Inflation Perceptions and Inflation Expectations, Accessible Data
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Figure 1: Inflation Perceptions and Expectations, February 2016
Panel A: Long-term Inflation Perceptions
| Perceived average inflation over the past 5 to 10 years | Fraction |
|---|---|
| -15 | 0.0021 |
| -10 | 0.001 |
| -5 | 0.0073 |
| -4 | 0.0036 |
| -3 | 0.0104 |
| -2 | 0.0088 |
| -1 | 0.0197 |
| 0 | 0.0373 |
| 1 | 0.1845 |
| 2 | 0.2264 |
| 3 | 0.2021 |
| 4 | 0.056 |
| 5 | 0.1207 |
| 6 | 0.013 |
| 7 | 0.0098 |
| 8 | 0.0145 |
| 10 | 0.0544 |
| 12 | 0.001 |
| 15 | 0.0109 |
| 20 | 0.0052 |
| 25 | 0.0062 |
| ≥30 | 0.0052 |
Panel B: Short-term Inflation Perceptions
| Perceived inflation over the past 12 months | Fraction |
|---|---|
| ≤-20 | 0.0222 |
| -17 | 0.0041 |
| -15 | 0.0031 |
| -10 | 0.0114 |
| -6 | 0.0031 |
| -5 | 0.0155 |
| -3 | 0.0321 |
| -2 | 0.0057 |
| -1 | 0.0228 |
| 0 | 0.2073 |
| 1 | 0.1474 |
| 2 | 0.137 |
| 3 | 0.137 |
| 4 | 0.0326 |
| 5 | 0.107 |
| 6 | 0.0129 |
| 7 | 0.0083 |
| 8 | 0.0083 |
| 10 | 0.0336 |
| 13 | 0.0031 |
| 15 | 0.0119 |
| 20 | 0.0093 |
| 25 | 0.0119 |
| ≥30 | 0.0124 |
Panel C: Long-term Inflation Expectations
| Expected average inflation over the next 5 to 10 years | Fraction |
|---|---|
| -10 | 0.0032 |
| -5 | 0.0064 |
| -4 | 0.0032 |
| -3 | 0.0085 |
| -2 | 0.0144 |
| -1 | 0.0106 |
| 0 | 0.0335 |
| 1 | 0.2139 |
| 2 | 0.206 |
| 3 | 0.2272 |
| 4 | 0.0633 |
| 5 | 0.1155 |
| 6 | 0.0096 |
| 7 | 0.0202 |
| 8 | 0.0059 |
| 9 | 0.008 |
| 10 | 0.0357 |
| 11 | 0.0032 |
| 12 | 0.0027 |
| 15 | 0.009 |
Panel D: Short-term Inflation Expectations
| Expected inflation over the next 12 months | Fraction |
|---|---|
| -10 | 0.0078 |
| -6 | 0.0084 |
| -5 | 0.0141 |
| -3 | 0.0063 |
| -2 | 0.0047 |
| -1 | 0.0016 |
| 0 | 0.1984 |
| 1 | 0.1561 |
| 2 | 0.1039 |
| 3 | 0.1744 |
| 4 | 0.0392 |
| 5 | 0.1708 |
| 6 | 0.0057 |
| 7 | 0.0141 |
| 8 | 0.0084 |
| 9 | 0.0047 |
| 10 | 0.0564 |
| 11 | 0.001 |
| 12 | 0.0084 |
| 13 | 0.001 |
| 15 | 0.0089 |
| 20 | 0.0057 |
Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Authors' calculations. Weighted.
Figure 2: Differences between Inflation Perceptions and Expectations, February 2016
Panel A: Long-term Inflation
| Difference between long-term inflation expectations and perceptions | Fraction |
|---|---|
| -25 | 0.0066 |
| -23 | 0.0033 |
| -15 | 0.0027 |
| -11 | 0.0049 |
| -10 | 0.0077 |
| -9 | 0.0016 |
| -8 | 0.0022 |
| -7 | 0.011 |
| -6 | 0.0099 |
| -5 | 0.0121 |
| -4 | 0.0209 |
| -3 | 0.0253 |
| -2 | 0.0819 |
| -1 | 0.1423 |
| 0 | 0.3385 |
| 1 | 0.1374 |
| 2 | 0.0637 |
| 3 | 0.05 |
| 4 | 0.0231 |
| 5 | 0.0247 |
| 6 | 0.0143 |
| 7 | 0.0071 |
| 8 | 0.0022 |
| 10 | 0.0016 |
| 12 | 0.0011 |
| 13 | 0.0038 |
Panel B: Short-term Inflation
| Difference between short-term inflation expectations and perceptions | Fraction |
|---|---|
| ≤-30 | 0.0038 |
| -28 | 0.0016 |
| -25 | 0.0033 |
| -21 | 0.0054 |
| -14 | 0.0027 |
| -13 | 0.0011 |
| -10 | 0.013 |
| -7 | 0.0038 |
| -6 | 0.0087 |
| -5 | 0.0233 |
| -4 | 0.0114 |
| -3 | 0.0233 |
| -2 | 0.0635 |
| -1 | 0.0787 |
| 0 | 0.319 |
| 1 | 0.1329 |
| 2 | 0.0727 |
| 3 | 0.0402 |
| 4 | 0.0374 |
| 5 | 0.0619 |
| 6 | 0.0092 |
| 7 | 0.0125 |
| 8 | 0.0255 |
| 9 | 0.0016 |
| 10 | 0.0043 |
| 12 | 0.0038 |
| 15 | 0.0043 |
| 20 | 0.0065 |
| 22 | 0.0022 |
| 24 | 0.0033 |
| 25 | 0.0027 |
| 27 | 0.0022 |
| 30 | 0.0022 |
| 35 | 0.0022 |
| 37 | 0.0054 |
| 40 | 0.0043 |
Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Authors' calculations. Weighted.
Figure 3: Correlation of Inflation Perceptions and Expectations, February 2016
Panel A: Long-term Inflation
| Perceived inflation over the past 5 to 10 years | Expected inflation over the next 5 to 10 years | Observation weight |
|---|---|---|
| -10 | 2 | 0.5 |
| -5 | -3 | 1.25 |
| -5 | 2 | 1.5 |
| -5 | 5 | 0.75 |
| -4 | 2 | 1.25 |
| -4 | 3 | 0.5 |
| -3 | -5 | 1.25 |
| -3 | 3 | 0.75 |
| -3 | 10 | 1 |
| -3 | 0 | 2 |
| -2 | -1 | 0.5 |
| -2 | 1 | 1.5 |
| -2 | 2 | 0.5 |
| -2 | 3 | 1.25 |
| -1 | -1 | 0.75 |
| -1 | 0 | 0.75 |
| -1 | 1 | 0.5 |
| -1 | 3 | 2.25 |
| -1 | 5 | 2.25 |
| -1 | 2 | 3 |
| 0 | -10 | 1.5 |
| 0 | -1 | 0.5 |
| 0 | 5 | 1 |
| 0 | 6 | 0.75 |
| 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 0 | 3 | 2.75 |
| 0 | 1 | 3.75 |
| 0 | 2 | 3.75 |
| 1 | 4 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | 3 | 8.25 |
| 1 | 2 | 18.5 |
| 1 | 1 | 48.75 |
| 2 | 10 | 1 |
| 2 | 15 | 0.75 |
| 2 | -2 | 2.75 |
| 2 | -1 | 1.75 |
| 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 7 | 2.25 |
| 2 | 0 | 2.75 |
| 2 | 5 | 9.25 |
| 2 | 1 | 21.75 |
| 2 | 3 | 28.75 |
| 2 | 2 | 31.5 |
| 3 | -5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | -4 | 1.5 |
| 3 | -3 | 1.25 |
| 3 | -2 | 1.25 |
| 3 | 6 | 1.25 |
| 3 | 8 | 1.25 |
| 3 | 10 | 1.25 |
| 3 | 7 | 1.75 |
| 3 | 4 | 4.25 |
| 3 | 5 | 11.25 |
| 3 | 1 | 13.25 |
| 3 | 2 | 24 |
| 3 | 3 | 34 |
| 4 | -3 | 0.75 |
| 4 | -2 | 1.5 |
| 4 | 0 | 0.75 |
| 4 | 9 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | 1.5 |
| 4 | 5 | 2.25 |
| 4 | 3 | 5.75 |
| 4 | 4 | 11.5 |
| 5 | -2 | 1.25 |
| 5 | 7 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 9 | 0.75 |
| 5 | 11 | 1.5 |
| 5 | 10 | 2.5 |
| 5 | 1 | 5 |
| 5 | 2 | 6.75 |
| 5 | 4 | 6.25 |
| 5 | 5 | 14.25 |
| 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | 3 | 0.5 |
| 6 | 6 | 1 |
| 6 | 5 | 2.25 |
| 6 | 7 | 2.5 |
| 7 | 3 | 0.5 |
| 7 | 4 | 0.5 |
| 7 | 7 | 1.25 |
| 7 | 5 | 2.5 |
| 8 | -3 | 0.75 |
| 8 | 4 | 0.5 |
| 8 | 7 | 1.25 |
| 8 | 9 | 1.25 |
| 8 | 12 | 1.25 |
| 8 | 5 | 2 |
| 10 | -5 | 1.25 |
| 10 | -1 | 1.5 |
| 10 | 1 | 0.75 |
| 10 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 10 | 3 | 1.5 |
| 10 | 4 | 1 |
| 10 | 8 | 1.5 |
| 10 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | 5 | 1.75 |
| 10 | 15 | 2 |
| 10 | 10 | 8 |
| 12 | 15 | 0.5 |
| 15 | 9 | 0.75 |
| 15 | 10 | 1.5 |
| 20 | 15 | 1 |
| 25 | 0 | 1.5 |
| 25 | 2 | 1.5 |
| 35 | 10 | 1.5 |
The line fitting all observations has a slope of 0.30.
The line fitting the observations sensored at -10 and 15 has a slope of 0.49.
Panel B: Short-term Inflation
| Perceived inflation over the past 12 months | Expected inflation over the next 12 months | Observation weight |
|---|---|---|
| -35 | 5 | 1.25 |
| -30 | 7 | 1 |
| -30 | 10 | 0.75 |
| -25 | 0 | 1.25 |
| -25 | 5 | 1 |
| -25 | 12 | 1.5 |
| -20 | 4 | 1.5 |
| -20 | 15 | 1 |
| -20 | 0 | 1.5 |
| -17 | 5 | 1 |
| -17 | 10 | 1 |
| -15 | -10 | 1.5 |
| -10 | -10 | 1.5 |
| -10 | -5 | 1.5 |
| -10 | -1 | 0.75 |
| -10 | 2 | 1 |
| -10 | 5 | 0.75 |
| -6 | 0 | 1.5 |
| -5 | -5 | 0.75 |
| -5 | 3 | 2 |
| -5 | 0 | 4.75 |
| -3 | -6 | 1.25 |
| -3 | -3 | 1 |
| -3 | 2 | 1.25 |
| -3 | 0 | 1.5 |
| -3 | 1 | 1.75 |
| -3 | 3 | 2.75 |
| -3 | 5 | 6 |
| -2 | 3 | 0.75 |
| -2 | 0 | 2 |
| -1 | -5 | 1.25 |
| -1 | 1 | 1.5 |
| -1 | 2 | 1.75 |
| -1 | 3 | 1.25 |
| -1 | 0 | 5.25 |
| 0 | -10 | 0.75 |
| 0 | -6 | 1.25 |
| 0 | -2 | 0.75 |
| 0 | 7 | 1.5 |
| 0 | 20 | 1.5 |
| 0 | 10 | 2 |
| 0 | 4 | 2.75 |
| 0 | 2 | 8.5 |
| 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 0 | 1 | 12.75 |
| 0 | 0 | 43.25 |
| 1 | -2 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5 | 6.75 |
| 1 | 3 | 8.5 |
| 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 1 | 1 | 34.25 |
| 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | 2.25 |
| 2 | 5 | 5.25 |
| 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 2 | 0 | 10.5 |
| 2 | 2 | 16.75 |
| 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 3 | -3 | 1.25 |
| 3 | 7 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 15 | 0.75 |
| 3 | 8 | 2.25 |
| 3 | 10 | 3.25 |
| 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 3 | 4 | 4.75 |
| 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 3 | 5 | 8.25 |
| 3 | 2 | 8.5 |
| 3 | 3 | 19.25 |
| 4 | -3 | 0.75 |
| 4 | 8 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 12 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | 1.75 |
| 4 | 3 | 5.5 |
| 4 | 5 | 6.25 |
| 5 | 6 | 1.25 |
| 5 | 13 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 20 | 1.25 |
| 5 | -5 | 2.5 |
| 5 | 9 | 2.25 |
| 5 | 1 | 3.25 |
| 5 | 7 | 2.75 |
| 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | 10 | 5.5 |
| 5 | 3 | 6.5 |
| 5 | 5 | 18 |
| 6 | 3 | 1.5 |
| 6 | 6 | 1.5 |
| 6 | 5 | 3.25 |
| 7 | 11 | 0.5 |
| 7 | 5 | 3.5 |
| 8 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | 4 | 0.75 |
| 8 | 8 | 1.25 |
| 8 | 15 | 1 |
| 10 | 0 | 1.25 |
| 10 | 4 | 1.5 |
| 10 | 12 | 1 |
| 10 | 5 | 3.75 |
| 10 | 10 | 7.75 |
| 13 | 10 | 1.5 |
| 15 | -6 | 1.5 |
| 15 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 15 | 5 | 1.5 |
| 15 | 10 | 1.5 |
| 20 | 15 | 1.5 |
| 25 | -5 | 0.75 |
| 25 | 0 | 1.5 |
| 25 | 4 | 1 |
| 25 | 12 | 0.5 |
| 32 | 4 | 0.75 |
| 35 | 1 | 1 |
The line fitting all observations has a slope of 0.09.
The line fitting the observations sensored at -10 and 15 has a slope of 0.43.
Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Authors' calculations. Weighted.