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> Monetary Policy Report, February 24, 2009 - Part 1: Overview: Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook
> Monetary Policy Report, February 24, 2009 - Part 4: Summary of Economic Projections
| February 24, 2009: Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 | Appendix | Abbreviations | Printable Version (872 KB PDF) |
Accessible versions of figures in Part 4
Table data presented with the Monetary Policy Report submitted to the Congress on February 24, 2009, pursuant to section 2B of the Federal Reserve Act
Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2009-11 and over the longer run
Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2009 through 2011 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2004 through 2008. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1.
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | Longer Run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | -0.2 | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 0.2 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.0 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | -0.5 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 2.7 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | -1.3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.5 |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | -2.5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | Longer Run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 6.9 | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 9.2 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 5.5 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 8.8 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 5.0 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 8.5 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 4.8 |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 8.0 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | Longer Run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.5 |
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
Figure 2.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2009-11 and over the longer run
Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
| Percent range | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | Longer Run | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January projections |
October projections |
January projections |
October projections |
January projections |
October projections |
January projections | |
| -2.6 - -2.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -2.4 - -2.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -2.2 - -2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -2.0 - -1.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -1.8 - -1.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -1.6 - -1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -1.4 - -1.3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -1.2 - -1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -1.0 - -0.9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -0.8 - -0.7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -0.6 - -0.5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -0.4 - -0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -0.2 - -0.1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.0 - 0.1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.2 - 0.3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.4 - 0.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.6 - 0.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.8 - 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.0 - 1.1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.2 - 1.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.4 - 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.6 - 1.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.8 - 1.9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2.0 - 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2.2 - 2.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2.4 - 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| 2.6 - 2.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2.8 - 2.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 3.0 - 3.1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 3.2 - 3.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 3.4 - 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 3.6 - 3.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 3.8 - 3.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 4.0 - 4.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4.2 - 4.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 4.4 - 4.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 4.6 - 4.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4.8 - 4.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5.0 - 5.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| 5.2 - 5.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5.4 - 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Figure 2.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2009-11 and over the longer run
Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
| Percent range | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | Longer Run | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January projections |
October projections |
January projections |
October projections |
January projections |
October projections |
January projections | |
| 4.4 - 4.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4.6 - 4.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4.8 - 4.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5.0 - 5.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 5.2 - 5.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5.4 - 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5.6 - 5.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5.8 - 5.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 6.0 - 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 6.2 - 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 6.4 - 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 6.6 - 6.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 6.8 - 6.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 7.0 - 7.1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 7.2 - 7.3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 7.4 - 7.5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 7.6 - 7.7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 7.8 - 7.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8.0 - 8.1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 8.2 - 8.3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8.4 - 8.5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8.6 - 8.7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8.8 - 8.9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9.0 - 9.1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9.2 - 9.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Figure 2.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2009-11 and over the longer run
Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
| Percent range | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | Longer Run | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January projections |
October projections |
January projections |
October projections |
January projections |
October projections |
January projections | |
| -0.5 - -0.4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -0.3 - -0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -0.1 - 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.1 - 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.3 - 0.4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.5 - 0.6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.7 - 0.8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 0.9 - 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.1 - 1.2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 1.3 - 1.4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 1.5 - 1.6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 1.7 - 1.8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| 1.9 - 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| 2.1 - 2.2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Figure 2.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2009-11
Histograms, three panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
| Percent range | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January projections |
October projections |
January projections |
October projections |
January projections |
October projections | |
| -0.1 - 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 0.1 - 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.3 - 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.5 - 0.6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 0.7 - 0.8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 0.9 - 1.0 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 1.1 - 1.2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 1.3 - 1.4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 1.5 - 1.6 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 1.7 - 1.8 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 1.9 - 2.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2.1 - 2.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last update:
February 24, 2009
