International Finance Discussion Papers
		Staff working papers in the International Finance Discussion Paper (IFDP) series are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors. References in publications to the International Finance Discussion Paper series (other than acknowledgment) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. Hard copies of IFDPs may be ordered.

1996-575
Theoretical Confidence Level Problems with Confidence Intervals for the Spectrum of a Time Series
Jon Faust
Abstract | Full paper (246 KB PDF) | Full paper (263 KB Postscript)

1996-574
Net Foreign Assets and Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Panel Evidence
Joseph E. Gagnon
Abstract | Full paper (314 KB PDF)

1996-573
Timing of Childbearing, Family Size, and Economic Growth
Murat F. Iyigun
Abstract | Full paper (254 KB PDF) | Full paper (6173 KB Postscript)

1996-572
Money, Politics, and the Post-War Business Cycle
Jon Faust and John Irons
Abstract | Full paper (738 KB PDF)

1996-571
Implications of Economic Interdependence and Exchange Rate Policy on Endogenous Wage Indexation Decisions
Jay H. Bryson, Chih-huan Chen, and David D. VanHoose
Abstract | Full paper (92 KB PDF)

1996-570
The Reaction of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to News Releases
Hali J. Edison
Abstract | Full paper (589 KB PDF)

1996-569
The Role of Credit in Post-Stabilization Consumption Booms
Martina Copelman
Abstract | Full paper (2696 KB PDF)

1996-568
Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index
Kari H. Eika, Neil R. Ericsson, and Ragnar Nymoen
Abstract | Full paper (531 KB PDF)

1996-567
Financial Innovation and the Speed of Adjustment of Money Demand: Evidence from Bolivia, Israel, and Venezuela
Martina Copelman
Abstract | Full paper (2381 KB PDF)

1996-566
Long-Term Evidence on the Tobin and Fisher Effects: A New Approach
Shaghil Ahmed and John H. Rogers
Abstract | Full paper (384 KB PDF)

1996-565
Some Evidence on the Efficacy of the UK Inflation Targeting Regime: An Out-of-Sample Forecast Approach
Chan Huh
Abstract | Full paper (2808 KB PDF)

1996-564
The Use of the Parallel Market Rate as a Guide to Setting the Official Exchange Rate
Nita Ghei and Steven B. Kamin
Abstract | Full paper (4689 KB PDF)

1996-563
Country Fund Discounts and the Mexican Crisis of December 1994: Did Local Residents Turn Pessimistic Before International Investors?
Jeffrey A. Frankel and Sergio L. Schmukler
Abstract | Full paper (3057 KB PDF)

1996-562
Eastern European Export Performance during the Transition
Nathan Sheets and Simona Boata
Abstract | Full paper (2679 KB PDF)

1996-561
Inflation-Adjusted Potential Output
Jane T. Haltmaier
Abstract

1996-560
The Management of Financial Risks at German Nonfinancial Firms: The Case of Metallgesellschaft
Allen B. Frankel and David E. Palmer
Abstract | Full paper (91 KB PDF)

1996-559
Broad Money Demand and Financial Liberalization in Greece
Neil R. Ericsson and Sunil Sharma
Abstract | Full paper (746 KB PDF)

1996-558
Stockholding Behavior of U.S. Households: Evidence from the 1983-89 Survey of Consumer Finances
Carol C. Bertaut
Abstract | Full paper (3486 KB PDF)

1996-557
Firm Size and the Impact of Profit-Margin Uncertainty on Investment: Do Financing Constraints Play a Role?
Vivek Ghosal and Prakash Loungani
Abstract | Full paper (160 KB PDF)

1996-556
Regulation and the Cost of Capital in Japan: A Case Study
John Ammer and Michael S. Gibson
Abstract | Full paper (403 KB PDF)

1996-555
The Sovereignty Option: The Quebec Referendum and Market Views on the Canadian Dollar
Michael P. Leahy and Charles P. Thomas
Abstract | Full paper (120 KB PDF)

1996-554
Real Exchange Rates and Inflation in Exchange-Rate Based Stabilizations: An Empirical Examination
Steven B. Kamin
Abstract

1996-553
Macroeconomic State Variables as Determinants of Asset Price Covariances
John Ammer
Abstract | Full paper (193 KB PDF)

1996-552
The Tequila Effect: Theory and Evidence from Argentina
Martin Uribe
Abstract | Full paper (523 KB PDF) | Full paper (784 KB Postscript)

1996-551
The Accumulation of Human Capital: Alternative Methods and Why They Matter
Murat F. Iyigun and Ann L. Owen
Abstract

1996-550
Alternatives in Human Capital Accumulation: Implications for Economic Growth
Murat F. Iyigun and Ann L. Owen
Abstract | Full paper (209 KB PDF) | Full paper (3319 KB Postscript)

1996-549
More Evidence on the Link between Bank Health and Investment in Japan
Michael S. Gibson
Abstract | Full paper (74 KB PDF)

1996-548
The Syndrome of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization and the Uncertain Duration of Currency Pegs
Enrique G. Mendoza and Martin Uribe
Abstract

1996-547
German Unification: What Have We Learned from Multi-Country Models?
Joseph E. Gagnon, Paul R. Masson, and Warwick J. McKibbin
Abstract | Full paper (606 KB PDF)

1996-546
Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications
Susanto Basu and John G. Fernald
Abstract | Full paper (3891 KB PDF)

1996-545
Mexico's Balance-of-Payments Crisis: A Chronicle of Death Foretold
Guillermo A. Calvo and Enrique G. Mendoza
Abstract | Full paper (3084 KB PDF)

1996-544
The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems
Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carmen M. Reinhart
Abstract

1996-543
High Real Interest Rates in the Aftermath of Disinflation: Is It a Lack of Credibility?
Graciela L. Kaminsky and Leonardo Leiderman
Abstract

1996-542
Precautionary Portfolio Behavior from a Life-Cycle Perspective
Carol C. Bertaut and Michael Haliassos
Abstract | Full paper (3283 KB PDF)

1996-541
Using Options Prices to Infer PDF's for Asset Prices: An Application to Oil Prices during the Gulf Crisis
William R. Melick and Charles P. Thomas
Abstract | Full paper (205 KB PDF)

1996-540
Monetary Policy in the End-Game to Exchange-Rate Based Stabilizations: The Case of Mexico
Steven B. Kamin and John H. Rogers
Abstract

1996-539
Comparing the Welfare Costs and the Initial Dynamics of Alternative Temporary Stabilization Policies
Martin Uribe
Abstract

1996-538
Long Memory in Inflation Expectations: Evidence from International Financial Markets
Joseph E. Gagnon
Abstract | Full paper (43 KB PDF)

1996-537
Using Measures of Expectations to Identify the Effects of a Monetary Policy Shock
Allan D. Brunner
Abstract | Full paper (2293 KB PDF)

1996-536
Regime Switching in the Dynamic Relationship between the Federal Funds Rate and Innovations in Nonborrowed Reserves
Chan Huh
Abstract | Full paper (2528 KB PDF)

1996-535
The Risks and Implications of External Financial Shocks: Lessons from Mexico
Edwin M. Truman
Abstract

1996-534
Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Treatment
Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose
Abstract | Full paper (2002 KB PDF)

1996-533
Regional Patterns in the Law of One Price: The Roles of Geography vs. Currencies
Charles Engel and John H. Rogers
Abstract