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Abstract: Debate over the U.S. federal estate tax has intensified recently as a result of the sunset provisions in the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act (EGTRRA) of 2001 and changes in law passed in conjunction with the "fiscal cliff" at the end of 2012. Despite recent changes in the law, there remains an open debate regarding the extent to which prospective estates comprise assets that have been taxed previously. Using wealth data on U.S. households, we forecast changes in household wealth in the coming decade and calculate the importance of untaxed wealth in bequeathed estates. Connecting further to the debate, we investigate the impact of various policies on U.S. households. In particular, we compare policies in which the entire estate is taxed at death (estate tax) to those in which only the unrealized capital gains portion is subject to tax (capital gains tax). We estimate that the average unrealized capital gains in estates monotonically increases with the size of the estate, ranging from 13% for estates under $2 million to 55% for estates over $100 million. We also find that policies aimed at taxing the entire estate raise more revenue than those aimed at taxing unrealized gains. However, policies that tax only gains concentrate a larger portion of the tax burden on high wealth households.

Keywords: Estate tax, capital gains, tax policy, household wealth

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