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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 000959

Managing Beliefs about Monetary Policy under Discretion

Elmar Mertens

Figure 1 (1 of 2): Policy Trade-Offs in the Simple Model. Red Curve

Y axis X axis
0.0182 0.054
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0.0659 0.057
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0.0837 0.059
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0.2445 0.1
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0.5865 0.949
0.586 0.95
0.5855 0.951
0.585 0.952
0.5845 0.953
0.584 0.954
0.5835 0.955
0.583 0.956
0.5825 0.957
0.582 0.958
0.5815 0.959
0.5809 0.96
0.5804 0.961
0.5799 0.962
0.5794 0.963
0.5789 0.964
0.5783 0.965
0.5778 0.966
0.5773 0.967
0.5768 0.968
0.5762 0.969
0.5757 0.97
0.5751 0.971
0.5746 0.972
0.5741 0.973
0.5735 0.974
0.573 0.975
0.5724 0.976
0.5719 0.977
0.5713 0.978
0.5708 0.979
0.5702 0.98
0.5696 0.981
0.5691 0.982
0.5685 0.983
0.5679 0.984
0.5674 0.985
0.5668 0.986
0.5662 0.987
0.5656 0.988
0.565 0.989
0.5645 0.99
0.5639 0.991
0.5633 0.992
0.5627 0.993
0.5621 0.994
0.5615 0.995
0.5609 0.996
0.5603 0.997
0.5597 0.998
0.5591 0.999
0.5585 1
0.5579 1.001
0.5572 1.002
0.5566 1.003
0.556 1.004
0.5554 1.005
0.5548 1.006
0.5541 1.007
0.5535 1.008
0.5529 1.009
0.5522 1.01
0.5516 1.011
0.5509 1.012
0.5503 1.013
0.5497 1.014
0.549 1.015
0.5483 1.016
0.5477 1.017
0.547 1.018
0.5464 1.019
0.5457 1.02
0.545 1.021
0.5444 1.022
0.5437 1.023
0.543 1.024
0.5423 1.025
0.5417 1.026
0.541 1.027
0.5403 1.028
0.5396 1.029
0.5389 1.03
0.5382 1.031
0.5375 1.032
0.5368 1.033
0.5361 1.034
0.5354 1.035
0.5347 1.036
0.534 1.037
0.5333 1.038
0.5326 1.039
0.5318 1.04
0.5311 1.041
0.5304 1.042
0.5297 1.043
0.5289 1.044
0.5282 1.045
0.5274 1.046
0.5267 1.047
0.526 1.048
0.5252 1.049
0.5245 1.05
0.5237 1.051
0.5229 1.052
0.5222 1.053
0.5214 1.054
0.5207 1.055
0.5199 1.056
0.5191 1.057
0.5183 1.058
0.5176 1.059
0.5168 1.06
0.516 1.061
0.5152 1.062
0.5144 1.063
0.5136 1.064
0.5128 1.065
0.512 1.066
0.5112 1.067
0.5104 1.068
0.5096 1.069
0.5088 1.07
0.5079 1.071
0.5071 1.072
0.5063 1.073
0.5055 1.074
0.5046 1.075
0.5038 1.076
0.5029 1.077
0.5021 1.078
0.5012 1.079
0.5004 1.08
0.4995 1.081
0.4987 1.082
0.4978 1.083
0.497 1.084
0.4961 1.085
0.4952 1.086
0.4943 1.087
0.4934 1.088
0.4926 1.089
0.4917 1.09
0.4908 1.091
0.4899 1.092
0.489 1.093
0.4881 1.094
0.4872 1.095
0.4863 1.096
0.4853 1.097
0.4844 1.098
0.4835 1.099
0.4826 1.1
0.4816 1.101
0.4807 1.102
0.4798 1.103
0.4788 1.104
0.4779 1.105
0.4769 1.106
0.476 1.107
0.475 1.108
0.474 1.109
0.4731 1.11
0.4721 1.111
0.4711 1.112
0.4701 1.113
0.4692 1.114
0.4682 1.115
0.4672 1.116
0.4662 1.117
0.4652 1.118
0.4642 1.119
0.4632 1.12
0.4621 1.121
0.4611 1.122
0.4601 1.123
0.4591 1.124
0.458 1.125
0.457 1.126
0.4559 1.127
0.4549 1.128
0.4538 1.129
0.4528 1.13
0.4517 1.131
0.4506 1.132
0.4496 1.133
0.4485 1.134
0.4474 1.135
0.4463 1.136
0.4452 1.137
0.4441 1.138
0.443 1.139
0.4419 1.14
0.4408 1.141
0.4397 1.142
0.4386 1.143
0.4374 1.144
0.4363 1.145
0.4351 1.146
0.434 1.147
0.4328 1.148
0.4317 1.149
0.4305 1.15
0.4294 1.151
0.4282 1.152
0.427 1.153
0.4258 1.154
0.4246 1.155
0.4234 1.156
0.4222 1.157
0.421 1.158
0.4198 1.159
0.4186 1.16
0.4173 1.161
0.4161 1.162
0.4149 1.163
0.4136 1.164
0.4124 1.165
0.4111 1.166
0.4098 1.167
0.4086 1.168
0.4073 1.169
0.406 1.17
0.4047 1.171
0.4034 1.172
0.4021 1.173
0.4008 1.174
0.3995 1.175
0.3981 1.176
0.3968 1.177
0.3955 1.178
0.3941 1.179
0.3928 1.18
0.3914 1.181
0.39 1.182
0.3887 1.183
0.3873 1.184
0.3859 1.185
0.3845 1.186
0.3831 1.187
0.3816 1.188
0.3802 1.189
0.3788 1.19
0.3773 1.191
0.3759 1.192
0.3744 1.193
0.373 1.194
0.3715 1.195
0.37 1.196
0.3685 1.197
0.367 1.198
0.3655 1.199
0.364 1.2
0.3624 1.201
0.3609 1.202
0.3593 1.203
0.3578 1.204
0.3562 1.205
0.3546 1.206
0.353 1.207
0.3514 1.208
0.3498 1.209
0.3482 1.21
0.3466 1.211
0.3449 1.212
0.3433 1.213
0.3416 1.214
0.3399 1.215
0.3383 1.216
0.3366 1.217
0.3348 1.218
0.3331 1.219
0.3314 1.22
0.3296 1.221
0.3279 1.222
0.3261 1.223
0.3243 1.224
0.3225 1.225
0.3207 1.226
0.3189 1.227
0.317 1.228
0.3152 1.229
0.3133 1.23
0.3114 1.231
0.3095 1.232
0.3076 1.233
0.3057 1.234
0.3038 1.235
0.3018 1.236
0.2998 1.237
0.2978 1.238
0.2958 1.239
0.2938 1.24
0.2917 1.241
0.2897 1.242
0.2876 1.243
0.2855 1.244
0.2834 1.245
0.2812 1.246
0.2791 1.247
0.2769 1.248
0.2747 1.249
0.2725 1.25
0.2702 1.251
0.268 1.252
0.2657 1.253
0.2633 1.254
0.261 1.255
0.2586 1.256
0.2562 1.257
0.2538 1.258
0.2514 1.259
0.2489 1.26
0.2464 1.261
0.2439 1.262
0.2413 1.263
0.2387 1.264
0.2361 1.265
0.2334 1.266
0.2307 1.267
0.228 1.268
0.2252 1.269
0.2224 1.27
0.2195 1.271
0.2166 1.272
0.2137 1.273
0.2107 1.274
0.2076 1.275
0.2046 1.276
0.2014 1.277
0.1982 1.278
0.195 1.279
0.1917 1.28
0.1883 1.281
0.1848 1.282
0.1813 1.283
0.1777 1.284
0.1741 1.285
0.1703 1.286
0.1664 1.287
0.1625 1.288
0.1584 1.289
0.1543 1.29
0.15 1.291
0.1456 1.292
0.141 1.293
0.1363 1.294
0.1314 1.295
0.1263 1.296
0.1209 1.297
0.1153 1.298
0.1095 1.299
0.1032 1.3
0.0966 1.301
0.0895 1.302
0.0817 1.303
0.0731 1.304
0.0633 1.305
0.0516 1.306
0.0364 1.307

Figure 1 (2 of 2): Policy Trade-Offs in the Simple Model. Blue Curve

Y axis X axis
1.1872  
1.188 0.001
1.1889 0.002
1.1897 0.003
1.1905 0.004
1.1914 0.005
1.1922 0.006
1.193 0.007
1.1939 0.008
1.1947 0.009
1.1955 0.01
1.1964 0.011
1.1972 0.012
1.198 0.013
1.1988 0.014
1.1996 0.015
1.2005 0.016
1.2013 0.017
1.2021 0.018
1.2029 0.019
1.2037 0.02
1.2045 0.021
1.2054 0.022
1.2062 0.023
1.207 0.024
1.2078 0.025
1.2086 0.026
1.2094 0.027
1.2102 0.028
1.211 0.029
1.2118 0.03
1.2126 0.031
1.2134 0.032
1.2142 0.033
1.215 0.034
1.2158 0.035
1.2166 0.036
1.2174 0.037
1.2182 0.038
1.219 0.039
1.2197 0.04
1.2205 0.041
1.2213 0.042
1.2221 0.043
1.2229 0.044
1.2237 0.045
1.2244 0.046
1.2252 0.047
1.226 0.048
1.2268 0.049
1.2276 0.05
1.2283 0.051
1.2291 0.052
1.2299 0.053
1.2306 0.054
1.2314 0.055
1.2322 0.056
1.2329 0.057
1.2337 0.058
1.2345 0.059
1.2352 0.06
1.236 0.061
1.2367 0.062
1.2375 0.063
1.2383 0.064
1.239 0.065
1.2398 0.066
1.2405 0.067
1.2413 0.068
1.242 0.069
1.2428 0.07
1.2435 0.071
1.2443 0.072
1.245 0.073
1.2458 0.074
1.2465 0.075
1.2472 0.076
1.248 0.077
1.2487 0.078
1.2495 0.079
1.2502 0.08
1.2509 0.081
1.2517 0.082
1.2524 0.083
1.2531 0.084
1.2539 0.085
1.2546 0.086
1.2553 0.087
1.256 0.088
1.2568 0.089
1.2575 0.09
1.2582 0.091
1.2589 0.092
1.2597 0.093
1.2604 0.094
1.2611 0.095
1.2618 0.096
1.2625 0.097
1.2632 0.098
1.264 0.099
1.2647 0.1
1.2654 0.101
1.2661 0.102
1.2668 0.103
1.2675 0.104
1.2682 0.105
1.2689 0.106
1.2696 0.107
1.2703 0.108
1.271 0.109
1.2717 0.11
1.2724 0.111
1.2731 0.112
1.2738 0.113
1.2745 0.114
1.2752 0.115
1.2759 0.116
1.2766 0.117
1.2773 0.118
1.278 0.119
1.2787 0.12
1.2794 0.121
1.28 0.122
1.2807 0.123
1.2814 0.124
1.2821 0.125
1.2828 0.126
1.2835 0.127
1.2841 0.128
1.2848 0.129
1.2855 0.13
1.2862 0.131
1.2868 0.132
1.2875 0.133
1.2882 0.134
1.2889 0.135
1.2895 0.136
1.2902 0.137
1.2909 0.138
1.2915 0.139
1.2922 0.14
1.2929 0.141
1.2935 0.142
1.2942 0.143
1.2949 0.144
1.2955 0.145
1.2962 0.146
1.2968 0.147
1.2975 0.148
1.2981 0.149
1.2988 0.15
1.2995 0.151
1.3001 0.152
1.3008 0.153
1.3014 0.154
1.3021 0.155
1.3027 0.156
1.3034 0.157
1.304 0.158
1.3046 0.159
1.3053 0.16
1.3059 0.161
1.3066 0.162
1.3072 0.163
1.3079 0.164
1.3085 0.165
1.3091 0.166
1.3098 0.167
1.3104 0.168
1.311 0.169
1.3117 0.17
1.3123 0.171
1.3129 0.172
1.3136 0.173
1.3142 0.174
1.3148 0.175
1.3154 0.176
1.3161 0.177
1.3167 0.178
1.3173 0.179
1.3179 0.18
1.3186 0.181
1.3192 0.182
1.3198 0.183
1.3204 0.184
1.321 0.185
1.3217 0.186
1.3223 0.187
1.3229 0.188
1.3235 0.189
1.3241 0.19
1.3247 0.191
1.3253 0.192
1.3259 0.193
1.3266 0.194
1.3272 0.195
1.3278 0.196
1.3284 0.197
1.329 0.198
1.3296 0.199
1.3302 0.2
1.3308 0.201
1.3314 0.202
1.332 0.203
1.3326 0.204
1.3332 0.205
1.3338 0.206
1.3344 0.207
1.335 0.208
1.3356 0.209
1.3361 0.21
1.3367 0.211
1.3373 0.212
1.3379 0.213
1.3385 0.214
1.3391 0.215
1.3397 0.216
1.3403 0.217
1.3408 0.218
1.3414 0.219
1.342 0.22
1.3426 0.221
1.3432 0.222
1.3437 0.223
1.3443 0.224
1.3449 0.225
1.3455 0.226
1.3461 0.227
1.3466 0.228
1.3472 0.229
1.3478 0.23
1.3483 0.231
1.3489 0.232
1.3495 0.233
1.35 0.234
1.3506 0.235
1.3512 0.236
1.3517 0.237
1.3523 0.238
1.3529 0.239
1.3534 0.24
1.354 0.241
1.3546 0.242
1.3551 0.243
1.3557 0.244
1.3562 0.245
1.3568 0.246
1.3573 0.247
1.3579 0.248
1.3584 0.249
1.359 0.25
1.3596 0.251
1.3601 0.252
1.3607 0.253
1.3612 0.254
1.3617 0.255
1.3623 0.256
1.3628 0.257
1.3634 0.258
1.3639 0.259
1.3645 0.26
1.365 0.261
1.3656 0.262
1.3661 0.263
1.3666 0.264
1.3672 0.265
1.3677 0.266
1.3682 0.267
1.3688 0.268
1.3693 0.269
1.3698 0.27
1.3704 0.271
1.3709 0.272
1.3714 0.273
1.372 0.274
1.3725 0.275
1.373 0.276
1.3736 0.277
1.3741 0.278
1.3746 0.279
1.3751 0.28
1.3757 0.281
1.3762 0.282
1.3767 0.283
1.3772 0.284
1.3777 0.285
1.3783 0.286
1.3788 0.287
1.3793 0.288
1.3798 0.289
1.3803 0.29
1.3808 0.291
1.3813 0.292
1.3819 0.293
1.3824 0.294
1.3829 0.295
1.3834 0.296
1.3839 0.297
1.3844 0.298
1.3849 0.299
1.3854 0.3
1.3859 0.301
1.3864 0.302
1.3869 0.303
1.3874 0.304
1.3879 0.305
1.3884 0.306
1.3889 0.307
1.3894 0.308
1.3899 0.309
1.3904 0.31
1.3909 0.311
1.3914 0.312
1.3919 0.313
1.3924 0.314
1.3929 0.315
1.3934 0.316
1.3939 0.317
1.3944 0.318
1.3949 0.319
1.3953 0.32
1.3958 0.321
1.3963 0.322
1.3968 0.323
1.3973 0.324
1.3978 0.325
1.3983 0.326
1.3987 0.327
1.3992 0.328
1.3997 0.329
1.4002 0.33
1.4006 0.331
1.4011 0.332
1.4016 0.333
1.4021 0.334
1.4026 0.335
1.403 0.336
1.4035 0.337
1.404 0.338
1.4044 0.339
1.4049 0.34
1.4054 0.341
1.4059 0.342
1.4063 0.343
1.4068 0.344
1.4073 0.345
1.4077 0.346
1.4082 0.347
1.4086 0.348
1.4091 0.349
1.4096 0.35
1.41 0.351
1.4105 0.352
1.4109 0.353
1.4114 0.354
1.4119 0.355
1.4123 0.356
1.4128 0.357
1.4132 0.358
1.4137 0.359
1.4141 0.36
1.4146 0.361
1.415 0.362
1.4155 0.363
1.4159 0.364
1.4164 0.365
1.4168 0.366
1.4173 0.367
1.4177 0.368
1.4182 0.369
1.4186 0.37
1.4191 0.371
1.4195 0.372
1.4199 0.373
1.4204 0.374
1.4208 0.375
1.4213 0.376
1.4217 0.377
1.4221 0.378
1.4226 0.379
1.423 0.38
1.4235 0.381
1.4239 0.382
1.4243 0.383
1.4248 0.384
1.4252 0.385
1.4256 0.386
1.426 0.387
1.4265 0.388
1.4269 0.389
1.4273 0.39
1.4278 0.391
1.4282 0.392
1.4286 0.393
1.429 0.394
1.4295 0.395
1.4299 0.396
1.4303 0.397
1.4307 0.398
1.4311 0.399
1.4316 0.4
1.432 0.401
1.4324 0.402
1.4328 0.403
1.4332 0.404
1.4337 0.405
1.4341 0.406
1.4345 0.407
1.4349 0.408
1.4353 0.409
1.4357 0.41
1.4361 0.411
1.4365 0.412
1.4369 0.413
1.4374 0.414
1.4378 0.415
1.4382 0.416
1.4386 0.417
1.439 0.418
1.4394 0.419
1.4398 0.42
1.4402 0.421
1.4406 0.422
1.441 0.423
1.4414 0.424
1.4418 0.425
1.4422 0.426
1.4426 0.427
1.443 0.428
1.4434 0.429
1.4438 0.43
1.4442 0.431
1.4446 0.432
1.445 0.433
1.4453 0.434
1.4457 0.435
1.4461 0.436
1.4465 0.437
1.4469 0.438
1.4473 0.439
1.4477 0.44
1.4481 0.441
1.4485 0.442
1.4488 0.443
1.4492 0.444
1.4496 0.445
1.45 0.446
1.4504 0.447
1.4508 0.448
1.4511 0.449
1.4515 0.45
1.4519 0.451
1.4523 0.452
1.4526 0.453
1.453 0.454
1.4534 0.455
1.4538 0.456
1.4541 0.457
1.4545 0.458
1.4549 0.459
1.4553 0.46
1.4556 0.461
1.456 0.462
1.4564 0.463
1.4567 0.464
1.4571 0.465
1.4575 0.466
1.4578 0.467
1.4582 0.468
1.4586 0.469
1.4589 0.47
1.4593 0.471
1.4597 0.472
1.46 0.473
1.4604 0.474
1.4607 0.475
1.4611 0.476
1.4615 0.477
1.4618 0.478
1.4622 0.479
1.4625 0.48
1.4629 0.481
1.4632 0.482
1.4636 0.483
1.4639 0.484
1.4643 0.485
1.4646 0.486
1.465 0.487
1.4653 0.488
1.4657 0.489
1.466 0.49
1.4664 0.491
1.4667 0.492
1.4671 0.493
1.4674 0.494
1.4678 0.495
1.4681 0.496
1.4685 0.497
1.4688 0.498
1.4691 0.499
1.4695 0.5
1.4698 0.501
1.4702 0.502
1.4705 0.503
1.4708 0.504
1.4712 0.505
1.4715 0.506
1.4718 0.507
1.4722 0.508
1.4725 0.509
1.4728 0.51
1.4732 0.511
1.4735 0.512
1.4738 0.513
1.4742 0.514
1.4745 0.515
1.4748 0.516
1.4752 0.517
1.4755 0.518
1.4758 0.519
1.4761 0.52
1.4765 0.521
1.4768 0.522
1.4771 0.523
1.4774 0.524
1.4778 0.525
1.4781 0.526
1.4784 0.527
1.4787 0.528
1.479 0.529
1.4794 0.53
1.4797 0.531
1.48 0.532
1.4803 0.533
1.4806 0.534
1.4809 0.535
1.4812 0.536
1.4816 0.537
1.4819 0.538
1.4822 0.539
1.4825 0.54
1.4828 0.541
1.4831 0.542
1.4834 0.543
1.4837 0.544
1.484 0.545
1.4843 0.546
1.4846 0.547
1.485 0.548
1.4853 0.549
1.4856 0.55
1.4859 0.551
1.4862 0.552
1.4865 0.553
1.4868 0.554
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1.4828 1.459
1.4825 1.46
1.4822 1.461
1.4819 1.462
1.4816 1.463
1.4812 1.464
1.4809 1.465
1.4806 1.466
1.4803 1.467
1.48 1.468
1.4797 1.469
1.4794 1.47
1.479 1.471
1.4787 1.472
1.4784 1.473
1.4781 1.474
1.4778 1.475
1.4774 1.476
1.4771 1.477
1.4768 1.478
1.4765 1.479
1.4761 1.48
1.4758 1.481
1.4755 1.482
1.4752 1.483
1.4748 1.484
1.4745 1.485
1.4742 1.486
1.4738 1.487
1.4735 1.488
1.4732 1.489
1.4728 1.49
1.4725 1.491
1.4722 1.492
1.4718 1.493
1.4715 1.494
1.4712 1.495
1.4708 1.496
1.4705 1.497
1.4702 1.498
1.4698 1.499
1.4695 1.5