Accessible Version
Factors in Unemployment Dynamics Accessible Data
Figure 1: U.S. unemployment rate (%), 1948:1 to 2018:7 and U.S. recessions (shaded)
| Period | Unemployment Rate |
|---|---|
| 1948:1 | 3.4 |
| 1948:2 | 3.8 |
| 1948:3 | 4.0 |
| 1948:4 | 3.9 |
| 1948:5 | 3.5 |
| 1948:6 | 3.6 |
| 1948:7 | 3.6 |
| 1948:8 | 3.9 |
| 1948:9 | 3.8 |
| 1948:10 | 3.7 |
| 1948:11 | 3.8 |
| 1948:12 | 4.0 |
| 1949:1 | 4.3 |
| 1949:2 | 4.7 |
| 1949:3 | 5.0 |
| 1949:4 | 5.3 |
| 1949:5 | 6.1 |
| 1949:6 | 6.2 |
| 1949:7 | 6.7 |
| 1949:8 | 6.8 |
| 1949:9 | 6.6 |
| 1949:10 | 7.9 |
| 1949:11 | 6.4 |
| 1949:12 | 6.6 |
| 1950:1 | 6.5 |
| 1950:2 | 6.4 |
| 1950:3 | 6.3 |
| 1950:4 | 5.8 |
| 1950:5 | 5.5 |
| 1950:6 | 5.4 |
| 1950:7 | 5.0 |
| 1950:8 | 4.5 |
| 1950:9 | 4.4 |
| 1950:10 | 4.2 |
| 1950:11 | 4.2 |
| 1950:12 | 4.3 |
| 1951:1 | 3.7 |
| 1951:2 | 3.4 |
| 1951:3 | 3.4 |
| 1951:4 | 3.1 |
| 1951:5 | 3.0 |
| 1951:6 | 3.2 |
| 1951:7 | 3.1 |
| 1951:8 | 3.1 |
| 1951:9 | 3.3 |
| 1951:10 | 3.5 |
| 1951:11 | 3.5 |
| 1951:12 | 3.1 |
| 1952:1 | 3.2 |
| 1952:2 | 3.1 |
| 1952:3 | 2.9 |
| 1952:4 | 2.9 |
| 1952:5 | 3.0 |
| 1952:6 | 3.0 |
| 1952:7 | 3.2 |
| 1952:8 | 3.4 |
| 1952:9 | 3.1 |
| 1952:10 | 3.0 |
| 1952:11 | 2.8 |
| 1952:12 | 2.7 |
| 1953:1 | 2.9 |
| 1953:2 | 2.6 |
| 1953:3 | 2.6 |
| 1953:4 | 2.7 |
| 1953:5 | 2.5 |
| 1953:6 | 2.5 |
| 1953:7 | 2.6 |
| 1953:8 | 2.7 |
| 1953:9 | 2.9 |
| 1953:10 | 3.1 |
| 1953:11 | 3.5 |
| 1953:12 | 4.5 |
| 1954:1 | 4.9 |
| 1954:2 | 5.2 |
| 1954:3 | 5.7 |
| 1954:4 | 5.9 |
| 1954:5 | 5.9 |
| 1954:6 | 5.6 |
| 1954:7 | 5.8 |
| 1954:8 | 6.0 |
| 1954:9 | 6.1 |
| 1954:10 | 5.7 |
| 1954:11 | 5.3 |
| 1954:12 | 5.0 |
| 1955:1 | 4.9 |
| 1955:2 | 4.7 |
| 1955:3 | 4.6 |
| 1955:4 | 4.7 |
| 1955:5 | 4.3 |
| 1955:6 | 4.2 |
| 1955:7 | 4.0 |
| 1955:8 | 4.2 |
| 1955:9 | 4.1 |
| 1955:10 | 4.3 |
| 1955:11 | 4.2 |
| 1955:12 | 4.2 |
| 1956:1 | 4.0 |
| 1956:2 | 3.9 |
| 1956:3 | 4.2 |
| 1956:4 | 4.0 |
| 1956:5 | 4.3 |
| 1956:6 | 4.3 |
| 1956:7 | 4.4 |
| 1956:8 | 4.1 |
| 1956:9 | 3.9 |
| 1956:10 | 3.9 |
| 1956:11 | 4.3 |
| 1956:12 | 4.2 |
| 1957:1 | 4.2 |
| 1957:2 | 3.9 |
| 1957:3 | 3.7 |
| 1957:4 | 3.9 |
| 1957:5 | 4.1 |
| 1957:6 | 4.3 |
| 1957:7 | 4.2 |
| 1957:8 | 4.1 |
| 1957:9 | 4.4 |
| 1957:10 | 4.5 |
| 1957:11 | 5.1 |
| 1957:12 | 5.2 |
| 1958:1 | 5.8 |
| 1958:2 | 6.4 |
| 1958:3 | 6.7 |
| 1958:4 | 7.4 |
| 1958:5 | 7.4 |
| 1958:6 | 7.3 |
| 1958:7 | 7.5 |
| 1958:8 | 7.4 |
| 1958:9 | 7.1 |
| 1958:10 | 6.7 |
| 1958:11 | 6.2 |
| 1958:12 | 6.2 |
| 1959:1 | 6.0 |
| 1959:2 | 5.9 |
| 1959:3 | 5.6 |
| 1959:4 | 5.2 |
| 1959:5 | 5.1 |
| 1959:6 | 5.0 |
| 1959:7 | 5.1 |
| 1959:8 | 5.2 |
| 1959:9 | 5.5 |
| 1959:10 | 5.7 |
| 1959:11 | 5.8 |
| 1959:12 | 5.3 |
| 1960:1 | 5.2 |
| 1960:2 | 4.8 |
| 1960:3 | 5.4 |
| 1960:4 | 5.2 |
| 1960:5 | 5.1 |
| 1960:6 | 5.4 |
| 1960:7 | 5.5 |
| 1960:8 | 5.6 |
| 1960:9 | 5.5 |
| 1960:10 | 6.1 |
| 1960:11 | 6.1 |
| 1960:12 | 6.6 |
| 1961:1 | 6.6 |
| 1961:2 | 6.9 |
| 1961:3 | 6.9 |
| 1961:4 | 7.0 |
| 1961:5 | 7.1 |
| 1961:6 | 6.9 |
| 1961:7 | 7.0 |
| 1961:8 | 6.6 |
| 1961:9 | 6.7 |
| 1961:10 | 6.5 |
| 1961:11 | 6.1 |
| 1961:12 | 6.0 |
| 1962:1 | 5.8 |
| 1962:2 | 5.5 |
| 1962:3 | 5.6 |
| 1962:4 | 5.6 |
| 1962:5 | 5.5 |
| 1962:6 | 5.5 |
| 1962:7 | 5.4 |
| 1962:8 | 5.7 |
| 1962:9 | 5.6 |
| 1962:10 | 5.4 |
| 1962:11 | 5.7 |
| 1962:12 | 5.5 |
| 1963:1 | 5.7 |
| 1963:2 | 5.9 |
| 1963:3 | 5.7 |
| 1963:4 | 5.7 |
| 1963:5 | 5.9 |
| 1963:6 | 5.6 |
| 1963:7 | 5.6 |
| 1963:8 | 5.4 |
| 1963:9 | 5.5 |
| 1963:10 | 5.5 |
| 1963:11 | 5.7 |
| 1963:12 | 5.5 |
| 1964:1 | 5.6 |
| 1964:2 | 5.4 |
| 1964:3 | 5.4 |
| 1964:4 | 5.3 |
| 1964:5 | 5.1 |
| 1964:6 | 5.2 |
| 1964:7 | 4.9 |
| 1964:8 | 5.0 |
| 1964:9 | 5.1 |
| 1964:10 | 5.1 |
| 1964:11 | 4.8 |
| 1964:12 | 5.0 |
| 1965:1 | 4.9 |
| 1965:2 | 5.1 |
| 1965:3 | 4.7 |
| 1965:4 | 4.8 |
| 1965:5 | 4.6 |
| 1965:6 | 4.6 |
| 1965:7 | 4.4 |
| 1965:8 | 4.4 |
| 1965:9 | 4.3 |
| 1965:10 | 4.2 |
| 1965:11 | 4.1 |
| 1965:12 | 4.0 |
| 1966:1 | 4.0 |
| 1966:2 | 3.8 |
| 1966:3 | 3.8 |
| 1966:4 | 3.8 |
| 1966:5 | 3.9 |
| 1966:6 | 3.8 |
| 1966:7 | 3.8 |
| 1966:8 | 3.8 |
| 1966:9 | 3.7 |
| 1966:10 | 3.7 |
| 1966:11 | 3.6 |
| 1966:12 | 3.8 |
| 1967:1 | 3.9 |
| 1967:2 | 3.8 |
| 1967:3 | 3.8 |
| 1967:4 | 3.8 |
| 1967:5 | 3.8 |
| 1967:6 | 3.9 |
| 1967:7 | 3.8 |
| 1967:8 | 3.8 |
| 1967:9 | 3.8 |
| 1967:10 | 4.0 |
| 1967:11 | 3.9 |
| 1967:12 | 3.8 |
| 1968:1 | 3.7 |
| 1968:2 | 3.8 |
| 1968:3 | 3.7 |
| 1968:4 | 3.5 |
| 1968:5 | 3.5 |
| 1968:6 | 3.7 |
| 1968:7 | 3.7 |
| 1968:8 | 3.5 |
| 1968:9 | 3.4 |
| 1968:10 | 3.4 |
| 1968:11 | 3.4 |
| 1968:12 | 3.4 |
| 1969:1 | 3.4 |
| 1969:2 | 3.4 |
| 1969:3 | 3.4 |
| 1969:4 | 3.4 |
| 1969:5 | 3.4 |
| 1969:6 | 3.5 |
| 1969:7 | 3.5 |
| 1969:8 | 3.5 |
| 1969:9 | 3.7 |
| 1969:10 | 3.7 |
| 1969:11 | 3.5 |
| 1969:12 | 3.5 |
| 1970:1 | 3.9 |
| 1970:2 | 4.2 |
| 1970:3 | 4.4 |
| 1970:4 | 4.6 |
| 1970:5 | 4.8 |
| 1970:6 | 4.9 |
| 1970:7 | 5.0 |
| 1970:8 | 5.1 |
| 1970:9 | 5.4 |
| 1970:10 | 5.5 |
| 1970:11 | 5.9 |
| 1970:12 | 6.1 |
| 1971:1 | 5.9 |
| 1971:2 | 5.9 |
| 1971:3 | 6.0 |
| 1971:4 | 5.9 |
| 1971:5 | 5.9 |
| 1971:6 | 5.9 |
| 1971:7 | 6.0 |
| 1971:8 | 6.1 |
| 1971:9 | 6.0 |
| 1971:10 | 5.8 |
| 1971:11 | 6.0 |
| 1971:12 | 6.0 |
| 1972:1 | 5.8 |
| 1972:2 | 5.7 |
| 1972:3 | 5.8 |
| 1972:4 | 5.7 |
| 1972:5 | 5.7 |
| 1972:6 | 5.7 |
| 1972:7 | 5.6 |
| 1972:8 | 5.6 |
| 1972:9 | 5.5 |
| 1972:10 | 5.6 |
| 1972:11 | 5.3 |
| 1972:12 | 5.2 |
| 1973:1 | 4.9 |
| 1973:2 | 5.0 |
| 1973:3 | 4.9 |
| 1973:4 | 5.0 |
| 1973:5 | 4.9 |
| 1973:6 | 4.9 |
| 1973:7 | 4.8 |
| 1973:8 | 4.8 |
| 1973:9 | 4.8 |
| 1973:10 | 4.6 |
| 1973:11 | 4.8 |
| 1973:12 | 4.9 |
| 1974:1 | 5.1 |
| 1974:2 | 5.2 |
| 1974:3 | 5.1 |
| 1974:4 | 5.1 |
| 1974:5 | 5.1 |
| 1974:6 | 5.4 |
| 1974:7 | 5.5 |
| 1974:8 | 5.5 |
| 1974:9 | 5.9 |
| 1974:10 | 6.0 |
| 1974:11 | 6.6 |
| 1974:12 | 7.2 |
| 1975:1 | 8.1 |
| 1975:2 | 8.1 |
| 1975:3 | 8.6 |
| 1975:4 | 8.8 |
| 1975:5 | 9.0 |
| 1975:6 | 8.8 |
| 1975:7 | 8.6 |
| 1975:8 | 8.4 |
| 1975:9 | 8.4 |
| 1975:10 | 8.4 |
| 1975:11 | 8.3 |
| 1975:12 | 8.2 |
| 1976:1 | 7.9 |
| 1976:2 | 7.7 |
| 1976:3 | 7.6 |
| 1976:4 | 7.7 |
| 1976:5 | 7.4 |
| 1976:6 | 7.6 |
| 1976:7 | 7.8 |
| 1976:8 | 7.8 |
| 1976:9 | 7.6 |
| 1976:10 | 7.7 |
| 1976:11 | 7.8 |
| 1976:12 | 7.8 |
| 1977:1 | 7.5 |
| 1977:2 | 7.6 |
| 1977:3 | 7.4 |
| 1977:4 | 7.2 |
| 1977:5 | 7.0 |
| 1977:6 | 7.2 |
| 1977:7 | 6.9 |
| 1977:8 | 7.0 |
| 1977:9 | 6.8 |
| 1977:10 | 6.8 |
| 1977:11 | 6.8 |
| 1977:12 | 6.4 |
| 1978:1 | 6.4 |
| 1978:2 | 6.3 |
| 1978:3 | 6.3 |
| 1978:4 | 6.1 |
| 1978:5 | 6.0 |
| 1978:6 | 5.9 |
| 1978:7 | 6.2 |
| 1978:8 | 5.9 |
| 1978:9 | 6.0 |
| 1978:10 | 5.8 |
| 1978:11 | 5.9 |
| 1978:12 | 6.0 |
| 1979:1 | 5.9 |
| 1979:2 | 5.9 |
| 1979:3 | 5.8 |
| 1979:4 | 5.8 |
| 1979:5 | 5.6 |
| 1979:6 | 5.7 |
| 1979:7 | 5.7 |
| 1979:8 | 6.0 |
| 1979:9 | 5.9 |
| 1979:10 | 6.0 |
| 1979:11 | 5.9 |
| 1979:12 | 6.0 |
| 1980:1 | 6.3 |
| 1980:2 | 6.3 |
| 1980:3 | 6.3 |
| 1980:4 | 6.9 |
| 1980:5 | 7.5 |
| 1980:6 | 7.6 |
| 1980:7 | 7.8 |
| 1980:8 | 7.7 |
| 1980:9 | 7.5 |
| 1980:10 | 7.5 |
| 1980:11 | 7.5 |
| 1980:12 | 7.2 |
| 1981:1 | 7.5 |
| 1981:2 | 7.4 |
| 1981:3 | 7.4 |
| 1981:4 | 7.2 |
| 1981:5 | 7.5 |
| 1981:6 | 7.5 |
| 1981:7 | 7.2 |
| 1981:8 | 7.4 |
| 1981:9 | 7.6 |
| 1981:10 | 7.9 |
| 1981:11 | 8.3 |
| 1981:12 | 8.5 |
| 1982:1 | 8.6 |
| 1982:2 | 8.9 |
| 1982:3 | 9.0 |
| 1982:4 | 9.3 |
| 1982:5 | 9.4 |
| 1982:6 | 9.6 |
| 1982:7 | 9.8 |
| 1982:8 | 9.8 |
| 1982:9 | 10.1 |
| 1982:10 | 10.4 |
| 1982:11 | 10.8 |
| 1982:12 | 10.8 |
| 1983:1 | 10.4 |
| 1983:2 | 10.4 |
| 1983:3 | 10.3 |
| 1983:4 | 10.2 |
| 1983:5 | 10.1 |
| 1983:6 | 10.1 |
| 1983:7 | 9.4 |
| 1983:8 | 9.5 |
| 1983:9 | 9.2 |
| 1983:10 | 8.8 |
| 1983:11 | 8.5 |
| 1983:12 | 8.3 |
| 1984:1 | 8.0 |
| 1984:2 | 7.8 |
| 1984:3 | 7.8 |
| 1984:4 | 7.7 |
| 1984:5 | 7.4 |
| 1984:6 | 7.2 |
| 1984:7 | 7.5 |
| 1984:8 | 7.5 |
| 1984:9 | 7.3 |
| 1984:10 | 7.4 |
| 1984:11 | 7.2 |
| 1984:12 | 7.3 |
| 1985:1 | 7.3 |
| 1985:2 | 7.2 |
| 1985:3 | 7.2 |
| 1985:4 | 7.3 |
| 1985:5 | 7.2 |
| 1985:6 | 7.4 |
| 1985:7 | 7.4 |
| 1985:8 | 7.1 |
| 1985:9 | 7.1 |
| 1985:10 | 7.1 |
| 1985:11 | 7.0 |
| 1985:12 | 7.0 |
| 1986:1 | 6.7 |
| 1986:2 | 7.2 |
| 1986:3 | 7.2 |
| 1986:4 | 7.1 |
| 1986:5 | 7.2 |
| 1986:6 | 7.2 |
| 1986:7 | 7.0 |
| 1986:8 | 6.9 |
| 1986:9 | 7.0 |
| 1986:10 | 7.0 |
| 1986:11 | 6.9 |
| 1986:12 | 6.6 |
| 1987:1 | 6.6 |
| 1987:2 | 6.6 |
| 1987:3 | 6.6 |
| 1987:4 | 6.3 |
| 1987:5 | 6.3 |
| 1987:6 | 6.2 |
| 1987:7 | 6.1 |
| 1987:8 | 6.0 |
| 1987:9 | 5.9 |
| 1987:10 | 6.0 |
| 1987:11 | 5.8 |
| 1987:12 | 5.7 |
| 1988:1 | 5.7 |
| 1988:2 | 5.7 |
| 1988:3 | 5.7 |
| 1988:4 | 5.4 |
| 1988:5 | 5.6 |
| 1988:6 | 5.4 |
| 1988:7 | 5.4 |
| 1988:8 | 5.6 |
| 1988:9 | 5.4 |
| 1988:10 | 5.4 |
| 1988:11 | 5.3 |
| 1988:12 | 5.3 |
| 1989:1 | 5.4 |
| 1989:2 | 5.2 |
| 1989:3 | 5.0 |
| 1989:4 | 5.2 |
| 1989:5 | 5.2 |
| 1989:6 | 5.3 |
| 1989:7 | 5.2 |
| 1989:8 | 5.2 |
| 1989:9 | 5.3 |
| 1989:10 | 5.3 |
| 1989:11 | 5.4 |
| 1989:12 | 5.4 |
| 1990:1 | 5.4 |
| 1990:2 | 5.3 |
| 1990:3 | 5.2 |
| 1990:4 | 5.4 |
| 1990:5 | 5.4 |
| 1990:6 | 5.2 |
| 1990:7 | 5.5 |
| 1990:8 | 5.7 |
| 1990:9 | 5.9 |
| 1990:10 | 5.9 |
| 1990:11 | 6.2 |
| 1990:12 | 6.3 |
| 1991:1 | 6.4 |
| 1991:2 | 6.6 |
| 1991:3 | 6.8 |
| 1991:4 | 6.7 |
| 1991:5 | 6.9 |
| 1991:6 | 6.9 |
| 1991:7 | 6.8 |
| 1991:8 | 6.9 |
| 1991:9 | 6.9 |
| 1991:10 | 7.0 |
| 1991:11 | 7.0 |
| 1991:12 | 7.3 |
| 1992:1 | 7.3 |
| 1992:2 | 7.4 |
| 1992:3 | 7.4 |
| 1992:4 | 7.4 |
| 1992:5 | 7.6 |
| 1992:6 | 7.8 |
| 1992:7 | 7.7 |
| 1992:8 | 7.6 |
| 1992:9 | 7.6 |
| 1992:10 | 7.3 |
| 1992:11 | 7.4 |
| 1992:12 | 7.4 |
| 1993:1 | 7.3 |
| 1993:2 | 7.1 |
| 1993:3 | 7.0 |
| 1993:4 | 7.1 |
| 1993:5 | 7.1 |
| 1993:6 | 7.0 |
| 1993:7 | 6.9 |
| 1993:8 | 6.8 |
| 1993:9 | 6.7 |
| 1993:10 | 6.8 |
| 1993:11 | 6.6 |
| 1993:12 | 6.5 |
| 1994:1 | 6.6 |
| 1994:2 | 6.6 |
| 1994:3 | 6.5 |
| 1994:4 | 6.4 |
| 1994:5 | 6.1 |
| 1994:6 | 6.1 |
| 1994:7 | 6.1 |
| 1994:8 | 6.0 |
| 1994:9 | 5.9 |
| 1994:10 | 5.8 |
| 1994:11 | 5.6 |
| 1994:12 | 5.5 |
| 1995:1 | 5.6 |
| 1995:2 | 5.4 |
| 1995:3 | 5.4 |
| 1995:4 | 5.8 |
| 1995:5 | 5.6 |
| 1995:6 | 5.6 |
| 1995:7 | 5.7 |
| 1995:8 | 5.7 |
| 1995:9 | 5.6 |
| 1995:10 | 5.5 |
| 1995:11 | 5.6 |
| 1995:12 | 5.6 |
| 1996:1 | 5.6 |
| 1996:2 | 5.5 |
| 1996:3 | 5.5 |
| 1996:4 | 5.6 |
| 1996:5 | 5.6 |
| 1996:6 | 5.3 |
| 1996:7 | 5.5 |
| 1996:8 | 5.1 |
| 1996:9 | 5.2 |
| 1996:10 | 5.2 |
| 1996:11 | 5.4 |
| 1996:12 | 5.4 |
| 1997:1 | 5.3 |
| 1997:2 | 5.2 |
| 1997:3 | 5.2 |
| 1997:4 | 5.1 |
| 1997:5 | 4.9 |
| 1997:6 | 5.0 |
| 1997:7 | 4.9 |
| 1997:8 | 4.8 |
| 1997:9 | 4.9 |
| 1997:10 | 4.7 |
| 1997:11 | 4.6 |
| 1997:12 | 4.7 |
| 1998:1 | 4.6 |
| 1998:2 | 4.6 |
| 1998:3 | 4.7 |
| 1998:4 | 4.3 |
| 1998:5 | 4.4 |
| 1998:6 | 4.5 |
| 1998:7 | 4.5 |
| 1998:8 | 4.5 |
| 1998:9 | 4.6 |
| 1998:10 | 4.5 |
| 1998:11 | 4.4 |
| 1998:12 | 4.4 |
| 1999:1 | 4.3 |
| 1999:2 | 4.4 |
| 1999:3 | 4.2 |
| 1999:4 | 4.3 |
| 1999:5 | 4.2 |
| 1999:6 | 4.3 |
| 1999:7 | 4.3 |
| 1999:8 | 4.2 |
| 1999:9 | 4.2 |
| 1999:10 | 4.1 |
| 1999:11 | 4.1 |
| 1999:12 | 4.0 |
| 2000:1 | 4.0 |
| 2000:2 | 4.1 |
| 2000:3 | 4.0 |
| 2000:4 | 3.8 |
| 2000:5 | 4.0 |
| 2000:6 | 4.0 |
| 2000:7 | 4.0 |
| 2000:8 | 4.1 |
| 2000:9 | 3.9 |
| 2000:10 | 3.9 |
| 2000:11 | 3.9 |
| 2000:12 | 3.9 |
| 2001:1 | 4.2 |
| 2001:2 | 4.2 |
| 2001:3 | 4.3 |
| 2001:4 | 4.4 |
| 2001:5 | 4.3 |
| 2001:6 | 4.5 |
| 2001:7 | 4.6 |
| 2001:8 | 4.9 |
| 2001:9 | 5.0 |
| 2001:10 | 5.3 |
| 2001:11 | 5.5 |
| 2001:12 | 5.7 |
| 2002:1 | 5.7 |
| 2002:2 | 5.7 |
| 2002:3 | 5.7 |
| 2002:4 | 5.9 |
| 2002:5 | 5.8 |
| 2002:6 | 5.8 |
| 2002:7 | 5.8 |
| 2002:8 | 5.7 |
| 2002:9 | 5.7 |
| 2002:10 | 5.7 |
| 2002:11 | 5.9 |
| 2002:12 | 6.0 |
| 2003:1 | 5.8 |
| 2003:2 | 5.9 |
| 2003:3 | 5.9 |
| 2003:4 | 6.0 |
| 2003:5 | 6.1 |
| 2003:6 | 6.3 |
| 2003:7 | 6.2 |
| 2003:8 | 6.1 |
| 2003:9 | 6.1 |
| 2003:10 | 6.0 |
| 2003:11 | 5.8 |
| 2003:12 | 5.7 |
| 2004:1 | 5.7 |
| 2004:2 | 5.6 |
| 2004:3 | 5.8 |
| 2004:4 | 5.6 |
| 2004:5 | 5.6 |
| 2004:6 | 5.6 |
| 2004:7 | 5.5 |
| 2004:8 | 5.4 |
| 2004:9 | 5.4 |
| 2004:10 | 5.5 |
| 2004:11 | 5.4 |
| 2004:12 | 5.4 |
| 2005:1 | 5.3 |
| 2005:2 | 5.4 |
| 2005:3 | 5.2 |
| 2005:4 | 5.2 |
| 2005:5 | 5.1 |
| 2005:6 | 5.0 |
| 2005:7 | 5.0 |
| 2005:8 | 4.9 |
| 2005:9 | 5.0 |
| 2005:10 | 5.0 |
| 2005:11 | 5.0 |
| 2005:12 | 4.9 |
| 2006:1 | 4.7 |
| 2006:2 | 4.8 |
| 2006:3 | 4.7 |
| 2006:4 | 4.7 |
| 2006:5 | 4.6 |
| 2006:6 | 4.6 |
| 2006:7 | 4.7 |
| 2006:8 | 4.7 |
| 2006:9 | 4.5 |
| 2006:10 | 4.4 |
| 2006:11 | 4.5 |
| 2006:12 | 4.4 |
| 2007:1 | 4.6 |
| 2007:2 | 4.5 |
| 2007:3 | 4.4 |
| 2007:4 | 4.5 |
| 2007:5 | 4.4 |
| 2007:6 | 4.6 |
| 2007:7 | 4.7 |
| 2007:8 | 4.6 |
| 2007:9 | 4.7 |
| 2007:10 | 4.7 |
| 2007:11 | 4.7 |
| 2007:12 | 5.0 |
| 2008:1 | 5.0 |
| 2008:2 | 4.9 |
| 2008:3 | 5.1 |
| 2008:4 | 5.0 |
| 2008:5 | 5.4 |
| 2008:6 | 5.6 |
| 2008:7 | 5.8 |
| 2008:8 | 6.1 |
| 2008:9 | 6.1 |
| 2008:10 | 6.5 |
| 2008:11 | 6.8 |
| 2008:12 | 7.3 |
| 2009:1 | 7.8 |
| 2009:2 | 8.3 |
| 2009:3 | 8.7 |
| 2009:4 | 9.0 |
| 2009:5 | 9.4 |
| 2009:6 | 9.5 |
| 2009:7 | 9.5 |
| 2009:8 | 9.6 |
| 2009:9 | 9.8 |
| 2009:10 | 10.0 |
| 2009:11 | 9.9 |
| 2009:12 | 9.9 |
| 2010:1 | 9.8 |
| 2010:2 | 9.8 |
| 2010:3 | 9.9 |
| 2010:4 | 9.9 |
| 2010:5 | 9.6 |
| 2010:6 | 9.4 |
| 2010:7 | 9.4 |
| 2010:8 | 9.5 |
| 2010:9 | 9.5 |
| 2010:10 | 9.4 |
| 2010:11 | 9.8 |
| 2010:12 | 9.3 |
| 2011:1 | 9.1 |
| 2011:2 | 9.0 |
| 2011:3 | 9.0 |
| 2011:4 | 9.1 |
| 2011:5 | 9.0 |
| 2011:6 | 9.1 |
| 2011:7 | 9.0 |
| 2011:8 | 9.0 |
| 2011:9 | 9.0 |
| 2011:10 | 8.8 |
| 2011:11 | 8.6 |
| 2011:12 | 8.5 |
| 2012:1 | 8.3 |
| 2012:2 | 8.3 |
| 2012:3 | 8.2 |
| 2012:4 | 8.2 |
| 2012:5 | 8.2 |
| 2012:6 | 8.2 |
| 2012:7 | 8.2 |
| 2012:8 | 8.1 |
| 2012:9 | 7.8 |
| 2012:10 | 7.8 |
| 2012:11 | 7.7 |
| 2012:12 | 7.9 |
| 2013:1 | 8.0 |
| 2013:2 | 7.7 |
| 2013:3 | 7.5 |
| 2013:4 | 7.6 |
| 2013:5 | 7.5 |
| 2013:6 | 7.5 |
| 2013:7 | 7.3 |
| 2013:8 | 7.2 |
| 2013:9 | 7.2 |
| 2013:10 | 7.2 |
| 2013:11 | 6.9 |
| 2013:12 | 6.7 |
| 2014:1 | 6.6 |
| 2014:2 | 6.7 |
| 2014:3 | 6.7 |
| 2014:4 | 6.3 |
| 2014:5 | 6.3 |
| 2014:6 | 6.1 |
| 2014:7 | 6.2 |
| 2014:8 | 6.2 |
| 2014:9 | 5.9 |
| 2014:10 | 5.7 |
| 2014:11 | 5.8 |
| 2014:12 | 5.6 |
| 2015:1 | 5.7 |
| 2015:2 | 5.5 |
| 2015:3 | 5.5 |
| 2015:4 | 5.4 |
| 2015:5 | 5.5 |
| 2015:6 | 5.3 |
| 2015:7 | 5.2 |
| 2015:8 | 5.1 |
| 2015:9 | 5.0 |
| 2015:10 | 5.0 |
| 2015:11 | 5.0 |
| 2015:12 | 5.0 |
| 2016:1 | 4.9 |
| 2016:2 | 4.9 |
| 2016:3 | 5.0 |
| 2016:4 | 5.0 |
| 2016:5 | 4.7 |
| 2016:6 | 4.9 |
| 2016:7 | 4.9 |
| 2016:8 | 4.9 |
| 2016:9 | 5.0 |
| 2016:10 | 4.9 |
| 2016:11 | 4.6 |
| 2016:12 | 4.7 |
| 2017:1 | 4.8 |
| 2017:2 | 4.7 |
| 2017:3 | 4.5 |
| 2017:4 | 4.4 |
| 2017:5 | 4.3 |
| 2017:6 | 4.3 |
| 2017:7 | 4.3 |
| 2017:8 | 4.4 |
| 2017:9 | 4.2 |
| 2017:10 | 4.1 |
| 2017:11 | 4.1 |
| 2017:12 | 4.1 |
| 2018:1 | 4.1 |
| 2018:2 | 4.1 |
| 2018:3 | 4.1 |
| 2018:4 | 3.9 |
| 2018:5 | 3.8 |
| 2018:6 | 4.0 |
| 2018:7 | 3.9 |
Note: U.S. recessions shown are November 1948-October 1949, July 1953-May 1954, August 1957-April 1958, April 1960-February 1961, December 1969-November 1970, November 1973-March 1975, January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 2: Ex ante heterogeneity can cause observed unemployment-continuation probabilities to increase with duration
Figure 2 shows the number of unemployed individuals by duration as an example. There are 100 newly unemployed workers denoted as U1. The green bar is the size of type H workers that is 80. The red bar is that of type L workers, 20. If the probability to stay unemployed is 0.35 for type H workers, and is 0.85 for type L workers, then there are 28 type H workers denoted as the green bar and 17 type L workers denoted as the red bar. The average probability to stay unemployed next month of those in U1 is 0.45. Next month, in U3 the size of green bar is 10 and that of red bar is 15. The average probability to stay unemployed next month of those in U2 is 0.54. Five months later, the green bar disappears and only the red bar remains. The size of red bar is 9 in U6. The average unemployment continuation probability of those unemployed for six months is 0.83.
Source: Ahn and Hamilton (forthcoming).
Figure 3: The major change during 2007:12 through 2013:12 was more inflows of type L individuals
Figure 3 shows the number of unemployed individuals by duration as an example. There are 100 newly unemployed workers denoted as U1. The green bar is the size of type H workers that is 68. The red bar is that of type L workers, 32. If the probability to stay unemployed is 0.33 for type H workers, and is 0.89 for type L workers, then there are 22 type H workers denoted as the green bar and 28 type L workers denoted as the red bar. The average probability to stay unemployed next month of those in U1 is 0.51. Next month, in U3 the size of green bar is 7 and that of red bar is 23. The average probability to stay unemployed next month of those in U2 is 0.64. Five months later, the green bar disappears and only the red bar remains. The size of red bar is 16 in U6. The average unemployment continuation probability of those unemployed for six months is 0.88.
Source: Numbers represent new inflows and unemployment-continuation probabilities calibrated to average counts of unemployed by duration over 2007:12 through 2013:12. Calculated using parameters in row 7 of Ahn and Hamilton (forthcoming).
Figure 4: Unemployment-continuation probabilities for newly unemployed individuals of each type, 1978:1-2018:6
| Period | P_{L,t}(1) | P_{H,t}(1) |
|---|---|---|
| 1978:1 | 0.773336 | 0.395815 |
| 1978:2 | 0.773468 | 0.395689 |
| 1978:3 | 0.77391 | 0.394972 |
| 1978:4 | 0.773753 | 0.393085 |
| 1978:5 | 0.773898 | 0.391996 |
| 1978:6 | 0.77445 | 0.392147 |
| 1978:7 | 0.774467 | 0.390953 |
| 1978:8 | 0.774544 | 0.390576 |
| 1978:9 | 0.774672 | 0.389259 |
| 1978:10 | 0.775418 | 0.389444 |
| 1978:11 | 0.77711 | 0.391836 |
| 1978:12 | 0.778972 | 0.394496 |
| 1979:1 | 0.779652 | 0.394739 |
| 1979:2 | 0.779406 | 0.393605 |
| 1979:3 | 0.778433 | 0.391693 |
| 1979:4 | 0.777088 | 0.389268 |
| 1979:5 | 0.776364 | 0.386751 |
| 1979:6 | 0.776733 | 0.384652 |
| 1979:7 | 0.778289 | 0.383949 |
| 1979:8 | 0.780093 | 0.381315 |
| 1979:9 | 0.783187 | 0.381362 |
| 1979:10 | 0.786247 | 0.379023 |
| 1979:11 | 0.790275 | 0.37748 |
| 1979:12 | 0.796007 | 0.380189 |
| 1980:1 | 0.801754 | 0.383765 |
| 1980:2 | 0.807302 | 0.38914 |
| 1980:3 | 0.81202 | 0.394934 |
| 1980:4 | 0.81586 | 0.401701 |
| 1980:5 | 0.818623 | 0.408548 |
| 1980:6 | 0.819901 | 0.413002 |
| 1980:7 | 0.818943 | 0.411998 |
| 1980:8 | 0.816811 | 0.408887 |
| 1980:9 | 0.815042 | 0.406734 |
| 1980:10 | 0.813106 | 0.404503 |
| 1980:11 | 0.810684 | 0.401289 |
| 1980:12 | 0.807908 | 0.397344 |
| 1981:1 | 0.805804 | 0.397931 |
| 1981:2 | 0.803197 | 0.399203 |
| 1981:3 | 0.800621 | 0.400103 |
| 1981:4 | 0.799234 | 0.401498 |
| 1981:5 | 0.798799 | 0.402254 |
| 1981:6 | 0.798251 | 0.398975 |
| 1981:7 | 0.799973 | 0.398116 |
| 1981:8 | 0.803419 | 0.399372 |
| 1981:9 | 0.807521 | 0.401254 |
| 1981:10 | 0.812835 | 0.404451 |
| 1981:11 | 0.818685 | 0.408569 |
| 1981:12 | 0.825005 | 0.413255 |
| 1982:1 | 0.831107 | 0.417463 |
| 1982:2 | 0.83654 | 0.421647 |
| 1982:3 | 0.840537 | 0.425539 |
| 1982:4 | 0.844489 | 0.429893 |
| 1982:5 | 0.848603 | 0.433108 |
| 1982:6 | 0.852745 | 0.435301 |
| 1982:7 | 0.856649 | 0.435897 |
| 1982:8 | 0.861816 | 0.439574 |
| 1982:9 | 0.867049 | 0.44481 |
| 1982:10 | 0.870231 | 0.448179 |
| 1982:11 | 0.870198 | 0.449894 |
| 1982:12 | 0.866823 | 0.447359 |
| 1983:1 | 0.861669 | 0.443277 |
| 1983:2 | 0.856795 | 0.439613 |
| 1983:3 | 0.853516 | 0.437934 |
| 1983:4 | 0.850973 | 0.43635 |
| 1983:5 | 0.848697 | 0.434691 |
| 1983:6 | 0.842613 | 0.433528 |
| 1983:7 | 0.833736 | 0.433652 |
| 1983:8 | 0.826575 | 0.434838 |
| 1983:9 | 0.821258 | 0.430544 |
| 1983:10 | 0.819565 | 0.427629 |
| 1983:11 | 0.820951 | 0.424701 |
| 1983:12 | 0.824266 | 0.422379 |
| 1984:1 | 0.828825 | 0.421841 |
| 1984:2 | 0.832278 | 0.421755 |
| 1984:3 | 0.836263 | 0.422056 |
| 1984:4 | 0.838908 | 0.420978 |
| 1984:5 | 0.840788 | 0.419289 |
| 1984:6 | 0.841983 | 0.419182 |
| 1984:7 | 0.843658 | 0.422485 |
| 1984:8 | 0.844323 | 0.42336 |
| 1984:9 | 0.845186 | 0.424152 |
| 1984:10 | 0.845967 | 0.422136 |
| 1984:11 | 0.847409 | 0.423124 |
| 1984:12 | 0.848874 | 0.426715 |
| 1985:1 | 0.84935 | 0.426217 |
| 1985:2 | 0.849862 | 0.424471 |
| 1985:3 | 0.850431 | 0.424626 |
| 1985:4 | 0.850502 | 0.426744 |
| 1985:5 | 0.850104 | 0.428875 |
| 1985:6 | 0.849641 | 0.42978 |
| 1985:7 | 0.848869 | 0.431137 |
| 1985:8 | 0.848165 | 0.431889 |
| 1985:9 | 0.848281 | 0.432937 |
| 1985:10 | 0.848772 | 0.432583 |
| 1985:11 | 0.849565 | 0.432498 |
| 1985:12 | 0.850805 | 0.435228 |
| 1986:1 | 0.852639 | 0.437441 |
| 1986:2 | 0.854997 | 0.442316 |
| 1986:3 | 0.856282 | 0.444394 |
| 1986:4 | 0.857207 | 0.445269 |
| 1986:5 | 0.857544 | 0.44462 |
| 1986:6 | 0.856626 | 0.442501 |
| 1986:7 | 0.854355 | 0.438098 |
| 1986:8 | 0.851962 | 0.436394 |
| 1986:9 | 0.849598 | 0.439128 |
| 1986:10 | 0.846573 | 0.43794 |
| 1986:11 | 0.843745 | 0.434762 |
| 1986:12 | 0.841207 | 0.428516 |
| 1987:1 | 0.839555 | 0.425282 |
| 1987:2 | 0.838414 | 0.42247 |
| 1987:3 | 0.837381 | 0.418378 |
| 1987:4 | 0.836193 | 0.412867 |
| 1987:5 | 0.835502 | 0.408914 |
| 1987:6 | 0.834515 | 0.407668 |
| 1987:7 | 0.833285 | 0.405775 |
| 1987:8 | 0.83266 | 0.403783 |
| 1987:9 | 0.832226 | 0.401883 |
| 1987:10 | 0.832167 | 0.402616 |
| 1987:11 | 0.831889 | 0.401641 |
| 1987:12 | 0.83174 | 0.402033 |
| 1988:1 | 0.831973 | 0.405243 |
| 1988:2 | 0.831815 | 0.405281 |
| 1988:3 | 0.831411 | 0.403206 |
| 1988:4 | 0.831494 | 0.39968 |
| 1988:5 | 0.832213 | 0.398626 |
| 1988:6 | 0.832036 | 0.3967 |
| 1988:7 | 0.83157 | 0.396497 |
| 1988:8 | 0.829882 | 0.393212 |
| 1988:9 | 0.827433 | 0.39003 |
| 1988:10 | 0.825165 | 0.389771 |
| 1988:11 | 0.823228 | 0.39205 |
| 1988:12 | 0.821485 | 0.393414 |
| 1989:1 | 0.819611 | 0.392257 |
| 1989:2 | 0.81813 | 0.389428 |
| 1989:3 | 0.818272 | 0.389342 |
| 1989:4 | 0.819313 | 0.391958 |
| 1989:5 | 0.820339 | 0.393403 |
| 1989:6 | 0.821473 | 0.393972 |
| 1989:7 | 0.82274 | 0.393607 |
| 1989:8 | 0.82403 | 0.394261 |
| 1989:9 | 0.82532 | 0.394225 |
| 1989:10 | 0.82646 | 0.395099 |
| 1989:11 | 0.827186 | 0.396438 |
| 1989:12 | 0.827674 | 0.397718 |
| 1990:1 | 0.828613 | 0.400612 |
| 1990:2 | 0.82977 | 0.402762 |
| 1990:3 | 0.831719 | 0.406117 |
| 1990:4 | 0.834276 | 0.410372 |
| 1990:5 | 0.836814 | 0.413813 |
| 1990:6 | 0.839301 | 0.415495 |
| 1990:7 | 0.842049 | 0.420083 |
| 1990:8 | 0.844072 | 0.424191 |
| 1990:9 | 0.845481 | 0.429011 |
| 1990:10 | 0.846262 | 0.432801 |
| 1990:11 | 0.846932 | 0.436599 |
| 1990:12 | 0.8472 | 0.440738 |
| 1991:1 | 0.847505 | 0.444929 |
| 1991:2 | 0.847937 | 0.449593 |
| 1991:3 | 0.847904 | 0.452806 |
| 1991:4 | 0.847116 | 0.451503 |
| 1991:5 | 0.846693 | 0.450747 |
| 1991:6 | 0.846831 | 0.448069 |
| 1991:7 | 0.847244 | 0.443601 |
| 1991:8 | 0.849421 | 0.439765 |
| 1991:9 | 0.852975 | 0.436501 |
| 1991:10 | 0.857423 | 0.43355 |
| 1991:11 | 0.861669 | 0.42962 |
| 1991:12 | 0.864663 | 0.425842 |
| 1992:1 | 0.866052 | 0.422447 |
| 1992:2 | 0.865714 | 0.419608 |
| 1992:3 | 0.863576 | 0.415104 |
| 1992:4 | 0.861011 | 0.413642 |
| 1992:5 | 0.85753 | 0.413135 |
| 1992:6 | 0.851921 | 0.412959 |
| 1992:7 | 0.84454 | 0.411882 |
| 1992:8 | 0.838288 | 0.411043 |
| 1992:9 | 0.83337 | 0.41 |
| 1992:10 | 0.829356 | 0.409214 |
| 1992:11 | 0.826639 | 0.412963 |
| 1992:12 | 0.822676 | 0.410741 |
| 1993:1 | 0.817627 | 0.407136 |
| 1993:2 | 0.815885 | 0.405081 |
| 1993:3 | 0.817474 | 0.404457 |
| 1993:4 | 0.821537 | 0.402535 |
| 1993:5 | 0.826659 | 0.400821 |
| 1993:6 | 0.829982 | 0.398795 |
| 1993:7 | 0.829829 | 0.392991 |
| 1993:8 | 0.829926 | 0.38816 |
| 1993:9 | 0.829316 | 0.382506 |
| 1993:10 | 0.828291 | 0.376748 |
| 1993:11 | 0.825983 | 0.369554 |
| 1993:12 | 0.821744 | 0.359588 |
| 1994:1 | 0.818311 | 0.350428 |
| 1994:2 | 0.817225 | 0.34627 |
| 1994:3 | 0.813799 | 0.337805 |
| 1994:4 | 0.810696 | 0.33037 |
| 1994:5 | 0.809261 | 0.325557 |
| 1994:6 | 0.808131 | 0.321411 |
| 1994:7 | 0.80762 | 0.318257 |
| 1994:8 | 0.806428 | 0.317342 |
| 1994:9 | 0.802193 | 0.312628 |
| 1994:10 | 0.797628 | 0.309214 |
| 1994:11 | 0.792184 | 0.305893 |
| 1994:12 | 0.790418 | 0.304654 |
| 1995:1 | 0.792293 | 0.304989 |
| 1995:2 | 0.796741 | 0.307178 |
| 1995:3 | 0.801766 | 0.311137 |
| 1995:4 | 0.804205 | 0.315398 |
| 1995:5 | 0.802793 | 0.318344 |
| 1995:6 | 0.800695 | 0.321516 |
| 1995:7 | 0.799809 | 0.324244 |
| 1995:8 | 0.797284 | 0.322435 |
| 1995:9 | 0.796156 | 0.319764 |
| 1995:10 | 0.798294 | 0.318947 |
| 1995:11 | 0.80156 | 0.318308 |
| 1995:12 | 0.805011 | 0.318294 |
| 1996:1 | 0.807196 | 0.317352 |
| 1996:2 | 0.808191 | 0.316148 |
| 1996:3 | 0.808915 | 0.31677 |
| 1996:4 | 0.807432 | 0.318002 |
| 1996:5 | 0.803249 | 0.316959 |
| 1996:6 | 0.798754 | 0.314988 |
| 1996:7 | 0.795987 | 0.315628 |
| 1996:8 | 0.793533 | 0.315395 |
| 1996:9 | 0.792724 | 0.317032 |
| 1996:10 | 0.792284 | 0.318847 |
| 1996:11 | 0.791342 | 0.318705 |
| 1996:12 | 0.791459 | 0.319832 |
| 1997:1 | 0.790758 | 0.318855 |
| 1997:2 | 0.791399 | 0.320097 |
| 1997:3 | 0.790936 | 0.319458 |
| 1997:4 | 0.789624 | 0.317251 |
| 1997:5 | 0.788665 | 0.315353 |
| 1997:6 | 0.788775 | 0.314855 |
| 1997:7 | 0.788163 | 0.312982 |
| 1997:8 | 0.787215 | 0.311075 |
| 1997:9 | 0.785709 | 0.308127 |
| 1997:10 | 0.783753 | 0.304403 |
| 1997:11 | 0.783065 | 0.302048 |
| 1997:12 | 0.782171 | 0.299235 |
| 1998:1 | 0.780569 | 0.29706 |
| 1998:2 | 0.778794 | 0.295071 |
| 1998:3 | 0.777788 | 0.293403 |
| 1998:4 | 0.778423 | 0.291896 |
| 1998:5 | 0.782246 | 0.292458 |
| 1998:6 | 0.786224 | 0.293866 |
| 1998:7 | 0.787446 | 0.293085 |
| 1998:8 | 0.787133 | 0.291861 |
| 1998:9 | 0.785333 | 0.290406 |
| 1998:10 | 0.782219 | 0.288223 |
| 1998:11 | 0.779587 | 0.286824 |
| 1998:12 | 0.777278 | 0.284528 |
| 1999:1 | 0.777116 | 0.284638 |
| 1999:2 | 0.776934 | 0.282403 |
| 1999:3 | 0.77655 | 0.279025 |
| 1999:4 | 0.776429 | 0.27521 |
| 1999:5 | 0.77632 | 0.272119 |
| 1999:6 | 0.7759 | 0.270573 |
| 1999:7 | 0.774755 | 0.270142 |
| 1999:8 | 0.773722 | 0.270253 |
| 1999:9 | 0.772458 | 0.270139 |
| 1999:10 | 0.770838 | 0.269435 |
| 1999:11 | 0.768853 | 0.267707 |
| 1999:12 | 0.768134 | 0.266571 |
| 2000:1 | 0.769623 | 0.268798 |
| 2000:2 | 0.77073 | 0.271235 |
| 2000:3 | 0.77102 | 0.27146 |
| 2000:4 | 0.772058 | 0.272683 |
| 2000:5 | 0.772913 | 0.273341 |
| 2000:6 | 0.77327 | 0.272303 |
| 2000:7 | 0.775083 | 0.272563 |
| 2000:8 | 0.77607 | 0.271983 |
| 2000:9 | 0.776184 | 0.269513 |
| 2000:10 | 0.777852 | 0.268339 |
| 2000:11 | 0.78047 | 0.268385 |
| 2000:12 | 0.78315 | 0.268472 |
| 2001:1 | 0.784888 | 0.267937 |
| 2001:2 | 0.785368 | 0.26551 |
| 2001:3 | 0.786589 | 0.265671 |
| 2001:4 | 0.78701 | 0.263585 |
| 2001:5 | 0.789667 | 0.262355 |
| 2001:6 | 0.79471 | 0.261941 |
| 2001:7 | 0.801452 | 0.263538 |
| 2001:8 | 0.80735 | 0.264773 |
| 2001:9 | 0.812475 | 0.267367 |
| 2001:10 | 0.815991 | 0.269869 |
| 2001:11 | 0.817498 | 0.271493 |
| 2001:12 | 0.816973 | 0.273193 |
| 2002:1 | 0.813676 | 0.271818 |
| 2002:2 | 0.811324 | 0.272058 |
| 2002:3 | 0.810931 | 0.27406 |
| 2002:4 | 0.810759 | 0.276937 |
| 2002:5 | 0.807814 | 0.274854 |
| 2002:6 | 0.805962 | 0.274038 |
| 2002:7 | 0.804609 | 0.272201 |
| 2002:8 | 0.806476 | 0.272325 |
| 2002:9 | 0.810287 | 0.272334 |
| 2002:10 | 0.813899 | 0.272108 |
| 2002:11 | 0.816397 | 0.272133 |
| 2002:12 | 0.817589 | 0.272564 |
| 2003:1 | 0.816643 | 0.272218 |
| 2003:2 | 0.817064 | 0.271862 |
| 2003:3 | 0.818764 | 0.271622 |
| 2003:4 | 0.821606 | 0.272858 |
| 2003:5 | 0.822526 | 0.274267 |
| 2003:6 | 0.821766 | 0.276917 |
| 2003:7 | 0.817025 | 0.278761 |
| 2003:8 | 0.812779 | 0.282292 |
| 2003:9 | 0.80945 | 0.285958 |
| 2003:10 | 0.805949 | 0.28657 |
| 2003:11 | 0.804253 | 0.287364 |
| 2003:12 | 0.803429 | 0.288562 |
| 2004:1 | 0.803586 | 0.289948 |
| 2004:2 | 0.804465 | 0.292056 |
| 2004:3 | 0.804889 | 0.293087 |
| 2004:4 | 0.803957 | 0.293221 |
| 2004:5 | 0.804966 | 0.293214 |
| 2004:6 | 0.80571 | 0.293522 |
| 2004:7 | 0.806762 | 0.293943 |
| 2004:8 | 0.8096 | 0.294154 |
| 2004:9 | 0.811183 | 0.291399 |
| 2004:10 | 0.813656 | 0.291324 |
| 2004:11 | 0.813781 | 0.292177 |
| 2004:12 | 0.812232 | 0.29302 |
| 2005:1 | 0.810205 | 0.294807 |
| 2005:2 | 0.80731 | 0.296532 |
| 2005:3 | 0.802761 | 0.297197 |
| 2005:4 | 0.797893 | 0.296946 |
| 2005:5 | 0.795244 | 0.296637 |
| 2005:6 | 0.795343 | 0.297332 |
| 2005:7 | 0.797171 | 0.296711 |
| 2005:8 | 0.798172 | 0.294785 |
| 2005:9 | 0.798043 | 0.292388 |
| 2005:10 | 0.797401 | 0.289804 |
| 2005:11 | 0.796945 | 0.287481 |
| 2005:12 | 0.796866 | 0.28576 |
| 2006:1 | 0.796982 | 0.28434 |
| 2006:2 | 0.797685 | 0.282841 |
| 2006:3 | 0.797065 | 0.282367 |
| 2006:4 | 0.797339 | 0.284091 |
| 2006:5 | 0.796333 | 0.285102 |
| 2006:6 | 0.795114 | 0.285033 |
| 2006:7 | 0.795935 | 0.286305 |
| 2006:8 | 0.795352 | 0.28773 |
| 2006:9 | 0.793607 | 0.287701 |
| 2006:10 | 0.794275 | 0.290028 |
| 2006:11 | 0.796681 | 0.292659 |
| 2006:12 | 0.798812 | 0.293681 |
| 2007:1 | 0.802594 | 0.29631 |
| 2007:2 | 0.804567 | 0.296667 |
| 2007:3 | 0.806061 | 0.297746 |
| 2007:4 | 0.807255 | 0.299397 |
| 2007:5 | 0.80781 | 0.300281 |
| 2007:6 | 0.808297 | 0.30055 |
| 2007:7 | 0.80836 | 0.301368 |
| 2007:8 | 0.807672 | 0.30183 |
| 2007:9 | 0.808575 | 0.303499 |
| 2007:10 | 0.809303 | 0.304114 |
| 2007:11 | 0.80941 | 0.30144 |
| 2007:12 | 0.811859 | 0.30121 |
| 2008:1 | 0.814415 | 0.300768 |
| 2008:2 | 0.818327 | 0.300409 |
| 2008:3 | 0.824709 | 0.300922 |
| 2008:4 | 0.831484 | 0.299607 |
| 2008:5 | 0.838454 | 0.297884 |
| 2008:6 | 0.846016 | 0.29846 |
| 2008:7 | 0.849763 | 0.292162 |
| 2008:8 | 0.853637 | 0.286371 |
| 2008:9 | 0.858031 | 0.283146 |
| 2008:10 | 0.861795 | 0.27912 |
| 2008:11 | 0.866116 | 0.277476 |
| 2008:12 | 0.871799 | 0.27745 |
| 2009:1 | 0.876287 | 0.277385 |
| 2009:2 | 0.881504 | 0.278365 |
| 2009:3 | 0.884209 | 0.278967 |
| 2009:4 | 0.885779 | 0.279664 |
| 2009:5 | 0.88519 | 0.279615 |
| 2009:6 | 0.880442 | 0.271098 |
| 2009:7 | 0.875424 | 0.264005 |
| 2009:8 | 0.876221 | 0.266043 |
| 2009:9 | 0.877347 | 0.264666 |
| 2009:10 | 0.875914 | 0.261318 |
| 2009:11 | 0.875863 | 0.259374 |
| 2009:12 | 0.876185 | 0.259505 |
| 2010:1 | 0.876555 | 0.26021 |
| 2010:2 | 0.877721 | 0.261287 |
| 2010:3 | 0.880311 | 0.262112 |
| 2010:4 | 0.878443 | 0.26416 |
| 2010:5 | 0.872374 | 0.269665 |
| 2010:6 | 0.86654 | 0.277261 |
| 2010:7 | 0.864832 | 0.287228 |
| 2010:8 | 0.868508 | 0.30177 |
| 2010:9 | 0.872529 | 0.309802 |
| 2010:10 | 0.878519 | 0.315776 |
| 2010:11 | 0.880559 | 0.318673 |
| 2010:12 | 0.879193 | 0.319313 |
| 2011:1 | 0.87773 | 0.320261 |
| 2011:2 | 0.87931 | 0.32229 |
| 2011:3 | 0.884778 | 0.322213 |
| 2011:4 | 0.890016 | 0.321961 |
| 2011:5 | 0.895595 | 0.321571 |
| 2011:6 | 0.897477 | 0.322859 |
| 2011:7 | 0.895468 | 0.324381 |
| 2011:8 | 0.890667 | 0.32734 |
| 2011:9 | 0.884511 | 0.330617 |
| 2011:10 | 0.876649 | 0.335225 |
| 2011:11 | 0.873441 | 0.334407 |
| 2011:12 | 0.873581 | 0.335552 |
| 2012:1 | 0.875874 | 0.337783 |
| 2012:2 | 0.878524 | 0.338489 |
| 2012:3 | 0.88209 | 0.337327 |
| 2012:4 | 0.886684 | 0.335474 |
| 2012:5 | 0.89106 | 0.332355 |
| 2012:6 | 0.890069 | 0.328183 |
| 2012:7 | 0.885028 | 0.327011 |
| 2012:8 | 0.879882 | 0.325359 |
| 2012:9 | 0.876602 | 0.326915 |
| 2012:10 | 0.874538 | 0.330133 |
| 2012:11 | 0.872045 | 0.333497 |
| 2012:12 | 0.871405 | 0.337703 |
| 2013:1 | 0.870579 | 0.339215 |
| 2013:2 | 0.870854 | 0.336128 |
| 2013:3 | 0.874083 | 0.33642 |
| 2013:4 | 0.875705 | 0.33723 |
| 2013:5 | 0.875587 | 0.335771 |
| 2013:6 | 0.874189 | 0.336133 |
| 2013:7 | 0.870204 | 0.333952 |
| 2013:8 | 0.86652 | 0.331286 |
| 2013:9 | 0.863859 | 0.328718 |
| 2013:10 | 0.860848 | 0.325446 |
| 2013:11 | 0.859181 | 0.323306 |
| 2013:12 | 0.856426 | 0.322966 |
| 2014:1 | 0.855089 | 0.323987 |
| 2014:2 | 0.855396 | 0.326353 |
| 2014:3 | 0.849808 | 0.326001 |
| 2014:4 | 0.844035 | 0.324048 |
| 2014:5 | 0.844004 | 0.323933 |
| 2014:6 | 0.847352 | 0.325649 |
| 2014:7 | 0.848804 | 0.327125 |
| 2014:8 | 0.850149 | 0.328793 |
| 2014:9 | 0.849585 | 0.328016 |
| 2014:10 | 0.849174 | 0.329258 |
| 2014:11 | 0.8473 | 0.330061 |
| 2014:12 | 0.844807 | 0.331791 |
| 2015:1 | 0.84081 | 0.333672 |
| 2015:2 | 0.838287 | 0.337513 |
| 2015:3 | 0.836893 | 0.342313 |
| 2015:4 | 0.834727 | 0.346801 |
| 2015:5 | 0.831426 | 0.348098 |
| 2015:6 | 0.833381 | 0.348564 |
| 2015:7 | 0.838206 | 0.350709 |
| 2015:8 | 0.843208 | 0.35211 |
| 2015:9 | 0.848652 | 0.353515 |
| 2015:10 | 0.852137 | 0.353704 |
| 2015:11 | 0.854027 | 0.35263 |
| 2015:12 | 0.854845 | 0.352055 |
| 2016:1 | 0.853756 | 0.350038 |
| 2016:2 | 0.851134 | 0.347734 |
| 2016:3 | 0.848187 | 0.345746 |
| 2016:4 | 0.846696 | 0.344806 |
| 2016:5 | 0.846774 | 0.343192 |
| 2016:6 | 0.846021 | 0.342367 |
| 2016:7 | 0.843242 | 0.340083 |
| 2016:8 | 0.839637 | 0.336279 |
| 2016:9 | 0.835907 | 0.331929 |
| 2016:10 | 0.832511 | 0.327212 |
| 2016:11 | 0.830942 | 0.324011 |
| 2016:12 | 0.829581 | 0.321383 |
| 2017:1 | 0.828902 | 0.320108 |
| 2017:2 | 0.82987 | 0.319558 |
| 2017:3 | 0.83222 | 0.319611 |
| 2017:4 | 0.834632 | 0.318522 |
| 2017:5 | 0.836288 | 0.318767 |
| 2017:6 | 0.83628 | 0.319239 |
| 2017:7 | 0.832439 | 0.31763 |
| 2017:8 | 0.826731 | 0.314468 |
| 2017:9 | 0.821196 | 0.31205 |
| 2017:10 | 0.81711 | 0.309633 |
| 2017:11 | 0.814773 | 0.308074 |
| 2017:12 | 0.814249 | 0.306113 |
| 2018:1 | 0.815204 | 0.305567 |
| 2018:2 | 0.817489 | 0.307243 |
| 2018:3 | 0.820214 | 0.308521 |
| 2018:4 | 0.82263 | 0.308475 |
| 2018:5 | 0.825228 | 0.307891 |
| 2018:6 | 0.816356 | 0.310139 |
Note: U.S. recessions shown are January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.
Source: updated by the authors following procedure in Ahn and Hamilton (forthcoming).
Figure 5: Monthly number of newly unemployed individuals of each type (million workers), 1978:1-2018:6
| Period | W_L | W_H | mean(W_L) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1978:1 | 0.477384 | 2.349539 | 0.724764 |
| 1978:2 | 0.452373 | 2.361779 | 0.724764 |
| 1978:3 | 0.430884 | 2.379464 | 0.724764 |
| 1978:4 | 0.415753 | 2.390274 | 0.724764 |
| 1978:5 | 0.42136 | 2.4156 | 0.724764 |
| 1978:6 | 0.425873 | 2.429098 | 0.724764 |
| 1978:7 | 0.443519 | 2.457032 | 0.724764 |
| 1978:8 | 0.424254 | 2.448439 | 0.724764 |
| 1978:9 | 0.423161 | 2.449665 | 0.724764 |
| 1978:10 | 0.428117 | 2.447638 | 0.724764 |
| 1978:11 | 0.446384 | 2.463545 | 0.724764 |
| 1978:12 | 0.446666 | 2.471379 | 0.724764 |
| 1979:1 | 0.424927 | 2.462397 | 0.724764 |
| 1979:2 | 0.418743 | 2.469091 | 0.724764 |
| 1979:3 | 0.408271 | 2.471968 | 0.724764 |
| 1979:4 | 0.40469 | 2.481134 | 0.724764 |
| 1979:5 | 0.400934 | 2.48217 | 0.724764 |
| 1979:6 | 0.415982 | 2.506964 | 0.724764 |
| 1979:7 | 0.433441 | 2.52027 | 0.724764 |
| 1979:8 | 0.482571 | 2.554804 | 0.724764 |
| 1979:9 | 0.47757 | 2.53049 | 0.724764 |
| 1979:10 | 0.493771 | 2.521307 | 0.724764 |
| 1979:11 | 0.525039 | 2.522564 | 0.724764 |
| 1979:12 | 0.55389 | 2.530357 | 0.724764 |
| 1980:1 | 0.593474 | 2.558379 | 0.724764 |
| 1980:2 | 0.611267 | 2.575212 | 0.724764 |
| 1980:3 | 0.65383 | 2.605251 | 0.724764 |
| 1980:4 | 0.73846 | 2.665421 | 0.724764 |
| 1980:5 | 0.795793 | 2.716328 | 0.724764 |
| 1980:6 | 0.770408 | 2.694846 | 0.724764 |
| 1980:7 | 0.747183 | 2.672175 | 0.724764 |
| 1980:8 | 0.723544 | 2.643867 | 0.724764 |
| 1980:9 | 0.686648 | 2.604004 | 0.724764 |
| 1980:10 | 0.653414 | 2.582207 | 0.724764 |
| 1980:11 | 0.631317 | 2.558989 | 0.724764 |
| 1980:12 | 0.645112 | 2.563019 | 0.724764 |
| 1981:1 | 0.673706 | 2.589713 | 0.724764 |
| 1981:2 | 0.679965 | 2.604023 | 0.724764 |
| 1981:3 | 0.690714 | 2.619574 | 0.724764 |
| 1981:4 | 0.683714 | 2.626685 | 0.724764 |
| 1981:5 | 0.683871 | 2.642099 | 0.724764 |
| 1981:6 | 0.692055 | 2.65183 | 0.724764 |
| 1981:7 | 0.705764 | 2.669164 | 0.724764 |
| 1981:8 | 0.731182 | 2.701704 | 0.724764 |
| 1981:9 | 0.775642 | 2.760951 | 0.724764 |
| 1981:10 | 0.823791 | 2.830975 | 0.724764 |
| 1981:11 | 0.864315 | 2.89926 | 0.724764 |
| 1981:12 | 0.87501 | 2.950402 | 0.724764 |
| 1982:1 | 0.854432 | 2.973431 | 0.724764 |
| 1982:2 | 0.849589 | 2.977034 | 0.724764 |
| 1982:3 | 0.883635 | 2.983793 | 0.724764 |
| 1982:4 | 0.926115 | 2.977997 | 0.724764 |
| 1982:5 | 0.947092 | 2.955096 | 0.724764 |
| 1982:6 | 0.940139 | 2.926088 | 0.724764 |
| 1982:7 | 0.95899 | 2.953111 | 0.724764 |
| 1982:8 | 0.952943 | 2.976257 | 0.724764 |
| 1982:9 | 0.935032 | 2.993768 | 0.724764 |
| 1982:10 | 0.908381 | 2.99716 | 0.724764 |
| 1982:11 | 0.882333 | 2.992857 | 0.724764 |
| 1982:12 | 0.859013 | 2.963918 | 0.724764 |
| 1983:1 | 0.831581 | 2.913321 | 0.724764 |
| 1983:2 | 0.834874 | 2.885393 | 0.724764 |
| 1983:3 | 0.801085 | 2.852844 | 0.724764 |
| 1983:4 | 0.769743 | 2.845854 | 0.724764 |
| 1983:5 | 0.733736 | 2.85427 | 0.724764 |
| 1983:6 | 0.728192 | 2.880705 | 0.724764 |
| 1983:7 | 0.697627 | 2.8965 | 0.724764 |
| 1983:8 | 0.660116 | 2.916017 | 0.724764 |
| 1983:9 | 0.630468 | 2.928953 | 0.724764 |
| 1983:10 | 0.57712 | 2.903313 | 0.724764 |
| 1983:11 | 0.540506 | 2.880357 | 0.724764 |
| 1983:12 | 0.525547 | 2.878194 | 0.724764 |
| 1984:1 | 0.502667 | 2.866835 | 0.724764 |
| 1984:2 | 0.488102 | 2.86601 | 0.724764 |
| 1984:3 | 0.469647 | 2.863386 | 0.724764 |
| 1984:4 | 0.452518 | 2.860132 | 0.724764 |
| 1984:5 | 0.442055 | 2.856756 | 0.724764 |
| 1984:6 | 0.452627 | 2.889071 | 0.724764 |
| 1984:7 | 0.455503 | 2.929288 | 0.724764 |
| 1984:8 | 0.44444 | 2.968637 | 0.724764 |
| 1984:9 | 0.405305 | 2.971224 | 0.724764 |
| 1984:10 | 0.413677 | 2.99553 | 0.724764 |
| 1984:11 | 0.423113 | 3.023031 | 0.724764 |
| 1984:12 | 0.40701 | 3.043003 | 0.724764 |
| 1985:1 | 0.409684 | 3.072891 | 0.724764 |
| 1985:2 | 0.40407 | 3.07644 | 0.724764 |
| 1985:3 | 0.408766 | 3.088618 | 0.724764 |
| 1985:4 | 0.409045 | 3.096245 | 0.724764 |
| 1985:5 | 0.405448 | 3.101348 | 0.724764 |
| 1985:6 | 0.396058 | 3.108302 | 0.724764 |
| 1985:7 | 0.392797 | 3.107242 | 0.724764 |
| 1985:8 | 0.389164 | 3.095181 | 0.724764 |
| 1985:9 | 0.391421 | 3.086335 | 0.724764 |
| 1985:10 | 0.385615 | 3.074104 | 0.724764 |
| 1985:11 | 0.380088 | 3.073705 | 0.724764 |
| 1985:12 | 0.364865 | 3.06983 | 0.724764 |
| 1986:1 | 0.360296 | 3.083381 | 0.724764 |
| 1986:2 | 0.380352 | 3.110732 | 0.724764 |
| 1986:3 | 0.396955 | 3.128066 | 0.724764 |
| 1986:4 | 0.406835 | 3.135097 | 0.724764 |
| 1986:5 | 0.400888 | 3.12391 | 0.724764 |
| 1986:6 | 0.376176 | 3.091535 | 0.724764 |
| 1986:7 | 0.381502 | 3.06592 | 0.724764 |
| 1986:8 | 0.411443 | 3.054481 | 0.724764 |
| 1986:9 | 0.422581 | 3.031873 | 0.724764 |
| 1986:10 | 0.416593 | 3.006859 | 0.724764 |
| 1986:11 | 0.401191 | 2.972078 | 0.724764 |
| 1986:12 | 0.404989 | 2.953069 | 0.724764 |
| 1987:1 | 0.418041 | 2.946445 | 0.724764 |
| 1987:2 | 0.402171 | 2.928783 | 0.724764 |
| 1987:3 | 0.36804 | 2.908794 | 0.724764 |
| 1987:4 | 0.346569 | 2.878976 | 0.724764 |
| 1987:5 | 0.356078 | 2.875162 | 0.724764 |
| 1987:6 | 0.351607 | 2.857578 | 0.724764 |
| 1987:7 | 0.349879 | 2.848959 | 0.724764 |
| 1987:8 | 0.351687 | 2.840004 | 0.724764 |
| 1987:9 | 0.353399 | 2.841755 | 0.724764 |
| 1987:10 | 0.336765 | 2.834035 | 0.724764 |
| 1987:11 | 0.330796 | 2.82201 | 0.724764 |
| 1987:12 | 0.33832 | 2.8177 | 0.724764 |
| 1988:1 | 0.320063 | 2.799615 | 0.724764 |
| 1988:2 | 0.305038 | 2.782743 | 0.724764 |
| 1988:3 | 0.303661 | 2.769252 | 0.724764 |
| 1988:4 | 0.315023 | 2.77042 | 0.724764 |
| 1988:5 | 0.32184 | 2.766442 | 0.724764 |
| 1988:6 | 0.325145 | 2.768356 | 0.724764 |
| 1988:7 | 0.30712 | 2.76169 | 0.724764 |
| 1988:8 | 0.303159 | 2.772789 | 0.724764 |
| 1988:9 | 0.307124 | 2.779799 | 0.724764 |
| 1988:10 | 0.313246 | 2.786212 | 0.724764 |
| 1988:11 | 0.307319 | 2.789689 | 0.724764 |
| 1988:12 | 0.288065 | 2.785352 | 0.724764 |
| 1989:1 | 0.282202 | 2.79521 | 0.724764 |
| 1989:2 | 0.296409 | 2.802948 | 0.724764 |
| 1989:3 | 0.306958 | 2.802664 | 0.724764 |
| 1989:4 | 0.315041 | 2.812252 | 0.724764 |
| 1989:5 | 0.307223 | 2.822842 | 0.724764 |
| 1989:6 | 0.316196 | 2.847873 | 0.724764 |
| 1989:7 | 0.30822 | 2.852927 | 0.724764 |
| 1989:8 | 0.295595 | 2.855114 | 0.724764 |
| 1989:9 | 0.298413 | 2.873623 | 0.724764 |
| 1989:10 | 0.29581 | 2.887245 | 0.724764 |
| 1989:11 | 0.295411 | 2.89626 | 0.724764 |
| 1989:12 | 0.301823 | 2.901523 | 0.724764 |
| 1990:1 | 0.305219 | 2.891854 | 0.724764 |
| 1990:2 | 0.323281 | 2.887263 | 0.724764 |
| 1990:3 | 0.341417 | 2.882047 | 0.724764 |
| 1990:4 | 0.346332 | 2.875582 | 0.724764 |
| 1990:5 | 0.336275 | 2.854967 | 0.724764 |
| 1990:6 | 0.354333 | 2.858354 | 0.724764 |
| 1990:7 | 0.373498 | 2.872531 | 0.724764 |
| 1990:8 | 0.394565 | 2.894753 | 0.724764 |
| 1990:9 | 0.403296 | 2.907851 | 0.724764 |
| 1990:10 | 0.425165 | 2.927352 | 0.724764 |
| 1990:11 | 0.457809 | 2.948565 | 0.724764 |
| 1990:12 | 0.489083 | 2.960918 | 0.724764 |
| 1991:1 | 0.532104 | 2.970274 | 0.724764 |
| 1991:2 | 0.561381 | 2.976798 | 0.724764 |
| 1991:3 | 0.569469 | 2.957922 | 0.724764 |
| 1991:4 | 0.572792 | 2.934984 | 0.724764 |
| 1991:5 | 0.599015 | 2.922993 | 0.724764 |
| 1991:6 | 0.59696 | 2.884063 | 0.724764 |
| 1991:7 | 0.607324 | 2.851935 | 0.724764 |
| 1991:8 | 0.631271 | 2.825127 | 0.724764 |
| 1991:9 | 0.663264 | 2.800267 | 0.724764 |
| 1991:10 | 0.696899 | 2.76952 | 0.724764 |
| 1991:11 | 0.732361 | 2.737285 | 0.724764 |
| 1991:12 | 0.767167 | 2.707825 | 0.724764 |
| 1992:1 | 0.777561 | 2.676552 | 0.724764 |
| 1992:2 | 0.772685 | 2.643621 | 0.724764 |
| 1992:3 | 0.787886 | 2.636938 | 0.724764 |
| 1992:4 | 0.782739 | 2.625651 | 0.724764 |
| 1992:5 | 0.790318 | 2.633436 | 0.724764 |
| 1992:6 | 0.809684 | 2.637583 | 0.724764 |
| 1992:7 | 0.829204 | 2.625138 | 0.724764 |
| 1992:8 | 0.83799 | 2.608559 | 0.724764 |
| 1992:9 | 0.838272 | 2.589705 | 0.724764 |
| 1992:10 | 0.83166 | 2.580045 | 0.724764 |
| 1992:11 | 0.806951 | 2.557418 | 0.724764 |
| 1992:12 | 0.781738 | 2.538437 | 0.724764 |
| 1993:1 | 0.786768 | 2.545079 | 0.724764 |
| 1993:2 | 0.801291 | 2.558317 | 0.724764 |
| 1993:3 | 0.788654 | 2.546804 | 0.724764 |
| 1993:4 | 0.798201 | 2.550776 | 0.724764 |
| 1993:5 | 0.798348 | 2.54988 | 0.724764 |
| 1993:6 | 0.773927 | 2.527691 | 0.724764 |
| 1993:7 | 0.76769 | 2.518455 | 0.724764 |
| 1993:8 | 0.762008 | 2.499029 | 0.724764 |
| 1993:9 | 0.776957 | 2.489232 | 0.724764 |
| 1993:10 | 0.786177 | 2.492487 | 0.724764 |
| 1993:11 | 0.742014 | 2.46882 | 0.724764 |
| 1993:12 | 0.749678 | 2.474859 | 0.724764 |
| 1994:1 | 0.790936 | 2.500365 | 0.724764 |
| 1994:2 | 0.768011 | 2.447574 | 0.724764 |
| 1994:3 | 0.783492 | 2.423732 | 0.724764 |
| 1994:4 | 0.804291 | 2.403308 | 0.724764 |
| 1994:5 | 0.794149 | 2.369463 | 0.724764 |
| 1994:6 | 0.811283 | 2.356552 | 0.724764 |
| 1994:7 | 0.822329 | 2.348049 | 0.724764 |
| 1994:8 | 0.784911 | 2.311087 | 0.724764 |
| 1994:9 | 0.764052 | 2.280597 | 0.724764 |
| 1994:10 | 0.730556 | 2.245596 | 0.724764 |
| 1994:11 | 0.736647 | 2.250105 | 0.724764 |
| 1994:12 | 0.743456 | 2.256004 | 0.724764 |
| 1995:1 | 0.766934 | 2.274701 | 0.724764 |
| 1995:2 | 0.765015 | 2.275813 | 0.724764 |
| 1995:3 | 0.755072 | 2.29089 | 0.724764 |
| 1995:4 | 0.758169 | 2.317702 | 0.724764 |
| 1995:5 | 0.761368 | 2.331726 | 0.724764 |
| 1995:6 | 0.766494 | 2.359132 | 0.724764 |
| 1995:7 | 0.741211 | 2.36417 | 0.724764 |
| 1995:8 | 0.744859 | 2.379522 | 0.724764 |
| 1995:9 | 0.757145 | 2.397931 | 0.724764 |
| 1995:10 | 0.750969 | 2.394851 | 0.724764 |
| 1995:11 | 0.752231 | 2.396527 | 0.724764 |
| 1995:12 | 0.727288 | 2.379904 | 0.724764 |
| 1996:1 | 0.711112 | 2.37065 | 0.724764 |
| 1996:2 | 0.704502 | 2.358546 | 0.724764 |
| 1996:3 | 0.706594 | 2.338794 | 0.724764 |
| 1996:4 | 0.70253 | 2.320652 | 0.724764 |
| 1996:5 | 0.723264 | 2.316499 | 0.724764 |
| 1996:6 | 0.72565 | 2.293836 | 0.724764 |
| 1996:7 | 0.724582 | 2.282082 | 0.724764 |
| 1996:8 | 0.718652 | 2.264998 | 0.724764 |
| 1996:9 | 0.719023 | 2.268043 | 0.724764 |
| 1996:10 | 0.726308 | 2.279692 | 0.724764 |
| 1996:11 | 0.753591 | 2.323381 | 0.724764 |
| 1996:12 | 0.73434 | 2.312135 | 0.724764 |
| 1997:1 | 0.738713 | 2.314455 | 0.724764 |
| 1997:2 | 0.707814 | 2.289654 | 0.724764 |
| 1997:3 | 0.676218 | 2.271029 | 0.724764 |
| 1997:4 | 0.657184 | 2.246611 | 0.724764 |
| 1997:5 | 0.661667 | 2.246629 | 0.724764 |
| 1997:6 | 0.661662 | 2.245994 | 0.724764 |
| 1997:7 | 0.64715 | 2.240211 | 0.724764 |
| 1997:8 | 0.635588 | 2.25423 | 0.724764 |
| 1997:9 | 0.619574 | 2.264938 | 0.724764 |
| 1997:10 | 0.605493 | 2.28902 | 0.724764 |
| 1997:11 | 0.575443 | 2.30439 | 0.724764 |
| 1997:12 | 0.562202 | 2.330169 | 0.724764 |
| 1998:1 | 0.561621 | 2.356789 | 0.724764 |
| 1998:2 | 0.571181 | 2.379386 | 0.724764 |
| 1998:3 | 0.590147 | 2.405416 | 0.724764 |
| 1998:4 | 0.588786 | 2.405557 | 0.724764 |
| 1998:5 | 0.585077 | 2.40953 | 0.724764 |
| 1998:6 | 0.560659 | 2.403889 | 0.724764 |
| 1998:7 | 0.553468 | 2.407196 | 0.724764 |
| 1998:8 | 0.55471 | 2.411075 | 0.724764 |
| 1998:9 | 0.5618 | 2.414917 | 0.724764 |
| 1998:10 | 0.573111 | 2.417636 | 0.724764 |
| 1998:11 | 0.563148 | 2.379846 | 0.724764 |
| 1998:12 | 0.581106 | 2.365363 | 0.724764 |
| 1999:1 | 0.577244 | 2.345648 | 0.724764 |
| 1999:2 | 0.57768 | 2.343989 | 0.724764 |
| 1999:3 | 0.565698 | 2.342414 | 0.724764 |
| 1999:4 | 0.569864 | 2.36254 | 0.724764 |
| 1999:5 | 0.549293 | 2.351113 | 0.724764 |
| 1999:6 | 0.548545 | 2.355251 | 0.724764 |
| 1999:7 | 0.556522 | 2.369311 | 0.724764 |
| 1999:8 | 0.547132 | 2.370875 | 0.724764 |
| 1999:9 | 0.539884 | 2.376924 | 0.724764 |
| 1999:10 | 0.516517 | 2.372731 | 0.724764 |
| 1999:11 | 0.513625 | 2.374694 | 0.724764 |
| 1999:12 | 0.537802 | 2.387354 | 0.724764 |
| 2000:1 | 0.539342 | 2.392624 | 0.724764 |
| 2000:2 | 0.536094 | 2.40258 | 0.724764 |
| 2000:3 | 0.545541 | 2.413905 | 0.724764 |
| 2000:4 | 0.52643 | 2.391528 | 0.724764 |
| 2000:5 | 0.525165 | 2.378251 | 0.724764 |
| 2000:6 | 0.537797 | 2.368397 | 0.724764 |
| 2000:7 | 0.534168 | 2.35524 | 0.724764 |
| 2000:8 | 0.527136 | 2.346313 | 0.724764 |
| 2000:9 | 0.532516 | 2.338753 | 0.724764 |
| 2000:10 | 0.545392 | 2.330913 | 0.724764 |
| 2000:11 | 0.565626 | 2.333928 | 0.724764 |
| 2000:12 | 0.577891 | 2.345952 | 0.724764 |
| 2001:1 | 0.606148 | 2.374961 | 0.724764 |
| 2001:2 | 0.65386 | 2.409577 | 0.724764 |
| 2001:3 | 0.667534 | 2.410779 | 0.724764 |
| 2001:4 | 0.711047 | 2.422116 | 0.724764 |
| 2001:5 | 0.732612 | 2.396305 | 0.724764 |
| 2001:6 | 0.771707 | 2.389988 | 0.724764 |
| 2001:7 | 0.805645 | 2.380252 | 0.724764 |
| 2001:8 | 0.875718 | 2.409174 | 0.724764 |
| 2001:9 | 0.923466 | 2.423741 | 0.724764 |
| 2001:10 | 0.978821 | 2.457074 | 0.724764 |
| 2001:11 | 0.997753 | 2.470155 | 0.724764 |
| 2001:12 | 0.981045 | 2.462044 | 0.724764 |
| 2002:1 | 0.975851 | 2.451159 | 0.724764 |
| 2002:2 | 0.993989 | 2.435516 | 0.724764 |
| 2002:3 | 1.014069 | 2.424322 | 0.724764 |
| 2002:4 | 1.005129 | 2.382682 | 0.724764 |
| 2002:5 | 0.98807 | 2.345749 | 0.724764 |
| 2002:6 | 0.963279 | 2.317272 | 0.724764 |
| 2002:7 | 0.960327 | 2.323122 | 0.724764 |
| 2002:8 | 0.963062 | 2.321144 | 0.724764 |
| 2002:9 | 0.951477 | 2.303719 | 0.724764 |
| 2002:10 | 0.959808 | 2.297386 | 0.724764 |
| 2002:11 | 0.986201 | 2.304562 | 0.724764 |
| 2002:12 | 1.000402 | 2.288983 | 0.724764 |
| 2003:1 | 1.013276 | 2.273184 | 0.724764 |
| 2003:2 | 1.031409 | 2.252774 | 0.724764 |
| 2003:3 | 1.054223 | 2.244648 | 0.724764 |
| 2003:4 | 1.067808 | 2.241883 | 0.724764 |
| 2003:5 | 1.070772 | 2.254295 | 0.724764 |
| 2003:6 | 1.047931 | 2.239261 | 0.724764 |
| 2003:7 | 1.040571 | 2.21317 | 0.724764 |
| 2003:8 | 1.039074 | 2.204206 | 0.724764 |
| 2003:9 | 1.009608 | 2.18288 | 0.724764 |
| 2003:10 | 0.974712 | 2.170413 | 0.724764 |
| 2003:11 | 0.93538 | 2.159161 | 0.724764 |
| 2003:12 | 0.909823 | 2.150963 | 0.724764 |
| 2004:1 | 0.907223 | 2.162951 | 0.724764 |
| 2004:2 | 0.889099 | 2.163302 | 0.724764 |
| 2004:3 | 0.882303 | 2.201692 | 0.724764 |
| 2004:4 | 0.872274 | 2.243289 | 0.724764 |
| 2004:5 | 0.859524 | 2.266855 | 0.724764 |
| 2004:6 | 0.860643 | 2.284846 | 0.724764 |
| 2004:7 | 0.856805 | 2.307314 | 0.724764 |
| 2004:8 | 0.819693 | 2.301167 | 0.724764 |
| 2004:9 | 0.818087 | 2.311249 | 0.724764 |
| 2004:10 | 0.803318 | 2.314833 | 0.724764 |
| 2004:11 | 0.787144 | 2.31075 | 0.724764 |
| 2004:12 | 0.791485 | 2.317573 | 0.724764 |
| 2005:1 | 0.79067 | 2.307978 | 0.724764 |
| 2005:2 | 0.791576 | 2.304094 | 0.724764 |
| 2005:3 | 0.774315 | 2.280402 | 0.724764 |
| 2005:4 | 0.797717 | 2.287862 | 0.724764 |
| 2005:5 | 0.818965 | 2.293685 | 0.724764 |
| 2005:6 | 0.809281 | 2.282128 | 0.724764 |
| 2005:7 | 0.793142 | 2.269444 | 0.724764 |
| 2005:8 | 0.801569 | 2.27301 | 0.724764 |
| 2005:9 | 0.815956 | 2.294272 | 0.724764 |
| 2005:10 | 0.809344 | 2.301876 | 0.724764 |
| 2005:11 | 0.788817 | 2.307284 | 0.724764 |
| 2005:12 | 0.735373 | 2.285805 | 0.724764 |
| 2006:1 | 0.703374 | 2.272201 | 0.724764 |
| 2006:2 | 0.701919 | 2.275711 | 0.724764 |
| 2006:3 | 0.7203 | 2.290081 | 0.724764 |
| 2006:4 | 0.71685 | 2.295271 | 0.724764 |
| 2006:5 | 0.71024 | 2.288935 | 0.724764 |
| 2006:6 | 0.731617 | 2.300766 | 0.724764 |
| 2006:7 | 0.734675 | 2.301002 | 0.724764 |
| 2006:8 | 0.71504 | 2.280737 | 0.724764 |
| 2006:9 | 0.710435 | 2.268295 | 0.724764 |
| 2006:10 | 0.707164 | 2.254108 | 0.724764 |
| 2006:11 | 0.707005 | 2.227962 | 0.724764 |
| 2006:12 | 0.734665 | 2.215752 | 0.724764 |
| 2007:1 | 0.740741 | 2.190968 | 0.724764 |
| 2007:2 | 0.739467 | 2.165825 | 0.724764 |
| 2007:3 | 0.726132 | 2.13351 | 0.724764 |
| 2007:4 | 0.728042 | 2.134323 | 0.724764 |
| 2007:5 | 0.729551 | 2.139768 | 0.724764 |
| 2007:6 | 0.735033 | 2.153733 | 0.724764 |
| 2007:7 | 0.750368 | 2.15982 | 0.724764 |
| 2007:8 | 0.798455 | 2.175724 | 0.724764 |
| 2007:9 | 0.814204 | 2.181143 | 0.724764 |
| 2007:10 | 0.810888 | 2.182272 | 0.724764 |
| 2007:11 | 0.832778 | 2.201104 | 0.724764 |
| 2007:12 | 0.838364 | 2.216863 | 0.724764 |
| 2008:1 | 0.841455 | 2.218502 | 0.724764 |
| 2008:2 | 0.862638 | 2.241172 | 0.724764 |
| 2008:3 | 0.891982 | 2.264871 | 0.724764 |
| 2008:4 | 0.92573 | 2.270248 | 0.724764 |
| 2008:5 | 1.018804 | 2.339779 | 0.724764 |
| 2008:6 | 1.017157 | 2.310783 | 0.724764 |
| 2008:7 | 1.066571 | 2.307303 | 0.724764 |
| 2008:8 | 1.164327 | 2.325439 | 0.724764 |
| 2008:9 | 1.239864 | 2.291042 | 0.724764 |
| 2008:10 | 1.353268 | 2.30358 | 0.724764 |
| 2008:11 | 1.453648 | 2.313841 | 0.724764 |
| 2008:12 | 1.556273 | 2.301261 | 0.724764 |
| 2009:1 | 1.686942 | 2.301159 | 0.724764 |
| 2009:2 | 1.742509 | 2.276465 | 0.724764 |
| 2009:3 | 1.785946 | 2.246342 | 0.724764 |
| 2009:4 | 1.763093 | 2.20192 | 0.724764 |
| 2009:5 | 1.691459 | 2.135789 | 0.724764 |
| 2009:6 | 1.651112 | 2.075767 | 0.724764 |
| 2009:7 | 1.657329 | 2.053786 | 0.724764 |
| 2009:8 | 1.597569 | 2.015643 | 0.724764 |
| 2009:9 | 1.553094 | 1.993199 | 0.724764 |
| 2009:10 | 1.546687 | 2.007981 | 0.724764 |
| 2009:11 | 1.500791 | 1.981187 | 0.724764 |
| 2009:12 | 1.477564 | 1.978767 | 0.724764 |
| 2010:1 | 1.453883 | 1.980165 | 0.724764 |
| 2010:2 | 1.398307 | 1.967546 | 0.724764 |
| 2010:3 | 1.378514 | 1.95788 | 0.724764 |
| 2010:4 | 1.378401 | 1.959173 | 0.724764 |
| 2010:5 | 1.372436 | 1.972757 | 0.724764 |
| 2010:6 | 1.378277 | 1.989737 | 0.724764 |
| 2010:7 | 1.355145 | 2.041939 | 0.724764 |
| 2010:8 | 1.289837 | 2.066681 | 0.724764 |
| 2010:9 | 1.273274 | 2.100603 | 0.724764 |
| 2010:10 | 1.241138 | 2.11265 | 0.724764 |
| 2010:11 | 1.228828 | 2.136885 | 0.724764 |
| 2010:12 | 1.173382 | 2.129769 | 0.724764 |
| 2011:1 | 1.12832 | 2.131425 | 0.724764 |
| 2011:2 | 1.079985 | 2.121531 | 0.724764 |
| 2011:3 | 1.063559 | 2.144023 | 0.724764 |
| 2011:4 | 1.05596 | 2.186085 | 0.724764 |
| 2011:5 | 1.060121 | 2.205415 | 0.724764 |
| 2011:6 | 1.079846 | 2.227187 | 0.724764 |
| 2011:7 | 1.060618 | 2.20737 | 0.724764 |
| 2011:8 | 1.082411 | 2.201268 | 0.724764 |
| 2011:9 | 1.10547 | 2.208491 | 0.724764 |
| 2011:10 | 1.075102 | 2.188235 | 0.724764 |
| 2011:11 | 1.05091 | 2.178371 | 0.724764 |
| 2011:12 | 0.999807 | 2.193279 | 0.724764 |
| 2012:1 | 0.940552 | 2.191039 | 0.724764 |
| 2012:2 | 0.939734 | 2.204521 | 0.724764 |
| 2012:3 | 1.001911 | 2.210859 | 0.724764 |
| 2012:4 | 1.023531 | 2.197288 | 0.724764 |
| 2012:5 | 1.02765 | 2.186208 | 0.724764 |
| 2012:6 | 1.036675 | 2.206387 | 0.724764 |
| 2012:7 | 1.018444 | 2.206002 | 0.724764 |
| 2012:8 | 1.017263 | 2.215249 | 0.724764 |
| 2012:9 | 0.990715 | 2.20311 | 0.724764 |
| 2012:10 | 0.980944 | 2.210921 | 0.724764 |
| 2012:11 | 1.007603 | 2.221388 | 0.724764 |
| 2012:12 | 1.033185 | 2.232616 | 0.724764 |
| 2013:1 | 1.021723 | 2.216507 | 0.724764 |
| 2013:2 | 1.01674 | 2.193787 | 0.724764 |
| 2013:3 | 0.947818 | 2.164741 | 0.724764 |
| 2013:4 | 0.933386 | 2.156409 | 0.724764 |
| 2013:5 | 0.961281 | 2.173725 | 0.724764 |
| 2013:6 | 0.954753 | 2.166793 | 0.724764 |
| 2013:7 | 0.937322 | 2.138427 | 0.724764 |
| 2013:8 | 0.941128 | 2.124096 | 0.724764 |
| 2013:9 | 0.951919 | 2.125602 | 0.724764 |
| 2013:10 | 0.959822 | 2.124062 | 0.724764 |
| 2013:11 | 0.909139 | 2.077345 | 0.724764 |
| 2013:12 | 0.885992 | 2.055842 | 0.724764 |
| 2014:1 | 0.892182 | 2.06764 | 0.724764 |
| 2014:2 | 0.867334 | 2.069943 | 0.724764 |
| 2014:3 | 0.853967 | 2.079005 | 0.724764 |
| 2014:4 | 0.843646 | 2.098373 | 0.724764 |
| 2014:5 | 0.83927 | 2.136494 | 0.724764 |
| 2014:6 | 0.806335 | 2.160218 | 0.724764 |
| 2014:7 | 0.794822 | 2.169862 | 0.724764 |
| 2014:8 | 0.764435 | 2.145241 | 0.724764 |
| 2014:9 | 0.775827 | 2.148129 | 0.724764 |
| 2014:10 | 0.753252 | 2.142513 | 0.724764 |
| 2014:11 | 0.726351 | 2.133553 | 0.724764 |
| 2014:12 | 0.732323 | 2.136274 | 0.724764 |
| 2015:1 | 0.754387 | 2.151282 | 0.724764 |
| 2015:2 | 0.763518 | 2.174237 | 0.724764 |
| 2015:3 | 0.751835 | 2.20119 | 0.724764 |
| 2015:4 | 0.698704 | 2.176489 | 0.724764 |
| 2015:5 | 0.677688 | 2.144921 | 0.724764 |
| 2015:6 | 0.682491 | 2.137944 | 0.724764 |
| 2015:7 | 0.647163 | 2.099597 | 0.724764 |
| 2015:8 | 0.639484 | 2.115569 | 0.724764 |
| 2015:9 | 0.618852 | 2.129103 | 0.724764 |
| 2015:10 | 0.623937 | 2.133935 | 0.724764 |
| 2015:11 | 0.635844 | 2.132495 | 0.724764 |
| 2015:12 | 0.620832 | 2.115957 | 0.724764 |
| 2016:1 | 0.618685 | 2.119156 | 0.724764 |
| 2016:2 | 0.640095 | 2.135146 | 0.724764 |
| 2016:3 | 0.6589 | 2.147015 | 0.724764 |
| 2016:4 | 0.641899 | 2.118972 | 0.724764 |
| 2016:5 | 0.661287 | 2.119927 | 0.724764 |
| 2016:6 | 0.666 | 2.106776 | 0.724764 |
| 2016:7 | 0.679892 | 2.117619 | 0.724764 |
| 2016:8 | 0.695338 | 2.14143 | 0.724764 |
| 2016:9 | 0.673581 | 2.133802 | 0.724764 |
| 2016:10 | 0.656276 | 2.128449 | 0.724764 |
| 2016:11 | 0.654836 | 2.127168 | 0.724764 |
| 2016:12 | 0.659673 | 2.136814 | 0.724764 |
| 2017:1 | 0.650919 | 2.138124 | 0.724764 |
| 2017:2 | 0.609804 | 2.104094 | 0.724764 |
| 2017:3 | 0.583 | 2.073161 | 0.724764 |
| 2017:4 | 0.566552 | 2.043162 | 0.724764 |
| 2017:5 | 0.571665 | 2.037808 | 0.724764 |
| 2017:6 | 0.562044 | 2.012198 | 0.724764 |
| 2017:7 | 0.586578 | 1.996019 | 0.724764 |
| 2017:8 | 0.606296 | 1.981382 | 0.724764 |
| 2017:9 | 0.622691 | 1.965854 | 0.724764 |
| 2017:10 | 0.646274 | 1.97302 | 0.724764 |
| 2017:11 | 0.652954 | 1.978866 | 0.724764 |
| 2017:12 | 0.650265 | 1.998109 | 0.724764 |
| 2018:1 | 0.641624 | 2.025833 | 0.724764 |
| 2018:2 | 0.605209 | 2.009432 | 0.724764 |
| 2018:3 | 0.571604 | 1.980454 | 0.724764 |
| 2018:4 | 0.55759 | 1.965324 | 0.724764 |
| 2018:5 | 0.569113 | 1.97878 | 0.724764 |
| 2018:6 | 0.585469 | 1.944386 | 0.724764 |
Note: U.S. recessions shown are January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.
Source: updated by the authors following procedure in Ahn and Hamilton (forthcoming).
Figure 6: Contribution of different factors to the decline in unemployment (%), 2014:1 to 2018:6
| U_{base} | U_{all} | W_L | W_H | P_L | P_H | RU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-01-01 | 6.691198 | 6.691198 | 6.691198 | 6.691198 | 6.691198 | 6.691198 | 6.59 |
| 2014-02-01 | 6.597344 | 6.588893 | 6.581367 | 6.598825 | 6.598744 | 6.60199 | 6.66 |
| 2014-03-01 | 6.498596 | 6.451753 | 6.460506 | 6.506354 | 6.476655 | 6.504026 | 6.68 |
| 2014-04-01 | 6.464056 | 6.358458 | 6.400141 | 6.486353 | 6.398181 | 6.46595 | 6.26 |
| 2014-05-01 | 6.402496 | 6.263156 | 6.313926 | 6.453956 | 6.299737 | 6.403023 | 6.26 |
| 2014-06-01 | 6.348042 | 6.176537 | 6.217267 | 6.424097 | 6.227813 | 6.351486 | 6.08 |
| 2014-07-01 | 6.29666 | 6.090841 | 6.122517 | 6.38669 | 6.167698 | 6.303915 | 6.16 |
| 2014-08-01 | 6.257396 | 5.986092 | 6.026562 | 6.33614 | 6.126437 | 6.26914 | 6.15 |
| 2014-09-01 | 6.231807 | 5.913002 | 5.959319 | 6.308825 | 6.096774 | 6.243506 | 5.94 |
| 2014-10-01 | 6.191837 | 5.817084 | 5.869918 | 6.264564 | 6.052179 | 6.205934 | 5.74 |
| 2014-11-01 | 6.167242 | 5.716167 | 5.785131 | 6.232878 | 6.016198 | 6.183684 | 5.79 |
| 2014-12-01 | 6.154786 | 5.639416 | 5.724106 | 6.219945 | 5.984335 | 6.175387 | 5.57 |
| 2015-01-01 | 6.109291 | 5.552258 | 5.653349 | 6.183527 | 5.908475 | 6.134781 | 5.7 |
| 2015-02-01 | 6.108901 | 5.523554 | 5.633905 | 6.200979 | 5.87184 | 6.143532 | 5.51 |
| 2015-03-01 | 6.097041 | 5.487907 | 5.598636 | 6.212006 | 5.824458 | 6.14393 | 5.47 |
| 2015-04-01 | 6.076297 | 5.380256 | 5.524459 | 6.18269 | 5.766237 | 6.13576 | 5.44 |
| 2015-05-01 | 6.053337 | 5.238845 | 5.442742 | 6.136682 | 5.700158 | 6.119275 | 5.5 |
| 2015-06-01 | 6.061662 | 5.15686 | 5.400786 | 6.13342 | 5.67678 | 6.130861 | 5.26 |
| 2015-07-01 | 6.05799 | 5.056006 | 5.332375 | 6.101578 | 5.663628 | 6.132394 | 5.22 |
| 2015-08-01 | 6.0502 | 5.003832 | 5.264538 | 6.094802 | 5.66613 | 6.12896 | 5.09 |
| 2015-09-01 | 6.063674 | 4.991172 | 5.210426 | 6.117418 | 5.707529 | 6.146822 | 5.04 |
| 2015-10-01 | 6.04429 | 4.967618 | 5.140438 | 6.103833 | 5.727285 | 6.128934 | 5.02 |
| 2015-11-01 | 6.030996 | 4.957839 | 5.090753 | 6.091403 | 5.754682 | 6.113988 | 5.05 |
| 2015-12-01 | 6.006381 | 4.920824 | 5.027319 | 6.056399 | 5.768763 | 6.087485 | 5 |
| 2016-01-01 | 5.992299 | 4.893644 | 4.9773 | 6.040951 | 5.783432 | 6.068857 | 4.93 |
| 2016-02-01 | 5.975558 | 4.878731 | 4.943867 | 6.033769 | 5.781671 | 6.046099 | 4.92 |
| 2016-03-01 | 5.958458 | 4.866033 | 4.924505 | 6.027084 | 5.76669 | 6.023128 | 5.04 |
| 2016-04-01 | 5.970635 | 4.838634 | 4.919038 | 6.025167 | 5.774549 | 6.031786 | 5 |
| 2016-05-01 | 5.985746 | 4.838264 | 4.9301 | 6.036379 | 5.786272 | 6.04275 | 4.71 |
| 2016-06-01 | 5.968145 | 4.808044 | 4.917223 | 6.009102 | 5.764152 | 6.022004 | 4.91 |
| 2016-07-01 | 5.959416 | 4.794984 | 4.920011 | 6.004039 | 5.741329 | 6.007853 | 4.85 |
| 2016-08-01 | 5.947913 | 4.785915 | 4.928673 | 6.008596 | 5.705118 | 5.987267 | 4.91 |
| 2016-09-01 | 5.939708 | 4.735878 | 4.923778 | 6.000734 | 5.662691 | 5.9678 | 4.96 |
| 2016-10-01 | 5.940969 | 4.670502 | 4.915701 | 5.998757 | 5.622539 | 5.95641 | 4.86 |
| 2016-11-01 | 5.946777 | 4.613503 | 4.912009 | 6.002781 | 5.587067 | 5.951977 | 4.65 |
| 2016-12-01 | 5.939629 | 4.561177 | 4.90213 | 6.001022 | 5.540478 | 5.936432 | 4.7 |
| 2017-01-01 | 5.940298 | 4.513716 | 4.894038 | 6.00429 | 5.50438 | 5.931903 | 4.78 |
| 2017-02-01 | 5.92994 | 4.421258 | 4.852632 | 5.973374 | 5.466284 | 5.918787 | 4.68 |
| 2017-03-01 | 5.921132 | 4.326558 | 4.800838 | 5.938581 | 5.441363 | 5.909171 | 4.48 |
| 2017-04-01 | 5.923128 | 4.243939 | 4.754289 | 5.913506 | 5.436732 | 5.908796 | 4.38 |
| 2017-05-01 | 5.939889 | 4.205556 | 4.729811 | 5.918129 | 5.452071 | 5.925212 | 4.28 |
| 2017-06-01 | 5.921908 | 4.135286 | 4.677219 | 5.880343 | 5.435381 | 5.908066 | 4.35 |
| 2017-07-01 | 5.912571 | 4.078675 | 4.652395 | 5.854548 | 5.413514 | 5.895932 | 4.33 |
| 2017-08-01 | 5.907748 | 4.020861 | 4.645847 | 5.835327 | 5.378748 | 5.884184 | 4.44 |
| 2017-09-01 | 5.889997 | 3.951499 | 4.639495 | 5.803495 | 5.318839 | 5.859662 | 4.2 |
| 2017-10-01 | 5.91611 | 3.932361 | 4.681057 | 5.829044 | 5.29182 | 5.878771 | 4.07 |
| 2017-11-01 | 5.91014 | 3.897961 | 4.698202 | 5.826752 | 5.235817 | 5.867611 | 4.12 |
| 2017-12-01 | 5.907785 | 3.875746 | 4.713155 | 5.837551 | 5.188595 | 5.859799 | 4.09 |
| 2018-01-01 | 5.888791 | 3.855006 | 4.706871 | 5.840211 | 5.136168 | 5.838129 | 4.15 |
| 2018-02-01 | 5.859478 | 3.796297 | 4.668468 | 5.80789 | 5.087056 | 5.811317 | 4.14 |
| 2018-03-01 | 5.865201 | 3.738831 | 4.63947 | 5.794561 | 5.080277 | 5.820128 | 4.07 |
| 2018-04-01 | 5.873771 | 3.689979 | 4.608935 | 5.787531 | 5.08527 | 5.829556 | 3.93 |
| 2018-05-01 | 5.873334 | 3.67389 | 4.583908 | 5.79046 | 5.091205 | 5.82832 | 3.75 |
| 2018-06-01 | 5.851564 | 3.610895 | 4.555978 | 5.748884 | 5.049997 | 5.810727 | 4.05 |
Figure 7: Actual and fitted rate of unemployment and counterfactual rate of unemployment if fraction of type L inflows into unemployment had remained fixed at 2014:1 level (%)
| Period | Published Unemployment Rate | UR_{model} | UR_{composition fixed} |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014:1 | 6.6 | 6.691198 | 6.691198 |
| 2014:2 | 6.7 | 6.588894 | 6.588894 |
| 2014:3 | 6.7 | 6.451461 | 6.457518 |
| 2014:4 | 6.3 | 6.357257 | 6.37444 |
| 2014:5 | 6.3 | 6.261961 | 6.294774 |
| 2014:6 | 6.1 | 6.176274 | 6.229348 |
| 2014:7 | 6.2 | 6.091838 | 6.174499 |
| 2014:8 | 6.2 | 5.988401 | 6.104109 |
| 2014:9 | 5.9 | 5.916594 | 6.067883 |
| 2014:10 | 5.7 | 5.822223 | 6.00324 |
| 2014:11 | 5.8 | 5.723481 | 5.934372 |
| 2014:12 | 5.6 | 5.64995 | 5.892734 |
| 2015:1 | 5.7 | 5.567388 | 5.835622 |
| 2015:2 | 5.5 | 5.544555 | 5.831787 |
| 2015:3 | 5.5 | 5.51577 | 5.817133 |
| 2015:4 | 5.4 | 5.416301 | 5.733072 |
| 2015:5 | 5.5 | 5.284013 | 5.623177 |
| 2015:6 | 5.3 | 5.210726 | 5.576724 |
| 2015:7 | 5.2 | 5.116323 | 5.506729 |
| 2015:8 | 5.1 | 5.066797 | 5.484424 |
| 2015:9 | 5.0 | 5.0531 | 5.503151 |
| 2015:10 | 5.0 | 5.025455 | 5.510828 |
| 2015:11 | 5.0 | 5.010057 | 5.529489 |
| 2015:12 | 5.0 | 4.966999 | 5.513039 |
| 2016:1 | 4.9 | 4.935271 | 5.50544 |
| 2016:2 | 4.9 | 4.919064 | 5.509063 |
| 2016:3 | 5.0 | 4.908327 | 5.510175 |
| 2016:4 | 5.0 | 4.884367 | 5.49393 |
| 2016:5 | 4.7 | 4.886514 | 5.503165 |
| 2016:6 | 4.9 | 4.858972 | 5.473673 |
| 2016:7 | 4.9 | 4.85053 | 5.458665 |
| 2016:8 | 4.9 | 4.848285 | 5.444889 |
| 2016:9 | 5.0 | 4.806881 | 5.389244 |
| 2016:10 | 4.9 | 4.751666 | 5.323955 |
| 2016:11 | 4.6 | 4.705562 | 5.272974 |
| 2016:12 | 4.7 | 4.664411 | 5.227024 |
| 2017:1 | 4.8 | 4.628066 | 5.186791 |
| 2017:2 | 4.7 | 4.545108 | 5.102074 |
| 2017:3 | 4.5 | 4.457953 | 5.021354 |
| 2017:4 | 4.4 | 4.381016 | 4.957541 |
| 2017:5 | 4.3 | 4.34723 | 4.939604 |
| 2017:6 | 4.3 | 4.280702 | 4.882084 |
| 2017:7 | 4.3 | 4.232338 | 4.83862 |
| 2017:8 | 4.4 | 4.188178 | 4.787738 |
| 2017:9 | 4.2 | 4.135953 | 4.716568 |
| 2017:10 | 4.1 | 4.137192 | 4.695805 |
| 2017:11 | 4.1 | 4.121489 | 4.650934 |
| 2017:12 | 4.1 | 4.116121 | 4.618649 |
| 2018:1 | 4.1 | 4.108359 | 4.589384 |
| 2018:2 | 4.1 | 4.058032 | 4.526335 |
| 2018:3 | 4.1 | 4.007727 | 4.477332 |
| 2018:4 | 3.9 | 3.964443 | 4.443992 |
| 2018:5 | 3.8 | 3.951242 | 4.443887 |
| 2018:6 | 4.0 | 3.899157 | 4.352393 |
Figure 8: Newly unemployed individuals who listed involuntary permanent separation as the reason (thousand workers), 1994:1 to 2018:6
| Period | Newly unemployed individuals who listed involuntary permanent separation as the reason |
|---|---|
| 1994:1 | 690.9 |
| 1994:2 | 499.2 |
| 1994:3 | 498.2 |
| 1994:4 | 501.4 |
| 1994:5 | 381.3 |
| 1994:6 | 496.4 |
| 1994:7 | 536.3 |
| 1994:8 | 495.2 |
| 1994:9 | 464.4 |
| 1994:10 | 402.2 |
| 1994:11 | 480.9 |
| 1994:12 | 418.0 |
| 1995:1 | 596.5 |
| 1995:2 | 408.5 |
| 1995:3 | 439.5 |
| 1995:4 | 373.8 |
| 1995:5 | 447.5 |
| 1995:6 | 447.0 |
| 1995:7 | 470.7 |
| 1995:8 | 424.3 |
| 1995:9 | 438.0 |
| 1995:10 | 418.1 |
| 1995:11 | 466.7 |
| 1995:12 | 387.8 |
| 1996:1 | 509.6 |
| 1996:2 | 504.6 |
| 1996:3 | 429.3 |
| 1996:4 | 387.5 |
| 1996:5 | 449.1 |
| 1996:6 | 449.2 |
| 1996:7 | 482.2 |
| 1996:8 | 389.6 |
| 1996:9 | 321.9 |
| 1996:10 | 389.7 |
| 1996:11 | 467.8 |
| 1996:12 | 386.1 |
| 1997:1 | 546.4 |
| 1997:2 | 495.3 |
| 1997:3 | 424.3 |
| 1997:4 | 350.2 |
| 1997:5 | 404.8 |
| 1997:6 | 411.2 |
| 1997:7 | 319.0 |
| 1997:8 | 369.6 |
| 1997:9 | 337.7 |
| 1997:10 | 363.1 |
| 1997:11 | 391.2 |
| 1997:12 | 350.9 |
| 1998:1 | 531.6 |
| 1998:2 | 508.0 |
| 1998:3 | 465.4 |
| 1998:4 | 455.7 |
| 1998:5 | 439.7 |
| 1998:6 | 404.7 |
| 1998:7 | 447.4 |
| 1998:8 | 438.8 |
| 1998:9 | 388.4 |
| 1998:10 | 420.2 |
| 1998:11 | 393.1 |
| 1998:12 | 460.2 |
| 1999:1 | 470.6 |
| 1999:2 | 440.8 |
| 1999:3 | 428.6 |
| 1999:4 | 435.7 |
| 1999:5 | 466.2 |
| 1999:6 | 432.3 |
| 1999:7 | 418.1 |
| 1999:8 | 471.3 |
| 1999:9 | 442.4 |
| 1999:10 | 447.6 |
| 1999:11 | 370.6 |
| 1999:12 | 407.7 |
| 2000:1 | 476.0 |
| 2000:2 | 443.2 |
| 2000:3 | 449.8 |
| 2000:4 | 363.3 |
| 2000:5 | 405.4 |
| 2000:6 | 409.8 |
| 2000:7 | 404.4 |
| 2000:8 | 397.1 |
| 2000:9 | 424.5 |
| 2000:10 | 392.0 |
| 2000:11 | 336.3 |
| 2000:12 | 290.8 |
| 2001:1 | 448.2 |
| 2001:2 | 623.8 |
| 2001:3 | 473.9 |
| 2001:4 | 578.6 |
| 2001:5 | 564.7 |
| 2001:6 | 614.9 |
| 2001:7 | 515.9 |
| 2001:8 | 565.8 |
| 2001:9 | 641.0 |
| 2001:10 | 709.9 |
| 2001:11 | 767.0 |
| 2001:12 | 594.5 |
| 2002:1 | 830.4 |
| 2002:2 | 747.5 |
| 2002:3 | 641.3 |
| 2002:4 | 643.5 |
| 2002:5 | 635.1 |
| 2002:6 | 641.0 |
| 2002:7 | 569.4 |
| 2002:8 | 656.2 |
| 2002:9 | 648.9 |
| 2002:10 | 673.7 |
| 2002:11 | 684.7 |
| 2002:12 | 553.6 |
| 2003:1 | 672.0 |
| 2003:2 | 643.1 |
| 2003:3 | 610.0 |
| 2003:4 | 618.5 |
| 2003:5 | 662.0 |
| 2003:6 | 666.7 |
| 2003:7 | 659.1 |
| 2003:8 | 726.1 |
| 2003:9 | 641.5 |
| 2003:10 | 611.7 |
| 2003:11 | 549.1 |
| 2003:12 | 538.9 |
| 2004:1 | 608.1 |
| 2004:2 | 538.9 |
| 2004:3 | 593.0 |
| 2004:4 | 555.5 |
| 2004:5 | 593.2 |
| 2004:6 | 613.3 |
| 2004:7 | 593.4 |
| 2004:8 | 484.2 |
| 2004:9 | 578.1 |
| 2004:10 | 569.1 |
| 2004:11 | 509.7 |
| 2004:12 | 522.6 |
| 2005:1 | 561.7 |
| 2005:2 | 515.0 |
| 2005:3 | 477.5 |
| 2005:4 | 498.9 |
| 2005:5 | 495.3 |
| 2005:6 | 562.3 |
| 2005:7 | 540.7 |
| 2005:8 | 479.1 |
| 2005:9 | 519.6 |
| 2005:10 | 567.3 |
| 2005:11 | 465.9 |
| 2005:12 | 472.1 |
| 2006:1 | 472.7 |
| 2006:2 | 465.8 |
| 2006:3 | 575.1 |
| 2006:4 | 493.1 |
| 2006:5 | 494.8 |
| 2006:6 | 496.7 |
| 2006:7 | 492.8 |
| 2006:8 | 489.1 |
| 2006:9 | 461.6 |
| 2006:10 | 420.2 |
| 2006:11 | 425.3 |
| 2006:12 | 530.9 |
| 2007:1 | 423.1 |
| 2007:2 | 533.9 |
| 2007:3 | 430.3 |
| 2007:4 | 414.4 |
| 2007:5 | 431.2 |
| 2007:6 | 483.8 |
| 2007:7 | 511.8 |
| 2007:8 | 503.7 |
| 2007:9 | 492.5 |
| 2007:10 | 481.1 |
| 2007:11 | 497.0 |
| 2007:12 | 524.8 |
| 2008:1 | 510.6 |
| 2008:2 | 592.9 |
| 2008:3 | 596.3 |
| 2008:4 | 528.5 |
| 2008:5 | 674.9 |
| 2008:6 | 568.9 |
| 2008:7 | 605.4 |
| 2008:8 | 685.2 |
| 2008:9 | 658.5 |
| 2008:10 | 862.6 |
| 2008:11 | 897.6 |
| 2008:12 | 895.5 |
| 2009:1 | 1339.1 |
| 2009:2 | 1087.7 |
| 2009:3 | 1046.6 |
| 2009:4 | 995.0 |
| 2009:5 | 964.0 |
| 2009:6 | 931.5 |
| 2009:7 | 941.7 |
| 2009:8 | 839.2 |
| 2009:9 | 841.6 |
| 2009:10 | 899.3 |
| 2009:11 | 716.7 |
| 2009:12 | 812.9 |
| 2010:1 | 828.0 |
| 2010:2 | 741.4 |
| 2010:3 | 642.7 |
| 2010:4 | 691.2 |
| 2010:5 | 623.3 |
| 2010:6 | 673.8 |
| 2010:7 | 791.5 |
| 2010:8 | 652.5 |
| 2010:9 | 765.1 |
| 2010:10 | 673.0 |
| 2010:11 | 760.5 |
| 2010:12 | 591.7 |
| 2011:1 | 847.5 |
| 2011:2 | 588.5 |
| 2011:3 | 552.4 |
| 2011:4 | 577.6 |
| 2011:5 | 617.8 |
| 2011:6 | 759.0 |
| 2011:7 | 705.2 |
| 2011:8 | 637.1 |
| 2011:9 | 710.6 |
| 2011:10 | 661.8 |
| 2011:11 | 492.7 |
| 2011:12 | 680.0 |
| 2012:1 | 623.4 |
| 2012:2 | 605.5 |
| 2012:3 | 550.1 |
| 2012:4 | 518.8 |
| 2012:5 | 575.1 |
| 2012:6 | 628.6 |
| 2012:7 | 634.7 |
| 2012:8 | 679.9 |
| 2012:9 | 597.1 |
| 2012:10 | 543.3 |
| 2012:11 | 532.4 |
| 2012:12 | 598.3 |
| 2013:1 | 706.4 |
| 2013:2 | 662.8 |
| 2013:3 | 459.3 |
| 2013:4 | 506.9 |
| 2013:5 | 555.5 |
| 2013:6 | 516.7 |
| 2013:7 | 532.2 |
| 2013:8 | 645.0 |
| 2013:9 | 502.1 |
| 2013:10 | 584.3 |
| 2013:11 | 472.7 |
| 2013:12 | 472.4 |
| 2014:1 | 674.7 |
| 2014:2 | 531.8 |
| 2014:3 | 502.1 |
| 2014:4 | 458.4 |
| 2014:5 | 503.2 |
| 2014:6 | 506.7 |
| 2014:7 | 519.2 |
| 2014:8 | 557.5 |
| 2014:9 | 479.8 |
| 2014:10 | 499.0 |
| 2014:11 | 454.1 |
| 2014:12 | 479.7 |
| 2015:1 | 503.2 |
| 2015:2 | 412.2 |
| 2015:3 | 438.9 |
| 2015:4 | 504.8 |
| 2015:5 | 435.0 |
| 2015:6 | 414.1 |
| 2015:7 | 525.9 |
| 2015:8 | 427.4 |
| 2015:9 | 483.6 |
| 2015:10 | 519.3 |
| 2015:11 | 439.3 |
| 2015:12 | 429.3 |
| 2016:1 | 476.6 |
| 2016:2 | 444.6 |
| 2016:3 | 484.4 |
| 2016:4 | 522.4 |
| 2016:5 | 408.6 |
| 2016:6 | 478.6 |
| 2016:7 | 437.0 |
| 2016:8 | 455.0 |
| 2016:9 | 495.9 |
| 2016:10 | 423.2 |
| 2016:11 | 439.3 |
| 2016:12 | 417.3 |
| 2017:1 | 535.8 |
| 2017:2 | 529.5 |
| 2017:3 | 413.6 |
| 2017:4 | 348.2 |
| 2017:5 | 370.4 |
| 2017:6 | 452.2 |
| 2017:7 | 409.8 |
| 2017:8 | 407.7 |
| 2017:9 | 458.1 |
| 2017:10 | 395.5 |
| 2017:11 | 388.5 |
| 2017:12 | 450.7 |
| 2018:1 | 417.9 |
| 2018:2 | 527.1 |
| 2018:3 | 424.0 |
| 2018:4 | 329.7 |
| 2018:5 | 338.1 |
| 2018:6 | 455.0 |
Note: U.S. recessions shown are March 2001-November 2001 and December 2007-June 2009.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Last Update:
December 21, 2018