|
| 1. Introduction | |
| 2. Question Text, Variable Names, & Responses |
Robert B. Avery, Gregory E. Elliehausen, and Arthur
B. Kennickell, "Changes in Consumer Installment Debt: Evidence from
the 1983 and 1986 Surveys of Consumer Finances," ,Federal Reserve
Bulletin, Vol. 73, No. 10 (October 1987), pp. 761-778.
Robert B. Avery and Arthur B. Kennickell, "Savings and Wealth:
Evidence from the 1986 Survey of Consumer Finances," presented at
the May 1988 NBER Conference on Research in Income and Wealth.
Robert B. Avery, Gregory E. Elliehausen, Glenn B. Canner, and Thomas
A. Gustafson, "1983 Survey of Consumer Finances," Federal Reserve
Bulletin, 70 (September 1984): pp. 679-92.
______________________ , "1983 Survey of Consumer Finances: A Second
Report," Federal Reserve Bulletin, 70 (December 1984):
pp. 857-868.
Robert B. Avery and Gregory E. Elliehausen, 1983 Survey of Consumer
Finances: Technical Manual and Codebook, Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System, 1985.
______________________ , "Financial Characteristics of High-Income
Families," Federal Reserve Bulletin, 72 (March 1986): pp. 163-77.
Robert B. Avery, Gregory E. Elliehausen, and Arthur B. Kennickell,
"Measuring Wealth with Survey Data: An Evaluation of the 1983 Survey
of Consumer Finances," Review of Income and Wealth, December 1988.
The data from the 1983 and 1986 SCF waves and the supplemental
pension survey are available on request from the National Technical
Information Service, 5283 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161
(telephone 703-487-4600).
THE 1983 SURVEY OF CONSUMER FINANCES
The 1983 SCF was conducted through in-person household
interviews between February and August 1983. Complete details on the
survey can be found in the 1983 Survey of Consumer Finances: Technical
Manual and Codebook. Briefly, the survey -- sponsored jointly by The
Federal Reserve Board; the Department of Health and Human Services;
the Department of the Treasury, Office of Tax Analysis; the Federal
Trade Commission; the Department of Labor; the Office of the
Comptroller of the Currency; and the Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation -- was conducted by the Survey Research Center[1]. The
sample group was drawn from a dual frame: 5,396 households were
selected for interviewing from a standard area-probability frame and
5,000 returns of high-income taxpayers were selected by the Statistics
of Income Division (SOI) of the Internal Revenue Service. Of the
households selected for the area-probability sample, 3,824 (71
percent) ultimately participated; this figure is somewhat lower than
expected due to a higher than expected rate of vacant dwellings[2]. At
first, the SOI sample members were approached indirectly. The
Comptroller of the Currency sent introductory letters requesting
participation in the study to a sample of high-income 1980 taxpayers
selected by SOI and residing in the same sampling areas used for the
area probability sample[3]. Of the 459 households that subsequently
agreed to participate, 438 ultimately completed interviews. While the
completion rate in the SOI sample is not high, it appears to be not
radically out of line with response rates to previous SOI mail surveys.
Within each survey household, the "economically dominant"
(primary) family (or individual) was interviewed[4]. The same
questionnaire was used to interview respondents in both the area-
probability and high-income samples, and field interviewers were not
told which households were part of the high-income sample. The length
of the interview averaged 74 minutes for the area- probability sample
and 87 minutes for the high-income sample. Information was collected
(at the household level) on the following items:
Financial Assets. The amount, type, and source of each
household checking, savings, and money market account. Household
holdings of publicly traded stock, bonds, certificates of deposit,
mutual funds, trusts, and notes or land contracts. Face and cash
value of life insurance.
Tangible Assets. The value and purchase terms of the
household's principal residence, other real estate, and automobiles.
Limited data on the value and characteristics of businesses in which a
member of the household had both a management and equity interest.
Pension Assets. I.R.A., Keogh, thrift, profit sharing, 401K, and
other tax-deferred account holdings. Estimates of the present value
and other information on each current or expected pension, including
Social Security, of the household head and spouse.
Household Debts. The purpose, amount outstanding, source, and
terms of each household debt, including home mortgages and home equity
loans, lines of credit, credit cards, and other consumer loans.
Demographic Data. Education, employment and marital history, age,
race, and earnings for the head and spouse of each household. A
detailed breakdown of income by source.
Attitudes and Financial Decision Making. Attitudes toward saving and
credit use. Data on the use of financial services, methods of
choosing among competing sources, and the number and proximity of the
respondent's financial institutions.
A unique and powerful feature of the 1983 SCF is the range of
information on pensions and retirement. In addition to data gathered
from respondents (and their spouses) about their expected dates of
retirement and their expected benefits from Social Security and
pensions, the names of their employers were also obtained. Using this
information, the pension plans were identified, and detailed
information on the plans was drawn from the Summary Plan Descriptions
filed with the Department of Labor. Publicly available software has
been developed to translate this complex information into more
digestible figures, such as present values of benefits and effects of
various decisions (such as early retirement) on pension benefits.
This offers the opportunity to compare respondents' perceptions of
their pension benefits and coverage with the "reality" as provided by
the firms[5].
SURVEY DESIGN
The 1986 SCF -- sponsored by the Federal Reserve Board, the
Department of Health and Human Services, the Office of the Comptroller
of the Currency, and the General Accounting Office -- was a more
limited 27-minute re-interview survey with respondents to the 1983
SCF[6]. When 1983 couples divorced or separated, the survey followed
both parties. However, other members who left the household, such as
young adults were not followed. A total of 2,822 interviews were
completed, by telephone, between June and September 1986. As in 1983,
the unit of observation was the family.
The 1986 SCF was designed primarily to update essential
information in the 1983 SCF -- the household balance sheet and
employment data. Sufficient information was collected that household
net worth could be estimated, although more aggregated asset and debt
categories were used (roughly 25 categories versus 85 in 1983).
Limited information was also solicited on the disposition of assets in
divorce or upon death of a spouse, purchases and sales of houses, and
major expenditures for health, durables, charity, and education.
Substantial new information was collected on gifts made or received by
the household and the recipient or source of those gifts. In a related
vein, data were gathered on the sharing of living quarters over the
three-year period. In addition, income, marital, and employment
history over the intervening three-year period was gathered.
1986 SAMPLE WEIGHTS
Because observations for the 1983 SCF were drawn from two
different sampling frames, and because the 1986 survey is a
re-interview with only a portion of the 1983 sample, construction of
appropriate sample weights is a particularly important issue. Weights
for the 1983 survey were constructed in two phases. Relative weights
for the area-probability sample were constructed to compensate for
differential non-response rates across the survey's 75 primary
sampling units. Those weights were further post-stratified by region
and degree of urbanization to reflect population estimates from the
March 1983 Current Population Survey (CPS).
Construction of weights for the full 1983 sample, including
both the area-probability and high-income sub-samples, posed a more
difficult problem. Full information on the high-income sampling
procedure is not available, nor is the information collected from
survey respondents sufficient to construct a fully accurate measure of
the income concepts that the IRS likely used in drawing the sample.
Additional complications stem from the fact that the high-income
observations were selected from a 1980 sampling frame, but reported
data as of 1983, and the fact that the reporting basis for tax files
(individuals or married couples) is not always the same as the survey
(families).
These problems led to the design of 1983 sampling weights for
the high-income sample (and area-probability observations with income
above a certain level) using a post-stratification scheme based on
control totals for an "extended" income measure (roughly, equal to
IRS-defined adjusted gross income plus excluded realized capital
gains) constructed from the 1982 Tax Model File (TMF) of the IRS[7].
Weights were determined so that the weighted number of survey
observations for six cells with extended income above $80,000 matched
TMF control totals. The original weights of the area-probability
observations with income below $80,000 were adjusted so that the
weighted number of SCF households equaled the population estimated
from the CPS. High-income sample observations with income below
$80,000 were arbitrarily assigned the same weight as observations in
the $80,000 to $90,000 group.
Construction of the 1986 sample weights proved even more
problematic. As we argue later, there are at least two different
interpretations of the 1986 sample relevant for analysis. Thus, at
least two different 1986 weights are necessary. For many purposes, it
is useful to view the 1986 sample as a sub-sample of the 1983 survey.
However, it is also possible to view the 1986 sample as a new
cross-section, representative of the structure of the 1986 household
population. Accordingly, we have constructed two sampling weights for
the 1986 sample. The first weight -- which we term the "1983/86
weight" -- was designed to allow the sample of households reached in
1986 to represent the entire 1983 sample. The second 1986 sample
weight -- deemed the "1986 weight" -- may be used to represent the
1986 household population.
As the basis for both weights, the
original 1983 weights were adjusted for attrition using a multi-stage
probability model estimated with a variety of 1983 financial,
demographic and other characteristics; the 1983 weight was multiplied
by the inverse of the estimated probability of being in the 1986
sample. As can be seen in table 1, the 1986 sample is clearly not a
random sample from the 1983 survey.
Each weight was further adjusted for changes in marital status
and for deviations from externally observed measures of the population
structure. At the second stage of calculation, for the 1983/86
weight, the base weight was halved for all households that separated
or divorced; for the 1986 weight, households married since the 1983
survey received half of the base weight[8]. Although the sample follows
separations and divorces of primary family heads and spouses, these
second-stage adjustments do not fully reflect external measures of the
structure of the population. Finally, to compensate for this
difference, the weights were post-stratified to age, marital status
(including the sex of single respondents), and homeownership cells[9].
As discussed below, this adjustment was performed in either of two
ways, by using information from 1983 and 1986 independently, or by
exploiting the information in the change in the population
structure between the two years.
Sample Attrition
Weighted Percent of Weighted
percent of 1983 group percent of
1983 sample in 1986 1986 sample
Age (head)
under 25 8.0 56.6 8.6
25 to 34 22.6 62.8 23.7
35 to 44 19.5 68.9 20.8
45 to 54 15.5 67.7 14.4
55 to 64 15.0 69.3 14.5
65 or more 19.4 56.6 18.0
Marital Status
married 60.6 67.8 64.3
sep/divorced male 4.9 56.9 4.4
sep/divorced female 10.7 66.5 11.2
widowed male 1.9 46.2 1.3
widowed female 9.5 58.0 8.1
never married male 6.3 57.4 5.7
never married female 6.1 49.4 5.0
Race
Caucasian 82.3 67.5 82.3
Nonwhite or Hispanic 17.7 47.7 17.7
Family Income (1982)
less than $10,000 24.0 46.5 21.2
$10,000 to $19,999 26.8 62.1 28.7
$20,000 to $29,999 19.3 69.8 19.7
$30,000 to $49,999 19.7 75.2 20.1
$50,000 to $99,999 8.2 77.0 8.3
$100,000 or more 2.0 80.0 2.1
Family Net Worth
less than $100,000 76.6 61.2 77.4
$100,000 to $249,999 14.7 72.0 13.5
$250,000 to $999,999 7.1 75.0 7.7
$1,000,000 to $2,499,999 1.2 77.2 1.1
$2,500,000 or more 0.5 71.4 0.4
Homeownership
homeowners 63.4 70.9 64.4
other 36.6 52.1 35.6
Education of the head
0 to 8 grades 14.5 55.1 14.2
9 to 12 grades 44.9 61.6 45.6
some college 17.7 66.4 17.4
college graduate 22.9 72.7 22.8
Labor force participation
Married
only head working 19.0 70.6 20.6
only spouse working 4.0 56.9 3.9
head & spouse working 27.8 73.1 31.1
neither working 9.8 52.0 8.7
Single
working 22.4 65.1 21.5
not working 17.0 49.1 14.2
Sample
area-probability 98.2 63.7 98.1
high-income 1.8 82.9 1.9
Total 100.0 64.0 100.0
*Groups are defined by their 1983 status.
For the 1986 weight, there are two qualifications to these
post-stratification schemes. First, the 1983 SCF interviewed only
independent households. However, because at any given time a
significant proportion of younger adults are in school or the
military, or live with their parents, those younger people living
independently at the time of the 1983 SCF are unlikely to represent
the population of households of their cohort three years later.
Therefore, the sample has not been weighted to represent the
population of households with heads aged 24 and under in 1986.
Households that fell into that group in 1986 were assigned weights
adjusted for attrition and marital status change, but were not
post-stratified to 1986 control totals. For this reason, we strongly
recommend that only those households aged 25 or more in 1986 be used
for analysis of changes[10]. Second, some individuals who were heads of
households (or spouses of heads) in 1983 moved into living
arrangements where in 1986 they would no longer have been defined as a
head or spouse using SRC definitions (such as young adults moving back
to their parents' home). In these circumstances, the
post-stratification scheme used the age, sex, and marital status of
the 1986 household member who would have been identified as the head,
instead of the characteristics of the 1983 respondent.W8386 = W83 /2 if a couple has been divorced or = W83 otherwise;or summarize the relationship between W83 and W8386 by
W8386 = W83 * phi(1) ; and W86 = W8386 /2 if a single person has married outside the sample, W86 = W8386 * 2 if a couple has been divorced, or W86 = W8386 otherwise;or summarize the relationship of W8386 to W86 for each individual by
W86 = W8386 * phi(2) .First we relax the assumption of no sample attrition between 1983 and 1986[12]. Let the inverse of the true probability of each household's remaining in the sample be given by b. A part of b can be estimated using the information on the distribution of characteristics observed in the 1983 sample, and a part, say G, is related to unobservable characteristics. Let this relationship be summarized as
b = a * GIn this case, the relationships among the weights are summarized by
W8386 = W83 * phi(1) * a * G and W86 = W8386 * phi(2) * a * G .The quantities W83, phi(1), phi(2), and a are all directly estimable. One way to estimate the missing parameter G is to use information available about the structure of the population in 1983 and 1986 to estimate G iteratively in the following way. Let the population in 1983 and in 1986 be divided into s = 1,...,n cells and let p83(s) and p86(s) be the true population counts for cell s. Define W8386(i), W86(i) and G(i) as the ith-round estimates of W8386, W83 and G, respectively. Let sigma8386(i)(s) be a scaling factor such that
sigma8386(i)(s) *
sum(over W8386 in cell s) W8386(i) = p83(s) ;
similarly, let sigma86(i) be defined by
sigma86(i)(s) *
sum(over W86 in cell s) W86(i) = p86(s) ;
Dropping the cell-specific notation for simplicity, the iterations are
defined as follows[13]:
W8386(0) = W83*phi(1)*a*sigma8386(0)
W86(0) = W8386(0)*phi(2)*a*sigma86(0)
W8386(1) = W8386(0)*phi(1)*a*sigma8386(1)
W86(1) = W8386(1)*phi(2)*a*sigma86(1)
. .
. .
. .
W8386(T) = W8386(T)*phi(1)*a*sigma8386(T)
W86(T) = W8386(T)*phi(2)*a*sigma86(T)
Implicitly, the final estimate of G for each case is given by
G(T) = {product(i=0 to T) sigma8386(i)} *
{product(i=0 to T) sigma86(i)}
In terms of this notation, the difference between the sets of
weights given in this codebook that use 1983 and 1986 data
independently for post-stratification (C1013, C1015 and C1016) and the
weights that use both years of data jointly (C1014, C1017 and C1018)
is that the former uses only the first round of this iterative process
while the latter is based on the 30th iteration (change is minimal
after the 10th iteration). As discussed further below, however, this
difference can also be interpreted in terms of the comparability of
the household universes in each year.
( Pr2(found), for 1983 single males, found;
|
| Pr3(found), for 1983 single female, found;
|
a = Pr1(in 1st |
stage sample) * { Pr4(both found), for 1983 married couples,
| both found; or
|
| (1-Pr4(both found))*Pr5(one found), for
( 1983 married couples, one found.
All of these probability models were estimated as weighted
probits using nearly the same set of independent variables drawn
entirely from the 1983 data. These variables include: a quadratic
spline on the age of the 1983 head of household, dummies for years of
education, indicators of income (logarithm of total family income,
dummy for capital income, logarithm of capital income, interactions of
age of the head of the household with the logarithms of total family
income and capital income), indicators of wealth (logarithm of net
wealth, dummy for home ownership, dummy for mortgage on the principal
residence, dummy for consumer debt and logarithm of consumer debt,
dummy for credit card debt, logarithm of paper assets), household
composition variables (number of people in the household, number of
children in the household, age of the youngest and oldest children,
dummy for children outside the household), an interaction term of the
age of the head of the household with the dummy for homeownership,
number of years the respondent had lived in the county of residence in
1983, a dummy reflecting whether the respondent had given "saving to
buy a house" as a reason for saving in 1983, a dummy for membership in
the high-income sample, and variables reflecting the level of interest
and suspicion that interviewers perceived in the respondents in 1983.
Difference in Actual and Predicted 1986 CPS Household Population,
By Age Groups
(Thousands of Persons)
Age group Males Females Males and Females
Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual
-Predicted -Predicted -Predicted
21 to 25 2,719 4,417 3,105 6,219 5,824 10,636
26 to 30 1,555 7,753 1,053 8,825 2,608 16,578
31 to 35 558 8,206 530 9,139 1,088 17,345
36 to 40 272 7,682 129 8,358 401 16,041
41 to 45 -255 6,110 -99 6,642 -354 12,752
46 to 50 48 5,200 -66 5,528 -18 10,728
51 to 55 155 4,984 -4 5,367 152 10,351
56 to 60 -49 5,011 -88 5,569 -137 10,581
61 to 65 -260 4,572 2 5,479 -258 10,050
66 to 70 -157 3,787 -107 4,592 -264 8,379
71 to 75 -267 2,807 -248 3,781 -515 6,589
76 to 80 -156 1,736 -292 2,558 -447 4,294
Over 80 -490 1,245 -583 2,288 -1,073 3,529
One final complication for W8386 is the treatment of
households that passed out of the sampled universe of households
either by moving to an institution, or by dying (these cannot be
distinguished from the data coded). For some purposes turning on
questions of differential mortality, it may be useful to have
estimates of the 1983 population including this group of households.
For this reason, versions of W8386 including such households have been
provided (C1016 and C1018). Note that W86 is identically zero for
these cases.
Imputations
-- FINAL SAMPLE -- -- IMPUTATIONS --
Percent Means of Percent Percent
owning owners missing imputed
----------------------------------------------------------
ASSETS 97.3% 173663 38.5% 16.2%
Principal residence 66.1% 80335 8.1% 5.7%
Other real estate (gross) 22.1% 120124 22.5% 18.5%
Public stock 19.8% 75594 20.3% 25.8%
Bonds 20.6% 26359 13.3% 12.3%
Check/savings accounts 88.7% 7709 22.6% 31.1%
IRAs 27.1% 19580 8.2% 11.1%
CDs/Money market 27.6% 33877 15.0% 17.9%
Business assets (net) 12.8% 206413 56.5% 38.5%
Automobiles 88.5% 7306 --- ---
Profit sharing & thrifts 15.0% 27033 27.0% 16.9%
Miscellaneous 44.6% 23512 3.2% 10.5%
DEBT 82.8% 28745 33.0% 8.7%
Principal residence debt 38.4% 34152 10.6% 9.4%
Installment debt 76.1% 4476 30.5% 8.7%
Other debt 22.2% 7782 3.4% 1.8%
Other real estate debt 9.4% 59141 14.8% 9.4%
NET WORTH 100.0% 145226 51.3% 17.4%
INCOME (GROSS) 100.0% 31731 6.8% 7.9%
*Figures for gross assets, debts and networth are the percentage or
asset or debt owners or for net worth, the entire sample of households
aged 25 or older, who are missing any asset, debt, or wealth item.
**This is the percentage of the aggregate weighted sample total of
each item which was imputed.
COMPARABILITY WITH OTHER DATA
A Comparison of the 1986 SCF and CPS
SCF CPS
Number Weighted Number Weighted
of cases share of cases share
-------------------- ---------------------
Age (head)
34 or less
married 661 16.9 9922 15.7
unmarried male 223 6.2 3435 6.2
unmarried female 273 7.6 4105 7.2
35 to 44
married 555 13.6 7830 13.6
unmarried male 71 1.8 1388 2.7
unmarried female 151 4.1 2165 4.2
45 to 54
married 492 10.5 6253 10.1
unmarried male 70 1.7 912 1.7
unmarried female 118 3.2 1735 3.0
55 to 64
married 475 9.7 5967 9.5
unmarried male 62 1.5 897 1.5
unmarried female 136 3.7 2130 3.6
65 or more
married 452 9.9 5532 9.7
unmarried male 74 1.8 1437 2.3
unmarried female 290 7.7 5293 9.2
Race
Caucasian 3468 82.3 47515 86.6
Nonwhite or Hispanic 635 17.7 11486 12.4
Family Income
less than $10,000 912 24.0 15053 21.3
$10,000 to $19,999 982 26.8 15580 23.1
$20,000 to $29,999 711 19.3 12072 18.9
$30,000 to $49,999 717 19.7 11533 22.7
$50,000 to $99,999 309 8.2 4480 12.3
$100,000 or more 472 2.0 283 1.7
Homeownership 2766 63.4 38320 63.8
Education of the Head
0 to 8 grades 560 14.5 9155 12.8
9 to 12 grades 1713 44.9 27269 46.5
some college 678 17.7 10355 18.6
college graduate 1152 22.9 12222 22.1
Labor Force Participation
single not working 635 17.0 11130 19.3
single, working 833 22.4 12367 22.2
married, neither working 389 9.8 7088 6.2
married, one working 1077 23.0 14023 22.8
married, both working 1169 27.8 14393 29.5
Totals 4103 100.0 59001 100.0
The representative quality of the 1986 SCF data can also be
evaluated by a comparison with aggregate data sources. The most
comparable of these is the Flow-of-Funds (FOF) accounts. A comparison
of the levels of various wealth items from the 1983 SCF and FOF
accounts shows remarkable consistency, heretofore not observed with
survey data (see Avery, Elliehausen, and Kennickell (1988)).
Survey-based estimates for many asset and debt categories were within
5 to 15 percent of aggregate estimates drawn from the Flow-of-Funds
(FOF) accounts for the same time period[20]. Moreover, the sign of the
discrepancy was not consistent -- survey-based estimates were not
systematically higher or lower than FOF estimates. Estimates did
differ substantially for checking and savings accounts, business, and
some real estate categories. However, since these are areas where
there are significant problems in the FOF, it is not clear whether
discrepancies stem from measurement problems in the survey-based
estimates or from the FOF or both.
A Comparison of Survey-based Wealth AggregatesWith Flow-of-Funds Estimates
($ Billions)
Survey Flow of Funds
Item 1983 1986 %Growth 1983 1986 %Growth
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Financial Institution
accounts/CDs 1032.9 1417.0 37.2% 1832.5 2485.3 35.6%
Stocks/bonds 1543.8 2088.6 35.3% 1438.3 2456.9 70.8%
Principal Residences 4276.4 5112.6 19.6% 2703.4 3388.3 25.3%
Non-corp. business 1852.8 1951.6 5.3% 2347.1 2415.6 2.9%
Home mortgages 995.4 1293.8 30.0% 1064.6 1480.6 39.1%
Other Debt 224.9 468.6 108.4% 332.8 519.7 56.2%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Classifications are not exhaustive and differ from those used
in previous tables. The 1986 survey figures were extrapolated to
include households under 25. The Flow-of-Funds estimates were
adjusted to take out non-profit holdings.
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