Home > Monetary Policy > Monetary Policy Report > MPR: June 21, 2016 > Part 1: Recent Economic and Financial Developments

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Accessible versions of figures in Part 1

Table data presented with the Monetary Policy Report submitted to the Congress on June 21, 2016, pursuant to section 2B of the Federal Reserve Act

Figure 1. Net change in payroll employment

3-month moving averages
Thousands of jobs

Period	Total nonfarm	Private
January 2009	-751.67	-761.67
February 2009	-729.67	-735.00
March 2009	-772.33	-773.67
April 2009	-737.33	-770.00
May 2009	-620.00	-633.67
June 2009	-502.33	-507.67
July 2009	-383.33	-331.33
August 2009	-337.00	-310.33
September 2009	-253.33	-211.67
October 2009	-210.33	-211.33
November 2009	-142.00	-140.67
December 2009	-162.00	-172.33
January 2010	-86.00	-75.00
February 2010	-106.67	-87.67
March 2010	40.67	28.67
April 2010	112.33	86.33
May 2010	309.33	136.00
June 2010	210.67	136.67
July 2010	106.33	106.33
August 2010	-79.00	113.00
September 2010	-52.00	112.33
October 2010	57.00	147.67
November 2010	109.33	153.67
December 2010	156.00	149.67
January 2011	84.33	97.33
February 2011	106.00	130.00
March 2011	151.67	176.33
April 2011	253.00	277.67
May 2011	214.67	243.33
June 2011	218.00	227.33
July 2011	126.00	171.00
August 2011	137.33	174.67
September 2011	141.00	201.33
October 2011	185.00	202.00
November 2011	198.00	213.33
December 2011	185.00	194.67
January 2012	230.33	248.00
February 2012	267.33	277.33
March 2012	278.00	281.67
April 2012	190.33	196.00
May 2012	143.00	152.33
June 2012	92.33	97.33
July 2012	115.00	120.67
August 2012	140.00	135.33
September 2012	171.33	171.33
October 2012	167.67	172.67
November 2012	154.00	171.67
December 2012	174.67	189.33
January 2013	194.00	202.33
February 2013	248.00	244.33
March 2013	212.00	216.67
April 2013	212.67	213.33
May 2013	181.67	189.33
June 2013	185.33	197.00
July 2013	168.00	186.67
August 2013	185.00	192.33
September 2013	198.00	194.33
October 2013	214.33	208.00
November 2013	221.67	220.67
December 2013	175.00	184.67
January 2014	174.33	182.67
February 2014	133.33	142.00
March 2014	209.00	205.33
April 2014	250.00	233.67
May 2014	265.00	252.67
June 2014	276.33	254.67
July 2014	250.33	242.00
August 2014	252.00	247.33
September 2014	245.33	237.33
October 2014	234.67	219.33
November 2014	272.33	250.33
December 2014	274.33	264.33
January 2015	281.33	272.33
February 2015	259.33	248.33
March 2015	190.00	185.33
April 2015	200.00	194.33
May 2015	202.67	195.67
June 2015	250.67	241.00
July 2015	259.33	242.33
August 2015	218.33	198.00
September 2015	192.00	176.67
October 2015	198.00	196.33
November 2015	241.33	248.33
December 2015	282.00	280.67
January 2016	239.67	231.00
February 2016	224.00	212.00
March 2016	195.67	181.33
April 2016	180.67	173.00
May 2016	115.67	107.33

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Return to text

Figure 2. Labor force participation rate and employment-to-population ratio

Monthly
Percent

Period	Labor force participation rate	Employment-to-population ratio
January 2002	66.46	62.68
February 2002	66.76	62.97
March 2002	66.64	62.81
April 2002	66.69	62.73
May 2002	66.73	62.86
June 2002	66.61	62.75
July 2002	66.54	62.68
August 2002	66.56	62.75
September 2002	66.73	62.95
October 2002	66.55	62.75
November 2002	66.37	62.47
December 2002	66.32	62.37
January 2003	66.37	62.49
February 2003	66.37	62.46
March 2003	66.28	62.38
April 2003	66.42	62.41
May 2003	66.36	62.30
June 2003	66.54	62.34
July 2003	66.21	62.13
August 2003	66.11	62.10
September 2003	66.07	62.05
October 2003	66.08	62.14
November 2003	66.13	62.27
December 2003	65.94	62.20
January 2004	66.10	62.33
February 2004	65.98	62.31
March 2004	66.03	62.21
April 2004	65.92	62.26
May 2004	65.96	62.27
June 2004	66.07	62.36
July 2004	66.10	62.46
August 2004	65.97	62.40
September 2004	65.83	62.29
October 2004	65.92	62.33
November 2004	66.02	62.49
December 2004	65.91	62.38
January 2005	65.84	62.38
February 2005	65.93	62.38
March 2005	65.88	62.45
April 2005	66.06	62.66
May 2005	66.14	62.75
June 2005	66.06	62.73
July 2005	66.08	62.80
August 2005	66.15	62.91
September 2005	66.15	62.82
October 2005	66.09	62.81
November 2005	66.05	62.72
December 2005	65.97	62.77
January 2006	66.01	62.91
February 2006	66.14	62.99
March 2006	66.15	63.05
April 2006	66.12	63.00
May 2006	66.13	63.08
June 2006	66.19	63.13
July 2006	66.13	62.99
August 2006	66.20	63.11
September 2006	66.11	63.12
October 2006	66.20	63.27
November 2006	66.29	63.30
December 2006	66.37	63.44
January 2007	66.40	63.31
February 2007	66.27	63.27
March 2007	66.25	63.33
April 2007	65.92	62.96
May 2007	65.95	63.03
June 2007	66.05	63.04
July 2007	65.98	62.90
August 2007	65.78	62.74
September 2007	66.00	62.91
October 2007	65.82	62.71
November 2007	66.04	62.93
December 2007	66.02	62.74
January 2008	66.23	62.93
February 2008	66.00	62.78
March 2008	66.06	62.70
April 2008	65.94	62.66
May 2008	66.11	62.51
June 2008	66.05	62.38
July 2008	66.05	62.23
August 2008	66.06	62.02
September 2008	65.95	61.90
October 2008	66.01	61.72
November 2008	65.85	61.36
December 2008	65.80	61.00
January 2009	65.69	60.56
February 2009	65.79	60.29
March 2009	65.56	59.85
April 2009	65.67	59.78
May 2009	65.72	59.57
June 2009	65.65	59.41
July 2009	65.50	59.31
August 2009	65.36	59.08
September 2009	65.09	58.74
October 2009	65.01	58.52
November 2009	65.00	58.57
December 2009	64.62	58.25
January 2010	64.81	58.45
February 2010	64.85	58.47
March 2010	64.92	58.51
April 2010	65.15	58.69
May 2010	64.88	58.63
June 2010	64.63	58.54
July 2010	64.61	58.51
August 2010	64.72	58.56
September 2010	64.61	58.49
October 2010	64.41	58.32
November 2010	64.56	58.25
December 2010	64.32	58.31
January 2011	64.21	58.34
February 2011	64.15	58.36
March 2011	64.17	58.43
April 2011	64.20	58.37
May 2011	64.13	58.34
June 2011	64.03	58.20
July 2011	63.96	58.21
August 2011	64.10	58.34
September 2011	64.20	58.39
October 2011	64.08	58.42
November 2011	64.10	58.57
December 2011	64.01	58.57
January 2012	63.71	58.45
February 2012	63.81	58.52
March 2012	63.79	58.55
April 2012	63.66	58.45
May 2012	63.74	58.53
June 2012	63.78	58.56
July 2012	63.67	58.47
August 2012	63.54	58.41
September 2012	63.65	58.67
October 2012	63.75	58.78
November 2012	63.63	58.71
December 2012	63.68	58.64
January 2013	63.62	58.55
February 2013	63.44	58.55
March 2013	63.28	58.51
April 2013	63.37	58.58
May 2013	63.37	58.62
June 2013	63.43	58.64
July 2013	63.34	58.72
August 2013	63.25	58.66
September 2013	63.27	58.68
October 2013	62.79	58.26
November 2013	63.01	58.63
December 2013	62.85	58.64
January 2014	62.89	58.76
February 2014	62.96	58.76
March 2014	63.17	58.96
April 2014	62.79	58.87
May 2014	62.80	58.88
June 2014	62.82	59.00
July 2014	62.93	59.04
August 2014	62.88	59.00
September 2014	62.84	59.10
October 2014	62.88	59.27
November 2014	62.87	59.23
December 2014	62.70	59.21
January 2015	62.88	59.31
February 2015	62.78	59.32
March 2015	62.74	59.31
April 2015	62.75	59.34
May 2015	62.83	59.39
June 2015	62.63	59.33
July 2015	62.63	59.34
August 2015	62.55	59.36
September 2015	62.42	59.26
October 2015	62.45	59.31
November 2015	62.51	59.36
December 2015	62.65	59.51
January 2016	62.73	59.65
February 2016	62.91	59.81
March 2016	63.02	59.87
April 2016	62.82	59.69
May 2016	62.59	59.65

Note: Both series are a percent of the population aged 16 and over.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Return to text

Figure 3. Measures of labor underutilization

Monthly
Percent

Period	Unemployment rate	U-4	U-5	U-6
January 2004	5.7	6.0	6.8	9.9
February 2004	5.6	5.9	6.6	9.7
March 2004	5.8	6.1	6.8	10.0
April 2004	5.6	5.9	6.5	9.6
May 2004	5.6	5.9	6.6	9.6
June 2004	5.6	5.9	6.6	9.5
July 2004	5.5	5.8	6.5	9.5
August 2004	5.4	5.8	6.4	9.4
September 2004	5.4	5.6	6.4	9.4
October 2004	5.5	5.7	6.5	9.7
November 2004	5.4	5.6	6.3	9.4
December 2004	5.4	5.6	6.3	9.2
January 2005	5.3	5.6	6.4	9.3
February 2005	5.4	5.7	6.4	9.3
March 2005	5.2	5.5	6.2	9.1
April 2005	5.2	5.4	6.1	8.9
May 2005	5.1	5.4	6.0	8.9
June 2005	5.0	5.3	6.0	9.0
July 2005	5.0	5.3	5.9	8.8
August 2005	4.9	5.1	5.9	8.9
September 2005	5.0	5.3	5.9	9.0
October 2005	5.0	5.2	5.9	8.7
November 2005	5.0	5.3	5.9	8.7
December 2005	4.9	5.1	5.8	8.6
January 2006	4.7	5.0	5.7	8.4
February 2006	4.8	5.0	5.7	8.4
March 2006	4.7	5.0	5.6	8.2
April 2006	4.7	5.0	5.5	8.1
May 2006	4.6	4.8	5.5	8.2
June 2006	4.6	4.9	5.6	8.4
July 2006	4.7	5.0	5.7	8.5
August 2006	4.7	5.0	5.7	8.4
September 2006	4.5	4.7	5.3	8.0
October 2006	4.4	4.6	5.3	8.2
November 2006	4.5	4.7	5.4	8.1
December 2006	4.4	4.6	5.2	7.9
January 2007	4.6	4.9	5.6	8.4
February 2007	4.5	4.8	5.4	8.2
March 2007	4.4	4.6	5.3	8.0
April 2007	4.5	4.7	5.4	8.2
May 2007	4.4	4.7	5.3	8.2
June 2007	4.6	4.8	5.5	8.3
July 2007	4.7	4.9	5.5	8.4
August 2007	4.6	4.9	5.5	8.4
September 2007	4.7	4.8	5.5	8.4
October 2007	4.7	4.9	5.6	8.4
November 2007	4.7	4.9	5.5	8.4
December 2007	5.0	5.2	5.8	8.8
January 2008	5.0	5.3	6.0	9.2
February 2008	4.9	5.1	5.9	9.0
March 2008	5.1	5.3	5.9	9.1
April 2008	5.0	5.2	5.8	9.2
May 2008	5.4	5.7	6.3	9.7
June 2008	5.6	5.8	6.5	10.1
July 2008	5.8	6.1	6.7	10.5
August 2008	6.1	6.3	7.1	10.8
September 2008	6.1	6.4	7.1	11.0
October 2008	6.5	6.8	7.5	11.8
November 2008	6.8	7.2	8.0	12.6
December 2008	7.3	7.7	8.4	13.6
January 2009	7.8	8.3	9.1	14.2
February 2009	8.3	8.8	9.5	15.2
March 2009	8.7	9.1	9.9	15.8
April 2009	9.0	9.4	10.2	15.9
May 2009	9.4	9.8	10.6	16.5
June 2009	9.5	10.0	10.8	16.5
July 2009	9.5	9.9	10.8	16.4
August 2009	9.6	10.0	10.9	16.7
September 2009	9.8	10.2	11.0	16.7
October 2009	10.0	10.5	11.4	17.1
November 2009	9.9	10.4	11.2	17.1
December 2009	9.9	10.4	11.3	17.1
January 2010	9.8	10.4	11.3	16.7
February 2010	9.8	10.5	11.3	17.0
March 2010	9.9	10.5	11.2	17.1
April 2010	9.9	10.6	11.3	17.1
May 2010	9.6	10.3	10.9	16.6
June 2010	9.4	10.1	10.9	16.4
July 2010	9.4	10.1	11.0	16.4
August 2010	9.5	10.2	10.9	16.5
September 2010	9.5	10.2	10.9	16.8
October 2010	9.4	10.2	11.0	16.6
November 2010	9.8	10.5	11.2	16.9
December 2010	9.3	10.1	10.9	16.6
January 2011	9.1	9.7	10.8	16.2
February 2011	9.0	9.6	10.6	16.0
March 2011	9.0	9.5	10.4	15.9
April 2011	9.1	9.7	10.5	16.1
May 2011	9.0	9.5	10.3	15.8
June 2011	9.1	9.7	10.7	16.1
July 2011	9.0	9.6	10.6	15.9
August 2011	9.0	9.6	10.5	16.1
September 2011	9.0	9.7	10.5	16.4
October 2011	8.8	9.4	10.3	15.8
November 2011	8.6	9.3	10.1	15.5
December 2011	8.5	9.1	10.0	15.2
January 2012	8.3	8.9	9.9	15.2
February 2012	8.3	8.9	9.8	15.0
March 2012	8.2	8.7	9.6	14.6
April 2012	8.2	8.8	9.6	14.6
May 2012	8.2	8.7	9.6	14.8
June 2012	8.2	8.7	9.6	14.8
July 2012	8.2	8.7	9.6	14.8
August 2012	8.1	8.6	9.6	14.6
September 2012	7.8	8.3	9.3	14.8
October 2012	7.8	8.3	9.2	14.4
November 2012	7.7	8.3	9.2	14.4
December 2012	7.9	8.5	9.4	14.4
January 2013	8.0	8.4	9.4	14.5
February 2013	7.7	8.2	9.2	14.3
March 2013	7.5	8.0	8.9	13.8
April 2013	7.6	8.1	8.9	14.0
May 2013	7.5	7.9	8.8	13.8
June 2013	7.5	8.1	9.1	14.2
July 2013	7.3	7.9	8.7	13.8
August 2013	7.3	7.8	8.6	13.6
September 2013	7.3	7.8	8.6	13.7
October 2013	7.2	7.7	8.6	13.7
November 2013	6.9	7.4	8.2	13.1
December 2013	6.7	7.3	8.1	13.1
January 2014	6.6	7.1	8.1	12.7
February 2014	6.7	7.1	8.0	12.6
March 2014	6.7	7.1	7.9	12.6
April 2014	6.2	6.7	7.5	12.3
May 2014	6.2	6.7	7.5	12.1
June 2014	6.1	6.5	7.3	12.0
July 2014	6.2	6.6	7.5	12.2
August 2014	6.2	6.6	7.4	12.0
September 2014	6.0	6.4	7.3	11.8
October 2014	5.7	6.2	7.1	11.5
November 2014	5.8	6.2	7.0	11.4
December 2014	5.6	6.0	6.9	11.2
January 2015	5.7	6.1	7.0	11.3
February 2015	5.5	6.0	6.8	11.0
March 2015	5.5	5.9	6.7	10.9
April 2015	5.4	5.9	6.7	10.8
May 2015	5.5	5.8	6.6	10.7
June 2015	5.3	5.7	6.4	10.5
July 2015	5.3	5.7	6.4	10.4
August 2015	5.1	5.5	6.2	10.3
September 2015	5.1	5.4	6.2	10.0
October 2015	5.0	5.4	6.2	9.8
November 2015	5.0	5.4	6.1	9.9
December 2015	5.0	5.4	6.1	9.9
January 2016	4.9	5.3	6.2	9.9
February 2016	4.9	5.3	6.0	9.7
March 2016	5.0	5.3	6.0	9.8
April 2016	5.0	5.3	6.0	9.7
May 2016	4.7	5.0	5.7	9.7

Note: U-4 measures total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the labor force plus discouraged workers. Discouraged workers are a subset of marginally attached workers who are not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. U-5 measures total unemployed plus all marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the labor force plus persons marginally attached to the labor force. Marginally attached workers are not in the labor force, want and are available for work, and have looked for a job in the past 12 months. U-6 measures total unemployed plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the labor force plus all marginally attached workers. The shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: December 2007-June 2009.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Return to text

Figure 4. Unemployment by race and ethnicity

Monthly
Percent

Period	White	Black or African American	Asian	Hispanic or Latino
January 2004	5.0	10.4	5.0	7.3
February 2004	4.9	9.7	4.5	7.4
March 2004	5.1	10.3	4.3	7.6
April 2004	5.0	9.8	4.7	7.1
May 2004	4.9	10.1	4.6	6.9
June 2004	5.0	10.2	4.6	6.6
July 2004	4.7	11.0	3.9	6.8
August 2004	4.7	10.5	3.7	6.8
September 2004	4.6	10.3	4.5	6.8
October 2004	4.6	10.8	4.9	6.8
November 2004	4.6	10.7	4.1	6.7
December 2004	4.5	10.7	4.2	6.6
January 2005	4.5	10.6	4.1	6.0
February 2005	4.6	10.9	4.3	6.3
March 2005	4.5	10.5	3.9	5.8
April 2005	4.4	10.3	4.2	6.4
May 2005	4.4	10.1	4.2	6.0
June 2005	4.3	10.2	3.6	5.7
July 2005	4.2	9.2	4.8	5.5
August 2005	4.2	9.7	3.7	5.8
September 2005	4.4	9.4	4.3	6.4
October 2005	4.4	9.1	3.2	6.0
November 2005	4.3	10.6	3.6	6.1
December 2005	4.2	9.2	3.8	6.1
January 2006	4.1	8.9	3.0	5.5
February 2006	4.1	9.5	3.0	5.4
March 2006	4.0	9.5	3.5	5.2
April 2006	4.1	9.4	3.9	5.5
May 2006	4.1	8.7	3.3	5.0
June 2006	4.1	8.9	3.1	5.2
July 2006	4.1	9.5	2.4	5.2
August 2006	4.1	8.8	3.0	5.3
September 2006	3.9	9.0	3.0	5.5
October 2006	3.9	8.4	2.8	4.8
November 2006	4.0	8.5	3.1	5.1
December 2006	3.9	8.3	2.5	5.0
January 2007	4.2	7.9	3.1	5.5
February 2007	4.1	8.0	2.6	5.1
March 2007	3.8	8.4	3.0	5.0
April 2007	4.0	8.3	3.5	5.6
May 2007	3.9	8.3	3.2	5.8
June 2007	4.1	8.5	2.7	5.5
July 2007	4.2	8.1	2.7	5.9
August 2007	4.2	7.6	3.5	5.5
September 2007	4.2	8.0	3.4	5.9
October 2007	4.1	8.5	3.8	5.7
November 2007	4.2	8.5	3.6	5.9
December 2007	4.4	9.0	3.7	6.3
January 2008	4.4	9.1	3.1	6.3
February 2008	4.4	8.4	2.9	6.2
March 2008	4.5	9.2	3.6	6.9
April 2008	4.4	8.6	3.5	7.1
May 2008	4.8	9.6	4.1	6.9
June 2008	5.0	9.4	4.2	7.6
July 2008	5.2	10.0	3.7	7.5
August 2008	5.4	10.6	4.5	8.0
September 2008	5.4	11.3	4.0	8.0
October 2008	5.9	11.4	3.9	8.8
November 2008	6.2	11.5	4.8	8.7
December 2008	6.7	12.1	5.1	9.4
January 2009	7.1	12.7	6.1	10.1
February 2009	7.6	13.7	6.7	11.3
March 2009	8.0	13.7	6.5	11.7
April 2009	8.1	15.0	6.8	11.4
May 2009	8.5	15.0	7.0	12.3
June 2009	8.7	14.8	7.9	12.1
July 2009	8.7	14.8	8.1	12.5
August 2009	8.9	14.8	7.6	13.0
September 2009	8.9	15.3	7.6	12.6
October 2009	9.2	15.8	7.6	12.8
November 2009	9.2	15.7	7.2	12.4
December 2009	9.0	16.1	8.4	12.8
January 2010	8.8	16.5	8.3	12.9
February 2010	8.9	16.1	8.2	12.7
March 2010	8.9	16.8	7.6	12.9
April 2010	9.0	16.6	7.0	12.5
May 2010	8.7	15.5	7.8	12.0
June 2010	8.6	15.2	7.4	12.3
July 2010	8.5	15.6	7.9	12.2
August 2010	8.6	15.9	7.3	12.0
September 2010	8.6	16.0	6.6	12.3
October 2010	8.6	15.6	7.2	12.3
November 2010	8.9	16.2	7.5	12.9
December 2010	8.5	15.5	7.2	12.9
January 2011	8.1	15.8	6.8	12.3
February 2011	8.1	15.5	6.7	11.8
March 2011	8.0	15.8	7.3	11.6
April 2011	8.1	16.5	6.5	11.9
May 2011	7.9	16.3	7.2	11.6
June 2011	8.1	16.2	6.5	11.5
July 2011	8.0	15.9	7.4	11.2
August 2011	7.9	16.4	7.2	11.2
September 2011	7.9	15.9	8.0	11.2
October 2011	7.9	14.6	7.4	11.3
November 2011	7.7	15.6	6.4	11.2
December 2011	7.5	15.4	6.8	11.1
January 2012	7.4	13.6	6.6	10.6
February 2012	7.4	14.0	6.2	10.8
March 2012	7.3	14.0	6.4	10.5
April 2012	7.4	13.3	5.3	10.4
May 2012	7.4	13.5	5.5	10.8
June 2012	7.3	14.4	6.0	10.9
July 2012	7.3	14.2	5.9	10.1
August 2012	7.2	13.8	6.0	10.1
September 2012	7.0	13.6	5.0	9.8
October 2012	6.9	14.1	4.9	10.0
November 2012	6.8	13.3	6.3	9.9
December 2012	6.9	13.9	6.6	9.7
January 2013	7.0	13.8	6.4	9.7
February 2013	6.8	13.9	6.0	9.7
March 2013	6.7	13.0	5.1	9.2
April 2013	6.7	13.2	5.3	9.1
May 2013	6.7	13.4	4.5	9.0
June 2013	6.6	13.9	4.7	9.0
July 2013	6.5	12.6	5.4	9.3
August 2013	6.4	12.9	5.2	9.2
September 2013	6.3	13.1	5.4	9.0
October 2013	6.3	12.9	5.3	9.1
November 2013	6.1	12.3	5.2	8.7
December 2013	5.9	11.8	4.1	8.4
January 2014	5.7	12.1	4.8	8.3
February 2014	5.8	11.9	5.9	8.1
March 2014	5.7	12.2	5.5	7.9
April 2014	5.3	11.5	5.8	7.4
May 2014	5.4	11.4	5.6	7.7
June 2014	5.3	10.8	4.8	7.6
July 2014	5.3	11.6	4.2	7.6
August 2014	5.3	11.5	4.6	7.4
September 2014	5.1	11.0	4.5	7.0
October 2014	4.9	10.8	5.0	6.8
November 2014	5.0	10.9	4.7	6.6
December 2014	4.8	10.4	4.2	6.5
January 2015	4.9	10.3	4.0	6.7
February 2015	4.7	10.3	4.0	6.7
March 2015	4.7	10.0	3.2	6.8
April 2015	4.7	9.6	4.4	6.9
May 2015	4.7	10.2	4.1	6.7
June 2015	4.6	9.5	3.8	6.6
July 2015	4.6	9.1	4.0	6.8
August 2015	4.4	9.4	3.5	6.6
September 2015	4.4	9.2	3.7	6.4
October 2015	4.4	9.2	3.5	6.4
November 2015	4.4	9.4	3.9	6.4
December 2015	4.5	8.3	4.0	6.3
January 2016	4.3	8.8	3.7	5.9
February 2016	4.3	8.8	3.8	5.4
March 2016	4.3	9.0	4.0	5.6
April 2016	4.3	8.8	3.8	6.1
May 2016	4.1	8.2	4.1	5.6

Note: Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. The shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: December 2007-June 2009.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Return to text

Have the Gains of the Economic Expansion Been Widely Shared?: Figure A. Prime-age employment-to-population ratio, by race

Monthly
Percent

Period	White	Black or African American	Asian	Hispanic or Latino
January 2003	80.4	73.6	76.4	74.7
February 2003	80.3	73.5	76.3	74.6
March 2003	80.3	73.5	76.1	74.5
April 2003	80.3	73.5	76.1	74.5
May 2003	80.2	73.4	76.1	74.4
June 2003	80.2	73.4	76.1	74.3
July 2003	80.1	73.5	76.0	74.2
August 2003	80.1	73.5	76.0	74.1
September 2003	80.0	73.4	75.9	74.0
October 2003	80.0	73.3	75.7	73.9
November 2003	80.0	73.3	75.6	73.9
December 2003	80.0	73.3	75.6	73.9
January 2004	80.0	73.3	75.6	73.9
February 2004	80.0	73.2	75.7	73.9
March 2004	79.9	73.2	75.9	73.9
April 2004	79.9	73.1	76.0	73.9
May 2004	80.0	73.0	76.1	74.1
June 2004	80.0	73.0	76.2	74.2
July 2004	80.0	73.0	76.2	74.5
August 2004	80.1	72.9	76.3	74.6
September 2004	80.1	73.0	76.5	74.7
October 2004	80.1	73.0	76.6	74.9
November 2004	80.2	73.0	76.8	75.1
December 2004	80.2	72.9	76.9	75.2
January 2005	80.2	72.9	76.9	75.2
February 2005	80.3	72.8	76.9	75.3
March 2005	80.3	72.8	76.9	75.4
April 2005	80.4	72.8	76.8	75.4
May 2005	80.4	72.9	76.8	75.4
June 2005	80.4	73.0	76.9	75.4
July 2005	80.4	73.1	76.9	75.4
August 2005	80.5	73.2	76.9	75.4
September 2005	80.5	73.4	76.9	75.4
October 2005	80.5	73.5	76.9	75.5
November 2005	80.5	73.6	76.8	75.5
December 2005	80.5	73.7	76.8	75.6
January 2006	80.5	73.9	76.8	75.6
February 2006	80.5	74.1	76.9	75.7
March 2006	80.6	74.3	77.0	75.8
April 2006	80.6	74.4	77.0	75.9
May 2006	80.6	74.4	77.1	76.0
June 2006	80.6	74.4	77.2	76.1
July 2006	80.7	74.3	77.4	76.2
August 2006	80.7	74.2	77.4	76.2
September 2006	80.7	74.1	77.6	76.3
October 2006	80.8	74.1	77.7	76.4
November 2006	80.9	74.2	77.9	76.5
December 2006	80.9	74.2	78.2	76.6
January 2007	81.0	74.4	78.4	76.7
February 2007	81.0	74.4	78.5	76.7
March 2007	81.0	74.4	78.5	76.8
April 2007	81.0	74.5	78.5	76.9
May 2007	81.1	74.6	78.6	76.9
June 2007	81.1	74.7	78.7	76.9
July 2007	81.1	74.8	78.7	76.9
August 2007	81.0	74.9	78.9	77.0
September 2007	81.0	75.0	78.8	77.0
October 2007	81.0	74.9	78.7	77.0
November 2007	81.0	74.9	78.7	77.0
December 2007	80.9	74.8	78.5	76.9
January 2008	80.9	74.7	78.5	76.8
February 2008	80.9	74.7	78.6	76.8
March 2008	80.8	74.7	78.7	76.6
April 2008	80.8	74.7	79.0	76.5
May 2008	80.7	74.7	79.0	76.5
June 2008	80.7	74.7	79.0	76.4
July 2008	80.6	74.7	79.0	76.3
August 2008	80.6	74.6	79.0	76.2
September 2008	80.5	74.4	79.0	76.0
October 2008	80.4	74.3	79.1	75.9
November 2008	80.3	74.1	79.0	75.7
December 2008	80.1	73.9	79.0	75.4
January 2009	79.9	73.6	78.7	75.2
February 2009	79.6	73.1	78.5	74.8
March 2009	79.4	72.6	78.2	74.5
April 2009	79.1	72.1	77.9	74.2
May 2009	78.9	71.6	77.7	73.8
June 2009	78.6	71.1	77.4	73.4
July 2009	78.4	70.6	77.1	73.1
August 2009	78.1	70.1	76.9	72.7
September 2009	77.8	69.7	76.7	72.4
October 2009	77.6	69.3	76.4	72.1
November 2009	77.3	69.1	76.2	71.8
December 2009	77.1	68.8	76.0	71.6
January 2010	77.0	68.6	75.8	71.5
February 2010	76.8	68.4	75.6	71.4
March 2010	76.8	68.2	75.3	71.4
April 2010	76.7	68.2	75.3	71.3
May 2010	76.6	68.2	75.2	71.3
June 2010	76.6	68.1	75.1	71.4
July 2010	76.5	68.0	75.0	71.4
August 2010	76.5	67.9	74.9	71.5
September 2010	76.5	67.9	74.9	71.6
October 2010	76.5	67.9	74.9	71.7
November 2010	76.5	67.8	74.8	71.7
December 2010	76.5	67.8	74.7	71.7
January 2011	76.5	67.6	74.8	71.7
February 2011	76.6	67.6	74.8	71.6
March 2011	76.6	67.5	74.9	71.6
April 2011	76.6	67.3	74.8	71.6
May 2011	76.6	67.2	74.8	71.5
June 2011	76.6	67.0	74.9	71.5
July 2011	76.6	66.9	74.9	71.5
August 2011	76.6	66.8	74.9	71.5
September 2011	76.6	66.8	74.8	71.5
October 2011	76.6	66.7	74.9	71.5
November 2011	76.7	66.7	75.0	71.5
December 2011	76.7	66.7	75.1	71.6
January 2012	76.7	66.9	75.1	71.7
February 2012	76.7	67.0	75.1	71.8
March 2012	76.8	67.2	75.0	71.9
April 2012	76.8	67.4	75.0	72.0
May 2012	76.8	67.6	75.0	72.1
June 2012	76.9	67.8	75.0	72.2
July 2012	76.9	68.0	75.1	72.2
August 2012	76.9	68.3	75.2	72.2
September 2012	77.0	68.4	75.4	72.2
October 2012	77.0	68.6	75.5	72.3
November 2012	77.1	68.8	75.4	72.4
December 2012	77.1	68.8	75.5	72.4
January 2013	77.1	68.8	75.5	72.5
February 2013	77.2	68.9	75.6	72.5
March 2013	77.2	68.9	75.7	72.5
April 2013	77.2	69.0	75.8	72.5
May 2013	77.2	69.0	75.8	72.6
June 2013	77.2	69.1	75.9	72.7
July 2013	77.3	69.2	75.9	72.7
August 2013	77.3	69.1	76.0	72.7
September 2013	77.3	69.1	76.1	72.7
October 2013	77.2	69.0	76.1	72.7
November 2013	77.3	69.0	76.2	72.7
December 2013	77.3	69.1	76.3	72.8
January 2014	77.3	69.1	76.4	72.9
February 2014	77.4	69.3	76.3	73.0
March 2014	77.5	69.4	76.4	73.1
April 2014	77.5	69.5	76.3	73.3
May 2014	77.6	69.5	76.2	73.3
June 2014	77.7	69.7	76.0	73.4
July 2014	77.7	69.8	75.9	73.5
August 2014	77.8	70.0	75.7	73.6
September 2014	77.9	70.1	75.5	73.8
October 2014	78.0	70.3	75.4	74.0
November 2014	78.1	70.4	75.2	74.2
December 2014	78.1	70.6	75.2	74.3
January 2015	78.2	70.8	75.2	74.4
February 2015	78.2	70.9	75.3	74.4
March 2015	78.3	71.0	75.3	74.5
April 2015	78.3	71.2	75.4	74.5
May 2015	78.4	71.4	75.6	74.6
June 2015	78.4	71.6	75.7	74.6
July 2015	78.4	71.7	75.7	74.6
August 2015	78.4	71.8	75.7	74.6
September 2015	78.5	71.8	75.6	74.6
October 2015	78.5	71.9	75.6	74.5
November 2015	78.5	72.0	75.6	74.5
December 2015	78.5	72.1	75.6	74.5
January 2016	78.6	72.1	75.5	74.5
February 2016	78.6	72.2	75.5	74.6
March 2016	78.7	72.3	75.5	74.7
April 2016	78.8	72.3	75.5	74.7
May 2016	78.8	72.3	75.5	74.6

Note: The data are 12-month moving averages. Prime age is defined as those aged 25 to 54.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Return to text

Have the Gains of the Economic Expansion Been Widely Shared?: Figure B. Full-time share of all prime-age employed persons, by race

Monthly
Percent

Period	White	Black or African American	Asian	Hispanic or Latino
January 2003	88.0	90.9	89.9	89.2
February 2003	88.0	90.9	89.8	89.3
March 2003	88.0	90.8	89.6	89.4
April 2003	88.0	90.7	89.4	89.4
May 2003	88.0	90.6	89.2	89.4
June 2003	87.9	90.6	89.1	89.4
July 2003	88.0	90.6	89.0	89.4
August 2003	87.9	90.5	88.8	89.3
September 2003	87.9	90.5	88.8	89.3
October 2003	87.9	90.5	88.7	89.3
November 2003	87.9	90.5	88.6	89.3
December 2003	87.9	90.5	88.6	89.4
January 2004	87.9	90.5	88.7	89.4
February 2004	87.9	90.6	88.8	89.4
March 2004	87.9	90.6	88.8	89.5
April 2004	87.9	90.7	89.0	89.5
May 2004	87.9	90.8	89.2	89.6
June 2004	87.9	90.8	89.2	89.6
July 2004	87.9	90.7	89.2	89.6
August 2004	87.9	90.7	89.2	89.6
September 2004	87.9	90.7	89.3	89.6
October 2004	87.9	90.7	89.3	89.7
November 2004	87.9	90.8	89.5	89.7
December 2004	87.9	90.8	89.4	89.7
January 2005	88.0	90.7	89.3	89.7
February 2005	87.9	90.7	89.2	89.7
March 2005	87.9	90.7	89.2	89.6
April 2005	88.0	90.6	89.1	89.7
May 2005	88.0	90.5	89.2	89.8
June 2005	88.1	90.5	89.3	89.8
July 2005	88.1	90.5	89.5	89.9
August 2005	88.2	90.6	89.5	89.8
September 2005	88.2	90.6	89.4	90.0
October 2005	88.2	90.6	89.5	90.0
November 2005	88.3	90.5	89.5	90.1
December 2005	88.3	90.5	89.6	90.1
January 2006	88.3	90.5	89.7	90.1
February 2006	88.3	90.5	89.8	90.2
March 2006	88.3	90.6	89.8	90.3
April 2006	88.4	90.7	89.8	90.4
May 2006	88.4	90.8	89.8	90.4
June 2006	88.4	90.9	89.9	90.5
July 2006	88.4	90.9	89.9	90.6
August 2006	88.5	90.9	90.0	90.7
September 2006	88.5	90.9	90.1	90.7
October 2006	88.5	91.0	90.0	90.7
November 2006	88.6	91.1	89.8	90.7
December 2006	88.6	91.2	89.8	90.6
January 2007	88.6	91.2	89.7	90.6
February 2007	88.6	91.3	89.7	90.5
March 2007	88.6	91.3	89.7	90.4
April 2007	88.6	91.1	89.6	90.3
May 2007	88.6	91.1	89.6	90.3
June 2007	88.5	91.0	89.6	90.2
July 2007	88.5	91.0	89.6	90.2
August 2007	88.5	91.1	89.5	90.2
September 2007	88.5	91.1	89.5	90.2
October 2007	88.5	91.0	89.5	90.2
November 2007	88.5	91.0	89.5	90.3
December 2007	88.5	91.0	89.6	90.4
January 2008	88.5	90.9	89.5	90.4
February 2008	88.5	90.9	89.6	90.4
March 2008	88.6	90.9	89.5	90.4
April 2008	88.6	91.0	89.6	90.4
May 2008	88.6	91.0	89.5	90.3
June 2008	88.6	91.0	89.6	90.3
July 2008	88.5	91.0	89.6	90.2
August 2008	88.5	90.9	89.6	90.1
September 2008	88.5	90.9	89.6	89.9
October 2008	88.4	90.9	89.6	89.8
November 2008	88.3	90.7	89.6	89.6
December 2008	88.2	90.5	89.4	89.3
January 2009	88.1	90.3	89.3	89.0
February 2009	87.9	90.1	89.2	88.7
March 2009	87.8	89.9	89.1	88.4
April 2009	87.6	89.7	89.0	88.0
May 2009	87.4	89.5	88.9	87.7
June 2009	87.2	89.3	88.6	87.4
July 2009	87.1	89.1	88.4	87.1
August 2009	86.9	89.0	88.1	86.8
September 2009	86.7	88.9	88.0	86.6
October 2009	86.5	88.7	87.8	86.3
November 2009	86.3	88.6	87.7	86.0
December 2009	86.2	88.5	87.7	85.8
January 2010	86.1	88.4	87.7	85.5
February 2010	86.0	88.2	87.7	85.4
March 2010	86.0	88.2	87.7	85.3
April 2010	85.9	88.1	87.6	85.3
May 2010	86.0	88.0	87.6	85.3
June 2010	86.0	88.0	87.7	85.4
July 2010	86.0	88.0	87.8	85.4
August 2010	86.0	87.9	87.9	85.5
September 2010	86.0	87.8	87.8	85.4
October 2010	86.1	87.7	87.7	85.4
November 2010	86.1	87.7	87.6	85.5
December 2010	86.1	87.6	87.6	85.5
January 2011	86.2	87.5	87.7	85.6
February 2011	86.2	87.6	87.9	85.8
March 2011	86.3	87.6	88.0	85.9
April 2011	86.3	87.5	87.9	86.0
May 2011	86.3	87.5	87.8	86.0
June 2011	86.3	87.4	87.7	86.0
July 2011	86.3	87.3	87.7	85.9
August 2011	86.3	87.2	87.7	85.9
September 2011	86.3	87.1	87.9	85.9
October 2011	86.4	87.1	88.0	85.9
November 2011	86.4	87.0	88.0	85.9
December 2011	86.4	87.1	88.1	85.9
January 2012	86.4	87.0	88.1	85.9
February 2012	86.5	87.0	88.0	85.8
March 2012	86.5	86.9	87.8	85.8
April 2012	86.6	86.9	87.8	85.8
May 2012	86.6	86.9	87.8	85.8
June 2012	86.6	86.9	87.9	85.8
July 2012	86.7	86.9	87.8	85.9
August 2012	86.7	86.9	87.7	85.9
September 2012	86.8	86.9	87.6	85.9
October 2012	86.8	86.8	87.6	86.0
November 2012	86.8	86.9	87.6	86.0
December 2012	86.8	87.0	87.4	85.9
January 2013	86.9	87.1	87.4	86.0
February 2013	86.9	87.3	87.3	86.0
March 2013	86.9	87.3	87.4	86.0
April 2013	86.9	87.4	87.5	86.1
May 2013	86.9	87.3	87.7	86.2
June 2013	86.8	87.2	87.8	86.2
July 2013	86.8	87.1	88.0	86.3
August 2013	86.8	87.1	88.1	86.3
September 2013	86.8	87.1	88.1	86.4
October 2013	86.8	87.2	88.1	86.3
November 2013	86.9	87.1	88.2	86.4
December 2013	86.9	87.0	88.4	86.4
January 2014	86.9	87.0	88.5	86.4
February 2014	86.9	87.0	88.7	86.5
March 2014	86.9	87.0	88.7	86.5
April 2014	86.9	87.0	88.7	86.6
May 2014	87.0	87.1	88.8	86.6
June 2014	87.0	87.3	88.7	86.5
July 2014	87.0	87.4	88.7	86.4
August 2014	87.0	87.5	88.7	86.4
September 2014	87.1	87.7	88.7	86.4
October 2014	87.1	87.8	88.7	86.5
November 2014	87.2	87.8	88.6	86.5
December 2014	87.2	87.8	88.5	86.5
January 2015	87.2	87.9	88.6	86.6
February 2015	87.3	88.0	88.5	86.6
March 2015	87.3	87.9	88.5	86.6
April 2015	87.3	87.9	88.6	86.7
May 2015	87.4	88.0	88.7	86.7
June 2015	87.4	88.1	88.7	86.8
July 2015	87.5	88.1	88.7	86.9
August 2015	87.5	88.1	88.7	87.0
September 2015	87.5	88.2	88.7	87.1
October 2015	87.6	88.1	88.7	87.2
November 2015	87.6	88.1	88.7	87.3
December 2015	87.6	88.2	88.8	87.4
January 2016	87.7	88.3	88.8	87.5
February 2016	87.7	88.2	88.8	87.5
March 2016	87.7	88.2	88.8	87.5
April 2016	87.7	88.4	88.8	87.5
May 2016	87.7	88.2	88.7	87.5

Note: The data are 12-month moving averages. Prime age is defined as those aged 25 to 54.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Return to text

Have the Gains of the Economic Expansion Been Widely Shared?: Figure C. Indexed median prime-age household income, by race

Annual
Inflation-adjusted dollars, 2007=100

Period	White	Black or African American	Asian	Hispanic or Latino
2003	100.6	98.7	94.9	96.6
2004	99.9	94.5	95.1	99.3
2005	99.9	97.3	94.8	101.1
2006	99.8	95.1	96.4	102.8
2007	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
2008	96.8	91.5	95.8	94.0
2009	94.8	89.4	92.1	92.8
2010	92.3	85.8	90.0	91.3
2011	91.1	84.3	91.9	91.3
2012	92.6	84.0	90.4	91.8
2013	93.8	85.5	93.7	90.0
2014	93.6	87.6	99.2	96.0

Note: Prime-age households are defined as households led by those aged 25 to 54. Race refers to the race of the head of household. The data extend through 2014.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March 2016.

Return to text

Have the Gains of the Economic Expansion Been Widely Shared?: Figure D. Median prime-age household income, by race

Annual
Thousands of inflation-adjusted dollars

Period	White	Black or African American	Asian	Hispanic or Latino
2003	72.1	45.1	81.4	46.4
2004	71.6	43.2	81.6	47.7
2005	71.6	44.5	81.3	48.5
2006	71.6	43.5	82.7	49.4
2007	71.7	45.7	85.8	48.0
2008	69.4	41.8	82.1	45.1
2009	68.0	40.9	79.0	44.6
2010	66.2	39.2	77.2	43.9
2011	65.3	38.6	78.8	43.8
2012	66.4	38.4	77.5	44.1
2013	67.2	39.1	80.3	43.2
2014	67.1	40.0	85.1	46.1

Note: Prime-age households are defined as households led by those aged 25 to 54. Race refers to the race of the head of household. The data extend through 2014.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March 2016.

Return to text

Have the Gains of the Economic Expansion Been Widely Shared?: Figure E. Changing composition of income for middle quintile of prime-age households, by race group and key year

Thousands of inflation-adjusted dollars

Race group and key year	Wage income	Transfer income	Other income
White
2007	63.87	1.39	6.80
2011	58.49	2.08	5.23
2014	59.56	1.68	6.31
Black or African American
2007	41.18	1.73	3.26
2011	33.38	2.90	2.96
2014	34.34	2.02	3.58
Asian
2007	78.37	1.03	6.48
2011	71.09	2.04	5.38
2014	77.24	1.36	6.70
Hispanic or Latino
2007	43.46	1.15	3.72
2011	39.18	2.05	3.14
2014	41.58	1.67	3.08

Note: Prime-age households are defined as households led by those aged 25 to 54. Race refers to the race of the head of household. The data are grouped according to key years 2007, 2011, and 2014.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March 2016.

Return to text

Figure 5. Measures of change in hourly compensation

Quarterly
Percent change from year earlier

Period	Employment cost index	Compensation per hour, business sector
2004:Q1	3.83	4.61
2004:Q2	3.90	4.55
2004:Q3	3.76	4.98
2004:Q4	3.85	4.39
2005:Q1	3.48	5.04
2005:Q2	3.13	3.40
2005:Q3	2.90	2.99
2005:Q4	2.88	3.03
2006:Q1	2.65	4.58
2006:Q2	2.83	4.18
2006:Q3	3.02	2.99
2006:Q4	3.20	3.97
2007:Q1	3.17	4.26
2007:Q2	3.15	4.61
2007:Q3	3.12	4.87
2007:Q4	3.00	4.03
2008:Q1	3.17	2.48
2008:Q2	2.96	2.37
2008:Q3	2.84	2.83
2008:Q4	2.45	2.93
2009:Q1	1.86	-0.53
2009:Q2	1.48	1.72
2009:Q3	1.20	1.65
2009:Q4	1.19	1.25
2010:Q1	1.65	3.02
2010:Q2	1.92	1.71
2010:Q3	2.00	1.45
2010:Q4	2.09	1.26
2011:Q1	1.98	3.76
2011:Q2	2.33	2.14
2011:Q3	2.14	2.18
2011:Q4	2.22	0.57
2012:Q1	2.12	1.22
2012:Q2	1.84	2.30
2012:Q3	1.92	1.83
2012:Q4	1.83	5.82
2013:Q1	1.90	1.12
2013:Q2	1.89	2.00
2013:Q3	1.88	2.03
2013:Q4	1.96	-0.07
2014:Q1	1.70	3.74
2014:Q2	2.02	1.89
2014:Q3	2.27	2.40
2014:Q4	2.35	2.73
2015:Q1	2.75	1.56
2015:Q2	1.90	3.28
2015:Q3	1.89	3.24
2015:Q4	1.88	3.19
2016:Q1	1.79	3.74

Note: The compensation per hour and employment cost index data extend through 2016:Q1. For business-sector compensation, change is over four quarters; for the employment cost index, change is over the 12 months ending in the last month of each quarter.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Monthly
Percent change from year earlier

Period	Average hourly earnings
March 2007	3.44
April 2007	3.13
May 2007	3.53
June 2007	3.61
July 2007	3.25
August 2007	3.35
September 2007	3.09
October 2007	3.03
November 2007	3.07
December 2007	2.92
January 2008	2.91
February 2008	2.85
March 2008	3.04
April 2008	2.89
May 2008	3.07
June 2008	2.67
July 2008	3.05
August 2008	3.33
September 2008	3.28
October 2008	3.32
November 2008	3.50
December 2008	3.59
January 2009	3.58
February 2009	3.43
March 2009	3.28
April 2009	3.37
May 2009	2.93
June 2009	2.88
July 2009	2.69
August 2009	2.44
September 2009	2.44
October 2009	2.53
November 2009	2.15
December 2009	1.96
January 2010	2.09
February 2010	2.09
March 2010	1.81
April 2010	1.81
May 2010	1.90
June 2010	1.76
July 2010	1.85
August 2010	1.75
September 2010	1.84
October 2010	1.93
November 2010	1.79
December 2010	1.74
January 2011	1.92
February 2011	1.83
March 2011	1.83
April 2011	1.87
May 2011	2.04
June 2011	2.13
July 2011	2.30
August 2011	1.95
September 2011	1.94
October 2011	2.07
November 2011	1.98
December 2011	2.07
January 2012	1.75
February 2012	1.79
March 2012	2.14
April 2012	2.05
May 2012	1.78
June 2012	1.96
July 2012	1.77
August 2012	1.86
September 2012	2.03
October 2012	1.55
November 2012	1.94
December 2012	2.15
January 2013	2.15
February 2013	2.15
March 2013	1.93
April 2013	2.05
May 2013	2.09
June 2013	2.22
July 2013	1.96
August 2013	2.30
September 2013	2.08
October 2013	2.25
November 2013	2.24
December 2013	1.98
January 2014	2.02
February 2014	2.31
March 2014	2.18
April 2014	1.97
May 2014	2.13
June 2014	2.04
July 2014	2.09
August 2014	2.16
September 2014	2.04
October 2014	1.99
November 2014	2.11
December 2014	1.69
January 2015	2.19
February 2015	1.93
March 2015	2.22
April 2015	2.34
May 2015	2.34
June 2015	2.00
July 2015	2.25
August 2015	2.32
September 2015	2.36
October 2015	2.56
November 2015	2.39
December 2015	2.64
January 2016	2.50
February 2016	2.38
March 2016	2.33
April 2016	2.53
May 2016	2.48

Note: The average hourly earnings data series begins in March 2007 and extends through May 2016. Change is from 12 months earlier.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Return to text

Figure 6. Change in business sector output per hour

Percent, annual rate

Period	Percent change
1948-1973	3.20
1974-1995	1.59
1996-2000	3.08
2001-2007	2.61
2008-present	1.07

Note: Changes are measured from Q4 of the year immediately preceding the period through Q4 of the final year of the period. The final period is measured from 2007:Q4 through 2016:Q1. (In bar charts, except as noted, the change for a given period is measured to its final quarter from the final quarter of the preceding period.)

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Return to text

Figure 7. Change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures

Monthly
12-month percent change

Period	Total	Excluding food and energy
January 2009	0.18	1.22
February 2009	0.18	1.21
March 2009	-0.22	1.10
April 2009	-0.32	1.24
May 2009	-0.62	1.15
June 2009	-0.71	1.09
July 2009	-1.18	0.97
August 2009	-0.84	0.97
September 2009	-0.77	1.03
October 2009	0.08	1.33
November 2009	1.46	1.42
December 2009	2.07	1.50
January 2010	2.19	1.56
February 2010	1.98	1.54
March 2010	2.19	1.56
April 2010	2.02	1.33
May 2010	1.93	1.34
June 2010	1.38	1.31
July 2010	1.55	1.35
August 2010	1.42	1.33
September 2010	1.35	1.19
October 2010	1.27	0.97
November 2010	1.20	0.99
December 2010	1.39	0.95
January 2011	1.43	0.99
February 2011	1.70	1.08
March 2011	1.97	1.09
April 2011	2.43	1.31
May 2011	2.71	1.43
June 2011	2.69	1.46
July 2011	2.77	1.58
August 2011	2.86	1.69
September 2011	2.93	1.72
October 2011	2.75	1.78
November 2011	2.73	1.84
December 2011	2.50	1.96
January 2012	2.57	2.09
February 2012	2.52	2.06
March 2012	2.37	2.11
April 2012	2.06	2.03
May 2012	1.66	1.91
June 2012	1.60	1.90
July 2012	1.44	1.84
August 2012	1.55	1.68
September 2012	1.71	1.73
October 2012	1.94	1.84
November 2012	1.68	1.78
December 2012	1.66	1.72
January 2013	1.52	1.69
February 2013	1.68	1.68
March 2013	1.36	1.59
April 2013	1.12	1.48
May 2013	1.30	1.47
June 2013	1.54	1.50
July 2013	1.61	1.48
August 2013	1.41	1.55
September 2013	1.20	1.54
October 2013	1.04	1.47
November 2013	1.22	1.52
December 2013	1.40	1.54
January 2014	1.40	1.44
February 2014	1.08	1.39
March 2014	1.37	1.47
April 2014	1.66	1.59
May 2014	1.77	1.65
June 2014	1.69	1.62
July 2014	1.71	1.66
August 2014	1.55	1.59
September 2014	1.51	1.60
October 2014	1.40	1.52
November 2014	1.19	1.44
December 2014	0.78	1.37
January 2015	0.16	1.29
February 2015	0.26	1.34
March 2015	0.28	1.35
April 2015	0.16	1.32
May 2015	0.25	1.28
June 2015	0.34	1.30
July 2015	0.32	1.26
August 2015	0.32	1.29
September 2015	0.18	1.34
October 2015	0.24	1.31
November 2015	0.51	1.38
December 2015	0.66	1.44
January 2016	1.26	1.69
February 2016	1.01	1.74
March 2016	0.85	1.59
April 2016	1.09	1.60

Note: The data extend through April 2016; changes are from one year earlier.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Return to text

Figure 8. Brent spot and futures prices

Series: Brent spot and December 2018 futures contracts prices

Horizon: January 9, 2014, to June 16, 2016

Description: The data are weekly averages of daily data, plotted as two curves. Units for both the spot price and the futures contracts are in dollars per barrel along the right axis. The curves move in the same direction from 2014 to 2016 but with the spot price moving more. Both series remain fairly constant for the first half of 2014 before decreasing sharply at the end of 2014. Spot and futures prices are little changed, on net, over the first half of 2015 but then decline over the second half of 2015. Both series begin to increase in early 2016 and continue increasing until the end of the time horizon.

The spot price series starts just below 110 at the beginning of 2014 and stays around 110 for the first half of 2014, with only minor fluctuations. In the second half of 2014, the series declines dramatically from above 110 to below 50. In the first quarter of 2015, the series increases steeply to 60 before making a slight drop to near 55. In the second quarter of 2015, the series increases to above 65 then declines to about 45 in the middle of the third quarter. From the beginning of the fourth quarter to the beginning of the first quarter of 2016, the series declines from about 50 to just under 30. The series gradually increases over the first half of 2016 to about 50 by the middle of June, where the series ends.

The December 2018 future contracts series starts just below 90 in 2014 and gradually increases to just under 100, with only minor fluctuations. From the third quarter of 2014 until the first month of 2015, the series drops dramatically to about 70. The series stays around 70 before declining to about 60 in the third quarter. The series remains around 60 in the beginning of the fourth quarter but then declines to just below 45 between the middle of the fourth quarter and the beginning of the first quarter of 2016. The series then gradually increases over the first half of 2016 to about 55 by the middle of June, where the series ends.

Note: The data are weekly averages of daily data and extend through June 16, 2016.

Source: NYMEX via Bloomberg.

Return to text

Figure 9. Non-oil import prices and U.S. dollar exchange rate

Monthly
12-month percent change

Period	Non-oil import prices	Broad nominal dollar
January 2011	2.99	-2.76
February 2011	3.62	-4.91
March 2011	4.26	-5.00
April 2011	4.60	-6.10
May 2011	4.68	-8.66
June 2011	5.15	-9.18
July 2011	5.43	-8.38
August 2011	5.51	-7.14
September 2011	5.41	-3.42
October 2011	4.76	0.07
November 2011	3.65	0.42
December 2011	3.37	0.70
January 2012	2.46	1.24
February 2012	1.66	0.25
March 2012	1.48	1.83
April 2012	0.69	3.88
May 2012	0.17	5.72
June 2012	-0.09	7.26
July 2012	-0.52	7.49
August 2012	-0.86	5.95
September 2012	-0.85	1.28
October 2012	-0.17	0.07
November 2012	0.09	0.06
December 2012	0.09	-1.43
January 2013	0.17	-0.89
February 2013	0.26	1.69
March 2013	-0.17	1.95
April 2013	-0.17	1.26
May 2013	-0.43	-0.04
June 2013	-0.52	-0.63
July 2013	-0.78	0.40
August 2013	-0.86	1.17
September 2013	-1.03	2.55
October 2013	-1.29	1.81
November 2013	-1.20	2.06
December 2013	-1.12	2.83
January 2014	-0.77	3.89
February 2014	-0.51	3.29
March 2014	0.00	2.33
April 2014	-0.34	2.30
May 2014	-0.09	1.53
June 2014	0.09	0.85
July 2014	0.70	0.06
August 2014	0.78	1.06
September 2014	0.70	2.79
October 2014	0.44	5.17
November 2014	0.09	6.01
December 2014	-0.09	8.43
January 2015	-1.21	9.72
February 2015	-1.72	10.87
March 2015	-2.58	12.94
April 2015	-2.67	12.20
May 2015	-2.67	11.69
June 2015	-2.59	12.45
July 2015	-2.85	14.70
August 2015	-3.11	15.88
September 2015	-3.20	15.07
October 2015	-3.38	12.58
November 2015	-3.39	12.38
December 2015	-3.74	10.85
January 2016	-3.15	10.97
February 2016	-3.07	8.57
March 2016	-2.73	4.48
April 2016	-2.30	3.87
May 2016	-1.86	5.75

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release H.10, "Foreign Exchange Rates."

Return to text

Figure 10. Median inflation expectations

SPF expectations for next 10 years

Period	Percent
2007:Q1	2.00
2007:Q2	2.00
2007:Q3	2.10
2007:Q4	2.10
2008:Q1	2.20
2008:Q2	2.20
2008:Q3	2.20
2008:Q4	2.20
2009:Q1	2.20
2009:Q2	2.28
2009:Q3	2.15
2009:Q4	2.10
2010:Q1	2.10
2010:Q2	2.15
2010:Q3	2.11
2010:Q4	2.00
2011:Q1	2.10
2011:Q2	2.27
2011:Q3	2.25
2011:Q4	2.16
2012:Q1	2.15
2012:Q2	2.20
2012:Q3	2.20
2012:Q4	2.10
2013:Q1	2.00
2013:Q2	2.00
2013:Q3	2.00
2013:Q4	2.00
2014:Q1	2.00
2014:Q2	2.00
2014:Q3	2.00
2014:Q4	2.00
2015:Q1	2.00
2015:Q2	1.98
2015:Q3	2.00
2015:Q4	1.90
2016:Q1	1.97
2016:Q2	2.00

Note: The SPF data for inflation expectations for personal consumption expenditures are quarterly and extend from 2007:Q1 through 2016:Q2.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF).

Michigan survey expectations for next 5 to 10 years

Period	Percent
January 2002	2.7
February 2002	2.8
March 2002	2.8
April 2002	2.8
May 2002	3.0
June 2002	2.8
July 2002	2.8
August 2002	2.9
September 2002	2.5
October 2002	2.8
November 2002	2.8
December 2002	2.8
January 2003	2.7
February 2003	2.7
March 2003	2.8
April 2003	2.7
May 2003	2.8
June 2003	2.7
July 2003	2.7
August 2003	2.7
September 2003	2.7
October 2003	2.8
November 2003	2.7
December 2003	2.8
January 2004	2.8
February 2004	2.9
March 2004	2.9
April 2004	2.7
May 2004	2.8
June 2004	2.9
July 2004	2.8
August 2004	2.7
September 2004	2.8
October 2004	2.8
November 2004	2.7
December 2004	2.8
January 2005	2.7
February 2005	2.8
March 2005	2.9
April 2005	3.0
May 2005	2.9
June 2005	2.8
July 2005	2.9
August 2005	2.8
September 2005	3.1
October 2005	3.2
November 2005	3.0
December 2005	3.1
January 2006	2.9
February 2006	2.9
March 2006	2.9
April 2006	3.1
May 2006	3.2
June 2006	2.9
July 2006	2.9
August 2006	3.2
September 2006	3.0
October 2006	3.1
November 2006	3.0
December 2006	3.0
January 2007	3.0
February 2007	2.9
March 2007	2.9
April 2007	3.1
May 2007	3.1
June 2007	2.9
July 2007	3.1
August 2007	2.9
September 2007	2.9
October 2007	2.8
November 2007	2.9
December 2007	3.1
January 2008	3.0
February 2008	3.0
March 2008	2.9
April 2008	3.2
May 2008	3.4
June 2008	3.4
July 2008	3.2
August 2008	3.2
September 2008	3.0
October 2008	2.9
November 2008	2.9
December 2008	2.6
January 2009	2.9
February 2009	3.1
March 2009	2.6
April 2009	2.8
May 2009	2.9
June 2009	3.0
July 2009	3.0
August 2009	2.8
September 2009	2.8
October 2009	2.9
November 2009	3.0
December 2009	2.7
January 2010	2.9
February 2010	2.7
March 2010	2.7
April 2010	2.7
May 2010	2.9
June 2010	2.8
July 2010	2.9
August 2010	2.8
September 2010	2.7
October 2010	2.8
November 2010	2.8
December 2010	2.8
January 2011	2.9
February 2011	2.9
March 2011	3.2
April 2011	2.9
May 2011	2.9
June 2011	3.0
July 2011	2.9
August 2011	2.9
September 2011	2.8
October 2011	2.7
November 2011	2.7
December 2011	2.7
January 2012	2.7
February 2012	2.9
March 2012	3.0
April 2012	2.9
May 2012	2.7
June 2012	2.8
July 2012	2.7
August 2012	3.0
September 2012	2.8
October 2012	2.7
November 2012	2.8
December 2012	2.9
January 2013	2.9
February 2013	3.0
March 2013	2.8
April 2013	2.9
May 2013	2.9
June 2013	2.9
July 2013	2.8
August 2013	2.9
September 2013	3.0
October 2013	2.8
November 2013	2.9
December 2013	2.7
January 2014	2.9
February 2014	2.9
March 2014	2.9
April 2014	2.9
May 2014	2.8
June 2014	2.9
July 2014	2.7
August 2014	2.9
September 2014	2.8
October 2014	2.8
November 2014	2.6
December 2014	2.8
January 2015	2.8
February 2015	2.7
March 2015	2.8
April 2015	2.6
May 2015	2.8
June 2015	2.6
July 2015	2.8
August 2015	2.7
September 2015	2.7
October 2015	2.5
November 2015	2.6
December 2015	2.6
January 2016	2.7
February 2016	2.5
March 2016	2.7
April 2016	2.5
May 2016	2.5
June 2016	2.3

Note: The Michigan survey data are monthly and extend through June 2016. Michigan survey data for June are preliminary.

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Return to text

Figure 11. 5-to-10-year-forward inflation compensation

Series: Inflation swaps and TIPS breakeven 5-to-10-year-forward inflation compensation

Horizon: January 2008 to June 2016

Description: Weekly data are plotted as two curves. Units for both series are percent and are along the right axis. Broadly speaking, the two curves tend to run parallel, with the inflation swaps series running a little higher than the TIPS breakeven series after 2011. The two series are largely indistinguishable between 2008 and 2011.

The inflation swaps series starts in January 2008 at approximately 2.75, spiking to approximately 3.5 in mid-2009, declining to approximately 2.5 in mid-2010, and spiking again to approximately 3 in mid-2011. The series continues to fluctuate between 2.5 and 3.25 from early 2010 through mid-2014. The series then sharply declines over the latter half of 2014, briefly rises in mid-2015, and then declines, on average, through mid-2016 before reaching a little under 2 on June 17, 2016.

The TIPS breakeven series follows a similar path, starting in January 2008 at approximately 2.75, spiking at approximately 3.5 in late 2008, and sharply declining to approximately 2 by the end of 2008. The series continues to fluctuate between 2 and 3 from late 2009 through mid-2014, hitting two local minima at approximately 2 in mid-2010 and late 2011. The series then sharply declines over the latter half of 2014 before rising in 2015. The series declines for the rest of 2015 and the first half of 2016, reaching its second-lowest point at a little under 1.5 on June 17, 2016.

Note: The data are weekly averages of daily data and extend through June 17, 2016. TIPS is Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Barclays; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

Return to text

Figure 12. Change in real gross domestic product and gross domestic income

Percent, annual rate

Period	Gross domestic product	Gross domestic income
2009	-0.24	0.34
2010	2.73	2.59
2011	1.68	2.09
2012	1.28	2.85
2013	2.45	1.36
2014	2.47	3.33
2015	1.98	1.65
2016:Q1	0.84	2.23

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Return to text

Figure 13. Change in real personal consumption expenditures and disposable personal income

Percent, annual rate

Period	Personal consumption expenditures	Disposable personal income
2010	3.05	2.62
2011	1.48	1.66
2012	1.32	5.05
2013	2.27	-2.94
2014	3.21	3.57
2015	2.70	3.26
2016:H1	1.36	3.03

Note: The reading for 2016:H1 is the annualized April/Q4 change.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Return to text

Figure 14. Prices of existing single-family houses

Monthly
Percent change from year earlier

Period	S&P/Case-Shiller national index	Zillow index	CoreLogic price index
January 2005	13.81	10.80	15.83
February 2005	14.00	10.76	16.06
March 2005	14.22	10.86	16.48
April 2005	14.24	10.77	16.61
May 2005	14.30	10.87	16.43
June 2005	14.28	11.01	16.16
July 2005	14.28	11.23	16.01
August 2005	14.37	11.07	16.17
September 2005	14.51	11.16	16.38
October 2005	14.37	11.38	16.12
November 2005	14.08	11.35	15.76
December 2005	13.51	11.07	15.35
January 2006	12.92	10.62	14.84
February 2006	12.09	10.17	13.99
March 2006	11.04	9.79	12.65
April 2006	9.97	9.61	11.08
May 2006	8.75	9.01	9.43
June 2006	7.29	8.19	7.53
July 2006	6.04	7.28	5.91
August 2006	4.83	6.68	4.50
September 2006	3.72	5.97	3.32
October 2006	2.97	5.22	2.38
November 2006	2.20	4.38	1.39
December 2006	1.74	3.66	0.32
January 2007	1.05	3.11	-0.59
February 2007	0.54	2.62	-1.45
March 2007	-0.30	2.14	-2.78
April 2007	-0.82	1.71	-3.67
May 2007	-1.35	1.34	-4.38
June 2007	-1.63	0.72	-4.73
July 2007	-1.96	0.10	-5.10
August 2007	-2.26	-0.26	-5.75
September 2007	-2.75	-0.82	-6.73
October 2007	-3.54	-1.53	-7.98
November 2007	-4.60	-2.04	-9.21
December 2007	-5.39	-2.56	-10.36
January 2008	-6.36	-3.22	-11.64
February 2008	-7.27	-3.94	-12.87
March 2008	-7.84	-4.80	-13.60
April 2008	-8.13	-5.71	-14.23
May 2008	-8.17	-6.32	-14.34
June 2008	-8.26	-6.70	-14.35
July 2008	-8.44	-6.83	-14.70
August 2008	-8.84	-7.10	-15.08
September 2008	-9.60	-7.33	-15.89
October 2008	-10.34	-7.27	-16.66
November 2008	-10.90	-7.10	-17.16
December 2008	-11.99	-6.93	-17.99
January 2009	-12.69	-6.66	-18.44
February 2009	-12.75	-6.39	-17.91
March 2009	-12.74	-6.01	-17.04
April 2009	-12.17	-5.79	-15.71
May 2009	-11.28	-5.72	-13.93
June 2009	-10.05	-5.59	-12.10
July 2009	-9.03	-5.51	-10.47
August 2009	-8.29	-5.43	-9.05
September 2009	-7.59	-5.24	-7.77
October 2009	-6.65	-5.21	-6.08
November 2009	-5.21	-5.17	-4.04
December 2009	-3.85	-4.96	-2.28
January 2010	-2.94	-4.81	-1.39
February 2010	-3.10	-4.78	-1.40
March 2010	-2.01	-4.74	-0.15
April 2010	-1.08	-4.48	0.98
May 2010	-0.80	-4.21	1.20
June 2010	-1.43	-3.95	0.74
July 2010	-2.14	-4.03	-0.18
August 2010	-2.85	-4.28	-1.24
September 2010	-3.39	-4.41	-2.14
October 2010	-3.70	-4.55	-2.83
November 2010	-4.16	-4.86	-3.58
December 2010	-4.14	-5.16	-3.66
January 2011	-4.10	-5.41	-3.64
February 2011	-3.72	-5.61	-3.63
March 2011	-4.05	-5.81	-4.42
April 2011	-4.29	-5.95	-4.62
May 2011	-4.31	-6.03	-4.52
June 2011	-3.89	-6.11	-3.93
July 2011	-3.53	-5.90	-3.08
August 2011	-3.16	-5.51	-2.35
September 2011	-3.06	-5.11	-1.67
October 2011	-3.29	-4.76	-1.41
November 2011	-3.64	-4.42	-1.41
December 2011	-3.89	-4.01	-1.10
January 2012	-3.51	-3.40	-0.48
February 2012	-2.70	-2.66	0.52
March 2012	-1.37	-2.10	1.88
April 2012	-0.46	-1.47	2.72
May 2012	0.28	-0.77	3.48
June 2012	0.89	-0.06	3.84
July 2012	1.39	0.71	4.22
August 2012	2.08	1.36	4.81
September 2012	3.02	1.95	5.43
October 2012	4.05	2.40	6.18
November 2012	5.38	2.93	7.16
December 2012	6.47	3.26	8.00
January 2013	7.59	3.52	8.78
February 2013	8.33	3.77	9.39
March 2013	8.90	4.16	10.06
April 2013	9.03	4.35	10.20
May 2013	9.10	4.72	10.05
June 2013	9.28	5.28	9.64
July 2013	9.73	5.64	9.68
August 2013	10.18	5.94	9.91
September 2013	10.64	6.11	10.30
October 2013	10.85	6.47	10.54
November 2013	10.73	7.03	10.50
December 2013	10.74	7.45	10.29
January 2014	10.47	7.67	10.32
February 2014	10.17	7.70	10.37
March 2014	8.97	7.86	9.51
April 2014	7.97	7.89	8.46
May 2014	7.06	7.35	7.42
June 2014	6.28	6.55	6.62
July 2014	5.61	6.07	5.98
August 2014	5.07	5.55	5.47
September 2014	4.75	4.98	5.18
October 2014	4.62	4.53	5.23
November 2014	4.58	4.14	5.19
December 2014	4.52	3.64	5.07
January 2015	4.33	3.04	5.10
February 2015	4.26	2.79	5.17
March 2015	4.32	2.66	5.29
April 2015	4.34	2.71	5.37
May 2015	4.39	3.05	5.36
June 2015	4.40	3.50	5.33
July 2015	4.44	3.61	5.16
August 2015	4.52	3.71	5.13
September 2015	4.73	3.94	5.34
October 2015	4.95	4.16	5.34
November 2015	5.19	4.20	5.34
December 2015	5.30	4.42	5.55
January 2016	5.42	4.76	5.55
February 2016	5.32	4.98	5.38
March 2016	5.15	5.07	5.50
April 2016	ND	4.88	6.15

Note: The data for the S&P/Case-Shiller index extend through March 2016. The data for the Zillow and CoreLogic indexes extend through April 2016. For Dow Jones Indices licensing information, see the note on the Contents page: For figures 14, 32, and 35, note that the S&P/Case-Shiller Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by the Board. Copyright © 2016 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a subsidiary of the McGraw Hill Financial Inc., and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution, reproduction and/or photocopying in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. For more information on any of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC's indices please visit www.spdji.com. S&P® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.

Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index; Zillow; S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index ("Index"). The S&P/Case-Shiller Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates.

ND No data. Return to table

Return to text

Figure 15. Wealth-to-income ratio

Quarterly

Period	Ratio
1996:Q1	5.22
1996:Q2	5.22
1996:Q3	5.22
1996:Q4	5.21
1997:Q1	5.18
1997:Q2	5.38
1997:Q3	5.49
1997:Q4	5.46
1998:Q1	5.62
1998:Q2	5.63
1998:Q3	5.42
1998:Q4	5.71
1999:Q1	5.72
1999:Q2	5.87
1999:Q3	5.77
1999:Q4	6.09
2000:Q1	6.10
2000:Q2	5.96
2000:Q3	5.95
2000:Q4	5.77
2001:Q1	5.56
2001:Q2	5.70
2001:Q3	5.39
2001:Q4	5.66
2002:Q1	5.58
2002:Q2	5.40
2002:Q3	5.23
2002:Q4	5.31
2003:Q1	5.29
2003:Q2	5.43
2003:Q3	5.43
2003:Q4	5.64
2004:Q1	5.81
2004:Q2	5.85
2004:Q3	5.89
2004:Q4	6.05
2005:Q1	6.19
2005:Q2	6.28
2005:Q3	6.35
2005:Q4	6.42
2006:Q1	6.44
2006:Q2	6.38
2006:Q3	6.37
2006:Q4	6.48
2007:Q1	6.47
2007:Q2	6.47
2007:Q3	6.42
2007:Q4	6.24
2008:Q1	5.92
2008:Q2	5.61
2008:Q3	5.49
2008:Q4	5.14
2009:Q1	5.02
2009:Q2	5.06
2009:Q3	5.23
2009:Q4	5.28
2010:Q1	5.36
2010:Q2	5.20
2010:Q3	5.31
2010:Q4	5.45
2011:Q1	5.46
2011:Q2	5.45
2011:Q3	5.21
2011:Q4	5.33
2012:Q1	5.42
2012:Q2	5.38
2012:Q3	5.53
2012:Q4	5.46
2013:Q1	5.92
2013:Q2	6.01
2013:Q3	6.16
2013:Q4	6.34
2014:Q1	6.34
2014:Q2	6.40
2014:Q3	6.36
2014:Q4	6.42
2015:Q1	6.52
2015:Q2	6.49
2015:Q3	6.31
2015:Q4	6.41
2016:Q1	6.40

Note: The series is the ratio of household net worth to disposable personal income.

Source: For net worth, Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States"; for income, Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Return to text

Figure 16. Indexes of consumer sentiment and income expectations

Monthly

Period	Real income expectations (Diffusion index)	Consumer sentiment (Index)
January 1995	82.67	94.77
February 1995	82.67	95.93
March 1995	81.67	94.33
April 1995	81.67	92.63
May 1995	81.67	90.87
June 1995	83.00	91.67
July 1995	83.33	92.30
August 1995	84.00	94.43
September 1995	84.00	93.17
October 1995	82.33	91.77
November 1995	79.67	89.10
December 1995	80.00	89.80
January 1996	80.00	89.50
February 1996	81.67	89.60
March 1996	83.00	90.50
April 1996	82.67	91.63
May 1996	82.33	91.93
June 1996	79.33	91.50
July 1996	81.33	92.17
August 1996	83.33	94.13
September 1996	85.00	94.90
October 1996	84.33	95.50
November 1996	85.00	96.80
December 1996	85.33	97.53
January 1997	86.00	97.83
February 1997	84.67	98.00
March 1997	84.67	99.03
April 1997	84.67	100.37
May 1997	85.00	101.53
June 1997	85.33	103.03
July 1997	84.33	104.93
August 1997	84.33	105.33
September 1997	85.00	105.83
October 1997	87.33	105.33
November 1997	88.33	106.27
December 1997	90.33	104.97
January 1998	91.67	105.30
February 1998	94.33	106.37
March 1998	93.33	107.83
April 1998	93.67	108.53
May 1998	91.00	107.23
June 1998	92.33	106.93
July 1998	91.33	105.77
August 1998	95.00	105.07
September 1998	97.67	103.50
October 1998	97.33	100.90
November 1998	93.67	100.33
December 1998	89.00	100.20
January 1999	89.00	102.37
February 1999	91.33	104.17
March 1999	94.67	105.90
April 1999	92.67	106.13
May 1999	91.33	105.70
June 1999	89.33	106.23
July 1999	93.33	106.70
August 1999	91.67	105.93
September 1999	92.33	105.90
October 1999	90.67	104.97
November 1999	93.67	105.87
December 1999	93.67	105.27
January 2000	96.00	108.20
February 2000	96.00	109.57
March 2000	95.33	110.13
April 2000	94.00	109.20
May 2000	93.67	109.00
June 2000	93.33	108.77
July 2000	92.33	108.47
August 2000	93.00	107.33
September 2000	93.00	107.47
October 2000	92.00	106.63
November 2000	90.33	106.73
December 2000	92.00	103.93
January 2001	92.67	100.23
February 2001	93.67	94.57
March 2001	91.33	92.27
April 2001	90.00	90.17
May 2001	87.00	90.63
June 2001	86.67	91.00
July 2001	88.33	92.33
August 2001	91.33	92.17
September 2001	91.33	88.57
October 2001	90.67	85.33
November 2001	89.33	82.80
December 2001	92.33	85.13
January 2002	94.67	88.57
February 2002	95.67	90.83
March 2002	94.33	93.13
April 2002	93.00	93.13
May 2002	91.67	95.20
June 2002	89.33	94.10
July 2002	87.33	92.47
August 2002	88.67	89.37
September 2002	90.00	87.27
October 2002	90.33	84.77
November 2002	89.67	83.63
December 2002	90.67	83.83
January 2003	91.00	84.43
February 2003	87.33	83.00
March 2003	85.67	79.97
April 2003	86.00	81.17
May 2003	89.00	85.23
June 2003	89.33	89.27
July 2003	89.33	90.90
August 2003	88.33	89.97
September 2003	88.67	89.30
October 2003	88.33	88.87
November 2003	90.33	90.33
December 2003	89.00	91.97
January 2004	90.67	96.70
February 2004	88.00	96.93
March 2004	89.00	98.00
April 2004	85.00	94.80
May 2004	83.33	93.40
June 2004	81.67	93.33
July 2004	82.67	94.17
August 2004	83.67	96.07
September 2004	83.33	95.60
October 2004	81.33	93.93
November 2004	81.00	92.90
December 2004	83.33	93.87
January 2005	84.67	95.13
February 2005	85.67	95.57
March 2005	83.33	94.07
April 2005	80.67	91.47
May 2005	78.33	89.07
June 2005	77.67	90.20
July 2005	80.33	93.13
August 2005	80.00	93.87
September 2005	78.67	87.50
October 2005	75.00	80.07
November 2005	74.33	77.57
December 2005	77.33	82.43
January 2006	78.67	88.10
February 2006	79.00	89.80
March 2006	76.33	88.93
April 2006	78.67	87.67
May 2006	77.67	85.13
June 2006	76.33	83.80
July 2006	75.67	82.90
August 2006	78.33	83.87
September 2006	81.00	84.03
October 2006	84.33	87.00
November 2006	85.00	90.37
December 2006	86.33	92.47
January 2007	84.00	93.57
February 2007	83.67	93.30
March 2007	82.00	92.20
April 2007	80.33	88.93
May 2007	78.33	87.93
June 2007	76.00	86.90
July 2007	75.00	88.00
August 2007	74.00	86.37
September 2007	73.33	85.73
October 2007	73.00	82.57
November 2007	76.00	80.13
December 2007	77.00	77.50
January 2008	78.00	76.67
February 2008	73.67	74.90
March 2008	72.67	72.90
April 2008	67.00	67.63
May 2008	66.00	63.97
June 2008	60.33	59.60
July 2008	62.33	59.13
August 2008	61.33	60.20
September 2008	67.33	64.83
October 2008	67.00	63.63
November 2008	69.00	61.07
December 2008	65.67	57.67
January 2009	67.00	58.87
February 2009	67.33	59.20
March 2009	68.67	58.27
April 2009	68.00	59.57
May 2009	66.00	63.70
June 2009	65.67	68.20
July 2009	65.00	68.50
August 2009	66.00	67.50
September 2009	67.67	68.40
October 2009	66.67	69.93
November 2009	66.33	70.50
December 2009	66.33	70.17
January 2010	67.67	71.43
February 2010	67.00	73.50
March 2010	66.33	73.87
April 2010	65.67	73.13
May 2010	66.00	73.13
June 2010	65.67	73.93
July 2010	64.33	72.47
August 2010	64.00	70.90
September 2010	64.33	68.30
October 2010	66.00	68.27
November 2010	67.67	69.17
December 2010	66.33	71.27
January 2011	64.33	73.43
February 2011	61.33	75.40
March 2011	59.33	73.07
April 2011	58.67	71.60
May 2011	57.00	70.53
June 2011	56.00	71.87
July 2011	58.33	69.83
August 2011	59.67	63.67
September 2011	59.33	59.67
October 2011	57.67	58.70
November 2011	57.33	61.33
December 2011	58.67	64.80
January 2012	58.67	69.53
February 2012	60.00	73.40
March 2012	61.33	75.50
April 2012	61.00	75.97
May 2012	62.33	77.30
June 2012	59.67	76.30
July 2012	60.67	74.93
August 2012	58.33	73.27
September 2012	60.33	74.97
October 2012	60.33	78.40
November 2012	63.00	81.20
December 2012	62.33	79.40
January 2013	63.00	76.47
February 2013	60.33	74.77
March 2013	63.33	76.67
April 2013	64.33	77.53
May 2013	67.00	79.83
June 2013	67.33	81.67
July 2013	68.00	84.57
August 2013	68.67	83.77
September 2013	66.33	81.57
October 2013	66.33	77.60
November 2013	64.67	75.27
December 2013	66.00	76.93
January 2014	67.00	79.60
February 2014	68.67	81.77
March 2014	69.00	80.93
April 2014	66.67	81.90
May 2014	65.33	82.00
June 2014	67.00	82.83
July 2014	68.33	82.07
August 2014	69.33	82.27
September 2014	69.67	82.97
October 2014	69.67	84.67
November 2014	70.33	86.77
December 2014	72.67	89.77
January 2015	77.00	93.50
February 2015	78.33	95.70
March 2015	76.67	95.50
April 2015	76.33	94.77
May 2015	77.33	93.20
June 2015	78.00	94.23
July 2015	77.33	93.30
August 2015	78.00	93.70
September 2015	77.00	90.73
October 2015	76.33	89.70
November 2015	76.33	89.50
December 2015	79.33	91.30
January 2016	81.00	91.97
February 2016	81.67	92.10
March 2016	81.67	91.57
April 2016	79.33	90.57
May 2016	79.67	91.57
June 2016	80.33	92.67

Note: The data are three-month moving averages and extend through June 2016. June data are preliminary. Consumer sentiment is indexed to 100 in 1966. Real income expectations are calculated as the net percent of survey respondents expecting family income to go up more than prices during the next year or two, plus 100.

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Return to text

Figure 17. Changes in household debt

Billions of dollars, annual rate

Period	Mortgages	Consumer credit	Sum
2007	702.84	153.16	856.01
2008	-33.02	34.30	1.29
2009	-160.72	-88.79	-249.51
2010	-497.70	91.81	-405.88
2011	-219.63	111.06	-108.56
2012	-211.16	162.09	-49.07
2013	-86.99	175.85	88.85
2014	-0.13	221.79	221.66
2015	90.22	216.63	306.85
2016:Q1	120.86	214.02	334.89

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States."

Return to text

Figure 18. Household debt service

Quarterly

Period	Percent of disposable income
1980:Q1	10.62
1980:Q2	10.71
1980:Q3	10.46
1980:Q4	10.25
1981:Q1	10.31
1981:Q2	10.46
1981:Q3	10.36
1981:Q4	10.42
1982:Q1	10.50
1982:Q2	10.56
1982:Q3	10.46
1982:Q4	10.42
1983:Q1	10.39
1983:Q2	10.42
1983:Q3	10.42
1983:Q4	10.47
1984:Q1	10.52
1984:Q2	10.65
1984:Q3	10.76
1984:Q4	10.92
1985:Q1	11.25
1985:Q2	11.34
1985:Q3	11.63
1985:Q4	11.75
1986:Q1	11.77
1986:Q2	11.84
1986:Q3	11.94
1986:Q4	12.08
1987:Q1	11.95
1987:Q2	12.09
1987:Q3	11.96
1987:Q4	11.83
1988:Q1	11.77
1988:Q2	11.76
1988:Q3	11.71
1988:Q4	11.59
1989:Q1	11.58
1989:Q2	11.75
1989:Q3	11.81
1989:Q4	11.77
1990:Q1	11.66
1990:Q2	11.63
1990:Q3	11.60
1990:Q4	11.62
1991:Q1	11.60
1991:Q2	11.46
1991:Q3	11.35
1991:Q4	11.15
1992:Q1	10.87
1992:Q2	10.69
1992:Q3	10.55
1992:Q4	10.48
1993:Q1	10.43
1993:Q2	10.37
1993:Q3	10.43
1993:Q4	10.39
1994:Q1	10.41
1994:Q2	10.47
1994:Q3	10.60
1994:Q4	10.72
1995:Q1	10.90
1995:Q2	11.10
1995:Q3	11.21
1995:Q4	11.25
1996:Q1	11.26
1996:Q2	11.29
1996:Q3	11.34
1996:Q4	11.39
1997:Q1	11.35
1997:Q2	11.35
1997:Q3	11.36
1997:Q4	11.31
1998:Q1	11.17
1998:Q2	11.19
1998:Q3	11.17
1998:Q4	11.23
1999:Q1	11.30
1999:Q2	11.45
1999:Q3	11.58
1999:Q4	11.57
2000:Q1	11.52
2000:Q2	11.68
2000:Q3	11.86
2000:Q4	12.09
2001:Q1	12.19
2001:Q2	12.41
2001:Q3	12.34
2001:Q4	12.63
2002:Q1	12.40
2002:Q2	12.34
2002:Q3	12.39
2002:Q4	12.37
2003:Q1	12.37
2003:Q2	12.27
2003:Q3	12.13
2003:Q4	12.19
2004:Q1	12.16
2004:Q2	12.10
2004:Q3	12.22
2004:Q4	12.23
2005:Q1	12.52
2005:Q2	12.53
2005:Q3	12.56
2005:Q4	12.58
2006:Q1	12.57
2006:Q2	12.66
2006:Q3	12.76
2006:Q4	12.84
2007:Q1	12.90
2007:Q2	12.99
2007:Q3	13.08
2007:Q4	13.21
2008:Q1	13.08
2008:Q2	12.71
2008:Q3	12.81
2008:Q4	12.78
2009:Q1	12.69
2009:Q2	12.34
2009:Q3	12.19
2009:Q4	11.94
2010:Q1	11.71
2010:Q2	11.41
2010:Q3	11.21
2010:Q4	11.03
2011:Q1	10.80
2011:Q2	10.71
2011:Q3	10.59
2011:Q4	10.49
2012:Q1	10.27
2012:Q2	10.16
2012:Q3	10.16
2012:Q4	9.86
2013:Q1	10.24
2013:Q2	10.17
2013:Q3	10.13
2013:Q4	10.15
2014:Q1	10.06
2014:Q2	10.05
2014:Q3	10.03
2014:Q4	10.01
2015:Q1	10.05
2015:Q2	10.03
2015:Q3	10.04
2015:Q4	10.07
2016:Q1	10.02

Note: Debt service payments consist of estimated required payments on outstanding mortgage and consumer debt.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release, "Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios."

Return to text

Figure 19. Private housing starts and permits

Monthly
Millions of units, annual rate

Period	Multifamily starts	Single-family starts	Single-family permits
January 2002	0.37	1.31	1.29
February 2002	0.33	1.49	1.40
March 2002	0.37	1.28	1.29
April 2002	0.31	1.28	1.29
May 2002	0.36	1.39	1.29
June 2002	0.35	1.36	1.31
July 2002	0.34	1.33	1.31
August 2002	0.38	1.25	1.32
September 2002	0.36	1.45	1.37
October 2002	0.29	1.37	1.38
November 2002	0.36	1.40	1.38
December 2002	0.35	1.46	1.41
January 2003	0.32	1.54	1.42
February 2003	0.33	1.30	1.36
March 2003	0.33	1.40	1.36
April 2003	0.27	1.37	1.39
May 2003	0.36	1.39	1.39
June 2003	0.35	1.51	1.46
July 2003	0.36	1.54	1.48
August 2003	0.35	1.48	1.52
September 2003	0.38	1.56	1.53
October 2003	0.34	1.63	1.57
November 2003	0.39	1.69	1.51
December 2003	0.41	1.65	1.55
January 2004	0.35	1.56	1.54
February 2004	0.37	1.48	1.56
March 2004	0.37	1.63	1.65
April 2004	0.36	1.65	1.62
May 2004	0.33	1.65	1.68
June 2004	0.30	1.53	1.62
July 2004	0.33	1.68	1.62
August 2004	0.33	1.69	1.61
September 2004	0.35	1.56	1.59
October 2004	0.41	1.66	1.59
November 2004	0.32	1.46	1.57
December 2004	0.33	1.71	1.61
January 2005	0.41	1.74	1.65
February 2005	0.42	1.79	1.63
March 2005	0.28	1.58	1.58
April 2005	0.40	1.66	1.65
May 2005	0.31	1.71	1.64
June 2005	0.35	1.72	1.68
July 2005	0.33	1.72	1.72
August 2005	0.37	1.73	1.72
September 2005	0.36	1.79	1.80
October 2005	0.33	1.74	1.74
November 2005	0.34	1.81	1.73
December 2005	0.37	1.63	1.66
January 2006	0.45	1.82	1.69
February 2006	0.32	1.80	1.64
March 2006	0.37	1.60	1.55
April 2006	0.31	1.51	1.50
May 2006	0.37	1.57	1.45
June 2006	0.35	1.45	1.39
July 2006	0.31	1.42	1.31
August 2006	0.29	1.36	1.28
September 2006	0.34	1.38	1.22
October 2006	0.28	1.21	1.18
November 2006	0.28	1.29	1.16
December 2006	0.40	1.25	1.20
January 2007	0.28	1.13	1.17
February 2007	0.29	1.19	1.14
March 2007	0.29	1.20	1.15
April 2007	0.29	1.20	1.06
May 2007	0.29	1.13	1.04
June 2007	0.32	1.13	1.00
July 2007	0.31	1.04	0.98
August 2007	0.37	0.96	0.92
September 2007	0.25	0.94	0.86
October 2007	0.39	0.88	0.82
November 2007	0.36	0.83	0.80
December 2007	0.23	0.81	0.74
January 2008	0.31	0.77	0.71
February 2008	0.38	0.72	0.66
March 2008	0.28	0.73	0.64
April 2008	0.33	0.68	0.66
May 2008	0.29	0.68	0.63
June 2008	0.40	0.65	0.61
July 2008	0.31	0.62	0.57
August 2008	0.24	0.61	0.54
September 2008	0.28	0.54	0.53
October 2008	0.24	0.54	0.47
November 2008	0.19	0.46	0.42
December 2008	0.16	0.40	0.36
January 2009	0.13	0.36	0.34
February 2009	0.22	0.36	0.38
March 2009	0.15	0.35	0.36
April 2009	0.09	0.39	0.39
May 2009	0.13	0.41	0.43
June 2009	0.10	0.48	0.46
July 2009	0.09	0.51	0.49
August 2009	0.10	0.49	0.49
September 2009	0.08	0.51	0.48
October 2009	0.06	0.48	0.47
November 2009	0.09	0.50	0.48
December 2009	0.10	0.48	0.51
January 2010	0.10	0.51	0.50
February 2010	0.08	0.53	0.51
March 2010	0.09	0.54	0.54
April 2010	0.12	0.57	0.48
May 2010	0.13	0.46	0.44
June 2010	0.09	0.45	0.43
July 2010	0.12	0.43	0.41
August 2010	0.18	0.42	0.40
September 2010	0.15	0.45	0.40
October 2010	0.11	0.44	0.41
November 2010	0.09	0.45	0.42
December 2010	0.11	0.43	0.45
January 2011	0.20	0.43	0.42
February 2011	0.13	0.39	0.38
March 2011	0.17	0.43	0.40
April 2011	0.14	0.42	0.40
May 2011	0.15	0.41	0.41
June 2011	0.17	0.44	0.41
July 2011	0.19	0.43	0.42
August 2011	0.16	0.42	0.43
September 2011	0.23	0.42	0.43
October 2011	0.17	0.44	0.44
November 2011	0.25	0.47	0.45
December 2011	0.17	0.52	0.46
January 2012	0.21	0.52	0.46
February 2012	0.24	0.47	0.49
March 2012	0.22	0.47	0.48
April 2012	0.25	0.50	0.48
May 2012	0.19	0.52	0.50
June 2012	0.23	0.52	0.50
July 2012	0.22	0.52	0.52
August 2012	0.22	0.54	0.52
September 2012	0.25	0.59	0.56
October 2012	0.30	0.61	0.57
November 2012	0.26	0.57	0.57
December 2012	0.36	0.62	0.59
January 2013	0.28	0.61	0.59
February 2013	0.31	0.66	0.61
March 2013	0.38	0.62	0.61
April 2013	0.25	0.58	0.62
May 2013	0.32	0.60	0.62
June 2013	0.25	0.61	0.63
July 2013	0.29	0.60	0.62
August 2013	0.27	0.62	0.63
September 2013	0.28	0.58	0.62
October 2013	0.33	0.59	0.62
November 2013	0.39	0.71	0.65
December 2013	0.36	0.65	0.61
January 2014	0.32	0.58	0.62
February 2014	0.35	0.60	0.61
March 2014	0.32	0.65	0.62
April 2014	0.39	0.65	0.62
May 2014	0.35	0.64	0.63
June 2014	0.33	0.60	0.65
July 2014	0.43	0.65	0.64
August 2014	0.35	0.64	0.64
September 2014	0.34	0.66	0.66
October 2014	0.38	0.72	0.65
November 2014	0.33	0.66	0.66
December 2014	0.36	0.72	0.68
January 2015	0.39	0.71	0.67
February 2015	0.30	0.59	0.64
March 2015	0.34	0.63	0.66
April 2015	0.45	0.75	0.68
May 2015	0.37	0.69	0.69
June 2015	0.53	0.69	0.70
July 2015	0.39	0.76	0.69
August 2015	0.40	0.73	0.71
September 2015	0.45	0.74	0.71
October 2015	0.36	0.71	0.73
November 2015	0.39	0.79	0.74
December 2015	0.40	0.77	0.74
January 2016	0.35	0.78	0.73
February 2016	0.37	0.85	0.73
March 2016	0.36	0.75	0.73
April 2016	0.41	0.76	0.74
May 2016	0.40	0.76	0.73

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

Return to text

Figure 20. New and existing home sales

Monthly
Millions, annual rate

Period	Existing home sales	New home sales
January 2003	6.03	1.00
February 2003	6.02	0.94
March 2003	5.86	1.00
April 2003	5.84	1.01
May 2003	5.94	1.08
June 2003	5.94	1.19
July 2003	6.27	1.17
August 2003	6.52	1.21
September 2003	6.58	1.13
October 2003	6.39	1.14
November 2003	6.23	1.09
December 2003	6.49	1.13
January 2004	6.23	1.17
February 2004	6.41	1.16
March 2004	6.66	1.28
April 2004	6.73	1.19
May 2004	6.85	1.24
June 2004	6.92	1.18
July 2004	6.84	1.09
August 2004	6.70	1.18
September 2004	6.68	1.21
October 2004	6.85	1.31
November 2004	6.96	1.18
December 2004	6.89	1.24
January 2005	7.10	1.20
February 2005	6.88	1.32
March 2005	6.96	1.33
April 2005	7.12	1.26
May 2005	7.08	1.29
June 2005	7.18	1.27
July 2005	7.14	1.39
August 2005	7.23	1.26
September 2005	7.25	1.24
October 2005	7.10	1.34
November 2005	7.03	1.21
December 2005	6.84	1.24
January 2006	6.72	1.17
February 2006	6.84	1.06
March 2006	6.83	1.12
April 2006	6.70	1.12
May 2006	6.58	1.09
June 2006	6.48	1.07
July 2006	6.32	0.97
August 2006	6.34	1.04
September 2006	6.28	1.02
October 2006	6.36	0.94
November 2006	6.34	1.00
December 2006	6.40	1.00
January 2007	5.74	0.89
February 2007	5.79	0.83
March 2007	5.46	0.83
April 2007	5.29	0.89
May 2007	5.27	0.84
June 2007	5.12	0.79
July 2007	5.07	0.78
August 2007	4.87	0.70
September 2007	4.58	0.69
October 2007	4.43	0.73
November 2007	4.46	0.64
December 2007	4.41	0.62
January 2008	4.17	0.63
February 2008	4.12	0.59
March 2008	4.16	0.54
April 2008	4.11	0.54
May 2008	4.14	0.50
June 2008	4.09	0.49
July 2008	4.15	0.48
August 2008	4.19	0.44
September 2008	4.27	0.43
October 2008	4.09	0.39
November 2008	3.77	0.39
December 2008	4.01	0.38
January 2009	3.82	0.34
February 2009	3.97	0.37
March 2009	3.86	0.34
April 2009	3.90	0.34
May 2009	4.00	0.38
June 2009	4.10	0.39
July 2009	4.37	0.41
August 2009	4.45	0.42
September 2009	4.62	0.39
October 2009	5.02	0.40
November 2009	5.44	0.38
December 2009	4.40	0.35
January 2010	4.19	0.35
February 2010	4.27	0.34
March 2010	4.49	0.38
April 2010	4.82	0.42
May 2010	4.88	0.28
June 2010	4.45	0.31
July 2010	3.45	0.28
August 2010	3.68	0.28
September 2010	3.84	0.32
October 2010	3.83	0.29
November 2010	4.02	0.29
December 2010	4.27	0.33
January 2011	4.45	0.31
February 2011	4.15	0.27
March 2011	4.24	0.30
April 2011	4.15	0.31
May 2011	4.13	0.31
June 2011	4.19	0.30
July 2011	4.15	0.30
August 2011	4.41	0.30
September 2011	4.34	0.30
October 2011	4.35	0.32
November 2011	4.40	0.33
December 2011	4.37	0.34
January 2012	4.48	0.34
February 2012	4.58	0.37
March 2012	4.52	0.35
April 2012	4.59	0.35
May 2012	4.60	0.37
June 2012	4.47	0.36
July 2012	4.53	0.37
August 2012	4.76	0.38
September 2012	4.71	0.39
October 2012	4.79	0.36
November 2012	4.96	0.39
December 2012	4.89	0.40
January 2013	4.98	0.44
February 2013	5.06	0.44
March 2013	5.07	0.45
April 2013	5.09	0.45
May 2013	5.14	0.43
June 2013	5.11	0.46
July 2013	5.27	0.38
August 2013	5.26	0.38
September 2013	5.14	0.40
October 2013	5.04	0.44
November 2013	4.92	0.45
December 2013	4.86	0.44
January 2014	4.74	0.45
February 2014	4.72	0.42
March 2014	4.74	0.41
April 2014	4.78	0.40
May 2014	4.90	0.45
June 2014	4.97	0.42
July 2014	4.99	0.40
August 2014	4.96	0.45
September 2014	5.03	0.47
October 2014	5.14	0.47
November 2014	5.04	0.45
December 2014	5.07	0.49
January 2015	4.93	0.52
February 2015	4.97	0.55
March 2015	5.25	0.49
April 2015	5.14	0.50
May 2015	5.29	0.51
June 2015	5.41	0.47
July 2015	5.48	0.50
August 2015	5.29	0.51
September 2015	5.44	0.46
October 2015	5.29	0.48
November 2015	4.86	0.51
December 2015	5.45	0.54
January 2016	5.47	0.53
February 2016	5.07	0.54
March 2016	5.36	0.53
April 2016	5.45	0.62

Note: The data extend through April 2016. "Existing home sales" includes single-family, condo, townhome, and co-op sales.

Source: For new single-family home sales, Census Bureau; for existing home sales, National Association of Realtors.

Return to text

Figure 21. Mortgage rates and housing affordability

Housing affordability index

Period	Index
January 2007	112.14
February 2007	110.77
March 2007	112.33
April 2007	113.18
May 2007	114.99
June 2007	114.28
July 2007	115.05
August 2007	114.99
September 2007	120.46
October 2007	123.54
November 2007	123.53
December 2007	126.22
January 2008	128.79
February 2008	133.29
March 2008	132.15
April 2008	133.35
May 2008	133.54
June 2008	133.47
July 2008	135.51
August 2008	136.17
September 2008	142.81
October 2008	144.85
November 2008	147.21
December 2008	160.48
January 2009	164.86
February 2009	161.52
March 2009	163.44
April 2009	174.21
May 2009	173.74
June 2009	171.72
July 2009	168.90
August 2009	169.90
September 2009	164.46
October 2009	168.93
November 2009	172.47
December 2009	174.71
January 2010	166.36
February 2010	166.06
March 2010	167.26
April 2010	165.54
May 2010	169.10
June 2010	171.06
July 2010	174.94
August 2010	177.37
September 2010	177.21
October 2010	176.51
November 2010	177.15
December 2010	174.40
January 2011	177.33
February 2011	178.44
March 2011	178.57
April 2011	182.01
May 2011	180.22
June 2011	184.61
July 2011	191.90
August 2011	188.27
September 2011	188.59
October 2011	194.35
November 2011	189.02
December 2011	190.99
January 2012	189.42
February 2012	189.53
March 2012	196.46
April 2012	188.16
May 2012	190.45
June 2012	192.13
July 2012	195.43
August 2012	197.81
September 2012	197.87
October 2012	198.96
November 2012	197.57
December 2012	198.59
January 2013	198.47
February 2013	194.66
March 2013	188.14
April 2013	184.91
May 2013	184.74
June 2013	179.69
July 2013	171.41
August 2013	165.24
September 2013	166.07
October 2013	164.37
November 2013	167.52
December 2013	164.24
January 2014	161.42
February 2014	163.16
March 2014	165.29
April 2014	165.97
May 2014	164.70
June 2014	165.38
July 2014	166.75
August 2014	165.77
September 2014	167.43
October 2014	165.18
November 2014	166.44
December 2014	166.54
January 2015	168.75
February 2015	167.29
March 2015	166.11
April 2015	166.22
May 2015	165.60
June 2015	165.02
July 2015	165.89
August 2015	164.64
September 2015	164.74
October 2015	164.78
November 2015	163.26
December 2015	158.88
January 2016	158.25
February 2016	160.27
March 2016	163.41
April 2016	161.12

Note: The housing affordability index data are monthly through April 2016. At an index value of 100, a median-income family has exactly enough income to qualify for a median-priced home mortgage. Housing affordability is seasonally adjusted by Board staff.

Source: National Association of Realtors.

Mortgage rates

Period	Percent
3 January 2007	6.18
10 January 2007	6.21
17 January 2007	6.23
24 January 2007	6.25
31 January 2007	6.34
7 February 2007	6.28
14 February 2007	6.30
21 February 2007	6.22
28 February 2007	6.18
7 March 2007	6.14
14 March 2007	6.14
21 March 2007	6.16
28 March 2007	6.16
4 April 2007	6.17
11 April 2007	6.22
18 April 2007	6.17
25 April 2007	6.16
2 May 2007	6.16
9 May 2007	6.15
16 May 2007	6.21
23 May 2007	6.37
30 May 2007	6.42
6 June 2007	6.53
13 June 2007	6.74
20 June 2007	6.69
27 June 2007	6.67
4 July 2007	6.63
11 July 2007	6.73
18 July 2007	6.73
25 July 2007	6.69
1 August 2007	6.68
8 August 2007	6.59
15 August 2007	6.62
22 August 2007	6.52
29 August 2007	6.45
5 September 2007	6.46
12 September 2007	6.31
19 September 2007	6.34
26 September 2007	6.42
3 October 2007	6.37
10 October 2007	6.40
17 October 2007	6.40
24 October 2007	6.33
31 October 2007	6.26
7 November 2007	6.24
14 November 2007	6.24
21 November 2007	6.20
28 November 2007	6.10
5 December 2007	5.96
12 December 2007	6.11
19 December 2007	6.14
26 December 2007	6.17
2 January 2008	6.07
9 January 2008	5.87
16 January 2008	5.69
23 January 2008	5.48
30 January 2008	5.68
6 February 2008	5.67
13 February 2008	5.72
20 February 2008	6.04
27 February 2008	6.24
5 March 2008	6.03
12 March 2008	6.13
19 March 2008	5.87
26 March 2008	5.85
2 April 2008	5.88
9 April 2008	5.88
16 April 2008	5.88
23 April 2008	6.03
30 April 2008	6.06
7 May 2008	6.05
14 May 2008	6.01
21 May 2008	5.98
28 May 2008	6.08
4 June 2008	6.09
11 June 2008	6.32
18 June 2008	6.42
25 June 2008	6.45
2 July 2008	6.35
9 July 2008	6.37
16 July 2008	6.26
23 July 2008	6.63
30 July 2008	6.52
6 August 2008	6.52
13 August 2008	6.52
20 August 2008	6.47
27 August 2008	6.40
3 September 2008	6.35
10 September 2008	5.93
17 September 2008	5.78
24 September 2008	6.09
1 October 2008	6.10
8 October 2008	5.94
15 October 2008	6.46
22 October 2008	6.04
29 October 2008	6.46
5 November 2008	6.20
12 November 2008	6.14
19 November 2008	6.04
26 November 2008	5.97
3 December 2008	5.53
10 December 2008	5.47
17 December 2008	5.19
24 December 2008	5.14
31 December 2008	5.10
7 January 2009	5.01
14 January 2009	4.96
21 January 2009	5.12
28 January 2009	5.10
4 February 2009	5.25
11 February 2009	5.16
18 February 2009	5.04
25 February 2009	5.07
4 March 2009	5.15
11 March 2009	5.03
18 March 2009	4.98
25 March 2009	4.85
1 April 2009	4.78
8 April 2009	4.87
15 April 2009	4.82
22 April 2009	4.80
29 April 2009	4.78
6 May 2009	4.84
13 May 2009	4.86
20 May 2009	4.82
27 May 2009	4.91
3 June 2009	5.29
10 June 2009	5.59
17 June 2009	5.38
24 June 2009	5.42
1 July 2009	5.32
8 July 2009	5.20
15 July 2009	5.14
22 July 2009	5.20
29 July 2009	5.25
5 August 2009	5.22
12 August 2009	5.29
19 August 2009	5.12
26 August 2009	5.14
2 September 2009	5.08
9 September 2009	5.07
16 September 2009	5.04
23 September 2009	5.04
30 September 2009	4.94
7 October 2009	4.87
14 October 2009	4.92
21 October 2009	5.00
28 October 2009	5.03
4 November 2009	4.98
11 November 2009	4.91
18 November 2009	4.83
25 November 2009	4.78
2 December 2009	4.71
9 December 2009	4.81
16 December 2009	4.94
23 December 2009	5.05
30 December 2009	5.14
6 January 2010	5.09
13 January 2010	5.06
20 January 2010	4.99
27 January 2010	4.98
3 February 2010	5.01
10 February 2010	4.97
17 February 2010	4.93
24 February 2010	5.05
3 March 2010	4.97
10 March 2010	4.95
17 March 2010	4.96
24 March 2010	4.99
31 March 2010	5.08
7 April 2010	5.21
14 April 2010	5.07
21 April 2010	5.07
28 April 2010	5.06
5 May 2010	5.00
12 May 2010	4.93
19 May 2010	4.84
26 May 2010	4.78
2 June 2010	4.79
9 June 2010	4.72
16 June 2010	4.75
23 June 2010	4.69
30 June 2010	4.58
7 July 2010	4.57
14 July 2010	4.57
21 July 2010	4.56
28 July 2010	4.54
4 August 2010	4.49
11 August 2010	4.44
18 August 2010	4.42
25 August 2010	4.36
1 September 2010	4.32
8 September 2010	4.35
15 September 2010	4.37
22 September 2010	4.37
29 September 2010	4.32
6 October 2010	4.27
13 October 2010	4.19
20 October 2010	4.21
27 October 2010	4.23
3 November 2010	4.24
10 November 2010	4.17
17 November 2010	4.39
24 November 2010	4.40
1 December 2010	4.46
8 December 2010	4.61
15 December 2010	4.83
22 December 2010	4.81
29 December 2010	4.86
5 January 2011	4.77
12 January 2011	4.71
19 January 2011	4.74
26 January 2011	4.80
2 February 2011	4.81
9 February 2011	5.05
16 February 2011	5.00
23 February 2011	4.95
2 March 2011	4.87
9 March 2011	4.88
16 March 2011	4.76
23 March 2011	4.81
30 March 2011	4.86
6 April 2011	4.87
13 April 2011	4.91
20 April 2011	4.80
27 April 2011	4.78
4 May 2011	4.71
11 May 2011	4.63
18 May 2011	4.61
25 May 2011	4.60
1 June 2011	4.55
8 June 2011	4.49
15 June 2011	4.50
22 June 2011	4.50
29 June 2011	4.51
6 July 2011	4.60
13 July 2011	4.51
20 July 2011	4.52
27 July 2011	4.55
3 August 2011	4.39
10 August 2011	4.32
17 August 2011	4.15
24 August 2011	4.22
31 August 2011	4.22
7 September 2011	4.12
14 September 2011	4.09
21 September 2011	4.09
28 September 2011	4.01
5 October 2011	3.94
12 October 2011	4.12
19 October 2011	4.11
26 October 2011	4.10
2 November 2011	4.00
9 November 2011	3.99
16 November 2011	4.00
23 November 2011	3.98
30 November 2011	4.00
7 December 2011	3.99
14 December 2011	3.94
21 December 2011	3.91
28 December 2011	3.95
4 January 2012	3.91
11 January 2012	3.89
18 January 2012	3.88
25 January 2012	3.98
1 February 2012	3.87
8 February 2012	3.87
15 February 2012	3.87
22 February 2012	3.95
29 February 2012	3.90
7 March 2012	3.88
14 March 2012	3.92
21 March 2012	4.08
28 March 2012	3.99
4 April 2012	3.98
11 April 2012	3.88
18 April 2012	3.90
25 April 2012	3.88
2 May 2012	3.84
9 May 2012	3.83
16 May 2012	3.79
23 May 2012	3.78
30 May 2012	3.75
6 June 2012	3.67
13 June 2012	3.71
20 June 2012	3.66
27 June 2012	3.66
4 July 2012	3.62
11 July 2012	3.56
18 July 2012	3.53
25 July 2012	3.49
1 August 2012	3.55
8 August 2012	3.59
15 August 2012	3.62
22 August 2012	3.66
29 August 2012	3.59
5 September 2012	3.55
12 September 2012	3.55
19 September 2012	3.49
26 September 2012	3.40
3 October 2012	3.36
10 October 2012	3.39
17 October 2012	3.37
24 October 2012	3.41
31 October 2012	3.39
7 November 2012	3.40
14 November 2012	3.34
21 November 2012	3.31
28 November 2012	3.32
5 December 2012	3.34
12 December 2012	3.32
19 December 2012	3.37
26 December 2012	3.35
2 January 2013	3.34
9 January 2013	3.40
16 January 2013	3.38
23 January 2013	3.42
30 January 2013	3.53
6 February 2013	3.53
13 February 2013	3.53
20 February 2013	3.56
27 February 2013	3.51
6 March 2013	3.52
13 March 2013	3.63
20 March 2013	3.54
27 March 2013	3.57
3 April 2013	3.54
10 April 2013	3.43
17 April 2013	3.41
24 April 2013	3.40
1 May 2013	3.35
8 May 2013	3.42
15 May 2013	3.51
22 May 2013	3.59
29 May 2013	3.81
5 June 2013	3.91
12 June 2013	3.98
19 June 2013	3.93
26 June 2013	4.46
3 July 2013	4.29
10 July 2013	4.51
17 July 2013	4.37
24 July 2013	4.31
31 July 2013	4.39
7 August 2013	4.40
14 August 2013	4.40
21 August 2013	4.58
28 August 2013	4.51
4 September 2013	4.57
11 September 2013	4.57
18 September 2013	4.50
25 September 2013	4.32
2 October 2013	4.22
9 October 2013	4.23
16 October 2013	4.28
23 October 2013	4.13
30 October 2013	4.10
6 November 2013	4.16
13 November 2013	4.35
20 November 2013	4.22
27 November 2013	4.29
4 December 2013	4.46
11 December 2013	4.42
18 December 2013	4.47
25 December 2013	4.48
1 January 2014	4.53
8 January 2014	4.51
15 January 2014	4.41
22 January 2014	4.39
29 January 2014	4.32
5 February 2014	4.23
12 February 2014	4.28
19 February 2014	4.33
26 February 2014	4.37
5 March 2014	4.28
12 March 2014	4.37
19 March 2014	4.32
26 March 2014	4.40
2 April 2014	4.41
9 April 2014	4.34
16 April 2014	4.27
23 April 2014	4.33
30 April 2014	4.29
7 May 2014	4.21
14 May 2014	4.20
21 May 2014	4.14
28 May 2014	4.12
4 June 2014	4.14
11 June 2014	4.20
18 June 2014	4.17
25 June 2014	4.14
2 July 2014	4.12
9 July 2014	4.15
16 July 2014	4.13
23 July 2014	4.13
30 July 2014	4.12
6 August 2014	4.14
13 August 2014	4.12
20 August 2014	4.10
27 August 2014	4.10
3 September 2014	4.10
10 September 2014	4.12
17 September 2014	4.23
24 September 2014	4.20
1 October 2014	4.19
8 October 2014	4.12
15 October 2014	3.97
22 October 2014	3.92
29 October 2014	3.98
5 November 2014	4.02
12 November 2014	4.01
19 November 2014	3.99
26 November 2014	3.97
3 December 2014	3.89
10 December 2014	3.93
17 December 2014	3.80
24 December 2014	3.83
31 December 2014	3.87
7 January 2015	3.73
14 January 2015	3.66
21 January 2015	3.63
28 January 2015	3.66
4 February 2015	3.59
11 February 2015	3.69
18 February 2015	3.76
25 February 2015	3.80
4 March 2015	3.75
11 March 2015	3.86
18 March 2015	3.78
25 March 2015	3.69
1 April 2015	3.70
8 April 2015	3.66
15 April 2015	3.67
22 April 2015	3.65
29 April 2015	3.68
6 May 2015	3.80
13 May 2015	3.85
20 May 2015	3.84
27 May 2015	3.87
3 June 2015	3.87
10 June 2015	4.04
17 June 2015	4.00
24 June 2015	4.02
1 July 2015	4.08
8 July 2015	4.04
15 July 2015	4.09
22 July 2015	4.04
29 July 2015	3.98
5 August 2015	3.91
12 August 2015	3.94
19 August 2015	3.93
26 August 2015	3.84
2 September 2015	3.89
9 September 2015	3.90
16 September 2015	3.91
23 September 2015	3.86
30 September 2015	3.85
7 October 2015	3.76
14 October 2015	3.82
21 October 2015	3.79
28 October 2015	3.76
4 November 2015	3.87
11 November 2015	3.98
18 November 2015	3.97
25 November 2015	3.95
2 December 2015	3.93
9 December 2015	3.95
16 December 2015	3.97
23 December 2015	3.96
30 December 2015	4.01
6 January 2016	3.97
13 January 2016	3.92
20 January 2016	3.81
27 January 2016	3.79
3 February 2016	3.72
10 February 2016	3.65
17 February 2016	3.65
24 February 2016	3.62
2 March 2016	3.64
9 March 2016	3.68
16 March 2016	3.73
23 March 2016	3.71
30 March 2016	3.71
6 April 2016	3.59
13 April 2016	3.58
20 April 2016	3.59
27 April 2016	3.66
4 May 2016	3.61
11 May 2016	3.57
18 May 2016	3.58
25 May 2016	3.64
1 June 2016	3.66
8 June 2016	3.60
15 June 2016	3.54

Note: The mortgage rate data are weekly through June 15, 2016.

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

Return to text

Figure 22. Change in real private nonresidential fixed investment

Percent, annual rate

Period	Structures	Equipment and intangible capital
2007	17.11	3.91
2008	-1.20	-11.76
2009	-27.11	-6.00
2010	-3.96	11.98
2011	8.01	9.21
2012	4.12	5.53
2013	6.53	3.61
2014	5.04	5.69
2015	-3.52	2.97
2016:Q1	-8.91	-5.48

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Return to text

Figure 23. Corporate bond yields, by securities rating

Series: High-yield, triple-B, and double-A

Horizon: 1997 to 2016

Description: Daily data are plotted as three curves. Units are percentage points. All three curves follow a similar pattern.

The high-yield series starts in 1997 at just under 10. The series declines generally to about 8.8 in 1998:Q1 before increasing generally to about 13 by the end of 2000. The series then decreases, bottoming out at around 7.3 in early 2005. The series fluctuates in small increments around 8 before beginning to increase in mid-2007. At the beginning of 2008:Q4, the series jumps quickly, and it nearly reaches 20 in 2009. The series then declines quickly to around 14, experiences another jump to about 17 in 2009:Q1, and then continues to decline generally, landing near 7 in early 2012. After increasing slightly to around 7.7 in mid-2012, the series resumes its fall, reaching below 6 in 2013:Q2. The series increases to slightly below 7 through 2014:Q4 before falling again in early 2015. The series rises starting in mid-2015 and climbs above 8 in early 2016 before falling for the remainder of 2016, reaching a little under 7 on June 16, 2016.

The triple-B series starts in 1997 at about 7.5. It declines generally to about 6.5 in 1998:Q4. The series fluctuates between about 6 and about 8 until mid-2003, when it decreases generally to around 5. It gradually climbs back up to 7 by mid-2008 and then increases quickly, reaching nearly 10 later that year. The series sharply declines throughout 2009, reaching about 6 by the end of the year; it then continues to decline more gradually, dipping below 4 near the end of 2012 and again in 2013:Q1. The series increases, reaching a little above 5 in 2014:Q1 before falling to just above 4 by mid-2014. The series falls below 4 in early 2015 before rising to almost 4.75 in early 2016. The series then declines over the first half of 2016 and reaches one of its lowest points at about 3.9 on June 16, 2016.

The double-A series starts in 1997 at about 7. The series declines generally to about 5.5 in 1998:Q4 before increasing generally to about 8 in 2000:Q2. The series then decreases generally to just above 4 in mid-2003. The series remains between about 5 and about 6 through the beginning of 2008. Then it increases quickly, reaching about 8.5 by 2008:Q4. The series sharply declines in late 2008 and early 2009 and then continues to fall more gradually until it reaches about 2.5 by the end of 2012. The series increases through the end of 2013 to around 4 but then falls through January 2015 to just under 3. It then rises to about 3.75 by mid-2015 before falling in 2016, reaching around 2.75 on June 16, 2016.

Note: The yields shown are yields on 10-year bonds.

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, used with permission.

Return to text

Figure 24. Selected components of net debt financing for nonfinancial businesses

Billions of dollars, monthly rate

Period	Bank loans	Bonds	Commercial paper	Sum
2006	11.44	6.19	1.87	19.50
2007	19.76	9.99	0.94	30.70
2008	15.31	9.74	0.64	25.69
2009	-28.00	17.93	-6.09	-16.16
2010	-8.65	14.96	2.04	8.35
2011	10.47	13.52	2.78	26.77
2012	13.84	27.07	1.17	42.08
2013	8.01	23.17	1.18	32.36
2014	13.08	22.66	3.12	38.86
2015	14.72	33.50	-0.45	47.76
2016:Q1	26.98	44.07	2.83	73.88

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States."

Return to text

Figure 25. U.S. trade and current account balances

Quarterly
Percent of nominal GDP

Period	Trade	Current account
1996:Q1	-1.19	-1.39
1996:Q2	-1.26	-1.48
1996:Q3	-1.50	-1.77
1996:Q4	-1.18	-1.52
1997:Q1	-1.40	-1.72
1997:Q2	-1.11	-1.35
1997:Q3	-1.15	-1.51
1997:Q4	-1.37	-1.96
1998:Q1	-1.58	-1.98
1998:Q2	-1.84	-2.28
1998:Q3	-1.96	-2.58
1998:Q4	-1.92	-2.61
1999:Q1	-2.23	-2.65
1999:Q2	-2.58	-2.92
1999:Q3	-2.85	-3.24
1999:Q4	-3.03	-3.40
2000:Q1	-3.52	-3.86
2000:Q2	-3.49	-3.84
2000:Q3	-3.69	-4.12
2000:Q4	-3.79	-4.14
2001:Q1	-3.69	-4.07
2001:Q2	-3.30	-3.61
2001:Q3	-3.36	-3.93
2001:Q4	-3.27	-3.28
2002:Q1	-3.41	-3.84
2002:Q2	-3.75	-4.21
2002:Q3	-3.84	-4.16
2002:Q4	-4.25	-4.47
2003:Q1	-4.40	-4.81
2003:Q2	-4.31	-4.55
2003:Q3	-4.23	-4.49
2003:Q4	-4.24	-4.29
2004:Q1	-4.51	-4.59
2004:Q2	-4.94	-5.15
2004:Q3	-5.05	-5.16
2004:Q4	-5.36	-5.73
2005:Q1	-5.17	-5.30
2005:Q2	-5.29	-5.53
2005:Q3	-5.49	-5.64
2005:Q4	-5.85	-6.27
2006:Q1	-5.63	-5.80
2006:Q2	-5.54	-5.87
2006:Q3	-5.73	-6.21
2006:Q4	-5.09	-5.41
2007:Q1	-5.00	-5.60
2007:Q2	-4.97	-5.25
2007:Q3	-4.80	-4.69
2007:Q4	-4.72	-4.34
2008:Q1	-5.06	-4.99
2008:Q2	-5.03	-4.81
2008:Q3	-5.11	-4.77
2008:Q4	-4.05	-4.19
2009:Q1	-2.64	-2.73
2009:Q2	-2.27	-2.48
2009:Q3	-2.74	-2.62
2009:Q4	-2.99	-2.82
2010:Q1	-3.21	-2.95
2010:Q2	-3.46	-3.06
2010:Q3	-3.44	-3.13
2010:Q4	-3.11	-2.68
2011:Q1	-3.53	-3.10
2011:Q2	-3.59	-3.13
2011:Q3	-3.44	-2.78
2011:Q4	-3.58	-2.86
2012:Q1	-3.63	-3.01
2012:Q2	-3.39	-2.90
2012:Q3	-3.14	-2.60
2012:Q4	-3.14	-2.55
2013:Q1	-2.91	-2.41
2013:Q2	-2.85	-2.30
2013:Q3	-2.80	-2.22
2013:Q4	-2.53	-1.88
2014:Q1	-2.84	-2.23
2014:Q2	-2.91	-2.18
2014:Q3	-2.73	-2.18
2014:Q4	-2.83	-2.45
2015:Q1	-2.87	-2.60
2015:Q2	-2.77	-2.50
2015:Q3	-2.78	-2.73
2015:Q4	-2.74	-2.50
2016:Q1	-2.67	-2.74

Note: GDP is gross domestic product.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Return to text

Figure 26. Change in real government expenditures on consumption and investment

Percent, annual rate

Period	Federal	State and local
2008	8.37	0.22
2009	3.94	1.30
2010	3.25	-4.03
2011	-4.01	-2.35
2012	-2.14	-2.27
2013	-6.85	-0.16
2014	-0.77	1.10
2015	0.90	1.25
2016:Q1	-1.59	2.91

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Return to text

Figure 27. Federal receipts and expenditures

Annual
Percent of nominal GDP

Period	Expenditures	Receipts
1996	19.56	18.21
1997	18.87	18.62
1998	18.45	19.23
1999	17.89	19.22
2000	17.63	19.96
2001	17.63	18.85
2002	18.49	17.04
2003	19.06	15.73
2004	18.97	15.55
2005	19.18	16.71
2006	19.40	17.59
2007	19.05	17.93
2008	20.22	17.11
2009	24.40	14.60
2010	23.36	14.61
2011	23.43	14.98
2012	22.07	15.29
2013	20.94	16.82
2014	20.39	17.58
2015	20.71	18.24
2016	20.68	18.05

Note: Through 2015, receipts and expenditures are for fiscal years (October to September); gross domestic product (GDP) is for the four quarters ending in Q3. For 2016, receipts and expenditures are for the 12 months ending in May, and GDP is the average of 2015:Q4 and 2016:Q1. Receipts and expenditures are on a unified-budget basis.

Source: Office of Management and Budget.

Return to text

Figure 28. Federal government debt held by the public

Quarterly

Period	Percent of nominal GDP
1966:Q1	32.64
1966:Q2	31.70
1966:Q3	31.33
1966:Q4	31.54
1967:Q1	31.43
1967:Q2	30.29
1967:Q3	30.72
1967:Q4	31.29
1968:Q1	30.96
1968:Q2	29.73
1968:Q3	30.05
1968:Q4	29.78
1969:Q1	29.03
1969:Q2	27.34
1969:Q3	27.23
1969:Q4	27.47
1970:Q1	27.32
1970:Q2	26.32
1970:Q3	26.55
1970:Q4	27.30
1971:Q1	26.36
1971:Q2	26.01
1971:Q3	26.30
1971:Q4	27.06
1972:Q1	26.50
1972:Q2	25.27
1972:Q3	25.19
1972:Q4	25.38
1973:Q1	25.08
1973:Q2	23.96
1973:Q3	23.56
1973:Q4	23.33
1974:Q1	23.31
1974:Q2	22.32
1974:Q3	22.18
1974:Q4	22.27
1975:Q1	23.26
1975:Q2	23.76
1975:Q3	24.34
1975:Q4	25.08
1976:Q1	25.60
1976:Q2	25.65
1976:Q3	26.16
1976:Q4	26.42
1977:Q1	26.59
1977:Q2	25.67
1977:Q3	25.83
1977:Q4	26.21
1978:Q1	26.67
1978:Q2	25.32
1978:Q3	25.28
1978:Q4	25.02
1979:Q1	24.93
1979:Q2	24.14
1979:Q3	23.93
1979:Q4	24.06
1980:Q1	24.12
1980:Q2	24.32
1980:Q3	24.78
1980:Q4	24.53
1981:Q1	24.54
1981:Q2	24.19
1981:Q3	24.05
1981:Q4	24.97
1982:Q1	26.04
1982:Q2	25.86
1982:Q3	27.29
1982:Q4	28.80
1983:Q1	29.80
1983:Q2	30.25
1983:Q3	30.63
1983:Q4	30.74
1984:Q1	31.07
1984:Q2	31.04
1984:Q3	31.80
1984:Q4	32.89
1985:Q1	33.20
1985:Q2	33.76
1985:Q3	34.12
1985:Q4	35.70
1986:Q1	36.03
1986:Q2	36.85
1986:Q3	37.58
1986:Q4	38.67
1987:Q1	38.72
1987:Q2	38.70
1987:Q3	38.53
1987:Q4	38.82
1988:Q1	39.11
1988:Q2	38.60
1988:Q3	38.69
1988:Q4	38.89
1989:Q1	38.76
1989:Q2	38.24
1989:Q3	38.35
1989:Q4	39.06
1990:Q1	39.21
1990:Q2	39.29
1990:Q3	39.98
1990:Q4	41.47
1991:Q1	42.09
1991:Q2	42.19
1991:Q3	43.21
1991:Q4	44.21
1992:Q1	44.82
1992:Q2	45.03
1992:Q3	45.53
1992:Q4	45.99
1993:Q1	46.53
1993:Q2	46.87
1993:Q3	47.03
1993:Q4	47.44
1994:Q1	47.47
1994:Q2	46.71
1994:Q3	46.68
1994:Q4	46.71
1995:Q1	47.15
1995:Q2	47.12
1995:Q3	46.76
1995:Q4	46.63
1996:Q1	47.09
1996:Q2	45.82
1996:Q3	45.75
1996:Q4	45.63
1997:Q1	45.58
1997:Q2	43.97
1997:Q3	43.39
1997:Q4	43.29
1998:Q1	43.09
1998:Q2	41.68
1998:Q3	40.67
1998:Q4	40.23
1999:Q1	39.80
1999:Q2	38.21
1999:Q3	37.41
1999:Q4	37.08
2000:Q1	36.42
2000:Q2	33.70
2000:Q3	32.92
2000:Q4	32.32
2001:Q1	32.44
2001:Q2	30.56
2001:Q3	31.20
2001:Q4	31.58
2002:Q1	31.66
2002:Q2	31.56
2002:Q3	32.08
2002:Q4	32.74
2003:Q1	32.93
2003:Q2	33.46
2003:Q3	33.65
2003:Q4	34.11
2004:Q1	34.76
2004:Q2	34.54
2004:Q3	34.70
2004:Q4	34.97
2005:Q1	35.57
2005:Q2	34.80
2005:Q3	34.74
2005:Q4	35.13
2006:Q1	35.58
2006:Q2	34.65
2006:Q3	34.69
2006:Q4	34.72
2007:Q1	35.38
2007:Q2	34.15
2007:Q3	34.53
2007:Q4	34.87
2008:Q1	36.27
2008:Q2	35.59
2008:Q3	39.07
2008:Q4	43.71
2009:Q1	47.45
2009:Q2	49.95
2009:Q3	52.43
2009:Q4	53.57
2010:Q1	56.41
2010:Q2	57.93
2010:Q3	59.87
2010:Q4	61.61
2011:Q1	63.29
2011:Q2	62.98
2011:Q3	64.96
2011:Q4	66.21
2012:Q1	67.92
2012:Q2	68.53
2012:Q3	69.50
2012:Q4	71.13
2013:Q1	72.56
2013:Q2	72.07
2013:Q3	71.62
2013:Q4	72.84
2014:Q1	74.27
2014:Q2	72.77
2014:Q3	72.92
2014:Q4	73.90
2015:Q1	74.14
2015:Q2	72.96
2015:Q3	72.62
2015:Q4	75.24
2016:Q1	76.35

Note: The data for gross domestic product (GDP) are at an annual rate. Federal debt held by the public equals federal debt less Treasury securities held in federal employee defined benefit retirement accounts, evaluated at the end of the quarter.

Source: For GDP, Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; for federal debt, Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States."

Return to text

Figure 29. State and local government employment change

Period	Thousands of jobs, monthly average
2004	13.25
2005	15.08
2006	17.67
2007	21.83
2008	13.42
2009	-10.83
2010	-21.25
2011	-23.17
2012	-3.33
2013	-0.08
2014	10.33
2015	5.92
2016:H1	6.33

Note: The value for 2016:H1 is calculated with data extending through May. The value for 2013 is -0.08.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Return to text

Developments Related to Financial Stability: Figure A. Regulatory capital ratios at the top 25 bank holding companies

Quarterly
Percent

Period	Common equity tier 1 ratio	Leverage ratio
2001:Q1	7.8	6.8
2001:Q2	7.9	6.8
2001:Q3	7.7	6.8
2001:Q4	7.8	6.7
2002:Q1	7.9	6.8
2002:Q2	8.0	6.8
2002:Q3	8.0	6.8
2002:Q4	7.9	6.7
2003:Q1	7.9	6.7
2003:Q2	7.9	6.8
2003:Q3	8.0	6.7
2003:Q4	8.1	6.8
2004:Q1	8.0	6.8
2004:Q2	7.9	6.6
2004:Q3	7.9	6.7
2004:Q4	7.9	6.6
2005:Q1	7.9	6.5
2005:Q2	7.9	6.5
2005:Q3	7.7	6.5
2005:Q4	7.7	6.5
2006:Q1	7.6	6.4
2006:Q2	7.5	6.3
2006:Q3	7.5	6.4
2006:Q4	7.5	6.4
2007:Q1	7.4	6.3
2007:Q2	7.1	6.0
2007:Q3	6.8	5.8
2007:Q4	6.4	5.6
2008:Q1	6.2	5.7
2008:Q2	6.0	5.9
2008:Q3	5.8	5.7
2008:Q4	5.6	6.9
2009:Q1	5.9	7.1
2009:Q2	6.7	7.2
2009:Q3	7.6	7.4
2009:Q4	8.2	7.2
2010:Q1	8.6	7.1
2010:Q2	8.9	7.2
2010:Q3	9.3	7.4
2010:Q4	9.7	7.6
2011:Q1	10.0	7.7
2011:Q2	10.1	7.6
2011:Q3	10.2	7.5
2011:Q4	10.5	7.7
2012:Q1	11.0	8.2
2012:Q2	11.0	8.1
2012:Q3	11.2	8.2
2012:Q4	11.4	8.3
2013:Q1	11.1	8.4
2013:Q2	11.3	8.4
2013:Q3	11.5	8.6
2013:Q4	11.6	8.6
2014:Q1	12.3	8.8
2014:Q2	11.7	8.9
2014:Q3	11.7	9.0
2014:Q4	11.7	9.0
2015:Q1	11.6	9.0
2015:Q2	11.8	9.2
2015:Q3	11.9	9.3
2015:Q4	11.9	9.4
2016:Q1	11.8	9.3

Note: The common equity tier 1 ratio equals core equity capital divided by risk-weighted assets, while the leverage ratio equals tier 1 capital divided by average total consolidated assets. Exact calculations for the two regulatory capital ratios can be found in schedule HC-R of the Federal Reserve Board's reporting form FR Y-9C. Before 2014:Q1, the numerator of the common equity tier 1 ratio is tier 1 common capital. Beginning in 2014:Q1 for advanced approaches bank holding companies and in 2015:Q1 for all other bank holding companies, the numerator is common equity tier 1 capital. The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Bank Holding Companies.

Return to text

Figure 30. Yields on nominal Treasury securities

Series: 5-, 10-, and 30-year yields on nominal Treasury securities

Horizon: January 1, 2000, to June 16, 2016

Description: Daily data are plotted as three curves. Units are percent. The curves follow similar patterns and rarely intersect.

The 5-year Treasury yield curve starts in 2000 at about 6.5 and declines steeply to just above 2 in 2003. The series gradually increases over the next three years to roughly 5 in 2006, where it stays until dropping to around 1.5 in late 2008. The series increases in the beginning of 2009 to roughly 2.5, and it remains between 2 and 3 until declining to about 1 during 2010. The series rises back above 2 in early 2011 but falls again below 1 in late 2011, where it stays until mid-2013. In mid-2013, the series has its last sharp increase to roughly 1.5. The series generally stays between 1 and 2 from mid-2013 until its end in June 2016.

The 10-year Treasury yield curve starts in 2000 at slightly above 6.5, but it does not fall as steeply as the 5-year Treasury yield curve and reaches a low of roughly 3.5 in 2003. The series gradually increases over the next three years to roughly 5 in 2006, once again at the same level as the 5-year Treasury yield curve. After 2007, the 10-year Treasury yield curve remains above the 5-year Treasury yield curve by roughly 1 percentage point. The curve drops below 2.5 in late 2008. The series then increases in the beginning of 2009 to nearly 4, and it remains between 3 and 4 until declining and returning to 2.5 during 2010. The series rises back above 3 in early 2011 but falls again below 2 in late 2011, where it stays until mid-2013. In mid-2013, the series has its last sharp increase to around 2.75. The series generally hovers between 1.5 and 2.5 from mid-2013 until its end in June 2016.

The 30-year Treasury yield curve starts in 2000 at slightly above 6.5 and gradually falls to just above 5.25 in early 2002, when the series breaks. The series resumes in early 2006 at roughly 4.5 and hovers around this value until late 2008, when the series rapidly dives down to 2.5. The series rises back above 4 in mid-2009, where it remains until declining to about 3.75 during 2010. The series rises back near 4.5 in early 2011 but falls below 3 in late 2011, where it stays until mid-2013. In mid-2013, the series has its last sharp increase to nearly 4. The series falls gradually to 2.25 in early 2015, reaching a level close to the 10-year Treasury yield. The series then rises and hovers between 2.5 and 3.5 from mid-2015 until its end in June 2016.

Note: The Treasury ceased publication of the 30-year constant maturity series on February 18, 2002, and resumed that series on February 9, 2006.

Source: Department of the Treasury.

Return to text

Figure 31. Yield and spread on agency mortgage-backed securities

Series: Yield and spread on agency mortgage-backed securities

Horizon: January 1, 2000, to June 16, 2016

Description: Daily data are plotted as two curves. Units for the yield series are percent and are along the left axis. Units for the spread series are basis points and are along the right axis. The curves generally move in opposite directions from 2000 to 2007 and in a similar direction from 2008 to 2016.

The yield series starts in January 2000 at approximately 8 and declines to approximately 4.25 by mid-2003. The series then increases to approximately 6.25 by mid-2006 before declining to approximately 4 by early 2009 and approximately 2 by late 2012. The series increases again to approximately 3.75 by late 2013 and ends at approximately 2.5 in June 2016.

The spread series starts in January 2000 at approximately 125 and increases to approximately 175 by late 2002. The series declines to approximately 100 by early 2007 then spikes to approximately 275, where it remains throughout 2008 before declining to approximately 150 by mid-2009. The series fluctuates between 100 and 150 from late 2009 through early 2015, with a brief decline below 100 in late 2012. The series ends at approximately 100 in June 2016.

Note: The data are daily. Yield shown is for the Fannie Mae 30-year current coupon, the coupon rate at which new mortgage-backed securities would be priced at par, or face, value. Spread shown is to the average of the 5- and 10-year nominal Treasury yields.

Source: Department of the Treasury; Barclays.

Return to text

Figure 32. Equity prices

Series: Dow Jones bank index and S&P 500 index

Horizon: January 1, 1994, to June 16, 2016

Description: Daily data are plotted as two curves. Units for both series have been indexed to 100 based on their respective values on December 31, 2007. The curves follow a similar pattern.

The Dow Jones bank index series starts in January 1994 at approximately 30. The series increases to approximately 110 in 1998, after which it fluctuates between about 70 and 100 from 1999 through 2003. The series then increases to approximately 140 in early 2007 before falling sharply to approximately 20 in early 2009. The series gradually recovers over the next several years, rising to approximately 80 in mid-2015 before dropping slightly to approximately 65 in early 2016. The series has steadily increased throughout the year to approximately 70 in June 2016.

The S&P 500 index series starts in January 1994 at approximately 30. The series increases to approximately 100 in 2000 before falling to approximately 50 by the end of 2002. The series then increases to approximately 100 in early 2007, after which it sharply falls to approximately 50 in early 2009. The series increases over the next several years to around 140 in 2015 before fluctuating between approximately 120 and 140 until June 2016.

Note: For Dow Jones Indices licensing information, see the note on the Contents page (or Figure 14).

Source: Standard and Poor's Dow Jones Indices via Bloomberg.

Return to text

Figure 33. Ratio of total commercial bank credit to nominal gross domestic product

Quarterly

Period	Percent
2005:Q1	62.78
2005:Q2	63.52
2005:Q3	64.01
2005:Q4	64.34
2006:Q1	64.41
2006:Q2	65.50
2006:Q3	66.38
2006:Q4	66.60
2007:Q1	67.19
2007:Q2	67.59
2007:Q3	68.61
2007:Q4	69.70
2008:Q1	70.91
2008:Q2	70.58
2008:Q3	70.60
2008:Q4	72.52
2009:Q1	72.19
2009:Q2	71.52
2009:Q3	69.59
2009:Q4	67.04
2010:Q1	65.46
2010:Q2	63.61
2010:Q3	62.87
2010:Q4	62.26
2011:Q1	61.95
2011:Q2	60.91
2011:Q3	60.92
2011:Q4	60.97
2012:Q1	60.86
2012:Q2	60.84
2012:Q3	61.17
2012:Q4	61.39
2013:Q1	61.31
2013:Q2	61.17
2013:Q3	60.48
2013:Q4	60.01
2014:Q1	60.74
2014:Q2	60.85
2014:Q3	61.08
2014:Q4	61.62
2015:Q1	62.87
2015:Q2	63.09
2015:Q3	63.47
2015:Q4	64.08
2016:Q1	64.96

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release H.8, "Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States"; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Return to text

Figure 34. Profitability of bank holding companies

Quarterly
Percent, annual rate

Period	Return on assets	Return on equity
1996:Q1	1.07	14.15
1996:Q2	1.23	15.73
1996:Q3	1.18	14.80
1996:Q4	1.27	16.05
1997:Q1	1.25	15.99
1997:Q2	1.17	15.18
1997:Q3	1.21	15.54
1997:Q4	1.24	16.07
1998:Q1	1.14	15.06
1998:Q2	1.21	15.83
1998:Q3	1.04	13.20
1998:Q4	1.04	14.60
1999:Q1	1.26	16.61
1999:Q2	1.27	17.07
1999:Q3	1.37	18.01
1999:Q4	1.31	17.51
2000:Q1	1.29	17.64
2000:Q2	0.91	12.61
2000:Q3	1.19	16.18
2000:Q4	1.13	15.20
2001:Q1	0.99	13.27
2001:Q2	0.92	12.13
2001:Q3	0.86	11.01
2001:Q4	0.92	11.90
2002:Q1	1.15	14.71
2002:Q2	1.11	14.00
2002:Q3	1.14	14.25
2002:Q4	1.03	13.12
2003:Q1	1.16	14.57
2003:Q2	1.24	15.79
2003:Q3	1.28	16.46
2003:Q4	1.34	17.20
2004:Q1	1.27	16.41
2004:Q2	1.02	13.12
2004:Q3	1.19	14.69
2004:Q4	1.24	14.98
2005:Q1	1.18	14.17
2005:Q2	1.20	14.36
2005:Q3	1.25	15.20
2005:Q4	1.20	14.68
2006:Q1	1.16	14.41
2006:Q2	1.20	14.82
2006:Q3	1.24	15.54
2006:Q4	1.31	16.16
2007:Q1	1.02	12.70
2007:Q2	1.12	13.97
2007:Q3	0.74	9.70
2007:Q4	-0.12	-1.66
2008:Q1	0.14	2.10
2008:Q2	-0.09	-1.47
2008:Q3	-0.65	-8.53
2008:Q4	-1.61	-21.75
2009:Q1	0.03	0.85
2009:Q2	-0.02	-0.46
2009:Q3	0.13	1.62
2009:Q4	0.09	1.02
2010:Q1	0.41	4.91
2010:Q2	0.57	6.49
2010:Q3	0.41	4.61
2010:Q4	0.50	5.40
2011:Q1	0.60	6.32
2011:Q2	0.46	4.96
2011:Q3	0.92	9.82
2011:Q4	0.58	6.06
2012:Q1	0.57	5.62
2012:Q2	0.73	7.26
2012:Q3	0.72	7.10
2012:Q4	0.88	8.49
2013:Q1	0.80	7.58
2013:Q2	0.88	8.35
2013:Q3	0.82	7.77
2013:Q4	0.92	8.69
2014:Q1	0.83	7.81
2014:Q2	0.83	7.63
2014:Q3	0.89	8.02
2014:Q4	0.82	7.56
2015:Q1	0.94	8.66
2015:Q2	0.96	8.59
2015:Q3	1.01	8.87
2015:Q4	0.85	7.61
2016:Q1	0.78	6.98

Note: The data are quarterly and are seasonally adjusted.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Bank Holding Companies.

Return to text

Figure 35. Equity indexes for selected foreign economies

Series: Japan, euro area, United Kingdom, and emerging markets

Horizon: January 9, 2014, through June 16, 2016

Description: The data are weekly averages of daily data, plotted as four curves. The unit along the right axis is an index with January 6, 2014, equal to 100. The series all begin at 100 and move in roughly the same direction, with the United Kingdom fluctuating the least and Japan fluctuating the most. Japan begins the lowest for the first half of 2014 but surpasses all series by the beginning of 2015 and tracks closely with the euro area series for the rest of the period. The emerging markets series increases steadily to begin and surpasses all series by the third quarter of 2014, but it declines soon after and is below all series by the midpoint of 2015, remaining there for the rest of the period.

The Japan series decreases to just about 90 within the first month of 2014 and remains there until halfway through the second quarter of 2014. The series increases relatively steadily, except for a dip in the fourth quarter of 2014, to reach about 130 by the beginning of the third quarter of 2015. Between the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter, the series dips down to about 110. Following this dip, it rebounds back up to nearly 125 in the middle of the fourth quarter. It then declines sharply back down to about 100 by February 2016, and the series subsequently stabilizes between about 100 and 105 through the middle of June 2016, dipping just below 100 at the end of the series.

The euro area series fluctuates between about 100 and 105 through the first three quarters of 2014. Then the series dips slightly below 95 in the fourth quarter of 2014, followed by an increase up to nearly 105 by the end of 2014. The series increases steadily to around 125 by the end of the first quarter of 2015 before decreasing back down to about 105 by the beginning of the fourth quarter. It then rebounds back up to about 115 by the beginning of December. The series then sharply declines to below 95 in February 2016 before fluctuating between about 100 and 105, dipping to just below 100 at the end of the series.

The United Kingdom series fluctuates around 100 through the first three quarters of 2014. Then the series dips below 95 in the beginning of the fourth quarter before rebounding to over 100 by the end of 2014. The series gradually increases to over 105 by midway through the second quarter of 2015 before decreasing to just above 90 by the end of the third quarter. The series rebounds slightly to just over 95 by the end of 2015. The series then declines to just above 85 by midway through the first quarter of 2016 before stabilizing around 95 through the beginning of June. The series dips to just above 90 by the end of the period.

The emerging markets series drops to about 95 during the first quarter of 2014 before steadily increasing to about 110 by the middle of the third quarter. The series declines to about 95 by the end of 2014 and then stabilizes around 100, where it remains until the beginning of the second quarter of 2015. By the middle of the second quarter, the series increases to about 110. It then drops sharply to around 80 by the beginning of the fourth quarter. The series rebounds back above 85 in the beginning of the fourth quarter before declining to below 75 in the beginning of the first quarter of 2016. The series then increases to above 85 by the beginning of the second quarter, fluctuates between 80 and 85 through the middle of June 2016, and ends just below 85.

Note: The data are weekly averages of daily data and extend through June 16, 2016. For Dow Jones Indices licensing information, see the note on the Contents page (or Figure 14).

Source: For Japan, Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX); for the euro area, Dow Jones Euro STOXX Index; for the United Kingdom, FTSE 350 Index; for emerging markets, Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets MXEF Capital Index; all via Bloomberg.

Return to text

Figure 36. 10-year nominal benchmark yields in selected advanced economies

Series: United States, United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan 10-year benchmark yields

Horizon: January 9, 2014, to June 16, 2016

Description: The data are weekly averages of daily data, plotted as four curves. Units are in percent along the right axis. The curves move in the same direction from 2014 to 2016, with the United States and United Kingdom tracking closely and both remaining above Germany and Japan. Germany starts considerably higher than Japan but dips briefly below Japan around the beginning of the second quarter of 2015.

The series for the United States starts in January 2014 at just below 3 and gradually decreases to about 1.75 by midway through the first quarter of 2015. The series then climbs to almost 2.5 by the beginning of the third quarter. It then fluctuates between 2 and 2.5 until the end of 2015. The series then declines to around 1.75 in February 2016 and fluctuates between that level and 2 through the beginning of June. The series dips to almost 1.5 at the end of the series.

The series for the United Kingdom starts in January 2014 at just below 3 and gradually declines to about 1.5 by the middle of the first quarter of 2015. The series increases to about 1.75 then decreases again to around 1.5 in the end of the first quarter of 2015. The series then climbs to just above 2 by the beginning of the third quarter and fluctuates between 1.75 and just above 2 until the end of 2015. The series then declines to just below 1.5 by the middle of the first quarter of 2016, fluctuating around that level through the end of May. The series dips down to its lowest point, below 1.25, at the end of the series.

The series for Germany starts in January 2014 at around 2 and steadily decreases to just below 1 by midway through the third quarter. The series rebounds slightly to just above 1 at the end of the third quarter before continuing the steady decline to almost zero by the beginning of the second quarter of 2015. The series then increases back up to about 1 by the end of the second quarter before declining to below 0.25 by the middle of the first quarter of 2016. It then fluctuates around 0.25 through the beginning of June. The series dips down to its lowest point of zero at the end of the series.

The series for Japan starts in January 2014 at around 0.75 and gradually declines to about 0.25 in early 2015. Beginning in February 2015, it slowly increases to almost 0.5 by the end of the second quarter of 2015. The series then declines to its lowest value of about -0.2 by the end of the series.

Note: The data are weekly averages of daily data and extend through June 16, 2016.

Source: Bloomberg.

Return to text

Figure 37. U.S. dollar exchange rate indexes

Weekly
January 6, 2014 = 100

Period	Broad	Advanced foreign economies	Emerging market economies
9 January 2014	100.15	100.34	100.00
16 January 2014	100.21	100.64	99.88
23 January 2014	100.81	101.14	100.56
30 January 2014	101.04	100.94	101.11
6 February 2014	101.15	101.13	101.17
13 February 2014	100.77	100.58	100.91
20 February 2014	100.53	100.19	100.79
27 February 2014	100.79	100.48	101.02
6 March 2014	100.66	100.11	101.07
13 March 2014	100.58	99.96	101.04
20 March 2014	100.70	99.87	101.33
27 March 2014	100.93	100.42	101.31
3 April 2014	100.62	100.28	100.87
10 April 2014	100.14	99.68	100.48
17 April 2014	100.17	99.57	100.62
24 April 2014	100.42	99.86	100.83
1 May 2014	100.40	99.62	100.99
8 May 2014	99.92	99.14	100.51
15 May 2014	99.99	99.61	100.26
22 May 2014	99.96	99.74	100.13
29 May 2014	100.10	100.00	100.18
5 June 2014	100.32	100.17	100.43
12 June 2014	100.24	100.22	100.26
19 June 2014	100.26	100.00	100.45
26 June 2014	99.98	99.54	100.31
3 July 2014	99.59	99.07	99.98
10 July 2014	99.62	99.22	99.93
17 July 2014	99.85	99.57	100.06
24 July 2014	99.95	99.86	100.01
31 July 2014	100.37	100.60	100.20
7 August 2014	100.84	100.98	100.73
14 August 2014	100.72	101.04	100.47
21 August 2014	100.65	101.30	100.17
28 August 2014	100.99	101.91	100.30
4 September 2014	101.19	102.36	100.32
11 September 2014	101.82	103.51	100.58
18 September 2014	102.23	103.77	101.09
25 September 2014	102.78	104.61	101.43
2 October 2014	103.59	105.64	102.08
9 October 2014	103.73	105.88	102.14
16 October 2014	103.55	105.39	102.20
23 October 2014	103.56	105.40	102.21
30 October 2014	103.54	105.45	102.14
6 November 2014	104.86	107.64	102.83
13 November 2014	105.25	108.03	103.23
20 November 2014	105.46	108.07	103.54
27 November 2014	105.60	108.26	103.66
4 December 2014	106.70	109.00	105.01
11 December 2014	107.60	109.59	106.14
18 December 2014	108.16	109.51	107.15
25 December 2014	108.67	110.87	107.06
1 January 2015	108.77	111.02	107.12
8 January 2015	109.82	112.74	107.69
15 January 2015	109.68	113.27	107.07
22 January 2015	110.19	114.44	107.12
29 January 2015	111.14	116.28	107.45
5 February 2015	111.55	116.30	108.12
12 February 2015	111.82	116.69	108.32
19 February 2015	111.63	116.22	108.33
26 February 2015	111.98	116.69	108.58
5 March 2015	112.47	117.59	108.79
12 March 2015	114.42	120.54	110.04
19 March 2015	114.94	121.63	110.18
26 March 2015	112.94	118.94	108.65
2 April 2015	113.39	119.77	108.85
9 April 2015	112.56	119.14	107.87
16 April 2015	113.29	120.16	108.42
23 April 2015	112.62	118.62	108.33
30 April 2015	111.55	116.75	107.82
7 May 2015	111.55	116.01	108.33
14 May 2015	111.06	115.24	108.04
21 May 2015	111.28	115.99	107.88
28 May 2015	112.88	118.73	108.69
4 June 2015	112.96	118.25	109.16
11 June 2015	112.84	117.38	109.56
18 June 2015	112.28	116.59	109.16
25 June 2015	112.30	116.79	109.06
2 July 2015	113.10	117.74	109.76
9 July 2015	113.93	118.95	110.32
16 July 2015	114.15	119.60	110.25
23 July 2015	115.10	120.74	111.06
30 July 2015	115.42	120.20	111.97
6 August 2015	115.97	121.02	112.33
13 August 2015	116.36	120.41	113.42
20 August 2015	117.11	120.20	114.85
27 August 2015	117.29	118.67	116.26
3 September 2015	117.50	119.92	115.73
10 September 2015	117.76	119.93	116.16
17 September 2015	117.28	119.33	115.78
24 September 2015	117.84	119.76	116.43
1 October 2015	118.19	120.22	116.70
8 October 2015	116.95	119.15	115.34
15 October 2015	115.82	117.88	114.30
22 October 2015	116.28	118.55	114.61
29 October 2015	117.18	120.52	114.74
5 November 2015	117.15	120.82	114.48
12 November 2015	118.59	122.75	115.57
19 November 2015	118.89	123.06	115.87
26 November 2015	118.64	123.30	115.27
3 December 2015	118.91	123.42	115.65
10 December 2015	119.05	122.43	116.59
17 December 2015	119.99	122.87	117.89
24 December 2015	120.17	123.25	117.92
31 December 2015	120.22	123.09	118.12
7 January 2016	121.49	124.11	119.57
14 January 2016	122.29	124.40	120.73
21 January 2016	123.09	124.88	121.76
28 January 2016	122.71	124.32	121.52
4 February 2016	122.02	123.34	121.05
11 February 2016	121.38	121.21	121.51
18 February 2016	121.17	121.14	121.19
25 February 2016	120.98	121.43	120.64
3 March 2016	120.86	121.72	120.21
10 March 2016	119.46	120.28	118.85
17 March 2016	118.94	119.39	118.61
24 March 2016	118.01	118.54	117.62
31 March 2016	117.89	118.49	117.44
7 April 2016	117.54	117.49	117.57
14 April 2016	116.97	116.76	117.13
21 April 2016	116.61	116.47	116.72
28 April 2016	116.78	116.50	116.98
5 May 2016	116.36	115.35	117.12
12 May 2016	117.58	116.63	118.29
19 May 2016	118.42	117.44	119.17
26 May 2016	119.20	118.45	119.76
2 June 2016	119.41	118.49	120.10
9 June 2016	117.84	116.25	119.04
16 June 2016	118.59	116.84	119.92

Note: The data, which are in foreign currency units per dollar, are weekly averages of daily data and extend through June 16, 2016.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release H.10, "Foreign Exchange Rates."

Return to text

Figure 38. Chinese renminbi exchange rate

Series: Chinese renminbi per U.S. dollar (RMB/USD)

Horizon: January 9, 2014, to June 16, 2016

Description: The series is a weekly average of daily data, plotted as one curve. The renminbi exchange rate series is the Chinese renminbi per U.S. dollar (RMB/USD), and the right axis uses an inverted scale so that the line moving up indicates an appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar.

The Chinese renminbi exchange rate starts at about 6.05 in January 2014 before depreciating to about 6.25 by the end of April. The series fluctuates between about 6.2 and 6.25 until July before appreciating to about 6.1 by the end of November. The series then depreciates to almost 6.3 by the beginning of March 2015. The series rebounds slightly to about 6.2 by the end of March and fluctuates around 6.2 until the beginning of August. In August, the series depreciates sharply to 6.4 before rebounding slightly to about 6.35 by the end of October. The series then sharply depreciates again to about 6.6 by January 2016 before rebounding slightly to about 6.5 by the end of April. The series depreciates again to about 6.6 by the middle of June 2016, where the series ends.

Note: The data are weekly averages of daily data and extend through June 16, 2016. The line plots the number of Chinese renminbi per U.S. dollar (RMB/USD). Given the inverted scale, the line moving up indicates an appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar.

Source: Bloomberg.

Return to text

Figure 39. Real gross domestic product growth in selected advanced foreign economies

Percent, annual rate

Period	United Kingdom	Japan	Euro area	Canada
2013	2.85	2.10	0.58	3.14
2014	2.80	-0.91	0.97	2.40
2015	2.11	0.84	1.67	0.30
2016:Q1	1.45	1.86	2.22	2.40

Source: For the euro area, Eurostat; for Japan, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan; for Canada, Statistics Canada; for the United Kingdom, Office for National Statistics; all via Haver Analytics.

Return to text

Figure 40. Inflation in selected advanced foreign economies

Monthly
12-month percent change

Period	United Kingdom	Japan	Euro area	Canada
January 2014	1.89	1.41	0.77	1.47
February 2014	1.72	1.61	0.71	1.14
March 2014	1.61	1.61	0.47	1.38
April 2014	1.77	3.52	0.71	2.21
May 2014	1.49	3.71	0.49	2.37
June 2014	1.90	3.61	0.50	2.37
July 2014	1.59	3.30	0.37	2.12
August 2014	1.55	3.29	0.36	2.12
September 2014	1.23	3.29	0.32	2.11
October 2014	1.29	2.89	0.38	2.36
November 2014	0.97	2.38	0.28	1.95
December 2014	0.55	2.38	-0.17	1.46
January 2015	0.28	2.48	-0.60	1.05
February 2015	0.03	2.18	-0.27	0.97
March 2015	-0.01	2.27	-0.08	1.29
April 2015	-0.12	0.58	0.01	0.72
May 2015	0.11	0.39	0.34	0.88
June 2015	-0.04	0.29	0.22	1.04
July 2015	0.15	0.29	0.24	1.28
August 2015	0.01	0.19	0.13	1.20
September 2015	-0.12	0.00	-0.09	0.95
October 2015	-0.11	0.29	0.12	0.95
November 2015	0.11	0.29	0.15	1.35
December 2015	0.20	0.19	0.23	1.59
January 2016	0.29	-0.10	0.33	1.92
February 2016	0.28	0.29	-0.15	1.51
March 2016	0.46	0.10	-0.05	1.27
April 2016	0.29	-0.29	-0.24	1.59
May 2016	0.31	ND	-0.10	ND

Note: The data for Canada and Japan extend through April 2016.

Source: For the United Kingdom, Office of National Statistics; for Japan, Ministry of International Affairs and Communications; for euro area, Statistical Office of the European Communities; for Canada, Statistics Canada; all via Haver Analytics.

Return to text

Figure 41. Real gross domestic product growth in selected emerging market economies

Percent, annual rate

Period	China	Korea	Mexico	Brazil
2013	7.57	3.49	1.09	2.47
2014	7.21	2.69	2.60	-0.64
2015	6.78	3.12	2.42	-5.92
2016:Q1	5.40	2.05	3.33	-1.12

Note: The data for China are seasonally adjusted by staff. The data for Mexico, Brazil, and Korea are seasonally adjusted by their respective government agencies.

Source: For China, China National Bureau of Statistics; for Korea, Bank of Korea; for Mexico, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica; for Brazil, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estadistica; all via Haver Analytics.

Return to text

Last update: July 19, 2016

Home | Monetary Policy

Accessibility Contact Us Disclaimer Website Policies FOIA

PDF Reader Leaving the Board