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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 2011-28 ♣

Financial Capital and the Macroeconomy: Policy Considerations

Michael T. Kiley and Jae W. Sim

Figure 1: Uncertainty, Cost of Equity Issuance and Return Premium

Case_phi=0.15 Case_phi=0.20 Case_phi=0.25 Case_phi=0.30 Case_phi=0.35
-145.70510995 -145.18457110 -144.62438941 -144.01888469 -143.36109845
-143.13471049 -141.66146051 -140.09074015 -138.40916144 -136.60037943
-140.74829442 -138.38741920 -135.87337503 -133.18525276 -130.29753341
-138.43474566 -135.21194680 -131.78109773 -128.11383685 -124.17557670
-136.15372105 -132.08056685 -127.74489951 -123.11095454 -118.13511961
-133.88969480 -128.97225368 -123.73806905 -118.14399701 -112.13742786
-131.63558722 -125.87739785 -119.74836807 -113.19798732 -106.16466322
-129.38773775 -122.79102252 -115.76944706 -108.26514054 -100.20753512
-127.14407064 -119.71030193 -111.79769609 -103.34102445 -94.26074617
-124.90332342 -116.63351580 -107.83091522 -98.42293502 -88.32106076
-122.66468505 -113.55955815 -103.86768893 -93.50913089 -82.38639327
-120.42761117 -110.48768615 -99.90706586 -88.59844086 -76.45533986
-118.19172300 -107.41738270 -95.94838337 -83.69004867 -70.52692156
-115.95674901 -104.34827688 -91.99116596 -78.78336829 -64.60043513
-113.72248952 -101.28009590 -88.03506370 -73.87796832 -58.67536263
-111.48879451 -98.21263466 -84.07981351 -68.97352425 -52.75131433
-109.25554910 -95.14573614 -80.12521383 -64.06978741 -46.82799146
-107.02266391 -92.07928161 -76.17110774 -59.16656412 -40.90516125
-104.79006836 -89.01316768 -72.21737129 -54.26370138 -34.98263977
-102.55770604 -85.94732049 -68.26390533 -49.36107676 -29.06027982
-100.32553130 -82.88167759 -64.31062966 -44.45859122 -23.13796227
-98.09350688 -79.81618799 -60.35747874 -39.55616379 -17.21558973
-95.86160206 -76.75080962 -56.40439854 -34.65372773 -11.29308188
-93.62979129 -73.68550753 -52.45134414 -29.75122753 -5.37037193
-91.39805322 -70.62025247 -48.49827793 -24.84861671 0.55259607
-89.16636982 -67.55501976 -44.54516819 -19.94585608 6.47586929
-86.93472584 -64.48978850 -40.59198806 -15.04291240 12.39948774
-84.70310824 -61.42454086 -36.63871460 -10.13975735 18.32348554
-82.47150588 -58.35926157 -32.68532818 -5.23636664 24.24789194
-80.23990916 -55.29393749 -28.73181190 -0.33271938 30.17273210
-78.00830981 -52.22855726 -24.77815115 4.57120251 36.09802778
-75.77670063 -49.16311104 -20.82433329 9.47541466 42.02379784
-73.54507537 -46.09759027 -16.87034729 14.37993072 47.95005870
-71.31342859 -43.03198748 -12.91618355 19.28476255 53.87682468
-69.08175552 -39.96629615 -8.96183367 24.18992055 59.80410829
-66.85005198 -36.90051055 -5.00729030 29.09541382 65.73192053
-64.61831432 -33.83462567 -1.05254696 34.00125037 71.66027101
-62.38653931 -30.76863709 2.90240201 38.90743721 77.58916822
-60.15472412 -27.70254093 6.85756161 43.81398054 83.51861962
-57.92286625 -24.63633377 10.81293625 48.72088579 89.44863177
-55.69096351 -21.57001259 14.76852980 53.62815777 95.37921047
-53.45901396 -18.50357476 18.72434567 58.53580071 101.31036081
-51.22701589 -15.43701792 22.68038687 63.44381831 107.24208727
-48.99496781 -12.37034003 26.63665604 68.35221387 113.17439383
-46.76286841 -9.30353928 30.59315550 73.26099025 119.10728393
-44.53071652 -6.23661410 34.54988730 78.17014997 125.04076063
-42.29851115 -3.16956310 38.50685319 83.07969524 130.97482658
-40.06625141 -0.10238508 42.46405474 87.98962797 136.90948411
-37.83393655 2.96492100 46.42149328 92.89994982 142.84473521
-35.60156590 6.03235603 50.37916996 97.81066222 148.78058162
-33.36913893 9.09992079 54.33708578 102.72176639 154.71702481
-31.13665513 12.16761591 58.29524156 107.63326338 160.65406605
-28.90411413 15.23544195 62.25363801 112.54515404 166.59170637
-26.67151560 18.30339934 66.21227569 117.45743908 172.52994664
-24.43885927 21.37148845 70.17115507 122.37011908 178.46878754
-22.20614495 24.43970954 74.13027649 127.28319447 184.40822962
-19.97337250 27.50806282 78.08964023 132.19666558 190.34827327
-17.74054179 30.57654843 82.04924645 137.11053263 196.28891875
-15.50765279 33.64516643 86.00909525 142.02479574 202.23016622
-13.27470548 36.71391686 89.96918665 146.93945492 208.17201571
-11.04169988 39.78279967 93.92952061 151.85451014 214.11446717
-8.80863606 42.85181478 97.89009702 156.76996127 220.05752043
-6.57551409 45.92096207 101.85091572 161.68580809 226.00117528
-4.34233411 48.99024137 105.81197650 166.60205036 231.94543138
-2.10909625 52.05965248 109.77327910 171.51868774 237.89028836
0.12419930 55.12919516 113.73482320 176.43571987 243.83574576
2.35755235 58.19886914 117.69660847 181.35314630 249.78180308
4.59096270 61.26867413 121.65863451 186.27096657 255.72845973
6.82443009 64.33860979 125.62090092 191.18918015 261.67571509
9.05795428 67.40867579 129.58340722 196.10778648 267.62356849
11.29153499 70.47887173 133.54615294 201.02678496 273.57201921
13.52517195 73.54919722 137.50913757 205.94617497 279.52106649
15.75886482 76.61965185 141.47236056 210.86595582 285.47070953
17.99261331 79.69023518 145.43582135 215.78612682 291.42094748
20.22641708 82.76094675 149.39951936 220.70668725 297.37177947
22.46027579 85.83178609 153.36345398 225.62763635 303.32320459
24.69418909 88.90275271 157.32762457 230.54897334 309.27522191
26.92815661 91.97384611 161.29203048 235.47069742 315.22783045
29.16217797 95.04506578 165.25667106 240.39280776 321.18102923
31.39625280 98.11641118 169.22154562 245.31530352 327.13481724
33.63038069 101.18788178 173.18665345 250.23818383 333.08919341
35.86456125 104.25947702 177.15199386 255.16144781 339.04415670
38.09879407 107.33119633 181.11756610 260.08509455 344.99970601
40.33307873 110.40303916 185.08336944 265.00912315 350.95584025
42.56741481 113.47500490 189.04940313 269.93353266 356.91255828
44.80180187 116.54709297 193.01566640 274.85832214 362.86985897
47.03623950 119.61930278 196.98215848 279.78349063 368.82774115
49.27072722 122.69163370 200.94887858 284.70903716 374.78620366
51.50526462 125.76408513 204.91582591 289.63496073 380.74524531
53.73985123 128.83665645 208.88299966 294.56126036 386.70486489
55.97448659 131.90934701 212.85039902 299.48793503 392.66506119
58.20917023 134.98215620 216.81802317 304.41498372 398.62583298
60.44390171 138.05508335 220.78587127 309.34240541 404.58717901
62.67868054 141.12812784 224.75394250 314.27019906 410.54909804
64.91350626 144.20128900 228.72223600 319.19836362 416.51158881
67.14837837 147.27456617 232.69075093 324.12689803 422.47465004
69.38329641 150.34795869 236.65948643 329.05580123 428.43828044
71.61825988 153.42146590 240.62844164 333.98507216 434.40247873
73.85326831 156.49508712 244.59761568 338.91470972 440.36724361
76.08832120 159.56882168 248.56700768 343.84471285 446.33257376
78.32341804 162.64266888 252.53661677 348.77508044 452.29846786
80.55855835 165.71662806 256.50644205 353.70581140 458.26492460
82.79374162 168.79069851 260.47648265 358.63690462 464.23194264
85.02896737 171.86487956 264.44673766 363.56835899 470.19952064
87.26423508 174.93917050 268.41720618 368.50017340 476.16765725
89.49954424 178.01357063 272.38788732 373.43234674 482.13635112
91.73489434 181.08807926 276.35878016 378.36487786 488.10560090
93.97028489 184.16269568 280.32988381 383.29776564 494.07540520
96.20571536 187.23741919 284.30119733 388.23100895 500.04576267
98.44118523 190.31224907 288.27271982 393.16460665 506.01667194
100.67669399 193.38718461 292.24445035 398.09855759 511.98813160
102.91224113 196.46222509 296.21638801 403.03286063 517.96014029
105.14782611 199.53736981 300.18853186 407.96751462 523.93269661
107.38344844 202.61261804 304.16088097 412.90251839 529.90579916
109.61910757 205.68796907 308.13343441 417.83787079 535.87944655
111.85480299 208.76342216 312.10619125 422.77357067 541.85363736
114.09053415 211.83897659 316.07915055 427.70961684 547.82837019
116.32630056 214.91463163 320.05231136 432.64600815 553.80364363
118.56210167 217.99038657 324.02567275 437.58274342 559.77945626
120.79793695 221.06624066 327.99923376 442.51982148 565.75580666
123.03380590 224.14219317 331.97299346 447.45724115 571.73269340
125.26970793 227.21824338 335.94695088 452.39500124 577.71011507
127.50564254 230.29439053 339.92110509 457.33310059 583.68807022
129.74160920 233.37063391 343.89545512 462.27153799 589.66655742
131.97760736 236.44697277 347.87000003 467.21031226 595.64557524
134.21363651 239.52340636 351.84473884 472.14942222 601.62512224
136.44969608 242.59993396 355.81967061 477.08886666 607.60519697
138.68578555 245.67655481 359.79479437 482.02864440 613.58579799
140.92190439 248.75326817 363.77010916 486.96875424 619.56692385
143.15805204 251.83007330 367.74561402 491.90919497 625.54857310
145.39422799 254.90696946 371.72130798 496.84996539 631.53074428
147.63043165 257.98395589 375.69719006 501.79106431 637.51343594
149.86666253 261.06103184 379.67325932 506.73249052 643.49664661
152.10292005 264.13819658 383.64951476 511.67424280 649.48037485
154.33920367 267.21544934 387.62595543 516.61631996 655.46461918
156.57551288 270.29278938 391.60258034 521.55872077 661.44937814
158.81184710 273.37021594 395.57938854 526.50144404 667.43465026
161.04820580 276.44772828 399.55637902 531.44448853 673.42043407
163.28458842 279.52532564 403.53355084 536.38785305 679.40672810
165.52099444 282.60300725 407.51090299 541.33153637 685.39353088
167.75742330 285.68077238 411.48843452 546.27553727 691.38084092
169.99387443 288.75862026 415.46614442 551.21985453 697.36865676
172.23034731 291.83655013 419.44403174 556.16448693 703.35697691
174.46684140 294.91456124 423.42209547 561.10943325 709.34579989
176.70335611 297.99265283 427.40033465 566.05469227 715.33512422
178.93989093 301.07082414 431.37874828 571.00026275 721.32494841
181.17644529 304.14907440 435.35733538 575.94614348 727.31527097
183.41301865 307.22740287 439.33609496 580.89233321 733.30609042
185.64961045 310.30580877 443.31502604 585.83883074 739.29740528
187.88622013 313.38429135 447.29412763 590.78563481 745.28921403
190.12284717 316.46284984 451.27339874 595.73274421 751.28151520
192.35949099 319.54148348 455.25283838 600.68015769 757.27430729
194.59615105 322.62019150 459.23244557 605.62787404 763.26758881
196.83282679 325.69897315 463.21221930 610.57589200 769.26135825
199.06951768 328.77782766 467.19215859 615.52421034 775.25561411
201.30622313 331.85675426 471.17226244 620.47282784 781.25035491
203.54294259 334.93575218 475.15252987 625.42174324 787.24557912
205.77967554 338.01482067 479.13295987 630.37095531 793.24128526
208.01642138 341.09395895 483.11355146 635.32046281 799.23747182
210.25317960 344.17316625 487.09430364 640.27026451 805.23413730
212.48994962 347.25244181 491.07521540 645.22035914 811.23128018
214.72673087 350.33178486 495.05628576 650.17074548 817.22889895
216.96352285 353.41119464 499.03751372 655.12142229 823.22699212
219.20032495 356.49067036 503.01889827 660.07238830 829.22555817
221.43713662 359.57021127 507.00043843 665.02364229 835.22459558
223.67395734 362.64981659 510.98213318 669.97518301 841.22410285
225.91078651 365.72948556 514.96398154 674.92700919 847.22407846
228.14762358 368.80921740 518.94598249 679.87911961 853.22452090
230.38446802 371.88901134 522.92813505 684.83151301 859.22542865
232.62131923 374.96886660 526.91043820 689.78418814 865.22680019
234.85817673 378.04878243 530.89289095 694.73714375 871.22863401
237.09503986 381.12875804 534.87549229 699.69037859 877.23092859
239.33190465 384.20879267 538.85824122 704.64389140 883.23368240
241.56877747 387.28888553 542.84113674 709.59768094 889.23689393
243.80565430 390.36903586 546.82417784 714.55174595 895.24056165
246.04253457 393.44924289 550.80736352 719.50608518 901.24468404
248.27941773 396.52950584 554.79069276 724.46069738 907.24925958
250.51630321 399.60982393 558.77416458 729.41558128 913.25428674
252.75319047 402.69019639 562.75777795 734.37073563 919.25976399
254.99007894 405.77062245 566.74153188 739.32615918 925.26568981
257.22696805 408.85110134 570.72542536 744.28185067 931.27206268
259.46385726 411.93163227 574.70945737 749.23780883 937.27888105
261.70074600 415.01221447 578.69362692 754.19403242 943.28614341
263.93763371 418.09284717 582.67793299 759.15052017 949.29384822
266.17451983 421.17352958 586.66237457 764.10727082 955.30199396
268.41140380 424.25426094 590.64695066 769.06428312 961.31057908
270.64828506 427.33504047 594.63166025 774.02155579 967.31960205
272.88516304 430.41586738 598.61650232 778.97908759 973.32906135
275.12203720 433.49674091 602.60147587 783.93687724 979.33895543
277.35890696 436.57766027 606.58657988 788.89492348 985.34928277
279.59577176 439.65862469 610.57181335 793.85322506 991.36004182
281.83263105 442.73963339 614.55717526 798.81178071 997.37123105
284.06948427 445.82068559 618.54266460 803.77058916 1003.38284892
286.30633084 448.90178051 622.52828036 808.72964914 1009.39489389
288.54317022 451.98291738 626.51402152 813.68895940 1015.40736442
290.78000183 455.06409542 630.49988708 818.64851866 1021.42025897
293.01682512 458.14531384 634.48587602 823.60832567 1027.43357601
295.25363952 461.22657187 638.47198732 828.56837915 1033.44731398
297.49044447 464.30786874 642.45821998 833.52867783 1039.46147135
299.72723942 467.38920365 646.44457298 838.48922045 1045.47604657
Return to Figure 1

Figure 2: Long-run Neutrality of Capital Constraint: m=0.10 vs m=0.25.

Real Equilibrium1 Finance Equilibrium1 Real Equilibrium2 Finance Equilibrium2
1.0216201741 1.0075307531 1.0177729109 1.0009714184
1.0216124233 1.0075751323 1.0177636362 1.0010244130
1.0216046725 1.0076195130 1.0177543615 1.0010774097
1.0215969217 1.0076638951 1.0177450869 1.0011304085
1.0215891710 1.0077082788 1.0177358124 1.0011834095
1.0215814203 1.0077526639 1.0177265379 1.0012364125
1.0215736697 1.0077970504 1.0177172635 1.0012894176
1.0215659191 1.0078414384 1.0177079891 1.0013424249
1.0215581686 1.0078858279 1.0176987149 1.0013954342
1.0215504181 1.0079302189 1.0176894406 1.0014484456
1.0215426677 1.0079746113 1.0176801665 1.0015014592
1.0215349173 1.0080190052 1.0176708924 1.0015544748
1.0215271669 1.0080634000 1.0176616184 1.0016074926
1.0215194166 1.0081077974 1.0176523444 1.0016605124
1.0215116663 1.0081521956 1.0176430705 1.0017135344
1.0215039161 1.0081965954 1.0176337967 1.0017665585
1.0214961659 1.0082409966 1.0176245229 1.0018195847
1.0214884158 1.0082853993 1.0176152492 1.0018726129
1.0214806657 1.0083298034 1.0176059755 1.0019256433
1.0214729156 1.0083742091 1.0175967019 1.0019786758
1.0214651656 1.0084186162 1.0175874284 1.0020317104
1.0214574157 1.0084630247 1.0175781550 1.0020847471
1.0214496658 1.0085074347 1.0175688816 1.0021377859
1.0214419159 1.0085518462 1.0175596082 1.0021908268
1.0214341661 1.0085962592 1.0175503350 1.0022438699
1.0214264163 1.0086406736 1.0175410618 1.0022969150
1.0214186665 1.0086850895 1.0175317886 1.0023499622
1.0214109168 1.0087295068 1.0175225156 1.0024030115
1.0214031672 1.0087739256 1.0175132425 1.0024560630
1.0213954176 1.0088183459 1.0175039696 1.0025091165
1.0213876680 1.0088627677 1.0174946967 1.0025621722
1.0213799185 1.0089071909 1.0174854239 1.0026152299
1.0213721690 1.0089516156 1.0174761511 1.0026682898
1.0213644196 1.0089960418 1.0174668784 1.0027213518
1.0213566702 1.0090404694 1.0174576058 1.0027744159
1.0213489208 1.0090848985 1.0174483332 1.0028274820
1.0213411715 1.0091293290 1.0174390607 1.0028805503
1.0213334223 1.0091737610 1.0174297883 1.0029336207
1.0213256731 1.0092181945 1.0174205159 1.0029866932
1.0213179239 1.0092626295 1.0174112436 1.0030397678
1.0213101748 1.0093070659 1.0174019713 1.0030928445
1.0213024257 1.0093515038 1.0173926991 1.0031459234
1.0212946767 1.0093959432 1.0173834270 1.0031990043
1.0212869277 1.0094403840 1.0173741549 1.0032520873
1.0212791787 1.0094848263 1.0173648829 1.0033051725
1.0212714298 1.0095292701 1.0173556110 1.0033582597
1.0212636810 1.0095737153 1.0173463391 1.0034113491
1.0212559321 1.0096181620 1.0173370673 1.0034644405
1.0212481834 1.0096626102 1.0173277956 1.0035175341
1.0212404347 1.0097070598 1.0173185239 1.0035706298
1.0212326860 1.0097515109 1.0173092523 1.0036237275
1.0212249373 1.0097959635 1.0172999807 1.0036768274
1.0212171887 1.0098404175 1.0172907092 1.0037299294
1.0212094402 1.0098848730 1.0172814378 1.0037830335
1.0212016917 1.0099293300 1.0172721664 1.0038361397
1.0211939432 1.0099737884 1.0172628951 1.0038892480
1.0211861948 1.0100182483 1.0172536239 1.0039423585
1.0211784464 1.0100627097 1.0172443527 1.0039954710
1.0211706981 1.0101071725 1.0172350816 1.0040485856
1.0211629498 1.0101516368 1.0172258106 1.0041017024
1.0211552016 1.0101961026 1.0172165396 1.0041548212
1.0211474534 1.0102405699 1.0172072687 1.0042079422
1.0211397052 1.0102850386 1.0171979978 1.0042610653
1.0211319571 1.0103295088 1.0171887270 1.0043141904
1.0211242090 1.0103739804 1.0171794563 1.0043673177
1.0211164610 1.0104184535 1.0171701856 1.0044204471
1.0211087130 1.0104629281 1.0171609150 1.0044735786
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1.0187476368 1.0240963428 1.0143363362 1.0207773133
1.0187399023 1.0241412682 1.0143270850 1.0208310924
1.0187321678 1.0241861950 1.0143178338 1.0208848736
1.0187244334 1.0242311233 1.0143085827 1.0209386570
1.0187166991 1.0242760531 1.0142993317 1.0209924425
1.0187089648 1.0243209844 1.0142900807 1.0210462301
1.0187012305 1.0243659171 1.0142808298 1.0211000198
1.0186934963 1.0244108514 1.0142715789 1.0211538117
1.0186857621 1.0244557871 1.0142623281 1.0212076056
1.0186780279 1.0245007242 1.0142530774 1.0212614017
1.0186702938 1.0245456629 1.0142438268 1.0213152000
1.0186625598 1.0245906031 1.0142345762 1.0213690003
1.0186548258 1.0246355447 1.0142253256 1.0214228028
1.0186470918 1.0246804878 1.0142160752 1.0214766074
1.0186393579 1.0247254323 1.0142068248 1.0215304142
1.0186316240 1.0247703784 1.0141975744 1.0215842230
1.0186238902 1.0248153259 1.0141883241 1.0216380340
1.0186161564 1.0248602750 1.0141790739 1.0216918471
1.0186084226 1.0249052254 1.0141698238 1.0217456624
1.0186006889 1.0249501774 1.0141605737 1.0217994797
1.0185929553 1.0249951309 1.0141513237 1.0218532992
1.0185852217 1.0250400858 1.0141420737 1.0219071208
1.0185774881 1.0250850422 1.0141328238 1.0219609446
1.0185697546 1.0251300001 1.0141235740 1.0220147704
1.0185620211 1.0251749594 1.0141143242 1.0220685984
1.0185542877 1.0252199203 1.0141050745 1.0221224293
1.0185465543 1.0252648826 1.0140958248 1.0221762615
1.0185388209 1.0253098464 1.0140865753 1.0222300959
1.0185310876 1.0253548117 1.0140773257 1.0222839324
1.0185233544 1.0253997785 1.0140680763 1.0223377710
1.0185156212 1.0254447467 1.0140588269 1.0223916118
1.0185078880 1.0254897164 1.0140495776 1.0224454547
1.0185001549 1.0255346876 1.0140403283 1.0224992997
1.0184924218 1.0255796603 1.0140310791 1.0225531468
1.0184846887 1.0256246344 1.0140218300 1.0226069961
1.0184769557 1.0256696101 1.0140125809 1.0226608475
1.0184692228 1.0257145872 1.0140033319 1.0227147010
1.0184614899 1.0257595658 1.0139940829 1.0227685567
1.0184537570 1.0258045458 1.0139848340 1.0228224145
1.0184460242 1.0258495274 1.0139755852 1.0228762744
1.0184382914 1.0258945104 1.0139663364 1.0229301364
1.0184305587 1.0259394949 1.0139570878 1.0229840005
1.0184228260 1.0259844809 1.0139478391 1.0230378668
1.0184150934 1.0260294684 1.0139385906 1.0230917352
1.0184073608 1.0260744573 1.0139293420 1.0231456058
1.0183996282 1.0261194478 1.0139200936 1.0231994785
1.0183918957 1.0261644397 1.0139108452 1.0232533532
1.0183841632 1.0262094330 1.0139015969 1.0233072302
1.0183764308 1.0262544279 1.0138923486 1.0233611092
1.0183686984 1.0262994243 1.0138831005 1.0234149904
1.0183609661 1.0263444221 1.0138738523 1.0234688737
1.0183532338 1.0263894214 1.0138646043 1.0235227591
1.0183455016 1.0264344222 1.0138553563 1.0235766467
1.0183377694 1.0264794244 1.0138461083 1.0236305364
1.0183300372 1.0265244282 1.0138368605 1.0236844282
1.0183223051 1.0265694334 1.0138276126 1.0237383221
1.0183145730 1.0266144401 1.0138183649 1.0237922182
1.0183068410 1.0266594483 1.0138091172 1.0238461164
1.0182991090 1.0267044579 1.0137998696 1.0239000167
1.0182913771 1.0267494691 1.0137906220 1.0239539192
1.0182836452 1.0267944817 1.0137813745 1.0240078238
1.0182759133 1.0268394958 1.0137721271 1.0240617305
1.0182681815 1.0268845114 1.0137628797 1.0241156393
1.0182604497 1.0269295285 1.0137536324 1.0241695503
1.0182527180 1.0269745470 1.0137443852 1.0242234634
1.0182449864 1.0270195670 1.0137351380 1.0242773786
1.0182372547 1.0270645885 1.0137258909 1.0243312960
1.0182295231 1.0271096115 1.0137166439 1.0243852155
1.0182217916 1.0271546360 1.0137073969 1.0244391371
1.0182140601 1.0271996619 1.0136981499 1.0244930608
1.0182063286 1.0272446893 1.0136889031 1.0245469867
1.0181985972 1.0272897182 1.0136796563 1.0246009147
1.0181908659 1.0273347486 1.0136704095 1.0246548448
1.0181831345 1.0273797805 1.0136611629 1.0247087771
1.0181754033 1.0274248138 1.0136519163 1.0247627115
1.0181676720 1.0274698487 1.0136426697 1.0248166480
1.0181599408 1.0275148850 1.0136334232 1.0248705866
1.0181522097 1.0275599228 1.0136241768 1.0249245274
1.0181444786 1.0276049620 1.0136149305 1.0249784703
1.0181367475 1.0276500028 1.0136056842 1.0250324153
1.0181290165 1.0276950450 1.0135964379 1.0250863625
1.0181212855 1.0277400887 1.0135871918 1.0251403118
1.0181135546 1.0277851339 1.0135779457 1.0251942632
1.0181058237 1.0278301806 1.0135686996 1.0252482167
1.0180980929 1.0278752287 1.0135594537 1.0253021724
1.0180903621 1.0279202784 1.0135502077 1.0253561302
1.0180826314 1.0279653295 1.0135409619 1.0254100902
1.0180749007 1.0280103821 1.0135317161 1.0254640522
1.0180671700 1.0280554361 1.0135224704 1.0255180164
1.0180594394 1.0281004917 1.0135132247 1.0255719827
1.0180517088 1.0281455487 1.0135039791 1.0256259512
1.0180439783 1.0281906072 1.0134947336 1.0256799218
1.0180362478 1.0282356672 1.0134854881 1.0257338945
1.0180285173 1.0282807287 1.0134762427 1.0257878694
1.0180207869 1.0283257917 1.0134669974 1.0258418463
1.0180130566 1.0283708561 1.0134577521 1.0258958254
1.0180053263 1.0284159220 1.0134485069 1.0259498067
1.0179975960 1.0284609894 1.0134392617 1.0260037900
1.0179898658 1.0285060583 1.0134300166 1.0260577755
1.0179821356 1.0285511287 1.0134207716 1.0261117632
1.0179744055 1.0285962005 1.0134115266 1.0261657529
1.0179666754 1.0286412739 1.0134022817 1.0262197448
1.0179589453 1.0286863487 1.0133930369 1.0262737388
1.0179512153 1.0287314250 1.0133837921 1.0263277350
1.0179434854 1.0287765028 1.0133745474 1.0263817333
1.0179357555 1.0288215820 1.0133653028 1.0264357337
1.0179280256 1.0288666627 1.0133560582 1.0264897362
1.0179202958 1.0289117450 1.0133468137 1.0265437409
1.0179125660 1.0289568287 1.0133375692 1.0265977477
1.0179048363 1.0290019138 1.0133283248 1.0266517566
1.0178971066 1.0290470005 1.0133190805 1.0267057677
1.0178893769 1.0290920886 1.0133098362 1.0267597809
1.0178816473 1.0291371783 1.0133005920 1.0268137962
1.0178739178 1.0291822694 1.0132913479 1.0268678137
1.0178661882 1.0292273620 1.0132821038 1.0269218333
1.0178584588 1.0292724560 1.0132728598 1.0269758550
1.0178507293 1.0293175516 1.0132636158 1.0270298789
1.0178430000 1.0293626486 1.0132543719 1.0270839049
1.0178352706 1.0294077471 1.0132451281 1.0271379330
1.0178275413 1.0294528471 1.0132358843 1.0271919632
1.0178198121 1.0294979486 1.0132266406 1.0272459956
1.0178120829 1.0295430516 1.0132173970 1.0273000301
1.0178043537 1.0295881560 1.0132081534 1.0273540668
1.0177966246 1.0296332619 1.0131989099 1.0274081055
1.0177888955 1.0296783694 1.0131896665 1.0274621464
1.0177811665 1.0297234782 1.0131804231 1.0275161895
1.0177734375 1.0297685886 1.0131711798 1.0275702346
1.0177657085 1.0298137005 1.0131619365 1.0276242819
1.0177579796 1.0298588138 1.0131526933 1.0276783314
1.0177502508 1.0299039286 1.0131434502 1.0277323830
1.0177425220 1.0299490449 1.0131342071 1.0277864366
1.0177347932 1.0299941627 1.0131249641 1.0278404925
1.0177270645 1.0300392820 1.0131157212 1.0278945504
1.0177193358 1.0300844027 1.0131064783 1.0279486105
1.0177116071 1.0301295249 1.0130972355 1.0280026728
1.0177038785 1.0301746487 1.0130879928 1.0280567371
1.0176961500 1.0302197739 1.0130787501 1.0281108036
1.0176884215 1.0302649005 1.0130695074 1.0281648722
1.0176806930 1.0303100287 1.0130602649 1.0282189430
1.0176729646 1.0303551583 1.0130510224 1.0282730159
1.0176652362 1.0304002895 1.0130417799 1.0283270909
1.0176575079 1.0304454221 1.0130325376 1.0283811681
1.0176497796 1.0304905562 1.0130232953 1.0284352474
1.0176420514 1.0305356917 1.0130140530 1.0284893288
1.0176343232 1.0305808288 1.0130048108 1.0285434123
1.0176265950 1.0306259673 1.0129955687 1.0285974980
1.0176188669 1.0306711073 1.0129863267 1.0286515859
1.0176111389 1.0307162488 1.0129770847 1.0287056758
1.0176034108 1.0307613918 1.0129678428 1.0287597679
1.0175956829 1.0308065363 1.0129586009 1.0288138621
1.0175879549 1.0308516823 1.0129493591 1.0288679585
1.0175802271 1.0308968297 1.0129401173 1.0289220570
1.0175724992 1.0309419786 1.0129308757 1.0289761576
1.0175647714 1.0309871290 1.0129216341 1.0290302603
1.0175570436 1.0310322809 1.0129123925 1.0290843652
1.0175493159 1.0310774343 1.0129031510 1.0291384722
1.0175415883 1.0311225891 1.0128939096 1.0291925814
1.0175338606 1.0311677454 1.0128846682 1.0292466927
1.0175261331 1.0312129033 1.0128754269 1.0293008061
1.0175184055 1.0312580626 1.0128661857 1.0293549217
1.0175106780 1.0313032233 1.0128569445 1.0294090393
1.0175029506 1.0313483856 1.0128477034 1.0294631592
1.0174952232 1.0313935494 1.0128384624 1.0295172811
1.0174874958 1.0314387146 1.0128292214 1.0295714052
1.0174797685 1.0314838813 1.0128199805 1.0296255314
1.0174720412 1.0315290495 1.0128107397 1.0296796598
1.0174643140 1.0315742192 1.0128014989 1.0297337903
1.0174565868 1.0316193904 1.0127922581 1.0297879229
1.0174488597 1.0316645630 1.0127830175 1.0298420577
1.0174411326 1.0317097371 1.0127737769 1.0298961946
1.0174334055 1.0317549128 1.0127645363 1.0299503336
1.0174256785 1.0318000899 1.0127552959 1.0300044748
1.0174179516 1.0318452684 1.0127460554 1.0300586181
1.0174102246 1.0318904485 1.0127368151 1.0301127635
1.0174024978 1.0319356301 1.0127275748 1.0301669111
1.0173947709 1.0319808131 1.0127183346 1.0302210608
1.0173870441 1.0320259976 1.0127090944 1.0302752126
1.0173793174 1.0320711836 1.0126998543 1.0303293666
1.0173715907 1.0321163711 1.0126906143 1.0303835227
1.0173638640 1.0321615601 1.0126813743 1.0304376809
1.0173561374 1.0322067505 1.0126721344 1.0304918413
1.0173484109 1.0322519425 1.0126628946 1.0305460038
1.0173406843 1.0322971359 1.0126536548 1.0306001685
1.0173329579 1.0323423308 1.0126444151 1.0306543353
1.0173252314 1.0323875272 1.0126351755 1.0307085042
1.0173175050 1.0324327251 1.0126259359 1.0307626752
1.0173097787 1.0324779244 1.0126166963 1.0308168484
1.0173020524 1.0325231253 1.0126074569 1.0308710238
1.0172943261 1.0325683276 1.0125982175 1.0309252012
1.0172865999 1.0326135314 1.0125889781 1.0309793808
1.0172788737 1.0326587367 1.0125797389 1.0310335625
1.0172711476 1.0327039435 1.0125704997 1.0310877464
1.0172634215 1.0327491517 1.0125612605 1.0311419324
1.0172556955 1.0327943615 1.0125520214 1.0311961205
1.0172479695 1.0328395727 1.0125427824 1.0312503108
1.0172402435 1.0328847854 1.0125335435 1.0313045032
1.0172325176 1.0329299996 1.0125243046 1.0313586978
1.0172247918 1.0329752153 1.0125150657 1.0314128945
1.0172170659 1.0330204325 1.0125058270 1.0314670933
1.0172093402 1.0330656511 1.0124965883 1.0315212942
1.0172016144 1.0331108713 1.0124873496 1.0315754973
1.0171938887 1.0331560929 1.0124781111 1.0316297025
1.0171861631 1.0332013160 1.0124688725 1.0316839099
1.0171784375 1.0332465406 1.0124596341 1.0317381194
1.0171707119 1.0332917667 1.0124503957 1.0317923310
1.0171629864 1.0333369942 1.0124411574 1.0318465448
1.0171552610 1.0333822233 1.0124319191 1.0319007607
1.0171475355 1.0334274538 1.0124226809 1.0319549787
1.0171398102 1.0334726858 1.0124134428 1.0320091989
1.0171320848 1.0335179193 1.0124042047 1.0320634212
1.0171243595 1.0335631543 1.0123949667 1.0321176457
1.0171166343 1.0336083908 1.0123857288 1.0321718723
1.0171089091 1.0336536287 1.0123764909 1.0322261010
1.0171011839 1.0336988682 1.0123672531 1.0322803319
1.0170934588 1.0337441091 1.0123580153 1.0323345649
1.0170857337 1.0337893515 1.0123487776 1.0323888000
1.0170780087 1.0338345954 1.0123395400 1.0324430373
1.0170702837 1.0338798408 1.0123303024 1.0324972767
1.0170625588 1.0339250876 1.0123210649 1.0325515182
1.0170548339 1.0339703360 1.0123118275 1.0326057619
1.0170471090 1.0340155858 1.0123025901 1.0326600077
1.0170393842 1.0340608371 1.0122933528 1.0327142557
1.0170316595 1.0341060899 1.0122841155 1.0327685058
1.0170239347 1.0341513442 1.0122748784 1.0328227580
1.0170162101 1.0341966000 1.0122656412 1.0328770124
1.0170084854 1.0342418573 1.0122564042 1.0329312689
1.0170007609 1.0342871160 1.0122471672 1.0329855276
1.0169930363 1.0343323762 1.0122379302 1.0330397883
1.0169853118 1.0343776380 1.0122286934 1.0330940513
1.0169775874 1.0344229012 1.0122194566 1.0331483163
1.0169698629 1.0344681659 1.0122102198 1.0332025835
Return to Figure 2

Figure 3: Impact of Intermediation Shock in Model and Data

Uncertainty_Model Spreads_Model Lending_Model Hours_Model Investment_Model Output_Model Uncertainty_lower_confidence Uncertainty_BVAR Uncertainty_upper_confidence Spreads_lower_confidence Spreads_BVAR Spreads_upper_confidence Lending_lower_confidence Lending_BVAR Lending_upper_confidence Hours_lower_confidence Hours_BVAR Hours_upper_confidence Investment_lower_confidence Investment_BVAR Investment_upper_confidence Output_lower_confidence Output_BVAR Output_upper_confidence
10.0000000 27.7011950 -0.5834748 -0.2369440 -0.7296276 -0.1777080 4.3243736 10.0000000 15.6656001 6.3616500 15.7844666 25.7685325 -1.7427120 -0.8535555 -0.2540328 0.0565654 -0.0356430 -0.1209078 -0.9188593 -0.2961060 0.3980019 -0.3508920 -0.1101965 0.1377545
8.5000000 21.9259674 -0.1030926 -0.3678361 -1.1639565 -0.2804373 2.7126778 6.3994683 10.4018494 12.2295537 22.0234232 33.3072673 -1.3295625 -0.8436501 -0.4181967 0.0023993 -0.1123511 -0.2167603 -1.7098176 -0.9553430 -0.0824135 -0.5271415 -0.3032489 -0.0479763
7.2250000 6.6590877 0.0352676 -0.4080586 -1.3331685 -0.3177649 3.4264357 6.9303014 10.7799281 11.1070293 19.4203595 28.9479610 -1.4747608 -1.0698258 -0.6761568 -0.0546957 -0.1880413 -0.3053268 -2.2211782 -1.3447539 -0.3511002 -0.6076455 -0.3640193 -0.0914333
6.1412500 0.9945855 0.0235846 -0.3942600 -1.3346732 -0.3154552 2.2385047 5.3648918 8.5344143 6.9046038 14.3307984 21.5071912 -1.6375934 -1.1507852 -0.6645526 -0.1085535 -0.2466355 -0.3812557 -2.5441136 -1.5837230 -0.5270760 -0.6591849 -0.4032551 -0.1309100
5.2200625 -0.5381903 -0.0158896 -0.3558033 -1.2509062 -0.2944603 0.7562596 3.9057814 7.0453416 2.5066049 9.1029759 15.7091629 -1.4998396 -1.0063730 -0.5386488 -0.1265583 -0.2710547 -0.4212171 -2.7416220 -1.6261461 -0.5196855 -0.6869911 -0.3966396 -0.1156030
4.4370531 -0.5957352 -0.0450064 -0.3103044 -1.1340015 -0.2674642 -0.4131686 2.4734839 5.5609128 -1.1568686 5.3883710 12.1407679 -1.2681621 -0.7921530 -0.3170767 -0.1282626 -0.2710321 -0.4309830 -2.7079527 -1.6083814 -0.4637000 -0.6616536 -0.3656779 -0.0881837
3.7714952 -0.2955799 -0.0583125 -0.2664299 -1.0117059 -0.2407774 -1.4568213 1.4479013 4.4217586 -3.2389261 2.9372452 9.5758748 -1.0317989 -0.5817367 -0.0659672 -0.1090070 -0.2594691 -0.4219924 -2.7048165 -1.5118714 -0.3064908 -0.6469833 -0.3336311 -0.0468797
3.2057709 -0.0218653 -0.0600240 -0.2275338 -0.8965949 -0.2169046 -2.0280474 0.7105156 3.4938733 -4.2870488 1.2519827 7.6435854 -0.8448200 -0.3848727 0.0983310 -0.0943680 -0.2415781 -0.4012387 -2.6374060 -1.4577051 -0.2044635 -0.6237628 -0.3109839 -0.0171860
2.7249053 0.1427901 -0.0553151 -0.1943126 -0.7931592 -0.1964360 -2.3317699 0.2486065 2.8673715 -5.0358005 0.5949569 6.2941288 -0.7057794 -0.2466432 0.2133024 -0.0735296 -0.2162225 -0.3818021 -2.5558395 -1.3357435 -0.1080935 -0.5991959 -0.2853498 0.0024399
2.3161695 0.2153310 -0.0478914 -0.1663542 -0.7021163 -0.1791570 -2.6164293 -0.0532627 2.5389490 -5.1078326 0.0817449 5.4858567 -0.6181124 -0.1666782 0.2870872 -0.0518922 -0.1960335 -0.3581745 -2.4629880 -1.2376978 -0.0488947 -0.5863697 -0.2766673 0.0100204
1.9687440 0.2311919 -0.0398722 -0.1429115 -0.6226781 -0.1646034 -2.6497390 -0.2267244 2.3072110 -5.4836181 -0.2083142 4.8755507 -0.5374859 -0.1261336 0.2954688 -0.0342459 -0.1766975 -0.3352480 -2.3997689 -1.1418482 0.0115151 -0.5777799 -0.2600302 0.0168837
1.6734324 0.2186844 -0.0322738 -0.1232306 -0.5536031 -0.1522989 -2.6028726 -0.2582804 2.1791881 -5.4082560 -0.3286226 4.4069283 -0.4651146 -0.0926723 0.3023016 -0.0229212 -0.1572727 -0.3216296 -2.3228509 -1.0819292 0.0700062 -0.5613058 -0.2589507 0.0126643
1.4224176 0.1950964 -0.0254831 -0.1066596 -0.4936211 -0.1418338 -2.4628111 -0.2044776 2.1761478 -5.5483494 -0.4511407 3.8913291 -0.4239010 -0.0690149 0.2976294 -0.0120937 -0.1392908 -0.3051354 -2.2478008 -1.0151715 0.0943065 -0.5559112 -0.2446854 0.0120157
1.2090549 0.1693141 -0.0195775 -0.0926654 -0.4415723 -0.1328773 -2.2361928 -0.2217378 2.0468942 -5.5188531 -0.6528047 3.3910152 -0.3998992 -0.0653562 0.2998673 0.0013207 -0.1241658 -0.2850064 -2.1772744 -0.9483877 0.1795832 -0.5496538 -0.2279117 0.0196210
1.0276967 0.1451808 -0.0145050 -0.0808173 -0.3964338 -0.1251666 -2.1107206 -0.2209810 1.9620745 -5.4454773 -0.8507475 2.9615187 -0.3882378 -0.0517826 0.2833281 0.0139060 -0.1111569 -0.2689308 -2.0924924 -0.8697380 0.1962455 -0.5374327 -0.2188498 0.0263146
0.8735422 0.1239521 -0.0101716 -0.0707665 -0.3573097 -0.1184924 -1.9549287 -0.1492854 1.8883580 -5.3854988 -0.8900976 2.6564538 -0.3658839 -0.0386196 0.2832753 0.0232309 -0.1002837 -0.2596705 -2.0118323 -0.8133349 0.2500539 -0.5229280 -0.2034141 0.0320559
Return to Figure 3

Figure 4: Efficacy of Policy Intervention: Asset Purchase (blue solid) vs Capital Injection (black dash-dot).

Government_Asset_CI Tax/GDP_CI Asset_Prices_CI Shadow_value_of_internal_funds_CI Investment_CI Output_CI Lending_CI Dividends_Payouts_CI Equity_Issuance_CI Government_Asset_AP Tax/GDP_AP Asset_Prices_AP Shadow_value_of_internal_funds_AP Investment_AP Output_AP Lending_AP Dividends_Payouts_AP Equity_Issuance_AP
1.9485729345 1.9485729345 0.1114803602 -1.2428049300 0.8150311492 0.1968848886 0.1318788539 2.2644034305 -3.8980578847 1.9182710317 1.9182710317 0.0912306243 -0.3248357287 0.2333250965 0.0595491004 -0.0831056511 2.2901326856 -2.5289537282
2.6232017595 0.5536827072 0.1257897243 -1.4217570456 1.3565505731 0.3248496857 0.1796375228 1.2913967272 -3.1951228587 2.5887451802 0.6472743666 0.0601278034 0.0731105689 0.2798918858 0.0708876800 -0.1703569259 -0.6057627165 0.4761568925
2.7430168488 -0.0497109103 0.0966345629 -1.2382547446 1.6178969519 0.3840293056 0.1896073887 -0.3442902220 -1.3268601859 2.6793551512 0.0587468651 0.0199775020 0.1545586237 0.2123123877 0.0534780866 -0.2139884002 -1.2433364883 1.0434106675
2.5906256829 -0.3337886138 0.0621950492 -1.0794918426 1.6770267485 0.3953048971 0.1947641100 -0.9170213438 -0.5058751060 2.5172106747 -0.1958079510 -0.0029006734 0.1130686521 0.1140054813 0.0289195407 -0.2191758148 -0.9922137360 0.6797790741
2.3311356106 -0.4328990247 0.0354458114 -0.9445771602 1.6163961387 0.3797315893 0.2050903196 -0.9759230999 -0.2075405087 2.2597503096 -0.2893708423 -0.0109219093 0.0599812155 0.0294836050 0.0083700493 -0.2027453835 -0.6278621419 0.2585532104
2.0453898177 -0.4427725935 0.0180787203 -0.8262722345 1.4968448785 0.3522322550 0.2208812874 -0.8341040205 -0.1195268944 1.9809514944 -0.3074633830 -0.0110773514 0.0237166100 -0.0278222680 -0.0050857285 -0.1779062759 -0.3609450020 -0.0110831902
1.7701990977 -0.4134600468 0.0080081804 -0.7199699355 1.3559629231 0.3215570309 0.2396225620 -0.6433697847 -0.0922031374 1.7139090140 -0.2920989140 -0.0084150005 0.0045704528 -0.0599926906 -0.0122513327 -0.1521434958 -0.2050811333 -0.1385565975
1.5203490408 -0.3697991949 0.0026569003 -0.6239666258 1.2141556530 0.2920803591 0.2588235367 -0.4645432068 -0.0689060899 1.4718576605 -0.2636572534 -0.0054844773 -0.0034667267 -0.0740466600 -0.0150632663 -0.1287695598 -0.1252371862 -0.1776990212
1.3001090217 -0.3234507771 0.0000322072 -0.5379234881 1.0811437569 0.2655816644 0.2768167249 -0.3149204196 -0.0358478794 1.2585743376 -0.2317888161 -0.0032046742 -0.0057277441 -0.0768789739 -0.0153194046 -0.1087646372 -0.0874131311 -0.1733717659
1.1090058546 -0.2795051829 -0.0011417761 -0.4617400674 0.9607247665 0.2424966830 0.2927378055 -0.1944363885 0.0052036094 1.0735164040 -0.2008549800 -0.0016991716 -0.0055332804 -0.0736058587 -0.0142981866 -0.0920455237 -0.0695353129 -0.1526299712
0.9446247401 -0.2398981128 -0.0015930306 -0.3950822873 0.8537124739 0.2226582767 0.3062807402 -0.0979530682 0.0491309884 0.9143384345 -0.1726398040 -0.0008057732 -0.0045776670 -0.0674953723 -0.0127769229 -0.0781611089 -0.0598720731 -0.1288228234
0.8039262573 -0.2051054942 -0.0017034085 -0.3373156494 0.7595616222 0.2056833798 0.3174619039 -0.0200737395 0.0917427342 0.7781020659 -0.1476974156 -0.0003179682 -0.0035772864 -0.0604212011 -0.0111711344 -0.0666096897 -0.0531254402 -0.1072629215
0.6838411104 -0.1749619162 -0.0016604421 -0.2876007382 0.6771914414 0.1911520875 0.3264553761 0.0434784981 0.1306017170 0.6618367673 -0.1260175312 -0.0000709167 -0.0027594141 -0.0533576852 -0.0096731699 -0.0569534340 -0.0473143213 -0.0893381582
0.5815197430 -0.1490479184 -0.0015517917 -0.2450139783 0.6053717505 0.1786784384 0.3334955375 0.0957949692 0.1646862201 0.5627812671 -0.1073508190 0.0000444048 -0.0021472812 -0.0467567619 -0.0083531053 -0.0488412615 -0.0419039074 -0.0748598679
0.4944199690 -0.1268693676 -0.0014173460 -0.2086401097 0.5428898638 0.1679307283 0.3388262935 0.1390746740 0.1938490108 0.4784705925 -0.0913651317 0.0000922980 -0.0016997840 -0.0407912156 -0.0072212902 -0.0419985513 -0.0368657390 -0.0631918433
0.4203206289 -0.1079376337 -0.0012754059 -0.1776271575 0.4886155792 0.1586312557 0.3426778471 0.1749228833 0.2183901996 0.4067507963 -0.0777180998 0.0001076405 -0.0013687534 -0.0354957637 -0.0062628939 -0.0362096358 -0.0322791146 -0.0537003526
0.3573032776 -0.0918027738 -0.0011348265 -0.1512116128 0.4415219375 0.1505493735 0.3452579898 0.2045644558 0.2387912072 0.3457618203 -0.0660887299 0.0001081203 -0.0011166303 -0.0308424959 -0.0054551020 -0.0313023715 -0.0281982993 -0.0458834896
0.3037217776 -0.0780646889 -0.0010002591 -0.1287246413 0.4006879662 0.1434935227 0.3467502902 0.2289755659 0.2555727516 0.2939081165 -0.0561892156 0.0001022249 -0.0009182342 -0.0267785350 -0.0047747292 -0.0271368007 -0.0246296915 -0.0393747265
0.2581690363 -0.0663741975 -0.0008742965 -0.1095880472 0.3652944620 0.1373041637 0.3473151979 0.2489597298 0.2692294205 0.2498262866 -0.0477674586 0.0000938558 -0.0007577738 -0.0232436954 -0.0042010421 -0.0235973654 -0.0215440707 -0.0339109554
0.2194449976 -0.0564297539 -0.0007583480 -0.0933056739 0.3346171773 0.1318479917 0.3470921686 0.2651913238 0.2802053126 0.2123538943 -0.0406054560 0.0000847616 -0.0006254799 -0.0201782607 -0.0037164273 -0.0205876120 -0.0188936773 -0.0292997215
0.1865275473 -0.0479725419 -0.0006530384 -0.0794534429 0.3080190759 0.1270133069 0.3462019991 0.2782418378 0.2888891508 0.1805011246 -0.0345160541 0.0000757266 -0.0005151210 -0.0175261630 -0.0033062185 -0.0180264845 -0.0166248820 -0.0253951016
0.1585468229 -0.0407812266 -0.0005584380 -0.0676696159 0.2849423294 0.1227063056 0.3447490620 0.2885974062 0.2956173886 0.1534257833 -0.0293392522 0.0000671123 -0.0004224644 -0.0152361251 -0.0029582734 -0.0158456028 -0.0146854792 -0.0220821973
0.1347628901 -0.0346669420 -0.0004742292 -0.0576459442 0.2649003852 0.1188480791 0.3428233450 0.2966718968 0.3006798800 0.1304115937 -0.0249385941 0.0000590906 -0.0003444155 -0.0132619298 -0.0026625351 -0.0139871604 -0.0130280607 -0.0192677608
0.1145465178 -0.0294687432 -0.0003998378 -0.0491198966 0.2474703132 0.1153721592 0.3405022791 0.3028175200 0.3043258445 0.1108495255 -0.0211978672 0.0000517404 -0.0002785660 -0.0115623169 -0.0024106521 -0.0124022365 -0.0116110843 -0.0168745758
0.0973627097 -0.0250495931 -0.0003345362 -0.0418679463 0.2322855754 0.1122224942 0.3378523648 0.3073338068 0.3067693402 0.0942218124 -0.0180181805 0.0000450881 -0.0002229633 -0.0101007158 -0.0021956681 -0.0110494046 -0.0103987940 -0.0148379562
0.0827566408 -0.0212928717 -0.0002775209 -0.0356998163 0.2190293142 0.1093517696 0.3349306132 0.3104753248 0.3081940628 0.0800883136 -0.0153154232 0.0000391275 -0.0001759885 -0.0088449045 -0.0020117737 -0.0098935708 -0.0093606676 -0.0131033922
0.0703416688 -0.0180993680 -0.0002279685 -0.0304535613 0.2074282142 0.1067200097 0.3317858178 0.3124583239 0.3087575046 0.0680748931 -0.0130180753 0.0000338306 -0.0001362860 -0.0077666346 -0.0018541065 -0.0089049957 -0.0084707360 -0.0116248262
0.0597891272 -0.0153847001 -0.0001850727 -0.0259913708 0.1972469563 0.1042934099 0.3284596726 0.3134664428 0.3085945543 0.0578635302 -0.0110653331 0.0000291556 -0.0001027166 -0.0068412479 -0.0017185897 -0.0080584702 -0.0077069235 -0.0103632996
0.0508196395 -0.0130771094 -0.0001480690 -0.0221959888 0.1882832559 0.1020433602 0.3249877506 0.3136555901 0.3078206184 0.0491839067 -0.0094055080 0.0000250529 -0.0000743222 -0.0060472996 -0.0016017998 -0.0073326190 -0.0070504635 -0.0092858431
0.0431957311 -0.0111155791 -0.0001162480 -0.0189676607 0.1803634610 0.0999456278 0.3214003583 0.3131581083 0.3065343321 0.0418062531 -0.0079946624 0.0000214697 -0.0000502963 -0.0053661975 -0.0015008582 -0.0067093124 -0.0064853983 -0.0083645483
0.0367155476 -0.0094482300 -0.0000889624 -0.0162215309 0.1733386717 0.0979796708 0.3177232773 0.3120863178 0.3048199109 0.0355352672 -0.0067954485 0.0000183525 -0.0000299606 -0.0047818665 -0.0014133419 -0.0061731699 -0.0059981545 -0.0075757848
0.0312075130 -0.0080309549 -0.0000656285 -0.0138854246 0.1670813382 0.0961280626 0.3139784081 0.3105355298 0.3027491901 0.0302049434 -0.0057761206 0.0000156499 -0.0000127439 -0.0042804384 -0.0013372092 -0.0057111397 -0.0055771855 -0.0068995377
0.0265257889 -0.0068262559 -0.0000457257 -0.0118979580 0.1614822916 0.0943760081 0.3101843264 0.3085866065 0.3003833882 0.0256741785 -0.0049096949 0.0000133134 0.0000018352 -0.0038499731 -0.0012707377 -0.0053121439 -0.0052126679 -0.0063188493
0.0225464141 -0.0058022552 -0.0000287926 -0.0102069292 0.1564481619 0.0927109365 0.3063567623 0.3063081357 0.2977746309 0.0218230357 -0.0041732353 0.0000112982 0.0000141825 -0.0034802067 -0.0012124735 -0.0049667778 -0.0048962446 -0.0058193467
0.0191640232 -0.0049318534 -0.0000144234 -0.0087679470 0.1518991393 0.0911221581 0.3025090135 0.3037582785 0.2949672630 0.0185495696 -0.0035472462 0.0000095640 0.0000246402 -0.0031623293 -0.0011611882 -0.0046670562 -0.0046208060 -0.0053888439
0.0162890574 -0.0041920141 -0.0000022625 -0.0075432646 0.1477670395 0.0896005756 0.2986523003 0.3009863381 0.2919989778 0.0157671270 -0.0030151566 0.0000080742 0.0000334977 -0.0028887879 -0.0011158428 -0.0044061974 -0.0043803043 -0.0050170056
0.0138453929 -0.0035631548 0.0000080000 -0.0065007867 0.1439936340 0.0881384396 0.2947960697 0.2980340932 0.2889017871 0.0134020533 -0.0025628813 0.0000067964 0.0000409993 -0.0026531141 -0.0010755585 -0.0041784414 -0.0041695948 -0.0046950636
0.0117683261 -0.0030286294 0.0000166333 -0.0056132243 0.1405292125 0.0867291434 0.2909482570 0.2949369302 0.2857028525 0.0113917425 -0.0021784480 0.0000057021 0.0000473517 -0.0024497732 -0.0010395911 -0.0039788950 -0.0039843015 -0.0044155774
0.0100028599 -0.0025742883 0.0000238706 -0.0048573758 0.1373313475 0.0853670481 0.2871155088 0.2917248052 0.2824251982 0.0096829795 -0.0018516800 0.0000047662 0.0000527299 -0.0022740335 -0.0010073101 -0.0038034010 -0.0038207019 -0.0041722312
0.0085022481 -0.0021881036 0.0000299136 -0.0042135152 0.1343638334 0.0840473361 0.2833033745 0.2884230617 0.2790883207 0.0082305317 -0.0015739275 0.0000039666 0.0000572818 -0.0021218522 -0.0009781811 -0.0036484267 -0.0036756298 -0.0039596632
Return to Figure 4

Figure 5: Transitional Dynamics of Capital Standards: Fast (blue solid) vs Slow (black dash-dot) Transition Arrangement.

Capital Ratio_Fast Cost of Capital_Fast Spreads_Fast Recapitalization_Fast Labor Hours_Fast Lending_Fast Consumption_Fast Investment_Fast Output_Fast Capital Ratio_Slow Cost of Capital_Slow Spreads_Slow Recapitalization_Slow Labor Hours_Slow Lending_Slow Consumption_Slow Investment_Slow Output_Slow
10.00000 58.85006 336.14918 62.32753 -0.38458 -0.36019 0.02526 -1.18397 -0.28844 10.000000 8.739689 13.223084 11.200951 -0.082689 -0.040745 0.009513 -0.259668 -0.062017
12.24745 26.66155 214.43138 30.63473 -0.53695 -0.35503 0.04128 -1.66412 -0.41007 10.413797 7.779590 14.252332 10.016252 -0.134990 -0.052789 0.017437 -0.435046 -0.102863
13.55403 9.91511 93.43463 12.09104 -0.48907 -0.24471 0.04540 -1.58012 -0.38430 10.800835 6.760153 9.959248 8.743283 -0.159850 -0.055645 0.022996 -0.530752 -0.124182
14.25870 3.34051 36.53383 4.22768 -0.36529 -0.16432 0.04017 -1.24758 -0.30083 11.161453 6.053622 8.121840 7.855380 -0.166950 -0.059461 0.026127 -0.571575 -0.132708
14.62465 0.87806 14.00039 1.17564 -0.23952 -0.13221 0.02961 -0.88684 -0.21359 11.496292 5.479778 7.336771 7.132227 -0.164343 -0.066176 0.027137 -0.579742 -0.134129
14.81114 -0.05329 5.94683 0.00926 -0.14241 -0.13034 0.01720 -0.59481 -0.14543 11.806227 4.962942 6.916944 6.479792 -0.157132 -0.075065 0.026467 -0.570101 -0.132063
14.90527 -0.45070 3.12237 -0.48522 -0.07823 -0.14022 0.00518 -0.39051 -0.10005 12.092306 4.477283 6.576659 5.865488 -0.148084 -0.084973 0.024549 -0.551268 -0.128477
14.95256 -0.66173 1.95758 -0.74444 -0.04019 -0.15130 -0.00531 -0.25944 -0.07292 12.355700 4.017246 6.223282 5.282166 -0.138534 -0.095011 0.021756 -0.527847 -0.124318
14.97626 -0.79484 1.30169 -0.90683 -0.01950 -0.15949 -0.01387 -0.17951 -0.05795 12.597656 3.583657 5.843014 4.730878 -0.129060 -0.104640 0.018388 -0.502223 -0.119995
14.98813 -0.88326 0.84929 -1.01480 -0.00908 -0.16419 -0.02055 -0.13183 -0.05017 12.819465 3.178184 5.446837 4.213884 -0.119893 -0.113590 0.014676 -0.475655 -0.115673
14.99406 -0.94059 0.52894 -1.08527 -0.00421 -0.16606 -0.02560 -0.10322 -0.04627 13.022430 2.801664 5.048928 3.732467 -0.111118 -0.121750 0.010793 -0.448866 -0.111417
14.99703 -0.97590 0.31325 -1.12920 -0.00214 -0.16601 -0.02932 -0.08550 -0.04428 13.207845 2.453931 4.660128 3.286660 -0.102768 -0.129091 0.006869 -0.422326 -0.107254
14.99852 -0.99640 0.17727 -1.15525 -0.00135 -0.16479 -0.03197 -0.07395 -0.04315 13.376974 2.134088 4.287232 2.875552 -0.094858 -0.135631 0.002999 -0.396364 -0.103204
14.99926 -1.00760 0.09669 -1.17004 -0.00110 -0.16290 -0.03381 -0.06595 -0.04237 13.531041 1.840795 3.933973 2.497647 -0.087396 -0.141401 -0.000750 -0.371226 -0.099282
14.99963 -1.01327 0.05143 -1.17815 -0.00104 -0.16063 -0.03504 -0.06007 -0.04170 13.671219 1.572491 3.602107 2.151134 -0.080386 -0.146442 -0.004328 -0.347092 -0.095499
14.99981 -1.01585 0.02712 -1.18251 -0.00104 -0.15817 -0.03580 -0.05553 -0.04105 13.798619 1.327525 3.292208 1.834060 -0.073825 -0.150800 -0.007704 -0.324085 -0.091866
14.99991 -1.01675 0.01452 -1.18486 -0.00103 -0.15561 -0.03620 -0.05190 -0.04038 13.914295 1.104241 3.004155 1.544434 -0.067707 -0.154520 -0.010858 -0.302286 -0.088390
14.99995 -1.01679 0.00812 -1.18615 -0.00099 -0.15301 -0.03635 -0.04890 -0.03969 14.019231 0.901014 2.737415 1.280286 -0.062021 -0.157646 -0.013780 -0.281737 -0.085073
14.99998 -1.01638 0.00491 -1.18692 -0.00094 -0.15038 -0.03631 -0.04637 -0.03899 14.114351 0.716283 2.491201 1.039702 -0.056751 -0.160222 -0.016465 -0.262450 -0.081918
14.99999 -1.01576 0.00326 -1.18743 -0.00087 -0.14775 -0.03612 -0.04417 -0.03826 14.200510 0.548559 2.264563 0.820846 -0.051880 -0.162292 -0.018915 -0.244412 -0.078921
14.99999 -1.01502 0.00239 -1.18779 -0.00078 -0.14513 -0.03582 -0.04224 -0.03753 14.278503 0.396434 2.056457 0.621970 -0.047388 -0.163898 -0.021134 -0.227594 -0.076078
15.00000 -1.01422 0.00189 -1.18808 -0.00068 -0.14253 -0.03545 -0.04050 -0.03680 14.349063 0.258590 1.865780 0.441425 -0.043253 -0.165078 -0.023132 -0.211955 -0.073386
15.00000 -1.01339 0.00158 -1.18834 -0.00057 -0.13995 -0.03503 -0.03891 -0.03606 14.412865 0.133792 1.691408 0.277663 -0.039453 -0.165871 -0.024918 -0.197442 -0.070837
15.00000 -1.01255 0.00138 -1.18856 -0.00046 -0.13740 -0.03456 -0.03744 -0.03533 14.470529 0.020893 1.532219 0.129238 -0.035966 -0.166312 -0.026504 -0.183998 -0.068425
15.00000 -1.01170 0.00124 -1.18877 -0.00034 -0.13487 -0.03407 -0.03607 -0.03460 14.522624 -0.081168 1.387109 -0.005193 -0.032771 -0.166434 -0.027902 -0.171561 -0.066142
15.00000 -1.01086 0.00114 -1.18896 -0.00022 -0.13237 -0.03355 -0.03476 -0.03388 14.569670 -0.173372 1.255012 -0.126876 -0.029845 -0.166269 -0.029123 -0.160070 -0.063981
15.00000 -1.01002 0.00106 -1.18915 -0.00010 -0.12990 -0.03303 -0.03351 -0.03316 14.612141 -0.256619 1.134905 -0.236959 -0.027169 -0.165844 -0.030181 -0.149459 -0.061934
15.00000 -1.00918 0.00100 -1.18932 0.00003 -0.12746 -0.03250 -0.03231 -0.03245 14.650471 -0.331738 1.025814 -0.336499 -0.024722 -0.165186 -0.031088 -0.139669 -0.059994
15.00000 -1.00835 0.00096 -1.18949 0.00015 -0.12506 -0.03196 -0.03115 -0.03175 14.685055 -0.399487 0.926825 -0.426467 -0.022487 -0.164321 -0.031855 -0.130639 -0.058154
15.00000 -1.00753 0.00092 -1.18966 0.00027 -0.12268 -0.03143 -0.03002 -0.03105 14.716249 -0.460558 0.837077 -0.507753 -0.020445 -0.163269 -0.032495 -0.122310 -0.056407
Return to Figure 5
♣ This version is optimized for use by screen readers. Descriptions for all mathematical expressions are provided in LaTex format. A printable pdf version is available. Return to Text
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Last update: May 17, 2011