Emerging Market Capital Flows and U.S. Monetary Policy, Accessible Data
PrintAccessible version of figures
Chart 1: Net Annual Private Flows to Emerging Markets in a Historical Perspective
Percent of GDP
| Year | Net Private Flows to EMEs, Including China | Net Private Flows to EMEs, Excluding China |
|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| 1976 | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| 1977 | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| 1978 | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| 1979 | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| 1980 | 3.89 | 3.89 |
| 1981 | 5.02 | 5.02 |
| 1982 | 3.37 | 3.89 |
| 1983 | 2.21 | 2.65 |
| 1984 | 1.70 | 2.15 |
| 1985 | 1.35 | 0.96 |
| 1986 | 0.89 | 0.63 |
| 1987 | 0.36 | 0.02 |
| 1988 | 0.20 | -0.18 |
| 1989 | 0.84 | 0.79 |
| 1990 | 1.46 | 1.57 |
| 1991 | 2.38 | 2.44 |
| 1992 | 2.94 | 3.43 |
| 1993 | 4.37 | 4.23 |
| 1994 | 2.47 | 1.97 |
| 1995 | 4.38 | 4.21 |
| 1996 | 3.93 | 3.79 |
| 1997 | 2.98 | 3.14 |
| 1998 | 1.73 | 2.31 |
| 1999 | 1.39 | 1.64 |
| 2000 | 1.14 | 1.40 |
| 2001 | 1.46 | 1.11 |
| 2002 | 1.68 | 1.50 |
| 2003 | 1.90 | 1.43 |
| 2004 | 2.58 | 1.58 |
| 2005 | 2.26 | 1.69 |
| 2006 | 1.79 | 1.84 |
| 2007 | 3.96 | 4.44 |
| 2008 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| 2009 | 2.71 | 2.15 |
| 2010 | 3.89 | 3.50 |
| 2011 | 2.75 | 2.37 |
| 2012 | 1.29 | 2.31 |
| 2013 | 2.30 | 1.45 |
| 2014 | 0.61 | 0.78 |
| 2015 | -2.93 | 0.23 |
Source: IMF BoPS annual data. Net private flows include net FDI, portfolio, & other flows excl. IMF lending.
Countries included: China (except where indicated), Indonesia, India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Israel, South Africa, Turkey
Chart 2: Net Quarterly Private Flows to Emerging Markets
Percent of GDP/Percent
| Date | Net Private Flows to EMEs, Including China | Net Private Flows to EMEs, Excluding China | Fed Funds Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1/2001 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 5.61 |
| 4/1/2001 | 0.96 | 0.77 | 4.33 |
| 7/1/2001 | 1.66 | 1.25 | 3.43 |
| 10/1/2001 | 1.47 | 1.11 | 2.14 |
| 1/1/2002 | 1.83 | 1.44 | 1.74 |
| 4/1/2002 | 1.75 | 1.66 | 1.76 |
| 7/1/2002 | 1.44 | 1.18 | 1.75 |
| 10/1/2002 | 1.61 | 1.41 | 1.44 |
| 1/1/2003 | 1.68 | 1.33 | 1.26 |
| 4/1/2003 | 1.99 | 1.30 | 1.25 |
| 7/1/2003 | 2.01 | 1.31 | 1.01 |
| 10/1/2003 | 1.89 | 1.41 | 1.00 |
| 1/1/2004 | 2.17 | 1.62 | 1.00 |
| 4/1/2004 | 1.90 | 1.18 | 1.01 |
| 7/1/2004 | 1.67 | 1.08 | 1.44 |
| 10/1/2004 | 2.57 | 1.58 | 1.94 |
| 1/1/2005 | 2.37 | 1.59 | 2.47 |
| 4/1/2005 | 2.78 | 2.18 | 2.94 |
| 7/1/2005 | 3.18 | 2.36 | 3.46 |
| 10/1/2005 | 2.28 | 1.71 | 3.97 |
| 1/1/2006 | 2.15 | 1.56 | 4.46 |
| 4/1/2006 | 2.14 | 1.72 | 4.90 |
| 7/1/2006 | 1.61 | 1.55 | 5.25 |
| 10/1/2006 | 1.79 | 1.84 | 5.25 |
| 1/1/2007 | 2.33 | 2.42 | 5.26 |
| 4/1/2007 | 3.12 | 3.21 | 5.25 |
| 7/1/2007 | 3.70 | 3.81 | 5.09 |
| 10/1/2007 | 3.96 | 4.45 | 4.49 |
| 1/1/2008 | 3.90 | 4.33 | 3.17 |
| 4/1/2008 | 3.19 | 3.86 | 2.09 |
| 7/1/2008 | 2.87 | 3.53 | 1.96 |
| 10/1/2008 | 0.72 | 0.69 | 0.52 |
| 1/1/2009 | -0.40 | -0.50 | 0.19 |
| 4/1/2009 | -0.46 | -1.24 | 0.18 |
| 7/1/2009 | 0.26 | -0.36 | 0.15 |
| 10/1/2009 | 2.72 | 2.16 | 0.12 |
| 1/1/2010 | 3.69 | 3.20 | 0.13 |
| 4/1/2010 | 3.75 | 3.74 | 0.19 |
| 7/1/2010 | 3.60 | 3.53 | 0.19 |
| 10/1/2010 | 3.88 | 3.50 | 0.19 |
| 1/1/2011 | 4.11 | 3.69 | 0.16 |
| 4/1/2011 | 4.49 | 3.92 | 0.09 |
| 7/1/2011 | 4.11 | 3.13 | 0.08 |
| 10/1/2011 | 2.75 | 2.37 | 0.08 |
| 1/1/2012 | 2.17 | 1.97 | 0.11 |
| 4/1/2012 | 1.14 | 1.39 | 0.15 |
| 7/1/2012 | 0.78 | 1.74 | 0.15 |
| 10/1/2012 | 1.29 | 2.31 | 0.16 |
| 1/1/2013 | 1.60 | 2.47 | 0.15 |
| 4/1/2013 | 1.70 | 2.28 | 0.12 |
| 7/1/2013 | 1.98 | 1.82 | 0.09 |
| 10/1/2013 | 2.30 | 1.45 | 0.09 |
| 1/1/2014 | 1.70 | 0.60 | 0.07 |
| 4/1/2014 | 1.51 | 0.72 | 0.09 |
| 7/1/2014 | 1.23 | 1.04 | 0.09 |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.25 | 0.78 | 0.10 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.37 | 1.04 | 0.11 |
| 4/1/2015 | -0.53 | 0.83 | 0.13 |
| 7/1/2015 | -1.32 | 0.31 | 0.14 |
| 10/1/2015 | -1.86 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
Source: IMF BoPS, FRB. Net private inflows incl. net FDI, portfolio, & other flows excl. IMF lending; 4-quarter rolling ave.
Countries included: China (except where indicated), Indonesia, India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Israel, South Africa, Turkey
Chart 3: Gross Private Inflows to Emerging Markets
Percent of GDP/Percent
| Date | Gross Private Inflows to EMEs, Including China | Gross Private Inflows to EMEs, Excluding China | Fed Funds Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1/2001 | 3.00 | 2.36 | 5.61 |
| 4/1/2001 | 2.88 | 2.47 | 4.33 |
| 7/1/2001 | 3.24 | 2.76 | 3.43 |
| 10/1/2001 | 2.42 | 2.20 | 2.14 |
| 1/1/2002 | 2.25 | 2.28 | 1.74 |
| 4/1/2002 | 2.24 | 2.34 | 1.76 |
| 7/1/2002 | 1.79 | 1.82 | 1.75 |
| 10/1/2002 | 2.52 | 2.22 | 1.44 |
| 1/1/2003 | 2.73 | 2.36 | 1.26 |
| 4/1/2003 | 3.02 | 2.59 | 1.25 |
| 7/1/2003 | 3.17 | 2.94 | 1.01 |
| 10/1/2003 | 3.64 | 3.44 | 1.00 |
| 1/1/2004 | 4.13 | 4.03 | 1.00 |
| 4/1/2004 | 4.49 | 3.93 | 1.01 |
| 7/1/2004 | 4.71 | 4.27 | 1.44 |
| 10/1/2004 | 4.87 | 4.61 | 1.94 |
| 1/1/2005 | 4.97 | 4.68 | 2.47 |
| 4/1/2005 | 5.26 | 5.22 | 2.94 |
| 7/1/2005 | 5.58 | 5.30 | 3.46 |
| 10/1/2005 | 5.69 | 5.02 | 3.97 |
| 1/1/2006 | 6.08 | 5.54 | 4.46 |
| 4/1/2006 | 6.00 | 5.69 | 4.90 |
| 7/1/2006 | 5.93 | 5.72 | 5.25 |
| 10/1/2006 | 6.90 | 6.60 | 5.25 |
| 1/1/2007 | 7.19 | 7.00 | 5.26 |
| 4/1/2007 | 8.54 | 8.73 | 5.25 |
| 7/1/2007 | 9.29 | 9.53 | 5.09 |
| 10/1/2007 | 9.43 | 10.08 | 4.49 |
| 1/1/2008 | 9.49 | 9.91 | 3.17 |
| 4/1/2008 | 8.68 | 8.93 | 2.09 |
| 7/1/2008 | 8.11 | 8.61 | 1.96 |
| 10/1/2008 | 4.47 | 4.81 | 0.52 |
| 1/1/2009 | 2.65 | 2.83 | 0.19 |
| 4/1/2009 | 1.56 | 1.44 | 0.18 |
| 7/1/2009 | 1.95 | 1.96 | 0.15 |
| 10/1/2009 | 4.36 | 4.34 | 0.12 |
| 1/1/2010 | 5.44 | 5.57 | 0.13 |
| 4/1/2010 | 6.14 | 6.19 | 0.19 |
| 7/1/2010 | 6.39 | 6.03 | 0.19 |
| 10/1/2010 | 6.91 | 6.53 | 0.19 |
| 1/1/2011 | 7.22 | 6.77 | 0.16 |
| 4/1/2011 | 7.47 | 6.95 | 0.09 |
| 7/1/2011 | 6.72 | 5.92 | 0.08 |
| 10/1/2011 | 5.62 | 5.17 | 0.08 |
| 1/1/2012 | 5.17 | 4.81 | 0.11 |
| 4/1/2012 | 4.46 | 4.41 | 0.15 |
| 7/1/2012 | 4.06 | 4.78 | 0.15 |
| 10/1/2012 | 4.56 | 5.38 | 0.16 |
| 1/1/2013 | 5.08 | 6.07 | 0.15 |
| 4/1/2013 | 4.83 | 5.80 | 0.12 |
| 7/1/2013 | 5.15 | 5.45 | 0.09 |
| 10/1/2013 | 5.40 | 5.05 | 0.09 |
| 1/1/2014 | 4.76 | 4.06 | 0.07 |
| 4/1/2014 | 5.24 | 4.67 | 0.09 |
| 7/1/2014 | 5.07 | 4.80 | 0.09 |
| 10/1/2014 | 4.22 | 4.39 | 0.10 |
| 1/1/2015 | 3.39 | 4.19 | 0.11 |
| 4/1/2015 | 2.80 | 3.52 | 0.13 |
| 7/1/2015 | 1.87 | 3.00 | 0.14 |
| 10/1/2015 | 1.01 | 2.37 | 0.16 |
Sources: IMF BoPS, FRB. Gross private inflows include net FDI, portfolio, & other flows excl. IMF lending, 4-quarter rolling ave.
Countries included: China (except where indicated), Indonesia, India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Israel, South Africa, Turkey
Chart 4: Net Private Flows, Fed Balance Sheet, and U.S. Quantitative Easing
Percent of GDP
| Date | Net Private Flows to EMEs Ex. China | Fed Balance Sheet | Quantitative Easing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1/2001 | 0.59 | 5.69 | |
| 4/1/2001 | 0.77 | 5.77 | |
| 7/1/2001 | 1.25 | 6.00 | |
| 10/1/2001 | 1.11 | 6.19 | |
| 1/1/2002 | 1.44 | 6.08 | |
| 4/1/2002 | 1.66 | 6.28 | |
| 7/1/2002 | 1.18 | 6.18 | |
| 10/1/2002 | 1.41 | 6.59 | |
| 1/1/2003 | 1.33 | 6.46 | |
| 4/1/2003 | 1.30 | 6.54 | |
| 7/1/2003 | 1.31 | 6.38 | |
| 10/1/2003 | 1.41 | 6.53 | |
| 1/1/2004 | 1.62 | 6.35 | |
| 4/1/2004 | 1.18 | 6.40 | |
| 7/1/2004 | 1.08 | 6.36 | |
| 10/1/2004 | 1.58 | 6.46 | |
| 1/1/2005 | 1.59 | 6.30 | |
| 4/1/2005 | 2.18 | 6.24 | |
| 7/1/2005 | 2.36 | 6.24 | |
| 10/1/2005 | 1.71 | 6.33 | |
| 1/1/2006 | 1.56 | 6.11 | |
| 4/1/2006 | 1.72 | 6.12 | |
| 7/1/2006 | 1.55 | 6.11 | |
| 10/1/2006 | 1.84 | 6.18 | |
| 1/1/2007 | 2.42 | 6.11 | |
| 4/1/2007 | 3.21 | 6.00 | |
| 7/1/2007 | 3.81 | 6.11 | |
| 10/1/2007 | 4.45 | 6.06 | |
| 1/1/2008 | 4.33 | 6.09 | |
| 4/1/2008 | 3.86 | 6.03 | |
| 7/1/2008 | 3.53 | 8.16 | |
| 10/1/2008 | 0.69 | 15.39 | QE1 |
| 1/1/2009 | -0.50 | 14.40 | |
| 4/1/2009 | -1.24 | 14.12 | |
| 7/1/2009 | -0.36 | 14.88 | |
| 10/1/2009 | 2.16 | 15.34 | |
| 1/1/2010 | 3.20 | 15.72 | |
| 4/1/2010 | 3.74 | 15.66 | |
| 7/1/2010 | 3.53 | 15.27 | |
| 10/1/2010 | 3.50 | 15.89 | QE2 |
| 1/1/2011 | 3.69 | 17.21 | |
| 4/1/2011 | 3.92 | 18.53 | |
| 7/1/2011 | 3.13 | 18.29 | |
| 10/1/2011 | 2.37 | 18.54 | |
| 1/1/2012 | 1.97 | 18.02 | |
| 4/1/2012 | 1.39 | 17.76 | |
| 7/1/2012 | 1.74 | 17.28 | QE3 |
| 10/1/2012 | 2.31 | 17.84 | |
| 1/1/2013 | 2.47 | 19.48 | |
| 4/1/2013 | 2.28 | 21.05 | |
| 7/1/2013 | 1.82 | 22.32 | |
| 10/1/2013 | 1.45 | 23.78 | |
| 1/1/2014 | 0.60 | 24.89 | |
| 4/1/2014 | 0.72 | 25.29 | |
| 7/1/2014 | 1.04 | 25.45 | |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.78 | 25.53 | |
| 1/1/2015 | 1.04 | 25.39 | |
| 4/1/2015 | 0.83 | 25.09 | |
| 7/1/2015 | 0.31 | 24.83 | |
| 10/1/2015 | 0.12 | 24.75 |
Sources: IMF BoPS, FRB. Net private inflows incl. net FDI, portfolio, & other flows excl. IMF lending; 4-quarter rolling ave.
Countries included: Indonesia, India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Israel, South Africa, Turkey
Chart 5: Net Private Flows and U.S. Interest Rates
Percent of GDP/Percent
| Date | Net Private Flows to EMEs Ex. China | 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield | Shadow Fed Funds Rate | Quantitative Easing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1/2001 | 0.59 | 5.05 | 5.61 | |
| 4/1/2001 | 0.77 | 5.27 | 4.33 | |
| 7/1/2001 | 1.25 | 4.99 | 3.43 | |
| 10/1/2001 | 1.11 | 4.77 | 2.14 | |
| 1/1/2002 | 1.44 | 5.08 | 1.74 | |
| 4/1/2002 | 1.66 | 5.10 | 1.76 | |
| 7/1/2002 | 1.18 | 4.26 | 1.75 | |
| 10/1/2002 | 1.41 | 4.01 | 1.44 | |
| 1/1/2003 | 1.33 | 3.92 | 1.26 | |
| 4/1/2003 | 1.30 | 3.62 | 1.25 | |
| 7/1/2003 | 1.31 | 4.23 | 1.01 | |
| 10/1/2003 | 1.41 | 4.29 | 1.00 | |
| 1/1/2004 | 1.62 | 4.02 | 1.00 | |
| 4/1/2004 | 1.18 | 4.60 | 1.01 | |
| 7/1/2004 | 1.08 | 4.30 | 1.44 | |
| 10/1/2004 | 1.58 | 4.17 | 1.94 | |
| 1/1/2005 | 1.59 | 4.29 | 2.47 | |
| 4/1/2005 | 2.18 | 4.16 | 2.94 | |
| 7/1/2005 | 2.36 | 4.21 | 3.46 | |
| 10/1/2005 | 1.71 | 4.49 | 3.97 | |
| 1/1/2006 | 1.56 | 4.57 | 4.46 | |
| 4/1/2006 | 1.72 | 5.07 | 4.90 | |
| 7/1/2006 | 1.55 | 4.89 | 5.25 | |
| 10/1/2006 | 1.84 | 4.63 | 5.25 | |
| 1/1/2007 | 2.42 | 4.68 | 5.26 | |
| 4/1/2007 | 3.21 | 4.85 | 5.25 | |
| 7/1/2007 | 3.81 | 4.73 | 5.09 | |
| 10/1/2007 | 4.45 | 4.26 | 4.49 | |
| 1/1/2008 | 4.33 | 3.66 | 3.17 | |
| 4/1/2008 | 3.86 | 3.88 | 2.09 | |
| 7/1/2008 | 3.53 | 3.86 | 1.96 | |
| 10/1/2008 | 0.69 | 3.25 | 0.52 | QE1 |
| 1/1/2009 | -0.50 | 2.74 | 0.19 | |
| 4/1/2009 | -1.24 | 3.31 | 0.18 | |
| 7/1/2009 | -0.36 | 3.52 | -0.27 | |
| 10/1/2009 | 2.16 | 3.46 | -0.41 | |
| 1/1/2010 | 3.20 | 3.72 | -0.49 | |
| 4/1/2010 | 3.74 | 3.49 | -0.50 | |
| 7/1/2010 | 3.53 | 2.79 | -0.69 | |
| 10/1/2010 | 3.50 | 2.86 | -0.95 | QE2 |
| 1/1/2011 | 3.69 | 3.46 | -1.03 | |
| 4/1/2011 | 3.92 | 3.21 | -1.11 | |
| 7/1/2011 | 3.13 | 2.43 | -1.32 | |
| 10/1/2011 | 2.37 | 2.05 | -1.46 | |
| 1/1/2012 | 1.97 | 2.04 | -1.42 | |
| 4/1/2012 | 1.39 | 1.82 | -1.20 | |
| 7/1/2012 | 1.74 | 1.64 | -1.27 | QE3 |
| 10/1/2012 | 2.31 | 1.71 | -1.40 | |
| 1/1/2013 | 2.47 | 1.95 | -1.41 | |
| 4/1/2013 | 2.28 | 2.00 | -1.25 | |
| 7/1/2013 | 1.82 | 2.71 | -1.66 | |
| 10/1/2013 | 1.45 | 2.75 | -1.99 | |
| 1/1/2014 | 0.60 | 2.76 | -2.51 | |
| 4/1/2014 | 0.72 | 2.62 | -2.92 | |
| 7/1/2014 | 1.04 | 2.50 | -2.84 | |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.78 | 2.28 | -2.66 | |
| 1/1/2015 | 1.04 | 1.97 | -2.02 | |
| 4/1/2015 | 0.83 | 2.17 | -1.47 | |
| 7/1/2015 | 0.31 | 2.22 | -0.98 | |
| 10/1/2015 | 0.12 | 2.19 | -0.27 |
Sources: IMF BoPS, FRED, FRB Atlanta. Net private inflows incl. net FDI, portfolio, & other flows excl. IMF lending; 4-quarter rolling ave.
Countries included: Indonesia, India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Israel, South Africa, Turkey
Chart 6: U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields and EME Long Term Yields
Percentage Points/Percent of GDP
| Date | EME Ave. 10-Year Yield | 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|---|---|---|
| 1/1/2001 | 6.98 | 5.05 |
| 4/1/2001 | 8.01 | 5.27 |
| 7/1/2001 | 11.10 | 4.99 |
| 10/1/2001 | 10.25 | 4.77 |
| 1/1/2002 | 8.87 | 5.08 |
| 4/1/2002 | 9.37 | 5.10 |
| 7/1/2002 | 10.22 | 4.26 |
| 10/1/2002 | 10.68 | 4.01 |
| 1/1/2003 | 11.11 | 3.92 |
| 4/1/2003 | 9.59 | 3.62 |
| 7/1/2003 | 8.99 | 4.23 |
| 10/1/2003 | 8.38 | 4.29 |
| 1/1/2004 | 8.17 | 4.02 |
| 4/1/2004 | 8.92 | 4.60 |
| 7/1/2004 | 8.91 | 4.30 |
| 10/1/2004 | 8.37 | 4.17 |
| 1/1/2005 | 8.49 | 4.29 |
| 4/1/2005 | 8.59 | 4.16 |
| 7/1/2005 | 8.68 | 4.21 |
| 10/1/2005 | 8.90 | 4.49 |
| 1/1/2006 | 8.47 | 4.57 |
| 4/1/2006 | 8.78 | 5.07 |
| 7/1/2006 | 8.62 | 4.89 |
| 10/1/2006 | 7.97 | 4.63 |
| 1/1/2007 | 7.89 | 4.68 |
| 4/1/2007 | 7.62 | 4.85 |
| 7/1/2007 | 7.91 | 4.73 |
| 10/1/2007 | 8.11 | 4.26 |
| 1/1/2008 | 8.36 | 3.66 |
| 4/1/2008 | 9.01 | 3.88 |
| 7/1/2008 | 9.38 | 3.86 |
| 10/1/2008 | 9.73 | 3.25 |
| 1/1/2009 | 8.36 | 2.74 |
| 4/1/2009 | 8.22 | 3.31 |
| 7/1/2009 | 8.29 | 3.52 |
| 10/1/2009 | 8.25 | 3.46 |
| 1/1/2010 | 8.30 | 3.72 |
| 4/1/2010 | 8.02 | 3.49 |
| 7/1/2010 | 7.59 | 2.79 |
| 10/1/2010 | 7.61 | 2.86 |
| 1/1/2011 | 8.18 | 3.46 |
| 4/1/2011 | 8.04 | 3.21 |
| 7/1/2011 | 7.55 | 2.43 |
| 10/1/2011 | 7.24 | 2.05 |
| 1/1/2012 | 6.91 | 2.04 |
| 4/1/2012 | 7.05 | 1.82 |
| 7/1/2012 | 6.52 | 1.64 |
| 10/1/2012 | 6.30 | 1.71 |
| 1/1/2013 | 6.16 | 1.95 |
| 4/1/2013 | 6.29 | 2.00 |
| 7/1/2013 | 7.32 | 2.71 |
| 10/1/2013 | 7.62 | 2.75 |
| 1/1/2014 | 7.88 | 2.76 |
| 4/1/2014 | 7.49 | 2.62 |
| 7/1/2014 | 7.22 | 2.50 |
| 10/1/2014 | 7.16 | 2.28 |
| 1/1/2015 | 6.97 | 1.97 |
| 4/1/2015 | 7.14 | 2.17 |
| 7/1/2015 | 7.58 | 2.22 |
| 10/1/2015 | 7.94 | 2.19 |
Sources: FRED, Bloomberg. EME 10-year yield is a GDP-weighted average of country-specific yields.
Countries included: Indonesia, India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Israel, South Africa, Turkey
Chart 7: Net Private Flows and EME Credit Growth
Percent of GDP/Percentage Points
| Date | Net Private Flows to EMEs Ex. China | EME Private Credit Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 1/1/2001 | 0.59 | 2.47 |
| 4/1/2001 | 0.77 | 1.36 |
| 7/1/2001 | 1.25 | -0.22 |
| 10/1/2001 | 1.11 | 1.91 |
| 1/1/2002 | 1.44 | 5.01 |
| 4/1/2002 | 1.66 | 7.49 |
| 7/1/2002 | 1.18 | 6.19 |
| 10/1/2002 | 1.41 | 8.94 |
| 1/1/2003 | 1.33 | 11.28 |
| 4/1/2003 | 1.30 | 14.66 |
| 7/1/2003 | 1.31 | 19.19 |
| 10/1/2003 | 1.41 | 17.03 |
| 1/1/2004 | 1.62 | 19.63 |
| 4/1/2004 | 1.18 | 13.52 |
| 7/1/2004 | 1.08 | 14.77 |
| 10/1/2004 | 1.58 | 21.77 |
| 1/1/2005 | 1.59 | 18.15 |
| 4/1/2005 | 2.18 | 22.37 |
| 7/1/2005 | 2.36 | 23.19 |
| 10/1/2005 | 1.71 | 17.35 |
| 1/1/2006 | 1.56 | 23.75 |
| 4/1/2006 | 1.72 | 22.49 |
| 7/1/2006 | 1.55 | 22.53 |
| 10/1/2006 | 1.84 | 26.94 |
| 1/1/2007 | 2.42 | 24.96 |
| 4/1/2007 | 3.21 | 30.60 |
| 7/1/2007 | 3.81 | 34.83 |
| 10/1/2007 | 4.45 | 33.10 |
| 1/1/2008 | 4.33 | 36.19 |
| 4/1/2008 | 3.86 | 32.81 |
| 7/1/2008 | 3.53 | 18.14 |
| 10/1/2008 | 0.69 | 0.95 |
| 1/1/2009 | -0.50 | -8.22 |
| 4/1/2009 | -1.24 | -5.89 |
| 7/1/2009 | -0.36 | 2.25 |
| 10/1/2009 | 2.16 | 14.42 |
| 1/1/2010 | 3.20 | 23.36 |
| 4/1/2010 | 3.74 | 14.09 |
| 7/1/2010 | 3.53 | 17.58 |
| 10/1/2010 | 3.50 | 19.21 |
| 1/1/2011 | 3.69 | 21.14 |
| 4/1/2011 | 3.92 | 26.41 |
| 7/1/2011 | 3.13 | 9.96 |
| 10/1/2011 | 2.37 | 7.67 |
| 1/1/2012 | 1.97 | 8.70 |
| 4/1/2012 | 1.39 | 1.77 |
| 7/1/2012 | 1.74 | 11.80 |
| 10/1/2012 | 2.31 | 12.58 |
| 1/1/2013 | 2.47 | 8.42 |
| 4/1/2013 | 2.28 | 9.04 |
| 7/1/2013 | 1.82 | 6.38 |
| 10/1/2013 | 1.45 | 3.96 |
| 1/1/2014 | 0.60 | 3.30 |
| 4/1/2014 | 0.72 | 8.46 |
| 7/1/2014 | 1.04 | 2.85 |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.78 | -1.86 |
| 1/1/2015 | 1.04 | -7.11 |
| 4/1/2015 | 0.83 | -8.22 |
| 7/1/2015 | 0.31 | 0.00 |
| 10/1/2015 | 0.12 | 0.00 |
Sources: IMF BoPS, BIS credit statistics. Credit growth is a GDP-weighted ave. of change in credit to nonfinacial private sector. Net private inflows incl. net FDI, portfolio, & other flows excl. IMF lending; 4-quarter rolling ave.
Countries included: Indonesia, India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Israel, South Africa, Turkey
Chart 8: Net Private Flows and Average EMBIG Spread
Percent of GDP/Basis Points
| Date | Net Private Flows to EMEs Ex. China | Average EMBI Global Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1/1/2001 | 0.59 | 350.92 |
| 4/1/2001 | 0.77 | 373.66 |
| 7/1/2001 | 1.25 | 384.29 |
| 10/1/2001 | 1.11 | 455.02 |
| 1/1/2002 | 1.44 | 340.84 |
| 4/1/2002 | 1.66 | 331.52 |
| 7/1/2002 | 1.18 | 484.37 |
| 10/1/2002 | 1.41 | 464.27 |
| 1/1/2003 | 1.33 | 412.23 |
| 4/1/2003 | 1.30 | 338.43 |
| 7/1/2003 | 1.31 | 280.14 |
| 10/1/2003 | 1.41 | 274.53 |
| 1/1/2004 | 1.62 | 278.37 |
| 4/1/2004 | 1.18 | 286.36 |
| 7/1/2004 | 1.08 | 300.99 |
| 10/1/2004 | 1.58 | 267.58 |
| 1/1/2005 | 1.59 | 245.86 |
| 4/1/2005 | 2.18 | 280.72 |
| 7/1/2005 | 2.36 | 135.89 |
| 10/1/2005 | 1.71 | 118.02 |
| 1/1/2006 | 1.56 | 111.92 |
| 4/1/2006 | 1.72 | 108.09 |
| 7/1/2006 | 1.55 | 112.88 |
| 10/1/2006 | 1.84 | 106.83 |
| 1/1/2007 | 2.42 | 89.68 |
| 4/1/2007 | 3.21 | 82.97 |
| 7/1/2007 | 3.81 | 110.26 |
| 10/1/2007 | 4.45 | 124.86 |
| 1/1/2008 | 4.33 | 173.48 |
| 4/1/2008 | 3.86 | 171.36 |
| 7/1/2008 | 3.53 | 191.04 |
| 10/1/2008 | 0.69 | 403.16 |
| 1/1/2009 | -0.50 | 392.07 |
| 4/1/2009 | -1.24 | 311.99 |
| 7/1/2009 | -0.36 | 236.89 |
| 10/1/2009 | 2.16 | 163.63 |
| 1/1/2010 | 3.20 | 144.63 |
| 4/1/2010 | 3.74 | 134.74 |
| 7/1/2010 | 3.53 | 155.30 |
| 10/1/2010 | 3.50 | 140.61 |
| 1/1/2011 | 3.69 | 149.86 |
| 4/1/2011 | 3.92 | 159.72 |
| 7/1/2011 | 3.13 | 174.67 |
| 10/1/2011 | 2.37 | 261.10 |
| 1/1/2012 | 1.97 | 245.63 |
| 4/1/2012 | 1.39 | 239.36 |
| 7/1/2012 | 1.74 | 202.14 |
| 10/1/2012 | 2.31 | 166.97 |
| 1/1/2013 | 2.47 | 158.59 |
| 4/1/2013 | 2.28 | 181.31 |
| 7/1/2013 | 1.82 | 224.73 |
| 10/1/2013 | 1.45 | 211.38 |
| 1/1/2014 | 0.60 | 210.79 |
| 4/1/2014 | 0.72 | 180.70 |
| 7/1/2014 | 1.04 | 169.71 |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.78 | 181.79 |
| 1/1/2015 | 1.04 | 226.28 |
| 4/1/2015 | 0.83 | 198.39 |
| 7/1/2015 | 0.31 | 213.10 |
| 10/1/2015 | 0.12 | 228.14 |
Sources: IMF BoPS, JPMorgan. EMBIG spread is a GDP-weighted average of country-specific spreads. Net private inflows incl. net FDI, portfolio, & other flows excl. IMF lending; 4-quarter rolling ave.
Countries included: Indonesia, India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Israel, South Africa, Turkey
Chart 9: Net Private Flows and Emerging vs Advanced Economy Growth Differential
Percent of GDP/Percent
| Date | Net Private Flows to EMEs Ex. China | EME Ex. China vs Advanced Economy Growth Differential |
|---|---|---|
| 1/1/2001 | 0.59 | 0.15 |
| 4/1/2001 | 0.77 | 0.56 |
| 7/1/2001 | 1.25 | 0.12 |
| 10/1/2001 | 1.11 | 0.34 |
| 1/1/2002 | 1.44 | 1.58 |
| 4/1/2002 | 1.66 | 2.07 |
| 7/1/2002 | 1.18 | 1.98 |
| 10/1/2002 | 1.41 | 2.40 |
| 1/1/2003 | 1.33 | 2.48 |
| 4/1/2003 | 1.30 | 2.06 |
| 7/1/2003 | 1.31 | 1.74 |
| 10/1/2003 | 1.41 | 2.12 |
| 1/1/2004 | 1.62 | 2.56 |
| 4/1/2004 | 1.18 | 3.12 |
| 7/1/2004 | 1.08 | 3.36 |
| 10/1/2004 | 1.58 | 3.22 |
| 1/1/2005 | 1.59 | 3.02 |
| 4/1/2005 | 2.18 | 2.84 |
| 7/1/2005 | 2.36 | 2.59 |
| 10/1/2005 | 1.71 | 2.80 |
| 1/1/2006 | 1.56 | 3.03 |
| 4/1/2006 | 1.72 | 3.17 |
| 7/1/2006 | 1.55 | 4.03 |
| 10/1/2006 | 1.84 | 3.56 |
| 1/1/2007 | 2.42 | 4.10 |
| 4/1/2007 | 3.21 | 4.14 |
| 7/1/2007 | 3.81 | 3.43 |
| 10/1/2007 | 4.45 | 4.60 |
| 1/1/2008 | 4.33 | 4.69 |
| 4/1/2008 | 3.86 | 4.50 |
| 7/1/2008 | 3.53 | 4.94 |
| 10/1/2008 | 0.69 | 2.46 |
| 1/1/2009 | -0.50 | 1.61 |
| 4/1/2009 | -1.24 | 2.24 |
| 7/1/2009 | -0.36 | 2.99 |
| 10/1/2009 | 2.16 | 4.26 |
| 1/1/2010 | 3.20 | 5.37 |
| 4/1/2010 | 3.74 | 4.60 |
| 7/1/2010 | 3.53 | 2.94 |
| 10/1/2010 | 3.50 | 3.47 |
| 1/1/2011 | 3.69 | 3.93 |
| 4/1/2011 | 3.92 | 3.72 |
| 7/1/2011 | 3.13 | 3.38 |
| 10/1/2011 | 2.37 | 2.74 |
| 1/1/2012 | 1.97 | 1.87 |
| 4/1/2012 | 1.39 | 1.75 |
| 7/1/2012 | 1.74 | 2.44 |
| 10/1/2012 | 2.31 | 2.81 |
| 1/1/2013 | 2.47 | 2.58 |
| 4/1/2013 | 2.28 | 2.71 |
| 7/1/2013 | 1.82 | 2.24 |
| 10/1/2013 | 1.45 | 1.45 |
| 1/1/2014 | 0.60 | 1.56 |
| 4/1/2014 | 0.72 | 1.23 |
| 7/1/2014 | 1.04 | 0.97 |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.78 | 1.00 |
| 1/1/2015 | 1.04 | 0.33 |
| 4/1/2015 | 0.83 | -0.22 |
| 7/1/2015 | 0.31 | -0.24 |
| 10/1/2015 | 0.12 | -0.12 |
Sources: IMF BoPS, Haver. Net private inflows incl. net FDI, portfolio, & other flows excl. IMF lending; 4-quarter rolling ave. Growth differential is GDP-weighted average of EMEs' year-on-year growth less GDP-weighted average of advanced economy growth.
Countries included: Indonesia, India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Israel, South Africa, Turkey AE Countries included: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, US
Chart 10: Net Private Flows and Commodity Prices
Percent of GDP/Percentage Change
| Date | Net Private Flows to EMEs Ex. China | Change in Commodity Prices |
|---|---|---|
| 1/1/2001 | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| 4/1/2001 | 0.77 | 0.79 |
| 7/1/2001 | 1.25 | -8.80 |
| 10/1/2001 | 1.11 | -22.05 |
| 1/1/2002 | 1.44 | -14.89 |
| 4/1/2002 | 1.66 | -7.26 |
| 7/1/2002 | 1.18 | 3.52 |
| 10/1/2002 | 1.41 | 22.26 |
| 1/1/2003 | 1.33 | 28.24 |
| 4/1/2003 | 1.30 | 6.81 |
| 7/1/2003 | 1.31 | 4.33 |
| 10/1/2003 | 1.41 | 9.61 |
| 1/1/2004 | 1.62 | 9.89 |
| 4/1/2004 | 1.18 | 28.15 |
| 7/1/2004 | 1.08 | 30.54 |
| 10/1/2004 | 1.58 | 25.89 |
| 1/1/2005 | 1.59 | 23.17 |
| 4/1/2005 | 2.18 | 22.27 |
| 7/1/2005 | 2.36 | 28.76 |
| 10/1/2005 | 1.71 | 23.60 |
| 1/1/2006 | 1.56 | 23.98 |
| 4/1/2006 | 1.72 | 29.86 |
| 7/1/2006 | 1.55 | 18.38 |
| 10/1/2006 | 1.84 | 12.28 |
| 1/1/2007 | 2.42 | 4.63 |
| 4/1/2007 | 3.21 | 4.06 |
| 7/1/2007 | 3.81 | 8.31 |
| 10/1/2007 | 4.45 | 30.52 |
| 1/1/2008 | 4.33 | 45.70 |
| 4/1/2008 | 3.86 | 55.53 |
| 7/1/2008 | 3.53 | 43.67 |
| 10/1/2008 | 0.69 | -23.83 |
| 1/1/2009 | -0.50 | -41.67 |
| 4/1/2009 | -1.24 | -43.02 |
| 7/1/2009 | -0.36 | -35.16 |
| 10/1/2009 | 2.16 | 18.22 |
| 1/1/2010 | 3.20 | 45.37 |
| 4/1/2010 | 3.74 | 29.04 |
| 7/1/2010 | 3.53 | 15.42 |
| 10/1/2010 | 3.50 | 19.95 |
| 1/1/2011 | 3.69 | 30.92 |
| 4/1/2011 | 3.92 | 35.18 |
| 7/1/2011 | 3.13 | 30.54 |
| 10/1/2011 | 2.37 | 10.79 |
| 1/1/2012 | 1.97 | 2.42 |
| 4/1/2012 | 1.39 | -8.78 |
| 7/1/2012 | 1.74 | -4.79 |
| 10/1/2012 | 2.31 | -1.25 |
| 1/1/2013 | 2.47 | -4.14 |
| 4/1/2013 | 2.28 | -2.74 |
| 7/1/2013 | 1.82 | 0.60 |
| 10/1/2013 | 1.45 | -0.08 |
| 1/1/2014 | 0.60 | -2.80 |
| 4/1/2014 | 0.72 | 3.05 |
| 7/1/2014 | 1.04 | -5.28 |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.78 | -20.02 |
| 1/1/2015 | 1.04 | -35.43 |
| 4/1/2015 | 0.83 | -33.71 |
| 7/1/2015 | 0.31 | -38.56 |
| 10/1/2015 | 0.12 | -33.23 |
Sources: IMF BoPS, IMF IFS. Changes in commodity prices are quarter-on-quarter, weighted by share of world trade. Net private inflows incl. net FDI, portfolio, & other flows excl. IMF lending; 4-quarter rolling ave.
Countries included: Indonesia, India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Israel, South Africa, Turkey
Chart 11: Contributions to Net Flows (excl. China)
Percent of GDP
| Actual | Predicted | Growth Differential | Commodity Prices | Monetary Policy | Risk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002:Q1 | 1.42 | 1.37 | 0.25 | -0.04 | 2.23 | -3.28 |
| 2002:Q2 | 0.53 | 2.06 | 0.47 | 0.69 | 1.91 | -3.23 |
| 2002:Q3 | -0.28 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 0.58 | 1.78 | -4.19 |
| 2002:Q4 | 0.78 | 0.46 | 0.73 | 0.21 | 1.91 | -4.29 |
| 2003:Q1 | 0.87 | 1.52 | 0.76 | 0.67 | 2.01 | -4.00 |
| 2003:Q2 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.60 | -0.44 | 1.87 | -3.39 |
| 2003:Q3 | 0.05 | 1.49 | 0.41 | 0.12 | 1.84 | -2.83 |
| 2003:Q4 | 1.98 | 1.53 | 0.35 | 0.45 | 1.60 | -2.48 |
| 2004:Q1 | 2.36 | 2.48 | 0.58 | 0.75 | 1.54 | -2.38 |
| 2004:Q2 | -0.42 | 2.39 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 1.45 | -2.44 |
| 2004:Q3 | -0.21 | 1.35 | 0.82 | 0.54 | 1.16 | -2.42 |
| 2004:Q4 | 3.55 | 1.46 | 0.89 | 0.29 | 1.08 | -2.30 |
| 2005:Q1 | 2.30 | 2.63 | 0.74 | 0.55 | 1.00 | -2.13 |
| 2005:Q2 | 2.55 | 2.05 | 0.66 | 0.58 | 0.88 | -2.20 |
| 2005:Q3 | 1.08 | 2.83 | 0.62 | 0.88 | 0.72 | -1.65 |
| 2005:Q4 | 2.50 | 1.70 | 0.63 | 0.09 | 0.67 | -1.39 |
| 2006:Q1 | 2.56 | 2.63 | 0.68 | 0.52 | 0.52 | -1.24 |
| 2006:Q2 | 3.27 | 2.96 | 0.78 | 0.90 | 0.44 | -1.21 |
| 2006:Q3 | -0.04 | 2.54 | 0.95 | 0.30 | 0.40 | -1.22 |
| 2006:Q4 | 2.55 | 1.23 | 0.88 | -0.44 | 0.50 | -1.15 |
| 2007:Q1 | 4.15 | 2.49 | 0.99 | -0.12 | 0.54 | -1.07 |
| 2007:Q2 | 6.54 | 3.60 | 1.00 | 0.70 | 0.48 | -1.03 |
| 2007:Q3 | 1.55 | 3.55 | 0.88 | 0.54 | 0.60 | -1.31 |
| 2007:Q4 | 4.50 | 3.12 | 1.07 | 0.96 | 0.90 | -1.45 |
| 2008:Q1 | 2.97 | 4.21 | 1.21 | 1.02 | 1.52 | -1.80 |
| 2008:Q2 | 4.39 | 4.30 | 1.20 | 1.46 | 1.70 | -1.76 |
| 2008:Q3 | 1.12 | 2.80 | 1.32 | 0.16 | 1.39 | -1.96 |
| 2008:Q4 | -8.03 | -3.07 | 0.78 | -3.69 | 2.06 | -3.83 |
| 2009:Q1 | -1.91 | -3.27 | 0.41 | -2.06 | 1.57 | -4.16 |
| 2009:Q2 | 0.68 | 0.92 | 0.32 | 0.52 | 1.33 | -3.50 |
| 2009:Q3 | 4.61 | 2.12 | 0.45 | 0.85 | 1.31 | -2.69 |
| 2009:Q4 | 3.84 | 3.41 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 1.15 | -2.21 |
| 2010:Q1 | 2.75 | 3.32 | 1.18 | 0.55 | 1.02 | -1.89 |
| 2010:Q2 | 3.89 | 2.68 | 1.19 | 0.32 | 0.98 | -1.92 |
| 2010:Q3 | 3.89 | 2.42 | 0.82 | 0.00 | 1.10 | -1.98 |
| 2010:Q4 | 3.61 | 3.78 | 0.79 | 0.86 | 1.23 | -1.73 |
| 2011:Q1 | 4.19 | 3.89 | 0.90 | 1.19 | 1.24 | -1.64 |
| 2011:Q2 | 4.07 | 3.54 | 0.94 | 0.71 | 1.27 | -1.59 |
| 2011:Q3 | 0.62 | 2.44 | 0.95 | -0.15 | 1.29 | -1.91 |
| 2011:Q4 | 0.56 | 0.96 | 0.78 | -0.36 | 1.17 | -2.38 |
| 2012:Q1 | 1.88 | 1.73 | 0.57 | 0.32 | 1.10 | -2.15 |
| 2012:Q2 | 2.02 | 1.00 | 0.47 | -0.34 | 0.93 | -2.13 |
| 2012:Q3 | 2.23 | 1.83 | 0.53 | -0.11 | 0.96 | -1.92 |
| 2012:Q4 | 2.46 | 2.14 | 0.66 | -0.08 | 1.01 | -1.70 |
| 2013:Q1 | 2.61 | 2.38 | 0.65 | 0.18 | 0.92 | -1.56 |
| 2013:Q2 | 0.88 | 1.55 | 0.65 | -0.27 | 0.70 | -1.69 |
| 2013:Q3 | 0.99 | 1.75 | 0.53 | 0.15 | 0.98 | -1.84 |
| 2013:Q4 | 0.87 | 1.38 | 0.34 | -0.07 | 1.09 | -1.81 |
| 2014:Q1 | -0.85 | 1.51 | 0.31 | -0.02 | 1.18 | -1.83 |
| 2014:Q2 | 1.57 | 1.30 | 0.19 | 0.10 | 1.22 | -1.67 |
| 2014:Q3 | 1.60 | 1.12 | 0.08 | -0.36 | 1.00 | -1.61 |
| 2014:Q4 | -0.33 | -0.01 | 0.08 | -1.41 | 0.84 | -1.74 |
| 2015:Q1 | -0.47 | -1.38 | -0.10 | -1.89 | 0.59 | -2.05 |
| 2015:Q2 | 0.23 | 0.69 | -0.28 | -0.18 | 0.68 | -1.88 |
| 2015:Q3 | -0.72 | -0.65 | -0.33 | -0.98 | 0.70 | -2.03 |
| 2015:Q4 | -0.33 | -0.85 | -0.33 | -0.97 | 0.58 | -2.13 |
4-quarter rolling averages. Source: IMF BoPS, authors' calculations.
Countries included: Indonesia, India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Israel, South Africa, Turkey