Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test 2015: Supervisory Stress Test Methodology and Results
Print- Supervisory Scenarios
- Supervisory Stress Test Framework and Model Methodology
- Supervisory Stress Test Results
- Appendix A: Supervisory Scenarios
- Appendix B: Models to Project Net Income and Stressed Capital
- Appendix C: BHC-Specific Results
- Appendix D: Additional Aggregate Results
Appendix A: Supervisory Scenarios
This appendix includes the adverse and severely adverse scenarios provided by the Federal Reserve.
It is important to note that the adverse and severely adverse scenarios are not forecasts but rather are hypothetical scenarios designed to assess the strength of banking organizations and their resilience to adverse economic environments.
| Level | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Real GDP growth | Nominal GDP growth | Real dispo- sable income growth |
Nominal dispo- sable income growth |
Un- employ- ment rate |
CPI inflation rate |
3-month Treasury rate |
5-year Treasury yield | 10-year Treasury yield | BBB corporate yield | Mortgage rate |
Prime rate |
Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index | House Price Index |
Com- mercial Real Estate Price Index |
Market Volatility Index |
| 2001:Q1 | -1.1 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 10645.9 | 113.2 | 139.5 | 32.8 |
| 2001:Q2 | 2.1 | 5.1 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 11407.2 | 115.2 | 138.6 | 34.7 |
| 2001:Q3 | -1.3 | 0.0 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 9563.0 | 117.5 | 141.0 | 43.7 |
| 2001:Q4 | 1.1 | 2.3 | -4.9 | -4.6 | 5.5 | -0.3 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 10707.7 | 119.8 | 135.6 | 35.3 |
| 2002:Q1 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 10775.7 | 122.1 | 137.4 | 26.1 |
| 2002:Q2 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 9384.0 | 125.4 | 135.8 | 28.4 |
| 2002:Q3 | 2.0 | 3.8 | -0.5 | 1.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 7773.6 | 128.7 | 138.7 | 45.1 |
| 2002:Q4 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 8343.2 | 131.3 | 142.5 | 42.6 |
| 2003:Q1 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 8051.9 | 134.1 | 147.9 | 34.7 |
| 2003:Q2 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 6.1 | -0.7 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 9342.4 | 137.0 | 149.2 | 29.1 |
| 2003:Q3 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 9649.7 | 141.1 | 147.3 | 22.7 |
| 2003:Q4 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 10799.6 | 146.0 | 145.7 | 21.1 |
| 2004:Q1 | 2.3 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 11039.4 | 151.8 | 152.9 | 21.6 |
| 2004:Q2 | 3.0 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 11144.6 | 158.0 | 160.4 | 20.0 |
| 2004:Q3 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 10893.8 | 163.4 | 171.8 | 19.3 |
| 2004:Q4 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 11951.5 | 169.4 | 175.8 | 16.6 |
| 2005:Q1 | 4.3 | 8.3 | -3.8 | -1.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 11637.3 | 177.6 | 175.8 | 14.6 |
| 2005:Q2 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 11856.7 | 185.0 | 182.3 | 17.7 |
| 2005:Q3 | 3.4 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 12282.9 | 190.8 | 187.1 | 14.2 |
| 2005:Q4 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 12497.2 | 195.5 | 195.4 | 16.5 |
| 2006:Q1 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 13121.6 | 198.7 | 200.0 | 14.6 |
| 2006:Q2 | 1.2 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 12808.9 | 197.8 | 209.0 | 23.8 |
| 2006:Q3 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 13322.5 | 196.5 | 218.6 | 18.6 |
| 2006:Q4 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | -1.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 14215.8 | 196.5 | 217.3 | 12.7 |
| 2007:Q1 | 0.2 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 14354.0 | 194.0 | 227.1 | 19.6 |
| 2007:Q2 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 15163.1 | 189.1 | 236.4 | 18.9 |
| 2007:Q3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 15317.8 | 183.6 | 249.1 | 30.8 |
| 2007:Q4 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 14753.6 | 178.1 | 251.5 | 31.1 |
| 2008:Q1 | -2.7 | -0.5 | 2.9 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 13284.1 | 171.2 | 239.9 | 32.2 |
| 2008:Q2 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.7 | 13.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 13016.4 | 163.9 | 223.9 | 24.1 |
| 2008:Q3 | -1.9 | 0.8 | -8.9 | -5.1 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 11826.0 | 157.3 | 233.4 | 46.7 |
| 2008:Q4 | -8.2 | -7.7 | 2.6 | -3.2 | 6.9 | -8.9 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 9056.7 | 149.2 | 222.5 | 80.9 |
| 2009:Q1 | -5.4 | -4.5 | -0.8 | -3.0 | 8.3 | -2.7 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 8044.2 | 143.1 | 208.9 | 56.7 |
| 2009:Q2 | -0.5 | -1.2 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 9342.8 | 142.9 | 178.5 | 42.3 |
| 2009:Q3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | -4.3 | -1.9 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 10812.8 | 144.1 | 154.0 | 31.3 |
| 2009:Q4 | 3.9 | 5.2 | -0.5 | 2.2 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 11385.1 | 145.0 | 155.2 | 30.7 |
| 2010:Q1 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 9.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 12032.5 | 145.5 | 149.8 | 27.3 |
| 2010:Q2 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 10645.8 | 144.4 | 164.5 | 45.8 |
| 2010:Q3 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 9.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 11814.0 | 141.3 | 166.9 | 32.9 |
| 2010:Q4 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 13131.5 | 140.0 | 172.7 | 23.5 |
| 2011:Q1 | -1.5 | 0.2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 13908.5 | 138.1 | 179.6 | 29.4 |
| 2011:Q2 | 2.9 | 6.0 | -0.6 | 3.5 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 13843.5 | 137.3 | 177.0 | 22.7 |
| 2011:Q3 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 9.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 11676.5 | 137.3 | 177.0 | 48.0 |
| 2011:Q4 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 8.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 13019.3 | 137.1 | 188.4 | 45.5 |
| 2012:Q1 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 14627.5 | 139.3 | 188.2 | 23.0 |
| 2012:Q2 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 8.2 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 14100.2 | 142.5 | 189.4 | 26.7 |
| 2012:Q3 | 2.5 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 8.0 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 14894.7 | 145.4 | 196.6 | 20.5 |
| 2012:Q4 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 11.8 | 13.8 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 14834.9 | 148.9 | 198.3 | 22.7 |
| 2013:Q1 | 2.7 | 4.2 | -12.6 | -11.7 | 7.7 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 16396.2 | 153.8 | 203.2 | 19.0 |
| 2013:Q2 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 16771.3 | 158.7 | 212.4 | 20.5 |
| 2013:Q3 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 17718.3 | 162.6 | 222.8 | 17.0 |
| 2013:Q4 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 19413.2 | 166.4 | 229.2 | 20.3 |
| 2014:Q1 | -2.1 | -0.8 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 19711.2 | 169.7 | 227.6 | 21.4 |
| 2014:Q2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 20568.7 | 170.8 | 233.0 | 17.0 |
| 2014:Q3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 20458.8 | 172.1 | 236.0 | 17.0 |
| 2014:Q4 | -3.9 | -2.8 | -3.0 | -0.1 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 17133.5 | 169.5 | 238.9 | 79.0 |
| 2015:Q1 | -6.1 | -4.7 | -4.4 | -2.3 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 12498.5 | 164.0 | 230.2 | 71.3 |
| 2015:Q2 | -3.9 | -2.4 | -3.4 | -2.2 | 8.8 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 10190.1 | 157.6 | 213.6 | 76.9 |
| 2015:Q3 | -3.2 | -1.7 | -2.4 | -1.4 | 9.5 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 8770.7 | 150.7 | 195.1 | 68.1 |
| 2015:Q4 | -1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | -0.7 | 9.9 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 8606.3 | 144.3 | 177.6 | 48.1 |
| 2016:Q1 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 10.0 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 9087.3 | 138.4 | 164.4 | 38.4 |
| 2016:Q2 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 10.1 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 9607.2 | 133.4 | 157.4 | 30.7 |
| 2016:Q3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 10480.7 | 130.4 | 154.4 | 25.5 |
| 2016:Q4 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 9.9 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 11521.4 | 128.4 | 154.6 | 21.6 |
| 2017:Q1 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 9.7 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 12894.7 | 127.9 | 156.1 | 18.7 |
| 2017:Q2 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 9.5 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 14079.2 | 128.4 | 159.6 | 17.6 |
| 2017:Q3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 9.3 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 15430.3 | 129.5 | 164.0 | 16.4 |
| 2017:Q4 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 9.1 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 16487.6 | 131.0 | 169.1 | 16.5 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on variables.
| Date | Euro area real GDP growth | Euro area inflation | Euro area bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/euro) | Developing Asia real GDP growth |
Developing Asia inflation |
Developing Asia bilateral dollar exchange rate (F/USD, index) |
Japan real GDP growth |
Japan inflation | Japan bilateral dollar exchange rate (yen/USD) | U.K. real GDP growth | U.K. inflation | U.K. bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/pound) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001:Q1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.879 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 106.0 | 2.6 | -1.2 | 125.5 | 4.6 | 0.1 | 1.419 |
| 2001:Q2 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 0.847 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 106.1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 124.7 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.408 |
| 2001:Q3 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 0.910 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 106.4 | -4.3 | -1.1 | 119.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.469 |
| 2001:Q4 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 0.890 | 7.7 | 0.1 | 106.8 | -0.5 | -1.4 | 131.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.454 |
| 2002:Q1 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 0.872 | 6.8 | 0.3 | 107.3 | -0.9 | -2.7 | 132.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.425 |
| 2002:Q2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.986 | 9.0 | 1.1 | 104.7 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 119.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 1.525 |
| 2002:Q3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.988 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 105.5 | 2.6 | -0.7 | 121.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 1.570 |
| 2002:Q4 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 1.049 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 104.4 | 1.5 | -0.4 | 118.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.610 |
| 2003:Q1 | -0.9 | 3.3 | 1.090 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 105.5 | -2.2 | -1.6 | 118.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 1.579 |
| 2003:Q2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.150 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 104.0 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 119.9 | 5.7 | 0.3 | 1.653 |
| 2003:Q3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.165 | 13.4 | 0.0 | 102.6 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 111.4 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 1.662 |
| 2003:Q4 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.260 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 103.3 | 4.2 | -0.6 | 107.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 1.784 |
| 2004:Q1 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.229 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 101.4 | 3.8 | -0.9 | 104.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.840 |
| 2004:Q2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.218 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 102.7 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 109.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.813 |
| 2004:Q3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.242 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 102.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 110.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.809 |
| 2004:Q4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.354 | 7.9 | 0.8 | 98.9 | -1.1 | 1.7 | 102.7 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.916 |
| 2005:Q1 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.297 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 98.6 | 0.8 | -2.7 | 107.2 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.889 |
| 2005:Q2 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.210 | 7.6 | 1.5 | 98.9 | 5.3 | -1.2 | 110.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.793 |
| 2005:Q3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.206 | 9.5 | 2.3 | 98.5 | 1.4 | -1.3 | 113.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.770 |
| 2005:Q4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.184 | 10.5 | 1.8 | 98.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 117.9 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 1.719 |
| 2006:Q1 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.214 | 12.2 | 2.3 | 96.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 117.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.739 |
| 2006:Q2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.278 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 96.6 | 1.7 | -0.1 | 114.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.849 |
| 2006:Q3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.269 | 8.8 | 2.1 | 96.2 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 118.0 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 1.872 |
| 2006:Q4 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 1.320 | 10.7 | 3.7 | 94.5 | 5.2 | -0.4 | 119.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.959 |
| 2007:Q1 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.337 | 14.8 | 3.6 | 93.9 | 4.1 | -0.2 | 117.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.969 |
| 2007:Q2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.352 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 91.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 123.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2.006 |
| 2007:Q3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.422 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 90.6 | -1.5 | 0.1 | 115.0 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 2.039 |
| 2007:Q4 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 1.460 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 89.4 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 111.7 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 1.984 |
| 2008:Q1 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 1.581 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 88.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 99.9 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 1.986 |
| 2008:Q2 | -1.6 | 3.2 | 1.575 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 88.6 | -4.7 | 1.6 | 106.2 | -0.9 | 5.6 | 1.991 |
| 2008:Q3 | -2.3 | 3.2 | 1.408 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 91.4 | -4.1 | 3.6 | 105.9 | -6.5 | 5.9 | 1.780 |
| 2008:Q4 | -7.1 | -1.4 | 1.392 | 0.7 | -0.9 | 92.2 | -12.5 | -2.2 | 90.8 | -8.6 | 0.6 | 1.462 |
| 2009:Q1 | -10.8 | -1.1 | 1.326 | 3.3 | -1.6 | 94.4 | -15.0 | -3.6 | 99.2 | -7.0 | -0.1 | 1.430 |
| 2009:Q2 | -1.1 | 0.0 | 1.402 | 15.4 | 2.3 | 92.3 | 7.1 | -1.7 | 96.4 | -1.0 | 2.0 | 1.645 |
| 2009:Q3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.463 | 12.5 | 4.0 | 91.3 | 0.2 | -1.2 | 89.5 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 1.600 |
| 2009:Q4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.433 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 90.7 | 7.1 | -1.6 | 93.1 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 1.617 |
| 2010:Q1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.353 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 89.8 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 93.4 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 1.519 |
| 2010:Q2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.229 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 91.0 | 4.4 | -1.0 | 88.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.495 |
| 2010:Q3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.360 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 88.4 | 5.8 | -1.9 | 83.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.573 |
| 2010:Q4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.327 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 87.4 | -2.2 | 1.1 | 81.7 | 0.1 | 4.0 | 1.539 |
| 2011:Q1 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.418 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 86.4 | -6.9 | -0.4 | 82.8 | 2.2 | 6.6 | 1.605 |
| 2011:Q2 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 1.452 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 85.3 | -2.7 | -0.4 | 80.6 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 1.607 |
| 2011:Q3 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.345 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 87.4 | 10.8 | 0.4 | 77.0 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 1.562 |
| 2011:Q4 | -1.1 | 3.4 | 1.297 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 87.2 | 0.6 | -0.8 | 77.0 | -0.1 | 3.3 | 1.554 |
| 2012:Q1 | -0.4 | 2.6 | 1.333 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 86.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 82.4 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 1.599 |
| 2012:Q2 | -1.0 | 2.4 | 1.267 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 88.0 | -2.2 | -0.7 | 79.8 | -0.7 | 1.9 | 1.569 |
| 2012:Q3 | -0.4 | 1.8 | 1.286 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 86.2 | -2.7 | -1.7 | 77.9 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.613 |
| 2012:Q4 | -1.9 | 2.3 | 1.319 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 85.9 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 86.6 | -1.3 | 3.9 | 1.626 |
| 2013:Q1 | -1.3 | 0.8 | 1.282 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 86.2 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 94.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.519 |
| 2013:Q2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.301 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 87.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 99.2 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.521 |
| 2013:Q3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.354 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 86.5 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 98.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.618 |
| 2013:Q4 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.378 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 85.6 | -0.5 | 1.9 | 105.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.657 |
| 2014:Q1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.378 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 86.7 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 103.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.668 |
| 2014:Q2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.369 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 86.4 | -7.1 | 9.4 | 101.3 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.711 |
| 2014:Q3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.263 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 86.9 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 109.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.622 |
| 2014:Q4 | -8.8 | 3.8 | 1.112 | -3.2 | 11.9 | 98.0 | -9.4 | 0.3 | 101.4 | -4.0 | 1.5 | 1.572 |
| 2015:Q1 | -6.5 | 0.7 | 1.110 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 97.7 | -10.6 | -2.0 | 101.2 | -4.2 | -0.4 | 1.575 |
| 2015:Q2 | -3.6 | -0.7 | 1.103 | 4.1 | 0.1 | 97.5 | -8.5 | -3.3 | 101.7 | -3.2 | -1.3 | 1.571 |
| 2015:Q3 | -1.5 | -1.1 | 1.094 | 5.8 | -1.1 | 97.2 | -6.4 | -3.3 | 102.6 | -2.0 | -1.3 | 1.564 |
| 2015:Q4 | -0.1 | -1.1 | 1.084 | 6.6 | -1.2 | 96.7 | -4.4 | -2.7 | 103.4 | -0.8 | -0.9 | 1.558 |
| 2016:Q1 | 1.0 | -0.3 | 1.088 | 6.8 | 0.4 | 94.7 | -2.5 | -1.5 | 103.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.559 |
| 2016:Q2 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 1.095 | 6.6 | 1.3 | 92.6 | -1.0 | -0.7 | 103.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.560 |
| 2016:Q3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 1.105 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 90.7 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 102.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.559 |
| 2016:Q4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 1.114 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 89.2 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 102.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.555 |
| 2017:Q1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 1.125 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 88.4 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 103.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 1.552 |
| 2017:Q2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 1.135 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 87.9 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 103.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 1.552 |
| 2017:Q3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.143 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 87.5 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 103.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 1.552 |
| 2017:Q4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.152 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 87.2 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 102.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 1.552 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on variables.
| Level | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Real GDP growth | Nominal GDP growth | Real dispo- sable income growth |
Nominal dispo- sable income growth |
Un- employ- ment rate |
CPI inflation rate |
3-month Treasury rate |
5-year Treasury yield | 10-year Treasury yield | BBB corporate yield | Mortgage rate |
Prime rate |
Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index | House Price Index | Com- mercial Real Estate Price Index |
Market Volatility Index |
| 2001:Q1 | -1.1 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 10645.9 | 113.2 | 139.5 | 32.8 |
| 2001:Q2 | 2.1 | 5.1 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 11407.2 | 115.2 | 138.6 | 34.7 |
| 2001:Q3 | -1.3 | 0.0 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 9563.0 | 117.5 | 141.0 | 43.7 |
| 2001:Q4 | 1.1 | 2.3 | -4.9 | -4.6 | 5.5 | -0.3 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 10707.7 | 119.8 | 135.6 | 35.3 |
| 2002:Q1 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 10775.7 | 122.1 | 137.4 | 26.1 |
| 2002:Q2 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 9384.0 | 125.4 | 135.8 | 28.4 |
| 2002:Q3 | 2.0 | 3.8 | -0.5 | 1.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 7773.6 | 128.7 | 138.7 | 45.1 |
| 2002:Q4 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 8343.2 | 131.3 | 142.5 | 42.6 |
| 2003:Q1 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 8051.9 | 134.1 | 147.9 | 34.7 |
| 2003:Q2 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 6.1 | -0.7 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 9342.4 | 137.0 | 149.2 | 29.1 |
| 2003:Q3 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 9649.7 | 141.1 | 147.3 | 22.7 |
| 2003:Q4 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 10799.6 | 146.0 | 145.7 | 21.1 |
| 2004:Q1 | 2.3 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 11039.4 | 151.8 | 152.9 | 21.6 |
| 2004:Q2 | 3.0 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 11144.6 | 158.0 | 160.4 | 20.0 |
| 2004:Q3 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 10893.8 | 163.4 | 171.8 | 19.3 |
| 2004:Q4 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 11951.5 | 169.4 | 175.8 | 16.6 |
| 2005:Q1 | 4.3 | 8.3 | -3.8 | -1.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 11637.3 | 177.6 | 175.8 | 14.6 |
| 2005:Q2 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 11856.7 | 185.0 | 182.3 | 17.7 |
| 2005:Q3 | 3.4 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 12282.9 | 190.8 | 187.1 | 14.2 |
| 2005:Q4 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 12497.2 | 195.5 | 195.4 | 16.5 |
| 2006:Q1 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 13121.6 | 198.7 | 200.0 | 14.6 |
| 2006:Q2 | 1.2 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 12808.9 | 197.8 | 209.0 | 23.8 |
| 2006:Q3 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 13322.5 | 196.5 | 218.6 | 18.6 |
| 2006:Q4 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | -1.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 14215.8 | 196.5 | 217.3 | 12.7 |
| 2007:Q1 | 0.2 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 14354.0 | 194.0 | 227.1 | 19.6 |
| 2007:Q2 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 15163.1 | 189.1 | 236.4 | 18.9 |
| 2007:Q3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 15317.8 | 183.6 | 249.1 | 30.8 |
| 2007:Q4 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 14753.6 | 178.1 | 251.5 | 31.1 |
| 2008:Q1 | -2.7 | -0.5 | 2.9 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 13284.1 | 171.2 | 239.9 | 32.2 |
| 2008:Q2 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.7 | 13.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 13016.4 | 163.9 | 223.9 | 24.1 |
| 2008:Q3 | -1.9 | 0.8 | -8.9 | -5.1 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 11826.0 | 157.3 | 233.4 | 46.7 |
| 2008:Q4 | -8.2 | -7.7 | 2.6 | -3.2 | 6.9 | -8.9 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 9056.7 | 149.2 | 222.5 | 80.9 |
| 2009:Q1 | -5.4 | -4.5 | -0.8 | -3.0 | 8.3 | -2.7 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 8044.2 | 143.1 | 208.9 | 56.7 |
| 2009:Q2 | -0.5 | -1.2 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 9342.8 | 142.9 | 178.5 | 42.3 |
| 2009:Q3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | -4.3 | -1.9 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 10812.8 | 144.1 | 154.0 | 31.3 |
| 2009:Q4 | 3.9 | 5.2 | -0.5 | 2.2 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 11385.1 | 145.0 | 155.2 | 30.7 |
| 2010:Q1 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 9.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 12032.5 | 145.5 | 149.8 | 27.3 |
| 2010:Q2 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 10645.8 | 144.4 | 164.5 | 45.8 |
| 2010:Q3 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 9.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 11814.0 | 141.3 | 166.9 | 32.9 |
| 2010:Q4 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 13131.5 | 140.0 | 172.7 | 23.5 |
| 2011:Q1 | -1.5 | 0.2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 13908.5 | 138.1 | 179.6 | 29.4 |
| 2011:Q2 | 2.9 | 6.0 | -0.6 | 3.5 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 13843.5 | 137.3 | 177.0 | 22.7 |
| 2011:Q3 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 9.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 11676.5 | 137.3 | 177.0 | 48.0 |
| 2011:Q4 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 8.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 13019.3 | 137.1 | 188.4 | 45.5 |
| 2012:Q1 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 14627.5 | 139.3 | 188.2 | 23.0 |
| 2012:Q2 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 8.2 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 14100.2 | 142.5 | 189.4 | 26.7 |
| 2012:Q3 | 2.5 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 8.0 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 14894.7 | 145.4 | 196.6 | 20.5 |
| 2012:Q4 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 11.8 | 13.8 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 14834.9 | 148.9 | 198.3 | 22.7 |
| 2013:Q1 | 2.7 | 4.2 | -12.6 | -11.7 | 7.7 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 16396.2 | 153.8 | 203.2 | 19.0 |
| 2013:Q2 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 16771.3 | 158.7 | 212.4 | 20.5 |
| 2013:Q3 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 17718.3 | 162.6 | 222.8 | 17.0 |
| 2013:Q4 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 19413.2 | 166.4 | 229.2 | 20.3 |
| 2014:Q1 | -2.1 | -0.8 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 19711.2 | 169.7 | 227.6 | 21.4 |
| 2014:Q2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 20568.7 | 170.8 | 233.0 | 17.0 |
| 2014:Q3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 20458.8 | 172.1 | 236.0 | 17.0 |
| 2014:Q4 | -0.6 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 19418.4 | 170.8 | 238.9 | 28.9 |
| 2015:Q1 | -1.3 | 0.9 | -0.4 | 2.2 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 18508.7 | 168.0 | 235.3 | 32.9 |
| 2015:Q2 | -0.2 | 2.8 | -0.3 | 2.7 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 17689.2 | 164.8 | 228.1 | 33.2 |
| 2015:Q3 | 0.2 | 3.8 | -0.1 | 3.5 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 16983.8 | 161.2 | 220.8 | 27.3 |
| 2015:Q4 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 16257.8 | 157.7 | 214.8 | 24.9 |
| 2016:Q1 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 15737.3 | 154.5 | 207.7 | 24.6 |
| 2016:Q2 | 1.2 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 15430.8 | 151.7 | 202.9 | 22.8 |
| 2016:Q3 | 1.7 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 15188.2 | 150.0 | 199.6 | 21.4 |
| 2016:Q4 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 14992.3 | 148.9 | 197.7 | 20.5 |
| 2017:Q1 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 14866.4 | 148.6 | 196.6 | 19.8 |
| 2017:Q2 | 1.9 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 14791.4 | 148.9 | 196.5 | 19.4 |
| 2017:Q3 | 2.0 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 14807.1 | 149.5 | 196.6 | 19.1 |
| 2017:Q4 | 2.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 15005.9 | 150.3 | 197.1 | 19.2 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on variables.
| Date | Euro area real GDP growth | Euro area inflation | Euro area bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/euro) |
Developing Asia real GDP growth |
Developing Asia inflation |
Developing Asia bilateral dollar exchange rate (F/USD, index) |
Japan real GDP growth |
Japan inflation | Japan bilateral dollar exchange rate (yen/USD) | U.K. real GDP growth |
U.K. inflation |
U.K. bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/pound) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001:Q1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.879 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 106.0 | 2.6 | -1.2 | 125.5 | 4.6 | 0.1 | 1.419 |
| 2001:Q2 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 0.847 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 106.1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 124.7 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.408 |
| 2001:Q3 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 0.910 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 106.4 | -4.3 | -1.1 | 119.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.469 |
| 2001:Q4 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 0.890 | 7.7 | 0.1 | 106.8 | -0.5 | -1.4 | 131.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.454 |
| 2002:Q1 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 0.872 | 6.8 | 0.3 | 107.3 | -0.9 | -2.7 | 132.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.425 |
| 2002:Q2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.986 | 9.0 | 1.1 | 104.7 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 119.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 1.525 |
| 2002:Q3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.988 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 105.5 | 2.6 | -0.7 | 121.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 1.570 |
| 2002:Q4 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 1.049 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 104.4 | 1.5 | -0.4 | 118.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.610 |
| 2003:Q1 | -0.9 | 3.3 | 1.090 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 105.5 | -2.2 | -1.6 | 118.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 1.579 |
| 2003:Q2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.150 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 104.0 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 119.9 | 5.7 | 0.3 | 1.653 |
| 2003:Q3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.165 | 13.4 | 0.0 | 102.6 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 111.4 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 1.662 |
| 2003:Q4 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.260 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 103.3 | 4.2 | -0.6 | 107.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 1.784 |
| 2004:Q1 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.229 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 101.4 | 3.8 | -0.9 | 104.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.840 |
| 2004:Q2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.218 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 102.7 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 109.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.813 |
| 2004:Q3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.242 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 102.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 110.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.809 |
| 2004:Q4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.354 | 7.9 | 0.8 | 98.9 | -1.1 | 1.7 | 102.7 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.916 |
| 2005:Q1 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.297 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 98.6 | 0.8 | -2.7 | 107.2 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.889 |
| 2005:Q2 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.210 | 7.6 | 1.5 | 98.9 | 5.3 | -1.2 | 110.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.793 |
| 2005:Q3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.206 | 9.5 | 2.3 | 98.5 | 1.4 | -1.3 | 113.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.770 |
| 2005:Q4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.184 | 10.5 | 1.8 | 98.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 117.9 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 1.719 |
| 2006:Q1 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.214 | 12.2 | 2.3 | 96.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 117.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.739 |
| 2006:Q2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.278 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 96.6 | 1.7 | -0.1 | 114.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.849 |
| 2006:Q3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.269 | 8.8 | 2.1 | 96.2 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 118.0 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 1.872 |
| 2006:Q4 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 1.320 | 10.7 | 3.7 | 94.5 | 5.2 | -0.4 | 119.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.959 |
| 2007:Q1 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.337 | 14.8 | 3.6 | 93.9 | 4.1 | -0.2 | 117.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.969 |
| 2007:Q2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.352 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 91.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 123.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2.006 |
| 2007:Q3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.422 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 90.6 | -1.5 | 0.1 | 115.0 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 2.039 |
| 2007:Q4 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 1.460 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 89.4 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 111.7 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 1.984 |
| 2008:Q1 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 1.581 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 88.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 99.9 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 1.986 |
| 2008:Q2 | -1.6 | 3.2 | 1.575 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 88.6 | -4.7 | 1.6 | 106.2 | -0.9 | 5.6 | 1.991 |
| 2008:Q3 | -2.3 | 3.2 | 1.408 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 91.4 | -4.1 | 3.6 | 105.9 | -6.5 | 5.9 | 1.780 |
| 2008:Q4 | -7.1 | -1.4 | 1.392 | 0.7 | -0.9 | 92.2 | -12.5 | -2.2 | 90.8 | -8.6 | 0.6 | 1.462 |
| 2009:Q1 | -10.8 | -1.1 | 1.326 | 3.3 | -1.6 | 94.4 | -15.0 | -3.6 | 99.2 | -7.0 | -0.1 | 1.430 |
| 2009:Q2 | -1.1 | 0.0 | 1.402 | 15.4 | 2.3 | 92.3 | 7.1 | -1.7 | 96.4 | -1.0 | 2.0 | 1.645 |
| 2009:Q3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.463 | 12.5 | 4.0 | 91.3 | 0.2 | -1.2 | 89.5 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 1.600 |
| 2009:Q4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.433 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 90.7 | 7.1 | -1.6 | 93.1 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 1.617 |
| 2010:Q1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.353 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 89.8 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 93.4 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 1.519 |
| 2010:Q2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.229 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 91.0 | 4.4 | -1.0 | 88.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.495 |
| 2010:Q3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.360 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 88.4 | 5.8 | -1.9 | 83.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.573 |
| 2010:Q4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.327 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 87.4 | -2.2 | 1.1 | 81.7 | 0.1 | 4.0 | 1.539 |
| 2011:Q1 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.418 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 86.4 | -6.9 | -0.4 | 82.8 | 2.2 | 6.6 | 1.605 |
| 2011:Q2 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 1.452 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 85.3 | -2.7 | -0.4 | 80.6 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 1.607 |
| 2011:Q3 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.345 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 87.4 | 10.8 | 0.4 | 77.0 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 1.562 |
| 2011:Q4 | -1.1 | 3.4 | 1.297 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 87.2 | 0.6 | -0.8 | 77.0 | -0.1 | 3.3 | 1.554 |
| 2012:Q1 | -0.4 | 2.6 | 1.333 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 86.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 82.4 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 1.599 |
| 2012:Q2 | -1.0 | 2.4 | 1.267 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 88.0 | -2.2 | -0.7 | 79.8 | -0.7 | 1.9 | 1.569 |
| 2012:Q3 | -0.4 | 1.8 | 1.286 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 86.2 | -2.7 | -1.7 | 77.9 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.613 |
| 2012:Q4 | -1.9 | 2.3 | 1.319 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 85.9 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 86.6 | -1.3 | 3.9 | 1.626 |
| 2013:Q1 | -1.3 | 0.8 | 1.282 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 86.2 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 94.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.519 |
| 2013:Q2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.301 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 87.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 99.2 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.521 |
| 2013:Q3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.354 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 86.5 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 98.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.618 |
| 2013:Q4 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.378 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 85.6 | -0.5 | 1.9 | 105.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.657 |
| 2014:Q1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.378 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 86.7 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 103.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.668 |
| 2014:Q2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.369 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 86.4 | -7.1 | 9.4 | 101.3 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.711 |
| 2014:Q3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.263 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 86.9 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 109.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.622 |
| 2014:Q4 | -4.1 | -0.4 | 1.265 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 89.3 | -4.6 | -1.6 | 97.6 | -1.6 | 0.1 | 1.680 |
| 2015:Q1 | -3.3 | -0.4 | 1.257 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 89.3 | -6.0 | -1.4 | 97.7 | -1.7 | 0.1 | 1.676 |
| 2015:Q2 | -1.7 | -0.4 | 1.243 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 89.0 | -5.0 | -1.6 | 98.4 | -0.9 | 0.1 | 1.668 |
| 2015:Q3 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 1.226 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 88.7 | -3.7 | -1.2 | 99.5 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 1.656 |
| 2015:Q4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.210 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 88.2 | -2.5 | -0.7 | 100.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.645 |
| 2016:Q1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 1.209 | 6.5 | 1.6 | 86.8 | -1.4 | -0.2 | 100.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.641 |
| 2016:Q2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 1.212 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 85.5 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 100.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.638 |
| 2016:Q3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.217 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 84.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 100.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.636 |
| 2016:Q4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.222 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 82.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 100.2 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.633 |
| 2017:Q1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.229 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 82.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 99.9 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.634 |
| 2017:Q2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.236 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 81.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 99.6 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 1.634 |
| 2017:Q3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.242 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 81.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 99.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.634 |
| 2017:Q4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.248 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 81.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 99.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.635 |
Note: Refer to Notes Regarding Scenario Variables for more information on variables.
Data Notes
Sources for data through the third quarter of 2014 (as released through October 22, 2014). The third-quarter-2014 values of variables marked with an asterisk (*) are projected.
* U.S. real GDP growth: Percent change in real gross domestic product at an annualized rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
* U.S. nominal GDP growth: Percent change in nominal gross domestic product at an annualized rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
* U.S. real disposable income growth: Percent change in nominal disposable personal income divided by the price index for personal consumption expenditures at an annualized rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
* U.S. nominal disposable income growth: Percent change in nominal disposable personal income at an annualized rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
U.S. unemployment rate: Quarterly average of monthly data, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
U.S. CPI inflation: Percent change in the Consumer Price Index at an annualized rate, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
U.S. 3-month Treasury rate: Quarterly average of 3-month Treasury bill secondary market rate on a discount basis, H.15 Release, Selected Interest Rates, Federal Reserve Board.
U.S. 5-year Treasury yield: Quarterly average of the yield on 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds, constructed for FRB/US model by Federal Reserve staff based on the Svensson smoothed term structure model; see Lars E. O. Svensson (1995), "Estimating Forward Interest Rates with the Extended Nelson-Siegel Method," Quarterly Review, no. 3, Sveriges Riksbank, pp. 13-26.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: Quarterly average of the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, constructed for FRB/US model by Federal Reserve staff based on the Svensson smoothed term structure model; see id.
U.S. BBB corporate yield: Quarterly average of the yield on 10-year BBB-rated corporate bonds, constructed for FRB/US model by Federal Reserve staff using a Nelson-Siegel smoothed yield curve model; see Charles R. Nelson and Andrew F. Siegel (1987), "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," Journal of Business, vol. 60, pp. 473-89. Data prior to 1997 is based on the WARGA database. Data after 1997 is based on the Merrill Lynch database.
U.S. mortgage rate: Quarterly average of weekly series for the interest rate of a conventional, conforming, 30-year fixed rate mortgage, obtained from the Primary Mortgage Market Survey of the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation.
U.S. prime rate: Quarterly average of monthly series, H.15 Release, Selected Interest Rates, Federal Reserve Board.
U.S. Dow Jones Total Stock Market (Float Cap) Index: End of quarter value, Dow Jones.
* U.S. House Price Index: CoreLogic, index level, seasonally adjusted by Federal Reserve staff.
* U.S. Commercial Real Estate Price Index: From the Financial Accounts of the United States, Federal Reserve Board (Z.1 release); the series corresponds to the data for price indexes: Commercial Real Estate Price Index (series FL075035503.Q divided by 1,000).
U.S. Market Volatility Index (VIX): Chicago Board Options Exchange, converted to quarterly by using the maximum close-of-day value in any quarter.
* Euro area real GDP growth: Staff calculations based on Statistical Office of the European Communities via Haver, extended back using ECB Area Wide Model dataset (ECB Working Paper series no. 42).
Euro area inflation: Staff calculations based on Statistical Office of the European Community via Haver.
* Developing Asia real GDP growth: Staff calculations based on Bank of Korea via Haver; Chinese National Bureau of Statistics via CEIC; Indian Central Statistical Organization via CEIC; Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong via CEIC; and Taiwan Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics via CEIC.
* Developing Asia inflation: Staff calculations based on Chinese National Bureau of Statistics via CEIC; Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation via Haver; Labour Bureau of India via CEIC; National Statistical Office of Korea via CEIC; Census and Statistic Department of Hong Kong via CEIC; and Taiwan Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics via CEIC.
* Japan real GDP growth: Cabinet Office via Haver.
Japan inflation: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications via Haver.
U.K. real GDP growth: Office for National Statistics via Haver.
U.K. inflation: Staff calculations based on Office for National Statistics (uses Retail Price Index to extend series back to 1960) via Haver.
* Exchange rates: Bloomberg.
Last update: March 31, 2015
