Keywords: Mortgage prepayments, M2, refinancing, home sales
Abstract: Mortgage prepayments can contribute significantly to fluctuations in M2 growth rates.
These mortgage prepayment effects are primarily driven by certain rules of mortgage-backed-security
(MBS) insurers that require mortgage servicers to hold in M2-type deposits the prepayment proceeds
due to MBS investors. This paper provides a methodology for estimating prepayment effects on M2.
The effects are estimated separately for refinancing and home sales. The results indicate that
excluding the mortgage prepayment effects from M2 produces smoother monthly growth rates.
The stability of the relationship between money and GDP as measured by M2 velocity is also
increased. Refinancing prepayments account for most of the prepayment effects on M2.
Full paper (224 KB PDF)
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Last update: October 6, 2005