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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee

March 19-20, 2013

Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2013-15 and over the longer run

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2013 through 2015 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2008 through 2012.

Change in real GDP
Percent

  2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer Run
Actual (3.3) (0.1) 2.4 2.0 1.6 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.8 3.4 3.7 2.5
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.3 2.9 2.9 2.3
Lower End of Range - - - - - 2.0 2.6 2.5 2.0

Unemployment rate
Percent

  2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer Run
Actual 6.9 9.9 9.5 8.7 7.8 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 7.6 7.1 6.5 6.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 7.3 6.7 6.0 5.2
Lower End of Range - - - - - 6.9 6.1 5.7 5.0

PCE inflation
Percent

  2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer Run
Actual 1.7 1.4 1.5 2.5 1.6 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.0
Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.0

Core PCE inflation
Percent

  2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer Run
Actual 2.0 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.5 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.0 2.1 2.6 n.a.
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.6 2.0 2.1 n.a.
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.5 1.7 1.8 n.a.
Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.5 1.5 1.7 n.a.

Note: Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual.

Figure 2. Overview of FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy

Appropriate timing of policy firming

  2013 2014 2015 2016
Number of participants 1 4 13 1

Note: In the upper panel, the height of each bar denotes the number of FOMC participants who judge that, under appropriate monetary policy, the first increase in the target federal funds rate from its current range of 0 to 1/4 percent will occur in the specified calendar year. In December 2012, the numbers of FOMC participants who judged that the first increase in the target federal funds rate would occur in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 were, respectively, 2, 3, 13, and 1.


Appropriate pace of policy firming
Number of participants with projected targets

Target federal funds rate at year-end
(Percent)
2013 2014 2015 Longer Run
0 - 0.37 18 14 1  
0.38 - 0.62   1 7  
0.63 - 0.87     1  
0.88 - 1.12 2 2  
1.13 - 1.37      
1.38 - 1.62        
1.63 - 1.87   1    
1.88 - 2.12      
2.13 - 2.37        
2.38 -2.62        
2.63 - 2.87   1    
2.88 - 3.12      
3.13 - 3.37       1
3.38 - 3.62       2
3.63 - 3.87     1 1
3.88 - 4.12       9
4.13 - 4.37       3
4.38 - 4.62     1 3

Note: In the lower panel, each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/4 percentage point) of an individual participant's judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run.

Figure 3.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2013-15 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range 2013 2014 2015 Longer Run
March
projections
December
projections
March
projections
December
projections
March
projections
December
projections
March
projections
December
projections
2 - 2.1 1 2 0 0 0 0 2 0
2.2 - 2.3 4 2 0 0 0 0 10 10
2.4 - 2.5 4 5 0 0 1 1 6 8
2.6 - 2.7 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
2.8 - 2.9 3 3 2 3 3 2 0 0
3 - 3.1 2 1 2 3 1 2 1 1
3.2 - 3.3 0 0 7 7 2 1 0 0
3.4 - 3.5 0 0 5 3 7 7 0 0
3.6 - 3.7 0 0 0 1 4 4 0 0
3.8 - 3.9 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0
4 - 4.1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
4.2 - 4.3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

NOTE: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. 

Figure 3.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2013-15 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range 2013 2014 2015 Longer Run
March
projections
December
projections
March
projections
December
projections
March
projections
December
projections
March
projections
December
projections
5 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
5.2 - 5.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5
5.4 - 5.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 6
5.6 - 5.7 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
5.8 - 5.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
6 - 6.1 0 0 1 1 7 5 6 6
6.2 - 6.3 0 0 1 1 6 5 0 0
6.4 - 6.5 0 0 1 1 5 4 0 0
6.6 - 6.7 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0
6.8 - 6.9 1 1 7 4 0 2 0 0
7 - 7.1 1 1 7 7 0 0 0 0
7.2 - 7.3 4 1 0 3 0 0 0 0
7.4 - 7.5 11 9 0 2 0 0 0 0
7.6 - 7.7 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
7.8 - 7.9 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

NOTE: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Figure 3.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2013-15 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range 2013 2014 2015 Longer Run
March
projections
December
projections
March
projections
December
projections
March
projections
December
projections
December
projections
September
projections
1.3 - 1.4 9 7 1 2 0 0 0 0
1.5 - 1.6 4 4 6 5 2 3 0 0
1.7 - 1.8 5 2 4 3 2 3 0 0
1.9 - 2 1 6 7 8 12 10 19 19
2.1 - 2.2 0 0 1 1 2 3 0 0
2.3 - 2.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.5 - 2.6 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

NOTE: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. 

Figure 3.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2013-15

Histograms, three panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range 2013 2014 2015
March
projections
December
projections
March
projections
December
projections
March
projections
December
projections
1.5 - 1.6 16 7 1 4 0 0
1.7 - 1.8 2 7 10 5 5 7
1.9 - 2 1 5 7 10 10 9
2.1 - 2.2 0 0 1 0 3 3
2.3 - 2.4 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.5 - 2.6 0 0 0 0 1 0

NOTE: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. 

Figure 3.E. Distribution of participants' projections for the target federal funds rate, 2013-15 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range 2013 2014 2015 Longer Run
March
projections
December
projections
March
projections
December
projections
March
projections
December
projections
March
projections
December
projections
0 - 0.37 18 17 14 14 1 1 0 0
0.38 - 0.62 0 1 1 1 7 5 0 0
0.63 - 0.87 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0
0.88 - 1.12 1 1 2 0 2 3 0 0
1.13 - 1.37 0 0 0 0 4 2 0 0
1.38 - 1.62 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
1.63 - 1.87 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
1.88 - 2.12 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
2.13 - 2.37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.38 - 2.62 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
2.63 - 2.87 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
2.88 - 3.12 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
3.13 - 3.37 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
3.38 - 3.62 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1
3.63 - 3.87 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 3
3.88 - 4.12 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 5
4.13 - 4.37 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6
4.38 - 4.62 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 3

NOTE: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. 

Figure 4. Uncertainty and risks in economic projections

Histograms, eight panels. For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box "Forecast Uncertainty." Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Uncertainty about GDP growth
Number of participants

  Lower Broadly similar Higher
March projections 0 7 12
December projections 0 1 18

Uncertainty about Unemployment rate
Number of participants

  Lower Broadly similar Higher
March projections 0 7 12
December projections 0 2 17

Uncertainty about PCE inflation
Number of participants

  Lower Broadly similar Higher
March projections 3 10 6
December projections 2 10 7

Uncertainty about Core PCE inflation
Number of participants

  Lower Broadly similar Higher
March projections 3 10 6
December projections 2 10 7

Risks to GDP Growth
Number of participants

  Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside
March projections 8 11 0
December projections 13 6 0

Risks to Unemployment rate
Number of participants

  Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside
March projections 1 11 7
December projections 0 6 13

Risks to PCE inflation
Number of participants

  Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside
March projections 4 13 2
December projections 3 14 2

Risks to Core PCE inflation
Number of participants

  Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside
March projections 4 13 2
December projections 3 14 2

NOTE: For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box "Forecast Uncertainty." Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

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Last update: April 10, 2013