Currency Crashes in Industrial Countries: Much Ado About Nothing?

Joseph E. Gagnon^*

NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References in publications to International Finance Discussion Papers (other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to unpublished material) should be cleared with the author or authors. Recent IFDPs are available on the Web at http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/. This paper can be downloaded without charge from the Social Science Research Network electronic library at http://www.ssrn.com/.

Abstract:

Sharp exchange rate depreciations, or currency crashes, are associated with poor economic outcomes in industrial countries only when they are caused by inflationary macroeconomic policies. Moreover, the poor outcomes are attributable to inflationary policies in general and not the currency crashes in particular. On the other hand, crashes caused by rising unemployment or external deficits have always had good economic consequences with stable or falling inflation rates.

Keywords: Exchange rate, depreciation, inflation, unemployment, current account

JEL classification: F31, F32, F41

1. Introduction and Summary

Many economic commentators appear to believe that currency crashes invariably have harmful effects.¹ This paper shows that, for industrial countries, the evidence does not support this commonly held view.

Using quarterly data for 20 industrial countries since 1970, this paper identifies 19 episodes of sharp exchange rate depreciations or currency crashes. The episodes are categorized according to the causal factors that appear to have been important in each case. Three broad groupings of causal factors are identified: inflationary macroeconomic policies, large current account deficits or capital outflows, and rising unemployment rates. Often more than one of these factor groupings appeared to be present.

Crashes were followed by poor macroeconomic outcomes (slow GDP growth, rising bond yields, and falling equity prices) only when they resulted from inflationary macroeconomic policies. Moreover, currency crashes did not, by themselves, appear to contribute to these poor outcomes. Indeed, the evidence suggests that currency crashes tended to counteract the slowing of GDP growth that often occurs during and after inflationary periods. Ceteris paribus, currency crashes do contribute to inflationary pressure, but there are numerous episodes of crashes in which inflation remained constant or even declined in the quarters immediately after the crash, reflecting the effects of other economic forces.

Before 1986, crashes were almost always caused by inflationary macroeconomic policies (and inflationary policies typically led to declining external balances). A common theme among most of the inflationary episodes is the apparent underestimation of the natural rate of unemployment by policy makers. In the wake of these inflationary crashes, the behavior of GDP growth depended critically on monetary and fiscal policies. When authorities decided to fight inflation, recession typically ensued. When authorities did not fight inflation, the economy generally continued to grow.² In most of the episodes driven by inflation, bond yields rose and real equity prices fell, regardless of the stance of macroeconomic policy.

Since 1985, crashes appear to have been caused by negative shocks to economic activity and/or financial market concerns about current account sustainability. Crashes in this period have been less frequent than in the years prior to 1986 and they have always been followed by periods of strong growth with little or no acceleration of inflation, stable or falling bond yields, and rising real equity prices.

2. Previous Studies

An extensive literature seeks to explain financial crises or to identify early warning indicators of such crises, particularly in emerging markets. This literature encompasses banking crises, sovereign debt crises, and currency crises, where "currency crisis" may be defined to include periods of sharp depreciation as well as periods in which a central bank successfully defends a currency peg from a speculative attack. Good reviews of the early warning literature on currency crises are Edison (2003) and Berg, Borensztein, and Pattillo (2004). Three studies that focus on sharp depreciations, or "currency crashes," in emerging markets are Frankel and Rose (1996), Milesi-Ferretti and Razin (1998), and Kumar, Moorthy, and Perraudin (2003). These studies find that depletion of foreign exchange reserves is a robust predictor of currency crashes; other, less robust, predictors include rapid domestic credit growth, an overvalued exchange rate, weak GDP growth, and high industrial-country interest rates. Somewhat surprisingly, these studies do not find a consistent correlation between the level of foreign debt or the current account balance and subsequent currency crashes. Dooley and Frankel (2003) examine the consequences of currency crises in emerging markets. The papers in their volume highlight the importance of large foreign-currency debts and weak macroeconomic policy institutions in explaining the poor economic outcomes in these emerging-market episodes.

In an interesting study that bridges the gap between emerging markets and industrial countries, Osband and van Rijckeghem (2000) search for ranges of relevant macro and financial variables which historically have been associated with extremely low probabilities of a currency crisis in the following year. They find that high foreign exchange reserves, low foreign debt, and a higher (more positive) current account balance imply a very low probability of a currency crisis. After estimating these relationships on developing-country data, they apply them to industrial countries and show that they hold up well. Tudela (2004) applies indicator analysis to industrial countries and finds that import growth, fiscal deficits, non-FDI capital inflows, and an appreciated real exchange rate are all positively related to the probability of currency crisis in the following year. Wright and Gagnon (2006) find that current account deficits, high inflation rates, and weak GDP growth rates have predictive power for currency crashes in industrial countries.

Gagnon (2009) is the only extant study of the effects of currency crashes in industrial countries. Using a different dataset and crash definition than this paper, Gagnon found that currency crashes were followed by rising bond yields only when inflation was high and/or rising before the crash, and that no currency crash since 1985 was followed (or preceded) by rising bond yields. Crashes since 1985 also tended to be associated with rising real equity values. Croke, Kamin, and Leduc (2006), Debelle and Galati (2005), Algieri and Bracke (2007), and Freund and Warnock (2007) examine reversals of major current account deficits in industrial countries. There is some overlap between episodes of currency crashes and episodes of current account adjustment, with crashes tending to occur before adjustments. But many currency crashes are not followed by current account adjustments and many current account adjustments are not preceded by currency crashes. Three of these studies (Debelle and Galati is the exception) find that episodes with the largest currency depreciations are generally those with the most benign outcomes for GDP growth.

3. Data Sources

This paper uses quarterly-average effective, or trade-weighted, nominal and real exchange rates available from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) based on a group of 26 relatively advanced economies. The effective exchange rates are available from 1964, but we start our analysis in 1970 because most of the other economic series we use are available only from 1970. The 20 countries we study are Australia (AL), Belgium (BE), Canada (CA), Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), France (FR), Germany (GE), Greece (GC), Ireland (IR), Italy (IT), Japan (JA), Netherlands (NL), New Zealand (NZ), Norway (NO), Portugal (PT), Spain (SP), Sweden (SD), Switzerland (SZ), the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US).³

Most of the other data used in this paper are from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Economic Outlook database. The primary exceptions are equity prices (from the OECD Main Economic Indicators database) and foreign exchange reserves and dollar exchange rates (from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) International Financial Statistics database). Where possible, gaps in the data were filled in using the IMF International Financial Statistics database.⁴Government balances for all countries are at an annual frequency.⁵ Inflation rates are based on GDP deflators.

4. Identification of Crashes

A necessary condition for a crash in this paper is an exchange rate depreciation that exceeds 15 percent over four quarters.⁶ In some cases, the exchange rate continued to decline at a rate in excess of 15 percent for several quarters, but I group such closely connected periods of depreciation as single episodes.

To qualify as a separate episode, the four-quarter exchange rate depreciation must exceed 15 percent and it must not have exceeded 15 percent in any of the previous four quarters. Applying this criterion yields 27 episodes.

In some of these 27 episodes, the sharp depreciation reflected a quick reversal of a previous sharp appreciation. In some other cases, the sharp depreciation was itself reversed soon afterwards. In order to focus on episodes that represent a sustained change in the economic environment, I apply two additional criteria to filter out transitory exchange rate fluctuations.

First, I require that the 15-percent depreciation criterion also holds when measured over the previous eight quarters, to rule out cases in which the exchange rate was simply reversing a temporary appreciation.
- This criterion filters out the following episodes: JA1979, JA1996, NZ1986, NZ1998, SD1977, and UK1986.
Second, I require that the exchange rate not unwind more than one-fourth of its four-quarter depreciation during the subsequent four quarters.
- This criterion filters out the following episodes: IT1995, JA1990, NZ1986, and UK1986.

I believe that excluding most of these episodes is reasonable. In particular, contemporaneous economic reporting generally did not view these episodes as periods of currency crisis. Two potential exceptions are NZ1998 and SD1977, which were viewed as periods of currency crisis by some contemporaneous observers. Including these in our analysis would not have affected the results of this paper; the Swedish experience of 1977 fits in well with the inflationary crashes and the New Zealand experience in 1998 accords well with the crashes driven by rising unemployment.

A third criterion that some previous studies of developing countries have imposed (Frankel and Rose) is that the depreciation is not simply a gradual acceleration of a pre-existing downtrend. That criterion does not appear to be relevant for industrial countries. Requiring that the four-quarter exchange rate depreciation be at least 7.5 percentage points greater than that over the previous four quarters does not filter out any of these episodes.⁷ All of them represented substantial accelerations of the rate of depreciation.

Altogether then, this paper examines 19 episodes of sharp depreciations, or currency crashes: AL1985, FI1992, GC1980, GC1983, GC1985, IT1973, IT1976, IT1993, NZ1975, NZ1984, PT1977, PT1982, SD1983, SD1993, SP1977, SP1983, SP1993, UK1976, and US1986.⁸ Most of these episodes were viewed by some contemporaneous observers as periods of currency crisis. Figure 1 plots the four-quarter change in the nominal effective exchange rate for each country in our dataset, with the beginning of each crash episode marked by a vertical red line.⁹

As an aside, I note that applying the analogous criteria to sharp exchange rate appreciations would identify only 9 episodes of sharp and sustained appreciations: AL2003, GE1973, JA1977, JA1986, JA1993, JA1999, SZ1975, SZ1978, and UK1997. The relative rarity of sharp appreciations implies at least a modest degree of asymmetry between appreciations and depreciations.

5. Causes of Crash Episodes

Variables identified by the empirical literature as related to currency crashes can be grouped into three broad categories relating to underlying factors.

High current or expected inflation. Excessively expansionary macroeconomic policies.
Large current account deficit. Decreasing stock of foreign exchange reserves. Large or growing foreign debt.
- Rising unemployment. Weak aggregate demand. Slow GDP growth.

Moreover, there are interconnections between these factors. In particular, expansionary macroeconomic policies can boost demand for imports and thus lower the current account balance. Also, a drop in foreign demand for a country's exports can create a current account deficit and rising unemployment.

High Inflation

Inflationary policies ultimately put upward pressure on all prices, including the price of foreign currency. A rise in the price of foreign currency is a depreciation of the exchange rate. Whether the exchange rate depreciation happens early or late in the inflationary process depends critically on a myriad of factors, such as wage and price controls, trade barriers, controls on international capital flows, and the exchange rate regime. Perhaps the most important factor is the exchange rate regime.

When the central bank pegs or stabilizes the exchange rate in the face of inflationary macroeconomic policies, prices of goods and services tend to rise before the exchange rate depreciates. These price increases push up the real exchange rate, leading to a decline in the current account balance. Investors may anticipate that a depreciation ultimately will be necessary, leading to outflows of private capital. The downturns in the balances for both current transactions and private capital flows deplete the central bank's foreign exchange reserves, ultimately forcing it to devalue the currency.
When the central bank adjusts the exchange rate frequently or allows it to float in the face of inflationary macroeconomic policies, the exchange rate often depreciates before broad price indexes begin to accelerate. As an asset price set in financial markets, the exchange rate tends to respond quickly to new information, including information on the future stance of macroeconomic policy.

Pressures on External Accounts

As noted above, when the exchange rate is not freely floating, a widening current account deficit and diminishing foreign exchange reserves can be part of the process by which inflationary policies lead to currency crashes. However, other sources of change in the demand and supply of a country's imports and exports can also contribute to a widening current account deficit and diminishing reserves. These include, for example, trade policies, global commodity prices, business cycles in key trading partners, and investor perceptions of the investment climate. A currency crash occurs when investors suddenly decide to pull their capital out or to stop financing the current account imbalance.

Rising Unemployment

A third factor contributing to currency crashes is a negative shock to aggregate demand that slows economic activity and increases the rate of unemployment. In the face of a contractionary shock, central banks tend to ease monetary policy. In the case of fixed exchange rate regimes, the ease takes the form of a devaluation. In the case of floating exchange rate regimes, the ease takes the form of lower interest rates, which in turn push down the exchange value of the currency. If the source of the shock is reduced demand for a country's exports, the current account deficit may also contribute to the currency crash.

Historical Experience

Table 1 displays measures of these three factors around the onsets of currency crashes. The first column shows the difference between inflation in the country experiencing a currency crash and the average over all 20 countries, which is termed "excess inflation." Excess inflation is based on the average annual percent changes from four quarters before the start of the crash to four quarters after the start of the crash.¹⁰The value of 5.4 in the first row implies that the price level in Italy rose by nearly 11 percentage points more than the average across all industrial countries over the eight quarters surrounding the onset of the 1973 crash. The bottom rows show that the mean of excess inflation in crash episodes was 4.4 percent and the mean across all countries and time periods was 0 with a standard deviation of 3.3 percentage points. Numbers in bold are more than one standard deviation above or below the sample mean. In about half of the crash episodes, excess inflation was more than one standard deviation above the sample mean and it was never more than one standard deviation below the mean. This finding corroborates the view that currency crashes are often caused by inflationary policies. Despite the small negative value of excess inflation in Australia 1985, this episode is categorized as an inflationary one because the IMF attributed the crash in part to market unease about monetary conditions and because excess inflation increased markedly over the following two years.

The second column of Table 1 lists the current account balance in the quarter before the start of a crash as a percent of GDP. All but one entry are negative, and five are more than one standard deviation below the mean of -0.3 percent. The table does not plot foreign exchange reserves because the relationship between reserves and currency crashes holds only in the cases of fixed exchange rates.¹¹

The third column of Table 1 shows the change in the unemployment rate over the eight quarters ending in the quarter before the onset of the crash. Six of the crash episodes were associated with a rise in unemployment that exceeded the mean by more than one standard deviation--indeed four episodes exceeded the mean by more than two standard deviations. Although Italian unemployment had changed little on balance over the eight quarters before the 1993 crash, the episode is associated with rising unemployment because unemployment turned up two quarters before the crash and continued to rise for some time afterwards; also GDP growth turned negative shortly before the crash.

The final three columns of Table 1 summarize the causal factors behind each currency crash. The letter "I" stands for excess inflation; "C" stands for the current account deficit; and "U" stands for the change in the unemployment rate. Capital letters are used when the associated factor exceeded its sample mean by more than one standard deviation. Lower-case letters are used when the factor was close to the one standard deviation threshold or when other evidence supports a role for the causal factor as discussed in the case studies below.

At least one factor is identified for every crash episode, and all but four episodes are associated with factors that exceeded the one standard deviation threshold.¹² Prior to the mid-1980s, inflation was always an important causal factor. Rising unemployment seems to have become more important later in the sample.

6. Consequences of Crash Episodes

Table 2 presents evidence on the consequences of currency crashes. The first three columns repeat the causal factors identified in Table 1 for convenience. The next column shows the change in the inflation rate from the eight-quarter period ending in the quarter before the crash to the eight-quarter period beginning with the start of the crash. Roughly half of the changes were positive and half were negative. As in Table 1, entries in bold differ from the sample mean by more than one standard deviation. The largest changes in inflation, both up and down, occurred in the episodes that were driven by inflationary pressures. When inflationary crashes were followed by tighter macroeconomic policies--as discussed in the case studies below--inflation often fell after the crash. Conversely, when crashes were not accompanied by tighter policies--and sometimes crashes were themselves a deliberate step to loosen policy--inflation typically rose after the crash.

The column labeled "Change in Net Exports" displays the change in net exports as a percent of GDP from the quarter before the crash to seven quarters after the crash started (eight quarters in total). This change was almost always positive; only for Greece in 1980 was it notably negative. Inflation in Greece around the 1980 crash was so high that the real exchange rate was reduced only briefly and quickly resumed its upward trend; thus the crash provided no impetus to net exports.

The next column shows the average growth rate of GDP over the eight quarters following the onset of the crash. The average growth rate after the onset of crashes was 1.7 percent, compared to an average of 2.6 percent across all countries and time periods. Growth was more than one standard deviation below the sample average in many episodes and only for New Zealand in 1984 did growth come close to exceeding the sample average by more than one standard deviation. All of the low growth episodes were associated with high values of excess inflation in Table 1.

The column labeled "Change in GDP Growth" shows the change between the growth rate over the eight quarters ending in the quarter before the crash and the growth rate over the eight quarters after the crash. In this column there are episodes that differed from the sample average by more than one standard deviation on both the upside and the downside. Decreases in the growth rate occurred only in episodes that had excess inflation as a causal factor. The largest increases in the growth rate occurred in the 1990s episodes that had unemployment, and not inflation, as causal factors.

The next column shows the change in the long-term government bond yield from the quarter before the crash to three quarters after the onset of the crash.¹³ Bond yields rose sharply in a number of episodes that were associated with high inflation. Bond yields dropped sharply in a number of episodes that were associated with rising unemployment and no excess inflation.

The final column shows the change in a broad equity index deflated by the GDP deflator from the quarter before the crash to three quarters after the onset of the crash. Falling equity prices tend to be associated with inflationary currency crashes and rising equity prices tend to be associated with non-inflationary currency crashes.

Relating Causes to Consequences

Table 3 presents results of regressions that relate the consequences of currency crashes to the causal factors behind crashes. In each column, one of the variables of Table 2 is regressed on the variables of Table 1.¹⁴ For GDP growth and the change in GDP growth, the value of GDP growth over the eight quarters ending in the quarter before the onset of the crash is added to the regression to control for cyclical dynamics that may not be related to crashes. The columns labeled "full" include all independent variables. The columns labeled "restricted" show the results of a sequential test-down procedure that successively eliminates the non-significant independent variables (except the constant).

For GDP growth after the onset of a currency crash, excess inflation during the crash is a significant explanatory factor. Each percentage point of excess inflation lowers GDP growth roughly one quarter of a percentage point. For the change in GDP growth after the onset of a currency crash, both excess inflation and the lagged change in unemployment are significant predictors. Excess inflation has a similar effect to that observed in the previous regressions, but now the change in unemployment is an even more important factor. Each percentage point rise in the unemployment rate before a crash implies a percentage point increase in the GDP growth rate after a crash begins. This finding likely results from policy easing in response to rising unemployment, which appears to be successful in stimulating growth.

For bond yields, the only causal factor that matters is excess inflation. Higher excess inflation is associated with rising bond yields. For real equity prices, all factors appear to matter. The effect of excess inflation is highly significant and robust to the other variables; higher excess inflation is associated with falling real equity prices. Current account deficits and rising unemployment are associated with rising real equity prices, but these effects are less significant and less robust to inclusion of the other variables than the inflation effect.

An important omitted factor in these regressions is the stance of macroeconomic policy. Quarterly data on fiscal deficits are not available for most of these countries in the 1970s and 1980s. Moreover, calculating cyclically adjusted deficits and the effective monetary stance are fraught with pitfalls given the uncertainty about potential output, the effects of price, wage, and capital controls, expectations about future inflation and future fiscal policies, and differences across countries in the relative importance of interest-rate versus exchange-rate channels for monetary policy. The real short-term interest rate (based on trailing four-quarter inflation) is not significant when added to any of the regressions in Table 3. However, the case studies below support the view that the subsequent stance of macroeconomic policy is critical in explaining the consequences of inflationary currency crashes for GDP growth. When governments shifted to fighting inflation, GDP growth typically suffered in the short run. When governments did not fight inflation, GDP growth was generally maintained over the near term. For non-inflationary currency crashes that were associated with rising unemployment, governments always eased macroeconomic policies and GDP growth always rebounded.

Inflation, GDP Growth, and Crashes

The preceding sections show that currency crashes are followed by weak or declining GDP growth only when they appeared to be caused by inflationary policies. A related question is whether crashes themselves retard GDP growth, or whether other aspects of inflationary periods tend to damp growth. To answer this question, consider the growth outcomes of the most inflationary episodes across all countries and years. There are 25 episodes in which four-quarter inflation in one of the 20 countries exceeded the average across all countries by more than two standard deviations (7.2 percentage points).¹⁵ The average GDP growth rate over the eight quarters after this inflationary threshold was breached was 2.2 percent, slightly lower than the sample average growth rate of 2.6 percent. Seven of these 25 episodes were associated with a currency crash.¹⁶ In the crash episodes, GDP growth averaged 2.9 percent. In the non-crash inflationary episodes, GDP growth averaged 2.0 percent. The difference between the crash and non-crash growth means is not statistically significant, but it does suggest that currency crashes may help to ameliorate some of the harmful after-effects of inflationary episodes.

7. Case Studies

This section explores the historical record following each currency crash to bolster the conclusions reported above and to better understand the individual circumstances associated with currency crashes. The primary sources are IMF documents written shortly after each crash episode. "ART" stands for Staff Report for Article IV Consultation. "RED" stands for Recent Economic Developments.

A common theme among the inflationary episodes is that governments underestimated the natural rate of unemployment (sometimes called the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, or NAIRU). The rise of the NAIRU in the 1970s and early 1980s is discussed in Blanchard (2005, p.2) who describes it as a "tough learning experience, both for economists and for policy makers." Attempts by policy makers to stimulate economic activity and reduce unemployment spilled over into high and rising rates of inflation, which appears to have been the major causal factor behind a number of currency crashes.

Italy 1973Q3

Italian authorities appear to have underestimated the NAIRU in the early 1970s and their attempts to stimulate growth spilled over into high inflation. The OECD Economic Survey of Italy in January 1975 (p. 21) states that the primary goal of monetary policy in 1973 was to "maintain the growth of the economy." The real short-term interest rate was slightly negative in 1971 and 1972. (See Figure 5.) Soaring inflation in 1973 pushed the real short-term rate to -7 percent by the start of the crash, and it stayed around -5 percent for most of the next two years even as the authorities attempted to tighten monetary conditions by increasing the nominal rate. In 1974 the authorities also tightened monetary conditions through credit controls (OECD Survey, p. 23, and IMF RED August 1974, p. 48), but it is not clear how much effect these had. Fiscal policy appears to have been stimulative throughout the early 1970s as the deficit grew during the sluggish period of 1971-72 and remained constant in 1973-74 despite rapid economic growth. The lira was allowed to float in February 1973 and it depreciated in several steps over the next few months. The depreciation was driven by the easy stance of monetary policy and a general lack of confidence in Italian macroeconomic policies, especially as inflation ramped up in the first half of 1973. According to the IMF (RED August 1974, p. 47) "speculative activity helped ingrain expectations of further price inflation and exchange rate depreciation."

The net result of these policies was very strong growth of real GDP in 1973 and early 1974. Inflation, however, soared from 6 percent in 1972 to more than 20 percent in 1974. Bond yields rose about 4 percentage points in 1974. The real equity price index jumped shortly after the lire was floated, but then generally performed poorly.

Bottom line: Loose macroeconomic policy caused the crash and continued loose policy after the crash stimulated both growth and inflation.

New Zealand 1975Q4

The New Zealand economy was subject to extremely large terms-of-trade shocks in the early 1970s: first rising prices of farm exports in 1972-73 and then rising prices of oil imports in 1974. (See Figure 6.) Booming farm income led to unsustainably high GDP growth of over 8 percent in both 1973 and 1974. According to the IMF (RED April 1976, pp. 13, 21) monetary and fiscal policies were slightly restrictive in 1974. Nevertheless, the strong growth in economic activity sparked soaring inflation that hit with a lag in 1975, just as the economy fell into recession in response to the oil shock and the global slowdown.¹⁷ In response to the sagging economy, the government returned to expansionary macroeconomic policies in 1975, with rapidly growing public expenditures (IMF RED January 1978, p. 2) and a marked fall in short-term interest rates. The continuation of a large current account deficit led the government to devalue the New Zealand dollar 15 percent in August 1975.

The stimulus to net exports from the depreciation helped to spark a mild recovery in 1976, but the economy was probably operating above long-run capacity throughout the period; the unemployment rate remained below 1 percent through 1977. A tightening of wage and price controls in mid-1976 had only a temporary restraining effect on inflation. (IMF RED January 1978, p. 9) The government adopted tighter monetary and fiscal policies in 1976. (IMF RED January 1978, p. 27) Bond yields rose moderately after the crash. Real equity prices were roughly stable during and immediately after the crash.

Bottom line: The currency crash was caused by a combination of inflation and a negative terms-of-trade shock that widened the current account deficit. Real depreciation provided a temporary boost to the economy, but the beneficial effects were limited as the economy was probably already operating above its sustainable rate.

Italy 1976Q2

As one of the industrial countries that was most dependent on imported oil, Italy's terms of trade suffered acutely from the oil price shock of 1974 and the Italian economy entered a recession, along with much of the rest of the world, in late 1974. According to the OECD Economic Survey of Italy in January 1976 (p. 5), "the Italian authorities shifted their monetary and fiscal policy to a much more expansionary stance as from the beginning of 1975." These policies appear to have had the intended effect on output, albeit at the expense of renewed inflation. GDP resumed rapid growth in the third quarter of 1975. (See Figure 5.) Inflation, which decelerated through late 1975, popped back up in early 1976. The lira crash occurred simultaneously with the burst of inflation. GDP growth was very strong in all 4 quarters of 1976.

The authorities tightened macroeconomic policies immediately after the crash; the short-term interest rate soared from 11 percent to 18 percent. (OECD Economic Survey of Italy in March 1977, p. 25, and IMF RED April 1977, p. 2) Although the burst of inflation kept the real short-term interest rate somewhat below zero for a while, the increase from a more deeply negative value combined with tax increases and spending cuts appears to have brought growth to a brief halt in 1977 and allowed inflation to ease somewhat in 1977 and 1978. Export growth was robust in 1976, 1977, and 1978, and the current account moved up significantly. Bond yields rose initially, but then fell back with the slowdown in GDP growth in 1977. Real equity prices fell in the crash quarter and most of the subsequent quarters.

Bottom line: The currency crash was caused by inflationary pressure. The stimulus to GDP from the depreciation was later offset by tighter macro policies.

United Kingdom 1976Q2

Authorities in the United Kingdom appear to have underestimated the NAIRU in the 1970s. Their attempts to stimulate output and employment spilled over into the highest inflation rate among industrial countries in 1975. (See Figure 10.) According to the IMF (RED July 1977, p. 40) U.K. fiscal policy was "increasingly expansionary" through 1975 and initial plans for 1976 "provided for a mild additional stimulus." The central bank allowed real short-term interest rates to become deeply negative throughout 1975 and early 1976. The pound depreciated sharply in the first half of 1976. In response, the central bank raised interest rates modestly and a small fiscal tightening was announced in mid-1976. Financial markets generally were not impressed by these initial measures and the exchange rate depreciated sharply further in late 1976. The central bank responded by hiking real interest rates into positive territory and the government announced further fiscal tightening in conjunction with an IMF loan package in December 1976. (IMF RED July 1977, p. 44) The fiscal plans may have been based on optimistic assumptions about economic growth and tax revenues, however, because the final data show only a small improvement in the fiscal balance in 1977.

In early 1977, the exchange rate began to strengthen as markets regained confidence in U.K. macroeconomic policies. (IMF RED June 1978, p. 1) The central bank lowered interest rates significantly in 1977, and bond yields also declined. Exports grew relatively strongly in 1976 and 1977. Inflation backed off its peak levels, but remained in double digits. Real equity prices declined briefly around and after the crash, but then recovered within a year.

Bottom line: The crash was caused by inflationary macro policies. After the crash, policies were tightened enough to keep GDP from accelerating, but not enough to fully reverse the spike in inflation.

Portugal 1977Q1

Portuguese authorities appear to have underestimated the NAIRU in the 1970s. From 1971 through 1977 inflation was on a steep upward path that was only moderately interrupted by the recession of 1974-75. (See Figure 7.) The rapid recovery and rising inflation in 1976 caused a significant widening of the current account deficit. The authorities devalued the exchange rate 15 percent in February 1977, but this initial devaluation reversed only about half of the real appreciation caused by high inflation since 1973. As monetary policy remained expansionary (and fiscal policy was roughly neutral) inflation remained high and the external balance did not begin to improve. Portugal experienced a currency crisis in August 1977 that led to a new managed floating regime and further exchange rate depreciation through 1978. (IMF RED December 1978, p. 1)

Monetary policy was tightened significantly in late 1977 and early 1978. Real interest rates rose substantially (although they remained slightly negative) and quantitative credit restrictions were also tightened. Fiscal policy was roughly neutral in 1978. Exports grew strongly in 1978 and 1979. GDP growth was moderate and inflation remained high. Wage and price controls may have prevented inflation from increasing further. (IMF RED July 1984, pp. 8-9) Bond yields rose markedly in the quarters after the crash. Equity price data are not available.

Bottom line: The crash was caused by inflationary macro policies. After the crash, policies were tightened enough to offset the stimulus from net exports, but not enough to end high inflation.

Spain 1977Q3

Spanish authorities appear to have underestimated the NAIRU in the 1970s. From 1971 through 1977 inflation was on a steep upward path that was only moderately interrupted by the recession of 1974-75. (See Figure 8.) The rapid recovery and appreciating real exchange rate caused a widening of the current account deficit in 1976. The authorities devalued the exchange rate 20 percent in July 1977, reversing much of the real appreciation caused by high inflation since 1973.

Monetary policy was tightened somewhat in late 1977 and 1978, but interest rates were volatile as the central bank's policy focus was on the growth of the monetary aggregates rather than on interest rates. Fiscal policy was loosened in 1978 and then tightened in 1979. (IMF RED February 1980, pp. 1-2, 20, 34) Exports grew moderately in 1978 and 1979. GDP growth was weak and inflation moved down.

Bottom line: The crash was caused by inflationary macro policies. After the crash, policies were tightened to more than offset the stimulus from net exports and damp inflation.

United States 1978Q3

The dollar crisis of 1978 is not a crash by these criteria. The peak four-quarter change in the nominal effective exchange value of the dollar was -12 percent in the third quarter of 1978. Nevertheless, it may be interesting to examine the circumstances surrounding this episode.

After the recession of 1974-75, GDP grew strongly in 1976 and 1977. (See Figure 11.) The authorities appear to have underestimated the NAIRU and allowed inflation to drift upward in 1977 and 1978 from its 1976 trough. Financial markets were not impressed by the half-hearted steps to tighten policy in late 1977 and 1978, leading to downward pressure on the dollar.

Modest further macro tightening at the end of 1978 (as part of a multi-country support agreement for the dollar) succeeded in stabilizing the currency and caused growth to stagnate in the first half of 1979 despite a significant positive contribution from net exports. The tightening was not sufficient to prevent a continued upward trend in inflation. Indeed, the IMF argued in May 1979 (IMF ART May 1979, p. 16) that "inflation is the most pressing economic problem faced by the United States." Bond yields rose about 1 percentage point over the course of 1978. The dollar crisis had little apparent effect on real equity prices.

Bottom line: The dollar crisis was caused by inflationary macro policies. After the crisis, policies were tightened more than enough to offset the stimulus from net exports, but not enough to damp inflation.

Greece 1980Q2

Greek authorities appear to have underestimated the NAIRU in the late 1970s; the unemployment rate in 1978 and 1979 was probably far below its sustainable rate. (See Figure 4.) According to the IMF (IMF ART August 1980, pp. 1, 5, 7) monetary and fiscal policies were expansionary from 1975 through 1979. Inflationary pressures were already building when the 1979 oil price shock hit. In early 1980 the authorities stepped up the rate of managed depreciation of the exchange rate to stabilize the real exchange rate. The criteria for a currency crash were reached in the second quarter of 1980.

With the real exchange rate little changed, the crash had no significant effect on export growth. According to the IMF (IMF RED March 1983, p.2) Greek monetary and fiscal policies were "increasingly expansionary" through 1981. Nevertheless, it would probably have required a massive further acceleration of inflation to keep unemployment from rising and GDP from stagnating given how long the economy had operated above its sustainable rate. Real equity prices began a precipitous decline in 1980. According to the IMF (ART April 1985, p. 10b) there were no long-term domestic-currency government bonds in Greece in the early 1980s.

Bottom line: The crash was a deliberate government policy to offset high inflation and maintain a stable real exchange rate. With no real exchange rate depreciation there was no net stimulus to aggregate demand. GDP stagnated despite loose macroeconomic policies and inflation continued to rise.

Portugal 1982Q3

The Portuguese authorities appear to have continued to underestimate the NAIRU in the early 1980s. As economic growth slowed in 1980, the authorities instituted expansionary monetary and fiscal policies that continued until the middle of 1983 according to the IMF. (IMF RED July 1984, p. 1) These provided only a modest temporary boost to GDP growth and inflation stepped up substantially. (See Figure 7.) The managed crawl of the exchange rate was not fast enough to offset the higher inflation in Portugal and the real exchange rate appreciated in 1981 and early 1982, contributing to a sustained large current account deficit.¹⁸ In June 1982 the authorities enacted a discrete devaluation, but other macro policies were largely unaffected.

The depreciation helped to boost exports, but output stagnated amidst ongoing high inflation. The current account deficit narrowed but remained large and capital flight accelerated, reflecting a lack of anti-inflationary credibility. In June 1983, in conjunction with an IMF adjustment package, the authorities devalued the exchange rate a further 12 percent and continued the downward crawl. This time, however, monetary and fiscal policies were tightened. (IMF RED July 1984, p. 1) Exports continued to grow strongly, but GDP contracted in late 1983 and early 1984 as tight macroeconomic policies reduced domestic demand. Inflation declined only slightly in 1984 and 1985, as the downward pressure from economic slack was offset by a series of administered increases of government-controlled prices that were part of the fiscal tightening and possibly some pent-up price increases left over from the period of wage and price controls. (IMF RED 1984 p. 9) In 1986, inflation dropped sharply.

Bottom line: The currency crash was deliberate government policy. Exports were strongly stimulated. Macroeconomic policy was initially loose, but then tightened to fight inflation. It took a deep recession and a long lag to get inflation down.

Spain 1983Q1

The Spanish authorities tolerated slow growth in 1979 and 1980 to fight inflation, but when growth collapsed again in 1981, they switched to a focus on boosting growth and employment. (IMF RED July 27, 1984, p. 1) Inflation stepped up temporarily in 1981 in part as food prices rose after a bad harvest. (See Figure 8.) GDP growth recovered moderately in 1982. The managed crawl of the exchange rate barely managed to offset the higher inflation in Spain, leaving the real exchange rate higher than it had been for most of the previous decade and allowing the current account to remain in a moderate deficit. In December 1982 the authorities enacted a discrete devaluation of 8 percent; the peseta was allowed to depreciate further under market pressure in early 1983.

The depreciation boosted exports noticeably, but output was kept on a moderate growth path by a sharp tightening of monetary policy. Fiscal policy was roughly neutral in 1983 and 1984. (IMF RED July 1984, pp. 36-42) Inflation resumed its downward trajectory.

Bottom line: The crash reflected a deliberate government policy to unwind the cumulative real appreciation associated with higher inflation in Spain than in its trading partners. Exports were strongly stimulated. Macroeconomic policy tightened to fight inflation.

Greece 1983Q1

Ongoing high Greek inflation, at more than 20 percent per year, pushed up the real exchange rate in 1982 and exacerbated the economic slump that began in 1981. (See Figure 4.) To fight inflation, the authorities tightened fiscal policy, and the public sector deficit declined slightly between 1981 and 1983, despite stagnant GDP. At the time, fiscal policy was viewed as very tight. (IMF ART April 1985, p. 2) Monetary policy remained loose, however, with negative real interest rates. To offset the loss of competitiveness from high inflation, the authorities devalued the currency 16 percent in January 1983.

As the decline in the real exchange rate was rather modest, exports benefited only a little. Inflation remained high and the economy grew slowly. Real equity prices continued their steep decline.

Bottom line: The crash was a policy move designed to offset a real appreciation caused by high domestic inflation. Economic effects were minor.

Sweden 1983Q1

In the early 1980s, Sweden experienced several years of slow GDP growth, rising unemployment, and a large current account deficit. (See Figure 9.) Inflation was moderately high. Sweden had pegged its exchange rate to a basket of currencies. On the advice of the IMF, Sweden devalued its currency by 10 percent in late 1981.¹⁹ In October 1982, a newly elected social democratic government devalued the krona by a further 16 percent. The devaluation first met the crash criteria in 1983Q1.

In the two years following the devaluation, exports grew strongly, GDP growth picked up, inflation remained roughly unchanged, and the current account deficit narrowed. According to the IMF, the government took advantage of the stimulus from the devaluation to slash its budget deficit (IMF ART July 1984, p. 15) and the fiscal balance rose from -6.5 percent in 1982 to -3 percent in 1984. The central bank maintained real interest rates in positive territory and increased them further in late 1984 when inflation did not decline as much as targeted.²⁰ Bond yields fell modestly during and after the crash. Real equity prices jumped up with and immediately after the crash.

Bottom line: The crash was a policy move to stimulate the weak economy and narrow the current account deficit. It had the intended effect of boosting net exports and GDP with little effect on inflation.

New Zealand 1984Q3

In the 1980s New Zealand experienced stop-go macro policies that alternated between fighting inflation and spurring growth. Interest rates were raised in 1981-82 to fight inflation. (See Figure 6.) Inflation gradually fell in 1982-83, but GDP growth was lackluster and unemployment rose to a post-war high. The central bank cut interest rates in 1983, in response to rising unemployment. However, policymakers appear to have underestimated the NAIRU and inflation began to rise steeply in 1984. The current account deficit widened on average in 1983 and 1984.

In July 1984, a new government took office with a radical strategy to deregulate the economy and to fight inflation through tight monetary policy and fiscal consolidation. One of the first policy steps, however, was to devalue the currency 20 percent in July 1984 in order to narrow the current account deficit. The currency was floated in March 1985. According to the IMF, the budget deficit was reduced from 9 percent of GDP in fiscal year 1983/84 to 4 percent in fiscal year 1985/86. (IMF RED June 1986, p. 3) The central bank raised interest rates sharply in late 1984 and 1985.

The jump in inflation coincided with the currency crash in mid-1984, and the crash undoubtedly contributed to inflation, but the previous loose macroeconomic policies had almost surely guaranteed a substantial rise in inflation in any event. GDP stagnated in 1985 and 1986 as the new government's tight macro policies reduced domestic demand. Nonagricultural exports grew strongly, but agricultural exports were damped by falling world prices, reflecting farm subsidies in major trading partners. (IMF RED June 1986, pp. 69-70) Inflation remained stubbornly high owing to "adjustments following the end of the wage-price freeze ... which had been imposed in June 1982 and terminated in February 1984" according to the IMF. (IMF RED June 1986, p. 13) Further price pressures in 1985 owed to increases in public-sector prices and indirect taxes that were part of the fiscal contraction. Bond yields soared with the crash and the rise in inflation. Real equity prices fell slightly with the crash but then stabilized and even began to increase sharply in 1986, most likely on optimism about the government's ongoing economic reforms.

Bottom line: The crash reflected a deliberate policy to reduce the large current account deficit that resulted from deteriorating terms of trade and inflationary macroeconomic policies. Despite a moderate stimulus to exports, tight macroeconomic policies after the crash held down GDP growth and eventually succeeded in taming inflation.

Australia 1985Q2

According to the IMF, the primary causes of the currency crash of 1985 were market concerns about the large and growing current account deficit and "uncertainties about monetary conditions," which likely reflects a lack of anti-inflationary credibility. (RED February 1986, p. 2)

After a deep recession in 1982-83, four-quarter inflation declined to a low of 4 percent by the end of 1984 even as the Australian economy began to experience a strong recovery. (See Figure 2.) The recovery was spurred in part by a rapid widening of the fiscal deficit, which may have raised concerns about future inflation, despite a fairly tight monetary policy. The rapid recovery in 1984 also contributed to a widening current account deficit. The combination of inflation fears and a growing current account deficit sparked a sharp depreciation in early 1985. Over the remainder of 1985 and 1986, Australia experienced a substantial drop in the world prices of its main export commodities, which damped the stimulative effect of the crash on net exports. (IMF ART February 1987, p. 6) GDP growth was moderate in 1985 and 1986, but the rapid growth of 1984 probably put Australian output above potential, and inflation steadily increased. Monetary and fiscal policies were fairly tight in 1985 and 1986, but some of this restraint was offset by significant further currency depreciation in 1986, and policies in the end were not tight enough to stabilize inflation. Nevertheless, bond yields rose only modestly and real equity prices moved up strongly.

Bottom line: A combination of inflationary policies and a large current account deficit appear to have caused the crash. The crash had a subdued effect on net exports because of commodity price decline. Macroeconomic policies were not sufficiently tight after the crash, given that output was probably above potential, and inflation gradually intensified.

Greece 1985Q4

According to the IMF, Greek macroeconomic policies eased in early 1985 ahead of parliamentary elections. Inflation was already high and the current account deeply in deficit. By late 1985 the results were not surprising: "Faced with a marked widening of the current account deficit ... an acceleration of inflation ... and a widening fiscal deficit ... the authorities announced a comprehensive economic stabilization program in October 1985" which included a 15 percent currency devaluation. (IMF RED August 1987, p. 1) The package included significantly tighter fiscal policy, some liberalization and de-indexation of the labor market (p. 9), and a temporary tax on imports (p. 104).

The depreciation boosted net exports and the current account deficit narrowed dramatically from about 7 percent of GDP in 1985 to less than 4 percent of GDP in 1986.²¹ (See Figure 4.) GDP stagnated in 1986 and 1987 under the influence of the stabilization program. Inflation declined somewhat but remained high, partly reflecting indirect tax increases.²² Real equity prices rose strongly in the quarters after the crash as confidence in the government's adjustment program increased.

Bottom line: The crash was a deliberate policy to reduce the current account deficit. The authorities tightened other policies to help reduce inflation and growth was lackluster.

United States 1986Q3

The U.S. economy grew at a moderate pace in 1985 and 1986 and inflation was well under control. (See Figure 11.) However, tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy had engendered a sustained appreciation of the dollar from late 1980 through early 1985. The last year or so of this appreciation probably reflected a dollar bubble.²³ As the U.S. current account headed for a post-war record deficit, the sustainability of the strong dollar came into doubt. The dollar peaked in February 1985 and began to depreciate almost continuously thereafter. The Plaza Agreement of September 1985 may have helped to hasten the decline through joint foreign exchange intervention against the dollar by G-7 countries. The depreciation lasted about three years with few pauses from early 1985 through early 1988. The crash criteria were reached in 1986Q3.

The depreciation provided a strong and lasting boost to exports. By 1988, the current account deficit began to shrink. Inflation rose modestly after the crash but remained below 4 percent. Output continued to grow robustly. Bond yields fell more than 4 percentage points from the dollar's peak in early 1985 through early 1987, before backing up modestly in late 1987. Real equity prices rose with and immediately after the crash.²⁴

Bottom line: Market fears about current account sustainability and coordinated official exchange rate intervention helped to cause the crash. The crash boosted net exports. Both growth and inflation were steady.

Finland 1992Q4

Finland began a serious recession in 1990, owing to monetary tightening to fight inflation, the collapse of exports to the Soviet Union, the bursting of the late 1980s asset bubble, and a banking crisis. (IMF RED July 1993, pp. 1-2) Markets doubted the credibility of the central bank's exchange rate peg in the face of the weak economy and the central bank was forced to raise interest rates and deplete its foreign exchange reserves to defend the peg. (See Figure 3.) The currency was devalued in November 1991 and floated (with a large depreciation) in September 1992. Monetary policy, which had been tight while defending the currency peg, loosened markedly in late 1992.

The economy began to recover in the second half of 1993. Inflation declined during the recession years and stayed generally low, but volatile, during the recovery. Exports made a very large contribution to recovery in 1993 and 1994. Bond yields fell sharply after the crash and real equity prices rose strongly.

Bottom line: The crash was caused by market concerns about an overvalued exchange rate in the face of a major recession. The combination of the crash and an easing of monetary policy spurred strong growth after a modest lag. Inflation remained low.

Italy 1993Q1

The Maastricht treaty of 1992 focused market attention on the convergence criteria for joining the European Economic and Monetary Union by the end of the decade. Inflation and fiscal deficits in Italy were well in excess of the limits specified by Maastricht, but the Italian government had held the exchange rate steady against the Deutschemark for several years. With inflation above that of its trading partners, Italy's real effective exchange rate had marched upward throughout the previous decade, restraining real net exports. (See Figure 5.)

Meanwhile, the unification of Germany in 1990 created a boom in German domestic demand that led the Bundesbank to tighten monetary policy gradually but significantly. In part because of the strong real exchange value of the lira, Italian exporters benefited relatively little from the German boom, while the rest of the Italian economy suffered from the high interest rates that were required to defend the exchange rate peg.²⁵ As the Italian economy slumped, financial markets increasingly doubted the government's resolve to maintain the exchange rate parity. Speculative attacks forced the exit of the lira from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in September 1992. The criteria for a currency crash were reached in the first quarter of 1993.

Policy interest rates were eased substantially in 1993, but the economy continued to contract for most of the year, particularly as the government felt unable to use countercyclical fiscal stimulus in light of the already excessive budget deficit.²⁶ Exports did expand strongly in 1993 and 1994, providing a significant backstop to the weak economy. Inflation declined during 1992 and held steady in 1993 and 1994. Bond yields fell, and real equity prices moved up, with and immediately after the crash.

Sweden 1993Q1

Sweden's economy overheated in the late 1980s, the aftermath of financial liberalization that sparked a real estate boom. (IMF RED August 1993, p.1) The bust hit in 1990 and it intensified in 1991 and 1992 as a banking crisis emerged and the global economy slowed down. Markets doubted the credibility of the central bank's exchange rate target in the face of prolonged economic weakness. After raising interest rates sharply in mid-1992 to defend the krona, the central bank decided to let the krona float in November. (See Figure 9.) The criteria for a currency crash were reached in 1993Q1.

Both monetary and fiscal policies loosened markedly in 1993.²⁷ GDP growth turned positive in 1993Q2 with a large boost from net exports. Inflation, which had dropped sharply in 1992, rebounded only partially in 1993 and remained moderate in 1994. Bond yields fell and real equity prices rose strongly in 1993.

Bottom line: The crash was caused by market concerns about an overvalued exchange rate in the face of a recession. The combination of the crash and an easing of monetary and fiscal policies spurred strong growth after a brief lag. Inflation remained low.

Spain 1993Q3

Inflation in Spain was well in excess of that in Germany and France for most of the 1980s. The Spanish government's policy of holding the exchange rate steady against the Deutschemark meant that Spain's real effective exchange rate had marched upward for many years, restraining real net exports. (See Figure 8.)

Meanwhile, the unification of Germany in 1990 created a boom in German domestic demand that led the Bundesbank to tighten monetary policy gradually but significantly. In part because of the strong real exchange value of the peseta, Spanish exporters benefited relatively little from the German boom, while the rest of the Spanish economy suffered from the high interest rates that were required to defend the exchange rate peg. As the Spanish economy slumped, financial markets increasingly doubted the government's resolve to maintain the exchange rate parity. Speculative attacks forced a series of devaluations of the peseta within the European ERM in September 1992, November 1992, and May 1993. The criteria for a currency crash were reached in the third quarter of 1993.

In August 1993 the ERM bands were widened, which "increased the freedom to adapt monetary policy to the circumstances of the domestic economy." (IMF RED January 1994, p. 25) Policy interest rates were eased substantially in 1993, and fiscal policy also was eased. Exports expanded strongly in late 1993 and 1994. GDP began to recover in 1993Q4. Inflation declined during 1992 and held steady in 1993 and 1994. Bond yields fell, and real equity prices moved up, with and immediately after the crash.

8. Conclusions

Currency crashes in industrial countries have always been associated with at least one of the following causal factors:

Inflationary macroeconomic policies that put upward pressure on all prices, including the price of foreign currency.
Weak aggregate demand and rising unemployment that encourage policymakers to stimulate growth through expansionary monetary policy, including devaluation in the case of a fixed exchange rate.
Large capital outflows or current account deficits that run into financing difficulties. In some cases, these deficits may reflect either of the above forces, but they may also reflect exogenous shifts in the terms of trade or in financial market sentiment.

The consequences of currency crashes depend critically on the causes. Poor outcomes have occurred only after inflationary currency crashes. The responses of macroeconomic policymakers after inflationary currency crashes had important implications for GDP growth. Tighter policies to fight inflation generally reduced GDP in the short run. When authorities did not fight inflation, GDP growth generally held up in the near term. Bond yields usually rose and real equity prices usually fell during and immediately after inflationary currency crashes.

Non-inflationary currency crashes uniformly had good outcomes: GDP growth was average to above average, bond yields fell, and real equity prices rose.

References

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The Wall Street Journal, 2008. The Buck Stops Where? March 17, A16.

Wright, J., Gagnon, J., 2006. Predicting Sharp Depreciations in Industrial Country Exchange Rates. International Finance Discussion Papers no. 881, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC.

Table 1. Evidence of Causes of Currency Crashes

Episode	Excess Inflation	Current Account	Change in Unemp.	Factors Present: Inflation $^{1}$	Factors Present: Current Account	Factors Present: Unemployment
Italy 1973Q3	5.4	-2.0	1.5	I	c	u
New Zealand 1975Q4	3.3	-7.3	0.2	I	C
Italy 1976Q2	6.2	-1.1	0.6	I
United Kingdom 1976Q2	3.2	0.5	1.7	i		u
Portugal 1977Q1	11.8	-7.9	4.6	I	C	U
Spain 1977Q3	10.3	-3.6	1.5	I	c	u
Greece 1980Q2	7.6	-3.5	0.9	I	c
Portugal 1982Q3	11.8	-12.6	-0.5	I	C
Spain 1983Q1 $^{2}$	3.3	-2.5	3.5	I		U
Greece 1983Q1	11.8	-3.1	3.0	I	c	U
Sweden 1983Q1	0.0	-4.9	1.4		c	u
New Zealand 1984Q3	3.8	-7.6	1.2	I	C	u
Australia 1985Q2	-1.0	-4.2	-1.0	i	c
Greece 1985Q4	11.5	-7.7	0.0	I	C
United States 1986Q3	-2.8	-3.2	-0.3		c
Finland 1992Q4	-2.8	-4.1	8.9		c	U
Italy 1993Q1	0.5	-2.1	0.1			u
Sweden 1993Q1	-0.6	-1.9	5.1			U
Spain 1993Q3	1.1	-1.2	4.9			U
Crash Mean	4.4	-4.2	2.0
Sample Mean	0.0	-0.3	0.2
Sample Standard Deviation	3.3	4.7	1.7

Note: Excess inflation equals the annual inflation rate over the eight quarters centered on the start of the crash minus the average inflation rate in all 20 countries over the same period. Current account is in percent of GDP for the quarter before the start of the crash. Change in unemployment rate is measured over eight quarters ending in the quarter before the start of the crash. Bold entries differ from sample means by more than one standard deviation. Sample means and standard deviations are based on the entire sample period and all 20 countries.

1. I - inflation; C - current account; U - unemployment. Column lists factors that exceeded mean by more than one standard deviation in hypothesized direction. Factors in lower case were either close to the one standard deviation criterion or were supported by considerations discussed in the text.

2. For Spain in 1983, the current account is the average over the four quarters of 1982 because there were swings of more than 20 percentage points from quarter to quarter that year.

Table 2. Evidence on Consequences of Currency Crashes

Episode	Causal Factors	Change in Inflation	Change in Net Exports	GDP Growth	Change in GDP Growth	Change in Bond Yield	Change in Real Equity Price
Italy 1973Q3	I c u	7.5	2.2	0.9	-3.5	2.1	-18
New Zealand 1975Q4	I C	10.4	-0.1	-1.3	-8.3	2.1	2
Italy 1976Q2	I	-0.1	3.1	3.5	2.7	4.8	-42
United Kingdom 1976Q2	i u	-8.8	-0.1	3.1	1.5	0.8	-9
Portugal 1977Q1	I C U	3.8	1.6	3.8	0.6	5.8	.
Spain 1977Q3	I c u	-0.9	1.0	0.7	-2.4	1.9	-46
Greece 1980Q2	I c	6.2	-1.6	-2.6	-5.9	.	-34
Portugal 1982Q3	I C	5.1	6.2	-1.3	-3.2	3.6	.
Spain 1983Q1	I U	-2.9	2.0	2.0	1.3	1.7	8
Greece 1983Q1	I c U	-2.2	0.3	0.3	1.2	.	-52
Sweden 1983Q1	c u	0.8	2.0	3.7	2.1	-1.0	51
New Zealand 1984Q3	I C u	7.4	2.1	4.6	0.3	8.7	-4
Australia 1985Q2	i c	1.0	2.1	2.7	-3.0	0.4	26
Greece 1985Q4	I C	-4.0	1.0	-1.5	-4.7	2.4	31
United States 1986Q3	c	0.6	1.1	3.6	0.0	0.7	15
Finland 1992Q4	c U	0.4	4.0	2.0	7.6	-4.7	74
Italy 1993Q1	u	-1.5	3.3	2.3	1.3	-4.8	26
Sweden 1993Q1	U	-1.6	2.8	3.9	6.1	-3.1	54
Spain 1993Q3	U	-1.4	1.0	2.3	2.6	-1.5	21
Crash Mean		1.0	1.8	1.7	-0.2	1.2	6
Sample Mean		-0.4	0.1	2.6	-0.3	-0.1	3
Sample Std. Dev.		3.0	2.1	2.0	2.6	1.4	24

Note: Change in inflation is the difference between the annual inflation rate over the eight quarters after the start of the crash and the annual inflation rate over the eight quarters ending the quarter before the start of the crash. Change in net exports is the difference between net exports as a percent of real GDP seven quarters after the start of the crash and net exports in the quarter before the start of the crash. GDP growth is the annual rate for the eight quarters after the start of the crash. Change in GDP growth is the difference between the annual rate of GDP growth in the eight quarters after the start of the crash and GDP growth in the eight quarters ending in the quarter before the crash. Change in bond yield and change in real equity price are measured from the quarter before the start of the crash to the third quarter after the start of the crash. The real equity price is calculated using the GDP deflator. Sample means and standard deviations are based on the entire sample period and all 20 countries.

Table 3. Relating Causes to Consequences

	GDP Growth: Full	GDP Growth: Restricted	Change in GDP Growth: Full	Change in GDP Growth: Restricted	Change in Bond Yield: Full	Change in Bond Yield: Restricted	Change in Real Equity Price: Full	Change in Real Equity Price: Restricted
Constant	1.91*	2.69***	0.18	-1.12	-0.30	-0.54	-3.4	26.4***
Constant - Standard Errors	(1.04)	(.58)	(1.50)	(1.03)	(1.42)	(.88)	(12.7)	(8.1)
Lagged GDP Growth	0.30		-0.23
Lagged GDP Growth - Standard Errors	(.21)		(.30)
Excess Inflation	-0.22**	-0.22**	-0.16	-0.24*	0.36*	0.45***	-5.6***	-5.7***
Excess Inflation - Standard Errors	(.10)	(.09)	(.15)	(.13)	(.17)	(.14)	(1.2)	(1.4)
Current Account	0.08		0.22		-0.16		-5.9**
Current Account - Standard Errors	(.16)		(.23)		(.26)		(2.5)
Change in Unemp.	0.32 (0.23)		0.83**	1.03***	-0.29		4.5*
Change in Unemp. - Standard Errors	(.23)		(.33)	(.26)	(.29)		(2.3)
R $^{2}$	.40	.27	.64	.60	.46	.40	.70	.53
No. Obs.	19	19	19	19	17	17	17	17

Note: This table presents OLS regressions of consequences, as defined in Table 2, on causes, as defined in Table 1. To control for potential dynamics, GDP growth over the eight quarters ending with the start of the crash are initially included in the regressions of GDP growth and the change in GDP growth after the onset of the crash. Restricted regressions reflect the outcome of sequentially testing down and eliminating variables that are not significant at the 10 percent level; for the change in real equity price, all variables are significant at the 10 percent level, so the restricted regression applies a 5 percent criterion. In the equity price regression, the current account is not significant at the 5 percent level when the unemployment rate is dropped. *, **, and *** denote significance at the 10, 5, and 1 percent levels, respectively. Values in parentheses represent standard errors.

Figure 1. Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (4-Quarter Percent Change)

Data for Figure 1 immediately follows

Data for Figure 1

TIME	AL	BE	CA	DK	FI	FR	GE	GC	IR	IT	JP	NL	NZ	NO	PT	SP	SD	SZ	UK	US
1971q1	0.29027	-0.62945	6.174667	-0.35034	-0.52117	-0.05161	1.007974	-0.65809	-0.08036	0.422904	-0.1255	0.50964	-0.25391	-0.39314	-0.65406	-0.23286	-0.2277	-0.4373	-0.12684	-1.26729
1971q2	0.401372	-1.006	4.617631	-0.69106	-0.81155	-0.86911	1.371728	-0.92796	-0.06653	0.050129	0.16349	0.693048	-0.40997	-0.31843	-0.63781	-0.62711	-0.11159	2.476597	-0.12926	-1.12707
1971q3	1.292256	-0.54055	0.393431	-1.13163	-1.71006	-2.42147	4.565161	-2.54665	0.094983	-1.13289	2.400464	0.721888	-0.37805	-0.0347	-0.60603	-1.95316	-0.79242	4.292075	0.024021	-1.04061
1971q4	1.047024	2.052483	0.339251	-1.13134	-3.93314	-4.60611	5.649728	-5.16253	0.163522	-2.74985	7.831288	2.747415	0.626453	0.109805	-0.2874	-2.56186	-0.54436	4.08771	0.032023	-4.11204
1972q1	-0.5011	3.044644	-1.96901	-1.52029	-6.93645	-0.37294	5.427493	-8.91439	-0.18368	-2.75174	12.37512	3.051007	-0.181	-0.76761	-3.72679	-2.30588	-0.42481	2.260076	-0.68253	-7.08603
1972q2	-0.82971	3.340756	-0.08446	-1.08235	-6.79864	1.461428	3.901744	-8.88374	-0.34389	-1.83514	13.31072	2.093052	-0.30233	0.055072	-3.41705	-0.70241	0.332492	-0.15091	-0.78914	-7.56777
1972q3	-0.8646	3.628526	1.038838	0.470046	-5.50914	3.693619	0.81643	-6.96765	-4.49498	-0.44552	12.35425	1.910839	-0.22699	0.780653	-2.25657	2.521606	1.965663	0.073965	-6.43851	-6.9249
1972q4	0.209567	1.379335	0.338114	1.889364	-3.21631	5.737319	-0.09781	-3.54771	-6.64213	0.817191	7.024558	-0.20077	-0.89202	0.406394	-2.01573	3.968902	1.961236	1.200971	-9.37364	-3.23966
1973q1	8.863753	1.287482	-0.71179	3.523834	-0.82917	2.947906	2.481671	-4.00799	-8.26404	-2.8578	7.036782	1.045764	1.876706	2.94503	0.229618	3.903376	0.63936	7.865229	-11.6576	-3.84804
1973q2	10.41406	2.784192	-3.97988	5.314087	-0.91237	4.762992	7.482492	-8.60565	-8.20307	-11.8948	8.68647	2.467998	1.43126	5.323873	0.389336	2.220873	-0.26818	11.34575	-11.9756	-7.61144
1973q3	9.51967	2.638386	-5.84085	6.101111	-2.43376	4.393343	16.83464	-14.792	-8.77255	-15.2099	4.585332	4.955091	3.348155	4.926831	1.270403	-3.64216	-0.37769	10.99016	-13.3263	-10.0801
1973q4	14.07441	0.694833	-4.0337	3.627812	-0.90202	3.121249	13.96821	-8.10753	-7.35102	-14.1542	2.405118	7.489556	9.805845	6.521961	-1.46478	-0.24403	-2.33341	7.814146	-11.0608	-8.0202
1974q1	9.637553	-0.50458	1.694774	-0.00965	1.618273	-4.3956	11.11249	-0.66141	-5.44592	-13.9468	-5.07001	5.250094	7.771083	6.938009	-1.52988	3.27953	-3.1143	6.180708	-7.81095	-0.57791
1974q2	5.487413	1.465843	3.914375	1.211297	2.681827	-10.8932	10.42976	-0.05457	-4.34359	-8.88105	-6.09146	7.032701	9.460794	5.775665	-0.81936	1.348303	0.368086	5.444161	-6.19524	0.356372
1974q3	7.829095	1.308814	4.453309	-0.23641	4.484107	-7.07501	-2.10402	8.180908	0.58052	-6.67388	-8.56259	4.890666	7.130478	5.815034	-3.71705	7.682887	-0.54851	5.457073	1.202615	5.406538
1974q4	-9.16514	3.771317	2.438832	1.91826	2.134776	-3.8379	3.115686	-0.5233	-0.37046	-11.6911	-7.97787	3.372661	-6.14934	4.045436	-1.55664	2.704648	2.576572	14.97985	-0.51196	2.68273
1975q1	-12.2196	6.414984	-3.1425	5.562286	1.088752	5.982349	6.708297	-8.88568	-2.37357	-9.49213	-4.47238	6.341865	-5.81898	5.213382	-2.57581	-4.43477	7.561686	16.40508	-3.93343	-3.0656
1975q2	-9.59995	2.636689	-5.80728	3.717147	-0.67028	14.67755	1.064078	-5.27752	-5.38891	-4.4718	-5.47403	4.100473	-7.60798	4.411114	-4.23758	-2.36621	5.567927	12.29869	-7.97841	0.836713
1975q3	-11.5741	0.291546	-4.59369	1.958279	-1.00451	9.86533	1.617199	-12.2226	-7.97217	-3.21271	1.414006	1.187235	-17.5454	0.864765	-3.95498	-2.58222	2.901556	10.87281	-11.1668	1.973407
1975q4	-0.42762	-1.52023	-2.1515	0.135402	-0.93149	8.40282	-0.66212	-13.6557	-8.30845	-0.13124	1.7013	0.53523	-19.0279	1.091301	-4.26919	-1.89541	0.749897	6.538851	-11.3523	3.235265
1976q1	-1.00301	-2.40743	2.392817	-1.14088	0.180703	4.425225	-0.64741	-7.03836	-7.63837	-9.52092	2.172164	-0.94732	-19.384	-0.97097	-2.90671	-3.46345	-0.78712	5.842089	-10.1267	5.485415
1976q2	-1.28591	0.941515	6.758203	1.661432	2.601329	-1.75325	4.490961	-5.60938	-11.5706	-21.4778	4.027393	-0.09843	-21.6633	0.71211	-6.91265	-5.76943	-0.19622	13.02015	-15.4559	5.744957
1976q3	-0.98162	3.531892	6.241356	2.92222	1.866532	-6.03334	8.065752	-2.19884	-10.6776	-19.2076	5.263516	3.604622	-12.1192	3.635306	-9.01424	-8.4432	2.639907	13.16072	-14.6379	1.288975
1976q4	-6.43337	9.077407	2.924466	5.884665	2.715432	-8.88799	12.9729	-1.04433	-14.4933	-22.7518	5.033132	7.926284	-7.12683	7.313297	-10.0456	-9.11832	7.095371	11.14278	-20.2583	0.456486
1977q1	-13.8861	7.769577	-3.56007	5.316337	1.170143	-8.55707	10.35564	-3.12931	-11.2114	-14.667	6.851766	7.288636	-5.78064	5.749068	-17.9966	-4.83616	4.810468	3.401255	-15.635	0.194777
1977q2	-13.0585	6.230017	-8.15689	-0.63621	-6.61374	-7.48137	7.564933	-3.62224	-5.16426	-4.9947	8.081198	7.2562	-2.83377	2.791626	-25.8482	-2.54276	-0.53173	-2.70136	-7.25982	-1.18066
1977q3	-13.6248	6.364358	-10.1293	-1.5754	-6.73726	-1.31114	8.555359	-1.89018	-3.0006	-7.96717	8.371982	5.490193	-2.3118	1.46745	-22.6272	-21.996	-5.22739	0.873081	-4.31579	-1.26633
1977q4	-9.03105	1.767275	-12.6368	-5.85084	-10.3272	-0.05435	5.20041	-1.37277	4.488477	-6.03127	15.9681	0.633658	0.579035	-4.43933	-26.6423	-22.9492	-16.5265	7.577031	6.185441	-3.92335
1978q1	-3.36542	4.794968	-10.691	-3.11664	-13.5705	-2.96349	7.825321	-5.55737	3.637736	-6.11572	14.7161	3.244101	0.001629	-5.29141	-22.0855	-23.0652	-16.9801	19.22237	4.684197	-6.67101
1978q2	-5.18809	2.877744	-9.98276	-0.35554	-10.9782	0.398346	6.196517	-7.82154	-0.33367	-5.51065	18.79892	2.483878	-1.66413	-8.32024	-17.9442	-22.5778	-12.8204	19.86784	-0.7779	-7.4271
1978q3	-8.24196	0.562591	-11.3059	-1.00537	-11.6285	0.024138	3.099411	-12.1147	0.30686	-6.86912	27.16327	0.86748	-3.01901	-8.8593	-25.7912	-0.27892	-8.93681	25.26717	-0.02607	-11.8394
1978q4	-8.56212	3.496855	-11.0488	3.176887	-7.91522	-0.18231	5.657408	-13.7439	-1.66771	-7.93042	20.28479	3.878335	-3.06208	-4.68731	-25.4264	4.760589	-2.18949	17.58108	-2.89249	-10.794
1979q1	-7.38451	1.245267	-9.19901	1.984335	-4.40887	3.375515	3.894451	-8.78616	-2.12709	-6.21599	12.89669	2.40674	-2.41448	-4.49931	-24.9619	7.677077	-1.34155	6.316839	-3.34172	-6.53823
1979q2	-5.68251	0.36555	-4.07843	-1.15901	0.630225	-1.16973	3.897725	-6.52509	1.7897	-5.0271	-1.90466	0.896864	0.435934	-1.3844	-19.3871	13.34873	-0.41716	5.169901	7.482786	-3.06117
1979q3	-1.5356	2.490231	-2.01646	-0.33229	2.824616	-1.79951	6.32163	-4.88669	0.601084	-3.04792	-15.598	2.569279	-2.58624	0.164337	-14.4299	8.713577	1.047797	-2.82902	10.8308	0.765312
1979q4	0.071675	0.773165	1.752792	-3.6082	4.455478	1.997991	5.331145	-4.83582	2.984053	-0.94727	-24.0276	1.222466	-3.55533	-0.71679	-11.9082	4.795138	1.936404	-1.63357	7.71588	4.208902
1980q1	1.389983	-0.44486	3.374926	-8.96296	4.554742	1.516826	4.035839	-8.58223	0.4198	0.126579	-19.1736	0.47158	-4.37089	1.765519	-6.54075	1.601244	2.307156	-0.57486	11.06355	3.922916
1980q2	2.59163	1.472582	-0.63743	-7.44667	5.143729	2.240355	3.238128	-16.2577	-0.6341	-2.75557	-6.08575	1.038716	-6.89211	2.564783	-2.19872	-8.31744	1.116688	-0.21605	8.12697	1.299803
1980q3	3.318608	0.953065	0.89919	-5.98673	4.22437	2.427762	1.745246	-16.6026	0.04912	-4.44288	0.423493	1.800268	-3.76125	2.861367	-0.93144	-9.82551	0.591534	-0.52229	6.101665	0.328261
1980q4	4.864774	-2.85657	-0.78709	-7.17003	2.676094	-2.47848	-4.69522	-13.3162	-7.25983	-5.84217	16.45469	-1.78379	-3.79313	2.189099	1.720889	-10.5	1.026583	-2.08241	14.33151	-0.06724
1981q1	6.061524	-5.00695	-2.02459	-6.01791	2.310705	-5.79455	-7.35264	-12.8434	-11.063	-9.18155	23.58657	-5.36732	-5.43369	0.684694	0.547384	-11.7013	1.481094	-3.11995	12.25713	1.621476
1981q2	7.713652	-6.11276	0.341513	-7.11715	1.302239	-8.34712	-6.6308	-6.85954	-11.8489	-11.5132	15.11883	-6.50572	-5.78097	1.633521	-0.24834	-7.14052	2.271959	-1.83973	6.744128	7.814887
1981q3	10.68546	-6.44541	0.688022	-7.65825	1.919412	-9.62434	-7.1673	-4.96196	-11.9522	-11.1896	9.047668	-7.39629	-7.06345	1.243074	0.072598	-4.29053	-0.3318	0.265833	-2.82589	14.95768
1981q4	6.699349	-3.25882	3.044554	-3.73411	1.984641	-8.54254	0.591532	-5.05387	-4.9328	-11.9202	2.880173	-0.56822	-7.78671	2.096939	-2.95782	-4.96274	-9.37964	10.78534	-9.00015	10.1544
1982q1	2.539061	-5.86824	2.618604	-3.66811	3.020244	-7.31377	2.973015	-3.93237	-1.9449	-9.74635	-4.95868	2.544858	-7.30223	4.326207	-5.06218	-3.48475	-9.74418	15.54018	-9.95949	10.69367
1982q2	-1.46454	-10.4007	-0.86391	-2.63331	3.154614	-5.73723	5.964619	-5.50508	-0.08053	-6.60653	-4.80359	5.573943	-6.87631	3.644171	-8.93282	-5.21975	-10.4168	11.3844	-7.45135	8.358856
1982q3	-8.67863	-10.6171	-0.58045	-4.36757	3.7071	-10.7743	7.42648	-8.09718	-1.31161	-6.1706	-6.24137	7.087574	-3.97645	-0.19592	-18.022	-4.51248	-7.51857	7.101322	1.220491	7.570379
1982q4	-8.03566	-11.4219	0.871463	-4.01508	-5.86809	-8.67242	4.756788	-8.76751	-3.00192	-3.77034	-5.54852	4.450682	-2.32571	-4.69908	-18.1018	-6.90724	-14.5443	-1.445	0.510399	11.91397
1983q1	-8.75902	-5.07079	0.523349	0.870709	-7.94628	-5.49113	7.442337	-23.0431	1.070534	-1.67259	4.951128	5.542797	-4.88179	-7.37457	-20.0631	-16.0002	-17.2043	1.101648	-11.346	5.734237
1983q2	-13.7834	-0.67669	2.713942	1.275627	-7.70109	-9.2763	5.381744	-17.915	-4.59302	-2.36571	8.585359	2.916548	-7.48789	-6.4711	-20.4142	-17.6204	-16.1325	4.709787	-5.63788	4.412112
1983q3	-7.73816	-1.9225	2.779928	0.554222	-7.91074	-4.97825	2.963729	-14.9972	-6.3054	-3.37326	12.44229	0.847584	-6.96394	-1.01885	-23.2882	-20.1117	-15.7477	7.190196	-5.67261	3.30559
1983q4	-2.83408	-2.72725	0.151334	-1.81932	1.156673	-6.62846	1.320166	-21.1533	-7.68995	-4.35544	15.15679	-1.29432	-6.87755	2.450477	-23.3486	-16.927	-0.44194	6.987464	-4.96929	2.015216
1984q1	2.585302	-4.08566	-0.4169	-4.11143	2.421674	-8.50587	-0.78156	-9.87931	-10.0924	-6.53553	8.386156	-2.68053	-3.56612	1.648146	-23.5501	-5.45989	2.59192	2.062169	3.340269	5.450855
1984q2	5.98163	-2.47687	-3.64678	-3.76979	2.306965	-3.15525	-0.86575	-16.1112	-4.13287	-4.78927	8.036938	-0.78342	0.103591	-0.34435	-22.5741	-0.83345	1.497352	-0.14171	-4.03291	4.189949
1984q3	0.137513	-0.73281	-4.60052	-1.90516	1.292114	-2.72635	-0.72603	-16.9485	-2.45717	-4.13702	4.898412	-1.33255	-18.6953	-3.57532	-12.5733	0.469019	1.590776	-3.8652	-7.24663	5.983901
1984q4	-0.00178	0.043191	-3.69164	-1.17489	1.175097	-2.36893	-1.8609	-14.5919	-1.07557	-3.61988	1.462967	-1.94585	-23.1799	-5.57535	-12.5446	2.397116	1.839107	-4.05962	-8.89671	8.194372
1985q1	-10.5808	0.331337	-3.56049	-0.41211	0.042482	-2.30797	-2.98162	-10.637	-0.81999	-3.33086	-1.88467	-2.60203	-23.2766	-4.18333	-11.6683	1.423037	0.584422	-6.90602	-10.946	12.27151
1985q2	-22.0509	-0.14362	-2.8986	0.261425	0.034191	-1.1013	-2.11274	-11.543	-0.94718	-5.1556	-1.87414	-2.15156	-23.4336	-3.367	-11.5242	-1.30187	-0.3467	-3.39148	-0.06256	9.156032
1985q3	-18.8733	0.892953	-3.67723	1.937883	0.574483	2.440849	1.616779	-14.7506	1.427857	-6.87728	2.637131	1.144817	4.156529	-0.98349	-11.3684	-1.92613	-1.1595	2.730782	5.226604	0.243355
1985q4	-29.667	2.582415	-7.92563	3.605234	0.973593	5.739748	5.232297	-30.6539	3.806156	-5.43567	12.44482	3.854548	10.64769	0.620939	-11.7886	-5.44161	-1.30546	4.059615	5.369543	-8.37819
1986q1	-23.462	4.034438	-10.6078	4.847229	0.987831	8.623937	9.233428	-33.6267	7.080118	-2.25066	20.60379	7.359864	0.864355	0.599938	-10.5903	-5.34223	-1.66054	8.304586	2.326426	-18.0326
1986q2	-11.8461	5.037491	-8.42914	5.030545	-1.13447	4.226121	9.003457	-29.8921	8.006391	-0.00947	27.89558	7.565499	3.806543	-4.7205	-9.56003	-4.50383	-1.39895	8.7094	-4.91579	-20.0348
1986q3	-29.0615	4.939618	-9.24993	5.029323	-2.96255	2.126719	9.493269	-27.8855	4.081234	4.480842	32.45904	7.997322	-15.8419	-9.35424	-9.86556	-2.00941	-2.83579	10.15414	-14.7917	-19.953
1986q4	-16.8659	4.989667	-5.3789	5.276704	-3.19476	1.24818	9.568433	-11.4689	1.326228	5.959913	17.65508	7.952786	-17.1107	-11.2401	-9.01599	-0.48359	-3.35337	7.80475	-17.6336	-13.6559
1987q1	-15.4232	5.626592	0.176247	6.058329	-1.4241	-0.26933	9.192493	-11.2645	-1.12412	3.384778	11.76423	7.490846	-3.76535	-11.3368	-9.57588	-3.12585	-2.31404	8.158115	-9.28339	-13.7387
1987q2	-10.1671	3.958727	-0.66005	5.04257	0.763018	1.961771	7.506028	-11.9985	-3.38986	1.221243	8.798713	6.031094	-4.67188	-4.77891	-9.36244	-2.96787	-1.22985	7.233331	-6.33975	-13.0142
1987q3	7.236055	2.651861	2.075196	1.940944	2.251177	1.353188	4.35815	-11.7955	-1.29993	-1.71353	-0.71235	3.426625	10.3836	0.789377	-7.52421	-0.58469	-0.69927	1.124344	-0.26985	-8.10164
1987q4	-3.31213	1.608297	1.039662	0.424885	2.867785	-0.17926	3.211076	-10.6163	-0.0842	-3.3172	8.239312	2.744577	11.28112	0.915313	-7.02616	3.253207	-1.18943	3.763533	8.053398	-13.2117
1988q1	-3.09977	-0.77998	1.683946	-1.4017	2.438692	-1.28764	0.230349	-8.94369	-1.00865	-3.75059	11.57399	0.682575	9.503591	0.881277	-6.36625	4.544577	-0.79403	2.754513	6.973993	-11.3261
1988q2	1.396819	-1.07296	5.442048	-1.96085	1.879862	-1.68155	-0.18677	-7.67926	-1.29698	-3.55901	7.96132	0.263501	9.130178	1.028952	-5.80255	5.701226	-0.35982	-0.83515	6.083061	-8.7078
1988q3	7.863159	-1.9974	6.961181	-1.41004	0.462577	-3.04338	-1.60629	-7.07412	-2.62156	-3.98593	8.106123	-1.51029	1.115767	-2.01818	-5.12483	1.412934	-0.06333	-2.51981	4.755954	-4.85982
1988q4	15.65949	-1.94245	7.604746	-2.5078	0.884278	-3.4478	-2.44581	-7.17752	-3.26494	-3.33825	7.258398	-2.20652	-6.09468	-0.80044	-4.20971	0.47337	1.081407	-4.7715	3.716651	-3.75665
1989q1	18.30555	-2.70444	7.000774	-4.95918	1.006993	-4.27798	-3.78438	-7.22322	-4.81888	-2.53287	1.35804	-3.52957	-8.79121	0.473635	-3.48223	4.947453	0.762392	-7.49946	3.385163	0.862563
1989q2	5.493056	-1.9202	5.193589	-4.26363	3.674406	-2.95261	-2.91843	-8.42209	-3.09946	-0.24507	-5.82877	-2.7063	-8.94608	-1.69393	-3.50155	2.91497	0.299502	-8.21728	-3.58613	5.341818
1989q3	-2.41299	-0.28959	3.7117	-2.26729	4.433999	-0.78505	-0.73049	-7.84136	-0.47394	2.626211	-6.29784	-0.38363	-6.91149	-0.36589	-3.51214	4.938983	0.699707	-3.62343	-4.0461	1.101754
1989q4	-2.77231	1.095197	4.755807	0.804155	3.262562	1.650846	1.659995	-7.59363	2.433756	2.041158	-12.64	1.33745	-1.72418	0.286606	-3.34179	3.758661	-0.31156	-3.9039	-9.54785	3.687324
1990q1	-8.15439	4.342538	1.226509	5.996531	3.502643	5.427398	5.710045	-7.76212	7.313145	3.341084	-16.638	4.585671	-0.34999	-0.4466	-3.30221	1.177799	-1.0125	0.554736	-9.66774	1.161999
1990q2	-1.20911	5.557439	1.4989	7.608001	0.654492	6.134539	6.053328	-9.05512	8.383342	3.857858	-16.2606	4.817927	-3.12573	-0.34766	-2.99774	5.353494	-1.13974	7.320083	-5.38528	-1.49368
1990q3	0.797022	5.379741	0.325849	6.830801	1.434536	6.133807	5.731533	-8.64021	6.728074	1.750898	-8.74221	4.254452	-1.49384	0.34194	-2.6591	5.822513	-1.95882	7.957141	2.779917	-6.32461
1990q4	-7.88957	4.150373	-2.71754	4.788351	1.119815	4.736997	3.931473	-9.79042	4.632432	0.947159	1.732513	2.897099	-4.04969	0.834013	-0.67012	4.219315	-1.86308	8.244836	6.752178	-9.27006
1991q1	-4.08076	2.024867	-0.03785	1.197342	-0.84416	0.800396	1.235224	-11.9122	1.048614	-0.11574	6.017467	0.783256	-4.74374	0.132089	0.112543	4.186955	-0.79971	5.455359	6.251926	-6.82734
1991q2	-1.9095	-1.16539	1.197906	-2.48681	-1.99163	-2.74462	-2.19154	-12.6297	-3.37806	-2.80901	12.63629	-1.84562	-1.09359	-2.89981	0.008936	-0.72009	-1.06433	-0.77698	3.227459	-2.33003
1991q3	-1.60308	-1.25088	1.644974	-2.85558	-4.89781	-3.42278	-2.12805	-13.0819	-2.50074	-2.67903	10.04942	-1.5515	-4.0386	-3.25333	2.097731	-2.73051	-1.25622	-5.87665	-3.82371	1.876656
1991q4	2.942439	-0.62766	3.429737	-2.39058	-8.90313	-2.91346	-1.54772	-11.1701	-1.70323	-1.20812	4.487869	-1.08133	-6.10927	-2.29061	0.673067	-1.29478	0.735492	-5.57821	-3.45082	2.475506
1992q1	-2.06648	-0.59168	-1.32557	-1.74636	-13.7786	-1.12699	-1.1812	-8.62895	-0.94922	-1.21977	6.564735	-0.71408	-7.88617	-1.69429	1.873705	-1.81876	1.201168	-6.27962	-3.54369	1.513873
1992q2	-4.72555	1.35404	-5.36546	1.076682	-12.8451	2.607363	2.22014	-7.17796	1.992681	0.170542	3.605253	1.663213	-10.5545	1.54262	5.115175	0.188988	1.641101	-5.59642	0.775264	-3.30722
1992q3	-13.4519	3.347427	-7.90312	4.261456	-11.7325	5.294042	5.288329	-8.11099	5.19965	0.388172	2.776565	3.968303	-10.0393	3.259322	2.918356	0.193168	4.343679	2.367992	0.242658	-7.28635
1992q4	-11.733	4.239576	-10.8928	5.765396	-16.9815	6.322977	5.550535	-9.2853	6.229453	-12.1924	5.958317	4.5524	-4.18329	0.326543	3.415645	-7.45324	-4.4684	2.989458	-12.8258	1.234446
1993q1	-6.89707	4.336221	-6.15035	7.29156	-19.5401	6.172809	5.585144	-9.16621	0.266461	-20.2041	10.01213	4.528911	-0.88475	-1.42901	0.87347	-7.35554	-19.3319	2.012791	-13.9499	3.29267
1993q2	-9.72185	3.89098	-6.36346	6.427237	-18.0775	5.109376	4.595513	-8.41877	-3.25526	-18.8373	20.46553	4.131546	1.176854	-2.18754	-4.85028	-13.2671	-20.3965	5.13428	-13.6683	-0.08914
1993q3	-5.77262	-0.76648	-6.53053	-0.40896	-17.5877	-0.30039	1.189848	-9.15691	-10.7459	-20.4359	25.70168	1.552117	6.019971	-5.61304	-9.8342	-19.1929	-26.7278	1.929669	-11.1585	5.417349
1993q4	-4.14203	-3.42153	-4.31622	-1.55776	-6.35086	-1.86957	-0.30461	-8.37247	-12.5058	-12.1086	17.67336	0.198533	6.419461	-3.9495	-11.1318	-12.2114	-20.7762	2.448164	1.746684	2.107266
1994q1	1.103351	-1.99646	-6.39812	-3.03588	5.49492	-1.73913	-2.47294	-8.21391	-5.54979	-5.47604	13.63339	-1.67822	7.259838	-3.73678	-10.0362	-15.2658	-3.44856	7.026639	3.712243	-0.01507
1994q2	3.41921	-0.22764	-8.54561	-2.12445	4.241887	-1.51536	-0.502	-8.33281	-1.13584	-4.28003	7.626646	-0.29341	5.972885	-2.62211	-7.6381	-9.12416	-3.04139	6.011437	-0.15098	1.35176
1994q3	5.853751	3.947903	-6.5072	3.543336	7.751667	3.503172	1.927311	-5.88906	3.834768	-4.99643	3.548469	1.730833	3.720148	0.511753	0.160119	-1.48486	-1.05522	6.548182	-2.27192	-3.13686
1994q4	6.824866	4.733236	-5.09426	2.534022	12.26472	2.816116	1.50789	-5.28409	3.449594	-3.62929	5.204933	1.245331	4.981394	0.792418	1.535899	-1.67462	3.527525	5.223907	-0.99833	-5.21048
1995q1	-1.44555	5.091769	-7.28566	3.632767	10.52976	3.353803	6.341962	-3.52906	1.700164	-7.92647	6.479492	5.106416	5.203062	3.798666	2.924038	-2.27835	-1.61573	5.764598	-3.46502	-6.40489
1995q2	-9.39891	5.625466	-2.57208	6.224617	12.69555	4.176792	7.104451	-1.67831	1.150538	-16.7689	14.33306	5.959236	6.14451	3.597183	3.616941	-0.86673	-4.78135	8.677085	-5.23214	-10.565
1995q3	-3.58672	3.14209	-0.07117	4.520211	11.62747	2.992475	3.895908	-2.34647	1.182124	-8.65234	2.62821	3.287999	6.764055	2.722777	1.129179	-0.10219	1.210852	5.197622	-3.94971	-4.14803
1995q4	-2.40037	3.39167	0.409631	4.187603	6.013172	3.397983	4.383326	-2.85012	0.3592	-5.64315	-4.80336	3.63698	4.424209	2.349463	0.595991	0.971043	5.800182	7.803786	-5.93911	-1.52785
1996q1	2.672814	0.331198	3.364088	2.069041	0.443274	2.045272	0.18193	-3.99433	1.129228	3.655174	-10.0158	0.428687	6.438559	0.542939	-0.59854	4.702243	8.214006	3.955124	-3.87933	1.550174
1996q2	15.70714	-3.10747	3.167212	-2.67265	-4.50287	0.323229	-3.66876	-2.4264	1.827057	13.58577	-21.7701	-2.98668	6.5588	-0.24982	-1.11709	1.539707	13.9765	-1.84822	0.876033	8.313493
1996q3	10.21613	-1.95483	0.426291	-2.02768	-2.93976	-0.41173	-2.03139	-0.98193	2.44273	9.252553	-13.6949	-1.90875	6.662141	-0.38094	-0.18317	-0.56087	10.95339	-0.64615	1.694852	5.083429
1996q4	9.091374	-3.90091	1.669451	-3.03224	-3.6645	-1.64661	-4.17824	0.196157	4.377474	9.388533	-8.89294	-3.96696	9.121768	0.474962	0.465579	-2.04317	3.33976	-7.74657	8.977811	3.969157
1997q1	7.931771	-5.04655	2.869213	-3.5946	-1.4622	-3.42104	-5.26913	0.198384	5.156232	4.200134	-9.99968	-5.49845	7.43904	3.693556	-0.20862	-4.97979	-1.63219	-11.7086	14.49227	6.324266
1997q2	2.088512	-4.42702	0.473569	-2.40533	-0.87136	-3.85225	-4.52746	-2.99512	1.174071	-0.11245	-6.19182	-5.03852	6.29227	-0.31239	-0.75066	-4.63224	-6.35453	-7.47043	15.71425	6.626096
1997q3	-0.19133	-6.52597	1.595274	-4.82683	-5.46352	-5.97836	-7.55299	-4.18911	-1.21102	-2.06	-1.40084	-7.46067	0.074465	-2.82509	-3.37183	-5.70232	-5.13204	-7.82791	17.20859	8.176549
1997q4	-5.37611	-3.60143	-1.19739	-2.52037	-4.04441	-2.73847	-3.92718	-2.01384	-3.54143	-1.78364	-2.13581	-4.25195	-4.04889	-0.05504	-3.43362	-3.39447	-3.68216	-0.6279	12.22441	10.24552
1998q1	-6.66979	-1.6625	-2.25085	-1.05755	-3.0398	-0.76841	-1.50761	-2.51588	-8.71847	-0.94843	4.703728	-1.91146	-9.35836	-5.16257	-2.99626	-1.4596	-0.61382	5.233065	9.531021	10.2137
1998q2	-11.7267	0.034524	-1.63495	0.015749	-0.60987	1.044553	0.770998	-7.02176	-3.77162	0.638682	-5.25648	0.092731	-15.4334	-1.34101	-1.51526	-0.23339	3.697404	1.786112	6.914432	9.400784
1998q3	-13.0495	2.824723	-6.67865	3.3742	2.297608	4.047534	4.322105	-3.81021	-1.57932	2.257219	-11.6563	3.261445	-14.226	-1.06313	1.067752	2.169213	-1.05814	2.351676	3.684692	9.222171
1998q4	-10.4715	2.175152	-9.51468	3.365978	2.322031	2.413172	2.828494	-5.25615	-0.55949	1.379799	5.380117	2.500706	-14.4212	-7.06131	1.204138	1.33363	-6.76901	2.163408	-1.74108	0.698649
1999q1	-8.68709	0.883218	-7.07006	1.454378	0.751714	0.731213	0.704545	-2.45093	0.915218	0.152976	6.191826	0.929461	-9.44424	-4.71447	0.429464	0.253177	-2.95919	-0.10189	-4.61214	-3.56864
1999q2	2.0082	-1.3935	-2.51365	-0.70468	-1.72329	-1.8344	-2.29974	1.926337	-3.84245	-2.16933	11.2703	-1.83657	-1.14441	-1.72271	-1.01984	-1.47279	-6.39806	-0.1103	-2.17647	-1.96567
1999q3	4.575399	-2.99113	0.588239	-2.88377	-4.02518	-3.59777	-4.40423	-1.60864	-6.09905	-3.72585	21.25109	-3.66362	-1.97547	-0.60019	-2.10805	-2.82765	-1.77571	-1.89524	-1.94939	-4.41545
1999q4	3.080214	-4.85066	4.788203	-5.34245	-6.37607	-5.5469	-6.43484	-3.82267	-8.48703	-5.17774	15.9298	-5.83998	-3.97033	1.064391	-3.2373	-4.20814	2.095728	-5.63783	3.626244	-0.66359
2000q1	0.826833	-4.82739	4.481128	-5.17086	-6.01433	-5.42739	-6.2199	-7.42264	-8.41209	-4.96281	11.05162	-5.91358	-7.02004	-0.05237	-3.20407	-4.06073	-0.31266	-5.93252	5.33428	0.678464
2000q2	-9.61643	-4.54372	-0.13652	-5.0736	-5.84758	-5.20701	-6.09006	-7.65863	-7.66839	-4.77767	15.25781	-5.62462	-10.4111	-5.4582	-2.97011	-3.86133	2.154589	-2.91794	1.76491	0.927065
2000q3	-8.94024	-4.41679	1.561875	-4.66022	-5.47658	-5.16283	-6.00995	-7.59244	-7.62683	-4.7374	8.93649	-5.4815	-12.5685	-3.86942	-2.86944	-3.7495	-1.63757	-1.39221	0.647272	3.596883
2000q4	-11.3818	-4.15922	-0.90761	-4.06739	-4.92195	-4.96209	-5.72846	-6.91312	-7.36943	-4.5036	1.419594	-5.16518	-12.737	-2.82943	-2.64128	-3.48672	-4.4843	0.62042	-0.13707	8.751641
2001q1	-11.1595	-0.15118	-2.85757	0.193563	0.163516	-0.43298	-0.51353	-2.15578	-0.47224	-0.3218	-5.22452	-0.26208	-5.76879	-0.60763	0.019808	-0.07245	-6.09914	4.388278	-3.82092	7.443558
2001q2	-6.54357	0.053268	-1.61229	0.820671	0.707326	-0.13988	-0.05991	-0.72135	-0.38311	-0.00998	-8.68543	0.053254	-5.84467	3.591456	0.133154	0.143116	-10.1161	2.240529	-1.21465	8.474397
2001q3	-6.25183	1.118478	-2.41153	2.186963	2.100103	1.133004	1.429239	0.612647	1.449612	1.159205	-8.74118	1.417808	1.288808	3.779234	0.788966	1.018553	-10.3617	3.710886	0.293449	6.12853
2001q4	-1.12755	2.132601	-2.5888	2.874913	3.151127	2.320319	2.748691	2.052976	3.349838	2.18137	-10.7222	2.637352	4.715471	4.449825	1.410513	1.824684	-7.45032	5.279892	-0.57034	3.63183
2002q1	2.173734	-0.62026	-2.64181	-0.19028	-0.54061	-0.74239	-0.80999	-0.34941	-1.38391	-0.65002	-8.52358	-0.72098	2.68281	4.562564	-0.43012	-0.48873	-2.68804	3.468959	2.194549	5.951831
2002q2	5.703039	1.365149	-1.33283	1.321435	1.474848	1.508311	1.716607	1.136431	2.466003	1.332799	-5.47847	1.663021	9.130902	7.954194	0.778729	1.081696	0.893939	5.900665	-0.49612	-1.21406
2002q3	1.505125	1.914754	-3.04074	1.444777	1.883075	2.153654	2.528061	1.546616	3.679881	1.915625	-2.97424	2.341828	6.779156	9.687614	1.065332	1.469476	3.850188	5.192695	0.137992	-4.77558
2002q4	3.296923	2.191506	-1.22487	1.489198	2.091769	2.51294	3.014982	2.011675	4.14925	2.280252	-4.21044	2.710773	12.21473	10.37455	1.227492	1.730285	6.326761	3.103265	0.623852	-5.27952
2003q1	2.713677	4.174295	1.554382	3.732186	4.493583	4.636644	5.508633	3.713763	7.874076	4.200773	1.812083	5.12322	14.66198	7.378868	2.469345	3.304719	4.304088	5.173388	-3.23079	-12.1032
2003q2	5.373044	4.982145	6.996926	4.872327	5.55848	5.558135	6.687192	4.756333	9.140071	5.107315	-1.70773	6.13654	9.891448	-0.61502	3.058866	4.061934	6.060143	1.991678	-4.78146	-12.1572
2003q3	12.74762	3.566341	10.33539	3.53876	4.031927	3.973694	4.798354	3.455969	6.478961	3.646284	-3.80124	4.389437	13.44505	-7.33119	2.27375	2.970804	5.208862	-1.60842	-5.44634	-8.19354
2003q4	15.33617	3.66641	14.16891	3.580619	4.072073	4.113647	4.969498	3.600843	6.907927	3.765299	4.228811	4.606079	10.42679	-8.11236	2.32125	3.017684	5.647423	-1.87504	-4.75906	-13.4324
2004q1	16.64363	2.653041	10.32367	2.570288	3.21432	3.097475	3.896673	2.827975	4.883975	2.881521	3.325046	3.479572	8.252552	-10.525	1.652241	2.151297	3.695476	-3.76456	2.429459	-11.8869
2004q2	5.984937	0.168524	1.107343	0.012443	0.341778	0.316254	0.500797	0.252473	0.394497	0.29612	4.144844	0.396223	3.724532	-3.67441	0.044805	0.05053	0.459808	-0.94667	6.132376	-5.53334
2004q3	2.161021	0.873614	3.441757	0.71155	1.132357	1.088	1.425431	1.064196	1.609906	1.02536	2.595371	1.274018	5.490801	-0.78989	0.451166	0.631572	1.25923	1.823961	5.902718	-6.52154
2004q4	0.475369	1.314849	5.74215	1.118502	1.490199	1.485922	1.81066	1.046409	2.407087	1.337867	-2.01143	1.646157	6.299904	1.626808	0.719634	0.969342	1.443018	2.97324	2.438644	-6.68034
2005q1	-2.22008	0.604022	5.914516	0.267887	0.382508	0.620332	0.653874	-0.10622	1.2767	0.473814	-1.56778	0.637652	2.924668	5.088069	0.289129	0.378559	1.61158	1.937781	-1.35226	-5.3045
2005q2	3.510579	0.600005	7.53165	0.294998	0.527302	0.607982	0.683011	-0.12931	1.183031	0.465782	-2.23429	0.644725	8.789633	3.241024	0.300354	0.378193	-0.23132	0.204049	-1.1245	-5.54096
2005q3	5.897028	-0.1119	8.257152	-0.51841	-0.24815	-0.21295	-0.32481	-0.75672	-0.21199	-0.28567	-3.1032	-0.27797	3.645253	6.341773	-0.12139	-0.16067	-2.87736	-1.41097	-2.26189	-2.64072
2005q4	3.09743	-1.41144	5.806694	-1.42347	-1.34263	-1.66237	-1.98744	-1.76706	-2.95721	-1.57143	-7.65562	-1.83006	3.72444	3.155468	-0.88275	-1.17129	-6.99285	-2.60708	0.023949	4.353861
2006q1	0.328058	-1.31752	8.004271	-1.37161	-1.34214	-1.56274	-1.89533	-1.66737	-2.73534	-1.46561	-8.40607	-1.74119	-2.09649	1.698768	-0.79633	-1.07369	-4.8393	-2.24949	-1.091	4.224787
2006q2	-1.36899	0.29093	10.69998	0.040302	0.323585	0.279597	0.320164	-0.04735	0.315458	0.244445	-6.80185	0.276773	-12.2361	3.195178	0.165762	0.226228	-0.89677	-1.00906	-1.34235	-1.19238
2006q3	-1.36526	0.913245	6.453151	0.660723	1.043551	1.063286	1.325963	0.621564	1.500664	0.980905	-7.07682	1.122424	-9.36263	-1.43029	0.529207	0.700654	2.666919	-0.33272	1.946679	-3.04861
2006q4	-0.20869	1.346871	1.494398	0.995465	1.439576	1.616657	2.017338	1.009981	2.46651	1.494667	-5.03779	1.68838	-6.73164	-3.81539	0.793872	1.027588	5.612428	-1.21438	3.30447	-4.91818
2007q1	2.879706	1.630422	-2.75686	1.451519	1.931232	1.982261	2.52713	1.664238	2.812982	1.876075	-5.88665	2.099023	0.85972	-0.17923	0.948507	1.295153	3.866892	-1.51676	5.215366	-3.18275
2007q2	8.348108	1.633826	1.465958	1.589697	2.033375	1.956677	2.513307	1.724804	2.678872	1.858508	-8.37837	2.091925	13.74859	-1.71193	0.982544	1.337448	2.554385	-3.20075	4.033334	-2.54307
2007q3	7.775386	1.568527	5.778644	1.546233	1.819794	1.832465	2.310481	1.591394	2.678516	1.718729	-4.89404	1.967809	11.08092	3.539532	0.911542	1.263161	1.345199	-2.54089	2.274598	-4.73777
2007q4	8.60212	2.550619	12.83547	2.333173	2.818434	2.852224	3.449736	2.573064	4.572661	2.652117	-1.16009	3.097825	5.057701	7.565156	1.528433	2.08834	0.767802	-1.27024	-2.01952	-9.05533
2008q1	6.587526	3.091177	12.86083	3.038244	3.247984	3.294247	3.79791	3.087116	5.928801	3.011092	7.090655	3.651555	3.435968	5.920357	1.938821	2.55624	0.96914	4.260665	-9.22012	-11.2076
2008q2	5.062817	3.662717	5.537525	3.442104	3.774366	3.912117	4.468572	3.958228	7.066659	3.607725	9.169116	4.213939	-4.67202	5.874814	2.350258	3.079889	2.959758	6.057607	-12.0547	-9.97166

Figure 2. Australia

Data for Figure 2 immediately follows

Data for Figure 2

TIME	COUNTRY	INFLATION	CURRACCTPERGDP	UNEMPRATE	REALINTRATE	FISCBALPERGDP	TERMSOFTRADE4QCHANGE	GDP4QCHANGE	BONDRATE	REALEQUITYINDEX
1970q1	AL		-1.6087	1.593752		-0.0717			5.986667	92.93719
1970q2	AL		-2.4103	1.636896		-0.0717			6.883333	80.12936
1970q3	AL		-2.08737	1.632675		-0.0717			6.876667	83.61253
1970q4	AL		-2.39694	1.649272		-0.0717			6.84	77.08953
1971q1	AL	6.490119	-2.45059	1.693472	0.909882	-0.48701	-11.0285	3.443227	6.846667	69.81059
1971q2	AL	6.509127	-1.66177	1.864508	1.407539	-0.48701	-7.10869	2.097732	6.833333	68.55109
1971q3	AL	6.442913	-1.35468	1.891161	0.207088	-0.48701	-3.25426	5.258239	6.803333	64.14162
1971q4	AL	5.597105	-2.19219	2.06105	0.469562	-0.48701	-12.124	4.654634	6.37	59.34674
1972q1	AL	5.896682	-0.57588	2.371498	-0.36335	-0.88655	-6.32957	2.331664	5.94	68.94705
1972q2	AL	5.639827	0.726737	2.336296	-0.02316	-0.88655	-0.55398	4.3509	5.85	76.51617
1972q3	AL	6.92866	1.189403	2.873059	-2.36199	-0.88655	2.875972	0.704064	5.766667	74.35652
1972q4	AL	8.894701	1.518163	2.705824	-4.27803	-0.88655	17.76947	2.063996	5.77	74.36189
1973q1	AL	8.477857	1.792265	2.564293	-3.49452	-0.18459	24.29336	4.488905	5.75	72.55624
1973q2	AL	11.34055	1.14987	2.340491	-5.14055	-0.18459	23.1475	2.802772	6.346667	63.90549
1973q3	AL	13.72005	-0.08047	2.090125	-6.33672	-0.18459	17.21981	3.667463	7.283333	59.02643
1973q4	AL	15.22246	-0.61862	2.131742	-5.85579	-0.18459	14.61489	5.650534	8.353333	49.16333
1974q1	AL	16.1659	-1.9062	2.096011	-6.54924	-0.99641	6.240157	4.211386	8.363334	51.9281
1974q2	AL	15.61082	-3.72927	2.107463	3.322517	-0.99641	-6.24615	0.70992	8.783334	45.71461
1974q3	AL	15.83978	-3.44413	2.643725	-1.90645	-0.99641	-6.51888	2.146758	9.5	30.58765
1974q4	AL	17.18438	-3.14594	3.701602	-7.03438	-0.99641	-10.8066	-0.88869	9.5	26.88929
1975q1	AL	15.34414	-0.54793	4.488314	-6.44414	-2.91278	-17.208	-0.56659	9.466666	30.67472
1975q2	AL	12.83893	-0.14903	4.878999	-3.67227	-2.91278	-8.39645	5.621322	9.5	31.502
1975q3	AL	12.12729	-1.1273	5.032921	-3.99396	-2.91278	-9.89673	3.038517	10	31.07876
1975q4	AL	12.9028	-2.4172	4.989967	-5.0028	-2.91278	-5.26956	1.525291	10	33.01302
1976q1	AL	11.65918	-1.87654	4.609034	-3.52584	-3.01894	-3.20767	4.509719	10.00133	36.27391
1976q2	AL	14.55577	-1.49147	4.57739	-4.51577	-3.01894	0.975522	1.830006	9.998667	35.11848
1976q3	AL	13.12428	-1.20315	5.128295	-3.67761	-3.01894	1.382929	3.34716	9.990833	36.34163
1976q4	AL	9.376501	-2.59558	4.5695	-0.0365	-3.01894	-1.48965	5.549149	10.11917	31.08296
1977q1	AL	11.78557	-3.13542	5.050032	-2.46223	-3.50852	-3.28428	1.412634	10.4	30.57922
1977q2	AL	9.330072	-3.29436	5.700134	1.586595	-3.50852	-7.72354	2.464319	10.40583	31.01082
1977q3	AL	8.515809	-3.11875	5.976721	2.167524	-3.50852	-11.2852	1.300957	10.34983	29.84491
1977q4	AL	7.666259	-1.81044	5.545216	2.260407	-3.50852	-10.9699	0.344268	9.871166	29.7382
1978q1	AL	7.474159	-3.3911	6.528456	2.219174	-4.17651	-10.0052	1.159599	9.290833	29.91923
1978q2	AL	7.76733	-3.49385	6.323061	2.929337	-4.17651	-6.92594	0.885495	9.134	30.80752
1978q3	AL	7.857203	-3.70596	6.313323	1.896131	-4.17651	-3.13098	2.323964	9.043333	33.2263
1978q4	AL	8.295799	-4.19646	6.272751	0.9342	-4.17651	-0.46228	3.696265	8.854333	32.90312
1979q1	AL	8.064611	-2.5559	6.137217	0.692056	-2.88248	1.93199	7.023398	8.979667	34.71478
1979q2	AL	9.169991	-2.36654	6.356266	1.236675	-2.88248	4.016431	3.4218	9.700833	33.61953
1979q3	AL	9.804709	-1.49813	6.219223	0.031958	-2.88248	6.005472	3.583289	10.07333	35.50231
1979q4	AL	9.93398	-1.45687	6.158206	0.159353	-2.88248	7.482009	4.573705	10.0775	39.01913
1980q1	AL	9.95996	-1.5855	5.928022	0.560041	-2.27657	5.555002	1.196958	10.62767	45.59028
1980q2	AL	8.653605	-2.00811	6.229752	4.993061	-2.27657	-0.80055	3.725649	11.697	45.9961
1980q3	AL	8.787403	-3.30385	6.094779	3.509264	-2.27657	-1.39289	3.447896	11.80017	50.99057
1980q4	AL	9.722281	-3.9272	5.951538	1.924385	-2.27657	-2.73207	2.872776	12.26167	54.30233
1981q1	AL	9.003967	-4.01598	5.7231	4.529366	-2.68426	-1.85272	2.860716	13.0625	49.43272
1981q2	AL	9.297048	-4.15345	5.51429	6.886285	-2.68426	-1.2483	4.392102	13.09333	50.66356
1981q3	AL	9.860974	-4.56113	5.788389	5.625692	-2.68426	0.931556	5.078759	14.385	42.63116
1981q4	AL	10.09817	-5.66958	5.933408	4.851832	-2.68426	-1.5977	3.349468	15	39.13951
1982q1	AL	11.36695	-5.45428	6.141395	6.039713	-3.73376	-5.40561	1.94486	15.06167	32.77584
1982q2	AL	12.38538	-5.39023	6.513907	7.084623	-3.73376	-1.23326	0.817395	15.80417	31.3332
1982q3	AL	10.89991	-3.64741	7.016138	5.740089	-3.73376	-3.50436	-1.47705	16.25083	30.22268
1982q4	AL	10.84929	-3.76013	8.723769	2.970708	-3.73376	-1.5361	-2.80107	14.52167	29.68317
1983q1	AL	9.68901	-3.82351	9.491078	3.537657	-4.92135	1.954966	-2.47359	13.56833	30.70268
1983q2	AL	7.904707	-3.57834	10.15476	5.53196	-4.92135	0.750078	-3.16417	14.17	35.53171
1983q3	AL	8.284883	-3.90792	10.21605	3.721785	-4.92135	1.096624	0.496896	14.69	40.16352
1983q4	AL	6.87559	-3.13459	9.648889	3.251077	-4.92135	3.121125	3.90514	13.54084	41.65685
1984q1	AL	7.155248	-4.02003	9.286023	4.701418	-4.8674	1.906135	7.306956	13.82601	41.54238
1984q2	AL	7.305931	-4.04047	9.128699	6.184069	-4.8674	0.975549	7.769603	13.90555	37.57193
1984q3	AL	5.790304	-4.66947	8.719358	5.673029	-4.8674	1.482532	5.624642	13.17447	38.94721
1984q4	AL	3.866909	-5.63178	8.591413	7.723091	-4.8674	-0.05059	4.967179	13.29387	40.42526
1985q1	AL	4.456886	-4.16325	8.447771	9.693113	-4.88974	-0.15871	4.078511	13.54052	42.27843
1985q2	AL	4.17527	-5.21451	8.425058	11.51473	-4.88974	-7.0895	5.889327	13.76931	45.42149
1985q3	AL	5.056222	-5.91752	8.092987	11.00044	-4.88974	-8.60437	6.195334	13.54234	49.25901
1985q4	AL	6.023731	-6.12555	7.756683	12.0096	-4.88974	-12.8956	5.370476	14.75123	51.515
1986q1	AL	5.345584	-6.12844	7.853763	12.55442	-4.12618	-12.681	3.970631	13.89447	54.56368
1986q2	AL	6.065155	-6.22304	7.567491	8.991512	-4.12618	-6.09384	1.179877	12.58337	59.62704
1986q3	AL	5.592139	-4.96954	8.007893	11.17453	-4.12618	-9.73821	1.030312	13.86005	57.99052
1986q4	AL	7.110434	-4.71616	8.090796	8.9729	-4.12618	-5.51452	1.63939	13.5574	67.23208
1987q1	AL	7.03199	-4.41689	7.992373	9.291344	-2.37546	-4.7099	2.60734	13.70492	74.8626
1987q2	AL	7.58451	-3.96829	7.969562	6.71549	-2.37546	-2.64775	4.285986	12.94766	80.42204
1987q3	AL	8.817976	-3.48715	7.763268	3.592024	-2.37546	4.881513	4.866357	12.78057	95.74436
1987q4	AL	7.639851	-3.37135	7.669527	4.326816	-2.37546	5.506379	5.956835	13.13099	58.04012
1988q1	AL	8.474936	-3.29314	7.290309	2.508397	-0.71954	8.543329	5.39704	12.34727	56.23651
1988q2	AL	7.940217	-4.37189	7.366466	4.31645	-0.71954	11.09163	4.459242	11.87904	64.28881
1988q3	AL	8.681089	-4.69272	6.692356	4.665577	-0.71954	13.13636	3.621546	11.85131	64.5581
1988q4	AL	9.693118	-4.76849	6.52871	4.920216	-0.71954	13.69262	2.769043	12.18588	60.77275
1989q1	AL	8.388405	-5.6227	6.28875	8.061596	-0.56533	14.72862	3.30701	13.47857	59.31625
1989q2	AL	8.172002	-6.05108	5.946147	9.611331	-0.56533	9.730265	5.0209	13.65444	58.87068
1989q3	AL	6.541546	-6.19533	5.777982	11.50512	-0.56533	2.837973	5.349562	13.23285	65.63225
1989q4	AL	5.406997	-5.82204	5.612813	12.75967	-0.56533	2.645817	4.082664	13.35012	62.0777
1990q1	AL	5.213942	-6.36459	5.92852	11.24273	-2.04497	-2.46342	3.71681	13.1325	59.91193
1990q2	AL	5.440226	-4.52056	6.161421	9.629774	-2.04497	-1.84161	1.560221	13.54798	54.57482
1990q3	AL	4.400781	-4.29836	6.887561	9.689219	-2.04497	-1.29572	-0.04053	13.42266	54.80871
1990q4	AL	4.236416	-4.95528	7.54514	8.32025	-2.04497	-6.07907	-0.08729	12.66596	47.60221
1991q1	AL	3.530113	-4.21988	8.321541	8.149887	-4.70258	-7.59432	-1.51364	11.62336	50.4014
1991q2	AL	1.604424	-3.69184	9.162171	9.218909	-4.70258	-8.84222	-1.55271	10.99226	54.86615
1991q3	AL	2.056367	-3.01328	9.516698	7.960299	-4.70258	-6.76809	-0.96405	10.77059	55.99758
1991q4	AL	2.222529	-2.82275	9.889157	6.160804	-4.70258	-3.19147	-0.7643	9.822086	58.65131
1992q1	AL	1.806803	-3.22611	10.0179	5.686531	-5.47456	-0.98483	1.027498	9.970782	57.14046
1992q2	AL	1.869928	-3.74019	10.41769	4.850071	-5.47456	-0.6045	1.502697	9.282183	58.97285
1992q3	AL	1.269915	-3.80454	10.52794	4.500085	-5.47456	-3.12536	2.52194	8.682754	55.06342
1992q4	AL	0.610206	-3.45671	10.75682	5.269794	-5.47456	-3.72443	4.038536	8.850736	52.17019
1993q1	AL	1.223068	-3.18258	10.64928	4.470265	-4.40564	-3.77026	4.17496	8.361087	56.33319
1993q2	AL	1.348631	-3.39754	10.56902	3.864703	-4.40564	-5.97599	4.49298	7.59573	60.20466
1993q3	AL	1.381176	-3.0388	10.5574	3.51549	-4.40564	-4.8723	3.279816	6.908788	67.32412
1993q4	AL	1.394491	-3.09237	10.46512	3.408843	-4.40564	-3.9143	3.527092	6.66748	73.25709
1994q1	AL	0.64803	-3.06183	10.07981	4.18197	-4.45687	-3.01284	4.093532	6.90627	76.2302
1994q2	AL	0.8068	-4.77758	9.667845	4.156533	-4.45687	-0.38345	4.613366	8.698334	71.08569
1994q3	AL	0.935123	-5.87525	9.205335	4.711544	-4.45687	0.557781	6.094711	9.635196	71.81097
1994q4	AL	1.051725	-5.8223	8.729187	6.134942	-4.45687	4.065888	4.55174	10.33396	67.28904
1995q1	AL	1.185585	-6.49175	8.509686	7.007749	-3.70162	3.259667	3.63409	10.20627	65.04417
1995q2	AL	1.448311	-5.30919	8.116896	6.265022	-3.70162	2.447717	3.817497	9.2537	69.51447
1995q3	AL	1.534576	-4.34	8.005348	6.008758	-3.70162	3.325819	3.907717	8.964148	72.68784
1995q4	AL	1.986241	-4.64477	8.056276	5.467092	-3.70162	0.578258	4.116258	8.419457	72.58398
1996q1	AL	2.738192	-4.07921	8.130425	4.748475	-2.35087	2.32258	4.663291	8.389683	76.20307
1996q2	AL	2.465031	-3.32168	8.136497	5.098303	-2.35087	5.477627	3.847268	8.879146	76.07192
1996q3	AL	2.059619	-3.79328	8.18111	5.070381	-2.35087	4.71349	3.499286	8.224299	75.17387
1996q4	AL	1.297611	-3.68887	8.306816	5.129056	-2.35087	4.083828	3.939087	7.3437	79.78761
1997q1	AL	1.388194	-3.0516	8.378648	4.538473	-0.65783	2.326517	2.373248	7.584174	80.56606
1997q2	AL	0.914512	-1.97239	8.293633	4.838821	-0.65783	1.35285	4.59684	7.583118	86.4209
1997q3	AL	1.615035	-2.89681	8.212539	3.338298	-0.65783	1.340819	3.985644	6.534975	88.84785
1997q4	AL	1.920112	-3.48257	7.956761	3.029887	-0.65783	0.82296	4.160687	6.117407	82.47263
1998q1	AL	0.575111	-4.84698	7.866389	4.398223	1.645572	-1.3237	5.442816	5.852667	88.86378
1998q2	AL	0.695576	-4.19353	7.745056	4.37109	1.645572	-2.87901	3.814664	5.633413	89.30112
1998q3	AL	0.5401	-5.08153	7.753087	4.5899	1.645572	-5.83624	4.966795	5.501928	84.80093
1998q4	AL	-0.6729	-5.03532	7.43917	5.509571	1.645572	-6.90909	5.632573	4.983874	90.53914
1999q1	AL	0.260551	-5.39073	7.185666	4.529449	2.045984	-3.39163	4.797613	5.318139	95.68526
1999q2	AL	-0.37641	-5.91965	6.985648	5.226409	2.045984	-2.87066	5.039079	5.813293	98.73927
1999q3	AL	0.280718	-5.39962	6.844463	4.659282	2.045984	1.809926	3.954673	6.272424	96.3895
1999q4	AL	1.678911	-4.53888	6.654724	3.787755	2.045984	5.442386	3.430447	6.633391	98.28857
2000q1	AL	2.73714	-4.56268	6.464885	3.046193	0.927427	6.592219	4.294919	6.901983	99.75917
2000q2	AL	4.134144	-4.69806	6.376729	2.059189	0.927427	6.004341	4.15161	6.300913	100.4269
2000q3	AL	4.914385	-2.78601	6.005367	1.505615	0.927427	5.329621	3.871343	6.175162	102.0298
2000q4	AL	4.842803	-2.99203	6.190802	1.470531	0.927427	2.649205	1.663645	5.880219	100.3803
2001q1	AL	4.471531	-2.15654	6.391371	1.075136	-0.13836	0.364567	1.393089	5.285803	100
2001q2	AL	4.409249	-1.83813	6.824092	0.497417	-0.13836	1.372	1.058425	5.805817	103.0909
2001q3	AL	3.204175	-1.41805	6.793955	1.642492	-0.13836	1.293528	1.927067	5.808712	96.8825
2001q4	AL	3.127496	-2.60176	6.891261	1.16917	-0.13836	1.433995	3.906606	5.560726	99.97867
2002q1	AL	3.087078	-2.46236	6.625985	1.256255	1.295319	2.60858	3.918483	6.037694	101.7084
2002q2	AL	2.838975	-3.69944	6.365936	1.994358	1.295319	2.029265	4.401436	6.172283	97.65529
2002q3	AL	2.58436	-4.13141	6.246527	2.368973	1.295319	1.458373	4.106166	5.647969	89.80309
2002q4	AL	3.053904	-4.76141	6.114477	1.802763	1.295319	2.864079	3.307233	5.517885	88.3084
2003q1	AL	2.479589	-4.87912	6.068	2.290411	1.764506	2.311419	3.374769	5.238139	83.28336
2003q2	AL	2.166507	-5.91091	6.029741	2.58016	1.764506	2.516406	2.547379	5.058907	86.96727
2003q3	AL	2.98478	-5.51641	5.898199	1.831887	1.764506	3.501055	3.14546	5.423203	90.08289
2003q4	AL	3.188218	-5.22457	5.700951	2.061782	1.764506	4.811924	4.360565	5.746692	91.5827
2004q1	AL	4.044984	-5.4915	5.536161	1.498349	1.057714	7.5568	3.825146	5.578812	92.97104
2004q2	AL	4.370857	-5.61009	5.428474	1.142476	1.057714	9.698161	3.894626	5.868857	95.63338
2004q3	AL	4.005608	-6.55206	5.502879	1.434392	1.057714	9.791459	3.082767	5.571818	98.12036
2004q4	AL	3.75518	-6.7961	5.134615	1.661487	1.057714	8.875789	1.958878	5.344596	106.2834
2005q1	AL	3.251386	-6.34002	5.109921	2.368613	1.54521	7.864305	2.345056	5.467404	111.0104
2005q2	AL	3.791418	-5.55855	5.071555	1.905249	1.54521	11.50531	3.335437	5.299484	109.5365
2005q3	AL	4.281316	-5.66766	4.96565	1.348684	1.54521	11.59657	3.332972	5.198432	117.7832
2005q4	AL	4.708287	-5.42738	5.012242	0.921713	1.54521	12.63212	3.636621	5.393989	119.4689
2006q1	AL	4.752246	-5.23855	5.001553	0.864421	1.530024	10.45305	3.097255	5.272268	127.9498
2006q2	AL	4.702936	-5.627	4.865992	1.137064	1.530024	6.313295	2.002144	5.688536	129.6146
2006q3	AL	5.100198	-4.96085	4.700788	1.049802	1.530024	6.430429	2.136462	5.736325	126.6959
2006q4	AL	4.674996	-5.40517	4.549285	1.67167	1.530024	6.414081	2.468003	5.652727	136.0869
2007q1	AL	4.423299	-5.67412	4.481998	1.986701	1.588874	7.541447	3.840861	5.81	143.8634
2007q2	AL	3.64541	-6.39996	4.315347	2.777923	1.588874	5.495278	4.395377	6.01	152.8688
2007q3	AL	2.778038	-6.10275	4.267831	3.941962	1.588874	3.111856	4.753963	6.023334	153.1185
2007q4	AL	3.127914	-6.66251	4.352493	3.988753	1.588874	2.199259	4.380362	6.136667	156.5116
2008q1	AL	3.510502	-6.83683	4.017843	4.079498	1.80906	2.059547	3.401613	6.153333	130.7836
2008q2	AL	6.373653	-4.77777	4.252058	1.426347	1.80906	14.49891	2.775025	6.373333	125.9327

Figure 3. Finland

Data for Figure 3 immediately follows

Data for Figure 3

TIME	COUNTRY	INFLATION	CURRACCTPERGDP	UNEMPRATE	REALINTRATE	FISCBALPERGDP	REALEFFEXRATE	GDP4QCHANGE	BONDRATE	REALEQUITYINDEX
1970q1	FI			1.863566		4.409496	115.1333		7.686666	7.549328
1970q2	FI			2.022436		4.409496	114.0667		7.633333	8.128429
1970q3	FI			1.956104		4.409496	113.5967		8.033334	8.287646
1970q4	FI			1.749419		4.409496	112.4567		7.956666	8.553942
1971q1	FI	5.36294		1.898	1.820393	4.447676	112.4533	1.543356	7.696667	8.55809
1971q2	FI	6.207008		2.275637	1.642992	4.447676	112.5633	4.007779	7.573333	8.683108
1971q3	FI	8.103642		2.365162	0.613024	4.447676	113.19	2.125411	8.68	8.565178
1971q4	FI	9.672403		2.428707	-1.0824	4.447676	110.6767	0.483482	8.616667	8.336083
1972q1	FI	5.606196		2.657749	2.143804	3.759538	105.7667	10.17344	7.966667	9.373771
1972q2	FI	9.599488		2.488476	-1.83949	3.759538	106.9133	4.080407	7.943333	9.698752
1972q3	FI	8.907215		2.594706	-1.13722	3.759538	107.6733	6.240877	8.096666	11.08471
1972q4	FI	8.041276		2.475367	-0.24461	3.759538	107.4133	8.884421	7.853333	11.69737
1973q1	FI	10.26313		2.55521	-2.4498	5.351175	106.5733	7.733516	8.166667	14.39171
1973q2	FI	12.08192		2.359878	-4.20526	5.351175	106.7267	4.480674	8.25	13.98115
1973q3	FI	12.44519		2.296364	-2.37853	5.351175	108.6167	6.746662	8.346666	14.09762
1973q4	FI	17.75277		2.126308	-5.92277	5.351175	109.8433	6.569717	8.273334	14.57594
1974q1	FI	19.64107		1.724813	-8.9244	4.872756	111.6233	2.545425	8.846666	12.81986
1974q2	FI	21.77452		1.56182	-10.7079	4.872756	114.1367	5.878618	8.776667	11.64493
1974q3	FI	19.07577		2.00703	-9.68577	4.872756	116.6533	2.801656	9.063334	11.47482
1974q4	FI	20.59224		1.69751	-10.1189	4.872756	115.61	0.974929	8.476666	9.464219
1975q1	FI	16.64767	-9.76014	1.645408	-6.28433	5.078825	118.8567	3.241844	9.526667	9.290069
1975q2	FI	12.54345	-8.09978	1.71959	-1.03345	5.078825	119.36	2.08478	9.573334	8.772448
1975q3	FI	13.65439	-6.94889	2.567675	-2.37439	5.078825	121.36	-0.04501	9.69	9.311879
1975q4	FI	7.948858	-4.661	3.06029	5.764475	5.078825	122.61	-1.03629	9.713333	8.592727
1976q1	FI	10.87733	-5.4167	3.331129	1.706002	7.811965	126.82	-2.23451	9.833333	8.058706
1976q2	FI	11.03108	-1.92333	3.779144	1.275589	7.811965	127.93	-0.98892	10.37333	7.41122
1976q3	FI	13.28817	-3.62064	4.140504	-1.2015	7.811965	129.7367	1.039671	10.03667	6.930214
1976q4	FI	13.20113	-3.56513	4.126226	-0.6978	7.811965	130.2533	2.84526	10.42333	6.253374
1977q1	FI	9.878094	-0.17934	4.969149	1.545239	6.398666	132.09	1.607691	10.98333	5.95486
1977q2	FI	9.462976	-3.66726	5.710384	1.747025	6.398666	124.25	0.954578	10.90333	5.579103
1977q3	FI	8.96601	1.907135	6.10628	2.627323	6.398666	124.96	0.461782	10.82333	5.181964
1977q4	FI	8.89826	0.301256	6.582394	3.90174	6.398666	120.7667	-0.60251	10.30333	4.650925
1978q1	FI	7.688134	0.478834	7.371797	2.725199	3.939618	116.94	1.340021	10.54333	4.866667
1978q2	FI	8.058181	1.586995	6.954406	-0.24151	3.939618	112.67	2.162676	9.87	4.916307
1978q3	FI	7.400542	2.127245	7.049339	0.392792	3.939618	111.2067	1.982383	9.55	4.679169
1978q4	FI	7.485138	2.882648	7.176382	0.794862	3.939618	111.59	4.367317	9.233334	4.646465
1979q1	FI	8.137616	0.92377	6.755427	-0.53762	3.53771	112.1133	5.299793	9.476666	5.121743
1979q2	FI	7.998275	0.748092	5.812382	-0.35494	3.53771	113.1133	6.944461	9.54	5.278097
1979q3	FI	7.877823	-1.20558	5.561802	-0.10449	3.53771	113.1	7.361795	9.49	5.715031
1979q4	FI	8.518595	-1.79032	5.174121	2.548072	3.53771	114.78	6.39994	9.49	5.369586
1980q1	FI	10.03647	-2.50035	4.584788	1.016864	3.839908	114.9733	6.050187	10.20333	5.416358
1980q2	FI	10.23195	-3.69451	4.516972	1.811387	3.839908	118.1667	3.233627	10.51667	5.44946
1980q3	FI	8.448307	-3.5543	4.688677	4.608359	3.839908	118.8167	7.247852	10.49667	5.246358
1980q4	FI	8.925395	-1.22352	4.620516	4.187939	3.839908	120.14	3.303091	10.47	4.742115
1981q1	FI	11.02411	0.453723	4.60183	2.08256	5.237211	120.4767	1.454554	10.96	4.672483
1981q2	FI	10.12195	-1.53129	4.958588	0.684716	5.237211	121.6667	3.08821	10.97667	4.837916
1981q3	FI	12.02094	-1.04053	5.331353	-1.23428	5.237211	122.2467	-1.28509	10.99	4.835963
1981q4	FI	10.80226	-1.01598	5.3407	0.654407	5.237211	122.9033	1.864627	11.01	4.864876
1982q1	FI	8.617564	0.411478	5.501201	2.892436	3.152068	125.48	2.673353	11.19	5.431528
1982q2	FI	8.889179	-0.99235	5.386015	2.634154	3.152068	127.7933	2.489834	11.01667	6.037605
1982q3	FI	8.656934	-2.62373	5.284056	2.333066	3.152068	129.0833	3.075836	10.84	6.114484
1982q4	FI	8.352704	-3.36777	5.417658	4.853963	3.152068	116.8467	3.941697	10.90333	5.987203
1983q1	FI	7.711507	-2.26082	5.511816	4.771826	1.585473	117.27	3.438141	10.62333	6.70945
1983q2	FI	7.90375	-1.68845	5.764789	6.292917	1.585473	120.2633	3.502203	10.66667	7.753518
1983q3	FI	8.10012	-2.38598	5.189109	7.06988	1.585473	122.2433	3.337135	10.67333	8.826948
1983q4	FI	8.210662	-1.9974	5.391434	8.299338	1.585473	121.9333	1.83381	11.07667	9.807488
1984q1	FI	8.524595	0.98409	5.197237	8.975405	3.327022	122.5833	3.283199	11.14	10.86658
1984q2	FI	8.488474	0.175292	5.477904	8.224859	3.327022	124.7167	2.373784	11.22333	11.19876
1984q3	FI	8.312187	-0.61739	5.077776	8.037813	3.327022	125.3133	2.347941	11.07667	10.84744
1984q4	FI	7.282522	-0.17925	5.202061	8.154144	3.327022	124.8367	3.764345	11.02333	10.11056
1985q1	FI	6.392376	-0.95803	4.994464	7.870957	3.461502	124.4233	2.885198	10.71667	9.224911
1985q2	FI	5.492334	-0.64141	5.048304	8.351	3.461502	126.4067	3.87139	10.60333	8.233114
1985q3	FI	4.277964	0.200095	5.061331	9.102036	3.461502	127.6033	3.47998	10.60333	8.333488
1985q4	FI	4.985124	-3.87618	5.175077	7.384876	3.461502	127.4067	2.474761	10.68	9.244851
1986q1	FI	5.288926	-3.26229	5.482773	6.127741	3.910072	126.8533	1.848079	9.49	9.969241
1986q2	FI	4.524036	0.228555	5.486955	6.825964	3.910072	126.1267	1.160669	8.756667	11.68962
1986q3	FI	3.551851	-1.19329	5.36589	12.72482	3.910072	125.22	4.928981	8.63	13.90395
1986q4	FI	5.344463	0.413285	5.261554	6.555537	3.910072	125.0767	2.868452	8.78	15.34436
1987q1	FI	3.569255	-1.86406	5.441463	7.740745	1.641426	127	3.571805	7.83	16.56417
1987q2	FI	5.164632	-1.39866	5.120707	4.708701	1.641426	128.5667	4.864515	7.816667	18.43872
1987q3	FI	5.68273	-1.19048	4.890022	3.870604	1.641426	128.8	0.985793	7.853333	21.42853
1987q4	FI	4.518325	-3.05541	5.017681	4.875009	1.641426	129.4233	4.828931	8.136666	20.47572
1988q1	FI	7.205131	-1.7791	4.816261	2.178203	5.216558	131.57	5.330554	10.14	19.88074
1988q2	FI	7.655453	-2.16921	4.748787	1.67788	5.216558	133.2167	4.40448	10.19667	24.21492
1988q3	FI	7.131009	-4.27141	4.400146	2.852325	5.216558	131.8767	5.241201	10.63667	26.22185
1988q4	FI	8.346272	-1.77499	4.253694	2.81706	5.216558	133.5667	5.123538	11.25667	24.33364
1989q1	FI	7.49961	-2.75555	4.64252	3.520391	6.783159	135.54	5.04573	11.69667	25.09755
1989q2	FI	5.797571	-4.63821	4.417056	6.082429	6.783159	141.1133	5.987228	11.97667	25.55902
1989q3	FI	5.516149	-6.49722	4.538179	6.797184	6.783159	140.9433	5.934692	12.06667	24.5054
1989q4	FI	4.663874	-5.57472	4.126877	10.34946	6.783159	141.05	4.148774	12.60333	20.39518
1990q1	FI	5.19195	-3.8984	4.081755	10.62138	5.356049	143.4233	2.908609	12.91593	21.04775
1990q2	FI	4.653563	-4.94745	4.40103	8.423103	5.356049	143.79	0.578402	13.21667	18.41426
1990q3	FI	6.197272	-5.34323	4.660323	6.486062	5.356049	143.9667	-1.00789	13.33	16.39293
1990q4	FI	4.279506	-5.80221	5.087563	10.13383	5.356049	142.3667	-1.88973	13.37333	12.71448
1991q1	FI	1.28504	-6.23411	5.805172	13.03163	-0.95156	141.6533	-4.46322	12.72667	12.39036
1991q2	FI	2.154376	-5.78783	7.389209	10.24562	-0.95156	139.79	-5.81649	11.61333	13.97018
1991q3	FI	2.363315	-4.35352	8.980046	9.296685	-0.95156	135.04	-7.02571	11.10333	12.14817
1991q4	FI	2.276321	-4.85057	10.0282	11.66368	-0.95156	128.4367	-8.0225	11.40333	10.57448
1992q1	FI	1.782225	-5.45605	11.41161	10.34111	-5.43619	121.4633	-5.18364	11.39333	12.13043
1992q2	FI	0.982437	-4.9113	12.46163	12.89756	-5.43619	121.1733	-3.98699	11.95667	11.87695
1992q3	FI	1.378861	-4.10608	13.58931	13.77447	-5.43619	118.9967	-4.30451	12.85333	9.81572
1992q4	FI	0.432385	-3.87447	14.68896	11.41762	-5.43619	107.9367	-2.30035	11.68667	11.92601
1993q1	FI	2.90412	-3.37284	16.22366	6.672547	-8.27398	99.21333	-2.93744	10.35333	14.32565
1993q2	FI	2.756168	-1.33213	17.67879	5.443831	-8.27398	100.1833	-2.6606	9.43	17.45395
1993q3	FI	0.538067	-0.52011	17.9795	6.328599	-8.27398	98.32333	0.840737	8.153334	20.46381
1993q4	FI	-0.03978	0.100451	18.59421	6.48978	-8.27398	99.53667	1.018518	7.363333	23.80865
1994q1	FI	-1.12302	1.730458	18.87847	6.059691	-6.74471	102.4633	2.70061	6.856667	28.78036
1994q2	FI	-0.31769	2.025661	18.50048	5.611028	-6.74471	102.6067	4.370662	8.78	28.01311
1994q3	FI	1.56502	1.680185	17.39809	4.098314	-6.74471	105.5267	3.731672	10.33667	29.42253
1994q4	FI	4.497942	-0.97384	16.70971	1.008724	-6.74471	111.73	2.943394	10.17333	29.66647
1995q1	FI	4.899384	4.245203	16.75023	1.067283	-6.15623	113.2233	3.634468	10.21333	28.24381
1995q2	FI	5.587342	4.376891	16.33218	0.365991	-6.15623	115.2867	3.503655	8.983334	28.76879
1995q3	FI	5.779123	2.455968	16.96543	0.27421	-6.15623	116.6667	3.098981	8.353333	35.07999
1995q4	FI	3.647619	5.272253	16.7546	1.379047	-6.15623	116.58	4.817653	7.616667	30.10243
1996q1	FI	2.12127	3.351485	16.35171	2.042063	-3.5229	111.9267	3.297232	7.47	27.72191
1996q2	FI	0.259743	5.415467	15.80566	3.506924	-3.5229	108.68	3.310886	7.346667	30.95785
1996q3	FI	-1.30394	3.707181	15.8913	4.787274	-3.5229	111.61	3.592618	7.05	23.26946
1996q4	FI	-1.52343	3.506647	15.43075	4.610099	-3.5229	110.9567	4.470224	6.44	26.1395
1997q1	FI	0.717964	3.940183	13.51471	2.352036	-1.22681	108.8333	5.212538	6.056667	31.26701
1997q2	FI	0.817684	5.773234	13.30551	2.258983	-1.22681	106.9967	5.663693	6.203333	33.36507
1997q3	FI	1.913282	6.452487	12.10168	1.260051	-1.22681	105.1767	6.751007	5.863333	38.35844
1997q4	FI	2.999973	6.015602	11.91642	0.606694	-1.22681	106.42	6.196039	5.706666	38.112
1998q1	FI	3.608	6.006396	11.78597	-0.15133	1.673679	105.8933	5.743718	5.166667	41.15121
1998q2	FI	4.257689	6.019379	12.01305	-0.55436	1.673679	106.43	5.890159	5.013333	51.31251
1998q3	FI	3.559944	5.282664	11.23257	0.046723	1.673679	107.6767	5.030567	4.663333	51.26816
1998q4	FI	2.888308	5.078884	10.70742	0.618358	1.673679	108.96	3.802361	4.306667	48.97276
1999q1	FI	0.817587	4.58957	10.50425	2.275746	1.639905	106.5133	4.247	4.07	64.64498
1999q2	FI	0.422507	6.492528	10.48997	2.21416	1.639905	104.8	3.196656	4.296667	74.03773
1999q3	FI	1.116297	6.742546	10.01462	1.587036	1.639905	103.34	3.199398	5.126667	81.04153
1999q4	FI	0.884359	7.007907	10.04938	2.545641	1.639905	102.38	4.722331	5.396667	109.1319
2000q1	FI	1.974502	8.068958	10.49051	1.567865	6.937951	101.4	4.807212	5.653333	164.2307
2000q2	FI	2.547126	6.57279	9.791739	1.71324	6.937951	100.13	5.185643	5.48	167.9774
2000q3	FI	2.373321	10.41292	9.562547	2.364279	6.937951	99.53667	5.443395	5.466667	148.1326
2000q4	FI	3.320604	7.371417	9.428552	1.701629	6.937951	98.94334	3.958168	5.33	133.2712
2001q1	FI	3.322912	9.770607	9.188534	1.423355	5.033273	102.2833	4.354781	4.993333	100
2001q2	FI	3.331117	7.31792	9.001957	1.263949	5.033273	101.3367	2.857765	5.216667	95.56763
2001q3	FI	2.713992	7.78906	9.163916	1.553808	5.033273	101.96	1.704359	5.13	68.73792
2001q4	FI	2.180815	9.491015	9.249382	1.261718	5.033273	102.2367	1.013608	4.833333	78.33949
2002q1	FI	1.637858	9.32529	9.058908	1.724609	4.157435	101.8833	0.014693	5.16	82.61859
2002q2	FI	1.096097	9.161055	9.13558	2.34937	4.157435	102.83	1.558869	5.326667	65.98219
2002q3	FI	1.32424	8.610957	9.172318	2.033093	4.157435	103.8033	1.704794	4.84	53.95227
2002q4	FI	1.127317	8.289186	9.073288	1.981617	4.157435	104.3067	3.029387	4.596667	59.45933
2003q1	FI	-0.4891	5.351872	9.028624	3.172667	2.409456	106.25	1.710141	4.136667	52.95304
2003q2	FI	-0.10997	6.584614	9.173509	2.474538	2.409456	108.0633	1.663702	3.946667	54.52626
2003q3	FI	-0.48963	5.074245	8.990986	2.628868	2.409456	107.14	2.335517	4.13	56.44184
2003q4	FI	-0.49029	3.640916	8.989054	2.639825	2.409456	107.67	1.813993	4.326667	60.86678
2004q1	FI	1.242633	6.987546	8.941817	0.820867	2.176737	108.47	3.636249	4.063334	67.00787
2004q2	FI	0.424592	5.294075	9.079889	1.657475	2.176737	106.4633	3.61409	4.276667	57.5091
2004q3	FI	1.116019	6.147048	8.754156	1.000281	2.176737	106.94	3.273957	4.236667	54.43494
2004q4	FI	0.542531	7.706081	8.629	1.621069	2.176737	107.8833	4.277326	3.86	60.89026
2005q1	FI	0.125479	4.98085	8.749921	2.014855	2.673759	107.6167	2.955799	3.63	63.88633
2005q2	FI	0.31082	2.09376	8.370495	1.81378	2.673759	106.1833	2.252556	3.333333	67.40363
2005q3	FI	-0.46388	4.256936	8.192031	2.594209	2.673759	105.2933	3.705174	3.143333	73.39142
2005q4	FI	0.610875	3.081682	8.358789	1.732592	2.673759	104.99	2.708518	3.296667	76.03462
2006q1	FI	0.723141	5.453	7.993033	1.888426	4.001626	105.08	4.530972	3.446667	85.56625
2006q2	FI	1.113775	6.206392	7.747608	1.775725	4.001626	105.9567	5.531255	3.946667	87.55686
2006q3	FI	2.106053	4.897571	7.698262	1.115314	4.001626	106.2733	4.096463	3.933333	83.39624
2006q4	FI	2.116347	1.60663	7.557524	1.47812	4.001626	107.0233	4.611028	3.803333	88.82404
2007q1	FI	2.445374	3.662544	7.131401	1.37496	5.339425	107.79	4.638491	4.036667	95.36285
2007q2	FI	2.69001	3.859997	6.543769	1.374823	5.339425	108.85	4.404899	4.383333	104.3055
2007q3	FI	2.843556	6.399561	6.957458	1.656944	5.339425	109.0333	4.195725	4.44	107.6183
2007q4	FI	3.002788	3.315641	6.897218	1.721979	5.339425	110.1433	4.085511	4.313334	110.475
2008q1	FI	3.409777	4.306506	6.16768	1.070223	4.603198	112.22	2.701946	4.066667	95.17308
2008q2	FI	3.2038	2.830886	6.130591	1.656666	4.603198	113.8033	2.400279	4.49	87.15093

Figure 4. Greece

Data for Figure 4 immediately follows

Data for Figure 4

TIME	COUNTRY	INFLATION	CURRACCTPERGDP	UNEMPRATE	REALINTRATE	FISCBALPERGDP	REALEFFEXRATE	GDP4QCHANGE	BONDRATE	REALEQUITYINDEX
1970q1	GC			2.7		0.633685	115.5233
1970q2	GC			2.7		0.633685	116.8333
1970q3	GC			2.7		0.633685	114.1033
1970q4	GC			2.7		0.633685	114.4333
1971q1	GC	4.375167		2.3	3.624833	0.097191	112.5533	7.514193
1971q2	GC	1.489431		2.3	6.510569	0.097191	113.2	6.180615
1971q3	GC	4.331009		2.3	3.668991	0.097191	107.8733	8.861747
1971q4	GC	1.472137		2.3	6.527863	0.097191	105.5433	7.600164
1972q1	GC	2.352015		2	5.647985	0.010059	100.8767	9.955164
1972q2	GC	6.149515		2	1.850485	0.010059	101.5567	10.606
1972q3	GC	3.648921		2	4.351079	0.010059	98.65	5.426056
1972q4	GC	7.404133		2	0.595867	0.010059	101.3633	12.69144
1973q1	GC	12.72256		1.8	-4.72256	-0.03426	97.16666	8.108819
1973q2	GC	13.35538		1.8	-5.35538	-0.03426	95.13	8.572552
1973q3	GC	20.20755		1.8	-10.2076	-0.03426	90.78	9.789086
1973q4	GC	28.09826		1.8	-18.0983	-0.03426	108.5733	4.752144
1974q1	GC	25.30459		1.5	-13.9713	-1.20664	114.8933	2.361952
1974q2	GC	24.85468		1.5	-12.8547	-1.20664	110.3567	-6.4506
1974q3	GC	21.74271		1.5	-9.74271	-1.20664	110.28	-13.7757
1974q4	GC	12.22326		1.5	-0.22326	-1.20664	109.1733	-9.0734
1975q1	GC	11.18067		1.3	0.819325	-2.6205	104.6967	0.604345
1975q2	GC	11.37617		1.3	0.623831	-2.6205	104.7	4.998348
1975q3	GC	11.40191		1.3	0.598087	-2.6205	98.09	9.899026
1975q4	GC	14.63464		1.3	-3.13464	-2.6205	100.0167	9.51137
1976q1	GC	17.19827	-3.60799	1.1	-5.69827	-1.47569	101.69	5.0946
1976q2	GC	15.77591	-2.10275	1.1	-4.27591	-1.47569	103.24	6.62174
1976q3	GC	15.01851	-4.93854	1.1	-3.51851	-1.47569	99.96	5.935426
1976q4	GC	12.92833	-1.73931	1.1	-1.42833	-1.47569	100.3633	8.756418
1977q1	GC	12.18422	-1.93217	0.8	-0.18422	-2.2453	99.49	5.061862
1977q2	GC	12.33678	-4.35852	0.8	-0.33678	-2.2453	101.3167	0.828836
1977q3	GC	12.97277	-3.09287	0.8	-0.97277	-2.2453	100.7067	3.706903
1977q4	GC	14.0626	-2.95132	0.8	-2.0626	-2.2453	103.1	2.028908
1978q1	GC	13.35853	-2.63845	1	-1.35853	-2.59323	99.15	6.339612
1978q2	GC	13.85386	-1.96565	1	-1.02053	-2.59323	99.20667	8.460502
1978q3	GC	12.80054	-4.58996	1	1.699458	-2.59323	93.62334	4.869567
1978q4	GC	11.71216	0.101556	1	2.787845	-2.59323	93.92	8.217651
1979q1	GC	15.72929	-2.93351	1	-1.22929	-2.14545	98.01667	4.793045		52.1791
1979q2	GC	16.36569	-3.5802	1	-1.36569	-2.14545	100.6767	5.825962		48.57745
1979q3	GC	19.46182	-5.93195	1	-2.12849	-2.14545	98.69666	3.544289		43.81141
1979q4	GC	21.84661	-2.01013	1	-1.84661	-2.14545	100.14	-1.13365		38.71864
1980q1	GC	15.97191	-3.51838	1.9	4.028088	-2.33728	99.71	1.799585		36.98579
1980q2	GC	18.39823	-4.45833	1.9	1.601767	-2.33728	95.98	0.432371		32.94622
1980q3	GC	17.44952	-3.87694	1.9	5.050482	-2.33728	93.21	0.55456		31.29806
1980q4	GC	18.60603	-4.09264	1.9	3.893969	-2.33728	98.64	-0.11407		28.17659
1981q1	GC	20.74445	-4.04576	3.2	1.75555	-7.76064	99.45667	-5.45096		26.25215
1981q2	GC	18.42179	-4.8966	3.2	3.411543	-7.76064	100.2567	-5.7563		25.57629
1981q3	GC	19.48859	-5.5825	3.2	1.011408	-7.76064	99.28333	2.447088		21.57941
1981q4	GC	18.87671	-4.3506	3.2	1.623289	-7.76064	104.9133	2.512815		20.04377
1982q1	GC	24.17798	-2.28438	4.9	-8.92798	-6.53827	105.3967	2.549203		19.41894
1982q2	GC	25.6389	-1.76745	4.9	-10.3889	-6.53827	106.82	0.588335		17.53004
1982q3	GC	24.58227	-7.14821	4.9	-9.33227	-6.53827	102.7733	-3.25283		17.42081
1982q4	GC	22.65031	-3.12412	4.9	-7.40031	-6.53827	106.5167	-4.39185		16.7672
1983q1	GC	18.98644	-5.79113	7	-3.73644	-6.74796	94.27	-3.64931		15.56667
1983q2	GC	18.41751	-1.19482	7	-3.16751	-6.74796	100.3467	-2.62426		12.93504
1983q3	GC	18.23139	-5.94703	7	-2.98139	-6.74796	99.56667	0.732432		11.11493
1983q4	GC	18.94271	-2.91152	7	-3.69271	-6.74796	97.73333	1.203665		9.971746
1984q1	GC	20.56182	-5.6914	7.3	-3.47849	-7.55571	95.61333	1.763945		8.650173
1984q2	GC	19.77643	-3.44203	7.3	-1.77643	-7.55571	95.41333	2.315685		8.877177
1984q3	GC	19.99539	-4.16558	7.3	-1.99539	-7.55571	94.75333	2.982373		8.357649
1984q4	GC	19.0944	-5.05262	7.3	-1.0944	-7.55571	94.89333	0.918458		8.238446
1985q1	GC	16.47105	-8.6371	7	1.528952	-10.3731	97.01334	-1.15644		8.019021
1985q2	GC	15.52798	-7.27722	7	2.972025	-10.3731	94.91333	1.621091	16.55	8.542214
1985q3	GC	16.2846	-7.65038	7	2.215399	-10.3731	92.32	3.31653	14.17	8.159039
1985q4	GC	20.36596	-5.51612	7	-1.86596	-10.3731	82.41666	5.933843	14.01	8.239832
1986q1	GC	18.56163	-5.11026	6.6	-0.06163	-8.58785	83.68667	2.065651	14.94	9.990805
1986q2	GC	18.55112	-3.7447	6.6	-0.05112	-8.58785	85.74	4.55223	16.98	9.676149
1986q3	GC	18.2953	-3.15678	6.6	0.204704	-8.58785	84.91333	-1.60953	16.59	11.11894
1986q4	GC	14.72629	-1.0223	6.6	3.773713	-8.58785	86.52333	-2.73705	14.6167	13.0378
1987q1	GC	14.15016	-2.9695	6.5	4.349842	-8.56088	85.58667	-0.52894	17.4567	16.76694
1987q2	GC	15.45881	-3.82176	6.5	3.041187	-8.56088	87.68667	-5.08277	17.3567	19.89651
1987q3	GC	13.74765	1.206577	6.5	5.75235	-8.56088	85.37666	-3.3127	16.9133	31.76418
1987q4	GC	13.45775	-1.99395	6.5	6.042251	-8.56088	87.38667	-0.27934		43.51256
1988q1	GC	15.65649	-3.24607	6.9	3.843509	-10.3398	86.65	6.378316	20.39	34.11219
1988q2	GC	14.54593	-1.38966	6.9	4.787407	-10.3398	88.90667	4.50824	17.0233	33.45033
1988q3	GC	15.93972	0.68682	6.9	3.060281	-10.3398	88.07333	4.946814	14.8667	30.75637
1988q4	GC	15.80183	-0.87207	6.9	3.19817	-10.3398	89.94666	1.032237	13.9667	30.07585
1989q1	GC	13.726	-1.59234	6.6	4.773997	-12.1448	88.49333	2.188736		27.15125
1989q2	GC	13.00579	-3.66384	6.6	5.994206	-12.1448	88.69334	4.856208		28.9513
1989q3	GC	13.59865	-4.53931	6.6	5.401354	-12.1448	89.05666	2.735199		34.45883
1989q4	GC	13.68128	-3.53314	6.6	5.985388	-12.1448	91.16666	5.131104		43.2026
1990q1	GC	15.34573	-6.74783	6.2	5.65427	-14.04	91.13333	2.636903		49.53457
1990q2	GC	18.25633	-2.96301	6.2	4.74367	-14.04	93.18	0.928308		88.09135
1990q3	GC	20.18634	-3.5779	6.2	3.813658	-14.04	95.44666	-4.78163		110.0204
1990q4	GC	21.28539	-1.99148	6.2	2.714611	-14.04	97.28333	0.940544		71.39801
1991q1	GC	19.87372	-4.81696	6.9	3.792942	-9.86338	94.13	0.426262		77.88007
1991q2	GC	18.67562	-0.77605	6.9	4.824379	-9.86338	94.28333	1.517016		74.82474
1991q3	GC	17.0473	0.975685	6.9	6.452698	-9.86338	94.44334	10.4435		61.85096
1991q4	GC	16.65718	-1.15226	6.9	6.009485	-9.86338	97.84333	0.145311		51.4688
1992q1	GC	15.81245	-1.47334	7.8	6.354218	-10.9327	97.45667	1.913787		54.84745
1992q2	GC	13.57965	-1.01878	7.8	7.753689	-10.9327	96.95333	0.532668		49.87881
1992q3	GC	12.84634	-4.75424	7.8	8.153656	-10.9327	96.19334	0.236297		43.70992
1992q4	GC	13.24004	-0.50352	7.8	9.093291	-10.9327	99.41333	0.081645	24.3333	33.98803
1993q1	GC	14.03025	1.114197	8.8	8.469748	-11.9394	98.86333	-4.80136	24.5	40.69739
1993q2	GC	14.97302	-1.95443	8.8	6.906978	-11.9394	100.0933	0.007631	23.88	38.14705
1993q3	GC	13.43118	2.137272	8.8	7.028821	-11.9394	96.89	-1.18864	22.46	41.82566
1993q4	GC	11.46988	-4.07506	8.8	8.780123	-11.9394	99.09333	-0.45595	22.25	41.84963
1994q1	GC	10.60534	1.762642	8.8	8.687998	-8.2624	98.03667	1.438143	21.21	51.1623
1994q2	GC	10.21105	-3.08708	8.8	9.288945	-8.2624	99.03333	0.954054	20.3767	43.89162
1994q3	GC	11.2769	0.357714	8.8	8.766434	-8.2624	99.31	3.261119	21.3767	38.12394
1994q4	GC	10.2281	0.068646	8.8	8.231898	-8.2624	101.2567	2.236993	19.8333	36.85027
1995q1	GC	10.53053	-0.17166	8.3	6.596135	-9.07015	101.6333	2.684566	18.5833	35.12799
1995q2	GC	9.883596	-3.74963	8.3	6.286404	-9.07015	103.7333	0.91374	17.6067	36.55163
1995q3	GC	8.761712	-4.93238	8.3	6.041621	-9.07015	102.27	0.54318	16.21	38.7485
1995q4	GC	8.303927	0.059263	8.3	5.679406	-9.07015	103.4633	4.138996	15.4367	36.48309
1996q1	GC	7.442498	-1.61294	9	6.057502	-6.64392	103.3233	2.219078	15.1667	38.69093
1996q2	GC	7.535429	-4.88895	9	5.764571	-6.64392	107.45	3.244721	14.8733	36.04818
1996q3	GC	6.980716	-5.32265	9	5.785951	-6.64392	107.08	3.158334	14.4333	35.00152
1996q4	GC	6.617866	-1.421	9	5.182135	-6.64392	109.0633	0.744716	13.26	34.7881
1997q1	GC	7.45722	-2.80553	8.9	3.21278	-5.89343	108.02	3.909662	9.8	44.53544
1997q2	GC	6.671446	-4.69803	8.9	3.178554	-5.89343	108.2167	3.763419	9.583333	55.99662
1997q3	GC	6.319599	-6.27849	8.9	3.213735	-5.89343	106.08	2.869187	9.49	57.50151
1997q4	GC	5.932034	-0.52712	8.9	5.434633	-5.89343	109.96	3.758688	10.18	55.44655
1998q1	GC	4.764303	-3.07287	10.6	7.435697	-3.82035	108.09	0.585588	10.44333	53.97635
1998q2	GC	5.51124	-3.32782	10.6	5.855426	-3.82035	104.4	3.364925	7.9	83.88277
1998q3	GC	5.447586	-4.1908	10.6	6.652414	-3.82035	105.8567	4.833369	7.826667	83.69607
1998q4	GC	4.617391	-0.42655	10.6	6.015942	-3.82035	107.5233	4.340414	7.756667	77.61357
1999q1	GC	3.911939	-2.04858	11.6	5.254728	-3.09625	108.33	4.083339	6.1	110.1376
1999q2	GC	2.800396	-4.62155	11.6	5.899603	-3.09625	107.8767	3.059175	5.9	127.9723
1999q3	GC	2.393171	-7.28356	11.6	6.406829	-3.09625	105.0867	4.443617	6.566667	164.8402
1999q4	GC	2.854781	-6.88331	11.6	5.911885	-3.09625	104.6033	1.888136	6.666667	182.8247
2000q1	GC	2.939444	-8.0595	11	0.602923	-3.7342	101.64	5.648336	6.433333	167.5415
2000q2	GC	3.516715	-7.39896	11	0.743651	-3.7342	100.7867	4.932096	6.133333	144.3021
2000q3	GC	3.115461	-6.97504	11	1.622139	-3.7342	98.2	2.039131	6.066667	127.1999
2000q4	GC	3.708155	-8.34171	11	1.314079	-3.7342	99.38	4.971483	5.8	110.3761
2001q1	GC	3.128195	-5.99637	10.5	1.618072	-4.44551	100.54	4.825421	5.326667	100
2001q2	GC	2.68716	-5.96875	10.5	1.907906	-4.44551	101.0133	4.437603	5.47	95.52375
2001q3	GC	2.631445	-7.8544	10.5	1.636355	-4.44551	100.1833	4.1963	5.386667	80.20731
2001q4	GC	2.287095	-8.82782	10.5	1.155439	-4.44551	102.2933	4.125198	5.033333	80.15099
2002q1	GC	4.057519	-6.06623	9.8	-0.69505	-4.80563	102.1233	3.766428	5.353333	75.75347
2002q2	GC	3.671781	-6.93934	9.8	-0.22631	-4.80563	103.98	3.877528	5.463333	68.47961
2002q3	GC	3.443734	-3.45094	9.8	-0.0864	-4.80563	103.5333	3.817613	4.963333	62.73789
2002q4	GC	3.362477	-9.48817	9.8	-0.25354	-4.80563	105.9867	3.855344	4.71	54.39096
2003q1	GC	3.712858	-6.7406	10	-1.02929	-5.75334	107.7733	4.746326	4.31	48.07734
2003q2	GC	3.129773	-6.34879	10	-0.76521	-5.75334	111.13	4.774176	4.07	50.99581
2003q3	GC	3.251119	-4.03655	10	-1.11189	-5.75334	108.9	5.055304	4.243333	61.47617
2003q4	GC	3.528328	-9.18244	10	-1.3788	-5.75334	111.4667	5.072358	4.446667	62.36549
2004q1	GC	2.207689	-5.52488	9.5	-0.14419	-7.41477	112.2233	4.691278	4.296667	69.80656
2004q2	GC	3.101836	-5.93777	9.5	-1.01977	-7.41477	112.43	4.588762	4.463333	68.70468
2004q3	GC	3.916609	-3.13994	9.5	-1.80031	-7.41477	110.9367	4.36239	4.313334	65.08614
2004q4	GC	4.17416	-8.56718	9.5	-2.01056	-7.41477	113.8233	4.269032	3.95	73.41035
2005q1	GC	3.577044	-7.52042	9.3	-1.43671	-5.22081	113.6533	3.795317	3.766667	82.59688
2005q2	GC	3.905417	-6.01685	9.3	-1.78082	-5.22081	113.9233	3.796112	3.6	81.10572
2005q3	GC	2.691889	-5.38225	9.3	-0.56156	-5.22081	112.0433	3.732754	3.41	89.97923
2005q4	GC	2.722074	-10.5331	9.3	-0.37861	-5.22081	113.6433	3.725898	3.563333	93.87155
2006q1	GC	3.543777	-13.5374	8.7	-0.93221	-3.07459	113.1967	3.943721	3.773333	109.9444
2006q2	GC	2.748322	-11.0798	8.7	0.141178	-3.07459	115.0433	4.044767	4.28	102.9419
2006q3	GC	3.771988	-7.35027	8.7	-0.55062	-3.07459	114.3733	4.242849	4.193333	101.2018
2006q4	GC	3.319594	-12.3863	8.7	0.274873	-3.07459	116.2167	4.368165	4.033333	111.06
2007q1	GC	3.439385	-14.0106	8.1	0.380948	-3.74762	116.12	4.476824	4.26	119.5608
2007q2	GC	3.001698	-12.8882	8.1	1.063136	-3.74762	117.94	4.066119	4.57	125.4224
2007q3	GC	2.384235	-11.542	8.1	2.116266	-3.74762	117.2167	3.919513	4.656667	128.0036
2007q4	GC	2.550042	-18.0799	8.1	2.174724	-3.74762	120.34	3.401945	4.513333	132.2379
2008q1	GC	3.163825			1.316175	-2.83941	121.13	3.175527	4.393333	104.4137
2008q2	GC	3.060807			1.799659	-2.83941	124.2967	3.515809	4.816667	98.91383

Figure 5. Italy

Data for Figure 5 immediately follows

Data for Figure 5

TIME	COUNTRY	INFLATION	CURRACCTPERGDP	UNEMPRATE	REALINTRATE	FISCBALPERGDP	REALEFFEXRATE	GDP4QCHANGE	BONDRATE	REALEQUITYINDEX
1970q1	IT			3.994103		-3.2332	124.95		7.06	101.8884
1970q2	IT			3.885765		-3.2332	124.48		7.773334	94.74144
1970q3	IT			4.144036		-3.2332	124.61		8.086667	86.35113
1970q4	IT			3.975244		-3.2332	125.76		8.013333	80.04685
1971q1	IT	8.999442	1.516423	3.92204	-2.66611	-4.73139	124.77	2.301156	7.056667	74.82819
1971q2	IT	6.344412	0.385725	3.9352	-0.74775	-4.73139	123.2067	1.994926	6.99	67.51132
1971q3	IT	5.687911	2.244205	3.914499	-0.09458	-4.73139	121.5033	1.462601	7.123333	63.62977
1971q4	IT	5.914759	1.102522	4.233778	-0.40809	-4.73139	120.7267	1.913783	6.816667	59.39648
1972q1	IT	6.092136	2.270487	4.557052	-0.48547	-6.86338	120.0633	3.536957	6.673333	57.88908
1972q2	IT	5.917017	2.496682	4.604397	-0.89368	-6.86338	120.38	3.070534	6.473333	58.97651
1972q3	IT	5.375107	0.698453	4.914841	-0.59177	-6.86338	121.2567	2.955543	6.543334	60.29989
1972q4	IT	5.952105	0.171311	4.766084	-0.66544	-6.86338	122.6367	2.866729	6.676667	62.01448
1973q1	IT	8.509714	-0.44682	4.776753	-2.34305	-6.383	119.5067	2.665421	6.78	60.35135
1973q2	IT	11.87515	-2.00304	5.473915	-5.74515	-6.383	110.0567	5.663405	6.796667	73.0463
1973q3	IT	14.77848	-2.07833	4.392504	-7.15181	-6.383	107.2633	7.456456	6.993333	70.688
1973q4	IT	13.19264	-2.0997	4.126938	-5.41264	-6.383	108.7767	9.39559	7.106667	66.28029
1974q1	IT	14.96938	-4.36653	4.053973	-5.68938	-6.26175	106.3667	9.30586	7.37	65.56958
1974q2	IT	16.43653	-4.96698	3.624146	-2.2732	-6.26175	104.2733	7.303727	8.856667	60.80548
1974q3	IT	19.30224	-4.98319	3.979457	-1.73224	-6.26175	107.0633	4.338087	10.67667	45.08427
1974q4	IT	22.64265	-2.9601	4.106298	-5.37598	-6.26175	106.48	-0.18771	11.54333	38.05231
1975q1	IT	19.16936	-0.43377	4.014184	-5.38269	-10.3171	106.1133	-2.75035	10.56667	37.78999
1975q2	IT	16.61317	1.265911	4.423538	-5.89317	-10.3171	107.2133	-3.75249	10.13667	36.643
1975q3	IT	13.5755	-0.78976	4.248775	-3.95217	-10.3171	107.8067	-2.50765	9.983334	29.76084
1975q4	IT	11.94231	-1.26386	4.560122	-3.53231	-10.3171	108.1967	0.718986	9.47	28.14071
1976q1	IT	11.51592	-1.13462	4.69258	-0.69592	-7.90969	99.01	4.220392	10.18667	29.12809
1976q2	IT	16.20879	-2.20512	4.930724	1.771212	-7.90969	92.44	6.063326	12.83	24.42269
1976q3	IT	17.22123	-0.68207	4.966324	-0.33789	-7.90969	96.72	7.16161	13.21333	25.05269
1976q4	IT	19.85482	-1.33576	5.106074	-2.82816	-7.90969	96.89667	7.767299	14.39667	20.76582
1977q1	IT	21.27517	-0.22113	5.078325	-5.36184	-6.98452	96.44	6.060414	14.98667	19.13103
1977q2	IT	17.62976	0.777102	5.169799	-2.39976	-6.98452	96.68667	3.710676	15.32	16.945
1977q3	IT	16.48505	1.617068	5.476078	-3.45172	-6.98452	97.50333	0.261229	14.83667	16.44789
1977q4	IT	14.25432	1.451816	5.322473	-2.29098	-6.98452	97.28333	-0.60536	13.70333	15.33937
1978q1	IT	13.71917	1.508951	5.2689	-2.2225	-8.50526	95.73333	0.976115	13.24	14.75405
1978q2	IT	12.81179	2.53705	5.246514	-1.07846	-8.50526	96.47667	3.249505	13.03667	14.90736
1978q3	IT	12.13686	1.80917	5.28223	-0.59352	-8.50526	95.89	4.714089	12.99333	16.38902
1978q4	IT	11.88135	2.002012	5.453444	-0.39802	-8.50526	94.46333	5.37323	12.94	17.17424
1979q1	IT	11.64706	3.741518	5.566397	-0.28536	-8.26173	95.25	5.319768	12.73	17.12861
1979q2	IT	12.81999	2.440119	5.617437	-1.46613	-8.26173	97.31667	4.329258	12.73	16.93849
1979q3	IT	15.75537	0.700517	5.908144	-4.39924	-8.26173	98.57667	5.520032	13.03	18.14816
1979q4	IT	18.29805	-0.23242	5.539239	-5.29361	-8.26173	100.9167	6.334313	13.6	17.75476
1980q1	IT	20.93849	-1.18225	5.673204	-4.52906	-6.95872	104.1367	5.17678	14.26333	18.52364
1980q2	IT	20.38662	-2.47142	5.374575	-3.77885	-6.95872	103.1067	4.662599	15.04	19.16212
1980q3	IT	19.08076	-3.01927	5.69222	-2.31353	-6.95872	104.2333	2.787094	15.57667	23.13618
1980q4	IT	17.62121	-2.50629	5.556226	-0.22568	-6.95872	105.0067	1.114871	16.13	31.42663
1981q1	IT	15.78658	-3.92094	5.610913	1.626749	-10.8808	104.04	0.647424	16.58333	39.54631
1981q2	IT	16.99992	-2.38895	6.233658	2.561176	-10.8808	101.3067	0.631957	18.92333	46.99539
1981q3	IT	17.26333	-1.52734	6.347004	2.431137	-10.8808	101.16	0.83815	20.71333	36.41209
1981q4	IT	18.13166	-1.78836	6.881311	2.126106	-10.8808	100.54	0.992123	21.21	31.73418
1982q1	IT	17.24739	-2.39403	6.882819	3.228174	-10.0264	101.5	1.009946	20.58333	31.95014
1982q2	IT	15.5204	-1.00861	6.708003	4.952402	-10.0264	101.17	0.530559	20.64667	28.65042
1982q3	IT	15.60084	-2.09913	6.95158	4.162498	-10.0264	103.44	0.43076	20.04	24.98364
1982q4	IT	16.45328	-1.62832	7.130057	2.45615	-10.0264	105.8767	-0.6688	19.59	24.28633
1983q1	IT	15.27746	0.58486	7.381359	3.833108	-10.108	109.45	-0.34989	19.09	26.56656
1983q2	IT	15.27657	0.312494	7.771175	3.018427	-10.108	108.8267	-0.1858	18.29667	26.2494
1983q3	IT	13.49034	0.08168	7.602501	4.378559	-10.108	108.3367	1.712799	18.10667	26.14295
1983q4	IT	12.14285	-0.28807	8.019266	5.817148	-10.108	108.6633	4.196581	17.70333	23.84162
1984q1	IT	12.17938	0.066815	8.631135	5.580051	-11.4805	108.8333	3.7209	16.31	27.06087
1984q2	IT	10.71965	-0.94731	8.549431	6.383687	-11.4805	109.68	4.162827	15.67667	25.5669
1984q3	IT	9.971079	-1.1093	8.350615	6.932255	-11.4805	109.51	3.488321	15.36667	25.12559
1984q4	IT	8.336997	-1.05719	8.485586	8.970769	-11.4805	109.5133	1.311771	15.04333	24.31874
1985q1	IT	8.246115	-1.47098	8.469794	7.916086	-12.3779	110.0467	2.078182	13.35667	29.80956
1985q2	IT	8.808911	-1.22809	8.410313	6.661622	-12.3779	108.9233	3.068969	13.79	32.73006
1985q3	IT	9.016341	-0.8007	8.597512	5.683092	-12.3779	107.16	2.696204	13.99	39.45435
1985q4	IT	8.966613	-0.51692	8.962999	5.688921	-12.3779	109.0133	3.344747	13.71333	44.24818
1986q1	IT	8.472034	-0.0945	9.574587	7.974632	-11.9385	112.51	3.395886	13.55333	56.27399
1986q2	IT	7.549037	0.142251	9.871091	6.257097	-11.9385	113.4567	2.728383	11.33667	78.61548
1986q3	IT	6.82599	1.252718	9.763694	5.12901	-11.9385	116.2567	2.923734	10.76667	77.86607
1986q4	IT	6.146465	-0.02388	10.37016	5.219101	-11.9385	119.08	2.668896	10.21533	75.43163
1987q1	IT	5.573365	0.62024	9.903109	6.412202	-11.5219	119.4633	2.456445	9.883333	71.23441
1987q2	IT	5.645331	-0.90138	10.14738	5.150202	-11.5219	117.5067	3.314744	10.229	71.90996
1987q3	IT	5.817888	-0.13034	10.44277	5.712112	-11.5219	117.0033	2.609792	11.16667	63.44719
1987q4	IT	6.271496	-0.87547	10.49594	4.751838	-11.5219	118.3567	3.270292	11.29267	52.55711
1988q1	IT	6.948333	-0.86075	10.52854	3.723367	-11.0423	118.1167	4.322484	10.56767	46.2527
1988q2	IT	6.702746	-0.07265	10.47442	3.859487	-11.0423	116.14	3.452717	10.79833	46.94321
1988q3	IT	6.468675	-1.30582	10.39682	4.280225	-11.0423	114.78	4.469902	11.10733	48.97771
1988q4	IT	5.668115	-1.06283	10.404	5.619652	-11.0423	116.7633	4.586481	11.10967	53.48104
1989q1	IT	5.831965	-2.08364	10.32962	6.616501	-11.4158	117.79	3.744783	11.81	53.60553
1989q2	IT	5.620961	-1.09247	10.34681	7.038739	-11.4158	118.6233	3.542984	12.57633	55.11947
1989q3	IT	5.889313	-0.9049	10.32069	6.765287	-11.4158	120.7167	3.274611	13.02	61.453
1989q4	IT	6.68624	-0.94119	9.861865	6.031427	-11.4158	121.7333	3.111668	13.74267	57.67855
1990q1	IT	7.39116	-2.08573	9.433761	5.521574	-11.4401	124.3633	2.890208	13.99033	56.89867
1990q2	IT	8.009001	-1.18578	8.972621	4.020999	-11.4401	125.7633	2.763067	13.479	59.49207
1990q3	IT	8.506969	-1.03198	9.125517	2.843031	-11.4401	125.3833	1.886247	13.22	52.7743
1990q4	IT	8.375738	-1.63141	8.97683	4.250929	-11.4401	125.2233	0.210664	13.45567	42.71711
1991q1	IT	8.123569	-1.51799	8.722728	5.059764	-11.3809	126.3767	0.80789	13.783	41.93688
1991q2	IT	7.385714	-2.25361	8.608507	4.33762	-11.3809	124.46	1.044271	13.195	45.29221
1991q3	IT	6.850859	-2.54267	8.456659	4.992474	-11.3809	123.96	1.535978	13.26733	41.98467
1991q4	IT	6.711671	-1.85454	8.582762	5.371662	-11.3809	125.1767	2.687573	12.883	37.60313
1992q1	IT	5.600169	-2.34729	8.672185	6.619832	-10.3915	126.2333	2.138606	12.61933	38.35517
1992q2	IT	4.963471	-2.32321	8.536408	7.796529	-10.3915	126.0933	1.168836	12.78933	35.3412
1992q3	IT	4.114948	-2.72437	8.790662	12.31505	-10.3915	126.13	0.088725	13.80667	28.57595
1992q4	IT	2.644599	-2.06444	9.119849	11.99873	-10.3915	112.7833	-0.81185	13.84767	30.63684
1993q1	IT	3.602315	-0.29922	9.119789	8.237685	-10.0539	104.3333	-1.46908	13.131	34.49445
1993q2	IT	3.843831	0.324606	9.849442	6.992836	-10.0539	105.7167	-1.20894	12.41433	36.91169
1993q3	IT	4.030029	0.843801	10.12452	5.296638	-10.0539	104.1733	-1.01963	10.10933	40.34742
1993q4	IT	3.854952	2.329083	10.44469	4.938381	-10.0539	101.23	0.123213	9.093	39.62429
1994q1	IT	3.14331	1.380945	10.59079	5.286691	-9.09005	100.3233	0.911847	8.960667	43.94039
1994q2	IT	3.236268	0.998113	10.77478	4.773732	-9.09005	102.8167	1.909775	9.631	50.99442
1994q3	IT	3.412465	0.847388	10.86914	5.294202	-9.09005	100.4367	2.981768	11.38733	45.75804
1994q4	IT	4.118195	1.523457	11.19235	4.765138	-9.09005	99.17667	3.18897	12.09633	41.57819
1995q1	IT	3.169252	2.454326	11.36345	6.57408	-7.40766	94.72334	3.634195	12.73767	42.1779
1995q2	IT	4.659091	2.424506	11.24743	6.127575	-7.40766	89.70667	2.79877	12.69533	40.2415
1995q3	IT	5.733093	1.968862	11.47104	4.876907	-7.40766	95.48666	2.637581	11.80367	40.45315
1995q4	IT	5.759776	2.067147	11.3018	4.92689	-7.40766	97.15	2.384512	11.58667	36.26995
1996q1	IT	6.591835	3.114491	11.27481	3.358165	-6.95916	101.24	1.889921	10.54533	37.16448
1996q2	IT	4.716733	2.880446	11.36214	4.3866	-6.95916	104.9733	1.275468	9.868	39.84986
1996q3	IT	4.113681	3.415759	11.36127	4.552986	-6.95916	106.2633	0.868336	9.359667	37.14008
1996q4	IT	3.472667	3.016533	11.40108	4.087333	-6.95916	107.46	-0.14462	7.829667	38.75119
1997q1	IT	2.916725	3.360954	11.49049	4.423275	-2.6736	106.0367	0.09704	7.535666	45.23893
1997q2	IT	2.861303	2.424667	11.43258	4.085363	-2.6736	105.01	1.986891	7.373667	46.42358
1997q3	IT	2.19557	2.651219	11.32128	4.61443	-2.6736	103.89	2.171032	6.51	54.44149
1997q4	IT	2.13221	2.860417	11.47742	4.274457	-2.6736	105.6167	3.433394	6.021667	57.66389
1998q1	IT	2.199157	2.020375	11.38268	3.747509	-3.07149	105.5367	2.474774	5.335667	73.40972
1998q2	IT	2.490317	2.496821	11.58764	2.663016	-3.07149	106.1533	1.522106	5.144	87.90668
1998q3	IT	2.115118	1.839659	11.50538	2.798216	-3.07149	107.2433	1.288094	4.762	82.5434
1998q4	IT	3.558028	1.228649	11.53323	0.395305	-3.07149	107.9333	-0.14445	4.288333	74.23547
1999q1	IT	2.086128	1.206038	11.3515	1.007205	-1.77996	106.28	0.545314	4.082	86.45501
1999q2	IT	1.915073	0.990868	11.20206	0.721594	-1.77996	104.3033	0.710648	4.334667	88.39237
1999q3	IT	2.1423	0.694693	11.10682	0.561033	-1.77996	103.84	1.272094	5.116667	85.4139
1999q4	IT	0.924661	-0.18348	10.81691	2.505339	-1.77996	103.0533	3.127237	5.376667	87.70118
2000q1	IT	1.721436	0.685146	10.79003	1.820931	-0.8632	101.5767	3.63552	5.686666	109.8024
2000q2	IT	2.098621	-0.99729	10.40552	2.161746	-0.8632	100.0833	3.809061	5.548666	109.8604
2000q3	IT	1.875974	-0.78733	10.08958	2.861626	-0.8632	99.47667	4.033892	5.593667	113.2432
2000q4	IT	1.871204	-1.06258	9.698492	3.15103	-0.8632	98.85	3.726502	5.475333	110.6526
2001q1	IT	2.393749	0.493171	9.52931	2.352518	-3.10216	101.9933	3.385658	5.164667	100
2001q2	IT	2.751475	-0.52886	9.326014	1.843591	-3.10216	100.4333	2.377471	5.373667	93.92382
2001q3	IT	3.052347	-0.75284	9.074459	1.215453	-3.10216	101.1633	1.139629	5.273334	81.30647
2001q4	IT	3.50134	0.506628	8.969776	-0.05881	-3.10216	101.68	0.040738	4.936666	74.60016
2002q1	IT	3.395903	0.250313	8.707558	-0.03344	-3.01191	101.8133	-0.36584	5.250667	76.18922
2002q2	IT	2.980462	-1.04948	8.885056	0.465005	-3.01191	102.56	0.409106	5.353667	74.29486
2002q3	IT	3.281092	-0.71901	8.747396	0.076241	-3.01191	104.1467	0.768908	4.851666	60.82805
2002q4	IT	3.163519	-1.52723	8.678797	-0.05459	-3.01191	105.0933	1.000182	4.680666	57.42989
2003q1	IT	2.797568	-1.51045	8.704705	-0.114	-3.54142	107.1333	0.481396	4.24	54.79588
2003q2	IT	3.070379	-1.8278	8.515315	-0.70581	-3.54142	109.34	-0.30297	4.16	57.82163
2003q3	IT	3.735677	-0.91363	8.591487	-1.59644	-3.54142	109.3733	-0.07968	4.333333	59.4976
2003q4	IT	2.665168	-0.98961	8.402744	-0.51563	-3.54142	110.34	0.099432	4.45	62.6459
2004q1	IT	3.339	-0.40214	8.315069	-1.2755	-3.56095	111.4567	0.906767	4.276033	64.60803
2004q2	IT	2.991589	-0.94666	8.173579	-0.90952	-3.56095	110.2167	1.683253	4.4626	65.19093
2004q3	IT	1.58027	-0.58117	8.010659	0.53603	-3.56095	110.9033	1.715178	4.3226	64.37203
2004q4	IT	2.510506	-1.8178	7.963698	-0.34691	-3.56095	111.72	1.121372	3.973467	69.12096
2005q1	IT	1.622308	-1.31682	7.901073	0.518025	-4.39653	112.01	0.439255	3.742367	74.99308
2005q2	IT	1.858595	-1.54196	7.842597	0.266005	-4.39653	110.7633	0.645017	3.536933	74.63943
2005q3	IT	2.070981	-1.95104	7.743966	0.059353	-4.39653	110.4233	0.651275	3.391467	78.86396
2005q4	IT	2.669369	-1.67374	7.623195	-0.3259	-4.39653	110.0533	0.986546	3.55092	78.45345
2006q1	IT	2.073113	-2.25039	7.283401	0.538453	-3.38537	110.4467	1.815312	3.7212	85.88808
2006q2	IT	2.482336	-2.36205	6.921201	0.407164	-3.38537	111.06	1.686014	4.266467	85.3693
2006q3	IT	1.739836	-3.34119	6.667952	1.481531	-3.38537	111.7767	1.58599	4.171	85.27305
2006q4	IT	0.617877	-2.35922	6.500338	2.97659	-3.38537	112	2.44376	4.0259	92.65474
2007q1	IT	2.231076	-2.13933	6.189781	1.589257	-1.53994	112.5467	2.051502	4.2397	95.77828
2007q2	IT	1.617416	-2.20748	6.112408	2.447417	-1.53994	112.8533	1.688524	4.543967	98.68098
2007q3	IT	2.415348	-2.82041	6.211929	2.085152	-1.53994	113.5433	1.541259	4.639133	92.11681
2007q4	IT	2.696808	-2.65148	6.349906	2.027958	-1.53994	114.57	0.13587	4.526233	88.43726
2008q1	IT	2.117509	-3.01071	6.673216	2.362491	-2.50607	115.9833	0.333603	4.376933	74.9073
2008q2	IT	3.610657	-3.26424	6.833196	1.249809	-2.50607	117.2033	-0.2154	4.7801	71.07245

Figure 6. New Zealand

Data for Figure 6 immediately follows

Data for Figure 6

TIME	COUNTRY	INFLATION	CURRACCTPERGDP	UNEMPRATE	REALINTRATE	FISCBALPERGDP	TERMSOFTRADE4QCHANGE	GDP4QCHANGE	BONDRATE	REALEQUITYINDEX
1970q1	NZ			0.160781					5.536667	261.6884
1970q2	NZ			0.141331					5.526667	251.4914
1970q3	NZ			0.134924					5.476666	232.6536
1970q4	NZ			0.141477					5.49	204.9481
1971q1	NZ	10.56024		0.133753	-3.56025		-2.95166	-1.42362	5.51	203.8637
1971q2	NZ	14.36003	0.281278	0.220442	-7.36004		6.388863	0.21132	5.51	193.5367
1971q3	NZ	12.56736	1.028805	0.303531	-5.56736		6.557409	8.693936	5.523334	177.4511
1971q4	NZ	9.183656	0.437736	0.421051	-2.18366		16.44195	3.11707	5.523334	169.1586
1972q1	NZ	18.21579	-0.41257	0.505809	-12.2158		18.88511	-1.0531	5.53	166.5159
1972q2	NZ	23.06622	1.982412	0.491069	-17.0662		12.69513	8.87635	5.523334	154.4419
1972q3	NZ	3.142109	2.298766	0.521385	2.857891		13.25346	-4.71592	5.51	185.3966
1972q4	NZ	-0.96316	-0.28548	0.471274	6.963162		9.093231	3.262468	5.53	195.0667
1973q1	NZ	7.760776	4.826535	0.307896	-1.76078		15.80725	13.65342	5.54	186.3131
1973q2	NZ	-1.65199	4.128906	0.225023	7.651993		21.43951	2.688694	5.586667	195.4829
1973q3	NZ	15.79296	-1.25681	0.162002	-9.79296		20.52445	3.614182	6.01	198.0811
1973q4	NZ	18.68902	-0.26658	0.099991	-12.689		15.41855	14.31273	6.05	172.9999
1974q1	NZ	1.629667	-4.8365	0.069796	7.080333		1.423687	6.447002	6.046667	178.6609
1974q2	NZ	-1.67414	-11.0625	0.070711	10.85414		-18.3927	14.76598	6.08	185.2116
1974q3	NZ	-0.1847	-12.7304	0.075101	11.3947		-27.0098	20.70049	6.096667	146.3453
1974q4	NZ	-2.15129	-15.941	0.09825	14.65129		-33.1673	1.198607	6.106667	125.7143
1975q1	NZ	4.994026	-15.6115	0.262949	5.215974		-41.4915	-2.41586	6.106667	136.1133
1975q2	NZ	15.54673	-10.5094	0.308592	-7.04673		-27.1368	-9.72582	6.103333	138.7259
1975q3	NZ	13.77189	-7.34961	0.370309	-6.51856		-19.5708	-6.86869	6.453333	120.1731
1975q4	NZ	16.00722	-8.25314	0.383928	-8.82056		-18.6501	-1.96313	6.643333	122.0507
1976q1	NZ	21.2351	-10.0978	0.468437	-13.9418		0.16939	0.855764	7.48	121.3769
1976q2	NZ	21.99414	-6.28837	0.399014	-14.2841		-0.28602	5.030366	8.6	109.6913
1976q3	NZ	15.96369	-5.98916	0.41506	-7.09703		3.127956	1.30147	8.58	122.3613
1976q4	NZ	12.58928	-5.76898	0.402751	-2.83595		10.80113	5.586025	8.706667	116.1994
1977q1	NZ	14.89523	-5.51578	0.366986	-1.51856		6.648154	2.960519	8.703333	99.96578
1977q2	NZ	10.55063	-4.89891	0.397595	3.659368		5.916267	0.971558	8.65	94.26595
1977q3	NZ	16.24732	-6.31601	0.561818	-1.52065		2.836281	-1.14955	9.52	83.69324
1977q4	NZ	21.79792	-5.41456	1.00128	-9.33792		-1.31978	-8.2643	10.08333	76.87005
1978q1	NZ	14.62136	-2.10788	1.401133	-2.70136		-1.9621	-13.7991	9.993333	77.0666
1978q2	NZ	8.354879	-3.24162	1.749449	2.561788		-2.65425	-5.4506	9.99	84.44028
1978q3	NZ	16.14405	-4.31878	1.955163	-5.99406		1.381808	-6.20994	9.916667	78.62577
1978q4	NZ	16.77215	-2.05081	1.724537	-5.85548		6.806196	-0.93454	10.01667	72.78498
1979q1	NZ	11.36724	-2.91482	1.702078	1.422757		7.783825	8.558686	10.05667	75.11095
1979q2	NZ	18.26354	-5.61867	1.943295	-3.84687		13.35807	-3.58468	12.74333	74.1268
1979q3	NZ	15.29587	-3.22948	1.853941	-0.19254		6.901166	0.435721	12.36517	72.41962
1979q4	NZ	13.7389	-2.68658	1.91421	2.457766		1.591753	0.694459	12.98	73.2802
1980q1	NZ	17.40565	-6.02004	1.99132	-1.67565		-4.33398	-0.69942	13.48667	73.07698
1980q2	NZ	16.48005	-2.95845	2.34322	-2.34005		-13.0639	0.697064	13.46667	78.58023
1980q3	NZ	11.78664	-3.71064	2.915435	1.710023		-10.8429	0.737659	13.21	83.83492
1980q4	NZ	13.15644	-4.17724	3.225645	0.943558		-7.2919	0.841174	12.97	92.50294
1981q1	NZ	15.25481	-3.24008	3.405124	-0.53148		-3.10789	2.487253	12.88667	97.2437
1981q2	NZ	15.89237	-4.35196	3.488204	-1.40237		-0.96991	5.104731	12.86667	106.4332
1981q3	NZ	16.21761	-5.22403	3.418501	-0.56761		0.61368	6.227088	12.89667	101.72
1981q4	NZ	14.20375	-6.33358	3.381138	1.962918		-1.87965	4.38377	12.68	95.99575
1982q1	NZ	13.23168	-7.32924	3.41475	3.931657		-2.0463	2.359505	12.84667	99.18208
1982q2	NZ	9.94326	-9.21147	3.424439	7.143406		-1.76551	3.23934	12.96	90.16665
1982q3	NZ	11.17236	-6.51113	3.589113	5.614308		-2.02946	3.540668	12.88	84.75961
1982q4	NZ	7.802793	-5.39235	4.29006	9.190541		-3.89101	4.072998	12.88667	80.19757
1983q1	NZ	6.344702	-2.27018	5.023689	8.288631		-4.90875	-0.56229	12.80333	85.34722
1983q2	NZ	8.530989	-3.11465	5.534843	6.285678		-2.73677	2.138547	13.84667	100.0801
1983q3	NZ	6.780645	-4.88926	5.643576	4.599355		-1.4712	1.019314	11.52	115.3462
1983q4	NZ	7.699239	-5.86311	5.424239	3.814095		1.588506	1.751384	10.56	132.3767
1984q1	NZ	5.526581	-7.32647	5.123724	8.016752		0.73652	13.73624	10.93667	155.7484
1984q2	NZ	5.343323	-7.63417	4.625427	9.44001		1.556789	6.439959	9.173333	149.8559
1984q3	NZ	5.708352	-8.29166	4.535484	9.841648		-3.3516	5.630692	13.53	137.1837
1984q4	NZ	7.122029	-9.43351	4.127899	9.091304		-5.93915	6.973933	16.8	142.2106
1985q1	NZ	11.98476	-6.13926	3.720701	9.365236		-2.87244	0.985099	17.29333	143.2744
1985q2	NZ	14.10166	-6.9579	3.424879	9.248343		-3.64575	3.288641	17.89333	144.5652
1985q3	NZ	15.29808	-8.32393	3.44548	10.48526		1.463343	1.115351	17.8	155.5182
1985q4	NZ	15.66569	-6.54951	3.917343	7.070975		5.070752	1.042126	17.64333	152.0311
1986q1	NZ	13.18878	-12.5285	4.186321	9.534557	-6.37457	0.757401	-6.36682	18.11	176.1103
1986q2	NZ	13.63088	-5.09468	4.078014	4.575789	-6.37457	5.399842	2.161564	16.12	201.307
1986q3	NZ	13.2913	-3.78443	4.0732	3.032033	-6.37457	4.438663	8.012592	15.88333	242.4011
1986q4	NZ	16.25451	-4.03492	4.102259	2.792152	-6.37457	3.210155	-1.81295	15.67667	287.1624
1987q1	NZ	16.97468	-6.58995	4	7.958649	-2.07667	11.72338	4.357078	16.39667	234.3499
1987q2	NZ	13.91839	-4.72932	4.12007	8.774939	-2.07667	7.455558	-0.43265	15.73	211.4036
1987q3	NZ	11.64759	-4.1054	4.058824	6.902413	-2.07667	6.337943	-3.58998	15.63333	243.5109
1987q4	NZ	7.505	-4.26067	4.304245	10.735	-2.07667	10.19124	2.89356	15.06333	154.2898
1988q1	NZ	8.119152	-1.61761	4.809976	8.454182	-4.56641	7.382758	4.728398	13.61333	118.7739
1988q2	NZ	6.473908	-2.04368	5.310263	9.516092	-4.56641	10.95516	1.512218	12.84667	123.7945
1988q3	NZ	9.213829	-0.29501	6.235012	5.422837	-4.56641	12.69617	1.441004	12.73	119.2635
1988q4	NZ	7.29663	0.104527	6.197352	7.07337	-4.56641	3.470119	2.836775	13.27333	112.992
1989q1	NZ	4.451628	-0.66467	7.009063	9.055039	-3.41494	0.485719	1.498871	13.23667	113.7309
1989q2	NZ	5.67505	-3.77387	7.290401	7.77495	-3.41494	1.683536	2.453103	13.20667	110.1659
1989q3	NZ	3.407478	-4.98426	7.216495	9.859188	-3.41494	-0.71787	-1.98621	12.47	127.4408
1989q4	NZ	6.375546	-5.48341	7.082325	7.557787	-3.41494	4.499589	0.056613	12.40333	117.2678
1990q1	NZ	5.720116	-2.34363	6.996381	8.086551	-4.56108	5.825112	-0.02133	12.19	102.5588
1990q2	NZ	3.71396	-4.09184	7.5179	9.91604	-4.56108	-2.65471	-1.40078	12.29333	100.4477
1990q3	NZ	3.327126	-3.74968	7.875895	10.95954	-4.56108	-2.91289	2.217426	12.55333	94.07479
1990q4	NZ	-0.10616	-2.58624	8.739595	13.95283	-4.56108	-7.65164	1.786973	12.74333	72.32533
1991q1	NZ	0.140553	-2.5196	9.526628	11.94945	-3.48342	-10.3417	-2.20478	11.63	72.39246
1991q2	NZ	0.609555	-3.60016	10.14749	9.817111	-3.48342	-4.1669	-1.67719	10.19333	78.85699
1991q3	NZ	0.258967	-2.40639	10.89517	9.071033	-3.48342	-4.05402	-1.39124	9.71	77.65364
1991q4	NZ	1.230518	-2.53503	10.71006	6.782815	-3.48342	-2.13385	-2.38547	8.906667	82.45011
1992q1	NZ	1.287755	-4.61416	10.65333	6.128911	-3.03229	-1.42316	1.186744	9.12	80.30984
1992q2	NZ	1.725695	-2.00319	10.17049	5.164304	-3.03229	-2.96298	2.383078	8.783334	83.67052
1992q3	NZ	0.087439	-4.39185	10.25943	6.105894	-3.03229	-0.9981	0.054174	7.923333	83.45259
1992q4	NZ	2.148064	-5.75051	10.31653	4.271936	-3.03229	2.478697	0.122611	7.78	82.45477
1993q1	NZ	3.759519	-2.50623	9.800469	3.787148	-0.39786	5.174207	1.896417	7.7	84.48279
1993q2	NZ	2.590712	-3.30716	9.859977	4.125955	-0.39786	4.668016	2.553289	7.306667	90.53835
1993q3	NZ	3.990383	-4.13819	9.23345	1.549617	-0.39786	2.910822	6.447071	6.586667	106.4189
1993q4	NZ	0.861645	-5.74722	9.158986	4.655022	-0.39786	1.837066	7.496919	6.143333	119.4858
1994q1	NZ	-0.37284	-2.13435	9.018265	5.282844	3.086715	1.133036	7.733263	5.93	125.9267
1994q2	NZ	0.76396	-4.42634	8.309619	5.389373	3.086715	1.419347	6.649169	7.213333	116.2082
1994q3	NZ	1.252382	-3.31976	7.692307	5.957618	3.086715	0.533347	4.873593	8.446667	114.7518
1994q4	NZ	2.69057	-5.4809	7.386682	5.976097	3.086715	1.908076	4.894628	8.913333	110.2099
1995q1	NZ	2.301213	-5.02315	6.539967	7.06212	2.918918	2.558312	3.87154	8.51	108.159
1995q2	NZ	2.033521	-4.57085	6.173526	7.083146	2.918918	0.664839	4.79231	7.593333	113.7566
1995q3	NZ	1.655926	-4.51129	6.060606	7.374074	2.918918	0.004317	4.874636	7.776667	113.7612
1995q4	NZ	2.548834	-5.95612	6.215921	5.984499	2.918918	2.115722	3.391391	7.226666	114.9293
1996q1	NZ	3.215869	-6.44397	6.165495	5.447464	2.904025	0.298883	3.050099	7.366667	113.9197
1996q2	NZ	2.797678	-5.79033	5.958132	6.892322	2.904025	2.384088	2.750455	8.53	111.4918
1996q3	NZ	2.644919	-4.80229	6.210191	7.318415	2.904025	4.365593	3.445431	8.336667	116.0157
1996q4	NZ	1.293903	-6.06337	6.046014	7.592763	2.904025	-1.91918	3.754081	7.34	124.3293
1997q1	NZ	0.236883	-7.06682	6.499733	7.293117	1.654355	0.43407	2.040619	7.486667	123.0301
1997q2	NZ	0.671342	-8.81868	6.56432	6.485325	1.654355	-4.11391	3.849757	7.616667	125.8228
1997q3	NZ	1.026869	-4.88329	6.723134	7.036464	1.654355	-4.1014	3.303158	6.913333	132.7122
1997q4	NZ	0.403427	-4.69627	6.73026	7.48324	1.654355	-0.36178	2.229698	6.75	121.987
1998q1	NZ	1.037329	-3.02689	7.13908	7.909338	0.121627	-0.89181	2.150015	6.833333	117.5507
1998q2	NZ	0.267906	-6.28311	7.606973	8.828761	0.121627	-0.63532	-0.31036	6.693333	110.3413
1998q3	NZ	0.190474	-3.72769	7.407407	6.586193	0.121627	-1.14399	-0.34591	6.146667	96.87186
1998q4	NZ	1.563853	-2.44083	7.663848	3.012814	0.121627	-0.36029	1.530795	5.476666	101.856
1999q1	NZ	-0.02149	-4.68877	7.146611	4.473361	-0.15356	-3.83023	3.828788	5.662533	114.229
1999q2	NZ	1.071808	-5.04002	6.977964	3.609725	-0.15356	0.906771	4.102466	6.1107	113.66
1999q3	NZ	0.681239	-5.91095	6.768101	4.127861	-0.15356	0.46295	5.444693	6.7759	112.6592
1999q4	NZ	-0.22719	-8.98688	6.214099	5.597621	-0.15356	-0.5879	4.807605	7.099867	113.8465
2000q1	NZ	1.837703	-5.88278	6.276151	4.116898	1.646571	-0.80521	5.676168	7.281933	108.3329
2000q2	NZ	1.116007	-5.41126	6.128863	5.59976	1.646571	-3.11858	4.279928	6.930367	106.5776
2000q3	NZ	2.301632	-5.3414	5.809129	4.438367	1.646571	0.098243	2.733528	6.713233	106.8608
2000q4	NZ	4.699104	-3.96101	5.612771	1.970063	1.646571	-0.65783	2.447315	6.481367	96.58554
2001q1	NZ	4.519197	-3.20773	5.317501	1.901503	2.144318	6.285138	0.12066	6.017066	100
2001q2	NZ	5.882329	-1.8822	5.271238	-0.02506	2.144318	7.108078	2.83526	6.501167	101.7864
2001q3	NZ	3.406005	-2.27965	5.209397	2.324129	2.144318	3.122944	2.6855	6.614867	99.5505
2001q4	NZ	2.864586	-3.72228	5.395865	2.098014	2.144318	3.059128	3.950401	6.440233	100.3993
2002q1	NZ	3.014387	-5.13511	5.194805	2.019647	3.248181	-1.07763	4.48664	6.691667	103.0274
2002q2	NZ	0.406653	-2.29823	5.124378	5.414747	3.248181	-1.60481	3.38101	6.771767	104.2555
2002q3	NZ	2.457522	-3.97849	5.409429	3.453012	3.248181	-1.53387	4.92656	6.345733	99.88941
2002q4	NZ	-1.30084	-4.14283	4.903418	7.199802	3.248181	-1.48655	5.535555	6.296267	101.011
2003q1	NZ	-0.98296	-3.23238	4.839506	6.81136	3.796785	0.41615	5.529432	5.9697	98.08836
2003q2	NZ	0.806895	-4.85234	4.710501	4.639272	3.796785	4.967571	4.747275	5.602167	104.6007
2003q3	NZ	1.389249	-4.52439	4.423918	3.733251	3.796785	3.957973	4.316449	5.803767	107.0522
2003q4	NZ	4.352754	-4.50555	4.648911	0.941146	3.796785	8.397288	2.66914	6.090667	111.609
2004q1	NZ	3.941256	-5.25686	4.148577	1.551944	4.263454	7.222363	4.243995	5.860567	114.5315
2004q2	NZ	4.064413	-5.57944	4.074784	1.788121	4.263454	3.532882	5.017934	6.1953	116.9055
2004q3	NZ	3.692947	-7.67687	3.804089	2.746919	4.263454	4.906096	3.966692	6.1801	121.0364
2004q4	NZ	3.136867	-6.98855	3.655108	3.590966	4.263454	2.107312	3.620499	6.0278	125.9565
2005q1	NZ	2.188267	-7.20903	3.79036	4.671267	4.492721	2.404333	2.056382	6.0353	131.2882
2005q2	NZ	2.505853	-8.17323	3.693315	4.53758	4.492721	0.668582	2.985375	5.835667	125.4598
2005q3	NZ	1.08473	-9.51534	3.647276	5.964504	4.492721	-0.18123	3.205205	5.742933	134.9051
2005q4	NZ	1.326672	-9.12613	3.647276	6.164395	4.492721	-1.99186	2.502722	5.8871	129.0771
2006q1	NZ	2.093266	-10.3281	3.872437	5.459268	3.732765	-4.19862	3.060292	5.712934	130.306
2006q2	NZ	1.419828	-8.35138	3.589278	6.057438	3.732765	-3.96487	1.529707	5.795633	133.4298
2006q3	NZ	3.055193	-7.44381	3.769301	4.456407	3.732765	-2.89574	1.74296	5.8397	126.8074
2006q4	NZ	2.989064	-8.88949	3.772727	4.65527	3.732765	-0.28886	3.368615	5.773033	136.9649
2007q1	NZ	3.133078	-8.6171	3.721973	4.642156	3.696831	1.909885	2.969268	5.9131	141.8842
2007q2	NZ	4.226906	-8.48904	3.581021	3.904394	3.696831	5.271947	3.43867	6.313433	143.176
2007q3	NZ	3.780979	-8.71028	3.542601	4.874421	3.696831	8.110347	2.965214	6.443333	137.3975
2007q4	NZ	5.518546	-7.04536	3.383793	3.249254	3.696831	10.67091	2.334449	6.384233	130.2022
2008q1	NZ	5.673299	-7.78712	3.68705	3.1508	2.492446	11.52598	0.943266	6.349267	110.948
2008q2	NZ	3.600973	-10.3176	3.941541	5.149861	2.492446	4.496984	-0.34976	6.440033	106.2983

Figure 7. Portugal

Data for Figure 7 immediately follows

Data for Figure 7

TIME	COUNTRY	INFLATION	CURRACCTPERGDP	UNEMPRATE	REALINTRATE	FISCBALPERGDP	REALEFFEXRATE	GDP4QCHANGE	BONDRATE	REALEQUITYINDEX
1970q1	PT			5.908966			92.55		6
1970q2	PT			4.816505			90.70333		6.5
1970q3	PT			3.680902			89.50333		6.75
1970q4	PT			2.549015			89.42667		6.75
1971q1	PT	3.291553		2.550741	1.303089		90.28667	7.361122	6.916667
1971q2	PT	4.508738		2.582142	0.160012		89.77333	6.336701	7
1971q3	PT	5.420996		2.540993	-0.75225		90.87334	5.997594	7
1971q4	PT	6.237544		2.531311	-1.56879		93.29	6.02852	7
1972q1	PT	6.948552		2.536866	-2.2798		91.38667	6.411864	7
1972q2	PT	7.470819		2.579985	-2.80207		92.03333	7.047939	7
1972q3	PT	7.800147		2.538925	-3.1314		89.97667	7.917428	7
1972q4	PT	7.704428		2.548759	-3.03568		89.71667	9.362931	7
1973q1	PT	7.203939		2.551482	-2.53519		91.68667	11.33067	7.25
1973q2	PT	7.711636		2.588131	-3.04289		91.46	11.79244	7.25
1973q3	PT	9.175294		2.549496	-4.50654		93.08334	10.85354	7.25
1973q4	PT	11.84583		2.579333	-7.17709		92.50333	8.584364	7.25
1974q1	PT	15.66187		2.461741	-10.7708	-3.2	97.21667	5.05788	7.75
1974q2	PT	17.75666		2.390249	-12.8656	-3.2	101.42	2.183389	7.75
1974q3	PT	18.34527		2.262384	-12.5649	-3.2	103.5533	-0.1208	8.916667
1974q4	PT	17.69299		2.206565	-11.468	-3.2	105.66	-2.5244	9.5
1975q1	PT	15.97364	-1.90071	2.896211	-8.85936	-7.1	104.8	-5.08619	10.5
1975q2	PT	15.09567	-3.50991	3.609614	-7.98138	-7.1	105.76	-5.90672	10.5
1975q3	PT	14.77098	-5.15866	4.275107	-7.6567	-7.1	104.75	-4.93629	10.5
1975q4	PT	14.21811	-5.52436	4.982006	-7.10382	-7.1	105.3367	-1.84007	10.5
1976q1	PT	13.27172	-6.34653	5.438432	-4.8235	-10.2	110.9867	3.365344	10.75
1976q2	PT	13.5296	-4.81635	5.91322	-5.08139	-10.2	103.0433	6.729001	10.75
1976q3	PT	14.95341	-6.90695	6.378401	-6.50519	-10.2	101.1067	8.237573	11.25
1976q4	PT	17.80026	-7.94925	6.852674	-9.35204	-10.2	104.1633	8.283598	11.25
1977q1	PT	21.92805	-5.02905	7.113524	-13.0352	-7.5	99.52333	6.932094	11.75
1977q2	PT	24.00091	-6.96678	7.380044	-14.2188	-7.5	95.02666	5.855874	12.75
1977q3	PT	24.35698	-4.02907	7.666828	-13.3891	-7.5	94	5.030599	14.16667
1977q4	PT	23.5137	-2.5997	7.949315	-10.1744	-7.5	91.21	4.051122	17
1978q1	PT	21.74287	-2.63157	8.078596	-8.40359	-7.29467	90.02	2.915391	17.53333
1978q2	PT	20.55016	-2.36859	8.225817	-4.83945	-7.29467	87.53667	2.405883	18.4
1978q3	PT	19.74541	-2.65193	8.388859	-2.84898	-7.29467	82.51334	2.507165	19.96667
1978q4	PT	18.89428	-0.40225	8.517219	-1.99785	-7.29467	82.37666	3.273887	20.06667
1979q1	PT	17.91784	0.228864	8.507153	-1.02141	-6.16517	80.8	4.686827	20.33333
1979q2	PT	17.44715	0.800214	8.556241	-0.55072	-6.16517	81.88667	5.546554	20.1
1979q3	PT	17.46954	1.366239	8.612459	-0.57311	-6.16517	80.48	5.867528	19.96667
1979q4	PT	18.10902	-2.92061	8.557135	-1.21259	-6.16517	81.19	5.820263	19.66667
1980q1	PT	19.30257	-2.15246	8.38129	-2.40614	-7.36376	82.82667	5.419367	19.86667
1980q2	PT	19.60532	-2.37995	8.408738	-2.70889	-7.36376	83.56667	4.905003	19.83333
1980q3	PT	19.17688	-4.00018	8.424776	-2.28045	-7.36376	82.41333	4.278235	19.83333
1980q4	PT	18.1061	-4.72764	8.156955	-1.20967	-7.36376	82.98333	3.380726	20.06667
1981q1	PT	16.52937	-14.3873	7.892299	0.367064	-8.88317	86.21667	2.21501	19.86667
1981q2	PT	15.87798	-14.6538	8.108394	1.018445	-8.88317	88.32333	1.507529	20.13333
1981q3	PT	15.97452	-13.3223	8.279432	1.21834	-8.88317	90.27666	1.248606	20.8
1981q4	PT	16.54559	-17.9613	7.874459	0.795487	-8.88317	90.55334	1.457037	21.76667
1982q1	PT	17.47269	-10.3825	7.474865	-0.13162	-7.28709	93.25333	2.126133	21.76667
1982q2	PT	18.32052	-12.6108	7.95033	0.206266	-7.28709	92.51	2.378503	23.43333
1982q3	PT	19.13414	-11.6064	8.367414	-0.0145	-7.28709	83.86	2.21949	23.63333
1982q4	PT	20.10582	-8.61069	7.758163	-0.98618	-7.28709	83.02666	1.729979	23.8
1983q1	PT	21.25133	-7.91313	7.310878	-2.13169	-5.04586	85.53333	0.913586	22.43333
1983q2	PT	21.98257	-6.30313	7.525289	1.138859	-5.04586	85.1	0.174838	27
1983q3	PT	22.35494	-4.08848	9.019104	1.359348	-5.04586	78.47667	-0.49112	27.86667
1983q4	PT	22.491	-4.88224	8.251592	2.409004	-5.04586	81.23	-1.29215	28.9
1984q1	PT	22.4554	-2.73111	7.841605	2.444597	-5.44346	82.69	-2.23509	29.2
1984q2	PT	22.33591	-2.99287	8.554214	2.564085	-5.44346	83.68333	-2.48939	29.06667
1984q3	PT	22.03983	-1.21099	9.57378	2.860165	-5.44346	85.01667	-2.0467	30.4
1984q4	PT	21.35423	-2.82321	8.828573	3.545767	-5.44346	84.08667	-0.81719	30.3
1985q1	PT	20.22049	-1.32155	8.156087	4.086649	-8.66308	86.87666	1.197379	30.4
1985q2	PT	19.50007	1.404634	8.83336	4.510645	-8.66308	86.16333	2.621733	30.1
1985q3	PT	19.21449	0.855693	9.477921	2.659086	-8.66308	84.11	3.450308	28.5
1985q4	PT	19.57506	4.031577	8.767869	-0.19173	-8.66308	83.11333	3.785921	27.13333
1986q1	PT	20.53918	2.889735	8.755532	-2.52918	-7.32335	85.04667	3.636786	24.86667
1986q2	PT	20.11635	3.309139	8.87375	-4.77302	-7.32335	85.10667	3.754477	23.4
1986q3	PT	18.488	3.411843	9.65029	-3.298	-7.32335	82.68	4.130661	20.73333
1986q4	PT	15.6429	2.837394	7.633549	-1.93623	-7.32335	82.12	4.688624	20.7
1987q1	PT	11.7353	2.570516	7.601748	1.661366	-6.61029	82.77333	5.420563	20.06667
1987q2	PT	9.443525	0.414261	7.154446	3.999808	-6.61029	82.36333	6.007831	19.06667
1987q3	PT	8.576004	0.369772	8.193797	6.093996	-6.61029	81.42667	6.453747	19.23333
1987q4	PT	8.861986	0.642108	6.054697	5.091347	-6.61029	81.29333	6.827142	18.43333
1988q1	PT	10.17186	-1.22396	5.91111	3.241471	-3.42569	82.02333	7.12977	17.8	86.04201
1988q2	PT	10.81007	-1.48192	6.157338	1.989926	-3.42569	81.96667	7.281573	17.1	69.62218
1988q3	PT	10.85845	-2.05751	6.424577	2.104882	-3.42569	82.63	7.290196	16.73333	63.04956
1988q4	PT	10.47825	-2.7196	5.209307	2.218421	-3.42569	83.98666	7.184721	16.86667	60.17781
1989q1	PT	9.732089	0.871706	5.226829	2.764578	-2.81855	85.59	6.971252	17.9	60.51029
1989q2	PT	9.556842	-0.34431	5.03625	4.831683	-2.81855	85.70333	6.6053	19.16667	57.1966
1989q3	PT	9.898048	-0.37649	5.95455	6.205284	-2.81855	86.63667	6.092696	19.83333	62.14028
1989q4	PT	10.79995	0.960064	4.609071	5.746715	-2.81855	86.89667	5.337549	20.4	73.50587
1990q1	PT	12.21808	0.334277	5.122153	5.061919	-6.08353	89.11333	4.346828	20.76667	64.7925
1990q2	PT	12.81759	-0.15253	4.248178	3.759074	-6.08353	90.43333	3.765048	20.13333	61.21092
1990q3	PT	12.65927	0.575717	5.313622	4.050733	-6.08353	91.24	3.577704	20.96667	54.17298
1990q4	PT	11.75897	-1.6338	4.689623	5.284363	-6.08353	93.79667	3.81844	21.4	44.06968
1991q1	PT	10.16637	-1.90188	3.982892	7.29696	-6.93601	95.87334	4.473822	22.5	44.49698
1991q2	PT	9.329039	-0.72757	4.366327	8.464294	-6.93601	96.20333	4.644	22	45.11229
1991q3	PT	9.204517	0.087298	4.654416	8.722149	-6.93601	98.25333	4.343112	20.86667	42.37588
1991q4	PT	9.796256	-0.63523	4.161814	7.97041	-6.93601	98.16666	3.653252	19.76667	38.24965
1992q1	PT	11.06239	2.306788	3.609662	6.23761	-4.16384	100.9667	2.583944	21.66667	35.37398
1992q2	PT	11.46139	0.861891	3.982188	5.068609	-4.16384	106.11	1.582044	21.13333	36.04348
1992q3	PT	11.06735	-2.15619	4.279778	4.145983	-4.16384	106.4167	0.63805	20.4	33.8435
1992q4	PT	9.926733	-1.68978	4.531416	5.4866	-4.16384	106.8133	-0.45696	19.33333	29.84183
1993q1	PT	8.092528	-1.24157	4.644168	6.014247	-7.50315	106.2133	-1.71287	19	30.64226
1993q2	PT	7.017993	1.43362	5.379527	7.408564	-7.50315	103.4067	-2.35787	18.46667	32.40065
1993q3	PT	6.617965	0.380323	5.758952	4.235368	-7.50315	98.58	-2.38577	10.25667	38.74816
1993q4	PT	6.781812	0.84387	6.243578	4.014855	-7.50315	98.36667	-1.80161	9.283334	41.89991
1994q1	PT	7.452143	-3.89883	6.43167	2.780524	-7.2498	98.91333	-0.59887	8.826667	47.40294
1994q2	PT	7.525558	1.783325	6.838882	4.689775	-7.2498	98.54667	0.489136	10.02	44.79946
1994q3	PT	7.037566	-3.50076	6.984388	4.7311	-7.2498	100.73	1.452386	11.5	43.25558
1994q4	PT	6.048494	-3.6023	7.131591	4.161506	-7.2498	101.3467	2.486284	11.56667	44.47282
1995q1	PT	4.081074	-0.37629	7.103012	6.445926	-5.0352	103.79	4.377739	11.82333	42.65464
1995q2	PT	3.699991	-0.4597	7.172747	6.500342	-5.0352	103.64	4.252829	11.99	43.03809
1995q3	PT	2.966674	-1.32014	7.079282	6.370326	-5.0352	103.1733	4.123568	11.38333	41.45795
1995q4	PT	2.784111	1.58152	7.25209	6.298223	-5.0352	103.1367	4.024338	10.66333	41.00316
1996q1	PT	3.493752	-3.33747	7.200116	4.672915	-4.47321	103.1333	2.675471	9.45	43.42016
1996q2	PT	2.0826	-4.23111	7.451618	5.250733	-4.47321	103.3733	3.697931	8.97	46.35303
1996q3	PT	2.244043	-3.32615	7.30358	4.98929	-4.47321	104.3333	4.344973	8.58	48.8802
1996q4	PT	2.440273	-5.77855	7.059162	4.29306	-4.47321	104.4467	3.486773	7.236667	50.72829
1997q1	PT	3.328845	-5.89753	7.110369	2.904488	-3.51154	103.81	4.23252	6.75	59.88919
1997q2	PT	3.777185	-4.92921	6.640913	2.089482	-3.51154	102.9967	4.14296	6.566667	66.7626
1997q3	PT	4.007281	-5.58063	6.887597	1.559385	-3.51154	100.5433	3.663999	6.246666	78.89307
1997q4	PT	3.86465	-7.12297	6.332339	1.43535	-3.51154	101.2067	4.365335	5.87	80.47272
1998q1	PT	3.174653	-6.87477	5.846184	1.525347	-3.39215	101.24	4.262231	5.323333	101.5311
1998q2	PT	4.022749	-6.76425	4.558022	0.443918	-3.39215	102.4367	4.090409	5.136667	125.3454
1998q3	PT	3.678039	-6.14372	4.693635	0.655295	-3.39215	103.4533	5.145807	4.723333	112.6176
1998q4	PT	3.81668	-8.25494	4.823887	-0.08335	-3.39215	104.4833	5.426188	4.326667	97.66076
1999q1	PT	3.485403	-7.41781	4.768371	-0.39207	-2.79159	103.42	4.784815	4.053333	102.5642
1999q2	PT	3.223557	-7.19217	4.502844	-0.58689	-2.79159	102.7167	4.355189	4.37	94.3199
1999q3	PT	2.981027	-9.23471	4.228632	-0.27769	-2.79159	101.8833	3.329699	5.206666	91.38458
1999q4	PT	3.179507	-9.94595	4.211185	0.250493	-2.79159	101.4433	2.646657	5.48	99.23627
2000q1	PT	2.373918	-10.9101	4.387866	1.168448	-2.96595	99.89	3.875207	5.733333	124.2702
2000q2	PT	3.235261	-11.2791	3.748887	1.025105	-2.96595	100.1067	3.063191	5.58	115.1144
2000q3	PT	3.311739	-9.61536	3.956869	1.425861	-2.96595	100.0333	4.368157	5.603333	113.4566
2000q4	PT	2.996516	-9.22133	3.736975	2.025718	-2.96595	99.96333	4.080931	5.463333	103.0493
2001q1	PT	3.906294	-9.86256	4.169277	0.839973	-4.32094	102.2867	1.88125	5.13	100
2001q2	PT	2.990767	-10.9601	3.854117	1.6043	-4.32094	101.91	3.002002	5.356667	88.62659
2001q3	PT	3.356501	-11.0206	3.983628	0.911299	-4.32094	102.36	1.218902	5.25	74.41977
2001q4	PT	4.145242	-7.81744	4.140301	-0.70271	-4.32094	103.2833	1.892693	4.896667	75.90075
2002q1	PT	3.374851	-8.97942	4.411434	-0.01238	-2.88935	103.1267	2.184923	5.206666	75.55597
2002q2	PT	3.816719	-8.39103	4.52236	-0.37125	-2.88935	104.2033	1.850678	5.35	72.43709
2002q3	PT	4.369564	-8.09121	5.058963	-1.01223	-2.88935	105.4267	0.431381	4.866667	61.27095
2002q4	PT	3.985382	-6.93338	6.116997	-0.87645	-2.88935	106.41	-1.44289	4.603333	57.0843
2003q1	PT	3.642672	-5.51119	6.368957	-0.95911	-2.95305	107.4767	-1.15691	4.131333	57.2641
2003q2	PT	3.635056	-6.85231	6.152654	-1.27049	-2.95305	109.3167	-1.97434	3.956333	57.85037
2003q3	PT	2.591569	-5.91345	6.171749	-0.45234	-2.95305	108.96	-0.59279	4.218333	60.1124
2003q4	PT	2.539805	-6.12698	6.542331	-0.39027	-2.95305	109.77	0.502304	4.414333	64.44
2004q1	PT	2.313776	-6.40845	6.404059	-0.25028	-3.38324	110.0233	1.272632	4.145667	73.21794
2004q2	PT	2.043039	-6.73123	6.385952	0.039028	-3.38324	109.7367	2.055603	4.379667	75.27245
2004q3	PT	2.715608	-8.63533	6.877242	-0.59931	-3.38324	109.7267	1.376383	4.217333	73.6249
2004q4	PT	2.601485	-8.49785	7.106395	-0.43789	-3.38324	110.6367	1.311764	3.833	76.26731
2005q1	PT	2.757109	-9.54075	7.534146	-0.61678	-6.0509	110.3633	0.302453	3.602	80.80935
2005q2	PT	2.56198	-9.40611	7.254592	-0.43738	-6.0509	109.8133	1.099411	3.348667	79.2458
2005q3	PT	2.384828	-9.61659	7.768482	-0.25449	-6.0509	109.7867	0.841784	3.324	79.85601
2005q4	PT	2.298252	-9.36455	8.058298	0.045215	-6.0509	110.0033	1.374071	3.477	83.9595
2006q1	PT	2.549329	-11.281	7.771608	0.062238	-3.94135	110.3033	1.55128	3.607	95.6282
2006q2	PT	3.204305	-9.61093	7.299953	-0.31481	-3.94135	111.3033	0.803021	4.066	100.7479
2006q3	PT	2.71932	-10.6235	7.487802	0.502047	-3.94135	111.1767	1.551236	4.044667	101.9166
2006q4	PT	2.697541	-8.88009	8.23295	0.896926	-3.94135	111.64	1.531089	3.941	109.6219
2007q1	PT	3.345714	-8.60975	8.429456	0.474619	-2.6516	111.95	2.026242	4.157	119.863
2007q2	PT	2.761848	-8.30355	7.920525	1.302985	-2.6516	113.0467	1.87389	4.496	131.225
2007q3	PT	2.63271	-11.0049	7.92906	1.86779	-2.6516	112.56	1.756484	4.595333	134.353
2007q4	PT	2.878798	-11.377	7.85902	1.845969	-2.6516	113.1	1.919465	4.448333	131.7063
2008q1	PT	2.162506	-11.1934	7.649177	2.317494	-2.23931	113.7433	0.90268	4.312333	113.0151
2008q2	PT	1.877199	-11.7485	7.312592	2.983267	-2.23931	114.8067	0.711172	4.695	110.9432

Figure 8. Spain

Data for Figure 8 immediately follows

Data for Figure 8

TIME	COUNTRY	INFLATION	CURRACCTPERGDP	UNEMPRATE	REALINTRATE	FISCBALPERGDP	REALEFFEXRATE	GDP4QCHANGE	BONDRATE	REALEQUITYINDEX
1970q1	SP					0.594593	83.89		8.695001	138.4151
1970q2	SP					0.594593	83.27666		8.988284	121.2645
1970q3	SP					0.594593	85.27333		10.2333	118.8766
1970q4	SP					0.594593	85.79333		10.21317	115.2915
1971q1	SP	6.72132				-0.99793	85.58	2.232336	9.86526	114.8145
1971q2	SP	7.234543				-0.99793	85.71667	4.005405	9.557599	113.4832
1971q3	SP	7.869523				-0.99793	84.48666	5.318812	9.928517	117.0609
1971q4	SP	8.076802				-0.99793	85.61667	6.526433	9.666862	118.668
1972q1	SP	7.892284				0.071305	85.92	7.358033	9.344825	127.8501
1972q2	SP	7.902699				0.071305	86.5	7.761585	8.864645	139.9137
1972q3	SP	8.166267				0.071305	89.45	8.111492	9.201058	144.5942
1972q4	SP	8.660178		1.09		0.071305	90.66333	8.079601	8.988284	146.7921
1973q1	SP	8.178087		1.19		1.186524	90.40334	8.294031	9.031414	162.2006
1973q2	SP	10.11561		1.19		1.186524	90.79667	7.725757	9.129175	163.3837
1973q3	SP	12.23341		1.39		1.186524	89.33334	7.19082	9.244188	159.3014
1973q4	SP	14.03901		1.39		1.186524	93.84666	6.861198	9.534596	149.229
1974q1	SP	15.92189		1.29	-8.04389	-0.03945	95.29667	6.721345	10.33394	152.7011
1974q2	SP	15.66865		1.39	-2.46735	-0.03945	93.99333	6.209933	10.75949	152.8449
1974q3	SP	14.00723		1.89	-1.81424	-0.03945	96.79333	5.274986	11.26267	135.5344
1974q4	SP	13.95912		1.79	-8.78945	-0.03945	97.51334	3.709087	11.60483	114.0611
1975q1	SP	14.12896	-3.74633	2.29	-7.30629	-0.21764	95.30334	1.521845	11.76873	112.8189
1975q2	SP	15.31665	-3.74302	2.39	-9.30932	-0.21764	95.32333	0.183075	11.70547	104.7125
1975q3	SP	16.73015	-3.35864	2.79	-10.4625	-0.21764	99.27666	-0.08425	11.44957	93.83157
1975q4	SP	15.77275	-2.98688	3.39	-8.08975	-0.21764	99.64333	0.549993	11.3173	96.48906
1976q1	SP	14.56165	-2.76782	3.49	-3.82865	-0.67479	95.96333	2.042109	11.02114	86.02125
1976q2	SP	14.0731	-4.6991	3.79	-5.63143	-0.67479	97.42667	3.272836	10.83137	83.46685
1976q3	SP	14.92799	-4.54783	3.59	-1.69569	-0.67479	98.28333	3.802181	10.86012	72.34742
1976q4	SP	17.14524	-3.89663	3.752713	-9.68891	-0.67479	99.44334	3.866763	10.26781	61.9424
1977q1	SP	19.50766	-2.12045	3.820534	-5.85399	-1.09443	102.2933	3.666938	10.16429	53.46412
1977q2	SP	21.23004	-3.62969	3.892086	-7.74137	-1.09443	104.5267	2.971914	10.18155	47.76891
1977q3	SP	21.87604	-0.52043	4.356364	-5.23104	-1.09443	91.35	2.338425	10.14992	37.08962
1977q4	SP	21.33623	-0.80443	4.53345	-3.03391	-1.09443	92.38667	2.239291	10.82275	31.59158
1978q1	SP	20.33577	-0.15251	5.030486	-9.77944	-2.58454	93.12	2.072492	11.8405	28.81568
1978q2	SP	19.19601	0.865618	5.395398	-5.50101	-2.58454	95.07333	1.822284	12.06461	30.03122
1978q3	SP	18.27795	1.32615	5.776006	5.710711	-2.58454	100.4033	1.36776	11.31355	28.79504
1978q4	SP	17.62839	0.910437	6.094211	4.493607	-2.58454	104.94	0.553823	12.54298	24.96721
1979q1	SP	16.9019	1.280032	6.359317	-3.07023	-2.47665	108.56	-0.22801	12.68056	23.34904
1979q2	SP	16.09076	1.628346	6.686127	0.445568	-2.47665	115.92	-0.27508	13.09072	22.19146
1979q3	SP	15.20622	-0.54386	7.145754	1.559439	-2.47665	115.06	0.087918	13.05773	20.11537
1979q4	SP	14.47211	-0.76532	7.651798	0.474559	-2.47665	114.99	0.586926	14.40777	17.35593
1980q1	SP	14.40345	-2.21661	8.364805	1.245221	-2.9824	114.7167	1.413846	15.54	18.15696
1980q2	SP	12.76026	-2.24346	9.139776	5.462069	-2.9824	109.52	1.597845	15.64667	16.15729
1980q3	SP	12.11517	-3.65975	9.457085	3.488166	-2.9824	107.2167	0.960325	16.10667	17.03564
1980q4	SP	11.30249	-1.67747	10.06459	5.313838	-2.9824	106.4133	1.187763	16.55	16.70185
1981q1	SP	10.07157	-2.93577	10.61221	6.064429	-4.28623	105.0967	-0.04744	16.21667	17.98726
1981q2	SP	11.87073	-3.58727	11.26062	4.352265	-4.28623	105.44	-0.49755	15.78667	19.31956
1981q3	SP	11.87329	-1.17719	11.68277	4.563039	-4.28623	105.27	0.343465	15.27	21.11676
1981q4	SP	12.65069	-2.8804	12.20941	3.264647	-4.28623	103.9767	-0.33477	15.97333	18.52467
1982q1	SP	13.28901	-2.46826	12.38623	1.908327	-6.00252	105.2367	0.643784	15.8	18.17963
1982q2	SP	12.57253	-2.46826	12.66937	3.853798	-6.00252	105.1933	1.133632	16	16.68309
1982q3	SP	12.66325	-2.46826	13.23912	3.486414	-6.00252	106.38	1.360883	16.06333	14.29362
1982q4	SP	12.42177	-2.46826	13.5809	4.930888	-6.00252	102.3767	1.812648	16.08667	13.32364
1983q1	SP	12.0717	-3.12371	13.88223	4.722967	-5.1757	94.68	1.76669	15.67667	13.43496
1983q2	SP	11.5713	-1.9866	13.96861	8.607021	-5.1757	92.48	2.003332	16.70667	14.1557
1983q3	SP	11.01819	-1.22333	14.31607	11.69847	-5.1757	90.45	1.479333	17.44	14.11143
1983q4	SP	10.35682	-0.56345	14.75323	10.15183	-5.1757	91.04333	1.771502	17.81333	14.48301
1984q1	SP	10.55403	0.527223	15.86316	7.449295	-5.82194	94.00667	2.230505	17.11333	16.02202
1984q2	SP	10.71866	1.960875	16.33587	4.626	-5.82194	95.78667	1.306031	17.41	16.18842
1984q3	SP	10.16077	1.008082	16.70588	3.342228	-5.82194	96.07	2.026217	16.75	18.70813
1984q4	SP	9.87036	0.806977	17.44358	2.869973	-5.82194	97.01667	1.509731	14.81667	18.43061
1985q1	SP	8.649036	0.563905	17.52611	3.558297	-7.32068	98.95	1.795735	13.29333	20.31863
1985q2	SP	7.891058	0.709613	17.92043	5.321276	-7.32068	98.21	2.01053	13.58667	19.43748
1985q3	SP	8.307901	1.809526	17.83417	4.720765	-7.32068	96.88	2.174718	14.25	19.22738
1985q4	SP	8.09814	2.899556	17.81178	2.351193	-7.32068	95.34666	3.189086	12.34	21.86944
1986q1	SP	10.36639	2.056819	17.7238	0.62994	-6.35562	98.95333	2.360931	12.31333	27.25334
1986q2	SP	10.59258	1.642868	17.46835	1.395087	-6.35562	99.35	4.80853	11.46	38.02737
1986q3	SP	10.20307	1.594197	17.17496	1.871594	-6.35562	101.9833	3.069669	11.37667	39.65477
1986q4	SP	10.17437	1.089221	17.08035	1.397961	-6.35562	101.35	2.56452	10.26667	40.13807
1987q1	SP	6.341172	0.796777	17.24596	6.840828	-3.36686	99.78667	4.310366	10.76	49.48034
1987q2	SP	5.741568	0.585029	16.76014	12.65243	-3.36686	99.45333	3.441709	12.89	46.42953
1987q3	SP	5.622077	-0.06917	16.42981	11.46458	-3.36686	103.0867	6.193407	13.91667	58.15529
1987q4	SP	5.323569	-1.31598	15.37908	9.302097	-3.36686	106.3	7.581728	13.68667	48.01978
1988q1	SP	5.868042	-0.46486	14.94427	6.064291	-3.41715	105.9967	5.875256	12.20333	49.62606
1988q2	SP	6.011734	-0.42947	14.89562	4.805599	-3.41715	106.3767	5.606042	11.07667	54.21349
1988q3	SP	5.59405	-1.1356	14.64601	5.308617	-3.41715	106.7067	5.348727	11.20667	54.79977
1988q4	SP	5.677021	-1.95856	13.66453	7.27198	-3.41715	108.81	3.0991	12.49	52.89985
1989q1	SP	6.579399	-1.94485	12.98244	8.028934	-2.90257	113.7067	5.108835	13.32667	50.90902
1989q2	SP	6.576996	-2.88911	12.46643	8.23667	-2.90257	112.05	4.872354	13.63667	54.94733
1989q3	SP	6.847131	-3.44861	12.28704	8.453201	-2.90257	114.8833	4.416285	13.339	55.82524
1989q4	SP	6.690709	-2.53612	12.61586	8.732292	-2.90257	115.8767	4.474673	14.1	53.52595
1990q1	SP	7.065005	-3.69661	12.23971	8.446995	-4.13589	117.7367	3.016128	14.65667	47.78141
1990q2	SP	7.01258	-3.35386	12.22571	7.998754	-4.13589	120.98	3.722196	14.63667	46.81591
1990q3	SP	7.001514	-2.96264	12.00011	8.060152	-4.13589	123.7267	2.092502	14.75333	43.87575
1990q4	SP	7.118992	-3.79577	11.96061	7.902341	-4.13589	122.7967	5.970577	14.66333	37.54991
1991q1	SP	6.585022	-3.13679	11.75298	7.960978	-4.82627	124.3133	3.157906	13.93333	40.21426
1991q2	SP	6.602018	-3.71081	11.96132	6.362316	-4.82627	121.3833	2.684458	12.10333	44.61886
1991q3	SP	6.630098	-3.88528	12.53625	6.013902	-4.82627	121.4467	3.735804	11.94	41.99783
1991q4	SP	7.060448	-3.51435	12.65641	5.692219	-4.82627	122.08	0.520151	11.46533	38.19885
1992q1	SP	7.474483	-3.68132	13.20669	5.259183	-3.95593	124.32	3.453368	10.83833	38.21727
1992q2	SP	6.910226	-4.45539	12.99938	5.647107	-3.95593	123.87	0.928935	11.01967	37.19419
1992q3	SP	6.708205	-3.57644	13.48204	6.808795	-3.95593	123.8233	0.240352	12.232	31.09717
1992q4	SP	5.042064	-2.24203	14.48526	9.517937	-3.95593	115.52	-0.90966	12.69067	29.49232
1993q1	SP	4.307795	-1.35893	15.94888	9.985206	-7.2979	116.24	-2.83978	11.64533	33.16064
1993q2	SP	4.337206	-1.16401	16.89645	8.301794	-7.2979	109.87	-1.53402	11.09033	35.3317
1993q3	SP	4.190039	-0.65805	17.58206	6.410961	-7.2979	103.2433	-0.40186	9.597667	38.64143
1993q4	SP	4.835924	-1.1482	18.29986	4.38341	-7.2979	103.6333	0.628007	8.51	41.80398
1994q1	SP	4.03328	-0.36944	18.65663	4.477386	-6.75983	101.88	2.389059	8.297667	46.46485
1994q2	SP	3.982986	-0.79406	19.24221	3.770348	-6.75983	102.5067	2.614849	9.63	43.36051
1994q3	SP	3.697408	-1.6046	19.2818	4.103258	-6.75983	103.93	2.209696	10.82933	40.88172
1994q4	SP	3.53975	-2.14168	19.24348	4.429583	-6.75983	103.94	2.207089	11.23333	39.41484
1995q1	SP	4.846295	-1.51806	18.96805	4.186371	-6.48204	102.2867	2.852825	11.90633	36.38541
1995q2	SP	4.874181	-0.18809	18.66932	4.580152	-6.48204	104.5633	2.967941	11.68033	37.40171
1995q3	SP	4.746334	-0.36362	18.71865	4.797333	-6.48204	106.18	2.458941	11.036	39.63001
1995q4	SP	4.799898	0.793012	18.50387	4.590102	-6.48204	107.3	2.60665	10.46133	38.58644
1996q1	SP	4.143467	-0.82135	18.11636	4.536533	-4.85549	108.52	1.704088	9.687333	41.58786
1996q2	SP	3.533273	-0.53126	17.80741	3.916727	-4.85549	107.4433	2.197164	9.201	44.87838
1996q3	SP	3.177392	0.043332	17.33133	4.035941	-4.85549	107.1533	2.761375	8.691334	44.37355
1996q4	SP	2.76142	0.369985	16.92896	3.875247	-4.85549	106.23	2.878454	7.367333	48.56076
1997q1	SP	2.103156	-0.62826	16.80306	3.780178	-3.3791	103.7	3.356837	6.866667	57.62827
1997q2	SP	2.320195	0.117943	16.60231	3.029805	-3.3791	102.41	3.443615	6.676667	65.40621
1997q3	SP	2.567625	0.458342	16.14356	2.692375	-3.3791	101.01	3.734581	6.2	72.64811
1997q4	SP	2.410731	-0.3141	15.71635	2.589269	-3.3791	102.7233	4.627778	5.86	71.71077
1998q1	SP	0.311299	-1.34325	15.17565	4.268701	-3.21858	102.4667	4.487184	5.243333	90.9099
1998q2	SP	2.936393	-0.6157	14.92703	1.423607	-3.21858	102.5533	4.521738	5.07	103.8339
1998q3	SP	2.952125	-0.54736	14.4931	1.358542	-3.21858	104.0433	4.566193	4.716667	97.30972
1998q4	SP	3.492715	-2.17674	14.00192	0.224618	-3.21858	104.6067	3.919291	4.306667	90.97006
1999q1	SP	4.558655	-1.67422	12.97391	-1.46532	-1.43411	103.7467	3.980801	4.053333	102.4909
1999q2	SP	2.154777	-2.76742	12.20831	0.48189	-1.43411	102.27	4.55387	4.32	103.5993
1999q3	SP	1.976825	-3.45118	11.93647	0.726508	-1.43411	102.3267	4.871843	5.13	100.8401
1999q4	SP	1.770293	-3.73354	11.76724	1.659707	-1.43411	101.49	5.11801	5.406667	105.5506
2000q1	SP	3.200475	-3.7891	11.31173	0.341892	-0.99689	100.6433	5.659039	5.68	119.6388
2000q2	SP	2.984984	-3.96938	10.86492	1.275383	-0.99689	99.71667	5.236388	5.513333	113.6584
2000q3	SP	3.520253	-4.67949	10.61062	1.217346	-0.99689	99.97667	4.44647	5.53	112.4238
2000q4	SP	3.867451	-3.40277	10.37522	1.154782	-0.99689	99.65	4.390049	5.38	103.3124
2001q1	SP	3.964015	-4.11028	10.2629	0.782252	-0.65993	102.1867	3.934652	5.08	100
2001q2	SP	4.40517	-4.43137	10.11546	0.189896	-0.65993	101.2833	3.477501	5.29	97.30038
2001q3	SP	4.172334	-3.53696	9.994573	0.095466	-0.65993	102.3367	3.682174	5.216667	83.84367
2001q4	SP	3.919571	-3.70262	10.20281	-0.47704	-0.65993	102.47	3.246403	4.88	84.37645
2002q1	SP	4.24467	-3.14995	10.81187	-0.8822	-0.47668	102.1367	2.634561	5.166667	84.09957
2002q2	SP	4.072567	-3.46448	10.92555	-0.6271	-0.47668	104.29	2.835216	5.31	82.41487
2002q3	SP	4.202693	-2.73422	11.21221	-0.84536	-0.47668	104.7267	2.534402	4.81	67.14817
2002q4	SP	4.351542	-3.67885	11.18546	-1.24261	-0.47668	106.46	2.66896	4.55	65.03327
2003q1	SP	4.095815	-3.46168	11.15491	-1.41225	-0.22901	107.5433	3.140662	4.096667	63.31144
2003q2	SP	4.119957	-3.58421	10.97817	-1.75539	-0.22901	110.05	2.958684	3.923333	67.63354
2003q3	SP	4.059646	-3.398	11.06067	-1.92041	-0.22901	109.29	2.976626	4.143333	72.46244
2003q4	SP	3.964947	-3.59194	10.96133	-1.81541	-0.22901	110.9467	3.122224	4.336667	74.12724
2004q1	SP	4.015567	-4.32837	10.69078	-1.95207	-0.35492	110.8267	2.903779	4.116667	81.0282
2004q2	SP	3.93532	-5.66292	10.77227	-1.85325	-0.35492	111.6	3.045549	4.306667	80.82466
2004q3	SP	3.844525	-5.48775	10.54812	-1.72823	-0.35492	111.5833	3.56529	4.17	79.02674
2004q4	SP	3.978467	-5.4945	10.18164	-1.81487	-0.35492	113.66	3.33664	3.82	84.75114
2005q1	SP	4.067611	-7.06242	9.841345	-1.92728	0.963037	112.87	3.504336	3.633333	91.3528
2005q2	SP	4.199543	-7.68747	9.417545	-2.07494	0.963037	113.6933	3.63604	3.36	92.19275
2005q3	SP	4.251193	-6.962	8.650052	-2.12086	0.963037	112.8867	3.359145	3.18	99.28622
2005q4	SP	4.26133	-7.70348	8.734577	-1.91786	0.963037	114.0467	3.701484	3.373333	101.8117
2006q1	SP	4.198233	-8.29833	8.740397	-1.58667	2.020151	113.87	3.70889	3.487	108.8731
2006q2	SP	4.001	-8.59655	8.592592	-1.1115	2.020151	115.97	3.842386	3.966667	109.7507
2006q3	SP	3.983497	-9.17276	8.391098	-0.76213	2.020151	115.5433	3.903313	3.89	112.7957
2006q4	SP	3.683348	-9.60853	8.325054	-0.08888	2.020151	116.3867	3.804513	3.793333	130.5508
2007q1	SP	3.405299	-9.25669	8.144943	0.415035	2.215126	116.19	3.882027	4.063334	136.8911
2007q2	SP	3.257334	-9.89014	7.995744	0.807499	2.215126	118.2267	3.816445	4.388	139.6234
2007q3	SP	2.912773	-10.243	8.286013	1.587728	2.215126	117.7567	3.502063	4.449	134.8466
2007q4	SP	2.944534	-10.8891	8.625752	1.780232	2.215126	120.4567	3.19825	4.325333	140.4827
2008q1	SP	3.229003	-10.7069	9.266228	1.250997	-1.51534	120.8733	2.596051	4.146333	119.5456
2008q2	SP	3.452052	-10.1833	10.50075	1.408415	-1.51534	123.4033	1.744218	4.508333	118.386

Figure 9. Sweden

Data for Figure 9 immediately follows

Data for Figure 9

TIME	COUNTRY	INFLATION	CURRACCTPERGDP	UNEMPRATE	REALINTRATE	FISCBALPERGDP	REALEFFEXRATE	GDP4QCHANGE	BONDRATE	REALEQUITYINDEX
1970q1	SD			1.913814		4.742714	147.1		7.536667	10.28978
1970q2	SD			1.825256		4.742714	146.52		7.596667	9.237023
1970q3	SD			1.955774		4.742714	147.32		7.756667	9.283726
1970q4	SD			2.324948		4.742714	147.5333		7.69	8.314793
1971q1	SD	5.729325		2.92894	1.520675	4.583361	150.94	3.012321	7.546667	8.907083
1971q2	SD	6.618769		3.344299	-0.36877	4.583361	147.5133	1.062361	7.543334	9.431389
1971q3	SD	7.340781		3.574776	-1.50745	4.583361	147.16	-0.00545	7.483333	9.41088
1971q4	SD	8.972777		3.668922	-4.88945	4.583361	148.6067	-1.45226	7.376667	9.121461
1972q1	SD	8.090526		3.627545	-4.34053	4.129437	149.4033	0.11515	7.486667	9.708439
1972q2	SD	7.292853		3.59049	-3.29285	4.129437	149.4667	1.487912	7.52	10.22939
1972q3	SD	6.76267		3.557765	-2.67934	4.129437	150.9467	2.486011	7.573333	10.26141
1972q4	SD	4.559807		3.508026	-1.39314	4.129437	150.6267	5.161583	7.6	10.16736
1973q1	SD	4.84435		3.441189	-1.92768	5.07912	149.0933	5.351958	7.61	9.960826
1973q2	SD	5.388136		3.345558	-2.63814	5.07912	146.7067	5.198502	7.643333	10.38515
1973q3	SD	7.729062		3.221555	-4.97906	5.07912	146.9133	3.167867	7.66	10.17662
1973q4	SD	8.203492		3.06232	-5.45349	5.07912	143.55	2.83386	7.64	9.366576
1974q1	SD	9.383		2.868714	-7.21633	3.477651	140.3267	1.637601	7.493333	10.36424
1974q2	SD	8.182069		2.697043	-0.18207	3.477651	140.5633	3.289538	8.06	10.20722
1974q3	SD	8.435888		2.547199	0.064112	3.477651	138.7233	3.909847	8.2	9.353343
1974q4	SD	9.851845		2.405276	-1.10185	3.477651	142.7633	3.905456	8.4	8.487795
1975q1	SD	10.56505	0.378854	2.271524	-1.81506	5.012675	144.4733	5.075653	8.43	8.742291
1975q2	SD	14.28088	-0.12664	2.173183	-5.86421	5.012675	144.4833	2.226178	9.006667	8.848837
1975q3	SD	14.72342	-0.71463	2.109265	-7.80675	5.012675	142.0933	1.734832	9.333333	9.149167
1975q4	SD	14.03205	0.008097	2.077736	-8.94872	5.012675	141.8633	1.651642	9.393333	9.48416
1976q1	SD	14.93174	-1.2401	2.123763	-10.4317	6.466372	144.43	-0.66526	9.393333	9.035638
1976q2	SD	10.72874	-2.01783	2.126655	-5.56207	6.466372	146.1567	2.247395	9.406667	9.935778
1976q3	SD	10.99217	0.118832	2.00759	-4.15884	6.466372	146.1133	0.797093	9.466666	9.161104
1976q4	SD	11.34961	-3.28887	2.193107	-1.84961	6.466372	151.67	-0.9356	10.02	7.996218
1977q1	SD	10.16436	-3.02001	2.280353	-0.66436	1.60565	150.3967	-1.30925	9.893333	8.162356
1977q2	SD	10.12833	-2.35717	2.221525	-0.62833	1.60565	146.15	-2.0551	9.993333	7.631924
1977q3	SD	9.385432	-2.14207	2.491227	0.114568	1.60565	141.73	-1.36931	10.01667	7.023503
1977q4	SD	10.16974	-0.5309	2.69045	-1.00307	1.60565	132.18	-1.49883	10.08	6.37324
1978q1	SD	7.82512	0.033215	2.888065	0.341549	-0.64079	132.8933	2.164588	10.19	6.709327
1978q2	SD	8.132732	0.269341	3.096177	-1.46606	-0.64079	132.2867	2.704872	10.48333	7.035809
1978q3	SD	10.7642	0.563825	3.150223	-4.84753	-0.64079	130.39	0.478019	10.38333	7.095091
1978q4	SD	8.614208	0.480411	2.823483	-2.86421	-0.64079	129.1833	2.687351	10.32667	6.626847
1979q1	SD	7.921373	-0.15656	2.914946	-2.17137	-2.77906	128.4433	3.120764	10.38333	6.973156
1979q2	SD	7.91798	-2.03969	2.92148	-2.16798	-2.77906	128.7033	3.167705	10.45	6.500199
1979q3	SD	5.879778	-2.11146	2.75875	0.620222	-2.77906	128.91	5.52719	10.7	6.31828
1979q4	SD	8.042666	-2.23045	2.523469	1.124003	-2.77906	129.6767	4.01823	11.34333	6.114741
1980q1	SD	10.37956	-2.5947	2.538144	0.12044	-5.66348	131.6533	5.164688	11.39333	6.285669
1980q2	SD	10.63566	-4.97899	2.666371	0.464338	-5.66348	130.0767	-1.45672	11.59333	6.18814
1980q3	SD	12.25938	-2.65494	2.552263	0.057323	-5.66348	131.0467	2.018004	12.07667	5.918077
1980q4	SD	11.92371	-1.82055	2.916736	0.459595	-5.66348	134.4033	-0.01163	12.92	6.065949
1981q1	SD	10.253	-1.45132	2.930837	5.5137	-4.65185	136.3267	-2.47786	13.48333	7.24901
1981q2	SD	10.33012	-1.7298	2.988195	4.236575	-4.65185	136.5933	2.249004	13.81333	8.061165
1981q3	SD	8.940123	-2.25747	3.357196	1.893177	-4.65185	133.2933	-0.6543	13.97667	9.019925
1981q4	SD	6.799459	-2.77133	3.982198	2.200541	-4.65185	121.9533	0.187762	13.68667	9.54477
1982q1	SD	8.114404	-1.68044	4.03722	4.22893	-6.5287	123.4767	-0.09545	13.04667	9.590127
1982q2	SD	8.683262	-1.93459	4.085399	4.343405	-6.5287	123.2833	1.947217	13.12333	8.812015
1982q3	SD	6.674592	-3.11475	4.443617	7.682075	-6.5287	123.87	-0.00814	13.48	9.281287
1982q4	SD	7.688962	-4.85929	4.291775	5.584371	-6.5287	107.3467	3.075524	13.53	11.04798
1983q1	SD	8.30375	-0.57154	4.466777	2.822917	-5.08442	106.3033	1.295933	13.06667	14.97738
1983q2	SD	9.247951	0.130122	4.678224	1.732049	-5.08442	107.7833	0.626444	12.43	16.84471
1983q3	SD	10.06844	-0.84621	4.715273	1.381562	-5.08442	109.6	2.701439	12.21667	18.05618
1983q4	SD	10.85438	-0.72992	4.620395	1.23229	-5.08442	110.31	2.79219	12.50667	18.33642
1984q1	SD	7.797574	2.353476	4.365603	3.202426	-3.00534	111.8433	6.563924	12.22667	19.79125
1984q2	SD	7.47825	-0.0481	4.318991	3.665084	-3.00534	112.5967	3.362699	11.93333	18.51669
1984q3	SD	7.280508	0.391296	3.970455	6.222826	-3.00534	114.08	4.008957	12.86333	17.26123
1984q4	SD	6.804742	1.063119	3.942394	5.271924	-3.00534	115.3333	2.976333	13.11333	15.50976
1985q1	SD	8.353666	-3.172	3.80265	4.709667	-3.62961	115.91	0.888176	13.12	15.70192
1985q2	SD	6.483086	-1.54477	3.837488	8.650248	-3.62961	115.4867	3.371641	13.44	14.87513
1985q3	SD	5.772559	0.530095	3.547738	9.357441	-3.62961	115.7367	3.217221	13.37	14.50749
1985q4	SD	4.870038	1.030499	3.442199	8.499962	-3.62961	116.61	1.304429	13.02	16.09544
1986q1	SD	5.754197	0.336153	3.582001	5.555803	-0.34148	116.51	2.358477	11.91667	19.12069
1986q2	SD	5.856044	-0.00117	3.370031	4.220623	-0.34148	115.8367	3.360105	10.15333	23.38175
1986q3	SD	7.499468	1.088831	3.274258	1.677198	-0.34148	114.7233	1.967834	9.883333	25.055
1986q4	SD	6.16655	-0.19958	3.308103	2.59345	-0.34148	114.6767	3.312339	10.17556	26.11977
1987q1	SD	4.592998	0.297007	2.945307	5.700336	3.266455	115.1733	2.541226	11.46	24.62338
1987q2	SD	5.513837	0.118067	2.832274	3.656163	3.266455	115.2	2.627285	11.57333	27.5587
1987q3	SD	3.271725	0.354866	2.728971	5.658276	3.266455	115.84	4.118743	11.92	30.66137
1987q4	SD	5.482761	0.274957	2.381345	3.687239	3.266455	115.6067	4.06181	11.76667	25.31496
1988q1	SD	5.718296	-0.44087	2.390826	3.535038	3.281369	116.6733	3.722907	11.42667	25.19275
1988q2	SD	4.72564	0.060267	2.255	5.387693	3.281369	118.6233	2.486047	11.40333	27.43791
1988q3	SD	7.430965	0.294432	2.293222	3.009035	3.281369	118.6967	1.193579	11.46333	28.09344
1988q4	SD	6.717204	0.057537	2.026776	3.809463	3.281369	119.6467	2.885849	11.11333	30.45953
1989q1	SD	7.668241	-0.35339	2.023706	3.121759	3.212896	120.55	2.226548	10.64	33.20483
1989q2	SD	7.922734	-1.43712	1.92729	3.623933	3.212896	121.48	3.48309	11.07	35.45169
1989q3	SD	6.674469	-0.84248	1.879695	5.015531	3.212896	121.9433	3.012633	11.06333	38.98424
1989q4	SD	8.513554	-2.02058	1.97749	3.456447	3.212896	121.7533	2.120337	11.94667	35.38836
1990q1	SD	7.541918	-1.88269	1.881033	6.518082	3.333771	124.4867	2.983147	13.44	34.45448
1990q2	SD	10.38797	-1.53419	1.823903	2.702033	3.333771	126.7767	0.477804	13.27	33.39172
1990q3	SD	9.082748	-3.14866	2.227469	3.797252	3.333771	127.0667	0.419059	13.14333	32.8977
1990q4	SD	6.79845	-2.13274	2.66034	7.84155	3.333771	126.6333	0.223757	12.78333	24.40325
1991q1	SD	10.29511	-1.57582	3.064406	2.211556	-0.0754	131.47	-1.11616	11.44333	25.52779
1991q2	SD	7.792447	-0.87734	3.390179	3.747553	-0.0754	132.17	-0.28574	10.90333	27.78486
1991q3	SD	9.346495	-2.78756	4.066415	1.166839	-0.0754	130.0333	-0.80879	10.47	27.35682
1991q4	SD	7.057315	-0.53576	4.718538	4.756018	-0.0754	132.2233	-2.13054	9.946667	24.35423
1992q1	SD	2.517474	-3.28442	5.557028	9.622526	-8.80148	132.3433	-0.13653	9.45	24.45386
1992q2	SD	-0.92459	-3.08532	6.455637	12.62459	-8.80148	132.3133	-0.9651	9.52	25.05965
1992q3	SD	0.013008	-2.81137	7.115976	15.10699	-8.80148	134.5467	-1.23892	10.54667	19.97223
1992q4	SD	2.363904	-1.89327	7.807436	10.10943	-8.80148	125.19	-2.447	10.55	19.34345
1993q1	SD	2.161523	-3.30191	9.208223	7.435143	-11.1672	111.15	-4.56206	9.77	23.78766
1993q2	SD	4.098201	-0.84471	11.10777	4.748466	-11.1672	110.1167	-3.13228	9.06	26.05787
1993q3	SD	2.133343	0.089596	11.42068	5.643324	-11.1672	104.5767	-1.29571	7.886667	30.03435
1993q4	SD	1.454018	-0.99133	11.88842	5.732648	-11.1672	103.2567	0.952613	7.44	33.32709
1994q1	SD	2.366604	0.845931	11.73624	4.630062	-9.0636	106.4067	2.61137	7.143333	36.66628
1994q2	SD	3.001135	1.228006	11.44861	4.025531	-9.0636	106.51	3.742064	8.956667	35.15234
1994q3	SD	2.263575	1.046162	11.07106	5.306425	-9.0636	103.76	4.255688	11.03	34.20966
1994q4	SD	3.286606	1.362356	11.02281	4.723394	-9.0636	107.1	4.441177	10.85	34.43597
1995q1	SD	3.807272	2.741298	10.71858	4.389394	-7.31756	105.0967	5.095288	10.96333	35.0271
1995q2	SD	3.225202	4.175943	10.45335	5.678131	-7.31756	101.9567	4.449623	10.91333	36.32375
1995q3	SD	3.767894	3.382472	10.41679	5.342106	-7.31756	105.1667	3.512113	10.13667	40.14713
1995q4	SD	2.775967	2.919198	10.94401	5.997367	-7.31756	113.54	3.389461	8.963333	39.60702
1996q1	SD	2.10544	4.130952	11.00187	5.537893	-3.3176	113.22	2.476621	8.58	41.28871
1996q2	SD	0.485158	3.872574	11.5362	5.591508	-3.3176	115.58	1.142292	8.37	44.98411
1996q3	SD	1.268147	3.279186	11.70362	3.865186	-3.3176	115.0633	1.41669	8.056666	44.90916
1996q4	SD	-0.45892	2.891138	12.05083	4.76559	-3.3176	114.56	0.83136	7.1	51.40552
1997q1	SD	-0.73855	3.913691	12.33788	4.678553	-1.62963	108.8833	0.989108	6.84	60.19947
1997q2	SD	2.618612	4.234206	12.36164	1.438055	-1.62963	106.7833	2.745517	7	63.12375
1997q3	SD	0.972738	4.381	11.66117	3.140595	-1.62963	108.3667	2.88061	6.433333	71.21125
1997q4	SD	2.394601	3.848827	10.98469	1.925399	-1.62963	110.15	3.937572	6.183333	67.78799
1998q1	SD	1.71489	3.807905	10.31757	2.691776	1.223901	107.1733	3.716269	5.51	72.76157
1998q2	SD	-0.06089	3.565864	10.17923	4.44756	1.223901	109.24	3.756106	5.126667	82.73726
1998q3	SD	0.378918	4.276541	9.761309	3.784416	1.223901	105.25	3.868194	4.813334	77.17859
1998q4	SD	0.655139	3.705158	9.16898	3.138194	1.223901	100.6867	3.289695	4.506667	68.51093
1999q1	SD	0.849482	3.899915	8.78005	2.330518	1.203642	102.91	4.447901	4.213333	75.77282
1999q2	SD	1.164577	4.604953	8.354884	1.755423	1.203642	101.4067	3.528174	4.536667	82.68224
1999q3	SD	1.160967	3.944326	8.354471	1.859033	1.203642	102.6333	4.050834	5.48	86.30533
1999q4	SD	1.514946	4.158662	7.805996	1.825054	1.203642	102.16	4.897526	5.69	100.3921
2000q1	SD	1.591879	4.448678	7.380061	2.251454	3.746333	101.37	4.326358	5.786667	134.3646
2000q2	SD	1.105265	3.386302	7.06584	2.858068	3.746333	102.5233	5.561572	5.296667	133.3123
2000q3	SD	1.450819	3.073526	6.717217	2.539181	3.746333	99.61667	4.679665	5.293334	128.606
2000q4	SD	1.238649	4.412586	6.261216	2.781351	3.746333	96.48666	3.13782	5.093333	111.5036
2001q1	SD	1.212226	3.711012	6.084898	2.864441	1.679022	94.85333	2.39864	4.833333	100
2001q2	SD	2.597948	2.84766	5.776638	1.442052	1.679022	92.71	0.582671	5.193333	89.86894
2001q3	SD	1.71899	4.530282	5.813172	2.48101	1.679022	90.44	0.565991	5.28	79.87982
2001q4	SD	2.886365	3.999267	6.029775	0.818608	1.679022	90.31	1.349249	5.123333	79.56525
2002q1	SD	2.06111	5.291017	6.074686	1.83889	-1.41794	93.05334	1.517502	5.42	81.79782
2002q2	SD	1.813392	5.550405	5.995963	2.459941	-1.41794	94.01334	2.958657	5.633333	72.38533
2002q3	SD	1.888703	3.855074	6.097466	2.317963	-1.41794	94.29	2.671942	5.156667	56.04182
2002q4	SD	0.652914	1.405402	6.269209	3.230419	-1.41794	96.48333	2.388328	5.003334	54.23872
2003q1	SD	2.346703	6.400666	6.443553	1.20663	-1.15603	98.03667	2.698312	4.58	50.8568
2003q2	SD	1.240299	6.720716	6.474102	1.896367	-1.15603	100.16	1.230339	4.43	53.64995
2003q3	SD	2.265554	7.142205	6.882757	0.434446	-1.15603	99.27333	1.996522	4.646667	60.27702
2003q4	SD	1.332911	8.13279	7.37733	1.383756	-1.15603	101.8533	2.202381	4.896667	65.16068
2004q1	SD	0.644349	5.497083	7.596635	1.828984	0.56896	100.5467	2.648971	4.503334	72.08331
2004q2	SD	1.040476	7.650853	7.63532	0.956191	0.56896	99.19334	3.95418	4.65	72.66209
2004q3	SD	0.757846	6.873576	7.896145	1.235487	0.56896	99.23	3.602924	4.453333	71.19402
2004q4	SD	0.826413	6.797918	7.654036	1.166921	0.56896	101.72	3.608175	4.093333	76.76379
2005q1	SD	-0.64827	5.826874	7.60466	2.628265	2.141365	100.5667	3.067387	3.82	82.31412
2005q2	SD	1.437737	6.637591	7.934511	0.40893	2.141365	97.34333	2.789452	3.343333	83.15071
2005q3	SD	0.990595	7.651624	7.701784	0.486072	2.141365	94.69	3.389487	3.06	90.901
2005q4	SD	1.718963	7.014976	7.697693	-0.15563	2.141365	93.36667	3.641299	3.306667	96.3959
2006q1	SD	3.237376	8.698932	7.523055	-1.33071	2.185951	94.36	4.395841	3.43	106.5282
2006q2	SD	0.545093	7.973537	7.339597	1.578241	2.185951	95.62666	4.628656	3.886667	108.9003
2006q3	SD	0.858045	8.186471	6.845394	1.558622	2.185951	96.73333	4.281459	3.833333	105.5909
2006q4	SD	1.441394	8.933394	6.52622	1.438606	2.185951	98.56	4.021842	3.666667	118.8858
2007q1	SD	2.609997	8.893968	6.488566	0.643337	3.533391	98.27	3.343388	3.873333	127.8826
2007q2	SD	2.825442	7.559841	6.199463	0.571225	3.533391	98.13333	3.131595	4.21	136.91
2007q3	SD	2.726023	7.469873	5.942417	0.850644	3.533391	98.33667	2.613972	4.306667	131.3814
2007q4	SD	3.297059	9.791081	5.972113	0.686275	3.533391	99.81	2.372164	4.28	119.4929
2008q1	SD	2.05184	8.350234	5.956927	2.134826	2.763176	99.28667	1.824991	4.006667	101.0078
2008q2	SD	3.629789	5.748272	6.128585	0.510211	2.763176	101.47	0.936019	4.223333	100.5574

Figure 10. United Kingdom

Data for Figure 10 immediately follows

Data for Figure 10

TIME	COUNTRY	INFLATION	CURRACCTPERGDP	UNEMPRATE	REALINTRATE	FISCBALPERGDP	REALEFFEXRATE	GDP4QCHANGE	BONDRATE	REALEQUITYINDEX
1970q1	UK		2.648521	3.479421		3.013213	98.26667		8.703333	52.7387
1970q2	UK		1.302778	3.505736		3.013213	99.10333		8.733334	45.56394
1970q3	UK		0.746667	3.529769		3.013213	98.45		8.42	44.58644
1970q4	UK		1.696415	3.601047		3.013213	99.14		8.68	45.44403
1971q1	UK	8.702157	1.602331	3.829172	-0.99285	1.706471	101.1267	2.532292	8.576667	43.41033
1971q2	UK	9.236873	1.95692	4.078125	-2.6308	1.706471	103.0867	1.639212	8.146667	50.23899
1971q3	UK	8.923058	2.471574	4.209249	-3.11025	1.706471	102.63	2.321336	7.623333	55.00599
1971q4	UK	8.617158	1.741211	4.438264	-3.74093	1.706471	102.6833	1.803029	7.126667	53.73639
1972q1	UK	7.442214	0.905869	4.501871	-0.19287	-1.91662	102.99	2.952442	7.156667	60.44539
1972q2	UK	7.369811	0.972824	4.438907	-0.74707	-1.91662	103.0233	4.102988	8.08	61.92699
1972q3	UK	7.262673	-0.89236	4.282655	0.676611	-1.91662	96.96	2.844191	9.08	60.85407
1972q4	UK	8.960944	-0.03487	4.150167	-0.52504	-1.91662	94.91333	4.441193	9.183333	57.60133
1973q1	UK	8.802149	-1.22418	3.864268	1.410264	-4.15908	92.6	9.524049	9.426666	52.83632
1973q2	UK	5.381215	-0.56872	3.729676	3.557979	-4.15908	92.35667	7.43149	9.76	51.87886
1973q3	UK	7.90417	-1.84049	3.579289	5.387966	-4.15908	84.92333	6.385401	11.04333	46.45024
1973q4	UK	7.461715	-2.20721	3.430293	7.433609	-4.15908	84.68667	4.499187	12.00333	41.66714
1974q1	UK	7.472546	-3.86948	3.566466	8.029388	-4.09135	85.39667	-3.05731	13.32333	34.24458
1974q2	UK	14.60516	-4.31432	3.616037	-1.2297	-4.09135	88.40334	-1.58732	13.65333	29.3962
1974q3	UK	14.98508	-3.82694	3.681217	-2.25623	-4.09135	87.60333	0.200328	14.28667	21.0453
1974q4	UK	17.67085	-3.78362	3.747936	-5.2953	-4.09135	86.46667	-0.85919	15.56333	15.81195
1975q1	UK	23.59661	-1.83806	3.953891	-12.7009	-5.16139	87.50333	1.989304	13.54667	20.89966
1975q2	UK	24.94683	-1.29666	4.317319	-15.1544	-5.16139	90.57333	-1.54961	12.84	25.7692
1975q3	UK	24.82635	-2.60208	4.671181	-14.2973	-5.16139	89.76	-2.7497	12.76	24.08058
1975q4	UK	22.71868	-0.67847	5.03762	-11.373	-5.16139	88.80334	-0.17878	13.58	26.24692
1976q1	UK	18.52046	0.465348	5.262153	-9.53127	-5.32635	89.02666	1.201893	12.44	28.09246
1976q2	UK	14.37405	-1.02851	5.394777	-3.47836	-5.32635	82.43667	2.063348	12.76333	27.27881
1976q3	UK	12.25537	-1.46725	5.458432	-0.56642	-5.32635	81	3.210622	13.80333	24.69222
1976q4	UK	12.0153	-0.97908	5.46148	2.806698	-5.32635	76.22667	3.916856	15.43333	20.94783
1977q1	UK	12.36914	-1.08437	5.47277	-1.02683	-3.76184	80.98333	2.35932	13.28333	25.72666
1977q2	UK	13.50192	-1.09905	5.530586	-5.45598	-3.76184	82.29	2.683877	12.18667	27.7335
1977q3	UK	13.40096	0.606891	5.676374	-6.65157	-3.76184	82.33334	2.513935	12.06333	29.64069
1977q4	UK	12.11425	0.678657	5.695072	-6.36143	-3.76184	84.17667	1.841953	10.57667	30.51734
1978q1	UK	12.4512	-0.29512	5.596901	-5.8012	-4.98508	85.82667	2.10739	10.73333	27.89534
1978q2	UK	11.10692	1.095222	5.550076	-2.12026	-4.98508	81.56	3.535549	12.22333	27.92032
1978q3	UK	10.31836	0.2051	5.512199	-0.65503	-4.98508	82.48666	3.84715	12.32667	30.17209
1978q4	UK	10.15788	0.889431	5.366314	1.508784	-4.98508	82.18333	3.215246	12.97667	29.05993
1979q1	UK	10.26023	-1.45214	5.351826	2.426435	-4.08077	84.34666	1.863026	13.20667	29.13125
1979q2	UK	10.15021	-0.27305	5.292678	2.059791	-4.08077	89.69	5.103489	11.9	31.88214
1979q3	UK	15.99372	0.287199	5.364042	-1.90372	-4.08077	97.58667	1.647809	12.38667	27.66542
1979q4	UK	17.50858	-0.65975	5.495327	-1.75192	-4.08077	94.26334	1.939679	14.29	25.64336
1980q1	UK	18.4764	-0.49098	5.811698	-0.7964	-3.71303	99.72667	1.900547	14.69333	25.41271
1980q2	UK	20.37352	-0.73114	6.322053	-3.22352	-3.71303	105.0733	-4.11587	14.10333	24.29092
1980q3	UK	16.58517	1.436723	7.067335	-0.4485	-3.71303	107.8733	-1.98167	13.41667	25.91897
1980q4	UK	16.47874	2.600391	8.026199	-0.96207	-3.71303	112.51	-4.20114	13.44	26.25608
1981q1	UK	14.26918	4.444301	8.875587	-0.94584	-4.99386	115.33	-3.87155	13.82333	25.14395
1981q2	UK	11.40182	2.407058	9.55247	1.061515	-4.99386	114.36	-1.89587	14.25	27.28295
1981q3	UK	9.283821	-0.105	9.926403	4.969512	-4.99386	105.8567	-0.35348	15.44	26.38518
1981q4	UK	8.191998	0.96892	10.2373	7.418001	-4.99386	104.7233	0.812088	16.02	24.43529
1982q1	UK	7.861215	1.421217	10.41117	6.532119	-3.04761	106.6433	1.767824	15.01333	25.87884
1982q2	UK	6.999019	-0.10064	10.57392	6.374314	-3.04761	107.23	2.865664	13.94667	26.86517
1982q3	UK	7.226367	0.309707	10.80718	4.226966	-3.04761	107.7	1.558624	12.35667	27.81852
1982q4	UK	6.542072	1.536363	11.07659	3.391261	-3.04761	104.5867	2.094701	11.02333	30.44088
1983q1	UK	6.101268	1.484493	11.24995	5.072065	-3.85807	94.00333	3.127826	11.68	31.33562
1983q2	UK	5.424584	-0.63517	11.42119	4.72875	-3.85807	99.34	2.658728	11.07	33.77877
1983q3	UK	5.271734	0.939549	11.54989	4.544933	-3.85807	100.91	3.873884	11.5	34.37352
1983q4	UK	4.601206	-0.12698	11.6601	4.765461	-3.85807	99.01667	4.56035	10.82333	33.66228
1984q1	UK	2.904302	1.058095	11.84961	6.355698	-4.14532	96.61667	4.032512	10.76667	37.2271
1984q2	UK	5.828419	-1.36779	11.86841	3.414914	-4.14532	95.08334	2.58212	11.27333	37.38976
1984q3	UK	4.658925	-1.15956	11.74337	6.477742	-4.14532	93.52666	1.86073	11.57	36.61887
1984q4	UK	4.597658	-0.07174	11.63388	5.535675	-4.14532	90.68333	2.086401	10.9	40.08267
1985q1	UK	5.768498	-1.26113	11.48222	7.261502	-3.24209	87.27666	2.240764	11.39333	44.02888
1985q2	UK	5.081069	0.438616	11.37003	7.538931	-3.24209	97.09333	4.506453	11.11	43.81602
1985q3	UK	5.873122	0.228823	11.29962	5.823545	-3.24209	100.59	4.05567	10.71333	42.91317
1985q4	UK	5.94902	-0.08574	11.27901	5.677647	-3.24209	97.22334	3.33742	10.66333	45.83266
1986q1	UK	4.998028	0.388399	11.32279	7.428638	-2.96396	91.11	3.732283	10.51667	50.14089
1986q2	UK	3.180156	-0.98511	11.3381	6.979844	-2.96396	93.16333	3.305952	9.18	54.57154
1986q3	UK	2.936769	-1.89152	11.36795	7.049898	-2.96396	87.38333	3.851002	9.85	53.49424
1986q4	UK	2.407845	-1.18028	11.26901	8.788822	-2.96396	83.05666	4.830945	10.99333	53.76752
1987q1	UK	4.08562	-0.09843	11.10279	6.521046	-2.06432	84.89	3.886823	9.783334	62.85683
1987q2	UK	5.093326	-1.60593	10.73904	4.070007	-2.06432	89.05666	3.803031	8.956667	70.07826
1987q3	UK	5.745563	-1.95321	10.21962	4.054438	-2.06432	88.52666	5.427114	9.876667	75.21199
1987q4	UK	5.824671	-3.24002	9.680039	3.398663	-2.06432	91.11333	4.70141	9.666667	57.60934
1988q1	UK	5.557578	-3.62396	9.194917	3.472422	-0.07335	91.50333	5.803724	9.483334	56.60194
1988q2	UK	5.666178	-3.64866	8.749122	2.753822	-0.07335	95.58	5.225094	9.373333	56.90876
1988q3	UK	5.872412	-3.66009	8.355228	5.494255	-0.07335	94.07667	4.432649	9.95	56.59988
1988q4	UK	7.237581	-5.57343	8.004049	5.262419	-0.07335	95.75	4.210587	9.896667	54.76672
1989q1	UK	7.453743	-4.81265	7.574125	5.602924	0.222741	95.86333	2.932656	9.853333	59.66276
1989q2	UK	6.739022	-5.25946	7.229376	6.734312	0.222741	93.11667	3.088639	10.3	62.72349
1989q3	UK	7.219882	-5.59942	7.090846	6.703451	0.222741	91.28	1.808563	10.09	66.62454
1989q4	UK	6.934955	-4.38426	6.992837	8.148378	0.222741	88.01667	1.21251	10.52	61.78852
1990q1	UK	6.682813	-4.80782	6.933296	8.503853	-2.03583	87.96333	1.669527	11.54667	61.54152
1990q2	UK	7.991275	-4.65714	6.918478	7.118725	-2.03583	90.31667	1.569359	12.31667	58.96724
1990q3	UK	8.370617	-2.81266	7.077965	6.582716	-2.03583	96.46333	0.2742	12.03	55.81164
1990q4	UK	6.792414	-2.90027	7.465062	7.034253	-2.03583	96.77666	-0.41493	11.31667	52.44262
1991q1	UK	7.299216	-2.21781	7.996948	5.907451	-3.41811	95.76334	-1.33358	10.33667	55.33614
1991q2	UK	6.601813	-1.3977	8.662704	4.97152	-3.41811	96.68	-2.19277	10.38333	60.02473
1991q3	UK	5.144046	-1.96009	9.159133	5.612621	-3.41811	95.65	-1.3776	9.983334	61.14757
1991q4	UK	6.009147	-1.52638	9.457517	4.544187	-3.41811	96.21	-0.69753	9.716666	59.06723
1992q1	UK	5.238241	-1.7304	9.700759	5.308426	-6.51813	95.37666	-0.47163	9.48	59.07613
1992q2	UK	4.510538	-2.17594	9.788928	5.709462	-6.51813	97.97	-0.37848	9.19	61.44677
1992q3	UK	2.751654	-2.32234	9.93927	7.411678	-6.51813	96.02333	0.495827	9.196667	55.94049
1992q4	UK	2.283829	-2.13499	10.36081	5.276171	-6.51813	84.38333	0.938891	8.386666	60.9785
1993q1	UK	2.608689	-1.80593	10.60874	3.751312	-7.97758	82.27666	1.414078	7.986667	64.34962
1993q2	UK	1.969739	-2.27453	10.38979	3.976928	-7.97758	84.96333	2.107847	8	64.50422
1993q3	UK	3.525982	-1.85436	10.24677	2.374018	-7.97758	85.58	2.474036	7.216667	66.25174
1993q4	UK	3.212934	-1.69114	10.24278	2.3404	-7.97758	85.37666	2.784848	6.716667	69.65595
1994q1	UK	2.086195	-1.02015	9.937624	3.170472	-6.83029	85.20667	3.240674	6.853333	74.24221
1994q2	UK	1.675808	-1.40883	9.707636	3.494193	-6.83029	84.45667	4.199938	8.276667	69.31773
1994q3	UK	0.736068	-0.66292	9.359152	4.730599	-6.83029	83.06	4.719191	8.693334	69.81904
1994q4	UK	1.780961	-0.84398	8.9574	4.332373	-6.83029	84.05	4.582299	8.666667	66.88293
1995q1	UK	2.011635	-0.15801	8.860805	4.645032	-5.83554	82.54	3.858047	8.66	66.1139
1995q2	UK	2.925462	-2.0469	8.66298	3.751205	-5.83554	80.23	2.98644	8.243333	69.73257
1995q3	UK	3.249144	-1.75801	8.643721	3.520856	-5.83554	80.31333	2.728629	8.11	73.91534
1995q4	UK	2.424965	-0.96759	8.303925	4.195035	-5.83554	79.85	2.438408	7.79	74.06832
1996q1	UK	2.822118	-1.07802	8.232634	3.367882	-4.15453	79.76334	3.015348	7.753334	76.45766
1996q2	UK	3.860871	-0.7739	8.251023	2.095796	-4.15453	81.14667	2.935619	8.066667	77.96801
1996q3	UK	4.161502	-0.82432	8.057574	1.588498	-4.15453	81.87	2.507195	7.853333	77.0943
1996q4	UK	3.386078	-0.56658	7.847897	2.810589	-4.15453	87.63667	2.899146	7.57	79.1266
1997q1	UK	3.13723	0.025238	7.32427	3.099436	-2.23878	92.05334	2.742575	7.403333	81.92756
1997q2	UK	2.153945	0.342551	7.176866	4.342721	-2.23878	94.78667	3.095861	7.316667	83.48275
1997q3	UK	2.782164	0.210993	6.840094	4.324502	-2.23878	97.23	3.3995	6.99	87.14092
1997q4	UK	2.914329	-1.0144	6.544089	4.559005	-2.23878	99.05	3.762699	6.5	89.34853
1998q1	UK	2.497382	-0.7666	6.36386	4.975952	-0.09521	101.4233	3.812268	6.046667	96.24075
1998q2	UK	2.418966	-0.49911	6.282888	5.074367	-0.09521	102.0067	3.614341	5.816667	104.3695
1998q3	UK	1.890552	0.555357	6.240391	5.692781	-0.09521	101.1933	3.45052	5.516667	98.02245
1998q4	UK	1.991705	-0.74465	6.142703	4.811628	-0.09521	97.88333	3.299595	4.82	93.9418
1999q1	UK	2.128025	-2.86733	6.174082	3.381975	0.928472	97.55	3.058154	4.46	103.0721
1999q2	UK	2.393903	-2.0418	6.043689	2.806097	0.928472	100.1633	3.222317	4.89	108.1697
1999q3	UK	1.998393	-1.89034	5.891709	3.191607	0.928472	99.17333	3.649972	5.496666	108.0082
1999q4	UK	1.793257	-2.62159	5.806296	4.103409	0.928472	100.9967	3.715296	5.526667	111.1125
2000q1	UK	1.615046	-2.24934	5.78797	4.504954	3.674837	101.6567	4.248661	5.606667	116.5887
2000q2	UK	1.024549	-2.40067	5.504145	5.168784	3.674837	100.5933	4.433083	5.31	112.9338
2000q3	UK	1.001804	-2.41244	5.325545	5.12153	3.674837	98.37666	3.671592	5.32	113.903
2000q4	UK	1.09092	-3.48477	5.226397	4.89908	3.674837	99.37666	3.026699	5.076667	107.3249
2001q1	UK	2.078237	-1.58894	5.085386	3.561763	0.647565	96.58	3.012477	4.79	100
2001q2	UK	2.101586	-2.28565	5.038388	3.128414	0.647565	98.18333	2.293746	5.09	95.89201
2001q3	UK	1.777899	-2.11561	5.098093	3.145434	0.647565	98.06333	2.256712	5.06	86.37955
2001q4	UK	2.450627	-2.26384	5.178766	1.642706	0.647565	98.2	2.171829	4.783333	83.36509
2002q1	UK	2.48405	-1.79491	5.161114	1.522616	-1.97357	98.45	1.785093	5.023334	83.05516
2002q2	UK	3.054216	-2.26042	5.171066	1.045784	-1.97357	97.15667	1.934463	5.2	79.61359
2002q3	UK	3.532687	-0.93034	5.312437	0.41398	-1.97357	97.71	2.162659	4.75	65.36156
2002q4	UK	3.114679	-1.95818	5.116248	0.805321	-1.97357	98.45	2.412136	4.606667	62.11958
2003q1	UK	2.991581	-0.50394	5.16286	0.735086	-3.70416	94.82	2.262174	4.306667	57.30674
2003q2	UK	2.949306	-1.83265	4.949594	0.624027	-3.70416	92.32	2.801236	4.266667	61.48613
2003q3	UK	3.047734	-2.2704	5.062908	0.452266	-3.70416	92.29	2.861275	4.573333	64.43382
2003q4	UK	3.068216	-1.78424	4.899058	0.795117	-3.70416	93.64667	3.181384	4.96	67.24512
2004q1	UK	2.187427	-1.82516	4.796838	1.91924	-3.6736	97.03667	3.073114	4.77	69.51874
2004q2	UK	2.360159	-2.17338	4.818027	2.146508	-3.6736	97.61333	3.071924	5.09	70.00981
2004q3	UK	2.404948	-2.81657	4.699267	2.445052	-3.6736	97.19666	2.514366	5.01	68.65784
2004q4	UK	2.964139	-1.58235	4.737175	1.855861	-3.6736	95.23	2.23296	4.663333	71.97919
2005q1	UK	2.996758	-2.2969	4.690973	1.849908	-3.33907	95.55334	2.206294	4.643333	75.63804
2005q2	UK	2.682314	-1.06986	4.766324	2.147686	-3.33907	96.49333	1.89377	4.44	76.26844
2005q3	UK	1.604735	-3.72174	4.760804	2.948598	-3.33907	95.05	2.111073	4.276667	82.56823
2005q4	UK	1.531749	-3.33776	5.158952	3.028251	-3.33907	95.05	1.937639	4.293334	83.88065
2006q1	UK	2.286166	-3.01674	5.235945	2.243834	-2.7167	94.15334	2.649336	4.183333	88.92842
2006q2	UK	1.51902	-2.80519	5.50088	3.117647	-2.7167	95	2.696779	4.61
2006q3	UK	3.430695	-3.71523	5.492898	1.422638	-2.7167	97.2	2.741116	4.62
2006q4	UK	3.101179	-4.05863	5.512962	2.072154	-2.7167	99.31	3.10197	4.596667	92.7727
2007q1	UK	2.563637	-4.47523	5.539122	2.926362	-2.8097	100.3067	2.856208	4.863333	94.93712
2007q2	UK	3.532664	-3.56217	5.392427	2.187336	-2.8097	99.65334	2.937288	5.206666	100.0675
2007q3	UK	2.711505	-4.49282	5.314572	3.588495	-2.8097	99.46333	3.244157	5.183333	98.20632
2007q4	UK	2.542081	-2.50883	5.167742	3.764586	-2.8097	96.60667	2.887296	4.793334	100.9587
2008q1	UK	3.288641	-1.51624	5.218006	2.404692	-3.57048	90.69	2.278837	4.516667
2008q2	UK	2.762983	-3.02074	5.402372	3.10035	-3.57048	88.12334	1.528855	4.906667

Figure 11. United States

Data for Figure 11 immediately follows

Data for Figure 11

TIME	COUNTRY	INFLATION	CURRACCTPERGDP	UNEMPRATE	REALINTRATE	FISCBALPERGDP	REALEFFEXRATE	GDP4QCHANGE	BONDRATE	REALEQUITYINDEX
1970q1	US		0.243783	4.171836		-2.03173	127.2067		7.366667	29.3199
1970q2	US		0.376307	4.758694		-2.03173	127.5833		7.713333	25.54257
1970q3	US		0.19606	5.181016		-2.03173	126.9633		7.46	24.9672
1970q4	US		0.084339	5.81451		-2.03173	126.77		6.853333	26.85551
1971q1	US	4.930168	0.248748	5.926032	0.746499	-2.73046	125.53	2.730984	6.016667	30.0842
1971q2	US	4.881484	-0.14619	5.919289	1.93185	-2.73046	124.8867	3.104914	6.246666	31.12253
1971q3	US	5.084054	-0.18819	5.994625	2.779279	-2.73046	123.8533	3.011683	6.483333	30.10469
1971q4	US	4.595172	-0.4074	5.965502	1.551494	-2.73046	119.5267	4.373917	5.89	29.163
1972q1	US	4.670345	-0.56879	5.794104	0.516322	-1.31834	115.3567	3.39904	6.033333	31.47884
1972q2	US	3.944681	-0.55111	5.684467	1.055319	-1.31834	113.86	5.170367	6.143333	31.98211
1972q3	US	3.919529	-0.4113	5.609955	1.780471	-1.31834	113.0567	5.329425	6.29	31.67203
1972q4	US	4.440475	-0.3512	5.330272	1.539525	-1.31834	113.4133	6.667002	6.373333	32.60176
1973q1	US	4.072071	0.043429	4.976256	3.847929	-0.22962	108.4967	7.412763	6.603333	31.88334
1973q2	US	5.023206	0.254538	4.915472	3.623461	-0.22962	103.1833	6.228929	6.806667	28.78004
1973q3	US	5.980064	0.786947	4.818722	5.186603	-0.22962	99.89	4.746253	7.206666	27.90879
1973q4	US	6.622471	0.944774	4.79471	3.327528	-0.22962	100.8767	4.074292	6.753334	26.73789
1974q1	US	7.321965	0.445612	5.110219	1.848035	-1.00668	100.68	0.696706	7.053333	24.69355
1974q2	US	8.107479	0.029624	5.186514	4.249187	-1.00668	96.54	-0.16546	7.543334	22.3167
1974q3	US	9.076384	-0.07793	5.60849	4.153616	-1.00668	98.79333	-0.60433	7.963333	18.16332
1974q4	US	10.06522	0.136732	6.580859	0.201451	-1.00668	98.1	-1.94876	7.67	16.21326
1975q1	US	10.44	1.071847	8.241331	-3.2	-5.19433	95.50333	-2.28168	7.54	18.07451
1975q2	US	9.628777	1.249128	8.852516	-3.08878	-5.19433	94.53333	-1.84071	8.05	19.9942
1975q3	US	8.567731	0.9813	8.491244	-1.11106	-5.19433	97.84	0.811875	8.296667	19.62986
1975q4	US	7.365957	1.122828	8.283085	-0.78596	-5.19433	98.31333	2.507413	8.063334	19.28983
1976q1	US	6.20028	0.579036	7.746881	-0.67361	-3.32142	97.13	5.936896	7.753334	21.43086
1976q2	US	5.750546	0.365228	7.550143	0.299455	-3.32142	96.65334	5.950226	7.773334	21.72131
1976q3	US	5.267295	-0.01828	7.723276	0.469371	-3.32142	97.06	4.7485	7.73	22.19413
1976q4	US	5.330873	0.034583	7.756449	-0.10087	-3.32142	98.20667	4.159844	7.19	21.29477
1977q1	US	5.853141	-0.55422	7.516001	-0.60314	-2.14927	96.95	3.134833	7.353333	21.19847
1977q2	US	6.226793	-0.60439	7.127611	-0.46679	-2.14927	96.06667	4.336957	7.37	20.41002
1977q3	US	6.082476	-0.53358	6.887066	0.407524	-2.14927	94.86667	5.633548	7.356667	19.92421
1977q4	US	6.426347	-1.11044	6.635159	0.70032	-2.14927	92.35667	4.909549	7.596667	18.79467
1978q1	US	6.284299	-1.30605	6.322283	1.069035	-1.27686	89.76334	4.029772	8.01	17.82397
1978q2	US	6.658981	-0.66391	5.994945	1.244352	-1.27686	88.86	5.951121	8.32	18.86786
1978q3	US	7.094747	-0.62786	6.016802	1.655253	-1.27686	85.09333	5.15767	8.49	19.90127
1978q4	US	7.033239	-0.11237	5.879189	4.080095	-1.27686	84.47334	6.474876	8.82	18.39412
1979q1	US	7.300087	-0.06882	5.872942	3.606579	-0.92947	85.98333	6.347965	9.106667	18.721
1979q2	US	7.92522	-0.10935	5.708973	2.741446	-0.92947	88.16333	2.577427	9.113334	18.69028
1979q3	US	8.411578	0.141962	5.863231	3.308422	-0.92947	87.69666	2.313921	9.103333	19.32359
1979q4	US	8.297203	-0.01473	5.934795	6.429463	-0.92947	89.72667	1.301495	10.44667	18.7434
1980q1	US	8.637546	-0.50769	6.291503	7.562455	-2.59632	90.63333	1.425468	11.98667	19.34298
1980q2	US	8.386487	-0.13791	7.318139	4.330179	-2.59632	90.48333	-0.70899	10.47667	18.53852
1980q3	US	8.496912	0.621977	7.675145	2.276422	-2.59632	87.94	-1.59276	10.95333	20.77069
1980q4	US	9.250699	0.326785	7.392849	7.2993	-2.59632	89.43	-0.04997	12.42333	21.86438
1981q1	US	9.707351	0.126183	7.420702	7.169316	-2.23036	91.52666	1.63745	12.96	20.95679
1981q2	US	9.38614	0.159176	7.392901	8.310527	-2.23036	96.18333	2.893671	13.75	20.92123
1981q3	US	8.902695	0.261868	7.411196	9.490639	-2.23036	101.33	4.262324	14.84667	19.51968
1981q4	US	7.978897	0.094982	8.234813	6.354436	-2.23036	98.06667	1.171482	14.08667	18.66083
1982q1	US	6.786663	-0.03577	8.837234	8.250004	-4.84712	101.6233	-2.48759	14.29333	17.2386
1982q2	US	6.125256	0.467388	9.419347	8.921412	-4.84712	105.86	-1.16896	13.93	16.86703
1982q3	US	5.771717	-0.49325	9.936455	6.781616	-4.84712	112.0333	-2.75053	13.11667	16.46833
1982q4	US	5.033345	-0.60307	10.67001	4.856656	-4.84712	111.4233	-1.40821	10.66667	19.68061
1983q1	US	4.500954	-0.29761	10.39028	4.659046	-5.60413	108.21	1.470657	10.56333	21.11987
1983q2	US	4.014781	-0.89929	10.09526	5.318552	-5.60413	109.9867	3.165563	10.54333	23.19292
1983q3	US	3.626833	-1.43772	9.353079	6.449834	-5.60413	113.29	5.500467	11.62667	23.42951
1983q4	US	3.308469	-1.67397	8.534509	6.548198	-5.60413	112.8733	7.437357	11.68667	23.25393
1984q1	US	3.731133	-2.19761	7.864323	6.3522	-4.74744	113.05	8.147946	11.94333	22.19605
1984q2	US	3.872983	-2.39871	7.471136	7.533684	-4.74744	113.5967	7.623966	13.2	21.24209
1984q3	US	3.650884	-2.35121	7.44427	8.219116	-4.74744	119.1933	6.636334	12.86667	21.67991
1984q4	US	3.530325	-2.63499	7.275141	6.246341	-4.74744	121.1867	5.429032	11.74333	22.29667
1985q1	US	3.408851	-2.28368	7.271931	5.561149	-5.01333	125.5	4.411912	11.58333	23.68677
1985q2	US	3.118629	-2.74641	7.280699	5.068037	-5.01333	122.9067	3.556284	10.81333	24.58932
1985q3	US	2.73539	-2.93835	7.202265	5.341277	-5.01333	119.5967	4.139099	10.33667	25.07787
1985q4	US	2.74782	-3.20681	7.045784	5.33218	-5.01333	113.48	4.086536	9.76	25.94286
1986q1	US	2.14027	-3.12012	7.007161	5.696396	-5.24892	108.2333	4.119192	8.556666	28.72632
1986q2	US	2.086143	-3.22589	7.171718	4.837191	-5.24892	103.5867	3.663868	7.603333	31.19011
1986q3	US	2.248277	-3.38672	6.982186	3.96839	-5.24892	100.5767	3.066388	7.306667	31.15526
1986q4	US	2.256515	-3.4514	6.826212	3.823485	-5.24892	100.8033	2.803262	7.263333	31.09599
1987q1	US	2.56533	-3.40414	6.611577	3.748004	-4.2932	96.73	2.50721	7.193333	35.10505
1987q2	US	2.594952	-3.41023	6.271519	4.498381	-4.2932	93.57333	3.205453	8.343333	36.32803
1987q3	US	2.760904	-3.36667	6.004758	4.399096	-4.2932	94.47334	3.155497	8.876667	39.00604
1987q4	US	2.832323	-3.37941	5.859395	5.061011	-4.2932	89.92667	4.384238	9.123333	30.9241
1988q1	US	2.855734	-2.66177	5.717859	4.050933	-3.55964	86.90334	4.216218	8.416667	31.21611
1988q2	US	3.263014	-2.28301	5.477261	4.150319	-3.55964	85.78	4.385701	8.91	31.60455
1988q3	US	3.630345	-2.17029	5.482433	4.709655	-3.55964	89.86	4.014785	9.1	31.79718
1988q4	US	3.655243	-2.38971	5.3401	5.301424	-3.55964	86.48333	3.594483	8.956667	32.23152
1989q1	US	3.935161	-2.12346	5.205111	5.861506	-3.22144	87.75667	4.116475	9.206667	33.7298
1989q2	US	3.937458	-1.8458	5.234022	5.792542	-3.22144	90.58334	3.507337	8.773334	35.7772
1989q3	US	3.534935	-1.59439	5.266652	5.358399	-3.22144	91.03667	3.68457	8.106667	38.65987
1989q4	US	3.4756	-1.70299	5.362868	5.107733	-3.22144	89.75	2.627047	7.906667	38.52402
1990q1	US	3.539511	-1.65461	5.300468	4.830488	-4.24042	89.04	2.765639	8.423333	36.91482
1990q2	US	3.742253	-1.34702	5.337629	4.684413	-4.24042	89.32667	2.367109	8.676666	37.63063
1990q3	US	3.916414	-1.47277	5.687819	4.220252	-4.24042	86.26334	1.66436	8.703333	35.91914
1990q4	US	3.975621	-0.97511	6.114112	4.081045	-4.24042	82.80666	0.652124	8.396667	33.53216
1991q1	US	3.965293	0.676427	6.574602	2.871373	-4.91501	83.09	-1.00758	8.016666	36.958
1991q2	US	3.449217	0.169341	6.824076	2.68745	-4.91501	86.66333	-0.61617	8.13	39.41497
1991q3	US	3.275358	-0.27742	6.85413	2.537975	-4.91501	86.50333	-0.14174	7.94	39.86659
1991q4	US	3.051385	-0.35441	7.097501	1.958615	-4.91501	83.19666	1.084966	7.346667	40.14166
1992q1	US	2.473541	-0.40245	7.380023	1.713125	-5.7694	83.33667	2.626824	7.303333	42.54495
1992q2	US	2.379018	-0.75611	7.595618	1.604316	-5.7694	83.38667	2.939507	7.376667	41.95469
1992q3	US	2.122741	-0.82552	7.627626	1.227259	-5.7694	80.55666	3.434383	6.616667	42.36101
1992q4	US	2.116149	-1.15892	7.407388	1.440517	-5.7694	84.19334	4.062237	6.743333	42.85244
1993q1	US	2.290474	-0.90342	7.151011	0.926193	-4.94487	86.01667	3.152516	6.28	44.51809
1993q2	US	2.294135	-1.25098	7.070204	0.909199	-4.94487	83.60333	2.6983	5.99	44.62451
1993q3	US	2.272113	-1.2766	6.80095	0.924553	-4.94487	84.49333	2.234168	5.616667	45.48051
1993q4	US	2.281885	-1.65042	6.620592	1.074782	-4.94487	85.68333	2.474924	5.606667	46.1668
1994q1	US	2.110014	-1.44587	6.55739	1.396652	-3.56111	86.10333	3.366425	6.066667	46.57884
1994q2	US	1.980587	-1.62592	6.167195	2.429412	-3.56111	85.30666	4.15649	7.083333	44.43653
1994q3	US	2.187856	-1.77695	6.003081	2.715477	-3.56111	83.24333	4.203146	7.333333	44.95148
1994q4	US	2.127537	-2.01571	5.621281	3.765796	-3.56111	83.08667	4.031593	7.836667	44.40206
1995q1	US	2.155796	-1.72281	5.479974	4.084204	-3.14019	85.78667	3.296918	7.483333	45.58544
1995q2	US	2.094748	-1.74512	5.676733	3.965252	-3.14019	80.54667	2.180588	6.62	49.12304
1995q3	US	1.925505	-1.45192	5.660601	3.887829	-3.14019	82.71	2.433412	6.323333	52.57816
1995q4	US	1.938397	-1.23081	5.574337	3.821603	-3.14019	85.13333	1.997128	5.893333	55.10365
1996q1	US	1.945043	-1.43965	5.547865	3.391623	-2.18215	86.70667	2.422236	5.91	58.39553
1996q2	US	1.940529	-1.53486	5.472674	3.496138	-2.18215	86.98666	3.868852	6.72	60.38872
1996q3	US	1.784731	-1.83357	5.261969	3.725269	-2.18215	86.95333	3.89193	6.78	60.20131
1996q4	US	1.833611	-1.57167	5.313042	3.643055	-2.18215	87.70667	4.32569	6.343333	65.22839
1997q1	US	1.831885	-1.77865	5.226836	3.671449	-0.79477	90.93	4.393324	6.563334	69.58301
1997q2	US	1.638716	-1.3962	4.977886	4.08795	-0.79477	91.42	4.27553	6.696667	72.39236
1997q3	US	1.671731	-1.56132	4.86102	3.974935	-0.79477	92.31667	4.67822	6.243333	81.09445
1997q4	US	1.467609	-2.03636	4.683639	4.299058	-0.79477	94.85667	4.250452	5.906667	83.30353
1998q1	US	1.084192	-2.04987	4.641226	4.525808	0.43415	98.51667	4.580621	5.586667	88.66763
1998q2	US	1.089251	-2.37235	4.41748	4.530749	0.43415	99.06667	3.731797	5.596667	95.47747
1998q3	US	1.108834	-2.67997	4.532415	4.437833	0.43415	101.43	3.639492	5.203333	90.11859
1998q4	US	1.128373	-2.71724	4.433726	4.094961	0.43415	96.57667	4.412212	4.67	90.87143
1999q1	US	1.281361	-2.79117	4.288457	3.651972	0.851547	96.4	4.156924	4.983333	98.01797
1999q2	US	1.46922	-3.14363	4.252806	3.524113	0.851547	97.51	4.321993	5.54	103.3669
1999q3	US	1.453731	-3.46624	4.248359	3.946269	0.851547	96.67	4.336982	5.883333	102.167
1999q4	US	1.535026	-3.59473	4.083119	4.568307	0.851547	95.19334	4.591407	6.14	101.4188
2000q1	US	2.023111	-4.10501	4.049799	4.040223	1.621426	96.75	3.999249	6.48	99.99666
2000q2	US	2.098582	-4.05738	3.948753	4.488084	1.621426	99.36333	4.733609	6.176667	103.5958
2000q3	US	2.264734	-4.38673	4.030797	4.391932	1.621426	100.5467	3.458677	5.893333	105.7363
2000q4	US	2.244246	-4.4533	3.919484	4.379087	1.621426	103.3333	2.21495	5.566667	102.75
2001q1	US	2.15169	-4.29109	4.230631	3.141643	-0.38779	104.5367	1.839489	5.05	100
2001q2	US	2.48142	-3.85195	4.41145	1.645247	-0.38779	106.8	0.587231	5.27	98.23568
2001q3	US	2.380436	-3.61137	4.81961	1.01623	-0.38779	106.2267	0.350117	4.98	91.60966
2001q4	US	2.477569	-3.44766	5.53682	-0.38757	-0.38779	106.46	0.225279	4.77	88.65456
2002q1	US	2.039353	-4.05346	5.704395	-0.17602	-3.7905	108.59	1.024544	5.076667	90.22237
2002q2	US	1.635791	-4.45399	5.844119	0.237543	-3.7905	105.8867	1.260957	5.1	87.62192
2002q3	US	1.597387	-4.42917	5.729458	0.175947	-3.7905	102.74	2.200291	4.26	74.06182
2002q4	US	1.647607	-4.67876	5.848592	-0.12761	-3.7905	103.0433	1.857515	4.006667	72.37692
2003q1	US	2.060143	-5.0698	5.872725	-0.78014	-4.83247	100.57	1.479386	3.92	69.28345
2003q2	US	2.023407	-4.82815	6.150262	-0.83341	-4.83247	96.89	1.789193	3.62	75.27914
2003q3	US	2.164407	-4.71033	6.104765	-1.07774	-4.83247	97.32333	3.006659	4.233333	80.01356
2003q4	US	2.153138	-4.50733	5.818207	-1.02647	-4.83247	93.30666	3.610795	4.286667	85.34826
2004q1	US	2.291599	-4.78552	5.679702	-1.2216	-4.35331	91.29	4.041267	4.02	92.38029
2004q2	US	2.896327	-5.36338	5.586257	-1.63966	-4.35331	94.38333	4.044318	4.6	90.2095
2004q3	US	2.941854	-5.24529	5.439621	-1.21519	-4.35331	93.41666	3.12416	4.303333	88.95396
2004q4	US	3.196712	-5.97233	5.391785	-0.93005	-4.35331	89.10667	3.098529	4.173333	94.2992
2005q1	US	3.265681	-5.72773	5.273019	-0.45568	-3.25877	88.35333	3.10211	4.296667	97.43162
2005q2	US	2.85953	-5.78397	5.114297	0.39047	-3.25877	90.37666	2.8908	4.16	96.19469
2005q3	US	3.291974	-5.38808	4.982118	0.454693	-3.25877	91.97334	2.950804	4.213333	99.87407
2005q4	US	3.423345	-6.56006	4.941349	0.889989	-3.25877	93.49333	2.647933	4.49	100.2112
2006q1	US	3.314615	-6.04809	4.706964	1.428718	-2.23966	92.39667	3.091709	4.57	105.8475
2006q2	US	3.473127	-6.08815	4.668561	1.713539	-2.23966	91.4	3.108471	5.07	107.0824
2006q3	US	3.156809	-6.36717	4.659008	2.243191	-2.23966	91.13333	2.361931	4.896667	106.7994
2006q4	US	2.7613	-5.42569	4.442943	2.5687	-2.23966	89.99	2.408939	4.63	114.0206
2007q1	US	2.921248	-5.83026	4.496398	2.398752	-2.89298	90.95	1.24475	4.68	117.0899
2007q2	US	2.738642	-5.65148	4.513496	2.578025	-2.89298	89.76667	1.753099	4.846667	123.5798
2007q3	US	2.438667	-4.95898	4.681727	3.011333	-2.89298	87.95667	2.716843	4.73	122.7709
2007q4	US	2.525596	-4.76769	4.799566	2.51107	-2.89298	84.37334	2.300653	4.26	124.1462
2008q1	US	2.121631	-4.96481	4.939889	1.125036	-5.29243	83.47667	2.505804	3.663333	112.0883
2008q2	US	1.941641	-5.12496	5.317349	0.991692	-5.29243	82.68333	2.032906	3.886667	114.2727

Footnotes

* Visiting Associate Director, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551 U.S.A. I owe a tremendous debt of gratitude to Hilary Croke and Steve Kamin, who worked with me on a previous attempt to get at the issues covered by this paper and who provided helpful comments and advice. I also thank Hilary for putting together the initial dataset and chart package and for collecting the IMF documents. The views expressed here are my own and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or of any other person associated with the Federal Reserve System. Return to text

1. See, for example, Volcker (2005), The Financial Times (2008), and The Wall Street Journal (2008). Return to text

2. This paper does not shed light on whether inflation, by itself, is harmful to growth. Indeed, there appear to be episodes in which growth was lackluster after high inflation even in the absence of tight macroeconomic policies. However, the differences in growth outcomes are clearly accentuated by differences in policy stance. Return to text

3. Five of the 26 countries with BIS exchange rate data (Hong Kong, Mexico, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan) are not classified as industrial countries by the International Monetary Fund. These countries are now considered to be "advanced," but they were still viewed as developing countries in the 1970s and 1980s. Austria is also among the countries in the BIS dataset, but quarterly national accounts data for Austria are not available over most of our sample period. Austria did not experience a currency crash under the definition used here. Return to text

4. Greek equity prices from 1979 through 1984 were obtained from the Bank of Greece Reports for the years 1982-85. Greek unemployment rates are available only at an annual frequency. The Greek current account for 1998 was obtained from Eurostat. Greek current account data were not available on a seasonally adjusted basis, and were adjusted by regressing on quarterly dummies. Spanish current account data for 1982 contained extremely large quarterly fluctuations that appear to be spurious. They were replaced by a flat value equal to the average for the year. Return to text

5. The balances for New Zealand from 1971 through 1985 refer to fiscal years (ending March 31) and were obtained from the IMF Recent Economic Developments papers cited in the case studies for New Zealand. The balances for Portugal from 1974 through 1977 were obtained from the IMF Recent Economic Developments paper cited in the 1977 case study for Portugal. Return to text

6. The depreciation is measured as the difference in the logarithm of the exchange rate. Return to text

7. UK1976 meets this criterion when data are rounded to three decimal places. Return to text

8. Twelve of these episodes would also meet a stricter standard of at least a 20 percent depreciation. The episodes that would not satisfy the stricter standard are FI1992, GC1980, IT1973, SD1983, SP1993, UK1976, and US1986. Return to text

9. The dashed vertical line for the United States represents the dollar crisis of 1978, which did not meet these criteria, but was widely viewed as a period of intense weakness of the U.S. dollar. Return to text

10. Inflation before the crash is included to capture inflationary pressure in fixed exchange rate regimes. Inflation after the crash is included to capture inflationary pressure in floating exchange rate regimes or cases in which a devaluation of the fixed exchange rate was one of the primary inflationary policy actions. Return to text

11. Under a fixed exchange rate, reserve depletion often precedes a currency crash for both high inflation and high unemployment episodes. Under a floating exchange rate, reserves generally have little relationship with currency crashes. Return to text

12. For UK1976, both excess inflation and the change in unemployment were very close to the one standard deviation threshold. For AL1985, the current account deficit was close to the threshold and, as mentioned above, IMF reports indicate that the crash was spurred by financial market concerns over future inflation. For US1986, the current account deficit was unprecedented both in terms of U.S. experience and relative to the volume of global trade. For IT1993, as mentioned above, unemployment started to rise rapidly less than a year before the crash and continued to rise for several quarters afterwards. Return to text

13. A shorter window is used for the financial variables because they adjust to the crash faster than the other variables adjust. Return to text

14. The change in inflation is not included because it is strongly affected by the exchange rate regime and the policy environment surrounding the crash. The change in net exports is not included because it is almost always positive and because GDP is a broader gauge of the effects on economic activity. Return to text

15. Episodes are deemed to last until inflation falls below the two standard deviation threshold for four consecutive quarters. Return to text

16. An inflationary episode is associated with a currency crash if a crash started in any of the four quarters before or the eight quarters after the inflation criterion was met. These episodes were NZ1975, IT1976, PT1977, SP1977, GC1980, PT1982, and NZ1984. Return to text

17. The lag in the response to the oil shock may reflect pervasive price controls that existed in New Zealand at that time. (IMF RED April 1976, p. 10) Return to text

18. Bad weather conditions "that necessitated a sharp increase in energy and agricultural imports" and a global recession temporarily boosted the current account deficit in 1981 and 1982. (IMF RED July 1984, p. 1) Return to text

19. See Boughton (2001, p. 110). Return to text

20. According to IMF ART July 1984 (p. 2), the inflation target was 3 percent for 1985. In the event, consumer price inflation was 6 percent over the four quarters of 1985. Return to text

21. In addition to the increase in real net exports, the current account benefited from a fall in the price of oil imports and an increase in transfers from the European Community. (IMF RED August 1987, p. 114) Return to text

22. Bank of Greece Report for 1987, April 1988, p. 11. Return to text

23. IMF RED July 1986, p. 27 points to real interest differentials in favor of U.S. assets as the primary factor behind dollar appreciation from mid-1980 through mid-1982. After that period, interest differentials moved in the opposite direction and causality becomes more speculative. Potential factors include a relatively favorable investment climate and "expectations of a continuing appreciation of the dollar which for a time became self-sustaining," i.e., a bubble. Return to text

24. In 1987Q4 equity prices fell sharply. The cause of the 1987 equity crash remains a puzzle, but equity prices fully recovered by 1989 and there were no apparent harmful macroeconomic effects. Return to text

25. It is notable that IMF Article IV documents from 1991 through 1993 avoid any discussion of the link between German monetary tightening and the Italian macroeconomic situation. Presumably this omission reflects the IMF's desire not to distract the focus of Italian policy makers from the need to cut Italy's large fiscal deficit. For a more comprehensive discussion of the effect of German unification on other European countries, see Adams, Alexander, and Gagnon (1993) and Gagnon, Masson, and McKibbin (1997). Return to text

26. Indeed, the fiscal deficit shrank modestly (as a share of GDP) in 1993 despite the recession. Return to text

27. According to IMF ART December 1994, pp. 5-15, transfers to recapitalize the banking system in 1992 and 1993 totaled about 6 percent of 1993 GDP. Return to text

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