Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for FEDS Paper 2012-34
♣
Time-to-Plan Lags for Commercial Construction Projects
Figure 1: Estimated Planning Duration by Metropolitan Area for Standardized Project in months
| MSA Name | Time to Plan |
|---|---|
| Abilene TX | 12 |
| Akron OH | 10 |
| Albany GA | 12 |
| Albany-Schenectady-Troy NY | 16 |
| Albuquerque NM | 8 |
| Alexandria LA | 12 |
| Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton PA-NJ | 16 |
| Altoona PA | 20 |
| Amarillo TX | 12 |
| Ames IA | 13 |
| Anderson IN | 9 |
| Anderson SC | 7 |
| Ann Arbor MI | 9 |
| Anniston-Oxford AL | 12 |
| Appleton WI | 9 |
| Asheville NC | 8 |
| Athens-Clarke County GA | 12 |
| Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta GA | 14 |
| Atlantic City NJ | 14 |
| Auburn-Opelika AL | 11 |
| Augusta-Richmond County GA-SC | 13 |
| Austin-Round Rock TX | 10 |
| Bakersfield CA | 14 |
| Baltimore-Towson MD | 16 |
| Bangor ME | 12 |
| Barnstable Town MA | 14 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 10 |
| Battle Creek MI | 8 |
| Bay City MI | 5 |
| Beaumont-Port Arthur TX | 10 |
| Bellingham WA | 6 |
| Bend OR | 10 |
| Billings MT | 9 |
| Binghamton NY | 16 |
| Birmingham-Hoover AL | 8 |
| Bismarck ND | 10 |
| Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford VA | 20 |
| Bloomington IN | 6 |
| Bloomington-Normal IL | 10 |
| Boise City-Nampa ID | 10 |
| Boston-Cambridge-Quincy MA-NH | 12 |
| Boulder CO | 9 |
| Bowling Green KY | 7 |
| Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice FL | 10 |
| Bremerton-Silverdale WA | 11 |
| Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk CT | 12 |
| Brownsville-Harlingen TX | 12 |
| Brunswick GA | 16 |
| Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Tonawanda NY | 15 |
| Burlington NC | 9 |
| Burlington-South Burlington VT | 13 |
| Canton-Massillon OH | 10 |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers FL | 8 |
| Carson City NV | 7 |
| Casper WY | 10 |
| Cedar Rapids IA | 8 |
| Champaign-Urbana IL | 10 |
| Charleston WV | 9 |
| Charleston-North Charleston SC | 11 |
| Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord NC-SC | 9 |
| Charlottesville VA | 19 |
| Chattanooga TN-GA | 7 |
| Cheyenne WY | 11 |
| Chicago-Naperville-Joliet IL-IN-WI | 11 |
| Chico CA | 13 |
| Cincinnati-Middletown OH-KY-IN | 9 |
| Clarksville TN-KY | 9 |
| Cleveland TN | 6 |
| Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor OH | 10 |
| Coeur d'Alene ID | 9 |
| College Station-Bryan TX | 9 |
| Colorado Springs CO | 9 |
| Columbia MO | 11 |
| Columbia SC | 9 |
| Columbus GA-AL | 13 |
| Columbus IN | 5 |
| Columbus OH | 10 |
| Corpus Christi TX | 11 |
| Corvallis OR | 15 |
| Cumberland MD-WV | 13 |
| Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX | 13 |
| Dalton GA | 8 |
| Danville IL | 14 |
| Danville VA | 8 |
| Davenport-Moline-Rock Island IA-IL | 11 |
| Dayton OH | 9 |
| Decatur AL | 9 |
| Decatur IL | 11 |
| Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach FL | 14 |
| Denver-Aurora CO | 9 |
| Des Moines IA | 10 |
| Detroit-Warren-Livonia MI | 10 |
| Dothan AL | 9 |
| Dover DE | 13 |
| Dubuque IA | 8 |
| Duluth MN-WI | 8 |
| Durham NC | 12 |
| Eau Claire WI | 11 |
| El Centro CA | 21 |
| Elizabethtown KY | 11 |
| Elkhart-Goshen IN | 5 |
| Elmira NY | 10 |
| El Paso TX | 8 |
| Erie PA | 14 |
| Eugene-Springfield OR | 13 |
| Evansville IN-KY | 7 |
| Fargo ND-MN | 10 |
| Farmington NM | 9 |
| Fayetteville NC | 9 |
| Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers AR-MO | 11 |
| Flagstaff AZ | 12 |
| Flint MI | 9 |
| Florence SC | 8 |
| Florence AL | 6 |
| Fond du Lac WI | 12 |
| Fort Collins-Loveland CO | 10 |
| Fort Smith AR-OK | 9 |
| Fort Walton Beach-Crestview-Destin FL | 10 |
| Fort Wayne IN | 7 |
| Fresno CA | 17 |
| Gadsden AL | 8 |
| Gainesville FL | 10 |
| Gainesville GA | 17 |
| Glens Falls NY | 13 |
| Goldsboro NC | 15 |
| Grand Forks ND-MN | 5 |
| Grand Junction CO | 10 |
| Grand Rapids-Wyoming MI | 10 |
| Great Falls MT | 8 |
| Greeley CO | 10 |
| Green Bay WI | 7 |
| Greensboro-High Point NC | 10 |
| Greenville NC | 7 |
| Greenville SC | 8 |
| Gulfport-Biloxi MS | 13 |
| Hagerstown-Martinsburg MD-WV | 16 |
| Hanford-Corcoran CA | 9 |
| Harrisburg-Carlisle PA | 17 |
| Harrisonburg VA | 17 |
| Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford CT | 12 |
| Hattiesburg MS | 11 |
| Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir NC | 6 |
| Holland-Grand Haven MI | 8 |
| Hot Springs AR | 11 |
| Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux LA | 12 |
| Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land TX | 10 |
| Huntington-Ashland WV-KY-OH | 12 |
| Huntsville AL | 8 |
| Idaho Falls ID | 5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 6 |
| Iowa City IA | 11 |
| Ithaca NY | 13 |
| Jackson MI | 11 |
| Jackson MS | 9 |
| Jackson TN | 9 |
| Jacksonville FL | 12 |
| Jacksonville NC | 13 |
| Janesville WI | 18 |
| Jefferson City MO | 16 |
| Johnson City TN | 6 |
| Johnstown PA | 13 |
| Jonesboro AR | 12 |
| Joplin MO | 8 |
| Kalamazoo-Portage MI | 8 |
| Kansas City MO-KS | 12 |
| Kennewick-Richland-Pasco WA | 6 |
| Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood TX | 12 |
| Kingsport-Bristol TN-VA | 8 |
| Kingston NY | 17 |
| Knoxville TN | 7 |
| Kokomo IN | 9 |
| La Crosse WI-MN | 12 |
| Lafayette IN | 5 |
| Lafayette LA | 9 |
| Lake Charles LA | 9 |
| Lakeland-Winter Haven FL | 12 |
| Lancaster PA | 17 |
| Lansing-East Lansing MI | 11 |
| Laredo TX | 8 |
| Las Cruces NM | 11 |
| Las Vegas-Paradise NV | 15 |
| Lawrence KS | 10 |
| Lawton OK | 8 |
| Lebanon PA | 19 |
| Lewiston ID-WA | 13 |
| Lewiston-Auburn ME | 11 |
| Lexington-Fayette KY | 10 |
| Lima OH | 12 |
| Lincoln NE | 12 |
| Little Rock-North Little Rock AR | 13 |
| Logan UT-ID | 6 |
| Longview TX | 8 |
| Longview-Kelso WA | 9 |
| Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana CA | 12 |
| Louisville KY-IN | 10 |
| Lubbock TX | 15 |
| Lynchburg VA | 9 |
| Macon GA | 13 |
| Madera CA | 24 |
| Madison WI | 10 |
| Manchester-Nashua NH | 10 |
| Mansfield OH | 7 |
| McAllen-Edinburg-Pharr TX | 9 |
| Medford OR | 12 |
| Memphis TN-MS-AR | 8 |
| Merced CA | 16 |
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach FL | 17 |
| Michigan City-La Porte IN | 6 |
| Midland TX | 11 |
| Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis WI | 10 |
| Minneapolis-St Paul-Bloomington MN-WI | 8 |
| Missoula MT | 10 |
| Mobile AL | 11 |
| Modesto CA | 17 |
| Monroe LA | 10 |
| Monroe MI | 11 |
| Montgomery AL | 8 |
| Morgantown WV | 8 |
| Morristown TN | 9 |
| Mount Vernon-Anacortes WA | 5 |
| Muncie IN | 6 |
| Muskegon-Norton Shores MI | 11 |
| Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach SC | 9 |
| Napa CA | 18 |
| Naples-Marco Island FL | 11 |
| Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro TN | 7 |
| New Haven-Milford CT | 13 |
| New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner LA | 9 |
| New York-Newark-Edison NY-NJ-PA | 16 |
| Niles-Benton Harbor MI | 9 |
| Norwich-New London CT | 12 |
| Ocala FL | 11 |
| Ocean City NJ | 26 |
| Odessa TX | 13 |
| Ogden-Clearfield UT | 8 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 14 |
| Olympia WA | 14 |
| Omaha-Council Bluffs NE-IA | 10 |
| Orlando FL | 14 |
| Oshkosh-Neenah WI | 10 |
| Owensboro KY | 10 |
| Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura CA | 14 |
| Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville FL | 16 |
| Panama City-Lynn Haven FL | 10 |
| Parkersburg-Marietta WV-OH | 10 |
| Pascagoula MS | 11 |
| Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent FL | 9 |
| Peoria IL | 10 |
| Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington PA-NJ-DE-MD | 17 |
| Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ | 12 |
| Pine Bluff AR | 9 |
| Pittsburgh PA | 15 |
| Pittsfield MA | 14 |
| Pocatello ID | 10 |
| Portland-South Portland ME | 12 |
| Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton OR-WA | 10 |
| Port St Lucie-Fort Pierce FL | 20 |
| Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown NY | 23 |
| Prescott AZ | 13 |
| Providence-New Bedford-Fall River RI-MA | 13 |
| Provo-Orem UT | 7 |
| Pueblo CO | 9 |
| Punta Gorda FL | 11 |
| Racine WI | 12 |
| Raleigh-Cary NC | 10 |
| Rapid City SD | 11 |
| Reading PA | 14 |
| Redding CA | 15 |
| Reno-Sparks NV | 12 |
| Richmond VA | 14 |
| Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA | 15 |
| Roanoke VA | 13 |
| Rochester MN | 8 |
| Rochester NY | 14 |
| Rockford IL | 13 |
| Rocky Mount NC | 8 |
| Rome GA | 12 |
| Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville CA | 14 |
| Saginaw-Saginaw Township North MI | 8 |
| St Cloud MN | 6 |
| St George UT | 8 |
| St Joseph MO-KS | 8 |
| St Louis MO-IL | 12 |
| Salem OR | 6 |
| Salinas CA | 16 |
| Salisbury MD | 14 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 7 |
| San Angelo TX | 7 |
| San Antonio TX | 9 |
| San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos CA | 12 |
| Sandusky OH | 4 |
| San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont CA | 10 |
| San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CA | 12 |
| San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles CA | 19 |
| Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta CA | 13 |
| Santa Cruz-Watsonville CA | 14 |
| Santa Fe NM | 11 |
| Santa Rosa-Petaluma CA | 12 |
| Savannah GA | 16 |
| Scranton--Wilkes-Barre PA | 14 |
| Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA | 9 |
| Vero Beach FL | 17 |
| Sheboygan WI | 11 |
| Sherman-Denison TX | 10 |
| Shreveport-Bossier City LA | 14 |
| Sioux City IA-NE-SD | 9 |
| Sioux Falls SD | 9 |
| South Bend-Mishawaka IN-MI | 8 |
| Spartanburg SC | 11 |
| Spokane WA | 7 |
| Springfield IL | 6 |
| Springfield MA | 12 |
| Springfield MO | 9 |
| Springfield OH | 7 |
| State College PA | 18 |
| Stockton CA | 14 |
| Sumter SC | 11 |
| Syracuse NY | 15 |
| Tallahassee FL | 14 |
| Tampa-St Petersburg-Clearwater FL | 10 |
| Terre Haute IN | 8 |
| Texarkana TX-Texarkana AR | 10 |
| Toledo OH | 11 |
| Topeka KS | 8 |
| Trenton-Ewing NJ | 20 |
| Tucson AZ | 13 |
| Tulsa OK | 10 |
| Tuscaloosa AL | 5 |
| Tyler TX | 11 |
| Utica-Rome NY | 14 |
| Valdosta GA | 14 |
| Vallejo-Fairfield CA | 12 |
| Victoria TX | 7 |
| Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton NJ | 11 |
| Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News VA-NC | 13 |
| Visalia-Porterville CA | 21 |
| Waco TX | 12 |
| Warner Robins GA | 13 |
| Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV | 17 |
| Waterloo-Cedar Falls IA | 12 |
| Wausau WI | 7 |
| Weirton-Steubenville WV-OH | 9 |
| Wenatchee WA | 1 |
| Wheeling WV-OH | 8 |
| Wichita KS | 15 |
| Wichita Falls TX | 12 |
| Williamsport PA | 26 |
| Wilmington NC | 9 |
| Winchester VA-WV | 15 |
| Winston-Salem NC | 9 |
| Worcester MA | 14 |
| Yakima WA | 6 |
| York-Hanover PA | 17 |
| Youngstown-Warren-Boardman OH-PA | 13 |
| Yuba City-Marysville CA | 14 |
| Yuma AZ | 13 |
Figure 2: Distribution of Time to Plan Across MSAs For Project with Standardized Characteristics
| Interval | Percent of Projects | Percent of the Total Cost of All Projects |
|---|---|---|
| 0 to 1 months | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1 to 2 months | 0.03 | 0.28 |
| 2 to 3 months | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 3 to 4 months | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 4 to 5 months | 0.23 | 1.39 |
| 5 to 6 months | 0.24 | 2.79 |
| 6 to 7 months | 1.92 | 5.57 |
| 7 to 8 months | 4.35 | 6.69 |
| 8 to 9 months | 3.10 | 11.42 |
| 9 to 10 months | 11.18 | 15.04 |
| 10 to 11 months | 16.46 | 12.26 |
| 11 to 12 months | 8.86 | 10.03 |
| 12 to 13 months | 9.46 | 8.36 |
| 13 to 14 months | 7.05 | 7.52 |
| 14 to 15 months | 8.17 | 5.29 |
| 15 to 16 months | 8.82 | 3.90 |
| 16 to 17 months | 12.22 | 2.23 |
| 17 to 18 months | 6.54 | 3.06 |
| 18 to 19 months | 0.12 | 0.84 |
| 19 to 20 months | 0.47 | 1.39 |
| 20 to 21 months | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| 21 to 22 months | 0.05 | 0.28 |
| 22 to 23 months | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| 23 to 24 months | 0.11 | 0.84 |
Figure 3: Estimated Plan-Year Effects Baseline Regression
| Year Planned | Estimated Time to Plan | Lower Bound of 95 Percent Confidence Interval | Upper Bound of 95 Percent Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 13.4 | 12.1 | 14.6 |
| 2000 | 12.3 | 11.1 | 13.4 |
| 2001 | 13.7 | 12.5 | 14.9 |
| 2002 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 14.4 |
| 2003 | 13.2 | 12.0 | 14.4 |
| 2004 | 14.0 | 12.8 | 15.2 |
| 2005 | 14.8 | 13.6 | 16.0 |
| 2006 | 15.1 | 13.9 | 16.3 |
| 2007 | 14.8 | 13.6 | 15.9 |
| 2008 | 16.0 | 14.9 | 17.2 |
| 2009 | 15.5 | 14.2 | 16.8 |
| 2010 | 16.6 | 15.3 | 17.9 |
Figure 4: Estimated Plan-Year Effects by Building Type - Office
| Year Planned | Estimated Time to Plan | Lower Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval | Upper Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 13.6 |
| 2000 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 13.4 |
| 2001 | 14.0 | 12.3 | 15.8 |
| 2002 | 13.3 | 11.8 | 14.8 |
| 2003 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 15.6 |
| 2004 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 15.2 |
| 2005 | 15.9 | 14.3 | 17.4 |
| 2006 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 16.3 |
| 2007 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 16.1 |
| 2008 | 15.7 | 14.2 | 17.3 |
| 2009 | 15.5 | 13.5 | 17.5 |
| 2010 | 15.9 | 14.0 | 17.8 |
Figure 4: Estimated Plan-Year Effects by Building Type - Hotel
| Year Planned | Estimated Time to Plan | Lower Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval | Upper Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 13.7 |
| 2000 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 14.8 |
| 2001 | 13.1 | 10.5 | 15.7 |
| 2002 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 14.6 |
| 2003 | 15.1 | 12.6 | 17.7 |
| 2004 | 14.1 | 11.7 | 16.6 |
| 2005 | 18.1 | 15.5 | 20.7 |
| 2006 | 18.6 | 16.4 | 20.9 |
| 2007 | 15.1 | 13.3 | 16.9 |
| 2008 | 16.5 | 14.7 | 18.3 |
| 2009 | 18.8 | 16.4 | 21.3 |
| 2010 | 18.1 | 15.5 | 20.8 |
Figure 4: Estimated Plan-Year Effects by Building Type - Retail
| Year Planned | Estimated Time to Plan | Lower Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval | Upper Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 14.3 | 12.4 | 16.2 |
| 2000 | 13.0 | 11.1 | 14.9 |
| 2001 | 14.1 | 12.4 | 15.9 |
| 2002 | 12.9 | 11.5 | 14.3 |
| 2003 | 14.2 | 12.8 | 15.6 |
| 2004 | 14.5 | 13.2 | 15.9 |
| 2005 | 16.7 | 15.1 | 18.2 |
| 2006 | 14.9 | 13.5 | 16.3 |
| 2007 | 15.2 | 13.6 | 16.7 |
| 2008 | 17.0 | 15.5 | 18.5 |
| 2009 | 15.1 | 13.1 | 17.1 |
| 2010 | 16.8 | 15.0 | 18.6 |
Figure 4: Estimated Plan-Year Effects by Building Type - Warehouse
| Year Planned | Estimated Time to Plan | Lower Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval | Upper Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 13.0 |
| 2000 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 13.1 |
| 2001 | 12.2 | 10.3 | 14.0 |
| 2002 | 12.1 | 10.4 | 13.7 |
| 2003 | 14.8 | 13.0 | 16.5 |
| 2004 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 17.0 |
| 2005 | 16.0 | 14.1 | 17.9 |
| 2006 | 15.2 | 13.6 | 16.8 |
| 2007 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 15.6 |
| 2008 | 15.7 | 14.1 | 17.3 |
| 2009 | 15.9 | 13.6 | 18.3 |
| 2010 | 15.0 | 13.1 | 17.0 |
Figure 5: Estimated Plan-Year Effects by MSA Population Group - Top 25
| Year Planned | Estimated Time to Plan | Lower Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval | Upper Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 13.6 |
| 2000 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 13.4 |
| 2001 | 14.0 | 12.3 | 15.8 |
| 2002 | 13.3 | 11.8 | 14.8 |
| 2003 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 15.6 |
| 2004 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 15.2 |
| 2005 | 15.9 | 14.3 | 17.4 |
| 2006 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 16.3 |
| 2007 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 16.1 |
| 2008 | 15.7 | 14.2 | 17.3 |
| 2009 | 15.5 | 13.5 | 17.5 |
| 2010 | 15.9 | 14.0 | 17.8 |
Figure 5: Estimated Plan-Year Effects by MSA Population Group - First Quartile (Excluding top 25)
| Year Planned | Estimated Time to Plan | Lower Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval | Upper Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 11.8 | 10.0 | 13.7 |
| 2000 | 11.9 | 10.0 | 13.8 |
| 2001 | 13.8 | 12.0 | 15.7 |
| 2002 | 13.9 | 12.1 | 15.7 |
| 2003 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 15.9 |
| 2004 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 15.2 |
| 2005 | 15.6 | 14.0 | 17.3 |
| 2006 | 13.9 | 12.2 | 15.6 |
| 2007 | 14.1 | 12.5 | 15.7 |
| 2008 | 14.8 | 13.1 | 16.5 |
| 2009 | 14.9 | 13.0 | 16.8 |
| 2010 | 16.1 | 14.2 | 18.0 |
Figure 5: Estimated Plan-Year Effects by MSA Population Group - Second Quartile
| Year Planned | Estimated Time to Plan | Lower Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval | Upper Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 12.7 | 10.2 | 15.2 |
| 2000 | 12.7 | 10.2 | 15.1 |
| 2001 | 13.9 | 11.6 | 16.1 |
| 2002 | 16.2 | 14.1 | 18.4 |
| 2003 | 14.3 | 12.4 | 16.3 |
| 2004 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 15.2 |
| 2005 | 15.6 | 13.7 | 17.5 |
| 2006 | 15.2 | 13.0 | 17.5 |
| 2007 | 13.9 | 11.9 | 16.0 |
| 2008 | 14.4 | 12.4 | 16.3 |
| 2009 | 15.3 | 13.1 | 17.4 |
| 2010 | 15.8 | 13.7 | 17.9 |
Figure 5: Estimated Plan-Year Effects by MSA Population Group - Third and Fourth Quartiles
| Year Planned | Estimated Time to Plan | Lower Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval | Upper Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 12.3 |
| 2000 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 14.6 |
| 2001 | 13.3 | 10.7 | 16.0 |
| 2002 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 14.8 |
| 2003 | 15.1 | 12.8 | 17.3 |
| 2004 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 15.2 |
| 2005 | 15.5 | 13.0 | 18.1 |
| 2006 | 14.8 | 12.5 | 17.0 |
| 2007 | 14.4 | 12.3 | 16.4 |
| 2008 | 14.1 | 11.7 | 16.5 |
| 2009 | 15.0 | 12.3 | 17.8 |
| 2010 | 14.5 | 12.0 | 17.0 |
Figure 6: Estimated Plan-Year Effects by Census Division - Pacific
| Year Planned | Estimated Time to Plan | Lower Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval | Upper Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 13.1 |
| 2000 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 12.8 |
| 2001 | 13.7 | 11.6 | 15.9 |
| 2002 | 13.8 | 11.5 | 16.0 |
| 2003 | 14.6 | 12.3 | 16.9 |
| 2004 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 15.2 |
| 2005 | 15.5 | 13.5 | 17.4 |
| 2006 | 18.3 | 16.0 | 20.7 |
| 2007 | 17.0 | 15.0 | 19.0 |
| 2008 | 18.4 | 16.2 | 20.6 |
| 2009 | 18.9 | 16.1 | 21.7 |
| 2010 | 19.1 | 16.6 | 21.7 |
Figure 6: Estimated Plan-Year Effects by Census Division - West South Central
| Year Planned | Estimated Time to Plan | Lower Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval | Upper Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 15.6 | 13.0 | 18.1 |
| 2000 | 13.9 | 11.5 | 16.3 |
| 2001 | 16.3 | 14.0 | 18.6 |
| 2002 | 14.5 | 12.4 | 16.7 |
| 2003 | 12.9 | 10.9 | 15.0 |
| 2004 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 15.2 |
| 2005 | 13.2 | 11.3 | 15.0 |
| 2006 | 14.4 | 12.5 | 16.3 |
| 2007 | 13.3 | 11.5 | 15.2 |
| 2008 | 14.7 | 12.8 | 16.7 |
| 2009 | 15.5 | 13.5 | 17.6 |
| 2010 | 15.8 | 13.8 | 17.8 |
Figure 6: Estimated Plan-Year Effects by Census Division - New England
| Year Planned | Estimated Time to Plan | Lower Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval | Upper Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 16.1 | 11.2 | 21.0 |
| 2000 | 12.7 | 9.9 | 15.5 |
| 2001 | 15.6 | 12.7 | 18.5 |
| 2002 | 13.2 | 10.8 | 15.5 |
| 2003 | 12.9 | 10.6 | 15.1 |
| 2004 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 15.2 |
| 2005 | 14.9 | 12.7 | 17.1 |
| 2006 | 16.1 | 13.8 | 18.3 |
| 2007 | 15.5 | 13.5 | 17.6 |
| 2008 | 16.8 | 14.4 | 19.1 |
| 2009 | 17.7 | 15.2 | 20.3 |
| 2010 | 17.8 | 15.1 | 20.5 |
Figure 6: Estimated Plan-Year Effects by Census Division - Mountain
| Year Planned | Estimated Time to Plan | Lower Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval | Upper Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 12.7 | 10.4 | 15.1 |
| 2000 | 12.2 | 10.3 | 14.2 |
| 2001 | 14.1 | 11.7 | 16.5 |
| 2002 | 13.4 | 11.2 | 15.5 |
| 2003 | 12.3 | 10.2 | 14.3 |
| 2004 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 15.2 |
| 2005 | 13.8 | 12.1 | 15.5 |
| 2006 | 15.6 | 13.8 | 17.5 |
| 2007 | 15.7 | 13.8 | 17.5 |
| 2008 | 17.5 | 15.5 | 19.6 |
| 2009 | 18.1 | 16.1 | 20.2 |
| 2010 | 17.6 | 15.2 | 19.9 |
Figure 6: Estimated Plan-Year Effects by Census Division - East North Central
| Year Planned | Estimated Time to Plan | Lower Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval | Upper Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 14.2 | 11.9 | 16.5 |
| 2000 | 12.1 | 10.2 | 14.1 |
| 2001 | 14.5 | 12.4 | 16.6 |
| 2002 | 12.8 | 11.0 | 14.6 |
| 2003 | 11.7 | 10.0 | 13.4 |
| 2004 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 15.2 |
| 2005 | 13.5 | 11.8 | 15.2 |
| 2006 | 13.8 | 12.1 | 15.5 |
| 2007 | 14.6 | 12.9 | 16.3 |
| 2008 | 15.7 | 13.9 | 17.5 |
| 2009 | 13.9 | 11.9 | 15.8 |
| 2010 | 14.4 | 12.3 | 16.4 |
Figure 6: Estimated Plan-Year Effects by Census Division - Middle Atlantic
| Year Planned | Estimated Time to Plan | Lower Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval | Upper Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 13.9 | 11.4 | 16.3 |
| 2000 | 13.1 | 10.7 | 15.5 |
| 2001 | 15.3 | 12.9 | 17.7 |
| 2002 | 14.8 | 12.2 | 17.4 |
| 2003 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 16.1 |
| 2004 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 15.2 |
| 2005 | 17.0 | 14.9 | 19.0 |
| 2006 | 18.0 | 16.0 | 20.1 |
| 2007 | 16.9 | 15.1 | 18.8 |
| 2008 | 18.2 | 16.3 | 20.1 |
| 2009 | 17.2 | 15.2 | 19.1 |
| 2010 | 18.5 | 16.2 | 20.8 |
Figure 6: Estimated Plan-Year Effects by Census Division - West North Central
| Year Planned | Estimated Time to Plan | Lower Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval | Upper Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 15.0 | 12.0 | 17.9 |
| 2000 | 12.8 | 10.7 | 15.0 |
| 2001 | 15.3 | 12.5 | 18.1 |
| 2002 | 13.2 | 11.0 | 15.4 |
| 2003 | 12.9 | 11.1 | 14.7 |
| 2004 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 15.2 |
| 2005 | 13.5 | 11.7 | 15.3 |
| 2006 | 15.5 | 13.1 | 18.0 |
| 2007 | 15.9 | 14.1 | 17.8 |
| 2008 | 17.8 | 15.5 | 20.1 |
| 2009 | 15.5 | 12.7 | 18.3 |
| 2010 | 16.5 | 14.2 | 18.8 |
Figure 6: Estimated Plan-Year Effects by Census Division - East South Central
| Year Planned | Estimated Time to Plan | Lower Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval | Upper Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 14.0 | 11.5 | 16.5 |
| 2000 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 13.1 |
| 2001 | 12.9 | 10.8 | 15.0 |
| 2002 | 13.1 | 11.0 | 15.2 |
| 2003 | 12.3 | 10.3 | 14.2 |
| 2004 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 15.2 |
| 2005 | 14.8 | 12.7 | 17.0 |
| 2006 | 15.5 | 13.7 | 17.3 |
| 2007 | 15.7 | 13.9 | 17.4 |
| 2008 | 16.1 | 14.3 | 17.9 |
| 2009 | 14.5 | 12.4 | 16.7 |
| 2010 | 15.7 | 13.5 | 17.9 |
Figure 6: Estimated Plan-Year Effects by Census Division - South Atlantic
| Year Planned | Estimated Time to Plan | Lower Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval | Upper Bound 95 Percent Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 13.6 |
| 2000 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 13.4 |
| 2001 | 14.0 | 12.3 | 15.8 |
| 2002 | 13.3 | 11.8 | 14.8 |
| 2003 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 15.6 |
| 2004 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 15.2 |
| 2005 | 15.9 | 14.3 | 17.4 |
| 2006 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 16.3 |
| 2007 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 16.1 |
| 2008 | 15.7 | 14.2 | 17.3 |
| 2009 | 15.5 | 13.5 | 17.5 |
| 2010 | 15.9 | 14.0 | 17.8 |
Figure 7: Distribution of Time to Plan - Percent of Projects
| Planning Duration (months) | Without Adjustment for Censoring (Light Bars) | Adjustment for Censoring Adjustment (Dark Bars) | Adjusted Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 0.5 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.91 | 0.01 | 0.92 |
| 1.5 to 2.5 | 2.03 | 0.02 | 2.05 |
| 2.5 to 3.5 | 3.08 | 0.03 | 3.11 |
| 3.5 to 4.5 | 4.30 | 0.03 | 4.33 |
| 4.5 to 5.5 | 5.38 | 0.06 | 5.45 |
| 5.5 to 6.5 | 6.27 | 0.07 | 6.35 |
| 6.5 to 7.5 | 6.49 | 0.07 | 6.56 |
| 7.5 to 8.5 | 6.40 | 0.10 | 6.49 |
| 8.5 to 9.5 | 5.85 | 0.09 | 5.94 |
| 9.5 to 10.5 | 5.21 | 0.11 | 5.32 |
| 10.5 to 11.5 | 4.39 | 0.12 | 4.51 |
| 11.5 to 12.5 | 3.84 | 0.12 | 3.96 |
| 12.5 to 13.5 | 3.30 | 0.13 | 3.42 |
| 13.5 to 14.5 | 2.87 | 0.15 | 3.02 |
| 14.5 to 15.5 | 2.47 | 0.17 | 2.64 |
| 15.5 to 16.5 | 2.19 | 0.16 | 2.35 |
| 16.5 to 17.5 | 1.93 | 0.19 | 2.12 |
| 17.5 to 18.5 | 1.65 | 0.16 | 1.81 |
| 18.5 to 19.5 | 1.46 | 0.20 | 1.66 |
| 19.5 to 20.5 | 1.32 | 0.21 | 1.53 |
| 20.5 to 21.5 | 1.14 | 0.21 | 1.35 |
| 21.5 to 22.5 | 1.05 | 0.26 | 1.31 |
| 22.5 to 23.5 | 0.94 | 0.21 | 1.14 |
| 23.5 to 24.5 | 0.82 | 0.24 | 1.06 |
| 24.5 to 25.5 | 0.77 | 0.27 | 1.04 |
| 25.5 to 26.5 | 0.72 | 0.25 | 0.97 |
| 26.5 to 27.5 | 0.61 | 0.27 | 0.89 |
| 27.5 to 28.5 | 0.57 | 0.23 | 0.81 |
| 28.5 to 29.5 | 0.49 | 0.28 | 0.77 |
| 29.5 to 30.5 | 0.45 | 0.29 | 0.74 |
| 30.5 to 31.5 | 0.44 | 0.32 | 0.77 |
| 31.5 to 32.5 | 0.38 | 0.26 | 0.64 |
| 32.5 to 33.5 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.65 |
| 33.5 to 34.5 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.65 |
| 34.5 to 35.5 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| 35.5 to 36.5 | 0.25 | 0.29 | 0.53 |
| 36.5 to 37.5 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.60 |
| 37.5 to 38.5 | 0.22 | 0.30 | 0.52 |
| 38.5 to 39.5 | 0.21 | 0.29 | 0.51 |
| 39.5 to 40.5 | 0.19 | 0.30 | 0.48 |
| 40.5 to 41.5 | 0.18 | 0.29 | 0.47 |
| 41.5 to 42.5 | 0.13 | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| 42.5 to 43.5 | 0.14 | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| 43.5 to 44.5 | 0.14 | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| 44.5 to 45.5 | 0.13 | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| 45.5 to 46.5 | 0.12 | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| 46.5 to 47.5 | 0.11 | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| 47.5 to 48.5 | 0.10 | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| 48.5 to 49.5 | 0.10 | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| 49.5 to 50.5 | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| 50.5 to 51.5 | 0.08 | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| 51.5 to 52.5 | 0.09 | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| 52.5 to 53.5 | 0.08 | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| 53.5 to 54.5 | 0.07 | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| 54.5 to 55.5 | 0.05 | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| 55.5 to 56.5 | 0.06 | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| 56.5 to 57.5 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| 57.5 to 58.5 | 0.04 | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| 58.5 to 59.5 | 0.03 | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| 59.5 or more | 0.69 | 2.66 | 3.34 |
Figure 7: Distribution of Time to Plan - Percent of Total Cost
| Planning Duration (months) | Without Adjustment for Censoring (Light Bars) | Adjustment for Censoring Adjustment (Dark Bars) | Adjusted Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 0.5 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| 1.5 to 2.5 | 1.00 | 0.01 | 1.02 |
| 2.5 to 3.5 | 1.60 | 0.01 | 1.61 |
| 3.5 to 4.5 | 2.43 | 0.04 | 2.46 |
| 4.5 to 5.5 | 3.13 | 0.04 | 3.18 |
| 5.5 to 6.5 | 3.56 | 0.07 | 3.62 |
| 6.5 to 7.5 | 4.24 | 0.08 | 4.32 |
| 7.5 to 8.5 | 4.18 | 0.05 | 4.24 |
| 8.5 to 9.5 | 4.31 | 0.06 | 4.37 |
| 9.5 to 10.5 | 3.87 | 0.07 | 3.94 |
| 10.5 to 11.5 | 3.48 | 0.07 | 3.55 |
| 11.5 to 12.5 | 3.34 | 0.05 | 3.39 |
| 12.5 to 13.5 | 3.11 | 0.07 | 3.17 |
| 13.5 to 14.5 | 2.85 | 0.09 | 2.94 |
| 14.5 to 15.5 | 2.42 | 0.11 | 2.53 |
| 15.5 to 16.5 | 2.18 | 0.11 | 2.29 |
| 16.5 to 17.5 | 1.99 | 0.13 | 2.12 |
| 17.5 to 18.5 | 1.69 | 0.06 | 1.75 |
| 18.5 to 19.5 | 2.23 | 0.16 | 2.39 |
| 19.5 to 20.5 | 1.46 | 0.12 | 1.58 |
| 20.5 to 21.5 | 1.64 | 0.14 | 1.78 |
| 21.5 to 22.5 | 1.40 | 0.35 | 1.75 |
| 22.5 to 23.5 | 1.11 | 0.15 | 1.26 |
| 23.5 to 24.5 | 1.05 | 0.17 | 1.22 |
| 24.5 to 25.5 | 1.20 | 0.17 | 1.36 |
| 25.5 to 26.5 | 0.97 | 0.18 | 1.15 |
| 26.5 to 27.5 | 0.97 | 0.28 | 1.25 |
| 27.5 to 28.5 | 0.73 | 0.51 | 1.25 |
| 28.5 to 29.5 | 0.64 | 0.25 | 0.89 |
| 29.5 to 30.5 | 0.54 | 0.27 | 0.81 |
| 30.5 to 31.5 | 0.56 | 0.32 | 0.87 |
| 31.5 to 32.5 | 0.50 | 0.22 | 0.72 |
| 32.5 to 33.5 | 0.46 | 0.23 | 0.68 |
| 33.5 to 34.5 | 0.64 | 0.19 | 0.84 |
| 34.5 to 35.5 | 0.44 | 0.25 | 0.69 |
| 35.5 to 36.5 | 0.51 | 0.26 | 0.77 |
| 36.5 to 37.5 | 0.44 | 0.26 | 0.71 |
| 37.5 to 38.5 | 0.32 | 0.24 | 0.55 |
| 38.5 to 39.5 | 0.52 | 0.33 | 0.85 |
| 39.5 to 40.5 | 0.17 | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| 40.5 to 41.5 | 0.44 | 0.32 | 0.76 |
| 41.5 to 42.5 | 0.13 | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| 42.5 to 43.5 | 0.41 | 0.49 | 0.91 |
| 43.5 to 44.5 | 0.21 | 0.31 | 0.53 |
| 44.5 to 45.5 | 0.18 | 0.36 | 0.54 |
| 45.5 to 46.5 | 0.18 | 0.39 | 0.57 |
| 46.5 to 47.5 | 0.25 | 0.44 | 0.69 |
| 47.5 to 48.5 | 0.31 | 0.35 | 0.66 |
| 48.5 to 49.5 | 0.14 | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| 49.5 to 50.5 | 0.25 | 0.40 | 0.66 |
| 50.5 to 51.5 | 0.14 | 0.43 | 0.56 |
| 51.5 to 52.5 | 0.14 | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| 52.5 to 53.5 | 0.15 | 0.48 | 0.63 |
| 53.5 to 54.5 | 0.19 | 0.43 | 0.62 |
| 54.5 to 55.5 | 0.09 | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| 55.5 to 56.5 | 0.24 | 0.35 | 0.59 |
| 56.5 to 57.5 | 0.06 | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| 57.5 to 58.5 | 0.07 | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| 58.5 to 59.5 | 0.08 | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| 59.5 or more | 3.50 | 10.52 | 14.02 |
Figure 8: Change in Planning Lag versus Wharton Proxy by Census Division - Place Weighted
| Census Division | Change in Time to Plan in months (y-axis) | Fitted Line | Proxy for change in Review and Approval Times (x-axis) |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England | 1.7 | 2.8 | 0.4 |
| Middle Atlantic | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| East North Central | 0.2 | 3.3 | 0.4 |
| West North Central | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| South Atlantic | 4.2 | 5.5 | 0.5 |
| East South Central | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| West South Central | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| Mountain | 4.8 | 4.3 | 0.5 |
| Pacific | 8.2 | 5.7 | 0.5 |
Figure 8: Change in Planning Lag versus Wharton Proxy by Census Division - Project Weighted
| Census Division | Change in Time to Plan in months (y-axis) | Fitted Line | Proxy for change in Review and Approval Times (x-axis) |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England | 1.7 | 3.9 | 0.6 |
| Middle Atlantic | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.2 |
| ENC | 0.2 | 3.0 | 0.4 |
| WNC | 1.5 | 2.4 | 0.3 |
| South Atlantic | 4.2 | 3.6 | 0.5 |
| ESC | 1.7 | 2.2 | 0.2 |
| WSC | 0.2 | 2.9 | 0.4 |
| Mountain | 4.8 | 3.5 | 0.5 |
| Pacific | 8.2 | 3.4 | 0.5 |
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