Accessible version of figures
Figure 1: Estimated probabilities from the BMA model, zero- and twelve-month ahead forecasts
BMA, 0-month ahead Recession Probability Forecast
| Date |
Forecast Recession Probability |
Recession Indicator |
| Apr-73 |
0.0032 |
0 |
| May-73 |
0.1033 |
0 |
| Jun-73 |
0.0473 |
0 |
| Jul-73 |
0.0549 |
0 |
| Aug-73 |
0.3510 |
0 |
| Sep-73 |
0.2474 |
0 |
| Oct-73 |
0.0506 |
0 |
| Nov-73 |
0.0104 |
1 |
| Dec-73 |
0.6453 |
1 |
| Jan-74 |
0.7650 |
1 |
| Feb-74 |
0.9386 |
1 |
| Mar-74 |
0.4193 |
1 |
| Apr-74 |
0.3078 |
1 |
| May-74 |
0.2274 |
1 |
| Jun-74 |
0.8024 |
1 |
| Jul-74 |
0.9972 |
1 |
| Aug-74 |
0.9989 |
1 |
| Sep-74 |
0.9998 |
1 |
| Oct-74 |
0.9996 |
1 |
| Nov-74 |
1.0000 |
1 |
| Dec-74 |
1.0000 |
1 |
| Jan-75 |
1.0000 |
1 |
| Feb-75 |
1.0000 |
1 |
| Mar-75 |
0.9949 |
1 |
| Apr-75 |
0.9804 |
0 |
| May-75 |
0.0204 |
0 |
| Jun-75 |
0.0027 |
0 |
| Jul-75 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Aug-75 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Sep-75 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Oct-75 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Nov-75 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Dec-75 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Jan-76 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Feb-76 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Mar-76 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Apr-76 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| May-76 |
0.0117 |
0 |
| Jun-76 |
0.0381 |
0 |
| Jul-76 |
0.0124 |
0 |
| Aug-76 |
0.0015 |
0 |
| Sep-76 |
0.0007 |
0 |
| Oct-76 |
0.0093 |
0 |
| Nov-76 |
0.0011 |
0 |
| Dec-76 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Jan-77 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Feb-77 |
0.0030 |
0 |
| Mar-77 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Apr-77 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| May-77 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Jun-77 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Jul-77 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Aug-77 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Sep-77 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Oct-77 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| Nov-77 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Dec-77 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Jan-78 |
0.0018 |
0 |
| Feb-78 |
0.0030 |
0 |
| Mar-78 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Apr-78 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| May-78 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Jun-78 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Jul-78 |
0.0011 |
0 |
| Aug-78 |
0.0013 |
0 |
| Sep-78 |
0.0059 |
0 |
| Oct-78 |
0.0018 |
0 |
| Nov-78 |
0.0033 |
0 |
| Dec-78 |
0.0070 |
0 |
| Jan-79 |
0.0206 |
0 |
| Feb-79 |
0.0457 |
0 |
| Mar-79 |
0.0019 |
0 |
| Apr-79 |
0.0518 |
0 |
| May-79 |
0.0047 |
0 |
| Jun-79 |
0.0064 |
0 |
| Jul-79 |
0.0005 |
0 |
| Aug-79 |
0.0749 |
0 |
| Sep-79 |
0.4452 |
0 |
| Oct-79 |
0.6310 |
0 |
| Nov-79 |
0.7719 |
0 |
| Dec-79 |
0.6907 |
0 |
| Jan-80 |
0.2651 |
1 |
| Feb-80 |
0.2878 |
1 |
| Mar-80 |
0.9167 |
1 |
| Apr-80 |
1.0000 |
1 |
| May-80 |
1.0000 |
1 |
| Jun-80 |
1.0000 |
1 |
| Jul-80 |
0.9948 |
1 |
| Aug-80 |
0.0545 |
0 |
| Sep-80 |
0.0006 |
0 |
| Oct-80 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Nov-80 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Dec-80 |
0.0016 |
0 |
| Jan-81 |
0.0141 |
0 |
| Feb-81 |
0.2839 |
0 |
| Mar-81 |
0.1687 |
0 |
| Apr-81 |
0.2269 |
0 |
| May-81 |
0.3944 |
0 |
| Jun-81 |
0.5990 |
0 |
| Jul-81 |
0.8790 |
1 |
| Aug-81 |
0.7654 |
1 |
| Sep-81 |
0.9902 |
1 |
| Oct-81 |
0.9969 |
1 |
| Nov-81 |
0.9991 |
1 |
| Dec-81 |
0.9994 |
1 |
| Jan-82 |
0.9990 |
1 |
| Feb-82 |
0.9867 |
1 |
| Mar-82 |
0.9191 |
1 |
| Apr-82 |
0.9083 |
1 |
| May-82 |
0.9774 |
1 |
| Jun-82 |
0.9991 |
1 |
| Jul-82 |
0.9832 |
1 |
| Aug-82 |
0.9985 |
1 |
| Sep-82 |
0.9952 |
1 |
| Oct-82 |
0.9928 |
1 |
| Nov-82 |
0.4419 |
1 |
| Dec-82 |
0.0346 |
0 |
| Jan-83 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Feb-83 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Mar-83 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Apr-83 |
0.0011 |
0 |
| May-83 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Jun-83 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Jul-83 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Aug-83 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Sep-83 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Oct-83 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Nov-83 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Dec-83 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Jan-84 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Feb-84 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Mar-84 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Apr-84 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| May-84 |
0.0032 |
0 |
| Jun-84 |
0.0014 |
0 |
| Jul-84 |
0.0021 |
0 |
| Aug-84 |
0.0014 |
0 |
| Sep-84 |
0.0117 |
0 |
| Oct-84 |
0.0149 |
0 |
| Nov-84 |
0.0014 |
0 |
| Dec-84 |
0.0007 |
0 |
| Jan-85 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Feb-85 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| Mar-85 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Apr-85 |
0.0040 |
0 |
| May-85 |
0.0005 |
0 |
| Jun-85 |
0.0021 |
0 |
| Jul-85 |
0.0009 |
0 |
| Aug-85 |
0.0035 |
0 |
| Sep-85 |
0.0043 |
0 |
| Oct-85 |
0.0067 |
0 |
| Nov-85 |
0.0038 |
0 |
| Dec-85 |
0.0014 |
0 |
| Jan-86 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Feb-86 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Mar-86 |
0.0075 |
0 |
| Apr-86 |
0.0143 |
0 |
| May-86 |
0.0135 |
0 |
| Jun-86 |
0.0089 |
0 |
| Jul-86 |
0.0030 |
0 |
| Aug-86 |
0.0073 |
0 |
| Sep-86 |
0.0030 |
0 |
| Oct-86 |
0.0058 |
0 |
| Nov-86 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| Dec-86 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| Jan-87 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Feb-87 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Mar-87 |
0.0009 |
0 |
| Apr-87 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| May-87 |
0.0011 |
0 |
| Jun-87 |
0.0011 |
0 |
| Jul-87 |
0.0005 |
0 |
| Aug-87 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| Sep-87 |
0.0008 |
0 |
| Oct-87 |
0.0897 |
0 |
| Nov-87 |
0.0094 |
0 |
| Dec-87 |
0.0189 |
0 |
| Jan-88 |
0.0474 |
0 |
| Feb-88 |
0.0030 |
0 |
| Mar-88 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Apr-88 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| May-88 |
0.0010 |
0 |
| Jun-88 |
0.0014 |
0 |
| Jul-88 |
0.0027 |
0 |
| Aug-88 |
0.0075 |
0 |
| Sep-88 |
0.0037 |
0 |
| Oct-88 |
0.0005 |
0 |
| Nov-88 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Dec-88 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Jan-89 |
0.0005 |
0 |
| Feb-89 |
0.0033 |
0 |
| Mar-89 |
0.0795 |
0 |
| Apr-89 |
0.0401 |
0 |
| May-89 |
0.0404 |
0 |
| Jun-89 |
0.0187 |
0 |
| Jul-89 |
0.1463 |
0 |
| Aug-89 |
0.0287 |
0 |
| Sep-89 |
0.0182 |
0 |
| Oct-89 |
0.0316 |
0 |
| Nov-89 |
0.0088 |
0 |
| Dec-89 |
0.0076 |
0 |
| Jan-90 |
0.0011 |
0 |
| Feb-90 |
0.0057 |
0 |
| Mar-90 |
0.0014 |
0 |
| Apr-90 |
0.0265 |
0 |
| May-90 |
0.0093 |
0 |
| Jun-90 |
0.0308 |
0 |
| Jul-90 |
0.0357 |
1 |
| Aug-90 |
0.4690 |
1 |
| Sep-90 |
0.8643 |
1 |
| Oct-90 |
0.9840 |
1 |
| Nov-90 |
0.9855 |
1 |
| Dec-90 |
0.9794 |
1 |
| Jan-91 |
0.9293 |
1 |
| Feb-91 |
0.7044 |
1 |
| Mar-91 |
0.6853 |
1 |
| Apr-91 |
0.5250 |
0 |
| May-91 |
0.0778 |
0 |
| Jun-91 |
0.0105 |
0 |
| Jul-91 |
0.0018 |
0 |
| Aug-91 |
0.0052 |
0 |
| Sep-91 |
0.0149 |
0 |
| Oct-91 |
0.0615 |
0 |
| Nov-91 |
0.0674 |
0 |
| Dec-91 |
0.1586 |
0 |
| Jan-92 |
0.0125 |
0 |
| Feb-92 |
0.0085 |
0 |
| Mar-92 |
0.0030 |
0 |
| Apr-92 |
0.0053 |
0 |
| May-92 |
0.0012 |
0 |
| Jun-92 |
0.0016 |
0 |
| Jul-92 |
0.0027 |
0 |
| Aug-92 |
0.0072 |
0 |
| Sep-92 |
0.0031 |
0 |
| Oct-92 |
0.0011 |
0 |
| Nov-92 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Dec-92 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Jan-93 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Feb-93 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Mar-93 |
0.0045 |
0 |
| Apr-93 |
0.0068 |
0 |
| May-93 |
0.0037 |
0 |
| Jun-93 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Jul-93 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Aug-93 |
0.0008 |
0 |
| Sep-93 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Oct-93 |
0.0007 |
0 |
| Nov-93 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Dec-93 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Jan-94 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Feb-94 |
0.0011 |
0 |
| Mar-94 |
0.0005 |
0 |
| Apr-94 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| May-94 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Jun-94 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| Jul-94 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Aug-94 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Sep-94 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Oct-94 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Nov-94 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Dec-94 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| Jan-95 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Feb-95 |
0.0012 |
0 |
| Mar-95 |
0.0041 |
0 |
| Apr-95 |
0.0068 |
0 |
| May-95 |
0.0162 |
0 |
| Jun-95 |
0.0093 |
0 |
| Jul-95 |
0.0104 |
0 |
| Aug-95 |
0.0008 |
0 |
| Sep-95 |
0.0010 |
0 |
| Oct-95 |
0.0015 |
0 |
| Nov-95 |
0.0038 |
0 |
| Dec-95 |
0.0033 |
0 |
| Jan-96 |
0.0086 |
0 |
| Feb-96 |
0.0014 |
0 |
| Mar-96 |
0.0018 |
0 |
| Apr-96 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| May-96 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Jun-96 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Jul-96 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Aug-96 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Sep-96 |
0.0009 |
0 |
| Oct-96 |
0.0012 |
0 |
| Nov-96 |
0.0007 |
0 |
| Dec-96 |
0.0017 |
0 |
| Jan-97 |
0.0007 |
0 |
| Feb-97 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| Mar-97 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Apr-97 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| May-97 |
0.0008 |
0 |
| Jun-97 |
0.0015 |
0 |
| Jul-97 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| Aug-97 |
0.0007 |
0 |
| Sep-97 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Oct-97 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| Nov-97 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Dec-97 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| Jan-98 |
0.0009 |
0 |
| Feb-98 |
0.0005 |
0 |
| Mar-98 |
0.0010 |
0 |
| Apr-98 |
0.0008 |
0 |
| May-98 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Jun-98 |
0.0010 |
0 |
| Jul-98 |
0.0070 |
0 |
| Aug-98 |
0.0073 |
0 |
| Sep-98 |
0.0019 |
0 |
| Oct-98 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Nov-98 |
0.0010 |
0 |
| Dec-98 |
0.0008 |
0 |
| Jan-99 |
0.0037 |
0 |
| Feb-99 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| Mar-99 |
0.0009 |
0 |
| Apr-99 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| May-99 |
0.0010 |
0 |
| Jun-99 |
0.0005 |
0 |
| Jul-99 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| Aug-99 |
0.0015 |
0 |
| Sep-99 |
0.0023 |
0 |
| Oct-99 |
0.0049 |
0 |
| Nov-99 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| Dec-99 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Jan-00 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Feb-00 |
0.0039 |
0 |
| Mar-00 |
0.0007 |
0 |
| Apr-00 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| May-00 |
0.0009 |
0 |
| Jun-00 |
0.0204 |
0 |
| Jul-00 |
0.0761 |
0 |
| Aug-00 |
0.1078 |
0 |
| Sep-00 |
0.0456 |
0 |
| Oct-00 |
0.0645 |
0 |
| Nov-00 |
0.0255 |
0 |
| Dec-00 |
0.2543 |
0 |
| Jan-01 |
0.1875 |
0 |
| Feb-01 |
0.3265 |
0 |
| Mar-01 |
0.6822 |
1 |
| Apr-01 |
0.8586 |
1 |
| May-01 |
0.4569 |
1 |
| Jun-01 |
0.4437 |
1 |
| Jul-01 |
0.2001 |
1 |
| Aug-01 |
0.2288 |
1 |
| Sep-01 |
0.7918 |
1 |
| Oct-01 |
0.8946 |
1 |
| Nov-01 |
0.9018 |
1 |
| Dec-01 |
0.3262 |
0 |
| Jan-02 |
0.0176 |
0 |
| Feb-02 |
0.0121 |
0 |
| Mar-02 |
0.0091 |
0 |
| Apr-02 |
0.2039 |
0 |
| May-02 |
0.0905 |
0 |
| Jun-02 |
0.0306 |
0 |
| Jul-02 |
0.0109 |
0 |
| Aug-02 |
0.0155 |
0 |
| Sep-02 |
0.2483 |
0 |
| Oct-02 |
0.1218 |
0 |
| Nov-02 |
0.0295 |
0 |
| Dec-02 |
0.0187 |
0 |
| Jan-03 |
0.0126 |
0 |
| Feb-03 |
0.1675 |
0 |
| Mar-03 |
0.2574 |
0 |
| Apr-03 |
0.3237 |
0 |
| May-03 |
0.0930 |
0 |
| Jun-03 |
0.0069 |
0 |
| Jul-03 |
0.0045 |
0 |
| Aug-03 |
0.0018 |
0 |
| Sep-03 |
0.0022 |
0 |
| Oct-03 |
0.0007 |
0 |
| Nov-03 |
0.0008 |
0 |
| Dec-03 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| Jan-04 |
0.0006 |
0 |
| Feb-04 |
0.0027 |
0 |
| Mar-04 |
0.0008 |
0 |
| Apr-04 |
0.0007 |
0 |
| May-04 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Jun-04 |
0.0022 |
0 |
| Jul-04 |
0.0042 |
0 |
| Aug-04 |
0.0166 |
0 |
| Sep-04 |
0.0016 |
0 |
| Oct-04 |
0.0009 |
0 |
| Nov-04 |
0.0005 |
0 |
| Dec-04 |
0.0007 |
0 |
| Jan-05 |
0.0062 |
0 |
| Feb-05 |
0.0007 |
0 |
| Mar-05 |
0.0024 |
0 |
| Apr-05 |
0.0005 |
0 |
| May-05 |
0.0038 |
0 |
| Jun-05 |
0.0009 |
0 |
| Jul-05 |
0.0006 |
0 |
| Aug-05 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| Sep-05 |
0.0343 |
0 |
| Oct-05 |
0.3435 |
0 |
| Nov-05 |
0.0064 |
0 |
| Dec-05 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Jan-06 |
0.0000 |
0 |
| Feb-06 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Mar-06 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Apr-06 |
0.0013 |
0 |
| May-06 |
0.1120 |
0 |
| Jun-06 |
0.0865 |
0 |
| Jul-06 |
0.0626 |
0 |
| Aug-06 |
0.0031 |
0 |
| Sep-06 |
0.0067 |
0 |
| Oct-06 |
0.0069 |
0 |
| Nov-06 |
0.0124 |
0 |
| Dec-06 |
0.0070 |
0 |
| Jan-07 |
0.0036 |
0 |
| Feb-07 |
0.0023 |
0 |
| Mar-07 |
0.0039 |
0 |
| Apr-07 |
0.0058 |
0 |
| May-07 |
0.0034 |
0 |
| Jun-07 |
0.0226 |
0 |
| Jul-07 |
0.0266 |
0 |
| Aug-07 |
0.4102 |
0 |
| Sep-07 |
0.2731 |
0 |
| Oct-07 |
0.1534 |
0 |
| Nov-07 |
0.4825 |
0 |
| Dec-07 |
0.6842 |
1 |
| Jan-08 |
0.5265 |
1 |
| Feb-08 |
0.5770 |
1 |
| Mar-08 |
0.8426 |
1 |
| Apr-08 |
0.8914 |
1 |
| May-08 |
0.7331 |
1 |
| Jun-08 |
0.7955 |
1 |
| Jul-08 |
0.9731 |
1 |
| Aug-08 |
0.9957 |
1 |
| Sep-08 |
1.0000 |
1 |
| Oct-08 |
1.0000 |
1 |
| Nov-08 |
1.0000 |
1 |
| Dec-08 |
1.0000 |
1 |
| Jan-09 |
1.0000 |
1 |
| Feb-09 |
1.0000 |
1 |
| Mar-09 |
1.0000 |
1 |
| Apr-09 |
1.0000 |
1 |
| May-09 |
0.9939 |
1 |
| Jun-09 |
0.8213 |
1 |
| Jul-09 |
0.3136 |
0 |
| Aug-09 |
0.0608 |
0 |
| Sep-09 |
0.0720 |
0 |
| Oct-09 |
0.0628 |
0 |
| Nov-09 |
0.0624 |
0 |
| Dec-09 |
0.0084 |
0 |
| Jan-10 |
0.0063 |
0 |
| Feb-10 |
0.0339 |
0 |
| Mar-10 |
0.0053 |
0 |
| Apr-10 |
0.0023 |
0 |
| May-10 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Jun-10 |
0.0032 |
0 |
| Jul-10 |
0.0087 |
0 |
| Aug-10 |
0.1367 |
0 |
| Sep-10 |
0.0315 |
0 |
| Oct-10 |
0.0052 |
0 |
| Nov-10 |
0.0008 |
0 |
| Dec-10 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| Jan-11 |
0.0013 |
0 |
| Feb-11 |
0.0026 |
0 |
| Mar-11 |
0.0026 |
0 |
| Apr-11 |
0.0008 |
0 |
| May-11 |
0.0055 |
0 |
| Jun-11 |
0.0098 |
0 |
| Jul-11 |
0.0068 |
0 |
| Aug-11 |
0.0092 |
0 |
| Sep-11 |
0.0127 |
0 |
| Oct-11 |
0.0039 |
0 |
| Nov-11 |
0.0016 |
0 |
| Dec-11 |
0.0007 |
0 |
| Jan-12 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Feb-12 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Mar-12 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Apr-12 |
0.0024 |
0 |
| May-12 |
0.0169 |
0 |
| Jun-12 |
0.0400 |
0 |
| Jul-12 |
0.0075 |
0 |
| Aug-12 |
0.0061 |
0 |
| Sep-12 |
0.0024 |
0 |
| Oct-12 |
0.0046 |
0 |
| Nov-12 |
0.0107 |
0 |
| Dec-12 |
0.0021 |
0 |
| Jan-13 |
0.0006 |
0 |
| Feb-13 |
0.0001 |
0 |
| Mar-13 |
0.0003 |
0 |
| Apr-13 |
0.0015 |
0 |
| May-13 |
0.0013 |
0 |
| Jun-13 |
0.0039 |
0 |
| Jul-13 |
0.0023 |
0 |
| Aug-13 |
0.0032 |
0 |
| Sep-13 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Oct-13 |
0.0014 |
0 |
| Nov-13 |
0.0007 |
0 |
| Dec-13 |
0.0069 |
0 |
| Jan-14 |
0.0018 |
0 |
| Feb-14 |
0.0042 |
0 |
| Mar-14 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Apr-14 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| May-14 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Jun-14 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Jul-14 |
0.0005 |
0 |
| Aug-14 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Sep-14 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Oct-14 |
0.0005 |
0 |
| Nov-14 |
0.0002 |
0 |
| Dec-14 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Jan-15 |
0.0016 |
0 |
| Feb-15 |
0.0016 |
0 |
| Mar-15 |
0.0051 |
0 |
| Apr-15 |
0.0013 |
0 |
| May-15 |
0.0008 |
0 |
| Jun-15 |
0.0004 |
0 |
| Jul-15 |
0.0014 |
0 |
| Aug-15 |
0.0039 |
0 |
| Sep-15 |
0.0125 |
0 |
| Oct-15 |
0.0017 |
0 |
| Nov-15 |
0.0017 |
0 |
| Dec-15 |
0.0022 |
0 |
| Jan-16 |
0.0208 |
0 |
| Feb-16 |
0.0062 |
0 |
| Mar-16 |
0.0031 |
0 |
| Apr-16 |
0.0010 |
0 |
| May-16 |
0.0143 |
0 |
| Jun-16 |
0.0137 |
|
| Jul-16 |
0.0174 |
|
| Aug-16 |
0.0252 |
|
| Sep-16 |
0.0270 |
|
| Oct-16 |
0.0304 |
|
| Nov-16 |
0.0338 |
|
| Dec-16 |
0.0506 |
|
| Jan-17 |
0.0544 |
|
| Feb-17 |
0.0500 |
|
| Mar-17 |
0.0594 |
|
| Apr-17 |
0.0784 |
|
| May-17 |
0.0966 |
|
BMA, 12-month ahead Recession Probability Forecast
| date |
forecast recession probability |
recession indicator |
| Apr-74 |
0.3849 |
1 |
| May-74 |
0.3397 |
1 |
| Jun-74 |
0.6657 |
1 |
| Jul-74 |
0.7194 |
1 |
| Aug-74 |
0.8531 |
1 |
| Sep-74 |
0.7636 |
1 |
| Oct-74 |
0.5983 |
1 |
| Nov-74 |
0.7664 |
1 |
| Dec-74 |
0.6240 |
1 |
| Jan-75 |
0.6286 |
1 |
| Feb-75 |
0.4814 |
1 |
| Mar-75 |
0.7253 |
1 |
| Apr-75 |
0.7241 |
0 |
| May-75 |
0.5703 |
0 |
| Jun-75 |
0.4880 |
0 |
| Jul-75 |
0.4539 |
0 |
| Aug-75 |
0.6567 |
0 |
| Sep-75 |
0.3674 |
0 |
| Oct-75 |
0.3575 |
0 |
| Nov-75 |
0.4310 |
0 |
| Dec-75 |
0.4383 |
0 |
| Jan-76 |
0.1126 |
0 |
| Feb-76 |
0.0532 |
0 |
| Mar-76 |
0.0397 |
0 |
| Apr-76 |
0.0260 |
0 |
| May-76 |
0.0206 |
0 |
| Jun-76 |
0.0261 |
0 |
| Jul-76 |
0.0515 |
0 |
| Aug-76 |
0.0549 |
0 |
| Sep-76 |
0.0503 |
0 |
| Oct-76 |
0.0351 |
0 |
| Nov-76 |
0.0209 |
0 |
| Dec-76 |
0.0184 |
0 |
| Jan-77 |
0.0105 |
0 |
| Feb-77 |
0.0129 |
0 |
| Mar-77 |
0.0139 |
0 |
| Apr-77 |
0.0147 |
0 |
| May-77 |
0.0183 |
0 |
| Jun-77 |
0.0247 |
0 |
| Jul-77 |
0.0204 |
0 |
| Aug-77 |
0.0154 |
0 |
| Sep-77 |
0.0181 |
0 |
| Oct-77 |
0.0159 |
0 |
| Nov-77 |
0.0124 |
0 |
| Dec-77 |
0.0149 |
0 |
| Jan-78 |
0.0134 |
0 |
| Feb-78 |
0.0110 |
0 |
| Mar-78 |
0.0120 |
0 |
| Apr-78 |
0.0102 |
0 |
| May-78 |
0.0174 |
0 |
| Jun-78 |
0.0205 |
0 |
| Jul-78 |
0.0259 |
0 |
| Aug-78 |
0.0376 |
0 |
| Sep-78 |
0.0508 |
0 |
| Oct-78 |
0.0747 |
0 |
| Nov-78 |
0.0658 |
0 |
| Dec-78 |
0.0675 |
0 |
| Jan-79 |
0.0766 |
0 |
| Feb-79 |
0.0552 |
0 |
| Mar-79 |
0.0407 |
0 |
| Apr-79 |
0.0369 |
0 |
| May-79 |
0.0395 |
0 |
| Jun-79 |
0.0523 |
0 |
| Jul-79 |
0.0721 |
0 |
| Aug-79 |
0.1143 |
0 |
| Sep-79 |
0.2644 |
0 |
| Oct-79 |
0.2403 |
0 |
| Nov-79 |
0.3894 |
0 |
| Dec-79 |
0.4242 |
0 |
| Jan-80 |
0.4434 |
1 |
| Feb-80 |
0.4668 |
1 |
| Mar-80 |
0.5300 |
1 |
| Apr-80 |
0.5117 |
1 |
| May-80 |
0.5392 |
1 |
| Jun-80 |
0.3980 |
1 |
| Jul-80 |
0.4518 |
1 |
| Aug-80 |
0.4781 |
0 |
| Sep-80 |
0.6777 |
0 |
| Oct-80 |
0.7899 |
0 |
| Nov-80 |
0.7011 |
0 |
| Dec-80 |
0.8062 |
0 |
| Jan-81 |
0.7242 |
0 |
| Feb-81 |
0.6613 |
0 |
| Mar-81 |
0.9601 |
0 |
| Apr-81 |
0.7727 |
0 |
| May-81 |
0.0339 |
0 |
| Jun-81 |
0.0135 |
0 |
| Jul-81 |
0.0477 |
1 |
| Aug-81 |
0.0675 |
1 |
| Sep-81 |
0.1553 |
1 |
| Oct-81 |
0.4144 |
1 |
| Nov-81 |
0.8513 |
1 |
| Dec-81 |
0.9753 |
1 |
| Jan-82 |
0.9658 |
1 |
| Feb-82 |
0.8795 |
1 |
| Mar-82 |
0.5052 |
1 |
| Apr-82 |
0.5602 |
1 |
| May-82 |
0.9736 |
1 |
| Jun-82 |
0.8607 |
1 |
| Jul-82 |
0.7238 |
1 |
| Aug-82 |
0.7363 |
1 |
| Sep-82 |
0.3899 |
1 |
| Oct-82 |
0.1364 |
1 |
| Nov-82 |
0.0389 |
1 |
| Dec-82 |
0.0243 |
0 |
| Jan-83 |
0.0581 |
0 |
| Feb-83 |
0.2327 |
0 |
| Mar-83 |
0.1951 |
0 |
| Apr-83 |
0.2298 |
0 |
| May-83 |
0.1480 |
0 |
| Jun-83 |
0.1020 |
0 |
| Jul-83 |
0.0424 |
0 |
| Aug-83 |
0.0026 |
0 |
| Sep-83 |
0.0025 |
0 |
| Oct-83 |
0.0068 |
0 |
| Nov-83 |
0.0176 |
0 |
| Dec-83 |
0.0197 |
0 |
| Jan-84 |
0.0159 |
0 |
| Feb-84 |
0.0296 |
0 |
| Mar-84 |
0.0270 |
0 |
| Apr-84 |
0.0222 |
0 |
| May-84 |
0.0213 |
0 |
| Jun-84 |
0.0308 |
0 |
| Jul-84 |
0.0307 |
0 |
| Aug-84 |
0.0274 |
0 |
| Sep-84 |
0.0172 |
0 |
| Oct-84 |
0.0148 |
0 |
| Nov-84 |
0.0177 |
0 |
| Dec-84 |
0.0322 |
0 |
| Jan-85 |
0.0149 |
0 |
| Feb-85 |
0.0257 |
0 |
| Mar-85 |
0.0242 |
0 |
| Apr-85 |
0.0223 |
0 |
| May-85 |
0.0053 |
0 |
| Jun-85 |
0.0044 |
0 |
| Jul-85 |
0.0075 |
0 |
| Aug-85 |
0.0265 |
0 |
| Sep-85 |
0.0274 |
0 |
| Oct-85 |
0.0208 |
0 |
| Nov-85 |
0.0080 |
0 |
| Dec-85 |
0.0040 |
0 |
| Jan-86 |
0.0029 |
0 |
| Feb-86 |
0.0045 |
0 |
| Mar-86 |
0.0039 |
0 |
| Apr-86 |
0.0037 |
0 |
| May-86 |
0.0046 |
0 |
| Jun-86 |
0.0059 |
0 |
| Jul-86 |
0.0053 |
0 |
| Aug-86 |
0.0060 |
0 |
| Sep-86 |
0.0049 |
0 |
| Oct-86 |
0.0085 |
0 |
| Nov-86 |
0.0196 |
0 |
| Dec-86 |
0.0344 |
0 |
| Jan-87 |
0.0278 |
0 |
| Feb-87 |
0.0704 |
0 |
| Mar-87 |
0.1760 |
0 |
| Apr-87 |
0.1429 |
0 |
| May-87 |
0.0738 |
0 |
| Jun-87 |
0.0609 |
0 |
| Jul-87 |
0.0644 |
0 |
| Aug-87 |
0.0735 |
0 |
| Sep-87 |
0.0194 |
0 |
| Oct-87 |
0.0193 |
0 |
| Nov-87 |
0.0318 |
0 |
| Dec-87 |
0.0597 |
0 |
| Jan-88 |
0.0762 |
0 |
| Feb-88 |
0.0761 |
0 |
| Mar-88 |
0.0902 |
0 |
| Apr-88 |
0.0249 |
0 |
| May-88 |
0.0141 |
0 |
| Jun-88 |
0.0161 |
0 |
| Jul-88 |
0.0147 |
0 |
| Aug-88 |
0.0161 |
0 |
| Sep-88 |
0.0140 |
0 |
| Oct-88 |
0.0092 |
0 |
| Nov-88 |
0.0145 |
0 |
| Dec-88 |
0.0113 |
0 |
| Jan-89 |
0.0158 |
0 |
| Feb-89 |
0.0168 |
0 |
| Mar-89 |
0.0125 |
0 |
| Apr-89 |
0.0122 |
0 |
| May-89 |
0.0115 |
0 |
| Jun-89 |
0.0235 |
0 |
| Jul-89 |
0.0191 |
0 |
| Aug-89 |
0.0238 |
0 |
| Sep-89 |
0.0478 |
0 |
| Oct-89 |
0.1006 |
0 |
| Nov-89 |
0.1632 |
0 |
| Dec-89 |
0.2181 |
0 |
| Jan-90 |
0.2227 |
0 |
| Feb-90 |
0.2238 |
0 |
| Mar-90 |
0.2333 |
0 |
| Apr-90 |
0.2787 |
0 |
| May-90 |
0.2581 |
0 |
| Jun-90 |
0.3267 |
0 |
| Jul-90 |
0.3339 |
1 |
| Aug-90 |
0.2963 |
1 |
| Sep-90 |
0.2363 |
1 |
| Oct-90 |
0.2581 |
1 |
| Nov-90 |
0.3435 |
1 |
| Dec-90 |
0.3621 |
1 |
| Jan-91 |
0.2438 |
1 |
| Feb-91 |
0.1854 |
1 |
| Mar-91 |
0.1724 |
1 |
| Apr-91 |
0.0955 |
0 |
| May-91 |
0.1009 |
0 |
| Jun-91 |
0.1554 |
0 |
| Jul-91 |
0.1414 |
0 |
| Aug-91 |
0.0835 |
0 |
| Sep-91 |
0.0569 |
0 |
| Oct-91 |
0.0688 |
0 |
| Nov-91 |
0.0891 |
0 |
| Dec-91 |
0.0763 |
0 |
| Jan-92 |
0.0307 |
0 |
| Feb-92 |
0.0272 |
0 |
| Mar-92 |
0.0177 |
0 |
| Apr-92 |
0.0149 |
0 |
| May-92 |
0.0099 |
0 |
| Jun-92 |
0.0118 |
0 |
| Jul-92 |
0.0128 |
0 |
| Aug-92 |
0.0138 |
0 |
| Sep-92 |
0.0234 |
0 |
| Oct-92 |
0.0205 |
0 |
| Nov-92 |
0.0090 |
0 |
| Dec-92 |
0.0066 |
0 |
| Jan-93 |
0.0037 |
0 |
| Feb-93 |
0.0033 |
0 |
| Mar-93 |
0.0034 |
0 |
| Apr-93 |
0.0021 |
0 |
| May-93 |
0.0023 |
0 |
| Jun-93 |
0.0028 |
0 |
| Jul-93 |
0.0026 |
0 |
| Aug-93 |
0.0034 |
0 |
| Sep-93 |
0.0023 |
0 |
| Oct-93 |
0.0014 |
0 |
| Nov-93 |
0.0016 |
0 |
| Dec-93 |
0.0025 |
0 |
| Jan-94 |
0.0024 |
0 |
| Feb-94 |
0.0035 |
0 |
| Mar-94 |
0.0046 |
0 |
| Apr-94 |
0.0044 |
0 |
| May-94 |
0.0049 |
0 |
| Jun-94 |
0.0064 |
0 |
| Jul-94 |
0.0069 |
0 |
| Aug-94 |
0.0087 |
0 |
| Sep-94 |
0.0124 |
0 |
| Oct-94 |
0.0159 |
0 |
| Nov-94 |
0.0096 |
0 |
| Dec-94 |
0.0104 |
0 |
| Jan-95 |
0.0087 |
0 |
| Feb-95 |
0.0085 |
0 |
| Mar-95 |
0.0065 |
0 |
| Apr-95 |
0.0049 |
0 |
| May-95 |
0.0098 |
0 |
| Jun-95 |
0.0095 |
0 |
| Jul-95 |
0.0106 |
0 |
| Aug-95 |
0.0125 |
0 |
| Sep-95 |
0.0129 |
0 |
| Oct-95 |
0.0141 |
0 |
| Nov-95 |
0.0178 |
0 |
| Dec-95 |
0.0274 |
0 |
| Jan-96 |
0.0322 |
0 |
| Feb-96 |
0.0520 |
0 |
| Mar-96 |
0.0686 |
0 |
| Apr-96 |
0.0901 |
0 |
| May-96 |
0.1285 |
0 |
| Jun-96 |
0.1425 |
0 |
| Jul-96 |
0.1209 |
0 |
| Aug-96 |
0.0728 |
0 |
| Sep-96 |
0.0890 |
0 |
| Oct-96 |
0.1115 |
0 |
| Nov-96 |
0.1525 |
0 |
| Dec-96 |
0.1545 |
0 |
| Jan-97 |
0.1232 |
0 |
| Feb-97 |
0.0759 |
0 |
| Mar-97 |
0.0514 |
0 |
| Apr-97 |
0.0390 |
0 |
| May-97 |
0.0339 |
0 |
| Jun-97 |
0.0386 |
0 |
| Jul-97 |
0.0418 |
0 |
| Aug-97 |
0.0522 |
0 |
| Sep-97 |
0.0393 |
0 |
| Oct-97 |
0.0475 |
0 |
| Nov-97 |
0.0896 |
0 |
| Dec-97 |
0.0693 |
0 |
| Jan-98 |
0.0537 |
0 |
| Feb-98 |
0.0516 |
0 |
| Mar-98 |
0.0439 |
0 |
| Apr-98 |
0.0371 |
0 |
| May-98 |
0.0481 |
0 |
| Jun-98 |
0.0532 |
0 |
| Jul-98 |
0.1010 |
0 |
| Aug-98 |
0.0808 |
0 |
| Sep-98 |
0.0624 |
0 |
| Oct-98 |
0.1046 |
0 |
| Nov-98 |
0.1522 |
0 |
| Dec-98 |
0.1506 |
0 |
| Jan-99 |
0.1770 |
0 |
| Feb-99 |
0.1840 |
0 |
| Mar-99 |
0.1707 |
0 |
| Apr-99 |
0.1298 |
0 |
| May-99 |
0.1170 |
0 |
| Jun-99 |
0.1310 |
0 |
| Jul-99 |
0.1537 |
0 |
| Aug-99 |
0.2344 |
0 |
| Sep-99 |
0.3094 |
0 |
| Oct-99 |
0.2371 |
0 |
| Nov-99 |
0.2661 |
0 |
| Dec-99 |
0.2608 |
0 |
| Jan-00 |
0.2080 |
0 |
| Feb-00 |
0.1606 |
0 |
| Mar-00 |
0.1077 |
0 |
| Apr-00 |
0.0832 |
0 |
| May-00 |
0.0883 |
0 |
| Jun-00 |
0.0732 |
0 |
| Jul-00 |
0.0801 |
0 |
| Aug-00 |
0.1017 |
0 |
| Sep-00 |
0.1066 |
0 |
| Oct-00 |
0.1256 |
0 |
| Nov-00 |
0.1807 |
0 |
| Dec-00 |
0.1325 |
0 |
| Jan-01 |
0.1193 |
0 |
| Feb-01 |
0.1896 |
0 |
| Mar-01 |
0.3210 |
1 |
| Apr-01 |
0.3718 |
1 |
| May-01 |
0.3056 |
1 |
| Jun-01 |
0.4215 |
1 |
| Jul-01 |
0.5796 |
1 |
| Aug-01 |
0.7018 |
1 |
| Sep-01 |
0.6249 |
1 |
| Oct-01 |
0.7442 |
1 |
| Nov-01 |
0.7911 |
1 |
| Dec-01 |
0.7741 |
0 |
| Jan-02 |
0.5790 |
0 |
| Feb-02 |
0.4742 |
0 |
| Mar-02 |
0.3515 |
0 |
| Apr-02 |
0.1250 |
0 |
| May-02 |
0.0627 |
0 |
| Jun-02 |
0.0695 |
0 |
| Jul-02 |
0.0769 |
0 |
| Aug-02 |
0.1059 |
0 |
| Sep-02 |
0.0797 |
0 |
| Oct-02 |
0.0325 |
0 |
| Nov-02 |
0.0156 |
0 |
| Dec-02 |
0.0063 |
0 |
| Jan-03 |
0.0090 |
0 |
| Feb-03 |
0.0121 |
0 |
| Mar-03 |
0.0067 |
0 |
| Apr-03 |
0.0072 |
0 |
| May-03 |
0.0108 |
0 |
| Jun-03 |
0.0253 |
0 |
| Jul-03 |
0.0578 |
0 |
| Aug-03 |
0.0532 |
0 |
| Sep-03 |
0.1111 |
0 |
| Oct-03 |
0.0796 |
0 |
| Nov-03 |
0.0341 |
0 |
| Dec-03 |
0.0342 |
0 |
| Jan-04 |
0.0358 |
0 |
| Feb-04 |
0.0370 |
0 |
| Mar-04 |
0.0272 |
0 |
| Apr-04 |
0.0154 |
0 |
| May-04 |
0.0347 |
0 |
| Jun-04 |
0.0333 |
0 |
| Jul-04 |
0.0119 |
0 |
| Aug-04 |
0.0054 |
0 |
| Sep-04 |
0.0068 |
0 |
| Oct-04 |
0.0076 |
0 |
| Nov-04 |
0.0088 |
0 |
| Dec-04 |
0.0097 |
0 |
| Jan-05 |
0.0097 |
0 |
| Feb-05 |
0.0117 |
0 |
| Mar-05 |
0.0141 |
0 |
| Apr-05 |
0.0057 |
0 |
| May-05 |
0.0041 |
0 |
| Jun-05 |
0.0058 |
0 |
| Jul-05 |
0.0092 |
0 |
| Aug-05 |
0.0162 |
0 |
| Sep-05 |
0.0210 |
0 |
| Oct-05 |
0.0234 |
0 |
| Nov-05 |
0.0348 |
0 |
| Dec-05 |
0.0462 |
0 |
| Jan-06 |
0.0561 |
0 |
| Feb-06 |
0.0558 |
0 |
| Mar-06 |
0.0557 |
0 |
| Apr-06 |
0.0726 |
0 |
| May-06 |
0.0978 |
0 |
| Jun-06 |
0.1230 |
0 |
| Jul-06 |
0.1187 |
0 |
| Aug-06 |
0.1649 |
0 |
| Sep-06 |
0.2411 |
0 |
| Oct-06 |
0.2593 |
0 |
| Nov-06 |
0.2385 |
0 |
| Dec-06 |
0.2393 |
0 |
| Jan-07 |
0.3754 |
0 |
| Feb-07 |
0.3951 |
0 |
| Mar-07 |
0.3455 |
0 |
| Apr-07 |
0.2703 |
0 |
| May-07 |
0.3089 |
0 |
| Jun-07 |
0.3274 |
0 |
| Jul-07 |
0.3823 |
0 |
| Aug-07 |
0.4417 |
0 |
| Sep-07 |
0.4133 |
0 |
| Oct-07 |
0.4183 |
0 |
| Nov-07 |
0.4683 |
0 |
| Dec-07 |
0.4709 |
1 |
| Jan-08 |
0.4103 |
1 |
| Feb-08 |
0.4677 |
1 |
| Mar-08 |
0.4729 |
1 |
| Apr-08 |
0.4489 |
1 |
| May-08 |
0.3807 |
1 |
| Jun-08 |
0.2516 |
1 |
| Jul-08 |
0.4382 |
1 |
| Aug-08 |
0.2980 |
1 |
| Sep-08 |
0.2690 |
1 |
| Oct-08 |
0.2702 |
1 |
| Nov-08 |
0.2831 |
1 |
| Dec-08 |
0.1774 |
1 |
| Jan-09 |
0.2508 |
1 |
| Feb-09 |
0.1142 |
1 |
| Mar-09 |
0.0734 |
1 |
| Apr-09 |
0.0477 |
1 |
| May-09 |
0.0707 |
1 |
| Jun-09 |
0.0873 |
1 |
| Jul-09 |
0.0657 |
0 |
| Aug-09 |
0.0739 |
0 |
| Sep-09 |
0.0551 |
0 |
| Oct-09 |
0.0606 |
0 |
| Nov-09 |
0.0729 |
0 |
| Dec-09 |
0.2082 |
0 |
| Jan-10 |
0.1273 |
0 |
| Feb-10 |
0.1077 |
0 |
| Mar-10 |
0.1188 |
0 |
| Apr-10 |
0.0835 |
0 |
| May-10 |
0.0528 |
0 |
| Jun-10 |
0.0308 |
0 |
| Jul-10 |
0.0237 |
0 |
| Aug-10 |
0.0187 |
0 |
| Sep-10 |
0.0163 |
0 |
| Oct-10 |
0.0163 |
0 |
| Nov-10 |
0.0144 |
0 |
| Dec-10 |
0.0077 |
0 |
| Jan-11 |
0.0066 |
0 |
| Feb-11 |
0.0061 |
0 |
| Mar-11 |
0.0062 |
0 |
| Apr-11 |
0.0046 |
0 |
| May-11 |
0.0083 |
0 |
| Jun-11 |
0.0107 |
0 |
| Jul-11 |
0.0160 |
0 |
| Aug-11 |
0.0471 |
0 |
| Sep-11 |
0.0412 |
0 |
| Oct-11 |
0.0441 |
0 |
| Nov-11 |
0.0299 |
0 |
| Dec-11 |
0.0120 |
0 |
| Jan-12 |
0.0104 |
0 |
| Feb-12 |
0.0078 |
0 |
| Mar-12 |
0.0086 |
0 |
| Apr-12 |
0.0082 |
0 |
| May-12 |
0.0105 |
0 |
| Jun-12 |
0.0141 |
0 |
| Jul-12 |
0.0121 |
0 |
| Aug-12 |
0.0465 |
0 |
| Sep-12 |
0.0721 |
0 |
| Oct-12 |
0.0467 |
0 |
| Nov-12 |
0.0648 |
0 |
| Dec-12 |
0.0792 |
0 |
| Jan-13 |
0.0736 |
0 |
| Feb-13 |
0.0694 |
0 |
| Mar-13 |
0.0547 |
0 |
| Apr-13 |
0.0702 |
0 |
| May-13 |
0.1144 |
0 |
| Jun-13 |
0.1144 |
0 |
| Jul-13 |
0.1238 |
0 |
| Aug-13 |
0.1002 |
0 |
| Sep-13 |
0.1157 |
0 |
| Oct-13 |
0.0938 |
0 |
| Nov-13 |
0.0993 |
0 |
| Dec-13 |
0.0807 |
0 |
| Jan-14 |
0.0546 |
0 |
| Feb-14 |
0.0543 |
0 |
| Mar-14 |
0.0458 |
0 |
| Apr-14 |
0.0619 |
0 |
| May-14 |
0.0439 |
0 |
| Jun-14 |
0.0326 |
0 |
| Jul-14 |
0.0193 |
0 |
| Aug-14 |
0.0169 |
0 |
| Sep-14 |
0.0166 |
0 |
| Oct-14 |
0.0222 |
0 |
| Nov-14 |
0.0179 |
0 |
| Dec-14 |
0.0117 |
0 |
| Jan-15 |
0.0107 |
0 |
| Feb-15 |
0.0146 |
0 |
| Mar-15 |
0.0147 |
0 |
| Apr-15 |
0.0140 |
0 |
| May-15 |
0.0171 |
0 |
| Jun-15 |
0.0149 |
0 |
| Jul-15 |
0.0173 |
0 |
| Aug-15 |
0.0217 |
0 |
| Sep-15 |
0.0175 |
0 |
| Oct-15 |
0.0261 |
0 |
| Nov-15 |
0.0274 |
0 |
| Dec-15 |
0.0319 |
0 |
| Jan-16 |
0.0436 |
0 |
| Feb-16 |
0.0365 |
0 |
| Mar-16 |
0.0341 |
0 |
| Apr-16 |
0.0434 |
0 |
| May-16 |
0.0345 |
0 |
| Jun-16 |
0.0371 |
|
| Jul-16 |
0.0301 |
|
| Aug-16 |
0.0389 |
|
| Sep-16 |
0.0377 |
|
| Oct-16 |
0.0469 |
|
| Nov-16 |
0.0396 |
|
| Dec-16 |
0.0488 |
|
| Jan-17 |
0.0588 |
|
| Feb-17 |
0.1060 |
|
| Mar-17 |
0.0881 |
|
| Apr-17 |
0.0962 |
|
| May-17 |
0.0966 |
|
Return to text.
Figure 2: The evolution of recession risk
| date |
unconditional probability |
November |
February |
May |
| 2015-11-30 |
15 |
0.17 |
|
|
| 2015-12-30 |
15 |
0.21 |
|
|
| 2016-01-30 |
15 |
0.06 |
|
|
| 2016-03-01 |
15 |
0.00 |
0.65 |
|
| 2016-03-30 |
15 |
0.00 |
3.37 |
|
| 2016-04-30 |
15 |
0.01 |
1.77 |
|
| 2016-05-30 |
15 |
0.69 |
0.01 |
1.58 |
| 2016-06-30 |
15 |
2.99 |
0.01 |
3.03 |
| 2016-07-30 |
15 |
1.13 |
0.04 |
1.81 |
| 2016-08-30 |
15 |
0.83 |
5.83 |
0.05 |
| 2016-09-30 |
15 |
1.07 |
17.30 |
0.01 |
| 2016-10-30 |
15 |
2.23 |
6.09 |
0.03 |
| 2016-11-30 |
15 |
3.98 |
4.17 |
0.99 |
| 2016-12-30 |
15 |
|
4.75 |
4.92 |
| 2017-01-30 |
15 |
|
8.24 |
5.47 |
| 2017-03-02 |
15 |
|
10.67 |
5.07 |
| 2017-03-30 |
15 |
|
|
6.00 |
| 2017-04-30 |
15 |
|
|
7.88 |
| 2017-05-30 |
15 |
|
|
9.67 |
Return to text.
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