International Finance Discussion Papers (IFDP)
November 2016
Economic Forecasting in Theory and Practice: An Interview with David F. Hendry
Abstract:
David Hendry has made major contributions to many areas of economic forecasting. He has developed a taxonomy of forecast errors and a theory of unpredictability that have yielded valuable insights into the nature of forecasting. He has also provided new perspectives on many existing forecast techniques, including mean square forecast errors, add factors, leading indicators, pooling of forecasts, and multi-step estimation. In addition, David has developed new forecast tools, such as forecast encompassing; and he has improved existing ones, such as nowcasting and robustification to breaks. This interview for the International Journal of Forecasting explores David Hendry's research on forecasting.
Keywords: Encompassing, equilibrium correction models, error correction, evaluation, exogeneity, forecasting, modeling, nowcasting, parameter constancy, robustification, structural breaks.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2016.1184
PDF: Full Paper