Accessible Version
Accessible Version
Figure 1. Measures of Labor Market Slack
| Period | Unemployment gap (Percentage points) | Difficulty finding jobs (Index) | Ease in filling jobs (Index) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990:Q1 | -0.58 | -0.54 | 0.01 |
| 1990:Q2 | -0.57 | -0.37 | 0.04 |
| 1990:Q3 | -0.16 | -0.2 | 0.28 |
| 1990:Q4 | 0.26 | 0.39 | 0.63 |
| 1991:Q1 | 0.78 | 0.66 | 0.95 |
| 1991:Q2 | 1.01 | 0.83 | 1.15 |
| 1991:Q3 | 1.13 | 0.96 | 1.07 |
| 1991:Q4 | 1.36 | 1.37 | 1.36 |
| 1992:Q1 | 1.69 | 1.44 | 1.32 |
| 1992:Q2 | 1.92 | 1.18 | 0.95 |
| 1992:Q3 | 1.96 | 1.3 | 1.02 |
| 1992:Q4 | 1.79 | 1.25 | 0.94 |
| 1993:Q1 | 1.62 | 1.02 | 0.84 |
| 1993:Q2 | 1.56 | 1.05 | 0.86 |
| 1993:Q3 | 1.29 | 0.98 | 0.75 |
| 1993:Q4 | 1.12 | 0.83 | 0.46 |
| 1994:Q1 | 1.16 | 0.55 | -0.06 |
| 1994:Q2 | 0.79 | 0.34 | 0.13 |
| 1994:Q3 | 0.62 | 0.25 | -0.2 |
| 1994:Q4 | 0.25 | 0.06 | -0.21 |
| 1995:Q1 | 0.17 | -0.18 | -0.49 |
| 1995:Q2 | 0.4 | -0.19 | -0.38 |
| 1995:Q3 | 0.43 | -0.23 | -0.48 |
| 1995:Q4 | 0.35 | -0.1 | -0.51 |
| 1996:Q1 | 0.27 | -0.13 | -0.54 |
| 1996:Q2 | 0.29 | -0.33 | -0.74 |
| 1996:Q3 | 0.11 | -0.47 | -0.81 |
| 1996:Q4 | 0.13 | -0.48 | -0.72 |
| 1997:Q1 | 0.05 | -0.81 | -0.75 |
| 1997:Q2 | -0.13 | -0.91 | -0.74 |
| 1997:Q3 | -0.21 | -1.06 | -1.18 |
| 1997:Q4 | -0.4 | -1.03 | -1.19 |
| 1998:Q1 | -0.49 | -1.39 | -0.96 |
| 1998:Q2 | -0.67 | -1.48 | -1.22 |
| 1998:Q3 | -0.56 | -1.51 | -1.12 |
| 1998:Q4 | -0.65 | -1.34 | -1.5 |
| 1999:Q1 | -0.74 | -1.65 | -1.53 |
| 1999:Q2 | -0.73 | -1.66 | -1.44 |
| 1999:Q3 | -0.83 | -1.72 | -1.23 |
| 1999:Q4 | -0.92 | -1.73 | -1.71 |
| 2000:Q1 | -1.01 | -1.94 | -1.74 |
| 2000:Q2 | -1.11 | -1.92 | -2.03 |
| 2000:Q3 | -1.01 | -1.99 | -1.97 |
| 2000:Q4 | -1.1 | -1.8 | -1.97 |
| 2001:Q1 | -0.8 | -1.57 | -1.36 |
| 2001:Q2 | -0.6 | -1.26 | -0.82 |
| 2001:Q3 | -0.2 | -0.89 | -0.92 |
| 2001:Q4 | 0.5 | -0.15 | 0.12 |
| 2002:Q1 | 0.7 | -0.15 | 0.24 |
| 2002:Q2 | 0.8 | -0.19 | 0.06 |
| 2002:Q3 | 0.7 | 0.01 | 0.24 |
| 2002:Q4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.26 |
| 2003:Q1 | 0.9 | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| 2003:Q2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.69 |
| 2003:Q3 | 1.1 | 0.66 | 0.4 |
| 2003:Q4 | 0.8 | 0.48 | 0.24 |
| 2004:Q1 | 0.7 | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| 2004:Q2 | 0.6 | 0.18 | 0 |
| 2004:Q3 | 0.4 | 0.06 | -0.11 |
| 2004:Q4 | 0.4 | 0.11 | -0.35 |
| 2005:Q1 | 0.3 | -0.18 | -0.25 |
| 2005:Q2 | 0.1 | -0.22 | -0.16 |
| 2005:Q3 | 0 | -0.2 | -0.27 |
| 2005:Q4 | 0 | -0.18 | -0.35 |
| 2006:Q1 | -0.3 | -0.56 | -0.56 |
| 2006:Q2 | -0.3 | -0.62 | -0.95 |
| 2006:Q3 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.6 |
| 2006:Q4 | -0.5 | -0.45 | -0.4 |
| 2007:Q1 | -0.5 | -0.68 | -0.65 |
| 2007:Q2 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.69 |
| 2007:Q3 | -0.3 | -0.56 | -0.56 |
| 2007:Q4 | -0.21 | -0.32 | -0.08 |
| 2008:Q1 | -0.03 | -0.21 | 0.09 |
| 2008:Q2 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| 2008:Q3 | 0.92 | 0.45 | 0.64 |
| 2008:Q4 | 1.78 | 0.94 | 0.96 |
| 2009:Q1 | 3.15 | 1.33 | 1.73 |
| 2009:Q2 | 4.02 | 1.32 | 1.79 |
| 2009:Q3 | 4.17 | 1.43 | 1.94 |
| 2009:Q4 | 4.34 | 1.55 | 1.81 |
| 2010:Q1 | 4.05 | 1.42 | 1.84 |
| 2010:Q2 | 3.82 | 1.3 | 1.79 |
| 2010:Q3 | 3.68 | 1.38 | 1.57 |
| 2010:Q4 | 3.72 | 1.46 | 1.5 |
| 2011:Q1 | 3.07 | 1.34 | 1.16 |
| 2011:Q2 | 3.13 | 1.23 | 1.16 |
| 2011:Q3 | 3.12 | 1.42 | 1.09 |
| 2011:Q4 | 2.72 | 1.27 | 0.83 |
| 2012:Q1 | 2.22 | 1.06 | 0.79 |
Note: The CBO unemployment gap is the civilian unemployment rate less the CBO estimate of the NAIRU. Difficulty in finding jobs equals proportion of households believing jobs are hard to get minus proportion believing jobs are plentiful, as reported in the Conference Board survey. Ease in filling jobs equals 100 minus the percentage of firms in the NFIB survey reporting that jobs are difficult to fill. Both survey measures are demeaned and rescaled by their standard deviations.
As shown in the figure, shaded bars indicate periods of recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (1990:Q3-1991:Q1, 2001:Q1-2001:Q4, and 2007:Q4-2009:Q2).
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Congressional Budget Office; Conference Board; National Federation of Independent Business.
Figure 2. Projections of Unemployment
Percent
| Period | History | Survey of Professional Forecasters, median | FOMC central tendency | 70 percent confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010:Q1 | 9.8 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2010:Q2 | 9.6 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2010:Q3 | 9.5 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2010:Q4 | 9.6 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q1 | 9.0 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q2 | 9.1 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q3 | 9.1 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q4 | 8.7 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2012:Q1 | 8.2 | 8.20 | ND | ND |
| 2012:Q2 | ND | 8.10 | ND | 7.89 to 8.31 |
| 2012:Q3 | ND | 8.00 | ND | 7.63 to 8.36 |
| 2012:Q4 | ND | 7.90 | 7.8 to 8.0 | 7.37 to 8.40 |
| 2013:Q1 | ND | 7.90 | ND | 7.25 to 8.52 |
| 2013:Q2 | ND | 7.75 | ND | 7.00 to 8.49 |
| 2013:Q3 | ND | 7.60 | ND | 6.77 to 8.44 |
| 2013:Q4 | ND | 7.50 | 7.3 to 7.7 | 6.60 to 8.44 |
| 2014:Q1 | ND | 7.40 | ND | 6.46 to 8.46 |
| 2014:Q2 | ND | 7.30 | ND | 6.34 to 8.44 |
| 2014:Q3 | ND | 7.15 | ND | 6.17 to 8.36 |
| 2014:Q4 | ND | 7.00 | 6.7 to 7.4 | 6.00 to 8.25 |
FOMC central tendency for longer-run unemployment rate: 5.2 to 6.0
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Survey of Professional Forecasters, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Figure 3. Projections of PCE Inflation
4-quarter percent change
| Period | History | Survey of Professional Forecasters, median | FOMC central tendency | 70 percent confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010:Q1 | 2.38 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2010:Q2 | 1.99 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2010:Q3 | 1.48 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2010:Q4 | 1.28 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q1 | 1.78 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q2 | 2.53 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q3 | 2.87 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q4 | 2.67 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2012:Q1 | 2.30 | 2.30 | ND | ND |
| 2012:Q2 | ND | 1.98 | ND | 1.57 to 2.39 |
| 2012:Q3 | ND | 1.87 | ND | 1.21 to 2.55 |
| 2012:Q4 | ND | 2.07 | 1.9 to 2.0 | 1.23 to 2.97 |
| 2013:Q1 | ND | 2.02 | ND | 1.02 to 3.09 |
| 2013:Q2 | ND | 2.02 | ND | 0.98 to 3.11 |
| 2013:Q3 | ND | 2.02 | ND | 0.93 to 3.17 |
| 2013:Q4 | ND | 2.02 | 1.6 to 2.0 | 0.87 to 3.24 |
| 2014:Q1 | ND | 2.00 | ND | 0.81 to 3.23 |
| 2014:Q2 | ND | 2.05 | ND | 0.82 to 3.27 |
| 2014:Q3 | ND | 2.12 | ND | 0.86 to 3.35 |
| 2014:Q4 | ND | 2.17 | 1.7 to 2.0 | 0.86 to 3.37 |
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Survey of Professional Forecasters, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Figure 4. Distribution of Nominal Wage Changes
Percent probability
| Wage change (approximate percent change, March 2009 to March 2010) |
Percent probability | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 24 to 35 % less | 0.608 | 0.000 |
| 23 to 24 % less | 0.106 | 0.000 |
| 22 to 23 % less | 0.081 | 0.000 |
| 21 to 22 % less | 0.152 | 0.000 |
| 20 to 21 % less | 0.107 | 0.000 |
| 19 to 20 % less | 0.197 | 0.000 |
| 18 to 19 % less | 0.252 | 0.001 |
| 17 to 18 % less | 0.176 | 0.002 |
| 16 to 17 % less | 0.236 | 0.005 |
| 15 to 16 % less | 0.205 | 0.011 |
| 14 to 15 % less | 0.321 | 0.024 |
| 13 to 14 % less | 0.174 | 0.049 |
| 12 to 13 % less | 0.353 | 0.099 |
| 11 to 12 % less | 0.411 | 0.187 |
| 10 to 11 % less | 0.600 | 0.339 |
| 9 to 10 % less | 0.569 | 0.583 |
| 8 to 9 % less | 0.757 | 0.955 |
| 7 to 8 % less | 0.826 | 1.489 |
| 6 to 7 % less | 1.032 | 2.211 |
| 5 to 6 % less | 1.390 | 3.124 |
| 4 to 5 % less | 1.490 | 4.201 |
| 3 to 4 % less | 1.734 | 5.377 |
| 2 to 3 % less | 2.220 | 6.551 |
| 1 to 2 % less | 3.484 | 7.598 |
| < 1 % less | 5.141 | 8.381 |
| Almost no change | 19.658 | 8.649 |
| < 1 % more | 7.562 | 8.813 |
| 1 to 2 % more | 8.917 | 8.811 |
| 2 to 3 % more | 9.817 | 8.386 |
| 3 to 4 % more | 7.523 | 7.598 |
| 4 to 5 % more | 4.799 | 6.551 |
| 5 to 6 % more | 3.328 | 5.377 |
| 6 to 7 % more | 2.822 | 4.201 |
| 7 to 8 % more | 1.788 | 3.124 |
| 8 to 9 % more | 1.736 | 2.211 |
| 9 to 10 % more | 1.426 | 1.489 |
| 10 to 11 % more | 1.772 | 0.955 |
| 11 to 12 % more | 0.737 | 0.583 |
| 12 to 13 % more | 0.545 | 0.339 |
| 13 to 14 % more | 0.532 | 0.187 |
| 14 to 15 % more | 0.499 | 0.099 |
| 15 to 16 % more | 0.225 | 0.049 |
| 16 to 17 % more | 0.280 | 0.024 |
| 17 to 18 % more | 0.209 | 0.011 |
| 18 to 19 % more | 0.409 | 0.005 |
| 19 to 20 % more | 0.143 | 0.002 |
| 20 to 21 % more | 0.067 | 0.001 |
| 21 to 22 % more | 0.222 | 0.000 |
| 22 to 23 % more | 0.153 | 0.000 |
| 23 to 24 % more | 0.091 | 0.000 |
| 24 to 25 % more | 0.112 | 0.000 |
| 25 to 26 % more | 0.187 | 0.000 |
| 26 to 27 % more | 0.076 | 0.000 |
| 27 to 28 % more | 0.083 | 0.000 |
| 28 to 29 % more | 0.146 | 0.000 |
| 29 to 30 % more | 0.043 | 0.000 |
| 30 to 35 % more | 0.193 | 0.000 |
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 5. CPI Inflation and Inflation Expectations
Percent
| Period | Average CPI inflation over the next 10 years (SPF) | CPI, 4-quarter percent change |
|---|---|---|
| 1979:Q4 | 6.90 | ND |
| 1980:Q1 | ND | 12.54 |
| 1980:Q2 | 7.85 | ND |
| 1980:Q3 | ND | ND |
| 1980:Q4 | 8.25 | ND |
| 1981:Q1 | ND | 9.58 |
| 1981:Q2 | 7.80 | ND |
| 1981:Q3 | ND | ND |
| 1981:Q4 | 7.05 | ND |
| 1982:Q1 | ND | 4.44 |
| 1982:Q2 | 5.70 | ND |
| 1982:Q3 | ND | ND |
| 1982:Q4 | 5.65 | ND |
| 1983:Q1 | 5.30 | 3.23 |
| 1983:Q2 | ND | ND |
| 1983:Q3 | ND | ND |
| 1983:Q4 | 5.20 | ND |
| 1984:Q1 | 5.60 | 4.15 |
| 1984:Q2 | ND | ND |
| 1984:Q3 | ND | ND |
| 1984:Q4 | 5.20 | ND |
| 1985:Q1 | 4.35 | 3.51 |
| 1985:Q2 | ND | ND |
| 1985:Q3 | ND | ND |
| 1985:Q4 | 4.55 | ND |
| 1986:Q1 | 4.00 | 1.35 |
| 1986:Q2 | ND | ND |
| 1986:Q3 | ND | ND |
| 1986:Q4 | 4.00 | ND |
| 1987:Q1 | 4.20 | 4.41 |
| 1987:Q2 | ND | ND |
| 1987:Q3 | ND | ND |
| 1987:Q4 | 4.50 | ND |
| 1988:Q1 | 4.30 | 4.31 |
| 1988:Q2 | ND | ND |
| 1988:Q3 | ND | ND |
| 1988:Q4 | 4.35 | ND |
| 1989:Q1 | 4.25 | 4.63 |
| 1989:Q2 | ND | ND |
| 1989:Q3 | ND | ND |
| 1989:Q4 | 4.20 | ND |
| 1990:Q1 | 3.95 | 6.28 |
| 1990:Q2 | 4.21 | ND |
| 1990:Q3 | ND | ND |
| 1990:Q4 | 4.15 | ND |
| 1991:Q1 | 4.05 | 2.97 |
| 1991:Q2 | 4.08 | ND |
| 1991:Q3 | ND | ND |
| 1991:Q4 | 4.00 | ND |
| 1992:Q1 | 3.70 | 3.12 |
| 1992:Q2 | 3.90 | ND |
| 1992:Q3 | 3.75 | ND |
| 1992:Q4 | 3.60 | ND |
| 1993:Q1 | 3.50 | 2.77 |
| 1993:Q2 | 3.70 | ND |
| 1993:Q3 | 3.45 | ND |
| 1993:Q4 | 3.45 | ND |
| 1994:Q1 | 3.45 | 2.60 |
| 1994:Q2 | 3.50 | ND |
| 1994:Q3 | 3.50 | ND |
| 1994:Q4 | 3.50 | ND |
| 1995:Q1 | 3.30 | 2.63 |
| 1995:Q2 | 3.35 | ND |
| 1995:Q3 | 3.20 | ND |
| 1995:Q4 | 3.00 | ND |
| 1996:Q1 | 3.00 | 3.23 |
| 1996:Q2 | 3.00 | ND |
| 1996:Q3 | 3.00 | ND |
| 1996:Q4 | 3.00 | ND |
| 1997:Q1 | 3.00 | 1.89 |
| 1997:Q2 | 2.85 | ND |
| 1997:Q3 | 3.00 | ND |
| 1997:Q4 | 2.65 | ND |
| 1998:Q1 | 2.60 | 1.53 |
| 1998:Q2 | 2.50 | ND |
| 1998:Q3 | 2.50 | ND |
| 1998:Q4 | 2.50 | ND |
| 1999:Q1 | 2.30 | 2.62 |
| 1999:Q2 | 2.50 | ND |
| 1999:Q3 | 2.50 | ND |
| 1999:Q4 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2000:Q1 | 2.50 | 3.44 |
| 2000:Q2 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2000:Q3 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2000:Q4 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2001:Q1 | 2.50 | 1.87 |
| 2001:Q2 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2001:Q3 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2001:Q4 | 2.55 | ND |
| 2002:Q1 | 2.50 | 2.25 |
| 2002:Q2 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2002:Q3 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2002:Q4 | 2.45 | ND |
| 2003:Q1 | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| 2003:Q2 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2003:Q3 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2003:Q4 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2004:Q1 | 2.50 | 3.38 |
| 2004:Q2 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2004:Q3 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2004:Q4 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2005:Q1 | 2.45 | 3.67 |
| 2005:Q2 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2005:Q3 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2005:Q4 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2006:Q1 | 2.50 | 1.97 |
| 2006:Q2 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2006:Q3 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2006:Q4 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2007:Q1 | 2.35 | 4.03 |
| 2007:Q2 | 2.40 | ND |
| 2007:Q3 | 2.40 | ND |
| 2007:Q4 | 2.40 | ND |
| 2008:Q1 | 2.50 | 1.58 |
| 2008:Q2 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2008:Q3 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2008:Q4 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2009:Q1 | 2.40 | 1.48 |
| 2009:Q2 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2009:Q3 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2009:Q4 | 2.26 | ND |
| 2010:Q1 | 2.39 | 1.22 |
| 2010:Q2 | 2.40 | ND |
| 2010:Q3 | 2.30 | ND |
| 2010:Q4 | 2.20 | ND |
| 2011:Q1 | 2.30 | 3.34 |
| 2011:Q2 | 2.40 | ND |
| 2011:Q3 | 2.40 | ND |
| 2011:Q4 | 2.50 | ND |
| 2012:Q1 | 2.30 | 2.08 |
| 2012:Q2 | 2.48 | ND |
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Survey of Professional Forecasters, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Figure 6. Revisions to Professional Forecasts of GDP Growth
Percent change, annual rate
| Period | History | Blue Chip, March 2012 | Blue Chip, March 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 3.03 | ND | 3.1 |
| 2011 | 1.73 | ND | 3.0 |
| 2012 | 2.30 | 2.3 | 3.4 |
| 2013 | ND | 2.6 | 3.2 |
| 2014 | ND | 3.0 | 2.9 |
Note: Blue Chip survey projections are taken from Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a publication owned by Aspen Publishers. Copyright (c) 2012 by Aspen Publishers, Inc. (www.aspenpublishers.com). All rights reserved.
Figure 7. Forecasts for 3-month Treasury Bill Rates
Percent per annum
| Period | History | Blue Chip, March 2012 | Blue Chip, March 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 0.14 | ND | 0.4 |
| 2011 | 0.05 | ND | 1.7 |
| 2012 | 0.08 | 0.1 | 3.2 |
| 2013 | ND | 0.2 | 3.9 |
| 2014 | ND | 1.3 | 4.1 |
Note: Blue Chip survey projections are taken from Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a publication owned by Aspen Publishers. Copyright (c) 2012 by Aspen Publishers, Inc. (www.aspenpublishers.com). All rights reserved.
Figure 8. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Actions
Holdings of Treasury and Agency Securities*
| Period | Billions of dollars |
|---|---|
| 9 January 2008 | 728.20 |
| 16 January 2008 | 728.26 |
| 23 January 2008 | 723.32 |
| 30 January 2008 | 718.37 |
| 6 February 2008 | 713.38 |
| 13 February 2008 | 713.37 |
| 20 February 2008 | 713.36 |
| 27 February 2008 | 713.36 |
| 5 March 2008 | 713.39 |
| 12 March 2008 | 703.44 |
| 19 March 2008 | 660.48 |
| 26 March 2008 | 612.31 |
| 2 April 2008 | 581.24 |
| 9 April 2008 | 560.11 |
| 16 April 2008 | 548.63 |
| 23 April 2008 | 548.66 |
| 30 April 2008 | 548.69 |
| 7 May 2008 | 536.71 |
| 14 May 2008 | 515.66 |
| 21 May 2008 | 502.86 |
| 28 May 2008 | 491.09 |
| 4 June 2008 | 486.94 |
| 11 June 2008 | 482.07 |
| 18 June 2008 | 478.73 |
| 25 June 2008 | 478.80 |
| 2 July 2008 | 478.87 |
| 9 July 2008 | 478.95 |
| 16 July 2008 | 479.04 |
| 23 July 2008 | 479.12 |
| 30 July 2008 | 479.21 |
| 6 August 2008 | 479.33 |
| 13 August 2008 | 479.43 |
| 20 August 2008 | 479.54 |
| 27 August 2008 | 479.64 |
| 3 September 2008 | 479.73 |
| 10 September 2008 | 479.78 |
| 17 September 2008 | 479.84 |
| 24 September 2008 | 486.58 |
| 1 October 2008 | 491.12 |
| 8 October 2008 | 490.68 |
| 15 October 2008 | 490.66 |
| 22 October 2008 | 490.62 |
| 29 October 2008 | 490.09 |
| 5 November 2008 | 489.69 |
| 12 November 2008 | 489.41 |
| 19 November 2008 | 488.93 |
| 26 November 2008 | 488.63 |
| 3 December 2008 | 487.93 |
| 10 December 2008 | 492.06 |
| 17 December 2008 | 493.76 |
| 24 December 2008 | 496.89 |
| 31 December 2008 | 495.63 |
| 7 January 2009 | 494.98 |
| 14 January 2009 | 505.31 |
| 21 January 2009 | 505.47 |
| 28 January 2009 | 510.87 |
| 4 February 2009 | 512.27 |
| 11 February 2009 | 514.40 |
| 18 February 2009 | 573.63 |
| 25 February 2009 | 581.73 |
| 4 March 2009 | 581.76 |
| 11 March 2009 | 588.05 |
| 18 March 2009 | 759.47 |
| 25 March 2009 | 761.30 |
| 1 April 2009 | 782.58 |
| 8 April 2009 | 801.35 |
| 15 April 2009 | 943.18 |
| 22 April 2009 | 967.07 |
| 29 April 2009 | 983.36 |
| 6 May 2009 | 997.90 |
| 13 May 2009 | 1081.59 |
| 20 May 2009 | 1091.43 |
| 27 May 2009 | 1107.45 |
| 3 June 2009 | 1115.77 |
| 10 June 2009 | 1142.48 |
| 17 June 2009 | 1184.40 |
| 24 June 2009 | 1217.04 |
| 1 July 2009 | 1223.74 |
| 8 July 2009 | 1233.78 |
| 15 July 2009 | 1312.15 |
| 22 July 2009 | 1340.87 |
| 29 July 2009 | 1344.56 |
| 5 August 2009 | 1356.28 |
| 12 August 2009 | 1381.86 |
| 19 August 2009 | 1457.41 |
| 26 August 2009 | 1485.13 |
| 2 September 2009 | 1497.43 |
| 9 September 2009 | 1506.17 |
| 16 September 2009 | 1570.02 |
| 23 September 2009 | 1588.43 |
| 30 September 2009 | 1592.70 |
| 7 October 2009 | 1595.29 |
| 14 October 2009 | 1672.83 |
| 21 October 2009 | 1690.20 |
| 28 October 2009 | 1690.23 |
| 4 November 2009 | 1697.87 |
| 11 November 2009 | 1701.77 |
| 18 November 2009 | 1776.62 |
| 25 November 2009 | 1783.73 |
| 2 December 2009 | 1783.78 |
| 9 December 2009 | 1787.01 |
| 16 December 2009 | 1835.48 |
| 23 December 2009 | 1846.89 |
| 30 December 2009 | 1844.72 |
| 6 January 2010 | 1845.21 |
| 13 January 2010 | 1906.02 |
| 20 January 2010 | 1909.72 |
| 27 January 2010 | 1910.02 |
| 3 February 2010 | 1911.60 |
| 10 February 2010 | 1918.41 |
| 17 February 2010 | 1967.70 |
| 24 February 2010 | 1975.64 |
| 3 March 2010 | 1970.89 |
| 10 March 2010 | 1974.77 |
| 17 March 2010 | 2010.56 |
| 24 March 2010 | 2017.96 |
| 31 March 2010 | 2014.39 |
| 7 April 2010 | 2014.43 |
| 14 April 2010 | 2047.49 |
| 21 April 2010 | 2047.55 |
| 28 April 2010 | 2042.04 |
| 5 May 2010 | 2042.28 |
| 12 May 2010 | 2043.26 |
| 19 May 2010 | 2063.90 |
| 26 May 2010 | 2057.16 |
| 2 June 2010 | 2057.24 |
| 9 June 2010 | 2057.32 |
| 16 June 2010 | 2070.75 |
| 23 June 2010 | 2071.24 |
| 30 June 2010 | 2059.88 |
| 7 July 2010 | 2060.05 |
| 14 July 2010 | 2067.68 |
| 21 July 2010 | 2060.98 |
| 28 July 2010 | 2053.88 |
| 4 August 2010 | 2054.13 |
| 11 August 2010 | 2055.85 |
| 18 August 2010 | 2049.78 |
| 25 August 2010 | 2044.17 |
| 1 September 2010 | 2045.95 |
| 8 September 2010 | 2049.56 |
| 15 September 2010 | 2041.40 |
| 22 September 2010 | 2051.09 |
| 29 September 2010 | 2044.31 |
| 6 October 2010 | 2051.72 |
| 13 October 2010 | 2051.88 |
| 20 October 2010 | 2048.62 |
| 27 October 2010 | 2038.57 |
| 3 November 2010 | 2042.73 |
| 10 November 2010 | 2053.76 |
| 17 November 2010 | 2060.89 |
| 24 November 2010 | 2087.22 |
| 1 December 2010 | 2088.28 |
| 8 December 2010 | 2120.44 |
| 15 December 2010 | 2124.28 |
| 22 December 2010 | 2163.10 |
| 29 December 2010 | 2155.70 |
| 5 January 2011 | 2170.59 |
| 12 January 2011 | 2200.53 |
| 19 January 2011 | 2205.62 |
| 26 January 2011 | 2224.15 |
| 2 February 2011 | 2247.87 |
| 9 February 2011 | 2276.79 |
| 16 February 2011 | 2293.15 |
| 23 February 2011 | 2315.75 |
| 2 March 2011 | 2328.44 |
| 9 March 2011 | 2358.25 |
| 16 March 2011 | 2364.48 |
| 23 March 2011 | 2381.58 |
| 30 March 2011 | 2403.10 |
| 6 April 2011 | 2427.86 |
| 13 April 2011 | 2442.74 |
| 20 April 2011 | 2464.18 |
| 27 April 2011 | 2466.67 |
| 4 May 2011 | 2494.00 |
| 11 May 2011 | 2518.35 |
| 18 May 2011 | 2539.50 |
| 25 May 2011 | 2556.28 |
| 1 June 2011 | 2569.19 |
| 8 June 2011 | 2591.61 |
| 15 June 2011 | 2608.81 |
| 22 June 2011 | 2634.65 |
| 29 June 2011 | 2642.62 |
| 6 July 2011 | 2648.44 |
| 13 July 2011 | 2654.34 |
| 20 July 2011 | 2652.31 |
| 27 July 2011 | 2647.88 |
| 3 August 2011 | 2650.64 |
| 10 August 2011 | 2654.46 |
| 17 August 2011 | 2650.86 |
| 24 August 2011 | 2650.56 |
| 31 August 2011 | 2646.83 |
| 7 September 2011 | 2650.32 |
| 14 September 2011 | 2653.68 |
| 21 September 2011 | 2650.61 |
| 28 September 2011 | 2643.81 |
| 5 October 2011 | 2650.94 |
| 12 October 2011 | 2647.92 |
| 19 October 2011 | 2640.00 |
| 26 October 2011 | 2634.94 |
| 2 November 2011 | 2611.12 |
| 9 November 2011 | 2625.04 |
| 16 November 2011 | 2625.32 |
| 23 November 2011 | 2612.31 |
| 30 November 2011 | 2605.00 |
| 7 December 2011 | 2608.00 |
| 14 December 2011 | 2637.46 |
| 21 December 2011 | 2640.67 |
| 28 December 2011 | 2613.38 |
| 4 January 2012 | 2605.17 |
| 11 January 2012 | 2593.52 |
| 18 January 2012 | 2600.44 |
| 25 January 2012 | 2598.65 |
| 1 February 2012 | 2599.97 |
| 8 February 2012 | 2598.22 |
| 15 February 2012 | 2616.38 |
| 22 February 2012 | 2610.44 |
| 29 February 2012 | 2603.21 |
| 7 March 2012 | 2599.88 |
| 14 March 2012 | 2613.46 |
| 21 March 2012 | 2613.74 |
| 28 March 2012 | 2598.18 |
| 4 April 2012 | 2602.64 |
| 11 April 2012 | 2614.36 |
| 18 April 2012 | 2622.70 |
| 25 April 2012 | 2610.13 |
| 2 May 2012 | 2610.02 |
| 9 May 2012 | 2608.34 |
| 16 May 2012 | 2609.19 |
| 23 May 2012 | 2615.06 |
As shown in the figure, shaded bars indicate the first and second rounds of asset purchases, from January 5, 2009 to March 31, 2010, and from November 12, 2010 to June 30, 2011, respectively.
* Includes only securities held in the System Open Market Account. Return to text
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Treasury Holdings by Maturity
Billions of dollars
| Years to maturity | September 2011 (Before MEP) | June 2012 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|
| 0 to 3 | 548.57 | 170 |
| 3 to 6 | 495.64 | 561 |
| 6 to 30 | 618.90 | 934 |
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Figure 9. Estimated Effect of Balance Sheet Operations on the 10-year Treasury Term Premium
| Period | Basis points |
|---|---|
| 2008:Q3 | 0.00 |
| 2008:Q4 (Announcement of first round of of asset purchases) | -51.64 |
| 2009:Q1 | -52.26 |
| 2009:Q2 | -52.20 |
| 2009:Q3 | -50.78 |
| 2009:Q4 | -48.48 |
| 2010:Q1 | -45.92 |
| 2010:Q2 | -43.00 |
| 2010:Q3 | -40.19 |
| 2010:Q4 (Announcement of second round of of asset purchases) | -58.52 |
| 2011:Q1 | -56.23 |
| 2011:Q2 | -52.94 |
| 2011:Q3 (Announcement of maturity extension program) | -70.45 |
| 2011:Q4 | -67.04 |
| 2012:Q1 | -63.69 |
| 2012:Q2 | -59.60 |
| 2012:Q3 | -55.30 |
| 2012:Q4 | -50.82 |
| 2013:Q1 | -46.51 |
| 2013:Q2 | -42.45 |
| 2013:Q3 | -38.73 |
| 2013:Q4 | -35.27 |
| 2014:Q1 | -32.09 |
| 2014:Q2 | -29.22 |
| 2014:Q3 | -26.71 |
| 2014:Q4 | -24.44 |
| 2015:Q1 | -22.41 |
| 2015:Q2 | -20.69 |
| 2015:Q3 | -19.08 |
| 2015:Q4 | -17.63 |
| 2016:Q1 | -16.34 |
| 2016:Q2 | -15.28 |
| 2016:Q3 | -14.31 |
| 2016:Q4 | -13.29 |
| 2017:Q1 | -12.27 |
| 2017:Q2 | -11.33 |
| 2017:Q3 | -10.42 |
| 2017:Q4 | -9.52 |
| 2018:Q1 | -8.65 |
| 2018:Q2 | -7.82 |
| 2018:Q3 | -7.07 |
| 2018:Q4 | -6.34 |
| 2019:Q1 | -5.63 |
| 2019:Q2 | -4.95 |
| 2019:Q3 | -4.32 |
| 2019:Q4 | -3.83 |
| 2020:Q1 | -3.36 |
| 2020:Q2 | -2.92 |
| 2020:Q3 | -2.52 |
| 2020:Q4 | -2.15 |
Source: Canlin Li and Min Wei, "Term Structure Modelling with Supply Factors and the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchase Programs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) and Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.
Figure 10. Taylor Rule, Balanced-Approach Rule, and Optimal Control
Federal Funds Rate
Percent
| Period | History | Taylor rule | Balanced-approach rule | Optimal control |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011:Q1 | 0.16 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q2 | 0.09 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q3 | 0.08 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q4 | 0.07 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2012:Q1 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| 2012:Q2 | ND | 1.13 | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| 2012:Q3 | ND | 1.09 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| 2012:Q4 | ND | 1.02 | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| 2013:Q1 | ND | 0.94 | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| 2013:Q2 | ND | 0.93 | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| 2013:Q3 | ND | 0.88 | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| 2013:Q4 | ND | 0.86 | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| 2014:Q1 | ND | 0.92 | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| 2014:Q2 | ND | 0.98 | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| 2014:Q3 | ND | 1.05 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| 2014:Q4 | ND | 1.14 | 0.29 | 0.15 |
| 2015:Q1 | ND | 1.26 | 0.55 | 0.17 |
| 2015:Q2 | ND | 1.45 | 0.92 | 0.19 |
| 2015:Q3 | ND | 1.65 | 1.29 | 0.24 |
| 2015:Q4 | ND | 1.86 | 1.65 | 0.37 |
| 2016:Q1 | ND | 2.08 | 1.98 | 0.63 |
| 2016:Q2 | ND | 2.28 | 2.27 | 0.99 |
| 2016:Q3 | ND | 2.47 | 2.52 | 1.40 |
| 2016:Q4 | ND | 2.66 | 2.73 | 1.84 |
| 2017:Q1 | ND | 2.84 | 2.92 | 2.29 |
| 2017:Q2 | ND | 3.01 | 3.09 | 2.73 |
| 2017:Q3 | ND | 3.18 | 3.25 | 3.13 |
| 2017:Q4 | ND | 3.34 | 3.39 | 3.48 |
| 2018:Q1 | ND | 3.50 | 3.53 | 3.78 |
Figure 11. Illustrative Economic Outlook under Alternative Policies
Unemployment Rate
Percent
| Period | History | Taylor rule | Balanced-approach rule | Optimal control |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011:Q1 | 8.99 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q2 | 9.07 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q3 | 9.06 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q4 | 8.70 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2012:Q1 | 8.25 | 8.25 | 8.25 | 8.25 |
| 2012:Q2 | ND | 8.10 | 8.10 | 8.10 |
| 2012:Q3 | ND | 8.03 | 8.00 | 7.98 |
| 2012:Q4 | ND | 7.99 | 7.90 | 7.84 |
| 2013:Q1 | ND | 7.96 | 7.81 | 7.70 |
| 2013:Q2 | ND | 7.94 | 7.71 | 7.54 |
| 2013:Q3 | ND | 7.91 | 7.62 | 7.38 |
| 2013:Q4 | ND | 7.88 | 7.52 | 7.22 |
| 2014:Q1 | ND | 7.84 | 7.42 | 7.06 |
| 2014:Q2 | ND | 7.80 | 7.33 | 6.91 |
| 2014:Q3 | ND | 7.74 | 7.23 | 6.75 |
| 2014:Q4 | ND | 7.68 | 7.14 | 6.60 |
| 2015:Q1 | ND | 7.60 | 7.04 | 6.45 |
| 2015:Q2 | ND | 7.47 | 6.90 | 6.26 |
| 2015:Q3 | ND | 7.32 | 6.75 | 6.06 |
| 2015:Q4 | ND | 7.16 | 6.60 | 5.87 |
| 2016:Q1 | ND | 7.00 | 6.47 | 5.70 |
| 2016:Q2 | ND | 6.85 | 6.35 | 5.55 |
| 2016:Q3 | ND | 6.71 | 6.24 | 5.44 |
| 2016:Q4 | ND | 6.57 | 6.15 | 5.35 |
| 2017:Q1 | ND | 6.45 | 6.07 | 5.29 |
| 2017:Q2 | ND | 6.32 | 6.00 | 5.25 |
| 2017:Q3 | ND | 6.21 | 5.93 | 5.23 |
| 2017:Q4 | ND | 6.10 | 5.87 | 5.23 |
| 2018:Q1 | ND | 6.00 | 5.81 | 5.25 |
PCE Inflation
4-quarter percent change
| Period | History | Taylor rule | Balanced-approach rule | Optimal control |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011:Q1 | 1.78 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q2 | 2.53 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q3 | 2.87 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q4 | 2.67 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2012:Q1 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.10 |
| 2012:Q2 | ND | 2.00 | 2.05 | 2.14 |
| 2012:Q3 | ND | 1.93 | 2.01 | 2.16 |
| 2012:Q4 | ND | 1.85 | 1.96 | 2.19 |
| 2013:Q1 | ND | 1.77 | 1.93 | 2.24 |
| 2013:Q2 | ND | 1.75 | 1.89 | 2.20 |
| 2013:Q3 | ND | 1.69 | 1.85 | 2.18 |
| 2013:Q4 | ND | 1.65 | 1.82 | 2.16 |
| 2014:Q1 | ND | 1.67 | 1.85 | 2.19 |
| 2014:Q2 | ND | 1.67 | 1.86 | 2.20 |
| 2014:Q3 | ND | 1.68 | 1.87 | 2.21 |
| 2014:Q4 | ND | 1.69 | 1.88 | 2.22 |
| 2015:Q1 | ND | 1.71 | 1.91 | 2.24 |
| 2015:Q2 | ND | 1.74 | 1.94 | 2.26 |
| 2015:Q3 | ND | 1.76 | 1.96 | 2.26 |
| 2015:Q4 | ND | 1.77 | 1.97 | 2.27 |
| 2016:Q1 | ND | 1.79 | 1.98 | 2.27 |
| 2016:Q2 | ND | 1.81 | 1.99 | 2.27 |
| 2016:Q3 | ND | 1.83 | 2.00 | 2.27 |
| 2016:Q4 | ND | 1.85 | 2.00 | 2.27 |
| 2017:Q1 | ND | 1.87 | 2.00 | 2.26 |
| 2017:Q2 | ND | 1.90 | 2.00 | 2.25 |
| 2017:Q3 | ND | 1.92 | 2.00 | 2.24 |
| 2017:Q4 | ND | 1.95 | 2.00 | 2.22 |
| 2018:Q1 | ND | 1.98 | 2.01 | 2.20 |
Last Update:
June 06, 2012