Did the Fed's Announcement of an Inflation Objective Influence Expectations?, Accessible Data
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Figure 1: Survey Measures of Long-Run Expected Inflation, 1992-Present
Note. Median responses.
Sources: University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers 
; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecaster (SPF) .
Percent
| Date | Michigan (next 5 to 10 years) | Survey of Professional Forecaster (SPF) CPI (next 10 years) | SPF PCE (next 10 years) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1992:1 | 3.53 | 3.7 | |
| 1992:2 | 3.77 | 3.9 | |
| 1992:3 | 3.8 | 3.75 | |
| 1992:4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | |
| 1993:1 | 3.7 | 3.5 | |
| 1993:2 | 3.6 | 3.7 | |
| 1993:3 | 3.37 | 3.45 | |
| 1993:4 | 3.5 | 3.45 | |
| 1994:1 | 3.3 | 3.45 | |
| 1994:2 | 3.33 | 3.5 | |
| 1994:3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | |
| 1994:4 | 3.23 | 3.5 | |
| 1995:1 | 3.23 | 3.3 | |
| 1995:2 | 3.27 | 3.35 | |
| 1995:3 | 3.13 | 3.2 | |
| 1995:4 | 3.13 | 3 | |
| 1996:1 | 3.23 | 3 | |
| 1996:2 | 3.13 | 3 | |
| 1996:3 | 3.23 | 3 | |
| 1996:4 | 3 | 3 | |
| 1997:1 | 3.1 | 3 | |
| 1997:2 | 3 | 2.85 | |
| 1997:3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 1997:4 | 3.07 | 2.65 | |
| 1998:1 | 2.87 | 2.6 | |
| 1998:2 | 2.8 | 2.5 | |
| 1998:3 | 2.77 | 2.5 | |
| 1998:4 | 2.83 | 2.5 | |
| 1999:1 | 2.83 | 2.3 | |
| 1999:2 | 2.83 | 2.5 | |
| 1999:3 | 2.87 | 2.5 | |
| 1999:4 | 2.87 | 2.5 | |
| 2000:1 | 3 | 2.5 | |
| 2000:2 | 2.83 | 2.5 | |
| 2000:3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | |
| 2000:4 | 2.97 | 2.5 | |
| 2001:1 | 2.97 | 2.5 | |
| 2001:2 | 3.03 | 2.5 | |
| 2001:3 | 2.93 | 2.5 | |
| 2001:4 | 2.83 | 2.55 | |
| 2002:1 | 2.77 | 2.5 | |
| 2002:2 | 2.87 | 2.5 | |
| 2002:3 | 2.73 | 2.5 | |
| 2002:4 | 2.8 | 2.45 | |
| 2003:1 | 2.73 | 2.5 | |
| 2003:2 | 2.73 | 2.5 | |
| 2003:3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | |
| 2003:4 | 2.77 | 2.5 | |
| 2004:1 | 2.87 | 2.5 | |
| 2004:2 | 2.8 | 2.5 | |
| 2004:3 | 2.77 | 2.5 | |
| 2004:4 | 2.77 | 2.5 | |
| 2005:1 | 2.8 | 2.45 | |
| 2005:2 | 2.9 | 2.5 | |
| 2005:3 | 2.93 | 2.5 | |
| 2005:4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | |
| 2006:1 | 2.9 | 2.5 | |
| 2006:2 | 3.07 | 2.5 | |
| 2006:3 | 3.03 | 2.5 | |
| 2006:4 | 3.03 | 2.5 | |
| 2007:1 | 2.93 | 2.35 | 2 |
| 2007:2 | 3.03 | 2.4 | 2 |
| 2007:3 | 2.97 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| 2007:4 | 2.93 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| 2008:1 | 2.97 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| 2008:2 | 3.33 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| 2008:3 | 3.13 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| 2008:4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| 2009:1 | 2.87 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| 2009:2 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.28 |
| 2009:3 | 2.87 | 2.5 | 2.15 |
| 2009:4 | 2.87 | 2.26 | 2.1 |
| 2010:1 | 2.77 | 2.39 | 2.1 |
| 2010:2 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.15 |
| 2010:3 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.11 |
| 2010:4 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2 |
| 2011:1 | 3 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| 2011:2 | 2.93 | 2.4 | 2.27 |
| 2011:3 | 2.87 | 2.4 | 2.25 |
| 2011:4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.16 |
| 2012:1 | 2.87 | 2.3 | 2.15 |
| 2012:2 | 2.8 | 2.48 | 2.2 |
| 2012:3 | 2.83 | 2.35 | 2.2 |
| 2012:4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| 2013:1 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2 |
| 2013:2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2 |
| 2013:3 | 2.9 | 2.21 | 2 |
| 2013:4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2 |
| 2014:1 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2 |
| 2014:2 | 2.87 | 2.25 | 2 |
| 2014:3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2 |
| 2014:4 | 2.73 | 2.2 | 2 |
| 2015:1 | 2.77 | 2.1 | 2 |
| 2015:2 | 2.14 | 1.98 |
Figure 2: Long-Run Expected Inflation from SPF, 2011-Present
Note. Median responses.
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecaster (SPF) .
Percent
| Date | SPF CPI (next 10 years) | SPF CPI (years 6 to 10) | SPF PCE (next 10 years) | SPF PCE (years 6 to 10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011:1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| 2011:2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.27 | 2.4 |
| 2011:3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| 2011:4 | 2.5 | 2.35 | 2.16 | 2.25 |
| 2012:1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.15 | 2.2 |
| 2012:2 | 2.48 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.18 |
| 2012:3 | 2.35 | 2.55 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 2012:4 | 2.3 | 2.35 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| 2013:1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2 | 2.1 |
| 2013:2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2 | 2.1 |
| 2013:3 | 2.21 | 2.27 | 2 | 2.15 |
| 2013:4 | 2.3 | 2.45 | 2 | 2.3 |
| 2014:1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.2 |
| 2014:2 | 2.25 | 2.35 | 2 | 2.1 |
| 2014:3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2 | 2.1 |
| 2014:4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2 | 2.1 |
| 2015:1 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2 | 2 |
| 2015:2 | 2.14 | 2.38 | 1.98 | 2 |
Figure 3: Distribution of SPR Expectations for 10-year PCE Inflation
Sources: Authors' calculations using data from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecaster (SPF) and University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers .
Percent
| Less or equal to 1 | 1.01 to 1.50 | 1.51 to 2.00 | 2.01 to 2.50 | 2.51 to 3.00 | Bigger than 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-2011 (blue bars) | 2.5 | 7.7 | 31.4 | 38.8 | 11.8 | 7.9 |
| 2012-2014 (orange bars) | 1.7 | 3.5 | 45.4 | 42.3 | 6.1 | 1.0 |
Figure 4: Distribution of Michagan Expectations for 5- to 10-Year Inflation
Sources: Authors' calculations using data from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecaster (SPF) and University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers .
Percent
| Same or down | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Bigger than 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-2011 (blue bars) | 11.3 | 13.2 | 15.1 | 21.6 | 5.7 | 14.3 | 18.8 |
| 2012-2014 (orange bars) | 8.0 | 16.0 | 15.2 | 22.7 | 6.1 | 13.1 | 18.9 |
Figure 5: Share of SPF Respondents Who Expect Exactly 2 Percent PCE Inflation Over the Next 10 Years
Sources: Authors' calculations using data from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecaster (SPF) and University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers .
Percent
| Date | Percent |
|---|---|
| 2007 | 20.4 |
| 2008 | 17.7 |
| 2009 | 7.0 |
| 2010 | 9.6 |
| 2011 | 8.7 |
| 2012 | 17.9 |
| 2013 | 14.8 |
| 2014 | 19.5 |
Figure 6: Share of Michigan Survey Respondents Who Expect 2 Percent Inflation Over the Next 5 to 10 Years
Sources: Authors' calculations using data from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecaster (SPF) and University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers .
Percent
| Date | Percent |
|---|---|
| 2007 | 14.3 |
| 2008 | 11.9 |
| 2009 | 13.9 |
| 2010 | 15.6 |
| 2011 | 15.7 |
| 2012 | 14.8 |
| 2013 | 14.7 |
| 2014 | 16.1 |