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Did the U.S. Bilateral Goods Deficit With China Increase or Decrease During the US-China Trade Conflict? Accessible Data

Figure 1: Reported U.S.-China Bilateral Goods Trade Deficit

Billions USD

Year China Reported US Reported
2010 -181.31 -273.042
2011 -202.42 -295.250
2012 -219.12 -315.103
2013 -215.93 -318.684
2014 -236.96 -344.818
2015 -260.36 -367.328
2016 -253.99 -346.825
2017 -277.97 -375.168
2018 -324.45 -418.954
2019 -295.60 -345.204
2020 -317.06 -310.801

Note: “China Reported” = Chinese exports from the United States- Chinese imports to the United States; “U.S. Reported” = U.S. imports from China – U.S. exports to China

Source: China Customs and U.S. Census

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Figure 2: Reported Data Discrepancy in U.S.-China Bilateral Trade

Billions USD

Date (year, month) China Reported Exports to U.S U.S. Reported Imports from China
2010m1 222.34 296.85
2010m2 226.96 301.34
2010m3 229.83 304.41
2010m4 233.12 308.41
2010m5 240.52 314.73
2010m6 248.30 323.60
2010m7 255.38 331.20
2010m8 263.30 340.77
2010m9 269.12 348.08
2010m1 272.93 353.60
2010m11 279.38 360.62
2010m12 283.37 364.95
2011m1 289.86 371.11
2011m2 289.26 375.02
2011m3 295.03 378.32
2011m4 300.14 381.98
2011m5 301.87 385.72
2011m6 304.36 387.25
2011m7 306.97 389.14
2011m8 310.33 391.14
2011m9 313.46 392.36
2011m1 316.95 395.10
2011m11 321.44 397.30
2011m12 324.56 399.37
2012m1 325.95 402.41
2012m2 329.52 403.27
2012m3 333.04 407.10
2012m4 335.60 410.54
2012m5 341.54 412.69
2012m6 344.50 414.26
2012m7 344.67 417.04
2012m8 345.56 416.95
2012m9 347.22 418.42
2012m1 349.79 420.86
2012m11 348.97 423.63
2012m12 352.00 425.62
2013m1 355.86 428.40
2013m2 358.90 433.03
2013m3 357.03 428.90
2013m4 357.01 429.01
2013m5 356.50 430.69
2013m6 354.84 430.63
2013m7 356.42 431.50
2013m8 358.30 433.38
2013m9 359.65 435.63
2013m1 362.17 437.22
2013m11 367.50 437.79
2013m12 368.48 440.43
2014m1 371.73 441.61
2014m2 369.19 439.57
2014m3 369.53 443.70
2014m4 372.91 447.02
2014m5 374.88 448.59
2014m6 377.08 452.31
2014m7 380.98 453.83
2014m8 384.72 454.76
2014m9 388.28 459.72
2014m1 391.94 463.21
2014m11 392.85 465.58
2014m12 396.15 468.47
2015m1 397.75 468.69
2015m2 407.38 469.55
2015m3 405.21 479.27
2015m4 406.18 478.94
2015m5 408.77 479.83
2015m6 412.55 481.68
2015m7 412.07 482.57
2015m8 411.71 486.62
2015m9 414.19 487.24
2015m1 413.84 486.22
2015m11 411.53 485.62
2015m12 410.15 483.20
2016m1 406.65 481.74
2016m2 399.84 486.24
2016m3 402.08 474.92
2016m4 399.06 471.72
2016m5 394.77 470.15
2016m6 391.07 467.23
2016m7 390.22 465.46
2016m8 390.13 464.54
2016m9 386.98 460.84
2016m1 384.83 460.32
2016m11 387.30 461.04
2016m12 389.11 462.42
2017m1 391.12 466.63
2017m2 390.17 463.35
2017m3 395.52 467.70
2017m4 398.97 472.22
2017m5 402.67 476.46
2017m6 408.93 480.18
2017m7 411.99 484.30
2017m8 415.04 486.86
2017m9 419.99 490.25
2017m1 422.88 494.58
2017m11 428.44 500.08
2017m12 433.15 505.17
2018m1 436.90 509.58
2018m2 446.92 515.80
2018m3 445.09 519.93
2018m4 448.25 520.76
2018m5 452.34 522.94
2018m6 457.07 525.25
2018m7 461.27 528.78
2018m8 466.46 530.82
2018m9 472.21 535.40
2018m1 477.17 539.44
2018m11 481.29 537.78
2018m12 479.81 539.24
2019m1 478.77 535.01
2019m2 469.71 529.16
2019m3 470.84 522.04
2019m4 466.12 518.45
2019m5 464.50 513.69
2019m6 461.19 508.08
2019m7 458.51 502.45
2019m8 451.43 495.78
2019m9 441.21 485.96
2019m1 434.28 473.90
2019m11 423.65 463.89
2019m12 417.94 451.65
2020m1 412.33 443.42
2020m2 401.70 433.08
2020m3 395.09 421.71
2020m4 395.79 418.09
2020m5 395.32 415.52
2020m6 395.87 414.19
2020m7 400.75 413.40
2020m8 408.21 413.06
2020m9 415.70 414.11
2020m1 423.74 418.82
2020m11 440.14 427.24
2020m12 452.07 435.45

Source: China Customs, U.S. Census

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Figure 3: U.S. Tariffs on Chinese Imports vs. Chinese Net VAT Tax Rate on Exports

p.p.

Date (year,month) U.S. Tariffs on Chinese Imports China Net VAT Tax Rate
2017m1 3.35 6.71
2017m2 3.35 6.71
2017m3 3.35 6.71
2017m4 3.35 6.71
2017m5 3.35 6.71
2017m6 3.35 6.71
2017m7 3.35 6.71
2017m8 3.35 6.71
2017m9 3.35 6.71
2017m10 3.35 6.71
2017m11 3.35 6.71
2017m12 3.35 6.71
2018m1 3.33 6.71
2018m2 3.33 6.71
2018m3 3.33 6.71
2018m4 3.33 6.71
2018m5 3.33 5.80
2018m6 3.33 5.80
2018m7 6.55 5.80
2018m8 7.46 5.80
2018m9 12.26 5.44
2018m10 12.26 5.44
2018m11 12.26 4.34
2018m12 9.45 4.34
2019m1 9.43 4.34
2019m2 9.43 4.34
2019m3 9.43 4.34
2019m4 9.43 3.04
2019m5 14.70 3.04
2019m6 14.70 3.04
2019m7 14.70 3.04
2019m8 14.70 3.04
2019m9 19.44 3.04
2019m10 19.44 3.04
2019m11 19.44 3.04
2019m12 19.44 3.04
2020m1 19.44 3.04
2020m2 17.07 3.04
2020m3 17.07 2.49
2020m4 17.07 2.49
2020m5 17.07 2.49
2020m6 17.07 2.49
2020m7 17.07 2.49
2020m8 17.07 2.49
2020m9 17.07 2.49
2020m10 17.07 2.49
2020m11 17.07 2.49
2020m12 17.07 2.49

Source: China’s State Administration of Taxation, USITC.

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Figure 4: China’s and U.S. Reported Trade Data Gap with Other Trade Partners

Billions USD

Year China Reported U.S. Reported
Gap with U.S. Gap with World ex-U.S. Gap with China Gap with World ex-China
2010 99304.05 131351.75 99304.05 43764.75
2011 74514.76 88404.56 74514.76 20789.36
2012 73079.49 28958.46 73079.49 49317.19
2013 71427.62 -64949.83 71427.62 34012.43
2014 69655.14 -66967.25 69655.14 17409.54
2015 71097.90 -44688.99 71097.90 40935.28
2016 73098.54 32106.59 73098.54 31959.43
2017 71852.19 78483.49 71852.19 25783.17
2018 58814.76 73071.67 58814.76 19268.02
2019 33659.18 17992.20 33659.18 34522.83
2020 -17383.19 -78590.84 -17383.19 45602.25

Note: “Trade data gap” refers to U.S.-reported imports from China minus China’s reported exports to the United States. In this figure, both China’s “Gap with U.S.” and the United States’ “Gap with China” are defined as U.S. reported imports from China minus China reported exports to the United States; China’s trade data gap with world ex-US is defined as world ex-U.S. reported imports from China minus China reported exports to world ex-U.S.; U.S. trade data gap with world ex-China is defined as U.S. reported imports from world ex-China minus world ex-China’s reported exports to the United States.

Source: IMF Direction of Trade.

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Figure 5: Explaining the change in U.S.-China Reported Trade Data Gap

Billions USD

2017 95.44
2020 7.51
Chg in gap -87.93
 U.S. tariffs evasion -55.32
 China VAT tax misreporting -12.44
 Other -20.17

Source: Authors' calculations

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Figure 6: US-China Bilateral Trade Adjusted for Misreporting

Billions USD

Date (Year, month) Adjusted U.S. Imports from China Adjusted Chinese Exports to U.S.
Reported Adjusted Values Reported Adjusted Values
2010m1 296.85 296.85 222.34 222.34
2010m2 301.34 301.34 226.96 226.96
2010m3 304.41 304.41 229.83 229.83
2010m4 308.41 308.41 233.12 233.12
2010m5 314.73 314.73 240.52 240.52
2010m6 323.60 323.60 248.30 248.30
2010m7 331.20 331.20 255.38 255.38
2010m8 340.77 340.77 263.30 263.30
2010m9 348.08 348.08 269.12 269.12
2010m1 353.60 353.60 272.93 272.93
2010m11 360.62 360.62 279.38 279.38
2010m12 364.95 364.95 283.37 283.37
2011m1 371.11 371.11 289.86 289.86
2011m2 375.02 375.02 289.26 289.26
2011m3 378.32 378.32 295.03 295.03
2011m4 381.98 381.98 300.14 300.14
2011m5 385.72 385.72 301.87 301.87
2011m6 387.25 387.25 304.36 304.36
2011m7 389.14 389.14 306.97 306.97
2011m8 391.14 391.14 310.33 310.33
2011m9 392.36 392.36 313.46 313.46
2011m1 395.10 395.10 316.95 316.95
2011m11 397.30 397.30 321.44 321.44
2011m12 399.37 399.37 324.56 324.56
2012m1 402.41 402.41 325.95 325.95
2012m2 403.27 403.27 329.52 329.52
2012m3 407.10 407.10 333.04 333.04
2012m4 410.54 410.54 335.60 335.60
2012m5 412.69 412.69 341.54 341.54
2012m6 414.26 414.26 344.50 344.50
2012m7 417.04 417.04 344.67 344.67
2012m8 416.95 416.95 345.56 345.56
2012m9 418.42 418.42 347.22 347.22
2012m1 420.86 420.86 349.79 349.79
2012m11 423.63 423.63 348.97 348.97
2012m12 425.62 425.62 352.00 352.00
2013m1 428.40 428.40 355.86 355.86
2013m2 433.03 433.03 358.90 358.90
2013m3 428.90 428.90 357.03 357.03
2013m4 429.01 429.01 357.01 357.01
2013m5 430.69 430.69 356.50 356.50
2013m6 430.63 430.63 354.84 354.84
2013m7 431.50 431.50 356.42 356.42
2013m8 433.38 433.38 358.30 358.30
2013m9 435.63 435.63 359.65 359.65
2013m1 437.22 437.22 362.17 362.17
2013m11 437.79 437.79 367.50 367.50
2013m12 440.43 440.43 368.48 368.48
2014m1 441.61 441.61 371.73 371.73
2014m2 439.57 439.57 369.19 369.19
2014m3 443.70 443.70 369.53 369.53
2014m4 447.02 447.02 372.91 372.91
2014m5 448.59 448.59 374.88 374.88
2014m6 452.31 452.31 377.08 377.08
2014m7 453.83 453.83 380.98 380.98
2014m8 454.76 454.76 384.72 384.72
2014m9 459.72 459.72 388.28 388.28
2014m1 463.21 463.21 391.94 391.94
2014m11 465.58 465.58 392.85 392.85
2014m12 468.47 468.47 396.15 396.15
2015m1 468.69 468.69 397.75 397.75
2015m2 469.55 469.55 407.38 407.38
2015m3 479.27 479.27 405.21 405.21
2015m4 478.94 478.94 406.18 406.18
2015m5 479.83 479.83 408.77 408.77
2015m6 481.68 481.68 412.55 412.55
2015m7 482.57 482.57 412.07 412.07
2015m8 486.62 486.62 411.71 411.71
2015m9 487.24 487.24 414.19 414.19
2015m1 486.22 486.22 413.84 413.84
2015m11 485.62 485.62 411.53 411.53
2015m12 483.20 483.20 410.15 410.15
2016m1 481.74 481.74 406.65 406.65
2016m2 486.24 486.24 399.84 399.84
2016m3 474.92 474.92 402.08 402.08
2016m4 471.72 471.72 399.06 399.06
2016m5 470.15 470.15 394.77 394.77
2016m6 467.23 467.23 391.07 391.07
2016m7 465.46 465.46 390.22 390.22
2016m8 464.54 464.54 390.13 390.13
2016m9 460.84 460.84 386.98 386.98
2016m1 460.32 460.32 384.83 384.83
2016m11 461.04 461.04 387.30 387.30
2016m12 462.42 462.42 389.11 389.11
2017m1 466.63 466.63 391.12 391.12
2017m2 463.35 463.35 390.17 390.17
2017m3 467.70 467.70 395.52 395.52
2017m4 472.22 472.22 398.97 398.97
2017m5 476.46 476.46 402.67 402.67
2017m6 480.18 480.18 408.93 408.93
2017m7 484.30 484.30 411.99 411.99
2017m8 486.86 486.86 415.04 415.04
2017m9 490.25 490.25 419.99 419.99
2017m1 494.58 494.58 422.88 422.88
2017m11 500.08 500.08 428.44 428.44
2017m12 505.17 505.17 433.15 433.15
2018m1 509.58 509.58 436.90 436.90
2018m2 515.80 515.80 446.92 446.92
2018m3 519.93 519.93 445.09 445.09
2018m4 520.76 520.76 448.25 448.25
2018m5 522.94 522.94 452.34 426.51
2018m6 525.25 525.25 457.07 429.86
2018m7 528.78 528.78 461.27 433.74
2018m8 530.82 530.82 466.46 442.10
2018m9 535.40 535.40 472.21 435.65
2018m1 539.44 539.44 477.17 456.42
2018m11 537.78 537.78 481.29 427.40
2018m12 539.24 539.24 479.81 438.05
2019m1 535.01 535.01 478.77 418.82
2019m2 529.16 529.16 469.71 405.40
2019m3 522.04 522.14 470.84 425.89
2019m4 518.45 518.56 466.12 366.15
2019m5 513.69 513.88 464.50 358.78
2019m6 508.08 508.27 461.19 351.14
2019m7 502.45 502.63 458.51 368.05
2019m8 495.78 495.96 451.43 367.52
2019m9 485.96 486.21 441.21 339.16
2019m1 473.90 474.15 434.28 345.33
2019m11 463.89 464.14 423.65 322.15
2019m12 451.65 451.89 417.94 337.45
2020m1 443.42 443.65 412.33 323.90
2020m2 433.08 433.27 401.70 305.05
2020m3 421.71 421.90 395.09 301.45
2020m4 418.09 418.28 395.79 290.92
2020m5 415.52 415.71 395.32 292.71
2020m6 414.19 414.38 395.87 306.97
2020m7 413.40 413.58 400.75 292.60
2020m8 413.06 413.25 408.21 308.47
2020m9 414.11 414.29 415.70 307.20
2020m1 418.82 419.01 423.74 330.33
2020m11 427.24 427.43 440.14 326.70
2020m12 435.45 435.64 452.07 327.52

Note: Dotted lines are the reported values by the respective countries. Solid lines reflect adjusted values.

Source: Authors' calculations, China Customs, U.S. Census.

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Figure 7: Adjusted U.S.-China Bilateral Goods Deficit

Billions USD

Year Adjusted China Reported Deficit Adjusted U.S. Reported Deficit
Adjusted Values Reported Adjusted Values Reported
2010 -181.31   -273.04  
2011 -202.42   -295.25  
2012 -219.12   -315.10  
2013 -215.93   -318.68  
2014 -236.96   -344.82  
2015 -260.36   -367.33  
2016 -253.99   -346.83  
2017 -277.97   -375.17  
2018 -324.45 -324.45 -418.95 -418.95
2019 -283.61 -295.60 -397.54 -345.20
2020 -304.10 -317.06 -361.26 -310.80

Note: Dotted lines are the reported values by the respective countries. Solid lines reflect adjusted values.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, China Customs, and authors' calculations.

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Last Update: June 21, 2021