Finance and Economics Discussion Series: 2007-63 Screen Reader version ♣
Explaining a Productive Decade
STEPHEN D. OLINER
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
DANIEL E. SICHEL
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
KEVIN J. STIROH
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
August 2007
| Year | VA Correlation | GO Correlation | Reallocation of Hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1989 | -0.0535155 | -0.2014017 | -0.1776104 |
| 1990 | 0.0299843 | 0.0633859 | -0.626748 |
| 1991 | 0.1000967 | 0.0783202 | 0.0537759 |
| 1992 | -0.0725893 | -0.1199595 | -0.1637887 |
| 1993 | -0.1660838 | -0.3324218 | -0.3873191 |
| 1994 | -0.2866493 | -0.3129775 | -0.6610231 |
| 1995 | -0.1686769 | -0.3022837 | -0.4316677 |
| 1996 | -0.1403649 | -0.266374 | -0.2607342 |
| 1997 | -0.2109726 | -0.3687161 | -0.2620888 |
| 1998 | -0.0706867 | -0.1870511 | -0.1505468 |
| 1999 | -0.0844771 | -0.169673 | -0.1384549 |
| 2000 | -0.142785 | -0.1766794 | -0.249077 |
| 2001 | 0.1797918 | 0.0601071 | 0.4022595 |
| 2002 | 0.0475499 | -0.0335717 | -0.213789 |
| 2003 | 0.1371812 | 0.1006746 | 0.4618232 |
| 2004 | 0.1076868 | -0.0157399 | 0.0246695 |
| 2005 | -0.0318396 | -0.0746688 | -0.1665258 |
| short (code) | Hours Growth (Y-Axis) | Line | Change in profit share (X-Axis) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agr, Forest, Fish (3) | -1.308483 | -0.8647833 | 0.0161216 |
| Oil & Gas Extract (7) | 0.4783921 | -0.1678669 | 0.0523964 |
| Mining, ex Oil & Gas (8) | -1.926314 | -0.9807583 | 0.0100851 |
| Support for Mining (9) | -1.172935 | 0.0138422 | 0.0618545 |
| Construction (10) | 0.9976363 | -1.500137 | -0.0169488 |
| Wood products (13) | -1.852329 | -1.209801 | -0.0018367 |
| Nonmetallic Mineral (14) | -2.49086 | -2.160544 | -0.0513233 |
| Primary metals (15) | -6.443116 | -3.546301 | -0.1234525 |
| Fabricated Metal Prod (16) | -3.41293 | -2.126517 | -0.0495521 |
| Machinery (17) | -5.415203 | -1.093705 | 0.0042062 |
| Computer & Electronics (18) | -8.920343 | -7.14325 | -0.3106752 |
| Electrical Equipment (19) | -6.857538 | -1.650321 | -0.0247659 |
| Motor Vehicles (20) | -2.593133 | -2.339184 | -0.0606215 |
| Other Trans Equip (21) | -3.746842 | 0.9708623 | 0.1116678 |
| Furniture (22) | -2.77527 | -2.365643 | -0.0619987 |
| Misc Manufacturing (23) | -2.258348 | -1.236952 | -0.0032499 |
| Food, Bev, Tobacco (25) | -1.503017 | -0.5842755 | 0.0307222 |
| Textiles (26) | -8.376727 | -2.945268 | -0.0921685 |
| Apparel and Leather (27) | -12.85301 | -0.5213442 | 0.0339978 |
| Paper products (28) | -5.106559 | -2.444744 | -0.066116 |
| Printing (29) | -5.060967 | -1.732012 | -0.029018 |
| Petroleum and coal (30) | -1.922019 | -0.1011126 | 0.055871 |
| Chemical products (31) | -2.097127 | -2.079357 | -0.0470974 |
| Plastic and Rubber (32) | -3.324715 | -1.688687 | -0.0267629 |
| Utilities (33) | -2.11724 | -0.9789221 | 0.0101807 |
| Wholesale trade (34) | -1.358438 | -1.625871 | -0.0234933 |
| Retail trade (35) | -0.3693887 | -1.940353 | -0.0398622 |
| Air Trans (37) | -5.080532 | -3.649173 | -0.128807 |
| Rail Trans (38) | -1.24891 | -0.7624393 | 0.0214487 |
| Water Trans (39) | 2.957912 | -0.9861376 | 0.0098051 |
| Truck Trans (40) | 1.495143 | -1.915397 | -0.0385633 |
| Transit, Ground Trans (41) | 0.1541073 | -2.115091 | -0.0489574 |
| Pipeline Trans (42) | -2.092737 | -3.470051 | -0.1194837 |
| Other Trans (43) | -1.576428 | -1.298738 | -0.0064659 |
| Warehouse (44) | 1.95755 | -1.334555 | -0.0083302 |
| Publishing/Software (46) | -4.441948 | -2.26692 | -0.0568602 |
| Motion Picture (47) | 0.4269641 | 0.4534088 | 0.0847341 |
| Broadcast & Telecomm (48) | -5.650401 | -1.150145 | 0.0012684 |
| Info and Data Process (49) | -7.784585 | -5.252045 | -0.2122372 |
| Credit Intermediation (52) | 2.802341 | -0.9563905 | 0.0113534 |
| Securities (53) | -4.029498 | -3.96809 | -0.1454068 |
| Insurance (54) | 0.1773801 | -2.266361 | -0.0568311 |
| Funds, Trusts (55) | -0.033849 | 1.561463 | 0.1424088 |
| Real estate (57) | 3.150285 | -1.15881 | 0.0008174 |
| Rental and Leasing (58) | -1.36131 | -1.723026 | -0.0285503 |
| Legal services (61) | 0.920382 | -2.012373 | -0.0436109 |
| Computer System Design (62) | -3.328817 | -3.752531 | -0.1341869 |
| Misc Professional (63) | -0.3201887 | -2.176057 | -0.0521307 |
| Management of Companies (64) | -0.2184634 | -0.695214 | 0.0249478 |
| Administrative (66) | 0.3583012 | -1.20276 | -0.0014702 |
| Waste Management (67) | 1.434411 | -1.919163 | -0.0387593 |
| Educational services (69) | 1.779817 | -1.419524 | -0.0127529 |
| Ambulatory Health Care (71) | 4.033715 | -1.128978 | 0.0023702 |
| Hospitals and Nursing (72) | 2.254484 | -1.119297 | 0.0028741 |
| Social assistance (73) | 1.827863 | -1.258856 | -0.00439 |
| Performing Arts (76) | 1.729845 | -2.2769 | -0.0573797 |
| Amusements (77) | 0.5958664 | -1.59614 | -0.0219458 |
| Accommodation (79) | -1.226597 | -2.24542 | -0.0557411 |
| Food Services (80) | 1.743385 | -1.159844 | 0.0007636 |
| Other Services (81) | 0.4514197 | -1.665359 | -0.0255487 |
| Labor productivity growth (Y-axis) | Line | Change in profit share (X-Axis) |
|---|---|---|
| 3.740014 | 1.820317 | 0.0161216 |
| -1.523561 | 0.7880951 | 0.0523964 |
| 1.73843 | 1.99209 | 0.0100851 |
| 1.531038 | 0.5189608 | 0.0618545 |
| 0.4256444 | 2.761356 | -0.0169488 |
| 2.851529 | 2.331331 | -0.0018367 |
| 3.433168 | 3.739502 | -0.0513233 |
| 8.139627 | 5.791985 | -0.1234525 |
| 1.395554 | 3.689104 | -0.0495521 |
| 5.118451 | 2.159379 | 0.0042062 |
| 9.056442 | 11.11952 | -0.3106752 |
| 3.138146 | 2.983798 | -0.0247659 |
| 7.737225 | 4.004091 | -0.0606215 |
| -0.0310204 | -0.8985073 | 0.1116678 |
| 4.922609 | 4.04328 | -0.0619987 |
| 5.173014 | 2.371546 | -0.0032499 |
| 2.045653 | 1.404849 | 0.0307222 |
| 6.000783 | 4.901779 | -0.0921685 |
| -3.17227 | 1.31164 | 0.0339978 |
| 3.933162 | 4.160438 | -0.066116 |
| 2.14737 | 3.104793 | -0.029018 |
| 1.731358 | 0.6892234 | 0.055871 |
| 5.060474 | 3.619254 | -0.0470974 |
| 4.018407 | 3.040623 | -0.0267629 |
| 1.946808 | 1.989371 | 0.0101807 |
| 4.046704 | 2.947585 | -0.0234933 |
| 4.772104 | 3.413372 | -0.0398622 |
| 12.7394 | 5.944351 | -0.128807 |
| 3.725084 | 1.668732 | 0.0214487 |
| -2.342624 | 2.000058 | 0.0098051 |
| -1.034999 | 3.376409 | -0.0385633 |
| -0.2827822 | 3.672181 | -0.0489574 |
| 3.710467 | 5.679049 | -0.1194837 |
| 1.897588 | 2.463059 | -0.0064659 |
| 2.307115 | 2.516109 | -0.0083302 |
| 6.888424 | 3.897059 | -0.0568602 |
| 0.754397 | -0.1320931 | 0.0847341 |
| 8.934584 | 2.242974 | 0.0012684 |
| 14.84541 | 8.318408 | -0.2122372 |
| -0.7445472 | 1.955998 | 0.0113534 |
| 4.240605 | 6.416708 | -0.1454068 |
| 3.873351 | 3.896231 | -0.0568311 |
| 2.849963 | -1.773262 | 0.1424088 |
| 0.7106271 | 2.255807 | 0.0008174 |
| 3.07757 | 3.091483 | -0.0285503 |
| 1.765363 | 3.520043 | -0.0436109 |
| 3.691327 | 6.097438 | -0.1341869 |
| 4.791853 | 3.762479 | -0.0521307 |
| 2.850843 | 1.569163 | 0.0249478 |
| 1.981091 | 2.320903 | -0.0014702 |
| -0.606984 | 3.381986 | -0.0387593 |
| 0.2498995 | 2.641958 | -0.0127529 |
| 1.240421 | 2.211622 | 0.0023702 |
| 0.8606023 | 2.197283 | 0.0028741 |
| 1.885974 | 2.403988 | -0.00439 |
| -0.6522791 | 3.911841 | -0.0573797 |
| 2.537215 | 2.903549 | -0.0219458 |
| 5.34958 | 3.865214 | -0.0557411 |
| 0.9676438 | 2.257339 | 0.0007636 |
| 0.8998661 | 3.00607 | -0.0255487 |
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