The Federal Reserve Board eagle logo links to home page
Skip to: [Printable Version (PDF)] [Bibliography] [Footnotes]
Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 001079 ♣

Financial Capital and the Macroeconomy: A Quantitative Framework

Michael T. Kiley and Jae W. Sim

Figure 1: Effects of Uncertainty Shock: Friction (blue solid) vs Frictionless (black circle) Economy.

Uncertainty Shock_Frictionless Equity Cutoff_Frictionless Dividends Payouts_Frictionless Equity Issuance_Frictionless Shadow Value_Frictionless Cost of Capital_Frictionless Spreads_Frictionless Lending_Frictionless Hours_Frictionless Consumption_Frictionless Investment_Frictionless Output_Frictionless Uncertainty Shock_Friction Equity Cutoff_Friction Dividends Payouts_Friction Equity Issuance_Friction Shadow Value_Friction Cost of Capital_Friction Spreads_Friction Lending_Friction Hours_Friction Consumption_Friction Investment_Friction Output_Friction
10.000000 0.000000 9.748533 10.251905 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 -0.000000 10.0000000 0.1083696 5.5208029 15.0395100 0.6843105 10.4715994 27.7011950 -0.5834748 -0.2369440 0.0226412 -0.7296276 -0.1777080
8.500000 0.000000 8.286253 8.714119 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 -0.000000 8.5000000 0.0260037 6.1637035 10.9337945 0.3577194 7.6083748 21.9259674 -0.1030926 -0.3678361 0.0402841 -1.1639565 -0.2804373
7.225000 0.000000 7.043315 7.407001 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 -0.000000 7.2250000 -0.0383688 6.6057823 7.6227782 0.0992170 5.3014092 6.6590877 0.0352676 -0.4080586 0.0508311 -1.3331685 -0.3177649
6.141250 0.000000 5.986818 6.295951 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 -0.000000 6.1412500 -0.0513966 6.0271064 5.9480512 0.0207078 4.1412085 0.9945855 0.0235846 -0.3942600 0.0545254 -1.3346732 -0.3154552
5.220063 0.000000 5.088795 5.351558 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 -0.000000 5.2200625 -0.0462318 5.1546330 4.9596157 0.0089818 3.4630819 -0.5381903 -0.0158896 -0.3558033 0.0527337 -1.2509062 -0.2944603
4.437053 0.000000 4.325476 4.548825 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 -0.000000 4.4370531 -0.0370261 4.2946156 4.2429196 0.0153270 2.9755684 -0.5957352 -0.0450064 -0.3103044 0.0470927 -1.1340015 -0.2674642
3.771495 0.000000 3.676655 3.866501 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 -0.000000 3.7714952 -0.0287201 3.5472261 3.6415272 0.0223506 2.5680266 -0.2955799 -0.0583125 -0.2664299 0.0390730 -1.0117059 -0.2407774
3.205771 0.000000 3.125156 3.286526 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 -0.000000 3.2057709 -0.0223936 2.9258566 3.1074025 0.0258354 2.2061916 -0.0218653 -0.0600240 -0.2275338 0.0298260 -0.8965949 -0.2169046
2.724905 0.000000 2.656383 2.793547 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 -0.000000 2.7249053 -0.0178144 2.4147113 2.6303138 0.0260932 1.8826730 0.1427901 -0.0553151 -0.1943126 0.0201771 -0.7931592 -0.1964360
2.316169 0.000000 2.257925 2.374515 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 -0.000000 2.3161695 -0.0144838 1.9927600 2.2090977 0.0244097 1.5966753 0.2153310 -0.0478914 -0.1663542 0.0106796 -0.7021163 -0.1791570
1.968744 0.000000 1.919237 2.018338 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 -0.000000 1.9687440 -0.0119798 1.6417238 1.8422598 0.0218710 1.3472885 0.2311919 -0.0398722 -0.1429115 0.0016797 -0.6226781 -0.1646034
1.673432 0.000000 1.631351 1.715587 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 -0.000000 1.6734324 -0.0100190 1.3475397 1.5262244 0.0191453 1.1321859 0.2186844 -0.0322738 -0.1232306 -0.0066237 -0.5536031 -0.1522989
1.422418 0.000000 1.386648 1.458249 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 -0.000000 1.4224176 -0.0084295 1.0997090 1.2559440 0.0165670 0.9480107 0.1950964 -0.0254831 -0.1066596 -0.0141335 -0.4936211 -0.1418338
1.209055 0.000000 1.178651 1.239512 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 1.2090549 -0.0071105 0.8902906 1.0258323 0.0142669 0.7910132 0.1693141 -0.0195775 -0.0926654 -0.0208197 -0.4415723 -0.1328773
1.027697 0.000000 1.001854 1.053585 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 1.0276967 -0.0060014 0.7130859 0.8304296 0.0122707 0.6575121 0.1451808 -0.0145050 -0.0808173 -0.0266955 -0.3964338 -0.1251666
0.873542 0.000000 0.851575 0.895547 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.8735422 -0.0050632 0.5630963 0.6647508 0.0105591 0.5441380 0.1239521 -0.0101716 -0.0707665 -0.0318007 -0.3573097 -0.1184924
0.742511 0.000000 0.723839 0.761215 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.7425109 -0.0042675 0.4361881 0.5244108 0.0090977 0.4479242 0.1057388 -0.0064794 -0.0622272 -0.0361903 -0.3234140 -0.1126857
0.631134 0.000000 0.615263 0.647033 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.6311342 -0.0035925 0.3288885 0.4056279 0.0078511 0.3663108 0.0902391 -0.0033395 -0.0549627 -0.0399268 -0.2940564 -0.1076083
0.536464 0.000000 0.522974 0.549978 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.5364641 -0.0030201 0.2382555 0.3051709 0.0067872 0.2971106 0.0770609 -0.0006746 -0.0487757 -0.0430748 -0.2686302 -0.1031462
0.455994 0.000000 0.444528 0.467481 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.4559945 -0.0025347 0.1617881 0.2202906 0.0058786 0.2384627 0.0658400 0.0015815 -0.0435004 -0.0456981 -0.2466034 -0.0992045
0.387595 0.000000 0.377849 0.397359 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.3875953 -0.0021234 0.0973574 0.1486498 0.0051024 0.1887855 0.0562695 0.0034859 -0.0389972 -0.0478576 -0.2275106 -0.0957039
0.329456 0.000000 0.321171 0.337755 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.3294560 -0.0017748 0.0431519 0.0882623 0.0044390 0.1467348 0.0480973 0.0050878 -0.0351483 -0.0496097 -0.2109458 -0.0925778
0.280038 0.000000 0.272996 0.287092 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.2800376 -0.0014794 -0.0023696 0.0374392 0.0038719 0.1111681 0.0411155 0.0064296 -0.0318542 -0.0510063 -0.1965566 -0.0897702
0.238032 0.000000 0.232046 0.244028 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.2380320 -0.0012291 -0.0405176 -0.0052559 0.0033872 0.0811136 0.0351507 0.0075483 -0.0290307 -0.0520941 -0.1840371 -0.0872341
0.202327 0.000000 0.197239 0.207424 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.2023272 -0.0010171 -0.0724061 -0.0410448 0.0029728 0.0557446 0.0300560 0.0084758 -0.0266065 -0.0529150 -0.1731232 -0.0849296
0.171978 0.000000 0.167653 0.176310 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.1719781 -0.0008375 -0.0989820 -0.0709671 0.0026184 0.0343581 0.0257062 0.0092397 -0.0245213 -0.0535059 -0.1635869 -0.0828234
0.146181 0.000000 0.142505 0.149864 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.1461814 -0.0006854 -0.1210499 -0.0959072 0.0023154 0.0163557 0.0219938 0.0098639 -0.0227241 -0.0538995 -0.1552321 -0.0808871
0.124254 0.000000 0.121130 0.127384 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.1242542 -0.0005566 -0.1392935 -0.1166173 0.0020560 0.0012287 0.0188267 0.0103688 -0.0211715 -0.0541245 -0.1478901 -0.0790968
0.105616 0.000000 0.102960 0.108277 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.1056160 -0.0004476 -0.1542938 -0.1337372 0.0018341 -0.0114557 0.0161258 0.0107722 -0.0198270 -0.0542058 -0.1414163 -0.0774323
0.089774 0.000000 0.087516 0.092035 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.0897736 -0.0003554 -0.1665446 -0.1478111 0.0016440 -0.0220658 0.0138229 0.0110891 -0.0186595 -0.0541651 -0.1356865 -0.0758764
Return to Figure 1

Figure 2: An Index of Idiosyncratic Uncertainty in the Financial Sector

  Index for Idiosyncratic Uncertainty
1973Q1 1.2770870
1973Q2 1.9264450
1973Q3 1.4595290
1973Q4 1.4626360
1974Q1 1.0000000
1974Q2 1.3213530
1974Q3 1.7283800
1974Q4 1.5364130
1975Q1 1.3389400
1975Q2 1.0951290
1975Q3 1.0919450
1975Q4 1.3457550
1976Q1 1.1532660
1976Q2 0.9422510
1976Q3 0.9577890
1976Q4 1.0032760
1977Q1 0.8349850
1977Q2 1.0158070
1977Q3 0.7180870
1977Q4 0.8430010
1978Q1 0.7753650
1978Q2 1.0097250
1978Q3 0.8747760
1978Q4 1.1388840
1979Q1 0.8795340
1979Q2 0.7669900
1979Q3 0.7867070
1979Q4 0.9400180
1980Q1 1.1356900
1980Q2 1.0367660
1980Q3 0.9274040
1980Q4 1.0406710
1981Q1 1.2787260
1981Q2 0.9842580
1981Q3 1.1638050
1981Q4 1.0125810
1982Q1 1.1471870
1982Q2 1.1667230
1982Q3 1.4792870
1982Q4 1.4140580
1983Q1 1.2470480
1983Q2 1.3863460
1983Q3 1.1495400
1983Q4 1.0722440
1984Q1 1.1260260
1984Q2 1.6351300
1984Q3 1.7221360
1984Q4 1.0986940
1985Q1 1.4000010
1985Q2 0.9032600
1985Q3 1.0623970
1985Q4 1.0064600
1986Q1 1.5788540
1986Q2 1.3482500
1986Q3 1.2366690
1986Q4 1.4354550
1987Q1 1.5020420
1987Q2 1.5044480
1987Q3 0.9849670
1987Q4 2.3662440
1988Q1 1.3077540
1988Q2 1.1266890
1988Q3 0.9484680
1988Q4 1.2513890
1989Q1 0.9228170
1989Q2 0.8673560
1989Q3 0.8721410
1989Q4 1.1048270
1990Q1 1.0606430
1990Q2 1.0861800
1990Q3 1.3617100
1990Q4 1.8114410
1991Q1 1.5781750
1991Q2 1.4083300
1991Q3 1.4511250
1991Q4 1.3513240
1992Q1 1.2019130
1992Q2 1.0967760
1992Q3 0.8993980
1992Q4 1.1547800
1993Q1 1.0612830
1993Q2 1.1095550
1993Q3 0.9591800
1993Q4 1.0905500
1994Q1 0.9962820
1994Q2 1.1274600
1994Q3 0.8240760
1994Q4 0.9396770
1995Q1 0.9054040
1995Q2 0.8688590
1995Q3 0.8428950
1995Q4 1.0192390
1996Q1 1.1040150
1996Q2 0.8020990
1996Q3 0.9198890
1996Q4 0.8928410
1997Q1 1.1156760
1997Q2 1.2184800
1997Q3 1.1064160
1997Q4 1.2221400
1998Q1 1.1075440
1998Q2 1.4674970
1998Q3 1.4384230
1998Q4 1.9363490
1999Q1 1.3369060
1999Q2 1.2951270
1999Q3 1.1624550
1999Q4 1.4696310
2000Q1 1.6823290
2000Q2 1.8072580
2000Q3 1.5546790
2000Q4 1.6717230
2001Q1 1.2882900
2001Q2 1.3257760
2001Q3 1.0482090
2001Q4 0.9761640
2002Q1 0.7886860
2002Q2 0.7666150
2002Q3 1.1205800
2002Q4 0.9526940
2003Q1 0.7121910
2003Q2 0.6629120
2003Q3 0.6036080
2003Q4 0.7498300
2004Q1 0.6515180
2004Q2 0.7189200
2004Q3 0.9080460
2004Q4 0.7433450
2005Q1 0.5453320
2005Q2 0.5655650
2005Q3 0.5215460
2005Q4 0.6169250
2006Q1 0.5866990
2006Q2 0.7877940
2006Q3 0.7379600
2006Q4 0.5391100
2007Q1 0.5277500
2007Q2 0.5362800
2007Q3 0.9175040
2007Q4 1.2273400
2008Q1 1.7393910
2008Q2 1.7054620
2008Q3 2.8809990
2008Q4 3.2948740
2009Q1 3.6199060
2009Q2 2.4085610
2009Q3 2.4370810
2009Q4 1.2155550
2010Q1 0.9268200
2010Q2 0.9800910
2010Q3 0.8511530
2010Q4 0.9056080
2011Q1 1.1510060
Return to Figure 2

Figure 3: Impact of Intermediation Shock: Bayesian Sign Restrictions, Baseline Case.}

Uncertainty_Model Shadow Value_Model Spreads_Model Lending_Model Hours_Model Investment_Model Output_Model Uncertainty_Lower_Confidence Uncertainty_BVAR Uncertainty_Upper_Confidence Willingness to Lend_Lower_Confidence Willingness to Lend_BVAR Willingness to Lend_Upper_Confidence Spreads_lower_confidence Spreads_BVAR Spreads_upper_confidence Lending_lower_confidence Lending_BVAR Lending_upper_confidence Hours_lower_confidence Hours_BVAR Hours_upper_confidence Investment_lower_confidence Investment_BVAR Investment_upper_confidence Output_lower_confidence Output_BVAR Output_upper_confidence
10.0000000 0.6843105 27.7011950 -0.5834748 -0.2369440 -0.7296276 -0.1777080 4.3243736 10.0000000 15.6656001 0.8383477 0.4539434 0.1640402 6.3616500 15.7844666 25.7685324803773 -1.74271196392116 -0.853555455328383 -0.254032750442444 0.056565363516279 -0.035643002830053 -0.120907772657587 -0.918859323747795 -0.296105959193328 0.39800187177751 -0.350891971894439 -0.110196509554601 0.13775446082708
8.5000000 0.3577194 21.9259674 -0.1030926 -0.3678361 -1.1639565 -0.2804373 2.7126778 6.3994683 10.4018494 0.7048551 0.4820692 0.2241029 12.2295537 22.0234232 33.3072673 -1.3295625 -0.8436501 -0.4181967 0.0023993 -0.1123511 -0.2167603 -1.7098176 -0.9553430 -0.0824135 -0.527141454411681 -0.303248928862068 -0.047976276603575
7.2250000 0.0992170 6.6590877 0.0352676 -0.4080586 -1.3331685 -0.3177649 3.4264357 6.9303014 10.7799281 0.5270196 0.3420180 0.1886391 11.1070293 19.4203595 28.9479610 -1.4747608 -1.0698258 -0.6761568 -0.0546957 -0.1880413 -0.3053268 -2.2211782 -1.3447539 -0.3511002 -0.607645508556172 -0.364019349756956 -0.091433267078712
6.1412500 0.0207078 0.9945855 0.0235846 -0.3942600 -1.3346732 -0.3154552 2.2385047 5.3648918 8.5344143 0.3839109 0.2286939 0.0818827 6.9046038 14.3307984 21.5071912 -1.6375934 -1.1507852 -0.6645526 -0.1085535 -0.2466355 -0.3812557 -2.5441136 -1.5837230 -0.5270760 -0.659184868935613 -0.403255066627299 -0.130910040368838
5.2200625 0.0089818 -0.5381903 -0.0158896 -0.3558033 -1.2509062 -0.2944603 0.7562596 3.9057814 7.0453416 0.2499028 0.1032632 -0.0348661 2.5066049 9.1029759 15.7091629 -1.4998396 -1.0063730 -0.5386488 -0.1265583 -0.2710547 -0.4212171 -2.7416220 -1.6261461 -0.5196855 -0.686991058587385 -0.396639578705902 -0.115603033165282
4.4370531 0.0153270 -0.5957352 -0.0450064 -0.3103044 -1.1340015 -0.2674642 -0.4131686 2.4734839 5.5609128 0.1515093 0.0037937 -0.1377781 -1.1568686 5.3883710 12.1407679 -1.2681621 -0.7921530 -0.3170767 -0.1282626 -0.2710321 -0.4309830 -2.7079527 -1.6083814 -0.4637000 -0.66165358976945 -0.365677890736496 -0.08818369349586
3.7714952 0.0223506 -0.2955799 -0.0583125 -0.2664299 -1.0117059 -0.2407774 -1.4568213 1.4479013 4.4217586 0.0846748 -0.0636397 -0.2088906 -3.2389261 2.9372452 9.5758748 -1.0317989 -0.5817367 -0.0659672 -0.1090070 -0.2594691 -0.4219924 -2.7048165 -1.5118714 -0.3064908 -0.646983268342172 -0.333631086547913 -0.046879712336321
3.2057709 0.0258354 -0.0218653 -0.0600240 -0.2275338 -0.8965949 -0.2169046 -2.0280474 0.7105156 3.4938733 0.0430198 -0.1069305 -0.2475729 -4.2870488 1.2519827 7.6435854 -0.8448200 -0.3848727 0.0983310 -0.0943680 -0.2415781 -0.4012387 -2.6374060 -1.4577051 -0.2044635 -0.623762838037867 -0.310983906485269 -0.017185969773798
2.7249053 0.0260932 0.1427901 -0.0553151 -0.1943126 -0.7931592 -0.1964360 -2.3317699 0.2486065 2.8673715 0.0169358 -0.1248315 -0.2578225 -5.0358005 0.5949569 6.2941288 -0.7057794 -0.2466432 0.2133024 -0.0735296 -0.2162225 -0.3818021 -2.5558395 -1.3357435 -0.1080935 -0.599195918413578 -0.2853497983696 0.002439921637355
2.3161695 0.0244097 0.2153310 -0.0478914 -0.1663542 -0.7021163 -0.1791570 -2.6164293 -0.0532627 2.5389490 0.0077061 -0.1256360 -0.2528441 -5.1078326 0.0817449 5.4858567 -0.6181124 -0.1666782 0.2870872 -0.0518922 -0.1960335 -0.3581745 -2.4629880 -1.2376978 -0.0488947 -0.586369732447982 -0.276667300511362 0.010020406319773
1.9687440 0.0218710 0.2311919 -0.0398722 -0.1429115 -0.6226781 -0.1646034 -2.6497390 -0.2267244 2.3072110 0.0086963 -0.1169074 -0.2476445 -5.4836181 -0.2083142 4.8755507 -0.5374859 -0.1261336 0.2954688 -0.0342459 -0.1766975 -0.3352480 -2.3997689 -1.1418482 0.0115151 -0.577779948883061 -0.260030163684641 0.016883701090346
1.6734324 0.0191453 0.2186844 -0.0322738 -0.1232306 -0.5536031 -0.1522989 -2.6028726 -0.2582804 2.1791881 0.0085936 -0.1073294 -0.2415464 -5.4082560 -0.3286226 4.4069283 -0.4651146 -0.0926723 0.3023016 -0.0229212 -0.1572727 -0.3216296 -2.3228509 -1.0819292 0.0700062 -0.561305774885719 -0.258950708425482 0.01266426164549
1.4224176 0.0165670 0.1950964 -0.0254831 -0.1066596 -0.4936211 -0.1418338 -2.4628111 -0.2044776 2.1761478 0.0120448 -0.1010356 -0.2326770 -5.5483494 -0.4511407 3.8913291 -0.4239010 -0.0690149 0.2976294 -0.0120937 -0.1392908 -0.3051354 -2.2478008 -1.0151715 0.0943065 -0.555911243970846 -0.244685449553655 0.012015652041017
1.2090549 0.0142669 0.1693141 -0.0195775 -0.0926654 -0.4415723 -0.1328773 -2.2361928 -0.2217378 2.0468942 0.0157560 -0.0909244 -0.2185960 -5.5188531 -0.6528047 3.3910152 -0.3998992 -0.0653562 0.2998673 0.0013207 -0.1241658 -0.2850064 -2.1772744 -0.9483877 0.1795832 -0.549653806924659 -0.227911710862696 0.019621037763778
1.0276967 0.0122707 0.1451808 -0.0145050 -0.0808173 -0.3964338 -0.1251666 -2.1107206 -0.2209810 1.9620745 0.0160782 -0.0830443 -0.2054740 -5.4454773 -0.8507475 2.9615187 -0.3882378 -0.0517826 0.2833281 0.0139060 -0.1111569 -0.2689308 -2.0924924 -0.8697380 0.1962455 -0.537432677245871 -0.218849776247339 0.026314555832751
0.8735422 0.0105591 0.1239521 -0.0101716 -0.0707665 -0.3573097 -0.1184924 -1.9549287 -0.1492854 1.8883580 0.0151711 -0.0772965 -0.1928287 -5.3854988 -0.8900976 2.6564538 -0.3658839 -0.0386196 0.2832753 0.0232309 -0.1002837 -0.2596705 -2.0118323 -0.8133349 0.2500539 -0.522928042727619 -0.203414128711914 0.032055914801023
Return to Figure 3

Figure 4: Impact of Intermediation Shock: Bayesian Sign Restrictions, Alternative 1 (No restriction on lending)

Uncertainty_Model Shadow Value_Model Spreads_Model Lending_Model Hours_Model Investment_Model Output_Model Uncertainty_Lower_Confidence Uncertainty_BVAR Uncertainty_Upper_Confidence Willingness to Lend_Lower_Confidence Willingness to Lend_BVAR Willingness to Lend_Upper_Confidence Spreads_lower_confidence Spreads_BVAR Spreads_upper_confidence Lending_lower_confidence Lending_BVAR Lending_upper_confidence Hours_lower_confidence Hours_BVAR Hours_upper_confidence Investment_lower_confidence Investment_BVAR Investment_upper_confidence Output_lower_confidence Output_BVAR Output_upper_confidence
10.000000 0.684310 27.701195 -0.583475 -0.236944 -0.729628 -0.177708 4.174630 10.000000 16.093440 0.836283 0.445953 0.128995 6.974347 17.584610 28.233372 -1.201948 0.194156 1.486455 0.086650 -0.008701 -0.097972 -0.881557 -0.170293 0.548552 -0.337168 -0.075431 0.207054
8.500000 0.357719 21.925967 -0.103093 -0.367836 -1.163956 -0.280437 3.612732 7.577682 11.730550 0.724820 0.451982 0.192712 12.738530 23.865512 36.274702 -1.145981 -0.494979 0.101874 0.048196 -0.077950 -0.186218 -1.679736 -0.769739 0.169907 -0.498470 -0.226760 0.048432
7.225000 0.099217 6.659088 0.035268 -0.408059 -1.333168 -0.317765 4.019066 7.697886 11.832403 0.605492 0.414932 0.227662 10.576489 19.523733 29.987118 -1.523908 -1.020856 -0.531927 -0.021822 -0.167102 -0.292940 -2.307927 -1.282273 -0.165236 -0.616673 -0.341824 -0.042006
6.141250 0.020708 0.994586 0.023585 -0.394260 -1.334673 -0.315455 2.566947 5.733483 9.554132 0.469586 0.285122 0.116405 7.308526 14.461080 22.875374 -1.772444 -1.195064 -0.653741 -0.088766 -0.236395 -0.387689 -2.723248 -1.549607 -0.389332 -0.701999 -0.408524 -0.109066
5.220063 0.008982 -0.538190 -0.015890 -0.355803 -1.250906 -0.294460 1.196702 4.154702 7.843091 0.322676 0.149520 -0.004498 3.323650 9.763259 17.223441 -1.673121 -1.084833 -0.550145 -0.126702 -0.276846 -0.438781 -2.918435 -1.667551 -0.444819 -0.740428 -0.434799 -0.125524
4.437053 0.015327 -0.595735 -0.045006 -0.310304 -1.134002 -0.267464 0.030767 2.972603 6.494811 0.213599 0.043973 -0.111145 0.215816 6.763807 14.212641 -1.441338 -0.879773 -0.346015 -0.139320 -0.286162 -0.448916 -3.001759 -1.718283 -0.525463 -0.730964 -0.414969 -0.126467
3.771495 0.022351 -0.295580 -0.058312 -0.266430 -1.011706 -0.240777 -0.843116 2.076391 5.312455 0.137913 -0.030033 -0.186141 -1.967704 4.375113 11.920556 -1.199395 -0.658117 -0.142578 -0.130338 -0.278559 -0.450189 -3.018789 -1.690356 -0.467486 -0.710313 -0.396014 -0.118644
3.205771 0.025835 -0.021865 -0.060024 -0.227534 -0.896595 -0.216905 -1.452015 1.395587 4.367411 0.078332 -0.078965 -0.237175 -3.148789 2.890796 10.354317 -1.030001 -0.472387 0.010365 -0.118491 -0.266148 -0.440557 -3.028749 -1.637436 -0.384200 -0.716368 -0.370699 -0.092177
2.724905 0.026093 0.142790 -0.055315 -0.194313 -0.793159 -0.196436 -1.841890 0.918051 3.825543 0.043852 -0.107170 -0.249904 -3.881435 2.015820 8.575797 -0.896366 -0.343243 0.164890 -0.106810 -0.246530 -0.429855 -2.948131 -1.557000 -0.254347 -0.703830 -0.351200 -0.078550
2.316169 0.024410 0.215331 -0.047891 -0.166354 -0.702116 -0.179157 -2.268514 0.555299 3.392738 0.018435 -0.124318 -0.249720 -4.452771 1.291209 6.830611 -0.795328 -0.254495 0.226186 -0.086507 -0.224546 -0.411228 -2.922964 -1.525436 -0.189765 -0.696766 -0.343533 -0.067351
1.968744 0.021871 0.231192 -0.039872 -0.142912 -0.622678 -0.164603 -2.449117 0.324474 3.115944 0.007920 -0.123055 -0.249167 -4.825533 0.622279 5.766357 -0.709363 -0.186774 0.261506 -0.072114 -0.206187 -0.396835 -2.885569 -1.450310 -0.098363 -0.693789 -0.331538 -0.059483
1.673432 0.019145 0.218684 -0.032274 -0.123231 -0.553603 -0.152299 -2.526836 0.146989 2.846082 0.001935 -0.116873 -0.245801 -5.349674 0.194791 5.456516 -0.641797 -0.144216 0.268785 -0.052394 -0.191435 -0.374516 -2.784477 -1.356373 -0.002874 -0.681392 -0.321854 -0.047727
1.422418 0.016567 0.195096 -0.025483 -0.106660 -0.493621 -0.141834 -2.491408 0.060769 2.728889 -0.005078 -0.118170 -0.242012 -5.657542 -0.128552 4.767124 -0.585839 -0.118028 0.284343 -0.039828 -0.175030 -0.359390 -2.744110 -1.284263 0.059130 -0.659942 -0.315427 -0.045764
1.209055 0.014267 0.169314 -0.019578 -0.092665 -0.441572 -0.132877 -2.345277 0.011165 2.609435 -0.007664 -0.109624 -0.232835 -5.838573 -0.435650 4.096963 -0.531306 -0.093373 0.300498 -0.025253 -0.156064 -0.341015 -2.638454 -1.192122 0.127199 -0.644324 -0.299506 -0.031649
1.027697 0.012271 0.145181 -0.014505 -0.080817 -0.396434 -0.125167 -2.228716 0.049660 2.400905 -0.004247 -0.103977 -0.228381 -5.970726 -0.605178 3.652940 -0.495945 -0.065727 0.303946 -0.010596 -0.137974 -0.319714 -2.580573 -1.107429 0.183951 -0.646724 -0.278333 -0.020198
0.873542 0.010559 0.123952 -0.010172 -0.070767 -0.357310 -0.118492 -2.088719 0.028616 2.308099 -0.003849 -0.098121 -0.215027 -6.284664 -0.768237 3.244053 -0.463383 -0.046749 0.312614 0.002167 -0.119338 -0.303543 -2.458067 -1.026994 0.241440 -0.623826 -0.261591 -0.003774
Return to Figure 4

Figure 5: Impact of Intermediation Shock: Bayesian Sign Restrictions, Alternative 2 (1974Q1--2007Q4 Sample).

Uncertainty_Model Shadow Value_Model Spreads_Model Lending_Model Hours_Model Investment_Model Output_Model Uncertainty_Lower_Confidence Uncertainty_BVAR Uncertainty_Upper_Confidence Willingness to Lend_Lower_Confidence Willingness to Lend_BVAR Willingness to Lend_Upper_Confidence Spreads_lower_confidence Spreads_BVAR Spreads_upper_confidence Lending_lower_confidence Lending_BVAR Lending_upper_confidence Hours_lower_confidence Hours_BVAR Hours_upper_confidence Investment_lower_confidence Investment_BVAR Investment_upper_confidence Output_lower_confidence Output_BVAR Output_upper_confidence
10.0000000 0.6843105 27.7011950 -0.5834748 -0.2369440 -0.7296276 -0.1777080 4.5131920 10.0000000 16.3746060 1.0441276 0.5357339 0.1956180 6.4977517 16.2980740 25.3794291 -1.9876519 -0.9732681 -0.3039012 0.1263203 0.0248120 -0.0893315 -0.6236068 0.2238725 0.9607570 -0.3250372 -0.0146823 0.3085964
8.5000000 0.3577194 21.9259674 -0.1030926 -0.3678361 -1.1639565 -0.2804373 1.8442672 4.6536474 8.4769538 0.9367195 0.6387766 0.3146745 9.8511564 18.0666987 27.1157509 -1.7489570 -1.0754044 -0.5299543 0.0909958 -0.0336692 -0.1719362 -1.2890949 -0.3657129 0.6173057 -0.4910163 -0.1974305 0.1010908
7.2250000 0.0992170 6.6590877 0.0352676 -0.4080586 -1.3331685 -0.3177649 2.4850765 4.9894256 8.1392667 0.5112812 0.3107379 0.1334584 8.6950882 15.8203220 23.0232305 -1.6904447 -1.1811814 -0.6720713 0.0356552 -0.0992904 -0.2499088 -1.7047093 -0.5820432 0.5026146 -0.5858011 -0.2401799 0.0809134
6.1412500 0.0207078 0.9945855 0.0235846 -0.3942600 -1.3346732 -0.3154552 1.8210028 4.1750647 6.9574840 0.3628963 0.1906966 0.0674143 5.8640471 12.4034252 19.4805977 -1.6058984 -1.1264418 -0.6203537 -0.0137470 -0.1576032 -0.3167662 -1.9507002 -0.7937785 0.3684954 -0.6146469 -0.2727317 0.0548920
5.2200625 0.0089818 -0.5381903 -0.0158896 -0.3558033 -1.2509062 -0.2944603 0.8639870 3.2441863 5.9307394 0.2641434 0.0891628 -0.0535557 3.4075938 10.2345641 17.3745533 -1.4781874 -0.9483569 -0.4751147 -0.0496102 -0.1925526 -0.3462026 -2.1272836 -0.9208203 0.3414437 -0.6030287 -0.2805530 0.0540512
4.4370531 0.0153270 -0.5957352 -0.0450064 -0.3103044 -1.1340015 -0.2674642 0.0725465 2.4736337 5.0529300 0.1456523 -0.0123164 -0.1764433 1.1450576 7.9100646 14.9007618 -1.2876526 -0.7469940 -0.2866300 -0.0522312 -0.2019397 -0.3575134 -2.1323315 -0.9081245 0.3643223 -0.5972238 -0.2736344 0.0538946
3.7714952 0.0223506 -0.2955799 -0.0583125 -0.2664299 -1.0117059 -0.2407774 -0.5565973 1.7838060 4.3960986 0.0769616 -0.0769038 -0.2700347 -0.8951523 5.4667758 12.6475531 -1.1001899 -0.5498858 -0.0523516 -0.0423290 -0.2028183 -0.3584055 -2.1930009 -0.8334049 0.4196264 -0.5735451 -0.2373816 0.0915961
3.2057709 0.0258354 -0.0218653 -0.0600240 -0.2275338 -0.8965949 -0.2169046 -1.1602157 1.1614703 3.6791066 0.0325349 -0.1309432 -0.3229723 -3.1439056 3.7909255 10.6787911 -0.9383253 -0.3447397 0.1530844 -0.0225647 -0.1834975 -0.3496633 -2.1099334 -0.7580310 0.5213829 -0.5470323 -0.1902144 0.1152993
2.7249053 0.0260932 0.1427901 -0.0553151 -0.1943126 -0.7931592 -0.1964360 -1.5468958 0.5818258 3.0108124 0.0009433 -0.1721351 -0.3582925 -4.5496716 1.9691377 8.8636311 -0.7410422 -0.1686373 0.3028228 -0.0053135 -0.1617752 -0.3288455 -1.9924649 -0.6267392 0.6316458 -0.5159332 -0.1567306 0.1530721
2.3161695 0.0244097 0.2153310 -0.0478914 -0.1663542 -0.7021163 -0.1791570 -1.8442794 0.1327002 2.3904671 -0.0135647 -0.1876835 -0.3724392 -5.9927039 0.6386455 7.0274202 -0.5708674 -0.0286807 0.4374039 0.0206368 -0.1371038 -0.3015725 -1.8336395 -0.4888732 0.7736725 -0.4541000 -0.1209681 0.1798149
1.9687440 0.0218710 0.2311919 -0.0398722 -0.1429115 -0.6226781 -0.1646034 -2.0684232 -0.1695490 1.8654139 -0.0127199 -0.1888823 -0.3680240 -6.3949202 -0.4921549 5.5973137 -0.4445780 0.0633230 0.5329677 0.0445710 -0.1069003 -0.2683025 -1.6792648 -0.3558551 0.8296806 -0.4107209 -0.0890437 0.1955165
1.6734324 0.0191453 0.2186844 -0.0322738 -0.1232306 -0.5536031 -0.1522989 -2.2792414 -0.4422111 1.4582672 -0.0019154 -0.1764483 -0.3563655 -7.0322882 -1.3007722 4.4470968 -0.3297194 0.1490464 0.5931946 0.0642940 -0.0748737 -0.2351014 -1.5177553 -0.2530358 0.9016063 -0.3557364 -0.0538762 0.2235925
1.4224176 0.0165670 0.1950964 -0.0254831 -0.1066596 -0.4936211 -0.1418338 -2.4474650 -0.5823765 1.1983056 0.0167097 -0.1524861 -0.3400049 -7.4226360 -1.7837484 3.8993043 -0.2204248 0.1995183 0.6107018 0.0831154 -0.0483407 -0.1978002 -1.3275808 -0.1198800 0.9385638 -0.3148276 -0.0305763 0.2312214
1.2090549 0.0142669 0.1693141 -0.0195775 -0.0926654 -0.4415723 -0.1328773 -2.4398479 -0.6312997 1.0254935 0.0386489 -0.1311693 -0.3208685 -7.6852712 -1.9534118 3.2076260 -0.1718485 0.2163471 0.6275430 0.0995996 -0.0297670 -0.1650474 -1.0999754 -0.0166461 1.0210647 -0.2729522 -0.0026786 0.2335466
1.0276967 0.0122707 0.1451808 -0.0145050 -0.0808173 -0.3964338 -0.1251666 -2.4139599 -0.5949220 0.9231740 0.0549058 -0.1048905 -0.3022884 -8.0032694 -1.9983986 3.0600903 -0.1364302 0.2127071 0.6249769 0.1089112 -0.0124142 -0.1409265 -0.9789798 0.0484617 1.0143678 -0.2281681 0.0169714 0.2443086
0.8735422 0.0105591 0.1239521 -0.0101716 -0.0707665 -0.3573097 -0.1184924 -2.2577156 -0.5540488 0.8564423 0.0747886 -0.0771602 -0.2628204 -7.8350043 -1.8463630 3.0121301 -0.1444641 0.2207006 0.5983515 0.1182410 -0.0003599 -0.1122936 -0.8569786 0.0841296 1.0738358 -0.2055650 0.0297891 0.2438864
Return to Figure 5

Figure 6: Estimates of Financial Shocks: Financial Uncertainty Shock (blue solid) vs Bassett et al (2010) estimates (black circle: Upper panel--VAR Cholesky Ordering; Lower Panel--Micro-based Loan Supply Shock).

  RECURSIVE_VAR STRUCTURAL_VAR WEIGHTED_MICRO_DATA
1990Q4 -0.5179250 0.9751620 NA
1991Q1 -0.7025650 -0.5175580 NA
1991Q2 0.2733490 0.7959970 NA
1991Q3 -1.5418680 1.1506200 NA
1991Q4 -0.4381910 0.2932720 NA
1992Q1 0.3157200 -0.6637920 0.3378610
1992Q2 0.2189490 0.6115870 1.2803050
1992Q3 -0.1488190 -0.5182250 -0.2719940
1992Q4 0.3262050 1.5398200 0.1167290
1993Q1 -1.3787440 0.9857420 -0.9897260
1993Q2 -0.8066540 0.0268110 -1.2230920
1993Q3 0.6352660 -0.4761700 -0.4200730
1993Q4 -0.2970170 0.2728780 -0.7320320
1994Q1 -0.1588500 0.2025890 -0.1998460
1994Q2 0.1413530 -0.0844640 0.1383770
1994Q3 -0.8762850 -1.7645220 -0.8793050
1994Q4 0.6090310 0.0992980 0.3970180
1995Q1 -1.5140160 -1.4527470 -1.1733820
1995Q2 0.3865940 -0.4625550 0.3500450
1995Q3 0.0139600 -0.8574940 0.5115170
1995Q4 -1.2149950 0.7857610 -0.2020020
1996Q1 0.1332250 0.6068120 0.0549280
1996Q2 0.6627020 -1.4921310 0.6973680
1996Q3 -0.0228070 0.9308330 0.4441560
1996Q4 -0.4345320 0.6572490 -0.3524460
1997Q1 -0.3147210 0.9692910 -0.5143210
1997Q2 0.0223620 -0.3846080 -0.5381620
1997Q3 0.3297260 -0.0979080 0.0365360
1997Q4 -0.3748430 0.1371270 0.2466450
1998Q1 -1.0777950 -0.5557680 -0.5983850
1998Q2 0.8108660 1.2158420 0.3159500
1998Q3 2.1453450 0.2289900 2.5008410
1998Q4 -3.3498020 -0.2705850 -1.9322800
1999Q1 0.3230380 -0.6971970 -0.3664990
1999Q2 -0.9087910 0.6684070 -0.5037200
1999Q3 0.0119400 -1.0184000 -0.7459060
1999Q4 0.6812950 0.1082130 -0.3743680
2000Q1 -0.4719120 -0.3166310 -0.4090870
2000Q2 0.0873230 -0.1051740 0.7768970
2000Q3 1.0288870 0.3227390 0.2043390
2000Q4 0.2950260 -0.1101390 0.9629910
2001Q1 -0.8746680 -1.1804700 -0.2844210
2001Q2 -0.4570040 0.0125850 -0.1928790
2001Q3 1.0288250 0.8499700 1.5635100
2001Q4 -0.5060110 -0.1855590 0.5458960
2002Q1 -1.7470560 0.8676120 -0.1975620
2002Q2 0.6510870 0.9406370 0.2905020
2002Q3 -0.8051960 0.5200120 0.5931040
2002Q4 0.2541090 -0.4369860 -0.0357180
2003Q1 -0.5213140 -0.9796010 -0.2141320
2003Q2 -0.9938100 -0.0827860 -0.6876370
2003Q3 0.1857200 0.2081180 -0.1391020
2003Q4 -1.1087240 1.2623590 -0.5065400
2004Q1 0.7211000 -1.0539050 -0.4307720
2004Q2 -0.0449720 0.0989800 0.1692990
2004Q3 -0.4568650 0.2726030 -0.0909800
2004Q4 -0.2321840 -1.2937880 -0.6054100
2005Q1 -0.2736210 -1.3059980 -0.2337640
2005Q2 0.6168690 -0.3085950 -0.4733150
2005Q3 -0.1086120 -0.9649250 -0.3896950
2005Q4 0.1164980 -0.0383200 -0.5207710
2006Q1 -1.2481560 -0.1582800 -1.7185010
2006Q2 -0.4108790 0.3250980 -1.5703030
2006Q3 0.7724500 -0.4651370 -0.6063040
2006Q4 0.8721760 -1.5642700 -0.3140520
2007Q1 -0.4753430 -0.1405170 -1.0417940
2007Q2 1.5813900 -0.8506650 1.2657390
2007Q3 3.6936830 -0.5044840 2.5146890
2007Q4 1.5841160 -0.3150570 1.8332490
2008Q1 2.1197460 1.2737210 2.6209220
2008Q2 1.3222480 0.0353360 2.6858400
2008Q3 0.3827940 2.7759870 1.9134620
2008Q4 -0.9437080 3.6460600 0.1562850
2009Q1 -0.7966360 0.9863030 -1.9319370
2009Q2 0.2386040 -2.2057570 -0.0068010
2009Q3 1.5388880 -0.2083060 1.9267890
2009Q4 -1.3238630 -0.3808870 -1.0828330
2010Q1 0.3190340 -2.5761830 -1.2941450
Return to Figure 6

Figure 7: Effects of Balance Sheet Transfer Shock: Friction (blue solid) vs Frictionless (black circle) Economy.

Balance Sheet Shock_Frictionless Equity Cutoff_Frictionless Dividends Payouts_Frictionless Equity Issuance_Frictionless Shadow Value_Frictionless Cost of Capital_Frictionless Spreads_Frictionless Lending_Frictionless Hours_Frictionless Consumption_Frictionless Investment_Frictionless Output_Frictionless Balance Sheet Shock_Friction Equity Cutoff_Friction Dividends Payouts_Friction Equity Issuance_Friction Shadow Value_Friction Cost of Capital_Friction Spreads_Friction Lending_Friction Hours_Friction Consumption_Friction Investment_Friction Output_Friction
20.484251 -2.037395 49.590963 -52.562425 0.000000 -0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.212440406198079 -0.02331531577534 0.5331222260074 -0.638035159491135 -0.078979006919042 -0.445305720206668 -3.12059190057404 0.002687880611607 0.002959446221377 -0.000200039081663 0.008885133585944 0.002219584664486
12.290551 -1.222437 29.754578 -31.537455 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.127487461923299 -0.01245424990564 0.285631949961291 -0.339960553197576 -0.042187903391357 -0.237288611623354 -1.70698672028285 0.002504771756977 0.004044059062172 -0.000329637471525 0.012505028703004 0.003088576379326
7.374330 -0.733462 17.852747 -18.922473 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.076545678004508 -0.006513166996246 0.149745013338113 -0.177419486775853 -0.022062899178293 -0.123847765557761 -0.842371122311358 0.001808244146509 0.003793325108039 -0.000371221817471 0.012201743215909 0.002977294040982
4.424598 -0.440077 10.711648 -11.353484 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.045948922537966 -0.003581335940582 0.082621889141481 -0.097273081065172 -0.01213152585005 -0.067972187639254 -0.430823412870662 0.001339652724426 0.002984304722255 -0.000341772839401 0.010116267369163 0.002443482141723
2.654759 -0.264046 6.426989 -6.812090 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.027574457731439 -0.002081876346222 0.048382996413977 -0.05619224854802 -0.007052210998865 -0.039394346931609 -0.23400331581076 0.00115467840112 0.002113950850089 -0.000268894695059 0.007682643903045 0.001848812068952
1.592855 -0.158428 3.856193 -4.087254 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.016544850226811 -0.001267439371531 0.02989408283359 -0.033770977290112 -0.004293362520077 -0.023839674142367 -0.135998918323699 0.001144218732194 0.00139899988899 -0.000177278021903 0.005572464182577 0.001354031649492
0.955713 -0.095057 2.313716 -2.452352 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.009926295140851 -0.00079410185827 0.019223877899458 -0.02066484868318 -0.002689964689435 -0.014769029628647 -0.083517150940549 0.001206263771569 0.000887295163296 -8.4077854412e-05 0.003976872309095 0.000997461463227
0.573428 -0.057034 1.388230 -1.471411 0.000000 -0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.005955334085019 -0.00050342454239 0.01270952773331 -0.012578114799266 -0.0017053155445 -0.009179876887289 -0.052965326318222 0.001280693318568 0.000551789067149 9.15574235e-07 0.002860081080414 0.000762387590897
0.344057 -0.034220 0.832938 -0.882847 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.003572983561075 -0.000319081342035 0.008591860732921 -0.007435992970629 -0.001080865803541 -0.005626565319239 -0.033958373595389 0.001341413117552 0.000344980488862 7.3371969813e-05 0.002112488283929 0.000616443019237
0.206434 -0.020532 0.499763 -0.529708 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.002143703625962 -0.000200890901183 0.005953071850817 -0.004137928625759 -0.000680503924005 -0.003345625990425 -0.021700992249896 0.001381771167751 0.000223182871313 0.000132376722327 0.001622946368539 0.00052935516657
0.123860 -0.012319 0.299858 -0.317825 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.001286193952047 -0.000125361670264 0.004262804519937 -0.002034268502907 -0.000424653919276 -0.001888166029462 -0.013722316343023 0.001403707521058 0.000153845030197 0.000178844350761 0.001303784838386 0.000478446000223
0.074316 -0.007392 0.179915 -0.190695 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000771710185628 -7.7601826479e-05 0.003188140167332 -0.000709896345889 -0.000262870777711 -0.000968006509172 -0.008565276189132 0.001411709525667 0.000115322864323 0.00021447804281 0.001093655618683 0.00044862647537
0.044590 -0.004435 0.107949 -0.114417 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000463026836265 -4.7790806055e-05 0.002510856615284 0.000110264832175 -0.000161888024099 -0.000395641305939 -0.005280345889536 0.001410126305242 9.4250039842e-05 0.000241169307491 0.000952455720657 0.000430603846445
0.026754 -0.002661 0.064769 -0.068650 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000277818266571 -2.9412823177e-05 0.002086580934451 0.000609138148619 -9.9633888194e-05 -4.5018747841e-05 -0.003222238920109 0.001402313693978 8.2790215044e-05 0.000260694803811 0.00085496167455 0.00041896391818
0.016052 -0.001597 0.038862 -0.041190 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000166692910341 -1.8197979879e-05 0.00182079410008 0.000906686877929 -6.1644388292e-05 0.000166579955585 -0.001952404526473 0.001390591027074 7.6517855335e-05 0.000274591275343 0.000785580671036 0.000410681377434
0.009631 -0.000958 0.023317 -0.024714 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000100017156654 -1.1402732426e-05 0.001652772206857 0.001079998737949 -3.8625961228e-05 0.000292345520303 -0.001178684506198 0.001376465854273 7.2998862526e-05 0.000284126593813 0.000734675145245 0.000404119687365
0.005779 -0.000575 0.013990 -0.014828 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 6.0011227497e-05 -7.30037926e-06 0.001544297857235 0.001177590703452 -2.4729525847e-05 0.000365773087663 -0.000711472926351 0.00136088676814 7.0917966919e-05 0.000290316715583 0.000696208314263 0.000398416471797
0.003467 -0.000345 0.008394 -0.008897 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 3.6007327708e-05 -4.824132906e-06 0.001471768489474 0.001229446277937 -1.6341413937e-05 0.000407569394101 -0.000430830470077 0.001344443891009 6.9572426227e-05 0.000293960551355 0.000666312927746 0.000393127918318
0.002080 -0.000207 0.005036 -0.005338 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 2.1604762048e-05 -3.324648749e-06 0.001420832951076 0.001253831698581 -1.1262015882e-05 0.000430349897917 -0.000262545661101 0.001327506195355 6.8589755853e-05 0.000295678497509 0.000642444971391 0.000388031656361
0.001248 -0.000124 0.003022 -0.003203 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.2963079863e-05 -2.410871552e-06 0.001382866259548 0.001261765175126 -8.166659326e-06 0.000441722473776 -0.000161493809125 0.001310308296678 6.7774377033e-05 0.000295948177115 0.000622886872484 0.000383020669823
Return to Figure 7
♣ This version is optimized for use by screen readers. Descriptions for all mathematical expressions are provided in LaTex format. A printable pdf version is available. Return to Text
Home | Working Papers | Accessibility | Contact us
Last update: May 16, 2011