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Title:  Chart 1.  Interest Rates and EME Capital Inflows, panel 1:  Government Bond Yields
Series:  Emerging market economies and United States 5-year
Horizon:  2002 to 2013
Description:  Data are plotted as two curves.  Units are percent.

The emerging market economies series starts in 2002 at about 8.5, falling to a little above 6 by early 2003.  The series then begins an incline, reaching almost 8 in early 2004, before fluctuating between about 6.5 and 7.5 through 2007.  The series then increases to peak at about 8.5 in early 2008 before declining to about 7 in early 2010.  It increases to about 7.5 in early 2011 before declining until early 2013, when it starts increasing.  The series ends in 2013 at a bit below 7.

The United States 5-year series starts in 2002 at about 4.5, falling to about 2.5 by early 2003.  The series then begins a fairly steady incline, peaking at about 5 at the start of 2006 before falling again to a bit below 3 at the start of 2008.  It rises slightly during the year, before declining to a bit below 2 in early 2009.   The series fluctuates between about 1 and 2 until early 2012, when it dips below 1.  It starts increasing in mid-2012, ending the series in 2013 at almost 1.5

Note:  Emerging market economies series uses J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets, local currency debt.
Source:  Bloomberg, Haver, IMF International Financial Statistics, and J.P. Morgan.

Title:  Chart 1.  Interest Rates and EME Capital Inflows, panel 2:  Interest Rate Differential (EME less United States)
Series:  EME net private capital inflows and interest rate differential
Horizon:  2002 to 2013

Description:  EME net private capital inflows data are plotted as bars; interest rate differential data are plotted as a curve.  Units for EME net private capital inflows are billions of dollars; units for interest rate differential are percentage points.

The EME net private capital inflows series starts in 2002:Q1 a bit below 20 and fluctuates between about negative 5 and 20 through the end of the year.  The series increase, reaching about 30 by 2004:Q1.  The series generally increases, with occasional drops, to reach about 70 in 2008:Q1.  It then starts declining and drops to near negative 80 in 2008:Q4.  The series starts 2009 at about negative 20 then begins increasing, peaking at almost 100 in 2011:Q2, before decreasing to about 20 by the end of the year.  The series then fluctuates between about 30 and 80 before it ends in 2013:Q2 at close to 40. 

The interest rate differential series starts in 2002 at about 4 and fluctuates around this level until it starts declining, reaching its trough of about 2 in early 2006.  The series begins a steady increase in early 2007, peaking at a bit above 60 in mid-2008.  The series then fluctuates between about 50 and 60 through the remainder of the horizon, ending a bit below 60.

Note:  EME net private capital inflows series uses balance of payments data.  Includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand. 
Source:  Bloomberg, Haver, IMF International Financial Statistics, and J.P. Morgan.

Chart 2: Real GDP Growth and EME Capital Inflows

Real GDP Growth

Date Emerging Market Economies* (Percent, annual rate) Advanced Economies** (Percent, annual rate)
2002Q1 1.40 0.73
2002Q2 2.58 1.11
2002Q3 3.41 1.85
2002Q4 3.89 1.87
2003Q1 3.64 1.53
2003Q2 2.75 1.57
2003Q3 3.66 2.13
2003Q4 5.03 2.94
2004Q1 5.58 3.45
2004Q2 6.43 3.29
2004Q3 5.80 2.81
2004Q4 4.85 2.29
2005Q1 4.72 2.26
2005Q2 4.97 2.47
2005Q3 4.94 2.66
2005Q4 5.39 2.76
2006Q1 6.15 3.06
2006Q2 5.60 2.88
2006Q3 6.07 2.42
2006Q4 5.77 2.77
2007Q1 5.79 2.40
2007Q2 6.11 2.45
2007Q3 6.08 2.73
2007Q4 6.61 2.22
2008Q1 6.10 1.71
2008Q2 5.79 0.92
2008Q3 4.87 -0.23
2008Q4 0.72 -2.73
2009Q1 -1.86 -5.00
2009Q2 -1.06 -4.84
2009Q3 0.94 -3.98
2009Q4 5.08 -1.08
2010Q1 8.50 1.86
2010Q2 8.30 2.77
2010Q3 6.88 3.17
2010Q4 6.36 2.75
2011Q1 5.91 1.98
2011Q2 4.96 1.29
2011Q3 4.58 1.29
2011Q4 3.58 1.27
2012Q1 3.37 1.99
2012Q2 3.34 1.74
2012Q3 3.18 1.23
2012Q4 3.95 0.69
2013Q1 3.35 0.35
2013Q2 3.49 0.87
2013Q3 3.43 1.10
2013Q4 ND ND

Growth Differential (EMEs less Advanced Economies)

Date Net private capital inflows*** (Billions of dollars) Growth differntial (Percentage points, annual rate)
2002Q1 14.17 0.67
2002Q2 19.22 1.46
2002Q3 -2.14 1.56
2002Q4 5.80 2.02
2003Q1 7.64 2.11
2003Q2 13.34 1.18
2003Q3 7.67 1.53
2003Q4 23.53 2.09
2004Q1 31.67 2.13
2004Q2 -12.20 3.13
2004Q3 2.55 3.00
2004Q4 38.48 2.56
2005Q1 32.66 2.46
2005Q2 20.15 2.51
2005Q3 2.61 2.28
2005Q4 -11.74 2.62
2006Q1 10.88 3.08
2006Q2 19.63 2.72
2006Q3 1.60 3.65
2006Q4 14.71 3.00
2007Q1 35.95 3.39
2007Q2 60.33 3.66
2007Q3 21.13 3.34
2007Q4 41.46 4.40
2008Q1 70.41 4.39
2008Q2 21.62 4.86
2008Q3 8.57 5.11
2008Q4 -77.24 3.45
2009Q1 -17.31 3.14
2009Q2 8.02 3.78
2009Q3 87.46 4.92
2009Q4 61.82 6.16
2010Q1 55.09 6.63
2010Q2 61.45 5.52
2010Q3 82.61 3.71
2010Q4 73.72 3.60
2011Q1 86.78 3.93
2011Q2 96.25 3.67
2011Q3 29.23 3.30
2011Q4 21.02 2.31
2012Q1 69.60 1.38
2012Q2 28.70 1.60
2012Q3 52.33 1.94
2012Q4 55.44 3.27
2013Q1 63.16 3.00
2013Q2 36.69 2.62
2013Q3 ND 2.33
2013Q4 ND ND

ND No data

* Nominal GDP weighted aggregate of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand. Return to table

** Nominal GDP weighted aggregate of Australia, Canada, Euro Area, Japan, Sweden, United Kingdom, and United States. Return to table

*** Balance of payments data. Includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand. Return to table

Source: Staff calculations based on data from Haver and IMF World Economic Outlook.

Chart 3: Risk and EME Capital Inflows

Date EME Net private capital inflows** (Billions of dollars) VIX index*
2007Q1 35.95 12.56
2007Q2 60.33 13.73
2007Q3 21.13 21.59
2007Q4 41.46 22.03
2008Q1 70.41 26.12
2008Q2 21.62 20.67
2008Q3 8.57 25.07
2008Q4 -77.24 58.54
2009Q1 -17.31 45.00
2009Q2 8.02 33.02
2009Q3 87.46 25.51
2009Q4 61.82 23.07
2010Q1 55.09 20.15
2010Q2 61.45 26.39
2010Q3 82.61 24.28
2010Q4 73.72 19.32
2011Q1 86.78 18.61
2011Q2 96.25 17.48
2011Q3 29.23 30.58
2011Q4 21.02 29.94
2012Q1 69.60 18.20
2012Q2 28.70 20.04
2012Q3 52.33 16.19
2012Q4 55.44 16.77
2013Q1 63.16 13.53
2013Q2 36.69 14.84
2013Q3 ND 14.28
2013Q4 ND 15.33

ND No data

* The Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. Return to table

** Balance of payments data. Includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand. Return to table

Source: Bloomberg, Haver, and IMF International Financial Statistics

Chart 4: Real Exchange Rates*

Korea, Taiwan, India, Indonesia, and China

Date Korea (Jan. 2007 = 100) Taiwan (Jan. 2007 = 100) India (Jan. 2007 = 100) Indonesia (Jan. 2007 = 100) China (Jan. 2007 = 100)
2007M01 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
2007M02 100.13 99.25 99.89 100.14 101.21
2007M03 99.17 97.09 99.50 98.36 100.01
2007M04 100.20 97.18 104.47 98.40 99.30
2007M05 100.03 96.40 107.54 100.79 99.66
2007M06 99.80 97.68 108.74 99.54 100.26
2007M07 101.27 97.97 111.11 98.99 101.67
2007M08 99.77 98.99 110.20 96.60 103.24
2007M09 100.70 99.49 111.28 97.62 104.28
2007M10 102.18 102.83 114.83 100.51 104.90
2007M11 101.15 102.31 114.27 98.36 105.98
2007M12 100.26 100.90 112.70 97.86 107.75
2008M01 99.07 99.97 113.95 98.50 110.47
2008M02 98.95 103.34 112.46 101.29 114.40
2008M03 95.20 104.78 111.63 101.47 113.96
2008M04 94.66 106.04 112.90 100.79 114.40
2008M05 90.32 104.40 106.54 100.36 113.44
2008M06 90.22 106.01 104.92 101.64 113.12
2008M07 91.86 105.90 105.85 103.96 113.43
2008M08 89.33 103.83 107.09 104.94 113.69
2008M09 82.53 100.86 102.31 103.77 114.45
2008M10 71.12 101.09 99.15 98.79 115.50
2008M11 68.72 100.77 100.60 86.54 116.70
2008M12 71.33 99.79 101.14 90.47 117.11
2009M01 71.47 98.34 101.53 90.88 118.14
2009M02 67.39 93.92 99.90 85.11 117.70
2009M03 67.24 93.62 95.99 85.30 116.93
2009M04 73.18 96.06 99.15 91.09 116.33
2009M05 77.49 98.33 103.02 96.63 115.78
2009M06 76.46 97.70 105.15 97.42 113.90
2009M07 76.83 97.73 108.59 99.04 113.84
2009M08 78.22 99.33 109.81 100.40 114.25
2009M09 79.99 99.59 109.63 102.70 115.06
2009M10 82.29 100.62 115.84 106.81 115.29
2009M11 83.15 99.72 117.29 107.06 115.29
2009M12 83.56 99.64 118.74 107.53 116.63
2010M01 85.78 100.61 122.47 110.07 117.00
2010M02 84.63 100.50 120.20 109.69 118.48
2010M03 85.91 99.86 120.62 111.14 117.20
2010M04 87.70 101.65 124.42 112.79 117.05
2010M05 84.00 100.27 121.97 111.31 116.94
2010M06 80.59 99.57 121.40 112.83 116.23
2010M07 81.43 100.19 123.13 115.87 117.11
2010M08 83.41 100.76 123.75 117.47 117.69
2010M09 85.44 101.54 126.51 117.88 119.39
2010M10 88.22 104.82 131.96 118.39 121.80
2010M11 87.15 106.69 130.21 118.80 122.92
2010M12 86.14 107.18 132.01 118.66 123.41
2011M01 88.82 109.56 131.71 118.93 124.98
2011M02 89.10 109.21 130.31 120.15 126.39
2011M03 88.44 106.43 130.76 120.72 125.10
2011M04 90.89 108.41 132.47 121.13 124.95
2011M05 90.54 109.08 131.18 121.92 125.20
2011M06 91.14 109.55 133.68 122.65 125.76
2011M07 93.49 109.03 136.92 123.88 126.30
2011M08 92.42 108.27 135.23 124.62 127.66
2011M09 88.24 105.44 129.79 121.34 128.66
2011M10 86.05 104.40 126.95 119.93 129.91
2011M11 87.51 104.59 123.68 118.84 129.68
2011M12 86.94 104.98 119.43 119.15 130.69
2012M01 87.57 105.75 122.56 119.41 132.50
2012M02 88.89 105.50 127.20 119.56 132.35
2012M03 87.86 104.90 124.25 116.97 131.29
2012M04 86.91 105.81 122.37 116.63 130.74
2012M05 85.55 106.38 117.65 115.38 130.23
2012M06 85.10 105.64 115.78 114.42 128.64
2012M07 86.65 105.98 118.82 115.13 128.49
2012M08 87.30 106.53 119.47 115.06 128.93
2012M09 88.17 107.38 122.53 113.85 129.94
2012M10 89.52 108.21 126.37 113.60 131.55
2012M11 91.13 108.37 123.56 113.93 132.54
2012M12 92.55 109.20 124.41 114.07 134.11
2013M01 93.55 108.47 125.69 114.61 135.07
2013M02 91.27 106.17 126.44 115.08 135.39
2013M03 89.58 103.97 125.08 115.06 134.16
2013M04 88.15 104.44 126.03 114.96 135.00
2013M05 88.74 104.63 125.36 114.24 135.08
2013M06 86.61 104.36 119.79 113.33 134.68
2013M07 87.51 104.12 118.49 115.06 134.43
2013M08 88.36 104.10 113.87 110.55 135.37
2013M09 91.17 106.48 113.58 103.11 136.73
2013M10 92.39 107.44 117.76 104.97 137.33
2013M11 93.32 107.34 118.09 103.81 137.64
2013M12 ND ND ND ND ND

Brazil and Mexico

Date Brazil (Jan. 2007 = 100) Mexico (Jan. 2007 = 100)
2007M01 100.00 100.00
2007M02 101.87 99.39
2007M03 101.57 97.65
2007M04 103.98 98.14
2007M05 106.16 98.49
2007M06 109.21 98.32
2007M07 112.62 98.93
2007M08 108.81 97.45
2007M09 112.27 98.04
2007M10 118.80 100.12
2007M11 120.65 99.69
2007M12 120.23 100.49
2008M01 121.09 99.91
2008M02 124.09 101.19
2008M03 125.03 101.38
2008M04 126.50 103.09
2008M05 128.61 102.87
2008M06 131.65 103.37
2008M07 134.21 104.59
2008M08 133.39 106.60
2008M09 119.94 101.95
2008M10 100.60 87.34
2008M11 98.84 86.91
2008M12 94.82 86.46
2009M01 98.32 83.38
2009M02 97.57 79.04
2009M03 97.80 79.08
2009M04 102.94 86.50
2009M05 109.82 87.40
2009M06 115.60 85.82
2009M07 117.85 86.06
2009M08 123.55 88.43
2009M09 125.72 86.17
2009M10 131.79 87.51
2009M11 133.00 88.68
2009M12 131.75 90.93
2010M01 129.78 91.99
2010M02 126.25 91.57
2010M03 130.38 94.56
2010M04 132.84 96.61
2010M05 129.13 92.26
2010M06 130.23 92.44
2010M07 133.09 91.94
2010M08 133.97 92.35
2010M09 137.80 92.55
2010M10 141.45 95.68
2010M11 140.01 97.20
2010M12 141.94 97.10
2011M01 143.95 99.21
2011M02 144.84 99.61
2011M03 145.38 99.41
2011M04 152.14 101.21
2011M05 149.34 100.44
2011M06 152.79 99.25
2011M07 155.43 100.76
2011M08 152.58 96.02
2011M09 139.86 90.02
2011M10 139.02 88.29
2011M11 138.45 87.64
2011M12 135.33 88.07
2012M01 139.29 90.89
2012M02 144.62 94.93
2012M03 137.56 94.49
2012M04 133.60 91.73
2012M05 125.59 87.76
2012M06 122.12 86.39
2012M07 124.17 90.64
2012M08 124.35 91.67
2012M09 124.60 93.48
2012M10 125.15 94.18
2012M11 124.12 94.06
2012M12 124.59 95.99
2013M01 128.04 97.37
2013M02 131.17 96.83
2013M03 130.73 99.04
2013M04 130.31 101.60
2013M05 128.40 100.31
2013M06 120.73 94.89
2013M07 116.67 96.32
2013M08 112.59 95.35
2013M09 116.69 94.55
2013M10 121.19 95.20
2013M11 117.85 94.72
2013M12 ND ND

ND No data

* Bilateral vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar, CPI based. Return to text

Source: Staff calculations based on data from Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Board, and Haver

Chart 5: EME Equity Prices

Emerging Market Aggregate, Brazil, and Mexico

Date Emerging Market Aggregate* (Jan. 2007 = 100) Brazil (Jan. 2007 = 100) Mexico (Jan. 2007 = 100)
2007M01 100.00 100.00 100.00
2007M02 102.88 103.96 105.81
2007M03 99.58 101.28 102.81
2007M04 105.97 110.61 111.01
2007M05 108.70 117.92 114.09
2007M06 113.20 123.48 119.14
2007M07 120.68 129.36 119.34
2007M08 113.82 120.07 111.00
2007M09 121.66 129.74 114.46
2007M10 134.62 144.28 120.12
2007M11 131.29 143.75 110.06
2007M12 131.25 146.10 112.87
2008M01 122.24 137.30 105.07
2008M02 119.90 143.95 109.63
2008M03 115.88 141.66 110.92
2008M04 121.99 147.86 118.46
2008M05 127.56 163.92 117.55
2008M06 119.46 154.76 114.03
2008M07 107.86 137.58 104.87
2008M08 103.09 127.65 100.76
2008M09 93.50 116.46 95.65
2008M10 72.40 87.80 77.22
2008M11 66.29 82.65 74.13
2008M12 68.63 86.45 80.97
2009M01 68.45 91.08 77.92
2009M02 67.82 92.48 71.79
2009M03 68.67 90.89 70.92
2009M04 77.98 104.09 80.85
2009M05 86.56 117.15 90.07
2009M06 89.86 119.84 92.51
2009M07 91.63 119.94 95.36
2009M08 97.76 130.43 105.39
2009M09 101.58 136.26 109.38
2009M10 105.44 147.30 112.92
2009M11 106.23 151.92 115.27
2009M12 108.44 156.76 120.76
2010M01 110.04 157.86 120.42
2010M02 104.64 151.78 117.95
2010M03 109.51 158.99 123.39
2010M04 112.75 160.53 126.35
2010M05 104.99 144.11 119.00
2010M06 105.62 145.78 120.37
2010M07 107.57 147.65 120.91
2010M08 110.12 153.25 121.20
2010M09 113.62 156.05 123.88
2010M10 119.04 162.56 130.80
2010M11 120.88 162.01 136.96
2010M12 121.58 157.79 142.68
2011M01 123.18 160.62 142.77
2011M02 119.25 153.11 139.80
2011M03 119.80 154.72 137.34
2011M04 124.39 155.20 139.98
2011M05 120.43 146.70 133.52
2011M06 117.96 143.40 133.12
2011M07 118.88 139.11 135.79
2011M08 106.93 123.94 127.72
2011M09 104.11 127.52 128.45
2011M10 103.20 125.84 130.07
2011M11 106.32 131.42 136.82
2011M12 105.45 132.15 138.17
2012M01 109.04 139.72 139.89
2012M02 115.58 150.73 143.01
2012M03 116.35 153.33 144.05
2012M04 114.46 144.05 147.95
2012M05 108.79 131.52 144.10
2012M06 106.68 125.75 143.44
2012M07 107.92 125.71 152.80
2012M08 111.01 133.97 152.20
2012M09 112.46 138.23 151.76
2012M10 113.81 134.87 157.48
2012M11 113.33 131.72 155.87
2012M12 117.92 137.13 162.62
2013M01 121.27 141.63 169.66
2013M02 120.06 133.23 167.45
2013M03 118.74 130.74 163.54
2013M04 116.25 126.05 162.52
2013M05 119.44 127.65 155.86
2013M06 112.01 114.18 148.67
2013M07 112.21 108.56 152.40
2013M08 113.32 115.24 155.91
2013M09 117.78 123.46 153.96
2013M10 120.51 124.70 153.08
2013M11 ND 123.80 154.04
2013M12 ND ND ND

Taiwan, India, Indonesia, Korea, and China

Date Taiwan (Jan. 2007 = 100) India (Jan. 2007 = 100) Indonesia (Jan. 2007 = 100) Korea (Jan. 2007 = 100) China (Jan. 2007 = 100)
2007M01 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
2007M02 100.04 101.13 99.76 104.03 100.12
2007M03 98.43 91.95 100.22 103.80 106.08
2007M04 102.23 96.38 109.68 110.00 125.48
2007M05 103.48 101.23 115.39 117.09 144.85
2007M06 109.63 102.51 119.29 127.19 142.34
2007M07 119.75 109.08 129.18 138.59 142.47
2007M08 112.05 105.69 121.18 131.59 172.00
2007M09 115.74 114.75 127.73 136.24 190.14
2007M10 122.91 132.30 143.93 145.34 206.61
2007M11 112.60 137.73 149.85 139.56 186.79
2007M12 106.32 141.79 154.39 138.05 179.84
2008M01 101.38 138.20 148.66 125.60 179.00
2008M02 102.36 126.77 151.44 122.50 157.95
2008M03 108.00 113.26 139.37 119.71 138.89
2008M04 113.61 116.50 128.99 128.81 120.52
2008M05 114.02 121.18 136.56 133.90 125.99
2008M06 104.67 107.25 133.89 127.47 106.27
2008M07 91.21 98.08 127.36 113.80 99.40
2008M08 90.48 105.28 120.15 111.48 88.56
2008M09 79.39 99.71 107.76 104.88 76.77
2008M10 64.53 75.44 77.47 87.13 68.60
2008M11 57.71 67.61 70.65 77.86 66.55
2008M12 57.54 68.03 73.07 80.83 69.21
2009M01 57.38 66.87 76.99 83.84 68.71
2009M02 57.29 65.70 74.23 82.64 78.23
2009M03 63.03 64.33 75.65 82.69 79.04
2009M04 73.25 78.03 88.74 95.86 87.33
2009M05 84.28 93.29 103.45 101.54 92.84
2009M06 82.91 105.71 114.26 101.16 100.40
2009M07 87.46 104.57 120.26 105.99 114.06
2009M08 87.73 110.23 132.66 114.40 109.10
2009M09 93.68 116.84 134.79 120.32 102.48
2009M10 97.11 120.32 138.86 118.22 106.73
2009M11 97.40 119.31 136.46 114.81 113.74
2009M12 100.28 122.21 140.31 119.39 114.23
2010M01 103.63 123.43 147.47 121.96 112.23
2010M02 95.31 115.73 143.46 115.93 105.96
2010M03 99.49 123.73 151.54 120.75 108.44
2010M04 103.04 126.42 162.98 125.45 108.32
2010M05 96.30 120.46 156.18 119.51 94.43
2010M06 94.48 123.71 160.54 122.67 90.15
2010M07 97.75 127.63 167.58 125.51 88.45
2010M08 100.88 129.98 172.99 127.76 93.52
2010M09 102.88 138.39 187.76 131.65 93.84
2010M10 105.06 144.81 202.35 137.01 104.38
2010M11 106.85 143.92 206.62 139.55 105.49
2010M12 112.31 142.50 206.46 145.19 100.96
2011M01 114.79 137.93 199.44 151.65 98.14
2011M02 111.87 128.98 194.18 145.21 101.88
2011M03 109.73 131.99 200.28 145.20 104.36
2011M04 113.39 139.09 211.04 156.11 106.28
2011M05 114.02 131.05 214.93 153.84 100.29
2011M06 111.95 130.36 214.20 150.42 96.09
2011M07 111.11 133.13 226.62 155.89 98.39
2011M08 99.34 120.76 221.58 135.54 91.97
2011M09 94.50 119.38 209.20 129.85 87.27
2011M10 93.99 120.30 202.67 132.38 85.18
2011M11 93.10 119.17 210.92 134.77 87.14
2011M12 89.18 114.13 212.57 135.09 79.78
2012M01 91.84 116.97 221.27 137.10 79.82
2012M02 100.60 127.55 222.91 145.24 83.93
2012M03 102.57 124.54 226.48 146.70 84.57
2012M04 97.52 123.59 234.29 144.71 83.60
2012M05 94.14 117.25 228.03 136.77 84.73
2012M06 91.40 119.69 216.75 134.03 80.97
2012M07 91.97 123.07 227.67 132.45 76.94
2012M08 94.82 125.74 231.62 139.13 75.00
2012M09 97.38 129.61 235.70 142.20 73.44
2012M10 95.18 133.87 242.59 140.82 74.50
2012M11 92.84 133.52 243.58 138.10 72.46
2012M12 97.70 138.48 241.74 143.11 75.37
2013M01 99.29 142.12 247.85 144.00 81.98
2013M02 101.45 139.19 258.29 143.55 84.44
2013M03 101.18 136.92 271.56 144.30 81.46
2013M04 101.01 134.55 279.15 140.58 78.46
2013M05 105.86 142.79 287.10 143.15 80.33
2013M06 102.23 136.79 266.07 136.63 75.17
2013M07 103.67 140.94 260.70 135.71 71.43
2013M08 101.50 133.31 244.80 137.54 73.57
2013M09 104.88 140.35 245.06 143.87 77.52
2013M10 107.06 146.55 253.10 147.16 77.57
2013M11 107.34 151.58 249.51 147.86 76.25
2013M12 ND ND ND ND ND

ND No data

* MSCI EME local currency stock index. Return to table

Source: Bloomberg and MSCI.

Chart 6: Credit to Private Sector*

Date Change from 2007 to 2010 (Percent of GDP) Change from 2010 to 2013:Q1 (Percent of GDP)
China 36.13 26.14
Korea 18.42 13.58
Malaysia 14.18 13.23
Brazil 11.21 16.20
Thailand 7.82 18.93
India 5.17 3.36
Indonesia 0.85 7.13
Mexico 1.45 2.17

* Total credit to the nonfinancial private sector as a percent of nominal GDP. Return to text

Source: Staff calculations based on data from Bank for International Settlements and Haver

Chart 7: Asian Real House Prices*

China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Taiwan

Date China (Jan 2007 = 100) Hong Kong (Jan 2007 = 100) Korea (Jan 2007 = 100) Taiwan (Jan 2007 = 100)
2007M01 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
2007M02 100.20 103.47 99.73 100.00
2007M03 100.32 102.51 99.73 100.00
2007M04 100.81 104.12 99.50 102.77
2007M05 100.93 105.68 99.37 102.77
2007M06 101.06 106.49 99.21 102.77
2007M07 101.46 107.41 99.23 104.33
2007M08 101.79 108.54 99.39 104.33
2007M09 103.67 109.67 99.20 104.33
2007M10 105.11 111.22 98.97 102.72
2007M11 105.26 115.54 98.71 102.72
2007M12 104.97 119.61 98.49 102.72
2008M01 104.96 125.63 98.71 103.08
2008M02 103.22 126.27 98.68 103.08
2008M03 103.53 127.04 98.85 103.08
2008M04 103.26 124.82 99.21 104.59
2008M05 103.47 125.88 98.95 104.59
2008M06 103.26 125.18 98.65 104.59
2008M07 103.24 122.76 98.43 105.26
2008M08 103.35 122.64 98.86 105.26
2008M09 103.23 123.15 99.09 105.26
2008M10 103.05 115.12 98.85 106.03
2008M11 103.09 103.73 98.22 106.03
2008M12 103.06 104.05 97.53 106.03
2009M01 102.52 106.12 97.33 106.61
2009M02 103.09 107.57 96.45 106.61
2009M03 102.80 108.53 95.84 106.61
2009M04 103.06 112.82 95.67 104.54
2009M05 103.69 116.10 95.74 104.54
2009M06 104.45 120.72 95.78 104.54
2009M07 105.60 123.71 95.76 104.06
2009M08 106.40 129.24 95.79 104.06
2009M09 106.97 130.56 96.49 104.06
2009M10 107.83 129.31 96.87 106.58
2009M11 108.90 129.77 96.45 106.58
2009M12 110.36 131.73 96.28 106.58
2010M01 112.27 134.98 96.12 109.24
2010M02 113.29 136.64 96.31 109.24
2010M03 114.54 139.40 96.49 109.24
2010M04 115.67 142.09 96.29 112.85
2010M05 115.74 141.31 96.18 112.85
2010M06 115.79 142.10 96.07 112.85
2010M07 115.35 150.06 95.81 119.72
2010M08 114.81 153.63 95.39 119.72
2010M09 114.92 154.04 94.85 119.72
2010M10 114.36 153.59 94.82 119.03
2010M11 113.44 156.18 95.18 119.03
2010M12 113.75 154.91 95.26 119.03
2011M01 114.67 160.16 95.06 120.14
2011M02 114.74 165.08 95.32 120.14
2011M03 114.40 167.18 95.91 120.14
2011M04 114.39 170.07 96.56 127.25
2011M05 113.95 171.19 96.98 127.25
2011M06 113.21 172.40 97.05 127.25
2011M07 112.73 170.50 96.97 129.37
2011M08 112.55 172.99 96.94 129.37
2011M09 112.22 173.03 97.75 129.37
2011M10 111.82 165.89 98.09 124.17
2011M11 111.64 164.19 97.88 124.17
2011M12 111.47 162.78 97.77 124.17
2012M01 110.48 160.43 97.97 126.63
2012M02 111.37 164.15 97.95 126.63
2012M03 109.98 170.72 98.16 126.63
2012M04 109.58 175.83 98.16 132.66
2012M05 109.21 179.51 97.95 132.66
2012M06 109.34 181.19 97.79 132.66
2012M07 109.34 186.28 97.85 124.85
2012M08 109.02 190.35 97.54 124.85
2012M09 108.82 195.59 96.99 124.85
2012M10 108.83 195.15 96.74 133.35
2012M11 108.76 196.55 96.53 133.35
2012M12 108.64 197.15 96.41 133.35
2013M01 108.97 200.86 96.30 136.79
2013M02 109.80 205.88 96.18 136.79
2013M03 110.98 205.44 96.24 136.79
2013M04 111.59 203.76 96.20 140.63
2013M05 112.58 204.95 96.12 140.63
2013M06 112.99 206.45 95.97 140.63
2013M07 113.56 207.17 95.77 141.08
2013M08 114.17 212.80 ND 141.08
2013M09 114.13 ND ND 141.08

Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand

Date Indonesia (Jan 2007 = 100) Malaysia (Jan 2007 = 100) Singapore (Jan 2007 = 100) Thailand** (Jan 2007 = 100)
2007M01 100.00 100.00 100.00 ND
2007M02 100.00 100.00 100.00 ND
2007M03 100.00 100.00 100.00 ND
2007M04 99.21 100.27 106.78 ND
2007M05 99.21 100.27 106.78 ND
2007M06 99.21 100.27 106.78 ND
2007M07 98.26 101.20 113.33 ND
2007M08 98.26 101.20 113.33 ND
2007M09 98.26 101.20 113.33 ND
2007M10 97.45 100.64 119.06 ND
2007M11 97.45 100.64 119.06 ND
2007M12 97.45 100.64 119.06 ND
2008M01 95.70 101.70 121.79 100.00
2008M02 95.70 101.70 121.79 100.00
2008M03 95.70 101.70 121.79 100.00
2008M04 92.96 99.64 119.28 96.40
2008M05 92.96 99.64 119.28 96.40
2008M06 92.96 99.64 119.28 96.40
2008M07 90.18 98.01 115.16 99.72
2008M08 90.18 98.01 115.16 99.72
2008M09 90.18 98.01 115.16 99.72
2008M10 89.66 97.35 107.29 106.25
2008M11 89.66 97.35 107.29 106.25
2008M12 89.66 97.35 107.29 106.25
2009M01 90.08 98.70 93.03 109.60
2009M02 90.08 98.70 93.03 109.60
2009M03 90.08 98.70 93.03 109.60
2009M04 89.84 100.87 89.31 114.85
2009M05 89.84 100.87 89.31 114.85
2009M06 89.84 100.87 89.31 114.85
2009M07 89.75 101.72 102.97 115.97
2009M08 89.75 101.72 102.97 115.97
2009M09 89.75 101.72 102.97 115.97
2009M10 89.35 102.90 110.05 115.57
2009M11 89.35 102.90 110.05 115.57
2009M12 89.35 102.90 110.05 115.57
2010M01 89.06 102.93 115.29 114.44
2010M02 89.06 102.93 115.29 114.44
2010M03 89.06 102.93 115.29 114.44
2010M04 88.56 105.35 119.86 115.66
2010M05 88.56 105.35 119.86 115.66
2010M06 88.56 105.35 119.86 115.66
2010M07 87.10 107.52 122.38 112.81
2010M08 87.10 107.52 122.38 112.81
2010M09 87.10 107.52 122.38 112.81
2010M10 86.45 109.12 124.36 119.28
2010M11 86.45 109.12 124.36 119.28
2010M12 86.45 109.12 124.36 119.28
2011M01 87.07 109.14 124.84 121.77
2011M02 87.07 109.14 124.84 121.77
2011M03 87.07 109.14 124.84 121.77
2011M04 87.42 112.72 125.89 120.21
2011M05 87.42 112.72 125.89 120.21
2011M06 87.42 112.72 125.89 120.21
2011M07 87.03 114.12 125.89 118.57
2011M08 87.03 114.12 125.89 118.57
2011M09 87.03 114.12 125.89 118.57
2011M10 87.19 116.29 124.80 119.87
2011M11 87.19 116.29 124.80 119.87
2011M12 87.19 116.29 124.80 119.87
2012M01 86.96 119.61 123.00 125.49
2012M02 86.96 119.61 123.00 125.49
2012M03 86.96 119.61 123.00 125.49
2012M04 86.75 123.20 122.23 120.44
2012M05 86.75 123.20 122.23 120.44
2012M06 86.75 123.20 122.23 120.44
2012M07 86.84 125.83 122.12 118.15
2012M08 86.84 125.83 122.12 118.15
2012M09 86.84 125.83 122.12 118.15
2012M10 89.14 128.83 123.36 121.83
2012M11 89.14 128.83 123.36 121.83
2012M12 89.14 128.83 123.36 121.83
2013M01 91.71 130.53 122.41 128.09
2013M02 91.71 130.53 122.41 128.09
2013M03 91.71 130.53 122.41 128.09
2013M04 92.06 130.53 125.22 125.40
2013M05 92.06 130.53 125.22 125.40
2013M06 92.06 130.53 125.22 125.40
2013M07 ND ND 124.59 127.74
2013M08 ND ND 124.59 127.74
2013M09 ND ND 124.59 127.74

ND No data

* Nominal house prices deflated by CPI. Return to text

** Series indexed to start date, March 2008. Return to table

Source: CEIC and Haver.

Chart 8: EME Bond and Equity Fund Flows*

Date 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (Percent) Latin America (Billions of dollars) Emerging Asia (Billions of dollars)
2007M01 4.75 1.32 7.51
2007M02 4.72 1.64 2.05
2007M03 4.56 -1.48 -6.26
2007M04 4.68 2.26 4.75
2007M05 4.74 3.43 -3.73
2007M06 5.10 4.18 -1.37
2007M07 4.99 2.71 8.18
2007M08 4.68 -0.78 -2.13
2007M09 4.51 2.76 11.72
2007M10 4.52 4.53 14.63
2007M11 4.14 -0.19 -3.48
2007M12 4.09 1.50 2.55
2008M01 3.72 -4.10 -13.24
2008M02 3.73 1.93 0.95
2008M03 3.48 -1.20 -5.06
2008M04 3.65 2.57 7.50
2008M05 3.87 4.23 4.29
2008M06 4.08 -2.69 -8.74
2008M07 3.97 -2.35 -3.89
2008M08 3.88 -3.28 -5.31
2008M09 3.68 -5.43 -7.44
2008M10 3.78 -6.03 -9.37
2008M11 3.48 -1.65 -1.84
2008M12 2.39 -0.63 0.20
2009M01 2.46 -0.02 0.51
2009M02 2.85 -0.39 -3.65
2009M03 2.80 -0.53 -0.51
2009M04 2.90 1.85 6.06
2009M05 3.30 5.44 10.58
2009M06 3.70 1.19 5.76
2009M07 3.53 1.97 7.29
2009M08 3.57 1.78 2.33
2009M09 3.39 3.13 3.19
2009M10 3.36 6.02 7.71
2009M11 3.38 3.55 6.32
2009M12 3.59 3.27 5.85
2010M01 3.71 2.53 3.49
2010M02 3.68 0.82 0.62
2010M03 3.72 3.72 7.10
2010M04 3.82 3.03 6.01
2010M05 3.40 -1.57 -3.49
2010M06 3.19 2.46 4.94
2010M07 2.98 4.19 8.88
2010M08 2.68 3.88 4.95
2010M09 2.64 5.64 11.95
2010M10 2.51 9.08 13.03
2010M11 2.74 4.32 10.21
2010M12 3.28 2.90 5.29
2011M01 3.36 1.47 -0.15
2011M02 3.56 -4.03 -10.92
2011M03 3.40 -0.71 -3.13
2011M04 3.43 4.01 8.10
2011M05 3.15 2.29 1.64
2011M06 2.99 1.32 3.00
2011M07 2.98 1.78 2.69
2011M08 2.29 -3.87 -9.83
2011M09 1.96 -2.90 -5.64
2011M10 2.13 -0.82 -0.21
2011M11 2.00 -0.95 -3.16
2011M12 1.97 -1.75 -5.00
2012M01 1.93 4.55 8.91
2012M02 1.96 5.02 7.76
2012M03 2.16 2.96 2.33
2012M04 2.03 1.85 -0.39
2012M05 1.78 -0.79 -3.91
2012M06 1.61 0.95 -1.89
2012M07 1.50 2.65 1.49
2012M08 1.67 2.12 0.86
2012M09 1.70 5.11 3.63
2012M10 1.72 5.50 7.11
2012M11 1.65 2.57 8.25
2012M12 1.71 5.30 15.79
2013M01 1.88 8.62 22.62
2013M02 1.97 4.49 9.09
2013M03 1.94 1.16 2.31
2013M04 1.73 2.37 -1.39
2013M05 1.92 -0.10 0.12
2013M06 2.29 -10.62 -19.47
2013M07 2.56 -2.66 -2.54
2013M08 2.73 -5.17 -10.08
2013M09 2.80 -1.50 0.60
2013M10 2.60 -1.91 2.42
2013M11 2.59 ND ND
2013M12 ND ND ND

ND No data

* Flows to EME-dedicated bond and equity funds. Return to text

Source: Bloomberg and Emerging Portfolio Fund Research.

Last update: November 4, 2013