Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee
August 21, 2001 Presentation Materials -- Text Version
Presentation Materials (164 KB PDF)
APPENDIX 1
Charts used by Mr. Kos.
Page 1
Top panel
Title: 3-Month Deposit Rates and Rates Implied by Traded Forward Rate Agreements
Series: U.S. dollar Libor fixing, 3M forward, and 9M forward rates
Horizon: April 2, 2001 through August 17, 2001
Description: U.S. forward rates declined steadily over the period shown.
Middle panel
Title: Continuation of Top Panel
Series: Euro Libor fixing, 3M forward, and 9M forward rates
Horizon: April 2, 2001 through August 17, 2001
Description: Euro forward rates each declined approximately 25 percent over the period shown.
Bottom panel
Title: Japanese Government Yield Curve
Series: The yield curve, including Japanese 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year through 10-year yields
Horizon: There are three curves shown for the dates of 5/15/2001, 6/25/2001, and 8/17/2001.
Description: From 5/15/2001 to 6/25/2001 the yield curve shifted lower. However, since then on 8/17/2001, the curve has shifted higher above levels as seen on 5/15/2001.
Page 2
Top panel
Title: U.S. Treasury Coupon Yields
Series: Target federal funds rate, yields on benchmark 2-year, 10- year, and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities
Horizon: April 2, 2001 through August 17, 2001
Description: As the target federal funds rate continually decreased over the period shown, the 2-year Treasury declined by roughly 50 basis points, whereas the 10-year and 30-year Treasuries remained relatively stable.
Middle panel
Title: U.S. Equity Markets
Series: Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ composite index, and S&P 500 index
Horizon: April 2, 2001 through August 17, 2001
Description: All U.S. equity markets increased over the period shown with the NASDAQ composite index gaining the highest return.
Bottom panel
Title: Trade Weighted Dollar
Series: U.S. trade weighted dollar index
Horizon: April 2, 2001 through August 17, 2001
Description: The trade weighted dollar fluctuated over the period shown starting in early April 2001 and finished down roughly 1.5% by mid August 2001.
Sources: Bloomberg
Page 3
Top panel
Title: European Equities
Series: FTSE 100 index, DAX index, CAC 40 index, DJ Euro Stoxx index, Italy MIB 30 index, and Spain IBEX 35 index
Horizon: April 2, 2001 through August 17, 2001
Description: All European equity indices declined significantly over the period shown.
Middle panel
Title: Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate
Series: Euro currency performance in dollars per euro
Horizon: April 2, 2001 through August 17, 2001
Description: The Euro slightly appreciated against the dollar over the period shown.
Bottom left panel
Title: U.S. minus Euro Swap Rate Differentials
Series: 2-year swap rate differential
Horizon: April 2, 2001 through August 17, 2001
Description: The 2-year swap rate differential declined by roughly 30 basis points over the period shown.
Bottom right panel
Title: U.S. minus Euro Swap Rate Differentials
Series: 10-year swap rate differential
Horizon: April 2, 2001 through August 17, 2001
Description: The 10-year swap rate differential fluctuated but remained level over the period shown until it started to quickly decline in early August 2001.
Page 4
Top panel
Title: Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate
Series: Yen currency performance in yen per dollar
Horizon: April 2, 2001 through August 17, 2001
Description: The yen significantly appreciated against the dollar with most of the appreciation taking place since early July 2001.
Middle panel
Title: Nikkei and Topix Bank Sub-Index
Series: Nikkei index and Topix Bank sub-index
Horizon: April 2, 2001 through August 17, 2001
Description: While both the Nikkei index and the Topix Bank sub-index significantly declined over the period shown, the Nikkei declined more by approximately 5 percent.
Bottom panel
Title: Topix Bank Sub-Index
Series: Topix Bank sub-index
Horizon: January 1, 1998 through August 17, 2001
Description: The Topix Bank sub-index declined by approximately 150 points over the period shown.
Page 5
Top panel
Title: Monthly Growth Rates for Currency Component of M1
Series: Seasonally adjusted annual rates for currency component of M1
Horizon: January 2001 through August 2001 (NY staff estimate)
Description: Money growth rates were high and above 10% in the months of January, July, and August. However, all other months in the period shown averaged approximately 5%.
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