 118.00
June 2008 119.74 139.43 118.72
July 2008 119.86 137.56 119.18
August 2008 119.74 135.35 119.42
September 2008 119.62 134.25 119.69
October 2008 119.27 125.88 119.63
November 2008 118.67 115.53 119.15
December 2008 118.08 115.42 118.29
January 2009 117.84 117.95 117.63
February 2009 117.60 118.72 117.34
March 2009 117.84 120.26 117.13
April 2009 118.31 124.89 117.20
May 2009 119.02 128.52 117.33
June 2009 119.97 133.37 117.56
July 2009 121.05 136.67 117.88
August 2009 122.14 140.31 118.25
September 2009 123.00 142.95 119.10
October 2009 123.86 144.49 119.55
November 2009 125.34 143.72 119.85
December 2009 127.22 ND 120.02
Index, Jan. 2006 = 100
Period Singapore Thailand
2006:Q1 100.00 100.00
2006:Q2 101.75 101.13
2006:Q3 104.50 100.50
2006:Q4 108.50 101.64
2007:Q1 113.75 100.38
2007:Q2 123.17 101.32
2007:Q3 133.33 103.08
2007:Q4 142.33 102.89
2008:Q1 147.67 99.31
2008:Q2 147.92 100.88
2008:Q3 144.42 101.51
2008:Q4 135.67 101.51
2009:Q1 116.58 103.90
2009:Q2 111.08 100.82
2009:Q3 128.58 94.52
2009:Q4 138.08 ND

Bottom-left panel
Chinese Policy and Lending

Period Reserve requirements*
(Percent)		 Change in outstanding loans
(Billions of RMB)
January 2007 9.50 568.40
February 2007 10.00 413.76
March 2007 10.00 441.68
April 2007 10.50 421.96
May 2007 11.00 247.27
June 2007 11.50 451.46
July 2007 11.50 231.41
August 2007 12.00 302.87
September 2007 12.50 283.49
October 2007 13.00 136.11
November 2007 13.50 87.40
December 2007 14.50 48.55
January 2008 15.00 800.47
February 2008 15.00 247.04
March 2008 15.50 283.42
April 2008 16.00 469.00
May 2008 16.50 318.50
June 2008 17.50 332.42
July 2008 17.50 381.76
August 2008 17.50 271.54
September 2008 17.50 374.47
October 2008 17.00 181.86
November 2008 17.00 -254.61
December 2008 15.50 764.51
January 2009 15.50 1652.72
February 2009 15.50 1071.59
March 2009 15.50 1891.71
April 2009 15.50 591.80
May 2009 15.50 666.89
June 2009 15.50 1530.44
July 2009 15.50 369.15
August 2009 15.50 410.36
September 2009 15.50 516.67
October 2009 15.50 252.98
November 2009 15.50 294.77
December 2009 15.50 379.83
January 2010 16.00 ND

* For large banks. January 2010 data is approximate.  Return to table

Bottom-right panel
Fiscal Stimulus

Percent of GDP
Period China Korea Mexico Brazil
2009 3.6 1.0 1.0 3.0
2010 0.2 -1.0 -1.3 -1.5
2011 -1.9 0.0 0.1 -0.8

[Data are approximate.]


Exhibit 11 (Last)
External Sector

Top-left panel
Selected Exchange Rates

Index, Dec. 3 = 100
Period Euro Japanese yen Korean won Canadian dollar
3 December 2009 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
4 December 2009 101.32 101.89 100.09 99.77
7 December 2009 101.76 101.41 100.21 99.71
8 December 2009 102.31 100.24 100.11 100.57
9 December 2009 102.42 99.58 100.87 100.10
10 December 2009 102.48 100.00 101.30 99.80
11 December 2009 103.29 101.17 101.09 100.42
14 December 2009 102.98 100.51 100.52 100.48
15 December 2009 103.91 101.94 100.57 100.79
16 December 2009 103.46 101.50 100.90 100.38
17 December 2009 105.34 102.44 101.99 101.65
18 December 2009 105.60 102.57 101.84 101.33
21 December 2009 105.32 103.12 103.08 100.50
22 December 2009 105.88 103.93 102.52 100.15
23 December 2009 105.16 103.76 102.78 99.40
24 December 2009 104.97 103.96 102.01 99.49
25 December 2009 ND ND ND ND
28 December 2009 104.79 103.82 101.57 98.97
29 December 2009 105.05 104.25 101.39 98.68
30 December 2009 105.34 105.06 101.19 99.85
31 December 2009 105.23 105.53 101.19 99.26
1 January 2010 ND ND ND ND
4 January 2010 104.59 104.93 99.91 98.46
5 January 2010 104.71 103.72 98.97 98.41
6 January 2010 104.70 104.91 98.26 98.05
7 January 2010 105.36 105.79 98.70 98.22
8 January 2010 105.04 105.10 98.07 98.16
11 January 2010 103.75 104.20 97.39 97.89
12 January 2010 103.84 103.12 97.41 98.43
13 January 2010 104.06 103.61 97.57 97.91
14 January 2010 104.16 103.21 97.61 97.35
15 January 2010 104.90 102.94 97.65 97.61
18 January 2010 ND ND ND ND
19 January 2010 105.69 103.32 98.20 97.97
20 January 2010 107.00 103.44 98.57 99.41
21 January 2010 106.91 102.32 99.22 99.47
22 January 2010 106.55 102.12 100.26 100.21
25 January 2010 106.61 102.18 99.65 100.41
26 January 2010 107.24 101.62 101.14 101.23

Top-right panel
Broad Real Dollar

Index, 2007:Q2 = 100
Period Index June GB
2007:Q2 100.00 ND
2007:Q3 97.89 ND
2007:Q4 94.70 ND
2008:Q1 92.69 ND
2008:Q2 91.05 ND
2008:Q3 93.38 ND
2008:Q4 101.18 ND
2009:Q1 103.34 ND
2009:Q2 99.56 ND
2009:Q3 96.71 97.98
Forecast
2009:Q4 94.25 97.76
2010:Q1 94.21 97.34
2010:Q2 93.73 96.78
2010:Q3 93.15 96.15
2010:Q4 92.48 95.49
2011:Q1 91.79 ND
2011:Q2 91.08 ND
2011:Q3 90.37 ND
2011:Q4 89.66 ND

Middle-left panel
Capital Flows

Billions of U.S. dollars
Period Foreign private net purchases
of U.S. securities		 Foreign official flows U.S. net purchases
of foreign securities
January 2006 54.17 29.82 22.52
February 2006 54.84 33.33 24.33
March 2006 51.98 37.62 23.81
April 2006 41.30 39.33 26.34
May 2006 40.22 41.11 27.78
June 2006 43.22 43.88 25.85
July 2006 41.06 45.58 25.96
August 2006 46.49 44.32 24.69
September 2006 48.19 43.40 25.10
October 2006 59.64 39.66 24.71
November 2006 66.56 36.18 27.81
December 2006 61.28 38.82 34.55
January 2007 73.35 36.19 34.79
February 2007 68.51 40.29 38.36
March 2007 70.03 45.27 43.06
April 2007 68.67 48.23 43.72
May 2007 75.38 46.17 43.03
June 2007 87.10 42.02 38.15
July 2007 72.30 43.19 36.73
August 2007 63.00 29.90 38.18
September 2007 50.72 22.53 36.92
October 2007 56.05 24.25 34.32
November 2007 36.71 32.94 24.25
December 2007 25.22 37.18 22.99
January 2008 20.96 46.55 23.55
February 2008 26.28 55.39 19.54
March 2008 24.38 62.46 11.78
April 2008 11.11 63.81 8.52
May 2008 11.30 62.39 15.63
June 2008 7.05 63.39 14.61
July 2008 3.55 51.66 5.65
August 2008 -2.67 47.92 -0.21
September 2008 2.26 49.97 -5.93
October 2008 8.43 38.06 -8.77
November 2008 0.41 27.22 -18.68
December 2008 4.63 16.61 -22.35
January 2009 -1.70 13.90 -12.65
February 2009 5.77 17.72 -9.52
March 2009 9.48 8.77 -4.12
April 2009 -8.11 16.70 4.07
May 2009 -4.92 23.49 13.74
June 2009 -0.38 32.53 20.80
July 2009 11.42 35.70 20.89
August 2009 4.89 33.18 21.25
September 2009 1.47 32.81 23.23
October 2009 3.90 34.33 23.03
November 2009 11.13 34.95 18.60

Note: Six-month moving average.

Middle-right panel
Trade in Real Goods and Services

2009 2010p 2011p
Q3 Q4e
Growth Rates (percent, a.r.)
1. Exports 17.8 17.3 9.5 9.3
2. Imports 21.3 11.8 8.8 8.3
Contribution to Real GDP Growth (percentage points, a.r.)
3. Net Exports -0.8 0.2 -0.2 -0.1

Bottom-left panel
U.S. Exports and Imports

Billions of chained (2005) dollars
Period Exports June GB Exports Imports June GB Imports
2007:Q1 1485.88 ND 2190.84 ND
2007:Q2 1504.76 ND 2188.13 ND
2007:Q3 1569.90 ND 2208.34 ND
2007:Q4 1623.96 ND 2188.01 ND
2008:Q1 1623.42 ND 2174.29 ND
2008:Q2 1670.43 ND 2146.48 ND
2008:Q3 1655.18 ND 2134.43 ND
2008:Q4 1568.01 ND 2038.89 ND
2009:Q1 1434.55 ND 1821.04 ND
2009:Q2 1419.46 1417.96 1749.83 1750.40
2009:Q3 1478.83 1430.44 1836.25 1763.94
Forecast
2009:Q4 1538.99 1439.23 1888.36 1807.81
2010:Q1 1575.44 1450.91 1938.18 1840.22
2010:Q2 1609.18 1464.27 1976.70 1843.00
2010:Q3 1645.80 1480.17 2019.58 1853.17
2010:Q4 1685.32 1497.34 2053.89 1905.50
2011:Q1 1724.67 ND 2099.47 ND
2011:Q2 1763.45 ND 2141.11 ND
2011:Q3 1803.06 ND 2188.30 ND
2011:Q4 1842.69 ND 2223.63 ND

Bottom-right panel
Current Account

Period Percent of GDP Billions of dollars
2005:Q1 -5.64 -697.88
2005:Q2 -5.72 -716.24
2005:Q3 -5.82 -741.35
2005:Q4 -6.50 -839.26
2006:Q1 -6.03 -794.60
2006:Q2 -6.06 -808.31
2006:Q3 -6.39 -859.16
2006:Q4 -5.53 -752.12
2007:Q1 -5.77 -796.40
2007:Q2 -5.44 -762.12
2007:Q3 -4.84 -686.46
2007:Q4 -4.61 -661.32
2008:Q1 -4.99 -717.19
2008:Q2 -5.18 -750.88
2008:Q3 -5.06 -736.71
2008:Q4 -4.32 -619.50
2009:Q1 -2.95 -417.80
2009:Q2 -2.77 -391.93
2009:Q3 -3.03 -432.14
Forecast
2009:Q4 -3.09 -446.57
2010:Q1 -3.29 -481.69
2010:Q2 -3.19 -472.23
2010:Q3 -3.23 -484.21
2010:Q4 -3.16 -478.78
2011:Q1 -3.27 -503.41
2011:Q2 -3.16 -492.61
2011:Q3 -3.21 -507.70
2011:Q4 -3.16 -507.35


Appendix 4: Materials used by Mr. Madigan

Material for Briefing on
FOMC Participants' Economic Projections

Brian Madigan
January 26-27, 2010

Class I FOMC - Restricted-Controlled (FR)

Exhibit 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2010-12 and over the longer run

Actual values for years 2005 through 2009.

Change in real GDP
Percent
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Longer Run
Actual 2.7 2.4 2.5 -1.9 0.0 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 4.0 4.7 5.0 3.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 3.5 4.5 4.5 2.8
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.8 3.4 3.5 2.5
Lower End of Range - - - - - 2.3 2.7 3.0 2.4
Unemployment rate
Percent
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Longer Run
Actual 5.0 4.5 4.8 6.9 10.0 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 10.0 8.8 7.6 6.3
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 9.7 8.5 7.5 5.2
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 9.5 8.2 6.6 5.0
Lower End of Range - - - - - 8.6 7.2 6.1 4.9
PCE inflation
Percent
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Longer Run
Actual 3.3 1.9 3.6 1.7 1.3 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.7
Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.5
Core PCE inflation
Percent
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Actual 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.0 1.5 - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.0 2.4 2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.7 1.9 1.9
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.1 1.0 1.2
Lower End of Range - - - - - 0.9 0.9 0.8

Note: Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual.
[In the first table, emphasis (italic) indicates a Greenbook forecast value for 2009.]


Exhibit 2: Economic Projections for 2010-2012 and Longer Run

Real GDP Growth
2010 2011 2012 Longer run
Central Tendency 2.8 to 3.5 3.4 to 4.5 3.5 to 4.5 2.5 to 2.8
November projections 2.5 to 3.5 3.4 to 4.5 3.5 to 4.8 2.5 to 2.8
Range 2.3 to 4.0 2.7 to 4.7 3.0 to 5.0 2.4 to 3.0
November projections 2.0 to 4.0 2.5 to 4.6 2.8 to 5.0 2.4 to 3.0
Memo: Greenbook 3.6 4.7 4.5 2.5
November Greenbook 3.4 4.4 5.0 2.5
Unemployment Rate
2010 2011 2012 Longer run
Central Tendency 9.5 to 9.7 8.2 to 8.5 6.6 to 7.5 5.0 to 5.2
November projections 9.3 to 9.7 8.2 to 8.6 6.8 to 7.5 5.0 to 5.2
Range 8.6 to 10.0 7.2 to 8.8 6.1 to 7.6 4.9 to 6.3
November projections 8.6 to 10.2 7.2 to 8.7 6.1 to 7.6 4.8 to 6.3
Memo: Greenbook 9.5 8.2 6.1 5.0
November Greenbook 9.5 8.2 6.1 4.8
PCE Inflation
2010 2011 2012 Longer run
Central Tendency 1.4 to 1.7 1.1 to 2.0 1.3 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.0
November projections 1.3 to 1.6 1.0 to 1.9 1.2 to 1.9 1.7 to 2.0
Range 1.2 to 2.0 1.0 to 2.4 0.8 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0
November projections 1.1 to 2.0 0.6 to 2.4 0.2 to 2.3 1.5 to 2.0
Memo: Greenbook 1.4 1.1 1.3 2.0
November Greenbook 1.4 1.0 1.2 2.0
Core PCE Inflation
2010 2011 2012
Central Tendency 1.1 to 1.7 1.0 to 1.9 1.2 to 1.9
November projections 1.0 to 1.5 1.0 to 1.6 1.0 to 1.7
Range 0.9 to 2.0 0.9 to 2.4 0.8 to 2.0
November projections 0.9 to 2.0 0.5 to 2.4 0.2 to 2.3
Memo: Greenbook 1.2 1.1 1.2
November Greenbook 1.1 1.0 1.1

Exhibit 3. Risks and Uncertainty in Economic Projections

Top-left panel
Uncertainty about GDP Growth

Number of participants
Lower   Similar    Higher
January projections 0 3 14
November projections 0 1 16

Top-right panel
Risks to GDP Growth

Number of participants
Downside Balanced Upside
January projections 1 16 0
November projections 1 16 0

Bottom-left panel
Uncertainty about PCE Inflation

Number of participants
Lower   Similar    Higher
January projections 1 3 13
November projections 1 2 14

Bottom-right panel
Risks to PCE Inflation

Number of participants
Downside Balanced Upside
January projections 1 14 2
November projections 2 13 2



Appendix 5: Materials used by Mr. Stockton

The Market for New Single-Family Homes

Top panel

2009 2009 2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct. Nov. Dec.
Sales1
Total 374 372 406 373 408 370 342
Previous 407 400 355
Percent Change -22.9 10.1 9.1 -8.1 4.3 -9.3 -7.6
By region
Northeast 31 27 38 34 33 28 40
Midwest 54 49 60 57 56 73 43
South 202 202 208 198 224 192 178
West 87 93 101 84 95 77 81
Inventories
New homes for sale2 231 280 252 231 242 235 231
Months' supply3 9.1 9.4 7.7 7.6 7.1 7.6 8.1
Prices
Mean (thousands of dollars)4 270.4 270.0 274.9 269.1 263.1 267.3 299.1
Year-to-year percent change5 -7.6 -10.3 -3.8 -2.3 -4.2 -7.1 10.5
One-period percent change (annual rate for quarters, monthly rate for months) -7.6 15.2 7.4 -8.1 -10.4 1.6 11.9
Constant-quality price index6
Year-to-year percent change5 -4.5 -6.0 -5.9 .3 n.a. n.a. n.a.
One-period percent change (annual rate for quarters) -4.5 2.3 -2.6 8.3 n.a. n.a. n.a.

1. Thousands of units, s.a.a.r., except where noted. Percent change is from previous comparable period, not at an annual rate.  Return to table

2. Thousands of units, seasonally adjusted, end of period stock.  Return to table

3. At current sales rate; expressed as the ratio of s.a. inventories to s.a. sales. Quarterly and annual values are averages of monthly values.  Return to table

4. Quarterly and annual values of mean prices are equal to a weighted average of monthly data; the weights are based on the response rate to the survey in each month. Seasonally adjusted by FRB staff.  Return to table

5. Year-to-year percent changes are from the year-earlier comparable period.  Return to table

6. Based on characteristics of new homes sold in 2005. Seasonally adjusted by FRB staff.  Return to table

s.a.a.r. Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

s.a. Seasonally adjusted.

n.a. Not available.

Source: Census Bureau.

Bottom-left panel
New Home Sales

Data plotted as a curve. The period covered is from January 1997 through December 2009, and the data are in millions of units. As shown in the figure, new home sales were relatively flat from 1999 through 2002, at which point they increased until their peak in mid-2005. New home sales fell drastically from 2006 through about 2008, and have remained more or less flat at a low level for 2009. The most recent month of data (December 2009) shows a 7.6% decrease in new home sales from the previous month (November 2009).

Source: Census Bureau.

Bottom-right panel
Inventories of New Homes and Months' Supply

Data plotted as curves. The period covered is from January 2001 through December 2009. The chart shows two curves, plotted on different scales. The left scale shows inventories of new homes in thousands of units. Inventories rose from the beginning of 2001 to mid-2006, and have fallen drastically since then. The most recent month of data (December 2009) is the lowest level of inventories during the time period shown. The right scale shows months' supply of new homes, and the units are number of months. Months' supply was relatively flat from 2001 through mid-2005 at a level of about 4 months. From there it increased to its peak of about 11 months at the end of 2008. The months' supply has fallen since the end of 2008, but remains elevated compared to its level in the early 2000s.

Note: Months' supply is calculated using the 3-month moving average of sales.

Source: Census Bureau.



Appendix 6: Materials used by Mr. English

Material for FOMC Briefing on Monetary Policy Alternatives

Bill English
January 27, 2010

Class I FOMC - Restricted-Controlled FR

December FOMC Statement

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November suggests that economic activity has continued to pick up and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. The housing sector has shown some signs of improvement over recent months. Household spending appears to be expanding at a moderate rate, though it remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment, though at a slower pace, and remain reluctant to add to payrolls; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Financial market conditions have become more supportive of economic growth. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve is in the process of purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee is gradually slowing the pace of these purchases, and it anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets.

In light of ongoing improvements in the functioning of financial markets, the Committee and the Board of Governors anticipate that most of the Federal Reserve's special liquidity facilities will expire on February 1, 2010, consistent with the Federal Reserve's announcement of June 25, 2009. These facilities include the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, and the Term Securities Lending Facility. The Federal Reserve will also be working with its central bank counterparties to close its temporary liquidity swap arrangements by February 1. The Federal Reserve expects that amounts provided under the Term Auction Facility will continue to be scaled back in early 2010. The anticipated expiration dates for the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility remain set at June 30, 2010, for loans backed by new-issue commercial mortgage-backed securities and March 31, 2010, for loans backed by all other types of collateral. The Federal Reserve is prepared to modify these plans if necessary to support financial stability and economic growth.

[Note: In the January FOMC Statement Alternatives, strong emphasis (bold) indicates bold red underlined text in the original document.]

January FOMC Statement--Alternative A

  1. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has continued to pick up and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software appears to be picking up, but investment in structures is still contracting and firms remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Recent data indicate that housing activity remains sluggish and the level of foreclosures continues to be elevated. In light of the weakness in labor markets and prospects for a subpar economic recovery, the Committee judges that further monetary stimulus is warranted.
  2. Energy prices have risen in recent months, but core inflation has remained low. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
  3. To provide further support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to promote a more robust economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee decided to expand its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities to a total of $1.5 trillion, up from the previously announced amount of $1.25 trillion; the Committee anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the third quarter. The Federal Reserve is also in the process of purchasing about $175 billion of agency debt, and the Committee anticipates that those transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.
  4. In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve will be closing the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, and the Term Securities Lending Facility on February 1, as previously announced. In addition, the temporary liquidity swap arrangements between the Federal Reserve and other central banks will expire on February 1. The amounts provided under the Term Auction Facility will continue to be scaled back, with $50 billion in 28-day credit to be offered at the next auction on February 8; the Federal Reserve expects to offer $25 billion in 28-day credit on March 8 and will consider whether to conduct further auctions beyond that date. The anticipated expiration dates for the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility remain set at June 30 for loans backed by new-issue commercial mortgage-backed securities and March 31 for loans backed by all other types of collateral. The Federal Reserve is prepared to modify these plans if necessary to support financial stability and economic growth.

January FOMC Statement--Alternative B

  1. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software appears to be picking up, but investment in structures is still contracting and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Firms have brought inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth. Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.
  2. Energy prices have risen in recent months. However, with substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
  3. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve is in the process of purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee is gradually slowing the pace of these purchases, and it anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter. The Committee will continue to evaluate its purchases [or holdings] of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets.
  4. In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve will be closing the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, and the Term Securities Lending Facility on February 1, as previously announced. In addition, the temporary liquidity swap arrangements between the Federal Reserve and other central banks will expire on February 1. The amounts provided under the Term Auction Facility will continue to be scaled back, with $50 billion in 28-day credit to be offered at the next auction on February 8; the Federal Reserve expects to offer $25 billion in 28-day credit on March 8 and will consider whether to conduct further auctions beyond that date. The anticipated expiration dates for the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility remain set at June 30 for loans backed by new-issue commercial mortgage-backed securities and March 31 for loans backed by all other types of collateral. The Federal Reserve is prepared to modify these plans if necessary to support financial stability and economic growth.

January FOMC Statement--Alternative C

  1. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity is increasing at a solid rate and that the labor market is stabilizing. Financial market conditions have continued to become more supportive of economic growth. Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate. Business spending on equipment and software appears to be picking up, and firms have brought inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. With a sustainable economic recovery now under way, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization.
  2. Inflation has been somewhat elevated recently, reflecting a pickup in energy prices, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. The Committee expects that, with appropriate monetary policy adjustments, inflation will be at levels consistent with price stability.
  3. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant low levels of the federal funds rate for some time. The Federal Reserve is in the process of purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee is gradually slowing the pace of these purchases and anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter. The Committee will continue to evaluate the size and composition of its securities holdings in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets.
  4. In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve will be closing the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, and the Term Securities Lending Facility on February 1, as previously announced. In addition, the temporary liquidity swap arrangements between the Federal Reserve and other central banks will expire on February 1. The amounts provided under the Term Auction Facility will continue to be scaled back, with $50 billion in 28-day credit to be offered at the next auction on February 8; the Federal Reserve expects to offer $25 billion in 28-day credit on March 8 and will consider whether to conduct further auctions beyond that date. The anticipated expiration dates for the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility remain set at June 30 for loans backed by new-issue commercial mortgage-backed securities and March 31 for loans backed by all other types of collateral. The Federal Reserve is prepared to modify these plans if necessary to support financial stability and economic growth.

Table 1: Overview of Alternative Language for the January 26-27, 2010 FOMC Announcement

December FOMC January Alternatives
A B C
Economic Activity
Recent
Developments		 "has continued
to pick up"		 "has continued
to pick up"		 "has continued
to strengthen"		 "is increasing
at a solid rate"
Labor
Markets		 "the deterioration…
is abating"		 "the deterioration…
is abating"		 "the labor market
is stabilizing"
Financial
Markets		 "conditions have
become more supportive"		 --- "conditions remain
supportive"		 "conditions have
continued to become
more supportive"
Other
Factors		 fiscal and monetary
stimulus, market forces		 "housing activity
remains sluggish"		 "bank lending
continues to contract"		 ---
Outlook "likely to remain weak
for a time"		 further monetary stimulus
warranted by prospects
for subpar recovery		 pace of recovery
"likely to be moderate"		 sustainable recovery
"now under way"
Inflation
Recent
Developments		 --- energy prices have risen
but core inflation
has remained low		 energy prices have risen inflation somewhat
elevated by pickup
in energy prices
Key Factors substantial resource slack,
stable expectations		 substantial resource slack,
stable expectations		 appropriate monetary
policy adjustments,
stable expectations
Outlook "will remain subdued
for some time"		 "likely to be subdued
for some time"		 "will be at levels
consistent with price
stability"
Forward Guidance on Funds Rate Path
"exceptionally low…
for an extended period"		 "exceptionally low…for an extended period" "low…for some time"
Agency MBS Purchases
Amount $1.25 trillion $1.5 trillion $1.25 trillion
Timing by the end of
the first quarter		 by the end of
the third quarter		 by the end of
the first quarter
Evaluation of Balance Sheet Adjustments
"the timing and
overall amounts
of its purchases
of securities"		 "the timing and
overall amounts
of its purchases
of securities"		 "its purchases
[or holdings]
of securities"		 "the size and
composition of its
securities holdings"

Directives

December FOMC Meeting

The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to ¼ percent. The Committee directs the Desk to purchase agency debt and agency MBS during the intermeeting period with the aim of providing support to private credit markets and economic activity. The timing and pace of these purchases should depend on conditions in the markets for such securities and on a broader assessment of private credit market conditions. The Desk is expected to execute purchases of about $175 billion in housing-related agency debt and about $1.25 trillion of agency MBS by the end of the first quarter of 2010. The Desk is expected to gradually slow the pace of these purchases as they near completion. The Committee anticipates that outright purchases of securities will cause the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to expand significantly in coming months. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability.

January FOMC Meeting -- Alternative A

The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to ¼ percent. The Committee directs the Desk to purchase agency debt and agency MBS during the intermeeting period with the aim of providing support to private credit markets and economic activity. The timing and pace of these purchases should depend on conditions in the markets for such securities and on a broader assessment of private credit market conditions. The Desk is expected to execute purchases of about $175 billion in housing-related agency debt by the end of the first quarter and to execute purchases of about $1.5 trillion of agency MBS by the end of the third quarter. The Desk is expected to gradually slow the pace of these purchases as they near completion. The Committee anticipates that outright purchases of securities will cause the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to expand significantly in coming months. The Committee directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions to be conducted through the end of the third quarter, as directed above. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability.

January FOMC Meeting -- Alternatives B and C

The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to ¼ percent. The Committee directs the Desk to purchase agency debt and agency MBS during the intermeeting period with the aim of providing support to private credit markets and economic activity. The timing and pace of these purchases should depend on conditions in the markets for such securities and on a broader assessment of private credit market conditions. The Desk is expected to execute purchases of about $175 billion in housing-related agency debt and about $1.25 trillion of agency MBS by the end of the first quarter. The Desk is expected to gradually slow the pace of these purchases as they near completion. The Committee anticipates that outright purchases of securities will cause the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to expand significantly in coming months. The Committee directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions to be conducted through the end of the first quarter, as directed above. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability.


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