FRB: FEDS Notes: The Expected Real Interest Rate in the Long Run: Time Series Evidence with the Effective Lower Bound, Accessible Data

The Expected Real Interest Rate in the Long Run: Time Series Evidence with the Effective Lower Bound, Accessible Data

Accessible version of figures

Figure 1: Expected Long-Run Real Federal Funds Rate

Note: At each date, filtered estimates use data up through that date to estimate the parameters of the model and the level of the long-run real federal funds rate. Smoothed estimates use data through the entire sample to estimate the parameters and the historical level of the long-run real federal funds rate. For the results in this figure, we impose that the shadow rate be less than zero during the period of the ELB. Shaded regions are 50 and 90 percent uncertainty bands. Estimated trends are expressed in annual percentage terms.

Panel A: Filtered Estimates

Date YYYYQQ	Mean	5th Percentile	25th Percentile	75th Percentile	95 Percentile
196001	1.7412	0.1774	1.1830	2.2948	3.3204
196002	1.6910	0.1268	1.1328	2.2427	3.2657
196003	1.6130	0.0458	1.0558	2.1658	3.1849
196004	1.6676	0.0956	1.1090	2.2236	3.2472
196101	1.6667	0.0954	1.1106	2.2186	3.2469
196102	1.6961	0.1256	1.1418	2.2467	3.2731
196103	1.7036	0.1273	1.1446	2.2568	3.2875
196104	1.6776	0.1127	1.1271	2.2252	3.2483
196201	1.6438	0.0765	1.0935	2.1903	3.2120
196202	1.6058	0.0312	1.0533	2.1565	3.1768
196203	1.6442	0.0784	1.0933	2.1923	3.2154
196204	1.6054	0.0408	1.0537	2.1524	3.1733
196301	1.6448	0.0782	1.0937	2.1918	3.2167
196302	1.6673	0.1002	1.1150	2.2156	3.2394
196303	1.6488	0.0854	1.0978	2.1967	3.2192
196304	1.6749	0.1114	1.1251	2.2233	3.2473
196401	1.6822	0.1257	1.1352	2.2280	3.2452
196402	1.6768	0.1316	1.1330	2.2169	3.2314
196403	1.6666	0.1271	1.1232	2.2072	3.2178
196404	1.6648	0.1279	1.1238	2.2032	3.2151
196501	1.6847	0.1626	1.1492	2.2176	3.2198
196502	1.6708	0.1665	1.1410	2.1976	3.1931
196503	1.6741	0.1774	1.1448	2.1981	3.1919
196504	1.7119	0.2217	1.1828	2.2350	3.2270
196601	1.7322	0.2460	1.2033	2.2543	3.2459
196602	1.7142	0.2346	1.1853	2.2356	3.2221
196603	1.7740	0.3052	1.2465	2.2920	3.2798
196604	1.7451	0.2818	1.2205	2.2608	3.2406
196701	1.7225	0.2627	1.2007	2.2369	3.2089
196702	1.7465	0.2957	1.2247	2.2583	3.2284
196703	1.7897	0.3461	1.2680	2.3015	3.2645
196704	1.8311	0.3910	1.3106	2.3425	3.3081
196801	1.8034	0.3671	1.2854	2.3130	3.2751
196802	1.8295	0.4015	1.3123	2.3374	3.2977
196803	1.8169	0.3926	1.3013	2.3209	3.2785
196804	1.8473	0.4268	1.3289	2.3536	3.3114
196901	1.8711	0.4546	1.3533	2.3766	3.3364
196902	1.8573	0.4412	1.3379	2.3629	3.3215
196903	1.9141	0.5025	1.3927	2.4214	3.3832
196904	1.9252	0.5115	1.4023	2.4331	3.3985
197001	1.9283	0.5173	1.4036	2.4333	3.4037
197002	1.9467	0.5359	1.4232	2.4531	3.4222
197003	1.9223	0.5192	1.4010	2.4275	3.3923
197004	1.8747	0.4732	1.3541	2.3772	3.3450
197101	1.8041	0.3975	1.2828	2.3053	3.2741
197102	1.8326	0.4307	1.3109	2.3330	3.3041
197103	1.8486	0.4516	1.3251	2.3487	3.3183
197104	1.8146	0.4140	1.2912	2.3130	3.2900
197201	1.8004	0.3978	1.2755	2.3009	3.2817
197202	1.8121	0.4084	1.2845	2.3129	3.2967
197203	1.8132	0.4109	1.2833	2.3159	3.3015
197204	1.8203	0.4194	1.2883	2.3252	3.3150
197301	1.8279	0.4203	1.2920	2.3345	3.3307
197302	1.8039	0.3917	1.2657	2.3122	3.3095
197303	1.8239	0.4114	1.2823	2.3346	3.3370
197304	1.7927	0.3718	1.2477	2.3061	3.3100
197401	1.7820	0.3544	1.2330	2.2986	3.3087
197402	1.7865	0.3583	1.2366	2.3035	3.3141
197403	1.7973	0.3684	1.2461	2.3158	3.3228
197404	1.7712	0.3381	1.2199	2.2898	3.3013
197501	1.7910	0.3583	1.2382	2.3108	3.3296
197502	1.8123	0.3835	1.2585	2.3330	3.3505
197503	1.8146	0.3793	1.2596	2.3384	3.3559
197504	1.8125	0.3772	1.2574	2.3378	3.3532
197601	1.7925	0.3522	1.2348	2.3191	3.3277
197602	1.8076	0.3621	1.2509	2.3346	3.3424
197603	1.8113	0.3643	1.2518	2.3412	3.3447
197604	1.7803	0.3254	1.2200	2.3128	3.3151
197701	1.8089	0.3524	1.2470	2.3436	3.3539
197702	1.8002	0.3382	1.2361	2.3371	3.3510
197703	1.8110	0.3491	1.2454	2.3497	3.3556
197704	1.8413	0.3720	1.2750	2.3827	3.3946
197801	1.8694	0.3955	1.3002	2.4112	3.4255
197802	1.8816	0.3983	1.3101	2.4277	3.4451
197803	1.9021	0.4152	1.3275	2.4504	3.4686
197804	1.9245	0.4321	1.3484	2.4771	3.4948
197901	1.9571	0.4522	1.3768	2.5153	3.5394
197902	1.9501	0.4312	1.3683	2.5132	3.5320
197903	1.9532	0.4247	1.3698	2.5182	3.5438
197904	2.0021	0.4655	1.4127	2.5726	3.6036
198001	2.0467	0.5026	1.4510	2.6223	3.6650
198002	2.0419	0.4893	1.4425	2.6221	3.6676
198003	2.0609	0.4982	1.4557	2.6463	3.7025
198004	2.0884	0.5116	1.4779	2.6798	3.7475
198101	2.1001	0.5150	1.4852	2.6961	3.7711
198102	2.1240	0.5297	1.5006	2.7251	3.8088
198103	2.1594	0.5489	1.5285	2.7672	3.8678
198104	2.1425	0.5220	1.5097	2.7525	3.8542
198201	2.1515	0.5194	1.5147	2.7649	3.8773
198202	2.1697	0.5257	1.5260	2.7884	3.9092
198203	2.1601	0.5093	1.5167	2.7840	3.9060
198204	2.1230	0.4683	1.4816	2.7477	3.8612
198301	2.1245	0.4631	1.4786	2.7506	3.8680
198302	2.1325	0.4612	1.4828	2.7616	3.8881
198303	2.1544	0.4758	1.4973	2.7900	3.9233
198304	2.1478	0.4583	1.4888	2.7855	3.9227
198401	2.1455	0.4497	1.4824	2.7875	3.9331
198402	2.1739	0.4646	1.5029	2.8200	3.9759
198403	2.1822	0.4612	1.5078	2.8337	3.9950
198404	2.1645	0.4381	1.4894	2.8182	3.9779
198501	2.1949	0.5340	1.5331	2.8261	3.9502
198502	2.1316	0.5010	1.4941	2.7558	3.8078
198503	2.1566	0.5169	1.5222	2.7849	3.8314
198504	2.2063	0.5210	1.5608	2.8567	3.9108
198601	2.2023	0.5761	1.5744	2.8263	3.8423
198602	2.3252	0.6347	1.6757	2.9704	4.0311
198603	2.3325	0.6119	1.6817	2.9892	4.0422
198604	2.3347	0.6556	1.6983	2.9784	3.9902
198701	2.2433	0.5843	1.6179	2.8846	3.8678
198702	2.3428	0.6486	1.7008	3.0011	4.0032
198703	2.2133	0.5237	1.5805	2.8687	3.8489
198704	2.1974	0.5197	1.5711	2.8526	3.8053
198801	2.1115	0.4518	1.4971	2.7563	3.6790
198802	2.2198	0.5334	1.6007	2.8737	3.8151
198803	2.1937	0.5678	1.5971	2.8269	3.7262
198804	2.3754	0.7139	1.7717	3.0193	3.9293
198901	2.6027	0.8788	1.9737	3.2741	4.2170
198902	2.5636	0.8900	1.9499	3.2191	4.1155
198903	2.7232	0.9700	2.0929	3.4041	4.3256
198904	2.8245	1.0677	2.2069	3.5004	4.4036
199001	2.5997	0.8393	1.9739	3.2860	4.1802
199002	2.6708	0.8993	2.0503	3.3624	4.2279
199003	2.5307	0.8551	1.9518	3.1757	4.0041
199004	2.4014	0.8119	1.8443	3.0169	3.8198
199101	2.4023	0.8048	1.8576	3.0161	3.8096
199102	2.5141	0.8890	1.9697	3.1342	3.9185
199103	2.4888	0.9084	1.9633	3.0931	3.8446
199104	2.2210	0.6240	1.6896	2.8297	3.5980
199201	2.1800	0.5870	1.6473	2.7868	3.5662
199202	2.0975	0.5066	1.5675	2.7007	3.4791
199203	1.8993	0.2844	1.3633	2.5102	3.2989
199204	1.8916	0.3127	1.3655	2.4853	3.2759
199301	1.7834	0.2021	1.2512	2.3825	3.1836
199302	1.6583	0.0013	1.1064	2.2799	3.1233
199303	1.7035	0.1220	1.1766	2.2965	3.0911
199304	1.6469	0.0797	1.1179	2.2402	3.0417
199401	1.7588	0.2716	1.2502	2.3261	3.0822
199402	1.8751	0.3581	1.3609	2.4495	3.2293
199403	1.8282	0.3280	1.3138	2.3977	3.1796
199404	2.0330	0.4724	1.5045	2.6216	3.4242
199501	1.9965	0.4082	1.4615	2.5950	3.4115
199502	1.9121	0.3061	1.3823	2.5166	3.3177
199503	2.0527	0.4321	1.5172	2.6614	3.4732
199504	2.1383	0.5146	1.6029	2.7478	3.5505
199601	2.0397	0.4365	1.5064	2.6463	3.4392
199602	2.1410	0.5751	1.6241	2.7327	3.5023
199603	2.2306	0.6355	1.7120	2.8320	3.5972
199604	2.0364	0.4192	1.5157	2.6407	3.4141
199701	2.1865	0.5838	1.6741	2.7852	3.5465
199702	2.3636	0.7140	1.8456	2.9708	3.7450
199703	2.3582	0.6668	1.8389	2.9781	3.7492
199704	2.4204	0.7255	1.9055	3.0393	3.8038
199801	2.4172	0.6115	1.8655	3.0773	3.9011
199802	2.6279	0.8602	2.1075	3.2568	4.0628
199803	2.4050	0.5635	1.8480	3.0741	3.8981
199804	2.2938	0.4007	1.7421	2.9770	3.7834
199901	2.4751	0.6983	1.9691	3.1094	3.8661
199902	2.4334	0.6830	1.9384	3.0574	3.7949
199903	2.4631	0.7049	1.9702	3.0865	3.8213
199904	2.4497	0.6457	1.9481	3.0862	3.8343
200001	2.5515	0.9036	2.0930	3.1358	3.8299
200002	2.6948	0.9882	2.2235	3.2945	4.0188
200003	2.6601	0.9873	2.2006	3.2495	3.9500
200004	2.6661	0.9609	2.2086	3.2617	3.9640
200101	2.2612	0.4809	1.7652	2.8971	3.6264
200102	2.1703	0.3056	1.6469	2.8323	3.6000
200103	2.2197	0.5375	1.7384	2.8243	3.5566
200104	2.1658	0.5934	1.6987	2.7402	3.4414
200201	2.1634	0.5654	1.6987	2.7431	3.4454
200202	2.0533	0.4421	1.5814	2.6397	3.3515
200203	1.9603	0.3027	1.4590	2.5656	3.3287
200204	1.8447	0.1256	1.3393	2.4689	3.2476
200301	1.7136	-0.0426	1.1890	2.3550	3.1556
200302	1.7385	0.0447	1.2340	2.3614	3.1170
200303	1.7373	0.0928	1.2407	2.3431	3.0856
200304	1.7096	0.0271	1.1964	2.3275	3.1246
200401	1.4886	-0.3830	0.9243	2.1748	3.0304
200402	1.5571	-0.3089	0.9853	2.2424	3.1213
200403	1.4782	-0.4151	0.8959	2.1731	3.0693
200404	1.3813	-0.5310	0.8109	2.0810	2.9326
200501	1.5152	-0.2779	0.9673	2.1753	3.0077
200502	1.4822	-0.2768	0.9455	2.1309	2.9501
200503	1.4790	-0.2460	0.9498	2.1207	2.9230
200504	1.6124	-0.0152	1.1093	2.2186	2.9833
200601	1.7770	0.2835	1.3029	2.3321	3.0668
200602	1.8993	0.4717	1.4420	2.4337	3.1442
200603	1.9143	0.5539	1.4704	2.4264	3.1198
200604	1.9607	0.6211	1.5147	2.4677	3.1678
200701	1.9150	0.6347	1.4841	2.4009	3.0737
200702	1.9607	0.7312	1.5435	2.4281	3.0839
200703	1.9337	0.7451	1.5233	2.3871	3.0251
200704	1.6945	0.3967	1.2638	2.1855	2.8537
200801	1.2770	-0.2692	0.7849	1.8577	2.6074
200802	1.2069	-0.4550	0.6908	1.8272	2.6076
200803	1.2388	-0.4188	0.7153	1.8614	2.6425
200804	1.2867	-0.2591	0.7801	1.8772	2.6354
200901	1.3899	-0.0944	0.9004	1.9556	2.6880
200902	1.4446	0.0166	0.9659	1.9919	2.7077
200903	1.4499	0.0164	0.9632	2.0042	2.7326
200904	1.4072	-0.0910	0.9093	1.9786	2.7369
201001	1.4211	-0.0160	0.9322	1.9755	2.7124
201002	1.3593	-0.1567	0.8541	1.9374	2.6995
201003	1.2489	-0.3823	0.7135	1.8696	2.6810
201004	1.3001	-0.2549	0.7751	1.8952	2.6830
201101	1.3284	-0.1974	0.8087	1.9156	2.6958
201102	1.2454	-0.3964	0.7046	1.8675	2.6861
201103	1.1358	-0.7086	0.5565	1.8295	2.6927
201104	1.1823	-0.4919	0.6234	1.8212	2.6599
201201	1.0596	-0.7758	0.4765	1.7509	2.6281
201202	1.0889	-0.6915	0.5064	1.7642	2.6422
201203	0.9733	-0.8926	0.3700	1.6810	2.5815
201204	1.0057	-0.7856	0.4110	1.6905	2.5797
201301	0.9957	-0.7527	0.4041	1.6682	2.5459
201302	1.0520	-0.6717	0.4628	1.7145	2.5981
201303	1.0564	-0.6239	0.4737	1.7027	2.5748
201304	1.0022	-0.7396	0.4089	1.6698	2.5674
201401	1.0178	-0.6595	0.4276	1.6676	2.5488
201402	0.9547	-0.7856	0.3468	1.6232	2.5487
201403	1.0034	-0.6922	0.4089	1.6568	2.5626
201404	1.0281	-0.6144	0.4370	1.6646	2.5697
201501	1.0189	-0.6260	0.4325	1.6549	2.5484
201502	0.9400	-0.7279	0.3435	1.5825	2.5015
201503	0.8801	-0.8129	0.2680	1.5323	2.4846
201504	0.9464	-0.7296	0.3389	1.5929	2.5360

Panel B: Smoothed Estimates

Date YYYYQQ	Mean	5th Percentile	25th Percentile	75th Percentile	95 Percentile
196001	1.1967	-0.3634	0.6828	1.7831	2.5864
196002	1.1651	-0.3878	0.6528	1.7474	2.5459
196003	1.1079	-0.4350	0.5973	1.6872	2.4829
196004	1.1378	-0.4021	0.6300	1.7147	2.5070
196101	1.1539	-0.3814	0.6482	1.7299	2.5182
196102	1.1701	-0.3591	0.6650	1.7430	2.5314
196103	1.1657	-0.3589	0.6634	1.7366	2.5208
196104	1.1655	-0.3576	0.6633	1.7344	2.5181
196201	1.1280	-0.3908	0.6295	1.6939	2.4767
196202	1.1043	-0.4122	0.6068	1.6684	2.4497
196203	1.1288	-0.3853	0.6326	1.6920	2.4703
196204	1.1109	-0.4002	0.6164	1.6726	2.4475
196301	1.1376	-0.3699	0.6458	1.6972	2.4732
196302	1.1448	-0.3614	0.6550	1.7024	2.4775
196303	1.1421	-0.3562	0.6549	1.6966	2.4730
196304	1.1641	-0.3325	0.6774	1.7159	2.4917
196401	1.1689	-0.3237	0.6846	1.7199	2.4938
196402	1.1673	-0.3223	0.6845	1.7167	2.4914
196403	1.1566	-0.3296	0.6741	1.7058	2.4797
196404	1.1613	-0.3202	0.6793	1.7095	2.4828
196501	1.1874	-0.2881	0.7055	1.7350	2.5066
196502	1.1815	-0.2931	0.6992	1.7275	2.5014
196503	1.1827	-0.2900	0.7017	1.7280	2.5009
196504	1.1987	-0.2725	0.7195	1.7422	2.5159
196601	1.2093	-0.2579	0.7283	1.7518	2.5275
196602	1.2022	-0.2639	0.7211	1.7444	2.5218
196603	1.2479	-0.2181	0.7681	1.7902	2.5699
196604	1.2476	-0.2183	0.7668	1.7915	2.5691
196701	1.2376	-0.2253	0.7552	1.7823	2.5592
196702	1.2404	-0.2243	0.7571	1.7846	2.5644
196703	1.2599	-0.2059	0.7743	1.8060	2.5867
196704	1.2815	-0.1882	0.7948	1.8277	2.6133
196801	1.2652	-0.2021	0.7785	1.8127	2.5974
196802	1.2922	-0.1771	0.8037	1.8394	2.6239
196803	1.2774	-0.1925	0.7885	1.8252	2.6098
196804	1.2843	-0.1835	0.7936	1.8335	2.6204
196901	1.3031	-0.1667	0.8123	1.8525	2.6433
196902	1.3064	-0.1618	0.8150	1.8548	2.6415
196903	1.3421	-0.1275	0.8478	1.8934	2.6827
196904	1.3546	-0.1162	0.8609	1.9070	2.6970
197001	1.3649	-0.1115	0.8701	1.9170	2.7074
197002	1.3777	-0.0972	0.8834	1.9296	2.7223
197003	1.3696	-0.1069	0.8742	1.9223	2.7180
197004	1.3412	-0.1344	0.8449	1.8955	2.6901
197101	1.2997	-0.1815	0.8030	1.8536	2.6491
197102	1.3287	-0.1504	0.8329	1.8835	2.6793
197103	1.3532	-0.1314	0.8557	1.9085	2.7089
197104	1.3328	-0.1500	0.8341	1.8886	2.6902
197201	1.3273	-0.1574	0.8278	1.8835	2.6829
197202	1.3421	-0.1438	0.8410	1.8996	2.6985
197203	1.3431	-0.1409	0.8422	1.9010	2.7003
197204	1.3433	-0.1447	0.8432	1.9038	2.7035
197301	1.3432	-0.1466	0.8420	1.9036	2.7031
197302	1.3347	-0.1575	0.8326	1.8960	2.6995
197303	1.3481	-0.1465	0.8447	1.9105	2.7181
197304	1.3239	-0.1733	0.8192	1.8882	2.6932
197401	1.3204	-0.1830	0.8147	1.8848	2.6899
197402	1.3391	-0.1645	0.8318	1.9047	2.7081
197403	1.3596	-0.1453	0.8529	1.9273	2.7362
197404	1.3544	-0.1490	0.8453	1.9240	2.7289
197501	1.3717	-0.1327	0.8627	1.9409	2.7519
197502	1.3888	-0.1197	0.8770	1.9584	2.7720
197503	1.3985	-0.1106	0.8856	1.9699	2.7854
197504	1.4067	-0.1090	0.8921	1.9783	2.7956
197601	1.4023	-0.1149	0.8879	1.9747	2.7943
197602	1.4196	-0.1023	0.9033	1.9932	2.8128
197603	1.4277	-0.0945	0.9111	2.0032	2.8255
197604	1.4108	-0.1163	0.8930	1.9879	2.8099
197701	1.4302	-0.1027	0.9118	2.0095	2.8322
197702	1.4345	-0.0991	0.9156	2.0134	2.8363
197703	1.4492	-0.0893	0.9293	2.0289	2.8520
197704	1.4693	-0.0742	0.9477	2.0512	2.8743
197801	1.4843	-0.0613	0.9617	2.0682	2.8940
197802	1.4934	-0.0536	0.9687	2.0785	2.9057
197803	1.5103	-0.0375	0.9833	2.0959	2.9260
197804	1.5241	-0.0257	0.9965	2.1115	2.9421
197901	1.5385	-0.0154	1.0098	2.1296	2.9602
197902	1.5317	-0.0259	1.0028	2.1232	2.9522
197903	1.5367	-0.0242	1.0067	2.1289	2.9603
197904	1.5652	-0.0002	1.0334	2.1609	2.9936
198001	1.5952	0.0258	1.0611	2.1932	3.0360
198002	1.5827	0.0082	1.0481	2.1809	3.0194
198003	1.5961	0.0170	1.0590	2.1976	3.0405
198004	1.6095	0.0230	1.0695	2.2130	3.0567
198101	1.6234	0.0317	1.0836	2.2272	3.0771
198102	1.6412	0.0480	1.0988	2.2487	3.1018
198103	1.6643	0.0638	1.1200	2.2728	3.1284
198104	1.6593	0.0542	1.1146	2.2697	3.1241
198201	1.6737	0.0650	1.1263	2.2841	3.1441
198202	1.6846	0.0734	1.1336	2.2978	3.1603
198203	1.6853	0.0725	1.1344	2.3006	3.1589
198204	1.6691	0.0559	1.1203	2.2839	3.1387
198301	1.6780	0.0594	1.1283	2.2944	3.1504
198302	1.6876	0.0671	1.1370	2.3036	3.1633
198303	1.7092	0.0883	1.1556	2.3284	3.1904
198304	1.7087	0.0841	1.1554	2.3289	3.1900
198401	1.7101	0.0842	1.1567	2.3302	3.1884
198402	1.7340	0.1014	1.1794	2.3557	3.2174
198403	1.7488	0.1165	1.1930	2.3727	3.2338
198404	1.7182	0.0896	1.1655	2.3401	3.1939
198501	1.7128	0.0834	1.1598	2.3350	3.1841
198502	1.6974	0.0731	1.1466	2.3198	3.1669
198503	1.6927	0.0689	1.1424	2.3135	3.1584
198504	1.6924	0.0653	1.1426	2.3149	3.1553
198601	1.6843	0.0577	1.1359	2.3062	3.1450
198602	1.6847	0.0563	1.1367	2.3078	3.1416
198603	1.6682	0.0386	1.1213	2.2901	3.1193
198604	1.6765	0.0421	1.1298	2.2998	3.1274
198701	1.6749	0.0413	1.1287	2.2989	3.1233
198702	1.7116	0.0736	1.1617	2.3382	3.1681
198703	1.7125	0.0744	1.1624	2.3396	3.1669
198704	1.7109	0.0712	1.1619	2.3374	3.1621
198801	1.6753	0.0402	1.1313	2.3011	3.1158
198802	1.6877	0.0505	1.1424	2.3132	3.1273
198803	1.7084	0.0687	1.1619	2.3365	3.1509
198804	1.7036	0.0653	1.1578	2.3300	3.1395
198901	1.7411	0.0958	1.1947	2.3696	3.1844
198902	1.7390	0.0963	1.1935	2.3666	3.1796
198903	1.7072	0.0678	1.1650	2.3327	3.1358
198904	1.7102	0.0728	1.1696	2.3351	3.1379
199001	1.7058	0.0678	1.1668	2.3296	3.1273
199002	1.7022	0.0706	1.1645	2.3252	3.1216
199003	1.7003	0.0662	1.1636	2.3227	3.1180
199004	1.7191	0.0840	1.1817	2.3431	3.1393
199101	1.6946	0.0651	1.1585	2.3155	3.1054
199102	1.7048	0.0770	1.1694	2.3264	3.1170
199103	1.6991	0.0700	1.1637	2.3214	3.1036
199104	1.6534	0.0307	1.1231	2.2726	3.0482
199201	1.6406	0.0176	1.1115	2.2590	3.0324
199202	1.6476	0.0242	1.1178	2.2667	3.0400
199203	1.5977	-0.0241	1.0732	2.2148	2.9799
199204	1.5932	-0.0292	1.0684	2.2095	2.9755
199301	1.5577	-0.0627	1.0349	2.1719	2.9341
199302	1.5516	-0.0691	1.0301	2.1664	2.9297
199303	1.5528	-0.0663	1.0311	2.1658	2.9321
199304	1.5381	-0.0837	1.0165	2.1507	2.9143
199401	1.5731	-0.0530	1.0489	2.1878	2.9576
199402	1.6216	-0.0073	1.0946	2.2384	3.0154
199403	1.6001	-0.0272	1.0732	2.2155	2.9891
199404	1.6042	-0.0202	1.0771	2.2199	2.9949
199501	1.5885	-0.0372	1.0622	2.2036	2.9765
199502	1.5808	-0.0466	1.0550	2.1960	2.9683
199503	1.5806	-0.0467	1.0542	2.1938	2.9694
199504	1.5802	-0.0462	1.0564	2.1940	2.9649
199601	1.5727	-0.0537	1.0498	2.1855	2.9556
199602	1.6006	-0.0257	1.0751	2.2149	2.9891
199603	1.5654	-0.0563	1.0432	2.1784	2.9468
199604	1.5375	-0.0836	1.0176	2.1473	2.9133
199701	1.5492	-0.0718	1.0295	2.1610	2.9260
199702	1.5724	-0.0484	1.0513	2.1841	2.9503
199703	1.5449	-0.0718	1.0257	2.1521	2.9207
199704	1.5262	-0.0913	1.0098	2.1317	2.8948
199801	1.5384	-0.0759	1.0219	2.1437	2.9047
199802	1.5337	-0.0753	1.0187	2.1372	2.9001
199803	1.5486	-0.0604	1.0337	2.1517	2.9167
199804	1.4801	-0.1219	0.9704	2.0797	2.8373
199901	1.5136	-0.0888	1.0040	2.1111	2.8754
199902	1.5084	-0.0929	0.9983	2.1053	2.8682
199903	1.5205	-0.0815	1.0124	2.1164	2.8794
199904	1.4993	-0.0986	0.9933	2.0925	2.8542
200001	1.4952	-0.1013	0.9883	2.0882	2.8526
200002	1.4911	-0.1024	0.9849	2.0838	2.8475
200003	1.4884	-0.1037	0.9822	2.0800	2.8440
200004	1.4750	-0.1118	0.9695	2.0650	2.8330
200101	1.4428	-0.1427	0.9386	2.0310	2.7974
200102	1.4004	-0.1831	0.8976	1.9854	2.7533
200103	1.3916	-0.1881	0.8905	1.9748	2.7448
200104	1.3394	-0.2355	0.8398	1.9225	2.6949
200201	1.3449	-0.2275	0.8441	1.9268	2.7003
200202	1.3239	-0.2493	0.8221	1.9073	2.6835
200203	1.2629	-0.3092	0.7584	1.8468	2.6251
200204	1.2516	-0.3224	0.7463	1.8351	2.6152
200301	1.2270	-0.3483	0.7195	1.8119	2.5974
200302	1.2462	-0.3284	0.7376	1.8323	2.6194
200303	1.2652	-0.3123	0.7553	1.8494	2.6442
200304	1.2307	-0.3490	0.7186	1.8154	2.6141
200401	1.1976	-0.3802	0.6846	1.7836	2.5793
200402	1.1955	-0.3804	0.6836	1.7806	2.5793
200403	1.1541	-0.4219	0.6401	1.7392	2.5424
200404	1.1626	-0.4118	0.6483	1.7481	2.5516
200501	1.1807	-0.3948	0.6664	1.7661	2.5725
200502	1.1595	-0.4121	0.6444	1.7451	2.5529
200503	1.1596	-0.4123	0.6430	1.7447	2.5543
200504	1.1818	-0.3926	0.6647	1.7684	2.5827
200601	1.1784	-0.3924	0.6598	1.7654	2.5833
200602	1.1928	-0.3774	0.6733	1.7788	2.6009
200603	1.1869	-0.3838	0.6666	1.7731	2.5989
200604	1.1576	-0.4123	0.6367	1.7434	2.5742
200701	1.1544	-0.4177	0.6324	1.7401	2.5740
200702	1.1538	-0.4140	0.6310	1.7411	2.5781
200703	1.1408	-0.4343	0.6142	1.7291	2.5689
200704	1.1080	-0.4701	0.5779	1.6981	2.5445
200801	1.0462	-0.5367	0.5121	1.6403	2.4881
200802	1.0334	-0.5474	0.4970	1.6285	2.4771
200803	1.0628	-0.5203	0.5254	1.6581	2.5123
200804	1.0265	-0.5628	0.4849	1.6275	2.4826
200901	1.0268	-0.5649	0.4825	1.6280	2.4915
200902	1.0545	-0.5375	0.5088	1.6551	2.5201
200903	1.0592	-0.5335	0.5107	1.6614	2.5319
200904	1.0541	-0.5429	0.5028	1.6585	2.5323
201001	1.0607	-0.5370	0.5084	1.6679	2.5414
201002	1.0569	-0.5457	0.5002	1.6665	2.5452
201003	1.0144	-0.5953	0.4530	1.6278	2.5127
201004	1.0105	-0.6062	0.4458	1.6277	2.5156
201101	1.0265	-0.5928	0.4593	1.6453	2.5364
201102	1.0094	-0.6155	0.4402	1.6306	2.5267
201103	0.9634	-0.6686	0.3885	1.5890	2.4879
201104	0.9446	-0.6988	0.3657	1.5739	2.4764
201201	0.9327	-0.7158	0.3521	1.5641	2.4699
201202	0.9276	-0.7231	0.3445	1.5619	2.4673
201203	0.9141	-0.7409	0.3276	1.5502	2.4590
201204	0.9088	-0.7510	0.3212	1.5463	2.4636
201301	0.9249	-0.7318	0.3341	1.5618	2.4817
201302	0.9286	-0.7340	0.3358	1.5667	2.4889
201303	0.9737	-0.6843	0.3816	1.6102	2.5378
201304	0.9539	-0.7100	0.3599	1.5921	2.5198
201401	0.9708	-0.6933	0.3754	1.6086	2.5384
201402	0.9649	-0.7019	0.3663	1.6036	2.5374
201403	0.9847	-0.6806	0.3848	1.6232	2.5589
201404	0.9663	-0.7015	0.3657	1.6076	2.5466
201501	0.9578	-0.7105	0.3553	1.6012	2.5411
201502	0.9551	-0.7174	0.3503	1.6002	2.5433
201503	0.9489	-0.7254	0.3420	1.5958	2.5396
201504	0.9464	-0.7296	0.3389	1.5929	2.5360

Return to text.

Figure 2: Expected Long-Run Real Federal Funds Rate, No ELB

Note: At each date, filtered estimates use data up through that date to estimate the parameters of the model and the level of the long-run real federal funds rate. Smoothed estimates use data through the entire sample to estimate the parameters and the historical level of the long-run real federal funds rate. For the results in this figure, we do not impose that the shadow rate be less than zero during the period of the ELB. Shaded regions are 50 and 90 percent uncertainty bands. Estimated trends are expressed in annual percentage terms.

Panel A: Filtered Estimates

Date YYYYQQ	Mean	5th Percentile	25th Percentile	75th Percentile	95 Percentile
196001	1.7412	0.1774	1.1830	2.2948	3.3204
196002	1.6910	0.1268	1.1328	2.2427	3.2657
196003	1.6130	0.0458	1.0558	2.1658	3.1849
196004	1.6676	0.0956	1.1090	2.2236	3.2472
196101	1.6667	0.0954	1.1106	2.2186	3.2469
196102	1.6961	0.1256	1.1418	2.2467	3.2731
196103	1.7036	0.1273	1.1446	2.2568	3.2875
196104	1.6776	0.1127	1.1271	2.2252	3.2483
196201	1.6438	0.0765	1.0935	2.1903	3.2120
196202	1.6058	0.0312	1.0533	2.1565	3.1768
196203	1.6442	0.0784	1.0933	2.1923	3.2154
196204	1.6054	0.0408	1.0537	2.1524	3.1733
196301	1.6448	0.0782	1.0937	2.1918	3.2167
196302	1.6673	0.1002	1.1150	2.2156	3.2394
196303	1.6488	0.0854	1.0978	2.1967	3.2192
196304	1.6749	0.1114	1.1251	2.2233	3.2473
196401	1.6822	0.1257	1.1352	2.2280	3.2452
196402	1.6768	0.1316	1.1330	2.2169	3.2314
196403	1.6666	0.1271	1.1232	2.2072	3.2178
196404	1.6648	0.1279	1.1238	2.2032	3.2151
196501	1.6847	0.1626	1.1492	2.2176	3.2198
196502	1.6708	0.1665	1.1410	2.1976	3.1931
196503	1.6741	0.1774	1.1448	2.1981	3.1919
196504	1.7119	0.2217	1.1828	2.2350	3.2270
196601	1.7322	0.2460	1.2033	2.2543	3.2459
196602	1.7142	0.2346	1.1853	2.2356	3.2221
196603	1.7740	0.3052	1.2465	2.2920	3.2798
196604	1.7451	0.2818	1.2205	2.2608	3.2406
196701	1.7225	0.2627	1.2007	2.2369	3.2089
196702	1.7465	0.2957	1.2247	2.2583	3.2284
196703	1.7897	0.3461	1.2680	2.3015	3.2645
196704	1.8311	0.3910	1.3106	2.3425	3.3081
196801	1.8034	0.3671	1.2854	2.3130	3.2751
196802	1.8295	0.4015	1.3123	2.3374	3.2977
196803	1.8169	0.3926	1.3013	2.3209	3.2785
196804	1.8473	0.4268	1.3289	2.3536	3.3114
196901	1.8711	0.4546	1.3533	2.3766	3.3364
196902	1.8573	0.4412	1.3379	2.3629	3.3215
196903	1.9141	0.5025	1.3927	2.4214	3.3832
196904	1.9252	0.5115	1.4023	2.4331	3.3985
197001	1.9283	0.5173	1.4036	2.4333	3.4037
197002	1.9467	0.5359	1.4232	2.4531	3.4222
197003	1.9223	0.5192	1.4010	2.4275	3.3923
197004	1.8747	0.4732	1.3541	2.3772	3.3450
197101	1.8041	0.3975	1.2828	2.3053	3.2741
197102	1.8326	0.4307	1.3109	2.3330	3.3041
197103	1.8486	0.4516	1.3251	2.3487	3.3183
197104	1.8146	0.4140	1.2912	2.3130	3.2900
197201	1.8004	0.3978	1.2755	2.3009	3.2817
197202	1.8121	0.4084	1.2845	2.3129	3.2967
197203	1.8132	0.4109	1.2833	2.3159	3.3015
197204	1.8203	0.4194	1.2883	2.3252	3.3150
197301	1.8279	0.4203	1.2920	2.3345	3.3307
197302	1.8039	0.3917	1.2657	2.3122	3.3095
197303	1.8239	0.4114	1.2823	2.3346	3.3370
197304	1.7927	0.3718	1.2477	2.3061	3.3100
197401	1.7820	0.3544	1.2330	2.2986	3.3087
197402	1.7865	0.3583	1.2366	2.3035	3.3141
197403	1.7973	0.3684	1.2461	2.3158	3.3228
197404	1.7712	0.3381	1.2199	2.2898	3.3013
197501	1.7910	0.3583	1.2382	2.3108	3.3296
197502	1.8123	0.3835	1.2585	2.3330	3.3505
197503	1.8146	0.3793	1.2596	2.3384	3.3559
197504	1.8125	0.3772	1.2574	2.3378	3.3532
197601	1.7925	0.3522	1.2348	2.3191	3.3277
197602	1.8076	0.3621	1.2509	2.3346	3.3424
197603	1.8113	0.3643	1.2518	2.3412	3.3447
197604	1.7803	0.3254	1.2200	2.3128	3.3151
197701	1.8089	0.3524	1.2470	2.3436	3.3539
197702	1.8002	0.3382	1.2361	2.3371	3.3510
197703	1.8110	0.3491	1.2454	2.3497	3.3556
197704	1.8413	0.3720	1.2750	2.3827	3.3946
197801	1.8694	0.3955	1.3002	2.4112	3.4255
197802	1.8816	0.3983	1.3101	2.4277	3.4451
197803	1.9021	0.4152	1.3275	2.4504	3.4686
197804	1.9245	0.4321	1.3484	2.4771	3.4948
197901	1.9571	0.4522	1.3768	2.5153	3.5394
197902	1.9501	0.4312	1.3683	2.5132	3.5320
197903	1.9532	0.4247	1.3698	2.5182	3.5438
197904	2.0021	0.4655	1.4127	2.5726	3.6036
198001	2.0467	0.5026	1.4510	2.6223	3.6650
198002	2.0419	0.4893	1.4425	2.6221	3.6676
198003	2.0609	0.4982	1.4557	2.6463	3.7025
198004	2.0884	0.5116	1.4779	2.6798	3.7475
198101	2.1001	0.5150	1.4852	2.6961	3.7711
198102	2.1240	0.5297	1.5006	2.7251	3.8088
198103	2.1594	0.5489	1.5285	2.7672	3.8678
198104	2.1425	0.5220	1.5097	2.7525	3.8542
198201	2.1515	0.5194	1.5147	2.7649	3.8773
198202	2.1697	0.5257	1.5260	2.7884	3.9092
198203	2.1601	0.5093	1.5167	2.7840	3.9060
198204	2.1230	0.4683	1.4816	2.7477	3.8612
198301	2.1245	0.4631	1.4786	2.7506	3.8680
198302	2.1325	0.4612	1.4828	2.7616	3.8881
198303	2.1544	0.4758	1.4973	2.7900	3.9233
198304	2.1478	0.4583	1.4888	2.7855	3.9227
198401	2.1455	0.4497	1.4824	2.7875	3.9331
198402	2.1739	0.4646	1.5029	2.8200	3.9759
198403	2.1822	0.4612	1.5078	2.8337	3.9950
198404	2.1645	0.4381	1.4894	2.8182	3.9779
198501	2.1949	0.5340	1.5331	2.8261	3.9502
198502	2.1316	0.5010	1.4941	2.7558	3.8078
198503	2.1566	0.5169	1.5222	2.7849	3.8314
198504	2.2063	0.5210	1.5608	2.8567	3.9108
198601	2.2023	0.5761	1.5744	2.8263	3.8423
198602	2.3252	0.6347	1.6757	2.9704	4.0311
198603	2.3325	0.6119	1.6817	2.9892	4.0422
198604	2.3347	0.6556	1.6983	2.9784	3.9902
198701	2.2433	0.5843	1.6179	2.8846	3.8678
198702	2.3428	0.6486	1.7008	3.0011	4.0032
198703	2.2133	0.5237	1.5805	2.8687	3.8489
198704	2.1974	0.5197	1.5711	2.8526	3.8053
198801	2.1115	0.4518	1.4971	2.7563	3.6790
198802	2.2198	0.5334	1.6007	2.8737	3.8151
198803	2.1937	0.5678	1.5971	2.8269	3.7262
198804	2.3754	0.7139	1.7717	3.0193	3.9293
198901	2.6027	0.8788	1.9737	3.2741	4.2170
198902	2.5636	0.8900	1.9499	3.2191	4.1155
198903	2.7232	0.9700	2.0929	3.4041	4.3256
198904	2.8245	1.0677	2.2069	3.5004	4.4036
199001	2.5997	0.8393	1.9739	3.2860	4.1802
199002	2.6708	0.8993	2.0503	3.3624	4.2279
199003	2.5307	0.8551	1.9518	3.1757	4.0041
199004	2.4014	0.8119	1.8443	3.0169	3.8198
199101	2.4023	0.8048	1.8576	3.0161	3.8096
199102	2.5141	0.8890	1.9697	3.1342	3.9185
199103	2.4888	0.9084	1.9633	3.0931	3.8446
199104	2.2210	0.6240	1.6896	2.8297	3.5980
199201	2.1800	0.5870	1.6473	2.7868	3.5662
199202	2.0975	0.5066	1.5675	2.7007	3.4791
199203	1.8993	0.2844	1.3633	2.5102	3.2989
199204	1.8916	0.3127	1.3655	2.4853	3.2759
199301	1.7834	0.2021	1.2512	2.3825	3.1836
199302	1.6583	0.0013	1.1064	2.2799	3.1233
199303	1.7035	0.1220	1.1766	2.2965	3.0911
199304	1.6469	0.0797	1.1179	2.2402	3.0417
199401	1.7588	0.2716	1.2502	2.3261	3.0822
199402	1.8751	0.3581	1.3609	2.4495	3.2293
199403	1.8282	0.3280	1.3138	2.3977	3.1796
199404	2.0330	0.4724	1.5045	2.6216	3.4242
199501	1.9965	0.4082	1.4615	2.5950	3.4115
199502	1.9121	0.3061	1.3823	2.5166	3.3177
199503	2.0527	0.4321	1.5172	2.6614	3.4732
199504	2.1383	0.5146	1.6029	2.7478	3.5505
199601	2.0397	0.4365	1.5064	2.6463	3.4392
199602	2.1410	0.5751	1.6241	2.7327	3.5023
199603	2.2306	0.6355	1.7120	2.8320	3.5972
199604	2.0364	0.4192	1.5157	2.6407	3.4141
199701	2.1865	0.5838	1.6741	2.7852	3.5465
199702	2.3636	0.7140	1.8456	2.9708	3.7450
199703	2.3582	0.6668	1.8389	2.9781	3.7492
199704	2.4204	0.7255	1.9055	3.0393	3.8038
199801	2.4172	0.6115	1.8655	3.0773	3.9011
199802	2.6279	0.8602	2.1075	3.2568	4.0628
199803	2.4050	0.5635	1.8480	3.0741	3.8981
199804	2.2938	0.4007	1.7421	2.9770	3.7834
199901	2.4751	0.6983	1.9691	3.1094	3.8661
199902	2.4334	0.6830	1.9384	3.0574	3.7949
199903	2.4631	0.7049	1.9702	3.0865	3.8213
199904	2.4497	0.6457	1.9481	3.0862	3.8343
200001	2.5515	0.9036	2.0930	3.1358	3.8299
200002	2.6948	0.9882	2.2235	3.2945	4.0188
200003	2.6601	0.9873	2.2006	3.2495	3.9500
200004	2.6661	0.9609	2.2086	3.2617	3.9640
200101	2.2612	0.4809	1.7652	2.8971	3.6264
200102	2.1703	0.3056	1.6469	2.8323	3.6000
200103	2.2197	0.5375	1.7384	2.8243	3.5566
200104	2.1658	0.5934	1.6987	2.7402	3.4414
200201	2.1634	0.5654	1.6987	2.7431	3.4454
200202	2.0533	0.4421	1.5814	2.6397	3.3515
200203	1.9603	0.3027	1.4590	2.5656	3.3287
200204	1.8447	0.1256	1.3393	2.4689	3.2476
200301	1.7136	-0.0426	1.1890	2.3550	3.1556
200302	1.7385	0.0447	1.2340	2.3614	3.1170
200303	1.7373	0.0928	1.2407	2.3431	3.0856
200304	1.7096	0.0271	1.1964	2.3275	3.1246
200401	1.4886	-0.3830	0.9243	2.1748	3.0304
200402	1.5571	-0.3089	0.9853	2.2424	3.1213
200403	1.4782	-0.4151	0.8959	2.1731	3.0693
200404	1.3813	-0.5310	0.8109	2.0810	2.9326
200501	1.5152	-0.2779	0.9673	2.1753	3.0077
200502	1.4822	-0.2768	0.9455	2.1309	2.9501
200503	1.4790	-0.2460	0.9498	2.1207	2.9230
200504	1.6124	-0.0152	1.1093	2.2186	2.9833
200601	1.7770	0.2835	1.3029	2.3321	3.0668
200602	1.8993	0.4717	1.4420	2.4337	3.1442
200603	1.9143	0.5539	1.4704	2.4264	3.1198
200604	1.9607	0.6211	1.5147	2.4677	3.1678
200701	1.9150	0.6347	1.4841	2.4009	3.0737
200702	1.9607	0.7312	1.5435	2.4281	3.0839
200703	1.9337	0.7451	1.5233	2.3871	3.0251
200704	1.6945	0.3967	1.2638	2.1855	2.8537
200801	1.2770	-0.2692	0.7849	1.8577	2.6074
200802	1.2069	-0.4550	0.6908	1.8272	2.6076
200803	1.2388	-0.4188	0.7153	1.8614	2.6425
200804	1.2867	-0.2591	0.7801	1.8772	2.6354
200901	1.3903	-0.1048	0.9002	1.9579	2.6969
200902	1.4422	-0.0017	0.9586	1.9975	2.7226
200903	1.4282	-0.0237	0.9417	1.9837	2.7150
200904	1.3961	-0.0892	0.8982	1.9653	2.7131
201001	1.4206	-0.0153	0.9285	1.9753	2.7175
201002	1.3869	-0.0990	0.8860	1.9584	2.7125
201003	1.2788	-0.3450	0.7424	1.8971	2.7069
201004	1.2851	-0.2909	0.7623	1.8853	2.6685
201101	1.3076	-0.2499	0.7851	1.9042	2.6891
201102	1.2463	-0.4420	0.6983	1.8854	2.7176
201103	1.0810	-0.8179	0.4914	1.7883	2.6758
201104	1.1193	-0.6439	0.5516	1.7886	2.6442
201201	1.0505	-0.7700	0.4734	1.7370	2.6063
201202	1.0661	-0.7084	0.4798	1.7464	2.6244
201203	0.9552	-0.9452	0.3482	1.6717	2.5811
201204	1.0054	-0.7959	0.4060	1.6931	2.5964
201301	1.0134	-0.7352	0.4128	1.6883	2.5789
201302	1.0049	-0.7421	0.4129	1.6738	2.5556
201303	1.0745	-0.5740	0.4973	1.7172	2.5761
201304	1.0449	-0.6460	0.4576	1.6985	2.5786
201401	1.0469	-0.6303	0.4629	1.6952	2.5608
201402	0.9990	-0.6994	0.4071	1.6531	2.5415
201403	1.0471	-0.5635	0.4732	1.6724	2.5337
201404	1.0537	-0.5384	0.4896	1.6722	2.5163
201501	1.0751	-0.4969	0.5164	1.6843	2.5263
201502	0.9679	-0.6222	0.3933	1.5892	2.4585
201503	0.9095	-0.6922	0.3392	1.5326	2.3831
201504	0.9246	-0.6371	0.3626	1.5302	2.3803

Panel B: Smoothed Estimates

Date YYYYQQ	Mean	5th Percentile	25th Percentile	75th Percentile	95 Percentile
196001	1.3755	-0.0053	0.9007	1.8988	2.6286
196002	1.3429	-0.0290	0.8721	1.8630	2.5894
196003	1.2853	-0.0831	0.8169	1.8034	2.5272
196004	1.3168	-0.0435	0.8521	1.8318	2.5550
196101	1.3344	-0.0228	0.8725	1.8467	2.5677
196102	1.3509	-0.0043	0.8907	1.8604	2.5805
196103	1.3489	-0.0008	0.8895	1.8564	2.5730
196104	1.3477	0.0018	0.8905	1.8545	2.5702
196201	1.3108	-0.0319	0.8553	1.8151	2.5271
196202	1.2873	-0.0494	0.8341	1.7910	2.5021
196203	1.3123	-0.0186	0.8616	1.8130	2.5224
196204	1.2942	-0.0319	0.8452	1.7932	2.5000
196301	1.3217	-0.0009	0.8746	1.8181	2.5245
196302	1.3301	0.0117	0.8846	1.8252	2.5283
196303	1.3273	0.0137	0.8845	1.8200	2.5225
196304	1.3505	0.0423	0.9100	1.8420	2.5424
196401	1.3562	0.0506	0.9186	1.8463	2.5454
196402	1.3551	0.0531	0.9176	1.8432	2.5437
196403	1.3446	0.0492	0.9069	1.8322	2.5323
196404	1.3502	0.0565	0.9140	1.8360	2.5345
196501	1.3767	0.0869	0.9402	1.8619	2.5613
196502	1.3716	0.0857	0.9347	1.8553	2.5554
196503	1.3733	0.0873	0.9372	1.8562	2.5570
196504	1.3899	0.1045	0.9550	1.8722	2.5727
196601	1.4008	0.1190	0.9642	1.8851	2.5848
196602	1.3942	0.1141	0.9572	1.8765	2.5789
196603	1.4411	0.1580	1.0036	1.9237	2.6267
196604	1.4414	0.1588	1.0033	1.9248	2.6274
196701	1.4323	0.1496	0.9925	1.9162	2.6193
196702	1.4360	0.1568	0.9968	1.9199	2.6261
196703	1.4570	0.1741	1.0172	1.9423	2.6499
196704	1.4801	0.1915	1.0380	1.9680	2.6756
196801	1.4647	0.1749	1.0228	1.9533	2.6604
196802	1.4922	0.2031	1.0482	1.9827	2.6887
196803	1.4778	0.1896	1.0332	1.9679	2.6758
196804	1.4855	0.1966	1.0398	1.9755	2.6862
196901	1.5056	0.2129	1.0575	1.9968	2.7088
196902	1.5098	0.2167	1.0617	2.0023	2.7133
196903	1.5468	0.2513	1.0962	2.0403	2.7555
196904	1.5598	0.2649	1.1086	2.0531	2.7680
197001	1.5710	0.2755	1.1208	2.0652	2.7843
197002	1.5846	0.2876	1.1330	2.0804	2.8011
197003	1.5769	0.2805	1.1250	2.0718	2.7936
197004	1.5490	0.2551	1.0964	2.0442	2.7663
197101	1.5078	0.2114	1.0539	2.0033	2.7229
197102	1.5377	0.2397	1.0831	2.0336	2.7563
197103	1.5635	0.2624	1.1097	2.0608	2.7840
197104	1.5438	0.2410	1.0890	2.0413	2.7633
197201	1.5406	0.2332	1.0852	2.0392	2.7609
197202	1.5569	0.2479	1.1005	2.0568	2.7803
197203	1.5588	0.2481	1.1015	2.0592	2.7830
197204	1.5603	0.2491	1.1023	2.0619	2.7867
197301	1.5602	0.2477	1.1022	2.0622	2.7892
197302	1.5525	0.2371	1.0931	2.0555	2.7821
197303	1.5664	0.2472	1.1048	2.0716	2.7949
197304	1.5417	0.2203	1.0804	2.0480	2.7710
197401	1.5383	0.2159	1.0767	2.0445	2.7701
197402	1.5574	0.2313	1.0929	2.0661	2.7924
197403	1.5774	0.2490	1.1134	2.0860	2.8128
197404	1.5719	0.2445	1.1057	2.0812	2.8107
197501	1.5894	0.2601	1.1234	2.1000	2.8339
197502	1.6071	0.2740	1.1393	2.1197	2.8556
197503	1.6172	0.2806	1.1465	2.1302	2.8648
197504	1.6266	0.2878	1.1562	2.1406	2.8776
197601	1.6227	0.2815	1.1512	2.1375	2.8754
197602	1.6394	0.2939	1.1655	2.1550	2.8947
197603	1.6476	0.3004	1.1749	2.1636	2.9053
197604	1.6306	0.2837	1.1573	2.1492	2.8883
197701	1.6508	0.2955	1.1754	2.1710	2.9139
197702	1.6557	0.2962	1.1784	2.1768	2.9211
197703	1.6713	0.3092	1.1944	2.1947	2.9417
197704	1.6922	0.3286	1.2129	2.2174	2.9655
197801	1.7073	0.3366	1.2259	2.2340	2.9870
197802	1.7168	0.3399	1.2344	2.2469	2.9964
197803	1.7345	0.3544	1.2500	2.2663	3.0205
197804	1.7482	0.3642	1.2618	2.2811	3.0376
197901	1.7626	0.3727	1.2757	2.2962	3.0586
197902	1.7558	0.3626	1.2679	2.2900	3.0523
197903	1.7610	0.3674	1.2719	2.2969	3.0595
197904	1.7895	0.3882	1.2978	2.3284	3.0976
198001	1.8199	0.4116	1.3230	2.3631	3.1392
198002	1.8063	0.3925	1.3110	2.3491	3.1233
198003	1.8195	0.4005	1.3212	2.3652	3.1406
198004	1.8324	0.4103	1.3311	2.3799	3.1591
198101	1.8459	0.4220	1.3435	2.3942	3.1775
198102	1.8639	0.4341	1.3579	2.4141	3.2049
198103	1.8859	0.4532	1.3777	2.4409	3.2342
198104	1.8796	0.4422	1.3708	2.4344	3.2283
198201	1.8936	0.4537	1.3831	2.4504	3.2480
198202	1.9028	0.4589	1.3908	2.4615	3.2596
198203	1.9020	0.4545	1.3886	2.4609	3.2606
198204	1.8848	0.4389	1.3730	2.4436	3.2408
198301	1.8926	0.4405	1.3799	2.4521	3.2484
198302	1.9007	0.4431	1.3868	2.4621	3.2607
198303	1.9214	0.4598	1.4034	2.4859	3.2910
198304	1.9196	0.4571	1.4041	2.4842	3.2873
198401	1.9190	0.4536	1.4040	2.4836	3.2851
198402	1.9419	0.4719	1.4243	2.5092	3.3149
198403	1.9557	0.4806	1.4361	2.5235	3.3329
198404	1.9231	0.4478	1.4089	2.4903	3.2853
198501	1.9154	0.4413	1.4022	2.4819	3.2733
198502	1.8989	0.4260	1.3879	2.4665	3.2482
198503	1.8922	0.4176	1.3838	2.4586	3.2397
198504	1.8900	0.4142	1.3823	2.4578	3.2327
198601	1.8806	0.4053	1.3745	2.4479	3.2181
198602	1.8797	0.4039	1.3740	2.4466	3.2143
198603	1.8621	0.3882	1.3585	2.4292	3.1895
198604	1.8689	0.3941	1.3655	2.4362	3.1949
198701	1.8665	0.3915	1.3648	2.4355	3.1879
198702	1.9020	0.4213	1.3978	2.4742	3.2329
198703	1.9018	0.4232	1.3986	2.4744	3.2300
198704	1.8992	0.4184	1.3966	2.4713	3.2236
198801	1.8615	0.3873	1.3637	2.4305	3.1679
198802	1.8711	0.3976	1.3741	2.4405	3.1747
198803	1.8897	0.4115	1.3910	2.4611	3.1994
198804	1.8832	0.4084	1.3868	2.4535	3.1866
198901	1.9180	0.4400	1.4199	2.4900	3.2304
198902	1.9134	0.4356	1.4160	2.4855	3.2216
198903	1.8786	0.4038	1.3870	2.4481	3.1701
198904	1.8782	0.4068	1.3884	2.4458	3.1632
199001	1.8711	0.4008	1.3837	2.4361	3.1502
199002	1.8654	0.3982	1.3789	2.4281	3.1380
199003	1.8612	0.3934	1.3757	2.4242	3.1295
199004	1.8791	0.4130	1.3928	2.4425	3.1526
199101	1.8538	0.3903	1.3709	2.4155	3.1151
199102	1.8637	0.3990	1.3829	2.4241	3.1258
199103	1.8560	0.3918	1.3760	2.4154	3.1128
199104	1.8095	0.3507	1.3344	2.3686	3.0527
199201	1.7959	0.3377	1.3217	2.3531	3.0337
199202	1.8025	0.3428	1.3271	2.3606	3.0422
199203	1.7527	0.2962	1.2804	2.3094	2.9811
199204	1.7468	0.2897	1.2766	2.3010	2.9715
199301	1.7105	0.2570	1.2425	2.2640	2.9264
199302	1.7037	0.2503	1.2353	2.2577	2.9192
199303	1.7039	0.2495	1.2374	2.2574	2.9202
199304	1.6885	0.2355	1.2236	2.2412	2.8991
199401	1.7234	0.2671	1.2561	2.2769	2.9416
199402	1.7718	0.3114	1.3011	2.3293	3.0020
199403	1.7498	0.2894	1.2799	2.3059	2.9768
199404	1.7521	0.2939	1.2834	2.3078	2.9779
199501	1.7347	0.2766	1.2661	2.2897	2.9555
199502	1.7262	0.2658	1.2572	2.2806	2.9494
199503	1.7257	0.2691	1.2561	2.2812	2.9463
199504	1.7244	0.2686	1.2563	2.2793	2.9447
199601	1.7156	0.2611	1.2486	2.2702	2.9342
199602	1.7431	0.2871	1.2730	2.2988	2.9637
199603	1.7077	0.2560	1.2436	2.2595	2.9235
199604	1.6786	0.2301	1.2167	2.2273	2.8907
199701	1.6897	0.2403	1.2278	2.2388	2.9042
199702	1.7125	0.2620	1.2485	2.2612	2.9272
199703	1.6845	0.2388	1.2244	2.2305	2.8923
199704	1.6638	0.2219	1.2066	2.2076	2.8683
199801	1.6746	0.2323	1.2173	2.2185	2.8775
199802	1.6684	0.2296	1.2124	2.2098	2.8681
199803	1.6833	0.2455	1.2269	2.2243	2.8854
199804	1.6132	0.1810	1.1624	2.1499	2.8045
199901	1.6450	0.2194	1.1944	2.1807	2.8361
199902	1.6393	0.2156	1.1909	2.1732	2.8297
199903	1.6506	0.2246	1.2019	2.1848	2.8433
199904	1.6276	0.2078	1.1812	2.1589	2.8142
200001	1.6221	0.2036	1.1758	2.1533	2.8107
200002	1.6170	0.1986	1.1705	2.1459	2.8062
200003	1.6139	0.2017	1.1680	2.1427	2.8035
200004	1.5997	0.1887	1.1557	2.1262	2.7855
200101	1.5663	0.1567	1.1220	2.0902	2.7525
200102	1.5229	0.1151	1.0817	2.0463	2.7065
200103	1.5126	0.1084	1.0720	2.0346	2.6996
200104	1.4596	0.0577	1.0175	1.9807	2.6437
200201	1.4646	0.0621	1.0233	1.9847	2.6517
200202	1.4451	0.0441	1.0018	1.9650	2.6363
200203	1.3851	-0.0139	0.9412	1.9054	2.5808
200204	1.3730	-0.0266	0.9276	1.8933	2.5715
200301	1.3500	-0.0538	0.9030	1.8717	2.5540
200302	1.3705	-0.0377	0.9227	1.8935	2.5751
200303	1.3895	-0.0167	0.9394	1.9130	2.5989
200304	1.3559	-0.0533	0.9052	1.8806	2.5684
200401	1.3215	-0.0854	0.8677	1.8466	2.5382
200402	1.3173	-0.0868	0.8635	1.8425	2.5378
200403	1.2763	-0.1312	0.8189	1.8032	2.4987
200404	1.2838	-0.1214	0.8261	1.8104	2.5140
200501	1.3014	-0.1051	0.8414	1.8277	2.5340
200502	1.2800	-0.1259	0.8193	1.8082	2.5132
200503	1.2796	-0.1271	0.8177	1.8068	2.5172
200504	1.3014	-0.1072	0.8387	1.8293	2.5437
200601	1.2976	-0.1094	0.8338	1.8265	2.5410
200602	1.3102	-0.0974	0.8455	1.8390	2.5585
200603	1.3030	-0.1044	0.8369	1.8324	2.5574
200604	1.2712	-0.1374	0.8036	1.8014	2.5268
200701	1.2646	-0.1446	0.7961	1.7949	2.5240
200702	1.2619	-0.1497	0.7903	1.7926	2.5251
200703	1.2467	-0.1681	0.7739	1.7798	2.5154
200704	1.2114	-0.2026	0.7338	1.7476	2.4882
200801	1.1457	-0.2764	0.6644	1.6855	2.4318
200802	1.1283	-0.2941	0.6439	1.6700	2.4210
200803	1.1548	-0.2708	0.6685	1.6967	2.4507
200804	1.1137	-0.3198	0.6224	1.6599	2.4176
200901	1.1104	-0.3232	0.6165	1.6594	2.4215
200902	1.1354	-0.3001	0.6388	1.6842	2.4482
200903	1.1362	-0.3036	0.6371	1.6867	2.4581
200904	1.1273	-0.3179	0.6247	1.6788	2.4540
201001	1.1299	-0.3186	0.6251	1.6854	2.4654
201002	1.1215	-0.3304	0.6132	1.6800	2.4615
201003	1.0746	-0.3878	0.5602	1.6389	2.4248
201004	1.0659	-0.4038	0.5470	1.6330	2.4270
201101	1.0775	-0.3977	0.5570	1.6474	2.4448
201102	1.0555	-0.4284	0.5326	1.6292	2.4317
201103	1.0052	-0.4912	0.4736	1.5853	2.3915
201104	0.9824	-0.5209	0.4485	1.5665	2.3762
201201	0.9663	-0.5450	0.4286	1.5527	2.3673
201202	0.9568	-0.5631	0.4145	1.5465	2.3656
201203	0.9395	-0.5871	0.3942	1.5331	2.3560
201204	0.9303	-0.6024	0.3824	1.5269	2.3506
201301	0.9419	-0.5920	0.3916	1.5389	2.3674
201302	0.9416	-0.5946	0.3901	1.5402	2.3679
201303	0.9823	-0.5478	0.4310	1.5775	2.4104
201304	0.9586	-0.5778	0.4044	1.5560	2.3904
201401	0.9711	-0.5654	0.4179	1.5700	2.4057
201402	0.9614	-0.5825	0.4070	1.5622	2.4010
201403	0.9773	-0.5662	0.4250	1.5779	2.4179
201404	0.9563	-0.5967	0.4006	1.5578	2.4025
201501	0.9441	-0.6104	0.3871	1.5482	2.3914
201502	0.9394	-0.6207	0.3785	1.5455	2.3918
201503	0.9317	-0.6324	0.3701	1.5383	2.3876
201504	0.9246	-0.6371	0.3626	1.5302	2.3803

Return to text.

Figure 3: Estimated Shadow Rate

Note: At each date, the estimates of the shadow rate shown in both panels use data through the entire sample to estimate the parameters and the historical level of the shadow rate. Prior to 2008, the shadow rate in our model is equal to the federal funds rate. Shaded regions are 50 and 90 percent uncertainty bands. Estimated shadow rates are expressed in annual percentage terms.

Panel A: With Censoring Constraint

Date YYYYQQ	Mean	5th Percentile	25th Percentile	75th Percentile	95 Percentile
200701	5.1212	5.1212	5.1212	5.1212	5.1212
200702	5.1191	5.1191	5.1191	5.1191	5.1191
200703	4.9498	4.9498	4.9498	4.9498	4.9498
200704	4.3975	4.3975	4.3975	4.3975	4.3975
200801	3.1319	3.1319	3.1319	3.1319	3.1319
200802	2.0633	2.0633	2.0633	2.0633	2.0633
200803	1.9221	1.9221	1.9221	1.9221	1.9221
200804	0.5041	0.5041	0.5041	0.5041	0.5041
200901	-1.1982	-1.8682	-1.4539	-0.9288	-0.5562
200902	-2.1746	-3.1941	-2.5806	-1.7648	-1.1551
200903	-2.4613	-3.6396	-2.9379	-1.9823	-1.2723
200904	-2.6129	-3.8794	-3.1267	-2.0946	-1.3409
201001	-2.4058	-3.7130	-2.9325	-1.8676	-1.1038
201002	-2.1210	-3.4332	-2.6508	-1.5793	-0.8149
201003	-2.3077	-3.6197	-2.8297	-1.7689	-1.0250
201004	-2.4787	-3.7855	-2.9877	-1.9446	-1.2212
201101	-2.0103	-3.3097	-2.5204	-1.4711	-0.7698
201102	-1.8054	-3.1345	-2.3348	-1.2451	-0.5169
201103	-2.1525	-3.4820	-2.6788	-1.5994	-0.8656
201104	-2.3485	-3.6360	-2.8477	-1.8234	-1.1122
201201	-2.3781	-3.6289	-2.8608	-1.8727	-1.1756
201202	-2.4378	-3.6475	-2.9045	-1.9532	-1.2715
201203	-2.5396	-3.7161	-2.9915	-2.0694	-1.4055
201204	-2.5126	-3.6540	-2.9511	-2.0547	-1.4182
201301	-2.4136	-3.5291	-2.8393	-1.9680	-1.3491
201302	-2.3977	-3.4929	-2.8131	-1.9593	-1.3579
201303	-1.8799	-2.9738	-2.2944	-1.4417	-0.8464
201304	-1.5899	-2.6296	-1.9733	-1.1705	-0.6468
201401	-1.2241	-2.2166	-1.5776	-0.8215	-0.3668
201402	-0.9813	-1.9288	-1.2972	-0.5955	-0.2268
201403	-0.8175	-1.7319	-1.1086	-0.4463	-0.1375
201404	-0.8345	-1.7499	-1.1156	-0.4695	-0.1608
201501	-0.8973	-1.8459	-1.1839	-0.5271	-0.2039
201502	-0.8383	-1.7689	-1.1104	-0.4756	-0.1744
201503	-0.6761	-1.5401	-0.9051	-0.3471	-0.1096
201504	-0.4894	-1.3152	-0.6848	-0.1754	-0.0348

Panel B: Without Censoring Constraint

Date YYYYQQ	Mean	5th Percentile	25th Percentile	75th Percentile	95 Percentile
200701	5.1212	5.1212	5.1212	5.1212	5.1212
200702	5.1191	5.1191	5.1191	5.1191	5.1191
200703	4.9498	4.9498	4.9498	4.9498	4.9498
200704	4.3975	4.3975	4.3975	4.3975	4.3975
200801	3.1319	3.1319	3.1319	3.1319	3.1319
200802	2.0633	2.0633	2.0633	2.0633	2.0633
200803	1.9221	1.9221	1.9221	1.9221	1.9221
200804	0.5041	0.5041	0.5041	0.5041	0.5041
200901	-1.1175	-1.7646	-1.3691	-0.8586	-0.4893
200902	-2.0393	-3.0365	-2.4455	-1.6358	-1.0343
200903	-2.3086	-3.4759	-2.7926	-1.8347	-1.1140
200904	-2.4267	-3.6894	-2.9469	-1.9170	-1.1283
201001	-2.1571	-3.4653	-2.6981	-1.6313	-0.8112
201002	-1.8189	-3.1297	-2.3656	-1.2886	-0.4618
201003	-1.9433	-3.2497	-2.4814	-1.4162	-0.5950
201004	-2.0379	-3.3491	-2.5736	-1.5113	-0.6921
201101	-1.5213	-2.8410	-2.0675	-0.9918	-0.1512
201102	-1.3219	-2.6736	-1.8867	-0.7791	0.0997
201103	-1.6510	-2.9936	-2.2088	-1.1123	-0.2431
201104	-1.7876	-3.0947	-2.3174	-1.2660	-0.4532
201201	-1.7697	-3.0453	-2.2849	-1.2596	-0.4749
201202	-1.8005	-3.0446	-2.3019	-1.3037	-0.5411
201203	-1.8743	-3.0903	-2.3593	-1.3875	-0.6488
201204	-1.8194	-3.0196	-2.2922	-1.3448	-0.6285
201301	-1.6951	-2.8772	-2.1618	-1.2240	-0.5236
201302	-1.6461	-2.8242	-2.1093	-1.1759	-0.4863
201303	-1.0955	-2.2853	-1.5678	-0.6224	0.0812
201304	-0.7855	-1.9352	-1.2403	-0.3267	0.3496
201401	-0.3655	-1.5033	-0.8140	0.0878	0.7579
201402	-0.0599	-1.1959	-0.5030	0.3925	1.0503
201403	0.1573	-0.9758	-0.2832	0.6044	1.2653
201404	0.2059	-0.9523	-0.2339	0.6605	1.3172
201501	0.2149	-0.9929	-0.2318	0.6871	1.3440
201502	0.3475	-0.8843	-0.1023	0.8244	1.4870
201503	0.5443	-0.6570	0.1061	1.0098	1.6631
201504	0.7211	-0.4565	0.2890	1.1773	1.8259

Return to text.

Figure 4: Macroeconomic Data and Estimated Trends

Note: Raw data are shown as the red solid line. At each date, we use data through the entire sample to estimate the parameters and the historical levels of the trends shown. Shaded regions are 50 and 90 percent uncertainty bands. Inflation and interest rates, along with their estimated trends, are expressed in annual percentage terms. Vertical dotted lines indicate peaks and troughs associated with recession, as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, http://www.nber.org/cycles.html Leaving the Board. .

Panel A: Federal Funds Rate

Date YYYYQQ	Data	Mean	5th Percentile	25th Percentile	75th Percentile	95 Percentile
196001	3.8560	3.0814	1.9017	2.6803	3.5015	4.1719
196002	3.6284	3.0022	1.8404	2.6090	3.4121	4.0864
196003	2.8952	2.7932	1.6418	2.4022	3.1968	3.8818
196004	2.2702	2.8924	1.7474	2.5053	3.2929	3.9741
196101	1.9681	2.9163	1.7810	2.5327	3.3102	3.9953
196102	1.7187	2.9583	1.8275	2.5747	3.3477	4.0356
196103	1.6654	2.9736	1.8478	2.5901	3.3603	4.0551
196104	2.3685	2.9830	1.8633	2.6002	3.3667	4.0678
196201	2.4286	2.8871	1.7743	2.5072	3.2680	3.9678
196202	2.5737	2.8022	1.6903	2.4196	3.1826	3.8921
196203	2.8054	2.8748	1.7635	2.4938	3.2527	3.9674
196204	2.8821	2.8042	1.6965	2.4213	3.1810	3.9029
196301	2.9225	2.9004	1.7971	2.5172	3.2760	4.0071
196302	2.9214	2.9319	1.8310	2.5471	3.3055	4.0412
196303	3.2724	2.9802	1.8840	2.5964	3.3525	4.0915
196304	3.3931	3.0904	1.9941	2.7049	3.4638	4.2039
196401	3.4057	3.1343	2.0347	2.7482	3.5083	4.2545
196402	3.4285	3.1179	2.0193	2.7316	3.4941	4.2382
196403	3.3981	3.1038	1.9988	2.7147	3.4847	4.2221
196404	3.5127	3.1568	2.0467	2.7658	3.5391	4.2778
196501	3.9002	3.3218	2.2088	2.9269	3.7112	4.4427
196502	3.9984	3.3778	2.2652	2.9795	3.7736	4.5066
196503	3.9966	3.4414	2.3211	3.0422	3.8421	4.5690
196504	4.0861	3.6022	2.4795	3.2038	4.0050	4.7189
196601	4.4581	3.8141	2.6897	3.4160	4.2211	4.9238
196602	4.7968	3.8698	2.7417	3.4682	4.2837	4.9830
196603	5.2694	4.1618	3.0277	3.7567	4.5802	5.2717
196604	5.4107	4.1726	3.0284	3.7627	4.5981	5.2929
196701	4.7069	4.1003	2.9351	3.6793	4.5383	5.2382
196702	3.9147	4.2194	3.0405	3.7970	4.6621	5.3576
196703	3.8180	4.5017	3.3215	4.0808	4.9481	5.6319
196704	4.0881	4.7131	3.5183	4.2873	5.1659	5.8497
196801	4.6813	4.6753	3.4817	4.2510	5.1298	5.8109
196802	5.8121	4.8645	3.6765	4.4420	5.3170	5.9951
196803	5.7764	4.7898	3.6012	4.3668	5.2417	5.9199
196804	5.7496	4.8364	3.6447	4.4146	5.2903	5.9665
196901	6.3608	4.9270	3.7265	4.5048	5.3829	6.0577
196902	8.0035	4.9964	3.8058	4.5801	5.4442	6.1181
196903	8.6004	5.2427	4.0421	4.8283	5.6942	6.3690
196904	8.5642	5.3239	4.1146	4.9107	5.7768	6.4477
197001	8.2123	5.4209	4.2094	5.0077	5.8751	6.5470
197002	7.5880	5.5385	4.3190	5.1245	5.9935	6.6693
197003	6.4955	5.5116	4.2948	5.1078	5.9625	6.6258
197004	5.4188	5.3964	4.1904	4.9990	5.8426	6.4913
197101	3.7900	5.0801	3.8612	4.6729	5.5353	6.1930
197102	4.4660	5.3086	4.1100	4.9153	5.7525	6.4027
197103	5.3309	5.4602	4.2598	5.0684	5.9004	6.5549
197104	4.6384	5.2806	4.0784	4.8854	5.7232	6.3866
197201	3.4875	5.2655	4.0543	4.8646	5.7125	6.3817
197202	4.2115	5.3485	4.1338	4.9464	5.7954	6.4705
197203	4.6324	5.3913	4.1739	4.9853	5.8397	6.5260
197204	5.0175	5.4278	4.2003	5.0123	5.8830	6.5852
197301	6.3334	5.5174	4.2765	5.0925	5.9801	6.6983
197302	7.5279	5.5697	4.2836	5.1256	6.0477	6.8054
197303	10.0368	5.7648	4.4426	5.3001	6.2556	7.0573
197304	9.5281	5.6947	4.3402	5.2183	6.1984	7.0103
197401	8.9235	5.7923	4.3927	5.2957	6.3133	7.1551
197402	10.6622	5.9876	4.5409	5.4768	6.5248	7.3898
197403	11.4209	6.1662	4.6737	5.6444	6.7163	7.6076
197404	8.9332	6.1129	4.6073	5.6005	6.6690	7.5240
197501	6.1145	6.1827	4.6720	5.6744	6.7445	7.5802
197502	5.2768	6.2483	4.7141	5.7435	6.8176	7.6382
197503	5.9738	6.3378	4.7725	5.8375	6.9135	7.7225
197504	5.2699	6.3646	4.8061	5.8851	6.9369	7.6974
197601	4.7136	6.2638	4.7079	5.8011	6.8314	7.5569
197602	5.0649	6.3712	4.7811	5.9147	6.9445	7.6564
197603	5.1486	6.4844	4.8657	6.0276	7.0645	7.7776
197604	4.7592	6.3903	4.7819	5.9409	6.9662	7.6714
197701	4.5553	6.5548	4.9300	6.1093	7.1327	7.8310
197702	5.0289	6.5575	4.9185	6.1125	7.1387	7.8279
197703	5.6535	6.6259	4.9739	6.1843	7.2111	7.9026
197704	6.3081	6.7616	5.0762	6.3197	7.3549	8.0429
197801	6.5409	6.8917	5.1748	6.4496	7.4913	8.1812
197802	7.0297	6.9811	5.2255	6.5332	7.5919	8.2860
197803	7.7838	7.0836	5.2900	6.6238	7.7072	8.4142
197804	9.1465	7.1999	5.3517	6.7264	7.8411	8.5790
197901	9.5976	7.3508	5.4426	6.8529	8.0157	8.7885
197902	9.6963	7.3660	5.4120	6.8499	8.0491	8.8518
197903	10.3820	7.3984	5.4099	6.8660	8.0945	8.9164
197904	12.7339	7.6904	5.5823	7.1071	8.4290	9.3337
198001	14.0329	8.0537	5.7726	7.3649	8.8684	9.9645
198002	11.9283	7.8062	5.6159	7.1810	8.5871	9.5392
198003	9.3701	7.8598	5.6161	7.2072	8.6701	9.6360
198004	14.7150	7.9400	5.6376	7.2534	8.7744	9.7980
198101	15.3541	7.9795	5.6774	7.2786	8.8284	9.8618
198102	16.3707	7.9546	5.6567	7.2499	8.8068	9.8388
198103	16.2071	8.0792	5.7050	7.3312	8.9629	10.0740
198104	12.7411	7.8941	5.5678	7.1756	8.7600	9.7879
198201	13.2846	7.9441	5.5806	7.2061	8.8294	9.8897
198202	13.5528	7.9901	5.6023	7.2292	8.8867	9.9906
198203	10.4475	8.0037	5.5846	7.2280	8.9197	10.0470
198204	8.8779	7.6827	5.3460	6.9545	8.5608	9.5965
198301	8.3031	7.6558	5.3127	6.9165	8.5423	9.5765
198302	8.4366	7.6928	5.3537	6.9482	8.5792	9.6190
198303	9.0372	7.8877	5.5141	7.1194	8.7902	9.8781
198304	9.0116	7.7086	5.4012	6.9643	8.5887	9.6208
198401	9.2475	7.6572	5.3832	6.9215	8.5309	9.5446
198402	10.0340	7.8389	5.5281	7.0778	8.7310	9.7939
198403	10.7888	7.9093	5.5943	7.1372	8.8053	9.8885
198404	8.8583	7.4777	5.3134	6.7765	8.3117	9.2644
198501	8.1351	7.4050	5.2951	6.7304	8.2141	9.1394
198502	7.6261	7.0981	5.0868	6.4679	7.8629	8.7257
198503	7.6044	6.8826	4.9563	6.2818	7.6148	8.4342
198504	7.7928	6.6997	4.8387	6.1237	7.4061	8.1929
198601	7.5357	6.4541	4.6427	5.8957	7.1404	7.9085
198602	6.6896	6.2726	4.4894	5.7234	6.9462	7.7069
198603	6.0243	6.1073	4.3514	5.5722	6.7652	7.5144
198604	6.0782	6.1898	4.4734	5.6724	6.8304	7.5616
198701	6.0366	6.2186	4.5461	5.7161	6.8403	7.5510
198702	6.4382	6.5227	4.8794	6.0346	7.1328	7.8198
198703	6.6158	6.5069	4.8878	6.0323	7.1057	7.7744
198704	6.6908	6.4568	4.8607	5.9908	7.0461	7.6994
198801	6.4532	6.1483	4.5751	5.6887	6.7273	7.3722
198802	6.9106	6.2371	4.6775	5.7827	6.8124	7.4501
198803	7.6808	6.3523	4.8148	5.9023	6.9219	7.5495
198804	8.1289	6.2404	4.7290	5.7975	6.8007	7.4235
198901	9.0265	6.4369	4.9311	5.9954	6.9939	7.6121
198902	9.2814	6.3638	4.8843	5.9288	6.9107	7.5219
198903	8.6944	6.0489	4.6039	5.6215	6.5829	7.1855
198904	8.2634	6.0491	4.6212	5.6275	6.5759	7.1775
199001	7.9255	6.0447	4.6320	5.6256	6.5657	7.1625
199002	7.9175	5.9790	4.5803	5.5624	6.4962	7.0900
199003	7.8443	5.9469	4.5568	5.5320	6.4588	7.0557
199004	7.4582	5.9989	4.6174	5.5840	6.5081	7.1042
199101	6.2321	5.7282	4.3605	5.3167	6.2313	6.8273
199102	5.6986	5.7252	4.3648	5.3146	6.2243	6.8225
199103	5.4916	5.6838	4.3309	5.2754	6.1804	6.7776
199104	4.7060	5.4381	4.0958	5.0312	5.9278	6.5285
199201	3.9454	5.3592	4.0210	4.9521	5.8473	6.4559
199202	3.7046	5.3931	4.0596	4.9876	5.8778	6.4855
199203	3.2073	5.1215	3.8072	4.7178	5.6010	6.2091
199204	2.9897	5.0718	3.7647	4.6666	5.5500	6.1672
199301	2.9970	4.8289	3.5249	4.4214	5.3054	5.9241
199302	2.9532	4.7294	3.4263	4.3205	5.2062	5.8235
199303	3.0119	4.6274	3.3258	4.2180	5.1037	5.7243
199304	2.9445	4.4872	3.1821	4.0748	4.9636	5.5859
199401	3.1589	4.5605	3.2555	4.1481	5.0371	5.6591
199402	3.8625	4.7545	3.4430	4.3428	5.2343	5.8544
199403	4.3877	4.6478	3.3343	4.2363	5.1279	5.7474
199404	5.0388	4.6016	3.2816	4.1893	5.0848	5.7047
199501	5.6407	4.4987	3.1788	4.0856	4.9829	5.5971
199502	5.8449	4.4481	3.1244	4.0329	4.9315	5.5473
199503	5.6354	4.4100	3.0928	3.9952	4.8928	5.5078
199504	5.5619	4.4010	3.0903	3.9865	4.8809	5.4931
199601	5.2317	4.3860	3.0816	3.9719	4.8632	5.4802
199602	5.1111	4.4945	3.1873	4.0791	4.9714	5.5926
199603	5.1702	4.3185	3.0202	3.9054	4.7933	5.4100
199604	5.1462	4.1911	2.8916	3.7792	4.6643	5.2872
199701	5.1439	4.1582	2.8552	3.7452	4.6324	5.2573
199702	5.3751	4.1606	2.8569	3.7434	4.6353	5.2679
199703	5.3869	4.0017	2.6928	3.5830	4.4781	5.1119
199704	5.3611	3.8879	2.5795	3.4677	4.3641	5.0006
199801	5.3724	3.8858	2.5800	3.4652	4.3617	4.9990
199802	5.3517	3.8806	2.5816	3.4638	4.3537	4.9853
199803	5.3841	3.9799	2.6897	3.5632	4.4513	5.0807
199804	4.7461	3.7573	2.4783	3.3453	4.2242	4.8530
199901	4.6259	3.9416	2.6782	3.5377	4.4003	5.0222
199902	4.6384	4.0049	2.7550	3.6047	4.4589	5.0800
199903	4.9700	4.1129	2.8736	3.7158	4.5621	5.1827
199904	5.1681	4.0913	2.8635	3.6971	4.5360	5.1574
200001	5.5224	4.1195	2.8938	3.7228	4.5639	5.1897
200002	6.0831	4.1011	2.8840	3.7030	4.5423	5.1721
200003	6.3157	4.1146	2.9023	3.7154	4.5544	5.1931
200004	6.2739	4.0840	2.8795	3.6828	4.5220	5.1707
200101	5.4460	3.9883	2.7951	3.5886	4.4213	5.0739
200102	4.2357	3.8245	2.6440	3.4315	4.2494	4.8988
200103	3.4416	3.7805	2.6060	3.3881	4.2025	4.8548
200104	2.1081	3.6103	2.4400	3.2167	4.0315	4.6899
200201	1.7180	3.6843	2.5243	3.2881	4.1029	4.7679
200202	1.7364	3.6754	2.5190	3.2773	4.0932	4.7673
200203	1.7259	3.4757	2.3175	3.0725	3.8945	4.5762
200204	1.4339	3.4528	2.2989	3.0471	3.8717	4.5596
200301	1.2419	3.3781	2.2249	2.9719	3.7975	4.4910
200302	1.2390	3.4497	2.2997	3.0400	3.8684	4.5708
200303	1.0117	3.5544	2.4093	3.1452	3.9707	4.6773
200304	0.9918	3.4502	2.3120	3.0414	3.8651	4.5764
200401	0.9969	3.3629	2.2263	2.9533	3.7769	4.4906
200402	1.0062	3.3681	2.2263	2.9608	3.7823	4.4950
200403	1.4206	3.2157	2.0751	2.8043	3.6319	4.3439
200404	1.9311	3.2502	2.1077	2.8389	3.6667	4.3799
200501	2.4390	3.3082	2.1672	2.8982	3.7227	4.4363
200502	2.8993	3.2292	2.0850	2.8172	3.6439	4.3640
200503	3.4015	3.2318	2.0855	2.8168	3.6482	4.3676
200504	3.9012	3.2957	2.1506	2.8766	3.7138	4.4410
200601	4.3578	3.2611	2.1144	2.8417	3.6785	4.4113
200602	4.7910	3.3090	2.1597	2.8851	3.7292	4.4684
200603	5.1124	3.2753	2.1248	2.8470	3.6950	4.4465
200604	5.1101	3.1450	1.9985	2.7139	3.5637	4.3216
200701	5.1212	3.1570	2.0087	2.7241	3.5750	4.3436
200702	5.1191	3.1750	2.0189	2.7334	3.5972	4.3791
200703	4.9498	3.1333	1.9657	2.6817	3.5608	4.3703
200704	4.3975	3.0023	1.8229	2.5357	3.4396	4.2709
200801	3.1319	2.7068	1.5122	2.2306	3.1494	3.9995
200802	2.0633	2.6410	1.4421	2.1595	3.0872	3.9508
200803	1.9221	2.7786	1.5726	2.2893	3.2267	4.1039
200804	0.5041	2.5581	1.3139	2.0502	3.0224	3.9247
200901	0.0000	2.5831	1.3352	2.0686	3.0507	3.9677
200902	0.0000	2.7873	1.5478	2.2739	3.2513	4.1685
200903	0.0000	2.8609	1.6057	2.3379	3.3316	4.2600
200904	0.0000	2.8711	1.6030	2.3384	3.3482	4.2876
201001	0.0000	2.9256	1.6431	2.3833	3.4102	4.3674
201002	0.0000	2.9278	1.6367	2.3786	3.4168	4.3876
201003	0.0000	2.7493	1.4456	2.1942	3.2403	4.2278
201004	0.0000	2.7827	1.4651	2.2171	3.2799	4.2906
201101	0.0000	2.9133	1.5803	2.3331	3.4194	4.4603
201102	0.0000	2.8539	1.5133	2.2661	3.3619	4.4221
201103	0.0000	2.6013	1.2625	2.0132	3.1023	4.1790
201104	0.0000	2.4872	1.1404	1.8927	2.9894	4.0890
201201	0.0000	2.4191	1.0708	1.8185	2.9222	4.0358
201202	0.0000	2.3681	1.0218	1.7629	2.8715	3.9999
201203	0.0000	2.2882	0.9336	1.6791	2.7903	3.9402
201204	0.0000	2.2507	0.9024	1.6402	2.7508	3.9101
201301	0.0000	2.2908	0.9520	1.6812	2.7866	3.9543
201302	0.0000	2.2766	0.9470	1.6671	2.7682	3.9448
201303	0.0000	2.4674	1.1540	1.8636	2.9505	4.1303
201304	0.0000	2.3655	1.0578	1.7621	2.8459	4.0319
201401	0.0000	2.4210	1.1228	1.8205	2.8969	4.0803
201402	0.0000	2.3705	1.0750	1.7708	2.8429	4.0352
201403	0.0000	2.4117	1.1207	1.8136	2.8828	4.0726
201404	0.0000	2.2850	0.9967	1.6856	2.7544	3.9493
201501	0.0000	2.2263	0.9389	1.6268	2.6964	3.8868
201502	0.0000	2.2370	0.9479	1.6381	2.7051	3.9061
201503	0.0000	2.2065	0.9136	1.6031	2.6780	3.8791
201504	0.0000	2.1812	0.8738	1.5718	2.6601	3.8602

Panel B: 5-Year Treasury Rate

Date YYYYQQ	Data	Mean	5th Percentile	25th Percentile	75th Percentile	95 Percentile
196001	4.5356	3.9081	2.9367	3.5691	4.2535	4.8165
196002	4.2101	3.8288	2.8788	3.4997	4.1609	4.7259
196003	3.6075	3.6198	2.6852	3.2937	3.9437	4.5159
196004	3.6782	3.7191	2.7932	3.3981	4.0371	4.6069
196101	3.5785	3.7430	2.8332	3.4257	4.0529	4.6292
196102	3.5528	3.7850	2.8816	3.4701	4.0904	4.6721
196103	3.8259	3.8003	2.9058	3.4864	4.1007	4.6916
196104	3.7713	3.8097	2.9214	3.4966	4.1063	4.7003
196201	3.7649	3.7138	2.8330	3.4053	4.0069	4.6007
196202	3.5689	3.6289	2.7483	3.3179	3.9206	4.5217
196203	3.6685	3.7015	2.8282	3.3914	3.9910	4.5972
196204	3.5367	3.6309	2.7630	3.3184	3.9178	4.5365
196301	3.5753	3.7271	2.8640	3.4152	4.0107	4.6408
196302	3.6878	3.7586	2.8992	3.4453	4.0417	4.6786
196303	3.8387	3.8069	2.9517	3.4930	4.0889	4.7304
196304	3.9285	3.9170	3.0600	3.6026	4.2001	4.8431
196401	3.9990	3.9610	3.1044	3.6461	4.2457	4.8908
196402	3.9926	3.9446	3.0852	3.6282	4.2324	4.8760
196403	3.9733	3.9305	3.0686	3.6129	4.2220	4.8580
196404	3.9862	3.9835	3.1157	3.6619	4.2791	4.9112
196501	4.0502	4.1485	3.2738	3.8216	4.4537	5.0848
196502	4.0662	4.2045	3.3232	3.8719	4.5184	5.1449
196503	4.1142	4.2681	3.3775	3.9336	4.5872	5.2051
196504	4.4081	4.4289	3.5395	4.0966	4.7510	5.3568
196601	4.8028	4.6408	3.7482	4.3067	4.9680	5.5611
196602	4.7806	4.6965	3.7935	4.3586	5.0312	5.6217
196603	5.2498	4.9884	4.0738	4.6473	5.3310	5.9110
196604	5.0788	4.9993	4.0692	4.6519	5.3512	5.9372
196701	4.5547	4.9270	3.9662	4.5680	5.2928	5.8851
196702	4.6470	5.0461	4.0731	4.6852	5.4169	6.0071
196703	5.1770	5.3284	4.3513	4.9695	5.7038	6.2848
196704	5.5435	5.5398	4.5461	5.1734	5.9220	6.5035
196801	5.4772	5.5020	4.5115	5.1384	5.8846	6.4625
196802	5.6947	5.6912	4.7029	5.3291	6.0735	6.6509
196803	5.3793	5.6165	4.6279	5.2554	5.9987	6.5748
196804	5.6160	5.6631	4.6692	5.3021	6.0468	6.6192
196901	6.1409	5.7536	4.7508	5.3929	6.1396	6.7129
196902	6.3256	5.8231	4.8358	5.4698	6.2005	6.7694
196903	6.9557	6.0694	5.0675	5.7152	6.4500	7.0246
196904	7.3870	6.1506	5.1415	5.7978	6.5332	7.1024
197001	7.4489	6.2476	5.2332	5.8946	6.6312	7.2039
197002	7.4860	6.3651	5.3416	6.0109	6.7511	7.3264
197003	7.2166	6.3383	5.3256	5.9940	6.7185	7.2807
197004	6.3100	6.2231	5.2213	5.8871	6.5976	7.1445
197101	5.3383	5.9068	4.8888	5.5623	6.2887	6.8472
197102	5.9714	6.1353	5.1428	5.8077	6.5045	7.0516
197103	6.3100	6.2868	5.2953	5.9612	6.6524	7.2074
197104	5.6380	6.1073	5.1106	5.7782	6.4759	7.0352
197201	5.5592	6.0922	5.0909	5.7577	6.4628	7.0336
197202	5.8049	6.1752	5.1736	5.8401	6.5445	7.1216
197203	5.9023	6.2180	5.2144	5.8785	6.5882	7.1808
197204	5.9714	6.2545	5.2402	5.9043	6.6330	7.2414
197301	6.3726	6.3441	5.3127	5.9848	6.7289	7.3572
197302	6.5038	6.3963	5.3245	6.0121	6.7953	7.4722
197303	7.0800	6.5915	5.4760	6.1876	7.0079	7.7362
197304	6.6069	6.5214	5.3636	6.1032	6.9533	7.6912
197401	6.7908	6.6190	5.4061	6.1805	7.0679	7.8391
197402	7.7578	6.8142	5.5477	6.3586	7.2802	8.0799
197403	8.1211	6.9929	5.6723	6.5241	7.4784	8.2972
197404	7.3746	6.9396	5.6087	6.4803	7.4308	8.2154
197501	7.0210	7.0094	5.6654	6.5565	7.5060	8.2734
197502	7.4551	7.0750	5.7065	6.6252	7.5797	8.3299
197503	7.8873	7.1645	5.7643	6.7180	7.6788	8.4215
197504	7.5509	7.1912	5.7928	6.7688	7.6990	8.3896
197601	7.2011	7.0905	5.6919	6.6874	7.5953	8.2435
197602	7.2166	7.1979	5.7650	6.8014	7.7090	8.3419
197603	7.0552	7.3111	5.8470	6.9165	7.8287	8.4657
197604	6.2568	7.2170	5.7586	6.8315	7.7287	8.3535
197701	6.5600	7.3815	5.9001	7.0018	7.8954	8.5089
197702	6.6069	7.3842	5.8924	7.0071	7.9015	8.5147
197703	6.7378	7.4526	5.9382	7.0773	7.9737	8.5864
197704	7.1204	7.5883	6.0410	7.2114	8.1160	8.7282
197801	7.5293	7.7184	6.1385	7.3426	8.2533	8.8672
197802	7.8565	7.8078	6.1871	7.4278	8.3546	8.9752
197803	8.0965	7.9103	6.2383	7.5175	8.4717	9.1114
197804	8.4739	8.0265	6.2976	7.6164	8.6048	9.2787
197901	8.7797	8.1774	6.3788	7.7378	8.7810	9.4952
197902	8.7217	8.1927	6.3547	7.7322	8.8156	9.5641
197903	8.7309	8.2251	6.3518	7.7468	8.8642	9.6306
197904	10.1292	8.5171	6.5201	7.9836	9.2015	10.0613
198001	11.5736	8.8804	6.6984	8.2308	9.6450	10.7149
198002	9.8336	8.6328	6.5450	8.0514	9.3620	10.2781
198003	10.1322	8.6865	6.5436	8.0755	9.4474	10.3753
198004	11.9086	8.7666	6.5629	8.1183	9.5554	10.5483
198101	12.3957	8.8062	6.6055	8.1407	9.6091	10.6133
198102	13.2694	8.7813	6.5837	8.1112	9.5867	10.5943
198103	14.3465	8.9059	6.6373	8.1899	9.7474	10.8393
198104	13.2168	8.7208	6.5002	8.0376	9.5429	10.5349
198201	13.4443	8.7707	6.5084	8.0622	9.6149	10.6437
198202	13.1554	8.8168	6.5285	8.0860	9.6739	10.7479
198203	12.3161	8.8304	6.5112	8.0822	9.7040	10.7990
198204	9.9544	8.5094	6.2815	7.8122	9.3443	10.3384
198301	9.6431	8.4825	6.2488	7.7760	9.3258	10.3176
198302	9.7369	8.5195	6.2917	7.8060	9.3636	10.3627
198303	10.8167	8.7144	6.4530	7.9773	9.5752	10.6203
198304	10.8047	8.5353	6.3369	7.8233	9.3737	10.3628
198401	11.0139	8.4839	6.3198	7.7781	9.3154	10.2880
198402	12.2277	8.6656	6.4624	7.9326	9.5163	10.5460
198403	12.0683	8.7360	6.5315	7.9932	9.5903	10.6350
198404	10.8735	8.3044	6.2563	7.6380	9.0935	10.0064
198501	10.6100	8.2316	6.2450	7.5920	8.9928	9.8753
198502	9.8185	7.9248	6.0425	7.3324	8.6395	9.4515
198503	9.3247	7.7093	5.9178	7.1503	8.3914	9.1499
198504	8.8316	7.5264	5.8022	6.9923	8.1785	8.9059
198601	7.8441	7.2808	5.6190	6.7696	7.9119	8.6150
198602	7.1421	7.0993	5.4678	6.5964	7.7180	8.4085
198603	6.6973	6.9340	5.3331	6.4436	7.5368	8.2150
198604	6.5351	7.0165	5.4606	6.5475	7.6001	8.2552
198701	6.5226	7.0453	5.5369	6.5940	7.6078	8.2390
198702	7.6498	7.3494	5.8761	6.9124	7.8986	8.5062
198703	8.0873	7.3336	5.8870	6.9111	7.8724	8.4593
198704	8.2747	7.2835	5.8613	6.8712	7.8119	8.3776
198801	7.6096	6.9750	5.5792	6.5725	7.4921	8.0490
198802	8.0842	7.0638	5.6848	6.6644	7.5773	8.1273
198803	8.4004	7.1790	5.8195	6.7849	7.6853	8.2236
198804	8.4311	7.0671	5.7358	6.6789	7.5620	8.0934
198901	8.9018	7.2636	5.9459	6.8801	7.7574	8.2826
198902	8.4647	7.1905	5.8940	6.8131	7.6731	8.1888
198903	7.7239	6.8756	5.6139	6.5094	7.3439	7.8492
198904	7.5509	6.8758	5.6302	6.5146	7.3369	7.8364
199001	8.0473	6.8713	5.6421	6.5143	7.3259	7.8236
199002	8.2931	6.8057	5.5938	6.4505	7.2557	7.7491
199003	8.0904	6.7736	5.5746	6.4208	7.2175	7.7125
199004	7.7208	6.8256	5.6321	6.4722	7.2683	7.7672
199101	7.3684	6.5549	5.3798	6.2051	6.9925	7.4854
199102	7.4922	6.5518	5.3803	6.2039	6.9867	7.4819
199103	7.2259	6.5104	5.3488	6.1621	6.9420	7.4352
199104	6.3538	6.2648	5.1145	5.9207	6.6884	7.1842
199201	6.3820	6.1858	5.0417	5.8397	6.6087	7.1092
199202	6.4382	6.2198	5.0865	5.8758	6.6369	7.1384
199203	5.4551	5.9482	4.8322	5.6067	6.3584	6.8621
199204	5.7388	5.8985	4.7877	5.5542	6.3095	6.8200
199301	5.3383	5.6556	4.5504	5.3103	6.0635	6.5814
199302	5.0535	5.5560	4.4557	5.2094	5.9636	6.4781
199303	4.8314	5.4541	4.3500	5.1040	5.8619	6.3803
199304	4.8536	5.3138	4.2043	4.9632	5.7224	6.2447
199401	5.3320	5.3872	4.2753	5.0360	5.7966	6.3155
199402	6.4539	5.5812	4.4631	5.2297	5.9945	6.5124
199403	6.7254	5.4745	4.3567	5.1229	5.8892	6.4056
199404	7.3560	5.4283	4.2977	5.0749	5.8470	6.3637
199501	7.1328	5.3254	4.1946	4.9726	5.7436	6.2563
199502	6.2035	5.2748	4.1477	4.9209	5.6920	6.2017
199503	5.9055	5.2367	4.1138	4.8816	5.6522	6.1625
199504	5.5309	5.2277	4.1147	4.8737	5.6402	6.1501
199601	5.4204	5.2127	4.1051	4.8594	5.6221	6.1362
199602	6.2881	5.3212	4.2143	4.9670	5.7310	6.2506
199603	6.3382	5.1452	4.0476	4.7937	5.5507	6.0692
199604	5.9243	5.0178	3.9207	4.6669	5.4217	5.9437
199701	6.1628	4.9849	3.8850	4.6293	5.3893	5.9157
199702	6.3632	4.9873	3.8842	4.6300	5.3932	5.9264
199703	5.9495	4.8284	3.7224	4.4695	5.2363	5.7697
199704	5.6695	4.7146	3.6062	4.3553	5.1206	5.6570
199801	5.3604	4.7125	3.6053	4.3532	5.1195	5.6540
199802	5.4362	4.7073	3.6082	4.3504	5.1115	5.6424
199803	4.9901	4.8066	3.7202	4.4524	5.2075	5.7389
199804	4.2964	4.5840	3.5071	4.2341	4.9804	5.5017
199901	4.7678	4.7682	3.7123	4.4260	5.1545	5.6719
199902	5.3003	4.8316	3.7907	4.4933	5.2124	5.7248
199903	5.6128	4.9396	3.9117	4.6035	5.3167	5.8313
199904	5.8866	4.9179	3.9007	4.5849	5.2904	5.8030
200001	6.3788	4.9462	3.9356	4.6125	5.3175	5.8334
200002	6.2192	4.9278	3.9271	4.5937	5.2953	5.8179
200003	5.8803	4.9413	3.9422	4.6041	5.3085	5.8395
200004	5.4015	4.9107	3.9204	4.5715	5.2745	5.8180
200101	4.6852	4.8150	3.8387	4.4789	5.1728	5.7203
200102	4.7202	4.6512	3.6900	4.3217	5.0005	5.5456
200103	4.3857	4.6072	3.6551	4.2777	4.9540	5.5028
200104	4.0086	4.4370	3.4922	4.1061	4.7816	5.3361
200201	4.3634	4.5110	3.5734	4.1784	4.8527	5.4143
200202	4.3474	4.5021	3.5764	4.1693	4.8411	5.4134
200203	3.2919	4.3024	3.3756	3.9631	4.6438	5.2236
200204	2.9656	4.2795	3.3535	3.9369	4.6218	5.2084
200301	2.8685	4.2048	3.2825	3.8600	4.5469	5.1416
200302	2.5408	4.2763	3.3588	3.9285	4.6166	5.2212
200303	3.0917	4.3811	3.4680	4.0344	4.7195	5.3246
200304	3.1983	4.2769	3.3674	3.9292	4.6144	5.2254
200401	2.9494	4.1896	3.2808	3.8408	4.5270	5.1401
200402	3.6557	4.1948	3.2795	3.8465	4.5309	5.1467
200403	3.4466	4.0424	3.1230	3.6905	4.3808	5.0004
200404	3.4337	4.0769	3.1576	3.7247	4.4162	5.0377
200501	3.8098	4.1349	3.2173	3.7833	4.4734	5.0949
200502	3.8002	4.0559	3.1335	3.7016	4.3943	5.0210
200503	3.9573	4.0585	3.1335	3.7020	4.3980	5.0273
200504	4.2964	4.1224	3.1960	3.7633	4.4625	5.0996
200601	4.4463	4.0878	3.1616	3.7272	4.4269	5.0712
200602	4.8695	4.1357	3.2048	3.7710	4.4780	5.1284
200603	4.7297	4.1019	3.1710	3.7316	4.4444	5.1070
200604	4.4973	3.9717	3.0381	3.5996	4.3145	4.9853
200701	4.5419	3.9837	3.0498	3.6075	4.3269	5.0132
200702	4.6534	4.0017	3.0587	3.6161	4.3504	5.0504
200703	4.4049	3.9600	2.9980	3.5615	4.3162	5.0418
200704	3.7167	3.8290	2.8435	3.4132	4.1961	4.9508
200801	2.7096	3.5335	2.5259	3.1062	3.9101	4.6850
200802	3.1111	3.4676	2.4487	3.0325	3.8506	4.6390
200803	3.0594	3.6053	2.5770	3.1619	3.9916	4.7928
200804	2.1566	3.3848	2.2999	2.9220	3.7928	4.6156
200901	1.7480	3.4098	2.3171	2.9403	3.8220	4.6561
200902	2.2088	3.6140	2.5367	3.1475	4.0212	4.8572
200903	2.4367	3.6876	2.5940	3.2117	4.1012	4.9539
200904	2.2739	3.6978	2.5900	3.2099	4.1190	4.9829
201001	2.3944	3.7523	2.6263	3.2549	4.1810	5.0611
201002	2.2283	3.7544	2.6165	3.2483	4.1901	5.0823
201003	1.5348	3.5760	2.4218	3.0624	4.0138	4.9245
201004	1.4757	3.6094	2.4415	3.0860	4.0532	4.9862
201101	2.0978	3.7400	2.5510	3.2013	4.1944	5.1593
201102	1.8462	3.6805	2.4812	3.1346	4.1358	5.1226
201103	1.1467	3.4279	2.2260	2.8802	3.8796	4.8830
201104	0.9488	3.3138	2.1029	2.7606	3.7682	4.7884
201201	0.8927	3.2457	2.0281	2.6868	3.6996	4.7391
201202	0.7836	3.1947	1.9778	2.6312	3.6488	4.7069
201203	0.6645	3.1149	1.8935	2.5464	3.5702	4.6434
201204	0.6909	3.0774	1.8614	2.5074	3.5292	4.6102
201301	0.8233	3.1175	1.9133	2.5496	3.5640	4.6554
201302	0.9125	3.1033	1.9093	2.5351	3.5451	4.6419
201303	1.4954	3.2941	2.1201	2.7292	3.7279	4.8329
201304	1.4297	3.1922	2.0256	2.6283	3.6222	4.7303
201401	1.5906	3.2477	2.0933	2.6872	3.6713	4.7814
201402	1.6431	3.1972	2.0465	2.6386	3.6182	4.7341
201403	1.6857	3.2384	2.0935	2.6820	3.6549	4.7722
201404	1.5906	3.1117	1.9716	2.5564	3.5289	4.6451
201501	1.4429	3.0530	1.9144	2.4971	3.4706	4.5861
201502	1.5118	3.0637	1.9249	2.5078	3.4806	4.5965
201503	1.5414	3.0332	1.8881	2.4725	3.4540	4.5755
201504	1.5742	3.0079	1.8450	2.4402	3.4360	4.5589

Panel C: PCE Inflation Rate

Date YYYYQQ	Data	Mean	5th Percentile	25th Percentile	75th Percentile	95 Percentile
196001	0.5284	1.8847	1.0288	1.5076	2.2066	2.8999
196002	2.1065	1.8371	0.9955	1.4622	2.1514	2.8512
196003	1.5271	1.6853	0.8381	1.3052	2.0006	2.7154
196004	1.7705	1.7547	0.9153	1.3781	2.0673	2.7816
196101	0.7467	1.7624	0.9299	1.3877	2.0720	2.7814
196102	-0.0452	1.7883	0.9593	1.4151	2.0977	2.8091
196103	1.4669	1.8080	0.9775	1.4340	2.1167	2.8329
196104	0.4503	1.8175	0.9927	1.4438	2.1248	2.8343
196201	1.7736	1.7591	0.9332	1.3834	2.0687	2.7839
196202	1.3865	1.6980	0.8652	1.3183	2.0109	2.7315
196203	1.0479	1.7460	0.9170	1.3677	2.0571	2.7710
196204	1.1783	1.6933	0.8601	1.3128	2.0073	2.7239
196301	1.1306	1.7628	0.9323	1.3853	2.0753	2.7888
196302	0.5752	1.7871	0.9518	1.4098	2.1003	2.8108
196303	1.8966	1.8381	1.0029	1.4620	2.1510	2.8588
196304	1.4933	1.9263	1.0881	1.5512	2.2418	2.9416
196401	1.9024	1.9654	1.1223	1.5884	2.2855	2.9780
196402	0.9152	1.9506	1.0981	1.5715	2.2763	2.9674
196403	1.3472	1.9472	1.0847	1.5658	2.2755	2.9634
196404	1.3643	1.9955	1.1234	1.6139	2.3285	3.0094
196501	1.2734	2.1344	1.2509	1.7521	2.4722	3.1400
196502	1.9991	2.1963	1.2980	1.8111	2.5427	3.2016
196503	1.4981	2.2586	1.3513	1.8732	2.6104	3.2637
196504	1.2158	2.4036	1.4856	2.0194	2.7580	3.3996
196601	3.0973	2.6048	1.6743	2.2221	2.9638	3.5908
196602	3.2622	2.6676	1.7230	2.2844	3.0332	3.6545
196603	3.0695	2.9139	1.9439	2.5271	3.2911	3.9064
196604	3.0874	2.9250	1.9384	2.5327	3.3114	3.9304
196701	1.1748	2.8627	1.8450	2.4610	3.2616	3.8817
196702	1.8889	2.9791	1.9511	2.5742	3.3810	4.0010
196703	3.6701	3.2418	2.2025	2.8410	3.6457	4.2643
196704	3.4155	3.4316	2.3787	3.0316	3.8397	4.4597
196801	4.2038	3.4101	2.3557	3.0151	3.8164	4.4260
196802	4.0418	3.5723	2.4995	3.1779	3.9811	4.5935
196803	4.1380	3.5124	2.4451	3.1204	3.9207	4.5248
196804	4.4045	3.5521	2.4816	3.1621	3.9592	4.5655
196901	3.9173	3.6239	2.5456	3.2349	4.0336	4.6351
196902	5.0886	3.6900	2.6116	3.3048	4.0989	4.6922
196903	4.8942	3.9007	2.8047	3.5096	4.3182	4.9141
196904	4.5956	3.9693	2.8625	3.5766	4.3905	4.9912
197001	4.6163	4.0560	2.9325	3.6578	4.4834	5.0892
197002	4.4015	4.1608	3.0202	3.7570	4.5952	5.2109
197003	3.8722	4.1420	3.0051	3.7453	4.5734	5.1769
197004	5.1582	4.0553	2.9334	3.6695	4.4785	5.0698
197101	3.7687	3.7804	2.6661	3.3918	4.2039	4.7984
197102	4.5451	3.9799	2.8622	3.5997	4.4010	4.9907
197103	3.9137	4.1069	2.9669	3.7206	4.5348	5.1345
197104	2.4862	3.9479	2.8087	3.5552	4.3785	4.9812
197201	4.2048	3.9382	2.7954	3.5390	4.3749	4.9878
197202	2.3115	4.0064	2.8485	3.6042	4.4468	5.0719
197203	3.5086	4.0482	2.8714	3.6371	4.4958	5.1288
197204	3.2482	4.0845	2.8860	3.6640	4.5412	5.1835
197301	4.7991	4.1742	2.9462	3.7410	4.6426	5.3069
197302	7.6340	4.2349	2.9714	3.7846	4.7163	5.4262
197303	7.2097	4.4167	3.0964	3.9399	4.9125	5.6884
197304	8.1098	4.3708	3.0184	3.8852	4.8802	5.6613
197401	11.7158	4.4719	3.0768	3.9680	4.9960	5.8042
197402	11.1654	4.6485	3.2001	4.1229	5.1888	6.0408
197403	10.6650	4.8066	3.2979	4.2609	5.3713	6.2499
197404	10.0447	4.7585	3.2405	4.2205	5.3288	6.1687
197501	7.4860	4.8110	3.2744	4.2749	5.3889	6.2234
197502	4.9051	4.8595	3.3040	4.3252	5.4459	6.2699
197503	7.4167	4.9393	3.3589	4.4045	5.5336	6.3574
197504	6.6520	4.9579	3.3812	4.4443	5.5497	6.3164
197601	4.3994	4.8615	3.2881	4.3691	5.4463	6.1630
197602	3.3186	4.9515	3.3540	4.4607	5.5428	6.2565
197603	6.0217	5.0568	3.4315	4.5645	5.6570	6.3716
197604	6.2628	4.9795	3.3732	4.5011	5.5706	6.2644
197701	7.0927	5.1246	3.4943	4.6463	5.7196	6.4118
197702	6.7919	5.1231	3.4812	4.6468	5.7190	6.4082
197703	5.9924	5.1768	3.5195	4.6992	5.7781	6.4678
197704	5.6975	5.2923	3.6051	4.8054	5.9018	6.6062
197801	6.6006	5.4074	3.6922	4.9155	6.0255	6.7470
197802	8.1669	5.4876	3.7407	4.9873	6.1151	6.8597
197803	6.9723	5.5733	3.7889	5.0591	6.2106	6.9892
197804	7.4934	5.6757	3.8423	5.1402	6.3277	7.1638
197901	7.4289	5.8123	3.9239	5.2518	6.4847	7.3782
197902	10.7533	5.8344	3.9148	5.2558	6.5169	7.4483
197903	9.7761	5.8617	3.9150	5.2721	6.5529	7.5054
197904	9.5332	6.1252	4.0673	5.4731	6.8576	7.9293
198001	11.7895	6.4586	4.2311	5.6957	7.2637	8.5576
198002	9.6610	6.2235	4.1121	5.5383	6.9837	8.1168
198003	9.2263	6.2637	4.1116	5.5557	7.0496	8.1959
198004	9.7564	6.3305	4.1317	5.5938	7.1368	8.3431
198101	10.2349	6.3561	4.1712	5.6143	7.1649	8.3787
198102	6.6273	6.3134	4.1406	5.5752	7.1209	8.3208
198103	6.4944	6.4150	4.1872	5.6338	7.2525	8.5240
198104	6.0483	6.2348	4.0787	5.5003	7.0453	8.1876
198201	4.9928	6.2704	4.0798	5.5115	7.0992	8.2652
198202	3.8078	6.3055	4.1077	5.5280	7.1436	8.3427
198203	6.2538	6.3184	4.0949	5.5276	7.1668	8.3881
198204	4.4212	6.0136	3.9121	5.2930	6.8010	7.9256
198301	3.4421	5.9778	3.8908	5.2555	6.7669	7.8916
198302	3.6799	6.0053	3.9295	5.2791	6.7915	7.9236
198303	5.2312	6.1786	4.0745	5.4235	6.9851	8.1636
198304	2.6426	5.9999	3.9756	5.2781	6.7756	7.8925
198401	4.2869	5.9472	3.9704	5.2354	6.7072	7.8106
198402	3.8604	6.1049	4.0814	5.3591	6.8904	8.0589
198403	3.0893	6.1605	4.1351	5.3992	6.9518	8.1425
198404	2.4804	5.7595	3.9188	5.0800	6.4689	7.5494
198501	4.7580	5.6922	3.9198	5.0371	6.3744	7.4200
198502	3.3511	5.4007	3.7622	4.7973	6.0274	7.0139
198503	3.1757	5.1899	3.6593	4.6197	5.7749	6.7165
198504	2.7320	5.0073	3.5613	4.4622	5.5596	6.4650
198601	2.8521	4.7698	3.3880	4.2488	5.2985	6.1700
198602	-0.4786	4.5879	3.2366	4.0760	5.1020	5.9522
198603	2.0283	4.4390	3.1144	3.9399	4.9406	5.7746
198604	2.3751	4.5133	3.2414	4.0304	4.9959	5.8100
198701	3.7303	4.5437	3.3265	4.0805	5.0059	5.7999
198702	3.7834	4.8112	3.6245	4.3576	5.2630	6.0526
198703	3.7346	4.7945	3.6306	4.3482	5.2365	6.0097
198704	3.4950	4.7459	3.6015	4.3062	5.1797	5.9453
198801	3.1039	4.4731	3.3577	4.0387	4.8961	5.6474
198802	4.3937	4.5494	3.4385	4.1172	4.9710	5.7263
198803	4.8979	4.6439	3.5420	4.2177	5.0606	5.8080
198804	3.9823	4.5367	3.4586	4.1191	4.9424	5.6772
198901	4.4583	4.6957	3.6177	4.2800	5.1014	5.8318
198902	5.2840	4.6248	3.5673	4.2163	5.0211	5.7397
198903	2.2680	4.3417	3.3200	3.9423	4.7244	5.4348
198904	3.1122	4.3389	3.3266	3.9437	4.7192	5.4259
199001	5.6646	4.3388	3.3338	3.9439	4.7159	5.4170
199002	3.5770	4.2768	3.2755	3.8830	4.6504	5.3520
199003	4.9936	4.2466	3.2529	3.8531	4.6166	5.3165
199004	5.2117	4.2797	3.2894	3.8849	4.6502	5.3526
199101	1.9812	4.0336	3.0660	3.6418	4.3960	5.0996
199102	2.1214	4.0203	3.0543	3.6250	4.3829	5.0882
199103	2.7004	3.9847	3.0246	3.5886	4.3461	5.0573
199104	2.8586	3.7847	2.8387	3.3882	4.1405	4.8544
199201	2.4543	3.7186	2.7763	3.3189	4.0749	4.7912
199202	2.6470	3.7455	2.8098	3.3464	4.0998	4.8160
199203	2.5404	3.5237	2.6113	3.1278	3.8694	4.5825
199204	2.8070	3.4786	2.5742	3.0784	3.8250	4.5474
199301	2.3691	3.2712	2.3794	2.8720	3.6130	4.3383
199302	2.6890	3.1777	2.2982	2.7800	3.5136	4.2400
199303	1.7409	3.0747	2.1977	2.6759	3.4096	4.1385
199304	2.2914	2.9490	2.0754	2.5502	3.2832	4.0136
199401	1.4161	2.9875	2.1215	2.5931	3.3176	4.0439
199402	2.2221	3.1329	2.2638	2.7364	3.4647	4.1918
199403	2.8442	3.0477	2.1821	2.6517	3.3774	4.1082
199404	1.8762	2.9974	2.1219	2.5961	3.3317	4.0676
199501	1.9096	2.9102	2.0369	2.5077	3.2426	3.9828
199502	2.2523	2.8673	2.0066	2.4683	3.1965	3.9354
199503	1.5973	2.8294	1.9781	2.4339	3.1538	3.8899
199504	1.7575	2.8208	1.9832	2.4289	3.1400	3.8692
199601	2.2365	2.8133	1.9877	2.4261	3.1280	3.8536
199602	2.6356	2.8939	2.0705	2.5064	3.2074	3.9305
199603	1.7031	2.7531	1.9358	2.3699	3.0636	3.7825
199604	2.6988	2.6536	1.8397	2.2703	2.9609	3.6816
199701	1.7554	2.6090	1.7961	2.2269	2.9163	3.6377
199702	0.9859	2.5882	1.7721	2.2054	2.8962	3.6164
199703	1.0238	2.4568	1.6342	2.0732	2.7671	3.4839
199704	1.2422	2.3617	1.5316	1.9768	2.6744	3.3887
199801	-0.0251	2.3474	1.5150	1.9646	2.6602	3.3724
199802	0.7124	2.3469	1.5205	1.9677	2.6583	3.3663
199803	1.2112	2.4313	1.6162	2.0559	2.7364	3.4410
199804	1.0132	2.2772	1.4569	1.9047	2.5834	3.2789
199901	1.0405	2.4280	1.6263	2.0608	2.7274	3.4196
199902	2.1371	2.4965	1.7068	2.1347	2.7914	3.4737
199903	2.1012	2.5923	1.8039	2.2326	2.8861	3.5620
199904	2.3642	2.5919	1.8037	2.2340	2.8858	3.5593
200001	3.3312	2.6243	1.8350	2.2684	2.9178	3.5884
200002	1.8242	2.6100	1.8191	2.2566	2.9033	3.5668
200003	2.4786	2.6262	1.8277	2.2731	2.9219	3.5790
200004	2.2058	2.6090	1.8058	2.2559	2.9072	3.5540
200101	2.6537	2.5455	1.7397	2.1956	2.8415	3.4874
200102	1.9057	2.4241	1.6181	2.0792	2.7178	3.3577
200103	0.3065	2.3889	1.5722	2.0414	2.6854	3.3302
200104	0.2639	2.2709	1.4408	1.9223	2.5711	3.2130
200201	0.7342	2.3394	1.5071	1.9886	2.6420	3.2845
200202	3.0681	2.3516	1.5236	2.0035	2.6530	3.2897
200203	2.0154	2.2128	1.3751	1.8663	2.5160	3.1467
200204	1.8297	2.2012	1.3549	1.8539	2.5070	3.1351
200301	2.8139	2.1511	1.3038	1.8059	2.4586	3.0782
200302	0.3395	2.2034	1.3545	1.8599	2.5114	3.1257
200303	2.4411	2.2892	1.4411	1.9448	2.5954	3.2083
200304	1.6146	2.2195	1.3645	1.8764	2.5270	3.1328
200401	3.0432	2.1653	1.3025	1.8199	2.4754	3.0867
200402	2.8011	2.1725	1.3023	1.8237	2.4856	3.0991
200403	2.3238	2.0615	1.1819	1.7107	2.3791	2.9961
200404	3.1452	2.0876	1.2077	1.7363	2.4074	3.0196
200501	2.0685	2.1276	1.2486	1.7741	2.4474	3.0629
200502	2.6514	2.0698	1.1829	1.7144	2.3930	3.0096
200503	4.3630	2.0722	1.1763	1.7147	2.3977	3.0187
200504	3.1108	2.1140	1.2188	1.7555	2.4397	3.0583
200601	1.8447	2.0827	1.1800	1.7218	2.4124	3.0334
200602	3.0684	2.1162	1.2079	1.7508	2.4493	3.0721
200603	2.8478	2.0884	1.1724	1.7200	2.4258	3.0472
200604	-0.6890	1.9874	1.0566	1.6140	2.3321	2.9544
200701	3.7084	2.0027	1.0621	1.6253	2.3523	2.9792
200702	3.1662	2.0212	1.0684	1.6376	2.3764	3.0100
200703	2.2587	1.9926	1.0219	1.6016	2.3567	2.9929
200704	3.9914	1.8943	0.8922	1.4955	2.2702	2.9188
200801	3.4117	1.6605	0.6066	1.2438	2.0574	2.7216
200802	4.1623	1.6076	0.5246	1.1817	2.0159	2.6911
200803	4.0482	1.7159	0.6324	1.2891	2.1236	2.8048
200804	-5.7769	1.5317	0.3867	1.0839	1.9650	2.6622
200901	-2.2642	1.5564	0.4049	1.1078	1.9910	2.6991
200902	1.7907	1.7328	0.6119	1.2880	2.1543	2.8722
200903	2.5095	1.8017	0.6779	1.3520	2.2240	2.9569
200904	2.7158	1.8170	0.6854	1.3594	2.2448	2.9882
201001	1.3649	1.8649	0.7250	1.4022	2.2944	3.0545
201002	0.4500	1.8708	0.7232	1.4037	2.3054	3.0758
201003	1.1817	1.7349	0.5689	1.2636	2.1731	2.9442
201004	2.1223	1.7722	0.5999	1.2970	2.2132	2.9982
201101	2.9819	1.8868	0.7024	1.4005	2.3330	3.1403
201102	4.0223	1.8445	0.6579	1.3550	2.2903	3.1076
201103	2.1166	1.6379	0.4393	1.1500	2.0850	2.8991
201104	1.3782	1.5425	0.3340	1.0492	1.9936	2.8144
201201	2.3067	1.4863	0.2667	0.9886	1.9395	2.7755
201202	1.2183	1.4404	0.2126	0.9358	1.8974	2.7421
201203	1.3087	1.3742	0.1367	0.8639	1.8360	2.6927
201204	2.1480	1.3419	0.0989	0.8282	1.8047	2.6674
201301	1.3535	1.3659	0.1267	0.8548	1.8270	2.6946
201302	0.4402	1.3480	0.1065	0.8343	1.8117	2.6898
201303	1.6520	1.4937	0.2657	0.9806	1.9516	2.8301
201304	1.4085	1.4116	0.1769	0.8955	1.8719	2.7581
201401	1.5952	1.4502	0.2174	0.9324	1.9097	2.8041
201402	2.1208	1.4056	0.1679	0.8842	1.8686	2.7646
201403	1.1860	1.4270	0.1884	0.9018	1.8911	2.7949
201404	-0.4352	1.3186	0.0626	0.7861	1.7914	2.6979
201501	-1.9329	1.2685	-0.0016	0.7298	1.7494	2.6625
201502	2.1853	1.2818	0.0056	0.7409	1.7647	2.6843
201503	1.2741	1.2577	-0.0368	0.7093	1.7490	2.6740
201504	0.1276	1.2348	-0.0856	0.6773	1.7365	2.6667

Panel D: Unemployment Rate Gap

Date YYYYQQ	Data
196001	-0.3482
196002	-0.2531
196003	0.0316
196004	0.7241
196101	1.2247
196102	1.4118
196103	1.1935
196104	0.6613
196201	0.1263
196202	0.0316
196203	0.0632
196204	0.0316
196301	0.2524
196302	0.2209
196303	-0.0947
196304	-0.0316
196401	-0.1263
196402	-0.3795
196403	-0.5698
196404	-0.6016
196501	-0.6651
196502	-0.9824
196503	-1.2695
196504	-1.5253
196601	-1.7497
196602	-1.8763
196603	-1.9406
196604	-2.0048
196701	-1.8763
196702	-1.8763
196703	-1.9085
196704	-1.8122
196801	-1.9727
196802	-2.1335
196803	-2.1657
196804	-2.2946
196901	-2.2946
196902	-2.2623
196903	-2.2280
196904	-2.2280
197001	-1.6503
197002	-1.0760
197003	-0.6949
197004	-0.0630
197101	0.0315
197102	0.0000
197103	0.0314
197104	-0.0629
197201	-0.2204
197202	-0.2834
197203	-0.5039
197204	-0.6936
197301	-1.1057
197302	-1.1057
197303	-1.2328
197304	-1.3588
197401	-1.0095
197402	-0.9461
197403	-0.5350
197404	0.3759
197501	1.9273
197502	2.4800
197503	2.1119
197504	1.9581
197601	1.4335
197602	1.2787
197603	1.4335
197604	1.4644
197701	1.2167
197702	0.8750
197703	0.6570
197704	0.3443
197801	0.0314
197802	-0.2826
197803	-0.2512
197804	-0.3770
197901	-0.4085
197902	-0.5660
197903	-0.4085
197904	-0.2200
198001	0.0941
198002	1.0615
198003	1.3716
198004	1.1236
198101	1.1546
198102	1.1236
198103	1.1236
198104	1.8965
198201	2.5436
198202	3.0933
198203	3.5189
198204	4.2141
198301	3.9426
198302	3.7310
198303	3.0324
198304	2.2675
198401	1.6514
198402	1.2488
198403	1.3431
198404	1.2190
198501	1.1568
198502	1.2190
198503	1.1257
198504	0.9701
198601	0.9701
198602	1.0946
198603	0.9078
198604	0.7831
198701	0.5644
198702	0.2513
198703	0.0000
198704	-0.1574
198801	-0.1890
198802	-0.4100
198803	-0.4100
198804	-0.5365
198901	-0.6632
198902	-0.6315
198903	-0.6315
198904	-0.5049
199001	-0.5682
199002	-0.5365
199003	-0.1890
199004	0.3146
199101	0.7533
199102	0.9719
199103	1.0031
199104	1.3158
199201	1.5645
199202	1.7816
199203	1.9072
199204	1.6591
199301	1.4416
199302	1.4741
199303	1.2247
199304	1.0685
199401	1.1008
199402	0.7561
199403	0.5676
199404	0.2211
199501	0.1582
199502	0.3476
199503	0.3476
199504	0.2529
199601	0.3164
199602	0.2848
199603	0.0634
199604	0.1267
199701	0.0317
199702	-0.0952
199703	-0.2223
199704	-0.4132
199801	-0.4450
199802	-0.6683
199803	-0.5406
199804	-0.6363
199901	-0.6689
199902	-0.7009
199903	-0.7328
199904	-0.8929
200001	-0.9249
200002	-1.0211
200003	-0.9569
200004	-1.0531
200101	-0.7328
200102	-0.5731
200103	-0.1589
200104	0.4751
200201	0.6645
200202	0.7905
200203	0.6960
200204	0.8220
200301	0.8220
200302	1.0736
200303	1.0736
200304	0.7905
200401	0.6645
200402	0.5698
200403	0.4118
200404	0.4118
200501	0.2853
200502	0.0952
200503	-0.0318
200504	-0.0318
200601	-0.2543
200602	-0.3498
200603	-0.3498
200604	-0.5411
200701	-0.4773
200702	-0.3820
200703	-0.2227
200704	-0.0954
200801	0.0953
200802	0.4122
200803	1.0432
200804	1.8574
200901	3.1590
200902	4.0136
200903	4.3181
200904	4.5914
201001	4.4052
201002	4.2229
201003	4.0708
201004	4.1012
201101	3.6741
201102	3.7047
201103	3.5485
201104	3.2115
201201	2.9685
201202	2.9069
201203	2.7528
201204	2.5365
201301	2.4747
201302	2.3841
201303	2.1668
201304	1.8245
201401	1.5748
201402	1.2003
201403	1.1689
201404	0.7597
201501	0.6335
201502	0.4755
201503	0.2539
201504	0.0953

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