Accessible Version

Accessible Version of Figures

Figure 1: 10-Year Treasury Yields during the "Taper Tantrum"

Daily
Percent

Date 10-year Treasury yield
1 April 2013 1.86
2 April 2013 1.88
3 April 2013 1.83
4 April 2013 1.78
5 April 2013 1.72
8 April 2013 1.76
9 April 2013 1.78
10 April 2013 1.84
11 April 2013 1.82
12 April 2013 1.75
15 April 2013 1.72
16 April 2013 1.75
17 April 2013 1.73
18 April 2013 1.72
19 April 2013 1.73
22 April 2013 1.72
23 April 2013 1.74
24 April 2013 1.73
25 April 2013 1.74
26 April 2013 1.70
29 April 2013 1.70
30 April 2013 1.70
1 May 2013 1.66
2 May 2013 1.66
3 May 2013 1.78
6 May 2013 1.80
7 May 2013 1.82
8 May 2013 1.81
9 May 2013 1.81
10 May 2013 1.90
13 May 2013 1.92
14 May 2013 1.96
15 May 2013 1.94
16 May 2013 1.87
17 May 2013 1.95
20 May 2013 1.97
21 May 2013 1.94
22 May 2013 2.03
23 May 2013 2.02
24 May 2013 2.01
27 May 2013 ND
28 May 2013 2.15
29 May 2013 2.13
30 May 2013 2.13
31 May 2013 2.16
3 June 2013 2.13
4 June 2013 2.14
5 June 2013 2.10
6 June 2013 2.08
7 June 2013 2.17
10 June 2013 2.22
11 June 2013 2.20
12 June 2013 2.25
13 June 2013 2.19
14 June 2013 2.14
17 June 2013 2.19
18 June 2013 2.20
19 June 2013 2.33
20 June 2013 2.41
21 June 2013 2.52
24 June 2013 2.57
25 June 2013 2.60
26 June 2013 2.55
27 June 2013 2.49
28 June 2013 2.52
1 July 2013 2.50
2 July 2013 2.48
3 July 2013 2.52
4 July 2013 ND
5 July 2013 2.73
8 July 2013 2.65
9 July 2013 2.65
10 July 2013 2.70
11 July 2013 2.60
12 July 2013 2.61
15 July 2013 2.57
16 July 2013 2.55
17 July 2013 2.52
18 July 2013 2.56
19 July 2013 2.50
22 July 2013 2.50
23 July 2013 2.53
24 July 2013 2.61
25 July 2013 2.61
26 July 2013 2.58
29 July 2013 2.61
30 July 2013 2.63
31 July 2013 2.60
1 August 2013 2.74

Note: JEC is Joint Economic Committee; FOMC is Federal Open Market Committee. The date marked by the vertical line labeled "JEC testimony" is May 22, 2013, and the date marked by the vertical line labeled "June FOMC" is June 19, 2013.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release H.15, "Selected Interest Rates," https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15.

ND No data

Figure 2: Primary Dealer vs. Blue Chip Surveys

Timing of the Start of Tapering (June 2013 surveys)
Percent

Period PD BCEI
Sept. 2013 or earlier 33 24
Oct. 2013 14 17
Dec. 2013 33 23
2014 or later 19 36

Note: PD survey questions were distributed on June 6, 2013, and responses were received by June 10, 2013. The BCEI survey was taken during June 5-6, 2013.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Primary Dealers (PD), https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/primarydealer_survey_questions.html; Wolters Kluwer, Blue Chip Economic Indicators (BCEI).

Figure 3: March 2017 Primary Dealer Survey and Market Participant Survey

Point estimate for the most likely outcome of the level of the target federal funds rate or range when the FOMC first announces a change to its reinvestment policy:

Primary Dealers:

  Level of the Target Fed Funds Rate/Range
25th Percentile 1.38%
Median 1.63%
75th Percentile 1.88%

Market Participants:

  Level of the Target Fed Funds Rate/Range
25th Percentile 1.38%
Median 1.63%
75th Percentile 1.63%

Note: Survey responses received by March 6, 2017. FOMC is Federal Open Market Committee. March FOMC meeting took place on March 14-15, 2017.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Primary Dealers (https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/primarydealer_survey_questions.html) and Survey of Market Participants (https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/survey_market_participants.html).

Figure 4: March 2017 Primary Dealer Survey and Market Participant Survey

Percent chance you attach to the following outcomes for the level of the target fed funds rate or range when the FOMC first announces a change in its reinvestment policy:

Primary Dealers:

  ≤0.75% 0.76-1.00% 1.01-1.25% 1.26-1.50% 1.51-1.75% 1.76-2.00% ≥2.01%
Average 0% 2% 13% 25% 28% 20% 12%

Market Participants:

  ≤0.75% 0.76-1.00% 1.01-1.25% 1.26-1.50% 1.51-1.75% 1.76-2.00% ≥2.01%
Average 0% 2% 12% 28% 32% 15% 11%

Note: Survey responses received by March 6, 2017. FOMC is Federal Open Market Committee. March FOMC meeting took place on March 14-15, 2017.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Primary Dealers (https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/primarydealer_survey_questions.html) and Survey of Market Participants (https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/survey_market_participants.html).

Figure 5: March 2017 Primary Dealer Survey and Market Participant Survey

Indicate the percent chance you attach to the following possible outcomes for the timing of when the FOMC first announces a change in its reinvestment policy:

Primary Dealers:

  Mar. 14-15 FOMC Meeting Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 H2 2018 ≥2019
Average 0% 3% 8% 17% 21% 18% 19% 13%

Market Participants:

  Mar. 14-15 FOMC Meeting Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 H2 2018 ≥2019
Average 1% 4% 11% 27% 21% 17% 10% 9%

Note: Survey responses received by March 6, 2017. FOMC is Federal Open Market Committee. March FOMC meeting took place on March 14-15, 2017.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Primary Dealers (https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/primarydealer_survey_questions.html) and Survey of Market Participants (https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/survey_market_participants.html).

Last Update: April 17, 2017