Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 2011-24
♣
Forecasting Recessions Using Stall Speeds
Jeremy J. Nalewaik
Figure 2: Output Growth Rates
| Quarter |
Real GDP, Annualized Quarterly Growth |
Real GDI, Annualized Quarterly Growth |
| 194702 |
-0.61% |
-3.49% |
| 194703 |
-0.34% |
-0.02% |
| 194704 |
6.20% |
4.86% |
| 194801 |
6.53% |
10.99% |
| 194802 |
7.55% |
10.91% |
| 194803 |
2.17% |
0.71% |
| 194804 |
0.62% |
1.64% |
| 194901 |
-5.45% |
-7.68% |
| 194902 |
-1.45% |
-2.37% |
| 194903 |
4.56% |
2.87% |
| 194904 |
-3.69% |
-5.07% |
| 195001 |
17.15% |
16.56% |
| 195002 |
12.75% |
16.85% |
| 195003 |
16.59% |
17.78% |
| 195004 |
7.23% |
8.28% |
| 195101 |
5.14% |
1.81% |
| 195102 |
6.81% |
5.05% |
| 195103 |
8.21% |
6.96% |
| 195104 |
0.68% |
3.26% |
| 195201 |
4.09% |
3.37% |
| 195202 |
0.43% |
2.00% |
| 195203 |
2.71% |
2.79% |
| 195204 |
13.87% |
12.73% |
| 195301 |
7.70% |
7.46% |
| 195302 |
3.06% |
3.00% |
| 195303 |
-2.41% |
-2.18% |
| 195304 |
-6.19% |
-8.57% |
| 195401 |
-1.89% |
1.00% |
| 195402 |
0.50% |
0.70% |
| 195403 |
4.58% |
3.59% |
| 195404 |
8.26% |
9.03% |
| 195501 |
12.01% |
11.12% |
| 195502 |
6.80% |
9.31% |
| 195503 |
5.44% |
4.78% |
| 195504 |
2.25% |
3.24% |
| 195601 |
-1.80% |
0.43% |
| 195602 |
3.17% |
3.91% |
| 195603 |
-0.50% |
-0.42% |
| 195604 |
6.71% |
7.22% |
| 195701 |
2.48% |
0.69% |
| 195702 |
-0.97% |
-0.23% |
| 195703 |
3.91% |
1.89% |
| 195704 |
-4.15% |
-3.92% |
| 195801 |
-10.39% |
-8.51% |
| 195802 |
2.47% |
0.59% |
| 195803 |
9.72% |
7.48% |
| 195804 |
9.65% |
10.15% |
| 195901 |
8.33% |
9.96% |
| 195902 |
10.50% |
12.32% |
| 195903 |
-0.47% |
-3.39% |
| 195904 |
1.41% |
2.79% |
| 196001 |
9.28% |
9.52% |
| 196002 |
-1.86% |
-0.85% |
| 196003 |
0.65% |
-0.44% |
| 196004 |
-5.03% |
-2.26% |
| 196101 |
2.40% |
0.70% |
| 196102 |
7.69% |
7.04% |
| 196103 |
6.62% |
6.11% |
| 196104 |
8.39% |
9.35% |
| 196201 |
7.37% |
5.85% |
| 196202 |
4.49% |
4.22% |
| 196203 |
3.75% |
3.71% |
| 196204 |
0.99% |
3.93% |
| 196301 |
5.33% |
4.16% |
| 196302 |
5.10% |
6.22% |
| 196303 |
7.75% |
5.23% |
| 196304 |
3.08% |
3.87% |
| 196401 |
9.27% |
7.00% |
| 196402 |
4.68% |
5.63% |
| 196403 |
5.55% |
5.85% |
| 196404 |
1.11% |
3.60% |
| 196501 |
10.19% |
9.25% |
| 196502 |
5.54% |
5.25% |
| 196503 |
8.36% |
5.78% |
| 196504 |
10.00% |
8.97% |
| 196601 |
10.18% |
8.93% |
| 196602 |
1.34% |
2.47% |
| 196603 |
2.66% |
2.53% |
| 196604 |
3.28% |
3.31% |
| 196701 |
3.57% |
2.01% |
| 196702 |
0.09% |
2.13% |
| 196703 |
3.22% |
4.26% |
| 196704 |
3.09% |
4.04% |
| 196801 |
8.50% |
6.20% |
| 196802 |
6.97% |
6.14% |
| 196803 |
2.77% |
5.12% |
| 196804 |
1.74% |
2.45% |
| 196901 |
6.45% |
4.02% |
| 196902 |
1.17% |
2.63% |
| 196903 |
2.55% |
2.96% |
| 196904 |
-1.86% |
-0.62% |
| 197001 |
-0.63% |
-2.90% |
| 197002 |
0.73% |
-0.17% |
| 197003 |
3.61% |
3.50% |
| 197004 |
-4.18% |
-3.90% |
| 197101 |
11.50% |
8.42% |
| 197102 |
2.29% |
2.93% |
| 197103 |
3.23% |
3.47% |
| 197104 |
1.12% |
5.12% |
| 197201 |
7.35% |
5.66% |
| 197202 |
9.83% |
5.46% |
| 197203 |
3.89% |
6.89% |
| 197204 |
6.75% |
11.27% |
| 197301 |
10.64% |
7.54% |
| 197302 |
4.71% |
2.18% |
| 197303 |
-2.12% |
1.02% |
| 197304 |
3.87% |
4.60% |
| 197401 |
-3.47% |
-3.41% |
| 197402 |
1.03% |
-1.62% |
| 197403 |
-3.90% |
-1.69% |
| 197404 |
-1.57% |
-5.18% |
| 197501 |
-4.77% |
-4.74% |
| 197502 |
3.09% |
3.66% |
| 197503 |
6.91% |
8.55% |
| 197504 |
5.33% |
4.08% |
| 197601 |
9.41% |
8.48% |
| 197602 |
3.04% |
2.54% |
| 197603 |
1.98% |
2.89% |
| 197604 |
2.93% |
1.36% |
| 197701 |
4.73% |
3.88% |
| 197702 |
8.18% |
10.52% |
| 197703 |
7.35% |
8.07% |
| 197704 |
-0.08% |
2.45% |
| 197801 |
1.37% |
2.06% |
| 197802 |
16.69% |
12.83% |
| 197803 |
3.98% |
2.68% |
| 197804 |
5.39% |
3.42% |
| 197901 |
0.67% |
3.48% |
| 197902 |
0.38% |
-2.29% |
| 197903 |
2.91% |
0.57% |
| 197904 |
1.11% |
2.81% |
| 198001 |
1.30% |
0.01% |
| 198002 |
-7.95% |
-7.41% |
| 198003 |
-0.74% |
2.19% |
| 198004 |
7.61% |
10.62% |
| 198101 |
8.57% |
3.50% |
| 198102 |
-3.15% |
-0.15% |
| 198103 |
4.95% |
6.42% |
| 198104 |
-4.89% |
-4.86% |
| 198201 |
-6.41% |
-2.93% |
| 198202 |
2.19% |
1.88% |
| 198203 |
-1.53% |
-1.86% |
| 198204 |
0.31% |
-1.90% |
| 198301 |
5.07% |
4.79% |
| 198302 |
9.30% |
6.77% |
| 198303 |
8.13% |
5.74% |
| 198304 |
8.53% |
8.60% |
| 198401 |
7.99% |
11.17% |
| 198402 |
7.08% |
7.75% |
| 198403 |
3.94% |
4.67% |
| 198404 |
3.30% |
4.58% |
| 198501 |
3.83% |
3.30% |
| 198502 |
3.43% |
2.46% |
| 198503 |
6.40% |
4.67% |
| 198504 |
3.07% |
2.43% |
| 198601 |
3.90% |
4.29% |
| 198602 |
1.62% |
1.00% |
| 198603 |
3.91% |
2.42% |
| 198604 |
1.95% |
2.86% |
| 198701 |
2.23% |
3.38% |
| 198702 |
4.32% |
6.35% |
| 198703 |
3.52% |
6.12% |
| 198704 |
7.02% |
5.80% |
| 198801 |
2.09% |
4.69% |
| 198802 |
5.24% |
4.63% |
| 198803 |
2.08% |
3.29% |
| 198804 |
5.45% |
5.54% |
| 198901 |
3.81% |
2.21% |
| 198902 |
3.03% |
-1.02% |
| 198903 |
3.21% |
1.78% |
| 198904 |
0.88% |
0.55% |
| 199001 |
4.24% |
3.38% |
| 199002 |
1.60% |
2.77% |
| 199003 |
-0.00% |
-0.44% |
| 199004 |
-3.46% |
-2.03% |
| 199101 |
-1.92% |
-0.85% |
| 199102 |
2.72% |
1.05% |
| 199103 |
1.69% |
0.78% |
| 199104 |
1.58% |
1.33% |
| 199201 |
4.46% |
6.31% |
| 199202 |
4.32% |
3.14% |
| 199203 |
4.19% |
1.23% |
| 199204 |
4.27% |
4.12% |
| 199301 |
0.74% |
0.09% |
| 199302 |
2.58% |
4.51% |
| 199303 |
2.12% |
1.13% |
| 199304 |
5.39% |
6.71% |
| 199401 |
3.95% |
4.65% |
| 199402 |
5.59% |
4.96% |
| 199403 |
2.60% |
4.31% |
| 199404 |
4.52% |
4.87% |
| 199501 |
0.99% |
2.08% |
| 199502 |
0.86% |
1.93% |
| 199503 |
3.40% |
4.73% |
| 199504 |
2.82% |
2.47% |
| 199601 |
2.77% |
3.79% |
| 199602 |
7.10% |
6.39% |
| 199603 |
3.52% |
3.94% |
| 199604 |
4.44% |
5.24% |
| 199701 |
3.11% |
4.33% |
| 199702 |
6.07% |
4.71% |
| 199703 |
5.11% |
6.69% |
| 199704 |
3.10% |
4.87% |
| 199801 |
3.83% |
4.32% |
| 199802 |
3.65% |
5.76% |
| 199803 |
5.38% |
5.97% |
| 199804 |
7.11% |
3.95% |
| 199901 |
3.61% |
5.46% |
| 199902 |
3.16% |
2.71% |
| 199903 |
5.19% |
3.67% |
| 199904 |
7.38% |
7.06% |
| 200001 |
1.05% |
8.39% |
| 200002 |
8.04% |
2.24% |
| 200003 |
0.33% |
2.98% |
| 200004 |
2.39% |
-0.79% |
| 200101 |
-1.31% |
4.07% |
| 200102 |
2.65% |
-1.41% |
| 200103 |
-1.09% |
-1.83% |
| 200104 |
1.42% |
-1.91% |
| 200201 |
3.48% |
5.07% |
| 200202 |
2.14% |
2.20% |
| 200203 |
2.01% |
-0.48% |
| 200204 |
0.08% |
1.62% |
| 200301 |
1.63% |
1.13% |
| 200302 |
3.23% |
4.07% |
| 200303 |
6.88% |
3.45% |
| 200304 |
3.64% |
4.40% |
| 200401 |
2.85% |
3.29% |
| 200402 |
2.87% |
3.94% |
| 200403 |
2.97% |
4.31% |
| 200404 |
3.52% |
2.95% |
| 200501 |
4.05% |
4.26% |
| 200502 |
1.72% |
2.96% |
| 200503 |
3.08% |
3.03% |
| 200504 |
2.08% |
4.82% |
| 200601 |
5.35% |
6.44% |
| 200602 |
1.45% |
1.33% |
| 200603 |
0.10% |
1.92% |
| 200604 |
2.96% |
2.65% |
| 200701 |
0.88% |
-2.34% |
| 200702 |
3.24% |
0.16% |
| 200703 |
2.27% |
-1.95% |
| 200704 |
2.89% |
2.47% |
| 200801 |
-0.73% |
0.85% |
| 200802 |
0.60% |
-2.46% |
| 200803 |
-4.00% |
-2.63% |
| 200804 |
-6.77% |
-6.90% |
| 200901 |
-4.87% |
-4.89% |
| 200902 |
-0.70% |
-1.61% |
| 200903 |
1.60% |
-0.02% |
| 200904 |
5.01% |
6.71% |
| 201001 |
3.73% |
4.11% |
| 201002 |
1.72% |
2.70% |
Figure 4: Output Growth Rates
| Quarter |
Real GDP, Annualized Two-Quarter Growth |
Real GDI, Annualized Two-Quarter Growth |
| 194702 |
. |
. |
| 194703 |
-0.47% |
-1.77% |
| 194704 |
2.88% |
2.39% |
| 194801 |
6.37% |
7.88% |
| 194802 |
7.04% |
10.95% |
| 194803 |
4.83% |
5.69% |
| 194804 |
1.39% |
1.17% |
| 194901 |
-2.46% |
-3.13% |
| 194902 |
-3.47% |
-5.06% |
| 194903 |
1.51% |
0.22% |
| 194904 |
0.35% |
-1.18% |
| 195001 |
6.22% |
5.19% |
| 195002 |
14.93% |
16.71% |
| 195003 |
14.66% |
17.31% |
| 195004 |
11.82% |
12.93% |
| 195101 |
6.18% |
5.00% |
| 195102 |
5.97% |
3.42% |
| 195103 |
7.51% |
6.00% |
| 195104 |
4.38% |
5.10% |
| 195201 |
2.37% |
3.32% |
| 195202 |
2.25% |
2.68% |
| 195203 |
1.57% |
2.39% |
| 195204 |
8.15% |
7.64% |
| 195301 |
10.74% |
10.06% |
| 195302 |
5.36% |
5.21% |
| 195303 |
0.29% |
0.38% |
| 195304 |
-4.32% |
-5.43% |
| 195401 |
-4.06% |
-3.90% |
| 195402 |
-0.70% |
0.85% |
| 195403 |
2.52% |
2.14% |
| 195404 |
6.41% |
6.27% |
| 195501 |
10.12% |
10.07% |
| 195502 |
9.37% |
10.21% |
| 195503 |
6.12% |
7.02% |
| 195504 |
3.83% |
4.01% |
| 195601 |
0.21% |
1.83% |
| 195602 |
0.66% |
2.15% |
| 195603 |
1.32% |
1.72% |
| 195604 |
3.04% |
3.33% |
| 195701 |
4.57% |
3.91% |
| 195702 |
0.74% |
0.23% |
| 195703 |
1.44% |
0.82% |
| 195704 |
-0.20% |
-1.06% |
| 195801 |
-7.32% |
-6.24% |
| 195802 |
-4.18% |
-4.07% |
| 195803 |
6.03% |
3.97% |
| 195804 |
9.69% |
8.80% |
| 195901 |
8.99% |
10.05% |
| 195902 |
9.41% |
11.13% |
| 195903 |
4.87% |
4.17% |
| 195904 |
0.46% |
-0.34% |
| 196001 |
5.27% |
6.11% |
| 196002 |
3.56% |
4.21% |
| 196003 |
-0.61% |
-0.65% |
| 196004 |
-2.23% |
-1.35% |
| 196101 |
-1.38% |
-0.80% |
| 196102 |
5.01% |
3.82% |
| 196103 |
7.15% |
6.57% |
| 196104 |
7.50% |
7.71% |
| 196201 |
7.88% |
7.58% |
| 196202 |
5.92% |
5.03% |
| 196203 |
4.12% |
3.96% |
| 196204 |
2.36% |
3.82% |
| 196301 |
3.13% |
4.05% |
| 196302 |
5.21% |
5.18% |
| 196303 |
6.42% |
5.72% |
| 196304 |
5.39% |
4.55% |
| 196401 |
6.13% |
5.42% |
| 196402 |
6.95% |
6.31% |
| 196403 |
5.11% |
5.74% |
| 196404 |
3.31% |
4.72% |
| 196501 |
5.56% |
6.39% |
| 196502 |
7.84% |
7.23% |
| 196503 |
6.94% |
5.52% |
| 196504 |
9.18% |
7.37% |
| 196601 |
10.09% |
8.95% |
| 196602 |
5.67% |
5.65% |
| 196603 |
2.00% |
2.50% |
| 196604 |
2.97% |
2.92% |
| 196701 |
3.42% |
2.66% |
| 196702 |
1.82% |
2.07% |
| 196703 |
1.65% |
3.19% |
| 196704 |
3.16% |
4.15% |
| 196801 |
5.76% |
5.11% |
| 196802 |
7.73% |
6.17% |
| 196803 |
4.85% |
5.63% |
| 196804 |
2.25% |
3.78% |
| 196901 |
4.07% |
3.23% |
| 196902 |
3.78% |
3.32% |
| 196903 |
1.86% |
2.79% |
| 196904 |
0.32% |
1.15% |
| 197001 |
-1.25% |
-1.77% |
| 197002 |
0.05% |
-1.55% |
| 197003 |
2.16% |
1.65% |
| 197004 |
-0.36% |
-0.27% |
| 197101 |
3.36% |
2.07% |
| 197102 |
6.79% |
5.64% |
| 197103 |
2.76% |
3.20% |
| 197104 |
2.17% |
4.29% |
| 197201 |
4.19% |
5.39% |
| 197202 |
8.58% |
5.56% |
| 197203 |
6.82% |
6.17% |
| 197204 |
5.31% |
9.06% |
| 197301 |
8.68% |
9.39% |
| 197302 |
7.63% |
4.82% |
| 197303 |
1.24% |
1.60% |
| 197304 |
0.83% |
2.80% |
| 197401 |
0.13% |
0.52% |
| 197402 |
-1.24% |
-2.52% |
| 197403 |
-1.47% |
-1.66% |
| 197404 |
-2.74% |
-3.45% |
| 197501 |
-3.18% |
-4.96% |
| 197502 |
-0.92% |
-0.62% |
| 197503 |
4.98% |
6.08% |
| 197504 |
6.12% |
6.29% |
| 197601 |
7.35% |
6.26% |
| 197602 |
6.18% |
5.47% |
| 197603 |
2.51% |
2.71% |
| 197604 |
2.46% |
2.12% |
| 197701 |
3.83% |
2.61% |
| 197702 |
6.44% |
7.15% |
| 197703 |
7.77% |
9.29% |
| 197704 |
3.57% |
5.22% |
| 197801 |
0.64% |
2.25% |
| 197802 |
8.76% |
7.31% |
| 197803 |
10.15% |
7.63% |
| 197804 |
4.68% |
3.05% |
| 197901 |
3.00% |
3.45% |
| 197902 |
0.52% |
0.55% |
| 197903 |
1.63% |
-0.87% |
| 197904 |
2.00% |
1.68% |
| 198001 |
1.20% |
1.40% |
| 198002 |
-3.44% |
-3.77% |
| 198003 |
-4.41% |
-2.72% |
| 198004 |
3.35% |
6.32% |
| 198101 |
8.09% |
7.00% |
| 198102 |
2.54% |
1.66% |
| 198103 |
0.82% |
3.08% |
| 198104 |
-0.09% |
0.62% |
| 198201 |
-5.65% |
-3.90% |
| 198202 |
-2.20% |
-0.56% |
| 198203 |
0.31% |
-0.01% |
| 198204 |
-0.61% |
-1.88% |
| 198301 |
2.66% |
1.39% |
| 198302 |
7.16% |
5.77% |
| 198303 |
8.71% |
6.25% |
| 198304 |
8.33% |
7.16% |
| 198401 |
8.26% |
9.88% |
| 198402 |
7.54% |
9.44% |
| 198403 |
5.50% |
6.19% |
| 198404 |
3.62% |
4.62% |
| 198501 |
3.56% |
3.94% |
| 198502 |
3.63% |
2.88% |
| 198503 |
4.90% |
3.56% |
| 198504 |
4.72% |
3.55% |
| 198601 |
3.49% |
3.36% |
| 198602 |
2.75% |
2.63% |
| 198603 |
2.76% |
1.70% |
| 198604 |
2.93% |
2.64% |
| 198701 |
2.09% |
3.12% |
| 198702 |
3.27% |
4.86% |
| 198703 |
3.92% |
6.23% |
| 198704 |
5.25% |
5.96% |
| 198801 |
4.52% |
5.24% |
| 198802 |
3.65% |
4.66% |
| 198803 |
3.65% |
3.96% |
| 198804 |
3.75% |
4.41% |
| 198901 |
4.63% |
3.86% |
| 198902 |
3.42% |
0.59% |
| 198903 |
3.12% |
0.37% |
| 198904 |
2.04% |
1.16% |
| 199001 |
2.55% |
1.95% |
| 199002 |
2.91% |
3.07% |
| 199003 |
0.79% |
1.15% |
| 199004 |
-1.75% |
-1.24% |
| 199101 |
-2.69% |
-1.44% |
| 199102 |
0.37% |
0.09% |
| 199103 |
2.21% |
0.91% |
| 199104 |
1.64% |
1.05% |
| 199201 |
3.01% |
3.79% |
| 199202 |
4.39% |
4.72% |
| 199203 |
4.26% |
2.18% |
| 199204 |
4.23% |
2.66% |
| 199301 |
2.49% |
2.08% |
| 199302 |
1.66% |
2.28% |
| 199303 |
2.35% |
2.81% |
| 199304 |
3.74% |
3.88% |
| 199401 |
4.67% |
5.67% |
| 199402 |
4.76% |
4.80% |
| 199403 |
4.08% |
4.63% |
| 199404 |
3.56% |
4.59% |
| 199501 |
2.74% |
3.46% |
| 199502 |
0.92% |
2.01% |
| 199503 |
2.13% |
3.32% |
| 199504 |
3.11% |
3.59% |
| 199601 |
2.79% |
3.13% |
| 199602 |
4.91% |
5.08% |
| 199603 |
5.30% |
5.16% |
| 199604 |
3.98% |
4.59% |
| 199701 |
3.77% |
4.78% |
| 199702 |
4.58% |
4.52% |
| 199703 |
5.59% |
5.69% |
| 199704 |
4.10% |
5.77% |
| 199801 |
3.47% |
4.59% |
| 199802 |
3.74% |
5.04% |
| 199803 |
4.51% |
5.86% |
| 199804 |
6.24% |
4.95% |
| 199901 |
5.34% |
4.70% |
| 199902 |
3.39% |
4.07% |
| 199903 |
4.17% |
3.19% |
| 199904 |
6.28% |
5.36% |
| 200001 |
4.17% |
7.73% |
| 200002 |
4.48% |
5.27% |
| 200003 |
4.11% |
2.61% |
| 200004 |
1.35% |
1.08% |
| 200101 |
0.52% |
1.61% |
| 200102 |
0.65% |
1.29% |
| 200103 |
0.76% |
-1.62% |
| 200104 |
0.15% |
-1.87% |
| 200201 |
2.45% |
1.52% |
| 200202 |
2.81% |
3.62% |
| 200203 |
2.08% |
0.85% |
| 200204 |
1.04% |
0.57% |
| 200301 |
0.85% |
1.37% |
| 200302 |
2.43% |
2.59% |
| 200303 |
5.04% |
3.76% |
| 200304 |
5.25% |
3.92% |
| 200401 |
3.24% |
3.84% |
| 200402 |
2.86% |
3.62% |
| 200403 |
2.92% |
4.13% |
| 200404 |
3.24% |
3.63% |
| 200501 |
3.78% |
3.60% |
| 200502 |
2.88% |
3.61% |
| 200503 |
2.39% |
3.00% |
| 200504 |
2.58% |
3.92% |
| 200601 |
3.70% |
5.63% |
| 200602 |
3.38% |
3.85% |
| 200603 |
0.78% |
1.62% |
| 200604 |
1.52% |
2.28% |
| 200701 |
1.91% |
0.12% |
| 200702 |
2.05% |
-1.10% |
| 200703 |
2.76% |
-0.90% |
| 200704 |
2.58% |
0.23% |
| 200801 |
1.07% |
1.66% |
| 200802 |
-0.07% |
-0.82% |
| 200803 |
-1.73% |
-2.54% |
| 200804 |
-5.39% |
-4.79% |
| 200901 |
-5.82% |
-5.90% |
| 200902 |
-2.81% |
-3.27% |
| 200903 |
0.44% |
-0.82% |
| 200904 |
3.29% |
3.29% |
| 201001 |
4.37% |
5.40% |
| 201002 |
2.67% |
3.20% |
Figure 6: Output Growth Rates
| Quarter |
Real GDP, Four-Quarter Growth |
Real GDI, Four-Quarter Growth |
| 194702 |
. |
. |
| 194703 |
. |
. |
| 194704 |
. |
. |
| 194801 |
2.89% |
2.94% |
| 194802 |
4.94% |
6.59% |
| 194803 |
5.59% |
6.78% |
| 194804 |
4.18% |
5.95% |
| 194901 |
1.12% |
1.18% |
| 194902 |
-1.07% |
-1.99% |
| 194903 |
-0.49% |
-1.47% |
| 194904 |
-1.58% |
-3.14% |
| 195001 |
3.84% |
2.67% |
| 195002 |
7.39% |
7.39% |
| 195003 |
10.36% |
11.09% |
| 195004 |
13.36% |
14.80% |
| 195101 |
10.34% |
10.98% |
| 195102 |
8.85% |
8.07% |
| 195103 |
6.84% |
5.50% |
| 195104 |
5.17% |
4.25% |
| 195201 |
4.91% |
4.65% |
| 195202 |
3.31% |
3.88% |
| 195203 |
1.97% |
2.85% |
| 195204 |
5.15% |
5.13% |
| 195301 |
6.06% |
6.16% |
| 195302 |
6.74% |
6.42% |
| 195303 |
5.39% |
5.11% |
| 195304 |
0.40% |
-0.25% |
| 195401 |
-1.91% |
-1.79% |
| 195402 |
-2.53% |
-2.34% |
| 195403 |
-0.82% |
-0.93% |
| 195404 |
2.79% |
3.53% |
| 195501 |
6.25% |
6.03% |
| 195502 |
7.88% |
8.23% |
| 195503 |
8.10% |
8.53% |
| 195504 |
6.57% |
7.07% |
| 195601 |
3.12% |
4.39% |
| 195602 |
2.23% |
3.08% |
| 195603 |
0.76% |
1.77% |
| 195604 |
1.84% |
2.74% |
| 195701 |
2.93% |
2.81% |
| 195702 |
1.89% |
1.77% |
| 195703 |
3.00% |
2.35% |
| 195704 |
0.27% |
-0.42% |
| 195801 |
-3.04% |
-2.77% |
| 195802 |
-2.21% |
-2.58% |
| 195803 |
-0.87% |
-1.27% |
| 195804 |
2.52% |
2.16% |
| 195901 |
7.50% |
6.97% |
| 195902 |
9.55% |
9.96% |
| 195903 |
6.91% |
7.07% |
| 195904 |
4.84% |
5.24% |
| 196001 |
5.07% |
5.13% |
| 196002 |
2.00% |
1.91% |
| 196003 |
2.29% |
2.67% |
| 196004 |
0.62% |
1.39% |
| 196101 |
-1.00% |
-0.72% |
| 196102 |
1.33% |
1.20% |
| 196103 |
2.80% |
2.82% |
| 196104 |
6.25% |
5.75% |
| 196201 |
7.52% |
7.08% |
| 196202 |
6.71% |
6.36% |
| 196203 |
5.98% |
5.76% |
| 196204 |
4.12% |
4.43% |
| 196301 |
3.63% |
4.01% |
| 196302 |
3.78% |
4.50% |
| 196303 |
4.76% |
4.88% |
| 196304 |
5.30% |
4.87% |
| 196401 |
6.27% |
5.57% |
| 196402 |
6.17% |
5.43% |
| 196403 |
5.62% |
5.58% |
| 196404 |
5.11% |
5.51% |
| 196501 |
5.34% |
6.06% |
| 196502 |
5.55% |
5.97% |
| 196503 |
6.25% |
5.95% |
| 196504 |
8.51% |
7.30% |
| 196601 |
8.51% |
7.22% |
| 196602 |
7.41% |
6.50% |
| 196603 |
5.97% |
5.67% |
| 196604 |
4.31% |
4.28% |
| 196701 |
2.71% |
2.58% |
| 196702 |
2.39% |
2.49% |
| 196703 |
2.53% |
2.92% |
| 196704 |
2.48% |
3.10% |
| 196801 |
3.68% |
4.15% |
| 196802 |
5.42% |
5.15% |
| 196803 |
5.30% |
5.37% |
| 196804 |
4.96% |
4.97% |
| 196901 |
4.46% |
4.42% |
| 196902 |
3.01% |
3.55% |
| 196903 |
2.96% |
3.01% |
| 196904 |
2.03% |
2.23% |
| 197001 |
0.29% |
0.49% |
| 197002 |
0.18% |
-0.21% |
| 197003 |
0.44% |
-0.07% |
| 197004 |
-0.16% |
-0.91% |
| 197101 |
2.76% |
1.86% |
| 197102 |
3.15% |
2.64% |
| 197103 |
3.06% |
2.63% |
| 197104 |
4.46% |
4.96% |
| 197201 |
3.47% |
4.29% |
| 197202 |
5.33% |
4.92% |
| 197203 |
5.49% |
5.78% |
| 197204 |
6.93% |
7.29% |
| 197301 |
7.74% |
7.77% |
| 197302 |
6.46% |
6.92% |
| 197303 |
4.89% |
5.42% |
| 197304 |
4.18% |
3.81% |
| 197401 |
0.68% |
1.06% |
| 197402 |
-0.21% |
0.10% |
| 197403 |
-0.67% |
-0.58% |
| 197404 |
-1.99% |
-2.99% |
| 197501 |
-2.33% |
-3.32% |
| 197502 |
-1.83% |
-2.05% |
| 197503 |
0.82% |
0.41% |
| 197504 |
2.54% |
2.77% |
| 197601 |
6.16% |
6.17% |
| 197602 |
6.15% |
5.88% |
| 197603 |
4.90% |
4.47% |
| 197604 |
4.30% |
3.78% |
| 197701 |
3.16% |
2.66% |
| 197702 |
4.43% |
4.60% |
| 197703 |
5.78% |
5.90% |
| 197704 |
4.99% |
6.18% |
| 197801 |
4.14% |
5.71% |
| 197802 |
6.13% |
6.26% |
| 197803 |
5.29% |
4.91% |
| 197804 |
6.70% |
5.16% |
| 197901 |
6.52% |
5.52% |
| 197902 |
2.58% |
1.79% |
| 197903 |
2.32% |
1.27% |
| 197904 |
1.26% |
1.12% |
| 198001 |
1.42% |
0.26% |
| 198002 |
-0.75% |
-1.08% |
| 198003 |
-1.65% |
-0.69% |
| 198004 |
-0.10% |
1.15% |
| 198101 |
1.65% |
2.02% |
| 198102 |
2.94% |
3.97% |
| 198103 |
4.39% |
5.02% |
| 198104 |
1.22% |
1.14% |
| 198201 |
-2.47% |
-0.47% |
| 198202 |
-1.15% |
0.03% |
| 198203 |
-2.72% |
-1.98% |
| 198204 |
-1.41% |
-1.22% |
| 198301 |
1.48% |
0.69% |
| 198302 |
3.20% |
1.88% |
| 198303 |
5.64% |
3.79% |
| 198304 |
7.74% |
6.46% |
| 198401 |
8.48% |
8.05% |
| 198402 |
7.93% |
8.30% |
| 198403 |
6.87% |
8.02% |
| 198404 |
5.56% |
7.01% |
| 198501 |
4.53% |
5.06% |
| 198502 |
3.62% |
3.75% |
| 198503 |
4.23% |
3.75% |
| 198504 |
4.17% |
3.21% |
| 198601 |
4.19% |
3.46% |
| 198602 |
3.73% |
3.09% |
| 198603 |
3.12% |
2.53% |
| 198604 |
2.84% |
2.63% |
| 198701 |
2.42% |
2.41% |
| 198702 |
3.10% |
3.74% |
| 198703 |
3.00% |
4.66% |
| 198704 |
4.26% |
5.40% |
| 198801 |
4.22% |
5.74% |
| 198802 |
4.45% |
5.31% |
| 198803 |
4.08% |
4.60% |
| 198804 |
3.70% |
4.53% |
| 198901 |
4.14% |
3.91% |
| 198902 |
3.58% |
2.48% |
| 198903 |
3.87% |
2.10% |
| 198904 |
2.72% |
0.87% |
| 199001 |
2.83% |
1.16% |
| 199002 |
2.47% |
2.11% |
| 199003 |
1.67% |
1.55% |
| 199004 |
0.56% |
0.90% |
| 199101 |
-0.97% |
-0.15% |
| 199102 |
-0.69% |
-0.57% |
| 199103 |
-0.27% |
-0.27% |
| 199104 |
1.00% |
0.57% |
| 199201 |
2.61% |
2.34% |
| 199202 |
3.00% |
2.87% |
| 199203 |
3.63% |
2.98% |
| 199204 |
4.31% |
3.68% |
| 199301 |
3.37% |
2.13% |
| 199302 |
2.94% |
2.47% |
| 199303 |
2.42% |
2.44% |
| 199304 |
2.69% |
3.08% |
| 199401 |
3.50% |
4.23% |
| 199402 |
4.25% |
4.34% |
| 199403 |
4.37% |
5.15% |
| 199404 |
4.16% |
4.69% |
| 199501 |
3.41% |
4.05% |
| 199502 |
2.23% |
3.29% |
| 199503 |
2.43% |
3.39% |
| 199504 |
2.01% |
2.80% |
| 199601 |
2.46% |
3.22% |
| 199602 |
4.01% |
4.33% |
| 199603 |
4.04% |
4.14% |
| 199604 |
4.44% |
4.83% |
| 199701 |
4.53% |
4.97% |
| 199702 |
4.28% |
4.55% |
| 199703 |
4.68% |
5.24% |
| 199704 |
4.34% |
5.14% |
| 199801 |
4.52% |
5.14% |
| 199802 |
3.92% |
5.41% |
| 199803 |
3.99% |
5.23% |
| 199804 |
4.98% |
5.00% |
| 199901 |
4.93% |
5.28% |
| 199902 |
4.80% |
4.51% |
| 199903 |
4.75% |
3.94% |
| 199904 |
4.82% |
4.71% |
| 200001 |
4.17% |
5.43% |
| 200002 |
5.38% |
5.31% |
| 200003 |
4.14% |
5.14% |
| 200004 |
2.91% |
3.15% |
| 200101 |
2.30% |
2.11% |
| 200102 |
1.00% |
1.19% |
| 200103 |
0.64% |
-0.02% |
| 200104 |
0.40% |
-0.30% |
| 200201 |
1.60% |
-0.06% |
| 200202 |
1.47% |
0.84% |
| 200203 |
2.26% |
1.18% |
| 200204 |
1.92% |
2.08% |
| 200301 |
1.46% |
1.11% |
| 200302 |
1.73% |
1.57% |
| 200303 |
2.92% |
2.56% |
| 200304 |
3.83% |
3.25% |
| 200401 |
4.14% |
3.80% |
| 200402 |
4.05% |
3.77% |
| 200403 |
3.08% |
3.98% |
| 200404 |
3.05% |
3.62% |
| 200501 |
3.35% |
3.86% |
| 200502 |
3.06% |
3.62% |
| 200503 |
3.09% |
3.30% |
| 200504 |
2.73% |
3.76% |
| 200601 |
3.05% |
4.30% |
| 200602 |
2.98% |
3.89% |
| 200603 |
2.23% |
3.61% |
| 200604 |
2.45% |
3.06% |
| 200701 |
1.34% |
0.87% |
| 200702 |
1.79% |
0.58% |
| 200703 |
2.33% |
-0.39% |
| 200704 |
2.32% |
-0.43% |
| 200801 |
1.91% |
0.37% |
| 200802 |
1.25% |
-0.29% |
| 200803 |
-0.34% |
-0.47% |
| 200804 |
-2.77% |
-2.83% |
| 200901 |
-3.80% |
-4.24% |
| 200902 |
-4.11% |
-4.03% |
| 200903 |
-2.74% |
-3.39% |
| 200904 |
0.19% |
-0.04% |
| 201001 |
2.39% |
2.24% |
| 201002 |
2.98% |
3.25% |
Figure 7: Two-State Markov Switching Model, GDP and GDI
| Quarter |
Smoothed Probabilities of Low Growth State |
| 195904 |
0 |
| 196001 |
0.0014 |
| 196002 |
0.8783 |
| 196003 |
0.9721 |
| 196004 |
0.9785 |
| 196101 |
0.703 |
| 196102 |
0.0084 |
| 196103 |
0.0007 |
| 196104 |
0 |
| 196201 |
0.0007 |
| 196202 |
0.0024 |
| 196203 |
0.004 |
| 196204 |
0.003 |
| 196301 |
0.0027 |
| 196302 |
0.0005 |
| 196303 |
0.0011 |
| 196304 |
0.0027 |
| 196401 |
0.0003 |
| 196402 |
0.0006 |
| 196403 |
0.0006 |
| 196404 |
0.0031 |
| 196501 |
0 |
| 196502 |
0.0009 |
| 196503 |
0.0007 |
| 196504 |
0 |
| 196601 |
0.0001 |
| 196602 |
0.0148 |
| 196603 |
0.0201 |
| 196604 |
0.0186 |
| 196701 |
0.0354 |
| 196702 |
0.0256 |
| 196703 |
0.0053 |
| 196704 |
0.0029 |
| 196801 |
0.0005 |
| 196802 |
0.0005 |
| 196803 |
0.0019 |
| 196804 |
0.0199 |
| 196901 |
0.0311 |
| 196902 |
0.1284 |
| 196903 |
0.3354 |
| 196904 |
0.9157 |
| 197001 |
0.9962 |
| 197002 |
0.9792 |
| 197003 |
0.8938 |
| 197004 |
0.9551 |
| 197101 |
0.006 |
| 197102 |
0.0088 |
| 197103 |
0.0056 |
| 197104 |
0.0011 |
| 197201 |
0.0007 |
| 197202 |
0.0009 |
| 197203 |
0.0002 |
| 197204 |
0 |
| 197301 |
0.0011 |
| 197302 |
0.1083 |
| 197303 |
0.221 |
| 197304 |
0.2539 |
| 197401 |
0.99 |
| 197402 |
0.9987 |
| 197403 |
0.999 |
| 197404 |
1 |
| 197501 |
0.9964 |
| 197502 |
0.17 |
| 197503 |
0.0007 |
| 197504 |
0.0024 |
| 197601 |
0.0001 |
| 197602 |
0.0165 |
| 197603 |
0.0241 |
| 197604 |
0.0418 |
| 197701 |
0.009 |
| 197702 |
0 |
| 197703 |
0.0001 |
| 197704 |
0.0136 |
| 197801 |
0.0176 |
| 197802 |
0 |
| 197803 |
0.0301 |
| 197804 |
0.0689 |
| 197901 |
0.22 |
| 197902 |
0.9524 |
| 197903 |
0.9557 |
| 197904 |
0.923 |
| 198001 |
0.9833 |
| 198002 |
0.9994 |
| 198003 |
0.3848 |
| 198004 |
0.0007 |
| 198101 |
0.0415 |
| 198102 |
0.1628 |
| 198103 |
0.1056 |
| 198104 |
0.9965 |
| 198201 |
0.9991 |
| 198202 |
0.9808 |
| 198203 |
0.9951 |
| 198204 |
0.96 |
| 198301 |
0.0745 |
| 198302 |
0.0015 |
| 198303 |
0.0007 |
| 198304 |
0.0001 |
| 198401 |
0 |
| 198402 |
0.0001 |
| 198403 |
0.0015 |
| 198404 |
0.0022 |
| 198501 |
0.008 |
| 198502 |
0.0138 |
| 198503 |
0.0048 |
| 198504 |
0.016 |
| 198601 |
0.0137 |
| 198602 |
0.0654 |
| 198603 |
0.0446 |
| 198604 |
0.0217 |
| 198701 |
0.0082 |
| 198702 |
0.0005 |
| 198703 |
0.0004 |
| 198704 |
0.0006 |
| 198801 |
0.0014 |
| 198802 |
0.0024 |
| 198803 |
0.0088 |
| 198804 |
0.0194 |
| 198901 |
0.3589 |
| 198902 |
0.8119 |
| 198903 |
0.7935 |
| 198904 |
0.7859 |
| 199001 |
0.6666 |
| 199002 |
0.728 |
| 199003 |
0.9602 |
| 199004 |
0.9964 |
| 199101 |
0.9889 |
| 199102 |
0.9196 |
| 199103 |
0.7969 |
| 199104 |
0.4899 |
| 199201 |
0.0227 |
| 199202 |
0.0334 |
| 199203 |
0.0718 |
| 199204 |
0.0446 |
| 199301 |
0.11 |
| 199302 |
0.0259 |
| 199303 |
0.0436 |
| 199304 |
0.001 |
| 199401 |
0.0015 |
| 199402 |
0.0014 |
| 199403 |
0.0021 |
| 199404 |
0.003 |
| 199501 |
0.0231 |
| 199502 |
0.0252 |
| 199503 |
0.0049 |
| 199504 |
0.0121 |
| 199601 |
0.0046 |
| 199602 |
0.0005 |
| 199603 |
0.0027 |
| 199604 |
0.0011 |
| 199701 |
0.002 |
| 199702 |
0.0016 |
| 199703 |
0.0003 |
| 199704 |
0.0012 |
| 199801 |
0.002 |
| 199802 |
0.0006 |
| 199803 |
0.0006 |
| 199804 |
0.0031 |
| 199901 |
0.0012 |
| 199902 |
0.0091 |
| 199903 |
0.005 |
| 199904 |
0.0002 |
| 200001 |
0.0004 |
| 200002 |
0.1255 |
| 200003 |
0.2455 |
| 200004 |
0.6406 |
| 200101 |
0.597 |
| 200102 |
0.9753 |
| 200103 |
0.9959 |
| 200104 |
0.976 |
| 200201 |
0.4256 |
| 200202 |
0.5058 |
| 200203 |
0.6456 |
| 200204 |
0.5088 |
| 200301 |
0.3606 |
| 200302 |
0.0587 |
| 200303 |
0.0193 |
| 200304 |
0.0045 |
| 200401 |
0.0061 |
| 200402 |
0.0037 |
| 200403 |
0.003 |
| 200404 |
0.0079 |
| 200501 |
0.004 |
| 200502 |
0.0086 |
| 200503 |
0.0082 |
| 200504 |
0.0021 |
| 200601 |
0.0055 |
| 200602 |
0.2546 |
| 200603 |
0.4023 |
| 200604 |
0.5823 |
| 200701 |
0.9861 |
| 200702 |
0.9935 |
| 200703 |
0.9974 |
| 200704 |
0.96 |
| 200801 |
0.9794 |
| 200802 |
0.9991 |
| 200803 |
0.9996 |
| 200804 |
1 |
| 200901 |
0.9999 |
| 200902 |
0.9902 |
| 200903 |
0.8268 |
| 200904 |
0.025 |
| 201001 |
0.0298 |
| 201002 |
0.1336 |
Figure 8: Three-State Markov Switching Model with Stall State, GDP and GDI
| Quarter |
Smoothed Probabilities of Stall State |
Smoothed Probabilities of Recession |
| 195904 |
0.0024 |
0 |
| 196001 |
0.024 |
0 |
| 196002 |
0.9154 |
0.0106 |
| 196003 |
0.56 |
0.4312 |
| 196004 |
0.07 |
0.9202 |
| 196101 |
0.0004 |
0.6336 |
| 196102 |
0.0001 |
0.0018 |
| 196103 |
0 |
0.0001 |
| 196104 |
0 |
0 |
| 196201 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| 196202 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| 196203 |
0.0005 |
0.0003 |
| 196204 |
0.0002 |
0.0005 |
| 196301 |
0 |
0.0002 |
| 196302 |
0 |
0 |
| 196303 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| 196304 |
0 |
0.0001 |
| 196401 |
0 |
0 |
| 196402 |
0 |
0 |
| 196403 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| 196404 |
0 |
0.0001 |
| 196501 |
0 |
0 |
| 196502 |
0 |
0 |
| 196503 |
0 |
0 |
| 196504 |
0 |
0 |
| 196601 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| 196602 |
0.0098 |
0.0001 |
| 196603 |
0.0155 |
0.0023 |
| 196604 |
0.0195 |
0.0032 |
| 196701 |
0.0184 |
0.0094 |
| 196702 |
0.0032 |
0.0195 |
| 196703 |
0.0011 |
0.0034 |
| 196704 |
0.0003 |
0.0012 |
| 196801 |
0.0005 |
0 |
| 196802 |
0.0024 |
0 |
| 196803 |
0.0206 |
0 |
| 196804 |
0.1212 |
0.0004 |
| 196901 |
0.2247 |
0.0007 |
| 196902 |
0.4489 |
0.0077 |
| 196903 |
0.6718 |
0.041 |
| 196904 |
0.7392 |
0.229 |
| 197001 |
0.5919 |
0.4067 |
| 197002 |
0.5113 |
0.4832 |
| 197003 |
0.4255 |
0.5567 |
| 197004 |
0.0009 |
0.9795 |
| 197101 |
0.0008 |
0.0006 |
| 197102 |
0.0009 |
0.0007 |
| 197103 |
0.0003 |
0.0009 |
| 197104 |
0 |
0.0003 |
| 197201 |
0 |
0 |
| 197202 |
0 |
0 |
| 197203 |
0 |
0 |
| 197204 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| 197301 |
0.0218 |
0 |
| 197302 |
0.438 |
0.0005 |
| 197303 |
0.6754 |
0.0442 |
| 197304 |
0.736 |
0.1031 |
| 197401 |
0.4015 |
0.5962 |
| 197402 |
0.2165 |
0.7833 |
| 197403 |
0.0615 |
0.9384 |
| 197404 |
0.0107 |
0.9893 |
| 197501 |
0.0001 |
0.9984 |
| 197502 |
0 |
0.0947 |
| 197503 |
0 |
0.0001 |
| 197504 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| 197601 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| 197602 |
0.0082 |
0.0001 |
| 197603 |
0.0103 |
0.0031 |
| 197604 |
0.0023 |
0.0104 |
| 197701 |
0 |
0.003 |
| 197702 |
0 |
0 |
| 197703 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| 197704 |
0.0037 |
0.0002 |
| 197801 |
0.0007 |
0.0035 |
| 197802 |
0.001 |
0 |
| 197803 |
0.1399 |
0 |
| 197804 |
0.2869 |
0.0011 |
| 197901 |
0.5121 |
0.0112 |
| 197902 |
0.9069 |
0.0647 |
| 197903 |
0.864 |
0.1254 |
| 197904 |
0.7452 |
0.2465 |
| 198001 |
0.433 |
0.5669 |
| 198002 |
0.0089 |
0.991 |
| 198003 |
0.0027 |
0.4018 |
| 198004 |
0.0037 |
0 |
| 198101 |
0.3145 |
0.0001 |
| 198102 |
0.6871 |
0.0372 |
| 198103 |
0.7337 |
0.0725 |
| 198104 |
0.3188 |
0.6803 |
| 198201 |
0.1313 |
0.8686 |
| 198202 |
0.1029 |
0.8906 |
| 198203 |
0.0376 |
0.9593 |
| 198204 |
0.0007 |
0.959 |
| 198301 |
0 |
0.0273 |
| 198302 |
0 |
0.0001 |
| 198303 |
0 |
0 |
| 198304 |
0 |
0 |
| 198401 |
0 |
0 |
| 198402 |
0 |
0 |
| 198403 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| 198404 |
0.0015 |
0.0001 |
| 198501 |
0.0046 |
0.0004 |
| 198502 |
0.0066 |
0.0017 |
| 198503 |
0.0094 |
0.0005 |
| 198504 |
0.017 |
0.002 |
| 198601 |
0.0233 |
0.0021 |
| 198602 |
0.025 |
0.0127 |
| 198603 |
0.0165 |
0.0148 |
| 198604 |
0.0055 |
0.015 |
| 198701 |
0.0002 |
0.0073 |
| 198702 |
0 |
0.0002 |
| 198703 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| 198704 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| 198801 |
0.0028 |
0 |
| 198802 |
0.0135 |
0.0001 |
| 198803 |
0.0517 |
0.0003 |
| 198804 |
0.1196 |
0.0001 |
| 198901 |
0.5674 |
0.0006 |
| 198902 |
0.9133 |
0.0089 |
| 198903 |
0.936 |
0.0165 |
| 198904 |
0.9314 |
0.0397 |
| 199001 |
0.9188 |
0.0411 |
| 199002 |
0.8394 |
0.1394 |
| 199003 |
0.5769 |
0.4211 |
| 199004 |
0.3122 |
0.6874 |
| 199101 |
0.2264 |
0.7634 |
| 199102 |
0.1859 |
0.6821 |
| 199103 |
0.1182 |
0.6062 |
| 199104 |
0.0536 |
0.3801 |
| 199201 |
0.054 |
0.0047 |
| 199202 |
0.0789 |
0.004 |
| 199203 |
0.1013 |
0.0138 |
| 199204 |
0.1016 |
0.0152 |
| 199301 |
0.0426 |
0.082 |
| 199302 |
0.0333 |
0.0192 |
| 199303 |
0.0007 |
0.0432 |
| 199304 |
0.0003 |
0.0006 |
| 199401 |
0.0002 |
0.0002 |
| 199402 |
0.0005 |
0.0001 |
| 199403 |
0.0013 |
0.0001 |
| 199404 |
0.0042 |
0.0002 |
| 199501 |
0.0093 |
0.0021 |
| 199502 |
0.0034 |
0.0081 |
| 199503 |
0.003 |
0.0015 |
| 199504 |
0.0014 |
0.0027 |
| 199601 |
0.0001 |
0.0015 |
| 199602 |
0.0001 |
0.0001 |
| 199603 |
0.0001 |
0.0001 |
| 199604 |
0.0001 |
0.0001 |
| 199701 |
0.0001 |
0.0001 |
| 199702 |
0 |
0.0001 |
| 199703 |
0 |
0 |
| 199704 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| 199801 |
0 |
0.0001 |
| 199802 |
0 |
0 |
| 199803 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| 199804 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| 199901 |
0.0005 |
0.0001 |
| 199902 |
0.0007 |
0.0004 |
| 199903 |
0.0004 |
0.0006 |
| 199904 |
0.0008 |
0 |
| 200001 |
0.0069 |
0 |
| 200002 |
0.3371 |
0 |
| 200003 |
0.5413 |
0.0094 |
| 200004 |
0.8183 |
0.0432 |
| 200101 |
0.7963 |
0.0898 |
| 200102 |
0.772 |
0.2207 |
| 200103 |
0.6021 |
0.3965 |
| 200104 |
0.5125 |
0.4703 |
| 200201 |
0.5033 |
0.0739 |
| 200202 |
0.5451 |
0.1249 |
| 200203 |
0.4189 |
0.3038 |
| 200204 |
0.225 |
0.4117 |
| 200301 |
0.0424 |
0.4214 |
| 200302 |
0.0188 |
0.0532 |
| 200303 |
0.0103 |
0.0129 |
| 200304 |
0.0064 |
0.005 |
| 200401 |
0.0031 |
0.0047 |
| 200402 |
0.002 |
0.002 |
| 200403 |
0.0023 |
0.0008 |
| 200404 |
0.0033 |
0.0011 |
| 200501 |
0.0048 |
0.0006 |
| 200502 |
0.0079 |
0.0015 |
| 200503 |
0.0116 |
0.0017 |
| 200504 |
0.0184 |
0.0005 |
| 200601 |
0.0531 |
0 |
| 200602 |
0.4702 |
0.0007 |
| 200603 |
0.6675 |
0.0077 |
| 200604 |
0.8103 |
0.0188 |
| 200701 |
0.9178 |
0.0738 |
| 200702 |
0.8815 |
0.1151 |
| 200703 |
0.8013 |
0.1978 |
| 200704 |
0.7261 |
0.2644 |
| 200801 |
0.4898 |
0.5082 |
| 200802 |
0.2165 |
0.7835 |
| 200803 |
0.046 |
0.954 |
| 200804 |
0.0028 |
0.9972 |
| 200901 |
0.0005 |
0.9995 |
| 200902 |
0.0002 |
0.9896 |
| 200903 |
0.0003 |
0.7768 |
| 200904 |
0.0012 |
0.0046 |
| 201001 |
0.0586 |
0.0011 |
| 201002 |
0.1893 |
0.0092 |
Figure 9A: Three-State Markov Switching Model with Stall State GDP only
| Quarter |
Smoothed Probabilities of Stall State |
Smoothed Probabilities of Recession |
| 195904 |
0.0255 |
0 |
| 196001 |
0.1392 |
0.0005 |
| 196002 |
0.7982 |
0.0688 |
| 196003 |
0.5194 |
0.4327 |
| 196004 |
0.028 |
0.9232 |
| 196101 |
0.0009 |
0.323 |
| 196102 |
0.0002 |
0.0041 |
| 196103 |
0.0001 |
0.0003 |
| 196104 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| 196201 |
0.001 |
0 |
| 196202 |
0.005 |
0.0002 |
| 196203 |
0.0097 |
0.0016 |
| 196204 |
0.002 |
0.0097 |
| 196301 |
0.0009 |
0.0019 |
| 196302 |
0.0003 |
0.0008 |
| 196303 |
0.0006 |
0.0001 |
| 196304 |
0.0002 |
0.0006 |
| 196401 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| 196402 |
0.0016 |
0.0001 |
| 196403 |
0.0038 |
0.0004 |
| 196404 |
0.0001 |
0.004 |
| 196501 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| 196502 |
0 |
0.0001 |
| 196503 |
0 |
0 |
| 196504 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| 196601 |
0.0026 |
0 |
| 196602 |
0.0341 |
0.0006 |
| 196603 |
0.047 |
0.0059 |
| 196604 |
0.058 |
0.0085 |
| 196701 |
0.065 |
0.0165 |
| 196702 |
0.0315 |
0.0562 |
| 196703 |
0.0188 |
0.0292 |
| 196704 |
0.0095 |
0.0172 |
| 196801 |
0.0111 |
0.0003 |
| 196802 |
0.0287 |
0.0001 |
| 196803 |
0.119 |
0.0011 |
| 196804 |
0.2161 |
0.0053 |
| 196901 |
0.2946 |
0.0031 |
| 196902 |
0.5992 |
0.0285 |
| 196903 |
0.713 |
0.1016 |
| 196904 |
0.6302 |
0.3241 |
| 197001 |
0.5213 |
0.4496 |
| 197002 |
0.435 |
0.515 |
| 197003 |
0.3407 |
0.5728 |
| 197004 |
0.0063 |
0.8967 |
| 197101 |
0.0062 |
0.0012 |
| 197102 |
0.0141 |
0.0027 |
| 197103 |
0.0146 |
0.0065 |
| 197104 |
0.0006 |
0.0178 |
| 197201 |
0.0002 |
0.0007 |
| 197202 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| 197203 |
0.0021 |
0.0001 |
| 197204 |
0.0051 |
0.0001 |
| 197301 |
0.0203 |
0 |
| 197302 |
0.3153 |
0.001 |
| 197303 |
0.76 |
0.0799 |
| 197304 |
0.7419 |
0.1837 |
| 197401 |
0.3865 |
0.6073 |
| 197402 |
0.2524 |
0.7454 |
| 197403 |
0.0689 |
0.9309 |
| 197404 |
0.0244 |
0.9743 |
| 197501 |
0.001 |
0.9882 |
| 197502 |
0.0001 |
0.2244 |
| 197503 |
0.0002 |
0.0044 |
| 197504 |
0.0004 |
0.0003 |
| 197601 |
0.0012 |
0 |
| 197602 |
0.0083 |
0.0004 |
| 197603 |
0.007 |
0.0053 |
| 197604 |
0.0028 |
0.0065 |
| 197701 |
0.0017 |
0.0021 |
| 197702 |
0.0028 |
0.0001 |
| 197703 |
0.0114 |
0.0002 |
| 197704 |
0.0211 |
0.0079 |
| 197801 |
0.0023 |
0.0233 |
| 197802 |
0.0027 |
0 |
| 197803 |
0.0798 |
0 |
| 197804 |
0.2163 |
0.001 |
| 197901 |
0.588 |
0.0163 |
| 197902 |
0.7332 |
0.0625 |
| 197903 |
0.7593 |
0.117 |
| 197904 |
0.6766 |
0.285 |
| 198001 |
0.4522 |
0.544 |
| 198002 |
0.0535 |
0.9455 |
| 198003 |
0.0339 |
0.7897 |
| 198004 |
0.0367 |
0.0106 |
| 198101 |
0.1457 |
0.0033 |
| 198102 |
0.8263 |
0.0495 |
| 198103 |
0.7963 |
0.1628 |
| 198104 |
0.1833 |
0.8159 |
| 198201 |
0.0458 |
0.9538 |
| 198202 |
0.0332 |
0.8991 |
| 198203 |
0.0137 |
0.8882 |
| 198204 |
0.001 |
0.6249 |
| 198301 |
0 |
0.0419 |
| 198302 |
0 |
0.0002 |
| 198303 |
0 |
0 |
| 198304 |
0 |
0 |
| 198401 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| 198402 |
0.0008 |
0 |
| 198403 |
0.0032 |
0.0003 |
| 198404 |
0.0044 |
0.0015 |
| 198501 |
0.0049 |
0.002 |
| 198502 |
0.0051 |
0.0024 |
| 198503 |
0.0078 |
0.0005 |
| 198504 |
0.017 |
0.0016 |
| 198601 |
0.0261 |
0.0031 |
| 198602 |
0.0306 |
0.0106 |
| 198603 |
0.0326 |
0.0089 |
| 198604 |
0.0252 |
0.0197 |
| 198701 |
0.0131 |
0.0223 |
| 198702 |
0.0101 |
0.0075 |
| 198703 |
0.0081 |
0.0055 |
| 198704 |
0.0107 |
0.0006 |
| 198801 |
0.0206 |
0.003 |
| 198802 |
0.0302 |
0.0014 |
| 198803 |
0.0533 |
0.0044 |
| 198804 |
0.0765 |
0.0011 |
| 198901 |
0.1486 |
0.0015 |
| 198902 |
0.2684 |
0.0031 |
| 198903 |
0.4157 |
0.0075 |
| 198904 |
0.5939 |
0.0273 |
| 199001 |
0.6747 |
0.0508 |
| 199002 |
0.7117 |
0.1919 |
| 199003 |
0.4907 |
0.4917 |
| 199004 |
0.178 |
0.8151 |
| 199101 |
0.089 |
0.8644 |
| 199102 |
0.0699 |
0.4327 |
| 199103 |
0.0485 |
0.288 |
| 199104 |
0.0249 |
0.1666 |
| 199201 |
0.0221 |
0.0234 |
| 199202 |
0.0244 |
0.0061 |
| 199203 |
0.032 |
0.0035 |
| 199204 |
0.0449 |
0.0055 |
| 199301 |
0.0424 |
0.025 |
| 199302 |
0.0309 |
0.0274 |
| 199303 |
0.0153 |
0.0287 |
| 199304 |
0.0148 |
0.0043 |
| 199401 |
0.0177 |
0.0031 |
| 199402 |
0.0261 |
0.0011 |
| 199403 |
0.0493 |
0.0037 |
| 199404 |
0.0702 |
0.0062 |
| 199501 |
0.0773 |
0.0325 |
| 199502 |
0.0451 |
0.0631 |
| 199503 |
0.0322 |
0.0324 |
| 199504 |
0.0169 |
0.0283 |
| 199601 |
0.0038 |
0.0213 |
| 199602 |
0.0035 |
0.0012 |
| 199603 |
0.0031 |
0.0021 |
| 199604 |
0.003 |
0.0016 |
| 199701 |
0.0013 |
0.0026 |
| 199702 |
0.0015 |
0.0005 |
| 199703 |
0.0026 |
0.0005 |
| 199704 |
0.0031 |
0.0016 |
| 199801 |
0.0025 |
0.002 |
| 199802 |
0.0011 |
0.0022 |
| 199803 |
0.0009 |
0.0007 |
| 199804 |
0.0018 |
0.0001 |
| 199901 |
0.0052 |
0.0006 |
| 199902 |
0.0078 |
0.0018 |
| 199903 |
0.0124 |
0.0007 |
| 199904 |
0.0268 |
0.0002 |
| 200001 |
0.108 |
0.0023 |
| 200002 |
0.1589 |
0.0007 |
| 200003 |
0.5245 |
0.013 |
| 200004 |
0.653 |
0.0504 |
| 200101 |
0.6902 |
0.1543 |
| 200102 |
0.6633 |
0.1851 |
| 200103 |
0.5637 |
0.3097 |
| 200104 |
0.5199 |
0.2394 |
| 200201 |
0.5016 |
0.1297 |
| 200202 |
0.459 |
0.1663 |
| 200203 |
0.3631 |
0.25 |
| 200204 |
0.1775 |
0.4043 |
| 200301 |
0.0807 |
0.3035 |
| 200302 |
0.0479 |
0.0978 |
| 200303 |
0.0484 |
0.0047 |
| 200304 |
0.0573 |
0.0065 |
| 200401 |
0.0695 |
0.0098 |
| 200402 |
0.0825 |
0.0112 |
| 200403 |
0.0985 |
0.0105 |
| 200404 |
0.1215 |
0.0072 |
| 200501 |
0.159 |
0.0058 |
| 200502 |
0.2209 |
0.0138 |
| 200503 |
0.2688 |
0.012 |
| 200504 |
0.3296 |
0.0146 |
| 200601 |
0.3908 |
0.005 |
| 200602 |
0.5623 |
0.0198 |
| 200603 |
0.6628 |
0.0435 |
| 200604 |
0.7053 |
0.0323 |
| 200701 |
0.7533 |
0.0491 |
| 200702 |
0.779 |
0.045 |
| 200703 |
0.7968 |
0.0876 |
| 200704 |
0.7534 |
0.1873 |
| 200801 |
0.5229 |
0.4663 |
| 200802 |
0.3151 |
0.6833 |
| 200803 |
0.0654 |
0.9346 |
| 200804 |
0.0074 |
0.9926 |
| 200901 |
0.0024 |
0.9961 |
| 200902 |
0.0018 |
0.8844 |
| 200903 |
0.0054 |
0.4196 |
| 200904 |
0.02 |
0.0431 |
| 201001 |
0.0797 |
0.0186 |
| 201002 |
0.1518 |
0.0278 |
Figure 9B: Three-State Markov Switching Model with Stall State GDI only
| Quarter |
Smoothed Probabilities of Stall State |
Smoothed Probabilities of Recession |
| 195904 |
0.0024 |
0 |
| 196001 |
0.0228 |
0 |
| 196002 |
0.9192 |
0.0091 |
| 196003 |
0.5441 |
0.4456 |
| 196004 |
0.1154 |
0.8733 |
| 196101 |
0.0006 |
0.6908 |
| 196102 |
0.0001 |
0.0024 |
| 196103 |
0 |
0.0001 |
| 196104 |
0 |
0 |
| 196201 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| 196202 |
0.0004 |
0.0001 |
| 196203 |
0.0005 |
0.0003 |
| 196204 |
0.0003 |
0.0004 |
| 196301 |
0 |
0.0003 |
| 196302 |
0 |
0 |
| 196303 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| 196304 |
0 |
0.0001 |
| 196401 |
0 |
0 |
| 196402 |
0 |
0 |
| 196403 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| 196404 |
0 |
0.0001 |
| 196501 |
0 |
0 |
| 196502 |
0 |
0 |
| 196503 |
0 |
0 |
| 196504 |
0 |
0 |
| 196601 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| 196602 |
0.011 |
0.0001 |
| 196603 |
0.0165 |
0.0028 |
| 196604 |
0.0199 |
0.004 |
| 196701 |
0.0152 |
0.0122 |
| 196702 |
0.0034 |
0.0164 |
| 196703 |
0.0013 |
0.0033 |
| 196704 |
0.0003 |
0.0013 |
| 196801 |
0.0005 |
0.0001 |
| 196802 |
0.0026 |
0 |
| 196803 |
0.0226 |
0 |
| 196804 |
0.1217 |
0.0005 |
| 196901 |
0.22 |
0.0009 |
| 196902 |
0.4636 |
0.0062 |
| 196903 |
0.687 |
0.0411 |
| 196904 |
0.7283 |
0.2462 |
| 197001 |
0.5038 |
0.4951 |
| 197002 |
0.4236 |
0.5698 |
| 197003 |
0.3505 |
0.6267 |
| 197004 |
0.0007 |
0.9741 |
| 197101 |
0.0007 |
0.0009 |
| 197102 |
0.0009 |
0.0006 |
| 197103 |
0.0002 |
0.0009 |
| 197104 |
0 |
0.0002 |
| 197201 |
0 |
0 |
| 197202 |
0 |
0 |
| 197203 |
0 |
0 |
| 197204 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| 197301 |
0.0181 |
0 |
| 197302 |
0.416 |
0.0004 |
| 197303 |
0.7113 |
0.0234 |
| 197304 |
0.771 |
0.0832 |
| 197401 |
0.3875 |
0.6107 |
| 197402 |
0.1784 |
0.8214 |
| 197403 |
0.0655 |
0.9345 |
| 197404 |
0.007 |
0.993 |
| 197501 |
0.0001 |
0.9983 |
| 197502 |
0 |
0.0907 |
| 197503 |
0 |
0.0001 |
| 197504 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| 197601 |
0.0005 |
0 |
| 197602 |
0.0105 |
0.0001 |
| 197603 |
0.0145 |
0.0034 |
| 197604 |
0.0028 |
0.0146 |
| 197701 |
0 |
0.0039 |
| 197702 |
0 |
0 |
| 197703 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| 197704 |
0.0043 |
0.0001 |
| 197801 |
0.0006 |
0.004 |
| 197802 |
0.0009 |
0 |
| 197803 |
0.1375 |
0 |
| 197804 |
0.2904 |
0.0016 |
| 197901 |
0.5481 |
0.0127 |
| 197902 |
0.8565 |
0.1138 |
| 197903 |
0.8014 |
0.1856 |
| 197904 |
0.7104 |
0.2783 |
| 198001 |
0.3796 |
0.6203 |
| 198002 |
0.0086 |
0.9913 |
| 198003 |
0.0032 |
0.3119 |
| 198004 |
0.0043 |
0 |
| 198101 |
0.2493 |
0.0001 |
| 198102 |
0.669 |
0.0158 |
| 198103 |
0.7215 |
0.0422 |
| 198104 |
0.4086 |
0.5899 |
| 198201 |
0.2355 |
0.7642 |
| 198202 |
0.1823 |
0.812 |
| 198203 |
0.0627 |
0.9351 |
| 198204 |
0.0009 |
0.9681 |
| 198301 |
0 |
0.0303 |
| 198302 |
0 |
0.0001 |
| 198303 |
0 |
0 |
| 198304 |
0 |
0 |
| 198401 |
0 |
0 |
| 198402 |
0 |
0 |
| 198403 |
0.0005 |
0 |
| 198404 |
0.0018 |
0.0001 |
| 198501 |
0.0052 |
0.0005 |
| 198502 |
0.007 |
0.0022 |
| 198503 |
0.0099 |
0.0007 |
| 198504 |
0.0188 |
0.0023 |
| 198601 |
0.0265 |
0.0023 |
| 198602 |
0.0267 |
0.0156 |
| 198603 |
0.0147 |
0.0194 |
| 198604 |
0.0051 |
0.0143 |
| 198701 |
0.0002 |
0.0066 |
| 198702 |
0 |
0.0002 |
| 198703 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| 198704 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| 198801 |
0.0032 |
0 |
| 198802 |
0.0138 |
0.0001 |
| 198803 |
0.0529 |
0.0003 |
| 198804 |
0.1186 |
0.0001 |
| 198901 |
0.5428 |
0.0019 |
| 198902 |
0.8756 |
0.0237 |
| 198903 |
0.901 |
0.0308 |
| 198904 |
0.9026 |
0.0526 |
| 199001 |
0.8951 |
0.0431 |
| 199002 |
0.8519 |
0.1153 |
| 199003 |
0.6207 |
0.3758 |
| 199004 |
0.3853 |
0.6141 |
| 199101 |
0.2795 |
0.7118 |
| 199102 |
0.2125 |
0.6911 |
| 199103 |
0.1266 |
0.6437 |
| 199104 |
0.0579 |
0.4072 |
| 199201 |
0.0585 |
0.0046 |
| 199202 |
0.083 |
0.0064 |
| 199203 |
0.0993 |
0.0225 |
| 199204 |
0.1015 |
0.0178 |
| 199301 |
0.046 |
0.0831 |
| 199302 |
0.0394 |
0.0163 |
| 199303 |
0.0007 |
0.0482 |
| 199304 |
0.0004 |
0.0006 |
| 199401 |
0.0003 |
0.0003 |
| 199402 |
0.0005 |
0.0001 |
| 199403 |
0.0015 |
0.0001 |
| 199404 |
0.0044 |
0.0002 |
| 199501 |
0.0101 |
0.002 |
| 199502 |
0.0042 |
0.0082 |
| 199503 |
0.0039 |
0.0015 |
| 199504 |
0.0015 |
0.0035 |
| 199601 |
0.0001 |
0.0016 |
| 199602 |
0.0001 |
0.0001 |
| 199603 |
0.0001 |
0.0001 |
| 199604 |
0.0001 |
0.0001 |
| 199701 |
0.0001 |
0.0001 |
| 199702 |
0 |
0.0001 |
| 199703 |
0 |
0 |
| 199704 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| 199801 |
0 |
0.0001 |
| 199802 |
0 |
0 |
| 199803 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| 199804 |
0.0003 |
0.0001 |
| 199901 |
0.0007 |
0.0001 |
| 199902 |
0.001 |
0.0005 |
| 199903 |
0.0005 |
0.0008 |
| 199904 |
0.0009 |
0 |
| 200001 |
0.0089 |
0 |
| 200002 |
0.3068 |
0.0001 |
| 200003 |
0.5544 |
0.0073 |
| 200004 |
0.8271 |
0.055 |
| 200101 |
0.8203 |
0.0931 |
| 200102 |
0.6082 |
0.3859 |
| 200103 |
0.4174 |
0.5813 |
| 200104 |
0.3242 |
0.6582 |
| 200201 |
0.3195 |
0.0915 |
| 200202 |
0.4283 |
0.1261 |
| 200203 |
0.3305 |
0.2971 |
| 200204 |
0.2067 |
0.3282 |
| 200301 |
0.0398 |
0.362 |
| 200302 |
0.0204 |
0.0442 |
| 200303 |
0.0078 |
0.0182 |
| 200304 |
0.0052 |
0.004 |
| 200401 |
0.0028 |
0.0037 |
| 200402 |
0.0022 |
0.0015 |
| 200403 |
0.0028 |
0.0007 |
| 200404 |
0.0039 |
0.0013 |
| 200501 |
0.0058 |
0.0007 |
| 200502 |
0.0104 |
0.0015 |
| 200503 |
0.0153 |
0.002 |
| 200504 |
0.0243 |
0.0004 |
| 200601 |
0.0641 |
0.0001 |
| 200602 |
0.5105 |
0.0015 |
| 200603 |
0.7107 |
0.0184 |
| 200604 |
0.8011 |
0.0709 |
| 200701 |
0.7135 |
0.2797 |
| 200702 |
0.6215 |
0.3744 |
| 200703 |
0.5154 |
0.4828 |
| 200704 |
0.4679 |
0.5056 |
| 200801 |
0.3481 |
0.6478 |
| 200802 |
0.1222 |
0.8777 |
| 200803 |
0.0332 |
0.9668 |
| 200804 |
0.0022 |
0.9978 |
| 200901 |
0.0004 |
0.9996 |
| 200902 |
0.0002 |
0.9915 |
| 200903 |
0.0002 |
0.8076 |
| 200904 |
0.0011 |
0.0041 |
| 201001 |
0.0616 |
0.001 |
| 201002 |
0.1922 |
0.0108 |
Figure 10: Three-State Markov Switching Model with Stall State, Industrial Production
| Quarter |
Smoothed Probabilities of Recession |
Smoothed Probabilities of Rapid Recovery State |
Industrial Production, Annualized Percent Change |
| 195904 |
0 |
0.9881 |
1.93 |
| 196001 |
0 |
0.9415 |
26.39 |
| 196002 |
0.0565 |
0.0009 |
-8.4 |
| 196003 |
0.9158 |
0 |
-6.42 |
| 196004 |
0.9983 |
0 |
-9.3 |
| 196101 |
0.9972 |
0.0028 |
-5.92 |
| 196102 |
0 |
1 |
16.83 |
| 196103 |
0 |
1 |
13.39 |
| 196104 |
0 |
0.9998 |
14.78 |
| 196201 |
0 |
0.9968 |
6.11 |
| 196202 |
0.0003 |
0.9941 |
3.93 |
| 196203 |
0.0007 |
0.9932 |
4.33 |
| 196204 |
0.0032 |
0.9935 |
3.42 |
| 196301 |
0.0002 |
0.9966 |
7.6 |
| 196302 |
0 |
0.9967 |
10.97 |
| 196303 |
0.0023 |
0.9964 |
2.7 |
| 196304 |
0.0002 |
0.9986 |
6.94 |
| 196401 |
0.0006 |
0.9988 |
5.59 |
| 196402 |
0 |
0.9994 |
9.72 |
| 196403 |
0.0001 |
0.9993 |
6.56 |
| 196404 |
0.0002 |
0.9993 |
6.2 |
| 196501 |
0 |
0.9994 |
15.99 |
| 196502 |
0 |
0.9977 |
9.6 |
| 196503 |
0 |
0.9926 |
8.64 |
| 196504 |
0 |
0.9812 |
8.34 |
| 196601 |
0 |
0.9586 |
11.96 |
| 196602 |
0 |
0.817 |
8.62 |
| 196603 |
0 |
0.5074 |
6.33 |
| 196604 |
0.0006 |
0.1779 |
3.88 |
| 196701 |
0.0219 |
0.0194 |
-2.19 |
| 196702 |
0.0373 |
0.0097 |
-1.62 |
| 196703 |
0.01 |
0.0361 |
2.78 |
| 196704 |
0 |
0.0438 |
11.14 |
| 196801 |
0.0001 |
0.0328 |
5.83 |
| 196802 |
0.0001 |
0.0228 |
5.5 |
| 196803 |
0.0008 |
0.0146 |
3.14 |
| 196804 |
0.0001 |
0.0119 |
6.21 |
| 196901 |
0 |
0.0085 |
8.01 |
| 196902 |
0.0022 |
0.0021 |
1.76 |
| 196903 |
0.0152 |
0.0006 |
4.89 |
| 196904 |
0.5529 |
0 |
-2.48 |
| 197001 |
0.9731 |
0 |
-9.34 |
| 197002 |
0.9758 |
0.0003 |
-2.18 |
| 197003 |
0.9822 |
0.0001 |
-1.42 |
| 197004 |
0.9988 |
0.0004 |
-8.37 |
| 197101 |
0.0033 |
0.993 |
7.94 |
| 197102 |
0.0008 |
0.9907 |
3.67 |
| 197103 |
0.0081 |
0.991 |
1.24 |
| 197104 |
0 |
0.9992 |
9.6 |
| 197201 |
0 |
0.9991 |
18.08 |
| 197202 |
0 |
0.9946 |
7.87 |
| 197203 |
0.0001 |
0.9869 |
5.14 |
| 197204 |
0 |
0.9813 |
14.78 |
| 197301 |
0 |
0.896 |
11.87 |
| 197302 |
0 |
0.3787 |
3.25 |
| 197303 |
0.0002 |
0.1691 |
3.53 |
| 197304 |
0.0023 |
0.0767 |
6.13 |
| 197401 |
0.1943 |
0.0034 |
-3.54 |
| 197402 |
0.2819 |
0.0006 |
0.33 |
| 197403 |
0.6045 |
0 |
-1.65 |
| 197404 |
0.9996 |
0 |
-14.78 |
| 197501 |
1 |
0 |
-23.88 |
| 197502 |
0.9949 |
0.0051 |
-5.22 |
| 197503 |
0.0003 |
0.9994 |
10.45 |
| 197504 |
0 |
0.9987 |
8.92 |
| 197601 |
0 |
0.9962 |
12.77 |
| 197602 |
0 |
0.9763 |
5.24 |
| 197603 |
0.0001 |
0.9614 |
5.22 |
| 197604 |
0 |
0.9502 |
7.52 |
| 197701 |
0 |
0.9329 |
8.32 |
| 197702 |
0 |
0.8982 |
12.9 |
| 197703 |
0.0001 |
0.6079 |
4.67 |
| 197704 |
0.0037 |
0.426 |
2.8 |
| 197801 |
0.0636 |
0.3692 |
-1.28 |
| 197802 |
0 |
0.4264 |
16.63 |
| 197803 |
0.0002 |
0.2489 |
3.71 |
| 197804 |
0 |
0.166 |
7.54 |
| 197901 |
0.0013 |
0.0366 |
1.75 |
| 197902 |
0.0093 |
0.0042 |
-0.69 |
| 197903 |
0.0225 |
0.0006 |
-1.3 |
| 197904 |
0.0383 |
0.0006 |
1.46 |
| 198001 |
0.1567 |
0 |
1.64 |
| 198002 |
0.9988 |
0 |
-15.77 |
| 198003 |
0.9941 |
0.0021 |
-6.24 |
| 198004 |
0 |
0.9666 |
16.35 |
| 198101 |
0.0001 |
0.1822 |
0.87 |
| 198102 |
0.0057 |
0.0327 |
1.37 |
| 198103 |
0.0442 |
0.0005 |
3.85 |
| 198104 |
0.9697 |
0 |
-8.54 |
| 198201 |
0.9983 |
0 |
-7.84 |
| 198202 |
0.9991 |
0 |
-5 |
| 198203 |
0.9995 |
0 |
-5.7 |
| 198204 |
0.999 |
0.0009 |
-7.17 |
| 198301 |
0.0424 |
0.9571 |
4.67 |
| 198302 |
0 |
0.9991 |
9.3 |
| 198303 |
0 |
0.9983 |
14.49 |
| 198304 |
0 |
0.9861 |
10.78 |
| 198401 |
0 |
0.9337 |
12.41 |
| 198402 |
0 |
0.5567 |
6.26 |
| 198403 |
0.0001 |
0.1638 |
2.77 |
| 198404 |
0.001 |
0.027 |
0.26 |
| 198501 |
0.001 |
0.0055 |
1.12 |
| 198502 |
0.0016 |
0.001 |
0.43 |
| 198503 |
0.0026 |
0.0003 |
-0.66 |
| 198504 |
0.0008 |
0.0008 |
2.49 |
| 198601 |
0.0021 |
0.0004 |
2.24 |
| 198602 |
0.0165 |
0.0001 |
-2.3 |
| 198603 |
0.009 |
0.0083 |
1.59 |
| 198604 |
0.0015 |
0.0153 |
4.62 |
| 198701 |
0.0009 |
0.0156 |
5.33 |
| 198702 |
0.0002 |
0.0156 |
7.36 |
| 198703 |
0.0001 |
0.0144 |
7.28 |
| 198704 |
0 |
0.0125 |
10.13 |
| 198801 |
0.0002 |
0.0052 |
3.52 |
| 198802 |
0.0002 |
0.0021 |
3.54 |
| 198803 |
0.0005 |
0.0006 |
1.91 |
| 198804 |
0.0004 |
0.0004 |
2.89 |
| 198901 |
0.0014 |
0.0001 |
1.64 |
| 198902 |
0.0071 |
0.0001 |
-1.58 |
| 198903 |
0.0098 |
0.0002 |
-2.45 |
| 198904 |
0.0019 |
0.0025 |
1.82 |
| 199001 |
0.0008 |
0.0015 |
3 |
| 199002 |
0.0054 |
0.0005 |
2.74 |
| 199003 |
0.0654 |
0.0001 |
1.5 |
| 199004 |
0.4588 |
0 |
-6.13 |
| 199101 |
0.4878 |
0.0003 |
-7.41 |
| 199102 |
0.0505 |
0.182 |
2.49 |
| 199103 |
0.0008 |
0.1213 |
5.6 |
| 199104 |
0.0016 |
0.0265 |
0.94 |
| 199201 |
0.0043 |
0.0081 |
-0.42 |
| 199202 |
0.0001 |
0.0087 |
7.11 |
| 199203 |
0.0004 |
0.0035 |
2.85 |
| 199204 |
0.0002 |
0.0019 |
4.03 |
| 199301 |
0.0004 |
0.0009 |
3.5 |
| 199302 |
0.0023 |
0.0005 |
1.12 |
| 199303 |
0.0032 |
0.0016 |
2.04 |
| 199304 |
0.0003 |
0.0042 |
6.15 |
| 199401 |
0.0006 |
0.0039 |
5.03 |
| 199402 |
0.0001 |
0.004 |
7.44 |
| 199403 |
0.0004 |
0.0034 |
5.15 |
| 199404 |
0 |
0.0031 |
8.17 |
| 199501 |
0.0002 |
0.002 |
5.23 |
| 199502 |
0.0038 |
0.0012 |
1 |
| 199503 |
0.002 |
0.004 |
3.7 |
| 199504 |
0.0052 |
0.0052 |
3.23 |
| 199601 |
0.0117 |
0.0094 |
3.14 |
| 199602 |
0.0005 |
0.0209 |
8.08 |
| 199603 |
0.0021 |
0.0208 |
5.43 |
| 199604 |
0.0023 |
0.0224 |
5.58 |
| 199701 |
0.0004 |
0.0243 |
7.79 |
| 199702 |
0.0007 |
0.0239 |
6.44 |
| 199703 |
0 |
0.0236 |
9.56 |
| 199704 |
0 |
0.0208 |
10.13 |
| 199801 |
0.0001 |
0.0108 |
4.53 |
| 199802 |
0.0004 |
0.0048 |
3.03 |
| 199803 |
0.0005 |
0.0027 |
3.04 |
| 199804 |
0.0001 |
0.0021 |
5.35 |
| 199901 |
0.0003 |
0.0013 |
4.1 |
| 199902 |
0.0004 |
0.0009 |
3.91 |
| 199903 |
0.0005 |
0.0009 |
3.89 |
| 199904 |
0 |
0.001 |
7.45 |
| 200001 |
0.0002 |
0.0005 |
4.74 |
| 200002 |
0.0036 |
0.0002 |
4.67 |
| 200003 |
0.1263 |
0 |
-0.5 |
| 200004 |
0.4004 |
0 |
-1.13 |
| 200101 |
0.8418 |
0 |
-5.61 |
| 200102 |
0.9033 |
0.0001 |
-5.03 |
| 200103 |
0.9019 |
0.0004 |
-5.58 |
| 200104 |
0.803 |
0.0067 |
-4.58 |
| 200201 |
0.0745 |
0.3599 |
2.82 |
| 200202 |
0.0005 |
0.2636 |
6.5 |
| 200203 |
0.0004 |
0.0701 |
2.35 |
| 200204 |
0.0017 |
0.011 |
-0.28 |
| 200301 |
0.001 |
0.0035 |
2.87 |
| 200302 |
0.0078 |
0.0003 |
-2.99 |
| 200303 |
0.0013 |
0.0025 |
2.2 |
| 200304 |
0.0003 |
0.0015 |
3.6 |
| 200401 |
0.0004 |
0.0006 |
2.59 |
| 200402 |
0.0008 |
0.0003 |
1.84 |
| 200403 |
0.0011 |
0.0004 |
1.81 |
| 200404 |
0.0001 |
0.001 |
5.59 |
| 200501 |
0.0001 |
0.0006 |
5.94 |
| 200502 |
0.0007 |
0.0002 |
1.99 |
| 200503 |
0.0037 |
0.0001 |
-1.51 |
| 200504 |
0.0007 |
0.0013 |
2.74 |
| 200601 |
0.0002 |
0.0008 |
3.66 |
| 200602 |
0.0004 |
0.0003 |
2.61 |
| 200603 |
0.0004 |
0.0002 |
2.74 |
| 200604 |
0.0012 |
0.0001 |
0.88 |
| 200701 |
0.0002 |
0.0007 |
4.33 |
| 200702 |
0.0011 |
0.0004 |
4.54 |
| 200703 |
0.0332 |
0.0001 |
1.03 |
| 200704 |
0.1946 |
0 |
-0.66 |
| 200801 |
0.5272 |
0 |
-1.59 |
| 200802 |
0.9463 |
0 |
-5.9 |
| 200803 |
0.9991 |
0 |
-9.66 |
| 200804 |
1 |
0 |
-13.03 |
| 200901 |
1 |
0 |
-17.56 |
| 200902 |
0.9997 |
0.0001 |
-10.26 |
| 200903 |
0.0021 |
0.9766 |
8.26 |
| 200904 |
0 |
0.9344 |
6.99 |
| 201001 |
0 |
0.8765 |
7.1 |
| 201002 |
0.0001 |
0.798 |
7.19 |
Figure 11: Three-State Markov Switching Model with Stall State, Unemployment Rate
| Quarter |
Smoothed Probabilities of Stall State |
Smoothed Probabilities of Recession |
Change in Unemployment Rate |
| 195904 |
0.0168 |
0 |
-0.2 |
| 196001 |
0.3356 |
0.0001 |
0.1 |
| 196002 |
0.6314 |
0.0031 |
0 |
| 196003 |
0.9102 |
0.0892 |
0.1 |
| 196004 |
0.0014 |
0.9984 |
1.1 |
| 196101 |
0.0001 |
0.675 |
0.3 |
| 196102 |
0 |
0.0314 |
0 |
| 196103 |
0 |
0.0001 |
-0.2 |
| 196104 |
0 |
0 |
-0.7 |
| 196201 |
0.0004 |
0 |
-0.4 |
| 196202 |
0.0027 |
0 |
-0.1 |
| 196203 |
0.0051 |
0.0009 |
0.1 |
| 196204 |
0.0077 |
0.0004 |
-0.1 |
| 196301 |
0.0012 |
0.0072 |
0.2 |
| 196302 |
0.0009 |
0.0006 |
-0.1 |
| 196303 |
0.0009 |
0.0003 |
-0.1 |
| 196304 |
0.0003 |
0.0007 |
0 |
| 196401 |
0.0001 |
0.0003 |
-0.1 |
| 196402 |
0.0002 |
0.0001 |
-0.2 |
| 196403 |
0.0001 |
0.0001 |
-0.1 |
| 196404 |
0 |
0.0001 |
-0.1 |
| 196501 |
0.0001 |
0 |
-0.3 |
| 196502 |
0 |
0.0001 |
-0.1 |
| 196503 |
0.0001 |
0 |
-0.3 |
| 196504 |
0.0003 |
0 |
-0.3 |
| 196601 |
0.0011 |
0 |
-0.2 |
| 196602 |
0.0031 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| 196603 |
0.0058 |
0.0002 |
-0.1 |
| 196604 |
0.0087 |
0.0016 |
0.1 |
| 196701 |
0.0113 |
0.0012 |
0 |
| 196702 |
0.0114 |
0.0037 |
0.1 |
| 196703 |
0.0142 |
0.0005 |
-0.1 |
| 196704 |
0.0197 |
0.001 |
0 |
| 196801 |
0.0284 |
0.0003 |
-0.1 |
| 196802 |
0.0464 |
0.0007 |
0 |
| 196803 |
0.0726 |
0 |
-0.3 |
| 196804 |
0.1963 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| 196901 |
0.3709 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| 196902 |
0.6171 |
0.0007 |
0.1 |
| 196903 |
0.8466 |
0.0032 |
0.2 |
| 196904 |
0.9814 |
0.0138 |
-0.2 |
| 197001 |
0.0146 |
0.9853 |
0.9 |
| 197002 |
0.0032 |
0.9967 |
0.5 |
| 197003 |
0.0007 |
0.9992 |
0.5 |
| 197004 |
0 |
0.9963 |
0.7 |
| 197101 |
0 |
0.0141 |
-0.1 |
| 197102 |
0.0012 |
0.0002 |
-0.1 |
| 197103 |
0.0011 |
0.0008 |
0.1 |
| 197104 |
0.0006 |
0.0008 |
0 |
| 197201 |
0.0008 |
0.0001 |
-0.2 |
| 197202 |
0.0015 |
0.0001 |
-0.1 |
| 197203 |
0.003 |
0 |
-0.2 |
| 197204 |
0.008 |
0 |
-0.3 |
| 197301 |
0.0316 |
0 |
-0.3 |
| 197302 |
0.1426 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| 197303 |
0.2994 |
0.0001 |
-0.1 |
| 197304 |
0.6179 |
0.0062 |
0.1 |
| 197401 |
0.8058 |
0.0857 |
0.2 |
| 197402 |
0.5792 |
0.4128 |
0.3 |
| 197403 |
0.1144 |
0.8856 |
0.5 |
| 197404 |
0 |
1 |
1.3 |
| 197501 |
0 |
1 |
1.4 |
| 197502 |
0 |
0.3651 |
0.2 |
| 197503 |
0 |
0.0001 |
-0.4 |
| 197504 |
0.0001 |
0 |
-0.2 |
| 197601 |
0.0003 |
0 |
-0.6 |
| 197602 |
0.0036 |
0 |
0 |
| 197603 |
0.007 |
0.0006 |
0 |
| 197604 |
0 |
0.0072 |
0.2 |
| 197701 |
0 |
0 |
-0.4 |
| 197702 |
0 |
0 |
-0.2 |
| 197703 |
0.0001 |
0 |
-0.4 |
| 197704 |
0.0005 |
0 |
-0.4 |
| 197801 |
0.0034 |
0 |
-0.1 |
| 197802 |
0.0096 |
0 |
-0.4 |
| 197803 |
0.051 |
0.0003 |
0.1 |
| 197804 |
0.0896 |
0.0005 |
0 |
| 197901 |
0.1449 |
0 |
-0.2 |
| 197902 |
0.3192 |
0.0001 |
-0.1 |
| 197903 |
0.6704 |
0.0082 |
0.2 |
| 197904 |
0.8375 |
0.0527 |
0.1 |
| 198001 |
0.5657 |
0.4342 |
0.3 |
| 198002 |
0.0008 |
0.9992 |
1.3 |
| 198003 |
0.0008 |
0.0127 |
-0.1 |
| 198004 |
0.0909 |
0 |
-0.3 |
| 198101 |
0.5166 |
0.001 |
0.2 |
| 198102 |
0.7701 |
0.0115 |
0.1 |
| 198103 |
0.8823 |
0.1156 |
0.1 |
| 198104 |
0.0108 |
0.9892 |
0.9 |
| 198201 |
0.0022 |
0.9978 |
0.5 |
| 198202 |
0.0003 |
0.9997 |
0.6 |
| 198203 |
0.0001 |
0.9998 |
0.5 |
| 198204 |
0 |
0.9963 |
0.7 |
| 198301 |
0 |
0.0001 |
-0.5 |
| 198302 |
0 |
0 |
-0.2 |
| 198303 |
0 |
0 |
-0.9 |
| 198304 |
0 |
0 |
-0.9 |
| 198401 |
0 |
0 |
-0.5 |
| 198402 |
0.0003 |
0 |
-0.6 |
| 198403 |
0.0033 |
0.0001 |
0.1 |
| 198404 |
0.0051 |
0.0005 |
0 |
| 198501 |
0.008 |
0.0003 |
-0.1 |
| 198502 |
0.0025 |
0.0067 |
0.2 |
| 198503 |
0.0032 |
0 |
-0.3 |
| 198504 |
0.0061 |
0.0002 |
-0.1 |
| 198601 |
0.0016 |
0.0055 |
0.2 |
| 198602 |
0.0002 |
0.0017 |
0 |
| 198603 |
0.0001 |
0.0001 |
-0.2 |
| 198604 |
0.0002 |
0 |
-0.4 |
| 198701 |
0 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| 198702 |
0.0001 |
0 |
-0.4 |
| 198703 |
0.0003 |
0 |
-0.3 |
| 198704 |
0.0011 |
0 |
-0.2 |
| 198801 |
0.0033 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| 198802 |
0.0066 |
0 |
-0.3 |
| 198803 |
0.0216 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| 198804 |
0.0427 |
0.0001 |
-0.1 |
| 198901 |
0.0877 |
0 |
-0.3 |
| 198902 |
0.2821 |
0.0053 |
0.3 |
| 198903 |
0.3655 |
0.0011 |
0 |
| 198904 |
0.4828 |
0.0022 |
0.1 |
| 199001 |
0.5955 |
0.0004 |
-0.2 |
| 199002 |
0.9002 |
0.0341 |
0 |
| 199003 |
0.1739 |
0.8207 |
0.7 |
| 199004 |
0.127 |
0.862 |
0.4 |
| 199101 |
0.1064 |
0.853 |
0.5 |
| 199102 |
0.1123 |
0.1528 |
0.1 |
| 199103 |
0.2484 |
0.0598 |
0 |
| 199104 |
0.3131 |
0.141 |
0.4 |
| 199201 |
0.3015 |
0.1278 |
0.1 |
| 199202 |
0.0011 |
0.412 |
0.4 |
| 199203 |
0.0004 |
0.0024 |
-0.2 |
| 199204 |
0.0002 |
0.0002 |
-0.2 |
| 199301 |
0.0002 |
0 |
-0.4 |
| 199302 |
0.0001 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| 199303 |
0.0001 |
0 |
-0.3 |
| 199304 |
0.0002 |
0 |
-0.2 |
| 199401 |
0 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| 199402 |
0.0001 |
0 |
-0.4 |
| 199403 |
0.0002 |
0 |
-0.2 |
| 199404 |
0.0008 |
0 |
-0.4 |
| 199501 |
0.0044 |
0 |
-0.1 |
| 199502 |
0.0028 |
0.0034 |
0.2 |
| 199503 |
0.0022 |
0.0014 |
0 |
| 199504 |
0.0015 |
0.0012 |
0 |
| 199601 |
0.0016 |
0.0004 |
-0.1 |
| 199602 |
0.0024 |
0.0001 |
-0.2 |
| 199603 |
0.005 |
0.0002 |
-0.1 |
| 199604 |
0.0003 |
0.0049 |
0.2 |
| 199701 |
0.0002 |
0.0001 |
-0.2 |
| 199702 |
0.0002 |
0.0001 |
-0.2 |
| 199703 |
0.0003 |
0.0001 |
-0.1 |
| 199704 |
0.0007 |
0 |
-0.2 |
| 199801 |
0.0011 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| 199802 |
0.002 |
0.0001 |
-0.2 |
| 199803 |
0.0024 |
0.0011 |
0.1 |
| 199804 |
0.0036 |
0.0001 |
-0.2 |
| 199901 |
0.0077 |
0 |
-0.2 |
| 199902 |
0.018 |
0.001 |
0.1 |
| 199903 |
0.0283 |
0.0002 |
-0.1 |
| 199904 |
0.0505 |
0 |
-0.2 |
| 200001 |
0.1202 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| 200002 |
0.2183 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| 200003 |
0.3573 |
0.0002 |
-0.1 |
| 200004 |
0.6381 |
0.0075 |
0 |
| 200101 |
0.7279 |
0.2012 |
0.4 |
| 200102 |
0.6264 |
0.3641 |
0.2 |
| 200103 |
0.1352 |
0.864 |
0.5 |
| 200104 |
0.0155 |
0.9809 |
0.7 |
| 200201 |
0.0154 |
0.0507 |
0 |
| 200202 |
0.0537 |
0.0078 |
0.1 |
| 200203 |
0.0913 |
0.0008 |
-0.1 |
| 200204 |
0.1353 |
0.0203 |
0.3 |
| 200301 |
0.1569 |
0.0065 |
-0.1 |
| 200302 |
0.0014 |
0.1615 |
0.4 |
| 200303 |
0.001 |
0.0011 |
-0.2 |
| 200304 |
0.0012 |
0 |
-0.4 |
| 200401 |
0.0002 |
0.0011 |
0.1 |
| 200402 |
0.0002 |
0.0001 |
-0.2 |
| 200403 |
0.0004 |
0 |
-0.2 |
| 200404 |
0.0004 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| 200501 |
0.0006 |
0 |
-0.2 |
| 200502 |
0.0014 |
0 |
-0.2 |
| 200503 |
0.0035 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| 200504 |
0.0064 |
0.0002 |
-0.1 |
| 200601 |
0.0127 |
0 |
-0.2 |
| 200602 |
0.0327 |
0.0001 |
-0.1 |
| 200603 |
0.075 |
0.0001 |
-0.1 |
| 200604 |
0.1642 |
0.0001 |
-0.1 |
| 200701 |
0.3524 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| 200702 |
0.6132 |
0.0033 |
0.2 |
| 200703 |
0.7706 |
0.0092 |
0.1 |
| 200704 |
0.8588 |
0.066 |
0.3 |
| 200801 |
0.8352 |
0.1438 |
0.1 |
| 200802 |
0.3137 |
0.6861 |
0.4 |
| 200803 |
0.013 |
0.987 |
0.7 |
| 200804 |
0 |
1 |
1.2 |
| 200901 |
0 |
1 |
1.2 |
| 200902 |
0 |
0.9999 |
0.9 |
| 200903 |
0 |
0.755 |
0.3 |
| 200904 |
0.0022 |
0.2748 |
0.2 |
| 201001 |
0.0064 |
0.0003 |
-0.3 |
| 201002 |
0.0335 |
0 |
-0.2 |
Figure 12: Three-State Markov Switching Model with Stall State, GDP and GDI
| Quarter |
Real Time Probabilities of Recession plus Stall State |
Mean GDI Growth in Expansion State |
Mean GDI Growth in Stall State |
Mean GDI Growth in Recessions |
| 197801 |
0.424 |
5.2414 |
0.7344 |
-2.0399 |
| 197802 |
0.0057 |
5.1973 |
0.6771 |
-2.0231 |
| 197803 |
0.0703 |
5.1515 |
0.6895 |
-2.0231 |
| 197804 |
0.0076 |
5.168 |
0.6683 |
-2.0231 |
| 197901 |
0.1701 |
5.1081 |
0.6843 |
-2.0231 |
| 197902 |
0.9236 |
5.2086 |
0.7034 |
-2.0231 |
| 197903 |
0.8942 |
5.2046 |
0.705 |
-2.0231 |
| 197904 |
0.7451 |
5.2028 |
0.8296 |
-2.0231 |
| 198001 |
0.9545 |
5.2243 |
0.7343 |
-2.0231 |
| 198002 |
1 |
5.2074 |
0.6531 |
-2.0231 |
| 198003 |
0.8822 |
5.2362 |
1.2511 |
-1.648 |
| 198004 |
0.0491 |
5.2227 |
1.2981 |
-1.648 |
| 198101 |
0.0112 |
5.2576 |
1.3435 |
-1.648 |
| 198102 |
0.3589 |
5.1901 |
1.271 |
-1.648 |
| 198103 |
0.8156 |
5.2104 |
1.1807 |
-1.648 |
| 198104 |
0.9987 |
5.234 |
1.0946 |
-1.648 |
| 198201 |
0.9985 |
5.2349 |
1.119 |
-1.648 |
| 198202 |
0.9557 |
5.2437 |
0.8824 |
-1.648 |
| 198203 |
0.9407 |
5.2409 |
0.8741 |
-1.648 |
| 198204 |
0.9907 |
5.2479 |
0.8809 |
-1.648 |
| 198301 |
0.1762 |
5.2206 |
0.8706 |
-1.648 |
| 198302 |
0.0049 |
5.3251 |
1.9344 |
-1.6434 |
| 198303 |
0.0146 |
5.3554 |
1.9535 |
-1.6434 |
| 198304 |
0.0399 |
5.3727 |
1.9713 |
-1.6434 |
| 198401 |
0.0058 |
5.4471 |
1.9505 |
-1.6434 |
| 198402 |
0.0034 |
5.5217 |
1.2702 |
-1.6396 |
| 198403 |
0.1673 |
5.4709 |
1.2754 |
-1.6396 |
| 198404 |
0.126 |
5.4468 |
1.3027 |
-1.6396 |
| 198501 |
0.7014 |
5.4468 |
1.3673 |
-1.6396 |
| 198502 |
0.6644 |
5.4317 |
1.4016 |
-1.6396 |
| 198503 |
0.6823 |
5.0868 |
1.4902 |
-1.5615 |
| 198504 |
0.8354 |
5.126 |
1.5473 |
-1.5615 |
| 198601 |
0.7571 |
5.1336 |
1.6376 |
-1.5615 |
| 198602 |
0.8275 |
5.0326 |
1.6895 |
-1.5615 |
| 198603 |
0.8341 |
5.0506 |
1.7127 |
-1.5615 |
| 198604 |
0.8567 |
5.0837 |
1.7811 |
-1.5615 |
| 198701 |
0.8214 |
5.1058 |
1.932 |
-1.5615 |
| 198702 |
0.3841 |
4.845 |
1.4935 |
-1.5615 |
| 198703 |
0.0769 |
4.7799 |
1.3452 |
-1.5615 |
| 198704 |
0.0776 |
4.7597 |
1.3133 |
-1.5615 |
| 198801 |
0.0497 |
4.7591 |
1.3031 |
-1.5615 |
| 198802 |
0.1499 |
4.8068 |
1.2942 |
-1.5615 |
| 198803 |
0.1335 |
4.7848 |
1.3154 |
-1.5615 |
| 198804 |
0.1348 |
4.762 |
1.3296 |
-1.5615 |
| 198901 |
0.0486 |
4.761 |
1.2901 |
-1.5615 |
| 198902 |
0.1711 |
4.7815 |
1.4033 |
-1.5615 |
| 198903 |
0.1207 |
4.7613 |
1.3993 |
-1.5615 |
| 198904 |
0.2807 |
4.7339 |
1.4287 |
-1.5615 |
| 199001 |
0.4522 |
4.725 |
1.4583 |
-1.5615 |
| 199002 |
0.9017 |
4.8491 |
1.3224 |
-1.5615 |
| 199003 |
0.8714 |
4.8504 |
1.294 |
-1.5615 |
| 199004 |
0.9864 |
4.8537 |
1.1761 |
-1.5615 |
| 199101 |
0.9986 |
4.8535 |
1.194 |
-1.5615 |
| 199102 |
0.9855 |
4.8552 |
1.1929 |
-1.5615 |
| 199103 |
0.7286 |
4.5745 |
1.4349 |
-1.3935 |
| 199104 |
0.7367 |
4.5621 |
1.0604 |
-1.3181 |
| 199201 |
0.6579 |
4.5461 |
0.993 |
-1.3181 |
| 199202 |
0.5083 |
4.5133 |
1.1593 |
-1.3181 |
| 199203 |
0.3094 |
4.4566 |
1.2992 |
-1.5294 |
| 199204 |
0.1364 |
4.438 |
1.3374 |
-1.5294 |
| 199301 |
0.4006 |
4.4168 |
1.3649 |
-1.5294 |
| 199302 |
0.2593 |
4.4379 |
1.4628 |
-1.4188 |
| 199303 |
0.2666 |
4.4177 |
1.4816 |
-1.4188 |
| 199304 |
0.0304 |
4.4304 |
1.3853 |
-1.4188 |
| 199401 |
0.0559 |
4.4259 |
1.3888 |
-1.4188 |
| 199402 |
0.0811 |
4.4251 |
1.3439 |
-1.3775 |
| 199403 |
0.0815 |
4.4185 |
1.3475 |
-1.3775 |
| 199404 |
0.0265 |
4.4433 |
1.3305 |
-1.3775 |
| 199501 |
0.0595 |
4.4358 |
1.3389 |
-1.3775 |
| 199502 |
0.1694 |
4.4062 |
1.3517 |
-1.3775 |
| 199503 |
0.9522 |
5.6892 |
2.7169 |
-1.5576 |
| 199504 |
0.9795 |
5.7033 |
2.7211 |
-1.5576 |
| 199601 |
0.9868 |
5.7152 |
2.7116 |
-1.5576 |
| 199602 |
0.9677 |
5.7267 |
2.8148 |
-1.5576 |
| 199603 |
0.0957 |
4.7997 |
1.4825 |
-1.5576 |
| 199604 |
0.1238 |
4.7778 |
1.4587 |
-1.5576 |
| 199701 |
0.0626 |
4.8015 |
1.6585 |
-1.5032 |
| 199702 |
0.1167 |
4.7153 |
1.6211 |
-1.5032 |
| 199703 |
0.0807 |
4.708 |
1.5695 |
-1.5032 |
| 199704 |
0.0985 |
4.6952 |
1.5576 |
-1.5032 |
| 199801 |
0.0601 |
4.6961 |
1.5282 |
-1.5032 |
| 199802 |
0.0988 |
4.7087 |
1.509 |
-1.5032 |
| 199803 |
0.0739 |
4.7062 |
1.4991 |
-1.5032 |
| 199804 |
0.0742 |
4.6971 |
1.4905 |
-1.5032 |
| 199901 |
0.0352 |
4.7069 |
1.4706 |
-1.5032 |
| 199902 |
0.0952 |
4.691 |
1.485 |
-1.5032 |
| 199903 |
0.0284 |
4.9465 |
1.5688 |
-1.1855 |
| 199904 |
0.0144 |
4.9377 |
1.4364 |
-1.3175 |
| 200001 |
0.0193 |
4.9461 |
1.4434 |
-1.3175 |
| 200002 |
0.0226 |
4.9369 |
1.4333 |
-1.3175 |
| 200003 |
0.0618 |
4.9233 |
1.4368 |
-1.3175 |
| 200004 |
0.4099 |
4.8953 |
1.4371 |
-1.3175 |
| 200101 |
0.8449 |
4.9179 |
1.4063 |
-1.3175 |
| 200102 |
0.8409 |
4.8859 |
1.4296 |
-1.3175 |
| 200103 |
0.9831 |
4.8986 |
1.355 |
-1.3175 |
| 200104 |
0.7685 |
4.8983 |
1.3833 |
-1.3175 |
| 200201 |
0.2768 |
4.8928 |
1.5072 |
-1.3175 |
| 200202 |
0.1864 |
4.8429 |
1.3794 |
-1.3175 |
| 200203 |
0.2914 |
4.8275 |
1.4011 |
-1.3175 |
| 200204 |
0.6042 |
4.8407 |
1.4128 |
-1.3175 |
| 200301 |
0.8672 |
4.8833 |
1.4017 |
-1.3175 |
| 200302 |
0.8297 |
4.9007 |
1.4497 |
-1.1165 |
| 200303 |
0.3088 |
4.9252 |
1.4613 |
-1.0167 |
| 200304 |
0.0852 |
4.9089 |
1.393 |
-1.0167 |
| 200401 |
0.0508 |
4.9092 |
1.3682 |
-1.0167 |
| 200402 |
0.14 |
4.8404 |
1.2714 |
-1.1913 |
| 200403 |
0.1642 |
4.8249 |
1.2772 |
-1.1913 |
| 200404 |
0.0404 |
4.8315 |
1.2333 |
-1.1913 |
| 200501 |
0.0203 |
4.8609 |
1.2336 |
-1.1913 |
| 200502 |
0.0845 |
4.7845 |
1.146 |
-1.1913 |
| 200503 |
0.0789 |
4.7677 |
1.1461 |
-1.1913 |
| 200504 |
0.1072 |
4.7571 |
1.1387 |
-1.1913 |
| 200601 |
0.028 |
4.7541 |
1.113 |
-1.1913 |
| 200602 |
0.064 |
4.7435 |
1.0909 |
-1.1913 |
| 200603 |
0.261 |
4.7081 |
1.1076 |
-1.1913 |
| 200604 |
0.2857 |
4.6961 |
1.1371 |
-1.1913 |
| 200701 |
0.6456 |
4.7063 |
1.197 |
-1.1913 |
| 200702 |
0.3912 |
4.6919 |
1.351 |
-1.1913 |
| 200703 |
0.902 |
4.8237 |
1.6674 |
-1.1913 |
| 200704 |
0.9891 |
4.8191 |
1.5426 |
-1.1913 |
| 200801 |
0.9792 |
4.8306 |
1.546 |
-1.1913 |
| 200802 |
0.9179 |
4.7848 |
1.1768 |
-1.1913 |
| 200803 |
0.9921 |
4.7764 |
1.0653 |
-1.1913 |
| 200804 |
0.9999 |
4.7621 |
1.0827 |
-1.1913 |
| 200901 |
0.9992 |
4.7614 |
1.0908 |
-1.1913 |
| 200902 |
0.9941 |
4.749 |
1.0187 |
-1.2162 |
| 200903 |
0.6318 |
4.7361 |
1.0084 |
-1.2162 |
| 200904 |
0.0398 |
4.7514 |
1.0207 |
-1.2162 |
| 201001 |
0.0374 |
4.7394 |
1.0204 |
-1.2162 |
| 201002 |
0.1985 |
4.7164 |
0.9587 |
-1.512 |
Figure 13: Markov Switching Models, GDP and GDI
| Quarter |
Real Time Probabilities of Low-Growth State, 2-state model |
Real Time Probabilities of Recession plus Stall State, 3-state model |
| 197801 |
0.244067642125 |
0.424 |
| 197802 |
0.000175705801033 |
0.0057 |
| 197803 |
0.0226271325727 |
0.0703 |
| 197804 |
0.000953338984892 |
0.0076 |
| 197901 |
0.0605282240734 |
0.1701 |
| 197902 |
0.792155379481 |
0.9236 |
| 197903 |
0.745835838156 |
0.8942 |
| 197904 |
0.376362823789 |
0.7451 |
| 198001 |
0.797271802952 |
0.9545 |
| 198002 |
0.999900774525 |
1 |
| 198003 |
0.850589047909 |
0.8822 |
| 198004 |
0.0267545499787 |
0.0491 |
| 198101 |
0.00154438046897 |
0.0112 |
| 198102 |
0.0975865632999 |
0.3589 |
| 198103 |
0.407697839698 |
0.8156 |
| 198104 |
0.988403407152 |
0.9987 |
| 198201 |
0.995907949299 |
0.9985 |
| 198202 |
0.947380954423 |
0.9557 |
| 198203 |
0.941333464297 |
0.9407 |
| 198204 |
0.987935214211 |
0.9907 |
| 198301 |
0.36531461345 |
0.1762 |
| 198302 |
0.000215518930609 |
0.0049 |
| 198303 |
0.00154304453995 |
0.0146 |
| 198304 |
0.000595157367697 |
0.0399 |
| 198401 |
6.10580842746e-05 |
0.0058 |
| 198402 |
0.000153266002658 |
0.0034 |
| 198403 |
0.0589073087236 |
0.1673 |
| 198404 |
0.0225752572061 |
0.126 |
| 198501 |
0.383749447839 |
0.7014 |
| 198502 |
0.189992637363 |
0.6644 |
| 198503 |
0.123023321548 |
0.6823 |
| 198504 |
0.135185735289 |
0.8354 |
| 198601 |
0.0532627777029 |
0.7571 |
| 198602 |
0.354269785282 |
0.8275 |
| 198603 |
0.267637930297 |
0.8341 |
| 198604 |
0.142759471768 |
0.8567 |
| 198701 |
0.0473107547674 |
0.8214 |
| 198702 |
0.0397172455255 |
0.3841 |
| 198703 |
0.00356016759946 |
0.0769 |
| 198704 |
0.0192503562306 |
0.0776 |
| 198801 |
0.00342319786663 |
0.0497 |
| 198802 |
0.0679889733432 |
0.1499 |
| 198803 |
0.0207247479834 |
0.1335 |
| 198804 |
0.0155705080078 |
0.1348 |
| 198901 |
0.00258104131734 |
0.0486 |
| 198902 |
0.0566799718187 |
0.1711 |
| 198903 |
0.0140569532729 |
0.1207 |
| 198904 |
0.0667129900509 |
0.2807 |
| 199001 |
0.122565237163 |
0.4522 |
| 199002 |
0.787648883106 |
0.9017 |
| 199003 |
0.697726243688 |
0.8714 |
| 199004 |
0.958246624545 |
0.9864 |
| 199101 |
0.997219428931 |
0.9986 |
| 199102 |
0.984495077231 |
0.9855 |
| 199103 |
0.800446652024 |
0.7286 |
| 199104 |
0.838771458139 |
0.7367 |
| 199201 |
0.778424885845 |
0.6579 |
| 199202 |
0.684484429709 |
0.5083 |
| 199203 |
0.403694324983 |
0.3094 |
| 199204 |
0.0858440469566 |
0.1364 |
| 199301 |
0.293418735083 |
0.4006 |
| 199302 |
0.0849663759895 |
0.2593 |
| 199303 |
0.0745263678655 |
0.2666 |
| 199304 |
0.00272084486165 |
0.0304 |
| 199401 |
0.0180334511226 |
0.0559 |
| 199402 |
0.035795437631 |
0.0811 |
| 199403 |
0.0292684968807 |
0.0815 |
| 199404 |
0.00517065417074 |
0.0265 |
| 199501 |
0.0237831846874 |
0.0595 |
| 199502 |
0.0915207566496 |
0.1694 |
| 199503 |
0.0597688904347 |
0.9522 |
| 199504 |
0.0696170160844 |
0.9795 |
| 199601 |
0.103221212927 |
0.9868 |
| 199602 |
0.0214766427221 |
0.9677 |
| 199603 |
0.01117211261 |
0.0957 |
| 199604 |
0.0403393064862 |
0.1238 |
| 199701 |
0.00751850855797 |
0.0626 |
| 199702 |
0.0234366468596 |
0.1167 |
| 199703 |
0.0108911653325 |
0.0807 |
| 199704 |
0.0260787443344 |
0.0985 |
| 199801 |
0.0117088133588 |
0.0601 |
| 199802 |
0.0210359924717 |
0.0988 |
| 199803 |
0.0118381554604 |
0.0739 |
| 199804 |
0.0254907198723 |
0.0742 |
| 199901 |
0.00399957068913 |
0.0352 |
| 199902 |
0.0274426135947 |
0.0952 |
| 199903 |
0.00541705922115 |
0.0284 |
| 199904 |
0.00266834350906 |
0.0144 |
| 200001 |
0.00453252938977 |
0.0193 |
| 200002 |
0.00538185123257 |
0.0226 |
| 200003 |
0.0221653444313 |
0.0618 |
| 200004 |
0.296503651196 |
0.4099 |
| 200101 |
0.749282044747 |
0.8449 |
| 200102 |
0.638228599795 |
0.8409 |
| 200103 |
0.947913860001 |
0.9831 |
| 200104 |
0.634205413949 |
0.7685 |
| 200201 |
0.0833841714619 |
0.2768 |
| 200202 |
0.078011003389 |
0.1864 |
| 200203 |
0.123214912802 |
0.2914 |
| 200204 |
0.271273561463 |
0.6042 |
| 200301 |
0.572047187578 |
0.8672 |
| 200302 |
0.467184549849 |
0.8297 |
| 200303 |
0.0541909782882 |
0.3088 |
| 200304 |
0.0150944010555 |
0.0852 |
| 200401 |
0.0164647154267 |
0.0508 |
| 200402 |
0.0616265476609 |
0.14 |
| 200403 |
0.0714706502177 |
0.1642 |
| 200404 |
0.0102895643746 |
0.0404 |
| 200501 |
0.0074382463985 |
0.0203 |
| 200502 |
0.0382410186394 |
0.0845 |
| 200503 |
0.0263488003595 |
0.0789 |
| 200504 |
0.0489179503724 |
0.1072 |
| 200601 |
0.0062542847103 |
0.028 |
| 200602 |
0.0421560263602 |
0.064 |
| 200603 |
0.178480012817 |
0.261 |
| 200604 |
0.145693410158 |
0.2857 |
| 200701 |
0.465293774918 |
0.6456 |
| 200702 |
0.0782596824222 |
0.3912 |
| 200703 |
0.402221350548 |
0.902 |
| 200704 |
0.929856311537 |
0.9891 |
| 200801 |
0.925825914126 |
0.9792 |
| 200802 |
0.889333003964 |
0.9179 |
| 200803 |
0.986094955051 |
0.9921 |
| 200804 |
0.999891765144 |
0.9999 |
| 200901 |
0.998563057448 |
0.9992 |
| 200902 |
0.995443157369 |
0.9941 |
| 200903 |
0.805406451134 |
0.6318 |
| 200904 |
0.136410352463 |
0.0398 |
| 201001 |
0.0556783177141 |
0.0374 |
| 201002 |
0.133616747858 |
0.1985 |
Figure 14: Three-State Markov Switching Model with Stall State, GDI and TERM
| Quarter |
Smoothed Probabilities of Stall State |
Smoothed Probabilities of Recession |
TERM |
| 196201 |
0.3464 |
0 |
1.11 |
| 196202 |
0.88 |
0 |
1.1 |
| 196203 |
0.9735 |
0 |
1.2 |
| 196204 |
0.9974 |
0 |
0.93 |
| 196301 |
0.9996 |
0 |
1.04 |
| 196302 |
0.9999 |
0 |
1.01 |
| 196303 |
1 |
0 |
0.7 |
| 196304 |
1 |
0 |
0.63 |
| 196401 |
1 |
0 |
0.72 |
| 196402 |
1 |
0 |
0.68 |
| 196403 |
1 |
0 |
0.63 |
| 196404 |
1 |
0 |
0.39 |
| 196501 |
1 |
0 |
0.27 |
| 196502 |
1 |
0 |
0.39 |
| 196503 |
1 |
0 |
0.33 |
| 196504 |
1 |
0 |
0.16 |
| 196601 |
1 |
0 |
0.19 |
| 196602 |
1 |
0 |
0.39 |
| 196603 |
1 |
0 |
-0.32 |
| 196604 |
1 |
0 |
-0.17 |
| 196701 |
0.9999 |
0.0001 |
0.49 |
| 196702 |
0.9998 |
0.0001 |
1.22 |
| 196703 |
0.9999 |
0 |
0.92 |
| 196704 |
1 |
0 |
0.66 |
| 196801 |
1 |
0 |
0.59 |
| 196802 |
1 |
0 |
0.34 |
| 196803 |
1 |
0 |
0.33 |
| 196804 |
1 |
0 |
-0.09 |
| 196901 |
1 |
0 |
0.31 |
| 196902 |
0.9997 |
0.0003 |
0.44 |
| 196903 |
0.9951 |
0.0049 |
0.37 |
| 196904 |
0.8911 |
0.1089 |
-0.13 |
| 197001 |
0.2895 |
0.7105 |
0.7 |
| 197002 |
0.1751 |
0.8226 |
1.19 |
| 197003 |
0.1302 |
0.8453 |
1.45 |
| 197004 |
0.0008 |
0.9622 |
1.65 |
| 197101 |
0.0008 |
0.0167 |
1.89 |
| 197102 |
0.0021 |
0.0094 |
1.48 |
| 197103 |
0.0007 |
0.0052 |
1.4 |
| 197104 |
0.0004 |
0.0006 |
2.21 |
| 197201 |
0.0012 |
0 |
2.29 |
| 197202 |
0.0156 |
0 |
2.09 |
| 197203 |
0.1313 |
0 |
1.99 |
| 197204 |
0.7706 |
0 |
1.27 |
| 197301 |
0.9979 |
0 |
0.33 |
| 197302 |
1 |
0 |
-0.58 |
| 197303 |
1 |
0 |
-0.08 |
| 197304 |
0.9998 |
0.0002 |
-0.56 |
| 197401 |
0.9067 |
0.0933 |
-0.87 |
| 197402 |
0.4862 |
0.5138 |
0.3 |
| 197403 |
0.0177 |
0.9823 |
1.82 |
| 197404 |
0.0014 |
0.9986 |
0.34 |
| 197501 |
0 |
0.9723 |
2.48 |
| 197502 |
0 |
0.1382 |
2.1 |
| 197503 |
0 |
0.0011 |
1.9 |
| 197504 |
0 |
0.0001 |
2.56 |
| 197601 |
0 |
0 |
2.69 |
| 197602 |
0 |
0 |
2.49 |
| 197603 |
0 |
0 |
2.49 |
| 197604 |
0 |
0 |
2.47 |
| 197701 |
0.0001 |
0 |
2.88 |
| 197702 |
0.0089 |
0 |
2.22 |
| 197703 |
0.131 |
0 |
1.52 |
| 197704 |
0.2394 |
0.0015 |
1.65 |
| 197801 |
0.3961 |
0.0014 |
1.68 |
| 197802 |
0.6508 |
0 |
1.61 |
| 197803 |
0.992 |
0 |
0.58 |
| 197804 |
1 |
0 |
-0.11 |
| 197901 |
1 |
0 |
-0.33 |
| 197902 |
1 |
0 |
-0.14 |
| 197903 |
1 |
0 |
-0.68 |
| 197904 |
1 |
0 |
-1.71 |
| 198001 |
0.9996 |
0.0004 |
-1.6 |
| 198002 |
0.9279 |
0.072 |
2.21 |
| 198003 |
0.9279 |
0 |
0.42 |
| 198004 |
1 |
0 |
-1.87 |
| 198101 |
0.9998 |
0.0002 |
0.67 |
| 198102 |
0.9966 |
0.0034 |
-0.42 |
| 198103 |
0.9478 |
0.0522 |
1.5 |
| 198104 |
0.0004 |
0.9996 |
2.9 |
| 198201 |
0 |
0.9977 |
0.92 |
| 198202 |
0 |
0.7533 |
1.68 |
| 198203 |
0 |
0.4857 |
4.11 |
| 198204 |
0 |
0.4042 |
2.44 |
| 198301 |
0 |
0.0342 |
1.98 |
| 198302 |
0 |
0.0006 |
2.17 |
| 198303 |
0 |
0 |
2.73 |
| 198304 |
0 |
0 |
2.85 |
| 198401 |
0 |
0 |
2.81 |
| 198402 |
0 |
0 |
3.92 |
| 198403 |
0 |
0 |
2.25 |
| 198404 |
0 |
0 |
3.7 |
| 198501 |
0 |
0 |
3.47 |
| 198502 |
0 |
0 |
3.42 |
| 198503 |
0 |
0 |
3.27 |
| 198504 |
0.0164 |
0 |
1.95 |
| 198601 |
0.0847 |
0.0012 |
1.05 |
| 198602 |
0.0183 |
0.0693 |
1.39 |
| 198603 |
0.0023 |
0.0411 |
2.25 |
| 198604 |
0.001 |
0.0209 |
1.56 |
| 198701 |
0 |
0.0055 |
1.9 |
| 198702 |
0 |
0.0001 |
2.65 |
| 198703 |
0 |
0 |
3.02 |
| 198704 |
0 |
0 |
3.15 |
| 198801 |
0.0002 |
0 |
2.86 |
| 198802 |
0.0258 |
0 |
2.26 |
| 198803 |
0.4194 |
0 |
1.62 |
| 198804 |
0.9278 |
0 |
1.04 |
| 198901 |
0.9992 |
0 |
0.4 |
| 198902 |
0.9999 |
0.0001 |
0.11 |
| 198903 |
0.9997 |
0.0003 |
0.4 |
| 198904 |
0.9977 |
0.0023 |
0.38 |
| 199001 |
0.9894 |
0.0105 |
0.85 |
| 199002 |
0.9045 |
0.0955 |
0.69 |
| 199003 |
0.0942 |
0.9057 |
1.68 |
| 199004 |
0.0031 |
0.9881 |
1.64 |
| 199101 |
0 |
0.8202 |
2.31 |
| 199102 |
0 |
0.3561 |
2.7 |
| 199103 |
0 |
0.1789 |
2.36 |
| 199104 |
0 |
0.0366 |
2.83 |
| 199201 |
0 |
0.0001 |
3.49 |
| 199202 |
0 |
0 |
3.57 |
| 199203 |
0 |
0 |
3.68 |
| 199204 |
0 |
0 |
3.62 |
| 199301 |
0 |
0 |
3.14 |
| 199302 |
0 |
0 |
2.77 |
| 199303 |
0 |
0 |
2.48 |
| 199304 |
0 |
0 |
2.82 |
| 199401 |
0 |
0 |
3.29 |
| 199402 |
0 |
0 |
3.19 |
| 199403 |
0.0001 |
0 |
2.95 |
| 199404 |
0.0283 |
0 |
2.31 |
| 199501 |
0.5538 |
0 |
1.5 |
| 199502 |
0.9773 |
0 |
0.77 |
| 199503 |
0.9976 |
0.0001 |
0.93 |
| 199504 |
0.9973 |
0.0022 |
0.62 |
| 199601 |
0.9909 |
0.0072 |
1.34 |
| 199602 |
0.9896 |
0.0017 |
1.69 |
| 199603 |
0.9882 |
0.0026 |
1.81 |
| 199604 |
0.9906 |
0.0009 |
1.36 |
| 199701 |
0.992 |
0.0006 |
1.71 |
| 199702 |
0.9959 |
0.0001 |
1.45 |
| 199703 |
0.9991 |
0 |
1.19 |
| 199704 |
1 |
0 |
0.53 |
| 199801 |
1 |
0 |
0.65 |
| 199802 |
1 |
0 |
0.47 |
| 199803 |
1 |
0 |
0.18 |
| 199804 |
1 |
0 |
0.28 |
| 199901 |
1 |
0 |
0.88 |
| 199902 |
0.9998 |
0.0002 |
1.16 |
| 199903 |
0.9997 |
0.0001 |
1.16 |
| 199904 |
0.9998 |
0 |
1.28 |
| 200001 |
1 |
0 |
0.31 |
| 200002 |
1 |
0 |
0.32 |
| 200003 |
1 |
0 |
-0.25 |
| 200004 |
0.9971 |
0.0029 |
-0.61 |
| 200101 |
0.954 |
0.046 |
0.73 |
| 200102 |
0.0339 |
0.9657 |
1.85 |
| 200103 |
0.0002 |
0.9255 |
2.25 |
| 200104 |
0 |
0.4746 |
3.36 |
| 200201 |
0 |
0.0033 |
3.66 |
| 200202 |
0 |
0.0009 |
3.19 |
| 200203 |
0.0001 |
0.0008 |
2.09 |
| 200204 |
0 |
0.0003 |
2.63 |
| 200301 |
0 |
0.0001 |
2.71 |
| 200302 |
0 |
0 |
2.65 |
| 200303 |
0 |
0 |
3.03 |
| 200304 |
0 |
0 |
3.34 |
| 200401 |
0 |
0 |
2.93 |
| 200402 |
0 |
0 |
3.31 |
| 200403 |
0.0012 |
0 |
2.46 |
| 200404 |
0.0402 |
0 |
2.06 |
| 200501 |
0.3141 |
0 |
1.77 |
| 200502 |
0.9494 |
0 |
0.88 |
| 200503 |
0.9966 |
0 |
0.87 |
| 200504 |
1 |
0 |
0.4 |
| 200601 |
1 |
0 |
0.34 |
| 200602 |
1 |
0 |
0.28 |
| 200603 |
1 |
0 |
-0.13 |
| 200604 |
0.9994 |
0.0006 |
-0.18 |
| 200701 |
0.9637 |
0.0363 |
-0.25 |
| 200702 |
0.8806 |
0.1194 |
0.35 |
| 200703 |
0.598 |
0.402 |
0.87 |
| 200704 |
0.5283 |
0.4716 |
0.75 |
| 200801 |
0.0526 |
0.9474 |
2.09 |
| 200802 |
0.0006 |
0.9994 |
2.12 |
| 200803 |
0 |
1 |
2.95 |
| 200804 |
0 |
0.9999 |
2.14 |
| 200901 |
0 |
0.9866 |
2.5 |
| 200902 |
0 |
0.5402 |
3.34 |
| 200903 |
0 |
0.1486 |
3.17 |
| 200904 |
0 |
0.0002 |
3.79 |
| 201001 |
0 |
0 |
3.68 |
| 201002 |
0.0007 |
0 |
2.79 |
Figure 15: Three-State Markov Switching Model with Stall State, Housing Starts, GDI, and Unemployment Rate
| Quarter |
Smoothed Probabilities of Stall State |
Smoothed Probabilities of Recession |
Starts Contribution to GDP Growth |
| 196402 |
0 |
0 |
-2.2043 |
| 196403 |
0 |
0 |
0.5547 |
| 196404 |
0 |
0 |
-0.4075 |
| 196501 |
0 |
0 |
-1.2735 |
| 196502 |
0 |
0 |
0.8452 |
| 196503 |
0 |
0 |
0.1703 |
| 196504 |
0 |
0 |
0.5248 |
| 196601 |
0.0022 |
0 |
-1.8078 |
| 196602 |
0.0189 |
0 |
-1.505 |
| 196603 |
0.0268 |
0.0002 |
-2.7062 |
| 196604 |
0.0193 |
0.0085 |
-2.4396 |
| 196701 |
0.0035 |
0.0162 |
2.1705 |
| 196702 |
0 |
0.0051 |
1.5994 |
| 196703 |
0 |
0 |
2.1611 |
| 196704 |
0 |
0 |
0.5429 |
| 196801 |
0 |
0 |
0.1126 |
| 196802 |
0.0001 |
0 |
0.0038 |
| 196803 |
0.0012 |
0 |
0.7416 |
| 196804 |
0.0143 |
0 |
0.6688 |
| 196901 |
0.0608 |
0 |
1.03 |
| 196902 |
0.5504 |
0 |
-1.4896 |
| 196903 |
0.8277 |
0.0002 |
-1.6136 |
| 196904 |
0.9977 |
0.0023 |
-1.2576 |
| 197001 |
0.0011 |
0.9989 |
-0.9657 |
| 197002 |
0 |
1 |
0.963 |
| 197003 |
0 |
0.9998 |
1.8608 |
| 197004 |
0 |
0.9992 |
2.1564 |
| 197101 |
0 |
0.0005 |
1.1582 |
| 197102 |
0 |
0 |
1.7876 |
| 197103 |
0 |
0 |
0.6989 |
| 197104 |
0 |
0 |
1.0272 |
| 197201 |
0 |
0 |
1.8971 |
| 197202 |
0 |
0 |
-1.5867 |
| 197203 |
0 |
0 |
1.2586 |
| 197204 |
0.0003 |
0 |
0.4861 |
| 197301 |
0.0588 |
0 |
-0.4393 |
| 197302 |
0.8272 |
0 |
-2.4738 |
| 197303 |
0.9603 |
0 |
-1.3084 |
| 197304 |
0.9962 |
0.0004 |
-4.4245 |
| 197401 |
0.896 |
0.1039 |
-0.7093 |
| 197402 |
0.6451 |
0.3548 |
-0.8692 |
| 197403 |
0.4106 |
0.5894 |
-4.2017 |
| 197404 |
0 |
1 |
-2.8685 |
| 197501 |
0 |
1 |
-0.7322 |
| 197502 |
0 |
0.1355 |
1.3607 |
| 197503 |
0 |
0 |
2.3076 |
| 197504 |
0 |
0 |
1.1009 |
| 197601 |
0 |
0 |
1.156 |
| 197602 |
0.0003 |
0 |
0.0912 |
| 197603 |
0.0005 |
0.0001 |
1.2772 |
| 197604 |
0 |
0.0006 |
1.4522 |
| 197701 |
0 |
0 |
1.7005 |
| 197702 |
0 |
0 |
0.7955 |
| 197703 |
0 |
0 |
1.0249 |
| 197704 |
0.0001 |
0 |
0.7234 |
| 197801 |
0.0004 |
0 |
-2.795 |
| 197802 |
0.0005 |
0 |
3.2572 |
| 197803 |
0.1799 |
0 |
-1.0522 |
| 197804 |
0.3341 |
0 |
0.2331 |
| 197901 |
0.9246 |
0 |
-4.6616 |
| 197902 |
0.9472 |
0.0006 |
2.3078 |
| 197903 |
0.9811 |
0.0006 |
-0.6817 |
| 197904 |
0.9964 |
0.0007 |
-2.9283 |
| 198001 |
0.9691 |
0.0309 |
-4.8842 |
| 198002 |
0 |
1 |
-3.2182 |
| 198003 |
0 |
0.011 |
4.4936 |
| 198004 |
0.0019 |
0 |
1.3037 |
| 198101 |
0.5665 |
0 |
-1.7348 |
| 198102 |
0.9767 |
0.0001 |
-2.4992 |
| 198103 |
0.9902 |
0.0098 |
-3.4034 |
| 198104 |
0.0017 |
0.9983 |
-1.4973 |
| 198201 |
0.0001 |
0.9999 |
0.1044 |
| 198202 |
0 |
1 |
0.9797 |
| 198203 |
0 |
1 |
2.1024 |
| 198204 |
0 |
0.9983 |
1.7297 |
| 198301 |
0 |
0 |
3.2293 |
| 198302 |
0 |
0 |
0.283 |
| 198303 |
0 |
0 |
1.3795 |
| 198304 |
0 |
0 |
-0.7421 |
| 198401 |
0 |
0 |
2.1294 |
| 198402 |
0 |
0 |
-1.1575 |
| 198403 |
0.0001 |
0 |
-1.6027 |
| 198404 |
0.0002 |
0.0001 |
-0.4605 |
| 198501 |
0.0004 |
0 |
0.9116 |
| 198502 |
0 |
0.0004 |
0.1173 |
| 198503 |
0.0001 |
0 |
-0.2553 |
| 198504 |
0.0002 |
0 |
1.2446 |
| 198601 |
0.0001 |
0.0002 |
0.7198 |
| 198602 |
0.0003 |
0.0001 |
-0.2061 |
| 198603 |
0.0005 |
0 |
-1.305 |
| 198604 |
0.0006 |
0 |
-0.5376 |
| 198701 |
0 |
0.0006 |
0.5671 |
| 198702 |
0 |
0 |
-1.7684 |
| 198703 |
0 |
0 |
0.1597 |
| 198704 |
0.0002 |
0 |
-1.266 |
| 198801 |
0.0007 |
0 |
-1.2979 |
| 198802 |
0.0016 |
0 |
0.8492 |
| 198803 |
0.0106 |
0 |
-0.0845 |
| 198804 |
0.0348 |
0 |
0.8283 |
| 198901 |
0.4591 |
0 |
-0.7593 |
| 198902 |
0.7483 |
0.0107 |
-1.7164 |
| 198903 |
0.7719 |
0.0024 |
-0.1261 |
| 198904 |
0.7983 |
0.0065 |
-0.1113 |
| 199001 |
0.8217 |
0.0001 |
1.0763 |
| 199002 |
0.9941 |
0.0052 |
-2.717 |
| 199003 |
0.019 |
0.9809 |
-1.0923 |
| 199004 |
0.0066 |
0.9928 |
-1.2297 |
| 199101 |
0.0015 |
0.9821 |
-2.1682 |
| 199102 |
0.0013 |
0.2211 |
1.6232 |
| 199103 |
0.0172 |
0.0723 |
0.411 |
| 199104 |
0.0002 |
0.077 |
0.585 |
| 199201 |
0.0002 |
0.003 |
1.8633 |
| 199202 |
0.0001 |
0.0023 |
-1.0706 |
| 199203 |
0.0001 |
0 |
0.3964 |
| 199204 |
0.0001 |
0 |
0.5503 |
| 199301 |
0.0004 |
0 |
-0.7756 |
| 199302 |
0 |
0.0004 |
1.2483 |
| 199303 |
0 |
0 |
0.4008 |
| 199304 |
0 |
0 |
1.5887 |
| 199401 |
0 |
0 |
-0.5039 |
| 199402 |
0 |
0 |
0.8991 |
| 199403 |
0.0004 |
0 |
-0.1463 |
| 199404 |
0.0017 |
0 |
0.2065 |
| 199501 |
0.0093 |
0 |
-1.783 |
| 199502 |
0.0003 |
0.009 |
-0.4639 |
| 199503 |
0 |
0.0004 |
1.5129 |
| 199504 |
0 |
0.0001 |
0.023 |
| 199601 |
0 |
0 |
0.4989 |
| 199602 |
0 |
0 |
0.399 |
| 199603 |
0.0001 |
0 |
0.0653 |
| 199604 |
0 |
0.0001 |
-0.9953 |
| 199701 |
0 |
0 |
0.1852 |
| 199702 |
0 |
0 |
0.4991 |
| 199703 |
0 |
0 |
-0.2094 |
| 199704 |
0 |
0 |
0.8311 |
| 199801 |
0 |
0 |
0.2901 |
| 199802 |
0 |
0 |
0.1482 |
| 199803 |
0 |
0 |
0.641 |
| 199804 |
0 |
0 |
0.966 |
| 199901 |
0.0001 |
0 |
-0.1366 |
| 199902 |
0.0002 |
0.0001 |
-1.4867 |
| 199903 |
0.0002 |
0.0001 |
0.8644 |
| 199904 |
0.0007 |
0 |
0.0442 |
| 200001 |
0.0099 |
0 |
0.0477 |
| 200002 |
0.3442 |
0 |
-0.825 |
| 200003 |
0.6144 |
0.0003 |
-0.9731 |
| 200004 |
0.799 |
0.0531 |
0.4714 |
| 200101 |
0.1512 |
0.7236 |
0.6888 |
| 200102 |
0.2027 |
0.7941 |
0.2787 |
| 200103 |
0.0146 |
0.9852 |
-0.3431 |
| 200104 |
0 |
0.9983 |
-0.3494 |
| 200201 |
0 |
0.0094 |
1.7216 |
| 200202 |
0.0174 |
0.0011 |
-0.3513 |
| 200203 |
0.0389 |
0.0006 |
0.0715 |
| 200204 |
0.0139 |
0.0282 |
0.3608 |
| 200301 |
0.0191 |
0.002 |
0.0717 |
| 200302 |
0 |
0.0202 |
0.2028 |
| 200303 |
0 |
0.0001 |
1.5142 |
| 200304 |
0 |
0 |
1.5607 |
| 200401 |
0 |
0 |
-1.2842 |
| 200402 |
0 |
0 |
0.2167 |
| 200403 |
0 |
0 |
0.465 |
| 200404 |
0.0001 |
0 |
-0.138 |
| 200501 |
0.0002 |
0 |
1.2367 |
| 200502 |
0.0016 |
0 |
-0.2342 |
| 200503 |
0.0038 |
0.0001 |
0.5728 |
| 200504 |
0.0139 |
0 |
-0.3741 |
| 200601 |
0.0553 |
0 |
0.6172 |
| 200602 |
0.9412 |
0 |
-3.2989 |
| 200603 |
0.9861 |
0 |
-2.0189 |
| 200604 |
0.9959 |
0 |
-1.7846 |
| 200701 |
0.9996 |
0.0001 |
-1.4925 |
| 200702 |
0.9991 |
0.0007 |
-0.1401 |
| 200703 |
0.9984 |
0.0015 |
-2.2217 |
| 200704 |
0.9743 |
0.0255 |
-1.7377 |
| 200801 |
0.9214 |
0.0786 |
-1.4433 |
| 200802 |
0.0781 |
0.9219 |
-0.7424 |
| 200803 |
0.0067 |
0.9933 |
-2.1786 |
| 200804 |
0 |
1 |
-3.3573 |
| 200901 |
0 |
1 |
-2.6182 |
| 200902 |
0 |
0.9999 |
0.1372 |
| 200903 |
0 |
0.7595 |
0.8577 |
| 200904 |
0 |
0.009 |
-0.3657 |
| 201001 |
0.0001 |
0 |
0.8716 |
| 201002 |
0.0011 |
0 |
-0.2318 |
| 201003 |
0.0007 |
0.0008 |
-0.2251 |
| 201004 |
0.0011 |
0 |
-0.8613 |
Figure 16: Three-State Markov Switching Model with Stall State, Housing Starts, GDI, and Unemployment Rate
| Quarter |
Extended 1 Quarter Ahead with U and STARTS |
Extended 1 Quarter Ahead with U, STARTS, TERM and 4 lags of TERM |
Mean STARTS contribution in Expansion State |
Mean Starts Contribution in Stall State |
Mean Starts Contribution in Recessions |
| 197801 |
0.234 |
0.3387 |
0.3633 |
-2.0932 |
-0.8629 |
| 197802 |
0.1171 |
0.0949 |
0.3408 |
-1.6976 |
-0.8629 |
| 197803 |
0.027 |
0.1607 |
0.3144 |
-1.7066 |
-0.8629 |
| 197804 |
0.6862 |
0.7507 |
0.3165 |
-1.7225 |
-0.8629 |
| 197901 |
0.3148 |
0.9653 |
0.3056 |
-2.2139 |
-0.8629 |
| 197902 |
0.9952 |
0.9995 |
0.2996 |
-1.6394 |
-0.8629 |
| 197903 |
0.9938 |
0.9988 |
0.3162 |
-1.4431 |
-0.8629 |
| 197904 |
0.9997 |
1 |
0.3239 |
-1.5219 |
-0.8629 |
| 198001 |
1 |
1 |
0.3282 |
-1.7659 |
-0.8629 |
| 198002 |
0.0042 |
0.2209 |
0.3206 |
-1.7732 |
-0.8629 |
| 198003 |
0.0142 |
0.0205 |
0.4043 |
-1.7956 |
-0.8967 |
| 198004 |
0.1168 |
0.0104 |
0.4234 |
-1.8243 |
-0.8967 |
| 198101 |
0.3071 |
0.9634 |
0.3814 |
-1.8226 |
-0.8967 |
| 198102 |
0.9761 |
0.9753 |
0.3692 |
-1.8914 |
-0.8967 |
| 198103 |
1 |
1 |
0.3838 |
-2.0505 |
-0.8967 |
| 198104 |
0.6256 |
0.6995 |
0.3799 |
-2.0592 |
-0.8967 |
| 198201 |
0.9939 |
0.9614 |
0.3821 |
-2.0593 |
-0.8967 |
| 198202 |
0.9991 |
0.9899 |
0.4015 |
-1.9938 |
-0.8967 |
| 198203 |
0.9995 |
0.9999 |
0.3954 |
-1.9921 |
-0.8967 |
| 198204 |
0 |
0 |
0.3923 |
-1.9925 |
-0.8967 |
| 198301 |
0.0231 |
0.0003 |
0.4656 |
-1.9956 |
-0.8967 |
| 198302 |
0.0032 |
0.0038 |
0.4516 |
-1.9741 |
-0.6459 |
| 198303 |
0.013 |
0.0003 |
0.4757 |
-1.9751 |
-0.6459 |
| 198304 |
0.0038 |
0.0002 |
0.4448 |
-1.933 |
-0.6464 |
| 198401 |
0.0152 |
0.0001 |
0.4831 |
-1.9285 |
-0.6464 |
| 198402 |
0.4913 |
0.0229 |
0.4647 |
-1.9382 |
-0.6438 |
| 198403 |
0.3758 |
0.0404 |
0.4305 |
-1.9512 |
-0.6438 |
| 198404 |
0.0725 |
0.0084 |
0.3954 |
-1.928 |
-0.6374 |
| 198501 |
0.1398 |
0.1189 |
0.4136 |
-1.8993 |
-0.6374 |
| 198502 |
0.1553 |
0.0012 |
0.3982 |
-1.9108 |
-0.6374 |
| 198503 |
0.0818 |
0.0248 |
0.4151 |
-2.0399 |
-0.7051 |
| 198504 |
0.1456 |
0.0409 |
0.4158 |
-2.0904 |
-0.7051 |
| 198601 |
0.0713 |
0.1131 |
0.4469 |
-2.1138 |
-0.7051 |
| 198602 |
0.3828 |
0.4621 |
0.432 |
-2.1093 |
-0.7051 |
| 198603 |
0.4049 |
0.1638 |
0.4191 |
-2.0823 |
-0.7051 |
| 198604 |
0.1632 |
0.0306 |
0.4046 |
-2.0105 |
-0.7051 |
| 198701 |
0.1037 |
0.0063 |
0.3829 |
-2.133 |
-0.7051 |
| 198702 |
0.1228 |
0.0172 |
0.3603 |
-2.0748 |
-0.7051 |
| 198703 |
0.1123 |
0.0019 |
0.3383 |
-2.1372 |
-0.7051 |
| 198704 |
0.0631 |
0.0009 |
0.3158 |
-2.1453 |
-0.7051 |
| 198801 |
0.0221 |
0.0011 |
0.2986 |
-2.1524 |
-0.7051 |
| 198802 |
0.0886 |
0.0117 |
0.2961 |
-2.1475 |
-0.7051 |
| 198803 |
0.0183 |
0.012 |
0.2885 |
-2.1544 |
-0.7051 |
| 198804 |
0.0237 |
0.0476 |
0.3 |
-2.1626 |
-0.7051 |
| 198901 |
0.3563 |
0.5058 |
0.2895 |
-2.1645 |
-0.7051 |
| 198902 |
0.147 |
0.3562 |
0.2618 |
-2.1625 |
-0.7051 |
| 198903 |
0.0679 |
0.1513 |
0.2501 |
-2.1581 |
-0.7051 |
| 198904 |
0.0171 |
0.0285 |
0.2459 |
-2.16 |
-0.7051 |
| 199001 |
0.4142 |
0.2368 |
0.2584 |
-2.1786 |
-0.7051 |
| 199002 |
0.9956 |
0.9974 |
0.2857 |
-1.7588 |
-0.7051 |
| 199003 |
0.9871 |
0.9878 |
0.2919 |
-1.7102 |
-0.7051 |
| 199004 |
0.9996 |
0.9998 |
0.2908 |
-1.6895 |
-0.7051 |
| 199101 |
0.7788 |
0.795 |
0.2893 |
-1.7082 |
-0.7051 |
| 199102 |
0.0125 |
0.0046 |
0.2885 |
-1.713 |
-0.7051 |
| 199103 |
0.1788 |
0.0635 |
0.2711 |
-2.0315 |
-0.7151 |
| 199104 |
0.1563 |
0.0808 |
0.3081 |
-1.8349 |
-0.7246 |
| 199201 |
0.7903 |
0.6755 |
0.3262 |
-1.8632 |
-0.7246 |
| 199202 |
0.0423 |
0.0029 |
0.3023 |
-1.7827 |
-0.7246 |
| 199203 |
0.0198 |
0.0003 |
0.3006 |
-2.0118 |
-0.8046 |
| 199204 |
0.0572 |
0.0014 |
0.3207 |
-1.8501 |
-0.8269 |
| 199301 |
0.0619 |
0.0037 |
0.3009 |
-1.8703 |
-0.8269 |
| 199302 |
0.0129 |
0.0013 |
0.2975 |
-2.003 |
-0.8251 |
| 199303 |
0.005 |
0.0009 |
0.3029 |
-2.0195 |
-0.8251 |
| 199304 |
0.1333 |
0.0081 |
0.3261 |
-1.9948 |
-0.8293 |
| 199401 |
0.0101 |
0.0006 |
0.3085 |
-1.9926 |
-0.8293 |
| 199402 |
0.0239 |
0.0008 |
0.3148 |
-1.9749 |
-0.8293 |
| 199403 |
0.0123 |
0.0008 |
0.3153 |
-1.9817 |
-0.8293 |
| 199404 |
0.2917 |
0.0434 |
0.3195 |
-1.9647 |
-0.8293 |
| 199501 |
0.1879 |
0.0994 |
0.2914 |
-1.9652 |
-0.8293 |
| 199502 |
0.0381 |
0.0599 |
0.2842 |
-1.9516 |
-0.8293 |
| 199503 |
0.0389 |
0.0442 |
0.2543 |
-2.2104 |
-0.8085 |
| 199504 |
0.0136 |
0.0195 |
0.2414 |
-2.3309 |
-0.8085 |
| 199601 |
0.0098 |
0.009 |
0.2457 |
-2.341 |
-0.8085 |
| 199602 |
0.0196 |
0.0108 |
0.2468 |
-2.3398 |
-0.8085 |
| 199603 |
0.0688 |
0.0177 |
0.2446 |
-2.3456 |
-0.8085 |
| 199604 |
0.018 |
0.0072 |
0.2335 |
-2.3486 |
-0.8085 |
| 199701 |
0.0178 |
0.0068 |
0.2384 |
-2.3689 |
-0.8082 |
| 199702 |
0.0184 |
0.0098 |
0.2369 |
-2.3502 |
-0.8082 |
| 199703 |
0.0054 |
0.0038 |
0.2339 |
-2.3538 |
-0.8082 |
| 199704 |
0.0085 |
0.0102 |
0.2405 |
-2.3494 |
-0.8082 |
| 199801 |
0.0141 |
0.0231 |
0.2439 |
-2.3528 |
-0.8082 |
| 199802 |
0.012 |
0.0225 |
0.2427 |
-2.3237 |
-0.8082 |
| 199803 |
0.0052 |
0.014 |
0.2467 |
-2.336 |
-0.8082 |
| 199804 |
0.0042 |
0.0103 |
0.2511 |
-2.3471 |
-0.8082 |
| 199901 |
0.1515 |
0.1496 |
0.2567 |
-2.3409 |
-0.8082 |
| 199902 |
0.0197 |
0.0194 |
0.2383 |
-2.3554 |
-0.8082 |
| 199903 |
0.0277 |
0.0101 |
0.2784 |
-1.8161 |
-0.8058 |
| 199904 |
0.0217 |
0.0129 |
0.2783 |
-1.8141 |
-0.8058 |
| 200001 |
0.0783 |
0.1167 |
0.2808 |
-1.8081 |
-0.8058 |
| 200002 |
0.0653 |
0.1601 |
0.266 |
-1.8082 |
-0.8058 |
| 200003 |
0.0526 |
0.2993 |
0.2556 |
-1.8102 |
-0.8058 |
| 200004 |
0.1492 |
0.2577 |
0.2546 |
-1.8197 |
-0.8058 |
| 200101 |
0.1525 |
0.5844 |
0.2572 |
-1.8222 |
-0.8058 |
| 200102 |
0.4242 |
0.9281 |
0.2501 |
-1.9055 |
-0.8058 |
| 200103 |
0.9997 |
1 |
0.2609 |
-1.6082 |
-0.8058 |
| 200104 |
0.0419 |
0.1 |
0.2619 |
-1.5957 |
-0.8058 |
| 200201 |
0.1095 |
0.0059 |
0.2749 |
-1.5878 |
-0.8058 |
| 200202 |
0.0205 |
0.0005 |
0.2696 |
-1.5804 |
-0.8058 |
| 200203 |
0.115 |
0.0087 |
0.2693 |
-1.5909 |
-0.8058 |
| 200204 |
0.0391 |
0.0061 |
0.2709 |
-1.5897 |
-0.8058 |
| 200301 |
0.855 |
0.6593 |
0.2673 |
-1.5903 |
-0.8058 |
| 200302 |
0.0143 |
0.0018 |
0.2701 |
-1.4469 |
-0.7248 |
| 200303 |
0.0042 |
0.0003 |
0.2859 |
-1.5725 |
-0.7315 |
| 200304 |
0.0795 |
0.0026 |
0.2977 |
-1.5714 |
-0.7315 |
| 200401 |
0.0607 |
0.0021 |
0.2871 |
-1.5703 |
-0.7315 |
| 200402 |
0.0301 |
0.0015 |
0.2819 |
-1.5929 |
-0.7315 |
| 200403 |
0.0551 |
0.0068 |
0.2837 |
-1.6112 |
-0.7315 |
| 200404 |
0.0087 |
0.0021 |
0.2824 |
-1.6135 |
-0.7315 |
| 200501 |
0.0462 |
0.0316 |
0.2916 |
-1.605 |
-0.7315 |
| 200502 |
0.0504 |
0.0538 |
0.285 |
-1.6019 |
-0.7315 |
| 200503 |
0.0496 |
0.0811 |
0.2864 |
-1.6377 |
-0.7315 |
| 200504 |
0.0162 |
0.0566 |
0.2798 |
-1.6406 |
-0.7315 |
| 200601 |
0.3192 |
0.4534 |
0.283 |
-1.6537 |
-0.7315 |
| 200602 |
0.5961 |
0.7978 |
0.2614 |
-1.7126 |
-0.7315 |
| 200603 |
0.9446 |
0.9838 |
0.2715 |
-1.8006 |
-0.7315 |
| 200604 |
0.9717 |
0.9943 |
0.2776 |
-1.8203 |
-0.7315 |
| 200701 |
0.9841 |
0.9966 |
0.2827 |
-1.7709 |
-0.7315 |
| 200702 |
0.9906 |
0.9946 |
0.2856 |
-1.6079 |
-0.7315 |
| 200703 |
0.9977 |
0.9981 |
0.2893 |
-1.6265 |
-0.7315 |
| 200704 |
0.9903 |
0.9863 |
0.2889 |
-1.6526 |
-0.7315 |
| 200801 |
0.9972 |
0.9984 |
0.2897 |
-1.6359 |
-0.7315 |
| 200802 |
0.9985 |
0.9995 |
0.289 |
-1.6159 |
-0.7315 |
| 200803 |
1 |
0.9999 |
0.2879 |
-1.6392 |
-0.7315 |
| 200804 |
1 |
1 |
0.2836 |
-1.6418 |
-0.7315 |
| 200901 |
1 |
0.9999 |
0.2827 |
-1.6439 |
-0.7315 |
| 200902 |
0.8958 |
0.7716 |
0.2836 |
-1.6441 |
-0.7315 |
| 200903 |
0.5945 |
0.3414 |
0.283 |
-1.6458 |
-0.7315 |
| 200904 |
0.0077 |
0.0001 |
0.2787 |
-1.6471 |
-0.7315 |
| 201001 |
0.0322 |
0.0006 |
0.2845 |
-1.6441 |
-0.7315 |
| 201002 |
0.1117 |
0.0035 |
0.2832 |
-1.6258 |
-0.9191 |
| 201003 |
0.1278 |
0.0105 |
0.2795 |
-1.6271 |
-0.9191 |
| 201004 |
0.0266 |
0.0022 |
0.2708 |
-1.6309 |
-0.9191 |
Figure 17: GDP Growth Forecasts Conditional on State in Quarter Zero
| Quarters Ahead |
Expansion |
Stall |
Recession |
| 1 |
4.1974 |
0.9728 |
-0.0411 |
| 2 |
4.0182 |
0.7334 |
0.916 |
| 3 |
3.8356 |
0.7765 |
1.6164 |
| 4 |
3.6656 |
0.9748 |
2.1175 |
| 5 |
3.5161 |
1.2446 |
2.4671 |
| 6 |
3.3898 |
1.5333 |
2.7039 |
| 7 |
3.2866 |
1.8097 |
2.8588 |
| 8 |
3.2046 |
2.0574 |
2.9554 |
| 9 |
3.1408 |
2.2694 |
3.0117 |
| 10 |
3.0924 |
2.4447 |
3.0408 |
| 11 |
3.0564 |
2.5854 |
3.0525 |
| 12 |
3.0302 |
2.6957 |
3.0534 |