Finance and Economics Discussion Series: 2009-45 Screen Reader version ♣
Household Response to the 2008 Tax Rebates:
Survey Evidence and Aggregate Implications
Figure Data
Figure 1: Distribution of the 2008 Tax Rebates
| April | May | June | July | Aug-Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rebate Income | 2 | 48 | 28 | 14 | 4 |
Figure 2: Contribution of Rebates to Change in Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Survey-Based Estimates of Aggregate Rebate Spending
Survey-Based Estimates of Aggregate Rebate Spending
| Baseline Estimate | Upper Bound Estimate | Lower Bound Estimate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008Q2 | 2.41 | 3.08 | 1.64 |
| 2008Q3 | -0.28 | 0.14 | -0.62 |
| 2008Q4 | -1.72 | -1.28 | -2.22 |
| 2009Q1 | -0.35 | -0.21 | -0.46 |
Figure 3: Personal Saving Rate: Actual and Counterfactuals
| Year | Actual Saving Rate | Removes Rebate Income | Removes Rebate Income and Spending | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | '08 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Feb | '08 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Mar | '08 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| April | '08 | 0.80 | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| May | '08 | 5.80 | 0.66 | 1.37 |
| June | '08 | 3.50 | 0.47 | 1.40 |
| July | '08 | 2.60 | 1.10 | 1.89 |
| Aug | '08 | 1.70 | 1.59 | 2.06 |
| Sept | '08 | 2.20 | 2.13 | 2.36 |
| Oct | '08 | 2.90 | 2.79 | 2.93 |
| Nov | '08 | 3.80 | 3.68 | 3.77 |
| Dec | '08 | 4.70 | 4.68 | 4.72 |
| Jan | '09 | 4.40 | 4.40 | 4.42 |
Figure 4: Ratio of Revolving Consumer Credit to Spending in Recessions
| 2008 | 2008 Counterfactual (No Rebates) | 2001 | 1990 | 1974 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -8 Quarters since NBER Peak | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.88 |
| -7 Quarters since NBER Peak | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.86 |
| -6 Quarters since NBER Peak | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.95 | 0.90 | 0.89 |
| -5 Quarters since NBER Peak | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.94 | 0.91 | 0.92 |
| -4 Quarters since NBER Peak | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.94 | 0.92 | 0.90 |
| -3 Quarters since NBER Peak | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.90 |
| -2 Quarters since NBER Peak | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.95 |
| -1 Quarters since NBER Peak | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| 0 Quarters since NBER Peak | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 1 Quarters since NBER Peak | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.98 |
| 2 Quarters since NBER Peak | 1.01 | 1.05 | 1.00 | 1.04 | 1.03 |
| 3 Quarters since NBER Peak | 1.02 | 1.05 | 0.99 | 1.05 | 1.08 |
| 4 Quarters since NBER Peak | 1.02 | 1.05 | 0.99 | 1.07 | 1.06 |
| 5 Quarters since NBER Peak | 1.00 | 1.02 | 1.00 | 1.08 | 1.03 |
| 6 Quarters since NBER Peak | 0.97 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.06 | 1.03 |
| 7 Quarters since NBER Peak | 1.00 | 1.07 | 1.07 | ||
| 8 Quarters since NBER Peak | 1.00 | 1.06 | 1.04 |
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