Accessible Version

Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee
January 25-26, 2011 Presentation Materials

Presentation Materials (PDF)

Pages 231 to 282 of the Transcript

Appendix 1: Materials used by Messrs. Fallick and Faberman, and Ms. Şahin

Material for
FOMC Briefing on Structural Unemployment

Bruce Fallick, Jason Faberman, and Aysegul Sahin
January 25, 2011

Class II FOMC - Restricted (FR)

Exhibit 1
Causes for Concern

Top panel
Categories of Unemployment

  • Structural or frictional unemployment reflects difficulties in matching available workers to available jobs.
    • Demographics.
    • The technology of job search and worker screening.
    • Imbalances between the characteristics or locations of potential workers and vacant jobs.
  • Cyclical unemployment is due to a shortfall in aggregate economic activity.
  • Inflation is most sensitive to cyclical unemployment.
  • The line between these categories is often blurry.

Middle-left panel
Payroll Employment

Thousands
Period Financial Activities Residential Construction
January 20007674ND
February 20007674ND
March 20007672ND
April 20007667ND
May 20007666ND
June 20007671ND
July 20007669ND
August 20007680ND
September 20007699ND
October 20007712ND
November 20007726ND
December 20007743ND
January 200177552601.0
February 200177762612.4
March 200177952619.2
April 200178002615.7
May 200178092631.5
June 200178112636.3
July 200177992637.5
August 200178242639.9
September 200178262639.9
October 200178292641.4
November 200178432644.1
December 200178352649.0
January 200278402644.7
February 200278292656.1
March 200278252673.1
April 200278292670.0
May 200278242675.1
June 200278272675.9
July 200278302683.1
August 200278382699.5
September 200278582713.9
October 200278782716.8
November 200278902741.5
December 200279052736.7
January 200379132737.6
February 200379292734.1
March 200379422743.8
April 200379712762.7
May 200379882772.3
June 200379852795.4
July 200380012807.7
August 200380052827.2
September 200380082844.0
October 200379952860.8
November 200379902882.7
December 200379832897.5
January 200479842921.3
February 200479892929.8
March 200479982954.5
April 200480112964.7
May 200480342989.3
June 200480393008.9
July 200480273029.2
August 200480363047.6
September 200480553065.0
October 200480533090.2
November 200480603103.1
December 200480833127.7
January 200580913116.9
February 200580973156.8
March 200580953176.5
April 200581033208.4
May 200581083236.2
June 200581273252.2
July 200581483267.6
August 200581723284.2
September 200581823310.9
October 200582183343.9
November 200582433370.9
December 200582503395.3
January 200682703422.0
February 200682963446.5
March 200683163445.5
April 200683393450.5
May 200683403442.8
June 200683253424.5
July 200683263408.9
August 200683333414.5
September 200683503385.5
October 200683433347.0
November 200683483341.2
December 200683523335.2
January 200783463322.6
February 200783483285.7
March 200783383303.5
April 200783203292.5
May 200783263284.2
June 200783193277.3
July 200783223262.2
August 200782953217.7
September 200782683175.9
October 200782573134.4
November 200782343096.1
December 200782273061.9
January 200882183029.2
February 200882082997.2
March 200882082968.5
April 200882022930.9
May 200881932881.7
June 200881762844.4
July 200881612805.4
August 200881432765.4
September 200881102729.8
October 200880732676.2
November 200880292594.5
December 200880002551.5
January 200979452480.6
February 200978942424.0
March 200978522361.9
April 200978052305.4
May 200977732288.8
June 200977422251.9
July 200977192224.2
August 200976952202.8
September 200976832185.5
October 200976642172.0
November 200976662169.2
December 200976572167.1
January 201076352150.3
February 201076282139.6
March 201076092133.2
April 201076112132.0
May 201076022126.6
June 201075912119.1
July 201075812104.1
August 201075782099.1
September 201075822096.9
October 201075852088.6
November 201075812088.7
December 201075852086.9

Middle-right panel
Dispersion in Major Industry Employment Change

Percent
Period Idiosyncratic dispersion Cyclical dispersion
1970:Q1-0.371.77
1970:Q2-0.945.62
1970:Q3-0.358.55
1970:Q43.5212.66
1971:Q11.769.45
1971:Q23.154.48
1971:Q34.441.77
1971:Q40.740.65
1972:Q11.62-0.25
1972:Q2-0.130.09
1972:Q3-0.59-0.12
1972:Q41.15-1.00
1973:Q10.520.03
1973:Q20.220.10
1973:Q3-0.661.47
1973:Q4-1.070.59
1974:Q1-1.190.12
1974:Q2-1.121.09
1974:Q3-0.313.68
1974:Q4-0.4210.12
1975:Q15.2821.61
1975:Q27.2727.68
1975:Q36.9421.58
1975:Q42.9510.69
1976:Q10.690.26
1976:Q2-0.350.33
1976:Q30.51-0.64
1976:Q40.79-1.05
1977:Q1-0.12-0.11
1977:Q2-0.330.48
1977:Q3-0.160.66
1977:Q40.480.29
1978:Q10.04-0.70
1978:Q20.92-0.74
1978:Q31.83-0.52
1978:Q41.62-0.25
1979:Q12.08-0.49
1979:Q20.85-0.04
1979:Q3-0.260.20
1979:Q4-0.240.44
1980:Q10.181.25
1980:Q20.306.94
1980:Q31.059.61
1980:Q4-0.016.94
1981:Q10.814.75
1981:Q21.80-0.19
1981:Q34.75-0.86
1981:Q42.651.65
1982:Q11.623.63
1982:Q21.757.79
1982:Q31.9610.09
1982:Q43.1711.81
1983:Q12.899.33
1983:Q22.624.95
1983:Q31.521.14
1983:Q40.622.05
1984:Q11.173.55
1984:Q21.783.55
1984:Q32.001.24
1984:Q43.72-1.72
1985:Q14.60-2.84
1985:Q25.85-2.21
1985:Q36.82-1.76
1985:Q46.65-1.63
1986:Q16.71-2.21
1986:Q27.60-2.02
1986:Q37.35-1.43
1986:Q45.85-0.56
1987:Q14.320.15
1987:Q21.460.46
1987:Q30.100.30
1987:Q4-0.25-0.23
1988:Q10.07-0.54
1988:Q20.74-1.19
1988:Q31.53-1.19
1988:Q42.32-1.30
1989:Q12.07-1.02
1989:Q22.11-0.93
1989:Q32.39-1.44
1989:Q41.34-0.47
1990:Q11.37-0.22
1990:Q20.750.76
1990:Q30.841.36
1990:Q4-0.263.05
1991:Q10.736.56
1991:Q20.686.89
1991:Q3-0.226.96
1991:Q40.095.57
1992:Q1-0.043.56
1992:Q20.571.69
1992:Q32.31-0.19
1992:Q42.26-1.01
1993:Q11.53-0.93
1993:Q21.78-0.85
1993:Q31.15-0.15
1993:Q40.960.05
1994:Q10.550.13
1994:Q20.730.21
1994:Q30.920.29
1994:Q41.160.21
1995:Q12.030.13
1995:Q21.60-0.10
1995:Q31.26-0.08
1995:Q40.92-0.16
1996:Q10.42-0.04
1996:Q20.970.07
1996:Q31.12-0.05
1996:Q41.12-0.07
1997:Q11.50-0.10
1997:Q21.91-0.12
1997:Q31.89-0.14
1997:Q41.550.00
1998:Q11.250.18
1998:Q20.720.17
1998:Q31.030.06
1998:Q41.930.09
1999:Q13.20-0.43
1999:Q24.04-0.62
1999:Q33.30-0.39
1999:Q43.14-0.38
2000:Q12.30-0.24
2000:Q21.70-0.52
2000:Q30.74-0.35
2000:Q40.15-0.22
2001:Q1-0.070.41
2001:Q20.691.51
2001:Q32.244.30
2001:Q45.057.23
2002:Q16.617.92
2002:Q24.566.52
2002:Q33.464.06
2002:Q41.702.98
2003:Q11.372.35
2003:Q21.702.18
2003:Q31.981.57
2003:Q41.960.38
2004:Q11.97-0.64
2004:Q21.44-0.75
2004:Q30.59-0.40
2004:Q40.47-0.22
2005:Q10.53-0.17
2005:Q21.01-0.13
2005:Q31.44-0.27
2005:Q41.30-0.06
2006:Q11.640.24
2006:Q21.330.04
2006:Q30.820.00
2006:Q40.52-0.15
2007:Q1-0.090.38
2007:Q20.030.43
2007:Q3-0.060.73
2007:Q40.330.47
2008:Q10.810.39
2008:Q21.301.14
2008:Q30.963.32
2008:Q40.567.51
2009:Q11.7214.75
2009:Q21.6121.32
2009:Q31.9621.26
2009:Q42.3915.92
2010:Q11.636.90
2010:Q21.611.23
2010:Q31.58-0.46
2010:Q41.41-0.16

Bottom-left panel
Percent of Mortgages with Negative Equity

Period Percent
20060.92
20073.78
200813.64
200920.71
201019.75

Note. Negative equity percentage likely understated because of incomplete data on junior liens.

Bottom-right panel
Permanent Job Losers

Percent of employment
Period Stock Rate
January 19701.01ND
February 19701.12ND
March 19701.18ND
April 19701.25ND
May 19701.47ND
June 19701.42ND
July 19701.43ND
August 19701.62ND
September 19701.59ND
October 19701.71ND
November 19701.83ND
December 19701.95ND
January 19711.98ND
February 19712.01ND
March 19711.92ND
April 19712.00ND
May 19712.06ND
June 19712.04ND
July 19712.09ND
August 19712.08ND
September 19711.92ND
October 19711.93ND
November 19712.04ND
December 19711.95ND
January 19721.95ND
February 19721.86ND
March 19721.90ND
April 19721.80ND
May 19722.00ND
June 19721.87ND
July 19721.86ND
August 19722.00ND
September 19721.89ND
October 19721.81ND
November 19721.68ND
December 19721.68ND
January 19731.57ND
February 19731.48ND
March 19731.43ND
April 19731.42ND
May 19731.31ND
June 19731.49ND
July 19731.41ND
August 19731.38ND
September 19731.47ND
October 19731.32ND
November 19731.42ND
December 19731.49ND
January 19741.63ND
February 19741.54ND
March 19741.52ND
April 19741.56ND
May 19741.55ND
June 19741.56ND
July 19741.62ND
August 19741.67ND
September 19741.81ND
October 19741.86ND
November 19742.12ND
December 19742.32ND
January 19752.87ND
February 19752.85ND
March 19753.01ND
April 19753.12ND
May 19753.35ND
June 19753.27ND
July 19753.36ND
August 19753.32ND
September 19753.42ND
October 19753.20ND
November 19753.27ND
December 19753.06ND
January 19763.13ND
February 19762.92ND
March 19762.99ND
April 19762.91ND
May 19762.85ND
June 19763.010.66
July 19762.990.78
August 19762.910.70
September 19762.840.76
October 19762.930.74
November 19762.970.73
December 19762.970.72
January 19772.800.76
February 19772.790.70
March 19772.660.74
April 19772.540.73
May 19772.500.68
June 19772.430.72
July 19772.380.69
August 19772.440.71
September 19772.430.69
October 19772.310.65
November 19772.370.68
December 19772.190.65
January 19782.170.65
February 19782.070.69
March 19782.070.67
April 19782.060.68
May 19782.000.68
June 19781.850.62
July 19781.950.67
August 19781.870.62
September 19781.780.59
October 19781.910.66
November 19781.740.62
December 19781.850.66
January 19791.810.60
February 19791.840.62
March 19791.800.60
April 19791.770.61
May 19791.690.58
June 19791.620.62
July 19791.810.59
August 19791.820.66
September 19791.830.60
October 19791.930.64
November 19791.850.65
December 19791.880.63
January 19802.070.69
February 19802.000.65
March 19802.060.68
April 19802.270.73
May 19802.440.83
June 19802.480.75
July 19802.730.80
August 19802.710.83
September 19802.700.78
October 19802.670.74
November 19802.840.75
December 19802.770.75
January 19812.720.72
February 19812.780.77
March 19812.630.78
April 19812.600.76
May 19812.680.81
June 19812.800.86
July 19812.650.77
August 19812.840.79
September 19812.970.86
October 19812.890.85
November 19813.060.90
December 19813.290.96
January 19823.481.01
February 19823.480.99
March 19823.771.03
April 19823.910.99
May 19823.981.03
June 19824.121.07
July 19824.251.00
August 19824.181.03
September 19824.371.12
October 19824.831.20
November 19824.931.11
December 19824.831.03
January 19834.730.91
February 19834.851.01
March 19834.900.97
April 19834.780.95
May 19834.840.95
June 19834.680.96
July 19834.420.98
August 19834.400.95
September 19834.251.06
October 19834.050.96
November 19833.810.85
December 19833.660.89
January 19843.490.87
February 19843.370.87
March 19843.250.88
April 19843.240.85
May 19842.990.71
June 19842.910.72
July 19843.130.90
August 19842.900.82
September 19842.900.82
October 19842.960.83
November 19842.930.83
December 19842.970.85
January 19852.910.87
February 19852.840.82
March 19852.800.84
April 19852.790.82
May 19852.660.71
June 19852.800.83
July 19852.960.87
August 19852.810.87
September 19852.720.79
October 19852.700.78
November 19852.720.79
December 19852.650.76
January 19862.440.73
February 19862.760.81
March 19862.810.79
April 19862.690.82
May 19862.810.84
June 19862.930.82
July 19862.720.78
August 19862.590.76
September 19862.730.79
October 19862.670.78
November 19862.600.73
December 19862.540.78
January 19872.560.77
February 19872.540.74
March 19872.530.75
April 19872.440.71
May 19872.370.69
June 19872.400.63
July 19872.310.69
August 19872.220.69
September 19872.200.64
October 19872.230.68
November 19872.120.66
December 19872.030.64
January 19882.000.61
February 19882.010.59
March 19881.990.56
April 19881.810.61
May 19882.110.72
June 19881.960.63
July 19881.950.60
August 19881.930.60
September 19881.950.65
October 19881.860.60
November 19881.890.64
December 19881.920.64
January 19891.930.66
February 19891.790.67
March 19891.760.60
April 19891.790.65
May 19891.670.59
June 19891.700.61
July 19891.790.60
August 19891.780.58
September 19891.780.60
October 19891.900.66
November 19891.830.62
December 19891.830.63
January 19901.800.56
February 19901.780.64
March 19901.810.65
April 19901.850.67
May 19901.840.64
June 19901.900.65
July 19901.930.66
August 19902.080.76
September 19902.080.64
October 19902.210.69
November 19902.330.81
December 19902.320.70
January 19912.580.77
February 19912.560.74
March 19912.810.78
April 19912.740.75
May 19912.820.79
June 19912.910.78
July 19913.010.78
August 19912.950.85
September 19913.120.84
October 19913.030.81
November 19913.080.82
December 19913.230.87
January 19923.230.75
February 19923.470.82
March 19923.510.85
April 19923.480.78
May 19923.690.87
June 19923.650.85
July 19923.580.79
August 19923.530.78
September 19923.400.80
October 19923.530.84
November 19923.420.75
December 19923.310.74
January 19933.330.75
February 19933.190.75
March 19933.230.74
April 19933.280.88
May 19933.050.68
June 19933.180.70
July 19933.130.73
August 19933.060.71
September 19932.960.68
October 19932.920.69
November 19932.880.65
December 19932.810.75
January 19942.620.71
February 19942.560.55
March 19942.530.62
April 19942.380.65
May 19942.240.51
June 19942.280.63
July 19942.290.65
August 19942.180.63
September 19942.230.61
October 19942.180.55
November 19942.120.58
December 19941.990.57
January 19952.030.59
February 19951.890.47
March 19951.890.60
April 19951.950.54
May 19952.070.59
June 19951.890.59
July 19951.920.56
August 19951.920.57
September 19952.010.62
October 19951.990.59
November 19951.980.61
December 19951.970.55
January 19961.950.54
February 19961.980.59
March 19961.960.50
April 19962.050.57
May 19961.860.58
June 19961.860.53
July 19961.860.53
August 19961.680.49
September 19961.740.47
October 19961.730.47
November 19961.820.56
December 19961.720.52
January 19971.770.56
February 19971.720.52
March 19971.680.50
April 19971.610.45
May 19971.580.48
June 19971.680.56
July 19971.560.39
August 19971.640.49
September 19971.620.49
October 19971.480.50
November 19971.590.48
December 19971.580.50
January 19981.520.51
February 19981.520.52
March 19981.510.53
April 19981.490.55
May 19981.530.53
June 19981.500.52
July 19981.440.52
August 19981.460.51
September 19981.470.51
October 19981.480.53
November 19981.480.49
December 19981.480.58
January 19991.390.47
February 19991.410.50
March 19991.320.50
April 19991.380.55
May 19991.380.50
June 19991.330.51
July 19991.380.51
August 19991.320.53
September 19991.250.52
October 19991.290.53
November 19991.240.43
December 19991.220.53
January 20001.300.51
February 20001.320.48
March 20001.250.52
April 20001.160.43
May 20001.160.48
June 20001.070.45
July 20001.180.49
August 20001.260.48
September 20001.210.52
October 20001.200.44
November 20001.180.44
December 20001.190.43
January 20011.290.45
February 20011.410.60
March 20011.480.53
April 20011.490.62
May 20011.530.63
June 20011.670.66
July 20011.720.53
August 20011.770.64
September 20011.800.68
October 20012.200.74
November 20012.410.77
December 20012.450.71
January 20022.460.77
February 20022.430.74
March 20022.460.71
April 20022.560.66
May 20022.580.64
June 20022.610.66
July 20022.520.62
August 20022.500.68
September 20022.540.66
October 20022.620.65
November 20022.680.71
December 20022.680.67
January 20032.630.69
February 20032.660.67
March 20032.630.66
April 20032.670.67
May 20032.800.70
June 20032.780.69
July 20032.790.67
August 20032.830.73
September 20032.770.62
October 20032.700.63
November 20032.600.59
December 20032.500.63
January 20042.420.59
February 20042.330.56
March 20042.560.60
April 20042.410.62
May 20042.330.62
June 20042.240.58
July 20042.270.63
August 20042.150.60
September 20042.220.65
October 20042.240.63
November 20042.220.60
December 20042.190.62
January 20052.180.57
February 20052.100.59
March 20052.010.48
April 20051.990.57
May 20051.930.55
June 20051.880.56
July 20051.860.57
August 20051.790.53
September 20051.910.59
October 20051.830.58
November 20051.840.51
December 20051.790.51
January 20061.740.53
February 20061.730.49
March 20061.730.56
April 20061.820.56
May 20061.760.53
June 20061.630.56
July 20061.650.53
August 20061.650.51
September 20061.620.50
October 20061.500.46
November 20061.570.49
December 20061.560.57
January 20071.630.50
February 20071.610.52
March 20071.580.46
April 20071.610.46
May 20071.640.49
June 20071.710.52
July 20071.820.51
August 20071.830.57
September 20071.830.54
October 20071.830.53
November 20071.840.53
December 20071.990.58
January 20081.890.53
February 20081.980.58
March 20082.080.62
April 20082.020.53
May 20082.180.74
June 20082.260.61
July 20082.380.61
August 20082.550.73
September 20082.710.68
October 20083.050.81
November 20083.350.89
December 20083.600.82
January 20094.171.14
February 20094.610.95
March 20094.890.95
April 20095.130.96
May 20095.420.97
June 20095.580.89
July 20095.550.87
August 20095.760.82
September 20095.870.83
October 20096.050.90
November 20095.950.74
December 20095.910.82
January 20105.660.77
February 20105.730.68
March 20105.610.66
April 20105.650.72
May 20105.560.68
June 20105.530.73
July 20105.630.82
August 20105.590.72
September 20105.700.87
October 20105.590.70
November 20105.790.78
December 20105.400.65

Note. Rate includes job losers not on layoff, unemployed less than five weeks. Stock includes all job losers not on layoff.

Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): December 1969-November 1970, November 1973-March 1975, January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.


Exhibit 2
The Beveridge Curve

Top panel
Using Staff Composite Help Wanted Index

1973:Q4 to 2010:Q4
Period Help wanted index divided by labor force Unemployment rate
1973:Q4 to 1976:Q2
1973:Q44.524.77
1974:Q14.275.13
1974:Q24.285.20
1974:Q33.925.63
1974:Q43.216.60
1975:Q12.718.27
1975:Q22.708.87
1975:Q32.848.47
1975:Q42.968.30
1976:Q13.157.73
1976:Q23.237.57
1979:Q2 to 1983:Q4
1979:Q24.975.70
1979:Q34.935.87
1979:Q44.855.97
1980:Q14.496.30
1980:Q23.717.33
1980:Q33.717.67
1980:Q43.857.40
1981:Q13.767.43
1981:Q23.737.40
1981:Q33.637.40
1981:Q43.218.23
1982:Q12.978.83
1982:Q22.689.43
1982:Q32.359.90
1982:Q42.2810.67
1983:Q12.4010.37
1983:Q22.6510.13
1983:Q32.949.37
1983:Q43.328.53
1990:Q1 to 1993:Q3
1990:Q13.735.30
1990:Q23.515.33
1990:Q33.325.70
1990:Q42.906.13
1991:Q12.596.60
1991:Q22.506.83
1991:Q32.446.87
1991:Q42.387.10
1992:Q12.437.37
1992:Q22.467.60
1992:Q32.447.63
1992:Q42.537.37
1993:Q12.617.13
1993:Q22.617.07
1993:Q32.736.80
2000:Q4 to 2004:Q2
2000:Q43.583.90
2001:Q13.394.23
2001:Q22.934.40
2001:Q32.694.83
2001:Q42.315.50
2002:Q12.405.70
2002:Q22.425.83
2002:Q32.305.73
2002:Q42.205.87
2003:Q12.295.87
2003:Q22.156.13
2003:Q32.256.13
2003:Q42.345.83
2004:Q12.505.70
2004:Q22.545.60
2007:Q1 to 2010:Q4
2007:Q13.144.50
2007:Q23.164.50
2007:Q32.964.67
2007:Q42.864.80
2008:Q12.874.97
2008:Q22.655.30
2008:Q32.556.03
2008:Q42.356.90
2009:Q11.868.20
2009:Q21.789.27
2009:Q31.799.67
2009:Q41.849.97
2010:Q12.109.70
2010:Q22.169.63
2010:Q32.209.57
2010:Q42.269.63

Bottom-left panel
Using JOLTS Job Openings

2001:Q1 to 2010:Q4
Period Total nonfarm job openings
divided by labor force
Unemployment rate Fitted line Fitted curve
2001 to 2007 (black circles on chart)
2001:Q13.474.233.914.11
2001:Q23.224.414.334.40
2001:Q32.984.824.734.71
2001:Q42.555.545.475.43
2002:Q12.525.705.535.49
2002:Q22.425.845.685.67
2002:Q32.385.735.775.78
2002:Q42.405.855.725.71
2003:Q12.345.875.835.86
2003:Q22.226.156.026.13
2003:Q32.196.106.096.22
2003:Q42.265.825.976.05
2004:Q12.395.685.745.74
2004:Q22.455.595.645.62
2004:Q32.595.435.415.35
2004:Q42.555.395.465.41
2005:Q12.635.285.335.27
2005:Q22.745.115.145.08
2005:Q32.804.975.044.98
2005:Q42.934.954.834.79
2006:Q12.944.724.804.77
2006:Q23.024.654.674.65
2006:Q32.944.644.814.77
2006:Q43.064.454.614.61
2007:Q13.024.514.674.65
2007:Q23.074.494.594.59
2007:Q32.984.674.734.71
2007:Q42.884.814.924.87
2008 to 2009 (red triangles on chart)
2008:Q12.694.965.235.16
2008:Q22.585.325.435.37
2008:Q32.356.045.815.83
2008:Q42.086.916.276.51
2009:Q11.798.216.767.44
2009:Q21.619.277.068.18
2009:Q31.599.677.108.27
2009:Q41.639.997.038.08
2010 (blue squares on chart)
2010:Q11.809.69NDND
2010:Q21.979.65NDND
2010:Q32.009.58NDND
October and November2.149.62NDND

Bottom-right panel
Issues in Interpretation

  • Deviation is not a measure of an increase in structural unemployment.
  • The shape of the curve.
  • Increases in layoffs that occur during recessions.
  • Counter-clockwise loops.

Exhibit 3
Models Informing Tealbook Assumptions

Top-left panel
Job Matching

Percent
Period Actual U-E Flows Estimated
1980:Q127.7928.34
1980:Q226.1125.67
1980:Q325.8625.31
1980:Q426.0825.87
1981:Q125.0925.65
1981:Q225.4725.60
1981:Q324.3425.39
1981:Q424.3923.76
1982:Q122.9622.75
1982:Q221.5621.65
1982:Q321.0320.51
1982:Q419.3219.90
1983:Q119.3720.38
1983:Q220.6021.15
1983:Q321.8822.29
1983:Q422.2723.71
1984:Q124.3224.84
1984:Q224.4125.68
1984:Q324.3725.83
1984:Q423.8726.11
1985:Q126.3226.15
1985:Q225.2126.23
1985:Q325.2326.32
1985:Q424.5626.40
1986:Q126.1426.34
1986:Q225.0026.11
1986:Q324.8226.35
1986:Q426.6126.67
1987:Q126.3926.96
1987:Q227.1327.63
1987:Q327.6928.24
1987:Q428.2228.51
1988:Q127.2228.59
1988:Q230.2328.94
1988:Q329.4528.86
1988:Q427.5929.08
1989:Q130.1729.13
1989:Q229.4128.79
1989:Q329.8128.39
1989:Q430.1628.25
1990:Q130.5728.21
1990:Q228.1927.64
1990:Q326.7226.70
1990:Q426.4425.13
1991:Q125.4423.81
1991:Q225.3023.32
1991:Q324.8823.10
1991:Q423.3022.70
1992:Q123.6022.59
1992:Q222.9222.47
1992:Q322.6822.38
1992:Q423.5422.83
1993:Q123.0423.26
1993:Q223.7123.34
1993:Q323.7723.92
1993:Q424.9724.52
1994:Q125.5925.08
1994:Q226.2525.81
1994:Q327.3926.17
1994:Q428.0027.09
1995:Q128.4227.11
1995:Q227.5526.50
1995:Q328.1026.74
1995:Q427.1027.00
1996:Q127.4626.89
1996:Q227.0726.93
1996:Q328.6527.26
1996:Q427.8627.42
1997:Q129.3627.81
1997:Q229.3328.10
1997:Q328.6228.55
1997:Q430.1529.15
1998:Q129.9129.50
1998:Q231.0029.97
1998:Q330.9329.62
1998:Q430.7429.76
1999:Q131.8930.57
1999:Q230.4430.36
1999:Q331.8030.24
1999:Q433.1430.78
2000:Q133.0231.36
2000:Q232.1031.15
2000:Q332.4430.59
2000:Q431.5230.72
2001:Q131.0529.57
2001:Q231.1427.98
2001:Q329.4326.62
2001:Q427.0024.41
2002:Q126.9324.47
2002:Q224.5624.35
2002:Q325.4524.14
2002:Q423.8523.68
2003:Q123.8223.95
2003:Q223.6923.21
2003:Q323.2123.55
2003:Q424.5524.18
2004:Q124.0324.82
2004:Q225.2025.06
2004:Q325.7625.18
2004:Q426.6225.58
2005:Q125.9726.73
2005:Q226.1026.83
2005:Q326.5626.97
2005:Q426.4827.23
2006:Q126.9928.04
2006:Q228.3327.68
2006:Q329.0127.60
2006:Q428.8128.35
2007:Q129.6228.43
2007:Q227.5728.55
2007:Q327.2527.69
2007:Q426.8827.16
2008:Q126.3426.92
2008:Q225.3325.76
2008:Q323.7524.51
2008:Q421.1423.03
2009:Q118.7220.41
2009:Q217.5319.43
2009:Q317.0319.22
2009:Q416.0319.18
2010:Q116.9520.12
2010:Q217.0620.31
2010:Q316.7420.45
2010:Q417.1420.59

Note. Actual and estimated monthly flow rates from unemployment to employment. Estimated values are from a regression of the U-E flow rates on the log of the ratio of vacancies to unemployment.

Top-right panel
Contribution of Matching Efficiency to the Unemployment Rate

Period Percentage points
1980:Q10.13
1980:Q2-0.01
1980:Q3-0.03
1980:Q40.03
1981:Q10.15
1981:Q20.08
1981:Q30.23
1981:Q4-0.05
1982:Q10.02
1982:Q20.08
1982:Q3-0.04
1982:Q40.21
1983:Q10.30
1983:Q20.18
1983:Q30.15
1983:Q40.33
1984:Q10.15
1984:Q20.27
1984:Q30.30
1984:Q40.43
1985:Q10.04
1985:Q20.23
1985:Q30.24
1985:Q40.36
1986:Q10.10
1986:Q20.25
1986:Q30.31
1986:Q40.08
1987:Q10.15
1987:Q20.14
1987:Q30.15
1987:Q40.11
1988:Q10.26
1988:Q2-0.08
1988:Q30.00
1988:Q40.27
1989:Q1-0.05
1989:Q20.00
1989:Q3-0.09
1989:Q4-0.15
1990:Q1-0.34
1990:Q2-0.01
1990:Q30.06
1990:Q4-0.13
1991:Q1-0.20
1991:Q2-0.26
1991:Q3-0.22
1991:Q4-0.04
1992:Q1-0.11
1992:Q2-0.02
1992:Q30.01
1992:Q4-0.06
1993:Q10.11
1993:Q20.00
1993:Q30.09
1993:Q40.00
1994:Q1-0.04
1994:Q2-0.02
1994:Q3-0.13
1994:Q4-0.08
1995:Q1-0.13
1995:Q2-0.10
1995:Q3-0.14
1995:Q40.03
1996:Q1-0.03
1996:Q20.02
1996:Q3-0.14
1996:Q4-0.02
1997:Q1-0.16
1997:Q2-0.11
1997:Q30.03
1997:Q4-0.08
1998:Q1-0.02
1998:Q2-0.08
1998:Q3-0.12
1998:Q4-0.08
1999:Q1-0.11
1999:Q20.02
1999:Q3-0.14
1999:Q4-0.21
2000:Q1-0.15
2000:Q2-0.08
2000:Q3-0.17
2000:Q4-0.06
2001:Q1-0.14
2001:Q2-0.33
2001:Q3-0.32
2001:Q4-0.34
2002:Q1-0.32
2002:Q20.00
2002:Q3-0.17
2002:Q40.00
2003:Q10.05
2003:Q2-0.05
2003:Q30.08
2003:Q4-0.03
2004:Q10.15
2004:Q20.00
2004:Q3-0.06
2004:Q4-0.12
2005:Q10.13
2005:Q20.12
2005:Q30.07
2005:Q40.12
2006:Q10.15
2006:Q2-0.06
2006:Q3-0.15
2006:Q4-0.04
2007:Q1-0.12
2007:Q20.14
2007:Q30.07
2007:Q40.05
2008:Q10.10
2008:Q20.08
2008:Q30.15
2008:Q40.38
2009:Q10.42
2009:Q20.51
2009:Q30.60
2009:Q40.88
2010:Q10.83
2010:Q20.84
2010:Q30.97
2010:Q40.89

Note. Average contribution during 1980-2007 is normalized to zero.

Middle-left panel
An Unobserved Components Model

  • The model treats the NAIRU and other trends as unobserved components.
  • Related through such macroeconomic relationships as the Phillips Curve and Okun's Law.
  • Variant allows for the possibility that the Phillips curve flattened in the mid-1980s.
  • Also allows the NAIRU to be more variable than in previous episodes.

Middle-right panel
Model NAIRU

Period Percent
1963:Q25.24
1963:Q35.19
1963:Q45.29
1964:Q15.34
1964:Q25.33
1964:Q35.28
1964:Q45.34
1965:Q15.46
1965:Q25.43
1965:Q35.35
1965:Q45.40
1966:Q15.53
1966:Q25.66
1966:Q35.64
1966:Q45.54
1967:Q15.47
1967:Q25.39
1967:Q35.31
1967:Q45.33
1968:Q15.26
1968:Q25.25
1968:Q35.33
1968:Q45.34
1969:Q15.41
1969:Q25.45
1969:Q35.50
1969:Q45.37
1970:Q15.44
1970:Q25.52
1970:Q35.54
1970:Q45.67
1971:Q15.62
1971:Q25.58
1971:Q35.66
1971:Q45.69
1972:Q15.72
1972:Q25.76
1972:Q35.85
1972:Q45.89
1973:Q16.00
1973:Q26.16
1973:Q36.21
1973:Q46.11
1974:Q16.19
1974:Q26.06
1974:Q35.97
1974:Q45.96
1975:Q16.25
1975:Q26.26
1975:Q36.07
1975:Q46.14
1976:Q16.04
1976:Q26.03
1976:Q36.14
1976:Q46.21
1977:Q16.20
1977:Q26.20
1977:Q36.29
1977:Q46.24
1978:Q16.22
1978:Q26.30
1978:Q36.52
1978:Q46.58
1979:Q16.59
1979:Q26.47
1979:Q36.50
1979:Q46.46
1980:Q16.42
1980:Q26.63
1980:Q36.62
1980:Q46.50
1981:Q16.58
1981:Q26.47
1981:Q36.37
1981:Q46.60
1982:Q16.66
1982:Q26.72
1982:Q36.80
1982:Q46.98
1983:Q16.83
1983:Q26.90
1983:Q36.91
1983:Q46.73
1984:Q16.61
1984:Q26.57
1984:Q36.64
1984:Q46.60
1985:Q16.62
1985:Q26.63
1985:Q36.59
1985:Q46.46
1986:Q16.44
1986:Q26.51
1986:Q36.38
1986:Q46.32
1987:Q16.25
1987:Q26.14
1987:Q36.05
1987:Q46.04
1988:Q16.03
1988:Q25.97
1988:Q36.06
1988:Q46.08
1989:Q15.99
1989:Q25.94
1989:Q35.92
1989:Q45.88
1990:Q15.67
1990:Q25.56
1990:Q35.55
1990:Q45.50
1991:Q15.46
1991:Q25.40
1991:Q35.26
1991:Q45.20
1992:Q15.20
1992:Q25.24
1992:Q35.23
1992:Q45.19
1993:Q15.10
1993:Q25.12
1993:Q35.04
1993:Q45.02
1994:Q15.08
1994:Q25.03
1994:Q35.05
1994:Q45.00
1995:Q14.96
1995:Q25.08
1995:Q35.12
1995:Q45.12
1996:Q15.09
1996:Q25.13
1996:Q35.14
1996:Q45.27
1997:Q15.28
1997:Q25.21
1997:Q35.22
1997:Q45.20
1998:Q15.24
1998:Q25.16
1998:Q35.29
1998:Q45.33
1999:Q15.35
1999:Q25.38
1999:Q35.43
1999:Q45.42
2000:Q15.44
2000:Q25.39
2000:Q35.44
2000:Q45.34
2001:Q15.36
2001:Q25.30
2001:Q35.26
2001:Q45.37
2002:Q15.38
2002:Q25.34
2002:Q35.27
2002:Q45.28
2003:Q15.21
2003:Q25.32
2003:Q35.35
2003:Q45.29
2004:Q15.32
2004:Q25.35
2004:Q35.34
2004:Q45.36
2005:Q15.37
2005:Q25.32
2005:Q35.30
2005:Q45.39
2006:Q15.37
2006:Q25.39
2006:Q35.42
2006:Q45.39
2007:Q15.39
2007:Q25.34
2007:Q35.38
2007:Q45.40
2008:Q15.36
2008:Q25.32
2008:Q35.30
2008:Q45.38
2009:Q15.67
2009:Q25.98
2009:Q35.88
2009:Q46.12
2010:Q16.02
2010:Q26.15
2010:Q36.03
2010:Q46.19

Bottom-left panel
Tealbook NAIRU

Percent
Period Unemployment rate NAIRU* Effective NAIRU**
1960:Q15.325.225.22
1960:Q25.385.225.22
1960:Q35.705.225.22
1960:Q46.405.225.22
1961:Q16.925.225.25
1961:Q27.125.225.53
1961:Q36.905.225.39
1961:Q46.325.225.32
1962:Q15.775.225.29
1962:Q25.635.225.27
1962:Q35.695.225.24
1962:Q45.655.225.22
1963:Q15.925.225.22
1963:Q25.835.225.22
1963:Q35.645.225.22
1963:Q45.725.225.22
1964:Q15.615.225.22
1964:Q25.375.225.22
1964:Q35.145.225.22
1964:Q45.115.225.22
1965:Q15.025.225.22
1965:Q24.815.225.22
1965:Q34.505.225.22
1965:Q44.255.225.22
1966:Q14.005.225.22
1966:Q23.965.235.23
1966:Q33.905.235.23
1966:Q43.845.235.23
1967:Q13.965.235.23
1967:Q23.965.235.23
1967:Q33.945.245.24
1967:Q44.075.245.24
1968:Q13.885.255.25
1968:Q23.695.265.26
1968:Q33.665.275.27
1968:Q43.555.285.28
1969:Q13.535.305.30
1969:Q23.585.315.31
1969:Q33.745.335.33
1969:Q43.745.355.35
1970:Q14.315.385.38
1970:Q24.905.415.41
1970:Q35.325.445.44
1970:Q45.955.475.47
1971:Q16.075.505.52
1971:Q26.065.535.62
1971:Q36.135.575.66
1971:Q46.105.615.69
1972:Q15.925.655.71
1972:Q25.815.695.75
1972:Q35.735.735.78
1972:Q45.455.765.81
1973:Q15.105.805.82
1973:Q25.045.845.85
1973:Q34.945.885.89
1973:Q44.925.915.93
1974:Q15.235.955.99
1974:Q25.315.986.02
1974:Q35.736.016.06
1974:Q46.706.046.10
1975:Q18.366.076.28
1975:Q28.976.106.36
1975:Q38.616.136.41
1975:Q48.406.156.37
1976:Q17.876.176.41
1976:Q27.676.206.42
1976:Q37.846.226.48
1976:Q47.886.256.47
1977:Q17.636.286.47
1977:Q27.256.306.45
1977:Q37.016.336.48
1977:Q46.756.366.49
1978:Q16.476.396.48
1978:Q26.146.426.48
1978:Q36.176.456.48
1978:Q46.036.486.50
1979:Q16.026.526.53
1979:Q25.866.556.57
1979:Q36.016.596.60
1979:Q46.086.626.63
1980:Q16.446.666.67
1980:Q27.476.696.73
1980:Q37.836.726.81
1980:Q47.556.756.87
1981:Q17.586.786.89
1981:Q27.556.816.88
1981:Q37.576.846.87
1981:Q48.406.876.88
1982:Q19.006.896.93
1982:Q29.586.927.04
1982:Q310.106.947.05
1982:Q410.836.957.20
1983:Q110.566.967.27
1983:Q210.266.977.36
1983:Q39.536.987.17
1983:Q48.716.977.13
1984:Q18.056.977.08
1984:Q27.656.967.03
1984:Q37.636.957.01
1984:Q47.466.936.99
1985:Q17.466.916.97
1985:Q27.476.886.92
1985:Q37.406.856.85
1985:Q47.246.826.82
1986:Q17.186.786.78
1986:Q27.356.736.74
1986:Q37.176.696.69
1986:Q47.016.636.64
1987:Q16.806.586.58
1987:Q26.466.526.52
1987:Q36.206.456.45
1987:Q46.066.396.39
1988:Q15.926.326.32
1988:Q25.686.256.25
1988:Q35.696.186.18
1988:Q45.556.106.10
1989:Q15.416.026.02
1989:Q25.445.945.94
1989:Q35.485.865.86
1989:Q45.585.785.78
1990:Q15.435.835.83
1990:Q25.475.775.77
1990:Q35.825.715.71
1990:Q46.245.655.65
1991:Q16.705.605.60
1991:Q26.955.545.56
1991:Q36.985.495.49
1991:Q47.225.435.50
1992:Q17.505.385.66
1992:Q27.725.345.63
1992:Q37.755.295.54
1992:Q47.535.255.50
1993:Q17.285.205.46
1993:Q27.205.165.40
1993:Q36.935.135.36
1993:Q46.755.095.28
1994:Q16.585.165.27
1994:Q26.195.145.17
1994:Q36.035.115.11
1994:Q45.655.095.09
1995:Q15.515.075.07
1995:Q25.705.055.05
1995:Q35.685.035.03
1995:Q45.605.025.02
1996:Q15.575.015.01
1996:Q25.505.005.00
1996:Q35.294.994.99
1996:Q45.344.994.99
1997:Q15.244.984.98
1997:Q24.994.984.98
1997:Q34.884.994.99
1997:Q44.714.984.98
1998:Q14.635.015.01
1998:Q24.405.015.01
1998:Q34.525.015.01
1998:Q44.425.015.01
1999:Q14.275.015.01
1999:Q24.245.015.01
1999:Q34.235.015.01
1999:Q44.075.025.02
2000:Q14.055.005.00
2000:Q23.955.005.00
2000:Q34.035.005.00
2000:Q43.925.005.00
2001:Q14.235.005.00
2001:Q24.415.005.00
2001:Q34.815.005.00
2001:Q45.535.015.01
2002:Q15.705.005.02
2002:Q25.845.005.19
2002:Q35.725.005.17
2002:Q45.845.005.13
2003:Q15.875.005.11
2003:Q26.155.005.13
2003:Q36.105.005.13
2003:Q45.815.005.13
2004:Q15.685.005.06
2004:Q25.585.005.00
2004:Q35.435.005.00
2004:Q45.385.005.00
2005:Q15.275.005.00
2005:Q25.105.005.00
2005:Q34.965.005.00
2005:Q44.945.005.00
2006:Q14.715.005.00
2006:Q24.645.005.00
2006:Q34.635.005.00
2006:Q44.445.005.00
2007:Q14.505.005.00
2007:Q24.485.005.00
2007:Q34.655.005.00
2007:Q44.805.005.00
2008:Q14.955.005.00
2008:Q25.315.005.00
2008:Q36.035.175.30
2008:Q46.915.335.48
2009:Q18.225.505.76
2009:Q29.285.676.03
2009:Q39.685.836.36
2009:Q410.006.006.61
2010:Q19.696.006.75
2010:Q29.656.006.66
2010:Q39.586.006.65
2010:Q49.626.006.59
Forecast
2011:Q19.466.006.58
2011:Q29.346.006.56
2011:Q39.146.006.55
2011:Q48.936.006.54
2012:Q18.726.006.48
2012:Q28.436.006.37
2012:Q38.136.006.25
2012:Q47.846.006.15
2013:Q17.605.945.94
2013:Q27.385.885.88
2013:Q37.175.815.81
2013:Q46.965.755.75
2014:Q16.735.695.69
2014:Q26.495.635.63
2014:Q36.235.565.56
2014:Q45.995.505.50
2015:Q15.795.445.44
2015:Q25.615.385.38
2015:Q35.465.315.31
2015:Q45.315.255.25

As shown in the chart, when unemployment rate is above effective NAIRU, the region between them is shaded gray and is labeled "Labor market slack." When unemployment rate is below NAIRU, the region between them is shaded light green.

* Staff estimate.  Return to table

** Includes emergency unemployment compensation and state-federal extended benefits programs.  Return to table

Bottom-right panel
Duration of Unemployment

Period Long-term unemployed*
(Percent of labor force)
Median duration of unemployment
(Weeks)
January 19660.39ND
February 19660.36ND
March 19660.36ND
April 19660.33ND
May 19660.38ND
June 19660.30ND
July 19660.28ND
August 19660.27ND
September 19660.27ND
October 19660.29ND
November 19660.26ND
December 19660.27ND
January 19670.26ND
February 19670.26ND
March 19670.24ND
April 19670.23ND
May 19670.20ND
June 19670.19ND
July 19670.194.5
August 19670.264.7
September 19670.214.6
October 19670.234.9
November 19670.234.7
December 19670.254.8
January 19680.245.1
February 19680.234.5
March 19680.234.1
April 19680.194.6
May 19680.174.4
June 19680.204.4
July 19680.204.5
August 19680.194.2
September 19680.174.6
October 19680.174.8
November 19680.174.4
December 19680.204.4
January 19690.164.4
February 19690.144.9
March 19690.154.0
April 19690.174.0
May 19690.164.2
June 19690.154.4
July 19690.204.4
August 19690.164.4
September 19690.184.7
October 19690.174.5
November 19690.184.8
December 19690.164.6
January 19700.174.6
February 19700.204.5
March 19700.224.6
April 19700.244.1
May 19700.284.7
June 19700.274.9
July 19700.285.1
August 19700.305.4
September 19700.345.2
October 19700.315.2
November 19700.405.6
December 19700.465.9
January 19710.516.2
February 19710.546.3
March 19710.546.4
April 19710.546.5
May 19710.606.7
June 19710.655.7
July 19710.676.2
August 19710.656.4
September 19710.665.8
October 19710.706.5
November 19710.686.4
December 19710.686.2
January 19720.696.2
February 19720.766.6
March 19720.736.6
April 19720.786.7
May 19720.676.6
June 19720.635.4
July 19720.606.1
August 19720.616.0
September 19720.635.6
October 19720.605.7
November 19720.545.7
December 19720.526.1
January 19730.475.7
February 19730.425.2
March 19730.445.5
April 19730.385.0
May 19730.394.9
June 19730.365.0
July 19730.315.2
August 19730.374.9
September 19730.335.4
October 19730.375.5
November 19730.395.1
December 19730.364.7
January 19740.365.0
February 19740.375.1
March 19740.364.8
April 19740.395.0
May 19740.394.6
June 19740.405.3
July 19740.425.7
August 19740.425.0
September 19740.425.3
October 19740.435.5
November 19740.465.2
December 19740.585.7
January 19750.676.3
February 19750.777.1
March 19750.837.2
April 19751.038.7
May 19751.169.4
June 19751.398.8
July 19751.498.6
August 19751.569.2
September 19751.709.2
October 19751.548.6
November 19751.759.5
December 19751.689.0
January 19761.679.0
February 19761.618.2
March 19761.538.7
April 19761.478.2
May 19761.278.3
June 19761.417.8
July 19761.297.7
August 19761.327.9
September 19761.257.8
October 19761.277.7
November 19761.318.4
December 19761.378.0
January 19771.257.5
February 19771.237.2
March 19771.197.2
April 19771.147.3
May 19771.087.9
June 19771.046.2
July 19770.987.1
August 19770.907.0
September 19770.946.7
October 19770.916.9
November 19770.897.0
December 19770.856.8
January 19780.816.5
February 19780.666.7
March 19780.716.2
April 19780.676.1
May 19780.685.7
June 19780.636.0
July 19780.645.8
August 19780.605.8
September 19780.615.6
October 19780.585.9
November 19780.515.5
December 19780.495.6
January 19790.515.9
February 19790.535.9
March 19790.575.9
April 19790.535.4
May 19790.505.6
June 19790.505.6
July 19790.455.9
August 19790.514.8
September 19790.505.5
October 19790.505.5
November 19790.525.3
December 19790.515.7
January 19800.515.3
February 19800.485.8
March 19800.586.0
April 19800.655.8
May 19800.675.7
June 19800.726.4
July 19800.827.0
August 19800.877.5
September 19800.907.7
October 19800.997.5
November 19801.057.7
December 19801.077.5
January 19811.177.4
February 19811.157.1
March 19811.127.1
April 19811.047.4
May 19811.056.9
June 19811.046.6
July 19811.007.1
August 19811.077.2
September 19811.036.8
October 19811.046.8
November 19811.056.9
December 19811.086.9
January 19821.097.1
February 19821.177.5
March 19821.247.7
April 19821.378.1
May 19821.468.5
June 19821.629.5
July 19821.658.5
August 19821.698.7
September 19821.829.5
October 19822.039.7
November 19822.1110.0
December 19822.3110.2
January 19832.4111.1
February 19832.459.8
March 19832.4810.4
April 19832.4510.9
May 19832.4812.3
June 19832.5811.3
July 19832.3210.1
August 19832.259.3
September 19832.179.3
October 19832.039.4
November 19831.939.3
December 19831.838.7
January 19841.829.1
February 19841.638.3
March 19841.588.3
April 19841.568.2
May 19841.499.1
June 19841.387.5
July 19841.407.5
August 19841.337.3
September 19841.277.6
October 19841.257.2
November 19841.257.2
December 19841.227.3
January 19851.156.8
February 19851.177.1
March 19851.177.1
April 19851.196.9
May 19851.076.9
June 19851.116.6
July 19851.106.9
August 19851.067.1
September 19851.066.9
October 19851.037.1
November 19851.127.0
December 19851.046.8
January 19860.936.7
February 19861.016.9
March 19861.006.8
April 19861.006.7
May 19860.996.8
June 19861.087.0
July 19861.036.9
August 19861.017.1
September 19861.047.4
October 19861.027.0
November 19860.987.1
December 19860.977.1
January 19870.966.9
February 19870.936.6
March 19870.946.6
April 19870.907.1
May 19870.936.6
June 19870.906.5
July 19870.826.5
August 19870.876.4
September 19870.826.0
October 19870.796.3
November 19870.776.2
December 19870.756.0
January 19880.726.2
February 19880.736.3
March 19880.706.4
April 19880.675.9
May 19880.705.9
June 19880.665.8
July 19880.656.1
August 19880.655.9
September 19880.675.7
October 19880.635.6
November 19880.575.7
December 19880.605.9
January 19890.595.6
February 19890.525.4
March 19890.545.4
April 19890.585.4
May 19890.515.3
June 19890.495.4
July 19890.505.6
August 19890.455.0
September 19890.484.9
October 19890.524.9
November 19890.534.8
December 19890.514.9
January 19900.515.1
February 19900.505.3
March 19900.515.1
April 19900.524.8
May 19900.515.2
June 19900.515.2
July 19900.555.4
August 19900.585.4
September 19900.625.6
October 19900.625.8
November 19900.665.7
December 19900.665.9
January 19910.696.0
February 19910.726.2
March 19910.756.7
April 19910.776.6
May 19910.836.4
June 19910.886.9
July 19910.887.0
August 19910.937.3
September 19910.946.8
October 19910.987.2
November 19911.097.5
December 19911.197.8
January 19921.288.1
February 19921.348.2
March 19921.398.3
April 19921.378.5
May 19921.558.8
June 19921.678.7
July 19921.658.6
August 19921.618.8
September 19921.648.6
October 19921.719.0
November 19921.559.0
December 19921.609.3
January 19931.538.6
February 19931.488.5
March 19931.408.5
April 19931.278.4
May 19931.378.1
June 19931.388.3
July 19931.378.2
August 19931.378.2
September 19931.368.3
October 19931.408.0
November 19931.398.3
December 19931.378.3
January 19941.338.6
February 19941.359.2
March 19941.379.3
April 19941.349.1
May 19941.309.2
June 19941.219.3
July 19941.209.0
August 19941.208.9
September 19941.179.2
October 19941.2110.0
November 19941.119.0
December 19941.048.7
January 19951.018.0
February 19950.938.1
March 19951.018.3
April 19951.078.3
May 19951.009.1
June 19950.947.9
July 19950.948.5
August 19950.938.3
September 19950.957.9
October 19950.928.2
November 19950.958.0
December 19950.928.3
January 19960.918.3
February 19960.907.8
March 19961.008.3
April 19961.018.6
May 19961.028.6
June 19961.028.3
July 19960.998.3
August 19960.948.4
September 19960.908.5
October 19960.888.3
November 19960.857.7
December 19960.857.8
January 19970.857.8
February 19970.828.1
March 19970.817.9
April 19970.818.3
May 19970.778.0
June 19970.798.0
July 19970.798.3
August 19970.797.8
September 19970.798.2
October 19970.767.7
November 19970.687.6
December 19970.727.5
January 19980.737.4
February 19980.707.0
March 19980.676.8
April 19980.646.7
May 19980.616.0
June 19980.576.9
July 19980.606.7
August 19980.596.8
September 19980.666.7
October 19980.625.8
November 19980.636.6
December 19980.586.8
January 19990.516.9
February 19990.586.8
March 19990.516.8
April 19990.506.2
May 19990.526.5
June 19990.586.3
July 19990.525.8
August 19990.516.5
September 19990.516.0
October 19990.526.1
November 19990.496.2
December 19990.495.8
January 20000.515.8
February 20000.446.1
March 20000.456.0
April 20000.426.1
May 20000.455.8
June 20000.445.7
July 20000.496.0
August 20000.506.3
September 20000.455.2
October 20000.446.1
November 20000.416.1
December 20000.456.0
January 20010.475.8
February 20010.506.1
March 20010.486.6
April 20010.505.9
May 20010.446.3
June 20010.506.0
July 20010.496.8
August 20010.606.9
September 20010.577.2
October 20010.637.3
November 20010.777.7
December 20010.788.2
January 20020.848.4
February 20020.848.3
March 20020.928.4
April 20021.018.9
May 20021.099.5
June 20021.1311.0
July 20021.098.9
August 20021.089.0
September 20021.099.5
October 20021.149.6
November 20021.209.3
December 20021.339.6
January 20031.219.6
February 20031.289.5
March 20031.239.7
April 20031.3210.2
May 20031.329.9
June 20031.4311.5
July 20031.3510.3
August 20031.3610.1
September 20031.3710.2
October 20031.3410.4
November 20031.3610.3
December 20031.3210.4
January 20041.3010.6
February 20041.2710.2
March 20041.3510.2
April 20041.239.5
May 20041.229.9
June 20041.2511.0
July 20041.148.9
August 20041.119.2
September 20041.159.6
October 20041.189.5
November 20041.159.7
December 20041.129.5
January 20051.119.4
February 20051.109.2
March 20051.129.3
April 20051.089.0
May 20051.039.1
June 20050.929.0
July 20050.928.8
August 20050.949.2
September 20050.968.4
October 20050.958.6
November 20050.918.5
December 20050.908.7
January 20060.788.6
February 20060.909.1
March 20060.878.7
April 20060.888.4
May 20060.888.5
June 20060.767.3
July 20060.868.0
August 20060.868.4
September 20060.828.0
October 20060.717.9
November 20060.748.3
December 20060.727.5
January 20070.748.3
February 20070.818.4
March 20070.819.1
April 20070.798.6
May 20070.748.2
June 20070.757.7
July 20070.858.7
August 20070.828.8
September 20070.838.7
October 20070.858.4
November 20070.898.7
December 20070.868.4
January 20080.909.0
February 20080.868.7
March 20080.858.6
April 20080.899.2
May 20081.027.9
June 20081.039.1
July 20081.089.6
August 20081.219.6
September 20081.3110.3
October 20081.4710.5
November 20081.449.9
December 20081.6910.6
January 20091.7410.7
February 20091.9311.6
March 20092.1012.2
April 20092.4012.9
May 20092.5914.4
June 20092.8417.4
July 20093.2115.8
August 20093.2716.1
September 20093.5718.0
October 20093.6718.9
November 20093.8520.2
December 20094.0020.4
January 20104.1120.0
February 20103.9919.6
March 20104.2320.3
April 20104.3121.6
May 20104.3522.8
June 20104.3525.5
July 20104.2621.7
August 20104.0620.6
September 20103.9920.5
October 20104.0521.3
November 20104.1121.7
December 20104.1922.4

* Unemployed for more than 26 weeks.  Return to table

Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the NBER: April 1960-February 1961, December 1969-November 1970, November 1973-March 1975, January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.


Exhibit 4
Theoretical Motivation

Top panel
The Matching Function

$$$$ H_{t} = \mu_{t}V_{t}^{1-\alpha}U_{t}^{\alpha}$$$$
  • $$ H_{t}$$ = total hires (or matches)
  • $$ V_{t}$$ = total vacancies
  • $$ U_{t}$$ = total unemployment
  • $$ \mu_{t}$$ = "matching efficiency" parameter

Middle panel
Matching Efficiency

  • Lower efficiency implies fewer hires for a given $$ U_{t}$$, $$ V_{t}$$
  • Decline in efficiency shifts Beveridge curve out
  • Efficiency parameter can change because of structural or cyclical factors (i.e., any changes not captured by $$ U_{t}$$ or $$ V_{t}$$)

Bottom panel
Shifts and Movements in the Beveridge Curve

Beveridge Curve

A graph shows a Beveridge curve, which is a downward-sloping curve that is concave to the origin. The horizontal axis shows the unemployment rate. The vertical axis shows the vacancy rate. The graph shows that expansionary movements represent movements up and to the left along the curve and that recessionary movements represent movements down and to the right along the curve. It also shows that the curve can shift out (up and to the right) in a parallel fashion.

Things that shift the Beveridge curve
  • Changes in matching efficiency
  • Changes in layoff, separation rates
  • "Looping" to new equilibrium
Things that affect measured matching efficiency
  • Mismatch
  • Behavior of quitting workers
  • Search efforts of workers, firms

Exhibit 5
Extended Unemployment Insurance Benefits

Unemployment Duration by Reason for Unemployment

Top-left panel
Weeks Unemployed
Period Job losers
(UI eligible)
Quits/entrants
(UI ineligible)
January 200513.2115.50
February 200513.3315.62
March 200513.2514.85
April 200512.7915.63
May 200512.7315.02
June 200513.0314.89
July 200512.8615.20
August 200512.5415.28
September 200512.9015.73
October 200512.6315.39
November 200513.1614.98
December 200512.7514.21
January 200612.7013.60
February 200612.3013.94
March 200611.9013.73
April 200613.0313.44
May 200613.3012.98
June 200612.6813.50
July 200611.8815.55
August 200611.7415.91
September 200612.1415.84
October 200611.6913.89
November 200611.6513.73
December 200611.2913.52
January 200711.9613.67
February 200711.9812.63
March 200712.1413.36
April 200712.1414.30
May 200712.4315.28
June 200713.1614.94
July 200714.5014.40
August 200714.5813.94
September 200714.5314.76
October 200713.3915.27
November 200712.9016.20
December 200713.1716.14
January 200812.7716.23
February 200813.7215.77
March 200814.0814.75
April 200814.0014.41
May 200814.1117.01
June 200814.4719.32
July 200815.6921.44
August 200816.6621.17
September 200818.0221.21
October 200819.6320.61
November 200821.2019.84
December 200825.4120.19
January 200929.4921.43
February 200932.6424.97
March 200932.9426.43
April 200932.0327.12
May 200935.7531.52
June 200934.4735.39
July 200935.6037.02
August 200933.7732.60
September 200933.4229.19
October 200932.2929.70
November 200929.2529.91
December 200930.1030.60
January 201029.0532.53
February 201028.9432.26
March 201028.0431.94
April 201027.3729.28
May 201026.7828.95
June 201025.3728.06
July 201025.2928.25
August 201026.7828.97
September 201027.1927.52
October 201027.7427.61

Note: Through October, 2010, three-month moving average. From Daly et al. (2011), using CPS data. Dashed vertical lines indicate effective dates for extensions of maximum UI duration: June 2008, November 2008, November 2009. A shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: December 2007-June 2009.

Top-right panel
Extended UI Benefits
  • Job loser's behavior: + 0.8% pts to $$ U_{t}$$
  • Transitions out of unemployment: + 0.9 to 1.7% pts to $$ U_{t}$$
  • Preferred estimate across studies: about +0.8% pts to $$ U_{t}$$

Unemployment Transition Rates by Unemployment Duration

Bottom-left panel
Transitions from Unemployment to Employment
Duration, Weeks Transition Rate,
2004-2007
Transition Rate,
2009-2010
0-40.3320.261
5-80.2560.178
9-120.2340.173
13-160.2330.162
17-200.1980.137
21-240.2210.138
25-280.2310.125
29-320.2080.111
33-400.2090.119
41-680.1650.116
69-960.1320.093
97+0.1440.091

Note: From Fujita (2010), using CPS data.

Bottom-right panel
Transitions from Unemployment to Out of the Labor Force
Duration, Weeks Transition Rate,
2004-2007
Transition Rate,
2009-2010
0-40.2030.167
5-80.2010.161
9-120.1980.154
13-160.1830.141
17-200.1620.133
21-240.1580.144
25-280.2350.176
29-320.1840.142
33-400.2100.155
41-680.2200.165
69-960.2270.147
97+0.2600.190

Note: From Fujita (2010), using CPS data.


Exhibit 6
Employer Recruiting Intensity

Recruiting Intensity per Vacancy over Time

Top-left panel
Period Recruiting Intensity Index
January 20011.13
February 20011.12
March 20011.17
April 20011.10
May 20011.11
June 20011.07
July 20011.07
August 20011.07
September 20011.06
October 20011.05
November 20011.05
December 20011.02
January 20021.04
February 20021.03
March 20021.00
April 20021.04
May 20021.04
June 20021.02
July 20021.06
August 20021.02
September 20021.03
October 20021.01
November 20021.03
December 20021.03
January 20031.04
February 20031.00
March 20030.95
April 20030.99
May 20030.98
June 20030.99
July 20030.97
August 20030.99
September 20031.01
October 20031.03
November 20030.99
December 20031.04
January 20041.03
February 20041.00
March 20041.07
April 20041.05
May 20041.04
June 20041.03
July 20041.02
August 20041.05
September 20041.04
October 20041.06
November 20041.06
December 20041.06
January 20051.10
February 20051.07
March 20051.07
April 20051.06
May 20051.06
June 20051.07
July 20051.06
August 20051.09
September 20051.08
October 20051.03
November 20051.06
December 20051.04
January 20061.02
February 20061.08
March 20061.06
April 20061.03
May 20061.08
June 20061.06
July 20061.08
August 20061.04
September 20061.05
October 20061.05
November 20061.08
December 20061.05
January 20071.03
February 20071.03
March 20071.05
April 20071.03
May 20071.05
June 20071.04
July 20071.02
August 20071.02
September 20071.02
October 20071.04
November 20071.02
December 20070.99
January 20080.98
February 20080.99
March 20080.98
April 20080.99
May 20080.96
June 20080.98
July 20080.94
August 20080.94
September 20080.91
October 20080.91
November 20080.85
December 20080.89
January 20090.89
February 20090.86
March 20090.83
April 20090.85
May 20090.84
June 20090.82
July 20090.85
August 20090.84
September 20090.86
October 20090.84
November 20090.87
December 20090.84
January 20100.86
February 20100.84
March 20100.88
April 20100.87
May 20100.88
June 20100.88
July 20100.89
August 20100.87
September 20100.87

Note: From Davis, Faberman, and Haltiwanger (2010), using JOLTS data. JOLTS data begin in December 2000. Scaled so that average value is equal to one over the sample period.

Top-right panel
Recruiting Intensity
  • Low recruiting intensity accounts for 1.4% of $$ U_{t}$$
  • Rise could be structural or cyclical

Bottom panel
Actual vs. Counterfactual Unemployment Rate, Holding Recruiting Intensity Constant

Percent of Labor Force
Period Actual Unemployment Rate Rate Predicted from Time-Invariant Recruiting Intensity
January 20014.264.81
February 20014.314.84
March 20014.345.08
April 20014.444.90
May 20014.424.91
June 20014.604.93
July 20014.665.01
August 20015.005.33
September 20015.055.34
October 20015.435.73
November 20015.655.92
December 20015.825.92
January 20025.796.01
February 20025.785.96
March 20025.855.88
April 20026.046.30
May 20025.896.13
June 20025.906.03
July 20025.896.27
August 20025.835.97
September 20025.775.92
October 20025.825.88
November 20025.976.18
December 20026.066.25
January 20035.946.17
February 20036.005.99
March 20035.985.71
April 20036.146.07
May 20036.226.08
June 20036.416.33
July 20036.266.10
August 20036.186.10
September 20036.196.25
October 20036.056.25
November 20035.925.87
December 20035.765.97
January 20045.795.94
February 20045.665.64
March 20045.876.31
April 20045.665.94
May 20045.685.88
June 20045.715.86
July 20045.605.69
August 20045.505.77
September 20045.475.71
October 20045.545.85
November 20045.445.76
December 20045.445.78
January 20055.345.87
February 20055.465.83
March 20055.305.66
April 20055.235.57
May 20055.215.54
June 20055.125.49
July 20055.035.34
August 20054.985.41
September 20055.125.53
October 20055.055.20
November 20055.125.44
December 20054.925.12
January 20064.774.89
February 20064.845.21
March 20064.765.05
April 20064.794.95
May 20064.695.08
June 20064.694.99
July 20064.805.18
August 20064.754.96
September 20064.584.82
October 20064.494.72
November 20064.584.94
December 20064.514.72
January 20074.704.85
February 20074.584.70
March 20074.454.70
April 20074.554.70
May 20074.494.70
June 20074.624.78
July 20074.714.79
August 20074.714.81
September 20074.764.84
October 20074.814.99
November 20074.804.90
December 20075.075.02
January 20085.024.92
February 20084.914.84
March 20085.145.03
April 20085.034.97
May 20085.535.30
June 20085.645.50
July 20085.865.50
August 20086.255.87
September 20086.305.73
October 20086.686.06
November 20086.995.92
December 20087.506.66
January 20097.866.99
February 20098.377.19
March 20098.787.32
April 20099.097.75
May 20099.527.95
June 20099.667.90
July 20099.578.14
August 20099.878.26
September 200910.018.59
October 200910.328.68
November 200910.158.79
December 200910.158.57
January 20109.868.44
February 20109.868.31
March 20109.928.77
April 201010.048.78
May 20109.898.69
June 20109.678.50
July 20109.648.55
August 20109.768.45
September 20109.688.43

Note: From Davis, Faberman, and Haltiwanger (2010), using JOLTS and CPS data.

Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the NBER: March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.


Exhibit 7
General Measures of Mismatch

Top panel
Unemployment Outflow Rates by Industry

Rate
Period Total Construction Information Durable Goods Financial Education and Health
February 20000.588ND0.5770.6130.4900.643
March 20000.5920.5060.5100.6350.5760.627
April 20000.5980.6520.6400.5370.5810.657
May 20000.5930.6850.6350.5460.5430.611
June 20000.6030.7010.7000.5660.5520.627
July 20000.6020.6890.6560.5590.5780.634
August 20000.5980.6910.6440.5820.5480.605
September 20000.6060.7200.6620.5990.5780.649
October 20000.6070.7130.7000.6050.5640.656
November 20000.6040.7050.6570.5900.5700.657
December 20000.5980.7030.6230.5740.5660.660
January 20010.5930.6680.6020.5510.5400.630
February 20010.5970.6710.6420.5450.5430.641
March 20010.5880.6680.6150.5270.5350.626
April 20010.5840.6400.6230.5590.5200.638
May 20010.5880.6540.6200.5430.5550.649
June 20010.5800.6680.5720.5300.5340.649
July 20010.5750.6690.5700.5200.5010.640
August 20010.5690.6570.5600.5050.5290.639
September 20010.5550.6490.5160.4850.4990.637
October 20010.5400.6400.4580.4600.4970.620
November 20010.5300.6160.4600.4610.4730.604
December 20010.5170.5970.4520.4480.4790.588
January 20020.5130.5890.4440.4430.4820.600
February 20020.5000.5940.3810.4280.4620.573
March 20020.4930.5780.4020.4150.4530.575
April 20020.4760.5710.3490.3780.4420.553
May 20020.4640.5590.3290.3830.3890.543
June 20020.4480.5300.3270.3660.3800.532
July 20020.4420.5190.3140.3690.3860.518
August 20020.4380.5110.2930.3660.3540.522
September 20020.4320.4850.3100.3590.3580.504
October 20020.4270.4760.3180.3530.3490.507
November 20020.4230.4830.3140.3330.3420.505
December 20020.4190.4710.3080.3230.3190.493
January 20030.4150.4760.3130.3220.3310.489
February 20030.4100.4660.2880.3240.3340.482
March 20030.4080.4730.2950.3280.3090.485
April 20030.4050.4750.2950.3210.3140.461
May 20030.4020.4520.2930.3100.3200.470
June 20030.3980.4380.2920.3050.3220.457
July 20030.3940.4350.2980.2970.3320.463
August 20030.3900.4450.3060.2790.3220.453
September 20030.3840.4470.2830.2680.3190.444
October 20030.3840.4580.2980.2750.3260.438
November 20030.3830.4670.2650.2780.3290.426
December 20030.3840.4750.2890.2920.3290.432
January 20040.3820.4810.2800.2930.2870.425
February 20040.3810.4710.3250.2780.3010.432
March 20040.3770.4630.3050.2760.3070.416
April 20040.3840.4660.3210.2890.3100.431
May 20040.3850.4830.3260.2910.3160.424
June 20040.3890.4950.3430.3020.3190.420
July 20040.3920.5020.3470.3020.3120.415
August 20040.3950.4970.3630.3170.3310.427
September 20040.4020.4900.3790.3300.3150.430
October 20040.4030.4790.3440.3330.3190.437
November 20040.4050.4770.3710.3290.3370.440
December 20040.4080.4770.3750.3310.3320.437
January 20050.4130.4760.3780.3360.3870.442
February 20050.4130.4820.3460.3490.3700.439
March 20050.4210.4890.3650.3530.3860.444
April 20050.4200.4940.3410.3740.3920.436
May 20050.4230.4840.3530.3790.3950.425
June 20050.4300.4850.3270.3810.3960.445
July 20050.4290.4890.3310.3720.3920.455
August 20050.4300.4870.3150.3770.3980.453
September 20050.4290.5030.3130.3720.4250.447
October 20050.4350.5390.3240.3610.4340.446
November 20050.4380.5310.3330.3690.4240.448
December 20050.4430.5190.3490.3700.4500.469
January 20060.4470.5370.3580.3770.4150.458
February 20060.4490.5400.3920.3760.4180.460
March 20060.4550.5370.4310.3890.4050.461
April 20060.4550.5350.4200.3740.3990.465
May 20060.4570.5290.3930.3900.3920.478
June 20060.4610.5460.4320.4050.4030.480
July 20060.4620.5350.4440.4240.4060.463
August 20060.4640.5410.4280.4280.4160.461
September 20060.4700.5430.4140.4520.4070.473
October 20060.4750.5430.4470.4700.4000.467
November 20060.4730.5440.4370.4670.3940.474
December 20060.4750.5640.4380.4750.3870.459
January 20070.4700.5480.4250.4550.4090.466
February 20070.4750.5500.4120.4580.4130.480
March 20070.4720.5570.4020.4520.4240.483
April 20070.4700.5450.4540.4430.4460.465
May 20070.4680.5490.4480.4280.4390.460
June 20070.4620.5290.4320.4180.4240.456
July 20070.4580.5280.4060.4160.4200.455
August 20070.4580.5280.4120.4110.3840.463
September 20070.4500.5100.4260.3830.3940.452
October 20070.4420.4850.4040.3690.3860.461
November 20070.4450.4890.4010.3810.4190.466
December 20070.4350.4690.3820.3700.3970.465
January 20080.4370.4760.3720.3870.3890.462
February 20080.4350.4720.3590.3800.3840.451
March 20080.4300.4540.3340.3700.3680.448
April 20080.4290.4530.2950.3710.3390.466
May 20080.4240.4660.3300.3690.3420.463
June 20080.4170.4670.3320.3620.3540.447
July 20080.4120.4590.3480.3500.3410.445
August 20080.4040.4540.3640.3300.3380.428
September 20080.3970.4420.3460.3240.3150.421
October 20080.3870.4230.3440.3390.2990.400
November 20080.3790.4120.3570.3220.2560.386
December 20080.3680.4140.3270.3130.2500.378
January 20090.3580.3970.3390.2900.2400.383
February 20090.3410.3810.3380.2820.2240.373
March 20090.3300.3780.3050.2730.2180.356
April 20090.3170.3700.2850.2690.2220.340
May 20090.3000.3280.2640.2520.2220.325
June 20090.2870.3100.2270.2370.2090.302
July 20090.2780.2930.1970.2310.2040.300
August 20090.2650.2760.1870.2300.2070.292
September 20090.2520.2700.1900.2230.1810.275
October 20090.2420.2550.2000.1960.1800.273
November 20090.2340.2430.1920.1930.1820.267
December 20090.2290.2280.2100.1900.1750.252
January 20100.2230.2290.1880.1890.1720.241
February 20100.2210.2230.1860.1860.1660.233
March 20100.2170.2200.1910.1760.1600.241
April 20100.2120.2170.2000.1750.1450.240
May 20100.2140.2190.1860.1750.1410.233
June 20100.2150.2090.1970.1750.1320.241
July 20100.2110.2220.1900.1670.1400.235
August 20100.2100.2160.1890.1620.1340.228
September 20100.2120.2160.1860.1660.1530.235
October 20100.2110.2200.1640.1630.1490.233
November 20100.2080.2160.1670.1580.1450.228

Note: Elsby, Hobijn, Şahin (2010), CPS. Series 12-Month Moving Average.

Bottom panel
Unemployment Rate of Recent College Graduates

Percent
Period <25 College Graduates All
1976:Q17.537.73
1976:Q28.537.57
1976:Q37.957.73
1976:Q48.057.77
1977:Q110.367.50
1977:Q28.397.13
1977:Q37.516.90
1977:Q47.976.67
1978:Q17.456.33
1978:Q26.226.00
1978:Q37.486.03
1978:Q45.815.90
1979:Q15.355.87
1979:Q25.385.70
1979:Q35.725.87
1979:Q45.655.97
1980:Q15.366.30
1980:Q26.297.33
1980:Q35.767.67
1980:Q46.257.40
1981:Q17.107.43
1981:Q27.317.40
1981:Q36.677.40
1981:Q46.828.23
1982:Q17.158.83
1982:Q27.469.43
1982:Q38.219.90
1982:Q48.9510.67
1983:Q18.4610.37
1983:Q27.6210.13
1983:Q37.539.37
1983:Q47.988.53
1984:Q16.777.87
1984:Q26.317.43
1984:Q36.827.43
1984:Q45.997.30
1985:Q16.127.23
1985:Q25.977.30
1985:Q35.787.20
1985:Q45.387.03
1986:Q15.527.03
1986:Q26.717.17
1986:Q35.996.97
1986:Q46.176.83
1987:Q15.986.60
1987:Q26.356.27
1987:Q35.716.00
1987:Q44.875.83
1988:Q15.275.70
1988:Q24.515.47
1988:Q34.475.47
1988:Q44.575.33
1989:Q14.715.20
1989:Q24.695.23
1989:Q34.615.23
1989:Q46.045.37
1990:Q13.915.30
1990:Q24.835.33
1990:Q35.555.70
1990:Q45.536.13
1991:Q16.686.60
1991:Q26.826.83
1991:Q36.486.87
1991:Q47.977.10
1992:Q16.527.37
1992:Q26.427.60
1992:Q36.657.63
1992:Q46.707.37
1993:Q17.027.13
1993:Q25.607.07
1993:Q35.376.80
1993:Q45.656.63
1994:Q14.796.57
1994:Q25.186.20
1994:Q35.546.00
1994:Q45.185.63
1995:Q15.715.47
1995:Q25.895.67
1995:Q35.245.67
1995:Q46.235.57
1996:Q15.955.53
1996:Q26.035.50
1996:Q35.645.27
1996:Q44.675.33
1997:Q14.865.23
1997:Q23.385.00
1997:Q33.514.87
1997:Q43.254.67
1998:Q13.264.63
1998:Q24.104.40
1998:Q34.794.53
1998:Q43.794.43
1999:Q13.794.30
1999:Q24.974.27
1999:Q34.904.23
1999:Q45.614.07
2000:Q15.094.03
2000:Q24.933.93
2000:Q33.574.00
2000:Q44.213.90
2001:Q15.184.23
2001:Q24.874.40
2001:Q36.674.83
2001:Q45.845.50
2002:Q15.345.70
2002:Q25.595.83
2002:Q36.095.73
2002:Q46.005.87
2003:Q16.245.87
2003:Q26.286.13
2003:Q35.706.13
2003:Q46.295.83
2004:Q16.285.70
2004:Q25.935.60
2004:Q34.395.43
2004:Q46.775.43
2005:Q15.815.30
2005:Q24.825.10
2005:Q35.164.97
2005:Q44.344.97
2006:Q14.464.73
2006:Q24.954.63
2006:Q35.154.63
2006:Q46.194.43
2007:Q14.414.50
2007:Q25.784.50
2007:Q35.874.63
2007:Q46.154.80
2008:Q15.114.97
2008:Q25.375.30
2008:Q36.106.03
2008:Q46.856.97
2009:Q18.768.17
2009:Q29.189.27
2009:Q38.619.63
2009:Q49.1810.03
2010:Q19.149.70
2010:Q29.119.70
2010:Q38.529.57

Note: Aaronson, Barlevy, Mazumder (2011), CPS.

Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the NBER: January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.


Exhibit 8
Skill Mismatch

Top-left panel
Mismatch Indices by Industry

Indices
Period Mu Mh
June 20010.22630.0330
July 20010.22950.0352
August 20010.23920.0406
September 20010.23620.0412
October 20010.24660.0444
November 20010.24040.0415
December 20010.24500.0444
January 20020.24660.0458
February 20020.24470.0455
March 20020.25350.0465
April 20020.25330.0464
May 20020.25700.0461
June 20020.24780.0441
July 20020.24180.0414
August 20020.24390.0429
September 20020.24760.0437
October 20020.25760.0449
November 20020.26510.0471
December 20020.26930.0484
January 20030.27470.0501
February 20030.27310.0482
March 20030.26720.0465
April 20030.24970.0427
May 20030.24510.0431
June 20030.24700.0420
July 20030.25790.0425
August 20030.25570.0395
September 20030.25280.0403
October 20030.24040.0393
November 20030.22520.0367
December 20030.21620.0325
January 20040.21730.0306
February 20040.22360.0316
March 20040.21900.0312
April 20040.22160.0322
May 20040.21800.0306
June 20040.22730.0327
July 20040.22390.0325
August 20040.21790.0318
September 20040.20820.0299
October 20040.20370.0286
November 20040.20990.0295
December 20040.21250.0289
January 20050.20540.0278
February 20050.20060.0274
March 20050.19960.0277
April 20050.19890.0276
May 20050.19760.0262
June 20050.19590.0261
July 20050.20200.0261
August 20050.20780.0275
September 20050.20730.0264
October 20050.20810.0269
November 20050.19320.0233
December 20050.19940.0252
January 20060.20380.0270
February 20060.22070.0320
March 20060.21100.0293
April 20060.20320.0265
May 20060.19870.0247
June 20060.20300.0255
July 20060.20120.0256
August 20060.20420.0261
September 20060.21210.0282
October 20060.21550.0289
November 20060.22230.0310
December 20060.20930.0301
January 20070.20330.0281
February 20070.18900.0244
March 20070.19980.0251
April 20070.21350.0298
May 20070.21720.0308
June 20070.21390.0305
July 20070.20470.0286
August 20070.20480.0294
September 20070.20960.0309
October 20070.21880.0329
November 20070.21710.0331
December 20070.22180.0359
January 20080.22840.0383
February 20080.24840.0428
March 20080.24960.0430
April 20080.24160.0426
May 20080.22930.0391
June 20080.23450.0389
July 20080.24130.0384
August 20080.25090.0416
September 20080.25410.0426
October 20080.25470.0460
November 20080.25950.0506
December 20080.26680.0544
January 20090.29200.0637
February 20090.30050.0664
March 20090.30730.0708
April 20090.31640.0721
May 20090.31830.0748
June 20090.31200.0737
July 20090.30550.0724
August 20090.30460.0695
September 20090.29960.0669
October 20090.29810.0637
November 20090.30240.0631
December 20090.30840.0626
January 20100.30500.0615
February 20100.28160.0558
March 20100.26890.0514
April 20100.25970.0470
May 20100.26900.0461
June 20100.26840.0486
July 20100.25520.0446
August 20100.25840.0470
September 20100.26460.0462
October 20100.27730.0503
November 20100.27670.0488

Note: Şahin, Song, Topa, Violante (2010), JOLTS, CPS, Series 3-Month Moving Average.

Top-right panel
Actual and Counterfactual Unemployment (Industry)

Rate
Period Unemployment Rate Counterfactual Unemployment Difference
June 20014.5234.2320.291
July 20014.5834.2750.308
August 20014.9154.5890.326
September 20014.9604.5840.376
October 20015.3404.9570.383
November 20015.5485.1250.424
December 20015.7235.2790.444
January 20025.6875.2120.474
February 20025.6795.1830.496
March 20025.7485.2410.506
April 20025.9425.4100.532
May 20025.7955.2410.554
June 20025.7965.2460.551
July 20025.7945.2340.560
August 20025.7275.1670.559
September 20025.6695.1020.567
October 20025.7175.1420.574
November 20025.8745.2900.585
December 20025.9565.3470.609
January 20035.8385.2220.616
February 20035.8995.2740.625
March 20035.8815.2510.631
April 20036.0375.4060.630
May 20036.1145.4880.626
June 20036.3015.6610.640
July 20036.1525.5120.639
August 20036.0755.4460.628
September 20036.0885.4660.622
October 20035.9525.3280.624
November 20035.8345.2290.605
December 20035.6685.0850.584
January 20045.7005.1350.565
February 20045.5675.0150.552
March 20045.7785.2350.544
April 20045.5645.0330.530
May 20045.5845.0650.519
June 20045.6195.1120.507
July 20045.5095.0020.507
August 20045.4154.9180.496
September 20045.3774.8990.478
October 20045.4544.9830.472
November 20045.3544.8910.462
December 20045.3594.9040.454
January 20055.2584.8150.444
February 20055.3794.9470.432
March 20055.2144.7850.429
April 20055.1524.7350.417
May 20055.1264.7210.405
June 20055.0424.6470.394
July 20054.9564.5670.389
August 20054.9044.5260.378
September 20055.0374.6580.379
October 20054.9694.5970.372
November 20055.0424.6730.369
December 20054.8524.5040.348
January 20064.7034.3510.352
February 20064.7694.4150.354
March 20064.6894.3290.361
April 20064.7194.3740.345
May 20064.6204.2810.340
June 20064.6264.2880.337
July 20064.7404.4060.334
August 20064.6744.3450.329
September 20064.5154.1840.330
October 20064.4254.0940.330
November 20064.5094.1850.325
December 20064.4274.0880.340
January 20074.6374.3010.335
February 20074.5114.1860.325
March 20074.3914.0740.318
April 20074.4844.1600.324
May 20074.4324.0990.333
June 20074.5614.2330.328
July 20074.6724.3350.337
August 20074.6384.3010.337
September 20074.6874.3490.338
October 20074.7474.3960.351
November 20074.7204.3630.357
December 20074.9794.6200.359
January 20084.9684.5800.388
February 20084.8444.4450.399
March 20085.0554.6400.415
April 20084.9464.5120.434
May 20085.4424.9990.443
June 20085.5675.1130.454
July 20085.7975.3240.473
August 20086.1365.6480.488
September 20086.1815.6700.511
October 20086.5676.0360.531
November 20086.8246.2560.568
December 20087.3346.7270.607
January 20097.7337.1140.618
February 20098.2347.5140.721
March 20098.6347.8330.801
April 20098.9308.0490.881
May 20099.3698.4680.901
June 20099.5128.5840.928
July 20099.4168.4850.931
August 20099.7098.6281.081
September 20099.8488.7551.093
October 200910.1479.0441.103
November 20099.9798.7421.238
December 20099.9758.7711.204
January 20109.6878.5101.176
February 20109.6878.4971.190
March 20109.7498.5501.199
April 20109.8638.6541.209
May 20109.6988.5051.193
June 20109.5128.3711.140
July 20109.5078.4031.104
August 20109.6438.5381.105
September 20109.5798.4661.113
October 20109.6448.5641.080
November 20109.8178.6701.148

Note: Şahin, Song, Topa, Violante (2010), JOLTS, CPS.

Bottom-left panel
Mismatch Indices by Occupation

Indices
Period Mu Mh
July 20050.3650.126
August 20050.3680.130
September 20050.3720.132
October 20050.3740.133
November 20050.3730.136
December 20050.3730.135
January 20060.3750.134
February 20060.3740.129
March 20060.3680.125
April 20060.3610.124
May 20060.3580.124
June 20060.3570.125
July 20060.3550.124
August 20060.3600.127
September 20060.3590.128
October 20060.3650.130
November 20060.3660.130
December 20060.3720.131
January 20070.3700.129
February 20070.3680.131
March 20070.3690.137
April 20070.3750.142
May 20070.3800.144
June 20070.3820.143
July 20070.3830.142
August 20070.3780.139
September 20070.3790.138
October 20070.3760.137
November 20070.3730.137
December 20070.3680.134
January 20080.3690.137
February 20080.3750.138
March 20080.3810.143
April 20080.3810.144
May 20080.3810.144
June 20080.3800.142
July 20080.3820.142
August 20080.3770.139
September 20080.3750.140
October 20080.3720.137
November 20080.3780.140
December 20080.3820.141
January 20090.3920.144
February 20090.3940.144
March 20090.3920.142
April 20090.3860.139
May 20090.3830.140
June 20090.3840.141
July 20090.3850.139
August 20090.3830.138
September 20090.3840.138
October 20090.3880.143
November 20090.3940.143
December 20090.3950.141
January 20100.3850.135
February 20100.3720.130
March 20100.3670.131
April 20100.3660.131
May 20100.3680.131
June 20100.3650.126
July 20100.3600.124
August 20100.3600.124
September 20100.3570.125
October 20100.3550.124
November 20100.3480.122

Note: Şahin, Song, Topa, Violante (2010), The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Data Series, CPS. Series 3-Month Moving Average.

Bottom-right panel
Actual and Counterfactual Unemployment (Occupation)

Rate
Period Unemployment Rate Counterfactual Unemployment Difference
May 20055.1264.3350.791
June 20055.0424.3360.706
July 20054.9564.0960.861
August 20054.9043.9790.925
September 20055.0374.0241.013
October 20054.9693.8731.096
November 20055.0423.8861.156
December 20054.8523.6281.223
January 20064.7003.4651.235
February 20064.7703.5131.257
March 20064.6903.4061.284
April 20064.7193.4381.282
May 20064.6183.3151.303
June 20064.6233.3191.304
July 20064.7263.4061.320
August 20064.6773.3431.334
September 20064.5193.1731.346
October 20064.4263.1071.319
November 20064.5183.1811.337
December 20064.4433.0921.350
January 20074.6273.2761.351
February 20074.5103.1371.373
March 20074.3933.0251.368
April 20074.4883.0931.394
May 20074.4303.0181.412
June 20074.5523.1241.427
July 20074.6483.1881.460
August 20074.6453.1681.476
September 20074.6943.2221.472
October 20074.7493.2481.501
November 20074.7373.2421.495
December 20075.0023.4821.520
January 20084.9523.4121.540
February 20084.8413.2961.545
March 20085.0623.5061.556
April 20084.9573.3601.597
May 20085.4383.8171.621
June 20085.5473.8541.693
July 20085.7614.0491.712
August 20086.1474.3671.780
September 20086.1904.3791.811
October 20086.5694.7191.850
November 20086.8714.9511.920
December 20087.3755.4001.974
January 20097.7335.6592.074
February 20098.2346.0922.142
March 20098.6346.4172.217
April 20098.9306.6672.263
May 20099.3697.0512.318
June 20099.5127.1132.400
July 20099.4166.9662.451
August 20099.7097.2372.472
September 20099.8487.3142.534
October 200910.1477.5712.576
November 20099.9797.3282.651
December 20099.9757.2972.678
January 20109.6876.9962.691
February 20109.6877.0162.671
March 20109.7497.0862.663
April 20109.8637.1892.674
May 20109.6987.0102.688
June 20109.5126.8302.681
July 20109.5076.8462.661
August 20109.6436.9972.646
September 20109.5796.9302.649
October 20109.6446.9972.647
November 20109.8177.1772.640

Note: Şahin, Song, Topa, Violante (2010), The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Data Series, CPS.

Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the NBER: March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.


Exhibit 9
House Lock and Geographic Mismatch

Top panel
Rates of Migration between States

Interstate Migration Rate (%)
Period Published Data Non-Imputed Data
19962.4852.404
19972.4292.287
19982.3962.276
19992.8052.307
20003.1192.347
20012.8162.047
20022.7932.065
20032.7001.955
20042.5821.830
20052.5911.928
20061.9601.872
20071.6611.648
20081.6031.573
20091.5681.560
20101.4421.385

Note: Kaplan and Schulhofer-Wohl (2010), CPS.

Bottom panel
Average Unemployment Duration by 12-Month Change in State-Level House Price

Average Duration (in weeks)
Percent Change in House Prices Owner Renter
-3222.42816.168
-3020.67219.550
-2824.50122.370
-2620.88319.472
-2421.86520.210
-2220.42319.332
-2022.29723.296
-1821.73123.291
-1622.25321.048
-1423.81921.109
-1223.96722.303
-1025.48524.219
-824.86324.072
-626.01025.503
-425.21324.650
-223.38023.713
021.91022.501
217.75517.934
415.45415.562
615.11415.347
815.85416.681
1016.09117.282
1216.94518.034
1417.26215.830
1617.52216.666
1819.80017.757
2020.82918.964
2217.94918.624
2419.14618.636
2615.57416.649
2815.53820.306
3016.57415.129
3216.05713.352

Note: Foote and Ryan (2011), CPS, FHFA.


Exhibit 10
Long-term Unemployment and Hysteresis

Top panel
Unemployment-to-Employment Outflow Rates by Unemployment Duration

Rate
Period < 5 Weeks 5-14 Weeks 15-26 Weeks > 27 Weeks
January 19770.3070.2320.1900.146
February 19770.3070.2320.1880.145
March 19770.3110.2340.1940.145
April 19770.3110.2380.1940.145
May 19770.3120.2390.1950.145
June 19770.3140.2420.1980.152
July 19770.3130.2390.1960.153
August 19770.3140.2430.1960.155
September 19770.3160.2430.1940.155
October 19770.3190.2440.1960.154
November 19770.3200.2440.1980.152
December 19770.3220.2440.1990.159
January 19780.3290.2500.2020.167
February 19780.3320.2530.2050.174
March 19780.3290.2510.2040.172
April 19780.3290.2500.2070.175
May 19780.3320.2510.2090.173
June 19780.3340.2560.2120.175
July 19780.3310.2570.2160.173
August 19780.3330.2550.2210.169
September 19780.3380.2580.2200.169
October 19780.3410.2610.2220.171
November 19780.3440.2660.2240.179
December 19780.3400.2590.2250.177
January 19790.3360.2570.2220.172
February 19790.3350.2570.2220.168
March 19790.3360.2610.2210.168
April 19790.3330.2590.2160.166
May 19790.3340.2590.2180.172
June 19790.3350.2580.2220.167
July 19790.3370.2620.2200.163
August 19790.3370.2630.2200.164
September 19790.3340.2630.2230.163
October 19790.3310.2630.2180.162
November 19790.3310.2620.2190.158
December 19790.3340.2640.2200.155
January 19800.3320.2600.2180.152
February 19800.3320.2570.2230.155
March 19800.3320.2530.2200.156
April 19800.3350.2490.2150.152
May 19800.3330.2480.2140.147
June 19800.3280.2420.2060.146
July 19800.3260.2370.2040.147
August 19800.3260.2360.2040.147
September 19800.3220.2350.2010.147
October 19800.3240.2330.2050.148
November 19800.3210.2300.2050.146
December 19800.3200.2330.2050.146
January 19810.3210.2350.2070.146
February 19810.3170.2330.2010.142
March 19810.3170.2360.2000.141
April 19810.3170.2380.2080.145
May 19810.3130.2390.2020.143
June 19810.3120.2400.2020.148
July 19810.3120.2430.2070.152
August 19810.3080.2410.2040.151
September 19810.3070.2380.2030.148
October 19810.3050.2350.2000.150
November 19810.3040.2340.1980.149
December 19810.3020.2320.1940.148
January 19820.3020.2290.1920.150
February 19820.3010.2270.1910.146
March 19820.2990.2230.1900.146
April 19820.2950.2180.1820.143
May 19820.2950.2150.1840.142
June 19820.2920.2110.1810.136
July 19820.2900.2060.1740.134
August 19820.2880.2040.1730.132
September 19820.2870.2030.1710.131
October 19820.2810.2000.1680.125
November 19820.2770.1960.1630.122
December 19820.2770.1950.1630.123
January 19830.2760.1930.1620.122
February 19830.2740.1930.1610.122
March 19830.2730.1910.1610.121
April 19830.2720.1910.1630.120
May 19830.2690.1920.1630.120
June 19830.2720.1940.1670.121
July 19830.2690.1970.1680.121
August 19830.2700.2000.1730.121
September 19830.2710.2020.1770.123
October 19830.2730.2030.1770.126
November 19830.2770.2070.1830.129
December 19830.2780.2080.1850.129
January 19840.2790.2110.1910.133
February 19840.2820.2170.1960.137
March 19840.2830.2190.2010.141
April 19840.2840.2220.2030.142
May 19840.2880.2230.2060.145
June 19840.2910.2250.2080.151
July 19840.2950.2270.2070.150
August 19840.2990.2290.2040.153
September 19840.2970.2300.1990.154
October 19840.2990.2330.2030.155
November 19840.3010.2350.2020.154
December 19840.3000.2340.1980.151
January 19850.3010.2350.1970.150
February 19850.3040.2350.1970.151
March 19850.3080.2370.1960.150
April 19850.3090.2390.1950.149
May 19850.3100.2420.2000.151
June 19850.3080.2410.1980.146
July 19850.3070.2400.2030.147
August 19850.3070.2390.2070.145
September 19850.3090.2400.2150.146
October 19850.3100.2400.2190.145
November 19850.3100.2400.2220.144
December 19850.3090.2390.2280.146
January 19860.3120.2440.2290.146
February 19860.3070.2410.2290.142
March 19860.3030.2410.2320.141
April 19860.3030.2380.2330.143
May 19860.3050.2370.2310.140
June 19860.3060.2360.2310.141
July 19860.3060.2320.2300.140
August 19860.3070.2320.2300.140
September 19860.3050.2300.2250.139
October 19860.3050.2300.2230.140
November 19860.3060.2300.2190.141
December 19860.3090.2330.2200.147
January 19870.3090.2300.2190.148
February 19870.3110.2310.2180.149
March 19870.3120.2310.2150.151
April 19870.3170.2340.2200.150
May 19870.3180.2340.2160.154
June 19870.3180.2370.2180.155
July 19870.3230.2440.2200.158
August 19870.3210.2430.2210.158
September 19870.3260.2450.2230.159
October 19870.3290.2480.2240.159
November 19870.3270.2500.2230.163
December 19870.3290.2510.2230.161
January 19880.3290.2500.2200.160
February 19880.3320.2510.2240.160
March 19880.3330.2520.2220.159
April 19880.3370.2540.2200.164
May 19880.3360.2580.2200.160
June 19880.3430.2610.2180.160
July 19880.3420.2580.2190.163
August 19880.3440.2590.2210.164
September 19880.3480.2630.2240.163
October 19880.3440.2610.2270.163
November 19880.3450.2590.2260.164
December 19880.3440.2580.2290.165
January 19890.3420.2580.2340.166
February 19890.3440.2640.2320.170
March 19890.3480.2650.2330.171
April 19890.3420.2630.2290.168
May 19890.3440.2630.2350.169
June 19890.3420.2620.2370.174
July 19890.3400.2630.2330.169
August 19890.3400.2630.2300.171
September 19890.3430.2610.2280.179
October 19890.3460.2610.2240.178
November 19890.3540.2660.2290.176
December 19890.3530.2640.2270.172
January 19900.3540.2650.2260.175
February 19900.3590.2630.2300.173
March 19900.3550.2650.2310.171
April 19900.3540.2620.2320.168
May 19900.3530.2590.2300.170
June 19900.3500.2620.2320.169
July 19900.3480.2610.2330.170
August 19900.3480.2660.2350.170
September 19900.3380.2610.2300.159
October 19900.3380.2610.2280.160
November 19900.3340.2590.2240.159
December 19900.3310.2580.2240.161
January 19910.3280.2570.2200.154
February 19910.3220.2540.2150.153
March 19910.3210.2480.2150.155
April 19910.3240.2460.2150.155
May 19910.3250.2460.2130.151
June 19910.3200.2370.2060.146
July 19910.3190.2340.2040.147
August 19910.3190.2300.1990.149
September 19910.3200.2320.2010.153
October 19910.3150.2300.2020.154
November 19910.3140.2270.2010.155
December 19910.3130.2240.1980.154
January 19920.3180.2250.2000.156
February 19920.3130.2220.1950.154
March 19920.3120.2210.1920.152
April 19920.3080.2250.1920.153
May 19920.3050.2240.1890.153
June 19920.3040.2240.1870.149
July 19920.3080.2260.1870.151
August 19920.3020.2230.1860.145
September 19920.2990.2210.1810.145
October 19920.3050.2220.1830.144
November 19920.3030.2190.1860.141
December 19920.3070.2220.1860.143
January 19930.3030.2190.1830.144
February 19930.3030.2190.1840.146
March 19930.3010.2220.1840.148
April 19930.3040.2210.1840.152
May 19930.3050.2210.1830.155
June 19930.3050.2180.1860.155
July 19930.3050.2250.1870.153
August 19930.3080.2240.1880.152
September 19930.3130.2270.1880.151
October 19930.3070.2300.1830.150
November 19930.3080.2320.1790.148
December 19930.3080.2330.1820.149
January 19940.3130.2380.1850.149
February 19940.3160.2400.1890.149
March 19940.3210.2410.1910.152
April 19940.3260.2430.1910.150
May 19940.3300.2480.1940.152
June 19940.3360.2530.1960.155
July 19940.3360.2500.1930.154
August 19940.3400.2530.1940.157
September 19940.3430.2560.1990.158
October 19940.3500.2540.2010.159
November 19940.3520.2550.2050.163
December 19940.3580.2570.2070.161
January 19950.3580.2580.2050.161
February 19950.3640.2590.2080.164
March 19950.3680.2600.2120.159
April 19950.3680.2590.2100.157
May 19950.3670.2560.2100.154
June 19950.3640.2570.2110.152
July 19950.3640.2570.2160.153
August 19950.3640.2580.2190.151
September 19950.3610.2520.2210.149
October 19950.3620.2540.2250.148
November 19950.3650.2560.2230.149
December 19950.3590.2520.2170.147
January 19960.3600.2520.2120.145
February 19960.3610.2500.2100.143
March 19960.3580.2520.2020.144
April 19960.3550.2490.2040.144
May 19960.3590.2540.2070.144
June 19960.3590.2540.2020.141
July 19960.3620.2490.2000.140
August 19960.3670.2500.2000.144
September 19960.3690.2530.1990.142
October 19960.3690.2550.1980.145
November 19960.3690.2560.1990.144
December 19960.3700.2560.2020.145
January 19970.3710.2580.2080.145
February 19970.3680.2590.2060.148
March 19970.3690.2590.2100.150
April 19970.3710.2590.2110.148
May 19970.3730.2580.2120.155
June 19970.3770.2580.2140.156
July 19970.3780.2620.2130.159
August 19970.3740.2620.2120.156
September 19970.3720.2600.2130.154
October 19970.3760.2640.2180.152
November 19970.3740.2620.2200.152
December 19970.3790.2650.2220.153
January 19980.3800.2620.2200.154
February 19980.3810.2630.2180.151
March 19980.3790.2640.2230.154
April 19980.3840.2700.2290.159
May 19980.3800.2670.2250.157
June 19980.3800.2660.2260.163
July 19980.3810.2690.2340.162
August 19980.3830.2680.2360.163
September 19980.3870.2710.2350.167
October 19980.3880.2720.2290.172
November 19980.3860.2750.2270.176
December 19980.3830.2750.2310.174
January 19990.3830.2750.2320.178
February 19990.3840.2740.2360.180
March 19990.3900.2760.2380.174
April 19990.3850.2760.2340.176
May 19990.3870.2770.2360.172
June 19990.3880.2760.2350.177
July 19990.3890.2750.2310.182
August 19990.3890.2770.2280.181
September 19990.3900.2820.2310.188
October 19990.3870.2790.2290.177
November 19990.3940.2770.2330.176
December 19990.3980.2790.2300.176
January 20000.4010.2840.2350.176
February 20000.3990.2830.2370.178
March 20000.3980.2870.2370.181
April 20000.4000.2850.2360.184
May 20000.3970.2850.2380.185
June 20000.3990.2880.2410.179
July 20000.3970.2860.2360.177
August 20000.3970.2870.2320.179
September 20000.4000.2860.2290.179
October 20000.4020.2860.2310.190
November 20000.4010.2870.2290.193
December 20000.3940.2880.2290.195
January 20010.3910.2860.2250.193
February 20010.3960.2880.2190.191
March 20010.3940.2810.2160.189
April 20010.3920.2800.2110.180
May 20010.3960.2820.2070.180
June 20010.3940.2850.2080.177
July 20010.3930.2790.2090.172
August 20010.3920.2810.2120.174
September 20010.3860.2760.2090.168
October 20010.3780.2740.2060.163
November 20010.3740.2720.2040.160
December 20010.3750.2700.2010.159
January 20020.3710.2650.2000.158
February 20020.3680.2650.2030.163
March 20020.3640.2640.2000.164
April 20020.3590.2620.1990.169
May 20020.3560.2580.1970.166
June 20020.3480.2480.1910.164
July 20020.3430.2510.1880.162
August 20020.3400.2460.1890.161
September 20020.3400.2460.1900.157
October 20020.3390.2420.1900.159
November 20020.3380.2400.1860.157
December 20020.3350.2390.1860.154
January 20030.3340.2390.1860.157
February 20030.3280.2340.1820.148
March 20030.3250.2320.1800.147
April 20030.3260.2320.1840.144
May 20030.3280.2280.1870.143
June 20030.3280.2300.1890.142
July 20030.3280.2290.1870.141
August 20030.3290.2300.1850.139
September 20030.3250.2280.1850.141
October 20030.3270.2290.1830.141
November 20030.3250.2280.1820.140
December 20030.3290.2280.1880.143
January 20040.3340.2250.1860.141
February 20040.3330.2280.1850.141
March 20040.3350.2280.1840.140
April 20040.3380.2310.1860.144
May 20040.3350.2340.1820.145
June 20040.3350.2330.1840.149
July 20040.3390.2350.1930.153
August 20040.3350.2300.1940.154
September 20040.3430.2360.1970.155
October 20040.3430.2410.2030.153
November 20040.3450.2410.2080.153
December 20040.3460.2410.2050.152
January 20050.3430.2420.2070.152
February 20050.3460.2410.2100.154
March 20050.3480.2410.2130.155
April 20050.3470.2420.2170.155
May 20050.3450.2400.2200.155
June 20050.3470.2440.2250.154
July 20050.3420.2400.2200.154
August 20050.3450.2450.2160.157
September 20050.3400.2440.2200.156
October 20050.3410.2400.2190.156
November 20050.3430.2420.2120.159
December 20050.3420.2410.2110.157
January 20060.3440.2440.2100.157
February 20060.3470.2450.2110.158
March 20060.3500.2440.2120.158
April 20060.3490.2450.2090.153
May 20060.3490.2470.2090.159
June 20060.3550.2460.2100.160
July 20060.3580.2490.2140.160
August 20060.3580.2490.2180.159
September 20060.3630.2530.2180.161
October 20060.3620.2570.2190.160
November 20060.3640.2560.2240.157
December 20060.3650.2610.2260.162
January 20070.3630.2620.2260.163
February 20070.3650.2650.2320.161
March 20070.3690.2690.2320.164
April 20070.3690.2640.2320.168
May 20070.3730.2650.2290.162
June 20070.3700.2660.2220.160
July 20070.3680.2660.2200.159
August 20070.3700.2700.2180.157
September 20070.3640.2640.2130.154
October 20070.3650.2610.2120.154
November 20070.3650.2580.2100.156
December 20070.3640.2550.2110.153
January 20080.3620.2520.2130.153
February 20080.3610.2480.2090.154
March 20080.3570.2460.2090.152
April 20080.3560.2480.2070.151
May 20080.3570.2480.2050.150
June 20080.3510.2440.2050.148
July 20080.3500.2410.2030.145
August 20080.3460.2370.2020.141
September 20080.3460.2340.1980.140
October 20080.3470.2330.1980.136
November 20080.3400.2310.1970.134
December 20080.3350.2280.1890.132
January 20090.3320.2230.1840.128
February 20090.3200.2180.1780.122
March 20090.3130.2130.1730.115
April 20090.3110.2090.1700.111
May 20090.3020.1990.1620.108
June 20090.3000.1950.1570.107
July 20090.2980.1950.1540.106
August 20090.2930.1890.1490.104
September 20090.2920.1850.1450.101
October 20090.2900.1800.1380.099
November 20090.2880.1790.1350.097
December 20090.2890.1770.1350.096
January 20100.2900.1770.1340.095
February 20100.2930.1760.1320.094
March 20100.2980.1780.1320.096
April 20100.3010.1800.1350.096
May 20100.3040.1830.1380.098
June 20100.3040.1840.1390.096
July 20100.3050.1830.1390.098
August 20100.3060.1840.1390.098

Note: CPS. Series 12-Month Moving Average. Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the NBER: January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.

Bottom panel
Unemployment Inflow and Outflow Rates by OECD Countries

Percent
Country Outflow Rate Inflow Rate
Australia22.81.7
Canada26.12.4
France7.70.7
Germany6.00.5
Ireland5.90.6
Italy4.30.4
Japan18.90.6
New Zealand28.51.7
Norway38.51.6
Portugal6.30.4
Spain6.31.1
Sweden29.21.2
United Kingdom13.91.0
United States56.53.6
United States (2010)24.572.61

Note: Elsby, Hobijn, Şahin (2009), OECD.


Exhibit 11
Summary

  • The following factors have had a measurable effect on the unemployment rate during 2007-2010:
    Estimated effect on U
    • Extended unemployment insurance benefits:
    + 0.4 to 1.7 percentage points
    (preferred estimate around + 0.8 percentage point)
    • Decline in the recruiting intensity of firms:
    + 1.4 percentage points
    • Skill mismatch across industries:
    + 0.8 percentage point
    • Skill mismatch across occupations:
    + 1.4 percentage points
    Note: These effects are not additive.

  • The following factors have had no measurable effect on the unemployment rate during 2007-2010:
    • House lock
    • Geographic mismatch
  • Problems facing the U.S. labor market are unlikely to be as severe as the European-style hysteresis problem of the 1980s.

Exhibit 12 - Last Exhibit
Board and Reserve Bank Staff Estimates

Top panel

Tealbook Boston New York Philadelphia Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago St. Louis Minneapolis Kansas City Dallas San Franciso
Pre-Crisis5.05.05.05.05.04.55.05.07.45.05.05.255.0
Current6.66.256.256.755.96.57.07.08.97.55.55.36.25
Increase1.61.251.251.75.92.02.02.01.52.5.5.051.25
2015*5.35.35.05.255.96.35.55.27.95.55.55.25.25

* St. Louis estimate is for 2013.  Return to table


Bottom-left panel
Distribution of Estimates

Pre-Crisis
Percent of labor force Number of estimates
4.51
5.010
5.251
7.41
Current
Percent of labor force Number of estimates
5.31
5.51
5.91
6.253
6.51
6.61
6.751
7.02
7.51
8.91
2015
Percent of labor force Number of estimates
5.01
5.22
5.34
5.53
5.91
6.31
7.91

Bottom-right panel
Estimated Increase

Pre-Crisis to Current
Percentage points Number of estimates
0.051
0.51
0.91
1.253
1.51
1.61
1.751
2.03
2.51



Appendix 2: Materials used by Mr. Sack

Material for
FOMC Presentation: Financial Market Developments and Desk Operations

Brian Sack
January 25, 2011

Class II FOMC - Restricted FR

Exhibit 1

Top-left panel
(1)

Title: Treasury Yields
Series: 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Treasury yields
Horizon: January 1, 2010 - January 21, 2011
Description: Treasury yields leveled out following their sharp increases in the last two months of 2010.

Source: Bloomberg

Top-right panel
(2)

Title: Implied Federal Funds Rate Path
Series: Future federal funds rates implied by Eurodollar and federal funds futures contracts
Horizon: 11/02/10 and 01/21/11
Description: The implied path of the fed funds rate increased since the November FOMC meeting.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Middle-left panel
(3)

Title: Cumulative Size of Asset Purchase Program
Series: FRBNY policy survey
Horizon: November Survey, January Survey
Description: The primary dealer survey shows that the expectations have solidified around $600 billion for the size of the program.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Survey

Middle-right panel
(4)

Title: 10-Year Term Premium* (Kim-Wright Model)
Series: 10-Year Term Premium (Kim-Wright Model)
Horizon: January 2000 - January 2011
Description: The Kim-Wright model estimated by the Board staff has returned the 10-year term premium to within its historical range.

* Based on zero coupon Treasury yield.  Return to text

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Bottom-left panel
(5)

Title: Breakeven Inflation Rates
Series: 5-year spot and 5-year, 5-year forward rate
Horizon: January 4, 2010 - January 21, 2011
Description: The forward rate has declined during the intermeeting period, while the 5-year spot rate has continued to increase.

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Bottom-right panel
(6)

Title: Treasury Debt Outstanding
Series: Current debt limit, projected path without SFP rolloff, and projected path with SFP rolloff
Horizon: October 1, 2010 - May 1, 2011
Description: If the Treasury reduces the balance of its Supplementary Finance Program, the date when the debt ceiling will be reached will be moved out to mid-April.

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors


Exhibit 2

Top-left panel
(7)

Title: S&P 500 Index
Series: S&P 500 index
Horizon: August 3, 2009 - January 21, 2011
Description: The S&P 500 has increased during the intermeeting period.

Source: Bloomberg

Top-right panel
(8)

Title: 5-Month Change in the S&P 500
Series: S&P 500
Horizon: January 1, 1995 - January 21, 2011
Description: The current 5-month change in the S&P 500 is about 22% -- a pace that has only been matched on a few occasions in the past 15 years.

Source: Bloomberg

Middle-left panel
(9)

Title: Corporate Bonds Spreads
Series: High yield and Investment grade yields
Horizon: August 3, 2009 - January 21, 2011
Description: Yield spreads narrowed for both investment-grade and high-yield issues during the intermeeting period.

Source: Bank of America

Middle-right panel
(10)

Title: CMBS and ABS Spreads
Series: Super senior AAA CMBS and AAA credit card ABS
Horizon: August 3, 2009 - January 21, 2011
Description: Spreads for CMBS have narrowed during the intermeeting period and ABS has remained at low levels.

Source: JPMorgan Chase

Bottom-left panel
(11)

Title: U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar
Series: Broad dollar
Horizon: August 3, 2009 - January 21, 2011
Description: The dollar depreciated against most currencies during the intermeeting period.

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Bloomberg

Bottom-right panel
(12)

Title: 3-Month Funding Spreads to OIS
Series: Euribor Panel (swapped to dollars) and Libor Panel
Horizon: August 3, 2009 - January 21, 2011
Description: The dollar funding rate that can be achieved through FX swaps declined notably during the intermeeting period.

Source: Bloomberg


Exhibit 3

Top-left panel
(13)

Title: Treasury Purchases by Maturity
Series: Treasury Purchases
Horizon: August 10, 2010 - January 21, 2011
Description: The Desk has conducted about $244 billion of purchases of Treasury securities.

As shown in the chart, approximate values are 1.5-2.5: 4.5%; 2.5-4: 20.5%; 4-5.5: 19.5%; 5.5-7: 22.5%; 7-10: 22.5%; 10-17: 2%; 17-30: 4%; TIPS: 3%.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Top-right panel
(14)

Title: Average Bid Size of 10-Year Treasury Note
Series: Bid size of 10-year Treasury note
Horizon: January 1, 2010 - January 21, 2011
Description: The bid size for the 10-year Treasury note has increased during the intermeeting period.

Source: BrokerTec

Middle-left panel
(15)

Title: Projected SOMA Reinvestments
Series: November FOMC, December FOMC, and January FOMC projected SOMA reinvestments
Horizon: January 2011 - June 2011
Description: The projected MBS prepayments decreased.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Middle-right panel
(16)

Title: Projected Size of Federal Reserve Securities Holdings*
Series: Median securities holdings
Horizon: 2009 -2015
Description: Market participants expect the FOMC to gradually shrink the SOMA portfolio over time.

* Values of end of year estimates.  Return to text

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Survey

Bottom-left panel
(17)

Title: Probability of Halting Reinvestments (Over 2 and 5 Year Horizons)
Series: Treasury, Agency, and MBS probabilities
Horizon: 2 and 5 year
Description: The odds assigned to halting reinvestments of principal payments in each of the asset classes within the next two years were sizable.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Survey

Bottom-right panel
(18)

Title: Probability of Asset Sales (Over 2 and 5 Year Horizons)
Series: Treasury, Agency, and MBS probabilities
Horizon: 2 and 5 year
Description: The odds of asset sales occurring within the next two years were much lower.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Survey


Exhibit 4

Top-left panel
(19)

Title: Balance Sheet Path under Baseline Scenario
Series: Total balance sheet path
Horizon: 2010 - 2020
Description: The balance sheet is expected to return to normal levels in 2016.

Source: Staff memo to FOMC

Top-right panel
(20)

Title: Interest Rate Path under Baseline Scenario
Series: 10-year Treasury Yield and Federal Funds Rate
Horizon: 2010 - 2020
Description: The federal funds rate is estimated to begin increasing in 2012 and level off at 4½ percent. The 10-year Treasury rate is estimated to increase immediately and level off at 5 percent.

Source: Staff memo to FOMC

Middle-left panel
(21)

Title: Net Portfolio Income under Baseline Scenario
Series: Funding cost, net coupon income, capital gains and losses*, and the total income
Horizon: 2010 - 2020
Description: SOMA income is elevated through 2013, falls, and again rises after 2018.

* Capital G/L represents the average between the FRBNY and the Board.  Return to text

Source: Staff memo to FOMC

Middle-right panel
(22)

Title: Treasury Remittances under Baseline Scenario
Series: Net portfolio income and remittances to Treasury under baseline
Horizon: 2010 - 2020
Description: Even at the lowest point, remittances to Treasury are projected to remain sizeable, at over $25 billion.

Source: Staff memo to FOMC

Bottom-left panel
(23)

Title: Effects of Higher Interest Rates on Treasury Remittances
Series: Baseline scenario and High rate scenario
Horizon: 2010 - 2020
Description: At higher rates the amount remitted to the Treasury could fall close to zero because of higher funding costs for the portfolio and larger capital losses on the assets sold.

Source: Staff memo to FOMC

Bottom-right panel
(24)

Title: Effects of Faster MBS Sales on Treasury Remittances
Series: Baseline scenario, Faster MBS sales with baseline rates, and Faster MBS sales with high rates
Horizon: 2010 - 2020
Description: Treasury remittances under the more aggressive scenario decline quicker.

Source: Staff memo to FOMC



Appendix 3: Materials used by Messrs. Reifschneider and Kamin, and Ms. Liang

Material for Staff Presentation on the Economic Outlook
January 25-26, 2011

Class II FOMC - Restricted (FR)

Exhibit 1
Recent Nonfinancial Indicators

Top-left panel
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Billions of chained (2005) dollars
Period Real PCE
December 20069219.08
January 20079227.11
February 20079234.92
March 20079243.50
April 20079261.78
May 20079276.41
June 20079273.19
July 20079289.02
August 20079315.01
September 20079325.98
October 20079326.32
November 20079344.95
December 20079355.48
January 20089340.00
February 20089309.94
March 20089322.27
April 20089331.87
May 20089326.93
June 20089319.88
July 20089267.08
August 20089256.39
September 20089206.97
October 20089186.87
November 20089182.19
December 20089129.79
January 20099175.89
February 20099161.06
March 20099125.45
April 20099114.56
May 20099117.96
June 20099118.41
July 20099131.27
August 20099212.69
September 20099140.85
October 20099171.05
November 20099178.18
December 20099199.34
January 20109189.31
February 20109228.20
March 20109258.61
April 20109257.18
May 20109280.51
June 20109289.27
July 20109302.59
August 20109333.95
September 20109355.42
October 20109400.26
November 20109427.03
December 2010 (staff estimate)9448.54
Quarterly averages
Billions of chained (2005) dollars
Period Real PCE
2010:Q19225.37
2010:Q29275.66
2010:Q39330.65
2010:Q4 (staff estimate)9425.28
[Inset]
Percent change, a.r.
2010:Q3 2010:Q4 2011:Q1
Current2.44.13.1
Dec. TB(2.0)(2.4)(2.7)

Top-right panel
Manufacturing IP

2007 = 100
Period Index
December 200698.63
January 200798.23
February 200798.82
March 200799.61
April 2007100.30
May 2007100.23
June 2007100.29
July 2007100.69
August 2007100.19
September 2007100.66
October 2007100.03
November 2007100.41
December 2007100.55
January 2008100.09
February 200899.57
March 200899.30
April 200898.12
May 200897.67
June 200897.06
July 200896.60
August 200895.73
September 200892.58
October 200892.29
November 200890.49
December 200888.08
January 200985.68
February 200985.58
March 200984.21
April 200983.78
May 200983.12
June 200982.98
July 200984.49
August 200985.65
September 200986.31
October 200986.39
November 200987.21
December 200987.34
January 201088.28
February 201088.10
March 201089.09
April 201089.98
May 201090.98
June 201090.82
July 201091.58
August 201091.69
September 201091.86
October 201092.26
November 201092.48
December 201092.89
[Inset]
Percent change, a.r.
2010:Q35.0
2010:Q43.7
2011:Q16.9

Middle-left panel
Single-family Housing Starts and Sales

Period New and existing sales*
(Millions of units, a.r.)
Starts
(Thousands of units, a.r.)
December 20066.611249
January 20076.531130
February 20076.531189
March 20076.181202
April 20076.081197
May 20075.981130
June 20075.831131
July 20075.751042
August 20075.50957
September 20075.17935
October 20075.13878
November 20075.08833
December 20074.98805
January 20085.03773
February 20084.93724
March 20084.91728
April 20084.87682
May 20084.88679
June 20084.81647
July 20084.83615
August 20084.79607
September 20085.03537
October 20084.72542
November 20084.43459
December 20084.62403
January 20094.42360
February 20094.56362
March 20094.48363
April 20094.53386
May 20094.61406
June 20094.73476
July 20094.94500
August 20094.89482
September 20095.32507
October 20095.63475
November 20096.08504
December 20095.12486
January 20104.78511
February 20104.71527
March 20105.08535
April 20105.47563
May 20105.26459
June 20104.93450
July 20103.65427
August 20103.88432
September 20104.28447
October 20104.17433
November 20104.44458

* December 2010 sales include staff estimate of new home sales.  Return to table

Middle-right panel
Change in Private Payroll Employment

Period Thousands
January 2007181.00
February 2007144.67
March 2007159.33
April 2007119.00
May 2007135.00
June 200778.00
July 200761.33
August 2007-17.33
September 2007-36.00
October 2007-19.33
November 200749.33
December 200761.67
January 200836.00
February 2008-24.67
March 2008-51.67
April 2008-101.33
May 2008-157.33
June 2008-214.67
July 2008-246.67
August 2008-278.00
September 2008-353.33
October 2008-450.00
November 2008-579.00
December 2008-649.33
January 2009-735.67
February 2009-726.67
March 2009-752.33
April 2009-700.00
May 2009-575.67
June 2009-478.33
July 2009-361.00
August 2009-321.33
September 2009-232.67
October 2009-221.00
November 2009-124.33
December 2009-90.00
January 20102.67
February 2010-1.67
March 201078.67
April 2010153.67
May 2010150.00
June 2010117.67
July 201076.33
August 2010107.00
September 2010124.00
October 2010149.33
November 2010128.00
December 2010128.33

Note: Three-month moving average.

Bottom-left panel
Near-term GDP Projection

(Percent change, annual rate)
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
1.Real GDP2.63.83.6
2.(Dec. TB)(2.7)(2.5)(3.4)
3.PDFP2.34.03.9
4.(Dec. GB)(2.6)(2.7)(3.5)

Bottom-right panel
Consumer Prices

Twelve-month percent change
Period Core CPI Core PCE Core market-based PCE
January 20072.672.542.37
February 20072.712.622.40
March 20072.452.482.21
April 20072.342.342.10
May 20072.242.221.98
June 20072.222.161.90
July 20072.212.231.92
August 20072.132.161.78
September 20072.142.251.87
October 20072.172.292.00
November 20072.332.422.17
December 20072.442.502.30
January 20082.472.322.18
February 20082.272.222.11
March 20082.352.382.23
April 20082.262.452.23
May 20082.312.552.29
June 20082.412.632.39
July 20082.512.642.53
August 20082.542.572.59
September 20082.472.432.56
October 20082.222.172.37
November 20082.002.022.24
December 20081.761.782.02
January 20091.681.632.00
February 20091.791.622.08
March 20091.761.472.09
April 20091.901.542.20
May 20091.831.482.12
June 20091.731.422.03
July 20091.531.321.81
August 20091.441.321.77
September 20091.511.331.70
October 20091.711.601.75
November 20091.701.671.73
December 20091.821.781.75
January 20101.551.791.58
February 20101.341.751.41
March 20101.111.781.28
April 20100.921.541.11
May 20100.941.481.10
June 20100.901.371.09
July 20100.871.321.12
August 20100.891.241.08
September 20100.801.090.95
October 20100.610.830.70
November 20100.770.800.75
December 20100.800.780.78

Note: December 2010 values for core PCE prices and core market-based PCE prices are staff estimates.


Exhibit 2
Medium-term Outlook for Real Activity and Inflation

Top-left panel
Real GDP

Four-quarter percent change
Period December Tealbook January Tealbook
20090.200.20
20102.672.95
Forecast
20113.733.85
20124.444.45

Top-right panel
Unemployment Rate

Percent
Period Current December Tealbook
2007:Q14.50ND
2007:Q24.48ND
2007:Q34.65ND
2007:Q44.80ND
2008:Q14.95ND
2008:Q25.31ND
2008:Q36.03ND
2008:Q46.91ND
2009:Q18.22ND
2009:Q29.28ND
2009:Q39.68ND
2009:Q410.00ND
2010:Q19.69ND
2010:Q29.65ND
2010:Q39.58ND
2010:Q49.629.72
2011:Q19.469.55
2011:Q29.349.37
2011:Q39.149.14
2011:Q48.938.93
2012:Q18.728.79
2012:Q28.438.58
2012:Q38.138.29
2012:Q47.848.00

70% confidence interval begins in 2010:Q4 at about 9.62 and ends in 2012:Q4 at about [6.9,8.8].
90% confidence interval begins in 2010:Q4 at about 9.62 and ends in 2012:Q4 at about [6.3,9.4].

Middle-left panel
Core PCE Prices

Four-quarter percent change
Period Current December Tealbook
2007:Q12.55ND
2007:Q22.24ND
2007:Q32.21ND
2007:Q42.40ND
2008:Q12.31ND
2008:Q22.54ND
2008:Q32.54ND
2008:Q41.99ND
2009:Q11.57ND
2009:Q21.48ND
2009:Q31.32ND
2009:Q41.69ND
2010:Q11.77ND
2010:Q21.46ND
2010:Q31.22ND
2010:Q40.840.92
2011:Q10.760.87
2011:Q20.750.84
2011:Q30.870.86
2011:Q40.970.90
2012:Q10.990.88
2012:Q21.000.88
2012:Q31.000.89
2012:Q41.020.93

70% confidence interval begins in 2010:Q4 at about 0.84 and ends in 2012:Q4 at about [0.25,1.9].
90% confidence interval begins in 2010:Q4 at about 0.84 and ends in 2012:Q4 at about [-0.2,2.3].

Middle-right panel
Dispersion of SPF Forecasts

Percentage points
Period GDP growth over the next 4 quarters CPI inflation over the next 10 years
20060.410.49
20070.530.45
20080.930.54
20090.800.57
20100.460.72

Note: Standard deviation of projections across participants in SPF surveys released in the fourth quarter.

Bottom-left panel
Real Federal Funds Rate

Period Percent
1960:Q11.86
1960:Q21.75
1960:Q31.24
1960:Q40.85
1961:Q10.69
1961:Q20.49
1961:Q30.40
1961:Q41.20
1962:Q11.05
1962:Q21.15
1962:Q31.52
1962:Q41.67
1963:Q11.76
1963:Q21.78
1963:Q32.09
1963:Q41.90
1964:Q11.80
1964:Q21.87
1964:Q31.92
1964:Q42.27
1965:Q12.73
1965:Q22.84
1965:Q32.82
1965:Q42.84
1966:Q13.09
1966:Q22.93
1966:Q32.90
1966:Q42.50
1967:Q11.71
1967:Q21.03
1967:Q30.86
1967:Q41.01
1968:Q11.04
1968:Q21.72
1968:Q31.47
1968:Q41.26
1969:Q11.93
1969:Q23.65
1969:Q34.26
1969:Q44.20
1970:Q13.84
1970:Q23.24
1970:Q32.12
1970:Q40.75
1971:Q1-1.14
1971:Q2-0.46
1971:Q30.63
1971:Q40.77
1972:Q1-0.13
1972:Q21.10
1972:Q31.74
1972:Q42.08
1973:Q13.75
1973:Q24.31
1973:Q36.46
1973:Q45.11
1974:Q13.39
1974:Q24.14
1974:Q33.37
1974:Q4-0.51
1975:Q1-3.81
1975:Q2-3.67
1975:Q3-1.50
1975:Q4-1.38
1976:Q1-1.50
1976:Q2-0.78
1976:Q3-0.76
1976:Q4-1.10
1977:Q1-1.46
1977:Q2-1.31
1977:Q3-0.77
1977:Q40.03
1978:Q10.35
1978:Q20.66
1978:Q31.42
1978:Q42.56
1979:Q13.30
1979:Q22.92
1979:Q33.56
1979:Q45.90
1980:Q16.25
1980:Q23.80
1980:Q30.55
1980:Q46.20
1981:Q17.17
1981:Q28.75
1981:Q38.97
1981:Q45.67
1982:Q17.11
1982:Q27.97
1982:Q34.72
1982:Q43.37
1983:Q12.83
1983:Q23.57
1983:Q34.31
1983:Q44.90
1984:Q15.52
1984:Q25.98
1984:Q37.41
1984:Q45.37
1985:Q14.36
1985:Q24.21
1985:Q34.28
1985:Q44.37
1986:Q14.22
1986:Q23.21
1986:Q32.40
1986:Q42.33
1987:Q12.45
1987:Q22.90
1987:Q33.03
1987:Q43.05
1988:Q12.68
1988:Q22.83
1988:Q33.49
1988:Q43.93
1989:Q14.79
1989:Q25.40
1989:Q35.24
1989:Q44.92
1990:Q14.47
1990:Q24.02
1990:Q33.59
1990:Q43.25
1991:Q12.16
1991:Q22.08
1991:Q31.89
1991:Q41.04
1992:Q10.32
1992:Q20.17
1992:Q30.05
1992:Q40.07
1993:Q10.48
1993:Q20.54
1993:Q30.76
1993:Q40.85
1994:Q11.13
1994:Q21.85
1994:Q32.18
1994:Q42.81
1995:Q13.37
1995:Q23.63
1995:Q33.59
1995:Q43.54
1996:Q13.34
1996:Q23.36
1996:Q33.42
1996:Q43.31
1997:Q13.25
1997:Q23.41
1997:Q33.66
1997:Q43.85
1998:Q14.01
1998:Q24.16
1998:Q34.06
1998:Q43.39
1999:Q13.21
1999:Q23.25
1999:Q33.64
1999:Q43.82
2000:Q13.96
2000:Q24.60
2000:Q34.78
2000:Q44.65
2001:Q13.78
2001:Q22.43
2001:Q31.79
2001:Q40.40
2002:Q10.27
2002:Q20.08
2002:Q3-0.23
2002:Q4-0.37
2003:Q1-0.46
2003:Q2-0.25
2003:Q3-0.40
2003:Q4-0.48
2004:Q1-0.84
2004:Q2-1.11
2004:Q3-0.75
2004:Q4-0.28
2005:Q10.13
2005:Q20.71
2005:Q31.32
2005:Q41.64
2006:Q12.34
2006:Q22.61
2006:Q32.79
2006:Q42.94
2007:Q12.71
2007:Q23.01
2007:Q32.86
2007:Q42.09
2008:Q10.88
2008:Q2-0.46
2008:Q3-0.60
2008:Q4-1.48
2009:Q1-1.39
2009:Q2-1.30
2009:Q3-1.16
2009:Q4-1.57
2010:Q1-1.64
2010:Q2-1.27
2010:Q3-1.03
2010:Q4-0.65
Forecast
2011:Q1-0.63
2011:Q2-0.62
2011:Q3-0.75
2011:Q4-0.84
2012:Q1-0.87
2012:Q2-0.87
2012:Q3-0.87
2012:Q4-0.90
2013:Q1-0.69
2013:Q2-0.32
2013:Q30.09
2013:Q40.50
2014:Q10.92
2014:Q21.36
2014:Q31.76
2014:Q42.10
2015:Q12.27
2015:Q22.36
2015:Q32.43
2015:Q42.51
2016:Q12.58
2016:Q22.65
2016:Q32.71
2016:Q42.75

Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the NBER: April 1960-February 1961, December 1969-November 1970, November 1973-March 1975, January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.

Bottom-right panel
Unemployment Effects of Asset Purchases*

Percentage points
Period Original 2009 program Original program with reinvestment Current program
2009:Q10.000.000.00
2009:Q2-0.03-0.03-0.03
2009:Q3-0.12-0.12-0.12
2009:Q4-0.24-0.24-0.24
2010:Q1-0.37-0.37-0.37
2010:Q2-0.50-0.50-0.50
2010:Q3-0.61-0.62-0.62
2010:Q4-0.70-0.74-0.75
2011:Q1-0.78-0.85-0.89
2011:Q2-0.85-0.96-1.04
2011:Q3-0.90-1.04-1.18
2011:Q4-0.93-1.12-1.29
2012:Q1-0.95-1.17-1.39
2012:Q2-0.96-1.21-1.46
2012:Q3-0.96-1.23-1.51
2012:Q4-0.94-1.23-1.53
2013:Q1-0.92-1.21-1.52
2013:Q2-0.88-1.18-1.50
2013:Q3-0.83-1.14-1.45
2013:Q4-0.78-1.08-1.39
2014:Q1-0.73-1.01-1.32
2014:Q2-0.67-0.94-1.23
2014:Q3-0.60-0.86-1.14
2014:Q4-0.54-0.78-1.04
2015:Q1-0.48-0.70-0.94
2015:Q2-0.42-0.62-0.83
2015:Q3-0.36-0.54-0.73
2015:Q4-0.31-0.47-0.63
2016:Q1-0.25-0.39-0.54

* Based on FRB/US simulations, assuming no offsetting changes in the medium-term path of the federal funds rate.  Return to text


Exhibit 3
The Pace of Recovery

Top-left panel
Forces Shaping the Recovery

Supportive factors
  • Capital demands
  • Diminishing drag from wealth losses
  • Increasing credit availability
Hindering factors
  • Housing sector troubles
  • Non-residential construction
  • Fading impetus from fiscal policy

Top-right panel
Capital Stocks

Four-quarter percent change
Period Consumer durable goods Business equipment and software
1960ND2.90
19611.652.21
19623.723.47
19634.754.04
19645.765.28
19657.447.25
19667.788.60
19676.356.64
19687.566.48
19696.356.74
19704.285.17
19715.554.28
19726.845.35
19737.737.30
19744.486.30
19753.803.44
19765.513.67
19776.195.08
19786.046.44
19794.676.60
19801.894.48
19811.864.18
19821.702.14
19834.652.22
19846.784.28
19857.303.99
19867.803.16
19876.562.46
19886.222.95
19895.333.19
19904.022.40
19911.911.48
19922.651.90
19933.353.24
19944.034.24
19953.965.05
19964.405.49
19974.936.17
19986.286.91
19997.697.41
20007.927.39
20017.354.42
20027.332.57
20036.872.25
20046.622.85
20056.193.48
20065.614.14
20075.173.87
20082.912.40
20091.39-0.83
20102.691.37
Forecast
20114.202.98
20125.484.21

Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the NBER: April 1960-February 1961, December 1969-November 1970, November 1973-March 1975, January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.

Middle-left panel
Direct Contribution of Wealth to Real PCE Growth

Period Four-quarter percent change
2008-0.53
2009-2.31
2010-1.20
Forecast
2011-0.56
2012-0.28

Middle-right panel
Decomposition of Cyclical Recoveries

Average Current
Real GDP expansion*9.76.5
Selected contributions (p.p.):
Housing1.30.0
Nonres. Structures0.0-0.5
S&L purchases0.4-0.2

* Percent change in real GDP, eight quarters after the trough.  Return to table

Bottom-left panel
Fiscal Impetus

Four-quarter percent change
Period Federal State/local Total
20081.08-0.061.02
20091.22-0.620.60
20100.67-0.420.25
Forecast
20110.130.260.39
2012-0.950.56-0.39

Bottom-right panel
State and Local Tax Receipts

Period Four-quarter percent change
1997:Q15.64
1997:Q24.96
1997:Q36.13
1997:Q45.98
1998:Q16.17
1998:Q26.80
1998:Q35.63
1998:Q45.44
1999:Q15.22
1999:Q24.91
1999:Q36.07
1999:Q46.66
2000:Q17.45
2000:Q28.24
2000:Q35.51
2000:Q44.05
2001:Q14.10
2001:Q23.25
2001:Q30.91
2001:Q41.18
2002:Q1-0.70
2002:Q2-1.74
2002:Q34.33
2002:Q44.51
2003:Q14.42
2003:Q24.44
2003:Q35.45
2003:Q46.73
2004:Q18.04
2004:Q29.23
2004:Q37.70
2004:Q48.48
2005:Q110.22
2005:Q210.61
2005:Q39.57
2005:Q48.82
2006:Q18.52
2006:Q28.61
2006:Q37.05
2006:Q45.48
2007:Q15.85
2007:Q25.16
2007:Q34.89
2007:Q44.79
2008:Q12.38
2008:Q23.00
2008:Q32.21
2008:Q4-1.78
2009:Q1-4.48
2009:Q2-9.01
2009:Q3-5.51
2009:Q4-0.51
2010:Q13.58
2010:Q26.92
2010:Q35.10
Forecast
2010:Q44.38
2011:Q13.48
2011:Q24.74
2011:Q34.74
2011:Q44.72
2012:Q15.41
2012:Q25.49
2012:Q35.52
2012:Q45.68

Exhibit 4
Household Saving, Sentiment, and Credit Conditions

Top panel
Personal Saving Rate

Percent
Period History and TB staff projection Reduced-form model projection, starting in 1979:Q4
1980:Q19.009.11
1980:Q29.808.92
1980:Q39.909.22
1980:Q410.509.84
1981:Q19.709.76
1981:Q29.609.29
1981:Q311.1010.83
1981:Q411.9011.33
1982:Q111.3010.68
1982:Q211.5011.06
1982:Q311.2011.10
1982:Q49.8010.71
1983:Q19.609.99
1983:Q28.509.27
1983:Q38.209.21
1983:Q48.609.55
1984:Q19.8010.18
1984:Q210.1010.56
1984:Q310.7010.92
1984:Q410.4010.92
1985:Q18.609.79
1985:Q29.4010.30
1985:Q37.108.99
1985:Q47.808.92
1986:Q18.209.07
1986:Q28.209.12
1986:Q37.208.47
1986:Q46.707.71
1987:Q17.507.47
1987:Q25.305.78
1987:Q36.006.41
1987:Q47.107.10
1988:Q16.807.35
1988:Q27.007.34
1988:Q37.007.33
1988:Q46.807.36
1989:Q17.407.58
1989:Q26.606.87
1989:Q36.206.84
1989:Q46.406.87
1990:Q16.406.82
1990:Q26.706.86
1990:Q36.406.87
1990:Q46.506.55
1991:Q17.006.55
1991:Q27.006.59
1991:Q36.806.30
1991:Q47.406.55
1992:Q17.407.27
1992:Q27.607.30
1992:Q37.007.00
1992:Q47.407.30
1993:Q15.605.31
1993:Q26.205.92
1993:Q35.405.57
1993:Q46.006.04
1994:Q14.605.11
1994:Q25.405.57
1994:Q35.305.67
1994:Q45.605.89
1995:Q16.106.04
1995:Q25.205.60
1995:Q35.005.58
1995:Q44.805.44
1996:Q14.905.69
1996:Q24.805.86
1996:Q35.005.60
1996:Q44.705.34
1997:Q14.605.17
1997:Q24.904.83
1997:Q34.404.71
1997:Q44.604.75
1998:Q15.805.48
1998:Q25.505.18
1998:Q35.205.01
1998:Q44.504.66
1999:Q14.303.87
1999:Q23.002.97
1999:Q32.402.23
1999:Q42.602.62
2000:Q13.102.81
2000:Q23.102.50
2000:Q33.102.36
2000:Q42.401.52
2001:Q12.802.11
2001:Q22.101.51
2001:Q34.203.14
2001:Q41.602.34
2002:Q14.003.39
2002:Q24.003.13
2002:Q33.102.29
2002:Q43.102.43
2003:Q13.102.60
2003:Q23.503.45
2003:Q33.603.82
2003:Q43.603.37
2004:Q13.202.95
2004:Q23.603.01
2004:Q33.302.59
2004:Q43.603.27
2005:Q11.601.14
2005:Q21.301.02
2005:Q31.200.94
2005:Q41.500.95
2006:Q12.201.46
2006:Q22.501.67
2006:Q32.301.30
2006:Q42.501.56
2007:Q12.301.18
2007:Q22.000.59
2007:Q31.800.36
2007:Q42.100.62
2008:Q12.700.95
2008:Q24.803.03
2008:Q33.601.06
2008:Q45.202.75
2009:Q15.403.71
2009:Q27.205.31
2009:Q35.604.22
2009:Q45.504.17
2010:Q15.503.73
2010:Q26.204.55
2010:Q35.904.59
Forecast
2010:Q45.384.54
2011:Q15.864.98
2011:Q25.855.17
2011:Q35.875.22
2011:Q45.975.37
2012:Q15.164.62
2012:Q25.194.59
2012:Q35.204.64
2012:Q45.224.71

Middle-left panel
Consumer Sentiment

2000:Q4 = 100
Period Index
2000:Q1110.13
2000:Q2108.77
2000:Q3107.47
2000:Q4103.93
2001:Q192.27
2001:Q291.00
2001:Q388.57
2001:Q485.13
2002:Q193.13
2002:Q294.10
2002:Q387.27
2002:Q483.83
2003:Q179.97
2003:Q289.27
2003:Q389.30
2003:Q491.97
2004:Q198.00
2004:Q293.33
2004:Q395.60
2004:Q493.87
2005:Q194.07
2005:Q290.20
2005:Q387.50
2005:Q482.43
2006:Q188.93
2006:Q283.80
2006:Q384.03
2006:Q492.47
2007:Q192.20
2007:Q286.90
2007:Q385.73
2007:Q477.50
2008:Q172.90
2008:Q259.60
2008:Q364.83
2008:Q457.67
2009:Q158.27
2009:Q268.20
2009:Q368.40
2009:Q470.17
2010:Q173.87
2010:Q273.93
2010:Q368.30
2010:Q471.27
Forecast
2011:Q176.00
2011:Q279.18
2011:Q382.61
2011:Q486.18
2012:Q188.29
2012:Q289.75
2012:Q390.99
2012:Q491.84

Source: Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers.

Middle-right panel
Willingness to Make Consumer Loans

Period Diffusion Index
1984:Q137.00
1984:Q224.00
1984:Q321.00
1984:Q425.00
1985:Q133.00
1985:Q239.00
1985:Q326.00
1985:Q419.00
1986:Q145.00
1986:Q244.00
1986:Q342.00
1986:Q421.00
1987:Q119.00
1987:Q225.00
1987:Q332.00
1987:Q413.00
1988:Q112.00
1988:Q217.00
1988:Q310.00
1988:Q425.00
1989:Q116.00
1989:Q226.00
1989:Q37.00
1989:Q43.00
1990:Q17.00
1990:Q29.00
1990:Q312.00
1990:Q42.00
1991:Q1-15.00
1991:Q22.00
1991:Q30.00
1991:Q411.00
1992:Q19.00
1992:Q222.00
1992:Q321.00
1992:Q416.30
1993:Q118.00
1993:Q228.10
1993:Q325.90
1993:Q418.90
1994:Q132.70
1994:Q230.90
1994:Q321.40
1994:Q425.00
1995:Q116.10
1995:Q221.70
1995:Q37.00
1995:Q45.40
1996:Q17.10
1996:Q2-2.00
1996:Q3-6.10
1996:Q4-3.80
1997:Q11.90
1997:Q20.00
1997:Q310.40
1997:Q410.00
1998:Q10.00
1998:Q22.00
1998:Q311.80
1998:Q45.80
1999:Q113.50
1999:Q214.50
1999:Q311.40
1999:Q49.80
2000:Q13.90
2000:Q2-3.70
2000:Q31.90
2000:Q41.80
2001:Q1-5.50
2001:Q20.00
2001:Q30.00
2001:Q4-7.10
2002:Q1-5.70
2002:Q21.80
2002:Q39.30
2002:Q45.50
2003:Q15.30
2003:Q23.70
2003:Q316.40
2003:Q416.10
2004:Q111.30
2004:Q217.00
2004:Q310.90
2004:Q414.80
2005:Q113.50
2005:Q215.70
2005:Q323.00
2005:Q43.70
2006:Q111.50
2006:Q214.50
2006:Q37.70
2006:Q41.90
2007:Q11.80
2007:Q29.90
2007:Q30.00
2007:Q4-4.00
2008:Q1-15.10
2008:Q2-22.60
2008:Q3-36.00
2008:Q4-58.49
2009:Q1-20.00
2009:Q2-3.92
2009:Q3-8.00
2009:Q4-3.77
2010:Q17.69
2010:Q214.00
2010:Q322.64
2010:Q421.82

Source: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey.

Bottom-left panel
Credit Card Solicitations

Monthly
Mailings per household
Period Low income Middle income High income
January 20022.786.635.33
February 20022.986.606.11
March 20023.126.895.50
April 20023.618.096.24
May 20023.157.616.04
June 20023.368.136.03
July 20022.986.985.72
August 20023.677.716.35
September 20023.416.675.05
October 20023.177.886.11
November 20023.137.065.25
December 20022.755.874.69
January 20032.846.184.21
February 20032.596.204.51
March 20032.576.514.38
April 20032.926.835.36
May 20032.245.184.03
June 20031.995.284.27
July 20032.375.444.25
August 20032.655.974.93
September 20032.435.504.11
October 20032.295.944.48
November 20032.275.744.35
December 20032.646.274.79
January 20042.265.244.09
February 20042.897.365.53
March 20042.757.105.47
April 20042.606.904.82
May 20042.506.624.57
June 20042.807.945.36
July 20043.066.964.89
August 20042.776.774.87
September 20042.916.044.60
October 20042.896.474.45
November 20043.186.984.13
December 20043.225.974.45
January 20052.916.184.98
February 20053.056.354.59
March 20053.166.374.76
April 20053.036.814.19
May 20053.296.834.86
June 20054.038.535.76
July 20053.767.244.91
August 20053.938.094.71
September 20053.628.166.36
October 20053.618.155.01
November 20053.597.024.92
December 20053.536.814.05
January 20063.477.114.45
February 20063.317.255.10
March 20063.767.314.83
April 20063.577.074.48
May 20063.677.125.05
June 20064.207.725.08
July 20063.467.205.33
August 20063.697.255.10
September 20063.477.585.07
October 20063.416.965.26
November 20063.496.934.81
December 20063.626.434.50
January 20073.757.305.06
February 20073.576.944.58
March 20072.976.023.68
April 20073.426.273.29
May 20073.486.433.91
June 20073.265.723.90
July 20073.746.074.52
August 20073.516.263.94
September 20073.055.733.62
October 20073.346.654.47
November 20072.915.654.10
December 20072.905.063.81
January 20082.505.914.28
February 20082.265.223.95
March 20082.385.294.53
April 20082.055.154.09
May 20082.175.114.41
June 20082.014.754.05
July 20081.574.463.91
August 20081.634.673.92
September 20081.574.253.54
October 20081.323.662.75
November 20081.112.752.65
December 20080.902.292.01
January 20090.581.641.56
February 20090.481.251.34
March 20090.571.351.62
April 20090.511.341.25
May 20090.501.211.29
June 20090.471.371.39
July 20090.461.191.24
August 20090.531.161.41
September 20090.531.231.24
October 20090.741.561.60
November 20090.812.041.91
December 20090.831.551.44
January 20101.242.712.66
February 20101.162.682.50
March 20101.052.552.36
April 20101.313.063.00
May 20101.393.512.79
June 20101.343.642.95
July 20101.463.723.10
August 20101.534.573.33
September 20101.774.002.91
October 20101.694.053.35
November 20101.704.293.31

Note: Low-income, middle-income, and high-income households earn less than $45,000, between $45,000 and $100,000, and more than $100,000, respectively.

Source: Mintel.

Bottom-right panel
Measures of Household Debt Burden

Quarterly
Ratio
Period Debt service ratio* Debt/DPI
1980:Q10.110.68
1980:Q20.110.68
1980:Q30.110.67
1980:Q40.110.66
1981:Q10.110.65
1981:Q20.110.66
1981:Q30.110.65
1981:Q40.110.65
1982:Q10.110.64
1982:Q20.110.64
1982:Q30.110.63
1982:Q40.110.64
1983:Q10.110.62
1983:Q20.110.63
1983:Q30.110.64
1983:Q40.110.64
1984:Q10.110.63
1984:Q20.110.63
1984:Q30.110.64
1984:Q40.110.65
1985:Q10.110.67
1985:Q20.120.68
1985:Q30.120.71
1985:Q40.120.72
1986:Q10.120.72
1986:Q20.120.73
1986:Q30.120.75
1986:Q40.120.77
1987:Q10.120.75
1987:Q20.120.78
1987:Q30.120.78
1987:Q40.120.78
1988:Q10.120.77
1988:Q20.120.78
1988:Q30.120.79
1988:Q40.120.79
1989:Q10.120.79
1989:Q20.120.80
1989:Q30.120.81
1989:Q40.120.82
1990:Q10.120.81
1990:Q20.120.81
1990:Q30.120.82
1990:Q40.120.83
1991:Q10.120.82
1991:Q20.120.83
1991:Q30.120.83
1991:Q40.120.83
1992:Q10.110.82
1992:Q20.110.81
1992:Q30.110.82
1992:Q40.110.82
1993:Q10.110.83
1993:Q20.110.82
1993:Q30.110.84
1993:Q40.110.84
1994:Q10.110.84
1994:Q20.110.84
1994:Q30.110.84
1994:Q40.110.85
1995:Q10.110.85
1995:Q20.110.86
1995:Q30.120.87
1995:Q40.120.87
1996:Q10.120.87
1996:Q20.120.87
1996:Q30.120.88
1996:Q40.120.88
1997:Q10.120.87
1997:Q20.120.88
1997:Q30.120.88
1997:Q40.120.88
1998:Q10.120.87
1998:Q20.120.87
1998:Q30.120.88
1998:Q40.120.89
1999:Q10.120.89
1999:Q20.120.91
1999:Q30.120.92
1999:Q40.120.92
2000:Q10.120.90
2000:Q20.120.91
2000:Q30.120.92
2000:Q40.130.94
2001:Q10.130.94
2001:Q20.130.96
2001:Q30.130.96
2001:Q40.131.00
2002:Q10.130.99
2002:Q20.131.00
2002:Q30.131.02
2002:Q40.131.05
2003:Q10.131.06
2003:Q20.131.08
2003:Q30.131.09
2003:Q40.131.11
2004:Q10.131.12
2004:Q20.131.13
2004:Q30.131.15
2004:Q40.131.16
2005:Q10.141.19
2005:Q20.141.21
2005:Q30.141.22
2005:Q40.141.24
2006:Q10.141.24
2006:Q20.141.26
2006:Q30.141.27
2006:Q40.141.28
2007:Q10.141.28
2007:Q20.141.29
2007:Q30.141.30
2007:Q40.141.30
2008:Q10.141.29
2008:Q20.131.25
2008:Q30.131.26
2008:Q40.141.27
2009:Q10.131.26
2009:Q20.131.24
2009:Q30.131.24
2009:Q40.131.22
2010:Q10.121.20
2010:Q20.121.18
2010:Q30.121.18
Forecast
2010:Q40.121.16
2011:Q10.111.14
2011:Q20.111.13
2011:Q30.111.11
2011:Q40.111.10
2012:Q10.111.10
2012:Q20.111.10
2012:Q30.111.09
2012:Q40.111.08

* Debt service ratio is debt service payments (principal and interest) relative to disposable personal income.  Return to table

Source: Flow of Funds Accounts.


Exhibit 5
European Developments

Top-left panel
Sovereign Bond Spreads*

Basis points
Date Greece Ireland Portugal Spain Italy
1 January 2010238.7145.169.059.175.5
4 January 2010233.1138.067.357.971.7
5 January 2010227.9141.867.659.272.8
6 January 2010227.1151.269.162.273.9
7 January 2010227.3144.867.361.372.4
8 January 2010220.0140.261.257.069.3
11 January 2010217.5140.665.861.671.0
12 January 2010234.5144.269.463.574.2
13 January 2010257.7151.576.465.978.6
14 January 2010277.6157.488.669.880.6
15 January 2010273.4156.792.970.481.1
18 January 2010268.1156.994.372.581.2
19 January 2010264.3147.492.373.178.6
20 January 2010293.8161.3104.479.685.2
21 January 2010288.1156.7104.480.286.8
22 January 2010304.8159.5109.281.586.3
25 January 2010297.7149.798.074.082.9
26 January 2010303.7149.793.382.681.7
27 January 2010355.6155.8105.590.388.6
28 January 2010396.1165.4121.698.694.8
29 January 2010365.8165.1121.492.491.9
1 February 2010344.0162.1120.784.286.3
2 February 2010353.6160.8129.186.186.1
3 February 2010349.7162.7147.088.985.6
4 February 2010352.7166.4159.296.790.1
5 February 2010350.5174.4161.3100.194.4
8 February 2010362.5178.7162.799.995.0
9 February 2010324.4169.3147.490.990.1
10 February 2010282.8156.0135.279.082.4
11 February 2010273.2146.0118.476.080.8
12 February 2010296.1149.3123.979.686.3
15 February 2010304.9153.4123.482.386.0
16 February 2010320.4154.7125.081.085.5
17 February 2010318.4154.6118.480.285.2
18 February 2010329.3151.2117.577.881.7
19 February 2010317.5147.5112.175.180.8
22 February 2010315.6144.8110.072.682.0
23 February 2010332.0146.6111.774.486.2
24 February 2010338.9150.7114.675.688.8
25 February 2010355.1155.7117.479.693.6
26 February 2010326.1150.9111.476.089.5
1 March 2010316.0143.398.671.386.9
2 March 2010304.7140.994.473.885.3
3 March 2010285.8139.491.673.283.0
4 March 2010297.0139.593.575.183.6
5 March 2010291.1135.591.070.979.9
8 March 2010306.0133.789.368.478.9
9 March 2010313.2134.693.471.080.3
10 March 2010309.3129.688.168.878.0
11 March 2010314.8128.5106.069.377.9
12 March 2010305.9127.9106.869.979.1
15 March 2010305.5129.8110.471.979.7
16 March 2010299.9129.3111.171.779.5
17 March 2010299.7135.0114.773.680.5
18 March 2010313.7137.9116.275.881.9
19 March 2010323.9141.3120.677.684.5
22 March 2010337.3144.9125.878.486.4
23 March 2010324.9142.7123.976.885.4
24 March 2010328.2149.6125.975.484.1
25 March 2010312.8143.2123.871.778.4
26 March 2010305.2139.9114.468.577.2
29 March 2010316.1138.5114.269.578.6
30 March 2010333.1138.7116.070.978.7
31 March 2010343.7138.3112.772.488.9
1 April 2010345.5134.8108.771.786.4
2 April 2010345.7134.2108.171.386.0
5 April 2010345.2134.3107.971.685.8
6 April 2010383.9135.7110.273.687.0
7 April 2010405.0137.1116.275.688.5
8 April 2010426.8139.7127.876.489.1
9 April 2010398.5135.3119.971.583.3
12 April 2010349.5131.4116.766.780.9
13 April 2010366.5134.3120.470.483.4
14 April 2010394.0138.5129.272.084.8
15 April 2010400.6141.6126.371.684.1
16 April 2010430.3147.4139.474.886.5
19 April 2010453.5152.5151.876.587.2
20 April 2010478.3146.6154.876.586.4
21 April 2010501.4152.4169.379.189.5
22 April 2010578.7172.4190.688.894.7
23 April 2010559.5171.4191.092.094.8
26 April 2010651.5186.7218.2100.597.7
27 April 2010675.1216.9277.0112.5110.9
28 April 2010693.4224.7277.2108.2107.7
29 April 2010597.4210.6241.599.1100.7
30 April 2010594.5210.0212.2101.399.8
3 May 2010543.6204.8207.097.193.7
4 May 2010644.8233.8252.0115.6105.8
5 May 2010731.1270.4294.5131.7120.5
6 May 2010851.6300.2334.7162.9148.9
7 May 2010965.2305.9348.8164.2147.1
10 May 2010481.1176.8169.697.2101.4
11 May 2010450.6164.9158.999.0101.6
12 May 2010430.1163.1164.097.299.1
13 May 2010441.6163.7162.899.092.7
14 May 2010485.4174.2179.0108.4104.3
17 May 2010519.2183.5183.9112.4103.6
18 May 2010473.4179.3179.2116.9106.7
19 May 2010505.6182.2182.7125.8112.7
20 May 2010509.6196.3193.3138.6127.4
21 May 2010515.8200.5197.5138.6126.8
24 May 2010513.3201.0197.0140.5125.4
25 May 2010514.8215.3204.4155.7138.0
26 May 2010505.2216.6205.5155.2137.4
27 May 2010500.0214.2200.6152.4139.5
28 May 2010498.5214.6202.3153.0145.3
31 May 2010504.7214.7202.1159.8148.4
1 June 2010517.5223.0211.0165.2149.8
2 June 2010536.9229.2225.2176.7159.7
3 June 2010540.4233.1235.6184.2161.5
4 June 2010555.7252.5254.6194.4167.0
7 June 2010556.0258.6263.7203.8176.8
8 June 2010560.7258.3271.6208.2178.1
9 June 2010558.5253.5266.7200.4157.2
10 June 2010553.1248.8255.2186.5141.1
11 June 2010561.6254.3253.4189.6146.2
14 June 2010570.1263.6258.8204.2144.2
15 June 2010640.8281.0277.7206.4136.7
16 June 2010667.0289.3293.9221.1138.0
17 June 2010667.6290.0292.4211.1136.1
18 June 2010669.2281.1287.5186.3124.7
21 June 2010672.1269.6285.7169.8121.4
22 June 2010710.6271.7293.1182.5132.6
23 June 2010772.1281.0307.7189.3140.5
24 June 2010780.8285.8309.6185.0143.1
25 June 2010780.7291.0312.6185.3146.8
28 June 2010800.2295.5313.5195.1153.9
29 June 2010789.3295.1316.4205.0157.1
30 June 2010784.9292.3312.2198.4151.7
1 July 2010770.9290.5301.4200.9151.2
2 July 2010762.8273.7278.7194.0143.9
5 July 2010766.0272.7277.1206.6146.8
6 July 2010755.9269.2280.0208.3147.6
7 July 2010756.0269.7283.8205.7148.5
8 July 2010764.4262.6278.2201.8141.9
9 July 2010763.7261.9274.9205.9138.9
12 July 2010764.3267.0280.4207.3144.2
13 July 2010755.5266.3284.6200.5142.3
14 July 2010760.7282.3291.2207.2146.8
15 July 2010766.9284.6287.3197.1147.7
16 July 2010764.3282.6285.5185.6147.3
19 July 2010778.0283.9282.9175.7140.2
20 July 2010782.7276.6282.9169.1136.5
21 July 2010785.8275.8281.8167.9137.4
22 July 2010774.1276.9287.4169.6135.7
23 July 2010767.4271.5284.3164.9131.8
26 July 2010761.0259.1274.3148.2123.5
27 July 2010749.9238.8242.9137.4120.4
28 July 2010747.3223.0233.3147.6123.3
29 July 2010750.3232.4238.7152.1125.6
30 July 2010762.8236.1252.4154.2128.5
2 August 2010749.2227.5246.3146.2122.2
3 August 2010748.1230.2250.1152.0126.6
4 August 2010762.4229.3251.2154.0125.3
5 August 2010763.4239.2251.4155.2127.1
6 August 2010762.8236.7249.2152.5126.5
9 August 2010764.4250.0247.5150.7125.3
10 August 2010777.9267.0254.2164.3131.7
11 August 2010793.2289.7272.7167.9137.9
12 August 2010797.4287.6271.9175.9141.8
13 August 2010809.0293.1283.7185.8147.9
16 August 2010836.5299.2287.3186.7152.3
17 August 2010832.6291.8281.2174.0146.2
18 August 2010824.2288.3278.0168.0140.4
19 August 2010833.5293.1286.7173.3146.0
20 August 2010848.1303.3294.4178.9151.4
23 August 2010862.1305.1297.1178.0149.1
24 August 2010885.0318.1306.6184.0157.2
25 August 2010926.1343.6324.0184.4161.1
26 August 2010925.8345.5325.8185.8161.0
27 August 2010924.6352.0329.5185.8157.5
30 August 2010927.1352.6331.8192.6165.9
31 August 2010923.2356.4333.0193.2171.0
1 September 2010910.2347.5326.0180.9157.5
2 September 2010900.9342.3324.6172.7151.9
3 September 2010896.8340.3324.8167.1145.4
6 September 2010914.3342.6333.4174.1147.8
7 September 2010941.9372.8354.0180.6154.2
8 September 2010951.9371.2350.7174.1149.5
9 September 2010936.7354.0342.1172.0145.4
10 September 2010933.2341.3337.3171.4143.7
13 September 2010894.4339.1330.4172.6145.4
14 September 2010899.9348.6334.4178.6150.0
15 September 2010907.8350.1336.6175.7147.8
16 September 2010907.2355.9348.0172.5143.4
17 September 2010913.3386.6365.8177.3150.6
20 September 2010909.3401.5392.7176.2151.3
21 September 2010884.1383.2385.1175.0148.1
22 September 2010869.0394.4379.4178.5153.5
23 September 2010874.9418.4401.7183.7161.2
24 September 2010870.5412.8404.9180.6158.3
27 September 2010862.9429.9414.8186.8163.7
28 September 2010856.1449.3426.6193.4169.1
29 September 2010840.5446.0423.3195.7169.7
30 September 2010817.4429.5402.5184.5160.1
1 October 2010786.0402.3384.1180.7157.6
4 October 2010776.7402.4382.7179.9157.3
5 October 2010773.8410.3393.0178.0154.2
6 October 2010765.8422.0400.6177.6153.8
7 October 2010755.2422.8401.5176.8152.7
8 October 2010751.7421.6398.1173.7149.0
11 October 2010699.7417.6389.6171.0145.7
12 October 2010678.7421.9398.1175.0148.7
13 October 2010650.2413.9390.3174.5146.9
14 October 2010659.1387.4376.0170.1144.9
15 October 2010652.3374.9336.9161.7138.8
18 October 2010649.4361.6314.4161.6137.7
19 October 2010660.1383.2318.5163.1138.1
20 October 2010660.9387.5329.2161.8135.7
21 October 2010681.2403.0338.0166.9137.9
22 October 2010688.3404.7338.8166.1137.7
25 October 2010691.0398.8323.7161.6134.6
26 October 2010715.9392.9312.9156.7131.6
27 October 2010782.6420.6329.1161.2136.7
28 October 2010784.1424.4337.5162.7136.9
29 October 2010804.3440.0343.4169.3142.4
1 November 2010822.3461.9362.1176.3145.5
2 November 2010832.0482.6376.9181.9149.2
3 November 2010843.6502.6387.9187.0152.4
4 November 2010881.6526.0421.1194.4156.6
5 November 2010904.1520.6409.8194.7155.9
8 November 2010901.7546.9438.6201.6164.4
9 November 2010891.1553.2435.6198.6162.6
10 November 2010911.0619.5459.5206.0166.1
11 November 2010916.0646.1460.0220.0179.7
12 November 2010887.7562.9423.2201.9164.6
15 November 2010885.7540.0417.6195.8158.6
16 November 2010899.7562.0414.3198.5160.2
17 November 2010903.3554.4410.6202.0161.2
18 November 2010889.5541.4405.6201.3159.4
19 November 2010886.1541.5404.4201.9154.8
22 November 2010918.3544.1407.1208.8156.1
23 November 2010932.9586.3435.4234.5171.4
24 November 2010921.0615.3430.5235.3163.2
25 November 2010922.2632.9431.1246.3168.2
26 November 2010903.9646.2425.3244.4168.3
29 November 2010902.8649.3427.6267.0188.1
30 November 2010918.7668.5430.4283.3199.7
1 December 2010902.9616.3386.5250.9173.0
2 December 2010883.3568.2332.2225.9158.3
3 December 2010870.6528.9307.4219.4157.6
6 December 2010877.0531.6309.2230.4164.7
7 December 2010871.1507.8303.3225.6157.1
8 December 2010867.6501.7306.5222.0153.4
9 December 2010874.1503.3313.8234.0159.2
10 December 2010872.9513.0330.2245.2160.3
13 December 2010870.6514.3332.7247.6161.0
14 December 2010871.4521.8335.2248.8159.0
15 December 2010882.9519.1339.6242.2153.0
16 December 2010885.6521.4339.0245.1156.0
17 December 2010887.4540.3342.9248.9161.3
20 December 2010893.4565.3349.3252.8165.7
21 December 2010897.9589.7353.9252.9167.1
22 December 2010906.2601.3361.1251.8171.4
23 December 2010922.7602.4363.7248.8171.8
24 December 2010920.4602.6364.5248.9171.4
27 December 2010925.2602.1363.6243.1168.8
28 December 2010931.3606.2362.4249.8177.6
29 December 2010947.1606.6362.9243.5182.2
30 December 2010952.5608.8364.9249.1186.2
31 December 2010950.9609.5363.8249.0185.2
3 January 2011959.9609.3369.8248.9181.0
4 January 2011970.0609.6372.6242.6173.9
5 January 2011967.9607.6371.2237.1170.7
6 January 2011972.5612.9404.4254.7185.4
7 January 2011973.6620.1423.5263.8192.8
10 January 2011942.3604.0410.9267.5197.6
11 January 2011875.8566.4397.5255.9187.3
12 January 2011817.3530.9373.7240.2173.5
13 January 2011811.4525.2370.5230.5166.1
14 January 2011808.1548.9378.8230.4162.7
17 January 2011801.2553.4378.0239.5168.2
18 January 2011832.9576.8395.5236.3166.9
19 January 2011838.7581.6395.6227.1162.3
20 January 2011820.8565.1366.9218.1161.6
21 January 2011812.7561.6370.7202.6153.5
24 January 2011807.2572.9378.4208.7152.3
25 January 2011823.8575.1390.2218.2158.1

* Long-term yield spreads over German bunds.  Return to text

A vertical line on November 26, 2010 is labeled "Irish Package."

Source: Bloomberg.

Top-right panel
German Indicators

Period IFO Survey
(January 5, 2010 = 100)
Total PMI
(Diffusion index*)
January 201095.954.60
February 201095.555.69
March 201098.358.73
April 2010101.859.32
May 2010101.656.35
June 2010101.956.69
July 2010106.358.96
August 2010106.858.35
September 2010106.954.73
October 2010107.756.00
November 2010109.359.01
December 2010109.860.29
January 2011110.360.98

* 50+ = expansion.  Return to table

Date DAX equity index
(January 4, 2010 = 100)
4 January 2010100.00
5 January 201099.73
6 January 201099.77
7 January 201099.52
8 January 201099.82
11 January 201099.87
12 January 201098.26
13 January 201098.59
14 January 201099.02
15 January 201097.15
18 January 201097.85
19 January 201098.81
20 January 201096.75
21 January 201095.02
22 January 201094.16
25 January 201093.11
26 January 201093.73
27 January 201093.30
28 January 201091.60
29 January 201092.73
1 February 201093.49
2 February 201094.40
3 February 201093.78
4 February 201091.48
5 February 201089.85
8 February 201090.68
9 February 201090.91
10 February 201091.54
11 February 201091.00
12 February 201090.94
15 February 201091.12
16 February 201092.46
17 February 201093.39
18 February 201093.92
19 February 201094.61
22 February 201094.05
23 February 201092.66
24 February 201092.84
25 February 201091.47
26 February 201092.56
1 March 201094.46
2 March 201095.51
3 March 201096.19
4 March 201095.82
5 March 201097.17
8 March 201097.15
9 March 201097.31
10 March 201098.16
11 March 201098.02
12 March 201098.29
15 March 201097.61
16 March 201098.72
17 March 201099.60
18 March 201099.40
19 March 201098.91
22 March 201098.99
23 March 201099.49
24 March 201099.85
25 March 2010101.40
26 March 2010101.19
29 March 2010101.79
30 March 2010101.56
31 March 2010101.74
1 April 2010103.10
2 April 2010ND
5 April 2010ND
6 April 2010103.37
7 April 2010102.88
8 April 2010102.04
9 April 2010103.33
12 April 2010103.35
13 April 2010103.02
14 April 2010103.80
15 April 2010104.02
16 April 2010102.19
19 April 2010101.89
20 April 2010103.57
21 April 2010103.01
22 April 2010101.99
23 April 2010103.49
26 April 2010104.69
27 April 2010101.84
28 April 2010100.60
29 April 2010101.60
30 April 2010101.45
3 May 2010101.96
4 May 201099.31
5 May 201098.51
6 May 201097.68
7 May 201094.49
10 May 201099.50
11 May 201099.82
12 May 2010102.24
13 May 2010103.37
14 May 2010100.14
17 May 2010100.31
18 May 2010101.78
19 May 201099.01
20 May 201097.02
21 May 201096.38
24 May 201095.99
25 May 201093.75
26 May 201095.20
27 May 201098.16
28 May 201098.31
31 May 201098.61
1 June 201098.89
2 June 201098.89
3 June 2010100.10
4 June 201098.19
7 June 201097.63
8 June 201097.03
9 June 201098.95
10 June 2010100.14
11 June 201099.99
14 June 2010101.27
15 June 2010102.10
16 June 2010102.36
17 June 2010102.90
18 June 2010102.79
21 June 2010104.05
22 June 2010103.65
23 June 2010102.58
24 June 2010101.11
25 June 2010100.37
28 June 2010101.80
29 June 201098.41
30 June 201098.63
1 July 201096.84
2 July 201096.46
5 July 201096.16
6 July 201098.23
7 July 201099.08
8 July 201099.79
9 July 2010100.28
12 July 2010100.48
13 July 2010102.36
14 July 2010102.67
15 July 2010101.67
16 July 201099.87
19 July 201099.35
20 July 201098.66
21 July 201099.04
22 July 2010101.55
23 July 2010101.95
26 July 2010102.41
27 July 2010102.63
28 July 2010102.16
29 July 2010101.43
30 July 2010101.65
2 August 2010104.03
3 August 2010104.29
4 August 2010104.68
5 August 2010104.72
6 August 2010103.49
9 August 2010105.01
10 August 2010103.93
11 August 2010101.75
12 August 2010101.44
13 August 2010101.03
16 August 2010101.03
17 August 2010102.61
18 August 2010102.28
19 August 2010100.44
20 August 201099.29
23 August 201099.38
24 August 201098.13
25 August 201097.54
26 August 201097.76
27 August 201098.39
30 August 201097.75
31 August 201097.97
1 September 2010100.59
2 September 2010100.59
3 September 2010101.43
6 September 2010101.76
7 September 2010101.15
8 September 2010101.92
9 September 2010102.86
10 September 2010102.75
13 September 2010103.53
14 September 2010103.75
15 September 2010103.53
16 September 2010103.33
17 September 2010102.67
20 September 2010104.07
21 September 2010103.76
22 September 2010102.65
23 September 2010102.26
24 September 2010104.13
27 September 2010103.81
28 September 2010103.77
29 September 2010103.28
30 September 2010102.99
1 October 2010102.70
4 October 2010101.42
5 October 2010102.77
6 October 2010103.68
7 October 2010103.77
8 October 2010104.02
11 October 2010104.32
12 October 2010104.24
13 October 2010106.39
14 October 2010106.73
15 October 2010107.34
18 October 2010107.74
19 October 2010107.31
20 October 2010107.87
21 October 2010109.30
22 October 2010109.22
25 October 2010109.77
26 October 2010109.35
27 October 2010108.59
28 October 2010109.04
29 October 2010109.14
1 November 2010109.20
2 November 2010110.02
3 November 2010109.42
4 November 2010111.35
5 November 2010111.67
8 November 2010111.61
9 November 2010112.23
10 November 2010111.10
11 November 2010111.16
12 November 2010111.35
15 November 2010112.27
16 November 2010110.17
17 November 2010110.78
18 November 2010112.96
19 November 2010113.15
22 November 2010112.79
23 November 2010110.86
24 November 2010112.82
25 November 2010113.75
26 November 2010113.24
29 November 2010110.74
30 November 2010110.58
1 December 2010113.53
2 December 2010115.03
3 December 2010114.87
6 December 2010114.98
7 December 2010115.77
8 December 2010115.34
9 December 2010115.14
10 December 2010115.84
13 December 2010116.22
14 December 2010116.19
15 December 2010116.01
16 December 2010116.14
17 December 2010115.44
20 December 2010116.04
21 December 2010117.02
22 December 2010116.86
23 December 2010116.69
24 December 2010ND
27 December 2010115.25
28 December 2010115.27
29 December 2010115.66
30 December 2010114.32
31 December 2010ND
3 January 2011115.57
4 January 2011115.33
5 January 2011114.74
6 January 2011115.43
7 January 2011114.87
10 January 2011113.37
11 January 2011114.77
12 January 2011116.87
13 January 2011116.98
14 January 2011116.99
17 January 2011117.03
18 January 2011118.11
19 January 2011117.10
20 January 2011116.14
21 January 2011116.77
24 January 2011116.86
25 January 2011117.10

Middle-left panel
Gross Sovereign and Bank Financing Needs*

Billions of euros
Period Portugal sovereign Portugal banks Spain sovereign Spain banks
200922.255.87157.5948.58
201018.2712.51153.1649.15
201121.0713.24131.9359.74
201219.0114.68126.9290.95
201319.372.09102.8610.26

* Sovereign is sum of projected fiscal deficit and sovereign bond redemptions. Bank is marketable debt only. Does not include potential costs of bank bailouts.  Return to text

Middle-right panel
Sovereign Debt-to-GDP Ratios*

Percent
Period Greece Ireland Portugal Spain
2009126.866.375.753.2
2010140.096.183.963.5
2011152.8103.689.069.2
2012160.4108.893.472.3
2013164.4111.396.173.4
2014165.9110.798.873.6
2015167.7110.0100.973.2
2016169.7109.4102.772.3
2017170.9108.9104.371.1
2018172.3108.4105.569.9
2019173.5107.9106.868.6
2020175.0107.5108.267.4

* Staff estimates.  Return to text

Bottom-left panel
Unit Labor Costs

2001:Q1 = 100
Period Greece Ireland Portugal Spain Germany
2001:Q1100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00
2001:Q2100.62102.25100.68101.15100.20
2001:Q3100.74104.8599.43101.96100.40
2001:Q4100.86104.9699.20103.00101.00
2002:Q1111.45102.96103.31103.34101.10
2002:Q2112.44103.55103.42104.50100.80
2002:Q3112.56103.07105.25105.65101.00
2002:Q4113.18104.37104.11106.11101.30
2003:Q1112.81107.21107.08107.27101.80
2003:Q2114.53107.33107.99107.96101.70
2003:Q3115.64109.10108.56109.11101.80
2003:Q4116.87106.15108.45109.34101.30
2004:Q1117.49108.63107.76110.61101.50
2004:Q2118.35111.35109.36110.61101.20
2004:Q3119.95113.59110.84111.65101.40
2004:Q4120.57112.65110.84112.34101.30
2005:Q1122.04114.66113.24113.26100.90
2005:Q2123.15115.48112.67114.76100.00
2005:Q3123.28120.21115.75116.1599.20
2005:Q4124.14122.46114.95117.0799.10
2006:Q1125.37122.46116.44118.1198.90
2006:Q2125.86123.88117.24118.9298.10
2006:Q3127.09122.34115.07119.8498.00
2006:Q4128.33125.53115.41121.3497.21
2007:Q1129.68122.58117.69123.1897.70
2007:Q2131.28125.77119.86124.1198.20
2007:Q3133.50130.50117.01125.1497.80
2007:Q4135.34128.01117.69126.7698.20
2008:Q1137.68133.33119.52129.8798.50
2008:Q2139.53133.69123.52130.3399.80
2008:Q3141.01131.68120.89131.72101.10
2008:Q4142.49134.75125.23131.72103.79
2009:Q1143.72134.40127.74132.30106.89
2009:Q2144.70130.97130.59132.41106.09
2009:Q3145.81130.73125.91132.06105.59
2009:Q4147.29132.74128.42132.30105.39
2010:Q1137.68127.19127.74131.26106.19
2010:Q2142.61128.25132.31131.26104.69
2010:Q3143.60124.70127.05130.57104.69

Source: Haver Analytics.

Bottom-right panel
Containing Contagion

  • Backing Portugal and Spain will require €500+ billion, compared with currently available resources of €375-400 billion.
  • Critical that back-stop capacity be expanded.
  • Horizontal review of banks must:
    • be more credible than one last summer.
    • require more banks to raise capital.
    • be able to help recapitalize weak banks.

Exhibit 6
Foreign Outlook

Top panel
Real GDP*

Percent change, annual rate
2010 2011p 2012p
H1 Q3 Q4e
1. Total Foreign5.62.13.03.43.6
2. June Tealbook4.63.33.33.3n.a.
  
3. Emerging Market Economies8.12.55.05.05.1
4. China9.79.69.98.68.5
5. Emerging Asia ex. China12.3-1.14.94.85.0
6. Latin America5.22.83.14.24.2
  
7. Advanced Foreign Economies3.61.71.32.12.4
8. Euro Area2.71.41.51.22.2
9. United Kingdom2.92.9-2.02.02.5
10. Canada3.91.02.72.82.7
11. Japan4.94.5-1.61.72.0

* GDP aggregates weighted by shares of U.S. merchandise exports. Table reflects January Tealbook updated for data.  Return to text

Middle-left panel
Industrial Production*

January 2006 = 100
Period U.S. AFE EME
January 2006100.00100.00100.00
February 2006100.0799.75100.08
March 2006100.30100.02101.42
April 2006100.6999.86100.25
May 2006100.58100.20101.99
June 2006101.0399.96103.36
July 2006101.3199.99101.84
August 2006101.58100.32102.35
September 2006101.4799.79103.50
October 2006101.4499.90103.61
November 2006101.26100.25104.96
December 2006102.33100.97104.72
January 2007101.95100.77105.44
February 2007103.10101.57105.55
March 2007103.22101.58107.12
April 2007103.94100.94107.01
May 2007103.97101.92108.46
June 2007103.81101.70107.91
July 2007104.06101.31110.22
August 2007104.02102.06109.46
September 2007104.44101.35109.16
October 2007103.70101.44110.79
November 2007104.11101.22110.59
December 2007104.20100.29111.76
January 2008103.83100.88114.10
February 2008103.61100.72113.89
March 2008103.3199.70114.27
April 2008102.45100.26113.21
May 2008101.9999.20112.37
June 2008101.6298.98113.54
July 2008101.5999.35112.23
August 2008100.3898.38111.76
September 200896.4197.67111.51
October 200897.3696.12110.02
November 200896.3893.54105.81
December 200894.4189.92102.20
January 200992.4487.45100.11
February 200991.7485.17102.72
March 200990.3984.15103.21
April 200989.6884.05105.31
May 200988.8883.90105.31
June 200988.6884.14107.05
July 200989.9184.50109.48
August 200991.0184.25109.20
September 200991.6885.67110.24
October 200991.9285.84111.45
November 200992.4186.94111.53
December 200992.9187.08114.68
January 201093.8488.62116.18
February 201093.8288.81117.32
March 201094.3890.00119.07
April 201094.8790.39120.87
May 201096.0291.37121.95
June 201096.0891.37120.21
July 201096.9391.43120.06
August 201097.1691.83119.92
September 201097.4591.08120.02
October 201097.3291.26121.03
November 201097.57NDND
December 201098.40NDND

* Weighted by share of U.S. merchandise exports.  Return to text

Middle-center panel
Nominal Exports of Goods*

January 2006 = 100
Period U.S. AFE EME
January 2006100.00100.00100.00
February 2006101.22100.10102.47
March 2006103.41101.21105.61
April 2006103.27102.44102.93
May 2006105.01108.46107.27
June 2006107.30106.07107.68
July 2006104.68103.16105.44
August 2006107.65106.21112.37
September 2006108.63106.80111.17
October 2006109.57106.12109.14
November 2006111.19110.22115.42
December 2006111.71114.49115.31
January 2007112.78112.35118.23
February 2007110.40113.17123.92
March 2007115.30114.18115.50
April 2007114.92115.01121.12
May 2007117.10116.50123.40
June 2007118.36116.96123.00
July 2007118.89118.33123.29
August 2007121.10120.99126.61
September 2007121.74121.19125.12
October 2007123.53125.19133.86
November 2007125.13130.55138.09
December 2007126.12126.17138.55
January 2008130.28135.95150.00
February 2008133.93137.00146.53
March 2008131.98139.97145.61
April 2008137.27144.55153.37
May 2008138.00141.16155.15
June 2008143.88141.58151.97
July 2008146.54144.42157.77
August 2008143.88135.92152.60
September 2008132.08131.84148.05
October 2008129.70121.39141.89
November 2008121.05107.17123.54
December 2008109.63104.49116.79
January 2009103.3195.13107.17
February 2009105.5591.73106.10
March 2009104.3792.90109.07
April 2009101.0592.88109.60
May 2009103.8994.22109.09
June 2009106.1998.09113.02
July 2009108.66102.52115.11
August 2009108.75101.50116.48
September 2009113.01106.68123.89
October 2009117.10109.17129.37
November 2009117.05112.49132.03
December 2009122.03113.79145.05
January 2010123.45114.44141.22
February 2010123.19113.63145.96
March 2010129.62118.52148.00
April 2010128.10116.77149.41
May 2010131.74113.36152.13
June 2010129.12115.51152.98
July 2010132.65119.01147.83
August 2010132.37120.22150.69
September 2010132.92121.67152.02
October 2010138.28128.69153.51
November 2010139.40128.69ND

* Dollar value; weighted by share of U.S. merchandise exports.  Return to text

Middle-right panel
Output Gaps

Percent*
Period United States Advanced Foreign Economies Emerging Market Economies
2008:Q1-0.751.564.25
2008:Q2-1.130.913.45
2008:Q3-2.660.152.48
2008:Q4-4.87-1.72-0.28
2009:Q1-6.55-4.07-4.02
2009:Q2-7.21-4.47-3.65
2009:Q3-7.34-4.55-2.51
2009:Q4-6.70-4.05-1.77
2010:Q1-6.43-3.44-1.13
2010:Q2-6.61-2.98-0.25
2010:Q3-6.60-2.90-0.75
Forecast
2010:Q4-6.30-2.83-0.69
2011:Q1-6.04-2.72-0.63
2011:Q2-5.75-2.58-0.53
2011:Q3-5.45-2.44-0.41
2011:Q4-5.06-2.29-0.30
2012:Q1-4.65-2.12-0.19
2012:Q2-4.22-1.93-0.08
2012:Q3-3.79-1.740.02
2012:Q4-3.33-1.540.13

* Deviation from potential GDP.  Return to table

Bottom-left panel
Policy Rates

Percent
Period United Kingdom Euro area Canada Japan
2 January 20075.003.504.25ND
4 January 20075.003.504.250.25
11 January 20075.253.504.250.25
21 February 20075.253.504.250.50
8 March 20075.253.754.250.50
10 May 20075.503.754.250.50
6 June 20075.504.004.250.50
5 July 20075.754.004.250.50
10 July 20075.754.004.500.50
4 December 20075.754.004.250.50
6 December 20075.504.004.250.50
22 January 20085.504.004.000.50
7 February 20085.254.004.000.50
4 March 20085.254.003.500.50
10 April 20085.004.003.500.50
22 April 20085.004.003.000.50
3 July 20085.004.253.000.50
8 October 20084.503.752.500.50
21 October 20084.503.752.250.50
31 October 20084.503.752.250.30
6 November 20083.003.252.250.30
4 December 20082.002.502.250.30
9 December 20082.002.501.500.30
19 December 20082.002.501.500.10
8 January 20091.502.501.500.10
15 January 20091.502.001.500.10
20 January 20091.502.001.000.10
5 February 20091.002.001.000.10
3 March 20091.002.000.500.10
5 March 20090.501.500.500.10
2 April 20090.501.250.500.10
21 April 20090.501.250.250.10
7 May 20090.501.000.250.10
1 June 20100.501.000.500.10
20 July 20100.501.000.750.10
8 September 20100.501.001.000.10
1 October 20100.501.001.000.05
Forecast
3 October 20110.501.001.250.05
2 January 20120.751.251.250.05
2 April 20121.001.251.250.05
2 July 20121.251.501.500.05
1 October 20121.501.751.500.05
31 December 20121.501.751.500.05

Bottom-center panel
CPI Ex. Food and Energy*

Four-quarter percent change
Period United Kingdom Euro area Japan
2006:Q10.951.33-0.57
2006:Q20.881.47-0.52
2006:Q30.861.44-0.41
2006:Q41.361.51-0.29
2007:Q11.531.81-0.30
2007:Q21.621.85-0.32
2007:Q31.261.80-0.32
2007:Q41.041.72-0.18
2008:Q10.821.70-0.03
2008:Q21.121.60-0.14
2008:Q31.631.720.03
2008:Q41.211.85-0.07
2009:Q11.171.55-0.34
2009:Q21.311.62-0.55
2009:Q31.671.36-0.93
2009:Q42.181.16-1.15
2010:Q13.010.94-1.17
2010:Q23.050.87-1.68
2010:Q32.641.03-1.57
2010:Q42.791.14-0.92
Forecast
2011:Q13.971.30-0.52
2011:Q23.061.25-0.50
2011:Q33.151.14-0.55
2011:Q42.821.10-1.16
2012:Q11.731.18-1.02
2012:Q21.761.23-0.88
2012:Q31.821.30-0.77
2012:Q42.341.38-0.66

* Staff estimates.  Return to text

Bottom-right panel
BBB Corporate Spreads

Weekly
Basis points
Period United Kingdom Euro area Japan
5 January 2007116.5976.7029.35
12 January 2007113.5975.1028.69
19 January 2007113.2073.3727.38
26 January 2007111.2673.1727.30
2 February 2007111.0674.6526.76
9 February 2007109.9572.0126.47
16 February 2007109.4771.7027.65
23 February 2007108.8870.1125.80
2 March 2007108.7173.6224.53
9 March 2007109.8474.3423.81
16 March 2007111.5776.2623.57
23 March 2007111.1974.2824.20
30 March 2007110.8972.5625.23
6 April 2007111.0180.1925.45
13 April 2007110.9778.1125.78
20 April 2007109.9075.8126.15
27 April 2007109.7075.3925.13
4 May 2007107.6777.2025.58
11 May 2007107.4776.2025.54
18 May 2007107.1074.6224.99
25 May 2007105.0172.7325.54
1 June 2007105.5870.5529.02
8 June 2007106.9473.0627.58
15 June 2007107.7973.1728.45
22 June 2007109.3173.8327.87
29 June 2007113.3576.9329.82
6 July 2007117.3482.9227.58
13 July 2007120.1785.6528.00
20 July 2007123.5291.5428.47
27 July 2007132.03102.0227.61
3 August 2007137.30108.7829.21
10 August 2007132.89110.4429.84
17 August 2007136.91118.1229.76
24 August 2007139.38118.6032.93
31 August 2007143.47120.4932.72
7 September 2007150.43124.1931.08
14 September 2007157.11131.3531.64
21 September 2007147.00120.5234.11
28 September 2007144.51118.9135.16
5 October 2007144.20118.5034.55
12 October 2007139.77109.2833.87
19 October 2007142.31112.3934.09
26 October 2007143.65111.3634.15
2 November 2007145.57113.8733.41
9 November 2007150.85120.8233.58
16 November 2007155.30129.2435.01
23 November 2007164.12141.0437.11
30 November 2007163.58145.4938.62
7 December 2007169.05150.4936.84
14 December 2007171.24152.8736.78
21 December 2007172.55152.6437.15
28 December 2007172.29153.2736.12
4 January 2008170.80160.5136.47
11 January 2008178.27170.4935.55
18 January 2008182.67182.4937.72
25 January 2008191.61193.1438.92
1 February 2008196.92203.8641.00
8 February 2008203.84211.0138.84
15 February 2008212.15217.5342.64
22 February 2008219.39222.0344.41
29 February 2008220.75222.3645.49
7 March 2008230.90238.3445.47
14 March 2008237.05252.9046.25
21 March 2008239.05253.3146.06
28 March 2008239.09251.0347.28
4 April 2008243.69244.3547.92
11 April 2008239.86236.8347.84
18 April 2008233.59222.7945.82
25 April 2008234.66213.7946.72
2 May 2008224.78199.7146.05
9 May 2008219.72199.7544.72
16 May 2008206.60193.1544.23
23 May 2008208.17193.3842.26
30 May 2008206.56192.2842.63
6 June 2008205.14193.0637.46
13 June 2008204.92192.2039.50
20 June 2008208.55197.4638.65
27 June 2008211.58208.8939.13
4 July 2008215.22216.6838.15
11 July 2008210.50229.8938.11
18 July 2008207.78226.6239.53
25 July 2008211.13228.4239.33
1 August 2008208.65229.0241.74
8 August 2008210.69229.8044.21
15 August 2008212.70227.3844.16
22 August 2008211.79229.7645.98
29 August 2008216.39232.9847.60
5 September 2008218.96246.6546.35
12 September 2008218.65251.2146.27
19 September 2008233.25275.1546.00
26 September 2008235.29297.8846.69
3 October 2008243.93316.4037.16
10 October 2008254.73392.8433.26
17 October 2008274.21441.0342.00
24 October 2008289.97502.4840.22
31 October 2008306.78500.5342.61
7 November 2008338.67481.0945.50
14 November 2008361.30480.6846.13
21 November 2008369.90498.9146.98
28 November 2008379.13505.4962.36
5 December 2008395.77503.7664.25
12 December 2008397.44499.1066.81
19 December 2008390.16496.7969.50
26 December 2008393.94495.0568.39
2 January 2009398.44495.8770.72
9 January 2009390.47460.3271.96
16 January 2009382.20453.4372.16
23 January 2009371.96450.0972.76
30 January 2009370.07457.5372.79
6 February 2009342.47434.6474.78
13 February 2009325.65431.2972.62
20 February 2009322.62437.1073.40
27 February 2009326.37436.5974.90
6 March 2009323.40443.8568.98
13 March 2009321.66449.9869.66
20 March 2009327.17449.5169.26
27 March 2009331.00437.4871.56
3 April 2009336.79432.5572.24
10 April 2009336.61418.3582.43
17 April 2009339.21391.7584.85
24 April 2009338.75386.2782.55
1 May 2009331.03375.1189.00
8 May 2009319.65346.9089.50
15 May 2009318.15334.0683.50
22 May 2009313.77316.7584.49
29 May 2009315.63305.4871.64
5 June 2009307.73297.8964.89
12 June 2009302.42289.5661.21
19 June 2009300.00290.2861.08
26 June 2009299.30293.2258.06
3 July 2009293.60291.6855.95
10 July 2009286.87279.3457.68
17 July 2009277.52267.5357.24
24 July 2009268.90248.5157.93
31 July 2009256.53236.0457.81
7 August 2009249.45229.8956.42
14 August 2009244.03220.9956.39
21 August 2009241.94222.1354.48
28 August 2009241.00216.5354.16
4 September 2009236.30212.2654.13
11 September 2009235.79208.5253.86
18 September 2009232.82201.3351.89
25 September 2009233.45198.8751.75
2 October 2009233.84198.1446.93
9 October 2009232.80193.8545.76
16 October 2009225.57188.5940.78
23 October 2009224.91182.3837.49
30 October 2009223.72181.9138.06
6 November 2009220.79179.4437.92
13 November 2009221.44171.1835.20
20 November 2009214.24166.1134.37
27 November 2009211.17171.5033.17
4 December 2009208.22163.4332.37
11 December 2009202.52169.7532.65
18 December 2009195.84162.2031.25
25 December 2009194.23174.4833.16
1 January 2010195.18182.8833.44
8 January 2010180.33165.1833.54
15 January 2010173.34156.9133.87
22 January 2010173.51161.6533.88
29 January 2010170.18164.6134.67
5 February 2010167.94181.2340.28
12 February 2010168.65187.8541.71
19 February 2010170.97195.0437.70
26 February 2010171.34178.4637.73
5 March 2010167.02180.8032.27
12 March 2010164.91193.4832.80
19 March 2010163.98191.6232.56
26 March 2010161.27188.8732.48
2 April 2010162.67187.4531.33
9 April 2010161.42184.1727.13
16 April 2010163.89180.6923.59
23 April 2010156.04185.1827.40
30 April 2010161.43194.1027.30
7 May 2010166.30240.7728.44
14 May 2010164.51219.2431.45
21 May 2010174.70257.3932.33
28 May 2010179.47253.3032.98
4 June 2010183.18261.7830.42
11 June 2010190.00269.0229.65
18 June 2010185.73256.3332.96
25 June 2010184.50257.2732.92
2 July 2010187.32261.1332.24
9 July 2010189.08260.6933.58
16 July 2010188.74255.6031.97
23 July 2010191.47243.8824.74
30 July 2010186.80229.7823.65
6 August 2010184.45218.4226.47
13 August 2010184.18226.7428.90
20 August 2010181.32226.0634.83
27 August 2010183.08233.9934.89
3 September 2010185.54238.5633.51
10 September 2010183.76236.8232.81
17 September 2010186.29235.0232.89
24 September 2010188.03241.2129.76
1 October 2010188.58247.5032.21
8 October 2010195.94242.4937.47
15 October 2010184.48235.5334.96
22 October 2010184.36234.9635.09
29 October 2010186.94234.2936.33
5 November 2010187.53209.7539.88
12 November 2010186.85218.5534.13
19 November 2010187.74214.7143.61
26 November 2010190.95232.4937.53
3 December 2010196.45237.5938.08
10 December 2010194.21241.1036.59
17 December 2010193.19237.2939.14
24 December 2010193.09238.8239.04
31 December 2010194.99238.3139.83
7 January 2011189.87242.0441.13
14 January 2011186.29240.7039.97
21 January 2011183.83230.8940.43
28 January 2011182.57226.7040.33

Exhibit 7
Asset Bubbles and Commodity Prices

Top-left panel
Flows to EME Dedicated Funds*

Monthly
Billions of U.S. dollars
Period Bond funds Equity funds
December 20061.143.72
January 20071.553.52
February 20071.191.28
March 2007-0.20-5.71
April 2007-0.382.16
May 20071.31-0.69
June 20071.070.89
July 20070.108.63
August 2007-1.31-1.91
September 20070.027.30
October 20070.7311.01
November 20070.13-4.73
December 20070.073.86
January 20080.10-10.29
February 20080.21-0.27
March 20080.18-2.84
April 20080.436.95
May 20080.205.44
June 2008-0.45-4.89
July 2008-0.32-6.41
August 2008-0.54-2.96
September 2008-3.39-5.47
October 2008-7.40-7.98
November 2008-2.51-1.11
December 2008-1.22-0.54
January 2009-0.770.30
February 2009-1.50-1.17
March 2009-0.76-0.69
April 2009-0.534.71
May 20091.027.46
June 20090.384.43
July 20090.963.01
August 20090.831.21
September 20092.101.59
October 20092.635.27
November 20092.302.55
December 20091.621.25
January 20101.742.09
February 20101.89-1.47
March 20104.173.20
April 20105.063.68
May 20101.32-4.63
June 20102.911.36
July 20103.683.38
August 20103.190.88
September 20103.935.35
October 20104.767.38
November 20101.815.29
December 20100.601.51
January 20111.544.81

* January 2011 flows are based on data through January 19th.  Return to text

Top-right panel
Real Exchange Rates Against the Dollar (USD/FC)

Monthly
January 2007 = 100
Period China Brazil Mexico Korea Emerging Markets
January 2007100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00
February 2007100.27102.0399.48100.16100.31
March 2007100.39102.1498.1099.15100.30
April 2007100.54104.9599.10100.49101.17
May 2007101.25107.25100.32100.53102.07
June 2007102.68110.29100.38100.62102.27
July 2007104.10113.34100.78101.66103.04
August 2007105.20109.2399.0599.92101.95
September 2007105.77112.4399.25100.62102.57
October 2007106.26118.94101.20102.35104.08
November 2007107.42120.54100.16101.66104.59
December 2007108.36119.76100.40100.38104.95
January 2008110.54120.8599.8299.06105.78
February 2008113.38124.10101.1698.92106.85
March 2008114.39125.57101.7995.24107.69
April 2008115.59127.58104.0594.92108.63
May 2008115.50130.03104.8790.83108.29
June 2008115.83133.15105.6891.04108.81
July 2008116.20135.17106.6292.24109.61
August 2008115.81133.89108.3989.45108.68
September 2008115.76120.07103.2182.46105.64
October 2008116.96100.6188.2771.2299.11
November 2008118.3898.7587.3869.0897.10
December 2008118.2594.5686.5371.5196.67
January 2009118.1298.3283.4371.6095.93
February 2009117.2697.8079.1167.5093.69
March 2009117.3398.3979.4067.3293.47
April 2009117.38103.8687.1673.2996.41
May 2009117.60110.9788.8677.7398.24
June 2009116.47116.8287.5776.9998.58
July 2009116.40118.5287.6277.0398.60
August 2009116.31123.8689.9178.3099.46
September 2009116.58125.7887.3179.9899.45
October 2009116.72131.7288.5182.43100.74
November 2009116.93132.8189.1883.56101.15
December 2009117.48131.2490.9883.71101.31
January 2010117.20129.7092.0085.56101.30
February 2010117.50126.4191.5884.49100.26
March 2010117.68131.0094.8385.84101.50
April 2010117.94134.0097.3187.81102.62
May 2010118.71130.5293.8384.27100.88
June 2010118.80131.4094.2581.00100.45
July 2010119.75133.6093.5381.58100.94
August 2010119.84134.0393.8683.34101.53
September 2010121.26137.6993.8085.61102.30
October 2010123.09141.1396.8288.70104.15
November 2010124.91139.7697.8787.89104.17
December 2010124.46141.3997.2686.80104.06
January 2011125.64143.6598.7288.82105.21

As shown in the chart, increasing values indicate foreign appreciation.

Middle-left panel
Property Prices

January 2007 = 100
Period China Hong Kong
January 2007100.00100.00
February 2007100.72100.70
March 2007101.32101.42
April 2007102.06101.48
May 2007103.02103.48
June 2007104.06105.45
July 2007105.28107.13
August 2007106.69108.33
September 2007108.36110.33
October 2007110.08114.70
November 2007111.05121.05
December 2007111.35125.89
January 2008111.65129.59
February 2008112.05131.32
March 2008112.37131.48
April 2008112.60128.66
May 2008112.63130.53
June 2008112.68130.96
July 2008112.75129.36
August 2008112.58127.34
September 2008112.31127.65
October 2008111.96120.76
November 2008111.50112.09
December 2008111.00112.08
January 2009110.77112.76
February 2009110.72113.07
March 2009110.91113.93
April 2009111.33117.27
May 2009111.94120.85
June 2009112.90125.04
July 2009113.87127.96
August 2009114.85131.54
September 2009115.47135.96
October 2009116.27138.99
November 2009117.77 141.34
December 2009119.59144.28
January 2010121.15145.72
February 2010122.44147.72
March 2010123.75149.87
April 2010125.43151.75
May 2010125.62151.21
June 2010125.59151.57
July 2010125.52155.72
August 2010125.48159.67
September 2010125.90162.96
October 2010126.14168.33
November 2010126.65173.95
December 2010127.07ND
January 2007 = 100
Period Singapore*
2007:Q1100.00
2007:Q2108.11
2007:Q3115.78
2007:Q4123.12
2008:Q1130.26
2008:Q2130.05
2008:Q3125.25
2008:Q4117.00
2009:Q1103.08
2009:Q297.81
2009:Q3111.45
2009:Q4118.80
2010:Q1129.14
2010:Q2135.29
2010:Q3136.87
2010:Q4139.48

* Data are quarterly.  Return to table

Middle-center panel
Corporate Debt Spreads*

Percent
Period Latin America Emerging Asia
11 January 200210.446.94
18 January 200210.866.93
25 January 200210.876.84
1 February 200210.956.65
8 February 200211.266.64
15 February 200211.236.60
22 February 200211.316.60
1 March 200213.896.66
8 March 200217.496.52
15 March 200217.285.77
22 March 200217.415.59
29 March 200217.065.56
5 April 200217.035.61
12 April 200217.595.56
19 April 200218.165.80
26 April 200218.715.47
3 May 200215.195.41
10 May 200214.685.35
17 May 200215.585.28
24 May 200215.915.41
31 May 200216.365.57
7 June 200217.415.58
14 June 200218.255.65
21 June 200219.035.69
28 June 200220.485.64
5 July 200220.575.84
12 July 200221.196.08
19 July 200221.756.25
26 July 200221.876.48
2 August 200224.146.56
9 August 200224.276.80
16 August 200223.936.83
23 August 200223.486.87
30 August 200223.006.88
6 September 200221.967.05
13 September 200221.827.03
20 September 200221.937.09
27 September 200222.497.16
4 October 200223.187.16
11 October 200223.447.16
18 October 200223.716.89
25 October 200224.156.79
1 November 200224.647.02
8 November 200224.746.88
15 November 200224.086.56
22 November 200222.936.41
29 November 200222.016.32
6 December 200220.426.43
13 December 200220.516.58
20 December 200219.976.59
27 December 200219.246.62
3 January 200318.476.73
10 January 200317.556.55
17 January 200317.156.54
24 January 200317.316.54
31 January 200317.316.48
7 February 200316.816.48
14 February 200316.686.44
21 February 200316.716.44
28 February 200317.066.52
7 March 200317.396.61
14 March 200317.216.58
21 March 200317.286.36
28 March 200317.546.43
4 April 200315.366.48
11 April 200314.646.37
18 April 200314.376.25
25 April 200314.086.14
2 May 200313.226.21
9 May 200312.906.04
16 May 200312.625.97
23 May 200312.586.02
30 May 200312.256.11
6 June 200311.416.10
13 June 200311.086.05
20 June 200310.445.80
27 June 200310.175.70
4 July 20039.775.61
11 July 20039.755.56
18 July 20039.625.43
25 July 20039.315.18
1 August 20039.195.08
8 August 20039.705.20
15 August 20039.605.09
22 August 20039.435.15
29 August 20038.915.00
5 September 20037.624.99
12 September 20037.865.13
19 September 20037.885.20
26 September 20037.935.25
3 October 20036.995.27
10 October 20036.395.06
17 October 20036.044.93
24 October 20035.964.95
31 October 20035.954.94
7 November 20035.624.64
14 November 20035.514.57
21 November 20035.624.66
28 November 20035.404.62
5 December 20035.104.54
12 December 20035.054.60
19 December 20034.984.59
26 December 20034.794.52
2 January 20044.804.49
9 January 20044.804.49
16 January 20044.914.58
23 January 20044.904.52
30 January 20044.864.44
6 February 20045.454.53
13 February 20045.564.63
20 February 20045.544.61
27 February 20045.714.50
5 March 20045.624.58
12 March 20045.644.74
19 March 20045.574.67
26 March 20045.434.64
2 April 20045.064.41
9 April 20044.674.14
16 April 20044.464.00
23 April 20044.523.91
30 April 20044.603.87
7 May 20044.973.87
14 May 20045.413.96
21 May 20045.384.01
28 May 20045.323.98
4 June 20045.093.98
11 June 20044.853.91
18 June 20044.783.90
25 June 20044.713.91
2 July 20044.943.60
9 July 20045.153.48
16 July 20044.973.46
23 July 20044.603.30
30 July 20044.463.22
6 August 20044.853.55
13 August 20044.843.53
20 August 20044.773.52
27 August 20044.623.60
3 September 20044.533.65
10 September 20044.413.60
17 September 20044.493.63
24 September 20044.453.63
1 October 20044.473.67
8 October 20044.393.68
15 October 20044.443.73
22 October 20044.413.69
29 October 20044.373.69
5 November 20044.163.76
12 November 20043.873.65
19 November 20043.823.60
26 November 20043.683.49
3 December 20043.713.56
10 December 20043.863.73
17 December 20043.853.68
24 December 20043.753.62
31 December 20043.653.54
7 January 20053.663.49
14 January 20053.753.31
21 January 20053.763.25
28 January 20053.663.15
4 February 20053.623.13
11 February 20053.553.12
18 February 20053.433.00
25 February 20053.292.92
4 March 20053.202.86
11 March 20053.072.76
18 March 20053.242.71
25 March 20053.402.78
1 April 20053.772.88
8 April 20053.912.99
15 April 20053.922.97
22 April 20054.163.05
29 April 20053.983.02
6 May 20053.903.15
13 May 20053.763.16
20 May 20053.783.11
27 May 20053.733.11
3 June 20053.763.15
10 June 20053.693.14
17 June 20053.553.07
24 June 20053.543.06
1 July 20053.583.13
8 July 20053.533.20
15 July 20053.403.19
22 July 20053.283.08
29 July 20053.253.05
5 August 20053.313.08
12 August 20053.243.02
19 August 20053.333.05
26 August 20053.403.08
2 September 20053.513.16
9 September 20053.433.13
16 September 20053.303.05
23 September 20053.203.03
30 September 20053.072.98
7 October 20053.062.95
14 October 20053.162.90
21 October 20053.292.88
28 October 20053.222.82
4 November 20053.252.73
11 November 20053.272.69
18 November 20053.322.68
25 November 20053.372.66
2 December 20053.312.59
9 December 20053.232.58
16 December 20053.212.60
23 December 20053.212.59
30 December 20053.252.61
6 January 20063.132.62
13 January 20063.002.57
20 January 20063.042.60
27 January 20062.922.51
3 February 20062.892.43
10 February 20062.802.35
17 February 20062.672.33
24 February 20062.642.31
3 March 20062.542.26
10 March 20062.522.26
17 March 20062.682.31
24 March 20062.642.28
31 March 20062.642.23
7 April 20062.642.29
14 April 20062.672.27
21 April 20062.642.25
28 April 20062.602.24
5 May 20062.592.29
12 May 20062.562.21
19 May 20062.772.26
26 May 20063.032.40
2 June 20063.172.76
9 June 20063.223.14
16 June 20063.193.22
23 June 20063.053.09
30 June 20063.223.17
7 July 20063.223.16
14 July 20063.133.16
21 July 20063.043.20
28 July 20062.933.18
4 August 20063.273.18
11 August 20063.163.14
18 August 20063.133.17
25 August 20063.163.18
1 September 20063.263.15
8 September 20063.293.11
15 September 20063.303.10
22 September 20063.373.18
29 September 20063.513.25
6 October 20063.553.24
13 October 20063.323.07
20 October 20063.283.01
27 October 20063.262.98
3 November 20063.413.02
10 November 20063.362.96
17 November 20063.312.91
24 November 20063.392.91
1 December 20063.513.02
8 December 20063.573.06
15 December 20063.412.98
22 December 20063.332.95
29 December 20063.222.84
5 January 20073.233.16
12 January 20073.193.13
19 January 20073.143.08
26 January 20073.102.99
2 February 20073.113.04
9 February 20073.133.05
16 February 20073.063.06
23 February 20073.083.09
2 March 20073.313.26
9 March 20073.443.39
16 March 20073.393.36
23 March 20073.333.28
30 March 20073.203.19
6 April 20073.113.12
13 April 20072.983.01
20 April 20073.013.02
27 April 20073.002.99
4 May 20073.093.04
11 May 20073.103.02
18 May 20073.032.92
25 May 20072.902.82
1 June 20072.902.78
8 June 20072.882.72
15 June 20072.962.66
22 June 20073.002.71
29 June 20073.202.83
6 July 20073.202.94
13 July 20073.212.96
20 July 20073.253.03
27 July 20073.743.28
3 August 20074.243.74
10 August 20074.263.69
17 August 20074.723.94
24 August 20074.934.38
31 August 20074.964.33
7 September 20075.034.42
14 September 20075.024.42
21 September 20074.534.12
28 September 20074.384.00
5 October 20074.434.01
12 October 20074.213.79
19 October 20074.253.87
26 October 20074.504.00
2 November 20074.464.01
9 November 20074.764.26
16 November 20075.044.44
23 November 20075.544.72
30 November 20075.785.00
7 December 20075.715.14
14 December 20075.524.99
21 December 20075.574.99
28 December 20075.394.88
4 January 20085.695.10
11 January 20085.865.46
18 January 20086.095.70
25 January 20086.375.96
1 February 20086.255.94
8 February 20086.366.02
15 February 20086.326.04
22 February 20086.185.95
29 February 20086.236.03
7 March 20086.666.25
14 March 20086.816.39
21 March 20087.066.61
28 March 20086.886.43
4 April 20086.846.50
11 April 20086.746.48
18 April 20086.506.37
25 April 20086.196.09
2 May 20086.206.07
9 May 20086.246.03
16 May 20086.205.94
23 May 20086.145.83
30 May 20085.895.69
6 June 20085.995.89
13 June 20085.675.67
20 June 20085.635.70
27 June 20085.925.97
4 July 20087.086.31
11 July 20087.386.59
18 July 20087.506.47
25 July 20087.306.27
1 August 20087.506.35
8 August 20087.696.40
15 August 20087.966.42
22 August 20088.036.57
29 August 20087.956.64
5 September 20087.976.76
12 September 20088.266.89
19 September 20089.157.39
26 September 20089.077.68
3 October 200810.188.46
10 October 200811.589.73
17 October 200812.8511.13
24 October 200815.5313.78
31 October 200818.0519.53
7 November 200818.0619.85
14 November 200819.1919.65
21 November 200819.7620.65
28 November 200819.6420.83
5 December 200820.3021.94
12 December 200820.1822.11
19 December 200819.9322.67
26 December 200819.0022.60
2 January 200918.8122.16
9 January 200918.0721.40
16 January 200917.5220.73
23 January 200917.4320.16
30 January 200916.8819.78
6 February 200916.7320.11
13 February 200916.7019.45
20 February 200916.4819.48
27 February 200916.3219.70
6 March 200916.8520.47
13 March 200917.1420.28
20 March 200917.0720.01
27 March 200916.6919.47
3 April 200916.8220.30
10 April 200916.2419.99
17 April 200915.4619.66
24 April 200915.1619.27
1 May 200914.8318.66
8 May 200914.4917.48
15 May 200914.1617.35
22 May 200913.7917.10
29 May 200913.4716.43
5 June 200912.2613.47
12 June 200911.4212.84
19 June 200911.5013.14
26 June 200911.7313.37
3 July 200911.8312.74
10 July 200911.9412.87
17 July 200911.7512.48
24 July 200911.5311.50
31 July 200911.1110.79
7 August 200910.518.46
14 August 200910.368.43
21 August 200910.508.56
28 August 200910.348.48
4 September 200910.368.20
11 September 200910.197.99
18 September 20099.627.59
25 September 20099.357.44
2 October 20099.407.60
9 October 20099.167.50
16 October 20098.737.24
23 October 20098.777.15
30 October 20098.697.36
6 November 20099.207.52
13 November 20099.277.46
20 November 20099.357.54
27 November 20099.407.45
4 December 200910.377.54
11 December 200910.187.33
18 December 20099.827.22
25 December 20099.616.97
1 January 20109.606.68
8 January 20109.486.65
15 January 20108.886.70
22 January 20109.196.72
29 January 20109.466.70
5 February 20109.446.64
12 February 20109.576.76
19 February 20109.466.72
26 February 20109.416.66
5 March 20109.206.22
12 March 20108.935.92
19 March 20108.645.62
26 March 20108.455.44
2 April 20108.475.30
9 April 20108.165.14
16 April 20107.865.03
23 April 20107.735.01
30 April 20107.665.01
7 May 20108.405.37
14 May 20108.805.49
21 May 20109.265.77
28 May 20109.766.12
4 June 20109.796.27
11 June 201010.066.34
18 June 20109.766.10
25 June 20109.596.01
2 July 20109.896.26
9 July 20109.916.21
16 July 20109.665.95
23 July 20109.605.94
30 July 20109.335.72
6 August 20109.075.83
13 August 20109.175.73
20 August 20109.225.47
27 August 20109.405.43
3 September 20109.565.62
10 September 20109.545.56
17 September 20109.545.63
24 September 20109.445.70
1 October 20109.345.60
8 October 20109.305.50
15 October 20108.945.35
22 October 20109.095.42
29 October 20108.865.34
5 November 20109.515.46
12 November 20109.385.29
19 November 20109.455.32
26 November 20109.575.39
3 December 20109.675.44

* Source: Merrill Lynch. U.S. dollar-denominated debt over five-year Treasury rate, composite BB- rating for Asia, B for Latin America.  Return to text

Middle-right panel
Policy Rates

Percent
Period China* Brazil Mexico Korea
1 January 20076.12NDNDND
2 January 20076.12NDND4.50
3 January 20076.1213.25ND4.50
24 January 20076.1213.00ND4.50
26 January 20076.1213.007.004.50
1 March 20076.3913.007.004.50
7 March 20076.3912.757.004.50
19 April 20076.3912.507.004.50
27 April 20076.3912.507.254.50
1 May 20076.5712.507.254.50
6 June 20076.5712.007.254.50
2 July 20076.8412.007.254.50
12 July 20076.8412.007.254.75
19 July 20076.8411.507.254.75
1 August 20077.0211.507.254.75
9 August 20077.0211.507.255.00
3 September 20077.2911.507.255.00
6 September 20077.2911.257.255.00
26 October 20077.2911.257.505.00
3 December 20077.4711.257.505.00
17 April 20087.4711.757.505.00
5 June 20087.4712.257.505.00
20 June 20087.4712.257.755.00
18 July 20087.4712.258.005.00
24 July 20087.4713.008.005.00
7 August 20087.4713.008.005.25
15 August 20087.4713.008.255.25
1 September 20087.2013.008.255.25
11 September 20087.2013.758.255.25
1 October 20086.6613.758.255.25
9 October 20086.6613.758.255.00
27 October 20086.6613.758.254.25
3 November 20085.5813.758.254.25
7 November 20085.5813.758.254.00
1 December 20085.3113.758.254.00
11 December 20085.3113.758.253.00
9 January 20095.3113.758.252.50
16 January 20095.3113.757.752.50
21 January 20095.3112.757.752.50
12 February 20095.3112.757.752.00
20 February 20095.3112.757.502.00
11 March 20095.3111.257.502.00
20 March 20095.3111.256.752.00
17 April 20095.3111.256.002.00
29 April 20095.3110.256.002.00
15 May 20095.3110.255.252.00
10 June 20095.319.255.252.00
19 June 20095.319.254.752.00
17 July 20095.319.254.502.00
22 July 20095.318.754.502.00
28 April 20105.319.504.502.00
9 June 20105.3110.254.502.00
9 July 20105.3110.254.502.25
21 July 20105.3110.754.502.25
1 October 20105.5610.754.502.25
16 November 20105.5610.754.502.50
1 December 20105.8110.754.502.50
3 January 20116.0610.754.502.50
13 January 20116.0610.754.502.75
19 January 20116.0611.254.502.75
Forecast
25 January 20116.0611.504.502.75
26 January 20116.0611.504.503.00
1 April 20116.3112.004.503.25
1 July 20116.5612.254.503.50
3 October 20116.5612.504.503.50
2 January 20126.8112.504.753.50
2 April 20126.8112.505.253.50
2 July 20127.0612.256.003.50
1 October 20127.0612.006.003.50
31 December 20127.0612.006.003.50

* Rate for China is the one-year lending rate.  Return to table

Bottom-left panel
Emerging Market CPI

12-month percent change
Period Headline CPI Excluding food
January 20064.955.79
February 20064.625.59
March 20064.395.54
April 20064.445.60
May 20064.575.76
June 20064.665.82
July 20064.525.87
August 20064.615.78
September 20064.595.51
October 20064.185.03
November 20064.244.90
December 20064.594.91
January 20074.314.47
February 20074.484.66
March 20074.624.66
April 20074.504.50
May 20074.504.46
June 20074.814.41
July 20075.074.19
August 20075.344.12
September 20075.354.15
October 20075.794.32
November 20076.214.76
December 20076.144.82
January 20086.745.08
February 20087.525.21
March 20087.795.51
April 20088.165.68
May 20088.365.86
June 20088.776.60
July 20088.757.00
August 20088.226.96
September 20087.966.88
October 20087.636.63
November 20086.715.76
December 20085.864.99
January 20095.184.27
February 20093.823.88
March 20093.713.59
April 20093.263.30
May 20092.953.03
June 20092.262.42
July 20092.042.20
August 20092.402.42
September 20092.572.54
October 20092.572.75
November 20093.223.42
December 20094.044.17
January 20104.124.54
February 20104.794.81
March 20104.664.81
April 20104.955.05
May 20104.995.14
June 20104.845.01
July 20104.914.89
August 20104.934.78
September 20105.134.66
October 20105.494.67
November 20105.724.77
December 20105.75ND

Bottom-right panel
Commodity Prices

Period Oil import price
(Dollars per barrel)
Nonfuel index
(January 2008 = 100)
January 200753.1189.99
February 200752.6091.99
March 200756.2193.94
April 200760.9498.64
May 200764.1299.77
June 200765.3798.39
July 200769.0897.78
August 200770.2593.14
September 200770.4394.61
October 200774.6795.80
November 200781.9795.17
December 200784.0194.13
January 200885.42100.00
February 200885.69106.49
March 200891.58110.31
April 200898.90109.67
May 2008108.44108.20
June 2008118.63109.08
July 2008124.66109.68
August 2008118.62103.15
September 2008107.1197.78
October 200891.5382.99
November 200865.0076.26
December 200849.0170.01
January 200940.9170.90
February 200940.9269.10
March 200942.8768.69
April 200947.6972.26
May 200952.7276.21
June 200960.8679.16
July 200963.2679.84
August 200966.5384.64
September 200969.0883.62
October 200968.7084.84
November 200973.3687.94
December 200973.6791.18
January 201075.4992.47
February 201073.8790.36
March 201075.9893.51
April 201078.84100.23
May 201078.2695.28
June 201073.8793.02
July 201073.8097.13
August 201074.80101.77
September 201073.61104.71
October 201076.11108.69
November 201078.60111.63
December 201086.97116.50
Forecast
January 201188.38119.08
February 201188.70119.05
March 201189.21119.16
April 201189.76119.28
May 201190.46119.34
June 201190.98119.32
July 201191.29119.32
August 201191.45119.04
September 201191.63118.74
October 201191.83118.49
November 201192.00118.28
December 201192.14118.14
January 201292.16118.12
February 201292.14118.08
March 201292.11118.03
April 201292.07117.91
May 201292.04117.78
June 201292.01117.64
July 201291.93117.50
August 201291.84117.16
September 201291.76116.83
October 201291.70116.65
November 201291.67116.52
December 201291.69116.48

Exhibit 8
U.S. Trade Outlook

Top-left panel
Real Exports and Imports

Percent change, a.r.
Period Real exports Real imports
2008:Q15.72-1.42
2008:Q213.242.94
2008:Q3-5.01-0.11
2008:Q4-21.91-22.86
2009:Q1-27.76-35.26
2009:Q2-1.03-10.63
2009:Q312.1821.93
2009:Q424.364.92
2010:Q111.3711.21
2010:Q29.1233.46
2010:Q36.7616.81
Forecast
2010:Q48.90-13.82
2011:Q110.149.32
2011:Q29.088.80
2011:Q38.698.26
2011:Q48.780.75
2012:Q18.884.98
2012:Q28.595.81
2012:Q38.447.48
2012:Q48.495.62

Top-right panel
Contribution of Net Exports to Real GDP Growth

Period Percentage points, a.r.
2009:H12.2
2009:H20.3
2010:Q1-0.3
2010:Q2-3.5
2010:Q3-1.7
Forecast
2010:Q43.5
20110.1
20120.2

[Data are approximate.]

Middle-left panel
Imports and Industrial Production*

Industrial production
(percent change, a.r.)**
Change in import penetration
(percentage points)**
-2.430.11
-0.920.50
-0.351.10
0.890.55
2.70-0.02
3.081.05
3.290.67
3.330.09
3.370.45
3.921.28
4.800.31
5.341.24
6.090.17
9.510.76
9.710.41
10.431.56
13.170.73
14.560.65
15.472.13
16.081.07
30.340.39

[As shown in the chart, a trend line begins at about (-10,0.45) and ends at about (35,1.2).]

* 21 disaggregated manufacturing sectors.  Return to text

** From 2009:Q2 to 2010:Q3.  Return to table

Middle-right panel
Real Core Exports and Imports*

Billions of chained (2005) dollars, a.r.
Period Exports:
Actual
Exports:
Model solution
Imports:
Actual
Imports:
Model solution
2008:Q11022.671010.811382.991364.50
2008:Q21056.651021.811391.281352.77
2008:Q31051.691031.831364.881322.56
2008:Q4976.251018.061248.431269.28
2009:Q1878.97987.491080.331224.67
2009:Q2870.93999.291035.391211.00
2009:Q3909.021018.071099.201221.69
2009:Q4969.451038.881151.841252.89
2010:Q1999.191060.071193.841286.06
2010:Q21021.391080.491278.551304.36
2010:Q31041.121087.741326.201315.52
Forecast
2010:Q41070.651099.871312.891329.23
2011:Q11098.731114.771339.221344.29
2011:Q21125.251133.341359.041360.85
2011:Q31150.831156.331376.891378.81
2011:Q41177.231182.901396.571398.44
2012:Q11204.251210.111416.891418.84
2012:Q21230.531236.591438.071440.43
2012:Q31256.861263.121461.991464.38
2012:Q41283.971290.431489.161491.22

* Core exports exclude computers, semiconductors, and services. Core imports also exclude petroleum and natural gas.  Return to text

Bottom-left panel
Broad Real Dollar

Period Index, 2008:Q1 = 100
2000:Q1117.52
2000:Q2120.45
2000:Q3121.91
2000:Q4125.10
2001:Q1126.27
2001:Q2128.84
2001:Q3128.39
2001:Q4128.86
2002:Q1130.74
2002:Q2128.69
2002:Q3126.41
2002:Q4127.35
2003:Q1124.84
2003:Q2120.19
2003:Q3120.49
2003:Q4116.61
2004:Q1114.62
2004:Q2117.29
2004:Q3116.32
2004:Q4112.46
2005:Q1111.35
2005:Q2112.78
2005:Q3113.96
2005:Q4115.13
2006:Q1113.42
2006:Q2112.08
2006:Q3112.08
2006:Q4110.30
2007:Q1110.26
2007:Q2108.11
2007:Q3105.88
2007:Q4102.22
2008:Q1100.00
2008:Q298.32
2008:Q3100.87
2008:Q4109.13
2009:Q1111.47
2009:Q2107.50
2009:Q3104.45
2009:Q4101.57
2010:Q1102.46
2010:Q2103.44
2010:Q3102.03
2010:Q498.29
Forecast
2011:Q197.31
2011:Q296.46
2011:Q395.76
2011:Q495.01
2012:Q194.17
2012:Q293.26
2012:Q392.37
2012:Q491.47

Bottom-right panel
Current Account Balance

Period Percent of GDP
2001:Q1-4.22
2001:Q2-3.78
2001:Q3-4.05
2001:Q4-3.39
2002:Q1-3.96
2002:Q2-4.35
2002:Q3-4.33
2002:Q4-4.57
2003:Q1-4.96
2003:Q2-4.73
2003:Q3-4.62
2003:Q4-4.41
2004:Q1-4.71
2004:Q2-5.29
2004:Q3-5.31
2004:Q4-5.91
2005:Q1-5.64
2005:Q2-5.72
2005:Q3-5.81
2005:Q4-6.48
2006:Q1-6.01
2006:Q2-6.04
2006:Q3-6.38
2006:Q4-5.54
2007:Q1-5.74
2007:Q2-5.47
2007:Q3-4.83
2007:Q4-4.41
2008:Q1-4.80
2008:Q2-4.89
2008:Q3-4.76
2008:Q4-4.16
2009:Q1-2.72
2009:Q2-2.41
2009:Q3-2.76
2009:Q4-2.83
2010:Q1-3.02
2010:Q2-3.38
2010:Q3-3.45
Forecast
2010:Q4-3.10
2011:Q1-3.34
2011:Q2-3.33
2011:Q3-3.40
2011:Q4-3.11
2012:Q1-3.05
2012:Q2-2.87
2012:Q3-2.86
2012:Q4-2.71

Exhibit 9
Financial Market Developments

Top-left panel
Treasury and Corporate Rates

Daily
Percent
Date 10-year Treasury note 10-year Corporate BBB
4 January 20103.855.97
5 January 20103.775.86
6 January 20103.855.88
7 January 20103.855.87
8 January 20103.835.84
11 January 20103.855.85
12 January 20103.745.75
13 January 20103.805.81
14 January 20103.765.75
15 January 20103.705.71
18 January 2010NDND
19 January 20103.735.75
20 January 20103.685.71
21 January 20103.625.67
22 January 20103.625.68
25 January 20103.665.73
26 January 20103.655.74
27 January 20103.665.75
28 January 20103.685.78
29 January 20103.635.72
1 February 20103.685.79
2 February 20103.675.76
3 February 20103.735.82
4 February 20103.625.76
5 February 20103.595.72
8 February 20103.625.77
9 February 20103.675.83
10 February 20103.725.91
11 February 20103.735.92
12 February 20103.695.89
15 February 2010NDND
16 February 20103.665.87
17 February 20103.745.95
18 February 20103.795.97
19 February 20103.785.93
22 February 20103.805.94
23 February 20103.695.82
24 February 20103.705.83
25 February 20103.645.78
26 February 20103.615.72
1 March 20103.615.68
2 March 20103.625.62
3 March 20103.635.73
4 March 20103.615.70
5 March 20103.695.76
8 March 20103.725.76
9 March 20103.715.74
10 March 20103.735.75
11 March 20103.735.74
12 March 20103.715.73
15 March 20103.715.72
16 March 20103.665.66
17 March 20103.655.65
18 March 20103.685.67
19 March 20103.705.67
22 March 20103.675.65
23 March 20103.695.66
24 March 20103.845.80
25 March 20103.915.85
26 March 20103.865.81
29 March 20103.885.81
30 March 20103.885.81
31 March 20103.845.76
1 April 20103.895.77
2 April 20103.96ND
5 April 20104.015.83
6 April 20103.985.83
7 April 20103.895.71
8 April 20103.915.74
9 April 20103.905.73
12 April 20103.875.66
13 April 20103.845.64
14 April 20103.885.69
15 April 20103.865.64
16 April 20103.795.58
19 April 20103.835.60
20 April 20103.825.59
21 April 20103.775.53
22 April 20103.805.55
23 April 20103.845.61
26 April 20103.835.59
27 April 20103.715.50
28 April 20103.805.58
29 April 20103.765.53
30 April 20103.695.46
3 May 20103.725.52
4 May 20103.635.43
5 May 20103.585.40
6 May 20103.415.33
7 May 20103.455.47
10 May 20103.575.52
11 May 20103.565.57
12 May 20103.565.56
13 May 20103.555.52
14 May 20103.445.47
17 May 20103.475.49
18 May 20103.385.48
19 May 20103.365.39
20 May 20103.255.42
21 May 20103.205.39
24 May 20103.235.41
25 May 20103.185.46
26 May 20103.215.47
27 May 20103.345.59
28 May 20103.315.55
31 May 2010NDND
1 June 20103.295.58
2 June 20103.355.64
3 June 20103.395.66
4 June 20103.205.47
7 June 20103.175.56
8 June 20103.185.57
9 June 20103.205.60
10 June 20103.335.70
11 June 20103.245.60
14 June 20103.285.71
15 June 20103.325.67
16 June 20103.275.61
17 June 20103.215.53
18 June 20103.245.60
21 June 20103.265.59
22 June 20103.185.52
23 June 20103.135.44
24 June 20103.145.55
25 June 20103.125.44
28 June 20103.055.37
29 June 20102.975.33
30 June 20102.975.30
1 July 20102.965.29
2 July 20103.005.49
5 July 2010NDND
6 July 20102.955.29
7 July 20103.005.36
8 July 20103.045.44
9 July 20103.075.47
12 July 20103.085.41
13 July 20103.155.42
14 July 20103.075.40
15 July 20103.005.28
16 July 20102.965.38
19 July 20102.995.39
20 July 20102.985.25
21 July 20102.905.19
22 July 20102.965.18
23 July 20103.025.27
26 July 20103.035.19
27 July 20103.085.24
28 July 20103.035.16
29 July 20103.035.17
30 July 20102.945.08
2 August 20102.995.15
3 August 20102.945.08
4 August 20102.985.10
5 August 20102.945.15
6 August 20102.865.07
9 August 20102.865.06
10 August 20102.795.05
11 August 20102.724.98
12 August 20102.745.01
13 August 20102.684.98
16 August 20102.584.88
17 August 20102.644.95
18 August 20102.644.92
19 August 20102.584.86
20 August 20102.624.89
23 August 20102.604.89
24 August 20102.504.80
25 August 20102.544.86
26 August 20102.504.83
27 August 20102.664.99
30 August 20102.544.90
31 August 20102.474.86
1 September 20102.584.96
2 September 20102.634.99
3 September 20102.725.04
6 September 2010NDND
7 September 20102.614.94
8 September 20102.664.99
9 September 20102.775.09
10 September 20102.815.09
13 September 20102.745.03
14 September 20102.684.96
15 September 20102.745.02
16 September 20102.775.05
17 September 20102.755.05
20 September 20102.725.01
21 September 20102.614.90
22 September 20102.564.87
23 September 20102.564.88
24 September 20102.624.92
27 September 20102.544.83
28 September 20102.484.78
29 September 20102.524.82
30 September 20102.534.76
1 October 20102.544.77
4 October 20102.504.74
5 October 20102.504.76
6 October 20102.414.67
7 October 20102.414.67
8 October 20102.414.64
11 October 2010NDND
12 October 20102.444.68
13 October 20102.464.68
14 October 20102.524.74
15 October 20102.594.82
18 October 20102.524.73
19 October 20102.504.71
20 October 20102.514.71
21 October 20102.574.76
22 October 20102.594.78
25 October 20102.594.77
26 October 20102.674.85
27 October 20102.754.91
28 October 20102.694.85
29 October 20102.634.79
1 November 20102.664.80
2 November 20102.634.75
3 November 20102.674.77
4 November 20102.534.61
5 November 20102.584.65
8 November 20102.604.67
9 November 20102.724.78
10 November 20102.654.75
11 November 2010NDND
12 November 20102.764.88
15 November 20102.925.07
16 November 20102.855.02
17 November 20102.895.06
18 November 20102.905.08
19 November 20102.885.05
22 November 20102.804.99
23 November 20102.774.96
24 November 20102.935.10
25 November 2010NDND
26 November 20102.875.05
29 November 20102.845.04
30 November 20102.815.03
1 December 20102.975.20
2 December 20103.015.23
3 December 20103.035.23
6 December 20102.955.14
7 December 20103.155.35
8 December 20103.265.42
9 December 20103.235.40
10 December 20103.325.45
13 December 20103.295.43
14 December 20103.495.58
15 December 20103.535.63
16 December 20103.475.60
17 December 20103.335.47
20 December 20103.365.49
21 December 20103.355.46
22 December 20103.365.47
23 December 20103.415.51
24 December 2010NDND
27 December 20103.365.47
28 December 20103.505.58
29 December 20103.355.41
30 December 20103.385.43
31 December 20103.305.36
3 January 20113.365.39
4 January 20113.365.39
5 January 20113.505.50
6 January 20113.445.43
7 January 20113.345.36
10 January 20113.325.34
11 January 20113.375.36
12 January 20113.405.36
13 January 20113.345.33
14 January 20113.355.36
17 January 2011NDND
18 January 20113.395.38
19 January 20113.375.35
20 January 20113.475.46
21 January 20113.445.42
24 January 20113.435.40

Top-right panel
Near- and Far-term Forward Spreads for BBB Bonds*

Weekly
Percentage points
Period Near-term Far-term
14 January 19980.981.13
21 January 1998NDND
28 January 19980.961.18
4 February 19981.021.21
11 February 19981.011.21
18 February 1998NDND
25 February 19980.971.19
4 March 19980.941.24
11 March 19980.941.23
18 March 19980.961.21
25 March 19980.951.22
1 April 19980.911.26
8 April 19980.931.21
15 April 1998NDND
22 April 19980.951.17
29 April 19980.931.18
6 May 19980.941.18
13 May 19980.951.20
20 May 19980.921.20
27 May 1998NDND
3 June 19980.961.28
10 June 19980.971.33
17 June 19981.001.34
24 June 19981.001.35
1 July 19980.981.37
8 July 1998NDND
15 July 19980.981.36
22 July 19980.991.35
29 July 19980.971.37
5 August 19981.021.50
12 August 19981.051.54
19 August 19981.071.57
26 August 19981.151.56
2 September 19981.491.90
9 September 1998NDND
16 September 19981.721.83
23 September 19981.731.75
30 September 19981.721.75
7 October 19981.841.72
14 October 1998NDND
21 October 19981.861.68
28 October 19981.841.80
4 November 19982.021.78
11 November 1998NDND
18 November 19981.921.97
25 November 19981.871.99
2 December 1998NDND
9 December 19981.711.79
16 December 19981.721.80
23 December 19981.771.70
30 December 1998ND