Finance and Economics Discussion Series: 2007-40 Screen Reader version
♣Housing and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism
Frederic S. Mishkin
Member
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
August 2007
Figure 1 Data, Table 1 of 4 (Quarterly Frequency):
Real House Prices in the Advanced Foreign Economies
(Deflated with CPI; Percent change from year earlier)
| Quarter |
Australia |
Denmark |
Finland |
France |
Greece |
Ireland, Owner-Occupied Homes |
Ireland, Rented Apartments |
New Zealand |
Norway |
Spain |
Sweden |
Switzerland, Owner-Occupied Homes |
Switzerland, Rented Apartments |
United States |
| 1992-1 |
1.675 |
ND |
-18.1069 |
ND |
ND |
0.2828 |
-0.3432 |
-1.903 |
-3.7315 |
ND |
-8.5539 |
-5.7095 |
-4.7729 |
-1.0728 |
| 1992-2 |
1.4262 |
ND |
-18.4629 |
ND |
ND |
2.2981 |
0.4913 |
0.3275 |
-1.6243 |
ND |
-8.8055 |
-6.1481 |
-7.4794 |
-1.4763 |
| 1992-3 |
-0.9784 |
ND |
-17.6675 |
ND |
ND |
1.0549 |
-2.0795 |
0.1303 |
-1.8133 |
ND |
-11.907 |
-10.978 |
-10.1437 |
-0.5913 |
| 1992-4 |
0.3984 |
ND |
-17.612 |
ND |
ND |
-1.8411 |
-2.534 |
0.3654 |
-2.3 |
ND |
-16.6528 |
-9.4306 |
-9.1853 |
-0.8238 |
| 1993-1 |
1.1329 |
-6.7718 |
-18.0224 |
ND |
ND |
-4.2632 |
-1.2476 |
2.1804 |
-5.2745 |
ND |
-19.1987 |
-8.7543 |
-10.4468 |
-2.0947 |
| 1993-2 |
0.7237 |
-8.0368 |
-14.9618 |
ND |
ND |
0.6946 |
0.6983 |
1.4006 |
-5.7817 |
ND |
-17.5714 |
-8.575 |
-7.628 |
-0.8123 |
| 1993-3 |
0.5518 |
-1.9619 |
-8.4574 |
ND |
ND |
1.045 |
0.4388 |
2.5716 |
-4.6766 |
ND |
-15.1579 |
-8.4708 |
-6.5415 |
-0.5237 |
| 1993-4 |
0.8104 |
6.5244 |
-8.8141 |
ND |
ND |
-0.9484 |
2.5218 |
4.9086 |
-4.349 |
ND |
-7.9073 |
-6.9751 |
-4.0294 |
-0.3815 |
| 1994-1 |
1.3645 |
14.7558 |
2.2226 |
ND |
ND |
5.4717 |
4.8646 |
9.7965 |
2.3015 |
ND |
0.5375 |
-3.013 |
-0.4516 |
0.862 |
| 1994-2 |
1.672 |
15.0802 |
2.6101 |
ND |
ND |
0.3649 |
2.0582 |
12.5892 |
2.0323 |
ND |
3.0246 |
-1.9163 |
-0.7981 |
0.949 |
| 1994-3 |
2.8165 |
8.2288 |
-0.9861 |
ND |
ND |
-2.5183 |
5.3135 |
12.9368 |
3.4757 |
ND |
4.2564 |
1.6358 |
-0.9721 |
0.3385 |
| 1994-4 |
0.8082 |
3.0279 |
-1.2644 |
ND |
ND |
5.0193 |
-2.6095 |
11.3345 |
4.8546 |
ND |
1.6417 |
-0.308 |
-2.3051 |
0.0861 |
| 1995-1 |
-0.526 |
-1.4863 |
-6.2714 |
ND |
ND |
3.7059 |
-2.0568 |
6.2148 |
3.6368 |
ND |
-0.4422 |
-3.9734 |
-4.546 |
-0.4941 |
| 1995-2 |
-3.023 |
1.4539 |
-3.5183 |
ND |
ND |
3.8024 |
3.7474 |
4.072 |
7.295 |
ND |
-1.6315 |
-5.5175 |
-4.3676 |
-0.8948 |
| 1995-3 |
-4.8359 |
4.7735 |
-4.7053 |
ND |
ND |
6.3475 |
3.0355 |
4.9712 |
5.0001 |
ND |
-3.2447 |
-6.336 |
-4.5743 |
-0.2574 |
| 1995-4 |
-4.615 |
6.6026 |
-2.8599 |
-3.1062 |
ND |
4.6261 |
10.4676 |
6.33 |
6.2616 |
ND |
-3.1711 |
-6.4584 |
-4.9085 |
-0.113 |
| 1996-1 |
-4.4625 |
7.0687 |
-0.2887 |
-21.0181 |
ND |
2.5892 |
7.5526 |
9.8183 |
7.465 |
-1.3217 |
-2.0493 |
-6.9717 |
-4.4644 |
0.4118 |
| 1996-2 |
-1.9337 |
6.6222 |
0.2756 |
-19.4614 |
ND |
8.3756 |
12.6221 |
9.7732 |
3.9348 |
-1.867 |
-1.8548 |
-6.4612 |
-4.0902 |
0.384 |
| 1996-3 |
-1.002 |
8.1712 |
3.4475 |
-17.0556 |
ND |
15.3163 |
15.815 |
6.52 |
3.0568 |
-2.3506 |
1.5158 |
-4.9289 |
-3.7353 |
0.0745 |
| 1996-4 |
0.2043 |
9.8916 |
5.9883 |
-17.1933 |
ND |
11.9432 |
14.088 |
5.2861 |
0.8519 |
-2.9664 |
3.6121 |
-5.7983 |
-5.2566 |
-0.1213 |
| 1997-1 |
1.5453 |
11.1203 |
8.9829 |
-2.5261 |
ND |
12.5585 |
15.9316 |
4.882 |
-1.8234 |
-1.7902 |
4.5083 |
-4.7693 |
-4.707 |
-0.266 |
| 1997-2 |
2.4777 |
12.432 |
10.2337 |
0.0188 |
ND |
17.0565 |
14.3503 |
5.102 |
0.2823 |
2.6082 |
6.8662 |
-4.5828 |
-6.0413 |
0.5937 |
| 1997-3 |
4.6528 |
12.3419 |
13.8795 |
-1.0104 |
ND |
13.5788 |
15.6446 |
5.426 |
3.2817 |
3.4133 |
6.3897 |
-4.1791 |
-5.6298 |
0.8146 |
| 1997-4 |
6.2494 |
9.0081 |
12.0404 |
-1.3182 |
ND |
20.5634 |
27.5211 |
4.0309 |
5.4641 |
-0.6384 |
5.8451 |
-2.3121 |
-3.7594 |
1.5124 |
| 1998-1 |
7.8229 |
8.3882 |
12.2352 |
1.0221 |
ND |
24.6277 |
26.8029 |
-0.9779 |
5.819 |
1.8506 |
8.3016 |
-0.7144 |
-3.0558 |
2.5384 |
| 1998-2 |
7.8857 |
8.9894 |
10.5124 |
0.192 |
ND |
19.8493 |
28.6351 |
-4.0975 |
5.9204 |
2.8504 |
8.5007 |
-0.4659 |
-2.107 |
2.8737 |
| 1998-3 |
5.3895 |
7.4099 |
9.3147 |
1.6453 |
ND |
16.4209 |
32.6147 |
-4.3567 |
7.6343 |
4.9521 |
10.1565 |
-1.3422 |
-0.7287 |
3.4389 |
| 1998-4 |
4.8019 |
7.5213 |
8.995 |
2.1971 |
ND |
18.6009 |
24.9029 |
-2.4294 |
6.7406 |
6.1744 |
12.1945 |
-1.0465 |
0.5406 |
4.0935 |
| 1999-1 |
4.4255 |
7.5675 |
6.4198 |
5.9092 |
5.9984 |
18.2168 |
27.2294 |
0.575 |
8.3747 |
6.9825 |
9.2183 |
-0.9928 |
0.14 |
4.1351 |
| 1999-2 |
4.6679 |
5.0434 |
6.9858 |
5.5861 |
6.3462 |
13.5216 |
18.1573 |
3.7347 |
8.4193 |
3.4599 |
9.633 |
-0.8713 |
0.0649 |
3.8094 |
| 1999-3 |
6.0717 |
4.8446 |
7.0612 |
7.2912 |
7.3785 |
18.8393 |
16.8397 |
3.8124 |
5.1794 |
4.1328 |
9.2736 |
-1.3203 |
-1.4952 |
3.8111 |
| 1999-4 |
7.5427 |
3.4716 |
8.1728 |
7.2001 |
6.6728 |
12.7182 |
14.1388 |
1.1283 |
4.8383 |
6.7779 |
7.3612 |
-0.5624 |
-1.4105 |
3.4645 |
| 2000-1 |
6.7354 |
2.2751 |
11.11 |
7.201 |
6.9933 |
7.8834 |
8.6398 |
-1.1167 |
4.3453 |
6.5526 |
9.3005 |
-2.3113 |
-1.7987 |
3.1408 |
| 2000-2 |
6.2745 |
3.1455 |
6.0358 |
7.4442 |
7.3337 |
11.4816 |
15.0469 |
-2.9688 |
6.4867 |
5.7605 |
10.1458 |
-0.6595 |
-0.509 |
3.3894 |
| 2000-3 |
1.3577 |
0.6846 |
1.6082 |
6.6508 |
7.7047 |
5.839 |
11.3317 |
-3.6708 |
4.551 |
3.9456 |
10.6201 |
0.412 |
1.4861 |
3.3041 |
| 2000-4 |
0.7385 |
1.6398 |
1.0648 |
6.0536 |
7.8446 |
7.8307 |
7.9569 |
-4.1184 |
6.7009 |
3.5253 |
10.7603 |
0.0879 |
0.5805 |
3.6536 |
| 2001-1 |
0.7605 |
1.8697 |
-0.5141 |
6.2733 |
10.3757 |
9.5346 |
12.7696 |
-2.6136 |
5.0245 |
5.0824 |
10.3898 |
1.3473 |
2.7254 |
3.7846 |
| 2001-2 |
2.1682 |
0.4645 |
-0.0413 |
5.9145 |
10.4619 |
7.6511 |
7.4974 |
-2.0233 |
2.2978 |
6.1736 |
5.5629 |
0.3791 |
2.5906 |
3.917 |
| 2001-3 |
11.1925 |
2.7645 |
0.5649 |
5.3929 |
10.3462 |
1.6028 |
-0.4953 |
-0.5522 |
6.3665 |
7.3822 |
3.7093 |
0.1474 |
3.2092 |
4.6205 |
| 2001-4 |
11.9384 |
0.4214 |
1.1754 |
6.3654 |
10.1487 |
-3.095 |
-2.4084 |
2.0738 |
5.0822 |
8.6878 |
2.1961 |
1.8637 |
4.636 |
5.2473 |
| 2002-1 |
14.9213 |
0.3576 |
3.6594 |
4.7947 |
9.279 |
-1.2041 |
-0.4308 |
4.0045 |
7.2914 |
9.576 |
0.9082 |
3.8861 |
5.4961 |
5.7959 |
| 2002-2 |
17.7056 |
1.0255 |
5.673 |
4.8216 |
11.2475 |
0.0258 |
1.6762 |
5.9662 |
5.595 |
12.0573 |
3.2472 |
3.1267 |
7.0586 |
5.9506 |
| 2002-3 |
16.0224 |
0.1755 |
7.8632 |
7.3002 |
9.2608 |
6.6263 |
7.5166 |
8.3639 |
5.9147 |
12.2949 |
5.3445 |
4.296 |
7.5612 |
6.1475 |
| 2002-4 |
16.174 |
1.1002 |
6.7013 |
7.8939 |
8.654 |
9.2164 |
14.3552 |
10.8502 |
3.2504 |
12.8129 |
6.8707 |
4.4877 |
8.0601 |
5.9181 |
| 2003-1 |
13.7052 |
-0.6427 |
4.8173 |
8.2772 |
5.9668 |
7.3943 |
8.8601 |
13.1083 |
0.2369 |
12.6845 |
4.829 |
2.1807 |
7.314 |
5.3655 |
| 2003-2 |
13.7114 |
0.2336 |
6.5437 |
10.2168 |
0.4755 |
8.5463 |
13.2123 |
15.4712 |
3.2924 |
13.9019 |
5.0683 |
3.1233 |
6.8643 |
5.911 |
| 2003-3 |
15.7889 |
0.821 |
5.8087 |
8.9781 |
1.1957 |
8.9679 |
11.8799 |
19.0264 |
0.0955 |
14.2917 |
3.8615 |
2.9023 |
5.4545 |
5.8083 |
| 2003-4 |
16.6219 |
1.0095 |
9.8807 |
9.9057 |
0.0525 |
10.3926 |
11.6773 |
22.1533 |
2.1504 |
15.3707 |
4.8057 |
1.1391 |
3.0276 |
6.4106 |
| 2004-1 |
13.5419 |
4.0141 |
8.9034 |
11.9039 |
-1.7182 |
8.9866 |
10.2458 |
20.8655 |
3.7958 |
15.74 |
7.6217 |
2.4278 |
1.7055 |
6.9328 |
| 2004-2 |
6.0845 |
5.3221 |
10.0375 |
12.1489 |
-0.8566 |
8.3871 |
10.3588 |
18.3074 |
1.2766 |
13.8603 |
9.2449 |
1.1544 |
2.3746 |
6.4711 |
| 2004-3 |
0.3402 |
7.1641 |
9.5487 |
12.7676 |
-0.6457 |
8.016 |
7.3945 |
13.4271 |
2.4396 |
13.0941 |
9.228 |
1.3594 |
1.3876 |
7.0861 |
| 2004-4 |
-2.3516 |
8.9218 |
6.2109 |
13.315 |
0.4731 |
8.5589 |
8.4673 |
9.5348 |
1.6181 |
13.2893 |
9.5386 |
1.2432 |
1.3327 |
6.6782 |
| 2005-1 |
-2.2043 |
10.6243 |
8.404 |
13.5371 |
4.1262 |
8.874 |
8.9332 |
9.5688 |
3.111 |
12.0011 |
8.0174 |
0.0458 |
1.2716 |
7.1969 |
| 2005-2 |
-0.5615 |
12.5773 |
4.5938 |
13.2692 |
6.8894 |
9.5069 |
7.8512 |
9.9753 |
5.6624 |
10.3555 |
7.3728 |
-0.2516 |
0.4712 |
7.764 |
| 2005-3 |
-1.2825 |
15.2169 |
4.5714 |
13.1472 |
8.1436 |
8.0848 |
9.2994 |
10.1243 |
6.5807 |
9.6439 |
8.9536 |
-0.3845 |
1.0731 |
6.87 |
| 2005-4 |
-0.5366 |
19.4301 |
6.1769 |
12.6997 |
9.3637 |
7.0765 |
11.3052 |
10.9741 |
8.5746 |
8.8607 |
9.7228 |
0.2211 |
1.3145 |
6.6565 |
| 2006-1 |
0.934 |
21.4583 |
4.9922 |
12.5478 |
ND |
8.4497 |
11.3418 |
8.5842 |
4.9613 |
7.593 |
12.5486 |
1.1277 |
1.0749 |
6.1133 |
| 2006-2 |
3.1657 |
20.6391 |
6.6129 |
10.5012 |
ND |
8.81 |
10.9081 |
6.2625 |
4.253 |
6.5298 |
11.2951 |
2.4074 |
-0.8092 |
4.222 |
| 2006-3 |
5.9731 |
16.6635 |
6.9976 |
8.9524 |
ND |
9.1352 |
15.7588 |
6.2218 |
2.0847 |
6.0598 |
10.2556 |
0.7766 |
-0.3273 |
2.6495 |
| 2006-4 |
6.2428 |
10.2176 |
5.6873 |
8.3074 |
ND |
6.3833 |
4.2388 |
6.7046 |
1.2763 |
6.3353 |
8.8325 |
1.3482 |
1.4135 |
2.3261 |
| 2007-1 |
7.2494 |
4.8109 |
10.8785 |
6.691 |
ND |
5.9653 |
5.979 |
8.5943 |
ND |
4.6308 |
5.9077 |
2.4375 |
2.196 |
0.5153 |
| 2007-2 |
7.0347 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
3.2967 |
7.9087 |
0.8873 |
2.4594 |
ND |
| 2007-3 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2007-4 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2008-1 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2008-2 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2008-3 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2008-4 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
Figure 1 Data, Table 2 of 4 (Monthly Frequency):
Real House Prices in the Advanced Foreign Economies
(Deflated with CPI; Percent change from year earlier)
| Month |
Canada |
Netherlands |
United Kingdom, Nationwide |
United Kingdom, Halifax |
| 1992-1 |
-3.3412 |
ND |
-8.4593 |
-10.1508 |
| 1992-2 |
-1.7837 |
ND |
-9.222 |
-10.4287 |
| 1992-3 |
-2.1144 |
ND |
-8.3032 |
-11.2866 |
| 1992-4 |
-1.4568 |
ND |
-7.5602 |
-9.9028 |
| 1992-5 |
-1.9526 |
ND |
-7.0665 |
-9.9156 |
| 1992-6 |
-1.5432 |
ND |
-7.487 |
-9.3637 |
| 1992-7 |
-1.4775 |
ND |
-6.6885 |
-8.7625 |
| 1992-8 |
-1.1134 |
ND |
-6.1563 |
-8.5006 |
| 1992-9 |
-1.4428 |
ND |
-6.9365 |
-10.6312 |
| 1992-10 |
-1.5036 |
ND |
-7.8668 |
-11.0818 |
| 1992-11 |
-0.9581 |
ND |
-8.9426 |
-10.1219 |
| 1992-12 |
-1.4913 |
ND |
-8.6352 |
-9.663 |
| 1993-1 |
-1.5352 |
ND |
-5.7006 |
-9.4134 |
| 1993-2 |
-1.2765 |
ND |
-4.9452 |
-9.1655 |
| 1993-3 |
-0.4134 |
ND |
-5.7232 |
-7.2234 |
| 1993-4 |
-0.2209 |
ND |
-3.1049 |
-4.2964 |
| 1993-5 |
-0.392 |
ND |
-5.7857 |
-5.7584 |
| 1993-6 |
-0.1572 |
ND |
-2.3777 |
-6.9171 |
| 1993-7 |
-0.3739 |
ND |
-3.2824 |
-6.0437 |
| 1993-8 |
-0.3911 |
ND |
-3.8379 |
-5.3169 |
| 1993-9 |
-0.0945 |
ND |
-2.8004 |
-1.8621 |
| 1993-10 |
-0.5998 |
ND |
-1.7299 |
-0.9211 |
| 1993-11 |
-0.6957 |
ND |
-0.4711 |
-0.7352 |
| 1993-12 |
-0.4595 |
ND |
0.912 |
-0.8774 |
| 1994-1 |
0.1871 |
10.9701 |
0.6307 |
-1.3683 |
| 1994-2 |
0.7693 |
13.1188 |
0.0164 |
1.1385 |
| 1994-3 |
0.1765 |
13.7015 |
1.5596 |
0.1344 |
| 1994-4 |
-0.0976 |
12.4547 |
-2.522 |
-2.3044 |
| 1994-5 |
0.3328 |
13.4078 |
-0.2228 |
-1.7941 |
| 1994-6 |
0.215 |
13.1301 |
-4.1362 |
-0.41 |
| 1994-7 |
-0.2143 |
13.3401 |
-1.87 |
-0.471 |
| 1994-8 |
-0.2139 |
12.6394 |
-1.8231 |
-1.9483 |
| 1994-9 |
-0.3109 |
12.0701 |
-0.865 |
-2.1398 |
| 1994-10 |
0.1353 |
11.3073 |
1.6153 |
-2.3414 |
| 1994-11 |
-0.2927 |
11.0485 |
0.7665 |
-2.7788 |
| 1994-12 |
-0.6392 |
8.2841 |
-0.6968 |
-2.1168 |
| 1995-1 |
-1.0804 |
8.5324 |
-3.5383 |
-1.924 |
| 1995-2 |
-2.3374 |
5.6942 |
-3.6053 |
-3.9852 |
| 1995-3 |
-2.657 |
4.4955 |
-3.48 |
-4.4508 |
| 1995-4 |
-3.0699 |
6.2026 |
-1.3365 |
-4.3174 |
| 1995-5 |
-3.6104 |
5.2537 |
-1.625 |
-4.1625 |
| 1995-6 |
-3.9702 |
3.3109 |
-2.7695 |
-4.1677 |
| 1995-7 |
-3.7434 |
3.0825 |
-3.4529 |
-5.4827 |
| 1995-8 |
-3.5027 |
4.3624 |
-3.3217 |
-4.6655 |
| 1995-9 |
-3.5958 |
4.7959 |
-4.2097 |
-4.6322 |
| 1995-10 |
-4.0911 |
5.8573 |
-6.7085 |
-4.607 |
| 1995-11 |
-4.0605 |
5.3111 |
-5.1381 |
-3.9084 |
| 1995-12 |
-3.5357 |
9.4864 |
-5.1982 |
-4.0671 |
| 1996-1 |
-3.5186 |
7.3643 |
-3.1479 |
-3.2945 |
| 1996-2 |
-3.3806 |
9.0732 |
-1.6224 |
-2.2842 |
| 1996-3 |
-3.6951 |
8.4629 |
-2.7938 |
-1.3172 |
| 1996-4 |
-3.9847 |
9.6341 |
-1.4213 |
-0.1545 |
| 1996-5 |
-3.7796 |
8.5536 |
-0.9572 |
1.913 |
| 1996-6 |
-3.3969 |
9.622 |
1.41 |
1.5389 |
| 1996-7 |
-3.2888 |
11.1916 |
1.5382 |
3.1366 |
| 1996-8 |
-3.5075 |
10.4014 |
3.0828 |
3.5639 |
| 1996-9 |
-3.4103 |
11.4429 |
4.151 |
2.891 |
| 1996-10 |
-3.2555 |
9.7157 |
5.3763 |
4.6751 |
| 1996-11 |
-2.7898 |
11.7809 |
5.9483 |
4.5066 |
| 1996-12 |
-3.1029 |
10.5879 |
6.1753 |
6.1839 |
| 1997-1 |
-2.8083 |
9.5183 |
6.0651 |
4.9399 |
| 1997-2 |
-2.2198 |
10.1474 |
6.5164 |
5.0053 |
| 1997-3 |
-1.5889 |
11.2804 |
7.7363 |
5.258 |
| 1997-4 |
-0.8691 |
9.865 |
7.1998 |
4.7671 |
| 1997-5 |
-0.4457 |
11.3915 |
8.2894 |
4.6432 |
| 1997-6 |
-0.6563 |
11.0691 |
9.0118 |
5.0898 |
| 1997-7 |
-0.5666 |
10.517 |
10.1036 |
4.3555 |
| 1997-8 |
-0.6745 |
9.7029 |
9.9037 |
4.5289 |
| 1997-9 |
-0.5629 |
9.8124 |
10.7867 |
5.1307 |
| 1997-10 |
-0.2281 |
10.7616 |
10.204 |
3.3798 |
| 1997-11 |
0.214 |
11.1773 |
9.5265 |
4.1297 |
| 1997-12 |
0.5264 |
11.1314 |
10.9122 |
2.8032 |
| 1998-1 |
-0.016 |
11.0001 |
11.4799 |
4.3155 |
| 1998-2 |
-0.1057 |
9.927 |
11.0938 |
3.7746 |
| 1998-3 |
0.0042 |
10.6466 |
10.3551 |
3.3003 |
| 1998-4 |
0.0139 |
10.3882 |
10.0105 |
3.7084 |
| 1998-5 |
-0.0968 |
10.1859 |
9.6704 |
2.8344 |
| 1998-6 |
0.0033 |
11.1105 |
9.3 |
3.7182 |
| 1998-7 |
0.113 |
9.6646 |
9.286 |
4.2906 |
| 1998-8 |
0.2246 |
10.9609 |
7.7629 |
3.6824 |
| 1998-9 |
0.3453 |
11.8545 |
5.9847 |
3.8815 |
| 1998-10 |
-0.1036 |
10.4402 |
6.2627 |
4.9163 |
| 1998-11 |
-0.512 |
10.4654 |
5.5772 |
3.2954 |
| 1998-12 |
-0.5018 |
11.0995 |
5.4886 |
3.0075 |
| 1999-1 |
-0.2698 |
12.392 |
5.6401 |
2.7126 |
| 1999-2 |
-0.2698 |
13.1567 |
5.278 |
2.628 |
| 1999-3 |
-0.3888 |
13.1879 |
5.6841 |
3.0539 |
| 1999-4 |
-0.9384 |
13.265 |
5.4594 |
2.506 |
| 1999-5 |
-1.0349 |
13.2757 |
6 |
4.6392 |
| 1999-6 |
-1.0243 |
13.7189 |
5.9062 |
5.1605 |
| 1999-7 |
-1.1409 |
15.1989 |
5.4781 |
6.3743 |
| 1999-8 |
-1.1666 |
14.421 |
8.461 |
7.7564 |
| 1999-9 |
-1.4092 |
13.1839 |
9.7687 |
7.4746 |
| 1999-10 |
-0.8784 |
16.1389 |
10.4503 |
9.6836 |
| 1999-11 |
-0.6941 |
16.1491 |
12.0702 |
9.2767 |
| 1999-12 |
-0.9162 |
15.2049 |
12.0897 |
12.2888 |
| 2000-1 |
-0.6999 |
14.5537 |
12.0922 |
14.701 |
| 2000-2 |
-0.631 |
15.2179 |
14.0221 |
13.78 |
| 2000-3 |
-1.0395 |
13.0791 |
15.3775 |
12.6107 |
| 2000-4 |
0.0146 |
15.7866 |
16.8424 |
13.1752 |
| 2000-5 |
0.0946 |
15.186 |
15.247 |
10.856 |
| 2000-6 |
-0.5356 |
14.5577 |
14.07 |
8.423 |
| 2000-7 |
-0.6381 |
13.0492 |
12.9003 |
7.4578 |
| 2000-8 |
-0.1121 |
13.272 |
10.49 |
6.8106 |
| 2000-9 |
-0.213 |
13.1396 |
9.0572 |
8.6101 |
| 2000-10 |
-0.5257 |
11.4495 |
8.8589 |
4.0181 |
| 2000-11 |
-0.8462 |
10.5105 |
7.9536 |
5.2999 |
| 2000-12 |
-0.8326 |
10.667 |
8.3634 |
2.3305 |
| 2001-1 |
-0.4389 |
10.3639 |
10.239 |
0.3129 |
| 2001-2 |
-0.328 |
10.6278 |
7.34 |
2.754 |
| 2001-3 |
0.1807 |
10.8446 |
6.2126 |
3.8483 |
| 2001-4 |
-0.8677 |
8.7789 |
5.3894 |
4.5664 |
| 2001-5 |
-1.2592 |
7.2829 |
5.983 |
5.2577 |
| 2001-6 |
-0.354 |
6.7664 |
7.3987 |
7.6413 |
| 2001-7 |
0.3536 |
8.3124 |
9.2603 |
7.8668 |
| 2001-8 |
0.0451 |
7.3595 |
9.8776 |
9.1008 |
| 2001-9 |
0.2546 |
7.553 |
12.9639 |
7.0614 |
| 2001-10 |
0.8815 |
7.9189 |
11.8172 |
8.085 |
| 2001-11 |
2.0292 |
9.008 |
11.931 |
10.7354 |
| 2001-12 |
2.0178 |
7.8814 |
12.584 |
14.2477 |
| 2002-1 |
1.4807 |
8.29 |
10.0193 |
15.447 |
| 2002-2 |
1.7333 |
7.059 |
12.4721 |
14.9565 |
| 2002-3 |
1.614 |
8.1352 |
12.1584 |
14.7094 |
| 2002-4 |
1.9866 |
5.613 |
14.9671 |
13.9538 |
| 2002-5 |
3.1729 |
8.1695 |
16.9135 |
17.6459 |
| 2002-6 |
2.8616 |
8.0629 |
18.9395 |
18.6148 |
| 2002-7 |
1.7298 |
5.2513 |
19.5307 |
19.4878 |
| 2002-8 |
1.6941 |
5.4194 |
21.4283 |
16.9817 |
| 2002-9 |
1.7923 |
5.5092 |
20.7682 |
22.7801 |
| 2002-10 |
1.4269 |
4.0337 |
22.3796 |
28.1464 |
| 2002-11 |
0.7482 |
2.8839 |
23.5824 |
26.9522 |
| 2002-12 |
1.238 |
3.8846 |
23.272 |
20.5506 |
| 2003-1 |
0.7453 |
2.37 |
24.9739 |
20.6482 |
| 2003-2 |
0.4388 |
1.8353 |
22.9825 |
21.5785 |
| 2003-3 |
0.4692 |
1.7371 |
24.4802 |
22.2811 |
| 2003-4 |
1.5799 |
3.2471 |
20.4651 |
22.2759 |
| 2003-5 |
1.6493 |
2.0449 |
19.6827 |
19.2803 |
| 2003-6 |
1.7345 |
2.0087 |
17.8384 |
17.6407 |
| 2003-7 |
2.4172 |
2.2884 |
16.2378 |
16.967 |
| 2003-8 |
2.5927 |
1.608 |
14.856 |
19.2623 |
| 2003-9 |
2.8358 |
1.5233 |
13.7931 |
14.7686 |
| 2003-10 |
3.3324 |
1.9302 |
14.5793 |
12.1141 |
| 2003-11 |
3.4941 |
2.6596 |
13.7622 |
11.3683 |
| 2003-12 |
2.8802 |
1.9743 |
14.1968 |
15.8002 |
| 2004-1 |
3.7659 |
2.8896 |
12.8608 |
16.6114 |
| 2004-2 |
4.069 |
3.0856 |
15.6579 |
16.7837 |
| 2004-3 |
4.4252 |
2.3043 |
15.5057 |
17.818 |
| 2004-4 |
3.8254 |
2.1394 |
17.4954 |
19.3135 |
| 2004-5 |
3.1491 |
1.5221 |
17.6861 |
19.6186 |
| 2004-6 |
3.6577 |
0.4485 |
17.1807 |
19.882 |
| 2004-7 |
3.672 |
1.9664 |
18.5863 |
19.8384 |
| 2004-8 |
4.0446 |
3.1005 |
17.3816 |
17.278 |
| 2004-9 |
3.951 |
2.494 |
16.4579 |
18.135 |
| 2004-10 |
3.2661 |
2.5352 |
13.9209 |
15.2971 |
| 2004-11 |
2.6954 |
1.4496 |
13.4152 |
13.2697 |
| 2004-12 |
3.0829 |
2.4615 |
10.9347 |
12.6114 |
| 2005-1 |
3.2787 |
2.7367 |
10.35 |
10.8448 |
| 2005-2 |
2.981 |
2.802 |
8.0803 |
7.6274 |
| 2005-3 |
2.7543 |
1.8537 |
5.9231 |
5.6608 |
| 2005-4 |
2.467 |
2.0669 |
4.6673 |
3.3432 |
| 2005-5 |
2.8933 |
2.7842 |
3.4202 |
1.401 |
| 2005-6 |
2.832 |
3.6075 |
2.3678 |
0.4602 |
| 2005-7 |
2.5363 |
2.7783 |
0.4587 |
-0.6323 |
| 2005-8 |
1.9564 |
2.5459 |
0.3869 |
1.2925 |
| 2005-9 |
1.5019 |
1.5249 |
-0.2615 |
0.696 |
| 2005-10 |
2.7236 |
2.4736 |
0.9873 |
1.7453 |
| 2005-11 |
3.347 |
2.4835 |
0.2029 |
3.3331 |
| 2005-12 |
3.7255 |
2.4529 |
0.9753 |
3.5966 |
| 2006-1 |
3.7333 |
2.3221 |
2.3393 |
2.33 |
| 2006-2 |
4.4875 |
1.9103 |
1.5352 |
4.3743 |
| 2006-3 |
5.083 |
2.605 |
3.4394 |
5.2409 |
| 2006-4 |
5.6433 |
2.6464 |
2.5604 |
7.2902 |
| 2006-5 |
6.1269 |
1.877 |
2.3297 |
7.3217 |
| 2006-6 |
7.1117 |
2.3868 |
2.5466 |
6.0047 |
| 2006-7 |
8.3799 |
2.6965 |
3.5997 |
6.2602 |
| 2006-8 |
10.028 |
2.0112 |
4.1767 |
5.7082 |
| 2006-9 |
11.1059 |
3.9539 |
5.7572 |
5.8186 |
| 2006-10 |
10.2654 |
3.0386 |
5.3966 |
7.3836 |
| 2006-11 |
9.8774 |
2.7294 |
6.6517 |
7.873 |
| 2006-12 |
9.0197 |
2.5866 |
7.2262 |
5.3842 |
| 2007-1 |
8.6174 |
2.9911 |
6.3098 |
7.5773 |
| 2007-2 |
7.6908 |
2.4675 |
7.1004 |
8.0753 |
| 2007-3 |
6.8378 |
2.1083 |
5.9719 |
7.987 |
| 2007-4 |
6.7476 |
2.0901 |
7.2231 |
7.1428 |
| 2007-5 |
6.5012 |
2.6834 |
7.6203 |
7.5598 |
| 2007-6 |
5.6915 |
1.5669 |
8.5326 |
8.8846 |
| 2007-7 |
ND |
2.2126 |
7.9568 |
9.8765 |
| 2007-8 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2007-9 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2007-10 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2007-11 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2007-12 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2008-1 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2008-2 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2008-3 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2008-4 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2008-5 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2008-6 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2008-7 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2008-8 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2008-9 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2008-10 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2008-11 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
| 2008-12 |
ND |
ND |
ND |
ND |
Figure 1 Data, Table 3 of 4 (Biannual Frequency):
Real House Prices in the Advanced Foreign Economies
(Deflated with CPI; Percent change from year earlier)
| Case |
Euro Area |
Japan |
| 1992-1 |
2.7643 |
-4.43 |
| 1992-2 |
2.2687 |
-5.899 |
| 1993-1 |
-0.3181 |
-5.9923 |
| 1993-2 |
0.5398 |
-5.4484 |
| 1994-1 |
-1.2943 |
-3.8641 |
| 1994-2 |
-1.1797 |
-2.4658 |
| 1995-1 |
-1.4529 |
-1.5265 |
| 1995-2 |
-0.9306 |
-1.2933 |
| 1996-1 |
-0.4471 |
-2.008 |
| 1996-2 |
-0.3112 |
-2.3803 |
| 1997-1 |
-0.3124 |
-2.7538 |
| 1997-2 |
0.8954 |
-3.3736 |
| 1998-1 |
0.9492 |
-2.549 |
| 1998-2 |
1.919 |
-1.7884 |
| 1999-1 |
3.178 |
-2.5034 |
| 1999-2 |
3.5446 |
-2.9275 |
| 2000-1 |
3.9212 |
-3.0674 |
| 2000-2 |
3.3833 |
-3.3578 |
| 2001-1 |
3.2237 |
-3.3888 |
| 2001-2 |
3.198 |
-3.2549 |
| 2002-1 |
4.3532 |
-3.3751 |
| 2002-2 |
5.216 |
-4.0554 |
| 2003-1 |
4.6966 |
-4.5777 |
| 2003-2 |
4.9967 |
-5.4481 |
| 2004-1 |
4.8994 |
-6.2129 |
| 2004-2 |
5.399 |
-6.2137 |
| 2005-1 |
6.1154 |
-5.0706 |
| 2005-2 |
5.0961 |
-3.8864 |
| 2006-1 |
4.3761 |
-3.881 |
| 2006-2 |
3.9586 |
-3.2299 |
| 2007-1 |
ND |
-1.4313 |
| 2007-2 |
ND |
ND |
| 2008-1 |
ND |
ND |
| 2008-2 |
ND |
ND |
Figure 1 Data, Table 4 of 4 (Annual Frequency):
Real House Prices in the Advanced Foreign Economies
(Deflated with CPI; Percent change from year earlier)
| Year |
Germany, Owner-Occupied Homes |
Germany, Rented Apartments |
| 1992-1 |
3.0824 |
-1.1288 |
| 1993-1 |
2.9328 |
-1.2166 |
| 1994-1 |
2.671 |
0.0532 |
| 1995-1 |
-1.4528 |
-2.2686 |
| 1996-1 |
-3.3133 |
-3.9425 |
| 1997-1 |
-2.1663 |
-3.0093 |
| 1998-1 |
-1.3362 |
-1.1633 |
| 1999-1 |
-0.0301 |
-1.2565 |
| 2000-1 |
1.4574 |
-0.7407 |
| 2001-1 |
-1.6795 |
-0.6614 |
| 2002-1 |
1.0873 |
-0.7202 |
| 2003-1 |
-1.5528 |
-2.1284 |
| 2004-1 |
-1.9633 |
-2.1514 |
| 2005-1 |
-0.7433 |
-1.0519 |
| 2006-1 |
-2.5315 |
-0.6454 |
| 2007-1 |
ND |
ND |
| 2008-1 |
ND |
ND |
Return to Text
Figure 2 Data:
Effects of a Monetary Policy Shock in the FRB/US Model
| Quarter |
D1RFF |
D2RFF |
D3RFF |
D4RFF |
D1XGDP |
D2XGDP |
D3XGDP |
D4XGDP |
D1LUR |
D2LUR |
D3LUR |
D4LUR |
D1PICX4 |
D2PICX4 |
D3PICX4 |
D4PICX4 |
D1EH |
D2EH |
D3EH |
D4EH |
D1ECNIA |
D2ECNIA |
D3ECNIA |
D4ECNIA |
| 2007-1 |
0.9222 |
0.9221 |
0.9221 |
0.9222 |
0.0038 |
0.0037 |
0.0037 |
0.0038 |
-0.0011 |
-0.001 |
-0.001 |
-0.0011 |
-0.0217 |
-0.0217 |
-0.0217 |
-0.0217 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.0069 |
0.0068 |
0.0068 |
0.0069 |
| 2007-2 |
0.6005 |
0.6084 |
0.6084 |
0.5953 |
-0.1066 |
-0.0795 |
-0.0795 |
-0.1247 |
0.0224 |
0.0164 |
0.0164 |
0.0264 |
-0.0423 |
-0.0426 |
-0.0426 |
-0.0421 |
-0.6773 |
-0.0395 |
-0.0395 |
-0.8909 |
-0.0772 |
-0.0735 |
-0.0734 |
-0.0942 |
| 2007-3 |
0.3411 |
0.3599 |
0.3599 |
0.3284 |
-0.1933 |
-0.1495 |
-0.1494 |
-0.2232 |
0.0527 |
0.0401 |
0.04 |
0.0612 |
-0.0557 |
-0.0556 |
-0.0556 |
-0.0558 |
-0.9358 |
0.0313 |
0.0315 |
-1.2294 |
-0.1371 |
-0.1245 |
-0.1242 |
-0.1699 |
| 2007-4 |
0.1258 |
0.156 |
0.1563 |
0.1047 |
-0.2814 |
-0.2272 |
-0.2266 |
-0.3203 |
0.0871 |
0.0687 |
0.0686 |
0.1 |
-0.0689 |
-0.0676 |
-0.0676 |
-0.0697 |
-1.0127 |
0.0836 |
0.0844 |
-1.3119 |
-0.2147 |
-0.1932 |
-0.1922 |
-0.2608 |
| 2008-1 |
-0.0366 |
0.0016 |
0.0022 |
-0.0641 |
-0.3271 |
-0.2758 |
-0.2743 |
-0.3655 |
0.1146 |
0.0937 |
0.0933 |
0.1299 |
-0.0639 |
-0.061 |
-0.061 |
-0.0659 |
-0.8197 |
0.1566 |
0.1586 |
-1.065 |
-0.2672 |
-0.2404 |
-0.2379 |
-0.3168 |
| 2008-2 |
-0.1571 |
-0.1136 |
-0.1123 |
-0.1885 |
-0.3602 |
-0.3128 |
-0.3099 |
-0.3945 |
0.1364 |
0.1148 |
0.1139 |
0.1521 |
-0.0583 |
-0.0534 |
-0.0534 |
-0.0617 |
-0.5936 |
0.2063 |
0.2104 |
-0.7835 |
-0.2994 |
-0.2711 |
-0.2663 |
-0.3432 |
| 2008-3 |
-0.243 |
-0.1976 |
-0.1951 |
-0.275 |
-0.3682 |
-0.3289 |
-0.3239 |
-0.394 |
0.1498 |
0.1294 |
0.1278 |
0.1641 |
-0.0585 |
-0.0524 |
-0.0523 |
-0.0629 |
-0.4319 |
0.2052 |
0.2123 |
-0.5834 |
-0.3191 |
-0.2918 |
-0.2836 |
-0.3524 |
| 2008-4 |
-0.3004 |
-0.2565 |
-0.2523 |
-0.33 |
-0.3636 |
-0.3337 |
-0.3259 |
-0.3799 |
0.1561 |
0.1381 |
0.1356 |
0.1677 |
-0.0593 |
-0.0526 |
-0.0524 |
-0.064 |
-0.2946 |
0.1706 |
0.1819 |
-0.4189 |
-0.3243 |
-0.3002 |
-0.2876 |
-0.3449 |
| 2009-1 |
-0.3341 |
-0.2944 |
-0.2879 |
-0.3593 |
-0.3519 |
-0.3323 |
-0.3212 |
-0.3596 |
0.157 |
0.1423 |
0.1385 |
0.1654 |
-0.0574 |
-0.0507 |
-0.0504 |
-0.0621 |
-0.204 |
0.0926 |
0.1092 |
-0.316 |
-0.3203 |
-0.301 |
-0.2831 |
-0.3288 |
| 2009-2 |
-0.3502 |
-0.3168 |
-0.3074 |
-0.3698 |
-0.3336 |
-0.3247 |
-0.3098 |
-0.3339 |
0.1531 |
0.1425 |
0.1373 |
0.1583 |
-0.0577 |
-0.051 |
-0.0504 |
-0.0621 |
-0.1454 |
-0.0155 |
0.0073 |
-0.2545 |
-0.3088 |
-0.2953 |
-0.2713 |
-0.3073 |
| 2009-3 |
-0.3543 |
-0.3286 |
-0.3157 |
-0.3683 |
-0.3134 |
-0.3148 |
-0.2958 |
-0.309 |
0.1462 |
0.14 |
0.133 |
0.1487 |
-0.0598 |
-0.0533 |
-0.0523 |
-0.0639 |
-0.1156 |
-0.1427 |
-0.1127 |
-0.2348 |
-0.2922 |
-0.2848 |
-0.2541 |
-0.2834 |
| 2009-4 |
-0.3496 |
-0.3324 |
-0.3156 |
-0.3588 |
-0.2905 |
-0.3019 |
-0.2785 |
-0.2837 |
0.1369 |
0.1353 |
0.1263 |
0.1373 |
-0.0627 |
-0.0564 |
-0.055 |
-0.0665 |
-0.1036 |
-0.2746 |
-0.2366 |
-0.2416 |
-0.2715 |
-0.2706 |
-0.2328 |
-0.2588 |
| 2010-1 |
-0.3383 |
-0.3302 |
-0.3089 |
-0.3441 |
-0.2655 |
-0.2862 |
-0.2584 |
-0.2585 |
0.1257 |
0.1286 |
0.1176 |
0.1248 |
-0.0657 |
-0.0598 |
-0.0578 |
-0.0692 |
-0.1006 |
-0.3998 |
-0.3532 |
-0.2633 |
-0.2479 |
-0.2534 |
-0.2083 |
-0.2342 |
| 2010-2 |
-0.3223 |
-0.3233 |
-0.2973 |
-0.3261 |
-0.2383 |
-0.2676 |
-0.2354 |
-0.2327 |
0.1129 |
0.1202 |
0.1071 |
0.1116 |
-0.0693 |
-0.0637 |
-0.0611 |
-0.0728 |
-0.0974 |
-0.5078 |
-0.4522 |
-0.2841 |
-0.2217 |
-0.2335 |
-0.1811 |
-0.2098 |
| 2010-3 |
-0.3027 |
-0.3125 |
-0.2816 |
-0.306 |
-0.2087 |
-0.2456 |
-0.2092 |
-0.2057 |
0.0988 |
0.1102 |
0.0951 |
0.0978 |
-0.0731 |
-0.0681 |
-0.0648 |
-0.0767 |
-0.0881 |
-0.5914 |
-0.5267 |
-0.2941 |
-0.1933 |
-0.211 |
-0.1515 |
-0.185 |
| 2010-4 |
-0.2802 |
-0.2984 |
-0.2626 |
-0.2844 |
-0.1769 |
-0.2204 |
-0.1802 |
-0.177 |
0.0836 |
0.0987 |
0.0816 |
0.0833 |
-0.0769 |
-0.0724 |
-0.0683 |
-0.0807 |
-0.0682 |
-0.6456 |
-0.5718 |
-0.2856 |
-0.1628 |
-0.186 |
-0.1198 |
-0.1598 |
| 2011-1 |
-0.2553 |
-0.2811 |
-0.2404 |
-0.2614 |
-0.1431 |
-0.192 |
-0.1485 |
-0.1467 |
0.0675 |
0.0858 |
0.0668 |
0.0683 |
-0.0803 |
-0.0766 |
-0.0716 |
-0.0845 |
-0.035 |
-0.6679 |
-0.5854 |
-0.2545 |
-0.1306 |
-0.1587 |
-0.0864 |
-0.1338 |
| 2011-2 |
-0.2285 |
-0.2611 |
-0.2157 |
-0.2373 |
-0.1077 |
-0.1609 |
-0.1145 |
-0.1148 |
0.0507 |
0.0717 |
0.0511 |
0.0529 |
-0.0834 |
-0.0804 |
-0.0745 |
-0.0879 |
0.012 |
-0.658 |
-0.5673 |
-0.1998 |
-0.097 |
-0.1294 |
-0.0517 |
-0.107 |
| 2011-3 |
-0.2001 |
-0.2385 |
-0.1887 |
-0.2122 |
-0.0715 |
-0.1275 |
-0.0789 |
-0.0818 |
0.0334 |
0.0567 |
0.0346 |
0.0371 |
-0.086 |
-0.0838 |
-0.0769 |
-0.0909 |
0.0718 |
-0.6172 |
-0.5193 |
-0.1229 |
-0.0628 |
-0.0986 |
-0.0162 |
-0.0798 |
| 2011-4 |
-0.1707 |
-0.2138 |
-0.1601 |
-0.1863 |
-0.0349 |
-0.0925 |
-0.0424 |
-0.0483 |
0.0161 |
0.0409 |
0.0176 |
0.0213 |
-0.0879 |
-0.0867 |
-0.0787 |
-0.0933 |
0.1421 |
-0.5484 |
-0.4445 |
-0.0273 |
-0.0284 |
-0.0668 |
0.0193 |
-0.0525 |
Return to Text
Figure 2 Data Legend:
d1 prefix -- benchmark model, all monetary transmission channels operating
d2 prefix -- benchmark model, no housing investment response to interest rates
d3 prefix -- benchmark model, no housing investment response to interest rates and no consumption response to real estate wealth
d4 prefix -- model with magnified housing-related transmission channels
rff -- federal funds rate
xgdp -- real gdp
lur -- unemployment rate
picx4 -- consumer price inflation
eh -- real residential investment
ecnia -- real consumer spending
Figure 3 Data:
Mortgage Delinquency Rates
| Month |
Prime Fixed |
Prime Variable |
Subprime Fixed |
Subprime Variable |
| 2000-10 |
0.88 |
1.53 |
6.12 |
8.41 |
| 2000-11 |
0.91 |
1.56 |
6.35 |
8.82 |
| 2000-12 |
0.95 |
1.59 |
6.57 |
9.12 |
| 2001-1 |
0.97 |
1.62 |
6.96 |
9.43 |
| 2001-2 |
0.97 |
1.63 |
6.97 |
9.48 |
| 2001-3 |
0.94 |
1.59 |
6.84 |
9.28 |
| 2001-4 |
0.93 |
1.63 |
6.77 |
9.2 |
| 2001-5 |
0.92 |
1.62 |
7.24 |
9.19 |
| 2001-6 |
0.95 |
1.65 |
7.64 |
9.51 |
| 2001-7 |
0.98 |
1.68 |
7.7 |
9.67 |
| 2001-8 |
1 |
1.69 |
7.72 |
9.94 |
| 2001-9 |
1.05 |
1.76 |
8.1 |
10.19 |
| 2001-10 |
1.06 |
1.77 |
8.09 |
10.28 |
| 2001-11 |
1.09 |
1.8 |
8.29 |
10.5 |
| 2001-12 |
1.13 |
1.85 |
8.41 |
10.55 |
| 2002-1 |
1.15 |
1.9 |
8.6 |
10.63 |
| 2002-2 |
1.12 |
1.84 |
8.68 |
10.61 |
| 2002-3 |
1.06 |
1.74 |
8.45 |
9.95 |
| 2002-4 |
1.01 |
1.61 |
8.53 |
9.51 |
| 2002-5 |
1.03 |
1.55 |
8.39 |
9.11 |
| 2002-6 |
1.04 |
1.53 |
8.57 |
9.09 |
| 2002-7 |
1.04 |
1.47 |
8.6 |
8.94 |
| 2002-8 |
1.07 |
1.45 |
8.7 |
9.04 |
| 2002-9 |
1.11 |
1.45 |
8.9 |
9.31 |
| 2002-10 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
8.94 |
9.21 |
| 2002-11 |
1.14 |
1.4 |
9.03 |
9.23 |
| 2002-12 |
1.17 |
1.37 |
8.91 |
9.29 |
| 2003-1 |
1.15 |
1.21 |
8.33 |
9.21 |
| 2003-2 |
1.16 |
1.19 |
8.25 |
8.99 |
| 2003-3 |
1.1039 |
1.1264 |
8.1768 |
8.7014 |
| 2003-4 |
1.091 |
1.0663 |
8.0348 |
8.5105 |
| 2003-5 |
1.0688 |
1.0064 |
7.8855 |
8.4188 |
| 2003-6 |
1.0665 |
0.9934 |
7.4567 |
8.2111 |
| 2003-7 |
1.0882 |
0.9587 |
7.102 |
7.7622 |
| 2003-8 |
1.1068 |
0.9438 |
6.9791 |
7.7697 |
| 2003-9 |
1.1225 |
0.9276 |
6.8454 |
7.6872 |
| 2003-10 |
1.0656 |
0.8527 |
6.6819 |
7.5786 |
| 2003-11 |
1.1026 |
0.8675 |
6.7077 |
7.6049 |
| 2003-12 |
1.095 |
0.8264 |
6.6102 |
7.4249 |
| 2004-1 |
1.1121 |
0.8165 |
6.7581 |
7.3072 |
| 2004-2 |
1.0935 |
0.7909 |
6.4886 |
6.9692 |
| 2004-3 |
1.0302 |
0.727 |
6.2791 |
6.7391 |
| 2004-4 |
1.0592 |
0.7001 |
5.8977 |
6.2558 |
| 2004-5 |
1.0667 |
0.679 |
5.8256 |
6.2302 |
| 2004-6 |
1.058 |
0.6611 |
5.7479 |
6.1829 |
| 2004-7 |
1.0703 |
0.6477 |
5.7636 |
6.0815 |
| 2004-8 |
1.0631 |
0.6367 |
5.5887 |
6.0521 |
| 2004-9 |
1.0784 |
0.6351 |
5.6074 |
6.0276 |
| 2004-10 |
1.1 |
0.6318 |
5.6157 |
6.1017 |
| 2004-11 |
1.1181 |
0.6406 |
5.7968 |
6.1835 |
| 2004-12 |
1.1097 |
0.6316 |
5.7613 |
6.1281 |
| 2005-1 |
1.1182 |
0.6307 |
5.8478 |
6.2819 |
| 2005-2 |
1.0812 |
0.6156 |
5.6973 |
6.1234 |
| 2005-3 |
1.003 |
0.5723 |
5.4544 |
5.8135 |
| 2005-4 |
0.9624 |
0.55 |
5.2917 |
5.6146 |
| 2005-5 |
0.9636 |
0.528 |
5.3245 |
5.4487 |
| 2005-6 |
0.9563 |
0.5258 |
5.2633 |
5.4535 |
| 2005-7 |
0.9492 |
0.5505 |
5.3151 |
5.6031 |
| 2005-8 |
0.98 |
0.5723 |
5.3027 |
5.6999 |
| 2005-9 |
0.9935 |
0.5797 |
5.3329 |
5.9118 |
| 2005-10 |
1.0214 |
0.5925 |
5.4746 |
6.2824 |
| 2005-11 |
1.1405 |
0.6641 |
5.7865 |
6.7821 |
| 2005-12 |
1.161 |
0.6824 |
5.872 |
7.0569 |
| 2006-1 |
1.1519 |
0.696 |
5.8814 |
7.3748 |
| 2006-2 |
1.0966 |
0.684 |
5.7552 |
7.4482 |
| 2006-3 |
0.9929 |
0.6326 |
5.3851 |
7.1229 |
| 2006-4 |
0.9671 |
0.6277 |
5.3058 |
7.2875 |
| 2006-5 |
0.9318 |
0.6274 |
5.1295 |
7.4048 |
| 2006-6 |
0.9183 |
0.6326 |
5.1014 |
7.7246 |
| 2006-7 |
0.9256 |
0.658 |
5.1118 |
8.2072 |
| 2006-8 |
0.9168 |
0.6779 |
5.1126 |
8.5396 |
| 2006-9 |
0.9129 |
0.7127 |
5.1978 |
9.0536 |
| 2006-10 |
0.9132 |
0.7494 |
5.1575 |
9.4629 |
| 2006-11 |
0.9269 |
0.8011 |
5.2366 |
10.065 |
| 2006-12 |
0.8746 |
0.8187 |
5.3556 |
10.6816 |
| 2007-1 |
0.8688 |
0.8534 |
5.3351 |
11.0065 |
| 2007-2 |
0.8607 |
0.8908 |
5.3055 |
11.3059 |
| 2007-3 |
0.8089 |
0.892 |
5.1243 |
11.3097 |
| 2007-4 |
0.797 |
0.9362 |
5.1495 |
11.764 |
| 2007-5 |
0.7927 |
1.0025 |
5.2037 |
12.322 |
| 2007-6 |
0.8108 |
1.1024 |
5.6319 |
13.3903 |
Return to Text
Figure 4 Data:
Dynamic Simulations of Residential Investment Models
| Quarter |
EH |
Sim1 |
Sim2 |
Sim3 |
| 1980-1 |
269.8037 |
NA |
279.4601 |
ND |
| 1980-2 |
219.8758 |
NA |
240.4382 |
ND |
| 1980-3 |
223.6298 |
NA |
217.9873 |
ND |
| 1980-4 |
245.4877 |
NA |
239.0572 |
ND |
| 1981-1 |
241.0858 |
NA |
229.464 |
ND |
| 1981-2 |
232.9343 |
NA |
223.6492 |
ND |
| 1981-3 |
214.9688 |
NA |
211.5356 |
ND |
| 1981-4 |
192.9455 |
NA |
190.5176 |
ND |
| 1982-1 |
181.8265 |
NA |
181.2334 |
ND |
| 1982-2 |
176.0794 |
NA |
181.211 |
ND |
| 1982-3 |
175.5208 |
NA |
189.7152 |
ND |
| 1982-4 |
188.3781 |
NA |
198.197 |
ND |
| 1983-1 |
220.4791 |
206.5343 |
226.3618 |
208.1243 |
| 1983-2 |
246.6005 |
229.2875 |
254.7094 |
231.6081 |
| 1983-3 |
271.0327 |
246.3078 |
282.8997 |
250.7056 |
| 1983-4 |
282.4778 |
251.9548 |
298.7271 |
258.9129 |
| 1984-1 |
290.3344 |
255.2034 |
307.7749 |
265.1146 |
| 1984-2 |
295.7061 |
258.9446 |
312.2614 |
269.6784 |
| 1984-3 |
292.8638 |
256.5617 |
303.0357 |
269.1832 |
| 1984-4 |
293.1677 |
251.0681 |
291.0663 |
266.8815 |
| 1985-1 |
292.256 |
252.8326 |
286.955 |
272.6123 |
| 1985-2 |
294.5889 |
259.4805 |
288.2807 |
281.6796 |
| 1985-3 |
298.3339 |
266.2329 |
291.8813 |
291.2309 |
| 1985-4 |
305.4352 |
275.7662 |
300.0364 |
302.2622 |
| 1986-1 |
318.4847 |
286.5255 |
305.8573 |
313.5465 |
| 1986-2 |
336.1642 |
303.7307 |
314.3241 |
331.0623 |
| 1986-3 |
341.3393 |
319.2216 |
326.152 |
347.2279 |
| 1986-4 |
340.7226 |
328.7428 |
331.8736 |
357.1933 |
| 1987-1 |
339.8287 |
339.5801 |
340.596 |
367.7901 |
| 1987-2 |
341.3169 |
352.0312 |
352.5665 |
376.5526 |
| 1987-3 |
340.2846 |
347.764 |
348.0167 |
369.1824 |
| 1987-4 |
341.956 |
340.1174 |
339.4106 |
358.2731 |
| 1988-1 |
334.5508 |
332.143 |
332.6857 |
346.7729 |
| 1988-2 |
337.2144 |
332.7229 |
335.6317 |
343.4557 |
| 1988-3 |
337.4199 |
332.3457 |
333.0237 |
338.8671 |
| 1988-4 |
340.3784 |
329.6525 |
332.0297 |
333.9207 |
| 1989-1 |
338.1573 |
329.1057 |
331.0571 |
332.3776 |
| 1989-2 |
328.1333 |
325.0026 |
325.9049 |
327.745 |
| 1989-3 |
324.5581 |
322.6956 |
321.6914 |
325.603 |
| 1989-4 |
317.7429 |
328.0377 |
324.5786 |
330.7913 |
| 1990-1 |
320.974 |
334.041 |
330.2222 |
335.7806 |
| 1990-2 |
308.631 |
334.8018 |
328.4109 |
336.2151 |
| 1990-3 |
291.099 |
332.441 |
317.5374 |
334.3306 |
| 1990-4 |
274.974 |
329.8367 |
307.8159 |
334.7464 |
| 1991-1 |
258.622 |
328.6211 |
297.3088 |
336.0525 |
| 1991-2 |
264.722 |
330.2721 |
295.2999 |
340.8144 |
| 1991-3 |
275.694 |
330.5759 |
293.3156 |
344.857 |
| 1991-4 |
281.745 |
331.5232 |
292.3767 |
349.3444 |
| 1992-1 |
296.113 |
336.9495 |
294.3398 |
357.0363 |
| 1992-2 |
307.442 |
340.3549 |
295.4706 |
363.0987 |
| 1992-3 |
308.152 |
341.3644 |
298.6743 |
367.0129 |
| 1992-4 |
318.619 |
348.4926 |
310.8928 |
376.3909 |
| 1993-1 |
320.071 |
351.8619 |
320.0926 |
382.9923 |
| 1993-2 |
323.834 |
356.9971 |
329.6685 |
389.5597 |
| 1993-3 |
335.016 |
363.5585 |
343.4235 |
395.05 |
| 1993-4 |
351.886 |
371.487 |
354.4989 |
401.3971 |
| 1994-1 |
358.835 |
376.6856 |
358.7799 |
404.6349 |
| 1994-2 |
370.906 |
376.3302 |
365.0043 |
401.7865 |
| 1994-3 |
367.005 |
363.3023 |
355.5433 |
385.3335 |
| 1994-4 |
362.308 |
351.4405 |
353.7782 |
369.3326 |
| 1995-1 |
354.228 |
339.6717 |
346.5248 |
354.2508 |
| 1995-2 |
342.899 |
334.1631 |
341.2214 |
345.865 |
| 1995-3 |
353.558 |
339.6538 |
348.7172 |
348.0654 |
| 1995-4 |
361.62 |
348.795 |
357.9005 |
351.5789 |
| 1996-1 |
371.085 |
359.1855 |
367.9142 |
358.1293 |
| 1996-2 |
386.78 |
369.5627 |
373.7913 |
365.3069 |
| 1996-3 |
385.739 |
368.7589 |
372.1929 |
363.8878 |
| 1996-4 |
381.771 |
367.4203 |
367.4012 |
362.9284 |
| 1997-1 |
383.075 |
373.2179 |
372.1974 |
367.4406 |
| 1997-2 |
387.902 |
379.9747 |
377.532 |
370.9745 |
| 1997-3 |
389.663 |
385.267 |
380.1556 |
374.9853 |
| 1997-4 |
393.636 |
396.1285 |
390.9376 |
385.7599 |
| 1998-1 |
401.774 |
410.3157 |
401.177 |
399.7324 |
| 1998-2 |
412.897 |
425.9713 |
414.3946 |
414.7561 |
| 1998-3 |
424.141 |
439.4681 |
417.8613 |
429.139 |
| 1998-4 |
434.326 |
453.4122 |
426.1497 |
444.8417 |
| 1999-1 |
438.071 |
467.4722 |
434.0903 |
459.6639 |
| 1999-2 |
441.848 |
479.0522 |
437.7898 |
473.0433 |
| 1999-3 |
444.453 |
484.4792 |
440.0322 |
480.089 |
| 1999-4 |
449.905 |
482.223 |
436.1556 |
479.6322 |
| 2000-1 |
454.45 |
482.5417 |
438.3329 |
481.1643 |
| 2000-2 |
450.415 |
480.2378 |
440.6011 |
479.7674 |
| 2000-3 |
441.173 |
479.29 |
440.9493 |
480.6709 |
| 2000-4 |
441.57 |
485.2565 |
452.4774 |
486.6383 |
| 2001-1 |
443.961 |
496.6016 |
456.9073 |
497.2791 |
| 2001-2 |
450.093 |
512.1429 |
467.5926 |
511.7684 |
| 2001-3 |
452.113 |
521.7404 |
464.3018 |
520.0737 |
| 2001-4 |
447.823 |
528.572 |
452.7001 |
525.8448 |
| 2002-1 |
459 |
535.4174 |
453.0112 |
533.3344 |
| 2002-2 |
469.542 |
535.1308 |
451.5796 |
540.1098 |
| 2002-3 |
471.848 |
534.3921 |
458.9236 |
545.2032 |
| 2002-4 |
479.267 |
540.0175 |
466.8576 |
557.5611 |
| 2003-1 |
484.124 |
546.1569 |
475.7726 |
568.5311 |
| 2003-2 |
496.329 |
549.1603 |
479.6757 |
578.0336 |
| 2003-3 |
521.83 |
554.7685 |
489.9411 |
589.9485 |
| 2003-4 |
535.179 |
548.5122 |
497.5063 |
594.4161 |
| 2004-1 |
540.465 |
543.2426 |
503.4353 |
597.5738 |
| 2004-2 |
561.738 |
539.7572 |
516.7448 |
605.3907 |
| 2004-3 |
567.539 |
526.9936 |
524.4068 |
604.7009 |
| 2004-4 |
570.904 |
517.9133 |
533.2186 |
605.7383 |
| 2005-1 |
578.349 |
514.193 |
548.5434 |
610.3372 |
| 2005-2 |
596.449 |
507.4179 |
562.6398 |
612.2547 |
| 2005-3 |
606.424 |
500.5128 |
575.1517 |
612.0378 |
| 2005-4 |
607.161 |
492.8756 |
585.1195 |
608.1358 |
| 2006-1 |
606.066 |
479.6777 |
594.8753 |
598.306 |
| 2006-2 |
587.52 |
469.0619 |
592.8433 |
592.6112 |
| 2006-3 |
555.008 |
456.9816 |
582.2199 |
581.4258 |
| 2006-4 |
529.409 |
448.2074 |
575.3156 |
576.1844 |
| 2007-1 |
506.344 |
447.2233 |
568.4095 |
579.6265 |
Return to Text
Figure 4 Data Legend:
EH -- real residential investment, history
Sim1 -- simulation of reduced-form housing equation without house price appreciation term
Sim2 -- simulation of reduced-form housing equation witj house price appreciation term
Sim3 -- simulation of the FRB/US housing equation
Figure 5 Data:
Effects of a 20 percent Decline in Real House Prices Under the Estimated Taylor Rule in the Benchmark Version and the Magnified-Channels Version of the FRB/US
| Quarter |
D1RFF |
D2RFF |
D1XGDP |
D2XGDP |
D1LUR |
D2LUR |
D1PICX4 |
D2PICX4 |
D1EH |
D2EH |
D1ECNIA |
D2ECNIA |
| 2007-1 |
0 |
0 |
1.1293 |
1.1293 |
-0.0006 |
-0.0006 |
-0.1167 |
-0.1167 |
2.0942 |
2.0942 |
0.812 |
0.812 |
| 2007-2 |
-0.0027 |
-0.0085 |
1.0241 |
1.0046 |
-0.0005 |
0.0037 |
-0.0953 |
-0.0951 |
1.5584 |
1.4107 |
0.8944 |
0.8701 |
| 2007-3 |
-0.0111 |
-0.0338 |
1.0859 |
1.0239 |
0.0174 |
0.0331 |
-0.0217 |
-0.0215 |
1.9551 |
1.525 |
0.9472 |
0.8669 |
| 2007-4 |
-0.028 |
-0.0834 |
1.204 |
1.0767 |
-0.0053 |
0.0303 |
0.0073 |
0.0068 |
3.8771 |
3.0257 |
0.9867 |
0.8194 |
| 2008-1 |
-0.0554 |
-0.1616 |
1.3309 |
1.119 |
0.0581 |
0.1224 |
0.0192 |
0.0163 |
5.7321 |
4.3149 |
1.034 |
0.7539 |
| 2008-2 |
-0.095 |
-0.272 |
1.4245 |
1.1104 |
0.0906 |
0.1921 |
0.0338 |
0.0262 |
6.5615 |
4.4644 |
1.07 |
0.6571 |
| 2008-3 |
-0.1472 |
-0.4151 |
1.4836 |
1.0568 |
0.0766 |
0.2226 |
0.0057 |
-0.0092 |
6.4631 |
3.6167 |
1.0865 |
0.5273 |
| 2008-4 |
-0.212 |
-0.5888 |
1.5095 |
0.9649 |
0.1136 |
0.3094 |
-0.004 |
-0.0286 |
6.5687 |
2.9156 |
1.0747 |
0.3623 |
| 2009-1 |
-0.261 |
-0.7616 |
1.514 |
0.852 |
0.1413 |
0.3898 |
-0.0077 |
-0.0442 |
6.4955 |
2.019 |
1.0273 |
0.1609 |
| 2009-2 |
-0.3848 |
-1.0155 |
1.5352 |
0.7791 |
0.1513 |
0.4493 |
-0.0124 |
-0.0632 |
6.246 |
1.0974 |
0.9621 |
-0.03 |
| 2009-3 |
-0.3107 |
-1.0687 |
1.536 |
0.7178 |
0.1733 |
0.5127 |
-0.0198 |
-0.0863 |
6.0151 |
0.3686 |
0.9806 |
-0.0995 |
| 2009-4 |
-0.5179 |
-1.391 |
1.487 |
0.6437 |
0.2161 |
0.5849 |
-0.0199 |
-0.1028 |
5.9309 |
-0.0135 |
0.8933 |
-0.2313 |
| 2010-1 |
-0.6472 |
-1.6163 |
1.5387 |
0.706 |
0.2472 |
0.6315 |
-0.0311 |
-0.1298 |
6.0688 |
0.0365 |
0.7145 |
-0.4122 |
| 2010-2 |
-0.759 |
-1.799 |
1.5822 |
0.7961 |
0.2726 |
0.6574 |
-0.0448 |
-0.158 |
6.3844 |
0.4832 |
0.6299 |
-0.462 |
| 2010-3 |
-0.8491 |
-1.9313 |
1.6267 |
0.9197 |
0.2927 |
0.6628 |
-0.0595 |
-0.185 |
6.9403 |
1.378 |
0.5794 |
-0.4436 |
| 2010-4 |
-0.9146 |
-2.0081 |
1.7719 |
1.1728 |
0.2874 |
0.6284 |
-0.0736 |
-0.209 |
7.573 |
2.5596 |
0.5735 |
-0.3511 |
| 2011-1 |
-0.9536 |
-2.0271 |
1.833 |
1.3684 |
0.2874 |
0.5858 |
-0.0859 |
-0.2288 |
8.2178 |
3.9599 |
0.571 |
-0.2303 |
| 2011-2 |
-0.9658 |
-1.99 |
1.9326 |
1.6198 |
0.2808 |
0.5256 |
-0.0966 |
-0.2446 |
8.9133 |
5.4826 |
0.5979 |
-0.0608 |
| 2011-3 |
-0.9525 |
-1.9013 |
2.0597 |
1.9101 |
0.2653 |
0.4482 |
-0.1058 |
-0.2564 |
9.601 |
7.0377 |
0.659 |
0.1547 |
| 2011-4 |
-0.9162 |
-1.7682 |
2.1796 |
2.1982 |
0.2471 |
0.3625 |
-0.114 |
-0.2649 |
10.3018 |
8.6061 |
0.7487 |
0.4032 |
Return to Text
Figure 5 Data Legend:
d1 prefix -- benchmark version of FRB/US
d2 prefix -- version of FRB/US with magnified transmission channgels
rff -- federal funds rate
xgdp -- real gdp
lur -- unemployment rate
picx4 -- consumer price inflation
eh -- real residential investment
ecnia -- real consumer spending
Figure 6 Data:
Effects of a 20 percent Decline in Real House Prices Under Optimal Monetary Policy in the Benchmark Version and the Magnified-Channels Version of the FRB/US
| Quarter |
D1RFF |
D2RFF |
D1XGDP |
D2XGDP |
D1LUR |
D2LUR |
D1PICX4 |
D2PICX4 |
D1EH |
D2EH |
D1ECNIA |
D2ECNIA |
| 2007-1 |
0.0995 |
0.0552 |
1.1297 |
1.1295 |
-0.0007 |
-0.0007 |
-0.1191 |
-0.118 |
2.0942 |
2.0942 |
0.8127 |
0.8124 |
| 2007-2 |
0.1156 |
-0.0089 |
1.0127 |
0.997 |
0.0018 |
0.0053 |
-0.1011 |
-0.0967 |
1.484 |
1.3577 |
0.8864 |
0.8643 |
| 2007-3 |
0.0619 |
-0.1659 |
1.0586 |
1.015 |
0.0244 |
0.0358 |
-0.0302 |
-0.0202 |
1.8115 |
1.4869 |
0.9278 |
0.8599 |
| 2007-4 |
-0.0371 |
-0.3814 |
1.1618 |
1.0821 |
0.0072 |
0.0306 |
-0.0024 |
0.0154 |
3.7054 |
3.1154 |
0.955 |
0.8224 |
| 2008-1 |
-0.1678 |
-0.6339 |
1.2831 |
1.1648 |
0.0746 |
0.1128 |
0.0123 |
0.0389 |
5.6075 |
4.6596 |
0.9956 |
0.7874 |
| 2008-2 |
-0.3197 |
-0.9063 |
1.3841 |
1.2262 |
0.1076 |
0.1628 |
0.0335 |
0.0683 |
6.5549 |
5.147 |
1.0349 |
0.7469 |
| 2008-3 |
-0.4859 |
-1.187 |
1.4676 |
1.2737 |
0.0889 |
0.1616 |
0.0147 |
0.0567 |
6.6224 |
4.6609 |
1.0676 |
0.7007 |
| 2008-4 |
-0.6584 |
-1.4643 |
1.5369 |
1.3129 |
0.1143 |
0.2041 |
0.0171 |
0.0649 |
6.9314 |
4.3176 |
1.0871 |
0.6463 |
| 2009-1 |
-0.8028 |
-1.6575 |
1.6039 |
1.357 |
0.1229 |
0.2284 |
0.0285 |
0.0797 |
7.0876 |
3.7434 |
1.0875 |
0.581 |
| 2009-2 |
-0.9223 |
-1.7796 |
1.7073 |
1.4581 |
0.1057 |
0.2219 |
0.0396 |
0.0904 |
7.0843 |
3.0671 |
1.0875 |
0.5426 |
| 2009-3 |
-0.7699 |
-1.5936 |
1.7989 |
1.566 |
0.0944 |
0.2152 |
0.0467 |
0.0931 |
7.0456 |
2.4219 |
1.1804 |
0.624 |
| 2009-4 |
-0.8488 |
-1.6122 |
1.8404 |
1.6392 |
0.1007 |
0.2199 |
0.0584 |
0.0969 |
7.0716 |
1.9476 |
1.1705 |
0.6245 |
| 2010-1 |
-0.8207 |
-1.5058 |
1.9735 |
1.8137 |
0.0958 |
0.2081 |
0.0554 |
0.0835 |
7.2308 |
1.7574 |
1.0643 |
0.5431 |
| 2010-2 |
-0.7637 |
-1.3602 |
2.0837 |
1.9726 |
0.0884 |
0.1897 |
0.0468 |
0.0635 |
7.4969 |
1.8709 |
1.0422 |
0.5521 |
| 2010-3 |
-0.688 |
-1.192 |
2.1764 |
2.1181 |
0.0812 |
0.1685 |
0.035 |
0.0402 |
7.9572 |
2.3918 |
1.0401 |
0.5837 |
| 2010-4 |
-0.6014 |
-1.0145 |
2.3505 |
2.3472 |
0.056 |
0.1271 |
0.0222 |
0.0159 |
8.4642 |
3.1938 |
1.0657 |
0.6431 |
| 2011-1 |
-0.5098 |
-0.838 |
2.4194 |
2.4729 |
0.0443 |
0.0977 |
0.01 |
-0.007 |
8.968 |
4.2337 |
1.076 |
0.6851 |
| 2011-2 |
-0.4181 |
-0.6703 |
2.5069 |
2.6141 |
0.0348 |
0.0702 |
-0.0013 |
-0.0277 |
9.5171 |
5.4267 |
1.0965 |
0.7342 |
| 2011-3 |
-0.3303 |
-0.5176 |
2.603 |
2.7596 |
0.0252 |
0.0433 |
-0.0111 |
-0.0454 |
10.0587 |
6.6902 |
1.132 |
0.7938 |
| 2011-4 |
-0.2497 |
-0.3845 |
2.6749 |
2.875 |
0.0212 |
0.0235 |
-0.0199 |
-0.0602 |
10.6166 |
8.0059 |
1.1783 |
0.8588 |
Return to Text
Figure 6 Data Legend:
d1 prefix -- benchmark version of FRB/US
d2 prefix -- version of FRB/US with magnified transmission channgels
rff -- federal funds rate
xgdp -- real gdp
lur -- unemployment rate
picx4 -- consumer price inflation
eh -- real residential investment
ecnia -- real consumer spending