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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 2011-25 ♣

Household Income Uncertainties over Three Decades

James Feigenbaum and Geng Li

Figure 1: Trends in family non-capital income uncertainty

wave VARfamnastlead2 VARfamnastlead4 VARfamnastlead6 VARfamnastlead8 VARfamnastlead10
1971 0.05404295707575 0.0745901660882572 0.0886312173476987 0.10751237811013 0.125046305986714
1972 0.0532778273784504 0.0753384232481012 0.0925978006030023 0.104763499876378 0.131117293207556
1973 0.0601251831318437 0.0689314826321717 0.0927371214240157 0.114880937730075 0.125410038573037
1974 0.0594110570376879 0.0808274445485203 0.0930937229689371 0.116129101956828 0.125434597214398
1975 0.0517583193447194 0.0839125254624301 0.106768474586869 0.114009689038032 0.147935563086434
1976 0.0607594445419614 0.0732015761484756 0.0997183032179057 0.117957020620055 0.154330789549031
1977 0.0629464470708514 0.0908014394185262 0.105739717610804 0.135175501429751 0.150340685722022
1978 0.0559414514074831 0.0929396942100341 0.107279569014561 0.137459828159424 0.149637986362143
1979 0.0658016345493987 0.0857822852176998 0.110795951494832 0.136581322152896 0.142190683244534
1980 0.061718762468818 0.0954068516332927 0.117639958473421 0.13539123060924 0.151080511127675
1981 0.0638223266993356 0.0911520219230839 0.113385328349258 0.121341682560397 0.143346537109325
1982 0.0571352047337455 0.0913018371825614 0.110757873436833 0.130064795931611 0.145679114935076
1983 0.063043446515405 0.0918104234206471 0.108664837211729 0.136326120102332 0.152660735584041
1984 0.0679460368462919 0.0905480296525963 0.122262429701348 0.152323210041116 0.145849083788621
1985 0.0629869993764498 0.0946140075683543 0.126102232262388 0.129399895151269 0.147110772902357
1986 0.0606209954479308 0.0958316375038142 0.133454377545382 0.12963823921608 0.148324604188195
1987 0.0631100887754626 0.105070313429654 0.123258681936774 0.129876869535073 0.142118042322157
1988 0.0622786200259004 0.10912374787847 0.109611269694246 0.12606318791557 0.13591148045612
1989 0.0661951300585019 0.0976597300219758 0.107024653284693 0.119999368211308 0.139956244047919
1990 0.0734061791423838 0.085451566873129 0.108873655579078 0.113935548507047 0.144001007639718
1991 0.0710474805495157 0.0875285638174509 0.10946012646585 0.119226344441424 0.15698123048695
1992 0.0637161769896748 0.0964160024672667 0.110046597352622 0.1245171403758 0.169961453334182
1993 0.0694003491506495 0.0935889008788744 0.11565767707881 0.143555049165368 0.162757606034011
1994 0.0687444820457271 0.0907617992904821 0.121268756804999 0.162592957954935 0.155553758733841
1995 0.0695544332006647 0.0914549785528048 0.128674763231089 0.15231813878569  
1996 0.0703643843556023 0.0921481578151276 0.136080769657179 0.142043319616444  
1997 0.072102903743849 0.104475962406142 0.13458806120301    
1998 0.0738414231320958 0.116803766997157 0.133095352748841    
1999 0.0781228509392419 0.113775041645687      
2000 0.082404278746388 0.110746316294218      
2001 0.0826362454128335        
2002 0.0828682120792789        
Return to Figure 1

Figure 2: Trends in the persistence of forecast errors

wave famnastreslead2 famnastreslead5 famnastreslead10
1971 0.478171503498684 0.334020471796586 0.190154552211733
1972 0.452292591403302 0.307928228969096 0.183156715041212
1973 0.4521228525621 0.289758815839611 0.188066955636064
1974 0.474203245030738 0.200271460508734 0.149511999420439
1975 0.527704821499019 0.323379133645146 0.171749664053837
1976 0.485471739108997 0.251259260461057 0.185752917605549
1977 0.496855697663599 0.240200966288496 0.180725946315716
1978 0.5361525634863 0.297528648947427 0.193155552423075
1979 0.524374308567667 0.263276992469651 0.177527207233408
1980 0.4893030150115 0.262117557858168 0.234524413626664
1981 0.510080403488399 0.252058062945442 0.20014240200976
1982 0.459199763930301 0.335445853693337 0.154661398179533
1983 0.500175932543527 0.311005088062218 0.175532208891165
1984 0.492791470210821 0.28233432863875 0.173922200594615
1985 0.537848727369942 0.359161109958309 0.208816544422756
1986 0.477045033543629 0.244185318238661 0.183113129862978
1987 0.506467592393847 0.250452076216779 0.212921575797486
1988 0.459993441629061 0.252061961146989 0.242730021731993
1989 0.499478076802278 0.324675972375696 0.200466320080327
1990 0.433549166548894 0.197907072652462 0.158202618428661
1991 0.395261482725863 0.272187577938499 0.157056467197449
1992 0.474736866713793 0.280545512274261 0.155910315966237
1993 0.491449310229277 0.288903446610024 0.182389859409497
1994 0.509789443070336 0.30926705794074 0.208869402852757
Return to Figure 2

Figure 3: Comparing the income uncertainty profiles in 1970s and 2000s

1971-73 1992-94
0.0367438896886686 0.0501291965382996
0.0558140657772875 0.0672853110226462
0.066037334592072 0.0820922401329454
0.0729550937884239 0.0935897778750871
0.0856854383261443 0.101670583503944
0.091327307723954 0.115659444149686
0.101702399906309 0.132113487451743
0.109052271905527 0.143555049165368
0.119367120867139 0.159974899695834
0.127191212589102 0.162757606034011
Return to Figure 3

Figure 4: Income uncertainty of single-earners and dual-earners

wave Two Earners Single Earner
1971 0.0562160814006052 0.0523179266963386
1972 0.0493953846596199 0.0524791156041315
1973 0.0569471270674854 0.0606633674144319
1974 0.0502669340817406 0.0642163201204684
1975 0.0476230183509325 0.0526023225909379
1976 0.0549133861290079 0.0625705874563583
1977 0.050419491969859 0.0653640043097051
1978 0.0483325419787956 0.0579835599675596
1979 0.0579470430072838 0.067933070294551
1980 0.0530278020435338 0.0637568427631669
1981 0.0591765730542233 0.06226714752579
1982 0.0467494450478442 0.0621599637428626
1983 0.0616522282484222 0.066211456967241
1984 0.0553325117850105 0.0786959707356539
1985 0.0546593802417169 0.071310316050872
1986 0.0541043292803199 0.0661204594926274
1987 0.0588211215281477 0.0664932943498357
1988 0.0608907908388463 0.0625085784569048
1989 0.0581083346565613 0.0735176887002612
1990 0.0726152559784931 0.0728359561249956
1991 0.0606893427872453 0.0815667806139201
1992 0.059135412898761 0.0668973823935182
1993 0.0601416083392254 0.0759000449267451
1994 0.0660192653261047 0.0709550184320192
1995 0.0625812297360834 0.0751147333490981
1996 0.059143194146062 0.0792744482661769
1997 0.059138887645208 0.0821479651931002
1998 0.0591345811443539 0.0850214821200235
1999 0.0665011994077265 0.0840361907827764
2000 0.073867817671099 0.0830508994455293
2001 0.0733449833889978 0.0889522492251557
2002 0.0728221491068966 0.094853599004782
Return to Figure 4

Figure 5: Income uncertainty across income quartiles

wave Low Income Low Middle Income High Middle Income High Income
1971 0.0605291336685814 0.0572925655351822 0.0466294947390815 0.0500357365540139
1972 0.0701598266103075 0.0509458046708257 0.0439685351411075 0.0444158449170252
1973 0.0850747392017702 0.0545240448841117 0.0572388746266372 0.0474412854310231
1974 0.0755850661306693 0.0605859601257509 0.0506714361433803 0.0563592755344673
1975 0.0615415387248448 0.0604135619566339 0.0469323336844316 0.0383596469539714
1976 0.0802787595635144 0.0634511145768533 0.0505500001349297 0.0508961252110081
1977 0.0866971715288825 0.0541944879911572 0.0547202869747083 0.0513631590224623
1978 0.067546256917516 0.0630237137934177 0.0447822840616033 0.0461003232091565
1979 0.0870781402226446 0.055369834598898 0.0603401441983191 0.0569479211477626
1980 0.0678117104530644 0.0568421568692955 0.0619108229153219 0.0557512846937745
1981 0.0736205370799447 0.0685451400856554 0.0540686737454639 0.0508648697800051
1982 0.0742935895333546 0.0534756536141868 0.0433236264938254 0.0580286382749726
1983 0.083268290761263 0.0592512748113768 0.0572330375293606 0.0610766154610959
1984 0.0997626106442549 0.0712197301581591 0.057248651662413 0.0556925100842438
1985 0.0758873765152231 0.06683041753828 0.0562937459216615 0.0613515195466378
1986 0.0755590969417051 0.0633437679673148 0.0484929194376883 0.0588140361203279
1987 0.0819346886559691 0.0556856792915187 0.0557666327348316 0.0598677287749566
1988 0.0742031055283273 0.0653824048586704 0.0520402713876921 0.0557932734311736
1989 0.087241000124094 0.0604873433199916 0.0570454640759006 0.0644719899989074
1990 0.087474251161131 0.0607835305520529 0.0723901712920678 0.0691586758015974
1991 0.0843598953580293 0.0743120158293024 0.0568239477196935 0.0756644719463405
1992 0.0775772897125822 0.0616393846770147 0.056944601671641 0.0570961782545464
1993 0.0795550716725617 0.0601424100949845 0.0688501278537852 0.067946884993139
1994 0.0690669902476682 0.0727644558138918 0.0569011326106567 0.0769336556574317
1995 0.0843759329487425 0.0678989425204227 0.0578813230967868 0.069898527750246
1996 0.0996848756498168 0.0630334292269536 0.058861513582917 0.0628633998430603
1997 0.0980497008474356 0.0733571094806613 0.0527730735238286 0.0648436651381022
1998 0.0964145260450544 0.0836807897343691 0.0466846334647403 0.0668239304331441
1999 0.0884436330436759 0.0772098015700776 0.0652933422549671 0.0739943607822852
2000 0.0804727400422973 0.0707388134057861 0.0839020510451939 0.0811647911314263
2001 0.0939529535213382 0.0804013380288012 0.0747037917638426 0.0795939100821844
2002 0.107433167000379 0.0900638626518164 0.0655055324824914 0.0780230290329425
Return to Figure 5

Figure 6: Income uncertainty estimated using samples created with different trimming thresholds

  A C B
1971 0.0403791982414728 0.0723850965334098 0.05404295707575
1972 0.0387997199407513 0.0732852906527781 0.0532778273784504
1973 0.0446271933321899 0.0861255299802918 0.0601251831318437
1974 0.0444864026299232 0.0845182004666845 0.0594110570376879
1975 0.0379360156636774 0.0767510343733556 0.0517583193447194
1976 0.0448470578959441 0.0826317217005692 0.0607594445419614
1977 0.0448185352886673 0.086001068484308 0.0629464470708514
1978 0.0410508686542257 0.0805982424364092 0.0559414514074831
1979 0.0474414401382436 0.0911912672878792 0.0658016345493987
1980 0.0451066318203059 0.0865455663155202 0.061718762468818
1981 0.0475602892556604 0.0863918634561507 0.0638223266993356
1982 0.0428186412705783 0.082861246613203 0.0571352047337455
1983 0.0450904575377705 0.089350719901264 0.063043446515405
1984 0.0468608171558543 0.0975570427043081 0.0679460368462919
1985 0.0440898038965321 0.0910935244623756 0.0629869993764498
1986 0.0429318439919901 0.0885602103372499 0.0606209954479308
1987 0.0455231482656621 0.0891584988082238 0.0631100887754626
1988 0.0443268389908871 0.0992551311477273 0.0622786200259004
1989 0.0484867649315327 0.0997270435904564 0.0661951300585019
1990 0.0506643758283399 0.113123275296241 0.0734061791423838
1991 0.0498600368526647 0.116938533320726 0.0710474805495157
1992 0.0456631159636862 0.0973378374833769 0.0637161769896748
1993 0.04960097089021 0.10475894005847 0.0694003491506495
1994 0.0488617751241948 0.112994404471231 0.0687444820457271
1995 0.0499749826243414 0.113633113180568 0.0695544332006647
1996 0.051088190124488 0.114271821889905 0.0703643843556023
1997 0.0510813784209623 0.112300360543956 0.072102903743849
1998 0.0510745667174366 0.110328899198007 0.0738414231320958
1999 0.054219141282782 0.128319048617977 0.0781228509392419
2000 0.0573637158481273 0.146309198037946 0.082404278746388
2001 0.0558889496022515 0.140699824441516 0.0826362454128335
2002 0.0544141833563758 0.135090450845085 0.0828682120792789
Return to Figure 6

Figure 7: Income uncertainty estimated using an invariant sample

wave Alt Base
1971 0.0507379775748541 0.05404295707575
1972 0.0504933657920644 0.0532778273784504
1973 0.0603738916878464 0.0601251831318437
1974 0.0584960607575007 0.0594110570376879
1975 0.0502818412078318 0.0517583193447194
1976 0.0583690469567821 0.0607594445419614
1977 0.0622513556105514 0.0629464470708514
1978 0.0534180335553322 0.0559414514074831
1979 0.0630249603685545 0.0658016345493987
1980 0.0598502875846033 0.061718762468818
1981 0.0644511570769785 0.0638223266993356
1982 0.0572881516873426 0.0571352047337455
1983 0.0618113673560077 0.063043446515405
1984 0.0645994071509502 0.0679460368462919
1985 0.0623080755667542 0.0629869993764498
1986 0.0588775780483565 0.0606209954479308
1987 0.0603287531703293 0.0631100887754626
1988 0.0617799282923021 0.0622786200259004
1989 0.0660053049342168 0.0661951300585019
1990 0.0702306815761315 0.0734061791423838
1991 0.0667776611115208 0.0710474805495157
1992 0.06332464064691 0.0637161769896748
1993 0.0653439951093969 0.0694003491506495
1994 0.0673633495718837 0.0687444820457271
Return to Figure 7

Figure 8: Income uncertainty estimated with additional information

wave AIS2 AIS10 RIS2 RIS10
1971 0.0515525101607391 0.111757127003411 0.0540412348525248 0.125046305986714
1972 0.0519308779251686 0.119062923331334 0.0532775076004889 0.131117293207556
1973 0.0582444200021156 0.112589046802904 0.0601234548788487 0.125410038573037
1974 0.0583062048994514 0.114457937617225 0.0594123657706344 0.125434597214398
1975 0.0499026034614594 0.132621005078716 0.0517604406025066 0.147935563086434
1976 0.0586143479341231 0.132905870911492 0.0607608504828749 0.154330789549031
1977 0.060853331466812 0.124203706319195 0.0629489061961649 0.150340685722022
1978 0.0539471294752281 0.137273175038492 0.0559408466486195 0.149637986362143
1979 0.0631455358586286 0.1282622935981 0.0658008810517077 0.142190683244534
1980 0.0601602033926516 0.13830438974757 0.0617172532415306 0.151080511127675
1981 0.0611666122407938 0.126059922234773 0.0638222025995461 0.143346537109325
1982 0.0554429438391299 0.13260743849701 0.0571353737394879 0.145679114935076
1983 0.0601671093297452 0.136690820015218 0.063044323795752 0.152660735584041
1984 0.0646186038407055 0.128369806761791 0.0679458026658079 0.145849083788621
1985 0.0601971289302343 0.126712419453736 0.0629890787886562 0.147110772902357
1986 0.0587008133345092 0.134191341961294 0.0606216357297541 0.148324604188195
1987 0.0592758366177575 0.127791215205879 0.0631101002221032 0.142118042322157
1988 0.059302564609324 0.121391088450465 0.0622776359064941 0.13591148045612
1989 0.061916512857264 0.12405631856969 0.0661955372428135 0.139956244047919
1990 0.0695604560490168 0.126721548688916 0.0734059808787514 0.144001007639718
1991 0.0664917063856399 0.138657083963207 0.0710473109684299 0.15698123048695
1992 0.0621375272532615 0.150592619237497 0.0637143038421234 0.169961453334182
1993 0.0662787615210294 0.145130378424312 0.0693976278440991 0.162757606034011
1994 0.0658668032789596 0.139668137611126 0.0687440013817162 0.155553758733841
1995 0.0668615252362738   0.0695538320763217  
1996 0.0678562471935879   0.0703636627709272  
1997 0.0695183134512483   0.0715231336271092  
1998 0.0711803797089088   0.0726826044832911  
1999 0.0728424459665692   0.0738420753394731  
2000 0.0772869665150022   0.078124718658809  
2001 0.0817314870634352   0.082407361978145  
2002 0.081216557592578   0.0826387141795509  
Return to Figure 8

Figure 9: Trends of Persistent and Transitory Income Shock Variances

year Permanent Temporary
1972 0.0162868387327869 0.021833313121
1973 0.0153629699065574 0.025528050625
1974 0.0172508832398907 0.022712298436
1975 0.0179411763983606 0.023705529156
1976 0.0180073792136612 0.024716870656
1977 0.0220535505185792 0.0195636169
1978 0.0216953852595628 0.020528012176
1979 0.0211391234185792 0.022684576996
1980 0.0240208493136612 0.017983346404
1981 0.0211064628546448 0.022413982369
1982 0.0206610031743169 0.024322273936
1983 0.0212071038251366 0.026392601764
1984 0.0211995689754098 0.029414994064
1985 0.0222802720923497 0.023695676356
1986 0.0192473531852459 0.031106729641
1987 0.019244584279918 0.02953534402225
1988 0.0192418155737705 0.028004683716
1989 0.0187664348668033 0.028108199025
1990 0.0182970001229508 0.028211905296
1991 0.0198822998668033 0.027326734864
1992 0.0215334536065574 0.026455673104
1993 0.0219370113017759 0.02698052630625
1994 0.0223443155021858 0.027510534769
Return to Figure 9
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Last update: May 12, 2011