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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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Federal Reserve Board of Governors

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Exhibit 1: U.S. Household Saving Rate

Period Percent
2000:Q1 3.1
2000:Q2 3.1
2000:Q3 3.1
2000:Q4 2.4
2001:Q1 2.8
2001:Q2 2.1
2001:Q3 4.2
2001:Q4 1.6
2002:Q1 4.0
2002:Q2 4.0
2002:Q3 3.1
2002:Q4 3.1
2003:Q1 3.1
2003:Q2 3.5
2003:Q3 3.6
2003:Q4 3.6
2004:Q1 3.3
2004:Q2 3.8
2004:Q3 3.5
2004:Q4 3.8
2005:Q1 1.8
2005:Q2 1.5
2005:Q3 1.3
2005:Q4 1.6
2006:Q1 2.4
2006:Q2 2.7
2006:Q3 2.5
2006:Q4 2.8
2007:Q1 2.6
2007:Q2 2.3
2007:Q3 2.1
2007:Q4 2.5
2008:Q1 4.2
2008:Q2 6.2
2008:Q3 4.9
2008:Q4 6.2
2009:Q1 5.7
2009:Q2 6.2
2009:Q3 4.4
2009:Q4 4.3
2010:Q1 4.9
2010:Q2 5.6
2010:Q3 5.6
2010:Q4 5.2
2011:Q1 5.0
2011:Q2 4.8
2011:Q3 3.8

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.


 

Exhibit 2: U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public

Percent of GDP

Period Actual Projection
1940 42.7 ND
1941 43.3 ND
1942 62.0 ND
1943 77.1 ND
1944 95.7 ND
1945 112.7 ND
1946 102.6 ND
1947 90.4 ND
1948 79.9 ND
1949 81.4 ND
1950 73.7 ND
1951 63.7 ND
1952 61.8 ND
1953 60.2 ND
1954 60.7 ND
1955 55.5 ND
1956 51.2 ND
1957 48.1 ND
1958 49.5 ND
1959 47.0 ND
1960 44.8 ND
1961 44.6 ND
1962 42.9 ND
1963 41.4 ND
1964 39.0 ND
1965 36.5 ND
1966 33.7 ND
1967 33.4 ND
1968 31.2 ND
1969 28.5 ND
1970 28.2 ND
1971 27.7 ND
1972 26.8 ND
1973 24.8 ND
1974 24.6 ND
1975 26.6 ND
1976 28.1 ND
1977 27.8 ND
1978 26.8 ND
1979 25.7 ND
1980 26.2 ND
1981 26.3 ND
1982 30.0 ND
1983 33.4 ND
1984 34.5 ND
1985 37.1 ND
1986 39.8 ND
1987 40.7 ND
1988 40.9 ND
1989 41.0 ND
1990 42.8 ND
1991 46.1 ND
1992 48.3 ND
1993 49.5 ND
1994 49.2 ND
1995 49.2 ND
1996 47.9 ND
1997 45.3 ND
1998 42.3 ND
1999 38.6 ND
2000 34.5 ND
2001 32.5 ND
2002 33.6 ND
2003 35.6 ND
2004 36.8 ND
2005 36.9 ND
2006 36.5 ND
2007 36.2 ND
2008 40.3 ND
2009 53.5 ND
2010 62.1 ND
2011 67.3 67.3
2012 ND 71.4
2013 ND 74.5
2014 ND 75.4
2015 ND 74.7
2016 ND 75.4
2017 ND 76.3
2018 ND 77.3
2019 ND 78.6
2020 ND 80.2
2021 ND 82.0
2022 ND 83.6
2023 ND 86.1
2024 ND 89.5
2025 ND 93.0
2026 ND 96.4
2027 ND 100.8
2028 ND 104.3
2029 ND 108.7
2030 ND 114.0
2031 ND 118.5
2032 ND 123.8
2033 ND 129.2
2034 ND 134.6
2035 ND 140.1

Note: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations using Congressional Budget Office projections.

ND No data  Return to table


 

Exhibit 3: Real GDP

Output Growth

Quarterly

4-quarter percent change

Period Asian emerging market economies Other emerging market economies Advanced economies
2005:Q1 7.34 4.91 2.15
2005:Q2 7.56 5.03 2.36
2005:Q3 7.84 4.68 2.54
2005:Q4 8.36 4.81 2.66
2006:Q1 9.31 5.72 2.97
2006:Q2 9.42 5.62 3.00
2006:Q3 9.18 5.92 2.56
2006:Q4 9.16 5.84 2.78
2007:Q1 9.93 5.70 2.53
2007:Q2 10.43 6.03 2.51
2007:Q3 10.43 5.93 2.78
2007:Q4 10.20 6.32 2.45
2008:Q1 9.15 6.50 1.91
2008:Q2 8.24 5.89 1.00
2008:Q3 7.05 5.03 -0.41
2008:Q4 4.22 0.24 -2.98
2009:Q1 3.37 -4.19 -5.46
2009:Q2 4.78 -5.06 -5.16
2009:Q3 6.70 -3.89 -4.11
2009:Q4 9.13 0.40 -1.20
2010:Q1 10.81 5.14 2.20
2010:Q2 9.51 6.45 2.90
2010:Q3 8.55 5.17 3.20
2010:Q4 8.22 5.11 2.60
2011:Q1 7.76 5.06 1.88
2011:Q2 7.78 4.19 1.27

Note: GDP weighted aggregate. Advanced economies consist of Australia, Canada, the euro area, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Asian emerging market economies consist of China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. Other emerging market economies consist of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela.

Source: Country sources via Haver; International Monetary Fund; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.


 

Level of Output

Quarterly

2005:Q1 = 100

Period Asian emerging market economies Other emerging market economies Advanced economies
2005:Q1 100.00 100.00 100.00
2005:Q2 101.71 101.48 100.69
2005:Q3 103.97 102.40 101.45
2005:Q4 106.41 103.88 102.02
2006:Q1 109.34 105.74 102.97
2006:Q2 111.33 107.25 103.70
2006:Q3 113.60 108.53 104.04
2006:Q4 116.29 110.03 104.86
2007:Q1 120.56 111.90 105.59
2007:Q2 123.40 113.85 106.33
2007:Q3 125.96 115.18 106.96
2007:Q4 128.76 117.27 107.46
2008:Q1 132.64 119.51 107.65
2008:Q2 134.76 120.93 107.41
2008:Q3 136.19 121.35 106.55
2008:Q4 135.85 117.89 104.29
2009:Q1 138.50 114.40 101.75
2009:Q2 142.72 114.73 101.84
2009:Q3 146.91 116.62 102.14
2009:Q4 149.82 118.45 102.98
2010:Q1 153.50 120.06 103.98
2010:Q2 156.25 122.02 104.82
2010:Q3 159.54 122.65 105.41
2010:Q4 162.24 124.60 105.70
2011:Q1 166.25 126.21 106.03
2011:Q2 169.38 127.20 106.24

Note: GDP weighted aggregate. Advanced economies consist of Australia, Canada, the euro area, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Asian emerging market economies consist of China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. Other emerging market economies consist of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela.

Source: Country sources via Haver; International Monetary Fund; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.


 

Exhibit 4: Exports and Trade Balance

Exports as a share of GDP

Percent

Period China Other Emerging Asia* Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia*
1995 20.49 23.65 114.16
1996 17.70 23.23 108.06
1997 19.26 25.36 104.14
1998 18.07 31.48 110.16
1999 17.99 28.94 114.03
2000 20.79 31.77 122.66
2001 20.09 29.02 114.78
2002 22.40 28.40 118.48
2003 26.71 28.79 131.05
2004 30.72 31.59 143.73
2005 33.76 31.35 155.03
2006 35.71 31.84 159.07
2007 34.87 30.85 151.73
2008 31.65 34.12 156.16
2009 24.08 29.37 135.42
2010 26.62 30.97 147.98

* GDP weighted average.  Return to table

Source: Haver, CEIC, and National Statistical Offices.


 

2010 Trade Balance** as a share of GDP

Economy Percent
Singapore 28.06
Malaysia 17.81
Thailand 6.75
Taiwan 6.70
Hong Kong 5.61
China 3.92
Korea 3.02
Indonesia 3.01
Philippines -4.01
India -5.39

** Goods and services.  Return to text

Source: Haver.


 

Exhibit 5: Private Consumption as a Share of GDP

Percent of GDP

Period China Other emerging Asia* Advanced economies**
2000 46.44 58.31 62.50
2001 45.34 59.79 63.29
2002 44.04 59.81 63.49
2003 42.19 58.98 63.20
2004 40.56 57.29 62.72
2005 38.82 56.98 62.84
2006 36.94 56.66 62.61
2007 35.97 56.23 62.17
2008 35.12 57.04 62.41
2009 35.11 57.01 63.54
2010 33.22 55.51 63.39

GDP weighted average of Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand.  Return to table

GDP weighted average of Canada, the euro area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.  Return to table

Source: Haver, CEIC, and National Statistical Offices.

Last update: August 2, 2013