Accessible versions of figures in Part 1

Table data presented with the Monetary Policy Report submitted to the Congress on February 10, 2016, pursuant to section 2B of the Federal Reserve Act

Figure 1. Net change in payroll employment

3-month moving averages
Thousands of jobs

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Figure 2. Measures of labor underutilization

Monthly
Percent

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Figure 3. Labor force participation rate and employment-to-population ratio

Monthly
Percent

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Figure 4. Measures of change in hourly compensation

Quarterly
Percent change from year earlier

Monthly
Percent change from year earlier

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Figure 5. Change in business sector output per hour

Percent, annual rate

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Figure 6. Brent spot and futures prices

Series: Brent spot and December 2018 futures contracts prices

Horizon: January 12, 2012 to February 4, 2016

Description: The data are weekly averages of daily data and are plotted as two curves. Units are dollars per barrel. The curves largely move together for the entire duration, with futures staying relatively stable and spot prices experiencing more fluctuation. Both series decrease sharply at the end of 2014, followed by an increase at the start of 2015. There is a minor dip again in both series and a subsequent increase in early 2015. Both series gradually decline after this increase until the end of the time horizon.

The spot price series starts around 110 at the beginning of 2012. It climbs close to 125 by the first quarter and then decreases in the second quarter to below 100. In the third quarter of 2012, it grows back to around 110, where it remains through the end of year. From 2013 through the first half of 2014, the series fluctuates around 110, with a peak around 120 and a trough around 100. In the second half of 2014, the series declines dramatically from around 115 to just below 50. In the first quarter of 2015, the series increases steeply to 60 before making a slight drop to near 55. In the second quarter of 2015, the series increases to near 70, then declines to about 45 at the middle of the third quarter. From the beginning of the fourth quarter to the beginning of the first quarter of 2016, the series declines from about 50 to just under 30. The series then rebounds and ends at about 35 in the beginning of February.

The December 2018 futures contracts series starts just above 90 in 2012. It remains between 100 and just under 90 through the first half of 2014, with only minor fluctuations. Starting in the third quarter of 2014 until the first month of 2015, the series drops dramatically to about 70. It then increases to slightly over 75 in the first quarter of 2015 before dropping again back to 70. In the second quarter, the series increases to over 70 once more and then moves back down close to 70, before a steeper decline to about 60 occurs in the third quarter. The series then declines to just below 45 between the middle of the fourth quarter and the beginning of the first quarter of 2016. The series rebounds and ends just above 45 in the beginning of February.

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Figure 7. Change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures

Monthly
12-month percent change

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Effects of Movements in Oil Prices and the Dollar on Inflation: Figure A. U.S. dollar exchange rate: Broad nominal dollar

Series: Broad dollar index

Horizon: January 3, 2005 to February 4, 2016

Description: Daily data are plotted as a curve. The units are an index with January 3, 2005 equal to 100.

The broad dollar index series begins at 100 in 2005 and remains between 100 and 105 through 2006:Q1. The series then begins to decline gradually until it drops to about 88 in early 2008, then spikes to about 104 by the end of 2008. At the beginning of 2009, the series sharply drops back to about 96 but soon rebounds to just above 105. For the rest of 2009, the series declines sharply to a local minimum of about 93. The series increases to about 98 around the middle of 2010 and then steadily declines back to about 87 by mid-2011. The series steadily increases to around 95 by mid-2014, with two notable spikes and dips in late 2011 and mid-2012. The series rapidly increases to about 115 by January 2016, with one minor dip and rebound in mid-2015, and then dips to about 113 in February 2016, where it ends.

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Effects of Movements in Oil Prices and the Dollar on Inflation: Figure B. Effect of 10 percent appreciation on core PCE inflation

Series: Core PCE inflation's deviation from baseline following 10 percent dollar appreciation

Horizon: 12 quarters following the 10 percent appreciation shock

Description: Quarterly data are plotted as a curve. The units are deviation from the baseline core PCE inflation in percentage points at an annual rate.

The core PCE inflation impulse response series starts at about negative 0.3 basis points at zero quarters after the 10 percent appreciation. In the 12 quarters following the appreciation shock, the series initially dips to near negative 0.5, rises to just above negative 0.3 in the second quarter, and continues to rise gradually up through the remaining quarters to end just below 0.0.

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Figure 8. Non-oil import prices and U.S. dollar exchange rate

Monthly
12-month percent change

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Figure 9. Median inflation expectations

SPF expectations for next 10 years

Michigan survey expectations for next 5 to 10 years

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Figure 10. 5-to-10-year-forward inflation compensation

Series: Inflation swaps and TIPS breakevens

Horizon: January 2008 to February 2016

Description: Weekly data are plotted as two curves. Units are percent. Broadly speaking, the two curves tend to run parallel, with the inflation swaps series running a little higher than the TIPS breakeven series after 2011. The two series are largely indistinguishable between 2008 and 2011.

The inflation swaps series starts in January 2008 at approximately 2.75, spiking to approximately 3.25 at the end of the first quarter, declining to approximately 2.0 at the beginning of the fourth quarter, and spiking again to approximately 3.5 in mid-2009. The series continues to fluctuate between 2.50 and 3.25 from early 2010 through mid-2014. The series then sharply declines over the latter half of 2014 before rising to about 2.5 in mid-2015. The series continues to decline over the second half of 2015 and reaches a low of around 1.75 mid-January of 2016. The series ends a bit higher, just below 2 percent, on February 3, 2016.

The TIPS breakeven series follows a similar path, starting in January 2008 at approximately 2.7 and spiking to approximately 3.5 in late 2008 before sharply declining to approximately 2.0 by the end of 2008. The series continues to fluctuate between 2.0 and 3.0 from late 2009 through mid-2014, hitting two local minima at approximately 2.25 in mid-2010 and late 2011. The series then sharply declines over the latter half of 2014 before rising to a high of approximately 2.25 mid-2015. The series then mostly declines over the second half of 2015 and the beginning of 2016, reaching roughly 1.5 on February 4, 2016.

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Figure 11. Change in real gross domestic product, gross domestic income, and private domestic final purchases

Percent, annual rate

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Figure 12. Change in real personal consumption expenditures and disposable personal income

Percent, annual rate

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Figure 13. Wealth-to-income ratio

Quarterly

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Figure 14. Nominal house prices and price-rent ratio

Monthly
Index

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Figure 15. Household debt service

Quarterly

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Figure 16. Changes in household debt

Billions of dollars, annual rate

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Figure 17. Indexes of consumer sentiment and income expectations

Monthly

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Figure 18. Private housing starts and permits

Monthly
Millions of units, annual rate

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Figure 19. New and existing home sales

Monthly
Millions, annual rate

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Figure 20. Mortgage rates and housing affordability

Housing affordability index

Mortgage rates

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Figure 21. Change in real private nonresidential fixed investment

Percent, annual rate

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Figure 22. Selected components of net financing for nonfinancial businesses

Billions of dollars, monthly rate

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Figure 23. Corporate bond yields, by securities rating

Series: High-yield, Triple-B, and Double-A

Horizon: January 1997 to February 4, 2016

Description: Daily data are plotted as three curves. Units are percentage points. The behavior of all three curves follows a similar pattern.

The high-yield series starts at the beginning of 1997 at just under 10. The series declines to about 9 in early 1998 before increasing generally to about 13 by the end of 2000. The series then decreases, bottoming out around 7 in early 2005. It fluctuates in small increments around 8 before beginning to increase in mid-2007. In late 2008, the series jumps quickly, and it nearly reaches 20 in 2009. It then declines almost as quickly, landing near 7 in early 2012. After increasing slightly to almost 8 in mid-2012, the series resumes its fall, reaching below 6 in mid-2013. It then hovers between 6 and 7 until early 2015. From then until the beginning of 2016 the series climbs relatively steadily, ending around 8 on February 4, 2016.

The Triple-B series starts at the beginning of 1997 at about 7.5, and it fluctuates between about 6 and 8 until mid-2003, when it decreases generally to around 5. It gradually climbs back up to 7 by mid-2008 and then increases quickly, reaching near 10 later in that year. The series sharply declines throughout 2009, reaching about 6 by the end of the year; it then continues to decline more gradually, dipping below 4 near the end of 2012. The series then increases, reaching a little above 4 in early 2014 before falling to just above 4 by mid-2014. The series falls below 4 in early 2015 but returns to about 4.5 mid-2015 and to almost 4.75 at the end of 2015. The series declines slightly in 2016, ending around 4.5 on February 4, 2016.

The Double-A series starts at the beginning of 1997 at about 7. The series declines generally to about 5.5 in late 1998 before increasing generally to about 8 in mid-2000. The series then decreases generally to just above 4 in mid-2003. It remains between about 5 and 6 through the beginning of 2008. Then it increases quickly, reaching about 8.5 by late 2008. The series sharply declines through early 2009 and then continues to fall more gradually until it reaches about 2.5 by the end of 2012. The series increases through the beginning of 2014 to around 4 but then falls through January 2015 to just under 3. It then rises to about 3.75 mid-2015 and declines slightly over the second half of 2015, ending around 3.25 on February 4, 2016.

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Figure 24. Change in real government expenditures on consumption and investment

Percent, annual rate

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Figure 25. Federal receipts and expenditures

Annual
Percent of nominal GDP

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Figure 26. Federal government debt held by the public

Quarterly

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Figure 27. State and local employment and structures investment

Employment

Real structures

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Figure 28. Change in real imports and exports of goods and services

Percent, annual rate

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Figure 29. U.S. trade and current account balances

Quarterly
Percent of nominal GDP

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Figure 30. Yields on nominal Treasury securities

Series: 5-, 10-, and 30-year yields on nominal Treasury securities

Horizon: January 2000 to February 4, 2016

Description: Daily data are plotted as three curves. Units are percent. The curves follow similar patterns and rarely intersect.

The 5-year Treasury yield curve starts in 2000 near 6.5 and declines steeply to just above 2 in 2003. The series gradually increases over the next three years to roughly 5 in 2006, where it stays until dropping to around 1.5 in late 2008. The series increases in the beginning of 2009 to roughly 2.5, and it remains between 2 and 3 until declining and returning to close to 1 during 2010. The series rises back above 2 in early 2011 but falls again below 1 in late 2011, where it stays until mid-2013, when the series has its last sharp increase to roughly 1.5. The series generally stays between 1 and 2 between mid-2013 and its end in February 2016.

The 10-year Treasury yield curve starts in 2000 slightly above 6.5 but does not fall as steeply as the 5-year Treasury yield curve; it reaches a low of roughly 3.5 in 2003. The series gradually increases over the next three years to roughly 5 in 2006, once again at the same level as the 5-year Treasury yield curve. After 2007, the 10-year Treasury yield curve remains above the 5-year Treasury yield curve by roughly 1 percentage point. The curve drops below 2.5 in late 2008. The series then increases in the beginning of 2009 to nearly 4, and it remains between 3 and 4 until declining and returning to close to 2.5 during 2010. The series rises back above 3 in early 2011 but falls again below 2 in late 2011, where it stays until mid-2013. In mid-2013, the series has its last sharp increase to 2.75. The series generally hovers around 2 between mid-2013 and its end in February 2016.

The 30-year Treasury yield curve starts in 2000 slightly above 6.5 and gradually falls to just above 5.25 in early 2002, when the series stops. The series resumes in early 2006 at roughly 4.5 and hovers around this value until late 2008, when the series rapidly spikes down to 2.5. The series rises back above 4 in mid-2009, where it remains until declining to around 3.75 during 2010. The series rises back near 4.5 in early 2011 but falls below 3 in late 2011, where it stays until mid-2013. In mid-2013, the series has its last sharp increase to nearly 4. The series falls gradually to about 2.25 in early 2015, reaching a level close to the 10-year Treasury yield. The series then rises and hovers around 3 between mid-2015 and its end in February 2016.

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Figure 31. Yield and spread on agency mortgage-backed securities

Series: Yield and spread on agency mortgage-backed securities

Horizon: January 2000 to February 4, 2016

Description: Daily data are plotted as two curves. Units for the yield series are percent, and units for the spread series are basis points. The curves generally move in opposite directions from 2000 to 2007 and in a similar direction from 2008 to 2016.

The yield series starts in January 2000 at approximately 8 and declines to approximately 4.25 by mid-2003. The series then increases to approximately 6.25 by mid-2006 before declining to approximately 4 by early 2009 and approximately 2 by late 2012. The series increases again to approximately 3.75 by late 2013, and ends just below 3 in February 2016.

The spread series starts in January 2000 at approximately 125 and increases to approximately 175 by late 2002. The series declines to approximately 100 by early 2007, then spikes to approximately 275, where it remains throughout 2008 before declining to approximately 150 by mid-2009. The series fluctuates between 100 and 150 from late 2009 through early 2015, with a brief decline below 100 in late 2012. The series ends at approximately 100 in February 2016.

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Figure 32. Equity prices

Series: Dow Jones bank index and S&P 500 index

Horizon: January 1994 to February 4, 2016

Description: Daily data are plotted as two curves. Units for both series have been indexed to 100 based on their respective values on December 31, 2007. The curves follow a similar pattern.

The Dow Jones bank index series starts in January 1994 at approximately 30. The series increases to approximately 110 in 1998, after which it fluctuates between about 70 and 100 from 1999 through 2003. The series then increases to approximately 140 in early 2007 before falling sharply to approximately 20 in early 2009. The series gradually recovers over the next several years, rising to approximately 80 in mid-2015 before dropping slightly to approximately 65 in February 2016.

The S&P 500 index series starts in January 1994 at approximately 30. The series increases to approximately 100 in 2000 before falling to approximately 50 by the end of 2002. The series then increases to approximately 100 in early 2007, after which it sharply falls to approximately 50 in early 2009. The series increases over the next several years to around 140 in 2015 before dropping slightly to about 130 in 2016.

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Developments Related to Financial Stability: Figure A. Corporate bond spreads to similar-maturity Treasury securities

Series: High-yield spread and Triple-B spread

Horizon: January 1997 to January 2016

Description: Data are monthly and are plotted as two curves. Units are percent. The curves follow a similar pattern.

The high-yield spread series starts at the beginning of 1997 at around 3, generally rises to just over 7 by late 2000, and then falls to a bit below 3 in March 2005. The series fluctuates moderately until July 2007, when it begins a steep climb to a high of around 14.5 in November 2008 before quickly falling to around 3.8 in early 2011. In late 2011, the series jumps to around 6.2, then slowly falls to just under 3.5 in June 2014. The series rises through 2015 and ends at around 5.4 in January 2016.

The Triple-B spread series begins 1997 just below 1 and remains about flat until the end of 1998, when it begins to rise past 1.5. The series remains relatively flat before breaking 2 in May 2000. The series exhibits little movement until July 2002, when it begins to climb above 2.5, reaching 3 by October 2002 before falling to around 1.3 by January 2004. The series continues to fluctuate between 1 and 1.5 until August 2007, when it begins a steady increase that ends in December 2008 at around 6.5. The series then quickly falls to just under 2 by January 2010 and fluctuates around 2 until mid-2011. In August 2011, the series breaks 2 and rises to almost 2.9 by June 2012 before falling back below 2 in December 2013. The series begins rising again in early 2014 and finishes at approximately 2.5 in January 2016.

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Figure 33. Ratio of total commercial bank credit to nominal gross domestic product

Quarterly

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Figure 34. Profitability of bank holding companies

Quarterly
Percent, annual rate

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Figure 35. U.S. dollar exchange rate indexes

Weekly
July 1, 2014 = 100

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Monetary Policy Divergence in the Advanced Economies: Figure A. Two-year overnight index swap rates in selected advanced economies

Series: U.S., U.K., Japanese, and euro-area two-year overnight index swap rates

Horizon: January 2, 2013 to February 4, 2016

Description: Daily data are plotted as four curves. Units are percent. The U.S. and U.K. curves generally move in the same direction aside from a gradual decline in the U.K. curve in the second half of 2014. The Japanese curve remains relatively constant from 2013 to 2016 aside from a significant dip at the beginning of 2016. The euro-area curve gradually declines from 2013 to 2016, crossing below the Japanese curve in mid-2014.

The U.S. series starts at just below 0.2 in 2013, where it roughly remains until the middle of 2013:Q2. The series increases to just above 0.4 by the end of 2013:Q3, with one minor dip along the way, before declining to around 0.2 by the end of 2013. The series then gradually increases, with a few small dips along the way, to just above 0.6 by the end of 2014:Q3. At the beginning of 2014:Q4, the series drops sharply to about 0.4 and then rebounds to about 0.75 by the end of 2014. In 2015:Q1, the series dips to just above 0.5, rebounds to about 0.75, and dips back to around 0.6. Between the middle of 2015:Q2 and the end of 2015:Q3, the series gradually increases to about 0.75. It then drops to just above 0.45 in the beginning of 2015:Q4 before increasing rapidly to about 0.9 by the end of 2015. The series declines sharply to just below 0.55 in February 2016, where it ends.

The U.K. series starts at just above 0.4 in 2013. The series dips to about 0.3 in 2013:Q1, increases to just above 0.55 by the end of 2013:Q2, dips back before sharply increasing to around 0.6 by the end of 2013:Q3, and roughly remains in the 0.5 to 0.6 range until the end of 2013, when it shoots up to just below 0.8. The series rises to around 1.15 by the beginning of 2014:Q3, with a particularly sharp spike at the end of 2014:Q2. The series then declines to about 0.55, with notable fluctuations by the beginning of 2015. In 2015:Q1, the series increases to just above 0.8 and then dips back to about 0.6. The series steadily rises to about 0.9 by the beginning of 2015:Q3 and declines to about 0.65 by the beginning of 2015:Q4 before spiking to just below 0.8, dipping back to about 0.65, and rebounding back to around 0.8 in 2015:Q4. The series sharply declines to around 0.45 between January 2016 and February 2016, where it ends.

The Japanese series starts at just above 0.05 in 2013 and remains between just below 0.05 and just above 0.1 until the beginning of 2016. The series then declines sharply and reaches just below negative 0.15 in February 2016, where it ends.

The euro-area series starts at just above 0.1 in 2013, increases to 0.45 by the middle of 2013:Q1, and declines to just above 0.05 in the middle of 2013:Q2. The series then increases to just below 0.4 by the end of 2013:Q3, with one notable dip and rebound along the way. The series gradually declines with minor fluctuations to negative 0.35 between the end of 2013:Q3 and December 2015, crossing the Japanese series in the middle of 2014. In December 2015, the series spikes to negative 0.25 before declining to just below negative 0.4 by February 2016, where it ends.

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Monetary Policy Divergence in the Advanced Economies: Figure B. One-day changes in U.S. and German 10-year yields on ECB policy announcement days, 1999-2015

Series: U.S. and German 10-year yield changes

Horizon: ECB policy announcement days from March 1999 to April 2015

Description: The data are displayed as a scatterplot, with German 10-year yield changes on the x-axis and U.S. 10-year yield changes on the y-axis. The units are one-day changes measured in basis points. Each point represents the one-day change in U.S. and German 10-year yields on the day of a European Central Bank (ECB) policy announcement. The ranges of both the x- and y-axes are from minus 25 to plus 25.

The vast majority of data points are between negative 15 basis points and positive 15 basis points on both the x- and y-axes. A line of best fit travels from the bottom-left of the figure to the top-right, with an angle slightly below 45° against the x-axis. The correlation coefficient between the U.S. and German 10-year yield changes is 0.58.

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Figure 36. Equity indexes for selected foreign economies

Series: Japan, euro area, China, and emerging markets

Horizon: January 10, 2013, through February 4, 2016

Description: Weekly averages of daily data are plotted as four curves. Units for these series have been indexed to 100 based on their respective values on January 4, 2013. The series move roughly in the same direction, with China increasing above Japan, emerging markets, and the euro area between 2014:Q3 and 2015:Q2.

The Japanese series starts at about 100 in the beginning of 2013. The series increases to about 140 by the middle of 2013:Q2, dips to about 125, and increases back to around 140 by the end of the year. The series then decreases to just above 130 in January 2014 and remains around there until halfway through 2014:Q2, when it increases to about 150 before dipping to about 140 in the beginning of 2014:Q4, and increasing to about 160 by the end of 2014. The series increases steadily through the first half of 2015 and reaches just above 180 by 2015:Q3. Between the end of 2015:Q3 and the beginning of 2015:Q4, the series dips to about 160; it then rebounds to about 180 in the middle of 2015:Q4. The series then declines to about 160 in February 2016, where it ends.

The euro-area series starts at about 100 in the beginning of 2013, where it stays through the first half of the year before increasing gradually in the second half of the year to just under 120. The series remains at around 120 through the first half of 2014, dips slightly below 120 in 2014:Q3, decreases to about 110 in 2014:Q4, and increases to near 120 by the end of 2014. The series increases steadily to about 140 by the end of 2015:Q1 before decreasing back to just above 120 by the beginning of 2015:Q4 and rebounding to about 135 by the end of 2015:Q4. The series declines to about 120 in February 2016, where it ends.

The Chinese series starts at about 100 in the beginning of 2013, decreases to about 90 in the first half of the year, and increases back to near 100 in 2013:Q3, where it stays until the end of 2013. The series remains around 100 through the first half of 2014, then increases sharply to just above 140 by the end of 2014. In 2015, the series continues to increase even more dramatically, reaching a high just above 220 by the middle of 2015:Q2, above the Japanese, euro-area, and emerging markets series. The series then decreases sharply to just below 140 by the end of 2015:Q3 before rebounding to about 160 by the middle of 2015:Q4, where it remains through the end of 2015. The series sharply declines in the beginning of 2016 to just above 120 in February 2016, where the series ends.

The emerging markets series starts at about 100 in the beginning of 2013, gradually declines to just above 80 by the end of 2013:Q2, and steadily increases to just below 100 by the beginning of 2013:Q4. The series gradually declines to about 85 by the middle of 2014:Q1 before steadily increasing back to around 100 by the middle of 2014:Q3. The series then declines to about 85 by the end of 2014, where it remains until the beginning of 2015:Q2. The series increases to about 95 by middle of 2015:Q2, drops to just below 75 by the beginning of 2015:Q4, and rebounds to about 80 in the beginning of 2015:Q4. The series steadily declines to just above 65 in February 2016, where it ends.

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Figure 37. 10-year nominal benchmark yields in selected advanced economies

Series: U.S., U.K., German, and Japanese 10-year benchmark yields

Horizon: January 10, 2013 to February 4, 2016

Description: Weekly averages of daily data are plotted as four curves. Units are percent. The curves generally move in the same direction from 2013 to 2016, with Germany briefly dipping below Japan in 2015.

The series for the United States starts in January 2013 at about 1.9, dips close to 1.5 by mid-2013, and reaches near 3 around 2013:Q3 before decreasing and then rebounding back to about 3 in 2013:Q4. The series then starts to decrease, experiencing a few dips in an overall downward trend and reaching around 1.75 by the middle of 2015:Q1. The series increases to about 2.1 and decreases again back to around 1.85 by the end of 2015:Q1. The series climbs to close to 2.5 by the beginning of 2015:Q3 and fluctuates between about 2 and 2.3 until the end of 2015. The series declines to about 1.9 in early February 2016, where it ends.

The series for the United Kingdom starts in January 2013 at about 2, dips close to 1.5 by mid-2013, reaches near 3 around 2013:Q3, and decreases before subsequently rebounding to about 3 in 2013:Q4. The series then starts to decrease, experiencing a few dips in an overall downward trend and hitting a low point of around 1.5 by the middle of 2015:Q1. The series increases to about 1.75 and decreases again back to around 1.5 by the end of 2015:Q1. The series then climbs to close to 2 by the beginning of 2015:Q3 and fluctuates between about 1.75 to 2 until the end of 2015. The series declines to about 1.55 in early February 2016, where it ends.

The series for Germany starts at around 1.5 in January 2013. It increases slightly and then drops to about 1.2 by the beginning of 2013:Q2. The series then increases, reaching a high point of close to 2 by the end of 2013:Q3, and stays between about 2 and 1.75 through 2013. The series decreases at a steady rate from the beginning of 2014 onward, reaching its lowest point in April 2015 at slightly above 0. The series then increases back to almost 1 by the end of June 2015 before gradually declining to just above 0.3 in February 2016, where it ends.

The series for Japan starts slightly above 0.75 in January 2013, decreases to about 0.5 at the end of 2013:Q1, and increases back to around 0.75 in 2013:Q2. The series then stays fairly constant, decreasing gradually to about 0.25 by early 2015. Beginning in February 2015, it increases to almost 0.5, where it stays until June 2015. The series then gradually declines to just above 0 in February 2016, where it ends.

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Figure 38. Real gross domestic product growth in selected emerging market economies

Quarterly
Percent, annual rate

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Figure 39. Real gross domestic product growth in selected advanced foreign economies

Quarterly
Percent, annual rate

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