FRB: FOMC meeting -- June 22-23, 2010 presentation materials

Accessible Version

Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee
June 22-23, 2010 Presentation Materials

Presentation Materials (PDF)

Pages 170 to 213 of the Transcript

Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Sack

Material for
FOMC Presentation: Financial Market Developments and Desk Operations

Brian Sack
June 22, 2010

Class II FOMC - Restricted FR

Exhibit 1

Top-left panel
(1)

Title: Euro Area 2-Year Yield Spreads to German Debt
Series: Yield spreads as compared to German debt
Horizon: August 1, 2008 - June 21, 2010
Description: Spreads of Greece and other European countries--Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland--widened during the given period and peaked on 5/7/10.

Spread for Greece reached a peak of 1773 bps on 5/7/10. A vertical line marks the FOMC meeting of April 27-28, 2010.

Source: Bloomberg

Top-right panel
(2)

Title: Euro Area Bank CDS
Series: Average bank CDS by country--Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Ireland
Horizon: August 1, 2008 - June 21, 2010
Description: The CDS rose drastically in Europe in response the Greek credit crisis.

Source: Bloomberg

Middle-left panel
(3)

Title: 3-Month LIBOR-OIS Spreads
Series: 3-Month LIBOR-OIS Spread
Horizon: March 1, 2010 - February 2, 2011
Description: The implied path of the forward spread has decreased since May.

Realized Spot Spread, and Forward Spreads on 5/25/2010 and 6/18/2010 (implied spreads derived from forward rates on LIBOR and OIS).

Source: Bloomberg

Middle-right panel
(4)

Title: Unsecured Dollar-Denominated CP Issued by Foreign Financial Firms
Series: Outstanding commercial paper
Horizon: January 1, 2010 - June 16, 2010
Description: Outstanding foreign commercial paper has fallen during the intermeeting period.

Includes domestic issuers with foreign parents.

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Bottom-left panel
(5)

Title: Central Bank Liquidity Swaps Outstanding
Series: BOJ and ECB Swaps
Horizon: March 12, 2010 - June 17, 2010
Description: Outstanding BOJ and ECB swaps have decreased and have not reached the levels that they were at the start of the original program.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Bottom-right panel
(6)

Title: ECB Open Market Operations and Deposit Facility
Series: ECB Open Market Operations and Deposit Facility
Horizon: August 1, 2007 - June 18, 2010
Description: The ECB OMOs and Deposit Facility activity have risen in the past months.

Source: European Central Bank

Exhibit 2

Top-left panel
(7)

Title: Currencies
Series: Yen and Euro rates
Horizon: August 1, 2008 - August 18, 2010
Description: Yen/Dollar and Euro/Dollar rates, indexed to 8/1/08, show that the dollar has been appreciating to the euro and has remained relatively stable to the yen.

Source: Bloomberg

Top-right panel
(8)

Title: Global Equity Prices
Series: DJ EuroStoxx and S&P 500 indices
Horizon: August 1, 2008 - June 18, 2010
Description: The DJ EuroStoxx and the S&P 500, indexed to 8/1/08, have remained in line with each other, though the DJ EuroStoxx has trended lower recently.

Source: Bloomberg

Middle-left panel
(9)

Title: Corporate Bond Spreads
Series: High yield and investment grade corporate debt spreads
Horizon: August 1, 2008 - June 18, 2010
Description: Corporate bond spreads have continued to narrow over the intermeeting period, with a slight increase in May 2010.

Source: Bank of America

Middle-right panel
(10)

Title: US Financial CDS
Series: US CDS rate
Horizon: August 1, 2008 - June 18, 2010
Description: The US CDS rate has risen slightly over the intermeeting period.

Average of six large US financial institutions.

Source: Bloomberg

Bottom-left panel
(11) Potential Outcomes in Europe Over the Next 5 Years

Outcome	Average Probability
Fiscal austerity measures	79%
Fiscal integration/coordination	48%
Significant structural reform	45%
Credit event in euro area	62%
More than one credit event in euro area	40%
Country leaves euro	20%

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Dealer Policy Survey

Bottom-right panel
(12)

Title: Impact of Sovereign Credit Concerns on US Economy
Series: The FRBNY Dealer Policy Survey
Horizon: N/A
Description: In March, a majority of market participants thought that the sovereign credit would be a minimal concern for the US economy. However, in June most market participants believe that it will have a moderate effect.

Levels measured in percent of respondents.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Dealer Policy Survey

Exhibit 3

Top-left panel
(13)

Title: Implied Federal Funds Rate
Series: Future federal funds rates implied by Eurodollar and federal funds futures contracts
Horizon: 4/27/10, 6/18/10
Description: The implied path of the fed funds rate has declined significantly since the April FOMC meeting.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Top-right panel
(14)

Title: Treasury Yields
Series: Yields for 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Treasury notes
Horizon: August 1, 2008 - June 18, 2010
Description: Treasury yields declined slightly over the intermeeting period.

Source: Bloomberg

Middle-left panel
(15)

Title: Perceptions of Longer-Term Inflation
Series: The FRBNY Dealer Policy Survey
Horizon: August 1, 2007 - June 18, 2010
Description: Breakeven inflation rates and long-term inflation expectations declined during the intermeeting period.

5Y5Y Forward Dealer Forecast (modal forecast of headline CPI inflation), and 5Y5Y Forward BEI Rate

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Dealer Policy Survey

Middle-right panel
(16)

Title: MBS Spreads
Series: Fannie Mae fixed-rate current coupon option-adjusted spreads to Treasury and to swaps
Horizon: January 1, 2009 - June 18, 2010
Description: MBS spreads have remained relatively low.

Source: Barclays Capital

Bottom-left panel
(17)

Title: MBS Fails
Series: 4-week moving average of MBS fails to deliver
Horizon: January 1, 2002 - June 16, 2010
Description: There was a large spike in MBS Fails in the second quarter of 2010.

Source: FR2004

Bottom-right panel
(18)

Title: Net Issuance of FNMA 30-Year MBS
Series: FNMA 30-year 4.5 and 5.5 Coupon
Horizon: July 1, 2006 - May 1, 2010
Description: FNMA issuance of 5.5 coupons has declined; new issuance has moved to 4.5 coupons.

Source: eMBS

Appendix 2: Materials used by Mr. Sack

Material for
FOMC Presentation: SOMA Treasury Redemption and Reinvestment Policy

Brian Sack
June 22, 2010

Class II FOMC - Restricted FR

Exhibit 1

Top-left panel
(1)

Title: SOMA Holdings
Series: SOMA holdings of agency debt, agency MBS, and Treasury securities
Horizon: January 1, 2006 - June 11, 2010
Description: SOMA holdings of Treasuries, agency debt, and particularly agency MBS have increased since the start of the asset purchase program. Before late 2008, the portfolio was largely composed of Treasuries. The par amount of Treasuries held is roughly in line with pre-2008 levels.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Top-right panel
(2)

Title: Duration of Outstanding Treasuries and SOMA Treasury Portfolio
Series: Average duration of all outstanding Treasury securities and average duration of Treasury securities held in SOMA portfolio
Horizon: January 26, 1990 - May 19, 2010
Description: The average duration of the Treasury securities in the SOMA portfolio has increased notably over the past few years, despite only a slight shift up in the average duration of all outstanding Treasury securities.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Bottom panel
(3) Treasury Portfolio Metrics Under Different Options

As of Date	Historical Baseline	Baseline Portfolio	Option 1: Current Policy	Option 2: Reinvest in Short Maturities	Option 3: Reinvest in Bills Only	Option 4: Full Redemptions
As of Date	7/31/2007	7/1/2010	Portfolio as of 7/1/2013
Treasury Portfolio Holdings
Total ($ Billions, Par)	786	772	773	773	773	477
Components
Bills	277	18	18	68	297	0
Coupons	509	753	755	706	477	477
Maturities Within 1 Year	402	85	127	211	379	82
Risk Measures
10-Yr Equivalent ($ Billions, Par)	263	525	527	383	347	340
Duration (Years)	2.6	5.5	5.3	3.9	3.5	5.6
Secondary Market Purchases
Treasury Purchases Resume	N/A	N/A	Mar-15	Mar-15	Immediately	Feb-14
Market Effect
Estimated Impact on Long-Term Rates (bps)	N/A	N/A	None	5-10 bps	5-10 bps	10-20 bps

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Appendix 3: Materials used by Messrs. Wascher and Erceg and Ms. Liang

Material for Staff Presentation on the Economic Outlook
June 22, 2010

Class II FOMC - Restricted (FR)

Exhibit 1
Recent Indicators

Top-left panel
Change in Private Payroll Employment

Percent change, annual rate
Period	Private employment	Aggregate hours
January 2006	2.66	ND
February 2006	2.63	ND
March 2006	3.11	ND
April 2006	2.58	ND
May 2006	1.62	ND
June 2006	0.92	3.29
July 2006	0.94	1.22
August 2006	1.26	0.41
September 2006	1.18	-1.20
October 2006	0.72	0.41
November 2006	0.95	2.04
December 2006	1.35	4.94
January 2007	1.91	2.04
February 2007	1.52	1.62
March 2007	1.68	-0.80
April 2007	1.25	3.67
May 2007	1.42	3.67
June 2007	0.81	2.02
July 2007	0.64	-0.40
August 2007	-0.18	-2.37
September 2007	-0.37	-1.58
October 2007	-0.20	-1.59
November 2007	0.51	1.61
December 2007	0.64	2.02
January 2008	0.37	0.40
February 2008	-0.26	-1.59
March 2008	-0.54	-0.40
April 2008	-1.05	0.00
May 2008	-1.62	-0.40
June 2008	-2.21	-3.54
July 2008	-2.54	-3.56
August 2008	-2.87	-5.11
September 2008	-3.64	-5.90
October 2008	-4.63	-5.54
November 2008	-5.95	-7.12
December 2008	-6.68	-8.68
January 2009	-7.58	-9.86
February 2009	-7.53	-9.57
March 2009	-7.84	-10.04
April 2009	-7.36	-10.50
May 2009	-6.12	-8.23
June 2009	-5.14	-7.50
July 2009	-3.92	-5.09
August 2009	-3.51	-4.69
September 2009	-2.56	-2.60
October 2009	-2.44	-3.46
November 2009	-1.38	0.00
December 2009	-1.00	-0.88
January 2010	0.03	3.58
February 2010	-0.02	0.00
March 2010	0.88	3.58
April 2010	1.65	2.65
May 2010	1.57	4.92

Note: Three-month percent changes.

[Inset:] Unemployment rate, percent

	Current	Apr. GB
Mar.	9.7	9.7
Apr.	9.9	9.6
May	9.7	9.5

Top-right panel
Manufacturing IP

Period	Percent change, annual rate
March 2006	1.2
April 2006	0.3
May 2006	0.4
June 2006	2.3
July 2006	0.4
August 2006	3.0
September 2006	0.8
October 2006	-1.4
November 2006	-3.4
December 2006	2.2
January 2007	1.6
February 2007	3.3
March 2007	0.2
April 2007	4.0
May 2007	3.0
June 2007	2.5
July 2007	3.6
August 2007	1.7
September 2007	2.0
October 2007	-1.9
November 2007	1.3
December 2007	0.9
January 2008	1.6
February 2008	-1.9
March 2008	-3.4
April 2008	-6.0
May 2008	-4.7
June 2008	-5.9
July 2008	-3.4
August 2008	-6.4
September 2008	-19.3
October 2008	-17.2
November 2008	-22.2
December 2008	-19.2
January 2009	-31.0
February 2009	-23.0
March 2009	-18.0
April 2009	-8.6
May 2009	-11.8
June 2009	-6.7
July 2009	1.0
August 2009	9.7
September 2009	13.8
October 2009	7.0
November 2009	6.3
December 2009	3.2
January 2010	7.3
February 2010	2.9
March 2010	8.2
April 2010	8.3
May 2010	12.1

Note: Three-month percent changes.

[Inset:] Monthly percent change

Mar.	Apr.	May
1.2	0.9	0.9

Middle-left panel
Real PCE

Billions of chained (2005) dollars
Period	Real PCE	April GB
September 2009	9236.54	9236.54
October 2009	9262.54	9262.50
November 2009	9293.42	9293.36
December 2009	9312.44	9312.36
January 2010	9323.63	9336.66
February 2010	9369.26	9380.25
March 2010	9411.16	9398.03
April 2010	9413.16	9398.32
May 2010	9436.19	9422.77

[Inset:] Percent change, a.r.

	Current	Apr. GB
2010:Q1	3.4	3.6
2010:Q2	2.9	2.1

Middle-right panel
Single-family Home Sales

Millions of units, annual rate
Period	Existing	New
January 2006	5.88	1.17
February 2006	5.99	1.06
March 2006	5.99	1.12
April 2006	5.87	1.12
May 2006	5.75	1.09
June 2006	5.70	1.07
July 2006	5.53	0.97
August 2006	5.56	1.04
September 2006	5.50	1.02
October 2006	5.59	0.94
November 2006	5.57	1.00
December 2006	5.61	1.00
January 2007	5.64	0.89
February 2007	5.70	0.83
March 2007	5.35	0.83
April 2007	5.19	0.89
May 2007	5.14	0.84
June 2007	5.04	0.79
July 2007	4.97	0.78
August 2007	4.80	0.70
September 2007	4.48	0.69
October 2007	4.40	0.73
November 2007	4.44	0.64
December 2007	4.36	0.62
January 2008	4.40	0.63
February 2008	4.34	0.59
March 2008	4.37	0.54
April 2008	4.33	0.54
May 2008	4.38	0.50
June 2008	4.32	0.49
July 2008	4.35	0.48
August 2008	4.35	0.44
September 2008	4.60	0.43
October 2008	4.33	0.39
November 2008	4.04	0.39
December 2008	4.24	0.38
January 2009	4.08	0.34
February 2009	4.19	0.37
March 2009	4.13	0.35
April 2009	4.19	0.34
May 2009	4.24	0.37
June 2009	4.33	0.40
July 2009	4.53	0.41
August 2009	4.48	0.41
September 2009	4.93	0.39
October 2009	5.23	0.40
November 2009	5.71	0.37
December 2009	4.76	0.36
January 2010	4.43	0.35
February 2010	4.36	0.34
March 2010	4.70	0.44
April 2010	5.06	0.50
May 2010	4.98	ND

Bottom-left panel
Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft

Billions of dollars, ratio scale
Period	Shipments	New orders
January 2006	59.98	62.37
February 2006	60.55	62.56
March 2006	61.87	65.16
April 2006	61.47	62.71
May 2006	62.02	63.73
June 2006	62.12	64.37
July 2006	61.85	63.90
August 2006	63.14	64.43
September 2006	62.55	67.46
October 2006	62.14	65.94
November 2006	63.30	66.49
December 2006	63.68	66.37
January 2007	60.89	65.06
February 2007	62.99	65.26
March 2007	63.89	67.77
April 2007	64.45	69.51
May 2007	64.88	68.09
June 2007	65.06	67.89
July 2007	63.77	67.97
August 2007	66.15	69.47
September 2007	66.91	68.67
October 2007	65.48	67.86
November 2007	65.40	67.96
December 2007	66.34	70.94
January 2008	65.45	67.82
February 2008	64.65	66.93
March 2008	65.86	66.78
April 2008	66.44	69.11
May 2008	66.98	68.59
June 2008	67.11	69.23
July 2008	66.23	68.32
August 2008	65.50	67.29
September 2008	66.52	63.55
October 2008	63.20	59.43
November 2008	61.98	60.51
December 2008	61.74	54.83
January 2009	55.54	49.43
February 2009	56.15	51.54
March 2009	54.59	50.00
April 2009	53.31	48.19
May 2009	53.35	50.83
June 2009	53.89	52.96
July 2009	54.66	52.64
August 2009	53.86	52.45
September 2009	54.00	54.80
October 2009	54.11	53.23
November 2009	55.39	55.44
December 2009	56.24	56.26
January 2010	55.58	54.61
February 2010	56.83	56.23
March 2010	58.12	59.98
April 2010	58.12	58.39

Bottom-right panel
Near-term GDP Projection

Percent change, annual rate
Period	GDP Projection	April GB
2009:Q4	5.55	ND
2010:Q1	3.14	2.94
2010:Q2	3.64	3.52

[Data values are approximate.]

Exhibit 2
Medium-term Outlook

Top-left panel
Changes in Key Background Factors

Negatives:
- Lower stock market
- Higher dollar
- Weaker foreign growth
Positives:
- Lower oil prices
- Some lower interest rates

Top-right panel
Real GDP and Selected Components

(Percent change, annual rate)
		2010^p		2011^p
		H1	H2	2011^p
1.	Real GDP	3.4	3.0	3.7
2.	Apr. GB	3.2	3.7	4.4
Selected contributions (p.p.):
3.	Domestic final sales	3.1	2.7	3.5
4.	Apr. GB	3.0	3.2	4.1
5.	Inventory investment	0.8	0.4	0.3
6.	Net exports	-0.5	-0.1	-0.2
7.	Apr. GB	-0.0	-0.2	-0.0

p. Staff forecast. Return to table

Middle-left panel
Real PCE

Percent change, annual rate
Period	Real PCE	April GB
2008	-1.80	ND
2009	1.02	ND
2010:H1	3.14	2.85
2010:H2	2.27	2.79
2011:H1	3.01	3.35
2011:H2	3.22	3.78

[Data values are approximate.]

Middle-right panel
Real Equipment and Software Investment

Percent change, annual rate
Period	Real E&S Investment	April GB
2008	-10.75	ND
2009	-7.52	ND
2010:H1	16.81	16.41
2010:H2	11.31	13.92
2011:H1	11.02	13.73
2011:H2	10.64	12.63

[Data values are approximate.]

Bottom-left panel
Single-family Housing Starts

Thousands of units, annual rate
Period	Starts	April GB
2005:Q1	1.70	ND
2005:Q2	1.70	ND
2005:Q3	1.75	ND
2005:Q4	1.73	ND
2006:Q1	1.74	ND
2006:Q2	1.51	ND
2006:Q3	1.39	ND
2006:Q4	1.25	ND
2007:Q1	1.17	ND
2007:Q2	1.15	ND
2007:Q3	0.98	ND
2007:Q4	0.84	ND
2008:Q1	0.74	ND
2008:Q2	0.67	ND
2008:Q3	0.59	ND
2008:Q4	0.47	ND
2009:Q1	0.36	ND
2009:Q2	0.42	ND
2009:Q3	0.50	ND
2009:Q4	0.49	ND
2010:Q1	0.53	0.52
Forecast
2010:Q2	0.50	0.54
2010:Q3	0.58	0.59
2010:Q4	0.65	0.64
2011:Q1	0.70	0.68
2011:Q2	0.72	0.74
2011:Q3	0.80	0.82
2011:Q4	0.88	0.91

Bottom-right panel
Real Nonresidential Structures Investment

Percent change, annual rate
Period	Real Nonresidential Structures Investment	April GB
2008	3.19	ND
2009	-25.27	ND
2010:H1	-8.27	-5.22
2010:H2	-1.22	0.29
2011:H1	-0.16	0.70
2011:H2	-0.26	1.45

[Data values are approximate.]

Exhibit 3
Labor Markets and Inflation

Top-left panel
Private Payroll Employment

Index, NBER trough month = 100
Month (relative to NBER trough)	1975 episode	1982 episode	1991 episode	2001 episode	Current episode
					History through May 2010
-36	96.32	102.21	96.63	97.63	105.98
-35	96.62	102.33	96.89	97.91	106.09
-34	97.02	102.48	97.11	98.01	106.15
-33	97.51	102.56	97.48	98.33	106.17
-32	97.31	102.61	97.75	98.41	106.34
-31	97.92	102.02	97.83	98.69	106.50
-30	98.06	101.60	98.11	98.89	106.67
-29	98.66	101.18	98.36	99.09	106.75
-28	99.07	100.85	98.66	99.30	106.94
-27	99.50	101.22	98.99	99.44	107.01
-26	100.06	101.49	99.24	99.60	107.12
-25	100.66	101.79	99.48	99.92	107.16
-24	101.04	102.14	99.68	100.15	107.18
-23	101.27	102.43	99.85	100.38	107.07
-22	101.51	102.58	99.95	100.58	107.06
-21	101.81	102.69	100.04	100.66	107.12
-20	101.86	102.91	100.09	100.97	107.21
-19	102.21	103.05	100.05	101.17	107.23
-18	102.41	103.15	100.28	101.06	107.22
-17	102.80	103.48	100.40	101.26	107.14
-16	103.20	103.61	100.68	101.42	107.09
-15	103.34	103.65	100.76	101.45	106.94
-14	103.42	103.64	101.06	101.66	106.71
-13	103.59	103.45	101.30	101.64	106.49
-12	103.63	103.15	101.41	101.84	106.25
-11	103.71	102.77	101.36	101.92	105.93
-10	103.93	102.37	101.28	101.88	105.51
-9	103.99	102.40	101.35	101.87	105.00
-8	103.96	102.20	101.30	101.81	104.32
-7	103.87	101.84	101.18	101.51	103.70
-6	103.71	101.79	101.11	101.43	102.95
-5	103.63	101.43	100.93	101.22	102.30
-4	102.96	101.14	100.76	101.06	101.61
-3	101.94	100.86	100.67	100.88	101.00
-2	101.26	100.63	100.53	100.64	100.69
-1	100.45	100.20	100.18	100.31	100.28
0 (NBER trough)	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1	99.63	99.98	99.77	99.81	99.80
2	99.84	100.23	99.61	99.67	99.63
3	99.74	100.15	99.64	99.52	99.38
4	100.02	100.38	99.55	99.47	99.45
5	100.63	100.78	99.60	99.38	99.38
6	100.83	101.14	99.66	99.31	99.39
7	101.20	101.64	99.62	99.31	99.45
8	101.42	102.23	99.52	99.23	99.60
9	101.90	101.80	99.53	99.18	99.80
10	102.65	103.29	99.53	99.16	99.84
					Forecast
11	103.14	103.74	99.46	99.27	99.98
12	103.50	104.21	99.48	99.25	100.14
13	103.90	104.68	99.63	99.11	100.32
14	103.95	105.29	99.76	99.15	100.53
15	104.07	105.93	99.81	99.00	100.74
16	104.29	106.30	99.83	98.82	100.96
17	104.53	106.74	99.91	98.79	101.19
18	104.89	107.12	100.01	98.81	101.42
19	104.82	107.61	100.21	98.78	101.64
20	105.28	107.98	100.35	98.77	101.88
21	105.62	108.24	100.54	98.81	102.13
22	106.04	108.62	100.86	98.95	102.38
23	106.52	108.99	101.13	99.08	102.63
24	107.18	109.42	101.07	99.12	102.88
25	107.69	109.63	101.38	99.22	103.14
26	108.18	109.92	101.66	99.37	103.43
27	108.70	110.08	101.83	99.40	103.73
28	109.12	110.49	102.06	99.67	104.03
29	109.45	110.71	102.27	99.87	104.32
30	110.07	111.02	102.52	100.16	ND
31	110.40	111.19	102.83	100.24	ND
32	110.93	111.28	103.09	100.28	ND
33	111.27	111.55	103.39	100.37	ND
34	111.45	111.80	103.64	100.51	ND
35	111.93	112.04	103.86	100.81	ND
36	112.66	112.30	104.33	100.84	ND

[NBER is the National Bureau of Economic Research.]

Top-right panel
Unemployment Rate and the NAIRU

Percent
Period	Unemployment rate	April GB	NAIRU	NAIRU+EEB effects	Resource slack (approximate) [unemployment rate minus (NAIRU+EEB effects)]
2002:Q1	5.70	ND	5.00	5.03	0.67
2002:Q2	5.84	ND	4.99	5.34	0.50
2002:Q3	5.73	ND	4.98	5.28	0.45
2002:Q4	5.85	ND	4.95	5.19	0.66
2003:Q1	5.87	ND	4.92	5.13	0.74
2003:Q2	6.15	ND	4.90	5.14	1.01
2003:Q3	6.10	ND	4.88	5.12	0.98
2003:Q4	5.82	ND	4.87	5.11	0.71
2004:Q1	5.68	ND	4.88	4.99	0.69
2004:Q2	5.59	ND	4.89	4.90	0.69
2004:Q3	5.43	ND	4.87	4.87	0.56
2004:Q4	5.39	ND	4.88	4.88	0.51
2005:Q1	5.28	ND	4.85	4.86	0.42
2005:Q2	5.11	ND	4.84	4.84	0.27
2005:Q3	4.97	ND	4.86	4.86	0.11
2005:Q4	4.95	ND	4.84	4.84	0.11
2006:Q1	4.72	ND	4.83	4.83	-0.11
2006:Q2	4.65	ND	4.84	4.84	-0.19
2006:Q3	4.64	ND	4.82	4.82	-0.18
2006:Q4	4.46	ND	4.83	4.83	-0.37
2007:Q1	4.51	ND	4.84	4.84	-0.33
2007:Q2	4.49	ND	4.81	4.81	-0.32
2007:Q3	4.66	ND	4.79	4.79	-0.13
2007:Q4	4.83	ND	4.79	4.79	0.04
2008:Q1	4.95	ND	4.78	4.78	0.17
2008:Q2	5.31	ND	4.76	4.76	0.55
2008:Q3	6.03	ND	4.82	4.99	1.04
2008:Q4	6.94	ND	4.89	5.09	1.85
2009:Q1	8.20	ND	5.06	5.42	2.78
2009:Q2	9.27	ND	5.19	5.65	3.62
2009:Q3	9.66	ND	5.22	5.86	3.80
2009:Q4	10.03	ND	5.22	6.01	4.02
2010:Q1	9.71	9.71	5.22	6.25	3.46
Forecast
2010:Q2	9.76	9.54	5.22	6.21	3.55
2010:Q3	9.68	9.50	5.22	6.16	3.52
2010:Q4	9.48	9.30	5.22	6.11	3.37
2011:Q1	9.31	8.91	5.22	6.02	3.29
2011:Q2	9.11	8.71	5.22	5.93	3.18
2011:Q3	8.89	8.48	5.22	5.84	3.05
2011:Q4	8.65	8.24	5.22	5.75	2.90

Middle-left panel
PCE Price Index

12-month percent change
Period	Total	Core
January 2006	3.32	2.17
February 2006	3.06	2.09
March 2006	2.89	2.08
April 2006	2.97	2.22
May 2006	3.26	2.26
June 2006	3.41	2.40
July 2006	3.29	2.39
August 2006	3.22	2.54
September 2006	1.92	2.43
October 2006	1.49	2.37
November 2006	1.89	2.25
December 2006	2.30	2.30
January 2007	2.13	2.50
February 2007	2.43	2.58
March 2007	2.65	2.43
April 2007	2.45	2.30
May 2007	2.46	2.19
June 2007	2.42	2.16
July 2007	2.26	2.24
August 2007	2.00	2.16
September 2007	2.60	2.25
October 2007	3.25	2.36
November 2007	3.81	2.49
December 2007	3.71	2.59
January 2008	3.69	2.41
February 2008	3.54	2.31
March 2008	3.49	2.41
April 2008	3.51	2.47
May 2008	3.62	2.56
June 2008	4.13	2.62
July 2008	4.51	2.68
August 2008	4.41	2.65
September 2008	4.12	2.53
October 2008	3.23	2.26
November 2008	1.38	2.05
December 2008	0.59	1.80
January 2009	0.51	1.74
February 2009	0.62	1.78
March 2009	0.19	1.67
April 2009	0.05	1.74
May 2009	-0.25	1.61
June 2009	-0.37	1.52
July 2009	-0.88	1.34
August 2009	-0.59	1.27
September 2009	-0.61	1.22
October 2009	0.12	1.44
November 2009	1.45	1.51
December 2009	2.12	1.60
January 2010	2.12	1.48
February 2010	1.82	1.34
March 2010	2.03	1.33
April 2010	1.95	1.15
May 2010	1.83	1.17

[Inset:] Percent change

	Mar.	Apr.	May^e
Total:	0.1	0.0	-0.1
Core:	0.1	0.1	0.1

e. Staff estimate. Return to table

Middle-right panel
Core Nonfuel Import Prices

Index, 2005 = 100
Period	Prices	April GB
2006:Q1	100.94	ND
2006:Q2	101.76	ND
2006:Q3	102.82	ND
2006:Q4	103.15	ND
2007:Q1	103.77	ND
2007:Q2	104.56	ND
2007:Q3	105.49	ND
2007:Q4	106.76	ND
2008:Q1	108.98	ND
2008:Q2	112.02	ND
2008:Q3	113.52	ND
2008:Q4	110.84	ND
2009:Q1	108.13	ND
2009:Q2	107.51	ND
2009:Q3	107.85	ND
2009:Q4	109.08	ND
2010:Q1	110.17	110.16
Forecast
2010:Q2	110.99	110.95
2010:Q3	110.97	111.59
2010:Q4	110.98	112.03
2011:Q1	111.27	112.42
2011:Q2	111.67	112.75
2011:Q3	112.18	113.07
2011:Q4	112.67	113.38

Bottom-left panel
Long-term Inflation Expectations

Percent
Period	TIPS, five-to-ten years ahead	Reuters/Michigan, next five-to-ten years
January 2002	2.64	2.7
February 2002	2.59	2.8
March 2002	2.81	2.8
April 2002	2.80	2.8
May 2002	2.81	3.0
June 2002	2.67	2.8
July 2002	2.71	2.8
August 2002	2.89	2.9
September 2002	2.67	2.5
October 2002	2.70	2.8
November 2002	2.79	2.8
December 2002	2.76	2.8
January 2003	2.81	2.7
February 2003	2.79	2.7
March 2003	2.62	2.8
April 2003	2.54	2.7
May 2003	2.48	2.8
June 2003	2.38	2.7
July 2003	2.75	2.7
August 2003	3.07	2.7
September 2003	2.94	2.7
October 2003	3.06	2.8
November 2003	3.23	2.7
December 2003	3.07	2.8
January 2004	2.93	2.8
February 2004	2.85	2.9
March 2004	2.87	2.9
April 2004	3.02	2.7
May 2004	3.19	2.8
June 2004	3.11	2.9
July 2004	2.98	2.8
August 2004	2.92	2.7
September 2004	2.80	2.8
October 2004	2.73	2.8
November 2004	2.78	2.7
December 2004	2.86	2.8
January 2005	2.70	2.7
February 2005	2.60	2.8
March 2005	2.78	2.9
April 2005	2.71	3.0
May 2005	2.59	2.9
June 2005	2.43	2.8
July 2005	2.40	2.9
August 2005	2.48	2.8
September 2005	2.55	3.1
October 2005	2.59	3.2
November 2005	2.65	3.0
December 2005	2.52	3.1
January 2006	2.51	2.9
February 2006	2.55	2.9
March 2006	2.58	2.9
April 2006	2.67	3.1
May 2006	2.75	3.2
June 2006	2.65	2.9
July 2006	2.65	2.9
August 2006	2.70	3.2
September 2006	2.62	3.0
October 2006	2.59	3.1
November 2006	2.57	3.0
December 2006	2.51	3.0
January 2007	2.48	3.0
February 2007	2.49	2.9
March 2007	2.49	2.9
April 2007	2.54	3.1
May 2007	2.47	3.1
June 2007	2.63	2.9
July 2007	2.64	3.1
August 2007	2.68	2.9
September 2007	2.75	2.9
October 2007	2.77	2.8
November 2007	2.77	2.9
December 2007	2.73	3.1
January 2008	2.81	3.0
February 2008	2.96	3.0
March 2008	3.08	2.9
April 2008	2.91	3.2
May 2008	2.84	3.4
June 2008	2.80	3.4
July 2008	2.84	3.2
August 2008	2.81	3.2
September 2008	2.79	3.0
October 2008	3.11	2.9
November 2008	2.87	2.9
December 2008	2.35	2.6
January 2009	2.46	2.9
February 2009	2.63	3.1
March 2009	2.39	2.6
April 2009	2.54	2.8
May 2009	2.81	2.9
June 2009	2.93	3.0
July 2009	3.05	3.0
August 2009	3.16	2.8
September 2009	2.97	2.8
October 2009	2.99	2.9
November 2009	3.19	3.0
December 2009	3.17	2.7
January 2010	3.24	2.9
February 2010	3.13	2.7
March 2010	2.94	2.7
April 2010	3.03	2.7
May 2010	2.93	2.9
June 2010	2.79*	2.7

* Through June 18. Return to table

SPF, next ten years
Period	Percent
2002:Q1	2.50
2002:Q2	2.50
2002:Q3	2.50
2002:Q4	2.45
2003:Q1	2.50
2003:Q2	2.50
2003:Q3	2.50
2003:Q4	2.50
2004:Q1	2.50
2004:Q2	2.50
2004:Q3	2.50
2004:Q4	2.50
2005:Q1	2.45
2005:Q2	2.50
2005:Q3	2.50
2005:Q4	2.50
2006:Q1	2.50
2006:Q2	2.50
2006:Q3	2.50
2006:Q4	2.50
2007:Q1	2.35
2007:Q2	2.40
2007:Q3	2.40
2007:Q4	2.40
2008:Q1	2.50
2008:Q2	2.50
2008:Q3	2.50
2008:Q4	2.50
2009:Q1	2.40
2009:Q2	2.50
2009:Q3	2.50
2009:Q4	2.26
2010:Q1	2.39
2010:Q2	2.40

Bottom-right panel
PCE Price Projections

(Percent change, Q4/Q4)
		2009	2010	2011
1.	Total	1.2	0.9	1.0
2.	Apr. GB		1.3	1.0
3.	Energy	1.1	2.3	3.9
4.	Apr. GB		7.6	2.4
5.	Core	1.5	0.8	0.8
6.	Apr. GB		0.9	0.9

Exhibit 4
Sectoral Reallocation and the NAIRU

[Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): December 1969-November 1970, November 1973-March 1975, January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, and March 2001-November 2001. Vertical lines indicate the NBER Peak in December 2007.]

Top-left panel
Industry Reallocation

Contributions to dispersion
Period	Cyclical dispersion	Excess dispersion
1970:Q1	1.74	-0.44
1970:Q2	5.55	-0.97
1970:Q3	8.43	-0.32
1970:Q4	12.64	3.46
1971:Q1	9.31	1.81
1971:Q2	4.47	3.08
1971:Q3	1.81	4.32
1971:Q4	0.62	0.69
1972:Q1	-0.23	1.52
1972:Q2	0.12	-0.24
1972:Q3	-0.12	-0.68
1972:Q4	-0.94	1.00
1973:Q1	0.09	0.37
1973:Q2	0.20	0.03
1973:Q3	1.59	-0.87
1973:Q4	0.67	-1.23
1974:Q1	0.13	-1.30
1974:Q2	1.05	-1.16
1974:Q3	3.53	-0.25
1974:Q4	10.12	-0.52
1975:Q1	22.22	4.58
1975:Q2	28.53	6.33
1975:Q3	22.43	6.01
1975:Q4	11.35	2.22
1976:Q1	0.64	0.22
1976:Q2	0.52	-0.61
1976:Q3	-0.23	0.02
1976:Q4	-0.63	0.28
1977:Q1	0.06	-0.38
1977:Q2	0.47	-0.39
1977:Q3	0.66	-0.24
1977:Q4	0.48	0.39
1978:Q1	-0.47	0.88
1978:Q2	-0.38	0.48
1978:Q3	-0.24	1.46
1978:Q4	0.15	1.24
1979:Q1	-0.13	2.65
1979:Q2	0.32	0.41
1979:Q3	0.44	-0.58
1979:Q4	0.35	-0.23
1980:Q1	1.23	0.12
1980:Q2	7.25	-0.09
1980:Q3	9.81	0.77
1980:Q4	6.89	-0.04
1981:Q1	4.67	0.80
1981:Q2	-0.24	1.77
1981:Q3	-0.85	4.66
1981:Q4	1.56	2.66
1982:Q1	3.60	1.58
1982:Q2	7.74	1.72
1982:Q3	9.90	2.07
1982:Q4	11.47	3.43
1983:Q1	8.96	3.19
1983:Q2	4.69	2.80
1983:Q3	1.36	3.14
1983:Q4	2.06	0.54
1984:Q1	3.63	1.02
1984:Q2	3.69	1.57
1984:Q3	1.69	3.19
1984:Q4	-1.55	3.47
1985:Q1	-2.72	4.42
1985:Q2	-2.16	5.73
1985:Q3	-1.80	6.79
1985:Q4	-1.66	6.62
1986:Q1	-2.23	6.67
1986:Q2	-2.02	7.53
1986:Q3	-1.43	7.29
1986:Q4	-0.59	5.82
1987:Q1	0.11	4.30
1987:Q2	0.39	1.47
1987:Q3	0.25	0.08
1987:Q4	-0.26	-0.28
1988:Q1	-0.58	0.05
1988:Q2	-1.19	0.68
1988:Q3	-1.19	1.46
1988:Q4	-1.29	2.24
1989:Q1	-1.03	2.02
1989:Q2	-0.95	2.07
1989:Q3	-1.46	2.35
1989:Q4	-0.49	1.30
1990:Q1	-0.25	1.35
1990:Q2	0.69	0.76
1990:Q3	1.27	0.87
1990:Q4	2.92	-0.18
1991:Q1	6.33	0.90
1991:Q2	6.65	0.87
1991:Q3	6.68	0.01
1991:Q4	5.27	0.34
1992:Q1	3.25	0.22
1992:Q2	1.40	0.80
1992:Q3	-0.48	2.54
1992:Q4	-1.27	2.46
1993:Q1	-1.08	1.63
1993:Q2	-0.97	1.85
1993:Q3	-0.20	1.15
1993:Q4	0.03	0.92
1994:Q1	0.09	0.53
1994:Q2	0.20	0.69
1994:Q3	0.30	0.86
1994:Q4	0.22	1.10
1995:Q1	0.16	1.95
1995:Q2	-0.06	1.50
1995:Q3	-0.05	1.17
1995:Q4	-0.14	0.85
1996:Q1	-0.04	0.36
1996:Q2	0.04	0.94
1996:Q3	-0.04	1.06
1996:Q4	-0.02	1.02
1997:Q1	-0.04	1.40
1997:Q2	-0.06	1.80
1997:Q3	-0.08	1.77
1997:Q4	0.07	1.43
1998:Q1	0.25	1.13
1998:Q2	0.21	0.63
1998:Q3	0.11	0.93
1998:Q4	0.10	1.87
1999:Q1	-0.38	3.11
1999:Q2	-0.56	3.93
1999:Q3	-0.34	3.20
1999:Q4	-0.33	3.04
2000:Q1	-0.19	2.20
2000:Q2	-0.48	1.61
2000:Q3	-0.30	0.65
2000:Q4	-0.15	0.04
2001:Q1	0.43	-0.13
2001:Q2	1.51	0.65
2001:Q3	4.30	2.20
2001:Q4	7.27	4.97
2002:Q1	7.98	6.50
2002:Q2	6.63	4.41
2002:Q3	4.16	3.31
2002:Q4	3.06	1.58
2003:Q1	2.43	1.25
2003:Q2	2.21	1.62
2003:Q3	1.59	1.93
2003:Q4	0.42	1.87
2004:Q1	-0.55	1.84
2004:Q2	-0.65	1.30
2004:Q3	-0.31	0.46
2004:Q4	-0.15	0.36
2005:Q1	-0.13	0.45
2005:Q2	-0.09	0.92
2005:Q3	-0.22	1.35
2005:Q4	-0.02	1.23
2006:Q1	0.25	1.59
2006:Q2	0.06	1.27
2006:Q3	0.03	0.75
2006:Q4	-0.11	0.44
2007:Q1	0.38	-0.13
2007:Q2	0.46	-0.03
2007:Q3	0.57	0.07
2007:Q4	0.39	0.37
2008:Q1	0.27	0.89
2008:Q2	1.12	1.28
2008:Q3	3.43	0.81
2008:Q4	7.16	0.87
2009:Q1	14.55	1.89
2009:Q2	20.81	2.08
2009:Q3	21.28	1.91
2009:Q4	16.45	1.83
2010:Q1	7.33	1.16
2010:Q2	1.40	1.41

Note: Dispersion is measured as the variance in employment growth across 14 industry groups. 2010:Q2 value is based on April and May data.

Top-right panel
Geographic Reallocation

Contributions to dispersion
Period	Cyclical dispersion	Excess dispersion
1970:Q1	0.12	-0.36
1970:Q2	-0.03	0.07
1970:Q3	0.40	-0.24
1970:Q4	1.23	1.42
1971:Q1	0.54	-1.18
1971:Q2	0.46	-0.50
1971:Q3	0.05	1.05
1971:Q4	0.14	2.12
1972:Q1	0.07	2.41
1972:Q2	0.05	2.50
1972:Q3	0.47	2.02
1972:Q4	0.14	1.12
1973:Q1	0.30	0.14
1973:Q2	0.43	-0.09
1973:Q3	0.33	-0.05
1973:Q4	0.14	-0.54
1974:Q1	0.27	-1.20
1974:Q2	0.23	-0.89
1974:Q3	0.60	-1.39
1974:Q4	2.08	-1.19
1975:Q1	3.65	-0.19
1975:Q2	3.57	-0.18
1975:Q3	2.56	0.35
1975:Q4	1.33	0.86
1976:Q1	0.30	0.51
1976:Q2	0.68	0.02
1976:Q3	-0.15	-0.97
1976:Q4	-0.12	-1.41
1977:Q1	-0.02	-1.04
1977:Q2	0.03	-1.36
1977:Q3	0.38	-0.62
1977:Q4	0.33	-0.57
1978:Q1	0.19	1.18
1978:Q2	-0.31	0.47
1978:Q3	-0.22	0.06
1978:Q4	-0.97	0.52
1979:Q1	-0.72	0.35
1979:Q2	0.28	-1.33
1979:Q3	0.26	-0.53
1979:Q4	0.67	0.24
1980:Q1	0.83	0.04
1980:Q2	2.11	1.46
1980:Q3	2.63	2.37
1980:Q4	1.42	0.80
1981:Q1	0.84	0.96
1981:Q2	0.17	1.54
1981:Q3	-0.42	0.94
1981:Q4	1.20	0.41
1982:Q1	2.67	-0.12
1982:Q2	1.92	-0.74
1982:Q3	1.38	-1.61
1982:Q4	0.74	-1.07
1983:Q1	0.54	-0.76
1983:Q2	0.42	0.09
1983:Q3	0.72	-0.08
1983:Q4	0.91	-0.68
1984:Q1	0.56	-0.58
1984:Q2	-0.25	-0.27
1984:Q3	-0.28	-0.37
1984:Q4	-0.29	-0.55
1985:Q1	-0.07	-0.70
1985:Q2	0.06	-0.54
1985:Q3	0.21	-0.49
1985:Q4	0.29	-0.18
1986:Q1	0.25	-0.53
1986:Q2	0.17	0.43
1986:Q3	0.00	1.83
1986:Q4	-0.08	2.49
1987:Q1	-0.30	2.93
1987:Q2	0.05	1.12
1987:Q3	-0.02	0.00
1987:Q4	0.17	-0.98
1988:Q1	0.10	-1.27
1988:Q2	-0.08	-1.44
1988:Q3	-0.07	-1.46
1988:Q4	-0.10	-1.27
1989:Q1	-0.05	-1.34
1989:Q2	-0.03	-1.05
1989:Q3	-0.08	-0.49
1989:Q4	-0.02	-0.18
1990:Q1	-0.12	0.61
1990:Q2	0.07	0.76
1990:Q3	0.17	0.93
1990:Q4	0.39	0.81
1991:Q1	0.39	1.19
1991:Q2	0.30	0.84
1991:Q3	0.36	0.60
1991:Q4	0.23	-0.07
1992:Q1	0.35	-0.32
1992:Q2	0.34	-0.30
1992:Q3	0.10	-0.36
1992:Q4	0.10	0.07
1993:Q1	0.02	-0.29
1993:Q2	-0.20	0.45
1993:Q3	-0.10	0.17
1993:Q4	-0.06	0.28
1994:Q1	0.11	0.54
1994:Q2	0.13	0.02
1994:Q3	0.11	0.28
1994:Q4	-0.02	-0.04
1995:Q1	-0.07	-0.34
1995:Q2	-0.10	-0.35
1995:Q3	-0.10	-0.32
1995:Q4	-0.05	-0.29
1996:Q1	-0.05	0.02
1996:Q2	-0.06	-0.10
1996:Q3	-0.02	-0.12
1996:Q4	-0.19	0.00
1997:Q1	-0.24	-0.05
1997:Q2	-0.19	0.01
1997:Q3	-0.38	0.19
1997:Q4	-0.24	-0.05
1998:Q1	-0.32	0.01
1998:Q2	-0.13	-0.33
1998:Q3	-0.14	0.05
1998:Q4	-0.19	0.00
1999:Q1	-0.16	-0.04
1999:Q2	-0.19	0.12
1999:Q3	-0.15	-0.10
1999:Q4	-0.16	-0.05
2000:Q1	-0.09	-0.17
2000:Q2	-0.34	0.22
2000:Q3	-0.06	0.49
2000:Q4	0.03	0.56
2001:Q1	0.29	0.67
2001:Q2	0.60	0.02
2001:Q3	0.58	-0.40
2001:Q4	0.62	-0.54
2002:Q1	0.61	-0.49
2002:Q2	0.47	-0.66
2002:Q3	0.27	-0.70
2002:Q4	0.19	-0.55
2003:Q1	0.06	-0.25
2003:Q2	0.14	-0.41
2003:Q3	0.20	-0.39
2003:Q4	0.12	-0.41
2004:Q1	-0.09	-0.18
2004:Q2	-0.20	0.12
2004:Q3	-0.17	0.04
2004:Q4	-0.19	0.22
2005:Q1	-0.14	0.08
2005:Q2	-0.13	0.07
2005:Q3	-0.13	0.51
2005:Q4	-0.03	1.18
2006:Q1	-0.13	1.10
2006:Q2	-0.09	0.94
2006:Q3	0.00	0.35
2006:Q4	-0.14	0.43
2007:Q1	0.29	-0.20
2007:Q2	0.08	-0.11
2007:Q3	0.11	-0.14
2007:Q4	0.19	-0.08
2008:Q1	0.13	0.24
2008:Q2	0.34	0.40
2008:Q3	0.99	0.21
2008:Q4	1.69	0.15
2009:Q1	2.68	-0.24
2009:Q2	2.85	-0.53
2009:Q3	2.70	-0.59
2009:Q4	1.91	-0.72
2010:Q1	1.04	-0.46
2010:Q2	0.29	0.31

Note: Dispersion is measured as the variance in employment growth across states. 2010:Q2 value is based on April and May data.

Middle-left panel
Permanent Job Losers

Percent of employment
Period	Stock	Rate
January 1970	1.01	ND
February 1970	1.12	ND
March 1970	1.18	ND
April 1970	1.25	ND
May 1970	1.47	ND
June 1970	1.42	ND
July 1970	1.43	ND
August 1970	1.62	ND
September 1970	1.59	ND
October 1970	1.71	ND
November 1970	1.83	ND
December 1970	1.95	ND
January 1971	1.98	ND
February 1971	2.01	ND
March 1971	1.92	ND
April 1971	2.00	ND
May 1971	2.06	ND
June 1971	2.04	ND
July 1971	2.09	ND
August 1971	2.08	ND
September 1971	1.92	ND
October 1971	1.93	ND
November 1971	2.04	ND
December 1971	1.95	ND
January 1972	1.95	ND
February 1972	1.86	ND
March 1972	1.90	ND
April 1972	1.80	ND
May 1972	2.00	ND
June 1972	1.87	ND
July 1972	1.86	ND
August 1972	2.00	ND
September 1972	1.89	ND
October 1972	1.81	ND
November 1972	1.68	ND
December 1972	1.68	ND
January 1973	1.57	ND
February 1973	1.48	ND
March 1973	1.43	ND
April 1973	1.42	ND
May 1973	1.31	ND
June 1973	1.49	ND
July 1973	1.41	ND
August 1973	1.38	ND
September 1973	1.47	ND
October 1973	1.32	ND
November 1973	1.42	ND
December 1973	1.49	ND
January 1974	1.63	ND
February 1974	1.54	ND
March 1974	1.52	ND
April 1974	1.56	ND
May 1974	1.55	ND
June 1974	1.56	ND
July 1974	1.62	ND
August 1974	1.67	ND
September 1974	1.81	ND
October 1974	1.86	ND
November 1974	2.12	ND
December 1974	2.32	ND
January 1975	2.87	ND
February 1975	2.85	ND
March 1975	3.01	ND
April 1975	3.12	ND
May 1975	3.35	ND
June 1975	3.27	ND
July 1975	3.36	ND
August 1975	3.32	ND
September 1975	3.42	ND
October 1975	3.20	ND
November 1975	3.27	ND
December 1975	3.06	ND
January 1976	3.13	ND
February 1976	2.92	ND
March 1976	2.99	ND
April 1976	2.91	ND
May 1976	2.85	ND
June 1976	3.01	0.66
July 1976	2.99	0.78
August 1976	2.91	0.70
September 1976	2.84	0.76
October 1976	2.93	0.74
November 1976	2.97	0.73
December 1976	2.97	0.72
January 1977	2.80	0.76
February 1977	2.79	0.70
March 1977	2.66	0.74
April 1977	2.54	0.73
May 1977	2.50	0.68
June 1977	2.43	0.72
July 1977	2.38	0.69
August 1977	2.44	0.71
September 1977	2.43	0.69
October 1977	2.31	0.65
November 1977	2.37	0.68
December 1977	2.19	0.65
January 1978	2.17	0.65
February 1978	2.07	0.69
March 1978	2.07	0.67
April 1978	2.06	0.68
May 1978	2.00	0.68
June 1978	1.85	0.62
July 1978	1.95	0.67
August 1978	1.87	0.62
September 1978	1.78	0.59
October 1978	1.91	0.66
November 1978	1.74	0.62
December 1978	1.85	0.66
January 1979	1.81	0.60
February 1979	1.84	0.62
March 1979	1.80	0.60
April 1979	1.77	0.61
May 1979	1.69	0.58
June 1979	1.62	0.62
July 1979	1.81	0.59
August 1979	1.82	0.66
September 1979	1.83	0.60
October 1979	1.93	0.64
November 1979	1.85	0.65
December 1979	1.88	0.63
January 1980	2.07	0.69
February 1980	2.00	0.65
March 1980	2.06	0.68
April 1980	2.27	0.73
May 1980	2.44	0.83
June 1980	2.48	0.75
July 1980	2.73	0.80
August 1980	2.71	0.83
September 1980	2.70	0.78
October 1980	2.67	0.74
November 1980	2.84	0.75
December 1980	2.77	0.75
January 1981	2.72	0.72
February 1981	2.78	0.77
March 1981	2.63	0.78
April 1981	2.60	0.76
May 1981	2.68	0.81
June 1981	2.80	0.86
July 1981	2.65	0.77
August 1981	2.84	0.79
September 1981	2.97	0.86
October 1981	2.89	0.85
November 1981	3.06	0.90
December 1981	3.29	0.96
January 1982	3.48	1.01
February 1982	3.48	0.99
March 1982	3.77	1.03
April 1982	3.91	0.99
May 1982	3.98	1.03
June 1982	4.12	1.07
July 1982	4.25	1.00
August 1982	4.18	1.03
September 1982	4.37	1.12
October 1982	4.83	1.20
November 1982	4.93	1.11
December 1982	4.83	1.03
January 1983	4.73	0.91
February 1983	4.85	1.01
March 1983	4.90	0.97
April 1983	4.78	0.95
May 1983	4.84	0.95
June 1983	4.68	0.96
July 1983	4.42	0.98
August 1983	4.40	0.95
September 1983	4.25	1.06
October 1983	4.05	0.96
November 1983	3.81	0.85
December 1983	3.66	0.89
January 1984	3.49	0.87
February 1984	3.37	0.87
March 1984	3.25	0.88
April 1984	3.24	0.85
May 1984	2.99	0.71
June 1984	2.91	0.72
July 1984	3.13	0.90
August 1984	2.90	0.82
September 1984	2.90	0.82
October 1984	2.96	0.83
November 1984	2.93	0.83
December 1984	2.97	0.85
January 1985	2.91	0.87
February 1985	2.84	0.82
March 1985	2.80	0.84
April 1985	2.79	0.82
May 1985	2.66	0.71
June 1985	2.80	0.83
July 1985	2.96	0.87
August 1985	2.81	0.87
September 1985	2.72	0.79
October 1985	2.70	0.78
November 1985	2.72	0.79
December 1985	2.65	0.76
January 1986	2.44	0.73
February 1986	2.76	0.81
March 1986	2.81	0.79
April 1986	2.69	0.82
May 1986	2.81	0.84
June 1986	2.93	0.82
July 1986	2.72	0.78
August 1986	2.59	0.76
September 1986	2.73	0.79
October 1986	2.67	0.78
November 1986	2.60	0.73
December 1986	2.54	0.78
January 1987	2.56	0.77
February 1987	2.54	0.74
March 1987	2.53	0.75
April 1987	2.44	0.71
May 1987	2.37	0.69
June 1987	2.40	0.63
July 1987	2.31	0.69
August 1987	2.22	0.69
September 1987	2.20	0.64
October 1987	2.23	0.68
November 1987	2.12	0.66
December 1987	2.03	0.64
January 1988	2.00	0.61
February 1988	2.01	0.59
March 1988	1.99	0.56
April 1988	1.81	0.61
May 1988	2.11	0.72
June 1988	1.96	0.63
July 1988	1.95	0.60
August 1988	1.93	0.60
September 1988	1.95	0.65
October 1988	1.86	0.60
November 1988	1.89	0.64
December 1988	1.92	0.64
January 1989	1.93	0.66
February 1989	1.79	0.67
March 1989	1.76	0.60
April 1989	1.79	0.65
May 1989	1.67	0.59
June 1989	1.70	0.61
July 1989	1.79	0.60
August 1989	1.78	0.58
September 1989	1.78	0.60
October 1989	1.90	0.66
November 1989	1.83	0.62
December 1989	1.83	0.63
January 1990	1.80	0.56
February 1990	1.78	0.64
March 1990	1.81	0.65
April 1990	1.85	0.67
May 1990	1.84	0.64
June 1990	1.90	0.65
July 1990	1.93	0.66
August 1990	2.08	0.76
September 1990	2.08	0.64
October 1990	2.21	0.69
November 1990	2.33	0.81
December 1990	2.32	0.70
January 1991	2.58	0.77
February 1991	2.56	0.74
March 1991	2.81	0.78
April 1991	2.74	0.75
May 1991	2.82	0.79
June 1991	2.91	0.78
July 1991	3.01	0.78
August 1991	2.95	0.85
September 1991	3.12	0.84
October 1991	3.03	0.81
November 1991	3.08	0.82
December 1991	3.23	0.87
January 1992	3.23	0.75
February 1992	3.47	0.82
March 1992	3.51	0.85
April 1992	3.48	0.78
May 1992	3.69	0.87
June 1992	3.65	0.85
July 1992	3.58	0.79
August 1992	3.53	0.78
September 1992	3.40	0.80
October 1992	3.53	0.84
November 1992	3.42	0.75
December 1992	3.31	0.74
January 1993	3.33	0.75
February 1993	3.19	0.75
March 1993	3.23	0.74
April 1993	3.28	0.88
May 1993	3.05	0.68
June 1993	3.18	0.70
July 1993	3.13	0.73
August 1993	3.06	0.71
September 1993	2.96	0.68
October 1993	2.92	0.69
November 1993	2.88	0.65
December 1993	2.81	0.75
January 1994	2.62	0.71
February 1994	2.56	0.55
March 1994	2.53	0.62
April 1994	2.38	0.65
May 1994	2.24	0.51
June 1994	2.28	0.63
July 1994	2.29	0.65
August 1994	2.18	0.63
September 1994	2.23	0.61
October 1994	2.18	0.55
November 1994	2.12	0.58
December 1994	1.99	0.57
January 1995	2.03	0.59
February 1995	1.89	0.47
March 1995	1.89	0.60
April 1995	1.95	0.54
May 1995	2.07	0.59
June 1995	1.89	0.59
July 1995	1.92	0.56
August 1995	1.92	0.57
September 1995	2.01	0.62
October 1995	1.99	0.59
November 1995	1.98	0.61
December 1995	1.97	0.55
January 1996	1.95	0.54
February 1996	1.98	0.59
March 1996	1.96	0.50
April 1996	2.05	0.57
May 1996	1.86	0.58
June 1996	1.86	0.53
July 1996	1.86	0.53
August 1996	1.68	0.49
September 1996	1.74	0.47
October 1996	1.73	0.47
November 1996	1.82	0.56
December 1996	1.72	0.52
January 1997	1.77	0.56
February 1997	1.72	0.52
March 1997	1.68	0.50
April 1997	1.61	0.45
May 1997	1.58	0.48
June 1997	1.68	0.56
July 1997	1.56	0.39
August 1997	1.64	0.49
September 1997	1.62	0.49
October 1997	1.48	0.50
November 1997	1.59	0.48
December 1997	1.58	0.50
January 1998	1.52	0.51
February 1998	1.52	0.52
March 1998	1.51	0.53
April 1998	1.49	0.55
May 1998	1.53	0.53
June 1998	1.50	0.52
July 1998	1.44	0.52
August 1998	1.46	0.51
September 1998	1.47	0.51
October 1998	1.48	0.53
November 1998	1.48	0.49
December 1998	1.48	0.58
January 1999	1.39	0.47
February 1999	1.41	0.50
March 1999	1.32	0.50
April 1999	1.38	0.55
May 1999	1.38	0.50
June 1999	1.33	0.51
July 1999	1.38	0.51
August 1999	1.32	0.53
September 1999	1.25	0.52
October 1999	1.29	0.53
November 1999	1.24	0.43
December 1999	1.22	0.53
January 2000	1.30	0.51
February 2000	1.32	0.48
March 2000	1.25	0.52
April 2000	1.16	0.43
May 2000	1.16	0.48
June 2000	1.07	0.45
July 2000	1.18	0.49
August 2000	1.26	0.48
September 2000	1.21	0.52
October 2000	1.20	0.44
November 2000	1.18	0.44
December 2000	1.19	0.43
January 2001	1.29	0.45
February 2001	1.41	0.60
March 2001	1.48	0.54
April 2001	1.49	0.62
May 2001	1.53	0.63
June 2001	1.67	0.66
July 2001	1.72	0.53
August 2001	1.77	0.64
September 2001	1.80	0.68
October 2001	2.20	0.74
November 2001	2.41	0.77
December 2001	2.45	0.71
January 2002	2.46	0.77
February 2002	2.43	0.74
March 2002	2.46	0.71
April 2002	2.56	0.66
May 2002	2.58	0.64
June 2002	2.61	0.66
July 2002	2.52	0.62
August 2002	2.50	0.68
September 2002	2.54	0.66
October 2002	2.62	0.65
November 2002	2.68	0.71
December 2002	2.68	0.67
January 2003	2.63	0.69
February 2003	2.66	0.67
March 2003	2.63	0.66
April 2003	2.67	0.67
May 2003	2.80	0.70
June 2003	2.78	0.69
July 2003	2.79	0.67
August 2003	2.83	0.72
September 2003	2.77	0.63
October 2003	2.70	0.64
November 2003	2.60	0.59
December 2003	2.50	0.63
January 2004	2.42	0.59
February 2004	2.33	0.56
March 2004	2.56	0.60
April 2004	2.41	0.62
May 2004	2.33	0.62
June 2004	2.24	0.58
July 2004	2.27	0.63
August 2004	2.15	0.60
September 2004	2.22	0.65
October 2004	2.24	0.63
November 2004	2.22	0.60
December 2004	2.19	0.62
January 2005	2.18	0.57
February 2005	2.10	0.59
March 2005	2.01	0.48
April 2005	1.99	0.56
May 2005	1.93	0.55
June 2005	1.88	0.56
July 2005	1.86	0.57
August 2005	1.79	0.53
September 2005	1.91	0.59
October 2005	1.83	0.58
November 2005	1.84	0.51
December 2005	1.79	0.51
January 2006	1.75	0.53
February 2006	1.72	0.49
March 2006	1.74	0.56
April 2006	1.81	0.55
May 2006	1.75	0.53
June 2006	1.64	0.56
July 2006	1.68	0.53
August 2006	1.64	0.51
September 2006	1.61	0.51
October 2006	1.46	0.46
November 2006	1.55	0.49
December 2006	1.56	0.56
January 2007	1.68	0.50
February 2007	1.62	0.52
March 2007	1.60	0.46
April 2007	1.60	0.45
May 2007	1.61	0.49
June 2007	1.72	0.52
July 2007	1.88	0.52
August 2007	1.82	0.57
September 2007	1.83	0.55
October 2007	1.79	0.53
November 2007	1.83	0.54
December 2007	1.99	0.56
January 2008	1.93	0.54
February 2008	1.97	0.58
March 2008	2.11	0.62
April 2008	2.00	0.52
May 2008	2.13	0.73
June 2008	2.26	0.60
July 2008	2.44	0.62
August 2008	2.54	0.72
September 2008	2.70	0.69
October 2008	3.06	0.81
November 2008	3.35	0.92
December 2008	3.62	0.79
January 2009	4.07	1.15
February 2009	4.49	0.96
March 2009	4.87	0.95
April 2009	5.13	0.94
May 2009	5.40	0.95
June 2009	5.58	0.88
July 2009	5.64	0.89
August 2009	5.82	0.81
September 2009	5.99	0.84
October 2009	6.21	0.91
November 2009	6.08	0.78
December 2009	5.91	0.79
January 2010	5.69	0.77
February 2010	5.76	0.68
March 2010	5.59	0.66
April 2010	5.66	0.71
May 2010	5.56	0.67

Note: Rate includes job losers not on layoff, unemployed less than five weeks. Stock includes all job losers not on layoff.

Middle-right panel
Migration Rate

Percent of population
Period	High negative-equity states	Other states
1996	4.84	5.25
1997	4.79	4.92
1998	4.26	5.05
1999	3.94	4.98
2000	4.43	5.20
2001	3.66	4.54
2002	3.94	4.70
2003	4.02	4.19
2004	3.90	4.20
2005	3.83	4.07
2006	3.76	4.46
2007	3.34	3.91
2008	2.91	3.53
2009	3.45	3.31

Note: Includes inter-state and inter-county moves. High negative equity states are CA, NV, AZ, FL, and MI. [A vertical line indicates the peak in house prices in 2006.]

Bottom-left panel
Beveridge Curve, 2001-10

2001-2007
Unemployment rate	Index of openings rate
4.23	147.35
4.41	127.00
4.45	130.68
4.47	134.49
4.50	133.08
4.63	125.09
4.64	126.31
4.65	126.70
4.71	133.76
4.82	116.68
4.82	121.30
4.94	127.66
4.96	124.37
5.10	125.28
5.28	128.07
5.38	112.42
5.43	107.66
5.53	100.00
5.58	108.94
5.68	107.32
5.70	103.71
5.72	99.10
5.81	100.59
5.84	104.39
5.84	94.60
5.87	98.75
6.10	96.76
6.15	92.89

Note: Index of openings rate is constructed from Staff Composite Help Wanted Index. [Data points are plotted as black dots.]

2008:Q1-2009:Q3
Unemployment rate	Index of openings rate
4.94	120.98
5.31	111.70
6.03	108.38
6.94	98.55
8.21	77.73
9.28	74.55
9.67	76.02

Note: Index of openings rate is constructed from Staff Composite Help Wanted Index. [Data points are plotted as blue triangles.]

2009:Q4-2010:Q2
Period	Unemployment rate	Index of openings rate
2009:Q4	10.05	76.67
2010:Q1	9.71	87.29
2010:Q2*	9.78	89.71

* April and May. Return to table

Note: Index of openings rate is constructed from Staff Composite Help Wanted Index. [Data points are plotted as an orange square for 2009:Q4, a red open square for 2010:Q1, and a green circle for 2010:Q2.]

Bottom-right panel
Job Matching

Percent
Period	Actual U-to-E flows	Estimated
1976:Q1	31	30
1976:Q2	30	30
1976:Q3	32	30
1976:Q4	30	30
1977:Q1	33	31
1977:Q2	33	32
1977:Q3	34	34
1977:Q4	34	35
1978:Q1	37	36
1978:Q2	38	38
1978:Q3	37	38
1978:Q4	36	39
1979:Q1	38	39
1979:Q2	38	39
1979:Q3	38	39
1979:Q4	36	38
1980:Q1	35	36
1980:Q2	33	32
1980:Q3	33	31
1980:Q4	33	32
1981:Q1	32	32
1981:Q2	32	32
1981:Q3	31	32
1981:Q4	31	29
1982:Q1	28	27
1982:Q2	27	26
1982:Q3	26	24
1982:Q4	23	23
1983:Q1	24	24
1983:Q2	25	25
1983:Q3	27	26
1983:Q4	27	29
1984:Q1	30	31
1984:Q2	30	32
1984:Q3	30	32
1984:Q4	30	33
1985:Q1	33	33
1985:Q2	32	33
1985:Q3	33	33
1985:Q4	33	33
1986:Q1	35	33
1986:Q2	33	33
1986:Q3	32	33
1986:Q4	35	34
1987:Q1	35	34
1987:Q2	36	36
1987:Q3	37	37
1987:Q4	37	37
1988:Q1	36	38
1988:Q2	40	39
1988:Q3	39	38
1988:Q4	36	39
1989:Q1	39	39
1989:Q2	39	39
1989:Q3	40	38
1989:Q4	40	38
1990:Q1	41	38
1990:Q2	37	37
1990:Q3	34	35
1990:Q4	34	32
1991:Q1	32	30
1991:Q2	32	29
1991:Q3	32	29
1991:Q4	29	28
1992:Q1	30	28
1992:Q2	29	28
1992:Q3	28	28
1992:Q4	30	28
1993:Q1	29	29
1993:Q2	30	29
1993:Q3	30	30
1993:Q4	32	31
1994:Q1	33	32
1994:Q2	34	33
1994:Q3	35	34
1994:Q4	36	35
1995:Q1	37	36
1995:Q2	36	35
1995:Q3	36	35
1995:Q4	35	35
1996:Q1	35	35
1996:Q2	35	35
1996:Q3	37	36
1996:Q4	36	36
1997:Q1	38	37
1997:Q2	38	38
1997:Q3	37	38
1997:Q4	40	40
1998:Q1	39	40
1998:Q2	41	41
1998:Q3	41	40
1998:Q4	41	41
1999:Q1	42	42
1999:Q2	40	42
1999:Q3	42	42
1999:Q4	44	43
2000:Q1	44	44
2000:Q2	43	44
2000:Q3	43	43
2000:Q4	42	43
2001:Q1	41	41
2001:Q2	41	38
2001:Q3	38	36
2001:Q4	35	32
2002:Q1	35	32
2002:Q2	31	31
2002:Q3	32	31
2002:Q4	30	30
2003:Q1	30	31
2003:Q2	30	29
2003:Q3	29	30
2003:Q4	31	31
2004:Q1	30	32
2004:Q2	32	32
2004:Q3	33	33
2004:Q4	34	33
2005:Q1	33	35
2005:Q2	33	35
2005:Q3	34	36
2005:Q4	34	36
2006:Q1	35	37
2006:Q2	37	37
2006:Q3	38	37
2006:Q4	37	38
2007:Q1	39	38
2007:Q2	36	38
2007:Q3	35	37
2007:Q4	34	36
2008:Q1	34	36
2008:Q2	33	33
2008:Q3	30	31
2008:Q4	26	28
2009:Q1	23	24
2009:Q2	22	23
2009:Q3	20	22
2009:Q4	19	22
2010:Q1	20	23

Note: Actual and estimated monthly flows from unemployment to employment [U-to-E, represented by U→E in the original document]. Estimated values are from a regression of the rate of U-to-E flows on the log of the ratio of vacancies to unemployment.

Exhibit 5
Long-term Unemployment and Hysteresis

Top-left panel
Long-term Unemployment Rate

Period	Percent of labor force
January 1970	0.17
February 1970	0.20
March 1970	0.22
April 1970	0.24
May 1970	0.28
June 1970	0.27
July 1970	0.28
August 1970	0.30
September 1970	0.34
October 1970	0.31
November 1970	0.40
December 1970	0.46
January 1971	0.51
February 1971	0.54
March 1971	0.54
April 1971	0.54
May 1971	0.60
June 1971	0.65
July 1971	0.67
August 1971	0.65
September 1971	0.66
October 1971	0.70
November 1971	0.68
December 1971	0.68
January 1972	0.69
February 1972	0.76
March 1972	0.73
April 1972	0.78
May 1972	0.67
June 1972	0.63
July 1972	0.60
August 1972	0.61
September 1972	0.63
October 1972	0.60
November 1972	0.54
December 1972	0.52
January 1973	0.47
February 1973	0.42
March 1973	0.44
April 1973	0.38
May 1973	0.39
June 1973	0.36
July 1973	0.31
August 1973	0.37
September 1973	0.33
October 1973	0.37
November 1973	0.39
December 1973	0.36
January 1974	0.36
February 1974	0.37
March 1974	0.36
April 1974	0.39
May 1974	0.39
June 1974	0.40
July 1974	0.42
August 1974	0.42
September 1974	0.42
October 1974	0.43
November 1974	0.46
December 1974	0.58
January 1975	0.67
February 1975	0.77
March 1975	0.83
April 1975	1.03
May 1975	1.16
June 1975	1.39
July 1975	1.49
August 1975	1.56
September 1975	1.70
October 1975	1.54
November 1975	1.75
December 1975	1.68
January 1976	1.67
February 1976	1.61
March 1976	1.53
April 1976	1.47
May 1976	1.27
June 1976	1.41
July 1976	1.29
August 1976	1.32
September 1976	1.25
October 1976	1.27
November 1976	1.31
December 1976	1.37
January 1977	1.25
February 1977	1.23
March 1977	1.19
April 1977	1.14
May 1977	1.08
June 1977	1.04
July 1977	0.98
August 1977	0.90
September 1977	0.94
October 1977	0.91
November 1977	0.89
December 1977	0.85
January 1978	0.81
February 1978	0.66
March 1978	0.71
April 1978	0.67
May 1978	0.68
June 1978	0.63
July 1978	0.64
August 1978	0.60
September 1978	0.61
October 1978	0.58
November 1978	0.51
December 1978	0.49
January 1979	0.51
February 1979	0.53
March 1979	0.57
April 1979	0.53
May 1979	0.50
June 1979	0.50
July 1979	0.45
August 1979	0.51
September 1979	0.50
October 1979	0.50
November 1979	0.52
December 1979	0.51
January 1980	0.51
February 1980	0.48
March 1980	0.58
April 1980	0.65
May 1980	0.67
June 1980	0.72
July 1980	0.82
August 1980	0.87
September 1980	0.90
October 1980	0.99
November 1980	1.05
December 1980	1.07
January 1981	1.17
February 1981	1.15
March 1981	1.12
April 1981	1.04
May 1981	1.05
June 1981	1.04
July 1981	1.00
August 1981	1.07
September 1981	1.03
October 1981	1.04
November 1981	1.05
December 1981	1.08
January 1982	1.09
February 1982	1.17
March 1982	1.24
April 1982	1.37
May 1982	1.46
June 1982	1.62
July 1982	1.65
August 1982	1.69
September 1982	1.82
October 1982	2.03
November 1982	2.11
December 1982	2.31
January 1983	2.41
February 1983	2.45
March 1983	2.48
April 1983	2.45
May 1983	2.48
June 1983	2.58
July 1983	2.32
August 1983	2.25
September 1983	2.17
October 1983	2.03
November 1983	1.93
December 1983	1.83
January 1984	1.82
February 1984	1.63
March 1984	1.58
April 1984	1.56
May 1984	1.49
June 1984	1.38
July 1984	1.40
August 1984	1.33
September 1984	1.27
October 1984	1.25
November 1984	1.25
December 1984	1.22
January 1985	1.15
February 1985	1.17
March 1985	1.17
April 1985	1.19
May 1985	1.07
June 1985	1.11
July 1985	1.10
August 1985	1.06
September 1985	1.06
October 1985	1.03
November 1985	1.12
December 1985	1.04
January 1986	0.93
February 1986	1.01
March 1986	1.00
April 1986	1.00
May 1986	0.99
June 1986	1.08
July 1986	1.03
August 1986	1.01
September 1986	1.04
October 1986	1.02
November 1986	0.98
December 1986	0.97
January 1987	0.96
February 1987	0.93
March 1987	0.94
April 1987	0.90
May 1987	0.93
June 1987	0.90
July 1987	0.82
August 1987	0.87
September 1987	0.82
October 1987	0.79
November 1987	0.77
December 1987	0.75
January 1988	0.72
February 1988	0.73
March 1988	0.70
April 1988	0.67
May 1988	0.70
June 1988	0.66
July 1988	0.65
August 1988	0.65
September 1988	0.67
October 1988	0.63
November 1988	0.57
December 1988	0.60
January 1989	0.59
February 1989	0.52
March 1989	0.54
April 1989	0.58
May 1989	0.51
June 1989	0.49
July 1989	0.50
August 1989	0.45
September 1989	0.48
October 1989	0.52
November 1989	0.53
December 1989	0.51
January 1990	0.51
February 1990	0.50
March 1990	0.51
April 1990	0.52
May 1990	0.51
June 1990	0.51
July 1990	0.55
August 1990	0.58
September 1990	0.62
October 1990	0.62
November 1990	0.66
December 1990	0.66
January 1991	0.69
February 1991	0.72
March 1991	0.75
April 1991	0.77
May 1991	0.83
June 1991	0.88
July 1991	0.88
August 1991	0.93
September 1991	0.94
October 1991	0.98
November 1991	1.09
December 1991	1.19
January 1992	1.28
February 1992	1.34
March 1992	1.39
April 1992	1.37
May 1992	1.55
June 1992	1.67
July 1992	1.65
August 1992	1.61
September 1992	1.64
October 1992	1.71
November 1992	1.55
December 1992	1.60
January 1993	1.53
February 1993	1.48
March 1993	1.40
April 1993	1.27
May 1993	1.37
June 1993	1.38
July 1993	1.37
August 1993	1.37
September 1993	1.36
October 1993	1.40
November 1993	1.39
December 1993	1.37
January 1994	1.33
February 1994	1.35
March 1994	1.37
April 1994	1.34
May 1994	1.30
June 1994	1.21
July 1994	1.20
August 1994	1.20
September 1994	1.17
October 1994	1.21
November 1994	1.11
December 1994	1.04
January 1995	1.01
February 1995	0.93
March 1995	1.01
April 1995	1.07
May 1995	1.00
June 1995	0.94
July 1995	0.94
August 1995	0.93
September 1995	0.95
October 1995	0.92
November 1995	0.95
December 1995	0.92
January 1996	0.91
February 1996	0.90
March 1996	1.00
April 1996	1.01
May 1996	1.02
June 1996	1.02
July 1996	0.99
August 1996	0.94
September 1996	0.90
October 1996	0.88
November 1996	0.85
December 1996	0.85
January 1997	0.85
February 1997	0.82
March 1997	0.81
April 1997	0.81
May 1997	0.77
June 1997	0.79
July 1997	0.79
August 1997	0.79
September 1997	0.79
October 1997	0.76
November 1997	0.68
December 1997	0.72
January 1998	0.73
February 1998	0.70
March 1998	0.67
April 1998	0.64
May 1998	0.61
June 1998	0.57
July 1998	0.60
August 1998	0.59
September 1998	0.66
October 1998	0.62
November 1998	0.63
December 1998	0.58
January 1999	0.51
February 1999	0.58
March 1999	0.51
April 1999	0.50
May 1999	0.52
June 1999	0.58
July 1999	0.52
August 1999	0.51
September 1999	0.51
October 1999	0.52
November 1999	0.49
December 1999	0.49
January 2000	0.51
February 2000	0.44
March 2000	0.45
April 2000	0.42
May 2000	0.45
June 2000	0.44
July 2000	0.49
August 2000	0.50
September 2000	0.45
October 2000	0.44
November 2000	0.41
December 2000	0.45
January 2001	0.47
February 2001	0.50
March 2001	0.48
April 2001	0.50
May 2001	0.44
June 2001	0.50
July 2001	0.49
August 2001	0.60
September 2001	0.57
October 2001	0.63
November 2001	0.77
December 2001	0.78
January 2002	0.84
February 2002	0.84
March 2002	0.92
April 2002	1.01
May 2002	1.09
June 2002	1.13
July 2002	1.09
August 2002	1.08
September 2002	1.09
October 2002	1.14
November 2002	1.20
December 2002	1.33
January 2003	1.21
February 2003	1.28
March 2003	1.23
April 2003	1.32
May 2003	1.32
June 2003	1.43
July 2003	1.35
August 2003	1.36
September 2003	1.37
October 2003	1.34
November 2003	1.36
December 2003	1.32
January 2004	1.30
February 2004	1.27
March 2004	1.35
April 2004	1.23
May 2004	1.22
June 2004	1.25
July 2004	1.14
August 2004	1.11
September 2004	1.15
October 2004	1.18
November 2004	1.15
December 2004	1.12
January 2005	1.11
February 2005	1.10
March 2005	1.12
April 2005	1.08
May 2005	1.03
June 2005	0.92
July 2005	0.92
August 2005	0.94
September 2005	0.96
October 2005	0.95
November 2005	0.91
December 2005	0.90
January 2006	0.78
February 2006	0.89
March 2006	0.87
April 2006	0.89
May 2006	0.89
June 2006	0.76
July 2006	0.86
August 2006	0.86
September 2006	0.82
October 2006	0.71
November 2006	0.74
December 2006	0.72
January 2007	0.74
February 2007	0.81
March 2007	0.81
April 2007	0.79
May 2007	0.75
June 2007	0.75
July 2007	0.85
August 2007	0.81
September 2007	0.82
October 2007	0.85
November 2007	0.89
December 2007	0.86
January 2008	0.90
February 2008	0.85
March 2008	0.85
April 2008	0.89
May 2008	1.02
June 2008	1.04
July 2008	1.09
August 2008	1.20
September 2008	1.30
October 2008	1.47
November 2008	1.43
December 2008	1.69
January 2009	1.74
February 2009	1.92
March 2009	2.10
April 2009	2.41
May 2009	2.60
June 2009	2.87
July 2009	3.22
August 2009	3.25
September 2009	3.54
October 2009	3.65
November 2009	3.84
December 2009	4.00
January 2010	4.12
February 2010	4.00
March 2010	4.25
April 2010	4.34
May 2010	4.38

Note: Unemployed for more than 28 weeks. [Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): December 1969-November 1970, November 1973-March 1975, January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, and March 2001-November 2001. A vertical line indicates the NBER Peak in December 2007.]

Top-right panel
Sources of Rising Long-term Unemployment

Permanent job loss
Weak labor demand
EEB benefits
Will high levels of long-term unemployment raise the NAIRU?

Middle-left panel
Unemployment Rate in the U.S. and Euro Area

Percent
Period	U.S.	Euro area*
1970:Q2	4.8	1.67
1970:Q3	5.2	1.73
1970:Q4	5.8	1.71
1971:Q1	5.9	1.74
1971:Q2	5.9	1.80
1971:Q3	6.0	1.82
1971:Q4	6.0	1.90
1972:Q1	5.8	2.05
1972:Q2	5.7	2.19
1972:Q3	5.6	2.16
1972:Q4	5.3	2.18
1973:Q1	5.0	2.04
1973:Q2	4.9	2.02
1973:Q3	4.8	2.29
1973:Q4	4.8	2.03
1974:Q1	5.1	2.09
1974:Q2	5.2	2.27
1974:Q3	5.6	2.30
1974:Q4	6.6	2.73
1975:Q1	8.2	3.35
1975:Q2	8.9	3.55
1975:Q3	8.5	3.83
1975:Q4	8.3	3.83
1976:Q1	7.7	4.01
1976:Q2	7.6	3.94
1976:Q3	7.7	4.00
1976:Q4	7.8	3.87
1977:Q1	7.5	4.14
1977:Q2	7.1	4.29
1977:Q3	6.9	4.51
1977:Q4	6.6	4.55
1978:Q1	6.3	4.60
1978:Q2	6.0	4.56
1978:Q3	6.0	4.74
1978:Q4	5.9	4.77
1979:Q1	5.9	4.89
1979:Q2	5.7	4.75
1979:Q3	5.9	5.01
1979:Q4	5.9	5.13
1980:Q1	6.3	5.01
1980:Q2	7.3	5.18
1980:Q3	7.7	5.43
1980:Q4	7.4	5.68
1981:Q1	7.4	5.85
1981:Q2	7.4	6.10
1981:Q3	7.4	6.60
1981:Q4	8.2	6.99
1982:Q1	8.8	7.40
1982:Q2	9.4	7.60
1982:Q3	9.9	7.76
1982:Q4	10.7	8.08
1983:Q1	10.4	8.35
1983:Q2	10.1	8.63
1983:Q3	9.4	8.80
1983:Q4	8.5	8.69
1984:Q1	7.9	8.84
1984:Q2	7.5	9.22
1984:Q3	7.4	9.17
1984:Q4	7.3	9.14
1985:Q1	7.3	9.37
1985:Q2	7.3	9.46
1985:Q3	7.2	9.27
1985:Q4	7.0	9.29
1986:Q1	7.0	9.46
1986:Q2	7.2	9.29
1986:Q3	7.0	9.26
1986:Q4	6.8	9.25
1987:Q1	6.6	9.47
1987:Q2	6.3	9.35
1987:Q3	6.0	9.26
1987:Q4	5.9	9.35
1988:Q1	5.7	9.32
1988:Q2	5.5	9.21
1988:Q3	5.5	9.06
1988:Q4	5.3	9.01
1989:Q1	5.2	8.74
1989:Q2	5.2	8.56
1989:Q3	5.3	8.48
1989:Q4	5.4	8.40
1990:Q1	5.3	8.15
1990:Q2	5.3	7.97
1990:Q3	5.7	7.86
1990:Q4	6.1	7.87
1991:Q1	6.6	7.78
1991:Q2	6.8	7.89
1991:Q3	6.9	8.22
1991:Q4	7.1	8.54
1992:Q1	7.4	8.48
1992:Q2	7.6	8.85
1992:Q3	7.6	9.09
1992:Q4	7.4	9.31
1993:Q1	7.2	9.20
1993:Q2	7.1	9.58
1993:Q3	6.8	10.02
1993:Q4	6.6	10.45
1994:Q1	6.6	10.66
1994:Q2	6.2	10.74
1994:Q3	6.0	10.71
1994:Q4	5.6	10.49
1995:Q1	5.5	10.45
1995:Q2	5.7	10.35
1995:Q3	5.7	10.36
1995:Q4	5.6	10.34
1996:Q1	5.5	10.48
1996:Q2	5.5	10.58
1996:Q3	5.3	10.61
1996:Q4	5.3	10.62
1997:Q1	5.2	10.61
1997:Q2	5.0	10.57
1997:Q3	4.9	10.52
1997:Q4	4.7	10.39
1998:Q1	4.6	10.32
1998:Q2	4.4	10.16
1998:Q3	4.5	10.08
1998:Q4	4.4	9.89
1999:Q1	4.3	9.71
1999:Q2	4.3	9.47
1999:Q3	4.2	9.30
1999:Q4	4.1	9.04
2000:Q1	4.0	8.77
2000:Q2	3.9	8.57
2000:Q3	4.0	8.39
2000:Q4	3.9	8.24
2001:Q1	4.2	8.03
2001:Q2	4.4	7.97
2001:Q3	4.8	8.05
2001:Q4	5.5	8.07
2002:Q1	5.7	8.24
2002:Q2	5.8	8.30
2002:Q3	5.7	8.45
2002:Q4	5.8	8.66
2003:Q1	5.9	8.80
2003:Q2	6.2	8.97
2003:Q3	6.1	8.89
2003:Q4	5.8	8.83
2004:Q1	5.7	8.86
2004:Q2	5.6	8.95
2004:Q3	5.4	9.06
2004:Q4	5.4	9.05
2005:Q1	5.3	9.09
2005:Q2	5.1	9.08
2005:Q3	5.0	9.02
2005:Q4	5.0	8.91
2006:Q1	4.7	8.78
2006:Q2	4.7	8.65
2006:Q3	4.6	8.39
2006:Q4	4.5	8.05
2007:Q1	4.5	7.85
2007:Q2	4.5	7.58
2007:Q3	4.7	7.41
2007:Q4	4.8	7.40
2008:Q1	5.0	7.30
2008:Q2	5.3	7.32
2008:Q3	6.0	7.56
2008:Q4	6.9	8.02
2009:Q1	8.2	8.61
2009:Q2	9.3	9.30
2009:Q3	9.7	9.67
2009:Q4	10.0	9.83
2010:Q1	9.7	9.97

Note: Staff estimate based on series from Eurostat and ECB Area-Wide Model.

Middle-right panel
U.S. vs. Euro Area: Historical Evidence

Unemployment shocks less likely to lead to persistently high levels of long-term unemployment in the U.S. than in Europe.
Long-term unemployment exerts greater downward pressure on inflation in the U.S. than in Europe.
Differences usually attributed to differences in labor market institutions.

Bottom-left panel
Job Finding Rates by Unemployment Duration

2009:Q4
Number of weeks unemployed	Percent employed in following month
0-4	34.11
5-12	16.94
13-26	13.76
27+	12.55

Bottom-right panel
Potential Consequences of Long-term Unemployment

Depreciation of skills
Deterioration in social networks
Employer bias against the long-term unemployed
Prevents youth from gaining a foothold in the labor market

Exhibit 6
Financial Markets

Top panel
European Ten-year Government Debt Spreads*

Basis points
Date	Greece	Portugal	Ireland	Spain	Italy
1 December 2009	172.9	57.5	164.4	58.1	83.5
2 December 2009	168.7	56.9	162.8	58.3	82.0
3 December 2009	171.3	56.0	160.9	57.3	81.1
4 December 2009	176.5	52.8	159.8	54.3	76.1
7 December 2009	195.2	58.0	163.5	55.9	76.7
8 December 2009	221.0	65.5	170.5	60.7	82.8
9 December 2009	246.8	77.4	189.7	69.5	87.5
10 December 2009	227.0	74.4	178.5	68.6	85.4
11 December 2009	208.4	68.8	165.9	62.6	81.9
14 December 2009	228.8	67.4	164.2	61.2	82.3
15 December 2009	249.8	67.8	162.4	61.1	79.9
16 December 2009	231.8	66.6	153.7	59.1	79.9
17 December 2009	253.2	71.7	158.7	64.6	82.5
18 December 2009	265.9	78.6	160.5	70.5	84.0
21 December 2009	276.9	81.5	159.1	73.7	84.4
22 December 2009	248.3	72.8	151.8	65.9	76.3
23 December 2009	242.3	69.5	147.7	63.3	72.7
24 December 2009	241.7	68.6	147.7	62.1	72.6
25 December 2009	242.4	69.4	148.2	62.6	73.1
28 December 2009	238.0	68.8	147.4	60.6	71.2
29 December 2009	236.6	67.5	146.2	58.7	73.5
30 December 2009	238.7	68.8	144.7	58.8	75.4
31 December 2009	238.7	68.2	145.2	59.1	75.5
1 January 2010	238.7	69.0	145.1	59.1	75.5
4 January 2010	233.1	67.3	138.0	57.9	71.7
5 January 2010	227.9	67.6	141.8	59.2	72.8
6 January 2010	227.1	69.1	151.2	62.2	73.9
7 January 2010	227.3	67.3	144.8	61.3	72.4
8 January 2010	220.0	61.2	140.2	57.0	69.3
11 January 2010	217.5	65.8	140.6	61.6	71.0
12 January 2010	234.5	69.4	144.2	63.5	74.2
13 January 2010	257.7	76.4	151.5	65.9	78.6
14 January 2010	277.6	88.6	157.4	69.8	80.6
15 January 2010	273.4	92.9	156.7	70.4	81.1
18 January 2010	268.1	94.3	156.9	72.5	81.2
19 January 2010	264.3	92.3	147.4	73.1	78.6
20 January 2010	293.8	104.4	161.3	79.6	85.2
21 January 2010	288.1	104.4	156.7	80.2	86.8
22 January 2010	304.8	109.2	159.5	81.5	86.3
25 January 2010	297.7	98.0	149.7	74.0	82.9
26 January 2010	303.7	93.3	149.7	82.6	81.7
27 January 2010	355.6	105.5	155.8	90.3	88.6
28 January 2010	396.1	121.6	165.4	98.6	94.8
29 January 2010	365.8	121.4	165.1	92.4	91.9
1 February 2010	344.0	120.7	162.1	84.2	86.3
2 February 2010	353.6	129.1	160.8	86.1	86.1
3 February 2010	349.7	147.0	162.7	88.9	85.6
4 February 2010	352.7	159.2	166.4	96.7	90.1
5 February 2010	350.5	161.3	174.4	100.1	94.4
8 February 2010	362.5	162.7	178.7	99.9	95.0
9 February 2010	324.4	147.4	169.3	90.9	90.1
10 February 2010	282.8	135.2	156.0	79.0	82.4
11 February 2010	273.2	118.4	146.0	76.0	80.8
12 February 2010	296.1	123.9	149.3	79.6	86.3
15 February 2010	304.9	123.4	153.4	82.3	86.0
16 February 2010	320.4	125.0	154.7	81.0	85.5
17 February 2010	318.4	118.4	154.6	80.2	85.2
18 February 2010	329.3	117.5	151.2	77.8	81.7
19 February 2010	317.5	112.1	147.5	75.1	80.8
22 February 2010	315.6	110.0	144.8	72.6	82.0
23 February 2010	332.0	111.7	146.6	74.4	86.2
24 February 2010	338.9	114.6	150.7	75.6	88.8
25 February 2010	355.1	117.4	155.7	79.6	93.6
26 February 2010	326.1	111.4	150.9	76.0	89.5
1 March 2010	316.0	98.6	143.3	71.3	86.9
2 March 2010	304.7	94.4	140.9	73.8	85.3
3 March 2010	285.8	91.6	139.4	73.2	83.0
4 March 2010	297.0	93.5	139.5	75.1	83.6
5 March 2010	291.1	91.0	135.5	70.9	79.9
8 March 2010	306.0	89.3	133.7	68.4	78.9
9 March 2010	313.2	93.4	134.6	71.0	80.3
10 March 2010	309.3	88.1	129.6	68.8	78.0
11 March 2010	314.8	106.0	128.5	69.3	77.9
12 March 2010	305.9	106.8	127.9	69.9	79.1
15 March 2010	305.5	110.4	129.8	71.9	79.7
16 March 2010	299.9	111.1	129.3	71.7	79.5
17 March 2010	299.7	114.7	135.0	73.6	80.5
18 March 2010	313.7	116.2	137.9	75.8	81.9
19 March 2010	323.9	120.6	141.3	77.6	84.5
22 March 2010	337.3	125.8	144.9	78.4	86.4
23 March 2010	324.9	123.9	142.7	76.8	85.4
24 March 2010	328.2	125.9	149.6	75.4	84.1
25 March 2010	312.8	123.8	143.2	71.7	78.4
26 March 2010	305.2	114.4	139.9	68.5	77.2
29 March 2010	316.1	114.2	138.5	69.5	78.6
30 March 2010	333.1	116.0	138.7	70.9	78.7
31 March 2010	343.7	112.7	138.3	72.4	88.9
1 April 2010	345.5	108.7	134.8	71.7	86.4
2 April 2010	345.7	108.1	134.2	71.3	86.0
5 April 2010	345.2	107.9	134.3	71.6	85.8
6 April 2010	383.9	110.2	135.7	73.6	87.0
7 April 2010	405.0	116.2	137.1	75.6	88.5
8 April 2010	426.8	127.8	139.7	76.4	89.1
9 April 2010	398.5	119.9	135.3	71.5	83.3
12 April 2010	349.5	116.7	131.4	66.7	80.9
13 April 2010	366.5	120.4	134.3	70.4	83.4
14 April 2010	394.0	129.2	138.5	72.0	84.8
15 April 2010	400.6	126.3	141.6	71.6	84.1
16 April 2010	430.3	139.4	147.4	74.8	86.5
19 April 2010	453.5	151.8	152.5	76.5	87.2
20 April 2010	478.3	154.8	146.6	76.5	86.4
21 April 2010	501.4	169.3	152.4	79.1	89.5
22 April 2010	578.7	190.6	172.4	88.8	94.7
23 April 2010	559.5	191.0	171.4	92.0	94.8
26 April 2010	651.5	218.2	186.7	100.5	97.7
27 April 2010	675.1	277.0	216.9	112.5	110.9
28 April 2010	693.4	277.2	224.7	108.2	107.7
29 April 2010	597.4	241.5	210.6	99.1	100.7
30 April 2010	594.5	212.2	210.0	101.3	99.8
3 May 2010	543.6	207.0	204.8	97.1	93.7
4 May 2010	644.8	252.0	233.8	115.6	105.8
5 May 2010	731.1	294.5	270.4	131.7	120.5
6 May 2010	851.6	334.7	300.2	162.9	148.9
7 May 2010	965.2	348.8	305.9	164.2	147.1
10 May 2010 (EU/IMF package)	481.1	169.6	176.8	97.2	101.4
11 May 2010	450.6	158.9	164.9	99.0	101.6
12 May 2010	430.1	164.0	163.1	97.2	99.1
13 May 2010	441.6	162.8	163.7	99.0	92.7
14 May 2010	485.4	179.0	174.2	108.4	104.3
17 May 2010	519.2	183.9	183.5	112.4	103.6
18 May 2010	473.4	179.2	179.3	116.9	106.7
19 May 2010	505.6	182.7	182.2	125.8	112.7
20 May 2010	509.6	193.3	196.3	138.6	127.4
21 May 2010	515.8	197.5	200.5	138.6	126.8
24 May 2010	513.3	197.0	201.0	140.5	125.4
25 May 2010	514.8	204.4	215.3	155.7	138.0
26 May 2010	505.2	205.5	216.6	155.2	137.4
27 May 2010	500.0	200.6	214.2	152.4	139.5
28 May 2010	498.5	202.3	214.6	153.0	145.3
31 May 2010	504.7	202.1	214.7	159.8	148.4
1 June 2010	517.5	211.0	223.0	165.2	149.8
2 June 2010	536.9	225.2	229.2	176.7	159.7
3 June 2010	540.4	235.6	233.1	184.2	161.5
4 June 2010	555.7	254.6	252.5	194.4	167.0
7 June 2010	556.0	263.7	258.6	203.8	176.8
8 June 2010	560.7	271.6	258.3	208.2	178.1
9 June 2010	558.5	266.7	253.5	200.4	157.2
10 June 2010	553.1	255.2	248.8	186.5	141.1
11 June 2010	561.6	253.4	254.3	189.6	146.2
14 June 2010	570.1	258.8	263.6	204.2	144.2
15 June 2010	640.8	277.7	281.0	206.4	136.7
16 June 2010	667.0	293.9	289.3	221.1	138.0
17 June 2010	667.6	292.4	290.0	211.1	136.1
18 June 2010	669.2	287.5	281.1	186.3	124.7
21 June 2010	672.1	285.7	269.6	169.8	121.4
22 June 2010	710.6	293.1	271.7	182.5	132.6

* Spread over German bunds. Return to text

[Note: Data for Greece are shown in an inset chart.]

Middle-left panel
European Rescue Plan

European Union: Support up to €60 bn of lending
Special purpose vehicle: Issue up to €440 bn of debt
Bilateral IMF programs
ECB: Implementing program to purchase European sovereign debt
ECB: Modified refinancing operations to provide more term funding
ECB: Reinstituted dollar swaps with Fed

Middle-right panel
Announced Fiscal Consolidation*

	Change in Primary Balance (Percent of GDP)	End Date
Greece	15	2014
Spain	10	2013
Ireland	9	2014
Portugal	8	2013
Italy	3	2012

* Sources: Stability and Growth Program Submissions; for Greece, IMF standby arrangement. Return to text

Bottom-left panel
Debt Projections*

Share of GDP
Period	Greece	Italy	Portugal	Spain
2006	98	107	62	40
2007	96	104	60	36
2008	99	106	63	40
2009	115	115	77	53
2010	133	117	83	63
2011	147	119	89	70
2012	153	118	92	73
2013	158	115	95	74
2014	156	112	95	73
2015	156	110	97	72
2016	158	108	98	71
2017	160	106	100	70
2018	162	104	101	69
2019	163	103	103	68
2020	165	101	105	67

* Staff calculations. Return to text

Bottom-right panel
Key Assumptions Underlying Outlook

European rescue plan and aggressive fiscal consolidation will eventually restore financial market confidence.
Spain and Italy should be able to progressively differentiate themselves.
Unsettled financial conditions through early next year will weigh on global outlook.

Exhibit 7
Euro Area

Top-left panel
Real GDP

Percent change, a.r.
		2010			2011^p
		Q1	Q2^p	H2^p	2011^p
1.	Euro Area	0.8	1.9	1.0	1.2
	January Greenbook	1.6	1.9	2.4	2.7
2.	Germany	0.6	2.9	1.5	1.8
3.	France	0.5	2.1	1.0	1.5
4.	Greece	-4.0	-8.0	-7.0	-0.0
5.	Spain	0.3	0.7	-0.6	0.2

Top-right panel
Contributions to GDP

Percentage points
Period	Total domestic demand	Total domestic demand (January GB)	New exports	New exports (January GB)
2010:H2	0.18	1.98	0.84	0.44
2011	0.52	2.24	0.67	0.41

[Approximate data values for 2011.]

Middle-left panel
Retail Sales

Period	Index, April 2010 = 100
January 2007	102.8
February 2007	103.0
March 2007	104.6
April 2007	104.0
May 2007	103.1
June 2007	104.3
July 2007	104.3
August 2007	104.5
September 2007	104.1
October 2007	104.1
November 2007	103.9
December 2007	103.5
January 2008	104.2
February 2008	104.8
March 2008	103.1
April 2008	103.4
May 2008	104.1
June 2008	102.9
July 2008	102.9
August 2008	102.9
September 2008	103.4
October 2008	102.0
November 2008	102.3
December 2008	101.3
January 2009	101.6
February 2009	100.7
March 2009	100.2
April 2009	101.4
May 2009	100.7
June 2009	100.8
July 2009	101.1
August 2009	100.8
September 2009	100.4
October 2009	100.8
November 2009	100.3
December 2009	101.2
January 2010	100.8
February 2010	100.7
March 2010	101.4
April 2010	100.0

[Data values are approximate.]

Middle-center panel
Exchange Rates

Index, January 2007 = 100
Period	Dollars / euro	Nominal multilateral
January 2007	100.00	100.00
February 2007	100.67	100.44
March 2007	101.95	101.37
April 2007	104.00	102.44
May 2007	104.04	102.20
June 2007	103.29	101.53
July 2007	105.65	102.53
August 2007	104.87	102.28
September 2007	107.06	103.53
October 2007	109.54	104.57
November 2007	113.00	106.59
December 2007	112.05	106.52
January 2008	113.35	107.16
February 2008	113.60	106.83
March 2008	119.45	110.29
April 2008	121.25	111.86
May 2008	119.71	111.18
June 2008	119.77	111.27
July 2008	121.29	111.99
August 2008	115.10	108.91
September 2008	110.38	107.02
October 2008	102.10	103.08
November 2008	98.09	101.98
December 2008	103.99	108.32
January 2009	101.94	107.55
February 2009	98.49	106.25
March 2009	100.44	108.88
April 2009	101.58	107.93
May 2009	105.02	108.57
June 2009	107.86	109.63
July 2009	108.46	110.06
August 2009	109.80	110.49
September 2009	112.18	112.02
October 2009	114.07	112.72
November 2009	114.74	112.48
December 2009	112.20	111.08
January 2010	109.80	108.90
February 2010	105.29	105.80
March 2010	104.44	104.82
April 2010	103.26	103.05
May 2010	96.69	98.73
June 2010	94.03	96.35

Middle-right panel
Policy Rate

Period	Basis points	Jan. GB
1 January 2007	375	ND
2 April 2007	400	ND
1 July 2008	425	ND
1 October 2008	250	ND
1 January 2009	150	ND
1 April 2009	100	ND
Forecast
1 April 2010	100	ND
31 December 2010	100	100
3 January 2011	100	125
1 April 2011	100	150
1 July 2011	100	175
3 October 2011	100	200
30 December 2011	100	200

Bottom-left panel
Inflation

Period	Four-quarter percent change
2007:Q1	1.92
2007:Q2	1.87
2007:Q3	1.87
2007:Q4	2.89
2008:Q1	3.39
2008:Q2	3.62
2008:Q3	3.83
2008:Q4	2.28
2009:Q1	0.97
2009:Q2	0.16
2009:Q3	-0.38
2009:Q4	0.42
2010:Q1	1.12
Forecast
2010:Q2	1.46
2010:Q3	1.37
2010:Q4	1.09
2011:Q1	1.05
2011:Q2	1.12
2011:Q3	1.37
2011:Q4	1.37

Bottom-center panel
Industrial Production

Index, Jan. 2007 = 100
Period	Euro area	Germany	Spain
January 2007	100.00	100.00	100.00
February 2007	100.76	100.73	98.89
March 2007	101.34	101.47	100.57
April 2007	100.22	99.91	97.72
May 2007	100.82	102.11	100.88
June 2007	100.50	102.02	100.93
July 2007	100.71	102.48	98.18
August 2007	101.25	103.21	98.78
September 2007	100.72	103.95	98.34
October 2007	101.90	104.13	100.28
November 2007	102.10	103.85	99.02
December 2007	102.75	104.50	99.52
January 2008	104.22	105.60	100.25
February 2008	104.84	105.96	100.48
March 2008	104.09	105.14	98.11
April 2008	105.16	105.23	97.36
May 2008	100.33	103.58	94.76
June 2008	99.71	104.04	91.17
July 2008	99.07	102.48	93.47
August 2008	98.60	104.77	90.24
September 2008	97.04	102.29	88.90
October 2008	95.36	100.37	85.92
November 2008	92.49	96.24	83.07
December 2008	89.99	92.39	80.17
January 2009	87.11	86.06	79.93
February 2009	85.34	83.39	78.87
March 2009	84.10	83.94	75.56
April 2009	83.20	81.56	77.97
May 2009	82.83	85.14	76.12
June 2009	83.05	86.24	76.85
July 2009	83.33	85.23	76.90
August 2009	83.66	86.79	78.10
September 2009	84.32	89.45	77.33
October 2009	84.61	87.98	77.79
November 2009	85.78	88.62	78.21
December 2009	86.50	87.80	78.77
January 2010	88.22	87.89	77.81
February 2010	88.91	87.71	77.71
March 2010	90.29	91.47	79.52
April 2010	91.07	92.29	79.32

Bottom-right panel
Unemployment

Percent
Period	Euro Area	Germany	Spain
January 2007	7.8	8.9	8.2
February 2007	7.7	8.7	8.1
March 2007	7.6	8.6	8.0
April 2007	7.5	8.5	8.0
May 2007	7.5	8.5	8.0
June 2007	7.5	8.4	8.1
July 2007	7.5	8.3	8.2
August 2007	7.4	8.3	8.4
September 2007	7.4	8.2	8.4
October 2007	7.3	8.1	8.5
November 2007	7.3	8.0	8.6
December 2007	7.4	7.9	8.8
January 2008	7.3	7.8	9.0
February 2008	7.2	7.6	9.2
March 2008	7.2	7.4	9.4
April 2008	7.3	7.4	9.9
May 2008	7.4	7.4	10.5
June 2008	7.5	7.3	11.0
July 2008	7.5	7.2	11.4
August 2008	7.6	7.1	11.8
September 2008	7.7	7.1	12.4
October 2008	7.8	7.1	13.1
November 2008	8.0	7.1	14.0
December 2008	8.2	7.1	14.8
January 2009	8.5	7.2	15.8
February 2009	8.8	7.2	16.7
March 2009	9.1	7.4	17.3
April 2009	9.2	7.6	17.7
May 2009	9.3	7.6	17.9
June 2009	9.4	7.7	18.1
July 2009	9.6	7.6	18.4
August 2009	9.7	7.6	18.6
September 2009	9.8	7.5	19.0
October 2009	9.8	7.5	19.0
November 2009	9.8	7.5	19.0
December 2009	9.9	7.4	19.0
January 2010	9.9	7.4	19.0
February 2010	10.0	7.4	19.2
March 2010	10.0	7.3	19.5
April 2010	10.1	7.1	19.7

Exhibit 8
Foreign Economic Indicator Indexes

Top panel
Real GDP*

Percent change, a.r.
		2009		2010			2011^p
		Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2^p	H2^p	2011^p
1.	Total Foreign	4.4	4.8	4.9	4.3	3.3	3.3
	April Greenbook	4.2	4.7	4.5	3.7	3.8	3.8
2.	Advanced Foreign Economies	0.9	3.1	3.6	3.1	2.3	2.3
3.	Euro Area	1.6	0.5	0.8	1.9	1.0	1.2
4.	United Kingdom	-1.1	1.8	1.2	2.1	2.0	2.2
5.	Canada	0.9	4.9	6.1	4.1	3.3	3.2
6.	Japan	0.4	4.6	5.0	3.8	1.9	1.7
7.	Emerging Market Economies	8.8	6.9	6.5	5.7	4.6	4.6
8.	Emerging Asia ex. China	9.9	5.9	14.6	5.3	3.7	4.6
9.	China	10.8	10.1	11.3	9.5	8.9	8.5
10.	Latin America	7.9	7.1	0.4	5.1	4.0	3.6

* GDP aggregates weighted by shares of U.S. merchandise exports. Staff projections. Return to text

Middle-left panel
Consumption Indicators

Index, Jan. 2007 = 100
Period	Retail sales (Canada)	Consumption index (Japan)
January 2007	100.00	100.00
February 2007	100.03	100.52
March 2007	100.98	99.99
April 2007	101.90	99.84
May 2007	103.03	100.56
June 2007	102.77	99.70
July 2007	102.25	98.39
August 2007	104.06	101.28
September 2007	101.92	99.26
October 2007	103.60	99.49
November 2007	104.96	100.31
December 2007	106.30	100.31
January 2008	106.74	100.78
February 2008	106.50	103.00
March 2008	106.58	100.63
April 2008	106.60	100.33
May 2008	106.47	100.24
June 2008	106.77	100.40
July 2008	106.31	100.77
August 2008	106.06	99.97
September 2008	106.73	100.10
October 2008	106.93	100.01
November 2008	104.35	98.75
December 2008	101.62	97.93
January 2009	102.12	97.15
February 2009	102.18	96.06
March 2009	102.61	96.57
April 2009	103.03	97.62
May 2009	103.49	97.49
June 2009	104.26	97.91
July 2009	104.88	98.05
August 2009	104.87	98.11
September 2009	106.48	98.80
October 2009	106.87	98.90
November 2009	105.87	98.92
December 2009	106.38	99.78
January 2010	106.78	100.19
February 2010	107.49	100.12
March 2010	109.97	100.76
April 2010	ND	100.47

Middle-center panel
Policy Rates

Basis points
Period	Canada	Japan
1 January 2007	425	50
2 July 2007	450	50
1 October 2007	425	50
1 January 2008	350	50
1 April 2008	300	50
1 October 2008	150	10
1 January 2009	50	10
1 April 2009	25	10
Forecast
1 April 2010	50	10
1 July 2010	75	10
1 October 2010	100	10
3 January 2011	125	10
1 April 2011	150	10
1 July 2011	175	10
3 October 2011	200	10
30 December 2011	200	10

Middle-right panel
Industrial Production

Index, Jan. 2007 = 100
Period	Asia ex. China	China	Latin America
January 2007	100.00	100.00	100.00
February 2007	99.43	100.33	100.38
March 2007	100.86	102.12	102.15
April 2007	101.31	103.05	101.54
May 2007	103.06	105.40	102.35
June 2007	101.36	106.15	102.30
July 2007	106.14	107.32	102.46
August 2007	104.16	108.72	102.52
September 2007	102.38	109.99	102.33
October 2007	105.07	111.43	102.73
November 2007	105.40	113.42	101.98
December 2007	106.29	116.08	102.05
January 2008	108.89	115.36	103.70
February 2008	108.32	115.63	104.04
March 2008	109.44	119.02	102.00
April 2008	105.69	120.99	104.15
May 2008	104.19	121.53	102.69
June 2008	105.65	122.90	103.08
July 2008	103.43	122.82	102.34
August 2008	102.73	123.14	101.76
September 2008	103.31	124.99	101.31
October 2008	99.30	120.13	101.52
November 2008	94.51	119.83	97.79
December 2008	88.81	121.09	94.72
January 2009	86.83	126.96	92.65
February 2009	91.86	126.29	93.23
March 2009	91.81	128.68	92.75
April 2009	96.15	129.81	93.81
May 2009	96.85	131.76	92.52
June 2009	99.12	135.40	92.37
July 2009	102.17	136.72	94.57
August 2009	101.28	138.79	94.09
September 2009	102.34	140.55	94.97
October 2009	102.11	140.66	96.21
November 2009	101.60	143.35	96.96
December 2009	107.67	144.72	97.69
January 2010	110.3	146.9	97.5
February 2010	111.6	142.3	98.7
March 2010	111.9	151.6	98.3
April 2010	112.7	153.4	98.5
May 2010	ND	153.4	ND

Note: Aggregates weighted by shares of U.S. merchandise exports. [Approximate data values for 2010.]

Bottom-left panel
Imports

Index, Jan. 2007 = 100
Period	Asia ex. China	China	Latin America
January 2007	100.00	100.00	100.00
February 2007	99.58	100.40	101.70
March 2007	100.76	98.51	103.26
April 2007	104.40	96.87	104.43
May 2007	104.41	101.39	108.11
June 2007	106.85	95.59	108.06
July 2007	105.13	103.73	108.81
August 2007	104.42	109.12	111.76
September 2007	102.52	103.58	111.55
October 2007	112.79	115.04	113.89
November 2007	116.45	117.41	115.79
December 2007	118.80	124.13	116.16
January 2008	129.39	120.88	104.26
February 2008	127.25	127.79	107.94
March 2008	131.67	123.97	99.72
April 2008	134.55	132.90	110.70
May 2008	131.96	135.36	109.30
June 2008	132.18	135.49	111.07
July 2008	140.60	132.98	115.36
August 2008	133.31	136.07	112.03
September 2008	128.83	138.29	111.00
October 2008	120.56	130.06	106.34
November 2008	104.26	97.55	97.10
December 2008	93.12	84.79	86.08
January 2009	85.97	80.17	81.16
February 2009	87.55	87.62	77.68
March 2009	83.49	95.21	76.15
April 2009	87.25	101.96	75.56
May 2009	87.79	101.85	71.92
June 2009	95.26	113.56	76.97
July 2009	97.32	117.47	79.89
August 2009	97.83	114.63	78.60
September 2009	102.01	126.64	83.75
October 2009	108.89	123.80	81.84
November 2009	111.27	126.26	88.63
December 2009	120.72	135.64	92.54
January 2010	120.8	141.6	90.5
February 2010	125.0	153.8	91.2
March 2010	129.5	151.4	91.9
April 2010	129.4	161.3	92.2
May 2010	129.4	156.8	92.1

Note: Aggregates weighted by shares of U.S. merchandise exports. [Approximate data values for 2010.]

Bottom-right panel
Flows to EME Funds

Billions of dollars, weekly
Period	Bond funds	Equity funds
15 January 2010	0.48	1.02
22 January 2010	0.57	0.49
29 January 2010	0.57	0.11
5 February 2010	0.41	-0.64
12 February 2010	0.69	-1.14
19 February 2010	0.30	-0.10
26 February 2010	0.49	0.41
5 March 2010	0.68	0.30
12 March 2010	1.06	1.09
19 March 2010	0.59	1.20
26 March 2010	1.06	0.20
2 April 2010	0.78	0.40
9 April 2010	0.81	1.26
16 April 2010	1.80	0.17
23 April 2010	1.22	1.40
30 April 2010	1.23	0.84
7 May 2010	1.11	-0.83
14 May 2010	0.02	-2.18
21 May 2010	0.53	0.08
28 May 2010	-0.34	-1.70
4 June 2010	0.08	-0.47
11 June 2010	0.84	-0.11
18 June 2010	0.67	0.76

Source: Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (EPFR). [Approximate data values are indicated with emphasis (italics).]

Exhibit 9
The U.S. External Sector

Top-left panel
Broad Real Dollar

Index, Jan. 2008 = 100
Period	Broad Real Dollar	April GB
January 2008	100.00	ND
February 2008	98.77	ND
March 2008	96.88	ND
April 2008	96.47	ND
May 2008	96.84	ND
June 2008	97.35	ND
July 2008	97.05	ND
August 2008	99.44	ND
September 2008	101.80	ND
October 2008	107.51	ND
November 2008	108.43	ND
December 2008	106.72	ND
January 2009	107.73	ND
February 2009	110.68	ND
March 2009	111.04	ND
April 2009	108.34	ND
May 2009	105.09	ND
June 2009	104.30	ND
July 2009	103.99	ND
August 2009	102.77	ND
September 2009	101.90	ND
October 2009	100.37	ND
November 2009	99.76	ND
December 2009	100.10	ND
January 2010	100.39	ND
February 2010	101.70	ND
March 2010	100.73	ND
April 2010	100.07	ND
May 2010	102.57	100.30
June 2010	103.26	100.11
Forecast
July 2010	103.25	99.99
August 2010	103.56	99.83
September 2010	103.50	99.53
October 2010	103.37	99.21
November 2010	103.22	98.89
December 2010	102.85	98.59
January 2011	102.43	98.29
February 2011	102.02	98.00
March 2011	101.46	97.73
April 2011	100.85	97.44
May 2011	100.26	97.16
June 2011	99.70	96.87
July 2011	99.15	96.58
August 2011	98.59	96.28
September 2011	98.03	95.99
October 2011	97.48	95.70
November 2011	96.93	95.41
December 2011	96.37	95.12

Top-right panel
Primary Commodity Prices

Period	WTI oil (Dollars per barrel)	WTI oil April GB	Non-fuel* (Index, Jan. 2008 = 100)	Non-fuel April GB
January 2008	92.95	ND	100.00	ND
February 2008	95.35	ND	106.48	ND
March 2008	105.56	ND	110.31	ND
April 2008	112.57	ND	109.67	ND
May 2008	125.39	ND	108.20	ND
June 2008	133.93	ND	109.08	ND
July 2008	133.44	ND	109.68	ND
August 2008	116.70	ND	103.15	ND
September 2008	103.90	ND	97.78	ND
October 2008	76.66	ND	82.99	ND
November 2008	57.28	ND	76.26	ND
December 2008	41.02	ND	70.00	ND
January 2009	41.74	ND	70.90	ND
February 2009	39.16	ND	69.10	ND
March 2009	47.98	ND	68.69	ND
April 2009	49.79	ND	72.25	ND
May 2009	59.16	ND	76.21	ND
June 2009	69.68	ND	79.16	ND
July 2009	64.09	ND	79.84	ND
August 2009	71.06	ND	84.63	ND
September 2009	69.46	ND	83.62	ND
October 2009	75.82	ND	84.83	ND
November 2009	77.93	ND	87.94	ND
December 2009	74.43	ND	91.17	ND
January 2010	78.39	ND	92.86	ND
February 2010	76.42	ND	90.72	ND
March 2010	81.24	ND	93.50	ND
April 2010	84.48	ND	100.34	ND
May 2010	73.84	83.45	94.68	97.53
June 2010	74.33	83.85	92.28	97.75
Forecast
July 2010	75.12	85.25	92.17	97.98
August 2010	76.28	86.14	92.22	98.08
September 2010	77.16	86.81	92.21	98.12
October 2010	77.93	87.30	92.32	98.21
November 2010	78.59	87.69	92.45	98.32
December 2010	79.16	88.07	92.66	98.47
January 2011	79.58	88.34	92.89	98.65
February 2011	79.99	88.60	93.07	98.81
March 2011	80.40	88.86	93.25	98.97
April 2011	80.80	89.09	93.40	99.08
May 2011	81.19	89.29	93.53	99.19
June 2011	81.56	89.46	93.65	99.27
July 2011	81.89	89.58	93.78	99.37
August 2011	82.11	89.69	93.83	99.42
September 2011	82.27	89.81	93.87	99.45
October 2011	82.42	89.94	93.90	99.49
November 2011	82.58	90.09	93.92	99.54
December 2011	82.78	90.28	93.95	99.60

* IMF index, weighted by shares of U.S. imports. Return to table

Middle-left panel
Real Exports

Period	Percent change, a.r.	April GB
2008:Q1	-0.13	ND
2008:Q2	12.10	ND
2008:Q3	-3.60	ND
2008:Q4	-19.46	ND
2009:Q1	-29.94	ND
2009:Q2	-4.14	ND
2009:Q3	17.81	ND
2009:Q4	22.81	ND
2010:Q1	11.24	ND
Forecast
2010:Q2	8.24	8.76
2010:Q3	7.56	9.19
2010:Q4	7.74	9.70
2011:Q1	7.33	9.35
2011:Q2	7.17	9.09
2011:Q3	7.42	9.10
2011:Q4	7.62	8.94

Middle-right panel
Real Imports

Period	Percent change, a.r.	April GB
2008:Q1	-2.48	ND
2008:Q2	-5.02	ND
2008:Q3	-2.23	ND
2008:Q4	-16.74	ND
2009:Q1	-36.36	ND
2009:Q2	-14.75	ND
2009:Q3	21.27	ND
2009:Q4	15.78	ND
2010:Q1	14.97	ND
Forecast
2010:Q2	8.10	6.22
2010:Q3	8.10	9.31
2010:Q4	5.72	7.77
2011:Q1	7.15	7.89
2011:Q2	6.89	6.81
2011:Q3	8.07	8.46
2011:Q4	5.68	6.57

Bottom panel
Trade in Real Goods and Services

	2009	2010			2011^p
	2009	Q1	Q2^p	H2^p	2011^p
Annualized percent change
1. Exports	-0.7	11.2	8.2	7.6	7.4
2. Imports	-6.6	15.0	8.1	6.9	6.9
Contribution to Real GDP Growth (percentage points, a.r.)
3. Net Exports	1.0	-0.9	-0.2	-0.1	-0.2
4. Revision from April Greenbook	-0.0	-0.7	-0.3	0.0	-0.1
5. Revision assuming no change in U.S. GDP forecast				-0.1	-0.3
Memo:
6. Current Account Balance (% of GDP)*	-2.7	-3.0	-2.8	-3.0	-3.2

* June Tealbook, updated with Q1 BOP data. Return to table

Exhibit 10
Banking Sector Vulnerabilities

Top-left panel
European Banking Sector Losses

European banks experienced substantial losses on loans and securities in aftermath of global financial crisis.
IMF estimated in April that euro-area and U.K. banks faced about $350 billion in additional writedowns on top of the $750 billion they have recognized since 2007.
Capital, loan loss reserves, and retained earnings should cover expected losses.

Top-right panel
Capital and Loan Loss Reserves 2009

Share of total assets
	Common equity	Loan loss reserves
U.K.	5.1	1.2
Germany	4.4	0.8
France	3.6	1.2
Italy	7.9	3.1
Spain	6.0	1.7

[Data values are approximate.]

Source: Bankscope.

Middle-left panel
Sovereign Support for Banks in 2008

In the fall of 2008, European countries:

Substantially expanded the maximum amount of retail deposits guaranteed.
Guaranteed or sold guarantees on nondeposit liabilities, subject to very high caps (e.g. 17% of GDP for France and Germany).
Allotted sizeable funds for capital injections.

Middle-right panel
Five-year CDS Premia of Financial Institutions*

Basis points
Date	United States	Europe ex. U.K.
1 January 2007	15.23	8.77
2 January 2007	15.06	8.58
3 January 2007	15.16	8.58
4 January 2007	14.60	8.59
5 January 2007	14.19	8.67
8 January 2007	14.11	8.69
9 January 2007	14.08	8.65
10 January 2007	14.10	8.68
11 January 2007	13.90	8.60
12 January 2007	13.82	8.58
15 January 2007	13.82	8.80
16 January 2007	13.82	8.80
17 January 2007	13.71	8.80
18 January 2007	13.73	8.80
19 January 2007	13.61	8.86
22 January 2007	13.76	8.86
23 January 2007	13.47	8.77
24 January 2007	13.25	8.77
25 January 2007	12.98	8.79
26 January 2007	12.89	8.71
29 January 2007	13.00	8.71
30 January 2007	12.79	8.70
31 January 2007	12.74	8.80
1 February 2007	12.65	8.80
2 February 2007	12.64	8.57
5 February 2007	12.66	8.73
6 February 2007	13.91	8.59
7 February 2007	13.99	8.61
8 February 2007	13.94	8.59
9 February 2007	13.62	8.50
12 February 2007	13.68	8.52
13 February 2007	13.57	8.33
14 February 2007	13.44	8.47
15 February 2007	13.11	8.48
16 February 2007	12.98	8.46
19 February 2007	12.78	8.44
20 February 2007	13.04	8.28
21 February 2007	13.24	8.24
22 February 2007	12.85	8.13
23 February 2007	13.24	8.08
26 February 2007	13.57	7.89
27 February 2007	13.91	7.89
28 February 2007	13.61	7.81
1 March 2007	13.43	7.83
2 March 2007	13.49	7.83
5 March 2007	14.00	8.00
6 March 2007	13.63	8.04
7 March 2007	13.41	7.89
8 March 2007	13.13	7.92
9 March 2007	13.31	7.89
12 March 2007	13.12	8.18
13 March 2007	13.87	8.69
14 March 2007	14.62	10.03
15 March 2007	14.66	9.82
16 March 2007	16.12	9.82
19 March 2007	16.32	9.47
20 March 2007	16.06	9.46
21 March 2007	15.10	9.01
22 March 2007	14.52	8.79
23 March 2007	14.09	8.79
26 March 2007	13.93	8.38
27 March 2007	14.14	8.42
28 March 2007	14.32	8.77
29 March 2007	14.34	8.52
30 March 2007	14.15	8.44
2 April 2007	14.65	8.43
3 April 2007	14.72	8.41
4 April 2007	14.84	8.46
5 April 2007	14.62	8.36
6 April 2007	14.72	8.36
9 April 2007	14.65	8.38
10 April 2007	14.38	8.36
11 April 2007	14.14	8.36
12 April 2007	14.24	8.47
13 April 2007	14.36	8.55
16 April 2007	14.76	8.56
17 April 2007	15.84	8.57
18 April 2007	15.98	8.56
19 April 2007	16.59	8.56
20 April 2007	15.55	8.61
23 April 2007	15.50	8.50
24 April 2007	14.95	8.67
25 April 2007	14.89	8.72
26 April 2007	14.88	8.78
27 April 2007	14.83	8.84
30 April 2007	14.81	8.92
1 May 2007	14.65	9.01
2 May 2007	14.72	8.98
3 May 2007	14.89	8.96
4 May 2007	14.93	8.99
7 May 2007	14.82	9.00
8 May 2007	14.87	8.91
9 May 2007	14.25	8.90
10 May 2007	14.28	8.84
11 May 2007	14.26	8.86
14 May 2007	14.16	8.86
15 May 2007	14.12	8.84
16 May 2007	14.20	8.79
17 May 2007	14.25	8.74
18 May 2007	14.12	8.68
21 May 2007	ND	ND
22 May 2007	14.10	8.75
23 May 2007	14.22	8.90
24 May 2007	14.22	8.94
25 May 2007	14.30	9.02
28 May 2007	14.30	9.05
29 May 2007	14.80	9.00
30 May 2007	14.88	9.11
31 May 2007	14.82	9.05
1 June 2007	14.87	8.98
4 June 2007	14.79	8.91
5 June 2007	14.81	8.75
6 June 2007	14.48	8.76
7 June 2007	14.67	8.76
8 June 2007	14.89	8.87
11 June 2007	14.83	8.92
12 June 2007	15.01	9.01
13 June 2007	15.20	8.99
14 June 2007	15.26	8.94
15 June 2007	15.80	8.99
18 June 2007	15.85	9.02
19 June 2007	16.40	8.88
20 June 2007	16.79	8.91
21 June 2007	17.28	9.05
22 June 2007	17.60	8.91
25 June 2007	18.12	9.55
26 June 2007	18.16	9.83
27 June 2007	17.73	10.59
28 June 2007	17.81	10.71
29 June 2007	17.77	10.98
2 July 2007	17.50	11.49
3 July 2007	17.34	11.31
4 July 2007	17.44	11.26
5 July 2007	18.05	11.31
6 July 2007	18.54	11.22
9 July 2007	18.69	11.43
10 July 2007	19.10	11.62
11 July 2007	20.99	12.32
12 July 2007	20.22	12.44
13 July 2007	20.46	12.36
16 July 2007	20.46	12.34
17 July 2007	20.90	12.55
18 July 2007	21.62	13.63
19 July 2007	21.79	13.95
20 July 2007	23.30	16.38
23 July 2007	24.43	16.81
24 July 2007	25.48	18.04
25 July 2007	26.11	18.15
26 July 2007	30.25	23.12
27 July 2007	33.82	31.03
30 July 2007	38.17	36.30
31 July 2007	35.70	31.38
1 August 2007	38.37	32.65
2 August 2007	39.09	32.19
3 August 2007	41.46	33.54
6 August 2007	44.17	37.35
7 August 2007	43.27	36.06
8 August 2007	39.98	32.64
9 August 2007	41.44	34.83
10 August 2007	40.79	36.57
13 August 2007	41.54	36.31
14 August 2007	43.27	39.17
15 August 2007	43.27	39.17
16 August 2007	46.35	46.85
17 August 2007	46.12	45.25
20 August 2007	43.55	42.32
21 August 2007	44.46	42.80
22 August 2007	42.03	41.07
23 August 2007	40.86	38.61
24 August 2007	42.60	39.45
27 August 2007	43.15	39.70
28 August 2007	43.34	39.20
29 August 2007	45.04	39.26
30 August 2007	45.79	41.47
31 August 2007	45.43	40.26
3 September 2007	45.46	40.30
4 September 2007	45.40	40.72
5 September 2007	45.12	40.41
6 September 2007	44.91	41.30
7 September 2007	45.59	42.29
10 September 2007	45.95	43.83
11 September 2007	46.66	43.23
12 September 2007	46.97	42.90
13 September 2007	44.79	42.14
14 September 2007	43.92	41.40
17 September 2007	43.01	40.87
18 September 2007	40.00	38.50
19 September 2007	36.50	36.10
20 September 2007	34.64	33.68
21 September 2007	34.23	30.01
24 September 2007	32.94	26.84
25 September 2007	34.20	27.77
26 September 2007	32.96	27.98
27 September 2007	33.09	28.45
28 September 2007	33.36	28.88
1 October 2007	33.79	29.59
2 October 2007	33.17	29.08
3 October 2007	33.37	28.56
4 October 2007	32.54	28.44
5 October 2007	32.40	28.57
8 October 2007	32.40	27.47
9 October 2007	32.54	24.18
10 October 2007	32.05	23.40
11 October 2007	31.85	22.65
12 October 2007	31.52	22.57
15 October 2007	31.57	22.92
16 October 2007	31.14	23.70
17 October 2007	33.00	24.58
18 October 2007	35.21	26.19
19 October 2007	35.20	27.74
22 October 2007	35.79	29.72
23 October 2007	37.02	28.07
24 October 2007	37.88	29.36
25 October 2007	37.86	30.15
26 October 2007	39.45	31.65
29 October 2007	37.86	32.74
30 October 2007	38.32	32.72
31 October 2007	39.29	33.27
1 November 2007	42.24	36.72
2 November 2007	43.82	40.23
5 November 2007	46.91	42.29
6 November 2007	45.79	40.64
7 November 2007	50.43	41.53
8 November 2007	54.60	44.70
9 November 2007	56.10	46.71
12 November 2007	55.57	47.98
13 November 2007	56.63	48.94
14 November 2007	52.78	45.03
15 November 2007	53.42	44.92
16 November 2007	53.42	46.81
19 November 2007	54.37	48.97
20 November 2007	55.92	50.75
21 November 2007	66.25	54.80
22 November 2007	67.81	55.82
23 November 2007	67.27	55.90
26 November 2007	68.27	54.85
27 November 2007	65.72	56.01
28 November 2007	57.96	51.25
29 November 2007	58.07	50.28
30 November 2007	56.25	47.86
3 December 2007	58.28	48.82
4 December 2007	59.22	49.49
5 December 2007	56.65	49.72
6 December 2007	54.26	50.74
7 December 2007	54.15	50.98
10 December 2007	51.52	47.03
11 December 2007	52.48	44.18
12 December 2007	52.52	43.33
13 December 2007	52.67	44.06
14 December 2007	55.55	42.71
17 December 2007	56.89	42.77
18 December 2007	58.52	44.28
19 December 2007	58.68	44.49
20 December 2007	59.24	44.43
21 December 2007	60.25	45.41
24 December 2007	60.31	45.32
25 December 2007	60.31	45.35
26 December 2007	60.31	45.39
27 December 2007	60.32	45.39
28 December 2007	60.32	45.27
31 December 2007	60.26	45.22
1 January 2008	60.26	45.22
2 January 2008	52.50	45.44
3 January 2008	54.32	47.16
4 January 2008	58.26	49.34
7 January 2008	61.45	51.82
8 January 2008	62.72	53.58
9 January 2008	67.57	54.37
10 January 2008	73.15	56.03
11 January 2008	75.20	57.12
14 January 2008	74.21	58.62
15 January 2008	74.43	55.97
16 January 2008	78.22	57.04
17 January 2008	84.30	59.87
18 January 2008	88.47	64.85
21 January 2008	88.74	71.89
22 January 2008	90.37	78.98
23 January 2008	80.61	77.89
24 January 2008	77.00	71.10
25 January 2008	75.39	69.80
28 January 2008	76.33	72.27
29 January 2008	76.54	72.87
30 January 2008	77.70	70.69
31 January 2008	75.78	74.77
1 February 2008	75.50	78.22
4 February 2008	78.99	82.35
5 February 2008	82.60	82.80
6 February 2008	84.18	86.97
7 February 2008	87.60	87.69
8 February 2008	91.88	89.75
11 February 2008	101.76	92.59
12 February 2008	103.47	97.78
13 February 2008	106.80	98.13
14 February 2008	108.22	93.59
15 February 2008	118.82	96.70
18 February 2008	119.34	102.22
19 February 2008	123.45	107.63
20 February 2008	133.82	114.06
21 February 2008	133.76	112.36
22 February 2008	132.43	112.76
25 February 2008	130.52	106.83
26 February 2008	117.05	101.25
27 February 2008	119.39	101.64
28 February 2008	125.32	106.62
29 February 2008	148.66	112.73
3 March 2008	148.93	115.46
4 March 2008	155.80	114.74
5 March 2008	153.00	113.89
6 March 2008	169.61	119.77
7 March 2008	171.54	131.93
10 March 2008	180.08	136.49
11 March 2008	180.40	142.18
12 March 2008	209.49	142.46
13 March 2008	212.78	151.59
14 March 2008	211.89	156.62
17 March 2008	219.79	157.97
18 March 2008	168.33	140.48
19 March 2008	157.05	126.43
20 March 2008	155.52	125.02
21 March 2008	153.77	125.02
24 March 2008	135.11	125.11
25 March 2008	135.04	101.10
26 March 2008	141.18	104.75
27 March 2008	145.18	106.24
28 March 2008	147.28	106.42
31 March 2008	145.81	110.81
1 April 2008	136.11	107.70
2 April 2008	124.19	97.86
3 April 2008	118.76	92.70
4 April 2008	115.44	86.46
7 April 2008	112.42	79.57
8 April 2008	115.10	84.19
9 April 2008	121.57	88.66
10 April 2008	126.15	94.11
11 April 2008	126.90	92.95
14 April 2008	127.06	99.65
15 April 2008	123.13	96.55
16 April 2008	110.33	88.51
17 April 2008	108.58	81.47
18 April 2008	93.57	74.37
21 April 2008	96.07	75.32
22 April 2008	97.45	67.29
23 April 2008	99.37	66.53
24 April 2008	101.54	67.79
25 April 2008	98.16	66.61
28 April 2008	95.38	63.31
29 April 2008	96.29	64.44
30 April 2008	90.77	66.40
1 May 2008	88.37	62.49
2 May 2008	82.42	58.59
5 May 2008	82.30	58.74
6 May 2008	85.94	59.24
7 May 2008	88.31	60.42
8 May 2008	89.90	62.16
9 May 2008	89.62	63.79
12 May 2008	89.62	63.15
13 May 2008	88.61	64.13
14 May 2008	86.39	63.34
15 May 2008	82.67	61.42
16 May 2008	81.53	59.06
19 May 2008	80.76	59.21
20 May 2008	81.86	60.15
21 May 2008	84.18	63.21
22 May 2008	87.39	64.61
23 May 2008	90.29	65.76
26 May 2008	90.29	65.76
27 May 2008	91.18	70.45
28 May 2008	90.05	65.26
29 May 2008	90.29	63.60
30 May 2008	89.69	63.66
2 June 2008	90.57	64.80
3 June 2008	93.67	65.52
4 June 2008	95.75	67.80
5 June 2008	93.55	67.02
6 June 2008	95.33	68.97
9 June 2008	94.98	72.43
10 June 2008	96.21	73.98
11 June 2008	96.59	72.74
12 June 2008	96.34	71.82
13 June 2008	95.68	70.52
16 June 2008	94.79	67.61
17 June 2008	92.80	66.88
18 June 2008	93.14	67.76
19 June 2008	94.42	70.76
20 June 2008	97.24	76.37
23 June 2008	101.59	77.74
24 June 2008	103.52	83.53
25 June 2008	104.60	83.33
26 June 2008	113.60	90.39
27 June 2008	114.75	95.53
30 June 2008	115.67	94.43
1 July 2008	120.99	96.75
2 July 2008	121.53	95.80
3 July 2008	126.15	96.60
4 July 2008	123.92	96.30
7 July 2008	123.77	96.06
8 July 2008	124.17	96.78
9 July 2008	121.45	88.79
10 July 2008	123.14	88.56
11 July 2008	124.97	90.83
14 July 2008	133.49	87.86
15 July 2008	146.36	88.12
16 July 2008	135.62	91.50
17 July 2008	131.83	86.19
18 July 2008	131.33	85.19
21 July 2008	131.65	81.09
22 July 2008	131.20	80.90
23 July 2008	126.95	77.98
24 July 2008	130.50	75.40
25 July 2008	132.48	76.38
28 July 2008	131.72	75.67
29 July 2008	131.49	78.51
30 July 2008	130.11	76.62
31 July 2008	130.48	79.46
1 August 2008	133.59	82.42
4 August 2008	133.61	83.09
5 August 2008	132.94	79.94
6 August 2008	132.74	80.92
7 August 2008	132.71	81.75
8 August 2008	132.87	82.07
11 August 2008	132.59	80.43
12 August 2008	132.68	79.21
13 August 2008	142.46	80.76
14 August 2008	142.52	83.46
15 August 2008	134.20	81.94
18 August 2008	134.95	81.86
19 August 2008	139.97	86.14
20 August 2008	150.65	86.93
21 August 2008	151.90	90.45
22 August 2008	152.69	89.61
25 August 2008	152.41	89.61
26 August 2008	155.08	92.68
27 August 2008	155.18	94.21
28 August 2008	149.58	94.02
29 August 2008	149.48	89.82
1 September 2008	149.60	90.26
2 September 2008	148.03	85.26
3 September 2008	151.70	89.23
4 September 2008	155.59	91.75
5 September 2008	159.19	95.74
8 September 2008	152.24	84.18
9 September 2008	158.67	89.93
10 September 2008	160.67	90.02
11 September 2008	162.67	93.93
12 September 2008	162.33	92.95
15 September 2008	189.23	120.22
16 September 2008	205.52	145.49
17 September 2008	216.00	151.59
18 September 2008	195.49	145.96
19 September 2008	179.73	119.25
22 September 2008	169.23	107.05
23 September 2008	177.73	110.45
24 September 2008	190.17	115.33
25 September 2008	189.94	117.53
26 September 2008	190.74	131.07
29 September 2008	200.00	141.11
30 September 2008	199.68	137.41
1 October 2008	200.79	137.33
2 October 2008	200.79	135.00
3 October 2008	200.79	144.48
6 October 2008	247.25	142.30
7 October 2008	205.00	130.11
8 October 2008	200.79	124.75
9 October 2008	199.33	124.75
10 October 2008	233.14	124.75
13 October 2008	226.45	112.61
14 October 2008	181.21	97.48
15 October 2008	188.39	103.89
16 October 2008	196.03	100.06
17 October 2008	197.50	104.47
20 October 2008	194.98	107.76
21 October 2008	188.70	102.58
22 October 2008	212.77	110.50
23 October 2008	222.62	115.25
24 October 2008	246.12	124.69
27 October 2008	230.30	128.25
28 October 2008	231.00	121.83
29 October 2008	224.81	116.80
30 October 2008	225.00	109.74
31 October 2008	225.00	105.88
3 November 2008	220.00	105.14
4 November 2008	208.10	102.42
5 November 2008	209.47	102.80
6 November 2008	215.00	106.75
7 November 2008	216.95	107.26
10 November 2008	209.13	106.40
11 November 2008	210.00	107.38
12 November 2008	211.45	110.99
13 November 2008	212.45	111.97
14 November 2008	224.82	110.36
17 November 2008	227.14	113.05
18 November 2008	229.50	118.99
19 November 2008	252.78	127.80
20 November 2008	283.50	135.44
21 November 2008	291.00	130.84
24 November 2008	275.17	132.94
25 November 2008	256.75	130.05
26 November 2008	261.33	128.78
27 November 2008	261.33	128.32
28 November 2008	266.05	125.99
1 December 2008	270.14	130.50
2 December 2008	276.93	132.66
3 December 2008	296.93	144.03
4 December 2008	299.18	147.86
5 December 2008	304.96	154.80
8 December 2008	298.88	147.93
9 December 2008	269.98	141.33
10 December 2008	254.80	139.71
11 December 2008	255.01	144.62
12 December 2008	257.80	149.59
15 December 2008	255.00	149.53
16 December 2008	243.08	148.88
17 December 2008	226.48	150.45
18 December 2008	218.23	144.80
19 December 2008	218.00	144.45
22 December 2008	218.50	147.03
23 December 2008	211.65	147.00
24 December 2008	212.46	147.00
25 December 2008	212.04	147.00
26 December 2008	215.40	147.00
29 December 2008	215.40	147.00
30 December 2008	214.48	143.46
31 December 2008	214.02	143.07
1 January 2009	214.02	143.07
2 January 2009	214.02	144.26
5 January 2009	197.09	142.10
6 January 2009	200.49	132.68
7 January 2009	187.50	122.96
8 January 2009	189.07	127.50
9 January 2009	182.48	125.29
12 January 2009	182.53	126.27
13 January 2009	187.80	129.20
14 January 2009	212.32	130.43
15 January 2009	210.19	133.56
16 January 2009	206.95	130.13
19 January 2009	208.79	129.36
20 January 2009	219.00	136.01
21 January 2009	225.95	139.92
22 January 2009	232.34	140.15
23 January 2009	228.07	145.79
26 January 2009	225.00	140.81
27 January 2009	217.50	134.92
28 January 2009	207.50	133.35
29 January 2009	225.79	135.21
30 January 2009	225.79	137.77
2 February 2009	225.79	138.93
3 February 2009	225.79	137.76
4 February 2009	220.92	136.22
5 February 2009	231.08	135.30
6 February 2009	225.92	138.26
9 February 2009	229.89	138.08
10 February 2009	233.33	137.13
11 February 2009	216.08	135.69
12 February 2009	224.28	138.42
13 February 2009	230.19	137.85
16 February 2009	230.73	140.00
17 February 2009	243.46	150.40
18 February 2009	251.39	158.06
19 February 2009	248.33	152.02
20 February 2009	264.25	160.51
23 February 2009	283.75	167.15
24 February 2009	280.33	173.67
25 February 2009	277.92	163.98
26 February 2009	275.11	157.85
27 February 2009	275.24	164.15
2 March 2009	291.25	176.54
3 March 2009	302.67	179.53
4 March 2009	313.92	172.04
5 March 2009	331.95	183.54
6 March 2009	329.21	203.73
9 March 2009	334.88	206.09
10 March 2009	336.66	196.05
11 March 2009	299.94	197.07
12 March 2009	299.61	206.49
13 March 2009	288.85	215.65
16 March 2009	282.36	198.70
17 March 2009	287.50	197.38
18 March 2009	286.96	197.39
19 March 2009	290.42	183.44
20 March 2009	287.50	180.57
23 March 2009	288.67	175.59
24 March 2009	290.56	175.86
25 March 2009	288.75	176.84
26 March 2009	287.50	173.29
27 March 2009	288.04	177.17
30 March 2009	300.82	182.57
31 March 2009	295.08	182.09
1 April 2009	295.47	185.08
2 April 2009	286.25	179.67
3 April 2009	286.25	175.92
6 April 2009	286.75	169.24
7 April 2009	295.18	170.75
8 April 2009	283.83	166.34
9 April 2009	275.98	163.75
10 April 2009	275.96	163.75
13 April 2009	278.44	163.75
14 April 2009	262.23	157.66
15 April 2009	255.91	155.44
16 April 2009	236.49	150.90
17 April 2009	229.36	148.11
20 April 2009	249.97	150.12
21 April 2009	249.25	155.01
22 April 2009	259.35	153.97
23 April 2009	249.66	149.67
24 April 2009	245.66	148.58
27 April 2009	248.39	155.55
28 April 2009	247.22	153.00
29 April 2009	235.77	148.57
30 April 2009	244.31	147.33
1 May 2009	245.42	147.00
4 May 2009	236.74	146.83
5 May 2009	233.18	140.10
6 May 2009	211.11	135.71
7 May 2009	199.70	123.96
8 May 2009	188.17	120.46
11 May 2009	209.90	119.80
12 May 2009	185.65	123.61
13 May 2009	208.58	123.15
14 May 2009	206.91	121.85
15 May 2009	205.64	120.90
18 May 2009	195.10	120.94
19 May 2009	210.26	114.02
20 May 2009	200.19	107.41
21 May 2009	186.30	107.79
22 May 2009	185.17	108.67
25 May 2009	185.11	108.67
26 May 2009	182.60	111.05
27 May 2009	172.63	114.78
28 May 2009	172.63	120.20
29 May 2009	171.99	120.06
1 June 2009	151.16	117.46
2 June 2009	151.14	109.27
3 June 2009	164.68	116.03
4 June 2009	169.81	117.64
5 June 2009	167.22	116.35
8 June 2009	167.68	116.46
9 June 2009	166.31	116.28
10 June 2009	160.39	113.60
11 June 2009	164.56	113.61
12 June 2009	170.89	113.58
15 June 2009	174.92	115.28
16 June 2009	179.38	117.34
17 June 2009	179.58	119.39
18 June 2009	192.76	119.74
19 June 2009	191.85	118.50
22 June 2009	186.27	120.26
23 June 2009	187.10	121.41
24 June 2009	187.16	119.47
25 June 2009	187.15	121.50
26 June 2009	203.55	120.96
29 June 2009	202.25	120.07
30 June 2009	201.10	115.55
1 July 2009	195.68	113.40
2 July 2009	202.70	113.03
3 July 2009	202.43	113.42
6 July 2009	206.31	114.70
7 July 2009	206.95	114.84
8 July 2009	204.34	115.83
9 July 2009	202.68	116.77
10 July 2009	203.46	117.60
13 July 2009	200.57	121.35
14 July 2009	198.19	119.90
15 July 2009	188.42	117.10
16 July 2009	187.29	116.99
17 July 2009	181.07	114.94
20 July 2009	165.39	109.29
21 July 2009	162.45	104.47
22 July 2009	172.22	104.54
23 July 2009	162.39	100.47
24 July 2009	157.19	99.58
27 July 2009	152.05	97.95
28 July 2009	148.70	96.83
29 July 2009	146.67	96.60
30 July 2009	141.95	90.78
31 July 2009	138.25	90.62
3 August 2009	139.35	90.18
4 August 2009	137.32	91.63
5 August 2009	137.31	92.57
6 August 2009	130.16	92.66
7 August 2009	136.04	93.12
10 August 2009	131.40	91.75
11 August 2009	134.49	95.12
12 August 2009	152.44	97.72
13 August 2009	148.18	95.32
14 August 2009	155.29	96.02
17 August 2009	159.30	100.43
18 August 2009	148.29	99.70
19 August 2009	154.01	102.57
20 August 2009	153.99	100.58
21 August 2009	146.78	97.54
24 August 2009	147.27	94.74
25 August 2009	146.80	94.54
26 August 2009	146.02	92.90
27 August 2009	147.03	93.73
28 August 2009	145.19	93.30
31 August 2009	150.00	93.70
1 September 2009	153.37	94.17
2 September 2009	153.87	95.53
3 September 2009	153.60	94.93
4 September 2009	153.60	94.82
7 September 2009	153.60	93.87
8 September 2009	148.02	90.99
9 September 2009	146.95	90.54
10 September 2009	144.83	89.57
11 September 2009	138.66	88.27
14 September 2009	139.47	87.37
15 September 2009	129.84	85.64
16 September 2009	113.48	85.12
17 September 2009	113.80	83.41
18 September 2009	114.05	85.61
21 September 2009	114.22	86.16
22 September 2009	112.60	84.74
23 September 2009	109.30	78.63
24 September 2009	109.49	80.86
25 September 2009	114.22	84.10
28 September 2009	114.22	81.18
29 September 2009	119.17	79.88
30 September 2009	119.80	80.27
1 October 2009	127.42	87.26
2 October 2009	126.19	92.02
5 October 2009	117.84	89.83
6 October 2009	116.78	89.07
7 October 2009	121.92	90.05
8 October 2009	121.62	89.53
9 October 2009	121.49	88.54
12 October 2009	125.78	88.84
13 October 2009	124.85	88.49
14 October 2009	119.28	85.35
15 October 2009	119.27	84.20
16 October 2009	122.92	86.01
19 October 2009	119.28	89.15
20 October 2009	124.60	86.90
21 October 2009	119.07	86.92
22 October 2009	119.07	87.37
23 October 2009	115.11	85.59
26 October 2009	114.23	85.08
27 October 2009	114.23	86.35
28 October 2009	114.21	90.12
29 October 2009	120.03	90.27
30 October 2009	118.66	90.67
2 November 2009	122.71	92.24
3 November 2009	121.76	93.62
4 November 2009	122.47	92.13
5 November 2009	122.76	90.86
6 November 2009	122.76	91.16
9 November 2009	119.19	89.83
10 November 2009	119.19	89.99
11 November 2009	122.48	87.54
12 November 2009	119.19	88.28
13 November 2009	118.65	88.55
16 November 2009	118.44	87.68
17 November 2009	122.39	88.30
18 November 2009	123.40	90.93
19 November 2009	124.57	94.02
20 November 2009	123.06	95.40
23 November 2009	122.39	92.44
24 November 2009	120.25	95.37
25 November 2009	119.65	94.92
26 November 2009	125.42	96.23
27 November 2009	127.99	97.26
30 November 2009	126.68	95.64
1 December 2009	124.26	92.85
2 December 2009	124.24	91.16
3 December 2009	116.85	88.66
4 December 2009	113.88	88.13
7 December 2009	113.52	88.36
8 December 2009	115.13	88.70
9 December 2009	112.72	89.23
10 December 2009	104.94	90.05
11 December 2009	102.12	89.09
14 December 2009	91.75	87.12
15 December 2009	93.30	86.35
16 December 2009	92.37	85.87
17 December 2009	97.64	86.30
18 December 2009	99.83	85.43
21 December 2009	100.04	85.17
22 December 2009	99.88	84.49
23 December 2009	100.14	83.80
24 December 2009	100.70	83.87
25 December 2009	100.70	83.87
28 December 2009	103.19	83.62
29 December 2009	96.24	82.18
30 December 2009	95.76	81.93
31 December 2009	90.81	81.91
1 January 2010	90.81	81.83
4 January 2010	98.88	80.75
5 January 2010	99.51	77.68
6 January 2010	94.53	74.82
7 January 2010	99.84	72.42
8 January 2010	101.05	70.20
11 January 2010	97.89	67.75
12 January 2010	98.32	72.62
13 January 2010	99.14	74.34
14 January 2010	99.95	78.69
15 January 2010	104.30	83.75
18 January 2010	104.94	84.18
19 January 2010	100.79	87.33
20 January 2010	100.80	92.20
21 January 2010	102.00	92.63
22 January 2010	105.05	97.37
25 January 2010	107.25	94.77
26 January 2010	104.72	94.50
27 January 2010	108.88	94.98
28 January 2010	105.93	97.89
29 January 2010	108.05	102.77
1 February 2010	110.10	102.12
2 February 2010	109.27	100.08
3 February 2010	104.63	107.40
4 February 2010	114.44	113.07
5 February 2010	115.61	112.95
8 February 2010	128.96	116.21
9 February 2010	119.49	112.45
10 February 2010	119.48	112.56
11 February 2010	131.55	112.21
12 February 2010	124.21	112.98
15 February 2010	124.21	113.20
16 February 2010	110.15	113.03
17 February 2010	105.01	112.18
18 February 2010	98.98	112.18
19 February 2010	93.39	110.05
22 February 2010	119.04	108.66
23 February 2010	98.58	110.78
24 February 2010	104.90	112.80
25 February 2010	123.93	113.84
26 February 2010	123.04	109.36
1 March 2010	102.41	107.90
2 March 2010	120.91	102.18
3 March 2010	124.10	98.33
4 March 2010	124.11	98.74
5 March 2010	117.94	96.34
8 March 2010	104.72	91.53
9 March 2010	100.95	92.42
10 March 2010	92.68	88.88
11 March 2010	93.85	90.03
12 March 2010	101.99	89.27
15 March 2010	102.43	90.73
16 March 2010	98.43	89.35
17 March 2010	95.51	86.81
18 March 2010	98.06	89.77
19 March 2010	96.80	92.93
22 March 2010	98.32	96.85
23 March 2010	97.67	96.08
24 March 2010	97.44	94.62
25 March 2010	97.22	94.48
26 March 2010	97.22	94.35
29 March 2010	97.24	93.72
30 March 2010	97.11	93.75
31 March 2010	96.22	94.66
1 April 2010	94.84	95.00
2 April 2010	94.15	94.90
5 April 2010	92.31	94.93
6 April 2010	92.83	95.16
7 April 2010	92.72	99.78
8 April 2010	94.38	104.55
9 April 2010	91.29	101.34
12 April 2010	89.53	99.49
13 April 2010	89.66	97.58
14 April 2010	85.22	99.91
15 April 2010	86.60	99.99
16 April 2010	90.05	100.14
19 April 2010	92.86	103.00
20 April 2010	94.26	101.83
21 April 2010	92.35	104.55
22 April 2010	93.87	111.44
23 April 2010	93.97	113.01
26 April 2010	99.20	115.71
27 April 2010	102.87	124.12
28 April 2010	104.31	125.26
29 April 2010	102.89	121.12
30 April 2010	102.13	119.82
3 May 2010	105.71	119.99
4 May 2010	106.25	131.29
5 May 2010	111.77	142.63
6 May 2010	131.63	154.41
7 May 2010	131.68	174.86
10 May 2010	122.73	134.47
11 May 2010	121.92	136.31
12 May 2010	116.58	124.79
13 May 2010	118.01	128.15
14 May 2010	121.30	135.16
17 May 2010	121.97	139.48
18 May 2010	122.39	135.90
19 May 2010	129.13	143.44
20 May 2010	135.11	151.72
21 May 2010	141.28	152.17
24 May 2010	140.71	150.48
25 May 2010	155.67	156.85
26 May 2010	152.04	154.11
27 May 2010	142.05	151.08
28 May 2010	141.27	148.40
31 May 2010	141.27	148.40
1 June 2010	145.44	153.27
2 June 2010	145.33	155.53
3 June 2010	142.93	155.52
4 June 2010	147.82	160.15
7 June 2010	152.93	168.97
8 June 2010	158.80	173.02
9 June 2010	162.46	170.45
10 June 2010	161.48	166.23
11 June 2010	157.37	154.40
14 June 2010	154.63	151.65
15 June 2010	147.32	152.80
16 June 2010	141.98	152.29
17 June 2010	136.20	145.82
18 June 2010	132.66	142.11
21 June 2010	130.25	134.45

* Premia for firms rated 'A' or higher by Standard and Poor's. Return to text

Bottom-left panel
Five-year CDS Premia: Spain

Basis points
Date	Median (Spanish financial institutions)	Spain (sovereign)	BBVA	Santander
1 September 2009	200.13	68.38	75.38	71.96
2 September 2009	199.03	71.09	77.01	74.59
3 September 2009	197.15	71.20	75.80	74.35
4 September 2009	197.15	73.38	77.32	75.46
7 September 2009	193.49	71.30	76.17	75.60
8 September 2009	190.52	71.70	75.41	74.15
9 September 2009	186.21	71.30	75.43	75.59
10 September 2009	184.90	65.02	74.68	74.47
11 September 2009	193.41	64.40	73.45	72.69
14 September 2009	189.76	64.24	73.92	74.00
15 September 2009	184.87	63.78	72.06	71.38
16 September 2009	183.73	61.96	72.34	69.47
17 September 2009	182.48	62.57	72.82	70.47
18 September 2009	175.82	63.64	74.51	71.61
21 September 2009	165.15	64.70	75.87	73.64
22 September 2009	162.42	65.27	75.87	74.21
23 September 2009	147.14	65.28	74.36	72.46
24 September 2009	173.00	66.24	76.05	73.05
25 September 2009	173.27	67.98	79.86	76.78
28 September 2009	173.31	69.33	81.18	77.67
29 September 2009	173.22	67.21	78.88	76.75
30 September 2009	173.44	67.04	80.27	79.04
1 October 2009	163.73	67.46	87.26	82.33
2 October 2009	157.31	70.19	92.75	88.95
5 October 2009	155.19	68.42	89.52	84.76
6 October 2009	155.10	67.86	86.47	82.78
7 October 2009	155.05	67.84	88.43	85.17
8 October 2009	155.02	67.51	86.58	83.35
9 October 2009	158.29	68.20	86.59	83.38
12 October 2009	151.57	68.05	85.35	82.55
13 October 2009	149.78	68.30	85.86	82.99
14 October 2009	147.55	68.03	84.26	81.09
15 October 2009	145.16	67.96	84.09	82.07
16 October 2009	146.04	67.69	86.23	82.94
19 October 2009	146.35	67.60	85.93	83.41
20 October 2009	146.45	64.53	84.40	82.54
21 October 2009	149.13	67.70	83.49	81.51
22 October 2009	147.41	67.93	85.12	82.52
23 October 2009	146.84	68.45	82.37	80.48
26 October 2009	146.67	68.64	83.62	80.92
27 October 2009	149.19	68.73	85.04	82.15
28 October 2009	149.11	69.86	89.98	87.53
29 October 2009	151.78	71.59	90.47	87.89
30 October 2009	151.62	72.04	89.83	87.65
2 November 2009	151.94	72.04	91.92	90.66
3 November 2009	152.05	72.55	94.45	91.84
4 November 2009	152.10	72.61	93.41	90.31
5 November 2009	152.11	72.33	92.81	90.50
6 November 2009	152.12	74.67	93.25	90.51
9 November 2009	152.15	74.48	91.19	88.65
10 November 2009	152.16	73.67	90.16	87.91
11 November 2009	152.17	73.52	89.00	86.81
12 November 2009	152.18	73.60	90.18	87.30
13 November 2009	152.19	76.42	90.51	87.55
16 November 2009	152.22	82.97	88.81	86.56
17 November 2009	152.24	78.66	89.73	86.97
18 November 2009	152.24	79.96	92.12	89.97
19 November 2009	152.26	86.51	94.87	91.63
20 November 2009	152.93	84.84	95.68	92.28
23 November 2009	153.19	84.14	94.22	90.67
24 November 2009	153.28	84.57	95.45	92.97
25 November 2009	154.61	84.01	94.55	91.75
26 November 2009	154.60	88.04	95.39	92.85
27 November 2009	156.07	89.46	96.47	94.77
30 November 2009	159.93	87.49	95.39	93.43
1 December 2009	159.50	83.97	91.34	89.56
2 December 2009	159.37	84.08	89.37	87.32
3 December 2009	157.66	83.68	86.02	83.66
4 December 2009	154.40	84.92	84.61	81.68
7 December 2009	152.77	85.50	84.89	82.45
8 December 2009	152.24	88.11	85.43	83.48
9 December 2009	152.06	96.17	87.27	85.42
10 December 2009	157.34	94.11	88.73	86.50
11 December 2009	153.76	91.29	86.36	84.07
14 December 2009	156.77	92.16	84.12	81.47
15 December 2009	156.78	93.25	84.13	81.68
16 December 2009	157.32	93.28	84.05	81.02
17 December 2009	152.11	102.36	84.53	82.39
18 December 2009	150.39	108.33	85.43	82.74
21 December 2009	149.36	116.72	85.17	82.38
22 December 2009	148.81	114.86	84.49	82.14
23 December 2009	148.63	112.28	84.66	81.94
24 December 2009	148.63	112.08	84.70	82.11
25 December 2009	148.63	112.08	84.70	82.11
28 December 2009	148.57	111.94	84.77	82.00
29 December 2009	148.27	112.25	82.97	79.49
30 December 2009	148.30	112.87	82.31	79.55
31 December 2009	148.32	113.09	82.31	79.55
1 January 2010	148.32	113.27	82.15	79.62
4 January 2010	148.24	113.82	81.11	78.53
5 January 2010	162.08	101.64	77.69	76.14
6 January 2010	162.91	98.75	73.88	73.46
7 January 2010	159.93	104.00	70.93	70.70
8 January 2010	158.42	110.15	70.16	68.53
11 January 2010	157.91	112.92	66.64	65.70
12 January 2010	161.91	114.64	70.79	69.50
13 January 2010	162.41	118.38	75.25	72.29
14 January 2010	165.09	124.10	80.30	78.29
15 January 2010	164.90	126.85	89.19	89.58
18 January 2010	166.87	120.63	87.69	86.46
19 January 2010	166.99	122.98	90.16	87.99
20 January 2010	171.57	131.38	104.73	102.54
21 January 2010	174.27	135.57	103.50	102.57
22 January 2010	176.82	129.60	109.40	109.02
25 January 2010	175.93	118.59	105.41	106.11
26 January 2010	175.67	110.58	103.64	102.31
27 January 2010	175.01	128.24	107.77	106.31
28 January 2010	181.78	138.43	111.79	109.54
29 January 2010	199.41	129.40	120.65	118.86
1 February 2010	200.71	128.70	124.01	122.68
2 February 2010	199.07	133.15	117.58	116.53
3 February 2010	202.18	150.01	126.46	125.80
4 February 2010	212.98	169.22	139.76	140.43
5 February 2010	219.67	166.04	137.22	135.51
8 February 2010	224.31	171.75	147.80	147.89
9 February 2010	222.70	154.41	138.71	141.08
10 February 2010	217.88	139.73	129.69	128.99
11 February 2010	214.78	137.12	127.68	127.24
12 February 2010	218.23	138.59	130.27	129.04
15 February 2010	220.20	139.19	130.56	128.83
16 February 2010	224.35	137.69	130.83	129.20
17 February 2010	229.14	132.41	127.85	125.45
18 February 2010	228.78	130.24	123.54	121.51
19 February 2010	224.73	124.64	119.98	118.43
22 February 2010	220.55	123.57	116.71	115.13
23 February 2010	223.34	126.23	118.84	116.59
24 February 2010	226.33	134.40	122.83	121.12
25 February 2010	228.45	141.52	124.97	124.52
26 February 2010	226.67	130.24	121.17	119.97
1 March 2010	233.08	122.00	118.61	117.09
2 March 2010	229.71	110.25	111.37	110.08
3 March 2010	226.55	103.81	105.22	103.34
4 March 2010	227.13	103.83	105.08	101.20
5 March 2010	224.79	101.36	102.20	100.30
8 March 2010	190.64	97.00	98.15	95.53
9 March 2010	191.69	97.86	100.78	97.94
10 March 2010	188.62	92.57	98.76	95.82
11 March 2010	188.98	95.83	100.47	97.70
12 March 2010	187.57	94.12	99.95	97.48
15 March 2010	191.20	93.74	101.94	100.12
16 March 2010	190.69	94.45	99.31	97.80
17 March 2010	186.42	94.10	95.93	94.54
18 March 2010	189.27	100.63	98.97	96.78
19 March 2010	189.30	111.46	101.92	100.48
22 March 2010	189.85	112.36	105.51	103.66
23 March 2010	183.45	106.95	103.92	102.11
24 March 2010	184.85	107.67	108.63	104.76
25 March 2010	214.19	108.70	109.01	105.78
26 March 2010	180.58	106.89	108.00	105.44
29 March 2010	184.54	113.32	107.26	104.96
30 March 2010	183.56	115.75	106.49	104.89
31 March 2010	185.51	118.06	109.72	106.96
1 April 2010	185.76	117.92	110.13	106.78
2 April 2010	185.76	117.92	110.13	106.78
5 April 2010	184.01	118.09	110.13	106.78
6 April 2010	184.42	123.67	108.55	106.83
7 April 2010	186.73	131.67	116.78	113.70
8 April 2010	193.43	136.63	122.96	118.32
9 April 2010	190.24	126.15	119.47	115.48
12 April 2010	187.91	127.39	119.72	113.79
13 April 2010	189.55	128.61	118.27	112.22
14 April 2010	207.79	139.78	126.01	118.08
15 April 2010	215.66	144.48	132.42	120.82
16 April 2010	216.42	148.52	135.21	122.23
19 April 2010	242.82	150.79	154.83	132.26
20 April 2010	244.64	144.65	148.10	129.12
21 April 2010	250.65	158.77	167.98	146.26
22 April 2010	271.19	171.91	179.18	158.31
23 April 2010	280.79	175.79	177.80	157.38
26 April 2010	284.02	187.49	186.20	169.80
27 April 2010	293.61	207.59	192.25	177.91
28 April 2010	310.49	189.42	192.95	176.16
29 April 2010	301.68	173.28	170.16	161.32
30 April 2010	294.94	163.75	157.85	152.04
3 May 2010	294.94	162.77	157.85	149.84
4 May 2010	321.22	207.09	185.48	176.55
5 May 2010	343.98	230.83	221.78	202.02
6 May 2010	359.34	273.35	253.62	227.89
7 May 2010	371.11	243.18	275.10	253.97
10 May 2010	304.69	173.58	178.74	160.06
11 May 2010	300.82	164.93	172.75	158.95
12 May 2010	275.54	143.95	148.59	132.71
13 May 2010	254.57	154.33	157.57	140.98
14 May 2010	263.77	178.86	179.64	165.29
17 May 2010	268.21	191.05	188.16	174.61
18 May 2010	263.81	180.47	183.26	170.37
19 May 2010	268.48	182.34	186.94	175.12
20 May 2010	284.58	204.52	199.76	182.29
21 May 2010	283.57	206.17	197.02	189.71
24 May 2010	286.19	212.48	205.19	189.03
25 May 2010	324.26	242.13	232.54	214.64
26 May 2010	308.90	240.05	224.00	204.91
27 May 2010	323.74	233.71	224.26	201.69
28 May 2010	301.95	219.38	215.42	184.28
31 May 2010	301.92	217.91	215.41	184.58
1 June 2010	312.26	248.92	239.57	207.01
2 June 2010	317.77	255.38	245.66	211.58
3 June 2010	321.33	258.26	238.43	208.71
4 June 2010	336.05	268.72	261.85	226.72
7 June 2010	353.57	270.60	277.40	242.20
8 June 2010	374.04	263.89	294.90	259.95
9 June 2010	369.89	239.84	284.00	238.10
10 June 2010	348.28	220.07	261.89	216.78
11 June 2010	340.12	214.74	228.46	187.83
14 June 2010	334.65	232.70	251.47	188.81
15 June 2010	339.01	247.83	253.82	196.74
16 June 2010	344.35	258.36	268.43	203.32
17 June 2010	343.94	243.26	248.83	179.64
18 June 2010	338.65	222.04	232.33	170.42
21 June 2010	321.44	221.40	215.08	159.81

Bottom-right panel
Risks

Europe's sovereign debt problems could intensify if:

Some countries fail to implement fiscal consolidation.
Banking sector problems become more severe.

Exhibit 11
European Debt Crisis Scenarios

Top panel
SIGMA Simulations

Use SIGMA to gauge impact of a European debt crisis scenario:

Higher sovereign spreads in Europe boost corporate borrowing costs by 275 basis points.
Euro falls 30 percent against the dollar.
European fiscal consolidation equal to two percent of GDP.
Financial and confidence shocks in the United States and the rest of world (ROW).

Middle-left panel
Benchmark Crisis Scenario

(Percent deviation from baseline)
Quarter	U.S. GDP	European GDP	ROW GDP
1	-1.25	-2.44	-0.83
2	-2.75	-4.54	-1.63
3	-4.03	-5.94	-2.22
4	-5.05	-6.93	-2.65
5	-5.81	-7.63	-2.94
6	-6.32	-8.15	-3.12
7	-6.62	-8.52	-3.22
8	-6.74	-8.76	-3.27
9	-6.70	-8.90	-3.27
10	-6.56	-8.94	-3.24
11	-6.33	-8.90	-3.18
12	-6.04	-8.79	-3.11
13	-5.72	-8.65	-3.02
14	-5.39	-8.47	-2.91
15	-5.07	-8.28	-2.81
16	-4.77	-8.09	-2.70
17	-4.48	-7.90	-2.58
18	-4.21	-7.71	-2.47
19	-3.95	-7.52	-2.36
20	-3.71	-7.33	-2.25

Middle-right panel
European GDP: Delayed Crisis

(Percent deviation from baseline)
Quarter	Benchmark	Six-quarter delay
1	-2.44	-1.94
2	-4.54	-3.32
3	-5.94	-4.07
4	-6.93	-4.48
5	-7.63	-4.72
6	-8.15	-4.87
7	-8.52	-4.97
8	-8.76	-5.05
9	-8.90	-5.11
10	-8.94	-5.16
11	-8.90	-5.20
12	-8.79	-5.23
13	-8.65	-5.25
14	-8.47	-5.25
15	-8.28	-5.25
16	-8.09	-5.24
17	-7.90	-5.21
18	-7.71	-5.18
19	-7.52	-5.13
20	-7.33	-5.08

Bottom panel

Possible that financial conditions in Europe normalize more quickly.
Even so, it is desirable for Europe to take additional steps to avoid a crisis:
- Should facilitate efforts of cash-strapped governments to clean up banks.
- Improve transparency to help markets differentiate good from problem banks.
High value of "buying time" to avert an immediate crisis.

Exhibit 12
Financial Market Developments

Top-left panel
Treasury and Mortgage Rates

Percent
Date	10-year Treasury note	30-year conforming fixed-rate mortgage
1 January 2009	ND	5.26
2 January 2009	2.46	5.30
5 January 2009	2.49	5.33
6 January 2009	2.51	5.23
7 January 2009	2.52	5.17
8 January 2009	2.47	5.13
9 January 2009	2.43	5.11
12 January 2009	2.34	5.08
13 January 2009	2.33	5.20
14 January 2009	2.24	5.09
15 January 2009	2.23	5.20
16 January 2009	2.36	5.14
19 January 2009	ND	5.17
20 January 2009	2.40	5.20
21 January 2009	2.56	5.44
22 January 2009	2.62	5.41
23 January 2009	2.65	5.42
26 January 2009	2.70	5.40
27 January 2009	2.59	5.36
28 January 2009	2.71	5.33
29 January 2009	2.87	5.33
30 January 2009	2.87	5.34
2 February 2009	2.76	5.35
3 February 2009	2.89	5.34
4 February 2009	2.95	5.38
5 February 2009	2.95	5.42
6 February 2009	3.05	5.44
9 February 2009	3.07	5.43
10 February 2009	2.90	5.33
11 February 2009	2.78	5.27
12 February 2009	2.75	5.26
13 February 2009	2.89	5.28
16 February 2009	ND	5.27
17 February 2009	2.64	5.27
18 February 2009	2.74	5.27
19 February 2009	2.85	5.26
20 February 2009	2.78	5.21
23 February 2009	2.78	5.22
24 February 2009	2.80	5.22
25 February 2009	2.95	5.26
26 February 2009	2.98	5.25
27 February 2009	3.02	5.25
2 March 2009	2.91	5.26
3 March 2009	2.93	5.24
4 March 2009	3.01	5.24
5 March 2009	2.83	5.20
6 March 2009	2.83	5.17
9 March 2009	2.89	5.17
10 March 2009	2.99	5.18
11 March 2009	2.95	5.14
12 March 2009	2.89	5.12
13 March 2009	2.89	5.09
16 March 2009	2.97	5.11
17 March 2009	3.02	5.16
18 March 2009	2.51	5.15
19 March 2009	2.61	5.06
20 March 2009	2.65	5.08
23 March 2009	2.68	5.09
24 March 2009	2.68	5.09
25 March 2009	2.81	5.08
26 March 2009	2.76	5.03
27 March 2009	2.78	4.93
30 March 2009	2.73	4.91
31 March 2009	2.71	4.89
1 April 2009	2.68	5.05
2 April 2009	2.77	5.06
3 April 2009	2.91	5.08
6 April 2009	2.95	5.20
7 April 2009	2.93	5.08
8 April 2009	2.86	4.99
9 April 2009	2.96	4.98
10 April 2009	ND	4.99
13 April 2009	2.88	4.98
14 April 2009	2.80	4.96
15 April 2009	2.82	4.94
16 April 2009	2.86	4.86
17 April 2009	2.98	4.88
20 April 2009	2.88	4.89
21 April 2009	2.94	4.86
22 April 2009	2.98	4.89
23 April 2009	2.96	4.90
24 April 2009	3.03	4.88
27 April 2009	2.95	4.86
28 April 2009	3.05	4.85
29 April 2009	3.12	4.87
30 April 2009	3.16	4.92
1 May 2009	3.21	4.94
4 May 2009	3.19	5.03
5 May 2009	3.20	5.00
6 May 2009	3.18	5.03
7 May 2009	3.29	4.96
8 May 2009	3.29	4.98
11 May 2009	3.17	5.04
12 May 2009	3.17	5.03
13 May 2009	3.11	4.98
14 May 2009	3.20	4.98
15 May 2009	3.14	4.97
18 May 2009	3.22	4.97
19 May 2009	3.25	4.99
20 May 2009	3.19	4.98
21 May 2009	3.35	4.98
22 May 2009	3.45	5.00
25 May 2009	ND	5.00
26 May 2009	3.50	5.00
27 May 2009	3.71	5.08
28 May 2009	3.67	5.27
29 May 2009	3.47	5.23
1 June 2009	3.71	5.32
2 June 2009	3.65	5.36
3 June 2009	3.56	5.35
4 June 2009	3.72	5.46
5 June 2009	3.84	5.45
8 June 2009	3.91	5.51
9 June 2009	3.86	5.56
10 June 2009	3.98	5.74
11 June 2009	3.88	5.70
12 June 2009	3.81	5.67
15 June 2009	3.76	5.58
16 June 2009	3.67	5.53
17 June 2009	3.68	5.41
18 June 2009	3.86	5.43
19 June 2009	3.79	5.47
22 June 2009	3.72	5.41
23 June 2009	3.65	5.41
24 June 2009	3.72	5.56
25 June 2009	3.55	5.51
26 June 2009	3.52	5.46
29 June 2009	3.51	5.37
30 June 2009	3.53	5.39
1 July 2009	3.55	5.38
2 July 2009	3.51	5.34
3 July 2009	ND	5.34
6 July 2009	3.52	5.36
7 July 2009	3.47	5.32
8 July 2009	3.33	5.33
9 July 2009	3.44	5.29
10 July 2009	3.32	5.30
13 July 2009	3.38	5.30
14 July 2009	3.50	5.36
15 July 2009	3.63	5.41
16 July 2009	3.59	5.42
17 July 2009	3.67	5.44
20 July 2009	3.61	5.45
21 July 2009	3.50	5.37
22 July 2009	3.58	5.35
23 July 2009	3.72	5.39
24 July 2009	3.70	5.42
27 July 2009	3.75	5.44
28 July 2009	3.72	5.41
29 July 2009	3.69	5.39
30 July 2009	3.67	5.39
31 July 2009	3.52	5.33
3 August 2009	3.66	5.35
4 August 2009	3.70	5.36
5 August 2009	3.80	5.43
6 August 2009	3.79	5.47
7 August 2009	3.89	5.53
10 August 2009	3.80	5.49
11 August 2009	3.71	5.50
12 August 2009	3.72	5.49
13 August 2009	3.59	5.38
14 August 2009	3.55	5.33
17 August 2009	3.48	5.31
18 August 2009	3.51	5.31
19 August 2009	3.45	5.29
20 August 2009	3.42	5.35
21 August 2009	3.56	5.30
24 August 2009	3.48	5.33
25 August 2009	3.45	5.31
26 August 2009	3.44	5.29
27 August 2009	3.47	5.29
28 August 2009	3.46	5.34
31 August 2009	3.40	5.27
1 September 2009	3.38	5.26
2 September 2009	3.29	5.20
3 September 2009	3.33	5.21
4 September 2009	3.45	5.21
7 September 2009	ND	5.21
8 September 2009	3.47	5.17
9 September 2009	3.48	5.23
10 September 2009	3.36	5.26
11 September 2009	3.34	5.16
14 September 2009	3.42	5.23
15 September 2009	3.47	5.27
16 September 2009	3.48	5.20
17 September 2009	3.42	5.17
18 September 2009	3.49	5.16
21 September 2009	3.49	5.22
22 September 2009	3.46	5.20
23 September 2009	3.44	5.25
24 September 2009	3.40	5.22
25 September 2009	3.34	5.19
28 September 2009	3.31	5.18
29 September 2009	3.31	5.12
30 September 2009	3.31	5.16
1 October 2009	3.21	5.13
2 October 2009	3.24	5.20
5 October 2009	3.24	5.20
6 October 2009	3.27	5.11
7 October 2009	3.21	5.20
8 October 2009	3.27	4.93
9 October 2009	3.40	4.97
12 October 2009	ND	4.99
13 October 2009	3.34	4.99
14 October 2009	3.45	5.03
15 October 2009	3.49	5.05
16 October 2009	3.43	5.07
19 October 2009	3.41	5.19
20 October 2009	3.35	5.23
21 October 2009	3.42	5.14
22 October 2009	3.44	5.15
23 October 2009	3.51	5.15
26 October 2009	3.59	5.25
27 October 2009	3.49	5.18
28 October 2009	3.44	5.19
29 October 2009	3.53	5.18
30 October 2009	3.41	5.16
2 November 2009	3.45	5.15
3 November 2009	3.50	5.15
4 November 2009	3.57	5.19
5 November 2009	3.57	5.22
6 November 2009	3.54	5.13
9 November 2009	3.52	5.11
10 November 2009	3.50	5.06
11 November 2009	ND	5.07
12 November 2009	3.45	5.06
13 November 2009	3.43	5.02
16 November 2009	3.33	4.98
17 November 2009	3.33	4.99
18 November 2009	3.36	5.03
19 November 2009	3.35	5.02
20 November 2009	3.36	5.03
23 November 2009	3.37	5.02
24 November 2009	3.32	4.99
25 November 2009	3.28	4.96
26 November 2009	ND	4.97
27 November 2009	3.21	4.97
30 November 2009	3.21	4.93
1 December 2009	3.28	4.89
2 December 2009	3.32	4.93
3 December 2009	3.39	4.97
4 December 2009	3.48	5.03
7 December 2009	3.44	5.01
8 December 2009	3.40	4.97
9 December 2009	3.45	4.99
10 December 2009	3.49	5.01
11 December 2009	3.55	5.04
14 December 2009	3.56	5.07
15 December 2009	3.60	5.07
16 December 2009	3.61	5.08
17 December 2009	3.50	5.03
18 December 2009	3.55	5.06
21 December 2009	3.69	5.11
22 December 2009	3.76	5.20
23 December 2009	3.77	5.25
24 December 2009	3.82	5.26
25 December 2009	ND	5.28
28 December 2009	3.85	5.37
29 December 2009	3.82	5.34
30 December 2009	3.80	5.31
31 December 2009	3.85	5.33
1 January 2010	ND	5.34
4 January 2010	3.85	5.36
5 January 2010	3.77	5.29
6 January 2010	3.85	5.26
7 January 2010	3.85	5.27
8 January 2010	3.83	5.29
11 January 2010	3.85	5.30
12 January 2010	3.74	5.22
13 January 2010	3.80	5.23
14 January 2010	3.76	5.18
15 January 2010	3.70	5.16
18 January 2010	ND	5.15
19 January 2010	3.73	5.23
20 January 2010	3.68	5.07
21 January 2010	3.62	5.11
22 January 2010	3.62	5.14
25 January 2010	3.66	5.11
26 January 2010	3.65	5.06
27 January 2010	3.66	5.16
28 January 2010	3.68	5.13
29 January 2010	3.63	5.07
1 February 2010	3.68	5.06
2 February 2010	3.67	5.07
3 February 2010	3.73	5.11
4 February 2010	3.62	5.05
5 February 2010	3.59	5.04
8 February 2010	3.62	5.03
9 February 2010	3.67	5.08
10 February 2010	3.72	5.13
11 February 2010	3.73	5.05
12 February 2010	3.69	5.04
15 February 2010	ND	5.04
16 February 2010	3.66	5.08
17 February 2010	3.74	5.13
18 February 2010	3.79	5.13
19 February 2010	3.78	5.16
22 February 2010	3.80	5.12
23 February 2010	3.69	5.09
24 February 2010	3.70	5.12
25 February 2010	3.64	5.20
26 February 2010	3.61	5.08
1 March 2010	3.61	5.06
2 March 2010	3.62	5.03
3 March 2010	3.63	5.03
4 March 2010	3.61	5.01
5 March 2010	3.69	5.01
8 March 2010	3.72	5.03
9 March 2010	3.71	5.00
10 March 2010	3.73	5.01
11 March 2010	3.73	5.00
12 March 2010	3.71	5.07
15 March 2010	3.71	5.06
16 March 2010	3.66	5.01
17 March 2010	3.65	5.05
18 March 2010	3.68	5.04
19 March 2010	3.70	5.02
22 March 2010	3.67	5.02
23 March 2010	3.69	5.00
24 March 2010	3.84	5.07
25 March 2010	3.91	5.11
26 March 2010	3.86	5.11
29 March 2010	3.88	5.15
30 March 2010	3.88	5.12
31 March 2010	3.84	5.12
1 April 2010	3.89	5.16
2 April 2010	3.96	5.23
5 April 2010	4.01	5.25
6 April 2010	3.98	5.26
7 April 2010	3.89	5.24
8 April 2010	3.91	5.23
9 April 2010	3.90	5.20
12 April 2010	3.87	5.17
13 April 2010	3.84	5.16
14 April 2010	3.88	5.12
15 April 2010	3.86	5.19
16 April 2010	3.79	5.16
19 April 2010	3.83	5.14
20 April 2010	3.82	5.16
21 April 2010	3.77	5.19
22 April 2010	3.80	5.14
23 April 2010	3.84	5.17
26 April 2010	3.83	5.15
27 April 2010	3.71	5.13
28 April 2010	3.80	5.13
29 April 2010	3.76	5.14
30 April 2010	3.69	5.13
3 May 2010	3.72	5.11
4 May 2010	3.63	5.09
5 May 2010	3.58	5.07
6 May 2010	3.41	5.03
7 May 2010	3.45	5.02
10 May 2010	3.57	5.03
11 May 2010	3.56	5.03
12 May 2010	3.56	5.01
13 May 2010	3.55	4.99
14 May 2010	3.44	4.97
17 May 2010	3.47	4.94
18 May 2010	3.38	4.94
19 May 2010	3.36	4.94
20 May 2010	3.25	4.90
21 May 2010	3.20	4.87
24 May 2010	3.23	4.87
25 May 2010	3.18	4.85
26 May 2010	3.21	4.86
27 May 2010	3.34	4.87
28 May 2010	3.31	4.92
31 May 2010	ND	4.92
1 June 2010	3.29	4.91
2 June 2010	3.35	4.91
3 June 2010	3.39	4.91
4 June 2010	3.20	4.88
7 June 2010	3.17	4.85
8 June 2010	3.18	4.82
9 June 2010	3.20	4.82
10 June 2010	3.33	4.84
11 June 2010	3.24	4.83
14 June 2010	3.28	4.84
15 June 2010	3.32	4.83
16 June 2010	3.27	4.83
17 June 2010	3.21	ND
18 June 2010	3.24	ND

Source: Freddie Mac for mortgage rate.

Top-right panel
Equity Market

Index, Apr. 28, 2010 = 100
Date	S&P 500	S&P banks
2 January 2009	78.21	88.96
5 January 2009	77.85	84.57
6 January 2009	78.46	83.96
7 January 2009	76.10	79.70
8 January 2009	76.36	79.55
9 January 2009	74.73	76.99
12 January 2009	73.05	73.39
13 January 2009	73.18	74.91
14 January 2009	70.73	71.00
15 January 2009	70.82	64.01
16 January 2009	71.36	60.81
19 January 2009	ND	ND
20 January 2009	67.59	48.01
21 January 2009	70.53	54.12
22 January 2009	69.46	50.42
23 January 2009	69.83	51.84
26 January 2009	70.22	49.74
27 January 2009	70.99	51.87
28 January 2009	73.37	62.27
29 January 2009	70.94	56.65
30 January 2009	69.32	55.60
2 February 2009	69.29	55.78
3 February 2009	70.38	53.00
4 February 2009	69.86	51.41
5 February 2009	71.00	50.45
6 February 2009	72.91	57.42
9 February 2009	73.02	58.30
10 February 2009	69.43	49.93
11 February 2009	69.98	53.03
12 February 2009	70.10	50.61
13 February 2009	69.40	47.29
16 February 2009	ND	ND
17 February 2009	66.24	41.99
18 February 2009	66.18	41.19
19 February 2009	65.38	38.57
20 February 2009	64.64	37.21
23 February 2009	62.39	37.98
24 February 2009	64.90	43.60
25 February 2009	64.20	44.93
26 February 2009	63.19	48.33
27 February 2009	61.70	43.37
2 March 2009	58.83	40.17
3 March 2009	58.45	39.17
4 March 2009	59.84	36.59
5 March 2009	57.29	31.34
6 March 2009	57.36	31.69
9 March 2009	56.79	35.09
10 March 2009	60.40	40.64
11 March 2009	60.55	41.45
12 March 2009	63.02	46.90
13 March 2009	63.50	46.35
16 March 2009	63.28	45.81
17 March 2009	65.31	48.46
18 March 2009	66.68	54.80
19 March 2009	65.81	49.62
20 March 2009	64.51	46.33
23 March 2009	69.07	55.42
24 March 2009	67.67	50.65
25 March 2009	68.32	53.43
26 March 2009	69.91	53.20
27 March 2009	68.49	51.45
30 March 2009	66.10	45.43
31 March 2009	66.97	48.40
1 April 2009	68.08	49.61
2 April 2009	70.04	51.68
3 April 2009	70.72	54.22
6 April 2009	70.13	51.29
7 April 2009	68.46	49.47
8 April 2009	69.26	49.08
9 April 2009	71.90	61.18
10 April 2009	ND	ND
13 April 2009	72.08	63.02
14 April 2009	70.63	57.97
15 April 2009	71.52	61.86
16 April 2009	72.63	62.67
17 April 2009	72.99	65.70
20 April 2009	69.87	55.87
21 April 2009	71.35	62.00
22 April 2009	70.81	59.03
23 April 2009	71.51	62.81
24 April 2009	72.71	65.91
27 April 2009	71.98	62.55
28 April 2009	71.78	60.75
29 April 2009	73.33	62.97
30 April 2009	73.26	62.14
1 May 2009	73.66	60.65
4 May 2009	76.15	71.74
5 May 2009	75.86	69.74
6 May 2009	77.18	78.12
7 May 2009	76.16	72.34
8 May 2009	78.00	81.10
11 May 2009	76.32	75.57
12 May 2009	76.24	72.73
13 May 2009	74.19	68.69
14 May 2009	74.96	71.82
15 May 2009	74.11	69.83
18 May 2009	76.36	75.34
19 May 2009	76.23	72.03
20 May 2009	75.84	69.66
21 May 2009	74.56	69.38
22 May 2009	74.45	67.86
25 May 2009	ND	ND
26 May 2009	76.41	71.44
27 May 2009	74.96	67.68
28 May 2009	76.12	69.98
29 May 2009	77.15	71.80
1 June 2009	79.14	71.33
2 June 2009	79.30	69.03
3 June 2009	78.21	68.27
4 June 2009	79.11	71.32
5 June 2009	78.91	69.83
8 June 2009	78.83	71.36
9 June 2009	79.11	71.87
10 June 2009	78.83	70.30
11 June 2009	79.31	71.18
12 June 2009	79.42	71.99
15 June 2009	77.53	69.93
16 June 2009	76.55	68.92
17 June 2009	76.44	66.17
18 June 2009	77.09	67.84
19 June 2009	77.33	69.01
22 June 2009	74.96	64.75
23 June 2009	75.13	65.66
24 June 2009	75.62	66.44
25 June 2009	77.24	67.83
26 June 2009	77.13	68.00
29 June 2009	77.83	69.31
30 June 2009	77.17	68.39
1 July 2009	77.50	67.86
2 July 2009	75.24	65.40
3 July 2009	ND	ND
6 July 2009	75.44	65.64
7 July 2009	73.95	65.75
8 July 2009	73.83	64.39
9 July 2009	74.09	65.31
10 July 2009	73.79	64.54
13 July 2009	75.63	69.25
14 July 2009	76.03	68.16
15 July 2009	78.29	70.72
16 July 2009	78.96	70.27
17 July 2009	78.93	69.27
20 July 2009	79.84	70.39
21 July 2009	80.13	69.05
22 July 2009	80.08	68.53
23 July 2009	81.95	69.17
24 July 2009	82.20	68.07
27 July 2009	82.44	70.25
28 July 2009	82.23	70.63
29 July 2009	81.85	70.14
30 July 2009	82.83	72.22
31 July 2009	82.89	72.03
3 August 2009	84.16	74.77
4 August 2009	84.41	77.01
5 August 2009	84.17	80.42
6 August 2009	83.69	79.87
7 August 2009	84.82	82.81
10 August 2009	84.53	82.33
11 August 2009	83.46	78.21
12 August 2009	84.43	78.93
13 August 2009	85.01	81.10
14 August 2009	84.28	81.20
17 August 2009	82.24	77.04
18 August 2009	83.07	77.75
19 August 2009	83.64	78.13
20 August 2009	84.56	80.26
21 August 2009	86.13	81.82
24 August 2009	86.08	79.79
25 August 2009	86.29	80.14
26 August 2009	86.30	80.75
27 August 2009	86.54	81.22
28 August 2009	86.37	81.11
31 August 2009	85.67	81.36
1 September 2009	83.77	77.13
2 September 2009	83.50	75.64
3 September 2009	84.21	77.50
4 September 2009	85.31	78.17
7 September 2009	ND	ND
8 September 2009	86.07	78.05
9 September 2009	86.74	79.91
10 September 2009	87.64	80.16
11 September 2009	87.52	79.54
14 September 2009	88.08	80.51
15 September 2009	88.36	82.96
16 September 2009	89.71	85.99
17 September 2009	89.43	84.16
18 September 2009	89.67	84.03
21 September 2009	89.37	83.46
22 September 2009	89.95	85.42
23 September 2009	89.05	83.71
24 September 2009	88.20	82.35
25 September 2009	87.66	81.87
28 September 2009	89.22	83.68
29 September 2009	89.03	82.75
30 September 2009	88.73	82.55
1 October 2009	86.44	78.38
2 October 2009	86.05	77.90
5 October 2009	87.33	81.36
6 October 2009	88.53	82.36
7 October 2009	88.77	83.53
8 October 2009	89.43	83.15
9 October 2009	89.94	83.91
12 October 2009	90.33	85.57
13 October 2009	90.08	85.10
14 October 2009	91.66	88.40
15 October 2009	92.04	88.38
16 October 2009	91.30	85.42
19 October 2009	92.16	85.37
20 October 2009	91.58	85.89
21 October 2009	90.77	83.49
22 October 2009	91.74	87.44
23 October 2009	90.62	85.67
26 October 2009	89.56	82.84
27 October 2009	89.26	82.40
28 October 2009	87.52	79.88
29 October 2009	89.49	82.95
30 October 2009	86.98	79.48
2 November 2009	87.54	80.58
3 November 2009	87.75	80.67
4 November 2009	87.84	78.45
5 November 2009	89.53	80.47
6 November 2009	89.75	80.17
9 November 2009	91.75	83.20
10 November 2009	91.74	82.18
11 November 2009	92.21	83.66
12 November 2009	91.26	82.16
13 November 2009	91.78	81.01
16 November 2009	93.11	82.23
17 November 2009	93.20	82.97
18 November 2009	93.15	84.10
19 November 2009	91.90	82.65
20 November 2009	91.61	82.08
23 November 2009	92.86	83.30
24 November 2009	92.81	83.06
25 November 2009	93.22	82.88
26 November 2009	ND	ND
27 November 2009	91.62	80.75
30 November 2009	91.96	83.70
1 December 2009	93.08	83.70
2 December 2009	93.11	83.37
3 December 2009	92.32	80.14
4 December 2009	92.83	81.65
7 December 2009	92.60	79.93
8 December 2009	91.65	79.75
9 December 2009	91.99	79.73
10 December 2009	92.53	78.60
11 December 2009	92.87	78.90
14 December 2009	93.52	79.33
15 December 2009	93.00	78.14
16 December 2009	93.10	78.08
17 December 2009	92.00	78.14
18 December 2009	92.54	80.02
21 December 2009	93.51	81.54
22 December 2009	93.84	81.18
23 December 2009	94.06	80.11
24 December 2009	94.55	80.99
25 December 2009	ND	ND
28 December 2009	94.66	80.07
29 December 2009	94.53	79.89
30 December 2009	94.55	80.03
31 December 2009	93.60	80.13
1 January 2010	ND	ND
4 January 2010	95.10	81.33
5 January 2010	95.40	83.18
6 January 2010	95.45	83.78
7 January 2010	95.83	87.08
8 January 2010	96.11	86.82
11 January 2010	96.27	86.89
12 January 2010	95.37	85.38
13 January 2010	96.17	86.84
14 January 2010	96.40	88.48
15 January 2010	95.36	86.12
18 January 2010	ND	ND
19 January 2010	96.55	86.61
20 January 2010	95.52	86.69
21 January 2010	93.71	87.28
22 January 2010	91.64	85.24
25 January 2010	92.06	85.81
26 January 2010	91.67	83.70
27 January 2010	92.12	86.95
28 January 2010	91.03	87.30
29 January 2010	90.14	87.26
1 February 2010	91.42	88.40
2 February 2010	92.61	87.88
3 February 2010	92.10	85.81
4 February 2010	89.23	82.44
5 February 2010	89.49	83.65
8 February 2010	88.70	81.66
9 February 2010	89.86	82.35
10 February 2010	89.66	83.35
11 February 2010	90.52	83.14
12 February 2010	90.28	82.56
15 February 2010	ND	ND
16 February 2010	91.90	84.34
17 February 2010	92.29	83.88
18 February 2010	92.90	83.91
19 February 2010	93.10	84.39
22 February 2010	93.00	86.31
23 February 2010	91.88	84.43
24 February 2010	92.77	86.08
25 February 2010	92.58	85.16
26 February 2010	92.71	85.50
1 March 2010	93.65	85.17
2 March 2010	93.87	86.26
3 March 2010	93.91	86.49
4 March 2010	94.26	87.00
5 March 2010	95.58	89.15
8 March 2010	95.56	88.81
9 March 2010	95.73	88.88
10 March 2010	96.16	90.77
11 March 2010	96.55	92.02
12 March 2010	96.53	91.72
15 March 2010	96.57	92.20
16 March 2010	97.32	93.59
17 March 2010	97.89	94.84
18 March 2010	97.86	93.79
19 March 2010	97.36	93.85
22 March 2010	97.86	94.20
23 March 2010	98.56	95.23
24 March 2010	98.02	95.09
25 March 2010	97.85	95.18
26 March 2010	97.92	95.11
29 March 2010	98.48	94.86
30 March 2010	98.48	94.21
31 March 2010	98.16	95.06
1 April 2010	98.89	95.78
2 April 2010	ND	ND
5 April 2010	99.67	96.97
6 April 2010	99.84	99.42
7 April 2010	99.25	98.65
8 April 2010	99.59	99.67
9 April 2010	100.25	99.99
12 April 2010	100.43	100.77
13 April 2010	100.50	99.67
14 April 2010	101.62	102.95
15 April 2010	101.70	102.74
16 April 2010	100.06	99.86
19 April 2010	100.52	100.78
20 April 2010	101.33	103.33
21 April 2010	101.22	102.86
22 April 2010	101.45	103.86
23 April 2010	102.18	103.89
26 April 2010	101.74	101.15
27 April 2010	99.36	98.48
28 April 2010	100.00	100.00
29 April 2010	101.29	102.29
30 April 2010	99.61	101.89
3 May 2010	100.91	103.94
4 May 2010	98.51	100.96
5 May 2010	97.86	100.69
6 May 2010	94.69	96.30
7 May 2010	93.24	95.11
10 May 2010	97.35	101.23
11 May 2010	97.01	101.80
12 May 2010	98.35	103.70
13 May 2010	97.15	102.05
14 May 2010	95.33	98.79
17 May 2010	95.43	98.75
18 May 2010	94.08	94.55
19 May 2010	93.59	93.33
20 May 2010	89.95	88.93
21 May 2010	91.30	92.71
24 May 2010	90.12	89.06
25 May 2010	90.15	90.12
26 May 2010	89.64	88.62
27 May 2010	92.59	92.46
28 May 2010	91.44	90.27
31 May 2010	ND	ND
1 June 2010	89.87	88.32
2 June 2010	92.20	91.40
3 June 2010	92.57	90.28
4 June 2010	89.38	86.66
7 June 2010	88.17	85.12
8 June 2010	89.14	86.62
9 June 2010	88.61	85.08
10 June 2010	91.23	88.71
11 June 2010	91.63	88.21
14 June 2010	91.46	87.04
15 June 2010	93.61	88.91
16 June 2010	93.56	89.23
17 June 2010	93.68	88.72
18 June 2010	93.80	89.40

Middle-left panel
S&P 500 Implied Volatility (VIX)

Percent, ratio scale
Date	Percent
2 January 2009	39.19
5 January 2009	39.08
6 January 2009	38.56
7 January 2009	43.39
8 January 2009	42.56
9 January 2009	42.82
12 January 2009	45.84
13 January 2009	43.27
14 January 2009	49.14
15 January 2009	51.00
16 January 2009	46.11
19 January 2009	ND
20 January 2009	56.65
21 January 2009	46.42
22 January 2009	47.29
23 January 2009	47.27
26 January 2009	45.69
27 January 2009	42.25
28 January 2009	39.66
29 January 2009	42.63
30 January 2009	44.84
2 February 2009	45.52
3 February 2009	43.06
4 February 2009	43.85
5 February 2009	43.73
6 February 2009	43.37
9 February 2009	43.64
10 February 2009	46.67
11 February 2009	44.53
12 February 2009	41.25
13 February 2009	42.93
16 February 2009	ND
17 February 2009	48.66
18 February 2009	48.46
19 February 2009	48.46
20 February 2009	49.30
23 February 2009	52.62
24 February 2009	45.49
25 February 2009	44.67
26 February 2009	44.66
27 February 2009	46.35
2 March 2009	52.65
3 March 2009	50.93
4 March 2009	47.56
5 March 2009	50.17
6 March 2009	48.46
9 March 2009	49.68
10 March 2009	44.37
11 March 2009	43.61
12 March 2009	41.18
13 March 2009	42.36
16 March 2009	43.74
17 March 2009	40.80
18 March 2009	40.06
19 March 2009	43.68
20 March 2009	45.89
23 March 2009	43.23
24 March 2009	42.93
25 March 2009	42.25
26 March 2009	40.36
27 March 2009	41.04
30 March 2009	45.54
31 March 2009	44.14
1 April 2009	42.28
2 April 2009	42.04
3 April 2009	39.70
6 April 2009	40.93
7 April 2009	40.39
8 April 2009	38.85
9 April 2009	36.53
10 April 2009	ND
13 April 2009	37.81
14 April 2009	37.67
15 April 2009	36.17
16 April 2009	35.79
17 April 2009	33.94
20 April 2009	39.18
21 April 2009	37.14
22 April 2009	38.10
23 April 2009	37.15
24 April 2009	36.82
27 April 2009	38.32
28 April 2009	37.95
29 April 2009	36.08
30 April 2009	36.50
1 May 2009	35.30
4 May 2009	34.53
5 May 2009	33.36
6 May 2009	32.45
7 May 2009	33.44
8 May 2009	32.05
11 May 2009	32.87
12 May 2009	31.80
13 May 2009	33.65
14 May 2009	31.37
15 May 2009	33.12
18 May 2009	30.24
19 May 2009	28.80
20 May 2009	29.03
21 May 2009	31.35
22 May 2009	32.63
25 May 2009	ND
26 May 2009	30.62
27 May 2009	32.36
28 May 2009	31.67
29 May 2009	28.92
1 June 2009	30.04
2 June 2009	29.63
3 June 2009	31.02
4 June 2009	30.18
5 June 2009	29.62
8 June 2009	29.77
9 June 2009	28.27
10 June 2009	28.46
11 June 2009	28.11
12 June 2009	28.15
15 June 2009	30.81
16 June 2009	32.68
17 June 2009	31.54
18 June 2009	30.03
19 June 2009	27.99
22 June 2009	31.17
23 June 2009	30.58
24 June 2009	29.05
25 June 2009	26.36
26 June 2009	25.93
29 June 2009	25.35
30 June 2009	26.35
1 July 2009	26.22
2 July 2009	27.95
3 July 2009	ND
6 July 2009	29.00
7 July 2009	30.85
8 July 2009	31.30
9 July 2009	29.78
10 July 2009	29.02
13 July 2009	26.31
14 July 2009	25.02
15 July 2009	25.89
16 July 2009	25.42
17 July 2009	24.34
20 July 2009	24.40
21 July 2009	23.87
22 July 2009	23.47
23 July 2009	23.43
24 July 2009	23.09
27 July 2009	24.28
28 July 2009	25.01
29 July 2009	25.61
30 July 2009	25.40
31 July 2009	25.92
3 August 2009	25.56
4 August 2009	24.89
5 August 2009	24.90
6 August 2009	25.67
7 August 2009	24.76
10 August 2009	24.99
11 August 2009	25.99
12 August 2009	25.45
13 August 2009	24.71
14 August 2009	24.27
17 August 2009	27.89
18 August 2009	26.18
19 August 2009	26.26
20 August 2009	25.09
21 August 2009	25.01
24 August 2009	25.14
25 August 2009	24.92
26 August 2009	24.95
27 August 2009	24.68
28 August 2009	24.76
31 August 2009	26.01
1 September 2009	29.15
2 September 2009	28.90
3 September 2009	27.10
4 September 2009	25.26
7 September 2009	ND
8 September 2009	25.62
9 September 2009	24.32
10 September 2009	23.55
11 September 2009	24.15
14 September 2009	23.86
15 September 2009	23.42
16 September 2009	23.69
17 September 2009	26.01
18 September 2009	23.92
21 September 2009	24.06
22 September 2009	23.08
23 September 2009	23.49
24 September 2009	24.95
25 September 2009	25.61
28 September 2009	24.88
29 September 2009	25.19
30 September 2009	25.61
1 October 2009	28.27
2 October 2009	28.68
5 October 2009	26.84
6 October 2009	25.70
7 October 2009	24.68
8 October 2009	24.18
9 October 2009	23.12
12 October 2009	23.01
13 October 2009	22.99
14 October 2009	22.86
15 October 2009	21.72
16 October 2009	21.43
19 October 2009	21.49
20 October 2009	20.90
21 October 2009	22.22
22 October 2009	20.69
23 October 2009	22.27
26 October 2009	24.31
27 October 2009	24.83
28 October 2009	27.91
29 October 2009	24.76
30 October 2009	30.69
2 November 2009	29.78
3 November 2009	28.81
4 November 2009	27.72
5 November 2009	25.43
6 November 2009	24.19
9 November 2009	23.15
10 November 2009	22.84
11 November 2009	23.04
12 November 2009	24.24
13 November 2009	23.36
16 November 2009	22.89
17 November 2009	22.41
18 November 2009	21.63
19 November 2009	24.06
20 November 2009	22.19
23 November 2009	21.16
24 November 2009	20.47
25 November 2009	20.48
26 November 2009	ND
27 November 2009	24.74
30 November 2009	24.51
1 December 2009	21.92
2 December 2009	21.12
3 December 2009	22.46
4 December 2009	21.25
7 December 2009	22.10
8 December 2009	23.69
9 December 2009	22.66
10 December 2009	24.06
11 December 2009	24.06
14 December 2009	21.15
15 December 2009	21.49
16 December 2009	20.54
17 December 2009	22.51
18 December 2009	21.68
21 December 2009	20.49
22 December 2009	19.54
23 December 2009	19.71
24 December 2009	19.47
25 December 2009	ND
28 December 2009	19.93
29 December 2009	20.01
30 December 2009	19.96
31 December 2009	21.68
1 January 2010	ND
4 January 2010	20.04
5 January 2010	19.35
6 January 2010	19.16
7 January 2010	19.06
8 January 2010	18.13
11 January 2010	17.55
12 January 2010	18.25
13 January 2010	17.85
14 January 2010	17.63
15 January 2010	17.91
18 January 2010	ND
19 January 2010	17.58
20 January 2010	18.68
21 January 2010	22.27
22 January 2010	27.31
25 January 2010	25.41
26 January 2010	24.55
27 January 2010	23.14
28 January 2010	23.73
29 January 2010	24.62
1 February 2010	22.59
2 February 2010	21.48
3 February 2010	21.60
4 February 2010	26.08
5 February 2010	ND
8 February 2010	26.51
9 February 2010	26.00
10 February 2010	25.40
11 February 2010	23.96
12 February 2010	22.73
15 February 2010	ND
16 February 2010	22.25
17 February 2010	21.72
18 February 2010	20.63
19 February 2010	20.02
22 February 2010	19.94
23 February 2010	21.37
24 February 2010	20.27
25 February 2010	20.10
26 February 2010	19.50
1 March 2010	19.26
2 March 2010	19.06
3 March 2010	18.83
4 March 2010	18.72
5 March 2010	17.42
8 March 2010	17.79
9 March 2010	17.92
10 March 2010	18.57
11 March 2010	18.06
12 March 2010	17.58
15 March 2010	18.00
16 March 2010	17.69
17 March 2010	16.91
18 March 2010	16.62
19 March 2010	16.97
22 March 2010	16.87
23 March 2010	16.33
24 March 2010	17.55
25 March 2010	18.40
26 March 2010	17.77
29 March 2010	17.59
30 March 2010	17.13
31 March 2010	17.59
1 April 2010	17.47
2 April 2010	ND
5 April 2010	17.02
6 April 2010	16.23
7 April 2010	16.62
8 April 2010	16.48
9 April 2010	16.14
12 April 2010	15.58
13 April 2010	16.20
14 April 2010	15.59
15 April 2010	15.89
16 April 2010	18.36
19 April 2010	17.34
20 April 2010	15.73
21 April 2010	16.32
22 April 2010	16.47
23 April 2010	16.62
26 April 2010	17.47
27 April 2010	22.81
28 April 2010	21.08
29 April 2010	18.44
30 April 2010	22.05
3 May 2010	20.19
4 May 2010	23.84
5 May 2010	24.91
6 May 2010	32.80
7 May 2010	40.95
10 May 2010	28.84
11 May 2010	28.32
12 May 2010	25.52
13 May 2010	26.68
14 May 2010	31.24
17 May 2010	30.84
18 May 2010	33.55
19 May 2010	35.32
20 May 2010	45.79
21 May 2010	40.10
24 May 2010	38.32
25 May 2010	34.61
26 May 2010	35.02
27 May 2010	29.68
28 May 2010	32.07
31 May 2010	ND
1 June 2010	35.54
2 June 2010	30.17
3 June 2010	29.46
4 June 2010	35.48
7 June 2010	36.57
8 June 2010	33.70
9 June 2010	33.73
10 June 2010	30.57
11 June 2010	28.79
14 June 2010	28.58
15 June 2010	25.87
16 June 2010	25.92
17 June 2010	25.05
18 June 2010	23.82

[A vertical line indicates the EU/IMF Package on May 10, 2010.]

Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.

Middle-right panel
Economic Surveys, June 2010

Blue Chip:

Europe's debt crisis is the largest risk
Primary channel through tighter financial conditions

Primary Dealers:

Greater downside risk than in April

Bottom-left panel
Risk Neutral Distribution for S&P 500 Returns*, Next 30 Days

A line chart shows distributions on three recent dates. The x-axis shows percent return, and the y-axis shows percent probability per percent return. The distribution for Last FOMC: April 27, 2010 begins near 0% probability at about -30% return, peaks at about 9% probability at about 2.5% return, and decreases to near 0% probability at about 13% return. The distribution for Last month: May 7, 2010 begins near 0% probability at about -45% return, peaks at about 5.5% probability at about 5% return, and decreases to near 0% probability at about 20% return. The most recent distribution, June 21, 2010, begins near 0% probability at about -33% return, peaks at about 7.5% probability at about 2.5% return, and decreases to near 0% probability at about 13% return.

* Probability distribution implied by options on the index. Return to text

Note: Dotted lines represent an extrapolation using exponentially decaying tails.

Bottom-right panel
Downside Skewness of Volatility*, Next 30 Days

A line chart shows one curve over January 2009 through June 21, 2010. Data are daily; unit is percent. The curve begins near 60, fluctuates around that level through September 2009, and then generally increases while continuing to fluctuate. It peaks near 70 in late May 2010, and ends at about 67.

* Five-day moving average of the difference between the 5% and 50% quantiles, divided by the difference in the 5% and 95% quantiles. Return to text

Exhibit 13
Sectors Vulnerable to a Slowdown in the U.S. Economy

Top-left panel
Home Mortgages

Millions
Period	Foreclosure inventory	> 90 days delinquent	Total (approximate)
1998:Q1	0.47	0.25	0.72
1998:Q2	0.46	0.26	0.72
1998:Q3	0.49	0.28	0.77
1998:Q4	0.48	0.28	0.76
1999:Q1	0.50	0.26	0.76
1999:Q2	0.47	0.25	0.72
1999:Q3	0.43	0.26	0.69
1999:Q4	0.44	0.27	0.71
2000:Q1	0.43	0.24	0.67
2000:Q2	0.39	0.24	0.63
2000:Q3	0.40	0.27	0.67
2000:Q4	0.44	0.34	0.78
2001:Q1	0.43	0.30	0.73
2001:Q2	0.45	0.33	0.78
2001:Q3	0.49	0.37	0.86
2001:Q4	0.54	0.40	0.94
2002:Q1	0.56	0.35	0.91
2002:Q2	0.58	0.38	0.96
2002:Q3	0.60	0.42	1.02
2002:Q4	0.63	0.44	1.07
2003:Q1	0.64	0.39	1.03
2003:Q2	0.60	0.43	1.03
2003:Q3	0.61	0.45	1.06
2003:Q4	0.69	0.47	1.16
2004:Q1	0.70	0.45	1.15
2004:Q2	0.65	0.46	1.11
2004:Q3	0.64	0.46	1.10
2004:Q4	0.64	0.50	1.14
2005:Q1	0.60	0.44	1.04
2005:Q2	0.55	0.45	1.00
2005:Q3	0.54	0.46	1.00
2005:Q4	0.55	0.60	1.15
2006:Q1	0.55	0.53	1.08
2006:Q2	0.55	0.50	1.05
2006:Q3	0.61	0.53	1.14
2006:Q4	0.67	0.57	1.24
2007:Q1	0.71	0.53	1.24
2007:Q2	0.78	0.58	1.36
2007:Q3	0.93	0.69	1.62
2007:Q4	1.11	0.86	1.97
2008:Q1	1.32	0.85	2.17
2008:Q2	1.46	0.94	2.40
2008:Q3	1.56	1.18	2.74
2008:Q4	1.73	1.61	3.34
2009:Q1	2.00	1.80	3.80
2009:Q2	2.23	1.96	4.19
2009:Q3	2.33	2.35	4.68
2009:Q4	2.38	2.72	5.10
2010:Q1	2.41	2.62	5.03

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.

Top-right panel
Valuation of Single-family Homes

Percent
Period	Deviation from price-to-rent ratio*
1978:Q1	-4.83
1978:Q2	-4.37
1978:Q3	-2.28
1978:Q4	-1.73
1979:Q1	1.70
1979:Q2	4.74
1979:Q3	5.00
1979:Q4	5.41
1980:Q1	5.72
1980:Q2	5.40
1980:Q3	5.82
1980:Q4	5.10
1981:Q1	4.82
1981:Q2	4.35
1981:Q3	3.28
1981:Q4	2.69
1982:Q1	0.81
1982:Q2	-0.39
1982:Q3	-2.23
1982:Q4	-3.77
1983:Q1	-4.19
1983:Q2	-4.07
1983:Q3	-3.88
1983:Q4	-3.85
1984:Q1	-3.89
1984:Q2	-3.87
1984:Q3	-3.90
1984:Q4	-5.00
1985:Q1	-4.99
1985:Q2	-5.36
1985:Q3	-5.77
1985:Q4	-5.65
1986:Q1	-4.72
1986:Q2	-4.56
1986:Q3	-3.60
1986:Q4	-3.27
1987:Q1	-0.76
1987:Q2	1.42
1987:Q3	2.22
1987:Q4	2.88
1988:Q1	3.08
1988:Q2	4.92
1988:Q3	6.50
1988:Q4	7.66
1989:Q1	9.03
1989:Q2	9.42
1989:Q3	8.73
1989:Q4	8.84
1990:Q1	9.16
1990:Q2	7.96
1990:Q3	5.90
1990:Q4	4.06
1991:Q1	2.20
1991:Q2	2.21
1991:Q3	1.02
1991:Q4	-0.25
1992:Q1	-0.76
1992:Q2	-1.43
1992:Q3	-2.35
1992:Q4	-3.04
1993:Q1	-3.52
1993:Q2	-3.88
1993:Q3	-3.75
1993:Q4	-3.44
1994:Q1	-4.18
1994:Q2	-4.17
1994:Q3	-4.70
1994:Q4	-5.01
1995:Q1	-5.71
1995:Q2	-5.93
1995:Q3	-5.78
1995:Q4	-6.08
1996:Q1	-6.26
1996:Q2	-6.07
1996:Q3	-6.61
1996:Q4	-6.95
1997:Q1	-6.99
1997:Q2	-6.76
1997:Q3	-6.50
1997:Q4	-5.73
1998:Q1	-4.35
1998:Q2	-3.94
1998:Q3	-3.26
1998:Q4	-2.33
1999:Q1	-1.81
1999:Q2	-0.59
1999:Q3	0.63
1999:Q4	1.74
2000:Q1	3.31
2000:Q2	5.16
2000:Q3	6.20
2000:Q4	7.02
2001:Q1	8.34
2001:Q2	8.64
2001:Q3	9.33
2001:Q4	9.86
2002:Q1	10.79
2002:Q2	12.61
2002:Q3	14.27
2002:Q4	14.91
2003:Q1	16.26
2003:Q2	17.58
2003:Q3	19.94
2003:Q4	22.02
2004:Q1	25.61
2004:Q2	28.95
2004:Q3	31.14
2004:Q4	33.52
2005:Q1	38.26
2005:Q2	40.85
2005:Q3	43.03
2005:Q4	44.23
2006:Q1	45.69
2006:Q2	43.71
2006:Q3	41.69
2006:Q4	40.46
2007:Q1	37.99
2007:Q2	34.89
2007:Q3	30.97
2007:Q4	26.37
2008:Q1	21.13
2008:Q2	16.20
2008:Q3	10.27
2008:Q4	2.78
2009:Q1	-4.14
2009:Q2	-3.02
2009:Q3	-2.15
2009:Q4	-2.28
2010:Q1	-2.66
Forecast
2010:Q2	-4.42
2010:Q3	-6.43
2010:Q4	-7.86
2011:Q1	-8.86
2011:Q2	-9.59
2011:Q3	-10.20
2011:Q4	-10.68

* Detrended price-to-rent ratio. Return to table

Source: Home price from First American Loan Performance.

Middle-left panel
Liquidity at Commercial Banks

Percent of assets
Period	Liquid assets	Short-term noncore-deposit liabilities
1999	24.7	36.4
2000	24.3	37.0
2001	25.2	34.3
2002	25.6	33.8
2003	25.7	33.8
2004	25.1	34.3
2005	24.3	35.7
2006	23.6	37.8
2007	22.2	39.6
2008	25.7	38.2
2009	26.0	33.1
2010:Q1	26.3	34.0

Source: Call Reports.

Middle-right panel
Profits at Commercial Banks

Percent
Period	Loan loss provisions	Return on assets
1999:Q1	2.41	1.98
1999:Q2	2.31	1.91
1999:Q3	2.63	2.25
1999:Q4	2.41	2.06
2000:Q1	2.44	1.99
2000:Q2	2.06	1.52
2000:Q3	2.37	1.93
2000:Q4	2.41	1.85
2001:Q1	2.39	1.84
2001:Q2	2.42	1.81
2001:Q3	2.42	1.69
2001:Q4	2.65	1.80
2002:Q1	2.65	1.92
2002:Q2	2.75	2.06
2002:Q3	2.77	2.06
2002:Q4	2.51	1.89
2003:Q1	2.59	2.03
2003:Q2	2.57	2.05
2003:Q3	2.46	2.06
2003:Q4	2.52	2.15
2004:Q1	2.40	2.03
2004:Q2	2.28	1.96
2004:Q3	2.24	1.96
2004:Q4	2.26	1.99
2005:Q1	2.24	1.97
2005:Q2	2.15	1.88
2005:Q3	2.30	1.96
2005:Q4	2.30	1.95
2006:Q1	2.16	1.93
2006:Q2	2.23	2.00
2006:Q3	2.19	1.93
2006:Q4	2.53	2.17
2007:Q1	2.09	1.77
2007:Q2	2.16	1.80
2007:Q3	2.07	1.56
2007:Q4	1.60	0.62
2008:Q1	1.93	0.88
2008:Q2	1.71	0.47
2008:Q3	1.72	0.26
2008:Q4	0.81	-1.34
2009:Q1	2.02	0.19
2009:Q2	1.98	-0.07
2009:Q3	1.91	-0.06
2009:Q4	2.33	0.37
2010:Q1	2.13	0.55

Source: Call Reports.

Bottom-left panel
Loan Loss Rates at Commercial Banks

(Percent of loans)
	Total*	CRE	Other
2009	3.0	2.4	3.2
2010^p	2.8	4.1	2.6
2011^p	2.8	5.0	2.3

* Residential mortgage, consumer credit, CRE, and C&I loans. Return to table

p. Staff forecast. Return to table

Bottom-right panel
CAMELS 3, 4 and 5 Rated Commercial Banks

Billions of dollars
Period	Assets
1990	1238.00
1991	1459.00
1992	954.00
1993	536.00
1994	301.00
1995	56.00
1996	36.00
1997	40.00
1998	177.00
1999	92.00
2000	123.00
2001	199.10
2002	243.20
2003	151.30
2004	151.40
2005	97.64
2006	85.94
2007	103.00
2008	2560.00
2009	4818.00
2010:H1*	4529.00

* Data through June 10, 2010. Return to table

Exhibit 14
Financial Risks from European Debt Crisis

Top-left panel
Banking System Credit Exposure to Peripheral Europe

Year-end 2009, billions of dollars
	Greece and Portugal	Spain, Ireland, and Italy	Total as Percent of Tier 1
United States	24	208	29
France	129	819	311
Germany	92	612	207

Note: Credit exposure is cross-border claims, foreign-office claims on local residents, and counterparty credit exposure from derivatives contracts, and excludes contingent credit exposures. Exposures are adjusted for third-party guarantees and liquid collateral. Derivatives exposures are not available for Germany.

Source: BIS consolidated banking statistics.

Top-right panel
Supervisory Assessments

Collected information on largest exposures and risk management
Roughly estimated losses
Preliminary assessment: Direct losses from Greece and Portugal with minimal spillovers are not substantial
But concerned about data, spillovers, and indirect exposures

Middle panel
U.S. Prime Money Market Funds' Exposures to European Entities*

	Total Exposure as of June 2 (Percent of assets)	Percentage Point Change from May 19
	Total Exposure as of June 2 (Percent of assets)	Total Exposure	Debt Maturing in Seven Days or More
1. Peripheral Europe	4.5	-1.0	-0.6
2. France and Germany	20.0	-1.1	-1.0
3. Other Europe	26.5	0.7	0.5
Memo: U.S. financial institutions**	18.8	1.0	0.7

* Banks, conduits, and sovereigns. Return to text

** Excludes government agencies and GSEs. Return to table

Note: Peripheral Europe is Ireland, Italy, and Spain. No assets in entities from Greece and Portugal.

Source: Investment Company Institute, confidential survey of money market fund families that manage 78 percent of total MMF assets.

Bottom-left panel
Unsecured Financial Commercial Paper Outstanding In the U.S. Market

Billions of dollars
Date	Other Europe	France and Germany	United States	Ireland, Italy, and Spain
1 September 2009	167.45	102.84	132.45	45.00
2 September 2009	170.08	102.70	134.46	45.38
3 September 2009	172.02	102.25	135.35	46.37
4 September 2009	170.90	102.61	131.51	45.67
7 September 2009	ND	ND	ND	ND
8 September 2009	167.28	102.19	132.75	44.54
9 September 2009	170.88	100.66	133.38	45.10
10 September 2009	169.58	104.15	136.13	45.38
11 September 2009	170.31	104.98	134.33	44.82
14 September 2009	167.43	109.57	132.70	44.61
15 September 2009	169.75	101.81	131.02	44.55
16 September 2009	169.54	103.29	130.41	45.03
17 September 2009	170.12	105.46	132.93	43.99
18 September 2009	165.90	106.66	129.84	43.49
21 September 2009	166.23	107.54	129.89	43.93
22 September 2009	169.15	107.48	131.63	45.43
23 September 2009	171.85	112.38	129.54	45.61
24 September 2009	175.02	113.03	130.48	47.85
25 September 2009	174.83	114.96	130.91	48.11
28 September 2009	174.09	114.31	124.66	47.99
29 September 2009	176.42	120.86	124.03	48.40
30 September 2009	175.71	118.53	121.48	49.60
1 October 2009	177.27	118.57	120.39	49.78
2 October 2009	179.19	117.81	120.04	48.58
5 October 2009	181.11	118.64	119.01	48.56
6 October 2009	180.93	117.84	120.38	47.98
7 October 2009	180.47	117.14	120.83	48.46
8 October 2009	185.03	117.88	124.91	47.39
9 October 2009	183.71	119.46	122.93	48.19
12 October 2009	ND	ND	ND	ND
13 October 2009	180.88	116.21	123.58	47.75
14 October 2009	184.07	120.80	123.07	48.63
15 October 2009	182.83	118.67	122.93	49.66
16 October 2009	185.30	122.12	123.28	50.99
19 October 2009	184.48	121.13	124.07	50.10
20 October 2009	182.49	118.97	123.91	50.94
21 October 2009	182.58	115.21	123.40	50.80
22 October 2009	182.61	118.24	125.23	51.62
23 October 2009	185.50	120.36	125.97	52.18
26 October 2009	185.04	121.34	123.86	52.18
27 October 2009	182.55	124.97	124.00	51.51
28 October 2009	179.30	126.66	123.52	52.88
29 October 2009	178.37	126.71	124.90	53.08
30 October 2009	176.99	125.44	123.83	53.42
2 November 2009	174.97	119.32	120.38	53.31
3 November 2009	174.42	121.65	121.03	54.38
4 November 2009	169.62	124.08	123.89	54.71
5 November 2009	174.43	125.35	124.47	55.57
6 November 2009	174.82	123.98	125.00	54.05
9 November 2009	173.04	123.37	118.59	55.43
10 November 2009	173.79	121.65	119.24	56.16
11 November 2009	173.79	121.65	119.24	56.16
12 November 2009	179.07	124.51	119.42	57.23
13 November 2009	179.57	124.69	116.90	57.54
16 November 2009	181.45	123.70	116.87	54.71
17 November 2009	182.36	124.45	118.22	56.78
18 November 2009	186.11	125.62	118.96	61.86
19 November 2009	186.07	127.38	119.66	61.34
20 November 2009	187.19	129.00	118.75	61.46
23 November 2009	184.33	127.91	116.67	59.39
24 November 2009	185.22	129.37	118.35	59.31
25 November 2009	184.22	130.56	116.82	59.94
26 November 2009	ND	ND	ND	ND
27 November 2009	184.42	129.27	118.67	59.52
30 November 2009	173.85	129.08	116.37	58.41
1 December 2009	177.76	127.55	113.81	58.65
2 December 2009	180.49	132.89	114.90	58.64
3 December 2009	177.70	128.72	114.58	58.49
4 December 2009	174.06	130.32	112.19	57.86
7 December 2009	175.82	130.87	111.38	59.78
8 December 2009	175.62	130.53	111.04	61.01
9 December 2009	176.95	127.47	110.82	61.30
10 December 2009	174.77	126.05	111.99	62.73
11 December 2009	180.13	124.10	112.20	63.29
14 December 2009	178.55	127.13	111.48	62.91
15 December 2009	177.84	122.35	109.33	62.16
16 December 2009	179.27	120.81	107.49	61.52
17 December 2009	177.65	123.98	107.33	61.18
18 December 2009	176.28	124.49	106.34	60.98
21 December 2009	172.74	124.02	104.87	60.09
22 December 2009	173.26	126.67	105.40	60.97
23 December 2009	176.97	125.19	107.45	61.20
24 December 2009	175.12	124.23	108.09	62.78
25 December 2009	ND	ND	ND	ND
28 December 2009	176.74	125.49	107.83	63.59
29 December 2009	178.98	128.25	106.96	64.17
30 December 2009	177.12	135.40	114.35	64.53
31 December 2009	175.64	129.20	107.15	64.30
1 January 2010	ND	ND	ND	ND
4 January 2010	175.89	122.16	105.97	63.01
5 January 2010	184.98	124.81	106.75	63.23
6 January 2010	185.06	131.42	105.71	64.32
7 January 2010	186.04	142.85	105.47	64.65
8 January 2010	186.16	141.40	105.93	64.19
11 January 2010	184.62	139.69	104.11	64.39
12 January 2010	186.24	139.23	105.30	63.88
13 January 2010	189.63	141.46	106.42	64.30
14 January 2010	192.03	138.27	107.36	64.68
15 January 2010	186.24	134.36	108.47	62.19
18 January 2010	ND	ND	ND	ND
19 January 2010	183.10	133.11	105.68	60.99
20 January 2010	185.80	135.91	105.68	61.01
21 January 2010	185.07	138.23	106.18	63.01
22 January 2010	184.11	138.26	106.23	62.30
25 January 2010	183.31	138.52	106.85	62.29
26 January 2010	183.67	139.50	106.79	61.35
27 January 2010	185.64	138.20	109.28	62.74
28 January 2010	183.78	137.87	109.71	62.48
29 January 2010	179.75	139.91	109.57	61.73
1 February 2010	181.65	132.62	109.18	60.48
2 February 2010	184.22	133.71	108.30	60.47
3 February 2010	180.94	136.58	108.46	60.31
4 February 2010	183.23	134.55	108.01	59.86
5 February 2010	183.13	134.31	107.92	60.61
8 February 2010	179.20	130.75	107.10	60.58
9 February 2010	179.94	130.47	106.88	59.69
10 February 2010	180.65	131.62	108.31	59.89
11 February 2010	180.81	137.22	107.51	60.72
12 February 2010	175.53	138.09	105.87	59.23
15 February 2010	ND	ND	ND	ND
16 February 2010	175.21	139.10	106.52	58.79
17 February 2010	176.83	137.59	105.49	59.68
18 February 2010	176.90	140.38	107.35	58.89
19 February 2010	177.47	139.13	106.22	59.10
22 February 2010	175.59	139.09	105.94	58.79
23 February 2010	180.24	142.36	105.15	58.96
24 February 2010	183.40	148.61	106.58	60.82
25 February 2010	181.40	140.06	105.78	60.67
26 February 2010	176.36	140.31	104.83	60.40
1 March 2010	178.13	134.51	103.32	60.80
2 March 2010	180.43	136.96	102.51	60.76
3 March 2010	178.11	134.92	103.28	60.59
4 March 2010	177.77	135.23	102.48	61.14
5 March 2010	175.13	133.43	102.30	60.92
8 March 2010	168.36	137.36	103.81	61.70
9 March 2010	175.02	138.15	103.90	63.68
10 March 2010	174.59	135.69	105.22	64.83
11 March 2010	172.64	134.43	104.36	64.07
12 March 2010	170.45	134.43	104.28	63.91
15 March 2010	166.48	134.21	102.88	62.76
16 March 2010	162.40	131.89	102.54	62.75
17 March 2010	165.18	132.85	103.08	62.66
18 March 2010	166.22	131.56	102.92	58.78
19 March 2010	165.51	132.70	103.53	58.92
22 March 2010	164.82	127.16	103.14	60.00
23 March 2010	168.27	131.32	103.15	60.89
24 March 2010	167.02	132.55	104.16	60.85
25 March 2010	171.90	134.21	105.46	60.48
26 March 2010	169.15	133.01	106.39	60.94
29 March 2010	166.88	131.92	106.21	60.58
30 March 2010	167.29	129.76	105.00	61.46
31 March 2010	161.45	128.28	110.18	63.34
1 April 2010	157.58	126.63	101.67	60.84
2 April 2010	157.06	126.37	101.65	62.06
5 April 2010	161.71	123.55	97.38	61.31
6 April 2010	158.25	124.76	96.41	61.66
7 April 2010	161.18	123.98	96.95	64.57
8 April 2010	157.72	126.22	97.90	65.41
9 April 2010	157.40	126.50	98.86	63.71
12 April 2010	156.21	124.95	98.70	64.21
13 April 2010	156.15	126.08	98.86	65.19
14 April 2010	154.83	126.78	99.25	65.35
15 April 2010	154.73	132.48	99.85	63.17
16 April 2010	155.22	128.17	99.95	62.32
19 April 2010	154.16	133.66	100.32	63.22
20 April 2010	158.69	135.21	100.24	62.39
21 April 2010	160.22	133.34	100.93	62.81
22 April 2010	162.77	134.12	101.71	61.13
23 April 2010	164.14	132.92	101.59	59.84
26 April 2010	162.44	133.39	102.14	61.16
27 April 2010	163.97	139.03	103.96	58.90
28 April 2010	163.16	141.58	103.06	58.59
29 April 2010	162.10	140.94	103.55	58.15
30 April 2010	150.77	138.42	104.06	55.61
3 May 2010	158.42	138.24	102.05	52.99
4 May 2010	158.87	139.01	102.27	52.81
5 May 2010	165.30	141.70	103.14	53.15
6 May 2010	171.21	137.14	102.31	50.55
7 May 2010	170.21	131.37	102.83	48.63
10 May 2010	170.38	128.83	103.48	49.18
11 May 2010	169.16	129.42	102.18	48.18
12 May 2010	168.25	130.38	103.39	48.45
13 May 2010	170.06	126.06	101.98	48.44
14 May 2010	165.74	128.57	99.97	47.39
17 May 2010	166.58	124.94	97.03	46.15
18 May 2010	164.35	122.15	97.98	46.45
19 May 2010	161.86	122.89	98.70	45.80
20 May 2010	161.36	119.69	98.69	45.54
21 May 2010	160.36	121.91	100.99	44.22
24 May 2010	164.08	117.00	100.59	44.32
25 May 2010	163.78	119.41	99.37	43.51
26 May 2010	167.78	121.68	100.76	42.23
27 May 2010	163.93	123.79	102.45	41.82
28 May 2010	162.04	123.53	102.40	40.36
31 May 2010	ND	ND	ND	ND
1 June 2010	168.30	114.14	98.11	38.73
2 June 2010	169.97	117.15	98.01	38.87
3 June 2010	172.17	114.58	96.81	38.84
4 June 2010	171.08	112.24	98.84	38.87
7 June 2010	171.35	112.09	99.22	37.72
8 June 2010	171.26	113.16	101.12	35.18
9 June 2010	171.73	114.36	100.18	35.49
10 June 2010	175.36	119.87	99.86	35.59
11 June 2010	176.63	119.96	99.36	34.44
14 June 2010	180.02	115.97	99.77	34.01
15 June 2010	183.72	112.64	99.58	33.31
16 June 2010	185.18	114.70	100.48	33.49
17 June 2010	186.09	115.50	100.37	34.24
18 June 2010	187.80	113.00	99.27	35.11
21 June 2010	186.35	109.93	98.11	39.04

Bottom-right panel
30-day Spreads on Unsecured Financial Commercial Paper Issued In the U.S. Market*

Basis points
Date	Other Europe	France and Germany	United States	Ireland, Italy, and Spain
1 September 2009	11.36	8.98	20.87	12.63
2 September 2009	11.62	8.12	19.04	11.26
3 September 2009	9.91	8.16	19.14	10.98
4 September 2009	9.91	8.79	19.53	13.90
7 September 2009	9.22	9.17	22.74	17.17
8 September 2009	11.53	9.18	10.95	19.58
9 September 2009	10.27	10.04	12.97	22.83
10 September 2009	10.70	10.04	16.16	30.81
11 September 2009	11.19	9.67	17.32	27.50
14 September 2009	11.08	9.34	17.24	23.60
15 September 2009	9.22	9.09	16.48	16.86
16 September 2009	9.57	8.66	16.25	17.57
17 September 2009	10.01	11.42	13.00	11.27
18 September 2009	9.59	10.56	12.97	17.50
21 September 2009	9.20	9.98	11.05	20.58
22 September 2009	12.37	11.11	13.36	29.23
23 September 2009	11.50	10.91	13.72	31.74
24 September 2009	10.41	8.62	13.23	33.94
25 September 2009	9.72	8.43	11.54	28.26
28 September 2009	9.38	8.51	11.12	27.98
29 September 2009	7.20	7.79	9.31	24.95
30 September 2009	6.93	6.64	7.97	18.08
1 October 2009	8.80	6.28	9.65	21.62
2 October 2009	8.64	6.87	11.78	24.10
5 October 2009	9.20	7.04	13.08	27.67
6 October 2009	8.60	6.55	14.69	26.36
7 October 2009	9.47	7.63	15.35	34.22
8 October 2009	7.44	8.67	12.77	30.26
9 October 2009	7.31	8.25	11.38	26.65
12 October 2009	6.58	8.57	10.80	24.12
13 October 2009	7.94	7.77	10.82	20.52
14 October 2009	6.81	7.37	11.41	12.81
15 October 2009	8.18	5.72	14.17	10.45
16 October 2009	10.13	6.07	14.19	9.93
19 October 2009	10.26	7.67	13.43	9.04
20 October 2009	10.08	7.82	10.73	11.37
21 October 2009	10.73	6.61	9.48	13.03
22 October 2009	11.06	6.87	8.34	11.56
23 October 2009	10.52	7.40	8.71	14.93
26 October 2009	10.35	5.72	9.31	15.80
27 October 2009	9.34	5.29	9.73	15.02
28 October 2009	9.27	6.71	10.38	13.19
29 October 2009	8.21	6.98	10.55	15.33
30 October 2009	7.29	6.61	10.79	16.66
2 November 2009	13.29	7.38	9.72	21.70
3 November 2009	13.33	8.76	11.07	24.16
4 November 2009	14.49	8.97	10.84	24.86
5 November 2009	15.13	10.11	10.96	23.24
6 November 2009	16.23	11.67	11.66	19.10
9 November 2009	9.66	10.97	12.70	15.57
10 November 2009	8.39	9.16	9.56	9.85
11 November 2009	6.68	8.88	9.44	7.83
12 November 2009	4.02	6.77	7.89	3.13
13 November 2009	2.87	4.32	7.29	3.11
16 November 2009	2.94	10.67	5.12	0.36
17 November 2009	5.89	13.34	6.73	5.68
18 November 2009	5.53	12.27	7.13	5.68
19 November 2009	7.20	12.91	7.82	16.94
20 November 2009	7.22	12.29	6.21	15.19
23 November 2009	7.30	7.06	6.09	15.32
24 November 2009	6.48	5.98	6.56	11.87
25 November 2009	9.01	4.85	9.80	24.43
26 November 2009	9.58	3.82	10.48	19.78
27 November 2009	10.80	3.79	5.43	20.53
30 November 2009	11.35	3.31	5.41	73.44
1 December 2009	22.97	13.28	5.59	74.45
2 December 2009	18.66	14.06	2.90	57.66
3 December 2009	14.52	11.15	4.66	50.63
4 December 2009	13.42	11.23	9.59	53.71
7 December 2009	14.42	10.85	9.37	15.18
8 December 2009	6.34	2.37	9.16	16.57
9 December 2009	6.73	1.36	6.34	14.89
10 December 2009	7.96	2.57	6.49	11.53
11 December 2009	9.17	3.62	6.83	8.61
14 December 2009	7.58	4.09	8.14	5.30
15 December 2009	8.39	4.86	7.28	51.32
16 December 2009	9.37	6.87	8.48	54.78
17 December 2009	8.65	6.36	7.43	55.24
18 December 2009	6.42	6.29	6.97	55.30
21 December 2009	7.69	8.18	6.86	56.96
22 December 2009	8.04	8.32	7.75	10.03
23 December 2009	5.63	5.30	6.45	8.59
24 December 2009	5.94	6.05	6.19	8.78
25 December 2009	6.97	5.84	4.78	11.60
28 December 2009	1.09	-1.65	0.80	10.61
29 December 2009	1.09	-1.65	0.80	10.61
30 December 2009	NC	NC	NC	NC
31 December 2009	NC	NC	NC	NC
1 January 2010	NC	NC	NC	NC
4 January 2010	5.44	-0.01	5.23	2.81
5 January 2010	4.46	0.22	3.59	3.76
6 January 2010	6.80	0.82	4.57	5.89
7 January 2010	7.58	1.20	7.98	5.62
8 January 2010	8.47	2.04	8.83	5.91
11 January 2010	8.29	2.82	7.74	6.46
12 January 2010	10.47	4.27	7.91	8.24
13 January 2010	10.20	4.41	7.76	8.31
14 January 2010	8.85	4.14	4.49	8.18
15 January 2010	10.21	7.20	3.53	9.47
18 January 2010	11.63	8.02	4.46	10.45
19 January 2010	10.53	9.31	4.75	7.72
20 January 2010	8.66	11.36	4.77	7.88
21 January 2010	9.40	12.08	5.90	7.72
22 January 2010	8.63	7.18	5.48	5.53
25 January 2010	8.78	6.88	8.49	6.11
26 January 2010	9.43	5.28	8.79	7.57
27 January 2010	10.80	4.22	9.78	9.03
28 January 2010	11.70	3.76	9.79	9.23
29 January 2010	10.80	4.63	9.93	10.91
1 February 2010	11.44	6.12	9.42	10.05
2 February 2010	10.81	6.37	9.66	10.18
3 February 2010	12.09	6.24	8.76	6.49
4 February 2010	11.50	7.43	9.74	7.57
5 February 2010	11.60	7.27	9.98	7.26
8 February 2010	11.49	5.97	7.65	7.83
9 February 2010	11.17	6.54	8.86	7.13
10 February 2010	10.52	6.77	9.87	8.36
11 February 2010	9.54	5.95	10.32	7.62
12 February 2010	10.46	6.31	10.70	6.56
15 February 2010	10.08	6.22	11.81	6.42
16 February 2010	9.49	5.01	11.57	6.65
17 February 2010	8.25	4.74	13.18	7.45
18 February 2010	8.98	4.42	10.66	6.40
19 February 2010	6.96	3.58	12.15	8.88
22 February 2010	6.53	3.76	11.62	10.96
23 February 2010	8.27	3.75	9.88	11.60
24 February 2010	8.40	4.00	8.38	10.92
25 February 2010	9.31	4.29	12.05	11.66
26 February 2010	8.67	4.27	9.37	10.53
1 March 2010	9.85	4.41	8.62	6.89
2 March 2010	8.46	5.54	10.36	6.21
3 March 2010	8.88	5.91	9.92	6.25
4 March 2010	8.14	5.84	6.90	6.57
5 March 2010	12.76	6.07	8.00	8.57
8 March 2010	12.49	5.97	8.74	9.45
9 March 2010	11.60	4.41	7.37	10.35
10 March 2010	10.61	3.72	7.35	10.10
11 March 2010	9.96	4.79	7.27	9.05
12 March 2010	4.90	6.80	8.02	8.11
15 March 2010	3.98	8.59	9.83	7.02
16 March 2010	4.33	8.44	10.17	5.62
17 March 2010	4.44	8.45	10.22	5.58
18 March 2010	5.33	7.98	10.88	6.12
19 March 2010	7.28	6.17	9.34	6.46
22 March 2010	8.32	5.26	6.88	7.52
23 March 2010	10.00	6.01	6.40	7.75
24 March 2010	9.63	5.52	5.63	8.27
25 March 2010	8.64	4.53	5.04	12.14
26 March 2010	7.98	4.49	5.96	11.02
29 March 2010	8.66	3.34	6.28	11.16
30 March 2010	6.69	2.88	6.69	13.85
31 March 2010	6.99	3.03	19.31	13.53
1 April 2010	15.24	3.90	20.58	30.77
2 April 2010	16.72	3.64	23.66	35.19
5 April 2010	15.51	4.46	24.05	34.85
6 April 2010	15.79	5.02	23.47	30.97
7 April 2010	15.23	4.91	7.91	31.46
8 April 2010	5.69	5.30	6.75	4.57
9 April 2010	8.67	5.71	6.57	8.06
12 April 2010	8.88	5.74	6.33	7.54
13 April 2010	8.04	5.70	6.68	7.12
14 April 2010	8.43	6.04	7.79	6.61
15 April 2010	7.75	5.22	7.00	7.85
16 April 2010	4.21	4.37	6.07	4.27
19 April 2010	4.01	4.31	5.90	5.71
20 April 2010	5.75	4.33	5.16	6.22
21 April 2010	5.32	4.24	4.28	6.45
22 April 2010	6.83	4.51	4.18	7.72
23 April 2010	7.80	5.16	4.45	7.70
26 April 2010	6.82	4.92	5.80	6.86
27 April 2010	6.13	5.09	6.05	6.36
28 April 2010	5.93	4.36	6.02	6.79
29 April 2010	7.89	4.88	7.17	4.49
30 April 2010	8.29	5.39	8.13	6.41
3 May 2010	8.95	5.41	12.91	6.66
4 May 2010	8.65	5.30	12.53	7.78
5 May 2010	11.79	6.89	13.62	8.94
6 May 2010	9.27	7.23	15.50	8.83
7 May 2010	11.03	8.05	15.82	8.89
10 May 2010	12.28	9.57	9.51	10.66
11 May 2010	13.21	10.69	10.99	10.91
12 May 2010	11.78	10.67	9.98	11.34
13 May 2010	12.54	11.74	8.28	12.67
14 May 2010	11.33	12.74	11.26	15.61
17 May 2010	10.76	12.78	11.32	20.41
18 May 2010	13.96	14.95	14.18	20.91
19 May 2010	14.66	16.72	14.80	24.25
20 May 2010	14.80	17.37	13.78	27.32
21 May 2010	16.80	18.35	10.38	25.11
24 May 2010	17.47	18.78	11.43	21.63
25 May 2010	15.58	18.53	11.70	25.32
26 May 2010	15.67	17.78	12.07	24.93
27 May 2010	16.51	17.30	12.95	25.65
28 May 2010	15.29	15.59	12.79	30.53
31 May 2010	15.69	15.66	12.98	32.82
1 June 2010	15.04	14.63	10.02	69.77
2 June 2010	14.61	14.37	10.88	97.76
3 June 2010	16.48	15.50	11.38	103.41
4 June 2010	17.76	14.81	12.77	124.51
7 June 2010	18.81	16.80	11.98	98.35
8 June 2010	17.82	18.57	12.41	59.65
9 June 2010	19.11	20.07	12.82	32.03
10 June 2010	16.80	21.10	13.40	22.79
11 June 2010	17.25	22.50	13.26	22.43
14 June 2010	17.06	22.06	14.80	22.28
15 June 2010	19.26	21.30	15.28	25.29
16 June 2010	18.24	20.95	14.89	28.93
17 June 2010	18.95	20.00	14.33	36.28
18 June 2010	16.74	22.71	18.06	44.22
21 June 2010	16.40	21.21	17.00	48.91

* Five-day moving average. Spreads computed over the AA nonfinancial unsecured rate. Return to text

Exhibit 15
Possible Implications of European Debt Crisis for the U.S. Economy

Top-left panel
Tail-risk Scenario

Re-emergence of recession in Europe would slow pace of recovery in the U.S.
Bigger threat to the U.S. economy would be the global financial spillovers.

Top-right panel
U.S. Stock Market Index

Index, 2009:Q4 = 100
Period	Baseline	April GB	European debt crisis
2008:Q1	115.96	ND	ND
2008:Q2	113.72	ND	ND
2008:Q3	103.29	ND	ND
2008:Q4	79.04	ND	ND
2009:Q1	70.57	ND	ND
2009:Q2	81.98	ND	ND
2009:Q3	94.91	ND	ND
2009:Q4	100.00	100.00	100.00
2010:Q1	105.78	105.78	105.78
2010:Q2	101.72	112.33	101.72
Forecast
2010:Q3	103.20	115.94	82.71
2010:Q4	106.85	119.68	87.38
2011:Q1	111.86	123.55	93.23
2011:Q2	117.07	127.51	99.32
2011:Q3	122.55	131.60	105.69
2011:Q4	128.25	135.82	112.28
2012:Q1	130.76	137.92	116.10
2012:Q2	133.32	140.06	119.92
2012:Q3	135.93	142.23	123.76
2012:Q4	138.59	144.44	127.57
2013:Q1	140.96	146.53	130.98
2013:Q2	143.36	148.66	134.28
2013:Q3	145.81	150.81	137.46
2013:Q4	148.30	153.00	140.51
2014:Q1	150.83	155.22	143.43
2014:Q2	153.40	157.47	146.29
2014:Q3	156.02	159.75	149.15
2014:Q4	158.68	162.07	152.03
2015:Q1	161.39	164.42	154.96
2015:Q2	164.14	166.80	157.96
2015:Q3	166.94	169.22	161.02
2015:Q4	169.79	171.67	164.16
2016:Q1	172.68	174.33	167.38
2016:Q2	175.63	177.04	170.67
2016:Q3	178.63	179.78	174.05
2016:Q4	181.67	182.57	177.50

Middle-left panel
BBB-rated Corporate Bond Rate

Percent
Period	Baseline	April GB	European debt crisis
2008:Q1	6.54	ND	ND
2008:Q2	6.84	ND	ND
2008:Q3	7.19	ND	ND
2008:Q4	9.39	ND	ND
2009:Q1	8.96	ND	ND
2009:Q2	8.15	ND	ND
2009:Q3	6.76	ND	ND
2009:Q4	6.13	6.13	6.13
2010:Q1	5.78	5.78	5.78
2010:Q2	5.60	5.75	5.60
Forecast
2010:Q3	5.65	5.75	6.60
2010:Q4	5.70	5.80	6.61
2011:Q1	5.70	5.80	6.56
2011:Q2	5.75	5.85	6.56
2011:Q3	5.85	5.85	6.62
2011:Q4	5.95	5.95	6.68
2012:Q1	5.90	6.00	6.59
2012:Q2	5.85	6.03	6.50
2012:Q3	5.85	6.08	6.47
2012:Q4	5.87	6.09	6.46
2013:Q1	5.94	6.14	6.49
2013:Q2	5.99	6.16	6.53
2013:Q3	6.03	6.19	6.56
2013:Q4	6.06	6.20	6.60
2014:Q1	6.10	6.21	6.64
2014:Q2	6.13	6.22	6.69
2014:Q3	6.17	6.24	6.74
2014:Q4	6.20	6.25	6.79
2015:Q1	6.22	6.27	6.81
2015:Q2	6.25	6.28	6.85
2015:Q3	6.28	6.30	6.88
2015:Q4	6.30	6.32	6.91
2016:Q1	6.33	6.34	6.94
2016:Q2	6.36	6.36	6.96
2016:Q3	6.38	6.38	6.98
2016:Q4	6.40	6.40	6.99

Middle-right panel
Unemployment Rate

Percent
Period	Baseline	April GB	European debt crisis
2008:Q1	4.95	ND	ND
2008:Q2	5.31	ND	ND
2008:Q3	6.03	ND	ND
2008:Q4	6.94	ND	ND
2009:Q1	8.21	ND	ND
2009:Q2	9.28	ND	ND
2009:Q3	9.67	9.67	9.67
2009:Q4	10.05	10.03	10.05
2010:Q1	9.71	9.71	9.71
2010:Q2	9.76	9.54	9.76
Forecast
2010:Q3	9.68	9.50	9.95
2010:Q4	9.48	9.30	10.21
2011:Q1	9.31	8.91	10.55
2011:Q2	9.11	8.71	10.83
2011:Q3	8.89	8.48	11.01
2011:Q4	8.65	8.24	11.05
2012:Q1	8.38	7.97	10.96
2012:Q2	8.03	7.61	10.69
2012:Q3	7.60	7.19	10.25
2012:Q4	7.12	6.74	9.70
2013:Q1	6.69	6.34	9.13
2013:Q2	6.34	6.02	8.61
2013:Q3	6.05	5.77	8.14
2013:Q4	5.82	5.59	7.71
2014:Q1	5.64	5.46	7.33
2014:Q2	5.49	5.37	7.00
2014:Q3	5.36	5.30	6.70
2014:Q4	5.24	5.24	6.43
2015:Q1	5.17	5.19	6.22
2015:Q2	5.13	5.16	6.05
2015:Q3	5.10	5.13	5.91
2015:Q4	5.08	5.11	5.79
2016:Q1	5.08	5.10	5.69
2016:Q2	5.07	5.10	5.60
2016:Q3	5.07	5.10	5.52
2016:Q4	5.07	5.10	5.44

Bottom-left panel
Core PCE Inflation (Four-quarter)

Percent
Period	Baseline	April GB	European debt crisis
2008:Q1	2.38	ND	ND
2008:Q2	2.55	ND	ND
2008:Q3	2.62	ND	ND
2008:Q4	2.04	ND	ND
2009:Q1	1.73	ND	ND
2009:Q2	1.62	ND	ND
2009:Q3	1.28	ND	ND
2009:Q4	1.52	1.52	1.52
2010:Q1	1.38	1.37	1.38
2010:Q2	1.11	1.09	1.11
Forecast
2010:Q3	1.02	1.05	0.74
2010:Q4	0.78	0.86	0.13
2011:Q1	0.84	0.97	-0.19
2011:Q2	0.82	0.97	-0.57
2011:Q3	0.83	0.96	-0.61
2011:Q4	0.84	0.95	-0.50
2012:Q1	0.85	0.95	-0.34
2012:Q2	0.88	0.97	-0.16
2012:Q3	0.91	1.01	0.04
2012:Q4	0.95	1.06	0.24
2013:Q1	1.00	1.11	0.44
2013:Q2	1.06	1.17	0.65
2013:Q3	1.12	1.23	0.85
2013:Q4	1.19	1.30	1.05
2014:Q1	1.26	1.36	1.24
2014:Q2	1.33	1.42	1.42
2014:Q3	1.39	1.48	1.58
2014:Q4	1.45	1.53	1.74
2015:Q1	1.51	1.58	1.88
2015:Q2	1.56	1.62	2.00
2015:Q3	1.61	1.66	2.11
2015:Q4	1.65	1.70	2.21
2016:Q1	1.69	1.73	2.28
2016:Q2	1.73	1.76	2.35
2016:Q3	1.76	1.79	2.39
2016:Q4	1.78	1.81	2.43

Bottom-right panel
Federal Funds Rate

Percent
Period	Baseline	April GB	European debt crisis
2008:Q1	3.18	ND	ND
2008:Q2	2.09	ND	ND
2008:Q3	1.94	ND	ND
2008:Q4	0.51	ND	ND
2009:Q1	0.18	ND	ND
2009:Q2	0.18	ND	ND
2009:Q3	0.16	ND	ND
2009:Q4	0.12	0.12	0.12
2010:Q1	0.13	0.14	0.13
2010:Q2	0.13	0.12	0.13
Forecast
2010:Q3	0.12	0.12	0.13
2010:Q4	0.12	0.12	0.13
2011:Q1	0.12	0.12	0.13
2011:Q2	0.12	0.12	0.13
2011:Q3	0.12	0.12	0.13
2011:Q4	0.12	0.12	0.13
2012:Q1	0.13	0.38	0.13
2012:Q2	0.13	0.64	0.13
2012:Q3	0.38	0.98	0.13
2012:Q4	0.82	1.38	0.13
2013:Q1	1.35	1.88	0.13
2013:Q2	1.81	2.30	0.13
2013:Q3	2.21	2.66	0.13
2013:Q4	2.54	2.95	0.25
2014:Q1	2.83	3.17	0.81
2014:Q2	3.09	3.35	1.29
2014:Q3	3.32	3.50	1.73
2014:Q4	3.52	3.64	2.14
2015:Q1	3.66	3.74	2.49
2015:Q2	3.76	3.82	2.81
2015:Q3	3.85	3.90	3.10
2015:Q4	3.93	3.96	3.36
2016:Q1	3.99	4.02	3.59
2016:Q2	4.04	4.06	3.79
2016:Q3	4.09	4.10	3.96
2016:Q4	4.13	4.13	4.12

Exhibit 16
Valuations and Leverage

Top-left panel
Far-term Forward Spreads*

Percent
Date	High-yield	BBB
2 January 2001	5.56	2.65
3 January 2001	5.50	2.62
4 January 2001	5.41	2.59
5 January 2001	5.45	2.61
8 January 2001	5.20	2.55
9 January 2001	5.37	2.56
10 January 2001	5.27	2.55
11 January 2001	5.11	2.48
12 January 2001	4.98	2.49
15 January 2001	ND	ND
16 January 2001	4.96	2.47
17 January 2001	4.80	2.41
18 January 2001	4.96	2.42
19 January 2001	4.83	2.37
22 January 2001	4.65	2.37
23 January 2001	4.63	2.34
24 January 2001	4.65	2.33
25 January 2001	4.64	2.34
26 January 2001	4.63	2.30
29 January 2001	4.60	2.28
30 January 2001	4.62	2.22
31 January 2001	4.49	2.21
1 February 2001	4.70	2.28
2 February 2001	4.54	2.26
5 February 2001	4.53	2.29
6 February 2001	4.53	2.32
7 February 2001	4.55	2.29
8 February 2001	4.56	2.30
9 February 2001	4.56	2.29
12 February 2001	4.45	2.27
13 February 2001	4.42	2.24
14 February 2001	4.48	2.30
15 February 2001	4.36	2.30
16 February 2001	4.38	2.23
19 February 2001	ND	ND
20 February 2001	4.44	2.28
21 February 2001	4.39	2.29
22 February 2001	4.37	2.30
23 February 2001	4.35	2.31
26 February 2001	4.41	2.33
27 February 2001	4.55	2.37
28 February 2001	4.33	2.34
1 March 2001	4.40	2.33
2 March 2001	4.29	2.28
5 March 2001	4.36	2.33
6 March 2001	4.31	2.32
7 March 2001	4.35	2.33
8 March 2001	4.33	2.32
9 March 2001	4.36	2.34
12 March 2001	4.45	2.34
13 March 2001	4.50	2.38
14 March 2001	4.63	2.37
15 March 2001	4.57	2.34
16 March 2001	4.53	2.34
19 March 2001	4.61	2.34
20 March 2001	4.66	2.33
21 March 2001	4.74	2.31
22 March 2001	4.89	2.30
23 March 2001	4.79	2.31
26 March 2001	4.67	2.27
27 March 2001	4.56	2.25
28 March 2001	4.62	2.26
29 March 2001	4.59	2.25
30 March 2001	4.70	2.23
2 April 2001	4.40	2.14
3 April 2001	4.61	2.14
4 April 2001	4.67	2.16
5 April 2001	4.63	2.18
6 April 2001	4.74	2.22
9 April 2001	4.76	2.23
10 April 2001	4.58	2.18
11 April 2001	4.48	2.25
12 April 2001	4.38	2.24
13 April 2001	ND	ND
16 April 2001	4.37	2.21
17 April 2001	4.24	2.22
18 April 2001	4.21	2.23
19 April 2001	4.08	2.19
20 April 2001	4.04	2.19
23 April 2001	4.12	2.19
24 April 2001	4.05	2.15
25 April 2001	4.08	2.14
26 April 2001	4.27	2.14
27 April 2001	4.16	2.11
30 April 2001	3.96	2.05
1 May 2001	3.94	2.04
2 May 2001	3.83	2.05
3 May 2001	3.94	2.05
4 May 2001	3.93	2.03
7 May 2001	3.90	2.04
8 May 2001	3.85	2.01
9 May 2001	3.84	2.02
10 May 2001	3.85	2.01
11 May 2001	3.82	2.02
14 May 2001	3.81	1.98
15 May 2001	3.69	1.99
16 May 2001	3.62	1.94
17 May 2001	3.94	1.96
18 May 2001	3.97	1.97
21 May 2001	3.98	1.97
22 May 2001	3.88	1.94
23 May 2001	3.90	1.93
24 May 2001	3.85	1.92
25 May 2001	3.84	1.92
28 May 2001	ND	ND
29 May 2001	3.86	1.90
30 May 2001	3.98	1.91
31 May 2001	3.99	1.88
1 June 2001	3.82	1.90
4 June 2001	4.02	1.90
5 June 2001	3.97	1.87
6 June 2001	3.89	1.89
7 June 2001	3.90	1.87
8 June 2001	3.97	1.91
11 June 2001	4.01	1.91
12 June 2001	4.00	1.92
13 June 2001	3.90	1.92
14 June 2001	3.93	1.89
15 June 2001	3.96	1.87
18 June 2001	3.95	1.90
19 June 2001	3.97	1.93
20 June 2001	4.03	1.96
21 June 2001	4.02	1.98
22 June 2001	4.08	1.99
25 June 2001	4.07	1.98
26 June 2001	3.90	1.97
27 June 2001	4.03	1.99
28 June 2001	3.91	1.99
29 June 2001	3.85	1.94
2 July 2001	4.02	1.96
3 July 2001	4.18	1.95
4 July 2001	ND	ND
5 July 2001	3.96	1.94
6 July 2001	4.01	1.95
9 July 2001	4.01	1.98
10 July 2001	3.88	1.99
11 July 2001	3.87	1.96
12 July 2001	3.85	1.99
13 July 2001	3.89	2.00
16 July 2001	4.05	2.01
17 July 2001	3.84	2.03
18 July 2001	4.05	2.06
19 July 2001	4.03	2.06
20 July 2001	4.06	2.04
23 July 2001	4.03	2.04
24 July 2001	3.96	2.03
25 July 2001	3.93	2.01
26 July 2001	3.96	1.99
27 July 2001	4.09	1.98
30 July 2001	4.04	1.97
31 July 2001	3.62	1.92
1 August 2001	3.75	1.91
2 August 2001	3.56	1.89
3 August 2001	3.47	1.90
6 August 2001	3.57	1.88
7 August 2001	3.47	1.88
8 August 2001	3.50	1.89
9 August 2001	3.46	1.89
10 August 2001	3.61	1.88
13 August 2001	3.67	1.88
14 August 2001	3.64	1.87
15 August 2001	3.69	1.89
16 August 2001	3.65	1.90
17 August 2001	3.87	1.93
20 August 2001	3.75	1.97
21 August 2001	3.73	1.99
22 August 2001	3.72	2.01
23 August 2001	3.70	2.00
24 August 2001	3.68	1.99
27 August 2001	3.64	1.98
28 August 2001	3.66	1.98
29 August 2001	3.69	1.98
30 August 2001	3.74	1.98
31 August 2001	3.56	1.97
3 September 2001	ND	ND
4 September 2001	3.52	1.96
5 September 2001	3.54	1.96
6 September 2001	3.56	1.95
7 September 2001	3.61	1.99
10 September 2001	3.51	1.98
11 September 2001	ND	ND
12 September 2001	ND	ND
13 September 2001	ND	ND
14 September 2001	ND	ND
17 September 2001	3.60	2.02
18 September 2001	3.25	2.00
19 September 2001	3.07	1.92
20 September 2001	2.94	1.91
21 September 2001	2.84	1.98
24 September 2001	3.06	1.99
25 September 2001	3.21	2.00
26 September 2001	3.46	2.00
27 September 2001	3.59	2.06
28 September 2001	3.84	2.02
1 October 2001	4.74	2.05
2 October 2001	4.22	2.02
3 October 2001	4.17	1.99
4 October 2001	4.26	2.00
5 October 2001	3.89	1.96
8 October 2001	ND	ND
9 October 2001	3.63	1.95
10 October 2001	3.64	1.97
11 October 2001	3.51	1.94
12 October 2001	3.35	1.92
15 October 2001	3.12	1.93
16 October 2001	3.36	1.92
17 October 2001	3.36	1.92
18 October 2001	3.35	1.92
19 October 2001	3.26	1.92
22 October 2001	3.21	1.95
23 October 2001	3.14	1.95
24 October 2001	3.26	2.00
25 October 2001	3.17	2.02
26 October 2001	3.15	2.01
29 October 2001	3.15	2.01
30 October 2001	3.16	2.06
31 October 2001	3.17	2.09
1 November 2001	3.26	2.07
2 November 2001	3.13	2.08
5 November 2001	3.33	2.10
6 November 2001	3.22	2.10
7 November 2001	3.29	2.14
8 November 2001	3.22	2.11
9 November 2001	3.21	2.07
12 November 2001	ND	ND
13 November 2001	3.18	2.10
14 November 2001	3.13	2.08
15 November 2001	2.99	2.04
16 November 2001	2.90	1.99
19 November 2001	2.99	1.97
20 November 2001	3.21	1.93
21 November 2001	3.04	1.87
22 November 2001	ND	ND
23 November 2001	2.74	1.80
26 November 2001	2.73	1.72
27 November 2001	2.68	1.66
28 November 2001	2.70	1.71
29 November 2001	2.68	1.64
30 November 2001	2.85	1.70
3 December 2001	2.92	1.77
4 December 2001	3.00	1.77
5 December 2001	2.96	1.79
6 December 2001	2.82	1.70
7 December 2001	2.57	1.65
10 December 2001	2.63	1.65
11 December 2001	2.64	1.66
12 December 2001	2.77	1.65
13 December 2001	2.74	1.75
14 December 2001	2.74	1.69
17 December 2001	2.73	1.76
18 December 2001	2.86	1.71
19 December 2001	2.97	1.71
20 December 2001	3.00	1.70
21 December 2001	2.95	1.70
24 December 2001	2.95	1.69
25 December 2001	ND	ND
26 December 2001	2.95	1.70
27 December 2001	3.01	1.67
28 December 2001	2.93	1.63
31 December 2001	3.01	1.52
1 January 2002	ND	ND
2 January 2002	2.90	1.46
3 January 2002	2.81	1.46
4 January 2002	2.70	1.42
7 January 2002	2.82	1.50
8 January 2002	2.95	1.49
9 January 2002	2.93	1.51
10 January 2002	3.08	1.55
11 January 2002	3.02	1.56
14 January 2002	2.98	1.53
15 January 2002	3.08	1.59
16 January 2002	3.15	1.59
17 January 2002	3.04	1.60
18 January 2002	3.17	1.64
21 January 2002	ND	ND
22 January 2002	3.12	1.57
23 January 2002	3.02	1.51
24 January 2002	3.08	1.53
25 January 2002	3.09	1.54
28 January 2002	3.21	1.54
29 January 2002	3.24	1.54
30 January 2002	3.20	1.58
31 January 2002	3.11	1.55
1 February 2002	3.12	1.56
4 February 2002	3.42	1.65
5 February 2002	3.20	1.73
6 February 2002	3.13	1.67
7 February 2002	3.11	1.66
8 February 2002	3.18	1.60
11 February 2002	3.12	1.55
12 February 2002	3.06	1.53
13 February 2002	3.04	1.52
14 February 2002	3.20	1.58
15 February 2002	3.26	1.60
18 February 2002	ND	ND
19 February 2002	3.29	1.63
20 February 2002	3.34	1.67
21 February 2002	3.32	1.71
22 February 2002	3.30	1.72
25 February 2002	3.36	1.69
26 February 2002	3.35	1.63
27 February 2002	3.30	1.59
28 February 2002	3.10	1.61
1 March 2002	3.02	1.62
4 March 2002	2.98	1.60
5 March 2002	3.04	1.62
6 March 2002	2.89	1.57
7 March 2002	2.90	1.53
8 March 2002	2.72	1.52
11 March 2002	2.68	1.53
12 March 2002	2.64	1.54
13 March 2002	2.65	1.56
14 March 2002	2.52	1.54
15 March 2002	2.61	1.62
18 March 2002	2.66	1.65
19 March 2002	2.64	1.63
20 March 2002	2.53	1.61
21 March 2002	2.63	1.62
22 March 2002	2.65	1.61
25 March 2002	2.70	1.66
26 March 2002	2.76	1.67
27 March 2002	2.75	1.68
28 March 2002	2.70	1.65
29 March 2002	ND	ND
1 April 2002	2.78	1.68
2 April 2002	2.74	1.69
3 April 2002	2.81	1.70
4 April 2002	2.86	1.71
5 April 2002	2.86	1.70
8 April 2002	2.86	1.70
9 April 2002	2.89	1.71
10 April 2002	2.79	1.70
11 April 2002	2.81	1.73
12 April 2002	2.91	1.72
15 April 2002	2.91	1.72
16 April 2002	3.01	1.72
17 April 2002	2.90	1.65
18 April 2002	2.83	1.66
19 April 2002	2.81	1.66
22 April 2002	2.84	1.73
23 April 2002	2.89	1.73
24 April 2002	2.79	1.80
25 April 2002	2.86	1.84
26 April 2002	2.94	1.82
29 April 2002	3.05	1.86
30 April 2002	3.07	1.81
1 May 2002	3.02	2.10
2 May 2002	3.10	1.95
3 May 2002	3.11	1.96
6 May 2002	3.03	1.94
7 May 2002	2.97	1.94
8 May 2002	3.02	1.86
9 May 2002	3.10	1.86
10 May 2002	3.16	1.91
13 May 2002	3.17	1.84
14 May 2002	2.97	1.83
15 May 2002	2.93	1.82
16 May 2002	3.01	1.85
17 May 2002	2.94	1.84
20 May 2002	3.12	1.90
21 May 2002	3.25	1.89
22 May 2002	3.29	1.84
23 May 2002	3.15	1.90
24 May 2002	3.21	1.90
27 May 2002	ND	ND
28 May 2002	3.19	1.84
29 May 2002	3.22	1.79
30 May 2002	3.26	1.85
31 May 2002	3.62	1.56
3 June 2002	3.65	1.57
4 June 2002	3.64	1.59
5 June 2002	3.43	1.57
6 June 2002	3.51	1.62
7 June 2002	3.54	1.60
10 June 2002	3.74	1.63
11 June 2002	3.74	1.67
12 June 2002	3.79	1.68
13 June 2002	3.77	1.69
14 June 2002	3.92	1.76
17 June 2002	3.72	1.72
18 June 2002	3.81	1.74
19 June 2002	3.95	1.79
20 June 2002	3.94	1.81
21 June 2002	4.55	1.83
24 June 2002	4.12	1.87
25 June 2002	4.25	1.82
26 June 2002	4.54	2.02
27 June 2002	4.88	1.99
28 June 2002	4.83	2.00
1 July 2002	3.68	2.03
2 July 2002	3.90	2.11
3 July 2002	3.88	2.10
4 July 2002	ND	ND
5 July 2002	3.75	2.07
8 July 2002	3.81	2.03
9 July 2002	3.77	1.97
10 July 2002	3.94	1.97
11 July 2002	4.07	2.01
12 July 2002	4.06	1.99
15 July 2002	4.07	2.00
16 July 2002	4.02	1.97
17 July 2002	3.94	1.95
18 July 2002	3.96	1.98
19 July 2002	4.00	2.04
22 July 2002	4.17	2.07
23 July 2002	4.35	2.13
24 July 2002	4.42	2.23
25 July 2002	4.32	2.23
26 July 2002	4.32	2.21
29 July 2002	4.27	2.23
30 July 2002	4.32	2.23
31 July 2002	4.38	2.09
1 August 2002	4.21	1.99
2 August 2002	4.50	2.07
5 August 2002	4.52	2.09
6 August 2002	4.53	2.07
7 August 2002	4.49	2.02
8 August 2002	4.60	2.01
9 August 2002	4.73	2.08
12 August 2002	4.85	2.13
13 August 2002	4.92	2.14
14 August 2002	5.05	2.23
15 August 2002	5.01	2.18
16 August 2002	4.78	2.14
19 August 2002	4.89	2.10
20 August 2002	4.69	2.04
21 August 2002	4.72	2.00
22 August 2002	4.45	1.93
23 August 2002	4.41	1.92
26 August 2002	4.26	1.93
27 August 2002	4.20	1.87
28 August 2002	4.23	1.89
29 August 2002	4.24	1.92
30 August 2002	4.31	1.92
2 September 2002	ND	ND
3 September 2002	4.60	2.01
4 September 2002	4.55	2.01
5 September 2002	4.60	2.03
6 September 2002	4.61	1.99
9 September 2002	4.72	2.03
10 September 2002	4.71	2.02
11 September 2002	4.70	2.06
12 September 2002	4.19	2.11
13 September 2002	ND	2.12
16 September 2002	4.79	2.13
17 September 2002	4.71	2.14
18 September 2002	4.97	2.10
19 September 2002	5.12	2.10
20 September 2002	5.12	2.09
23 September 2002	4.90	2.13
24 September 2002	4.91	2.16
25 September 2002	4.91	2.12
26 September 2002	4.98	2.19
27 September 2002	5.09	2.19
30 September 2002	5.17	2.11
1 October 2002	5.18	2.11
2 October 2002	5.07	2.10
3 October 2002	5.07	2.12
4 October 2002	5.26	2.12
7 October 2002	5.29	2.20
8 October 2002	5.47	2.22
9 October 2002	5.63	2.34
10 October 2002	5.62	2.33
11 October 2002	5.54	2.27
14 October 2002	ND	ND
15 October 2002	5.34	2.17
16 October 2002	5.23	2.18
17 October 2002	5.12	2.18
18 October 2002	5.12	2.18
21 October 2002	5.10	2.24
22 October 2002	5.08	2.16
23 October 2002	5.03	2.17
24 October 2002	5.03	2.14
25 October 2002	5.02	2.16
28 October 2002	4.90	2.08
29 October 2002	4.98	2.10
30 October 2002	4.89	2.06
31 October 2002	4.91	2.01
1 November 2002	4.90	1.98
4 November 2002	4.89	1.94
5 November 2002	4.75	1.88
6 November 2002	4.68	1.90
7 November 2002	4.91	1.98
8 November 2002	5.09	2.01
11 November 2002	ND	ND
12 November 2002	4.86	2.03
13 November 2002	4.89	2.04
14 November 2002	4.62	1.94
15 November 2002	4.59	1.85
18 November 2002	4.71	1.81
19 November 2002	4.74	1.83
20 November 2002	4.64	1.80
21 November 2002	4.62	1.74
22 November 2002	4.66	1.68
25 November 2002	4.24	1.71
26 November 2002	4.34	1.74
27 November 2002	4.12	1.60
28 November 2002	ND	ND
29 November 2002	4.28	1.65
2 December 2002	4.18	1.55
3 December 2002	4.04	1.59
4 December 2002	5.61	1.64
5 December 2002	5.65	1.63
6 December 2002	5.60	1.65
9 December 2002	4.37	1.65
10 December 2002	4.40	1.68
11 December 2002	4.50	1.67
12 December 2002	4.47	1.65
13 December 2002	4.37	1.63
16 December 2002	4.17	1.54
17 December 2002	4.22	1.50
18 December 2002	4.25	1.48
19 December 2002	4.33	1.48
20 December 2002	4.36	1.48
23 December 2002	4.34	1.49
24 December 2002	4.39	1.53
25 December 2002	ND	ND
26 December 2002	4.40	1.55
27 December 2002	4.48	1.56
30 December 2002	4.41	1.52
31 December 2002	4.18	1.53
1 January 2003	ND	ND
2 January 2003	3.91	1.46
3 January 2003	4.00	1.47
6 January 2003	3.78	1.44
7 January 2003	3.77	1.41
8 January 2003	3.74	1.47
9 January 2003	3.57	1.42
10 January 2003	3.52	1.43
13 January 2003	3.50	1.37
14 January 2003	3.52	1.42
15 January 2003	3.58	1.46
16 January 2003	3.65	1.52
17 January 2003	3.62	1.56
20 January 2003	ND	ND
21 January 2003	3.57	1.55
22 January 2003	3.60	1.55
23 January 2003	3.58	1.51
24 January 2003	3.64	1.56
27 January 2003	3.74	1.57
28 January 2003	3.74	1.56
29 January 2003	3.70	1.53
30 January 2003	3.73	1.56
31 January 2003	3.78	1.59
3 February 2003	3.87	1.55
4 February 2003	3.86	1.57
5 February 2003	3.80	1.55
6 February 2003	3.93	1.58
7 February 2003	3.92	1.61
10 February 2003	3.93	1.57
11 February 2003	3.87	1.58
12 February 2003	3.97	1.59
13 February 2003	4.09	1.63
14 February 2003	3.97	1.58
17 February 2003	ND	ND
18 February 2003	4.04	1.60
19 February 2003	4.01	1.61
20 February 2003	3.89	1.59
21 February 2003	3.81	1.58
24 February 2003	3.82	1.57
25 February 2003	3.79	1.61
26 February 2003	3.86	1.62
27 February 2003	3.88	1.62
28 February 2003	3.90	1.61
3 March 2003	3.96	1.58
4 March 2003	3.97	1.60
5 March 2003	3.98	1.64
6 March 2003	3.97	1.62
7 March 2003	3.98	1.69
10 March 2003	3.95	1.69
11 March 2003	3.98	1.73
12 March 2003	4.09	1.79
13 March 2003	4.00	1.75
14 March 2003	3.98	1.73
17 March 2003	3.86	1.70
18 March 2003	3.81	1.65
19 March 2003	3.70	1.63
20 March 2003	3.60	1.63
21 March 2003	3.52	1.57
24 March 2003	3.59	1.60
25 March 2003	3.54	1.61
26 March 2003	3.48	1.55
27 March 2003	3.47	1.55
28 March 2003	3.43	1.52
31 March 2003	3.35	1.52
1 April 2003	3.31	1.48
2 April 2003	3.22	1.42
3 April 2003	3.17	1.42
4 April 2003	3.07	1.45
7 April 2003	3.05	1.43
8 April 2003	3.09	1.50
9 April 2003	3.15	1.52
10 April 2003	3.11	1.50
11 April 2003	3.09	1.46
14 April 2003	3.06	1.47
15 April 2003	3.08	1.46
16 April 2003	3.15	1.42
17 April 2003	3.10	1.43
18 April 2003	ND	ND
21 April 2003	3.02	1.42
22 April 2003	2.98	1.38
23 April 2003	2.92	1.34
24 April 2003	2.95	1.33
25 April 2003	2.91	1.31
28 April 2003	2.89	1.31
29 April 2003	2.84	1.35
30 April 2003	2.81	1.50
1 May 2003	2.78	1.47
2 May 2003	2.70	1.45
5 May 2003	2.72	1.46
6 May 2003	2.68	1.01
7 May 2003	2.77	1.25
8 May 2003	2.79	1.24
9 May 2003	2.89	1.31
12 May 2003	2.92	1.29
13 May 2003	2.89	1.29
14 May 2003	3.00	1.36
15 May 2003	3.04	1.38
16 May 2003	3.06	1.32
19 May 2003	3.04	1.39
20 May 2003	3.11	1.43
21 May 2003	3.21	1.47
22 May 2003	3.25	1.45
23 May 2003	3.29	1.42
26 May 2003	ND	ND
27 May 2003	3.10	1.37
28 May 2003	3.07	1.34
29 May 2003	3.14	1.38
30 May 2003	3.13	1.36
2 June 2003	3.00	1.39
3 June 2003	3.03	1.38
4 June 2003	3.06	1.42
5 June 2003	2.95	1.37
6 June 2003	2.94	1.38
9 June 2003	3.00	1.42
10 June 2003	3.09	1.44
11 June 2003	3.06	1.41
12 June 2003	3.05	1.43
13 June 2003	3.08	1.44
16 June 2003	3.02	1.37
17 June 2003	2.95	1.35
18 June 2003	2.82	1.35
19 June 2003	2.78	1.34
20 June 2003	2.71	1.34
23 June 2003	2.79	1.36
24 June 2003	2.86	1.37
25 June 2003	2.79	1.35
26 June 2003	2.74	1.41
27 June 2003	2.65	1.37
30 June 2003	2.70	1.40
1 July 2003	2.66	1.42
2 July 2003	2.66	1.40
3 July 2003	2.56	1.39
4 July 2003	ND	ND
7 July 2003	2.52	1.36
8 July 2003	2.51	1.32
9 July 2003	2.51	1.30
10 July 2003	2.51	1.30
11 July 2003	2.45	1.30
14 July 2003	2.37	1.26
15 July 2003	2.25	1.23
16 July 2003	2.24	1.23
17 July 2003	2.29	1.20
18 July 2003	2.33	1.22
21 July 2003	2.27	1.28
22 July 2003	2.18	1.18
23 July 2003	2.24	1.14
24 July 2003	2.12	1.09
25 July 2003	2.14	1.09
28 July 2003	2.17	1.11
29 July 2003	2.20	1.10
30 July 2003	2.28	1.14
31 July 2003	1.90	1.11
1 August 2003	2.03	1.09
4 August 2003	2.00	1.09
5 August 2003	1.98	1.06
6 August 2003	2.26	1.18
7 August 2003	2.33	1.21
8 August 2003	2.23	1.18
11 August 2003	2.14	1.12
12 August 2003	2.15	1.14
13 August 2003	1.98	1.05
14 August 2003	2.10	1.08
15 August 2003	2.08	1.03
18 August 2003	2.13	1.09
19 August 2003	2.21	1.13
20 August 2003	2.10	1.07
21 August 2003	2.09	1.05
22 August 2003	2.14	1.06
25 August 2003	2.09	1.06
26 August 2003	2.16	1.10
27 August 2003	2.10	1.08
28 August 2003	2.17	1.12
29 August 2003	2.13	1.12
1 September 2003	ND	ND
2 September 2003	1.92	0.99
3 September 2003	1.96	0.99
4 September 2003	1.95	1.02
5 September 2003	2.06	1.07
8 September 2003	1.98	1.05
9 September 2003	1.97	1.07
10 September 2003	2.00	1.08
11 September 2003	1.97	1.07
12 September 2003	1.98	1.06
15 September 2003	1.89	1.01
16 September 2003	1.85	1.01
17 September 2003	1.96	1.01
18 September 2003	1.97	1.01
19 September 2003	2.01	1.01
22 September 2003	1.92	1.03
23 September 2003	1.96	1.03
24 September 2003	2.05	1.06
25 September 2003	2.07	1.06
26 September 2003	2.12	1.08
29 September 2003	2.06	1.08
30 September 2003	2.13	1.10
1 October 2003	2.10	1.09
2 October 2003	2.01	1.07
3 October 2003	1.85	1.03
6 October 2003	1.89	1.03
7 October 2003	1.76	1.01
8 October 2003	1.70	0.97
9 October 2003	1.64	0.95
10 October 2003	1.68	0.97
13 October 2003	ND	ND
14 October 2003	1.55	0.91
15 October 2003	1.51	0.89
16 October 2003	1.54	0.84
17 October 2003	1.61	0.87
20 October 2003	1.61	0.88
21 October 2003	1.63	0.91
22 October 2003	1.73	0.99
23 October 2003	1.68	0.95
24 October 2003	1.79	0.97
27 October 2003	1.76	0.93
28 October 2003	1.78	0.96
29 October 2003	1.72	0.95
30 October 2003	1.72	0.96
31 October 2003	1.74	0.97
3 November 2003	1.71	0.93
4 November 2003	1.74	0.96
5 November 2003	1.72	0.96
6 November 2003	1.64	0.95
7 November 2003	1.66	0.95
10 November 2003	1.66	0.95
11 November 2003	ND	ND
12 November 2003	1.72	0.92
13 November 2003	1.78	0.91
14 November 2003	1.82	0.91
17 November 2003	1.78	0.90
18 November 2003	1.83	0.90
19 November 2003	1.78	0.92
20 November 2003	1.84	0.93
21 November 2003	1.88	0.95
24 November 2003	1.80	0.94
25 November 2003	1.81	0.95
26 November 2003	1.77	0.93
27 November 2003	ND	ND
28 November 2003	1.70	0.93
1 December 2003	1.65	0.92
2 December 2003	1.59	0.91
3 December 2003	1.58	0.88
4 December 2003	1.56	0.88
5 December 2003	1.63	0.92
8 December 2003	1.54	0.93
9 December 2003	1.52	0.94
10 December 2003	1.51	0.95
11 December 2003	1.51	0.93
12 December 2003	1.55	0.94
15 December 2003	1.50	0.93
16 December 2003	1.53	0.93
17 December 2003	1.59	0.94
18 December 2003	1.64	0.96
19 December 2003	1.63	0.93
22 December 2003	1.53	0.94
23 December 2003	1.53	0.93
24 December 2003	1.58	0.96
25 December 2003	ND	ND
26 December 2003	1.60	0.94
29 December 2003	1.51	0.90
30 December 2003	1.45	0.90
31 December 2003	1.40	0.91
1 January 2004	ND	ND
2 January 2004	1.31	0.85
5 January 2004	1.22	0.80
6 January 2004	1.25	0.83
7 January 2004	1.25	0.84
8 January 2004	1.21	0.81
9 January 2004	1.27	0.87
12 January 2004	1.27	0.84
13 January 2004	1.28	0.87
14 January 2004	1.33	0.87
15 January 2004	1.39	0.88
16 January 2004	1.36	0.88
19 January 2004	ND	ND
20 January 2004	1.28	0.90
21 January 2004	1.26	0.89
22 January 2004	1.31	0.89
23 January 2004	1.24	0.89
26 January 2004	1.21	0.90
27 January 2004	1.24	0.87
28 January 2004	1.23	0.88
29 January 2004	1.27	0.90
30 January 2004	1.36	0.93
2 February 2004	1.38	0.94
3 February 2004	1.45	0.94
4 February 2004	1.45	0.95
5 February 2004	1.51	0.97
6 February 2004	1.56	0.96
9 February 2004	1.49	0.94
10 February 2004	1.49	0.94
11 February 2004	1.51	0.94
12 February 2004	1.43	0.92
13 February 2004	1.45	0.94
16 February 2004	ND	ND
17 February 2004	1.45	0.94
18 February 2004	1.48	0.92
19 February 2004	1.50	0.94
20 February 2004	1.48	0.94
23 February 2004	1.54	0.96
24 February 2004	1.58	0.98
25 February 2004	1.57	0.99
26 February 2004	1.56	0.99
27 February 2004	1.67	1.08
1 March 2004	1.59	0.98
2 March 2004	1.55	0.98
3 March 2004	1.54	0.97
4 March 2004	1.56	0.99
5 March 2004	1.65	1.03
8 March 2004	1.66	1.03
9 March 2004	1.71	1.03
10 March 2004	1.73	1.05
11 March 2004	1.75	1.07
12 March 2004	1.74	1.07
15 March 2004	1.76	1.06
16 March 2004	1.84	1.10
17 March 2004	1.86	1.09
18 March 2004	1.82	1.09
19 March 2004	1.79	1.10
22 March 2004	1.82	1.12
23 March 2004	1.87	1.13
24 March 2004	1.88	1.15
25 March 2004	1.83	1.12
26 March 2004	1.75	1.09
29 March 2004	1.70	1.05
30 March 2004	1.69	1.03
31 March 2004	1.71	1.05
1 April 2004	1.69	1.04
2 April 2004	1.61	0.98
5 April 2004	1.50	0.97
6 April 2004	1.54	0.96
7 April 2004	1.49	0.93
8 April 2004	1.50	0.95
9 April 2004	ND	ND
12 April 2004	1.46	0.91
13 April 2004	1.42	0.89
14 April 2004	1.41	0.86
15 April 2004	1.43	0.90
16 April 2004	1.40	0.91
19 April 2004	1.43	0.92
20 April 2004	1.42	0.92
21 April 2004	1.51	0.95
22 April 2004	1.54	0.96
23 April 2004	1.52	0.95
26 April 2004	1.55	0.95
27 April 2004	1.56	0.96
28 April 2004	1.56	0.97
29 April 2004	1.55	0.98
30 April 2004	1.58	0.97
3 May 2004	1.62	0.97
4 May 2004	1.60	0.99
5 May 2004	1.60	0.99
6 May 2004	1.62	1.00
7 May 2004	1.69	1.00
10 May 2004	1.81	1.02
11 May 2004	1.82	1.02
12 May 2004	1.80	1.03
13 May 2004	1.85	1.03
14 May 2004	1.90	1.04
17 May 2004	1.99	1.06
18 May 2004	1.96	1.04
19 May 2004	1.89	1.02
20 May 2004	1.95	1.03
21 May 2004	1.93	1.02
24 May 2004	1.95	1.03
25 May 2004	1.95	1.03
26 May 2004	1.95	1.03
27 May 2004	1.99	1.03
28 May 2004	1.97	1.02
31 May 2004	ND	ND
1 June 2004	1.86	0.98
2 June 2004	1.85	1.00
3 June 2004	1.89	1.02
4 June 2004	1.86	1.02
7 June 2004	1.91	1.01
8 June 2004	1.91	1.00
9 June 2004	1.88	0.99
10 June 2004	1.92	1.01
11 June 2004	ND	ND
14 June 2004	1.89	1.01
15 June 2004	2.07	1.06
16 June 2004	2.02	1.05
17 June 2004	2.02	1.05
18 June 2004	2.00	1.05
21 June 2004	1.98	1.06
22 June 2004	1.96	1.05
23 June 2004	1.98	1.06
24 June 2004	2.01	1.07
25 June 2004	1.99	1.06
28 June 2004	1.95	1.05
29 June 2004	1.99	1.06
30 June 2004	2.05	1.09
1 July 2004	2.01	1.09
2 July 2004	2.07	1.08
5 July 2004	ND	ND
6 July 2004	2.05	1.10
7 July 2004	2.04	1.10
8 July 2004	2.00	1.10
9 July 2004	1.99	1.10
12 July 2004	1.99	1.09
13 July 2004	1.97	1.09
14 July 2004	1.98	1.08
15 July 2004	2.00	1.10
16 July 2004	2.03	1.09
19 July 2004	2.02	1.07
20 July 2004	1.96	1.07
21 July 2004	1.97	1.10
22 July 2004	2.00	1.04
23 July 2004	2.04	1.10
26 July 2004	2.04	1.10
27 July 2004	1.98	1.08
28 July 2004	1.97	1.08
29 July 2004	1.97	1.08
30 July 2004	2.07	1.09
2 August 2004	2.06	1.10
3 August 2004	2.15	1.11
4 August 2004	2.11	1.10
5 August 2004	2.11	1.12
6 August 2004	2.13	1.12
9 August 2004	2.12	1.09
10 August 2004	2.16	1.11
11 August 2004	2.16	1.11
12 August 2004	2.16	1.10
13 August 2004	2.19	1.10
16 August 2004	2.11	1.09
17 August 2004	2.17	1.09
18 August 2004	2.13	1.10
19 August 2004	2.06	1.06
20 August 2004	2.08	1.08
23 August 2004	2.02	1.07
24 August 2004	2.00	1.06
25 August 2004	2.02	1.07
26 August 2004	2.03	1.06
27 August 2004	2.04	1.06
30 August 2004	2.05	1.05
31 August 2004	2.05	1.01
1 September 2004	2.04	1.01
2 September 2004	1.97	1.01
3 September 2004	1.95	1.02
6 September 2004	ND	ND
7 September 2004	2.00	0.99
8 September 2004	2.01	0.99
9 September 2004	1.94	0.98
10 September 2004	1.96	0.99
13 September 2004	1.99	1.00
14 September 2004	1.97	0.99
15 September 2004	1.95	0.99
16 September 2004	2.04	0.99
17 September 2004	2.01	1.00
20 September 2004	2.03	0.97
21 September 2004	2.11	1.02
22 September 2004	2.16	1.03
23 September 2004	2.16	1.04
24 September 2004	2.17	1.04
27 September 2004	2.17	1.03
28 September 2004	2.12	1.02
29 September 2004	2.08	1.00
30 September 2004	2.03	0.97
1 October 2004	1.98	0.97
4 October 2004	1.98	0.97
5 October 2004	1.96	0.96
6 October 2004	1.93	0.96
7 October 2004	1.90	0.94
8 October 2004	1.92	0.91
11 October 2004	ND	ND
12 October 2004	1.94	0.94
13 October 2004	1.91	0.93
14 October 2004	1.95	0.93
15 October 2004	1.96	0.94
18 October 2004	1.99	0.95
19 October 2004	2.00	0.95
20 October 2004	2.07	0.99
21 October 2004	2.09	1.00
22 October 2004	2.07	0.99
25 October 2004	2.06	1.00
26 October 2004	2.03	0.98
27 October 2004	1.93	0.96
28 October 2004	1.91	0.97
29 October 2004	1.91	0.95
1 November 2004	1.88	0.93
2 November 2004	1.85	0.94
3 November 2004	1.82	0.91
4 November 2004	1.83	0.92
5 November 2004	1.73	0.85
8 November 2004	1.70	0.84
9 November 2004	1.70	0.86
10 November 2004	1.66	0.82
11 November 2004	ND	ND
12 November 2004	1.76	0.87
15 November 2004	1.76	0.84
16 November 2004	1.90	0.99
17 November 2004	1.96	1.01
18 November 2004	1.85	0.87
19 November 2004	1.79	0.84
22 November 2004	1.84	0.88
23 November 2004	1.85	0.89
24 November 2004	1.86	0.89
25 November 2004	ND	ND
26 November 2004	1.81	0.88
29 November 2004	1.73	0.86
30 November 2004	1.67	0.83
1 December 2004	1.66	0.86
2 December 2004	1.63	0.83
3 December 2004	1.70	0.83
6 December 2004	1.74	0.86
7 December 2004	1.75	0.85
8 December 2004	1.84	0.86
9 December 2004	1.76	0.84
10 December 2004	1.77	0.85
13 December 2004	1.79	0.85
14 December 2004	1.82	0.85
15 December 2004	1.86	0.87
16 December 2004	1.78	0.85
17 December 2004	1.75	0.83
20 December 2004	1.74	0.82
21 December 2004	1.76	0.83
22 December 2004	1.72	0.83
23 December 2004	1.71	0.83
24 December 2004	ND	ND
27 December 2004	1.64	0.81
28 December 2004	1.65	0.80
29 December 2004	1.62	0.80
30 December 2004	1.67	0.81
31 December 2004	1.74	0.84
3 January 2005	1.74	0.84
4 January 2005	1.70	0.81
5 January 2005	1.75	0.84
6 January 2005	1.74	0.86
7 January 2005	1.77	0.87
10 January 2005	1.82	0.90
11 January 2005	1.88	0.92
12 January 2005	1.89	0.92
13 January 2005	1.93	0.94
14 January 2005	1.95	0.95
17 January 2005	ND	ND
18 January 2005	2.04	0.96
19 January 2005	2.05	0.97
20 January 2005	2.03	0.97
21 January 2005	2.00	0.99
24 January 2005	2.03	0.96
25 January 2005	1.96	0.95
26 January 2005	1.98	0.93
27 January 2005	1.96	0.94
28 January 2005	2.00	0.95
31 January 2005	2.01	0.94
1 February 2005	2.00	0.93
2 February 2005	2.02	0.95
3 February 2005	1.96	0.95
4 February 2005	2.02	0.92
7 February 2005	2.05	0.92
8 February 2005	2.07	0.95
9 February 2005	2.05	0.93
10 February 2005	1.96	0.91
11 February 2005	1.93	0.91
14 February 2005	1.99	0.93
15 February 2005	1.90	0.90
16 February 2005	1.91	0.91
17 February 2005	1.83	0.89
18 February 2005	1.79	0.88
21 February 2005	ND	ND
22 February 2005	1.79	0.91
23 February 2005	1.78	0.89
24 February 2005	1.81	0.89
25 February 2005	1.80	0.89
28 February 2005	1.73	0.90
1 March 2005	1.72	0.89
2 March 2005	1.69	0.88
3 March 2005	1.71	0.87
4 March 2005	1.77	0.88
7 March 2005	1.81	0.92
8 March 2005	1.74	0.91
9 March 2005	1.62	0.88
10 March 2005	1.69	0.87
11 March 2005	1.67	0.89
14 March 2005	1.71	0.89
15 March 2005	1.68	0.89
16 March 2005	1.73	0.92
17 March 2005	1.82	0.95
18 March 2005	1.77	0.94
21 March 2005	1.80	0.96
22 March 2005	1.88	1.01
23 March 2005	1.92	1.01
24 March 2005	1.93	1.00
25 March 2005	ND	ND
28 March 2005	1.96	1.03
29 March 2005	2.00	1.04
30 March 2005	2.07	1.07
31 March 2005	2.15	1.07
1 April 2005	2.16	1.07
4 April 2005	2.19	1.11
5 April 2005	2.13	1.09
6 April 2005	2.08	1.05
7 April 2005	2.02	1.04
8 April 2005	2.08	1.06
11 April 2005	2.10	1.09
12 April 2005	2.15	1.09
13 April 2005	2.13	1.09
14 April 2005	2.14	1.12
15 April 2005	2.27	1.13
18 April 2005	2.31	1.15
19 April 2005	2.33	1.17
20 April 2005	2.28	1.16
21 April 2005	2.25	1.14
22 April 2005	2.29	1.14
25 April 2005	2.34	1.14
26 April 2005	2.34	1.13
27 April 2005	2.41	1.15
28 April 2005	2.46	1.16
29 April 2005	2.53	1.19
2 May 2005	2.54	1.21
3 May 2005	2.59	1.22
4 May 2005	2.49	1.22
5 May 2005	2.83	1.11
6 May 2005	2.82	1.12
9 May 2005	2.87	1.12
10 May 2005	2.90	1.15
11 May 2005	3.09	1.16
12 May 2005	2.99	1.16
13 May 2005	3.05	1.21
16 May 2005	3.25	1.19
17 May 2005	3.32	1.21
18 May 2005	3.31	1.23
19 May 2005	3.25	1.20
20 May 2005	3.21	1.19
23 May 2005	3.23	1.20
24 May 2005	3.24	1.21
25 May 2005	3.14	1.18
26 May 2005	3.07	1.15
27 May 2005	3.00	1.13
30 May 2005	ND	ND
31 May 2005	3.12	1.20
1 June 2005	3.09	1.19
2 June 2005	3.06	1.17
3 June 2005	2.98	1.16
6 June 2005	3.06	1.17
7 June 2005	3.07	1.18
8 June 2005	3.07	1.18
9 June 2005	3.13	1.22
10 June 2005	3.06	1.21
13 June 2005	3.02	1.22
14 June 2005	2.94	1.22
15 June 2005	2.92	1.20
16 June 2005	3.00	1.22
17 June 2005	3.04	1.24
20 June 2005	3.01	1.23
21 June 2005	3.02	1.25
22 June 2005	3.13	1.28
23 June 2005	3.13	1.28
24 June 2005	3.18	1.30
27 June 2005	3.20	1.30
28 June 2005	3.11	1.30
29 June 2005	3.08	1.29
30 June 2005	3.07	1.32
1 July 2005	3.00	1.31
4 July 2005	ND	ND
5 July 2005	2.96	1.29
6 July 2005	3.02	1.30
7 July 2005	3.03	1.30
8 July 2005	2.95	1.29
11 July 2005	2.95	1.29
12 July 2005	2.90	1.27
13 July 2005	2.87	1.27
14 July 2005	2.83	1.25
15 July 2005	2.85	1.26
18 July 2005	2.81	1.26
19 July 2005	2.81	1.23
20 July 2005	2.90	1.24
21 July 2005	2.78	1.23
22 July 2005	2.66	1.24
25 July 2005	2.84	1.25
26 July 2005	2.83	1.24
27 July 2005	2.80	1.23
28 July 2005	2.84	1.23
29 July 2005	2.77	1.21
1 August 2005	2.74	1.19
2 August 2005	2.72	1.19
3 August 2005	2.80	1.21
4 August 2005	2.78	1.21
5 August 2005	2.80	1.21
8 August 2005	2.82	1.24
9 August 2005	2.82	1.23
10 August 2005	2.79	1.24
11 August 2005	2.84	1.26
12 August 2005	2.91	1.29
15 August 2005	2.91	1.28
16 August 2005	2.95	1.30
17 August 2005	2.94	1.30
18 August 2005	2.95	1.29
19 August 2005	2.93	1.27
22 August 2005	2.93	1.28
23 August 2005	2.93	1.28
24 August 2005	2.94	1.25
25 August 2005	2.96	1.24
26 August 2005	2.96	1.24
29 August 2005	2.98	1.24
30 August 2005	3.02	1.26
31 August 2005	3.08	1.33
1 September 2005	3.07	1.35
2 September 2005	3.03	1.32
5 September 2005	ND	ND
6 September 2005	2.97	1.31
7 September 2005	2.94	1.28
8 September 2005	2.94	1.29
9 September 2005	2.98	1.30
12 September 2005	2.94	1.31
13 September 2005	2.93	1.32
14 September 2005	2.92	1.31
15 September 2005	2.81	1.31
16 September 2005	2.79	1.30
19 September 2005	2.84	1.33
20 September 2005	2.87	1.31
21 September 2005	2.96	1.35
22 September 2005	2.94	1.33
23 September 2005	2.90	1.33
26 September 2005	2.87	1.32
27 September 2005	2.91	1.35
28 September 2005	3.00	1.36
29 September 2005	3.00	1.38
30 September 2005	3.18	1.47
3 October 2005	2.96	1.35
4 October 2005	3.08	1.34
5 October 2005	3.12	1.37
6 October 2005	3.11	1.37
7 October 2005	3.15	1.37
10 October 2005	ND	ND
11 October 2005	3.14	1.37
12 October 2005	3.13	1.39
13 October 2005	3.12	1.39
14 October 2005	3.13	1.41
17 October 2005	3.09	1.41
18 October 2005	3.07	1.39
19 October 2005	3.10	1.40
20 October 2005	3.13	1.41
21 October 2005	3.17	1.43
24 October 2005	3.08	1.41
25 October 2005	3.03	1.40
26 October 2005	3.07	1.41
27 October 2005	3.13	1.42
28 October 2005	3.15	1.41
31 October 2005	3.15	1.41
1 November 2005	3.15	1.43
2 November 2005	3.12	1.42
3 November 2005	3.04	1.37
4 November 2005	3.03	1.39
7 November 2005	3.26	1.54
8 November 2005	3.25	1.55
9 November 2005	3.22	1.54
10 November 2005	3.28	1.54
11 November 2005	ND	ND
14 November 2005	3.30	1.54
15 November 2005	3.40	1.55
16 November 2005	3.41	1.55
17 November 2005	3.46	1.58
18 November 2005	3.43	1.40
21 November 2005	3.41	1.40
22 November 2005	3.39	1.38
23 November 2005	3.33	1.36
24 November 2005	ND	ND
25 November 2005	3.35	1.36
28 November 2005	3.36	1.36
29 November 2005	3.28	1.35
30 November 2005	3.32	1.35
1 December 2005	3.32	1.37
2 December 2005	3.30	1.38
5 December 2005	3.32	1.40
6 December 2005	3.39	1.44
7 December 2005	3.35	1.43
8 December 2005	3.40	1.44
9 December 2005	3.33	1.43
12 December 2005	3.30	1.43
13 December 2005	3.31	1.43
14 December 2005	3.40	1.44
15 December 2005	3.36	1.44
16 December 2005	3.39	1.44
19 December 2005	3.40	1.44
20 December 2005	3.41	1.46
21 December 2005	3.44	1.45
22 December 2005	3.50	1.47
23 December 2005	3.56	1.47
26 December 2005	ND	ND
27 December 2005	3.62	1.50
28 December 2005	3.60	1.49
29 December 2005	3.62	1.51
30 December 2005	3.60	1.52
2 January 2006	ND	ND
3 January 2006	3.53	1.51
4 January 2006	3.52	1.52
5 January 2006	3.49	1.53
6 January 2006	3.44	1.52
9 January 2006	3.41	1.52
10 January 2006	3.37	1.51
11 January 2006	3.33	1.51
12 January 2006	3.38	1.53
13 January 2006	3.51	1.55
16 January 2006	ND	ND
17 January 2006	3.52	1.56
18 January 2006	3.48	1.55
19 January 2006	3.46	1.56
20 January 2006	3.49	1.55
23 January 2006	3.47	1.56
24 January 2006	3.42	1.55
25 January 2006	3.27	1.52
26 January 2006	3.30	1.51
27 January 2006	3.30	1.49
30 January 2006	3.28	1.52
31 January 2006	3.26	1.52
1 February 2006	3.21	1.52
2 February 2006	3.26	1.55
3 February 2006	3.30	1.57
6 February 2006	3.36	1.57
7 February 2006	3.31	1.56
8 February 2006	3.31	1.56
9 February 2006	3.36	1.55
10 February 2006	3.34	1.55
13 February 2006	3.33	1.53
14 February 2006	3.30	1.52
15 February 2006	3.31	1.53
16 February 2006	3.29	1.52
17 February 2006	3.34	1.53
20 February 2006	ND	ND
21 February 2006	3.36	1.55
22 February 2006	3.38	1.54
23 February 2006	3.35	1.52
24 February 2006	3.33	1.50
27 February 2006	3.30	1.51
28 February 2006	3.26	1.51
1 March 2006	3.23	1.52
2 March 2006	3.19	1.51
3 March 2006	3.19	1.51
6 March 2006	3.07	1.49
7 March 2006	3.08	1.50
8 March 2006	3.12	1.50
9 March 2006	3.08	1.48
10 March 2006	3.07	1.48
13 March 2006	3.06	1.49
14 March 2006	3.07	1.49
15 March 2006	3.03	1.49
16 March 2006	3.05	1.50
17 March 2006	3.04	1.48
20 March 2006	3.03	1.49
21 March 2006	2.99	1.47
22 March 2006	3.03	1.49
23 March 2006	2.98	1.49
24 March 2006	3.02	1.53
27 March 2006	2.96	1.49
28 March 2006	2.94	1.50
29 March 2006	2.90	1.47
30 March 2006	2.86	1.46
31 March 2006	2.86	1.45
3 April 2006	2.84	1.47
4 April 2006	2.85	1.47
5 April 2006	2.82	1.47
6 April 2006	2.78	1.46
7 April 2006	2.77	1.47
10 April 2006	2.77	1.45
11 April 2006	2.77	1.45
12 April 2006	2.75	1.45
13 April 2006	2.74	1.44
14 April 2006	ND	ND
17 April 2006	2.79	1.45
18 April 2006	2.76	1.45
19 April 2006	2.70	1.42
20 April 2006	2.70	1.42
21 April 2006	2.75	1.42
24 April 2006	2.77	1.44
25 April 2006	2.70	1.41
26 April 2006	2.68	1.39
27 April 2006	2.68	1.41
28 April 2006	2.63	1.38
1 May 2006	2.58	1.35
2 May 2006	2.60	1.35
3 May 2006	2.56	1.35
4 May 2006	2.56	1.36
5 May 2006	2.57	1.36
8 May 2006	2.60	1.36
9 May 2006	2.61	1.38
10 May 2006	2.62	1.38
11 May 2006	2.55	1.35
12 May 2006	2.53	1.37
15 May 2006	2.58	1.36
16 May 2006	2.62	1.39
17 May 2006	2.63	1.39
18 May 2006	2.71	1.42
19 May 2006	2.75	1.43
22 May 2006	2.77	1.44
23 May 2006	2.76	1.43
24 May 2006	2.79	1.44
25 May 2006	2.77	1.45
26 May 2006	2.76	1.44
29 May 2006	ND	ND
30 May 2006	2.78	1.46
31 May 2006	2.76	1.47
1 June 2006	2.79	1.49
2 June 2006	2.83	1.48
5 June 2006	2.87	1.49
6 June 2006	2.93	1.52
7 June 2006	2.93	1.53
8 June 2006	2.98	1.55
9 June 2006	3.01	1.55
12 June 2006	3.01	1.57
13 June 2006	3.06	1.58
14 June 2006	3.08	1.62
15 June 2006	3.06	1.61
16 June 2006	3.04	1.60
19 June 2006	3.01	1.61
20 June 2006	3.02	1.62
21 June 2006	3.09	1.64
22 June 2006	3.09	1.64
23 June 2006	3.06	1.64
26 June 2006	3.06	1.65
27 June 2006	3.09	1.67
28 June 2006	3.06	1.65
29 June 2006	3.04	1.64
30 June 2006	3.01	1.64
3 July 2006	3.08	1.65
4 July 2006	ND	ND
5 July 2006	3.06	1.65
6 July 2006	3.13	1.68
7 July 2006	3.13	1.67
10 July 2006	3.16	1.67
11 July 2006	3.17	1.67
12 July 2006	3.22	1.69
13 July 2006	3.25	1.70
14 July 2006	3.24	1.70
17 July 2006	3.27	1.70
18 July 2006	3.23	1.69
19 July 2006	3.20	1.69
20 July 2006	3.25	1.67
21 July 2006	3.25	1.69
24 July 2006	3.27	1.68
25 July 2006	3.26	1.69
26 July 2006	3.25	1.68
27 July 2006	3.23	1.67
28 July 2006	3.26	1.66
31 July 2006	3.25	1.64
1 August 2006	3.26	1.65
2 August 2006	3.28	1.66
3 August 2006	3.30	1.66
4 August 2006	3.31	1.67
7 August 2006	3.29	1.68
8 August 2006	3.28	1.67
9 August 2006	3.25	1.65
10 August 2006	3.26	1.66
11 August 2006	3.24	1.66
14 August 2006	3.23	1.64
15 August 2006	3.27	1.64
16 August 2006	3.26	1.64
17 August 2006	3.26	1.65
18 August 2006	3.30	1.64
21 August 2006	3.30	1.66
22 August 2006	3.31	1.66
23 August 2006	3.31	1.66
24 August 2006	3.32	1.66
25 August 2006	3.34	1.68
28 August 2006	3.37	1.69
29 August 2006	3.42	1.71
30 August 2006	3.42	1.71
31 August 2006	3.49	1.73
1 September 2006	3.50	1.74
4 September 2006	ND	ND
5 September 2006	3.40	1.70
6 September 2006	3.37	1.70
7 September 2006	3.38	1.70
8 September 2006	3.36	1.69
11 September 2006	3.32	1.67
12 September 2006	3.35	1.68
13 September 2006	3.32	1.69
14 September 2006	3.28	1.68
15 September 2006	3.27	1.67
18 September 2006	3.25	1.66
19 September 2006	3.31	1.67
20 September 2006	3.31	1.67
21 September 2006	3.39	1.69
22 September 2006	3.43	1.71
25 September 2006	3.46	1.72
26 September 2006	3.45	1.71
27 September 2006	3.41	1.71
28 September 2006	3.40	1.73
29 September 2006	3.41	1.74
2 October 2006	3.40	1.75
3 October 2006	3.38	1.75
4 October 2006	3.46	1.76
5 October 2006	3.41	1.74
6 October 2006	3.36	1.74
9 October 2006	ND	ND
10 October 2006	3.29	1.69
11 October 2006	3.25	1.70
12 October 2006	3.24	1.69
13 October 2006	3.20	1.69
16 October 2006	3.22	1.67
17 October 2006	3.21	1.66
18 October 2006	3.22	1.65
19 October 2006	3.22	1.65
20 October 2006	3.22	1.65
23 October 2006	3.20	1.66
24 October 2006	3.18	1.65
25 October 2006	3.23	1.66
26 October 2006	3.25	1.63
27 October 2006	3.27	1.65
30 October 2006	3.31	1.69
31 October 2006	3.42	1.68
1 November 2006	3.47	1.68
2 November 2006	3.44	1.70
3 November 2006	3.31	1.63
6 November 2006	3.33	1.63
7 November 2006	3.37	1.63
8 November 2006	3.36	1.62
9 November 2006	3.32	1.60
10 November 2006	3.36	1.62
13 November 2006	3.32	1.59
14 November 2006	3.37	1.61
15 November 2006	3.32	1.61
16 November 2006	3.27	1.61
17 November 2006	3.31	1.60
20 November 2006	3.32	1.61
21 November 2006	3.31	1.61
22 November 2006	3.34	1.61
23 November 2006	ND	ND
24 November 2006	3.34	1.60
27 November 2006	3.37	1.63
28 November 2006	3.42	1.64
29 November 2006	3.39	1.63
30 November 2006	3.57	1.66
1 December 2006	3.62	1.71
4 December 2006	3.61	1.71
5 December 2006	3.57	1.71
6 December 2006	3.54	1.70
7 December 2006	3.54	1.71
8 December 2006	3.45	1.68
11 December 2006	3.48	1.67
12 December 2006	3.50	1.68
13 December 2006	3.40	1.65
14 December 2006	3.38	1.64
15 December 2006	3.35	1.64
18 December 2006	3.33	1.63
19 December 2006	3.31	1.62
20 December 2006	3.32	1.62
21 December 2006	3.38	1.64
22 December 2006	3.30	1.62
25 December 2006	ND	ND
26 December 2006	3.33	1.63
27 December 2006	3.30	1.62
28 December 2006	3.28	1.62
29 December 2006	3.28	1.62
1 January 2007	ND	ND
2 January 2007	3.42	1.62
3 January 2007	3.41	1.61
4 January 2007	3.48	1.63
5 January 2007	3.46	1.61
8 January 2007	3.46	1.61
9 January 2007	3.45	1.60
10 January 2007	3.41	1.59
11 January 2007	3.36	1.60
12 January 2007	3.30	1.59
15 January 2007	ND	ND
16 January 2007	3.33	1.59
17 January 2007	3.28	1.59
18 January 2007	3.33	1.59
19 January 2007	3.27	1.58
22 January 2007	3.27	1.60
23 January 2007	3.23	1.58
24 January 2007	3.20	1.58
25 January 2007	3.16	1.58
26 January 2007	3.14	1.56
29 January 2007	3.15	1.59
30 January 2007	3.19	1.60
31 January 2007	3.26	1.60
1 February 2007	3.22	1.60
2 February 2007	3.24	1.58
5 February 2007	3.22	1.57
6 February 2007	3.24	1.57
7 February 2007	3.21	1.55
8 February 2007	3.23	1.55
9 February 2007	3.17	1.53
12 February 2007	3.17	1.53
13 February 2007	3.15	1.53
14 February 2007	3.17	1.52
15 February 2007	3.15	1.51
16 February 2007	3.13	1.50
19 February 2007	ND	ND
20 February 2007	3.15	1.50
21 February 2007	3.13	1.50
22 February 2007	3.07	1.49
23 February 2007	3.07	1.47
26 February 2007	3.15	1.49
27 February 2007	3.26	1.53
28 February 2007	3.26	1.54
1 March 2007	3.29	1.55
2 March 2007	3.38	1.59
5 March 2007	3.43	1.66
6 March 2007	3.36	1.63
7 March 2007	3.34	1.63
8 March 2007	3.30	1.61
9 March 2007	3.24	1.58
12 March 2007	3.27	1.58
13 March 2007	3.34	1.63
14 March 2007	3.30	1.62
15 March 2007	3.26	1.60
16 March 2007	3.27	1.61
19 March 2007	3.23	1.59
20 March 2007	3.24	1.61
21 March 2007	3.24	1.62
22 March 2007	3.15	1.59
23 March 2007	3.14	1.61
26 March 2007	3.18	1.62
27 March 2007	3.16	1.63
28 March 2007	3.14	1.62
29 March 2007	3.13	1.63
30 March 2007	3.11	1.62
2 April 2007	3.07	1.62
3 April 2007	3.06	1.61
4 April 2007	3.10	1.64
5 April 2007	3.02	1.62
6 April 2007	ND	ND
9 April 2007	2.97	1.58
10 April 2007	2.95	1.56
11 April 2007	2.96	1.58
12 April 2007	2.95	1.57
13 April 2007	2.93	1.56
16 April 2007	2.93	1.55
17 April 2007	2.98	1.57
18 April 2007	3.01	1.58
19 April 2007	2.96	1.57
20 April 2007	2.93	1.56
23 April 2007	2.94	1.57
24 April 2007	2.97	1.58
25 April 2007	2.92	1.58
26 April 2007	2.88	1.57
27 April 2007	2.87	1.56
30 April 2007	2.97	1.59
1 May 2007	2.94	1.57
2 May 2007	2.93	1.56
3 May 2007	2.94	1.56
4 May 2007	2.97	1.57
7 May 2007	2.97	1.57
8 May 2007	2.95	1.54
9 May 2007	2.91	1.54
10 May 2007	2.89	1.52
11 May 2007	2.89	1.53
14 May 2007	2.88	1.53
15 May 2007	2.87	1.54
16 May 2007	2.85	1.54
17 May 2007	2.84	1.55
18 May 2007	2.81	1.55
21 May 2007	2.80	1.54
22 May 2007	2.73	1.51
23 May 2007	2.70	1.51
24 May 2007	2.71	1.51
25 May 2007	2.72	1.51
28 May 2007	ND	ND
29 May 2007	2.72	1.52
30 May 2007	2.71	1.50
31 May 2007	2.72	1.52
1 June 2007	2.69	1.52
4 June 2007	2.78	1.52
5 June 2007	2.71	1.53
6 June 2007	2.76	1.55
7 June 2007	2.72	1.56
8 June 2007	2.73	1.57
11 June 2007	2.69	1.55
12 June 2007	2.67	1.55
13 June 2007	2.76	1.57
14 June 2007	2.70	1.53
15 June 2007	2.71	1.52
18 June 2007	2.70	1.52
19 June 2007	2.77	1.52
20 June 2007	2.72	1.52
21 June 2007	2.73	1.53
22 June 2007	2.77	1.54
25 June 2007	2.84	1.53
26 June 2007	2.82	1.54
27 June 2007	2.89	1.55
28 June 2007	2.86	1.56
29 June 2007	2.95	1.56
2 July 2007	2.98	1.53
3 July 2007	2.91	1.52
4 July 2007	ND	ND
5 July 2007	2.87	1.54
6 July 2007	2.84	1.55
9 July 2007	2.89	1.54
10 July 2007	3.04	1.57
11 July 2007	3.00	1.55
12 July 2007	2.96	1.56
13 July 2007	2.97	1.58
16 July 2007	3.00	1.56
17 July 2007	3.03	1.60
18 July 2007	3.14	1.60
19 July 2007	3.08	1.63
20 July 2007	3.19	1.67
23 July 2007	3.25	1.66
24 July 2007	3.37	1.68
25 July 2007	3.38	1.67
26 July 2007	3.66	1.84
27 July 2007	3.59	1.85
30 July 2007	3.58	1.85
31 July 2007	3.55	1.84
1 August 2007	3.57	1.83
2 August 2007	3.60	1.80
3 August 2007	3.57	1.80
6 August 2007	3.54	1.81
7 August 2007	3.47	1.77
8 August 2007	3.35	1.76
9 August 2007	3.33	1.76
10 August 2007	3.34	1.75
13 August 2007	3.33	1.77
14 August 2007	3.34	1.78
15 August 2007	3.23	1.70
16 August 2007	3.20	1.65
17 August 2007	3.12	1.64
20 August 2007	3.10	1.64
21 August 2007	3.12	1.68
22 August 2007	3.15	1.72
23 August 2007	3.23	1.69
24 August 2007	3.28	1.72
27 August 2007	3.26	1.68
28 August 2007	3.18	1.66
29 August 2007	3.19	1.67
30 August 2007	3.24	1.69
31 August 2007	3.17	1.69
3 September 2007	ND	ND
4 September 2007	3.18	1.70
5 September 2007	3.20	1.67
6 September 2007	3.14	1.68
7 September 2007	3.21	1.67
10 September 2007	3.26	1.72
11 September 2007	3.28	1.76
12 September 2007	3.25	1.76
13 September 2007	3.25	1.75
14 September 2007	3.23	1.74
17 September 2007	3.21	1.73
18 September 2007	3.13	1.70
19 September 2007	3.00	1.66
20 September 2007	2.91	1.61
21 September 2007	2.89	1.58
24 September 2007	2.91	1.57
25 September 2007	2.88	1.56
26 September 2007	2.87	1.56
27 September 2007	2.91	1.55
28 September 2007	2.94	1.56
1 October 2007	2.99	1.56
2 October 2007	2.97	1.58
3 October 2007	2.95	1.55
4 October 2007	2.99	1.52
5 October 2007	2.89	1.52
8 October 2007	ND	ND
9 October 2007	2.90	1.53
10 October 2007	2.86	1.51
11 October 2007	2.80	ND
12 October 2007	2.76	1.45
15 October 2007	2.75	1.44
16 October 2007	2.80	1.47
17 October 2007	2.89	1.46
18 October 2007	2.87	1.45
19 October 2007	3.07	1.50
22 October 2007	3.12	1.55
23 October 2007	3.05	1.53
24 October 2007	3.10	1.51
25 October 2007	3.09	1.54
26 October 2007	3.11	1.55
29 October 2007	3.07	1.53
30 October 2007	3.03	1.51
31 October 2007	3.11	1.53
1 November 2007	3.17	1.52
2 November 2007	3.24	1.53
5 November 2007	3.19	1.54
6 November 2007	3.16	1.53
7 November 2007	3.09	1.53
8 November 2007	3.16	1.55
9 November 2007	3.25	1.56
12 November 2007	ND	ND
13 November 2007	3.26	1.58
14 November 2007	3.24	1.60
15 November 2007	3.33	1.63
16 November 2007	3.42	1.65
19 November 2007	3.48	1.67
20 November 2007	3.44	1.69
21 November 2007	3.50	1.68
22 November 2007	ND	ND
23 November 2007	3.59	1.74
26 November 2007	3.71	1.75
27 November 2007	3.62	1.70
28 November 2007	3.60	1.74
29 November 2007	3.63	1.77
30 November 2007	3.65	1.75
3 December 2007	3.67	1.73
4 December 2007	3.65	1.75
5 December 2007	3.54	1.76
6 December 2007	3.44	1.76
7 December 2007	3.33	1.73
10 December 2007	3.27	1.68
11 December 2007	3.26	1.63
12 December 2007	3.27	1.67
13 December 2007	3.19	1.63
14 December 2007	3.16	1.60
17 December 2007	3.17	1.59
18 December 2007	3.24	1.59
19 December 2007	3.35	1.60
20 December 2007	3.41	1.59
21 December 2007	3.35	1.63
24 December 2007	3.35	1.64
25 December 2007	ND	ND
26 December 2007	3.27	1.60
27 December 2007	3.32	1.61
28 December 2007	3.39	1.63
31 December 2007	3.68	1.57
1 January 2008	ND	ND
2 January 2008	3.80	1.58
3 January 2008	3.80	1.59
4 January 2008	3.79	1.59
7 January 2008	3.78	1.58
8 January 2008	3.79	1.63
9 January 2008	3.88	1.67
10 January 2008	3.74	1.67
11 January 2008	3.78	1.68
14 January 2008	3.77	1.70
15 January 2008	3.88	1.75
16 January 2008	3.92	1.80
17 January 2008	4.04	1.76
18 January 2008	4.01	1.76
21 January 2008	ND	ND
22 January 2008	4.00	1.75
23 January 2008	3.93	1.69
24 January 2008	3.80	1.72
25 January 2008	3.87	1.71
28 January 2008	3.79	1.70
29 January 2008	3.73	1.69
30 January 2008	3.66	1.70
31 January 2008	3.62	1.79
1 February 2008	3.66	1.82
4 February 2008	3.65	1.82
5 February 2008	3.66	1.79
6 February 2008	3.65	1.77
7 February 2008	3.55	1.77
8 February 2008	3.70	1.82
11 February 2008	3.82	1.84
12 February 2008	3.80	1.84
13 February 2008	3.65	1.81
14 February 2008	3.52	1.77
15 February 2008	3.63	1.82
18 February 2008	ND	ND
19 February 2008	3.57	1.79
20 February 2008	3.64	1.82
21 February 2008	3.69	1.82
22 February 2008	3.62	1.82
25 February 2008	3.51	1.80
26 February 2008	3.45	1.80
27 February 2008	3.45	1.79
28 February 2008	3.52	1.82
29 February 2008	3.72	1.81
3 March 2008	3.76	1.81
4 March 2008	3.62	1.74
5 March 2008	3.58	1.76
6 March 2008	3.59	1.79
7 March 2008	3.64	1.79
10 March 2008	3.70	1.78
11 March 2008	3.77	1.79
12 March 2008	3.95	1.83
13 March 2008	3.86	1.78
14 March 2008	4.02	1.75
17 March 2008	4.14	1.71
18 March 2008	4.10	1.74
19 March 2008	4.02	1.79
20 March 2008	4.20	1.84
21 March 2008	ND	ND
24 March 2008	3.96	1.82
25 March 2008	3.92	1.82
26 March 2008	3.83	1.75
27 March 2008	3.79	1.74
28 March 2008	3.81	1.71
31 March 2008	4.07	1.69
1 April 2008	3.84	1.65
2 April 2008	4.04	1.73
3 April 2008	4.16	1.74
4 April 2008	4.10	1.75
7 April 2008	4.01	1.77
8 April 2008	4.00	1.75
9 April 2008	4.04	1.73
10 April 2008	4.07	1.78
11 April 2008	4.05	1.79
14 April 2008	4.01	1.77
15 April 2008	3.98	1.79
16 April 2008	3.90	1.79
17 April 2008	3.94	1.80
18 April 2008	3.85	1.73
21 April 2008	3.99	1.82
22 April 2008	4.02	1.85
23 April 2008	3.96	1.83
24 April 2008	3.95	1.86
25 April 2008	3.93	1.84
28 April 2008	3.97	1.83
29 April 2008	4.05	1.78
30 April 2008	4.05	1.75
1 May 2008	3.90	1.76
2 May 2008	3.89	1.66
5 May 2008	3.92	1.70
6 May 2008	3.85	1.65
7 May 2008	3.89	1.65
8 May 2008	3.91	1.64
9 May 2008	3.96	1.65
12 May 2008	4.01	1.67
13 May 2008	3.98	1.72
14 May 2008	3.99	1.78
15 May 2008	3.98	1.80
16 May 2008	4.02	1.79
19 May 2008	4.06	1.79
20 May 2008	4.10	1.80
21 May 2008	4.15	1.86
22 May 2008	4.19	1.90
23 May 2008	4.24	1.88
26 May 2008	ND	ND
27 May 2008	4.08	1.89
28 May 2008	4.07	1.87
29 May 2008	4.07	1.87
30 May 2008	4.08	1.83
2 June 2008	3.99	1.80
3 June 2008	4.01	1.73
4 June 2008	3.90	1.69
5 June 2008	3.76	1.65
6 June 2008	3.86	1.65
9 June 2008	4.00	1.75
10 June 2008	4.06	1.84
11 June 2008	4.04	1.82
12 June 2008	4.07	1.87
13 June 2008	4.04	1.87
16 June 2008	4.06	1.88
17 June 2008	4.05	1.85
18 June 2008	4.07	1.90
19 June 2008	4.08	1.88
20 June 2008	4.12	1.91
23 June 2008	4.16	1.94
24 June 2008	4.26	1.98
25 June 2008	4.23	1.95
26 June 2008	4.33	1.97
27 June 2008	4.39	2.04
30 June 2008	4.30	1.98
1 July 2008	4.24	1.93
2 July 2008	4.28	1.93
3 July 2008	4.27	1.97
4 July 2008	ND	ND
7 July 2008	4.32	1.93
8 July 2008	4.44	1.97
9 July 2008	4.43	1.98
10 July 2008	4.44	1.97
11 July 2008	4.48	2.03
14 July 2008	4.52	2.02
15 July 2008	4.46	2.03
16 July 2008	4.33	1.98
17 July 2008	4.21	2.02
18 July 2008	4.18	2.09
21 July 2008	4.11	2.09
22 July 2008	4.27	2.10
23 July 2008	4.25	2.12
24 July 2008	4.33	2.12
25 July 2008	4.22	2.06
28 July 2008	4.26	2.02
29 July 2008	4.23	2.04
30 July 2008	4.27	2.07
31 July 2008	4.40	2.10
1 August 2008	4.40	2.08
4 August 2008	4.42	2.08
5 August 2008	4.36	2.08
6 August 2008	4.34	2.10
7 August 2008	4.44	2.12
8 August 2008	4.50	2.14
11 August 2008	4.42	2.13
12 August 2008	4.40	2.11
13 August 2008	4.37	2.11
14 August 2008	4.45	2.12
15 August 2008	4.44	2.14
18 August 2008	4.51	2.12
19 August 2008	4.50	2.10
20 August 2008	4.54	2.13
21 August 2008	4.57	2.16
22 August 2008	4.62	2.21
25 August 2008	4.69	2.22
26 August 2008	4.70	2.23
27 August 2008	4.68	2.21
28 August 2008	4.68	2.24
29 August 2008	4.57	2.18
1 September 2008	ND	ND
2 September 2008	4.79	2.19
3 September 2008	4.81	2.18
4 September 2008	4.85	2.18
5 September 2008	4.87	2.21
8 September 2008	4.93	2.27
9 September 2008	4.96	2.29
10 September 2008	4.98	2.32
11 September 2008	4.92	2.36
12 September 2008	4.84	2.40
15 September 2008	5.25	2.49
16 September 2008	5.27	2.57
17 September 2008	5.28	2.59
18 September 2008	5.38	2.64
19 September 2008	5.22	2.64
22 September 2008	5.22	2.59
23 September 2008	5.33	2.54
24 September 2008	5.35	2.43
25 September 2008	5.60	2.63
26 September 2008	5.22	2.74
29 September 2008	5.66	2.82
30 September 2008	5.90	2.90
1 October 2008	6.34	3.20
2 October 2008	7.03	3.22
3 October 2008	6.67	3.27
6 October 2008	6.31	3.26
7 October 2008	4.55	3.32
8 October 2008	5.07	3.39
9 October 2008	6.89	3.29
10 October 2008	6.58	3.63
13 October 2008	ND	ND
14 October 2008	7.65	3.77
15 October 2008	9.32	3.74
16 October 2008	9.85	3.75
17 October 2008	7.65	3.72
20 October 2008	8.42	3.72
21 October 2008	7.70	3.52
22 October 2008	5.70	3.53
23 October 2008	5.88	3.63
24 October 2008	8.29	3.63
27 October 2008	8.92	3.68
28 October 2008	6.89	3.67
29 October 2008	7.34	3.65
30 October 2008	8.55	3.53
31 October 2008	7.02	3.39
3 November 2008	7.12	3.22
4 November 2008	6.98	3.17
5 November 2008	7.44	3.27
6 November 2008	6.81	3.26
7 November 2008	8.35	3.33
10 November 2008	9.06	3.43
11 November 2008	ND	ND
12 November 2008	8.50	3.36
13 November 2008	8.87	3.32
14 November 2008	9.18	3.45
17 November 2008	9.10	3.57
18 November 2008	9.41	3.73
19 November 2008	11.15	3.83
20 November 2008	11.04	4.11
21 November 2008	11.11	4.18
24 November 2008	12.16	4.33
25 November 2008	11.69	4.29
26 November 2008	11.13	4.32
27 November 2008	ND	ND
28 November 2008	11.53	4.27
1 December 2008	11.31	4.08
2 December 2008	11.41	4.19
3 December 2008	10.46	4.30
4 December 2008	12.57	4.38
5 December 2008	12.31	4.45
8 December 2008	11.90	4.55
9 December 2008	9.21	4.59
10 December 2008	9.53	4.52
11 December 2008	11.16	4.57
12 December 2008	12.89	4.50
15 December 2008	12.38	4.45
16 December 2008	11.71	4.53
17 December 2008	12.36	4.63
18 December 2008	12.52	4.71
19 December 2008	12.58	4.73
22 December 2008	12.35	4.74
23 December 2008	12.05	4.80
24 December 2008	11.38	4.74
25 December 2008	ND	ND
26 December 2008	10.97	4.70
29 December 2008	10.68	4.59
30 December 2008	12.52	4.63
31 December 2008	12.66	4.61
1 January 2009	ND	ND
2 January 2009	11.51	4.51
5 January 2009	11.18	4.37
6 January 2009	10.57	4.23
7 January 2009	9.20	4.12
8 January 2009	10.05	4.07
9 January 2009	8.96	3.99
12 January 2009	9.27	4.02
13 January 2009	9.05	4.04
14 January 2009	9.51	4.18
15 January 2009	9.36	4.35
16 January 2009	9.26	4.15
19 January 2009	ND	ND
20 January 2009	8.96	4.21
21 January 2009	8.58	4.11
22 January 2009	8.86	4.04
23 January 2009	9.51	4.04
26 January 2009	8.39	3.95
27 January 2009	8.82	3.94
28 January 2009	8.09	3.87
29 January 2009	8.86	3.86
30 January 2009	8.11	3.78
2 February 2009	8.71	3.85
3 February 2009	8.05	3.90
4 February 2009	8.26	4.00
5 February 2009	8.32	3.88
6 February 2009	8.37	3.83
9 February 2009	9.20	3.92
10 February 2009	9.13	3.84
11 February 2009	7.62	3.80
12 February 2009	7.81	3.79
13 February 2009	8.57	3.79
16 February 2009	ND	ND
17 February 2009	7.90	3.90
18 February 2009	9.78	3.92
19 February 2009	8.61	3.90
20 February 2009	8.16	3.92
23 February 2009	8.93	3.99
24 February 2009	9.03	4.10
25 February 2009	9.04	4.20
26 February 2009	10.01	4.25
27 February 2009	10.85	4.18
2 March 2009	10.95	4.07
3 March 2009	10.57	4.18
4 March 2009	11.28	4.17
5 March 2009	11.06	4.23
6 March 2009	11.39	4.33
9 March 2009	12.40	4.32
10 March 2009	12.45	4.40
11 March 2009	10.59	4.46
12 March 2009	10.87	4.58
13 March 2009	10.06	4.59
16 March 2009	9.95	4.53
17 March 2009	10.40	4.58
18 March 2009	10.43	4.54
19 March 2009	11.55	4.74
20 March 2009	10.75	4.70
23 March 2009	11.51	4.76
24 March 2009	10.16	4.72
25 March 2009	9.02	4.68
26 March 2009	9.91	4.69
27 March 2009	10.01	4.67
30 March 2009	9.91	4.64
31 March 2009	9.44	4.49
1 April 2009	9.47	4.53
2 April 2009	9.48	4.52
3 April 2009	9.63	4.54
6 April 2009	8.63	4.40
7 April 2009	8.28	4.37
8 April 2009	8.26	4.35
9 April 2009	8.43	4.24
10 April 2009	ND	ND
13 April 2009	8.52	4.17
14 April 2009	8.37	4.19
15 April 2009	8.29	4.08
16 April 2009	8.47	4.07
17 April 2009	8.97	3.99
20 April 2009	8.09	4.04
21 April 2009	8.10	4.04
22 April 2009	8.18	4.03
23 April 2009	8.33	3.99
24 April 2009	7.67	3.96
27 April 2009	7.77	3.90
28 April 2009	7.66	3.87
29 April 2009	7.28	3.73
30 April 2009	6.99	3.70
1 May 2009	6.27	3.49
4 May 2009	6.96	3.51
5 May 2009	6.92	3.42
6 May 2009	6.97	3.35
7 May 2009	7.04	3.23
8 May 2009	6.87	3.22
11 May 2009	7.00	3.21
12 May 2009	7.35	3.22
13 May 2009	7.63	3.27
14 May 2009	8.18	3.33
15 May 2009	8.35	3.32
18 May 2009	7.98	3.32
19 May 2009	8.05	3.30
20 May 2009	7.97	3.28
21 May 2009	7.72	3.17
22 May 2009	7.42	3.18
25 May 2009	ND	ND
26 May 2009	7.50	3.12
27 May 2009	7.18	3.02
28 May 2009	7.10	3.00
29 May 2009	7.17	2.90
1 June 2009	6.64	2.86
2 June 2009	6.32	2.78
3 June 2009	6.47	2.71
4 June 2009	6.15	2.69
5 June 2009	6.15	2.79
8 June 2009	6.21	2.76
9 June 2009	6.27	2.77
10 June 2009	6.17	2.70
11 June 2009	6.18	2.67
12 June 2009	6.20	2.67
15 June 2009	6.12	2.61
16 June 2009	6.23	2.50
17 June 2009	6.17	2.67
18 June 2009	5.87	2.44
19 June 2009	5.86	2.62
22 June 2009	5.97	2.54
23 June 2009	6.16	2.67
24 June 2009	6.11	2.68
25 June 2009	6.25	2.67
26 June 2009	6.27	2.64
29 June 2009	6.29	2.82
30 June 2009	5.93	2.84
1 July 2009	6.13	2.83
2 July 2009	6.08	2.72
3 July 2009	ND	ND
6 July 2009	6.04	2.75
7 July 2009	6.07	2.72
8 July 2009	6.12	2.70
9 July 2009	6.05	2.73
10 July 2009	6.06	2.71
13 July 2009	5.59	2.65
14 July 2009	5.92	2.58
15 July 2009	5.66	2.52
16 July 2009	5.76	2.47
17 July 2009	5.69	2.44
20 July 2009	5.53	2.38
21 July 2009	5.57	2.35
22 July 2009	5.60	2.33
23 July 2009	5.45	2.34
24 July 2009	5.43	2.28
27 July 2009	5.27	2.22
28 July 2009	5.26	2.19
29 July 2009	5.34	2.10
30 July 2009	5.31	2.16
31 July 2009	5.19	2.04
3 August 2009	5.03	2.19
4 August 2009	4.96	1.98
5 August 2009	4.76	1.92
6 August 2009	4.73	2.05
7 August 2009	4.63	1.94
10 August 2009	4.63	2.09
11 August 2009	4.81	2.07
12 August 2009	4.83	2.16
13 August 2009	4.95	1.72
14 August 2009	5.00	1.80
17 August 2009	5.29	2.26
18 August 2009	5.14	2.29
19 August 2009	5.17	2.28
20 August 2009	5.25	2.32
21 August 2009	5.15	2.24
24 August 2009	5.17	2.33
25 August 2009	5.24	2.22
26 August 2009	5.29	2.33
27 August 2009	5.17	2.26
28 August 2009	5.09	2.27
31 August 2009	4.89	2.20
1 September 2009	4.88	2.28
2 September 2009	5.00	2.24
3 September 2009	5.01	2.37
4 September 2009	4.83	2.21
7 September 2009	ND	ND
8 September 2009	4.79	2.15
9 September 2009	4.76	2.25
10 September 2009	4.87	2.17
11 September 2009	4.85	2.34
14 September 2009	4.68	2.21
15 September 2009	4.49	2.14
16 September 2009	4.41	2.20
17 September 2009	4.47	2.29
18 September 2009	4.40	2.12
21 September 2009	4.38	2.21
22 September 2009	4.29	2.11
23 September 2009	4.23	2.17
24 September 2009	4.21	2.09
25 September 2009	4.29	2.22
28 September 2009	4.34	2.15
29 September 2009	4.34	2.23
30 September 2009	4.18	2.28
1 October 2009	4.36	2.18
2 October 2009	4.36	2.23
5 October 2009	4.37	2.25
6 October 2009	4.28	2.21
7 October 2009	4.32	2.21
8 October 2009	4.24	2.07
9 October 2009	4.10	1.98
12 October 2009	ND	ND
13 October 2009	4.14	1.97
14 October 2009	3.97	1.93
15 October 2009	3.93	1.92
16 October 2009	4.01	1.93
19 October 2009	4.02	1.95
20 October 2009	4.08	1.96
21 October 2009	4.02	1.96
22 October 2009	4.00	1.95
23 October 2009	3.94	1.93
26 October 2009	3.73	1.86
27 October 2009	3.75	1.87
28 October 2009	3.91	1.95
29 October 2009	3.80	1.92
30 October 2009	3.88	1.98
2 November 2009	3.73	2.01
3 November 2009	3.57	1.96
4 November 2009	3.56	1.95
5 November 2009	3.50	1.86
6 November 2009	3.46	1.82
9 November 2009	3.47	1.81
10 November 2009	3.47	1.80
11 November 2009	ND	ND
12 November 2009	3.48	1.77
13 November 2009	3.57	1.84
16 November 2009	3.61	1.82
17 November 2009	3.72	1.90
18 November 2009	3.71	1.93
19 November 2009	3.72	1.96
20 November 2009	3.73	1.98
23 November 2009	3.71	1.96
24 November 2009	3.74	2.06
25 November 2009	3.81	2.09
26 November 2009	ND	ND
27 November 2009	3.88	2.16
30 November 2009	4.02	2.03
1 December 2009	3.97	1.94
2 December 2009	3.96	1.97
3 December 2009	3.63	1.87
4 December 2009	3.77	1.85
7 December 2009	3.53	1.60
8 December 2009	3.74	1.54
9 December 2009	3.48	1.51
10 December 2009	3.56	1.52
11 December 2009	3.33	1.45
14 December 2009	3.54	1.43
15 December 2009	3.43	1.45
16 December 2009	3.53	1.44
17 December 2009	3.43	1.45
18 December 2009	3.46	1.41
21 December 2009	3.13	1.39
22 December 2009	3.31	1.31
23 December 2009	3.28	1.31
24 December 2009	2.99	1.31
25 December 2009	ND	ND
28 December 2009	3.31	1.33
29 December 2009	3.02	1.30
30 December 2009	3.29	1.29
31 December 2009	2.75	1.16
1 January 2010	ND	ND
4 January 2010	2.58	1.09
5 January 2010	2.57	1.03
6 January 2010	2.43	0.99
7 January 2010	2.39	1.03
8 January 2010	2.35	1.03
11 January 2010	2.28	1.02
12 January 2010	2.42	1.10
13 January 2010	2.33	1.09
14 January 2010	2.40	1.10
15 January 2010	2.46	1.12
18 January 2010	ND	ND
19 January 2010	2.48	1.15
20 January 2010	2.58	1.19
21 January 2010	2.59	1.24
22 January 2010	2.66	1.31
25 January 2010	2.65	1.32
26 January 2010	2.65	1.32
27 January 2010	2.66	1.33
28 January 2010	2.61	1.30
29 January 2010	2.64	1.31
1 February 2010	2.55	1.29
2 February 2010	2.53	1.26
3 February 2010	2.44	1.25
4 February 2010	2.55	1.33
5 February 2010	2.61	1.33
8 February 2010	2.63	1.36
9 February 2010	2.60	1.34
10 February 2010	2.58	1.27
11 February 2010	2.64	1.34
12 February 2010	2.64	1.34
15 February 2010	ND	ND
16 February 2010	2.65	1.35
17 February 2010	2.46	1.35
18 February 2010	2.39	1.31
19 February 2010	2.43	1.29
22 February 2010	2.37	1.28
23 February 2010	2.48	1.29
24 February 2010	2.47	1.29
25 February 2010	2.48	1.28
26 February 2010	2.54	1.30
1 March 2010	2.54	1.15
2 March 2010	2.49	1.23
3 March 2010	2.48	1.22
4 March 2010	2.57	1.26
5 March 2010	2.47	1.20
8 March 2010	2.39	1.16
9 March 2010	2.38	1.17
10 March 2010	2.37	1.18
11 March 2010	2.41	1.20
12 March 2010	2.46	1.23
15 March 2010	2.44	1.24
16 March 2010	2.50	1.25
17 March 2010	2.55	1.27
18 March 2010	2.53	1.28
19 March 2010	2.58	1.31
22 March 2010	2.53	1.30
23 March 2010	2.53	1.28
24 March 2010	2.48	1.31
25 March 2010	2.35	1.24
26 March 2010	2.35	1.25
29 March 2010	2.36	1.25
30 March 2010	2.35	1.26
31 March 2010	2.26	1.24
1 April 2010	2.25	1.22
2 April 2010	ND	ND
5 April 2010	2.14	1.07
6 April 2010	2.15	1.10
7 April 2010	2.21	1.11
8 April 2010	2.23	1.10
9 April 2010	2.23	1.11
12 April 2010	2.24	1.14
13 April 2010	2.23	1.10
14 April 2010	2.16	1.08
15 April 2010	2.15	1.07
16 April 2010	2.18	1.08
19 April 2010	2.16	1.07
20 April 2010	2.20	1.08
21 April 2010	2.24	1.10
22 April 2010	2.22	1.11
23 April 2010	2.21	1.12
26 April 2010	2.18	1.12
27 April 2010	2.22	1.11
28 April 2010	2.23	1.15
29 April 2010	2.22	1.13
30 April 2010	2.24	1.16
3 May 2010	2.27	1.16
4 May 2010	2.37	1.18
5 May 2010	2.38	1.17
6 May 2010	2.59	1.24
7 May 2010	2.76	1.37
10 May 2010	2.59	1.37
11 May 2010	2.58	1.38
12 May 2010	2.52	1.35
13 May 2010	2.53	1.37
14 May 2010	2.63	1.34
17 May 2010	2.63	1.37
18 May 2010	2.71	1.52
19 May 2010	2.83	1.44
20 May 2010	3.06	1.56
21 May 2010	3.18	1.60
24 May 2010	3.13	1.62
25 May 2010	3.30	1.68
26 May 2010	3.23	1.74
27 May 2010	3.07	1.73
28 May 2010	3.04	1.71
31 May 2010	ND	ND
1 June 2010	3.02	1.71
2 June 2010	2.98	1.68
3 June 2010	2.89	1.67
4 June 2010	3.09	1.69
7 June 2010	3.09	1.75
8 June 2010	3.16	1.76
9 June 2010	3.15	1.78
10 June 2010	3.10	1.78
11 June 2010	3.19	1.78
14 June 2010	3.12	1.81
15 June 2010	3.01	1.75
16 June 2010	3.07	1.78
17 June 2010	3.07	1.75
18 June 2010	3.02	1.74
21 June 2010	2.95	1.69

* Forward spreads between years nine and ten. Return to text

Top-right panel
Corporate Bonds Median One-month Haircuts

Percent
Period	High-yield	Investment-grade
9 April 2008	21.25	10.00
16 April 2008	21.25	10.00
23 April 2008	21.25	10.00
30 April 2008	20.00	10.00
7 May 2008	20.00	10.00
14 May 2008	20.00	10.00
21 May 2008	20.00	10.00
28 May 2008	20.00	10.00
4 June 2008	20.00	10.00
11 June 2008	20.00	10.00
18 June 2008	20.00	10.00
25 June 2008	20.00	10.00
2 July 2008	20.00	10.00
9 July 2008	20.00	10.00
16 July 2008	20.00	10.00
23 July 2008	20.00	10.00
30 July 2008	22.50	10.00
6 August 2008	20.00	10.00
13 August 2008	20.00	10.00
20 August 2008	20.00	11.00
27 August 2008	20.00	11.00
3 September 2008	20.00	11.00
10 September 2008	20.00	11.00
17 September 2008	20.00	11.00
24 September 2008	25.00	15.00
1 October 2008	28.75	15.00
8 October 2008	33.75	15.00
15 October 2008	33.75	16.25
22 October 2008	37.50	16.25
29 October 2008	37.50	18.75
5 November 2008	37.50	18.75
12 November 2008	37.50	18.75
19 November 2008	37.50	18.75
26 November 2008	36.25	18.75
3 December 2008	36.25	20.00
10 December 2008	36.25	20.00
17 December 2008	36.25	20.00
24 December 2008	36.25	20.00
31 December 2008	36.25	20.00
7 January 2009	36.25	20.00
14 January 2009	36.25	20.00
21 January 2009	36.25	20.00
28 January 2009	36.25	20.00
4 February 2009	36.25	20.00
11 February 2009	36.25	20.00
18 February 2009	36.25	18.75
25 February 2009	36.25	18.75
4 March 2009	35.00	20.00
11 March 2009	35.00	20.00
18 March 2009	35.00	20.00
25 March 2009	35.00	22.50
1 April 2009	35.00	22.50
8 April 2009	35.00	22.50
15 April 2009	35.00	22.50
22 April 2009	35.00	20.00
29 April 2009	35.00	20.00
6 May 2009	35.00	20.00
13 May 2009	35.00	20.00
20 May 2009	35.00	20.00
27 May 2009	36.25	20.00
3 June 2009	36.25	20.00
10 June 2009	36.25	20.00
17 June 2009	36.25	20.00
24 June 2009	36.25	20.00
1 July 2009	36.25	20.00
8 July 2009	36.25	20.00
15 July 2009	36.25	20.00
22 July 2009	36.25	20.00
29 July 2009	36.25	20.00
5 August 2009	36.25	20.00
12 August 2009	36.25	20.00
19 August 2009	36.25	20.00
26 August 2009	36.25	20.00
2 September 2009	36.25	20.00
9 September 2009	35.00	20.00
16 September 2009	35.00	20.00
23 September 2009	35.00	20.00
30 September 2009	35.00	15.00
7 October 2009	35.00	15.00
14 October 2009	35.00	15.00
21 October 2009	35.00	15.00
28 October 2009	33.75	15.00
4 November 2009	33.75	15.00
11 November 2009	33.75	15.00
18 November 2009	33.75	15.00
25 November 2009	31.25	15.00
2 December 2009	31.25	15.00
9 December 2009	31.25	15.00
16 December 2009	27.50	13.50
23 December 2009	27.50	13.50
30 December 2009	27.50	13.50
6 January 2010	ND	ND
13 January 2010	26.25	13.50
20 January 2010	26.25	13.50
27 January 2010	26.25	12.50
3 February 2010	26.25	12.50
10 February 2010	25.00	12.50
17 February 2010	25.00	12.50
24 February 2010	25.00	12.50
3 March 2010	25.00	12.50
10 March 2010	25.00	12.50
17 March 2010	25.00	12.50
24 March 2010	25.00	12.50
31 March 2010	ND	ND
7 April 2010	25.00	12.50
14 April 2010	25.00	12.50
21 April 2010	ND	ND
28 April 2010	25.00	12.50
5 May 2010	ND	ND
12 May 2010	25.00	12.50
19 May 2010	25.00	12.50
26 May 2010	25.00	12.50
2 June 2010	25.00	12.50
9 June 2010	25.00	12.50
16 June 2010	25.00	12.50

Source: FRBNY weekly survey of primary dealers.

Middle-left panel
Equity Premium

Percent
Period	Expected ten-year real equity return	Expected real yield on ten-year Treasury*
January 1990	7.57	4.36
February 1990	8.00	4.62
March 1990	8.10	4.74
April 1990	7.91	4.66
May 1990	7.71	4.64
June 1990	7.58	4.37
July 1990	7.67	4.36
August 1990	8.38	4.62
September 1990	9.07	4.78
October 1990	9.59	4.64
November 1990	8.86	4.31
December 1990	8.47	4.03
January 1991	9.01	4.17
February 1991	7.60	3.95
March 1991	7.53	4.20
April 1991	7.16	4.11
May 1991	7.78	4.16
June 1991	7.65	4.36
July 1991	7.51	4.31
August 1991	7.34	3.98
September 1991	7.47	3.74
October 1991	7.45	3.67
November 1991	7.33	3.62
December 1991	7.59	3.33
January 1992	7.02	3.62
February 1992	7.60	3.86
March 1992	7.81	3.99
April 1992	7.73	3.75
May 1992	7.84	3.66
June 1992	8.28	3.54
July 1992	8.17	3.36
August 1992	8.10	3.14
September 1992	8.05	3.01
October 1992	8.38	3.30
November 1992	7.98	3.51
December 1992	7.85	3.42
January 1993	7.93	3.36
February 1993	8.00	3.02
March 1993	7.78	2.79
April 1993	7.59	2.56
May 1993	7.59	2.57
June 1993	7.75	2.42
July 1993	7.94	2.50
August 1993	7.82	2.42
September 1993	7.72	2.11
October 1993	7.76	2.06
November 1993	7.73	2.43
December 1993	7.81	2.46
January 1994	7.62	2.42
February 1994	7.73	2.67
March 1994	7.79	3.18
April 1994	8.23	3.60
May 1994	8.14	3.77
June 1994	8.00	3.69
July 1994	8.29	3.89
August 1994	8.08	3.82
September 1994	8.07	4.05
October 1994	8.16	4.30
November 1994	8.36	4.50
December 1994	8.64	4.39
January 1995	8.62	4.58
February 1995	8.43	4.25
March 1995	8.35	4.01
April 1995	8.12	3.81
May 1995	7.84	3.37
June 1995	7.64	2.94
July 1995	7.59	3.20
August 1995	7.54	3.41
September 1995	7.33	3.13
October 1995	7.43	3.14
November 1995	7.39	3.03
December 1995	7.07	2.83
January 1996	7.23	2.77
February 1996	6.55	2.92
March 1996	6.79	3.41
April 1996	6.76	3.67
May 1996	6.45	3.84
June 1996	6.55	3.98
July 1996	6.94	3.91
August 1996	6.53	3.67
September 1996	6.30	3.90
October 1996	6.07	3.60
November 1996	5.81	3.28
December 1996	5.92	3.36
January 1997	5.56	3.62
February 1997	5.14	3.48
March 1997	5.49	3.79
April 1997	5.98	4.13
May 1997	5.18	3.94
June 1997	4.59	3.74
July 1997	4.00	3.32
August 1997	4.29	3.42
September 1997	4.11	3.35
October 1997	4.29	3.53
November 1997	4.50	3.35
December 1997	4.36	3.25
January 1998	4.62	3.06
February 1998	4.03	3.13
March 1998	3.57	3.21
April 1998	3.40	3.30
May 1998	3.47	3.32
June 1998	3.59	3.17
July 1998	3.04	3.11
August 1998	3.67	2.97
September 1998	4.20	2.52
October 1998	4.49	2.33
November 1998	3.25	2.58
December 1998	3.08	2.44
January 1999	2.77	2.78
February 1999	3.09	3.05
March 1999	2.76	3.29
April 1999	2.58	3.00
May 1999	2.44	3.33
June 1999	2.66	3.69
July 1999	2.20	3.60
August 1999	2.67	3.79
September 1999	2.79	3.81
October 1999	3.10	4.01
November 1999	2.31	3.84
December 1999	2.28	4.07
January 2000	2.19	4.33
February 2000	2.81	4.21
March 2000	2.83	4.00
April 2000	2.57	3.76
May 2000	2.64	4.17
June 2000	2.35	3.83
July 2000	2.20	3.74
August 2000	2.24	3.56
September 2000	2.26	3.56
October 2000	3.24	3.45
November 2000	2.85	3.39
December 2000	2.89	2.96
January 2001	3.08	2.88
February 2001	3.26	2.85
March 2001	4.22	2.68
April 2001	3.51	2.89
May 2001	3.11	3.10
June 2001	3.33	3.01
July 2001	3.40	2.94
August 2001	3.56	2.74
September 2001	4.90	2.55
October 2001	4.02	2.31
November 2001	3.54	2.39
December 2001	3.53	2.85
January 2002	3.96	2.82
February 2002	4.19	2.74
March 2002	4.15	3.10
April 2002	4.45	2.99
May 2002	4.84	2.90
June 2002	5.57	2.66
July 2002	6.62	2.40
August 2002	6.39	2.04
September 2002	6.83	1.66
October 2002	6.75	1.80
November 2002	6.52	1.88
December 2002	6.41	1.86
January 2003	6.01	1.80
February 2003	6.69	1.64
March 2003	6.58	1.54
April 2003	6.57	1.66
May 2003	6.05	1.24
June 2003	5.44	1.01
July 2003	5.62	1.64
August 2003	5.78	2.14
September 2003	5.47	1.95
October 2003	5.44	1.95
November 2003	5.59	1.95
December 2003	5.37	1.91
January 2004	5.01	1.78
February 2004	4.96	1.72
March 2004	5.28	1.46
April 2004	5.37	2.00
May 2004	5.90	2.38
June 2004	5.63	2.38
July 2004	5.89	2.14
August 2004	6.09	1.93
September 2004	5.88	1.76
October 2004	6.00	1.74
November 2004	5.58	1.82
December 2004	5.47	1.84
January 2005	5.74	1.87
February 2005	5.59	1.80
March 2005	5.89	2.14
April 2005	6.00	1.92
May 2005	5.99	1.72
June 2005	5.90	1.57
July 2005	5.87	1.75
August 2005	6.06	1.84
September 2005	6.17	1.78
October 2005	6.54	2.06
November 2005	6.31	2.16
December 2005	5.99	2.07
January 2006	6.06	2.00
February 2006	6.13	2.16
March 2006	6.06	2.32
April 2006	6.06	2.57
May 2006	6.50	2.69
June 2006	6.94	2.68
July 2006	6.82	2.65
August 2006	6.66	2.44
September 2006	6.55	2.30
October 2006	6.26	2.30
November 2006	6.13	2.16
December 2006	6.10	2.13
January 2007	6.13	2.48
February 2007	6.07	2.45
March 2007	6.61	2.30
April 2007	6.08	2.37
May 2007	5.98	2.42
June 2007	6.14	2.77
July 2007	6.07	2.68
August 2007	7.06	2.40
September 2007	6.34	2.23
October 2007	6.30	2.23
November 2007	6.73	1.90
December 2007	6.75	1.87
January 2008	7.19	1.42
February 2008	7.35	1.45
March 2008	7.94	1.23
April 2008	7.65	1.39
May 2008	7.47	1.59
June 2008	8.12	1.81
July 2008	8.87	1.69
August 2008	8.44	1.56
September 2008	9.50	1.39
October 2008	11.51	1.76
November 2008	12.02	1.53
December 2008	10.44	0.43
January 2009	11.21	0.66
February 2009	11.11	0.99
March 2009	10.59	0.85
April 2009	9.88	0.75
May 2009	9.59	1.12
June 2009	9.60	1.55
July 2009	9.32	1.37
August 2009	8.69	1.38
September 2009	8.10	1.18
October 2009	8.21	1.37
November 2009	8.44	1.37
December 2009	8.42	1.52
January 2010	8.00	1.50
February 2010	8.79	1.46
March 2010	8.39	1.47
April 2010	8.22	1.54
May 2010	9.29	1.16
21 June 2010	9.38	1.01

* Off-the-run Treasury yield less Philadelphia Fed ten-year expected inflation. Return to table

Source: Thomson Financial.

Middle-right panel
Tri-party Repo Market Activity

Billions of dollars
Period	Agency and Treasury	Other fixed income	Other	Total
July 2008	1870.19	2342.72	4916.92	4916.92
August 2008	1908.17	2363.51	4980.31	4980.31
September 2008	1902.27	2321.81	4895.64	4895.64
October 2008	1908.78	2238.74	4728.04	4728.04
November 2008	1950.84	2220.64	4657.01	4657.01
December 2008	1847.28	2084.81	4355.47	4355.47
January 2009	1831.60	2048.08	4266.06	4266.06
February 2009	1851.30	2057.30	4292.27	4292.27
March 2009	1772.92	1966.99	4081.53	4081.53
April 2009	1644.29	1830.37	3809.32	3809.32
May 2009	1607.66	1794.55	3728.71	3728.71
June 2009	1483.52	1662.30	3458.45	3458.45
July 2009	1440.19	1608.83	3363.40	3363.40
August 2009	1443.82	1618.34	3390.09	3390.09
September 2009	1410.63	1593.72	3350.29	3350.29
October 2009	1349.50	1540.51	3244.14	3244.14
November 2009	1332.63	1535.86	3238.24	3238.24
December 2009	1292.73	1498.72	3162.54	3162.54
January 2010	1303.51	1515.88	3209.81	3209.81
February 2010	1385.76	1606.02	3391.53	3391.53
March 2010	1369.90	1588.15	3358.02	3358.02
April 2010	1336.57	1556.14	3294.73	3294.73
May 2010	1403.83	1618.25	3415.37	3415.37
11 June 2010	1409.36	1613.08	3386.20	3386.20

Source: FRBNY

Bottom panel
Total Debt Growth for Households and Nonfinancial Businesses

Four-quarter percent change
Period	Households	Nonfinancial businesses
1952:Q4	14.79	8.39
1953:Q1	16.39	8.39
1953:Q2	15.73	7.79
1953:Q3	14.94	6.90
1953:Q4	13.00	4.51
1954:Q1	10.13	4.25
1954:Q2	9.68	3.60
1954:Q3	9.39	4.04
1954:Q4	10.67	5.25
1955:Q1	13.57	5.35
1955:Q2	15.53	7.25
1955:Q3	17.74	7.71
1955:Q4	17.50	10.09
1956:Q1	16.01	11.04
1956:Q2	13.94	10.93
1956:Q3	11.71	10.82
1956:Q4	10.82	9.33
1957:Q1	10.20	9.17
1957:Q2	9.58	8.94
1957:Q3	9.17	8.54
1957:Q4	8.13	8.18
1958:Q1	6.51	7.46
1958:Q2	5.33	6.11
1958:Q3	5.25	6.06
1958:Q4	6.55	6.86
1959:Q1	8.51	7.02
1959:Q2	10.69	8.81
1959:Q3	12.15	9.04
1959:Q4	12.46	8.58
1960:Q1	11.73	9.08
1960:Q2	11.14	8.21
1960:Q3	9.95	7.58
1960:Q4	8.84	7.40
1961:Q1	8.31	6.62
1961:Q2	7.49	6.15
1961:Q3	7.25	6.59
1961:Q4	7.74	7.08
1962:Q1	8.18	7.50
1962:Q2	8.88	8.09
1962:Q3	9.48	8.39
1962:Q4	9.47	8.43
1963:Q1	9.81	8.61
1963:Q2	10.00	8.20
1963:Q3	10.36	8.05
1963:Q4	10.58	8.34
1964:Q1	11.05	8.26
1964:Q2	10.93	8.47
1964:Q3	10.72	8.80
1964:Q4	10.37	8.81
1965:Q1	10.20	9.66
1965:Q2	9.84	10.01
1965:Q3	9.68	10.40
1965:Q4	9.16	10.74
1966:Q1	9.03	11.13
1966:Q2	8.65	11.97
1966:Q3	7.70	11.89
1966:Q4	6.65	11.33
1967:Q1	5.53	10.47
1967:Q2	4.76	9.65
1967:Q3	4.92	9.52
1967:Q4	5.31	10.76
1968:Q1	6.51	9.85
1968:Q2	7.39	9.87
1968:Q3	7.84	10.21
1968:Q4	8.52	10.17
1969:Q1	7.78	11.15
1969:Q2	7.81	11.93
1969:Q3	7.71	12.18
1969:Q4	7.23	11.65
1970:Q1	5.38	12.47
1970:Q2	3.94	12.33
1970:Q3	3.27	12.09
1970:Q4	3.25	11.10
1971:Q1	5.36	10.37
1971:Q2	6.74	10.05
1971:Q3	7.79	10.08
1971:Q4	9.26	10.02
1972:Q1	9.85	10.66
1972:Q2	10.52	10.95
1972:Q3	10.81	11.06
1972:Q4	11.22	12.57
1973:Q1	12.47	13.92
1973:Q2	12.64	14.88
1973:Q3	12.92	15.93
1973:Q4	12.51	14.76
1974:Q1	10.84	13.88
1974:Q2	10.50	13.76
1974:Q3	9.90	12.94
1974:Q4	8.86	12.85
1975:Q1	8.02	10.82
1975:Q2	6.71	8.09
1975:Q3	6.58	6.27
1975:Q4	7.95	4.98
1976:Q1	9.34	5.16
1976:Q2	10.76	6.04
1976:Q3	11.25	6.96
1976:Q4	11.52	8.25
1977:Q1	12.41	9.90
1977:Q2	13.82	10.83
1977:Q3	15.17	11.47
1977:Q4	15.60	12.70
1978:Q1	15.79	12.56
1978:Q2	16.29	13.05
1978:Q3	16.49	13.00
1978:Q4	16.76	12.72
1979:Q1	17.11	12.78
1979:Q2	16.32	13.19
1979:Q3	15.84	13.86
1979:Q4	15.44	13.35
1980:Q1	14.52	13.07
1980:Q2	12.12	10.82
1980:Q3	10.46	9.33
1980:Q4	9.40	9.73
1981:Q1	7.91	9.06
1981:Q2	9.12	11.50
1981:Q3	8.81	12.95
1981:Q4	7.96	12.44
1982:Q1	7.42	12.69
1982:Q2	6.36	11.50
1982:Q3	4.70	10.63
1982:Q4	4.59	8.99
1983:Q1	3.90	9.19
1983:Q2	5.23	8.41
1983:Q3	8.09	8.57
1983:Q4	9.87	10.36
1984:Q1	12.15	11.54
1984:Q2	12.59	13.93
1984:Q3	12.30	14.92
1984:Q4	12.20	16.30
1985:Q1	14.81	14.81
1985:Q2	14.78	13.22
1985:Q3	16.05	11.84
1985:Q4	17.21	10.86
1986:Q1	14.00	10.82
1986:Q2	13.31	10.74
1986:Q3	12.68	11.30
1986:Q4	11.39	11.39
1987:Q1	10.48	11.13
1987:Q2	11.22	10.08
1987:Q3	10.32	9.43
1987:Q4	8.58	8.76
1988:Q1	9.73	8.85
1988:Q2	9.24	9.59
1988:Q3	9.19	9.37
1988:Q4	10.47	9.18
1989:Q1	9.87	8.81
1989:Q2	9.51	8.40
1989:Q3	9.39	7.36
1989:Q4	9.05	6.81
1990:Q1	9.61	6.20
1990:Q2	9.30	5.04
1990:Q3	8.79	4.80
1990:Q4	7.89	3.49
1991:Q1	6.56	1.27
1991:Q2	6.24	0.39
1991:Q3	5.25	-1.08
1991:Q4	5.27	-2.44
1992:Q1	5.25	-1.68
1992:Q2	4.51	-1.80
1992:Q3	5.10	-1.10
1992:Q4	5.33	-0.17
1993:Q1	4.86	-0.71
1993:Q2	5.64	-0.42
1993:Q3	6.01	-0.05
1993:Q4	6.04	0.57
1994:Q1	6.81	2.01
1994:Q2	6.99	2.78
1994:Q3	7.05	3.60
1994:Q4	7.64	4.07
1995:Q1	7.69	5.15
1995:Q2	7.66	6.48
1995:Q3	7.70	6.96
1995:Q4	6.83	7.83
1996:Q1	7.36	7.50
1996:Q2	7.31	7.21
1996:Q3	6.92	7.32
1996:Q4	6.94	6.57
1997:Q1	6.14	6.79
1997:Q2	5.87	7.18
1997:Q3	5.97	8.04
1997:Q4	5.81	9.89
1998:Q1	6.21	10.98
1998:Q2	6.96	11.87
1998:Q3	6.93	12.07
1998:Q4	7.77	11.66
1999:Q1	8.21	12.05
1999:Q2	8.06	10.96
1999:Q3	8.82	11.64
1999:Q4	8.34	11.38
2000:Q1	8.10	10.77
2000:Q2	8.50	11.59
2000:Q3	8.58	9.59
2000:Q4	9.24	9.32
2001:Q1	9.48	7.81
2001:Q2	9.71	6.74
2001:Q3	9.65	6.42
2001:Q4	9.62	5.46
2002:Q1	9.94	5.23
2002:Q2	9.82	4.01
2002:Q3	9.96	3.08
2002:Q4	10.77	2.75
2003:Q1	10.97	2.45
2003:Q2	11.81	2.63
2003:Q3	12.30	2.72
2003:Q4	12.03	2.66
2004:Q1	11.58	3.41
2004:Q2	11.23	3.68
2004:Q3	10.83	4.84
2004:Q4	11.20	6.25
2005:Q1	11.27	6.51
2005:Q2	11.17	7.57
2005:Q3	11.45	8.11
2005:Q4	11.10	8.66
2006:Q1	11.62	9.56
2006:Q2	11.60	10.02
2006:Q3	10.98	9.93
2006:Q4	10.10	10.53
2007:Q1	8.90	10.67
2007:Q2	7.85	11.54
2007:Q3	7.24	13.32
2007:Q4	6.75	13.14
2008:Q1	5.77	12.38
2008:Q2	3.87	10.59
2008:Q3	2.20	8.21
2008:Q4	0.30	5.39
2009:Q1	-0.82	3.21
2009:Q2	-1.23	0.80
2009:Q3	-1.78	-1.30
2009:Q4	-1.74	-2.44
2010:Q1	-1.87	-2.09
2010:Q2^e	-1.85	-1.05

[Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): July 1953-May 1954, August 1957-April 1958, April 1960-February 1961, December 1969-November 1970, November 1973-March 1975, January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, and March 2001-November 2001. A vertical line indicates the NBER Peak in December 2007.]

e Staff estimate. Return to table

Appendix 4: Materials used by Mr. English

Material for Briefing on
FOMC Participants' Economic Projections

Bill English
June 22-23, 2010

Class I FOMC - Restricted-Controlled (FR)

Exhibit 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2010-12 and over the longer run

Actual values for years 2005 through 2009.

Change in real GDP
Percent
	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	Longer Run
Actual	2.7	2.4	2.5	-1.9	0.1	-	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	3.8	4.5	5.0	3.0
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	3.5	4.2	4.5	2.8
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	3.0	3.5	3.5	2.5
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	2.9	2.9	2.8	2.4

Unemployment rate
Percent
	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	Longer Run
Actual	5.0	4.5	4.8	6.9	10.0	-	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	9.9	8.9	7.9	6.3
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	9.5	8.7	7.5	5.3
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	9.2	8.3	7.1	5.0
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	9.0	7.6	6.8	5.0

PCE inflation
Percent
	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	Longer Run
Actual	3.3	1.9	3.6	1.7	1.2	-	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	1.8	2.4	2.2	2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.1	1.6	1.7	2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.0	1.1	1.0	1.7
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	0.9	0.8	0.5	1.5

Core PCE inflation
Percent
	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Actual	2.3	2.3	2.5	2.0	1.5	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	1.5	2.4	2.2
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.0	1.3	1.5
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	0.8	0.9	1.0
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	0.7	0.6	0.4

Exhibit 2. Economic projections for 2010-2012 and over the longer run

Change in real GDP
	2010	2011	2012	Longer run
Central Tendency	3.0 to 3.5	3.5 to 4.2	3.5 to 4.5	2.5 to 2.8
April projections	3.2 to 3.7	3.4 to 4.5	3.5 to 4.5	2.5 to 2.8
Range	2.9 to 3.8	2.9 to 4.5	2.8 to 5.0	2.4 to 3.0
April projections	2.7 to 4.0	3.0 to 4.6	2.8 to 5.0	2.4 to 3.0
Memo: Tealbook	3.2	3.7	4.8	2.5
April Greenbook	3.5	4.4	4.7	2.5

Unemployment rate
	2010	2011	2012	Longer run
Central Tendency	9.2 to 9.5	8.3 to 8.7	7.1 to 7.5	5.0 to 5.3
April projections	9.1 to 9.5	8.1 to 8.5	6.6 to 7.5	5.0 to 5.3
Range	9.0 to 9.9	7.6 to 8.9	6.8 to 7.9	5.0 to 6.3
April projections	8.6 to 9.7	7.2 to 8.7	6.4 to 7.7	5.0 to 6.3
Memo: Tealbook	9.5	8.6	7.1	5.2
April Greenbook	9.3	8.2	6.7	5.2

PCE inflation
	2010	2011	2012	Longer run
Central Tendency	1.0 to 1.1	1.1 to 1.6	1.0 to 1.7	1.7 to 2.0
April projections	1.2 to 1.5	1.1 to 1.9	1.2 to 2.0	1.7 to 2.0
Range	0.9 to 1.8	0.8 to 2.4	0.5 to 2.2	1.5 to 2.0
April projections	1.1 to 2.0	0.9 to 2.4	0.7 to 2.2	1.5 to 2.0
Memo: Tealbook	0.9	1.0	1.0	2.0
April Greenbook	1.3	1.0	1.1	2.0

Core PCE inflation
	2010	2011	2012
Central Tendency	0.8 to 1.0	0.9 to 1.3	1.0 to 1.5
April projections	0.9 to 1.2	1.0 to 1.5	1.2 to 1.6
Range	0.7 to 1.5	0.6 to 2.4	0.4 to 2.2
April projections	0.7 to 1.6	0.6 to 2.4	0.6 to 2.2
Memo: Tealbook	0.8	0.8	1.0
April Greenbook	0.9	0.9	1.1

Exhibit 3. Risks and uncertainty in economic projections

Top-left panel
Uncertainty about GDP growth

Number of participants
	Lower	Similar	Higher
June projections	0	3	14
April projections	0	5	12

Top-right panel
Risks to GDP growth

Number of participants
	Downside	Balanced	Upside
June projections	9	8	0
April projections	0	14	3

Bottom-left panel
Uncertainty about PCE inflation

Number of participants
	Lower	Similar	Higher
June projections	1	3	13
April projections	1	3	13

Bottom-right panel
Risks to PCE inflation

Number of participants
	Downside	Balanced	Upside
June projections	4	12	1
April projections	2	13	2

Appendix 5: Materials used by Mr. Stockton

The Market for New Single-Family Homes

	2009	2009		2010	2010
	2009	Q3	Q4	Q1	Mar.	Apr.	May
Sales¹
Total	375	401	373	362	389	446	300
Previous				375	439	504
Percent Change	-22.7	9.0	-7.0	-2.9	12.1	14.7	-32.7
By region
Northeast	31	38	34	35	33	42	28
Midwest	54	59	59	53	54	67	51
South	202	204	195	188	209	228	170
West	87	100	85	86	93	109	51
Inventories
New homes for sale²	231	252	231	228	228	214	213
Months' supply³	9.0	7.8	7.6	7.7	7.0	5.8	8.5
Prices
Mean (thousands of dollars)⁴	270.9	273.9	271.3	283.4	267.9	260.0	258.8
Year-to-year percent change⁵	-7.4	-3.8	-1.5	8.1	1.6	-1.8	-4.5
One-period percent change (annual rate for quarters, monthly rate for months)	-7.4	6.9	-3.7	19.1	-5.0	-3.0	-.4
Constant-quality price index⁶
Year-to-year percent change⁵	-4.4	-5.9	.6	2.6	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
One-period percent change (annual rate for quarters)	-4.4	-2.5	9.3	2.8	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.

1. Thousands of units, s.a.a.r., except where noted. Percent change is from previous comparable period, not at an annual rate. Return to table

2. Thousands of units, seasonally adjusted, end of period stock. Return to table

3. At current sales rate; expressed as the ratio of s.a. inventories to s.a. sales. Quarterly and annual values are averages of monthly values. Return to table

4. Quarterly and annual values of mean prices are equal to a weighted average of monthly data; the weights are based on the response rate to the survey in each month. Seasonally adjusted by FRB staff. Return to table

5. Year-to-year percent changes are from the year-earlier comparable period. Return to table

6. Based on characteristics of new homes sold in 2005. Seasonally adjusted by FRB staff. Return to table

s.a.a.r. Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

s.a. Seasonally adjusted.

n.a. Not available. Return to table

Source: Census Bureau.

Bottom-left panel
New Home Sales

Data plotted as a curve. The period covered is from January 1997 through May 2010, and the data are in millions of units. As shown in the figure, new home sales were relatively flat from 1999 through 2002, at which point they increased until their peak in mid-2005. New home sales fell drastically from 2006 through about 2008, and have remained more or less flat at a low level since the end of 2008. The most recent month of data (May 2010) shows a 32.7% decrease in new home sales from the previous month (April 2010).

Source: Census Bureau.

Bottom-right panel
Inventories of New Homes and Months' Supply

Data plotted as curves. The period covered is from January 2001 through May 2010. The chart shows two curves, plotted on different scales. The left scale shows inventories of new homes in thousands of units. Inventories rose from the beginning of 2001 to mid-2006, and have fallen drastically since then. The most recent month of data (May 2010) is the lowest level of inventories during the time period shown. The right scale shows months' supply of new homes, and the units are number of months. Months' supply was relatively flat from 2001 through mid-2005 at a level of about 4 months. From there it increased to its peak of about 11 months at the end of 2008. The months' supply has fallen since the end of 2008, but remains elevated compared to its level in the early 2000s.

Note: Months' supply is calculated using the 3-month moving average of sales.

Source: Census Bureau.

Appendix 6: Materials used by Mr. Madigan

Material for Briefing on Monetary Policy Alternatives

Brian Madigan
June 23, 2010

Class I FOMC - Restricted Controlled (FR)

Table 1: Overview of Alternatives for the June 23 FOMC Statement

	April Statement	June Alternatives
	April Statement	A	B	C
Economic Activity
Recent Developments	has continued to strengthen	has continued to strengthen gradually	has continued to strengthen
Labor Market	is beginning to improve; high unemployment; employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls	is improving slowly; high unemployment; employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls	is improving gradually; high unemployment; employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls	has continued to improve
Outlook	gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization; recovery likely to be moderate for a time	gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization; near-term outlook has weakened somewhat	gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization; recovery likely to be moderate for a time	sustainable recovery under way; gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization
Financial Conditions
Recent Developments	bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth	financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance; bank lending continues to contract	financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance; bank lending has continued to contract in recent months	financial market conditions have become somewhat less supportive of growth on balance
Inflation
Recent Developments	substantial slack is restraining cost pressures; stable inflation expectations	Prices of energy and other commodities have declined somewhat in recent months; underlying inflation has trended lower; substantial slack is restraining cost pressures; stable inflation expectations		underlying inflation has trended lower; stable inflation expectations
Outlook	likely to be subdued for some time	likely to be quite subdued for some time, remaining below rates consistent with dual mandate	likely to be subdued for some time	subdued rates of inflation anticipated
Federal Funds Rate Target
Intermeeting Period	0 to ¼ percent	0 to ¼ percent
Forward Guidance	economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for an extended period	economic conditions will warrant exceptionally low levels for an extended period, until resource utilization and inflation clearly moving toward mandate-consistent levels	economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for an extended period	economic conditions are likely to warrant low levels for some time
Reinvestment of SOMA Assets
Approach	allow agency debt and MBS to roll off but roll over maturing Treasuries (nothing in statement)	roll over agency MBS as well as Treasuries; allow agency debt to roll off (not in statement)	allow agency debt and MBS to roll off but roll over maturing Treasuries (nothing in statement)	allow Treasuries as well as agency debt and MBS to roll off

April FOMC Statement

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is beginning to improve. Growth in household spending has picked up recently but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly; however, investment in nonresidential structures is declining and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts have edged up but remain at a depressed level. While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth. Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.
With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longerterm inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.
In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve has closed all but one of the special liquidity facilities that it created to support markets during the crisis. The only remaining such program, the Term Asset- Backed Securities Loan Facility, is scheduled to close on June 30 for loans backed by new-issue commercial mortgage-backed securities; it closed on March 31 for loans backed by all other types of collateral.

[Note: In the June FOMC Statement Alternatives, strong emphasis (bold) indicates bold red underlined text in the original document.]

June FOMC Statement--Alternative A

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen gradually and that the labor market is improving slowly. Household spending is increasing but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software appears to be rising at a robust pace; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad, and bank lending continues to contract. Although the Committee still anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, the near-term outlook for economic activity has weakened somewhat.
Prices of energy and other commodities have declined somewhat in recent months, and underlying inflation has trended lower. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be quite subdued for some time, remaining below rates that would be consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, will warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. The Committee expects to maintain the current range for the federal funds rate until resource utilization and underlying inflation are clearly moving toward rates consistent with the dual mandate. In addition, to provide continued support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to aid overall conditions in private credit markets, the Committee will maintain holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities in the System Open Market Account at approximately their current level rather than allowing them to run off. The Committee will also continue to roll over maturing Treasury securities.
The Committee will continue to evaluate its holdings of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.

June FOMC Statement--Alternative B

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is improving gradually. Household spending is increasing but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software appears to be rising at a robust pace; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad. Bank lending has continued to contract in recent months. Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time.
Prices of energy and other commodities have declined somewhat in recent months, and underlying inflation has trended lower. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.
The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.

June FOMC Statement--Alternative C

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market has continued to improve. Household spending is increasing, and business spending on equipment and software is rising at a robust pace. Underlying inflation has trended lower, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Although financial market conditions have become somewhat less supportive of growth on balance in recent weeks, the Committee believes that a sustainable economic recovery is under way and anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization with subdued rates of inflation.
The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and anticipates that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant low levels of the federal funds rate for some time. As a step toward normalizing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and the level of reserves in the banking system, on August 3 the Committee will stop reinvesting the proceeds of maturing Treasury securities; the Committee will maintain its approach of not reinvesting the proceeds of maturing agency debt and payments on mortgage-backed securities held by the System Open Market Account. The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.

April 2010 FOMC Directive

[Note: In the June 2010 FOMC Directive Alternatives, strong emphasis (bold) indicates bold red underlined text in the original document.]

June 2010 FOMC Directive -- Alternative A

The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to ¼ percent. The Committee directs the Desk to purchase agency mortgage-backed securities during the intermeeting period to maintain the total face value of the System Open Market Account's holdings of such securities at approximately its current level, with the aim of providing support to private credit markets and economic activity. The Committee directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions. The Committee directs the Desk to maintain its practice of allowing all maturing agency debt to be redeemed without replacement. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability.

June 2010 FOMC Directive -- Alternative B

June 2010 FOMC Directive -- Alternative C

The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to ¼ percent. The Committee directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions. To gradually reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet over time, the Committee directs the Desk to not reinvest the proceeds of maturing Treasury securities held by the System Open Market Account, effective August 3, 2010, and to maintain its practice of not reinvesting the proceeds of maturing agency debt and payments on agency mortgage-backed securities held by the System Open Market Account. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability.

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Meeting of the Federal Open Market CommitteeJune 22-23, 2010 Presentation Materials

Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Sack

Exhibit 1

Top-left panel(1)

Top-right panel(2)

Middle-left panel(3)

Middle-right panel(4)

Bottom-left panel(5)

Bottom-right panel(6)

Exhibit 2

Top-left panel(7)

Top-right panel(8)

Middle-left panel(9)

Middle-right panel(10)

Bottom-left panel(11) Potential Outcomes in Europe Over the Next 5 Years

Bottom-right panel(12)

Exhibit 3

Top-left panel(13)

Top-right panel(14)

Middle-left panel(15)

Middle-right panel(16)

Bottom-left panel(17)

Bottom-right panel(18)

Appendix 2: Materials used by Mr. Sack

Exhibit 1

Top-left panel(1)

Top-right panel(2)

Bottom panel(3) Treasury Portfolio Metrics Under Different Options

Appendix 3: Materials used by Messrs. Wascher and Erceg and Ms. Liang

Exhibit 1Recent Indicators

Top-left panelChange in Private Payroll Employment

[Inset:] Unemployment rate, percent

Top-right panelManufacturing IP

[Inset:] Monthly percent change

Middle-left panelReal PCE

[Inset:] Percent change, a.r.

Middle-right panelSingle-family Home Sales

Bottom-left panelNondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft

Bottom-right panelNear-term GDP Projection

Exhibit 2Medium-term Outlook

Top-left panelChanges in Key Background Factors

Top-right panelReal GDP and Selected Components

Middle-left panelReal PCE

Middle-right panelReal Equipment and Software Investment

Bottom-left panelSingle-family Housing Starts

Bottom-right panelReal Nonresidential Structures Investment

Exhibit 3Labor Markets and Inflation

Top-left panelPrivate Payroll Employment

Top-right panelUnemployment Rate and the NAIRU

Middle-left panelPCE Price Index

[Inset:] Percent change

Middle-right panelCore Nonfuel Import Prices

Bottom-left panelLong-term Inflation Expectations

Bottom-right panelPCE Price Projections

Exhibit 4Sectoral Reallocation and the NAIRU

Top-left panelIndustry Reallocation

Top-right panelGeographic Reallocation

Middle-left panelPermanent Job Losers

Middle-right panelMigration Rate

Bottom-left panelBeveridge Curve, 2001-10

Bottom-right panelJob Matching

Exhibit 5Long-term Unemployment and Hysteresis

Top-left panelLong-term Unemployment Rate

Top-right panelSources of Rising Long-term Unemployment

Middle-left panelUnemployment Rate in the U.S. and Euro Area

Middle-right panelU.S. vs. Euro Area: Historical Evidence

Bottom-left panelJob Finding Rates by Unemployment Duration

Bottom-right panelPotential Consequences of Long-term Unemployment

Exhibit 6Financial Markets

Top panelEuropean Ten-year Government Debt Spreads*

Middle-left panelEuropean Rescue Plan

Middle-right panelAnnounced Fiscal Consolidation*

Bottom-left panelDebt Projections*

Bottom-right panelKey Assumptions Underlying Outlook

Exhibit 7Euro Area

Top-left panelReal GDP

Top-right panelContributions to GDP

Middle-left panelRetail Sales

Middle-center panelExchange Rates

Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee
June 22-23, 2010 Presentation Materials

Top-left panel
(1)

Top-right panel
(2)

Middle-left panel
(3)

Middle-right panel
(4)

Bottom-left panel
(5)

Bottom-right panel
(6)

Top-left panel
(7)

Top-right panel
(8)

Middle-left panel
(9)

Middle-right panel
(10)

Bottom-left panel
(11) Potential Outcomes in Europe Over the Next 5 Years

Bottom-right panel
(12)

Top-left panel
(13)

Top-right panel
(14)

Middle-left panel
(15)

Middle-right panel
(16)

Bottom-left panel
(17)

Bottom-right panel
(18)

Top-left panel
(1)

Top-right panel
(2)

Bottom panel
(3) Treasury Portfolio Metrics Under Different Options

Exhibit 1
Recent Indicators

Top-left panel
Change in Private Payroll Employment

Top-right panel
Manufacturing IP

Middle-left panel
Real PCE

Middle-right panel
Single-family Home Sales

Bottom-left panel
Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft

Bottom-right panel
Near-term GDP Projection

Exhibit 2
Medium-term Outlook

Top-left panel
Changes in Key Background Factors

Top-right panel
Real GDP and Selected Components

Middle-left panel
Real PCE

Middle-right panel
Real Equipment and Software Investment

Bottom-left panel
Single-family Housing Starts

Bottom-right panel
Real Nonresidential Structures Investment

Exhibit 3
Labor Markets and Inflation

Top-left panel
Private Payroll Employment

Top-right panel
Unemployment Rate and the NAIRU

Middle-left panel
PCE Price Index

Middle-right panel
Core Nonfuel Import Prices

Bottom-left panel
Long-term Inflation Expectations

Bottom-right panel
PCE Price Projections

Exhibit 4
Sectoral Reallocation and the NAIRU

Top-left panel
Industry Reallocation

Top-right panel
Geographic Reallocation

Middle-left panel
Permanent Job Losers

Middle-right panel
Migration Rate

Bottom-left panel
Beveridge Curve, 2001-10

Bottom-right panel
Job Matching

Exhibit 5
Long-term Unemployment and Hysteresis

Top-left panel
Long-term Unemployment Rate

Top-right panel
Sources of Rising Long-term Unemployment

Middle-left panel
Unemployment Rate in the U.S. and Euro Area

Middle-right panel
U.S. vs. Euro Area: Historical Evidence

Bottom-left panel
Job Finding Rates by Unemployment Duration

Bottom-right panel
Potential Consequences of Long-term Unemployment

Exhibit 6
Financial Markets

Top panel
European Ten-year Government Debt Spreads*

Middle-left panel
European Rescue Plan

Middle-right panel
Announced Fiscal Consolidation*

Bottom-left panel
Debt Projections*

Bottom-right panel
Key Assumptions Underlying Outlook

Exhibit 7
Euro Area

Top-left panel
Real GDP

Top-right panel
Contributions to GDP

Middle-left panel
Retail Sales

Middle-center panel
Exchange Rates

Middle-right panel
Policy Rate

Bottom-left panel
Inflation

Bottom-center panel
Industrial Production

Bottom-right panel
Unemployment

Exhibit 8
Foreign Economic Indicator Indexes

Top panel
Real GDP*

Middle-left panel
Consumption Indicators

Middle-center panel
Policy Rates

Middle-right panel
Industrial Production

Bottom-left panel
Imports

Bottom-right panel
Flows to EME Funds

Exhibit 9
The U.S. External Sector