The Effects of Demographic Change on GDP Growth in OECD Economies, Accessible Data

Accessible version of figures

Figure 1: Real GDP Growth Rate by Decade*

Year Germany Real GDP Japan Real GDP United States Real GDP
1950 280959 196237 1997789
1951 308511 218977 2123627
1952 340923 239372 2196235
1953 372462 250993 2300123
1954 403726 266592 2291998
1955 458528 289277 2472790
1956 494254 309453 2525054
1957 523123 330768 2577524
1958 546314 359532 2555712
1959 592653 395349 2744243
1960 650134 448412 2815269
1961 678604 497952 2881104
1962 706862 545793 3061072
1963 722105 591536 3196351
1964 776389 660426 3387419
1965 815298 702908 3618462
1966 839130 774636 3855179
1967 834426 857214 3950690
1968 882645 965501 4150081
1969 952593 1082761 4291039
1970 1017144 1197892 4303924
1971 1056914 1274775 4460686
1972 1110767 1391832 4718972
1973 1167816 1501434 5004057
1974 1171020 1460378 4908678
1975 1178619 1509894 4884710
1976 1238252 1602164 5172808
1977 1283202 1706160 5408714
1978 1336359 1846393 5723346
1979 1387799 1945881 5878793
1980 1386545 1995503 5767760
1981 1339979 1990361 5931557
1982 1314436 1959902 5806127
1983 1321275 1933764 6100868
1984 1330441 1950668 6597677
1985 1339688 2001858 6865512
1986 1432753 2147284 7079221
1987 1485917 2290983 7277469
1988 1565434 2530002 7574059
1989 1644566 2740168 7849182
1990 1763367 2960112 7964789
1991 1872352 3148704 7948062
1992 1955281 3263143 8237189
1993 1972333 3358434 8513205
1994 2058650 3485107 8906967
1995 2136722 3662939 9145014
1996 2162051 3751831 9527255
1997 2240766 3786093 10013695
1998 2330570 3699630 10530261
1999 2412627 3661669 11052756
2000 2435641 3745735 11494606
2001 2462646 3769029 11620947
2002 2457505 3779921 11823565
2003 2459688 3828726 12109934
2004 2499611 3897616 12539257
2005 2516035 3907397 12885312
2006 2611021 3953509 13228119
2007 2733960 4036817 13469225
2008 2774911 3944304 13230653
2009 2649212 3775171 12854929
2010 2789140 3912031 13151344
2011 2849479 3868435 13379334

* Each bar represents average GDP growth in the decade ending in the year noted on the horizontal axis. The final bar represents the average GDP growth from 2011-2015. Return to text.

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Figure 2: Demography Change in The United States and Japan (Comparison Between 1950 and 2010)

Country Name Year 0-14 15-39 40-64 65+
Japan 1950 0.35 0.39 0.20 0.05
1955 0.33 0.40 0.21 0.05
1960 0.30 0.42 0.22 0.06
1965 0.26 0.45 0.23 0.06
1970 0.24 0.44 0.25 0.07
1975 0.24 0.41 0.27 0.08
1980 0.24 0.39 0.29 0.09
1985 0.22 0.37 0.31 0.10
1990 0.18 0.36 0.34 0.12
1995 0.16 0.34 0.35 0.14
2000 0.15 0.34 0.34 0.17
2005 0.14 0.32 0.34 0.20
2010 0.13 0.30 0.34 0.23
United States of America 1950 0.27 0.38 0.27 0.08
1955 0.30 0.35 0.27 0.09
1960 0.31 0.33 0.27 0.09
1965 0.30 0.34 0.27 0.09
1970 0.28 0.35 0.27 0.10
1975 0.25 0.39 0.26 0.10
1980 0.23 0.41 0.25 0.11
1985 0.22 0.42 0.25 0.12
1990 0.22 0.40 0.26 0.12
1995 0.22 0.38 0.27 0.13
2000 0.21 0.36 0.30 0.12
2005 0.21 0.35 0.32 0.12
2010 0.20 0.34 0.33 0.13

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Figure 3: Effects of Demographic Changes in Japan

Year Actual Growth Level Projected Growth Level Actual Growth Rate Projected Growth Rate
1950 80.89
1955 83.79 0.71
1960 89.11 1.24
1965 96.70 1.65
1970 99.81 0.63
1975 99.35 -0.09
1980 100.08 0.15
1985 103.54 0.68
1990 109.40 1.11
1995 110.37 0.18
2000 107.86 -0.46
2005 104.48 -0.63
2010 100.00 100.00 -0.87 -0.87
2015 88.46 -2.42
2020 84.96 -0.81
2025 84.78 -0.04
2030 84.28 -0.12
2035 81.50 -0.67
2040 76.85 -1.17
2045 73.73 -0.83
2050 72.81 -0.25

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Figure 4: Effects of Demographic Changes in the United States

Year Actual Growth Level Projected Growth Level Actual Growth Rate Projected Growth Rate
1950 90.50
1955 85.51 -1.13
1960 82.95 -0.61
1965 83.39 0.11
1970 86.07 0.64
1975 89.72 0.83
1980 92.36 0.58
1985 93.01 0.14
1990 92.74 -0.06
1995 93.34 0.13
2000 96.28 0.62
2005 99.35 0.63
2010 100.00 100.00 0.13 0.13
2015 93.59 -1.32
2020 89.66 -0.85
2025 85.96 -0.84
2030 83.35 -0.61
2035 82.75 -0.14
2040 83.20 0.11
2045 83.63 0.10
2050 83.36 -0.07

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Figure 5: Contributions of Demography on GDP Growth Rate (OECD Countries)

Country Name Year Actual Projected
Australia 1955 -1.07
1960 -0.58
1965 0.25
1970 0.31
1975 0.31
1980 0.48
1985 0.48
1990 0.48
1995 0.14
2000 0.44
2005 0.43
2010 0.14
2015 -1.50
2020 -0.82
2025 -0.45
2030 -0.31
2035 -0.16
2040 -0.18
2045 -0.18
2050 -0.26
Austria 1955 -0.22
1960 -0.31
1965 -1.03
1970 -0.95
1975 -0.03
1980 0.83
1985 1.73
1990 -0.17
1995 -0.20
2000 0.51
2005 0.55
2010 0.10
2015 -1.34
2020 -0.30
2025 -0.87
2030 -1.28
2035 -1.04
2040 -0.31
2045 0.14
2050 -0.20
Belgium 1955 -0.63
1960 -1.12
1965 -0.32
1970 -0.16
1975 0.30
1980 0.61
1985 0.87
1990 -0.18
1995 -0.21
2000 0.04
2005 0.30
2010 0.30
2015 -1.63
2020 -0.86
2025 -0.56
2030 -0.75
2035 -0.50
2040 -0.28
2045 -0.14
2050 -0.13
Canada 1955 -1.02
1960 -0.60
1965 0.22
1970 1.18
1975 1.35
1980 0.97
1985 0.39
1990 0.10
1995 0.18
2000 0.67
2005 0.79
2010 0.20
2015 -1.68
2020 -1.15
2025 -1.02
2030 -0.89
2035 -0.26
2040 0.06
2045 -0.13
2050 -0.31
Denmark 1955 -0.21
1960 0.29
1965 0.26
1970 -0.23
1975 -0.28
1980 0.25
1985 0.88
1990 0.60
1995 0.15
2000 -0.11
2005 0.01
2010 -0.20
2015 -1.68
2020 -0.51
2025 -0.41
2030 -0.69
2035 -0.55
2040 -0.18
2045 0.17
2050 0.38
France 1955 -0.76
1960 -1.10
1965 0.13
1970 -0.06
1975 0.04
1980 0.35
1985 0.90
1990 0.22
1995 -0.11
2000 0.17
2005 0.24
2010 0.12
2015 -1.49
2020 -0.98
2025 -0.45
2030 -0.46
2035 -0.46
2040 -0.33
2045 0.13
2050 0.11
Germany 1955 0.69
1960 -0.71
1965 -1.19
1970 -0.73
1975 0.12
1980 1.17
1985 1.72
1990 -0.31
1995 -0.21
2000 0.17
2005 -0.22
2010 -0.02
2015 -1.27
2020 -0.45
2025 -1.06
2030 -1.32
2035 -1.29
2040 -0.17
2045 0.22
2050 -0.37
Greece 1955 0.81
1960 -0.18
1965 0.32
1970 -0.16
1975 0.08
1980 0.13
1985 0.55
1990 0.79
1995 0.34
2000 0.12
2005 -0.16
2010 0.13
2015 -1.32
2020 -0.43
2025 -0.30
2030 -0.57
2035 -0.99
2040 -1.18
2045 -1.03
2050 -0.52
Italy 1955 0.60
1960 -0.25
1965 0.16
1970 -0.34
1975 -0.25
1980 0.43
1985 1.35
1990 0.56
1995 0.04
2000 -0.19
2005 -0.21
2010 0.07
2015 -1.46
2020 -0.38
2025 -0.45
2030 -1.02
2035 -1.30
2040 -1.14
2045 -0.60
2050 -0.03
Netherlands 1955 -0.39
1960 -0.26
1965 0.44
1970 0.13
1975 0.43
1980 0.92
1985 1.06
1990 0.56
1995 0.03
2000 0.07
2005 0.18
2010 0.13
2015 -1.74
2020 -0.84
2025 -0.75
2030 -1.05
2035 -0.91
2040 -0.38
2045 0.30
2050 0.29
Portugal 1955 0.22
1960 -0.20
1965 0.02
1970 -0.08
1975 0.26
1980 0.28
1985 0.65
1990 0.81
1995 0.70
2000 0.36
2005 0.11
2010 0.10
2015 -1.06
2020 -0.03
2025 -0.33
2030 -0.81
2035 -0.99
2040 -1.12
2045 -1.14
2050 -0.65
Republic of Korea 1955 0.64
1960 -0.43
1965 -0.80
1970 0.41
1975 1.55
1980 1.72
1985 1.47
1990 1.71
1995 1.06
2000 0.81
2005 0.56
2010 0.92
2015 -0.41
2020 -0.63
2025 -1.57
2030 -1.80
2035 -1.30
2040 -1.07
2045 -0.85
2050 -0.71
Spain 1955 -0.15
1960 -0.41
1965 -0.11
1970 -0.33
1975 0.03
1980 0.20
1985 0.79
1990 0.80
1995 0.72
2000 0.35
2005 0.39
2010 -0.01
2015 -1.30
2020 -0.09
2025 -0.18
2030 -0.83
2035 -1.29
2040 -1.59
2045 -1.57
2050 -0.73
Sweden 1955 -0.27
1960 0.33
1965 0.29
1970 -0.49
1975 -0.66
1980 -0.14
1985 0.34
1990 0.03
1995 -0.17
2000 0.42
2005 0.54
2010 0.01
2015 -2.22
2020 -0.71
2025 -0.18
2030 -0.22
2035 -0.18
2040 -0.19
2045 0.04
2050 0.00
Switzerland 1955 -0.40
1960 -0.21
1965 -0.26
1970 -0.21
1975 0.03
1980 0.62
1985 0.99
1990 0.24
1995 -0.24
2000 0.05
2005 0.55
2010 0.30
2015 -1.48
2020 -0.56
2025 -0.56
2030 -0.83
2035 -0.63
2040 -0.08
2045 0.09
2050 -0.24
United Kingdom 1955 -0.25
1960 -0.32
1965 -0.20
1970 -0.73
1975 -0.24
1980 0.47
1985 0.63
1990 -0.03
1995 -0.13
2000 0.36
2005 0.56
2010 0.08
2015 -1.58
2020 -0.60
2025 -0.14
2030 -0.57
2035 -0.59
2040 -0.23
2045 0.01
2050 -0.17

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Figure 6: Contributions of Demography on GDP Level (OECD Countries)

Country Name Year Actual Projected
Australia 1955 -1.07
1960 -0.58
1965 0.25
1970 0.31
1975 0.31
1980 0.48
1985 0.48
1990 0.48
1995 0.14
2000 0.44
2005 0.43
2010 0.14
2015 -1.50
2020 -0.82
2025 -0.45
2030 -0.31
2035 -0.16
2040 -0.18
2045 -0.18
2050 -0.26
Austria 1955 -0.22
1960 -0.31
1965 -1.03
1970 -0.95
1975 -0.03
1980 0.83
1985 1.73
1990 -0.17
1995 -0.20
2000 0.51
2005 0.55
2010 0.10
2015 -1.34
2020 -0.30
2025 -0.87
2030 -1.28
2035 -1.04
2040 -0.31
2045 0.14
2050 -0.20
Belgium 1955 -0.63
1960 -1.12
1965 -0.32
1970 -0.16
1975 0.30
1980 0.61
1985 0.87
1990 -0.18
1995 -0.21
2000 0.04
2005 0.30
2010 0.30
2015 -1.63
2020 -0.86
2025 -0.56
2030 -0.75
2035 -0.50
2040 -0.28
2045 -0.14
2050 -0.13
Canada 1955 -1.02
1960 -0.60
1965 0.22
1970 1.18
1975 1.35
1980 0.97
1985 0.39
1990 0.10
1995 0.18
2000 0.67
2005 0.79
2010 0.20
2015 -1.68
2020 -1.15
2025 -1.02
2030 -0.89
2035 -0.26
2040 0.06
2045 -0.13
2050 -0.31
Denmark 1955 -0.21
1960 0.29
1965 0.26
1970 -0.23
1975 -0.28
1980 0.25
1985 0.88
1990 0.60
1995 0.15
2000 -0.11
2005 0.01
2010 -0.20
2015 -1.68
2020 -0.51
2025 -0.41
2030 -0.69
2035 -0.55
2040 -0.18
2045 0.17
2050 0.38
France 1955 -0.76
1960 -1.10
1965 0.13
1970 -0.06
1975 0.04
1980 0.35
1985 0.90
1990 0.22
1995 -0.11
2000 0.17
2005 0.24
2010 0.12
2015 -1.49
2020 -0.98
2025 -0.45
2030 -0.46
2035 -0.46
2040 -0.33
2045 0.13
2050 0.11
Germany 1955 0.69
1960 -0.71
1965 -1.19
1970 -0.73
1975 0.12
1980 1.17
1985 1.72
1990 -0.31
1995 -0.21
2000 0.17
2005 -0.22
2010 -0.02
2015 -1.27
2020 -0.45
2025 -1.06
2030 -1.32
2035 -1.29
2040 -0.17
2045 0.22
2050 -0.37
Greece 1955 0.81
1960 -0.18
1965 0.32
1970 -0.16
1975 0.08
1980 0.13
1985 0.55
1990 0.79
1995 0.34
2000 0.12
2005 -0.16
2010 0.13
2015 -1.32
2020 -0.43
2025 -0.30
2030 -0.57
2035 -0.99
2040 -1.18
2045 -1.03
2050 -0.52
Italy 1955 0.60
1960 -0.25
1965 0.16
1970 -0.34
1975 -0.25
1980 0.43
1985 1.35
1990 0.56
1995 0.04
2000 -0.19
2005 -0.21
2010 0.07
2015 -1.46
2020 -0.38
2025 -0.45
2030 -1.02
2035 -1.30
2040 -1.14
2045 -0.60
2050 -0.03
Netherlands 1955 -0.39
1960 -0.26
1965 0.44
1970 0.13
1975 0.43
1980 0.92
1985 1.06
1990 0.56
1995 0.03
2000 0.07
2005 0.18
2010 0.13
2015 -1.74
2020 -0.84
2025 -0.75
2030 -1.05
2035 -0.91
2040 -0.38
2045 0.30
2050 0.29
Portugal 1955 0.22
1960 -0.20
1965 0.02
1970 -0.08
1975 0.26
1980 0.28
1985 0.65
1990 0.81
1995 0.70
2000 0.36
2005 0.11
2010 0.10
2015 -1.06
2020 -0.03
2025 -0.33
2030 -0.81
2035 -0.99
2040 -1.12
2045 -1.14
2050 -0.65
Republic of Korea 1955 0.64
1960 -0.43
1965 -0.80
1970 0.41
1975 1.55
1980 1.72
1985 1.47
1990 1.71
1995 1.06
2000 0.81
2005 0.56
2010 0.92
2015 -0.41
2020 -0.63
2025 -1.57
2030 -1.80
2035 -1.30
2040 -1.07
2045 -0.85
2050 -0.71
Spain 1955 -0.15
1960 -0.41
1965 -0.11
1970 -0.33
1975 0.03
1980 0.20
1985 0.79
1990 0.80
1995 0.72
2000 0.35
2005 0.39
2010 -0.01
2015 -1.30
2020 -0.09
2025 -0.18
2030 -0.83
2035 -1.29
2040 -1.59
2045 -1.57
2050 -0.73
Sweden 1955 -0.27
1960 0.33
1965 0.29
1970 -0.49
1975 -0.66
1980 -0.14
1985 0.34
1990 0.03
1995 -0.17
2000 0.42
2005 0.54
2010 0.01
2015 -2.22
2020 -0.71
2025 -0.18
2030 -0.22
2035 -0.18
2040 -0.19
2045 0.04
2050 0.00
Switzerland 1955 -0.40
1960 -0.21
1965 -0.26
1970 -0.21
1975 0.03
1980 0.62
1985 0.99
1990 0.24
1995 -0.24
2000 0.05
2005 0.55
2010 0.30
2015 -1.48
2020 -0.56
2025 -0.56
2030 -0.83
2035 -0.63
2040 -0.08
2045 0.09
2050 -0.24
United Kingdom 1955 -0.25
1960 -0.32
1965 -0.20
1970 -0.73
1975 -0.24
1980 0.47
1985 0.63
1990 -0.03
1995 -0.13
2000 0.36
2005 0.56
2010 0.08
2015 -1.58
2020 -0.60
2025 -0.14
2030 -0.57
2035 -0.59
2040 -0.23
2045 0.01
2050 -0.17

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