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Accessible versions of figures in Part 2

Table data presented with the Monetary Policy Report submitted to the Congress on July 13, 2011, pursuant to section 2B of the Federal Reserve Act

Figure 1. Change in Real Gross Domestic Product, 2005-11

Percent, annual rate

Period Change in real GDP
2005:H1 2.88
2005:H2 2.58
2006:H1 3.38
2006:H2 1.52
2007:H1 2.05
2007:H2 2.58
2008:H1 -0.07
2008:H2 -5.40
2009:H1 -2.81
2009:H2 3.29
2010:H1 2.72
2010:H2 2.84
2011:Q1 1.92

Note: Here and in subsequent figures, except as noted, change for a given period is measured to its final quarter from the final quarter of the preceding period.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 2. Change in the Chain-Type Price Index for Personal Consumption Expenditures, 2005-11

Percent

Period Total Excluding food and energy
January 2005 2.72 2.30
February 2005 2.77 2.34
March 2005 2.89 2.39
April 2005 3.05 2.27
May 2005 2.64 2.29
June 2005 2.35 2.13
July 2005 2.63 2.07
August 2005 3.02 2.10
September 2005 3.95 2.24
October 2005 3.73 2.35
November 2005 3.09 2.35
December 2005 3.00 2.32
January 2006 3.32 2.17
February 2006 3.06 2.09
March 2006 2.89 2.08
April 2006 2.97 2.22
May 2006 3.26 2.26
June 2006 3.41 2.40
July 2006 3.29 2.39
August 2006 3.22 2.54
September 2006 1.92 2.43
October 2006 1.49 2.37
November 2006 1.89 2.25
December 2006 2.30 2.30
January 2007 2.16 2.54
February 2007 2.49 2.62
March 2007 2.74 2.48
April 2007 2.57 2.34
May 2007 2.60 2.22
June 2007 2.57 2.16
July 2007 2.42 2.23
August 2007 2.11 2.16
September 2007 2.72 2.25
October 2007 3.24 2.29
November 2007 3.67 2.42
December 2007 3.60 2.50
January 2008 3.60 2.32
February 2008 3.45 2.22
March 2008 3.44 2.38
April 2008 3.52 2.45
May 2008 3.65 2.55
June 2008 4.16 2.63
July 2008 4.52 2.64
August 2008 4.34 2.57
September 2008 4.04 2.43
October 2008 3.15 2.17
November 2008 1.38 2.02
December 2008 0.58 1.78
January 2009 0.43 1.63
February 2009 0.48 1.62
March 2009 0.02 1.47
April 2009 -0.12 1.54
May 2009 -0.40 1.48
June 2009 -0.50 1.42
July 2009 -0.96 1.32
August 2009 -0.58 1.32
September 2009 -0.55 1.33
October 2009 0.31 1.60
November 2009 1.73 1.67
December 2009 2.39 1.78
January 2010 2.49 1.79
February 2010 2.26 1.75
March 2010 2.48 1.78
April 2010 2.29 1.54
May 2010 2.07 1.48
June 2010 1.38 1.37
July 2010 1.49 1.32
August 2010 1.35 1.24
September 2010 1.28 1.09
October 2010 1.20 0.87
November 2010 1.05 0.83
December 2010 1.14 0.73
January 2011 1.23 0.83
February 2011 1.60 0.92
March 2011 1.87 0.92
April 2011 2.24 1.06
May 2011 2.50 1.21

Note: The data are monthly and extend through May 2011; changes are from one year earlier.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 3. Private Housing Starts, 2001-11

Millions of units, annual rate

Period Single-family Multifamily
January 2001 1.28 0.33
February 2001 1.28 0.35
March 2001 1.22 0.37
April 2001 1.31 0.34
May 2001 1.29 0.32
June 2001 1.30 0.34
July 2001 1.30 0.37
August 2001 1.29 0.28
September 2001 1.24 0.32
October 2001 1.24 0.30
November 2001 1.24 0.36
December 2001 1.29 0.28
January 2002 1.31 0.37
February 2002 1.49 0.33
March 2002 1.28 0.37
April 2002 1.28 0.31
May 2002 1.39 0.36
June 2002 1.36 0.35
July 2002 1.33 0.34
August 2002 1.25 0.38
September 2002 1.45 0.36
October 2002 1.37 0.29
November 2002 1.40 0.36
December 2002 1.46 0.35
January 2003 1.54 0.32
February 2003 1.30 0.33
March 2003 1.40 0.33
April 2003 1.37 0.27
May 2003 1.39 0.36
June 2003 1.51 0.35
July 2003 1.54 0.36
August 2003 1.48 0.35
September 2003 1.56 0.38
October 2003 1.63 0.34
November 2003 1.69 0.39
December 2003 1.65 0.41
January 2004 1.56 0.35
February 2004 1.48 0.37
March 2004 1.63 0.37
April 2004 1.65 0.36
May 2004 1.65 0.33
June 2004 1.53 0.30
July 2004 1.68 0.33
August 2004 1.69 0.33
September 2004 1.56 0.35
October 2004 1.66 0.41
November 2004 1.46 0.32
December 2004 1.71 0.33
January 2005 1.74 0.41
February 2005 1.79 0.42
March 2005 1.58 0.28
April 2005 1.66 0.40
May 2005 1.71 0.31
June 2005 1.72 0.35
July 2005 1.72 0.33
August 2005 1.73 0.37
September 2005 1.79 0.36
October 2005 1.74 0.33
November 2005 1.81 0.34
December 2005 1.63 0.37
January 2006 1.82 0.45
February 2006 1.80 0.32
March 2006 1.60 0.37
April 2006 1.51 0.31
May 2006 1.57 0.37
June 2006 1.45 0.35
July 2006 1.42 0.31
August 2006 1.36 0.29
September 2006 1.38 0.34
October 2006 1.21 0.28
November 2006 1.29 0.28
December 2006 1.25 0.40
January 2007 1.13 0.28
February 2007 1.19 0.29
March 2007 1.20 0.29
April 2007 1.20 0.29
May 2007 1.13 0.29
June 2007 1.13 0.32
July 2007 1.04 0.31
August 2007 0.96 0.37
September 2007 0.94 0.25
October 2007 0.88 0.39
November 2007 0.83 0.36
December 2007 0.81 0.23
January 2008 0.77 0.31
February 2008 0.72 0.38
March 2008 0.73 0.28
April 2008 0.68 0.33
May 2008 0.68 0.29
June 2008 0.65 0.40
July 2008 0.62 0.31
August 2008 0.61 0.24
September 2008 0.54 0.28
October 2008 0.54 0.24
November 2008 0.46 0.19
December 2008 0.40 0.16
January 2009 0.36 0.13
February 2009 0.36 0.22
March 2009 0.35 0.15
April 2009 0.39 0.09
May 2009 0.41 0.13
June 2009 0.48 0.10
July 2009 0.51 0.09
August 2009 0.49 0.10
September 2009 0.51 0.08
October 2009 0.48 0.06
November 2009 0.50 0.09
December 2009 0.48 0.10
January 2010 0.51 0.11
February 2010 0.52 0.08
March 2010 0.53 0.10
April 2010 0.57 0.12
May 2010 0.46 0.12
June 2010 0.45 0.09
July 2010 0.43 0.12
August 2010 0.43 0.18
September 2010 0.45 0.15
October 2010 0.43 0.11
November 2010 0.45 0.10
December 2010 0.42 0.11
January 2011 0.44 0.20
February 2011 0.39 0.13
March 2011 0.42 0.18
April 2011 0.40 0.14
May 2011 0.42 0.14

Note: The data are monthly and extend through May 2011.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

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Figure 4. Prices of Existing Single-Family Houses, 2001-11

Index value

Period S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index FHFA index CoreLogic price index
January 2001 54.74 64.74 55.24
February 2001 55.26 65.15 55.79
March 2001 55.72 65.54 56.24
April 2001 56.09 65.92 56.55
May 2001 56.31 66.19 56.80
June 2001 56.60 66.52 57.12
July 2001 56.90 66.90 57.53
August 2001 57.26 67.23 57.89
September 2001 57.64 67.61 58.29
October 2001 57.96 68.00 58.73
November 2001 58.24 68.19 59.17
December 2001 58.43 68.66 59.47
January 2002 58.76 69.08 59.88
February 2002 59.17 69.47 60.29
March 2002 59.71 69.87 60.71
April 2002 60.28 70.27 61.17
May 2002 60.98 70.76 61.76
June 2002 61.69 71.17 62.35
July 2002 62.41 71.64 62.98
August 2002 63.10 72.14 63.56
September 2002 63.69 72.59 64.02
October 2002 64.33 73.09 64.42
November 2002 64.93 73.52 64.79
December 2002 65.57 74.05 65.18
January 2003 66.08 74.49 65.81
February 2003 66.56 74.95 66.24
March 2003 67.00 75.25 66.73
April 2003 67.42 75.69 67.16
May 2003 67.86 76.08 67.64
June 2003 68.24 76.45 68.16
July 2003 68.82 77.03 68.76
August 2003 69.51 77.60 69.51
September 2003 70.34 78.16 70.25
October 2003 71.17 78.64 70.99
November 2003 72.06 79.25 71.71
December 2003 73.00 79.91 72.46
January 2004 73.91 80.50 73.61
February 2004 74.83 81.09 74.58
March 2004 75.97 81.63 75.69
April 2004 77.15 82.25 76.68
May 2004 78.32 83.08 77.73
June 2004 79.57 83.91 78.86
July 2004 80.57 84.59 79.82
August 2004 81.39 85.18 80.60
September 2004 82.15 85.85 81.45
October 2004 82.95 86.52 82.41
November 2004 83.81 87.39 83.37
December 2004 84.78 88.01 84.31
January 2005 85.97 88.62 85.88
February 2005 87.28 89.29 87.34
March 2005 88.69 90.19 89.28
April 2005 89.81 91.02 90.29
May 2005 90.81 91.69 91.26
June 2005 91.79 92.49 92.39
July 2005 92.68 93.34 93.43
August 2005 93.65 94.05 94.38
September 2005 94.73 94.98 95.38
October 2005 95.82 95.53 96.16
November 2005 96.91 96.21 96.91
December 2005 97.89 96.80 97.60
January 2006 98.66 97.38 98.56
February 2006 99.42 97.59 99.16
March 2006 99.82 98.00 100.00
April 2006 100.00 98.22 99.67
May 2006 99.99 98.49 99.38
June 2006 99.68 98.39 98.87
July 2006 99.30 98.50 98.46
August 2006 98.89 98.77 98.14
September 2006 98.61 98.79 98.24
October 2006 98.56 99.00 98.39
November 2006 98.59 99.23 98.48
December 2006 98.49 99.32 98.57
January 2007 98.61 99.72 98.19
February 2007 98.76 99.67 97.85
March 2007 98.77 99.98 97.34
April 2007 98.11 100.00 96.52
May 2007 97.35 99.62 95.75
June 2007 96.33 99.27 94.84
July 2007 95.47 98.84 93.98
August 2007 94.48 98.47 92.97
September 2007 93.56 98.11 92.03
October 2007 92.48 97.48 91.05
November 2007 90.94 96.86 90.02
December 2007 89.54 96.41 89.20
January 2008 88.08 95.48 88.28
February 2008 86.35 95.11 87.04
March 2008 84.85 94.39 85.81
April 2008 83.32 93.37 84.13
May 2008 82.13 92.59 83.11
June 2008 81.04 92.13 81.97
July 2008 79.86 91.31 80.89
August 2008 78.66 90.42 79.72
September 2008 77.12 89.88 78.40
October 2008 75.67 88.86 76.95
November 2008 74.31 87.46 75.45
December 2008 72.84 87.52 74.00
January 2009 71.35 88.08 72.35
February 2009 70.33 88.16 71.32
March 2009 69.17 87.39 70.63
April 2009 68.37 86.83 70.13
May 2009 68.25 86.88 70.64
June 2009 68.56 86.99 71.09
July 2009 69.23 86.81 71.63
August 2009 69.70 86.42 71.78
September 2009 69.85 86.55 71.70
October 2009 70.07 86.72 71.74
November 2009 70.28 87.15 71.95
December 2009 70.57 85.98 71.93
January 2010 70.86 85.75 72.19
February 2010 70.86 85.10 72.01
March 2010 70.92 85.30 72.54
April 2010 71.03 85.53 72.50
May 2010 71.44 85.94 72.74
June 2010 71.46 85.03 72.37
July 2010 71.39 84.67 71.86
August 2010 70.77 84.46 70.97
September 2010 70.10 83.65 70.10
October 2010 69.45 83.59 69.57
November 2010 69.10 83.39 69.16
December 2010 68.84 82.58 68.94
January 2011 68.65 81.61 68.66
February 2011 68.48 80.35 68.12
March 2011 68.30 80.05 67.83
April 2011 68.24 80.70 67.64
May 2011 ND ND 67.26

Note: The S&P/Case-Shiller and FHFA data are monthly and extend through April 2011. The CoreLogic data are monthly and extend through May 2011. Each index has been normalized so that its peak is 100. Both the CoreLogic price index and the FHFA index (formerly calculated by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) include purchase transactions only. The S&P/Case-Shiller index reflects all arm's-length sales transactions in selected metropolitan areas.

Source: For CoreLogic, CoreLogic; for FHFA, Federal Housing Finance Agency; for S&P/Case-Shiller, Standard & Poor's.

ND No data. Return to table

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Figure 5. Mortgage Delinquency Rates, 2000-11

Percent

Period Prime and near prime Subprime
Fixed rate Adjustable rate Fixed rate Adjustable rate
January 2000 1.18 2.54 6.02 7.03
February 2000 1.13 2.40 5.98 6.72
March 2000 1.02 2.26 5.95 6.82
April 2000 1.02 2.15 6.06 7.15
May 2000 1.00 2.11 5.88 6.50
June 2000 1.01 2.08 5.83 6.44
July 2000 1.03 2.13 6.16 6.76
August 2000 1.04 2.14 6.12 6.58
September 2000 1.08 2.22 6.71 7.21
October 2000 1.10 2.27 6.71 7.23
November 2000 1.13 2.32 6.75 7.39
December 2000 1.19 2.43 7.21 8.40
January 2001 1.22 2.48 7.36 8.57
February 2001 1.23 2.54 7.06 8.40
March 2001 1.14 2.40 7.16 8.43
April 2001 1.15 2.41 7.19 8.40
May 2001 1.15 2.44 7.10 8.51
June 2001 1.17 2.53 6.94 8.91
July 2001 1.19 2.57 7.07 8.95
August 2001 1.21 2.69 7.11 8.97
September 2001 1.26 2.66 7.31 9.53
October 2001 1.27 2.65 7.43 9.66
November 2001 1.32 2.70 7.71 9.48
December 2001 1.37 2.78 7.87 9.82
January 2002 1.39 2.76 6.87 9.35
February 2002 1.36 2.64 6.86 9.29
March 2002 1.27 2.46 6.77 8.90
April 2002 1.16 2.28 6.73 8.84
May 2002 1.12 2.17 6.90 8.39
June 2002 1.14 2.16 7.35 8.64
July 2002 1.14 2.09 7.75 8.56
August 2002 1.15 2.05 8.00 8.70
September 2002 1.20 2.06 8.56 8.89
October 2002 1.18 2.00 8.80 8.78
November 2002 1.21 2.02 9.03 8.84
December 2002 1.26 2.03 9.39 9.00
January 2003 1.30 2.02 9.32 9.08
February 2003 1.27 1.93 8.88 8.75
March 2003 1.22 1.84 8.33 8.34
April 2003 1.17 1.61 8.14 8.18
May 2003 1.18 1.56 7.97 8.00
June 2003 1.24 1.65 8.08 8.10
July 2003 1.27 1.72 7.92 8.07
August 2003 1.30 1.71 7.84 8.11
September 2003 1.37 1.70 7.72 8.10
October 2003 1.36 1.66 7.62 8.08
November 2003 1.33 1.56 7.59 8.11
December 2003 1.33 1.52 7.48 8.21
January 2004 1.36 1.50 7.37 7.96
February 2004 1.34 1.45 7.27 7.73
March 2004 1.25 1.32 6.58 7.18
April 2004 1.20 1.23 6.38 6.79
May 2004 1.21 1.20 6.31 6.54
June 2004 1.20 1.17 6.20 6.48
July 2004 1.30 1.25 6.30 6.44
August 2004 1.29 1.22 6.16 6.24
September 2004 1.32 1.21 6.04 6.13
October 2004 1.34 1.20 6.02 6.15
November 2004 1.36 1.21 6.09 6.19
December 2004 1.34 1.18 6.12 6.24
January 2005 1.27 1.05 6.13 6.27
February 2005 1.22 1.01 5.89 6.08
March 2005 1.12 0.93 5.61 5.77
April 2005 1.08 0.90 5.49 5.65
May 2005 1.07 0.88 5.35 5.51
June 2005 1.06 0.88 5.31 5.59
July 2005 1.06 0.85 5.38 5.79
August 2005 1.07 0.86 5.34 5.81
September 2005 1.09 0.88 5.45 6.10
October 2005 1.12 0.90 5.56 6.26
November 2005 1.26 0.99 5.84 6.70
December 2005 1.27 1.01 5.90 6.99
January 2006 1.28 1.07 5.91 7.21
February 2006 1.21 1.05 5.69 7.13
March 2006 1.12 0.99 5.38 6.84
April 2006 1.09 0.99 5.34 7.01
May 2006 1.06 1.00 5.18 6.95
June 2006 1.05 1.13 5.11 7.15
July 2006 1.06 1.20 5.21 7.65
August 2006 1.05 1.25 5.16 7.90
September 2006 1.06 1.34 5.24 8.43
October 2006 1.06 1.43 5.28 8.95
November 2006 1.08 1.55 5.41 9.48
December 2006 1.06 1.67 5.54 10.20
January 2007 1.11 1.78 5.53 10.65
February 2007 1.10 1.87 5.39 10.77
March 2007 1.03 1.88 5.21 10.89
April 2007 1.01 1.98 5.21 11.32
May 2007 1.02 2.19 5.30 11.95
June 2007 1.05 2.39 5.53 13.03
July 2007 1.09 2.59 5.84 14.30
August 2007 1.12 2.79 6.08 15.56
September 2007 1.19 3.03 6.54 17.18
October 2007 1.23 3.31 6.83 18.57
November 2007 1.32 3.79 7.24 20.34
December 2007 1.42 4.29 7.80 22.40
January 2008 1.53 4.68 8.19 23.93
February 2008 1.54 5.03 8.35 25.09
March 2008 1.51 4.88 8.51 26.03
April 2008 1.56 5.16 8.69 26.88
May 2008 1.62 5.46 8.89 27.70
June 2008 1.69 5.82 9.20 28.68
July 2008 1.79 6.08 9.41 29.33
August 2008 1.93 6.44 9.98 30.49
September 2008 2.09 6.80 10.40 31.33
October 2008 2.25 7.30 10.88 32.41
November 2008 2.47 7.85 11.78 33.95
December 2008 2.77 8.70 12.62 35.25
January 2009 3.06 10.53 13.35 36.48
February 2009 3.23 11.38 13.81 37.49
March 2009 3.38 12.13 14.08 38.21
April 2009 3.57 12.87 14.57 39.07
May 2009 3.79 13.50 15.17 39.96
June 2009 4.00 13.96 15.79 40.77
July 2009 4.25 14.41 16.41 41.54
August 2009 4.50 14.94 17.33 42.80
September 2009 4.80 15.54 18.26 44.06
October 2009 5.07 16.00 18.95 44.88
November 2009 5.37 16.63 19.85 45.87
December 2009 5.53 16.88 20.46 46.35
January 2010 5.70 17.08 20.95 46.58
February 2010 5.73 17.16 20.76 45.73
March 2010 5.56 16.73 20.17 44.34
April 2010 5.43 16.39 19.84 43.40
May 2010 5.34 16.10 19.66 42.61
June 2010 5.21 15.83 19.52 41.90
July 2010 5.15 15.59 19.54 41.53
August 2010 5.07 15.40 19.64 41.29
September 2010 5.04 15.25 19.84 41.19
October 2010 4.99 15.14 20.21 41.40
November 2010 5.02 15.18 21.34 42.43
December 2010 5.03 15.13 20.82 41.65
January 2011 5.03 14.93 20.70 41.40
February 2011 5.10 14.98 20.54 41.03
March 2011 4.87 14.50 19.86 39.87
April 2011 4.81 14.27 19.71 39.41
May 2011 4.78 14.04 ND ND

Note: The data are monthly and extend through May 2011 for prime and near prime and April 2011 for subprime. Delinquency rate is the percent of loans 90 days or more past due or in foreclosure.

Source: For prime and near prime, LPS Applied Analytics; for subprime, CoreLogic.

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Figure 6. Mortgage Interest Rates, 1995-2011

Percent

Period Fixed rate Adjustable rate
4 January 1995 9.22 6.83
11 January 1995 9.19 6.87
18 January 1995 9.05 6.82
25 January 1995 9.13 6.75
1 February 1995 8.94 6.75
8 February 1995 8.80 6.69
15 February 1995 8.84 6.66
22 February 1995 8.73 6.60
1 March 1995 8.53 6.51
8 March 1995 8.62 6.50
15 March 1995 8.38 6.44
22 March 1995 8.40 6.41
29 March 1995 8.38 6.37
5 April 1995 8.41 6.41
12 April 1995 8.37 6.38
19 April 1995 8.24 6.32
26 April 1995 8.26 6.30
3 May 1995 8.27 6.26
10 May 1995 7.87 6.12
17 May 1995 7.83 6.10
24 May 1995 7.85 6.06
31 May 1995 7.71 5.95
7 June 1995 7.51 5.86
14 June 1995 7.55 5.88
21 June 1995 7.53 5.84
28 June 1995 7.53 5.84
5 July 1995 7.63 5.86
12 July 1995 7.41 5.80
19 July 1995 7.60 5.81
26 July 1995 7.79 5.86
2 August 1995 7.82 5.89
9 August 1995 7.80 5.91
16 August 1995 7.94 5.95
23 August 1995 7.88 5.96
30 August 1995 7.76 5.86
6 September 1995 7.63 5.86
13 September 1995 7.60 5.80
20 September 1995 7.57 5.77
27 September 1995 7.62 5.77
4 October 1995 7.57 5.76
11 October 1995 7.50 5.75
18 October 1995 7.38 5.72
25 October 1995 7.45 5.73
1 November 1995 7.44 5.67
8 November 1995 7.37 5.64
15 November 1995 7.35 5.65
22 November 1995 7.35 5.61
29 November 1995 7.33 5.60
6 December 1995 7.18 5.53
13 December 1995 7.15 5.55
20 December 1995 7.23 5.64
27 December 1995 7.11 5.55
3 January 1996 7.02 5.46
10 January 1996 7.08 5.45
17 January 1996 7.02 5.48
24 January 1996 7.00 5.37
31 January 1996 7.02 5.37
7 February 1996 7.02 5.33
14 February 1996 6.94 5.19
21 February 1996 7.32 5.34
28 February 1996 7.41 5.38
6 March 1996 7.38 5.40
13 March 1996 7.83 5.55
20 March 1996 7.81 5.60
27 March 1996 7.69 5.62
3 April 1996 7.78 5.62
10 April 1996 8.05 5.80
17 April 1996 7.95 5.75
24 April 1996 7.92 5.74
1 May 1996 7.99 5.76
8 May 1996 8.24 5.80
15 May 1996 8.08 5.78
22 May 1996 8.01 5.75
29 May 1996 8.03 5.76
5 June 1996 8.30 5.86
12 June 1996 8.39 5.91
19 June 1996 8.30 5.93
26 June 1996 8.29 5.98
3 July 1996 8.14 5.94
10 July 1996 8.42 6.01
17 July 1996 8.23 5.97
24 July 1996 8.19 6.01
31 July 1996 8.23 5.98
7 August 1996 7.88 5.89
14 August 1996 7.88 5.81
21 August 1996 7.93 5.79
28 August 1996 8.09 5.75
4 September 1996 8.34 5.85
11 September 1996 8.28 5.90
18 September 1996 8.14 5.83
25 September 1996 8.16 5.82
2 October 1996 8.06 5.70
9 October 1996 7.86 5.68
16 October 1996 7.88 5.62
23 October 1996 7.86 5.57
30 October 1996 7.78 5.60
6 November 1996 7.67 5.56
13 November 1996 7.59 5.52
20 November 1996 7.53 5.48
27 November 1996 7.52 5.50
4 December 1996 7.44 5.47
11 December 1996 7.57 5.52
18 December 1996 7.74 5.53
25 December 1996 7.64 5.57
1 January 1997 7.67 5.56
8 January 1997 7.85 5.54
15 January 1997 7.87 5.57
22 January 1997 7.85 5.57
29 January 1997 7.88 5.55
5 February 1997 7.74 5.51
12 February 1997 7.65 5.52
19 February 1997 7.56 5.45
26 February 1997 7.65 5.49
5 March 1997 7.84 5.54
12 March 1997 7.84 5.61
19 March 1997 7.94 5.71
26 March 1997 7.97 5.71
2 April 1997 8.18 5.80
9 April 1997 8.15 5.91
16 April 1997 8.16 5.89
23 April 1997 8.08 5.86
30 April 1997 8.01 5.84
7 May 1997 7.94 5.82
14 May 1997 7.91 5.78
21 May 1997 7.92 5.80
28 May 1997 7.94 5.83
4 June 1997 7.85 5.78
11 June 1997 7.72 5.67
18 June 1997 7.61 5.66
25 June 1997 7.58 5.66
2 July 1997 7.62 5.67
9 July 1997 7.47 5.53
16 July 1997 7.47 5.55
23 July 1997 7.43 5.54
30 July 1997 7.36 5.49
6 August 1997 7.46 5.53
13 August 1997 7.54 5.56
20 August 1997 7.46 5.56
27 August 1997 7.58 5.62
3 September 1997 7.53 5.58
10 September 1997 7.53 5.59
17 September 1997 7.38 5.53
24 September 1997 7.28 5.51
1 October 1997 7.31 5.52
8 October 1997 7.26 5.49
15 October 1997 7.34 5.55
22 October 1997 7.35 5.55
29 October 1997 7.21 5.46
5 November 1997 7.24 5.48
12 November 1997 7.23 5.53
19 November 1997 7.18 5.48
26 November 1997 7.17 5.47
3 December 1997 7.15 5.50
10 December 1997 7.17 5.52
17 December 1997 7.07 5.51
24 December 1997 6.99 5.53
31 December 1997 7.03 5.50
7 January 1998 6.94 5.50
14 January 1998 6.89 5.56
21 January 1998 6.99 5.53
28 January 1998 7.12 5.59
4 February 1998 7.03 5.57
11 February 1998 7.06 5.58
18 February 1998 6.99 5.59
25 February 1998 7.09 5.65
4 March 1998 7.19 5.70
11 March 1998 7.16 5.70
18 March 1998 7.08 5.67
25 March 1998 7.08 5.70
1 April 1998 7.15 5.68
8 April 1998 7.09 5.68
15 April 1998 7.17 5.67
22 April 1998 7.15 5.64
29 April 1998 7.22 5.69
6 May 1998 7.14 5.65
13 May 1998 7.19 5.71
20 May 1998 7.10 5.70
27 May 1998 7.07 5.70
3 June 1998 7.05 5.68
10 June 1998 7.04 5.71
17 June 1998 6.94 5.68
24 June 1998 6.96 5.68
1 July 1998 6.98 5.66
8 July 1998 6.91 5.60
15 July 1998 6.94 5.64
22 July 1998 6.96 5.65
29 July 1998 6.97 5.62
5 August 1998 6.94 5.61
12 August 1998 6.91 5.60
19 August 1998 6.92 5.58
26 August 1998 6.92 5.58
2 September 1998 6.82 5.51
9 September 1998 6.77 5.50
16 September 1998 6.66 5.43
23 September 1998 6.64 5.42
30 September 1998 6.60 5.39
7 October 1998 6.49 5.36
14 October 1998 6.90 5.35
21 October 1998 6.73 5.37
28 October 1998 6.83 5.42
4 November 1998 6.89 5.48
11 November 1998 6.93 5.56
18 November 1998 6.86 5.52
25 November 1998 6.78 5.54
2 December 1998 6.71 5.52
9 December 1998 6.69 5.53
16 December 1998 6.69 5.55
23 December 1998 6.77 5.58
30 December 1998 6.83 5.63
6 January 1999 6.79 5.61
13 January 1999 6.83 5.61
20 January 1999 6.78 5.57
27 January 1999 6.74 5.57
3 February 1999 6.75 5.63
10 February 1999 6.77 5.58
17 February 1999 6.82 5.67
24 February 1999 6.89 5.71
3 March 1999 7.06 5.74
10 March 1999 7.11 5.88
17 March 1999 7.01 5.75
24 March 1999 6.98 5.69
31 March 1999 6.98 5.65
7 April 1999 6.92 5.59
14 April 1999 6.87 5.56
21 April 1999 6.88 5.56
28 April 1999 6.93 5.63
5 May 1999 7.02 5.68
12 May 1999 7.10 5.71
19 May 1999 7.23 5.76
26 May 1999 7.23 5.73
2 June 1999 7.41 5.85
9 June 1999 7.51 5.92
16 June 1999 7.65 5.94
23 June 1999 7.63 5.93
30 June 1999 7.71 6.05
7 July 1999 7.65 5.96
14 July 1999 7.58 5.97
21 July 1999 7.52 5.97
28 July 1999 7.70 5.99
4 August 1999 7.89 6.09
11 August 1999 8.15 6.24
18 August 1999 7.93 6.18
25 August 1999 7.80 6.22
1 September 1999 7.83 6.18
8 September 1999 7.88 6.21
15 September 1999 7.82 6.22
22 September 1999 7.76 6.19
29 September 1999 7.70 6.12
6 October 1999 7.82 6.27
13 October 1999 7.85 6.31
20 October 1999 7.93 6.30
27 October 1999 7.96 6.35
3 November 1999 7.84 6.34
10 November 1999 7.67 6.30
17 November 1999 7.69 6.35
24 November 1999 7.75 6.45
1 December 1999 7.84 6.49
8 December 1999 7.84 6.45
15 December 1999 7.86 6.49
22 December 1999 7.96 6.64
29 December 1999 8.06 6.56
5 January 2000 8.15 6.60
12 January 2000 8.18 6.61
19 January 2000 8.26 6.56
26 January 2000 8.25 6.65
2 February 2000 8.25 6.65
9 February 2000 8.36 6.73
16 February 2000 8.38 6.77
23 February 2000 8.31 6.73
1 March 2000 8.27 6.68
8 March 2000 8.23 6.68
15 March 2000 8.24 6.68
22 March 2000 8.23 6.78
29 March 2000 8.23 6.76
5 April 2000 8.20 6.79
12 April 2000 8.12 6.86
19 April 2000 8.16 6.76
26 April 2000 8.13 6.77
3 May 2000 8.28 6.90
10 May 2000 8.52 6.96
17 May 2000 8.64 7.15
24 May 2000 8.62 7.25
31 May 2000 8.54 7.25
7 June 2000 8.32 7.24
14 June 2000 8.22 7.21
21 June 2000 8.14 7.22
28 June 2000 8.22 7.26
5 July 2000 8.16 7.27
12 July 2000 8.09 7.22
19 July 2000 8.21 7.32
26 July 2000 8.13 7.29
2 August 2000 8.12 7.28
9 August 2000 8.04 7.28
16 August 2000 7.96 7.21
23 August 2000 7.99 7.37
30 August 2000 7.96 7.27
6 September 2000 7.94 7.33
13 September 2000 7.88 7.26
20 September 2000 7.90 7.27
27 September 2000 7.88 7.21
4 October 2000 7.83 7.21
11 October 2000 7.84 7.23
18 October 2000 7.83 7.25
25 October 2000 7.68 7.22
1 November 2000 7.73 7.12
8 November 2000 7.79 7.23
15 November 2000 7.73 7.25
22 November 2000 7.73 7.28
29 November 2000 7.65 7.24
6 December 2000 7.54 7.21
13 December 2000 7.42 7.05
20 December 2000 7.17 7.02
27 December 2000 7.13 6.93
3 January 2001 7.07 6.86
10 January 2001 6.89 6.65
17 January 2001 7.02 6.64
24 January 2001 7.15 6.64
31 January 2001 7.09 6.54
7 February 2001 6.98 6.45
14 February 2001 7.01 6.40
21 February 2001 7.12 6.43
28 February 2001 7.03 6.39
7 March 2001 6.97 6.29
14 March 2001 6.96 6.32
21 March 2001 6.89 6.22
28 March 2001 6.91 6.19
4 April 2001 7.01 6.23
11 April 2001 7.04 6.15
18 April 2001 7.14 6.08
25 April 2001 7.12 5.97
2 May 2001 7.14 6.00
9 May 2001 7.10 5.90
16 May 2001 7.14 5.81
23 May 2001 7.20 5.82
30 May 2001 7.24 5.89
6 June 2001 7.20 5.85
13 June 2001 7.14 5.82
20 June 2001 7.11 5.74
27 June 2001 7.11 5.77
4 July 2001 7.19 5.71
11 July 2001 7.21 5.79
18 July 2001 7.08 5.62
25 July 2001 7.03 5.72
1 August 2001 7.00 5.77
8 August 2001 7.00 5.70
15 August 2001 6.92 5.71
22 August 2001 6.91 5.68
29 August 2001 6.92 5.67
5 September 2001 6.89 5.64
12 September 2001 6.86 5.62
19 September 2001 6.80 5.58
26 September 2001 6.72 5.45
3 October 2001 6.64 5.34
10 October 2001 6.58 5.26
17 October 2001 6.61 5.26
24 October 2001 6.64 5.25
31 October 2001 6.56 5.26
7 November 2001 6.45 5.30
14 November 2001 6.51 5.06
21 November 2001 6.75 5.18
28 November 2001 7.02 5.22
5 December 2001 6.84 5.21
12 December 2001 7.09 5.19
19 December 2001 7.17 5.27
26 December 2001 7.16 5.25
2 January 2002 7.14 5.26
9 January 2002 7.06 5.26
16 January 2002 6.83 5.08
23 January 2002 6.96 5.10
30 January 2002 7.02 5.12
6 February 2002 6.88 5.04
13 February 2002 6.86 4.98
20 February 2002 6.81 4.96
27 February 2002 6.80 4.94
6 March 2002 6.87 5.07
13 March 2002 7.08 5.08
20 March 2002 7.14 5.11
27 March 2002 7.18 5.11
3 April 2002 7.13 4.99
10 April 2002 6.99 5.00
17 April 2002 6.94 4.95
24 April 2002 6.88 4.91
1 May 2002 6.78 4.75
8 May 2002 6.79 4.80
15 May 2002 6.89 4.81
22 May 2002 6.81 4.85
29 May 2002 6.76 4.76
5 June 2002 6.71 4.71
12 June 2002 6.71 4.67
19 June 2002 6.63 4.60
26 June 2002 6.55 4.61
3 July 2002 6.57 4.58
10 July 2002 6.54 4.66
17 July 2002 6.49 4.50
24 July 2002 6.34 4.31
31 July 2002 6.43 4.45
7 August 2002 6.31 4.37
14 August 2002 6.22 4.39
21 August 2002 6.27 4.34
28 August 2002 6.22 4.34
4 September 2002 6.15 4.35
11 September 2002 6.18 4.32
18 September 2002 6.05 4.28
25 September 2002 5.99 4.22
2 October 2002 6.01 4.29
9 October 2002 5.98 4.23
16 October 2002 6.15 4.27
23 October 2002 6.31 4.30
30 October 2002 6.13 4.25
6 November 2002 6.11 4.15
13 November 2002 5.94 4.09
20 November 2002 6.03 4.14
27 November 2002 6.13 4.19
4 December 2002 6.19 4.21
11 December 2002 6.04 4.18
18 December 2002 6.03 4.07
25 December 2002 5.93 4.01
1 January 2003 5.85 4.06
8 January 2003 5.95 4.03
15 January 2003 5.97 4.03
22 January 2003 5.91 3.93
29 January 2003 5.90 3.89
5 February 2003 5.88 3.89
12 February 2003 5.86 3.89
19 February 2003 5.84 3.81
26 February 2003 5.79 3.83
5 March 2003 5.67 3.76
12 March 2003 5.61 3.68
19 March 2003 5.79 3.75
26 March 2003 5.91 3.84
2 April 2003 5.79 3.82
9 April 2003 5.85 3.80
16 April 2003 5.82 3.79
23 April 2003 5.79 3.79
30 April 2003 5.70 3.74
7 May 2003 5.62 3.66
14 May 2003 5.45 3.67
21 May 2003 5.34 3.61
28 May 2003 5.31 3.63
4 June 2003 5.26 3.59
11 June 2003 5.21 3.54
18 June 2003 5.21 3.51
25 June 2003 5.24 3.45
2 July 2003 5.40 3.49
9 July 2003 5.52 3.55
16 July 2003 5.67 3.58
23 July 2003 5.94 3.67
30 July 2003 6.14 3.68
6 August 2003 6.34 3.80
13 August 2003 6.24 3.75
20 August 2003 6.28 3.84
27 August 2003 6.32 3.88
3 September 2003 6.44 3.98
10 September 2003 6.16 3.87
17 September 2003 6.01 3.81
24 September 2003 5.98 3.77
1 October 2003 5.77 3.72
8 October 2003 5.95 3.69
15 October 2003 6.05 3.79
22 October 2003 6.05 3.76
29 October 2003 5.94 3.74
5 November 2003 5.98 3.73
12 November 2003 6.03 3.76
19 November 2003 5.83 3.72
26 November 2003 5.89 3.77
3 December 2003 6.02 3.77
10 December 2003 5.88 3.77
17 December 2003 5.82 3.77
24 December 2003 5.81 3.73
31 December 2003 5.85 3.72
7 January 2004 5.87 3.76
14 January 2004 5.66 3.62
21 January 2004 5.64 3.56
28 January 2004 5.68 3.59
4 February 2004 5.72 3.61
11 February 2004 5.66 3.57
18 February 2004 5.58 3.53
25 February 2004 5.58 3.50
3 March 2004 5.59 3.47
10 March 2004 5.41 3.41
17 March 2004 5.38 3.39
24 March 2004 5.40 3.36
31 March 2004 5.52 3.46
7 April 2004 5.79 3.65
14 April 2004 5.89 3.69
21 April 2004 5.94 3.69
28 April 2004 6.01 3.75
5 May 2004 6.12 3.76
12 May 2004 6.34 3.90
19 May 2004 6.30 3.99
26 May 2004 6.32 3.87
2 June 2004 6.28 3.98
9 June 2004 6.30 4.14
16 June 2004 6.32 4.13
23 June 2004 6.25 4.13
30 June 2004 6.21 4.19
7 July 2004 6.01 4.05
14 July 2004 6.00 4.02
21 July 2004 5.98 4.12
28 July 2004 6.08 4.17
4 August 2004 5.99 4.08
11 August 2004 5.85 4.08
18 August 2004 5.81 4.01
25 August 2004 5.82 4.05
1 September 2004 5.77 3.97
8 September 2004 5.83 4.00
15 September 2004 5.75 4.03
22 September 2004 5.70 4.00
29 September 2004 5.72 3.97
6 October 2004 5.82 4.08
13 October 2004 5.74 4.01
20 October 2004 5.69 4.02
27 October 2004 5.64 3.96
3 November 2004 5.70 4.00
10 November 2004 5.76 4.16
17 November 2004 5.74 4.17
24 November 2004 5.72 4.27
1 December 2004 5.81 4.19
8 December 2004 5.71 4.15
15 December 2004 5.68 4.18
22 December 2004 5.75 4.17
29 December 2004 5.81 4.19
5 January 2005 5.77 4.10
12 January 2005 5.74 4.10
19 January 2005 5.67 4.11
26 January 2005 5.66 4.18
2 February 2005 5.63 4.23
9 February 2005 5.57 4.11
16 February 2005 5.62 4.15
23 February 2005 5.69 4.16
2 March 2005 5.79 4.14
9 March 2005 5.85 4.24
16 March 2005 5.95 4.20
23 March 2005 6.01 4.24
30 March 2005 6.04 4.33
6 April 2005 5.93 4.23
13 April 2005 5.91 4.30
20 April 2005 5.80 4.26
27 April 2005 5.78 4.21
4 May 2005 5.75 4.22
11 May 2005 5.77 4.23
18 May 2005 5.71 4.26
25 May 2005 5.65 4.21
1 June 2005 5.62 4.26
8 June 2005 5.56 4.21
15 June 2005 5.63 4.25
22 June 2005 5.57 4.23
29 June 2005 5.53 4.24
6 July 2005 5.62 4.33
13 July 2005 5.66 4.39
20 July 2005 5.73 4.42
27 July 2005 5.77 4.46
3 August 2005 5.82 4.47
10 August 2005 5.89 4.57
17 August 2005 5.80 4.58
24 August 2005 5.77 4.56
31 August 2005 5.71 4.48
7 September 2005 5.71 4.45
14 September 2005 5.74 4.46
21 September 2005 5.80 4.48
28 September 2005 5.91 4.68
5 October 2005 5.98 4.77
12 October 2005 6.03 4.85
19 October 2005 6.10 4.89
26 October 2005 6.15 4.91
2 November 2005 6.31 5.09
9 November 2005 6.36 5.12
16 November 2005 6.37 5.20
23 November 2005 6.28 5.14
30 November 2005 6.26 5.16
7 December 2005 6.32 5.16
14 December 2005 6.30 5.15
21 December 2005 6.26 5.22
28 December 2005 6.22 5.15
4 January 2006 6.21 5.16
11 January 2006 6.15 5.15
18 January 2006 6.10 5.18
25 January 2006 6.12 5.20
1 February 2006 6.23 5.33
8 February 2006 6.24 5.34
15 February 2006 6.28 5.36
22 February 2006 6.26 5.32
1 March 2006 6.24 5.34
8 March 2006 6.37 5.45
15 March 2006 6.34 5.37
22 March 2006 6.32 5.41
29 March 2006 6.35 5.51
5 April 2006 6.43 5.57
12 April 2006 6.49 5.61
19 April 2006 6.53 5.63
26 April 2006 6.58 5.68
3 May 2006 6.59 5.67
10 May 2006 6.58 5.62
17 May 2006 6.60 5.62
24 May 2006 6.62 5.61
31 May 2006 6.67 5.68
7 June 2006 6.62 5.63
14 June 2006 6.63 5.66
21 June 2006 6.71 5.75
28 June 2006 6.78 5.82
5 July 2006 6.79 5.83
12 July 2006 6.74 5.75
19 July 2006 6.80 5.80
26 July 2006 6.72 5.78
2 August 2006 6.63 5.69
9 August 2006 6.55 5.69
16 August 2006 6.52 5.65
23 August 2006 6.48 5.60
30 August 2006 6.44 5.59
6 September 2006 6.47 5.63
13 September 2006 6.43 5.60
20 September 2006 6.40 5.54
27 September 2006 6.31 5.47
4 October 2006 6.30 5.46
11 October 2006 6.37 5.56
18 October 2006 6.36 5.57
25 October 2006 6.40 5.60
1 November 2006 6.31 5.53
8 November 2006 6.33 5.55
15 November 2006 6.24 5.53
22 November 2006 6.18 5.49
29 November 2006 6.14 5.46
6 December 2006 6.11 5.43
13 December 2006 6.12 5.45
20 December 2006 6.13 5.44
27 December 2006 6.18 5.47
3 January 2007 6.18 5.42
10 January 2007 6.21 5.44
17 January 2007 6.23 5.51
24 January 2007 6.25 5.49
31 January 2007 6.34 5.54
7 February 2007 6.28 5.49
14 February 2007 6.30 5.52
21 February 2007 6.22 5.49
28 February 2007 6.18 5.49
7 March 2007 6.14 5.47
14 March 2007 6.14 5.42
21 March 2007 6.16 5.40
28 March 2007 6.16 5.43
4 April 2007 6.17 5.44
11 April 2007 6.22 5.47
18 April 2007 6.17 5.45
25 April 2007 6.16 5.43
2 May 2007 6.16 5.42
9 May 2007 6.15 5.48
16 May 2007 6.21 5.48
23 May 2007 6.37 5.64
30 May 2007 6.42 5.57
6 June 2007 6.53 5.65
13 June 2007 6.74 5.75
20 June 2007 6.69 5.66
27 June 2007 6.67 5.65
4 July 2007 6.63 5.71
11 July 2007 6.73 5.71
18 July 2007 6.73 5.72
25 July 2007 6.69 5.69
1 August 2007 6.68 5.59
8 August 2007 6.59 5.65
15 August 2007 6.62 5.67
22 August 2007 6.52 5.60
29 August 2007 6.45 5.84
5 September 2007 6.46 5.74
12 September 2007 6.31 5.66
19 September 2007 6.34 5.65
26 September 2007 6.42 5.60
3 October 2007 6.37 5.58
10 October 2007 6.40 5.73
17 October 2007 6.40 5.76
24 October 2007 6.33 5.66
31 October 2007 6.26 5.57
7 November 2007 6.24 5.50
14 November 2007 6.24 5.50
21 November 2007 6.20 5.42
28 November 2007 6.10 5.43
5 December 2007 5.96 5.46
12 December 2007 6.11 5.50
19 December 2007 6.14 5.51
26 December 2007 6.17 5.53
2 January 2008 6.07 5.47
9 January 2008 5.87 5.37
16 January 2008 5.69 5.26
23 January 2008 5.48 4.99
30 January 2008 5.68 5.05
6 February 2008 5.67 5.03
13 February 2008 5.72 5.00
20 February 2008 6.04 4.98
27 February 2008 6.24 5.11
5 March 2008 6.03 4.94
12 March 2008 6.13 5.14
19 March 2008 5.87 5.15
26 March 2008 5.85 5.24
2 April 2008 5.88 5.19
9 April 2008 5.88 5.18
16 April 2008 5.88 5.10
23 April 2008 6.03 5.29
30 April 2008 6.06 5.29
7 May 2008 6.05 5.29
14 May 2008 6.01 5.18
21 May 2008 5.98 5.24
28 May 2008 6.08 5.22
4 June 2008 6.09 5.06
11 June 2008 6.32 5.09
18 June 2008 6.42 5.19
25 June 2008 6.45 5.27
2 July 2008 6.35 5.17
9 July 2008 6.37 5.17
16 July 2008 6.26 5.10
23 July 2008 6.63 5.49
30 July 2008 6.52 5.27
6 August 2008 6.52 5.22
13 August 2008 6.52 5.18
20 August 2008 6.47 5.29
27 August 2008 6.40 5.33
3 September 2008 6.35 5.15
10 September 2008 5.93 5.21
17 September 2008 5.78 5.03
24 September 2008 6.09 5.16
1 October 2008 6.10 5.12
8 October 2008 5.94 5.15
15 October 2008 6.46 5.16
22 October 2008 6.04 5.23
29 October 2008 6.46 5.38
5 November 2008 6.20 5.25
12 November 2008 6.14 5.33
19 November 2008 6.04 5.29
26 November 2008 5.97 5.18
3 December 2008 5.53 5.02
10 December 2008 5.47 5.09
17 December 2008 5.19 4.94
24 December 2008 5.14 4.95
31 December 2008 5.10 4.85
7 January 2009 5.01 4.95
14 January 2009 4.96 4.89
21 January 2009 5.12 4.92
28 January 2009 5.10 4.90
4 February 2009 5.25 4.92
11 February 2009 5.16 4.94
18 February 2009 5.04 4.80
25 February 2009 5.07 4.81
4 March 2009 5.15 4.86
11 March 2009 5.03 4.80
18 March 2009 4.98 4.91
25 March 2009 4.85 4.85
1 April 2009 4.78 4.75
8 April 2009 4.87 4.83
15 April 2009 4.82 4.91
22 April 2009 4.80 4.82
29 April 2009 4.78 4.77
6 May 2009 4.84 4.78
13 May 2009 4.86 4.71
20 May 2009 4.82 4.82
27 May 2009 4.91 4.69
3 June 2009 5.29 4.81
10 June 2009 5.59 5.04
17 June 2009 5.38 4.95
24 June 2009 5.42 4.93
1 July 2009 5.32 4.94
8 July 2009 5.20 4.82
15 July 2009 5.14 4.76
22 July 2009 5.20 4.77
29 July 2009 5.25 4.80
5 August 2009 5.22 4.78
12 August 2009 5.29 4.72
19 August 2009 5.12 4.69
26 August 2009 5.14 4.69
2 September 2009 5.08 4.62
9 September 2009 5.07 4.64
16 September 2009 5.04 4.58
23 September 2009 5.04 4.52
30 September 2009 4.94 4.49
7 October 2009 4.87 4.53
14 October 2009 4.92 4.60
21 October 2009 5.00 4.54
28 October 2009 5.03 4.57
4 November 2009 4.98 4.47
11 November 2009 4.91 4.46
18 November 2009 4.83 4.35
25 November 2009 4.78 4.35
2 December 2009 4.71 4.25
9 December 2009 4.81 4.24
16 December 2009 4.94 4.34
23 December 2009 5.05 4.38
30 December 2009 5.14 4.33
6 January 2010 5.09 4.31
13 January 2010 5.06 4.39
20 January 2010 4.99 4.32
27 January 2010 4.98 4.29
3 February 2010 5.01 4.22
10 February 2010 4.97 4.33
17 February 2010 4.93 4.23
24 February 2010 5.05 4.15
3 March 2010 4.97 4.27
10 March 2010 4.95 4.22
17 March 2010 4.96 4.12
24 March 2010 4.99 4.20
31 March 2010 5.08 4.05
7 April 2010 5.21 4.14
14 April 2010 5.07 4.13
21 April 2010 5.07 4.22
28 April 2010 5.06 4.25
5 May 2010 5.00 4.07
12 May 2010 4.93 4.02
19 May 2010 4.84 4.00
26 May 2010 4.78 3.95
2 June 2010 4.79 3.95
9 June 2010 4.72 3.91
16 June 2010 4.75 3.82
23 June 2010 4.69 3.77
30 June 2010 4.58 3.80
7 July 2010 4.57 3.75
14 July 2010 4.57 3.74
21 July 2010 4.56 3.70
28 July 2010 4.54 3.64
4 August 2010 4.49 3.55
11 August 2010 4.44 3.53
18 August 2010 4.42 3.53
25 August 2010 4.36 3.52
1 September 2010 4.32 3.50
8 September 2010 4.35 3.46
15 September 2010 4.37 3.40
22 September 2010 4.37 3.46
29 September 2010 4.32 3.48
6 October 2010 4.27 3.40
13 October 2010 4.19 3.43
20 October 2010 4.21 3.30
27 October 2010 4.23 3.30
3 November 2010 4.24 3.26
10 November 2010 4.17 3.26
17 November 2010 4.39 3.26
24 November 2010 4.40 3.23
1 December 2010 4.46 3.25
8 December 2010 4.61 3.27
15 December 2010 4.83 3.35
22 December 2010 4.81 3.40
29 December 2010 4.86 3.26
5 January 2011 4.77 3.24
12 January 2011 4.71 3.23
19 January 2011 4.74 3.25
26 January 2011 4.80 3.26
2 February 2011 4.81 3.26
9 February 2011 5.05 3.35
16 February 2011 5.00 3.39
23 February 2011 4.95 3.40
2 March 2011 4.87 3.23
9 March 2011 4.88 3.21
16 March 2011 4.76 3.17
23 March 2011 4.81 3.21
30 March 2011 4.86 3.26
6 April 2011 4.87 3.22
13 April 2011 4.91 3.25
20 April 2011 4.80 3.16
27 April 2011 4.78 3.15
4 May 2011 4.71 3.14
11 May 2011 4.63 3.11
18 May 2011 4.61 3.15
25 May 2011 4.60 3.11
1 June 2011 4.55 3.13
8 June 2011 4.49 2.95
15 June 2011 4.50 2.97
22 June 2011 4.50 2.99
29 June 2011 4.51 2.97
6 July 2011 4.60 3.01

Note: The data, which are weekly and extend through July 6, 2011, are contract rates on 30-year mortgages.

Source: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation.

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Figure 7. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, 2005-11

Billions of chained (2005) dollars

Period Personal consumption expenditures
January 2005 8,692.33
February 2005 8,724.14
March 2005 8,740.49
April 2005 8,802.20
May 2005 8,763.84
June 2005 8,842.81
July 2005 8,896.20
August 2005 8,867.81
September 2005 8,832.73
October 2005 8,852.83
November 2005 8,887.23
December 2005 8,925.38
January 2006 8,961.45
February 2006 8,987.49
March 2006 9,010.94
April 2006 9,027.21
May 2006 9,033.92
June 2006 9,044.01
July 2006 9,089.60
August 2006 9,070.43
September 2006 9,112.10
October 2006 9,159.11
November 2006 9,166.67
December 2006 9,219.08
January 2007 9,227.11
February 2007 9,234.92
March 2007 9,243.50
April 2007 9,261.78
May 2007 9,276.41
June 2007 9,273.19
July 2007 9,289.02
August 2007 9,315.01
September 2007 9,325.98
October 2007 9,326.32
November 2007 9,344.95
December 2007 9,355.48
January 2008 9,340.00
February 2008 9,309.94
March 2008 9,322.27
April 2008 9,331.87
May 2008 9,326.93
June 2008 9,319.88
July 2008 9,267.08
August 2008 9,256.39
September 2008 9,206.97
October 2008 9,186.87
November 2008 9,182.19
December 2008 9,129.79
January 2009 9,175.89
February 2009 9,161.06
March 2009 9,125.45
April 2009 9,114.56
May 2009 9,117.96
June 2009 9,118.41
July 2009 9,131.27
August 2009 9,212.69
September 2009 9,140.85
October 2009 9,171.05
November 2009 9,178.18
December 2009 9,199.34
January 2010 9,189.31
February 2010 9,228.20
March 2010 9,258.61
April 2010 9,257.18
May 2010 9,280.51
June 2010 9,289.27
July 2010 9,302.57
August 2010 9,333.93
September 2010 9,355.39
October 2010 9,402.77
November 2010 9,426.60
December 2010 9,439.32
January 2011 9,443.88
February 2011 9,479.54
March 2011 9,496.55
April 2011 9,490.62
May 2011 9,478.47

Note: The data are monthly and extend through May 2011.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 8. Personal Saving Rate, 1991-2011

Percent

Period Personal saving rate
1991:Q1 7.00
1991:Q2 7.00
1991:Q3 6.80
1991:Q4 7.40
1992:Q1 7.40
1992:Q2 7.60
1992:Q3 7.00
1992:Q4 7.40
1993:Q1 5.60
1993:Q2 6.20
1993:Q3 5.40
1993:Q4 6.00
1994:Q1 4.60
1994:Q2 5.40
1994:Q3 5.30
1994:Q4 5.60
1995:Q1 6.10
1995:Q2 5.20
1995:Q3 5.00
1995:Q4 4.80
1996:Q1 4.90
1996:Q2 4.80
1996:Q3 5.00
1996:Q4 4.70
1997:Q1 4.60
1997:Q2 4.90
1997:Q3 4.40
1997:Q4 4.60
1998:Q1 5.80
1998:Q2 5.50
1998:Q3 5.20
1998:Q4 4.50
1999:Q1 4.30
1999:Q2 3.00
1999:Q3 2.40
1999:Q4 2.60
2000:Q1 3.10
2000:Q2 3.10
2000:Q3 3.10
2000:Q4 2.40
2001:Q1 2.80
2001:Q2 2.10
2001:Q3 4.20
2001:Q4 1.60
2002:Q1 4.00
2002:Q2 4.00
2002:Q3 3.10
2002:Q4 3.10
2003:Q1 3.10
2003:Q2 3.50
2003:Q3 3.60
2003:Q4 3.60
2004:Q1 3.20
2004:Q2 3.60
2004:Q3 3.30
2004:Q4 3.60
2005:Q1 1.60
2005:Q2 1.30
2005:Q3 1.20
2005:Q4 1.50
2006:Q1 2.20
2006:Q2 2.50
2006:Q3 2.30
2006:Q4 2.50
2007:Q1 2.30
2007:Q2 2.00
2007:Q3 1.80
2007:Q4 2.10
2008:Q1 2.70
2008:Q2 4.80
2008:Q3 3.60
2008:Q4 5.20
2009:Q1 5.40
2009:Q2 7.20
2009:Q3 5.60
2009:Q4 5.50
2010:Q1 5.50
2010:Q2 6.20
2010:Q3 6.00
2010:Q4 5.40
2011:Q1 5.10
2011:Q2 4.95

Note: The data are quarterly and extend through 2011:Q2; the reading for 2011:Q2 is the average for April and May.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 9. Change in Real Disposable Personal Income and in Real Wage and Salary Disbursements, 2005-11

Percent, annual rate

Period Real disposable personal income Real wage and salary disbursements
2005 -1.08 1.85
2006 4.36 5.02
2007 1.47 1.32
2008 0.76 -3.06
2009 0.76 -4.10
2010 1.99 1.78
2011 0.10 -0.05

Note: Through 2010, change is from December to December; for 2011, change is from December to May.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 10. Wealth-To-Income Ratio, 1991-2011

Period Ratio
1991:Q1 4.85
1991:Q2 4.80
1991:Q3 4.81
1991:Q4 4.87
1992:Q1 4.77
1992:Q2 4.71
1992:Q3 4.72
1992:Q4 4.75
1993:Q1 4.86
1993:Q2 4.80
1993:Q3 4.86
1993:Q4 4.85
1994:Q1 4.84
1994:Q2 4.77
1994:Q3 4.78
1994:Q4 4.73
1995:Q1 4.78
1995:Q2 4.88
1995:Q3 4.97
1995:Q4 5.04
1996:Q1 5.07
1996:Q2 5.09
1996:Q3 5.09
1996:Q4 5.10
1997:Q1 5.07
1997:Q2 5.31
1997:Q3 5.43
1997:Q4 5.40
1998:Q1 5.56
1998:Q2 5.58
1998:Q3 5.31
1998:Q4 5.66
1999:Q1 5.70
1999:Q2 5.89
1999:Q3 5.75
1999:Q4 6.11
2000:Q1 6.13
2000:Q2 5.99
2000:Q3 5.96
2000:Q4 5.73
2001:Q1 5.48
2001:Q2 5.64
2001:Q3 5.25
2001:Q4 5.53
2002:Q1 5.44
2002:Q2 5.21
2002:Q3 5.00
2002:Q4 5.10
2003:Q1 5.05
2003:Q2 5.23
2003:Q3 5.26
2003:Q4 5.51
2004:Q1 5.59
2004:Q2 5.61
2004:Q3 5.59
2004:Q4 5.76
2005:Q1 5.92
2005:Q2 6.06
2005:Q3 6.13
2005:Q4 6.21
2006:Q1 6.34
2006:Q2 6.20
2006:Q3 6.20
2006:Q4 6.34
2007:Q1 6.34
2007:Q2 6.36
2007:Q3 6.25
2007:Q4 6.04
2008:Q1 5.72
2008:Q2 5.40
2008:Q3 5.18
2008:Q4 4.71
2009:Q1 4.54
2009:Q2 4.56
2009:Q3 4.82
2009:Q4 4.86
2010:Q1 4.93
2010:Q2 4.76
2010:Q3 4.80
2010:Q4 4.97
2011:Q1 4.99

Note: The data are quarterly and extend through 2011:Q1. The wealth-to-income ratio is the ratio of household net worth to disposable personal income.

Source: For net worth, Federal Reserve Board, flow of funds data; for income, Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 11. Consumer Sentiment Indexes, 2001-11

Series: Conference Board, Thomson Reuters/Michigan

Horizon: 2001 to 2011

Description: Data are plotted as two curves and are expressed as indexes (for the Conference Board data, 1985 = 100; for the Thomson Reuters/Michigan data, 1966 = 100).

The Conference Board curve starts at about 112 in 2001, and the Thomson Reuters/Michigan curve starts at about 90. The Conference Board curve then rises to about 120 in early 2001 and falls to about 85 in year-end 2001; the Thomson Reuters/Michigan curve rises to about 93 in early 2001 and falls to about 80 in year-end 2001. The Conference Board curve fluctuates between about 78 and 115 and the Thomson Reuters/Michigan curve fluctuates between about 78 and 95 until early 2003, when the Conference Board curve temporarily drops to about 60 and the Thomson Reuters/Michigan curve reaches about 80. From mid-2003 through mid-2007, the Conference Board curve generally trends up and reaches about 110 in mid-2007, while the Thomson Reuters/Michigan curve generally fluctuates within a range of about 85 to 95 in the period. From mid-2007 through early 2009, the curves decline sharply, on net, with Conference Board reaching near 20 and Thomson Reuters/Michigan a bit below 60 by the end of the period. The curves then increase through mid-2009 and level out around 50 for Conference Board and 70 for Thomson Reuters/Michigan in year-end 2009. Toward the end of 2010, both curves dip before shooting upward in the first two months of 2011. By mid-2011, the end of the charted data for Conference Board is on the decline at about 60, and the data for Thomson Reuters/Michigan is almost 75.

The curves overlap in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2008.

Note: The Conference Board data are monthly and extend through June 2011; the series is indexed to equal 100 in 1985. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan data are monthly and extend through June 2011; the series is indexed to equal 100 in 1966.

Source: The Conference Board and Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

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Figure 12. Household Debt Service, 1984-2011

Percent of disposable income

Period Household debt service
1984:Q1 10.70
1984:Q2 10.84
1984:Q3 10.94
1984:Q4 11.07
1985:Q1 11.41
1985:Q2 11.50
1985:Q3 11.86
1985:Q4 11.97
1986:Q1 11.99
1986:Q2 12.08
1986:Q3 12.22
1986:Q4 12.38
1987:Q1 12.22
1987:Q2 12.38
1987:Q3 12.25
1987:Q4 12.08
1988:Q1 12.03
1988:Q2 12.01
1988:Q3 11.98
1988:Q4 11.85
1989:Q1 11.83
1989:Q2 12.02
1989:Q3 12.11
1989:Q4 12.12
1990:Q1 12.05
1990:Q2 12.02
1990:Q3 12.02
1990:Q4 12.03
1991:Q1 11.99
1991:Q2 11.83
1991:Q3 11.73
1991:Q4 11.53
1992:Q1 11.30
1992:Q2 11.14
1992:Q3 10.99
1992:Q4 10.81
1993:Q1 10.99
1993:Q2 10.80
1993:Q3 10.85
1993:Q4 10.73
1994:Q1 10.86
1994:Q2 10.86
1994:Q3 10.96
1994:Q4 11.06
1995:Q1 11.25
1995:Q2 11.47
1995:Q3 11.59
1995:Q4 11.67
1996:Q1 11.69
1996:Q2 11.73
1996:Q3 11.80
1996:Q4 11.87
1997:Q1 11.83
1997:Q2 11.86
1997:Q3 11.89
1997:Q4 11.85
1998:Q1 11.73
1998:Q2 11.76
1998:Q3 11.76
1998:Q4 11.81
1999:Q1 11.88
1999:Q2 12.03
1999:Q3 12.16
1999:Q4 12.13
2000:Q1 12.03
2000:Q2 12.20
2000:Q3 12.36
2000:Q4 12.59
2001:Q1 12.66
2001:Q2 12.86
2001:Q3 12.73
2001:Q4 13.10
2002:Q1 12.95
2002:Q2 13.01
2002:Q3 13.18
2002:Q4 13.24
2003:Q1 13.26
2003:Q2 13.21
2003:Q3 13.15
2003:Q4 13.21
2004:Q1 13.23
2004:Q2 13.20
2004:Q3 13.35
2004:Q4 13.31
2005:Q1 13.68
2005:Q2 13.80
2005:Q3 13.68
2005:Q4 13.77
2006:Q1 13.72
2006:Q2 13.78
2006:Q3 13.87
2006:Q4 13.87
2007:Q1 13.84
2007:Q2 13.87
2007:Q3 13.95
2007:Q4 13.89
2008:Q1 13.80
2008:Q2 13.35
2008:Q3 13.48
2008:Q4 13.51
2009:Q1 13.43
2009:Q2 13.02
2009:Q3 12.92
2009:Q4 12.68
2010:Q1 12.39
2010:Q2 12.08
2010:Q3 11.92
2010:Q4 11.75
2011:Q1 11.51

Note: The data are quarterly and extend through 2011:Q1. Debt service payments consist of estimated required payments on outstanding mortgage and consumer debt.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, "Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios," statistical release.

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Figure 13. Spreads of Asset-Backed Securities Yields Over Rates on Comparable-Maturity Interest Rate Swaps, 2007-11

Series: Auto and credit card

Horizon: 2007 to 2011

Description: Data are plotted as two curves. Units are basis points.

The two series move very closely together through the horizon. From January 2007 through July 2007, both series remain very close to 0. From July 2007 to March 2008, auto rises to around 150, and credit card rises to around 110. Auto falls to around 90, and credit card falls to around 60 by July 2008. Auto then rapidly rises to around 550, and credit card rapidly rises to around 530 by late 2008. Both series quickly fall to around 100 in June 2009; they then continue to fall more gradually to reach levels around 10 by January 2010. Both series remain generally at that level from January 2010 until the end of the horizon in early July 2011.

Note: The data are weekly and extend through July 7, 2011. The spreads shown are the yields on two-year fixed-rate asset-backed securities less rates on two-year interest rate swaps.

Source: JPMorgan Chase & Co.

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Figure 14. Change in Real Business Fixed Investment, 2005-11

Percent, annual rate

Period Structures Equipment and software Structures excluding mining and drilling Mining and drilling
2005 -0.12 6.08 -0.96 4.27
2006 12.98 6.01 9.65 24.01
2007 17.29 4.29 23.40 0.75
2008 -1.45 -11.76 -5.67 12.35
2009 -26.50 -4.89 -20.39 -43.54
2010 -4.00 16.91 -16.93 51.79
2011:Q1 -14.75 8.75 -24.78 10.12

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 15. Change in Real Business Inventories, 2005-11

Billions of chained (2005) dollars, annual rate

Period Change in real business inventories
2005 49.95
2006 59.42
2007 19.47
2008 -25.89
2009 -113.12
2010:H1 56.49
2010:Q3 121.41
2010:Q4 16.22
2011:Q1 55.74

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 16. Selected Components of Net Financing for Nonfinancial Businesses, 2005-11

Billions of dollars, monthly rate

Period Commercial paper Bonds Bank loans Sum
2005 -0.23 4.72 10.94 15.43
2006 2.42 17.96 11.84 32.22
2007 -0.44 25.93 20.54 46.03
2008 1.61 17.05 6.94 25.60
2009 -7.18 31.44 -21.86 2.40
2010:H1 5.08 27.67 -14.82 17.92
2010:H2 -0.25 42.31 1.92 43.98
2011:Q1 2.64 31.46 7.68 41.78
2011:Q2 4.62 36.42 6.58 47.62

Note: The data for the components except bonds are seasonally adjusted.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, flow of funds data.

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Figure 17. Issuance of Institutional Leveraged Loans, 2005-11

Horizon: 2005 to 2011:Q1

Description: Data are plotted as a bar graph. Units are billions of dollars, annual rate.

The series rises from about 250 in 2005 to about 360 in 2006. It rises to about 425 in 2007. In 2008, it is about 75; in 2009, it is about 60. Quarterly data, which are provided after 2009, show the series rising from about 150 in 2010:Q1 to about 275 by 2010:Q4. In 2011:Q1, it rises to about 425.

Source: Reuters Loan Pricing Corporation.

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Figure 18. Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards and Widening Spreads Over the Banks' Cost of Funds for Large and Medium-Sized Business Borrowers, 1998-2011

Percent

Period Standards Spreads
1998:Q1 1.8 -25.4
1998:Q2 -7.1 -34.0
1998:Q3 0.0 -14.3
1998:Q4 36.4 47.3
1999:Q1 7.4 31.4
1999:Q2 10.0 7.1
1999:Q3 5.4 21.5
1999:Q4 9.1 23.6
2000:Q1 10.9 25.0
2000:Q2 24.6 35.2
2000:Q3 33.9 35.8
2000:Q4 43.8 54.4
2001:Q1 59.7 57.1
2001:Q2 50.9 44.4
2001:Q3 40.4 50.8
2001:Q4 50.9 58.9
2002:Q1 45.4 40.0
2002:Q2 25.0 23.7
2002:Q3 21.4 41.1
2002:Q4 20.0 29.1
2003:Q1 22.0 27.1
2003:Q2 8.9 14.6
2003:Q3 3.5 -12.3
2003:Q4 0.0 -13.8
2004:Q1 -17.9 -26.8
2004:Q2 -23.2 -39.3
2004:Q3 -20.0 -30.8
2004:Q4 -21.1 -50.0
2005:Q1 -23.6 -45.5
2005:Q2 -24.1 -70.4
2005:Q3 -16.7 -46.3
2005:Q4 -8.8 -45.6
2006:Q1 -10.7 -42.5
2006:Q2 -12.3 -59.7
2006:Q3 -8.9 -41.8
2006:Q4 0.0 -29.6
2007:Q1 0.0 -44.6
2007:Q2 -3.7 -52.8
2007:Q3 7.5 -32.1
2007:Q4 19.2 34.6
2008:Q1 32.2 43.6
2008:Q2 55.4 71.0
2008:Q3 57.6 80.8
2008:Q4 83.6 98.2
2009:Q1 64.2 92.5
2009:Q2 39.6 79.2
2009:Q3 31.5 59.3
2009:Q4 14.0 40.4
2010:Q1 -5.5 9.1
2010:Q2 -7.1 -7.1
2010:Q3 -8.8 -49.1
2010:Q4 -10.5 -33.3
2011:Q1 -10.5 -47.4
2011:Q2 -16.4 -54.5

Note: The data are drawn from a survey generally conducted four times per year; the last observation is from the April 2011 survey, which covers 2011:Q1. Net percentage is the percentage of banks reporting a tightening of standards or a widening of spreads less the percentage reporting an easing or a narrowing. The definition for firm size suggested for, and generally used by, survey respondents is that large and medium-sized firms have annual sales of $50 million or more.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices.

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Figure 19. Net Percentage of Small Businesses That Reported More Difficulty in Obtaining Credit, 1990-2011

Period Percent
January 1990 6.50
February 1990 7.27
March 1990 6.86
April 1990 7.08
May 1990 8.64
June 1990 9.67
July 1990 9.57
August 1990 10.98
September 1990 11.04
October 1990 10.20
November 1990 10.15
December 1990 10.95
January 1991 10.70
February 1991 9.09
March 1991 12.87
April 1991 11.17
May 1991 7.77
June 1991 9.41
July 1991 10.74
August 1991 11.80
September 1991 10.11
October 1991 10.09
November 1991 12.34
December 1991 9.97
January 1992 8.81
February 1992 9.95
March 1992 11.74
April 1992 8.16
May 1992 8.00
June 1992 6.11
July 1992 7.88
August 1992 7.76
September 1992 10.31
October 1992 6.84
November 1992 8.50
December 1992 8.14
January 1993 7.79
February 1993 7.82
March 1993 7.57
April 1993 7.07
May 1993 7.28
June 1993 7.85
July 1993 3.94
August 1993 5.94
September 1993 5.41
October 1993 6.57
November 1993 4.66
December 1993 5.35
January 1994 4.67
February 1994 5.83
March 1994 4.40
April 1994 2.87
May 1994 5.53
June 1994 5.56
July 1994 4.97
August 1994 5.23
September 1994 6.51
October 1994 6.31
November 1994 5.78
December 1994 5.58
January 1995 6.50
February 1995 5.88
March 1995 6.28
April 1995 5.72
May 1995 4.65
June 1995 4.33
July 1995 4.05
August 1995 4.47
September 1995 2.44
October 1995 3.31
November 1995 2.79
December 1995 2.79
January 1996 3.32
February 1996 2.00
March 1996 3.13
April 1996 3.57
May 1996 2.73
June 1996 3.32
July 1996 4.08
August 1996 2.48
September 1996 3.44
October 1996 4.49
November 1996 3.68
December 1996 3.85
January 1997 3.18
February 1997 4.16
March 1997 3.01
April 1997 3.49
May 1997 2.70
June 1997 3.44
July 1997 3.08
August 1997 2.48
September 1997 3.39
October 1997 0.86
November 1997 4.40
December 1997 1.83
January 1998 2.09
February 1998 1.14
March 1998 1.99
April 1998 1.54
May 1998 2.63
June 1998 2.69
July 1998 1.00
August 1998 2.45
September 1998 2.40
October 1998 1.17
November 1998 2.14
December 1998 -0.24
January 1999 2.01
February 1999 3.15
March 1999 2.96
April 1999 -0.42
May 1999 2.48
June 1999 1.98
July 1999 2.96
August 1999 3.45
September 1999 1.43
October 1999 3.44
November 1999 2.90
December 1999 4.68
January 2000 3.98
February 2000 2.99
March 2000 3.85
April 2000 4.71
May 2000 4.46
June 2000 7.31
July 2000 4.91
August 2000 4.39
September 2000 5.56
October 2000 4.54
November 2000 6.70
December 2000 4.53
January 2001 4.99
February 2001 4.95
March 2001 2.70
April 2001 2.82
May 2001 3.54
June 2001 2.49
July 2001 3.85
August 2001 3.40
September 2001 7.68
October 2001 3.57
November 2001 0.57
December 2001 2.30
January 2002 3.04
February 2002 2.84
March 2002 4.64
April 2002 5.97
May 2002 4.66
June 2002 3.69
July 2002 3.83
August 2002 3.30
September 2002 2.75
October 2002 3.52
November 2002 -0.54
December 2002 5.11
January 2003 4.04
February 2003 4.94
March 2003 4.55
April 2003 2.11
May 2003 2.76
June 2003 4.85
July 2003 2.87
August 2003 3.07
September 2003 3.77
October 2003 3.47
November 2003 4.47
December 2003 2.90
January 2004 2.05
February 2004 3.02
March 2004 2.44
April 2004 2.30
May 2004 2.87
June 2004 4.08
July 2004 4.00
August 2004 3.74
September 2004 3.68
October 2004 3.40
November 2004 2.44
December 2004 4.73
January 2005 4.02
February 2005 3.27
March 2005 2.39
April 2005 5.44
May 2005 4.92
June 2005 3.29
July 2005 4.05
August 2005 4.47
September 2005 3.41
October 2005 4.43
November 2005 5.53
December 2005 2.62
January 2006 5.93
February 2006 5.49
March 2006 5.47
April 2006 4.47
May 2006 4.79
June 2006 5.56
July 2006 6.07
August 2006 7.33
September 2006 3.13
October 2006 6.48
November 2006 5.54
December 2006 5.62
January 2007 4.86
February 2007 5.76
March 2007 6.53
April 2007 5.39
May 2007 5.69
June 2007 5.71
July 2007 5.00
August 2007 6.41
September 2007 8.79
October 2007 6.56
November 2007 6.70
December 2007 6.57
January 2008 6.89
February 2008 5.81
March 2008 6.67
April 2008 9.28
May 2008 7.54
June 2008 7.71
July 2008 8.99
August 2008 9.62
September 2008 10.52
October 2008 9.65
November 2008 10.75
December 2008 11.51
January 2009 12.95
February 2009 13.84
March 2009 11.85
April 2009 14.15
May 2009 15.46
June 2009 14.63
July 2009 14.93
August 2009 13.85
September 2009 13.25
October 2009 14.77
November 2009 14.90
December 2009 14.42
January 2010 13.99
February 2010 12.77
March 2010 15.11
April 2010 14.00
May 2010 12.29
June 2010 13.63
July 2010 12.89
August 2010 11.97
September 2010 13.18
October 2010 11.87
November 2010 10.94
December 2010 11.40
January 2011 9.96
February 2011 11.72
March 2011 8.24
April 2011 8.94
May 2011 9.24

Note: The data are drawn from a survey conducted monthly and are seasonally adjusted; the last observation is from the June 2011 survey, which covers May 2011. The data represent the proportion of borrowers who sought credit in the past three months that reported more difficulty in obtaining credit less the proportion that reported more ease in obtaining credit.

Source: National Federation of Independent Business.

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Figure 20. Delinquency Rates on Commercial Real Estate Loans, 1991-2011

Series: Construction and land development delinquency rates on loans held by commercial banks, and nonfarm nonresidential delinquency rates on loans held by commercial banks are plotted in the upper panel; delinquency rates for commercial real estate loans held by life insurance companies and in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) are plotted in the lower panel.

Horizon: 1991 to 2011

Description: Data are plotted as two series in the upper panel and two series in the lower panel. Units are percent.

In the upper panel, the construction and land development delinquency rate series starts in 1991 at around 18, remains at about that level through early 1993, then falls evenly to around 3 by mid-1999. It remains at about that level until 2006 and then rises quickly to around 18 by 2008. It remains elevated at around 18 until mid-2010 and then falls to end at around 16 by mid-2011.

The nonfarm nonresidential delinquency rate starts in 1991 at around 10 and slowly falls to around 3 by 1999. It remains at about that level until mid-2008 and then rises slowly to end at around 5 by early 2011.

In the lower panel, the delinquency rate for loans held by life insurance companies starts in 1991 at about 5, rises to almost 8 in 1992, then declines steadily to around 0 by late 2004, and remains at about that level until early 2011.

The series for CMBS starts in 1999 at around 1, rises slowly to around 2 in late 2003, falls to about 1 in mid-2008, and then rises sharply to end at 10 by mid-2011.

Note: The data for commercial banks and life insurance companies are quarterly and extend through 2011:Q1. The data for CMBS are monthly and extend through June 2011. The delinquency rates for commercial banks and CMBS are the percent of loans 30 days or more past due or not accruing interest. The delinquency rate for life insurance companies is the percent of loans 60 days or more past due or not accruing interest.

Source: For commercial banks, Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income (Call Report); for life insurance companies, American Council of Life Insurers; for CMBS, Citigroup.

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Figure 21. Components of Net Equity Issuance, 2005-11

Billions of dollars, monthly rate

Period Public issuance Private issuance Repurchases Mergers and acquisitions Total
2005 4.56 8.68 -27.53 -15.02 -29.31
2006 4.67 13.25 -35.87 -24.60 -42.55
2007 5.45 19.27 -44.51 -38.38 -58.17
2008 3.73 21.94 -29.76 -15.52 -19.60
2009:H1 5.34 15.17 -9.44 -6.09 4.98
2009:H2 5.18 11.80 -12.98 -15.98 -11.98
2010:H1 4.40 9.52 -21.84 -10.76 -18.67
2010:H2 5.73 8.70 -27.05 -13.47 -26.09
2011:Q1 6.30 8.61 -30.00 -14.87 -29.96

Note: The data for 2011:Q1 are estimates. Net equity issuance is the difference between equity issued by domestic companies in public or private markets and equity retired through share repurchases, domestic cash-financed mergers, or foreign takeovers of U.S. firms. Equity issuance includes funds invested by private equity partnerships and stock option proceeds.

Source: Thomson Financial, Investment Benchmark Report; Money Tree Report by PricewaterhouseCoopers, National Venture Capital Association, and Venture Economics.

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Figure 22. Federal Receipts and Expenditures, 1991-2011

Percent of nominal GDP

Period Expenditures Receipts
1991 22.33 17.79
1992 22.13 17.48
1993 21.40 17.53
1994 20.95 18.04
1995 20.65 18.42
1996 20.22 18.83
1997 19.50 19.23
1998 19.08 19.88
1999 18.48 19.85
2000 18.22 20.62
2001 18.22 19.48
2002 19.07 17.58
2003 19.67 16.23
2004 19.62 16.09
2005 19.86 17.31
2006 20.08 18.20
2007 19.64 18.49
2008 20.72 17.53
2009 24.95 14.93
2010 23.81 14.90
2011 24.00 15.39

Note: Through 2010, receipts and expenditures are for fiscal years (October through September); gross domestic product (GDP) is for the four quarters ending in Q3. For 2011, receipts and expenditures are for the 12 months ending in May, and GDP is the average of 2010:Q4 and 2011:Q1. Receipts and expenditures are on a unified-budget basis.

Source: Office of Management and Budget.

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Figure 23. Change in Real Government Expenditures on Consumption and Investment, 2005-11

Percent, annual rate

Period Federal State and local
2005 1.15 0.38
2006 2.15 1.16
2007 3.11 1.21
2008 9.19 -0.42
2009 3.64 -1.02
2010 4.78 -1.27
2011:Q1 -8.05 -4.15

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 24. Federal Government Debt Held By the Public, 1960-2011

Period Percent of nominal GDP
1960 45.06
1961 43.22
1962 42.14
1963 40.07
1964 38.47
1965 34.99
1966 32.86
1967 32.61
1968 31.04
1969 28.62
1970 28.45
1971 28.17
1972 26.38
1973 24.19
1974 23.07
1975 25.90
1976 27.23
1977 26.97
1978 25.74
1979 24.73
1980 25.21
1981 25.68
1982 29.64
1983 31.64
1984 33.82
1985 36.81
1986 39.75
1987 39.93
1988 40.09
1989 40.33
1990 42.73
1991 45.57
1992 47.44
1993 48.97
1994 48.18
1995 48.22
1996 47.14
1997 44.73
1998 41.56
1999 38.31
2000 33.42
2001 32.58
2002 33.78
2003 35.33
2004 36.19
2005 36.40
2006 35.89
2007 35.84
2008 44.83
2009 54.67
2010 63.11
2011:Q2 65.51

Note: The data for debt through 2010 are as of year-end, and the corresponding values for GDP are for Q4 at an annual rate. The observation for 2011:Q2 is based on an estimate for debt in that quarter and GDP in the first quarter. Excludes securities held as investments of federal government accounts.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, flow of funds data.

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Figure 25. Change in Real Imports and Exports of Goods and Services, 2005-11

Percent, annual rate

Period Imports Exports
2005 5.17 6.68
2006 4.13 10.21
2007 0.66 10.10
2008 -5.97 -2.93
2009 -7.24 -0.07
2010:H1 21.83 10.24
2010:H2 1.05 7.68
2011:Q1 5.13 7.63

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 26. U.S. Trade and Current Account Balances, 2003-11

Percent of nominal GDP

Period Trade Current account
2003:Q1 -4.55 -4.94
2003:Q2 -4.47 -4.72
2003:Q3 -4.36 -4.60
2003:Q4 -4.37 -4.39
2004:Q1 -4.66 -4.69
2004:Q2 -5.09 -5.28
2004:Q3 -5.21 -5.30
2004:Q4 -5.55 -5.88
2005:Q1 -5.37 -5.63
2005:Q2 -5.48 -5.71
2005:Q3 -5.68 -5.80
2005:Q4 -6.05 -6.46
2006:Q1 -5.81 -6.00
2006:Q2 -5.72 -6.01
2006:Q3 -5.91 -6.37
2006:Q4 -5.23 -5.52
2007:Q1 -5.14 -5.73
2007:Q2 -5.12 -5.36
2007:Q3 -4.89 -4.78
2007:Q4 -4.83 -4.37
2008:Q1 -5.07 -4.95
2008:Q2 -5.13 -4.84
2008:Q3 -5.18 -4.79
2008:Q4 -4.07 -4.26
2009:Q1 -2.57 -2.71
2009:Q2 -2.29 -2.36
2009:Q3 -2.81 -2.77
2009:Q4 -2.93 -2.82
2010:Q1 -3.15 -3.28
2010:Q2 -3.64 -3.30
2010:Q3 -3.60 -3.26
2010:Q4 -3.14 -3.02
2011:Q1 -3.75 -3.18

Note: The data are quarterly and extend through 2011:Q1.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 27. Prices of Oil and Nonfuel Commodities, 2006-11

Period Oil (Dollars per barrel) Nonfuel commodities (December 2005 = 100)
January 2006 65.51 103.52
February 2006 61.63 106.71
March 2006 62.94 107.53
April 2006 69.69 113.66
May 2006 70.98 123.22
June 2006 70.96 119.84
July 2006 74.41 121.87
August 2006 73.05 121.80
September 2006 63.87 119.71
October 2006 58.88 122.83
November 2006 59.33 124.71
December 2006 62.02 126.71
January 2007 54.16 125.60
February 2007 59.26 128.68
March 2007 60.56 130.88
April 2007 63.96 136.15
May 2007 63.46 137.70
June 2007 67.48 137.20
July 2007 74.12 136.90
August 2007 72.39 132.13
September 2007 79.93 135.07
October 2007 85.93 136.90
November 2007 94.62 136.58
December 2007 91.70 136.77
January 2008 92.95 144.93
February 2008 95.35 154.92
March 2008 105.56 160.76
April 2008 112.57 159.82
May 2008 125.39 158.46
June 2008 133.93 160.80
July 2008 133.44 161.17
August 2008 116.70 150.95
September 2008 103.90 142.57
October 2008 76.66 120.71
November 2008 57.28 111.54
December 2008 41.02 105.09
January 2009 41.74 110.21
February 2009 39.16 107.87
March 2009 47.98 106.31
April 2009 49.79 111.10
May 2009 59.16 118.03
June 2009 69.68 122.73
July 2009 64.09 123.71
August 2009 71.06 130.45
September 2009 69.46 126.34
October 2009 75.82 128.72
November 2009 77.93 134.71
December 2009 74.43 139.60
January 2010 78.39 143.43
February 2010 76.42 141.09
March 2010 81.24 146.38
April 2010 84.48 155.30
May 2010 73.84 147.79
June 2010 75.35 142.16
July 2010 76.37 144.29
August 2010 76.72 153.10
September 2010 75.31 156.84
October 2010 81.90 165.31
November 2010 84.09 169.59
December 2010 89.22 179.09
January 2011 89.42 187.73
February 2011 89.58 194.77
March 2011 102.94 191.44
April 2011 110.04 195.96
May 2011 101.33 188.64
June 2011 96.29 185.22
July 2011 96.79 ND

Note: The data are monthly. The oil price is the spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, and the last observation is the average for July 1-8, 2011. The price of nonfuel commodities is an index of 45 primary-commodity prices and extends through June 2011.

Source: For oil, the Commodity Research Bureau; for nonfuel commodities, International Monetary Fund.

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Commodity Price Developments

Figure A. Real Commodity Prices, 1970-2011

2005:Q1 = 100

Period Food Metals Oil
1970:Q1 196.31 250.35 21.72
1970:Q2 200.26 227.45 21.50
1970:Q3 204.39 211.80 21.32
1970:Q4 210.07 195.60 21.05
1971:Q1 207.40 201.63 22.70
1971:Q2 204.48 195.74 25.88
1971:Q3 190.99 193.77 25.85
1971:Q4 190.56 196.49 25.59
1972:Q1 197.31 205.57 26.59
1972:Q2 199.58 191.41 26.60
1972:Q3 215.15 190.80 26.34
1972:Q4 258.72 187.32 26.09
1973:Q1 294.11 222.63 26.49
1973:Q2 388.65 242.25 27.47
1973:Q3 388.91 263.25 28.96
1973:Q4 408.72 306.26 28.50
1974:Q1 414.89 360.39 108.67
1974:Q2 361.15 329.20 89.99
1974:Q3 396.49 270.59 81.71
1974:Q4 393.97 247.90 81.86
1975:Q1 306.58 263.34 82.08
1975:Q2 273.70 245.47 81.20
1975:Q3 299.33 239.25 79.57
1975:Q4 260.56 229.99 86.10
1976:Q1 268.12 237.35 79.88
1976:Q2 278.48 248.43 78.51
1976:Q3 260.99 248.79 77.14
1976:Q4 246.32 237.44 78.27
1977:Q1 266.27 257.97 81.21
1977:Q2 243.98 234.42 79.94
1977:Q3 206.49 232.72 79.71
1977:Q4 234.64 237.80 78.69
1978:Q1 262.49 227.40 77.75
1978:Q2 257.42 227.11 75.70
1978:Q3 249.78 238.57 74.92
1978:Q4 255.95 242.97 77.64
1979:Q1 269.96 277.75 109.64
1979:Q2 280.03 276.72 159.94
1979:Q3 271.25 273.76 174.47
1979:Q4 271.48 283.96 202.16
1980:Q1 254.90 186.95 180.42
1980:Q2 260.50 159.18 175.31
1980:Q3 292.11 156.89 157.83
1980:Q4 281.17 137.95 184.04
1981:Q1 250.28 131.94 170.58
1981:Q2 239.53 119.19 150.63
1981:Q3 224.88 115.36 139.90
1981:Q4 213.46 110.29 144.85
1982:Q1 212.76 102.50 130.86
1982:Q2 207.55 90.83 135.52
1982:Q3 195.26 91.56 131.97
1982:Q4 190.04 91.17 129.62
1983:Q1 189.79 105.25 118.88
1983:Q2 188.89 111.87 118.80
1983:Q3 204.59 115.02 120.92
1983:Q4 190.91 108.79 114.40
1984:Q1 193.21 104.47 113.95
1984:Q2 192.76 95.13 113.22
1984:Q3 170.25 83.44 107.87
1984:Q4 164.01 85.21 104.44
1985:Q1 164.36 85.83 103.05
1985:Q2 163.49 83.67 100.58
1985:Q3 151.91 77.82 100.46
1985:Q4 159.71 77.33 103.09
1986:Q1 156.73 82.14 62.69
1986:Q2 154.23 83.42 45.70
1986:Q3 152.14 82.37 45.44
1986:Q4 148.91 79.63 53.11
1987:Q1 156.92 87.40 63.48
1987:Q2 167.80 93.25 65.24
1987:Q3 160.81 103.89 66.56
1987:Q4 167.18 121.21 61.87
1988:Q1 163.12 144.94 54.51
1988:Q2 181.34 180.02 55.08
1988:Q3 170.24 136.52 47.70
1988:Q4 161.43 156.28 44.10
1989:Q1 158.94 144.32 56.54
1989:Q2 146.44 121.84 60.40
1989:Q3 139.88 118.23 56.51
1989:Q4 139.91 105.48 60.23
1990:Q1 143.91 108.16 61.62
1990:Q2 147.39 105.95 49.63
1990:Q3 143.65 123.70 79.15
1990:Q4 141.29 96.34 94.14
1991:Q1 141.35 94.93 59.95
1991:Q2 128.33 85.55 55.11
1991:Q3 127.94 82.84 58.05
1991:Q4 126.50 78.58 58.95
1992:Q1 126.25 83.28 51.65
1992:Q2 124.70 84.30 57.69
1992:Q3 136.08 84.92 58.24
1992:Q4 121.16 77.41 54.78
1993:Q1 122.77 73.64 51.72
1993:Q2 123.72 69.81 51.37
1993:Q3 122.16 66.62 46.05
1993:Q4 123.91 65.74 42.25
1994:Q1 125.85 71.81 39.05
1994:Q2 124.76 79.51 45.56
1994:Q3 123.61 84.82 47.37
1994:Q4 123.13 99.38 45.92
1995:Q1 124.72 95.43 47.35
1995:Q2 128.37 95.31 49.58
1995:Q3 130.57 94.06 44.63
1995:Q4 130.04 91.46 45.89
1996:Q1 135.67 88.15 49.11
1996:Q2 140.84 80.43 51.80
1996:Q3 125.87 75.49 54.55
1996:Q4 122.33 78.95 60.50
1997:Q1 125.32 84.95 55.00
1997:Q2 118.94 83.94 48.13
1997:Q3 114.87 81.02 48.34
1997:Q4 111.23 72.79 48.56
1998:Q1 109.53 69.64 36.46
1998:Q2 109.76 64.72 34.08
1998:Q3 99.59 64.59 33.22
1998:Q4 96.06 59.97 30.15
1999:Q1 91.63 58.23 29.51
1999:Q2 87.28 61.20 40.33
1999:Q3 89.75 69.71 51.03
1999:Q4 87.43 71.47 58.99
2000:Q1 91.34 72.54 65.33
2000:Q2 91.79 68.85 65.19
2000:Q3 86.20 72.63 72.10
2000:Q4 86.65 68.58 71.08
2001:Q1 85.84 65.12 61.85
2001:Q2 85.70 62.66 62.97
2001:Q3 85.51 56.63 59.24
2001:Q4 81.09 57.29 45.43
2002:Q1 82.51 60.41 49.04
2002:Q2 85.70 59.50 58.60
2002:Q3 91.58 56.16 62.30
2002:Q4 90.31 58.89 61.45
2003:Q1 88.25 60.49 71.30
2003:Q2 87.90 61.85 60.36
2003:Q3 89.21 63.53 64.19
2003:Q4 95.83 73.91 66.16
2004:Q1 107.35 84.07 71.77
2004:Q2 104.63 81.54 78.98
2004:Q3 94.66 83.47 89.29
2004:Q4 92.73 88.05 93.07
2005:Q1 100.00 100.00 100.00
2005:Q2 97.19 95.99 109.33
2005:Q3 94.82 97.95 127.14
2005:Q4 94.30 112.35 118.77
2006:Q1 98.58 125.75 127.41
2006:Q2 107.22 147.44 141.42
2006:Q3 99.34 157.70 140.98
2006:Q4 105.71 168.56 121.53
2007:Q1 108.28 173.28 116.63
2007:Q2 112.27 183.90 133.25
2007:Q3 120.90 161.89 147.31
2007:Q4 129.13 148.74 173.36
2008:Q1 150.89 181.88 186.75
2008:Q2 155.12 166.30 233.83
2008:Q3 130.81 144.19 219.41
2008:Q4 104.00 96.69 109.08
2009:Q1 110.07 95.47 86.48
2009:Q2 124.64 117.85 115.20
2009:Q3 113.18 134.96 131.62
2009:Q4 119.52 156.63 144.68
2010:Q1 118.91 175.75 147.16
2010:Q2 116.72 161.75 149.45
2010:Q3 133.04 178.23 143.90
2010:Q4 149.33 204.48 161.75
2011:Q1 153.99 211.00 186.25

Note: The data are quarterly and extend through 2011:Q1.

Source: International Monetary Fund price indexes deflated by U.S. consumer price index.

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Figure B. Global GDP Growth, 1970-2010

Percent

Period Emerging market economies World
1970:Q1-2002:Q4 average 5.38 3.71
1971:Q2 6.32 3.98
1971:Q3 5.61 3.84
1971:Q4 5.30 4.18
1972:Q1 4.89 4.51
1972:Q2 4.94 5.06
1972:Q3 5.84 5.25
1972:Q4 7.54 6.63
1973:Q1 8.52 7.72
1973:Q2 8.82 7.16
1973:Q3 8.92 6.53
1973:Q4 7.30 5.62
1974:Q1 6.71 3.07
1974:Q2 6.29 2.53
1974:Q3 5.80 2.21
1974:Q4 5.90 0.71
1975:Q1 5.83 0.52
1975:Q2 5.80 0.67
1975:Q3 5.20 1.27
1975:Q4 4.95 2.79
1976:Q1 4.42 4.57
1976:Q2 4.44 4.83
1976:Q3 5.03 4.80
1976:Q4 5.63 4.82
1977:Q1 6.60 4.44
1977:Q2 7.30 4.57
1977:Q3 7.29 4.68
1977:Q4 7.82 4.63
1978:Q1 6.88 4.21
1978:Q2 5.63 4.83
1978:Q3 4.89 4.55
1978:Q4 4.13 4.73
1979:Q1 4.15 4.60
1979:Q2 4.51 3.93
1979:Q3 5.72 4.03
1979:Q4 6.55 3.80
1980:Q1 7.43 4.10
1980:Q2 7.54 2.39
1980:Q3 6.98 2.12
1980:Q4 5.82 2.05
1981:Q1 4.97 2.16
1981:Q2 3.90 2.77
1981:Q3 2.41 2.63
1981:Q4 1.60 1.39
1982:Q1 1.35 0.34
1982:Q2 1.78 0.75
1982:Q3 2.72 0.41
1982:Q4 2.89 0.84
1983:Q1 2.66 1.64
1983:Q2 3.27 2.45
1983:Q3 3.45 3.63
1983:Q4 4.53 4.87
1984:Q1 5.65 5.59
1984:Q2 5.51 5.18
1984:Q3 6.00 5.06
1984:Q4 5.42 4.33
1985:Q1 5.07 3.89
1985:Q2 4.76 4.04
1985:Q3 4.67 4.19
1985:Q4 5.45 4.48
1986:Q1 5.39 4.16
1986:Q2 6.18 4.13
1986:Q3 6.30 3.82
1986:Q4 5.51 3.42
1987:Q1 5.79 3.28
1987:Q2 6.26 3.96
1987:Q3 6.18 4.25
1987:Q4 7.25 5.36
1988:Q1 8.02 6.19
1988:Q2 7.18 5.48
1988:Q3 6.66 5.24
1988:Q4 5.92 4.68
1989:Q1 4.45 4.37
1989:Q2 4.15 4.06
1989:Q3 4.33 3.87
1989:Q4 4.73 3.86
1990:Q1 4.21 3.48
1990:Q2 3.15 3.35
1990:Q3 4.42 3.50
1990:Q4 3.66 2.43
1991:Q1 3.95 2.90
1991:Q2 6.43 3.46
1991:Q3 5.92 3.14
1991:Q4 6.88 4.02
1992:Q1 7.82 3.86
1992:Q2 7.51 3.68
1992:Q3 7.32 3.82
1992:Q4 6.39 3.32
1993:Q1 6.46 2.97
1993:Q2 6.13 2.89
1993:Q3 5.95 2.80
1993:Q4 5.21 2.92
1994:Q1 5.12 3.38
1994:Q2 5.09 3.83
1994:Q3 4.88 4.09
1994:Q4 6.96 4.77
1995:Q1 6.44 4.30
1995:Q2 5.58 3.67
1995:Q3 5.53 3.58
1995:Q4 5.08 3.21
1996:Q1 5.30 3.37
1996:Q2 5.87 3.99
1996:Q3 5.98 4.01
1996:Q4 6.58 4.52
1997:Q1 6.14 4.41
1997:Q2 5.87 4.29
1997:Q3 5.68 4.30
1997:Q4 5.21 4.10
1998:Q1 3.15 3.17
1998:Q2 2.23 2.48
1998:Q3 1.35 2.21
1998:Q4 0.79 2.07
1999:Q1 3.23 3.17
1999:Q2 4.38 3.75
1999:Q3 5.45 4.24
1999:Q4 6.48 4.92
2000:Q1 7.17 5.33
2000:Q2 6.66 5.47
2000:Q3 6.82 5.07
2000:Q4 5.78 4.19
2001:Q1 4.26 3.21
2001:Q2 4.49 2.69
2001:Q3 3.76 2.12
2001:Q4 3.79 1.89
2002:Q1 4.25 2.27
2002:Q2 4.65 2.63
2002:Q3 5.16 3.26
2002:Q4 5.28 3.27
2003:Q1-2007:Q4 average 8.00 4.85
2003:Q1 5.92 3.32
2003:Q2 5.55 3.13
2003:Q3 6.70 3.96
2003:Q4 7.97 4.95
2004:Q1 7.69 5.16
2004:Q2 7.94 5.28
2004:Q3 7.47 4.79
2004:Q4 7.00 4.38
2005:Q1 7.34 4.47
2005:Q2 7.50 4.62
2005:Q3 7.46 4.69
2005:Q4 7.87 4.88
2006:Q1 8.77 5.43
2006:Q2 8.97 5.54
2006:Q3 8.90 5.27
2006:Q4 8.92 5.43
2007:Q1 9.24 5.36
2007:Q2 9.62 5.48
2007:Q3 9.58 5.56
2007:Q4 9.57 5.42
2008:Q1 8.55 4.76
2008:Q2 7.81 3.99
2008:Q3 6.79 2.81
2008:Q4 3.49 -0.01
2009:Q1 1.34 -2.28
2009:Q2 1.93 -1.86
2009:Q3 3.59 -0.58
2009:Q4 6.36 2.18
2010:Q1 8.81 4.99
2010:Q2 8.53 5.20
2010:Q3 7.53 4.97
2010:Q4 7.36 4.60

Note: The data are quarterly and extend through 2010:Q4. The data for emerging market economies and for world are aggregated using GDP at purchasing-power-parity weights. The world aggregate consists of 36 countries that, together, represent about 85 percent of world GDP measured on a purchasing-power-parity basis.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

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Figure C. Consumption Growth, 2000-10

Series: United States, U.S. ethanol, China, other emerging market economies, advanced foreign economies, world

Horizon: 2000 to 2010

Description: Data are plotted as stacked bars; world is represented as a dot. There are seven categories on the horizontal axis (in order, from left to right): corn, wheat, soy, aluminum, zinc, copper, and oil. Units are percentage points.

For corn, world is about 38, other emerging market economies is about 30, China is about 7, U.S. ethanol is about 18, United States is about negative 3, and advanced foreign economies is about negative 14.

For wheat, world is about 13, other emerging market economies is about 12, advanced foreign economies is about 2, and United States is about negative 1.

For soy, world is about 49, other emerging market economies is about 28, China is about 24, and advanced foreign economies is about negative 3.

For aluminum, world is about 42, other emerging market economies is about 13, China is about 36, advanced foreign economies is about 1, and United States is about negative 8.

For zinc, world is about 40, other emerging market economies is about 6, China is about 44, United States is about negative 5, and advanced foreign economies is about negative 7.

For copper, world is about 26, other emerging market economies is about 7, China is about 36, United States is about negative 8, and advanced foreign economies is about negative 9.

For oil, world is about 14, other emerging market economies is about 11, China is about 6, United States is about negative 1, and advanced foreign economies is about negative 2.

Source: Department of Agriculture, World Bureau of Metals Statistics; International Energy Agency.

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Figure D. Growth in World Oil Supply, 2000-10

Million barrels per day

  OPEC OECD Non-OECD, Non-OPEC World
Forecast made in 2002 9.85 1.08 6.72 17.65
Actual 4.61 -2.07 6.83 9.37

Note: OECD is the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Source: Department of Energy.

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Figure 28. Net Saving, 1991-2011

Percent of nominal GDP

Period Nonfederal saving Federal saving Total
1991:Q1 7.51 -2.68 4.84
1991:Q2 7.35 -3.64 3.71
1991:Q3 7.20 -3.99 3.21
1991:Q4 7.67 -4.25 3.42
1992:Q1 8.10 -4.78 3.32
1992:Q2 8.25 -4.80 3.45
1992:Q3 7.44 -4.90 2.54
1992:Q4 7.17 -4.60 2.57
1993:Q1 7.45 -4.77 2.69
1993:Q2 7.05 -4.16 2.89
1993:Q3 6.62 -4.22 2.40
1993:Q4 6.53 -3.69 2.84
1994:Q1 6.97 -3.42 3.55
1994:Q2 6.81 -2.88 3.93
1994:Q3 6.98 -3.09 3.89
1994:Q4 7.23 -3.06 4.17
1995:Q1 7.76 -3.03 4.73
1995:Q2 7.25 -2.80 4.45
1995:Q3 7.49 -2.82 4.67
1995:Q4 7.48 -2.48 5.00
1996:Q1 7.62 -2.54 5.08
1996:Q2 7.29 -1.92 5.37
1996:Q3 7.41 -1.75 5.65
1996:Q4 7.30 -1.38 5.92
1997:Q1 7.39 -1.14 6.25
1997:Q2 7.66 -0.86 6.80
1997:Q3 7.44 -0.42 7.02
1997:Q4 7.37 -0.49 6.89
1998:Q1 7.36 0.09 7.45
1998:Q2 6.99 0.24 7.23
1998:Q3 6.80 0.59 7.39
1998:Q4 6.18 0.59 6.77
1999:Q1 6.60 0.86 7.47
1999:Q2 5.59 1.04 6.62
1999:Q3 4.96 1.10 6.06
1999:Q4 4.91 1.21 6.13
2000:Q1 4.85 2.11 6.96
2000:Q2 4.61 1.76 6.37
2000:Q3 4.43 1.81 6.24
2000:Q4 3.46 1.77 5.22
2001:Q1 4.03 1.57 5.60
2001:Q2 3.74 1.16 4.89
2001:Q3 4.87 -1.01 3.85
2001:Q4 2.89 -0.12 2.77
2002:Q1 4.95 -1.96 2.99
2002:Q2 5.00 -2.36 2.65
2002:Q3 4.41 -2.46 1.95
2002:Q4 4.76 -2.72 2.04
2003:Q1 4.24 -2.76 1.48
2003:Q2 5.18 -3.41 1.78
2003:Q3 5.53 -4.01 1.52
2003:Q4 5.65 -3.32 2.34
2004:Q1 5.70 -3.53 2.17
2004:Q2 5.76 -3.26 2.50
2004:Q3 5.88 -3.03 2.85
2004:Q4 5.28 -2.98 2.29
2005:Q1 5.14 -2.33 2.80
2005:Q2 5.04 -2.30 2.73
2005:Q3 4.92 -2.26 2.67
2005:Q4 5.31 -2.07 3.24
2006:Q1 5.60 -1.57 4.03
2006:Q2 5.55 -1.72 3.83
2006:Q3 5.21 -1.60 3.61
2006:Q4 5.07 -1.20 3.87
2007:Q1 3.85 -1.46 2.38
2007:Q2 3.77 -1.69 2.07
2007:Q3 3.25 -1.87 1.38
2007:Q4 3.13 -1.94 1.20
2008:Q1 3.26 -2.63 0.63
2008:Q2 4.75 -5.26 -0.51
2008:Q3 3.94 -4.46 -0.52
2008:Q4 3.41 -4.79 -1.39
2009:Q1 5.23 -7.14 -1.91
2009:Q2 7.09 -9.52 -2.43
2009:Q3 6.71 -9.61 -2.91
2009:Q4 7.15 -9.18 -2.03
2010:Q1 7.50 -9.10 -1.60
2010:Q2 8.23 -9.17 -0.94
2010:Q3 8.16 -9.11 -0.95
2010:Q4 7.82 -9.01 -1.19
2011:Q1 7.45 -8.60 -1.15

Note: The data are quarterly and extend through 2011:Q1. Nonfederal saving is the sum of personal and net business saving and the net saving of state and local governments. GDP is gross domestic product.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Return to text

Figure 29. Net Change in Private Payroll Employment, 2005-11

Thousands of jobs

Period Monthly change 3-month moving average
January 2005 94.00 84.33
February 2005 231.00 152.00
March 2005 146.00 157.00
April 2005 346.00 241.00
May 2005 142.00 211.33
June 2005 264.00 250.67
July 2005 275.00 227.00
August 2005 189.00 242.67
September 2005 81.00 181.67
October 2005 100.00 123.33
November 2005 304.00 161.67
December 2005 138.00 180.67
January 2006 313.00 251.67
February 2006 286.00 245.67
March 2006 262.00 287.00
April 2006 166.00 238.00
May 2006 4.00 144.00
June 2006 84.00 84.67
July 2006 151.00 79.67
August 2006 147.00 127.33
September 2006 85.00 127.67
October 2006 6.00 79.33
November 2006 190.00 93.67
December 2006 175.00 123.67
January 2007 190.00 185.00
February 2007 58.00 141.00
March 2007 200.00 149.33
April 2007 57.00 105.00
May 2007 111.00 122.67
June 2007 50.00 72.67
July 2007 17.00 59.33
August 2007 -95.00 -9.33
September 2007 5.00 -24.33
October 2007 74.00 -5.33
November 2007 98.00 59.00
December 2007 38.00 70.00
January 2008 4.00 46.67
February 2008 -128.00 -28.67
March 2008 -87.00 -70.33
April 2008 -186.00 -133.67
May 2008 -240.00 -171.00
June 2008 -217.00 -214.33
July 2008 -265.00 -240.67
August 2008 -317.00 -266.33
September 2008 -434.00 -338.67
October 2008 -491.00 -414.00
November 2008 -787.00 -570.67
December 2008 -636.00 -638.00
January 2009 -841.00 -754.67
February 2009 -721.00 -732.67
March 2009 -787.00 -783.00
April 2009 -773.00 -760.33
May 2009 -326.00 -628.67
June 2009 -438.00 -512.33
July 2009 -287.00 -350.33
August 2009 -215.00 -313.33
September 2009 -213.00 -238.33
October 2009 -250.00 -226.00
November 2009 -34.00 -165.67
December 2009 -102.00 -128.67
January 2010 -42.00 -59.33
February 2010 -21.00 -55.00
March 2010 144.00 27.00
April 2010 229.00 117.33
May 2010 48.00 140.33
June 2010 65.00 114.00
July 2010 93.00 68.67
August 2010 110.00 89.33
September 2010 109.00 104.00
October 2010 143.00 120.67
November 2010 128.00 126.67
December 2010 167.00 146.00
January 2011 105.67 129.67
February 2011 261.00 174.00
March 2011 219.00 191.33
April 2011 241.00 240.33
May 2011 73.00 177.67
June 2011 57.00 123.67

Note: The data are monthly and extend through June 2011.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Return to text

Figure 30. Civilian Unemployment Rate, 1981-2011

Period Percent
January 1981 7.5
February 1981 7.4
March 1981 7.4
April 1981 7.2
May 1981 7.5
June 1981 7.5
July 1981 7.2
August 1981 7.4
September 1981 7.6
October 1981 7.9
November 1981 8.3
December 1981 8.5
January 1982 8.6
February 1982 8.9
March 1982 9.0
April 1982 9.3
May 1982 9.4
June 1982 9.6
July 1982 9.8
August 1982 9.8
September 1982 10.1
October 1982 10.4
November 1982 10.8
December 1982 10.8
January 1983 10.4
February 1983 10.4
March 1983 10.3
April 1983 10.2
May 1983 10.1
June 1983 10.1
July 1983 9.4
August 1983 9.5
September 1983 9.2
October 1983 8.8
November 1983 8.5
December 1983 8.3
January 1984 8.0
February 1984 7.8
March 1984 7.8
April 1984 7.7
May 1984 7.4
June 1984 7.2
July 1984 7.5
August 1984 7.5
September 1984 7.3
October 1984 7.4
November 1984 7.2
December 1984 7.3
January 1985 7.3
February 1985 7.2
March 1985 7.2
April 1985 7.3
May 1985 7.2
June 1985 7.4
July 1985 7.4
August 1985 7.1
September 1985 7.1
October 1985 7.1
November 1985 7.0
December 1985 7.0
January 1986 6.7
February 1986 7.2
March 1986 7.2
April 1986 7.1
May 1986 7.2
June 1986 7.2
July 1986 7.0
August 1986 6.9
September 1986 7.0
October 1986 7.0
November 1986 6.9
December 1986 6.6
January 1987 6.6
February 1987 6.6
March 1987 6.6
April 1987 6.3
May 1987 6.3
June 1987 6.2
July 1987 6.1
August 1987 6.0
September 1987 5.9
October 1987 6.0
November 1987 5.8
December 1987 5.7
January 1988 5.7
February 1988 5.7
March 1988 5.7
April 1988 5.4
May 1988 5.6
June 1988 5.4
July 1988 5.4
August 1988 5.6
September 1988 5.4
October 1988 5.4
November 1988 5.3
December 1988 5.3
January 1989 5.4
February 1989 5.2
March 1989 5.0
April 1989 5.2
May 1989 5.2
June 1989 5.3
July 1989 5.2
August 1989 5.2
September 1989 5.3
October 1989 5.3
November 1989 5.4
December 1989 5.4
January 1990 5.4
February 1990 5.3
March 1990 5.2
April 1990 5.4
May 1990 5.4
June 1990 5.2
July 1990 5.5
August 1990 5.7
September 1990 5.9
October 1990 5.9
November 1990 6.2
December 1990 6.3
January 1991 6.4
February 1991 6.6
March 1991 6.8
April 1991 6.7
May 1991 6.9
June 1991 6.9
July 1991 6.8
August 1991 6.9
September 1991 6.9
October 1991 7.0
November 1991 7.0
December 1991 7.3
January 1992 7.3
February 1992 7.4
March 1992 7.4
April 1992 7.4
May 1992 7.6
June 1992 7.8
July 1992 7.7
August 1992 7.6
September 1992 7.6
October 1992 7.3
November 1992 7.4
December 1992 7.4
January 1993 7.3
February 1993 7.1
March 1993 7.0
April 1993 7.1
May 1993 7.1
June 1993 7.0
July 1993 6.9
August 1993 6.8
September 1993 6.7
October 1993 6.8
November 1993 6.6
December 1993 6.5
January 1994 6.6
February 1994 6.6
March 1994 6.5
April 1994 6.4
May 1994 6.1
June 1994 6.1
July 1994 6.1
August 1994 6.0
September 1994 5.9
October 1994 5.8
November 1994 5.6
December 1994 5.5
January 1995 5.6
February 1995 5.4
March 1995 5.4
April 1995 5.8
May 1995 5.6
June 1995 5.6
July 1995 5.7
August 1995 5.7
September 1995 5.6
October 1995 5.5
November 1995 5.6
December 1995 5.6
January 1996 5.6
February 1996 5.5
March 1996 5.5
April 1996 5.6
May 1996 5.6
June 1996 5.3
July 1996 5.5
August 1996 5.1
September 1996 5.2
October 1996 5.2
November 1996 5.4
December 1996 5.4
January 1997 5.3
February 1997 5.2
March 1997 5.2
April 1997 5.1
May 1997 4.9
June 1997 5.0
July 1997 4.9
August 1997 4.8
September 1997 4.9
October 1997 4.7
November 1997 4.6
December 1997 4.7
January 1998 4.6
February 1998 4.6
March 1998 4.7
April 1998 4.3
May 1998 4.4
June 1998 4.5
July 1998 4.5
August 1998 4.5
September 1998 4.6
October 1998 4.5
November 1998 4.4
December 1998 4.4
January 1999 4.3
February 1999 4.4
March 1999 4.2
April 1999 4.3
May 1999 4.2
June 1999 4.3
July 1999 4.3
August 1999 4.2
September 1999 4.2
October 1999 4.1
November 1999 4.1
December 1999 4.0
January 2000 4.0
February 2000 4.1
March 2000 4.0
April 2000 3.8
May 2000 4.0
June 2000 4.0
July 2000 4.0
August 2000 4.1
September 2000 3.9
October 2000 3.9
November 2000 3.9
December 2000 3.9
January 2001 4.2
February 2001 4.2
March 2001 4.3
April 2001 4.4
May 2001 4.3
June 2001 4.5
July 2001 4.6
August 2001 4.9
September 2001 5.0
October 2001 5.3
November 2001 5.5
December 2001 5.7
January 2002 5.7
February 2002 5.7
March 2002 5.7
April 2002 5.9
May 2002 5.8
June 2002 5.8
July 2002 5.8
August 2002 5.7
September 2002 5.7
October 2002 5.7
November 2002 5.9
December 2002 6.0
January 2003 5.8
February 2003 5.9
March 2003 5.9
April 2003 6.0
May 2003 6.1
June 2003 6.3
July 2003 6.2
August 2003 6.1
September 2003 6.1
October 2003 6.0
November 2003 5.8
December 2003 5.7
January 2004 5.7
February 2004 5.6
March 2004 5.8
April 2004 5.6
May 2004 5.6
June 2004 5.6
July 2004 5.5
August 2004 5.4
September 2004 5.4
October 2004 5.5
November 2004 5.4
December 2004 5.4
January 2005 5.3
February 2005 5.4
March 2005 5.2
April 2005 5.2
May 2005 5.1
June 2005 5.0
July 2005 5.0
August 2005 4.9
September 2005 5.0
October 2005 5.0
November 2005 5.0
December 2005 4.9
January 2006 4.7
February 2006 4.8
March 2006 4.7
April 2006 4.7
May 2006 4.6
June 2006 4.6
July 2006 4.7
August 2006 4.7
September 2006 4.5
October 2006 4.4
November 2006 4.5
December 2006 4.4
January 2007 4.6
February 2007 4.5
March 2007 4.4
April 2007 4.5
May 2007 4.4
June 2007 4.6
July 2007 4.7
August 2007 4.6
September 2007 4.7
October 2007 4.7
November 2007 4.7
December 2007 5.0
January 2008 5.0
February 2008 4.8
March 2008 5.1
April 2008 4.9
May 2008 5.4
June 2008 5.6
July 2008 5.8
August 2008 6.1
September 2008 6.2
October 2008 6.6
November 2008 6.8
December 2008 7.3
January 2009 7.8
February 2009 8.2
March 2009 8.6
April 2009 8.9
May 2009 9.4
June 2009 9.5
July 2009 9.5
August 2009 9.7
September 2009 9.8
October 2009 10.1
November 2009 9.9
December 2009 9.9
January 2010 9.7
February 2010 9.7
March 2010 9.7
April 2010 9.8
May 2010 9.6
June 2010 9.5
July 2010 9.5
August 2010 9.6
September 2010 9.6
October 2010 9.7
November 2010 9.8
December 2010 9.4
January 2011 9.0
February 2011 8.9
March 2011 8.8
April 2011 9.0
May 2011 9.1
June 2011 9.2

Note: The data are monthly and extend through June 2011.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Return to text

Figure 31. Labor Force Participation Rate, 1981-2011

Period Percent
January 1981 63.9
February 1981 63.9
March 1981 64.1
April 1981 64.2
May 1981 64.3
June 1981 63.7
July 1981 63.8
August 1981 63.8
September 1981 63.5
October 1981 63.8
November 1981 63.9
December 1981 63.6
January 1982 63.7
February 1982 63.8
March 1982 63.8
April 1982 63.9
May 1982 64.2
June 1982 63.9
July 1982 64.0
August 1982 64.1
September 1982 64.1
October 1982 64.1
November 1982 64.2
December 1982 64.1
January 1983 63.9
February 1983 63.8
March 1983 63.7
April 1983 63.8
May 1983 63.7
June 1983 64.3
July 1983 64.1
August 1983 64.3
September 1983 64.3
October 1983 64.0
November 1983 64.1
December 1983 64.1
January 1984 63.9
February 1984 64.1
March 1984 64.1
April 1984 64.3
May 1984 64.5
June 1984 64.6
July 1984 64.6
August 1984 64.4
September 1984 64.4
October 1984 64.4
November 1984 64.5
December 1984 64.6
January 1985 64.7
February 1985 64.7
March 1985 64.9
April 1985 64.9
May 1985 64.8
June 1985 64.6
July 1985 64.7
August 1985 64.6
September 1985 64.9
October 1985 65.0
November 1985 64.9
December 1985 65.0
January 1986 64.9
February 1986 65.0
March 1986 65.1
April 1986 65.1
May 1986 65.2
June 1986 65.4
July 1986 65.4
August 1986 65.3
September 1986 65.4
October 1986 65.4
November 1986 65.4
December 1986 65.3
January 1987 65.4
February 1987 65.5
March 1987 65.5
April 1987 65.4
May 1987 65.7
June 1987 65.5
July 1987 65.6
August 1987 65.7
September 1987 65.5
October 1987 65.7
November 1987 65.7
December 1987 65.7
January 1988 65.8
February 1988 65.9
March 1988 65.7
April 1988 65.8
May 1988 65.7
June 1988 65.8
July 1988 65.9
August 1988 66.1
September 1988 65.9
October 1988 66.0
November 1988 66.2
December 1988 66.1
January 1989 66.5
February 1989 66.3
March 1989 66.3
April 1989 66.4
May 1989 66.3
June 1989 66.5
July 1989 66.5
August 1989 66.5
September 1989 66.4
October 1989 66.5
November 1989 66.6
December 1989 66.5
January 1990 66.8
February 1990 66.7
March 1990 66.7
April 1990 66.6
May 1990 66.6
June 1990 66.4
July 1990 66.5
August 1990 66.5
September 1990 66.4
October 1990 66.4
November 1990 66.4
December 1990 66.4
January 1991 66.2
February 1991 66.2
March 1991 66.3
April 1991 66.4
May 1991 66.2
June 1991 66.2
July 1991 66.1
August 1991 66.0
September 1991 66.2
October 1991 66.1
November 1991 66.1
December 1991 66.0
January 1992 66.3
February 1992 66.2
March 1992 66.4
April 1992 66.5
May 1992 66.6
June 1992 66.7
July 1992 66.7
August 1992 66.6
September 1992 66.5
October 1992 66.2
November 1992 66.3
December 1992 66.3
January 1993 66.2
February 1993 66.2
March 1993 66.2
April 1993 66.1
May 1993 66.4
June 1993 66.5
July 1993 66.4
August 1993 66.4
September 1993 66.2
October 1993 66.3
November 1993 66.3
December 1993 66.4
January 1994 66.6
February 1994 66.6
March 1994 66.5
April 1994 66.5
May 1994 66.6
June 1994 66.4
July 1994 66.4
August 1994 66.6
September 1994 66.6
October 1994 66.7
November 1994 66.7
December 1994 66.7
January 1995 66.8
February 1995 66.8
March 1995 66.7
April 1995 66.9
May 1995 66.5
June 1995 66.5
July 1995 66.6
August 1995 66.6
September 1995 66.6
October 1995 66.6
November 1995 66.5
December 1995 66.4
January 1996 66.4
February 1996 66.6
March 1996 66.6
April 1996 66.7
May 1996 66.7
June 1996 66.7
July 1996 66.9
August 1996 66.7
September 1996 66.9
October 1996 67.0
November 1996 67.0
December 1996 67.0
January 1997 67.0
February 1997 66.9
March 1997 67.1
April 1997 67.1
May 1997 67.1
June 1997 67.1
July 1997 67.2
August 1997 67.2
September 1997 67.1
October 1997 67.1
November 1997 67.2
December 1997 67.2
January 1998 67.1
February 1998 67.1
March 1998 67.1
April 1998 67.0
May 1998 67.0
June 1998 67.0
July 1998 67.0
August 1998 67.0
September 1998 67.2
October 1998 67.2
November 1998 67.1
December 1998 67.2
January 1999 67.2
February 1999 67.2
March 1999 67.0
April 1999 67.1
May 1999 67.1
June 1999 67.1
July 1999 67.1
August 1999 67.0
September 1999 67.0
October 1999 67.0
November 1999 67.1
December 1999 67.1
January 2000 67.3
February 2000 67.3
March 2000 67.3
April 2000 67.3
May 2000 67.1
June 2000 67.1
July 2000 66.9
August 2000 66.9
September 2000 66.9
October 2000 66.8
November 2000 66.9
December 2000 67.0
January 2001 67.2
February 2001 67.1
March 2001 67.2
April 2001 66.9
May 2001 66.7
June 2001 66.7
July 2001 66.8
August 2001 66.5
September 2001 66.8
October 2001 66.7
November 2001 66.7
December 2001 66.7
January 2002 66.5
February 2002 66.8
March 2002 66.6
April 2002 66.7
May 2002 66.7
June 2002 66.6
July 2002 66.5
August 2002 66.6
September 2002 66.7
October 2002 66.6
November 2002 66.4
December 2002 66.3
January 2003 66.4
February 2003 66.4
March 2003 66.3
April 2003 66.4
May 2003 66.4
June 2003 66.5
July 2003 66.2
August 2003 66.1
September 2003 66.1
October 2003 66.1
November 2003 66.1
December 2003 65.9
January 2004 66.1
February 2004 66.0
March 2004 66.0
April 2004 65.9
May 2004 66.0
June 2004 66.1
July 2004 66.1
August 2004 66.0
September 2004 65.8
October 2004 65.9
November 2004 66.0
December 2004 65.9
January 2005 65.8
February 2005 65.9
March 2005 65.9
April 2005 66.1
May 2005 66.1
June 2005 66.1
July 2005 66.1
August 2005 66.2
September 2005 66.1
October 2005 66.1
November 2005 66.0
December 2005 66.0
January 2006 66.0
February 2006 66.1
March 2006 66.2
April 2006 66.1
May 2006 66.1
June 2006 66.2
July 2006 66.1
August 2006 66.2
September 2006 66.1
October 2006 66.2
November 2006 66.3
December 2006 66.4
January 2007 66.4
February 2007 66.3
March 2007 66.2
April 2007 65.9
May 2007 66.0
June 2007 66.0
July 2007 66.0
August 2007 65.8
September 2007 66.0
October 2007 65.8
November 2007 66.0
December 2007 66.0
January 2008 66.2
February 2008 66.0
March 2008 66.1
April 2008 65.9
May 2008 66.1
June 2008 66.1
July 2008 66.0
August 2008 66.1
September 2008 66.0
October 2008 66.0
November 2008 65.8
December 2008 65.8
January 2009 65.7
February 2009 65.7
March 2009 65.6
April 2009 65.6
May 2009 65.7
June 2009 65.7
July 2009 65.5
August 2009 65.4
September 2009 65.1
October 2009 65.1
November 2009 65.0
December 2009 64.7
January 2010 64.8
February 2010 64.8
March 2010 64.9
April 2010 65.1
May 2010 64.9
June 2010 64.7
July 2010 64.6
August 2010 64.7
September 2010 64.7
October 2010 64.5
November 2010 64.5
December 2010 64.3
January 2011 64.2
February 2011 64.2
March 2011 64.2
April 2011 64.2
May 2011 64.2
June 2011 64.1

Note: The data are monthly and extend through June 2011.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Return to text

Long-Term Unemployment

Figure A. Unemployed and Long-Term Unemployed, 1970-2011

Percent of labor force

Period Long-term unemployed Unemployed
January 1970 0.17 1.66
February 1970 0.20 1.85
March 1970 0.22 2.02
April 1970 0.24 2.06
May 1970 0.28 2.22
June 1970 0.27 2.36
July 1970 0.28 2.40
August 1970 0.30 2.48
September 1970 0.34 2.70
October 1970 0.31 2.69
November 1970 0.40 3.09
December 1970 0.46 3.21
January 1971 0.51 3.27
February 1971 0.54 3.23
March 1971 0.54 3.27
April 1971 0.54 3.24
May 1971 0.60 3.26
June 1971 0.65 3.31
July 1971 0.67 3.32
August 1971 0.65 3.34
September 1971 0.66 3.31
October 1971 0.70 3.32
November 1971 0.68 3.40
December 1971 0.68 3.27
January 1972 0.69 3.19
February 1972 0.76 3.21
March 1972 0.73 3.06
April 1972 0.78 3.12
May 1972 0.67 3.11
June 1972 0.63 3.02
July 1972 0.60 3.06
August 1972 0.61 3.08
September 1972 0.63 2.88
October 1972 0.60 2.97
November 1972 0.54 2.77
December 1972 0.52 2.80
January 1973 0.47 2.62
February 1973 0.42 2.44
March 1973 0.44 2.51
April 1973 0.38 2.56
May 1973 0.39 2.40
June 1973 0.36 2.26
July 1973 0.31 2.31
August 1973 0.37 2.29
September 1973 0.33 2.37
October 1973 0.37 2.35
November 1973 0.39 2.30
December 1973 0.36 2.29
January 1974 0.36 2.42
February 1974 0.37 2.46
March 1974 0.36 2.46
April 1974 0.39 2.57
May 1974 0.39 2.50
June 1974 0.40 2.66
July 1974 0.42 2.74
August 1974 0.42 2.65
September 1974 0.42 2.92
October 1974 0.43 3.07
November 1974 0.46 3.28
December 1974 0.58 3.75
January 1975 0.67 4.51
February 1975 0.77 4.80
March 1975 0.83 5.05
April 1975 1.03 5.53
May 1975 1.16 5.68
June 1975 1.39 5.74
July 1975 1.49 5.54
August 1975 1.56 5.56
September 1975 1.70 5.59
October 1975 1.54 5.39
November 1975 1.75 5.45
December 1975 1.68 5.36
January 1976 1.67 5.13
February 1976 1.61 4.74
March 1976 1.53 4.66
April 1976 1.47 4.41
May 1976 1.27 4.34
June 1976 1.41 4.81
July 1976 1.29 4.66
August 1976 1.32 4.86
September 1976 1.25 4.79
October 1976 1.27 4.73
November 1976 1.31 4.94
December 1976 1.37 4.81
January 1977 1.25 4.53
February 1977 1.23 4.51
March 1977 1.19 4.35
April 1977 1.14 4.00
May 1977 1.08 4.15
June 1977 1.04 4.03
July 1977 0.98 4.01
August 1977 0.90 4.07
September 1977 0.94 4.00
October 1977 0.91 3.92
November 1977 0.89 3.86
December 1977 0.85 3.64
January 1978 0.81 3.60
February 1978 0.66 3.50
March 1978 0.71 3.46
April 1978 0.67 3.34
May 1978 0.68 3.19
June 1978 0.63 3.22
July 1978 0.64 3.16
August 1978 0.60 3.13
September 1978 0.61 3.11
October 1978 0.58 3.06
November 1978 0.51 3.02
December 1978 0.49 3.15
January 1979 0.51 3.13
February 1979 0.53 3.12
March 1979 0.57 3.16
April 1979 0.53 3.05
May 1979 0.50 3.01
June 1979 0.50 2.85
July 1979 0.45 2.96
August 1979 0.51 2.88
September 1979 0.50 3.06
October 1979 0.50 3.06
November 1979 0.52 2.95
December 1979 0.51 3.12
January 1980 0.51 3.21
February 1980 0.48 3.33
March 1980 0.58 3.50
April 1980 0.65 3.83
May 1980 0.67 4.07
June 1980 0.72 4.34
July 1980 0.82 4.49
August 1980 0.87 4.50
September 1980 0.90 4.60
October 1980 0.99 4.52
November 1980 1.05 4.49
December 1980 1.07 4.32
January 1981 1.17 4.37
February 1981 1.15 4.39
March 1981 1.12 4.33
April 1981 1.04 4.28
May 1981 1.05 4.41
June 1981 1.04 4.29
July 1981 1.00 4.21
August 1981 1.07 4.35
September 1981 1.03 4.42
October 1981 1.04 4.55
November 1981 1.05 4.72
December 1981 1.08 4.92
January 1982 1.09 5.03
February 1982 1.17 5.37
March 1982 1.24 5.54
April 1982 1.37 5.75
May 1982 1.46 5.95
June 1982 1.62 6.24
July 1982 1.65 6.21
August 1982 1.69 6.38
September 1982 1.82 6.67
October 1982 2.03 6.91
November 1982 2.11 7.21
December 1982 2.31 7.28
January 1983 2.41 7.21
February 1983 2.45 7.07
March 1983 2.48 7.02
April 1983 2.45 6.75
May 1983 2.48 6.78
June 1983 2.58 6.61
July 1983 2.32 6.40
August 1983 2.25 6.33
September 1983 2.17 5.90
October 1983 2.03 5.70
November 1983 1.93 5.51
December 1983 1.83 5.25
January 1984 1.82 5.16
February 1984 1.63 4.86
March 1984 1.58 4.77
April 1984 1.56 4.70
May 1984 1.49 4.64
June 1984 1.38 4.29
July 1984 1.40 4.48
August 1984 1.33 4.41
September 1984 1.27 4.48
October 1984 1.25 4.31
November 1984 1.25 4.20
December 1984 1.22 4.35
January 1985 1.15 4.20
February 1985 1.17 4.21
March 1985 1.17 4.19
April 1985 1.19 4.24
May 1985 1.07 4.21
June 1985 1.11 4.20
July 1985 1.10 4.23
August 1985 1.06 4.14
September 1985 1.06 4.15
October 1985 1.03 4.17
November 1985 1.12 4.02
December 1985 1.04 4.08
January 1986 0.93 3.86
February 1986 1.01 4.17
March 1986 1.00 4.13
April 1986 1.00 4.12
May 1986 0.99 4.17
June 1986 1.08 4.26
July 1986 1.03 4.08
August 1986 1.01 3.96
September 1986 1.04 4.19
October 1986 1.02 4.04
November 1986 0.98 4.07
December 1986 0.97 3.84
January 1987 0.96 3.84
February 1987 0.93 3.80
March 1987 0.94 3.74
April 1987 0.90 3.63
May 1987 0.93 3.50
June 1987 0.90 3.56
July 1987 0.82 3.39
August 1987 0.87 3.35
September 1987 0.82 3.25
October 1987 0.79 3.28
November 1987 0.77 3.22
December 1987 0.75 3.10
January 1988 0.72 3.20
February 1988 0.73 3.18
March 1988 0.70 3.17
April 1988 0.67 2.88
May 1988 0.70 3.04
June 1988 0.66 2.84
July 1988 0.65 3.01
August 1988 0.65 2.96
September 1988 0.67 2.83
October 1988 0.63 2.80
November 1988 0.57 2.80
December 1988 0.60 2.86
January 1989 0.59 2.83
February 1989 0.52 2.58
March 1989 0.54 2.60
April 1989 0.58 2.74
May 1989 0.51 2.70
June 1989 0.49 2.68
July 1989 0.50 2.74
August 1989 0.45 2.69
September 1989 0.48 2.70
October 1989 0.52 2.72
November 1989 0.53 2.77
December 1989 0.51 2.70
January 1990 0.51 2.78
February 1990 0.50 2.72
March 1990 0.51 2.73
April 1990 0.52 2.82
May 1990 0.51 2.93
June 1990 0.51 2.83
July 1990 0.55 3.00
August 1990 0.58 3.06
September 1990 0.62 3.23
October 1990 0.62 3.26
November 1990 0.66 3.41
December 1990 0.66 3.46
January 1991 0.69 3.57
February 1991 0.72 3.72
March 1991 0.75 4.01
April 1991 0.77 3.96
May 1991 0.83 4.05
June 1991 0.88 4.27
July 1991 0.88 4.11
August 1991 0.93 4.13
September 1991 0.94 4.13
October 1991 0.98 4.28
November 1991 1.09 4.34
December 1991 1.19 4.50
January 1992 1.28 4.63
February 1992 1.34 4.82
March 1992 1.39 4.70
April 1992 1.37 4.66
May 1992 1.55 4.86
June 1992 1.67 5.11
July 1992 1.65 5.01
August 1992 1.61 4.99
September 1992 1.64 4.97
October 1992 1.71 4.79
November 1992 1.55 4.92
December 1992 1.60 4.99
January 1993 1.53 4.67
February 1993 1.48 4.49
March 1993 1.40 4.50
April 1993 1.27 4.38
May 1993 1.37 4.42
June 1993 1.38 4.57
July 1993 1.37 4.35
August 1993 1.37 4.34
September 1993 1.36 4.30
October 1993 1.40 4.28
November 1993 1.39 4.24
December 1993 1.37 4.10
January 1994 1.33 4.17
February 1994 1.35 4.46
March 1994 1.37 4.29
April 1994 1.34 4.10
May 1994 1.30 4.05
June 1994 1.21 3.97
July 1994 1.20 3.93
August 1994 1.20 4.05
September 1994 1.17 3.85
October 1994 1.21 3.98
November 1994 1.11 3.66
December 1994 1.04 3.51
January 1995 1.01 3.45
February 1995 0.93 3.44
March 1995 1.01 3.45
April 1995 1.07 3.65
May 1995 1.00 3.72
June 1995 0.94 3.50
July 1995 0.94 3.68
August 1995 0.93 3.65
September 1995 0.95 3.47
October 1995 0.92 3.51
November 1995 0.95 3.54
December 1995 0.92 3.58
January 1996 0.91 3.59
February 1996 0.90 3.44
March 1996 1.00 3.54
April 1996 1.01 3.61
May 1996 1.02 3.56
June 1996 1.02 3.38
July 1996 0.99 3.45
August 1996 0.94 3.32
September 1996 0.90 3.30
October 1996 0.88 3.41
November 1996 0.85 3.23
December 1996 0.85 3.36
January 1997 0.85 3.23
February 1997 0.82 3.32
March 1997 0.81 3.26
April 1997 0.81 3.21
May 1997 0.77 3.07
June 1997 0.79 3.13
July 1997 0.79 3.09
August 1997 0.79 3.02
September 1997 0.79 3.06
October 1997 0.76 2.87
November 1997 0.68 2.81
December 1997 0.72 2.80
January 1998 0.73 2.74
February 1998 0.70 2.72
March 1998 0.67 2.73
April 1998 0.64 2.48
May 1998 0.61 2.50
June 1998 0.57 2.69
July 1998 0.60 2.60
August 1998 0.59 2.61
September 1998 0.66 2.66
October 1998 0.62 2.52
November 1998 0.63 2.59
December 1998 0.58 2.43
January 1999 0.51 2.50
February 1999 0.58 2.52
March 1999 0.51 2.43
April 1999 0.50 2.39
May 1999 0.52 2.37
June 1999 0.58 2.44
July 1999 0.52 2.36
August 1999 0.51 2.35
September 1999 0.51 2.35
October 1999 0.52 2.35
November 1999 0.49 2.25
December 1999 0.49 2.13
January 2000 0.51 2.20
February 2000 0.44 2.25
March 2000 0.45 2.17
April 2000 0.42 2.18
May 2000 0.45 2.27
June 2000 0.44 2.10
July 2000 0.49 2.23
August 2000 0.50 2.31
September 2000 0.45 2.13
October 2000 0.44 2.15
November 2000 0.41 2.17
December 2000 0.45 2.20
January 2001 0.47 2.31
February 2001 0.50 2.27
March 2001 0.48 2.49
April 2001 0.50 2.43
May 2001 0.44 2.47
June 2001 0.50 2.48
July 2001 0.49 2.67
August 2001 0.60 2.83
September 2001 0.57 2.99
October 2001 0.63 3.20
November 2001 0.77 3.39
December 2001 0.78 3.63
January 2002 0.84 3.60
February 2002 0.84 3.58
March 2002 0.92 3.66
April 2002 1.01 3.96
May 2002 1.09 3.83
June 2002 1.13 3.92
July 2002 1.09 3.75
August 2002 1.08 3.73
September 2002 1.09 3.78
October 2002 1.14 3.82
November 2002 1.20 3.84
December 2002 1.33 4.04
January 2003 1.21 3.94
February 2003 1.28 3.95
March 2003 1.23 3.92
April 2003 1.32 4.10
May 2003 1.32 4.06
June 2003 1.43 4.28
July 2003 1.35 4.27
August 2003 1.36 4.22
September 2003 1.37 4.27
October 2003 1.34 4.12
November 2003 1.36 4.03
December 2003 1.32 3.97
January 2004 1.30 3.90
February 2004 1.27 3.87
March 2004 1.35 3.91
April 2004 1.23 3.66
May 2004 1.22 3.73
June 2004 1.25 3.74
July 2004 1.14 3.59
August 2004 1.11 3.67
September 2004 1.15 3.52
October 2004 1.18 3.62
November 2004 1.15 3.58
December 2004 1.12 3.51
January 2005 1.11 3.48
February 2005 1.10 3.53
March 2005 1.12 3.47
April 2005 1.08 3.34
May 2005 1.03 3.29
June 2005 0.92 3.19
July 2005 0.92 3.22
August 2005 0.94 3.25
September 2005 0.96 3.22
October 2005 0.95 3.19
November 2005 0.91 3.18
December 2005 0.90 3.12
January 2006 0.78 2.97
February 2006 0.90 3.08
March 2006 0.87 2.90
April 2006 0.88 2.98
May 2006 0.88 2.97
June 2006 0.76 2.78
July 2006 0.86 2.92
August 2006 0.86 2.99
September 2006 0.82 2.82
October 2006 0.71 2.74
November 2006 0.74 2.87
December 2006 0.72 2.70
January 2007 0.74 2.89
February 2007 0.81 2.86
March 2007 0.81 2.86
April 2007 0.79 2.92
May 2007 0.74 2.88
June 2007 0.75 2.88
July 2007 0.85 2.99
August 2007 0.82 2.95
September 2007 0.83 3.04
October 2007 0.85 3.15
November 2007 0.89 3.00
December 2007 0.86 3.18
January 2008 0.90 3.21
February 2008 0.86 3.12
March 2008 0.85 3.24
April 2008 0.89 3.39
May 2008 1.02 3.39
June 2008 1.03 3.83
July 2008 1.08 3.87
August 2008 1.21 4.01
September 2008 1.31 4.33
October 2008 1.47 4.58
November 2008 1.44 4.68
December 2008 1.69 5.23
January 2009 1.74 5.45
February 2009 1.93 6.05
March 2009 2.10 6.41
April 2009 2.40 6.71
May 2009 2.59 7.36
June 2009 2.84 7.66
July 2009 3.21 7.40
August 2009 3.27 7.68
September 2009 3.57 7.96
October 2009 3.67 8.02
November 2009 3.85 8.03
December 2009 4.00 8.09
January 2010 4.11 8.00
February 2010 3.99 7.95
March 2010 4.23 7.91
April 2010 4.31 7.72
May 2010 4.35 7.74
June 2010 4.35 7.83
July 2010 4.26 7.69
August 2010 4.06 7.83
September 2010 3.99 7.69
October 2010 4.05 7.90
November 2010 4.11 7.91
December 2010 4.19 7.70
January 2011 4.05 7.51
February 2011 3.91 7.35
March 2011 3.99 7.17
April 2011 3.81 7.01
May 2011 4.03 7.21
June 2011 4.10 7.23

Note: The data are monthly and extend through June 2011; they are three-month moving averages. Long-term unemployed persons are defined as persons who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more. The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (as shown in the figure, 1973:Q4-1975:Q1, 1980:Q1-1980:Q3, 1981:Q3-1982:Q4, 1990:Q3-1991:Q1, 2001:Q1-2001:Q4, and December 2007-June 2009).

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Figure B. Monthly Probability of Reemployment, by Duration of Unemployment, 2006-11

Percent per month

Period 1-4 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks 27+ weeks
January 2006 35.58 24.76 18.83 15.32
February 2006 36.03 24.92 19.63 15.33
March 2006 36.66 24.64 19.32 14.95
April 2006 36.58 24.95 19.30 14.45
May 2006 35.92 24.76 20.28 15.31
June 2006 36.95 25.24 21.41 15.81
July 2006 36.92 25.01 21.77 16.16
August 2006 36.51 24.61 22.11 16.22
September 2006 36.60 25.69 22.70 17.13
October 2006 36.38 26.20 23.19 17.55
November 2006 37.64 26.49 22.77 15.88
December 2006 37.31 26.95 22.11 16.56
January 2007 36.96 27.34 22.07 16.58
February 2007 37.89 28.15 22.70 16.01
March 2007 38.51 27.80 22.14 15.92
April 2007 38.68 26.35 21.77 16.14
May 2007 38.16 26.38 22.08 16.61
June 2007 38.01 26.18 21.52 15.65
July 2007 37.63 26.03 21.48 15.31
August 2007 37.20 26.16 19.94 15.42
September 2007 35.85 25.66 19.77 14.88
October 2007 36.13 26.47 19.46 15.03
November 2007 36.51 25.71 18.86 15.13
December 2007 36.03 25.34 19.63 15.19
January 2008 36.04 25.05 20.32 15.47
February 2008 36.08 24.27 21.09 15.93
March 2008 36.52 24.39 20.98 16.18
April 2008 36.09 24.04 20.58 15.75
May 2008 35.99 24.91 20.53 15.52
June 2008 35.29 24.14 19.81 15.09
July 2008 35.08 23.78 18.60 14.00
August 2008 34.25 23.75 18.17 12.83
September 2008 33.76 23.16 17.47 12.32
October 2008 34.27 23.06 17.94 11.97
November 2008 32.65 21.72 17.66 11.63
December 2008 32.21 21.63 16.56 11.45
January 2009 31.74 21.11 16.12 11.55
February 2009 30.59 20.21 15.23 11.40
March 2009 29.61 19.65 15.02 10.63
April 2009 28.69 19.25 14.24 10.20
May 2009 28.38 18.51 13.38 9.86
June 2009 28.43 18.05 13.43 9.86
July 2009 28.46 18.36 13.28 9.75
August 2009 28.61 18.12 12.87 9.68
September 2009 29.38 18.10 12.67 9.80
October 2009 29.57 17.64 12.29 9.85
November 2009 29.81 18.10 12.71 9.91
December 2009 30.12 17.92 12.71 9.56
January 2010 30.47 17.47 12.61 9.32
February 2010 30.98 17.47 12.61 9.30
March 2010 31.05 18.13 12.96 9.45
April 2010 31.31 18.78 13.74 9.64
May 2010 31.62 18.74 13.81 9.82
June 2010 31.23 19.17 14.02 9.84
July 2010 31.31 19.43 14.34 10.33
August 2010 31.16 19.59 14.50 10.51
September 2010 30.41 19.19 14.20 10.80
October 2010 29.72 18.78 13.74 10.50
November 2010 29.01 19.51 13.73 10.31
December 2010 29.71 19.71 14.03 10.58
January 2011 29.24 19.36 13.91 10.25
February 2011 29.17 19.57 14.14 9.96
March 2011 29.49 19.71 14.22 9.80
April 2011 29.86 19.57 14.28 10.36
May 2011 30.65 19.15 13.82 10.15

Note: The data are monthly and extend through May 2011; they are six-month moving averages. Duration is through the month before potentially becoming employed. The shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (as shown in the figure, December 2007-June 2009).

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on microdata from the Current Population Survey, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Figure 32. Change in Output per Hour, 1948-2011

Percent, annual rate

Period Percent change
1948-1973 2.67
1974-1995 1.44
1996-2000 2.86
2001-2004 3.30
2005 1.40
2006 0.90
2007 2.60
2008 -0.40
2009 6.50
2010 2.00
2011:Q1 1.80

Note: Nonfarm business sector. Change for each multiyear period is measured to the fourth quarter of the final year of the period from the fourth quarter of the year immediately preceding the period.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Figure 33. Measures of Change in Hourly Compensation, 2001-11

Percent

Period Employment cost index Nonfarm business compensation per hour
2001:Q1 4.2 5.4
2001:Q2 4.0 5.4
2001:Q3 4.0 3.6
2001:Q4 4.1 4.0
2002:Q1 3.8 2.7
2002:Q2 4.0 3.4
2002:Q3 3.5 3.6
2002:Q4 3.1 3.1
2003:Q1 3.6 3.6
2003:Q2 3.5 4.4
2003:Q3 3.9 5.3
2003:Q4 4.0 5.7
2004:Q1 3.8 3.5
2004:Q2 3.9 3.2
2004:Q3 3.8 3.4
2004:Q4 3.8 3.4
2005:Q1 3.5 4.7
2005:Q2 3.1 3.9
2005:Q3 2.9 3.7
2005:Q4 2.9 3.5
2006:Q1 2.6 4.1
2006:Q2 2.8 3.8
2006:Q3 3.0 2.7
2006:Q4 3.2 4.5
2007:Q1 3.2 4.1
2007:Q2 3.1 4.0
2007:Q3 3.1 4.4
2007:Q4 3.0 3.6
2008:Q1 3.2 3.8
2008:Q2 3.0 3.5
2008:Q3 2.8 3.6
2008:Q4 2.4 2.3
2009:Q1 1.9 0.2
2009:Q2 1.5 2.6
2009:Q3 1.2 2.5
2009:Q4 1.2 2.8
2010:Q1 1.6 3.6
2010:Q2 1.9 2.0
2010:Q3 2.0 1.9
2010:Q4 2.1 1.4
2011:Q1 2.0 2.0

Note: The data are quarterly and extend through 2011:Q1. For nonfarm business compensation, change is over four quarters; for the employment cost index (ECI), change is over the 12 months ending in the last month of each quarter. The nonfarm business sector excludes farms, government, nonprofit institutions, and households. The sector covered by the ECI used here is the nonfarm business sector plus nonprofit institutions.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Figure 34. Change in the Chain-Type Price Index for Personal Consumption Expenditures, 2005-11

Percent, annual rate

Period Total Excluding food and energy
2005 3.00 2.32
2006 2.30 2.30
2007 3.60 2.50
2008 0.58 1.78
2009 2.39 1.78
2010 1.14 0.73
2011 4.10 2.30

Note: Through 2010, change is from December to December; for 2011, change is from December to May.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 35. Median Inflation Expectations, 2001-11

Percent

Period Next 12 months Next 5 to 10 years
January 2001 3.0 2.9
February 2001 2.8 3.0
March 2001 2.8 3.0
April 2001 3.1 3.1
May 2001 3.2 3.0
June 2001 3.0 3.0
July 2001 2.6 2.9
August 2001 2.7 3.0
September 2001 2.8 2.9
October 2001 1.0 2.7
November 2001 0.4 2.8
December 2001 1.8 3.0
January 2002 1.9 2.7
February 2002 2.1 2.8
March 2002 2.7 2.8
April 2002 2.8 2.8
May 2002 2.7 3.0
June 2002 2.7 2.8
July 2002 2.6 2.8
August 2002 2.6 2.9
September 2002 2.5 2.5
October 2002 2.5 2.8
November 2002 2.4 2.8
December 2002 2.5 2.8
January 2003 2.5 2.7
February 2003 2.7 2.7
March 2003 2.1 2.8
April 2003 2.4 2.7
May 2003 2.0 2.8
June 2003 2.1 2.7
July 2003 1.7 2.7
August 2003 2.5 2.7
September 2003 2.8 2.7
October 2003 2.6 2.8
November 2003 2.7 2.7
December 2003 2.6 2.8
January 2004 2.7 2.8
February 2004 2.6 2.9
March 2004 2.9 2.9
April 2004 3.2 2.7
May 2004 3.3 2.8
June 2004 3.3 2.9
July 2004 3.0 2.8
August 2004 2.8 2.7
September 2004 2.8 2.8
October 2004 3.1 2.8
November 2004 2.8 2.7
December 2004 3.0 2.8
January 2005 2.9 2.7
February 2005 2.9 2.8
March 2005 3.2 2.9
April 2005 3.3 3.0
May 2005 3.2 2.9
June 2005 3.2 2.8
July 2005 3.0 2.9
August 2005 3.1 2.8
September 2005 4.3 3.1
October 2005 4.6 3.2
November 2005 3.3 3.0
December 2005 3.1 3.1
January 2006 3.0 2.9
February 2006 3.0 2.9
March 2006 3.0 2.9
April 2006 3.3 3.1
May 2006 4.0 3.2
June 2006 3.3 2.9
July 2006 3.2 2.9
August 2006 3.8 3.2
September 2006 3.1 3.0
October 2006 3.1 3.1
November 2006 3.0 3.0
December 2006 2.9 3.0
January 2007 3.0 3.0
February 2007 3.0 2.9
March 2007 3.0 2.9
April 2007 3.3 3.1
May 2007 3.3 3.1
June 2007 3.4 2.9
July 2007 3.4 3.1
August 2007 3.2 2.9
September 2007 3.1 2.9
October 2007 3.1 2.8
November 2007 3.4 2.9
December 2007 3.4 3.1
January 2008 3.4 3.0
February 2008 3.6 3.0
March 2008 4.3 2.9
April 2008 4.8 3.2
May 2008 5.2 3.4
June 2008 5.1 3.4
July 2008 5.1 3.2
August 2008 4.8 3.2
September 2008 4.3 3.0
October 2008 3.9 2.9
November 2008 2.9 2.9
December 2008 1.7 2.6
January 2009 2.2 2.9
February 2009 1.9 3.1
March 2009 2.0 2.6
April 2009 2.8 2.8
May 2009 2.8 2.9
June 2009 3.1 3.0
July 2009 2.9 3.0
August 2009 2.8 2.8
September 2009 2.2 2.8
October 2009 2.9 2.9
November 2009 2.7 3.0
December 2009 2.5 2.7
January 2010 2.8 2.9
February 2010 2.7 2.7
March 2010 2.7 2.7
April 2010 2.9 2.7
May 2010 3.2 2.9
June 2010 2.8 2.8
July 2010 2.7 2.9
August 2010 2.7 2.8
September 2010 2.2 2.7
October 2010 2.7 2.8
November 2010 3.0 2.8
December 2010 3.0 2.8
January 2011 3.4 2.9
February 2011 3.4 2.9
March 2011 4.6 3.2
April 2011 4.6 2.9
May 2011 4.1 2.9
June 2011 3.8 3.0

Note: The data are monthly and extend through June 2011.

Source: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Return to text

Figure 36. Interest Rates on Treasury Securities at Selected Maturities, 2004-11

Percent

Date 3-month Treasury securities 2-year Treasury securities 10-year Treasury securities
2 January 2004 0.93 1.94 4.38
5 January 2004 0.92 1.95 4.41
6 January 2004 0.92 1.84 4.29
7 January 2004 0.91 1.84 4.27
8 January 2004 0.88 1.85 4.27
9 January 2004 0.87 1.68 4.11
12 January 2004 0.90 1.68 4.11
13 January 2004 0.89 1.63 4.05
14 January 2004 0.88 1.65 4.01
15 January 2004 0.88 1.67 3.99
16 January 2004 0.89 1.70 4.04
19 January 2004 ND ND ND
20 January 2004 0.90 1.69 4.08
21 January 2004 0.89 1.69 4.05
22 January 2004 0.88 1.66 3.99
23 January 2004 0.90 1.71 4.09
26 January 2004 0.91 1.75 4.16
27 January 2004 0.91 1.70 4.11
28 January 2004 0.94 1.87 4.22
29 January 2004 0.94 1.88 4.22
30 January 2004 0.92 1.84 4.16
2 February 2004 0.95 1.83 4.18
3 February 2004 0.94 1.78 4.13
4 February 2004 0.94 1.80 4.15
5 February 2004 0.94 1.85 4.20
6 February 2004 0.93 1.77 4.12
9 February 2004 0.95 1.76 4.09
10 February 2004 0.95 1.82 4.13
11 February 2004 0.93 1.73 4.05
12 February 2004 0.93 1.75 4.10
13 February 2004 0.92 1.70 4.05
16 February 2004 ND ND ND
17 February 2004 0.95 1.70 4.05
18 February 2004 0.94 1.72 4.05
19 February 2004 0.94 1.70 4.05
20 February 2004 0.94 1.75 4.10
23 February 2004 0.97 1.69 4.05
24 February 2004 0.97 1.69 4.04
25 February 2004 0.96 1.67 4.02
26 February 2004 0.96 1.69 4.05
27 February 2004 0.96 1.66 3.99
1 March 2004 0.97 1.67 4.00
2 March 2004 0.97 1.74 4.05
3 March 2004 0.97 1.74 4.07
4 March 2004 0.96 1.73 4.04
5 March 2004 0.95 1.57 3.85
8 March 2004 0.95 1.52 3.78
9 March 2004 0.96 1.51 3.73
10 March 2004 0.96 1.54 3.74
11 March 2004 0.97 1.52 3.74
12 March 2004 0.96 1.54 3.78
15 March 2004 0.97 1.56 3.78
16 March 2004 0.96 1.51 3.70
17 March 2004 0.93 1.53 3.71
18 March 2004 0.93 1.55 3.76
19 March 2004 0.93 1.56 3.80
22 March 2004 0.96 1.52 3.74
23 March 2004 0.95 1.52 3.73
24 March 2004 0.93 1.50 3.73
25 March 2004 0.93 1.51 3.75
26 March 2004 0.95 1.59 3.85
29 March 2004 0.97 1.63 3.91
30 March 2004 0.96 1.63 3.91
31 March 2004 0.95 1.60 3.86
1 April 2004 0.93 1.65 3.91
2 April 2004 0.95 1.86 4.15
5 April 2004 0.95 1.91 4.24
6 April 2004 0.93 1.86 4.19
7 April 2004 0.95 1.87 4.19
8 April 2004 0.93 1.88 4.21
9 April 2004 ND ND ND
12 April 2004 0.95 1.91 4.25
13 April 2004 0.95 2.01 4.35
14 April 2004 0.96 2.13 4.40
15 April 2004 0.95 2.10 4.42
16 April 2004 0.93 2.03 4.37
19 April 2004 0.97 2.07 4.39
20 April 2004 0.98 2.11 4.43
21 April 2004 1.00 2.22 4.45
22 April 2004 0.97 2.15 4.40
23 April 2004 0.98 2.29 4.48
26 April 2004 1.00 2.28 4.46
27 April 2004 0.99 2.21 4.43
28 April 2004 0.98 2.30 4.50
29 April 2004 0.97 2.34 4.55
30 April 2004 0.98 2.31 4.53
3 May 2004 1.01 2.34 4.53
4 May 2004 1.01 2.32 4.56
5 May 2004 0.99 2.34 4.61
6 May 2004 1.00 2.39 4.63
7 May 2004 1.07 2.64 4.79
10 May 2004 1.09 2.61 4.81
11 May 2004 1.06 2.61 4.79
12 May 2004 1.04 2.62 4.83
13 May 2004 1.00 2.67 4.85
14 May 2004 0.99 2.59 4.79
17 May 2004 1.07 2.51 4.70
18 May 2004 1.06 2.58 4.74
19 May 2004 1.04 2.61 4.79
20 May 2004 1.03 2.55 4.72
21 May 2004 1.03 2.60 4.76
24 May 2004 1.08 2.59 4.75
25 May 2004 1.08 2.58 4.73
26 May 2004 1.08 2.52 4.67
27 May 2004 1.06 2.46 4.60
28 May 2004 1.08 2.54 4.66
31 May 2004 ND ND ND
1 June 2004 1.17 2.60 4.71
2 June 2004 1.17 2.65 4.74
3 June 2004 1.17 2.63 4.71
4 June 2004 1.20 2.70 4.78
7 June 2004 1.25 2.67 4.78
8 June 2004 1.27 2.73 4.78
9 June 2004 1.27 2.79 4.82
10 June 2004 1.29 2.81 4.81
11 June 2004 ND ND ND
14 June 2004 1.42 2.97 4.89
15 June 2004 1.34 2.77 4.69
16 June 2004 1.30 2.84 4.74
17 June 2004 1.27 2.81 4.71
18 June 2004 1.28 2.81 4.72
21 June 2004